tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/solar-photovoltaics-17475/articlesSolar photovoltaics – The Conversation2023-08-03T20:03:02Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105572023-08-03T20:03:02Z2023-08-03T20:03:02Z‘Limitless’ energy: how floating solar panels near the equator could power future population hotspots<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540935/original/file-20230803-17-ypizoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C4%2C992%2C660&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-top-view-solar-panels-cells-1924116725">Tavarius, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Vast arrays of solar panels floating on calm seas near the Equator could provide effectively unlimited solar energy to densely populated countries in Southeast Asia and West Africa.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2673-9941/3/3/23">new research</a> shows offshore solar in Indonesia alone could generate about 35,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of solar energy a year, which is similar to current global electricity production (<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix">30,000TWh per year</a>). </p>
<p>And while most of the world’s oceans experience storms, some regions at the Equator are relatively still and peaceful. So relatively inexpensive engineering structures could suffice to protect offshore floating solar panels.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/offshore_solar_atlas/">high-resolution global heat maps</a> show the Indonesian archipelago and equatorial West Africa near Nigeria have the greatest potential for offshore floating solar arrays. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A heatmap showing the best locations for floating solar panels, away from tropical storm tracks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heatmap for offshore floating solar panels. Red areas are best, followed by yellow, green and dark blue. The grey lines show tropical storm tracks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author-supplied, using OpenStreetMap base</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">Despairing about climate change? These 4 charts on the unstoppable growth of solar may change your mind</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Solar power rules by mid-century</h2>
<p>On current trends, the global economy will be largely decarbonised and electrified by 2050, supported by <a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">vast amounts of solar and wind energy</a>. </p>
<p>About 70 square kilometres of solar panels can provide all the energy requirements of a million affluent people in a zero-carbon economy. The panels can be placed on rooftops, in arid areas, colocated with agriculture, or floated on water bodies. </p>
<p>But countries with high population densities, such as <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/population/most-populous-countries/">Nigeria and Indonesia</a>, will have limited space for solar energy harvesting.</p>
<p>Their tropical location in the so-called “doldrum” latitudes also means wind resources are poor. Fortunately, these countries – and their neighbours – can harvest effectively unlimited energy from solar panels floating on calm equatorial seas. </p>
<p>Floating solar panels can also be placed on inland lakes and reservoirs. <a href="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2023/03/23/global-study-highlights-potential-of-floating-solar/">Inland floating solar</a> has large potential and is already growing rapidly. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2673-9941/3/3/23">recently released paper</a> surveys the global oceans to find regions that didn’t experience large waves or strong winds over the past 40 years. Floating solar panels in such regions do not require strong and expensive engineering defences. </p>
<p>Regions that don’t experience waves larger than 6 metres nor winds stronger than 15m per second could generate up to one million TWh per year. That’s about five times more annual energy than is needed for a fully decarbonised global economy supporting 10 billion affluent people. </p>
<p>Most of the good sites are close to the Equator, in and around Indonesia and equatorial west Africa. These are regions of high population growth and high environmental values. Marine floating solar panels could help resolve land use conflict. </p>
<h2>Indonesia has vast solar energy potential</h2>
<p>Indonesia is a densely populated country, particularly on the islands of Java, Bali and Sumatra. By mid-century, Indonesia’s population may exceed <a href="https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/data/IDN">315 million people</a>. </p>
<p>Fortunately, Indonesia has <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/17/5424">vast solar energy potential</a> and also vast <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/9/3457">pumped hydro energy storage potential</a> to store the solar energy overnight. </p>
<p>About 25,000 square km of solar panels would be required to support an affluent Indonesia after full decarbonisation of the economy using solar power. </p>
<p>Indonesia has the option of floating vast numbers of solar panels on its calm inland seas. The region has about 140,000 square km of seascape that has not experienced waves larger than 4m – nor winds stronger than 10m per second – in the past 40 years. </p>
<p>Indonesia’s maritime area of 6.4 million square km is 200 times larger than required if Indonesia’s entire <a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesia-could-harvest-solar-energy-from-10-billion-panels-so-where-do-we-put-them-167299">future energy needs</a> were met from offshore floating solar panels. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A heatmap showing the best locations for floating solar panels, away from tropical storm tracks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heatmap for offshore floating solar panels in Indonesia. Red areas are best, followed by yellow, green and dark blue. The grey lines show tropical storm tracks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author-supplied, using OpenStreetMap base</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The future for offshore floating solar</h2>
<p>Most of the global seascape experiences waves larger than 10m and winds stronger than 20m per second. Several companies are working to develop engineering defences so offshore floating panels can tolerate storms. In contrast, benign maritime environments along the equator require much less robust and expensive defences. </p>
<p>We have found the most suitable regions cluster within 5–12 degrees of latitude of the Equator, principally in and around the Indonesian archipelago and in the Gulf of Guinea near Nigeria. These regions have low potential for wind generation, high population density, rapid growth (in both population and energy consumption) and substantial intact ecosystems that should not be cleared for solar farms. Tropical storms rarely impact equatorial regions. </p>
<p>The offshore floating solar industry is in its infancy. Offshore solar panels do have downsides compared with onshore panels, including salt corrosion and marine fouling. Shallow seas are preferred for anchoring the panels to the seabed. And careful attention must be paid to minimising damage to the marine environment and fishing. Global warming may also alter wind and wave patterns.
Despite these challenges, we believe offshore floating panels will provide a large component of the energy mix for countries with access to calm equatorial seas. By mid-century, about a billion people in these countries will rely mostly on solar energy, which is causing the <a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">fastest energy change in history</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sunshine-by-day-water-by-night-indonesia-could-pair-its-vast-solar-and-hydro-storage-to-decarbonise-the-country-183219">Sunshine by day, water by night: Indonesia could pair its vast solar and hydro storage to decarbonise the country</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210557/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from ARENA, P4I and similar organisations</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Firnando Silalahi's ongoing PhD study is funded by the Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education (LPDP).</span></em></p>New research shows densely populated countries in Southeast Asia and West Africa could harvest effectively unlimited energy from solar panels floating on calm tropical seas near the equator.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityDavid Firnando Silalahi, Phd Candidate, School of Engineering, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1845372022-06-07T12:33:17Z2022-06-07T12:33:17ZBiden throws US solar installers a lifeline with tariff relief, but can incentives bring manufacturing back?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467360/original/file-20220607-12-mf3uyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C3000%2C1940&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. solar installations had been rising quickly until the threat of new tariffs darkened the 2022 outlook.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/roger-garbey-and-andres-hernandez-from-the-goldin-solar-news-photo/909389746">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Biden administration announced it was putting a two-year freeze on the threat of new solar tariffs, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/06/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-bold-executive-action-to-spur-domestic-clean-energy-manufacturing/">throwing a lifeline to U.S. solar installers</a> – and boosting the country’s ability to meet its climate goals.</em></p>
<p><em>The tariff threat involved imported solar panels and components from four Asian countries <a href="https://www.mcguirewoods.com/client-resources/Alerts/2022/4/us-department-commerce-investigation-solar-panel-imports-puts-solar-projects-risk">that supply about 80%</a> of photovoltaic cells and modules used in the U.S. The administration also announced new plans on June 6, 2022, to use the Defense Production Act to help industries ramp up production of solar panels in the U.S. and give U.S. solar manufacturers other incentives through federal purchasing.</em> </p>
<p><em>We asked energy researcher <a href="http://www.webberenergygroup.com/people/emily-beagle/">Emily Beagle</a> to explain the changes and the impact they could have.</em></p>
<h2>Part of President Joe Biden’s announcement is aimed at boosting US solar manufacturing. How large is that part of the industry today?</h2>
<p>In 2020, the entire U.S. solar industry employed over <a href="https://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/2021-05/National-Solar-Jobs-Census-2020-FINAL.pdf">231,000 people</a>. About 31,000 of those jobs – roughly 13% of all solar jobs – were in manufacturing. </p>
<p>Those jobs, including building solar panels and components, supported <a href="https://www.woodmac.com/news/editorial/whats-at-stake-for-clean-energy-in-the-us-election/">7.5 gigawatts</a> of manufacturing capacity in 2020. That’s a <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/despite-a-solar-deployment-hot-streak-homegrown-manufacturing-in-america-is-stalled">tiny fraction</a> of global manufacturing capacity.</p>
<p>Most of the rest of the U.S. solar workforce, 67% of it, worked in installation and development. And most of the cheap solar cells in the panels they installed came from Asia – specifically, about <a href="https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2022/04/27/solar-industry-says-46-of-u-s-projects-at-risk-00028064">80% of solar panel imports</a> came from the four Asian countries addressed in Biden’s order.</p>
<h2>What effect did the threat of new tariffs have on solar installations and Biden’s climate goals more broadly?</h2>
<p>The first silicon solar cells were <a href="https://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/200904/physicshistory.cfm">developed at Bell Labs in the U.S. in the 1940s and 1950s</a>, and the U.S. was an early manufacturing leader. But overseas competition and differing energy and research priorities and policies <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-understand-why-biden-extended-tariffs-on-solar-panels-take-a-closer-look-at-their-historical-impact-177528">drove much of the industry out</a>. China has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/29/climate/solar-industry-imports.html">dominated solar manufacturing</a> for the past decade.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467361/original/file-20220607-26-56mjcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two women in clean-suits, caps and gloves bend over a table with solar modules." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467361/original/file-20220607-26-56mjcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467361/original/file-20220607-26-56mjcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467361/original/file-20220607-26-56mjcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467361/original/file-20220607-26-56mjcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467361/original/file-20220607-26-56mjcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467361/original/file-20220607-26-56mjcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467361/original/file-20220607-26-56mjcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most solar cells and modules are currently manufactured overseas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/employees-work-on-the-production-line-of-solar-panel-at-a-news-photo/1311503663">Si Wei/VCG via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In recent years, the federal government has put <a href="https://www.snl.com/articles/412799530.png">tariffs on solar imports</a> to try to boost growth of U.S. manufacturing. The tariffs raised some prices but didn’t stop the growth of solar installations. Then the U.S. Commerce Department announced in March 2022, that it had opened an <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2022-04-01/pdf/2022-06827.pdf">investigation into solar imports</a> from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. The issue was whether solar components from China – which faced tariffs – were being routed through those countries. If the investigation led to new tariffs, the Commerce Department could make them retroactive, significantly raising the cost for U.S. buyers.</p>
<p>That threat cut the U.S. solar installation forecasts for 2022 and 2023 by 46%, according to the <a href="https://www.seia.org/news/tariff-case-cuts-solar-deployment-forecasts-nearly-half-100000-jobs-risk">Solar Energy Industries Association</a>. </p>
<p>Over 300 projects have been delayed or canceled since the case was brought forward. These canceled or delayed projects account for 51 gigawatts of solar capacity and 6 gigawatt-hours of attached battery storage capacity. That would be more than double <a href="https://www.seia.org/us-solar-market-insight">all the solar capacity installed in the U.S. in 2021</a>, which was <a href="https://www.seia.org/us-solar-market-insight">23.6 gigawatts</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="lgF5F" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lgF5F/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Rapid installation of solar power to reduce emissions from the electricity sector is a key pillar of the Biden administration’s climate goals. To stay aligned with the administration’s climate target of <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/">reducing emissions 50%-52% by 2030</a>, the U.S. needs to install <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/US-Long-Term-Strategy.pdf">about 25 gigawatts</a> of new solar capacity each year for the next decade. Imposing tariffs could cause solar capacity to reach only 70%-80% of that goal.</p>
<h2>Can Biden’s order to use the Defense Production Act and provide other support give US manufacturing enough of a boost to succeed?</h2>
<p>Biden’s order does several important things to address the threat to the U.S. solar industry and expand other critical technologies to meet the administration’s climate goals. </p>
<p>In the short term, the order addresses the solar tariff threat by temporarily allowing solar imports from specific countries. Specifically, this 24-month “bridge” allows U.S. solar deployers to purchase solar parts from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam free of certain duties. </p>
<p>This is important for the Biden administration’s climate goals because it will help ensure that the U.S. has the solar components it needs in the immediate term to continue building out new solar capacity while domestic production ramps up. </p>
<p>The president is also authorizing use of the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/disaster/defense-production-act">Defense Production Act</a> not only to expand U.S. domestic manufacturing of solar panel components, but also to boost several other critical climate technologies, including building insulation, heat pumps, clean hydrogen and power grid infrastructure.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467355/original/file-20220607-14-ib0q2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Workers prepare solar-paneled roofs on two new homes in a neighborhood with other homes with solar roofs in behind them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467355/original/file-20220607-14-ib0q2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467355/original/file-20220607-14-ib0q2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467355/original/file-20220607-14-ib0q2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467355/original/file-20220607-14-ib0q2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467355/original/file-20220607-14-ib0q2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467355/original/file-20220607-14-ib0q2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467355/original/file-20220607-14-ib0q2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">California now requires most new homes to be solar-ready, but the cost of the system and how soon it will pay off is an important concern.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/workers-install-solar-panels-on-the-roofs-of-homes-under-news-photo/957099636">Will Lester/Inland Valley Daily Bulletin via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another important part of that order is the use of federal procurement provisions to give U.S. solar manufacturers a market.</p>
<p>Federal procurement provisions, such as <a href="https://www.tradecommissioner.gc.ca/sell2usgov-vendreaugouvusa/procurement-marches/buyamerica.aspx">Buy American</a>, use the vast purchasing power of the federal government to create demand for U.S. manufactured goods. The procurement provisions in Biden’s order, including master supply agreements and “super preferences,” will provide certainty and a guaranteed buyer – the federal government – for new solar products manufactured here in the U.S.</p>
<p>While a step in the right direction, whether the new efforts will be able to build up the U.S. solar manufacturing industry and make it competitive remains to be seen. The greatest potential impact to address not only challenges in the solar industry but U.S. climate goals more broadly lies with Congress, which could still pass historic climate legislation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184537/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily A. Beagle receives funding from DOE. </span></em></p>Only 13% of US solar industry jobs are currently in manufacturing. The Biden administration hopes the sector will grow fast, but that might not be so simple.Emily A. Beagle, Research Associate in Energy Systems, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1579872021-04-13T11:29:03Z2021-04-13T11:29:03ZFloating solar farms could cool down lakes threatened by climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394308/original/file-20210409-19-7tdcx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4031%2C2268&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The future of solar energy?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Giles Exley</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Solar power is now the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">cheapest source of electricity in history</a>, according to a <a href="https://webstore.iea.org/world-energy-outlook-2020">2020 report</a> by the International Energy Agency. But there’s something holding this clean energy powerhouse back: space. Unlike fossil fuel power stations, solar farms need a lot of room to generate enough electricity to keep up with demand. Most solar farms are composed of ground-mounted panels that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0309-z">take up land</a> that could be used to grow food or provide habitat for wildlife.</p>
<p>Although electricity and water don’t usually mix, a growing number of <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/19/8154">floating solar farms</a> are being deployed worldwide. Floating solar panels on a lake or reservoir might sound like an accident waiting to happen, but recent studies have shown the technology <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X20311853">generates more electricity</a> compared with rooftop or ground-mounted solar installations. This is thanks to the cooling effect of the water beneath the panels, which can boost how efficiently these systems generate electricity by as much as <a href="https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1049/iet-rpg.2015.0120">12.5%</a>.</p>
<p>That said, lakes and reservoirs are already very important for people and the planet. While these freshwater bodies cover less than 1% of Earth’s surface, they nurture almost <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1017/S1464793105006950">6% of its biodiversity</a> and provide drinking water and crop irrigation that’s vital to billions of people. Worryingly, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-0067-5">climate change</a> has raised the surface temperatures of lakes globally by an average of <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL066235">0.34°C per decade since 1985</a>, encouraging <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/320/5872/57?ijkey=42eb549c22938ef3ce5a0daec395d340e1bd6748&amp;keytype2=tf_ipsecsha">toxic algal blooms</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0114-8">lowering water levels</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0322-x">preventing water mixing</a> between the distinct layers which naturally form in larger and deeper lakes, starving the depths of oxygen.</p>
<p>In the rush to decarbonise energy in order to slow global warming, might turning to floating solar farms simply add to the strain on the world’s precious freshwater reserves? Remarkably, in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X2100116X">new research</a>, we found that carefully designed floating solar farms could actually reduce the threats posed by climate change to lakes and reservoirs.</p>
<h2>A buffer against warming</h2>
<p>Along with colleagues, I used a computer model to simulate how floating solar farms are likely to affect lake water temperatures. Our simulations are based on Windermere, the largest lake in England and one of the most <a href="https://www.ceh.ac.uk/our-science/monitoring-site/lake-observatories">well-studied</a> lakes in the world.</p>
<p>Floating solar farms reduce how much wind and sunlight reaches the lake’s surface, changing many of the processes that occur within. As each floating solar farm has a different design, we ran simulations to see how lake temperatures changed with over 10,000 unique combinations of wind speed and solar radiation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A raft of solar panels held in place on a reservoir's surface with a mooring rope." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394010/original/file-20210408-23-16423l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394010/original/file-20210408-23-16423l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394010/original/file-20210408-23-16423l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394010/original/file-20210408-23-16423l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394010/original/file-20210408-23-16423l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394010/original/file-20210408-23-16423l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394010/original/file-20210408-23-16423l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A floating solar farm generating electricity for a water treatment works at a reservoir in north-west England.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Giles Exley</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X2100116X">Our results</a> suggest that the changes to water temperatures caused by floating solar farms could be as big as climate change itself, only in the opposite direction.</p>
<p>A floating solar farm that reduces wind speed and solar radiation by 10% across the entire lake could offset a decade of warming from climate change. Designs that shaded the lake more than sheltered it, by reducing sunlight more than wind, had the greatest cooling effect. Evaporation fell and the lake was mixed more frequently, which helps oxygenate the deeper water.</p>
<p>These effects might vary depending on a lake’s <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abbf7b">depth, surface area and location</a>. But ecological processes in lakes are most affected by wind speed and sunlight, which is what our simulations focused on.</p>
<h2>Global potential</h2>
<p>While most of our simulations indicated a win-win for lakes and floating solar farms, some suggested undesirable side effects. In a small number of simulations, we found that floating solar farms that reduced wind speed at the lake’s surface more than they reduced sunlight might actually mimic or amplify the effects of climate change, increasing how long deeper lakes remain stratified. Thankfully, we think the careful design of floating solar farms should reduce these risks.</p>
<p>Floating solar power has grown more than a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211285520306893">hundredfold</a> in the past five years, reaching <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/22/floating-solar-pv-gains-global-momentum/">2.6 gigawatts of installed capacity</a> across 35 countries. If just 1% of the surface area of all human-made water bodies (which are easier to access and typically less ecologically sensitive than natural lakes) was covered by floating solar panels, <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/31880/Floating-Solar-Market-Report.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">it could generate 400 gigawatts</a> – enough electricity to power 44 billion LED light bulbs for a year.</p>
<p>Floating solar is likely to make an important contribution to the decarbonisation of the world’s energy supplies. In a stroke of serendipity, our research suggests this could have the added benefit of offsetting part of the damage to lakes caused by rising temperatures.</p>
<p>Still, our simulations only covered the physical effects of floating solar, while other questions remain unresolved. How would floating solar farms interact with other lake uses, such as sport or aquaculture? How would the wildlife sharing the lake fare? And which lakes are best suited to hosting a floating solar farm? The work to fully understand the potential of this technology is only just beginning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Giles Exley receives funding from NERC and United Utilities for their Envision DTP PhD studentship.</span></em></p>Earth’s floating solar power capacity has grown one-hundredfold in the last five years.Giles Exley, Associate Lecturer of Energy and Environment, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1467732020-10-02T16:40:43Z2020-10-02T16:40:43ZWhat the world can learn from clean energy transitions in India, China and Brazil<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359915/original/file-20200924-14-1okfu13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4493%2C2081&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jenson / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If the world is to transition to a climate-compatible future, much will turn on new innovations in clean energy and whether they can be deployed at a large scale. This is especially critical for emerging economies, which are developing their infrastructure and undergoing economic growth and urbanisation at an <a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-02409-z">unprecedented scale</a> and pace, yet still often lack the support for technological innovation found in wealthier countries.</p>
<p>Six of these emerging economies – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa – contributed <a href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf">more than 40%</a> of the global CO₂ emissions in 2019. That’s 1.5 times the combined emissions from the US and Europe. Yet at the same time China, India, and Brazil were the first, fourth and sixth <a href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf">largest producers of renewable electricity</a>. These three countries – the largest emerging economies – are now at a crucial juncture, faced with immense potential to become major innovators in the development of clean energy technology. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2516-1083/abb52b">new paper</a> we explored how fast-growing countries can not only develop their own sustainable systems but provide a source of learning and knowledge to influence global trends. We did this by investigating specific clean energy success stories in the three countries.</p>
<h2>India’s remarkable transition to LEDs</h2>
<p>First is India’s 130-fold expansion of its market for light emitting diode (LED) bulbs in just five years. LED bulbs are more energy efficient and last much longer than incandescent bulbs, tube lights, and compact fluorescent bulbs. In India they are primarily being used for residential lighting and street lamps.</p>
<p>India’s LED transition is estimated to save more than <a href="http://www.ujala.gov.in/">40 terawatt hours (TWh)</a> of electricity each year – roughly enough to power <a href="https://cprindia.org/news/6519">37 million average Indian households</a> or the whole of Denmark for one year. In three years, the country grew from a negligible share of the global LED market to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629620300657">about 10%</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359892/original/file-20200924-22-qmfej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing big growth in LED light in India." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359892/original/file-20200924-22-qmfej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359892/original/file-20200924-22-qmfej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359892/original/file-20200924-22-qmfej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359892/original/file-20200924-22-qmfej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359892/original/file-20200924-22-qmfej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359892/original/file-20200924-22-qmfej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359892/original/file-20200924-22-qmfej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lamp sales for different lighting technologies in India. The LED lighting market grew from annual sales of 5 million bulbs to 669 million.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Khosla et al (Data: ELCOMA)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Solar energy soars in China</h2>
<p>An equally remarkable transition occurred in China, which has become the top manufacturer and largest market of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules, accounting for 69% of global production. In the past 40 years, solar panel costs have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518305196#f0005">declined by more than 99%</a>, driven recently by low-cost manufacturing in China.</p>
<p>Between 2014 and 2018, <a href="https://iea-pvps.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/5319-iea-pvps-report-2019-08-lr.pdf">China added about 158 gigawatts</a> of solar PV – about the same as the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=19-IEO2019&region=0-0&cases=Reference&start=2010&end=2018&f=A&linechart=Reference-d080819.2-19-IEO2019&sid=Reference-d080819.6-19-IEO2019&sourcekey=0">total power generation capacity of Brazil</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359894/original/file-20200924-16-1x8r43s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph of solar pv cell production in selected countries." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359894/original/file-20200924-16-1x8r43s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359894/original/file-20200924-16-1x8r43s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359894/original/file-20200924-16-1x8r43s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359894/original/file-20200924-16-1x8r43s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359894/original/file-20200924-16-1x8r43s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359894/original/file-20200924-16-1x8r43s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359894/original/file-20200924-16-1x8r43s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China’s manufacturing capacity increased more than 25 times during 2008-2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Khosla et al (Data: IEA-PVPS annual Trends Reports and National Survey Reports for China, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and the US)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Biofuels in Brazil</h2>
<p>A third success story is that of Brazil’s long-term growth to become the largest producer, exporter and market for ethanol biofuel made from sugarcane.</p>
<p>Ethanol-run vehicles increased their share of Brazil’s new car sales from <a href="http://www.virapagina.com.br/anfavea2019/">30% in 1980 to 90% in 1985</a>. After ethanol stagnated in the 1990s, biofuels were revived by the introduction of flex-fuel vehicles which use any mix of gasoline and ethanol. Their share increased from negligible in 2003 to <a href="http://www.virapagina.com.br/anfavea2019/">85% of new cars sold</a> just five years later – and has remained constant since.</p>
<p>There are some environmental and socioeconomic impacts. These include deforestation for sugarcane plantations, soil erosion, air and water pollution, and the <a href="https://www.tni.org/files/download/ethanol_monopoly_brazil.pdf">consolidation of land ownership</a> among large ethanol producers. But when you look at the <a href="https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2013/IRENA-ETSAP-Tech-Brief-P10-Production_of_Liquid-Biofuels.pdf">full lifecycle of sugarcane ethanol fuel</a>, from crop to car, its greenhouse gas emissions are lower than those from gasoline or corn ethanol. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359896/original/file-20200924-17-htzetf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph of ethanol production in Brazil, China and the rest of the world" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359896/original/file-20200924-17-htzetf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359896/original/file-20200924-17-htzetf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359896/original/file-20200924-17-htzetf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359896/original/file-20200924-17-htzetf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359896/original/file-20200924-17-htzetf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359896/original/file-20200924-17-htzetf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359896/original/file-20200924-17-htzetf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ethanol production by country between 2000-2018. Note that US ethanol is almost entirely from corn, whereas Brazil’s is from sugarcane which has lower life-cycle carbon emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Khosla et al (Data: OECD)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Three lessons for the rest of the world</h2>
<p>Based on these unexpected clean-energy transitions, we have identified three insights relevant across emerging economies.</p>
<p><strong>1. Public sector enterprises are crucial</strong></p>
<p>In all three cases businesses with significant equity owned by governments played a crucial role. In India, a <a href="https://www.theclimategroup.org/news/indian-government-slashing-costs-led-lights-households">joint venture of four public-sector utilities</a> called EESL bought energy-efficient LED bulbs in bulk, reduced prices using competitive bidding, ran national marketing campaigns, and sold the bulbs to customers through new distribution channels.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"640110425627996160"}"></div></p>
<p>In China, public sector enterprises provided venture capital investments and loans that enabled rapid expansion of private sector solar startups. In Brazil, the leading public oil company bridged the gap between ethanol production and consumer point-of-purchase by buying ethanol from mills, providing storage and transport, and distributing fuel through the country’s largest network of fuel pumps.</p>
<p><strong>2. Domestic choices in a global economy</strong></p>
<p>Second is the need to reinforce complementary links between the global economy and domestic technology choices. For example, India was able to accelerate its LED market because its bulk procurement and bulb distribution policies complemented access to China’s large scale low-cost LED manufacturing. Equally, China’s early domestic support for export-oriented hi-tech manufacturing complemented the growing demand for solar cells in Germany.</p>
<p><strong>3. R&D that unites academia and industry</strong></p>
<p>Finally, engagement between industry and universities and public sector research institutions is essential. For example, Brazil could develop the technology to make ethanol compete on cost with gasoline only because of strong links between public sector research institutes and industry, including the government-funded “<a href="https://revistapesquisa.fapesp.br/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/054-057_genomacana_esp50.pdf">Sugarcane Genome Project</a>”.</p>
<p>Our analysis shows that it is possible for emerging economies to begin from a technologically and economically disadvantaged position and yet successfully accelerate the transition to clean energy technologies. These lessons provide good news, since success or failure in this endeavour will have long-term energy and climate consequences for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146773/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ajinkya Shrish Kamat has not received any funding for the paper discussed in this article. Funding he has received at MIT is independent of this work and is related to other research topics.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Venkatesh Narayanamurti currently receive funding from the Sloan Foundation on the role of spillovers in clean energy technologies. The work on the perspective was independent of that funding and it is related to other problems.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Radhika Khosla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our research identified three key lessons.Radhika Khosla, Senior Researcher at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, University of OxfordAjinkya Shrish Kamat, Postdoctoral Associate, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Venkatesh Narayanamurti, Benjamin Peirce Professor of Technology and Public Policy, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1237752019-09-23T20:05:20Z2019-09-23T20:05:20ZWe can make roof tiles with built-in solar cells – now the challenge is to make them cheaper<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293530/original/file-20190923-23801-zux52w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C0%2C4268%2C2837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This, except printed directly onto your roof tiles.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cole Eaton Photography/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Despite being such a sunkissed country, Australia is still lagging behind in the race to embrace solar power. While solar panels adorn hundreds of thousands of rooftops throughout the nation, we have not yet seen the logical next step: buildings with solar photovoltaic cells as an integral part of their structure.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/cie">lab</a> is hoping to change that. We have developed solar roof tiles with solar cells integrated on their surface using a specially customised adhesive. We are now testing how they perform in Australia’s harsh temperatures.</p>
<p>Our preliminary test results suggest that our solar roof tiles can generate 19% more electricity than conventional solar panels. This is because the tiles can absorb heat energy more effectively than solar panels, meaning that the tiles’ surface heats up more slowly in sustained sunshine, allowing the solar cells more time to work at lower temperatures.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293172/original/file-20190919-53544-1lkgw4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293172/original/file-20190919-53544-1lkgw4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293172/original/file-20190919-53544-1lkgw4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293172/original/file-20190919-53544-1lkgw4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293172/original/file-20190919-53544-1lkgw4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293172/original/file-20190919-53544-1lkgw4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293172/original/file-20190919-53544-1lkgw4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The solar roof tile.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australia’s greenhouse emissions <a href="https://theconversation.com/whichever-way-you-spin-it-australias-greenhouse-emissions-have-been-climbing-since-2015-118112">continue to rise</a>, making it <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-not-on-track-to-reach-2030-paris-target-but-the-potential-is-there-102725">harder to meet its commitments under the Paris agreement</a>. </p>
<p>Globally, commercial and residential buildings account for about 40% of energy consumption. Other countries are therefore looking hard at reducing their greenhouse emissions by making buildings more energy-efficient. The European Union, for example, has pledged to make all large buildings carbon-neutral by 2050. Both Europe and the United States are working on <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/11/3157">constructing buildings</a> from materials that can harness solar energy.</p>
<p>Here in Australia, buildings account for <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038092X19306565">only about 20% of energy consumption</a>, meaning that the overall emissions reductions on offer from improved efficiency are smaller.</p>
<p>That’s not to say that we shouldn’t go for it anyway, especially considering the amount of sunshine available. Yet compared with other nations, Australia is very much in its adolescence when it comes to solar-smart construction materials.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-solar-cells-offer-you-the-chance-to-print-out-solar-panels-and-stick-them-on-your-roof-102335">New solar cells offer you the chance to print out solar panels and stick them on your roof</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Taking Australia’s temperature</h2>
<p>In a recent <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038092X19306565">review in the journal Solar Energy</a>, we identified and discussed the issues that are obstructing the adoption of solar power-generating constructions – known as “building-integrated photovoltaics”, or BIPV – here in Australia.</p>
<p>According to the research we reviewed, much of the fear about adopting these technologies comes down to a simple lack of understanding. Among the factors we identified were: misconceptions about the upfront cost and payback time; lack of knowledge about the technology; anxiety about future changes to buildings’ microclimates; and even propaganda against climate change and renewable energy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-solar-panels-a-middle-class-purchase-this-survey-says-yes-97614">Are solar panels a middle-class purchase? This survey says yes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Worldwide, BIPV systems account for just 2.5% of the solar photovoltaic market (and virtually zero in Australia). But this is forecast to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038092X19306565">rise to 13% globally by 2022</a>. </p>
<p>Developing new BIPV technologies such as solar roof tiles and solar façades would not only cut greenhouse emissions but also open up huge potential for business and the economy.</p>
<p>According to a national survey (see the entry for Australia <a href="http://www.iea-pvps.org/?id=93">here</a>), Australian homeowners are still much more comfortable with rooftop solar panels than other systems such as ground-mounted ones. </p>
<p>In our opinion it therefore stands to reason that if we want to boost BIPV systems in Australia, our solar roof tiles are the perfect place to start. Our tiles have a range of advantages, such as low maintenance, attractive look, easy replaceability, and no extra load on the roof compared with conventional roof-mounted solar arrays.</p>
<h2>Challenges ahead</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, the major challenges for this technology are the current high cost, poor consumer awareness, and lack of industrial-scale manufacturing process. We made our tiles with the help of a 3D printing facility at Western Sydney University, which can be attached to an existing tile manufacturing machine with minor modifications. </p>
<p>The current installation cost of commercial solar tiles could be as high as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038092X19306565">A$600 per square metre</a>, including the inverter. </p>
<p>What’s more, we have little information on how the roof tiles will perform in long-term use, and no data on whether solar tiles will have an effect on conditions inside the building. It is possible that the tiles could increase the temperature inside, thus increasing the need for air conditioning. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-looming-waste-crisis-from-australias-solar-energy-boom-117421">There's a looming waste crisis from Australia's solar energy boom</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To answer these questions, we are carrying out a full life-cycle cost analysis of our solar tiles, as well as working on ways to bring down the cost. Our target is to reduce the cost to A$250 per square metre or even less, including the inverter. Prices like that would hopefully give Australian homeowners the power to put solar power into the fabric of their home.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The lead author thanks <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/staff_profiles/uws_profiles/professor_bijan_samali">Professor Bijan Samali</a> for valued supervision of his research.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123775/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia is in the midst of a solar energy boom, yet it is lagging behind other countries when it comes to ‘building-integrated photovoltaics’ - solar cells built into the very fabric of buildings.Md Abdul Alim, Postdoctoral researcher on sustainable development (Energy and Water), Western Sydney UniversityAtaur Rahman, Associate Professor, Western Sydney UniversityZhong Tao, Professor, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1110172019-03-26T22:34:30Z2019-03-26T22:34:30ZThe future of renewable infrastructure is uncertain without good planning<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265891/original/file-20190326-36270-1wn7c5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">These photovoltaics panels provide this village with energy now, but they could become obsolete when the main grid arrives. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2005, a small hydropower plant was installed in the Sukajaya district of West Java, Indonesia. This was an off-the-grid project, owned by the community, that provided electricity locally through a mini-grid to about 150 households mainly for lighting. But after 10 years <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329333506_Sustainability_of_Renewable_Off-Grid_Technology_for_Rural_Electrification_A_Comparative_Study_Using_the_IAD_Framework">the plant was discontinued</a> when the community was connected to the recently expanded central grid. </p>
<p>This is the story for many such projects in the region, including solar-powered residential systems. Over and over again, the value of renewable energy investments is lost as the installations are left abandoned as the grid arrives. In Indonesia alone, more than 150 villages have <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29018/134326.pdf?sequence=6&isAllowed=y">abandoned mini-grid projects</a> since late 2000s. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0182-1">investing in fossil fuel-based energy has become riskier</a>, there are also unique investment risks with small-scale renewable systems. In developing countries, in many sites relying on off-grid or mini-grid electricity, this infrastructure faces the risk of becoming a “stranded asset” — abandoned infrastructure that no longer holds value — which may work against efforts to limit climate change. </p>
<p>This is a significant issue for the <a href="https://www.iea.org/access2017/">1.1 billion people that still do not have access to any electricity</a> globally. According to the <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1K3v-OrHoJhsv-EyFni4a_3aJa-b-KfH5gA3x_DS8KHhXcTvyl0SmVE20">International Energy Agency</a>, to achieve 100 per cent electrification by 2030, we need to rely heavily on solutions that do not depend on a central electrical grid. In highly unelectrified regions like sub-Saharan Africa, nearly three-quarters of the new connections must come from off-grid and mini-grid systems. </p>
<h2>Threatened renewables</h2>
<p>Traditionally, the dominant approach to electrifying regions without electricity has been to extend the centralized grid into those regions. Most of these grids are run on fossil fuels such as coal, which still <a href="https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/World-Energy-Resources-Full-report-2016.10.03.pdf">remains the dominant electricity fuel source globally</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265885/original/file-20190326-36270-1bdwu51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265885/original/file-20190326-36270-1bdwu51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265885/original/file-20190326-36270-1bdwu51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265885/original/file-20190326-36270-1bdwu51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265885/original/file-20190326-36270-1bdwu51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265885/original/file-20190326-36270-1bdwu51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265885/original/file-20190326-36270-1bdwu51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wind farm in the Seychelles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">IRENA/flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, in recent decades, off-grid technologies based on renewable energy such as solar photovoltaics, wind power or hydropower have received a lot of attention for their ability to easily electrify remote communities. This has happened in the form of mini-grids, smaller versions of a large transmission grid, that connect tens or hundreds of households, or off-grid standalone systems for a single or a few households. </p>
<p>But mini-grid and off-grid developments are threatened by the arrival of the main grid, because customers will readily <a href="https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0305750X15312316">defect to the main grid</a>. This compromises the expectations of the mini-grid developers and sellers of standalone systems. </p>
<p><a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/258101549324138093/pdf/134326-ESMAP-P154383-PUBLIC-4-2-2019-15-30-28-ESMAPMiniGridsArrivalofMainGrid.pdf">A study</a> of mini-grids in three developing countries in Asia shows that this phenomenon is widespread. <a href="https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0305750X15312316">In another study</a>, one mini-grid investor in India noted that the government did not give him: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“…the assurance that if you do these projects is the grid going to reach there in one year, three years, five years? So there is no solidity in all of that.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In fact, in a recent <a href="https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/environment-energy/low_emission_climateresilientdevelopment/derisking-renewable-energy-investment/drei--off-grid-electrification--2018-.html">report by the UN Development Program (UNDP)</a>, grid expansion has been identified as one of the key barriers facing off-grid and mini-grid development.</p>
<h2>Options for developers</h2>
<p>There are two options for developers to partially save their assets, when the grid arrives.</p>
<p>Off-grid and mini-grid developers can partially protect their investments by letting go of the electricity generation related assets — like the power plant or generator, but keep the distribution power lines in place. </p>
<p>In Cambodia, for example, which had mainly diesel-based mini-grid systems, when the main electrical grid was expanded, larger <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29018/134326.pdf?sequence=6&isAllowed=y">mini-grids were integrated into it</a>. This allowed the mini-grid developers to change their business model and become small-scale power distributors. Unfortunately, this approach often eliminates the clean-energy benefits that come from mini-grids running on renewable energy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265978/original/file-20190326-36264-li5pcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265978/original/file-20190326-36264-li5pcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265978/original/file-20190326-36264-li5pcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265978/original/file-20190326-36264-li5pcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265978/original/file-20190326-36264-li5pcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265978/original/file-20190326-36264-li5pcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265978/original/file-20190326-36264-li5pcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In September 2015, the town of Les Côteaux in the south of Haiti switched on its lights for the first time after a mini-grid was installed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">UNEP/Marc Lee Steed</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another option is to abandon the distribution network and use the generation system to feed power back to the main grid. For example, in Sri Lanka, three <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29018/134326.pdf?sequence=6&isAllowed=y">hydropower projects became small-scale power producers</a>. These are low success rates, however, and an NGO had to do significant work to convert the three projects. </p>
<h2>Policy fixes</h2>
<p>But these courses of action <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.12.029">cannot happen in the absence of appropriate regulations</a>. Competition from a future centralized grid can be <a href="http://cse.ucpress.edu/content/early/2018/11/16/cse.2017.000737">avoided through integrated planning for electrification</a>.</p>
<p>Both grid and decentralized systems (off-grid and mini-grid) can be used together successfully if governments work towards the <a href="http://erdelab.forestry.ubc.ca/2018/11/the-twin-imperatives-of-global-energy-transitions/">twin imperatives</a> of universal electricity access and emissions reductions. By creating <a href="https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/environment-energy/low_emission_climateresilientdevelopment/derisking-renewable-energy-investment/drei--off-grid-electrification--2018-.html">off-grid zones</a> and <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/4/813/htm">non-overlapping service areas</a>, they can reduce the investment risk for decentralized solutions. They can then focus on enhancing the operation and maintenance capacity of local systems. </p>
<p>Decentralized energy has been hailed in many developed countries as the harbinger of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032114009149">democratization of energy</a>. But the picture is very different in developing countries. </p>
<p>Electrification using conventional means, growing consumption levels and simultaneous reliance on decentralized solutions without planning, may mean many small-scale low-carbon projects get discarded, and leave consumers, investors and governments in a fix. </p>
<p>Since deploying renewables is considered one of the most important ways to mitigate the climate change crisis, understanding their vulnerability and mitigating these vulnerabilities are indispensable for any bold climate action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hisham Zerriffi is a member of the board of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sandeep Pai and Vikas Menghwani do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Small-scale renewable energy projects can power rural areas not connected to the main grid. But investors may hesitate if future electrification remains unpredictable.Vikas Menghwani, PhD Candidate, University of British ColumbiaHisham Zerriffi, Associate Professor, Forest Resources Management, University of British ColumbiaSandeep Pai, Ph.D. Student & Public Scholar, Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1003502018-07-31T10:40:24Z2018-07-31T10:40:24ZDesigning a ‘solar tarp,’ a foldable, packable way to generate power from the sun<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228894/original/file-20180723-189308-v38f9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What if it were a lot easier to install solar power?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/solar-panel-technician-drill-installing-panels-345605207">zstock/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The energy-generating potential of solar panels – and a key limitation on their use – is a result of what they’re made of. Panels made of silicon are declining in price such that in some locations they can provide electricity that <a href="http://www.greenrhinoenergy.com/solar/market/mkt_trends.php">costs about the same as power from fossil fuels</a> like coal and natural gas. But silicon solar panels are also bulky, rigid and brittle, so they can’t be used just anywhere.</p>
<p>In many parts of the world that don’t have regular electricity, solar panels could provide <a href="http://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2010/ee/b918441d">reading light after dark</a> and energy to <a href="http://www.earthisland.org/journal/index.php/elist/eListRead/in_africa_clean_energy_provides_a_route_to_clean_water/">pump drinking water</a>, help <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/african_lights_microgrids_are_bringing_power_to_rural_kenya">power small household or village-based businesses</a> or even serve <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/refugee-camp-solar-energy-azraq_us_591c6ba4e4b0ed14cddb4685">emergency shelters and refugee encampments</a>. But the mechanical fragility, heaviness and transportation difficulties of silicon solar panels suggest that silicon may not be ideal.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/adma.201302563">Building on</a> <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/pv/organic-photovoltaic-solar-cells.html">others’ work</a>, <a href="https://www.lipomigroup.org/">my research group</a> is working to <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ADi0TFMAAAAJ&hl=en">develop flexible solar panels</a>, which would be as efficient as a silicon panel, but would be thin, lightweight and bendable. This sort of device, which we call a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2017.12.011">solar tarp</a>,” could be spread out to the size of a room and generate electricity from the sun, and it could be balled up to be the size of a grapefruit and stuffed in a backpack as many as 1,000 times without breaking. While there has been some effort to make organic solar cells more flexible simply by <a href="https://www.photonics.com/Articles/Ultrathin_solar_cells_for_stretchable_applications/a51133">making them ultra-thin</a>, real durability requires a molecular structure that makes the solar panels stretchable and tough.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229117/original/file-20180724-194149-1foyq8z.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229117/original/file-20180724-194149-1foyq8z.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229117/original/file-20180724-194149-1foyq8z.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229117/original/file-20180724-194149-1foyq8z.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229117/original/file-20180724-194149-1foyq8z.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229117/original/file-20180724-194149-1foyq8z.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229117/original/file-20180724-194149-1foyq8z.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229117/original/file-20180724-194149-1foyq8z.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A small piece of a prototype solar tarp.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of California, San Diego</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Silicon semiconductors</h2>
<p>Silicon is derived from sand, which makes it cheap. And the way its atoms pack in a solid material makes it a good semiconductor, meaning its conductivity can be switched on and off using electric fields or light. Because it’s cheap and useful, <a href="http://theconversation.com/beyond-silicon-the-search-for-new-semiconductors-55795">silicon is the basis for the microchips and circuit boards in computers</a>, mobile phones and basically all other electronics, transmitting electrical signals from one component to another. Silicon is also the key to most solar panels, because it can convert the energy from light into positive and negative charges. These charges flow to the opposite sides of a solar cell and can be used like a battery.</p>
<p>But its chemical properties also mean it can’t be turned into flexible electronics. Silicon doesn’t absorb light very efficiently. Photons might pass right through a silicon panel that’s too thin, so they have to be fairly thick – around 100 micrometers, <a href="https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=100+micrometers">about the thickness of a dollar bill</a> – so that none of the light goes to waste.</p>
<h2>Next-generation semiconductors</h2>
<p>But researchers have found other semiconductors that are much better at absorbing light. One group of materials, called “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aan2301">perovskites</a>,” can be used to make solar cells that are <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/07/170725122105.htm">almost as efficient as silicon ones</a>, but with light-absorbing layers that are one-thousandth the thickness needed with silicon. As a result, researchers are working on building <a href="http://doi.org/10.1117/2.1201608.006223">perovskite solar cells that can power small unmanned aircraft</a> and other devices where reducing weight is a key factor.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/chemistry/laureates/2000/">2000 Nobel Prize in Chemistry</a> was awarded to the researchers who first found they could make another type of ultra-thin semiconductor, called a semiconducting polymer. This type of material is called an “organic semiconductor” because it is based on carbon, and it is called a “polymer” because it consists of long chains of organic molecules. Organic semiconductors are already used commercially, including in the <a href="https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/cta-oled-tv-vr-and-drones-pass-1b-in-revenue">billion-dollar industry</a> of <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/what-is-oled-and-what-can-it-do-for-your-tv/">organic light-emitting diode displays</a>, better known as OLED TVs.</p>
<p>Polymer semiconductors aren’t as efficient at converting sunlight to electricity as perovskites or silicon, but they’re much more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/539365a">flexible and potentially extraordinarily durable</a>. Regular polymers – not the semiconducting ones – are found everywhere in daily life; they are the molecules that make up fabric, plastic and paint. Polymer semiconductors hold the potential to combine the electronic properties of materials like silicon with the physical properties of plastic.</p>
<h2>The best of both worlds: Efficiency and durability</h2>
<p>Depending on their structure, plastics have a wide range of properties – including both flexibility, as with a tarp; and rigidity, like the body panels of some automobiles. Semiconducting polymers have rigid molecular structures, and many are composed of tiny crystals. These are key to their electronic properties but tend to make them brittle, which is not a desirable attribute for either flexible or rigid items. </p>
<p>My group’s work has been focused on identifying ways to create <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2017.12.011">materials with both good semiconducting properties and the durability</a> plastics are known for – whether flexible or not. This will be key to my idea of a solar tarp or blanket, but could also lead to roofing materials, outdoor floor tiles or perhaps even the surfaces of roads or parking lots. </p>
<p>This work will be key to harnessing the power of sunlight – because, after all, the sunlight that strikes the Earth in a single hour contains <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/this-is-the-potential-of-solar-power-2015-9">more energy than all of humanity uses in a year</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darren Lipomi receives funding from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, the National Institutes of Health, and Benefunder through a gift from the B Quest Giving Fund</span></em></p>Silicon is cheap and a good semiconductor, but it’s bulky and rigid. Using organic polymers as semiconductors could yield solar panels with the physical characteristics of plastics.Darren Lipomi, Professor of Nanoengineering, University of California, San DiegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/940332018-04-05T20:03:57Z2018-04-05T20:03:57ZSolar PV and wind are on track to replace all coal, oil and gas within two decades<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213356/original/file-20180405-189798-1ar3jmj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar photovoltaics are now the world's leading source of new electricity generation.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">US Air Force</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Solar photovoltaic and wind power are rapidly getting cheaper and more abundant – so much so that they are on track to entirely supplant fossil fuels worldwide within two decades, with the time frame depending mostly on politics. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pro-coal-monash-forum-may-do-little-but-blacken-the-name-of-a-revered-australian-94329">protestation from some politicians</a> that we need to build new coal stations sounds rather quaint. </p>
<p>The reality is that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-photovoltaic-solar-energy-12924">rising tide of solar photovoltaics (PV)</a> and wind energy offers our only realistic chance of avoiding dangerous climate change. </p>
<p>No other greenhouse solution comes close, and it is very hard to envision any timely response to climate change that does not involve PV and wind doing most of the heavy lifting.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-is-now-the-most-popular-form-of-new-electricity-generation-worldwide-81678">Solar is now the most popular form of new electricity generation worldwide</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>About 80% of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions are due to the use of coal, oil and gas, which is typical for industrialised countries. The land sector accounts for most of the rest.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213340/original/file-20180405-189830-fobz4d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213340/original/file-20180405-189830-fobz4d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213340/original/file-20180405-189830-fobz4d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213340/original/file-20180405-189830-fobz4d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213340/original/file-20180405-189830-fobz4d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213340/original/file-20180405-189830-fobz4d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213340/original/file-20180405-189830-fobz4d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213340/original/file-20180405-189830-fobz4d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australian greenhouse gas emissions in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABS</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sadly, attempts to capture and store the carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-accept-carbon-capture-has-failed-heres-what-we-should-do-instead-82929">come to naught</a> due to technical difficulties and high cost. Thus, to curtail global warming we need to replace fossil fuel use entirely, with energy sources that meet these criteria:</p>
<ul>
<li>very large and preferably ubiquitous resource base</li>
<li>low or zero greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts</li>
<li>abundant or unlimited raw materials</li>
<li>minimal security concerns in respect of warfare, terrorism and accidents</li>
<li>low cost</li>
<li>already available in mass production.</li>
</ul>
<p>Solar PV meets all of these criteria, while wind energy also meets many of them, although wind is not as globally ubiquitous as sunshine. We will have sunshine and wind for billions of years to come. It is very hard to imagine humanity going to war over sunlight.</p>
<p>Most of the world’s population lives at low latitudes (less than 35°), where sunlight is abundant and varies little between seasons. Wind energy is also widely available, particularly at higher latitudes. </p>
<p>PV and wind have minimal environmental impacts and water requirements. The raw materials for PV – silicon, oxygen, hydrogen, carbon, aluminium, glass, steel and small amounts of other materials – are effectively in unlimited supply.</p>
<p>Wind energy is an important complement to PV because it often produces at different times and places, allowing a smoother combined energy output. In terms of worldwide annual electricity production wind is still <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Capacity_Statistics_2016.pdf">ahead of PV</a> but is growing more slowly. The wind energy resource is much smaller than the solar resource, and so PV will likely dominate in the end.</p>
<p>Complete replacement of all fossil fuels requires solar and wind collectors covering <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2016/09/22/we-could-power-the-entire-world-by-harnessing-solar-energy-from-1-of-the-sahara/#10fbba2d4406">much less than 1% of the world’s land surface area</a>. A large proportion of the collectors are installed on rooftops and in remote and arid regions, thus minimising competition with food production and ecosystems.</p>
<p>The more widely PV and wind generation are distributed across the world, the less the risk of wide-scale disruption from natural disasters, war and terrorism.</p>
<p>Other clean energy technologies can realistically play only a minor supporting role. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-next-solar-revolution-could-replace-fossil-fuels-in-mining-61153">solar thermal</a> industry is hundreds of times smaller than the fast-growing PV industry (because of higher costs). Hydro power, geothermal, wave and tidal energy are only significant prospects in particular regions. </p>
<p>Biomass energy is inefficient and its requirement for soil, water and fertiliser put it in conflict with food production and ecosystems. Nuclear is too expensive, and its construction rates are too slow to catch PV and wind.</p>
<h2>A renewable grid</h2>
<p>PV and wind are often described as “intermittent” energy sources. But stabilising the grid is <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217309568">relatively straightforward</a>, with the help of storage and high-voltage interconnectors to smooth out local weather effects. </p>
<p>By far the leading storage technologies are <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-energy-storage-here-are-22-000-sites-for-pumped-hydro-across-australia-84275">pumped hydro</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-can-teslas-giant-south-australian-battery-achieve-80738">batteries</a>, with a <a href="http://www.energystorageexchange.org/projects/data_visualization">combined market share of 97%</a>.</p>
<p>The cost of PV and wind power has been declining rapidly for many decades and is now in the range <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/stockyard-hill-wind-farm-locks-in-finance-after-setting-record-low-price-82932/source">A$55-70 per megawatt-hour in Australia</a>. This is cheaper than electricity from new-build coal and gas units. There are many reports of PV electricity being produced from <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-net-cost-of-using-renewables-to-hit-australias-climate-target-nothing-88021">very large-scale plants for A$30-50 per MWh</a>.</p>
<p>Solar PV and wind have been growing exponentially for decades and have now <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-is-now-the-most-popular-form-of-new-electricity-generation-worldwide-81678">reached economic lift-off</a>. In 2018, PV and wind will comprise 60% of net new electricity generation capacity worldwide. Coal, gas, nuclear, hydro and other renewable capacity comprise the rest. Globally, <a href="http://fs-unep-centre.org">US$161 billion will be invested in solar generation alone this year</a>, compared with US$103 billion in new coal and gas combined.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213339/original/file-20180405-189816-2czd56.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213339/original/file-20180405-189816-2czd56.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213339/original/file-20180405-189816-2czd56.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213339/original/file-20180405-189816-2czd56.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213339/original/file-20180405-189816-2czd56.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213339/original/file-20180405-189816-2czd56.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213339/original/file-20180405-189816-2czd56.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213339/original/file-20180405-189816-2czd56.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The path to dominance by PV and wind. In 2018, PV and wind are likely to comprise 60% of net new electricity generation capacity worldwide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Blakers/Matthew Stocks</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>PV and wind are growing at such a rate that the overall installed generation capacity of PV and wind has reached half that of coal, and will pass coal in the mid-2020s, judging by their <a href="https://endcoal.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/BoomAndBust_2018_r4.pdf">respective</a> <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Capacity_Statistics_2016.pdf">trends</a>.</p>
<p>In Australia, PV and wind comprise most new generation capacity. About 4.5 gigawatts of PV and wind is expected to be installed in 2018 compared with peak demand of <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-added-1-3gw-solar-2017-treble-2018/">35GW in the National Electricity Market</a>. At this rate, Australia would reach 70% renewable electricity by 2030.</p>
<p>Together, PV and wind currently produce about 7% of the world’s electricity. Worldwide over the past five years, PV capacity has grown by 28% per year, and wind by 13% per year. Remarkably, because of the slow or nonexistent growth rates of coal and gas, current trends put the world on track to reach 100% renewable electricity by 2032. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213338/original/file-20180405-189804-1fhhia3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213338/original/file-20180405-189804-1fhhia3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213338/original/file-20180405-189804-1fhhia3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213338/original/file-20180405-189804-1fhhia3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213338/original/file-20180405-189804-1fhhia3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213338/original/file-20180405-189804-1fhhia3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213338/original/file-20180405-189804-1fhhia3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213338/original/file-20180405-189804-1fhhia3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Current world electricity generation trends, extrapolated to 2032.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Blakers/Matthew Stocks</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Deep cuts (80% reduction) in greenhouse gas emissions require that fossil fuels are pushed out of all sectors of the economy. The path to achieve this is by electrification of all energy services.</p>
<p>Straightforward and cost-effective initial steps are: to hit 100% renewable electricity; to convert most land transport to electric vehicles; and to use renewable electricity to push gas out of low-temperature water and space heating. These trends are already well established, and the outlook for the oil and gas industries is correspondingly poor.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-net-cost-of-using-renewables-to-hit-australias-climate-target-nothing-88021">What's the net cost of using renewables to hit Australia's climate target? Nothing</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/energy-market-tipping-point-coming-fast-53726/">best available prices for PV</a> already match the current wholesale price of gas in Australia (<a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/gas-price-trends-review-report">A$9 per gigajoule, equivalent to A$32 per MWh for heat</a>).</p>
<p>High-temperature heat, industrial processes, aviation and shipping fuel and fugitive emissions can be displaced by renewable electricity and electrically produced synthetic fuels, plastics and other hydrocarbons. There may be a modest additional cost depending on the future price trajectory of PV and wind.</p>
<p>Electrifying the whole energy sector of our economy of course means that electricity production needs to increase massively – roughly tripling over the next 20 years. Continued rapid growth of PV (and wind) will minimise dangerous climate change with minimal economic disruption. Many policy instruments are available to hasten their deployment. Governments should get behind PV and wind as the last best chance to deliver the necessary solution to global warming.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94033/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Stocks receives funding from ARENA for the Australian Atlas of Pumped Hydro. </span></em></p>Solar photovoltaics and wind power are on track to supplant fossil-fuel-based electricity generation by the 2030s. The only thing holding back the renewable revolution is politics.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityMatthew Stocks, Research Fellow, ANU College of Engineering and Computer Science, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/903192018-02-19T04:34:01Z2018-02-19T04:34:01ZTesla’s ‘virtual power plant’ might be second-best to real people power<p>The South Australian government and Tesla recently <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-04/how-tesla-sa-labor-free-battery-scheme-would-work/9394728">announced</a> a large-scale solar and storage scheme that will distribute solar panels and batteries free of charge to 50,000 households. </p>
<p>This would form what has been dubbed a “virtual power plant”, essentially delivering wholesale energy and service systems. This is just the latest in South Australia’s energetic push to embrace renewables, make energy cheaper and reduce blackout-causing instability. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-can-teslas-giant-south-australian-battery-achieve-80738">Explainer: what can Tesla's giant South Australian battery achieve?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The catch is that more than a third of the costs of a power system are in the <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content/e518bbb1-686b-4b43-83cb-f173f3e5eaf4/Information-sheet-NAT-Final-Report.PDF">distribution networks</a>, as are most of the faults. A virtual power plant on its own can’t necessarily solve the problems of costly network management. </p>
<p>The bundling of batteries together to power a network doesn’t consider the needs of either households or the network. </p>
<p>To address these problems, we’re trialling technology in Tasmania that intelligently controls fleets of batteries and other home devices with the aim of making networks more flexible, reliable, and cheaper to operate.</p>
<h2>The Bruny Island Battery trial</h2>
<p>Part of what we need to transition to a more reliable and cleaner grid is better control of power networks. This will improve operation during normal times, reduce stress during peak times, and remove the need for costly investment over the long term. </p>
<p>For instance, sometimes the network simply needs more energy in one particular location. Perhaps a household doesn’t want the grid to draw power from their battery on a particular day, because it’s cheaper for them to use it themselves. Most models of virtual power plants don’t take these different needs into account. </p>
<p>Bruny Island in Tasmania is the site of a <a href="https://arena.gov.au/projects/consumer-energy-systems-providing-cost-effective-grid-support-consort/">three-year trial</a>, bringing together researchers from the the Australian National University, the University of Sydney, the University of Tasmania, TasNetworks and tech start-up Reposit Power.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/charging-ahead-how-australia-is-innovating-in-battery-technology-90169">Charging ahead: how Australia is innovating in battery technology</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Thirty-three households have been supplied with “smart battery” systems, charged from solar cells on their roofs, and a “controller” box that sits between the house and the power lines. </p>
<p>Participants are paid when their batteries supply energy to the Bruny Island network, which is sometimes overloaded during peak demand. Their bills will also go down because they’ll be drawing household power from their battery when it is most cost-effective for them. </p>
<p>In a world first, Network-Aware Coordination (NAC) software coordinates individual battery systems. The NAC automatically negotiates battery operations with the household (via the controller box), to decide whether the battery should discharge onto the grid or not. </p>
<p>In these negotiations, computer algorithms request battery assistance at a price that reflects the value to the network. If the price is too low for the household, for example because they are better off storing the energy for their own use later in the day, the controller will make a counter-offer to the network with a higher price. </p>
<p>The negotiation continues until they find a solution that works for the network, at the lowest overall cost.</p>
<p>The NAC-based negotiation is half of the economic equation. Battery owners will also be compensated for their work in supporting the grid. The trial team are working out a payment system that passes on some of the networks’ savings created by avoiding diesel generator use on Bruny Island. </p>
<h2>Solving big problems</h2>
<p>The problem of co-ordinating Australia’s <a href="http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses">1.8 million rooftop solar installations</a> in one of the longest electricity networks in the world is not trivial. </p>
<p>Distributed battery systems, such as in Tesla’s South Australian proposal, represent one possible future. The question that we’re exploring is how to coordinate large numbers of customer-owned batteries to work in the best interests of both the consumer and the network. </p>
<p>The primary feature of virtual power plants, to lump together resources, runs counter to what is required for targeted distribution network support. Nor do virtual power plants necessarily have to act in the best interest of householders. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-the-new-renewable-superpowers-nations-that-boss-the-materials-used-for-wind-and-solar-91680">Meet the new 'renewable superpowers': nations that boss the materials used for wind and solar</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In contrast, we’re trialling technology that acts in the financial interests of householders, to earn value from their batteries by providing location-specific services to networks, at a time and price that suits the customer.</p>
<p>As currently conceived, the South Australian scheme may not be the most cost-effective solution to dealing with our evolving electricity system’s needs. The Bruny trial shows a different possible future grid - one which allows people to produce and store energy for themselves, and also share it, reducing pressure on the network and allowing higher penetrations of renewables. </p>
<p>–
<em>The Bruny trial is funded by ARENA, and is a collaborative venture lead by The Australian National University, with project partners The University of Sydney, University of Tasmania, battery control software business Reposit Power, and TasNetworks.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90319/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Australian Government, through the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), is providing $2.9m towards the $8m CONSORT project under its Research and Development Programme.
Hedda Ransan-Cooper receives funding from ARENA.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Archie Chapman receives funding from ARENA. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Scott receives funding from ARENA.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Veryan Hann receives funding from ARENA.</span></em></p>Our energy system puts consumers more or less at the mercy of business and regulators. What if the future of energy meant putting the power back in the hands of households?Hedda Ransan-Cooper, Research fellow, Australian National UniversityArchie Chapman, Research Fellow in Smart Grids, University of SydneyPaul Scott, Research fellow, Australian National UniversityVeryan Patterson Hann, PhD Candidate - Energy Policy Innovation, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/905782018-01-25T11:39:13Z2018-01-25T11:39:13ZThe state of the US solar industry: 5 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203294/original/file-20180124-107959-qwk0j7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dedicating a 31-kilowatt photovoltaic array at Rainshadow Community Charter High School, in Reno, Nevada.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/e2PWBo">BlackRock Solar</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: On Jan. 22, 2018, the Trump administration announced plans to <a href="https://theconversation.com/there-are-better-ways-to-foster-solar-innovation-and-save-jobs-than-trumps-tariffs-90532">impose punitive duties</a> on solar panels imported from abroad. This decision came in response to a complaint filed by two solar companies, but much of the industry <a href="https://www.seia.org/news/presidents-decision-solar-tariffs-loss-america">opposes the action</a>, which trade groups say will increase the cost of solar projects and depress demand. To illustrate what’s at stake, energy scholar Joshua Rhodes provides some context on the U.S. solar industry and its opportunities and challenges.</em></p>
<h2>1. How big is the U.S. solar industry, and what is its growth trajectory?</h2>
<p>The U.S. solar industry generated <a href="http://www.thesolarfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2016-Census-Economic-Impacts_Final.pdf">US$154 billion in economic activity</a> in 2016, including direct sales, wages, salaries, benefits, taxes and fees. Its revenues have grown from $42 million in 2007 to <a href="http://www.sme.org/MEMagazine/Article.aspx?id=70996&taxid=1476">$210 million</a> in 2017. </p>
<p>About 25 percent of total new power plant capacity installed in 2017 came from solar. Total installed U.S. solar capacity is over 50 gigawatts – the equivalent generating capacity of 50 commercial nuclear reactors.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203103/original/file-20180123-33535-fvhdgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203103/original/file-20180123-33535-fvhdgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203103/original/file-20180123-33535-fvhdgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203103/original/file-20180123-33535-fvhdgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203103/original/file-20180123-33535-fvhdgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203103/original/file-20180123-33535-fvhdgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203103/original/file-20180123-33535-fvhdgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203103/original/file-20180123-33535-fvhdgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nearly half of utility-scale capacity installed in 2017 came from renewables, and about half of that was solar.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Solar is projected to continue to grow for the foreseeable future. However, recent events such as the solar trade tariff and tax code changes could dampen that trend. According to one estimate, the tariff alone will reduce solar installations by <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/tariffs-to-curb-solar-installations-by-11-through-2022#gs.U4lmSYg">11 percent from 2018 through 2022</a>. </p>
<p>The industry directly or indirectly employs about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/04/25/climate/todays-energy-jobs-are-in-solar-not-coal.html">370,000 people</a> in the United States, of which 260,000 are full- or part-time. Solar photovoltaic installers make up about half of this workforce. In fact, solar PV installer is currently the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/ooh/fastest-growing.htm">fastest-growing job</a> in the nation, with a median annual salary of nearly $40,000.</p>
<p>For comparison, the coal industry only supports about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/04/25/climate/todays-energy-jobs-are-in-solar-not-coal.html">160,000 jobs</a>. Electric power generation from solar and wind energy combined contributes about three times as many jobs as electricity production from fossil fuels.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203125/original/file-20180123-33548-wwax5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203125/original/file-20180123-33548-wwax5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203125/original/file-20180123-33548-wwax5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=239&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203125/original/file-20180123-33548-wwax5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=239&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203125/original/file-20180123-33548-wwax5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=239&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203125/original/file-20180123-33548-wwax5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203125/original/file-20180123-33548-wwax5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203125/original/file-20180123-33548-wwax5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://energy.gov/downloads/2017-us-energy-and-employment-report">DOE</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Why are most of the solar panels that are installed in the United States manufactured overseas? Is this pattern likely to change?</h2>
<p>About <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/trump-makes-first-big-trade-move-with-tariffs-aimed-at-asia">80 percent</a> of solar panels installed in the United States last year were built overseas. While the industry was invented here, China has poured up to <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-china-is-dominating-the-solar-industry/">$47 billion</a> into tax breaks and incentives in order to develop what it views as a strategic capability. Along with an abundant supply of cheap skilled labor, these investments reduced the price of solar panels by 80 percent between 2008 and 2013. </p>
<p>Some foreign solar panel manufacturers are <a href="https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/01/19/jinkosolar-negotiating-with-jacksonville-florida-to-set-up-a-factory/">negotiating to open factories in the United States</a>, much as foreign car manufacturers did during the Reagan administration. However, any new manufacturing is likely to be highly automated, so it might not generate major numbers of new jobs. </p>
<h2>3. Which sectors and states produce the most solar power today?</h2>
<p>About <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=24852">60 percent</a> of total U.S. solar generating capacity is in a relatively small number of very big projects owned by power companies. The rest is what’s known as distributed capacity, meaning small-scale projects that generate energy at many sites. It includes rooftop solar power on homes, community solar projects and commercial installations, such as solar panels on the roofs of big-box stores like Walmart. </p>
<p>California has <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=24852">nearly half</a> of all U.S. solar electricity generating capacity, followed by Arizona, New Jersey and North Carolina. Alaska, North Dakota and South Dakota are the only states with less than one megawatt of small-scale solar photovoltaic capacity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203274/original/file-20180124-107946-yd3et1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203274/original/file-20180124-107946-yd3et1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203274/original/file-20180124-107946-yd3et1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203274/original/file-20180124-107946-yd3et1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203274/original/file-20180124-107946-yd3et1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203274/original/file-20180124-107946-yd3et1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203274/original/file-20180124-107946-yd3et1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203274/original/file-20180124-107946-yd3et1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. How affordable is solar power for customers who aren’t affluent?</h2>
<p>Affordability can be a barrier to going solar, but there are ways to reduce it. For example, some utility customers can subscribe to <a href="https://www.seia.org/initiatives/community-solar">community solar programs</a> – projects that serve multiple customers in a single area – and even reduce their rates by doing so. Community solar projects do not usually require customers to own their homes, so renters can take part.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"944253976446414854"}"></div></p>
<p>There are also peer-to-peer networks that allow homeowners with solar to <a href="http://www.gridmates.com/solar">donate their excess energy</a> to those in need. Instead of receiving credit from their utility for generating more electricity than they use in a given month, these households authorize the utility to apply that credit to a needy household’s bill. </p>
<p>It is also important to note that utility-scale solar power can lower the cost of electricity for all of that utility’s customers. In Texas, where I live, adding wind and, soon, solar generation has kept wholesale electricity prices low as the price of renewable electricity has fallen. Keeping these prices low makes it harder for power companies to justify raising electricity rates, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-solar-and-wind-really-killing-coal-nuclear-and-grid-reliability-76741">directly helps lower-income customers</a>. </p>
<h2>5. What are the biggest challenges that U.S. solar companies face today?</h2>
<p>There are signs that the residential solar market is <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-residential-solar-market-forecast-to-decline-for-the-first-time#gs.7ggjt=w">slowing down</a>. Some companies are shifting their focus from deploying as much capacity as possible to trying to <a href="https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/07/26/turmoil-in-residential-solar/">maximize revenue</a> by scaling back expansion, so that they can focus on a few states that offer the best returns on investment. </p>
<p>In some major markets, such as California, bringing large amounts of solar generation online is depressing wholesale electricity market prices, which erodes the value of the electricity that these systems produce. This makes projects gradually less economic to install.</p>
<p>The Trump administration’s solar tariff will be more challenging for utility-scale solar projects than for residential, because the modules account for a larger share of the total cost of large projects. A 30-percent tariff will likely increase the costs of solar installations <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuarhodes/2018/01/23/solar-tariff-a-direct-hit-to-fastest-growing-job-market-in-us/#69f97ccf2561">by about 11 cents per watt</a>, or roughly 10 percent, which could reduce the amount of solar installed over the next 4 years by five to eight gigawatts of capacity, <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/tariffs-to-curb-solar-installations-by-11-through-2022#gs.U4lmSYg">mostly at the utility scale</a>. </p>
<p>In my view, the biggest challenge for U.S. solar companies – particularly installers – is uncertainty. Congress recently tried unsuccessfully to cancel tax credits for installing new solar capacity, and the tax cut bill that was enacted in December includes some changes that may affect credits for investing in solar. Companies need certainty to create value and jobs – and for solar and other renewable energy sources, certainty is in short supply at the moment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90578/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Rhodes abides by the disclosure policies of the University of Texas at Austin. The University of Texas at Austin is committed to transparency and disclosure of all potential conflicts of interest. He has filed all required financial disclosure forms with the university. Joshua Rhodes has not received any research funding that would create a conflict of interest or the appearance of such a conflict. In addition to research work on topics generally related to energy systems at the University of Texas at Austin, Joshua Rhodes is an equity partner in IdeaSmiths LLC, which consults on topics in the same areas of interests. The terms of this arrangement have been reviewed and approved by the University of Texas at Austin in accordance with its policy on objectivity in research.</span></em></p>What’s at stake as the Trump administration imposes trade sanctions on imported solar panels? A look at the US solar energy industry, which generates more than twice as many jobs as coal energy.Joshua D. Rhodes, Research Fellow of Energy, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/844332017-09-27T01:07:23Z2017-09-27T01:07:23ZRenewables will be cheaper than coal in the future. Here are the numbers<p>In a recent Conversation FactCheck I examined the question: “<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-is-coal-still-cheaper-than-renewables-as-an-energy-source-81263">Is coal still cheaper than renewables as an energy source?</a>” In that article, we assessed how things stand today. Now let’s look to the future.</p>
<p>In Australia, <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/97a4f50c-24ac-4fe5-b3e5-5f93066543a4/files/independent-review-national-elec-market-prelim.pdf">87%</a> of our electricity generation comes from fossil fuels. That’s one of the highest levels of fossil fuel generation <a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/media/1318/2016-06-23_aec-renewables-fact-sheet.pdf">in the world</a>.</p>
<p>So we have important decisions to make about how we’ll generate energy as Australia’s fleet of coal-fired power stations <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-true-cost-of-keeping-the-liddell-power-plant-open-83634">reach the end of their operating lives</a>, and as we move to decarbonise the economy to meet our climate goals following the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/international/paris-agreement">Paris agreement</a>.</p>
<p>What will the cost of coal-fired and renewable energy be in the coming decades? Let’s look at the numbers.</p>
<h2>Improvements in technology will make renewables cheaper</h2>
<p>As technology and economies of scale improve over time, the initial capital cost of building an energy generator decreases. This is known as the “learning rate”. Improvements in technology are expected to reduce the price of renewables more so than coal in coming years.</p>
<p>The chart below, <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/emissions-mitigation-policies.pdf">produced</a> by consulting firm Jacobs Group and published in the recent <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-electricity-market-review">Finkel review of the National Electricity Market</a>, shows the projected <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source">levelised cost of electricity</a> (LCOE) for a range of technologies in 2020, 2030 and 2050.</p>
<p>The chart shows a significant reduction in the cost of solar and wind, and a relatively static cost for mature technologies such as coal and gas. It also shows that large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) generation, with a faster learning rate, is projected to be cheaper than wind generation from around 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179968/original/file-20170727-8486-4pt9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179968/original/file-20170727-8486-4pt9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179968/original/file-20170727-8486-4pt9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179968/original/file-20170727-8486-4pt9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179968/original/file-20170727-8486-4pt9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179968/original/file-20170727-8486-4pt9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179968/original/file-20170727-8486-4pt9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179968/original/file-20170727-8486-4pt9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Notes: Numbers in Figure A.1 refer to the average.
For each generation technology shown in the chart, the range shows the lowest cost to the highest cost project available in Jacobs’ model, based on the input assumptions in the relevant year. The average is the average cost across the range of projects; it may not be the midpoint between the highest and lowest cost project.
Large-scale Solar Photovoltaic includes fixed plate, single and double axis tracking.
Large-scale Solar Photovoltaic with storage includes 3 hours storage at 100 per cent capacity.
Solar Thermal with storage includes 12 hours storage at 100 per cent capacity.
Cost of capital assumptions are consistent with those used in policy cases, that is, without the risk premium applied.
The assumptions for the electricity modelling were finalised in February 2017 and do not take into account recent reductions in technology costs (e.g. recent wind farm announcements).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/electricity-market-review-final-report.pdf">Independent Review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wind prices are already falling rapidly. For example: the graph above shows the 2020 price for wind at A$92 per megawatt-hour (MWh). But when the assumptions for the electricity modelling were finalised in February 2017, that price was already out of date.</p>
<p>In its <a href="http://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/918528/200-MW-Next-generation-Renewable-Factsheet.pdf">2016 Next Generation Renewables Auction</a>, the Australian Capital Territory government secured a fixed price for wind of <a href="http://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/918528/200-MW-Next-generation-Renewable-Factsheet.pdf">A$73 per MWh</a> over 20 years (or A$56 per MWh in constant dollars at 3% inflation).</p>
<p>In May 2017, the <a href="https://www.originenergy.com.au/about/investors-media/media-centre/origin-adds-530mw-of-renewable-energy-to-its-portfolio.html">Victorian renewable energy auction</a> set a record low fixed price for wind of <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/origin-stuns-industry-with-record-low-price-for-530mw-wind-farm-70946/">A$50-60 per MWh</a> over 12 years (or A$43-51 per MWh in constant dollars at 3% inflation). This is below the AGL price for electricity from the <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/origin-stuns-industry-with-record-low-price-for-530mw-wind-farm-70946/">Silverton wind farm of $65 per MWh fixed over five years</a>.</p>
<p>These long-term renewable contracts are similar to a LCOE, because they extend over a large fraction of the lifetime of the wind farm.</p>
<p>The tables and graph below show a selection of renewable energy long-term contract prices across Australia in recent years, and illustrate a gradual decline in wind energy auction results (in constant 2016 dollars), consistent with improvements in technology and economies of scale. </p>
<p><iframe id="R1bBY" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/R1bBY/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><iframe id="IXtHg" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/IXtHg/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><iframe id="Ugi50" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ugi50/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>But this analysis is still based on LCOE comparisons – or what it would cost to use these technologies for a simple “plug and play” replacement of an old generator. </p>
<p>Now let’s price in the cost of changes needed to the entire electricity network to support the use of renewables, and to price in other factors, such as climate change.</p>
<h2>Carbon pricing will increase the cost of coal-fired power</h2>
<p>The economic, environmental and social costs of greenhouse gas emissions are not included in simple electricity cost calculations, such as the LCOE analysis above. Neither are the costs of other factors, such as the health effects of air particle pollution, or deaths arising from coal mining.</p>
<p>The risk of the possible introduction of carbon emissions mitigation policies can be <em>indirectly</em> factored into the LCOE of coal-fired power through higher rates for the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_average_cost_of_capital">weighted average cost of capital</a> (in other words, higher interest rates for loans).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/emissions-mitigation-policies.pdf">Jacobs report</a> to the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-electricity-market-review">Finkel Review</a> estimates that the weighted average cost of capital for coal will be 15%, compared with 7% for renewables.</p>
<p>The cost of greenhouse gas emissions can be incorporated more directly into energy prices by putting a price on carbon. Many economists maintain that carbon pricing is the most <a href="http://www.oecd.org/env/tools-evaluation/effective-carbon-prices-9789264196964-en.htm">cost-effective way</a> to reduce global carbon emissions.</p>
<p>One megawatt-hour of coal-fired electricity creates approximately <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-electricity-market-review">one tonne of carbon dioxide</a>. So even a <a href="http://carbonpricemodelling.treasury.gov.au/content/report/04overview.asp">conservative carbon price</a> of around A$20 per tonne would increase the levelised cost of coal generation by around A$20 per MWh, putting it at almost A$100 per MWh in 2020.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/emissions-mitigation-policies.pdf">Jacobs analysis</a>, this would make both wind and large-scale photovoltaics – at A$92 and A$91 per MWh, respectively – cheaper than any fossil fuel source from the year 2020.</p>
<p>It’s worth noting here the ultimate inevitability of a price signal on carbon, even if Australia continues to resist the idea of implementing a simple carbon price. Other policies currently under consideration, including some form of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/finkels-clean-energy-target-plan-better-than-nothing-economists-poll-82066">clean energy target</a>, would put similar upward price pressure on coal relative to renewables, while the global move towards carbon pricing will eventually see Australia follow suit or risk imposts on its carbon-exposed exports.</p>
<h2>Australia’s grid needs an upgrade</h2>
<p>Renewable energy (excluding hydro power) accounted for <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/97a4f50c-24ac-4fe5-b3e5-5f93066543a4/files/independent-review-national-elec-market-prelim.pdf">around 6%</a> of Australia’s energy supply in the 2015-16 financial year. Once renewable energy exceeds say, 50%, of Australia’s total energy supply, the LCOE for renewables should be used with caution.</p>
<p>This is because most renewable energy – like that generated by wind and solar – is intermittent, and needs to be “balanced” (or backed up) in order to be reliable. This <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-electricity-market-review">requires investment in energy storage</a>. We also need more transmission lines within the electricity grid to ensure ready access to renewable energy and storage in different regions, which increases transmission costs.</p>
<p>And, there are additional engineering requirements, like building “<a href="https://theconversation.com/relying-on-renewables-need-not-mean-dealing-with-blackouts-28635">inertia</a>” into the electricity system to maintain voltage and frequency stability. Each additional requirement increases the cost of electricity beyond the levelised cost. But by how much?</p>
<p>Australian National University researchers calculated that the addition of <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-energy-storage-here-are-22-000-sites-for-pumped-hydro-across-australia-84275">pumped-hydro storage</a> and extra network construction would add a levelised cost of <em>balancing</em> of <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217309568?via%3Dihub">A$25-30 per MWh</a> to the levelised cost of renewable electricity.</p>
<p>The researchers predicted that eventually a future 100% renewable energy system would have a levelised cost of <em>generation</em> in current dollars of around A$50 per MWh, to which adding the levelised cost of <em>balancing</em> would yield a network-adjusted LCOE of around A$75-80 per MWh.</p>
<p>The Australian National University result is similar to the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/emissions-mitigation-policies.pdf">Jacobs 2050 LCOE prediction</a> for large-scale solar photovoltaic plus pumped hydro of around A$69 per MWh, which doesn’t include extra network costs.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/d67797b7-d563-427f-84eb-c3bb69e34073/files/100-percent-renewables-study-modelling-outcomes-report.pdf">AEMO 100% Renewables Study</a> indicated that this would add another A$6-10 per MWh, yielding a comparable total in the range A$75-79 per MWh.</p>
<p>This would make a 100% renewables system competitive with new-build supercritical (ultrasupercritical) coal, which, according to the Jacobs calculations in the chart above, would come in at around A$75(80) per MWh between 2020 and 2050.</p>
<p>This projection for supercritical coal is consistent with other studies by the <a href="http://www.co2crc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/LCOE_Report_final_web.pdf">CO2CRC in 2015</a> (A$80 per MWh) and used by <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/Futures/Reports/Low-Emissions-Technology-Roadmap">CSIRO in 2017</a> (A$65-80 per MWh).</p>
<h2>So, what’s the bottom line?</h2>
<p>By the time renewables dominate electricity supply in Australia, it’s highly likely that a price on carbon will have been introduced. A conservative carbon price of at least A$20 per tonne would put coal in the A$100-plus bracket for a megawatt-hour of electricity. A completely renewable electricity system, at A$75-80 per MWh, would then be more affordable than coal economically, and more desirable environmentally.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84433/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ken Baldwin receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>The price of renewable energy will fall significantly relative to new-build coal in coming decades, making an all-renewable electricity system more desirable, both economically and environmentally.Ken Baldwin, Director, Energy Change Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/621252016-07-12T01:45:50Z2016-07-12T01:45:50ZThree reasons to be cheerful about limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees<p>The recent streak of <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/earth-sees-11-record-hot-months-20254">record-breaking temperatures</a> has shown that climate change is not waiting for the world to take decisive action. </p>
<p>But the adoption of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Agreement</a> was a clear signal that the world is ready to take climate change seriously. 175 countries signed and 15 of these ratified the climate deal during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-climate-deal-signing-ceremony-what-it-means-and-why-it-matters-58105">signing ceremony</a>.</p>
<p>Now there is every indication the agreement could enter into force this year. Many countries, led by the two biggest emitters, China and the United States, have signaled their intent to ratify <a href="http://climateanalytics.org/hot-topics/ratification-tracker">by the end of 2016</a>, leaving just four countries and 1.72% of global emissions needed for it to become official.</p>
<p>There can be no doubt that the window of opportunity to limit global warming to below 1.5°C, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-1-5-became-the-most-important-number-at-the-paris-climate-talks-51960">key target of the 2015 Paris agreement</a>, is closing fast. But there are encouraging signs around the world that this can still be done, even if there is still a very long way to go. Here are three of the most positive developments that will help the world reach its target. </p>
<h2>1. Green energy is getting cheaper</h2>
<p>The costs of climate mitigation have decreased drastically. According to <a href="http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_cost_data.html">NREL’s Transparent Costs Database</a>, wind energy costs in the US are now on a par with coal-fired power.</p>
<p>In May 2016 the price of photovoltaic (PV) energy fell to less than <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/solar-prices-plunge-to-new-lows-as-dubai-auction-nets-under-3ckwh-84894">three US cents a kilowatt</a> at an auction in Dubai. Even in not-so-sunny Germany, solar energy costs have been decreasing steadily: in a <a href="http://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/cln_1432/DE/Sachgebiete/ElektrizitaetundGas/Unternehmen_Institutionen/ErneuerbareEnergien/PV-Freiflaechenanlagen/Gebotstermin_01_12_2015/gebotstermin_01_12_2015_node.html">recent auction</a> in December 2015, prices fell to eight euro cents per kilowatt hour.</p>
<p>We can expect further cost decreases in the coming years. According to a recent <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_Power_to_Change_2016.pdf">report</a>, by the end of the decade, the cost of onshore wind should decrease by a quarter, off-shore wind by a third and photovoltaics by almost two-thirds. By the mid-2020s, solar PV and onshore wind should cost 5 or 6 US cents per kilowatt hour on average. This is significantly <a href="http://en.openei.org/apps/TCDB/">below</a> the cost of energy from nuclear and coal.</p>
<p>As a result of decreasing costs and additional benefits, investment in renewables exploded in 2015 <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/lower-oil-prices-but-more-renewables-whats-going-on">despite</a> low oil prices. Meanwhile, renewable energy investment <a href="http://www.irena.org/News/Description.aspx?NType=A&mnu=cat&PriMenuID=16&CatID=84&News_ID=1446">reached</a> a record US$286 billion, generating 152 gigawatts of new capacity. This is more than the combined installed capacity from all sources for the whole <a href="http://www.tsp-data-portal.org/Breakdown-of-Electricity-Capacity-by-Energy-Source#tspQvChart">African continent</a>. </p>
<h2>2. Carbon dioxide emissions have stopped rising</h2>
<p>In 2014 and 2015, the CO₂ emissions from the energy sector stalled despite the global economy growing by 3%. According to the International Energy Agency, in 2014, emissions increased by <a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2016/march/decoupling-of-global-emissions-and-economic-growth-confirmed.html">less than 0.2%</a> and <a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2016/march/decoupling-of-global-emissions-and-economic-growth-confirmed.html">by only</a> 0.03% last year. </p>
<p>BP’s estimates for both years were slightly higher, (0.5% in <a href="http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-spencer-dale-presentation.pdf">2014</a> and 0.1% in <a href="http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/co2-emissions.html">2015</a>), but that was a significant change of trend compared to the average annual emission growth of around 2.6% over the past decade.</p>
<p>The major factor in this flattening trend was a fall in emissions of the two biggest emitters: China and the United States. In China, despite an <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/press/releases/climate-energy/2016/Data-shows-Chinas-economy-is-breaking-free-from-coal---Greenpeace/">increase</a> in power consumption by 3%, power generation from fossil fuels decreased by 2%. This <a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2016/march/decoupling-of-global-emissions-and-economic-growth-confirmed.html">led emissions to fall by 1.5% last year</a>. In the United States, emissions <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25852">decreased</a> by 2% despite <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual">healthy economic growth</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, developing countries are taking advantage of the significant fall in the costs of renewables. While India’s emissions grew by over 5% last year, the second most populous country in the world has embarked <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/69425">on one of the fastest renewable expansion programmes anywhere on the planet</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">India has embraced renewables on a massive scale.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/brahmakumaris/15206457819/in/photolist-paK58e-pqdcVN-paKVgJ-paKp53-pqdbgA-prXW9Z-prXVS6-paK5mv-psdxKm-nmDz5i-paKpZE-prXWpt-paK48Z-njAHLJ-paKUY9-psdxzw-nmDycr-paKqMw-njAPYH-7bAp5c-7bDUp5-7bDUpo-dT9jcu-7bDP95-fiu974-7915Fu-7bDP8Y-7bAp4T-9bBdFG-njVmBy-njARiM-pqdcd5-paKqh3-njAFZC-8caKj7-7915q3-njT7L2-7bAegP-5ZYPTS-njAH6q-tp53u-nhQE3j-njAHy9-njARqF-9NCzNg-74AkXD-6MJNi3-tp53z-7bDUpu-tp53B">Brahma Kumaris</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the same time, India is <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/coals-claim-on-indias-energy-future-weakens-further-63636">taking steps to curb coal investments</a>. The choice between renewables and coal in India might be the most important factor when it comes to global efforts to reduce emissions.</p>
<h2>3. Green jobs are good for the economy</h2>
<p>Every major transition is accompanied by fears of job losses. But the positive economic impacts of new technologies are given less attention. In 2014, <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Jobs_Annual_Review_2015.pdf">more than 7.7 million people worked in the renewables sector</a>, excluding large hydropower plants. A third of these jobs were in the photovoltaic sector, and an additional one million were employed in wind power – technologies which barely existed two decades ago.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_Measuring-the-Economics_2016.pdf">Another report</a>, shows that doubling the share of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 would triple the number of jobs in the sector and increase global GDP by 1.1%. That’s the equivalent to US $1.3 trillion. In 2016, India plans to roll out 30 million solar irrigation pumps, which would have significant economic and sustainable development benefits for farmers, <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/69425">saving US$3 billion per year on subsidies</a>.</p>
<p>The funds required for this transition could be partly covered by savings from removing fossil fuel subsidies. <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42940.0">The IMF has found</a> that elimination of post-tax subsidies in 2015 would have increased government revenues by US$2.9 trillion and significantly reduced environmental and social impacts of fossil fuels. </p>
<p>In May 2016, G7 leaders <a href="http://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000160266.pdf">committed</a> to eliminate “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” by 2025. The G20 is also under pressure to agree on a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-finance-energy-subsidies-idUSKCN0ZE1XI">timetable for phasing out subsidies</a>.</p>
<h2>Time for leadership</h2>
<p>The ingredients for transforming energy systems and decarbonising the economy are already there. We are deploying more technologies that can peak emissions and accelerate their decrease. </p>
<p>To speed up this transformation, governments must adopt policies that ensure investments in renewable energy are secure and provide clear signposts for everyone participating in the process of decarbonisation. </p>
<p>Political leadership now is fundamental to prevent a slide-back to coal, and to stand up to vested interests, while providing finance and technology to the regions that need it most.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare works for and owns shares in Climate Analytics, a non profit science based institute with headquarters in Berlin. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics have received research grants, Foundation and German Government International Climate Initiative funding for research and activities related to this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrzej Ancygier is affiliated with Climate Analytics and Environmental Policy Research Center in Berlin. He is also teaching at the New York University on subjects relating to environmental policy and social movements. </span></em></p>Amid the gloom, here are some hopeful signs that we can meet our climate obligations.Bill Hare, Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchAndrzej Ancygier, Climate Policy Analyst, Lecturer, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/615032016-06-26T19:59:37Z2016-06-26T19:59:37ZWind and solar PV have won the race – it’s too late for other clean energy technologies<p>Across the world, solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind are the dominant clean energy technologies. This dominance is likely to become overwhelming over the next few years, preventing other clean energy technologies (including carbon capture and storage, nuclear and other renewables) from growing much.</p>
<p>As the graph below shows, PV and wind constitute half of new generation capacity installed worldwide, with fossil, nuclear, hydro and all other renewable energy sources making up the other half. In Australia this dominance is even clearer, with PV and wind constituting <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0ahUKEwi39ZfwqL_NAhWEGpQKHU_tCdUQFggoMAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.industry.gov.au%2FOffice-of-the-Chief-Economist%2FPublications%2FDocuments%2Fmegp%2F2015-Electricity-Generation-Major-Projects.pdf&usg=AFQjCNHn_PbNbStU-bSA1M32vOONnPT74Q&cad=rja">virtually all new generation capacity</a>.</p>
<p>Moreover, this trend is set to continue. Wind and PV installation rates grew by 19% in 2015 worldwide, while rates for other technologies were static or declined.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AMQdk/1/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>PV and wind dominate because they have already achieved commercial scale, are cheap (and set to get cheaper), and are not constrained by fuel availability, environmental considerations, construction materials, water supply, or security issues.</p>
<p>In fact, PV and wind now have such a large head start that no other low-emission generation technology has a reasonable prospect of catching them. Conventional hydro power cannot keep pace because each country will sooner or later run out of rivers to dam, and biomass availability is severely limited. </p>
<p>Heroic growth rates would be required for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nuclear-power">nuclear</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/carbon-capture-and-storage">carbon capture and storage</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/concentrated-solar-thermal">concentrating solar thermal</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-ocean-energy-needs-a-cyberinfrastructure-to-thrive-37087">ocean energy</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-geothermal-energy-12913">geothermal</a> to span the 20- to 200-fold difference in annual installation scale to catch wind and PV – which are themselves growing rapidly.</p>
<p>Both wind and PV access massive economies of scale. Their ability to saturate national electricity markets around the world severely constrains other low-emission technologies. Some of the other technologies may become significant in some regions, but these will essentially be niche markets, such as geothermal in Iceland, or hydro power in Tasmania.</p>
<p>Around 80% of the energy sector could be electrified in the next two decades, including electrification of land transport (vehicles and public transport) and electric heat pumps for heat production. This will further increase opportunities for PV and wind, and allows for the elimination of two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions (based upon sectoral breakdown of national emissions data).</p>
<h2>Storage and integration</h2>
<p>What about the oft-cited problems with the variable nature of photovoltaics and wind energy? Fortunately, there is range of solutions that can help them achieve high levels of grid penetration. </p>
<p>While individual PV and wind generators can have very variable outputs, the combined output of thousands of generators is in fact quite predictable when coupled with good weather forecasting and smoothed out over a wide area. </p>
<p>What’s more, PV and wind often produce power under different weather conditions – storms favour wind, whereas calm conditions are often sunny. Rapid improvements in high-voltage DC transmission allows large amounts of power to be transmitted cheaply and efficiently over thousands of kilometres, meaning that the impact of local weather is less important.</p>
<p>Another option is “load management”, in which power demands for things like domestic and commercial water heating, and household and electric car battery charging, are moved from night time to day to coincide with availability of sun and wind. Existing hydro and gas or biogas generators, operated for just a small fraction of the year, can also help. </p>
<p>Finally, mass power storage is already available in the form of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-pushing-water-uphill-can-solve-our-renewable-energy-issues-28196">pumped hydro energy storage (PHES)</a>, in which surplus energy is used to pump water uphill to a storage reservoir, which is then released through a turbine to recover around 80% of the stored energy later on. This technology constitutes 99% of electricity storage worldwide and is overwhelmingly dominant in terms of new storage capacity installed each year (3.4 Gigawatts in 2015).</p>
<p>Australia already has several PHES facilities, such as <a href="http://www.csenergy.com.au/content-(168)-wivenhoe.htm">Wivenhoe</a> near Brisbane and <a href="http://www.snowyhydro.com.au/energy/hydro/pumping-stations/">Tumut 3</a> in the Snowy Mountains. All of these are <a href="https://theconversation.com/pumped-hydro-energy-storage-making-better-use-of-wind-18565">at least 30 years old</a>, but more can be built to accommodate the storage needs of new wind and PV capacity. Modelling underway at the Australian National University shows that reservoirs containing enough water for only 3-8 hours of grid operation is sufficient to stabilise a grid with about 90% PV and wind – mostly to shift daytime solar power for use at night.</p>
<p>This would require only a few hundred hectares of reservoirs for the Australian grid, and could be accomplished by building a series of “off-river” pumped hydro storages. Unlike conventional “on-river” hydro power, off-river PHES requires pairs of hectare-scale reservoirs, rather like oversized farm dams, located in steep, hilly, farm country, separated by an altitude difference of 200-1000 metres, and joined by a pipe containing a pump and turbine. </p>
<p>One example is the proposed <a href="http://www.genexpower.com.au">Kidston project in an old gold mine in north Queensland</a>. In these systems water goes around a closed loop, they consume very little water (evaporation minus rainfall), and have a much smaller environmental impact than river-based systems. </p>
<h2>How renewables can dominate Australian energy</h2>
<p>In Australia, if wind and PV continue at the installation rate required to reach the 2020 renewable energy target (about 1 GW per year each), we would hit 50% renewable electricity by 2030. This rises to 80% if the installation rates double to 2 GW per year each under a more ambitious renewable energy target – the barriers to which are probably more political than technological. </p>
<p>PV and wind will be overwhelmingly dominant in the renewable energy transition because there isn’t time for another low-emission technology to catch them before they saturate the market.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BMk23/2/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Wind, PV, PHES, HVDC and heat pumps are proven renewable energy solutions in large-scale deployment (100-1,000 GW installed worldwide for each). These technologies can drive rapid and deep cuts to the energy sector’s greenhouse emissions without any heroic assumptions. </p>
<p>Apart from a modest contribution from existing hydroelectricity, other low-emission technologies are unlikely to make significant contributions in the foreseeable future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers is a professor engineering at the Australian National University. He works in the area of photovoltaics, supported by grants from ARENA, the ARC, private companies and other bodies.</span></em></p>Photovoltaics and wind energy now have such a large head start that no other low-emission generation technology has a reasonable prospect of catching them.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/542542016-02-18T03:59:24Z2016-02-18T03:59:24ZHow new energy technologies can help South Africa ease its energy crunch<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/111758/original/image-20160217-19260-1jtb5qd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Titanium ore can be used to develop lithium ion batteries and supercapacitors, which can aid South Africa's energy problems.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Energy is an economic driver of both developed and developing countries. South Africa over the past few years has faced an energy crisis with rolling blackouts between 2008 and 2015. Part of the problem has been attributed to mismanagement by the state-owned utility company <a href="http://cdn.bdlive.co.za/ebooks/Eskom%20and%20the%20SA%20energy%20crisis.pdf">Eskom</a>, particularly the shortcomings of maintenance plans on several plants.</p>
<p>But South Africa has two things going for it that could help it out of its current crisis. By developing a strong nanotechnology capability and applying this to its rich mineral reserves the country is well-placed to develop new energy technologies.</p>
<p>South Africa’s urgently needs to diversify its energy sources for three reasons:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the country must alleviate its reliance on the national power grid. Total reliance on the grid is generally unreliable; </p></li>
<li><p>it needs to reduce its reliance on coal. South Africa derives about 90% of its energy from <a href="http://www.energy.gov.za/files/electricity_frame.html">coal-fired power stations</a>. Coal is a non-renewable resource, has a large carbon footprint which contributes to climate change and affects water resources, air quality and biodiversity; and</p></li>
<li><p>more than 1.5 million households in remote areas of the country are without electricity. They are unlikely to be connected to the grid any time soon due to the high cost involved. The solution is to provide off-the-grid technologies. These must be cheap, environmentally friendly, localised for homes and customised with the local know-how.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The South African government has made visible strides to diversify energy sources. These include the <a href="http://metrowind.co.za/wind-energy-sa/eskom">MetroWind</a> project in the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality and the <a href="http://deaarsolar.co.za/">Solar Farm</a>in De Aar. The introduction of additional nuclear power stations is also another example, despite being highly <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2015-11-05-why-south-africa-should-not-build-eight-new-nuclear-power-stations">controversial</a>.</p>
<p>But more needs to be done.</p>
<h2>Nanotechnology</h2>
<p>Nanotechnology has already shown that it has the <a href="http://www.nanowerk.com/nanotechnology-in-energy.php">potential to alleviate energy problems</a>. Nanotechnology is described as the manipulation of matter at an atomic, molecular and supramolecular scale. </p>
<p>It can also yield materials with new properties and the miniaturisation of devices. For example, since the discovery of graphene, a single atomic layer of graphite, <a href="http://www.graphenea.com/pages/graphene-uses-applications#.VsMcbW2HuuI">several applications</a> in biological engineering, electronics and composite materials have been identified. These include economic and efficient devices like solar cells and lithium ion secondary batteries. </p>
<p>Nanotechnology has seen an incredible increase in commercialisation. Nearly 10,000 patents have been filed by large corporations since its beginning in 1991. There are <a href="http://discovermagazine.com/galleries/zen-photo/n/nanotech-products">already</a> a number of nanotechnology products and solutions on the market. Examples include Miller’s beer bottling composites, Armor’s N-Force line bulletproof vests and printed solar cells produced by Nanosolar – as well as Samsung’s nanotechnology television.</p>
<p>The advent of nanotechnology in South Africa began with the <a href="http://www.sani.org.za/">South African Nanotechnology Initiative</a> in 2002. This was followed by the a national nanotechnology <a href="http://www.gov.za/sites/www.gov.za/files/DST_Nanotech_18012006_0.pdf">strategy</a> in 2003.</p>
<p>The government has spent more than R450 million in nanotechnology and nanosciences research since 2006. For example, two national innovation <a href="http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/sa-launches-two-nanotechnology-innovation-centres-2007-11-26">centres</a> have been set up and funding has been made available for <a href="http://hicd.nrf.ac.za/?q=node/19">equipment</a>. There has also been <a href="http://hicd.nrf.ac.za/?q=node/20">flagship</a> funding. </p>
<p>The country could be globally competitive in this field due to the infancy of the technology. As such, there are plenty of opportunities to make novel discoveries in South Africa.</p>
<h2>Mineral wealth</h2>
<p>There is another major advantage South Africa has that could help diversify its energy supply. It has an abundance of mineral wealth with an estimated value of <a href="http://www.southafrica.info/business/economy/sectors/mining.htm#.VsLu0G2HuuI">US$2.5 trillion</a>. The country has the world’s <a href="http://www.usgs.gov/">largest reserves</a> of manganese and platinum group metals. It also has massive reserves of gold, diamonds, chromite ore and vanadium. </p>
<p>Through beneficiation and nanotechnology these resources could be used to cater for the development of new energy technologies. Research in beneficiation of minerals for energy applications is gaining momentum. For example, Anglo American and the Department of Science and Technology have embarked on a partnership to convert hydrogen into electricity.</p>
<p>The Council for Scientific and Industrial research also aims to develop low cost lithium ion batteries and supercapacitors using locally mined manganese and titanium ores. There is <a href="http://www.mintek.co.za/technical-divisions/advanced-materials-amd/nanotechnology/">collaborative research</a>to use minerals like gold to synthesize nanomaterials for application in photovoltaics. </p>
<p>A photovoltaic device has the ability to harvest light and convert it to an electrical current. But to be sustainable, the technology needs to be developed taking into account South African climatic conditions.</p>
<p>The current <a href="http://www.solairedirect.co.za/activities.html">photovoltaic market</a> relies on importing solar cells or panels from Europe, Asia and the US for local assembly to produce arrays. South African UV index is one of the highest in the world which reduces the lifespan of solar panels. The key to a thriving and profitable photovoltaic sector therefore lies in local production and research and development to support the sector.</p>
<p>South Africa has a real opportunity to kill two birds with one stone. The country can reinvent the now seemingly frail mining sector through beneficiation. It can also create a new sector encompassing energy production through photovoltaics and energy storage through batteries. This will not only cater for all our energy needs but also create new jobs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54254/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nosipho Moloto receives funding from the NRF. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Siyabonga P. Ngubane receives funding from NRF </span></em></p>South Africa his rich in minerals that, combined with the development of nanotechnology, can be used to help it develop new energy technologies.Nosipho Moloto, Associate Professor, Department of Chemistry, University of the WitwatersrandSiyabonga P. Ngubane, Lecturer in Chemistry, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/390322015-03-24T09:45:18Z2015-03-24T09:45:18ZWhy rooftop solar is disruptive to utilities – and the grid<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75555/original/image-20150320-14620-1ig0dug.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With rooftop solar installations soaring, utilities are nervous -- for a few reasons. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/greensmps/9180614416/in/photolist-eZg3Ps-4tmVnd-6gjgXt-c3bZ9d-bUcXXh-9duTLn-ceWmTs-bUcXVA-dp5dJq-dp556H-dp5dMu-dp55hF-dp54U6-dp5e8E-dp55eP-9d5vVG-9duUrx-amnfSg-9dxXPQ-5RwsA-abmUdb-abj3cB-abmStu-abmTty-abmTfY-9duVwt-9dy1cf-9dxZzJ-9dxXHG-9dxYkj-9dxYZY-9duUcv-9dxZ4U-9duVAZ-9duWjg-9oSWwC-9dxZJG-a57vJM-9duUM2-gCrAfo-6cr8S5-8ht37K-8HRw9Q-amp4zo-9dxXvy-9duTWv-9dxXyY-9duUnR-9dxZ97-48JQVB">Greens MPs</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A report earlier this month detailed how electric utilities were working <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/utilities-sensing-threat-put-squeeze-on-booming-solar-roof-industry/2015/03/07/2d916f88-c1c9-11e4-ad5c-3b8ce89f1b89_story.html">through state regulators</a> to stunt the spread of rooftop solar, the latest tactic in a campaign an industry group started three years ago.</p>
<p>What worries utilities so much? At one level, the problem is obvious: customers with rooftop solar panels buy less energy and pay less to utilities. But the issue is not limited to giant utility companies’ earnings potential. After all, we all use electricity and rely on utilities to maintain the power infrastructure. </p>
<p>Why is solar so threatening to utilities? And how is the rapid growth of solar changing how the grid works? The answers lie in the sometimes-arcane world of electric utilities and their business model. In all the change, though, there needs to be a discussion over how solar fits into the grid and how to ensure grid reliability. </p>
<h2>Disruptive</h2>
<p>Power-generating panels, called solar photovoltaics (PV), represent the fastest-growing source of electric power in the United States. In percentage terms, <a href="http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-industry-data">installed PV</a> has grown four-fold over the past several years, and costs have fallen as rapidly as installations have risen.</p>
<p>The point of so-called “grid parity,” where the cost of generating electricity from solar PV falls to the point of being competitive with conventional power generation sources such as coal or natural gas, appears to be fast approaching. In some states, most notably Hawai'i, it has probably already arrived.</p>
<p>Large-scale solar power plants will continue to get built. But it is in the many millions of rooftops (and in the future, building facades) where the real potential for solar energy as a disruptive technology is taking shape. By installing solar panels, a consumer pays the utility less and, for the first time, becomes an energy producer rather than a consumer only. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75558/original/image-20150320-14617-q19q5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75558/original/image-20150320-14617-q19q5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75558/original/image-20150320-14617-q19q5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75558/original/image-20150320-14617-q19q5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75558/original/image-20150320-14617-q19q5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75558/original/image-20150320-14617-q19q5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75558/original/image-20150320-14617-q19q5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75558/original/image-20150320-14617-q19q5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As more solar comes online, demand on centralized power plants declines, making it harder to maintain reliability of service.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/feldbech/5460008306/in/photolist-9jtYff-hmiKnT-6wufU3-bD77U4-dbjgJb-5KpACk-5KpAFp-9b32GM-eaoXRd-9npQMw-9npNFA-9npx75-9nms3Z-9npQvJ-9nmKkk-9nmUZX-9nmqX6-9npLZb-9nmrpv-9nmusk-9npWyE-9npRys-9nmPJg-9npPf3-9nmTYi-9nmK5x-hmiBcV-hmivWp-93FWGc-hmhdDc-hmh5J4-hmhDR5-hmgYVk-otT7tQ-bzkfA5-5EKPDf-93K2zs-pKDTKp-oJkPe9-pKFHpo-dgGSr7-4vmCJ8-6qCxx2-5kuqrH-6qCxo2-7Zn1Rh-e37L1v-2uDzwQ-4TEbAj-efrMWx">Nikolaj F. Rasmussen</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Electric utilities in many states have responded in ways that, on the surface, conjure up stereotypical images of big companies trying to crush small competitors. Utilities have asked their state regulators to assess high fees on homeowners that install solar PV panels but maintain their connection to the electric grid. An Arizona utility, for instance, proposed levying a monthly US$50 grid interconnection fee for consumers with solar PV.</p>
<p>Net metering rules – which allow homeowners to sell surplus electricity from their solar panels back to the grid - are being challenged as well. Utilities are seeking additional restrictions on net metering or to reduce the price they pay homeowners for this surplus power.</p>
<h2>Monopolies behaving badly?</h2>
<p>The loss of revenue from solar PV is primarily happening in sunny states such as California and Arizona but also in less-sunny New Jersey and others states with generous solar incentive programs. </p>
<p>But what happens when utilities – which, after all, are in the business of selling electricity – continue to lose business? The more kilowatt-hours generated by rooftop solar panels, the fewer kilowatt-hours sold by utilities. With fewer kilowatt-hours sold, utilities have a harder time justifying investments in new power stations, transformers and other types of capital investments that utilities earn money from.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75557/original/image-20150320-14636-xh6ekg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75557/original/image-20150320-14636-xh6ekg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75557/original/image-20150320-14636-xh6ekg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75557/original/image-20150320-14636-xh6ekg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75557/original/image-20150320-14636-xh6ekg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75557/original/image-20150320-14636-xh6ekg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75557/original/image-20150320-14636-xh6ekg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75557/original/image-20150320-14636-xh6ekg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How to pay for upkeep? We all rely on the grid and, ultimately, utility customers pay for it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/miuenski/4306597812/in/photolist-7yyruq-aNuQFk-mEktVs-66ZeQs-pRGFWT-7m5iFD-dsK8g1-89jWbi-4tu7tz-6EDh6y-cbaifu-jD7V2E-4ttskN-aLKvn-dnxrVt-apwzFu-dpyNTV-4tpps4-dCwMBa-fCUam9-6svjsB-evLcFc-jDFQvD-bLHrwi-agbqUM-8yPmcy-h7DAeh-h7FQqi-h7EBfq-h7FSjZ-h7ENKs-4GcgPB-59728m-auWKno-anWBN2-6AgNsd-hBYzkm-6AgNrS-6Ahz1G-dCCdj1-56WF3o-fxSc6v-e9Pms5-7ufpER-t3fGv-7gp3Ys-dBVLbr-a4qpWS-o3Ppos-nNntTs">miuenski miuenski</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While it makes economists cringe, the use of the political system to disadvantage competitors is hardly a novel business strategy. Yet the response of some utilities to the rapid growth in rooftop solar cannot, however, be so simply portrayed as incumbents guarding their turf at all costs.</p>
<p>Electric utilities have a unique role in society and the economy, one that is rooted in a set of arrangements with state regulators that goes back nearly a century. In exchange for being granted a geographic monopoly on the distribution of electric power, the utility is responsible for ensuring that its transmission and distribution systems operate reliably. In other words, it is the utility’s responsibility to ensure that blackouts occur infrequently and with short duration. </p>
<p>Regulators, meanwhile, need to allow the utility to recover the costs associated with maintaining the grid infrastructure and ensuring reliability. So ultimately, the costs of building and maintaining a reliable system fall, for the most part, on utilities and their ratepayers.</p>
<h2>Infamous duck curve</h2>
<p>At first blush, the rise in rooftop solar installations would seem like a boon for reliability - after all, solar panels can be installed so that peak solar PV production is roughly correlated with the hours of peak electricity demand. The more power that is taken off the grid and placed onto solar panels, it would seem, the lower the blackout risk is.</p>
<p>There is some truth to this. In fact, electric system operators have been paying customers to take demand off the grid for many years during times when the grid is stressed. </p>
<p>But because the boom in rooftop solar PV is not controlled by utilities, there are some genuine implications for the cost of keeping the rest of the grid operating reliably. With enough rooftop solar, the daily patterns of power supply and demand change dramatically. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75551/original/image-20150320-14595-ccllye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75551/original/image-20150320-14595-ccllye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75551/original/image-20150320-14595-ccllye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75551/original/image-20150320-14595-ccllye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75551/original/image-20150320-14595-ccllye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75551/original/image-20150320-14595-ccllye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75551/original/image-20150320-14595-ccllye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75551/original/image-20150320-14595-ccllye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This famous graph, called the duck curve, shows how rooftop solar panels are supplying so much power during the day that the demand on central power generators is falling dramatically.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.caiso.com/Documents/FlexibleResourcesHelpRenewables_FastFacts.pdf">California ISO</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One of the best-known analyses of this change and its potential costs is known as the “duck curve” from the California Independent System Operator (see figure, above). A typical day’s electricity demand in California has historically featured two peaks – one in the morning and a larger one in the afternoon. There’s a trough, or “shoulder,” period between them. Fleets of different power plants are fired up to meet this pattern of daily electricity demand and to match the ramp-up and ramp-down. </p>
<p>Now that California has substantial solar on its grid, the daily demand curve is starting to look very different. With solar panels cranking out power during the midday hours, the overall demand for power from the grid – that is, from central power plants – during the shoulder period in the middle of the day declines substantially. Solar PV energy production could grow so much that by 2020 the demand for grid-provided electricity would be lower at 12:00 noon than at 12:00 midnight. The two peak periods form the head and tail of the duck; this dip in the middle of the day forms the belly of the duck.</p>
<h2>Cord cutting from the grid</h2>
<p>Normally, lowering the demand for electricity would be good for society. Costs would decline and stress on the grid would decrease. But the deep dip in grid demand during the middle of the day – the duck’s belly – has significant implications for the costs of keeping the grid operational. </p>
<p>It is not the case necessarily that fewer power plants would be needed. Instead, different power plants would be needed - ones that could rapidly adjust output to offset the rise in solar PV production. The solution may well involve a mix of power plants and other <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2014/07/21/utilities-cry-fowl-over-duck-chart-and-distributed-solar-powercrying-fowl-or-crying-wolf-open-season-on-the-utilitys-solar-duck-chart/">strategies to control demand</a> during certain hours. California has recently set up an entirely new market for this so-called “ramping” capability, and the costs will eventually trickle down to ratepayers in the state.</p>
<p>The second implication for the cost of maintaining reliability will seem familiar to anyone who has thought about the telephone company. The rise of “cord cutters” - people with a cell phone but no land-line - places land-line phone companies in a quandary. They must continue to maintain their network infrastructure with fewer customers to pay for it. </p>
<p>Electric utilities are not quite there yet, but the day could well be coming. Unused power plants could be retired, but electric transmission lines, substations and other delivery infrastructure generally cannot simply be declared unused and retired because that infrastructure is collectively needed for reliability. Ratepayers typically support this infrastructure through the several cents paid for every kilowatt-hour they consume. </p>
<p>Homeowners that install solar PV are, in most places, shifting the cost of this infrastructure to ratepayers that have not installed solar panels. There is thus the potential to create a type of “<a href="http://newsroom.accenture.com/news/utilities-face-significant-revenue-losses-from-growth-of-solar-storage-and-energy-efficiency-accenture-research-shows.htm">death spiral</a>.” The more homeowners that install rooftop solar, the more expensive the grid maintenance costs become for everyone else, which in turn encourages more homeowners to install solar panels to avoid higher utility costs.</p>
<p>In the near term, states with high penetration of rooftop solar may need to restructure how the grid is paid for. This technology will eventually force a conversation about the fundamental role of the electric utility and who should have ultimate responsibility for providing reliable electricity, if anyone. Going off the grid has a certain appeal to an increasing segment of the population, but it is far from clear that such a distributed system can deliver the same level of reliability at such a low cost.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39032/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seth Blumsack receives funding from the National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, Environmental Protection Agency, electric utilities and natural gas pipeline companies.</span></em></p>Electric utilities want to quash distributed solar because they don’t want the competition, right? Perhaps, but if you rely at all on the grid, you have a stake in this fight, too.Seth Blumsack, Associate Professor, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.