tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/somalia-famine-36278/articlesSomalia famine – The Conversation2022-10-17T02:04:31Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1919522022-10-17T02:04:31Z2022-10-17T02:04:31ZFamine should not exist in 2022, yet Somalia faces its worst yet. Wealthy countries, pay your dues<p>More than a quarter of a million people <a href="https://fsnau.org/downloads/Somalia_Mortality_Estimates_Final_Report_8May2013_upload.pdf">died of hunger in Somalia</a> in 2011 – half of them children younger than five. The situation in Somalia in the coming months <a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1155883/?iso3=SOM">could be a great deal worse</a>, despite <a href="https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/dangerous-delay-2-the-cost-of-inaction-621373/">global commitments</a> to never let the 2011 famine happen again. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1155883/?iso3=SOM">United Nations predicts</a> more than 300,000 people in Somalia will be in famine by December.</p>
<p>Somalia is home to <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/country/SO">16 million people</a> and has a rich history reaching back to before the Roman Empire. Somali people were <a href="https://www.britishmuseum.org/collection/search?place=Somalia&subject=rock%20art&image=true&view=grid&sort=object_name__asc&page=1">producing beautiful rock art</a> in the third millennium BC, <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/718184">trading with Ancient Egypt</a> and establishing <a href="https://www.islamic-relief.org.uk/somalia-a-forgotten-past/">important masjids and mosques</a> in Mogadishu from the 7th and 13th Centuries onwards. </p>
<p>More recently, however, the people of Somalia have endured wars, <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/desert-locust-situation-update-6-january-2022-small-swarms-persist-ne-somalia">locust plagues</a>, flash flooding, pandemics and, now, <a href="https://fsnau.org/downloads/Rainfall-for-Somalia-over-the-years-2003-Aug-2022.pdf">extreme drought</a>. Today, crisis on top of crisis means <a href="https://www.unocha.org/somalia">7 million people</a> are in need of humanitarian assistance – <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/08/1124472">two million more</a> than just three months ago. </p>
<p>Despite historic levels of drought and hunger, <a href="https://nexusom.org/">Somali</a> <a href="https://www.shaqodoon.org/about">civil</a> society continues to find ways to support people at risk of starvation. But additional help is needed. To date, the international community has <a href="https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/dangerous-delay-2-the-cost-of-inaction-621373/">largely failed the Somali population</a>. In 2022, the risk of famine should not exist.</p>
<h2>Defining ‘famine’</h2>
<p>There is a well established and globally recognised <a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/">system</a> of categorising how close to famine people are. “Famine” is the worst of five levels. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/famine-facts/en/">For an area to be declared</a> in a “famine”, there must be hard evidence of very high levels of child malnutrition (over 30%), very high levels of death (for every 10,000 people, more than two people dying every day), and extreme levels of hunger (more than one in five households going without food).</p>
<p>In 2022, no-one should suffer from a lack of food, let alone extreme starvation: <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/agricultural-production">the world is producing more food than ever before</a>. And in 2011, humanitarian aid agencies and civil society organisations launched the <a href="https://hungercharter.wordpress.com/charter-to-end-extreme-hunger/">Charter to End Extreme Hunger</a> at the UN in New York, clearly outlining five steps to take to avoid famine. </p>
<p>Since then, it has been endorsed by <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2011/09/389422">the UN</a>, <a href="https://hungercharter.wordpress.com/2011/10/09/norway-endorses-the-charter/">world leaders</a>, and dozens of humanitarian organisations. </p>
<h2>So, why is this happening again?</h2>
<p>The past <a href="https://fsnau.org/downloads/Climate-Update-September-2022.pdf">four rainy seasons</a> in Somalia have failed to materialise and the fifth is very likely to underperform as well. </p>
<p>Crops <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652622015037?casa_token=I8ncKbMfn8UAAAAA:rFfqJjHekFaa4V2cyCTmH_DDP7_z3Ju3AeqCVHrm1XeLLbgjQ8c-LZRGpLL1KWvyZwMAP5xBZg">can’t grow</a> to their full potential, if at all in some areas. The camel, goat and cattle herds of Somali pastoralists <a href="https://fsnau.org/downloads/Climate-Update-September-2022.pdf">don’t have enough vegetation</a> to eat nor enough accessible water to drink - already, <a href="https://fews.net/sites/default/files/Joint%20Statement%20Horn%20of%20Africa%209%20June%202022.pdf">millions of livestock</a> have perished in the current drought.</p>
<p>Climate change underpins this continued lack of rainfall. Somalia is ranked <a href="https://gain-new.crc.nd.edu/ranking/vulnerability">second-most vulnerable</a> (after Niger) to the adverse impacts of climate change, which <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020EF001502">will likely cause</a> Somalia to experience more drought, affecting more land area, with fewer regular rainy seasons.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-year-of-hunger-how-the-russia-ukraine-war-is-worsening-climate-linked-food-shortages-181160">A year of hunger: how the Russia-Ukraine war is worsening climate-linked food shortages</a>
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<p>The extreme difficulties of prolonged drought are hard for anyone to cope with, especially if there is little to no safety net to catch people during hard times. Indeed, food prices <a href="https://fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/Somalia-ALERT-20220905.pdf">are higher now</a> than during the 2011 famine. </p>
<p>Somalia does have a nascent social safety net called <a href="https://baxnaano.so/">Baxnaano</a>. It aims to build a bridge beyond the humanitarian approach, addressing immediate food security and nutrition issues, while also laying the foundations for a stronger workforce. But it is still at the pilot stage. </p>
<p><a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-various-layers-to-the-somaliland-puntland-discord">The country is divided in three</a>: south-central Somalia, the self-declared independent region of Somaliland, and the autonomous state of Puntland in the north. The various governments are not able to reach some parts of the country or provide adequate safety nets for Somalis experiencing the harsh challenges of a changing climate.</p>
<p>That said, some lessons have been learned by Somali governments from previous disasters. In 2021, the <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/fao-and-government-somalia-open-permanent-desert-locust-monitoring-centre">National Desert Locust Monitoring and Control Centre</a> was established, along with the <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/early-warning-system-helps-farmers-survive-floods-and-droughts">Drought Operations Coordination Center</a> in Puntland, which predicts upcoming droughts and climate extremes. </p>
<p>This centre and <a href="https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/dangerous-delay-2-the-cost-of-inaction-621373/">many others</a> warned Somalis and the world of the seriousness of the predicted drought back in early 2020. They have continued to <a href="https://fews.net/sites/default/files/Press%20Release%20-%20Somalia%20Famine%20Projection.pdf">repeat these warnings</a> as the situation deteriorated. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/somalia-on-the-brink-of-famine-aid-efforts-risk-failing-marginalised-communities-yet-again-190174">Somalia on the brink of famine: aid efforts risk failing marginalised communities yet again</a>
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<p>These warnings fell on largely deaf ears until only very recently. The coordinated plan to respond to the Somali crisis had received <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-humanitarian-bulletin-march-2022">only US$56 million</a> in March, but needs US$1.5 billion to be properly implemented. </p>
<p>While the international community’s efforts have ramped up in recent months, the plan to provide life-saving support <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-humanitarian-funding-overview-13-october-2022?_gl=1*16roppg*_ga*MTgwMTI5NzAxNi4xNjU2NDU4NjQ1*_ga_E60ZNX2F68*MTY2NTk2NTYxMi43LjEuMTY2NTk2NzA4OS4zNC4wLjA.">is still missing US$409 million</a>. </p>
<h2>What needs to change?</h2>
<p>Between October and December, the drought is expected to force 6.7 million people across Somalia into <a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1155883/?iso3=SOM">acute food insecurity</a>, a technical term meaning people are close to starving. </p>
<p>International assistance needed to be provided at scale when the first warnings were shared. This was <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2211912412000107?casa_token=mfJTqMlIQwYAAAAA:csglmkuiEdxhz049X90Ae_7DZ-tHQVZJbwh6FGF39rzsIdAzwiglB_wF4l2fd0cUYKbY_PtUVw">clearly stated back in 2011</a>.</p>
<p>This includes supporting preventative and <a href="https://www.somrep.org/">resilience-building initiatives</a>, such as <a href="https://www.somrep.org/news/somrep-drought-appeal">rehabilitating water points</a> and <a href="https://www.somrep.org/news/mini-greenhouses-baidoa-sws-oct-2021">establishing mini greenhouses</a>. Such initiatives will enable Somalis to help others prepare for difficult times and get through the worst impacts of the changing climate.</p>
<p>And, perhaps most importantly, wealthy countries should compensate Somalis for the catastrophic impacts climate change is having on their lives. </p>
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<p>This compensation - known as “loss and damage financing” in UN circles – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/egypt-working-prioritize-loss-damage-cop27-2022-09-28/">will be a central topic</a> at the upcoming international climate change summit <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/sharm-el-sheikh-climate-change-conference-november-2022/information-for-cop-27-participants-a-z">COP27</a>, held in Egypt in November. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/loss-damage-climate-change">Loss and damage</a> refers to climate change harms that can’t be prevented, mitigated, or sometimes even prepared for. Think rising sea levels destroying entire ways of life, or disasters that are happening so often, so severely, that even insurance companies refuse to insure people against them.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/almost-200-nations-are-set-to-tackle-climate-change-at-cop27-in-egypt-is-this-just-a-talkfest-or-does-the-meeting-actually-matter-191586">Almost 200 nations are set to tackle climate change at COP27 in Egypt. Is this just a talkfest, or does the meeting actually matter?</a>
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<p>Somalis produce <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT?locations=SO">a tiny, tiny amount</a> of greenhouse gas emissions compared to the high-income countries of the world. Yet, they are experiencing some of the worst impacts of climate change, as the current drought and hunger crisis so clearly demonstrates. </p>
<p>COP27 should lead to Somalis, and the many millions more around the world hit hard by climate change, being financially compensated by the countries and corporations most responsible for changing the climate.</p>
<h2>How can I help?</h2>
<p>The crisis in Somalia will only worsen in the coming weeks. If you are in a position to donate, consider the following charities: </p>
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<li><p><a href="https://bulshokaab.com/">Bulsho Kaab</a>: a Somali donation-based crowdfunding platform that supports communities and youth initiatives across Somali regions.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/what-we-do/countries/somalia">Oxfam</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.msf.org/somalia">Médecins Sans Frontières</a> </p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.redcross.org.au/hungercrisis/">Red Cross’ Global Hunger Crisis Appeal</a></p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191952/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Hallwright does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The UN predicts more than 300,000 people in Somalia will be in famine by December. 7 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. Here’s how you can help.Joshua Hallwright, Deputy Director, Centre for Humanitarian Leadership , Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/841662017-10-04T14:47:59Z2017-10-04T14:47:59ZSomalia conflict and famine: the causes are bad governance, not climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186234/original/file-20170915-8108-nwz3u3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Somalia is a case of subtle connections between drought, food insecurity and conflict.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/oxfameastafrica/5758383536/">Oxfam East Africa</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The link between climate change and violent conflict is a complex one. In <a href="http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Pastoralists-move-to-north-Uganda-in-search-of-food/2558-3820606-7ynydxz/index.html">specific circumstances</a> changing weather patterns may lead to conflict. For example, people may be forced to leave their homes or grazing land and encroach on other communities. But the links are often <a href="https://theconversation.com/link-between-climate-change-and-armed-conflict-is-exaggerated-new-study-67182">exaggerated</a> and <a href="http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-1217-hsiang-burke-climate-change-violence-20151217-story.html">oversimplified</a>. </p>
<p>Somalia is a case of subtle connections between drought, food insecurity and conflict. Understanding these connections better – and identifying other relevant factors – could help prevent suffering in future.</p>
<p>The people of Somalia have been through regular cycles of violence and food insecurity in the last few decades. </p>
<h2>Food and conflict</h2>
<p>Since the collapse of the central government in 1991, there have been at least seven periods of food insecurity that coincided with droughts. Some were times of famine, which the <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/2017-03-07/when-does-a-food-crisis-become-a-famine/">UN defines</a> according to certain measures of hunger, malnutrition and death, and others were <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19923388">food crises</a>, when hunger and malnutrition rose sharply. The major events were: a famine in 1991–92, food crises in 1999–2000, 2006 and 2008, another famine in 2011–12, a food crisis in 2014 and a food crisis verging on famine in 2016–17.</p>
<p>At the same time, the country has been in a state of civil war. Conflict in Somalia has deep political roots that go back decades. After the Somali-Ethiopian war in 1977-78 drained the government’s coffers, severe <a href="http://dspace-roma3.caspur.it/bitstream/2307/1033/5/65_M.A.H.%20AWES-K.H.W.%20BECHTOLD%20-%20The%20debt%20crisis%20of%20the%20developing%20countries%20and%20the%20IMF%20conditionality.pdf">austerity</a> was implemented to control debts and protests were met with <a href="http://countrystudies.us/somalia/28.htm">brutal repression</a>. Eventually, the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Mohamed-Siad-Barre">Siad Barre</a> government, which had been in power since October 1969, collapsed in January 1991, ushering in civil war between rival clan-based political factions. </p>
<h2>Normal rainfall patterns</h2>
<p>The seasons and <a href="http://www.fews.net/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/SO_Livelihoods_2015.png">livelihoods</a> in Somalia revolve around rainfall. </p>
<p>The main rainy season (called <em>gu</em>) is from April to June and a second rainy season (called <em>deyr</em>) is from October to November. All other months are dry. Crop prices follow a seasonal trend: they decrease in July/August as the <em>gu</em> harvest replenishes stocks, increase between September and December as market stocks are used up, and decrease again in January/February with the <em>deyr</em> harvest.</p>
<p>The rains are particularly crucial to the Somalis whose livelihoods depend on the land. In the pastoral zones, lush pasture nourishes livestock, thus increasing their value. In the agricultural zones, a good harvest lowers crop prices, replenishes household stocks and provides work.</p>
<h2>Recent drought</h2>
<p>Drought has a severe impact. In 2016, poor <em>gu</em> rains led to a low harvest. Later that year, the <em>deyr</em> rains were also poor and the harvest fell by <a href="http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia/alert/january-16-2017">70%</a>. In the northern parts of Somalia the dry season was <a href="http://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/food-security-nutrition-quarterly-brief-focus-gu-2015-season-early-warning-issued-1">hotter and drier</a> than usual, and the region had experienced drought during the previous <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/2015/11/somaliland-herders-devastated-drought-151125092138707.html">two years</a>. This destroyed the harvest and livestock. </p>
<p>In southern Somalia, 2017 began with a dry season that was <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-climate-update-january-2017-monthly-rainfall-and-ndvi-issued-february-21-2017">hotter and drier</a> than usual. The 2017 <em>gu</em> rains started late and were <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/gu-2017-rainfall-performance-march-june-2017-issued-28-june-2017">below normal</a>, which led to a low harvest. </p>
<p>The combined effects of these events were that people could not feed themselves or get work. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs <a href="https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ocha_somalia_humanitarian_bulletin_31_august_2017.pdf">estimates</a> that over 3.1 million people are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186230/original/file-20170915-8125-15j7rq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186230/original/file-20170915-8125-15j7rq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186230/original/file-20170915-8125-15j7rq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186230/original/file-20170915-8125-15j7rq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186230/original/file-20170915-8125-15j7rq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186230/original/file-20170915-8125-15j7rq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186230/original/file-20170915-8125-15j7rq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186230/original/file-20170915-8125-15j7rq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Drought and displacement map for Somalia as of May 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Humanitarian Information Unit, U.S. Department of State</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The role of al-Shabaab</h2>
<p>In southern Somalia, the militant group al-Shabaab controls <a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9f/Somalia_map_states_regions_districts.png">large areas</a> including key agricultural areas. The group relies on a variety of tactics to get new recruits and solidify its presence. For example, in one area it <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/03/somali-farmers-benefit-from-al-shabab-reforms-201431053038814400.html">builds canals</a> to make local farmers less dependent on rainfall, thus cultivating goodwill and getting recruits. </p>
<p>At the peak of the 2011/12 drought, al-Shabaab was reported to have sabotaged the relief effort by <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2011-07-28/somalia-famine-aid-blocked-al-shabaab-rebels">restricting access</a> to humanitarian agencies. This made the situation worse for people affected by the drought. <a href="http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700168592/UN-Famine-helps-militants-new-refugee-camp-opens.html">Bruno Geddo</a> of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in Somalia believes food insecurity plays into al-Shabaab’s hands:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Because of the increase in food prices, [the famine] has been a boon for al-Shabaab’s recruitment campaign because when you don’t have purchasing power to buy the food, you will be encouraged to be recruited because then you will be saved, and you can use that salary or you could be given food.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other words, al-Shabaab takes advantage of the hunger and desperation caused by drought. In this way, climate <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/612710/">worsens</a> the conflict by giving al-Shabaab more manpower. </p>
<h2>Mitigating drought and preventing famine</h2>
<p>It is <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/107/38/16477.long">wrong</a> to blame climate change for famine and conflict. These can either be prevented, or the impact minimised, if institutions and mechanisms of good governance are in place. </p>
<p>For example, the severe <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/29789048">1973–75 drought in Somalia</a> affected 700,000 people (<a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=SO&name_desc=true">20% of the population</a>) and the death toll was around <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/29789048">20,000</a> (<a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=SO&name_desc=true">less than 1%</a>). The country at the time had a strong central government and institutions that dealt effectively with the natural disaster and reduced its impact. International help was also sought quickly. Around USD$ 640 million (2017 equivalent) was spent on drought relief efforts. </p>
<p>The US Agency for International Development said in a 1975 <a href="http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/Pnadq811.pdf">case report</a> that the Somali government: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>promptly and effectively mobilised all resources at its disposal to cope with the emergency.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Somalia’s new president, Mohamed Farmaajo has already declared the current drought a <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/somalia-drought/3743540.html">national disaster</a>, and the country is in the process of formulating its first <a href="http://adesoafrica.org/what-we-do/blogs/the-formation-of-the-somali-national-disaster-management-policy-/">national disaster management policy</a>. For this policy to be effective, Somalia needs a Somali-led integrated disaster information system that identifies food insecurity and directs response. Other useful steps include harnessing local <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/2041-7136-2-1">knowledge</a> and <a href="http://abaaraha.org">technology</a> to meet the people’s needs. </p>
<p>According to a <a href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/9/e1500682.full">recent study</a>, there has been a strong link between global warming and increased dryness in the Horn of Africa over the past 2000 years. Somalis should be prepared for more hard times in future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hakim Abdi is a researcher at Lund University in southern Sweden. </span></em></p>It’s wrong to blame climate change for famine and conflict. These can either be prevented, or the impact minimised, if institutions and mechanisms of good governance are in place.Abdulhakim Abdi, Geographer and Sustainability Scientist, Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/742382017-04-11T01:51:43Z2017-04-11T01:51:43ZThree reasons for optimism in Somalia<p>In 2016, Somalia was declared <a href="http://fsi.fundforpeace.org/rankings-2016">the most fragile state in the world</a> – worse off than Syria. </p>
<p>In February 2017, the United Nations issued an early famine warning for the country, which is suffering from drought, clan warfare, government corruption and attacks from the Islamic militant group, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/27/al-shabaab-claims-to-have-killed-dozens-of-kenyan-troops-in-somalia">al-Shabab</a>. Adding to the misery, President Trump has attempted to <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-revised-travel-ban-still-faces-legal-challenges-74141">ban Somali refugees’</a> entry into the U.S. </p>
<p>Yet, as an academic who studies <a href="http://www.firstforumpress.com/uploads/55b14cb0e6953.pdf">European</a> and <a href="http://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=D6946C">African state and nation building</a>, I see three reasons for hope in Somalia.</p>
<h2>1. Building stable institutions</h2>
<p>For the first time since the 1991 overthrow of former dictator Siad Barre and the collapse of central government authority, Somalia has newly functioning political institutions. </p>
<p>In 2004, a transitional federal government tried to centralize the government but failed to hold elections. During the 2011 famine, the delivery of humanitarian aid was disrupted by recurring clan warfare. Somalis realized they needed stronger, legitimate political institutions to control and unify their national territory. </p>
<p>There are four major and many minor Somali clans, each with its own traditions and territories. <a href="http://www.fragilestates.org/2012/01/10/somalias-complex-clan-dynamics/">Clan divisions</a> have had a significant impact on Somalia’s status as a fragile state. </p>
<p>By 2012, and with help from the U.N., <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/03/07/somalias-new-president-spent-time-in-buffalo-and-now-faces-these-3-challenges/?utm_term=.95526b2af6c3">the clans agreed</a> to a power sharing formula to allocate parliamentary seats. The agreement helped the clan elders come together and led to the first formal parliament in 20 years.</p>
<p>Elections followed, but cautiously. The 2016 parliamentary elections and the 2017 presidential elections built on the formula created in 2012, but with more delegates participating to elect the parliament. To avoid violence from the clans or Al Shabab contingents, the vote for president was limited to members of the upper and lower houses of parliament, the members of which were chosen by the clans. They <a href="http://www.startribune.com/somalia-faces-presidential-election-under-threat-of-attack/413120073/">cast ballots</a> at a heavily guarded air force base in Mogadishu.</p>
<p>Citizen response to the election of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo was enthusiastic. He took office on Feb. 8, 2017, in <a href="http://www.startribune.com/somalia-faces-presidential-election-under-threat-of-attack/413120073/">a smooth transition</a> from the former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. He declared an era of unity. Farmajo’s experience of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/03/07/somalias-new-president-spent-time-in-buffalo-and-now-faces-these-3-challenges/?utm_term=.95526b2af6c3">living in the United States</a> – he holds dual citizenship and graduated from SUNY, Buffalo – and remittances from the Somali diaspora may help the economy grow and democratic values take hold. </p>
<p>The new president is representative of the almost two million Somalis who left the country, many between <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/01/5-facts-about-the-global-somali-diaspora/">1990 and 2015</a>, and the <a href="http://www.heritageinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/HIPS_Policy_Brief_007-2014_ENGLISH.pdf">significant number</a> who have <a href="http://www.startribune.com/somalia-faces-presidential-election-under-threat-of-attack/413120073/">returned</a> from abroad. Somalia is home again to many former refugees to the U.S., Canada and Europe who have dual citizenship and good educations. Many of these returnees have shown an interest in politics.</p>
<p>Indeed, <a href="https://qz.com/922449/the-fate-of-fragile-somalia-is-now-in-the-hands-of-a-remarkably-young-diverse-parliament/">one-third of the elected candidates</a> in the 2016 parliamentary election hold foreign passports. Out of the 275 members of the Somali parliament, 22 are Somali-Americans and 29 are British Somalis. The <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/hassan-ali-khaire-somalia-prime-minister-farmajo-561723">48-year-old prime minister</a>, a former senior official in the Soma Oil and Gas exploration company, is a dual Somali-Norwegian citizen. </p>
<h2>2. Better famine preparedness</h2>
<p>The existence of more stable government than before the 2011 famine <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/03/04/somalia-110-dead-hunger-past-48-hours-drought/98739642/">allowed the prime minister to act faster</a> to declare the 2017 drought a natural disaster. </p>
<p>In the 2011 famine, international aid groups in Somalia were hampered by lack of access to affected regions, clan warfare and <a href="http://www.enoughproject.org/publications/somalia-country-peril-policy-nightmare">dangerous conditions</a> caused by <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14094503">a state of anarchy</a>. Aid often went undelivered. </p>
<p>By 2012, thanks to the power sharing agreement reached by the clans, warfare had declined and <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/somalia-famine-farmaajo-al-shabaab-556679">aid delivery improved</a>. Overall funding for Somalia in 2016 amounted to <a href="https://fts.unocha.org/appeals/505/summary">US$637.7 million</a>. </p>
<p>Funding from the U.S. and the EU is an important support for the new government. The U.S. provides significant aid for political and economic recovery, as well as <a href="https://usaid.gov/crisis/somalia">humanitarian</a> and <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/al-shabaab-somalia-black-hawk-down-561586">military aid</a> to fight al-Shabab and improve state security. </p>
<p>The EU has donated over <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/tags/eu-emergency_en">1.2 billion euros</a> since 2008 through the <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/node/1079">European Development Fund</a>. </p>
<p>Aid reaches its targets better now that the country is more stable. However, there is also growing <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/fixing-failed-states-9780195398618?cc=us&lang=en&">recognition</a> that to be successful, development must be more rooted in Somalia.</p>
<h2>3. Progress against al-Shabab</h2>
<p>Protecting borders is vital for state building. Forces favorable to the Somali government <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14094503">have made advances</a> against al-Shabab militants since 2012. The retreat of al-Shabab in many regions suggests that Somalia can defend its borders better now. </p>
<p>Funding cuts under the recent EU budget <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/section/development-policy/news/african-union-s-somalia-mission-hit-by-eu-funding-cut/">will affect</a> the African Union’s Somalia mission of fighting al-Shabab. There are expectations, however, that the <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/al-shabaab-somalia-black-hawk-down-561586">U.S. will increase military spending in Somalia</a> to offset this loss. </p>
<p>Since 2007, the U.S. has played an important role in fighting al-Shabab, for example by carrying out <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/al-shabaab-somalia-black-hawk-down-561586">drone strikes</a>. In addition, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/07/world/africa/setbacks-press-shabab-fighters-to-kill-inexpensively.html?_r=0">The New York Times reports</a> that the U.S. has helped pay for an African Union stabilization force in Somalia. About <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/al-shabaab-somalia-black-hawk-down-561586">50 U.S. commandos remain</a> in Somalia, with the ability to launch air strikes and accompany Somali troops on missions. They may <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/30/world/africa/trump-is-said-to-ease-combat-rules-in-somalia-designed-to-protect-civilians.html">soon do more</a>. </p>
<h2>Hope for the Somali state</h2>
<p>Despite the challenges of famine and continuing threats from al-Shabab, a stronger Somalia seems possible. <a href="http://www.global-economic-symposium.org/knowledgebase/the-global-polity/repairing-failed-states/proposals/liberia-rebuilding-for-growth-and-development">Liberia</a> and <a href="http://www.uncdf.org/gfld/docs/post-conflict.pdf">Sierra Leone</a> are examples of countries that have successfully managed their state building and made similar turnarounds. </p>
<p>Somalians <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/fixing-failed-states-9780195398618?cc=us&lang=en&">want to rebuild</a> their state from the bottom up, depending more on domestic sources. Unfortunately, Somalia’s current recovery is fragile and could easily derail. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/17/somali-refugees-killed-helicopter-attack-off-yemen-coast">recent attack</a> on Somali refugees off the coast of Yemen highlights continuing problems. Now is not the time for a ban on Somali refugees entering either the EU or the U.S. A more stable Somali government should merit some reconsideration of this order.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74238/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eleanor Zeff is affiliated with the Iowa International Center and the Alliance Francaise</span></em></p>According to 2016 rankings, Somalia is the most fragile state in the world, worse off even than Syria. But there are reasons to believe things will improve.Eleanor Zeff, Associate Professor of Political Science, Drake UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/746412017-03-15T13:41:59Z2017-03-15T13:41:59ZAppeals for aid to fight Horn of Africa famine ignore the plight of Eritreans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160923/original/image-20170315-5324-wp64nt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A camp for people affected by malnutrition in Eritrea. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">A photo smuggled out of Eritrea by the Freedom Friday network. </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The international community has finally woken up to the critical situation across the Horn of Africa. Conflict and drought have left millions at risk of famine. In the UK, an <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39272811">appeal has been launched</a> by the Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC) for assistance for 16m people from Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan. To underline the gravity of the situation, British foreign secretary Boris Johnson <a href="http://home.bt.com/news/world-news/boris-johnson-in-somalia-for-surprise-visit-amid-drought-and-famine-warning-11364164804132">visited Somalia</a> on March 15 to observe conditions on the ground.</p>
<p>This is not just a British response. Turkey – with important links to Somalia – <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2017/03/05/turkey-launches-aid-campaign-for-drought-hit-horn-of-africa-and-yemen/">pledged</a> to provide assistance for the region earlier in March. Germany also <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/germanys-gabriel-urges-aid-to-prevent-africa-famine/a-37912625">promised</a> to help those in most need.</p>
<p>But in the rush to provide help to those facing starvation one community has been ignored: Eritreans.</p>
<p>There is no doubt about the scale of the need. A recent <a href="http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/2017_Eritrea_HAC_0.pdf">report</a> from the UN children’s agency, UNICEF, detailed the critical situation facing Eritrea’s women and children due to drought in recent years. It said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Malnutrition rates already exceeded emergency levels, with 22,700 children under five projected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition in 2017. National data also indicates half of Eritrean children are stunted.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Aid blocked</h2>
<p>It’s not that aid agencies are reluctant to led a hand – but Eritrea rejects their support. As one humanitarian monitoring system – the Assessment Capacities Project – <a href="https://www.acaps.org/country/Eritrea">explained</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Eritrean government severely restricts the access of humanitarian actors inside the country. Very little is known about humanitarian needs: UNICEF estimates that the total affected population is 1.5m.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Only a handful of UN organisations, and a few non-governmental organisations, are allowed to operate in the country. Even they find their hands tied behind their backs.</p>
<p>President Isaias Afwerki, one of Africa’s most ruthless dictators, has refused to recognise the plight of his people. This crisis has been building for years, yet in January 2016, when the first indications of the scale of the drought was becoming clear, the official media carried this <a href="https://www.tesfanews.net/no-food-crisis-in-eritrea-president-isaias/">message</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>In view of the harvest shortfall that has affected the whole Horn of Africa region, President Isaias stated that the country will not face any crisis in spite of reduced agricultural output, the information ministry said, after he was interviewed by state-run media.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The president’s denial of the critical situation that was developing was extremely unfortunate. It has made aid agencies’ cooperation with the Eritrean government complex, and it is difficult for them to provide aid to the Eritrean people.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160920/original/image-20170315-5357-py0bpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160920/original/image-20170315-5357-py0bpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160920/original/image-20170315-5357-py0bpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160920/original/image-20170315-5357-py0bpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160920/original/image-20170315-5357-py0bpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160920/original/image-20170315-5357-py0bpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160920/original/image-20170315-5357-py0bpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A photo of a young girl smuggled out of Eritrea by the network Freedom Friday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Freedom Friday.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But this should not deter the international aid community. Information has been smuggled out of the worst-affected areas by Eritreans working with the victims of the drought. They are forbidden from taking their mobile phones or cameras into the feeding centres but some have managed to do so, sending them abroad illicitly at risk to themselves and their families. The photographs, taken in recent months, show children wasted from malnutrition and outbreaks of cholera. </p>
<h2>How to get Eritreans help</h2>
<p>What is required now is a two-pronged approach. First, assistance channelled through those UN agencies – UNICEF, the UN refugee agency and the World Health Organisation – that are <a href="http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Eritrea%20CERF%20Funding%202006-2016%20%28as%20of%2031%20July%202016%29.pdf">currently operating</a> on the ground.</p>
<p>Second, diplomatic pressure on the Eritrean government to allow the aid to get through. The European Union has <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/countries/eritrea_en">already pledged</a> €200m for the country’s long-term development – although this approach been <a href="https://theconversation.com/fleeing-for-freedom-eritrean-refugees-are-being-abandoned-by-europe-73712">criticised</a> for its focus on stopping Eritrean refugees arriving in Europe. However, the channels that have been established should be used to persuade a reluctant regime to accept the hand of friendship in a time of need.</p>
<p>There is a good precedent for this. During the last great famine to hit the region in 1984-85, the Eritrean liberation movement – then fighting for independence from Ethiopia, and now governing Eritrea – accepted the assistance offered to it by charities and international donors. In 1984, $400,000 worth of food and other essentials <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=vjZhFR3vTvgC&pg=PA176&lpg=PA176&dq=aid+for+EPLF+1984+1985&source=bl&ots=OZRyZho2FE&sig=SjV4I2VyfeRZoKSlUmRDNLhy3iQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjMs6OxqtjSAhWPHsAKHWRMCL8Q6AEIMjAD#v=onepage&q=aid%20for%20EPLF%201984%201985&f=false">was provided</a> to the rebels. If the Eritreans could accept aid in the past then why not accept it now?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74641/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Plaut is affiliated with the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London</span></em></p>Eritreans are at risk of severe malnutrition – but aid agencies struggle to access those in need.Martin Plaut, Senior Research Fellow, Horn of Africa and Southern Africa, Institute of Commonwealth Studies, School of Advanced Study, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/733802017-03-01T15:00:01Z2017-03-01T15:00:01ZHow South Sudan’s warlords triggered extreme hunger in a land of plenty<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158498/original/image-20170227-26340-8bg3ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman waits to be registered at a food distribution centre run by the United Nations World Food Programme in Thonyor, Leer state, South Sudan. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Siegfried Modola</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A man-made famine? That question has been on the lips a lot in recent days after it was <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=56205#.WLA0SW997IU">declared</a> in South Sudan. The last time this happened in Africa, or anywhere, was in <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=39086#.WLA0GW997IU">Somalia</a> in 2011.</p>
<p>The classification of a famine as man-made is applied to severe hunger arising from a set of foreseeable, and therefore avoidable, circumstances. According to criteria set down by the United Nations a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-39025927">famine</a> is declared in an area when at least 20% of households are viewed as being exposed to extreme food shortages, 30% are malnourished and deaths from hunger has reached two persons a day for every 10,000. </p>
<p>Famines can result from natural or man-made causes. Natural causes include droughts, plant disease, insect plagues, floods and earthquakes. A prolonged drought is behind the recent warning of <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/rewind/2017/01/crisis-horn-africa-somalia-famine-170117081319175.html">potential famine</a> in Somalia by the World Food Programme.</p>
<p>The human causes of famine include extreme poverty, war, deliberate crop destruction and the inefficient distribution of food. South Sudan’s predicament falls square under this category. There have been no major droughts, flooding or other natural catastrophe reported. Instead a <a href="http://www.eurasiareview.com/17022016-long-and-dark-road-to-peace-the-future-of-south-sudan-analysis/">three year conflict</a> that has engulfed the country, combined with high food prices, economic disruption and low agricultural production has resulted in UN and the government of South Sudan declaring a famine in the country.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/famine-declared-part-south-sudan-unity-state-170220081516802.html">According</a> to the head of the World Food Programme, the avoidable conflict between the main political protagonists is solely to blame. Years of conflict have created a situation in which many women, children and the elderly are suffering needlessly and have no access to <a href="https://www.unicef.org/appeals/south_sudan.html">food or water</a>. </p>
<p>High food prices, economic disruption and low agricultural production have resulted in the large areas becoming <a href="http://www1.wfp.org/countries/south-sudan">“food insecure”</a>. The situation could not have come at a more difficult time. Years of conflict have crippled the economy and hammered the value of its currency. Severe inflation has seen the value of its currency plummet 800% in the past year alone. This has made food <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/south-sudan/inflation-cpi">unaffordable</a> for many families. </p>
<p>Despite the deteriorating situation the government of South Sudan has been using its limited resources to <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/southsudan-security-un-exclusive-idINKCN11E2P8">buy weapons</a>, increase the number of states, pay military wages and wage war on civilians.</p>
<h2>Conflict sows seeds of hunger</h2>
<p>Significant progress in reducing global hunger has been achieved over the past 30 years. But the impact of conflict on food production and citizens ability to feed themselves is often underestimated. This was highlighted in a <a href="http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/21483/1/sp06je04.pdf">study</a> that found that </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“civil wars and conflicts are detrimental to food security, but the negative effects are more severe for countries unable to make available for their citizens the minimum dietary energy requirement under which a country is qualified for food aid” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is true of South Sudan, which can <a href="http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp252353.pdf?iframe">feed itself</a> in peace time. Just six months ago, many parts of the country were bustling with agricultural activity, producing enough food for the local populations. </p>
<p>The medium sized town of Yei is a good example. Locals report an inability to cultivate their land since the recent escalation of fighting. A town once seen as a place where <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/01/south-sudan-coffee-time-war-160105132312753.html">coffee bean production</a> was on the rise is now a place where farmers no longer venture out. </p>
<p>It’s also <a href="https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/170124_Simmons_RecurringStorms_Web.pdf?wmBiEmhhIrScAX8ew4QTPfzLpiDn6OKL">likely</a> that Yemen, Nigeria, and Somalia, could declare a famine in the next few months. It’s no coincidence that those countries are also embroiled in widespread or localised armed conflict. </p>
<h2>Deteriorating situation</h2>
<p>More than 100,000 people in two counties of Unity state are experiencing famine. This number could rise as an additional one million South Sudanese are on the <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/famine-declared-part-south-sudans-unity-state-45605323">brink</a> of starvation. Central Equatoria state, traditionally South Sudan’s breadbasket, has been hit by ethnically targeted killings that have disrupted agricultural production.</p>
<p>Between 40%-50% of South Sudan’s population are expected to be severely food insecure and at risk of death in the <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/indonesia/the-jakarta-pos%0At/20170221/281848643367301">coming months</a>. Over 250,000 children are severely <a href="https://www.unicef.org/appeals/sudan.html">malnourished</a> according to UNICEF and these are number where UNICEF has access to. </p>
<p>Yet the government does not seem to want to address the underlying causes of the famine. In fact it’s unclear what its overall plan is. </p>
<p>It is <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-02/17/c_136064966.htm">relocating</a> by air internally displaced people through Juba into Malakal. The Dinka-controlled government’s strategy is not entirely clear. But some of my informants claim that the objective is to rid the capital of rival ethnic groups that could pose a direct threat to the seat of government in Juba. </p>
<p>Adding to this, the new Special Representative for South Sudan has raised <a href="http://www.unmultimedia.org/radio/english/2017/02/un-concerned-for-displaced-in-south-sudans-upper-nile-region/#.WLQo3xKLSRs">concerns</a> over some 20,000 internally displaced people on the West bank of the Nile in the Upper Nile region as a “real problem.” These <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=56184#.WKv00hKLSRs">fleeing</a> civilians are victims of government efforts to consolidate power centrally and push certain ethnic groups who are not aligned to the government away from the centre. </p>
<h2>Food aid restricted</h2>
<p>The UN has repeatedly warned that government forces are <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/south-sudan-famine-latest-africa-civil-war-announce-government-united-nations-un-east-a7589616.html">blocking</a> the delivery of food aid to affected areas. </p>
<p>South Sudan’s government wouldn’t be the first to have done this. In 2012 the <a href="http://viewsweek.com/world/food-as-a-weapon-of-war/">Rohingya</a> in Myanmar who were left to starve amidst sectarian violence with local Buddhist communities. In 2011 it was Sudan starving its people in the Nuba mountain region. More recently in Syria the government was allegedly targeting bakeries, hitting civilians waiting to buy food. </p>
<p>According to the Geneva Convention <a href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/publication/unts/volume%201125/volume-1125-i-17512-english.pdf">treaty</a> on non-international armed conflicts a government can legally restrict food access for a short-term period if it is militarily necessary. This is a very narrow exception. It cannot and should not be used to punish civilians for their affiliation to the conflict and it cannot be used on a biased basis. And such restrictions must not result in starvation of the civilians. </p>
<h2>Famine and political unrest</h2>
<p>The situation in South Sudan is likely to get worse. The ongoing conflict is likely to escalate as the number of smaller armed groups rises on the back of more localised <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/dec/07/south-sudan-horrific-attacks-prompt-communities-take-arms">self-militias</a> being set up. In the light of this government military action will escalate.</p>
<p>This new dimension in South Sudan’s conflict increases in the chances of further political turmoil and further narrows the window of peace for the world’s youngest nation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73380/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew E. Yaw Tchie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nearly half of South Sudan’s population could be severely food insecure and at risk of death in the coming months because of the avoidable acts of civil war in a land of plenty.Andrew E. Yaw Tchie, Conflict Advisor, Ph.D. candidate and Associate Fellow, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.