tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/south-africa-fracking-33115/articlesSouth Africa fracking – The Conversation2022-08-16T14:41:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1881122022-08-16T14:41:41Z2022-08-16T14:41:41ZSouth Africa’s proposed fracking regulations should do more to protect groundwater<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479402/original/file-20220816-9763-z7u5be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Karoo landscape, a water-scarce area near potential shale gas sites.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo courtesy Surina Esterhuyse</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa is extremely water scarce, and water supply will become more challenging in the future. The <a href="https://www.africaportal.org/publications/delicate-balance-water-scarcity-south-africa/">population and economy are growing</a>, increasing demand. Rainfall is variable and more extreme and prolonged droughts are expected because of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128183397000059">climate change</a>. More than 80% of South Africa’s available surface water resources are already <a href="https://www.dws.gov.za/Groundwater/Documents/NGS_Draft-Final_04012017.pdf">allocated for use</a>. Groundwater resources will therefore become more important in South Africa.</p>
<p>There is, however, a potential threat to those groundwater resources. South Africa depends heavily on <a href="https://cdn.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/planning-a-just-transition-in-south-africa.pdf">coal for energy</a> but its coal resources are being <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/265445/proved-coal-reserves-in-south-africa/">depleted</a>. The country may turn to unconventional oil and gas resources to augment energy supply. And methods to extract oil and gas can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479716307289">contaminate and deplete groundwater</a>. </p>
<p>Hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, is used to extract trapped oil and gas from underground geological formations. A mixture of water, chemicals and sand is injected into these formations under high pressure. This opens up micro-fractures in the rock to release the trapped oil and gas, but it can also disturb the deep geological formations and aquifers. Groundwater can be contaminated if deep saline groundwater migrates to potable groundwater resources via hydraulic connections.</p>
<p>In addition to migration of saline groundwater, the chemicals used during fracking can contaminate groundwater. Wastewater may also get into groundwater via spills and leaks. And the hydraulic fracturing process requires large volumes of water. </p>
<p>Regulations that are properly developed and enforced are therefore vital to protect groundwater resources in South Africa when <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41545-021-00145-y">extracting unconventional oil and gas</a>.</p>
<h2>Regulations to protect groundwater</h2>
<p>On 7 May 2021, the Department of Water and Sanitation published <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202105/44545gon406.pdf">regulations on the use of water in oil and gas extraction</a>. And on 11 July 2022, the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment published <a href="https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Proposed-Regulations-pertaining-to-the-Exploration-and-Production-of-Onshore-Oil-and-Gas-Requiring-Hydraulic-Fracturing.pdf">proposed regulations for the exploration and production of onshore oil and gas</a> for public comment. These regulations aim to protect the environment during oil and gas development. </p>
<p>The environment department also published a document for comment specifying what <a href="https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/NEMA-Intention-to-prescribe-minimum-conditions-for-onshore-exploration-of-oil-and-gas-intending-to-frack-8-July-2022.pdf">information must be supplied</a> when applying for a licence to produce oil and gas. The two departments’ regulations should be read together since both protect groundwater resources. </p>
<p>Based on a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41545-021-00145-y">survey</a> of South African groundwater experts that my colleagues and I conducted, I’ve reviewed the proposed regulations and identified aspects that need attention.</p>
<p>A strength of the regulations is that they list penalties for contraventions, which will help with enforcement. However, there are gaps in the regulations. Some extraction methods and related processes are not regulated. </p>
<h2>Gaps in fracking regulations</h2>
<p>The environment department’s regulations only address unconventional oil and gas development that requires hydraulic fracturing. Other techniques are also used to free those resources. For example, depressurisation can be used to liberate coalbed methane. All the extraction methods should be included in the regulations.</p>
<p>The regulations say that water sources and fracking wells at the extraction site should be at least 2km apart. This is not far enough. Based on what the survey of experts found, fracking wells should be at least 10km away from municipal wellfields, aquifers and water supply boreholes. They should be at least 5km away from seismically active springs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Karoo landscape with windpumps" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Putsonderwater, meaning ‘well without water’ in the extremely water-scarce area between Marydale and Groblershoop.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo courtesy Danita Hohne</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These minimum distances, known as setbacks, are also needed where there are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41545-021-00145-y">other geological and groundwater features</a> that increase the risk of groundwater contamination. </p>
<p>The regulations do not address specific measures to contain fractures to the production zone, or to prevent fluids from migrating beyond this area. Operators should have to monitor these risks and report to the regulator. If monitoring shows that fluid is moving outside the production zone, operations must stop until the situation is corrected. </p>
<p>The proposed regulations don’t address fracturing fluid management. The water department regulations require that a list of chemicals planned for use in the fracturing fluids be submitted to the department for approval, but this alone is insufficient to protect groundwater. A risk management plan for each well that is to be fractured must be submitted to the regulator. It must identify the chemical ingredients and the volume and concentration of the fluid additives. The plan must assess the potential environmental and health risks of the fracturing fluids and additives – and show how operations will minimise risk. </p>
<p>The regulations require a waste management plan. It should be more comprehensive, by considering both solid waste and wastewater. The plan should include transport, storage and management of wastewater and other substances used, and procedures for preventing and addressing spills. It should monitor and report on the actual volume of recovered fluids, the chemical composition of these fluids, and any radioactive fluids that were identified. </p>
<p>The information disclosure regulations are inadequate. They require that various information sources be uploaded onto the website of the holder. They do not require public access to this information. It would be better to load the data onto a centralised website run by an independent institution, where it is available and in a usable form.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-fracking-plans-could-affect-shared-water-resources-in-southern-africa-147684">How fracking plans could affect shared water resources in southern Africa</a>
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<p>The well decommissioning regulations do not specify how long decommissioned wells should be monitored. The risk of well leakage <a href="https://gisera.csiro.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Final-Report-GISERA-W20-Monitoring-of-Decommissioned-Wells.pdf">over the long term</a> means that a monitoring timeframe of <a href="https://seasgd.csir.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Ch-5_Water_13Nov2016_LR.pdf">50 years or more may be necessary</a>. The regulations should consider who will be responsible and carry the associated costs. </p>
<p>Ancillary activities are not regulated. For example, there’s no mention of pipeline management or monitoring. Pipelines could leak and contaminate groundwater resources, especially if they are buried. </p>
<p>The minimum information requirements document also needs revision. Information about where wells will be located should be publicly available. For the groundwater baseline (the groundwater quality and quantity before fracking), both shallow and deep aquifers should be assessed, and possible fluid migration pathways should be identified.</p>
<p>If these aspects are addressed and the regulations properly enforced, the regulations will do a better job of protecting groundwater resources.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Surina Esterhuyse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New regulations for protecting water resources during oil exploration are inadequate and should be reviewed.Surina Esterhuyse, Senior Lecturer Centre for Environmental Management, University of the Free StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/875412017-12-19T14:56:41Z2017-12-19T14:56:41ZFracking and earthquakes: weighing up the dangers in South Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199681/original/file-20171218-27557-emk4h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are concerns about the negative environmental and social impact of fracking in the Karoo.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/martin_heigan/5065476673/in/photolist-8HBTJH-nCvenD-p6a1s1-4zNnYT-4jVc9T-9tGSZi-6mVVSp-HyWnh-5PPC2k-xz55c-qgywH-4suAfD-HyV3k-vJxX9-oxcJcH-t3hm4-8okwYs-JrDJP-vJxX1-AAeRk-HrjeD-hoZVQW-HiAtg-icnQqN-2CRBYT-9um1fV-6n17BL-hkT6r-4P6f38-f7Yz-5Qct6t-er9WVf-4ovCPw-6n145U-57QcXD-bivixT-47i3ki-F5KFp-7xxw9S-AK3g7-gDPC7B-6VcZfd-8DYKU5-3aKjYM-gJmWLW-ynArZ-pPUWU-AQt58-4FDp4i-pUAm4">Martin Heigan/Flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The South African government is looking into <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africa-needs-to-pursue-the-potential-of-gas-from-fracking-42271">fracking</a> to reduce the country’s huge reliance on coal for energy. Fracking involves pumping high pressured fluids <a href="https://fracfocus.org/hydraulic-fracturing-how-it-works/hydraulic-fracturing-process">into rock formations</a> to release reserves of oil and gas. </p>
<p>Estimates for gas deposits in the main Karoo region of South Africa range <a href="http://www.sajs.co.za/sites/default/files/publications/pdf/SAJS-113-9-10_DeKock_ResearchArticle.pdf">widely</a>. A few studies have been done for government on the potential for shale gas in the country. These include a report on the technical readiness for a <a href="http://research.assaf.org.za/handle/20.500.11911/14">shale gas industry</a>, a strategic environmental assessment <a href="http://seasgd.csir.co.za/">on shale gas</a> and a <a href="https://juta.co.za/print/catalog/Product/2858">multi-authored academic book</a> on hydraulic fracturing in the Karoo. Government must now integrate this information into policy and develop regulations for the fracking industry.</p>
<p>Environmental groups and landowners <a href="http://www.treasurethekaroo.co.za/fracking-facts">are concerned</a> about the negative environmental and the social impact of fracking. They say that it could have an impact on water quality and quantity, and could also cause habitat fragmentation and loss. They are also worried about possible increased seismicity associated with deep well waste water injection and <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479716307289">fracking operations</a>. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.wrc.org.za/Knowledge%20Hub%20Documents/Research%20Reports/2149-1-14.pdf">Our research</a> set out to look at the link between earthquakes and fracking. It formed part of the vulnerability mapping for fracking in South Africa. We found that <a href="http://www.wrc.org.za/Knowledge%20Hub%20Documents/Research%20Reports/2149-1-14.pdf">the areas</a> with the highest vulnerability for seismicity linked to fracking were in the parts of Western Cape, Gauteng, North West Province, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and one of South Africa’s neighbours, Swaziland. Even though no gas is expected to be found in many of these areas, they would still be prone to the seismic effects of fracking in the Karoo basin, the site of <a href="https://theconversation.com/shale-gas-in-south-africa-game-changer-or-damp-squib-83459">what is assumed to be</a> the country’s biggest gas deposits.</p>
<p>Seismic hazards in South Africa are not high by international norms. But there could be significant damage to infrastructure if seismicity increases.</p>
<h2>Fracking and earthquakes</h2>
<p>During fracking a mixture of water, sand and chemicals – known as fracking fluid – is pumped under high pressure into a well to fracture rock and release hydrocarbons. These hydrocarbons are extracted at the wellhead together with wastewater that contains a mixture of fracking fluid and formation water. The wastewater can be disposed of by injecting it underground through deep wells.</p>
<p>Both extraction and underground injection of fluids have been <a href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70155938">shown to cause earthquakes</a>. But the size of these events are unclear; ranging from relatively small earthquakes such as the magnitude 2.3 in <a href="https://www.politiekemonitor.nl/9353000/1/j4nvgs5kjg27kof_j9vvioaf0kku7zz/viu9lvhwcewb/f=/blg137575.pdf">Blackpool, England</a> to the 5.7 magnitude earthquake in <a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/geology/article-lookup/41/6/699">Prague, Oklahoma in November 2011</a>.</p>
<p>There have been at least two seismic events of concern with magnitudes equal or larger than 7.0, both in <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264817213000846">Gazli in Uzbekistan</a> where gas is withdrawn. Although they could not be linked directly to fracking, they showed some features associated with fracking-induced earthquakes. </p>
<p>The connection between waste water pumping and seismicity is unquestionable. <a href="https://juta.co.za/print/catalog/Product/2858">Scientists believe</a>, that three factors are responsible for fracking induced or triggered seismic events:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the presence and orientation of tectonic faults,</p></li>
<li><p>state of stresses in the fault subsurface, and</p></li>
<li><p>the depth and relation between the faults and the fracking process as a whole.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Seismic activity in South Africa</h2>
<p>Seismic data of past events in South Africa are incomplete because the <a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/srl/article-lookup/79/2/203">South African National Seismograph Network</a> primarily monitors areas of mine-related seismicity in the country’s central and northern parts. </p>
<p>The first seismic records were started in 1620, but these contain significant <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=2BhOAQAAIAAJ&q=Seismic+history+of+Southern+Africa+fernandez&dq=Seismic+history+of+Southern+Africa+fernandez&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiqwaTYmonYAhWFcBoKHRbwDA8Q6AEITDAH">data gaps</a>. Information about active faults that can cause earthquakes is limited; that’s why information from similar tectonic areas like central and eastern US is normally used.</p>
<p>What we do know is that large seismic events – or earthquakes – are rare in South Africa. This is because the country is positioned on the interior of a tectonic plate, a relatively rigid area that’s more stable compared with other <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10518-017-0152-4">plate boundaries</a>. </p>
<p>The country has experienced several large mining-related earthquakes in the past. One occurred in Stilfontein on <a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/srl/article-lookup/79/2/203">9 March 2005</a>; another near Orkney on <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10950-015-9491-2.pdf">5 August 2014</a>. Both earthquakes, with magnitudes 5.3 and 5.5 respectively, were powerful enough to damage the surrounding infrastructure.</p>
<p>South Africa’s most devastating tectonic-origin earthquake, measuring magnitude 6.3, occurred of the Cape at St Lucia on <a href="https://www.bookdepository.com/History-Geophysics-Southern-Africa-Johan-H-de-Beer/9781920689803">31 December 1932</a>. On September 29 1969 an earthquake measuring 6.3 hit towns in the <a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/bssa/article-lookup/61/4/851">Western Cape</a>, killing 12 people and causing extensive damage.</p>
<h2>Seismic hazard in South Africa</h2>
<p>The effect of fracking on the local seismic region can be measured by analysing the seismicity before, during, and after the fracking process.</p>
<p>But there is little knowledge on geological information for the Karoo region where fracking has been proposed. Figure one shows the distribution of seismic hazard in South Africa. This means that potentially dangerous faults in the region may go undetected. It’s important to get more geological and tectonic information as well as data about the degree and depths of the proposed fracking process in the region. This could tell us what seismic effect to expect as a result of fracking.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/198974/original/file-20171213-27562-i63jvq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/198974/original/file-20171213-27562-i63jvq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/198974/original/file-20171213-27562-i63jvq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198974/original/file-20171213-27562-i63jvq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198974/original/file-20171213-27562-i63jvq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198974/original/file-20171213-27562-i63jvq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198974/original/file-20171213-27562-i63jvq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198974/original/file-20171213-27562-i63jvq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map of seismic hazard for South Africa showing the expected PGA with a 10 % probability of being exceeded at least once in a 50 year period.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Esterhuyse et al., 2014</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is extremely important to monitor local seismic activity before fracking starts to create a baseline for the specific site and surrounding areas. Seismic monitoring before exploration will aid in identifying the location of faults and the stress field nature in areas where it is currently unknown. This, linked with seismic monitoring during and after fracking, can help scientists perform reliable risk assessments to assist with proper regulation.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is the third in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa/topics/south-africa-shale-gas-33114">series</a> The Conversation Africa is running on shale gas in South Africa.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87541/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrzej Kijko receives funding from Water Research Commission and National Research Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Surina Esterhuyse received funding from the Water Research Commission for this research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ansie Smit receives funding from Water Research Commission and National Research Foundation. </span></em></p>It is extremely important to monitor local seismic activity before fracking starts to avoid causing harm.Andrzej Kijko, Director of the Natural Hazard Centre, University of PretoriaSurina Esterhuyse, Lecturer Centre for Environmental Management, University of the Free StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/872692017-11-16T18:14:27Z2017-11-16T18:14:27ZGroundwater maps could help South Africa prepare for safer fracking<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195009/original/file-20171116-15428-19j1pnn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Drilling for water in the Karoo where one major concern from fracking is that groundwater will be affected in the shale gas extraction process.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Danita Hohne </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The South African government has made a firm commitment to proceed with unconventional <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/www.gov.za/files/devplan_2.pdf">gas exploration using fracking</a>. During fracking a mixture of water, sand and chemicals is pumped under high pressure into a deep well to fracture the rock and release “tight” gas that is not easily released by the rock. Speculative estimates of the potential gas resource in the country’s Karoo basin range from <a href="http://www.sajs.co.za/system/tdf/publications/pdf/SAJS-113-9-10_DeKock_ResearchArticle.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=35846&force=">13 to 390 trillion cubic feet of gas</a>, with the lowest estimate being the most realistic. </p>
<p>The extraction of shale gas is an attractive option. It could reduce South Africa’s <a href="http://seasgd.csir.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Ch-2-Energy-Planning_13Nov2016_LR.pdf">huge reliance on coal</a> for energy. </p>
<p>But there are also uncertainties around the impact of shale gas extraction. That’s why the Academy of Science investigated South Africa’s <a href="http://research.assaf.org.za/handle/20.500.11911/14">technical readiness</a> for shale gas development. It assessed the status of available information and technologies that can support the development of the shale gas industry. The government also commissioned the strategic environmental assessment for <a href="http://seasgd.csir.co.za/">shale gas development</a>. </p>
<p>One major concern from fracking is that groundwater will be affected in the shale gas extraction process. But a groundwater vulnerability map could help assess these risks. It also has the potential to help government decide which regions can be more safely fracked to limit damage to groundwater resources.</p>
<h2>Groundwater damage</h2>
<p>Groundwater only contributes about <a href="http://www.gwd.org.za/books/groundwater-south-africa">13% of the total water supply of South Africa</a>, but it is an important strategic water source. Two thirds of South Africa’s surface area and more than 300 towns depend largely on groundwater <a href="http://www.gwd.org.za/books/groundwater-south-africa">for drinking water</a>. </p>
<p>Unconventional oil and gas extraction often has an impact on groundwater. Some of these include aquifer damage. An aquifer is an underground layer of water-bearing rock from which groundwater can be extracted using a borehole. During oil and gas extraction, an aquifer can <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12665-017-6961-6#CR14">experience dewatering</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12665-017-6961-6#CR30">deformation,</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12665-017-6961-6#CR50">contamination.</a></p>
<p>In some cases, the damage from contamination can be irreversible, such as when aquifer contamination can’t be physically cleaned or rehabilitation is too expensive. Physical cleanup may be impossible, for instance, when certain organic contaminants cannot <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12665-017-6961-6#CR36">be effectively removed</a>. In the US, hazardous waste cleanup sites present a technical and institutional challenge at more than <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12665-017-6961-6#CR36">126 000 contaminated locations</a>. Various organic compounds are also used in fracking fluids and therefore represent similar risks to groundwater resources.</p>
<p>Both research reports on shale gas extraction found that it could have an impact on South African groundwater resources. One of the reports found that there were no extra groundwater resources available and that fracking operations would impact existing ones. This report also found that shallow groundwater resources in these water scarce areas may be <a href="http://seasgd.csir.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Ch-5_Water_13Nov2016_LR.pdf">contaminated by fracking operations.</a></p>
<p>That’s where the groundwater vulnerability map comes in. It gives the location of sites where the groundwater resource is at risk due to a potentially damaging event linked to fracking, which could cause pollution or destruction of this resource.</p>
<h2>A groundwater vulnerability map</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12665-017-6961-6">groundwater vulnerability map</a> for unconventional oil and gas extraction shows the areas where groundwater is at risk from unconventional oil and gas extraction. The map is classified from very low to very high vulnerability. Areas with high vulnerability should not be used for exploration and extraction. </p>
<p>But it does not mean that areas with low vulnerability is a free for all and that oil and gas extraction can go ahead freely. The map also shows the location of geological structures where groundwater is more vulnerable to oil and gas extraction, because contamination from for instance spillages can enter the groundwater easier at these locations. Protection zones have been drawn around these vulnerable geological structures and no oil and gas development activities should occur within these zones. </p>
<p>The interactive map has already helped researchers in performing the strategic environmental assessment for shale gas development. It could also be useful assessing water use license applications, oil and gas extraction permit applications and environmental impact assessments. The map presents the relevant groundwater vulnerability information in a central location and in a comprehensible manner.</p>
<p>The interactive vulnerability map will also help regulators with risk assessment. It will ensure consistent interpretations of groundwater vulnerability by different users, if they all use one standard map. And it will enhance the transfer of scientific information to government, consultants and academia.</p>
<p>The map may also be used to guide policy development for unconventional oil and gas extraction for fracking in South Africa. It may assist with the development of effective oil and gas extraction regulations to ensure sustainable development.</p>
<h2>Lessons for South Africa</h2>
<p>Most international vulnerability maps for oil and gas extraction have been produced after fracking operations have already started. They don’t represent baseline maps which show areas that are vulnerable to fracking before the process starts. This is because when fracking was first used to extract oil and gas, information on its possible impact on natural resources, was not yet available. </p>
<p>The value of baseline vulnerability maps was therefore not yet understood. Baseline vulnerability maps could however reduce uncertainty in understanding the risks to humans and wildlife from oil and gas extraction and could be used in adaptive management. It could also present an impartial scientific base for resource management during extraction of oil and gas resources.</p>
<p>Countries that are planning to go ahead with fracking and shale gas extraction have a unique opportunity to address data needs and perform crucial baseline vulnerability mapping before extraction starts.</p>
<p>Such a map should also be linked to an active public access database, much like the <a href="http://www.fractracker.org/map/">Fracktracker database</a>. This is an interactive map that shows information on where extraction takes place by showing well sites, gas pipelines and shale gas deposit localities. And, where available, it shares information on volumes of water and chemicals used and wastewater recovered. Such a map shows information in real time and will lessen data gaps. It will enhance transparency and access to information. This would enable government to better protect natural resources during extraction and could enhance citizen stewardship.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is the second in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa/topics/south-africa-shale-gas-33114">series</a> The Conversation Africa is running on shale gas in South Africa.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87269/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Surina Esterhuyse received funding from the Water Research Commission, South Africa, for this research.</span></em></p>A vulnerability map could help assess the risks associated with fracking and groundwater which around 300 towns depend on in South Africa’s Karoo.Surina Esterhuyse, Lecturer Centre for Environmental Management, University of the Free StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/834592017-10-04T14:48:37Z2017-10-04T14:48:37ZShale gas in South Africa: game-changer or damp squib?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188559/original/file-20171003-12163-ln22ev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are indications shale gas may be present in South Africa's Karoo.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, otherwise known as fracking, has in the past few decades made available the gas in previously ‘tight’ shale geologies. This has shaken up the energy sector worldwide by contributing to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/01/oil-survey-sheikhs-versus-shale-to-keep-prices-capped-at-50-in-q3-experts-say.html">relatively low</a> oil prices. Almost all the shale gas development has taken place in the US where production has increased from about 1 to nearly 16 trillion cubic feet (tcf) <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=907&t=8">over the past 25 years</a>. </p>
<p>There are indications that shale gas may be present in a semi-desert region of South Africa known as the <a href="http://www.places.co.za/html/great_karoo.html">Karoo.</a> The core region alone has an area of 400 000 km². If a viable gas resource were to be developed in the Karoo, what impact would it have on the global shale gas market? And how would it affect the energy economy of South Africa?</p>
<p>A few preliminary studies have been done on the potential for shale gas in the country. These include a report on the technical readiness for a <a href="http://research.assaf.org.za/handle/20.500.11911/14">shale gas industry in South Africa</a>, a strategic environmental assessment on shale gas development commissioned by the Department of Environment <a href="http://seasgd.csir.co.za/">which I co-led</a>, and a <a href="https://juta.co.za/print/catalog/Product/2858">multi-author academic book</a> on hydraulic fracturing in the Karoo. </p>
<p>The research, presented <a href="https://www.assaf.org.za/index.php/news/387-the-shale-gas-industry-in-south-africa-toward-a-science-action-plan">at a recent conference</a>, has led to a clearer picture of both the potential, and the challenges facing shale gas extraction in South Africa. The purpose of the conference, organised by the Academy of Science of South Africa, was to map out a multidisciplinary research plan to fill the critical knowledge gaps.</p>
<h2>How much, how little?</h2>
<p>The studies to date suggest that it’s increasingly unlikely that economically and technically viable gas will be found in the Karoo. First desktop estimates of gas-in-place at depth in the Karoo basin were hundreds of tcf. </p>
<p>More realistic guesses – which is what they remain, in the absence of new exploration and testing – put the upper limit for gas in the Central Karoo at about 20 tcf. This is a tiny resource by global standards. In terms of energy content, 20 tcf of gas is about forty times smaller than the known remaining coal reserves in South Africa. Conventional gas reserves offshore of Mozambique have been estimated at 75 tcf. On the other hand, the continental shelf gas field off <a href="http://www.visitmosselbay.co.za/">Mossel Bay</a> located on South Africa’s garden route, exploited and now nearly depleted, was 1 tcf. </p>
<p>A viable gas find in South Africa, even if quite small, would potentially transform the national energy economy. But making a large investment in infrastructure, regulatory tools, monitoring bodies, and wellfield development for a resource which may not exist is financially, politically and environmentally risky. </p>
<p>Any decisions about how the country should proceed must therefore be based on solid research which is why efforts are under way to adopt a multidisciplinary research programme to fill in the key knowledge gaps. On top of this, good governance is a prerequisite if South Africa is to proceed to shale gas development. </p>
<h2>South Africa’s energy mix</h2>
<p>South Africa’s formal energy economy is <a href="http://www.energy.gov.za/files/coal_frame.html">dominated by coal</a>. But that cannot continue, as the country’s cheap, easily accessible coal reserves are <a href="http://www.sajs.co.za/sites/default/files/publications/pdf/369-2707-5-PB.pdf">nearing an end.</a> Coal mining has also devastated important <a href="http://www.miningweekly.com/article/cer-report-raises-concerns-about-impact-of-mining-in-mpumalanga-2016-06-17/rep_id:3650">agricultural and water-yielding landscapes</a>. Financial institutions are increasingly reluctant to fund new coal-burning power stations because of the impact carbon dioxide emissions are having on the global climate. </p>
<p>As a result, coal-burning power stations are likely, over time, to be replaced by wind and solar energy, or perhaps the more expensive nuclear option. But the degree to which the country’s energy supply can be based on intermittent sources like wind and sunshine depends on the availability of an energy source that can be easily switched on or off to fill the temporary shortfalls between supply and demand – like gas-fired turbines.</p>
<p>South Africa has already decided to increase the fraction of gas in <a href="http://www.gpwonline.co.za/Gazettes/Gazettes/40445_25-11_NationalGovernment.pdf">its energy mix</a>. The only question is where to source it from. Are international imports or domestic sources, like offshore conventional gas or onshore unconventional gas, including shale gas and coal-bed methane better?</p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>The optimal approach would be to take the first exploratory steps cooperatively, and in the public-domain, rather than in a competitive, secretive and proprietary way. This would allow South Africa to learn about the deep geology of the Karoo and the technologies and hazards of deep drilling, even if no viable gas was found.</p>
<p>A “virtual wellfield”, an imaginary but realistic computer simulation, could be developed on the basis of these findings. This would allow decision-makers and the public to better understand the economic spinoffs and environmental hazards of gas development before any significant actual development occurs. </p>
<p>The continuing low price of oil and the reduced demand for energy caused by the faltering <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-11-03-revealed-the-csirs-outlook-for-south-africas-future-electricity-mix/#.WdM49MYQ-Hs">South African economy</a> buy the country time to do the necessary research and exploration. It can establish the appropriate regulatory environment and institutions before making rushed decisions with large potential consequences.</p>
<p>This is a cautious, evidence-guided agenda which should be acceptable to most people who care both about national development and the quality of the environment.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is the first in a series The Conversation Africa is running on shale gas in South Africa.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Scholes has received funds from the South African government to co-lead the Strategic Assessment of Shale Gas Development. He is a Trustee of the WWF South Africa. </span></em></p>South Africa’s Karoo region potentially holds shale gas that could transform the energy economy of the country. But given the uncertainties around exploration what’s the next logical step?Robert (Bob) Scholes, Professor Bob Scholes is a Systems Ecologist at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/805132017-07-13T14:26:29Z2017-07-13T14:26:29ZExplainer: unpacking the issues around fracking in South Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177688/original/file-20170711-28771-ltrtnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's Karoo has shale gas and could be the location for fracking exploration.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>South Africa has been considering shale gas development in the Karoo – an arid part of the country that spans more than 400 000 square kilometres – to add to its energy mix. The possibility of “fracking” in the region has provoked heated debate. The Conversation Africa’s Ozayr Patel asked Robert Scholes and Greg Schreiner to unpack the issues.</em></p>
<p><strong>What’s happening in terms of shale gas development in South Africa?</strong></p>
<p>The Scientific Assessment for Shale Gas Development in the Central Karoo <a href="http://seasgd.csir.co.za/">was published</a> in October 2016. So far no decisions on the current exploration right applications have been made, <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/03/31/fracking-will-go-ahead-in-the-karoo">despite reports to the contrary</a>. If rights are granted, exploration activities could start within the next 3-5 years, conditional on the results of site-specific environmental impact assessments. </p>
<p>If it’s found that gas from deep shale layers can be liberated at commercially viable flow rates, the Karoo could be the location of a domestic gas industry within the next 20 years, lasting for several decades. </p>
<p>The public and the regulators have had lots of questions about the potential development of shale gas in the Karoo. The scientific assessment assembled a team of over 140 experts to evaluate these questions, clustered under 17 broad issues raised by the stakeholders. It is perhaps the most comprehensive study of its kind undertaken in South Africa. </p>
<p><strong>Is there gas under the Karoo?</strong></p>
<p>Definitely. The deep boreholes drilled in the 1970s revealed traces of gas, especially in the shales of the Whitehill Formation at the bottom of the Karoo geological sequence, several kilometres below the surface. At the time it was deemed non-recoverable because it is “tight” gas, reluctantly yielded by the rock. Technical advances, especially horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking), now make it possible <a href="https://www.propublica.org/special/hydraulic-fracturing-national">to extract tight shale gas</a>. </p>
<p>This does not mean that it’s economically viable to do so in the Karoo. Large volumes of gas have been claimed to be present based on sparse data, but the economically recoverable resource is much, much smaller. Best current estimates put it in the range 5 to 20 trillion cubic feet (tcf). By global standards, even the top end would be relatively small. For example, the proven reserves of conventional gas in the Mozambique Channel are 75 tcf. But by local standards, even the low end would be helpful; the offshore Mossgas field, now almost depleted, was <a href="http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/mossel/">less than 1 tcf.</a></p>
<p><strong>What are the benefits of shale gas development?</strong></p>
<p>Why use gas at all when there is abundant cheap solar and wind energy? Because adding quick-to-respond gas turbines into the South African energy mix increases the ability of the power generation system to use intermittent renewable energy sources in a way which slow-to-respond power sources like coal and nuclear cannot. </p>
<p>This technical policy decision has already been taken, as reflected in the country’s <a href="http://www.energy.gov.za/IRP/irp-2016.html">integrated resources plan</a>; the only question is where to source the gas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178036/original/file-20170713-32666-nh6kbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178036/original/file-20170713-32666-nh6kbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178036/original/file-20170713-32666-nh6kbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178036/original/file-20170713-32666-nh6kbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178036/original/file-20170713-32666-nh6kbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178036/original/file-20170713-32666-nh6kbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178036/original/file-20170713-32666-nh6kbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178036/original/file-20170713-32666-nh6kbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cartoon demonstrating the difference between ‘conventional’ and ‘unconventional’ gas reserves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">adapted from
http://worldinfo.org/2012/01/point-of-view-unconventional-natural-gas-drilling</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Relative to the use of imported gas, a viable Karoo shale gas find would save foreign exchange, accrue tax and employment benefits and improve national energy security. The number of jobs provided is quite small, especially for the low-skilled unemployed (a few hundred). The size of a shale gas industry in financial turnover terms is of the same order of magnitude as the existing Karoo farming and tourism industries. So it would make little sense to promote shale gas if it were to the significant detriment of existing, longer-term sectors.</p>
<p><strong>What are the main concerns?</strong></p>
<p>Fracking has been shown to increase the frequency of small earth tremors. But the Karoo is exceptionally seismically stable, and the increased risk of dangerously large earthquakes was judged by the scientific assessment <a href="http://seasgd.csir.co.za/">to be small.</a></p>
<p>The risk to water resources is the biggest concern to all those involved. Each production well needs about 15 million litres of fluid to frack. The fluid is mostly water (it doesn’t have to be fresh), sand and a small quantity of potentially harmful chemicals. After fracking, the fluid is pumped back to the surface and stored for fracking the next well. Eventually the contaminated water must be purified, the hazardous material sent to a licensed disposal facility (currently there are none in the Karoo), and the clean water returned to the environment. </p>
<p>The greatest risk is that the fracking fluid leaks into the surface water and shallow aquifers used by people, livestock and the ecosystem, due to inadequate sealing of the upper parts of the borehole, or following a spill on the surface. These risks can be reduced, but not eliminated, <a href="http://seasgd.csir.co.za/">by good engineering.</a></p>
<p>Current potable water resources in the Karoo are already fully allocated. The additional water requirements for shale gas development would either need to use water from local non-potable sources, such as deep saline groundwater, or water imported from outside the region.</p>
<p>The impact of shale gas development on the unique Karoo fauna and flora would mainly come from the accompanying habitat fragmentation and disturbance, rather than physical destruction. Each well-pad occupies just over a hectare, and the number per well-field is about 50. A small gas find may be one well-field, a big find may be five. So the area directly affected is a tiny fraction of the Karoo land area, even once the connecting roads and pipelines are considered. The exact location of the well-pads is quite flexible, which reduces the potential impact on both the rich Karoo cultural heritage resources and particular plant or animal populations.</p>
<p>The biggest and least tractable impact is likely to be social: the introduction of noise, traffic, lights, workers, work-seekers and their dependants into a formerly quiet environment, already struggling to service the resident population.</p>
<p><strong>What questions remain?</strong></p>
<p>Fracking in the Karoo has been presented as a “yes-no” decision that will be taken by government. In reality, the choices are more nuanced, far in the future, and not solely governmental. The scientific assessment asked “under what circumstances and under what regulations would it be sensible?’” It found no reason to completely eliminate shale gas as an option – if best practice is followed. The question that will determine if development proceeds is whether the resource is sufficiently attractive for the private sector to invest the billions of rand needed. Only exploration can answer that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Scholes received funding from the CSIR to lead the Scientific Assessment of Shale Gas. He is a Trustee of WWF-SA. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Schreiner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Africa has been considering shale gas development in the Karoo region. The gas, will be expensive to explore and extract, will be used as part of the country’s energy mix.Robert (Bob) Scholes, Professor Bob Scholes is a Systems Ecologist at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the WitwatersrandGreg Schreiner, Sustainability scientist, Council for Scientific and Industrial ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/673172016-11-10T15:34:38Z2016-11-10T15:34:38ZConsidering the technical readiness of South Africa to support the shale gas industry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145066/original/image-20161108-16685-5ff7il.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's Karoo region, in the south west of the country, is thought to have significant reserves of shale gas.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The discovery and exploitation of very large shale gas reserves in countries like the United States have transformed <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ente.201402177/abstract">the energy market</a>. South Africa may also possess potentially large resources of shale gas. This could have a significant positive impact on the country’s energy balance should it be decided to exploit these resources.</p>
<p>The exploitation of these key energy resources might also have a significant social, economic or environmental impact while also presenting considerable technical challenges.</p>
<p>Given the recent challenges the country is facing in terms of <a href="http://www.gov.za/issues/energy-challenge">energy supply</a>, the possibility of exploiting shale gas deposits for power generation is of current significance. Shale gas also presents other downstream opportunities. Some include providing a key resource for the production of liquid fuels and chemicals, or enabling the development of a domestic market for gas as a cleaner <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/middle-east-and-africa/south-africas-bold-priorities-for-inclusive-growth">energy resource</a>.</p>
<h2>Uncertainties</h2>
<p>South Africa’s Karoo region, in the south west of the country, is thought to have significant reserves of shale gas. Recently there has been considerable interest from the government and various companies like Shell, Falcon and Bundu to develop a shale gas industry there. <a href="http://research.assaf.org.za/handle/20.500.11911/14">Considerable uncertainties</a> exist regarding the extent of these reserves and the geology at depths where they are typically found. These and other uncertainties and constraints include the following.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The quantum of shale gas in the Karoo is still unclear: estimates range between <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=11611">20 and 400 trillion cubic feet</a>. None of these reserves has yet been proven.</p></li>
<li><p>There are also constraints relating to geographical regions. For example, no fracking may take place in the vicinity of the <a href="https://www.ska.ac.za/">Square Kilometre Array station project</a>. The project consists of the largest network of radio telescopes ever built.</p></li>
<li><p>Ensuring that no hydraulic fracturing takes place at depths less than 1500m to protect groundwater resources will also reduce the geographical area of interest.</p></li>
<li><p>Shale gas exploitation requires the use of relatively large quantities of water. Given that potable groundwater should preferably not be used for any such exploitation, greater clarity is needed on the availability of deep-level saline water. This is considered to be acceptable for use in hydraulic fracturing.</p></li>
<li><p>Baseline studies need to be carried out to ascertain with greater certainty the environment at depths greater than 3 km underground. Such baseline studies should also ensure that there is a clear understanding of the status of the human and natural environments before any fracking commences.</p></li>
<li><p>South Africa has a serious shortage of the high-level skills that would be required to implement such an industry. Strategies need to be set in place to develop skills to ensure sustainable development of the shale gas industry.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://research.assaf.org.za/handle/20.500.11911/14">International experience</a> has highlighted the critical need to have all the necessary legislative and regulatory structures in place. But also, a sufficient number of regulators with the required skills before a shale gas industry is launched.</p></li>
<li><p>The implementation of a shale gas industry in an area like the Karoo may have a significant socio-economic impact on the local population. Similar concerns have been expressed in studies especially from <a href="http://www.scienceadvice.ca/uploads/eng/assessments%20and%20publications%20and%20news%20releases/shale%20gas/shalegas_fullreporten.pdf">Canada</a> and <a href="http://www.acola.org.au/index.php/projects/securing-australia-s-future/project-6">Australia</a>. So it is important to ensure that there is a full understanding of the potential impact. Plans must be developed to manage them.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Resolution of these uncertainties requires extensive and ongoing consultation with all relevant parties. As such government has an important role to play as an honest broker of key information.</p>
<h2>Risk and challenges</h2>
<p>These uncertainties point to specific risks and challenges associated with the establishment of a shale gas industry in South Africa. This will require government to create an enabling environment to encourage investment in the industry while also ensuring that the state and local communities benefit. It is also critical that there is clarity regarding the pricing structures that may prevail. This is crucial when the industry begins to exploit the shale gas reserves, and obviously requires a clearer understanding of the potential quantum of the known reserves.</p>
<p>Establishing a shale gas industry presents complex technical and economic challenges, and implementation will require a whole-of-government <a href="http://research.assaf.org.za/handle/20.500.11911/14">approach</a>.</p>
<p>A structure at government level to facilitate and coordinate all the activities relating to the industry is recommended. This could coordinate the awarding of licences by various government departments and would have oversight of the activities of the regulators.</p>
<p>Awarding a production licence should proceed after satisfactory completion of terms associated with an exploration licence. This would require operators to demonstrate compliance of processes with legislation.</p>
<p>It is evident that before a shale gas industry in South Africa is implemented, important baseline studies need to be done. This will determine both the exact status quo prior to the commencement of a shale gas industry and the technical, social and economic consequences of such a development.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67317/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cyril O'Connor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Shale gas holds considerable advantages. But there are still a number of uncertainties around whether South Africa is ready for such a bold step.Cyril O'Connor, Emeritus Professor Department of Chemical Engineering Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.