tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/transition-33205/articlesTransition – The Conversation2023-07-26T14:54:12Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102102023-07-26T14:54:12Z2023-07-26T14:54:12ZMali crisis: UN peacekeepers are leaving after 10 years – what’s needed for a smooth transition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539038/original/file-20230724-19-ph4kyq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malians march against the UN peacekeeping force in Bamako in September 2022.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ousmane Makaveli/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UN Security Council voted on 30 June 2023 to <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/06/1138257">end its peacekeeping mission in Mali</a>, <a href="https://minusma.unmissions.org/en">Minusma</a>, after Mali officially requested its complete withdrawal. Over <a href="https://minusma.unmissions.org/en/personnel">11,000 military personnel from 53 countries</a> are expected to leave the country by 31 December 2023. </p>
<p>Minusma was first deployed in Mali in <a href="https://minusma.unmissions.org/en/history">April 2013</a> to support the country’s political process and help <a href="https://betterworldcampaign.org/mission/mali-minusma#:%7E:text=The%20United%20Nations%20Multidimensional%20Integrated,fragile%20transition%20to%20constitutional%20order.">restore peace and stability</a>. <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Mali/2012-coup-and-warfare-in-the-north">In mid-2012</a>, the north of the country was under the <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/13466?lang=en">control of terrorist groups</a>.</p>
<p>Mali’s recent request for the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60419799">withdrawal of UN peacekeeping troops</a> comes as no surprise. </p>
<p>After a coup in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53830348">2020</a> and another in <a href="https://theconversation.com/inside-malis-coup-within-a-coup-161621">2021</a>, the relationship between Malian authorities and Minusma deteriorated. The UN published <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/05/malian-troops-foreign-military-personnel-killed-over-500-people-during">a report</a> accusing Malian troops and their allies of massacring at least 500 civilians in 2022. It also accused the Malian government of <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/mali/minusma-crossroads">interfering with operations</a>. </p>
<p>These events prompted some countries to begin withdrawing their soldiers from the peacekeeping mission. In <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/mali/minusma-crossroads">November 2022</a>, Côte d'Ivoire informed the UN that its 900 soldiers would leave the mission. Three days later, the UK said it would also withdraw its troops. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/un-troops-to-withdraw-from-mali-what-will-change-in-terms-of-security-209765">UN troops to withdraw from Mali: what will change in terms of security</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>I’m a political scientist with a <a href="https://scholar.google.ca/citations?hl=en&user=9T47R7AAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">research focus</a> on security issues in the Sahel, which includes Mali. In my view, for Mali to make a peaceful transition to democracy, two key elements are needed.</p>
<p>First, <a href="https://africacenter.org/spotlight/fatalities-from-militant-islamist-violence-in-africa-surge-by-nearly-50-percent/">new terrorist threats</a> in <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Sahel">the Sahel</a> require the development of new instruments and approaches to warfare, including a joint fight against Islamist terrorist insurgents. No single country in the region has <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350213273_Gestion_des_menaces_terroristes_au_Sahel_et_en_Afrique_de_l'Ouest">the necessary strength</a> to lead the fight against terrorism alone. Mali must coordinate military efforts with its neighbours: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal. </p>
<p>Second, Mali must accompany the military aspect of the fight against terrorism with development initiatives to prevent radicalisation. Without these measures, the country and its citizens could face increased instability.</p>
<h2>What’s needed</h2>
<p>On 3 July 2023, Malian authorities and a Minusma delegation agreed on a <a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/minusma-presents-its-withdrawal-plan-to-malian-foreign-minister">withdrawal plan</a>. This will transfer tasks, logistics, security and strategic communication to Bamako by December.</p>
<p>Mali has had measures in place for the withdrawal of UN troops since a new government took over after the 2020 coup. The National Transitional Council approved the creation of a war school in September 2021 to <a href="https://www.maliweb.net/armee/le-mali-cree-son-ecole-de-guerre-2945251.html">strengthen the national security apparatus and train future army cadres</a>. </p>
<p>The intention was to replace foreign troops with local ones in the event of a withdrawal. The <a href="http://news.abamako.com/h/277568.html">first cohort</a> has already completed its training. The second class is nearing graduation. </p>
<p>While the UN’s withdrawal will create a security vacuum, <a href="https://www.lareussitemali.com/mali-la-2eme-promotion-de-lecole-de-guerre-fait-sa-rentree-solennelle/">increasing Mali’s vulnerability to security and terrorism-related challenges</a>, graduates of the war school could help fill this void. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/france-has-started-withdrawing-its-troops-from-mali-what-is-it-leaving-behind-170375">France has started withdrawing its troops from Mali: what is it leaving behind?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But for this to work, Malian authorities must ensure local soldiers are capable of occupying areas previously under the control of peacekeepers. Additionally, the government will need to provide employment opportunities for the more than 800 civilians working with Minusma, and create new economic activities to fill the gaps left by its departure. This will minimise any additional negative impact on Mali’s <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/employment-intensive-investment/countries/WCMS_327090/lang--en/index.htm">already fragile unemployment rate</a>. Bamako has said <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/3/what-next-for-mali-after-minusma-withdrawal">it’s capable of securing its 23 million citizens</a>, but has yet to detail how it plans to do so. </p>
<p>The government also needs to implement the recommendations of a national conference on <a href="https://modelemali.com/2021/12/30/conclusions-des-assises-nationales-de-la-refondation-de-letat-niveau-national-decembre-2021/">the refoundation of the state</a>. This includes organising credible, fair and transparent elections. A transition agreement adopted by <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2022/02/21/mali-parliament-approves-new-charter-allowing-a-five-year-democratic-transition//">parliament in 2022</a> gave the transitional government two years to hand power back to civilians. </p>
<p>However, progress on this has already been put to question. Interim president Assimi Goïta recently <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66282417">adopted a new constitution</a> that enhances his powers.</p>
<p>The major concern now is whether the military government will honour the transition period and organise elections that would restore power to a democratically elected president by 2024. Delivering this requires <a href="https://www.studiotamani.org/29484-mali-la-cedeao-favorable-a-une-transition-supplementaire-de-12-mois">government measures</a> that restore security throughout the country, foster <a href="https://www.liberation.fr/planete/2020/01/02/mali-peuls-et-dogons-des-freres-devenus-ennemis_1771562/">national reconciliation</a> and promote good governance. </p>
<h2>Why this matters</h2>
<p>The withdrawal of UN troops from Mali could have negative consequences on the country’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/un-troops-to-withdraw-from-mali-what-will-change-in-terms-of-security-209765">security situation</a> and economic growth. It could also complicate <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2022/09/03/mali-ex-rebels-and-the-government-return-to-talks-after-almost-a-year//">dialogue and negotiation efforts with ex-rebels</a>. </p>
<p>A loss of support and commitment from the international community could lead to a reduction in <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/mali/minusma-liquidation-process-unpacked">financial aid and political support</a> in the fight against insecurity. This would have a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/3/what-next-for-mali-after-minusma-withdrawal">direct impact</a> on the country’s – and Sahel region’s – stability.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-makes-peace-talks-successful-the-4-factors-that-matter-206299">What makes peace talks successful? The 4 factors that matter</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The path of constructive dialogue remains an essential condition for a peaceful political transition and the construction of “<a href="http://www.maliweb.net/societe/politique-espoir-mali-koura-salue-le-discours-2993460.html">Mali Koura</a>”, or a new Mali. </p>
<p>Mali needs to reconstruct its society. Its people are <a href="https://www.studiotamani.org/43945-democratie-au-mali-les-aspirations-profondes-du-peuple-n-ont-pas-ete-comblees">thirsty for true democracy and development</a>. The transitional authorities should ensure an end to bad governance, political mismanagement, corruption and nepotism.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mady Ibrahim Kanté does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Constructive dialogue is an essential condition for a peaceful political transition in Mali.Mady Ibrahim Kanté, Lecturer, Université des sciences juridiques et politiques de BamakoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2043912023-04-25T13:10:57Z2023-04-25T13:10:57ZOmar al-Bashir brutalised Sudan – how his 30-year legacy is playing out today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522631/original/file-20230424-1289-n7envf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sudanese in Khartoum protest the 2021 military coup that blocked a transition to civilian rule.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since independence in 1956 the Sudanese have lived through <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/26044/sudan-coup-timeline/">35 coups, attempted coups and coup plots</a> – more than any other African country. When the 2019 uprising against long-time dictator <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-16010445">Omar al-Bashir</a> created a military-civilian transitional government, the Sudanese hoped that their country would <a href="https://theconversation.com/sudan-can-avoid-past-mistakes-by-drawing-lessons-from-its-history-115470">transition to democratic rule</a>. </p>
<p>But their hopes were dashed in October 2021 when Abdel Fattah al-Burhan <a href="https://theconversation.com/sudan-coup-years-of-instability-have-made-the-army-key-power-brokers-170676">led a coup</a> against his civilian counterparts in the transitional government. </p>
<p>In the latest round of conflict that began on <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/4/15/sudan-unrest-live-news-explosions-shooting-rock-khartoum">15 April 2023</a>, civil war looms as the security actors who benefited from Bashir’s downfall battle for supremacy.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://www.ncl.ac.uk/hca/people/profile/willowberridge.html">studied Sudanese politics</a> for 15 years, and this latest round of conflict is the worst in the country’s recent history. And the legacy of Bashir’s rule is central to this calamity.</p>
<p>Bashir <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2021.1882385">bent government institutions</a> to serve his regime. He chose conflict over compromise in dealing with politically marginalised groups in <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/26/20-years-since-war-began-in-sudans-darfur-suffering-continues">Darfur</a>, in Sudan’s west, and in the south. He <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/sudan-bashir-fall/">used force</a> to hold on to power. This fuelled <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/africa/Bashir-repression-in-Sudan/4552902-5158960-eifsgw/index.html">his support</a> of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which was used to check regional rebels and the army. </p>
<p>Bashir’s legacy has continued to play out today. His former allies have mobilised to block the transition to civilian rule. This had been promised to the Sudanese people under a <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/sudan/return-civilian-rule-sudan#:%7E:text=The%20Sudanese%20military%20and%20a,in%20an%20October%202021%20coup.">framework agreement</a> signed in December 2022 by the military and a coalition of civilian actors.</p>
<p>In my view, Burhan’s fear of civilian attempts to rein in military privileges led him to preserve key elements of the Bashir system. This is playing a divisive role in the current conflict.</p>
<h2>The ideology of Islamism</h2>
<p>Part of Bashir’s legacy has to do with Islamist politics. It’s this legacy that Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/sudan-conflict-hemedti-the-warlord-who-built-a-paramilitary-force-more-powerful-than-the-state-203949">Hemedti</a> and who heads the paramilitary force, sought to exploit to his favour when he labelled Burhan a “<a href="https://twitter.com/GeneralDagllo/status/1647887773011959809">radical Islamist</a>”. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1647887773011959809"}"></div></p>
<p>This characterisation was designed to <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/sudan-turmoil-why-hemeti-taking-aim-radical-islamists">appeal to Western powers</a>. But it’s inaccurate. To understand why, one has to understand the ideological trajectory of the Bashir regime.</p>
<p>When Bashir staged the coup in 1989, he was acting as a representative of a cell in a military carefully cultivated by the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Islamic-National-Front">National Islamic Front</a>. The political party co-ordinated the coup with Bashir. </p>
<p>The National Islamic Front was led by <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hasan-al-Turabi-Islamist-Politics-Democracy/dp/1107180996">Hasan al-Turabi</a>, who had run Sudan’s Islamic Movement since the 1960s. He had grown frustrated at his failure to introduce his version of Muslim law (Sharia), through parliamentary means. </p>
<p>Soon after the coup, Bashir and Turabi initiated a process of <em>tamkeen</em> (empowerment). This policy, the legacy of which still remains, enabled them to give <a href="https://www.cmi.no/publications/7062-sudans-popular-uprising-and-the-demise-of-islamism">adherents of Islamism</a> and security bosses willing to ally with them control over almost every part of public life in Sudan.</p>
<p>Formally, Bashir installed an independent, technocratic government. In practice, however, power lay with a military-Islamist coalition that ran the country behind the scenes. </p>
<p>Throughout the 1990s, Bashir set about ruthlessly purging Sudan’s independent civil society organisations and political parties. By the end of the decade, he’d fallen out with Turabi. </p>
<p>He ejected Turabi from the government in 1999 and co-opted selected representatives of the opposition into his regime in the decades that followed. Bashir maintained the military-Islamist coalition as the basis of his National Congress Party. This kept the edifice built through tamkeen in place.</p>
<h2>Making amends</h2>
<p>In the 1990s, the Sudanese government hosted <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hasan-al-Turabi-Islamist-Politics-Democracy/dp/1107180996">radical Islamists</a> who sought to export revolution abroad and topple neighbouring regimes deemed to be Western proxies. However, after the split with Turabi in 1999, the Bashir regime attempted to <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-is-sudans-genocidal-regime-a-cia-favorite">repair its international image</a> by distancing itself from such militant groups. It also began to cooperate with Western intelligence agencies. </p>
<p>In the later Bashir period, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-sudan-idUSKCN0SC0E120151018">Sudanese government supported</a> the Saudi-Emirati coalition against the militant Islamist Houthis in Yemen. <a href="https://www.sudanakhbar.com/488615">Burhan oversaw this deployment</a>. </p>
<p>When he emerged as the <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20190413-veteran-soldier-burhan-becomes-sudans-new-ruler">transitional military leader</a> in 2019, Burhan benefited from the perception that he was a professional soldier more than an Islamist. </p>
<p>His principal interests are aligned with the military’s core interests: maintaining its privileged social and political status, as well as its numerous business enterprises. Burhan made the <a href="https://3ayin.com/en/ncp-returns/">political calculation</a> in 2021 that National Congress Party-era security bosses and bureaucrats were his best allies in the battle to both prevent civilians challenging the military’s grip on the economy, and Hemedti’s Rapid Support Forces emerging as an alternative power centre. After taking over power, he co-opted these former security bosses into government.</p>
<p>The Islamism of the Bashir-era stooges Burhan has been returning to government is <a href="https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/sudans-unfinished-democracy/">defined by</a> three elements. These are socially conservative authoritarian politics, including the <a href="https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/outrage-in-sudan-as-new-force-reminiscent-of-public-order-police-is-installed">return of morality policing</a>; a hostility to the Sudanese left; and corruption.</p>
<p>While these leaders are mostly not the “radical Islamists” the West fears, for many Sudanese, their ongoing commitment to a narrowly defined Arab-Islamic identity is divisive.</p>
<h2>A difficult dismantling</h2>
<p>After he seized power in 1989, Bashir insisted that his coup was a conventional military movement designed to return order to public life. Bashir, who has been in jail since April 2019, still <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/sudans-bashir-admits-role-1989-coup-during-trial-2022-12-20/">maintains</a> that line. The military that overthrew him has been reading the same script.</p>
<p>Four months after <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/sudan-bashir-fall/">the military</a> had <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/4/20/sudans-military-removes-al-bashir-all-the-latest-updates#:%7E:text=Sudan's%20President%20Omar%20al,a%20maximum%20of%20two%20years.">removed Bashir</a>, it signed a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/8/4/what-does-sudans-constitutional-declaration-say">constitutional declaration</a> with the main civilian coalition, the Forces of Freedom and Change.</p>
<p>This led to the formation of a joint military-civilian transitional government. The government established an Empowerment Removal Committee to <a href="https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/sudan-s-anti-corruption-team-continues-purging-remnants-of-old-regime">dismantle the network</a> of parastatal charities, media enterprises and banks that had enabled Bashir and his allies to maintain their grip on Sudan. </p>
<p>But Burhan’s October 2021 coup disrupted this. The committee was pushed aside and most of its prominent members <a href="https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/lawyers-question-legal-grounds-of-erc-arrests">arrested</a>.</p>
<p>But even before this coup, dismantling Bashir’s regime was an enormous challenge. </p>
<p>The media is a case in point. In the Bashir period, the media was controlled by nominally independent proprietors. In practice, they were National Congress Party cronies, thriving off the party’s domination of the Sudanese economy. </p>
<p>The notorious al-Intibaha newspaper, for instance, is known for its hostile rhetoric towards the South Sudanese. It continued to act as a platform for Bashir’s warmongering uncle, al-Tayyib Mustafa, even after Mustafa was <a href="https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/2315281/bashir%E2%80%99s-uncle-arrested-over-threat-violence-topple-transitional-govt">arrested</a> for posing a threat to the transitional government.</p>
<p>After <a href="https://www.sudaress.com/kushnews/286365">Mustafa’s death in 2021</a>, the paper retained his style. A <a href="https://alintibaha.net/online/162998/">piece</a> published shortly before the April 2023 outbreak of conflict characterised the civilians in the 2019-2021 transitional government as dual nationals serving foreign interests. It attacked efforts to curtail the security services’ powers.</p>
<p>Bashir may have fallen in 2019, but his military successors have preserved much of his regime’s infrastructure. The remnants of this continue to undermine democratic transition in Sudan, with ultimately disastrous consequences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204391/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>My research on Islamist politics in Sudan (for my book on Hasan al-Turabi) was funded by a British academy small grant. I have also recently been a fellow at the World Peace Foundation (2020-2022).</span></em></p>Omar al-Bashir fell in 2019, but his military successors have preserved much of the authoritarian infrastructure of his regime.Willow Berridge, Lecturer in History, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1748492022-01-24T16:03:15Z2022-01-24T16:03:15ZFear of COVID-19 and fear of change are dangerously intertwined for 2022<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440792/original/file-20220113-1519-1exdww2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C0%2C6669%2C4476&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">At the end of 2021 there was a correlation between worldwide Google searches for the term "fear of change" and "fear of COVID."</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Omicron has renewed <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/covid-anxiety-worry-omicron/">people’s fear of COVID-19</a>, while at the same time starkly surfacing our other embedded fear — <a href="https://www.inc.com/scott-mautz/science-says-this-is-why-you-fear-change-and-what-to-do-about-it.html">fear of change</a>. </p>
<p>In looking at Google Trends, my research shows that at the end of 2021 people googled “fear of COVID” and “fear of change” at rivalling rates. This result projects an increasingly widespread Omicron-driven fear accompanied by an increasing and intertwined fear of change.</p>
<p>As they inextricably entwine, fear of change and fear of COVID-19 are foreshadowing a year of intense “<a href="https://www.anxietycanada.com/articles/fight-flight-freeze/">fight, flight and freeze</a>.”</p>
<p>As a change management scholar, over the years a few simple clichés have sustained themselves. Generally, we hate change because it shakes up the status quo, predictability and our naive sense of control. Clinical psychologist <a href="https://www.verywellmind.com/i-fear-change-how-to-cope-with-the-unknown-5189851">Carla Maria Manly says</a>, “Our brains are hardwired to prefer routine and consistency.”</p>
<p>The pandemic has shaken up many of our routines, feelings or normalcy and ability to maintain consistency. So as people continue Googling “fear of COVID” and “fear of change” at rivalling rates, we need to think about their impacts and how we can get out of this fear cycle. </p>
<h2>Trying to control change</h2>
<p>For a long time, we have been told to embrace linear, mechanistic thinking that teaches what happened before will likely happen again, and so old solutions work best for new problems. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, COVID-19 has turned that thinking on its head. We fear COVID-19 because of its befuddling failure to be controlled, the way its changed our lives and the risk of illness and death.</p>
<p>An article published in <em>Frontiers in Psychiatry</em>, “<a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2021.708430">Fear of COVID-19 Infection Across Different Cohorts: A Scoping Review</a>,” put it succinctly by stating studies identified “various domains of fear related to the fear of COVID-19 infection.” These included, “fear of oneself or their family members getting infected, fear of having economic losses and being unemployed, or fear of avoidance behaviours toward gaining knowledge about the pandemic,” as well as “fear of making decisions [about actions like] whether to visit parents or not, whether to look for information on death rates or not, etc.”</p>
<p>But perhaps it shouldn’t be so scary. If we think of COVID-19, <a href="https://adaa.org/learn-from-us/from-the-experts/blog-posts/consumer/flatten-fear-facts-what-appropriate-level-covid">we can flatten the fear with facts</a>, and when it comes to change, consider how its been around for billions of years. </p>
<p>Instead of trying to control change, we should take solace from organizational consultant William Bridges who looks at events in our lives more <a href="https://wmbridges.com/about/what-is-transition/">as psychological “transitions” than change</a>, where we let go of how things were (endings), and enter a “neutral zone” of “creating new processes and learning” often feeling confusion and distress. </p>
<p>According to Bridges, beginnings involve new understandings, values and attitudes. He’s offering a process for accepting that yesterday’s solutions, cultures, structures and systems are no longer applicable — a means of letting go.</p>
<p>The big question is whether we can let go of yesterday, experience deep reflection and start a new beginning. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An illustration of a woman look up into a bunch of different versions of herself." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440785/original/file-20220113-17-j2ztht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440785/original/file-20220113-17-j2ztht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440785/original/file-20220113-17-j2ztht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440785/original/file-20220113-17-j2ztht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440785/original/file-20220113-17-j2ztht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440785/original/file-20220113-17-j2ztht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440785/original/file-20220113-17-j2ztht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Instead of trying to control change we should see it as a transition.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2022 and the fear ahead</h2>
<p>Fear is an excellent accelerator for those with specific agendas, for those with divisive intentions and for those fiercely protecting their own definition of status quo. </p>
<p>In my doctoral work on public protests, I found an ocean of reviewed literature on <a href="https://fbaum.unc.edu/teaching/articles/AnnRevSoc-2000-Benford.pdf">how a state of fear can trigger anger</a>, outrage, a demand for action, a disintegration of trust and even civility. </p>
<p>Today, we are very afraid. </p>
<p>A public opinion poll by Ipsos in December 2021 showed that in over 28 countries surveyed, <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en/what-worries-world-december-2021">32 per cent of respondents agreed that COVID was</a> the “world’s number-one worry.” </p>
<p>In a study of American Twitter data published in September 2021, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2196/30854">researchers found that</a> the public trusts the vaccine but are also experiencing a mixture of fear, sadness and anger. </p>
<p>Google Trends provides real-time data for comparing the search terms “fear of change” versus “fear of COVID.” For example, on Jan. 12, 2022, at 2 p.m. PST, the average for all countries was equally 53 per cent for searches about fear of COVID-19 and fear of change. </p>
<h2>What’s in store?</h2>
<p>Forecasting is inherently tricky and as meteorologist Edward Lorenz said, change can be subject to <a href="https://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/200301/history.cfm">sensitive dependence on initial conditions</a>, meaning even a very small thing can set off a ripple effect of immense consequence.</p>
<p>In a nutshell, Lorenz cautions when it comes to thinking people can nail down a perfectly predictable future based on only what they know and ignoring what they don’t and often can’t know. Short term projections can be OK, longer term not so much. And if people don’t have certainty, they get very uncomfortable and fearful.</p>
<p>As science writer David Robson wrote in the <em>BBC</em>, “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-covid-19-how-fear-of-coronavirus-is-changing-our-psychology">the fear of coronavirus is changing our psychology</a>.” He said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Due to some deeply evolved responses to disease, fears of contagion lead us to become more conformist and tribalistic, and less accepting of eccentricity. Our moral judgements become harsher and our social attitudes more conservative when considering issues such as immigration or sexual freedom and equality. Daily reminders of disease may even sway our political affiliations.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other words, thanks to COVID-19, our fear of all manner of change becomes both magnified and deeply intractable.</p>
<p>So, what to do in the twisted fate of 2022? In my book <em><a href="https://books.google.ca/books/about/Corporate_Personality_Disorder.html?id=IlhJGQAACAAJ&redir_esc=y">Corporate Personality Disorder: Surviving and Saving Sick Organizations</a></em> I argued that fear can be explained as an amalgam of powerlessness and the unknown — <a href="https://theconversation.com/feeling-powerless-in-the-covid-19-pandemic-4-principles-of-self-determination-can-help-you-take-back-some-control-174368">COVID-19 has led many of us to feel powerless</a>.</p>
<p>Overcoming this fear, whether it be fear of change or fear of COVID-19 requires personal empowerment and knowledge. But the trick is defining whose power and what knowledge.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174849/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eli Sopow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Overcoming this fear requires personal empowerment and knowledge. But the trick is defining whose power and what knowledge.Eli Sopow, Professor of Change Management and Organizational Behavior, University Canada WestLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1619622021-06-21T12:24:07Z2021-06-21T12:24:07ZWhat’s behind the rising profile of transgender kids? 3 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405457/original/file-20210609-15050-r4um3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4606%2C3063&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As more trans teens have come out, they've attracted more attention from the media and politicians.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/silhouette-of-businessman-and-his-shadow-of-royalty-free-illustration/1202828075?adppopup=true">iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Why are trans youth more visible these days? Is it due to more widespread acceptance, or more media coverage? Just how many trans kids are there?</p>
<p>There seem to be few clear-cut answers. But after talking with a number of scholars who study transgender youth – and editing articles written by them – I learned that the history of trans kids and some ongoing research can shed some light on how the U.S. got to this moment. </p>
<p>Here are some of the key points from their articles.</p>
<h2>1. A history of trans youth</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.psychiatry.org/patients-families/gender-dysphoria/what-is-gender-dysphoria">Gender dysphoria</a> – which refers to distress that happens when there’s a mismatch between the sex you were assigned at birth and your psychological sense of your gender – is very real. The history of trans youth offers some of the most compelling proof that trans kids aren’t some sort of new phenomenon. </p>
<p>Jules Gill Peterson, author of the book “<a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/histories-of-the-transgender-child">Histories of the Transgender Child</a>,” writes about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/trans-kids-in-the-us-were-seeking-treatment-decades-before-todays-political-battles-over-access-to-health-care-157481">teens and young adults</a> who, in the first half of the 20th century, ventured to Johns Hopkins Hospital, which was then the only medical facility in the country for people questioning their sex and gender.</p>
<p>In the papers of doctors and specialists, Peterson found stories of patients who, even though they lived in a world largely devoid of trans role models, nonetheless felt dysphoria deep in their bones. One trans boy dropped out of school because he was so embarrassed about being forced to wear girls’ clothes. Then there was the trans girl who desperately wanted to pursue a career as a dancer, but whose parents refused to let her live openly as a girl and chase her dreams.</p>
<p>All faced down the judgment of their parents, peers and doctors in the hopes of creating “a presence where there was an absence” – how trans actress Hari Nef in 2016 <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/09/26/hari-nef-model-citizen">described the impulse to transition</a>.</p>
<h2>2. The early internet’s key role</h2>
<p>For most of the 20th century, patients weren’t encouraged to embrace a different gender. Instead, doctors tended to view patients experiencing gender dysphoria as canvases for conversion therapy or experimental treatments. </p>
<p>In the 1970s, UCLA received government funding for its “<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-classes-of-trans-kids-are-emerging-those-who-have-access-to-puberty-blockers-and-those-who-dont-157750">feminine boy project</a>,” in which effeminate boys were brought in and their parents were instructed to withhold affection and mete out corporal punishment whenever their kids didn’t act in traditionally masculine ways.</p>
<p>Suffice it to say, these “treatments” <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2011/US/06/07/sissy.boy.experiment/">could be traumatizing</a>. Meanwhile, many teens with gender dysphoria continued to either suffer silently in the closet, or face immense backlash for coming out.</p>
<p>A decade later, in the internet’s infancy, trans youth jumped at the opportunity to connect with one another. Long isolated in their dysphoria, these teens found and built communities first on bulletin board systems and email lists and later on web hosting services like Geocities. </p>
<p>Avery Dame-Griff, the director of the Queer History Digital Project, has studied <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-bulletin-board-systems-email-lists-and-geocities-pages-of-the-early-internet-created-a-place-for-trans-youth-to-find-one-another-and-explore-coming-out-159681">these early internet communities</a> and how they gave trans teens a place to be themselves without the threat of rejection or reprisal. He writes that in these spaces, they were able to use “gendered colors and graphics without fear of outing themselves” or post “photos wearing the clothes they felt comfortable in.” Some even used their own homepages to track the progression of their transition.</p>
<h2>3. Survey says?</h2>
<p>That young people with gender dysphoria in the 20th century – with scant social support and few resources – nonetheless sought help and advice from doctors and, later, strangers on the internet is a testament to the truth of their experiences.</p>
<p>But past examples don’t necessarily explain current trends.</p>
<p>It’s certainly true that, thanks to growing acceptance from parents, doctors and peers, young people with gender dysphoria are <a href="https://theconversation.com/trans-youth-are-coming-out-and-living-in-their-gender-much-earlier-than-older-generations-156829">becoming increasingly comfortable</a> coming out of the closet and transitioning.</p>
<p>There is, however, a difference between gender dysphoria and gender identification. And it’s the latter that can fan out across the population as more young people become comfortable with the language, nuances and politics of gender.</p>
<p>Someone might identify as transgender, genderfluid, <a href="https://transequality.org/issues/resources/understanding-non-binary-people-how-to-be-respectful-and-supportive">genderqueer or nonbinary</a> – which means they don’t fit <a href="https://www.glaad.org/amp/9-young-people-explain-what-being-non-binary-means-them">neatly into the category of “male” or “female”</a> – because they want to embrace ambiguity, reject categorization or tap into different sides of their personality. Familiarity and dexterity with the terminology can be a reflection of class, culture, education and politics. (It’s worth noting that the word “transgender” <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-in-a-word-the-challenges-of-transgender-38633">didn’t even exist in the English language until the 1960s</a>.) </p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>For these reasons, social scientists have had a difficult time pinning down the exact numbers of trans youth. One widely cited 2017 study by the Williams Institute at the UCLA School of Law estimated that <a href="https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/publications/age-trans-individuals-us/">0.7% of teens ages 13 to 17</a> identified as transgender, while a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study from that same year found that <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.15585%2Fmmwr.mm6803a3">1.8% of high school students identified as transgender</a>.</p>
<p>But Kacie Kidd, an adolescent medicine fellow at the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Adolescent & Young Adult Health, saw a flaw in the way these surveys – and others – had been conducted. They often simply asked kids if they were transgender. But in her work with gender-questioning youth, she had noticed that not everyone called themselves “transgender.” Far from it.</p>
<p>So she and her team designed a survey for high school students in Pittsburgh using more inclusive questions. Of the 3,168 young people who completed the questions, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2020-049823">9.2% had a gender identity that did not fully align</a> with their sex assigned at birth.</p>
<p>Yet before statistics like this get thrown around as indicative of some sort of social contagion that’s exposing teens to life-altering medical interventions, it’s important to parse what it means to identify a certain way, and what it means to truly have dysphoria. Just because someone doesn’t want to identify as male or female in a traditional sense doesn’t mean that they’ll need to immediately start taking puberty blockers.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15532739.2011.700873">Not all gender-diverse people have gender dysphoria</a>,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-study-finds-nearly-10-of-youth-identify-as-gender-diverse-161640">Kidd writes</a>. “But those who do may benefit from gender-affirming care.” </p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em>
</p><hr><p></p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404379/original/file-20210603-15-bb4qy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404379/original/file-20210603-15-bb4qy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404379/original/file-20210603-15-bb4qy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404379/original/file-20210603-15-bb4qy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404379/original/file-20210603-15-bb4qy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404379/original/file-20210603-15-bb4qy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404379/original/file-20210603-15-bb4qy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404379/original/file-20210603-15-bb4qy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><strong>Transgender youth.</strong> This article is part of <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/trans-youth-2021-102529">a series</a> exploring the social and medical issues of transgender children and their families. Sign up for a <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/transgender-youth-77/">four-email newsletter “course”</a> to learn about the latest research on trans youth.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161962/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Some skeptics say that the growing prevalence of transgender teens is a fad. But history and some recent research show it’s not so simple.Nick Lehr, Arts + Culture EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1577502021-05-04T12:16:13Z2021-05-04T12:16:13ZTwo classes of trans kids are emerging – those who have access to puberty blockers, and those who don’t<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398409/original/file-20210503-19-4w4g9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C37%2C1915%2C1411&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Transitioning is possible after going through puberty, but it's much more difficult for trans people to look the way they want to look.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/illustration-of-the-question-of-belonging-to-royalty-free-illustration/1311856269?adppopup=true">Elena Medvedeva/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For people who have never thought about it before, it might sound reasonable to require trans kids to wait until they’re adults before they can receive certain forms of care known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/im-a-pediatrician-who-cares-for-transgender-kids-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-social-support-puberty-blockers-and-other-medical-options-that-improve-lives-of-transgender-youth-157285">gender-affirming treatment</a> – which is what <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/arkansas-passes-bill-ban-gender-affirming-care-trans-youth-n1262412">legislation that just passed in Arkansas</a> does.</p>
<p>But this type of legislation actually prevents kids from accessing treatment before and during a crucial period of development: puberty. </p>
<p>When I was researching my book “<a href="https://nyupress.org/9781479885794/the-trans-generation/">The Trans Generation: How Trans Kids and Their Parents are Creating a Gender Revolution</a>,” I observed how not all trans kids can access the care they want or need during this critical stage of life. This unequal access to gender-affirming health care, which occurs across state lines and socioeconomic divides, could cause two “classes” of transgender people in the United States to emerge – those who are able to take hormone blockers, and those who aren’t able to do so. </p>
<p>Those in the latter group can endure more <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/transgender-medical-care-surgery-expensive-2019-6">financial hardship</a>, <a href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/326590#recovery">physical pain</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2019-1725">mental anguish</a> later in life, while becoming much more vulnerable to discrimination and violence.</p>
<h2>A paradigm shift in trans treatment</h2>
<p>For decades, kids who didn’t conform to the gender expected of them were forced to endure treatments designed to “cure” their gender nonconformity. <a href="https://www.aacap.org/aacap/policy_statements/2018/Conversion_Therapy.aspx">This form of therapy</a>, called “reparative” or “corrective,” typically involved instructing parents – and sometimes teachers – to subject children to constant surveillance and correction. If a child acted in ways that didn’t align with gender-expected behaviors, psychologists told caregivers to withhold affection and mete out punishments.</p>
<p>For example, in the 1970s, <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2011/US/06/07/sissy.boy.experiment/">a boy with the pseudonym Kraig</a> was a patient at UCLA’s “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/family-of-kirk-murphy-says-sissy-boy-experiment-led-to-his-suicide/2011/06/10/AGYfgvOH_blog.html">feminine boy project</a>,” a government-funded experiment that sought to evaluate ways to reverse feminine behavior in boys. </p>
<p>Kraig <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1901/jaba.1974.7-173">was subjected to shame-inducing treatments</a>, with therapists counseling his father to beat Kraig when he failed to conform to masculine norms. </p>
<p>He ended up committing suicide as an adult. </p>
<p>In recent years, however, there has been what transgender studies scholar Jake Pyne <a href="https://doi.org/10.3138/cjhs.23.1.CO1">has called</a> “a paradigm shift” in treatment. An ever-expanding <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00918369.2012.653305">body of research</a> <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27046450/">shows</a> that family support, social acceptance and access to supportive health care produce the best outcomes for transgender kids. </p>
<p>In 2011, the World Professional Association for Transgender Health <a href="https://www.wpath.org/publications/soc">took a position against gender-reparative therapy</a>, stating that any therapy that seeks to change the gender identity of a patient is unethical. Changes to the law have followed suit. For example, in 2014, California passed the <a href="http://transgenderlawcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/PublicFAQ.pdf">Student Success and Opportunity Act</a> to ban reparative therapy and require schools to permit transgender children to participate in activities and to access spaces and facilities according to their self-determined gender categories.</p>
<h2>Buying time</h2>
<p>As corrective or reparative programs have lost legitimacy, publicly and privately funded gender clinics featuring <a href="https://theconversation.com/im-a-pediatrician-who-cares-for-transgender-kids-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-social-support-puberty-blockers-and-other-medical-options-that-improve-lives-of-transgender-youth-157285">affirming models of treatment</a> for trans kids have sprung up across the U.S.</p>
<p>Affirming treatment focuses on enabling kids’ families to embrace their child’s gender identity, and supporting them in dealing with any resulting discrimination or mental health issues. </p>
<p>This treatment model doesn’t steer patients toward any particular gender identity. However, if a child makes the decision to transition to another gender, a number of medical interventions are available. </p>
<p><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18667644/">According to the clinical literature surrounding gender-affirming practice</a>, the first goal of medical treatment is to buy time for the child or young person.</p>
<p>This is done through puberty-suppression therapy, via hormone blockers. The thinking goes that by delaying the onset of puberty, gender-nonconforming kids won’t be rushed into a decision before they experience the irreversible development of secondary sex characteristics. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/jme.2007.021097">The second goal</a> is a more “normal” and satisfactory appearance.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Four kids sit on a bed playing video games." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397910/original/file-20210429-13-76k4wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397910/original/file-20210429-13-76k4wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397910/original/file-20210429-13-76k4wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397910/original/file-20210429-13-76k4wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397910/original/file-20210429-13-76k4wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397910/original/file-20210429-13-76k4wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397910/original/file-20210429-13-76k4wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Four friends who are transitioning from male to female hang out together.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/lilly-curran-aged-11-who-is-transgender-and-is-part-of-a-news-photo/1055671872?adppopup=true">Adam Gray/Barcroft Media via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To accomplish both goals, access to hormone blockers is crucial. </p>
<p>For example, most children who have been assigned female at birth and take hormone blockers <a href="https://uihc.org/health-topics/top-surgery-transmen">will not need top surgery</a>. Meanwhile, children who have been assigned male at birth and take hormone blockers won’t need to later mitigate or reverse characteristics spurred by puberty: a deeper voice, facial hair, and a visible Adam’s apple and other results of male puberty that cannot be reversed.</p>
<p>Having the opportunity to take hormone blockers <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20461468/">has been linked</a> to reduced mental health vulnerability in transgender adults. </p>
<p>Children who are taking hormone blockers can decide to stop doing so at any time. They will then go through puberty consistent with their assigned sex at birth.</p>
<h2>A divide emerges</h2>
<p>Transitioning is possible after going through puberty, but it’s much more difficult for trans people to look the way they want to look. It’s also a lot more expensive.</p>
<p>This is where the divide opens up. Not everyone has supportive parents, good health insurance or doctors who are able to provide puberty-suppression therapy. Nor does everyone live in a state with progressive legislation. </p>
<p>When conducting research for my book, access was a big theme that emerged.</p>
<p>At the age of 16, Nathan, for example, hated his post-pubescent body so much that he engaged in self-harm. (The names used in my book are pseudonyms, as required by research protocol.) The top surgery he so desperately needed was out of reach because his family simply couldn’t afford it. His mom, Nora, describes being terrified that Nathan would kill himself because of this lack of access. </p>
<p>“It’s all because of this damn top surgery,” she told me. “And I am literally terrified, because I know for a fact that once he gets this done he’s going to be a totally different child. And it kills me that I can’t do anything.”</p>
<p>Seven-year-old Esme, on the other hand, knew very clearly from a young age that male puberty was not what she wanted and felt able to communicate this to her parents. And because of her parents’ support and access to affirming health care, she told me she’s planning to take hormone blockers when she’s old enough. Later, she’ll take <a href="https://www.issm.info/sexual-health-qa/what-is-cross-sex-hormone-therapy/">cross-sex hormones</a>, which will result in the development of secondary sex characteristics consistent with her self-defined gender identity.</p>
<p>Whether Esme chooses to be openly transgender or not as an adult will be mostly up to her; her physical appearance won’t mark her as trans.</p>
<p>Then there are the ways poverty and race are intertwined. Because Black, Native American and Latino trans kids <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/09/poverty-rates-for-blacks-and-hispanics-reached-historic-lows-in-2019.html">are disproportionately likely</a> to be living in poverty, <a href="https://read.dukeupress.edu/tsq/article-abstract/1/3/402/24758/The-Technical-Capacities-of-the-BodyAssembling">they’re less likely to have access to crucial treatments at a young age</a> that will make it easier to be a transgender adult.</p>
<p>And trans kids <a href="https://transequality.org/issues/resources/understanding-non-binary-people-how-to-be-respectful-and-supportive">who are nonbinary</a> – meaning they don’t feel like they’re strictly male or female – also face challenges in accessing affirming health care. Many medical professionals continue to see trans health care within a binary model: Patients are transitioning to either male or female. </p>
<p>Stef, who’s 14 years old and nonbinary, told me they had a far easier time accessing puberty blockers when they were asserting that they were a girl than when they subsequently adopted a nonbinary identity.</p>
<h2>A matter of life or death</h2>
<p>Ultimately, these disparities in access have repercussions. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20461468/">research indicates</a> a significant improvement in quality of life among adult transgender women who have undergone facial feminization surgery, which involves surgically altering facial bones and soft tissue to conform to female gender norms.</p>
<p>However, this is an expensive and painful procedure that transgender girls can forgo by simply undergoing puberty suppression treatment. Of course, some trans people don’t understand themselves to be trans early enough to advocate for themselves. And that’s OK. But the majority of transgender children <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46569010_Transgender_Children_in_Schools">remain invisible</a> – unable to articulate their feelings and longings because of unwelcoming and unsupportive environments.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Now, the availability of gender-affirming health care for teens is under threat in ways that go beyond insurance, cost and familial support. </p>
<p>In states like Arkansas, it’s a societal rejection of treatment that is, for some trans teens, a matter of life or death.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157750/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Travers receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Simon Fraser University Office of the Vice President, Research.</span></em></p>Puberty-suppression therapy gives trans teens the gift of time and the ability to attain a more desirable appearance.Travers, Professor of Sociology, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1278452019-12-03T16:03:21Z2019-12-03T16:03:21Z‘Frozen II’ helps children weather risk — and accept change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304314/original/file-20191128-178083-18gi33r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C12%2C1248%2C782&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'Frozen II' sees Elsa move towards being herself without fear of harming others. Here, Elsa, voiced by Idina Menzel, sprinkling snowflakes on Bruni, a salamander. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Disney via AP)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Disney’s <em>Frozen</em> has been a staple in my house since before it won an <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/frozen-oscars_n_4887295">Academy Award for best animated feature in 2014</a>. Before my girls could even talk, they were humming along to the famous “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-zXT5bIBM0">Do You Want to Build a Snowman</a>?” song. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2294629/plotsummary"><em>Frozen</em></a> is about a fearless princess named Anna who journeys to find her sister, Elsa, whose icy powers have trapped their kingdom in eternal winter. Anna’s quest to save the kingdom comes to an abrupt halt when she is frozen in a heroic act to save Elsa from being killed by Hans, who wants to take over the kingdom.</p>
<p>Now, <em>Frozen II</em> has broken box office records <a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/frozen-2-box-office-all-records-broken-1257703">for an animated film global opening</a> — and I’m not surprised. As a mom, I love that Anna and Elsa’s love for one another teaches my daughters to love each other and to take care of one another. And as an early childhood professional, I appreciate how the film <a href="https://www.tor.com/2016/06/23/fairy-tale-subversion-hans-christian-andersens-the-snow-queen/">reinterprets</a> and <a href="https://www.bustle.com/articles/38101-how-is-frozen-different-from-the-snow-queen-by-hans-christian-andersen-theyre-an-icy-world">retells</a> <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/2027/spo.act2080.0047.311">fairy tales</a> and myths to share powerful lessons about coping with change and taking risks.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eIw-dKqTtY0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Frozen II’ trailer.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lesson 1: Life is full of change</h2>
<p><em>Frozen II</em> begins with Elsa and Anna’s quest to discover the truth about their kingdom’s past, and Elsa’s gradual discovery that her charged and sometimes dangerous magical powers have deep origins. Anna, meanwhile, seeks to hold onto the sisters’ powerful bond while finding her own identity. </p>
<p>Olaf the snowman returns in this movie after being brought to life by Elsa in <em>Frozen</em>. No longer trapped in a perpetual ice world, the characters celebrate autumn. Olaf tells Anna about the difficulties he’s having. He observes changes in the season and anticipates change in the family with Anna and Kristoff’s engagement. He worries that “nothing is permanent.”</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304339/original/file-20191128-178121-1abe05n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304339/original/file-20191128-178121-1abe05n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304339/original/file-20191128-178121-1abe05n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304339/original/file-20191128-178121-1abe05n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304339/original/file-20191128-178121-1abe05n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304339/original/file-20191128-178121-1abe05n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304339/original/file-20191128-178121-1abe05n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Olaf the snowman, voiced by Josh Gad, finds comfort from Anna, voiced by Kristen Bell, in ‘Frozen II.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Disney)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Life is full of change. Children are constantly learning and growing, and are therefore experiencing large amounts of <a href="https://www.early-education.org.uk/sites/default/files/Helping%20children%20cope%20with%20change.pdf">change and transition each day</a>. </p>
<p>Change can include simple things like a change in season, or an unfamiliar food served at lunch. But changes like moving schools, parents divorcing or a death in the family can have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jftr.12243">profound effects on children</a>. Some children <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=30dIGIyRGf0C&printsec=frontcover&dq=how+children+adjust+to+change&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi0npXpj4bmAhUCnOAKHYz3AzIQ6AEIMDAB#v=onepage&q&f=false">can adjust</a> easily to changes, but for many children, change is scary. </p>
<p>Children who have a <a href="https://www.easternflorida.edu/community-resources/child-development-centers/parent-resource-library/documents/parenting-the-slow-to-warm-temperament.pdf">slow-to-warm-up temperament</a> may struggle with change more than easygoing children. Children who have difficulty with trust may experience change as traumatic. For children <a href="https://raisingchildren.net.au/autism/behaviour/understanding-behaviour/changing-routines-asd">on the autism spectrum</a>, change, especially if it alters their predetermined structure, can be especially difficult.</p>
<h2>How to assure children</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304341/original/file-20191128-178135-io20w4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304341/original/file-20191128-178135-io20w4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304341/original/file-20191128-178135-io20w4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304341/original/file-20191128-178135-io20w4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304341/original/file-20191128-178135-io20w4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304341/original/file-20191128-178135-io20w4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304341/original/file-20191128-178135-io20w4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Olaf comes to understand that growing up means adapting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Disney)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Through Olaf’s discussion with Anna, he comes to understand that “growing up means adapting, puzzling at your world and your place.”</p>
<p>In the face of Olaf’s sadness and unease about the unknown, Anna assures Olaf that it’s important to rely on the certainties: “Yes, the wind blows a little bit colder, and we’re all getting older,” but “some things stay the same.”</p>
<p>She reassures him that as things change, there will always be people in your life who will support you.</p>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-1-4614-3661-4">Resilience is important for learning</a>,
relationships and being able to handle difficult situations. Coping with change is a part of <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED386327">building resilience</a> and an essential skill for future success. </p>
<p>You can help children adapt to change by talking about it. Have discussions about what’s changing and why. If the change is unexpected, share with them only what you know about the change. It’s OK to tell children: “I don’t know.”</p>
<p>Have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02739615.2012.657040">routines</a> and consider transitions. When children know what comes first, then next and can predict some of what will happen, they are learning to think through situations and solve problems. Both these skills are important when managing the emotions that come with change.</p>
<p>Accept <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07481187.2012.718037">children’s grief</a> through change, especially during significant situations like the death of a loved one or a divorce. It’s important to listen to their feelings and respond to their questions and worries.</p>
<p>Give them choices and let them be a part of the change — this allows them to feel like they have control. With control comes acceptance. For example, if you’re moving to a new home, let your child help pick out the paint colours.</p>
<h2>Lesson 2: Taking risks</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304342/original/file-20191128-178078-ofhy8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304342/original/file-20191128-178078-ofhy8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304342/original/file-20191128-178078-ofhy8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304342/original/file-20191128-178078-ofhy8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304342/original/file-20191128-178078-ofhy8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304342/original/file-20191128-178078-ofhy8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304342/original/file-20191128-178078-ofhy8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anna’s journey leads her out of her sister’s shadow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Disney)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Elsa and Anna’s comfort zone was their kingdom, Arendelle. As they embark on their journey into the enchanted forest to discover their family’s history, Olaf reminds us <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/203434/the-uses-of-enchantment-by-bruno-bettelheim/">that the enchanted forest</a> — where we step outside of our comfort zones while looking to trusted guides or companions — is a place of transformation. </p>
<p>It’s important to take risks throughout life, but the uncertainty of taking risks can be scary. There is a feeling of unease associated with not knowing the outcome, as well as fear of potential failure. </p>
<p>Elsa depicts this fear in her musical response to the enchanted forests’ calling for her. She sings:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I can hear you, but I won’t … There’s a thousand reasons I should go about my day and ignore your whispers, which I wish would go away.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Elsa takes a leap of faith, plunges into the unknown and finally embarks on an adventure to discover hidden truths. She finds a place where she can be herself, without fear of harming anything with her powers. </p>
<p>Anna, meanwhile, becomes queen of Arendelle, a place where she no longer lives in her sister’s shadow — where she can shine.</p>
<h2>How to support children’s risk taking</h2>
<p>It’s important to allow children to participate in <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/6/6423/htm">risky play</a>. Risky play teaches children to regulate <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ985542">fear and anger</a>. They learn to manage and overcome obstacles. </p>
<p>Sometimes the outcome of risk-taking in both childhood and adulthood is failure. <a href="https://thriveglobal.com/stories/why-it-s-important-to-let-your-kid-fail/">Failure</a>, as difficult as it is, is an important part of life and necessary for children to learn for future success. We should help our children to see failure as a stepping stone to discovering who they are.</p>
<p>The forest howls and it’s scary. But with love and friendship, and having the courage to step into the unknown, in time princesses become queens, dangerous powers can become gifts — and snowmen can cope with autumn.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127845/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elena Merenda does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Frozen II teaches children that venturing into the enchanted forest — stepping outside of comfort zones while looking to trusted guides or companions — can be a place of positive transformation.Elena Merenda, Assistant Program Head of Early Childhood Studies, University of Guelph-HumberLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1045912018-10-11T13:46:34Z2018-10-11T13:46:34ZSouth Africa won’t create jobs unless it settles on a new social compact<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240075/original/file-20181010-72121-1cn15os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A significant number of South Africans can't find jobs and scrounge for a living on the sidelines of the economy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nearly a week has passed since South Africa’s <a href="http://jobssummit.co.za/">2018 jobs summit</a>. The two-day gathering produced some useful agreements between the social partners: government, organised labour and business (essentially, big business). </p>
<p>This was the fourth jobs summit in 20 years. The frequency of attempts to find a solution to the country’s unemployment problems isn’t surprising given that South Africa has one of the <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-09-03-more-adults-not-working-than-working-in-south-africa/">highest jobless rates</a> in the world. The unemployment rate has increased from under 22% in 2008 to the current rate of <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2018/07/31/sa-unemployment-rate-rises-to-27-2-in-q2">27.2%</a>. </p>
<p>But the record on delivering results has been mixed, to say the least. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/1998-05-29-threats-to-job-summit">first jobs summit</a> in the post 1994 era was held in 1998 when Nelson Mandela’s presidency was nearing its end and amid a developing country debt crisis. It achieved very little. The next one – <a href="http://www.polity.org.za/article/mbeki-growth-and-development-summit-07062003-2003-06-07">the 2003 Growth and Development Summit</a> – achieved significant agreements. But these were poorly monitored and implemented.</p>
<p>Six years later in 2009 social partners agreed on a <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/10717/">framework</a> to respond to the global financial crisis. In spite of the measures introduced by agreements reached at the gathering, South Africa <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09765239.2014.11884980">lost</a> nearly a million jobs.</p>
<p>Undoubtedly the outcome of the recent summit is positive. Job-saving elements of the 2009 agreement have been revived. There are forward-looking commitments such as finance for the black industrialist scheme and a focus on the export of manufactured products. There are initiatives for small business support, technical training and a mechanism for the absorption of <a href="http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/print-version/jobs-summit-2018-10-04">graduates into the economy</a>.</p>
<p>But perhaps the most important outcome was that a Presidential jobs council will be established to <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_documents/Jobs_Summit_FrameWork_Agreement.pdf">monitor progress</a>. </p>
<p>As welcome as these developments are, the agreement doesn’t explicitly acknowledge that there might be some fundamental issues in the approach to development and job creation in South Africa. In a <a href="http://www.effective-states.org/wp-content/uploads/working_papers/final-pdfs/esid_wp_105_hirsch_levy.pdf">paper just published</a> Brian Levy and I identify what these might be.</p>
<p>We argue that the <a href="http://www.effective-states.org/wp-content/uploads/working_papers/final-pdfs/esid_wp_105_hirsch_levy.pdf">implicit social compact</a> of the 1990s laid a poor foundation for job creating growth in South Africa. Our view is that unless South Africa revisits the implicit and explicit deals struck at that time, the chances of making serious inroads into unemployment are remote. </p>
<p>But is South Africa in the kind of crisis as Mauritius was in 1968 and Ireland in 1988, where key social players were forced to review the social compact and work together towards a coherent developmental model? And do the social partners have strong enough leaders to arrive at suitable agreements? </p>
<p>These are the questions excitingly raised by the outcome of jobs summit, and should, in our view, be the preoccupation of the President’s jobs council.</p>
<h2>The 1990s compact</h2>
<p>An elite bargain over the country’s economic framework formed an essential part of the foundation for a democratic South Africa. The context of the bargaining process included the capitulation of the communist block, economic stagnation in most African countries, and a relentless campaign by the white South African business community for government not to intervene in the economic framework. </p>
<p>There was the threat of flight of capital and white citizens who were virtually monopoly owners of wealth and key economic skills and networks. What emerged was an apparently strong commitment to market-opening reforms.</p>
<p>The result is well known. The economic policies emphasised what was then called “getting the prices right and what we call "disciplining reforms”. This included: trade and financial liberalisation, fiscal restraint, tougher competition laws and a conservative mandate for the central bank. </p>
<p>Conversely, policies lacked on the side of interventionist mechanisms that were effective in some more successful developing countries. These included support for industrial innovation, cluster development and industrial policy which would have encouraged domestic investment in job creating growth.</p>
<p>Policy choices weren’t the only problem. Key players in the economy were pursuing new agendas as their options had broadened with the end of South Africa’s economic isolation and the repression of apartheid.</p>
<p><a href="https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3350068/aghion_southafrica.pdf?sequence=2">South African corporations</a> were focused on narrowing their South African operations and spreading their activities and assets abroad. While they cast off some non-core assets, the corporations remain extraordinarily powerful.</p>
<p>At the same time, the trade unions used their bargaining power with government to strengthen worker rights. All labour laws had to go through the newly formed National Economic Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC) and could not go through until all parties were happy. The result was that big business, which always dominated the business delegation, agreed to labour laws that they could manage with their sophisticated human resource departments and because of the choices they could exercise. However, these laws were not all easy to implement for small and medium companies. </p>
<p>In addition, the reformed industrial training system was poorly designed which set back industrial training for many years.</p>
<p>The market opening reforms combined with the labour reforms achieved very little in the way of supporting dynamic investment and innovation. So, the elite pact that emerged reflected what powerful stakeholders were prepared to agree too – not a coherent package derived from carefully thought out trade-offs. </p>
<p>Compared with outcomes of more successful social pacts like Mauritius in the late 1960s and Ireland in the late 1980s, South Africa’s social compact failed. And over time commitment to the elements of the compact waned.</p>
<h2>In a different world</h2>
<p>In a different world, perhaps, had South African elites agreed on a clear developmental model and had they strived for suitable strategies, the outcome might have been very different. There would have been a much stronger emphasis on the more interventionist kinds of supportive industrial policies.</p>
<p>It’s not too late. More recently, industrial policy has formed part of the approach of government as seen in major initiatives in several sectors.</p>
<p>Informed analysts in South Africa are now asking “Where is growth going to come from?” Skilled people are streaming out the country as they did in Mauritius in the 1960s and in Ireland in the 1980s. Could it be that this is the moment for a coherent, developmental social compact?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104591/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Hirsch received funding from the Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Programme at the University of Manchester for research relating to this article.</span></em></p>South Africa’s jobs summit failed to acknowledge fundamental issues in the approach to development and job creation.Alan Hirsch, Professor and Director of The Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1011732018-08-29T10:45:19Z2018-08-29T10:45:19ZFor the parents of gender-nonconforming kids, a new approach to care<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233711/original/file-20180827-75987-11t802s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Self-knowledge rarely comes packaged in a single coherent narrative. Yet this is the expectation we have of the children in our lives.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dark-silhouette-human-on-782335870?src=0Rg-D5nwbfa_AopTZPIj0w-1-0">Billion Photos</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ari had a difficult time talking about his gender. </p>
<p>He had always been feminine, insisting on wearing only androgynous clothing, flowing pants in bright colors, patterned shirts and scarves. His hair was long and carefully arranged, and his nails were usually painted with a kaleidoscope of colors. By the time he was 12, he vacillated between using male and female names and pronouns. At school, he mostly socialized with female classmates while performing in school plays and making art. </p>
<p>When I met his mother, Sandy, at an event for parents of trans and gender-nonconforming children, she spoke anxiously about his experience of puberty, his struggles with depression and the daunting task of helping him cope with the changes in his body. Sandy read every parenting manual on gender nonconformity she could get her hands on. She wasn’t sure whether Ari would grow up to be a gay man or a transgender woman, and she felt a tremendous amount of discomfort with that uncertainty.</p>
<p>Sandy was like many parents I met while doing research for <a href="https://teymeadow.com/trans-kids/">my new book</a> on families raising gender-nonconforming children. These parents often struggled with the question of how to tell if their child was really transgender, merely experimenting with gender or, instead, simply growing into an adolescent gay identity. </p>
<h2>The media teaches parents to doubt</h2>
<p>The parents and clinicians with whom I spoke all wished that there was some foolproof method to determine whether kids were actually trans. They longed for a formula that would tell them, with certainty, that they could safely assist these kids with social and medical gender transition without fear of mistake or regret.</p>
<p>News articles and blog posts on the subject seem to appear weekly. In July, for example, The Atlantic published a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/07/when-a-child-says-shes-trans/561749/">cover story</a> about Claire, a gender-nonconforming 14-year-old. After a period of consideration, Claire decided that she didn’t ultimately feel the need to transition. The author of that article, Jesse Singal, used Claire’s experience to illustrate the complexities of parenting gender-diverse children.</p>
<p>I found the article troubling, however, because it was a prime example of two dangerous trends in public discussions of parenting gender-nonconforming youth.</p>
<p>First, Claire’s experience is not at all typical. The American Psychological Association <a href="http://www.apadivisions.org/division-44/resources/advocacy/transgender-children.pdf">has found</a> that children who “consistently, persistently and insistently” tell the adults who surround them that they are transgender almost never have a sudden and complete change of heart. Indeed, they say, gender identity is resistant – if not immutable – to environmental intervention. Children can and do learn to “cover,” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/15/magazine/the-pressure-to-cover.html">a term sociologists use</a> for downplaying parts of one’s identity to assimilate. But that’s different from no longer feeling transgender.</p>
<p>Second – and perhaps more important – this article and others shift the focus from whether a child might be transgender to asking how it might be possible for them to not be. </p>
<p>This is called “<a href="https://tearaway.co.nz/cisheteronormativity/">cisnormativity</a>” – the cultural belief that being gender-normative is inherently better than being trans. And the media is, at times, its biggest proponent. </p>
<p>Stories and false statistics that exaggerate the proportion of children who stop exhibiting gender nonconformity may offer comfort to anxious parents who long for an easy life for their kids. They also prompt those parents to interpret any signs of struggle or ambivalence as de facto evidence their child is not trans, to withhold information about transgender lives from interested children and to create an atmosphere in which children learn to hide the complexities of their experiences to garner the approval of adults.</p>
<h2>Embracing uncertainty</h2>
<p>This is not a new story. </p>
<p>For decades, transgender adults <a href="https://www.umass.edu/stonewall/sites/default/files/Infoforandabout/transpeople/genny_beemyn_transgender_history_in_the_united_states.pdf">have written about</a> how, when seeking gender reassignment, they needed to seem authentically trans – and report a total identification with the other gender – to physicians and psychologists. This could entail an exclusive preference for clothing and activities consistent with the other gender, a heterosexual sexual orientation and an ability to pass as a member of that gender. Absent those criteria, trans people would be turned away from medical care and disbelieved by friends and family. </p>
<p>As a result, many learned to cover up their ambivalences, struggles and self-doubts. They learned to present a version of trans that seemed foolproof to cisgender people: a narrative in which gender is certain, impervious to the vicissitudes of actual emotional life. </p>
<p>This is not to say these trans people were uncertain about who they were. That’s simply untrue. But self-knowledge rarely comes packaged in a single coherent narrative. </p>
<p>And yet, this is the expectation we have of the children in our lives.</p>
<p>It’s possible to do better. Development is not a linear process. It can weave through joy and ambivalence, through pain and delight. Adult gender doesn’t come easily to anyone. It’s fertile ground for self-doubt and humiliation, experimentation and adaptation. </p>
<p>Think for a moment about your own adolescence, the time when you experienced rapid bodily changes, social maturity and emergent sexuality. Few of us remember this process as smooth and linear. Now imagine you had adults – perhaps even your parents – scrutinizing this process each step of the way and trying to nudge you to fit neatly into an identity or way of behaving that felt uncomfortable. This is a recipe for depression and anxiety in children. In anyone, really.</p>
<p>It doesn’t have to be that way. Gender-nonconforming children who are supported by their parents in expressing their identities by and large thrive. In fact, recent studies show that trans youth who are affirmed and supported by their families to transition <a href="http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2016/02/24/peds.2015-3223">are psychologically healthier</a> than children who are gender-nonconforming but receive no such encouragement.</p>
<h2>Moving toward an affirmative model</h2>
<p>Dealing with uncertainty and ambivalence can be especially difficult for parents who fear their children will face discrimination in their communities. But the truth is, it’s difficult for all parents. </p>
<p>As more families grapple with the complexities of gender development, we see stories of children and parents being offered guidance and support by clinicians who work from “<a href="http://www.apa.org/pubs/books/4317487.aspx?tab=1">an affirmative model of care</a>.” </p>
<p>This affirmative model doesn’t push kids toward a transgender outcome or even a linear narrative. Instead, clinicians teach parents to pause, absorb the messages their children are sending and then articulate what they are seeing back to their children. Parents and psychologists help children express their genders in authentic ways, and then work to understand the significance of the things they are saying and doing. It takes time and practice.</p>
<p>Affirmative clinical work treats all gender variations as <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00107530.2014.942591?scroll=top&needAccess=true&journalCode=uucp20">signs of health</a> – not illness – and supports the unhurried unfolding of a child’s emergent self. In this context, uncertainty and ambivalence are a part of transgender development, just as they are for all gender development.</p>
<p>After some time and discussion, Sandy, Ari and his therapist decided to put Ari on Lupon, one of a <a href="http://gendercreativekids.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/TransActive-OHSC-Testimony.pdf">class of drugs</a> used to suspend the body’s production of the hormones that incite puberty. Sandy works hard to allow Ari to vacillate in his gender presentation and in his sense of self. </p>
<p>When we last spoke, she told me she didn’t know where he would end up. She knew there was no foolproof way to tell, only a process to endure. </p>
<p>Whatever the conclusion, she told me, Ari knew that she was walking alongside him – but letting him lead the way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101173/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tey Meadow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The signs might be there. But parents and clinicians will still wonder if there’s some foolproof way to determine whether their children are actually trans. There isn’t one – and that’s okay.Tey Meadow, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Columbia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/922312018-02-26T15:57:16Z2018-02-26T15:57:16ZHow Olympic athletes grapple with life once the thrill is gone<p>Hundreds of Winter Olympians around the world are saying farewell to the thrill of a lifetime. While a handful will leave as delighted medal winners, the majority leave empty-handed.</p>
<p>Whether they won the medal or not, some find themselves navigating uncharted waters into an uncertain future. In many cases, they’ve trained and devoted themselves to their sport for years. </p>
<p>Suddenly, the lights go dim.</p>
<p>As a former Olympian who’s now a sport psychologist, I know from firsthand experience that it’s not easy. Being an athlete is central to the identity of most Olympians, and transitioning away from training and competing can be daunting.</p>
<h2>Daily life upended</h2>
<p>In the early 1980s, psychologist Nancy K. Schlossberg developed her <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=BCobGX6ofOMC&lpg=PR9&ots=V3U8_rNbNQ&dq=nancy%20schlossberg%20transition%20theory&lr&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false">transition theory</a>. It recognizes that people are prone to stress whenever they experience shifts in routines, relationships and roles, and changes that can happen at home, at work and at school.</p>
<p>For Olympians, a transition back to everyday life represents a break from months of highly structured routines. No longer are they expected to be accountable to their teammates or coaches. And no longer do they have an impending competition to motivate them. </p>
<p>Some of the most immediate challenges involve making a decision: Should an athlete continue his or her studies? Or search for a job? <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-olympic-athletes-pay-the-electric-bill-63157">Most Olympic athletes receive very little funding</a> and need to find a way to financially support themselves outside of their sport.</p>
<p>Many also need to decide whether they even want to continue participating in their sport. This might seem like no-brainer for some, especially those who are young, healthy and still at the top of their game, like 17-year-old snowboarders Chloe Kim and Red Gerard.</p>
<p>But for those whose physical prowess is waning and who have growing families it’s a distressing decision. After three-time Olympic medalist Lindsey Vonn won a bronze medal in the downhill ski event, <a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-olympics-womens-downhill-hernandez-20180220-story.html">she acknowledged</a> that she was at a different point in her career – perhaps the end – because her body was breaking down.</p>
<p>“I wish I could keep skiing,” she told the LA Times. “I wish my body didn’t hurt as bad as it does.”</p>
<h2>A flimsy sense of self</h2>
<p>For athletes who have invested years of their life to get to the Olympics, they have to contend with what sports psychologists call their “<a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/record/1994-03969-001">athletic identity</a>,” which is the extent to which being an athlete is entwined with their sense of self. </p>
<p>For athletes who have a strong athletic identity, the lifestyle of being an athlete is central to how they see themselves and how others may see and treat them. When they’re competing, it can serve as a source of great strength, meaning and perseverance. But when age, injury or failure occur, it can become an Achilles heel: All of a sudden, they’re unmoored.</p>
<p>Retiring from playing a sport is as weighty a decision as retiring from a job or changing career paths. It can create a huge void and can force athletes to reflect on their careers and question their performance: Am I weak or strong? Was my athletic career a success or a failure? How resilient am I? How do I craft the next chapter in my life? </p>
<h2>When the music’s over</h2>
<p>As a psychologist, I’ve had the privilege of working with many ex-Olympic athletes who have struggled with this transition. </p>
<p>I’ve also personally been through a post-Olympic transition. </p>
<p>In my case, before the end of the 1984 Olympic Games, I returned home to Morgantown, West Virginia, with a gold medal in the men’s English match rifle shooting event. But I was also saddled with the memory of a mediocre 15th-place finish in a different event. </p>
<p>All of a sudden, my years-long journey of preparation, sacrifice and competition was over. Luckily, I had a job waiting for me as a shooting coach and was enrolled in a graduate program in professional psychology. I decided that I needed to retire in order to focus on work and school, and was able to move on from being an Olympic athlete with little, if any, regret.</p>
<p>But each athlete’s path and story differs. For every <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelle_Kwan#Public_life">Michelle Kwan</a>, who went on to become an author and a public diplomacy ambassador for the United States, there’s a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/the-mystery-of-why-the-best-african-american-figure-skater-in-history-went-bankrupt-and-lives-in-a-trailer/2016/02/25/a191972c-ce99-11e5-abc9-ea152f0b9561_story.html?utm_term=.475e205bcb44">Debi Thomas</a>, the former figure skater who declared bankruptcy in 2014 and is grappling with mental health issues.</p>
<p>Those who struggle the most post-games are perhaps those who had high expectations that went unfulfilled, which can lead to a lifetime of “what-ifs” and second guessing.</p>
<p>But the Maasai people of Kenya have a saying about life: “Everything ends.” </p>
<p>It’s a maxim that every Olympic athlete – medal winner or not – should take to heart.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92231/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edward Etzel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For athletes returning home – especially those who are on the cusp of retirement – the transition can be daunting.Edward Etzel, Professor of Sport and Exercise Psychology, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/918642018-02-18T07:54:38Z2018-02-18T07:54:38ZThe five priorities South Africa’s new administration should focus on<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206534/original/file-20180215-131038-tbpn19.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Times of political transition bring turmoil and uncertainty. But if the country’s national security is not threatened, minds can focus on what an incoming administration should do to proceed with the business of governance. This should be in the minds of South Africans as the country navigates through a <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/opinion/zumaresigns-but-not-before-threatening-to-take-the-house-down-with-him-13295514">difficult political process</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://probonomatters.co.za/2018/02/president-jacob-zuma-resigns-full-anc-statement/">President Jacob Zuma</a> has been in power for the past eight years. While there were some notable achievements, his period in power was marked by a period of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-state-capture-is-a-regressive-step-for-any-society-56837">corruption</a> and nepotism during which well connected individuals extracted favours from the Zuma network of associates, the Gupta family being the most obvious cast of characters. This process of state capture was made possible by the president’s lack of moral direction, exemplified by accusations of rape and theft. </p>
<p>The challenge now is to recover a damaged state and a fractious political environment.</p>
<h2>The levers of power</h2>
<p>The new administration will be composed of a new executive in the form of the newly elected president as head of state. In South Africa’s case, parliament will elect the president who has the authority to appoint political colleagues (mostly trusted friends and allies) to head up departmental portfolios. These appointments collectively make up the cabinet which is responsible for setting overall policy direction. </p>
<p>In a robust democracy a cabinet and its president (the executive) is held accountable by the legislature. Over the past few years parliament’s oversight role went by the wayside, overridden by the overwhelming role of the ruling party. </p>
<p>In South Africa’s post-apartheid period, senior civil servants – directors general and their deputies – have played an equally important role in shaping policy direction. A new administration often sees new senior bureaucrats taking their seats close to their political principals. Those that are replaced either retire or find a place in academia or the private sector, where they are able to add value given experience of the management of the affairs of state.</p>
<p>Assuming this falls into place, what should the new administration do as a matter of priority?</p>
<h2>The priorities</h2>
<p><strong>Manage the public mood:</strong> Political stability remains the bedrock of any successful transition. The most important immediate priority is to offer credible evidence of a competent team in charge. South Africa and the world at large needs to see a strong government taking charge. The recent attempt by the ruling party’s Secretary General, <a href="https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-02-14-ace-still-singing-zumas-praises/">Ace Magashule</a>, to explain Zuma’s recall is a model of how not to manage change.</p>
<p><strong>Stabilise the African National Congress:</strong> Perception management should extend to the affairs of the ruling party. The ruling party matters because it determines the composition of government. It deploys loyal cadres to occupy senior positions in government. </p>
<p>In addition, without party unity and public support the outcome of the 2019 national election are unpredictable. A collapsing ruling party (and <a href="https://www.ujuh.co.za/maimane-we-see-opportunities-to-takeover-national-government-from-anc-in-2019/">opportunistic coalition formations</a> will lead to political instability, preventing any new team from achieving much. </p>
<p>The evidence so far of coalition governance (particularly in South Africa’s large metropolitan areas such as Pretoria/Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay) does not <a href="https://city-press.news24.com/Voices/ancs-big-loss-20160819">inspire confidence. </a>. This is largely because South Africa doesn’t have experience of “compromise governance”. </p>
<p>Arguably, a strong and united political opposition might be able to keep a weakened ruling party on its toes, provided disgruntled comrades do not revert to tried-and-tested methods of political thuggery, as experienced in <a href="https://www.news24.com/MyNews24/no-end-to-political-killings-in-kzn-20171124">KwaZulu-Natal</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Address the economy:</strong> The most difficult challenge for the incoming administration relates to unemployment, poverty and inequality. Unemployment has remained stubbornly high, last count had it at <a href="https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/unemployment-rate-unchanged-at-27-7-in-q3/">27.7%</a>, and economic growth has collapsed over the years to less than <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Economy/world-bank-predicts-just-11-gdp-growth-for-sa-in-2018-20180109">1%</a>. Without growth there won’t be a reduction in poverty and inequality.</p>
<p>It’s government’s job to create an enabling environment for stakeholders to invest and grow the economy. It must ensure that citizens develop skills and use them in decent jobs. And social partners can then search for common ground in addressing the country’s developmental deficits. </p>
<p><strong>Strengthen the state:</strong> Any new administration will falter if the machinery of the state is unable or unwilling to deliver social services. Addressing crime and lawlessness is also key, as its unchecked cancerous growth undermines and paralyses the national will. </p>
<p><strong>Reassure international partners:</strong> a recalibration of the nation’s foreign, trade and security policies and strategies is needed. South Africa is a trading nation and needs partners in Africa and further afield. It needs to invest in peace and stability and its soldiers. And its diplomats and development workers must be professional at their job. This requires a rethink of the instruments of the country’s foreign policy.</p>
<p>All in all, the new administration will have a lot of governance challenges on its plate. It therefore needs to throw its weight behind a consultative process to establish a social and economic compact that will address the challenges of inclusive growth, poverty and inequality. This compact also needs to come up with answers to the question: how do we enable our youth to embrace tomorrow’s complex world of work?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthoni van Nieuwkerk receives funding from the NRF and is a member of the South African Council on International Relations.</span></em></p>South Africa’s new administration, under the leadership of Cyril Ramaphosa, can make some quick wins by focusing on fixing a few key areas.Anthoni van Nieuwkerk, Associate Professor, School of Governance, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/777662017-06-06T00:11:30Z2017-06-06T00:11:30ZThe psychological benefits – and trappings – of nostalgia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172281/original/file-20170605-16849-yeqof8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Winslow Homer's 'Boys in a Pasture' (1874).</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b9/Winslow_Homer_-_Boys_in_a_Pasture.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In his song “Time Was,” counterculture singer <a href="http://www.metrolyrics.com/time-was-lyrics-phil-ochs.html">Phil Ochs reminisces</a> about a past “when a man could build a home, have a family of his own. The peaceful years would flow; he could watch his children grow. But it was a long time ago.” </p>
<p>To Ochs, simpler times were better: “troubles were few…a man could have his pride; there was justice on his side…there was truth in every day.” </p>
<p><a href="http://www.allmusic.com/artist/phil-ochs-mn0000333634/biography">Ochs</a> recorded “Time Was” in 1962, when he was just 22 years old. He had yet to witness the most tumultuous parts of the 1960s – the assassinations of President John F. Kennedy and Senator Robert F. Kennedy, the polarization wrought by the Vietnam War, and the civil rights and feminist movements.</p>
<p>Half a century later – with the rapid, dramatic consequences of social and political upheaval, with technological advances that have radically transformed our daily lives – some might similarly find themselves longing for a time when “troubles were few” and “there was truth in every day.” </p>
<p>Constantly being plugged into the internet and social media <a href="http://akademiai.com/doi/abs/10.1556/2006.4.2015.010">is thought to be associated with higher rates of anxiety and depression</a>. Online messaging and communication <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-news-sites-online-comments-helped-build-our-hateful-electorate-70170">have created misunderstanding and divisions</a>, and many feel as though <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/270006660_The_dark_side_of_social_networking_sites_An_exploration_of_the_relational_and_psychological_stressors_associated_with_Facebook_use_and_affordances">they’ve lost control over their privacy</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.prri.org/research/survey-anxiety-nostalgia-and-mistrust-findings-from-the-2015-american-values-survey/">A recent poll</a> even revealed that a majority of Americans think that America’s culture and way of life have mostly changed for the worse since the 1950s. </p>
<p>But what effect does this longing have? Is it a useful psychological tool or a perilous trapping?</p>
<h2>A bittersweet longing</h2>
<p>In life, change is the default, not the exception; transformation is baked into every aspect of our world, from physical growth to scientific progress. Novelty, meanwhile, is an antidote to boredom, stagnation and satiation. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, people long for stability. Change can threaten well-being, especially when it requires a new set of skills to meet new demands. Stress can accompany unexpected or extreme change, since our ability to control situations depends upon a reasonable degree of predictability. (Imagine not knowing if a stone would fall or rise when you let go of it.) </p>
<p>Nostalgia is a bittersweet yearning for the past. It’s sweet because it allows us to momentarily relive good times; it’s bitter because we recognize that those times can never return. Longing for our own past is referred to as personal nostalgia, and preferring a distant era is termed <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261582221_Historical_and_Personal_Nostalgia_in_Advertising_Text_The_Fin_de_siecle_Effect">historical nostalgia</a>. </p>
<p>Although nostalgia is universal, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/15575331_Nostalgia_A_Psychological_Perspective">research has shown</a> that a nostalgic yearning for the past is especially likely to occur during periods of transition, like maturing into adulthood or aging into retirement. Dislocation or alienation resulting from military conflict, moving to a new country or technological progress can also elicit nostalgia. </p>
<h2>A stablizing force</h2>
<p>In the face of instability, our mind will reach for our positive memories of the past, <a href="https://positivepsychologyprogram.com/pollyanna-principle/">which tend to be more crystallized</a> than negative or neutral ones. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172289/original/file-20170605-16888-1ocsgcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172289/original/file-20170605-16888-1ocsgcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172289/original/file-20170605-16888-1ocsgcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172289/original/file-20170605-16888-1ocsgcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172289/original/file-20170605-16888-1ocsgcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172289/original/file-20170605-16888-1ocsgcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=869&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172289/original/file-20170605-16888-1ocsgcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=869&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172289/original/file-20170605-16888-1ocsgcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=869&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Norman Rockwell’s ‘The Runaway’ (1958).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/x-ray_delta_one/6509431055">James Vaughan/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23646885">In the past</a>, theorists tended to think of nostalgia as a bad thing – a retreat in the face of uncertainty, stress or unhappiness. In 1985, psychoanalytic theorist <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1465-5922.1985.00135.x/abstract">Roderick Peters</a> described extreme nostalgia as debilitative, something “that persists and profoundly interferes with the individual’s attempts to cope with his present circumstances.”</p>
<p>But contemporary research, including my own, has contradicted this maladaptive view. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.wildschut.me/Tim_Wildschut/Home_files/Sedikides,%20Wildschut,%20Routledge,%20%26%20Arndt,%202015,%20European%20Journal%20of%20Social%20Psychology.pdf">A 2015 study</a> showed that nostalgic reminiscence can be a stabilizing force. It can strengthen our sense of personal continuity, reminding us that we possess a store of powerful memories that are deeply intertwined with our identity. The person who listened to his grandpa’s stories as a little boy, played youth baseball and partied with friends in high school is still that same person today. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Krystine_Batcho/publications">Research I’ve conducted since 1998</a> has shown that nostalgic memories tend to focus on our relationships, which can comfort us during stressful or difficult times. Although we’ve become independent and mature (perhaps even a bit jaded), we’re still our parents’ child, our brother’s sibling and our lover’s confidant. In developing a retrospective <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10902-010-9213-y">survey of childhood experiences</a>, I found that remembering that we experienced unconditional love as children can reassure us in the present – especially during trying times. These memories can fuel the courage to confront our fears, take reasonable risks and tackle challenges. Rather than trapping us in the past, nostalgia can liberate us from adversity by promoting personal growth.</p>
<p>My studies have also shown that people with a greater propensity for nostalgia <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24027948">are better able to cope</a> with adversity and are more likely to seek emotional support, advice and practical help from others. They’re also more likely to avoid distractions that prevent them from confronting their troubles and solving problems. </p>
<h2>Nostalgia’s fine line</h2>
<p>But for all its benefits, nostalgia can also seduce us into retreating into a romanticized past. </p>
<p>The desire to escape into the imagined, idealized world of a prior era – even one you weren’t alive for – represents a different, independent type of nostalgia called <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261582221_Historical_and_Personal_Nostalgia_in_Advertising_Text_The_Fin_de_siecle_Effect">historical nostalgia</a>. </p>
<p>Historical nostalgia is often concurrent with a deep dissatisfaction with the present and a preference for the way things were long ago. Unlike personal nostalgia, someone who experiences historical nostalgia might have a more cynical perspective of the world, one colored by pain, trauma, regret or <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10902-010-9213-y">adverse childhood experiences</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, from a treatment perspective, <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2753/RPO1061-0405490306">reports suggest</a> that personal nostalgia can be used therapeutically to help individuals move beyond trauma in the aftermath of violence, exile or loss. At the same time, someone who has endured trauma, without proper treatment, could become subsumed by a malignant form of nostalgia that leads to a perpetual yearning to return to the past.</p>
<p>Ultimately, when we focus on our own life experiences – falling back on our store of happy memories – nostalgia is a useful tool. It’s a way to harness the past internally to endure change – and create hope for the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77766/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Krystine Batcho does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are two types of nostalgia. One promotes resilience and personal growth, while the other can lead to an obsessive quest to escape the present.Krystine Batcho, Professor of Psychology, Le Moyne CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/684712016-12-01T01:55:50Z2016-12-01T01:55:50ZWhat cyber charter schools are and why their growth should worry us<p>What President-elect Donald Trump and the Republican sweep of government will mean for K-12 education priorities over the next four years is not entirely clear yet. However, <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/education">policy statements</a> and administration selections so far indicate “school choice” will top the agenda.</p>
<p>Betsy DeVos, Trump’s nominee for education secretary, has been known to be an advocate of <a href="http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/campaign-k-12/2016/11/betsy_devos_education_secretary_five_things_to_know.html">school choice initiatives</a>: DeVos has supported voucher programs that allow families to use taxpayer money to enroll in private and religious schools. She also promoted charter school legislation that offers students choices outside of traditional public schools. </p>
<p>Vice President-elect Mike Pence too has a history as governor of Indiana of promoting school choice policy. Indiana not only is ranked as having the most favorable policy provisions for charter schools by a <a href="http://www.publiccharters.org/get-the-facts/law-database/states/in/">prominent charter schooling advocacy group</a>, but it is among the 25 states employing a type of charter school unfamiliar to many folks across the United States: the cyber charter school.</p>
<p>Unlike the usual charter school, the cyber version is typically delivered to students online wherever they may live, so long as they are residents of the state in which the cyber charter school operates. Cyber charter schools have been growing in states that have school choice policy.</p>
<p>Our research, along with a body of academic work, suggests that the public should be concerned about an expansion of the cyber charter schooling model.</p>
<p>Here’s why.</p>
<h2>What is a cyber charter school?</h2>
<p>Charter schools are privately managed K-12 schools that utilize public money. The funds for charter schools are removed from regular public schooling budgets and paid to various private firms and organizations (and sometimes other parts of a state’s education system) to provide a wider choice of schools.</p>
<p>In the cyber version of the charter school, instruction is typically delivered to the students online wherever they may live, so long as they are residents of the state in which the cyber charter school operates. The <a href="http://www.tcrecord.org/content.asp?contentid=15986">model of these schools could vary</a> – some use a hybrid delivery model (online and in person), although most are entirely online. Students receive course material, lessons and tests on their computer at home (usually the computer is also provided with state funds). </p>
<p>As with traditional charter schools, the general idea behind cyber charter schools is to allow families and students to have a choice other than their local public school.</p>
<p>A 2015 annual report prepared by a consulting group that tracks online school practice and is often cited by scholars to describe cyber charter school enrollment shows that in 2014-2015 there were <a href="http://www.kpk12.com/wp-content/uploads/Evergreen_KeepingPace_2015.pdf">275,000 students in cyber charter</a> schools across 25 states. In some states, tens of thousands of students enroll in cyber charter schools. In Pennsylvania, for example, more than 36,000 students enrolled in cyber charter schools during 2014-2015. </p>
<h2>Where do the students come from?</h2>
<p>One of the goals of recent scholarship has been to understand who are the students who enroll in these schools and why do they do so. </p>
<p>The National Education Policy Center (NEPC) conducts an analysis of cyber charter school students every year. The most recent report shows that in 2013-2014, cyber charter schools, compared to the national average, <a href="http://nepc.colorado.edu/files/publications/RB-Miron%20Virtual%20Schools.pdf">had higher percentages</a> of white students and lower percentages of free and reduced lunch students. </p>
<p>However, since these numbers are nationally aggregated and not every state has a cyber charter school, we believe comparing national cyber charter school averages to all students nationally may be problematic. Our research at Penn State on cyber charter schools has examined enrollments within Pennsylvania and shows that the picture is more complicated.</p>
<p>In our study of enrollments in Pennsylvania, we found that the majority of students in cyber charter schools are indeed white, but they <a href="http://epx.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/09/25/0895904815604112.abstract">match the racial demographics</a> of the state. Similar results <a href="https://edex.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/publication/pdfs/%2808.02%29%20Enrollment%20and%20Achievement%20in%20Ohio%27s%20Virtual%20Charter%20Schools.pdf">have been seen in Ohio</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, in a another study in Pennsylvania we found that it was the economically disadvantaged students who were <a href="http://epubs.library.msstate.edu/index.php/ruraleducator/article/view/368">more likely</a> to enroll in a cyber charter school. </p>
<p>An obvious question to ask is whether parents would have homeschooled their children had the cyber charter school option not existed. The best estimate comes from an internal report of one of the largest national providers of cyber charter schools: The report found that a small percent – <a href="http://my.info.k12.com/rs/k12/images/K12%20Academic%20Report%20-%202013.pdf">13.6 percent of cyber school students in those schools</a> – were previously homeschooled.</p>
<p>So, what motivates a majority of parents to enroll their children in these schools? </p>
<p>Penn State researchers who interviewed parents who enrolled their children into cyber charter schools found that parents thought these schools were <a href="http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/846/art%253A10.1007%252Fs11528-009-0303-9.pdf?originUrl=http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Farticle%2F10.1007%2Fs11528-009-0303-9&token2=exp=1479154189%7Eacl=%2Fstatic%2Fpdf%2F846%2Fart%25253A10.1007%25252Fs11528-009-0303-9.pdf%3ForiginUrl%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Flink.springer.com%252Farticle%252F10.1007%252Fs11528-009-0303-9*%7Ehmac=549c62df4f5c1595bcae11e524a24dc3888dc71f12682d9ff8129125736864de">better customized</a> to their children’s needs, carried little financial risk and were possibly the last hope for their child to succeed in school. </p>
<h2>Concerns about cyber charters</h2>
<p>Despite the hope that many parents hold out for this new educational option, the performance of cyber charter schools has consistently, and often drastically, lagged behind the performance of their brick-and-mortar school counterparts. </p>
<p>Research about cyber charter school performance outcomes paints a dismal picture linked to test-based outcomes. For example, <a href="https://credo.stanford.edu/pdfs/OnlineCharterStudyFinal2015.pdf">a recent report</a> from the Center for Research on Education Outcomes (CREDO), a policy analysis center based in Stanford University, used a technique to match cyber students to an academic and demographic “twin.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148150/original/image-20161130-17000-1unr6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148150/original/image-20161130-17000-1unr6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148150/original/image-20161130-17000-1unr6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148150/original/image-20161130-17000-1unr6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148150/original/image-20161130-17000-1unr6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148150/original/image-20161130-17000-1unr6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148150/original/image-20161130-17000-1unr6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers have been concerned about the learning in cyber charter schools.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/wfryer/6578121699/in/photolist-qo984v-b2hApn-69ZT48-pd92Gn-69ZSZV-69ZT2v-6a53DG">Wesley Fryer</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They did this matching twice, once to compare individual gains of cyber charter students to their statistical twin in brick-and-mortar charter schools and once to compare them to their statistical twin in a brick-and-mortar district school.</p>
<p>Across all racial and poverty status groups of students in the study, the majority of cyber charter school students showed poor learning growth when compared to their matched twin. This was true in both math and reading when students were compared to charter and traditional students. </p>
<p>Researchers found these trends across almost all states that they studied: They found lower learning growth in reading in 14 out of the 17 states, and 17 out of 17 states in math. In their report they noted that improved academic outcomes for a student in a cyber charter school was <a href="https://credo.stanford.edu/pdfs/OnlineCharterStudyFinal2015.pdf">“the exception rather than the rule.”</a></p>
<p>This research is consistent with others that examine the academic outcomes of cyber charter schools. Studies have looked at cyber charter school outcomes in <a href="http://credo.stanford.edu/reports/PA%20State%20Report_20110404_FINAL.pdf">Pennsylvania</a> and in <a href="https://edex.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/publication/pdfs/%2808.02%29%20Enrollment%20and%20Achievement%20in%20Ohio%27s%20Virtual%20Charter%20Schools.pdf">Ohio</a>. These studies provide similar results about extremely lower learning growth in cyber charter schools in these state contexts when compared to other schools. </p>
<p>What is of further concern as one legal scholar, <a href="https://www.law.temple.edu/contact/susan-l-dejarnatt/">Susan DeJarnatt</a>, has shown is that cyber charter schools <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2370125">may not have all the safeguards</a> needed to protect the sector from fraud. Already federal authorities have indicted two of the five “mega-cyber” providers (a school that enrolls more than 2,000 students) in Pennsylvania of fraud.</p>
<p>Outside of the scholarship conducted about fraud in Pennsylvania, a review of hundreds of news stories <a href="http://www.edweek.org/ew/section/multimedia/cyber-charters-widespread-reports-of-trouble.html">revealed dozens of state audits across 20-plus states</a>. These news stories repeatedly and overwhelmingly raise concerns about funding and academic accountability across all state contexts, matching the concerns that have emerged in the academic literature.</p>
<h2>Looking forward</h2>
<p>Following such reports of poor academic outcomes and questionable ethical practices, our research team at Penn State has decided to continue to study the cyber charter school movement in Pennsylvania to find out more.</p>
<p>Our current research examines how cyber charter schools have influenced the entire education system in Pennsylvania. </p>
<p>However, based on the body of academic work that is currently available, we believe while it may be logical to allow online learning in certain circumstances, the cyber charter model is not the appropriate model. And the new education secretary Betsy DeVos might want to exercise caution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68471/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The study mentioned in this article, titled "Schooling in Cyberia: Analyzing the Contexts and Effects of Cyber Charter Schools and Online Learning in Pennsylvania Public Schools" received grant funding from Penn State's College of Education.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Baker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What Betsy DeVos, an advocate of school-choice initiatives and President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for education secretary, as well as the rest of us need to know about cyber charter schools.Bryan Mann, Ph.D. Candidate, Penn StateDavid Baker, Professor of Sociology, Education, Demography, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/692692016-11-24T20:13:34Z2016-11-24T20:13:34ZHere’s how undocumented students are able to enroll at American universities<p>President-elect <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/immigration">Donald Trump has vowed</a> to deport millions of undocumented people, beginning on his first day in office. In response, students and faculty from <a href="http://fusion.net/story/371117/undocumented-students-leading-fight-for-sanctuary-campuses/">100 campuses</a> around the United States have launched a campaign to demand that their universities become “sanctuaries” for undocumented students. </p>
<p>About <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/why-so-few-undocumented-immigrants-make-it-through-college-d07d30136e5#.dcuohfo9b">30,000 undocumented students</a> enroll in higher education each year. Of these, fewer than 2,000 will graduate. Many of these students face financial difficulties. In addition, they lack mentoring and support.</p>
<p>We are sociologists at the University of California, Merced and are currently working on a research project on undocumented students’ access to higher education. Our students and faculty too are demanding to be a “sanctuary campus.” </p>
<p>Many at this time also want to know how undocumented students are able to attend university if they do not have legal status.</p>
<p>There is a complex web of federal and state laws that both prevent and facilitate undocumented students’ access to higher education. In most states, students do not have to <a href="http://www.thenyic.org/node/3491">disclose</a> their immigration status or provide a <a href="http://www.collegeconfidential.com/dean/college-advice-for-undocumented-student/">Social Security number</a> when applying for university. </p>
<h2>Policies vary by state</h2>
<p>Immigration policy is under the purview of the federal government. States, however, can pass laws that make them more or less friendly to undocumented immigrants.</p>
<p>In 1975, the Texas Legislature <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/plyler-v-doe-public-education-immigrant-students">passed a law</a> that permitted school districts to deny undocumented children access to education. A group of students from Mexico challenged the case, and in 1982, the case reached the Supreme Court. </p>
<p>In a landmark judgment, <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/plyler-v-doe-public-education-immigrant-students">Plyler v. Doe</a>, the Supreme Court decided that the Equal Protections Clause requires local school districts to ensure that all children in the United States have access to K-12 education. Plyler v. Doe, however, does not apply to higher education. </p>
<p>In fact, when it comes to higher education, <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/immigration/tuition-benefits-for-immigrants.aspx">three states</a> explicitly bar undocumented students from enrolling in universities: Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. </p>
<p>Alabama and South Carolina bar undocumented students from all public institutions of higher education. Georgia bars undocumented students from enrolling in the five most selective public institutions.</p>
<p>Most states, however, have no policies with regard to access to higher education for undocumented students. This is made possible as there is <a href="https://professionals.collegeboard.org/guidance/financial-aid/undocumented-students">no federal law</a> that requires students to prove they are lawfully present to be admitted into a post-secondary institution in the U.S. Undocumented students <a href="http://www.thenyic.org/node/3491">do not have to disclose their status</a> and they do not have to provide a <a href="http://www.collegeconfidential.com/dean/college-advice-for-undocumented-student/">Social Security number</a> when applying.</p>
<p>In those states that have no official policies, undocumented students often must pay out-of-state or even steep international rates for public education. This makes access to higher education difficult.</p>
<h2>Providing financial support</h2>
<p>In contrast, there are <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/immigration/tuition-benefits-for-immigrants.aspx">20 states</a> that not only allow undocumented students to attend institutions of higher education, but also permit those students to pay in-state tuition. </p>
<p>The 20 states, subject to change, that have this policy are California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah and Washington. </p>
<p>In these 20 states, undocumented youth who graduate from high school within the state and meet other residency requirements – such as having graduated from high school within the state – are eligible to pay in-state tuition in the state’s public universities. The availability of in-state tuition facilitates access for undocumented college students by making it more affordable. </p>
<p>However, even though most undocumented students come from low-income families, they are not eligible for federally funded programs such as loans and Pell Grants. A Pell Grant is a <a href="https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/types/grants-scholarships/pell">federally subsidized grant</a> for low-income students that does not have to be repaid. The lack of federal grants and loans presents an important barrier to access to higher education for undocumented youth.</p>
<p>Currently, only five states offer financial aid to undocumented students: California, New Mexico, Texas, Minnesota and Washington. In the remaining states, undocumented youth have to fund their education themselves, or rely on a very limited supply of private scholarships. <a href="http://www.thedream.us/">TheDream.US</a>, a national scholarship fund, for example, provides highly competitive scholarships to undocumented students to attend <a href="https://mydocumentedlife.org/2016/11/15/the-dream-us-scholarships-open-to-undocumented-students-with-daca-or-tps/">university</a>.</p>
<h2>Private universities make their own decisions</h2>
<p>There are no laws that prevent undocumented students from attending private universities. These universities, however, tend to be even more costly than public universities, and are unaffordable for most undocumented youth.</p>
<p>Some private universities offer a small number of scholarships to undocumented students that enable them to access higher education, but the demand far outpaces <a href="http://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/lessons-local-level-dacas-implementation-and-impact-education-and-training-success">supply</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147242/original/image-20161123-19696-47fexs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147242/original/image-20161123-19696-47fexs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147242/original/image-20161123-19696-47fexs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147242/original/image-20161123-19696-47fexs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147242/original/image-20161123-19696-47fexs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147242/original/image-20161123-19696-47fexs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147242/original/image-20161123-19696-47fexs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Statue of John Harvard at Harvard University.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/davepeterson/2206731767/in/photolist-4n15tr-drFNfs-dtw3FT-cGrAkf-8WHHro-gwSCPz-bpDLL-oxpwLv-qtoM1D-zH62-hngc1g-JG94Y-nE85eK-9Xa1it-8ovzZM-95C7u6-kDMGp-az3XDL-8ovzVn-3EW6Qg-6ff4so-cyV8FG-5bmdB7-bnMc2n-4v2KzQ-cFi4aN-dc5Sbq-2kUKt3-a11dtq-48ziVT-PHa1e-fjMRxS-dCBHdo-JGfwt-5pYpAn-gmvDnx-4v2JLS-uqDZs-86ySzV-7XizTN-8Pmf8m-mVaikP-kDMGo-dHe2hs-777FW7-oa1r4G-4Jn8Ns-fEfuMB-2M3er-roBdJX">Dave Peterson1</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most selective universities in the country, such as Harvard, Princeton and Duke, offer <a href="http://getmetocollege.org/financial-aid/info-for-undocumented-students/school-policies-towards-undocumented-students">need-based scholarships</a> to all admitted students, including those who are undocumented. Here, the main obstacle is admission. The acceptance rate at Harvard, for example, is 6 percent. At Duke, it is <a href="http://colleges.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/best-colleges/rankings/lowest-acceptance-rate">12 percent</a>. Although there are no estimates of undocumented students in private universities, it is estimated that <a href="http://www.undocuscholars.org/assets/undocuscholarsreport2015.pdf">200,000 to 225,000</a> are enrolled in colleges nationally.</p>
<p>Other, less selective colleges do not offer full financial aid to all admitted students. For example, Bard College, which accepts one-third of all applicants, offers much more limited <a href="http://getmetocollege.org/financial-aid/info-for-undocumented-students/school-policies-towards-undocumented-students">financial aid</a> packages for undocumented students. At Bard College, similar to many other colleges, undocumented students must apply as international students. </p>
<p>Most private universities consider undocumented students to be international students, which often means they have to pay higher tuition than domestic students. A few, however, have changed their policies and now consider undocumented students to be domestic students, both in their <a href="https://mydocumentedlife.org/2016/09/14/colleges-that-accept-undocumented-students-as-domestic-students/">admission criteria</a> and financial aid policies.</p>
<h2>The case of California</h2>
<p>The state with the largest number of undocumented immigrants in the country is <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/09/20/overall-number-of-u-s-unauthorized-immigrants-holds-steady-since-2009/">California</a>. Nearly two and half million of the estimated <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/interactives/unauthorized-trends/">11 million</a> undocumented migrants in the United States live in California. The Golden State also has some of the most favorable policies toward them. </p>
<p>A series of immigration policy reforms in California known as the California Dream Act provides access to higher education for undocumented students. Governor Gray Davis signed <a href="http://ab540.com/What_Is_AB540_.html">AB 540</a> in 2001, a bill that granted undocumented students in-state tuition eligibility.</p>
<p>One decade later, Governor Jerry Brown signed Assembly Bills, <a href="http://www.laney.edu/wp/ab540/california-dream-act-ab-130-131/">AB 130 and AB 131</a>, which granted scholarships from nonstate or private funds and allowed eligible undocumented students to apply for state financial aid.</p>
<p>Without financial aid, and especially without access to in-state tuition, college attendance remains out of reach for most undocumented students. </p>
<p>Our research group recently interviewed 35 undocumented students at the University of California in Merced and found that the annual household income was less than US$25,000 for 22 of the 35 students. </p>
<p>In-state tuition at UC Merced is over $13,000. In addition to tuition, students must also cover their living expenses, supplies and books. The total cost of attendance at UC Merced for a student who lives at home is estimated at <a href="http://financialaid.ucmerced.edu/cost-attendance">$25,825</a>, more than what most of these families earn in a year. </p>
<p>It is clear their parents would not be able to afford to pay tuition, much less to pay room, board, books and other costs associated with college attendance. Even with state financial aid, students struggle to get by. </p>
<h2>What can change under Trump</h2>
<p>On June 15, 2012, President Obama created a new policy for children of immigrant parents, known as the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (<a href="https://www.uscis.gov/humanitarian/consideration-deferred-action-childhood-arrivals-daca">DACA</a>). This policy temporarily protects undocumented youth from deportation, and provides them with a Social Security number and a work permit.</p>
<p>To qualify, undocumented immigrants must have been under the age of 31 on or before June 15, 2012; have arrived in the United States before the age of sixteen; and be currently enrolled either in school or in the armed forces or already have completed high school. DACA does not provide any additional benefits when applying to college. </p>
<p>DACA does allow many undocumented college students to supplement their parents’ meager income by getting part-time employment. </p>
<p>President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/immigration">rescind</a> all of President Obama’s executive orders. If this happens, youths who currently have DACA would eventually lose their work permits as well as access to employment in the formal economy. DACA has had a <a href="http://immigrationimpact.com/2015/06/15/3-years-in-its-increasingly-clear-that-daca-benefits-all-of-us/">noticeably positive impact</a> on its beneficiaries. It has opened up better economic opportunities and allowed recipients to obtain driver’s licenses, and even open their first bank accounts. </p>
<p>A repeal of DACA would also negatively affect undocumented youths’ access to university as it would affect their ability to work and thus afford university.</p>
<p>However, as president, Trump would not be able to directly change state laws governing access to higher education. Those laws were passed by state legislatures and could only be overturned by the state legislatures themselves or by the Supreme Court, if they were determined to be unconstitutional. </p>
<p>In Kansas, for example, the in-state tuition law has come under attack nearly every year <a href="http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article1111646.html">since the law passed in 2004</a>. However, these attacks have been unsuccessful at repealing the law.</p>
<p>As president, Trump could threaten to take away federal aid from states or even from universities that allow undocumented students. However, as the sanctuary movement builds, and as more and more campuses sign on, there would be, we believe, strong resistance to any efforts to restrict access to higher education for undocumented youth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69269/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Twenty states not only accept undocumented students in higher education institutions, but also provide them with financial support.Tanya Golash-Boza, Professor, University of California, MercedBenigno Merlin, Ph.D. Student, University of California, MercedLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/686432016-11-16T01:18:19Z2016-11-16T01:18:19ZWhy a fractured nation needs to remember King’s message of love<p>The 2016 election campaign was arguably the most <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/2016-elections-nastiest-presidential-election-since-1972-213644">divisive</a> in a generation. And even after Donald Trump’s victory, people are struggling to understand what his presidency will mean for the country. This is especially true for many <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-attacks-idUSKBN1352NO">minority groups</a> who were singled out during the election campaign and have since experienced discrimination and threats of violence.</p>
<p>Yet, as geography teaches us, this is not the first time America has faced such a crisis – this divisiveness has a much longer history. I study the civil rights movement and the field of peace geographies. We faced similar crises related to the broader civil rights struggles in the 1960s. </p>
<p>So, what can we draw from the past that is relevant to the present? Specifically, how can we heal a nation that is divided along race, class and political lines? </p>
<p>As outlined by Martin Luther King Jr., the role of love, in engaging individuals and communities in conflict, is crucial today. By recalling King’s vision, I believe, we can have opportunities to build a more inclusive and just community that does not retreat from diversity but draws strength from it. </p>
<h2>King’s vision</h2>
<p>King spent his public career working toward ending segregation and fighting racial discrimination. For many people the pinnacle of this work occurred in Washington, D.C. when he delivered his famous “<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/17/i-have-a-dream-speech-text_n_809993.html">I have a dream” speech</a>. </p>
<p>Less well-known and often ignored is his later work on ending poverty and his fight on behalf of <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=91626373">poor people</a>. In fact, when King was assassinated in Memphis he was in the midst of building toward a national march on Washington, D.C. that would have brought tens of thousands of economically disenfranchised people to advocate for policies that would ameliorate poverty. This effort – known as the <a href="http://epn.sagepub.com/content/45/9/2120.short">“Poor People’s Campaign</a>” – aimed to dramatically shift national priorities to the health and welfare of working peoples. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146099/original/image-20161115-31120-1xxk12i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146099/original/image-20161115-31120-1xxk12i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146099/original/image-20161115-31120-1xxk12i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146099/original/image-20161115-31120-1xxk12i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146099/original/image-20161115-31120-1xxk12i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146099/original/image-20161115-31120-1xxk12i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146099/original/image-20161115-31120-1xxk12i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Martin Luther King Jr. speaking at interfaith civil rights rally, San Francisco Cow Palace, June 30, 1964.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">George Conklin</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Scholars such as <a href="https://geography.utk.edu/about-us/faculty/dr-derek-alderman/">Derek Alderman</a>, <a href="https://www.sfu.ca/geography/people/profiles/paul-kingsbury.html">Paul Kingsbury</a> and <a href="http://liberalarts.iupui.edu/directory/bio/odwyer">Owen Dwyer</a> have emphasized King’s work on behalf of civil rights in a 21st-century <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00330124.2012.658728">context</a>. They argue the civil rights movement in general, and King’s work specifically, holds lessons for social justice organizing and classroom pedagogy in that it helps students and the broader public see how the struggle for civil rights continues. </p>
<p>These arguments build on sociologist <a href="http://www.michaelericdyson.com/april41968/">Michael Eric Dyson,</a> who also argues we need to reevaluate King’s work as it reveals the possibility to build a 21st-century social movement that can address continued inequality and poverty through direct action and social protest. </p>
<h2>Idea of love</h2>
<p>King focused on the role of love as key to building healthy communities and the ways in which love can and should be at the center of our social interactions. </p>
<p>King’s final book, <a href="http://www.thekinglegacy.org/books/where-do-we-go-here-chaos-or-community">“Where Do We Go From Here: Chaos or Community?</a>,” published in the year before his assassination, provides us with his most expansive vision of an inclusive, diverse and economically equitable U.S. nation. For King, love is a key part of creating communities that work for everyone and not just the few at the expense of the many. </p>
<p>Love was not a mushy or easily dismissed emotion, but was central to the kind of community he envisioned. King made distinctions between three forms of love which are key to the human experience. </p>
<p>The three forms of love are “Eros,” “Philia” and most importantly “Agape.” For King, Eros is a form of love that is most closely associated with desire, while Philia is often the love that is experienced between very good friends or family. These visions are different from Agape. </p>
<p>Agape, which was at the center of the movement he was building, was the moral imperative to engage with one’s oppressor in a way that showed the oppressor the ways their actions dehumanize and detract from society. He said, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“In speaking of love we are not referring to some sentimental emotion. It would be nonsense to urge men to love their oppressors in an affectionate sense[…] When we speak of loving those who oppose us we speak of a love which is expressed in the Greek word Agape. Agape means nothing sentimental or affectionate; it means understanding, redeeming goodwill for all [sic] men, an overflowing love which seeks nothing in return. ” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>King further defined agape when he argued at the University of California at Berkeley that the concept of agape “stands at the center of the movement we are to carry on in the Southland.” It was a love that demanded that one stand up for oneself and tells those who oppress that what they were doing was wrong. </p>
<h2>Why this matters now</h2>
<p>In the face of violence directed at minority communities and in a deepening political divisions in the country, King’s words and philosophy are perhaps more critical for us today than at any point in the recent past. </p>
<p>As King noted, all persons exist in an interrelated community and all are dependent on each other. By connecting love to community, King argued there were opportunities to build a more just and economically sustainable society which respected difference. As he said, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Agape is a willingness to go to any length to restore community… Therefore if I respond to hate with a reciprocal hate I do nothing but intensify the cleavages of a broken community.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>King outlined a vision in which we are compelled to work toward making our communities inclusive. They reflect the broad values of equality and democracy. Through an engagement with one another as its foundation, agape provides opportunities to work toward common goals. </p>
<h2>Building a community today</h2>
<p>At a time when the nation feels so divided, there is a need to bring back King’s vision of agape-fueled community building. It would move us past simply seeing the other side as being wholly motivated by hate. The reality is that economic changes since the Great Recession have wrought tremendous pain and suffering in many quarters of the United States. Many Trump supporters were motivated by a desperate need to change the system. </p>
<p>However, simply dismissing the concerns voiced by many that Trump’s election has empowered <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2016/11/14/white-nationalists-rejoice-trumps-appointment-breitbarts-stephen-bannon">racists</a> and misogynists would be wrong as well.</p>
<p>These cleavages that we see will most likely intensify as Donald Trump prepares to take the oath of office as the 45th president of the United States. </p>
<p>To bridge these divisions is to begin a difficult conversation about where we are as a nation and where we want to go. Engaging in a conversation through agape signals a willingness to restore broken communities and to approach difference with an open mind.</p>
<p>It also exposes and rejects those that are using race and racism and fears of the “other” to advance a political agenda that intensifies the divisions in our nation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua F.J. Inwood does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Martin Luther King Jr.’s vision of love was not sentimental. It demanded that individuals tell their oppressors what they were doing was wrong. How can this vision help with community-building today?Joshua F.J. Inwood, Associate Professor of Geography Senior Research Associate in the Rock Ethics Institute, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/684602016-11-16T01:18:03Z2016-11-16T01:18:03ZTrump may dismantle the EPA Clean Power Plan but its targets look resilient<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145604/original/image-20161112-9093-fh351a.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many changes in electricity generation are already en route, regardless of regulations. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/sky-sunset-sun-twilight-46169/">pixabay.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2015, the Obama administration finalized the EPA Clean Power Plan (CPP), which aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity sector in 2030 <a href="https://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan/fact-sheet-overview-clean-power-plan">by 32 percent compared with 2005 levels</a>. The CPP was a major component of the <a href="http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/03/240007.htm">U.S. pledge</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as part of the global 2016 Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>Following the election of Donald Trump, the future of both the CPP and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-could-the-rest-of-the-world-do-if-trump-pulls-the-us-out-of-the-paris-agreement-on-climate-change-68706">Paris Agreement</a> is <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-president-trump-means-for-the-future-of-energy-and-climate-68045">highly uncertain</a>. One indication of the new administration’s views on the CPP is that Trump has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/12/science/myron-ebell-trump-epa.html?_r=0">tapped</a> historian and self-proclaimed climate skeptic Myron Ebell to lead the EPA transition team. During the campaign, Trump also advocated for <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/an-america-first-energy-plan">canceling the U.S. contribution to the Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>Tied up in the courts, the CPP has not yet come into force. But even though its future is at risk, one thing is clear: Market forces are already largely achieving the CO2 emissions cuts targeted with the regulation.</p>
<h2>We’re already underway</h2>
<p>The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that 2015 CO2 emissions in the electricity sector were <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26232">21 percent lower</a> than 2005 levels – about two-thirds toward the CPP goal. This is without any national CPP implementation outside of expectations of future enforcement and with <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/7?agg=0,1&geo=g&endsec=vg&linechart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A%7EELEC.PRICE.US-RES.A%7EELEC.PRICE.US-COM.A%7EELEC.PRICE.US-IND.A&columnchart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A%7EELEC.PRICE.US-RES.A%7EELEC.PRICE.US-COM.A%7EELEC.PRICE.US-IND.A&map=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A&freq=A&start=2001&end=2015&ctype=linechart&ltype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0">little effect on real electricity retail prices</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145596/original/image-20161112-9065-r2c4ye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145596/original/image-20161112-9065-r2c4ye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145596/original/image-20161112-9065-r2c4ye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145596/original/image-20161112-9065-r2c4ye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145596/original/image-20161112-9065-r2c4ye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145596/original/image-20161112-9065-r2c4ye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145596/original/image-20161112-9065-r2c4ye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EIA data, Jeffrey C. Peters.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>CO2 emissions in the U.S. have fallen in large part because cleaner fuels are being used to generate power. Natural gas produces roughly half of the emissions as coal power, while several renewable technologies – notably, solar and wind – produce little or no emissions in generation.</p>
<p>The reduction in coal generation, and thus CO2 emissions, is due to three main trends: inexpensive natural gas following the shale boom, growth in renewable technologies and decreasing overall electricity demand. These trends all suggest that the recent fall in electricity sector emissions may not only be resilient to federal policy (or lack thereof) but may even continue to fall throughout the new administration.</p>
<h2>Battle between gas and coal</h2>
<p>The drilling technique known as fracking kicked off a <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-tale-of-two-oil-and-gas-boomtowns-a-boost-to-the-economy-a-tricky-landing-59502">natural gas production boom</a> around 2008. The price of gas dropped significantly and has remained low since, which has had a direct impact on electricity production as power plant operators shift to natural gas because it’s cheaper. Gas is likely to surpass coal’s market share as a fuel for power generation this year. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=2952">A recent study</a> I coauthored shows that inexpensive gas is having a one-two punch on coal power. First, gas is cheaper, so existing gas plants are being used more often throughout the year than coal plants. Second, as these natural gas plants are used more often, they earn their owners more money, <a href="http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_6_05">further favoring them over coal</a>. </p>
<p>These two factors are primarily responsible for coal’s decline despite the “war on coal” political rhetoric. Because gas power produces roughly half the CO2 emissions compared to coal power, our study suggests that if gas prices remain low, gas will continue to displace coal beyond 2030, and the 32 percent reduction targeted by the CPP may be met regardless of implementation. </p>
<p>Will natural gas continue to be cheap in the years ahead? That’s appearing to be more and more likely for a couple reasons. </p>
<p>First, the <a href="http://fuelfix.com/blog/2016/03/24/heres-what-it-costs-to-drill-a-shale-well-these-days/">cost</a> and <a href="http://triblive.com/business/headlines/7890833-74/wells-drilling-range">time</a> to start new wells for fracking are declining to the order of days, compared with years for conventional drilling methods. This means natural gas producers can supply gas to the market quickly, suggesting that it’s unlikely that a scarcity of gas will drive up prices. Second, threats against fracking, such as moratoriums or increased regulation, do not appear to be major barriers to expanded production under the new administration.</p>
<p>But dramatically expanding natural gas use for power has a downside from an emissions point of view. While cheap gas can help drive CO2 emissions to the CPP’s original target, the newly constructed gas plants, which have <a href="http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/64654.pdf">technological lifetimes of 40-60</a> years, may prevent deeper emissions from lower emitting technologies, such as wind and solar, in the future. </p>
<h2>Renewables are increasingly competitive</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145603/original/image-20161112-9048-1oh6cg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145603/original/image-20161112-9048-1oh6cg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145603/original/image-20161112-9048-1oh6cg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145603/original/image-20161112-9048-1oh6cg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145603/original/image-20161112-9048-1oh6cg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145603/original/image-20161112-9048-1oh6cg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145603/original/image-20161112-9048-1oh6cg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Both wind and solar technologies are becoming simultaneously cheaper and more prevalent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">J.P. Morgan, Eye on the Market Annual Report 2015</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In contrast to the longstanding technology of burning fossil fuel to generate power, wind, solar and batteries are simultaneously becoming <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2015/11/13/investments-renewable-energy-are-paying-and-paving-way-ambitious-climate-action">more efficient and cheaper very quickly</a>. While these new technologies have a relatively small current market share, their adoption is increasing at a rapid clip. </p>
<p>Part of this growth has been helped by federal investment and production tax credits, but wind and solar are less and less reliant on these subsidies. Even if the new administration and Congress elect to remove or reduce these tax credits, it is not likely to reduce the momentum too much. Clean energy investment worldwide <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/wind-and-solar-are-crushing-fossil-fuels">attracts twice the global funding as fossil fuels</a> and has maintained this share despite the low-cost-of-oil environment. Economies of scales of existing technologies and continued rapid advance will make these low-emitting sources even more competitive. </p>
<h2>Electricity demand seems to be slowing</h2>
<p>Electricity demand has slowed in recent years. Part of the appearance of slow growth can be attributed to the Great Recession (energy demand is highly correlated with GDP), but <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=10491">this relationship is weakening</a> because of efficiency. There have been large gains in energy efficiency in both <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=14291">commercial buildings</a> and <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=6570">households</a>, which lowers demand for power.</p>
<p>Slow electricity growth directly translates to slower growth in emissions, but it also means there is less room for new power generation capacity. If the new administration really does try to reverse the decline of coal generation, any new coal capacity will be competing in a smaller total market for power. </p>
<p>What’s more, coal plants are competing with natural gas plants, which can operate more flexibly and at higher utilization rates than coal plants, as well as with the rapidly declining costs of renewables. All this means that any significant comeback for coal will be difficult because of economic forces alone.</p>
<h2>Deeper cuts may be compromised</h2>
<p>What may be of concern to environmentalists is that the original 32 percent reduction goal of the CPP will likely consist of a gas-heavy future. Adding more natural gas plants, instead of expanding wind and solar, might lock in CO2-emitting gas assets and prevent deeper reductions in the future. </p>
<p>However, one presidential term with slow electricity demand growth might limit the penetration of gas. Furthermore, natural gas plants could help renewables: Because their power production can be ramped up and down relatively easily, they could complement intermittent renewables and help wind and solar penetrate more seamlessly in the near- to midterm.</p>
<h2>The real ‘war on coal’</h2>
<p>When it comes to reducing emissions (and other pollutants that cause haze and smog), removing coal is top concern. </p>
<p>While Trump campaigned with hopes of reigniting the coal industry by stopping the “war on coal,” it does not appear likely in the face of the multi-flank assault by inexpensive gas, increasingly efficient and inexpensive renewables, and end-use efficiency. All these trends are largely outside the ability and interest of the commander-in-chief – even if climate change mitigation is not a primary concern.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68460/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey C. Peters does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ‘war on coal’ is not really a result of onerous regulations but a combination of market forces over which a Trump administration has limited control.Jeffrey C. Peters, Postdoctoral Fellow in Studying Complex Systems, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/686442016-11-15T02:54:14Z2016-11-15T02:54:14ZWhy there is no healing without grief<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145869/original/image-20161114-5078-1xxwd00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Accepting grief is important for moving toward hope.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/shanonwise/3699142484/in/photolist-6CT5bG-oPFZKf-4PRTFr-4PRTMg-84L5H-dZGgPR-vXodP-49SnV-49KE7-vtgd-8fEBdd-jzXtU-atFeja-vtg9-49R7Q-6gTPGF-84L5j-bm1rrw-49Poz-oE4diz-49PoB-e2dGaY-m58UPK-8MLkSW-cxv5bb-6BvsQH-oE3iyZ-dZMX8q-dQmJ3A-6oar75-63VrdU-qoxbKE-aqXkm6-dZGfYZ-76MnCm-63MUCK-dQg81X-oWgFgX-m58JUd-ijH71N-aftAva-6uS9GK-c3YNPG-pBL99R-av95L-axnM4R-9T5N7q-e2dHVw-dwJn3x-9DpweH">Shanon Wise</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For many women, people of color, LGBTQ people, Muslims and immigrants, the victory of Donald Trump seems to have endorsed discrimination against them. Acts of hatred against minorities are surfacing even more brazenly. </p>
<p>College campuses are reporting increasing numbers of incidents of <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2016/11/14/protests-and-incidents-spread-following-trump-election-victory">election-related harassment and intimidation</a>. Three days after the election, I saw a “Black Lives Matter” banner on a church wall in Denver splattered with bright red paint.</p>
<p>Many of us feel tremendous grief over what appears to be the end of a certain idea of American democracy. Amidst such pain and loss, many are also desperate for healing. Politicians on all sides are declaring, as <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-election-night-party-time-america-bind-wounds/story?id=43408896">Trump himself did on Nov. 9</a>, that “it is time for America to bind the wounds of division.” </p>
<p>The desire to begin healing is certainly understandable. But before we can even begin to hope for healing, we need to grieve. As a scholar and teacher, I explore the many fascinating ways in which biblical images, words and even the idea of the Bible help people make meaning in their lives. </p>
<p>To be sure, there is a lot in the Bible about healing. But there is at least as much about grieving. The biblical tradition emphasizes the importance of grieving before moving toward healing. </p>
<p>To grieve is to embrace the reality of pain and loss.</p>
<h2>The wounds are real</h2>
<p>For many, following the elections, faith in the idea of American democracy has died. Cultural historian <a href="http://billmoyers.com/story/farewell-america/">Neil Gabler’s “Farewell, America,”</a> published two days after the election, expresses powerfully this sense of the end of faith in America: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“America died on Nov. 8, 2016, not with a bang or a whimper, but at its own hand via electoral suicide…Whatever place we now live in is not the same place it was on Nov. 7. No matter how the rest of the world looked at us on Nov. 7, they will now look at us differently.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Indeed, irrespective of who got elected, the presidential race itself exposed mortal wounds on our body politic. We are not who we thought we were. </p>
<p>As the way to healing, pastors and religious leaders, including <a href="http://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2016/november/anne-graham-lotz-on-how-the-church-can-help-the-nation-heal">Anne Graham Lotz</a>, daughter of evangelists <a href="https://billygraham.org/gallery/billy-and-ruth-graham-through-the-years/">Billy and Ruth Graham</a>, are calling for prayer and repentance: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“When God’s people will pray with a humble heart, repenting of our sins, then God promises He will hear our prayer; He will forgive our sin and the third element is that He will heal our land.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>What do our traditions tell us?</h2>
<p>Healing is not possible without grieving. The biblical tradition offers an invitation to sit with sadness before reaching for hope and healing. It does not simply allow for grief – it privileges it.</p>
<p>It dwells uncomfortably long in the valleys of loss and despair, refusing to ascend too quickly onto horizons of hope. </p>
<p>The Hebrew Scriptures, in fact, possess a rich vocabulary of grief. Behind the words “grief” and “grieve,” as I found in my research, there are 13 different Hebrew words with connotations ranging from physical injury, to sickness, to mourning, to rage, to agitation, to sighing, to tottering unsteadily to and fro. The most common expressions involve a mix of emotional and physical pain in the face of loss. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145871/original/image-20161114-5078-uf5vwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145871/original/image-20161114-5078-uf5vwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145871/original/image-20161114-5078-uf5vwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145871/original/image-20161114-5078-uf5vwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145871/original/image-20161114-5078-uf5vwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145871/original/image-20161114-5078-uf5vwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145871/original/image-20161114-5078-uf5vwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Angel of Grief monument in the Hill family plot in Glenwood Cemetery in Houston, Texas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mwschaff/8739307295/in/photolist-ejgezZ-dXot6V-dXu8hN-8owpfc-dcPkht-dXotVn-nF4Hou-a6FKNC-68Soy6-AMkc9-7FhTGT-wQHLC-dXu6G5-64QzXd-AMkeX-C3m17-3X9rSs-6Y2Ezf-ejmXEy-e11914-nH5FCj-kQRdQA-6ZPtyg-nyhwxx-ey7R1-m4XqFj-nh5Yv3-aCSRw9-3oWyhr-4jszYm-81AVtq-kJ41zk-6XXE8V-7HF8oh-4BLsCY-w1ycT-9HvcnE-arLAs5-j3qkc-dcPneQ-24R2b-5pqXgk-697rbg-8K5VSe-pKzuaU-dfpncm-dyb7Rn-HtxDU-9tcnUa-ppkTJh">Mike Schaffner</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This privileging of grief over and before any hope of healing is powerfully expressed in the words of the Hebrew biblical prophets. As theologian Walter Brueggemann shows in his book <a href="http://www.eerdmans.com/Products/7072/reality-grief-hope.aspx">“Reality, Grief, Hope</a>,” the biblical prophets were not, as we often assume, predictors of the future.</p>
<p>Rather they were poets who, like poets today, offered alternative ways of seeing things – that is, to the way the empire (in their case ancient Israel or Judah) wanted people to see things. The prophet confronted ancient Israel’s imperial ideology of special blessing and national exceptionalism with the <a href="http://bible.oremus.org/?ql=346171951">realities of exploitation</a> and violence upon which its prosperity was gotten. </p>
<p>Addressing an audience that was in total denial that there were any serious problems in their society, the prophet gave voice to the realities of injustice, and grieved the pain and loss that was the result. They confronted the people’s denial with grief. </p>
<h2>The prophetic imagination</h2>
<p>Consider <a href="http://bible.oremus.org/?ql=345988108">these words</a> from the prophet Amos, who addressed the prosperous of northern Israel during the eighth century B.C.:</p>
<blockquote>
<pre class="highlight plaintext"><code> Alas for those who are at ease in Zion,
and for those who feel secure on Mount Samaria,
the notables of the first of the nations ...
Alas for those who lie on beds of ivory,
and lounge on their couches ...
but are not grieved over the ruin of Joseph!
Therefore they shall now be the first to go into exile,
and the revelry of the loungers shall pass away.
</code></pre></blockquote>
<p>Simultaneously pronouncing judgment for their exploitation of the poor and grief over their imminent downfall, the prophet cries out in horror for those who recline in denial of their ill-gotten prosperity and “are not grieved” (from the Hebrew word “chalah,” “made sick”) at the ruin all around.</p>
<p>Though they are guilty, Amos nonetheless laments that they “shall now be the first to go into exile” as a result. The prophet pronounces judgment from the inside, inviting “us” to look at ourselves, to stare at the wounds, to live into the pain, not as a path to healing but as reality in and of itself.</p>
<p>The crux of this “prophetic imagination” is grief. Then, and only then, is it even possible for the prophet to confront the despair of the empire in ruins with hope for the possibility of healing and restoration. </p>
<h2>Grief as activism</h2>
<p>I am sympathetic with those who feel driven to do something, indeed to resist despair and renew the struggle for justice. As the black feminist lawyer <a href="http://www.msmagazine.com/summer2011/verbalkarate.asp">Florynce Kennedy</a> famously said, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Don’t agonize. Organize.”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145856/original/image-20161114-5084-116q3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145856/original/image-20161114-5084-116q3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145856/original/image-20161114-5084-116q3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145856/original/image-20161114-5084-116q3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145856/original/image-20161114-5084-116q3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145856/original/image-20161114-5084-116q3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145856/original/image-20161114-5084-116q3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A ‘Black Lives Matter’ banner on a church wall in Denver splattered with bright red paint.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timothy Beal</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But what if grief is a kind of activism? What if one of the most subversive acts right now is to give voice to our grief? To refuse to “move on”? Such grief denies denial its power to look away in desperate pursuit of healing. Just as there is no peace without justice, there is no healing without grief.</p>
<p>The day of Donald Trump’s election was also the anniversary of both <a href="https://www.ushmm.org/wlc/en/article.php?ModuleId=10005201">Kristallnacht</a> – the pogrom in 1938, when Nazi soldiers and German citizens attacked and killed many Jews and destroyed Jewish businesses, schools, and hospitals – and the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/places/berlin_wall">fall of the Berlin Wall</a> in 1989. </p>
<p>This coincidence reminds us that we together have the capacity for both atrocious horror and miraculous liberation. Even now. The difference may lie as much in how we grieve as in how we heal.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Beal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After Donald Trump’s victory, a scholar says the biblical prophets can help show us the way forward: Just as there is no peace without justice, there is no healing without grief.Timothy Beal, Professor of Religion and Chair of the Department of Religious Studies, Case Western Reserve UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.