tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/transport-research-6150/articlestransport research – The Conversation2018-10-05T11:15:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1043652018-10-05T11:15:40Z2018-10-05T11:15:40ZIncreasing the speed limit won’t get traffic moving faster<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239475/original/file-20181005-72113-196ar9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/en/traffic-highway-lights-night-road-332857/">Pixabay</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK should raise its motorway speed limit for cars and vans to 80mph as a way of <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/30/increase-motorway-speed-limit-80mph-drive-britains-productivity/">increasing national productivity</a>, a government minister recently suggested. It’s a perennial political idea that has already <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global/2013/jun/22/speed-limit-uk-motorway-80">been proposed and then ruled out</a> by the government at least once in the past decade. Despite claims that the current 70mph limit is embedded in the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/07/80mph-motorway-speed-limit-possible-public-opinion-prevents/">national psyche</a>, 48% of car drivers choose <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/743878/vehicle-speed-compliance-statistics-2017.pdf">not to comply with it</a>.</p>
<p>But, aside from the question of whether being able to get to meetings faster would really impact national productivity, would raising the motorway speed limit even make that much of a different to journey times?</p>
<p>The main problem with this idea is that <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/684314/travel-time-measures-on-srn-and-local-a-roads-jan-to-dec-2017.pdf">persistent congestion</a> often prevents people from travelling at the existing speed limit. A former chief executive of the Highways Agency suggested we should even expect peak time motorway speeds <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/10825851/Motorway-speeds-Get-used-to-driving-at-40mph-says-top-highways-official.html">as low as 40mph</a> on some routes. Another problem is phantom traffic jams, which usually occur when drivers are travelling too fast in comparison to the traffic around them. If one driver rapidly brakes, the driver behind them will have to do the same and so on until a whole line of traffic is forced to stop. </p>
<p>The way the UK has primarily tried to tackle the issue of congestion in recent years is not by building more roads but by introducing so-called <a href="https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/driving-advice/smart-motorways/">smart motorways</a>. These use electronic signs to change the speed limit depending on the flow of traffic. Ironically, by keeping drivers travelling slower, smart motorways can help prevent phantom traffic jams and ensure <a href="https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/413955/">everyone gets to their destination faster</a>. </p>
<p>This technology can also be used to allow even higher speeds when there are fewer cars on a road. In the Netherlands, smart motorways have been introduced in combination with an <a href="https://www.government.nl/topics/mobility-public-transport-and-road-safety/mobility/maximum-speed">increase in the motorway speed limit</a> from 120km/h (75mph) to 130km/h (81mph). But drivers travelling during peak times tend not to benefit from the higher limit because congestion causes the smart motorway to reduce the speeds, so any potential productivity boost is limited.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Smart motorways can reduce the speed limit to manage congestion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/5251763">Bill Boaden</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One argument for increasing the speed limit is that it – and most roads – were designed for a different generation of vehicles. Every road has a design speed, defined as the rate at which 85% of drivers choose to travel in free flow conditions. Design speeds in current <a href="http://www.standardsforhighways.co.uk/ha/standards/dmrb/vol6/section1/td993.pdf">UK standards</a> range from 50km/h (31mph) to 120km/h (75mph) depending on the type of road. A road’s design speed isn’t necessarily the same thing as the legal speed limit.</p>
<p>The road is then built to ensure that it can be used safely at this design speed. This includes ensuring curves aren’t so sharp that vehicles slide off the road, and that drivers can see far enough ahead to stop safely in an emergency. This means any vehicles that go faster than the design speed are at a higher risk of collision.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/motorways-if-80mph-is-a-safe-speed-why-isnt-it-made-legal-rmlztdk37q2">Many argue</a> that these design parameters are based on historical designs and that modern vehicles have more effective brakes and handling. If this is true, it would mean existing road design standards are conservative and the risks of driving faster than the design speed have been reduced. A wide-ranging <a href="https://www.highwaysmagazine.co.uk/article/detail/3411">review of the standards</a>, including a look at changes to vehicle design, is to be completed by 2020 and may lead to updates in the way roads are built.</p>
<p>But even if today’s vehicles can safely drive faster than our roads’ design speed, <a href="https://www.rospa.com/rospaweb/docs/advice-services/road-safety/road-crashes-overview.pdf">95% of all road crashes have human error as a factor</a>. Most of us are simply not the good drivers we think we are. The recent launch of a national campaign highlighting the failure of drivers on England’s roads to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-45545525">keep a safe distance</a> illustrates this point only too well. Higher speeds gives us less time to respond and react to a critical situation. </p>
<p>As such, it’s perhaps unsurprising that a <a href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/speed-crash-risk">recent OECD study</a> across ten countries has found that increasing road speed, including on motorways, consistently leads to a disproportionate increase in the number and severity of crashes. And more crashes leads to more congestion and longer journey times.</p>
<h2>Best case scenario</h2>
<p>But putting all this aside and assuming you were able to continuously drive safely on the motorway at the speed limit, how much time would a 10mph increase typically save you? Despite carrying large volumes of traffic in a relatively safe manner when compared with other routes, motorways comprise just a small proportion of the UK road network. The start and end of any trip tend to be on local roads in urban areas, inevitably forming the slowest part of any journey, and this would not benefit from the change in the speed limit.</p>
<p><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/448276/strategic-road-network-statistics.pdf">Government statistics</a> show that 88% of trips on motorways are less than 50 miles in length. Assuming it were possible to drive continuously at 80mph instead of 70mph, the time saving on such a journey would be only five minutes at the very most.</p>
<p>So all things considered, on a good day, increasing the motorway speed limit would save the majority of motorists just enough time to make a cup of tea. Whether drinking tea will boost national productivity is a matter for an entirely separate debate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Llewellyn has received funding from Transport Scotland in previous research work. He is affiliated with the Chartered Institution of Highways and Transportation.</span></em></p>UK government minister Liz Truss says upping the motorway speed limit will increase productivity. Let’s look at the facts.Richard Llewellyn, Lecturer in Transportation Engineering, Edinburgh Napier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/853782017-10-09T19:09:04Z2017-10-09T19:09:04ZCompetitive tendering hasn’t delivered for public transport, so why reward poor performance?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189323/original/file-20171009-6971-l9oxjx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The government appears willing to roll over the contract with the operator of a third of Melbourne's buses despite poor performance.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bus Association Victoria, used with permission</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Transdev, which operates about one-third of Melbourne’s buses, recently had 33 buses taken off the road <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/east/more-than-30-of-melbournes-transdev-buses-ordered-off-the-road-after-failing-roadworthy-checks/news-story/321d717549650a5f1acf01d005f00b67">due to safety defects</a>. </p>
<p>Transport Safety Victoria’s action coincides with a review of a three-year rollover of the French company’s <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/billiondollar-public-bus-contracts-not-value-for-money-auditorgeneral-20150506-ggvcvz.html">A$1.7 billion contract</a>. The contract was <a href="https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/about-ptv/media-centre/media-releases/preferred-tenderer-announced-for-the-melbourne-metropolitan-bus-franchise/">announced in 2013</a> following competitive tendering.</p>
<p>This confluence of events raises at least two questions about contracting for transport services. Australian state governments should reflect on whether competitive tendering necessarily delivers the best outcomes for the public, and on the role of operator performance in contract renewal. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-touted-public-transport-savings-from-competitive-tendering-are-too-high-78527">Why touted public transport savings from competitive tendering are too high</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Does competitive tendering deliver?</h2>
<p>For private bus operations, the challenge for government is to achieve a contractual arrangement that delivers three things: a quality service for users, a fair price to government, and a viable business for the private operator. </p>
<p>A comprehensive <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856408001031">2008 review</a> found no substantive empirical evidence to support competitive tendering as a superior method of contracting route bus services compared to a performance-based arrangement negotiated between operator and government. </p>
<p>A major risk with competitive tendering is that the pursuit of lower costs to government for service provision are often associated with poorer service quality. Operators look for ways to cut costs to sustain the low bid price needed to win the contract.</p>
<p>Such risks were <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/editorial/education-hinges-on-top-teachers-and-money-20120903-25ap4.html">noted</a> <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/critics-fear-repeat-of-bus-tender-mistakes-20120902-258f0.html">in the media</a> before the Transdev contract was awarded. </p>
<p>This issue is not unique to Melbourne. Five years ago <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/critics-fear-repeat-of-bus-tender-mistakes-20120902-258f0.html">concerns were raised</a> about competitive tendering for about half of Adelaide’s bus routes. </p>
<p>Pioneers of the competitive tendering process for the city’s bus contracts recognised the risk that the lowest-price option could come at the cost of poorer services for passengers. They had <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885910000429">argued</a>, unsuccessfully, against further tendering and in favour of negotiated performance-based contracts. </p>
<p>Internationally, the same story is increasingly being heard. For example, a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X17300598">recent analysis</a> of competitive tendering versus negotiated contracts for bus services in Barcelona province found no cost differences. The cost savings argument for competitive tendering is losing traction.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-budget-splash-raises-questions-about-privatisation-77082">Victorian budget splash raises questions about privatisation</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Performance falls short</h2>
<p>Expectations were high when the large bus service contract was awarded to Transdev. The company <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/anger-as-french-company-lands-bus-contract-20130426-2ijd1.html">promised major improvements</a>. </p>
<p>Public Transport Victoria’s then CEO, Ian Dobbs, <a href="https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/about-ptv/media-centre/media-releases/preferred-tenderer-announced-for-the-melbourne-metropolitan-bus-franchise/">said</a> Transdev had made it clear its priority was to deliver the highest-quality bus services. It would do this by continuously improving punctuality, reliability, safety, customer service and information, and by increasing bus patronage.</p>
<p>These ambitions appear to not have been achieved. This year, a Freedom-of-Information request by The Age <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/one-in-five-transdev-buses-run-late-as-passenger-numbers-plunge-20170424-gvrc0v.html">found</a> that Transdev had never met its contracted monthly punctuality target of 85%. The decline in bus users numbers tens of thousands a year. </p>
<p>These service failings are in addition to the safety concerns reported above. Two years into the contract, the Victorian auditor-general <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/tendering-metropolitan-bus-contracts">reported</a> that it had <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/billiondollar-public-bus-contracts-not-value-for-money-auditorgeneral-20150506-ggvcvz.html">not delivered value for money</a>.</p>
<p>It would appear that Transdev has largely failed to meet its performance targets. It seems reasonable to ask why the Victorian government would then negotiate to extend or rollover the contract.</p>
<h2>Don’t reward failure</h2>
<p>Meeting performance benchmarks should be a pre-condition for rolling over any contract. And the expectations for extending a contract should be clear and transparent when the contract begins. Accountability demands nothing less.</p>
<p>The 70% of the Melbourne network operated by other bus operators generally continues to perform effectively and efficiency. These services are contracted via a transparent negotiated process. Yet it is <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/off-the-buses-transdev-buses-pulled-off-the-road-after-failing-safety-blitz-20170919-gykwod.html">reported</a> that the government is considering opening these routes to more competition to improve services. </p>
<p>The Transdev experience, and increasing international evidence about competitive tendering not meeting expectations of service price and quality, cast serious doubt on this approach. </p>
<p>The benefits of competitive tendering of the rights to provide urban route bus services are generally overstated. State governments need to better recognise the societal value-for-money opportunities from negotiated bus contracts. </p>
<p>Passengers, especially those who lack alternatives, need a safe and high-quality transport service. That would encourage greater bus patronage, thus reducing traffic congestion, pollution and carbon emissions and their associated costs.</p>
<p>However, no matter whether competitive tendering or negotiation is used, operators that do not meet clear and transparent service benchmarks should be shown the door, not have their contracts extended.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85378/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janet Stanley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>No matter whether competitive tendering or negotiation is used, operators that do not meet clear and transparent service benchmarks should be shown the door.Janet Stanley, Principal Research Fellow – Urban Social Resilience, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/822512017-09-06T20:08:41Z2017-09-06T20:08:41ZPeople take to their bikes when we make it safer and easier for them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181898/original/file-20170814-28430-17u0lgb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Netherlands' cycleways are popular for commuting, because the infrastructure is safe, accessible and convenient.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://departmentfortransport.wordpress.com/tag/picture-post/?order=asc">The Alternative Department for Transport</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The latest <a href="http://www.bicyclecouncil.com.au/publication/national-cycling-participation-survey-2017">national cycling participation data</a>, released in June this year, show the proportion of Australians cycling has fallen significantly since 2011. This is bad news for health and wellbeing, and for the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/11/why-cycling-could-be-good-for-the-economy/">economy</a> as well. </p>
<p>However, our recent <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214140517301500">research</a> shows some exceptions to this trend, in places where safe cycleways have been built.</p>
<p>While many of the world’s cities are investing in cycling, Australian cities are pedalling backwards. Cycling targets may appear in planning documents, but federal and state governments have clearly failed to commit adequate resources to achieving these goals. </p>
<p>Governments tend to see cycling as sport, recreation or a children’s activity, rather than as an essential part of a modern multi-modal transport system. </p>
<h2>We have yet to tap cycling’s potential</h2>
<p>It was refreshing to hear New South Wales state MP Geoff Lee lauding the opening of the <a href="https://www.cityofparramatta.nsw.gov.au/about-parramatta/news/media-release/key-missing-link-of-parramatta-walking-and-cycling-path-now">Parramatta Valley Cycleway</a>. The cycleway connects vast areas of his electorate with Parramatta CBD, Western Sydney University, Westmead Hospital, Olympic Park and many schools and rail stations. </p>
<p>However, as well as <a href="https://www.cityofparramatta.nsw.gov.au/about-parramatta/news/media-release/key-missing-link-of-parramatta-walking-and-cycling-path-now">commending the project</a> for giving “local residents, cycling and fitness enthusiasts more ways to enjoy and explore our beautiful local area”, Lee could perhaps have said more about its huge transport potential.</p>
<p>Many of the trips we make around our cities – for work, school, shopping, visiting friends, getting to a train station – are <a href="https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/dataset/household-travel-survey-201213">less than two kilometres</a>. Given adequate facilities – and perhaps a more <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/aug/12/mandatory-bike-helmet-laws-do-more-harm-than-good-senate-hears">liberal approach to cycling regulation</a> – many of these trips could be easily (and quickly) made by bicycle. </p>
<p>If more of us were cycling for transport, we could expect to see some reduction in <a href="https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/health-topics/topics/phys/benefits">heart disease, diabetes</a> and <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221414051300008X">stress levels</a>, and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25481703">an improvement in our overall wellbeing</a>. </p>
<p>More of us could be liberated from sitting in <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-sydney-needs-congestion-20160510-gos5dz.html">perennial traffic congestion</a>. More businesses could increase their productivity by switching to bicycle delivery, as <a href="https://www.dominos.com.au/inside-dominos/media/aug-2015-domino-s-tech-innovation-drives-record-profits">Domino’s Pizza</a> has done. Innovative business ventures, like recently launched <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/will-chinas-bike-boom-beat-sydney-traffic-20170615-gwrq46.html">app-based bike-share services (Reddy Go and oBike)</a>, might be more likely to succeed.</p>
<h2>Build a cycleway and the riders will come</h2>
<p>The national cycling participation data show NSW now has the <a href="https://www.bicyclenetwork.com.au/general/media/4948/%20http://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2015/08/13/sydney_s-cyclists-twice-as-happy-as-other-commuters--new-researc.html">smallest proportion of people cycling</a> in Australia. However, this varies widely from area to area. </p>
<p>Our research shows residents of some parts of Sydney are bucking the trend and riding more often. And the key reason is investment in cycleways by councils such as the City of Sydney.</p>
<p>Over two years, we observed changes in travel and uptake of cycling among residents living in suburbs south of Sydney’s CBD, before and after a 2.4km cycleway was built through their neighbourhood in 2014.</p>
<p>We also observed residents living in similar suburbs west of the CBD, where no new cycleways were built during this time. This type of study is known as a <a href="http://jech.bmj.com/content/66/12/1182">natural experiment</a>, which can help isolate the effects of an intervention (in this case a new cycleway) from the effects of background factors (more on these below). </p>
<p>We found that, while cycling decreased elsewhere, people living closest to the cycleway continued to cycle and cycled more frequently. Those living a little further away – between 1km and 3km from the cycleway – actually increased their weekly cycling, compared with those either closer to or further from it. </p>
<p>Data from biannual bicycle traffic counts corroborated these findings. These showed that bicycle traffic at one point on the cycleway more than doubled after it opened, while the average count across the city declined somewhat.</p>
<p>Even when adjusting for uneven population growth, cycling along the route clearly increased relative to areas with no investment in new facilities.</p>
<h2>Bikes aren’t promoted as everyday transport</h2>
<p>It’s important to note that our study coincided with major changes to Sydney’s transport environment. </p>
<p>A new public transport ticketing system, the Opal smartcard, was introduced in 2014, which made public transport more attractive. Major changes were made to bus routes in 2015, to allow construction of light rail along the CBD’s main thoroughfare (George Street). </p>
<p>At the same time, the state government demolished the College Street Cycleway, one of the busiest commuting routes in the city, to create space for more traffic.</p>
<p>The government announced steeply increased fines for cycling infringements, as well as plans to force people to carry ID when cycling. Police stepped up enforcement of even the most <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/aug/24/sydney-australia-war-cyclists-fines">trivial of cycling offences</a>. Despite these measures being justified on safety grounds, the cycling injury rate appears to have since <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/cycling-fines-soar-in-first-year-of-harsher-penalties-in-nsw-20170801-gxn311.html">increased</a>.</p>
<p>This array of background factors highlights the importance of our natural experiment approach, and may explain why cycling rates fell in areas with no new infrastructure.</p>
<p>Although transport cycling (as opposed to sport cycling) is <a href="https://momentummag.com/is-cycling-safe/">relatively safe</a>, concerns about safety and fear of traffic are among the main reasons people give for not riding. A connected network of protected cycleways and quiet streets across a city allows people to get to more places by bicycle, without feeling intimidated by traffic. </p>
<p>This is the underlying philosophy of the <a href="http://www.sydneycycleways.net/projects/">City of Sydney’s cycleways strategy</a>. It’s also the first step in enabling the average Australian to use a bike for everyday transport.</p>
<p>At a time when government spending on transport and health care is ballooning, our research shows a relatively small investment in cycling infrastructure could give many more people the option to make short trips by bicycle. </p>
<p>But it would help if legislators considered proven measures for protecting people who are considering cycling for transport. It appears punitive fines and heavy-handed policing simply drive them straight back onto <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydneys-worsening-congestion-lengthens-wait-times-for-business-vehicles-20170515-gw5mpc.html">crowded roads</a> and <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/opal-figures-show-skyrocketing-passenger-demand-on-sydney-train-lines-20170811-gxubre.html">trains</a> – while doing little or nothing to improve safety.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82251/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Crane received funding from the Australian Research Council to conduct this research</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Rissel received funding from the Australian Research Council to conduct this research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Standen received funding from the Australian Research Council to conduct this research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Greaves received funding from the Australian Research Council to conduct this research.</span></em></p>The evidence suggests a small investment in cycling infrastructure, combined with less punitive policing, would enable more Australians to escape daily traffic congestion.Melanie Crane, Research Fellow, University of SydneyChris Rissel, Professor of Public Health, University of SydneyChristopher Standen, PhD Candidate in Transport Economics, University of SydneyStephen Greaves, Professor in Transport Management, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/793432017-07-02T20:08:57Z2017-07-02T20:08:57ZStuck in traffic: busting Melbourne versus Sydney myths and identifying the worst commutes<p>Crawling along in low gear, Melbourne drivers often comfort themselves with the thought that at least they’re not in Sydney, where “everyone knows” traffic delays are longer and even more frustrating. Sorry, Melburnians, but you’re kidding yourselves.</p>
<p>New analysis for a forthcoming report by the Grattan Institute debunks several myths about traffic congestion in Australia’s biggest cities – including the conventional wisdom that Sydney-siders are doing it tougher. </p>
<p>Sydney may have <a>340,000 more people</a> and an enormous harbour constricting movements from one part of the city to another, but Melbourne is pretty much on a par when it comes to congestion. </p>
<h2>Twin pictures of congestion</h2>
<p>Chart 1 shows the delay that an average CBD commuter endures in Sydney and Melbourne, compared to how long it would take to do the trip in the early hours of the morning when the only constraints are traffic lights and speed limits. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175777/original/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data for more than 300 routes travelling to and from the CBD were collected 25 times each day over about 12 weeks between March and June 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan analysis of Google Maps data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the morning peak, an average Melbourne CBD commuting trip takes close to 70% longer than it would in the middle of the night. The 11-kilometre trip from Brighton takes an extra 13 minutes, and the 30km trip from Caroline Springs an extra 20 minutes. The 9km from Coburg take an extra 14 minutes, while the 17km from Doncaster take an extra 20 minutes.</p>
<p>It’s similar in Sydney. The average morning commute to the CBD takes 50-60% longer than it would in the middle of the night. The 40km trip from Liverpool takes an extra 32 minutes, while a trip of similar length from Blacktown typically takes an extra 20. Driving the 17km from Manly takes an extra 21 minutes, while the 7km trip from the airport takes an extra 12.</p>
<p>It doesn’t take quite as long to get home from the city. In the afternoon peak, an average trip takes up to 60% longer than it would in the middle of the night. But it’s harder to avoid the delay: peak “hour” is much longer in the evening than in the morning. Any time from 3.30pm to 6pm you can expect your trip to take at least 40% longer.</p>
<p>We found these patterns by analysing Google Maps estimates of travel times for more than 300 routes across Sydney and Melbourne. The data include 25 travel-time estimates every day for several months. This includes commutes to the CBD and other employment centres, important freight routes, shorter trips within the inner, middle and outer rings, and cross-city trips. </p>
<h2>So which drivers have the worst run?</h2>
<p>Here’s a finding that might surprise drivers who have to crawl over the West Gate Bridge to get to and from work: the worst place to commute to Melbourne’s CBD is not from the rapidly growing western suburbs, but from the northeastern suburbs. That probably won’t surprise you if your commute includes the Eastern Freeway. </p>
<p>Chart 2 shows the typical delay for commuters coming to Melbourne’s CBD from the southeast, northeast, north, south and west. The northeast is the stand-out worst performer, as those who live in Doncaster, Heidelberg and beyond know all too well.
Interestingly, people commuting from the west face much more modest delays.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175779/original/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan analysis of Google Maps data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sydney does not have a single region where residents can so clearly expect bad city commutes. That doesn’t mean there’s no congestion. And neither does it mean that it’s just people going to the CBD who are caught up in the commuting tangle. It’s also all the freight vehicles, tradespeople, students going to school or uni, people going to appointments in business hours, and others going elsewhere but still caught up in the snarl of traffic.</p>
<p>Chart 3 shows a selection of trips that don’t include the Sydney CBD but do have delays, with the size of delay depending on the direction of the trip. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176325/original/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Sydney, the delay depends more on the direction of the trip, than what side of the city commuters are driving from.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan analysis of Google Maps data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The how-long-does-it-take-you-to-get-to-work story involves more than roads. One-quarter of Sydney commuters and 18% of Melbourne commuters <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2014/files/is_059.pdf">use public transport</a>, and these figures are much <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/theurbanist/2015/01/21/why-do-commuters-drive-to-work-instead-of-taking-transit/">higher for commuters to the CBD</a>. Nonetheless, around <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2016/files/BITRE_yearbook_2016_statistics_full_report.pdf">eight of every ten kilometres of travel</a> by Sydney and Melbourne residents is by car. </p>
<p>What happens on our roads affects the daily lives of most city dwellers, as well as the social and economic rhythms of the city. The Grattan Institute will publish a fuller analysis of congestion in coming months, to help governments make the best use of our transport networks – and reduce your time on the road.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79343/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p>For Melbourne drivers who comfort themselves with the thought that traffic congestion is worse in Sydney, sorry but new analysis shows overall delays are similar, but some commutes are especially bad.Marion Terrill, Transport Program Director, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/736842017-04-04T19:26:40Z2017-04-04T19:26:40ZHow do we restore the public’s faith in transport planning?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162549/original/image-20170327-18970-1d5k97c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Politicised projects that steamroll proper process are giving transport planning a bad name.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is the third article in our series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/making-cities-work-37182">Making Cities Work</a>. It considers the problems of providing critical infrastructure and how we might produce the innovations and reforms needed to meet 21st-century needs and challenges.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Opposition to proposed road projects has become a feature of state and federal elections. </p>
<p>In Western Australia, protests <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-ingredients-for-running-a-successful-environmental-campaign-72371">against the Roe Highway Stage 8</a> escalated just before Christmas 2016. On the eve of the state election, Main Roads WA contractors (acting at the behest of the then Liberal-National government) pushed forward with the destruction of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/roe-8-perths-environmental-flashpoint-in-the-wa-election-74155">environmentally significant</a> Beeliar wetlands. </p>
<p>This happened despite considerable community opposition. The Labor opposition, now the newly elected government, declared it would <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-04/labor-to-scrap-roe-8-if-it-wins-wa-election/8160980">halt the construction</a> if elected.</p>
<h2>Politics as usual puts planning under a cloud</h2>
<p>In our recently <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/uchdXHUJR7HKCMyEUncd/full">published paper</a>, we compared road projects in Melbourne (East West Link), Sydney (WestConnex) and Perth (Perth Freight Link). Based on observational, policy and media analysis, we found growing antagonism between the state governments and their residents. </p>
<p>Roe 8 is just the latest freeway battle in Australia, following those in <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/election-2016-labor-promises-not-to-fund-westconnex-as-anthony-albanese-addresses-electorate-20160519-gozdj3.html">Sydney</a> and <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014-premier-denis-napthine-announces-250m-for-tullamarine-freeway-20141108-11j0rn.html">Melbourne</a>, where the Labor government <a href="https://theconversation.com/east-west-link-shows-miserable-failure-of-planning-process-40232">cancelled the East West Link</a>.</p>
<p>To the casual observer, these protests, and promises by parties in opposition to scrap contracts if elected, could be seen simply as “politics as usual”. </p>
<p>However, normalising politics in transport can veil the deficiencies and shortcuts that undermine planners’ ability to act in the public interest. For this reason, it is critical that we examine what dynamics are at play, and how planning serves and/or exacerbates these. </p>
<h2>Professional planning bypassed</h2>
<p>In the case of Roe 8, <a href="https://theconversation.com/roe-8-fails-the-tests-of-responsible-21st-century-infrastructure-planning-71810">good planning was circumvented</a>. </p>
<p>Not only is this undermining efforts to reduce car dependency and invest in public transport – goals adopted in these three cities’ metropolitan strategic plans since at least the 1990s – it is undermining professional planning practice. </p>
<p>The evasion of due process in planning has recently come into sharp focus. Reports by the <a href="https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/approval-and-administration-commonwealth-funding-westconnex-project">Australian Auditor-General</a> on the WestConnex project in Sydney and by the <a href="http://www.audit.vic.gov.au/publications/20151209-East-West-Link/20151209-East-West-Link.pdf">Victorian Auditor-General</a> on the East West Link in Melbourne are severely critical of processes taken. The report on the East West Link concluded that the Victorian government lacked “a sound basis for the government’s decision to commit to the investment”. </p>
<p>In the case of Roe 8, Main Roads WA documents provided to the Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development were recently released under FOI after a two-year court battle to keep them secret. These show a rushed and partial assessment of the transport case for the road was put to Infrastructure Australia. </p>
<p>The latter, in its own <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-19/perth-freight-link-poorly-planned-hastily-conceived-report/6707364">assessment</a>, alerts us to concerns about inadequate analysis:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A rapid BCR (benefit cost ratio) was completed for the preferred option only … [and] a rapid BCR was not completed for additional options to determine if the preferred option provided the greatest net benefits. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Traffic planning is only one part of the process. A Freight Network Review commenced in 2001 and <a href="https://www.planning.wa.gov.au/dop_pub_pdf/attachment_2.pdf">concluded in 2003</a> found that Roe 8 was not needed. There is no publicly available report stating why this sound planning was set aside.</p>
<p>In addition, proper planning process has been bypassed. The previous WA government argued that the Roe Highway had been reserved in the Metropolitan Region Scheme (MRS) since the 1960s and that this was good long-term planning. However, the detailed road alignment falls outside this reserve at three locations. </p>
<p>This triggered the use by the WA Planning Commission of a “Planning Control Area” (PCA), the purpose of which is to protect land until “proper planning” can take place. After this, an MRS amendment must be initiated and advertised for public comment.</p>
<p>Construction began before any public consultation on the MRS amendment. Was this to avoid public scrutiny? </p>
<p>Public consultation is an important part of any good planning process. It was undertaken for other 1960s major road reserves. These were reviewed against current knowledge and policy, and in some cases <a href="https://www.planning.wa.gov.au/dop_pub_pdf/121041_-_MRS_Report_on_Submissions.pdf">deleted</a> (the Stirling Highway, for example). </p>
<p>Public input into the planning process provides an opportunity for governments to bring the community with them through both owning the planning problem and arriving at a solution that the public can support. </p>
<h2>Risks of politicisation are high</h2>
<p>Large transport projects are likely to attract opposition from affected communities. Construction is disruptive and the visual, noise and amenity changes are significant. </p>
<p>These projects are also transformational. They lead to profound city-wide, and even region-wide, changes to the environment and the working of a city. </p>
<p>For these reasons, planning for transport projects must be a process of careful consideration. It requires sound professional planning based on reasoned justification drawing on the best available evidence. This process must be transparent to all. </p>
<p>When politicians choose a different course to planning advice, this must be on their own account and again transparent. We need a strong discussion on professional ethics and the need for clear separation of planners’ independent advice from elected politicians’ decisions.</p>
<p>In the case of Roe 8, are we to assume that the analysis and conduct of the planning process we see revealed reflects what planners at Main Roads WA and the Western Australian Planning Commission believe is sound professional practice? Or are they simply building a case for politicians? </p>
<p>Without clear and transparent documentation, planners leave themselves open to criticism and bring the profession into disrepute.</p>
<h2>Room for improvement</h2>
<p>Based on <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/uchdXHUJR7HKCMyEUncd/full">our research</a>, we assert the need to recognise that the gap between strategic planning and project planning needs to be filled by a more community-oriented decision-making process.</p>
<p>We must challenge “<a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/AAdExHQCg67j4mhsDFvP/full">urgency</a>” – when governments aim to sign contracts before we have had sound planning analysis and community input. </p>
<p>Long-term planning does not mean that a project like Roe 8, which was first mooted more than 50 years ago, must be built today. We need to take into account new knowledge and current views on our future. We must place equality and environmental and economic sustainability in balance, as weighed by community values. </p>
<p>The political process is one place where those values must be considered holistically. This is immensely important, but it should not undermine transparent and sound planning. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article draws on a <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/uchdXHUJR7HKCMyEUncd/full">research paper</a> by the authors in a new <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/cupr20/35/1">special issue</a> of the international journal, Urban Policy and Research, on critical urban infrastructure. You can read other published articles in our series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/making-cities-work-37182">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carey Curtis is affiliated with the Beeliar Group of Professors for Environmental Responsibility</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jan Scheurer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Politicised transport projects that flout proper process lead to hostility between residents and governments, and give planners a bad name.Crystal Legacy, Australian Research Council (DECRA) Fellow and Vice Chancellor's Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Research, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityCarey Curtis, Professor of City Planning and Transport, Curtin UniversityJan Scheurer, Senior Research Fellow, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/712722017-02-22T03:20:30Z2017-02-22T03:20:30ZCity streets become a living lab that could transform your daily travel<p>Integrated transport has long been the holy grail of transport engineering. Now, a project set up north of Melbourne’s CBD aims to make it a reality. </p>
<p>Led by the School of Engineering at the University of Melbourne, the project will create a living laboratory for developing a highly integrated, smart, multimodal transport system. The goals are to make travel more efficient, safer, cleaner and more sustainable. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.citytransport.info/Integ.htm">Integrated transport</a> aims to combine various modes of travel to provide seamless door-to-door services. Reduced delays, increased safety and better health can all be achieved by sharing information between users, operators and network managers. This will optimise mobility and minimise costs for travellers.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/world-first-hi-tech-transport-research-for-melbourne/">National Connected Multimodal Transport Test Bed</a> includes arterial roads and local streets in an area of 4.5 square kilometres in Carlton, Fitzroy and Collingwood.</p>
<p>Bounded by Alexandra Parade and Victoria, Hoddle and Lygon streets, this busy inner-suburban area is a perfect location to test a new generation of connected transport systems. Our growing cities will need these systems to manage their increasing traffic. </p>
<h2>How will the test bed work?</h2>
<p>The test bed covers all modes of transport. From April, it is due to collect data on vehicles, cyclists, public transport, pedestrians and traffic infrastructure, such as signals and parking. The area will be equipped with advanced sensors (for measuring emissions and noise levels) and communications infrastructure (such as wireless devices on vehicles and signals). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The test bed will collect data on all aspects of transport in the inner-suburban area covered by the project.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The aim is to use all this data to allow the transport system to be more responsive to disruption and more user-focused. </p>
<p>This is a unique opportunity for key stakeholders to work together to build a range of core technologies for collecting, integrating and processing data. This data will be used to develop advanced information-based transport services.</p>
<p>The project has attracted <a href="http://newsroom.melbourne.edu/news/coming-commute-near-you-melbourne-launches-world-first-connected-living-transport-lab">strong support</a> from government, industry and operators. </p>
<p>Government will benefit by having access to information on how an integrated transport system works. This can be used to develop policies and create business models, systems and technologies for integrated mobility options. </p>
<p>The test bed allows industry to create and test globally relevant solutions and products. Academics and research students at the University of Melbourne are working on cutting-edge experimental studies in collaboration with leading multinationals.</p>
<p>This will accelerate the deployment of this technology in the real world. It also creates enormous opportunities for participation in industry up-skilling, training and education. </p>
<h2>What are the likely benefits?</h2>
<p>Urban transport systems need to become more adaptable and better integrated to enhance mobility. Current systems have long suffered from being disjointed and mode-centric. They are also highly vulnerable to disruption. Public transport terminals can fail to provide seamless transfers and co-ordination between modes. </p>
<p>This project can help transport to break out of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/disruption-ahead-personal-mobility-is-breaking-down-old-transport-divides-70338">traditional barriers between services</a>. The knowledge gained can be used to provide users with an integrated and intelligent transport system.</p>
<p>It has been difficult, however, to trial new technologies in urban transport without strong involvement from key stakeholders. An environment and platform where travellers can experience the benefits in a real-world setting is needed. The test bed enables technologies to be adapted so vehicles and infrastructure can be more responsive to real-time demand and operational conditions. </p>
<p>Rapid advancements in sensing and communication technologies allow for a new generation of solutions to be developed. However, artificial environments and computer simulation models lack the realism to ensure new transport technologies can be properly designed and evaluated. The living lab provides this. </p>
<p>The test bed will allow governments and transport operators to share data using a common information platform. People and vehicles will be able to communicate with each other and the transport infrastructure to allow the whole system to operate more intelligently. The new active transport systems will lead to safety and health benefits.</p>
<p>The test bed allows impacts on <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-future-world-full-of-driverless-cars-seriously-64606">safety in a connected environment</a> to be investigated. Interactions between active transport modes such as walking and cycling with connected or autonomous vehicles can be examined to ensure safety is enhanced in complex urban environments. Researchers will study the effects of warning systems such as red light violation, pedestrian movements near crossings, and bus stops. </p>
<p>Low-carbon mobility solutions will also be evaluated to improve sustainability and cut transport emissions. </p>
<p>Environmental sensors combined with traffic-measurement devices will help researchers understand the effects of various types of vehicles and congestion levels. This includes the impacts of emerging <a href="https://theconversation.com/drafts/63638/edit">disruptive technologies</a> such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-winners-and-losers-in-the-race-for-driverless-cars-63874">autonomous</a>, on-demand, <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-000-cars-and-no-garage-why-car-sharing-works-31179">shared</a> mobility systems. </p>
<p>A range of indoor and outdoor sensor networks, such as Wi-Fi, will be used to trial integrated public transport services at stations and terminals. The goal is to ensure seamless transfers between modes and optimised transit operations.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The main image caption was corrected on February 23.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71272/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Majid Sarvi works for the University of Melbourne as the Professor in Transport for Smart Cities.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary Liddle and Russell G. Thompson do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A project set up north of Melbourne’s CBD aims to create a living laboratory for developing a highly integrated, smart, multimodal transport system.Majid Sarvi, Chair in Transport Engineering and the Professor in Transport for Smart Cities, The University of MelbourneGary Liddle, Enterprise Professor, Transport, The University of MelbourneRussell G. Thompson, Associate Professor in Transport Engineering, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/642332016-08-25T00:29:10Z2016-08-25T00:29:10ZFactCheck: does the average Australian family spend up to $22,000 every year on transport?<blockquote>
<p>The release of Australia’s first Transport Affordability Index by the Australian Automobile Association (AAA) reveals the average Australian family is spending up to $22,000 every year to get around. – Australian Automobile Association, <a href="http://www.aaa.asn.au/news-and-publications/news/article/?id=new-data-shows-true-cost-of-transport">media release</a>, August 22, 2016.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A new <a href="http://www.aaa.asn.au/storage/aaa-transport-affordability-index.pdf">report</a>, commissioned by the Australian Automobile Association and compiled by SGS Economics and Planning, has estimated transport costs for a typical household in Australia’s capital cities. The calculations factored in public transport spending and car costs such as registration, fuel, insurance and tolls.</p>
<p>In a media release accompanying the report, the Australian Automobile Association said that “the average Australian family is spending up to $22,000 every year to get around.”</p>
<p>Is that accurate?</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>The Conversation asked SGS Economics and Planning and the Australian Automobile Association to clarify several aspects of their calculations. You can read their full response <a href="http://theconversation.com/full-response-from-sgs-economics-and-planning-64308">here</a>. </p>
<p>The SGS Economics and Planning <a href="http://www.aaa.asn.au/storage/aaa-transport-affordability-index.pdf">full report</a> explains in detail the assumptions that underpin their snapshot of transport costs for a typical household in Australia’s capital cities.</p>
<p>Their hypothetical household in each capital city featured a couple in their 30s with children. The adults were employed, lived in a detached house and had two cars, which were driven 15,000 and 10,000 kilometres per year. The car that drives 10,000 kilometres per year is assumed to be ten years old and owned outright. The car that drives 15,000 kilometres per year is assumed to be less than three years old, purchased new and financed with a car loan. In addition, one member of the household is assumed to travel by public transport into the CBD and home again, five days a week. </p>
<p>In each city, the hypothetical household is assumed to live in middle to outer ring suburbs, with a relatively high population density, good access to public transport, and – in the case of the Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane householders – use toll roads to access the CBD. </p>
<p>These assumptions and estimates contained in the report appear valid to me. Overall, the report seems to be a reasonable attempt to deconstruct transportation costs. Assumptions about both cars being used for more than 10,000 kilometres per year while one person commutes daily via public transport could be questioned, but this would only make a difference at the margins. </p>
<h2>Report finds national average annual transport cost is closer to $17,000</h2>
<p>The Australian Automobile Association said the report “reveals the average Australian family is spending up to $22,000 every year to get around” – but the key phrase there is <em>up to</em>.</p>
<p>The authors of the report looked at two consecutive quarters of transport data – Q1 of 2016 (quarter one, January to March) and Q2 of 2016 (quarter two, April to June). The report found that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Annualised figures reveal a total transport cost for Q2 of $21,791 in Sydney, while the annual cost for Hobart is $7,691 less, at $14,100.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So the figure of $22,000 relates to Sydney, not the national average. The higher costs in Sydney relate to tolls, registration and compulsory third party insurance, the report said.</p>
<p>In fact, the researchers estimated that the national average transport cost for the second quarter of 2016 is around $323.36 a week, or an annual national average of $16,814.72, as shown in this table from the report:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134897/original/image-20160822-30370-cazbbd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134897/original/image-20160822-30370-cazbbd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134897/original/image-20160822-30370-cazbbd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134897/original/image-20160822-30370-cazbbd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134897/original/image-20160822-30370-cazbbd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134897/original/image-20160822-30370-cazbbd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134897/original/image-20160822-30370-cazbbd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134897/original/image-20160822-30370-cazbbd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Household total weekly transport costs, Transport Affordability Index: August 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.aaa.asn.au/storage/aaa-transport-affordability-index.pdf">Transport Affordability Index: August 2016, SGS Economics and Planning.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So the Australian Automobile Association’s assertion that the report reveals the average Australian family is spending <em>up to</em> $22,000 every year to get around is correct – but just remember that’s the upper end of the estimates range detailed in the report, as this chart shows:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134905/original/image-20160822-30403-176wdv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134905/original/image-20160822-30403-176wdv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134905/original/image-20160822-30403-176wdv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134905/original/image-20160822-30403-176wdv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134905/original/image-20160822-30403-176wdv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134905/original/image-20160822-30403-176wdv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134905/original/image-20160822-30403-176wdv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134905/original/image-20160822-30403-176wdv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Household total weekly transport costs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.aaa.asn.au/storage/aaa-transport-affordability-index.pdf">SGS Economics and Planning</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The report found that the national average annual spend on transport is closer to $16,814 or $17,000 if you round up.</p>
<h2>Checking the numbers against other sources</h2>
<p>The report’s estimate of roughly $17,000 in annual household transport costs for the national average is higher than transport cost estimates produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.</p>
<p>But it’s not uncommon for different economic models to produce different results – it all depends on what assumptions you factor into the modelling. </p>
<p>The last <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6530.02009-10?OpenDocument">Household Expenditure Survey</a>, conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in 2009-2010, indicated that Australians <a href="http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/CB07CC895DCE2829CA2579020015D8FD/$File/65300_2009-10.pdf">spent an average of $193 per week on transport expenses</a>. After adjusting for inflation, that is the equivalent of $221 per week in 2016, or $11,531 per year. </p>
<p>Included in the ABS survey’s definition of transport costs is motor vehicle purchase, fuel, registration, insurance, parts, public transport fares and several other expenses.</p>
<p>In their response to The Conversation, SGS Economics and Planning said the discrepancy was partly because the ABS’ Household Expenditure Survey:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… includes figures on transport costs from a range of households, from couple families with kids in the outer suburbs to inner-city singles who rarely drive to regional pensioners… We chose to focus on couple families with children and the costs they are likely to face as they are the most common family type in Australia… Couples with children are likely to have higher transport costs than other family types such as singles, single parents or couples without children, as they are larger and more likely to be working.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>You can read more of their response <a href="http://theconversation.com/full-response-from-sgs-economics-and-planning-64308">here</a>. </p>
<p>The ABS data treats the major part of a car purchase as an asset (i.e. is not included in expenses related to travel), so if you treat household motor vehicles as a cost rather than an asset you can get a number that approaches the annual figure in the recent SGS Economics and Planning report.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.aaa.asn.au/storage/aaa-transport-affordability-index.pdf">report</a> assumes regular toll road usage in the capital cities, which, of course, doesn’t apply to all of us. And it also makes the debatable assumption that one member of the household uses public transport regularly while another member uses toll roads with similar regularity. </p>
<p>Naturally, the biggest contributor to overall costs may be how expensive your car or cars are (and, thus, any associated repayments), the level of which is largely at the discretion of the household. </p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Overall, the SGS Economics and Planning report appears to be a reasonable attempt to deconstruct transportation costs, but is specific to a particular type of household within each city rather than all households who travel.</p>
<p>The Australian Automobile Association’s statement that the report “reveals the average Australian family is spending up to $22,000 every year to get around” is technically accurate, thanks to the inclusion of the qualifier “up to”. </p>
<p>However, it is worth noting that the $22,000 figure (which applies to a typical Sydney family) represents the highest end of the range of estimates contained in the report. </p>
<p>The report found that the national average annual spend on transport is closer to around $17,000, which is higher than transport cost estimates produced by the ABS in the past. <strong>– Matthew Beck</strong></p>
<hr>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>I agree with this FactCheck and its conclusion.</p>
<p>The really important missing cost is the time lost to travel, especially when it is over one hour per day. <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0040162594900418">Marchetti’s constant</a>, a concept based on the research of Italian physicist <a href="http://cesaremarchetti.org/">Cesare Marchetti</a>, posits that anything more than an hour of travel time per day is problematic.</p>
<p>It would be interesting to compare options than the hypothetical “average Australian household” example given in the report. For example, both the dollar costs and time costs in Australia could be reduced by having one fewer car for the average family, and living in a location that allows that option to become viable.</p>
<p>My own <a href="http://islandpress.org/book/the-end-of-automobile-dependence">research</a> suggests that many cities around the world are increasingly opting for greater investment in public transport and higher density urban redevelopment, rather than building housing on the fringes of cities where houses cost less but transport costs are huge. <strong>– Peter Newman</strong></p>
<hr>
<p><div class="callout"> Have you ever seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Australian Automobile Association said that a new report showed that “the average Australian family is spending up to $22,000 every year to get around.” Is that accurate?Matthew Beck, Senior Lecturer in Infrastructure Management, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/468292015-09-01T05:38:21Z2015-09-01T05:38:21ZWhy we shouldn’t dismiss the idea of women-only carriages<p>After Labour Party leadership candidate Jeremy Corbyn raised the idea of women-only carriages on trains the idea has been variously described as a “<a href="http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/national/news/13626946.Labour_leadership_rivals_condemn_Corbyn_s_women_only_train_carriages_suggestion/">backward step for women</a>”, or “<a href="https://theconversation.com/women-only-train-carriages-are-just-another-form-of-victim-blaming-46693">another form of victim blaming</a>”, and even <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyns-womenonly-carriages-idea-is-apartheid-says-labour-mp-geraint-davies-10473066.html">compared to apartheid</a>. The harassment women experience in public spaces and what to do about it is a highly emotive subject, so why dismiss the idea outright? </p>
<p>British Transport Police figures <a href="http://www.btp.police.uk/pdf/BTP-%20Statistical%20Bulletin%202014-15.pdf">record</a> a 25% increase in reported sexual offences which, while it may seem alarming, does not surprise me. Research suggests that crime is <a href="http://www.nedlevine.com/nedlevine8.htm">particularly under-reported on public transport</a>, for several reasons. It is difficult to report crime on a moving vehicle, and it’s not always clear who to report it to, or may not seem worthwhile after the event, as nothing will be done. Transport staff may not report harassment for similar reasons. Figures from <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/documents/safety-and-security-annual-report-2014-15.pdf">TfL</a> suggest 93% of those experiencing sexual harassment or assault on public transport did not report it. </p>
<p>Between 2013 and 2014 the British Transport Police (BTP) ran two major high profile campaigns, <a href="http://www.btp.police.uk/advice_and_information/how_we_tackle_crime/project_guardian.aspx">Project Guardian</a> and <a href="http://www.btp.police.uk/advice_and_information/how_we_tackle_crime/report_it_to_stop_it.aspx">Report it to Stop it</a>, to encourage greater reporting of violent and sexual offences, particularly against women. So with this in mind, increased reports of crime suggests these campaigns are succeeding. But an initial spike in reports is common; it’s only over a longer period that a scheme’s success can be judged. </p>
<p>Precise crime figures aside, the question is what to do about it. Crime prevention generally doesn’t work well as a one-size-fits-all solution, and evidence for women-only carriages is <a href="https://theconversation.com/women-only-train-carriages-are-just-another-form-of-victim-blaming-46693">mixed</a>. The arguments against women-only carriages, used in <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/26/women-only-train-carriages-around-the-world-jeremy-corbyn">Iran, Japan, India, the UAE, Egypt, and Brazil</a>, are that they may increase victim blaming, could be seen as disempowerment rather than safety, and that women in mixed spaces when women-only spaces are available may be seen as “asking for it”. Nor do they do anything to tackle assaults against male passengers. </p>
<p>Let’s be absolutely clear: victim-blaming is in no way acceptable, and we must encourage people to report crimes committed against them, and require operators and the police to take steps to tackle the problem. However, consider a poll by Reuters that suggested <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/29/women-poll-carriages-idUKL6N0S42MD20141029">45% of women would feel safer in women-only carriages</a>, especially at night. </p>
<h2>Different spaces</h2>
<p>Public transport <a href="http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/19462/1/Newton_Crime_and_PT_Final.pdf">is different to other public spaces</a>. Inside a moving carriage a passenger is in effect a captive, placed alongside unfamiliar people in a confined space, with little control over where and when they can move, and who gets on and off a carriage. It’s not like a customer in a bar, who can leave at any time if they feel unsafe, or a pedestrian who can take alternative routes if they prefer. </p>
<p>Research has shown people are <a href="http://www98.griffith.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/handle/10072/37373/68997_1.pdf?sequence=1">more likely to intervene</a> if they see a crime when in familiar places, so those victims of assaults on transport and those that could potentially help them are often all in unfamiliar territory. <a href="https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources/research/reports/344/docs/344.pdf">Research</a> shows people feel more unsafe waiting for public transport at stops and stations than on transport. And unsurprisingly it is women, the elderly, young people and those with disabilities who report feeling most vulnerable at any stage of their journey. So if we want to encourage greater use of <a href="http://www.palgrave.com/page/detail/Safety-and-Security-in-Transit-Environments/?K=9781137457646">public transport</a>, we need to make all users feel safe.</p>
<p>Consider that trains at certain times are extremely congested, with many people squeezed close to each other, while at other times trains are nearly empty. The first may give rise to concealed groping, the second raises concerns of overt, violent assaults – women-only carriages could be a practical solution to both, today. While they are seen as a backwards step in many western countries, they have been effective in other countries – and in fact existed in the UK until they were abolished in 1977.</p>
<p>So yes, groping and harassment of women on transport is not acceptable and we need a culture change. And the logistics of introducing segregated carriages is challenging: I am not calling for them to be introduced across all buses and trains. Who would enforce them? What would be done about the problem at station platforms or bus stops? India, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/11327271/Nepal-Women-only-bus-service-launched-to-combat-sexual-assaults.html">Nepal</a> and Mexico operate women-only bus routes, while Rio has pink women-only train carriages.</p>
<p>Universities often run free night minibuses to carry female students to their homes. Should similar provisions be made at certain times of day or night? Should we dismiss the idea so readily? </p>
<p>I’m not suggesting women-only carriages are the solution, but I feel they deserve a fuller debate than they’ve been afforded. At the very least the attention the issue has received is focusing attention on the problem, which can only be a good thing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Newton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Don’t dismiss the idea of women-only carriages. It might help.Andrew Newton, Reader in Criminology, University of HuddersfieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/416842015-05-21T03:30:22Z2015-05-21T03:30:22ZThe maths of congestion: springs, strings and traffic jams<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/82319/original/image-20150520-30566-78q7bp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The mathematical modelling of traffic networks can throw up conflicting results.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/intherough/3573333256/">Flickr/Wendell</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s not been a good year so far for major transport projects in Australia’s capital cities.</p>
<p>The scale of disagreements over the merits of Melbourne’s proposed East West Link was such that the Victorian Government recently <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-15/victorian-government-to-pay-339-million-east-west-link-contracts/6393536">paid out $339 million</a> simply for the project not to be built.</p>
<p>In Queensland, Annastacia Palaszczuk became the fourth successive Premier to completely throw out her predecessor’s <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/bat-tunnel-scrapped-as-government-looks-for-different-cross-river-rail-line-20150306-13wiyz.html">signature infrastructure project</a> – in this case the Bus and Train (BaT) Tunnel. </p>
<p>While Sydney’s WestConnex project is still going ahead, recent reports concluded that it will either <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/parramatta-road-traffic-will-increase-under-westconnex-study-shows-20150427-1mueqm.html">substantially increase traffic</a> on the much-maligned Parramatta Road, or maybe <a href="http://www.westconnex.com.au/documents/westconnex-executive-summary-september-2013.pdf">decrease it</a>. It all depends on which report you believe. </p>
<h2>Why such discrepancies?</h2>
<p>I am not going to debate the relative merits of these schemes. My background is in applied mathematics and not in transport planning. As such, my interest is less in the conclusions of some of these predicted usage studies and more in the consequences of the assumptions made in the modelling.</p>
<p>How can <a href="https://majorprojects.affinitylive.com/public/9cd516477ae2681594d1354d8c5330ee/01_M4Widening_EIS_ExecSumm.pdf">one report</a> filed with the <a href="http://majorprojects.planning.nsw.gov.au/">NSW Major Project register</a> predict 20,000 fewer cars per day on a section of Parramatta Road, while <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/emails-reveal-doubts-on-westconnex-parramatta-road-revival-20140807-10121c">other reports</a> within the Roads and Maritime Services state that no significant reductions are likely to be seen?</p>
<p>It is very easy to chalk up some of these differences either to wildly overoptimistic developers potentially <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/westconnex-adviser-engineered-traffic-numbers-on-lane-cove-tunnel-disaster-20140811-102vqf.html">misleading themselves and others</a> to get a project approved. Similarly, it is sometimes alleged that feasibility studies might be influenced by political biases or <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/clover-moores-road-project-campaign-against-the-westconnex-is-sentencing-commuters-to-their-cars/story-fni0cx12-1227335226577">pre-established views</a> on the merits of roads or public transport schemes.</p>
<p>While these factors may well influence some decision making, one thing that is often missed in the reporting of such studies is the sheer complexity associated with analysing such networks. Assuming all roads are connected, the behaviour of a whole network can be hyper-sensitive to how individual parts, even seemingly minor ones, function.</p>
<p>A poor estimate of traffic flow in one section of a network can lead to hugely different behaviour across the whole system. Furthermore, even the simplest networks can have the potential to function in some extremely surprising and often counter-intuitive ways.</p>
<p>It is very easy to believe that if a traveller is offered the choice of two routes for a journey that the addition of a third choice should not worsen his/her travel time. If the new route is slower, the traveller could simply ignore the new route and make the same choice as before. </p>
<p>As the German mathematician <a href="http://www.uvm.edu/%7Epdodds/files/papers/others/2005/braess2005a.pdf">Dietrich Braess pointed out</a>, this is not always the case. Increasing the capacity of a network can, perhaps surprisingly, decrease the efficiency of journeys around it even without increasing the number of trips made, as was pointed out in <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-more-roads-really-mean-less-congestion-for-commuters-39508">a recent article</a>.</p>
<h2>The Braess’s Paradox</h2>
<p>To take a closer look at the reasoning behind this paradox, consider the case illustrated below. There are two major cities, labelled as the Start and End locations for a journey.</p>
<p>Travellers between the two cities have two choices of route, either via Town A or via Town B. The roads from Start to Town A and from Town B to End are both highways, which can handle any number of cars and allow them to make each leg of the journey in 105 minutes.</p>
<p>The roads from Start to Town B and from Town A to End are smaller roads which are slower when busy. When there are N cars on the road, each leg of the journey takes N minutes. There is an old road linking Town A to Town B with a journey time of 100 minutes. This road is sufficiently slow that no traveller from Start to Finish would choose a route that involves it.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81937/original/image-20150516-25432-e7kku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81937/original/image-20150516-25432-e7kku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81937/original/image-20150516-25432-e7kku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81937/original/image-20150516-25432-e7kku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81937/original/image-20150516-25432-e7kku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81937/original/image-20150516-25432-e7kku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81937/original/image-20150516-25432-e7kku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81937/original/image-20150516-25432-e7kku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Network illustrating Braess’s Paradox. Travel times along routes are listed in minutes.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If we assume that 100 cars are travelling at the same time from Start to End, then there is no advantage to going via Town A vs going via Town B. The traffic will split approximately 50/50 between the two routes and each car will do the journey in 155 minutes. This is the fastest route. In reality, the split of cars might not be exactly 50/50, but unless the ratio is heavily imbalanced, the average travel time across the network will be 155 minutes.</p>
<p>Suppose now that the network is “improved” by upgrading the road between Town A and Town B. Rather than taking 100 minutes to travel between the towns, it now takes only 2 minutes. </p>
<p>The fastest route now is for all drivers to go from Start to Town B in 100 minutes, take the 2 minute trip to Town A, then travel from Town A to End in another 100 minutes. This journey now takes 202 minutes – but that’s 47 minutes longer than on the old road layout. </p>
<p>There is no incentive for any driver to choose an alternative route. Opting for either of the 105 minute roads will only lengthen their trip. A driver can improve travel times for all others by selflessly choosing the slowest roads, but cannot help the overall network without suffering for it in the form of a slower journey. This, of course, is not an option which many will choose.</p>
<p>While the old road between Town A and Town B was hugely inefficient, this inefficiency actually ensured that the network as a whole remained reasonably efficient. It served to distribute traffic evenly between the two routes from Start to End. But by improving this relatively unimportant road, it simply redistributes traffic more unevenly and worsens the overall system.</p>
<p>Even more counter-intuitively, Braess’s Paradox is observed in simple physical systems as well as transport networks.</p>
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<p>The video (above) illustrates a system whereby a weight is suspended on two springs connected both in series (by an initially tense string) and in parallel (by initially slack strings). Removing the string which is in tension actually leads to the weight being lifted upwards.</p>
<p>This is actually a reverse of our traffic example. The distance the weight hangs represents the longer journey time of the traffic – remove the central string (the new road) and the hanging distance is reduced as is the journey time for the traffic.</p>
<h2>Paradox in action</h2>
<p>This paradox is not simply a mathematical quirk or one which can be neglected by network analysts. There are a number of examples where removing roads – rather than building news ones – has improved transport networks.</p>
<p>Probably the most famous example of this comes from South Korea. When the motorway network around Seoul <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2006/nov/01/society.travelsenvironmentalimpact">was reworked</a> to remove some of the 1960s-built roadways, the the result was significantly reduced transit times throughout the city. This was not because of fewer journeys through the city, rather a more efficient distribution of cars across the remaining network.</p>
<p>Similar phenomena have been observed during road closures in <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22129520.600-42nd-st-paradox-cull-the-best-to-make-things-better.html">New York City</a> in the United States and in <a href="http://www.rockefeller.edu/labheads/cohenje/PDFs/175CohenKellyJApplProb1990.pdf">Stuttgart</a> in Germany.</p>
<h2>What does this mean for transport models?</h2>
<p>As Braess’s Paradox points out, even a slight change to a relatively unimportant part of the whole network can lead to massive changes in travel times. While planning reports might focus on headline stories – new road X will cut travel times by Y minutes – the underlying modelling must be more robust and look at the uncertainty around such estimates.</p>
<p>As painstaking as this modelling may be, it is unquestionably something that needs to be answered as fully and as correctly as possible, admitting its own limitations.</p>
<p>A multi-billion dollar infrastructure project cannot afford to fail simply because someone didn’t do their sums correctly. The financial consequences of incorrect projections can be financially catastrophic.</p>
<p>Both Sydney’s <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/cross-city-tunnel-facing-receivership-again-20130909-2tgsk.html">Cross City Tunnel</a> and <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/toll-of-misery-as-tunnel-goes-under-20100120-mlsn.html">Lane Cove Tunnel</a> drove their initial operators into receivership. The developers of Brisbane’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-02-25/clem7-operator-placed-in-receivership/1958924">Clem Jones Tunnel fared no better</a>.</p>
<p>The issue is not just limited to Australia, of course. Of the <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=RAV5P-50UjEC&pg=PA22&lpg=PA22&dq=channel+tunnel+15.9+million&source=bl&ots=RYwi397-hS&sig=iHDgMHpOATFO5gFrXh88a2dsJMw&hl=en&sa=X&ei=pOVXVbDRHM2C8gXyjoHAAw&ved=0CCMQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=channel%20tunnel%2015.9%20million&f=false">15.9 million journeys expected</a> to be taken between London and Paris during the Channel Tunnel’s first year of operation, a mere 18% of those actually occurred.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Woodcock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The planning for any new road should include plenty of mathematical modelling. But getting the right numbers can be a challenge and there’s the odd paradox to deal with as well.Stephen Woodcock, Lecturer in mathematics, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.