tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/uk-elections-16825/articlesUK elections – The Conversation2024-03-19T18:17:34Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247862024-03-19T18:17:34Z2024-03-19T18:17:34ZDeepfakes are still new, but 2024 could be the year they have an impact on elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580733/original/file-20240308-30-tf2e5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3865%2C2582&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/deep-fake-ai-face-swap-video-2376208005">Tero Vesalainen / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Disinformation caught many people off guard during the <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2018/620230/EPRS_ATA(2018)620230_EN.pdf">2016 Brexit referendum</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07761-2">US presidential election</a>. Since then, a mini-industry has developed to analyse and counter it.</p>
<p>Yet despite that, we have entered 2024 – a year of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_elections_in_2024">more than 40 elections</a> worldwide – more fearful than ever about disinformation. In many ways, the problem is more challenging than it was in 2016. </p>
<p>Advances in technology since then are one reason for that, in particular the development that has taken place with synthetic media, otherwise known as deepfakes. It is increasingly difficult to know whether media has been fabricated by a computer or is based on something that really happened. </p>
<p>We’ve yet to really understand how big an impact deepfakes could have on elections. But a number of examples point the way to how they may be used. This may be the year when lots of mistakes are made and lessons learned.</p>
<p>Since the disinformation propagated around the votes in 2016, researchers have produced countless books and papers, journalists have retrained as <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/391-global-fact-checking-outlets-slow-growth-2022/">fact checking and verification experts</a>, governments have participated in <a href="https://www.igcd.org/">“grand committees”</a> and centres of excellence. Additionally, <a href="https://royalsociety.org/blog/2022/03/how-libraries-can-fight-disinformation/">libraries</a> have become the focus of resilience building strategies and a range of new bodies has emerged to provide analysis, training, and resources.</p>
<p>This activity hasn’t been fruitless. We now have a more nuanced understanding of disinformation as a social, psychological, political, and technological phenomenon. Efforts to support public interest journalism and the cultivation of critical thinking through education are also promising. Most notably, major tech companies <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/meta-set-up-team-counter-disinformation-ai-abuse-eu-elections-2024-02-26/">no longer pretend to be neutral platforms</a>. </p>
<p>In the meantime, policymakers have rediscovered their duty to <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/digital-services-act_en">regulate technology</a> in the public interest. </p>
<h2>AI and synthetic media</h2>
<p>Regulatory discussions have added urgency now that AI tools to create synthetic media – media partially or fully generated by computers – have gone mainstream. These deepfakes can be used to imitate the voice and appearance of real people. Deepfake media are impressively realistic and do not require much skill or resources. </p>
<p>This is the culmination of the wider digital revolution whereby successive technologies have made high-quality content production accessible to almost anyone. In contrast, regulatory structures and institutional standards for media were mostly designed in an era when only a minority of professionals had access to production.</p>
<p>Political deepfakes can take different forms. The recent Indonesian election saw a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/12/asia/suharto-deepfake-ai-scam-indonesia-election-hnk-intl/index.html">deepfake video “resurrecting” the late President Suharto</a>. This was ostensibly to encourage people to vote, but it was accused of being propaganda because it produced by the political party that he led.</p>
<p>Perhaps a more obvious use of deepfakes is to spread lies about political candidates. For example, <a href="https://ipi.media/slovakia-deepfake-audio-of-dennik-n-journalist-offers-worrying-example-of-ai-abuse/">fake AI-generated audio</a> released days before Slovakia’s parliamentary election in September 2023 attempted to portray the leader of Progressive Slovakia, Michal Šimečka, as having discussed with a journalist how to rig the vote.</p>
<p>Aside from the obvious effort to undermine a political party, it is worth noting how this deepfake, whose origin was unclear, exemplifies wider efforts to scapegoat minorities and demonise mainstream journalism. </p>
<p>Fortunately, in this instance, the audio was not high-quality, which made it quicker and easier for fact checkers to confirm its inauthenticity. However, the integrity of democratic elections cannot rely on the ineptidude of the fakers.</p>
<p>Deepfake audio technology is at a level of <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ai-audio-deepfakes-are-quickly-outpacing-detection/">sophistication that makes detection difficult</a>. Deepfake videos still struggle with certain human features, such as the representation of hands, but the technology is still young.</p>
<p>It is also important to note the Slovakian video was released during the final days of the election campaign. This is a prime time to launch disinformation and manipulation attacks because the targets and independent journalists have their hands full and therefore have little time to respond.</p>
<p>If it is also expensive, time-consuming, and difficult to investigate deep fakes, then it’s not clear how electoral commissions, political candidates, the media, or indeed the electorate should respond when potential cases arise. After all, a false accusation from a deepfake can be as troubling as the actual deepfake.</p>
<p>Another way deepfakes could be used to affect elections can be seen in the way they are already widely used to <a href="https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/04/22/a-lifelong-sentence-the-women-trapped-in-a-deepfake-porn-hell">harass and abuse</a> women and girls. This kind of sexual harassment fits an <a href="https://theconversation.com/online-abuse-could-drive-women-out-of-political-life-the-time-to-act-is-now-214301">existing pattern</a> of abuse that limits political participation by women. </p>
<h2>Questioning electoral integrity</h2>
<p>The difficulty is that it’s not yet clear exactly what impact deepfakes could have on elections. It’s very possible we could see other, similar uses of deepfakes in upcoming elections this year. And we could even see deepfakes used in ways not yet conceived of.</p>
<p>But it’s also worth remembering that not all disinformation is high-tech. There are other ways to attack democracy. Rumours and conspiracy theories about the integrity of the electoral process are an insidious trend. <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1abd7fde-20b4-11e9-a46f-08f9738d6b2b">Electoral fraud is a global concern</a> given that many countries are only democracies in name. </p>
<p>Clearly, social media platforms enable and drive disinformation in many ways, but it is a mistake to assume the problem begins and ends online. One way to think about the challenge of disinformation during upcoming elections is to think about the strength of the systems that are supposed to uphold democracy. </p>
<p>Is there an independent media system capable of providing high quality investigations in the public interest? Are there independent electoral administrators and bodies? Are there independent courts to adjudicate if necessary? </p>
<p>And is there sufficient commitment to democratic values over self interest
amongst politicians and political parties? This year of elections, we may well find out the answer to these questions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224786/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eileen Culloty coordinates the Ireland Hub of the European Digital Media Observatory, which is part-funded by the European Commission to undertake fact-checks, analysis, and media literacy.</span></em></p>As technology has advanced, AI-generated deepfakes have become more convincing.Eileen Culloty, Assistant Professor, School of Communications, Dublin City UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236662024-02-16T11:56:33Z2024-02-16T11:56:33ZWellingborough and Kingswood byelections: it’s never been this bad for the Conservatives, and it could still get worse<p>Writing about Conservative byelection calamities has become something of a standard Friday practice for me. But the party’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-68313404">defeat in Wellingborough</a> in Northamptonshire was particularly brutal. </p>
<p>The Tory vote share was a mere 25% and the Conservative to Labour swing of 28.5% was the second biggest in modern electoral history. Only <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Dudley_West_by-election">Dudley West in 1994</a>, with a 29.1% swing, was bigger. That result was the clearest first demonstration that Labour would oust the Conservatives by a huge majority at the 1997 general election. Politics is on repeat. </p>
<p>The loss of Kingswood in South Gloucestershire was on a smaller (16.4%) swing, but is equally ominous for Rishi Sunak. Apart from in 1992, whichever party Kingswood chose over the half-century of its existence (it is about to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-constituency-boundaries-are-being-redrawn-to-make-them-more-equal-but-it-wont-save-the-conservatives-221256">split</a> into other constituencies) also formed the government.</p>
<h2>An unprecedented year of byelections</h2>
<p>The Conservatives have an increasingly unhappy knack of creating unnecessary and unwelcome (for them) contests. Since 2022, the Conservatives have now lost six byelections to Labour, on an average swing of 21%. </p>
<p>Byelections used to be prompted mainly by deaths. During this parliamentary term however, nine contests in Conservative-held seats have been products of resignations, sometimes after behaviour by the resigning MP that could most generously be described as “controversial”. Another was forced by a recall petition and three necessitated by deaths. Eight of the nine byelections following resignations were lost, as was the recall petition contest and one of the three caused by death.</p>
<p>The Kingswood contest was at least precipitated by a resignation on principle. Chris Skidmore <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67895246">resigned</a> as an MP, angered by his government’s issuing of more oil and gas exploration licences.</p>
<p>Wellingborough’s byelection was caused by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/peter-bone-kicked-out-of-parliament-for-violence-and-sexual-misconduct-how-recall-petitions-work-220102">recall petition</a> lodged against Peter Bone under the Recall of MPs Act 2015. Bone, who was found to have bullied and exposed himself to a member of his staff, was suspended from the House of Commons for six weeks, triggering a petition signed by 13% of electors (10% is the threshold needed to hold a byelection). </p>
<p>Electors disillusioned by the Conservatives have had unprecedented opportunities to vent their displeasure. The net effect has been the biggest loss of seats during a parliamentary term since the 1960s. </p>
<h2>Looking towards a general election</h2>
<p>Is there any brighter news for the Conservatives? Amid the wreckage, the party could point to modest turnouts in both byelections, 38% in Wellingborough and 37% in Kingswood. But low byelection turnout is common. And the results are more a consequence of the Conservative vote dropping – Labour is not piling on the votes. </p>
<p>It is a huge leap of faith to assume the stay-at-homes were all Conservative-leaners who will show up at the general election. Conservative optimists could point to their Kingswood vote share being above that obtained in the constituency at general elections during the party’s wilderness years of 1997, 2001 and 2005. But the opposite was true with Thursday’s pitiful performance in Wellingborough.</p>
<p>The lingering Brexit bonus for the Conservatives may be neutered by the entry of Reform UK. Richard’s Tice’s outfit is no Ukip in its heyday or the Brexit Party, both of which offered a clear and popular core aim. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/02/16/reform-uk-wellingborough-kingswood-by-election-richard-tice/">Reform winning</a> 13% of the vote in Wellingborough and 10% in Kingswood is an achievement worth noting, if unlikely to be replicated come general election day. The Conservatives won three-quarters of the Brexit Leave vote in 2019. Reform UK will act as a repository for disaffected Brexiteer Tories in particular. </p>
<p>No party has ever won an election when trailing its main rival on the economy. Even without Thursday’s news that the UK fell into a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-68297420">recession</a> in 2023, the Conservatives are well behind Labour on economic stewardship. </p>
<p>It has been 45 years since the less popular leader of the “big two” won the election (Margaret Thatcher trailed James Callaghan in 1979) and Sunak <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48452-sunak-vs-starmer-2024-how-have-attitudes-changed-since-the-pm-took-office">trails</a> Keir Starmer, albeit not as badly as his party <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48607-voting-intention-con-21-lab-46-7-8-feb-2024">lags behind Labour</a>.</p>
<p>For the Conservatives, the one constant is that further trouble may be imminent. The party has removed the whip from Blackpool South MP, Scott Benton, who is appealing his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/14/blackpool-mp-scott-benton-faces-commons-suspension-over-lobbying-scandal">35-day suspension</a> from the Commons over a lobbying scandal. If Benton loses his appeal, a recall petition will follow, potentially triggering a byelection in a seat classed as marginal, but on all current evidence a seaside stroll for Labour. </p>
<h2>Rochdale embarrassment</h2>
<p>There could be a very brief respite for Sunak – who may now face pointless calls for a new Conservative leader – as we head towards the farce of the Rochdale byelection on February 29, a contest Labour has managed to lose before it really started. The party <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/rochdale-by-election-why-labour-cant-replace-azhar-ali-and-what-happens-if-he-wins-13070586">dropped support</a> for its official candidate, Azhar Ali, after leaked audio revealed Ali’s anti-Israel conspiracy theory comments regarding the October 7 Hamas attack. </p>
<p>Starmer’s initial ill-judged move to shore up Ali was absurd. Rochdale is thus high on the embarrassment scale for Labour, but as an issue affecting the outcome of the general election, it is negligible. </p>
<p>After an exceptional Brexit election in 2019 – no election in the past century has ever been dominated by a single issue to that extent – the 2024 general election will be decided by the economy, cost of living, perceptions of competence and leadership. Normal politics in other words. And on all the dials, Labour appears way ahead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223666/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Tonge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Disillusioned Conservative voters have had a string of opportunities to make their voices heard.Jonathan Tonge, Professor of Politics, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099022023-07-21T11:15:22Z2023-07-21T11:15:22ZByelection losses are terrible for the Conservatives – but there are glimmers of hope<p>It says much of the Conservatives’ current plight that a win of just 495 votes is being <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-66181315">hailed with relief</a> inside the party.</p>
<p>The Conservatives narrowly avoided a total wipeout in the July 20 trio of byelections, successfully defending Boris Johnson’s former seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip with the election of Steve Tuckwell. The unpopularity of London Labour Mayor’s Sadiq Khan’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66264893">expansion of the ultra low emissions zone</a> (Ulez) undoubtedly contributed to the Conservative defence of Uxbridge.</p>
<p>But the party’s losses in Somerton and Frome in Somerset, and Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, are notable. </p>
<p>So far in this parliamentary term, the Conservatives have had to defend nine seats. They have now held three. </p>
<p>The win in Uxbridge followed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/03/old-bexley-and-sidcup-byelection-louie-french-mp-tories-retain-seat">Old Bexley and Sidcup</a> in 2021, after the death of former cabinet minister James Brokenshire. The other was in <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-60254176">Southend West</a> in 2022, a race uncontested by the other main parties following the murder of previous MP David Amess.</p>
<p>Of the six losses, four have been to the Liberal Democrats, on a staggering average 29% swing. The byelection in Somerton and Frome, after the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941710">resignation</a> of Conservative MP David Warburton following allegations of misconduct, marked another win for the Liberal Democrats.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-resignation-why-rishi-sunak-cant-afford-to-lose-more-than-one-of-three-impending-byelections-207588">Boris Johnson resignation: why Rishi Sunak can't afford to lose more than one of three impending byelections</a>
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<h2>Historic Labour win</h2>
<p>Selby and Ainsty was the Conservatives’ second byelection loss to Labour during this term, and it was significant.</p>
<p>The result was worse for the Conservatives than their previous loss to Keir Starmer’s party in <a href="https://theconversation.com/wakefield-and-tiverton-and-honiton-byelections-even-boris-johnson-loyalists-will-now-be-worried-for-the-next-election-185722">Wakefield</a>. That saw “only” a 12.6% swing to Labour, barely guaranteed to give the opposition an overall majority. </p>
<p>But Selby and Ainsty was one of the Conservatives’ safest northern seats, a 20,137 majority lost on a huge 23.7% swing. Voters seem to have been unimpressed by their MP, former Cabinet Office minister Nigel Adams, standing down when he did not receive a peerage. He’s now been replaced by Labour’s Keir Mather, who at 25 is the youngest member of parliament. </p>
<p>Turnout in Selby was down by 20,000. The Conservatives can hope that most of those 20,000 were their followers who will turn up on general election day, but it’s a leap of faith.</p>
<h2>Echoes from history</h2>
<p>This is all reminiscent of when the Conservatives last crashed out of office in 1997. During the 1992-97 <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-information-office/m14.pdf">parliament</a>, the Conservatives lost all eight seats they defended in byelections: four to the Liberal Democrats, three to Labour and one to the SNP. </p>
<p>The average swing from the Conservatives to Labour and to the Liberal Democrats then was a whopping 23% – almost identical to the Selby and Ainsty swing – a clear portent of the looming and catastrophic Conservative defeat in 1997, their worst ever. </p>
<p>The Conservatives are now braced once again for the worst. Thirty-six MPs, including six former cabinet ministers, have announced they will be standing down at the next election, even though the contest is surely more than a year away. </p>
<p>For a while, some clung to the hope that Sunak and Starmer’s popularity ratings were close enough to give them a chance. No leader trailing on the question of “who do you think would make the best prime minister?” has won a general election since Margaret Thatcher in 1979. But Sunak now <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/710316/prime-minister-voting-intention-in-great-britain/">trails the Labour</a> leader by ten percentage points.</p>
<h2>What the future holds for the Conservatives</h2>
<p>The bad news is far from over for Sunak. It seems highly likely the eight-week <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66261825">suspension</a> from the Commons of Conservative MP Chris Pincher for allegedly groping two men will trigger a byelection in Tamworth this autumn. Under the Recall of MPs Act, only 10% of constituents need to sign a petition to generate the contest. And we saw what happened to the 20,000 Conservative majority in Selby. </p>
<p>An autumn byelection would be most unwelcome for a Conservative Party attempting a relaunch at its conference in Manchester in October. And at some point, Nadine Dorries will end the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/14/nadine-dorries-failure-to-resign-officially-as-mp-frustrates-sunaks-attempt-to-reset-tories">longest resignation in political history</a> and step down from her Mid-Bedfordshire seat. Cue another byelection. </p>
<p>Still, there are three glimmers of hope, however faint, for the current government.</p>
<p>One is that inflation is finally <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/will-inflation-in-the-uk-keep-rising">beginning to fall</a>, which may help reduce the current level of strikes. More working days were lost in the final quarter of last year than at any time since the 1980s. </p>
<p>Two is that the Conservatives have one final budget with which to put more money in people’s pockets. While tax cuts might be too blatant an electioneering ploy, we might expect a rise in tax thresholds.</p>
<p>Three is that the issue shaping the Uxbridge and South Ruislip result shows the problem Keir Starmer has in developing policies. The Labour leader’s only big new idea at last year’s party conference in Liverpool was a “new green economy” and he has been in retreat from it since. Everyone agrees with green policies until they are affected by them, and the reaction to Ulez in Uxbridge suggests elections may still trump the environment.</p>
<p>Sunak insists the result in Selby shows the general election is not a <a href="https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/defiant-rishi-sunak-says-uxbridge-general-election-not-done-deal/">“done deal”</a>. But the expectation remains overwhelmingly of a Labour government in autumn 2024. The debate is whether it will have an overall majority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209902/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Tonge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More byelections could be on the way.Jonathan Tonge, Professor of Politics, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2044132023-05-03T11:24:25Z2023-05-03T11:24:25ZCan Rishi Sunak save the Tories? Voting behaviour over time suggests it will take more than personal appeal to win the next election<p>One of the key findings of research into elections is that there is a close relationship between the popularity of party leaders and support for their parties in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261379412001394">elections</a>. The reason for this relates to how people make up their minds when voting. Many people consider issues or draw on their sense of attachment to a political party, but most look at the party leaders. </p>
<p>The leader personifies the party for many voters, particularly those who are confused about policies and don’t feel attached to any party. They use a simple rule of thumb: if they like a leader then they are inclined to vote for his or her party.</p>
<p>Colleagues and I explain this reasoning more fully in our new book, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/brexit-britain/E109559E4EA08FA44274DBEB3A2CD06A">Brexit Britain</a>. Faced with policy choices the consequences of which are difficult if not impossible to forecast, voters rely on their impressions of competing party leaders for assistance. This means that a good deal of voting is about who is in charge as much as about the policies advocated by a party.</p>
<p>Recent polling shows that Rishi Sunak is doing much better than his predecessor Liz Truss. YouGov found in March that that 34% thought he was doing well while <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/%20topics/politics/%20trackers/rishi-sunak-prime-minister-approval">49% thought he was doing badly</a>.</p>
<p><strong>The Relationship between perceptions that the prime minister is doing well and Conservative vote intentions 2019 to 2023:</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A chart showing that the Conservative Party was more popular under Boris Johnson than Liz Truss." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522660/original/file-20230424-28-nf3jwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522660/original/file-20230424-28-nf3jwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522660/original/file-20230424-28-nf3jwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522660/original/file-20230424-28-nf3jwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522660/original/file-20230424-28-nf3jwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522660/original/file-20230424-28-nf3jwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522660/original/file-20230424-28-nf3jwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Johnson carried his party, Truss dragged it down.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">YouGov</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At first sight this does not appear to be a strong endorsement of the prime minister, but it is a massive improvement on his predecessor’s performance. When asked the same question about Truss In October 2022 only 11% thought she was doing well and <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers%20/liz-truss-approval-rating">71% thought she was doing badly</a>.</p>
<p>The past two elections have shown a close relationship between how people perceive the prime minister and whether they intend to vote for the Conservative MP in their constituency. Boris Johnson was popular and led a party enjoying strong voting intentions. Truss was not, and led a party that was also losing popularity. </p>
<p>This correlation between Conservative vote intentions and perceptions of the prime minister’s performance was very strong. Where a perfect one-to-one association between two variables would have a score of one and no association at all would have a score of zero, this correlation has a score of 0.80.</p>
<p>This raises an intriguing question. If Sunak succeeds in delivering on the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-outlines-his-five-key-priorities-for-2023">five priorities he set out at the start of his premiership</a> and so becomes more popular, will this help the Conservatives to win the next general election?</p>
<h2>Past, present, future</h2>
<p>It is of course important to remember that the correlation between Sunak’s popularity and voting intentions is not the same as a causal relationship. Prime ministerial popularity might drive voting support, but it is equally possible that the relationship runs the other way round. </p>
<p>That said, it is possible to get a handle on this by looking at correlations over time. If there is a strong correlation between Conservative voting intentions this month and the popularity of the prime minister last month, the causal link must run from PM popularity to vote intentions and not the other way round (because what happens now can’t influence what happened a month ago). </p>
<p>In this way we can untangle the causal links. This approach was introduced by the late Clive Granger, an economist who won the Nobel prize for <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1912791">this and other work</a>. </p>
<p>On the other hand, if past voting intentions strongly correlate with the current popularity of the prime minister this suggests the causal link runs in the opposite direction. In both cases we are looking at the effects of the past on the present.</p>
<p>The data show us that there is clearly two-way causation between the two, so they interact with each other. However, the effect of Conservative voting on PM popularity is stronger than the effect of PM popularity on voting. We know this because voting has a longer impact on popularity than the other way round.</p>
<p>This means that if Rishi Sunak does succeed in delivering on his promises and becomes more popular this will help to boost the Conservative vote. However, given that currently the Conservatives are between 15 and 20 points behind Labour in voting intentions he is going to need his party to become more popular for reasons other than his personal approval ratings to have a chance of winning the next election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204413/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC. </span></em></p>The prime minister is popular, his party is not. Which is more important as we head towards the next election?Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2036502023-04-17T10:57:52Z2023-04-17T10:57:52ZCan Jeremy Corbyn go it alone in Islington North? What the evidence tells us<p>Labour leader <a href="https://www.annblack.co.uk/nec-meeting-28-march-2023/">Keir Starmer’s decision</a> to block his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn from standing as a candidate for his party in the next election creates a dilemma. Corbyn, who has been the member of parliament for London’s Islington North <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islington_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Members_of_Parliament">since 1983</a> needs to decide whether to stand aside or run as an independent.</p>
<p>We are currently in a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/28/starmer-accused-of-behaving-like-putin-as-corbyn-blocked-from-standing-for-labour">period of hints and speculation</a>. In some respects, Corbyn doesn’t need to make a firm decision yet, but waiting too long risks leaving him short of campaign funds and infrastructure. </p>
<p>He is used to working a safe constituency seat and has spent the past couple of elections travelling elsewhere, as a party leader must. Corbyn will therefore need to think seriously about the nuts and bolts of campaigning alone. But there are <a href="https://novaramedia.com/2023/02/17/corbyn-blocked-what-do-his-constituents-think/">voices urging him on</a> and a belief by some that <a href="https://novaramedia.com/2022/11/22/does-jeremy-corbyn-need-the-labour-party/">he could succeed</a>.</p>
<p>To some, independent candidates are innovative and unconventional. They have also been seen as “dreamers, half-baked and hopeless” according to Dawn Brancati, whose <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/10.1017/S0022381608080675.pdf">2008 research</a> looked at the fate of independent candidates around the world. </p>
<p>She found a huge variation between those countries in which independent candidates were plentiful and doing well, such as Pakistan, and those in which there were few or no candidates and where they generally did badly, such as the UK and the US. Key to success or failure was the electoral system, both in terms of getting on the ballot in the first place and in winning the race.</p>
<h2>The case against standing</h2>
<p>The relative lack of UK MPs elected as independents could tell Corbyn that an Islington North bid would be a poor move. There has been <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/election-97-sleaze-showdown-at-knutsford-corral-1265997.html">Martin Bell</a>, who took the seat of Tatton in 1997, and <a href="https://members.parliament.uk/member/1472/career">Richard Taylor</a> who won by a landslide in Wyre Forest in 2001. </p>
<p>But when three former Conservatives stood as independents in their own seats in 2019 after losing the party whip for rebelling over Brexit, none prospered. And Labour’s Frank Field came a <a href="https://democracy.wirral.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=75">poor second in Birkenhead</a> when he left the party and stood as an independent. </p>
<p>The contrast at play in these cases is stark. The newcomers Bell and Taylor succeeded while the experienced politicians failed. The existing MPs knew their constituencies and had name recognition. Surely they would have received an incumbency bounce for just that reason? </p>
<p>Sadly for them, however, the incumbency benefit or personal vote is often greatly overstated. <a href="http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/56179/">Research has shown</a> that it accounts for up to 8% of the vote but can be considerably lower. This is not enough in a seat used to voting heavily for one party.</p>
<p>Why did Bell and Taylor succeed? They were high-profile “cause candidates”. Taylor, a doctor, was highlighting the health service. Bell was the anti-corruption candidate after the cash-for-questions scandal. Some other parties helped the independents on their way, with the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/vote2001/results_constituencies/constituencies/654.stm">Liberal Democrats standing aside</a> in Wyre Forest and Labour also leaving the field <a href="http://electionhub.co.uk/uk/1997/const/tatton">in Tatton</a>.</p>
<p>So even if Corbyn doesn’t have enough incumbency bonus, could he be a cause candidate? The potential may be there but not if the decision is framed as Corbyn hitting back over internal Labour decisions. That central cause with mass appeal still needs to be found.</p>
<h2>The case for standing</h2>
<p>There is evidence of independents doing well in parts of the UK political system beyond general elections. <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/lisa/6987#tocto1n3">Ken Livingstone’s</a> high profile and successful run for mayor of London, after being blocked by Labour, is a clear example of breaking the mould. </p>
<p>Early contests for elected mayors elsewhere saw independents, such as Bristol’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Ferguson_(politician)#Mayor_of_Bristol">George Ferguson</a>, do well. And in the first police and crime commissioner elections in 2012, there were 12 independents elected – more than <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1467-923X.12181">a quarter of those elected</a>.</p>
<p>There seem to be two factors at play here. First, mayoral elections, in particular, lend themselves to candidate-centred contests. Voters are, after all, meant to be electing a strong, accountable individual. </p>
<p>Second, the election system for these contests has, up to now, been the <a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/types-of-voting-system/supplementary-vote/">supplementary vote</a>. Voters have had a first and a second choice. That makes a difference. </p>
<p>It is easy to see how an independent might attract the second choice of a party supporter and end up breaking through as a result when everything is counted up. As Brancati says, the electoral system is a key factor.</p>
<p>The supplementary vote is no longer used in mayoral races, however. And even before that change, independents were finding it increasingly difficult to win. Ferguson was roundly beaten by Labour in 2016, for example.</p>
<h2>The verdict</h2>
<p>All this shows that the prospects for Corbyn are not great. In an election campaign, he would struggle for media time. He would need to build a campaign machine. He would need to find a core, compelling message to persuade voters to depart from their usual Labour support. </p>
<p>Labour of course will not stand aside and watch. We already know the party has decided that <a href="https://www.annblack.co.uk/nec-meeting-28-march-2023/">there will be no pacts or standing asides</a>. And even were these hurdles to be overcome, he’d still be running in a first-past-the-post system. </p>
<p>Corbyn’s supporters will feel Labour in general, and Starmer in particular, have treated the former leader very unfairly. And many may agree. This is not, however, enough to deliver ballot box success.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203650/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paula Keaveney is a member of the Liberal Democrats</span></em></p>Newcomers have in fact proven much more successful at running as independents than big name politicians.Paula Keaveney, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Edge Hill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1978232023-01-24T17:49:02Z2023-01-24T17:49:02ZScottish elections: young people more likely to vote if they started at 16 – new study<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505614/original/file-20230120-24-v0xb3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C0%2C4351%2C2865&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A healthy democracy needs widespread, equal voting.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/election-scotland-voting-ballot-box-hand-735158005">andriano.cz / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around the world, interest in lowering the voting age is growing. Major efforts to change the laws are underway in <a href="https://vote16.ca/">Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.makeit16.org.nz/">New Zealand</a>, while Germany recently lowered the voting age for European parliament elections. </p>
<p>But so far, there have been few opportunities to learn from countries that have done it successfully. Austria and a handful of Latin American countries have had more than a decade of votes at 16. Others, like Estonia (for local elections), Malta and some states in Germany have joined the effort in recent years.</p>
<p>Scotland lowered its voting age to 16 ahead of the independence referendum in 2014, and for all Scottish elections starting in 2015. After the 2014 election, <a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/why-ruth-davidson-supports-votes-at-16/">politicians</a>, <a href="https://www.democraticaudit.com/2014/08/29/there-is-much-that-can-be-learned-from-scotlands-decision-to-lower-the-voting-age-for-the-independence-referendum/">analysts</a> and the <a href="https://www.democraticaudit.com/2014/05/09/scottish-votes-at-16/">Scottish Youth Parliament</a> hailed the decision to lower the age as a <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-32541-1_7">success</a>. </p>
<p>Newly enfranchised young people voted in <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/Scottish-independence-referendum-report.pdf">greater numbers</a> than slightly older peers. Social class differences in voting habits were <a href="https://doi.org/10.3366/scot.2022.0407">much less pronounced</a> among 16- and 17-year-olds in Scotland, than among older Scottish voters and young people in the rest of the UK. Even the Scottish Conservatives <a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/why-ruth-davidson-supports-votes-at-16/">dropped their initial opposition</a> and endorsed a younger voting age.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/votes-at-16-in-scotland-study">new study</a> reveals which of these patterns have lasted, by examining voter turnout in the 2021 Scottish parliament elections, seven years after the age limit was changed. Scotland is now one of the <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-32541-1_2">small set of longer-term case studies</a> on the outcomes of lowering the voting age.</p>
<p>Typically, electoral data shows that turnout is low when voters are in the early years of adulthood, and increases in their mid to late twenties. But 16- and 17-year-olds, when enfranchised, tend to vote in greater numbers than 18- to 24-year-olds. <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/Scottish-independence-referendum-report.pdf">This was the case in Scotland in 2014-15</a> (when the voting age was lowered). Now we know that this habit has lasted. </p>
<p>We looked at the 2021 election data for the cohorts of voters who were first enfranchised at age 16. Indeed, they continued to turn out in higher numbers, even into their twenties, than young people who attained the right to vote later, at age 18.</p>
<p>In other words, if you give people the right to vote earlier in life, they appear more likely to make voting a habit.</p>
<h2>Voting inequality</h2>
<p>Among the youngest voters in the 2021 election (16- and 17-year-old first-timers), social class made little to no difference in young people’s likelihood to vote. However, this was not the case for young people in their twenties. For them, turnout was unequal across social classes. </p>
<p>Young adults with parents from higher social classes turned out more often in the 2021 elections than those from lower social classes (except among 16- and 17-year-olds). Apparently, once voters reached the age of 18, and indeed throughout their twenties, the inequalities emerged again, regardless of when they were enfranchised.</p>
<p>The UK has some of the most pressing political inequality in Europe, particularly among young people. In a major 2010 <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED512412">study of 36 countries</a>, England had one of the largest gaps in political understanding between school students from lower and higher occupational status households (topped only by Bulgaria). Inequalities that lead to uneven turnout in elections are a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2952255">problem for democracy</a>, because non-voters tend to be less well-represented in the politics that result from an election. </p>
<h2>Making change last</h2>
<p>Our findings tell us that enfranchising people younger might help reduce voting inequality in the short term. But the impact doesn’t seem to last longer than a few years. Families and the resources, attitudes, and political behaviour they pass on to children influence whether or not young people decide to vote once they are allowed to do so. We see that effect in our research.</p>
<p>The one factor that can offset some of these family inequalities is good civic education in the classroom. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13676261.2018.1450968">Research shows that students</a> who engage with social and political issues through civic education are more likely to vote in elections. </p>
<p>Our study confirms that this still matters to young people in Scotland into early adulthood. Young people aged 16 to 31 who recalled taking a course where political issues were discussed were more likely to vote than people who hadn’t taken such a course. </p>
<p>Not everyone has the same quality or access to civic education. Local authorities decide on the nature and extent of the delivery of civic education, which often takes place in Scotland’s <a href="https://www.jsse.org/index.php/jsse/article/view/5853">modern studies courses</a>.</p>
<p>When resources are constrained, some schools cannot afford to dedicate equal amounts of time to civic education. This results in a postcode lottery for young people, and some will miss out on the support they might need to exercise their right to vote. </p>
<p>It’s not enough to make sure that young people keep voting – a healthy democracy needs the habit to stick equally for young people of all backgrounds.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197823/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The data collection for this project was funded through a grant from the Scottish Government.
The analyses presented were carried out independently by the authors of the study and all views
expressed are solely the views of the authors.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The data collection for this project was funded through a grant from the Scottish Government. </span></em></p>If you give people the right to vote earlier in life, they are more likely to build a lasting habit.Jan Eichhorn, Senior Lecturer in Social Policy, The University of EdinburghChristine Huebner, Lecturer in Quantitative Social Sciences, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1944832022-11-18T16:30:23Z2022-11-18T16:30:23ZVoter suppression: how democracies around the world are using new rules to make it harder to vote<p>Attempts to stop voters getting to polling stations, increase waiting times to place a ballot or add restrictions on who can vote are becoming issues in democracies around the world.</p>
<p>Techniques vary, but the intention is the same – to make voting more difficult. In the recent US midterm elections, lines at polling stations in the US state of Georgia, left <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/17/georgia-early-voting-midterm-elections-waits">citizens queueing</a> for hours, often without access to seating or water, following the introduction <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/26/politics/georgia-voting-law-food-drink-ban-trnd/index.html">of new rules</a>.</p>
<p>Under those laws, the number of places where people could drop off their ballots was reduced, and their opening times restricted. For instance, the number of drop boxes in <a href="https://www.gpb.org/news/2022/07/27/new-georgia-voting-law-reduced-ballot-drop-box-access-in-places-used-them-most">four counties in Georgia</a> with high numbers of African-American residents was cut from 107 to 25.</p>
<p>Voter suppression <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/voter-suppression-haunted-united-states-since-founded">has a long history</a> in the United States that stretches back to colonial times. Last year, the American Civil Liberties Union said that more than 48 states have recently tried to introduce more than 400 anti-voter bills. Efforts to suppress voting rights included voter ID laws, similar to the UK’s<a href="https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3020"> Election Act</a> 2022. Other measures mentioned included purging voter rolls at district level and what it called systemic disenfranchisement aimed to “disproportionately impact people of colour, students, older people, <a href="https://www.aclu.org/news/civil-liberties/block-the-vote-voter-suppression-in-2020">and people with disabilities</a>”.</p>
<p>Over the past two years, US states have passed 28 bills increasing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/28/state-voting-rights-election-laws-police-suppression">election crime legislation</a>. Conspiracy stories of a stolen election, fuelled by Republican lawmakers after President Donald Trump lost the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/03/us/politics/republican-election-objectors.html">2020 presidential election</a> gave many of these laws momentum.</p>
<p>Georgia’s state-wide investigative agency, for example, has been <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-bill-sb441-elections-bureau-of-investigations/">given subpoena powers</a> to seize election-related documents, while New Hampshire’s state attorney general is required to investigate any allegations of election fraud by election officials. And it is not just officials that are being targeted. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-election-risk-index/state/south-carolina-voting-laws/">In South Carolina</a>, fraudulent voting or incorrectly registering to vote has become a felony with a prison sentence of up to five years.</p>
<p>Electoral rights for US citizens were enshrined in the Voting Rights Act (1965). The act, signed into law by President Lyndon Johnson, was inspired by the civil rights movement campaign that culminated in Martin Luther King Jr.’s <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/selma-montgomery-marches-and-1965-voting-rights-act">historic march</a> between Selma and Montgomery, Alabama. The Voting Rights Act made it unlawful for local, state <a href="https://naacp.org/find-resources/history-explained/legislative-milestones/voting-rights-act-1965">or federal governments</a> to impede people voting due to their ethnicity or colour. But over the last decade, after a number of Supreme Court rulings, the act <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/27/supreme-court-voting-rights-act-00042478">has been weakened</a>. This has allowed states to pass election laws without first clearing them with the Supreme Court.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/voters-largely-reject-election-deniers-as-secretaries-of-state-but-the-partisan-battle-for-election-administration-will-continue-194137">Voters largely reject election deniers as secretaries of state – but the partisan battle for election administration will continue</a>
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<p>But it’s not just the US which has been changing its rules on voting. The UK’s Elections Act 2022, which became law in April, is likely to have a substantial impact on voting habits. Arguably, the most significant is that voters will now need to produce photo ID from a short list <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/our-views-and-research/elections-act/requirement-show-id-polling-stations">when they vote</a> in British general elections and English local elections. The government estimates those without the necessary photo ID are around 2% of the population, critics say that <a href="https://bylinetimes.com/2022/11/07/voter-id-its-far-worse-than-any-us-state/">it is nearer 6%</a>.</p>
<p>The British government <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/greater-protections-for-voters-as-governments-elections-bill-achieves-royal-assent">claimed</a> that such measures will protect voters from electoral fraud and “<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/voter-identification-at-polling-stations-and-the-new-voter-card/protecting-the-integrity-of-our-elections-voter-identification-at-polling-stations-and-the-new-voter-card">protect the integrity of democracy in the UK</a>”. But some local election officers are worried by the speed the government is implementing these changes. This, along with lack of clarity over the rules, have led to concern that thousands of people could be disenfranchised and that election results could be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/10/delay-uk-voter-id-checks-or-face-election-result-challenges-officials-warn">challenged in courts</a>.</p>
<p>The UK government hopes that the provision of a free elector ID card will be enough to avoid what it estimated to be 2.1 million people who lack the necessary identification from being disenfranchised. But researchers have identified problems in the US with the provision of <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/challenge-obtaining-voter-identification">a similar type of free ID card</a>, including long distances of travel required to get them.</p>
<p>Lloyd Russell-Moyle, a Labour MP for Brighton, said that the type of government-accepted ID excluded young voters. <a href="https://bylinetimes.com/2022/11/07/voter-id-its-far-worse-than-any-us-state/">He argued that</a> there was a clear element of voter suppression, while Baroness Natalie Bennett called the Election Act “voter suppression straight out of the <a href="https://bylinetimes.com/2022/11/07/voter-id-its-far-worse-than-any-us-state/">American right’s playbook</a>”.</p>
<h2>Threats to democracy</h2>
<p>And it’s not just in the northern hemisphere where voter suppression is on the agenda. In the recent Brazilian elections between incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and challenger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, federal highway police (PRF) were accused of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-highway-police-blockades-fan-voter-suppression-fears-2022-10-30/">suppressing supporters of Lula</a> through increasing numbers of roadside searches on election day. The PRF, an organisation close to Bolsonaro, had set up roadblocks in areas where Lula had considerable backing. These operations, according to the PRF, were to “guarantee the mobility, safety and fight crime on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/30/brazil-highway-police-vote-suppression/">federal highways</a>”.</p>
<p>Brazil’s senior election chief Alexandre de Moraes ordered the PRF to cease all vehicle searches, <a href="https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2022/10/30/alleged-voter-suppression-brazil/">which had increased by 80%</a> , until the election was over. According to reports, the PRF had stopped over 550 public buses as it claimed Moraes’ order did not apply to all <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/30/world/americas/brazil-voters-police-elections.html">federal highway operations</a>.</p>
<p>This was the latest attempt by Bolsonaro to undermine democratic institutions. Echoing Trump’s claims, Bolsonaro repeatedly alleged voter fraud and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/human-rights-watch-says-bolsonaro-threat-democracy-brazil-report-2022-01-13/">attacked the judiciary</a> in order to strengthen his own position. Other reports have accused Bolsonaro of “promoting the large scale militarisation of his government and <a href="https://theloop.ecpr.eu/a-second-bolsonaro-term-could-be-the-point-of-no-return-for-brazilian-democracy/">public distrust in the voting system</a>”. Having lost the election, it is still <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/31/americas/brazil-election-result-explainer-intl-latam/index.html">unclear whether Bolsonaro</a> will concede to his opponent.</p>
<p>And there’s other potential threats ahead. In the US midterms while there was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/15/republican-election-deniers-lose-midterm-elections">a widespread pushback</a> against “election denier” candidates who spoke about reforming the US voting system and argued falsely that the last presidential election was “stolen”, significantly some are taking office. These include the secretaries of state in <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/beating-election-deniers-bipartisan-group-secretaries-state-talk/story?id=93289117">Alabama, Indiana and Wyoming</a>, who are likely to be the top election administrators in each state. These newly elected officials will be in powerful positions to oversee and reject ballots.</p>
<p>Any government, no matter the ideological persuasion, that deliberately excludes its potential opponents, risks undermining a nation’s democracy. Sadly, it appears that many sitting politicians around the globe appear not to care about that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194483/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Laws making it more difficult to vote are being introduced around the democratic world, an expert says.Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1913772022-09-29T16:08:40Z2022-09-29T16:08:40ZTruss’s mini-budget chaos is unsettling an already-fractured Conservative Party – but is removing her worth the risk?<p>Prime Minister Liz Truss entered office with the less-than-ideal backdrop of a cost of living crisis and war in Ukraine. The <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/north-america/united-states/pounds-collapse-disaster-us-breaks-impact-will-felt-afield">economic turmoil</a> her government has waged is already creating more problems for her. </p>
<p>Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng laid out their plan for growth, outlining tax cuts and policies that have led to the pound falling against virtually all the world’s currencies, and are likely to fuel the cost of living crisis, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63051702">according to the IMF</a>.</p>
<p>With a 71-seat majority, Truss has the power to comfortably pass a range of legislation ahead of the next election, however controversial. But her actions are already generating discomfort and even dissent within Conservative ranks. </p>
<p>Kwarteng is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/25/kwarteng-uk-economy-must-expect-more-tax-cuts-and-deregulation">facing questions</a> about the legitimacy of the mini-budget and of a radical change of course that doesn’t have a mandate from the electorate. Truss is only in No 10 by the grace of Conservative party members and wasn’t even selected by a majority of her MPs. </p>
<p>There have already been <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liz-truss-pound-no-confidence-letters-b2175293.html">reports</a> of letters of no confidence submitted to the influential 1922 committee amid fears that the Conservatives have lost their economic credibility. Opponents feel that alternatives to Truss exist. </p>
<p>Some have pointed out that her leadership rival, former chancellor Rishi Sunak, warned against the measures Truss has now laid out. Replacing her is unlikely at this stage for several reasons, but keeping her means the Conservatives will go into the next election with a leader who has compromised her position within a matter of days.</p>
<p>Conservative MPs are right to be worried. Their constituents feel they are now paying high prices for an ideologically regressive economic policy. And Conservative MPs in the red wall will be putting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/24/red-wall-seats-are-being-put-at-risk-by-cavalier-tax-cuts-liz-truss-warned">even more pressure</a> on Truss. </p>
<p>They fear the growth plan will be seen as the new government prioritising the south-east over northern and Midland constituencies, and abandoning promises to “level up”. This is especially risky for Truss, given that her predecessor’s commitments to public spending were what earned Conservatives some of those seats in 2019.</p>
<p>Truss’s insistence on the much debunked <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/23/tax-cuts-rich-trickle-down/">“trickle-down” economics</a> follows from claims that low taxation helps improve British prosperity. But the costs associated will mean less spending for Conservative Party commitments to invest in education, infrastructure and technology – other avenues seen as vital to national prosperity.</p>
<h2>Replacing Truss is a gamble – so is keeping her</h2>
<p>Truss took office in a weak position, having received the <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-conservative-leadership-result-vote-smaller-share-membership-b1023199.html">lowest level</a> of support afforded to any Conservative PM since party members became eligible to vote in leadership contests. Truss received just 57% of all members’ votes, the next lowest was Iain Duncan Smith in 2001 who polled 61%, and Johnson received 66%. </p>
<p>Unlike other leaders who took over midway through a parliament, Truss has also not received opinion poll bounces and is facing increasing scrutiny over the process she went through to become prime minister.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnsons-claim-of-a-mandate-from-the-people-isnt-accurate-heres-how-prime-ministers-really-get-power-186615">Boris Johnson's claim of a 'mandate' from the people isn't accurate – here's how prime ministers really get power</a>
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<p>Though Truss’s accession – “chosen” by just 81,326 voters from a wider electorate of 46.5 million – can be seen as anti-democratic or illegitimate, it is not unusual in British political history.</p>
<p>Since the end of the first world war, the UK has changed its prime minister more often than not outside general elections. Truss is the 13th PM to assume office without winning the preceding general election (Theresa May and Boris Johnson were in the same boat). </p>
<p>Leadership changes are often met with calls from the opposition for a new election, so the leader can obtain a fresh mandate from voters. These are rarely heeded. Only Anthony Eden called an immediate general election after taking office in 1955, and Johnson called one a few months after he became PM.</p>
<p>Of the last five prime ministers to assume office part way through a parliamentary term, John Major is the only Conservative to see out the full term – though both Labour PMs, Callaghan and Brown, also did. All three called an election five years after the previous one, with only Major winning in 1992. </p>
<p>Theresa May and Boris Johnson both called for early general elections. May lost the slim Conservative majority won in the 2015 election, while Johnson obtained an 80-seat majority in 2019 (though this didn’t protect him from being removed three years later).</p>
<p>The controversial and drawn-out process of the Truss-Sunak leadership race, however, may give Truss some breathing space. Would the Conservative Party really wish to spend another prolonged period changing leadership amid an economic crisis? Over two months passed between Johnson stepping down and Truss stepping in. Giving her time to rectify the problems she has caused may be preferable to another period of uncertainty.</p>
<p>Any drive for change would have to emanate from within the Conservative Party. Opinion polls, combined with economic crises make a snap general election unlikely, and Truss’s large majority means she would likely survive a no-confidence vote in the House of Commons. </p>
<p>Safe from opposition measures, Truss does not need to call an election for another two years and may be gambling that she can mitigate the current economic fallout and unite the party before 2024. But given the events of the last week, this may be a gamble the country can’t afford.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191377/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Kirkland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The economic turmoil from Liz Truss’s growth plan is causing unease among Conservative MPs.Christopher Kirkland, Lecturer in Politics, York St John UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1890082022-09-06T12:00:37Z2022-09-06T12:00:37ZIs the UK heading into an election? Five signs to look out for in the first few weeks under Prime Minister Liz Truss<p>Prime ministers who ascend to office between general elections are often egotistically keen to secure a personal mandate rather than relying on the achievements of their predecessors. Naturally, then, many are now wondering if newly installed Prime Minister Liz Truss will call a general election. </p>
<p>She must do so before the end of January 2025 and in her first speech as party leader she indicated that she intended to lead her party to victory “in 2024” but the date is far from set in stone. She will be thinking carefully about whether pulling the trigger soon would be a better option than holding off until the last minute. </p>
<p>Here are five signs to look out for that might indicate whether an early election is a likely prospect. </p>
<h2>1. A poll bounce</h2>
<p>Early polls are a crucial gauge of a new prime minister’s popularity and a sign that it may be worth seeking a personal mandate sooner rather than later.</p>
<p>Truss will be hoping for a poll bounce as the fresh face in 10 Downing Street. Whether this materialises – and how large a lead she achieves – will be key in her decision to hold an election sooner or to hold off. </p>
<p>The calculation is not straightforward. Public opinion can be volatile once you’ve called an election so what looks like a strong lead can suddenly evaporate. True, Boris Johnson secured an 80-seat parliamentary majority when he called an election in December 2019, shortly after taking office as a mid-term prime minister, but one doesn’t need to look further than his immediate predecessor to see how easily fortunes can swing in the other direction. </p>
<p>Theresa May inherited a healthy parliamentary majority from her predecessor and then <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uk-election-fails-to-produce-a-winner-heres-what-happens-now-79193">recklessly squandered it</a> with an early vote that saw her forced into minority government. </p>
<p>Truss will be hopeful of returning her party to a healthy poll lead at the very least. A significant lead may encourage her to roll the dice and call a vote. If she can push the Tory poll figures back towards 40% (where it hovered for many years <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/08/02/voting-intention-con-34-lab-35-27-28-july">until recently</a>), and there is a corresponding Labour fall, then it might make her think it’s a good idea to trigger a vote.</p>
<h2>2. A change of tune when asked the magic question</h2>
<p>It’s par for the course for prospective prime ministers to talk down the possibility of an election before they actually get the job. Suggesting the nation be put through the turmoil of a general election is not a vote winning strategy, particularly at a time when the electorate is weary and concerned with <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/cost-of-living-crisis-115238">other things</a>.</p>
<p>However, in reality it is what happens after the job is secured that really counts. Look out for changes in Truss’s language, tone and emphasis in response to questions about an election over the coming weeks. If she starts to return ambiguous responses such as “not now” or “I couldn’t comment”, or if she changes the subject, that could indicate that she’s considering her options.</p>
<p>However, the experience of Gordon Brown in 2007 should serve as the ultimate warning that once you set such general election rumours in motion, it’s hard to back down from them <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/may/11/polls.gordonbrown">without losing face</a>.</p>
<p>After letting everyone believe an early election was imminent, Brown dithered. His failure to call the vote he had trailed ultimately weakened his position for the remainder of his premiership. He was relentlessly taunted by then opposition leader David Cameron, who claimed that Brown was “the first prime minister in history to flunk an election … you thought you could win”.</p>
<h2>3. A struggling opposition</h2>
<p>The fortunes of the opposition will be a particular area of interest for the new prime minister when calculating her electoral strategy.</p>
<p>Labour’s polling has only marginally improved since its demoralising electoral defeat in 2019. <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/08/17/voting-intention-con-30-lab-39-9-10-aug">Figures under Keir Starmer</a> have only averaged four to five points higher than the 32% achieved then under Jeremy Corbyn. Even in August, with a lame duck prime minister in Downing Street, the average Labour lead was <a href="https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/latest-opinion-polls/">below 4%</a>.</p>
<p>If Labour’s figures continue to flounder and Starmer fails to make an impact in the first weeks of the new administration, then an election gamble under a revitalised Conservative leader may become a serious option.</p>
<p>Prime Minister’s Questions could emerge as a key arena. Look to see if Starmer can land some visible political blows to put the new prime minister on the back foot or if she achieves the same in reverse.</p>
<h2>4. The cost-of-living crisis gets worse</h2>
<p>If the economy <a href="https://theconversation.com/inflation-why-its-very-unlikely-to-get-back-below-2-for-years-to-come-189076">continues to deteriorate</a> over the next month or so, then that would surely be a warning to refrain from an early electoral contest. Timing a vote when the public is suffering financially would almost certainly inflict damage on the new prime minister. She would risk a backlash for failing to reverse a prolonged situation that was happening while she was part of Johnson’s cabinet. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A letter reading 'the cost of energy is increasing'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479947/original/file-20220818-9234-24w3b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479947/original/file-20220818-9234-24w3b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479947/original/file-20220818-9234-24w3b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479947/original/file-20220818-9234-24w3b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479947/original/file-20220818-9234-24w3b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479947/original/file-20220818-9234-24w3b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479947/original/file-20220818-9234-24w3b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Would the new PM be opening Pandora’s jar by calling a vote in the midst of a cost of living crisis?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/paper-electricity-bill-cost-increasing-notice-2132985595">Shutterstock/Jevanto</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Look also to how media outlets cover this issue under Truss. Are they blaming her or giving her the benefit of the doubt? Any prime minister makes a very careful assessment of how they are being treated by the press before gambling on an election. In her case, the right-wing media response is the most pertinent, particularly among Johnson loyalists. </p>
<h2>5. The parliamentary party rallies</h2>
<p>The Conservative party is ruthless in terms of its political re-invention, spurred by a thirst for power and an image of itself as the <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230367487_1">“natural party of government”</a>. The mid-term successions of <a href="http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/62454/?template=banner">John Major</a> in 1990 and Johnson in 2019 show that a new leader can revive the party’s fortunes while still in power. However, the party was bitterly divided over Johnson and the tone of the leadership contest between Truss and her rival Rishi Sunak has not helped heal the wounds. </p>
<p>Truss must closely observe the mood and chatter of their backbenchers, specifically whether the hostile briefings and disunity that have been occurring continue or fade away.</p>
<p>If a new sense of internal unity emerges around the new leader, the Conservative party may be better poised for an electoral contest than has been the case for some time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189008/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Williams is a member of the UCU and Amnesty International.</span></em></p>A new prime minister is in place – but is now a good time to go to the polls?Ben Williams, Lecturer in Politics and Political Theory, University of SalfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1896652022-09-01T14:53:46Z2022-09-01T14:53:46ZTory leadership race: will Liz Truss’s tax cut proposals win her votes? Here’s what voter data says<p>When the results of the Conservative leadership race are announced next week, the UK’s new prime minister will be facing a formidable set of challenges. There is the worst cost of living crisis in 50 years, a war in Europe, an antagonistic relationship with the EU and divisions within the Conservative party itself. The public is sceptical about the government’s ability to solve any of these issues with many switching to Labour <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election">in the polls</a> since December of last year.</p>
<p>Given this array of problems, presumed next prime minister Liz Truss’s focus on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2022/jul/21/liz-truss-my-tax-cuts-decrease-inflation-tory-leadership-video">tax cuts as the solution</a> to rapidly growing inflation looks very odd. At a time when the pound is <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/currency">rapidly falling</a> in currency markets and Citi bank is forecasting an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/22/uk-inflation-will-hit-18-per-cent-in-early-2023-says-leading-bank-citi-gas-electricity">inflation rate of 18% in 2023</a>, putting tax rebates into people’s pockets runs the risk of making inflation worse. </p>
<p>There is a strategy behind Truss’s approach, which makes sense if we look closely. There are votes to be won by focusing on taxes – but these are among Conservative party members, not the general public.</p>
<p>Looking at the public first, the issue of taxation does not appear among any of the <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/886366/issues-facing-britain/">top nine issues</a> voters are prioritising at the moment. Not surprisingly, this list is dominated by the economy and healthcare. On the other hand, if people get help from the government to pay their fuel bills, it could very well move up the agenda and give the new prime minister a boost. Just look at how <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/02/23/what-public-opinion-rishi-sunak">popular</a> the pandemic furlough scheme made Truss’s leadership rival Rishi Sunak.</p>
<p>To understand the effect of tax cuts on voting, we can look directly at the relationship between tax payments and voting in the 2019 general election. A relatively obscure <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/income-and-tax-by-parliamentary-constituency-2010-to-2011">government publication</a> provides data on the median tax burden in each of the 632 parliamentary constituencies in Britain at the time of the election.</p>
<p>The chart below, using data from this publication, shows the relationship between the median tax paid per person in each constituency, and the Conservative vote share in that election. The median tax paid in Britain was just under £2,500 at the time of the election. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dot chart with median tax per person on the x-axis and Conservative share of the vote on the y-axis, with dozens of small dots representing parliamentary constituencies. The summary line is nearly horizontal, showing little correlation between the two." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482112/original/file-20220831-8166-cx3hnk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482112/original/file-20220831-8166-cx3hnk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482112/original/file-20220831-8166-cx3hnk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482112/original/file-20220831-8166-cx3hnk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482112/original/file-20220831-8166-cx3hnk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482112/original/file-20220831-8166-cx3hnk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482112/original/file-20220831-8166-cx3hnk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There was little correlation between the median tax burden in a constituency and voting
Conservative in the 2019 general election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Conservative party has traditionally sought to develop its reputation as a <a href="https://www.conservatives.com/our-plan/conservative-party-manifesto-2019">tax-cutting party</a>. Truss is continuing this tradition, even though tax rates are very high at the moment. Given this, we might expect constituencies that pay high taxes to be more Conservative than constituencies that pay much less.</p>
<p>Yet that is not what we see, since the trendline is flat – indicating that there is no relationship between support for the Conservative party and taxes paid by the typical voter. In other words, high-tax constituencies are no more likely to vote Conservative than they are to vote for another party. </p>
<h2>Winning over party members</h2>
<p>So what’s driving Truss’s big emphasis on tax cuts? This is a sensible strategy given that the Conservative party membership is rather old. A <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Footsoldiers-Political-Party-Membership-in-the-21st-Century/Bale-Webb-Poletti/p/book/9781138302464">recent book on party membership</a> in Britain by political scientist Tim Bale and colleagues showed that 40% of the party’s membership in 2015 was over 65. </p>
<p>As the chart below shows, there is an association between median pensioner incomes and voting Conservative in the election. As the typical pensioner income rises in a constituency, it is more likely to vote Conservative. The association is not very strong, but it is enough for Truss to focus on when appealing to the Tory base, who are choosing between her and Sunak to lead the party.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dot chart with median pensioner income on the x-axis and Conservative share of the vote on the y-axis, with dozens of small dots representing parliamentary constituencies. The summary line is inclining, showing a positive correlation between the two." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482114/original/file-20220831-3577-lhq1k5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482114/original/file-20220831-3577-lhq1k5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482114/original/file-20220831-3577-lhq1k5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482114/original/file-20220831-3577-lhq1k5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482114/original/file-20220831-3577-lhq1k5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482114/original/file-20220831-3577-lhq1k5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482114/original/file-20220831-3577-lhq1k5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There is, however, a positive correlation between median pensioner income and constituencies voting Conservative.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, this focus could change once she is safely ensconced in Downing Street. The wider public is not interested in tax cuts and so this policy will probably rapidly fade into the background. Truss is likely to make an immediate gesture by cutting the <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/liz-truss-vows-reverse-national-insurance-rise-immediately-b1017113.html">proposed increases</a> in national insurance rates, and then U-turn to focus on handing out cash to businesses and individuals as a matter of urgency. A failure to deal rapidly with the most salient issue in the public’s mind – the cost of living crisis – will damage her premiership from the start. This means she will essentially adopt Rishi Sunak’s strategy.</p>
<p>That said, she will still have to square the circle of dealing with financial markets. Continuing reliance on borrowing to fund cash handouts risks triggering a sterling crisis and <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalflight.asp">capital flight</a> – a sudden exodus of money from the country. A collapse in the value of the pound would make imports more expensive, accelerating inflation. Similarly, capital flight would make it harder for the government to borrow in order to fund tax cuts. The support of the party membership is not enough to shore up the position of the next prime minister, who will face a delicate balancing act in the run-up to the next election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189665/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC. </span></em></p>The likely next prime minister is focusing on tax cuts to solve inflation.Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1866152022-07-08T14:50:19Z2022-07-08T14:50:19ZBoris Johnson’s claim of a ‘mandate’ from the people isn’t accurate – here’s how prime ministers really get power<p>Boris Johnson’s time as Conservative party leader has <a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-resignation-how-the-prime-ministers-tumultuous-week-played-out-186607">come to an end</a>, after a chaotic week marked by rebellion from his cabinet. But despite the wave of resignations and calls from his top ministers to step down, Johnson has held on as long as he could. </p>
<p>Throughout, he has claimed he had a “mandate” from Conservative voters who delivered him an 80-seat <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/government-majority">majority</a> in the 2019 general election, to stay on as prime minister. Even into his resignation speech, Johnson spoke to “the millions of people who voted for us in 2019 … Thank you for that incredible mandate.” </p>
<p>Johnson’s few defenders have decried the revolt from his ministers as an anti-democratic <a href="https://www.mailplus.co.uk/edition/comment/199387">“coup d'etat”</a>. Pro-Brexit think tank the Bruges Group <a href="https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/1544959163574484995">tweeted</a> that Johnson was being “forced out” undemocratically. At the time of writing, Johnson is still in post, and planning to stay as caretaker prime minister until he is replaced. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but if it does, it won’t be because of a “mandate” directly from the people. </p>
<p>Unlike the US, with its famous constitution codified into a single document subject to careful scrutiny, the UK’s constitution is a collection of laws and rules which have emerged over time. In the US, the head of state is the president, elected every four years with clearly delineated powers and responsibilities. </p>
<p>In the UK, the head of state is the monarch. However, a lengthy series of processes over <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/evolutionofparliament/">centuries</a> have incrementally stripped the monarchy of direct power. Instead, executive power is delegated to ministers and, first among equals, the prime minister. They form the government of the day, and effectively govern as representatives of the Queen, who is constitutionally required to remain steadfastly neutral in political affairs.</p>
<p>So, how are prime ministers selected, and where do they actually get their power?</p>
<p>In essence, the House of Commons is supreme. Theoretically, <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/11/contents/enacted">every five years</a> (though often more frequently) the membership of the House of Commons is put to the people. Voters are asked to choose someone to represent them as their member of parliament (MP). </p>
<p>An MP represents one of <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/constituencies/">650 constituencies</a>, most of which have an average of around 70,000 voters. The monarch then, after an election, invites the MP with enough support from within the House of Commons to the palace and asks them to form a government. They are then to select ministers, drawn from the body of MPs in the House of Commons and the peers in the House of Lords.</p>
<h2>Party power</h2>
<p>This, in essence, means that power is held by the MP who can command the support of a majority of other MPs. This is somewhat complicated by the party-political system. Naturally, politicians of roughly similar perspectives arrange themselves into broad camps. These camps have developed over time into political parties, where individuals selected by their party stand for election under that party’s banner and published manifesto of agreed policy positions. Naturally, voters tend to gravitate to parties which better reflect their individual views and cast their votes accordingly. </p>
<p>In the UK, the party system has emerged such that the leader of the victorious party in an election typically is invited to form a government. There are some exceptions to this. For instance, Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, is a member of the Scottish parliament and not an MP at Westminster. </p>
<p>Some elections produce a “hung Parliament”, when no party has enough MPs to form a government. In these instances, parties must work with MPs from rival parties to form a government. For instance, in 2017 the Conservatives forged a <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-confidence-and-supply-government-40442">confidence and supply</a> agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party, and in 2010 went into <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/coalition-government/">coalition</a> with the Liberal Democrats. </p>
<p>The party system, in conjunction with the presumed qualities of a given party leader, is a powerful draw at the ballot box. Many people may vote based on the leader or values of the party. But, whether they realise it or not, they are actually voting for an individual representative, not a government or PM. This has long been the case. </p>
<p>In the Conservative Party, leaders are <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01366/">chosen</a> from within the parliamentary party. Candidates must be nominated by at least eight MPs and, through rounds of voting, the two left standing are put to the membership of the wider Conservative Party. If the Conservatives control a majority of seats in the House of Commons, that leader will be able to form a government.</p>
<p>In an important speech in 1774, one of the founders of modern Conservatism, <a href="https://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/v1ch13s7.html">Edmund Burke</a>, said that, “Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.” </p>
<p>In other words, we elect representatives to act, based on their own judgement, on our behalf. We do not elect automatons who are merely there to vote according to the wishes of constituent party members or party voters. They must do what they feel is best for their community and the country.</p>
<p>This not only applies to how they vote on specific pieces of legislation, but is essential to how they select party leaders and, in turn, prime ministers. MPs grant power through their support. If that support evaporates, the government falls. </p>
<p>This is not new. In 2019, Theresa May lost the support of the majority of MPs in the House of Commons and was forced to tender her resignation to the Queen. In fact, since 1940, <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04256/SN04256.pdf">nine prime ministers</a> have assumed office between elections.</p>
<p>In short, Boris Johnson’s mandate never came from the 14 million votes that his party representatives won on December 12, 2019. It came from the elected MPs. And he has resigned because that support of free-thinking individual representatives has now been withdrawn.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186615/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The minister revolt against Boris Johnson wasn’t anti-democratic - it’s representative democracy in action.Chris Smith, Lecturer in History, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1857222022-06-24T13:10:32Z2022-06-24T13:10:32ZWakefield and Tiverton and Honiton byelections: even Boris Johnson loyalists will now be worried for the next election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470750/original/file-20220624-20-jz24ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=131%2C0%2C5275%2C3465&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is Johnson in danger?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/boris-johnson-secretary-state-foreign-affairs-1458881657">Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The scale of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-61789404">byelection defeats</a> in Tiverton and Honiton in south-west England and Wakefield in the north of England might have Conservative rebels wishing they had waited a few weeks to hold a no-confidence vote in Boris Johnson. For the 148 MPs who voted against him, these results might have swayed just enough of their colleagues to join them in toppling the prime minister.</p>
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<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
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<p>Even Johnson loyalists might feel nervous for the future following these results. Only 72 constituencies in the UK were supposedly safer for the Tories than Tiverton and Honiton, where the Conservatives held a 24,000 majority and won 60% of the vote in the election of 2019. Yet the Liberal Democrats romped home on a monster swing of 30%, replacing Conservative MP Neil Parish, who resigned after admitting to watching porn in the House of Commons.</p>
<p>This was the Lib Dems’ third successive crushing of Johnson’s party, following byelections in Chesham and Amersham in south east England and North Shropshire in the West Midlands. The party now appears poised to take other rural and southern seats at the next election.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the new blue wall of northern constituencies taken from Labour in 2019 is already crumbling. Labour has taken Wakefield back from the Conservatives, after Tory MP Imran Khan was <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-61549531">jailed for sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy</a>. Many blue wall seats require only small swings to return to Labour. The 12.7% swing which turned Wakefield back to red was more than three times the 3.8% required, indicating the fragility of the majority constructed by Johnson’s Conservatives in their remarkable 2019 election triumph. </p>
<p>In Wakefield, the Conservative share fell by 17.3%, while in Tiverton and Honiton it collapsed by 21.8% – results that may give Labour hope for the next election.</p>
<h2>What’s next for Johnson?</h2>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of these two byelection results, Oliver Dowden, the chairman of the Conservative party, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61920000">resigned</a>, saying “somebody must take responsibility”.</p>
<p>Johnson has perhaps one last chance to reestablish himself as the electoral asset which, combined with his championing of Brexit, is what propelled him to leadership in the first place. The party is losing its confidence in Johnson, as the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-what-the-result-of-the-confidence-vote-means-for-the-pm-and-the-conservative-party-184500">confidence vote</a> suggests, but his huge general election win in 2019 has been evidence enough to keep him around. </p>
<p>Yesterday’s result is a further blow to Johnson’s reputation as an election winner. The loss of shire counties – Conservative strongholds – at next year’s local elections would be even more painful, and surely spell the end – even for a leader well versed in riding his luck.</p>
<p>Johnson’s MPs are acutely aware that they are friendless in parliament (with the arguable exception of Northern Ireland’s DUP members). While other political parties could fight an election aiming to establish a coalition, a Conservative leader needs an overall majority. Winning outright now looks like a mighty challenge – not least for a party which will be asking the electorate to extend its period in office to nearly 20 years. </p>
<p>The Conservatives can fairly argue that the swing against them in Wakefield was not spectacular by byelection standards. But up north, these days, only modest shifts will return a swath of northern seats to Labour. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats suffered a net loss of seats at the last election, but still increased their share of the vote in 574 of the 611 constituencies the party contested. The party now lies second in 88 seats, of which 80 are Conservative-held. Johnson may be a lucky general – but he has never fought on so many fronts – and at the moment he is losing.</p>
<h2>Lessons from history</h2>
<p>Byelections are too often discounted as temporary froth. This is foolish. The demise of Margaret Thatcher, the last Conservative leader to win an outright majority at more than one election, is attributed to Europe, the poll tax and Cabinet hostility. But three crushing byelection defeats just a month before the fatal leadership challenge against her should not be underestimated.</p>
<p>John Major’s 1992 triumph was followed by regular byelection disasters. The Conservatives lost all eight seats it defended in byelections in the following parliament, including one just three months before being roundly defeated by Labour in the 1997 general election.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tiverton-and-honiton-byelection-rural-communities-are-itching-for-the-chance-to-cast-a-protest-vote-185236">Tiverton and Honiton byelection: rural communities are itching for the chance to cast a protest vote</a>
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<p>Tony Blair’s byelection successes provided a surefire indication that New Labour would be comfortably reelected. Blair was the byelection king, with Labour never losing a contest for one of its seats to the Conservatives under his stewardship. Thirteen seats were successfully defended, the only two reverses being to the Liberal Democrats. Things deteriorated and we knew Labour was heading out of power when the party, under Gordon Brown, lost byelections in Crewe and Nantwich (2008) and Norwich North (2009) on 18% and 17% swings respectively.</p>
<p>After a mid-term parliamentary gain (Hartlepool from Labour last year), Johnson now has a poor byelection record. Two seats have been held, but one of those was uncontested by the other main parties – all four other contests have been lost. </p>
<p>As party leader, Johnson desperately needs an improvement in opinion poll ratings, and these losses don’t help. If he survives until next year, he will need credible local election results if there is to be any confidence in him taking the Conservatives into the next election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185722/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Tonge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Byelection defeats in Tiverton and Honiton and Wakefield will have shaken some Conservative MPs.Jonathan Tonge, Professor of Politics, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1338192020-03-16T16:10:28Z2020-03-16T16:10:28ZShould elections be postponed because of coronavirus?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320793/original/file-20200316-27658-182gdoc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=96%2C41%2C4479%2C2990&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Tannen Maury</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Local elections scheduled to take place in England and Wales in the first week of May – including the London mayoral vote – have been postponed as part of attempts to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus in the UK. Following advice from medical experts, the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/postponement-of-may-2020-elections">UK government</a> decided to hold off until May 2021.</p>
<p>Across the English Channel, French president Emmanuel Macron considered cancelling mayoral and municipal elections, but later judged that they should take place as planned. The first round of voting went ahead on March 15 <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20200315-france-heads-to-the-polls-in-nationwide-municipal-elections-amid-coronavirus-pandemic">“to ensure the continuity of our democratic life”</a>.</p>
<p>Some lower profile contests might not be mourned by the public during times of major concern, but their absence raises the question of whether other elections should be postponed. Votes are <a href="http://www.electionguide.org/">on the horizon</a> in 2020 for Mali, Armenia, North Macedonia, South Korea, Serbia, Bolivia, Poland, Malawi, Iceland, Mongolia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Ivory Coast and the US, to name just some.</p>
<p>Should these events be cancelled? There are pros and cons on both sides of the debate.</p>
<h2>Protecting officials and citizens</h2>
<p>Elections have been rescheduled before, of course. In 2018, the <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30002-9/fulltext">Democratic Republic of Congo</a> delayed the presidential contest because of Ebola. In 2001 the UK general election was held off because of the spread of foot and mouth disease across the country.</p>
<p>The most obvious (and important) reason for postponing an election is the health of everyone involved. Elections should be the opposite of “social distancing”. They are public events that deliberately bring together people to exchange ideas and transmit infectious arguments about the future direction of a community. They should involve candidates and their supporters reaching out to the public to get the vote out. Door knocking, leaflet distribution in busy city centres, and mass rallies with activists drumming up support are all signs of a healthy election.</p>
<p>Elections are also supposed to be a time for talking. Simply holding an election is insufficient because citizens should actively consider their interests and the issues; weigh up competing arguments made by candidates; and discuss them around the dinner table, in the coffee shop and street corner.</p>
<p>Then, on election day, citizens turn up to polling stations and are handed a ballot paper. In many countries, electronic kiosks are installed requiring each voter to touch a screen to cast their ballot. It isn’t just the voters that we should be concerned about, but staff who often work full days (and nights) to keep democracy moving. </p>
<p>My research with Alistair Clark, reader in politics at Newcastle University, shows that in the UK, for example, the <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/clark-james-poll-workers.pdf">poll worker labour force</a> is made up of mostly women (63%) with an average age of 53 and they are very often retired. In some countries, serving as a poll worker is a compulsory civic duty. </p>
<p>Turnout is also likely to be hit if an election is held during an epidemic because many people may stay away from the polls. Iran saw low turnout in its <a href="https://www.idea.int/data-tools/country-view/149/40">February 2020 elections</a> amid the coronavirus outbreak.</p>
<p>Lower turnout as a whole is bad for democracy but there is also the question of whether turnout could end up being lower among particular demographic groups. There is always an unevenness in who votes and coronavirus could introduce significant new inequalities because elderly voters and those with underlying health conditions may decide to stay away from the polls just in case. Holding elections at a time when some demographics are at a higher risk would seem to confound the principle that the electoral process should provide equality to everyone and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01442872.2019.1694657?journalCode=cpos20">that measures should be put in place</a> to mitigate and address turnout inequalities. </p>
<h2>The dangers of waiting</h2>
<p>Postponing a vote could, however, mean that leaders and representatives who are not necessarily doing a good job will remain in office for longer. Citizens will be temporarily denied their right to shape public policy – perhaps at exactly the moment that they need to.</p>
<p>In some cases, there will be concern that a government may capitalise on a crisis to avoid holding an election at all. If one is postponed because of coronavirus, will it be rearranged? If so, when? Incumbent governments could be given an opportunity to reschedule at a moment when the opinion polls are more favourable. </p>
<p>Postponement should therefore be a last resort so that we can be reassured that democratic life will continue. Where postponement is on the cards, cross-party consensus on a clearly agreed timetable for rescheduling is crucial. Democracy relies on responsible political parties, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/562246/how-democracies-die-by-steven-levitsky-and-daniel-ziblatt/">who should act as custodians for the process</a> and not be opportunistic.</p>
<h2>Remote voting: making elections safe</h2>
<p>The need for elections to be postponed is much weaker where there are is already the provision of postal voting and/or remote electronic voting, for example, to allow citizens to vote from home. These are obvious workarounds for epidemics which could be expanded. This is already possible in many countries. <a href="https://qz.com/1815783/south-korea-coronavirus-patients-to-vote-from-home-and-hospitals/">South Korea</a> is currently putting emergency mechanisms in place so that citizens can vote from hospitals ahead of the April 2020 elections.</p>
<p>The coronavirus pandemic is a reminder of the unexpected risks involved in running an election, albeit on an epic scale. It’s impossible to run an election at a time like this – or during a natural disaster – without making some compromises. These votes will never end up being the democratic ideal. But postponing poses risks to democracy, too. <a href="https://www.idea.int/data-tools/tools/electoral-risk-management-tool">Contingency planning</a> is the best hope of keeping the electoral show on the road.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toby James' research has been externally funded by the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust, British Academy, Leverhulme Trust, AHRC, ESRC, Nuffield Foundation, SSHRC and the McDougall Trust. </span></em></p>There are good reasons to call off a vote during a pandemic – but other good reasons to push ahead.Toby James, Visiting Academic at International IDEA and Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1291562020-01-07T13:58:04Z2020-01-07T13:58:04ZWhy media education in schools needs to be about much more than ‘fake news’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308619/original/file-20200106-123395-goukla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C24%2C5475%2C3639&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/education-school-student-computer-network-technology-397853056">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2019 general election is already being remembered as the one where <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-should-look-closely-at-britains-decision-to-elect-a-man-so-renowned-for-his-untrustworthiness-128733">misinformation went mainstream</a>. It was, of course, already on the political agenda after the 2016 referendum and US election, with growing numbers of <a href="https://crestresearch.ac.uk/resources/russian-influence-uk-terrorist-attacks/">academics</a> and <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/1791/179109.htm#_idTextAnchor063">parliament</a> sounding the alarm over foreign actors using so-called “<a href="https://theconversation.com/facebooks-fake-news-plan-is-doomed-to-failure-social-media-must-do-more-to-counter-disinformation-75953">fake news</a>” to disrupt the democratic processes.</p>
<p>But what was seen over the election period was not the work of fringe actors. Instead, major political parties appeared to adopt tactics previously associated with shady players operating at the edges of the information ecosystem. No major party was entirely innocent, as evidenced by <a href="https://firstdraftnews.org/latest/uk-general-election-2019-round-up-voting-day/">First Draft’s Cross Check project</a>. But the Conservatives’ campaign repeatedly adopted controversial tactics. Tactics such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/20/twitter-accuses-tories-of-misleading-public-in-factcheck-row">having its press office pose as a fact-checking service</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50595930">editing BBC news footage</a> to imply that prominent journalists supported the party’s line on Brexit.</p>
<p>Voters, <a href="https://firstdraftnews.org/latest/thousands-of-misleading-conservative-ads-side-step-scrutiny-thanks-to-facebook-policy/">the evidence suggests</a>, were caught in a storm of <a href="https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-did-a-report-really-find-0-of-labour-ads-misleading">misleading Facebook posts</a>, memes and tweaked videos. This was a covert propaganda campaign and its impact has yet to be established.</p>
<p><a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2019-06/DNR_2019_FINAL_1.pdf">Research from the Reuters Institute for News</a> has shown for some time that growing numbers of people in the UK access their news online – 74% in 2018. Over a third (39%) get news via social media.</p>
<p>But recent reports have revealed that the situation is even more complex, with work by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/05/uncovered-reality-of-how-smartphones-turned-election-news-into-chaos">the Guardian</a> and <a href="https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0028/174088/bbc-news-review-deck.pdf">Ofcom</a> showing people over-reporting news consumption, skimming over headlines and consuming so-called news via user-generated memes, celebrity influencer posts and politicians on social media.</p>
<h2>Information crisis</h2>
<p>There have been <a href="https://reformpoliticaladvertising.org/">calls for urgent reform to the laws around political advertising</a> to take account of this confusing digital landscape during elections. This is something that politicians must take seriously in the months that follow.</p>
<p>But there is also space for a bottom-up response to this information crisis. The future electorate must be taught how to navigate the modern news landscape. Young people also need to be helped to understand why – in this age of misinformation – public interest news is more important than ever.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-spot-fake-news-an-experts-guide-for-young-people-88887">How to spot fake news – an expert's guide for young people</a>
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<p>Far from being “digital natives”, evidence from the US points to a generation of young people who have no idea where their information online comes from, or why they are reading it. A <a href="https://ed.stanford.edu/news/stanford-researchers-find-students-have-trouble-judging-credibility-information-online">report by the Stanford History Education Group</a> evaluated the online reasoning skills of 3,446 high school students age 12 to 17 between June 2018 and May 2019. They described the results they found as “troubling”.</p>
<p>There is no evidence to suggest young people in the UK are any better. In fact, the 2018 <a href="https://literacytrust.org.uk/policy-and-campaigns/all-party-parliamentary-group-literacy/fakenews/">Commission on Fake News and the Teaching of Critical Literacy Skills</a> found that only 2% of children have the critical literacy skills needed to identify a credible news story.</p>
<h2>News literacy needed</h2>
<p>A growing number of educators, policy makers and third-sector groups are calling for news and critical digital literacy to be taught in schools, with over <a href="https://literacytrust.org.uk/research-services/research-reports/fake-news-and-critical-literacy-final-report/">half of teachers reporting</a> that the current national curriculum does not equip pupils with the literacy skills they need to tackle fake news.</p>
<p>In its <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/1791/1791.pdf">final report on Fake News</a>, published in February 2019, the UK parliament’s Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee reiterated its calls for digital literacy to be the fourth pillar of education alongside reading, writing and maths. But thus far these calls have fallen on deaf ears.</p>
<p>In its <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/2184/2184.pdf">response to the committee’s report</a> the government insisted there was no need, arguing students already study the core components of digital literacy in history, English and IT. There have <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/1630/163002.htm">also been suggestions </a> that governmental action is not needed because others are active in this space. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">It’s not just children either, half of all people now get their news from social media.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/minsk-belarus-november-6-2016-boy-516190801">AlesiaKan/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>There are indeed news organisations, charities and others running news literacy workshops in schools, covering topics such as how articles are put together, and why news matters. The government-commissioned <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/779882/021919_DCMS_Cairncross_Review_.pdf">Cairncross review into the future of journalism</a> highlighted some of these and suggested that more collaboration between them could be encouraged as part of a governmental media literacy strategy. </p>
<p>These initiatives, such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/newswise">NewsWise</a>, a Google-funded partnership between the Guardian Foundation and the National Literacy Trust aimed at primary school children, do valuable work. But many are limited in scope and scale, reliant on external funding and in most cases not subject to any independent evaluation or benchmarking.</p>
<p>And the numbers do not add up. There are close to nine million schoolchildren in England according to <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/812539/Schools_Pupils_and_their_Characteristics_2019_Main_Text.pdf">Department for Education figures</a> from 2018-2019. But such initiatives are reaching no more than 10,000 children – and that is a generous estimate. This is insufficient to deal with the scale of the challenge.</p>
<h2>Check your sources</h2>
<p>After he found himself at the centre of a “fake news” row about a genuine picture his newspaper published of a boy lying on the floor of Leeds General Infirmary during the final week of the election campaign, <a href="https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/health/do-not-believe-a-stranger-on-social-media-who-disappears-into-the-night-an-open-letter-from-our-editor-to-you-1-10147697">the editor of the Yorkshire Post urged readers</a> not to trust a social media poster who “disappears into the night”. Instead, he urged them to appreciate the difference between that and verified, independent and accountable journalism.</p>
<p>But this is easier said than done. News is no longer spoon-fed by a handful of gatekeeper media outlets. This is not a bad thing, but to enable tomorrow’s votes to adopt a healthy news diet, schools must equip them with the skills to do this. And the government needs to act to make this happen sooner rather than later.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129156/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frances Yeoman receives funding from the British Academy/ Leverhulme small research grants fund for her research work on news literacy education. She also holds a bursary from the Association of Journalism Educators. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Morris receives funding from the British Academy/ Leverhulme small research grants fund for her research work on news literacy education.
She is a member of the Green Party of England and Wales.</span></em></p>Only 2% of children have the skills needed to identify a credible news story.Frances Yeoman, Senior Lecturer in Journalism, Liverpool John Moores UniversityKate Morris, Lecturer in Journalism, Goldsmiths, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1284372019-12-10T14:25:14Z2019-12-10T14:25:14ZWhy the UK has no clear party of business<p>The Conservative Party is the self-styled party of business. Or at least it was until Boris Johnson’s notorious “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-26/f-business-i-was-referring-to-lobbyists-johnson-explains">fuck business</a>” response to concerns over Brexit. But there is also a longer history to these tensions. </p>
<p>Back in 1981, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), the national lobby group for British business interests, was so angered by Conservative policies that it threatened to engage in a “<a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=eEpdDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA190&lpg=PA190&dq=%25E2%2580%2598bare+knuckle+fight%25E2%2580%2599+tories+business+1983&source=bl&ots=zVGeaAHla6&sig=ACfU3U3dAFXDFEE4EFyHMNGNS90A0PO5ew&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwii2ZSRo5zmAhWRh1wKHXDtBmUQ6AEwFXoECAwQAQ#v=onepage&q=%25E2%2580%2598bare%2520knuckle%2520fight%25E2%2580%2599%2520tories%2520business%25201983&f=false">bare-knuckle fight</a>” with the Thatcher government.</p>
<p>No mainstream political party in Britain has ever declared itself as anti-business. In practice, most parties recognise the importance of meeting business needs. Governments are ultimately bound in their policy choices by the reality that they have to protect jobs, induce private investment and raise revenue by taxing companies.</p>
<p>Where parties differ is in choosing which businesses and which needs they will seek to satisfy and how. While all businesses need to make profit, not all businesses make profits in the same way, nor in the same volume. </p>
<p>Businesses are so diverse that it is impossible to satisfy all interests and, in practice, the policies that political parties pursue are likely to result in some businesses and sectors being <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9780333363119">privileged over others</a>. The business models of some companies depend on low wages, low taxes and weak regulations. Others depend on market access, high skills and good labour relations. Still others make most or all of their profits based on winning government contracts. </p>
<p>The policies required to satisfy these different <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-social-policy/article/taking-back-control-or-empowering-big-business-new-risks-to-the-welfare-state-in-the-postbrexit-competition-for-investment/D0481679DFA46F94840BE9CFC0AC1D76">needs vary widely</a>. And the implications for workers and citizens are huge.</p>
<p>We also have to distinguish between the short and long-term interests of business and separate the politics of business people from business institutions. For Matt Ridley, former chair of the bank Northern Rock prior to its collapse in the 2008 financial crisis, the party of choice was the Conservatives. But while Ridley <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/biographies/lords/viscount-ridley/4272">leaned towards the Conservative Party</a> and lobbied hard for less government, what Northern Rock needed to stave off collapse was greater regulation and then a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0010414013488540">massive injection of public funds</a>.</p>
<p>These various tensions have become more complex over the past 40 years as a result of <a href="https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/002463019090009S?token=5A06136908AB08ADEE2598DA4FEB7490BC007F3014E9222F66B32ADDF7E09717B4B7BF1356014F3249931DCD5E9BEA20">the globalisation of manufacturing</a>, the emergence of <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/785547/unlocking_digital_competition_furman_review_web.pdf">digital markets that are dominated by a few big businesses</a>, and the increasing <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137265821_2">influence of financial elites over economic policy</a>. </p>
<p>These transformations have worked to deepen long-established cultural and strategic differences between business elites. So to understand which party policies may be better for business we need to cut through crude electoral signalling and <a href="https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/labours-renationalisation-plans-will-profoundly-harm-uk/">the distrust that business elites have</a> toward public ownership. We also need to differentiate between short and long-term business interests and the competing interests of different types of business and economic sectors.</p>
<h2>The manifestos compared</h2>
<p>Both parties promise to reduce taxes for small businesses, increase investment in and support for businesses, and tackle tax avoidance. The <a href="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5da42e2cae7ebd3f8bde353c/5dda924905da587992a064ba_Conservative%202019%20Manifesto.pdf">Conservatives state</a> they “will always be wholeheartedly on the side of business”. </p>
<p>But Labour’s commitments are conditional upon good corporate behaviour. The <a href="https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf">party’s manifesto</a> promises to rein in corporate power and tackle companies that exploit workers and consumers.</p>
<p>More generally, Labour and Conservative proposals represent two radically distinct visions for business and the economy. Along with “getting Brexit done”, <a href="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5da42e2cae7ebd3f8bde353c/5dda924905da587992a064ba_Conservative%25202019%2520Manifesto.pdf">Conservative plans for business</a> centre on several modest proposals, selectively sampled and adapted from the <a href="https://www.cbi.org.uk/media/3785/12543_programme-for-prosperity-manifesto.pdf">CBI’s recommendations</a> for reducing business costs and encouraging investment. </p>
<p>These include a review of business rates, raising tax breaks including employment allowance (from £3,000 to £4,000) and the Research and Development (R&D) tax credits. Plus, the Conservatives’ planned National Skills Fund aims to address skills shortages in the economy by providing individuals and small and medium-sized enterprises with matched funding for education and training.</p>
<p><a href="https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf">Labour’s plans</a>, by comparison, purposefully aim to be transformative. They are designed to address both short and long-term problems within British capitalism. Labour proposes a joined-up approach to addressing key socioeconomic and environmental risks from climate change to <a href="https://www.josharcher.uk/static/files/2013/Industrial-Performance-1870-2010.pdf">chronic under-investment</a> and <a href="http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SPERI-Paper-28-Innovation-research-and-the-UK-productivity-crisis.pdf">sluggish productivity growth</a>. </p>
<p>Labour envisages a more interventionist, entrepreneurial state. It plans a £400 billion National Transformation Fund to underwrite renewable and low-carbon energy and transport, and the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d68bef84-07b8-11ea-a984-fbbacad9e7dd">phased nationalisation</a> of key industries. </p>
<p>Perhaps most significantly, the party’s proposal for a National Investment Bank, backed up by a network of Regional Development Banks, aims to shift how money is created in the economy. Loans (new money) will be given to projects that decarbonise the economy and increase productivity. The initiative effectively aims to shift money creation away from property and rent-seeking <a href="https://theconversation.com/ending-austerity-create-a-national-investment-bank-103559">towards more productive forms of investment</a>.</p>
<h2>Brexit, investment and immigration</h2>
<p>In terms of its impact on business, taking the UK out of the EU single market represents the Conservative Party’s most far-reaching policy.</p>
<p>On the whole, major UK-based businesses <a href="https://www.cbi.org.uk/media/3785/12543_programme-for-prosperity-manifesto.pdf">oppose looser ties with the EU</a> and are <a href="https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/carolyn-fairbairn-cbi-political-speeches-1-6380680">ambivalent about wholesale deregulation</a>. Brokering an <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/IFGJ5896-Brexit-Report-171214-final_0.pdf">all-encompassing deal</a> with the EU, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/eu-position-in-world-trade/index_en.htm">still the world’s largest economy</a>, and redrawing <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmintrade/520/520.pdf">trade and investment agreements</a> with other countries is enormously risky.</p>
<p>Beyond this, Brexit looks set to damage British-based business in several key respects. Businesses with complex, cross-border supply chains are concerned about the additional costs associated with administration, border delays and tariffs. Further, the Conservatives’ proposed increase in R&D tax credits is a drop in the ocean when set against estimates of the impact Brexit is projected to have on <a href="http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit03_technical_paper.pdf">foreign direct investment (FDI)</a> into the UK. </p>
<p>The proposal will reduce corporate tax bills among a relatively <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/413629/HMRC_WorkingPaper_17_R_D_Evaluation_Final.pdf">small number of large firms</a>, but is unlikely to boost investment significantly. The <a href="https://www.ippr.org/files/publications/pdf/cej-industrial-strategy-steering-change-in-the-uk-economy-november-2017.pdf">best estimate</a> suggests that between 57% and 80% of R&D tax credits are “dead weight”, subsidising spending which would have happened anyway. </p>
<p>Skills shortages after Brexit are also a key area of concern. Both the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a0c4c69c-092e-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67">CBI and British Chamber of Commerce</a> have taken issue with Conservative plans for a points-based immigration system.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306111/original/file-20191210-95120-ck4i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306111/original/file-20191210-95120-ck4i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306111/original/file-20191210-95120-ck4i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306111/original/file-20191210-95120-ck4i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306111/original/file-20191210-95120-ck4i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306111/original/file-20191210-95120-ck4i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306111/original/file-20191210-95120-ck4i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brexit will be a huge rupture for business.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/brexit-blue-european-union-flag-great-1134098342?src=ebdbf066-fae8-4697-bb39-64ee26c59742-1-4&studio=1">Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Labour’s plans on Brexit – a choice between remain or keeping the UK <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/85d1ebc4-0c55-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67">closely aligned with the EU</a> on trade, the environment and workers’ rights – sidestep many of these risks. On the face of it, they fit closely with the expressed wishes of business.</p>
<h2>Nationalisation and share transfers</h2>
<p>Where business and Labour seem furthest apart is on Labour’s nationalisation programme. The CBI has gone so far as to argue that Labour’s proposed programme of public ownership is “<a href="https://www.cbi.org.uk/articles/next-year-will-define-uk-for-a-generation/">at least as damaging</a>” as a hard Brexit. It <a href="https://www.cbi.org.uk/media/3785/12543_programme-for-prosperity-manifesto.pdf">says</a>: “Mass-scale state intervention [has] left business questioning the stability of the UK as an investment destination.” </p>
<p>Whether nationalisation would affect private investment in reality is a moot point. Much depends on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/24/power-firms-move-ownership-offshore-to-protect-against-labour-renationalisation">how industries are brought into public ownership</a>. As to broader questions concerning the relative advantages of private versus state ownership on productivity, efficiency and profitability, the evidence <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/apce.12092?casa_token=ZoxwPNu6G4wAAAAA%253ARBY9qHNaH8p-_AFvWlM9P2swYk4aXeADxHinKr4y7g4JcI4T__WtbTZssY9TTJ05RGoeBJf2wGK5pPH-">is contested</a>. </p>
<p>Labour’s other justifications for nationalisation – eliminating profiteering and ensuring greater access – are less contested, in part because they are driven more by political principle than evidence. What is clear is that the types of national ownership planned by Labour are commonplace in other major developed <a href="http://www.spokesmanbooks.com/acatalog/Dexter_Whitfield.html-">capitalist economies</a>.</p>
<p>Other areas of disagreement between Labour and business are taxation and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-labour-should-focus-on-putting-workers-on-boards-not-inclusive-ownership-funds-127473">transferring company shares to workers</a>. Labour’s <a href="https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf">promise to reverse</a> Tory cuts to corporation tax bucks the trend of successive governments, which have tried to reduce taxes on businesses. Meanwhile, the proposal that large companies set up <a href="https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf">Inclusive Ownership Funds</a> to give workers a stake in the companies they work for has also attracted <a href="https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/cbi-responds-to-labour-proposals-on-employee-ownership/">criticism from business</a>. </p>
<p>There are precedents elsewhere for both these policies and neither is strictly incompatible with profitability. They do, however, run against the prevailing UK business model.</p>
<p>Ultimately, there are major uncertainties about how Labour and Conservative policies will play out in practice. This is to be expected, given that both parties are proposing widespread interruption to “business as usual”. The Tories offer Brexit – Labour is proposing a radical rewriting of the UK’s business model. </p>
<p>In practice, businesses could thrive with either programme. In the febrile atmosphere of the current election campaign, what is often overlooked is that businesses do well in other nations which practice different varieties of capitalism.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKGE2019&utm_content=GEBannerB">Click here to subscribe to our newsletter if you believe this election should be all about the facts.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128437/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Farnsworth is a member of the Labour Party. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary Fooks is a member of the Labour Party.</span></em></p>The Conservatives and Labour have two radically distinct visions – but both propose widespread interruption to ‘business as usual’.Kevin Farnsworth, Reader in International Social Policy, University of YorkGary Fooks, Reader in Sociology and Public Policy, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1284912019-12-10T14:15:21Z2019-12-10T14:15:21ZYoung people can change the general election – here’s how to get your friends to vote<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306100/original/file-20191210-95111-1tc0fz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=117%2C960%2C5783%2C3834&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A record breaking <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/register-vote-deadline-record-young-labour-general-election-a9219391.html">3.85 million people</a> applied to register to vote in this election campaign, including <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-teenagers-uk-citizens-voters-first-time-920351">thousands of first-time voters</a>. All in all, two-thirds of applications came from <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/politics/news/108219/more-3-million-people-apply-vote-general-election-deadline-looms">young people aged 35 and under</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, young people are ready to be creative and think differently about this election. For example, 53% of students recently told the education think-tank HEPI they were <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/general-election-brexit-students-tactical-voting-eu-higher-education-policy-institute-a9188141.html">ready to vote tactically</a>, using tools such as <a href="http://tactical.vote">tactical.vote</a>.</p>
<p>So what can young people do this week to change the election? With just days left before the UK votes, it’s now or never for young voters. Here are three things young people can do that could change the result of the general election.</p>
<h2>1. Vote – and get others to vote too</h2>
<p>It’s a cold, hard fact that young people are not reliable voters. In 2017, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/08/world/europe/young-voters-uk-election-brexit.html">young voters upended the political campaign</a>. On election day some pollsters <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election">had the Conservatives leading by 12%-13% nationally</a> but the turnout of young people is credited, in large part, for Theresa May’s shock loss of her majority. Even so, only 40-50% of registered voters in their teens and twenties voted, compared to about 80% of those aged in their 70s. Whatever you make of the actual result in 2017, this shows how much influence young voters can have.</p>
<p>Young voters can learn from the climate strikes, which have blossomed so rapidly into a global movement <a href="http://eprints.keele.ac.uk/6536/1/Protest%20for%20a%20future_GCS%2015.03.19%20Descriptive%20Report-2.pdf">this year</a>. When building a movement, the personal is political. Climate strikers have been very good at sharing their commitment with schoolmates, classmates and friends, as well as strangers. And they do it by talking about their own personal feelings as well as the policy points.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1024&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1024&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1024&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young voters can learn a lot from the climate strikes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Drew / Ben Bowman</span></span>
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<p>So you could apply their approach to this election. Take a piece of paper and a pen. Write a list of people you can contact – especially your friends, but also people you have been to class with, or your workmates. </p>
<p>Next, write next to each name how you’ll contact them. For many years, studies have shown <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2004.00280.x">face-to-face contact is the most effective way</a> to get people out to vote. So if you can go talk to someone in person, it’s worth the effort. Failing that, a phone call is the next best thing. </p>
<p>Before you go speak to each voter you should think about what you’ll say. Honesty is the best policy. Why are you voting? Tell a story from your life about what motivates you to be a voter.</p>
<p>Tell them you’re a voter and, if you can, tell them others are doing it too. A lot of people feel like their vote doesn’t count, but knowing others are voters too gives them a sense that they’re part of something bigger. If you say: “I’m a voter, and so are Susan, John and Fatima, and you can be too”, that’s a lot more powerful than asking someone to vote alone. </p>
<p>If you’re backing a particular party, remember to say which one and why. It’s OK to be honest about where you’re coming from. You don’t have to be unbiased. Respect that your friends can make their own minds up for themselves, but let them know your decision too.</p>
<h2>2. Make a plan to vote, and help other people to plan</h2>
<p>Making a plan means knowing the facts.</p>
<ul>
<li><p><em>Do you know where to vote?</em>
Find your polling station on <a href="https://wheredoivote.co.uk/">https://wheredoivote.co.uk/</a>. Your polling station will open at 7am and close at 10pm. </p></li>
<li><p><em>Do you know how to vote?</em>
You don’t need ID, you don’t need your polling card. You just need to turn up at the polling station. If you’re registered to vote, then your ballot will be there. Lots of young people don’t know this, so you can remind them. Again, you don’t need ID.</p></li>
<li><p><em>Do you know when you will vote?</em>
Have a plan. Personally, I’ll vote in the morning before I start work, but the evening is just as good. When you call your friends, make sure you ask them if they have a plan too. Find out what time they’re going, and call to check up on them. </p></li>
<li><p><em>Emergency proxy voting</em>
In some circumstances – if due to an emergency based on disability, or an emergency based on your job – you may be able to give someone else permission to vote on your behalf. But the form needs to get to your electoral registration office by 5pm on polling day. Find out the restrictions and how to register for an emergency proxy vote <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/voter/voting-person-post-or-proxy/voting-proxy">here</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>3. Show some love</h2>
<p>Maybe this sounds silly, but it has been a hard election for a lot of people. You can make a difference to your friends and classmates by supporting them. Listen to them, and listen to how they feel. </p>
<p>If they disagree with you, don’t ask “why” questions that put them on the spot. Better to ask: “Could you tell me more about that?”, or: “Could you describe how that feels?”. </p>
<p>A lot of young people I work with have never had someone to listen to them – and when it comes to voting, they’ve heard it all before: vote or you’re lazy, vote or you lose your voice. But so many young people feel like they don’t have a voice to begin with. So take some time to listen. If they’re undecided on whether to vote, or who to vote for, offer to explain how you reached your choice.</p>
<p>Finally, if you speak to a friend who is totally committed to not voting, please remind them they can spoil their ballot. Spoiled ballots are counted in this country – and some even get read by the candidates.</p>
<hr>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKGE2019&utm_content=GEBannerC">Click here to subscribe to our newsletter if you believe this election should be all about the facts.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128491/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Bowman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Young people have registered to vote in record numbers. Here are three things every young person can do to change the election.Benjamin Bowman, Lecturer, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1283322019-12-09T14:31:34Z2019-12-09T14:31:34ZHow Labour lost working class support in UK’s ‘left behind’ regions<p>Labour is battling to retain a number of seats that have long been the party’s strongholds in the upcoming UK general election. Many of these areas are in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/04/bishop-auckland-toys-with-tories-in-once-unthinkable-revolution-labour">North of England</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/nov/22/peterborough-voters-we-need-to-give-people-hope-again">Midlands</a>. They are post-industrial parts of the country where there was a substantial vote to leave the European Union in 2016. Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party is leaning heavily on this, with its promise to “get Brexit done”.</p>
<p>To understand the appeal of Brexit in these areas and the disillusionment with Labour, we need to understand the huge economic challenges they face. Much of this is the result of austerity. More than simply public spending cuts, it’s important to <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/austerity-9780199389445?cc=gb&lang=en&">recognise austerity as an economic model</a>, which was first introduced by Margaret Thatcher’s government in the 1980s and has been embedded into the UK’s economic and social landscape since. </p>
<p>As well as cuts, austerity is a package of measures that includes privatisation, a regressive tax policy, reduction in wages and labour rights to make the workforce more “flexible”. Meanwhile, the attack on welfare has been a prominent feature of austerity. By 2020 there will be <a href="https://cpag.org.uk/sites/default/files/files/Austerity%20Generation%20FINAL.pdf">£27 billion less spending on social security than a decade earlier</a>. As the UN’s poverty expert Phillip Alston put it in his <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=23881&LangID=E">2019 report on Britain</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Many aspects of the design and rollout of [Universal Credit] have suggested that the [government] is more concerned with making economic savings and sending messages about lifestyles than responding to the multiple needs of those living with a disability, job loss, housing insecurity, illness, and the demands of parenting. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Loss of support</h2>
<p>The New Labour governments of the late 1990s and early 2000s were guilty of continuing the economic model introduced by Thatcher, and as a consequence <a href="https://policy.bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/the-rise-of-the-right">abandoning its core electorate</a>. This was a <a href="https://anthrosource.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/amet.12470">major reason</a> for the Brexit vote and a major loss of support <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/dec/13/corbyn-by-richard-seymour-review-the-strange-rebirth-of-radical-politics">among working class communities</a> for Labour. </p>
<p>For example, a <a href="https://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/default/files/jrf/migrated/files/2137-devolution-governance-deprivation.pdf">Joseph Rowntree Foundation study I was involved with</a> looked at policies for deprived regions carried out under the 2005-07 Labour government. It found that funding cuts, privatisation and contracting out of employment services were the dominant policy models. Regeneration initiatives lacked the necessary resources to tackle the economic and employment needs of people living in deprived areas. </p>
<p>These are regions that once provided well-paid, skilled jobs for communities, with opportunities for career progression. Now the main employers are warehousing, retail parks and call centres which tend to offer insecure, unskilled and low-paid work. </p>
<p>The 2008 financial crisis gave rise to Conservative-led governments implementing draconian policies. These had devastating impacts across the UK, but in particular the former industrial areas of the north and Midlands.
A <a href="https://www4.shu.ac.uk/research/cresr/sites/shu.ac.uk/files/state-of-the-coalfields.pdf">2014 report</a> into the economic and social conditions of the former coalfield areas of the UK – former industrial heartlands and historic Labour strongholds – concluded:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The miners’ strike of 1984-85 may now be receding into history but the job losses that followed in its wake are still part of the everyday economic reality of most mining communities. The consequences are still all too visible in statistics on jobs, unemployment, benefits and health.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This was in the wake of the recession. But the <a href="https://www.coalfields-regen.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/The-State-of-the-Coalfields-2019.pdf">follow-up 2019 report</a> found that the former coalfields still lag behind on a number of indicators. The local economies remain weak, large numbers of people remain out of work on incapacity benefits, while many others claim in-work benefits.</p>
<h2>Voting for change</h2>
<p>The city of Sheffield, once a centre of steel, manufacturing and coal industries is another Labour stronghold that voted to leave the EU, raising some challenges for Labour in the upcoming election. The city has been significantly affected by austerity-driven cuts to public services. A <a href="https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/polopoly_fs/1.645005!/file/SSDevolutionPolicy.pdf">recent study on the city region’s labour market</a>, which I completed, found that between 2010-14 welfare and local government cuts alone resulted in £1.19 billion lost income from the region. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://shura.shu.ac.uk/21918/3/Jeffery%20Forging%20an%20inclusive%20labour%20market.pdf">another study carried out in 2018</a>, colleagues and I found that regional wages are at a lower level than they were in 2008 and most employment growth has been low paid and insecure. Reliance on food banks is high and benefit sanctions are hurting people deemed “fit to work”, but who are sick or disabled. According to one citizens’ advice centre we spoke to:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Policies which are supposed to be about helping people to move closer to the labour market are in many cases damaging to health, self-defeating and at their very worst, causing deaths and contributing to suicides.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Sheffield city region is an area with relatively low educational attainment, where insecure and precarious work is the norm. It typifies the “left behind” parts of the country where there has been a shift in voting <a href="https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0962629818304712?token=417EA5B54E6CD656D013A6AEB8237AC9E0BF00CF7F8B18DEBA1DB047B9F806DF64DF0E6F6A8CDC486130A9EEF5F45C41">from Labour to the Conservatives or Brexit Party</a>. </p>
<p>Deindustrialisation also meant de-unionisation – the loss of thousands of trade union jobs and trade union infrastructure, which acted as an important voice and social glue in deprived areas. Ultimately, deindustrialised areas and working class communities became disenfranchised and vulnerable to poverty. This led to frustration and anger. </p>
<p>In the absence of a coherent alternative to austerity and, more importantly, a previous lack of active engagement by the Labour Party with its core electorate, a vote to leave the EU was a vote for change. And for some it was as an expression of protest.</p>
<p>Sociologist Peter Taylor Gooby <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/8D0699DE22785BA46D805022C25E0838/S0047279417000538a.pdf/redoubling_the_crises_of_the_welfare_state_the_impact_of_brexit_on_uk_welfare_politics.pdf">perceptively points out</a> that, through Brexit, elites closely linked to the Conservative government are positioning the UK within an increasingly globalised economy. The prospect is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/warnings-of-a-race-to-the-bottom-on-workers-pay-and-conditions-should-concern-us-all-126635">“race to the bottom”</a>, with the potential for market competition policies being used to reduce social protections and employment rights even further. </p>
<p>In many respects the Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn, along with the country’s trades unions, is attempting to steer the country in a direction that avoids this outcome. But the key challenge for them is engaging with and winning the confidence of marginalised working class populations.</p>
<hr>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKGE2019&utm_content=GEBannerB">Click here to subscribe to our newsletter if you believe this election should be all about the facts.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128332/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Etherington has received funding from Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>Years of austerity and growing inequality has left parts of the UK disenfranchised and frustrated.David Etherington, Professor of Local and Regional Economic Development, Staffordshire UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1284242019-12-06T15:50:02Z2019-12-06T15:50:02ZWhat do we know about voters who say ‘don’t know’ in election polls?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305641/original/file-20191206-90618-19pj0hl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With less than a week to go in the 2019 UK election, many people are undecided. And with margins so narrow, the people who still say they don’t know who they will vote for could have a significant influence on the outcome. </p>
<p>Ongoing research at the University of Manchester, using international survey data and in-depth interviews, is examining the nature of what it means to state that you “don’t know” when you are asked who you are going to vote for in an election.</p>
<p>“Don’t know” voters are often overlooked in the reporting of opinion polls. However, recent <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/25/can-undecided-voters-boost-labour">YouGov polling</a> has highlighted that 17% of people don’t know which way they are going to vote. <a href="https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-poll-general-election-2019-3/">ICM</a> put it at 12%. Women and younger people were more likely to say they don’t know.</p>
<p>Answering questions involves complex cognitive tasks. We have to understand the question, for a start, and then we have to retrieve the information we need to answer it from our memory before articulating it into an answer. A “don’t know” response can be driven by what is termed <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/acp.2350050305">satisficing</a> – where respondents take cognitive short cuts. Saying “I don’t know” could be an easy way to express more complex feelings of indifference or conflicted feelings. We might have a view but not want to express it or we might feel uncertain about our view because we don’t have enough knowledge about the question.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20447070">Research suggests</a> that ambivalence varies in relation to the information an individual has available, their motivation and their <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0049124112452527">cognitive style</a>. When people are overloaded with information they are more likely to say they don’t know when asked a question. Some survey respondents who answer “don’t know” can also take longer to answer, suggesting genuine uncertainty.</p>
<p>The 2019 UK election campaign has been characterised by an almost overwhelming number of policy promises (some of which overlap between parties) and what have been seen by many as unrealistic spending pledges. Indeed, information overload has been identified in our research with older voters. As one 73-year-old female interviewee commented:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s almost impossible to make your mind up about anything now. There’s too much information.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Torn loyalties</h2>
<p>Linked to this issue is evidence that party loyalty is in decline in the UK and vote switching is on the rise. Research by the <a href="https://assets.ctfassets.net/rdwvqctnt75b/7iQEHtrkIbLcrUkduGmo9b/cb429a657e97cad61e61853c05c8c4d1/Hansard-Society__Audit-of-Political-Engagement-16__2019-report.pdf">Hansard Society</a> found that only 34% of people are a “very” or “fairly” strong supporter of a political party. Evidence from the <a href="https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Explaining-Voter-Volatility.pdf">British Election Study</a> highlights increased levels of vote switching in recent elections including between supporters of the Conservative and Labour parties.</p>
<p>In recent research from <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/conservatives-maintain-polling-lead-four-ten-say-they-may-change-their-minds">Ipsos Mori</a>, 40% of people said they might change their mind about which party they will vote for ahead of the election. It also showed that 7% of people said “don’t know” when asked which policy issues will help them decide which party to support. Evidence suggests that people who voted Labour at the last election are more likely to state that they don’t know who they will vote for this time compared with Conservative supporters. And Labour voters who voted Leave in 2016 are the most likely to state they don’t know who they are going to vote for. </p>
<p>Political parties are not always clear about where they stand on particular issues and it can be questioned how believable their promises are. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/28/ifs-manifesto-verdict-neither-tories-nor-labour-have-credible-spending-plan">Institute for Fiscal Studies</a> has questioned the credibility of the policy spending promises of all the main parties.</p>
<p>Linked to this is that people feel powerless and that they have no influence over <a href="https://assets.ctfassets.net/rdwvqctnt75b/7iQEHtrkIbLcrUkduGmo9b/cb429a657e97cad61e61853c05c8c4d1/Hansard-Society__Audit-of-Political-Engagement-16__2019-report.pdf">political decision making</a>.</p>
<p>As one 82-year-old woman we interviewed commented:</p>
<p>“I always dedicated myself to voting, but I now don’t have any faith in the government and I’m not going to be a hypocrite, the politicians don’t care.”</p>
<p>In an age of information overload and uncertainty, it is important to respect people who are finding it difficult to make up their minds. Political parties and governments need to be held to account for their policy commitments both during an election and when in government. Alongside competing for voters, political parties should be able to agree on what works across as many policy areas as possible. There are too many long-term social problems, from child poverty and homelessness to social care and climate change, that get passed from one government to the next.</p>
<p>The “don’t knows” and how they vote will be an important factor in the outcome of the election, particularly if the Conservative lead in the polls starts to reduce. It is worth remembering that in the last general election, four seats were won with majorities of fewer than 25 votes – including Fife in Scotland, which was won, by a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000049">majority of only two votes</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128424/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kingsley Purdam has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph W. Sakshaug does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ever wondered why there are always so many people in the undecided column in an election poll?Kingsley Purdam, Senior Lecturer, University of ManchesterJoseph W. Sakshaug, Professor of Statistics, Ludwig Maximilian University of MunichLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1259552019-10-29T21:24:18Z2019-10-29T21:24:18ZUK general election is on: how it happened and what to expect now<p>The UK is heading for an election on December 12, following a series of votes in the House of Commons. The House of Lords must approve the move, but its backing seems almost certain, meaning the campaign for a pre-Christmas poll will formally begin within days. This followed hours of intense discussions and attempted amendments in the Commons, and a failed attempt by the opposition Labour Party to bring the vote forward to
December 9. </p>
<p>When he first moved into Downing Street as prime minister, Boris Johnson was <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUV8L0ql0fw">adamant</a> that he did not want an election. But more recently he has effectively been daring the opposition parties to allow him to have one. This u-turn comes as a result of his inability to secure a majority for his Brexit plans and a desire to repopulate parliament with MPs who would vote for his deal by the new deadline of January 31. He hopes that a “get Brexit done” platform can deliver him the majority he needs.</p>
<p>Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn had been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49552403">calling</a> for a general election when Johnson first became prime minister. But he soon shifted position, blocking a vote until the government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/27/labour-agree-election-boris-johnson-never-pursue-no-deal-brexit-jeremy-corbyn">guaranteed</a> that it wouldn’t take the UK out of the EU without a deal. Corbyn now says that this condition has effectively been met, at least for the time being, because the EU has granted a Brexit extension until January 31 2020. </p>
<p>However, the threat of a no deal has merely been delayed, not removed. A no-deal scenario is still very possible come February 2020 or indeed if Johnson’s Brexit deal is passed but no new trading arrangements are agreed before the end of a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-tony-blair-election-boris-johnson-labour-conservatives-a9172406.html">transition period</a>.</p>
<h2>A big gamble for both sides</h2>
<p>It is hard to ignore the fact that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/27/turkeys-wont-vote-for-christmas-when-the-polls-are-telling-them-theyll-be-stuffed">political expediency</a> – as well as Brexit concern – has been a key motivator in Labour’s delay tactics. Polls <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/tories-surge-to-16-point-lead-over-labour-poll-11846200">suggest</a> that Corbyn’s party might not fare all that well in this election and it is not necessarily in its interests for one to happen now.</p>
<p>However, there is a sense that Corbyn has run out of excuses. Despite being very unsuccessful in the legislature, Johnson and his team have been very good at controlling the narrative. Their criticisms of Labour have resonated, leaving Labour with little room to manoeuvre. The opposition has thus decided to risk an election, perhaps hoping for a repeat of its late surge in the 2017 election. There is also a chance that the increased pressures that winter puts on public services can play into Labour’s hands <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pa/article-abstract/68/1/4/2755188">as it challenges</a> a governing party that has enacted <a href="https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/9180">severe cuts</a> to public spending since 2010. </p>
<p>Corbyn has been unable to argue consistently or convincingly on <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/09/leader-labour-party-s-brexit-confusion">Britain’s departure from the EU</a>. His best shot, then, will be to focus on policy issues other than Brexit. With that in mind, he is already promising a “radical, hopeful” campaign, with an emphasis on running the country “for the many, not the few”. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1189173921867800584"}"></div></p>
<p>That said, Labour also needs Johnson to be damaged by his failure to take the UK out of the EU on October 31 as promised, so it can’t afford to ignore the issue entirely. It can marry the two themes by highlighting how Johnson’s Brexit deal <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/28/polls-labour-win-general-election">would be</a> bad for ordinary people. </p>
<h2>A big moment for small parties</h2>
<p>It was, in the end, a manoeuvre by the firmly anti-Brexit smaller parties the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP) that secured this election. Both had been hesitant about voting in favour of a poll until a no-deal scenario is well and truly off the table.</p>
<p>The logic of this is that an election could return a parliament that would be more amenable to their preferred Brexit outcomes and perhaps even facilitate a second referendum. However, it is a risky strategy. The Liberal Democrats did well in the European Parliament elections but this is <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/2019/10/28/the-empty-centre-why-the-liberal-democrats-need-to-demonstrate-competence-and-unity-to-win-votes/">no guarantee</a> that they will do as well in a national election. Despite bold dreams of a <a href="https://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dems-seize-election-initiative-calling-for-prebrexit-poll-on-9th-december-62452.html">Liberal Democrat majority</a>, it is more likely that the best the party could hope for is a coalition or deal with other parties to take control of the Brexit narrative. That will need Labour to do well too, and it is far from certain voters will deliver success for both parties.</p>
<h2>Electoral gamble</h2>
<p>This election is a big gamble for everyone involved. Johnson needs a good majority if he wants to “get Brexit done”. While the polls look good for him at the moment, a lot can and often do change once the campaigning begins. Anything short of a Tory majority could see the opposition parties band together to frustrate the Conservatives and perhaps even form a coalition. The Conservatives have very few allies with which they could do the same. </p>
<p>However, if the opposition parties can’t win enough seats, they may no longer have the power to stop Johnson and stall Brexit. The stakes could not be higher for the country or the party system itself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125955/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Stafford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It looked touch and go all day but MPs have ultimately voted for an election by a large majority.Chris Stafford, Doctoral Researcher, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1259582019-10-29T10:44:35Z2019-10-29T10:44:35ZThese are the pros and cons of every Brexit option left on the table<p>Boris Johnson’s mantra, ever since becoming prime minister, has been to <a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnsons-dodgy-delivery-is-only-fuelling-feelings-of-mistrust-123110">“get Brexit done”</a>. Yet the most striking feature of Brexit has been the <a href="https://theconversation.com/even-with-a-deal-even-with-an-election-these-brexit-questions-will-still-need-to-be-answered-125844">inability to deliver</a>. Every course of action available to the UK and EU is problematic, hence why the solution to the Brexit dilemma continues to evade even the most determined of politicians.</p>
<p>The various measures that have been considered remain as problematic as ever, despite the latest extension granted by the EU. On all these options, no consensus has emerged. Here’s why. </p>
<h2>Option 1: no-deal Brexit</h2>
<p><strong>Pros:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>Exit from the EU would be immediate, with no further delays.</p></li>
<li><p>The wind would be taken out of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-election-head-to-the-polls-in-haste-repent-the-result-at-leisure-125885">Brexit Party’s sails</a>, strengthening the Conservatives’ position as the party of Brexit. </p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Cons:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>Parliament has effectively blocked no deal thus far and can be expected to continue to do so.</p></li>
<li><p>The economic impact of leaving without a deal is widely forecast to be disastrous.</p></li>
<li><p>This would not spell the end of Brexit. The UK would still need to negotiate trade deals with European and global partners (in a much weakened position) and replace EU legislation with domestic legislation. Adjusting to life outside the EU would take years, if not decades.</p></li>
<li><p>The abrupt exit from the EU would necessitate a <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/irish-border-46135">hard border</a> between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Option 2: MPs vote for a deal</h2>
<p><strong>Pros:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>A deal would enable the UK to leave on terms carefully negotiated with the EU.</p></li>
<li><p>A deal voted on by parliament would respect the democratic process, being in accordance with both the referendum outcome and parliamentary democracy.</p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Cons:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>Some of those who voted for Johnson’s deal at the <a href="https://fullfact.org/europe/brexit-deal-not-passed-parliament/">second reading</a> made it clear that they did so not to support the legislation but to amend it. Major amendments proposed at the subsequent stages of the process could result in a bill that cannot garner a majority from any side, effectively taking the government back to square one.</p></li>
<li><p>Even if parliament did manage to pass an amended bill with a majority, there is no guarantee that this bill would then get EU approval.</p></li>
<li><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-whats-in-it-and-how-is-it-different-to-theresa-mays-version-125446">current proposal for Northern Ireland</a> has met fierce opposition from the DUP, which says it threatens Northern Ireland’s position in the UK.</p></li>
<li><p>Scotland voted to remain and could push for a second independence referendum if taken out of the EU against its will.</p></li>
<li><p>The deal only covers the initial stages of Brexit. Negotiations are still needed for the next stages, which (at best) would result in several more years of wrangling, disagreement and uncertainty.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Option 3: election</h2>
<p><strong>Pros:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>If a newly elected parliament provides a single party with a majority, the deadlock will be broken and it will be much easier to move forward.</p></li>
<li><p>Any party elected with a majority at a general election can then claim to have a strong democratic mandate for their version of Brexit.</p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Cons:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>Parliament has already voted multiple times against holding an election and although the Liberal Democrats may have found a way out, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/28/no-10-says-it-could-back-lib-dem-plan-for-9-december-election">it’s looking tricky.</a></p></li>
<li><p>The Conservatives are wary of heading into an election without any headway on Brexit, given that past delays have increased support for the Brexit Party.</p></li>
<li><p>Labour is even more wary of heading into an election, given that it continues to poll behind the Conservatives.</p></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><p>Many voters don’t want to cast their votes solely on the basis of their view on Brexit. There are many other issues at stake in an election, including all other areas of policy, and feelings about the respective party leaders. Voters might feel forced to choose between a party with whom they agree on Brexit, and a party with whom they agree on other things. This further muddies the waters for anyone hoping for a clear Brexit mandate following the election.</p></li>
<li><p>There is a significant risk that an election will not solve anything; there may simply be another hung parliament and another muddled mandate on Brexit.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Option 4: second referendum</h2>
<p><strong>Pros:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>The initial referendum was based on limited information about what Brexit would entail. Now that people have a clearer idea of the issues at stake, a confirmatory vote would be appropriate.</p></li>
<li><p>Polls indicate that the “will of the people” has <a href="https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-there-was-a-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-how-would-you-vote-2/">shifted</a>, reducing the legitimacy of the previous referendum outcome.</p></li>
<li><p>If the public votes again to leave, this puts pressure on parliament to deliver a deal, and silences opposition to Brexit.</p></li>
<li><p>If the public votes to remain, the Brexit headache could potentially be resolved swiftly by revoking Article 50.</p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Cons:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>The wording of a referendum would be extremely contentious. One of the many issues at stake would be how many options to include. The main options would be to remain; to leave with the proposed deal; to leave with no deal. If all three were on the ballot, none would secure an absolute majority of votes. If any one of these options was removed, the outcome would be contested. Some form of preferential voting would probably be necessary.</p></li>
<li><p>The country is still deeply divided. Any outcome would likely provide only a slender mandate for the victorious side, while remaining fiercely contested by the losing side.</p></li>
<li><p>Many people would still be casting their votes from a position of relative ignorance. Few people have actually read the withdrawal agreement and most voters don’t appreciate that the deal is only the first stage of a protracted negotiation process. There is also the threat of misinformation. Both sides were accused of lying during the 2016 referendum and it would be naïve to assume more scrupulous behaviour this time around.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Option 5: remain</h2>
<p><strong>Pros:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>Revoking Article 50 is the fastest way to resolve the Brexit dilemma. Negotiations would cease and the UK can return to thinking about other issues. </p></li>
<li><p>The economic damage caused by Brexit (not least by the uncertainty that it has provoked) would be eased.</p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Cons:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>As neither of the largest political parties would contest an election on a platform of revoking article 50, the only way to achieve a mandate for this would be via a referendum. There is no guarantee that this outcome would gain popular support.</p></li>
<li><p>Without a popular mandate, there is insufficient political support to pursue this course of action.</p></li>
<li><p>If politicians did decide to revoke article 50 without a clear mandate to do so, this would create a democratic crisis.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Bamboozled</h2>
<p>All told, the lack of clear ways out of the Brexit impasse means that regardless of what the next few days and weeks bring, Brexit is likely to continue to bring chaos to the political, social and economic fabric for a long time to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125958/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rainbow Murray is a member of the Women's Equality Party.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Pettitt is member of the Liberal Democrats.</span></em></p>There are five possible options left for the UK, but which is the most likely to work?Rainbow Murray, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University of LondonRobin Pettitt, Senior Lecturer in Comparative Politics, Kingston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1217062019-08-14T09:57:41Z2019-08-14T09:57:41ZIs the UK ready for an election? Inside a system straining at the seams<p>Speculation has it that an <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49004486">early general election</a> is around the corner for the UK.</p>
<p>If it does come, it won’t be the country’s first unexpected election this year. The European parliamentary elections were not supposed to happen. But happen they did. And they didn’t go to plan. There were angry scenes at polling stations when many EU citizens were <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/2019/05/30/deniedmyvote-why-many-eu-citizens-were-unable-to-vote-in-the-european-parliament-elections/">denied their right to vote</a>. The government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jul/12/government-taken-to-court-by-eu-citizens-denied-their-right-to-vote">faces a judicial review</a> over these incidents after campaign group the3million claimed EU citizens had been “systematically disenfranchised”.</p>
<p>And these problems were not necessarily a one-off. Electoral officials on the ground have done an outstanding job in recent years at operating under a perfect storm of pressures. But these pressures are gathering pace, putting the functioning of the system under threat. They’ve been able to just about paper over the cracks in a crumbling Victorian system in need of repair. But they may not be able to keep it all together much longer. </p>
<h2>The eight million missing</h2>
<p>The 2019 elections were not the only example of citizens showing up to vote and being turned away. This happens, research suggests, at all electoral events in the UK. In the 2015 general election, two-thirds of polling stations turned away <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/clark-james-poll-workers.pdf">at least one voter</a>. The most recent estimates are that <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/The-December-2015-electoral-registers-in-Great-Britain-REPORT.pdf">roughly 8m people are not correctly registered</a>. This means that they are missing from the register entirely or registered at an old address.</p>
<p>This problem has been growing over several decades, but was made worse by recent reforms to require everyone to <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Comparative-Electoral-Management-Performance-Networks-and-Instruments/James/p/book/9781138682412">register individually</a>. In the past, one person in a household could register everyone in it. Reforms introduced in 2014 require everyone to add their own name to register.</p>
<p>It is more of a problem for some communities than others. <a href="https://fabians.org.uk/missing-millions/">The register</a> is less complete in urban areas (especially London) and among recent movers and private renters. Commonwealth and EU nationals, non-white ethnicities, lower socioeconomic groups, citizens with mental disabilities and young people are all also more likely to be incorrectly registered or not registered at all.</p>
<h2>Electoral services under financial strain</h2>
<p>Public sector resources have been limited for a sustained period. Cash crises in the NHS and schools have regularly made headlines. But there has been a silent crisis in electoral services departments, too. Funding for elections is provided by central government, but local authorities have to pay for the work needed to compile the electoral register. Recent <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/funding-elections-single-pages.pdf">research</a> has shown that these departments are increasingly underfunded, with more and more electoral services reporting that they were running over budget.</p>
<p>One major contributing factor to this was, again, the move to individual electoral registration. Local authorities had to spend more on stationary and staff to reach voters and process online applications. They received extra cash to ease the transition in the short term, but this funding is due to end. They are therefore about to be left with an electoral registration system that will be more expensive to run, while cuts to local government budgets continue. </p>
<p>Service cutbacks have been silently made for many years. As costs rose and budgets shrank, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09540962.2017.1351834">voter engagement work was jettisoned</a> as a “nice extra” rather than an essential public service to encourage people to have their say at the ballot box. Meanwhile, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0192512119829516">staff workloads and levels of stress</a> have been shown to be excessively high by international standards.</p>
<p>These are the conditions under which we might see <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/2018/08/15/audit2018-are-uk-elections-conducted-with-integrity-with-sufficient-turnout/">more people fall off the register</a>, <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/2018/08/15/audit2018-are-uk-elections-conducted-with-integrity-with-sufficient-turnout/">the gap between young and old increase</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/voter-id-our-first-results-suggest-local-election-pilot-was-unnecessary-and-ineffective-100859">more people turned away from polling stations</a>. They are the pressured conditions under which errors might occur during the stress of the day if staff have limited time to prepare. They are the conditions where we might see scenes such as voters locked out of polling stations, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/07/election-polling-stations-lock-out">they were in 2010</a>.</p>
<h2>Victorian practices</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, elections involve archaic Victorian practices and in many areas lack transparency. If you want to complain, as many citizens did when they were turned away at the European elections, there can be major confusion about who to complain to.</p>
<p>Some write to their MP, some to the Electoral Commission and others (rightly) to their local Returning Officer. But there is no central complaints process – or system for counting how many complaints are received, which could usefully inform policy in the future. The officials who run elections and electoral registration are oddly exempt from Freedom of Information requests and it would be illegal to audit an election.</p>
<p>An overwhelming reason why people are not registered is because they think they already are. They assume that public bodies are coordinated and clever enough to share information. If I pay council tax, why can’t that information be shared with electoral services? The public assumes that this information is passed seamlessly onto the people handing out ballots in polling stations. Such common sense connected thinking doesn’t exist, however. Instead, voters are all asked to register individually – and valuable resources are spent reminding them to do so. Rather than having one single electoral register, the UK has 372. There is a patchwork of local registers held by local registration officers for their respective areas.</p>
<p>In a new report, <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2019/08/missing-millions-still-missing-pages.pdf">The Missing Millions, Still Missing</a>, my colleagues and I make recommendations on how elections can be upgraded by 2025 to bring about a modern, inclusive electoral process. They include providing a website so people can check if they are registered, registering young people in schools and universities, providing a centralised complaints system and allowing citizens to vote at any polling station.</p>
<p>Some reforms require some behind the scenes election-gadgetry, such as a single electoral register, digitally connected polling stations and in the long-term automatic registration. Voters will care little about many of these – but they are all central to upgrading British elections. </p>
<p>In preparation for a snap 2019 election, the best that can be done is to give electoral officials as much resource and notice as possible. But strategic planning should begin now to upgrade UK democracy for 2025.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toby James has received funding from the AHRC, ERSC, Nuffield Foundation, McDougall Trust, Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust.
He is Lead Fellow on Electoral Modernisation for the All Party Parliamentary Group on Democratic Participation.. </span></em></p>Voters complained of being turned away from polling stations in the European elections, and local teams are struggling to keep registers up to date on tight budgets.Toby James, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1210582019-07-30T09:04:21Z2019-07-30T09:04:21ZHow Boris Johnson can win a snap election – and what the others can do to stop him<p>The hard line over Brexit taken by Boris Johnson in his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/jul/25/boris-johnson-first-statement-as-pm-to-the-house-of-commons-video-highlights">first speech</a> in the House of Commons as prime minister suggests a strategy that will inevitably lead to an early general election.</p>
<p>His position is that Britain must leave the EU on October 31 “do or die”, and if the EU wants a deal it will have to drop the <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-why-is-the-irish-border-backstop-so-crucial-to-securing-a-brexit-deal-113398">Irish backstop</a>. This is a classic game of chicken, but outgoing European Commission president, Jean-Claude Junker, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/25/michel-barnier-boris-johnsons-combative-rhetoric-targets-eu-unity">has already rejected the idea</a>, saying the current deal is “the best and only agreement possible”. </p>
<p>The truth is that the new prime minister does not expect the EU to change its mind. Instead, he could engineer a snap general election to get a majority in the House of Commons to deliver a no-deal Brexit. It should be fairly easy to trigger an election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, which requires such a motion – which can be tabled by any party – to be supported by two thirds of the House of Commons. Opposition parties would be forced to support such a move, much as they did in 2017 when Theresa May called a snap election. </p>
<p>But can Johnson win the subsequent election? The chart below shows the (smoothed) trends in voting intentions in the 122 polls conducted between November 2018 and July 27 2019, which includes the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/27/boris-bounce-lifts-tories-at-expense-of-brexit-party-poll-shows">“Boris Bounce”</a> – polls show the Tories have become more popular since Johnson was elected.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286059/original/file-20190729-43140-15w1ui1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286059/original/file-20190729-43140-15w1ui1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286059/original/file-20190729-43140-15w1ui1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286059/original/file-20190729-43140-15w1ui1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286059/original/file-20190729-43140-15w1ui1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286059/original/file-20190729-43140-15w1ui1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286059/original/file-20190729-43140-15w1ui1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Perhaps most obviously, the chart highlights the dire consequences for the Conservative Party of missing the March 29 deadline for leaving the EU – support for it plummeted afterwards. Labour, however, suffered a similar fate because it refused to pick a side in the great schism that is Brexit, delivering in the process large numbers of votes to the Liberal Democrats in the European parliament elections.</p>
<p>These failures effectively crashed the two-party system, which by the time of the May 2019 European parliamentary elections had turned into a four-party system – with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigel-farage-triumphs-survey-reveals-what-drove-voters-to-the-brexit-party-in-the-european-elections-117865">Brexit Party sweeping in</a> to fill the void left by the Conservatives. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-wisdom-of-crowds-proves-effective-predictor-of-britains-chaotic-eu-departure-119906">Brexit: wisdom of crowds proves effective predictor of Britain's chaotic EU departure</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So what would be Johnson’s strategy to win an early election? First, he will almost certainly blame the EU for the breakdown of Brexit negotiations and take a hard line over the issue in order to win back Brexit Party voters and any other pro-Leave voters from other parties. </p>
<p>He will try to dominate the media over this issue in the run-up to an election, and thereby suck the air out of any rival campaigning by Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party. If the strategy succeeds and takes the lion’s share of the Brexit Party vote, then the Conservatives could win a snap election with more than 40% of the vote. </p>
<p>The second part of Johnson’s strategy will be to neutralise the damage caused by ten years of austerity policies, particularly among working-class Labour voters in the North of England. To this end, expect more <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/28/boris-johnson-heads-to-scotland-to-deliver-300m-pledge">government promises of largesse</a> for the NHS, for schools and other public services to follow on from the pledge already made to hire <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-police-officers-20000-relationship-sajid-javid-a9022871.html">20,000 new police officers</a>.</p>
<h2>Johnson vs Corbyn</h2>
<p>One advantage for the Conservatives is that Jeremy Corbyn is currently very unpopular – and growing more so over time, as the chart below shows. This is going to make it difficult for the Labour leader to repeat his success in the 2017 general election, when his barnstorming campaign led to an impressive result for his party. It is also worth remembering that he was opposed by the hapless May in that election, rather than the wily Johnson. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285885/original/file-20190726-43126-10zy04r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285885/original/file-20190726-43126-10zy04r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285885/original/file-20190726-43126-10zy04r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285885/original/file-20190726-43126-10zy04r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285885/original/file-20190726-43126-10zy04r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285885/original/file-20190726-43126-10zy04r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285885/original/file-20190726-43126-10zy04r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/24/voting-intention-con-25-lib-dem-23-lab-19-brex-17">A July 24 YouGov poll</a> also shows that Johnson has a personal advantage over Corbyn, with 38% saying Johnson would make the best prime minister as opposed to only 20% who favour Corbyn. Similarly, our post-EU election survey showed that half liked Johnson more than Corbyn, and only 36% liked the <a href="https://theconversation.com/survey-suggests-wider-public-would-have-preferred-boris-johnson-against-michael-gove-in-conservative-leadership-contest-119249">Labour leader more than Johnson</a>.</p>
<p>The obvious counter strategy for Labour is to come out strongly for Remain, winning back voters who deserted to the Liberal Democrats and hopefully capture some Conservative Remain voters as well. This could lose the party some working-class Brexit voters, and Labour will want these to be divided between the Brexit and Conservative parties, thereby splitting the anti-Labour vote.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-boris-johnson-draws-on-the-past-to-rule-in-the-present-with-a-little-help-from-myth-120863">How Boris Johnson draws on the past to rule in the present – with a little help from myth</a>
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<p>Consequently, Labour should ignore the Brexit Party and Farage in its campaigning, and launch a ferocious preemptive strike on Tory austerity policies and Johnson himself. Johnson is inclined to play fast and loose with the truth, something which got him sacked from his job as a Times journalist <a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-by-numbers-the-new-uk-prime-ministers-career-summed-up-120787">when he made up a quote</a>. This makes him vulnerable to the charge “Boris the Liar”.</p>
<p>A combined anti-austerity and pro-Remain campaign, which gets many of the half a million Labour party members, thousands of public sector workers and trade unionists, and strong Remain supporters onto the streets is needed, and it should start in September. Such a campaign should be accompanied by a massive social media push, which party members can spearhead.</p>
<h2>No more ‘Project Fear’</h2>
<p>Labour also needs to recognise that <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1155003/Brexit-latest-news-project-fear-OBR-brexit-report-no-deal-brexit">“Project Fear”</a> – the pro-Remain strategy to highlight the dire economic consequences of leaving the EU – didn’t work. A positive narrative on EU membership is needed instead and the key to that is an appeal to young voters who have a very different take on this issue to older people. </p>
<p>Indeed, the <a href="https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/">2017 Labour manifesto</a> floated a number of ideas helpful to young people on infrastructure investment and education. These gained traction and helped the party to win overwhelming majorities of this important demographic in that election.</p>
<p>Corbyn is still much more popular among millennials than he is among older voters. In <a href="https://theconversation.com/survey-suggests-wider-public-would-have-preferred-boris-johnson-against-michael-gove-in-conservative-leadership-contest-119249">our recent survey</a>, his average score on a 0 (strongly dislike) to 10 (strongly like) scale was 4.9 among those aged 18 to 29, and declined steadily to a dismal 1.9 among those aged 65 or older. This large difference shows that Labour would be wise to “weaponise” age by doing all it can to mobilise the youth vote. </p>
<p>The UK is deeply polarised and a snap election will be fought on Leave versus Remain, young versus old, and haves versus have-nots. Attempts to fudge these divisions will no longer work.</p>
<p>Expect an election before the end of the year – and a very hard-fought campaign.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Whiteley receives funding from the British Academy and the ESRC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harold D Clarke has received funding from National Science Foundation (US)</span></em></p>If the strategy succeeds, the Tories could win a snap election with 40% of the vote.Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexHarold D Clarke, Ashbel Smith Professor, University of Texas at DallasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/792622017-06-12T13:55:43Z2017-06-12T13:55:43ZWhy the hung parliament spells economic turbulence for the UK economy<p>Theresa May’s snap election wager has backfired. The supposed “Brexit election” was intended to signal the public’s support for the prime minister’s approach to the UK’s departure from the European Union. Instead, it has left her incredibly weak, without even a majority in government and her future as leader uncertain. And the economic data reflects this. </p>
<p>Markets <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-why-uncertainty-is-bad-for-economies-64334">hate uncertainty</a>. One measure that tracks this is the UK’s <a href="http://www.policyuncertainty.com/uk_daily.html">index of Economic Policy Uncertainty</a>, which shows diminishing confidence around the country’s economic resilience. It is calculated by tracking daily articles relating to economic and political unrest in more than 650 newspapers in the UK. The higher the number, the more turbulent the economic outlook. The index surged from 286 on May 18, 2017 to a staggering peak of 521 on June 8 2017, the day of the general election.</p>
<p>This is significant because higher levels of uncertainty are <a href="http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/EPU_BBD_Mar2016.pdf">associated</a> with greater stock price volatility and reduced investment and employment in key areas of the economy like healthcare and infrastructure. </p>
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<p>The UK’s rising uncertainty levels stretch back to its EU referendum on June 23, 2016. Since then, GDP growth increased by only <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/pn2">0.84%</a> while inflation rose by <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bt/mm23">1.09%</a>. Uncertainty around the UK’s future relationship with the EU and the Brexit negotiations has caused sharp movements in currency markets as a result of investors hedging their bets and speculating on trades. The day after the referendum, the euro to sterling exchange rate fell by a massive 6.2% overnight, while economic policy uncertainty hit a <a href="http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/Brexit_Graphs.pdf">record value of 2,661</a>. It fell a further 5.1% from June 2016 to May 2017 and 3.42% during the month of May 2017, alone. </p>
<p>The next graph shows the daily linkages between the euro to sterling exchange rate changes and economic policy uncertainty since May triggered <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/604079/Prime_Ministers_letter_to_European_Council_President_Donald_Tusk.pdf">Article 50</a> on March 29, 2017. A negative value implies that as the uncertainty index increases, the sterling to euro exchange rate tends to fall. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173366/original/file-20170612-10242-j8r0ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173366/original/file-20170612-10242-j8r0ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173366/original/file-20170612-10242-j8r0ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173366/original/file-20170612-10242-j8r0ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173366/original/file-20170612-10242-j8r0ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173366/original/file-20170612-10242-j8r0ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173366/original/file-20170612-10242-j8r0ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>It is clear that the negative relationship between policy uncertainty and the euro to sterling exchange rate is intensifying. This implies that increases in economic policy uncertainty are met with depreciations in the sterling to euro exchange rate running up to June 9, 2017.</p>
<h2>Downward direction</h2>
<p>Amid the result of a hung parliament, the euro to sterling exchange rate changed from €1.154/£1 on June 8 (the day of the election) to €1.139/£1 on June 9, 2017 (when the result became clear); an overnight plummet of over 1.25%. When comparing this change with June 24, 2016, the fall does not seem too severe, but the key issue is whether sterling will continue to depreciate against the euro. </p>
<p>The chart below shows the actual euro to sterling exchange rate changes from May 18, 2017 to June 9, 2017 and forecast ranges for the next few days. Although these forecasts suggest the possibility that sterling could bounce back, the lower bound implies that by June 14, sterling could be as much as 2.3% lower – relative to the euro – than the day before. The fact that sterling has been falling – reaching a low of €1.131/£1 just before midday – since markets opened on June 12, suggests that it is going in one direction. Down. </p>
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<p>Brexiteers <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-does-a-lower-pound-boost-manufacturing-77052">argue</a> that export-led businesses in the UK will benefit from a favourable exchange rate. Indeed, the UK exports 44% of its goods and services to the euro area and with persistent depreciations in sterling relative to the euro, this makes UK exports more competitive. </p>
<p>This is all well and good while the UK is still a member of the single market. In the longer-term, the absence of free trade, coupled with the possibility of a sour deal, points toward the imposition of tariffs on UK exports. In turn, euro area nations may be encouraged to (freely) trade with remaining EU member states for comparable goods and services; a threat that businesses regard a risk <a href="http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/agentssummary/2017/may.pdf">at a three year horizon</a>.</p>
<h2>A lack of credibility</h2>
<p>So the markets are clearly unconvinced of the prime minister’s message of strength and stability. The next graph shows the daily exchange rate volatility between the euro and sterling over the election campaign period. The daily volatility of exchange rate changes on June 9, the day after the election, was 0.35%, a staggering 0.2 percentage points higher than a month earlier. It shows the markets are worried.</p>
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<p>This rising exchange rate volatility also hurts export-led firms. It results in them acting cautiously, as their future earnings and investments remain exposed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-does-a-lower-pound-boost-manufacturing-77052">the risk of exchange rate fluctuations</a>. </p>
<p>The implication here is that currency markets do not feel the government’s current position for Brexit negotiations is strong. This, coupled with May’s lack of support in the general election, should put her leadership into question, particularly when it comes to entering divorce talks with the EU. The very fact that the domestic political landscape of the UK is shrouded by yet another layer of uncertainty suggests that economic policy, the exchange rate, and indeed the wider economy, is in for a rough ride.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79262/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Ellington received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council to complete his PhD from October 2013 to October 2016.</span></em></p>Markets hate uncertainty and the economic data reflects the turbulent nature of British politics.Mike Ellington, Research Associate in Finance, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/792372017-06-10T16:50:51Z2017-06-10T16:50:51ZReport card: how well did UK election forecasters perform this time?<p>When Theresa May announced on April 18 that she would call a snap general election, most commentators viewed the precise outcome of the vote as little more than a formality. The Conservatives were sailing more than 20% ahead of the Labour party in a number of opinion polls, and most expected them to be swept back into power with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/snap-election-a-win-win-for-theresa-may-shell-crush-labour-and-make-brexit-a-little-easier-76362">hefty majority</a>.</p>
<p>Even after a campaign blighted by manifesto problems and two terrorist attacks, the Conservatives were by election day still comfortably ahead in most polls and in the betting markets. According to the spread betting markets, they were heading for an overall majority north of 70 seats, while a number of forecasting methodologies projected that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour could end up with fewer than 210. </p>
<p>In particular, an <a href="https://betting.betfair.com/politics/uk-politics/general-election-2017-final-predictions-070617-171.html">analysis</a> of the favourite in each of the seats traded on the <a href="http://betfairpredicts.com/">Betfair market</a> gave the Tories 366 seats and Labour 208. The <a href="http://predictwise.com/">Predictwise</a> betting aggregation site gave the Conservatives an 81% chance of securing an overall majority of seats, in line with the large sums of money trading on the Betfair exchange. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.predictit.org/Contract/6154/Will-the-Conservatives-win-329-or-fewer-seats-in-the-2017-UK-snap-election#data">PredictIt</a> prediction market, meanwhile, estimated just a 15% chance that the Tories would secure 329 or fewer seats in the House of Commons (with 326 technically required for a majority), while the <a href="https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics">Oddschecker</a> odds comparison site rated a “hung parliament” result an <a href="https://archive.is/vbSEk">11/2 chance</a> (an implied probability of 15.4%). Only the <a href="http://www.almanis.com/">Almanis</a> crowd forecasting platform expressed any real doubt, putting the chance of a Conservative overall majority at a relatively paltry 62%.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results">In reality</a>, the Conservative party lost more than a dozen seats net, ending up with 318 – eight short of a majority. Labour secured 262 seats, the Scottish National party 35, and the Liberal Democrats 12. Their projected vote shares are 42.4%, 40%, 3% and 7.9% respectively.</p>
<p>So did the opinion polls do any better than the betting markets? With the odd exception, no. </p>
<h2>Out of the ballpark</h2>
<p>In their final published polls, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/07/tories-on-12-point-lead-over-labour-in-final-pre-election-poll">ICM</a> put the Tories on 46%, up 12% on Labour. <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk/politics/election-poll-latest-tory-win-results-corbyn-theresa-may-a7777781.html">ComRes</a> predicted the Tories would score 44% with a 10-point lead. <a href="http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/herald-bmg-research-final-voting-intention-poll-gives-tories-13-lead/">BMG Research</a> was even further out, putting the Conservatives on 46% and a full 13% clear of Labour. <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/two-methods-one-commitment-yougovs-polling-and-mod/">YouGov</a> put the Tories seven points clear of Labour (though their constituency-level model did a lot better), as did <a href="http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-4th-june-2017/">Opinium</a>; <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-final-election-poll-2017?language_content_entity=en-uk">Ipsos MORI</a> and <a href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/">Panelbase</a> had them eight points clear on 44%.</p>
<p>Other polls were at least in the ballpark. Kantar Public put the Tories 5% ahead of Labour, and SurveyMonkey (for the Sun) called the gap at 4%. <a href="http://survation.com/conservative-lead-labour-dropped-16-points-month-whats-going/">Survation</a>, the firm closest to the final result in their unpublished 2015 poll, this time put the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 40%, very close to the actual result. Qriously (for <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner">Wired</a>)was the only pollster to put Labour ahead, by three points.</p>
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<p>According to the <a href="http://electionforecast.co.uk/">2017 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast</a> polling model, the Conservatives were heading for 366 seats, Labour 207, and the Liberal Democrats seven. Allowing for statistical uncertainty, the projection was of an “almost certain” overall majority for the Conservatives. The probability of a hung parliament was put at just 3%. All misses – though that doesn’t necessarily reflect on the model, which after all can only be as good as the polls fed into it.</p>
<p>Many others were wrong, too. The 2017 <a href="https://electionsetc.com/">General Election Combined Forecast</a>, which aggregates betting markets and polling models, forecast a Conservative majority of 66 seats. Other “expert” forecasts came from <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872692409091723264">Britain Elects</a> (Tories 356 seats, Labour 219 seats), <a href="http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/estimated-conservative-majority-rises-final-ashcroft-model-update/">Ashcroft</a> (363, 217), <a href="http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html">Electoral Calculus</a> (358, 218), <a href="https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/872578720866992128">Matt Singh</a> (374, 207), <a href="https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-election-2017-forecast-1-latest-prediction/">Nigel Marriott</a> (375, 202), <a href="https://twitter.com/election_data/status/872509420336447491">Election Data</a> (387, 186), <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-win-election-2017-majority-local-elections-result-analysis-a7720771.html">Michael Thrasher</a> (349, 215), <a href="http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2017/05/07/general-election-2017-seat-by-seat-predictions-final-totals-we-re-heading-for-a-conservative-majority-of-130ish">Iain Dale</a> (392, 163) and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/06/can-people-rather-than-pollsters-accurately-predict-thursdays-u-k-election/?utm_term=.07ec4382bf8b">Andreas Murr and his colleagues</a> (361, 236).</p>
<p>So what went wrong?</p>
<h2>A moving target</h2>
<p>In the wake of the 2015 election, the Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s victory, forecasters are getting used to fielding that question. But the answer isn’t that difficult: the problem is in quantifying the key factor in the common forecasting meltdown in advance. That factor is turnout, and notably relative turnout by different demographics.</p>
<p>In the Brexit referendum and <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/">2016 US presidential election</a>, turnout by <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-new-eur-referendum-bbc-analysis-age-race-educational-qualification_uk_58986ffce4b0a1dcbd02faf7">poorer and less educated voters</a>, especially outside urban areas, hit unprecedentedly high levels, as people who had never voted before (and may never vote again) came out in droves. In both cases, forecasters’ pre-vote turnout models had predicted that these voters wouldn’t show up in nearly the numbers they did. </p>
<p>In the 2017 election, it was <a href="https://theconversation.com/surge-in-young-voters-is-the-first-sign-of-a-return-to-proud-working-class-politics-79218">turnout among the young</a> in particular that rocketed. This time the factor was <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-pollsters-put-their-methods-to-the-test-and-turnout-is-the-key-78778">widely expected to matter</a>, and indeed get-out-the-vote campaigns aimed at the young were based on it. But most polling models failed to properly account for it, and that meant their predictions were wrong. </p>
<p>Polling is a moving target, and the spoils go to those who are most adept at taking and changing aim. So will the lesson be learned for next time? Possibly. But next time, under-25s might not turn out in anything like the same numbers – or a different demographic altogether might surprise everyone. We might not have long to wait to find out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79237/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leighton Vaughan Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hitting a moving target is hard, and young people don’t always do what’s expected.Leighton Vaughan Williams, Professor of Economics and Finance and Director, Betting Research Unit & Political Forecasting Unit, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/792182017-06-10T10:41:30Z2017-06-10T10:41:30ZSurge in young voters is the first sign of a return to proud working-class politics<p>The conventional wisdom on polling day was that Britain’s young voters would probably back Labour. Some polls found that as many as <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-results-latest-youth-vote-swings-for-labour-jeremey-corbyn-hung-parliament-a7780966.html">63% of under-24s</a> supported Jeremy Corbyn’s party. But before the polls closed, it was also received wisdom that young people would turn out at dramatically lower rates than their older counterparts. Everyone knows the story of young abstention: since the 1990s, young people have been harangued and pestered with celebrity endorsements, catchy slogans and broken promises in attempts to get them voting. But time and again, the majority vote of the young has been no vote at all.</p>
<p>The political establishment generally offers two inadequate explanations. One is poor engagement: the idea that while there’s nothing essentially wrong with the politics on offer, young people just don’t bother to sign up for it. The other is apathy: that young people are now so worn down by years of austerity and hopelessness that they’re stuck in their own little bubbles trying to somehow find a home and a job and make it to middle age, all the while too busy and exhausted to get educated, interested or organised.</p>
<p>These ideas are wrong. Young people aren’t different to the rest of the population. They need the same things in life. An income to rely on, a place to live and raise a family, and hope for themselves and the world around them. For too long they’ve been overlooked, treated like an outlier group of defective voters who would never participate in politics because they simply can’t be bothered.</p>
<p>Their <a href="http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/09/youth-out-in-full-force-as-72-of-young-people-vote-in-general-election-6696890/">role</a> in the 2017 result is a serious reality check – and beyond that, it speaks volumes about how rapidly Britain is changing.</p>
<h2>A new politics blossoms</h2>
<p>This election was a contest between two visions of what that change should entail. For the Conservatives, the political establishment, the pollsters and the guardians of conventional wisdom, British politics has become Brexit politics. The Conservatives aligned themselves with the Leave vote to gobble up UKIP votes and to capitalise on a supposed Leave-Remain split in Labour’s core vote. The Tory campaign was a monolithic construction of repetitive slogans and negative, personal attacks on leading Labour figures.</p>
<p>The Labour campaign approached things differently, and came to the country with an entirely different vision. Theirs was a campaign of economic visions: austerity versus anti-austerity – those who profit from cuts versus those hurt by them. This naturally resonates with young Britons, the first generation since World War II expected to be <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36821582">worse off than their parents</a>. </p>
<p>Young people were Labour’s base; the question was whether they would show up. In the end they did. When the now-famous <a href="https://theconversation.com/ge2017-can-you-trust-that-surprise-exit-poll-79170">exit poll</a> came in, the political establishment people immediately began rifling through the pre-election polls for signs of discrepancies. Was a hung parliament even possible? Why was YouGov’s prediction <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/07/tories-on-12-point-lead-over-labour-in-final-pre-election-poll">more accurate</a> than ComRes’s? </p>
<p>If you study young people’s politics, you probably did what I did: put the polls aside and looked at turnout. A high turnout – especially in young constituencies and seats that encompass universities – spelled trouble for the Conservatives, especially after months of <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/politics/news/86514/record-breaking-numbers-registered-vote-deadline-day">record-breaking voter registration</a> and a Brexit referendum that had young voters fired up.</p>
<h2>A better life</h2>
<p>The signs were there long before polling day. Just think about the set-piece moments of Corbyn’s campaign. Turning up at a gig at <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2017/may/21/jeremy-corbyn-music-festival-tranmere-rovers-ground-video">Tranmere Rovers football stadium</a>. The rallies in cities where people were climbing trees and buildings to watch. The music, including the huge swell of pride and hope in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/39951532/why-uk-grime-artists-are-backing-labour-leader-jeremy-corbyn">grime scene</a> and chants to the tune of the White Stripes’ <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-40217100/jeremy-corbyn-serenaded-by-supporters">Seven Nation Army</a> – these aren’t just the cultural markers of a young social movement. They are the first green shoots of a return of proud, organised working-class politics.</p>
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<p>Young people are at the heart of it all. If you’re young and living in Britain today, you’re less likely to hold a steady job than a series of insecure gigs, leaving you with a <a href="https://www.thersa.org/globalassets/pdfs/reports/rsa_good-gigs-fairer-gig-economy-report.pdf">jumbled CV</a> of zero-hours contracts and unreliable work. No savings, high rent, and huge tuition fees if you’re fortunate enough to make it into higher education. No-one should be surprised that young people offered this dismal social contract instead opted for the promise of investment in the welfare state, secure contracts, and an end to tuition fees.</p>
<p>This movement (and a movement it truly is) will live or die by the success of its central project: to prove that a country as prosperous as Britain can and should invest in itself to bring up and support those who have been left out by austerity. This will mean organising the young people who’ve been inspired to vote and making sure they see their votes make a tangible difference. </p>
<p>Everyone who’s part of this surge needs to make plans to keep the movement going and give young people some control over their own lives. Perhaps this work will be done through Corbyn’s Labour Party, the unions, or something completely new and unexpected – but wherever it happens, the next few historic months will be critical.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79218/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Bowman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Younger voters have been patronised and overlooked for too long – and when politics is meaningful for them, they take part with gusto.Benjamin Bowman, Teaching Fellow in Comparative Politics, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.