tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/united-nations-797/articlesUnited Nations – The Conversation2024-03-28T22:47:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2265972024-03-28T22:47:52Z2024-03-28T22:47:52ZFour solutions could enable Haiti to emerge from its crisis – but they will take time<p>As <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/airlift-canadians-fleeing-haiti-1.7155916">Canada began airlifting citizens out of Haiti</a> this week, the country is in a complete state of crisis. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/kenyas-parliament-approves-police-deployment-haiti-2023-11-16/">An international mission led by Kenya</a> was due to arrive in early 2024, but <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kenya-court-decision-haiti-force-1.7095513">suspended</a> because of the disastrous situation in the country. </p>
<p>The last straw was the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/haiti-ariel-henry-resigns-1.7140904">resignation of acting Prime Minister Ariel Henry</a> on March 11, 2024. While his resignation has brought some measure of calm, this could be short-lived unless it is followed up with co-ordinated political solutions.</p>
<p>Many countries are currently supporting the creation of a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/bob-rae-haiti-council-1.7141745#:%7E:text=Canada's%20ambassador%20to%20the%20United%20Nations%20says%20Haiti's%20transitional%20council,temporary%20replacement%20has%20been%20chosen.">Transitional Presidential Council</a> in Haiti. The United States has <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-haiti-us-aid-1.7140771">released $133 million in aid</a>, and the United Nations has announced it will create <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/03/1147521">“an air bridge”</a> between Haiti and the Dominican Republic to help deliver humanitarian aid.</p>
<p>Can these actions by the international community put an end to the political and institutional instability in Haiti? </p>
<p>A former civil servant in the Haitian public administration, where I worked for eight years, I am now a researcher and lecturer at the École nationale d'administration publique. My co-author has taught policy design and implementation in Haiti. The analyses and conclusions we present here are drawn from our professional experience and research work. </p>
<h2>Haiti in chaos</h2>
<p>In July 2018, Haiti was shaken by waves of violence with the population protesting rising fuel prices. These protests served as a precedent for the development of a phenomenon known as <a href="https://haitiantimes.com/2022/09/14/lockdown-protests-one-deadly-spread-in-haiti-after-fuel-hike-announcement-%EF%BF%BC/">“peyi lock”</a>, or lockdown of the country, which has since become recurrent. It brings <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1.6246428">all priority sectors</a>, such as schools and banks, to a standstill. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/haiti-violence-curfew-1.7132831">Prisons</a> have also been taken by storm. </p>
<p>The crisis is a multidimensional one: <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/haiti/overview">political, economic</a>, security and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1.6617820">humanitarian</a>. According to UNICEF, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/04/americas/haiti-ariel-henry-gangs-protests-bsap-intl-latam/index.html#:%7E:text=80%25%20of%20Port%2Dau%2DPrince%20controlled%20by%20gangs&text=In%20an%20impoverished%20country%20with,kidnapping%20business%2C%20per%20UN%20figures.">80 per cent</a> of the capital, Port-au-Prince, is controlled by criminal gangs, headed by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/10/haiti-gang-boss-kingpin-barbecue-jimmy-cherizier">infamous Jimmy “Barbecue” Chérizier</a>. </p>
<p>On March 8 and 9, 2024, the crisis came to a head when rival gangs sought to take <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-haiti-gangs-meeting-jamaica-1.7139578">control of key infrastructure</a>, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/gangs-in-haiti-try-to-seize-control-of-main-airport-in-newest-attack-on-key-government-sites-1.6793277#:%7E:text=Heavily%20armed%20gangs%20tried%20to,the%20country's%20two%20biggest%20prisons.">including the main international airport and port</a>. </p>
<h2>A long-term political crisis</h2>
<p>Former president Jovenel Moïse, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/4/11/haiti-jovenel-moise-confirmed-as-new-president">elected in 2017</a>, did not call elections during his entire five-year term. This weakened both Haiti’s public institutions, which were already shaky, and the stability of the country’s <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/americas_eu-no-funding-or-european-observers-referendum-haiti/6205539.html">security</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/us/politics/haiti-assassination-court.html">assassination</a> of Moïse on July 7, 2021 – part of the country’s turbulent political history – only accelerated the growing fiasco in Haiti. The presidency has been vacant ever since. </p>
<p>The current crisis is not new. Its roots go back to Haiti’s <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Haitian-Revolution">independence in 1804</a>. The country has been through numerous political crises since then.</p>
<p><a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/minustah">MINUSTAH</a>, the United Nations mission, arrived in Haiti in June 2004, following the <a href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/93-931.html">overthrow of President Jean-Bertrand Aristide</a> on Feb. 29 of that year. One of its objectives was to help strengthen the Haitian National Police (PNH) to ensure public order in the prevailing climate of crisis and instability.</p>
<p>Five years after the definitive departure of MINUSTAH in 2019, the security climate in Haiti is toxic, even apocalyptic. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/minustah">composition of the workforce</a> of MINUSTAH is one reason for the mission’s failure. It included 8,756 military personnel and 3,555 police officers from more than 63 countries, each with their own way of doing things and operating. Under such conditions, it was difficult, if not impossible, to ensure consistency in the actions of the international mission. Moreover, the majority of MINUSTAH’s military and civilian personnel came from countries where respect for human rights is often flouted. </p>
<p>It should not come as a surprise that NGOs denounced <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/lib-docs/HRBodies/UPR/Documents/session12/HT/JS8-JointSubmission8-eng.pdf">cases of failure to respect human rights during MINUSTAH’s presence</a>. MINUSTAH is one of the most controversial missions in the history of the UN. It has been the subject of several allegations of sexual exploitation and abuse. </p>
<h2>Rethinking the mobilization of the international community in Haiti</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-haiti-ariel-henry-1.7141043">meeting</a> initiated by CARICOM <a href="https://caricom.org">(Caribbean Community)</a> was held on March 11 in Jamaica. The meeting brought together a number of international players to discuss the current crisis in Haiti and to promote the creation of a Transitional Presidential Council whose mandate would include organizing the forthcoming elections. </p>
<p>Haitian civil society has already appointed <a href="https://lenouvelliste.com/en/article/247301/pierre-jean-raymond-andre-and-rene-jean-jumeau-appointed-observers-in-the-presidential-council">its observers</a> to this Transitional Presidential Council. But the resigning Prime Minister, Henry, says he is still <a href="https://lenouvelliste.com/en/article/247304/ariel-henry-attend-de-recevoir-officiellement-les-noms-des-membres-du-conseil-presidentiel-pour-publication-dans-le-moniteur">waiting for the names of the members of this council from CARICOM</a> before making it official. So it seems that resolution of the crisis is, once again, getting bogged down.</p>
<p>We believe that the political, security and humanitarian disaster in Haiti calls for the mobilization of the international community. However, this effort needs to be rethought. </p>
<p>Since the country is institutionally weak, support must be planned for the long term and aim to gradually make institutions autonomous. Over the last few decades, support for Haiti has focused on the <a href="https://occah.uqam.ca/publications/haiti-mieux-comprendre-le-bilan-mitige-de-laction-humanitaire-internationale/">NGO channel</a>. Unfortunately, this choice does not help to strengthen the institutional capacities of public bodies. Once the NGOs leave, it becomes difficult for local players to take over. </p>
<p>Our field knowledge leads us to recommend a non-imposed approach that respects Haiti’s interests and strategic needs. We believe that the country will be able to overcome the crisis if it can benefit from both a strong public administration and a co-ordinated international aid effort led by countries whose institutions respect human rights. </p>
<p>This aid must think outside the box and prioritize a participatory approach that incorporates Haitians’ objectives for their country. In the aftermath of the earthquake on Jan. 12, 2010, the international community carried out unplanned interventions <a href="https://espace.enap.ca/id/eprint/447/">without taking into account the specific local context</a>. So it was hardly surprising that the response failed. </p>
<p>The international community’s support for Haiti must be long-term. The MINUSTAH experience demonstrates that one-off humanitarian or emergency interventions cannot be effective. We believe that the aid to be provided to Haiti must be thought through not in years, but in decades.</p>
<p>A multidimensional approach is needed to solidify, stabilize and perpetuate the state’s public institutions. Simply supporting the national police force is not enough to restore order. All the institutions need to be rebuilt.</p>
<h2>Haitians’ responsibilities</h2>
<p>In Haiti, political and civil society players have a responsibility to be proactive in proposing viable solutions. We believe that the wait-and-see attitude often displayed by Haiti’s intellectual elite must be abandoned. We are therefore arguing that a concerted effort by all the nation’s driving forces, including the diaspora, is essential for the country’s renewal. It is with these vital forces that international aid must operate, in a spirit of support and self-determination, rather than imposition, as the American economist and specialist in development economics, <a href="https://penguinshop.ca/products/9780143038825">William Easterly, shows in this essay</a>.</p>
<p>It seems to us, therefore, that to get Haiti out of its current crisis we need to adopt a four-step approach:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Form an international force whose member countries respect human rights.</p></li>
<li><p>Deploy this force to support the national police and restore order, peace and security in the country, including bringing to justice the criminals who are currently creating mayhem in the country.</p></li>
<li><p>Organize an Estates General to bring together the driving forces of civil society and draw up a plan to rebuild the country’s public institutions and make them sustainable.</p></li>
<li><p>Contribute to the training of public servants and to the development of the structures and processes that will be needed to make public institutions sustainable.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>In our opinion, this plan is achievable, provided that the countries that agree to intervene are willing to stay for a few decades.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226597/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Haiti will be able to emerge from the crisis it is in if it has a strong public administration and co-ordinated international aid from countries that respect human rights.Emmanuel Sael, Docteur en administration publique et chargé d'enseignement, École nationale d'administration publique (ENAP)Jean-François Savard, Professeur agrégé, École nationale d'administration publique (ENAP)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2262682024-03-21T17:11:46Z2024-03-21T17:11:46ZGaza update: the prospect of mass famine is beginning to change minds in Washington<p>As the casualty count on the Gaza Strip approaches 32,000 people, in itself a terrible and distressing statistic, another number also stood out this week. It <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/3/19/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-holds-al-jazeera-reporter-for-12-hours?update=2784185">is reported</a> that in the past week, more than 100 aid workers <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/war-gaza-israeli-forces-target-aid-workers-string-killings-imminent-famine">have been killed</a>. Twenty-three on March 19 as they waited at the Kuwait roundabout in Gaza City to receive an aid convoy, but others in raids which have reportedly focused on aid distribution centres and warehouses, <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240320-israel-is-targeting-anybody-involved-in-organising-and-coordinating-the-arrival-of-aid-into-the-north-of-gaza/">according to the Middle East Monitor</a>.</p>
<p>In a situation such as the one unfolding in Gaza, with millions facing critical shortages of food, fuel and medicines, aid agency staff are precious frontline workers. They perform the vital – and very dangerous – task of coordinating aid distribution to 2 million desperate people. Like medical staff in a conflict situation, they are protected by the Geneva conventions.</p>
<p>As always against the background of a chaotic and politically sensitive conflict, it should be noted that these reports – like the overall death toll reports – originate with the authorities in Gaza and must be treated with due caution. But UNRWA, the United Nations relief agency for Palestinian refugees, reports that 165 of its workers have been killed in the five months of the conflict. </p>
<p>This is complicated by Israel’s claims that UNRWA workers were involved in the vicious October 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas, leading it to go so far as calling UNRWA an active participant in the conflict on the side of Hamas – although so far it has offered no evidence to support these claims. Despite this, the agency – which has an estimated 13,000 workers in Gaza – has had its funding paused by several countries, including the US and UK.</p>
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<p><em>Gaza Update is available as a fortnightly email newsletter. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/gaza-update-159?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Gaza">Click here to get our updates directly in your inbox</a>.</em></p>
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<p>All of which makes for distressing viewing on the nightly news. It’s fair to say that in many western countries – judging by the massive and regular protests calling for a ceasefire and humanitarian intervention in Gaza – the views of significant numbers of people are out of sync with the actions of their political leaders. </p>
<p>Which sets up an interesting dynamic in an election year for the US. Last week, a speech by Chuck Schumer, a senior Democrat who is the US Senate majority leader and a vociferous, longtime supporter of Israel – and, until recently at least, friend of its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu – called for Netanyahu to resign and make way for an election, adding:</p>
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<p>Nobody expects Prime Minister Netanyahu to do the things that must be done to break the cycle of violence, to preserve his credibility on the world stage, to work to a two-state solution.</p>
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<p>Schumer’s boss, Joe Biden, commented that he had made “a good speech”, adding that: “I think he expressed a serious concern shared not only by him but by many Americans.”</p>
<p>But, as John Strawson – an expert in Israeli politics at the University of East London – <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-conflict-washingtons-patience-is-wearing-thin-over-the-lack-of-leadership-from-both-israel-and-palestine-225915">writes here</a>, all indications are that this is highly unlikely. Manoeuvrings inside Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, Strawson believes, have actually shored up the prime minister’s position when compared with his main rival Benny Gantz. </p>
<p>Schumer also called for the Palestinian Authority to make changes at the top to usher in “a new generation of Palestinian leaders who will work towards attaining peace with a Jewish state”. But this looks highly unlikely too, given that the PA president, Mahmoud Abbas, has just appointed a decidedly old-school prime minister: Muhammad Mustafa is a 69-year-old political ally who hardly represents a new generation of leadership.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-conflict-washingtons-patience-is-wearing-thin-over-the-lack-of-leadership-from-both-israel-and-palestine-225915">Gaza conflict: Washington's patience is wearing thin over the lack of leadership from both Israel and Palestine</a>
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<p>Schumer’s speech also bears examination for what it tells us about Washington’s attitude towards the Israeli government – at least on the Democrat side. As Dov Waxman, professor of Israel Studies at the University of California, Los Angeles, tells Naomi Schalit, political editor of The Conversation US, Schumer’s speech marks “the culmination of a process that’s been underway for some time, whereby the Democratic Party has increasingly turned against Netanyahu”.</p>
<p>In this <a href="https://theconversation.com/pro-israel-but-anti-netanyahu-democratic-party-leaders-try-to-find-the-middle-ground-226050">illuminating interview</a>, Waxman sets out the nuances in the speech which, he believes, was aimed as much at a domestic audience of Democrat voters as at Israelis, Palestinians or the watching international community, with Schumer deliberately positioning the Democrats as pro-Israel but against the Netanyahu government and what it is doing in Gaza.</p>
<p>Hidden in the speech was a key phrase warning that if this goes on much longer, it will force the Biden administration to “play a more active role in shaping Israeli policy by using our leverage to change the present course”. By this, says Waxman, Schumer means that US military aid to Israel could be on the line. Now that would be a game-changer.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pro-israel-but-anti-netanyahu-democratic-party-leaders-try-to-find-the-middle-ground-226050">Pro-Israel but anti-Netanyahu: Democratic Party leaders try to find the middle ground</a>
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<h2>By sea? By air?</h2>
<p>As you would expect, Biden made Gaza one of the key segments of his recent State of the Union address. With a view to voters on both sides of the spectrum, he apportioned blame carefully, noting that the conflict had begun with the Hamas assault on October 7 but adding that the overwhelming majority of the victims of Israel’s reprisal operation in Gaza have been innocent civilians.</p>
<p>Declaring that “it’s heartbreaking”, Biden announced that he had instructed the US military to build a temporary pier in the Mediterranean to enable the delivery of aid by sea. “No US boots will be on the ground,” he noted, adding that the pier would enable a “massive increase in the amount of humanitarian assistance getting into Gaza every day”.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nFVUPAEF-sw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">‘It’s heartbreaking’: Joe Biden’s 2024 State of the Union address.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But Foteini Stavropoulou of Liverpool John Moores University and Sarah Schiffling of Hanken School of Economics – both experts in aid distribution – believe this will fall far short of the capacity required to meet the urgent needs of the starving population of Gaza. Here, <a href="https://theconversation.com/joe-bidens-plan-to-build-a-pier-to-get-aid-into-gaza-isnt-enough-here-are-six-issues-needed-for-an-effective-aid-strategy-225369">they outline six steps</a> which could help get the required volumes of humanitarian aid into the besieged enclave.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/joe-bidens-plan-to-build-a-pier-to-get-aid-into-gaza-isnt-enough-here-are-six-issues-needed-for-an-effective-aid-strategy-225369">Joe Biden's plan to build a pier to get aid into Gaza isn't enough – here are six issues needed for an effective aid strategy</a>
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<p>There have been airdrops of aid over the past weeks. Stavropoulou and Schiffling believe this is a delivery option of last resort, but for 12 months from 1948, the US and UK maintained an airlift into blockaded west Berlin, feeding more than 2 million people cut off by Soviet forces.</p>
<p>Claudia Milena Adler, an expert in humanitarianism with the University of York, and Abdullah Yusuf, an expert in international relations at the University of Dundee, compare what was achieved during the Berlin airlift with what is required now, and ask whether the west can perform the same miraculous service in Gaza. </p>
<p>They are not optimistic. Feeding Berlin in 1948 took a clear effort of <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-if-theres-a-lesson-from-the-berlin-airlift-its-that-political-will-is-required-to-avoid-a-humanitarian-catastrophe-226243">political will</a> and western unity to achieve. It’s far from clear, they write, that the same political will exists today when it comes to Israel and Palestine.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-if-theres-a-lesson-from-the-berlin-airlift-its-that-political-will-is-required-to-avoid-a-humanitarian-catastrophe-226243">Gaza war: if there's a lesson from the Berlin airlift it's that political will is required to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe</a>
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<h2>Ramadan in Rafah</h2>
<p>Back in January, the aforementioned Benny Gantz – a member of Israel’s war cabinet – said that unless all hostages were released, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would commence an assault on the city of Rafah by March 10 – which would coincide with the start of Ramadan. This, as the director of the Middle East Institute’s program on Palestine, Khaled Elgindy, said at the time, “adds a layer of distastefulness and outrage to an already pretty horrendous situation”.</p>
<p>In the event, the assault has not begun. Now we have a situation where almost daily, Biden and other senior world leaders warn Israel not to go into Rafah – where more than a million Palestinian refugees from the rest of the Gaza Strip are huddling and close to starvation. Meanwhile, Israel doubles down on its insistence that it still plans to carry out the assault.</p>
<p>Carlo Aldrovandi, a professor in international peace studies at Trinity College Dublin, <a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-hamas-conflict-ramadan-brings-fresh-fears-of-escalation-on-both-gaza-strip-and-west-bank-225367">explains the significance of Ramadan</a>, not only to the 2 million Palestinians trapped in Gaza but the wider Islamic world. And he warns that Islam’s holiest month could see increased violence on the West Bank, where tensions remain high.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-hamas-conflict-ramadan-brings-fresh-fears-of-escalation-on-both-gaza-strip-and-west-bank-225367">Israel-Hamas conflict: Ramadan brings fresh fears of escalation on both Gaza Strip and West Bank</a>
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<p><em>Gaza Update is available as a fortnightly email newsletter. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/gaza-update-159?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Gaza">Click here to get our updates directly in your inbox</a>.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226268/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A selection of our coverage of the conflict in Gaza from the past fortnight.Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2260862024-03-21T14:42:07Z2024-03-21T14:42:07ZStarvation is a weapon of war: Gazans are paying the price<iframe height="200px" width="100%" frameborder="no" scrolling="no" seamless="" src="https://player.simplecast.com/a0ebccbd-65af-4884-ae7e-49ae086cd98f?dark=true"></iframe>
<p>On Monday, the European Union’s foreign policy chief <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ipc-gaza-famine-report-1.7146974">accused Israel of using starvation as a weapon of war</a> and provoking famine in Gaza. </p>
<p>Israel <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-asks-world-court-not-order-new-measures-over-gaza-hunger-2024-03-18/">denies the allegations</a>, which are some of the strongest words we have heard from a western power about the situation in Gaza since October. The EU statement comes on the heels of a <a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-97/en/">UN-backed report</a> that warns that more than one million people — half of Gaza’s population — face catastrophic starvation conditions. </p>
<p>The report compiled through a partnership of more than 19 international agencies, including the United Nations and the Canadian International Development Agency, goes on to say that without an immediate ceasefire and a major influx of food especially into areas cut off by fighting, famine and mass death in Gaza are imminent.</p>
<p>In response to Monday’s report, the United Nations Secretary-General, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/3/18/un-backed-report-says-famine-imminent-in-northern-gaza">António Guterres said</a> Palestinians in Gaza are “enduring horrifying levels of hunger and suffering” and called the findings an “appalling indictment of conditions on the ground for civilians.”</p>
<p>“We must act now to prevent the unthinkable, the unacceptable and the unjustifiable,” he said.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/famine-expert-analyzes-gaza-humanitarian-crisis/">Scholars of famine</a> say this is the worst food deprivation they have observed in war time since the Second World War. And according to international law, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/31/israel-gaza-starvation-international-law">intentional starvation of a population is a war crime</a>.</p>
<p>Hilal Elver joined us to share her extensive expertise on the issue. Prof. Elver is the former United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, a position she held for six years, from 2014 to 2020. She is also a research professor of Global Studies at the University of California Santa Barbara and a Global Distinguished Fellow at the Resnick Center for Food Law and Policy at UCLA School of Law. Elver currently serves on the committee of experts at the Committee on World Food Security.</p>
<p>With almost 50 per cent of Gaza’s population under 18, Elver says children are forced to grow up quickly in Gaza. She worries for their future. She says even if we stop the war right now, “we’re going to lose this generation.” </p>
<h2>Listen and follow</h2>
<p>You can listen to or follow <a href="https://dont-call-me-resilient.simplecast.com/"><em>Don’t Call Me Resilient</em></a> on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/dont-call-me-resilient/id1549798876">Apple Podcasts</a> <a href="https://www.apple.com/ca/newsroom/2024/03/apple-introduces-transcripts-for-apple-podcasts/">(transcripts available)</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/37tK4zmjWvq2Sh6jLIpzp7">Spotify</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL_mJBLBznANz6ID9rBCUk7gv_ZRC4Og9-">YouTube</a> or wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts. </p>
<p><a href="mailto:dcmr@theconversation.com">We’d love to hear from you</a>, including any ideas for future episodes.</p>
<p>Join the Conversation on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/dontcallmeresilientpodcast/">Instagram</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/ConversationCA">X</a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/theconversationcanada">LinkedIn</a> and use #DontCallMeResilient.</p>
<h2>Resources</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_Famine_Committee_Review_Report_Gaza_Strip_Acute_Food_Insecurity_Feb_July2024_Special_Brief.pdf">Famine Review Committee Report: Gaza Strip Acute Food Insecurity March 2024</a> — Integrated Food Security Phase Classification</p>
<p><a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Mass+Starvation%3A+The+History+and+Future+of+Famine-p-9781509524662"><em>Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine</em></a> by Alex de Waal</p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/un-chief-pushes-get-aid-into-gaza-process-is-slow-2023-10-20/">U.N. chief pleads for Gaza lifeline at Egypt border crossing</a></p>
<h2>From the archives - in The Conversation</h2>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/western-moral-credibility-is-dying-along-with-thousands-of-gaza-citizens-220449">Western moral credibility is dying along with thousands of Gaza citizens</a>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ramadan-will-be-difficult-for-those-in-gaza-or-other-war-zones-what-does-fasting-mean-for-those-who-might-be-already-starving-225152">Ramadan will be difficult for those in Gaza or other war zones – what does fasting mean for those who might be already starving?</a>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/israeli-siege-has-placed-gazans-at-risk-of-starvation-prewar-policies-made-them-vulnerable-in-the-first-place-222657">Israeli siege has placed Gazans at risk of starvation − prewar policies made them vulnerable in the first place</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226086/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
We speak with Hilal Elver, the former UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food and current University of California professor about the looming famine in Gaza after months of Israeli attacks.Vinita Srivastava, Host + Producer, Don't Call Me ResilientAteqah Khaki, Associate Producer, Don't Call Me ResilientHusein Haveliwala, Student Journalist/Assistant Producer, Don't Call Me ResilientLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2259412024-03-19T12:31:45Z2024-03-19T12:31:45ZHaiti is in crisis, but foreign intervention comes with an ugly past<p>Haiti is <a href="https://news.miami.edu/stories/2024/03/haiti-is-close-to-becoming-a-failed-state.html">fast becoming a failed state</a>. </p>
<p>Armed gangs <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/16/overthrow-the-system-haiti-gang-leader-cherizier-seeks-revolution#:%7E:text=The%20UN%20has%20estimated%20that,foreign%20troops%20from%20entering%20Haiti.">control most of the capital, Port-au-Prince</a>, and have forced the <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/news/nation-world/2024/03/16/haitis-airports-are-closed-those-with-money-there-is-still-way-out/">shutdown of the capital’s international airport</a> and gasoline refinery. Most <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/world/haiti-crisis-militias-battle-intl-latam/index.html">businesses are closed or are being extorted by the gangs</a>.</p>
<p>Ordinary Haitians fear for their safety without the umbrella of law and order that only the government can provide. But there is not much government left: Elections have not been held <a href="https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/2985/">since 2016</a>; the last president, Jovenel Moïse, was <a href="https://theconversation.com/haitis-president-assassinated-5-essential-reads-to-give-you-key-history-and-insight-164118">assassinated in 2021</a>; and the current prime minister and acting president, Ariel Henry, is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/03/06/1236288645/haiti-crisis-prime-minister-henry-puerto-rico">stuck in Puerto Rico</a>, unable to fly back to Haiti.</p>
<p>It is increasingly becoming clear that Haiti has neither the means nor the ability to <a href="https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2024/03/haiti-private-meeting-2.php">pull itself out of this quagmire on its own</a>, raising the prospect of – and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/21/haiti-un-international-specialized-support-force">calls for</a> – foreign intervention. So far, to that end, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/01/world/africa/haiti-kenya-police-security.html">Kenya has offered</a> 1,000 armed policemen; other countries may chip in. The United States and Europe have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-aid-chief-announce-25-million-humanitarian-assistance-haiti-2024-03-15/#:%7E:text=The%20additional%20aid%20comes%20after,the%20U.S.%20since%20October%202022.">pledged millions of dollars</a> in aid. </p>
<p>But can a multinational security mission provide Haiti with a way out of its current crisis? My experience <a href="https://www.libarts.colostate.edu/people/esagas/">studying authoritarianism and democratization in Latin America and the Caribbean</a> tells me that international intervention will only take care of Haiti’s immediate security crisis – but it does not guarantee any long-term solutions to Haiti’s challenges. Moreover, history shows that in the case of Haiti, a multinational security mission may create problems of its own.</p>
<h2>Occupational hazards</h2>
<p>This is not the first time that talk has turned to sending foreign troops to Haiti. Since their hard-fought <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/86417/the-black-jacobins-by-c-l-r-james-with-a-new-introduction-by-david-scott/">independence from France in 1804</a>, the Haitian people have seen their country’s sovereignty disrupted many times.</p>
<p>From 1915 to 1934, <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1914-1920/haiti">U.S. Marines occupied</a> Haiti <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/haiti-history-of-crises-present-unrest/">to impose order in the riot-struck republic</a>, create a professional military force and secure U.S. strategic interests in the process.</p>
<p><iframe id="HZR7k" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HZR7k/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The lengthy military occupation was a humiliating affair for the <a href="https://www.aaihs.org/the-black-republic-the-meaning-of-haitian-independence-before-the-occupation/">world’s first Black republic</a>, which had to endure being ruled by white foreigners. </p>
<p>In the aftermath of the U.S. occupation, the new Haitian military <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.1823">became the main force</a> in the country’s politics, either ruling directly or as the power behind the throne.</p>
<p>In 1994, <a href="https://time.com/5682135/haiti-military-anniversary/">U.S. troops once again landed in Haiti</a>, this time to return to power the democratically elected president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, who had been ousted by the military just seven months into his term.</p>
<p>This second U.S. occupation led to the dissolution of the Haitian military, setting the stage for the current security crisis. Since then, Haiti has lacked a national security force capable of imposing order without being challenged by insurgents, paramilitaries and gangs.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/minustah">United Nations eventually took over</a> and sent several missions to stabilize the country starting in 1994. But the U.N. mission eventually left in 2019 once its mandate expired. U.N. troops were accused of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1YM27V/">sexually exploiting poor women</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/18/world/americas/united-nations-haiti-cholera.html">being responsible for a major cholera outbreak</a> that killed thousands of Haitians.</p>
<h2>Routes of transition</h2>
<p>This sorry history with foreign intervention means that Haiti faces a conundrum now: The country desperately needs outside help to rein in the gangs and provide order, but at what cost? </p>
<p>With the U.S., U.N. and the Ariel Henry administration seemingly in agreement over the <a href="https://ht.usembassy.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-haitian-prime-minister-henry/">need for outside assistance</a>, it seems like foreign intervention is increasingly likely.</p>
<p>Henry has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/haitian-leader-says-he-will-quit-after-transitional-council-formed-gang-violence-2024-03-12/">promised to step down</a> as soon as a transitional administration is set up. Any multinational security mission mandate is likely to be pretty straightforward: provide a modicum of security to assist the transitional administration.</p>
<p>But disarming the gangs is a major challenge. They will likely either resist, leading to a potential bloodbath, or, more likely, hide and wait until foreign troops leave Haiti and then reemerge. </p>
<p>That was one of the major failures of previous security missions in Haiti. U.N. peacekeepers kept the peace, but the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/14/haiti-gang-violence-us-guns-smuggling">flow of arms</a> coming <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/widespread-gang-violence-in-haiti-continues-bolstered-by-weapons-trafficked-from-the-u-s">into the country</a> from the United States continued unabated. Once the peacekeepers left, the violence resumed. Any international mission sent to Haiti will have to tackle this problem head on, or it will ultimately fail. </p>
<p>Gangs hold so much power over <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-63707429">vast swaths of the country</a> that any mediated solution to the Haitian crisis will likely have to include them. Moreover, there is a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/opinions/haiti-gangs-violence-pierre-pierre/index.html">working relationship</a> between the Haitian political elites and the gangs, with the former arming the latter and using them to pursue their short-term goals. Ignoring the political power of the gangs is, I believe, engaging in wishful thinking about the nature of the Haitian political system.</p>
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<img alt="A tank painted white with UN written on it drives down the street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582600/original/file-20240318-20-o5lry1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582600/original/file-20240318-20-o5lry1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582600/original/file-20240318-20-o5lry1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582600/original/file-20240318-20-o5lry1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582600/original/file-20240318-20-o5lry1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582600/original/file-20240318-20-o5lry1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582600/original/file-20240318-20-o5lry1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Haitians have bitter memories of U.N. troops in their country.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/troops-ride-in-an-armored-personnel-carrier-while-news-photo/1543529746?adppopup=true">Thony Belizaire/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>And what about Haiti’s other challenges, such as holding free elections, organizing a functioning, legitimate government and improving the lives of its citizens? </p>
<p>None of these goals can realistically be achieved until peace is restored. Only in the conditions of stability and order can a transitional caretaker government start planning the arduous task of holding free, fair and competitive elections. </p>
<p>It may be years before Haiti can organize such elections or restore trust in democracy among the populace. If this process is rushed, Haiti runs the risk of ending up with an illegitimate administration – <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/11/haiti-democracy-relations-united-states-gang-violence/">as Henry’s is seen to be</a> – heightening the chances of the resumption of violence. </p>
<p>This has been the case over the past two decades: Haiti’s elections and authorities have became less legitimate, to the point where the country was unable to hold free elections after 2016. </p>
<h2>The challenge ahead</h2>
<p>If a multinational security mission is in Haiti’s immediate future, then the chances of it having lasting success will hang on whether the international community can provide enough support to the country after foreign troops leave.</p>
<p>A new police force will have to be recruited and trained, institutions such as the judiciary have to be reinforced, and the new administration will need time to earn the trust of the people. This is a difficult task considering <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/haiti-in-2023-political-abyss-and-vicious-gangs/">Haiti’s political polarization</a>.</p>
<p>To overcome these challenges, the international community will have to pump funds into Haiti. While history has shown that this risks exacerbating governmental corruption, I believe it is a small price to pay for the maintenance of peace.</p>
<p>Without sustained funding from the international community, Haiti will again become a <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/immersive/haiti-forgotten-crisis?id=100287588">forgotten crisis</a>. For example, in the aftermath of the devastating 2010 earthquake, US$4.5 billion dollars were promised in aid, but only <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jan/11/haiti-earthquake-promised-aid-not-delivered">a little over half of it was delivered</a>. </p>
<p>The fear is that now an international community distracted by crises elsewhere, such as wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, may soon lose interest in Haiti’s plight.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ernesto Sagás does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Can a multinational security mission provide Haiti with a stable future? Not without sustained funding for after the troops leave.Ernesto Sagás, Professor of Ethnic Studies, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214682024-03-05T20:11:08Z2024-03-05T20:11:08ZIt’s time we include cities and regions as equal partners in global climate negotiations<p>Last year’s UN climate conference (COP28) made history in Dubai by introducing — for the very first time — language on “<a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/636584">transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems</a>” in the final version of the negotiated text.</p>
<p>While significant, this achievement was not the only notable event of last year’s climate talks.</p>
<p>COP28 was also the occasion of the first <a href="https://www.unep.org/gef/events/conference/cop28-local-climate-action-summit">Local Climate Action Summit</a> (LCAS) which brought together over 250 subnational and local leaders. As part of this program a delegation of mayors and governors from around the world took the stage alongside world leaders.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/access-and-exclusion-what-cop28-revealed-about-the-dynamics-of-global-climate-diplomacy-220198">Access and exclusion: What COP28 revealed about the dynamics of global climate diplomacy</a>
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<p>The purpose of LCAS was to demonstrate how subnational authorities around the world are already taking action to bolster climate mitigation and adaptation, often surpassing the ambition of national governments. Such recognition is long overdue.</p>
<p>Subnational and local authorities have historically been grouped in with civil society and private interests as “observers” at COP negotiations. Such a categorization dismisses the fundamental role subnational governments play both in implementing a just transition and in managing humanity’s lines of defence against the climate crisis. </p>
<p>It is high time that subnational voices be heard loud and clear, alongside national governments, within the United Nations’ Conference of the Parties framework.</p>
<h2>Broadening diplomacy</h2>
<p>Subnational climate summits are by no means a novelty of contemporary global governance.</p>
<p>Conferences of cities and regions organized by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020929261">advocacy networks</a> such as <a href="https://iclei.org/about_iclei_2/">Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI)</a>, <a href="https://regions4.org/about-us/regions4/">Regions4</a>, <a href="https://uclg.org/">United Cities and Local Governments (UCLG)</a>, and the <a href="https://www.theclimategroup.org/under2-coalition">Under2 Coalition</a> have been around for decades. However, LCAS is the first gathering of its type to be included in the official program of a COP. This is clear progress.</p>
<p>LCAS sent the message that the parallel system of <a href="https://cris.unu.edu/paradiplomacy-cities-and-states-global-players">subnational diplomacy that has been developing over the past three decades</a> ought to be fully recognized within global governance. Indeed, our climate goals will only be reached if subnational and national governments begin working together ensuring that policy expertise and financial resources are shared among different levels of governance, <a href="https://unhabitat.org/local-action-for-global-goals-an-opportunity-for-enhancing-nationally-determined-contributions">including in national reporting to the UN</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A recording of presentations as part of the LCAS.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The ideas presented at the LCAS forum were an exciting vision for the future, however, more work must be done to make this vision a reality. </p>
<p>Specifically, subnational governments need more direct access to UN institutions and a greater ability to weigh in on global policymaking and intergovernmental negotiations as part of a broader effort to <a href="https://iclei.org/press_release/cop28-a-turning-point-for-cities-and-regions-in-climate-action-leadership/">“formalize subnational voices” in the agenda of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>. </p>
<p>These actions must be done in recognition of the <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/c5084924-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/c5084924-en">central role subnational governments play in implementing carbon reduction and climate change adaptation and resilience policies</a>.</p>
<h2>On the frontlines</h2>
<p>Subnational and local governments are “<a href="https://www.cities-and-regions.org/wp-content/uploads/lgma_towardscop28_final.pdf">key enablers of a just transition</a>” on the frontlines of the climate crisis with often greater legitimacy and competence to oversee context specific environmental transitions well-attuned to local needs. </p>
<p>It is worth remembering that <a href="https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/resource-efficiency/what-we-do/cities/cities-and-climate-change">cities emit up to 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions</a> and often serve as the economic engines of their respective nations. Cities therefore have a critical role to play in reducing energy demands and consumption. These are ambitions which can be achieved by incorporating densification, climate adaptation, public transportation and building decarbonization into future urban planning.</p>
<p>Regional governments constitute a pivotal link between local and central authorities and are often in a better jurisdictional position than national governments to lead the environmental transition. Regional governments already lead by spearheading efforts on <a href="https://regions4.org/project/regions-adapt/">climate adaptation</a> and <a href="https://regions4.org/news/launch-of-regionsadapt-progress-report-2023/">climate justice</a> — jointly tackling the twin crises of climate change and biodiversity loss.</p>
<p>Ultimately, we must move beyond understanding subnational governments as “<a href="https://opil.ouplaw.com/display/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/law-9780199231690-e1445">non-state actors</a>” — alongside businesses, NGOs and private individuals — and begin viewing them as state actors in their own right. This means giving municipal and regional authorities more opportunities to influence national and global environmental outcomes.</p>
<p>The multilateral declaration that created the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships at COP28 — endorsed as of now by 72 sovereign states — stimulates such progress, by encouraging national governments to create “<a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/cop28-uae-coalition-for-high-ambition-multilevel-partnerships-for-climate-action">inclusive institutional and informal processes to enable subnational governments to contribute to further enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions</a>.”</p>
<h2>Subnational leadership</h2>
<p>Luckily, the gradual recognition and inclusion of subnational authorities is underway and the trends are only accelerating. Meanwhile, some cities and regions have already leapt ahead by demonstrating path-breaking leadership.</p>
<p>Some, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/11926422.2021.2002702">Québec and California, have even become fully autonomous actors of global environmental governance</a>. California was a leading force in the Subnational Climate Action Leaders’ Exchange launched at COP27 as a forum for incubating new ideas. One of these ideas, the <a href="https://www.state.gov/lowering-organic-waste-methane-initiative-low-methane/">LOW-Methane initiative</a>, was later launched by a coalition of international partners at COP28.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/canada/en/press-release/62299/as-quebec-takes-on-co-presidency-of-the-beyond-oil-and-gas-alliance-climate-organizations-present-their-expectations-for-what-this-new-role-means/">Québec was appointed to the co-presidency of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance</a>. The BOGA is a coalition of sovereign and subnational states committed to banning fossil fuel investments and production on their territory. Québec <a href="https://www.economie.gouv.qc.ca/en/outside-quebec/ban-on-petroleum-exploration-and-production">first accomplished this goal in 2022</a>, making it the first jurisdiction in North America (and one of the first in the world) to do so.</p>
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<p>Such transformational subnational leadership raises important questions about the validity of continuing nation-state monopoly in international affairs, especially in this evolving era of global transformations and ecological crisis.</p>
<p>It is crucial that local and regional governments <a href="https://www.global-taskforce.org/organized-constituency-pledge-achieve-2030-agenda-and-reformed-multilateral-system-sdg-summit">be formally awarded a distinct status and role</a> in global governance institutions, differentiating them from <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/parties-non-party-stakeholders/non-party-stakeholders/overview/admitted-ngos#Constituencies-in-the-UNFCCC">other “non-state” stakeholders</a>. </p>
<p>The creation of the <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/personnel-appointments/2023-10-06/secretary-general%E2%80%99s-advisory-group-local-and-regional-governments-scroll-down-for-french-and-spanish-versions">Secretary General’s Advisory Group on Local and Regional Governments</a> undoubtedly represents a step in the right direction. However, much remains to be done to meaningfully reform multilateralism in the lead-up to the UN <a href="https://www.un.org/en/common-agenda/summit-of-the-future">Summit of the Future</a> next September and COP29 in December 2024.</p>
<p>Simply put, subnational and local authorities must be brought into the room where diplomacy and global governance takes place. An ambition which entails a critical reflection on the inherent interconnections between local, subnational and national activities.</p>
<p>Including the subnational and local levels is not just a good idea, it is a crucial stepping stone in achieving global climate goals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221468/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marjolaine Lamontagne receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (Vanier Scholar) and the Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Berthelet receives funding from the Centre d'étude des mouvements sociaux (CEMS - CNRS/EHESS), the École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) and the Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM). </span></em></p>Subnational authorities are leading the charge on a just transition and dealing with climate change impacts. It is time for this key role to be reflected in international climate negotiations.Marjolaine Lamontagne, Ph.D. Candidate in International Relations (Global Environmental Governance and Diplomacy), McGill UniversityCharles Berthelet, Ph.D. Candidate in Philosophy, Political Studies, and Sociology, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233532024-02-29T23:00:05Z2024-02-29T23:00:05ZNot such a bright idea: cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back to space is a dangerous distraction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578498/original/file-20240228-18-s7p4c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=131%2C0%2C5044%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United Nations Environment Assembly this week <a href="https://www.un.org/en/nairobi-unis/press-releaseun-environment-assembly-opens-calls-stronger-multilateral-action">considered</a> a resolution on solar radiation modification, which refers to controversial technologies intended to mask the heating effect of greenhouse gases by reflecting some sunlight back to space. </p>
<p>Proponents argue the technologies will limit the effects of climate change. In reality, this type of “geoengineering” risks further destabilising an already deeply disturbed climate system. What’s more, its full impacts <a href="https://global-tipping-points.org/section3/3-0-governance-of-earth-system-tipping-points/3-2-prevention-of-earth-system-tipping-processes/3-2-3-prevention-approaches-and-institutional-options/3-2-3-4-solar-geoengineering/">cannot be known</a> until after deployment. </p>
<p>The draft resolution initially <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2024/02/15/switzerland-proposes-first-un-expert-group-on-solar-geoengineering/">called for</a> the convening of an expert group to examine the benefits and risks of solar radiation modification. The motion was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/safety-fears-stall-un-bid-examine-sun-blocking-climate-change-tech-2024-02-29/#:%7E:text=NAIROBI%2C%20Feb%2029%20(Reuters),about%20health%20and%20environmental%20risks.">withdrawn</a> on Thursday after no consensus could be reached on the controversial topic. </p>
<p>A notable development was a call from some Global South countries for “non-use” of solar radiation modification. We strongly support this position. Human-caused climate change is already one planetary-scale experiment too many – we don’t need another.</p>
<h2>A risky business</h2>
<p>In some circles, solar geoengineering is <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.754">gaining prominence</a> as a response to the climate crisis. However, research has consistently identified potential risks posed by the technologies such as:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>unpredictable effects on <a href="http://www.gesamp.org/publications/high-level-review-of-a-wide-range-of-proposed-marine-geoengineering-techniques">climate and weather patterns</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.cbd.int/doc/publications/cbd-ts-84-en.pdf">biodiversity loss</a>, especially if use of the technology was halted abruptly</p></li>
<li><p>undermining food security by, for example, reducing light and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3393062/">increasing salinity on land</a></p></li>
<li><p>the infringement of human rights <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/hr-bodies/hrc/advisory-committee/impact-of-new-technologies">across generations</a> – including, but not limited to, passing on huge risks to generations that will come after us.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Here, we discuss several examples of solar radiation modification which exemplify the threats posed by these technologies. These are also depicted in the graphic below.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An infographic showing the potential unintended effects of various solar engineering methods." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An infographic showing the effects of solar engineering methods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A load of hot air</h2>
<p>In April 2022, an American startup company released two weather balloons into the air from Mexico. The experiment was conducted <a href="https://time.com/6248654/mexico-geoengineering-ban-make-sunsets/">without approval</a> from Mexican authorities. </p>
<p>The intent was to cool the atmosphere by deflecting sunlight. The resulting reduction in warming would be sold for profit as “<a href="https://makesunsets.com/products/join-the-next-balloon-launch-and-cool-the-planet">cooling credits</a>” to those wanting to offset greenhouse gas pollution.</p>
<p>Appreciably cooling the climate would, in reality, require injecting <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/02/05/1087587/solar-geoengineering-could-start-soon-if-it-starts-small/">millions of metric tons of aerosols</a> into the stratosphere, using a purpose-built fleet of high-altitude aircraft. Such an undertaking would alter global wind and rainfall patterns, leading to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01606-0">more drought and cyclones</a>, exacerbating <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-dimming-the-sun-would-be-an-effective-tool-in-the-fight-against-climate-change-218670">acid rainfall</a> and <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL094058">slowing ozone recovery</a>.</p>
<p>Once started, this stratospheric aerosol injection would need to be carried out continually for <a href="https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/367/2023/esd-14-367-2023.pdf">at least a century</a> to achieve the desired cooling effect. Stopping prematurely would <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0431-0">lead to</a> an unprecedented rise in global temperatures far outpacing extreme climate change scenarios.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trying-to-cool-the-earth-by-dimming-sunlight-could-be-worse-than-global-warming-175455">Trying to cool the Earth by dimming sunlight could be worse than global warming</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="cracked, dry earth" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Injecting aerosols into the atmosphere may lead to more droughts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Heads in the clouds</h2>
<p>Another solar geoengineering technology, known as marine cloud brightening, seeks to make low-lying clouds more reflective by spraying microscopic seawater droplets into the air. Since 2017, trials have been <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/cloud-brightening-could-save-bleached-great-barrier-reef-scientists-say-20170426-gvsfxw.html">underway on the Great Barrier Reef</a>. </p>
<p>The project is tiny in scale, and involves pumping seawater onto a boat and spraying it from nozzles towards the sky. The project leader says the mist-generating machine would need to be scaled up by a <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/Asia-s-climate-crisis/The-climate-moonshot-engineering-the-earth">factor of ten</a>, to about 3,000 nozzles, to brighten nearby clouds by 30%.</p>
<p>After years of trials, the project has not yet produced peer-reviewed empirical evidence that cloud brightening could reduce sea surface temperatures or protect corals from bleaching.</p>
<p>The Great Barrier Reef is the size of Italy. Scaling up attempts at cloud brightening would require up to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02290-3">1,000 machines on boats</a>, all pumping and spraying vast amounts of seawater for months during summer. Even if it worked, the operation is hardly, as its proponents claim, “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/cloud-brightening-could-save-bleached-great-barrier-reef-scientists-say-20170426-gvsfxw.html">environmentally benign</a>”.</p>
<p>The technology’s effects remain unclear. For the Great Barrier Reef, less sunlight and lower temperatures <a href="http://www.gesamp.org/publications/high-level-review-of-a-wide-range-of-proposed-marine-geoengineering-techniques">could alter</a> water movement and mixing, harming marine life. Marine life may also be killed by pumps or negatively affected by the additional noise pollution. And on land, marine cloud brightening may <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3393062/">lead to</a> altered rainfall patterns and increased salinity, damaging agriculture.</p>
<p>More broadly, 101 governments last year <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/MeetingSummaries/Pages/LC-45-LP-18.aspx">agreed to a statement</a> describing marine-based geoengineering, including cloud brightening, as having “the potential for deleterious effects that are widespread, long-lasting or severe”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-we-know-about-last-years-top-10-wild-australian-climatic-events-from-fire-and-flood-combos-to-cyclone-driven-extreme-rain-224614">What we know about last year's top 10 wild Australian climatic events – from fire and flood combos to cyclone-driven extreme rain</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_LmV94WSkmc?wmode=transparent&start=7" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A cloud brightening field trip in 2021 (Southern Cross University)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Balls, bubbles and foams</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.arcticiceproject.org/approach/">Arctic Ice Project</a> involves spreading a layer of tiny glass spheres over large regions of sea ice to brighten its surface and halt ice loss.</p>
<p>Trials have been conducted <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018EF000820">on frozen lakes in North America</a>. Scientists recently showed the spheres actually <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022EF002815">absorb some sunlight</a>, speeding up sea-ice loss in some conditions.</p>
<p>Another proposed intervention is spraying the ocean with <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD024201">microbubbles</a> or <a href="https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10046949/">sea foam</a> to make the surface more reflective. This would introduce large concentrations of <a href="http://www.gesamp.org/publications/high-level-review-of-a-wide-range-of-proposed-marine-geoengineering-techniques">chemicals</a> to stabilise bubbles or foam at the sea surface, posing significant risk to marine life, ecosystem function and fisheries. </p>
<h2>No more distractions</h2>
<p>Some scientists investigating solar geoengineering discuss the need for “<a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2118379119">exit ramps</a>” – the termination of research once a proposed intervention is deemed to be technically infeasible, too risky or socially unacceptable. We believe this point has already been reached.</p>
<p>Since 2022, more than 500 scientists from 61 countries have signed an open letter calling for an international <a href="https://www.solargeoeng.org/non-use-agreement/open-letter/">non-use agreement</a> on solar geoengineering. Aside from the types of risks discussed above, the letter said the speculative technologies detract from the urgent need to cut global emissions, and that no global governance system exists to fairly and effectively regulate their deployment.</p>
<p>Calls for outdoor experimentation of the technologies are misguided and detract energy and resources from what we need to do today: phase out fossil fuels and accelerate a just transition worldwide.</p>
<p>Climate change is the greatest challenge facing humanity, and global responses have been woefully inadequate. Humanity must not pursue <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/comment/overshoot-commissions-veneer-of-neutrality-is-solar-radiation-modification-pr-by-stealth">dangerous distractions</a> that do nothing to tackle the root causes of climate change, come with incalculable risk, and will likely further delay climate action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223353/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Kerry is an Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at James Cook University, Australia, and Senior Marine and Climate Scientist for the non-governmental organisation, OceanCare, Switzerland.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aarti Gupta is a professor of global environmental governance at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, and a signatory to the academic Open Letter calling for an 'International Non-Use Agreement on Solar Geoengineering'. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Hughes receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>A UN meeting this week considered a motion on a suite of technologies known as ‘solar radiation modification’, but no consensus could be reached on the controversial topic.James Kerry, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, James Cook University, Australia and Senior Marine and Climate Scientist, OceanCare, Switzerland, James Cook UniversityAarti Gupta, Professor of Global Environmental Governance, Wageningen UniversityTerry Hughes, Distinguished Professor, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239822024-02-22T07:45:37Z2024-02-22T07:45:37ZAfrica’s debt crisis needs a bold new approach: expert outlines a way forward<p>It hasn’t been easy for African states to finance their developmental and environmental policy objectives over the past few years.</p>
<p>Recent events suggest that the situation may be improving. For the first time in two years, three African states have been able <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/02/15/african-governments-return-to-international-bond-markets">to access international financial markets, albeit at high interest rates.</a> Kenya, for example, is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/kenya-said-to-tap-eurobond-market-at-exorbitant-rate-for-buyback?sref=UnSQjRxb">now paying over 10%</a> compared to about 7% in 2014. </p>
<p>Many African countries continue to face challenging sovereign debt situations.</p>
<p>Total external debts as a share of Africa’s export earnings increased from <a href="https://unctad.org/publication/world-of-debt/regional-stories">74.5% in 2010 to 140% in 2022</a>. In 2022, African governments had to <a href="https://data.one.org/topics/african-debt/">allocate about 12% of their revenues to servicing their debt</a>. Between 2019 and 2022, <a href="https://unctad.org/publication/world-of-debt/regional-stories">25 African governments</a> allocated more resources to servicing their total debts than to the health of their citizens. And in late 2023 the <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/09/26/cf-how-to-avoid-a-debt-crisis-in-sub-saharan-africa">International Monetary Fund estimated</a> that over half the low income African countries were either potentially or actually experiencing difficulties paying their debts. </p>
<p>This suggests that it will be very difficult for Africa to raise the US$1.6 trillion that <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/3269532b-en/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/3269532b-en#:%7E:text=Africa's%20sustainable%20financing%20gap%20until,Sustainable%20Development%20Goals%20by%202030">the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates</a> it needs to reach the sustainable development goals by 2030.</p>
<p>One of the lessons of the COVID pandemic and the climate negotiations is that Africa can’t count on the global community to provide it with sufficient new funds or with debt relief to deal with either its development needs or the consequences of crises such as pandemics or extreme weather events. </p>
<p>Its official bilateral creditors appear more focused on their own needs and on other parts of the world than on Africa. Commercial creditors are happy to provide financing when conditions are favourable and African debt can help them satisfy their investment mandates. But they are less forthcoming when the going gets tough and the risks associated with the transaction – and for which they have been compensated – actually materialise.</p>
<p>This suggests that Africa needs to advocate more aggressively for its own interests. </p>
<p>This year offers some good opportunities to promote a more effective approach to African debt. </p>
<h2>Careful planning needed</h2>
<p>There are two <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/financing-for-development/">international</a> <a href="https://www.un.org/en/summit-of-the-future#:%7E:text=22%2D23%20September%202024,Solutions%20for%20a%20Better%20Tomorrow">conferences</a> where global economic governance will be on the agenda. This is also the first year that the African Union participates as a full member in the G20. In addition, South Africa, the G20 chair in 2025, currently serves on the troika that manages the G20 process. </p>
<p>Debt and development finance will be an important topic in all these forums. African representatives can use their participation to advocate for a new approach to sovereign debt that is more responsive to African needs and concerns. They can also lobby other participating states and non-state actors for their support.</p>
<p>But African states will need to plan carefully. Their starting point should be the well recognised fact that the current sovereign debt restructuring process is not working for anyone. The G20 agreed a <a href="https://clubdeparis.org/sites/default/files/annex_common_framework_for_debt_treatments_beyond_the_dssi.pdf">Common Framework</a> that was supposed to help resolve the sovereign debt crises in low income countries. <a href="https://saiia.org.za/research/africas-debt-priorities-a-sustainability-perspective-required-support-from-the-g20/#:%7E:text=The%20Common%20Framework%20was%20established,applied%20include%20Ethiopia%20and%20Ghana.">Four African countries</a> applied to have their debts restructured through the framework. Despite years of negotiations, it has failed to fully resolve the debt crisis in three of them. </p>
<p>Countries outside the Common Framework, such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/sri-lanka-bondholders-raise-concerns-over-debt-deal-transparency-2023-12-01/">Sri Lanka</a>, have not managed to fully resolve their debt crises either. This is costly for both debtors and creditors. It is therefore in everyone’s interest to look for a new approach.</p>
<p>This requires all parties to be willing to entertain new ideas and to experiment with new approaches to old problems. African states should offer their own innovative proposals. They should also state that they are willing to take on new responsibilities if their creditors are willing to do the same.</p>
<p>They can remind their creditors that these experiments would not be taking place in a vacuum. They can be guided by the many existing, but underutilised, international norms and standards applicable to responsible sovereign debt transactions, for example the Unctad principles on <a href="https://unctad.org/publication/principles-promoting-responsible-sovereign-lending-and-borrowing#:%7E:text=Sovereign%20lending%20and%20borrowing%20conducted,neighbors%20and%20its%20trading%20partners.">responsible sovereign debt transactions</a>. Some of these relate to the conduct of sovereign borrowers. Others focus on responsible lending behaviour and are often cited by creditors in their own policies dealing with environmental and social issues, social responsibility or human rights. </p>
<p>By basing any new approach on these international norms and standards, both debtors and creditors will merely be agreeing to implement principles that they have already accepted. </p>
<p>Working from this starting point, African states should make three specific proposals. </p>
<h2>Concrete proposals</h2>
<p>First, they should commit to making both the process for incurring debts and the terms of all their public debt transactions transparent. </p>
<p>This will ensure that their own citizens understand what obligations their governments are assuming on their behalf. It will encourage governments to adopt responsible borrowing and debt management practices. They should also agree that they can be held accountable for their failure to comply with these transparent and responsible sovereign debt practices and procedures.</p>
<p>Second, African states should point out that there is a fundamental problem with a sovereign debt restructuring process that only focuses on the contractual obligations that the debtor state owes its creditors. This focus means, in effect, that servicing its debt obligations will trump the debtor state’s efforts to deal with the country’s vulnerability to climate change and the loss of biodiversity, and with its poverty, inequality and unemployment challenges. This follows from the fact that their creditors can use the restructuring process to force sovereign borrowers in difficulty, unlike corporations in bankruptcy, to pay those who lend them money without regard, for example, to the impact on their obligations to pensioners, public sector employees or the welfare of their citizens. </p>
<p>This exclusive focus on debt contracts is inconsistent with the international community’s interest in addressing global challenges like climate and inequality. </p>
<p>This problem can be resolved if both creditors and debtors agree that they will adopt an approach to debt negotiations that incorporates the financial, economic, social, environmental, human rights and governance dimensions of sovereign debt crises.</p>
<p>Third, African states should propose that their creditors publicly commit to base the new approach to sovereign debt on an agreed list of international norms and standards relevant to responsible international financial practices. These will include those dealing with transparency, climate and environmental issues, and social matters, including human rights.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223982/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Danny Bradlow previously had a grant from ther Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa to work on issues relating to sovereign debt. </span></em></p>Africa needs to advocate more aggressively for its own interests when it comes to negotiating debt terms.Danny Bradlow, Professor/Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancement of Scholarship, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228182024-02-16T13:03:55Z2024-02-16T13:03:55ZExtraction of raw materials could rise 60% by 2060 – and making mining ‘greener’ won’t stop the damage<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575311/original/file-20240213-16-g7d1en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Extractive mining is predicted to increase drastically by 2060</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industry-banner-open-pit-mine-extractive-2235404905">Parilov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United Nations’ flagship <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/31/raw-materials-extraction-2060-un-report">Global Resources Outlook</a> report is the portrait of a juggernaut. Due to be published later this month by the UN’s International Resource Panel, <a href="https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/coming-soon-global-resources-outlook-2024">it highlights</a> how global consumption of raw materials, having increased four-fold since 1970, is set to rise by a further 60% by 2060. </p>
<p>Already, the <a href="https://courier.unesco.org/en/articles/unbearable-burden-technosphere">technosphere</a> — the totality of human-made products, from airports to Zimmer frames — is heavier than <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-3010-5">the biosphere</a>. From the 2020s onward, the weight of humanity’s extended body — the concrete shells that keep us sheltered, the metal wings that fly us around — have exceeded that of all life on Earth. Producing this volume of stuff is a major contributor to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn">global heating</a> and ocean acidification, and the rapidly accelerating extinction of plants and animals.</p>
<p>As the UN report spells out, the extractive activities that lie behind the concrete, metal and other materials we use are disrupting the balance of the planet’s ecosystems. The mining industry requires the annexation of large tracts of land for extraction and transportation; its energy consumption has <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023001115">more than tripled</a> since the 1970s. </p>
<p>That upward curve is set to continue. The demand for materials is rising, the quality of ores such <a href="https://steadystate.org/two-cheers-for-circularity/">as copper</a> is declining, and deeper and more remote mines <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/green-growth-9781783604876/">require extra energy for extraction</a>. More seams will be dug and more mountains moved to bring glittering fortunes to some while many regions, above all in developing countries, become <a href="https://read.dukeupress.edu/environmental-humanities/article/15/1/3/343379/Sacrifice-ZonesA-Genealogy-and-Analysis-of-an">sacrifice zones</a>.</p>
<h2>Critical raw materials</h2>
<p>Attention is increasingly focused on a particular class of material. “Critical” and “strategic” raw materials are those that face supply risk either in their scarcity or their geographical concentration, and which the major powers require for their military sectors and for competitive advantage in tech industries. Right now, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/04/europe-miles-behind-race-raw-materials-electric-car-batteries-lithium-cobalt-nickel">race for critical materials</a> is geopolitical: each major power wants to secure supplies in allied countries.</p>
<p>Critical raw materials are indispensable to the green transition too. The EU, for example, deems nickel a <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2011:0025:FIN:en:PDF">strategic</a> material in view of its role in batteries. </p>
<p>A wind turbine can require <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/24d5dfbb-a77a-4647-abcc-667867207f74/TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.pdf">nine times</a> the mineral inputs of a typical gas-fired power plant, while the average electric vehicle contains between <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/24d5dfbb-a77a-4647-abcc-667867207f74/TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.pdf">six</a> and ten times those of its conventional counterpart, according to the UN report that is due to be published on February 26. </p>
<p>None of this means that a green economy would use greater quantities of materials than the current fossil fuel-based one. Energy consumption due to mineral demand for energy transition technologies is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023001115">dwarfed by</a> that which arises from mineral demand for the rest of the economy. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the mineral demand of the energy transition stokes the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/net-zero-will-mean-a-mining-boom-electric-cars-minerals-oil-fossil-fuels-climate-change-policy-cb8d5137">mining boom</a> in such sectors as copper and lithium.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Back of man in orange hi-vis jacket and white hard hard looking across to copper mine, brown roads and pits, grey sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The need for critical raw materials, such as copper, is rising, but mining must develop more sustainable practices.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/copper-mine-worker-open-pit-surveying-2299216889">Einstock/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Urban mining</h2>
<p>Mining must change in order to reduce its environmental impact. On the supply side, recovering minerals from waste goods can be ramped up, for instance by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/28/retailers-to-pay-for-consumers-e-waste-recycling-from-2026-under-uk-plans">forcing retailers to offer collections</a> of household electronic waste that can be sent for enhanced recycling. </p>
<p>There is scope for urban mining: for example, locating copper from <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344922006723">inactive underground power cables</a> or recovering elements from <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344922006723">construction waste</a>, sewage, incinerator ash and other garbage zones.</p>
<p>In practice, however, the use of secondary materials relative to newly-extracted ones is <a href="https://steadystate.org/two-cheers-for-circularity/">declining</a>. The recovery rates of minerals from recycling remain low. Another <a href="https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/recycling-rates-metals">UN study</a> of 60 metals found the recycling rate for most of them was below one percent. </p>
<p>The current economic system makes extractive mining cheaper and easier than urban mining. Extractive mining involves the purchase of cheap land, often in developing countries. </p>
<p>That land gets dug up, pulverised and processed in a simple flow that is amenable to capital-intensive operations. Urban mining by contrast is often labour-intensive and requires a complex and state-enforced <a href="http://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/urban-mining-reuse-recycle-old-goods-electronics-save-planet-climate-crisis/">regulation of waste streams</a>.</p>
<p>Urban mining suffers from the refusal of governments to shift taxation from labour to “the use of non-renewable resources”, as <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9780230288843">Walter Stahel</a>, an originator of the circular economy concept, recommended in 2006. Until robust regulation and taxation is introduced, all forms of circular economy risk unleashing <a href="https://www.greeneconomycoalition.org/news-and-resources/circular-economy-isnt-enough-we-need-system-change">rebound effects</a>. </p>
<p>So, throwing more materials onto the market lowers prices, which tends to expedite economic growth, raise energy consumption, and proliferate environmental harms. In short, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12545">there is nothing intrinsically “green”</a> about urban mining or the circular economy. The progressive potential of all such engineering programmes is governed by the political-economic framework.</p>
<h2>Is degrowth the answer?</h2>
<p>The insufficiency of engineering and <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/green-growth-9781783604876/">green growth</a> programmes has informed the waxing interest in “degrowth” strategies. This term is not intended to suggest that all economic sectors should shrink, but that for society-nature relations to regain some balance, the unsustainable global use of materials and energy must radically reduce, and in an egalitarian manner. </p>
<p>As the scale of the environmental crisis grows more daunting, even moderate voices — not degrowthers — have recognised that certain sectors, such as shipping and aviation, will have to be <a href="http://www.eng.cam.ac.uk/news/absolute-zero">cut to virtually zero</a> over the next 20 or 30 years.</p>
<p>What does this mean for critical minerals? According to degrowth advocate <a href="https://www.jasonhickel.org/blog/2023/12/21/accelerationist-possibilities-in-an-ecosocialist-degrowth-scenario">Jason Hickel</a>, political means should be forged through which to plan priority sectors.</p>
<p>Reducing luxury and wasteful sectors such as SUVs, aviation and fast fashion would free up critical materials for the green transition. “Factories that produce SUVs could produce solar panels instead,” suggests Hickel. “Engineers who are presently developing private jets could work on innovating more efficient trains and wind turbines instead.”</p>
<p>Such practical examples highlight the possibility that today’s predictions of utterly unsustainable materials throughput by 2060 could at least be revised downward.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gareth Dale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Extractive mining disrupts the balance of the planet’s ecosystems and is set to rise. Could urban mining or degrowth help curb unsustainable practices?Gareth Dale, Reader in Political Economy, Brunel University LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234842024-02-15T14:54:18Z2024-02-15T14:54:18ZMigratory animals face mass extinction – but as a conservationist I’m optimistic<p>The world is facing three planetary crises: biodiversity loss, climate change and environmental pollution. Recognised threats to biodiversity include <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/536143a">habitat loss and overexploitation</a> but new analyses suggest that migratory species are faring particularly badly.</p>
<p>The global extinction risk is increasing for all migratory species. Importantly, however, there is cause for optimism. </p>
<p>I’m writing this in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, for the 14th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Migratory Species. This UN biodiversity treaty came into being in 1983 to support the conservation and sustainable use of migratory species. </p>
<p>I’m here with representatives of many of the world’s governments, United Nations agencies and various environmental organisations. The aim of the meeting is to review implementation of the convention, consider including additional species under the treaty and address emerging issues of concern for migratory species. </p>
<p>This is a flagship event. It is the first time that member countries have met in person since the COVID pandemic and the first such meeting ever to be held in Central Asia. </p>
<h2>Status update</h2>
<p>A landmark <a href="https://www.cms.int/sites/default/files/document/cms_cop14_doc.21.1_state-of-migratory-species_e.pdf">report</a> titled the State of the World’s Migratory Species has been launched at the meeting, the first ever report of its kind. The results are alarming. </p>
<p>They indicate that three in four species included under the convention are affected by habitat loss, degradation and fragmentation and seven in ten listed species are threatened by direct use and trade to varying degrees. Worse still, they suggest that the extinction risk is increasing for all migratory species, including those not included under the convention. </p>
<p>Some species are of particular concern. Populations of fish included under the convention have declined on average by 90% since 1970. Many species under the convention that need or would significantly benefit from international cooperation, are identified as high priorities for further conservation action based on their conservation status and biological vulnerability. </p>
<p>These include 90 species of bird (including the whooping crane), 18 terrestrial mammals (such as the African hunting dog) and 12 aquatic mammals (such as the Amazon river dolphin). In some cases, this is despite these animals having been listed under the convention for decades. </p>
<p>This report is important because it details the range of threats that migrating species face. Animals migrate for various reasons including to find food, to reproduce, and ultimately to survive. Importantly, they do not respect national borders. </p>
<p>They may also face different threats along migration routes. Understanding the scope and severity of these threats where they occur is therefore essential to informing conservation action, especially in the context of the triple planetary crises. </p>
<h2>Effective action</h2>
<p>More broadly the report is important because it enables an assessment of how conservation efforts to conserve migratory species listed under the convention are working or if they are not. The results also call into question the effectiveness of the convention itself. </p>
<p>The effectiveness of multilateral environmental agreements can be measured in various ways but arguably the most critical measure of effectiveness is whether such agreements are solving the problem for which they were designed.</p>
<p>There are various reasons why such agreements are not always as effective as they could be. These include a lack of political will, a lack of resources to identify and implement context-specific measures at relevant scales and a lack of resources for law enforcement. </p>
<p>Success stories do shine through, though. Native to central Asia, the saiga antelope was included in the convention in 2006. This has proven key to catalysing concerted conservation action for the saiga. </p>
<p>In 2006, all range countries for this species, including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, also signed a memorandum of understanding vowing to restore saiga populations by improving monitoring, reducing poaching and illegal trade and creating alternative livelihood options for local communities.</p>
<p>Saiga range countries are well on their way to achieving this objective. In the last 15 years, new knowledge of the saiga antelope’s ecology, migration and trade has been generated and effective anti-poaching measures have been implemented. </p>
<p>As a result, the saiga was moved from critically endangered to near threatened on the <a href="https://www.iucn.org/press-release/202312/freshwater-fish-highlight-escalating-climate-impacts-species-iucn-red-list">International Union for Conservation of Nature</a> red list of threatened species in 2023. This has been possible because of political will in range countries but also because of collaboration between government agencies, conservation practitioners, environmental organisations and academics. </p>
<p>Here in Samarkand, this collaborative effort is clear to see. For the saiga, collaborators have focused on several aspects of the species’ conservation. These include evaluating management approaches, sustainable use of the species, stockpile management, building the saiga conservation network and identifying key research needs along international supply chains.</p>
<h2>Catalysing cross-border conservation</h2>
<p>While headlines are bleak, I feel optimistic. This landmark meeting has been positive and I’ve noticed a renewed sense of commitment to improve the conservation of migratory species. There is a clear sense that the governments gathered here know what they need to do. It is now about getting on and doing it. </p>
<p>This reflects the fact that the scientific community does know how to conserve species. Conservation measures should be context-specific, applied at relevant scales, and socially legitimate among local communities and Indigenous peoples if they are to be <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/sustainable-use-assessment">successful</a>. </p>
<p>Renewed commitment to conservation solutions identified in this report could build political will to act together. If member countries can rise to the challenge, then there is hope for the world’s migratory species.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dan Challender receives funding from the UKRI Global Challenges Research Fund (UKRI GCRF) through the Trade, Development, and the Environment Hub and the Paul G. Allen Family Foundation, and has previously received funding from the National Geographic Society. He is CITES Focal Point for the IUCN SSC Pangolin Specialist Group and is a member of the IUCN CEESP/SSC Sustainable Use and Livelihoods Specialist Group.</span></em></p>Nature knows no borders. While decline of threatened migratory animals is alarming, there are reasons to be optimistic about international conservation efforts.Dan Challender, Research Fellow, Conservation Science and Policy, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231392024-02-08T17:51:39Z2024-02-08T17:51:39ZGaza update: Netanyahu knocks back Hamas peace plan while the prospect of mass famine looms ever larger<p>The Israeli military is poised to enter what its defence minister, Yoav Gallant, has referred to as the “last centre of gravity that remains in Hamas’s hands: Rafah”. Unfortunately for many of the 1.7 million people reportedly displaced by Israel’s four-month onslaught in Gaza, this is where more than a million of them have taken refuge, according to the latest estimates.</p>
<p>As the Gaza death toll compiled by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) surpassed 26,750 people, with a further 65,000-plus people wounded, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, rejected a peace deal proposed by Hamas and relayed by Egyptian and Qatari negotiators as “deluded”. </p>
<p>The proposed three-part plan was for a staged cessation of hostilities and prisoner-hostage swap, with the aim of ending the war completely via negotiations to be finalised by the time the final hostages had been returned.</p>
<p>Insisting that “the day after [the war] is the day after Hamas – all of Hamas”, Netanyahu said he intended to press on until Israel had achieved “total victory”.</p>
<p>But Anne Irfan, an expert in the history of the modern Middle East from University College London, <a href="https://theconversation.com/netanyahus-position-becoming-more-uncertain-as-israeli-pm-rejects-hamas-deal-to-end-war-223113">believes</a> the Israeli prime minister may be thinking it is in his own interests to keep the conflict going as long as he can. His personal approval ratings are abysmal – only 15% of Israelis in a recent survey said they thought he should keep his job after the war ends.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574411/original/file-20240208-24-86knbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing the latest developments in Israel's war with Hamas." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574411/original/file-20240208-24-86knbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574411/original/file-20240208-24-86knbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574411/original/file-20240208-24-86knbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574411/original/file-20240208-24-86knbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574411/original/file-20240208-24-86knbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574411/original/file-20240208-24-86knbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574411/original/file-20240208-24-86knbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map of Israel’s war with Hamas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Institute for the Study of War</span></span>
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<p>Meanwhile, Netanyahu is increasingly trapped between the clamour from the families of the Israeli hostages still trapped in Gaza, and the intransigence of the far-right members of his own government who won’t consider doing a deal with Hamas. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/netanyahus-position-becoming-more-uncertain-as-israeli-pm-rejects-hamas-deal-to-end-war-223113">Netanyahu's position becoming more uncertain as Israeli PM rejects Hamas deal to end war</a>
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<p>Netanyahu has also resisted international pressure to consider a two-state solution, which would by definition involve a sovereign Palestine, insisting that Israel is the only state that can guarantee regional security in the long term. </p>
<p>Despite Netanyahu’s wholesale rejection of the notion of Palestinian statehood, both the US and UK have said they are considering the possibility of recognising Palestine after the conflict ends. The UK foreign secretary, David Cameron, said such a move would be “absolutely vital for the long-term peace and security of the region”.</p>
<p>They would be coming into line with much of the rest of the world: 139 of 193 UN members have already recognised the state of Palestine, which has sat in the UN as a “non-member observer state” since 2012, and has already acceded to many of its human rights treaties.</p>
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<p><em>Gaza Update is available as a fortnightly email newsletter. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/gaza-update-159?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Gaza">Click here to get our updates directly in your inbox</a>.</em></p>
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<p>Tonny Raymond Kirabira, an expert in international law at the University of East London, walks us through the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-and-us-may-recognise-state-of-palestine-after-gaza-war-what-this-important-step-would-mean-222538">complex issues</a> involved in becoming a state. At the moment, international law dictates that the prerequsites for statehood are a permanent population, a defined territory, a government, and the capacity to enter into relations with other states. As Kirabira reminds us, questions remains whether Palestine actually possesses a “defined territory” and “effective government”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-and-us-may-recognise-state-of-palestine-after-gaza-war-what-this-important-step-would-mean-222538">UK and US may recognise state of Palestine after Gaza war – what this important step would mean</a>
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<p>So what is the two-state solution? It’s a vexed issue that has been exercising the minds of peacemakers since before the state of Israel was even formally declared in 1948. An early UN partition plan called for what was then known as the “Mandate of Palestine” – under British control – to be divided into separate Jewish and Arab states.</p>
<p>Andrew Thomas, an expert in the politics of the Middle East from Deakin University in Australia, runs through the various iterations of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-two-state-solution-to-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict-221872">two-state solution</a> since 1948 – and recalls the <a href="https://theconversation.com/jan-egeland-remembers-the-secret-negotiations-that-led-to-the-oslo-accords-podcast-213092">Oslo accords</a> in the 1990s, when the then-Israeli prime minister, Yitzhak Rabin, and the head of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO), Yasser Arafat, got so close to agreeing a solution which would have recognised Palestine as a state while guaranteeing Israeli security. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-two-state-solution-to-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict-221872">Explainer: what is the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?</a>
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<h2>War crime and punishment</h2>
<p>Netanyahu’s pledge to push on to total victory, meanwhile, flies in the face of demands made by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) more than a week ago. The ICJ ordered Israel to take steps to prevent genocidal actions in Gaza, to punish incitement to genocide, to allow Gaza’s people access to humanitarian aid, and to preserve and collect any evidence of war crimes committed during the conflict.</p>
<p>It appears Israel has not yet done any of these things, although it has about another three weeks until it is due to report back to the ICJ. Basema Al-Alami, an expert in international law from the University of Toronto, considers how reports of what is happening on the ground in Gaza <a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-isnt-complying-with-the-international-court-of-justice-ruling-what-happens-next-222350">conflict with the ICJ’s demands</a>, and also what pressure the ICJ rulings will put on Israel’s international donors to reconsider their stance.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-isnt-complying-with-the-international-court-of-justice-ruling-what-happens-next-222350">Israel isn't complying with the International Court of Justice ruling — what happens next?</a>
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<p>It didn’t take the international community long to act after Israel raised allegations that some staff from the UN’s Relief and Works Agency for Palestine refugees (UNRWA) had taken part in Hamas’s October 7 massacres. Within days, 18 donor countries including the UK and US had pulled their support for UNRWA, the principal charity supplying aid to Palestinians.</p>
<p>UCL’s Irfan and Jo Kelcey of the Lebanese American University assess the <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-conflict-what-is-unrwa-and-why-is-israel-calling-for-its-abolition-222310">fallout from this mass withdrawal of support</a>, concluding that it could be catastrophic for Palestinians in Gaza, 87% of whom are dependent on UNRWA for its services which include food aid, shelter and medical care. They also point out that Israel’s allegations about the involvement of UNRWA staff in October 7 came the day after the ICJ published its interim ruling.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-conflict-what-is-unrwa-and-why-is-israel-calling-for-its-abolition-222310">Gaza conflict: what is UNRWA and why is Israel calling for its abolition?</a>
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<p>Greg Kennedy, an expert in strategic foreign policy issues at King’s College London, believes that Israel is deliberately <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-weaponisation-of-food-has-been-used-in-conflicts-for-centuries-but-it-hasnt-always-resulted-in-victory-221476">weaponising food supplies</a> in Gaza. He writes that it has been a tactic of war for centuries, and that sieges and blockades remain part of the arsenal of armed conflict.</p>
<p>Starvation, Kennedy adds, can seriously undermine morale and the will to resist. It is also a collective punishment – something explicitly banned under international humanitarian law.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-weaponisation-of-food-has-been-used-in-conflicts-for-centuries-but-it-hasnt-always-resulted-in-victory-221476">Gaza: weaponisation of food has been used in conflicts for centuries – but it hasn't always resulted in victory</a>
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<h2>There goes the neighbourhood</h2>
<p>Day by day, missile by missile, tensions are ratcheting up around the region as Iran-backed proxies, who have been targeting US military bases for years, have stepped up their campaign of harassment. Taken individually, these attacks are of little significance. As Middle East expert Julie Norman from UCL notes, neither Iran nor the US <a href="https://theconversation.com/middle-east-crisis-us-airstrikes-against-iran-backed-armed-groups-explained-222768">wants to wage a major conflict</a> at the moment – but both countries have political reasons for wanting to act tough. </p>
<p>In Iran, the Islamic Republic presides over a parlous economy and considerable public unrest as the “woman, life, freedom” mass protests continue. In the White House, meanwhile, Joe Biden wants a telegenic show of US force without embroiling his country in a major land war.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/middle-east-crisis-us-airstrikes-against-iran-backed-armed-groups-explained-222768">Middle East crisis: US airstrikes against Iran-backed armed groups explained</a>
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<p>George W. Bush once joked to troops in the Middle East: “You don’t run for office in a democracy and say, ‘Please vote for me, I promise you war.’” And as Andrew Payne, an international security expert from City, University of London notes, Bush – as well as his successor in the White House, Barack Obama, and even the vainglorious Donald Trump (who said of a recent attack on a US base in Jordan: “This attack would NEVER have happened if I was president, not even a chance.”) – grew increasingly averse to military action as the next election loomed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/middle-east-conflict-joe-biden-must-weigh-the-risks-of-using-force-in-an-election-year-222410">Middle East conflict: Joe Biden must weigh the risks of using force in an election year</a>
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<p>Christoph Bluth, an expert in international affairs at the University of Bradford, presents a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-iran-controls-a-network-of-armed-groups-to-pursue-its-regional-strategy-221520">cast list of Iran’s affiliates</a> in the region, and explains how Tehran is using them to further its long-term aims in the region – from replacing the US as the dominant power to establishing an “axis of resistance” that could potentially box in Israel.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-iran-controls-a-network-of-armed-groups-to-pursue-its-regional-strategy-221520">How Iran controls a network of armed groups to pursue its regional strategy</a>
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<p><em>Gaza Update is available as a fortnightly email newsletter. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/gaza-update-159?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Gaza">Click here to get our updates directly in your inbox</a>.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223139/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A selection of analysis from our coverage of the war in Gaza over the past fortnight.Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208532024-02-07T01:35:47Z2024-02-07T01:35:47ZHow international recognition of cultural practices could be a new way to protect refugees<p>More than <a href="https://www.unrefugees.org/news/refugee-camps-explained/">6.6 million refugees</a> live in camps located largely in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. In these camp communities, unique cultural practices can arise. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jrs/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jrs/fead092/7484727?searchresult=1">In our new research</a>, we found the oral histories and healing practices of the Bhutanese refugees in Nepal changed over the decades they spent in camps.</p>
<p>In other words, camps foster new and unique cultural practices.</p>
<p>Camps are dynamic, culturally significant spaces. This finding does not celebrate refugee camps. It does recognise the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/podcast-episode/refugees-living-with-loss-of-identity-family-language-culture-and-home/4wr7e4pil">strength and tenacity</a> of people living in these situations. </p>
<p>But the cultural practices in the Bhutanese camps are now threatened because the refugees and their cultural practices don’t have legal protections. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jrs/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jrs/fead092/7484727?searchresult=1">We propose</a> the significance of these cultural practices may provide an alternative pathway to protection.</p>
<h2>Protecting remaining refugees</h2>
<p>Camps managed by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) provide legal protection and basic support for people fleeing persecution. But what happens when camps officially close but refugees remain?</p>
<p>Last a year a Bhutanese refugee, and our long-term research partner, asked us this question. He was part of one of the world’s largest resettlement programs for refugees. After decades in camps, between 2007 and 2015 almost all <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/au/news/stories/resettlement-bhutanese-refugees-surpasses-100-000-mark">100,000 refugees</a> from Bhutan were resettled in the United States, Canada, Europe, the United Kingdom, and <a href="https://unsw.press/books/bhutan-to-blacktown/">Australia</a>. </p>
<p>Not everyone was resettled. Roughly <a href="https://kathmandupost.com/national/2021/12/04/nepal-preparing-to-issue-identification-cards-to-refugees-living-in-the-country">6,000 refugees</a> remain in Nepal due to old age, ill health and hope for repatriation to Bhutan, and some are newly arrived political prisoners <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/09/13/bhutan-freed-political-prisoner-describes-dire-conditions-0">only just released</a>. </p>
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<p>These people are still refugees. They cannot go home, and have limited ways to build a new life in Nepal. But the UNHCR has phased out its involvement in the camps. The refugees’ legal protections and food rations are being cut. These refugees are sitting in limbo, with their homes, their community and their unique culture having no legal protections. </p>
<p>For decades <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/enigma-bhutan/">Bhutan has refused to take back</a> the people they ethnically cleansed. Nepal refuses to grant them citizenship. There aren’t many pathways to protecting refugees once the UNHCR is not involved. </p>
<p>It is necessary to think creatively to identify possible solutions to protect these remaining refugees. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theyre-really-keen-for-us-to-do-better-than-they-did-how-refugee-parents-motivate-their-kids-learning-172308">'They're really keen for us to do better than they did': how refugee parents motivate their kids' learning</a>
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<h2>Unique cultural practices</h2>
<p>We were particularly interested in the refugees’ oral histories and the rituals of their traditional healers, known as jumping doctors. </p>
<p>Oral histories are a key way communities make sense of the past and find meaning in their current situation. While the oldest refugees understood their exile in terms of religious persecution, the generations raised in the camps saw their history primarily in terms of being advocates for democracy. </p>
<p>The oral histories of the Bhutanese refugees changed in the camps as they interacted with the governing organisation, which provided a robust education in democratic values. </p>
<p>Without protections, the remaining refugees may face restrictions in transmitting their oral histories. </p>
<p>Camp management also provided protection and certifications for traditional healers to practice their craft. Their healing rituals involve the creation of healing effigies, drumming, jumping and chanting. In Nepal, the number of traditional healers is <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/85900">dwindling</a> and healers are not recognised via a certification process. </p>
<p>Without the protections from the UNHCR, jumping doctors and their knowledge may disappear. </p>
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<p>UNESCO’s <a href="https://ich.unesco.org/en/convention">Convention for the Safeguarding of Intangible Cultural Heritage</a> might be a way to protect these practices and, by extension, the refugees who remain after UNHCR withdraws from a camp. </p>
<p>We tend to think of UNESCO Heritage Sites as physical places like <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2024/01/12/might-paris-notre-dame-cathedral-steal-2024-as-much-as-the-olympics/?sh=7eb79f785adf">Notre Dame</a> or the <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/can-unesco-save-great-barrier-reef">Great Barrier Reef</a>. </p>
<p>But UNESCO also safeguards <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/08/1218354470/55-cultural-practices-added-to-unescos-list-of-intangible-cultural-heritage">cultural practices</a>, such as dance, theatre, food and craftsmanship. Through the intangible heritage convention, unique cultural practices and practices at risk of being lost can gain recognition. The hope is recognition will support <a href="https://ich.unesco.org/doc/src/34299-EN.pdf">sustainable development</a>, open up funding pathways and ensure cultural knowledge does not disappear. </p>
<p>To gain recognition, a cultural practice must be nominated. Ideally, communities will self-nominate a cultural practice they recognise as significant, is transmitted and recreated across generations, and provides a sense of identity. </p>
<p>We analysed the nomination process and found significant gaps between the goal of having communities nominate their practices and how it is implemented. This means the culture of communities based in refugee camps are at a significant disadvantage.</p>
<h2>Towards a fairer process</h2>
<p>Currently, nomination forms are only available in English and French. Communities that lack access to education in these languages may struggle to complete the forms. To be accessible to all communities, the form should be available in a variety of languages.</p>
<p>When examining the nomination process, it became clear some minority groups, refugees and stateless people will struggle to have their cultural heritage recognised. This is because governments of nation-states verify the community practice meets the nomination requirements and they ultimately have responsibility for the protection framework. </p>
<p>It is unlikely nation-states will nominate or accept responsibility for protection of cultural activities in refugee camps. The current process means refugees are subject to the whims of nations’ priorities.</p>
<p>It doesn’t have to be this way. The nomination process could be modified so communities can self-verify. Further, it may be necessary that organisations beyond or outside of the nation-state take on responsibility for the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/intangible-cultural-heritage-in-international-law-9780199679508">protection of intangible cultural heritage</a>. </p>
<p>Linking to a globally recognised brand like UNESCO could provide livelihood strategies for situations like the Bhutanese refugees. For example, the Bhutanese want to build a memorial centre to ensure their oral histories are recorded. International recognition could help them secure funding and create employment opportunities. Global recognition could attract visitors to the memorial centre. </p>
<p>This is not to suggest refugee camps should become tourist destinations, but it may provide a way for them to make decisions about their own cultural practices.</p>
<p>Refugee camps are not generally thought of as culturally significant sites. But it is clear from our work with Bhutanese refugees the <a href="https://ualbertapress.ca/9781772127034/the-elephant-has-two-sets-of-teeth/">camps are sites of important cultural practice</a> but refugees have limited scope to advocate for safeguarding these practices. </p>
<p>A truly community-driven path for cultural heritage protection through UNESCO could be an avenue to achieve this important goal.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-social-media-is-breathing-new-life-into-bhutans-unwritten-local-languages-210280">How social media is breathing new life into Bhutan’s unwritten local languages</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220853/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Camps are dynamic, culturally significant spaces. We propose the significance of these cultural practices may provide an alternative pathway to protection.Alice Neikirk, Program Convenor, Criminology, University of NewcastleRay Nickson, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Newcastle Law School, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205242024-02-06T13:30:51Z2024-02-06T13:30:51ZA two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians might actually be closer than ever<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573592/original/file-20240205-29-qs6cet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A view of destroyed buildings and roads is shown in Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Feb. 2, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-destruction-with-destroyed-buildings-and-roads-news-photo/1973206078?adppopup=true">Abdulqader Sabbah/Anadolu via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the war in the Gaza Strip <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/03/fresh-strikes-southern-gaza-talks-two-month-pause-killed-injured-palestinians">enters its fourth month</a>, on the surface it might seem like possibilities for long-term, peaceful solutions are impossible. Even before the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel by Hamas-led forces from Gaza, many analysts were already declaring the idea of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/9/19/it-is-time-to-acknowledge-the-death-of-the-two-state-solution">a two-state solution dead</a>. </p>
<p>There are real barriers to the creation of a Palestinian state alongside a separate Israel. For example, the current Israeli government <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/21/israels-netanyahu-doubles-down-on-opposition-to-palestinian-statehood">rejects the creation</a> of a Palestinian state, and <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-12-14/ty-article/top-hamas-official-suggests-recognizing-israel-following-official-plo-stance/0000018c-67e4-d798-adac-e7ef81fd0000">Hamas refuses</a> to recognize Israel. After Oct. 7, <a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-palestinian-conflict-is-the-two-state-solution-now-dead-221967">some analysts</a> think the barriers are <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-02-13/two-state-solution-for-israel-palestine-hopes-dashed-alternatives">even more</a> insurmountable.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://asu.academia.edu/BenjaminCase">scholar of political violence and conflict</a>, I think the unprecedented scale of violence in Israel and Gaza is creating equally unprecedented urgency to find a solution, not just to the current violence, but to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.</p>
<p>Few, if any, historical conflicts neatly compare to the one between Israelis and Palestinians. But there are similarities in the fall of apartheid in South Africa in the early 1990s, when growing international pressure and an intensifying war focused attention on an unsustainable system – and pushed people to find possibilities for peace that previously seemed impossible.</p>
<h2>The fall of South African apartheid</h2>
<p>In 1948, the white-nationalist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/National-Party-political-party-South-Africa">Afrikaner National Party</a> was elected to run South Africa, a country that had already been controlled by a colonial white minority government. </p>
<p>The National Party formalized racial segregation policies in a system known as <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/history-apartheid-south-africa">apartheid</a>, an Afrikaans word that means “apartness” or “separateness.” Apartheid ranked people by racial group, with white people at the top, Asian and people of mixed heritage lower, and Black people at the bottom with the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/history-apartheid-south-africa">most restrictions and fewest rights</a> – for example, to live or work where they chose.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573574/original/file-20240205-15-wxrl8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Black man walks away from a limestone building, while a white man is seen entering on the other side. There are two signs above the entryways, one that shows a black man and the other shows a white man." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573574/original/file-20240205-15-wxrl8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573574/original/file-20240205-15-wxrl8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573574/original/file-20240205-15-wxrl8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573574/original/file-20240205-15-wxrl8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573574/original/file-20240205-15-wxrl8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573574/original/file-20240205-15-wxrl8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573574/original/file-20240205-15-wxrl8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A Black man leaves a segregated public bathroom in Johannesburg, South Africa, while a white man enters the bathroom on a different side in 1985.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/black-man-leaving-and-white-man-entering-segregated-public-news-photo/72367774?adppopup=true">William F. Campbell/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Apartheid <a href="https://www.history.com/news/apartheid-policies-photos-nelson-mandela">resulted in deep poverty</a> and indignity for Black communities, quickly generating <a href="https://www.nonviolent-conflict.org/anti-apartheid-struggle-south-africa-1912-1992/">anti-apartheid social movements</a> that South African police tried to violently suppress. </p>
<p>The collapse of apartheid policies in the early 1990s is often attributed to a combination of South African resistance and the economic pressure brought by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/23/israel-apartheid-boycotts-sanctions-south-africa">international anti-apartheid boycotts</a> of South Africa.</p>
<p>There was another <a href="https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/pcw/98678.htm">major factor</a>, though: South Africa’s “<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/12/annals-of-wars-we-dont-know-about-the-south-african-border-war-of-1966-1989/">border war</a>” in Namibia and Angola.</p>
<p>Since 1948, South Africa had imposed its apartheid policies over a neighboring region it occupied after World War II, then called South-West Africa, which <a href="https://www.namibiahc.org.uk/history.php">is now Namibia</a>.</p>
<p>Like Black South Africans, people in South-West Africa resisted apartheid. Beginning in the 1960s, South Africa’s military began employing local militias in South-West Africa to combat a <a href="https://mcfarlandbooks.com/product/the-namibian-war-of-independence-1966-1989/">Namibian independence</a> movement. Soon after, South Africa attempted to expand its control over neighboring Angola, which was in civil war after winning independence from Portugal.</p>
<p>The war in South-West Africa and Angola <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/proxy-war">became a proxy</a> for the ongoing Cold War and Western countries’ fear of communism spreading. The U.S. supported South Africa’s army and pro-Western militias, while the Soviet Union and Cuba supported pro-independence fighters. Cuba would eventually send <a href="https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB67/">30,000 troops</a> to fight on the ground on Angola’s side.</p>
<p>By the 1980s, the conflict was <a href="https://www.thecollector.com/south-african-border-war-vietnam/">escalating</a> into wider war, threatening to pull the United States and Soviet Union into direct conflict. </p>
<p>South Africa was forced to mobilize its reserve troops, and white South Africans began protesting at home. It was becoming clear that not just the war but <a href="https://iupress.org/9780253210623/comrades-against-apartheid/">the country’s brutal apartheid system</a> was not sustainable, lending credibility to those who wanted a democratic solution.</p>
<p>The mutually destructive war had no clear end <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1988/12/23/the-peace-process-in-southern-africa/487c4938-fc72-49d4-8ec7-74328ea3ea47/">or military solution</a>. South Africa and opposing armies were also <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1988/12/23/the-peace-process-in-southern-africa/487c4938-fc72-49d4-8ec7-74328ea3ea47/">running out of money to keep fighting</a>. </p>
<p>This stalemate pushed <a href="https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/agreement-between-angola-cuba-and-south-africa-principles-peaceful-settlement-southwestern">Cuba, Angola and South Africa to a peace deal</a> in 1988, and South Africa withdrew its forces. </p>
<p>The war with Namibia continued, but not for long.</p>
<p>South African Prime Minister P.W. Botha <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/apartheid#:%7E:text=The%20effects%20of%20the%20internal%20unrest%20and%20international%20condemnation%20led,bring%20order%20to%20the%20country">resigned in 1989</a> after losing the support of his own far-right party for his failure in the war and inability to impose order. In 1990, <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/namibia-gains-independence">Namibia declared independence</a>.</p>
<p>That same year, the new South African government began rolling back apartheid policies, paving the way for <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-cbs-news-covered-nelson-mandelas-1994-presidential-victory/">historic elections</a> in 1994 that were won in a landslide by anti-apartheid leader Nelson Mandela.</p>
<p>South Africa’s involvement in its border war is different in many ways from Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. But there are also similarities that may offer guidance.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573572/original/file-20240205-15-s8uf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nelson Mandela wears a dark suit and dances alongside women, in front of a sign that has the words 'a better life.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573572/original/file-20240205-15-s8uf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573572/original/file-20240205-15-s8uf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573572/original/file-20240205-15-s8uf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573572/original/file-20240205-15-s8uf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573572/original/file-20240205-15-s8uf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573572/original/file-20240205-15-s8uf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573572/original/file-20240205-15-s8uf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nelson Mandela celebrates his win for president in Johannesburg, South Africa, in 1994.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-south-african-president-nelson-mandela-dances-at-a-news-photo/88312698?adppopup=true">Per-Anders Pettersson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A way toward two states?</h2>
<p>For more than half a century, Israel has controlled the borders of the West Bank and Gaza. Home to 5 million Palestinians, these areas exist in a kind of netherworld between being part of Israel and being separate, sovereign entities. Israel controls their territory, but Palestinians who live in the West Bank and Gaza cannot vote in Israel and do not have basic rights or freedom of movement.</p>
<p>It is a situation that many analysts have <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/06/27/no-horizon-in-perpetually-unsustainable-palestine-pub-52234">long understood</a> is unsustainable, as it has repeatedly given way to extreme fighting between Israelis and Palestinians. Yet with the U.S. and other powers <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/26/how-the-us-has-used-its-veto-power-at-the-un-in-support-of-israel">firmly backing</a> Israel as a strategic ally, few could see realistic possibilities for change.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/live-updates-death-toll-gaza-passes-27000-south-106861226">shocking scale</a> of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna136308#">violence in</a> the war is changing that. About 1,200 people were killed and 240 were kidnapped in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. In <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-02-05-2024-dd005061f9925525c56ea460ab5c9e77">Gaza, Israel’s war has killed more than 27,000 residents</a>, mostly civilians.</p>
<p>I think that this violence, along with the threat of a wider war breaking out, is upending the once-remote idea of significant change in the region.</p>
<p>Nearly the entire population of 2 million people in Gaza have been displaced from their homes and <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/over-one-hundred-days-war-israel-destroying-gazas-food-system-and-weaponizing-food-say-un-human-rights-experts#:%7E:text=Since%209%20October%2C%20Israel%20declared,insecure%20and%20more%20than%2080">face dire</a> <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/01/over-one-hundred-days-war-israel-destroying-gazas-food-system-and">humanitarian emergencies</a> due to food, water and power shortages, foreign aid blockages and the destruction of Gaza’s hospitals. </p>
<p>With Houthi militants in Yemen <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/20/world/middleeast/houthi-red-sea-shipping.html">entering</a> the conflict and threats from Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, the U.S. <a href="https://inkstickmedia.com/the-stark-implications-of-the-israel-gaza-war-for-the-united-states/">is wary</a> of being <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-is-getting-embroiled-in-yet-another-middle-east-conflict-it-should-increase-pressure-on-israel-instead-221222">pulled into</a> another war in the Middle East.</p>
<p>Pressure is growing internationally for a cease-fire – and a two-state solution. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/01/us/politics/biden-israel-palestinians-peace.html">U.S.</a>, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/four-day-truce-israel-hamas-conflict-is-important-first-step-eus-borrell-2023-11-27/">European Union</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/china-calls-concrete-roadmap-two-state-solution-solve-gaza-conflict-2023-11-30/">China</a> all voice support for a two-state solution, and <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/4443055-gaza-war-gives-new-urgency-to-us-push-for-israel-saudi-ties/">Saudi Arabia</a> has made the possibility of a historic accord with Israel contingent on it.</p>
<p>United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said that a two-state solution is the “<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/01/1146097">only path</a>” to peace.</p>
<p>Pressure is mounting in Israel as well, as people continue to protest for the Israeli government to make a deal and bring 130 <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hostage-hamas-gaza-captive-02b11a8ec897970589e580dee732d484">hostages still captive</a> home alive. </p>
<p>Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s approval ratings <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/only-15-israelis-want-netanyahu-keep-job-after-gaza-war-poll-finds-2024-01-02/">are tanking</a>. Israel’s economy is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/25/world/middleeast/israel-economy-gaza-war.html">shrinking</a>. And the Israeli government is <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/israeli-leaders-increasingly-divided-over-hamas-war-and-prospect-of-two-state-solution">increasingly divided</a> over the war effort, with Netanyahu <a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-782778">losing support</a> in his own far-right party.</p>
<p>There remain large <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-is-two-state-solution-israel-palestinian-conflict-2024-01-25/">obstacles</a> to realizing a two-state solution. There is also growing international consensus that a two-state solution is the only acceptable outcome of the current violence. </p>
<p>In my view, the conditions unfolding in Israel and Gaza are beginning to reach a breaking point, similar to the conditions in South Africa that formed prior to apartheid’s defeat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220524/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Case does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the conflict between Hamas and Israel is unique, the case of South Africa’s border war – and subsequent fall of apartheid – might offer lessons that apply to the Middle East.Benjamin Case, Postdoctoral research scholar at the Center for Work and Democracy, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225862024-02-05T22:32:00Z2024-02-05T22:32:00ZCutting UNRWA’s funding will have dire humanitarian consequences<p>Shortly after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) <a href="https://theconversation.com/ruling-by-uns-top-court-means-canada-and-the-u-s-could-be-complicit-in-gaza-genocide-222110">issued its ruling</a> in the case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/document-spells-allegations-12-employees-israel-participated-hamas-106757218">Israel accused</a> 12 members of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) of being involved in the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023. In response, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/26/middleeast/unrwa-fires-staff-members-october-7-attacks-intl/index.html">UNRWA said it fired staff</a> accused of involvement.</p>
<p>Israel demanded that donor countries cease all funding to UNRWA and claimed the organization is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-un-aid-refugees-29932f8d12c4fa748daa03e3689dc536">supporting Hamas</a>. Additionally, Israel called for the <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-to-seek-to-end-unrwa-gaza-activities-after-staffers-fired-for-oct-7-involvement/">cessation of UNRWA activities in Gaza after the war</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/news-releases/gaza-strip-humanitarian-crisis-deepens-time-funding-suspensions-put-unrwa-aid">Sixteen mostly western countries,</a> including Canada, the United States, United Kingdom and Australia, announced they were suspending their funding to UNRWA. </p>
<p>Western government officials <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/world/middleeast/gaza-unrwa-hamas-israel.html">said they have not been able to verify the allegations</a>. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/blinken-says-evidence-of-unrwa-staffers-oct-7-involvement-highly-highly-credible/">recently said</a>, “we haven’t had the ability to investigate [the allegations] ourselves. But they are highly, highly credible.” </p>
<p>While Canada <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canada-aid-gaza">pledged $40 million</a> for Palestinians in Gaza through alternative humanitarian channels, others like the U.S., U.K., Australia, Germany, Japan, Italy and Switzerland have completely suspended their aid, collectively representing over 60 per cent of UNRWA’s budget.</p>
<p>UNRWA has warned that unless funding is restored it may need to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/unrwa-could-shut-down-by-end-february-if-funding-does-not-resume-2024-02-01/">shut down by the end of February</a>. This decision may have serious consequences, not only for Palestine, but also Israel and the broader region.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1753109659739631762"}"></div></p>
<h2>What is UNRWA?</h2>
<p>UNRWA was established in 1949, and has been pivotal in providing humanitarian aid to Palestinian refugees since its inception. Following the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nakba-at-75-palestinians-struggle-to-get-recognition-for-their-catastrophe-204782/">Nakba (Catastrophe)</a> in 1948, the agency was formed to respond to the urgent needs of the displaced Palestinian population. </p>
<p>It currently supports over <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/1/what-is-unrwa-and-why-it-is-important-for-palestinians">six million Palestinians</a>, employing more than 30,000 staff members, with a significant portion dedicated to operations in Gaza. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.unrwa.org/what-mandate-unrwa-0">Operating under a mandate from the UN General Assembly</a>, UNRWA offers essential assistance and protection to Palestinian refugees across the Levant, including Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and Gaza. </p>
<p>UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently said “<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/01/1146067">UNRWA is the backbone of all humanitarian response in Gaza</a>,” while UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths said providing humanitarian assistance in the Occupied Palestinian Territories is “completely dependent on UNRWA being adequately funded and operational.”</p>
<hr>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/funding-for-refugees-has-long-been-politicized-punitive-action-against-unrwa-and-palestinians-fits-that-pattern-222263">Funding for refugees has long been politicized − punitive action against UNRWA and Palestinians fits that pattern</a>
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<h2>Israel’s accusations</h2>
<p>A recent article in the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-halts-funding-for-u-n-agency-amid-claims-staff-took-part-in-oct-7-attacks-3247918b"><em>Wall Street Journal</em></a> cited an Israeli “intelligence dossier” claiming 10 per cent of the <a href="https://www.ungeneva.org/en/news-media/news/2024/02/89970/gaza-aid-operations-peril-amid-funding-crisis">13,000 UNRWA employees in Gaza</a> have ties to armed groups. UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric has said <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2024/db240129.doc.htm">Israel has not yet shared the dossier with the United Nations</a>.</p>
<p>While these accusations are serious, maintaining an objective approach and refraining from drawing hasty conclusions about the <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/who-we-are/organizational-structure">UNRWA’s 30,000 employees</a> is crucial. The 12 employees accused of taking part in the Oct. 7 attack represent 0.04 per cent of the agency’s staff.</p>
<p>There are questions to be answered about the functioning of the UN agency, particularly regarding its recruitment and staff supervision processes. However, it would be misguided to generalize the conduct of one member or 12 to the entire organization. Particularly as the evidence Israel cites has not been made public.</p>
<h2>Funding cuts aren’t new</h2>
<p>Israel has long sought to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/1/31/israels-allegations-unrwa-effort-eliminate-agency">dismantle UNRWA</a> and the agency has faced the threat of funding cuts in the past. In 2018, former U.S. President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/31/trump-to-cut-all-us-funding-for-uns-main-palestinian-refugee-programme">cut funding</a> claiming it was an “irredeemably flawed operation.”</p>
<p>Trump’s proposed “<a href="https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/deal-of-the-century-what-is-it-and-why-now/">deal of the century</a>” was based on sidelining the Palestinians in a bid to push for normalization between Israel and Arab governments. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-so-called-mideast-peace-plan-dispossesses-palestinians-132182">Trump’s so-called Mideast 'peace plan' dispossesses Palestinians</a>
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<p>Normalization has sparked controversy in Palestine and the broader region, particularly when it comes to the question of Palestinian refugees. Under Trump’s proposals, UNRWA would be dissolved and Palestinian refugees would lose their international legal status, a measure that would be challenging the historical right of return of Palestinian refugees.</p>
<p>UN General Assembly <a href="https://fmep.org/resource/un-general-assembly-resolution-194/">Resolution 194</a>, passed in 1948, enshrines the right of Palestinian refugees to return home and receive compensation for losses suffered. UNRWA is an organization that recognizes the status of Palestinian refugees and, by extension, their right to return at some point.</p>
<p>Palestinians, determined not to compromise their historical rights, rejected Trump’s agreement in the face of <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/948322497602220032">political</a> and financial pressures.</p>
<p>It is also important to contextualize the allegations against UNRWA within Israel’s — and the United States’s — broader relationship with the UN. In 2019, both countries announced they were pulling out of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/u-s-and-israel-officially-withdraw-from-unesco">claiming it has an anti-Israel bias</a>.</p>
<p>In the months since Oct. 7, Israeli officials have <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/antonio-guterres-must-go-israel-want-un-chief-out/">called for the resignation</a> of the UN Secretary-General, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-says-israel-will-not-renew-visa-top-aid-official-2023-12-01/">denied UN staff visas</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/icj-decision-south-africa-israel-genocide-1.7095027">rejected the ICJ’s ruling</a>. </p>
<p>The humanitarian crisis in Gaza grows more dire by the day. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2024/jan/30/how-war-destroyed-gazas-neighbourhoods-visual-investigation">Vital infrastructure</a>, such as schools and hospitals, has been destroyed or severely damaged. </p>
<p>If UNRWA is unable to function, it could heighten political and social tensions in the region, especially in the countries hosting Palestinians, which will directly feel the repercussions of funding cuts. </p>
<p>It is imperative that foreign countries do not worsen the situation, but instead take steps to mitigate these negative repercussions and work towards finding humane, respectful and sustainable long-term solutions for the region.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emilie El Khoury receives funding for her postdoctoral research at Queen's University from Queen’s Research Opportunities Postdoctoral Fund.</span></em></p>Recent moves to cut UNRWA’s funding are not the first time the UN agency has come under threat.Emilie El Khoury, Postdoctoral fellow at Queen's University's Centre for International Policy and Defence (CIDP), Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209412024-02-05T22:24:10Z2024-02-05T22:24:10ZThe uncertain fate of patients needing life-saving dialysis treatment in Gaza<p>More than 100 days into the brutal assault on Gaza, over <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/02/1146157">27,000 Palestinians have been killed — of whom 60 per cent have been children and women</a> — and 66,000 injured, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).</p>
<p>The destruction of Gaza’s health-care system has been catastrophic. The <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/01/1145317#:%7E:text=Hundreds%20of%20facilities%20hit,seven%20deaths%20and%2052%20injuries.">WHO says</a> that, as of Jan. 5, there have been more than 600 attacks on health-care facilities, with 26 out of 36 hospitals in Gaza severely damaged and 79 ambulances targeted. Over <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.q203">300 health-care workers have been killed and over 200 have been detained by Israeli forces</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.msf.org/letter-gaza-un-security-council">In an open letter</a> to the United Nations Security Council, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) president Christos Christou wrote: </p>
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<p>“Israel has shown a blatant and total disregard for the protection of Gaza’s medical facilities. We are watching as hospitals are turned into morgues and ruins. These supposedly protected facilities are being bombed, are being shot at by tanks and guns, encircled and raided, killing patients and medical staff.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Most of the resources within the collapsing health-care system in Gaza are directed towards treating acute trauma victims, such as the injured <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/baby-saved-gaza-rubble-after-mother-killed-israeli-strike-2023-12-29/">babies pulled from rubble</a>, the toddlers requiring <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gazas-child-amputees-face-further-risks-without-expert-care-2024-01-04/">limb amputations</a> and the civilians suffering from <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/gaza-strip-msf-treating-patients-severe-burns-following-airstrike">severe burn injuries</a>. This leaves patients with chronic life-threatening diseases, such as cancer, heart failure and end-stage kidney disease, with severely limited access to the ongoing medical care they need to survive.</p>
<h2>Patients unable to access care for chronic conditions</h2>
<p>As nephrologists and internal medicine physicians, we are gravely concerned about patients in Gaza with chronic diseases who are unable to access care. There are more than <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/10/25/terrifying-hope-shrinks-for-gazas-dialysis-patients-at-packed-hospitals">1,100 dialysis patients, including 38 children, in Gaza</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://kidney.ca/Kidney-Health/Living-With-Kidney-Failure/Dialysis">Hemodialysis</a> is a treatment for patients with kidney failure that involves removing blood from the patient’s circulation and circulating it through a dialysis machine that clears toxins and removes excess fluid. Without adequate dialysis, fluid and toxins accumulate and patients typically die within days to weeks from respiratory failure or cardiac arrest. </p>
<p>Dialysis is a resource-intensive therapy that requires a dialysis facility, dialysis machines, filters, water supply and fuel, along with a team of technicians, nurses and nephrologists. Each one of these components has been severely and directly compromised since Israel’s assault on Gaza. </p>
<p>Israel’s complete blockade of food, fuel and water has left over <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/500000-people-gaza-face-catastrophic-hunger-unrwa/story?id=106593939">500,000 Gazans facing catastrophic hunger</a> according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), and Gazan children face a <a href="https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/barely-drop-drink-children-gaza-strip-do-not-access-90-cent-their-normal-water-use">90 per cent reduction in access to water</a>.</p>
<p>Several hospitals, including Al-Aqsa, reported being completely out of fuel, putting all patients in grave danger, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/13/blackout-in-gazas-al-aqsa-hospital-as-fuel-runs-out-babies-at-high-risk">particularly those on life support, babies in incubators and those requiring dialysis</a>. </p>
<p>Even before the current conflict, the 16-year blockade of Gaza put the lives of kidney failure patients at risk due to chronic shortages of fuel and medical supplies. Al Jazeera reports that since Oct. 7, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/10/25/terrifying-hope-shrinks-for-gazas-dialysis-patients-at-packed-hospitals">the number of patients at Al-Aqsa Hospital requiring dialysis has more than doubled</a> from 143 to about 300, including 11 children, who have just 24 dialysis machines between them. </p>
<p>This has forced dialysis units to significantly cut treatments, with patients receiving two-hour sessions rather than the typically prescribed 3.5-hour treatments. Treatment frequency, typically prescribed three times weekly, are now only available one or two times per week. </p>
<p>This decrease in treatment time and frequency is grossly insufficient to sustain life. But in a health-care system under assault, patients are fortunate to receive any dialysis at all. </p>
<h2>Patients needing life-saving treatment</h2>
<p>Ismail Al Tawil was a 44-year-old patient in Gaza who died of kidney failure after he was unable to access dialysis. In an interview with Al-Jazeera’s AJ+ social media arm, <a href="https://www.instagram.com/ajplus/reel/C15bdLAOVVi/">his widow described desperately trying to get him to dialysis at Al-Shifa hospital</a>, but being shot at by Israeli snipers who surrounded the hospital. </p>
<p>She then attempted to access dialysis at Al-Awda and Kamal Adwan hospitals, but both facilities had insufficient capacity to treat him. </p>
<p>Since Oct. 7, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/12/20/most-gazas-population-remains-displaced-and-harms-way">1.9 million people or 85 per cent of the population of Gaza have been internally displaced</a>, according to Human Rights Watch. This is a tremendous challenge for dialysis patients who are faced with the uncertainty of when, where or if they will access their life-saving therapy. </p>
<p>Anssam, age 12, was displaced from Jabaliya in northern Gaza to seek treatment in Deir El Balah in central Gaza. She had gone 15 days without dialysis and had to leave with her mother to receive life-saving medical treatment. <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/palestine-israel/2023/12/18/gaza-dialysis-patients-hospital/">In an interview with <em>The National News</em></a>, Anssam said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I hope for this war to end and for us to go back to the way we were, happy and playing, and to go back to doing dialysis three times a week… Now, without filters, I cannot have dialysis and so I will die. My life depends on dialysis.” </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Loss of medical personnel</h2>
<p>Beyond the destruction of health-care facilities and a critical shortage of supplies, the loss of medical personnel may have the most devastating and longest-lasting impact on the health-care system in Gaza. </p>
<p>Dr. Hammam Alloh was one of the only nephrologists in Gaza, <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2023/11/13/medical_workers_killed_colleagues_mourn_hammam">described as a committed physician and a beacon of light by his colleagues</a>. He was 36 years old and a father of two young children. He had hopes to expand dialysis care in Gaza and build a nephrology educational training program.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/gaza-hamman-alloh-killed-1.7027623">He was killed on Nov. 12</a> by an <a href="https://www.frontlinedefenders.org/en/profile/hammam-alloh">Israeli airstrike to his family’s home</a>, where he was taking a short rest after a busy shift at Al Shifa Hospital. His loss resonated far beyond his family, patients and colleagues in Gaza. Dr. Alloh’s <a href="https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/11/19/714879/humans-of-gaza-hammam-alloh-nephrologist-alshifa-hospital">courage and dedication has become a powerful source of inspiration</a> for physicians and health-care workers around the world. </p>
<p>Multiple sources have reported the number of civilians who have been killed by the bombs and bullets during the assault on Gaza. We may never know how many cancer patients will die from lack of chemotherapy; or diabetics from lack of insulin; or kidney failure patients from inadequate dialysis. The consequences of the collapsed health-care system in Gaza will be felt for years to come. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/chilling-effect-pro-palestinian-1.7064510">attempts to silence, intimidate and smear health-care workers</a> for calling out the atrocities in Gaza have been well documented. These efforts not only attempt to rob us of our freedom of speech, but of our professional and moral duty as physicians to promote global health and protect the vulnerable. </p>
<p>As physicians, we will not be silent as our colleagues in Gaza are being killed, as hospitals are being targeted and attacked, and as vulnerable patients are endangered. We <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/01/1145462">join the UN</a>, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02627-2">WHO</a>, <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.ca/msf-immediate-ceasefire-is-needed-in-gaza-to-stop-the-bloodshed/">MSF</a> and the <a href="https://www.bma.org.uk/what-we-do/working-internationally/our-international-work/bma-position-israel-gaza-conflict">British Medical Association</a>, along with millions around the world, who call for an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid. </p>
<p>We stand in solidarity with the true health-care heroes of Gaza who continue to work in harrowing conditions, and we honour the legacies of those like Dr. Alloh who lost their lives while upholding the highest values of our profession.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Patients with kidney failure need regular dialysis treatments to survive. However, the equipment, supplies and medical staff needed for dialysis have been largely destroyed by the assault on Gaza.Ali Iqbal, Transplant Nephrologist, Assistant Professor of Medicine, McMaster UniversityAliya Khan, Clinical professor, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster UniversityBen Thomson, Masters of Public Health student, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225382024-02-05T16:09:12Z2024-02-05T16:09:12ZUK and US may recognise state of Palestine after Gaza war – what this important step would mean<p>The US and UK governments have indicated they are considering recognising Palestine as a state after the current conflict ends. On a visit to Lebanon on February 1, the UK foreign secretary, David Cameron, said this would be impossible while Hamas remained in control in Gaza, but that <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-could-recognize-palestinian-state-before-any-deal-with-israel-says-david-cameron/#">giving Palestinians the prospect of statehood</a> would be “absolutely vital for the long-term peace and security of the region”.</p>
<p>US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, meanwhile <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/palestine-statehood-biden-israel-gaza-war">told US media site Axios</a> that he had commissioned the State Department to review potential options for US and international recognition of a Palestinian state. Previously, US policy towards Palestinian statehood had been that this was a matter for negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. </p>
<p>International recognition would usher in a new phase for the realisation of Palestinian statehood. The legal framework for addressing the situation would expand to include more international bodies dealing with international human rights and accountability.</p>
<p>The first thing to stress is that recognition and statehood are two separate issues. Under international law, states conduct foreign relations on the basis of bilateral and multilateral recognition of each other’s statehood as sovereign countries. This recognition also forms the basis for how states behave and imposes various legally binding obligations and duties under international conventions.</p>
<p>Palestine has been recognised as an independent state by <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2022-0039/">139 of 193 UN members</a>. But, crucially, the US, UK and other G7 countries including Germany, Italy and France, have not. </p>
<p>Since 2012, Palestine has been a <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2012/ga11317.doc.htm">“non-member observer state”</a> in the UN. It acceded to a number of <a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-196396/#">human rights treaties in 2014</a>. These include the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) and the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW). </p>
<p>Palestine’s membership of these treaties is a reflection of its status as a sovereign state in international law, with all the obligations and duties this entails. </p>
<p>Palestine is also a member of a range of other international organisations, including the <a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/document-source/non-aligned-movement-namsee-also-committee-on-palestine/">Non-Aligned Movement</a>, the <a href="https://www.oic-oci.org/home/?lan=en">Organisation of Islamic Cooperation</a> and the <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/victims/state-palestine">International Criminal Court</a> (ICC).</p>
<h2>Getting recognised</h2>
<p>There is a detailed and complex process by which new states are recognised under international law, established in 1933 by the <a href="https://www.ilsa.org/Jessup/Jessup15/Montevideo%20Convention.pdf">Montevideo convention on the rights and duties of states</a>. Article 1 contains the four criteria required as follows:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The state as a person of international law should possess the following qualifications: (a) a permanent population; (b) a defined territory; (c) government; and (d) capacity to enter into relations with the other states. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The question remains whether Palestine actually possesses a “defined territory” and “effective government”. </p>
<p>The UK has maintained a firm position of non-recognition of Palestinian statehood. It abstained in the UN general assembly vote in 2012 that granted the non-member observer status at the UN. So recognition would be a significant move. </p>
<p>But recognition of Palestine as a sovereign state goes beyond a mere political gesture. It has the potential to unlock a broader range of legal avenues towards accountability for atrocities and human rights violations, grounded in the obligations of states under the laws governing international armed conflicts. </p>
<p>At present, the continuing hostilities in Gaza are perceived as a conflict between a state (Israel) and a non-state group (Hamas). Recognising Palestine as an independent state could significantly alter this dynamic. It would change the situation to an <a href="https://casebook.icrc.org/a_to_z/glossary/international-armed-conflict">international armed conflict</a> which involves one or more states taking up arms against another. </p>
<h2>Establishing accountability</h2>
<p>Palestine has been a member of the ICC since it <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/state-palestine-accedes-rome-statute">acceded to the Rome statute</a> in 2015. In 2021, the ICC prosecutor initiated investigations into the “<a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-fatou-bensouda-respecting-investigation-situation-palestine">situation in the state of Palestine</a>”. </p>
<p>This followed a pre-trial chamber decision that the court could exercise criminal jurisdiction in the situation (the term “situation” is used by the ICC to mean the jurisdictional confines within which an investigation is done). In respect to the territorial scope of this jurisdiction and investigation, it extends to Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.</p>
<p>On November 17 2023, the ICC chief prosecutor <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-prosecutor-international-criminal-court-karim-aa-khan-kc-situation-state-palestine">received a state party referral</a> for Palestine from South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Comoros, and Djibouti, meaning they requested the ICC prosecutor investigate crimes in Palestine under the Rome statute.</p>
<h2>Palestine’s obligations</h2>
<p>Recognition as a state would involve certain obligations on the part of Palestine, both in terms of international law and human rights. States have concrete obligations and duties under international law in relation to how they deal with armed conflicts. They are also obliged to act according to international law in recognising and protecting human rights in the territory under their jurisdiction.</p>
<p>One example of this idea in action was the <a href="https://www.ejiltalk.org/contested-statehood-and-jurisdiction-palestine-and-the-mangisto-and-al-sayed-case/">2023 decision</a> in the matter of Mangisto and al-Sayed v the State of Palestine, which involved the disappearance of two Israeli nationals in Gaza. The ruling was made by the UN’s Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, because the two Israelis who had disappeared were both ruled to have psychosocial disabilities which had influenced their decision to cross into Gaza – despite the dangers that involved – where they disappeared. </p>
<p>Even though there was no Palestinian government with effective control over Gaza and West Bank, the legal entity of the state of Palestine had a legal obligation to respect and protect the rights of the people as enshrined under the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/convention-rights-persons-disabilities">Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities</a>. </p>
<p>So, recognising Palestine as a state is more than just a political gesture. It has legal implications which will also be important when it comes to negotiating peace, the future of the Palestinian people and accountability for war crimes by both sides.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222538/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tonny Raymond Kirabira does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Much of the world already recognises Palestinian statehood. But recognition by the US and UK would be a hugely important decision.Tonny Raymond Kirabira, Lecturer in Law, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194372024-02-02T16:25:23Z2024-02-02T16:25:23ZHow the Universal Declaration of Human Rights can guide governments through the turmoil of 2024<p>In a landscape of seemingly increasing global crises, the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-human-rights">Universal Declaration of Human Rights</a> (UDHR) celebrated its <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/get-involved/campaign/udhr-75">75th anniversary</a> in December 2023.</p>
<p>With the horrors of the second world war a recent memory, the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt3fhrpm">UDHR was created</a> as a set of international standards offering more protection for people in times of difficulty, and in the hope that “atrocities like those of <a href="https://www.un.org/en/about-us/udhr/history-of-the-declaration%22">that conflict [would never] happen again</a>”. </p>
<p>However, 75 years on, the world is facing major human rights challenges again. Human rights violations are being regularly reported in conflicts, most recently in Ukraine and Gaza. For instance, in Ukraine, summary executions, torture, sexual violence and enforced disappearances are among the issues that have been <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/sessions-regular/session55/advance-versions/a-hrc-55-crp-2-en.pdf">noted by the UN</a>. In Gaza, the <a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/document/unlawful-killings-in-gaza-city-ohchr-press-release/">UN has commented</a> on unlawful killings of civilians.</p>
<p>Human rights barrister Baroness Helena Kennedy is co-chairing a high level group looking at <a href="https://www.ibanet.org/Ukraine-IBAHRI-Director-Baroness-Helena-Kennedy-to-co-chair-task-force-on-deported-children">enforced disappearances of Ukrainian children</a> by Russian occupying forces, a mechanism for them to be returned, as well as a new international legal basis for the protection of children’s rights in armed conflict.</p>
<p>Commenting on this work, Baroness Kennedy said: “The requirement to establish a mechanism in line with international human rights standards is clear, as is the necessity for collaboration at [the] international level among legal experts, organisations – including the United Nations – and states, which must better enforce existing UN mechanisms on the protection of children in conflict.”</p>
<p>In this context, it is apt to consider more of what the UDHR is, how states have engaged with it across history, and the hurdles that it faces in 2024.</p>
<h2>What is the UDHR?</h2>
<p>Adopted by the UN general assembly on <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/617875?ln=en">December 10 1948</a> in a vote of 48 in favour and 8 abstaining, the UDHR outlines a range of human rights that states agreed were to be universally protected.</p>
<p>These include the right to life, the right to be free from slavery, the right to an adequate standard of living, and the right to education, <a href="https://brill.com/edcollbook/title/10598">to name a few</a>. While not legally binding, the document aims to provide a “common standard of achievement for all peoples and all nations”. It has proved significant in the intervening decades, laying down provisions that have informed the binding international human rights treaties, subsequently enacted by the UN.</p>
<p>Following the UDHR’s adoption, in 1950 the general assembly invited all of its then 60 member states and wider interested organisations to mark December 10 annually as <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/210559?ln=en">Human Rights Day</a>. Celebration of Human Rights Day has taken place ever since across the world.</p>
<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/hrlr/article/23/2/ngad003/7083766">Research reveals</a> that on these anniversaries the document was used by states to discuss and support legally binding rights such as <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/760745?ln=en">freedom from torture</a>, the <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/178944?ln=en">rights of women and children</a> and <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/750122?ln=en">protection from discrimination</a>, coinciding with the drafting of new legal documents on these topics.</p>
<p>When wider discussions started to happen around <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/731905?ln=en">decolonisation in the 1950s and 60s</a>, <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/664255?ln=en">cold war tensions and détente in the 1970s-80s</a>, and the challenges of <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/265727?ln=en">technological change</a> from the 1990s onwards, the UDHR was used as a reference point to map human rights and discuss where they needed to develop further. This was also the case for <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/508283?ln=en">global security</a> as well as <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/763289?ln=en">environmental and financial crises</a> in the 1990s and 2000s. </p>
<p>During these times, the UDHR offered guidance and a vehicle for analysis. One example is the human rights implications of the cold war arms race. The UDHR both signalled towards the need for commitment to peace – as <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/60804/a-world-made-new-by-mary-ann-glendon/">Eleanor Roosevelt</a>, who chaired the drafting committee, <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/617875?ln=en">commented during its adoption</a>, “the declaration was inspired by a sincere desire for peace” – as well as highlighted where states were placing human rights under threat through nuclear policies.</p>
<p>Over the years, the UDHR has been consistently referred to as a steadfast cornerstone of human rights internationally. It has been likened to <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/749885?ln=en">“a code of life for our modern world”</a>, the <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/54977?ln=en">“20th-century Magna Carta”</a> and an “international yardstick with which governments can measure progress <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/265555?ln=en">in the field of human rights”</a>. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, continuing effort has been necessary to <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/nyls24&div=10&id=&page=">implement the rights</a> that the UDHR protects. In 1973, the UN secretary-general, Kurt Waldheim, <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/749885?ln=en">reflected on this</a>, stating: “It is well that we remind ourselves of the realism, as well as the idealism, of those who created that great Declaration … it would be wrong to say that the fundamental freedoms set out in the Declaration have been universally achieved.”</p>
<h2>The UDHR today</h2>
<p>As in earlier decades in times of emergency, conflict and global change, states do not always fully implement the rights contained in the UDHR. Examples recently highlighted by the UN include the the right to participate in <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/elections">elections</a>, effective <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/topic/administration-justice-and-law-enforcement">administration of justice and law enforcement</a>, and the right to an adequate standard of living, such as access to <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/topic/water-and-sanitation">water and sanitation</a>.</p>
<p>The UDHR’s recognition and protection of the “the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family”, as outlined in its preamble, is still highly relevant, especially because of the contemporary crises facing human rights.</p>
<p>The fundamental protections outlined in this document, adopted in 1948, still have an enduring and guiding role, although significant challenges to these protections remain. They require the ongoing attention of the international community.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219437/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn McNeilly has received funding from the Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p>Seventy five years after the creation of the UDHR, the world is facing major human rights challenges again.Kathryn McNeilly, Professor of Law, School of Law, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225112024-02-02T11:04:44Z2024-02-02T11:04:44ZGovernments spend US$22 billion a year helping the fishing industry empty our oceans. This injustice must end<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572830/original/file-20240201-27-sdoziy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C0%2C1370%2C770&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/drone-view-of-fishing-trawler-on-sea-5829126/">Pok Rie/Pexel</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Overfishing has dire consequences for ocean health and for the millions of people who depend on fish for food and wellbeing. Globally, catch has been steadily <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10244">declining</a> since the 1990s. It’s a trend that’s likely to continue if we fail to act now.</p>
<p>Nearly all governments, including Australia’s, subsidise their fishing industries. Financial support comes in many forms, from taxpayer-funded fuel to reduced boat-building costs. These subsidies are harmful because they encourage overfishing. Some of the most environmentally damaging and least efficient fishing activities, such as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X09001663">bottom trawling</a> and <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.aat2504">distant water fishing</a>, would become unprofitable and cease without government <a href="https://archives.nereusprogram.org/ask-an-expert-why-is-the-global-fishing-industry-given-35-billion-in-subsidies-each-year/">subsidies</a>. </p>
<p>Scientists worldwide are rallying for stringent regulations to eliminate harmful fisheries subsidies, which totalled a whopping <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X19303677">US$22 billion</a> in 2018. Safeguarding the ocean will strengthen food security and allow more equitable distribution of marine resources.</p>
<p>Trade ministers from around the world are set to convene later this month in Abu Dhabi at a key meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO). In an <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44183-024-00042-0">open letter</a> published today, we are among 36 marine experts calling on the WTO to adopt ambitious regulations promoting fisheries sustainability and equity, and to eliminate harmful fisheries subsidies.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-an-end-to-billions-in-fishing-subsidies-could-improve-fish-stocks-and-ocean-health-163470">Putting an end to billions in fishing subsidies could improve fish stocks and ocean health</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<h2>A long-awaited agreement</h2>
<p>International pressure from scientists helped to broker an earlier agreement on fishing subsidies, which is yet to be ratified. </p>
<p>In October 2021, 300 experts published an <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm1680">article in Nature</a> calling for an end to harmful subsidies in the fishing sector. </p>
<p>After decades of fruitless negotiations, the WTO finally reached an <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/rulesneg_e/fish_e/fish_factsheet_e.pdf">agreement on fisheries subsidies</a> in June 2022. </p>
<p>Once ratified by two-thirds of WTO members, this agreement will partially address the United Nations <a href="https://indicators.report/targets/14-6/">Sustainable Development Goal Target 14.6</a> to eliminate harmful subsidies.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572831/original/file-20240201-17-tiyvdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a suit brings down the gavel after agreement was reached on fisheries subsidies at the WTO meeting in 2022." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572831/original/file-20240201-17-tiyvdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572831/original/file-20240201-17-tiyvdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572831/original/file-20240201-17-tiyvdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572831/original/file-20240201-17-tiyvdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572831/original/file-20240201-17-tiyvdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572831/original/file-20240201-17-tiyvdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572831/original/file-20240201-17-tiyvdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The gavel goes down after members reached an agreement on fisheries subsidies, Geneva, 17 June 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/mc12_e/photos_e.htm">WTO/Jay Louvion</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unfortunately, while this agreement is historic, it is narrow. It only prohibits member governments from financing illegal fishing activities and the exploitation of already overfished stocks. But it’s obvious illegal fishing should be banned and the focus on overfished stocks is too little, too late. </p>
<p>Experts argue the agreement fails to specifically address harmful subsidies across global fisheries and as such only affects a <a href="https://oceana.org/blog/the-wto-agreement-saves-face-but-does-it-save-fish/">trivial component</a> of subsidy-driven exploitation. The subsidies that reduce operating costs and increase fishing capacity, allowing vessels to travel further and remain at sea longer, remain in place. </p>
<h2>Fisheries subsidies affect more than just fish</h2>
<p>Scientists have been <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00451-1">sounding the alarm</a> for decades. Many published studies document the <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0020239">destabilising effects</a> of fisheries subsidies on ecosystems. In addition to impacting biodiversity and ecosystems, subsidies also increase the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800921001154">CO₂ emissions</a> that contribute to climate change.</p>
<p>More recently, studies have also applied a social perspective to this issue. Seafood lifts millions of people out of hunger, malnutrition and poverty. Yet more people will lose a secure <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/534317a">source of food and nutrients</a> if fish stocks continue to decline due to industrial overfishing. </p>
<p>Research shedding light on the concept of “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X20302529">equity</a>” shows subsidies don’t just harm the ocean, they also affect human <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/5-ways-harmful-fisheries-subsidies-impact-coastal-communities">communities</a>. These communities are largely in developing countries which are rarely the source of harmful fisheries subsidies. Rather, their waters are exploited by <a href="https://oceana.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/OceanaDWF_FinalReport.pdf">foreign vessels</a> supported by wealthy governments’ fisheries subsidies.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572832/original/file-20240201-25-bknp4o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Person wearing gloves, bending down to handle drying squid on a fish net" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572832/original/file-20240201-25-bknp4o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572832/original/file-20240201-25-bknp4o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572832/original/file-20240201-25-bknp4o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572832/original/file-20240201-25-bknp4o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572832/original/file-20240201-25-bknp4o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572832/original/file-20240201-25-bknp4o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572832/original/file-20240201-25-bknp4o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fisheries contribute to livelihoods and food security of millions of people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/person-drying-squid-on-fishnet-13243896/">Jimmy Liao/Pexel</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fisheries subsidies foster unfair competition not only among countries but also between industrial and community led fishing fleets. In the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44183-023-00031-9">Indian Ocean</a>, the level of subsidies provided to industrial fisheries corresponds to the amount of seafood exported to international markets, largely supplying rich and food-secure countries. This shows governments are deliberately empowering their industrial fleets to fish for seafood largely exported and consumed elsewhere, instead of sustaining fisheries providing food for locals. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fisheries-subsidies-fuel-ocean-depletion-and-hurt-coastal-communities-142260">Fisheries subsidies fuel ocean depletion and hurt coastal communities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The good, the bad and the ugly</h2>
<p>While most nations contribute to harmful subsidies, <a href="https://oceana.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/994812/Oceana_Summary6-22.pdf">ten nations</a> are responsible for 70% of this unsustainable financing. Chief among them are China, Japan and the European Union, reflecting the significant size of their distant water fishing fleets that typically access the resources of less-developed nations.</p>
<p>In contrast, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X19303677?via%3Dihub">Australia</a> contributes only 0.1% of global harmful subsidies. Only 6% of Australia’s annual US$400 million in fisheries subsidies is considered harmful. While Australia should give attention to its ongoing annual taxpayer contribution of US$25 million to the fishing sector, it is well placed to demonstrate global leadership on how fishing can deliver sustainable and equitable outcomes without harmful subsidies.</p>
<h2>An essential opportunity</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/mc13_e/mc13_e.htm">second wave</a> of negotiations on fisheries subsidies is expected during the WTO Ministerial Conference this February in Abu Dhabi. This conference represents an invaluable opportunity to better protect the ocean. </p>
<p>In anticipation of this meeting, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44183-024-00042-0">we are urging nations</a> to adopt more ambitious regulations that eliminate harmful subsidies, prioritising fisheries sustainability and ocean equity. </p>
<p>Harmful fisheries subsidies are not only unsustainable but profoundly unfair. Based on the extensive body of evidence, the WTO should agree to eliminate harmful subsidies once and for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222511/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vania Andreoli received funding for her PhD research from the Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship and The Jock Clough Marine Foundation through the Oceans Institute Robson and Robertson Award. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dirk Zeller supervises Vania Andreoli’s PhD, so his lab has indirectly received funding for this doctoral research from the Australian Government and the Jock Clough Marine Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Meeuwig supervises Vania Andreoli's PhD so her lab has indirectly received funding for this doctoral research from the Australian Government and the Jock Clough Marine Foundation. </span></em></p>Governments all over the world are propping up overfishing. Now scientists have penned an open letter calling on trade ministers to implement stricter regulations against harmful fisheries subsidies.Vania Andreoli, PhD Candidate, The University of Western AustraliaDirk Zeller, Professor & Director, Sea Around Us - Indian Ocean, The University of Western AustraliaJessica Meeuwig, Wen Family Chair in Conservation, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222632024-02-01T13:40:51Z2024-02-01T13:40:51ZFunding for refugees has long been politicized − punitive action against UNRWA and Palestinians fits that pattern<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572695/original/file-20240201-17-5uj2y7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C197%2C4078%2C2546&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Palestinians await the distribution of UNRWA flour.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/palestinians-who-left-their-homes-and-took-refuge-in-rafah-news-photo/1899261787?adppopup=true">Abed Zagout/Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At least a dozen countries, including the U.S., have <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/01/1145987">suspended funding to the UNRWA</a>, the United Nations agency responsible for delivering aid to Palestinian refugees.</p>
<p>This follows allegations made by Israel that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/at-least-12-u-n-agency-employees-involved-in-oct-7-attacks-intelligence-reports-say-a7de8f36">12 UNRWA employees participated</a> in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack. The UNRWA responded by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-palestinian-refugee-agency-investigates-staff-suspected-role-israel-attacks-2024-01-26/">dismissing all accused employees</a> and opening an investigation. </p>
<p>While the seriousness of the accusations is clear to all, and the U.S. has been keen to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/us/politics/aid-gaza-israel.html">downplay the significance</a> of its pause in funding, the action is not in keeping with precedent.</p>
<p>Western donors did not, for example, defund other U.N. agencies or peacekeeping operations amid accusations of <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/01/11/un-peacekeeping-has-sexual-abuse-problem">sexual assault</a>, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-un-general-assembly-president-and-five-others-charged-13-million-bribery-scheme">corruption</a> or <a href="https://www.hrw.org/legacy/summaries/s.bosnia9510.html">complicity in war crimes</a>.</p>
<p>In real terms, the funding cuts to the UNRWA will affect <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/where-we-work/gaza-strip">1.7 million Palestinian refugees in Gaza</a> along with an additional 400,000 Palestinians without refugee status, many of whom benefit from the UNRWA’s infrastructure. Some critics have gone further and said depriving the agency of funds <a href="https://jacobin.com/2024/01/unrwa-defunding-gaza-israel">amounts to collective punishment</a> against Palestinians.</p>
<p>Refugee aid, and humanitarian aid more generally, is theoretically meant to be neutral and impartial. But as experts in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/reluctant-reception/558E2A93FF99B8F295347A8FA2053698">migration</a> <a href="https://www.routledge.com/UN-Global-Compacts-Governing-Migrants-and-Refugees/Micinski/p/book/9780367218836">and</a> <a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/D/Delegating-Responsibility">international relations</a>, we know funding is often used as a foreign policy tool, whereby allies are rewarded and enemies punished. In this context, we believe the cuts in funding for the UNRWA fit a wider pattern of the politicization of aid to refugees, particularly Palestinian refugees.</p>
<h2>What is the UNRWA?</h2>
<p>The UNRWA, short for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, was established two years after about <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nakba-at-75-palestinians-struggle-to-get-recognition-for-their-catastrophe-204782">750,000 Palestinians were expelled or fled from their homes</a> during the months leading up to the creation of the state of Israel in 1948 and the subsequent Arab-Israeli war.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man carrying luggage wades through water while another lifts an elderly man on his shoulders." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572692/original/file-20240201-15-47521c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572692/original/file-20240201-15-47521c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572692/original/file-20240201-15-47521c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572692/original/file-20240201-15-47521c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572692/original/file-20240201-15-47521c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572692/original/file-20240201-15-47521c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572692/original/file-20240201-15-47521c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palestinians flee their homes during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-1948-palestinian-exodus-known-in-arabic-as-the-nakba-news-photo/1354487454?adppopup=true">Pictures from History/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Prior to the UNRWA’s creation, international and local organizations, many of them religious, provided services to displaced Palestinians. But after <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/refuge-and-resistance/9780231202855">surveying the extreme poverty</a> and dire situation pervasive across refugee camps, the U.N. General Assembly, including all Arab states and Israel, voted to create the UNRWA in 1949. </p>
<p>Since that time, <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/what-we-do">the UNRWA has been the primary aid organization</a> providing food, medical care, schooling and, in some cases, housing for the 6 million Palestinians living across its five fields: Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, as well as the areas that make up the occupied Palestinian territories: the West Bank and Gaza Strip. </p>
<p>The mass displacement of Palestinians – known as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nakba-at-75-palestinians-struggle-to-get-recognition-for-their-catastrophe-204782">Nakba, or “catastrophe</a>” – occurred prior to the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/about-unhcr/who-we-are/1951-refugee-convention">1951 Refugee Convention</a>, which defined refugees as anyone with a well-founded fear of persecution owing to “events occurring in Europe before 1 January 1951.” Despite a <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/4ec262df9.pdf">1967 protocol extending the definition</a> worldwide, Palestinians are still excluded from the primary international system protecting refugees.</p>
<p>While the UNRWA is responsible for providing services to Palestinian refugees, the United Nations also created the U.N. Conciliation Commission for Palestine in 1948 to seek a <a href="https://www.refworld.org/docid/4fe2e5672.html">long-term political solution</a> and “to facilitate the repatriation, resettlement and economic and social rehabilitation of the refugees and the payment of compensation.”</p>
<p>As a result, the UNRWA does not have a mandate to push for the traditional durable solutions available in other refugee situations. As it happened, the conciliation commission was active only for a few years and has since been sidelined in favor of the U.S.-brokered peace processes.</p>
<h2>Is the UNRWA political?</h2>
<p>The UNRWA has been <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/palestinian-refugees-dispossession">subject</a> to political headwinds since its inception and especially during periods of heightened tension between Palestinians and Israelis.</p>
<p>While it is a U.N. organization and thus ostensibly apolitical, it has <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/refuge-and-resistance/9780231202855">frequently been criticized</a> by Palestinians, Israelis as well as donor countries, including the United States, for acting politically.</p>
<p>The UNRWA performs statelike functions across its five fields – including education, health and infrastructure – but it is restricted in its mandate from performing political or security activities.</p>
<p>Initial Palestinian objections to the UNRWA stemmed from the organization’s early focus on economic integration of refugees into host states.</p>
<p>Although the UNRWA officially adhered to the U.N. General Assembly’s <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/content/resolution-194">Resolution 194</a> that called for the return of Palestine refugees to their homes, U.N., U.K. and U.S. <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/refuge-and-resistance/9780231202855">officials searched</a> for means by which to resettle and integrate Palestinians into host states, viewing this as the favorable political solution to the Palestinian refugee situation and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In this sense, Palestinians perceived the UNRWA to be both highly political and actively working against their interests.</p>
<p>In later decades, the UNRWA <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/refuge-and-resistance/9780231202855">switched its primary focus</a> from jobs to education at the urging of Palestinian refugees. But the UNRWA’s education materials were <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/refuge-and-resistance/9780231202855">viewed</a> by Israel as further feeding Palestinian militancy, and the Israeli government insisted on checking and approving all materials in Gaza and the West Bank, which it has occupied since 1967. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman holds a poster stating'Don't Defund UNRWA'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572697/original/file-20240201-17-qxb5zr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572697/original/file-20240201-17-qxb5zr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572697/original/file-20240201-17-qxb5zr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572697/original/file-20240201-17-qxb5zr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572697/original/file-20240201-17-qxb5zr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572697/original/file-20240201-17-qxb5zr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572697/original/file-20240201-17-qxb5zr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A protester is removed by members of the U.S. Capitol Police during a House hearing on Jan. 30, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/protester-leslie-angeline-of-codepink-is-removed-by-members-news-photo/1973436909?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While Israel has <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/refuge-and-resistance/9780231202855">long been suspicious</a> of the UNRWA’s role in refugee camps and in providing education, the organization’s operation, which is internationally funded, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/israelpalestine/242-unrwas-reckoning-preserving-un-agency-serving-palestinian-refugees">also saves</a> Israel millions of dollars each year in services it would be obliged to deliver as the occupying power.</p>
<p>Since the 1960s, the U.S. – UNRWA’s primary donor – and other Western countries have <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/refuge-and-resistance/9780231202855">repeatedly expressed their desire</a> to use aid to prevent radicalization among refugees.</p>
<p>In response to the increased presence of armed opposition groups, the <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/refuge-and-resistance/9780231202855">U.S. attached a provision</a> to its UNRWA aid in 1970, requiring that the “UNRWA take all possible measures to assure that no part of the United States contribution shall be used to furnish assistance to any refugee who is receiving military training as a member of the so-called Palestine Liberation Army (PLA) or any other guerrilla-type organization.”</p>
<p>The UNRWA adheres to this requirement, even publishing an annual list of its employees so that host governments can vet them, but it also <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/israelpalestine/242-unrwas-reckoning-preserving-un-agency-serving-palestinian-refugees">employs 30,000 individuals</a>, the vast majority of whom are Palestinian.</p>
<p>Questions over the links of the UNRWA to any militancy has led to the rise of Israeli and international <a href="https://cufi.org/issue/unrwa-teachers-continue-to-support-antisemitism-terrorism-on-social-media-un-watch/">watch groups</a> that document the social media activity of the organization’s large Palestinian staff.</p>
<h2>Repeated cuts in funding</h2>
<p>The United States has used its money and power within the U.N. to block criticism of Israel, vetoing at least <a href="https://www.un.org/depts/dhl/resguide/scact_veto_table_en.htm">45 U.N. resolutions</a> critical of Israel.</p>
<p>And the latest freeze is not the first time the U.S. has cut funding to the UNRWA or other U.N. agencies in response to issues pertaining to the status of Palestinians.</p>
<p>In 2011, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE79U5ED/#:%7E:text=WASHINGTON%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20The%20United,grant%20the%20Palestinians%20full%20membership.">U.S. cut all funding to UNESCO</a>, the U.N. agency that provides educational and cultural programs around the world, after the agency voted to admit the state of Palestine as a full member.</p>
<p>The Obama administration defended the move, claiming it was required by a 1990s law to defund any U.N. body that admitted Palestine as a full member. </p>
<p>But the impact of the action was nonetheless severe. Within just four years, UNESCO was <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1758-5899.12459">forced to cut its staff in half</a> and roll back its operations. President Donald Trump later <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/u-s-and-israel-officially-withdraw-from-unesco">withdrew the U.S. completely from UNESCO</a>.</p>
<p>In 2018, the Trump administration paused its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/31/us/politics/trump-unrwa-palestinians.html">US$60 million contribution to the UNRWA</a>. Trump claimed the pause would create political pressure for Palestinians to negotiate. President Joe Biden restarted U.S. contributions to the UNRWA in 2021.</p>
<h2>Politicization of refugee aid</h2>
<p>Palestinian are not the only group to suffer from the politicization of refugee funding.</p>
<p>After World War II, states established different international organizations to help refugees but strategically excluded some groups from the refugee definition. For example, the U.S. funded the <a href="https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/last-million-eastern-european-displaced-persons-postwar-germany">U.N. Relief and Rehabilitation Administration to help resettle displaced persons after World War II</a> but resisted Soviet pressure to forcibly repatriate Soviet citizens. </p>
<p>The U.S. also created a separate organization, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ijrl/article-abstract/1/4/501/1598187">the precursor to the International Organization for Migration</a>, to circumvent Soviet influence. In many ways, the UNRWA’s existence and the exclusion of Palestinian refugees from the wider refugee regime parallels this dynamic.</p>
<p>Funding for refugees has also been politicized through the earmarking of voluntary contributions to U.N. agencies. Some agencies receive funding from U.N. dues; but the UNRWA, alongside the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Organization for Migration, receive the majority of their funding from voluntary contributions from member states.</p>
<p>These contributions can be earmarked for specific activities or locations, leading to donors such as the <a href="https://www.peio.me/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/PEIO12_paper_107.pdf">U.S. or European Union dictating which refugees get aid and which do not</a>. Earmarked contributions amounted to nearly <a href="https://unsceb.org/fs-revenue-agency">96% of the UNHCR’s budget, 96% of the IOM’s budget and 74% of UNRWA funding in 2022</a>.</p>
<p>As a result, any cuts to UNRWA funding will affect its ability to service Palestinian refugees in Gaza – especially at a time when so many are <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/30/middleeast/famine-looms-in-gaza-israel-war-intl/index.html">facing hunger, disease and displacement</a> as a result of war.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US is among more than a dozen countries to freeze funding to UN agency providing aid to displaced Gazans over allegations of complicity in the Oct. 7 attack.Nicholas R. Micinski, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, University of MaineKelsey Norman, Fellow for the Middle East, Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221102024-01-28T14:53:39Z2024-01-28T14:53:39ZRuling by UN’s top court means Canada and the U.S. could be complicit in Gaza genocide<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ruling-by-uns-top-court-means-canada-and-the-us-could-be-complicit-in-gaza-genocide" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The International Court of Justice has issued <a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240126-ord-01-00-en.pdf">a ground-breaking decision</a> in South Africa’s genocide case against Israel, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uns-top-court-orders-israel-to-prevent-genocide-in-gaza-but-fails-to-call-for-immediate-ceasefire-222080">ordering Israel to comply with six provisional measures</a> to safeguard the right of Palestinians in Gaza to be protected from genocidal violence.</p>
<p>The court’s order is binding on Israel and formalizes the international legal obligations of other countries that are parties to the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf">UN Genocide Convention</a>.</p>
<p>Properly understood, the order should dramatically alter both the foreign and domestic policy decisions of Israel’s allies, including Canada and the United States.</p>
<p>Israel and its allies cannot dismiss or minimize the importance of this decision. In granting interim relief, the court concluded that South Africa’s allegations of genocide are, at a minimum, legally and factually plausible.</p>
<h2>Other countries must act</h2>
<p>Crucially, the court expressly concluded, by an overwhelming majority, that Palestinians in Gaza face a “real and imminent risk” of genocide. This puts other countries on notice that they have an international legal duty to take steps to prevent genocide in Gaza in accordance with the court’s order.</p>
<p>As the court stated in a 2007 ruling <a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/files/case-related/91/091-20070226-JUD-01-00-EN.pdf">when Bosnia accused Serbia of genocide</a>, countries that are parties to the Genocide Convention have an obligation to prevent and a corresponding duty to act “the instant that the state learns of, or should normally have learned of, the existence of a serious risk that genocide will be committed.”</p>
<p>Both Canada and the U.S. have construed the court’s decision narrowly, suggesting it merely reiterates Israel’s right of self-defence and obligation to comply with international humanitarian law.</p>
<p>This is a legally indefensible reading of the court’s ruling.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/01/26/world/israel-hamas-gaza-news/b6568e0f-1669-55c8-b41f-0538b71e83c7?smid=url-share">U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration says</a> it believes the court’s decision is consistent with existing American policy on Israel and that it continues to view South Africa’s case as “meritless.”</p>
<p>Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2024/01/statement-by-minister-joly-on-the-international-court-of-justices-decision-on-south-africas-request-for-provisional-measures-in-its-case-against-is.html">Mélanie Joly reiterated that</a> Canada’s “support for the ICJ does not mean that we accept the premise of the case.”</p>
<p>Statements of political support by the U.S. and Canada that Israel is abiding by the laws of war — <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/06/04/israel-50-years-occupation-abuses">contrary to the facts</a> — <a href="https://x.com/AdHaque110/status/1751243731557056872?s=20">cannot shield</a> Israel or its allies from their legal obligations under the Genocide Convention. Those obligations — including to prevent genocide — are created via treaty and are interpreted by courts, the highest of which is the International Court of Justice.</p>
<p>The obligation to prevent genocide, combined with the court’s finding of a serious risk of genocide, means that all parties to the Genocide Convention must refrain from taking steps that would actively frustrate the effective implementation of the court’s order.</p>
<h2>Canada in violation of its obligations</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://dirco.gov.za/statement-by-south-africa-welcoming-the-provisional-measures-ordered-by-the-international-court-of-justice-against-israel/">South Africa stated</a>, “the ICJ has determined that Israel’s actions in Gaza are plausibly genocidal and has indicated provisional measures on that basis.” </p>
<p>Among other measures, the court directed Israel to “take all measures within its power to prevent the commission” of acts of genocide, to prevent and punish incitement to genocide and to “enable the provision of urgently needed basic services and humanitarian assistance to address the adverse conditions of life faced by Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.”</p>
<p>The court emphasized evidence from the World Health Organization indicating that “93 per cent of the population in Gaza is facing crisis levels of hunger” and “that maternal and newborn death rates are expected to increase due to the lack of access to medical care.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Several Israeli flags fly in front of a giant screen showing military action." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571754/original/file-20240128-29-qcc3my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571754/original/file-20240128-29-qcc3my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571754/original/file-20240128-29-qcc3my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571754/original/file-20240128-29-qcc3my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571754/original/file-20240128-29-qcc3my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571754/original/file-20240128-29-qcc3my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571754/original/file-20240128-29-qcc3my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pro-Israel activists gather next to a screen near the International Court of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands on Jan. 26, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Patrick Post)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But just hours after the court’s ruling, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/26/world/middleeast/un-aid-israel-oct-7-attacks.html">the U.S. announced it was suspending funding</a> for the <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/">United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East</a>. </p>
<p>The funding cuts came after Israeli allegations that 12 UNRWA employees had participated in the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas against Israel. <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/official-statements/serious-allegations-against-unrwa-staff-gaza-strip">UNRWA has terminated the accused employees and launched an investigation</a>.</p>
<p>The U.S. is the biggest financial contributor to UNRWA. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/28/which-countries-have-cut-funding-to-unrwa-and-why">Several other key donor countries</a>, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2024/01/statement-by-minister-hussen-on-allegations-against-staff-of-united-nations-relief-and-works-agency-for-palestine-refugees-in-the-near-east.html">including Canada</a>, quickly followed suit.</p>
<p>UNRWA is the largest aid provider in Gaza and a trusted lifeline to civilians in the territory. Even if the allegations are true, defunding the entire organization <a href="https://twitter.com/FranceskAlbs/status/1751554749659324847">openly defies</a> the court’s order and <a href="https://x.com/UNLazzarini/status/1751345422918959147?s=20">amounts to collective punishment of the civilian population in Gaza</a>.</p>
<p>Disturbingly, moves to defund UNRWA appear to help implement Israeli government plans to undermine the organization’s capacity to deliver aid to Palestinians in Gaza. Earlier this month, policy experts <a href="https://www.jns.org/israeli-lawmakers-ponder-unrwa-overhaul/">told the Knesset</a> that UNRWA “must be dismantled and thrown in the dustbin of history” and that “no country that is a friend of Israel should provide them any money.”</p>
<p>The ICJ found that “the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is at serious risk of deteriorating further,” plausibly inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about the physical destruction of Palestinians in Gaza. </p>
<p>Accordingly, any country’s action knowingly contributing to further deterioration would violate the obligation to prevent genocide and could amount to complicity in genocide.</p>
<h2>Canada must halt arms sales to Israel</h2>
<p>The court’s provisional measures also impact Canada’s compliance with its own laws on military exports.</p>
<p>In 2022, <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/transparency-transparence/controls-controles/military-goods-2022-marchandises-militaires.aspx?lang=eng">Canada sent more than $21 million worth of military exports to Israel</a>. The <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/e-19/page-4.html#h-203166">Export and Import Permits Act</a> forbids arms permits to be issued if there’s a “substantial risk” that the goods could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian or human rights law.</p>
<p>Because the ICJ found a serious risk of genocide in Gaza, continuing to export arms to Israel would be illegal. It would also be flagrantly inconsistent with Canada’s obligation to prevent genocide, and could expose Canada and Canadian officials to liability for participation in genocide.</p>
<p>We must reject the politics of deliberate indifference to atrocity currently on display in the Canadian government’s reactions to the ICJ ruling.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222110/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heidi Matthews receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, Women and Gender Equality Canada, York University and the British Academy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Faisal A. Bhabha receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He is an advisor to the Centre for Free Expression, the National Council of Canadian Muslims and the Legal Centre for Palestine. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohammad Fadel receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He is a director of Muslim Advocates, a U.S. 501(c)(3) legal education and civil rights charity. </span></em></p>The recent ruling by the International Court of Justice means Canada could be guilty of supporting genocide in Gaza by cutting aid funding and continuing military exports to Israel.Heidi Matthews, Assistant Professor of Law, Osgoode Hall Law School, York University, CanadaFaisal A. Bhabha, Associate Professor of Law, York University, CanadaMohammad Fadel, Professor, Faculty of Law, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196952024-01-15T02:41:53Z2024-01-15T02:41:53ZFollowing the Voice failure, Indigenous politicians are calling for the UN’s Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples to be implemented. What is it and what would it mean?<p>The Voice referendum was a disappointing result for many, but there is hope that much of its vision could be achieved via a different path. The <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Aboriginal_and_Torres_Strait_Islander_Affairs#:%7E:text=On%2027%20July%202022%2C%20the,the%20Senate%20or%20a%20Minister.">Joint Standing Committee on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Affairs</a> has presented a <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/reportjnt/RB000083/toc_pdf/InquiryintotheapplicationoftheUnitedNationsDeclarationontheRightsofIndigenousPeoplesinAustralia.pdf">report</a> to federal parliament calling for the implementation of the <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Aboriginal_and_Torres_Strait_Islander_Affairs#:%7E:text=On%2027%20July%202022%2C%20the,the%20Senate%20or%20a%20Minister.">committee</a> was led by Uncle Patrick Dodson, a Yawuru poltician who is retiring from the senate on January 26, the anniversary of Australia’s invasion.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/C0OSl3mvAj5","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">declaration</a> is essentially a list of human rights Indigenous peoples have under international law. These rights are presented as articles. These include the right to self-determination and participation in decision-making in matters that affect them. </p>
<p>If the committee’s call to implement the declaration is accepted by the federal government, this right to participation in decision-making could be achieved in many ways. This includes non-constitutional implementation of the <a href="https://ulurustatement.org/the-statement/view-the-statement/">Uluru Statement from the Heart</a>. </p>
<p>A strong majority of the standing committee including the Greens’ members supported the implementation of the declaration. The coalition members dissented on the key recommendations. DjabWurrung Gunnai Gunditjmara senator Lidia Thorpe supported the recommendation but went further to propose the declaration be enshrined in federal legislation. Thorpe’s proposal was <a href="https://nit.com.au/06-12-2023/8934/coalition-labor-combine-to-sink-UNDRIP-bill">rejected</a> by parliament.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-political-subjugation-of-first-nations-peoples-is-no-longer-historical-legacy-213752">The political subjugation of First Nations peoples is no longer historical legacy</a>
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<h2>What is the UN Declaration for the Rights of Indigenous Peoples?</h2>
<p>Indigenous peoples’ human rights in Australia (and elsewhere) were grossly violated by colonisation which resulted in past and ongoing injustices. The <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">declaration</a> recognises and lists those rights with the purpose of addressing those injustices.</p>
<p>A key right in the declaration is Article 4:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Indigenous peoples, in exercising their right to self-determination, have the right to autonomy or self-government in matters relating to their internal and local affairs, as well as ways and means for financing their autonomous functions.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">declaration</a> was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 2007 after 20 years of <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/reportjnt/RB000083/toc_pdf/InquiryintotheapplicationoftheUnitedNationsDeclarationontheRightsofIndigenousPeoplesinAustralia.pdf">negotiation</a> by Indigenous peoples and governments around the world. </p>
<p>Indigenous figures in Australia played leading roles in these processes. Development of the declaration involved people such as Uncle <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/sites/default/files/declaration_abridged_community_guide.pdf">Les Malezer</a>, a Gubbi Gubbi and Butchulla man who was the chair of the Indigenous peoples caucus and addressed the United Nations General Assembly when the <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">declaration</a> was adopted. </p>
<p>Yarawu barrister and academic Uncle <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Mick-Dodson#ref1300688">Mick Dodson</a> helped draft the <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">declaration</a>, and <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/unpfii-sessions-2/chairs-of-pfii.html">Professor Megan Davis</a>, a Cobble Cobble woman, was part of the UN <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">declaration</a> working group.</p>
<p>The declaration has garnered <a href="https://www.naccho.org.au/app/uploads/2023/05/NACCHO-Submission-Inquiry-into-application-of-UNDRIP.pdf">strong support</a> among Indigenous communities in Australia.</p>
<p>The Joint Standing Committee on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Affairs <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/reportjnt/RB000083/toc_pdf/InquiryintotheapplicationoftheUnitedNationsDeclarationontheRightsofIndigenousPeoplesinAustralia.pdf">report</a> states applying the declaration could improve access to land rights, help combat racial discrimination and support Indigenous businesses, social services and cultural organisations. </p>
<p>We suggest it would also add great momentum to historic processes already underway, such as <a href="https://yoorrookjusticecommission.org.au/">truth-telling</a> and <a href="https://www.firstpeoplesvic.org/">treaty-making</a> in Victoria. </p>
<p>The main purpose of treaty-making is to give effect to Indigenous peoples’ self-determination. Implementing the declaration would support treaty-making because it would involve recognising self-determination as a right.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-update-deadlock-in-the-un-security-council-means-no-relief-for-suffering-palestinian-civilians-219928">Gaza update: deadlock in the UN security council means no relief for suffering Palestinian civilians</a>
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<h2>How the declaration could be implemented by law and/or policy</h2>
<p>The Joint Standing Committee on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Affairs’ <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/reportjnt/RB000083/toc_pdf/InquiryintotheapplicationoftheUnitedNationsDeclarationontheRightsofIndigenousPeoplesinAustralia.pdf">report</a> examined how the <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">declaration</a> could be implemented in Australia and whether it should be through legislation, under policy, or both.</p>
<p>Senator Thorpe’s <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/legislation/bills/s1341_first-senate/toc_pdf/22S0520.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf">private member’s bill</a> called for the <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">declaration</a> to be enshrined in federal legislation. The bill would have required the federal parliament to ensure its legislation was consistent with the declaration. It would also have required the federal government to adopt an action plan for its implementation. The bill was <a href="https://nit.com.au/06-12-2023/8934/coalition-labor-combine-to-sink-UNDRIP-bill">rejected</a>.</p>
<p>The majority of the standing committee decided against supporting Thorpe’s approach, preferring a more flexible process. Their <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/reportjnt/RB000083/toc_pdf/InquiryintotheapplicationoftheUnitedNationsDeclarationontheRightsofIndigenousPeoplesinAustralia.pdf">report</a> examined how Canada and New Zealand’s legal and policy-based approaches for implementing the <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">declaration</a> appear to have been effective. This is different to senator Thorpe’s approach which requires legislating the declaration as an absolute minimum.</p>
<p>The standing committee recommend instead that Indigenous peoples have a choice of approach, through negotiations with governments and others, based on their right to self-determination. Whether this would need at least the minimum standards and essential framework to be set down in legislation is an open question yet to be answered.</p>
<p>The Voice offered a bold vision of a constitutionally protected say for Indigenous peoples in federal law-making and administration. This would have been consistent with the right to self-determination and to participation in decision-making specified in the <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">declaration</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Aboriginal_and_Torres_Strait_Islander_Affairs#:%7E:text=On%2027%20July%202022%2C%20the,the%20Senate%20or%20a%20Minister.">committee’s</a> <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/reportjnt/RB000083/toc_pdf/InquiryintotheapplicationoftheUnitedNationsDeclarationontheRightsofIndigenousPeoplesinAustralia.pdf">report</a> states the <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">declaration</a> offers a bigger vision than the Voice. </p>
<p>It recognises not only the importance of First Nations peoples’ self-determination and participation in decision-making, but also rights to housing, health, work and freedom from discrimination and other human rights. </p>
<p>Implementing the <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">declaration</a> does not necessarily require constitutional enshrinement.</p>
<p>While the Voice would have given Indigenous people a powerful say in those areas, implementing the declaration could elevate that say and those areas to the level of human rights. This is greatly needed in the aftermath of a disappointing and painful referendum result.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219695/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>As a barrister in the 1990s Professor Bell represented the Yawuru People including Senator Dodson and Mick Dodson in their native title case in the Federal Court of Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wayne Atkinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the aftermath of a disappointing Voice referendum, Indigenous politicians are looking to the United Nations Declaration for the Rights of Indigenous Peoples as a potential way forward.Wayne Atkinson, Senior Yorta Yorta Elder and Fellow School of Social and Political Science, University of Melbourne., The University of MelbourneKevin Bell, Adjunct professor, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2202662024-01-08T16:43:08Z2024-01-08T16:43:08ZFreedom of thought is being threatened by states, big tech and even ourselves. Here’s what we can do to protect it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568035/original/file-20240105-27-gzzeml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C46%2C5184%2C3383&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/danang-vietnam-august-2019-photo-taken-2185304981">Beauty Is In The Eye Inc/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The idea of free speech sparked into life 2,500 years ago <a href="https://oll.libertyfund.org/reading-room/2022-08-17-review-free-speech-a-history-from-socrates-to-social-media-by-jacob-mchangama-basic-books-2022">in Ancient Greece</a> – in part because it served a politician’s interests. The ability to speak freely was seen as essential for the new Athenian democracy, which the politician <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Aspects-of-Greek-History-750-323BC-A-Source-Based-Approach/Buckley/p/book/9780415549776">Cleisthenes</a> both introduced and benefited from.</p>
<p>Today, we debate the boundaries of free speech around kitchen tables and watercoolers, in the media and in our courtrooms. The <a href="https://www.equalityhumanrights.com/human-rights/human-rights-act/article-9-freedom-thought-belief-and-religion">right to freedom of thought</a>, however, is more rarely discussed. But thanks to the growing influence of social media, big data and new technology, this “<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3291586">forgotten freedom</a>” needs our urgent attention.</p>
<p>In democratic societies ruled by ballots not bullets, power is won through persuasion. Efforts at persuasion are ramping up: there will be <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_national_electoral_calendar">more than 50 national elections</a> involving half the world’s population in 2024, including in <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/01/03/2024-is-the-biggest-election-year-in-history-here-are-the-countries-going-to-the-polls-this-year/">seven of the ten most populous countries</a>. The results will <a href="https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/four-2024-elections-will-shape-second-half-decade">shape our century</a>, making it paramount that we protect people’s ability to think and vote freely. </p>
<p>But corporate and political actors know more about how our minds work than we do. They activate our biases rather than appeal to our reason, push us to share information without thinking, and control our attention to the point of addiction.</p>
<p>Advances in neuroscience may heighten this threat to free thought. Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerburg are among those in a <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/5/4/23708162/neurotechnology-mind-reading-brain-neuralink-brain-computer-interface">race to read our minds</a> with the help of artificial intelligence (AI). In 2021, the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/thematic-reports/a76380-interim-report-special-rapporteur-freedom-religion-or-belief">UN warned of</a> the risks of neural technologies predicting, identifying and modifying our thoughts. Manhattan projects of the mind threaten to make lab rats of us all.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567634/original/file-20240103-25-nqv1bk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Suited man standing next to a brain imaging device." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567634/original/file-20240103-25-nqv1bk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567634/original/file-20240103-25-nqv1bk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567634/original/file-20240103-25-nqv1bk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567634/original/file-20240103-25-nqv1bk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567634/original/file-20240103-25-nqv1bk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567634/original/file-20240103-25-nqv1bk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567634/original/file-20240103-25-nqv1bk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Elon Musk’s brain implant company Neuralink received regulatory approval to conduct the first clinical trial in humans in 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Elon_Musk_and_the_Neuralink_Future.jpg">Steve Jurvetson/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>We could respond by calling on our right to freedom of thought. It’s there waiting for us, created in 1948 by the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-human-rights">Universal Declaration of Human Rights</a> (Article 18) and later <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/international-covenant-civil-and-political-rights">becoming international law</a>. But anyone reaching for this right may be horrified to find it hollow, bereft of any clear definition and unfit for purpose.</p>
<p>In recent years, the UN has sought to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13642987.2023.2227100">give this right more substance</a>. One of its special rapporteurs, Ahmed Shaheed, has made a <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/thematic-reports/a76380-interim-report-special-rapporteur-freedom-religion-or-belief">series of recommendations</a> (which I will outline) that should, eventually, lead to a better defined, more muscular right to free thought. This process has promise – it could help shield our thoughts from prying eyes and protect our minds from manipulation.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-what-extent-are-you-truly-free-71188">To what extent are you truly free?</a>
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</em>
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<p>But it also has the potential for harm. In international law, freedom of thought is an absolute right. This means it could run roughshod over other important concerns. Activists could, for example, use this right to silence their political opponents by claiming their opponents’ speech is manipulating thoughts.</p>
<p>This right could also go wrong by failing to protect all forms of thought. We must ask where “thinking” ends and “speaking” begins in today’s world: should performing an online search, writing a personal diary, or asking a question in a WhatsApp group be regarded as forms of thought, or outright speech?</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
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<p>History suggests the right to free thought will only become globally relevant if political factions <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674064348">or states</a> use it to serve their purposes. And this looks increasingly likely as accusations of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jan/04/cambridge-analytica-data-leak-global-election-manipulation">mental manipulation</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48065622">“thoughtcrime” creation</a> fly between the political right and left, and the US looks for new weapons in its <a href="https://www.hoover.org/research/cold-war-ii-niall-ferguson-emerging-conflict-china">developing cold war with China</a>.</p>
<p>For both technological and (geo)political reasons, the right to freedom of thought’s time may have come. Whatever it is decided to mean, it will bind us all. As I argue in my new book <a href="https://oneworld-publications.com/work/freethinking/">Freethinking</a>, this makes it crucial that we can all have input into its design. </p>
<h2>Free thought past</h2>
<p>The term “freethinker” came into common use during the Enlightenment in late 17th-century Europe, describing people who questioned religious authorities. Today, freethinking typically refers to being <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/mono/10.4324/9780203429488-94/value-free-thought-1944-kenneth-blackwell-harry-ruja-bernd-frohmann-john-slater-sheila-turcon">guided by evidence and reason, not authority</a> – although this hasn’t stopped people who play fast and loose with evidence appropriating the term too.</p>
<p>Up against the freethinkers are those who seek to control thought to achieve and cement power. George Orwell’s classic vision of this threat, Nineteen Eighty-Four, actually came out 20 years after <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/thought-crime">Japan’s Peace Preservation Law</a> had already termed many people on the political left as “thought criminals”.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/T8BA7adK6XA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Nineteen Eighty-Four official trailer (1984)</span></figcaption>
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<p>In Orwell’s novel, the ruling party aims to “extinguish once and for all the possibility of independent thought”. Beginning in childhood, people are taught to deny the evidence of their eyes and ears. No one is to be left alone to think – yet nor are they able to think with others. People are encouraged to stop themselves on the threshold of dangerous thoughts, as the terrifying Thought Police find and punish those who commit “thoughtcrime”.</p>
<p>The ruling party also uses extensive surveillance, parallels to which can be seen today. Consider the effects of Edward Snowden’s 2013 revelations that the US was heavily surveilling the internet. This led to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2412564">a 10% drop</a> in internet searches that could have got Americans in trouble with their government, such as “domestic security”, “nuclear” and “organized crime”. Americans’ suspicion that they were being watched harmed their freedom of thought.</p>
<p>New technologies drive new laws. Just as photography spurred <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/mslr2008&div=7&g_sent=1&casa_token=kSy5i8DmOnMAAAAA:SOLEoYd1oW26YL0UiKKPWV9aKVd7KfdzUfLUOgUyAMRLC2FF8L3RVWY33iU9bZ8gNTkQX8tW6w&collection=journals">a right to privacy</a> in 1890, today <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-84494-3">scholars</a> want to develop the right to freedom of thought in response to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24756752">neurotechnology</a> and the <a href="https://www.doughtystreet.co.uk/sites/default/files/media/document/Rethinking%20Freedom%20of%20Thought%20for%20the%2021st.pdf">digital world</a>. This means confronting the gulf between the extensive lauding of this right and the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13642987.2023.2227100">bewildering neglect</a> of what it practically involves. Enter the UN.</p>
<h2>Free thought present</h2>
<p>In October 2021, special rapporteur Shaheed <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/thematic-reports/a76380-interim-report-special-rapporteur-freedom-religion-or-belief">presented a report</a> on the right to freedom of thought. To underpin this right, he proposed four pillars which I summarise as follows, including some questions I think we should consider about them:</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567687/original/file-20240103-510735-l12yif.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Universal Declaration of Human Rights document" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567687/original/file-20240103-510735-l12yif.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567687/original/file-20240103-510735-l12yif.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=809&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567687/original/file-20240103-510735-l12yif.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=809&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567687/original/file-20240103-510735-l12yif.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=809&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567687/original/file-20240103-510735-l12yif.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1017&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567687/original/file-20240103-510735-l12yif.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1017&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567687/original/file-20240103-510735-l12yif.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1017&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_universal_declaration_of_human_rights_10_December_1948.jpg">UN via Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p><strong>1. Mental privacy.</strong> People cannot be forced to reveal their thoughts. This means we must scrutinise technological developments that open new windows into our minds. But should our minds always be private?</p>
<p><strong>2. Mental immunity.</strong> People cannot be punished for their thoughts. This idea has existed since ancient Rome, though today we need to decide what exactly should count as a “thought”.</p>
<p><strong>3. Mental integrity.</strong> People and organisations cannot alter others’ thoughts without permission. We know subliminal advertising is wrong because it bypasses our conscious mind – but beyond this, we enter a grey zone. When does persuasion become impermissible manipulation?</p>
<p><strong>4. Mental fertility.</strong> This enshrines a government’s duty to create an enabling environment for free thought. But will governments really do this if free thought challenges their power? And even if they want to, how can they design a society that promotes free thought?</p>
<p>To build on these pillars, we need to answer basic questions about what thought is and what makes it free. Before we can protect thought, we must first define it.</p>
<h2>Free thought future</h2>
<p>Traditionally, the law views thoughts as happening inside our brains. Yet philosophers (and, increasingly, psychologists and technologists) have <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3328150">long claimed that</a> thought “ain’t just in the head”, proposing that our minds extend into the world. </p>
<p>A notebook can be the functioning memory of someone with dementia. Writing in a diary, as Winston Smith did illegally in Nineteen Eighty-Four, can also represent thinking. Writing doesn’t only express thought; sometimes “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511583360">the thinking is the writing</a>”. Similarly, some internet searches can be a form of thinking as we use them to question, reason and reflect.</p>
<p>If the right to freedom of thought is deemed to cover our “extended minds”, this will have important consequences. Authorities <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2016/08/how-your-google-searches-can-be-used-against-you-court">often access the internet search histories</a> of people accused of crimes, using this as evidence. In homicide trials, searches such as “how to get rid of someone annoying” or “chloroform” have been <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2016/08/how-your-google-searches-can-be-used-against-you-court">cited in court</a>. But if such searches are deemed to constitute thinking, then accessing someone’s search history could become a violation of their mental privacy.</p>
<p>Speaking aloud can also be regarded as a form of thinking – we sometimes speak to find out what we think. As novelist <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1600910X.2019.1630846">E.M. Forster asked</a>: “How do I know what I think until I see what I say?”</p>
<p>But we also speak aloud in order to think with other people – and we may <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2009.09.003">think better with others</a> than we do alone. Thought can be at its most powerful when it is social, rather than the solitary act depicted by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Thinker">Auguste Rodin</a>. So, for thought to be truly free, we require public as well as private thinking spaces.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567693/original/file-20240103-29-s0we6w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rodin's statue The Thinker in a leafy garden." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567693/original/file-20240103-29-s0we6w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567693/original/file-20240103-29-s0we6w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567693/original/file-20240103-29-s0we6w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567693/original/file-20240103-29-s0we6w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567693/original/file-20240103-29-s0we6w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567693/original/file-20240103-29-s0we6w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567693/original/file-20240103-29-s0we6w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thinking is not always best done alone, despite Rodin’s famous depiction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rodin%27s_The_Thinker_-_panoramio.jpg">Roman Suzuki/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To facilitate this, we may need a new legal concept of “<a href="https://oneworld-publications.com/work/freethinking/">thoughtspeech</a>”. This would represent the thinking aloud we do with others in the name of “good faith truth-seeking”. Thoughtspeech could be protected as absolutely as the thoughts inside our head: while one could (and should) still disagree with others, attempts to silence or punish thoughtspeech would be a human rights violation.</p>
<p>However, an obvious concern is that this concept could be misused to justify hate speech that <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/policies/justice-and-fundamental-rights/combatting-discrimination/racism-and-xenophobia/combating-hate-speech-and-hate-crime_en#:%7E:text=Hate%20motivated%20crime%20and%20speech,or%20national%20or%20ethnic%20origin.">Europe</a>, but <a href="https://www.ala.org/advocacy/intfreedom/hate">not the US</a>, has deemed illegal. The protestation that “I’m just asking questions” can easily be employed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00207659.2021.1939946">as a cover to demonise people</a>. At the same time, a creeping prohibition of asking difficult or challenging questions is also potentially dangerous, not least to society’s minorities who seek to challenge the status quo. Where necessary, courts would have to decide whether the claimed thoughtspeech was genuine truth-seeking in good faith, or had darker motives.</p>
<p>To see these thorny questions in practice, consider how, in Ireland, both <a href="https://www.kildarestreet.com/debate/?id=2023-04-26a.380">the left</a> and right have argued that the proposed <a href="https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/bill/2022/105/eng/ver_b/b105b22d.pdf">criminal justice (incitement to violence or hatred and hate offences) bill</a> 2022 will create “thought crimes”. Section 10(3) of this bill states that if you possess hateful material that you haven’t shown anyone, and it is reasonable to assume this material is not just intended for personal use, then you are presumed to be breaking the law. The police could then seek a warrant to enter your premises and access this information.</p>
<p>One <a href="https://www.independent.ie/podcasts/the-big-tech-show/the-big-tech-show-irelands-new-hate-speech-law-will-create-thought-crimes/a978548546.html">politician claimed</a> this bill would not create thought crimes because it involved “production of material”, and that “nobody is ever going to be prosecuted for what they’re thinking inside their heads”. This illustrates the restricted view of thought that some politicians hold – and suggests that legislators could leave much of our thinking naked and vulnerable.</p>
<p>Once we have settled on what thought is, we must work out what makes it free. The <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A32022R2065">EU’s Digital Services Act</a> forbids online platforms from deceiving or manipulating users, or impairing their ability to make “free and informed decisions”. But what counts as manipulation or impairing free decision-making?</p>
<p>Psychology suggests that free thinking requires us to control our attention, be able to reason and reflect, and to not need superhuman courage to think aloud with others. This makes platforms and products problematic that either capture our attention to the <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/14/2612">point of addiction</a>, or employ “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jla/laaa006">dark patterns</a>” that undermine reflection and reasoning.</p>
<p>For instance, in the “false demand” dark pattern, a shopping website may falsely tell you that “Abby in London” has just bought a pillow. This could undermine your reasoning by triggering a panicky sense of scarcity in you, or setting a false norm of others buying the pillow, making you more likely to purchase.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567710/original/file-20240103-19-2ta8k1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three UK local election ballot papers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567710/original/file-20240103-19-2ta8k1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567710/original/file-20240103-19-2ta8k1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567710/original/file-20240103-19-2ta8k1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567710/original/file-20240103-19-2ta8k1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567710/original/file-20240103-19-2ta8k1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567710/original/file-20240103-19-2ta8k1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567710/original/file-20240103-19-2ta8k1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">UK local election ballot papers with candidates listed in alphabetical order.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ballot_papers_for_the_2021_United_Kingdom_local_elections.jpg">domdomegg/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The designers of systems need not even intentionally play on our mental biases for their products to be problematic. For instance, listing candidates in alphabetical order on a voting ballot paper may seem neutral, but the candidate named first gains a small <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.06.019">but measurable advantage</a>. This is partly because we have a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.09.002">mental bias to prefer</a> the first item on a list. </p>
<p>Some US states don’t use <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261379414000584">alphabetical ordering on ballots</a> for this reason. Instead they randomly rotate the order of candidates’ names on ballots across districts. Yet, elsewhere, <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/guidance-acting-returning-officers-administering-a-uk-parliamentary-election-great-britain/voter-materials/production-ballot-papers/ballot-paper-design/candidate-details">including in the UK</a>, this alphabetical practice continues. Alphabetical ordering arguably violates voters’ right to freedom of thought.</p>
<p>I believe the right to freedom of thought should protect thinking wherever it occurs – in our heads, our diaries, on the internet, or when we’re engaged in good faith truth-seeking when thinking aloud with others. And crucially, to keep thoughts free, our environment must be designed and regulated to let us control our attention, think logically and reflectively, and not fear punishment for our thoughts. Unfortunately, new technologies threaten this ideal.</p>
<h2>The power to punish thought</h2>
<p>New technologies have the potential to undermine three of the UN’s pillars of free thought – mental privacy, immunity, and integrity. It is well known, for example, that social media can use knowledge of how our minds work to hijack our attention, discourage reflection, and facilitate the punishment of wrongthink, thereby <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13347-022-00567-7">harming our autonomy</a>. Less well known is how social media revives an old social pattern that threatens free thought.</p>
<p>Our hunter-gatherer ancestors lived in egalitarian communities with no dominant individuals. This was due to a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/204166">reverse dominance hierarchy</a>” which meant that, if someone tried to rise above others, the group would work together to humble, exclude or even kill this would-be “tall poppy”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567734/original/file-20240103-23-v2f60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Cave painting of hunter gatherers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567734/original/file-20240103-23-v2f60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567734/original/file-20240103-23-v2f60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567734/original/file-20240103-23-v2f60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567734/original/file-20240103-23-v2f60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567734/original/file-20240103-23-v2f60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567734/original/file-20240103-23-v2f60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567734/original/file-20240103-23-v2f60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Our hunter-gatherer ancestors lived in egalitarian communities without dominant individuals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ancient-prehistoric-cave-painting-known-white-2005544015">R.M. Nunes/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My book <a href="https://oneworld-publications.com/work/spite/">Spite</a> (2020) explains how anthropologists believe this was possible due to humans’ ability to moralise, wield weapons and use language. Language in particular, especially gossip, helped coordinate actions against tall poppies. When agriculture was invented, larger groups, private property and recognised authority figures came on to the scene, enabling a <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-boehm/moral-origins/9780465020485/">more hierarchical form of life</a>.</p>
<p>Social media has bought back the reverse dominance hierarchy. People online can unite to moralise and gossip, sometimes with the effect of bringing down individuals. And while this can helpfully check people who abuse their power, it can also harm freethinkers who disturb the status quo and undermine what they see as society’s “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noble_lie">noble</a>” (or ignoble) lies.</p>
<p>And not only can new technologies facilitate the punishment of thought, they also have the potential to powerfully manipulate our thoughts. AI will soon know exactly what to say to us to maximise the chances of us performing a desired behaviour. As OpenAI’s CEO <a href="https://youtu.be/e1cf58VWzt8?feature=shared&t=526">Sam Altman has warned</a> in relation to the 2024 elections:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>What if an AI reads everything you have ever written online – every tweet, every article, every everything – then right at the exact moment, sends you one message, customised just for you, that really changes how you think about the world?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The power disparity between us and AI means that courts could deem AI to have improper undue influence over our minds.</p>
<p>New technologies can also uncover our hidden thoughts. This goes beyond what Big Brother was capable of. As Orwell wrote in Nineteen Eighty-Four, even the ruling party “had never mastered the secret of finding out what another human being was thinking”. </p>
<p>Today, brain-reading technology that detects thoughts via brain scans or neural interfaces threatens to uncover this secret. Meta (Facebook’s owner) <a href="https://ai.meta.com/blog/brain-ai-image-decoding-meg-magnetoencephalography/">recently showed</a> it could determine what people were seeing by examining their brainwaves using magnetoencephalography (MEG) technology. Behaviour-reading techniques that use our actions, such as <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2003-00779-011">musical preferences</a> or what we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1218772110">“like” on Facebook</a>, can also be used to infer our internal states. </p>
<p>Now, imagine if a government had someone in custody suspected of having planted a nuclear bomb in a city. There would be a strong temptation to use mind-reading technology to identify the location of the bomb from that individual’s brain – but this would violate the suspect’s right to free thought. Some people, perhaps many, would argue that this right <em>should</em> be violated in such circumstances. </p>
<p>Perhaps the future could include places where free thought is legally limited. While this is a challenging idea, it would be ironic if we failed to think critically about free thought itself. Legal scholar Jan Christoph Bublitz has speculated on the idea of “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24756752">zones of restricted freedom of thought</a>” in places vulnerable to terrorism, such as airports. In these zones, our thoughts could be permissibly accessed by the state to prevent calamities. </p>
<p>Likewise, the philosopher <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Moral-Landscape/Sam-Harris/9781439171226">Sam Harris has suggested</a> that once mind reading technology can detect lies, it could be used to create “zones of obligatory candour”. These would be locations, such as courtrooms, where lies would be automatically detected from your brainwaves.</p>
<p>Yet, concerns about mind-reading technologies are frequently blighted by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13642987.2023.2227100">hyperbole, alarmism and exaggeration</a>. One does not simply fall into an MRI scanner; one must consent. Once inside, <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.29.509744v1">we must cooperate</a> with researchers for brain-reading to work. The extent to which our mental content can be accurately identified is often over-hyped, as it requires extremely specific conditions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/does-ai-have-a-right-to-free-speech-only-if-it-supports-our-right-to-free-thought-212555">Does AI have a right to free speech? Only if it supports our right to free thought</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It’s also important to recognise that the same technologies that threaten free thought can also benefit thought. Brain-computer interfaces, where we interact with computers simply by thinking, could <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/09/29/1080472/elon-musk-bandwidth-brains/">boost our mental bandwidth</a>. AI systems such as ChatGPT can stimulate new ideas. So, over-regulating these technologies could be seen as harming free thought.</p>
<p>Clearly, we need to protect free thought in response to new technologies. But in my view, overreacting with unnecessary laws won’t lead to freer minds – it will simply enable other people’s anxieties to rule our lives.</p>
<h2>Protecting employees’ and users’ thoughts</h2>
<p>Traditionally, governments were seen as the main threat to our freedoms. Today, corporations, particularly those involved in controlling flows of information such as media and technology companies, vie for this crown. </p>
<p>Such companies influence what information we do and don’t see. They can also overwhelm us with too much content, creating “<a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.7312/poze19712-002/html">reverse censorship</a>” that harms our ability to think. Corporations also threaten free thought through their ability to fire employees for thoughtcrime, potentially in response to a public outcry. </p>
<p>The British philosopher Bertrand Russell warned <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Thought_and_Official_Propaganda">a century ago</a> that “thought is not free if the profession of certain opinions makes it impossible to earn a living”. Russell said this problem would grow unless the public insisted that employers controlled nothing in their employees’ lives except their work. Today, employers can influence their employees’ <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26842250">morality</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.4135/9781526488664">opinions</a>, and even <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2012/10/employers-increasingly-telling-employees-workers-how-to-vote.html">voting decisions</a>. As a starting point, we need laws that protect employees from being fired for their thinking.</p>
<p>To take another example, while the anti-discriminatory aims of implicit bias training are laudable, corporations could require employees to reveal their thoughts when doing it. The designers of a common element of this training, the implicit association test, <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1998-02892-004">admit it is</a> “a method that gives the clearest window now available into a region of the mind that is inaccessible to question-asking methods”. Forcing someone into this training could therefore be a breach of mental privacy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/social-networking-sites-may-be-controlling-your-mind-heres-how-to-take-charge-88516">Social networking sites may be controlling your mind – here's how to take charge</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Turning from employees to users, perhaps big tech companies should be required to design their products to support, promote and protect their users’ free thoughts. For example, social media platforms could set their default options to those that minimise the risk of addiction.</p>
<p>Woodrow Wilson once noted that chewing tobacco “gave a man time to think between sentences”. Big tech could provide digital gum in the form of options that <a href="https://profilebooks.com/work/how-to-think/">give users time for thought</a>, like timeouts before responding to posts or making purchases. X (formerly Twitter) already <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jun/11/twitter-aims-to-limit-people-sharing-articles-they-have-not-read">asks users</a> if they want to share articles they have not yet read.</p>
<p>Similarly, search engines could offer options to show information that challenges users’ existing views rather than confirming their opinions. Websites <a href="https://ground.news/">such as Ground News</a> already highlight which stories are primarily featuring on left or right media, helping people see what is happening outside their own thought bubbles.</p>
<p>Big tech companies such as <a href="https://blog.google/outreach-initiatives/public-policy/our-ongoing-commitment-to-human-rights/">Google</a> and <a href="https://humanrights.fb.com/annual-human-rights-report/">Meta</a> assess their human rights impacts, including through <a href="https://about.fb.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Human-Rights-Due-Diligence-of-Metas-Impacts-in-Israel-and-Palestine-in-May-2021.pdf">independent assessments</a>. But freedom of thought is often overlooked. And while the UN has issued its Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights, these have been described as “<a href="https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/related_material/business.pdf">woefully inadequate</a>” by Human Rights Watch as they lack any enforcement mechanism.</p>
<h2>It’s not just ‘them’, it’s us</h2>
<p>It is not just governments and corporations that threaten free thought – we the people do too. Free thinking has often been risky. “Tell the truth and run,” an old Yugoslavian proverb counsels. </p>
<p>Throughout history, though, some societies have tried to protect free thought and truth-telling. The ancient Athenians had the concept of a “parrhesiast”, someone who spoke truth despite the risks. An example of this came when the aged statesman Solon challenged <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250009104/thecourageoftruth">politician Pisistratus’s</a> quest for power in Athens. After arriving at the Greek Assembly dressed in armour to highlight Pisistratus’s aim to use force, Solon declared:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I am wiser than those who have failed to understand the designs of Pisistratus, and I am more courageous than those who have understood but remain silent out of fear.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>To benefit from the parrhesiast, Athenians had to be willing to bear what philosopher Michel Foucault calls “<a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250009104/thecourageoftruth">the injuries of truth</a>”. In this parrhesiastic contract, the truth-teller risked speaking out and the listeners promised not to punish them. There again, Solon was not thanked for his contribution, being labelled mad by his colleagues.</p>
<p>Creating a safe space for truth requires a “<a href="https://oneworld-publications.com/work/freethinking/">deep enlightenment</a>” that goes beyond simply educating people to think critically. Designing a society that protects and promotes free thought among its population at all levels could even include city planning.</p>
<p>A Brazilian colleague once told me how the design of the country’s modern capital, Brasília, with its lack of street corners, was meant to prevent people assembling and thinking together – because such thinking could one day threaten the ruling powers. Indeed, the Portuguese for street corners can translate as “points of solidarity”. The <a href="https://politicalscience.yale.edu/publications/seeing-state-how-certain-schemes-improve-human-condition-have-failed">design of Brasília</a> is an offence against free thought.</p>
<p>Rather, we need to design physical and virtual spaces that protect, promote and support “<a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262581080/the-structural-transformation-of-the-public-sphere/">people’s public use of their reason</a>”. This function was partially performed by coffee houses during the Enlightenment. New spaces should allow a diverse range of voices to be brought together in debate – in order to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X10000968">help us best find truth</a>. Yet all of this hinges on simultaneously building <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Trust/Francis-Fukuyama/9780684825250">a culture of trust</a> that makes people feel safe to think.</p>
<h2>The oxygen of freethinking</h2>
<p>The principle of free thought is in trouble. Today, public thinking is difficult unless you are rich, reckless or anonymous. Online public spaces, such as much social media, typically prioritise engagement and profit over truth-seeking, and can exclude challenging views. A corporate-controlled mainstream news media routinely excludes or distorts important perspectives <a href="https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801488870/framed/">such as labour issues</a>. Some academics feel compelled to publish ideas anonymously in outlets such as the <a href="https://journalofcontroversialideas.org/">Journal of Controversial Ideas</a>. These are all warning lights of flashing failure on the dashboard of democracy.</p>
<p>The first freethinkers challenged religious authorities and were associated with egalitarianism and the political left. Yet they had their own “<a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/enlightenment/">faith of the Enlightenment</a>” – the belief that developing one’s own reason could create a better life. Today, as well as sharing this faith in reason, many of us have faith that <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/13399/the-end-of-history-and-the-last-man-by-fukuyama-francis/9780241991039">liberal democracy creates the best form of life</a>.</p>
<p>However, some modern freethinkers are pushing back against these faiths. Such individuals tend to be pro-hierarchy and on the political right. The <a href="https://www.jordanbpeterson.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/A-Conservative-Manifesto.pdf">conservative</a> psychologist Jordan Peterson <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEP5ubPMGDU">argues</a> that we’re at the start of a “counter enlightenment”, while legal scholar Adrian Vermeule maligns the “<a href="https://www.firstthings.com/article/2017/01/liturgy-of-liberalism">evidence-based freethinkers of the quiet car</a>” who won’t speak out about liberalism’s problems. Alternatively, so-called “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/japp.12331">Dark Enlightenment</a>” thinkers such as <a href="https://www.unqualified-reservations.org/">Curtis Yarvin</a> and <a href="https://www.imperiumpress.org/shop/the-dark-enlightenment/">Nick Land</a> question the benefits of democracy. </p>
<p>Whatever you think of these views, an important question is: will the descendants of the egalitarian left, who used freethinking to challenge societal norms, support the hierarchical right’s freedom to do the same? Or do they regard the political right as <a href="https://www.marcuse.org/herbert/publications/1960s/1965-repressive-tolerance-fulltext.html">in need of silencing</a> rather than debating?</p>
<p>Of course, freethinking on the left is silenced too – including those who oppose the “religion” of capitalism. Consider what happened when a declared socialist, Jeremy Corbyn, ran for prime minister in the 2017 UK parliamentary elections. An academic report on his <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/media-and-communications/research/research-projects/representations-of-jeremy-corbyn">coverage by the mainstream media</a> concluded by asking whether it was:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>acceptable that the majority of British newspapers uses its mediated power to attack and delegitimise the leader of the largest opposition party against a rightwing government to such an extent and with such vigour?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Whatever one’s views on democracy, liberalism, capitalism, or any other important topic, freethinking on these issues can prove profoundly valuable. If someone’s ideas have value, we may adopt them to live better lives. If we adjudge them mistaken, we will still emerge with a better understanding of precisely why our own ideas are valuable, having remade them as <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/34901/34901-h/34901-h.htm">living truths rather than dead dogmas</a>.</p>
<p>Free thought is not merely about gaining more perspectives. It is about duelling perspectives. The left and right could find common ground not in a <a href="https://www.thefire.org/research-learn/campus-disinvitation-database">commitment to mutual cancellation</a>, but in a renewed dedication to debate. We must embrace the value of thinking. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, we often find thought a painful effort. Evolution has shaped us to make decisions using minimal energy, pressuring us to become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13546783.2018.1459314">cognitive misers</a> who are “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13546783.2018.1459314">as stupid as we can get away with</a>”, as psychologist Keith Stanovich argues. Many of us are not merely disinclined to think but actively prefer electrocution to being left alone with our thoughts, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.1250830">according to one 2014 study</a>.</p>
<p>The rise of generative AI threatens to make this situation worse. One vision of the future imagines <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/291221/the-singularity-is-near-by-ray-kurzweil/">a singularity</a> where we merge with machines by connecting our brains directly to AI. But what if we approach a bifurcation point rather than a singularity? Humans could become a mere source of animalistic appetites and desires, while machines do the thinking for us.</p>
<p>If we abandon free thought, homo sapiens will have been a brief candle between ape and AI. Humanity’s flame cannot continue to burn in an authoritarian vacuum – it requires the oxygen of freethinking. A right to free thought can give us this air, but we still have to breathe in.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
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<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ocd-is-so-much-more-than-handwashing-or-tidying-as-a-historian-with-the-disorder-heres-what-ive-learned-219281?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">OCD is so much more than handwashing or tidying. As a historian with the disorder, here’s what I’ve learned
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon McCarthy-Jones receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program via a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Innovative Training Network.</span></em></p>Corporate and political actors know more about how our minds work than we do. The right to free thought can no longer be our ‘forgotten freedom’Simon McCarthy-Jones, Associate Professor in Clinical Psychology and Neuropsychology, Trinity College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201422023-12-20T13:38:01Z2023-12-20T13:38:01ZWhy the COP28 climate summit mattered, and what to watch for in 2024<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566693/original/file-20231219-17-i3ffem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C9%2C2038%2C1352&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, had front-row seats at COP28's final session. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unfccc/53394837161/in/album-72177720313353788/">Kiara Worth/UN Climate Change via Flickr,</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Reading down the lengthy <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf">final agreement of the COP28</a> United Nations climate conference held in December 2023, you’ll go a long way before finding a strong, active verb. The lengthy recitation of climate impacts “notes with concern” and occasionally with “significant concern” <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023">glaring gaps</a> in countries’ current policies. But while countries volunteered pledges to act, they were less keen to have those pledges framed as binding agreements in the final text.</p>
<p>Reactions to COP28’s conclusion have been understandably mixed. Going into the talks, the world was <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-is-the-global-stocktake-and-could-it-accelerate-climate-action/">more on track</a> to avert catastrophic warming than it would have been without the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">2015 Paris Agreement</a>, but a long way from where it needs to be.</p>
<p>Even <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-assessment-of-the-evolving-pledges-at-cop28">if all the pledges made at COP28 are implemented</a>, the world will still exceed the Paris goal of keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) compared to preindustrial temperatures.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart shows if all COP28 pledges were met, the world would be closer to the goal of keeping emissions under 1.5 C but not on track." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Climate Action Tracker assessment of countries’ pledges at COP28 to reduce emissions shows progress toward the 2030 goal, but a large gap.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/cop28-initiatives-create-buzz-will-only-reduce-emissions-if-followed-through/">Copyright Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Politically, the agreement may have been the best that nations could reach at this time of <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/age-great-power-distraction-kimmage-notte">rising geopolitical tensions</a> and under the leadership of the United Arab Emirates. The UAE is a country of contradictions – a petrostate with renewable energy ambitions, keen to emerge onto the global stage as a green champion, but also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/30/the-new-scramble-for-africa-how-a-uae-sheikh-quietly-made-carbon-deals-for-forests-bigger-than-uk">accused of colonization tactics</a> in Africa.</p>
<p>Most headlines have focused on the COP28 agreement’s mention of fossil fuels for the first time. The convoluted language called for countries to “<a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf">contribute” to</a> “transitioning away from fossil fuels,” not the phaseout supported by a majority of countries. With an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/05/record-number-of-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-get-access-to-cop28-climate-talks">unprecedented number of energy industry lobbyists</a> on hand, the consensus was described by the most vulnerable countries as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-cop28-failed-the-worlds-small-islands-219938">litany of loopholes</a>.</p>
<p>The final agreement was, in large parts, written in a way to secure the future of the natural gas industry. It portrayed natural gas as a necessary bridge fuel while renewable energy expands, an argument that was <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023">disproved by the International Energy Agency</a> before COP28. The agreement also furthered the expectation of continued heavy subsidies for carbon capture and storage, which many energy analysts and economists have dismissed as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/carbon-capture-removal-cop28-fossil-fuels-oil-gas-2bc53c6a8df6d337c1afcabad56377e8">unscalable at a reasonable cost</a>.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the UAE blasted through some of the old shibboleths of climate negotiation. It broke the polarity of climate finance – the Global South waiting for the Global North to fulfill its promises of public finance – by <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/10/what-is-alterra-the-uaes-30-billion-green-investment-fund/">focusing on private investment</a> and putting tens of billions of dollars of its sovereign wealth into play. It was not able to persuade others to match its generosity, but there will be more pressure in 2024.</p>
<p>So, what should we look for in the coming months?</p>
<h2>1. Turning new energy pledges into action</h2>
<p>COP28 included <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/af71fc48-b89f-4920-a35b-2867b7adcc0c">significant commitments toward an energy transition</a> away from fossil fuels, including pledges to triple <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/global-renewables-and-energy-efficiency-pledge">renewable energy capacity, increase energy efficiency</a> and cut <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/2/at-cop28-oil-companies-pledge-to-lower-methane-emissions">methane emissions</a>.</p>
<p>Now it’s up to countries and companies to show progress. That will depend on investments and overcoming supply bottlenecks, as well as new policies and, in the case of methane, <a href="https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/how-international-agreement-methane-emissions-can-pave-way-enhanced">standards for imports and exports</a>.</p>
<p>The new <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-cooling-pledge">Global Cooling Pledge</a> to reduce emissions from cooling by 68% while increasing access to cooling technology is increasingly critical. <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/buildings/space-cooling">Demand for cooling is driving up energy demand</a> across the globe, particularly in populous countries hard hit by extreme heat, such as India. Developing technologies that help the billions of people most at risk and improve cold supply chains for food and medicine will require more investment and greater priority from governments.</p>
<p>Watch for <a href="https://www.climateresilience.org/">more cities to appoint heat czars</a> to spearhead efforts to protect populations from extreme heat, <a href="https://time.com/6336537/america-tree-equity-urban-climate-solution/">adoption of tree equity plans</a> to increase shade and cooling, and more investment in cooling technologies.</p>
<h2>2. Deploying innovations in finance</h2>
<p>COP28 saw significant innovation in finance, including the UAE’s announcement of the Alterra Fund – a <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/10/what-is-alterra-the-uaes-30-billion-green-investment-fund/">$30 billion commitment</a> to mobilize private investment in developing countries.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.iosco.org/news/pdf/IOSCONEWS717.pdf">International Organization of Securities Commissions</a> sent a strong statement in support of <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/groups/international-sustainability-standards-board/">corporate sustainability disclosure standards</a> and welcomed <a href="https://icvcm.org/icvcm-and-vcmi-join-forces-to-operationalize-a-high-integrity-market-to-accelerate-global-climate-action/">corporate integrity standards in the voluntary carbon markets</a>. Look for more countries to add rules around <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">“net-zero emissions” pledges</a>.</p>
<h2>3. Putting trade to work for the climate</h2>
<p>Linked to finance and investment is trade, which <a href="https://www.thebanker.com/How-trade-and-trade-finance-can-assist-the-transition-to-net-zero-1701941013">COP28 welcomed</a> to the main stage for the first time.</p>
<p>There are two things to look for in 2024. First, look for the World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to align their advice to governments on effective carbon pricing.</p>
<p>Second, while trade and climate negotiators traditionally move in different circles, they will <a href="https://earth.org/free-trade-agreement/">need to work together</a> to ensure the trade system supports climate action. For example, making sure green products and services are not made more expensive than their polluting alternatives.</p>
<h2>4. Fixing the carbon markets</h2>
<p>2023 was a year of pushback on the voluntary carbon markets, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe">investigations questioned their effectiveness</a>. COP28’s failure to advance agreements on carbon markets under <a href="https://www.undp.org/energy/blog/what-article-6-paris-agreement-and-why-it-important">Article 6 of the Paris Agreement</a> means they will be a focus in 2024.</p>
<p>In this case, <a href="https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2023/12/13/cop28-article-6-failure-avoids-a-worse-outcome/">no deal was better than a bad deal</a>, but the delay means countries that plan to use carbon markets to meet their net-zero targets are left with uncertainty.</p>
<h2>5. Getting more adaptation funding where it’s needed</h2>
<p>An agreement on a global goal on adaptation, a collective commitment to build resilience and adaptive capacity across the world, was finally reached, but negotiators left the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-what-would-an-ambitious-global-goal-on-adaptation-look-like-at-cop28/">details to be filled in over the next two years</a>.</p>
<p>To get adaptation funding flowing to where it is most needed, top-down discussions will need to start, including <a href="https://www.wri.org/initiatives/locally-led-adaptation/principles-locally-led-adaptation">locally led efforts</a>. Look for adaptation to become a much bigger part of countries’ second-generation climate plans to be submitted to the U.N. before COP30.</p>
<h2>6. Turning new food and ag pledges into action</h2>
<p>A majority of the world’s countries, 159, signed the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/food-and-agriculture">UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action</a>. They agreed to include food systems, which contribute a significant percentage of global emissions and which are fundamental to adaptation and resilience, in the next generation of climate plans to be submitted to the U.N.</p>
<p>The pledge was thin on details, however, so how each country turns words into actions will be crucial in 2024.</p>
<h2>The next big climate milestones</h2>
<p>In late 2024, COP29 will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan – another oil-producing nation. The focus will be on finance. But the <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era">next big milestone is in 2025</a>, when governments must submit their future pledges and plans for reducing emissions.</p>
<p>COP30 is to be held in Belen in the Brazilian state of Para – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">frontline of Amazon protection</a>. This will bring a focus on nature-based solutions, but from the perspective of the Global South. President Lula da Silva, who is also the host of the G20 in 2024, wants to see change in the international trade and finance system to reflect shifts in the global economy.</p>
<p>COP28 set forth important initiatives but balked at binding commitments. As countries work on their next generation of plans to try to get the world on track to limit global warming, they will have to consider the whole of their economies and cover all greenhouse gases. The world can’t afford to balk twice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Kyte is affiliated with VCMI - Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative, and Climate Resilience for All CRA</span></em></p>The UN climate conference brought some progress. A former UN official who has been involved in international climate policy for years explains what has to happen now for that progress to pay off.Rachel Kyte, Visiting Professor of Practice, Blavatnik School of Government, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199582023-12-18T03:20:04Z2023-12-18T03:20:04ZIsrael-Hamas war: a ceasefire is now in sight. Will Israel’s prime minister agree?<p>The mistaken killing of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-16/israel-kills-hostages-mistakenly-in-gaza/103237282">three Israeli hostages</a> by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) at the weekend has substantially increased pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire in the war against Hamas.</p>
<p>The Biden administration is exerting maximum pressure to convince the Israeli government that the downsides of its prosecution of the war, particularly the shockingly high Palestinian civilian death toll, now outweigh the potential gains.</p>
<p>During a visit to Israel earlier this month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Netanyahu and his cabinet they would have to <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/12/14/israels-current-large-scale-operation-is-the-last-one-in-gaza">end the offensive</a> by the new year. </p>
<p>National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited Israel on the weekend to deliver the same message, emphasising that the US wanted to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna130070">see results</a> on its demands to Israel to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza.</p>
<p>Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin is currently on a trip to the Middle East, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna130070">including a stopover</a> in Israel to discuss the “eventual cessation of high-intensity ground operations and air strikes”. </p>
<p>Earlier in the month, Austin <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4339335-lloyd-austin-israel-risks-defeat-if-civilians-not-protected/#:%7E:text=Defense-,Israel%20risks%20'strategic%20defeat'%20if%20civilians%20aren',t%20protected%2C%20Pentagon%20chief%20says&text=Secretary%20of%20Defense%20Lloyd%20Austin,group%20Hamas%20in%20the%20region.">warned</a> that Israel’s killing of Palestinian civilians risked driving them into the arms of the enemy – replacing “a tactical victory with a strategic defeat”.</p>
<p>Finally President Joe Biden, who won enormous kudos in Israel for his visit in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attacks on October 7, has <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/biden-israel-losing-support-netanyahu/index.html#:%7E:text=Rifts%20between%20the%20United%20States,plans%20for%20post%2Dwar%20Gaza.">publicly warned</a> that Israel’s “indiscriminate bombing” of Gaza is losing it international support.</p>
<p>The US, if not Israel (which regards the UN as biased against it) will be concerned at the UN General Assembly vote on December 12 demanding a ceasefire. Though the resolution is non-enforceable, the large majority – 153 of the 190 members – was a clear indication of growing international opposition to the war. </p>
<p>The majority in favour of a similar resolution in October was 120. The US stood out as the only UN Security Council member to vote against the December resolution.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-us-israel-relationship-is-in-period-of-transition-as-biden-says-israel-is-losing-support-219571">Gaza war: US-Israel relationship is in period of transition as Biden says Israel is losing support</a>
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<h2>Israeli forces credibility reduced</h2>
<p>To underline these messages, a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/13/politics/intelligence-assessment-dumb-bombs-israel-gaza/index.html">leaked US intelligence assessment</a> has claimed 40-45% of the 29,000 air-to-surface ground munitions Israel has used in Gaza have been “dumb” (unguided) bombs. This disclosure effectively undercuts the Israel Defense Force’s claim that its strikes have been only at <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/israel-hamas-engage-in-fierce-battles-in-gaza-s-biggest-cities-/7389468.html">proven Hamas targets</a>.</p>
<p>Details of the accidental killing of the three hostages, as they have emerged at the weekend, further reduce the credibility of the Israeli forces’ claims to be operating with full regard to international humanitarian law. The three were holding <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israeli-army-says-it-mistakenly-shot-and-killed-three-hostages-20231216-p5erwi.html">a white cloth</a>, had their hands in the air and were calling to the soldiers in Hebrew.</p>
<p>An Israeli Defense Force official has said the case was “against our rules of engagement” and an <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67738111">investigation was happening</a> at the “highest level”.</p>
<p>The tragedy has given renewed impetus to the campaign by families of the more than 100 remaining hostages and their numerous supporters. They want the government to prioritise negotiations for the release of the captives over the war against Hamas. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/video/hundreds-protest-in-tel-aviv-after-idf-mistakenly-kills-3-hostages-200358981517">Demonstrations took place</a> in Tel Aviv after news of the three hostages’ deaths.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-the-us-israel-special-relationship-shows-how-connections-have-shifted-since-long-before-the-1948-founding-of-the-jewish-state-215781">A brief history of the US-Israel 'special relationship' shows how connections have shifted since long before the 1948 founding of the Jewish state</a>
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<p>So far Netanyahu and his Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, are holding firm that the operation to destroy Hamas must continue. Gallant has said that only <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/gaza-war-puts-pressure-on-hamas-to-free-more-hostages-gallant-tells-families/#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CWhen%20the%20military%20operations%20advance,%2C%E2%80%9D%20Gallant%20told%20the%20families.">intense military pressure</a> on Hamas will create conditions for release of more hostages.</p>
<h2>Netanyahu likely to continue the conflict</h2>
<p>Netanyahu has a number of reasons for continuing the war. </p>
<p>In the inevitable postwar inquiry into the security lapses that led to the horrific Hamas attack on October 7, major blame is certain be laid on him. That inquiry won’t be held while the war proceeds. </p>
<p>But Netanyahu will be aware that his only chance of avoiding the sort of withering criticism that would force him from office is to make good on his pledge to totally eliminate Hamas, and to find and recover the remaining hostages. That will take much more time than Biden seems willing to allow him.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for Netanyahu, he cannot yet claim victory on the basis of decapitating the Hamas leadership. The movement’s political ruler in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and its military leader, Mohammed Deif, are still at large. They’re probably somewhere in the vast tunnel network beneath Gaza. If Israel were to capture or kill these two, Netanyahu would be able to claim substantial vindication.</p>
<p>The Biden administration’s pressure is of less concern to Netanyahu. He is practised at staring down US presidents, particularly Democratic ones. In <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1157889/">2009</a> he defied President Barack Obama’s call for a freeze on settlement building in the West Bank.</p>
<p>In 2015 he even <a href="https://time.com/3678657/obama-netanyahu-washington/">breached protocol</a> by accepting a Republican invitation to visit Washington to address a joint sitting of Congress without calling on Obama.</p>
<p>Within Israel, Netanyahu is helped by the fact that Israelis have only a partial picture of the human toll their country’s campaign is having on Palestinian civilians. </p>
<p>The ABC Global Affairs Editor, John Lyons, who was based in Jerusalem for many years and understands Hebrew, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-10/israel-gaza-media-watching-a-sanitised-war/103206528">reported</a> after a recent visit to Israel:</p>
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<p>[…] most Israelis do not see pictures (on their televisions) of injured Palestinian women and children or the destruction of Gaza into kilometre after kilometre of rubble […] Israelis are watching a sanitised war […] They are bewildered at why the world is increasingly uncomfortable at the high civilian casualty rate.</p>
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<h2>Resumption of hostage negotiations</h2>
<p>That said, Netanyahu has bowed to the hostages lobby by reversing a decision that the head of Mossad, David Barnea, should cease negotiations in Qatar for more hostage releases. Barnea met Qatar’s prime minister in Europe <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/benjamin-netanyahu-hints-at-new-hostage-negotiations-with-hamas/cfjriz264">last week</a>. No details were available at time of writing. </p>
<p>But Hamas continues to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/17/israel-faces-new-calls-for-truce-after-killing-of-hostages-raises-alarm-about-its-conduct-in-gaza.html">make demands</a> that Israel would find hard to accept: no further hostage releases until the war ends; and insistence that a deal would involve release of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including high-profile militants.</p>
<p>In the background, a worry for both Israel and the US is that support for Hamas has risen substantially in the West Bank since the war started. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/under-pressure-netanyahu-agrees-to-a-ceasefire-and-hostage-deal-with-hamas-are-his-days-now-numbered-218348">Under pressure, Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas. Are his days now numbered?</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/961">Polling</a> between November 22 and December 2 by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research indicated that backing for Hamas had risen from 12% in September to 44% at the beginning of December. This is shown also in the number of green Hamas flags in evidence when Palestinian prisoners were freed during the pauses in fighting in late November.</p>
<p>The polling even showed that support for Hamas in Gaza over the same period had risen from 38% to 42%.</p>
<p>Netanyahu may get lucky if his forces find Sinwar and Deif. In the meantime, a decision on continuation of the war rests with him.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219958/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The mistaken killing of three Israeli hostages by the Israeli Defense Forces at the weekend has substantially increased pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire.Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199282023-12-14T15:40:32Z2023-12-14T15:40:32ZGaza update: deadlock in the UN security council means no relief for suffering Palestinian civilians<p>Day by day, as Israel continues its assault on Gaza, the death toll mounts. According to the Gaza health ministry more than 18,500 people have now been killed in the Israeli army’s air and ground assault – and the Israel Defence Forces have lost 115 personnel, including ten killed on December 12. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the UN seems incapable of any effective response. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, invoked Article 99 of the UN charter last week for only the sixth time in the body’s history, to force the security council to discuss the conflict as a matter that “may aggravate existing threats to the maintenance of international peace and security”. But still, despite overwhelming support for a ceasefire in resolutions voted on by the general assembly, the US has once again wielded its veto in the security council.</p>
<p>Emma McClean, an expert in international law at the University of Westminster, believes that the geopolitical considerations driving the US, UK and France on the one hand and Russia and China on the other means that the security council is now at deadlock and the UN has <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-deadlock-in-the-security-council-shows-that-the-un-is-no-longer-fit-for-purpose-219772">exhausted all its options</a> for meaningful action. In the face of Israeli intransigence over a ceasefire, the UN is now powerless to act, she says.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-deadlock-in-the-security-council-shows-that-the-un-is-no-longer-fit-for-purpose-219772">Gaza war: deadlock in the security council shows that the UN is no longer fit for purpose</a>
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<p>But, to a large extent, Israel’s intransigence is dependent on the support of Washington. And Joe Biden has now made it fairly clear that, while he backs Israel in its fight to eradicate Hamas as a military and political force, it’s not a blank cheque. Biden has his own political interests to consider with an election race looming next year. He is currently trailing the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump, and so must take his own voting base into account. </p>
<p>Dafydd Townley, a US politics expert at the University of Portsmouth, says that thus far the issue is not featuring as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-us-israel-relationship-is-in-period-of-transition-as-biden-says-israel-is-losing-support-219571">major election issue</a> just yet. But as costs mount and US television audiences see day by day reports focusing on the humanitarian disaster unfolding in Gaza, Biden is likely to want to put a degree of distance between himself and Benjamin Netanyahu.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-us-israel-relationship-is-in-period-of-transition-as-biden-says-israel-is-losing-support-219571">Gaza war: US-Israel relationship is in period of transition as Biden says Israel is losing support</a>
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<p>It doesn’t help that Netanyahu and some of his political allies are indulging in rhetoric that – while appealing to Israeli hawks – could be seen as tantamount to threatening ethnic cleansing in Gaza. When he announced the beginning of the land assault on the Strip on October 27, the Israeli prime minister made a sinister allusion to a Bible story: “‘You must remember what Amalek has done to you,’ says our Holy Bible.” Amalek crops up several times in the Bible – usually in an apocalyptic frame of reference: “Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass.”</p>
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<p><em>Gaza Update is available as a fortnightly email newsletter. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/gaza-update-159?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Gaza">Click here to get our updates directly in your inbox</a>.</em></p>
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<p>The agriculture minister, Avi Dichter, referred to the assault on the Gaza Strip as “Gaza Nakba 2023”. This is a direct reference to what Palestinians call “the Nakba”, or “the catastrophe” in 1948, when armed Zionist militias systematically destroyed Palestinian cities and towns and forced 750,000 people to flee their land. Afaf Jabiri, an expert in Middle East politics at the University of East London, writes that – in effect – the vast majority of displaced people in Gaza have already been <a href="https://theconversation.com/attack-on-gaza-israeli-rhetoric-fuels-fears-of-ethnic-cleansing-as-idf-assault-continues-to-push-south-218727">forced from their homes once</a> and were living in refugee camps. Now there are few safe places for them to flee to.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/attack-on-gaza-israeli-rhetoric-fuels-fears-of-ethnic-cleansing-as-idf-assault-continues-to-push-south-218727">Attack on Gaza: Israeli rhetoric fuels fears of ethnic cleansing as IDF assault continues to push south</a>
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<h2>The Israeli perspective</h2>
<p>While the IDF’s assault on Gaza has the support of the majority of the people in Israel, its architect – the prime minister – does not. John Strawson, an expert in Israeli politics from the University of East London, has recently returned from a trip to Israel and writes that he found people <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-israelis-feel-angry-at-their-government-and-abandoned-by-the-international-community-219425">angry at their government</a> and a widespread feeling that the international community has abandoned Israel since October 7 and is focusing on the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza rather than the 135 hostages still believed to be held in Gaza.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-israelis-feel-angry-at-their-government-and-abandoned-by-the-international-community-219425">Gaza war: Israelis feel angry at their government and abandoned by the international community</a>
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<p>Many women in particular were angry at the international feminist movement for what they perceive as a lack of solidarity over the rapes and other sexual crimes committed against women during the Hamas assault. Dyan Mazurana and Anastasia Marshak of Tufts University in the US are scholars who work directly with victims of war-related sexual violence and other serious crimes. </p>
<p>They believe that some experts may have hesitated because <a href="https://theconversation.com/hamas-use-of-sexual-violence-is-an-all-too-common-part-of-modern-war-but-not-in-all-conflicts-219301">Hamas hasn’t been known in the past</a> to use sexual violence in its attacks against Israeli civilians. “These violent acts suggest an intent to utterly destroy their victims, while also terrorizing the Israeli public and humiliating Israeli men, Israel’s military and the state of Israel,” they write, adding that given the level of planning involved in the October 7 attacks, it’s highly unlikely that the use of sexual violence was not part of Hamas’s strategy.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/hamas-use-of-sexual-violence-is-an-all-too-common-part-of-modern-war-but-not-in-all-conflicts-219301">Hamas' use of sexual violence is an all-too-common part of modern war − but not in all conflicts</a>
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<p>As Israel continues its push south the death toll will almost certainly include hostages. And, as Leonie Fleischmann of City University of London notes, its almost certain that Hamas will drive a harder bargain for their release than they exacted during the humanitarian pause in Gaza. In 2011, Israel released 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, including 300 who had killed Israelis, in exchange for just one Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, who had been held captive for five years.</p>
<p>But as she <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-what-do-we-know-about-the-hostage-prisoner-exchanges-and-are-they-likely-to-resume-218889?notice=Article+has+been+updated.">notes here</a>, the ferocity of Israel’s ground offensive will make it very difficult for any further prisoner-hostage swaps unless there is a further pause or even a ceasefire – which remains unlikely as things stand.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-what-do-we-know-about-the-hostage-prisoner-exchanges-and-are-they-likely-to-resume-218889">Gaza war: what do we know about the hostage-prisoner exchanges and are they likely to resume?</a>
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<h2>Peace in prospect?</h2>
<p>Despite US pressure as noted above, Israel is said to want a further two months to complete its military operation on the Gaza Strip. And the question of what happens afterwards remains opaque. Julien Tourreille and Charles-Philippe David of the University of Quebec in Montreal believe that the least worst option might be to set up some kind of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-should-consider-a-transitional-administration-for-gaza-219476">transitional authority there</a> – similar to arrangements that brought an end to fighting in East Timor and Kosovo in the 1990s.</p>
<p>But this would, of course, involve an agreement in the UN security council. You can make your own judgement about how likely is to happen.</p>
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<p>The big fear throughout this crisis has been that it might escalate into a regional war, bringing in Lebanon and Iran. And there are daily reports of attacks by Hezbollah fighters on Israeli positions, while in Iraq and Syria, US military bases have been targeted by Iran-backed militias.</p>
<p>Bashir Saade, an expert in Middle East politics and religion at the University of Stirling, evaluates Hezbollah’s strategy as spelled out recently in speeches by its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah’s aim, <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-how-hezbollah-has-opened-a-second-front-inside-israel-216391">he writes</a>, is to force Israel to fight on two fronts and inside its own borders. Meanwhile, regular attacks on US bases in the region by Hezbollah and other armed Islamist groups will encourage the US to put pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire. Again, how this plays out remains to be seen.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-how-hezbollah-has-opened-a-second-front-inside-israel-216391">Gaza war: how Hezbollah has opened a second front inside Israel</a>
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<p><em>Gaza Update is available as a fortnightly email newsletter. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/gaza-update-159?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Gaza">Click here to get our updates directly in your inbox</a>.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219928/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A selection of analysis from our coverage of the war in Gaza over the past fortnight.Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199042023-12-14T09:44:49Z2023-12-14T09:44:49ZGrattan on Friday: Albanese government comes under more heat as it tries to navigate its position on Gaza conflict<p>For an issue in which Australia is not a player and has no direct influence, the Israel-Hamas conflict is putting serious strain on the Albanese government, internally and externally. </p>
<p>Its decision this week to vote for the United Nations resolution that “demands an immediate humanitarian ceasefire” may ease the pressure from some of Labor’s internal pro-Palestinian advocates. But it has sharpened the external criticism from the pro-Israel lobby, including prompting some sharp words from the Israeli ambassador. </p>
<p>Among Labor’s rank and file, Palestine has long been a trigger point. Years ago, Anthony Albanese was co-founder of the parliamentary friends of Palestine. Members of Albanese’s own branch in his inner Sydney electorate of Grayndler recently accused Israel of “acts of retribution on an innocent Palestinian population”. </p>
<p>From the start of the current conflict the government, in its condemnation of the Hamas attack and its support for Israel’s right to defend itself, emphasised the need for “restraint”. That brought it some (unreasonable) criticism from the opposition. As it has sought to minimise the community tensions within Australia, it has been careful to warn against Islamophobia when condemning rising antisemitism. </p>
<p>Watching this war in constant real time, the world has been witnessing terrible images from Gaza. The extent of civilian deaths and suffering has eroded some of the initial support Israel had in the international community after Hamas’ appalling October 7 attack. </p>
<p>The Australian government has become increasingly explicit in its concern about the human cost of the conflict, culminating in this week’s UN vote. Only in October Australia abstained on an earlier resolution (which was looser and didn’t make specific reference to the hostages).</p>
<p>But the government this week also muddied its position by suggesting it hasn’t actually changed. It pointed to a statement, issued shortly before the vote, by Albanese and the Canadian and New Zealand prime ministers. This was driven by Australia, and Albanese had been working on it for weeks. The statement was more even-handed than the UN resolution. In particular, it condemned Hamas, which the resolution did not.</p>
<p>The UN vote saw Australia at odds with the US, which opposed the resolution. The divergence is notable but not a huge deal. Australia was among more than 150 countries supporting the resolution. The US was one of only a handful opposing. </p>
<p>The US always stands with Israel, but both behind the scenes and in public it has been delivering warnings and appeals to Israel to limit civilian deaths. </p>
<p>The difference in voting is unlikely to make ripples in the Australia-US relationship. Albanese and Joe Biden, after their extensive contact in multiple meetings, seem well bonded. The government has been readying to celebrate the US passage of enabling legislation for AUKUS. </p>
<p>Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong took the decision on the UN vote. It did not go to the cabinet’s national security committee, let alone the full cabinet, although some senior ministers were consulted. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has confirmed he was one of those.</p>
<p>Australia’s shift in its UN position has been driven by both the developing situation in the conflict and Labor’s internal and electoral politics. </p>
<p>The Albanese ministry has been publicly very disciplined on almost everything but cabinet solidity has fractured to a degree over this conflict. Industry Minister Ed Husic, a Muslim, has been particularly forthright in condemning what’s happening to civilians in Gaza. Tony Burke and Jason Clare have reflected the feelings of their many pro-Palestinian constituents. </p>
<p>Mike Freelander, a Labor backbencher from southwestern Sydney, has found himself caught each way. He’s Jewish and has a big Muslim population in his seat of Macarthur.</p>
<p>Freelander is fully on board with the government shifting its position at the UN, saying Albanese and Wong “had to do something”. He says he believes “strongly in Israel defending itself and the need for the hostages being released – however what is happening in Gaza is horrific”.</p>
<p>His local Muslim community – 10% of his constituents are Muslim – has been urging him to advocate for a ceasefire. “I’ve met with them and we all agree that it’s very important we stop this carnage.”</p>
<p>Josh Burns, member for the Victorian seat of Macnamara, also Jewish, is one of two Labor members on a cross-party delegation that visited Israel this week. He’s very critical of the UN resolution not targeting Hamas (a US amendment that would have rectified that failed to get support). </p>
<p>Burns provides a sharp reality check. The UN resolution “couldn’t be less relevant to the people here on the ground,” he told the ABC. </p>
<p>He added:“The fighting is going to continue. Hamas is not laying down its weapons. Hamas is not returning hostages. Hamas is still in control of the Gaza Strip.</p>
<p>"Israel is still committed to removing Hamas from power, and Israel is still committed to the return of hostages. So the UN can pass resolutions but those two key factors haven’t changed on the ground.”</p>
<p>For the broad Australian population – leaving aside the Jewish and Muslim communities – the conflict is not likely to have significant political cut through. In an Essential poll published mid-November, 62% thought Australia should stay out of it entirely. People did worry about potential local fallout – 63% were concerned the war could trigger hostility between Palestinian and Israeli communities in Australia. The poll also found those believing Israel’s response was proportionate had fallen from 42% in October to 35% in November. </p>
<p>Australia could get somewhat closer to the action if it accepts a US request to provide a warship to take part in monitoring in the Red Sea to protect commercial shipping against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. The government is presently exploring how seriously the US is making this request, which at this stage has come at officials’ level. </p>
<p>On Thursday Defence Minister Richard Marles appeared to pour a dash of cold water on the idea, telling a news conference, “We’ll consider that request in the normal way. I want to emphasise the focus of our efforts is on our immediate region.”</p>
<p>Next month Wong will go to the Middle East, visiting Israel and as many other countries as can be arranged. It’s a mark of how regionally-centred Australia’s policy is that this will be the peripatetic foreign minister’s first trip to the Middle East since taking office.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219904/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The recent vote in the United Nations on the Israel-Hamas conflict puts serious strain on the Albanese government, internally and externally writes Michelle Grattan, who dissects the governments response.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.