tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/urban-infrastructure-6743/articlesUrban infrastructure – The Conversation2024-03-27T03:59:18Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2267162024-03-27T03:59:18Z2024-03-27T03:59:18ZBaltimore bridge collapse: a bridge engineer explains what happened, and what needs to change<p>When the container ship MV Dali, 300 metres long and massing around 100,000 tonnes, lost power and slammed into one of the support piers of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_(Baltimore)">Francis Scott Key Bridge</a> in Baltimore, the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baltimore-bridge-collapse-53169b379820032f832de4016c655d1b">bridge collapsed in moments</a>. Six people are presumed dead, several others injured, and the city and region are expecting a months-long logistical nightmare in the absence of a crucial transport link.</p>
<p>It was a shocking event, not only for the public but for bridge engineers like me. We work very hard to ensure bridges are safe, and overall the probability of being injured or worse in a bridge collapse remains <a href="https://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/10.1680/feng.13.00021">even lower</a> than the chance of being struck by lightning.</p>
<p>However, the images from Baltimore are a reminder that safety can’t be taken for granted. We need to remain vigilant. </p>
<p>So why did this bridge collapse? And, just as importantly, how might we make other bridges more safe against such collapse?</p>
<h2>A 20th century bridge meets a 21st century ship</h2>
<p>The Francis Scott Key Bridge was built through the mid 1970s and opened in 1977. The main structure over the navigation channel is a “continuous truss bridge” in three sections or spans.</p>
<p>The bridge rests on four supports, two of which sit each side of the navigable waterway. It is these two piers that are critical to protect against ship impacts.</p>
<p>And indeed, there were two layers of protection: a so-called “dolphin” structure made from concrete, and a fender. The dolphins are in the water about 100 metres upstream and downstream of the piers. They are intended to be sacrificed in the event of a wayward ship, absorbing its energy and being deformed in the process but keeping the ship from hitting the bridge itself.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram of a bridge" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=120&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=120&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=120&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=151&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=151&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=151&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, showing the pier struck by the cargo ship and the sections of bridge which collapsed as a result.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_collapse#/media/File:2024_Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_collapse.svg">F Vasconcellos / Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>The fender is the last layer of protection. It is a structure made of timber and reinforced concrete placed around the main piers. Again, it is intended to absorb the energy of any impact.</p>
<p>Fenders are not intended to <a href="https://iabse.org/Sys/Store/Products/296602">absorb impacts from very large vessels</a>. And so when the MV Dali, weighing more than 100,000 tonnes, made it past the protective dolphins, it was simply far too massive for the fender to withstand.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ive-captained-ships-into-tight-ports-like-baltimore-and-this-is-how-captains-like-me-work-with-harbor-pilots-to-avoid-deadly-collisions-226700">I've captained ships into tight ports like Baltimore, and this is how captains like me work with harbor pilots to avoid deadly collisions</a>
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<p>Video recordings show a cloud of dust appearing just before the bridge collapsed, which may well have been the fender disintegrating as it was crushed by the ship.</p>
<p>Once the massive ship had made it past both the dolphin and the fender, the pier – one of the bridge’s four main supports – was simply incapable of resisting the impact. Given the size of the vessel and its likely speed of around 8 knots (15 kilometres per hour), the impact force would have been <a href="https://iabse.org/Sys/Store/Products/296602">around 20,000 tonnes</a>.</p>
<h2>Bridges are getting safer</h2>
<p>This was not the first time a ship hit the Francis Scott Bridge. There was <a href="https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA135602.pdf">another collision in 1980</a>, damaging a fender badly enough that it had to be replaced. </p>
<p>Around the world, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/bridge-collapses-barges-list-1f2d6261d523ddc625aaaf3b32c626bc">35 major bridge collapses resulting in fatalities</a> were caused by collisions between 1960 and 2015, according to a 2018 report from the World Association for Waterborne Transport Infrastructure. Collisions between ships and bridges in the 1970s and early 1980s led to a significant improvement in the design rules for protecting bridges from impact.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A greenish book cover with the title Ship Collision With Bridges." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=883&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=883&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=883&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1110&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1110&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1110&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Guidelines like this have played a crucial role in improved bridge safety.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://iabse.org/Sys/Store/Products/296602">IABSE</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-73833-8">Further impacts</a> in the 1970s and early 1980s instigated significant improvements in the design rules for impact. </p>
<p>The International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering’s <a href="https://iabse.org/Sys/Store/Products/296602">Ship Collision with Bridges</a> guide, published in 1993, and the American Association of State Highway and Transporation Officials’ <a href="https://store.transportation.org/Item/PublicationDetail?ID=1346">Guide Specification and Commentary for Vessel Collision Design of Highway Bridges</a> (1991) changed how bridges were designed.</p>
<p>In Australia, the <a href="https://www.standards.org.au/standards-catalogue/standard-details?designation=as-5100-2-2017">Australian Standard for Bridge Design</a> (published in 2017) requires designers to think about the biggest vessel likely to come along in the next 100 years, and what would happen if it were heading for any bridge pier at full speed. Designers need to consider the result of both head-on collisions and side-on, glancing blows. As a result, many newer bridges protect their piers with entire human-made islands.</p>
<p>Of course, these improvements came too late to influence the design of the Francis Scott Key Bridge itself.</p>
<h2>Lessons from disaster</h2>
<p>So what are the lessons apparent at this early stage? </p>
<p>First, it’s clear the protection measures in place for this bridge were not enough to handle this ship impact. Today’s cargo ships are much bigger than those of the 1970s, and it seems likely the Francis Scott Key Bridge was not designed with a collision like this in mind.</p>
<p>So one lesson is that we need to consider how the vessels near our bridges are changing. This means we cannot just accept the structure as it was built, but ensure the protection measures around our bridges are evolving alongside the ships around them.</p>
<p>Second, and more generally, we must remain vigilant in managing our bridges. I’ve written <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-australian-bridges-safe-and-can-we-do-better-101825">previously</a> about the current level of safety of Australian bridges, but also about how we can do better. </p>
<p>This tragic event only emphasises the need to spend more on maintaining our ageing infrastructure. This is the only way to ensure it remains safe and functional for the demands we put on it today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226716/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Caprani receives funding from the Department of Transport (Victoria) and the Level Crossing Removal Project. He is also Chair of the Confidential Reporting Scheme for Safer Structures - Australasia, Chair of the Australian Regional Group of the Institution of Structural Engineers, and Australian National Delegate for the International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering.</span></em></p>Bridges are getting safer – but their designers need to keep up with the ever-growing size of cargo ships.Colin Caprani, Associate Professor, Civil Engineering, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2169842023-12-03T13:27:45Z2023-12-03T13:27:45ZWhy Canada’s Smart Cities Challenge is missing the mark<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561611/original/file-20231124-25-nmarof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1121%2C0%2C5620%2C3495&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Smart Cities Challenge is designed to address complex economic, environmental and social problems.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-canadas-smart-cities-challenge-is-missing-the-mark" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The Canadian federal government launched the <a href="https://impact.canada.ca/en/node/117">Smart Cities Challenge in 2017</a> to award up to $50 million to municipal governments that are best able to leverage technology to improve life in their cities. </p>
<p>The challenge is part of the government’s <a href="https://impact.canada.ca/en/about">Impact Canada Initiative</a>, which aims to address complex economic, environmental and social problems across the country. </p>
<p>During the challenge, hundreds of municipalities from across Canada submit their ideas for improving their communities. The <a href="https://impact.canada.ca/en/challenges/smart-cities/results">winners receive grants</a> to further develop their innovative ideas into final proposals. <a href="https://montreal.ca/en/articles/montreal-common-city-laboratory-15119">Montréal in Common</a> is the result of the city winning the grand prize $50 million in 2019.</p>
<p>After four years, the government is planning on hosting the second round of the challenge. <a href="https://www.budget.canada.ca/2023/pdf/budget-2023-en.pdf">This year’s federal budget quietly allocated funds</a> for the next one to be announced later this year, the details of which are currently sparse.</p>
<p>If we have learned anything in the interim, it’s that “smart cities” are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/9781787691391">rarely as intelligent and beneficial as the idea seems</a>, and often prioritize <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262538589/too-smart/">private companies’ profit over social good</a>.</p>
<h2>‘Smart cities’ terminology</h2>
<p>The Smart Cities Challenge is missing the mark on a few key fronts. First is the term itself — the very origins of the term “smart city” are a private sector marketing gimmick. When <a href="https://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/">IBM coined the phrase “smarter cities” in 2009</a>, it referred less to intelligence and more to <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/research/2019/06/smart-cities-dreams-capable-of-becoming-nightmares/">the specific set of technologies</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsu011">IBM wanted to sell</a>. </p>
<p>It is clear that this kind of tech firm marketing <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-rio-de-janeiro-a-test-for-the-intelligence-of-smart-cities/">continues to influence</a> how city administrators approach urban problems. Framing urban problems in a way that suggests they can be resolved solely through technical solutions often overlooks the underlying causes of these issues.</p>
<p>For example, if a city government treats homelessness as an issue of <a href="https://www.homelesshub.ca/blog/can-artificial-intelligence-help-end-homelessness">missing data</a> or a <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2020/09/access-to-mobile-technology-could-help-to-alleviate.html">WiFi connectivity gap</a>, rather than a result of soaring housing costs, degrading tenants’ rights and labour precarity, then homelessness will inevitably persist. While businesses may profit by offering technology “solutions,” the core issues remain unaddressed.</p>
<p>Instead, urban problems need to be treated as deeply rooted political issues requiring deliberation, political struggle and democratic empowerment.</p>
<h2>Focusing on community needs</h2>
<p>Although public spending on the next challenge will shape Canadian cities for generations, there is little transparency about the process, and less accountability than should be expected. If you search for information about the new challenge you will come up empty-handed — let alone if you try to get involved. </p>
<p>Contrast this with Barcelona’s smart city approach, which, while <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098019872119">not perfect</a>, has made <a href="https://www.here.com/learn/blog/barcelona-smart-city-2020">e-democracy central to its smart city plan</a>. </p>
<p>E-democracy uses technology to address some of the foundational limits of democratic participation, like <a href="https://www.populismstudies.org/Vocabulary/e-democracy/">problems of scale, limited time availability, declining community engagement and a lack of opportunities for policy deliberation</a>.</p>
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<img alt="A waterfront city at dusk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561610/original/file-20231124-27-gk8c2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561610/original/file-20231124-27-gk8c2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561610/original/file-20231124-27-gk8c2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561610/original/file-20231124-27-gk8c2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561610/original/file-20231124-27-gk8c2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561610/original/file-20231124-27-gk8c2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561610/original/file-20231124-27-gk8c2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Canada should take inspiration from cities like Barcelona that are attempting to use a more democratic approach to smart city planning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The high-profile debacle of <a href="https://www.sidewalklabs.com/toronto">Sidewalk Toronto</a> serves as a cautionary tale for what can happen when smart city projects are distracted by the allure of smartness, instead of focusing on community needs.</p>
<p>Sidewalk Labs is an New York-based urban planning firm that set out to develop a neighbourhood in Toronto. The project was plagued by a <a href="https://biancawylie.medium.com/sidewalk-toronto-the-plan-a-final-note-on-its-history-method-and-trajectory-9bdcb22e7088">variety of problems</a>, including an <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/sidewalk-labs-urban-data-trust-is-problematic-says-ontario-privacy-commissioner/article_ae44fec0-2180-58f3-8799-196a034707ce.html">exploitative data collection and ownership model</a>. In 2020, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sidewalk-labs-cancels-project-1.5559370">the project was called off</a>.</p>
<p>As Canada gears up for another round of its Smart Cities Challenge, policymakers need to look past the hype and glitz of smart technology, prioritize Canadian communities’ needs and strengthen democratic participation in urban planning. </p>
<h2>The next Smart Cities Challenge</h2>
<p>With these challenges in mind, what options does the Canadian federal government have in formulating its next Smart Cities Challenge? </p>
<p>First, the government should consider jettisoning the smart cities label altogether. <a href="https://utorontopress.com/9781487527174/digital-injustice-in-the-smart-city/">Some have argued</a> there is no rescuing the term from its profit-seeking origins. Using a different, more benign equivalent could signal that people’s needs are what’s important, not companies’ bottom lines. </p>
<p>When considering different titles, “digital cities” is <a href="https://oxfordre.com/communication/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228613.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228613-e-1083">not entirely guilt-free</a>, but has had a less contentious historical lineage that makes it an apt alternative. </p>
<p>Emerging in policy discussions during the 1990s, the digital cities movement was diverse in its planning goals. Its overarching aim was to explore how technologies could enhance cross-cultural communication, extend economic market transactions and provide deeper insights into how cities work.</p>
<p>Other nomenclature could de-centre technology altogether to acknowledge the goal isn’t digital smartness at all: “equitable cities,” “just cities,” or “healthy cities,” for example.</p>
<p>An examination of the proposals from the first Smart Cities Challenge reveals that municipalities were driven by community needs, not technology. Guelph and Wellington’s proposal about addressing food insecurity <a href="https://guelph.ca/wp-content/uploads/SmartCities_Booklet.pdf">only mentioned technology a few times</a>. Nunavut’s proposal involved <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/cities-villes/winners-gagnants/10m-nunavut-eng.html">suicide prevention</a>, a long-standing issue in its communities.</p>
<p>If the Smart Cities Challenge focused less on the “smartness” of technology, and more on substantive issues, cities would have had more freedom to articulate their challenges outside the confines of digital solutions.</p>
<h2>Community input is key</h2>
<p>Second, when designing the new challenge, tech companies should be all but absent from the table. Instead of hearing from the tech sector, the government should hear from community associations, non-profit organizations, civil groups, planners and urban policymakers. </p>
<p>Policymakers need to recognize that urban planning policies <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300223804/undoing-optimization/">should not be limited by what we think is possible with digital technologies</a>. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1473095213513579">democratic debates that lead us to recognize and address urban problems</a> must be the foundation, context and ultimate goal of any related digital cities program. </p>
<p>In other words, the technology needs to come second, and technology companies must contribute after the problems are already framed. The smart city must be just “smart enough” and no more, in <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262538961/the-smart-enough-city/">data scientist Ben Green’s words</a>. A reconfigured Smart Cities Challenge could potentially support these processes.</p>
<p>The Canadian government has some difficult decisions to make, but there are clear paths forward to avoid the pitfalls that characterized the first 14 years of “smart cities.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216984/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ryan Burns receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Calgary Institute for the Humanities. He is affiliated with the American Association for the Advancement of Science as a Science & Technology Policy Fellow. </span></em></p>The Canadian federal government is pursuing the idea of “smart cities,” but in the wrong way.Ryan Burns, Associate Professor of Geography, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2111812023-08-14T02:32:53Z2023-08-14T02:32:53ZCreating ‘sponge cities’ to cope with more rainfall needn’t cost billions – but NZ has to start now<p>Tune into news from about any part of the planet, and there will likely be a headline about extreme weather. While these stories will be specific to the location, they all tend to include the amplifying effects of climate change.</p>
<p>This includes the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sleepwalking-a-bushfire-scientist-explains-what-the-hawaii-tragedy-means-for-our-flammable-continent-211364">wildfire devastation</a> on the island of Maui in Hawaii, where rising temperatures have dried vegetation and made the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/11/hawaii-fires-made-more-dangerous-by-climate-crisis">risk that much greater</a>. In Italy, summer temperatures hit an all-time high one week, followed by <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/25/europe/wildfires-storms-sicily-italy-climate-intl/index.html">massive hail storms and flooding</a> the next.</p>
<p>Flooding in <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/slovenia-prime-minister-robert-golob-estimates-flash-flood-damage-e500m/">Slovenia</a> recently left three people dead and caused an estimated €500 million in damage. At the same time, rainfall in <a href="https://apnews.com/article/china-beijing-rainfall-floods-1a8f968799bd539d11f3421010b8f2a9">Beijing</a> has exceeded a 140-year record, causing wide-scale flooding and leaving 21 dead.</p>
<p>These northern hemisphere summer events mirror what happened last summer in Auckland, classified as a <a href="https://niwa.co.nz/news/auckland-suffers-wettest-month-in-history">one-in-200-year event</a>, and elsewhere in the North Island. So far this year, rainfall at Auckland Airport has surpassed all records dating back to 1964.</p>
<p>Given more rainfall is one of the likeliest symptoms of a changing climate, the new report from the Helen Clark Foundation and <a href="https://www.wsp.com/en-nz/">WSP</a> – <a href="https://helenclark.foundation/publications-and-medias/sponge-cities/">Sponge Cities: Can they help us survive more intense rainfall?</a> – is a timely (and sobering) reminder of the urgency of the challenge.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542504/original/file-20230814-127481-j014ar.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542504/original/file-20230814-127481-j014ar.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542504/original/file-20230814-127481-j014ar.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542504/original/file-20230814-127481-j014ar.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542504/original/file-20230814-127481-j014ar.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542504/original/file-20230814-127481-j014ar.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542504/original/file-20230814-127481-j014ar.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://niwa.co.nz/">NIWA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Pipe dreams</h2>
<p>The “<a href="https://theconversation.com/auckland-floods-even-stormwater-reform-wont-be-enough-we-need-a-sponge-city-to-avoid-future-disasters-198736">sponge city</a>” concept is gaining traction as a way to mitigate extreme weather, save lives and even make cities more pleasant places to live. </p>
<p>This is particularly important when existing urban stormwater infrastructure is often already ageing and inadequate. Auckland has even been <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-council-cut-spending-on-stormwater-repairs-and-maintenance-before-januarys-catastrophic-floods/IRBOFWX2OVAA3EPV42JROCV3FU/">cutting spending on critical stormwater repairs</a> for at least the past two years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/auckland-floods-even-stormwater-reform-wont-be-enough-we-need-a-sponge-city-to-avoid-future-disasters-198736">Auckland floods: even stormwater reform won’t be enough – we need a ‘sponge city’ to avoid future disasters</a>
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<p>Politically at least, this isn’t surprising. Stormwater infrastructure, as it is currently built and planned, is costly to develop and maintain. As the Helen Clark Foundation report makes clear, New Zealand’s pipes simply “were not designed for the huge volumes they will have to manage with rising seas and increasing extreme rainfall events”.</p>
<p>The country’s current combined stormwater infrastructure involves a 17,000 kilometre pipe network – enough to span the length of the country ten times. The cost of upgrading the entire water system, which encompasses stormwater, could reach NZ$180 billion. </p>
<p>This contrasts starkly with the $1.5 billion councils now spend annually on water pipes. The report makes clear that implementing sponge city principles won’t wholly solve flooding, but it can significantly reduce flood risks. </p>
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<h2>Trees and green spaces</h2>
<p>The real bonus, though, lies in the potential for sponge city design to reduce dependence on expensive and high-maintenance infrastructure. </p>
<p>There are already examples in Auckland’s Hobsonville Point and Northcote. Both communities have incorporated green infrastructure, such as floodable parks and planted wetlands, which kept nearby homes from flooding.</p>
<p>But the report’s recommendations are at odds with some of the current political rhetoric around land use policy – in particular “greenfields” development that <a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-housing-u-turn-promotes-urban-sprawl-cities-and-ratepayers-will-pick-up-the-bill-206762">encourages urban sprawl</a>. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-housing-u-turn-promotes-urban-sprawl-cities-and-ratepayers-will-pick-up-the-bill-206762">National’s housing u-turn promotes urban sprawl – cities and ratepayers will pick up the bill</a>
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<p>The report urges that cities be built upwards rather than outwards, and pushes back on residential infill development encouraged by the <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/medium-density-residential-standards-a-guide-for-territorial-authorities/">Medium Density Residential Standards</a>.</p>
<p>Citing a <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-building-harder-hotter-cities-its-vital-we-protect-and-grow-urban-green-spaces-new-report-201753">recent report</a> on green space from the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, the Helen Clark Foundation report argues for the preservation of urban green spaces – like backyards – as part of the flood mitigation approach. </p>
<p>Preserving tree cover is another urgent priority. Trees help absorb rainfall, reduce erosion and provide essential shade and cooling in urban areas – counteracting the dangerous <a href="https://theconversation.com/planting-more-trees-could-reduce-premature-heat-related-deaths-in-european-cities-by-a-third-new-research-198960">urban “heat island” effect</a>. Citing data from <a href="https://www.globalforestwatch.org/">Global Forest Watch</a>, the report states: </p>
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<p>Auckland has lost as much as 19% of its tree cover in the past 20 years, Dunedin a staggering 24%, Greater Wellington around 11% and Christchurch 13%. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/planting-more-trees-could-reduce-premature-heat-related-deaths-in-european-cities-by-a-third-new-research-198960">Planting more trees could reduce premature heat-related deaths in European cities by a third – new research</a>
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<h2>Incentives for homeowners</h2>
<p>Making Aotearoa New Zealand more resilient to extreme weather, the report says, need not break the bank. </p>
<p>It recommends raising the national minimum standards governing the percentage of the total area of new developments that must be left unsealed. This would ensure the implementation of sponge city concepts, and see buildings clustered to maximise preserved green space.</p>
<p>The government should also require local councils to plan for and provide public green spaces, and to develop long-term sponge city plans – just as they do for other types of critical infrastructure.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/were-building-harder-hotter-cities-its-vital-we-protect-and-grow-urban-green-spaces-new-report-201753">We’re building harder, hotter cities: it’s vital we protect and grow urban green spaces – new report</a>
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<p>Neighbourhoods could be retrofitted to include green roofs, permeable pavements and unsealed car parks. Land use and zoning could also encourage more vertical development, rather than sprawl or infill housing.</p>
<p>The government could also provide incentives and education for homeowners to encourage minimising sealed surfaces, unblocking stormwater flow paths, and replacing lawns with native plants and rain gardens.</p>
<p>More extreme weather and intense rainfall is a matter of when, not if. As the Helen Clark Foundation report makes clear, spending future billions is less of a priority than acting urgently now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211181/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Welch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new report sets out the practical ways New Zealand can improve its urban resilience to flooding due to climate change. But time, rather than money, is of the essence.Timothy Welch, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1992742023-02-23T13:42:14Z2023-02-23T13:42:14ZAfrica’s first heat officer is based in Freetown – 5 things that should be on her agenda<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511378/original/file-20230221-22-2abbei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Eugenia Kargbo has an unusual job: she is the city of Freetown’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/06/world/africa/eugenia-kargbo-chief-heat-officer-africa.html">chief heat officer</a>. Her role in Sierra Leone’s capital is the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-01-21/how-africa-s-first-heat-officer-confronts-climate-change">first of its kind in Africa</a>. She has been tasked with raising public awareness about extreme heat, improving responses to heat waves, and collecting, analysing and visualising heat impact data for the city, which is home to <a href="https://populationstat.com/sierra-leone/freetown">1.2 million people</a>. </p>
<p>Freetown is increasingly threatened by dangerous temperatures. In 2017, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <a href="https://chinadialogueocean.net/en/governance/19162-sea-level-rise-sierra-leone-sinking-islands/">ranked Sierra Leone third</a>, after Bangladesh and Guinea Bissau, on its list of countries most vulnerable to climate change. </p>
<p>The risks are concentrated in its capital and largest city, Freetown, where some <a href="https://www.mayorsmigrationcouncil.org/gcf-res/freetown-sierra-leone">35%</a> of the population live in 74 informal settlements like Kroo Bay, often in disaster-prone areas like the seafront or hillsides. Houses are densely built and typically temporary structures made of “heat traping” materials. Services that supports cooling, such as water and electricity, are usually inadequate. </p>
<p>As an <a href="https://www.acu.ac.uk/get-involved/commonwealth-climate-research-cohort/theme-cities/dr-olumuyiwa-adegun/">architect</a> whose work includes <a href="https://theconversation.com/growing-plants-on-buildings-can-reduce-heat-and-produce-healthy-food-in-african-cities-191190">researching ways to reduce heat in African cities</a>, I think the creation of an Heat Officer position is a good move. The world’s cities are almost all getting hotter – and, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">has warned</a>, temperatures will only keep rising. </p>
<p>But, while this is a global challenge, African cities are unique. The significant proportion of urban dwellers who are poor and those whose living conditions do not provide adequate shelter from the elements make the African context unique and deserving special attention. </p>
<p>With these realities in mind, here are five things I’d suggest should be on the agenda of both Kargbo and any other heat officer appointed elsewhere on the continent in future. </p>
<h2>1. Take a diverse approach to urban greening</h2>
<p>Nature-based approaches are a great way to address increasing temperatures linked to climate change. <a href="https://researchoutput.csu.edu.au/en/publications/african-urbanism-the-geography-of-urban-greenery">Scholars have established</a> positive links between green infrastructure, temperature moderation and even health outcomes in African cities as well as elsewhere in the world.</p>
<p>This has informed a growing number of tree-planting initiatives and the development of urban parks. But it is important that municipalities move beyond only these kinds of spaces. African cities are becoming densely populated; that means less space will be available for greening initiatives on land. </p>
<p>Vertical systems of building (for example on walls, roofs, columns) and urban infrastructure (for example on bridges, road furniture) should be explored to make up for the lack of space on the ground.</p>
<p>In the last few years, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fbuil.2022.874751/full">I have led the design and development of experimental vertical gardens</a> in low-income areas of Nigeria and Tanzania. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jue/article/8/1/juac016/6726544">We have shown </a> that these vertical gardens reduce wall temperature of residential buildings by as much as 5°C in Dar es Salaam. The gardens have other benefits like providing fresh vegetables for household consumption. Similar ways of growing vegetation vertically have been seen elsewhere in the world, including in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/oct/30/mexico-city-via-verde-vertical-gardens-pollution-climate-change">Mexico City</a>.</p>
<h2>2. Strengthen the link between heat and health</h2>
<p>Exposure to extreme heat usually comes with health problems – and can even kill people, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fbuil.2022.874751/full">as I</a> and many other scholars <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34846569/">have documented</a>. It exacerbates underlying health conditions. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-stress-is-rising-in-southern-africa-climate-experts-show-where-and-when-its-worst-198455">Heat stress is rising in southern Africa – climate experts show where and when it’s worst</a>
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<p>One area of concern when it comes to the heat-health nexus in African countries is that <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32584659/">mosquito numbers increase in higher temperatures</a>. This means malaria and other diseases transmitted by mosquitoes might become <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519621001327">significant problems</a> for Freetown and other African cities. </p>
<p>These health problems are further complicated by the fact that many city dwellers across the continent <a href="https://academic.oup.com/heapol/article/27/suppl_1/i46/603713">can’t access adequate and affordable health care</a>. Community health initiatives within cities and efforts to ramp up health services in qualitative and quantitative terms must be integral to heat adaptation plans and actions. </p>
<h2>3. Focus on early warning and improved awareness</h2>
<p>It is far better to be proactive than reactive. Heat vulnerability patterns within Freetown and other African cities must be studied and used to make sense of weather predictions in order to inform warning systems. </p>
<p>In the warning systems, for example, an alert level can be triggered when the weather forecast shows three or more consecutive days with daytime maximum temperature and humidity above a threshold of, say, 30°C. Other levels of alerts can correspond with higher temperatures. This sort of system has been <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/health-programs-advice/hot-weather/about-torontos-heat-relief-strategy/">implemented</a> in Toronto, Canada, with good outcomes. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.17269/s41997-022-00665-1">A recent study</a> of urban areas in Ontario (the province where Toronto is located) shows that early warnings may have meant fewer heat-related illnesses severe enough to warrant hospital or clinic visits. </p>
<h2>4. Encourage the transfer of knowledge</h2>
<p>Cities can adapt to heat faster when they share knowledge and experiences. Some scholars <a href="https://en.x-mol.com/paper/article/1481026728131448832">argue</a> that inter-city collaboration and knowledge-sharing can enhance municipalities’ resilience and improve urban residents’ skills to deal with heat-related issues.</p>
<p>Kargbo’s work will generate many lessons that can be shared with other African cities; she, too, will learn from other cities’ successes and failures</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/growing-more-plants-and-trees-can-cut-down-the-heat-in-nigerian-cities-82185">Growing more plants and trees can cut down the heat in Nigerian cities</a>
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<p>. </p>
<h2>5. Let locals lead</h2>
<p>While there is plenty to learn from more developed countries outside Africa, it is important to also draw from local indigenous knowledge and practices. An examination of knowledge and awareness about climate-related and environmental problems in African traditional society <a href="https://pubag.nal.usda.gov/catalog/6017059">shows</a> there is much to be learned from indigenous systems.</p>
<p>Top-down approaches are not enough. They must be complemented by bottom-up approaches in the planning, funding, execution and assessment of heat adaptation initiatives. </p>
<p>Inclusion is also important because it shifts power to those who are most affected by heat – people living in low-income and informal areas <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004221012177">are disproportionately affected</a>. Involving them enhances the impacts of initiatives and interventions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199274/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olumuyiwa Adegun previously received funding from African Academy of Sciences; DAAD ClimapAfrica Program; Commonwealth Futures Climate Research Cohort Programme</span></em></p>Freetown, the capital city of Sierra Leone, has a chief heat officer, the first in Africa. She has her work cut out for her.Olumuyiwa Adegun, Senior Lecturer, Department of Architecture, Federal University of Technology, AkureLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1727582022-01-10T19:12:45Z2022-01-10T19:12:45ZWithout urgent action, these are the street trees unlikely to survive climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439769/original/file-20220107-19-wrkl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3745&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cities across the world are on the front line of climate change, and calls are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Urban_areas.pdf">growing</a> for more urban cooling. Many governments are spending big on new trees in public places – but which species are most likely to thrive in a warmer world?</p>
<p>Numerical targets such as “one million trees” dominate tree-planting programs in cities such as <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/research/highlights/highlights_display.php?in_high_id=361">Los Angeles</a>, <a href="https://www.milliontreesnyc.org/">New York</a>, <a href="http://www.mtpchina.org/">Shanghai</a>, <a href="https://greeningthewest.org.au/1-million-trees-melbournes-west/">Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/premiers-priorities/greening-our-city">Sydney</a>. But whacking a million trees into the ground won’t necessarily mean greener suburbs in decades to come.</p>
<p>Often, not enough attention is paid to selecting the right trees or providing enough water so they survive a hotter, drier climate in future. </p>
<p>In our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15976">recent research</a>, we assessed the effects of extreme heat and drought on urban tree species. Some much-loved tree species, widely planted across our cities, did not handle the conditions well. It shows how important decisions must be made today for urban greening programs to succeed in a warmer world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="City suburb with road and trees" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439770/original/file-20220107-21-1e6knt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439770/original/file-20220107-21-1e6knt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439770/original/file-20220107-21-1e6knt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439770/original/file-20220107-21-1e6knt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439770/original/file-20220107-21-1e6knt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439770/original/file-20220107-21-1e6knt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439770/original/file-20220107-21-1e6knt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">We must pay more attention to ensuring urban trees survive climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>A hothouse experiment</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Dead tree near tram lines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439931/original/file-20220109-21-1922ifg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439931/original/file-20220109-21-1922ifg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1229&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439931/original/file-20220109-21-1922ifg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1229&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439931/original/file-20220109-21-1922ifg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1229&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439931/original/file-20220109-21-1922ifg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1544&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439931/original/file-20220109-21-1922ifg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439931/original/file-20220109-21-1922ifg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1544&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Intense heat and drought can damage urban trees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Ellsworth</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In January 2020, following several years of drought, Penrith in Western Sydney hit 48.9°C – the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/sydney-s-penrith-the-hottest-place-on-earth-amid-devastating-bushfires/990f7843-278b-4973-90ab-b6dcb01c97aa">hottest temperature</a> ever recorded in Greater Sydney. Researchers later assessed about 5,500 street trees and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1618866721002466?via%3Dihub">found</a> more than 10% displayed canopy damage. Exotic deciduous species fared the worst. </p>
<p>The event showed how simultaneous intense heat and drought can damage urban trees. </p>
<p>Trees cool down in hot temperatures by losing water through microscopic openings in their leaves called stomata. Sufficiently watered trees can often tolerate extreme hot temperatures, while drought-stressed trees may struggle to survive. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15976">Our research</a> involved stress-testing 20 broadleaf evergreen tree species from habitats ranging from tropical rainforests to semi-arid woodlands. </p>
<p>Seedlings were grown in a coordinated glasshouse experiment. After the plants were established and acclimatised, half of them – five plants per species – were exposed to a gradual, five-week drought. </p>
<p>In the final week of water deficit, all plants were exposed to conditions simulating a six-day heatwave.</p>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>The 20 plant species varied widely in their ability to handle these conditions. </p>
<p>Of the plants exposed to both heat and drought, two species suffered modest crown dieback (a decline in health of the canopy) and another four species suffered extensive crown dieback. </p>
<p>Most plants resumed growth after the heatwave but several individual plants died: two swamp banksia (<em>Banksia robur</em>) and one crimson bottlebrush (<em>Callistemon citrinus</em>).</p>
<p>Species with dense wood and small, thick, dense leaves use water efficiently and are drought-tolerant. The species which fared best in our study included orange jasmine (<em>Murraya paniculata</em>), inland rosewood (<em>Alectryon oleifolius</em>) and Australian teak (<em>Flindersia australis</em>).</p>
<p>Even when plant species had access to water, their tolerance of heat stress varied widely. Swamp banksia (<em>Banksia robur</em>) and powderpuff lilly pilly (<em>Syzygium wilsonii</em>) suffered extensive crown dieback even with access to water. This shows warmer heatwaves may threaten urban trees in both wet and dry years.</p>
<p>While some species may fare well in heat and drought, they may not necessarily be the best choice for cooling our cities. Many drought-tolerant species such as leopardwood (<em>Flindersia maculosa</em>) grow slowly and have sparse foliage that provides little shade or cooling. But these species could be planted in sunny, dry areas to create habitat and improve biodiversity.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-green-more-zzzzz-trees-may-help-us-sleep-132354">More green, more ‘zzzzz’? Trees may help us sleep</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>So what about trees like the weeping fig (<em>Ficus microcarpa</em>) and London plane tree (<em>Platanus</em> x <em>acerifolia</em>), which are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2020.126746">widely planted</a> in Sydney, Melbourne and other Australian cities?</p>
<p>These trees are at greater risk during heat and drought, because they have soft, low-density wood and thin, large leaves that are vulnerable to heat. But they grow quickly and form extensive canopies that help cool urban areas. </p>
<p>So these trees should be planted where water is available, either from rain or through active management such as irrigation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Microscope image of leaf" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439777/original/file-20220107-17-1u8fd61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439777/original/file-20220107-17-1u8fd61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439777/original/file-20220107-17-1u8fd61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439777/original/file-20220107-17-1u8fd61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439777/original/file-20220107-17-1u8fd61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439777/original/file-20220107-17-1u8fd61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439777/original/file-20220107-17-1u8fd61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Microscopic image of leaf damaged by heat in the glasshouse study.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Agnieszka Wujeska-Klause</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking ahead to a hot future</h2>
<p>Our research highlights how access to water is crucial for the survival of urban trees during hotter and drier summers. </p>
<p>That means urban greening programs must also incorporate elements of so-called “<a href="http://bioveins.eu/blog/article2">blue</a>” infrastructure – retaining water in urban landscapes via engineered solutions and making it available for plant uptake. Such infrastructure comes together under the umbrella of “water sensitive urban design”.</p>
<p>Examples include passive irrigation (where trees draw water from <a href="https://wsroc.com.au/projects/project-turn-down-the-heat/turn-down-the-heat-resources-5">storage pits</a> containing stormwater) or <a href="https://www.sydneywater.com.au/content/dam/sydneywater/documents/urban-typologies-and-stormwater-management-part-2.pdf">raingardens</a> – garden beds that filter stormwater runoff. Planting young trees in locations where such design is applied will improve their odds of survival. </p>
<p>Such methods offer multiple benefits: increasing the health of trees, helping prevent flooding during storms and reducing the need for additional irrigation from local water supplies.</p>
<p>Across the world, extreme heat in cities will affect citizens, infrastructure and natural environments. Effective planning for urban trees is needed now to strike the right balance between trees that cool our cities and those that will survive increasingly harsh conditions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-years-condemn-australia-is-forgetting-the-sacred-trees-planted-to-remember-our-war-dead-159426">The years condemn: Australia is forgetting the sacred trees planted to remember our war dead</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172758/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Renée M. Prokopavicius receives funding from the Australian Government as recipient of an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (project DE200100649) and from a NSW Government Greening our City grant (project GoC0000000101); the views expressed herein are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the Government or the Australian Research Council. R. M. Prokopavicius worked on the Which Plant Where project from 2017-2020, which is funded by the Green Cities Fund, as part of the Hort Frontiers Strategic Partnership Initiative developed by Hort Innovation, with co-investment from Macquarie University, Western Sydney University, and the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:d.ellsworth@westernsydney.edu.au">d.ellsworth@westernsydney.edu.au</a> receives funding from Hort Innovation Australia via the Green Cities Fund, as part of the Hort Frontiers Strategic Partnership Initiative developed by Hort Innovation, with co-investment from Macquarie University, Western Sydney University, and the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. He also receives funding from the Australian Research Council that can be related to this work.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sebastian Pfautsch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>important decisions must be made today for urban greening programs to succeed in a warmer world.Renée M Prokopavicius, Postdoctoral Researcher in Plant Ecophysiology, Western Sydney UniversityDavid S Ellsworth, Professor, Western Sydney UniversitySebastian Pfautsch, Research Theme Fellow - Environment and Sustainability, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1399692021-06-24T20:10:51Z2021-06-24T20:10:51ZCOVID has disrupted our big, and regional planning has to catch up fast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407606/original/file-20210622-4255-1ggwemi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C10%2C3592%2C2387&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/blaineo/4748540414">Blaine O'Neill/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the 1950s, the world has experienced a <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization">sixfold increase in the number of people living in cities</a>. City dwellers now <a href="https://population.un.org/wup/">outnumber rural residents</a> globally and in many individual countries. But the COVID-19 pandemic has <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720359209">begun to disrupt</a> the trajectory, scale and form of urbanisation. </p>
<p>Cities, by virtue of their size, have <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker">recorded more deaths</a> than surrounding rural areas, though this <a href="https://www.jhsph.edu/news/news-releases/2020/urban-density-not-linked-to-higher-coronavirus-infection-rates-and-is-linked-to-lower-covid-19-death-rates.html">may not be linked to density</a>. In the USA, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/22/914578634/americas-200-000-covid-19-deaths-small-cities-and-towns-bear-a-growing-share">small cities and towns</a> have been hit hard. And social and economic disruption appears worse in <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/covid-19-will-hit-the-developing-worlds-cities-hardest-heres-why/">cities in the developing world</a>.</p>
<p>The pandemic is refocusing planners’ attention on the vulnerability of cities to natural hazards and other threats. Securing food, water and energy, sustaining health services and maintaining critical supply chains are seen as more important than ever. Planners are also concerned about rising <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-coronavirus-will-deepen-the-inequality-of-our-suburbs-143432">social inequality</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-coronavirus-will-deepen-the-inequality-of-our-suburbs-143432">Why coronavirus will deepen the inequality of our suburbs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The pandemic has fast-tracked some trends</h2>
<p>In developed nations like Australia, more city dwellers are <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20200316-1">moving to the suburbs and beyond</a>, believing they offer better security and quality of life. Australian Bureau of Statistics data from 2020 show our capital cities experienced <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-covid-really-caused-an-exodus-from-our-cities-in-fact-moving-to-the-regions-is-nothing-new-154724">a net loss of 11,200 people</a> from outward migration. This is also happening in less developed countries, where rural-urban <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10708-021-10394-6">migration patterns have in some cases reversed</a>. </p>
<p>It’s too early, though, to tell if these shifts are permanent.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/has-covid-really-caused-an-exodus-from-our-cities-in-fact-moving-to-the-regions-is-nothing-new-154724">Has COVID really caused an exodus from our cities? In fact, moving to the regions is nothing new</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-covid-all-but-killed-the-australian-cbd-147848">impacts of COVID-19</a> have heightened de-growth and counter-urbanisation trends. Reduced public transport use (<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">down by as much as 52% nationally in 2020</a>) and lower demand for commercial space (occupancy rates <a href="https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/city-workplaces-filling-faster-as-covid-19-retreats-20210329-p57ey6">fell to as low as 24%</a> in some cities), are changing the look and feel of many central business districts. Business profits and government revenue have been reduced. </p>
<p>The opposite is occurring in some suburbs and towns. These areas are experiencing a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/17/getting-out-of-town-australians-rush-to-rent-in-the-regions">squeeze on rental availability, rising property prices</a> and more traffic congestion.</p>
<p>Some commentators are suggesting the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20201109-coronavirus-how-cities-travel-and-family-life-will-change">future of cities</a> will be radically different. So what does this mean for urban planning?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-covid-all-but-killed-the-australian-cbd-147848">How COVID all but killed the Australian CBD</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Cities require co-ordination to function properly</h2>
<p>Cities are complex entities. They require a high degree of co-ordination in providing services (such as water supply, waste management), housing and infrastructure (for example, energy generation and distribution). Regional planning often performs that role.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00343404.2021.1875128">Regional planning</a> was developed following the second world war to co-ordinate decision-making across jurisdictions within metropolitan areas. To achieve desired city planning objectives, planners needed a way to better manage rapid population growth and the many interactions of landowners, property developers, businesses and local governments.</p>
<p>Regional plans developed by Australian states from the 1940s to 1970s, for example, sought to contain and focus urban growth pressures. This was done by managing land use, designating urban growth corridors and boundaries, and protecting key resources (forests, water catchments, farmland) from incompatible development. Most regional plans were based on a central core surrounded by suburbs, with radiating transport lines (railways and freeways) connecting the two.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="1948 poster promoting the Cumberland County Plan for Sydney" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408056/original/file-20210624-23-5hk1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408056/original/file-20210624-23-5hk1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408056/original/file-20210624-23-5hk1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408056/original/file-20210624-23-5hk1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408056/original/file-20210624-23-5hk1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1144&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408056/original/file-20210624-23-5hk1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1144&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408056/original/file-20210624-23-5hk1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1144&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The cover of a public information booklet about the Cumberland County Planning Scheme for Sydney (1948)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">City of Sydney Archives</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-shows-working-from-home-the-best-way-to-beat-congestion-148926">COVID shows working from home the best way to beat congestion</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Beware quick fixes that ignore new trends</h2>
<p>As countries recover from the pandemic’s impacts, the temptation is to use quick fixes to stimulate economic activity — such as unlocking large areas of land for housing. But planning urban areas to meet the needs of present and future generations requires strategic decision-making. Will we need all those new houses or large infrastructure projects if our <a href="https://mccrindle.com.au/insights/blog/how-covid-19-is-likely-to-affect-australias-population-forecast/">urban populations grow more slowly</a> than expected?</p>
<p>The forces currently driving people away from cities and the impacts this is having on built environments and urban populations cannot be ignored. We need to ask if they are temporary, or if they signal a long-term change to our cities. </p>
<p>We also need to recognise that huge investments in urban infrastructure have been made since the 1950s. It is unlikely we will simply abandon our cities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-covid-19-wont-kill-cities-144342">Why COVID-19 won't kill cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Even with larger numbers of people moving to suburbs and the countryside, we will still need to supply infrastructure such as new roads, powerlines, water pipes, sewers and waste management facilities. But regional planning must adapt to the “new normal”, as the current approaches might no longer be fit for purpose.</p>
<h2>What does the future hold?</h2>
<p>Trends in working from home, online shopping, peer-to-peer transport such as Uber, <a href="https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/distributed-energy-resources/">distributed energy generation</a> (from rooftop solar and other local sources), waste recycling (such as <a href="https://www.thenatureofcities.com/2018/07/24/urban-metabolism-real-world-model-visualizing-co-creating-healthy-cities/">circular metabolism</a>) and new models of finance and funding (such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/bernie-sanders-economic-adviser-has-a-message-we-might-just-need-130182">modern monetary theory</a>) are all affecting the complex systems needed to keep urban areas functioning.</p>
<p>Although vaccines may help life return to some level of normality in the coming years, many of the drivers of counter-urbanisation will continue. Some people will want to keep working from home. Other will want more opportunities to interact with nature. Many will want to live in what planners are calling <a href="https://theconversation.com/people-love-the-idea-of-20-minute-neighbourhoods-so-why-isnt-it-top-of-the-agenda-131193">20-minute neighbourhoods</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-love-the-idea-of-20-minute-neighbourhoods-so-why-isnt-it-top-of-the-agenda-131193">People love the idea of 20-minute neighbourhoods. So why isn't it top of the agenda?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Changing supply chains may result in a rise in <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-ways-to-fix-the-problems-caused-by-rezoning-inner-city-industrial-land-for-mixed-use-apartments-121566">new types of local manufacturing</a>. Hydrogen-based energy could make new modes of transport viable — such as smaller, <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-impacts-demand-a-change-of-plan-funding-a-shift-from-commuting-to-living-locally-144802">on-demand buses for suburban public transport</a>. We may see the rise of more <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-close-is-sydney-to-the-vision-of-creating-three-30-minute-cities-115847">polycentric cities</a>, like Los Angeles, where suburban centres of employment include local manufacturing. </p>
<p>Regional planning must adjust to these trends. Some large-scale infrastructure projects might need to be rethought. Transit systems will likely need to include autonomous vehicles. <a href="https://lens.monash.edu/@science/2021/05/13/1383127/with-our-cities-getting-hotter-its-time-for-a-radical-tree-change">Large-scale greening</a> of cities will be necessary to reduce higher temperatures accompanying climate change, if we are to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-save-ageing-australians-from-the-heat-greening-our-cities-is-a-good-start-112613">prevent avoidable deaths among older populations</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Elderly couple sit on a bench in shade under street trees" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407863/original/file-20210623-15-nxo9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407863/original/file-20210623-15-nxo9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407863/original/file-20210623-15-nxo9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407863/original/file-20210623-15-nxo9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407863/original/file-20210623-15-nxo9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407863/original/file-20210623-15-nxo9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407863/original/file-20210623-15-nxo9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change means urban greening needs to be part of strategic urban planning to counter extreme heat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/old-couple-sitting-alleyway-city-4292476">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-save-ageing-australians-from-the-heat-greening-our-cities-is-a-good-start-112613">How do we save ageing Australians from the heat? Greening our cities is a good start</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We will probably also experience new ways of involving citizens in decision-making, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-future-of-transport-how-local-people-are-helping-to-design-new-metro-trains-152473">co-design</a>.</p>
<p>Regional planning has the capacity to stimulate innovation in housing provision, alternative forms of employment and co-ordinating new systems of transport and energy distribution. But planners must catch up fast if they are to play a role in shaping the future of our cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139969/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Byrne undertakes research in partnership with the Southern Tasmanian Councils Authority, Local Government Association of Tasmania and Tasmanian Climate Change Office. Jason has previously received research funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Planning Institute of Australia (PIA), and sits on the PIA Tasmanian Divisional Committee</span></em></p>The pandemic has accelerated some urban trends and reversed others, while focusing attention on the vulnerabilities of cities. The old planning certainties will have to be revisited.Jason Byrne, Professor of Human Geography and Planning, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1604592021-05-16T19:54:44Z2021-05-16T19:54:44ZRise of transport megaprojects adds to Australian taxpayers’ risk of paying too much<p>When governments decide to build a new road, bridge or train line, their first concern should be getting it at the cheapest possible long-term price for a given quality standard. But our new report, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/megabang-for-megabucks/">Megabang for Megabucks</a>, shows cost management is rarely top of mind for governments. And, with the trend towards ever-larger projects, the risk that a lack of competition for contracts will push up prices is very real.</p>
<p>Australia is an expensive place to build large transport projects. An <a href="https://transitcosts.com/">international study</a> of rail projects found costs in Australia are in the top quarter of 27 OECD countries. Our costs are much higher than in many other rich countries: 26% higher than in Canada, 29% higher than in Japan, and more than three times as high as in Spain. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing average costs per kilometre of railway infrastructure by country" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Notes: includes all OECD countries in the study. Costs converted to US dollars on a purchasing power parity basis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://transitcosts.com/">Data source: Transit Costs Project, Levy (2020)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of course, international comparisons are fraught. The cost of any particular project depends on local factors such as geology, location and the extent of the existing network.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-evidence-base-for-big-calls-on-infrastructure-costs-us-all-99080">Missing evidence base for big calls on infrastructure costs us all</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But competition among construction firms is crucial if taxpayers are going to get the best price. Robust <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiBRCBicGQg">competition</a> encourages firms to bid as low as they can and to innovate. If there is a field of potential bidders on megaproject contracts and the market is open to new entrants, there is also less opportunity for firms to <a href="https://knowledgehub.transparency.org/helpdesk/collusion-in-public-procurement-contracts">collude</a> by market-sharing, bid-rigging or price-fixing.</p>
<h2>Bigger contracts reduce competition</h2>
<p>Megaprojects – projects costing more than A$1 billion – are typically broken up into a handful of contracts. For the smaller contracts – worth A$500 million or less – there are few concerns about competition: many firms can bid for and win these contracts. But the larger the contract, the thinner the potential field of construction firms gets. </p>
<p>Australia’s “big three” or “tier one” firms – CPB, John Holland and Acciona – win the vast majority of contracts over $1 billion, either independently or in a joint venture with other firms, as the chart below shows. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing number of contracts over $1 billion awarded to firms of different sizes since 2006" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Notes: We classify John Holland, CIMIC Group firms CPB Contractors (formerly Leighton Holdings) and Thiess, Lendlease, Bilfinger Berger (including.
Valemus firms Abigroup and Baulderstone), and Acciona as tier one firms. Acciona is included as a tier one firm for all past projects, even though it only became a
tier one with the acquisition of Lendlease Engineering in 2020. All construction contracts considered by the procuring agency as a major contract or work
package are included, for projects over $1 billion since 2006. Does not include rolling-stock contracts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/megabang-for-megabucks/">Grattan Institute</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For the largest contracts, even the tier one firms don’t usually go it alone. A joint venture involving two of the big three has won eight out of 11 contracts larger than $3 billion. When two of these firms form a joint venture, local firms have very little opportunity to compete: even a bid involving the other tier one firm is unlikely to be successful. </p>
<p>An extreme case is the <a href="https://www.westconnex.com.au/roads-projects/m4-m5-link-rozelle-interchange/">Rozelle Interchange</a> as part of the WestConnex motorway project in New South Wales. At first it attracted <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-12/westconnex-nsw-government-rejects-only-bid-for-m4-m5-interchange/9042082">only one bid</a> – from a joint venture between all three tier one firms. The state government rejected this offer and re-tendered the job, redesigning the contract in an attempt to entice more bidders. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/westconnex-audit-offers-another-17b-lesson-in-how-not-to-fund-infrastructure-73206">WestConnex audit offers another $17b lesson in how not to fund infrastructure</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Victorian government is clearly aware of the risk of limited competition when tier one firms form joint ventures. It <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/lendlease-john-holland-cimic-sidelined-on-victorias-north-east-link-tollroad-20180921-h15pb4">banned joint ventures</a> of two or more tier one firms from bidding for the <a href="https://northeastlink.vic.gov.au/works/early-works-program">North East Link</a> freeway. The government preferred to encourage bids by international firms or mid-tier Australian firms.</p>
<p>And what’s really concerning is that these megacontracts are becoming the norm. Contracts above $3 billion in value were a rarity before 2014. In the seven years since, there have been ten, as the chart below shows. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing distribution of projects worth over $1 billion signed from 2006 onwards" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Notes: includes only construction contracts for megaprojects (projects over $1 billion) where the first contract was signed during or after 2006. Does not include rolling-stock contracts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/megabang-for-megabucks/">Grattan Institute</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pm-wants-to-fast-track-mega-projects-for-pandemic-recovery-heres-why-thats-a-bad-idea-136838">The PM wants to fast-track mega-projects for pandemic recovery. Here's why that’s a bad idea</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can governments do about this?</h2>
<p>Governments can take a couple of important steps to ensure there’s enough competition for contracts.</p>
<p>First, ensure international firms can freely enter the Australian market and bid on government contracts.</p>
<p>When two tier one firms form a joint venture to bid on very large contracts, the only avenue for competition is to involve international construction giants. So it’s crucial that Australian governments don’t give undue priority to domestic experience and cut the internationals out. </p>
<p>Governments should publish weighted criteria for bid selection. This ensures the international firms can be confident they’re not wasting resources bidding, only for governments to stick with the safe option of favouring local firms.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/spectacular-cost-blowouts-show-need-to-keep-governments-honest-on-transport-66394">Spectacular cost blowouts show need to keep governments honest on transport</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Second, avoid bundling work into bigger contracts than necessary.
Governments have an incentive to enact <a href="https://hvia.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/Austroads-AP-R624-20_Procurement_Decision_Tool.pdf">fewer and larger contracts</a> to make contract management simpler and minimise interface risks. These are the risks arising from interactions between multiple contractors, for example relating to site access. But bigger contracts mean fewer firms can bid for the work, particularly when different types of work are bundled together into a single package. </p>
<p>Governments should develop and use a systematic, consistent and transparent process to bundle up packages of work within a project. Examples would be splitting a highway upgrade into a number of smaller sections, or separating the design and construction tasks on a new rail line. </p>
<p>Megaprojects are making up an <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/the-rise-of-megaprojects-counting-the-costs/">ever-bigger portion</a> of transport infrastructure projects. Governments must focus on keeping the long-term cost as low as possible for the preferred quality standard. Otherwise, taxpayers will be at risk of paying over the odds.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-may-live-to-regret-open-slather-construction-stimulus-139967">We may live to regret open-slather construction stimulus</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p>Three big firms win almost all the $1 billion-plus contracts. And they often team up in joint ventures, further reducing the competition that would keep the price tags of road and rail projects down.Owain Emslie, Senior Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1491492020-11-08T19:04:42Z2020-11-08T19:04:42Z$34bn and counting – beware cost overruns in an era of megaprojects<p>A <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/the-rise-of-megaprojects-counting-the-costs">Grattan Institute report</a> released today finds Australian governments spent A$34 billion, or 21%, more on transport projects completed since 2001 than they first told taxpayers they would. And as we enter the era of megaprojects in Australia, costs continue to blow out.</p>
<p>Transport projects worth A$5 billion or more in today’s money were almost unheard of ten years ago. Today, as the chart below shows, megaprojects make up the bulk of the work under way across the country. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These megaprojects include <a href="https://www.westconnex.com.au/">WestConnex</a> in Sydney, <a href="https://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/">West Gate Tunnel</a> in Melbourne and <a href="https://crossriverrail.qld.gov.au/">Cross River Rail</a> in Brisbane. And this is to say nothing of some enormous projects being planned, such as Melbourne’s <a href="https://suburbanrailloop.vic.gov.au/en">Suburban Rail Loop</a>.</p>
<p>We are also hearing calls to add to this bulging pipeline. In June, the transport and infrastructure ministers of all states and territories <a href="https://www.transportinfrastructurecouncil.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/13th-transport-and-infrastructure-council-communique.pdf">said</a> they were “clearing the way for an infrastructure-led recovery” from the COVID-19 recession.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-may-live-to-regret-open-slather-construction-stimulus-139967">We may live to regret open-slather construction stimulus</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Cost overrun risks rise with project size</h2>
<p>The Grattan report, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/the-rise-of-megaprojects-counting-the-costs">The rise of megaprojects: counting the costs</a>, sounds a warning about the risks of this approach. The report uses the <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/economics/solutions/investment-monitor.html">Deloitte Access Economics Investment Monitor</a> to look at the final cost of all public road and rail projects worth A$20 million or more and completed since 2001. As the chart below shows, we found bigger projects overran their initial cost estimates more often and by more. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Almost half of the projects with an initial price tag of more than A$1 billion in today’s money had a cost overrun. These projects overran their initial costs by 30% on average. The extra amount spent on some megaprojects was the size of a megaproject itself.</p>
<p>Cost announcements before governments were prepared to commit formally to a project were particularly risky. Only one-third of projects had costs announced prematurely, but these accounted for more than three-quarters of the A$34 billion overrun.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-evidence-base-for-big-calls-on-infrastructure-costs-us-all-99080">Missing evidence base for big calls on infrastructure costs us all</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When early costings of infrastructure turn out to be too low, it distorts investment planning in three ways:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>underestimating the costs of transport infrastructure can lead to over-investing in it relative to other spending priorities</p></li>
<li><p>if governments misunderstand the uncertainty in a project’s cost at the time they commit to it, their decision to invest in that project was made on an incorrect basis</p></li>
<li><p>because unrealistic cost estimates are more prevalent for larger projects, governments are more likely to over-invest in larger projects. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>There’s also a fourth and no less important problem: when unrealistically low cost estimates are announced, the public is misled.</p>
<p>Despite the experience of the past 20 years, the costs of big projects continue to be underestimated. The chart below shows A$24 billion more than first expected will be spent on just six <em>mega</em> megaprojects (that is, projects with an initial cost estimate of A$5 billion or more) now under construction. Overruns on other megaprojects have been <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/deal-cut-on-metro-tunnel-s-blowout-billions-after-government-cave-in-20201015-p565a5.html">reported</a> too.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-promises-for-election-2019-the-good-the-bad-and-the-downright-ugly-115138">Transport promises for election 2019: the good, the bad and the downright ugly</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What needs to be done?</h2>
<p>With megaproject costs continuing to blow out, governments should take immediate steps to manage better the portfolio of work under way — particularly if they are looking to add to it in the name of economic stimulus. </p>
<p>Each state’s auditor-general should conduct a stocktake of current projects. This would give the public and the government a clear picture of the situation. </p>
<p>Ministers should begin reporting to parliament on a continuous disclosure basis. Any material changes in expected costs, benefits or completion dates of very large projects should be disclosed.</p>
<p>Steps should be taken to put decisions on the incoming batch of projects on a sounder basis, too. When announcing a cost, ministers and government agencies should disclose how advanced the estimate is. If the proposal is at an early stage, they should quote a range of estimates. </p>
<p>Governments should also require their infrastructure advisory bodies to at least assess — if not approve — large proposals before funding is committed.</p>
<p>Looking further ahead, action is needed to stop the pattern of spending billions more than expected on megaprojects. State departments of transport and infrastructure should devote more resources to identifying modest-sized transport infrastructure proposals. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pm-wants-to-fast-track-mega-projects-for-pandemic-recovery-heres-why-thats-a-bad-idea-136838">The PM wants to fast-track mega-projects for pandemic recovery. Here's why that’s a bad idea</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And governments need to start learning from the past. Detailed project data, particularly on expected and actual costs, should be centrally collated in each state. </p>
<p>Post-completion reviews should be mandatory on all large projects. These reviews should be published.</p>
<p>If there is no change in the way infrastructure is conceived and delivered in Australia, then the era of the megaproject will indeed mean megaproblems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p>A review of all public road and rail projects worth $20 million or more and completed since 2001 reveals a 21% cost overrun. Worryingly, costs of bigger projects blew out more often and by more.Greg Moran, Senior Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1482632020-10-28T17:27:52Z2020-10-28T17:27:52ZWill the population freeze allow our big cities to catch up on infrastructure?<p>The 2020 federal budget forecasts Australia’s <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/federal-budget/federal-budget-shows-that-the-pandemic-will-made-australias-population-go-backwards/news-story/c6d19af2d63fbb18c755686a010ea597">population growth will slow</a> to almost zero over several years because of COVID-19 and related restrictions. This leads to the question: will this period allow the big cities to catch up on infrastructure shortfalls that developed before the pandemic? </p>
<p>One of us recently conducted <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07293682.2020.1739095">research</a> on how infrastructure shortages – <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08111146.2011.576650">such as rail lines, open space and affordable housing</a> – linked to Sydney’s pre-pandemic rapid growth arose in the context of government support for a lot more population. The findings gives us some insights into whether an infrastructure catch-up might happen.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/city-planning-suffers-growth-pains-of-australias-population-boom-75930">City planning suffers growth pains of Australia's population boom</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The impacts of fiscal imbalance</h2>
<p>The research centred on the consequences for infrastructure provision in Sydney of the vertical fiscal imbalance in Australia. The Commonwealth collects <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/our-federation-functions-well-but-we-can-do-better/news-story/c15bea56432c3eb49db4964afb83b574">more than 80% of tax revenue</a> while the states rely on the Commonwealth for 45% of their revenue. </p>
<p>The federal government, especially the Treasury, favours population growth. That’s because it generates extra tax revenue, reduces the risk of recession and spreads the welfare costs of an ageing society across a wider base. </p>
<p>The state government is also positive about growth, though less so than the Commonwealth. As a public marker of successful government, growth provides political legitimacy. However, it also requires the state, under the Australian Constitution, to provide most of the infrastructure needed to support that growth. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the Commonwealth garners most of the extra tax revenue from growth. Extra state revenue from a growing population is absorbed into the unavoidable recurrent costs of health, education and so on to service the increased needs. As a result, the state government is unable to fund enough new public infrastructure. </p>
<p>Commonwealth infrastructure funding to the state is only a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-nation-s-most-populous-state-starts-to-shrink-20201001-p5615g.htm">small fraction</a> of the total required. The federal budget says New South Wales will receive A$2.7 billion from the Commonwealth for infrastructure over the next decade. The state government’s forecast infrastructure spending is more than A$100 billion over the next four years. </p>
<p>As a result, the state needs to call on private sector funding as much as possible. This means infrastructure that can’t be fully paid for by users, such as rail lines, open space and affordable housing, is under-provided. And, as is <a href="https://cur.org.au/cms/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/understanding-the-assumptions-and-impacts-of-the-phrp-final-report-28-5-19.pdf">the case in Victoria</a>, existing assets such as public housing are sold to the private sector.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/public-land-is-being-sold-exactly-where-thousands-on-the-waiting-list-need-housing-139118">Public land is being sold exactly where thousands on the waiting list need housing</a>
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<h2>An over-reliance on growth?</h2>
<p>This context suggests the pandemic-induced flatlining of population growth won’t necessarily allow the infrastructure shortfall to be overcome. Cities are unlikely to catch up unless the Commonwealth greatly increases its funding of state infrastructure. </p>
<p>State budgets rely heavily on growth-sensitive revenue such as property transfer taxes and the GST. And these are set to fall. NSW GST revenue, for example, is forecast to be <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-braces-for-historic-hit-to-gst-revenue-20201005-p5627w.html">A$3.5 billion lower</a> this financial year than anticipated before the pandemic.</p>
<p>For states to fund infrastructure beyond user-pay projects like motorways, they have to take on debt to offset reduced taxation revenue. But this will be constrained by their desire to preserve their credit ratings as a marker of good governance. </p>
<p>The federal government is less constrained. The combined influences of ultra-low interest rates and the Reserve Bank’s availability to buy government bonds mean much higher Commonwealth debt is now fiscally tolerable. </p>
<p>The question then becomes: can the Commonwealth’s ability to shoulder increased debt be used to provide the states with more infrastructure funding? The Commonwealth’s <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/coronavirus">huge budgeted outlays</a> to offset the economic impacts of the pandemic are obviously a major constraint on this happening. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/should-the-government-keep-running-up-debt-to-get-us-out-of-the-crisis-overwhelmingly-economists-say-yes-143089">Should the government keep running up debt to get us out of the crisis? Overwhelmingly, economists say yes</a>
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<p>Nevertheless, infrastructure projects are generally seen as an important vehicle for responding to the effects of the pandemic. And state government projects count just as much as Commonwealth projects for economic recovery. </p>
<p>However, the federal budget provides little cause for optimism here. The big cities received relatively little infrastructure funding, and certainly very little to overcome current shortfalls. </p>
<p>For instance, the main Sydney project funded was the <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/penrith-press/federal-budget-2020-18-billion-for-western-sydney-airport-metro-line/news-story/dd9db7539ddb760c464cbb3b90199295">St Marys-Western Sydney Airport rail line</a>. However no business case for the line has been released, and it is likely to be a decades-long white elephant with little passenger traffic.</p>
<h2>A case for more federal funding</h2>
<p>The case for more Commonwealth funding of state infrastructure goes beyond helping a post-pandemic recovery. The big cities need funding for public goods such as public housing and mass transport. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-more-housing-stimulus-will-be-needed-to-sustain-recovery-148003">Why more housing stimulus will be needed to sustain recovery</a>
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<p>But developing infrastructure of this kind offers limited opportunities for user-pays financing, especially where current shortfalls are significant. These public-good projects range from relatively small projects such as dedicated cycleways to big-ticket items like Sydney’s<a href="https://www.sydneymetro.info/west/project-overview"> Metro West</a> and Brisbane’s <a href="https://crossriverrail.qld.gov.au/">Cross River Rail</a>, as well as low-job but high-need items like land purchases for new public open space. </p>
<p>The role government played in responding to the pandemic reminded us just how important leadership, accountability and public-sector-led co-ordination are in times of crisis. </p>
<p>Climate change is another crisis that requires such a response, particularly when it comes to infrastructure investment and delivery. Infrastructure that reduces our dependency on carbon involves investment in high-quality public transport, active transport (walking and cycling) and public open spaces.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-can-help-drive-australias-recovery-but-not-with-less-than-2-of-transport-budgets-142176">Cycling and walking can help drive Australia's recovery – but not with less than 2% of transport budgets</a>
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<p>In some areas the private sector is well placed to deliver greener outcomes. But in areas such as transport, open space and housing, government investment must play a central role. The transformation that the challenges of the 21st century demand of us needs bold leadership from our elected officials. </p>
<p>As our research has concluded, a deep analysis of the costs and benefits of big city population growth for state government finances should provide the basis for a new federal-state financial accord that addresses the imbalance of such costs and benefits between the two levels of government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Searle receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.</span></em></p>The states are primarily responsible for providing infrastructure, but lack the budgets, especially since the pandemic hit revenues. Making up the shortfall depends very much on the Commonwealth.Glen Searle, Honorary Associate Professor in Planning, University of Queensland, University of SydneyCrystal Legacy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1442762020-09-13T19:51:23Z2020-09-13T19:51:23ZWhat lies beneath: tunnels for trafficking, or just a subterranean service? Time to rescue these spaces from the conspiracists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352199/original/file-20200811-16-1bt1gkt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=177%2C0%2C2646%2C1812&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A tidal drain at South Yarra, Melbourne, in 2008. The installation of litter-trapping equipment now prevents access.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo: Victoria Kolankiewicz</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Digital communications have <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-conspiracy-theories-on-the-rise-in-the-us-121968">spread conspiracy theories more widely than ever before</a>, particularly in this uncertain and tumultuous year. QAnon, for example, is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-conspiracy-theories-spread-online-its-not-just-down-to-algorithms-133891">a movement</a> that seeks to identify a “deep state” or “global elite” complicit in <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-church-of-qanon-will-conspiracy-theories-form-the-basis-of-a-new-religious-movement-137859">human trafficking, “Pizzagate” and the orchestration of a global pandemic</a>. One conspiracy theory “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-children-rescued-tunnels/fact-check-35000-malnourished-and-caged-children-were-not-recently-rescued-from-tunnels-by-us-military-idUSKBN23M2EL">going viral</a>” is that extensive operations are taking place to rescue children held in secret underground locales beneath densely populated cities. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-conspiracy-theories-spread-online-its-not-just-down-to-algorithms-133891">How conspiracy theories spread online – it's not just down to algorithms</a>
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<p>Tunnel networks beneath major Australian cities such as <a href="https://twitter.com/BushmansMum/status/1287181188860227586">Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/timetowakeupsw1/status/1246785772268683265">Sydney</a> have <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sarah.shanahan.58/posts/10157286425985685">received similar treatment</a>. Misconceptions of their form and purpose are communicated via social media. The stuff of urban legends, once circulated among acquaintances, is now online. </p>
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<p>The misunderstandings of these spaces reveal a more glaring oversight: of wartime histories, transportation follies, essential services and the unique geologies and climates that require drainage infrastructure. These tunnels are hidden by necessity. But they are close enough to the surface to be easily accessible, preventing their use for any large-scale conspiracy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356898/original/file-20200908-20-1652fnm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Facebook post of conspiracy theory linking Melbourne lockdown to children held captive in underground tunnels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356898/original/file-20200908-20-1652fnm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356898/original/file-20200908-20-1652fnm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356898/original/file-20200908-20-1652fnm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356898/original/file-20200908-20-1652fnm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356898/original/file-20200908-20-1652fnm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356898/original/file-20200908-20-1652fnm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356898/original/file-20200908-20-1652fnm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Facebook post linking the Melbourne COVID-19 lockdown to children held captive in underground tunnels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/sarah.shanahan.58/posts/10157286425985685">Facebook</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Why the fixation with tunnels?</h2>
<p>Abandoned or atypical urban spaces have <a href="https://theconversation.com/reopening-londons-mail-rail-why-its-so-hard-to-recreate-the-thrill-of-exploring-urban-ruins-54423">long piqued the public imagination</a>. Sites of abandonment are also associated with notions of freedom and excitement. Urban exploration has increased significantly within the past decade, amplified by social media sharing of imagery and aesthetics. </p>
<p>Rumours abound of complex tunnel networks in major Australian cities, created in the wake of the second world war. Larger air raid shelters were often located close to urban settlement, but escaped use. They remained in public memory as mythology: bunkers can be located across Australia, from Dover Heights in Sydney, to Prospect and Glenelg in Adelaide. <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/the-only-air-raid-pipe-shelters-in-brisbane-still-remain-a-mystery-20190425-p51h4u.html">Over 20 air raid shelters exist in Brisbane alone</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Entrances to air raid shelter at Howard Smith Wharves, Brisbane" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352166/original/file-20200811-22-4u2nru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352166/original/file-20200811-22-4u2nru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352166/original/file-20200811-22-4u2nru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352166/original/file-20200811-22-4u2nru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352166/original/file-20200811-22-4u2nru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352166/original/file-20200811-22-4u2nru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352166/original/file-20200811-22-4u2nru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The entrances to an air raid shelter at Howard Smith Wharves, Brisbane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Air_raid_shelters_at_Howard_Smith_Wharves_in_Brisbane_02.jpg">Kgbo/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The fabled “<a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/north/a-tunnel-in-the-banks-of-the-merri-creek-has-finally-been-filled-in-by-darebin-council/news-story/5c811dc980967ebc61e9321ec222a0b4">Northcote Tunnel</a>” in Melbourne was the subject of decades of rumour. It was eventually found to be the result of a search for an underground stream, not the large-scale 1940s American construction it was said to be. </p>
<p>Tunnels beneath Sydney served similar purposes, either by design or as the result of a failed transport infrastructure project. The St James tunnels are a prime example. This “hidden” space is about to be converted to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/st-james-tunnel-vision-plan-to-revive-abandoned-sydney-railway-20181001-p5073u.html">a tourism precinct</a>. </p>
<p>Beneath the streets of Melbourne, Sydney and beyond, mail and precious cargo were often transported about the city in underground tunnels from nearby railway stations or ports to parliament or the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Post_Office,_Melbourne">General Post Office</a>. </p>
<h2>So what are these spaces used for today?</h2>
<p>Today, urban tunnels carry telecommunications, gas, electricity, water and sewerage infrastructure.</p>
<p>Exact locations remain secret for security and operational reasons. Access is allowed in rare cases. In the case of the <a href="http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthvictoria/sep11/tunnel.htm">Royal Melbourne Hospital steam tunnels</a>, members of the public can book a place on once-yearly tours. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352165/original/file-20200811-24-1b63gmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Partially constructed tunnels and unused platforms at St James railway station, Sydney." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352165/original/file-20200811-24-1b63gmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352165/original/file-20200811-24-1b63gmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352165/original/file-20200811-24-1b63gmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352165/original/file-20200811-24-1b63gmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352165/original/file-20200811-24-1b63gmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352165/original/file-20200811-24-1b63gmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352165/original/file-20200811-24-1b63gmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Partially constructed tunnels and unused platforms at St James railway station, Sydney.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:St_James_Railway_Station_Sydney_IMG_4450_(26443308184).jpg">Beau Giles/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Stormwater drains are most abundant in urban areas; perhaps this is why they feature so heavily in conspiracies. Where depressions, undulations or linear tracts of open space exist in the landscape, a stormwater drain is likely lurking beneath the surface. These drains are needed to divert rainwater from areas where hard surfaces would otherwise lead to flooding. </p>
<p>In Melbourne, the <a href="https://www.melbournewater.com.au/water-data-and-education/water-facts-and-history/history-and-heritage/timeline-our-history">Melbourne and Metropolitan Board of Works</a> started building these drains in the early 20th century. I have explored many of these complex networks, <a href="https://www.melbournewater.com.au/water-data-and-education/water-facts-and-history/flooding/drainage-system">over 1,400 kilometres of drains</a> that span almost all of metropolitan Melbourne and its fringes. These drains are literally beneath the feet of city dwellers: many would be surprised to find that a drain runs <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/a-plan-to-turn-melbournes-elizabeth-street-into-a-rainforest-canal-20150304-13uk1x.html">beneath the major thoroughfare of Elizabeth Street</a>, historically Williams Creek. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1287181188860227586"}"></div></p>
<p>The Metropolitan Water Sewerage and Drainage Board built similar infrastructure in Sydney. Open and closed conduits were built in concrete and brick — as well as bluestone in Melbourne, and limestone in Sydney — throughout the past century. Sydney’s stormwater network <a href="https://www.sydneywater.com.au/sw/water-the-environment/how-we-manage-sydney-s-water/stormwater-network/index.htm">totals 454 kilometres</a> of drains and spans 73 water catchments. These drains ultimately carry <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/where-does-all-the-stormwater-go-after-the-sydney-weather-clears-20150430-1mx4ep.html">500 billion litres into Sydney Harbour or Botany Bay</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-legacy-of-liveable-cities-wont-last-without-a-visionary-response-to-growth-93729">Our legacy of liveable cities won't last without a visionary response to growth</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A drain on the Yarra River in South Yarra" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352197/original/file-20200811-18-1506vqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352197/original/file-20200811-18-1506vqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352197/original/file-20200811-18-1506vqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352197/original/file-20200811-18-1506vqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352197/original/file-20200811-18-1506vqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352197/original/file-20200811-18-1506vqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352197/original/file-20200811-18-1506vqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A tidal drain at South Yarra, Melbourne, in 2008. The installation of litter-trapping equipment now prevents access.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo: Victoria Kolankiewicz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dangerous, yes, but for more mundane reasons</h2>
<p>These hidden spaces <em>can</em> be controversial or dangerous, but not for the reasons put forth by QAnon and its ilk. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-church-of-qanon-will-conspiracy-theories-form-the-basis-of-a-new-religious-movement-137859">The Church of QAnon: Will conspiracy theories form the basis of a new religious movement?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Social groups have emerged around drain exploration, with the Melbourne-based Cave Clan the best-known example. They have clear rules to ensure the safety of their members. “No drains when it rains” is one such rule: sudden rain can catch out explorers as water levels rise quickly inside drains. </p>
<p>Drownings have been reported in both <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/graffiti-drain-survivor-i-wish-i-had-died/news-story/40a663ce61814480552ad5348ea0d698?sv=d13fa3e80fab16b57ee6743c223cf149">Sydney</a> and <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/fears-for-lives-of-underground-explorers/news-story/e9a23d2f83212308d5a3b8928700fa07">Melbourne</a>. The unpredictability of sudden torrential flows means these spaces are fundamentally unsuited to the purposes suggested in conspiracy theories.</p>
<p>Frequent visits by urban explorers would also quickly identify any secretive mis-uses of drainage infrastructure. This would equally apply to other underground spaces such as steam and service tunnels – maintenance staff would soon spot anything amiss.</p>
<p>More crucial, however, is that the design of these drains means they could not play any part in supposed trafficking networks. Some of these drains are large enough for adults to explore. The vast majority, though, are too small to be accessed, with diameters as narrow as 300mm. </p>
<p>Even the most cavernous drains would not be suitable for storage. Larger drains are designed to hold larger flows, often at a confluence of catchment areas. While they these drains <em>could</em> host human beings, they would be at risk of drowning whenever it rained. Tidal flows or litter traps can also prevent access.</p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-tide-is-high-our-sewerage-systems-wont-hold-on-14467">If the tide is high, our sewerage systems won't hold on</a>
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<p>Child trafficking is a very <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-trafficking-and-slavery-still-happen-in-australia-this-comic-explains-how-112294">relevant</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/jeffrey-epsteins-arrest-is-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-human-trafficking-is-the-worlds-fastest-growing-crime-120225">issue</a>, but it is certainly not taking place under cities across the nation. Rather than abandoning subterranean spaces to conspiratorial narratives or urban mythology, these spaces are important for other reasons. These point to the need to build a common understanding not only of their form and function, but also of the ethos underlying their existence, a concern for the common good. </p>
<p>That something as impressive and as everyday as our civic infrastructure inspires such fascination and fear is indeed curious. Ultimately, these spaces are too utilitarian to serve the purpose claimed by viral social media posts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144276/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victoria Kolankiewicz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What was once the stuff of urban legends now spreads virally through social media claims the tunnels beneath our cities are used for child trafficking. The truth is both more mundane and important.Victoria Kolankiewicz, Research Assistant, Australian Centre for Architectural History, Urban and Cultural Heritage, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1421762020-07-22T19:53:12Z2020-07-22T19:53:12ZCycling and walking can help drive Australia’s recovery – but not with less than 2% of transport budgets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348336/original/file-20200720-33-5f1r73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C20%2C4608%2C3428&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/brisbanequeenslandaustralia21-october-2019-aussie-riding-along-1555145036">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>What do <a href="https://bicyclensw.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/966-0320-Summary-of-Principles-for-Good-Bike-Infrastructure-070520.pdf">bike paths</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-temperatures-and-city-economics-a-hidden-relationship-between-sun-and-wind-and-profits-116064">walk-friendly streets</a> have to do with economic recovery from a pandemic-induced <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-will-the-coronavirus-recession-compare-with-the-worst-in-australias-history-136379">recession</a>? How could removing a car parking space <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-13/every-study-ever-conducted-on-the-impact-converting-street-parking-into-bike-lanes-has-on-businesses">benefit a local business</a>? Instead of considering such questions, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486">building roads for cars</a> is often seen as the obvious answer to “kick-start” the economy. </p>
<p>In this article, we explain how cycling and walking infrastructure is a better investment for recovery. Every kilometre walked or cycled has an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2008.11.001">economic</a> <a href="https://www.atap.gov.au/mode-specific-guidance/active-travel/5-estimation-of-benefits">benefit</a> by reducing traffic congestion and vehicle operating costs, improving health and the environment, and saving on infrastructure spending. It’s <a href="https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/disease-prevention/physical-activity/publications/2008/economic-analyses-of-transport-infrastructure-and-policies-including-health-effects-related-to-cycling-and-walking-a-systematic-review">estimated</a> every dollar invested in cycling infrastructure may reap up to five dollars’ worth of benefits.</p>
<p>In Australia, however, walking and cycling only receive between <a href="https://bicyclensw.org.au/lagging-behind-the-pack-correction/">0.1%</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">2%</a> of transport budgets. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
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<p>A sustained lack of investment is one reason only <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyReleaseDate/7DD5DC715B608612CA2581BF001F8404?OpenDocument">5% of trips to work</a> in Australia are by foot or bicycle. Yet the majority of city journeys are <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/-/media/ProgramsandProjects/PlanningHealthyEnvironments/Attachments/vhtransch3.pdf?la=en&hash=BD49C15BA932B97CF11275C5EE7CEA85A17176F3">short enough to walk or cycle</a> for most people. </p>
<p>With <a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">people now shunning public transport</a>, our roads are becoming even more congested. In a win-win scenario, walk-friendly and bike-friendly <a href="https://healthyactivebydesign.com.au/design-features/movement-networks">design</a> can improve driving conditions, because fewer vehicles clog the roads. So instead of just building roads, is now not the time also to invest in <a href="https://healthyactivebydesign.com.au/design-features/movement-networks">proper</a> walking and cycling infrastructure? </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">Cars rule as coronavirus shakes up travel trends in our cities</a>
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<h2>Road building versus path building</h2>
<p>Road building is typically <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486">depoliticised</a> and so is widely <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486">seen as a legitimate way</a> to stimulate economic growth. But simply building more roads may not reduce traffic or speed up journey times in the long term.</p>
<p>Road building leads to more traffic through <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-more-roads-really-mean-less-congestion-for-commuters-39508">induced car use</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486">car dependence</a>. If the default option for short journeys is driving, <a href="https://theconversation.com/rethinking-traffic-congestion-to-make-our-cities-more-like-the-places-we-want-them-to-be-111614">congestion ultimately gets worse</a> as the population grows.</p>
<p>Australians make <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyreleasedate/7DD5DC715B608612CA2581BF001F8404?OpenDocument">three-quarters</a> of all trips to work by car. Most have no passengers. </p>
<p>Yet more than half of car journeys in cities are <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/-/media/ProgramsandProjects/PlanningHealthyEnvironments/Attachments/vhtransch3.pdf?la=en&hash=BD49C15BA932B97CF11275C5EE7CEA85A17176F3">shorter than 5km</a>. These trips would be <a href="https://www.atap.gov.au/mode-specific-guidance/active-travel/5-estimation-of-benefits">well suited to walking and cycling</a>. <a href="https://healthyactivebydesign.com.au/design-features/movement-networks">Safe and enticing</a> walkable streets and cycling paths are key to inducing this swap. </p>
<p>Australia has already committed billions of dollars to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/first-look-inside-sydney-s-3-billion-northconnex-tunnel-20200622-p554zh.html">road-building</a> projects as well as community infrastructure to “<a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=301290454378292&ref=watch_permalink">grow out of the COVID-19 recession</a>”. Ultimately, though, if we want less traffic, we need to invest more of this money in walkable streetscapes and safe separated bike paths. </p>
<p>This investment will increase walking and cycling, leading to the many benefits that flow from these behaviours. And enticing people out of their <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-get-people-out-of-cars-we-need-to-know-why-they-drive-27279">comfy cars</a> for short journeys will result in fewer trips by car. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/do-the-sums-bicycle-friendly-changes-are-good-business-58213">Do the sums: bicycle-friendly changes are good business</a>
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<h2>What transport budgets tell us</h2>
<p>Comparing Australian budgets to other countries’ investment in active transport modes, we’re not doing well. Budgets would have to increase at least tenfold to achieve the United Nations recommendation that <a href="https://europa.eu/capacity4dev/file/31600/download?token=jJbDKsE3">20% of the transport budget</a> be invested in “non-motorised transport”. </p>
<p>And many countries have moved rapidly to commit major investments to cycling and walking since COVID-19. For example, <a href="https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/2020/06/draft-programme-for-govt.pdf">Ireland</a> recently committed <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/06/15/former-bike-shop-owner-soon-to-be-irelands-prime-minister-secures-1-million-a-day-for-5-years-boost-for-walking-and-cycling/#bd04c8a5c012">billions of euros</a> to walking and cycling infrastructure, equivalent to 20% of its transport budget. </p>
<p>Considering our lack of investment, it’s easy to see why Australia is car-dependent. This is despite Australia having both great <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692314001951">weather</a> and <a href="https://bicyclensw.org.au/big-country-wider-car-lanes/">wide roads</a> to accommodate increased space for cycling and walking. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/physical-distancing-is-here-for-a-while-over-100-experts-call-for-more-safe-walking-and-cycling-space-137374">Physical distancing is here for a while – over 100 experts call for more safe walking and cycling space</a>
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<h2>An equity issue</h2>
<p><a href="https://profile.id.com.au/australia/car-ownership">Many</a> Australians, for reasons of disadvantage, disability or age, may not have access to a car. The typical cost of owning a car is <a href="https://www.savings.com.au/car-loans/ongoing-car-costs">A$300 per week</a>. Increasing spending on walking and cycling infrastructure will therefore improve equity by helping low-income earners and others who need inexpensive mobility. </p>
<p>Poor active transport infrastructure disproportionately <a href="https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/321154/On-the-Go-How-women-get-around-our-city.pdf">disadvantages women</a>. They cycle less than men and report a need for the safety of separated cycleways among other infrastructure. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/own-a-bike-you-never-ride-we-need-to-learn-how-to-fail-better-at-active-transport-126112">Own a bike you never ride? We need to learn how to fail better at active transport</a>
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<p>Poor infrastructure also <a href="https://aifs.gov.au/cfca/publications/relationship-between-transport-and-disadvantage-austr">limits</a> children, older adults and people living with a disability from accessing the services they need. Many older Australians depend on public transport and on the quality of the walking environment around their homes and their most common destinations. </p>
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<p>On average, <a href="https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/car-insurance/research/car-accident-statistics.html">three people a day die</a> on Australian roads. Fewer car trips would help reduce the road toll. Similarly, increased investments in separated spaces for cycling and walking, as well as lower speeds on local streets, will reduce collisions between cars and bikes, as well as pedestrian-motorist conflicts. </p>
<h2>COVID-19 provides a unique opportunity</h2>
<p>COVID-19 has led to a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/apr/22/bicycles-are-the-new-toilet-paper-bike-sales-boom-as-coronavirus-lockdown-residents-crave-exercise">boom</a> in bicycle sales, <a href="https://t.co/uzUch4mVEH?amp=1">reduced</a> speed limits, wider footpaths, <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/news-and-events/media-releases/new-pop-up-cycleways-to-help-us-get-back-to-work-and-school">pop-up</a> bicycle <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/car-parks-out-footpaths-and-cycling-lanes-in-as-city-prepares-for-post-covid-commuters-20200507-p54qrp.html">lanes</a>, increased walking and <a href="https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.13405">new cyclists</a>. Some of this has come about following <a href="https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/6736341/why-city-needs-to-be-put-on-a-road-diet/?cs=4464">calls</a> <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-dBhS2mhOX6y8aH6MWYfg1J483Bz8o8j/view">for</a> “<a href="https://www.spaceforhealth.org/">Space For Health</a>”. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-let-coronavirus-kill-our-cities-heres-how-we-can-save-urban-life-137063">We can't let coronavirus kill our cities. Here's how we can save urban life</a>
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<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1278875251414151168"}"></div></p>
<p>We should “<a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=301290454378292&ref=watch_permalink">grow out of the COVID-19 recession</a>” by building back better through investment to sustain this increase in walking and cycling. Our call to action is therefore:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A call to action for COVID-19 Walking and Cycling Infrastructure Investment" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Mclaughlin</span></span>
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<p>While Australia’s cities have invested in walking and cycling during the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s less than some <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/02/10/prime-minister-boris-johnson-pledges-5-billion-in-new-cash-for-buses-and-bicycle-infrastructure/#8b1ff706df6f">other</a> countries have invested. For example, Paris has accelerated the installation of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/04/22/paris-to-create-650-kilometers-of-pop-up-corona-cycleways-for-post-lockdown-travel/#13d8daa654d4">650km</a> of cycleways by removing <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/04/22/paris-to-create-650-kilometers-of-pop-up-corona-cycleways-for-post-lockdown-travel/#13d8daa654d4">72% of its on-street parking</a>. Scotland is proposing to “<a href="https://www.livingstreets.org.uk/media/5413/walk-back-better-national-walking-strategy-delivery-forum-statement.pdf">Walk Back Better</a>” from COVID-19.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1255525752281468936"}"></div></p>
<p>It is good to see investment in Australian cities increasing. But now is the time to help kick-start our COVID-19 recovery by investing more in walking and cycling, and to reap the many benefits for the Australian community.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142176/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Mclaughlin is affiliated with the International Society for Physical Activity and Health. He receives funding from the Priority Research Centre for Health Behaviour at the University of Newcastle and the Hunter Cancer Research Alliance. He is the Secretary of Newcastle Cycleways Movement. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Trevor Shilton is Director of Active Living at the Heart Foundation of Australia. He is affiliated with the International Society for Physical Activity and Health, the International Union for Health Promotion and Education and the Australasian Society for Physical Activity</span></em></p>Investing more in cycling and walking would boost both physical and economic health, with a typical return of $5 for every $1 spent on cycling infrastructure.Matthew Mclaughlin, PhD Candidate, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of NewcastleTrevor Shilton, Adjunct Professor, School of Public Health, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1399672020-06-15T00:55:53Z2020-06-15T00:55:53ZWe may live to regret open-slather construction stimulus<p>Many countries around the world, including Australia, are <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid-19-recession-us-infrastructure-solution/">looking to the construction industry</a> to help rebuild economies. Industry bodies such as the Master Builders Association are <a href="https://www.masterbuilders.com.au/Advocacy/Rebuilding-Australia">strongly urging</a> governments to bring forward spending on already approved infrastructure projects. They also want these projects to be <a href="https://www.hpw.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/3327/opportunitieslocalsuppliers.pdf">unbundled into smaller contract packages</a> so small local businesses and the whole sector get a piece of the pie. </p>
<p>We should not ignore the risks involved in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-14/scott-morrison-jobmaker-fast-track-major-projects-coronavirus/12354094">rush to get the economy going again</a>. We will pay for mistakes made now in the form of debt created by cost blowouts and unscrupulous developers. We will have to live with poor-quality, ill-conceived and environmentally damaging developments for decades.</p>
<p>Of course, construction and infrastructure programs provide us with a powerful stimulus tool. It’s why federal and state governments are <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-commits-another-1-5-billion-for-infrastructure-140717">looking to this sector</a> to drive recovery. The social impact of investing in more construction and infrastructure could certainly <a href="https://www.thefifthestate.com.au/articles/how-we-can-re-build-our-economy-after-covid-19-through-social-procurement-and-construction/.">be significant</a>. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-focus-of-stimulus-plans-has-to-be-construction-that-puts-social-housing-first-136519">Why the focus of stimulus plans has to be construction that puts social housing first</a>
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<p>Construction is one of the country’s largest employers. The sector employs <a href="https://australianjobs.employment.gov.au/jobs-industry/construction">about 1.2 million people</a> directly, and indirectly much more. It’s one of the largest employers of <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/6227.0%7EMay+2013%7EMain+Features%7EApprentices+and+trainees?OpenDocument">apprentices</a>, <a href="https://australianjobs.employment.gov.au/jobs-industry/industry-overview">youth</a> and disadvantaged groups such as <a href="https://www.pwc.com.au/indigenous-consulting/assets/the-contribution-of-the-indigenous-business-sector-apr18.pdf">Indigenous people</a> and <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/construction-industry-absorbing-majority-of-refugee-entrepreneurs">refugees</a>. </p>
<p>Investment in construction flows through the broader economy. The Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/94713ad445ff1425ca25682000192af2/ed6220072793785eca256b360003228f!OpenDocument">estimates</a> every A$1 million spent on construction output generates A$2.9 million in output across the economy as a whole. Every job created in construction leads to another three in the wider economy.</p>
<p>Knowing this, state and local governments are relaxing hard-won controls to <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/accelerated-planning-projects-to-deliver-jobs-and-boost-economy">fast-track projects</a>. Planning ministers are being given <a href="https://www.kwm.com/en/au/knowledge/insights/planning-and-development-during-covid-19-emergency-legislation-20200408">more power to override</a> many of the statutory timeframes that govern normal planning and approval processes. </p>
<h2>Fast-track approach creates risks</h2>
<p>This approach creates many risks as well as many opportunities. If we do not control these risks in our rush to stimulate the economy, we are likely to regret this in future. </p>
<p>While the construction industry includes some world-class firms, the government-commissioned Productivity Commission <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/infrastructure/report">inquiry into infrastructure</a> raised many concerns about the lack of transparency and trust in development and infrastructure approval processes. It noted infrastructure project overruns were common. The extra costs amount to <a href="https://theconversation.com/spectacular-cost-blowouts-show-need-to-keep-governments-honest-on-transport-66394">billions of dollars</a>.</p>
<p>We are already battling a <a href="https://theconversation.com/lack-of-information-on-apartment-defects-leaves-whole-market-on-shaky-footings-127007">crisis of confidence</a> in the residential apartments sector. Poor-quality buildings have devastated people’s lives. In New South Wales, the state government has <a href="https://www.customerservice.nsw.gov.au/about-us/building-commissioner">appointed a building commissioner</a> to clean up the mess. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-nsw-building-law-could-be-a-game-changer-for-apartment-safety-140432">New NSW building law could be a game changer for apartment safety</a>
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<h2>Unscrupulously exploiting a crisis</h2>
<p>Relaxing controls also opens the door to unscrupulous developers to exploit the crisis for their own personal gain. Transparency International’s recent <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Finance_and_Public_Administration/MinisterialStandards/Submissions">submission</a> to a Senate inquiry argues that powerful groups have too often prevailed over public interest. It warns:</p>
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<p>Businesses in highly regulated industries, such as transport, mining, energy and property construction, all actively seek to influence politicians, although the channels of influence vary by industry. </p>
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<p>In some countries we are already seeing developers exploiting the COVID-19 crisis to <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/we-need-to-broaden-the-menu-industry-groups-call-on-ottawa-to-loosen-social-and-financial-requirements-in-187b-infrastructure-plans">argue</a> for relaxation and even removal of regulations put in place to ensure projects contribute positively to the communities in which they are built. A former senior adviser to US President Donald Trump has <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/trump-urged-to-go-for-australian-system-on-infrastructure-20200507-p54qk3">argued</a> that his administration should trigger an emergency override of America’s environmental protection laws and establish “Australian-style permitting”.</p>
<p>If fast-tracked projects are undertaken without appropriate controls purely to boost the economy rather than meet a real community need, then we will be paying for this crisis for far longer than we expect. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-planners-makes-for-poorer-urban-policy-and-future-generations-will-pay-the-price-73186">Sidelining planners makes for poorer urban policy, and future generations will pay the price</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Focus must be on community benefit</h2>
<p>As Elizabeth Mossop warned in her recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pm-wants-to-fast-track-mega-projects-for-pandemic-recovery-heres-why-thats-a-bad-idea-136838">Conversation article</a>, our governments are <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-just-started-well-need-war-bonds-and-stimulus-on-a-scale-not-seen-in-our-lifetimes-137155">committing taxpayers to further debt</a> to stimulate recovery from the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. Infrastructure spending is great for economic stimulus, but it still has to be the right kind of infrastructure that meets local community needs. </p>
<p>Mossop argues for small-scale stimulus projects focused on local small businesses, rather than multinationals, to deliver broad, long-term community value. Investing stimulus funding in local businesses means the money recycles in the community, <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-coronavirus-widens-the-renter-owner-divide-housing-policies-will-have-to-change-135808">reduces inequality</a> and helps meet real community needs. </p>
<p>Of course we need to move quickly to rebuild our economy. But we must also place the community at the heart of any decisions about which projects we push through the system. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pm-wants-to-fast-track-mega-projects-for-pandemic-recovery-heres-why-thats-a-bad-idea-136838">The PM wants to fast-track mega-projects for pandemic recovery. Here's why that’s a bad idea</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We could learn much from the principles of <a href="https://hbr.org/2011/04/urban-acupuncture.html">urban acupuncture</a>, which would advocate a community-based approach to stimulus. It would also warn against awarding contracts to major multinationals. These corporations suck money out of needy communities into the pockets of shareholders with no links to the communities we need to help. </p>
<p><a href="https://ccednet-rcdec.ca/sites/ccednet-rcdec.ca/files/local_procurement_finalforweb.pdf">Research shows</a> procuring from local businesses provides a 77-100% economic advantage and an 80-100% increase in jobs compared to procuring from multinationals. </p>
<p>If stimulus programs follow traditional approaches to infrastructure procurement in Australia, then we will miss an unprecedented opportunity to tackle <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-bureau-of-statistics-didnt-highlight-our-continuing-upward-redistribution-of-wealth-121731">growing inequity</a>. Even before this crisis, many younger and poorer members of our society were <a href="https://theconversation.com/rising-inequality-in-australia-isnt-about-incomes-its-almost-all-about-housing-119872">already being left behind</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Loosemore receives funding from The Australian Research Council</span></em></p>As well as an infrastructure spending boost, governments are fast-tracking approvals. But these processes exist for a reason. If we get projects wrong, we live with the consequences for decades.Martin Loosemore, Professor of Construction Management, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1368382020-05-05T19:52:53Z2020-05-05T19:52:53ZThe PM wants to fast-track mega-projects for pandemic recovery. Here’s why that’s a bad idea<p>Our governments are <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-just-started-well-need-war-bonds-and-stimulus-on-a-scale-not-seen-in-our-lifetimes-137155">committing taxpayers to further debt</a> as part of a planned recovery from the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. Infrastructure spending is great for economic stimulus, but it has to be the right kind of infrastructure. </p>
<p>These are some of our largest public investments, so we want this public money to work a lot harder to create multiple rather than just singular benefits. As well as quickly providing jobs and the economic benefits of solving the problems of transport or energy supply, stimulus projects need to deliver broad, long-term community value, <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-coronavirus-widens-the-renter-owner-divide-housing-policies-will-have-to-change-135808">reduce inequality</a> and help <a href="https://theconversation.com/sorry-to-disappoint-climate-deniers-but-coronavirus-makes-the-low-carbon-transition-more-urgent-135419">counter climate change</a>. </p>
<p>The focus of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-flags-company-tax-cuts-ir-reform-as-key-to-covid-19-economic-recovery-20200417-p54kvq.html">fast-tracked infrastructure spending</a> in the pandemic recovery should be many smaller-scale projects that provide these broader benefits. Hence these projects will provide greater value than the <a href="https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/">transport mega-projects</a> that had already been <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-to-inject-economic-stimulus-by-accelerating-infrastructure-spend-127358">proposed for economic stimulus</a>. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-backs-economic-game-changer-high-speed-rail-as-part-of-pandemic-recovery-20200418-p54l24.html">high-speed rail project</a> Labor has proposed will help decarbonise travel, but it won’t provide enough jobs in the short or medium term. Major road projects will cut commuting time for some drivers, but won’t provide widespread benefits or longer-term employment. New roads also increase emissions and often damage neighbourhoods.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/look-beyond-a-silver-bullet-train-for-stimulus-136834">Look beyond a silver bullet train for stimulus</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Good infrastructure delivers broad benefits</h2>
<p>Infrastructure projects are such significant economic engines they can incorporate community improvement without compromising their other outcomes. </p>
<p>The ways in which projects get planned and implemented hold the key. For example, projects should involve local businesses, give hiring preference to long-term unemployed people and use sustainable materials. </p>
<p>Infrastructure planning can integrate multiple functions. For example, water-management infrastructure (for drainage or flooding) can be designed to include open space, tree cover, recreation and cycleways. Streets can be designed as beautiful public spaces that include pedestrians, cyclists and cars, as well as tree canopy and water storage.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"895711876029349889"}"></div></p>
<p>Good infrastructure used for employment creation and economic recovery looks like <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/New-Deal">Roosevelt’s New Deal</a> of the 1930s. These programs created a legacy of high-quality public infrastructure across the United States. </p>
<p>A “Green New Deal” approach in Australia could focus on smaller-scale projects, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/physical-distancing-is-here-for-a-while-over-100-experts-call-for-more-safe-walking-and-cycling-space-137374">infrastructure to promote walking and cycling</a></p></li>
<li><p>tree planting to <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-solution-to-cut-extreme-heat-by-up-to-6-degrees-is-in-our-own-backyards-133082">reduce heat and store carbon</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-fire-and-flood-how-outer-urban-areas-can-manage-the-emergency-while-reducing-future-risks-131560">land-management strategies to reduce fire and flood risks</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-and-the-economy-we-need-green-stimulus-not-fossil-fuel-bailouts-133492">renewable energy infrastructure</a> of all kinds</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/we-dont-know-what-weve-got-till-its-gone-we-must-reclaim-public-space-lost-to-the-coronavirus-crisis-135817">improvements to public open spaces</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-focus-of-stimulus-plans-has-to-be-construction-that-puts-social-housing-first-136519">retrofitting and enhancing schools</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.greenway.org.au/">multipurpose greenways</a>. </p></li>
</ul>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/N1z0gn5gKRs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This greenway traverses Sydney’s Inner West municipality.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These types of projects are fast to get going and labour-intensive. They can be implemented in both cities and regional areas. These projects can also build longer-term employment capacity and help with the transition of workers out of fossil fuel industry jobs. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-future-of-cities-in-the-face-of-twin-crises-136765">The future of cities in the face of twin crises</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Bigger isn’t necessarily better</h2>
<p>The largest infrastructure projects, like those being proposed, are the riskiest in terms of <a href="https://theconversation.com/spectacular-cost-blowouts-show-need-to-keep-governments-honest-on-transport-66394">cost blowouts</a> and often deliver limited social and environmental value. In many instances their <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23607068?seq=1">claimed economic value is also doubtful</a>, as their costs are modelled inaccurately and their benefits and use are often vastly exaggerated. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/spectacular-cost-blowouts-show-need-to-keep-governments-honest-on-transport-66394">Spectacular cost blowouts show need to keep governments honest on transport</a>
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</em>
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<p>One cause of cost blowouts is that governments are often reluctant to commit to spending in the early stages of major projects. This means commitments are often <a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-evidence-base-for-big-calls-on-infrastructure-costs-us-all-99080">made before projects are well enough understood</a>. Early spending to explore alternatives, understand impacts and consult widely can often <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1745-5871.2009.00606.x">realise projects more quickly and with more predictable outcomes</a> that better serve the public interest.</p>
<p>The Morrison government is promoting the myth of fast-tracking through the cutting of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-25/coronavirus-eeconomy-reforms-usual-suspects/12182786">red tape</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/23/coalition-is-aiming-to-change-australias-environment-laws-before-review-is-finished">green tape</a>. This is not the key to faster project delivery. We have a decent system of development regulation, which attempts to balance the business interests of developers against the public good. The current crisis has illustrated very clearly the importance of the public values of <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-reminds-us-how-liveable-neighbourhoods-matter-for-our-well-being-135806">liveability</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-scorecard-gives-the-health-of-australias-environment-less-than-1-out-of-10-133444">preserving natural resources</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/physical-distancing-is-here-for-a-while-over-100-experts-call-for-more-safe-walking-and-cycling-space-137374">easy access to open space and local centres</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/physical-distancing-is-here-for-a-while-over-100-experts-call-for-more-safe-walking-and-cycling-space-137374">Physical distancing is here for a while – over 100 experts call for more safe walking and cycling space</a>
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</p>
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<p>We must hold all our infrastructure projects to higher standards. Robust planning and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cutting-green-tape-may-be-good-politicking-but-its-bad-policy-here-are-5-examples-of-regulation-failure-137164">environmental regulation are crucial</a> to maximise the public benefit of projects. Effective <a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840">community engagement ultimately leads to smoother implementation</a> and better outcomes. Projects that work within planning regulations <a href="https://www.thefifthestate.com.au/urbanism/planning/fast-tracking-development-in-nsw-genuine-reform-or-rent-seeker-give-away/?ct=t%2821+april+2020%29">move more swiftly into implementation</a> than projects that try to bypass them. </p>
<p>In this pandemic crisis we have seen governments move fast and effectively to change policy and implement large-scale programs to benefit the community. The economic rebuilding forced on us by the pandemic is an opportunity to show the same agility to rethink our approach to infrastructure as an engine to uplift our communities and improve life for all citizens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136838/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Mossop is a founding director of Spackman Mossop Michaels landscape architects in Australia and the USA. </span></em></p>Smaller projects are better for delivering broad, long-term value to communities across the country, reducing inequality and cutting emissions, as well as quickly providing jobs and economic stimulus.Elizabeth Mossop, Dean of Design, Architecture and Building, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1362612020-04-27T20:04:33Z2020-04-27T20:04:33ZIf more of us work from home after coronavirus we’ll need to rethink city planning<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329944/original/file-20200423-47847-13hiwjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-woman-engineer-headphones-sitting-desk-1576629223">Halfpoint/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We have seen an unprecedented rise in the number of people working from home as directed by governments and employers around the world to help stop the spread of COVID-19. </p>
<p>If, as some expect, <a href="https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.theguardian.com/technology/2020/mar/13/covid-19-could-cause-permanent-shift-towards-home-working">people are likely to work from home more often</a> after the pandemic, what will this mean for infrastructure planning? Will cities still need all the multibillion-dollar road, public transport, telecommunications and energy projects, including some already in the pipeline? </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flexible-working-the-neglected-congestion-busting-solution-for-our-cities-122130">Flexible working, the neglected congestion-busting solution for our cities</a>
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<h2>World’s largest work-from-home experiment</h2>
<p>Remote working was <a href="https://www.flexjobs.com/blog/post/flexjobs-gwa-report-remote-growth/">steadily on the rise</a> well before COVID-19. But the pandemic suddenly escalated the trend into the “<a href="https://time.com/5776660/coronavirus-work-from-home/">world’s largest work-from-home experiment</a>”. Many people who have had to embrace remote working during the pandemic might not want to return to the office every day once restrictions are lifted. </p>
<p>They might have found some work tasks are actually easier to do at home. Or they (and their employers) might have discovered things that weren’t thought possible to do from home <em>are</em> possible. They might then question why they had to go into the workplace so often in the first place. </p>
<p>But what impact will this have on our cities? After all, many aspects of our cities were designed with commuting, not working from home, in mind.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-spark-a-revolution-in-working-from-home-are-we-ready-133070">Coronavirus could spark a revolution in working from home. Are we ready?</a>
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<h2>Stress test for NBN and energy networks</h2>
<p>From a telecommunications perspective, the huge increase in people working from home challenges the ways in which our existing networks were designed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.aussiebroadband.com.au/blog/aussie-broadband-reveals-bandwidth-usage-increases-by-25/">Data from Aussie Broadband</a> show evening peak broadband use has increased 25% during the shutdown. Additional daytime increases are expected due to home schooling with term 2 starting.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.communications.gov.au/publications/demand-fixed-line-broadband-australia">Research by the then federal Department of Communications</a> in 2018 estimated the average Australian household would need a maximum download speed of 49Mbps during peak-use times by 2026. If more people work from home after COVID-19, the size and times of peak use might need to be recalculated. </p>
<p>Another factor not modelled by the government research was the potential impact of an increase in <em>uploads</em>. This is a typical requirement for people working from home, as they now send large files via their suburban home networks, rather than their office networks in the city.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-telcos-are-picking-up-where-the-nbn-is-failing-heres-what-it-means-for-you-133905">Coronavirus: telcos are picking up where the NBN is failing. Here's what it means for you</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://octopus.energy/blog/domestic-energy-usage-patterns-during-social-distancing/">Recent research</a> by Octopus Energy in the UK has found domestic energy use patterns have also changed since COVID-19. With more people working from home, domestic energy use in the middle of the day is noticeably higher. Some 30% of customers use an average of 1.5kWh more electricity between 9am and 5pm.</p>
<p>Conversely, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/08/upshot/electricity-usage-predict-coronavirus-recession.html">data</a> from the US show electricity use in city centres and industrial areas has declined over the same period. </p>
<h2>Less commuting means less congestion</h2>
<p>Closer to home, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/how-coronavirus-turned-peak-hour-into-a-sunday-morning-drive-20200402-p54gem.html">new data</a> from HERE Technologies illustrate just how much traffic congestion has eased. </p>
<p>Thursday afternoons from 5-5.15pm are normally the worst time of the week for traffic congestion in Melbourne. Last week the city’s roads recorded the sort of free-flowing traffic usually seen at 9.30am on a Sunday. Just 1.8% of Melbourne’s major roads were congested, a fraction of the usual 19.8% at that time. </p>
<p>All of Australia’s major cities are experiencing similar reductions. Transurban has reported traffic is down 43% on the Melbourne airport toll road, 29% on its Sydney roads and 27% in Queensland. </p>
<p>Passengers are also staying away from public transport in droves. For example, South Australian government <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2020/03/30/the-overland-in-limbo-public-transport-numbers-crash/">statistics</a> for Adelaide show passenger numbers have slumped by 69% for buses, by 74% for trains and by 77% for trams, compared with this time last year.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-public-transport-to-keep-running-operators-must-find-ways-to-outlast-coronavirus-134224">For public transport to keep running, operators must find ways to outlast coronavirus</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What does this mean for infrastructure planning?</h2>
<p>With these trends in mind, future investment in roads, public transport, energy and telecommunications will need to consider the likelihood of more people working from home. </p>
<p>Prior to COVID-19, <a href="https://theconversation.com/amp/flexible-working-the-neglected-congestion-busting-solution-for-our-cities-122130">Melbourne research</a> found 64% of city workers regularly worked from home, but usually only one day a week, even though 50% of their work could be done anywhere. While the changes we are now seeing are a result of extreme circumstances, it is not inconceivable that, on average, everybody could continue to work from home one extra day per week after the pandemic. Even this would have significant implications for long-term urban planning.</p>
<p>The most recent <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0.55.001%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EFeature%20Article:%20Journey%20to%20Work%20in%20Australia%7E40">Australian Census data</a> show 9.2 million people typically commute to work each day. If people worked from home an average of one extra day per week, this would take 1.8 million commuters off the roads and public transport each day.</p>
<p>Many road and public transport projects will be based on forecasts of continuing increases in commuter numbers. If, instead, people work from home more often, this could call into question the need for those projects. </p>
<p>Areas outside city centres would also require more attention, as working from home creates a need for more evenly distributed networks of services for the likes of energy and telecommunications. Interestingly, such a trend could support long-term decentralisation plans, like those outlined in <a href="https://planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/377206/Plan_Melbourne_2017-2050_Strategy_.pdf">Melbourne’s Metropolitan Planning Strategy</a>. And if such change encourages more people to live away from the big cities, it also could help to make housing more affordable. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fancy-an-e-change-how-people-are-escaping-city-congestion-and-living-costs-by-working-remotely-123165">Fancy an e-change? How people are escaping city congestion and living costs by working remotely</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136261/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John L Hopkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After the ‘world’s biggest work-from-home experiment’, many people (and their employers) might decide they needn’t commute every day. If even a fraction do that, infrastructure needs will change.John L Hopkins, Innovation Fellow, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1312102020-02-17T18:54:41Z2020-02-17T18:54:41ZWest Gate Tunnel saga shows risk of ‘lock-in’ on mega-projects pitched by business<p>Victoria’s government <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-builders-threaten-to-tear-up-contract-over-soil-contamination-20200129-p53vo2.html">finds itself in a big hole</a> with its <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/">West Gate Tunnel project</a>. As diggers lie idle in a dispute over what to do with contaminated soil, it’s facing <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/transurban-says-west-gate-tunnel-deadline-is-under-review-20200211-p53zmj.html">long delays</a> and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/premier-doesn-t-rule-out-spending-more-money-on-west-gate-tunnel-20200204-p53xmm.html">billions in extra costs</a>. But the government appears locked into a <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/121515-vic-treasurer-and-his-top-bureaucrat-not-happy-with-latest-audit-report/">contentious project</a> that was put to it as a market-led proposal, an arrangement that <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/unsolicited-proposals-could-be-worse-for-taxpayers-accc-warns-20180830-h14pw2">bedevils transport projects across Australia</a>.</p>
<p>Australian governments look increasingly to <a href="http://www.projectmanagement.ie/blog/megaprojects-10-facts-you-should-know">mega-projects</a> to solve urban and regional transport problems. These projects are city-shaping. They can transform how entire urban regions function. </p>
<p>The public has a clear stake in these projects, but unsolicited market-led proposals are subverting planning processes that are meant to protect the public interest.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/market-led-infrastructure-may-sound-good-but-not-if-it-short-changes-the-public-127603">Market-led infrastructure may sound good but not if it short-changes the public</a>
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<p>Market-led proposals are <a href="https://www.claytonutz.com/knowledge/2014/february/victoria-releases-new-unsolicited-proposal-guideline-for-projects-and-services">unsolicited bids</a> to government by private firms to provide public services or infrastructure. Policies governing market-led proposals were <a href="https://graduates.corrs.com.au/assets/thinking/downloads/whats-next-market-led-proposals-in-aus.pdf">introduced in 2014 and 2015</a> by state governments across Australia to promote innovation in service delivery and value for money for taxpayers.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://thelawreviews.co.uk/edition/the-public-private-partnership-law-review-edition-5/1189694/australia">increasing use</a> of <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/infrastructure-investment/market-led-proposals">market-led proposals</a> for transport mega-projects raises important questions. How are policies governing these managed, to what end, and for whose benefit?</p>
<p>In Melbourne, the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/tunnel-trouble-dan-andrews-and-transurban-face-a-parting-of-the-ways-20200131-p53wjo.html">tensions</a> between toll road operator Transurban and the Victorian government over the West Gate Tunnel highlight a fundamental shortcoming of market-led proposals. Bluntly, these are not suited to the planning of transport mega-projects because governments can become “locked in” with <a href="https://theconversation.com/impending-traffic-chaos-beware-the-problematic-west-gate-tunnel-forecasts-79331">questionable benefits</a>. Lock-in has been <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/b36017">defined</a> as “the escalating commitment of decision-makers to an ineffective course of action”. </p>
<h2>The case of the West Gate Tunnel</h2>
<p>Transurban’s builders of the West Gate Tunnel, John Holland and CPB Contractors, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/more-than-100-west-gate-tunnel-workers-set-to-be-laid-off-20200113-p53r1a.html">laid off 137 workers</a> last month in a dispute about liability for contaminated soil. This is bad press for the state government, which touted <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/about/faqs/west-gate-tunnel/what-job-opportunities-are-there">job creation and training</a> as key project benefits.</p>
<p>The dispute could add to delays and costs on top of two earlier changes related to the project. The first was a ten-year extension to Transurban’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CityLink">CityLink tolling concession</a> that will cost road users <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-19/cost-to-motorists-of-westgate-tunnel-deal-revealed/10915998">billions of dollars</a>. The second was an increase in construction costs from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-12/melbournes-west-gate-tunnel-project-cost-blows-out/9248994">A$5.5 billion to A$6.7 billion</a> to extend tunnels to <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/western-distributor-longer-tunnel-chosen-for-second-river-crossing-project-20160709-gq24uf.html">save a public park</a>.</p>
<p>Explanations for the dispute include the Environmental Protection Authority <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-builders-threaten-to-tear-up-contract-over-soil-contamination-20200129-p53vo2.html">tightening soil disposal requirements</a>, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-in-limbo-as-government-companies-argue-over-contaminated-soil-20200122-p53tnm.html">difficulties determining site conditions</a> during the environmental assessment process, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/west-gate-tunnel-builders-seek-to-terminate-contract-over-pfas/11909402">insufficient foresight and planning for these risks</a>.</p>
<p>Another explanation for what happened is “lock-in”. Evidence of lock-in on the West Gate Tunnel points to deeper systemic problems with market-led proposals for transport mega-projects in general.</p>
<h2>How does lock-in happen?</h2>
<p>Lock-in can occur when powerful corporations partner with governments in circumstances that enable them to exploit vulnerabilities in our public institutions. Some of these vulnerabilities include increasing reliance by governments on private finance, and the short period between elections compared to the time it takes to deliver bold public works programs.</p>
<p>Lock-in happens when the real decision to build a project is made well in advance of processes that are publicly declared to inform that decision. Once governments are locked in to a project, it can make alternatives appear increasingly unviable, if not unthinkable.</p>
<p>There is strong evidence to suggest this happened with the West Gate Tunnel. <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-an-international-pariah-on-west-gate-tunnel-experts-warn-20171207-h00use.html">Significant concerns</a> were raised early on that the project might not provide its claimed public benefits. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/impending-traffic-chaos-beware-the-problematic-west-gate-tunnel-forecasts-79331">Impending traffic chaos? Beware the problematic West Gate Tunnel forecasts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What makes market-led proposals different?</h2>
<p>Market-led proposals differ from government-led projects because planning is effectively outsourced to the private sector. </p>
<p>Market-led proposals also differ from <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/public-private-partnerships.asp">public-private partnerships</a>, like Melbourne’s CityLink tollway. In such cases, government plans these projects, but private firms deliver and operate them. (At least CityLink was part of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/50-years-on-from-the-melbourne-transportation-plan-what-can-we-learn-from-its-legacy-127721">long-standing, if largely discredited, strategic plan</a>.)</p>
<p>Revelations that Transurban acted in <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/tunnel-trouble-dan-andrews-and-transurban-face-a-parting-of-the-ways-20200131-p53wjo.html">secretive and strategic ways</a> to secure support for its West Gate Tunnel raise serious ethical questions. What does it mean to be a “good partner” to government? How should powerful private corporations obtain a “social licence” to operate? </p>
<p>These questions draw attention to problems inherent in Victoria’s opaque market-led proposal process. The government’s caution about the AirRail consortium’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/market-led-infrastructure-may-sound-good-but-not-if-it-short-changes-the-public-127603">unsolicited bid for Melbourne’s airport rail link</a> points toward some of these dangers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transurbans-west-gate-tollway-is-a-road-into-uncharted-territory-89164">Transurban's West Gate tollway is a road into uncharted territory</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s wrong with this approach?</h2>
<p>Government policies for assessing market-led proposals give <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/transurban-the-making-of-a-monster-20160512-gotjm9.html">powerful private firms like Transurban</a> influence over strategic planning. This contrasts with the relatively limited influence granted to affected communities and stakeholder groups advocating for sustainable transport solutions.</p>
<p>Acceptance of Transurban’s bid allowed a multi-billion-dollar toll road to override plans that had been <a href="https://www.viclabor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Victorian-Labor-Platform-2014.pdf">taken to an election</a>. These plans were simpler and far less expensive. The plans had been developed with the local community to better manage freight traffic by <a href="https://www.viclabor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Victorian-Labor-Platform-2014.pdf">upgrading access to existing freeways</a>.</p>
<p>The West Gate Tunnel process involved expedited planning that bypassed broad-based community consultation. John Holland and CPB Contractors were selected in April 2017 “<a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/only-the-best-for-the-west-with-6000-new-jobs/">to get to work</a>” on the project. That was five months before <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/library/environment-effects-statement">public hearings</a> concluded in September. Over 500 submissions were received.</p>
<p>Add to this the suppression of <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/expert-cut-from-toll-road-project-after-warning-tim-pallas-it-did-not-stack-up-20170803-gxoohi.html">independent and critical oversight</a> and a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/voters-need-to-see-light-at-start-of-west-gate-tunnel-20180219-h0wawa.html">heavily redacted</a> business case, and a very concerning picture of Victoria’s market-led process emerges.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840">Sidelining citizens when deciding on transport projects is asking for trouble</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Wanted: an integrated transport plan</h2>
<p>Because governments are ultimately responsible for their partnerships, the Victorian government should demonstrate stronger accountability and leadership. Victorians are still waiting for an integrated transport plan, as is required to be prepared under the <a href="https://transport.vic.gov.au/about/legislation">2010 Transport Integration Act</a>. Instead of outsourcing transport problems to private firms, the government should develop a statewide, genuinely consultative, evidence-based plan.</p>
<p>An integrated transport plan would allow Victorians to see how future mega-projects, regardless of who proposes them, might serve everyone’s interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Whitten has been affiliated with advocacy groups in the planning and transport sector.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Woodcock conducts independent academic research funded by government and industry. He is affiliated with a number of advocacy groups in the planning and transport sector.</span></em></p>States across Australia are increasingly using market-led proposals to build infrastructure. The emerging problems reflect the inherent risks of projects that bypass proper public planning processes.James Whitten, Ph.D Candidate, Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of MelbourneCrystal Legacy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneIan Woodcock, Senior Lecturer, Director of Urban Design, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1310872020-02-05T12:46:55Z2020-02-05T12:46:55ZE-scooters – cities should embrace them<p>Large ungainly versions of the childhood microscooter have started to populate cities around the world. These electric scooters can be seen dotting streets, parks, pavements all over. Many people own them individually, and hire schemes in some cities mean that they are increasingly available for more general use too. </p>
<p>E-scooters are now legal in a growing number of countries, though there are very different rules as to where they can be used. Sometimes, riders are allowed to use pedestrian walks, sometimes roads, and sometimes cycle tracks. But the emerging consensus is that e-scooters should be treated as bicycles. </p>
<p>They seem to be hugely popular. Introduce e-scooters in any city, and demand is instant. Companies like Bird and Lime have sold <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/adeyemiajao/2019/02/01/everything-you-want-to-know-about-scooters-and-micro-mobility/">millions of rides</a>. Assuming that e-scooters replace a share of car traffic, this is a very good reason to welcome them. Yet resistance to this new mode of transport is often significant. Vandalism, cluttering, and reckless riding anger many. It’s no surprise that newspaper headlines have invoked urban “<a href="https://techcrunch.com/2019/06/14/the-electric-scooter-wars-wont-end/">scooter wars</a>”.</p>
<p>Whether you like or hate them, what is certain is that the way transport operates in cities needs to change – they are too crowded and polluted, there are too many accidents, there is too much noise. To make them more liveable, we need more green space and more active transport – walking, cycling or riding electric vehicles. </p>
<p>Given the promises and problems of e-scooters in particular, I’ve been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102230">looking into them</a> more systematically. My research has shown that there are three key areas where they cause problems – but they have fairly easy solutions.</p>
<h2>Conflicts and tensions</h2>
<p>My focus was on ten cities that have introduced them recently: Brisbane, Christchurch, Copenhagen, Dallas, Los Angeles, Málaga, Paris, Stockholm, Vienna and Zurich. I analysed all local news items from these cities discussing e-scooters, to identify the problems encountered and the policy solutions implemented. My results indicate that e-scooters can certainly improve transport systems, and the common gripes and difficulties can be avoided with a few simple policies.</p>
<p>E-scooters cause three main types of conflicts. Most obviously, people are angered by irresponsible use of the scooters. Speeding, drink and reckless riding, or riding on sidewalks or roads greatly annoy other users of the roads. This is related to questions about the safety of e-scooter riders and other transport users, which is the second major issue discussed at length in the news. </p>
<p>Another major source of annoyance is cluttering and vandalism. This is enabled by the way in which e-scooter rental schemes work: rather than having designated pick-up and drop-off areas, they can be found dotted around the city. An app shows users where the nearest scooters are, which you can activate online, use, and drop off wherever you want.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313685/original/file-20200205-149747-1k4sc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313685/original/file-20200205-149747-1k4sc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313685/original/file-20200205-149747-1k4sc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313685/original/file-20200205-149747-1k4sc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313685/original/file-20200205-149747-1k4sc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313685/original/file-20200205-149747-1k4sc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313685/original/file-20200205-149747-1k4sc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Trashed e-scooters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gothenburgswedenaugust-52019-lime-voi-electric-scooters-1473375317">Maria_Gothenburg/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>This system unsurprisingly leads to e-scooters being left in far from ideal places. E-scooters parked on sidewalks, thrown over fences, or ditched into rivers indicate that many of them have short lifetimes, a <a href="https://qz.com/1561654/how-long-does-a-scooter-last-less-than-a-month-louisville-data-suggests/">few months at most</a>.</p>
<p>In response to these gripes, various cities have introduced a wide range of policies, often on an ad hoc basis – meaning that these new rules fairly regularly need to be readjusted. Paris, for example, has repeatedly changed its legislation as to where e-scooters are allowed to drive, and at which speed, and where they should be parked. </p>
<p>Cities also struggle when national legislation prevents meaningful local policy initiatives. Spanish cities, for example, have struggled with this, as councils would like to restrict their use in their extensive pedestrian areas, or allow use only at lower speeds, but may not be able to legally do so because of national laws.</p>
<h2>Three policy suggestions</h2>
<p>My comparative study has allowed me to develop three simple measures that should resolve most of the conflicts surrounding e-scooters. Most important, perhaps, is that cities restrict their use to bicycle infrastructure. E-scooters interfere with traffic flowing at higher or slower speeds when used on roads or sidewalks. To align cyclists with riders, their speeds should be limited at 25 km/h. Cities should also establish designated parking rental areas, ideally every 200m, preferably with options to recharge e-scooters.</p>
<p>The above policies should resolve most e-scooter problems. But cities can and should go further, if they see these vehicles as a catalyst for real urban change.</p>
<p>Yes, e-scooters require additional space. This should not be seen as an obstacle to their use: there is so much promise in the idea of introducing entire car-free “micromobility streets”, where cyclists, pedestrians and e-scooters could share the road. Such streets would invite more vulnerable traffic participants, such as children, to become active transport users: accident risks are vastly reduced. </p>
<p>And where they form networks throughout cities, such streets would make it far more attractive to cycle, walk or ride. This would have the benefit of reducing the pressure on existing transport systems, improving population health, and creating more liveable cities.</p>
<h2>The way ahead</h2>
<p>Re-designating road space is of course not easy. There are many with vested interests who would prefer to keep city systems reliant on the car. But such a re-design would benefit more people in the long run. The car uses more space than such vehicles, pollutes, and causes more severe accidents. And each micromobility user reduces pressure on scarce urban space. A car driven at 50 km/h requires <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13574809.2019.1592664">70 times more</a> space than a cyclist or pedestrian.</p>
<p>Even though my research confirms that there are considerable complaints and issues when it comes to e-scooters, I think that they are an overwhelmingly welcome addition to urban transportation. E-scooters provide an opportunity to re-think urban transport, increase quality of life, and improve city dwellers’ mental and physical health.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131087/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Gössling received funding for earlier research (prior to 2010) from the Norwegian Research Council. </span></em></p>Whether you like or hate them, the way transport operates in cities needs to change.Stefan Gössling, Professor in Service Management and Service Studies, Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1270172019-12-16T19:03:03Z2019-12-16T19:03:03ZAustralian cities pay the price for blocking council input to projects that shape them<p>National, state and city governments aspire to increase prosperity through globally competitive and more liveable cities. Through “world class” infrastructure, buildings and public spaces they aim to increase a city’s competitive advantage in attracting investment and talent. <a href="http://www.pmjournal-digital.com/pmjournal/december_2017___january_2018/MobilePagedArticle.action?articleId=1244171#articleId1244171">Research</a> shows city governments, not states, nearly always deliver these projects overseas. The controversies in the Australian examples are largely the result of excluding local government.</p>
<p>Globally, mixed-use megaprojects have increasingly been seen as vehicles to make cities competitive as well as responding to local transport and housing issues. <a href="http://www.pmjournal-digital.com/pmjournal/december_2017___january_2018/MobilePagedArticle.action?articleId=1244171#articleId1244171">My research</a> for a forthcoming book, Mixed-Use Megaprojects and the Competition for Capital, examines such projects on government land in Sydney, Melbourne, New York and Copenhagen. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/all-the-signs-point-to-our-big-cities-need-for-democratic-metro-scale-governance-92417">All the signs point to our big cities' need for democratic, metro-scale governance</a>
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<h2>What do Australian cities do differently?</h2>
<p>The research examined projects in terms of governance, narrative, urban form, connectivity and public benefit. The findings underscore the argument that <a href="https://www.sgsep.com.au/publications/whats-new/sgs-contributes-to-important-new-book-on-metropolitan-governance">state governments lack the structural capacity or nimbleness</a> to manage the subtle interplay of various place-based programs necessary to coordinate enablers of modern competitiveness.</p>
<p>Compared to developments overseas, the Australian examples have several things in common:</p>
<ul>
<li>more property industry influence</li>
<li>less strategic coordination with other land assets and transport projects</li>
<li>less public benefit outcomes</li>
<li>less commitment to legislated planning frameworks</li>
<li>less engagement with local knowledge.</li>
</ul>
<p>The Barangaroo development in Sydney is perhaps the archetype of these patterns.</p>
<p>Despite much <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/barangaroo-4255">controversy over Barangaroo</a>, one thing can be agreed. The poor relationship between the city and state governments has contributed to a loss of trust in planning. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/barangaroo-the-loss-of-trust-10676">Barangaroo: the loss of trust?</a>
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<h2>Excluding the city is not good policy</h2>
<p>Firstly, this is a skills mistake. The city council has sophisticated capabilities and consistent place-based planning, design and approvals processes. These have been developed over decades. </p>
<p>The city also has established consultation processes and deep experience dealing with a range of stakeholders involved in inner-city development. </p>
<p>When the state intervenes to deliver a project and excludes the city, these processes and their advantages disappear.</p>
<p>Secondly, this is a political mistake. A sophisticated enemy is created that has working relationships with local stakeholders and constituents. With decades of planning work and expert knowledge disregarded, city governments are compelled to scrutinise the process and criticise the state from the sideline. </p>
<p>The City of Sydney appears to be winning the political, if not material, battle of Barangaroo. The <a href="https://meetings.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=118">lord mayor</a> has outlasted seven state premiers in the project’s lifetime along with numerous measures intended to reduce lord mayoral efficacy. </p>
<p>But the battle is the problem and it’s sure to continue under current patterns of (non)rules. Consider the following examples.</p>
<p>The minister for planning is <a href="https://webarchive.nla.gov.au/awa/20110817021058/http://pandora.nla.gov.au/pan/142226/20130814-1220/www.barangaroo.com/media/43967/barangaroo+review+final+report+31+july+2011+compressed.pdf">free to make major changes to the plan without reference to any process</a>. This includes approving the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/30/the-rise-and-rise-of-barangaroo-how-a-monster-development-on-sydney-harbour-just-kept-on-getting-bigger">hotel-in-the-harbour</a> proposal even though it contravened state planning policy. </p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/barangaroo-development-interests-counter-the-public-interest-10837">Barangaroo: Development interests counter the public interest</a>
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<p>This ministerial power makes projects highly sensitive to political fluctuations. <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-the-signs-point-to-our-big-cities-need-for-democratic-metro-scale-governance-92417">Longer-term planning objectives</a> can be destabilised as a result.</p>
<p>The unsolicited proposal process has been another trust-breaker. Traditionally, government established the need for infrastructure within a metropolitan plan. It would call for tenders from the private sector, then evaluated those tenders in a competitive process. Now private sector participants are encouraged to approach government with development “ideas”. </p>
<p>A prime example <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/researchpapers/Documents/unsolicited-proposals/unsolicited%20proposals.pdf">involves the Crown Casino complex</a> at Barangaroo. This proposal required major changes to the approved plan. It more than doubled the allowable floor space of the previous hotel-in-the-harbour proposal it had been encouraged to replace <a href="https://webarchive.nla.gov.au/awa/20110817021058/http://pandora.nla.gov.au/pan/142226/20130814-1220/www.barangaroo.com/media/43967/barangaroo+review+final+report+31+july+2011+compressed.pdf">to restore trust in planning</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/market-led-infrastructure-may-sound-good-but-not-if-it-short-changes-the-public-127603">Market-led infrastructure may sound good but not if it short-changes the public</a>
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<h2>What might city involvement look like?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/copenhagen-port-development/">Copenhagen City & Port Development Corporation</a> is an arm’s length delivery authority, owned 95% by Copenhagen municipality and 5% by the state. It is responsible for delivering a number of mixed-use megaprojects. </p>
<p>As with all city areas, Copenhagen municipality develops the “<a href="https://www.kk.dk/artikel/lokalplaner-trin-trin">Lokalplan</a>” for precincts under standard processes and approves individual buildings and public spaces. <a href="https://byoghavn.dk/nordhavn/">North Harbour</a> has been delivered as adopted in 2009.</p>
<p>In New York, a private developer has delivered the Hudson Yards project above state railyards under the city’s standard planning process (<a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/planning/download/pdf/applicants/applicant-portal/lur.pdf">ULURP</a>). The state’s involvement is limited to the air rights lease. </p>
<p>This did not protect the Hudson Yards project from criticism. Nevertheless, it went through the lengthy standard consultative process and has been delivered according to the rezoning since 2005.</p>
<p>As an aside, the city governments of both European and US cases have adopted mandatory affordable housing laws. They are now delivering 25% in their megaprojects. </p>
<p>As an indulgence, let’s say we were in Copenhagen or New York. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/30/the-rise-and-rise-of-barangaroo-how-a-monster-development-on-sydney-harbour-just-kept-on-getting-bigger">casino complex, hotel-in-the-harbour, or doubling of the site’s floorspace</a> would require revisiting the city’s Lokalplan or ULURP. This process would include public review and approvals by multiple city government agencies. In Sydney, one person, the state minister, decides on major changes to the plan.</p>
<p>This research shows the approaches needed to improve city competitiveness and fairness tend to be done better by city governments than by state governments. Yet in Australia the state has absolute control of these complex, city-based projects. Whether as part of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/metropolitan-governance-is-the-missing-link-in-australias-reform-agenda-55872">new metropolitan sphere of governance</a> or not, it is time to empower local city governments in the transformation of our cities.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/metropolitan-governance-is-the-missing-link-in-australias-reform-agenda-55872">Metropolitan governance is the missing link in Australia's reform agenda</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Harris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Overseas, city-shaping mega-projects are generally overseen by local government, but in Australia state governments often step in and exclude council and community representatives from the process.Mike Harris, Lecturer in Landscape Architecture and Urban Design, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1276032019-12-02T18:13:24Z2019-12-02T18:13:24ZMarket-led infrastructure may sound good but not if it short-changes the public<p>The privatisation of services in Australian cities has weakened public control of key infrastructure. This is likely to accelerate as governments look to market-led proposals to provide infrastructure. </p>
<p>For nearly three decades, the <a href="http://ncp.ncc.gov.au/">rationale for privatisation has been competition</a>. Competition was expected to keep costs down, foster innovation and ensure the public interest was preserved. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stumbling-into-the-future-living-with-the-legacy-of-the-great-infrastructure-sell-off-73850">Stumbling into the future: living with the legacy of the great infrastructure sell-off</a>
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<p>Now, the increasing resort to market-led infrastructure proposals means even the minimal safeguard of “competition” is disappearing. These unsolicited proposals by private firms have not been subject to competitive assessment. </p>
<p>Market-led proposals present a risk for how our cities function. If infrastructure is built in the interests of private actors, the outcomes will favour them, not citizens. Privatising key public assets that are <a href="https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/natural-monopoly/">natural monopolies</a>, such as railways, opens the door to <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rentseeking.asp">rent-seeking</a>.</p>
<p>While allowing governments to conveniently avoid the capital costs appearing on public balance sheets, market-led proposals seem engineered to deliver monopoly rents from users to private interests. </p>
<p>To stop this exploitation, governments need to reassert the public interest in procuring and operating key infrastructure. This includes ensuring new infrastructure is integrated with existing networks and meets the needs of all citizens. Governments must explicitly guard against financial or user-charging arrangements that disguise exploitative rents to private operators.</p>
<p>A lack of transparent government oversight will result in even more public <a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840">protest and resistance</a> in the planning of cities. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840">Sidelining citizens when deciding on transport projects is asking for trouble</a>
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<h2>Who plans the future city?</h2>
<p>Concerns about market-led proposals are important because the planning of Australian cities and regions is no longer the sole domain of government. Often market-led proposals emerge where governments have vacated policy and planning by simply not having a plan. </p>
<p>At the national scale, a consortium of property interests has proposed the <a href="http://www.clara.com.au/the-clara-plan.html">CLARA</a> (Consolidated Land and Rail Australia) project to build high-speed rail between Melbourne and Sydney. The scheme would give the consortium the monopoly right to develop land, building new “CLARA” cities along the route.</p>
<p>In the capital cities, private consortia are filling voids in government planning by proposing, planning and building “city-shaping” infrastructure. We see this in Melbourne, where market-led proposals to build an airport rail link and the <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/about/west-gate-tunnel-authority">West Gate Tunnel</a> have appeared in the absence of a metropolitan transport plan.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-needs-a-big-picture-transport-plan-that-isnt-about-winners-v-losers-65567">Victoria needs a big-picture transport plan that isn't about winners v losers</a>
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<p>Although the Victorian government has been considering preferred options for an airport rail line, a private consortium has produced an unsolicited proposal along an alternative route.</p>
<p>Comprising Melbourne Airport, Southern Cross Station, Metro Trains Australia and IFM Investors, <a href="https://www.airrailmelbourne.com.au/#about">AirRail Melbourne’s</a> A$5 billion bid is being assessed under the Victoria government’s <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/Market-led-Proposals-Guideline-November-2017%20%282%29.pdf">market-led proposal guidelines</a>. </p>
<p>If approved, the AirRail model would hand <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/airport-rail-tunnel-could-come-with-extra-tolls-for-taxpayers-20191113-p53a8f.html">control of a key link in Melbourne’s metropolitan rail network</a> to a private company, allowing monopoly pricing and servicing that puts profit before public interest. The consortium is proposing a fare of up to A$20, thus placing the link outside the zone-based public transport ticketing system. Currently, travel is viewed as a public service available to all passengers at a uniform fare.</p>
<p>In both Sydney and Brisbane, privatised airport rail lines operate on separate fare structures that reflect their private financing.</p>
<h2>Lack of transparency is a problem</h2>
<p>According to the Victorian <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/Market-led-Proposals-Guideline-November-2017%20%282%29.pdf">guidelines</a>, unsolicited proposals are meant to follow “a transparent and fair process while maintaining the highest level of probity and public accountability”. </p>
<p>But there are plenty of examples of problems wrought by market-led proposals. </p>
<p>For instance, just last week the state auditor-general was <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/6-7-billion-west-gate-tunnel-not-value-for-money-says-state-auditor-20191127-p53ehx.html">highly critical</a> of the A$6.7 billion West Gate Tunnel project, which was approved in 2017. This project has been criticised before for <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/costing-of-west-gate-tunnel-is-far-from-transparent-20190314-p5148c.html">lacking transparency about the financial benefits – more than A$37 billion in additional toll revenue – reaped by its proponent</a>, Transurban. </p>
<p>This lack of transparency raises questions about the impacts market-led proposals have on the integrity and effectiveness of infrastructure planning. How can the public interest be defended if the mechanisms in place to ensure this are compromised?</p>
<p>An earlier auditor-general’s <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/20150819-HVHR-process.pdf">report</a> concluded:</p>
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<p>In terms of transparency, government has yet to finalise how it communicates the costs, funding, rationale and expected benefits of committed unsolicited proposals. Current approaches to reporting on infrastructure projects do not adequately convey this information to the community.</p>
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<p>The auditor-general’s <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/market-led-proposals">report on market-led proposals</a> last week also raised doubts about the assessment process for the West Gate Tunnel. The project was nominally “bundled” with the Monash Freeway widening, with the latter gifting its higher benefits to the tunnel project. </p>
<p>Concerns have also been raised at the national level. </p>
<p>In 2016, the chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, Rod Simms, <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/rod-sims-says-government-greed-risks-privatisation-mandate-20161010-gryzvs">warned</a> against a model of privatisation that gives monopolies and oligopolies control over pricing the maintenance of what are really public assets. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-sense-of-the-global-infrastructure-turn-73853">Making sense of the global infrastructure turn</a>
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<h2>Public interest planning must be restored</h2>
<p>We haven’t yet lost all public control of our cities. But if we are not paying attention, the path we are on is a worrying one. </p>
<p>A sure way to avoid further erosion of the public good in infrastructure planning is to abandon the approach of market-led projects. These shadowy, inequitable processes are surely undermining public confidence in the governance of cities, and in government in general. </p>
<p>We urge governments not to further privatise more public, especially monopoly, assets, as proposed in the airport rail bid. Governments must ensure infrastructure is built in the public interest, not shaped by the needs of private capital.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127603/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy has received funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Gleeson receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University currently receives funding from AHURI, the European Commission and the Department of Environment to support Jago Dodson's research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stone has received funding from State agencies for contract research and from the ARC. </span></em></p>Unsolicited market proposals are not transparently assessed. Infrastructure should be built to serve the public interest, not shaped by its private backers, but the checks to ensure this are broken.Crystal Legacy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneBrendan Gleeson, Director, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneJago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityJohn Stone, Senior Lecturer in Transport Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1258152019-10-29T02:30:14Z2019-10-29T02:30:14ZTelstra’s new high-tech payphones are meeting resistance from councils, but why?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298885/original/file-20191028-113962-lo0nuj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C8%2C1902%2C1267&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Telstra's new digital advertising payphones can be found at Melbourne's Bourke Street Mall. In this photo, the older centre booth sits between two of Telstra's larger high-tech booths. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://participate.melbourne.vic.gov.au/advertising-payphones">City of Melbourne</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia is witnessing the first major redesign of the payphone booth since 1983. But Telstra’s new vision is meeting resistance from some councils, and the matter is in the courts.</p>
<p>In an effort to make payphones relevant to the needs of modern Australians, Telstra’s revamped payphones feature mobile charging, Wi-Fi access through <a href="https://www.telstra.com.au/telstra-air">Telstra Air</a> (free or via a Telstra broadband plan, depending on the area), and large digital advertising displays.</p>
<p>Sydney’s Lord Mayor Clover Moore <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/20/telstra-and-city-councils-head-to-court-over-new-3m-tall-phone-booths">described</a> the new booths as “a craven attempt” to profit from “already crowded CBD footpaths”, and a “Trojan horse for advertising”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-australias-digital-divide-fast-for-the-city-slow-in-the-country-ever-be-bridged-60635">Will Australia's digital divide – fast for the city, slow in the country – ever be bridged?</a>
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<p>Under existing Universal Service Obligation (USO) agreements, Telstra has to provide payphones as part of its standard telephone service. The USO is a consumer protection measure that ensures everyone has access to landline telephones and payphones, regardless of where they live or work. Telstra is the sole provider of USO services in Australia. </p>
<p>The USO is funded through an industry levy administered by the <a href="https://acma.gov.au/Industry/Telco/Carriers-and-service-providers/Universal-service-obligation/payphones-universal-service-obligation-acma">Australian Communications and Media Authority</a>. This means registered carriers with revenues over A$25 million per year contribute to the levy, including Telstra. </p>
<h2>The face of the new Aussie payphone</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://exchange.telstra.com.au/modernising-payphones/">blog post</a> last March, a Telstra employee said the new “<a href="https://www.telstra.com.au/consumer-advice/payphones/smart-payphone">smart payphones</a>” provided emergency alerts, multilingual services, and content services including public transport information, city maps, weather, tourist advice, and information on cultural attractions.</p>
<p>The booths are 2.64m tall, 1.09m wide, and are fitted with 75-inch LCD screens on one side. In 2016, 40 payphones were approved by City of Melbourne planners and installed over the following year, marking the start of Telstra’s plans for a nationwide rollout.</p>
<p>Telstra’s submission to the city claimed the booths were “low-impact” infrastructure and therefore planning approval was not required, in accordance with the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Series/C2004A05145">Telecommunications Act 1997 (Cth)</a>.</p>
<p>In 2017, Telstra and outdoor advertising company JC Decaux <a href="https://www.jcdecaux.com.au/press-releases/jcdecaux-renews-long-term-partnership-telstra-reinvent-payphone-australia">announced</a> a partnership to “bring the phone box into the 21st century”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/better-public-wi-fi-in-australia-lets-send-a-signal-17116">Better public Wi-Fi in Australia? Let's send a signal</a>
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<p>It would initially have 1,860 payphones upgraded in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. These five cities represent 64% of the country’s population and 77% of advertising spend.</p>
<h2>Taking matters to court</h2>
<p>Earlier this year, Telstra’s application for 81 new booths was blocked by the City of Melbourne, and the city commenced proceedings in the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal to have the booths redefined as not being low-impact.</p>
<p>Given the council allowed 40 booths to be installed in 2017, it’s unclear why its position has since changed. </p>
<p>In May, Telstra hit back by starting federal court proceedings against the council in an effort to overturn prior proceedings. In June, the Brisbane and Sydney city councils joined the City of Melbourne as co-respondents.</p>
<p>Melbourne Councillor and Chair of Planning Nicholas Reece said the new payphones would create congestion on busy footpaths, describing them as “monstrous electric billboards masquerading as payphones”. </p>
<p>He said the booths were “part of a revenue strategy for Telstra”.</p>
<p>But Telstra <a href="https://exchange.telstra.com.au/modernising-payphones/">claims</a> the new payphones are only 15cm wider than previous ones. A company spokesperson said the extra size was necessary to accommodate fibre connections and other equipment needed to operate the booth’s services. </p>
<h2>Who pays for, and profits from, payphones?</h2>
<p>In 2017, a Productivity Commission inquiry into the USO <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/telecommunications/report">reported</a> an average annual subsidy of A$2,600-50,000 per payphone, funded through the industry levy.</p>
<p>But the levy doesn’t cover the cost of installing and providing advertising on booths. Also, Telstra’s advertising-generated revenue doesn’t directly offset the cost of installing and operating the payphones. </p>
<p>Telstra has advertised on its payphones for the past 30 years. But display screens for advertising on new booths are <a href="https://participate.melbourne.vic.gov.au/advertising-payphones">60% larger</a> than previous ones. </p>
<p>The City of Melbourne is concerned because <a href="https://www.sgsep.com.au/publications/insights/the-economics-of-walking-deserves-far-more-attention">commissioned research</a> by SGS Economics and Planning estimates a 10% reduction in pedestrian flow because of the new booths. This would happen as a result of people getting distracted by the payphone advertising, and would cost the city A$2.1 billion in lost productivity.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/optus-apology-on-coverage-highlights-multi-network-problem-25204">Optus' apology on coverage highlights multi-network problem</a>
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<p>That said, federal legislation doesn’t prevent Telstra from placing advertising on payphones. So the existing court case could hinge on Melbourne city council’s argument that by increasing the size of digital displays, Telstra’s new payphones are no longer low-impact. </p>
<p>The outcome should be known early next year.</p>
<h2>Do we still need payphones?</h2>
<p>At a time when consumers and businesses use about <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/new-report-tracks-internet-activity-on-mobile-and-fixed-lines">24.3 million mobile handsets</a>, it’s reasonable to <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-australias-digital-divide-fast-for-the-city-slow-in-the-country-ever-be-bridged-60635">question whether</a> payphones are still required. </p>
<p>The number of payphones in operation today is sharply down compared with the payphone’s heyday in the early 1990s, when more than 80,000 could be found across Australia.</p>
<p>But there’s strong evidence they continue to supply a vital public service.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298804/original/file-20191027-113991-16vo5j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298804/original/file-20191027-113991-16vo5j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298804/original/file-20191027-113991-16vo5j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298804/original/file-20191027-113991-16vo5j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298804/original/file-20191027-113991-16vo5j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298804/original/file-20191027-113991-16vo5j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298804/original/file-20191027-113991-16vo5j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298804/original/file-20191027-113991-16vo5j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Telstra’s payphones operate in many small regional communities such as Woomera, South Australia. It has a population of less than 200 people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">georgiesharp/flickr</span></span>
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<p>Currently, Telstra provides more than 16,000 public payphones. Last year, these were used to make about 13 million phone calls, of which about 200,000 were emergency calls to 000.</p>
<p>So regardless of the verdict on the Telstra case, the public payphone is and will continue to be an iconic and integral part of our telecommunications landscape.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125815/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark A Gregory has received funding from grant organisations, including the Australian Research Council and the Australian Communications Consumer Action Network. He is the Chair of the Australian Association for Information and Communication Technology and the Managing Editor of the Journal of Telecommunications and the Digital Economy.</span></em></p>The new payphones have Wi-Fi, mobile charging and transport information. But city councils are concerned they’re digital billboards for Telstra, which could cost billions in lost productivity.Mark A Gregory, Associate professor, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1184232019-06-25T14:40:48Z2019-06-25T14:40:48ZKnowing what leads to building collapses can help make African cities safer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280188/original/file-20190619-171200-1puk0mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People gather to look at the debris from a building that collapsed in Nairobi, Kenya in June 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/DAI KUROKAWA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s a sadly familiar image in several developing countries’ media reports: people frantically searching the rubble of a collapsed building for survivors.</p>
<p>The data is disparate and scattered. But what is known confirms what the images tell us: building collapses are a common, tragic occurrence in developing countries’ cities. In Kampala, Uganda, <a href="http://ebooks.iospress.nl/publication/38227">one study</a> counted 54 building collapse deaths and 122 injuries between 2004 and 2008. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284082610_Contemporary_Issues_in_Building_Collapse_and_Its_Implications_for_Sustainable_Development">Another study</a> identified 112 cases in Lagos, Nigeria from December 1978 to April 2008. Between February and May 2019, 29 deaths and 76 injuries <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/201906030071.html">were recorded</a> from 13 building collapse incidents across Nigeria. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Festival_Godwin_Boateng/publication/317291061_The_Collapse_of_Buildings_in_Cities_in_Ghana_Reasoning_Beyond_'Scientism/links/5930aeb245851553b67f297b/The-Collapse-of-Buildings-in-Cities-in-Ghana-Reasoning-Beyond-Scientism.pdf#page=14">Ghana</a> and <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.871.2870&rep=rep1&type=pdf">Kenya</a>, too, have recorded a number of fatal incidents in recent years.</p>
<p>This isn’t a uniquely African problem, though. It <a href="https://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/abs/10.1680/jfoen.17.00019">occurs</a> in the rapidly urbanising parts of Asia as well.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/abs/10.1680/jmuen.17.00033">set out to understand</a> this rather under-researched phenomenon of building collapse in developing countries’ cities. I wanted to know the range of agencies, motivations and causes that propel the widespread creation of unsafe buildings in cities in developing countries. I also wanted to know why so many of these buildings collapse. </p>
<p>This is important because of how quickly cities in the developing world are filling up. Today <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/06/Africa-urbanization-cities-double-population-2050-4%20ways-thrive/">around 40%</a> of those in Africa live in cities – that’s around 500 million people. This is <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/06/Africa-urbanization-cities-double-population-2050-4%20ways-thrive/">projected to rise</a> to more than 1.4 billion people in the next few decades.</p>
<p><a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/326581468337788007/Building-regulation-for-resilience-managing-risks-for-safer-cities">Urbanisation is here to stay</a>. It’s up to authorities to make sure that the people arriving in their cities don’t end up suffering such incidents.</p>
<h2>The “pathology” of cities</h2>
<p>Studies suggest that the social problems experienced in cities usually have a uniquely <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Pathologies-Urban-Processes-Kingsley-Haynes/dp/9518480222">“urban” dimension</a>. In this way of thinking, urbanisation processes – the concentration of people and socioeconomic activities in cities – affect the extent to which problems occur and the particular forms they take in those places. Studies of this nature are classified under the broad term <a href="https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/sswa_facpubs/442/">“urban pathology literature”</a>. </p>
<p>I drew on the ideas and methods of urban pathology literature to explore the phenomenon of building collapse in cities in developing countries. To do this, I reviewed contemporary and historic documents on housing and construction, media, scholarly and investigative reports on building collapses and other cognate materials on the growth and development of cities.</p>
<p>Here’s what I found.</p>
<p>The more people come to a city, the more demand for buildings is amplified. People need accommodation, offices, or both. This demand creates pressure from which a range of agencies, motivations and causes arise. And that often encourages shoddy construction and building use practices. Buildings are hastily built. Those which already exist are hastily converted for uses that weren’t built into the original design. Extra floors are added atop old buildings.</p>
<p>Usually, city authorities would step in to enforce safe building regulations and guard against these practices. But too often in the developing world, institutional cultures like corruption and political interference undermine authorities’ responsibilities. Add to that a dearth of building inspectors or other resources, and unsafe building practices multiply. </p>
<p>In the end, huge stocks of unsafe buildings are created, sometimes in hazard-prone locations. This, then, can lead to disaster.</p>
<h2>Understanding context</h2>
<p>All of this means that building collapses in cities are a pathological feature of urbanisation. </p>
<p>One insidious dimension of the problem relates to how socioeconomic inequalities associated with urbanisation processes impede poorer people from finding safe, sturdy accommodation. This exposes them to <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/326581468337788007/Building-regulation-for-resilience-managing-risks-for-safer-cities">tremendous risk</a>, forcing them to either rely on or undertake construction practices that are inherently unsafe. Two issues could be addressed to ease this problem: the high cost of urban land and unfavourable mortgage and credit schemes that lock people out of accessing building or accommodation finance.</p>
<p>Essentially, unless conscious efforts are made to address the building needs of Africa’s urban poor, the creation of unsafe (illegal) buildings in hazard-prone areas cannot be prevented.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118423/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Festival Godwin Boateng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The more people come to a city, the more demand for buildings is amplified.This demand creates pressure from which a range of agencies, motivations and causes arise.Festival Godwin Boateng, PhD Candidate, School of Global Urban & Social Studies, RMIT University-Australia, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1185842019-06-17T19:55:36Z2019-06-17T19:55:36ZHow advertising can repurpose itself to serve cities in more sustainable ways<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279448/original/file-20190613-32331-1025kqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Domino’s Paving for Pizza campaign shrewdly combines promotion of its product with meeting a public need to have potholes repaired. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pavingforpizza.com/">Domino's Pizza</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Noisy, ugly and dirty. Advertising has polluted cities, annoyed consumers, and jeopardised its own existence. Beyond a mass-media cacophony, brand communications’ significant carbon footprint and runaway consumption are certainly contributing to what economists call market failure. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279304/original/file-20190613-32321-jfjdd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279304/original/file-20190613-32321-jfjdd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279304/original/file-20190613-32321-jfjdd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279304/original/file-20190613-32321-jfjdd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279304/original/file-20190613-32321-jfjdd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279304/original/file-20190613-32321-jfjdd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1016&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279304/original/file-20190613-32321-jfjdd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1016&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279304/original/file-20190613-32321-jfjdd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1016&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Advertising, even when not promoting consumption, creates an environmental cost because of its emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the UK, for instance, advertising produces 2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions a year. That’s equivalent to heating 364,000 UK homes for a year, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/business-measure-carbon-impact-advertising">according to CarbonTrack</a>.</p>
<p>In this sense, should messages such as a <a href="https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/about-council/vision-goals/eco-city/climate-change/Pages/act-now.aspx">City of Melbourne campaign</a> inviting people to cycle more even be allowed? On the one hand, it is better to communicate a solution (cycling) to the issue than not. On the other, if the communication contributes to the problem more than the solution, what’s the point of it?</p>
<p>Jerry Seinfeld’s 2014 infamous line at the Clio awards called out the advertising sector to its face:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think spending your life trying to dupe innocent people out of hard-won earnings to buy useless, low-quality, misrepresented items and services is an excellent use of your energy. </p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qJd14f7XUqw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Jerry Seinfeld’s speech about advertising at the 2014 Clio Awards.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Still, contrary to that sentiment, marketers and their brands can (and should) move away from being part of the problem to becoming part of the solution for sustainable development and the industry’s own sustainability.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/post-gillette-other-brands-are-better-at-matching-practice-with-talk-but-dont-get-the-publicity-110595">Post Gillette: other brands are better at matching practice with talk, but don't get the publicity</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Offering a new outlook</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html">urbanisation megatrend</a> wholly underpins other forces shaping the way we live, now and in the future. Although cities occupy only <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-12881779">2% of Earth’s landmass</a>, that is where <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/habitat_2may_cc.pdf">75% of energy consumption</a> occurs. <a href="https://digiday.com/uk/global-state-digital-advertising-5-charts/">Advertising growth is also concentrated in big cities</a>.</p>
<p>Because of increased demand for ever more comfortable lifestyles, urban infrastructures have been feeling “growing pains” for decades now. Whether it’s energy, education, health, waste management or safety, cities’ services are struggling to keep up with their larger and “hungrier” populations. </p>
<p>The strategic opportunity here is to reframe brand communications from the promotion of conspicuous consumption to becoming a regenerative force in the economy of cities. That means using brands’ touch points as more than mere messengers, but rather delivering public utility services. I’ve coined it <a href="https://www.marketingmag.com.au/hubs-c/disruptors-cause-brands-gaining-attention-without-interrupting/">Urban Brand-Utility</a>.</p>
<p>For example, Domino’s Pizza’s <a href="https://www.pavingforpizza.com/">Paving for Pizza</a> program fixes potholes, cracks and bumps said to be responsible for “irreversible damage” to pizzas during the drive home.</p>
<p>This may sound silly, but the US <a href="https://www.pothole.info/the-facts/">National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission</a> estimates that simply to maintain the nation’s highways, roads and bridges requires investment by all levels of government of US$185 billion a year for the next 50 years. Today, the US invests about US$68 billion a year.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279450/original/file-20190614-32317-1ehhexj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279450/original/file-20190614-32317-1ehhexj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279450/original/file-20190614-32317-1ehhexj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279450/original/file-20190614-32317-1ehhexj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279450/original/file-20190614-32317-1ehhexj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279450/original/file-20190614-32317-1ehhexj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279450/original/file-20190614-32317-1ehhexj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279450/original/file-20190614-32317-1ehhexj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Paving for Pizza program fixes potholes that Domino’s says ‘can cause irreversible damage to your pizza during the drive home’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pavingforpizza.com/">Domino's Pizza</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.crosstimbersgazette.com/2018/06/14/dominos-repairs-potholes-in-bartonville-in-new-ad-campaign/">According to Bill Scherer</a>, mayor of Bartonville, Texas: “This unique, innovative partnership allowed the town of Bartonville to accomplish more potholes repairs.” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/06/13/why-i-let-dominos-fill-my-citys-potholes">Eric Norenberg</a>, city manager of Milford, Delaware, said: “We appreciated the extra Paving for Pizza funds to stretch our street repair budget as we addressed more potholes than usual.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/microwave-repairs-might-annihilate-zombie-potholes-once-and-for-all-39160">Microwave repairs might annihilate zombie potholes once and for all</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In Moscow, major Russian real estate developers approached Sberbank to collaborate on better infrastructure planning in residential areas. People’s opinions on local needs fuelled targeted campaigns, promoting loans for small businesses. The “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEcvUQG3EX8&t=9s">Neighbourhoods</a>” campaign generated nine times as many small-business responses as traditional bank loan advertising.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YEcvUQG3EX8?wmode=transparent&start=9" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The ‘Neighbourhoods’ campaign sought people’s opinions on local neighbourhood needs.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In other words, people had their needs met. And neighbourhoods become more attractive as a result. The city increases tax collection from the new businesses being set up, which also reduces the costs of having to deal with derelict areas.</p>
<h2>A shift to serving citizen-consumers</h2>
<p>If we could see ourselves as citizen-consumers, as opposed to individual shoppers in the market, every dollar spent would enable business to tackle the issues that matter most.</p>
<p>Here’s a hypothetical situation. Let’s assume Domino’s Paving for Pizza program is taken to its full potential, generating a large surplus to the City of Bartonville by minimising the costs of repairing potholes. Rather than treating this as a one-off campaign, smart mayors would try to create a virtuous cycle, where the city retains 50% of the surplus, 25% is returned to the advertiser, and 25% goes to the agency and media owner – a value only unlocked by repeating the approach.</p>
<p>This way, marketing budgets are effectively turned into investment funds. The returns are in the form of brand cut-through, happier customers, social impact and more effective city management, as shown in the model below.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279449/original/file-20190614-32317-kibllb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279449/original/file-20190614-32317-kibllb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279449/original/file-20190614-32317-kibllb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279449/original/file-20190614-32317-kibllb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279449/original/file-20190614-32317-kibllb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279449/original/file-20190614-32317-kibllb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279449/original/file-20190614-32317-kibllb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279449/original/file-20190614-32317-kibllb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a circular economy, products and services go beyond an end user’s finite life cycle. Similarly, Urban Brand-Utility looks at brand communications as closed loops by designing a system bigger than fixed campaign periods, target audiences and business-as-usual KPIs.</p>
<p>Brands with some level of foresight will be able to broaden their audiences from customers to citizens and their revenue model from sales to the creation of shared value. These will be game-changers for profit and prosperity.</p>
<p>Markets, choice and competition are not just a consumer’s best friend, but their civic representation. After all, as one of the tribunes asks the crowd in Shakespeare’s Coriolanus: “What is the city but the people?”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118584/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sergio Brodsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Companies have an opportunity to reframe brand communications from the promotion of conspicuous consumption to becoming a regenerative force in urban economies.Sergio Brodsky, Sessional Lecturer, Marketing, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1172442019-05-19T19:37:03Z2019-05-19T19:37:03ZRapid growth is widening Melbourne’s social and economic divide<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275058/original/file-20190517-69209-hyxpdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As one of the fastest-growing cities in the developed world, Melbourne's suburban sprawl has many costs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-melbourne-australia-taken-hot-177735629?src=gAvEuVih4mId5oFz9RLJsA-1-0">Nils Versemann/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Melbourne is growing faster than most cities of similar size in developed countries. Population growth averaged <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/Home/2016%20QuickStats">more than 2.5% a year between 2011 and 2018</a>. </p>
<p>Other international cities that are also known for their livability typically recorded slower population growth than Melbourne. For example, over the decade to 2016, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-14/melbourne-loses-most-liveable-city-title-to-vienna/10117338">Vienna</a> grew <a href="https://www.ceicdata.com/en/austria/population-by-region/population-vienna">about half as fast as Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-most-livable-city-is-not-vancouver-its-calgary-101957">Greater Vancouver</a> about <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/as-sa/fogs/spg/Facts-cd-eng.cfm?GC=5915&GK=CD&Lang=Eng">one-third slower</a>. Vienna and Vancouver are also smaller cities than Melbourne. </p>
<p>Melbourne is also fast becoming an economically and socially polarised city. Cheaper housing may attract people to outer suburban living, but it comes at a price.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-big-cities-are-engines-of-inequality-so-how-do-we-fix-that-69775">Our big cities are engines of inequality, so how do we fix that?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If Melbourne is divided into inner, middle and outer urban areas, each containing about one-third of the city’s jobs, the greatest share of the city’s population (46.6%) lives in the outer local government areas (LGAs). This share is increasing as population grows rapidly, accounting for <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/%20Home/2016%20QuickStats">57.5% of the growth between 2011 and 2016</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274852/original/file-20190516-69213-jun1wc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274852/original/file-20190516-69213-jun1wc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274852/original/file-20190516-69213-jun1wc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274852/original/file-20190516-69213-jun1wc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274852/original/file-20190516-69213-jun1wc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274852/original/file-20190516-69213-jun1wc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274852/original/file-20190516-69213-jun1wc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274852/original/file-20190516-69213-jun1wc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Inner, middle and outer Melbourne, each area holding approximately one-third of jobs in Melbourne.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the same time, these outer LGAs have the fewest jobs per 1,000 residents. Many workers have to make long commuting trips, with associated congestion impacts.</p>
<h2>What are the consequences of this pattern of growth?</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/melbourne-how-big">newly published research</a> examines the capacity of Melbourne residents to capture income, as well as the findings on some important social outcomes. </p>
<p><strong>Population growth and jobs in Melbourne</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275049/original/file-20190517-69182-582byv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275049/original/file-20190517-69182-582byv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275049/original/file-20190517-69182-582byv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=208&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275049/original/file-20190517-69182-582byv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=208&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275049/original/file-20190517-69182-582byv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=208&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275049/original/file-20190517-69182-582byv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275049/original/file-20190517-69182-582byv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275049/original/file-20190517-69182-582byv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/%20Home/2016%20QuickStats">From Australian Bureau of Statistics (n.d.), Quickstats</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over the 1992-2017 period, relative to Victorians as a whole, residents in each of the six fastest-growing outer Melbourne LGAs (Cardinia, Casey, Hume, Melton, Whittlesea and Wyndham) <a href="https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/melbourne-how-big">went backwards in terms of their share of income</a> from economic activity. </p>
<p>The findings at LGA level show a number of quite strong spatial associations. Differences in travel time or distance to central Melbourne have particularly clear impacts. As travel times from an LGA to central Melbourne increase, we see declines in:</p>
<ul>
<li>population and job densities</li>
<li>median house prices</li>
<li>capital stock per person</li>
<li>the proportion of higher educated people</li>
<li>the proportion of jobs that are high-tech</li>
<li>LGA productivity </li>
<li>trust in others </li>
<li>the proportion of people living near public transport, with public transport use to get to work also declining.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Proportion of LGA residents who think most people in general can be trusted</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275051/original/file-20190517-69186-1dr8k5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275051/original/file-20190517-69186-1dr8k5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275051/original/file-20190517-69186-1dr8k5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275051/original/file-20190517-69186-1dr8k5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275051/original/file-20190517-69186-1dr8k5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275051/original/file-20190517-69186-1dr8k5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275051/original/file-20190517-69186-1dr8k5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275051/original/file-20190517-69186-1dr8k5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www2.health.vic.gov.au/about/reporting-planning-data/gis-and-planning-products/geographical-profiles">health.vic</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We see increases in:</p>
<ul>
<li>open space per resident</li>
<li>car use to get to work</li>
<li>the proportion of commutes longer than two hours</li>
<li>reports of heart disease and obesity.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Hectares of public open space per 1,000 residents</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275055/original/file-20190517-69182-3nw5lk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275055/original/file-20190517-69182-3nw5lk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275055/original/file-20190517-69182-3nw5lk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275055/original/file-20190517-69182-3nw5lk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275055/original/file-20190517-69182-3nw5lk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275055/original/file-20190517-69182-3nw5lk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275055/original/file-20190517-69182-3nw5lk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275055/original/file-20190517-69182-3nw5lk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Victorian Planning Authority data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These correlations suggest cheaper housing and better access to open space, which may attract people to outer suburban living, come at a price. These costs are commonly associated with the lower population and job densities at greater distances from central Melbourne. </p>
<p>The fastest-growing outer suburbs tend to show lower levels of some of the drivers or social conditions needed to achieve social inclusion, well-being and health. For example, additional challenges can be seen in <a href="https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/melbourne-how-big">higher levels of child development vulnerability</a>, which tend to lead to early school leaving and youth unemployment. This can reduce the ability of individuals to be productive, while at the same time increasing societal expenses in areas such as welfare payments, health costs, law enforcement and remediation costs of family violence and substance abuse.</p>
<p><strong>Youth (age 15-19) unemployment rates by LGA</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275053/original/file-20190517-69204-1od64v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275053/original/file-20190517-69204-1od64v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275053/original/file-20190517-69204-1od64v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275053/original/file-20190517-69204-1od64v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275053/original/file-20190517-69204-1od64v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275053/original/file-20190517-69204-1od64v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275053/original/file-20190517-69204-1od64v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275053/original/file-20190517-69204-1od64v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www2.health.vic.gov.au/about/reporting-planning-data/gis-and-planning-products/geographical-profiles">health.vic</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Increasing inequality, social, congestion and productivity costs are linked with infrastructure spending that has been too low to meet the needs of the rapidly growing population. The <a href="https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/melbourne-how-big">research</a> suggests a backlog of around A$125 billion to enable the six fastest-growing outer LGAs to achieve growth in gross regional product per resident of working-age population in line with the state average. Additional spending will be needed to cater for subsequent population growth and to tackle problems beyond the six outer growth LGAs, such as traffic congestion and crowded public transport. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/some-suburbs-are-being-short-changed-on-services-and-liveability-which-ones-and-whats-the-solution-83966">Some suburbs are being short-changed on services and liveability – which ones and what's the solution?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can be done about this?</h2>
<p>Steps can be taken to reduce the growing scale of future infrastructure spending. These include a more determined focus on delivering the intent of <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/the-plan">Plan Melbourne 2017-50</a> that Melbourne becomes a more compact city. This would mean a much higher share of population growth is located in inner and middle suburbs with good public transport access, particularly to the CBD and to the inner and middle urban <a href="https://vpa.vic.gov.au/faq/national-employment-innovation-cluster/">National Employment and Innovation Clusters</a> identified in the plan. </p>
<p>Outer urban densities also need to increase. There must be a greater focus on delivering a city of 20-minute neighbourhoods. This calls for higher levels of local services, including bus and active transport opportunities (cycling and walking), provided <a href="https://theconversation.com/build-in-good-services-from-day-one-for-healthier-communities-lessons-from-selandra-rise-58790">in a more timely manner</a>. A focus on big infrastructure projects can crowd out attention on such locally important priorities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-20-minute-city-sounds-good-but-becoming-one-is-a-huge-challenge-80082">A 20-minute city sounds good, but becoming one is a huge challenge</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Regional Victoria can play a <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-how-regional-rail-can-help-ease-our-big-cities-commuter-crush-81902">bigger role in catering for population growth</a>. However, to do so sustainably it needs to substantially increase its non-farm productivity. This was about one-fifth higher than in Melbourne 20 years ago but is now about one-fifth lower, as Melbourne’s knowledge economy has boomed.</p>
<p>The research does not take account of many other impacts of high population growth. Among these are the <a href="https://theconversation.com/elephants-and-economics-how-to-ensure-we-value-wildlife-properly-107184">loss of ecosystem services</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-protect-fresh-food-supplies-here-are-the-key-steps-to-secure-city-foodbowls-114085">loss of food-growing land through urban sprawl</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cape-town-is-almost-out-of-water-could-australian-cities-suffer-the-same-fate-90933">increasing freshwater scarcity</a>, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-our-cities-can-cut-transport-emissions-in-a-hurry-avoid-shift-share-and-improve-106076">transport sector’s greenhouse gas emissions</a>. These issues all have impacts on productivity, health and well-being.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117244/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John and Janet Stanley consult through Stanley and Co and have received indirect research funding support from the Municipal Association of Victoria, as sub-consultants to the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, to undertake some of the early research on which this paper is based. The MAV does not necessarily agree with the findings reported herein.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Brain is Executive Director of the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR), which received financial support from the Municipal Association of Victoria to undertake the early research on which the paper discussed in this article is based. The MAV does not necessarily agree with the findings reported herein.</span></em></p>State and local governments can’t do much about the rapid population growth in Melbourne, but they can take steps to reduce the costs of growing disparities between the outer suburbs and inner city.John Stanley, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of Sydney Business School, University of SydneyJanet Stanley, Principal Research Fellow – Urban Social Resilience, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbournePeter Brain, Executive Director, National Institute of Economic and Industry ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1151382019-05-14T20:15:44Z2019-05-14T20:15:44ZTransport promises for election 2019: the good, the bad and the downright ugly<p>No matter who wins Saturday’s federal election, you can expect to see more cranes on the skyline and hi-viz vests on the roadside. Both major parties are promising to spend big on transport infrastructure: A$42 billion for the Coalition and A$49 billion for Labor. However, many of the favoured projects are unlikely to be completed for years or even decades to come. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-hardly-ever-trust-big-transport-announcements-heres-how-politicians-get-it-right-101246">We hardly ever trust big transport announcements – here's how politicians get it right</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s being promised, and where?</h2>
<p>The types of project each party is promising reflect a now-familiar pattern seen in the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-will-voters-pay-for-an-early-christmas-eight-charts-that-explain-victorias-transport-election-106782">Victorian</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-nsw-election-promises-on-transport-add-up-112531">New South Wales</a> elections. The Coalition will outspend Labor on roads; Labor will outspend the Coalition on public transport.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274293/original/file-20190514-60554-if4z2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274293/original/file-20190514-60554-if4z2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274293/original/file-20190514-60554-if4z2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274293/original/file-20190514-60554-if4z2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274293/original/file-20190514-60554-if4z2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274293/original/file-20190514-60554-if4z2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274293/original/file-20190514-60554-if4z2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274293/original/file-20190514-60554-if4z2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There’s also a story in the details of where the parties are promising to spend. In Victoria, where the Coalition suffered heavy losses in last October’s state election, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/some-seats-are-better-than-others-coalition-sandbagging-key-electorates-with-taxpayer-funds-20190501-p51j6b.html">the federal Coalition has been busy “sandbagging”</a> key seats. Until last weekend, the Coalition had been promising much more than Labor.</p>
<p>Announcements on Sunday changed all that. While the Coalition <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/4bn-bid-to-unlock-road-link-box/news-story/1c4254f3a80bc85dc11e068b9bff62a9">upped its commitment to the East West Link to A$4 billion</a>, this was dwarfed by Labor’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-12/shorten-morrison-pledge-cash-for-melbourne-infrastructure/11105094">A$10 billion pledge for the Suburban Rail Loop</a>. Victoria now stands as the key battleground for transport promises. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/east-west-link-shows-miserable-failure-of-planning-process-40232">East-West Link shows miserable failure of planning process</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Labor is also writing bigger cheques than the Coalition in Queensland, where it <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-12/federal-election-queensland-battleground/10975570">hopes to make big gains</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274294/original/file-20190514-60549-1rw76kx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274294/original/file-20190514-60549-1rw76kx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274294/original/file-20190514-60549-1rw76kx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274294/original/file-20190514-60549-1rw76kx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274294/original/file-20190514-60549-1rw76kx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274294/original/file-20190514-60549-1rw76kx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274294/original/file-20190514-60549-1rw76kx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274294/original/file-20190514-60549-1rw76kx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>There’s some agreement on the big stuff</h2>
<p>Despite their different ideologies and at-risk electorates, there is still much common ground between the parties. Almost one in three of the projects and funding packages that have attracted promises of at least A$50 million are backed by both the Coalition and Labor. Each party has promised almost A$24 billion for these “bilateral” projects – that’s more than half of the Coalition’s total promised transport infrastructure spending and almost half of Labor’s.</p>
<p>The parties are more likely to agree on big projects than small. Bilateral commitments make up almost half of all promises worth at least A$500 million, but less than a third of those below that threshold. For the very largest projects, the level of agreement is somewhere in between – the Coalition and Labor agree on four of the 11 projects attracting commitments of more than A$1 billion. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274295/original/file-20190514-60560-esgadm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274295/original/file-20190514-60560-esgadm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274295/original/file-20190514-60560-esgadm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274295/original/file-20190514-60560-esgadm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274295/original/file-20190514-60560-esgadm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274295/original/file-20190514-60560-esgadm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=637&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274295/original/file-20190514-60560-esgadm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=637&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274295/original/file-20190514-60560-esgadm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=637&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1044051590867378178"}"></div></p>
<h2>But voters are forced to make risky choices, again</h2>
<p>With so much cash on the table, will these vast riches be spent on the right things? </p>
<p>More money for roads and public transport probably sounds fine to most Australians, whether they’re navigating potholed rural roads, stuck behind trucks on regional highways, drumming the steering wheel in clogged city streets, or calling in late on delayed suburban trains. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/congestion-busting-infrastructure-plays-catch-up-on-long-neglected-needs-114598">Congestion-busting infrastructure plays catch-up on long-neglected needs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But are the projects of national significance and therefore worthy of Commonwealth attention? And can they be relied on to return a benefit larger than their cost?</p>
<p>For too many projects, the answers are no and no. Infrastructure Australia (IA) publishes a <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/infrastructure-priority-list.aspx">list of national priorities</a> and evaluates business cases for projects that are “<a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/about/files/IA-Statement-of-Intent-2017-19.pdf">nationally significant or where Commonwealth funding of A$100 million or more is sought</a>”. Most of the commitments above A$100 million in this campaign do not have IA-approved business cases. </p>
<p>Some projects are under evaluation, such as a new bridge in Nowra on the NSW south coast, but the two parties should have waited for IA’s assessment before committing.</p>
<p>Worse still, many promised projects are not even on the national priority list.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274296/original/file-20190514-60541-bw6rss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274296/original/file-20190514-60541-bw6rss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274296/original/file-20190514-60541-bw6rss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274296/original/file-20190514-60541-bw6rss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274296/original/file-20190514-60541-bw6rss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274296/original/file-20190514-60541-bw6rss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274296/original/file-20190514-60541-bw6rss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274296/original/file-20190514-60541-bw6rss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p>For projects attracting commitments of less than A$100 million, most are best left to state governments. The Commonwealth should stick to projects that are important to more than one state or are particularly important to the national economy. </p>
<p>Fixing <a href="https://www.barossaherald.com.au/story/5990686/budget-48-million-roundabout-at-kroemers-crossing/">regional</a> and <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/media-release-labor-will-fix-one-of-adelaides-worst-intersections-saturday-9-march-2019">suburban intersections</a> is important, but it’s hardly of national significance. When federal parties get involved, it starts to smell like pork-barrelling.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-evidence-base-for-big-calls-on-infrastructure-costs-us-all-99080">Missing evidence base for big calls on infrastructure costs us all</a>
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<h2>Some promises are inexcusable</h2>
<p>Throwing taxpayer money at boondoggles is poor governance. Far worse is flagrantly ignoring independent advice and burning cash on projects that we know don’t stack up. Before the 2016 federal election, Grattan Institute reported on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-2016-will-the-infrastructure-promises-meet-australias-needs-61140">outrageous Princes Highway duplication between Winchelsea and Colac</a> in Victoria’s Western District. The Coalition promised this project even though IA determined that it would return only eight cents of value for every dollar spent.</p>
<p>Three years on, lessons still need to be learnt. Labor has committed A$50 million this election to the <a href="https://www.macarthuradvertiser.com.au/story/6092086/labor-pledges-50-million-to-finish-maldon-dombarton-rail-link-project/">Maldon-Dombarton rail link</a> in NSW’s Illawarra region. This <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/files/Maldon-to-Dombarton-summary.pdf">A$806 million project got the thumbs-down</a> in 2017 from IA, which stated that “the project would not justify its costs and would impose a net cost on the Australian economy”. </p>
<p>In exceptional cases, governments may want to fund projects with costs outweighing benefits on equity grounds, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/916-Commonwealth-Orange-Book-2019.pdf#page=63">such as to provide a minimum level of service for rural communities</a>. It is hard to make that case for a commercial freight rail link. </p>
<p>Every dud project built cannibalises a worthy one. Our politicians should stop donning hardhats and promising infrastructure before they’ve done their homework.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p>The major parties are promising tens of billions of dollars in transport spending, but only a handful of projects are on Infrastructure Australia’s national priority list with approved business cases.Greg Moran, Senior Associate, Grattan InstituteJames Ha, Graduate Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1125312019-03-13T19:07:12Z2019-03-13T19:07:12ZHow the NSW election promises on transport add up<p>Sydney is awash with construction activity – new motorways, light rail and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/which-lines-are-priorities-for-sydney-metro-conversion-hint-its-not-bankstown-111844">Metro project</a> are all part of an infrastructure deluge. And as New South Wales voters head to the polls, the two major parties keep raining promises on electorates of ever-larger, ever-faster transport projects.</p>
<p>But with <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/three-in-10-nsw-voters-to-go-early-expert">early voting now open</a>, it’s time to take stock. And Grattan Institute has tallied the numbers to help make sense of it all. </p>
<p>First, the total cost: <a href="https://www.michaeldaley.com.au/our_plan">Labor is promising</a> about A$50 billion of transport projects, and <a href="https://nsw.liberal.org.au/Our-Plans">the Coalition</a> about A$70 billion. And the five largest projects on each side together account for more than three-quarters of the total cost. This matters – the bigger the project, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/cost-overruns-in-transport-infrastructure/">the more likely it’ll go over budget, and in a big way</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/westconnex-audit-offers-another-17b-lesson-in-how-not-to-fund-infrastructure-73206">WestConnex audit offers another $17b lesson in how not to fund infrastructure</a>
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<p>So far, 14 projects have been announced with price tags in the billions of dollars. Each A$1 billion equates to around A$125 from every person in NSW. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2>How different are the party platforms?</h2>
<p>A striking difference between this election and the Victorian election last November is how much the major parties actually agree on. Both support three of the four largest projects. Voters take note: no matter who wins, you can expect to pay for most of the transport infrastructure promises now on offer.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The major difference is in the parties’ positions on roads – especially toll roads. The Coalition is backing the A$14 billion Western Harbour Tunnel & Beaches Link and the A$2.6 billion F6; Labor is promising to scrap them. </p>
<p>Before he resigned as state Labor leader last November, Luke Foley declared that Labor would “unashamedly prioritise public transport over toll roads”. His successor, Michael Daley, appears to have held the course.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The bulk of public transport spending by both sides will be on rail, nearly all of it in Sydney. An exception is the Liberals’ plan for regional fast rail. Sound familiar? Just a few months ago, the then leader of the Victorian Liberals, Matthew Guy, tried to woo voters with a similar promise. </p>
<p>Unlike their southern counterparts, the Berejiklian government is not taking an actual plan to the election, just a commitment to plan. It’s a move they might’ve learned from Victorian Labor Premier <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-22/melbourne-50-billion-dollar-rail-loop-planning-questioned/10385702">Daniel Andrews and his promised A$50 billion rail loop</a>. The NSW Liberals have not provided any cost estimates for fast rail, so Grattan Institute has excluded it from these charts; safe to say, including it would make the Coalition’s total spending promises even more enormous.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-will-voters-pay-for-an-early-christmas-eight-charts-that-explain-victorias-transport-election-106782">How much will voters pay for an early Christmas? Eight charts that explain Victoria’s transport election</a>
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<p>The coming transport infrastructure wave is heavily focused on Sydney. Both parties are set to pour cash into western Sydney, a clear battleground. It’s not surprising that regional NSW gets less of the transport love – voters outside the capital might be more concerned with hospitals and schools than with transport, particularly if they face little congestion. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2>How well justified are these projects?</h2>
<p>Election campaigns can feel like birthday parties, with politicians bestowing gifts upon voters. But these gifts are largely paid for by the taxpayer, or by motorists in the case of tollways. Big infrastructure doesn’t come with a gift receipt; voters need to know in advance whether these projects’ benefits outweigh the costs.</p>
<p>Infrastructure NSW and Infrastructure Australia are two independent bodies that can identify worthy projects and assess business cases. Only two major projects have a tick of approval from either of those bodies – Sydney Metro (City and Southwest sections), and Stage 1 of the F6. </p>
<p>The Coalition supports both of these, whereas Labor supports only the City section of Sydney Metro. It is unclear why Labor would walk away from projects with established net benefits to the community.</p>
<p>Voters should be concerned that the other promised infrastructure is either not recommended or lacks business cases.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>It can be difficult for an opposition to complete a business case, given it doesn’t have access to department resources. The government has no such excuse. Making promises without first scrutinising them forces voters to make risky decisions. Grattan Institute research shows that <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/cost-overruns-in-transport-infrastructure/">cost overruns were 23% higher for projects announced close to an election</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/spectacular-cost-blowouts-show-need-to-keep-governments-honest-on-transport-66394">Spectacular cost blowouts show need to keep governments honest on transport</a>
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<h2>Reforms promise a better way</h2>
<p>Governments should do their due diligence before election time. Fortunately, there are signs of improvement on this score. </p>
<p>Labor is promising to introduce public planning inquiries on projects worth more than A$1 billion. This should help ensure business cases are completed, independently assessed and accessible to the public before projects are approved. When infrastructure is so costly and, at times, controversial, it’s very worthwhile to strive for community support and bipartisanship.</p>
<p>And Labor promises a new level of transparency in how government operates, by bringing in the independent pricing regulator, IPART, and the Auditor-General to shine a light on toll road contracts. </p>
<p>Labor also promises to strengthen the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) so that it runs all year round, not just before elections. Much like the Victorian PBO, this would enable minor parties to have their policies costed as well.</p>
<p>With 30% of voters planning to cast their ballots early this election, the PBO should also be required to publish budget impact statements two weeks before the election, not five days. This would help early voters to make informed decisions, as well as raising public suspicion about any policy announced in the fortnight before election day, too late for costing. </p>
<p>Recent experience suggests that promising splashy projects with big price tags can be very effective at election time. With more accountability and better processes, voters mightn’t be so easily swept off their feet.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-hardly-ever-trust-big-transport-announcements-heres-how-politicians-get-it-right-101246">We hardly ever trust big transport announcements – here's how politicians get it right</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112531/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities. The State Orange Book 2018, from which this article draws, was supported by a grant from the Susan McKinnon Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p>The major parties are promising projects costing tens of billions of dollars, with a surprisingly large overlap between them. Yet only two have been endorsed by infrastructure authorities.Marion Terrill, Transport and Cities Program Director, Grattan InstituteJames Ha, Graduate Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1107772019-02-05T19:07:41Z2019-02-05T19:07:41ZIs social housing essential infrastructure? How we think about it does matter<p>We know that safe, adequate, affordable and <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/40">appropriate housing is essential</a> for our health, well-being and social and economic security. However, even as house prices subside from recent record highs, many Australians <a href="https://www.sgsep.com.au/news/latest-news/rental-affordability-index-november-2018-results-available-now">struggle to obtain the housing they need</a> to be as healthy, well and secure as they could be. An unacceptable number of Australians have <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/lookup/2049.0Media%20Release12016">no home at all</a>.</p>
<p>How Australian governments meet such housing challenges has changed over time. Decades ago, direct investment in publicly owned housing was the core of their response. In the 1950s, state housing authorities <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/165894538?q&versionId=230493987+250305760">built more than 100,000 dwellings</a> — one in eight of all new homes at the time.</p>
<p>Over time, however, <a href="https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/housing/help/ways/social-housing">social housing</a> has been recast as a welfare service. Political support has dwindled. Social housing is <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-to-reboot-affordable-housing-funding-not-scrap-it-72861">starved of funds</a>, <a href="https://eprints.utas.edu.au/6575/">stigmatised</a> and <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/108">residualised</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-to-reboot-affordable-housing-funding-not-scrap-it-72861">Australia needs to reboot affordable housing funding, not scrap it</a>
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<p>Could changing how we think about social housing serve as a starting point for a renaissance? Policy advocates like the Australian Council of Social Service (<a href="https://www.acoss.org.au/media_release/time_to_look_at_real_solutions_to_australias_housing_affordability_crisis_a/">ACOSS</a>) argue that social housing is actually a form of essential infrastructure. This is because it supports economic productivity and a range of other non-shelter outcomes. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/309">Our research</a> has examined whether changing how we think about social housing to see it as infrastructure might provide a pathway to increased investment.</p>
<h2>What’s the evidence for this approach?</h2>
<p>Conceptually, we found a link between social housing and infrastructure: both operate as forms of spatially fixed, durable capital that enable economies and societies to work better. Governments need to be involved in providing infrastructure to realise its full benefits — because of the scale of investment needed and because effects are spread across the community. In the same way, realising all the benefits of social housing requires government involvement.</p>
<p>When we look at history, there is compelling evidence for this. For example, during Australia’s post-war public housing construction boom, governments recognised their investment as necessary to enhance economic productivity, improve public health, and support families to thrive. </p>
<p>Across [Europe], especially in <a href="http://www.housingeurope.eu/resource-1024/why-housing-policy-in-finland-is-a-success-story">Finland</a>, <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/vienna-affordable-housing-paradise_us_5b4e0b12e4b0b15aba88c7b0">Austria</a> and <a href="https://scotland.shelter.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/1218609/Economic_impact_of_housing_investment.pdf/_nocache">Scotland</a>, we see social housing investment today undertaken in support of <a href="https://www.world-habitat.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/03.07.14_Versailles_Second_POWER_HOUSE_Symposium_Report.pdf.pdf">energy sustainability</a>, economic stability, and <a href="http://www.eurocities.eu/minisites/nlao/dmdocuments/EUROCITIES-NLAO%20EU%20Housing%20Report.March2010.pdf">social cohesion</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sustainable-housings-expensive-right-not-when-you-look-at-the-whole-equation-60056">Sustainable housing's expensive, right? Not when you look at the whole equation</a>
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<p>However, if social housing is to be considered as infrastructure, then proponents need to be more conversant with the practices and policies that sustain infrastructure investment. This includes developing credible, costed arguments to demonstrate the benefits of social housing relative to its cost. This isn’t easy — much that is relevant to the purpose of social housing and the people who live in it cannot be quantified or monetised.</p>
<h2>Public infrastructure and private finance</h2>
<p>An even more fundamental challenge arises from prevailing ideas about how infrastructure should be financed and funded.</p>
<p>In infrastructure-speak, “financing” is the provision of money to build and maintain an infrastructure asset, and “funding” is the means of paying the costs of finance. Even as governments <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-sense-of-the-global-infrastructure-turn-73853">pay more attention</a> to infrastructure policy, the prevailing view is that it should be privately financed by institutional investors like banks or super funds. The role of governments, according to this view, should be limited to funding investments where user charges won’t deliver enough return to the investor.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-sense-of-the-global-infrastructure-turn-73853">Making sense of the global infrastructure turn</a>
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<p>This prevailing view comes from a deep-seated belief within Australian governments and the wider community that governments are always fiscally constrained and that the mark of a “good” government is a budget surplus.</p>
<p>These are not just surface beliefs — the norms and practices associated with them are embedded in the way bureaucracies and governments prepare and manage their budgets.</p>
<p>When there is not enough government money to go around, even with a rigorous, costed business case establishing beyond doubt the value of investment in social housing, it might not be recognised as high enough priority for any meaningful level of funding to result.</p>
<p>To change this belief, we need to do more than make a case for social housing as infrastructure. We need to make the case for social housing.</p>
<h2>A vision for social housing</h2>
<p>To make the case, we must confront the politics of housing. The prevailing narratives have benefited powerful <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2014.1000833">interest groups</a> and produced mounting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/09/australian-private-debt-is-the-big-issue-not-government-debt">debt</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-housing-boom-has-driven-rising-inequality-102581">inequality</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/housing-policy-is-captive-to-property-politics-so-dont-expect-politicians-to-tackle-affordability-55384">Housing policy is captive to property politics, so don't expect politicians to tackle affordability</a>
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<p>But we can draw on the historical precedents of policies that created public wealth through public investment in rental housing and expanded opportunities for ownership. We need to make the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-should-the-state-wriggle-out-of-providing-public-housing-79581">case for government</a> to take a stronger, more direct role in infrastructure investment by embracing its role as a patient investor and a deliberate <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/14/australia-is-uniquely-up-to-the-task-of-solving-wicked-problems-around-inequality">co-creator and shaper</a> of markets for specified public purposes. </p>
<p>Direct public investment is also the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-to-triple-its-social-housing-by-2036-this-is-the-best-way-to-do-it-105960">cheapest, most effective way to generate affordable housing supply</a> that meets community needs and delivers vital economic and social benefits.</p>
<p>Engaging with this vision, and what it implies about the role of government in Australia today, offers us the chance to think differently enough about social housing to make not properly investing in it unthinkable.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-to-triple-its-social-housing-by-2036-this-is-the-best-way-to-do-it-105960">Australia needs to triple its social housing by 2036. This is the best way to do it</a>
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<p><em>AHURI is presenting the inaugural Discussion Series event, “Is social housing infrastructure?”, at the State Library Victoria, Melbourne, on Monday, February 11 2019. A second event examining the same research topic will be held in Brisbane in March. More details are available <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/events/discussion-series-melbourne-2019">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110777/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathleen Flanagan receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Martin receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) and Shelter NSW.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie Lawson receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). This research is also part of a larger Inquiry into Social Housing as Infrastructure. All peer reviewed reports and evidence relating to this Inquiry is available on the AHURI website.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Jacobs receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI)</span></em></p>If we recognised social housing as infrastructure as essential as transport links, schools and hospitals, not properly investing in it could become unthinkable.Kathleen Flanagan, Research Fellow & Deputy Director, HACRU, University of TasmaniaChris Martin, Senior Research Fellow, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW SydneyJulie Lawson, Honorary Associate Professor, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityKeith Jacobs, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Housing and Community Research Unit, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.