tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/world-meteorological-organization-9542/articlesWorld Meteorological Organization – The Conversation2022-11-16T20:12:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1946092022-11-16T20:12:55Z2022-11-16T20:12:55ZBehind the scenes: How COP27 reached a deal that supports better monitoring of oceans to curb climate crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495565/original/file-20221116-16-yjn9z8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=54%2C193%2C1946%2C1195&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Anya Waite (second from left) highlights the critical role of the ocean in regulating our climate, and the need to invest in observing oceans that store more than 90 per cent of all carbon, at COP27's Earth Information Day event.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/AlbertSFischer/status/1590331579947442176">(The Global Ocean Observing System)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/behind-the-scenes--how-cop27-reached-a-deal-that-supports-better-monitoring-of-oceans-to-curb-climate-crisis" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>It was 1 a.m. on Nov. 12, in a crowded meeting room on the outskirts of the <a href="https://www.cop27.eg/">COP27 climate conference</a> complex in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. As co-chair of the <a href="https://www.goosocean.org/">Global Ocean Observing System</a> (GOOS), I joined representatives from nations around the world as they inched toward an agreement on how to observe the changing atmosphere, land and ocean more comprehensively to ensure the world can reach its climate targets.</p>
<p>Tabled by the representatives of the <a href="https://enb.iisd.org/negotiations/un-framework-convention-climate-change-unfccc#:%7E:text=">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> (UNFCCC) and the World Meteorological Organization, the agreement would help improve and support the observation of the global climate system, including the oceans that control the climate.</p>
<p>The nations were prepared for these negotiations after COP27’s <a href="https://unfccc.int/event/earth-information-day-2022#:%7E:text=Earth%20Information%20Day%202022%20consisted,ongoing%20work%20under%20the%20UNFCCC.">Earth Information Day</a> event, which I moderated, but there was one hold up: The differences with a handful of nations for whom observation implied scrutiny on hard-to-manage emissions imposed by nations that caused most of the climate damage. It was frustratingly unclear whether the global goal would pass. The UNFCCC negotiators returned to the drawing board — working into the wee hours.</p>
<p>The following day, they emerged in weary triumph with an agreement on global observation. Soon after the agreement was completed, they turned their attention to the challenges of the next week’s COP agreements. Such unseen and often unglamorous efforts underpin the critical work to move nations to agreement at COP27.</p>
<h2>The carbon context</h2>
<p>The global ocean holds <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-net-zero-future-depends-on-the-oceans-ability-to-absorb-carbon-154453">50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and absorbs more carbon than all the rainforests on Earth</a>. To date, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau5153">ocean has absorbed 40 per cent of fossil fuel emissions</a> through chemical processes collectively known as the ocean carbon pump.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The global ocean holds 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and absorbs more carbon than all the rainforests on Earth.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Despite having buffered human carbon emissions since the onset of global warming, the process by which oceans absorb carbon is changing at an uncertain rate. Coastal <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/ecosystems/coastal-blue-carbon/#:%7E:text=Salt%20marshes%2C%20mangroves%2C%20and%20seagrass,hundreds%20to%20thousands%20of%20years.">blue carbon ecosystems such as seagrasses and mangroves lock up critical carbon</a> stores in sediments and conserve a rich biodiversity. </p>
<p>But the largest carbon sink of all is on the high seas — the deep blue carbon embedded in the open ocean as plankton, salts and organic matter. Deep-blue carbon and the associated diverse ecosystems are challenging to observe due to difficulties in terms of access, expensive equipment and the fact that these exist beyond national jurisdictions.</p>
<p>This formal COP agreement provides a strong foundation for nations to act and for policymakers to heed the ocean observation community’s urgent appeal for investment in the internationally-linked observation systems that will resolve these problems. But these requests need to be focused and united — and the science community is anything but that.</p>
<h2>Bridging the science and policy gap</h2>
<p>Scientists, more often than not, have to focus on the technical minutiae of their work, even when attending such broad international meetings as COP27, to remain credible in their field. Intergovernmental work being done by groups like the UNFCCC’s <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/subsidiary-bodies/sbsta">Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice</a> is, often, invisible to them. </p>
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<p>This week at the <a href="https://cop27oceanpavilion.vfairs.com/">Ocean Pavillion at COP27</a>, Nigel Topping, the UK’s COP26 lead, criticized “the narcissism of small differences” in the climate community, highlighting how researchers, NGOs and even governments, sometimes, fail to achieve consensus for climate action because of minor differences in their perspective. </p>
<p>At COP27, achieving <a href="https://www.archdaily.com/991870/during-cop27-the-necessity-to-achieve-net-zero-comes-into-sharp-focus">net-zero emissions is an urgent global necessity</a>. The time to act is now, and the private and public sectors, researchers and policymakers must work together toward this goal. Achieving net-zero within this timeframe will not be possible without a better understanding of <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/oceanography/ocean-earth-system/climate-variability">crucial carbon-absorbing mechanisms</a>. </p>
<p>Ocean and climate forecasters continue to grapple with increasing uncertainty of climate models. But they can rely on strong frameworks from the intergovernmental institutions like the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a>, which is building the bedrock of climate information through regular global assessments. This relies on the careful compilation of scientific knowledge and a remarkable international consensus process that informs governments and other stakeholders of the climate trajectory. </p>
<p>Internationally, several UN agencies have brought together the work of nations to support and inform global action based on the latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">IPCC analysis</a>. The World Meteorological Organization recently launched <a href="https://community.wmo.int/joint-study-group-wmo-greenhouse-gas-monitoring-sg-ghg">a study group</a> that has been working on the development of an international greenhouse gas monitoring system. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.goosocean.org/">Global Ocean Observing System</a> (GOOS), led by UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, has proposed monitoring programs one of which — the <a href="https://www.goosocean.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=298&Itemid=433#:%7E:text=">Ocean Observing Co-Design</a> Program — has hightlighted the importance of ocean carbon observation for the global community.</p>
<h2>Emerging technologies</h2>
<p>Poorly co-ordinated efforts threaten our collective ability to set, track and meet climate targets. They can also hinder the development and scale-up of specific mitigation such as ocean-based <a href="https://www.climateworks.org/programs/carbon-dioxide-removal/oceans/">carbon dioxide removal (CDR)</a>. While using this technology is sometimes controversial, it’s critical if we want to follow what the IPPC says is now necessary.</p>
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<p>To be credible, CDR must be exceptionally well documented and carefully rolled out. It must also scale up quickly enough to impact the global climate. These competing demands are already causing tension within the community.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/Pages/London-Convention-Protocol.aspx">London Protocol</a> — one of the first global conventions adopted by the International Maritime Organization in 1975 to protect the marine environment from human activities — is framing ocean CDR technologies such as <a href="https://web.whoi.edu/ocb-fert/what-is-ocean-fertilization/#:%7E:text=Ocean%20fertilization%20is%20a%20form,down%20atmospheric%20CO2%20levels.">ocean fertilization</a> and <a href="https://oceanvisions.org/ocean-alkalinity-enhancement/">ocean alkalinity enhancement</a>.</p>
<h2>The need for an international climate observatory</h2>
<p>So how do we harness the UN climate frameworks into action? A <a href="https://www.ofi.ca/impact/policy/ocean-carbon/carbon-observatory">carbon or climate observatory</a> could emerge as a first mover for a global observation goal as a mandated observation system under the World Meteorological Organization. It would provide data and measurements to enhance global understanding of oceans’ capacity to continue to absorb carbon.</p>
<p>An international climate observatory would require leading nations to communicate, pool and co-ordinate their already substantial investments and expertise. Nations can draw on existing initiatives, such as the international telescopes or research from the International Space Station.</p>
<p>These commitments need to champion the multiple intergovernmental initiatives under the UNFCCC while maintaining a strong dialogue with the burgeoning private sector. </p>
<p>A new conversation is urgently needed to transform climate action — and the UNFCCC has initiated this conversation at COP27.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anya M. Waite is CEO and Scientific Director of the Ocean Frontier Institute. She volunteers as the Co-Chair of the Global Ocean Observing System, and serves on the WMO's Greenhouse Gas Study Group.</span></em></p>COP27’s agreement on observing the oceans sets a strong foundation for policymakers to invest in internationally linked observation that will help countries better monitor these carbon sinks.Anya M. Waite, CEO and Scientific Director, Ocean Frontier Institute; Professor and Associate VP Research, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1493582020-11-10T18:51:46Z2020-11-10T18:51:46ZNew cyclone forecasts: why impacts should be the focus of hazardous weather warnings<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367160/original/file-20201103-15-e5ddyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C64%2C1576%2C914&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fiji National Disaster Management Office</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>November 12 marks the 50th anniversary of Cyclone Bhola, the deadliest weather event on modern record. </p>
<p>When this storm made landfall over Bangladesh, it coincided with a lunar high tide. The subsequent storm surge killed <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2014RG000477">at least 300,000 people</a>.</p>
<p>This month also marks the start of the cyclone season in the Pacific. The <a href="https://niwa.co.nz/climate/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook-october-2020">outlook</a> suggests New Caledonia should prepare for stronger cyclone activity. New Zealand also faces a higher risk of being battered by ex-tropical cyclones.</p>
<p>In the 50 years since Cyclone Bhola, the accuracy of weather forecasts has improved dramatically. Today’s five-day cyclone forecast is as good as a three-day forecast was 20 years ago. But the way we communicate their risks and impacts is lagging behind. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The World Meteorological Organization is moving to impact-based cyclone forecasting.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The World Meteorological Organization (<a href="https://public.wmo.int/en">WMO</a>) is working with its member countries to change that by shifting to impact-based forecasting — moving from communicating what the weather will be, to what the weather will do. </p>
<h2>Preparing for a storm surge</h2>
<p>Storm surges generated by tropical cyclones are among the world’s <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014RG000477">most deadly and destructive natural hazards</a>. They may have killed as many as <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014RG000477">2.6 million people</a> around the world over the past two centuries. </p>
<p>The warming of the oceans means the world is experiencing <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0">more intense cyclones</a>. Relative to 2000, sea level is expected to rise by 20–30cm by 2050, leaving many coastal communities, especially those in small island nations, increasingly vulnerable to cyclone-generated storm surges.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/storm-warning-a-new-long-range-tropical-cyclone-outlook-is-set-to-reduce-disaster-risk-for-pacific-island-communities-142657">Storm warning: a new long-range tropical cyclone outlook is set to reduce disaster risk for Pacific Island communities</a>
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<p>Traditional hazard-based warnings are based on criteria such as wind speeds or rainfall intensity, but impact-based forecasts focus on the level of damage expected from an impending storm.</p>
<h2>Impact-based forecasts for small island nations</h2>
<p>When Cyclone Winston hit Fiji on February 20, 2016, it was the most intense cyclone ever recorded in the southern hemisphere. </p>
<p>In 2017, the unprecedented hurricane season in the Caribbean unleashed major hurricanes Irma and Maria, devastating many small island countries.</p>
<p>The premise of impact-based forecasting is that a well communicated warning will enable people to make decisions and take actions to reduce their exposure to life-threatening risks. </p>
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<img alt="Damage from Cyclone Winston in Fiji, in February 2016." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368438/original/file-20201110-16-rx2cmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368438/original/file-20201110-16-rx2cmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368438/original/file-20201110-16-rx2cmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368438/original/file-20201110-16-rx2cmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368438/original/file-20201110-16-rx2cmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368438/original/file-20201110-16-rx2cmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368438/original/file-20201110-16-rx2cmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Cyclone Winston was the most intense cyclone recorded in the southern hemisphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fiji National Disaster Management Office</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>But while such warnings may be more effective in increasing awareness of potential impacts, my earlier <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918304011?via%3Dihub">research</a> suggests this does not necessarily translate to more action. </p>
<p>Preparedness is also an essential part of the equation, and can only be achieved by working with communities and emergency services before extreme events. Impact-based forecasting will only be effective if it helps at-risk communities to take action ahead of these impacts. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-model-shows-australia-can-expect-11-tropical-cyclones-this-season-146318">Our new model shows Australia can expect 11 tropical cyclones this season</a>
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<h2>Early-warning systems a priority</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21777#.X4Vk-ZMzZBx">2020 State of Climate Services report</a>, published by the WMO and 15 other agencies last month, suggests impact-based forecasting could be a game-changer for small island nations in the Pacific and Caribbean regions.</p>
<p>Since 1970, small island developing states have lost US$153 billion because of weather, climate and water-related hazards. Almost 90% of small island developing nations have identified early-warning systems as a top priority in their pledges under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a>.</p>
<p>Known as <a href="https://www.pacificclimatechange.net/project/regional-pacific-ndc-hub">nationally determined contributions</a>, or NDCs, these pledges describe efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>While the knowledge of cyclone risk is high in small island developing states, their capacity to communicate impacts and disseminate warnings is <a href="https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10385">lower than the global average</a>. In an interview, the WMO’s chief of early-warning services, Cyrille Honoré, told us the move towards impact-based forecasting should improve the way different agencies can work together to protect vulnerable communities: </p>
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<p>The reason we are introducing impact-based forecasting in small island nations is because it will help to save more lives and better protect assets, infrastructure and livelihoods. In the context of small island nations, these impacts may be significant enough to annihilate years of development efforts, so this is really a contribution to enhancing the resilience of these nations.</p>
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<p>Fiji’s prime minister Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama told us he hopes impact-based forecasting will help Fijians prepare to deal with the new normal of “climate-fuelled, extreme weather patterns”:</p>
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<p>This work to improve cyclone forecasting is vital because it gives us a lifesaving window of opportunity to prepare for a storm’s arrival, allowing relevant authorities to make accurate and timely predictions for better informed decisions.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sally Potter receives research funding from the New Zealand Government through the Resilience to Nature's Challenges programme and the Strategic Science Investment Fund at GNS Science. She is the co-lead of the World Meteorological Organization's High Impact Weather programme Communication Task Team. </span></em></p>At the start of the cyclone season in the Pacific, weather forecasters are changing their warnings to focus less on weather information and more on the damage expected from an impending storm.Sally Potter, Hazard and Risk Management Researcher, GNS ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/869342017-11-06T11:03:39Z2017-11-06T11:03:39Z2017 is set to be among the three hottest years on record<p>The year isn’t over yet, but we can already be sure that 2017 will be among the hottest years on record for the globe. While the global average surface temperature won’t match what we saw in <a href="https://theconversation.com/2016-is-likely-to-be-the-worlds-hottest-year-heres-why-59378">2016</a>, it is now very likely that it will be one of the three warmest years on record, according to a <a href="http://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/2017_provisional_statement_text_-_updated_04Nov2017_1.pdf?7rBjqhMTRJkQbvuYMNAmetvBgFeyS_vQ">statement issued by the World Meteorological Organization</a>.</p>
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<p>What is more remarkable is that this year’s warmth comes without a boost from <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-el-nino-and-la-nina-27719">El Niño</a>. When an El Niño brings warm waters to the tropical east Pacific, we see a transfer of heat from the ocean to the lower atmosphere, which can raise the global average temperatures recorded at the surface by an extra 0.1-0.2°C. But this year’s temperatures have been high even in the absence of this phenomenon.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hot-weather-records-continue-to-tumble-worldwide-86158">Why hot weather records continue to tumble worldwide</a>
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<p>We can already say with confidence that 2017 will end up being the warmest non-El Niño year on record, and that it will be warmer than any year before 2015. The average global temperature between January to September this year was roughly 1.1°C warmer than the pre-industrial average.</p>
<p>This trend is associated with increased greenhouse gas concentrations, and this year we have seen record high global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/world-greenhouse-gas-levels-made-unprecedented-leap-in-2016-86545">biggest recorded surge in CO₂ levels</a>. </p>
<h2>A year of extremes</h2>
<p>Of course, none of us experiences the global average temperature, so we also care about local extreme weather. This year has already seen plenty of extremes.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193371/original/file-20171106-1046-1faoh5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193371/original/file-20171106-1046-1faoh5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193371/original/file-20171106-1046-1faoh5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193371/original/file-20171106-1046-1faoh5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193371/original/file-20171106-1046-1faoh5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193371/original/file-20171106-1046-1faoh5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193371/original/file-20171106-1046-1faoh5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193371/original/file-20171106-1046-1faoh5t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Global sea ice extent continues to decline.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Earth Observatory</span></span>
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<p>At the poles we’ve seen a continuation of the global trend towards reduced sea ice extent. On February 13, global sea ice extent reached its <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/sea-ice-extent-sinks-to-record-lows-at-both-poles">lowest point on record</a>, amid a record low winter for Arctic ice. Since then the Arctic sea ice extent has become less unusual but it still remains well below the satellite-era average. Antarctic sea ice extent also remains low but is no longer at record low levels as it was in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/26/antarctic-sea-ice-levels-hit-record-low-but-experts-are-not-sure-why">February and March</a> of this year.</p>
<p>East Africa saw continued drought with failure of the long rains, coupled with political instability, leading to food insecurity and population displacement, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39338946">particularly in Somalia</a>.</p>
<h2>Storms and fires</h2>
<p>This year also saw a very active North Atlantic hurricane season. Parts of the southern United States and the Caribbean were struck by major hurricanes such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/hurricane-harvey-42406">Harvey</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/hurricane-irma-42848">Irma</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/hurricane-maria-43477">Maria</a>, and are still recovering from the effects. </p>
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<p>Other parts of the globe have seen a quieter year for tropical cyclones.</p>
<p>There have also been several notable wildfire outbreaks around the world this year. In Western Europe, <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-human-fingerprint-on-europe-s-recent-heat">record June heat</a> and very dry conditions gave rise to <a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfires-are-raging-in-the-mediterranean-what-can-we-learn-81121">severe fires in Portugal</a>. This was followed by more severe fires across <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41634125">Spain and Portugal in October</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfires-are-raging-in-the-mediterranean-what-can-we-learn-81121">Wildfires are raging in the Mediterranean. What can we learn?</a>
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<p>Parts of California also experienced <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/california-fire-2017-45193">severe fires</a> following a wet winter, which promoted plant growth, and then a hot dry summer.</p>
<p>Australia is now gearing up for what is forecast to be a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/fire-authorities-brace-for-elevated-risk-across-much-of-eastern-australia-20170904-gyatqp.html">worse-than-average fire season</a> after <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-record-breaking-winter-warmth-linked-to-climate-change-83304">record winter daytime temperatures</a>. A <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">potential La Niña</a> forming in the Pacific and recent rains in eastern Australia may reduce some of the bushfire risk.</p>
<h2>The overall message</h2>
<p>So what conclusions can we draw from this year’s extreme weather? It’s certainly clear that humans are warming the climate and increasing the chances of some of the extreme weather we’ve seem in 2017. In particular, many of this year’s heatwaves and hot spells have <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hot-weather-records-continue-to-tumble-worldwide-86158">already been linked to human-caused climate change</a>.</p>
<p>For other events the human influence is harder to determine. For example, the human fingerprint on East Africa’s drought is uncertain. It is also hard to say exactly how climate change is influencing tropical cyclones, beyond the fact that their impact is likely to be made worse by rising sea levels.</p>
<p>For much of 2017’s extreme weather, however, we can say that it is an indicator of what’s to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86934/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Karoly receives funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and an ARC Linkage grant. He is a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.</span></em></p>This year is poised to go down as the hottest non-El Niño year ever recorded, with record low polar ice and extreme weather that left many regions battling bushfires and hurricanes.Andrew King, Climate Extremes Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneDavid Karoly, Professor of Atmospheric Science, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/865452017-10-31T05:47:01Z2017-10-31T05:47:01ZWorld greenhouse gas levels made unprecedented leap in 2016<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192550/original/file-20171031-18689-lpras9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Human activity, along with a strong El Nino, drove 2016 greenhouse gas levels to new heights.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Dave Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global average carbon dioxide concentrations rose by 0.8% during 2016, the largest annual increase ever observed. According to <a href="https://library.wmo.int/opac/doc_num.php?explnum_id=4022">figures released overnight by the World Meteorological Organisation</a>, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reached 403.3 parts per million. This is the highest level for at least 3 million years, having climbed by 3.3 ppm relative to the 2015 average.</p>
<p>The unprecedented rise is due to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and the strong 2015-16 El Niño event, which reduced the capacity of forests, grasslands and oceans to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192553/original/file-20171031-18720-cclnss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192553/original/file-20171031-18720-cclnss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192553/original/file-20171031-18720-cclnss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192553/original/file-20171031-18720-cclnss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192553/original/file-20171031-18720-cclnss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192553/original/file-20171031-18720-cclnss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192553/original/file-20171031-18720-cclnss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192553/original/file-20171031-18720-cclnss.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Greenhouse gas levels are unprecedented in modern times.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">WMO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The figures appear in the WMO’s annual <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/library/wmo-greenhouse-gas-bulletin">Greenhouse Gas Bulletin</a>. This is the authoritative source for tracking trends in greenhouse gases that, together with temperature-induced increases in atmospheric water vapour, are the major drivers of current climate change.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-hemisphere-joins-north-in-breaching-carbon-dioxide-milestone-59260">Southern hemisphere joins north in breaching carbon dioxide milestone</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Laboratories around the world, including at CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia, measure atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at more than 120 locations. The gases include carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, as well as synthetic gases such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). </p>
<p>At <a href="https://theconversation.com/forty-years-of-measuring-the-worlds-cleanest-air-reveals-human-fingerprints-on-the-atmosphere-68489">Cape Grim</a> in Tasmania, we observed a corresponding increase during 2016 of 3.2 ppm, also the highest ever observed. </p>
<p>For 2017 so far, Cape Grim has recorded a smaller increase of 1.9 ppm. This possibly reflects a reduced impact of El Niño on atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rates this year.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192537/original/file-20171031-18693-1yaebv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192537/original/file-20171031-18693-1yaebv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192537/original/file-20171031-18693-1yaebv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192537/original/file-20171031-18693-1yaebv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192537/original/file-20171031-18693-1yaebv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192537/original/file-20171031-18693-1yaebv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192537/original/file-20171031-18693-1yaebv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192537/original/file-20171031-18693-1yaebv3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Long-term record of background carbon dioxide from Cape Grim, located at the northwest tip of Tasmania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO/BoM</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-three-minute-story-of-800-000-years-of-climate-change-with-a-sting-in-the-tail-73368">roughly 800,000 years</a> before industrialisation began (in around the year 1750), carbon dioxide levels remained below 280 parts per million, as measured by air trapped in Antarctic ice. <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/324/5934/1551.full">Geological records</a> suggest that the last time atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide were similar to current levels was 3-5 million years ago. At that time, the climate was 2-3°C warmer than today’s average, and sea levels were 10 to 20 metres higher than current levels.</p>
<h2>Human-driven change</h2>
<p>The extraordinarily rapid accumulation of CO₂ in the atmosphere over the past 150 years is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf">overwhelmingly and unequivocally due to human activity</a>. </p>
<p>Methane is the second-most-important long-lived greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, with 40% coming from natural sources such as wetlands and termites and <a href="http://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/8/697/2016/">the remaining 60% from human activities</a> including agriculture, fossil fuel use, landfills and biomass burning. </p>
<p>In 2016, global atmospheric methane also hit record levels, reaching 1,853 parts per billion, an increase of 9 ppb or 0.5% above 2015 levels. At Cape Grim, methane levels climbed by 6 ppb in 2016, or 0.3% above 2015 levels. </p>
<p>Nitrous oxide is the third-most-important greenhouse gas, of which [around 60% comes from natural sources such as oceans and soils], and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3763/ghgmm.2010.0007">40% from fertilisers, industrial processes and biomass burning</a>.</p>
<p>In 2016, global atmospheric nitrous oxide hit a record 328.9 ppb, having climbed by 0.8 ppb (0.2%) above 2015 levels. At Cape Grim, we observed the same annual increase of 0.8 ppb.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-three-minute-story-of-800-000-years-of-climate-change-with-a-sting-in-the-tail-73368">The three-minute story of 800,000 years of climate change with a sting in the tail</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If we represent the climate change impact of all greenhouse gases in terms of the equivalent amount of CO₂, then this “CO₂-e” concentration in the atmosphere in 2016 would be 489 ppm. This is fast approaching the symbolic milestone of 500 ppm. </p>
<p>These record greenhouse gas levels are consistent with the observed rise in global average temperatures, which also hit <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/">record levels in 2016</a>. </p>
<p>The only way to reduce the impact is to significantly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. The <a href="http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php">Kyoto Protocol</a> and the subsequent <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Agreement</a> are important first steps in a long and challenging process to reduce such emissions. Their immediate success and ultimate strengthening will be crucial in keeping our future climate in check.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The authors thank <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-etheridge-285942">Dr David Etheridge</a> for his advice on the use of proxy measurements to infer carbon dioxide levels in past atmospheres.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86545/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Fraser receives funding from CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, Department of Environment and Energy, NASA USA via MIT USA, Refrigerant Reclaim Australia</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Krummel receives funding from CSIRO, MIT, NASA, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Department of the Environment and Energy, and Refrigerant Reclaim Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zoe Loh receives funding from CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
</span></em></p>Global greenhouse gas levels have hit their highest point in at least 3 million years, according to new figures from the World Meteorological Organisation.Paul Fraser, Honorary Fellow, CSIROPaul Krummel, Research Group Leader, CSIROZoe Loh, Research Scientist, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/246282014-03-24T19:20:29Z2014-03-24T19:20:29ZGlobal meteorology report puts yet more heat on climate politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44551/original/n2zn2qvc-1395642450.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C31%2C4205%2C2771&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fiery future: evidence is growing of a link between climate change and extreme events.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Dean Lewins</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The new <a href="http://www.wmo.int/pages/about/index_en.html">World Meteorological Organization</a> statement on the <a href="http://library.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=15957">status of the global climate of 2013</a> highlights a fact that some still wilfully prefer to ignore – climate change is already making many extreme heat events worse.</p>
<p>The report by this international authority on the state and behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere brought together scientific papers and reports from around the world, giving a single, consistent picture of 2013. </p>
<p>The statistics rolling out of the WMO report make sobering reading: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Globally, 2013 was the joint sixth-hottest year since records began in 1850. </p></li>
<li><p>The top 15 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998. </p></li>
<li><p>Australia had its <a href="https://theconversation.com/2013-was-australias-hottest-year-warm-for-much-of-the-world-21670">hottest year since records began</a>. </p></li>
<li><p>Persistent heat characterised the year, with long periods of above average temperatures and a lack of cold weather. In this one year, Australia also experienced its <a href="https://theconversation.com/hot-summer-yes-the-hottest-12505">hottest day, week, month and season on record</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These extreme conditions are what we would expect in a warming world. But according to those who choose to sow doubt, these events are nothing more than natural climate variations.</p>
<p>Recent extreme-event attribution studies from credible, scientific sources are combating this doubt.</p>
<h2>Greenhouse gases driving the changes</h2>
<p>Scientific attribution studies typically use climate models to determine the probability of extreme events occurring under different conditions. One way they do this is by modelling the atmosphere with and without greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>By running these models many thousands of times, scientists can calculate how much the risk of extreme events has changed due to increased greenhouse gases generated by humans. </p>
<p>Using this kind of attribution approach, the record 2013 Australian temperatures were examined <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-role-in-our-angry-hot-summer-15596">using a suite of climate model simulations</a>, and the factors contributing to these extreme temperatures were identified. They were consistent with the influence of global warming.</p>
<p>We can even put a number on the increased likelihood. The WM0 report states that the probability of record hot summers like 2013 occurring across Australia increased by at least five times due to the effect of human greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<h2>Heatwaves are no exception</h2>
<p>This study into extreme events in Australia doesn’t just tell us these events are already more likely because of climate change, but also that these warm years are expected to become even more frequent and severe.</p>
<p>And the scientific evidence keeps on coming. </p>
<p>Preliminary results of another study into Australian heatwaves show that the number of events we get every season is increasing and humans have contributed to this. During 2012-2013, Australia had its highest number of heatwaves since 1950, encompassing events during <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs43e.pdf">summer</a> and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs45.pdf">autumn</a>. </p>
<p>Research shows that human activity doubled the chance of this record number of heatwaves occurring in a single summer.</p>
<p>Under hypothetical conditions, in which humans have not added greenhouse gases to our atmosphere, the number of heatwaves we currently experience once every 60 years would only occur once every 120 years. In other words, humans have <a href="http://theconversation.com/if-you-want-to-roll-the-climate-dice-you-should-know-the-odds-6462">loaded the dice</a> towards twice as many sixes being rolled.</p>
<h2>Dangerous policy dismissal</h2>
<p>It is dangerous that influential Australian politicians dismiss the role of climate change in recent extreme events.</p>
<p>In the aftermath of the unusually early New South Wales bushfires in October 2013, Prime Minister Tony Abbott <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/25/australian-wildfires-climate-change-tony-abbott">dismissed the link</a> between extreme fire conditions and climate change as “hogwash”. He then categorically rejected the idea that the fires were a function of climate change.</p>
<p>More remarkably, environment minister Greg Hunt <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-24/hunt-on-bbc/5043324">agreed</a>, citing evidence from Wikipedia in support.</p>
<h2>Pitiless blue sky</h2>
<p>Dorothea Mackellar’s poem, <a href="http://www.dorotheamackellar.com.au/archive/mycountry.htm">My Country</a>, published in 1908, talks of “droughts and flooding rains” and the “pitiless blue sky”, and is often used as the spurious basis for claiming that Australian extremes are just part of natural variation. </p>
<p>Those opposed to global warming science argue that <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/lally-weymouth-an-interview-with-australia-prime-minister-tony-abbott/2013/10/24/f718e9ea-3cc7-11e3-b6a9-da62c264f40e_story_3.html">we have always had fires</a>, droughts and floods. Thus, the logic goes, <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/andrew-bolt-tackles-the-pm-on-the-big-issues/story-fni0ffxg-1226746273889">all weather records will eventually be broken</a>, so don’t worry.</p>
<p>It is <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-been-hot-before-faulty-logic-skews-the-climate-debate-23349">absurd reasoning</a>. </p>
<p>It suggests that if you can find a single similar event in our observed climate record, regardless of its timing, severity or frequency, then it must be nothing more than natural climate variation. Using this faulty reasoning, an out-of-season bushfire cannot be considered significant, and nor can the cascading temperature records of 2013 – despite the fact that they occurred during <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/archive/ensowrap_20121204.pdf">neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation conditions</a> that normally produce milder conditions in Australia.</p>
<h2>Not just guesswork</h2>
<p>It is very unlikely that climate change will produce wholly new and wildly unexpected or exaggerated events, such as a 40°C day recorded on top of Mount Everest. That is not the way climate change works.</p>
<p>Rather, climate change will manifest itself in incremental shifts: changes in the timing of bushfire seasons; more severe, frequent or longer heatwaves; or temperature records that fall more often or by larger margins.</p>
<p>Unlike some policymakers, attribution studies don’t just guess whether global warming has influenced an observed extreme. Instead, the scientific approach requires a rigorous investigation of the factors that contribute to each event. </p>
<p>Attribution studies of recent extreme Australian fire weather are being conducted right now. However, the number of climate model experiments required to produce robust, scientifically valid results are many, so this will take time.</p>
<p>A recent preliminary analysis of the extreme Spring 2013 temperatures in New South Wales suggests these temperatures were made <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-hottest-year-was-no-freak-event-humans-caused-it-21734">15 times more likely</a> because of the additional greenhouse gases we put into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Let’s be clear here. Climate scientists also understand that <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-the-nsw-bushfires-linked-to-climate-change-19480">high temperatures are only one factor that influences bushfires</a>. However, the increase in hot temperatures already occurring in Australia throughout the year suggests, at the very least, that we should prepare ourselves for longer and more intense fire seasons.</p>
<p>Science shows extreme heat events are changing. It also shows a clear link between these extremes and climate change. If policymakers continue to ignore the science and deny these changes, we will be vastly unprepared for our future. </p>
<p>The WMO understands and values the science of event attribution and the insights it provides about our future. It is time our policymakers did the same.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24628/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophie Lewis is a Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne node of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Perkins receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a research fellow at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales. </span></em></p>The new World Meteorological Organization statement on the status of the global climate of 2013 highlights a fact that some still wilfully prefer to ignore – climate change is already making many extreme…Sophie Lewis, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneSarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Research Fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.