Game of drones: how UAVs changed the terms of war in the Middle East

With boots on the ground being costly politically, economically and diplomatically, it seems that week after week, drones are the most important front line weapon against Washington’s opponents in the War on Terror. In my column recently I looked at the evolution of autonomous aircraft and their current…

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Al-Qaeda deputy Abu Yahya al-Libi was killed by a drone strike last week. EPA/IntelCentre

With boots on the ground being costly politically, economically and diplomatically, it seems that week after week, drones are the most important front line weapon against Washington’s opponents in the War on Terror.

In my column recently I looked at the evolution of autonomous aircraft and their current status as the long arm of American foreign policy.

The strike carried out this week by a US drone on Libyan-born al-Qaeda depyty Abu Yahya al-Libi in northern Pakistan is a case in point. The action was, according to America’s Defense Secretary Leon Panetta “about our sovereignty”.

By that, Panetta means that popping a Hellfire missile into the mouth of a cave in Waziristan is a means of safe-guarding American interests back in Cleveland. Well, assuming you get the right guy and the act doesn’t alienate so many more locals that you create a never-ending stream of new recruits.

But is it fair enough if one country is flying a robot plane through the airspace of another country and using it to deliberately kill a citizen of a third state? The morality and legality of targeted killings I will leave to those more experienced in the laws of sovereignty and ethics. I would, though, like to know two things:

1) Who decides who is guilty enough to make it on to a death warrant for Obama to sign?

2) How many “number twos” can one organisation have? It seems that we’re always nailing another “al-Qaeda number two” or “trusted lieutenant”. That’s one flat organisational chart.

Warfare on the cheap

Aside from those questions it is worth examining the phenomenon of drones (or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) in terms of why they are used, and what bonuses and costs they have politically. For using drones as a weapon of choice against terrorist cells is at the same time a precision tool and a blunt instrument.

A MQ-9 Reaper drone in Afghanistan in 2007. US Air Force

The big tactical attraction with the robot aircraft is, in football terms, their “hang time”. A Predator UAV can stay aloft for up to 24 hours. They don’t sleep, don’t eat, don’t get stressed out, can see in the dark and after that 24 hour stint they’ll be ready to do another shift straight as soon as the fuel tank is topped up. And if something goes wrong and they end up as a pile of debris scattered over an acre of Afghan hillside, nobody needs to send them home in a flag-draped coffin. At just $4 million a pop, Predators are huge value for money.

Given the nature of the terrain where America is hunting terrorists, drones are an easy solution compared to inserting troops and much more cost efficient than using conventional fighter-bomber aircraft. You can have a drone circling a patch of turf day and night, just waiting for a target of opportunity or a particular individual to pop their head up.

Then it’s up to the controllers back at base to give the nod and fire the missile and … BANG! Instant job opportunity for a new al-Qaeda number two.

Strategic killing

In strategic terms, drones are a good way of continuing a war while everybody can pretend it’s not happening. Having a few battalions of Marines sitting in Pakistan or Yemen would be politically difficult, both for America and the “host” country.

And it’s bad for the Marines too when they keep getting their legs blown off by IEDs whilst fruitlessly chasing shepherds around the mountainsides.

Drones mean that politicians can say, “We’ve brought the boys back home,” while still making sure there are some positive bad-guy killing stories in tomorrow’s Washington Post. President Obama has been a bigger user of drones than his predecessor for precisely this reason.

Collateral damage

But this robotic presence is still a presence. And it’s here we find the drawback of this arms-length warfare: drones kill people. Sometimes, not the right people either.

Pakistani protesters burn an American flag as they march against US drone strikes. EPA/MK Chaudhry

Naturally, figures vary, but drone strikes in Pakistan alone have been linked to up to 800 civilian deaths. Sadly that sort of figure is just a drop in the ocean considering the body counts that occur monthly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but one has the sense that using a drone to carry out these sort of killings makes it all the more remote from our minds.

However this sort of collateral damage is not remote from the considerations of Pakistanis. The apparent impunity with which America operates its unmanned aircraft over their skies has incensed the government in Islamabad. Especially when Leon Panetta tells them to shut the hell up because this is all about American sovereignty. The Pakistanis also see the drone attacks as counterproductive, creating opposition and resentment that plays into the hands of the terrorist groups.

Kill the bad guy, save his family

We know that these criticisms of the drone campaign must have some grounds because even the CIA is getting squeamish.

This has seen the development of a “Lite n'Easy” model Hellfire missile – one with a smaller warhead. The idea is that firing one into the Hilux the bad guy is riding in won’t wipe out the whole of the wedding convoy he’s travelling with. Going to the trouble of inventing this solution is an indication that targeted killing from unmanned aircraft is considered a long-term plan.

Whatever the outcome of the American elections this year it’s a fairly safe bet that drones won’t be voted out. And as long as al-Qaeda keeps that sprawling hierarchy there will be plenty more targets for these graphically-named birds of prey to pursue.

Join the conversation

105 Comments sorted by

  1. John Phillip

    John Phillip is a Friend of The Conversation.

    Grumpy Old Man

    Mat, in war, strategy and tactics have to change to suit circumstances. Since the onset of the global terror campaigns by radical Islamists (I guess, beginning with the airliner hijackings and Munich Olympics slaughter in the '70s.) the west has struggled to adapt. The more recent IED tactics have cost many lives and any military force must attempt to minimize the harm to its own troops at stages of the conflict. The drones provide that opportunity. To argue against them on the basis that they are…

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    1. Wei Ling Chua

      Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales

      In reply to John Phillip

      Andy, Your tone is scary. IED tactic like the Bamboo trap in the Vietnam war is the only way these weaker people are able to use against the invading forces. There is totally no reason to invade those countries in the first place. If there is no invasion, there will be no IED. Drones are notorious in killing innocent people. By doing that, the US has proven itself to be no different from the terrorists they persuade. These are the images of 168 children deaths by Drones not reported by the mainstream media: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=30603

      In fact, the number of civilian deaths should be a lot higher. The American has this tactic to reduce the number reported: http://www.propublica.org/article/dissecting-obamas-standard-on-drone-strike-deaths

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    2. Mike Swinbourne

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to John Phillip

      Andy, I don't think that anyone is arguing against UAVs because they are 'unfair'. People are arguing against UAVs because they are being operated illegally (by civilians and overflying sovereign states without authority), and they may actually be counter-productive to our 'war' aims.
      I, like Mat, laughed out loud when I heard that yet another Al Quaeda "#2" had been killed. How many #2s does that organisation have?
      But more seriously, if we are to prosecute this conflict successfully it does not…

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    3. Mat Hardy

      Lecturer in Middle East Studies at Deakin University

      In reply to John Phillip

      Andy, thanks for the lesson in basic military philosophy.

      Where did I "argue against" drones for being "unfair"?

      I pointed out, as have others in this thread, that they raise questions of sovereign law. But I also questioned the legal process of how the kill orders are arrived at, which has implications for international and even domestic law. Even in the states of the USA where the death penalty is in force, there is significant legal process involved in trying, sentencing and appealing. I would be interested to know what processes are being gone through in the White House, especially given the amount of 'collateral damage' that occurs with these orders.

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    4. John Phillip

      John Phillip is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Grumpy Old Man

      In reply to Mat Hardy

      Mat I don't think drones per se raise the question of sovereign law. Surely those questions would arise with any weapons systems, be it mechanical or human that is capable of reaching across borders. My point is that the decision to deploy, fire or activate should be given to those 'on the ground' at the time. It's my view that once a government decides to engage in a war, it should (largely) step away from the actual combat decision making process. Western governments have had to adapt to fighting an enemy that follows no formalized rules of engagement. To do so effectively has meant that they have to step away from traditional doctrine and this has meant that, at times, it may be necessary to breach sovereign law.
      My comment about the 'unfairness' of the use of technology was simply a bit of a shot at what I perceived was your PC version of warfare. W Chua also, clearly thinks drones are 'unfair' on the poor , set upon,IED wielding extremists. :)

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    5. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to John Phillip

      Andy, your assertion that war is brutal doesn't add anything to what we already know about war. Arguing that because war is brutal there is no reason to attempt to bring the rule of law, international law in this case, opens the door to the sort of indiscriminate wide scope killings that produce the social conditions for the production of terrorists in the first instance.

      BTW: the 1972 Munich massacre was undertaken by the PLO which was, at the time, not an Islamist organisation. Conflating terrorist with Islamist indicates that you've swallowed propaganda and need to bone up on your history.

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    6. Mike Swinbourne

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to John Phillip

      No Andy - while the west may have to adapt its warfighting doctrine to cope with fighting a different enemy and different form of warfare, to suggest that it may be necessary to breach sovereign law in doing so is wrong, and is extremely dangerous.
      Our whole society and culture are based on the rule of law - and the concept that no-one, not even the government,our leaders our military or our police, are immune from the requirement to obey the law.
      The minute we violate this concept, we have lost. If we throw out the very principle that underpins our society in order to save it - then we save nothing.

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    7. Mike Swinbourne

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to John Phillip

      No Andy - while the west may have to adapt its warfighting doctrine to cope with fighting a different enemy and different form of warfare, to suggest that it may be necessary to breach sovereign law in doing so is wrong, and is extremely dangerous.
      Our whole society and culture are based on the rule of law - and the concept that no-one, not even the government,our leaders our military or our police, are immune from the requirement to obey the law.
      The minute we violate this concept, we have lost. If we throw out the very principle that underpins our society in order to save it - then we save nothing.

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  2. Gavin Moodie

    Principal Policy Adviser

    Interesting piece.

    The US is not at war with Pakistan and so has no justification for invading its territory and air space, with drones or any anything else, let alone killing people.

    Even in war killing civilians is a crime. This crime is a relatively recent 20th century phenomenon.

    Drones are not unmanned aerial vehicles: they are unpiloted aerial vehicles.

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    1. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Gavin Moodie

      Gavin Moodie: "Even in war killing civilians is a crime. This crime is a relatively recent 20th century phenomenon."
      I think you'll find that civilians have always been casualties of war. In fact, most of the casualties of war have been civilians.
      What's changed is that we now have laws which the killing of civilians in war violate.

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    2. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to David Boxall

      Well, no. Unless non-combat civilians are deliberately targeted, no it's not a crime. Unfortunate, shocking, disastrous yes, but not a war crime.

      Of course, enemy like al Qaeda know this very well and hide, cowardly, among civilians -- as did the Viet Cong, and many other modern terrorists.

      Fewer civilians have been killed in recent conflicts than in comparable historical wars, and just as well because it is becoming less acceptable, which I agree is a good thing. But lets not suggest civilian deaths are totally avoidable in war.

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    3. Horst Kayak

      Pacifist

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      It is time to ask for civilian fatality score cards to be handed to UN at the end of each "hunting season" by the more enlightened nations

      .

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    4. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Horst Kayak

      You think al Qaeda et al would comply with that? Or do you just mean the bad guys from the imperial West?

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    5. Mike Swinbourne

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Well Yuri, I hate to butt in on you and Peter trading personal insults, but I thought it might be appropriate to add a bit of sense to the discussion.
      Firstly, you are incorrect that the killing of civilians is not a war crime unless they are deliberately targetted. There is the issue of proportionality collateral damage, and if the collateral damage can be reasonably have been known to exceed the military advantage (eg in the number of civilians killed vs the number of combatants), then it would…

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    6. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Mike Swinbourne

      Mike, yes, I accept your fine point. If a building of 200 civilians with Bin Laden in the basement is targeted, then the issue of proportionality would be important. It would be interesting to see it tested in international law, though. Example: the Bin Laden take down in Pakistan. Drone or other aerial strike may have been sufficient, but the troops were sent in.

      By and large, careless and irresponsible use of air power does not happen now as a matter of policy by the US or NATO. It would be…

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    7. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Mike Swinbourne

      Couldn't agree more Mike ... sorry I lose my temper with opinionated windbags.

      There is an issue however regarding the US and the capacity to take action against them for war crimes in international jurisdictions.

      There is some history to this:

      Under Clinton the US signed on to the ICC which is a treaty-based organisation that investigates and prosecutes actions for war crimes. However in 2002 G W Bush voided the treaty, removing US particapation or co-operation with the ICC.

      In 2002…

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    8. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Mike, you will have to forgive Peter's intemperate and insulting language. For the most part he argues well, but when under pressure he resorts to personal insult to distract attention from poor logic and irrational analysis.

      It's widespread on discussion forums of course. We get used to it.

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    9. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      I'm sure you do get used to it "Yuri"... I reckon quite a few people would get angry when you accuse them of supporting a dictator like Saddam, who makes appallingly ignorant statements about an issue on which he is most adamant and hawkish (about other peoples' lives) and who pretends to have a military experience to justify his bellicose dismissal of alternative opinions.

      But like all armchair generals and other bullies you don't like it when you cop a serve back. Next time try and have an argument on an issue you actually know something about. Or read up before hitting your keyboard.

      Silly old duffer.

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    10. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Seconded, Peter Ormonde. People who claim service history but don't have any or refuse to substantiate their claims are parasitic on the real valour of people who made real sacrifice; they puff themselves up then run a hundred miles when called on it. All piss and wind. When the same people also claim to be members of the peace movement but make statements that no peace movement member ever would make they gimme the tom-tits big time.

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    11. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Anthony Nolan

      Dear me,

      More bluster and no substance. I have issued a challenge that both of you have declined.

      But . . . I am beginning to doubt that either of you have any substance at all. Just cozy Monday Morning Quarterbacks and useful idiots determined to support the fascism-of-the-day as long as it decries US and Australian foreign policy.

      Now, back to substance. Peter, I've asked you four times: Do you or do you not wish Saddam and his mad sons were still in power?

      And Anthony, you have not answered my question about your policy of "defence only". So, would you stand by and watch the deaths of a million people in Rwanda, Iraq, and Srebrenica, and offer no help?

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    12. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter, it's okay for you to feel angry. You must be confused at this time, having your cherished beliefs challenged, and I understand you have much thinking to do.

      Until next time, Kind Regards, Yuri

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    13. Mike Swinbourne

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Sorry Yuri, but I would like to suggest you do not understand either the doctrine of air power, its history, or its operational application and how it is used in conflict.
      Air Power has never been used carelessly or irresponsibly. In the past the major limitation with air power has been its inability to deliver ordinance accurately. And it has always had a strategic application - and its use to deliberately target civilians and civilian infrastructure continues to this day.It was used that way in…

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    14. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Mike Swinbourne

      Mike, the cheap shots do not become you, and your implications are unfounded of course. But, okay . . . your answer would suggest you failed Air War College because semantic technicalities must necessarily be sublimated by proportionality. You need to consider the continuum of harm.

      You wrote: "Air Power has never been used carelessly or irresponsibly. In the past the major limitation with air power has been its inability to deliver ordinance accurately. " (Ordnance not ordinance.)

      Are you…

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    15. Mike Swinbourne

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Well Yuri, I find it fascinating that you would criticise me for supposedly making 'cheap shots', then in the very next sentence suggest I failed war college (I'm a graduate by the way). You may have made an attempt to correct my spelling, but I wonder if you can spell 'hypocrite'?
      But I will at least give you credit for checking out my facebook page and verifying both my identity and my qualifications. I wonder if you are up to the same challenge yourself, and are prepared to verify your military…

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    16. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Mike Swinbourne

      Mike wrote: "We have largely given up trying to terrorise the civilian population because the lessons of WWII showed it didn't really work. "

      Thanks, you agree with me then, that the air war has changed since WW2. And nice try to suggest that Dresden did not involve indiscriminate bombing -- unless you consider the complete city a target, which proves my point anyway.

      Now, to get down to details. Please provide instances in Iraq, Afghanistan or the Balkans where civilians were targeted 'deliberately' as a strategic instrument, by NATO et al, as I requested in response to your allegations.

      In your answer, please distinguish between 'infrastructure' and civilians. (Sounds like an exam question doesn't it?)

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    17. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      I watched the deaths of tens if not hundreds of thousands of people in Rwanda, Iraq and the Balkans both before and after "help" arrived. The "help" at times looked about as bad as the problem it was meant to address.

      The use of the Australian armed services for non-defensive purposes ought to be very judicious in my view. There are occasions when military assistance is of great benefit - the Interfet intervention, for example. I baulk at what appears to me to be the political use of Australian…

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    18. Mike Swinbourne

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      No Yuri - I am not here to answer all your questions, and I don't agree with you.
      But I will answer yours after you answer mine (and Peter's), since we asked first.
      Tell us about your military background and qualifications.

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    19. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Mike Swinbourne

      Well naturally, I make the same defence. I'm not here to answer personal demands that are only meant to divert attention from hard questions that relate to the subject of Mat's article. Remember?

      I must admit my surprise that you both use such infantile tactics to avoid answering pertinent points of debate.

      So, let's summarise. You now agree with me that, contrary to your claim, you cannot point to any instances of NATO troops directly targetting civilians in recent conflicts (see above).

      Thank you, Mike.

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  3. Chris Harries

    logged in via Facebook

    We need to have this debate before Australia starts to deploy drones of its own. The use of drones is changing the very nature of warfare.

    A few years ago I was rather shocked that a US drone had been used to kill an enemy figure in Sudan, presumably an Al Queda operative... but who knows. The US was not at war with Sudan.

    One major problem with the use of drone is that if it can be justified to kill off an enemy figure in a sovereign nation, without declaring war, then surely others have an…

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    1. Robert Miech

      Retired

      In reply to Chris Harries

      Chris,

      We have just bought two. Plus we own 1/3 of a spy satellite positioned over Afganistan. Check the ALP website.

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  4. Robert Miech

    Retired

    Thanks Mat. Nice to see this serious subject aired. The mainstream media seems to be occupied with other things.

    I like the distinction Gavin has made in how we refer to these delivery systems.

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  5. Russell Walton

    Russell Walton is a Friend of The Conversation.

    Retired

    Interesting article. The Americans seem rather like the Bourbons, during the last 70 years the US has developed considerable expertise in killing indiscriminately from the air. So, naturally, those are the tactics they still employ, whether or not there's any strategic or tactical advantage is more or less irrelevant. There's no ethical difference between attacks by helicopters and the carpet bombing of Vietnam 45 years ago and drone attacks in Asia in 2012.

    Those people are our allies.

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  6. Mike Swinbourne

    logged in via Facebook

    There are a few interesting legal points with regard to this issue.
    The first is - who is flying the UAVs? If it is uniformed personnel involved in the conduct of a war, then that is one thing - but if it CIA or other civilian personnel, then it is an entirely a different matter and one which is a serious concern. To permit extra-judicial killing of anyone - no matter what the supposed justification - is something the international community should be up in arms about.
    Secondly, overflight of a sovereign state without permission is a violation of the law - pure and simple. Pakistan would be within their rights to destroy the UAVs, and would also be in their rights to complain to the United Nations.
    If the west is to retain legitimacy in the so called (but misnamed) 'war on terror', then it must ensure it operates in accordance with the rules of law. In this case, they are not doing so.

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  7. Peter Ormonde

    Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

    Farmer

    The really strange thing about putting drones into Pakistan's air space and "taking out" even the most strategic of targets in the surgical of operations, is that the RPGs, missiles and bullets being lobbed at the thing will have "made in the USA" all over them.

    Without US military aid, the real government of Pakistan - the military ruling elite - would be flat on its back. It only survives on the river of US military aid.

    Pakistan's military grew rich and powerful during the Cold War where…

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    1. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter, perhaps the ISI should read Kilcullen's counter-insurgency manual, then they could transform the country in a few years, eh? BTW, who is going to protect the medical equipment and resources in Waziristan when the local warlords steal everything and kill the local teachers?

      You seem to assume that aid is a magic bullet, and that centuries of religious dogma in the hands of fanatics can be overturned with a few good deeds. In the early years, the Taliban were notorious for snaffling UN Food…

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    2. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Yuri, it is actually a bit silly continuing this discussion - you obviously just "know" these things and will not actually engage in any serious discussion of the issues.

      I should however point out that Kilcullen and modern strategies of counter insurgency have a very clear role for the military - and a large part of the role is in protecting and defending the assistance and facilities provided to the local people such as schools and hospitals.

      This puts the insurgents outside the community of interest of those they seek to control.

      But of course you would "know" these things already. Armchair generals.

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    3. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      I've never said Kilcullen's work does not have value. I am saying that it is not a panacea for complex conflicts such as those in Afghanistan.

      I'm well aware of his basic premise. I even watched his National Press Club Address on the ABC a year or so ago. I must admit, I did not like his delivery. I'm not surprised you think he's god, because HE thinks he's god!

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  8. Ken Swanson

    Geologist

    Drone attacks on the soil of a third party nation, Pakistan with whom the USA is not at war.
    The killing of civilians in both Pakistan and Afghanistan as a result of drone weapons/ airborne missile systems.
    The admitted existence of a Barak Obama assassination list.
    How is Obama's behaviour any different to that of G W Bush?
    We may well ask where is the criticism and scrutiny from the MSM in the USA and here.
    Where is the outrage from the Human Rights groups in the USA and here?
    Where is the call for Obama to be declared a war criminal and tried before the UN Courts like they were doing for Bush?
    The left is full of unprincipled hypocrites. It is sickening!

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    1. Horst Kayak

      Pacifist

      In reply to Ken Swanson

      The drone is an assassination delivery weapon. Why so much sensitivity? Why not just say it is used to assassinate opponents of the USA? Albeit on occasion with the loss of life of civilians outside the jurisdiction of the USA.
      There was once an expression about bullets having the target’s name on it. Abu Yahya al-Libi is the most recent USA assassination. Some day in the future this form of execution will be termed a war crime.

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    2. Martin Hirst

      Associate Professor Journalism & Media at Deakin University

      In reply to Ken Swanson

      I agreed until your last point: 'the left' bogeyperson does not exist.
      there's plenty of left currents that oppose what Obama is doing and do see drone attacks as war crimes.
      Stop dribblejawing over stuff you don't understand.

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    3. Ken Swanson

      Geologist

      In reply to Martin Hirst

      If the MSM was serious about balance here and in the USA this would be on the front page of the NYT and Fairfax press. After all these are the outlets who see themselves as defenders of human rights and progressive policy in general. It is also widely acknowledged that they have a "left" editorial policy, just as Murdoch is on the "right". Obama is on the "left" and so gets an easy ride all the time!
      It is not the left bogeyperson (sickeningly PC) it is actually another example of progressive group think.
      So in future do not patronise me with your arrogant ivory tower academic smugness. Get in the real world and deal with the facts. I fear for your students if this is the manner in which you deal with a dissenting view to your own.

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  9. Yuri Pannikin

    Director

    Mat, fair enough to raise the legality of cross-border drone strikes. However, that stuff about al Qaeda number 2s would have been better omitted. Number 2, number 10, who cares . . . if they are leadership material they are fair targets for strikes and publicity - al-Awlaki, al-Libi et al.

    My other criticism relates to the proposition that "if we kill them, they will only get angry and recruit more followers". I call this the "angry bee" proposition, and it is, as you know, a favourite premise of the left, pacifists, and various anti-war, anti-US protagonists.

    It makes no sense whatsoever, is not established in fact (and a case can be made for the opposite position), and looks like more of the same from the usual suspects.

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    1. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Yuri,

      I've never heard anyone arguing that killing al Qaeda or Taliban or Al Shobab leaders will "make them angry and they'll recruit more followers". If you have a link or a reference I'd greatly appreciate it.

      However, taking out wedding parties, innocent bystanders, kids, wrong targets and what is usually described as "collateral damage" will drive recruitment to oust "the invader". Or doesn't that matter?

      It is sad how little some of our more hawkish commentators learned from losing…

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    2. Mat Hardy

      Lecturer in Middle East Studies at Deakin University

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      I disagree that motivations of revenge and personal loss are not involved in providing recruits for terrorist organisations. You seem to have confused what I am on about. When innocent bystanders (or at least the currently uncommitted) have family members etc killed by a perceived invader, this can cement their intention to a join a cause. Certainly that was a huge push factor in the Iraq insurgency as people sought revenge against the Western forces, their own forces or various domestic sectarian…

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    3. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter, anyone who gives their life for a cause can hardly be called a coward -- more often than not a fanatic though. But this does not preclude "cowardly" actions. Hiding among, or merging with, civilians knowing that 'you' are a target, and that civilians are likely to be killed is . . . "cowardly".

      And you know I am familiar with Kilcullen's work. He's not god, mate. It's one opinion -- and one that has little majority support; because it has limited application and effectiveness in Afghanistan.

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    4. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Even better than giving one's life for a cause is winning, Yuri... doing what it takes to win. Lots of cowards die Yuri - it takes real courage to win.

      Kilcullen - one opinion? - the counter terrorism advisor to the US Secretary of State? The Duntroon graduate who was senior advisor to David Patreus in Iraq?

      Whose books and writings are used extensively by military institutions all over the world? The advisor to the Brits, NATO, ISAF and an adjunct professor at John Hopkins in Security Studies…

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    5. Martin Hirst

      Associate Professor Journalism & Media at Deakin University

      In reply to Mat Hardy

      stop the scatalogical references to 'number 2s' (no apostrophe in plurals BTW), it makes this thread sound so boy-fricken-scout.
      Maybe it is.

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    6. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Yep, just one opinion. If you think the US government and military does not have hundreds of advisors on terrorism and insurgencies, then you are misinformed ;-). They get a lot of opinion, even stuff they don't like, and pick what they think will achieve goals. To suggest that one man has the answer to complex wars like Afghanistan and Iraq is nonsense. Neither are similar to East Timor.

      And you can't have it both ways, because you now seem to be saying that Kilcullen is responsible for current US and NATO stratgegy in Afghanistan. He's not, and that's because he only has a certain amount to offer.

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    7. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Mat Hardy

      Look, the bottom line is that when combatants deliberately merge with civilians, civilians will be killed. That's the nature of this type of modern conflict. I've already agreed that it's reprehensible and to be prevented at all costs, which,as you agree, the US military is attempting to do, and always has in recent decades.

      If that upsets insurgents and combatants and they recruit followers, then so be it. It's a continuum,a risk-benefit scale of net effect. Are you suggesting that a passive policy after 9/11, with more terrorist attacks executed, would not have enticed more followers to al Qaeda and other salafists? They already had a good head of steam, from the African embassy bombings to Somalia, 9/11 and various other failed attacks.

      It's a pathetic mantra.

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    8. Graham Mantle

      Would be (retired)

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      To live among civilians is not cowardly, even for a terrorist. As for IEDs, are they any different in effect from anti personel mines that the USA, among others, continues to make available to this day. And who is more cowardly, the misguided suicide bomber or the agent who flies his drone from his position of safety, presumably in the midst of a civilian population?

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    9. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Graham Mantle

      Sure, IEDs targeting troops have become a part of basic warfare in these conflicts, as devastating as they are. I've no problem with that.

      However, if they 'deliberately' target civilians, as they do in some instances, then that is an important distinction. For suicide bombing, the same applies, and we know that vastly more suicide bombings and missions target civilians than enemy troops. That is not an accident, it is standard operating procedure for the salafists.

      You need to do some critical thinking, Graham. Drone strikes NEVER target civilians exclusively and significant time and resources are spent attempting to establish whether non-combatant civilians are in the vicinity. It's never going to work 100%. Obama knows that; he has to live with it. That's war, get over it.

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    10. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Yuri

      You are confusing terrorism - the deliberate use of wholesale civilian murder as a tool - and insurgency - civilian combatants targeting an enemy or invader and then going back to their day jobs are farnmers or lawyers. This is what happened with the Viet Cong and is the hallmark of guerrilla war.

      It is a good thing to have strong opinions - but they should be informed by reading and understanding - or experience. Enthusiasm and fear are not enough.

      Read Kilcullen before you dismiss…

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    11. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter, now you're getting insulting, which suggests you have no better response. And I suggest you're guessing at what I do and do not know, and my background. (No, I did not make it to 'General', armchair or other.)

      Okay, I'll quote from the US Counterinsurgency Manual -- you have a copy of course? -- no, not the KIlcullen one, that's the US Government Counterinsurgency Guide:

      "Even when destroying an obvious insurgent headquarters or command center, counterinsurgents must take care to minimize…

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    12. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Yep that is one of their manuals - and most likely the one that is in common use - and why they keep losing these counter insurgency conflicts.

      Now Yuri you are implying that you have a military background - let's hear it... spell it out for me so I know who I'm talking to ... where did you see combat?

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    13. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      I'm not sure this is relevant, Peter, you're trying to squirm out of a difficult position, but you go first . . .

      Do you want name, rank and number as well?

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    14. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Exactly Yuri ... just the unit number/designation will be adequate I'll track it down.

      You stated above that "No, I did not make it to 'General', armchair or other." This is suggesting that you have seen military service and have some expertise in the area. Let's hear it. Or is it just from your extensive reading on the subject?

      Incidentally that's a rather selective quote you've lifted from that US Defence Dept Counterinsurgency guide isn't it? I'm assuming it's the 2009 edition.

      The…

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    15. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter, I asked you to go first. However, like my request to you to attest that you would prefer Saddam and his psycho sons to be still in power, you continue to ignore me.

      I think you're bluffing and you have nothing.

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    16. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      "That's war. Get over it"

      A great leap forward in moral philosophy there Yuri. Presumably made from the comfort of your home. If you're so keen to prosecute war against Muslim "fanatics" at any expense then I reckon that there probably aren't any obstacles to you doing so. Enlist, either here or somewhere where you can claim nationality. Then, and only then, once you've smelled the real deal, advise us to "get over war".

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    17. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Yuri,

      Above you insinuated that you had served in the military - but had not risen to the rank of General. When I asked you for details you have ducked and run for cover.

      Now I don't care if you did or didn't - I'm absolutely certain you have never fired a shot or been shot at - makes no difference to me. But people who have served in the military take it rather unkindly when armchair warriors claim to have "done their bit".

      So again I ask you to clarify your insinuated expertise as a serving soldier. Or you can have the courage to admit you just made that up and in fact know nothing whatsoever about military strategies - even as a humble foot soldier - but just want (someone) to kill the bad guys.... and it's just all part of the show if a few kiddies and mums and dads get caught up in the cross fire.

      How to lose a war part 2.

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    18. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Anthony Nolan

      Anthony, at the risk of being labelled a troll, I can say that I deliberately used that phrase because we all need to deal with the shocking truth, which is that people get killed in war, including many innocent civilians.

      If you cannot deal with this, then you need to advocate we disband the military completely. Perhaps you do. This does not mean we should not do everything possible to avoid conflicts. However, part of that assessment is how and when we need to intervene to protect innocents in other countries being slaughtered by their own governments.

      I can understand that you might not want to do this, being safe and sound in a comfortable and prosperous country. Are you all right, Jack?

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    19. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter, we are getting nowhere. If you want my military background it's only fair that you provide yours first. I could make the same claims about you, but seeing as I did not start this, please provide yours first.

      And as I said, you have deliberately started a distraction that has no relevance to the subject being discussed. I can see why, because you are all at sea . . . or is that just a snafu with you?

      I regard this thread as terminated.

      Kind regards, Yuri

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    20. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      And there we have it folks ... another armchair general ... all too keen to send off younger folks to fight the good fight for them ... and well if we kill a few innocent bystanders that's just par for the course isn't it?

      With a bit of luck we'll soon be able to give old warriors like Yuri their very own drones which they can unleash from their loungerooms - he'd really show them foreign devils what's what I'd reckon.

      Wonder when they'll start turning up on Ebay?

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    21. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      "I regard this thread as terminated". Good heavens, I hope he hasn't he's gone off like a suicide bomber pulling the pin. Terminating a discussion rather than just ending it hints at a rather extreme state of mind, don't you think? Terminate? With prejudice? Maybe he's got one of those little house helicopters for the neighbours? Boom.

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    22. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Anthony, glad you like it. 'Terminate' has a clear and present meaning ;-). But I must admit that I do feel somewhat ashamed of the lively discussion Peter and I have been having in the context of such a serious matter, which for the most part has been informative for Peter and your dear self, I'm certain.

      In fact, re drones, I believe the Yanks have about 30,000 with double that on the way. You'll only have to go to Darwin to see them soon.

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    23. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Yeah, I think the term is "concern troll". But we'll let that go. It isn't necessary at all for the sake of philosophical coherence that I advocate disbanding the military. Why would you think so? I'm not a pacifist, just anti-war. Defensive war is acceptable. The issue on this thread is what counts as defensive or not.

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    24. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Anthony Nolan

      Okay, you answered my question: you are not prepared to help others at risk of genocide. Defence only, eh?

      Right, good, got it, know all about you now.

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    25. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Who exactly is "at risk of genocide" that we are currently defending? According to what definition of genocide?

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    26. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Anthony Nolan

      You said you would only support military action for defence purposes as a general principle. You can't now pick and choose. You haven't thought this through, have you?

      Let's take several examples from recent decades. You would be happy to see 800,000 Rwandans murdered and not lift a finger to help? 400,000 or more Iraqi Shia and Kurds under Saddam? No help? 8000 Bosnian muslims at Srebrenica? Not a finger, eh?

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  10. Martin Hirst

    Associate Professor Journalism & Media at Deakin University

    The idea that 'sovereignty' can be defended by a remote attack on a third party nation when the whole 'war' is against an immaterial enemy 'terrorism' is totally 'whack'.
    Does this mean I can bust a cap in your ass if I think you might jump the fence and steal my chicken.
    This goes to show that the whole US approach has not moved beyond 'Gitmo'

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  11. Chris Harries

    logged in via Facebook

    Look, these sorts of conversations are invariably imbued with our personal prejudices that go along left-versus-right thinking and our perceptions about the role of the US in world affairs. That's fine. But I reject any puerile notion that if a person presses for a public debate about the nature and conduct of warfare then that person must be a left wing loony or conspirator. The public has a huge stake in the after effects of war and deserves a greater role than just an annual honouring of those…

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    1. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Chris Harries

      Absolutely agree; but to do this, we need to get rid of the hard-wired left-right alignment, which inhibits critical thinking and encourages intellectual sloth. And such alignments are obvious from various cliches and assumptions based on that political divide.

      When I see either, I will call it so.

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    2. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Again, you underestimate me, Peter. I was a member of the Greens for 5 years. Pacifists were, and still are good aquaintainces. I marched and protested with them, discussed and debated with them.

      Nuh. You can't paint me into that redneck corner, mate, and they can' help it if they're naively wrong :-)

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    3. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      In all my years in the peace movement going back to the Vietnam War I never, ever, heard a peacenik say about civilian deaths '"that's war...get over it". Did you learn that line at Greenham Common? No? Maybe out at the Pine Gap protests then? Or during the 1980's Palm Sunday gatherings on the Sydney Domain? Please Yuri, cite a source for this attitude. Did ya read that in an article by Gene Sharp, maybe? Martin Luther King? Ghandi? Maybe it was in a song by Dylan?

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    4. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Anthony Nolan

      I don' tthink Ghandi is a good choice . . . sorry. I'm thinking more along the lines of Anwar Sadat - a hero by any standard.

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    5. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Mat Hardy

      Mat wrote: "...except by the standards of Egyptian Islamic Jihad, of course."

      Of course . . .

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  12. Horst Kayak

    Pacifist

    With 53 comments so far, albeit between a few people, the topic is HOT.
    My comment asked about USA policy on assassinations of leaders in other sovereign nations. My comment was not about war per se.
    Maybe the conversation could benefit by focusing on policing rather than taking sides in a civil war.

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  13. Mat Hardy

    Lecturer in Middle East Studies at Deakin University

    There has also been some discussion this week in the USA about the re-assignment of drones from the Middle East back home for use in surveillance / criminal investigation. Let's hope they're not equipped with Hellfires for traffic infringements.

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    1. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Mat Hardy

      Uh-oh. Drones shouting "tazer-tazer-tazer". I don't think I'm ready for this.

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    2. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Mat Hardy

      Let's hope so Mat.

      For 9 months of the year around here all the real blokes haul their immense carcasses onto teensy little ride on lawnmowers and spend Sunday mornings desecrating my solitude. The exhaust plume can be seen on google.

      I've been toying with the idea of getting one of those little remote control helicopters to strafe them into silence but I'd reckon a few surgical strikes with my very own drone would see the sanctity of my Sundays restored quite promptly.

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  14. Jack Arnold

    Director

    To think that in the late 60s, the Waite Institute led the world in this sort of aerial technology by using a 2m wingspan radio controlled model aircraft 500m above field trails of diseased crops boggles the mind. Add to that the 80km signal reception achieved by CSIRO Armidale from a 'home made' black box strapped on the back of a sheep measuring body physiology ... what opportunities did Australia miss???

    The USA apparently believes that it has a God given right to create havoc in foreign countries regardless of the sovereign rights of that target country.

    But what is different from the this strategy that failed in Vietnam??

    The US has lost two major wars, Vietnam & Iraq/Afghanistan, that were seemingly started for the benefit of shareholders in the NE military industrial complex & the US multinational oil industry.

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    1. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Jack Arnold

      Oh no, not the "military industrial complex & the US multinational oil industry."

      Is that like Country AND Western?

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    2. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Yuri, you alluded upthread to your own history of military service. Fair enough. I have no such history but my family does going back four generations. So we're always keen to establish the truth of any such claims. You'll be aware that in Australia it is an offence to claim military service and not have done it (http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/alleged-military-fraud-reappears-in-nsw-20100429-twdx.html). You'll probably also be aware that there is an organisation that vigorously pursues such imposters (http://www.anzmi.net/). That site is worth a read for you I reckon.

      So, what about it? You served with whom? Give us your unit number and we'll check on that. In the interests of respecting those who did actually serve.

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    3. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Anthony Nolan

      Anthony, I can assure you there is no case to answer in that regard, and it would be a waste of everyone's time and serve no purpose whatsoever -- and it is irrelevant.

      You need to stick to the discussion, but I can see you have no intelligent response.

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    4. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      No mate. You're laying claim to expertise based on military service. I'm asking: what service? If you aren't prepared to back it up maybe it is a good idea to not say. Just for the record under the Defence Act, 1903 as amended, it is a federal offence to claim to be a returned soldier, sailor or airman, subject to six months' imprisonment and a fine of up to $3300.

      So now you know where you stand.

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    5. Yuri Pannikin

      Director

      In reply to Anthony Nolan

      Nice try Anthony. It's irrelevant -- for me, or the discussion thread.

      Tell you what. If you can get the Conversation to ask the Feds to talk to me, I'll reveal my military service to them. How about that?

      Now put up or shut up.

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    6. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Yuri Pannikin

      Yuri,

      Upthread Peter Ormonde wrote to you:

      "You stated above that "No, I did not make it to 'General', armchair or other." This is suggesting that you have seen military service and have some expertise in the area."

      I think that is fair comment. He wanted to know what that experience was. Fair enough too because you're the person who alluded to it. Your military service is a private matter but only up until the moment that you lay claim to it in a public discussion such as here in which case people are entitled to ask you for the details. We do this to weed out military imposters and frauds.

      So I think that you are the person required to put up or shut up.

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  15. Anthony Nolan

    Ruminant

    The key issue is that drones allow for deep psychological distancing between the operative and the victim (target?). This is a truly chilling development because the end of the bayonet reality of killing is finally, totally removed. This is not a technology likely to produce a man of Siegfried Sassoon's stature. In fact it appears to be a technology deliberately designed to make impossible Sassoon's profoundly humanist response to war.

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  16. Graham Mantle

    Would be (retired)

    You guys must have gone to the same school as the federal pollies on trading insults and irrelevancies.

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    1. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Wei Ling Chua

      Sorry folks if my expression gets a bit touchy and offends the sensibilities of innocent bystanders.

      But in mitigation I find that folks who know nothing about a subject, who adopt belligerent machismo and rattle off slogans like "it's war - get over it", politely call others cowards, civilly dismiss civilian deaths as necessary and start sending out the interweb equivalent of white feathers to pacifists or those with a humanist position, deeply infuriating. A velvet sock on an iron bar.

      These are the sorts of arrogant and ignorant notions that get young soldiers killed and excuse the excesses and abuse of military power. All sides have them. A cheer squad for killing the baddies - no matter what the consequences.

      And you can absolutely guarantee that they have never shot at anything or anyone, or been shot at. Absolutely.

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    2. Wei Ling Chua

      Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter, it is not you that concerned me. You appear to know your subject matter well. It is Yuri argument that I find "irrelevancies". Yuri never able to support any argument with a web link and simply insist on justifying invasion and killing of innocent civilians as collateral damage. I can understand your frustration. I have given up in my previous experience on the CONVERSATION trying to convince people who are unable to support their view with rationale argument and reasoning and simply resorted to their right wing bias and sentiment.

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  17. Bruce Tabor

    Research Scientist at CSIRO

    In fairness to Pakistan, the Bureau of Investigative Journalism (linked in the article) is not the only organisation attempting to estimate civilian casualties of drone strikes.

    Pakistan Body Count is run by Dr. Zeeshan-ul-hassan a Fulbright scholar.
    http://pakistanbodycount.org/home
    Zeeshan-ul-hassan has constructed an extremely detailed account of deaths and inuuries from both suicide bombings and drone attacks in Pakistan and provides references. For drone strikes he has attempeted to partition…

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  18. NAJ Taylor

    Research Associate, Centre for Dialogue at La Trobe University

    I'm not familiar with Afghanistan and Pakistan being classified as "the Middle East". Where is this characterisation of the region from?

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