Gaza ceasefire leaves unclear picture of the prospect for peace

Israeli air-raids on Gaza have stopped. Palestinian rockets are not being fired at Israel. The cease-fire seems to be holding. After seven days of war, and 157 Palestinian deaths (the great majority of whom were hapless civilians), international leaders are congratulating each other of achieving and…

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The conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is far from over. EPA/Ali Ali

Israeli air-raids on Gaza have stopped. Palestinian rockets are not being fired at Israel. The cease-fire seems to be holding. After seven days of war, and 157 Palestinian deaths (the great majority of whom were hapless civilians), international leaders are congratulating each other of achieving and end to hostilities. But the obvious question is, how long will it last?

The war and the ceasefire negotiations highlighted a number of factors that are less than reassuring for the prospects of peace.

The United States and Australia made it clear during the war that they stood firmly with Israel. No objections to Israel’s disproportionate use of force. No condemnation of civilian death during Israel’s air raids. No questioning of the Israeli interpretation of self-defence. The Obama administration found the perfect opportunity to reaffirm its commitment to the special bi-lateral relationship which had become somewhat of a hot topic during the electoral campaign. But this was not a campaign trick. This reaffirmation came after Obama’s electoral victory and pointed to an established pattern of pro-Israeli policies which has been the subject of heated debate in the United States.

For its part, Israel demonstrated once again that it has no regard for international law. The Israeli leadership and the great majority of the Israeli public work on the assumption that the world is ready to sacrifice Israel. This is the dominant political point of view, with obvious reference to the WWII experience and regenerated through institutionalised reminders of the Holocaust. Consequently, Israel has simply ignored UN rejection of its occupation of Palestinian lands.

It has rejected past rulings by the International Criminal Court on the illegality of the separation wall and checkpoints that deprives the Palestinians of their livelihood. And it has mitigated international media reports of high civilian casualty rates during its recent aerial bombardment of Gaza as collateral damage – a small price to pay for Israel’s right of self-defence. In short, Israel acts with impunity.

Egypt has managed to get a few brownie points for leading the negotiations and securing a deal. Egypt under the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood is proving itself to be a reliable partner for the United States and, by extension, Israel. This is of course the very image that the Brotherhood President Mohammed Morsi has been hoping to project. The Brotherhood has been sensitive to suggestions by some right-wing analysts that it will jeopardise relations with the United States and cannot be expected to honour bilateral agreements with Israel, reached under the now-deposed Hosni Mubarak regime. From day one, the Muslim Brotherhood had set the task of proving such suspicions wrong.

President Morsi re-confirmed Egypt’s agreements with Israel and continued to maintain the security fence that separates Egypt from Gaza. Egypt under the Brotherhood has also made it clear that it has no desire to form an alliance with Iran.

The Muslim Brotherhood has achieved a major diplomatic feat. It has gained recognition in Washington as a predictable partner. But this achievement has its limits. The only reason Israel agreed to the ceasefire was that the aerial bombardment had reached its maximum effect.

On the eve the ceasefire, the Israeli leadership was debating whether to deploy ground troops into Gaza. This idea was rejected due to the high risk to Israeli troops. The Israeli public had welcomed air attacks, but was much less inclined to put soldiers’ lives at risk. After seven days of bombardment, the military operation had run its course. The ceasefire offer was a timely gift to help Israel save face and claim flexibility.

On this messy geo-political chess board, Iran has been sitting on the sidelines. Iran had nothing to offer. Iran could not prevent Hamas from agreeing to a ceasefire, demonstrating a major shift in alliances. While Iran had been courting Hamas after it took over Gaza in 2007 and has supplied its rocket stockpile, its political influence over Hamas has begun to wane following the ascendancy of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Iran’s blatant support for Bashar al-Assad has further alienated the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas who feel an affinity for the anti-Assad insurgency.

So we have a mixed picture for the prospects of peace. Iran’s declining regional influence and the Muslim Brotherhood’s eagerness to act responsibly are positive developments for peace, but they are not enough to tip the scale against overwhelming odds.

Israel’s continued occupation of Palestinian lands, and the Gaza blockade which is nothing short of collective punishment for the densely-populated inhabitants of the Gaza Strip continues. The Israeli leadership reserves the right to exact revenge with disproportionate force against missiles from Gaza (although their combat value has proven to be next to none). And the United States has made it abundantly clear that it will not step away from Israel, and will endorse Israel’s narrative of self-defence.

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  1. Jasmine-Kim Westendorf

    Researcher

    Great piece. Just one correction - it was the International Court of Justice that made the rulings on the separation wall and checkpoints, not the ICC. The ICC deals only with crimes committed by individuals.

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  2. Stiofán Mac Suibhne

    Contrarian / Epistemologist

    Israelis were also killed. Strangely omitted from the piece. I understand that a significant number of Palestinian deaths resulted from the Israeli targeting munition stores and secondary explosions. I agree, the ceasefire can't endure. Of course there is disproportionate use of force, that is the hallmark of traditional armed forces engaging with terrorist forces.

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    1. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Stiofán Mac Suibhne

      Stiofan. For a "contrarian", you seem to spend a lot of time echoing the view which can be found every day in Murdoch's The Australian.

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  3. Shelly Lachish

    Postdoctoral Research Assistant

    Firing rockets into a neighbouring country is also against international law. Since January 2012, over 2,256 rockets have been launched at Israel from Gaza (Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon's remarks to the Security Council, UN Secretary General on 21st Nov 2012: for a break down by month see wikipedia). Israelis have been killed by those rockets; and those killed were also hapless civilians.

    The Israeli government and its people do not base their actions on the assumption that the world is ready…

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    1. Stiofán Mac Suibhne

      Contrarian / Epistemologist

      In reply to Shelly Lachish

      Well said. It would be worth deconstructing the Hammas charter in a Conversation article. The author's odd turn of phrase about 'institutionalised reminders of the Holocaust' is somewhat jarring but such reminders / motifs are present in the Hammas charter.

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  4. Phil Dolan

    Viticulturist

    Shahram, you write, 'missiles from Gaza (although their combat value has proven to be next to none).

    For civilians to hear sirens going off all the time and knowing that a rocket could land on them is not to be dismissed. Sure, they will not destroy Israel, but it makes life intolerable. An average of three per day this year. And you say 'it's next to nothing'.

    It's not all Israel's fault. I agree the settler problem is a serious, I wish they would leave, but I think the statement that Israel has no right to exist gives the religious nutters all the excuse they need to act like they do.

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    1. Che Gorilla

      Human Rights Activist

      In reply to Phil Dolan

      The standard response in the arm chair West is deplorable.

      Look at this essay and some of the comments. It's as if Israelis have no human rights at all. It is as if they are not human.

      http://geofffff.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/a-letter-from-israel.html

      Look at this vile racist comment from a "journalist" that seeks to deploy "international law" to justify cold blooded murder

      http://geofffff.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/international-law-101-from-racist-left.html

      There is something sick in the West.

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  5. George Fink

    Professorial Research Fellow

    Israel does not occupy Gaza! Israel fully evacuated from Gaza in January 2006 in the hope that Palestinians living in Gaza would establish there a thriving and peaceful forerunner of a State of Palestine. Instead of doing this, Hamas turned Gaza into a missile and mortar launch pad from which it daily attacks civilian populations in Israel. Israel has the right to defend itself against these attacks.

    What is never mentioned in these standard one-sided attacks on Israel is that despite intensive…

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  6. Kim Bulwinkel

    Kim Bulwinkel is a Friend of The Conversation.

    Forcably retired!

    As a relatively ignorant observer of history & geography and hopefully as a relatively intelligent & logical Australian, can anyone explain to me the right answer to the question of who has the right to occupy Judea & Jerusalem & the surrounding lands of the levant?

    If we go to historical precepts backed by archeological evidence, it looks like all coastal areas of the levant were originally occupied by Phonecians who I understand were the descendants of the Minoans of Crete. Therefore all of…

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    1. George Fink

      Professorial Research Fellow

      In reply to Kim Bulwinkel

      Suggest that you read the several first hand accounts by the first century historian, Titus Flavius Josephus, Martin Goodman's "Rome and Jerusalem" and Simon Sebag Montefiore's "Jerusalem"

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    2. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Kim Bulwinkel

      If before 705 CE (when the Al Aqsa Mosque was first built) is the measure of who has the right to the land, I would suggest that a few nations in the West with indigenous populations might disagree.

      The fact is that Gaza's population are largely Palestinian refugees (or descendants of) from the 1948 declaration of the state of Israel. Gaza is an open-air prison camp blockaded by land and sea by Israel.

      I am sure that George and friends will descend on my comment to inform you how evil Hamas…

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    3. William Bruce

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Kim Bulwinkel

      I think prior to Jewish occupation it was occupied by Canaanites.
      I don't know, do the Palestinians have links to them?

      It is ridiculous in this day and age to lay claim to land that was occupied and then unoccupied by your ancestors 2000 yrs ago.....

      England would more credibly belong to France and Rome under this rationale.

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    4. William Bruce

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Kim Bulwinkel

      I second Mike Hansen...fact is Israel won't settle because people are making money out of this war "trade".

      Worth noting Sharon boasted "...We the jews control America..."

      So,.. USA gives Israel $3,000,000,000 plus++ each year....AND low & behold "Pro-Israel" "people/fronts" are VERY, VERY generous in giving money to BOTH USA Political parties. Umm..

      I imagine if you have both sides of politics in your pocket & can perhaps "finance/own" MSM (read Murdoch et al) you have a monopoly on the narrative & agenda.....

      This spake me!

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    5. Baz M

      Law graduate & politics/markets analyst

      In reply to Kim Bulwinkel

      so based on this premise you agree than that Australia should be handed back to Aborigines? The US and Canada to native Indians, and Latin American to the Incas?

      Im afraid you cant apply selectively specific notions of right and wrong to specific geographical areas of the globe only.

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    6. William Bruce

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Kim Bulwinkel

      Baz M notes:- ".. so based on this premise you agree than that Australia should be handed back to Aborigines? The US and Canada to native Indians, and Latin American to the Incas?".....

      And perhaps also,... if it is ok for Jews to toss out and/or EXCLUDE Muslims from "Jewish" lands is it OK for Muslims or Christians to toss Jews out of Muslin & Christian lands?

      Seems clear Israel GOVT (& shills) and it's institutionalised KILLING, DESTRUCTION, repression & racism is a slap in the face to all decency & humanity....

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  7. Graham Mantle

    Would be (retired)

    If there's one thing Israel learned from the treatment of Jews in Europe (pogroms, ghettos, beatings, concentration camps, mass imprisonment), it is how to apply some of that treatment to others. They refused the opportunity to deal with Hamas as an overwhelmingly elected legitimate government, choosing to "negotiate" (walk all over) those on the West Bank while impounding the other half of the Palestinians behind the wall.
    No matter what their assertions or beliefs, a legitimately elected government is accountable and capable of negotiation. That would not, however, accommodate Israel's agenda.
    War is not the way to go. But if the Arab nations ever get their act together and flex some serious diplomatic muscle, we might find a bit of equilibrium in the matter.

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    1. George Fink

      Professorial Research Fellow

      In reply to Graham Mantle

      The bog standard anti-Semitic (anti-Israel) response. First, Mantle's attempted analogy between Israel's actions and the pogroms, Einsatzgruppen, and death camps for Jews in Europe is obscene!! This is especially the case in view of the fact that rather than establishing gas chambers in Gaza, Israel provides Gaza with its daily living including medical requirements!! How can the two quite different circumstances be compared...such a comparison is as evil as it is absurd!
      Israel would have been…

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    2. Baz M

      Law graduate & politics/markets analyst

      In reply to Graham Mantle

      George as you eloquently put in backing up Israels actions that; "Israel provides Gaza with its daily living including medical requirements!!". This is the point that Israels self righteous attitude further increased by the current extreme right wing government allows Israelis to think its ok to turn Gaza into a large jail. Noone wants Israel to provide anything. They want Israel to mind its own business and stop blockading Gaza, where Israel somehow thinks it can dictate the level of human living…

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  8. Hugh Breakey

    Moral Philosopher, Griffith University at Key Centre for Ethics, Law, Justice and Governance

    This article perplexes me. How can we have a discussion of the prospects for peace in the region that considers the roles of and fallout for Israel, Iran, the US, Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood without speaking of the motivations, decisions and actions of one of the conflict’s central protagonists, namely, Hamas?

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  9. George Fink

    Professorial Research Fellow

    Mike Hansen: The bottom line is that all Hamas needs to do is delete or modify the first four clauses of its Charter so that it no longer calls for the destruction of Israel and the expulsion or extermination of all Israelis. Peace would come to Gaza with a vengeance!

    Israel would re-open all its crossings including the sea and air! Subject to Hamas easing back on the Shariah strangle-hold on the people of Gaza, business and commerce would flourish and thrive immediately as it largely did between…

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    1. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to George Fink

      "I am sure that George and friends will descend on my comment to inform you how evil Hamas is and how noble and patient and caring that Israel is."

      You did not disappoint George.

      In this version of history where Israel is blameless and the Palestinian Arabs are evil, is there any chance that you may have overlooked some bad behaviour from Israel?

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    2. William Bruce

      Artist

      In reply to George Fink

      This is all immaterial....for the sake of all but “War profiteers” a fair settlement needs to be done NOW

      ..and as I understand it, Israel & USA won't talk to the Palestinians (or Hamas et al) and just DO A SETTLEMENT.....or table a fair & GENUINE offer for the world to see?

      Sure delay another 65yrs WHILST Israel steals their property, represses them (enslaves them) and attacks & murders their "defenceless people" with advanced military with relative safety.

      Israel just goes and murders 130 people and gets away with it?....Better than the 1,300 they killed last time.

      I would not treat a Dog like Israel GOVT treats HUMAN BEINGS….& what’s your take on Israelis shooting Palestinian children on their way to school? Rachael Corrie? & all the others including Jews?

      Lastly, to me the whole concept of the state of Israel is MAD & racist and barbaric....It ought be illegal to invade the unprotected minds of ALL children with religion.

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  10. Che Gorilla

    Human Rights Activist

    It is simply untrue to say that Pillar of Defense was in breach of international law. No respectable legal expert could say that.

    To conclude as the writer has done can only be reached if you consciously exclude the remaining Jews of the Middle East from having any legal or human rights. Even though most of them are descended from Jews once wide spread through Muslim lands but dispossessed and now concentrated in one remarkable little country

    We have just witnessed the most moral and strictly…

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  11. A Ahmed

    Student

    you may find it interesting to examine the views of a man often referred to as the 'Son of Hamas'.. that is His father is a founding member of this organization.

    The link below is to an interview on arabic tv (with subtitles), with Mus'ab Hassan Yousuf, "Son of Hamas" who after a life of Hamas and studying the quran is publicly blaming the teachings of islam as the cause of the continuing conflict. In this video and many others he makes the claim that "The God of Islam Suffers from Split Personality; and that Muhammad - is a False Prophet"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHq25tnZoFs

    watch this space and potentially if this man leads Palestine there will be a new era in the middle east. http://sonofhamas.com/

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  12. James Bush

    primary teacher

    Very happy to see a ceasefire, too many deaths on both sides. Will be very interesting to see who breaks it first, assuming it will be broken.

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  13. James Jenkin

    EFL Teacher Trainer

    The author describes the behaviour of Israelis, Iranians, Egyptians - but not Palestinians. This paints Palestinians as children, incapable of making their own decisions and taking responsibility for actions. They are being used as a symbol in an ideological battle by Western commentators on both sides.

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  14. Comment removed by moderator.

    1. In reply to George Fink

      Comment removed by moderator.

    2. In reply to George Fink

      Comment removed by moderator.

    3. William Bruce

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to George Fink

      George says "...whether you like it or not the biblical, historical, archaelogoical and UN evidence gives the Jews infinitely more "right" to live in Israel than the British and their descendents in Australia and the Americas."

      George notes... "gives Jews infinitely more "right" to live in Israel...."....Says it all!!....Racism dressed up as religion?

      Wasn't this the kind of thing Hitler was on about?

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  15. George Fink

    Professorial Research Fellow

    William Bruce PS
    Re your assertion "Lastly, to me the whole concept of the state of Israel is MAD & racist and barbaric....It ought be illegal to invade the unprotected minds of ALL children with religion" I agree with your last sentence, but why just limit it to tiny Israel (~ 8M people)? Furthermore, the majority of Jews in Israel are not religious. In contrast, Britain and most of its former colonies including Australia are partial theocracies...hence the Queen is "Defender…

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    1. William Bruce

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to George Fink

      George says of me ..."... but why just limit it to tiny Israel "

      And my reply is I did not do this so why am I being missrepresented?

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  16. duncan mills

    Social Ecologist

    The writer John Ralston Saul claims their is no greater lie than the half truth, because of the energy required to decode it.
    This article is not conversationally balanced nor does it invite serious discussion.
    We all are appalled by the innocent casualties, that is the consequence of failure to respect the other point of view; but
    where is the discussion of Hamas declared intention to exterminate Israel, in spite of the fact that it Israel was created by the UN.
    Israel has a moral right construct and maintain an appropriately defensive posture.
    This article falls short of the standard of balance in proposition I have come to expect from "The Conversation. It does not invite serious exploration of the issue because it lacks the generosity required for conversation.

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  17. Allan Lindh

    logged in via Facebook

    Left out of these conversations is the work that has been done on Palestinian and Jewish genomes in the last decade. Turns out the Palestinians are not Arabs, and the Jews are not European -- to a first approximation they are all Palestinians. Many Jews, and many Palestinians are more closely related to one another than either are to Europeans or Arabs. (This is hardly surprising to anyone who has friends from both groups -- they are in many cases indistinguishable in many respects.) They were…

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    1. William Bruce

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Allan Lindh

      Alan Lindh says.."They were apparently one Palestinian people until the Romans dispersed many of them 2000 years ago".....

      Makes sense...AND also until perhaps, set upon by brainwashing & "us and them" division freaks!....AND some "true believers" posting here.

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  18. George Fink

    Professorial Research Fellow

    To William Bruce: who asks me "How do you know what "the Palestinians" want?" Because I read the Hamas charter , and especially the first four clauses thereof (readily found on the web), which they reapeat daily. I also spend a lot of time in Israel and Palestine and speak frequently with Palestinian colleagues anf friends.

    To Allan Lindh: The up-to-date population genomics is much less robust than you portray. However, fratricide is common in the Mid-east...look at Syria and the never ending mortal battles between the Shiites and the Sunis...Come to think of it, fratricide was also common in the British Isles...remember what the Campbells did to the MacDonalds at Glencoe?...and the India-Pakistan conflict was/is hardly a Sunday picnic etc etc

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    1. William Bruce

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to George Fink

      Why no reasonable tabled settlement offer from Israel?
      Talk of "Negotiations" is fraudulent....Israel MUST put it in writing for the world to see how fair Israel is or their credit (& yours) is shot!

      It is piss or get off the pottie for Israel!

      You refer only to what "some" Palestinians might have wanted at some time past PROBABLY DUE TO RELENTLESS Israeli MURDER, Bombing, TERROR tactics, persecution, subjugation, torture, imprisonment, cruelty, thieving & YOU NAME IT...One can imagine they are pissed off. Time to build bridges....and stop being so one sided & PARANOID!

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    2. William Bruce

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to George Fink

      Also George, if Israel wanted Peace they would not oppose UN observers being stationed. FACT!

      And I note they killed UN observers when the so criminally invaded Lebanon a few years ago and cased such huge harm and damage.

      It seems obvious that Israel is getting away with horrendous CONTINUING HUMAN RIGHTS crimes because of it's infiltration & corruption of the Western political & media establishment by "Pro-Israel" shills.....and the shills that endlessly post "BS imaterial facts", "diversions" & "EXCUSES" for their crimes.

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    3. Allan Lindh

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to George Fink

      To George Fink: I'd be interested in what work you are referring to. I did a literature search in the last 12 months and believe my summary is fair.

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  19. George Fink

    Professorial Research Fellow

    To Kim Bulwinkel : thanks for your query re population numbers. May I please refer you to the web where wiki and other sites have all the stats. Broadly the population has grown by an order of magnitude since 1948

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  20. George Fink

    Professorial Research Fellow

    To William Bruce.....since the barbarian British invaders of Australia (1788) had no biblical, no historical , no archaeological and no UN authority, what gave the brits the right to murder all Tasmanian Aboriginals (the Tasmanian Genocide) and what gives "white" mainly Brit-derived Aussies the right to continue to occupy, plunder and mercilessly to oppress the few remaining Indigenous People? Given these facts what gives you the right to throw stones at Israel , the Israelis, the Jews and me....you are a hypocrite!

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    1. George Fink

      Professorial Research Fellow

      In reply to George Fink

      To William Bruce. Re UN peace keepers....nothing could be further from the truth! Israel has always welcomed them! If you check the facts it was people like Nasser and orgs like Hamas and Hezbollah who kill or frighten them off!

      You are so biased and ignorant that I shall discontinue my involvement in this so-called conversation

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  21. Baz M

    Law graduate & politics/markets analyst

    Thank you Shahram. Comprehensive piece outlining the inconvenient truths for all those who think this started purely due to Hamas rockets. Oh well, even though we love being told what to do in Australia by the US, at least we remain a great country of engaging in such debates openly. Id love to see any piece like this in mainstream US media, or even an IVY league university/college.

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  22. Allan Lindh

    logged in via Facebook

    To Shahram Akbarzadeh: Thank you for your article. The one thing I did not see, however, was any reference to the utterly irrational behavior of Hamas in continuing to fire rockets into Israel. They are of no military significance, and have, as near as I can determine, the sole effect of inviting an Israeli response every few years, which kills a large number of Gaza residents, and further degrades their very poor infrastructure. Why do they continue this pointless behavior, whose sole effect is to increase the suffering of Gaza residents?

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