tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/adam-giles-5000/articlesAdam Giles – The Conversation2018-11-18T23:35:26Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1069932018-11-18T23:35:26Z2018-11-18T23:35:26ZOne year on from Royal Commission findings on Northern Territory child detention: what has changed?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245875/original/file-20181115-194494-1i2zd66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Images like this one aired by the ABC's Four Corners programme helped trigger a Royal Commission - but its recommendations have still not been acted on. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABC Four Corners</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A change of government in the Northern Territory has done little or nothing to address the underlying issues relating to abusive practices inflicted on young offenders in detention - captured in images that sent shockwaves around Australia, and the wider world, more than two years ago.</p>
<p>On July 25, 2016, the ABC Four Corners investigative programme aired <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/australias-shame-promo/7649462">Australia’s Shame</a>, a documentary featuring disturbing imagery and footage of children being abused while held in the <a href="https://nt.gov.au/law/young-people/don-dale-youth-detention-centre-darwin">Don Dale Juvenile Detention Centre </a>in Darwin. </p>
<h2>‘Hooded, shackled, strapped to a chair and left alone’</h2>
<p>The evidence of abuse included accounts of detained boys who had been exposed to tear gas and the use of spit hoods while being held in isolation. This shone a national spotlight onto the violence perpetrated within juvenile justice institutions against some of society’s most vulnerable. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/evidence-of-nt-detention-centre-abuse-was-there-for-all-to-see-63084">Evidence of NT detention centre abuse was there for all to see</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>After the documentary aired, then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull announced plans for a Royal Commission into the Northern Territory’s juvenile detention system Royal Commission into the Protection and Detention of Children in the Northern Territory. The then NT chief minister, Adam Giles, of the Country Liberal Party whose federal representatives vote with the Nationals, responded to the Don Dale allegations, stating: “<a href="https://lens.monash.edu/@kate-fitz-gibbon/2018/02/28/1323316/medias-key-human-rights-role-in-the-wake-of-child-detention-abuses">I was shocked and disgusted…A community is judged by the way it treats its children</a>.” </p>
<p>Since the Don Dale allegations emerged, there has been a change of NT government, with Michael Gunner now chief minister of a Labor government. A question emerges though: what changes have occurred for children in detention?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245876/original/file-20181115-194516-1p2774o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245876/original/file-20181115-194516-1p2774o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245876/original/file-20181115-194516-1p2774o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245876/original/file-20181115-194516-1p2774o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245876/original/file-20181115-194516-1p2774o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245876/original/file-20181115-194516-1p2774o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245876/original/file-20181115-194516-1p2774o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Michael Gunner, chief minister of the Northern Territory, with Nunggubuyu woman Selena Uibo, minister for education and workforce training, photographed in June.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gregory Roberts/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>One Year on</h2>
<p>We have just marked the one-year anniversary of the findings and recommendations of the <a href="https://childdetentionnt.royalcommission.gov.au/Pages/Report.aspx#_Read">Royal Commission into the Protection and Detention of Children in the Northern Territory</a>. </p>
<p>The royal commission confirmed that over the past decade, children detained in the NT had been mistreated, verbally abused, humiliated, isolated or left alone for long periods, among other human rights breaches. At the sharp end of of rights breaches, the commission stated that many children held in detention had been assaulted by staff, who either wilfully ignored rules or were unaware of the rules. Either way, they clearly acted in breach of Australia’s international human rights obligations and some domestic laws.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-so-many-indigenous-kids-in-detention-in-the-nt-in-the-first-place-63257">Why are so many Indigenous kids in detention in the NT in the first place?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The royal commission found that senior government members were aware of but chose to ignore these abusive practices. The report made substantial <a href="https://childdetentionnt.royalcommission.gov.au/Documents/Royal-Commission-NT-Findings-and-Recomendations.pdf">recommendations</a> for reform.</p>
<p>One year on, Don Dale continues to be in operation despite the royal commission recommending it be closed as soon as possible. The ongoing use of the facility continues to arouse significant concerns among legal practitioners, human rights advocates and youth justice stakeholders. It raises a critical question of what has been achieved in the 12 months since the commission reported - and in over two years since the ABC exposed “Australia’s shame”. </p>
<h2>What has been achieved?</h2>
<p><a href="https://territoryfamilies.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0012/588828/Territory-Families-Annual-Report-2017-18-Web.pdf">The NT government asserts</a> that “Territory Families (an NT government department) is undertaking extensive reform of youth detention”, with the development of “an operating model that better considers the needs of young people”. It states that in 2017-2018 enhanced and specialised training has been completed, along with the hiring of 23 new recruits, the introduction of the ‘Australian Childhood Foundation’s Trauma Informed and Strength Based approach’ and Restorative Practice training. These developments represent important progress but recent high-profile incidents at the Don Dale detention centre pose further serious questions about the extent to which the problems at the heart of the Royal Commission remain unaddressed. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245885/original/file-20181115-194516-8b3jaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245885/original/file-20181115-194516-8b3jaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245885/original/file-20181115-194516-8b3jaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245885/original/file-20181115-194516-8b3jaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245885/original/file-20181115-194516-8b3jaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245885/original/file-20181115-194516-8b3jaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245885/original/file-20181115-194516-8b3jaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The notorious Don Dale youth detention centre near Darwin pictured last week after a distubance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Glenn Campbell/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Earlier this month, Don Dale dominated the media headlines again following reports of riots, fires within the detention centre and staff assaults. <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/northern-territory/territory-response-vehicles-and-riot-police-sent-to-disturbance-at-don-dale-youth-detention-centre/news-story/93bd47e5d6ba59ff95f244c023456044">Reports</a> stated that tear gas had been deployed. Other allegations reported include young women “<a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/nitv-news/article/2018/11/02/nt-government-denies-don-dale-shower-surveillance-girls-1">showering and using the toilet under the watchful eye of security cameras which are recording and monitoring on site</a>”.</p>
<p>These reports act as an unwelcome reminder of the continued broken state of NT’s juvenile justice system and the ongoing and urgent need for change to ensure better protections for young people held in detention.</p>
<h2>The continued failure to protect children’s rights</h2>
<p>It is nearly 30 years since Australia ratified the <a href="https://www.humanrights.gov.au/convention-rights-child">1989 Convention on the Rights of the Child</a>. Yet we still do not have a national strategy or measures to ensure the implementation of appropriate protection of children’s rights in Australia.</p>
<p>Serious concerns about the state of children’s rights in Australia were highlighted in the latest national coalition NGO report to the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child. The Children’s Report, published by UNICEF on November 1, draws on 58 consultations with 527 children and young people in 30 locations around Australia. Its findings draw significant attention to Australia’s gross violations of the rights of children held in detention. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/abuse-in-youth-detention-is-not-restricted-to-the-northern-territory-63101">Abuse in youth detention is not restricted to the Northern Territory</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The report makes a substantial <a href="https://www.unicef.org.au/Upload/UNICEF/Media/Documents/Child-Rights-Taskforce-NGO-Coalition-Report-For-UNCRC-LR.pdf">number of recommendations </a> that build and give national standing to those previously made by the royal commission. They include: that the government immediately review and amend youth justice legislation, policies and practices to ensure that all children are treated consistent with <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/crc.aspx">the UNCRC </a>and the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/ProfessionalInterest/beijingrules.pdf">Beijing Rules</a>. It also recommended that governments prioritise detention centres where children are placed as requiring immediate action as part of the implementation of the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/opcat.asp">Optional Protocol to the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment</a>.</p>
<p>Another recommendation was that all governments prohibit the use of solitary confinement other than as a last resort; prohibit the use of restraints against children and routine strip searches, unless all other options have been exhausted. Importantly, the report also recommends that governments ensure the existence of child specific, independent inspectorates and complaint mechanisms.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.unicef.org.au/Upload/UNICEF/Media/Documents/Child-Rights-Taskforce-NGO-Coalition-Report-For-UNCRC-LR.pdf">The Children’s Report</a> explicitly calls for governments to be held accountable to the children and young people affected by state failings in the provision of juvenile justice, and calls out the failure to implement the recommendations of the royal commission. </p>
<h2>Mechanisms for accountability</h2>
<p>The lack of substantive progress in the year since the commission reported highlights the need for accountability and independent implementation monitoring. Scepticism over the degree to which the commission will represent a moment of change is understandable. It is now more than 25 years after the Royal Commission into Aboriginal Deaths in Custody. For many, the lack of progress since that 1998 Royal Commission casts doubt over the potential for this royal commission to achieve meaningful change to the lives of young indigenous Australians in the NT. </p>
<p>The Northern Territory government has allocated <a href="https://territoryfamilies.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0012/588828/Territory-Families-Annual-Report-2017-18-Web.pdf">$70 million </a>for the construction of two new detention centres in Darwin and Alice springs. It is expected that these will be completed in mid-2020.</p>
<p>The royal commission established that the present situation is unacceptable. UNICEF’s report reaffirmed this on the international human rights stage. Change in this area cannot be slow and cannot be incremental. We have the evidence, the commission has laid out the road map and now action is needed. </p>
<p>We call on the NT government to act to better protect the rights of the children within its care.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106993/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Fitz-Gibbon is a member of the Monash Gender and Family Violence Research Program. Kate receives funding for family violence related research from the Australian Research Council, ANROWS, and Family Safety Victoria. Kate contributed to and endorsed the UNICEF 'Children's Report' (2018). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Faith Gordon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One year after the Royal Commission into Northern Territory child detention recommended big changes, little of substance has been done to tackle the problem by the NT Labor government.Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Monash UniversityFaith Gordon, Lecturer in Criminology, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/641062016-08-29T01:02:23Z2016-08-29T01:02:23ZDisunity is death? The demise of the CLP government in the Northern Territory<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135705/original/image-20160828-17847-b0itm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Michael Gunner is the NT's new chief minister following a landslide election win.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Neda Vanovac</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Before Saturday’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/">Northern Territory election</a> Burt, the psychic crocodile in a popular tourist attraction in Darwin, <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/lifestyle/plunge-on-clp-after-burt-the-croc-picks-upset-win/news-story/54d21374bb493693d56befe7c05fe8c5">predicted</a> a Country Liberal Party (CLP) victory. The bookmakers’ odds shifted slightly, with the price on a CLP victory falling from A$12 to A$10. Labor went from $1.01 to $1.03, suggesting the non-credulous punters were in the know.</p>
<p>Supporting predictions of a swing and that opinions had been formed well before the election campaign, a record number of voters had <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/08/surge-in-early-voting-at-2016-northern-territory-election.html">cast their ballots</a> before election day.</p>
<p>In the event, as ever, the online betting agencies were the winners. </p>
<p>Apart from the CLP, the other losers were the sausage sizzlers. Because of a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-27/nt-election-independents-cry-foul-of-100m-exclusion-zone/7787518">new rule</a> banning handing out how-to-vote cards and advertising within 100 metres of the polling booth, at many booths voters were able to park between the beckoning party faithful and the booth, spelling economic irrelevance for putative sizzlers.</p>
<p>The big winner, of course, was Labor. On the election evening’s counting, the ALP had clearly won 13 seats, a majority in the 25-member Legislative Assembly. The CLP had won only two. </p>
<h2>Where it was won</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/a-moving-trainwreck-why-the-clp-will-be-swept-from-office-in-the-northern-territory-63345">As I predicted</a>, three independents were elected: in the Darwin rural area the veteran <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/nels/">Gerry Wood</a> and the Speaker <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/goyd/">Kezia Purick</a>; and the ex-CLP deputy chief minister, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/aral/">Robyn Lambley</a>, won Araluen, a seat in Alice Springs. </p>
<p>After election night I saw about six seats still in some doubt. ABC psephologist <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/">Anthony Green</a> predicted Labor would have a final tally of at least 16, with four seats too close to call.</p>
<p>I suspect the CLP will still win <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/kath/">Katherine</a> and Adam Giles’ seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/brai/">Braitling</a> in Alice Springs, giving it four members in the assembly. That is because of the new <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/02/northern-territory-adopts-optional-preferential-voting-and-bans-campaigning-near-polling-places.html">optional preferential voting system</a>.</p>
<p>In Braitling, for example, Giles led the Labor candidate by about 450 votes on first preferences. He was faced with four independents, three unsympathetic to the CLP, plus the Greens. In a conventional election he would lose the seat on preferences. </p>
<p>These four candidates have twice the votes required to elect Labor on a two-party-preferred basis – if their preferences were all distributed. What we don’t know is how many of these ballot papers were not filled out except for a simple “1” for the voter’s preferred independent. </p>
<p>Conversely, in another tight challenge, this effect means Labor may yet win <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/kara/">Karama</a> in Darwin from a strong independent, former Labor leader Delia Lawrie. That would give it 18 seats.</p>
<h2>Why was the election important?</h2>
<p>Apart from a change of government, what is the significance of this election?</p>
<p>It obviously confirms that the NT and the Australian electorates are in a volatile phase. But I see it as an even more transitional election than the 2012 poll. </p>
<p>In 2012 the CLP swept to victory because it won the Aboriginal vote for the first time, picking up five of the six “bush” (regional) seats. In 2016 the Aboriginal vote has returned to Labor, a process evident in voting in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/ling/">Lingiari</a> in the intervening two federal elections.</p>
<p>The return of the Aboriginal vote to Labor is not stable. The new government is going to have to do something serious about reforming bush local government, decentralising it and returning more power to communities. It is also going to have to do something about housing and community affairs. </p>
<p>The growth of Aboriginal assertion was evidenced by the large number of highly credible Aboriginal candidates. One Aboriginal independent in the seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/nhul/">Nhulunbuy</a>, Yingiya Mark Guyula, obtained 42% of the primary vote and gave Labor deputy leader Lynne Walker a scare. </p>
<p>Guyula is a senior figure in the Yolngu Nations Assembly, which is trying to establish treaty rights with the NT and federal governments. Expect more Aboriginal assertion.</p>
<p>Another factor in this election pointed to Darwin and the NT becoming more socially similar to the rest of Australia. Sexism, leading to the departure from the government of four women MLAs, was one factor in the CLP’s demise.</p>
<p>The CLP must change if it is to renew. Giles <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/northern-territory-election-labor-wins-as-adam-giles-concedes-20160827-gr2rcg.html">blamed “disunity”</a> for the demise of his government. That is one description of the shenanigans that went on, but the CLP was really the victim of new times.</p>
<p>Michael Gunner is the first chief minister <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-27/labor-wins-nt-election-in-landslide/7791604">born in the NT</a>. That itself is an indicator of the NT’s socio-demographic maturation away from its traditional “frontier” and male-dominated ethos.</p>
<h2>Hard choices</h2>
<p>And what of the new Labor government? </p>
<p>Gunner did some brave things during the election campaign. He indicated he is going to use natural attrition permanently to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-25/nt-treasury-costs-clp-and-labor-promises/7786296">reduce the numbers</a> of the overblown NT public service. This is necessary if any semblance of control over the NT’s fiscal position is to be achieved. </p>
<p>He also promised to <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/business/labor-planning-to-allow-uber-to-operate-in-northern-territory-if-it-wins-august-election/news-story/77a12b0cfb612b880e633342226b9af2">allow Uber</a> to enter the Darwin market. Privileging future consumers over existing interests – in this case taxi drivers – has not previously been an NT government attribute. </p>
<p>He has <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-18/clp-votes-down-icac-style-anti-corruption-commission-motion/6554992">promised an ICAC-type body</a> – a direct threat to the “mates” system that characterised the previous CLP government (for example, in the allocation of water licences). </p>
<p>However, Gunner has impending problems. A significant proportion of the community vehemently opposes <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-06/new-fracking-laws-begin-in-northern-territory/7571978">shale gas fracking</a>. Labor promised a moratorium while it considers the issue. But next year the NT is likely to enter into recession and onshore gas exports are its only likely economic lifeline. Hard choices will have to be made.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64106/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rolf Gerritsen has received funding from the NT Departments of Education and Local Government.</span></em></p>The Country Liberal Party really was the victim of the times in its landslide loss in Saturday’s Northern Territory election.Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/633452016-08-17T03:54:40Z2016-08-17T03:54:40ZA moving trainwreck? Why the CLP will be swept from office in the Northern Territory<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133890/original/image-20160812-20932-14zcjmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Adam Giles' Country Liberal Party expected at least two terms in government in the Northern Territory when it won office in 2012.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dean Lewins</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the political voyeur, the inevitable defeat of a government is full of interest. Once they have lost the mandate of heaven, declining governments seem also to lose their luck. Stumbles become crises and bureaucratic failures scandals. There is much that is politically salacious to discuss.</p>
<p>This is the case for the Country Liberal Party (CLP) government in the Northern Territory. The CLP faces <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/08/2016-northern-territory-election.html">near-certain defeat</a> at the polls on August 27.</p>
<h2>A series of disasters</h2>
<p>To general amazement the CLP <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-the-nt-election-outcome-a-shockwave-or-a-regional-ripple-9138">captured office</a> in 2012 on the back of winning the Aboriginal “bush” vote for the first time since NT self-government in 1978.</p>
<p>In 2012, the CLP swept the “bush” seats and won government. That was because of the leadership of Terry Mills and his partnership with Alison Anderson, initially elected as a Labor MLA in 2005 and the most formidable Aboriginal politician in NT history. </p>
<p>The CLP expected at least two terms in government. That dream is about to turn to dust.</p>
<p>Shortly after securing government, Adam Giles overthrew Mills as CLP leader and chief minister. This was interpreted “down south” as a panic reaction to the unexpected overthrow of Ted Baillieu in Victoria. But it had more to do with some “good old boys” in the parliamentary party seizing upon the inevitable stumbles of a new government and an opportunistic reaction to public hostility to the government <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/business/nt-power-prices-tipped-to-fall-by-5-per-cent-from-january-1/news-story/25a336afac083135b4de6e65a85ce3f8">setting electricity prices</a> at a level that would maintain an efficient power generation system. </p>
<p>Giles was now chief minister and electricity price increases were reduced. So far so good for the CLP. But it was not to last.</p>
<p>A wave of misadventures rolled over the government. Dave Tollner was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-22/nt-deputy-leader-dave-tollner-resigns-over-gay-slur-comments/5690686">forced to resign</a> as treasurer over homophobic comments; he was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/10/controversial-mp-dave-tollner-big-winner-in-northern-territory-reshuffle">later reinstated</a>. </p>
<p>The CLP’s Aboriginal women MPs were subject to racist and sexist slurs in the partyroom. Two (including Anderson) of the three <a href="https://theconversation.com/pups-recruits-cause-a-stir-and-ripples-may-spread-beyond-nt-26001">left the government</a> and eventually became independents. </p>
<p>The government began to lose public support and goodwill. It privatised government assets, like the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-24/nt-government-confirms-$424m-tio-sale/5912838">Territory Insurance Office</a>. But NT voters were in no mood for economic rationalism.</p>
<p>The government’s support further eroded, particularly when Labor rid itself of an unpopular leader (Delia Lawrie) and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-23/nt-labor-unveils-new-look-front-bench-resignation-delia-lawrie/6415136">replaced her</a> with an electable one (Michael Gunner). Then Mills’ former deputy chief minister, Robyn Lambley, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-17/robyn-lambley-quits-clp-to-sit-as-independent/6554140">left the government</a> and became an independent. Suddenly, the government had lost its comfortable majority and faced a more contested parliamentary environment. </p>
<p>Its speaker and former deputy leader, Kezia Purick, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-20/kezia-purick-quits-country-liberals-nt-government-loses-majority/6632916">also left the CLP</a> and became an independent, mostly over planning issues but also irked by the sexism/homophobia of her male colleagues. The government tried to replace her as speaker <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/nt-speaker-kezia-purick-holds-government-ministers-in-contempt-of-parliament-over-misleading-ads/news-story/172d320529058c855b7bd195938c3d79">but failed</a>. This was a portent.</p>
<p>Defections from the CLP’s organisational wing started; a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-17/new-proposed-political-party-opposed-to-fracking/6627904">new party</a>, <a href="http://1territory.party/">1 Territory</a>, is contesting this election as a result. </p>
<p>The pace of problems picked up. Sports Minister Nathan Barrett <a href="http://www.mamamia.com.au/nathan-barrett-resigns/">resigned from cabinet</a> in June after sending videos of himself performing a sex act to a constituent. And, in recent weeks, the Young CLP president, Ben Dawson, <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/young-country-liberals-party-president-ben-dawson-leaves-to-work-for-independent-candidate-terry-mills/news-story/f51811ae1e44439d43ba2ec3b02b8017">resigned from the party</a>. </p>
<h2>The 2016 campaign</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/don-dale-royal-commission">Don Dale Detention Centre</a> imbroglio has dominated the election campaign. An <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2016/07/25/4504895.htm">ABC Four Corners program</a> revealed systemic abuse of children in the NT’s juvenile justice system under both Labor and CLP administrations. </p>
<p>Instant national outrage led to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull initiating a royal commission to investigate the abuse.</p>
<p>Ironically, apart from embarrassing progressive/liberal Territorians, this scandal did not damage the Giles government, which is <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/nt-leader-adam-giles-tells-politicians-to-play-nice/news-story/c1318f96b9dd2ed94db6dbb7449b280d">now campaigning</a> on law-and-order issues – a reliable vote-winner for the CLP. Giles has even had the gall to claim that the program was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/29/adam-giles-suggests-lawyers-who-spoke-to-four-corners-had-political-motives">politically motivated</a>.</p>
<p>To a degree, all these problems were part of an existential conflict within the CLP. The Giles government is of the traditional “good old boys” developmentalist-style of the CLP: a cross between Hansonite hostility to the “other” and Bjelke-Petersen-style state subsidy of the “mates”. But Darwin has changed; the latte drinkers’ population ratio is now similar to that in southern capitals.</p>
<p>Greens voters <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/">now exist</a> in the same proportion as in other Australian cities. A new conservative party is required to adjust to these realities. This sociopolitical conflict will play out after the election.</p>
<p>Both parties have campaigned in good pork-barrelling style and have made promises that will be fiscally unaffordable. Ratings agency Moody’s recently <a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/nts-credit-rating-downgraded/news-story/6574a7c19a9d4c3e9cf409dd373f2720">downgraded the NT’s credit rating</a>. But the eventual budgetary reckoning can wait. </p>
<h2>What to expect</h2>
<p>In any case, it seems the content of the policies released is of little consequence; the electors have made up their minds. They are not exactly <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/wayne-goss-a-shy-premier-who-brought-forth-the-sunshine-20141110-11jsdr.html">waiting with baseball bats</a> on their porches but enough of them have made up their minds to sweep the CLP from office.</p>
<p>The CLP’s vote in the urban areas will decline, though not by anywhere near the 20% <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/08/01/mediareach-64-36-labor-northern-territory/">some polls predict</a>. It will probably lose only one urban seat. The CLP will lose government in the bush. Is this Alison Anderson’s final political impact?</p>
<p>I expect Labor to win back all the bush electorates – <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/daly/">Daly</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/arnh/">Arnhem</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/araf/">Arafura</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/nama/">Namatjira</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/stua/">Stuart</a> – that it lost at the 2012 election. It will also gain <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/blai/">Blain</a> in Palmerston, notwithstanding that Mills is running as an independent. It will form government with 17 seats.</p>
<p>The CLP will retain three seats in Darwin/Palmerston, plus <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/kath/">Katherine</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/brai/">Braitling</a> in Alice Springs. So it will be the opposition, with five seats.</p>
<p>There will be three independents: Gerry Wood and Purick in the Darwin rural area and Lambley in Alice Springs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>In the past two years Rolf Gerritsen has received commissioned research funding from the Northern Territory departments of Education and Local Government.</span></em></p>The Country Liberal Party government in the Northern Territory faces near-certain defeat on August 27.Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/632582016-08-01T04:39:52Z2016-08-01T04:39:52ZJuvenile detention royal commissioners must reach out to rebuild public trust<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132537/original/image-20160801-25637-1l56la5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Brian Martin (centre) resigned as royal commissioner following perceived conflicts of interest relating to his and his daughter's former roles.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Andrew Taylor</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Brian Martin has <a href="https://theconversation.com/head-of-royal-commission-into-nt-youth-detention-quits-63325">stepped down</a> as head of the royal commission into the treatment of juveniles in detention centres in the Northern Territory. His decision comes after controversy since his appointment over perceived conflicts of interest regarding his daughter’s former role with the NT government and his record as the territory’s Supreme Court chief justice.</p>
<p>Martin has been replaced by Margaret White, a former Queensland Supreme Court justice, and Mick Gooda, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Justice Commissioner.</p>
<h2>Do royal commissions work?</h2>
<p>Law professor Liora Salter <a href="http://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/dalholwj12&div=44&id=&page=">once observed</a> that royal commissions suffer a basic contradiction. </p>
<p>These commissions present a rare opportunity to broker transformative social change. They establish a highly public space in which those at society’s margins can give voice to their experiences and be heard on equal terms to those in authority. </p>
<p>At the same time, they are also staging grounds in which participants defend financial, institutional and legal interests. And they are confined by the pragmatic and political goals embodied in their terms of reference. These factors combined narrow a commission’s transformative potential.</p>
<p>Most commissions resolve this contradiction in favour of incremental, reform-minded policy recommendations informed by a focused, factual inquiry and crafted to maximise the likelihood of acceptance by politicians.</p>
<p>Royal commissions that succeed in doing more than this – those that reshape public understanding of a problem and foster consensus toward root-and-branch social change – are comparatively rare. Their accomplishments flow not just from strong findings and recommendations but from intelligent procedure.</p>
<p>The competing visions captured in Salter’s analysis are evident in the controversy surrounding the appointment of a joint <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/2016-07-28/royal-commission-child-protection-and-youth-detention-systems-northern-territory">federal and NT royal commission</a> into the NT’s youth detention system.</p>
<h2>The need for political impartiality</h2>
<p>Critics have questioned the federal government’s swiftness in setting the commission’s terms of reference. They have <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-29/aboriginal-groups-not-consulted-on-royal-commission/7671222">challenged in particular</a> the limited consultation that preceded those terms.</p>
<p>Many of these criticisms reflect the transformative aspirations that civic groups place in royal commissions. They signal the potential for the inquiry to not only address the events that occurred <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-25/young-boy-victimised-in-youth-detention-in-northern-territory/7657708">at the Don Dale facility</a> or the deficient practices of NT youth detention officials, but to interrogate deep-seated social and political structures that contribute to the <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/04/15/national-crisis-indigenous-incarceration-rates-worse-25-years">over-incarceration of Indigenous youth</a>. </p>
<p>The government’s response to this criticism, in contrast, exhibits a quintessentially strategic and utilitarian approach to the inquiry. Attorney-General George Brandis <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/29/george-brandis-no-time-for-endless-public-seminar-on-royal-commission">said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The fact that we didn’t hold some endless public seminar with any number of groups to talk about what should be in the terms is hardly the point … The test is whether it will come up with actionable answers.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Brandis’ statement is disingenuous and disrespectful. There is a reason royal commissions are often colloquially referred to as “public inquiries”. They are a public enterprise meant to restore public confidence in response to legitimate public concerns. </p>
<p>The public are stakeholders in an inquiry; it is for their interest, and in response to their demands, that inquiries are struck. Consultation that is thoughtful and fair, not endless, appropriately reflects an ethic of public accountability that undergirds the entire exercise.</p>
<p>On this measure, the NT royal commission is off to a poor start. It is clear, for example, that NT Chief Minister Adam Giles played a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2016/s4509416.htm">substantive role</a> in developing the terms of reference. But no probing investigation into the oversight of the detention system could exclude senior members of his government – or Giles himself. That Giles contributed to the terms of an investigation in which he is likely to be a subject is unseemly.</p>
<p>If the appointment of a joint NT and federal inquiry is intended to signify the NT government’s willingness to be held accountable for its conduct, its senior officials should have taken the responsible step of recusing themselves from setting its terms.</p>
<p>While not limiting the inquiry to scrutiny of the events at Don Dale, the terms of reference also do not direct the commission to consider fundamental questions going to the propriety of the youth detention system itself.</p>
<p>At their broadest level, the terms direct the commission to consider what should be done to prevent mistreatment of youth in detention, but not whether the detention system is premised on a flawed approach to the individual and societal problems it is meant to ameliorate. Broader consultation would have forced the government to confront these questions and, at minimum, to defend the choice of more restricted terms.</p>
<h2>Advice to the new commissioners</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-28/nt-youth-detention-royal-commission-who-is-brian-martin/7670576">initial choice of commissioner</a> compounded these difficulties. Martin is clearly an accomplished former judge and public servant, and no doubt a person of integrity. But these qualities alone do not make the stuff of a successful commissioner. </p>
<p>Even a person of integrity will be undermined in their execution of an inquiry if, for reasons sometimes beyond their control, they cannot instil confidence among those whose confidence the inquiry is intended to restore. Martin reconsidered whether he was the right candidate to lead the inquiry, and correctly decided to step down.</p>
<p>White and Gooda can take immediate steps to counteract the inquiry’s shortcomings thus far. They should liberally construe their terms of reference to consider “other relevant matters” and subjects “reasonably incidental” to the terms as expressly stated, and afford an early opportunity for those excluded from the government consultation to give input on the inquiry’s future direction. </p>
<p>This will mean first taking an inclusive approach to identifying those participants who will be granted standing at the inquiry. The commissioners should then convene an early public hearing among those participants to invite their interpretation of the terms of reference, and adopt a blueprint for inquiry conduct that rationally considers their claims. </p>
<p>In this manner, the commissioners can remain faithful to the terms but also approach their inquiry as a truly public enterprise guided by the public interest – and not by a political master.</p>
<p>They must also think about confidence in their future conclusions as being intrinsically linked to confidence in their process. They should appoint inquiry staff who represent and command the respect of the communities most immediately impacted by the NT’s youth criminal justice system. </p>
<p>They should locate their inquiry office in a neighbourhood whose youth have frequent contact with that system, and strive to be visible in the community. They should enter youth detention facilities themselves and speak directly with the young people detained there. </p>
<p>And without compromising fairness to those rightly owed an opportunity to respond to serious allegations against them, they must consider means of facilitating the testimony of youth on terms that are compassionate and dignified. </p>
<p>Giving a forum to their voices – obliging the public to view the well-being of young offenders as a matter of collective responsibility and not as a remote task of government – is likely to achieve more than the actionable answers politicians seek.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63258/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Hoole does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The accomplishments of successful royal commissions flow not just from strong findings and recommendations but from intelligent procedure.Grant Hoole, Vice-Chancellor's Postdoctoral Fellow in Law, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/600472016-06-17T01:57:46Z2016-06-17T01:57:46ZState of the states: how local politics in the Northern Territory could muddy the federal vote<p><em>Ahead of polling day on July 2, our <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2016">State of the states series</a> takes stock of the key issues, seats and policies affecting the vote in each of Australia’s states and territories.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>The Northern Territory is but a petite player in federal politics. It has only two lower house MPs and two senators, the fewest of any of Australia’s jurisdictions. </p>
<p>But NT politics is never dull, with two headline-grabbing resignations during the federal campaign so far: one involving a local MP, the other a Labor senator. </p>
<p>Last weekend, Territory Sports Minister and Assistant Treasurer Nathan Barrett <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-11/nt-minister-nathan-barrett-resigns-amid-sex-video-allegations/7502236">resigned from cabinet</a> and said he would <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/more-to-come-says-nt-sex-scandal-mp-nathan-barrett/news-story/c3baa33b32b99d40529d26c88640e3d7">quit politics</a>, after <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/sports-minister-nathan-barrett-admits-sending-female-constituent--sexually-explicit-videos/news-story/5742bca2cbe8ce83f34fcd71d865851c?nk=5ccf14ef1fcd83b6bfe4a2862a38a2fe-1465778273">The NT News revealed</a> the married father of three had sent videos of himself engaged in a sex act to a constituent. It was the <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/opinion/labors-path-to-election-victory-clearer-after-nathan-barrett-sex-video-controversy/news-story/8ae39dafbd86dd414f2873b1d32eea1f">latest hit</a> to Adam Giles’ Country Liberal Party (CLP) government.</p>
<p>Last month, Labor was left scrambling to find a new candidate, two weeks into the official campaign, after <a href="https://theconversation.com/nova-peris-quits-parliament-after-single-term-59894">senator Nova Peris’s sudden resignation</a>. Her unexpected departure followed <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/labor-senator-nova-peris-a-frontrunner-for-afls-top-indigenous-job-20160523-gp1vuo.html">news</a> that she was among the front-runners for a job with the AFL.</p>
<p>But the departure of Peris, who wasn’t that popular, is unlikely to make much difference to the NT senate result. Needing only 33% (plus one) of the two-party preferred vote, both major parties are virtually guaranteed a senator each: CLP senator and Indigenous Affairs Minister Nigel Scullion and new Labor candidate, former NT minister and journalist Malarndirri McCarthy. That means the only real contest is for the two lower house seats, Solomon and Lingiari. </p>
<p>What makes the election here different from the rest of Australia is that an <a href="http://www.ntec.nt.gov.au/2016%20Territory%20Election/Pages/default.aspx">NT election</a> will be held just eight weeks after the federal poll. So the two elections have become closer than should be normal in terms of significant issues.</p>
<h2>Key issues in the NT’s two lower house seats</h2>
<p>In some respects the Territory mirrors the national election contest. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/solo/">Solomon</a>, comprising the adjacent cities of Darwin and Palmerston, is one of the Coalition’s most marginal seats nationally. And the issues that matter are much the same as for the rest of Australia.</p>
<p>For example, the Coalition’s policy of keeping existing negative-gearing rules for residential property has a deal of support in Darwin. Here, senior public servants and businessmen traditionally invest for their retirement in housing elsewhere, mostly in Queensland.</p>
<p>The NT government is spending a lot of infrastructure money in Palmerston, such as for a new hospital. This is mostly paid for by the federal government, so for this election it is a Coalition “sweetener”; for the NT election on August 27, it will become an NT government initiative.</p>
<p>I predict a Labor gain in Solomon. Current CLP member Natasha Griggs is once again up against Labor’s Luke Gosling. In the last election, Gosling managed to secure a small swing to his party and almost took the seat, despite the national landslide to the Abbott Coalition.</p>
<p>Griggs’ hopes of re-election are also undermined by the minor parties and independents, which – aside from the Greens and some independents – mostly comprise people from her side of politics. The resulting leakage of preferences will damage the Coalition’s chances. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/ling/">Lingiari</a>, Labor warhorse Warren Snowdon – the member for most of the past 30 years – will probably win the seat for one last time. He is a deft campaigner in Aboriginal communities. During the last election he won them on the threat to their child payments of Abbott’s childcare payment scheme. His returning CLP opponent is Tina MacFarlane, who is best known in the Mataranka-Roper area.</p>
<p>Snowdon looks likely to be aided by a reduced vote for the CLP in Darwin and Alice Springs. The only sleeper issue in Lingiari is a record low enrolment, which will affect the Aboriginal communities’ vote.</p>
<h2>Back-to-back polls make it harder for the CLP</h2>
<p>Pundits, apparatchiks and political scientists have long wondered about the relationship between federal and state issues in elections. A hopeful truism is that the voters are sensible enough to differentiate between the issues at both levels. For the NT in this federal election, I am not so sure that will hold.</p>
<p>On June 6, <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/clp-popularity-in-alice-springs-takes-hit-in-latest-poll/news-story/917d31be55a2dfa4acca76bd8339f684">The NT News reported</a> on an opinion poll ahead of the August 27 Territory election, which showed much-lower-than-usual votes for both the CLP and Labor (CLP 28%, ALP 24%).</p>
<p>The significance of this is that, if accurate, Labor’s vote has declined by a third, but the CLP vote is halved from traditional levels. According to the survey, the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-05/lambley-resigns-as-deputy-nt-leader/4554614">ex-deputy chief minister</a> and former CLP member <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-17/robyn-lambley-quits-clp-to-sit-as-independent/6554140">turned independent</a> Robyn Lambley had a <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/clp-popularity-in-alice-springs-takes-hit-in-latest-poll/news-story/917d31be55a2dfa4acca76bd8339f684">net approval rating of 40%</a> in Alice Springs.</p>
<p>That poll also showed a larger-than-usual primary <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/clp-popularity-in-alice-springs-takes-hit-in-latest-poll/news-story/917d31be55a2dfa4acca76bd8339f684">vote for small parties and independents</a> ahead of the Territory poll – though not for the Greens, whose support appears to be declining in tandem with the majors. Some of these independents, including the new <a href="http://1territory.party/">1 Territory Party</a>, are splinters on the right. They will attract normally CLP voters, but may not return preferences to the CLP. 1 Territory may even out-poll the Greens.</p>
<p>The Territory’s CLP government is unpopular for a variety of reasons. In 2013, it <a href="https://theconversation.com/darwinian-politics-its-survival-of-the-fittest-for-the-top-job-in-the-territory-12810">overthrew the chief minister</a>, Terry Mills, who had brought it to power after only four months in office. Abbott-like, the government introduced an ineffective post-election horror budget. It lost most of its Aboriginal members, who are now (bar one) independent MLAs.</p>
<p>The parliamentary party then <a href="https://theconversation.com/nt-spill-has-local-roots-pre-dating-any-queensland-induced-panic-37098">tried to overthrow</a> the present chief minister, Adam Giles, but failed because he refused to resign. Pure vaudeville!</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126418/original/image-20160614-12948-1vdupst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126418/original/image-20160614-12948-1vdupst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126418/original/image-20160614-12948-1vdupst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126418/original/image-20160614-12948-1vdupst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126418/original/image-20160614-12948-1vdupst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126418/original/image-20160614-12948-1vdupst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126418/original/image-20160614-12948-1vdupst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126418/original/image-20160614-12948-1vdupst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thousands of US Marines are regularly based in Darwin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/us-pacific-command/26388480550/in/album-72157666033920520/">U.S. Pacific Command/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The government has privatised the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-24/nt-government-confirms-$424m-tio-sale/5912838">Territory Insurance Office</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-07/darwin-port-deal-funds-quick-hit-to-nt-economy/7228000">leased Darwin’s port</a> for 99 years to a Chinese company with <a href="http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/landbridge-darwin-and-the-prc/">links to the People’s Liberation Army</a>. The Darwin port decision set off alarm bells among a number of defence analysts, and left former United States deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage “<a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/us-stunned-by-port-of-darwin-sale-to-chinese-20151116-gl0omf">stunned</a>”.</p>
<p>The government also <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/nt-speaker-kezia-purick-holds-government-ministers-in-contempt-of-parliament-over-misleading-ads/news-story/172d320529058c855b7bd195938c3d79?nk=5ccf14ef1fcd83b6bfe4a2862a38a2fe-1465515324">tried to sack</a> the present Speaker, Kezia Purick, who is now an independent and leading a popular revolt against the CLP over rural planning issues. </p>
<p>Some of these matters will surely figure in the federal election.</p>
<p>Looking beyond the federal election, it’s also important to note that the Territory’s population is stagnant: emigration is only just being covered by natural increase and overseas immigration. The <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/nt-budget-2016-territory-prepares-for-poll/news-story/66e006b1b30297f2f5fdff8659e91e02">economy is expected to worsen</a> next year, exacerbating out-migration. That means that in the next federal redistribution, the NT is likely to lose a lower house seat and become a single electorate, as it has been in the past.</p>
<p>So, even if it wins both seats at this federal election, Labor is likely to lose at least one seat at the next.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This is the last piece in our State of the states series. <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2016">Catch up on others</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>In the past two years Rolf Gerritsen has received commissioned research funding from the Northern Territory Departments of Education and Local Government</span></em></p>Territorians will go to the polls for the next Northern Territory election only eight weeks after the July 2 election – blurring the lines between local controversies and how people vote federally.Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370582015-02-03T04:17:55Z2015-02-03T04:17:55Z‘Strong’ men in peril: PM hangs on amid NT and Qld shake-up<p><em>* Updated Tuesday 11pm AEDT:</em> A state <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-voters-send-a-strong-message-to-eject-newman-37018">premier</a> gone, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/nt-chief-minister-giles-refuses-to-quit-after-leadership-coup/6065200">a chief minister</a> fighting off a coup, and a prime minister struggling to avoid the others’ fate. </p>
<p>Australian politics is suddenly all about consultative rather than “strong” leaders. </p>
<p>So what’s been going on behind that swing away from self-declared strong leaders? What are the lessons from the Queensland election and the power struggle in the Northern Territory? And has Tony Abbott shown any sign of learning what the true definition of a “strong leader” is?</p>
<h2>Trouble in the Top End</h2>
<p>In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the Northern Territory’s ruling Country Liberal Party revealed that government MPs had ousted Chief Minister Adam Giles, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/colleagues-lost-confidence-in-giles-says-new-westra-van-holthe/6065200">replacing him</a> – only temporarily, it later turned out – with Willem Westra van Holthe. </p>
<p>It’s important to note that the NT leadership spill has roots going back long before last weekend’s shock Queensland election result, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/nt-spill-has-local-roots-pre-dating-any-queensland-induced-panic-37098">Rolf Gerritsen has explained</a>.</p>
<p>But Westra van Holthe said that the rout of the Queensland Liberal National Party and its leader Campbell Newman was a contributing factor in moving against Giles:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Under my leadership, this government will be more consultative with Territorians and engage with them before we make important and crucial decisions … If you look at the result of the Queensland election, government there was punished because the people of Queensland thought they had lost touch with real people.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But the chief minister was not going down without a fight, refusing to quit his position. </p>
<p>Remarkably, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/giles-to-remain-nt-leader-westra-van-holthe-appointed-deputy/6067940">by Tuesday night</a> Giles had been <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/adam-giles-has-seen-off-a-challenge-from-his-colleagues-to-remain-leader-of-the-clp-in-the-northern-territory/story-fnk0b1zt-1227207013898">reconfirmed as chief minister</a>, with Westra van Holthe becoming his deputy.</p>
<h2>A nation’s captain at sea</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, just as the Top End power struggle appeared to be over, the federal government’s woes appeared to be deepening. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/warren-entsch-plans-resolution-of-tony-abbott-leadership-drama/6066842">Coalition backbenchers</a> including Queenslander Warren Entsch and West Australian Dennis Jensen have now spoken about the need for a leadership spill.</p>
<p>Their comments came just a day after <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/tony-abbott-press-club-speech-key-points-and-full-transcript/story-e6frg6n6-1227205021408">Abbott gave a speech</a> that he hoped would save his prime ministership, after too many misjudged “captain’s calls”.</p>
<p>Addressing a room full of journalists and Coalition colleagues at the National Press Club, he used <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/tony-abbott-press-club-speech-key-points-and-full-transcript/story-e6frg6n6-1227205021408">his prepared speech</a> to define his view of leadership:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Leadership is about making the right decisions for our country’s future. It’s not a popularity contest. It’s about real results, it’s about determination, and it’s about you.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, when questioned by reporters about his “captain’s pick” in awarding Prince Philip a knighthood <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-26/abbott-defends-knighthood-for-prince-philip/6046380">without consulting his cabinet</a>, Abbott promised to seek more advice from them in future:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I like my colleagues, I respect my colleagues, I trust my colleagues, above all else, to want to do the right thing by themselves, by our party, by the government and by the country.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Those two quotes illustrate the dilemma of modern political leadership. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"562529229753942016"}"></div></p>
<h2>How ‘strong’ can a leader be without alienating people?</h2>
<p>One of Australia’s leading scholars on political leadership, the late Graham Little, concentrated much of his research on answering this question. His 1988 book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Strong-Leadership-Thatcher-Reagan-Eminent/dp/0195547594">Strong Leadership: Thatcher, Reagan and an Eminent Person</a>, was based on his studies of leadership through observing Malcolm Fraser, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. </p>
<p>Based on this research, Little argued that strong party leaders “have become symbols of who we are, personifications of our way of life and our deepest beliefs”. In arguing this, Little acknowledged a changing political environment in which a leader’s personality and party ideology were becoming intertwined. </p>
<p>Little also argued that “a strong leader” must preserve his own thinking by insulating himself against other points of view. Above all, a “strong leader” must trust in his convictions, often at the expense of others.</p>
<p>Less than two decades later, Australian politics professor Judith Brett applied Little’s theories to John Howard, in her Quarterly Essay, <a href="http://www.quarterlyessay.com/issue/exit-right-unravelling-john-howard">Exit Right: The Unravelling of John Howard</a>, which analysed the outcome of the 2007 election. Early in the essay she noted that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>sometimes Strong Leaders lose. All through 2007, as opinion polls gave Labor a minimum of a ten-point lead, and Howard was staring at defeat, we saw the inherent limits of this style of leadership. Strong Leaders can’t last forever; they can’t admit their mistakes; and they’re not very good at policy.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The rise and fall of Howard and Rudd</h2>
<p>2007 marked a turning point in Australian politics. During the 2007 federal election, “strong leadership” was at its apex, as Howard struggled to maintain his “strong leadership” while Kevin Rudd thrived on his own.</p>
<p>The ALP rode a wave based on highly personalised slogans like “<a href="http://www.stwgroup.com.au/what-we-do/projects/minerals-council-of-of-australia-keep-mining-strong-2">Kevin 07”</a>and <a href="http://electionspeeches.moadoph.gov.au/speeches/2007-kevin-rudd">“New Leadership”</a> to win that election. </p>
<p>The ALP’s strategy was to personify Rudd as Modern Labor in every conceivable fashion. It achieved this by portraying Rudd as a master of new policy initiatives, the boy from country Queensland where the ALP itself had been born, and the man who understood the party’s values better than anyone else.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/r2ujP6p9f-g?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Kevin Rudd’s 2007 pitch for the prime ministership.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since the 2007 election, the voting public has not responded well to the “Strong Leadership” strategy. But the major political parties have yet to move on.</p>
<p>At the 2010 federal election, Gillard tried to find “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2010/08/02/2971264.htm">the real Julia</a>” as a model for “Strong Leadership” and ended up losing a number of seats, <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/elections/federal_elections/2010/">hobbling into minority government in the process</a>. </p>
<h2>A loud message from Queensland</h2>
<p>Negative reactions to “Strong Leadership” have occurred in state elections too, most notably in <a href="http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/publications/research-papers/1386-2010-victorian-state-election/download">Victorian Labor’s loss in 2010</a>, (“strong leadership for the times ahead”), and the South Australian Labor (<a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/01/29/in-south-australia-jay4sa-a-bizarre-mirror-image-of-kevin07/">Jay4SA)</a> near defeat <a href="http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/elections/state-elections/2014-state-election-results-summary">last year</a>.</p>
<p>Last Saturday’s Queensland election was the clearest sign yet of voters’ feelings about strong leadership taken too far.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X806o5dXDrg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Despite promoting a “Strong Team”, Campbell Newman dominated the LNP’s election advertising.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Throughout the Queensland campaign, Campbell Newman parroted the word “strong” at every opportunity, using it as the backbone of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-early-election-hinges-on-a-test-of-newmans-strength-35893">LNP’s election strategy</a>, to the point where it became a joke.</p>
<p>Newman became the sole focus of the campaign, and his destiny became tied to the LNP’s. Many voters had already decided that they didn’t like Newman. As a result of the strategy, it was harder for them to like the Queensland LNP much either. </p>
<p>Having gone into this 2015 election holding 73 out of 89 seats in parliament, the LNP is now on the brink of <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-voters-send-a-strong-message-to-eject-newman-37018">losing government</a>. Not the strong performance they had been hoping for.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wqRVkJt5WCw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Queensland premier had a very strong key message for voters.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Federal fallout from the Queensland rout</h2>
<p>If the Queensland LNP’s federal Coalition counterparts weren’t aware of the trend against “Strong Leadership” before, they certainly are now.</p>
<p>Unnamed federal MPs are using the Queensland result to justify a push for Abbott to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/abbotts-popularity-plunge-puts-heat-on-coalition-mps-20150201-1337kt.html">consult much more widely</a>. The days of “the captain” choosing his team’s direction in isolation are behind him: his teammates are demanding a say.</p>
<p>In the meantime, speculation of a federal leadership challenge shows <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/warren-entsch-plans-resolution-of-tony-abbott-leadership-drama/6066842">little sign of dying down</a>.</p>
<p>Abbott’s prepared remarks to the National Press Club suggest he believes that his ingrained political instincts led him to the top job. It’s only when questioned that the prime minister’s spontaneous remarks indicated that he might be realising that what he once saw as an asset has become a dangerous weakness.</p>
<p>Abbott must navigate this contradiction to ensure that he is not only a “strong leader”, but a leader with the strength to do what he keeps promising: <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-moves-to-head-off-critics-20150202-13466k.html">to listen and learn</a> before he acts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Winther does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>* Updated Tuesday 11pm AEDT: A state premier gone, a chief minister fighting off a coup, and a prime minister struggling to avoid the others’ fate. Australian politics is suddenly all about consultative…Todd Winther, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370982015-02-03T03:51:22Z2015-02-03T03:51:22ZNT spill has local roots pre-dating any Queensland-induced panic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70890/original/image-20150203-9187-wj7dxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Willem Westra van Holthe (right) looks set to lead the Northern Territory following a late night leadership spill.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Jack Bullen</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Late on Monday night, part of the Northern Territory’s Country Liberal government’s parliamentary wing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/adam-giles-replaced-as-northern-territory-chief-minister/6064564">overthrew</a> the chief minister, Adam Giles. At 1am, somewhat surprisingly, Primary Industries Minister Willem Westra van Holthe emerged as the new chief minister.</p>
<p>However, on Tuesday morning Giles was refusing to formally resign his post, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/nt-chief-minister-giles-refuses-to-quit-after-leadership-coup/6065200">leading</a> to a delay in Westra van Holthe being sworn in.</p>
<p>At first glance, Giles’ ouster was a move that indicated panic caused by last weekend’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-on-the-brink-of-a-shock-election-win-in-queensland-36983">electoral backlash</a> against the Queensland Liberal National government. The Giles government was unpopular in the electorate for its <a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/northern_territory_budget_deficit_7g5LehG6XkuAwCsJv1OIBO">budget cuts</a> and privatisation of the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-12/entsch-warning-on-tio-sale/5885138">Territory Insurance Office</a>. </p>
<p>In December 2014, Giles <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-12/tollner-misses-out-in-nt-ministerial-reshuffle/5964028">reshuffled his cabinet</a> – a move interpreted as shoring up his position and rewarding his supporters. That Giles was unable to bring his mate and former treasurer Dave Tollner back into cabinet revealed that his “arrogance” was severely limited. Tollner <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-22/nt-deputy-leader-dave-tollner-resigns-over-gay-slur-comments/5690686">resigned</a> in August 2014 because of a public homophobic rant against a government ministerial staffer.</p>
<p>It is easy to assume that the change of leader was an effort by the CLP MPs to avoid a similar electoral backlash to that suffered by their confreres in Queensland. That will be the national interpretation of events.</p>
<p>However, NT politics is intensely local. It is to local factors that we must turn to explain the result, if not the timing, of Giles’ overthrow. Queensland provided the spark but the tinder had been smouldering for some time.</p>
<p>We must remember that Giles <a href="https://theconversation.com/darwinian-politics-its-survival-of-the-fittest-for-the-top-job-in-the-territory-12810">overthrew</a> the previous chief minister, Terry Mills, only six months after Mills had <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-the-nt-election-outcome-a-shockwave-or-a-regional-ripple-9138">returned the CLP to government</a> following a decade of Labor rule. So the example was set.</p>
<p>The vital clue lies in the claim that Giles was arrogant and his office too powerful. This is not an unusual criticism of forceful leaders or their private offices – just <a href="http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/2199772/does-peta-credlin-wield-too-much-power/">look at Canberra</a> – but in the NT it has consequences. </p>
<p>For example, Giles and his office were <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2015/s4172864.htm">accused</a> of interfering in ministers’ portfolios. Normally that means nothing worse than bruised ministerial egos. However, most NT ministers are close to their departments, so significant sections of the public service were alienated both by this and by previous budget cuts. </p>
<p>This has electoral spin-offs. About <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/2f762f95845417aeca25706c00834efa/4e5ab048dbbe8203ca2570ec001971cb!OpenDocument">one-fifth</a> of the electorate are NT public servants. They constitute the most important electoral bloc in the NT. This factor is the genesis of the claims that Giles was arrogant.</p>
<p>One of the most prominent <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/chief-minister-adam-giles-returns-from-holidays-early-to-discuss-inquiry-into-former-police-commissioner-john-mcroberts-conduct/story-fnk0b1zt-1227194892958">recent criticisms</a> of Giles was that he went on holidays amid a crisis surrounding Police Commissioner <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-14/police-commissioner-john-mcroberts-resigns-formal-investigation/6017466">John McRoberts</a>. McRoberts was accused of interfering in a police investigation of a travel agent who had allegedly rorted a travel scheme that gives NT seniors a free airfare to southern cities every two years. He resigned his post last month.</p>
<p>The NT’s localism was on full display as the case evolved. The travel agent was supposedly in an informal intimate relationship with McRoberts. It was further illustrated when various statutory officers who would normally have conducted the investigation into McRoberts’ conduct had to rule themselves out because they either lived with one of the protagonists or were friends with them. </p>
<p>Media leaks from within the police force gave the saga continued prominence. McRoberts (a “southerner”) was unpopular within the police force, which was generally unhappy when Giles <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/police-commissioner-john-mcroberts-has-contract-renewed-for-five-years/story-fnk0b1zt-1226928420855">re-appointed him</a> in May 2014 for a further five-year term. The police wanted a local to be police commissioner, again reinforcing the NT’s localist politics.</p>
<p>By coincidence, both Westra van Holthe and his deputy, John Elferink, are former police officers. They were probably well – if informally – briefed about the ongoing McRoberts affair.</p>
<p>The national press may make something of Giles being Indigenous but this was not a factor. Giles is from the ACT and not an Indigenous Territorian. One of his first acts as chief minister was to <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/04/03/adam-giles-pie-in-the-sky-indigenous-jobs-plan/">abolish</a> the Indigenous Affairs portfolio. He <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2013/s3716120.htm">claimed</a> that because 30% of Northern Territorians are Indigenous, all ministers should be focused on Indigenous affairs. </p>
<p>Alison Anderson led a <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/alison-anderson-larisa-lee-and-francis-xavier-have-quit-the-country-liberal-party/story-fnk0b1zt-1226873268746">walk-out</a> of Aboriginal MPs from the CLP shortly after Giles became chief minister. Anderson and fellow Indigenous MP Larisa Lee have <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/alison-anderson-and-larisa-lee-rejoin-clp-amid-leadership-turmoil/story-fnk0b1zt-1227206076554">rejoined the CLP</a> in the wake of Giles’ removal. Giles had limited Aboriginal support and his overthrow was a Darwin event. Aboriginal interests were not a factor.</p>
<p>The NT’s localism has not yet finished playing out, with the Alice Springs branch of the CLP apparently outraged at Giles’ ouster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37098/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rolf Gerritsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Late on Monday night, part of the Northern Territory’s Country Liberal government’s parliamentary wing overthrew the chief minister, Adam Giles. At 1am, somewhat surprisingly, Primary Industries Minister…Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/128462013-03-15T04:03:09Z2013-03-15T04:03:09ZWho’s the Premier? Who cares?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21298/original/p6b6th42-1363308575.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Does anyone care that Denis Napthine is Victoria's new premier?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last Thursday, Victorians awoke to the news that they had a new Premier. Ted Baillieu did not survive four days of rolling scandal which began with the release by the Herald Sun of four hours of taped conversations between key Liberal and National Party players and ended with the resignation from the Liberal Party of Geoff Shaw, Member for Frankston, leaving the government one short of an absolute majority of the lower House.</p>
<p>Most Victorians reacted to the news by shrugging their shoulders and getting on with things. There was none of the anger and panic which accompanied Kevin Rudd’s replacement by prime minister Julia Gillard. Very quickly, the news was displaced in Victoria by coverage of the trial of Jill Meagher’s alleged killer and by the election of a new Catholic Pope. </p>
<p>Victorians don’t really know why Baillieu “resigned”, but nor are they clamouring for answers. What Julia Gillard would have given for that kind of apathy in 2010.</p>
<p>Then on Wednesday this week, the Chief Minister of the Northern Territory, Terry Mills, was rolled in a good old fashioned coup. Like the leadership spills of old, this was a while coming. </p>
<p>In February the Attorney-General, John Elferink, had signalled his intention to challenge for the leadership, but in the end couldn’t muster the numbers. Weeks later, Health and Housing Minister Dave Tollner did force a spill, but ended up being forced out of Cabinet himself. Barely a week after that, Tollner and Adam Giles conspired to organise a coup while Mills was in Japan on a trade mission. </p>
<p>Mills was chief minister for barely six and a half months.</p>
<h2>Catch Labor’s disease</h2>
<p>Obviously, each leadership change had its own trajectory, and the fact that they occurred within a week of each other is largely coincidence. But there are wider implications. One is that the so-called “New South Wales disease” – a shorthand reference to the factional infighting that saw New South Wales Labor cycle through four Premiers (Bob Carr, Morris Iemma, Nathan Rees and Kristina Keneally) before finally losing office in March 2011 – is not limited to the Labor party.</p>
<p>History tells us that governing parties of both persuasions have swapped leaders quite often, especially when in power for extended periods of time, and so the identification of leadership coups with the Labor brand is a distortion. </p>
<p>The association of government leadership coups to Labor in recent times is due, in large part, to the fact that Labor has dominated the government benches in the states and territories during the past fifteen years. </p>
<p>In the decade from 2001 the party so dominated state and territory politics that, outside Western Australia, only in 2001 in South Australia and in 2010 in Victoria was Labor not in government. By definition, any changes of premier or chief minister between elections were changes of Labor premiers or chief ministers.</p>
<h2>Market-driven politics</h2>
<p>George Megalogenis makes a deeper analysis. He suggests that political leadership changes in Australia since about 1992 have been functions of two trends: the domination of political polling; and a general malaise in Australian political leadership. </p>
<p>It was in 1992 that Newspoll went fortnightly instead of monthly. Megalogenis argues that since then, politics is driven more and more by the practices of marketing than by more traditional methods of policy and persuasion. The prime example he gives was Rudd’s decision to drop his emissions trading scheme – his proposed solution to “the greatest moral challenge of our time” – after he was told of bad reactions to it in focus groups dominated by politically disengaged voters. </p>
<p>The recent trend for first-term leaders to be torn down by their party rooms is something we haven’t seen since the 1920s and 1930s in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia.</p>
<p>Related to this kind of market-driven politics is what Megalogenis identifies as the generally sub-standard level of political leadership across Australia. Unprepared politically or philosophically to pursue long-term reform in this era of poll-driven 24-hour news cycles, he argues, leaders seek election on short-term populist rhetoric and then opt out when the going gets too tough. Leaders who adhere themselves publicly to political philosophies which go beyond vague statements (like Gillard’s proclaimed belief in the importance of “education”) are, it seems, relics of the past, so when the polls go south they have no substance to ground themselves in.</p>
<h2>States in play</h2>
<p>A third important factor is at play in state and territory politics – the perception of the relevance (or otherwise) of state politics. The prime minister <a href="http://www.lgnews.com.au/the-thoughts-pm-gillard/#.UUJopTzlzB8">said in January</a> that if the Constitution were being drafted today, the states would be left out. </p>
<p>That tier of government is indeed in a curious malaise. A century of High Court decisions and the GST have centralised taxation powers in the Commonwealth government and left the states increasingly reliant on dubious means of raising their own revenue, such as taxes on gambling and cigarettes, and on tied grants from the Commonwealth. </p>
<p>State governments seem unable to cope effectively with those service areas the Constitutional drafters assigned to them, such as education and health, and too often the state governments seem little more than the facilitators of miners’ and developers’ aspirations. More and more, state and territory governments imagine their role as mere managers, and political leaders as Chief Executive Officers who sink or swim on the share price and the profit-and-loss statement. The tenure of managerialist “leaders” is necessarily short and they are rarely missed.</p>
<p>Megalogenis says he’s waiting for someone to come along and change the whole conversation, perhaps by injecting some philosophical passion into the motherhood managerialism of the current crop of political leaders. </p>
<p>But it’s unlikely that this person will come through state politics. It may be that the lack of public concern about the replacements of sitting government leaders by their parties is a sign of a better acceptance of Westminster traditions than was observed during the Rudd-Gillard swap. But perhaps the most significant message from the twin coups in Victoria and the Northern Territory is that for voters, state and territory politics matter less than ever.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Russell Marks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Last Thursday, Victorians awoke to the news that they had a new Premier. Ted Baillieu did not survive four days of rolling scandal which began with the release by the Herald Sun of four hours of taped…Russell Marks, Honorary Research Associate, School of Social Sciences, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/128102013-03-14T01:49:53Z2013-03-14T01:49:53ZDarwinian politics: it’s survival of the fittest for the top job in the Territory<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21247/original/n9srzn9c-1363218656.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Terry Mills has been ousted as Chief Minister of the Northern Territory by Adam Giles.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s a fact up north that our governments habitually overthrow their Chief Ministers. By my estimation, five of the nine (now 10) Chief Ministers have been ousted by their party colleagues rather than the electorate since 1978. So the dramatic overthrow of Terry Mills, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/nt-chief-minister-terry-mills-dumped-as-leader-by-phone-report/story-e6frgczx-1226596593915">who was in Japan</a> (trying fruitlessly to get gas from Inpex to replace the gas he had given away to Rio Tinto) should have come as no surprise. </p>
<p>Yet of course it did. The successful coup was <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/northern/2013/03/14/how-adam-giles-and-his-mates-seized-power-in-the-nt/">leaked prematurely</a>, making the event seem more dramatic. This was no <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/victoria/2013/03/ted-baillieu-resigns-denis-napthine-is-victorias-new-premier.html">Baillieu giving way to Napthine</a>; in true Territory style this was conspiratorial and brutally effective.</p>
<p>And the new Chief Minister is a surprise. Adam Giles is the youngest Chief Minister since Paul Everingham in 1978. Southern observers and news outlets will celebrate Giles as the first Indigenous First Minister of any Australian jurisdiction. Yet he is not Chief Minister because he is Indigenous. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21248/original/w6xwgcsk-1363218869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21248/original/w6xwgcsk-1363218869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21248/original/w6xwgcsk-1363218869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21248/original/w6xwgcsk-1363218869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21248/original/w6xwgcsk-1363218869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21248/original/w6xwgcsk-1363218869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21248/original/w6xwgcsk-1363218869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adam Giles has taken over leadership of the CLP.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/NT Government</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With his four Indigenous colleagues in the NT Government his indigeneity cuts no ice, because Giles is a Koori immigrant to the NT. Giles is Chief Minister because his parliamentary colleagues, including the Indigenous ones, ultimately agreed that he was the only person that could rescue the floundering new CLP government, elected barely <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/clp-makes-inroads-in-early-count-in-northern-territory-election/story-fn59niix-1226458055375">seven months ago</a>.</p>
<p>Importantly, representing an Alice Springs electorate, Giles is the first Chief Minister from outside Darwin. Territorians will be more aware of that than of his indigeneity.</p>
<p>Terry Mills’ troubles began almost as soon as he became Chief Minister last August. He discovered that the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/labor-blamed-as-territory-faces-debt-burden-of-62bn/story-e6frgczx-1226508721716">NT level of public debt</a> (including contingent liabilities) was much higher than he anticipated. This was not the usual “shock- horror, budget black hole” manoeuvre, pioneered by the inimitable Neville Wran in 1976 and faithfully copied by almost every in-coming election winner since. </p>
<p>It was a fact, a fact that had been created by the ousted Labor Government’s willingness to postpone hard decisions until after the last election.</p>
<p>This point is best exemplified by the case of the power and water <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2012/11/20/315263_ntnews.html">charge increases</a> that Mills implemented. This issue became emblematic in his overthrow.</p>
<p>The previous government had used the government-owned Power and Water Corporation (PWC) for political ends. From 2006 it made the PWC pay for the undergrounding of power lines in the northern suburbs of Darwin (supposedly for cyclone safety reasons but coincidentally increasing property values and votes for the former government). The PWC had not been allowed to increase its charges commensurate with its capital renewal and repairs and maintenance needs. </p>
<p>The new CLP government had to rectify the situation. It chose to inflict the pain in a single dose, rejecting the option of graduated electricity price rises over a number of years. This was a political judgement that it was better to wear the odium immediately and hope the electorate would forget by the next election. It was a rational strategy but Mills failed to manage the storm. His school-masterly demeanour was not the medium to convince Territorians that they should pay very much more for electricity. The main Territory newspaper, Murdoch’s NT News, ran <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2013/02/26/318007_ntnews.html">an aggressive populist campaign</a> against the government.
Like Baillieu, Mills failed as a political communicator. </p>
<p>Still, after only a few months in the job, Mills would have been forgiven for not seeing this coming. His position within the government seemed unassailable. He enjoyed the support of the four new Indigenous MLAs. His three putative challengers – Giles, <a href="http://www.countryliberals.org.au/members.php?id=6">David Tollner</a> and <a href="http://www.countryliberals.org.au/members.php?id=9">John Elferink</a> – neutralised each other. Although electorally unpopular, Mills seemed safe until these three egos could decide who would take a run at the top spot.</p>
<p>But Mills made several key political mistakes. First his Deputy and Treasurer, <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2013/03/07/318313_ntnews.html">Robyn Lambley</a>, was pushed out, seeming to take the blame for cost cutting and power charges. At a stroke the powerful Alice Springs branch of the CLP was alienated and its three MPs withdrew their support for Mills. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21249/original/hv7dh8d4-1363219553.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21249/original/hv7dh8d4-1363219553.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21249/original/hv7dh8d4-1363219553.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21249/original/hv7dh8d4-1363219553.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21249/original/hv7dh8d4-1363219553.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1149&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21249/original/hv7dh8d4-1363219553.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1149&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21249/original/hv7dh8d4-1363219553.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1149&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alison Anderson, a key figure in Northern Territory politics, recently called Adam Giles a “little boy” and “spoiled brat”.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Second, Mills assumed that the Indigenous MLAs were his supporters. That was true for the first Giles challenge in the party room meeting last week. But it changed this week. Last week Mills appointed two of the four Indigenous MLAs as <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2013/03/12/318445_ntnews.html">Parliamentary Secretaries</a>. On the surface this seemed to confirm his permanence, but to this observer it seemed an odd indication of his dependence rather than leadership. </p>
<p>In the end it was two behind-the-scenes developments late last week sealed that Mills’ fate. Tollner agreed to defer to Giles for the leadership (Elferink was by now irrelevant, canvassing for votes for a challenge two weeks ago he discovered he had only one, his own). And Alison Anderson the <em>primus inter pares</em> of the Indigenous MLAs, reached a rapprochement with Giles. </p>
<p>Anderson is easily the most formidable and strategic politician in the Territory. After last week’s party meeting she publicly castigated Giles as a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/nt-coup-ends-with-spoilt-brat-on-top-20130313-2g0sk.html">“little boy”</a> for his challenge. So we can only speculate on the subsequent conversation that secured Giles the “bush” members’ votes and so the Chief Ministership. </p>
<p>There was no one reason the Northern Territory lost its Chief Minister just six months into his tenure. Rather, like his colleague Baillieu in the south, Terry Mills had simply outstayed his welcome with a restless party, and lost the support of the public. </p>
<p>The ousting may have seemed dramatic, but in the end, it was just another day in Territory politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12810/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rolf Gerritsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s a fact up north that our governments habitually overthrow their Chief Ministers. By my estimation, five of the nine (now 10) Chief Ministers have been ousted by their party colleagues rather than…Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.