tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/atmospheric-pollution-27645/articlesatmospheric pollution – The Conversation2021-11-12T10:33:49Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1708852021-11-12T10:33:49Z2021-11-12T10:33:49ZSix areas where action must focus to rescue this planet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431653/original/file-20211112-25-16gi94.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sandstorm approaching Merzouga Settlement in Erg Chebbi Desert, Morocco.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pavliha/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For some time, the Earth’s natural resources have been depleted faster than they can be replaced. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has set a 2030 <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/">deadline</a> to reduce heat-trapping emissions by half to avoid climate change that is both irreversible and destructive. </p>
<p>With colleagues, we coauthored a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/70/1/8/5610806">climate emergency warning paper</a> in 2019. It has now been co-signed by 14,594 scientists from 158 countries. We also produced <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/70/6/446/5828583?login=true">an extension</a> in 2020 and a <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-climate-emergency-2020-in-review/">grim update</a> in 2021. Our warnings are supported by thousands of research studies, many referenced in the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> papers.</p>
<p>In our new <a href="https://www.scientistswarningeurope.org.uk/">paper</a>, we move beyond warnings and call for concrete actions. These must happen in six areas, at six levels – from household to community, city, state, nation and global – and on three timescales.</p>
<p>In the next three decades, the world must dramatically decrease greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to return to a more stable climate. To do this, we identify priority actions for energy, pollutants, nature, food, population and economy. </p>
<p>This takes place on three timescales – by 2026, 2030, and 2050. By 2050, carbon dioxide emissions must not exceed removals. After that, we must lower atmospheric concentrations by taking enough carbon out of the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Our paper, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00368504211056290">summarised here</a>, is intended to guide society, decision makers, planners, managers and financial investors with a framework for action. Yet humanity’s biggest challenges are not technical, but social, economic, political and behavioural. </p>
<h2>Energy: less, cleaner, more with less</h2>
<p>It is essential to reduce demand for energy by increasing energy productivity. That means getting more energy services – heating, cooling, lighting, transport, electricity and mechanical work – out of less primary energy. Fossil fuels are the largest sources of heat-trapping carbon dioxide and methane, and must be replaced. Our paper recommends the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Follow much more ambitious road-maps for energy transformation to halve carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.</p></li>
<li><p>Create economic incentives to provide <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629617300518">energy services</a> with less primary energy.</p></li>
<li><p>Replace primary energy from coal, oil, natural gas and wood with solar, wind, geothermal, tidal and hydro energy, wherever ecologically appropriate.</p></li>
<li><p>Account for all emissions and black carbon (soot) from burning bioenergy.</p></li>
<li><p>Levy high carbon prices on air travel, inefficient vehicles, appliances, buildings and carbon intensive goods.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Pollutants: reduce and remove</h2>
<p>Methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, black carbon and other atmospheric pollutants add directly to global heating. Our warming world is melting permafrost, releasing heat-trapping methane. Policies must:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Rapidly reduce methane emissions from agriculture, industry, and oil and gas production.</p></li>
<li><p>Develop effective atmospheric methane removal practices. </p></li>
<li><p>Require large methane producers to pay for atmospheric removal. </p></li>
<li><p>Reduce methane, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons that produce heat-trapping pollutants. </p></li>
<li><p>Reduce emissions of hydrofluorocarbons from refrigerants, solvents and other sources. </p></li>
<li><p>Reduce nitrous oxide emissions from fertilisers, fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Natural climate solutions</h2>
<p>Biodiverse natural ecosystems, including forests, wetlands, grasslands, peatlands and oceans, are essential for our planet to function. This includes carbon management. They remove and store 56% of annual <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">carbon emissions</a>, preventing additional warming. </p>
<p>Society needs to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Protect carbon dense ecosystems to cover 30% of the Earth’s surface by 2030 and remove all emitted carbon dioxide by 2050.</p></li>
<li><p>Halt destruction of these essential systems. </p></li>
<li><p>Restore degraded ecosystems.</p></li>
<li><p>Greatly reduce land conversions by 2026 and halt them by 2030.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Food system reform</h2>
<p>Agricultural production is failing to sustain Earth’s nearly 8 billion people without unacceptable damage to climate, land and water. The global food system generates <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6392/987">more than 25%</a> of greenhouse gas emissions and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252">consumes 70%</a> of freshwater. Expanding inefficient agriculture causes deforestation and nutrient runoff. It creates coastal low oxygen dead zones. To avoid widespread famines this century, leaders and farmers must:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Shift production to foods that use land and water more efficiently.</p></li>
<li><p>Use farming methods that regenerate the environment and store carbon in soils.</p></li>
<li><p>Support farmers in these transitions, especially small farmers.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Population stability</h2>
<p>Population growth undermines efforts to protect nature and people. Leaders and civil society should:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Embed population actions in economic, social and political agendas.</p></li>
<li><p>Invest more in family well-being through health, education and economic policies. </p></li>
<li><p>Support poorer families to advance economically and educationally.</p></li>
<li><p>Protect everyone’s right to life purposes other than parenting.</p></li>
<li><p>Increase aid for family planning.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Economic reform</h2>
<p>Economies must operate within <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855">planetary boundaries</a>. Leaders need to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Correct market failures through appropriate taxes, subsidies and regulations. </p></li>
<li><p>Create economic frameworks for profitable activities that protect and restore nature. </p></li>
<li><p>Introduce reforms to sustain farm and forest lands, oceans, rivers and wetlands. </p></li>
<li><p>Introduce land rights and urban planning models that encourage efficient land use. </p></li>
<li><p>Develop economic policies that halt loss of wild lands. </p></li>
<li><p>Introduce policies to reduce climate altering emissions and restore socially efficient local production.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>We must accelerate these transformations, while maintaining social, economic and political stability. Effective and timely actions are still possible on many, but not all fronts. Avoiding each tenth of a degree increase in global temperature improves the lives of billions of people, thousands of species and ecosystems.</p>
<p>Humanity can choose cooperation, wisdom, innovation, and ethics – or not. People can learn from past mistakes and create better societies. Leaders’ main challenge in the next decade may be to hold the rudder steady as society transforms on an almost impossible timescale. Our actions, or inaction, will determine whether we meet the challenges of the coming decades, and persist as civilised societies. </p>
<p><em>Our paper is open <a href="https://www.scientistswarningeurope.org.uk">here</a> for signature by anyone with a degree in natural, political, social, health, educational, behavioural or other science.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170885/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phoebe Barnard receives funding from Automated Visual Inspections and has received grants from the South African National Research Foundation, University of Cape Town, the Royal Society, and Leverhulme Trust. She is a board member of Scientists Warning Europe, Merz Institute, and Transition Fidalgo, and a member of the Union of Concerned Scientists, Society for Conservation Biology and American Society of Adaptation Professionals. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Moomaw receives funding from Rockefeller Brothers' Fund. He is affiliated with Woodwell Climate Research Center, The Climate Group, The Nature Conservancy, Union of Concerned Scientists, Young Voices for the Planet</span></em></p>Humanity’s biggest challenges are not technical, but social, economic, political and behavioural. Effective actions are still possible to stabilise the climate and the planet, but must be taken now.Phoebe Barnard, CEO and Exec Director, Stable Planet Alliance; Affiliate Full Professor, University of Washington; Research Associate, African Climate and Development Initiative and FitzPatrick Institute, University of Cape TownWilliam Moomaw, Professor Emeritus of International Environmental Policy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1668362021-09-06T10:27:18Z2021-09-06T10:27:18ZDung beetle experiment suggests carbon dioxide is bad for insects too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419062/original/file-20210902-15-1gj4xku.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dung beetles</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marcus Byrne</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Insects are a vital cog in the great wheel of nature. They outnumber humans a billion to one and make up more than <a href="https://youtu.be/2ivZ6GSaK1M">75% of animals on earth</a>. It’s no wonder that they are the primary providers of essential ecosystem services such as pollination and waste recycling. </p>
<p>But, by many accounts, their numbers are falling in what has been called an “<a href="https://theconversation.com/weaving-insect-wildlife-back-into-the-tapestry-of-life-132535">insect apocalypse</a>”. It’s not clear yet what mechanism – if there is only one – is responsible for reports of plummeting insect numbers. <a href="https://theconversation.com/skyglow-forces-dung-beetles-in-the-city-to-abandon-the-milky-way-as-their-compass-165110">Light pollution</a>, insecticide use, habitat loss and changing weather are all implicated, but these effects are patchy in terms of their occurrence across the planet. </p>
<p>Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO₂), however, <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/carbon-dioxide-levels-continue-record-levels-despite-covid-19-lockdown">is global</a>. It permeates every inch of our biosphere, including the soil. We wanted to know how that might be affecting insects, given that more than half of the known species of insects spend a substantial portion of their life cycle underground. This is where they are potentially under the influence of eCO₂. </p>
<p>For air breathing animals, increases in atmospheric CO₂ are trivial. For example, CO₂ levels in human lungs are <a href="https://ethanolrfa.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Module-2-Handout-How-Inhaled-CO2-Affects-the-Body-%E2%80%93-Fact-Sheet.pdf">100 times greater</a> than those in the air, and can be rapidly returned to atmospheric levels by hyperventilating, with no ill effects. Soil microbes, on the other hand, increase in biomass under eCO₂. This allows them to consume more organic material in the soil and compete with other organisms for oxygen. </p>
<p>Our latest research used dung beetles as a model “<a href="https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/canary+in+a+coal+mine">canary in the mine</a>” to test the effect of eCO₂ on soil-dwelling insects. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.15804">We found</a> that beetles exposed to eCO₂ emerged later and smaller, and had a reduced chance of making it to adulthood. This additional effect of eCO₂ on the biosphere adds to the growing list of problems caused by eCO₂ released from unfettered human activity.</p>
<h2>Creatures of the soil</h2>
<p>Dung beetles are creatures of the soil. There, they bury dung and recycle it by feeding on it, both as larvae and as adults. </p>
<p>As a representative of the numerous insect species living in the soil, dung beetles are an ideal organism on which to test the effects of eCO₂. We know that some dung dwelling beetles can tolerate extreme levels of CO₂, accompanied by low levels of O₂. These exposures are only for short periods (minutes to hours), such as those experienced when tunnelling through oxygen-depleted dung. </p>
<p>However, immature dung beetles developing inside their brood balls, buried deep in the soil, will be exposed to eCO₂ for weeks or even months.</p>
<p>Dung beetle larvae develop <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-dung-beetles-do-with-a-piece-of-poo-47367">inside a ball of dung</a>, where they eat the inner walls, digest the dung and defecate the remains back onto the wall, to be eaten again. Although scientists have some understanding of how adult dung beetles turn this low nutrient food source into a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/phen.12336">hearty meal</a>, it’s not clear how their larvae subsist on such unsavoury leftovers. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419065/original/file-20210902-15-my5fab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Beetle standing on its front legs, with its back legs on a ball of dung" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419065/original/file-20210902-15-my5fab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419065/original/file-20210902-15-my5fab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419065/original/file-20210902-15-my5fab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419065/original/file-20210902-15-my5fab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419065/original/file-20210902-15-my5fab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419065/original/file-20210902-15-my5fab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419065/original/file-20210902-15-my5fab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dung beetle rolling a food ball.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marcus Byrne</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unlike the adults, they consume all the big bits with the help of strong jaws, which the adults lack. Microbes, both within their gut and on the inner wall of the ball, probably assist in the breakdown of tough plant remains containing what would be otherwise undigestible lignin (the compound that makes plants woody) and cellulose. Microbes may even fix valuable nitrogen from the atmosphere, which would contribute to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/mec.13901">proteins in the growing larvae</a>.</p>
<p>Elevated CO₂ could be interfering with this symbiotic relationship in the dung ball, either by promoting the growth of unwanted microorganisms which consume what the dung beetle larva should be eating, or by changing the physical conditions inside the larval ball – or both. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yWt_8meQ20k?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Humans add more than <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/276629/global-co2-emissions/">35 billion metric tons of CO₂</a> to the atmosphere every year. This CO₂ is <a href="https://theconversation.com/deep-but-not-dead-how-tropical-subsoil-microbes-could-affect-the-carbon-cycle-35295">stimulating microbial activity in the soil</a>, which we think leads to a contest for food and oxygen with developing insects, while altering their underground habitat. </p>
<h2>Experiments</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.15804">our study</a> we reared dung beetles in walk-in chambers, where we could set all the climatic parameters, including levels of CO₂. This allowed us to go back into the past, before industry had changed our atmosphere, and to project into the future humans are creating if we continue our current carbon emissions. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418910/original/file-20210901-21-ug8kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two beetles" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418910/original/file-20210901-21-ug8kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418910/original/file-20210901-21-ug8kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418910/original/file-20210901-21-ug8kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418910/original/file-20210901-21-ug8kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418910/original/file-20210901-21-ug8kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418910/original/file-20210901-21-ug8kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418910/original/file-20210901-21-ug8kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The dung beetles tested under eCO₂, <em>Euoniticellus intermedius</em>. Female (left), male (right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marcus Byrne</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We used pre-industrial <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide">levels</a> of CO₂ (250 parts per million, or ppm), current levels (400 ppm), and levels predicted by 2050 (600 ppm), and 2070 (800 ppm) in our experiments. Even the current eCO₂ reduced beetle size and slowed their development compared to their “pre-industrial” relatives. It appears therefore that the soil insects are already taking strain. </p>
<p>The balls in which the beetles were growing was changed by the atmosphere in the chambers. We noted an increase in brood ball pH (increased alkalinity), associated with eCO₂, along with 10 times eCO₂ in the ball in our most extreme treatment. </p>
<p>Many insects developing inside wet burrows or plant galls can tolerate 100 times greater CO₂ levels. This leads us to suspect microorganisms in the soil or the dung as the agents of change.</p>
<p>We now intend to turn our attention to the microbes in the soil and dung to pin down the precise cause of this effect. But whatever we discover in the future, clearly the best policy now is for humans to curtail our CO₂ output <a href="https://theconversation.com/infantile-climate-discussion-rages-while-the-atmosphere-chokes-557">sooner rather than later</a>. This will safeguard not only ourselves, but the little things that run our world, too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcus Byrne receives funding from The National Research Foundation, South Africa.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claudia Tocco does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Beetles exposed to elevated carbon dioxide emerged later and smaller and had a reduced chance of making it to adulthood.Marcus Byrne, Professor of Zoology and Entomology, University of the WitwatersrandClaudia Tocco, Postdoctoral fellow, Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1223882019-09-10T02:49:47Z2019-09-10T02:49:47ZWe built an app to detect areas most vulnerable to life-threatening haze<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291674/original/file-20190910-109943-1v3jwfz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Active fire hotspots detected by S-NPP/VIIRS on September 7 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Worldview</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Forest and land-use fires are ravaging Indonesia’s Sumatra and Kalimantan islands. Haze from these fires threatens lives as inhaling smoke can cause heart and respiratory diseases, leading to premature deaths.</p>
<p>We study the intersection of land use, fires and air pollution. Based on our latest <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GH000191">study</a>, smoke exposure would lead to about 36,000 premature deaths per year on average across Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia over the next few decades if current trends continue – that is, if no comprehensive land management strategies, such as peatland restoration, are undertaken. </p>
<p>To prevent premature deaths from toxic haze, we developed a new online tool to provide decision-makers with information to protect people living downwind from the fires.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-things-jokowi-could-do-better-to-stop-forest-fires-and-haze-in-indonesia-120497">Three things Jokowi could do better to stop forest fires and haze in Indonesia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Health impacts of smoke exposure</h2>
<p>Severe haze blankets Southeast Asia when three things happen:</p>
<ol>
<li>the dry season coincides with El Niño (or other drought-like conditions)</li>
<li>humans use fire to clear land or maintain agricultural areas</li>
<li>peatlands are so dry and degraded that they become abundant fuel for fire. </li>
</ol>
<p>Recent severe haze episodes occurred in 1997, 2006 and 2015. While the fire season varies in intensity from year to year, fires recur every year in Indonesia.</p>
<p>Smoke from fires increases hazy conditions. Tiny particles in haze pose health risks including stroke, cardiovascular disease, respiratory infection and even brain damage. </p>
<p>With limited firefighting resources, authorities need to identify priority areas to target conservation efforts to limit vulnerability to fire. Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GH000191">study</a> shows that one way to set priorities is to determine areas where the threat of smoke to human health is greatest. </p>
<p>Science-based evidence can do this by calculating the impact of haze on populations’ health burden. Populations that are downwind from fires are more prone to smoke exposure and resulting health problems.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-it-takes-to-put-out-forest-fires-122644">What it takes to put out forest fires</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We developed a scientific framework that incorporates satellite-derived data sets on land use, land cover and fire emissions, modelling of where smoke travels in the atmosphere, and health impacts from smoke exposure. </p>
<p>We also project future land use and land cover transitions for the next decade associated with a range of dry to wet conditions. Finally, we calculate the health impacts as a result of smoke exposure for Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia. </p>
<p>While our land use and fire data sets are spatially explicit, our estimates for health impacts are at country scale.</p>
<h2>SMOKE Policy Tool</h2>
<p>As part of our study, we created the <a href="https://smokepolicytool.users.earthengine.app/view/smoke-policy-tool">SMOKE Policy Tool</a>. This is an online application that tracks smoke and allows stakeholders to explore the health benefits of blocking fires in different regions and under various land management scenarios. Users can target one or a combination of concessions (oil palm, timber, logging), conservation areas, peatlands and individual provinces.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290843/original/file-20190904-175714-1ckvy8f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290843/original/file-20190904-175714-1ckvy8f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290843/original/file-20190904-175714-1ckvy8f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290843/original/file-20190904-175714-1ckvy8f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290843/original/file-20190904-175714-1ckvy8f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290843/original/file-20190904-175714-1ckvy8f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290843/original/file-20190904-175714-1ckvy8f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">User interface of the SMOKE Policy Tool.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The tool also estimates the number of premature deaths associated with exposure to haze. In the business-as-usual scenario over the coming decades, we estimate about 36,000 premature deaths per year across Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia.</p>
<p>In addition, we predict that fire-related PM2.5, the tiny particles in smoke, will reach 18-20 μg/m3 from July to October in Singapore and Indonesia. That level is nearly double the guidelines set by the World Health Organisation.</p>
<p>Estimates of public health impacts are likely to be conservative, based on our assumptions. For example, we did not consider the effects of climate change in making droughts worse, or take into account future shifts in human population.</p>
<p>However, because our scientific framework is flexible, we can incorporate updated information on fire emissions, land use, smoke exposure and population density as new datasets become available.</p>
<p>Future versions of the tool can incorporate near-real-time monitoring of fire emissions and health impacts analysis at sub-country scale.</p>
<h2>Keeping peatlands wet</h2>
<p>Most of the premature deaths due to haze in Indonesia can be avoided if the government succeeds in restoring the moist conditions in all peatlands in Sumatra and Kalimantan.</p>
<p>Our study finds that while peatlands comprise less than 20% of land area in Indonesia, peat fires contribute about two-thirds to overall fire emissions.</p>
<p>As part of the development of the SMOKE Policy Tool, we partnered with the Indonesian Peatland Restoration Agency, or BRG. Its task is to restore 2 million hectares of degraded peatlands. </p>
<p>With limited resources, the agency must set priorities for peatland restoration. Until now, the agency has determined priority sites based on the number of fire hotspots. </p>
<p>But, with the SMOKE Policy Tool, the agency could redefine its priority sites based instead on minimising the overall health burden in the Southeast Asia region. </p>
<p>Our tool shows that prioritising restoration activities along the eastern coast of South Sumatra would lead to the greatest health benefits for all three countries. Of secondary priority is the southern coast of West, Central and South Kalimantan. This is because fires on these peatlands are directly upwind of vulnerable populations.</p>
<p>Setting priority areas to fight fires in Indonesia is important for making the best use of limited resources. Future efforts can also apply the same capabilities to fires in other locations such as the Amazon rainforest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122388/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tianjia Liu receives funding from the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Miriam Marlier receives funding from the Winslow Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Buonocore receives funding from the High Tide Foundation, Harvard Solar Geoengineering Research Program, the Heinz Endowments, and the Barr Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Loretta Mickley receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth DeFries received funding from the Winslow Foundation. </span></em></p>We have developed an online tool to help authorities identify which areas they should focus on for reducing forest fires and haze in order to maximize overall health benefits.Tianjia Liu, PhD Candidate in Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard UniversityMiriam Marlier, Associate Physical Scientist, RAND Corporation; PRGS Faculty Member, Pardee RAND Graduate SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1197712019-07-03T11:00:00Z2019-07-03T11:00:00ZBlue ‘noctilucent’ clouds are appearing further south than ever seen before – and pollution may be a cause<p>Cloud watchers have recently been given <a href="https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/06/17/low-latitude-noctilucent-clouds/">record-breaking glimpses</a> of the rarest clouds in the skies. Stunning rippled blue clouds have been forming in the highest reaches of the atmosphere <a href="https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/06/23/extreme-noctilucent-clouds-over-europe/">over Europe</a> and <a href="https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/06/12/record-setting-noctilucent-clouds/">the USA</a>. These clouds are normally only seen around the poles, but this summer is set to be the best observing season in years – they have already been seen at the lowest latitudes ever recorded.</p>
<p>These clouds are called “noctilucent” or night-shining clouds, as we can only see them at dusk and dawn. They form extremely high up in the atmosphere, at about 80km (50 miles) above the Earth’s surface in a region called the mesosphere. This is about four <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/clouds/high-clouds/cirrus">times higher</a> than the highest clouds we normally see, the wispy cirrus clouds.</p>
<p>Because the air is so thin in this part of the atmosphere, it needs to be much colder than 0°C for water to freeze – <a href="https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/4/2601/2004/">-120°C in fact</a>. We only see air temperatures this low in the mesosphere around the North or South poles when it is summer.</p>
<p>This strangely means that the part of the atmosphere constantly in sunlight is actually the coldest point in the atmosphere. This is because in the mesosphere, air flows away from the pole where it is summer towards the <a href="https://progearthplanetsci.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40645-015-0035-8">one where it is winter</a>. This is replaced by air rising from lower in the atmosphere, which expands and cools, leading to the extremely low temperatures.</p>
<p>The water in noctilucent clouds is either transported up into the mesosphere from the lower atmosphere, or forms when methane in the mesosphere breaks down by absorbing the sun’s rays. But, for clouds to form, they also need some other kind of particles for the water to condense on to. In the lower atmosphere, these are normally aerosol particles from <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-clouds-form">dust, sand and salt</a>.</p>
<p>But in the mesosphere, the main source of these particles is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/003206338290126X">from meteors</a>. As these lumps of space debris burn up in the higher layers of the atmosphere, they can leave behind trails of meteor dust. And at cold enough temperatures the water in the mesosphere can condense on this dust and grow into clouds.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282263/original/file-20190702-126400-12eqa03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282263/original/file-20190702-126400-12eqa03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282263/original/file-20190702-126400-12eqa03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282263/original/file-20190702-126400-12eqa03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282263/original/file-20190702-126400-12eqa03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282263/original/file-20190702-126400-12eqa03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282263/original/file-20190702-126400-12eqa03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282263/original/file-20190702-126400-12eqa03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Noctilucent clouds over Rabka-Zdrój, Poland, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Noctilucent_clouds_over_Rabka-Zdroj_17.07.02B.jpg">Radoslaw Ziomber/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Noctilucent clouds are so faint that they are only visible to us when the rest of the atmosphere is in darkness. This happens when the sun is below the horizon and, like a spotlight pointing upwards, illuminates only the higher regions of the atmosphere from below. The light that bounces off these clouds passes through the ozone layer before it gets to our eyes. Ozone absorbs red light and allows blue light to pass through, which is why these clouds take on a striking blue colour.</p>
<p>Noctilucent clouds can also show us how the atmosphere flows at the edge of space. The ripples seen in these clouds are from <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_484.html">atmospheric gravity waves</a>. These are just like waves on the surface of the ocean, but travel through the air. They form when air blows over mountains or in thunderstorms, and can travel all the way into the highest points in the atmosphere. Even though the air may look still in the mesosphere, these waves completely <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SqMCIKV364">dominate the flow,</a> and we can see these otherwise invisible waves in noctilucent clouds.</p>
<h2>What’s causing the record-breaking clouds?</h2>
<p>The lowest latitude at which noctilucent clouds are seen each year has been moving gradually south every year <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013JD021017">since at least 2002</a>. And in June 2019 the record was broken for the lowest point we have ever seen these clouds when they appeared not far from <a href="https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/06/17/low-latitude-noctilucent-clouds/">Los Angeles</a>. This was because the mesosphere was <a href="https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/06/19/mysterious-moisture-in-the-mesosphere/">strangely wet</a>, containing much more water than we usually see. This could be because a <a href="https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/06/19/mysterious-moisture-in-the-mesosphere/">giant planetary wave</a> was transporting cold air and moisture into the North Pole.</p>
<p>We are also in a deep solar minimum, the period of the sun’s 11-year cycle when it is least active. That means the ultraviolet radiation from the sun that usually destroys the water modules which form these clouds is <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/90JD02312">less intense</a>, so more of them can form.</p>
<p><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL077719">Human emissions could also be a factor</a>. Over the past 130 years we have released more and more methane into the atmosphere, which means that more water modules are produced in the mesosphere. These clouds were once a rare sight for humans of the past to observe, first recorded only after the 1883 <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/19feb_nlc/">eruption of Krakatoa</a> spewed an incredible amount of dust into the atmosphere. But since then they have become a more and more common sight.</p>
<p>So next time you’re out after dark, look up. You might just see the rarest clouds in the sky.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119771/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Perrett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>‘Night-shining’ clouds normally found above the poles have now been seen as far south as Los Angeles.Jon Perrett, PhD Candidate in Atmospheric Dynamics, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1030552018-09-12T13:26:39Z2018-09-12T13:26:39ZMethane is a potent pollutant – let’s keep it out of the atmosphere<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235889/original/file-20180911-144485-1tgqsbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=727%2C2005%2C6621%2C2897&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">robertwcoy/shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Trump administration wants to make it easier for the oil and gas sector to release methane into the air, according to a report in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/10/climate/methane-emissions-epa.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage">New York Times</a>. As atmospheric scientists, we are well aware of the dangers this poses for both global climate change and more localised air pollution.</p>
<p>Methane is already the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-2-5.html">second most abundant greenhouse gas</a> that is released from human activities. “Natural gas”, for instance, refers to a mixture dominated by methane. It has become steadily more concentrated in the air since the 18th century, more than doubling from around 750 parts per billion (ppb) to <a href="http://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/topic_observedchanges.php">more than 1,850 ppb today</a>. Like carbon dioxide, methane absorbs infrared radiation and warms the atmosphere. Although there is much less methane in the air than CO₂, the strength of that absorption is such that per molecule it is around 25-30 times more potent as a greenhouse gas.</p>
<p>It is a complicated gas to predict and manage since it is released from multiple sources. Some are natural processes, such as emissions from wetlands and bogs, methane that bubbles up through the ocean, or even through <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/301700a0">termite farts</a>. But many different human activities also result in methane being released. Flooded rice paddies produce lots of methane, as do cow and sheep stomachs, while the gas is also released from waste buried in landfills. </p>
<p>The largest anthropogenic source of methane, however, is the extraction and distribution of natural gas. According to the New York Times report, the US Environmental Protection Agency is set to relax a series of rules on methane emissions currently imposed on the US oil and gas industry, including a reduced frequency in checking for leaks and an extended grace period before repairs must be made. Such changes would add to a recent repeal of Obama-era US rules that required waste gas to be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/climate/trump-methane-rule-repeal.html">captured rather than vented or burned</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235890/original/file-20180911-144470-1xqdjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235890/original/file-20180911-144470-1xqdjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235890/original/file-20180911-144470-1xqdjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235890/original/file-20180911-144470-1xqdjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235890/original/file-20180911-144470-1xqdjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235890/original/file-20180911-144470-1xqdjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235890/original/file-20180911-144470-1xqdjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235890/original/file-20180911-144470-1xqdjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aliso Canyon gas storage facility in California, site of the largest methane leak in US history.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">trekandshoot/shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This comes at a time when America’s methane consumption is increasing, largely because the amount of natural gas (often from fracking) burnt to generate electricity nearly doubled <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/223042/us-natural-gas-consumption-by-sector/">between 2005 and 2015</a>. Global demand also continues to climb while oil and coal consumption have fallen <a href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf">over the past decade</a>.</p>
<h2>In search of methane</h2>
<p>Quantifying emissions of methane from the US oil and gas sector has been a topic of considerable <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-reduce-methane-emissions-from-the-oil-and-gas-industry-across-north-america-91635">research</a>. Oil and gas producers and distributors make estimates of their emissions based on complex calculations that account for amounts lost during activities such as drilling, venting and flaring, plus any gas that seeps out from the millions of joints, pipes and connectors that make up the natural gas network. These estimates are then supplemented by in-field tests, spot-checking and monitoring for emissions near the source. </p>
<p>Scientists have also measured plumes of natural gas as they waft away from oil and gas installations using aircraft, and have detected methane over large areas from satellites. In general, these sorts of research methods have shown <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/06/natural-gas-could-warm-planet-much-coal-short-term">more methane is being emitted</a> than industry-reported figures.</p>
<p>Recent increases in emissions arising from US natural gas extraction have been detected far from their sources, inferred from trends in other trace gases. Natural gas is not pure methane – it also contains small amounts of other hydrocarbons, such as ethane or propane. However, unlike methane, these gases have relatively few other anthropogenic sources, so act as excellent tracers of methane from the fossil fuel industry. Observatories as remote as Cape Verde in the tropical North Atlantic or the Jungfraujoch high in the Swiss alps detected an upwards trends in ethane that coincided with the US fracked gas boom, a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2721?WT.feed_name=subjects_publishing">smoking gun</a> that showed US emissions of methane were growing.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236001/original/file-20180912-133880-omh0nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236001/original/file-20180912-133880-omh0nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236001/original/file-20180912-133880-omh0nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236001/original/file-20180912-133880-omh0nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236001/original/file-20180912-133880-omh0nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236001/original/file-20180912-133880-omh0nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236001/original/file-20180912-133880-omh0nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236001/original/file-20180912-133880-omh0nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Sphinx Observatory on Jungfraujoch.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peter Stein / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Methane means more pollution</h2>
<p>Methane and the other hydrocarbons in natural gas, like ethane and propane, also create ozone pollution in the lower atmosphere when mixed with nitrogen oxides from combustion. Ozone harms people by causing the muscles in the airways to constrict, aggravating <a href="http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/air-pollution/ozone.html#howharms">lung diseases</a> such as asthma, emphysema and chronic bronchitis. It also limits plant growth and reduces <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231011000070">crop yields</a>. </p>
<p>High summertime ozone pollution events are an established phenomenon in southern US oil and gas producing regions, but they are now also found <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13767">during winter</a> in fracking locations in more northern states. While the current proposal for scaling back regulation of methane emissions has been framed, at least for now, as a roll-back of Obama-era climate policy, it has the potential to also increase concentrations of short-lived air pollutants as well. </p>
<p>The US has extensive regulations to control surface ozone pollution at national and state level. This pollution, particularly in <a href="https://www.nps.gov/subjects/air/class1.htm">national parks</a>, has historically been taken seriously. Any change in industrial policy that may increase the overall amount of natural gas released to air has the potential to lead to degradation in ozone air quality, both in the US and in regions downwind. The extent of the effects could only be calculated using complex atmospheric simulations, but if shown to be significant, any legal challenge to such a change could well be based on likely air quality effects rather than climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103055/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alastair Lewis receives funding for air pollution research from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Department for Food Agriculture and Rural Affairs (Defra), and the Department of Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucy Carpenter receives funding for atmospheric chemistry research and long term monitoring of atmospheric composition from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).</span></em></p>The US government is set to make it easier for oil and gas firms to leak methane into the atmosphere.Alastair Lewis, Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of YorkLucy Carpenter, Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/840512017-09-14T19:35:27Z2017-09-14T19:35:27ZAfter 30 years of the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer is gradually healing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185938/original/file-20170914-19479-zu6q9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Clouds over Australia's Davis Research Station, containing ice particles that activate ozone-depleting chemicals, triggering the annual ozone hole.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Barry Becker/BOM/AAD</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This weekend marks the 30th birthday of the <a href="http://ozone.unep.org/en/handbook-montreal-protocol-substances-deplete-ozone-layer/27571">Montreal Protocol</a>, often dubbed the world’s most successful environmental agreement. The treaty, signed on September 16, 1987, is slowly but surely reversing the damage caused to the ozone layer by industrial gases such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).</p>
<p>Each year, during the southern spring, a hole appears in the ozone layer above Antarctica. This is due to the extremely cold temperatures in the winter stratosphere (above 10km altitude) that allow byproducts of <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-ozone-depleting-substances-9203">CFCs</a> and related gases to be converted into forms that destroy ozone when the sunlight returns in spring. </p>
<p>As ozone-destroying gases are phased out, the annual ozone hole is generally getting smaller – a rare success story for international environmentalism.</p>
<p>Back in 2012, our <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/saving-the-ozone-3785">Saving the Ozone series</a> marked the Montreal Protocol’s silver jubilee and reflected on its success. But how has the ozone hole fared in the five years since?</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-antarctic-ozone-hole-and-how-is-it-made-9202">Explainer: what is the Antarctic ozone hole and how is it made?</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-antarctic-ozone-hole-and-how-is-it-made-9202">Antarctic ozone hole</a> has continued to appear each spring, as it has since the late 1970s. This is expected, as levels of the <a href="http://ozone.unep.org/en/handbook-montreal-protocol-substances-deplete-ozone-layer/2182">ozone-destroying halocarbon gases controlled by the Montreal Protocol</a> are still relatively high. The figure below shows that concentrations of these human-made substances over Antarctica have fallen by 14% since their peak in about 2000.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185927/original/file-20170913-19328-5n8tbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185927/original/file-20170913-19328-5n8tbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185927/original/file-20170913-19328-5n8tbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185927/original/file-20170913-19328-5n8tbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185927/original/file-20170913-19328-5n8tbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185927/original/file-20170913-19328-5n8tbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185927/original/file-20170913-19328-5n8tbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185927/original/file-20170913-19328-5n8tbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Past and predicted levels of controlled gases in the Antarctic atmosphere, quoted as equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) levels, a measure of their contribution to stratospheric ozone depletion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Krummel/CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It typically takes a few decades for these gases to cycle between the lower atmosphere and the stratosphere, and then ultimately to disappear. The most recent official assessment, <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/assessments/ozone/2014/">released in 2014</a>, predicted that it will take 30-40 years for the Antarctic ozone hole to <a href="https://theconversation.com/ozone-hole-closing-for-the-year-but-full-recovery-is-decades-away-33588">shrink to the size it was in 1980</a>.</p>
<h2>Signs of recovery</h2>
<p>Monitoring the ozone hole’s gradual recovery is made more complicated by variations in atmospheric temperatures and winds, and the amount of microscopic particles called aerosols in the stratosphere. In any given year these can make the ozone hole bigger or smaller than we might expect purely on the basis of halocarbon concentrations. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185937/original/file-20170914-19457-nh9mh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185937/original/file-20170914-19457-nh9mh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185937/original/file-20170914-19457-nh9mh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185937/original/file-20170914-19457-nh9mh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185937/original/file-20170914-19457-nh9mh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185937/original/file-20170914-19457-nh9mh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185937/original/file-20170914-19457-nh9mh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185937/original/file-20170914-19457-nh9mh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Launching an ozone-measuring balloon from Australia’s Davis Research Station in Antarctica.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Barry Becker/BOM/AAD</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 2014 assessment indicated that the size of the ozone hole varied more during the 2000s than during the 1990s. While this might suggest it has become harder to detect the healing effects of the Montreal Protocol, we can nevertheless tease out recent ozone trends with the help of <a href="http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/ccmi/">sophisticated atmospheric chemistry models</a>. </p>
<p>Reassuringly, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/shrinking-hole-in-the-ozone-layer-shows-what-collective-action-can-achieve-62007">recent study</a> showed that the size of the ozone hole each September has shrunk overall since the turn of the century, and that more than half of this shrinking trend is consistent with reductions in ozone-depleting substances. However, <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v549/n7671/full/nature23681.html">another study</a> warns that careful analysis is needed to account for a variety of natural factors that could confound our detection of ozone recovery.</p>
<h2>The 2015 volcano</h2>
<p>One such factor is the presence of ozone-destroying volcanic dust in the stratosphere. Chile’s Calbuco volcano seems to have played a role in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071925/abstract">enhancing the size of the ozone hole in 2015</a>.</p>
<p>At its maximum size, the 2015 hole was the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/bde22641-eeb6-4502-9c54-8239c2c64c0f/files/2015-ozone-summary-report.pdf">fourth-largest ever observed</a>. It was in the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/protection/ozone/publications/antarctic-ozone-hole-summary-reports">top 15% in terms of the total amount of ozone destroyed</a>. Only 2006, 1998, 2001 and 1999 had more ozone destruction, whereas other recent years (2013, 2014 and 2016) ranked near the middle of the observed range.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185928/original/file-20170913-19318-h6yofi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185928/original/file-20170913-19318-h6yofi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185928/original/file-20170913-19318-h6yofi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185928/original/file-20170913-19318-h6yofi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185928/original/file-20170913-19318-h6yofi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185928/original/file-20170913-19318-h6yofi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185928/original/file-20170913-19318-h6yofi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185928/original/file-20170913-19318-h6yofi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Average ozone concentrations over the southern hemisphere during October 1-15, 2015, when the Antarctic ozone hole for that year was near its maximum extent. The red line shows the boundary of the ozone hole.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Krummel/CSIRO/EOS</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another notable feature of the 2015 ozone hole was that it was at its biggest observed extent for much of the period from mid-October to mid-December. This coincided with a period during which the jet of westerly winds in the Antarctic stratosphere was particularly unaffected by the warmer, more ozone-rich air at lower latitudes. In a typical year, the influx of air from lower latitudes helps to limit the size of the ozone hole in spring and early summer.</p>
<h2>The 2017 hole</h2>
<p>As noted above, the ozone holes of 2013, 2014 and 2016 were relatively unremarkable compared with that of 2015, being close to the long-term average for overall ozone loss.</p>
<p>In general respects, these ozone holes were similar to those seen in the late 1980s and early 1990s, before the peak of ozone depletion. This is consistent with a gradual recovery of the ozone layer as levels of ozone-depleting substances gradually decline.</p>
<p>This year’s hole began to form in early August, and the timing was similar to the long-term average. Stratospheric temperatures during the Antarctic winter were slightly cooler than in 2016, which would favour enhancement of the chemical changes that lead to ozone destruction in spring. However, temperatures climbed above average in mid-August during a disturbance to the polar winds, delaying the hole’s expansion. As of the second week of September, the warmer-than-average temperatures have continued but the ozone hole has grown <a href="https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/">slightly larger than the long-term average since 1979</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/saving-the-ozone-layer-why-the-montreal-protocol-worked-9249">Saving the ozone layer: why the Montreal Protocol worked</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While annual monitoring continues, which includes measurements under the Australian Antarctic Program, a more comprehensive assessment of the ozone layer’s prospects is set to arrive late next year. Scientists across the globe, coordinated by the UN Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organisation, are busy preparing the next report required under the Montreal Protocol, called the <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/assessments/ozone/2018/">Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2018</a>. </p>
<p>This peer-reviewed report will examine the recent state of the ozone layer and the atmospheric concentration of ozone-depleting chemicals, how the ozone layer is projected to change, and links between ozone change and climate. </p>
<p>In the meantime we’ll <a href="http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ozone/">watch the 2017 hole</a> as it peaks then shrinks over the remainder of the year, as well as the ozone holes of future years, which will tend to grow less and less large as the ozone layer heals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84051/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Klekociuk is employed by the Australian Antarctic Division and is funded by the Department of the Environment and Energy of the Australian government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Krummel is employed by CSIRO and receives funding from MIT, NASA, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Department of the Environment and Energy, and Refrigerant Reclaim Australia.</span></em></p>The treaty to limit the destruction of the ozone layer is hailed as the most successful environmental agreement of all time. Three decades on, the ozone layer is slowly but surely returning to health.Andrew Klekociuk, Adjunct Senior Lecturer, University of TasmaniaPaul Krummel, Research Group Leader, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/710752017-01-18T19:06:26Z2017-01-18T19:06:26ZAustralia needs stricter rules to curb air pollution, but there’s a lot we could all do now<p>Have you ever left your car running as you wait for a passenger to return from a quick errand? It’s called idling, and while it may feel easier than switching it off and on again, it wastes money and fuel, and dumps pollutants into the air. Vehicle emissions are a very significant contributor to air pollution, which causes health problems.</p>
<p>Few of us would leave the tap running or the fridge door open, and many are diligent about turning off lights. But when it comes to air pollution, many people are wasteful and unaware.</p>
<p>We need major public health campaigns to change people’s beliefs about what they can do to reduce air pollution, similar to the campaigns and enforcement that made our public spaces smoke-free and our schools and beaches sun smart. Australia also needs stronger policy aimed at curbing air pollution.</p>
<p>The Australian government’s fuel efficiency standards and noxious vehicle emission standards <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/roads/environment/forum/index.aspx">review</a>, under way now, offers a chance to do that – but what’s been proposed so far doesn’t go anywhere near far enough.</p>
<h2>A lack of awareness and weak standards</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4414870/">Air pollution</a> is <a href="https://www.healtheffects.org/publication/traffic-related-air-pollution-critical-review-literature-emissions-exposure-and-health">associated with</a> cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, dementia, cancer, pregnancy complications and adverse birth outcomes.</p>
<p>Many governments around the world now ask citizens to stay home when <a href="https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/particulate-matter-pm-basics#PM">particulate matter</a> – meaning the mix of solid particles and liquid droplets in the air – from vehicles, fossil-fuel and wood burning are at hazardous levels. </p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/251667411_Estimating_the_effect_of_on-road_vehicle_emission_controls_on_future_air_quality_in_Paris_France">bans on diesel vehicles</a> in some places are part of a broader push to cut the amount of harmful particulate matter, nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide in the air.</p>
<p>Australia, by contrast, lags behind the rest of the world on policies to reduce air pollution. Take, for example, our rules on sulfur in fuels – a particularly damaging component of vehicle emissions.</p>
<p>Australia has one of the world’s most lenient sulfur standards for petrol, allowing 150 parts per million. That’s <a href="http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_StateOfCleanTransportPolicy_2014.pdf">15 times the limit allowed in the European Union</a>, Japan and the US. It’s three times what’s allowed in Brazil and China (China will allow just 10 parts per million from 2018).</p>
<p>Australia’s air quality standards, which are also being reviewed under the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/f190181a-9a4c-4e2f-8144-aad86e5d95ef/files/national-clean-air-agreement-mid-term-review-report.pdf">National Clean Air Agreement</a>, feature good targets – even better than the World Health Organisation recommendations for PM2.5. However, without stricter measures to reduce vehicle emissions, these air quality targets will not be achieved.</p>
<p>The Australian government’s review of <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/roads/environment/forum/files/Vehicle_Fuel_Efficiency_RIS.pdf">fuel efficiency</a> and <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/roads/environment/forum/files/Vehicle_Noxious_Emissions_RIS.pdf">vehicle emission</a> standards is looking at particulate matter, ozone, nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide (known collectively as NOx), and carbon. But what has been proposed so far worryingly includes a do-nothing scenario.</p>
<h2>Doing nothing comes with significant cost</h2>
<p>The OECD estimates that there are approximately <a href="http://www.oecd.org/env/the-cost-of-air-pollution-9789264210448-en.htm">740 preventable deaths per year in Australia</a> due to ozone and <a href="http://www.npi.gov.au/resource/particulate-matter-pm10-and-pm25">PM2.5</a> (the very fine particulate matter from vehicle emissions which, when inhaled, goes deep into the lungs and can pass into the bloodstream), but that does not include NOx – so these are very conservative estimates.</p>
<p>To put this in context, there are <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/road_deaths_australia_monthly_bulletins.aspx">1,280 deaths on our roads each year</a> and another 740 deaths due to vehicle emissions. This is a significant cost for choosing a transport system reliant on fossil fuel.</p>
<p>If the strictest standard being considered by Australia under the <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/roads/environment/forum/files/Vehicle_Noxious_Emissions_RIS.pdf">review</a> – the Euro 6 standard – is mandated for both light and heavy vehicles, a <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/roads/environment/forum/files/Vehicle_Noxious_Emissions_RIS.pdf">net benefit of A$675 million</a> will be realised by 2040. This figure is very small compared to the current annual cost of vehicle pollution to Australia of <a href="http://www.oecd.org/env/the-cost-of-air-pollution-9789264210448-en.htm">A$4 billion</a>.</p>
<p>But the standard Australia considers the strictest option is actually business as usual now in the US and Europe. Surprisingly, the <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/roads/environment/forum/files/Vehicle_Noxious_Emissions_RIS.pdf">impact statement</a> doesn’t even discuss banning or phasing out diesel vehicles in cities – a policy that experts now consider global best practice. </p>
<h2>What could be done?</h2>
<p>The decisions being made this year on Australia’s fuel efficiency and vehicle emission policies can improve the health of our urban air. This is a great chance to simultaneously improve fuel efficiency, demand higher-quality fuels and implement emission testing for vehicles to improve the air in our cities. </p>
<p>In the short term, we can all try to use cars less often and not idle our cars when in use. Raising awareness helps; a recent study showed <a href="https://www.fullyloaded.com.au/industry-news/0804/idling-reduction-trials-save-more-than-$12-million-in-diesel-report">millions of dollars could be saved in fuel costs</a> by exposing drivers of fleets to anti-idling initiatives. </p>
<p>Purchasing a vehicle with automatic <a href="http://www.motoring.com.au/how-it-works-idle-stop-51963/">idle-stop technology</a> will help cut vehicle emissions. This technology, popular in high-end European car models, automatically switches off the vehicle when it is still and allows the driver to restart the car when their foot presses the accelerator. </p>
<p>To achieve a population-level benefit from such technology, however, would require policymakers to include it in the <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/roads/motor/design/">Australian Design Rules</a>, the national standards for vehicle safety, anti-theft measures and emissions. That process can take many years.</p>
<p>A more sustainable approach to air pollution would be to upgrade Australian refineries to supply low-sulfur fuel. Although costly, the alternative – the escalating health burden associated with vehicle emissions – is a cost too high for society to pay.</p>
<p>We cannot afford to continually invest in a transport system operated solely on fossil fuels. Supporting public transport that operates with “clean” fuels (such as our trams and trains, which run on electricity) will go some way to reducing air pollution in our cities. It is worth noting, though, that while our electricity is mostly fossil-fuelled, this only shifts the air pollution to someone else’s backyard.</p>
<p>Importantly, we need to raise public awareness of the quality of our air and ensure the government considers the long-term ramifications of short-sighted policies. </p>
<p>We must all do our part to improve air quality in Australia – and that means not idling your car, which is an offence that can <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/documents/CompilationofStateIdlingRegulations.pdf">attract fines</a> as high as $5,000 and/or jail time in some parts of the world. </p>
<p>We can survive weeks without food, days without water, but only minutes without air. Let’s start treating our air as the valuable commodity it is.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71075/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robyn Schofield receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program's Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub, and the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Stevenson has received funding from the NHMRC and the ARC. </span></em></p>Australia needs stronger policy aimed at curbing air pollution, but the options currently on the table fall short. For now, we could all aim to drive less and turn off the engine when the car is idle.Robyn Schofield, Senior Lecturer for Climate System Science, The University of MelbourneMark Stevenson, Professor of Urban Transport and Public Health, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/597312016-05-25T04:57:58Z2016-05-25T04:57:58ZElection FactCheck: is Australia among the only major advanced economies where pollution levels are going up?<blockquote>
<p>Australia is now pretty much the only major advanced economy where pollution levels are going up, not coming down. – Labor shadow minister for the environment, climate change and water, Mark Butler, <a href="http://markbutler.alp.org.au/news/2016/05/18/opening-remarks-to-the-national-press-club">speech</a> to the National Press Club, May 18, 2016. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>During a debate with environment minister Greg Hunt, Labor’s shadow environment minister Mark Butler said that Australia is “pretty much” the only major advanced economy where pollution levels are rising. </p>
<p>Is he right?</p>
<h2>Checking the sources</h2>
<p>When asked for data to support his assertion, a spokesperson for Butler referred The Conversation to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (<a href="http://unfccc.int/2860.php">UNFCCC</a>), the UN agency that oversees international climate negotiations. The spokesperson also referred us to the website of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>, which suggests that by pollution he meant “greenhouse gas emissions”. However, the spokesperson did not specify what data set the statement was based upon, nor what Butler defined as a “major advanced economy”.</p>
<p>The IMF defines a “major advanced economy” as the G7 nations (and Australia is not among its members). In this FactCheck, we aim to compare Australia’s emissions with a range of <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/groups.htm">advanced economies</a> including the G7 member countries, the EU bloc and a selection of others such as Iceland, Korea and New Zealand. </p>
<p>The Conversation also asked over what time period pollution levels were “going up” according to Butler, but didn’t hear back before deadline. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, there are some obvious data sets against which Butler’s statement can be tested. </p>
<h2>How are Australia’s emissions trending?</h2>
<p>Greenhouse gas emissions inventory data <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/7c0b18b4-f230-444a-8ccd-162c8545daa6/files/nggi-quarterly-update-dec-2015.pdf">released in May by the Department of Environment</a> show that Australia’s emissions (excluding land use, land use change and forestry or LULUCF) rose by 0.4% between December 2014 and December 2015. Emissions rose 1.1% if land-use and forestry emissions are included.</p>
<p>The report included the following graph:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123330/original/image-20160520-4466-1elh6a1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123330/original/image-20160520-4466-1elh6a1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123330/original/image-20160520-4466-1elh6a1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123330/original/image-20160520-4466-1elh6a1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123330/original/image-20160520-4466-1elh6a1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123330/original/image-20160520-4466-1elh6a1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123330/original/image-20160520-4466-1elh6a1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123330/original/image-20160520-4466-1elh6a1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (excluding Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry), annual, ‘unadjusted’ emissions, 2005 to 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/7c0b18b4-f230-444a-8ccd-162c8545daa6/files/nggi-quarterly-update-dec-2015.pdf">Department of Environment</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The graph shows that Australian emissions have essentially stagnated over the past decade. The data shows a slight decrease from 2012 to 2014 and then an <em>increase</em> from 2014 to 2015. </p>
<p>So Butler was right to suggest that Australia’s emissions are on the rise, based on the latest 12-month snapshot. But is Australia the only advanced economy where that’s happening?</p>
<h2>How are other countries’ emissions trending?</h2>
<p>It turns out it’s not so easy to see if other advanced economies had an emissions rise between 2014 and 2015. There simply isn’t enough accurate global data available to do that comparison for such a recent and short time period.</p>
<p>To compare the most recent greenhouse gas emissions data (excluding land-use and forestry for which accounting rules vary) between countries, we used the <a href="http://pmd.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/showshort.php?id=escidoc:1504004">PRIMAPHIST</a> data set produced by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. </p>
<p>This composite data set uses widely recognised data sources, including data from the UNFCCC and other UN agencies. It contains greenhouse gas data (aggregated in a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-10-2.html">standardised way</a>) for all countries.</p>
<p>For <a href="http://unfccc.int/parties_and_observers/parties/annex_i/items/2774.php">developed countries</a>, the data is extracted from national <a href="http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/9492.php">reports</a> to the United Nations. For other countries, sources of data vary and more details are available <a href="https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/johannes/primaphist-dataset-description">here</a>. </p>
<p>As we said, there’s not enough recent data available to see if Australia is the only country where emissions rose between 2014 and 2015. However, we can compare Australia’s emissions trends with other countries’ emissions trends over a longer time interval – between 2000 and 2014 (the latest credible data available). </p>
<p>When we check what the PRIMAPHIST data shows about how Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions compare over that time frame with some of the other advanced economies (with the 28 European Union member states included as a bloc), here’s how it looks:</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Xv3zn/5/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="701"></iframe>
<p>Don’t be deceived by what may appear to be a low level of Australian emissions (the blue line). It’s an illusion. In fact, Australia is among <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/new-report-reveals-that-australia-is-among-the-worst-emitters-in-the-world">highest per capita emitters</a>.</p>
<p>A more telling way to determine how greenhouse gas trends have changed over time is to look at emissions as a percentage of 2000 levels. Crunched this way, here’s how Australian emissions between 2000 and 2014 look when compared with a selection of advanced economies. </p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/msDyA/9/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="596"></iframe>
<p>Australian emissions in 2014 were at 110.1% of the level they were in 2000. EU emissions in 2014 were at 82.43% of the level they were at in 2000. Calculations exclude emissions resulting from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) because there is no sufficiently reliable standardised accounting of LULUCF.</p>
<p>Our analysis of the PRIMAPHIST data shows that:</p>
<ul>
<li>Australia’s emissions rose fairly steadily until 2008 and have more or less stagnated since then. </li>
<li>Overall emissions for the G7 economies (with the EU member states grouped together) have been decreasing, mostly since 2007, and in 2014 were 8.9% below 2000 levels. </li>
<li>EU emissions show a strong decreasing trend.</li>
<li>Emissions from Canada, Japan and the United States show large fluctuations since 2008.</li>
<li>Australia’s emissions in 2014 were above those in 2000 – and this is unusual among advanced economies, but not unique. </li>
<li>Emissions from Korea, Iceland and New Zealand were also higher in 2014 than they were in 2000.</li>
</ul>
<p>What is most relevant, however, is what Australia’s emissions will do between now and 2030 and whether each nation is doing its <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054005">fair share</a> to limit global warming.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Whether or not Butler was right really depends on what time frame you’re looking at.</p>
<p>Government data shows that from 2014 to 2015, Australia’s emissions increased but we can’t say for sure if Australia was “pretty much” the only major advanced economy that experienced a rise that year. There’s not sufficient reliable comparative data available for that year.</p>
<p>Zooming out to check longer-term trends, we know that Australia’s emissions in 2014 were above those in 2000. This is unusual among advanced economies – but Australia was not alone in this regard.</p>
<p>Comparing Australia’s emissions trend with the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/groups.htm">major advanced economies</a> (the G7 countries with the EU bloc) between 2000 and 2014, Australia is the only one that had growing emissions over that time period. <strong>– Yann Robiou du Pont and Anita Talberg.</strong></p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>The authors of this FactCheck are correct. Mark Butler’s statement is suitably vague, such that depending on the definition of “major economy” and the time frame that is examined, the claim is probably true. Plus, the caveat of “pretty much” gives the statement a bit of leeway. The lack of solid, comparable data from all developed countries as well as major developing countries for the most recent time period also makes the claim difficult to confirm with absolute certainty.</p>
<p>The fact that Australia’s emissions are increasing is worthy of mention in itself, especially in the light of the pledges made at the Paris CoP21 meeting. <strong>– Roger Dargaville</strong></p>
<hr>
<p><div class="callout"> Have you ever seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59731/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yann Robiou du Pont receives funding from the Melbourne International Engagement Award (MIEA) scholarship.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anita Talberg receives an Australian Postgraduate Award PhD scholarship.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Dargaville receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) </span></em></p>Labor’s shadow environment minister, Mark Butler, said Australia is now “pretty much the only major advanced economy where pollution levels are going up, not coming down.” Is that right?Yann Robiou du Pont, PhD student at the Australian-German Climate & Energy College., The University of MelbourneDr Anita Talberg, PhD student in the Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.