tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/automation-4443/articlesAutomation – The Conversation2024-03-18T00:27:02Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257892024-03-18T00:27:02Z2024-03-18T00:27:02ZHow safe are Australia’s mines? New analysis shows reform has been stalled for a decade<p>On Sunday August 7 1994, an <a href="https://www.publications.qld.gov.au/dataset/moura-mining-disaster-inquiry-reports/resource/a8e96409-52a3-4075-b4a6-b1224ecc8e63">explosion at the Moura No 2 underground coal mine</a> in Queensland led to the deaths of 11 miners. This tragedy was the catalyst for a major shakeup in the approach to safety in all kinds of mines around Australia over the late 1990s and early 2000s.</p>
<p>Since that time, we have seen <a href="https://data.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/interactive-data/industry/mining">major improvements in safety performance</a>. In 2003, there were 12.4 fatalities per 100,000 workers; a decade later the figure was down to 3.4.</p>
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<p>However, since then progress has slowed if not stalled. Despite the industry’s adoption of risk management systems, competency training, and a shift away from prescriptive regulation in the years following Moura, the rate of deaths and serious injuries has barely changed over the past decade.</p>
<p>Given the huge size and variety of Australia’s mining industry, and the inherent dangers of the work, we may never reach a time when there are no deaths. But zero fatalities must still be the goal.</p>
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<h2>A rise in ‘one-off’ incidents</h2>
<p>In the past, most deaths were due to what are called “principal hazards”. These are major incidents such as fires, explosions and mine flooding that can kill or injure many people. </p>
<p>Most safety work has, for good reason, focused on these hazards, and by my count they are today involved in fewer than 20% of deaths. What this means is that today’s tragedy landscape is more diffuse, with fatalities scattered across a range of different scenarios.</p>
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<p>Now, most deaths are the result of “one-off” events such as being struck by objects, caught in machinery, falling from heights, or vehicle collisions. Addressing all these possibilities is more complex.</p>
<h2>Mental health, fatigue, staff turnover</h2>
<p>Human factors also loom large. Despite a huge increase in mine automation and remote operation technologies that reduce workers’ exposure to hazards, there are indications of <a href="https://www.ecu.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/1060080/Michael-Quinlan-Presentation.pdf">worsening mental health</a>, rising fatigue and <a href="https://www.aigroup.com.au/news/reports/2023-economics/factsheet-labour-turnover-in-2023/">high staff turnover</a>, which can erode corporate knowledge.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/mine-workers-and-their-families-suffer-the-toll-of-shift-work-10897">Mine workers and their families suffer the toll of shift work</a>
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<p>Psychological and social problems such as these affect an <a href="https://minerals.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/MCA_Mental_Health_Blueprint.pdf">estimated 20%</a> of the modern mining workforce. Although there are fewer workers on site, they are often under huge production pressures and the rosters can be very tough on family life. </p>
<p>Poor mental health can compromise decision-making and reduce vigilance, leading to safety problems.</p>
<h2>Slow, steady improvement</h2>
<p>There are some promising developments. The “<a href="https://www.icmm.com/en-gb/guidance/health-safety/2015/ccm-good-practice-guide">critical control management</a>” approach already adopted by <a href="https://www.riotinto.com/en/invest/reports/sustainability-report">Rio Tinto</a> and <a href="https://s24.q4cdn.com/382246808/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/%E2%80%8CNewmont-2022-Annual-Report.pdf">Newmont</a>, among others, has been highly effective. This is a method that identifies a relatively small number of vital controls that can prevent serious incidents, and directs resources towards rigorously designing, implementing and maintaining them.</p>
<p>We are also likely to see future safety gains from <a href="https://www.acarp.com.au/abstracts.aspx?repId=C29001">better equipment design</a>, further advances in automation and remote operation, and mental health initiatives, such as Western Australia’s <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/organisation/department-of-energy-mines-industry-regulation-and-safety/mental-awareness-respect-and-safety-mars-program">Mental Awareness, Respect and Safety</a> program.</p>
<p>But in an industry that has still averaged <a href="https://data.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/interactive-data/industry/mining">eight fatalities per year</a> over the past decade, more safety reform is overdue. While new technologies and initiatives may be helpful, none will be a “silver bullet”.</p>
<p>Queensland alone has staged three “<a href="https://www.rshq.qld.gov.au/about-us/resources/safety-reset">safety resets</a>” in the past five years, with little result. Real safety improvement will be slow and steady, and will come from diligently and consistently applying proven safety management techniques.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225789/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Cliff has received funding from many different sources including various major mining companies and government regulatory agencies such as Resources Safety And Health Queensland, research funding from various independent and industry funded agencies such as the Australian Coal Association Research Program. He is a member of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, the Mine Managers Association of Australia and various professional bodies such as the Australian Institute of Occupational Health and Safety, and the Royal Australian Chemical Institute.</span></em></p>Mining’s high-tech transformation has dramatically increased safety – but there is plenty more work to be done.David Cliff, Professor of Occupational Health and Safety in Mining, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239812024-02-26T04:31:39Z2024-02-26T04:31:39ZWhat happens when we outsource boring but important work to AI? Research shows we forget how to do it ourselves<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577794/original/file-20240226-18-688ppo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C0%2C5946%2C3368&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bangkok-thailand-16-january-2021man-driving-1896624946">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2009, an Air France jet crashed into the ocean, leaving no survivors. The plane’s autopilot system shut down and the pilots, having become reliant on their computerised assistant, were <a href="https://hbr.org/2017/09/the-tragic-crash-of-flight-af447-shows-the-unlikely-but-catastrophic-consequences-of-automation">unable to correct the situation manually</a>.</p>
<p>In 2015, a bus driver in Europe typed the wrong destination into his GPS device and cheerfully took a group of Belgian tourists on <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/gps-fail-bus-driver-takes-belgian-tourists-1200km-in-wrong-direction/s53bvant3">a 1,200 kilometre detour</a> in the wrong direction.</p>
<p>In 2017, in a decision later overturned on appeal, US prosecutors who had agreed to release a teenager on probation <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/should-we-be-afraid-of-ai-in-the-criminal-justice-system/592084/">abruptly changed their minds</a> because an algorithm ruled the defendant “high risk”.</p>
<p>These are dramatic examples, but they are far from isolated. When we outsource cognitive tasks to technology – such as flying a plane, navigating, or making a judgement – research shows we may <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/154193121005402305">lose the ability</a> to perform those tasks ourselves. There is even a term for our tendency to forget information that is available through online search engines: <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.333.6040.277">the Google effect</a>. </p>
<p>As new AI technologies promise to automate an increasing range of activities, the risk of “skill erosion” is growing. Our research shows <a href="https://aisel.aisnet.org/jais/vol24/iss5/2/">how it can happen</a> – and suggests ways to keep hold of the expertise you need, even when you don’t need it every day.</p>
<h2>Skill erosion can cripple an organisation</h2>
<p>My research shows the risk of skill erosion is easily overlooked. In a recent study, my team and I examined <a href="https://aisel.aisnet.org/jais/vol24/iss5/2/">skill erosion in an accounting company</a>. </p>
<p>The company had recently stopped using software that automated much of its fixed-asset accounting service. However, the accountants found themselves unable to carry out the task without it. Years of over-reliance on the software had eroded their expertise, and ultimately, they had to relearn their fixed-asset accounting skills.</p>
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<p>While the software was rule-based (it did not use machine learning or “AI”), it was “smart” enough to track depreciation and produce reports for many tax and financial purposes. These are tasks that human accountants found very complex and tedious.</p>
<p>The company only became aware of skill erosion after a client found errors in the accounting team’s manual reports. With its accountants lacking sufficient expertise, the company had to commission the software provider to fix the errors. </p>
<h2>How skill erosion happens</h2>
<p>We found that a lack of mindfulness about the automation-supported task had led to skill erosion. The old saying, “use it or lose it”, applies to cognitively intense work as much as to anything else.</p>
<p>The accountants were not concerned about outsourcing their thinking to the software, since it operated almost flawlessly. In other words, they fell prey to “<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21077562/">automation complacency</a>”: the assumption that “all is well” while ignoring potential risks. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-is-everywhere-including-countless-applications-youve-likely-never-heard-of-222985">AI is everywhere – including countless applications you've likely never heard of</a>
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<p>This had three major consequences:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>they lost their awareness of what automation was doing </p></li>
<li><p>they lost the incentive to maintain and update relevant knowledge (such as tax legislation), because the vendor and software did that for them</p></li>
<li><p>as the software was reliable, they no longer bothered to check the outgoing reports for accuracy. </p></li>
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<h2>How to maintain your skills</h2>
<p>So, how do you prevent complacency while using AI and other automated systems? Here are three tips: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>pay attention to what the system is doing – what inputs are used, for what purpose, and what might affect its suggestions</p></li>
<li><p>keep your competence up to date (especially if you are legally accountable for the outcomes)</p></li>
<li><p>critically assess the results, even if the final outcomes appear satisfactory. </p></li>
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<img alt="A photo of two pilots in a plane cockpit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577802/original/file-20240226-20-pcjl54.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577802/original/file-20240226-20-pcjl54.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577802/original/file-20240226-20-pcjl54.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577802/original/file-20240226-20-pcjl54.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577802/original/file-20240226-20-pcjl54.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577802/original/file-20240226-20-pcjl54.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577802/original/file-20240226-20-pcjl54.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Keeping your skills sharp while using automated systems requires paying close attention.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cockpit-modern-jet-airplane-aircraft-flies-523957972">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>What would this look like in practice? Here’s an everyday example: driving with the help of an AI-powered navigation app. </p>
<p>Instead of blindly following the app’s instructions, pay attention to road signs and landmarks, and be aware of what you are doing even when guided by the app. </p>
<p>Study the map and suggested route before driving to increase your “domain knowledge”, or understanding of what is around the route. This helps you relate your specific path to the broader environment, which will be helpful if you get lost or want to find alternative routes.</p>
<p>When you reach your destination, reflect on the route the app suggested: was it fast, was it safe, was it enjoyable? If not, consider taking a different route next time, even if the app suggests otherwise. </p>
<h2>Is AI a necessary companion?</h2>
<p>The case of the accounting firm also raises a bigger question: what skills are relevant and worth maintaining, and which ones should we relinquish to automation? </p>
<p>There is no universal answer, as professional skills change across time, jurisdictions, industries, cultures and geographical locations. However, it is a question we will have to contend with as AI takes over activities once considered unable to be automated.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drowning-in-digital-debt-ai-assistants-can-help-but-we-must-use-them-carefully-223436">Drowning in 'digital debt'? AI assistants can help – but we must use them carefully</a>
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<p>Despite the struggles, the accounting manager in our case study believes the automated software is highly beneficial. In his view, his team just got caught off guard by complacency. </p>
<p>In a world focused on efficiency and annual or quarterly targets, organisations favour solutions that improve things in the short term, even if they have negative long-term side effects. This is what happened in the accounting case: efficiency gains overshadowed abstract concerns about expertise, until problems ensued. </p>
<p>This does not mean that we should avoid AI. Organisations cannot afford to miss out on the opportunities it presents. However, they should also be aware of the risk of skill erosion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223981/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tapani Rinta-Kahila is a recipient of the Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (project number DE240100269) funded by the Australian Government. His research on this topic has previously been funded by the Jenny and Antti Wihuri Foundation.</span></em></p>AI and smart software make life easier, most of the time. How do you keep your skills up for the times when they fail?Tapani Rinta-Kahila, Lecturer in Business Information Systems, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225962024-02-14T16:54:32Z2024-02-14T16:54:32ZThe rise of robo-retail: Who gets left behind when retail is automated?<p>Canada’s first robotic cafe, <a href="https://youtu.be/JEQambkCuVw?si=k9ffNSOZBfSC3K3C">RC Coffee</a>, opened <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9039689/automated-work-coffee-barista-future-jobs">in Toronto in October 2020</a>. The flagship location of the coffee chain revived the <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/meet-me-at-the-automat-47804151/">long-dormant retail concept of the automat</a>: a restaurant where food and drinks are served by technology, rather than human staff. </p>
<p>The new coffee automat consisted of a touchscreen for placing orders, a window that allows customers to watch a robotic arm prepare their coffee, and a slot that dispenses the completed order.</p>
<p>Such new, digitally enabled forms of retail automation have been <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/food-and-wine/article-restaurants-may-be-closed-but-you-can-now-get-a-fresh-cup-of-coffee/">growing in popularity within Canada</a> over the past decade, motivated as much by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marcoannunziata/2020/04/21/the-robots-that-help-get-food-on-the-shelves-in-the-covid-19-crisis/?sh=3943cf6d583f">safety concerns surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic</a> as <a href="https://financialpost.com/fp-work/nobody-wants-that-job-some-businesses-are-turning-to-robots-to-solve-labour-shortage-woes">perceived labour shortages in the service sector</a>. </p>
<p>Toronto has seen the arrival of numerous autonomous business concepts, ranging from <a href="https://youtu.be/qhpsDpsSyeA?si=ULFdfYzJhxPlbX34">Aisle 24’s cashier-less grocery stores</a> to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OW7d9kLjWB4">PizzaForno’s 24/7 pizza vending machines</a>. </p>
<p>As of the writing of this article, there are at least 10 coffee automats, six automated pizzerias and 14 unstaffed convenience stores within Toronto — and even more in the Greater Toronto Area.</p>
<p>These novel businesses often emphasize unparalleled convenience enabled by innovative new technologies. <a href="https://www.rccoffee.com/">As RC Coffee advertises on their website</a>: “our ground-breaking robotic coffee is available 24/7 and stays open every day of the year.”</p>
<p>Although the contactless convenience of these stores can be captivating, it’s important to pause and consider who benefits most from these innovations and who is left behind.</p>
<h2>No card, no phone, no service</h2>
<p>One concern is that automated stores generally operate on a cashless business model. Checkout is accomplished through a touchscreen interface paired with a point-of-sale device that only accepts debit, credit or smartphone payments. </p>
<p>This practice aligns with <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/money-homelessness-economics-credit-debt-1.5613973">the general decline in cash usage for retail transactions in Canada</a> — a trend that was already underway before 2020, but <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/cash-coronavirus-questions-answered-1.5609691">accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>Although convenient for many, cashless checkout arrangements can prevent certain individuals from patronizing these businesses. </p>
<p>Those currently experiencing homelessness are often cited as the primary demographic that still relies on cash; however, it is estimated that about <a href="https://thewalrus.ca/cashless-society/">15 per cent of Canadians are “underbanked,”</a> meaning they have limited knowledge of or access to digital banking services. </p>
<p>Since these underbanked individuals often hail from low-income communities, they are already disproportionately burdened by the transaction fees associated with debit payments.</p>
<p>Aisle 24 goes one step further by requiring customers to <a href="https://aisle24.ca/shop/">download an app and create an account</a> to enter their unstaffed convenience stores. This not only presents an obstacle for the communities mentioned above, but also impacts seniors, who still <a href="https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/3582-so-long-landline-hello-smartphone">lag behind in smartphone adoption</a>.</p>
<h2>Automation and accessibility</h2>
<p>Unlike the self-checkout aisles in grocery stores, <a href="https://datasociety.net/library/ai-in-context/">which typically maintain staff to help troubleshoot technical issues</a>, automated stores generally have no onsite employees. This poses a potential problem should a customer require immediate assistance — specifically, assistance related to a disability.</p>
<p>The Canadian National Institute for the Blind notes that <a href="https://www.cnib.ca/en/accessible-payment-terminals?region=on">touchscreen payment terminals often lack haptic feedback or other accessibility features</a>, creating a barrier for Canadians with vision loss. </p>
<p>Similarly, instructions for navigating these autonomous experiences — which can already be physically or cognitively challenging due to their atypical interfaces and floor plans — are predominantly provided visually through electronic signage, printed instructions and floor decals.</p>
<p>Although these businesses generally provide a phone number or email address for remote assistance, the absence of onsite staff raises questions about the compatibility of unstaffed retail with the <a href="https://www.aoda.ca/guide-to-the-act/">Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act (AODA)</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.aoda.ca/customer-care-guide/">customer service standard under the AODA</a> mandates that all customers should have equal access to services without having to accept more inconvenience. It specifically addresses concerns about businesses over-relying on visual displays instead of customer service.</p>
<h2>Disappearing public amenities</h2>
<p>Lastly, the automation of these retail locations often closes off taken-for-granted public amenities. In large North American cities like Toronto, spaces like public parks, shopping malls and subway stations are <a href="https://manifold.umn.edu/projects/callous-objects">increasingly being designed without expected amenities</a> like sitting areas, drinking fountains and public bathrooms. </p>
<p>These omissions are often intentional design choices made by business owners or municipal stakeholders to <a href="https://spacing.ca/toronto/2019/07/30/mapping-defensive-urban-design-in-toronto/">deter loitering, reduce maintenance costs and prevent vandalism</a>.</p>
<p>The architecture of automats like RC Coffee are characterized by such omissions. The bathrooms, indoor seating and free Wi-Fi that we would normally expect from a cafe are notably absent from these locations. </p>
<p>Instead, the building façades have been converted into seamless interfaces for taking orders. And, in many cases, amenities <em>were</em> previously available at these sites but were removed during renovations. </p>
<p>Historical Google Street View data reveals that the RC Coffee on 160 Baldwin Street in Kensington Market, for example, was home to two traditional sit-in cafes prior to the opening of the automat in 2021.</p>
<p>This general divestment from providing public amenities slots into a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/how-defensive-design-leads-to-rigid-benches-metal-spikes-and-visual-violence-in-modern-cities-1.5192333">broader trend within Canadian urban planning towards defensive architecture</a>, often disproportionately targeting youths and those experiencing homelessness. </p>
<p>As unstaffed stores continue to displace traditional businesses, residents are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098017732690">being gently discouraged from spending time in public spaces outside of brief commercial transactions</a>. Beyond simply being an issue of customer service, this move towards automation signals a significant transformation in how we interact with our cities and each other.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222596/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mathew Iantorno does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Autonomous retail concepts are becoming a common fixture in downtown Canada. But are these novel businesses beneficial to everyone?Mathew Iantorno, Doctoral Candidate in Information, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183312024-02-13T13:20:40Z2024-02-13T13:20:40ZOur robot harvests cotton by reaching out and plucking it, like a lizard’s tongue snatching flies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571200/original/file-20240124-15-t230yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C6%2C4001%2C2593&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cotton in bloom in Oklahoma.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/field-of-cotton-royalty-free-image/148704945">John Elk/the image Bank via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cotton is one of the most valuable crops grown in the U.S., with a harvest value of <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/cotton-and-wool/cotton-sector-at-a-glance/">some US$7 billion yearly</a>. It is cultivated across a crescent of 17 states stretching <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/cotton-and-wool/cotton-sector-at-a-glance/">from Virginia to California</a> and is used in <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/cotton-and-wool/cotton-sector-at-a-glance/">virtually every type of clothing</a>, as well as in medical supplies and home goods such as upholstery. </p>
<p>Cotton grows inside a hard, fibrous case called a boll. About 100 days after planting, the bolls mature and split open, revealing thousands of fluffy white fibers inside. Each boll contains 20 to 40 seeds with fibers attached to them, which is why the cotton plant’s fruit is called seed cotton. </p>
<p>Picking cotton manually, as is still done in some <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/cotton-production-by-country">major producing countries</a>, is a meticulous task. Workers have to bend to reach the bolls and can hurt their hands on <a href="https://libguides.nybg.org/c.php?g=1003078&p=7264406">hard, dry parts of the plants</a>. To harvest the seed cotton, they have to grab and twist it to separate it from the boll without leaving fiber behind. </p>
<p>Starting in the 1930s, cotton farmers in the U.S. shifted from manual labor to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/cotton-harvester">large, heavy harvesters</a>. Now the industry is entering a new stage that promises to be more efficient and precise. </p>
<p>I am an engineer and have <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AGlJEMQAAAAJ&hl=en">nearly 20 years of research experience</a> working on agricultural machinery. My current focus is on agricultural robotics and automation. During my Ph.D. program at Mississippi State University, I worked with <a href="https://www.abe.msstate.edu/people/faculty/j-alex-thomasson/">Alex Thomasson</a>, who heads the <a href="https://www.abe.msstate.edu/">agricultural and biological engineering department</a> and the <a href="https://www.aai.msstate.edu/">Agricultural Autonomy Institute</a>, to develop a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2023.107943">robotic cotton harvester</a> that picks cotton with less damage to the product and the soil where it grows.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571202/original/file-20240124-23-258u5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man stands in front of a cotton field, next to a wheeled machine with a computer screen on top and wires hanging from it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571202/original/file-20240124-23-258u5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571202/original/file-20240124-23-258u5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571202/original/file-20240124-23-258u5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571202/original/file-20240124-23-258u5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571202/original/file-20240124-23-258u5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571202/original/file-20240124-23-258u5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571202/original/file-20240124-23-258u5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mississippi State University engineering professor Hussein Gharakhani with a prototype robotic cotton harvester.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hussein Gharakhani</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why use robotics?</h2>
<p>Cotton farmers have economic, environmental and agricultural reasons to want a better option for harvesting. Traditional mechanical harvesters can be up to 14 feet long and weigh more than 30 tons. They remove cotton effectively without damaging the plants but also can cause problems. </p>
<p>One issue is prolonged fiber exposure. Cotton bolls don’t all mature at the same time; the first open bolls in a field may wait for up to 50 days to be picked, until more bolls around them ripen. </p>
<p>Another challenge is that harvesting machines compact the soil as they roll over it. This makes it harder for water and fertilizer to penetrate down to plant roots. And the machines cost roughly US$1 million apiece but are used for only two to three months each year. </p>
<p>Robotics is a potential solution that farmers are already using for other crops, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11119-022-09913-3">fruits and vegetables</a>. Harvesting robots use cameras and sensors to detect when crops are ready to pick and can remove them without damaging the plant. </p>
<p>For cotton, robotics offers more targeted picking of bolls that are ready to harvest. It produces better-quality cotton fiber by picking seed cotton as soon as the bolls open, without leaving it exposed to the weather. The robot targets the seed cotton and avoids touching other parts of the plant. </p>
<p>With robotic picking, cotton farmers <a href="https://ipm.ucanr.edu/agriculture/cotton/scheduling-defoliation/">don’t need to use defoliants</a> to remove leaves from the plants prior to harvesting, which is a common practice now. And small, nimble robots don’t compress the soil as they move over it, so they help maintain soil health.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571208/original/file-20240124-17-ekvdtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large green machine drives through a cotton field with a man riding on an observation deck. The harvester is more than twice the man's height." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571208/original/file-20240124-17-ekvdtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571208/original/file-20240124-17-ekvdtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571208/original/file-20240124-17-ekvdtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571208/original/file-20240124-17-ekvdtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571208/original/file-20240124-17-ekvdtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571208/original/file-20240124-17-ekvdtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571208/original/file-20240124-17-ekvdtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A mechanical harvester picking cotton in Alabama in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/2myChzr">Katie Nichols/Alabama Extension/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A bioinspired ‘picking hand’</h2>
<p>Our work focuses on designing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atech.2022.100043">an end-effector for robotic cotton harvesting</a>. An end-effector is a robotic hand that enables the robot to interact with other objects. Ours is a three-fingered version designed for delicate and efficient cotton picking. It draws inspiration from nature, mimicking the hunting prowess of a lizard.</p>
<p>Each finger is a 3D-printed structure that contains a moving belt with pins attached to it. The pins help the hand grasp and pull in the seed cotton. Like a lizard <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3oh73amxQo">snatching prey with its sticky tongue</a>, our end-effector’s three fingers approach the seed cotton delicately. On contact, the cotton fibers stick to the machine’s fingers, much as an insect sticks to a lizard’s tongue. </p>
<p>Next, the hand retracts quickly, like the lizard’s tongue. The end-effector keeps working to “swallow” the seed cotton, transferring it out of the plant. As the harvester picks and transfers seed cotton out of the plant, the end-effector touches parts of the cotton boll with remaining seed cotton multiple times to pick as much as possible.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IztKk3E7zSc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A robotic harvester picks cotton in a field test.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To pick cotton efficiently, our robot has to do three things: detect bolls that are ready for harvest, determine exactly where they are located in a three-dimensional space and pick the cotton.</p>
<p>The robot uses a deep-learning algorithm that we have trained to recognize open bolls on cotton plants. It uses a stereovision camera to calculate their 3D spatial coordinates, which it transfers to the robotic arm. A control algorithm monitors each cotton boll to ensure that the robot picks as much seed cotton as possible. </p>
<h2>Testing and results</h2>
<p>So far, we have tested the robotic cotton harvester in <a href="https://youtu.be/WnzJNlSS5iU?si=HkSDbRiQp3Y-HSUj">the laboratory</a> and in <a href="https://youtu.be/IztKk3E7zSc?si=8iC9gVI3wfXZktPf">cotton fields</a>. The detection system found 78% of ripe cotton bolls; the localization system calculated 3D coordinates for 70% of the detected bolls; and the picking system successfully harvested 83% of these bolls. Overall, the robot picked about 50% of the cotton bolls that were within its reach. </p>
<p>Our harvester picked cotton at a speed of 8.8 seconds per boll. If we can decrease this required time to 0.3 seconds and increase the robot’s efficiency to pick at least 90% of the cotton bolls it can reach, by optimizing the system and adding more arms on a robot, a fleet of 50 robots could harvest a cotton field as quickly as a mechanical harvester, with a comparable yield.</p>
<p>To improve the robot’s overall performance, we plan to adopt better artificial intelligence algorithms, improve our system’s camera and add another degree of movement to the robotic arm – for example, enabling the end-effector to rotate – to increase its dexterity. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571214/original/file-20240124-23-1cp4yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman wearing a sun visor and with a cloth bag slung around her waist bends over plants in a cotton field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571214/original/file-20240124-23-1cp4yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571214/original/file-20240124-23-1cp4yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571214/original/file-20240124-23-1cp4yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571214/original/file-20240124-23-1cp4yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571214/original/file-20240124-23-1cp4yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571214/original/file-20240124-23-1cp4yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571214/original/file-20240124-23-1cp4yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman picks cotton at a plantation in Birlik, Uzbekistan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-uzbek-woman-picks-cotton-buds-at-a-cotton-plantation-in-news-photo/1236076112">Vyacheslav Oseledko/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We see great potential for our robot in major cotton-producing countries such as China, India, Pakistan and Uzbekistan, where cotton is currently picked by hand, often <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34844992">by women and children</a> and sometimes <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/society-equity/regulatory-crackdown-slavery-cotton-supply-chains-wake-up-call-fashion-brands-2023-08-20/">under abusive conditions</a>. One way to make this technology available for small farmers in low-income countries would be to make smaller, semi-autonomous robots that would require fewer sensors. Producing higher-value cotton with less damage to plants and soil could improve life for millions of people who earn their livings raising this global crop.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218331/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Gharakhani receives funding from Cotton Incorporated, a nonprofit research and marketing company that works to improve demand for and profitability of cotton.</span></em></p>Cotton is one of the world’s largest crops and is harvested with large, heavy machines. Robotic harvesting could yield higher-quality cotton with less damage to plants and soil.Hussein Gharakhani, Assistant Professor of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214042024-01-28T23:03:24Z2024-01-28T23:03:24ZFreedom of information laws are key to exposing AI wrongdoing. The current system isn’t up to the task<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571098/original/file-20240124-21-1f2awd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C0%2C8431%2C4888&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/ai-law-act-internet-coding-standards-2307235073">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s been much discussion about how artificial intelligence (AI) will affect every part of our society, from school assignments to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-ai-will-impact-music-from-elvis-holograms-to-interactive-soundscapes-221260">music industry</a>.</p>
<p>But while policymakers continue to debate how best to regulate AI, there’s a question that’s received little attention: how ready are our freedom of information laws to deal with new technology?</p>
<p>Freedom of information laws are important because they help keep governments accountable and transparent. Without them, key wrongdoings can remain secret. </p>
<p>As technology continues to evolve rapidly, it’s time for a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4699934">fundamental rethink</a> of Australia’s freedom of information regime to make it fit for purpose for 2024 and beyond.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-plans-to-regulate-high-risk-ai-heres-how-to-do-that-successfully-221321">Australia plans to regulate 'high-risk' AI. Here's how to do that successfully</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Transparency laws key in automation issues</h2>
<p>You may be wondering what freedom of information (FOI) laws have to do with AI and automation. A good example of how the two work together is the recent Horizon scandal in the United Kingdom.</p>
<p>This scandal occurred when a computer accounting system called Horizon incorrectly identified shortfalls in the finances of post offices across the UK. The UK Post Office authority prosecuted 700 post office masters as a result of the system’s findings. Some went to prison for fraud and theft, and many others were <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56718036">financially ruined</a>. </p>
<p>It has been described as “possibly the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-post-office-scandal-is-possibly-the-largest-miscarriage-of-justice-in-uk-history-and-its-not-over-yet-211217">largest miscarriage of justice</a> in UK history”.</p>
<p>Importantly, campaigners in the UK made extensive use of FOI to obtain information about the system. For instance, a request by <a href="https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/user/eleanor_shaikh">leading campaigner</a> led to the disclosure of a Post Office document that used <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-65730464">offensive and racist terms</a> to categorise sub-postmasters under investigation. </p>
<p>Another FOI request found that government authorities were told of possible problems with the system back in <a href="https://www.scottishlegal.com/articles/horizon-scandal-crown-office-was-made-aware-of-problems-in-2013">May 2013</a>.</p>
<p>This debacle should serve as a reminder to Australia of the implications of using AI and automation in government systems. </p>
<p>It should also cause us to question whether our laws are fit to deal with the particular challenges of technology, especially as Australia’s transparency laws are more restrictive than those in the UK. There is no absolute exemption for cabinet documents in the UK.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/frank-and-far-reaching-senate-report-recommends-shake-up-of-the-way-freedom-of-information-is-handled-219331">Frank and far-reaching: Senate report recommends shake-up of the way freedom of information is handled</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Reform desperately needed</h2>
<p>Regulation of AI in Australia has been in the news recently due to the release of the government’s <a href="https://consult.industry.gov.au/supporting-responsible-ai">interim response</a> to the responsible AI consultation. </p>
<p>While this is an important initiative, comparatively little attention has been given to the need to update some of our key transparency mechanisms.</p>
<p>For instance, the government has refused to implement an important recommendation from the 2023 Robodebt Royal Commission <a href="https://robodebt.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/report">report</a>. This recommended that the cabinet exemption (the provision that allows cabinet documents to be exempt from disclosure) in the Freedom of Information Act be <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/resource/download/gov-response-royal-commission-robodebt-scheme.pdf">repealed</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1726443884962558205"}"></div></p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/resources/government-response-royal-commission-robodebt-scheme">saying</a> it “accepts or accepts in principle all 56 recommendations” of the report, the government didn’t formally accept the freedom of information recommendation. In its response, it said this was due to the need to protect cabinet confidentiality, collective responsibility and the giving of “frank and fearless advice from Ministers and senior public servants”.</p>
<p>The royal commission report also noted that affected people and advocacy groups faced significant difficulties in obtaining information about the operation of the Robodebt scheme, including via the Freedom of Information Act. These findings are significant because the over-classification of government information was one reason Robodebt was allowed to continue with impunity for so long. </p>
<h2>What needs to happen now?</h2>
<p>The increasing use of automation and AI in government requires greater openness with the public. To achieve a balance between transparency and cabinet confidentiality, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4699934">our paper</a> recommends the following changes:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the cabinet exemption to be supplemented with a legislated public interest test and appeal to the Information Commissioner, as in the UK</p></li>
<li><p>narrowing the scope of documents covered by cabinet confidentiality</p></li>
<li><p>reduction of the disclosure timeframe from 30 years to ten years, in line with several Australian states.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>But we are also calling for a much larger review and modernisation of the Freedom of Information Act.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-are-concerned-about-ai-is-the-federal-government-doing-enough-to-mitigate-risks-221300">Australians are concerned about AI. Is the federal government doing enough to mitigate risks?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The laws were passed in 1982, when hard copy documents were the norm and government online processes were in their infancy. Although it has been subject to some minor amendments since then, it has not yet been subject to a major overhaul to recognise the enormous technological advances that have occurred. </p>
<p>As we and others previously argued in a <a href="https://www.unswlawjournal.unsw.edu.au/article/revitalising-public-law-in-a-technological-era-rights-transparency-and-administrative-justice">2020 paper on technology and the law</a>, future reforms should include expanding the scope of the Act to allow for greater openness and reducing the exemptions for trade secrets (to allow for disclosure of the commercial information used for automated technologies). We have also suggested that governmental agencies should be obliged to be more proactive in disclosing the details of the automated technologies they have used. This will assist in making our FOI regime fit for purpose - in 2024 and beyond.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221404/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Automation has wreaked havoc with government processes here and overseas, and freedom of information laws have been key to exposing it. But with the rise of AI, our laws need modernising.Maria O'Sullivan, Associate Professor of Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityYee-Fui Ng, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2107792023-08-02T19:55:27Z2023-08-02T19:55:27ZB.C. labour dispute: It’s time for an industrial inquiry commission into ports and automation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540889/original/file-20230802-19-98ffbc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C379%2C6120%2C3940&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Striking International Longshore and Warehouse Union Canada workers march to a rally as gantry cranes used to load and unload cargo containers from ships sit idle at port, in Vancouver, on July 6, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/bc-labour-dispute-its-time-for-an-industrial-inquiry-commission-into-ports-and-automation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>A <a href="https://www.bcmeanegotiations.com/joint-ilwu-canada-and-bcmea-news-release/">new tentative agreement was reached</a> on July 30 between the two groups involved in a labour dispute affecting British Columbia ports with the help of the Industrial Relations Board.</p>
<p>At the beginning of July, about 7,400 port workers went on strike for 13 days <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-port-workers-resume-strike-1.6910572">over issues including automation</a>, outside contracting and the increasing cost of living.</p>
<p>This new deal — between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Canada (ILWU) and the B.C. Maritime Employers Association — comes <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9866982/bc-port-strike-tentative-deal-oregan/">after union members rejected a previous deal on July 28</a>.</p>
<p>By initially rejecting the first contract, ILWU members implied that a generous wage and benefit package — which employers had agreed to pay — was not enough to address their concerns about potential job losses and workplace changes.</p>
<p>This isn’t a one-sided problem; under <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/atlantic-canada-opportunities/services/researchstudies2.html">current workplace arrangements and labour market pressures</a>, port operators are unlikely to attract and retain workers with the skills required to implement the coming automation.</p>
<p>With the prospect that the <a href="https://thetyee.ca/News/2023/02/16/Union-Fears-Robots-Will-Kill-Jobs-Port-Expansion/">new container terminal at Roberts Bank port</a>, south of Vancouver, will be the first fully automated terminal in B.C., this issue is more important than ever.</p>
<h2>Canada Labour Code</h2>
<p>After the initial deal between the union and the employer’s association was rejected, Labour Minister Seamus O'Regan <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/news/2023/07/statement-by-minister-oregan0.html">asked the Canada Industrial Relations Board</a> whether a negotiated resolution was still possible, and to impose a new collective agreement or binding arbitration if it was not. </p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9811240/alberta-minister-back-to-work-legislation-bc-port-strike/">many people demanding back-to-work legislation</a>, O'Regan followed the <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/l-2/">Canada Labour Code</a>, which encourages free collective bargaining and advocates for the constructive settlement of disputes.</p>
<p>In support of the idea that negotiated settlements are best, the code provides the minister with tools to prod, push or force parties in an industrial dispute to find a deal they can both live with.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black man in a blazer and newsboy cap speaks to a crowd of people waving flags and holding signs that say ILWU CANADA" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Willie Adams, International President of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, speaks at a strike rally in Vancouver, on July 9, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ethan Cairns</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Drawing on my <a href="http://www.sfu.ca/%7Epvhall/#seaports_logistics_and_port_cities">research on B.C. ports</a>, I’d encourage the minister to make use of one more tool provided in the code: appoint an industrial inquiry commission on port skills and automation.</p>
<h2>Dockworkers and new technologies</h2>
<p>To understand the current dispute, we need to overturn <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691170817/the-box">the myth that west coast unionized dockworkers</a> have refused to accept new cargo handling technologies.</p>
<p>Since the 1960s, ports on the west coast of North America have benefited enormously from mechanization and modernization agreements, <a href="https://www.bcmeanegotiations.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Collective-Agreement-April-1-2018-to-March-31-2023.pdf">now enshrined in various collective agreements</a>. </p>
<p>In exchange for giving employers the freedom to implement technological changes — which often displace labour — employees secured a share of the resulting productivity gains in some form of compensation.</p>
<p>In the United States, this takes the form of a <a href="https://digicoll.lib.berkeley.edu/record/72012">minimum earnings guarantee</a>; in B.C. ports, full members <a href="https://summit.sfu.ca/_flysystem/fedora/sfu_migrate/3516/b14062914.pdf">receive a generous payout at retirement</a>.</p>
<p>But one result of a “jobs-for-income” agreement, in an industry where labour demand fluctuates, is a large pool of casual workers. As a result, <a href="https://www.bcmea.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BCMEA_AR2018-Digital-v4FA.pdf">not everyone working in B.C. ports is a full union member</a>: roughly two-fifths are members, one-fifth are casuals with benefits and two-fifths are casuals without benefits.</p>
<p>The prospect of being a casual employee for several years is not particularly attractive, least of all to a tradesperson or computer programmer with employment options elsewhere. </p>
<h2>Commissions have helped before</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Cargo cranes seen at a port" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=999&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=999&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=999&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gantry cranes used to load and unload cargo ships sit idle at port in Vancouver, B.C., on July 4, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Industrial commissions have helped management and union find a path out of an impasse before — even if not everyone likes what they recommend. </p>
<p>One of the original clauses in the 1963 Mechanization and Modernization Agreement stated that Vancouver-bound containers had to be filled and emptied by ILWU members. </p>
<p>Against the wishes of many union members, the container clause was eliminated on the recommendation of the <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/978222691">1987 Weiler Commission</a> and <a href="https://ilwu500.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Gainshare.pdf">replaced by a pension funding arrangement</a> to ensure ILWU members shared the resulting gains.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/in-the-matter-of-the-canada-labour-code-part-i-industrial-relations-report-of-the-industrial-inquiry-commission-into-industrial-relations-at-west-coast-ports/oclc/461336129?page=citation">1995 Jamieson and Greyell Commission</a> strongly rejected the notion that port workers be denied the right to strike — as requested by some agricultural and business interests — but it did recommend the 72-hour strike/lockout notification period now included in the Canada Labour Code.</p>
<h2>Industrial inquiry commission</h2>
<p>A commission on port automation can share information, promote understanding and make recommendations. It would examine trends in <a href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/container-port-automation-impacts-and-implications">container terminal automation</a>, as well as technology trends in non-containerized and commodity-exporting terminals.</p>
<p>It can determine the nature and extent of the skills shortage in B.C. ports and look into the adequacy of existing recruitment, retention and training systems. And it can learn from the experiences of port workers, especially casual workers and skilled tradespersons.</p>
<p>We need a new agreement between employers and employees in the B.C. ports that will allow both sides to continue to enjoy the benefits of new workplace technologies. </p>
<p>Employers will only benefit from automation if they can train, recruit for and retain the new skills that will be required. Employees will only support automation if they see a future for themselves, their families and communities in the industry. </p>
<p>An industrial inquiry commission might help tackle this challenge.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Hall receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, including funding to support research partnerships that involve the port union (<a href="http://www.sfu.ca/waterfront.html">http://www.sfu.ca/waterfront.html</a>) and shipping industry (<a href="https://greenshippingproject.com/">https://greenshippingproject.com/</a>).</span></em></p>We need a new agreement between employers and employees in the B.C. ports that will allow both sides to enjoy the benefits of new workplace technologies.Peter Hall, Professor of Urban Studies, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2050172023-05-15T00:20:29Z2023-05-15T00:20:29ZHome support work in NZ is already insecure and underpaid – automation may only make it worse<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525771/original/file-20230512-43136-ssuj49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5599%2C3732&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The number of number of people aged 65 years or older living in New Zealand is likely to hit one million by 2028, <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/one-million-people-aged-65-by-2028/">according to the latest statistics</a> – up from under 300,000 in 1980. Caring for this ageing population will become increasingly important.</p>
<p>Research has shown New Zealanders prefer to <a href="https://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/journals-and-magazines/social-policy-journal/spj27/ageing-in-place-the-views-of-older-homeowners-27-pages128-141.html">retain independence</a> for as long as possible with the help of home-based care. Yet home support workers (HSWs) – those who assist older people, as well as people with disabilities and long-term conditions – have been underpaid and underappreciated for decades. </p>
<p>This is affecting the long-term sustainability of the workforce. According to a <a href="https://workresearch.aut.ac.nz/document-library/survey-reports/latest-survey-reports/the-new-zealand-care-workforce-survey-2019-report">2019 survey</a>, over 35% of care workers were aged 55-64. Only 11% were aged 25-34. In other words, care workers are getting older too.</p>
<p>Partly to address this, care provider companies (predominantly for-profit) are introducing platform technologies – or “care apps”. The rationale is that these empower care workers, create efficiencies for cost-conscious government agencies, and offer autonomy for clients.</p>
<p>It’s been claimed automation in the homecare sector will lower overhead costs and allow for staff pay to increase. Provider companies say it will also streamline the management of timesheets, salary payment, leave applications and access to client notes.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://carecca.nz/research/care-home-support-workers-project/">research</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zbDe2s4YQE&ab_channel=CAREMassey">recently launched report</a> critically interrogates these claims, as well as the broader impact of these platform technologies on the working lives of HSWs, and their resulting ability to provide dignified care. </p>
<p>Rather than support claims of empowerment and efficiency, our interviews and focus groups with HSWs suggest the care apps, as they are currently used, are exacerbating pre-existing systemic failures. These lead to disempowering underpayment, declining professional autonomy and alarming health and safety risks.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1600521556148760578"}"></div></p>
<h2>Trust and communication</h2>
<p>Our interviewees’ experiences describe four broad themes: </p>
<p><strong>Digital frustration:</strong> a lack of input into the design of the technology affects not only worker wellbeing, but also the quality of care that can be provided. </p>
<p>For example, one participant described how sudden changes to her roster made through the app disrupt the client trust she has established over time. This affects her ability to provide tailored care based on detailed knowledge of the client’s needs and personal circumstances, as well as contributing to a feeling of having little professional autonomy or control:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Sometimes [the app] doesn’t work that well because suddenly they change your roster. So I can ring my clients I’ve had the night before and say, yep I’m coming, I’ll see you around about 10 o'clock. And then the next day suddenly your roster has changed and that person now is not on your roster.</p>
<p>You now don’t have the phone number, so you can’t ring them to say my roster’s changed, I’m not going to come now, and then they’re gonna get somebody else turn up unexpectedly.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Precarity:</strong> care apps add to the already significant burden of unpaid labour, while cementing trends towards deskilling and loss of professional autonomy. One participant described how she had to log into the app four times for a single client. Another described how she would have to phone a call centre and explain if she forgot to log in. </p>
<p>Care workers are paid per client in a piecemeal way. Rather than receiving a salary, they don’t get paid for time spent on these other activities. </p>
<p>Several participants described how the requirement to log in often interrupted their ability to provide client care, taking focus away from often urgent tasks, as well as the skilled work of building a trusting relationship.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-crisis-shows-why-new-zealand-urgently-needs-a-commissioner-for-older-people-139383">The coronavirus crisis shows why New Zealand urgently needs a commissioner for older people</a>
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<p><strong>Communication inequality:</strong> care apps (and smart phones more broadly) mean HSWs are always accessible to employers who can track their location with GPS technology. They can also add, remove and change clients with minimal notice (often causing distress to HSWs and their clients). </p>
<p>Meanwhile, participants described a lack of access to decision-makers, with local offices often having been closed and centralised into call centres. Functions for contacting managers or payroll departments through the app were often broken. As one participant said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s difficult to get through to them […] You’ll ring the call centre, ask them to do something, or you leave a message […] and it just doesn’t happen. These are huge breakdowns in communication.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Health and safety:</strong> communication inequality exposes HSWs and their clients to undue risks, made even greater in the context of COVID-19. On top of insecure working conditions during the pandemic and difficulty getting adequate personal protective equipment, HSWs lacked access to up-to-date information about the COVID status of their clients, or access to expert support during medical emergencies.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/voiceless-and-vulnerable-nzs-gig-workers-faced-more-risk-with-fewer-protections-during-the-pandemic-178747">Voiceless and vulnerable, NZ's gig workers faced more risk with fewer protections during the pandemic</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Incorporating workers’ voices</h2>
<p>According to the HSWs we interviewed, there is little recognition by their employers of the highly skilled work they do. Their valuable knowledge of the mechanics of providing care in the community has not been incorporated into the design of the care apps.</p>
<p>To ensure the new technology contributes to a sustainable workforce and to high-quality care in future, significant improvements to home care in general must be made. </p>
<p>Currently there are <a href="https://www.psa.org.nz/our-voice/crisis-in-home-support-demands-urgent-government-overhaul/">significant concerns</a> about how home care is funded, delivered and accounted for. The lack of professional control, autonomy or trust experienced by workers, as well as the piecemeal pay system, must be addressed as part of the development of care apps if they are to be truly empowering.</p>
<p>This would deliver real improvements for clients and workers. Our evidence suggests that care apps imposed on a workforce without their professional input cannot be a magic bullet that solves the long-term challenges of demographic change and systemic inefficiency.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-covid-why-we-need-a-change-in-care-home-culture-156264">After COVID: why we need a change in care home culture</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>Protecting the vulnerable</h2>
<p>Home care is complex and messy, and things can change from minute to minute. Worker and client voices should be actively incorporated in both the design and evaluation of the technology. </p>
<p>This will protect their interests and ensure the right balance is struck between privacy protection and the provision of up-to-date information on client needs. Any data that are extracted and stored must also uphold the principles of Te Tiriti o Waitangi.</p>
<p>Ensuring the voices of HSWs and their unions inform the technological parameters of their work will help prevent the worsening of their already fragile workplace conditions.</p>
<p>Ultimately, failure to ensure the sustainability of this vital workforce would be a collective failure to care for our most vulnerable people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leon Salter receives funding from MBIE/Royal Society.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Vonk has received a scholarship from the HOPE Foundation for Research on Ageing. </span></em></p>The introduction of ‘care apps’ has been sold as improving efficiency and even pay rates for homecare providers. But a new study suggests it may only be exacerbating existing problems in the industry.Leon Salter, Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for Culture-Centered Approach to Research and Evaluation, Massey UniversityLisa Vonk, Doctoral Candidate, School of Humanities, Media and Creative Communication, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2030562023-04-27T05:11:51Z2023-04-27T05:11:51ZAI will increase inequality and raise tough questions about humanity, economists warn<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521217/original/file-20230417-16-ntt3gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C2880%2C1905&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On November 30 2022, OpenAI launched the AI chatbot ChatGPT, making the latest generation of AI technologies widely available. In the few months since then, we have seen Italy <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65139406">ban ChatGPT</a> over privacy concerns, leading technology luminaries calling for <a href="https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/">a pause on AI systems development</a>, and even prominent researchers saying we should be prepared to <a href="https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/">launch airstrikes</a> on data centres associated with rogue AI.</p>
<p>The rapid deployment of AI and its potential impacts on human society and economies is now clearly in the spotlight.</p>
<p>What will AI mean for productivity and economic growth? Will it usher in an age of automated luxury for all, or simply intensify existing inequalities? And what does it mean for the role of humans?</p>
<p>Economists have been studying these questions for many years. My colleague Yixiao Zhou and I <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/joes.12422">surveyed their results</a> in 2021, and found we are still a long way from definitive answers.</p>
<h2>The big economic picture</h2>
<p>Over the past half-century or so, workers around the world have been getting <a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/129/1/61/1899422?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false">a smaller fraction</a> of their country’s total income. </p>
<p>At the same time, growth in productivity – how much output can be produced with a given amount of inputs such as labour and materials – has <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/002795011724200115">slowed down</a>. This period has also seen huge developments in the creation and implementation of information technologies and automation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-internet-has-done-a-lot-but-so-far-little-for-economic-growth-105294">The internet has done a lot, but so far little for economic growth</a>
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<p>Better technology is supposed to increase productivity. The apparent failure of the computer revolution to deliver these gains is a puzzle economists call the Solow paradox. </p>
<p>Will AI rescue global productivity from its long slump? And if so, who will reap the gains? Many people are curious about these questions.</p>
<p>While consulting firms have often painted AI as <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/digital-disruption/harnessing-automation-for-a-future-that-works/de-DE">an economic panacea</a>, policymakers are more concerned about potential job losses. Economists, perhaps unsurprisingly, take a more cautious view. </p>
<h2>Radical change at a rapid pace</h2>
<p>Perhaps the single greatest source of caution is the huge uncertainty around the future trajectory of AI technology. </p>
<p>Compared to previous technological leaps – such as railways, motorised transport and, more recently, the gradual integration of computers into all aspects of our lives – AI can spread much faster. And it can do this with much lower capital investment. </p>
<p>This is because the application of AI is largely a revolution in software. Much of the infrastructure it requires, such as computing devices, networks and cloud services, is already in place. There is no need for the slow process of building out a physical railway or broadband network – you can use ChatGPT and the rapidly proliferating horde of similar software right now from your phone.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A photo of a phone showing ChatGPT on the screen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521436/original/file-20230418-16-rydizx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521436/original/file-20230418-16-rydizx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521436/original/file-20230418-16-rydizx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521436/original/file-20230418-16-rydizx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521436/original/file-20230418-16-rydizx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521436/original/file-20230418-16-rydizx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521436/original/file-20230418-16-rydizx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unlike great technological innovations of the past, many AI tools will be instantly available to anyone with an internet connection.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is also relatively cheap to make use of AI, which greatly decreases the barriers to entry. This links to another major uncertainty around AI: the scope and domain of the impacts. </p>
<p>AI seems likely to radically change the way we do things in many areas, from education and privacy to the structure of global trade. AI may not just change discrete elements of the economy but rather its broader structure.</p>
<p>Adequate modelling of such complex and radical change would be challenging in the extreme, and nobody has yet done it. Yet without such modelling, economists cannot provide clear statements about likely impacts on the economy overall.</p>
<h2>More inequality, weaker institutions</h2>
<p>Although economists have different opinions on the impact of AI, there is general agreement among economic studies that AI will <a href="https://www.iied.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/migrate/11506IIED.pdf">increase inequality</a>. </p>
<p>One possible example of this could be a further shift in the advantage from labour to capital, weakening labour institutions along the way. At the same time, it may also reduce tax bases, weakening the government’s capacity for redistribution.</p>
<p>Most empirical studies find that AI technology <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.33.2.3">will not reduce overall employment</a>. However, it is likely to reduce the relative amount of income going to low-skilled labour, which will increase inequality across society. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-benefits-of-job-automation-are-not-likely-to-be-shared-equally-90859">The benefits of job automation are not likely to be shared equally</a>
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<p>Moreover, AI-induced productivity growth would cause employment redistribution and trade restructuring, which would tend to further increase inequality both within countries and between them.</p>
<p>As a consequence, controlling the rate at which AI technology is adopted is likely to slow down the pace of societal and economic restructuring. This will provide a longer window for adjustment between relative losers and beneficiaries. </p>
<p>In the face of the rise of robotics and AI, there is possibility for governments to alleviate income inequality and its negative impacts with policies that aim to reduce inequality of opportunity. </p>
<h2>What’s left for humans?</h2>
<p>The famous economist Jeffrey Sachs <a href="https://www.nber.org/conferences/economics-artificial-intelligence-fall-2017">once said</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>What humans can do in the AI era is just to be human beings, because this is what robots or AI cannot do.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But what does that mean, exactly? At least in economic terms? </p>
<p>In traditional economic modelling, humans are often synonymous with “labour”, and also being an optimising agent at the same time. If machines can not only perform labour, but also make decisions and even create ideas, what’s left for humans?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521214/original/file-20230417-24-gtvbnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A close up photo of an eye with a bright white halo around the pupil." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521214/original/file-20230417-24-gtvbnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521214/original/file-20230417-24-gtvbnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521214/original/file-20230417-24-gtvbnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521214/original/file-20230417-24-gtvbnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521214/original/file-20230417-24-gtvbnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521214/original/file-20230417-24-gtvbnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521214/original/file-20230417-24-gtvbnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What’s so special about humans? Economists are still working on that one.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arteum.ro / Unsplash</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The rise of AI challenges economists to develop more complex representations of humans and the “economic agents” which inhabit their models. </p>
<p>As American economists David Parkes and Michael Wellman have <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaa8403">noted</a>, a world of AI agents may actually behave more like economic theory than the human world does. Compared to humans, AIs “better respect idealised assumptions of rationality than people, interacting through novel rules and incentive systems quite distinct from those tailored for people”.</p>
<p>Importantly, having a better concept of what is “human” in economics should also help us think through what new characteristics AI will bring into an economy.</p>
<p>Will AI bring us some kind of fundamentally new production technology, or will it tinker with existing production technologies? Is AI simply a substitute for labour or human capital, or is it an independent economic agent in the economic system? </p>
<p>Answering these questions is vital for economists – and for understanding how the world will change in the coming years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203056/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yingying Lu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Here’s why economists aren’t sure about humanity’s place in an automated future.Yingying Lu, Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, and Economic Modeller, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2013392023-04-25T20:05:13Z2023-04-25T20:05:13ZA rise in self-service technologies may cause a decline in our sense of community<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519601/original/file-20230405-22-uf4pfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2500%2C1665&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Public-facing automation, like self-service kiosks, reduce the chances we have to interact with other people.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Automation, once hidden behind closed doors in factories, is increasingly moving into public view. Customers can pay for groceries or clothing at a self-checkout machine, order fast food from a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/23/mcdonalds-automated-workers-fort-worth-texas">touchscreen kiosk</a> or even pickup coffee from a “<a href="https://www.rccoffee.com/">robo-café</a>.”</p>
<p>These technologies, which substitute human contact for robot-based interactions, are examples of self-service technologies — innovative public-facing automation which “<a href="https://doi.org/10.5465/ame.2002.8951333">enable customers to perform entire services on their own without direct assistance from employees</a>.” </p>
<p>While self-service technologies have the potential to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1590982">improve efficiency</a>, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/A-Zaidan/publication/46093547_Towards_Corrosion_Detection_System/links/549239a60cf2484a3f3e0b22/Towards-Corrosion-Detection-System.pdf#page=26">reduce costs</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.5465/ame.2002.8951333">improve user experience</a>, these technologies raise complex economic and political questions. </p>
<h2>Politics and exposure</h2>
<p>Much has been written from an economic perspective about whether automation will <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/26/robots-could-take-over-20-million-jobs-by-2030-study-claims.html">eliminate jobs</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.08.003">decrease wages</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20201003">contribute to job growth</a>, or “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2022/01/19/understanding-the-impact-of-automation-on-workers-jobs-and-wages/">create as many jobs as it destroys over time</a>.” However, less attention has been given to thinking about how these technologies will affect our politics. </p>
<p>Whether these new technologies replace jobs, relegate existing positions to non-public facing roles or create new employment opportunities, they will result in us interacting with fewer people than we have historically. </p>
<p>Experiences with strangers can shape how we define our community and politics. If we no longer encounter cashiers or fast food employees, many of whom are <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/headlines/who-s-looking-out-for-tim-hortons-temporary-foreign-workers-1.1282019">temporary foreign workers</a>, will our beliefs about immigration policies or minimum wage change? What do bike couriers think about bike lanes? How does a dental office receptionist feel about universal dental care, or a corner store clerk about crime rates? </p>
<p>However fleeting, exposure to people outside of your own socio-demographic groups affect attitudes positively. Existing research demonstrates that “<a href="https://tedcantle.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/107-Pettigrew-and-Tropp-Contact-meta-analysis-2006.pdf">actual face-to-face interaction…typically reduces intergroup prejudice</a>.”</p>
<p>Exposure effects are also related to how we position ourselves within the world when compared to others. For instance, a recent South African study showed that “willingness to sign a petition that calls for higher taxes on the wealthy <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2763-1">increases in the presence of a high-status car</a>.” Just seeing a BMW 3-series car near the petitioner made people more likely to favour wealth redistributive policies.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519975/original/file-20230407-18-97k0d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a black luxury car in a parking spot" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519975/original/file-20230407-18-97k0d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519975/original/file-20230407-18-97k0d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519975/original/file-20230407-18-97k0d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519975/original/file-20230407-18-97k0d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519975/original/file-20230407-18-97k0d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519975/original/file-20230407-18-97k0d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519975/original/file-20230407-18-97k0d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A study found that people were more likely to sign a petition that called for taxing the wealthy when they were in the presence of a luxury car.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another study shows that being the victim of a crime increases political participation: “Rather than becoming withdrawn or disempowered, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000299">crime victims tend to become more engaged in civic and political life</a>.” </p>
<p>We shape our politics based, at least partially, on what and who we have been exposed to. </p>
<h2>Identity and social interaction</h2>
<p>We build our sense of civic identity and opinions about government through social interactions. Political scientist Robert D. Putnam, who has studied civic engagement since the 1960s, <a href="http://bowlingalone.com/">argues Americans are less engaged in politics</a> than they used to be and are more isolated, spending less time with friends, family and neighbours.</p>
<p>Our social capital — which Putnam defines as the <a href="https://www.socialcapitalresearch.com/putnam-on-social-capital-democratic-or-civic-perspective/">overarching belief about society that facilitates co-operation</a> — diminishes when we lose opportunities to engage with people outside of our regular social networks. </p>
<p>This decline in social capital can be traced to changes in work and society more generally. Society, in other words, is becoming increasingly individualistic.</p>
<p>Public-facing automation may further diminish our social capital by decreasing our interactions with other people. As we pay for parking at parking machines, rent bowling shoes and lanes through an app, or order food from touchscreen kiosks, we interact less with the people who work these jobs.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519976/original/file-20230407-28-pxuhcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a robot in a red waiter uniform brings a plate to a customer in a cafe" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519976/original/file-20230407-28-pxuhcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519976/original/file-20230407-28-pxuhcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519976/original/file-20230407-28-pxuhcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519976/original/file-20230407-28-pxuhcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519976/original/file-20230407-28-pxuhcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519976/original/file-20230407-28-pxuhcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519976/original/file-20230407-28-pxuhcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The future of dining out? The Gran Caffé Rappallo in Italy uses robots to serve customers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Exacerbates inequality</h2>
<p>The impact of public-facing automation on social inequality also requires further study. Self-service technologies, particularly in the food services industry, may exacerbate social inequalities by limiting job opportunities for certain groups, such as those with <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2020/study-inks-automation-inequality-0506">different educational backgrounds</a> or <a href="https://sites.law.berkeley.edu/thenetwork/2022/01/26/how-artificial-intelligence-impacts-marginalized-communities/">already-marginalized communities</a>. </p>
<p>As public-facing automation shifts workers away from public view, wages which reflect <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages">professional skill and customer service expectations</a> may disappear. In the grocery industry, for instance, we may see a widening pay gap between technicians hired to upkeep self-checkout machines and the employees hired to stock shelves.</p>
<p>The effects of increasing public-facing automation may not be well understood for years. In the meantime, as we seek to better understand the intersection between technology and society, we should ask: how will our sense of community and our political preferences change when we interact less with the people who work the jobs that self-service technologies replace?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201339/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Blake Lee-Whiting receives funding from the Policy, Elections, and Representation Lab at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy located at the University of Toronto. </span></em></p>Self-service technologies — like self-checkouts or government service kiosks — are decreasing interactions with other people. This may affect our politics and sense of community.Blake Lee-Whiting, PhD Candidate, Interim Managing Director at PEARL, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2012212023-03-07T21:19:17Z2023-03-07T21:19:17ZAmazon still seems hell bent on turning workers into robots – here’s a better way forward<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513745/original/file-20230306-1219-3pj7o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Workers at Amazon fulfilment centres are under enormous pressure.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-swansea-wales-uk-1st-september-2016-workers-pass-rows-and-rows-of-116968599.html?imageid=13E771BE-5781-41EA-9C1A-0F01A3C073DA&p=316069&pn=1&searchId=d027e7e14481635dde30dc7eb70d8566&searchtype=0">Robert Melen/Alamy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theface.com/society/meet-the-amazon-uk-workers-fighting-back-stikes-coventry">The strikes</a> by hundreds of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/28/amazon-warehouse-robots-striking-50p-pay-jeff-bezos">Amazon workers</a> at the company’s Coventry warehouse in the English Midlands have brought into relief some of the problems of work in today’s high-tech society. </p>
<p>While primarily focused on pay, the workers are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/25/the-job-is-not-human-uk-retail-warehouse-staff-describe-gruelling-work">pushing back</a> against long hours and an automated surveillance system that times how long they take to do each task, as well as going to the toilet. It all contributes to a high pressure and intensive work environment – plus more <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/feb/17/concerns-over-safety-at-amazon-warehouses-as-number-of-incidents-rise">accidents</a>. </p>
<p>We have much to learn from this painful situation about the future of work and technology. On the one hand, Amazon’s whole employment model goes against the <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/04/24/a-study-finds-nearly-half-of-jobs-are-vulnerable-to-automation">general assumption</a> that technology destroys jobs. Equally, however, the company’s employment practices show how automation can make workplaces oppressive, forcing workers to become more like robots.</p>
<p>Pessimistic predictions about the threat to jobs from technology are nothing new. One <a href="https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/the-future-of-employment/">frequently cited study</a> published in 2013 predicted that up to 47% of jobs in the US would be removed by automation over a 20-year period. Now that we’re halfway through that period, <a href="https://www.commerce.gov/news/blog/2023/02/news-unemployment-its-lowest-level-54-years">jobs in the US</a> remain plentiful and unemployment is low. Similarly, there’s <a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/rise-robots-german-labour-market">evidence from Germany</a> that the use of robots has had no effect on total employment. </p>
<p>Across the G7 as a whole, employment has been holding up well. Aside from a COVID blip, unemployment has generally been falling for the past decade in spite of automation and robotics gradually becoming more important to workplaces. The reality is that paid employment has been surviving bouts of technological progress for centuries. </p>
<p><strong>G7 unemployment rates 2005-21</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513642/original/file-20230306-28-4yvfjl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing unemployment rates across the OECD" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513642/original/file-20230306-28-4yvfjl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513642/original/file-20230306-28-4yvfjl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=295&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513642/original/file-20230306-28-4yvfjl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=295&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513642/original/file-20230306-28-4yvfjl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=295&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513642/original/file-20230306-28-4yvfjl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513642/original/file-20230306-28-4yvfjl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513642/original/file-20230306-28-4yvfjl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://data.oecd.org/unemp/unemployment-rate.htm">OECD</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the Amazon example suggests, the greater threat from technology is almost certainly to the quality of jobs. This threat should concern us in thinking about ways to use and deploy technology in workplaces now and in the future. </p>
<h2>Reimagining automation</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10551-022-05258-z">recent paper</a>, I put forward a couple of basic principles related to the aims behind automation for society as a whole. </p>
<p>Firstly, automation should help to promote more meaningful work. In discussions about the future of work, fears of job losses are often the starting point for arguing that workers’ wages will need to be replaced by a universal basic income. But this sees work as purely instrumental, pursued for income only. Work also matters for who we are and are able to become. </p>
<p>Once you recognise these intrinsic benefits to doing a job, it becomes important to see technology not as a way to eliminate work but to make it better. This means automating the least appealing aspects of work. Technology should complement labour that enlivens and enthuses workers. You can see the potential in sectors as diverse as <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/14959986.rise-robots-bringing-huge-benefits-farming/">farming</a>, where robots can replace the human toil of harvesting produce, and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2015/04/30/pricy-robots-tug-hospital-supplies.html">medicine</a>, where they can be used to transport things like medical waste around hospitals.</p>
<p>Secondly, automation should make it possible for people to spend more time away from work. This is not to contradict the idea that work is beneficial for our well-being but to recognise that a life well lived entails experiencing rewarding activities in and outside of work. Automation should make more time for us to achieve well-being in work and leisure. </p>
<h2>The reality</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, these aims are not generally the priority with technological advancement. This stems from the fact that employees have less say over its nature and direction than employers, which explains why automation makes many workers anxious. </p>
<p>When workers are given more say, the dynamic can change. Take Germany, where there is evidence that the use of robots has <a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/rise-robots-german-labour-market">actually improved</a> the chances of workers staying in employment. The presence of work councils and strong labour unions in Germany <a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/effect-new-technologies-workers-jobs-and-skills">seems to be</a> a large part of the explanation. </p>
<p>This partnership approach appears to have helped to create an environment that has protected jobs while allowing workers to upskill to adjust to technological change. It’s no coincidence that Germany has the second lowest unemployment rate in the G7. </p>
<p>Amazon has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/sep/29/amazon-us-workers-battle-unionize-second-warehouse">introducing robots</a> over the past decade to help make its warehouses more efficient too. It looks likely to scale this up in the next few years, though the company insists this is not about removing jobs. </p>
<p>Time will tell on that front, but it is hard to be confident in Amazon’s approach to technology when its workers’ interests seem so subordinate to those of the company. In tandem with the UK protests, Amazon workers in places like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/sep/29/amazon-us-workers-battle-unionize-second-warehouse">the US</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-union-warns-amazon-rolling-pre-christmas-strikes-2022-12-18/">Germany</a> have also been battling against its conditions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513737/original/file-20230306-28-a3y2nz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Workman holding a laptop next to some boiler pipes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513737/original/file-20230306-28-a3y2nz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513737/original/file-20230306-28-a3y2nz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513737/original/file-20230306-28-a3y2nz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513737/original/file-20230306-28-a3y2nz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513737/original/file-20230306-28-a3y2nz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513737/original/file-20230306-28-a3y2nz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513737/original/file-20230306-28-a3y2nz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It doesn’t need to be a disaster.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/professional-worker-modern-factory-using-laptop-1944508705">1st Footage</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Amazon <a href="https://www.etf-europe.org/amazon-has-a-european-works-council-despite-management/">did agree</a> in 2022 to form a European works council, which has worker representatives from 35 countries including the UK, and is consulted on company issues that cross borders. But the council’s operations are fairly restricted, while the company’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/sep/29/amazon-us-workers-battle-unionize-second-warehouse">general reluctance</a> to engage with unions suggest that warehouse workers are still struggling to further their interests. </p>
<p>In the end, technology will only work for workers if it is democratised. If workers and society rather than big tech companies such as Amazon are to benefit from automation, they need to have a larger <a href="https://wol.iza.org/articles/who-owns-the-robots-rules-the-world/long">influence and stake</a> in it. If this can be achieved, <a href="https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=making-light-work-an-end-to-toil-in-the-twenty-first-century--9781509548620">less and better work</a> remains the prize.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Spencer has received funding from the ESRC </span></em></p>With Amazon facing worker battles in the UK, US and Germany, no wonder people worry about how technology is changing workplaces.David Spencer, Professor of Economics and Political Economy, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1988272023-01-31T19:31:56Z2023-01-31T19:31:56ZIn a world of limited resources, low-tech solutions are the future – providing we make them more user-friendly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507068/original/file-20230130-18-wtdp0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C1007%2C660&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prototyping of a self-built stove.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photo.lowtechlab.org/picture.php?/712/category/43">Julien Lemaistre/Low-tech Lab</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Semiconductors for electric vehicles have been in <a href="https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/supply-chain-chip-shortage">short supply since 2020</a>. The causes are multiple, including water shortages in producing countries and increasingly high-tech models in Europe.</p>
<p>Could this be the opportunity to rethink our reliance on these technologies? Indeed, we are facing a paradox. In response to the ecological crisis, we tend to favour high-tech solutions, even though they increase the pressure on living environments, take a long time to implement, and are often produced in poor working conditions. In a world of limited resources, it is therefore appropriate to question our view of technology as the go-to-solution to environmental challenges.</p>
<p>So-called <em>appropriate technologies</em> are those that are less complex, consume fewer resources, and have the least possible negative impact at a human and environmental level. They are one avenue of technical frugality to explore. This approach is becoming increasingly credible, with the emergence of a <a href="https://librairie.ademe.fr/cadic/6916/demarches_low-tech-rapport_publicv2.pdf">structured ecosystem in France</a> and its inclusion in one of the government’s plan to reach <a href="https://transitions2050.ademe.fr/generation-frugales">carbon neutrality by 2050</a>.</p>
<h2>A technological change but also a human one</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://hal.science/hal-03598528">study we conducted among experts in France</a>, we propose to define appropriate technologies as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“A set of objects, services and practices whose design is constrained by the need to care for humans and the environments of production/use of which they are part.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>We also sought to identify the characteristics that would help define the appropriate technology approach. These include a renewal of design methods, a psychological transformation, user empowerement, a tendency to favour de-automation, as well as a taste for radical usefulness and technical sustainability.</p>
<p>These characteristics reveal that appropriate technologies are not defined solely by a difference in technical intensity with high-techs, but rather by a global approach that also includes strong human and social dimensions. Since, in France, the appropriate-technology movement was popularised and developed by engineers, human factors are still rarely taken into account or are limited to the question of social acceptability. Their impact on the organisation of work, ease of use issues and the way they change the satisfaction of human needs remain to be explored.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507374/original/file-20230131-12-gb670b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507374/original/file-20230131-12-gb670b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507374/original/file-20230131-12-gb670b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507374/original/file-20230131-12-gb670b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507374/original/file-20230131-12-gb670b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507374/original/file-20230131-12-gb670b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507374/original/file-20230131-12-gb670b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507374/original/file-20230131-12-gb670b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Infographics representing the eight characteristics of appropriate technologies and their definition.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Barriers to use</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://librairie.ademe.fr/cadic/6916/demarches_low-tech-rapport_publicv2.pdf">recent report</a>, France’s ecological transition agency <a href="https://www.ademe.fr/en/frontpage/">Ademe</a> identifies four barriers to the deployment of appropriate technologies: regulatory, cultural, economic and semantic. What’s missing are usability barriers.</p>
<p>Theoretical models of technology acceptance – models that explain the factors that drive technology adoption – emphasise that the quality of interaction between users and artefacts can be a major barrier. Indeed, they identify utility and usability as significant determinants of technology use. In the case of appropriate technologies, they seem all the more important. </p>
<p>To identify these obstacles in more details, <a href="https://hal.science/hal-03206053">we conducted a study</a> on the public’s representations. It was done in partnership with the <a href="https://lowtechlab.org/en">Low-tech Lab</a>, an association that aims to disseminate the appropriate technology approach. (In French, the term “low-techs” is commonly used to refer to “appropriate technologies”; the equivalent of the Low-tech Lab in the US would be the <a href="https://www.ncat.org">NCAT</a>.) As conditions for the transition to appropriate technologies, those surveyed saw the following factors as being important: their accessibility, the ability to use them autonomously, and the need for a psychological change, which confirms the importance of the obstacles related to use.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507067/original/file-20230130-14-fmvzo7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507067/original/file-20230130-14-fmvzo7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507067/original/file-20230130-14-fmvzo7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507067/original/file-20230130-14-fmvzo7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507067/original/file-20230130-14-fmvzo7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507067/original/file-20230130-14-fmvzo7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507067/original/file-20230130-14-fmvzo7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507067/original/file-20230130-14-fmvzo7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The public’s representations of appropriate technologies based on a textual analysis. In addition to technical issues, appropriate technologies must respond to a societal transition issue. To make this transition toward the wider use of appropriate technologies, the participants mainly identify obstacles related to accessibility and ease of use.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To go further, in <a href="https://hal.science/hal-03716402">another study</a>, we categorised the problems faced by users (actual and potential) of appropriate technologies.</p>
<h2>Recommendations for appropriate technologies designers</h2>
<p>In total, 14 categories of problems appear, such as performance, usefulness, pleasure, production/installation, know-how, safety and legal compliance.</p>
<p>These and others stem from two main factors. First, appropriate technologies require more user involvement than conventional technologies. They’re less automated and less digital, as the user takes over much of what is currently handled by automation or standardised industrial processes. These can be compensated for by, for example, making the unusual parts of the device with which the user must interact clearly visible and understandable.</p>
<p>Furthermore, appropriate technologies sometimes have a rudimentary/makeshift aspect. In a perspective of empowerment, but also of environmental sustainability, appropriate technologies are not necessarily manufactured and installed by professionals. This can have consequences on their safe use, the understandability of their functioning, and other aspects.</p>
<p>This is why we have formalised <a href="https://hal.science/hal-03716402">seven design recommendations</a> to allow those making appropriate technologies to become aware of these usability issues and thus avoid them. Our goal was to guide practitioners on the aspects related to the interaction between humans and appropriate technologies, while remaining in line with the appropriate technology “philosophy”. If some recommendations tackle the right level of technical intensity to propose, others aim at facilitating their use.</p>
<h2>Changing the way we design technologies and interactions</h2>
<p>While appropriate technologies appear relevant for addressing the ecological and social transition, the “human” obstacles to their wider adoption are not only caused by “mental representation” issues but also by concrete questions of use (accessibility, usability, etc.) that require us to think about technical sobriety in terms of user experience.</p>
<p>Other obstacles exist as well. For example, designers may not be inclined to design appropriate technologies, because this approach calling for “technological discernment” is not the classic way for them to showcase their skills or those of their companies.</p>
<p>In recent years, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652617305528">many</a> <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09537325.2021.1914834">studies</a> have tried to shed light on the appropriate technology approach. Let us however remain <a href="https://doi.org/10.46692/9781529213294">modest</a>. It will not be possible, nor desirable, to “solve” all user-experience problems. Indeed, appropriate technologies invite us to accept a measure of “friction”, to take time, to question needs and choose priorities. In short, they invite us not to reproduce the design practices that have contributed to the current environmental crisis.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was co-written with Antoine Martin, PhD in human factors/ergonomics and cofounder of Sentier Ergonomie.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198827/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clément Colin co-founded a research agency that provides advice, research and training on appropriate technologies.</span></em></p>The deployment of low-tech requires taking into account the human factor and changing design practices.Clément Colin, Doctorant en ergonomie, Université de LorraineLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1933012022-10-27T01:16:50Z2022-10-27T01:16:50ZDrone delivery is a thing now. But how feasible is having it everywhere, and would we even want it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492012/original/file-20221027-23886-7u3iex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C238%2C2982%2C2007&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wing</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In recent years, cafes, supermarkets and online shops have started to trial drone delivery in a handful of locations around the world. More than a <a href="https://builtin.com/drones/drone-delivery-companies">dozen drone delivery companies</a> are now running such trials.</p>
<p>Just this week, Wing (owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet) announced a partnership with Australian supermarket giant Coles to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-26/qld-supermarket-drone-delivery-available-gold-coast-/101573808">deliver small items via drone to customers close to a Gold Coast supermarket</a>. Wing is already operating in parts of Canberra and Logan, Queensland. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VOFxsFhEXoU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Given the technical success of various trials so far, it is worth exploring whether drone delivery might become mainstream and can actually be scaled up geographically.</p>
<p>As you would expect, the answer is “it depends”. There are many issues when considering drones around people, such as safety and infrastructure. For example, a recent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-30/food-delivery-drone-lands-on-power-lines-qld-browns-plains/101489670">crash of a delivery drone on electricity lines</a> in a suburb of Logan left thousands without power.</p>
<p>There is also potential <a href="https://theconversation.com/drones-to-deliver-incessant-buzzing-noise-and-packages-116257">unwanted noise</a> and visual pollution, and a perceived issue around privacy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/privatising-the-sky-drone-delivery-promises-comfort-and-speed-but-at-a-cost-to-workers-and-communities-166960">Privatising the sky: drone delivery promises comfort and speed, but at a cost to workers and communities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Safety first</h2>
<p>Adding potentially dozens of small aircraft to the sky above our homes, workplaces and roads each day is a serious business. As you would hope, currently the operation of commercial drones is a highly regulated undertaking in most countries. </p>
<p>In Australia, the Civil Aviation Safety Authority <a href="https://www.casa.gov.au/drones/industry-initiatives/drone-delivery-services">has strict regulations</a> that aim to make the operation of drones as safe as possible. They also <em>prohibit</em> drone use if the craft can’t be used safely in a given situation.</p>
<p>In fact, Australia was one of the first countries to have drone regulations. For example, you cannot fly a drone close to an airport, or directly over people.</p>
<p>Commercial operators of drones are acutely aware of this and gain a licence to operate – it is not in anyone’s interest to operate unsafely, and it would be bad for business.</p>
<h2>A limited geographic market – for now</h2>
<p>To satisfy the requirement of operating drones safely, delivery operators focus on flying drones over unpopulated land, generally very low-density areas, and in particular the urban fringe. These are newer suburbs where drone flight paths can be planned to eliminate or minimise safety issues, such as an unexpected crash. </p>
<p>It is no coincidence Wing has been running drone delivery trials in low-density areas of Southeast Queensland, and outer <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6009932/wings-delivery-drone-service-gets-the-green-light/">Canberra suburbs</a>. These places are ideal for drone delivery and a great place to continue to develop this business, even if the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-11/wing-resumes-drone-deliveries-after-raven-attacks/100689690">odd bird attack can disrupt things</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1442603431672225796"}"></div></p>
<p>But drone delivery in dense parts of major cities? This is very unlikely in the medium term, due to extreme difficulty in safely operating drones in dense suburbs.</p>
<p>If you live in an apartment building, where would the delivery take place? On the roof? Maybe, if your building was set up for it. This is where scaling up faces the largest difficulties, and the logistics of running potentially hundreds of drones from a distribution centre become truly challenging.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MaJ-bKP8LpQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Zipline and Walmart team up for drone delivery.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, if there was a high demand for it, and the right investments were made, it is feasible that drone delivery to dense city areas could be achieved.</p>
<p>But just because it might be technically possible, doesn’t mean it <em>will</em> happen. The long-term business case would need to make sense, of course. But there is a more critical issue in the near term – the <a href="https://ethics.org.au/ethics-explainer-social-license-to-operate/">social licence to operate</a>.</p>
<h2>A social licence</h2>
<p>A social licence is not an official thing, a government body does not issue one. It is more about whether the general public accepts and supports the new thing.</p>
<p>At the end of the day, this social acceptance is what often determines the success or failure of widespread uptake of new technology, such as delivery drones. </p>
<p>Take nuclear power, for example. Many countries have nuclear power and the public there seem happy with that. Other countries had a social licence for nuclear power and lost it, such as Japan. In Australia we do not have a social licence for nuclear power, but that does not mean we won’t gain it in the future. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-divestments-to-protests-social-licence-is-the-key-33576">From divestments to protests, social licence is the key</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A social licence is an ever-evolving construct based on the pros and cons of a technology, all of which is influenced by its perceived value. Most people are now seemingly comfortable to be tracked 24 hours a day by their smartphones, as they believe the benefits outweigh the potential negative impacts.</p>
<p>It is likely we already have a solid social licence to use drones to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41591-022-00053-9">deliver emergency life-saving medicine</a> to people in need. In a potential life-or-death situation like that, it is easy to see that normally the benefits outweigh any risks or inconvenience to others.</p>
<p>But delivering a coffee or a tube of toothpaste by drone? I think the social licence for that is up for grabs. At this point in time, it could go either way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Roberts is Director of the Australian Cobotics Centre, the Technical Director of the Advanced Robotics for Manufacturing (ARM) Hub, and is a Chief Investigator at the QUT Centre for Robotics. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He was the co-founder of the UAV Challenge - an international drone competition.</span></em></p>In a few Australian suburbs, a cup of coffee or toothpaste can now arrive via the air. But that doesn’t mean drones are going to be widespread – for now.Jonathan Roberts, Professor in Robotics, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1830682022-07-28T19:42:22Z2022-07-28T19:42:22ZRather than threaten jobs, artificial intelligence should collaborate with human writers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475303/original/file-20220721-19-sh02bn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4813%2C3406&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Professional writers may be threatened by artificial intelligence's ability to generate text.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Sept. 2020, <em>The Guardian</em> published an opinion piece written by a program. The artificial intelligence, called GPT-3, is a large language model developed by OpenAI, and it posed a bold question in the headline of its machine-generated text: “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/08/robot-wrote-this-article-gpt-3">A robot wrote this entire article. Are you scared yet, human?</a>” </p>
<p>Indeed, it is a scary time to be a professional writer. Earlier in 2020, Microsoft <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/30/21275524/microsoft-news-msn-layoffs-artificial-intelligence-ai-replacements">laid off journalists to replace them with a writing AI</a>. And as AI language models get increasingly better, researchers are claiming that soon, AI-generated text will be indistinguishable from that written by a person.</p>
<p>Our research team at the University of British Columbia investigated what the rise of AI means to human writers. Specifically, we tried to understand what human writers expect from AI, and where the boundaries lie when it comes to writing work.</p>
<p>We interviewed seven hobbyists and 13 professional writers, using a design fiction approach. We first showed the writers different speculative designs of futuristic AI writers. We then asked them to reflect on how co-writing with an AI would transform their practice and perception of writing.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3532106.3533506">We found that writers wanted AIs to respect the personal values they attribute to writing</a>. These personal values being: emotional values and productivity.</p>
<h2>Emotions and productivity</h2>
<p>Hobbyists in our study said they find joy in the writing process, referring to the act of writing as a “labour of love.” When considering scenarios where using AI would make them more productive, hobbyists weren’t interested in using the advanced writing technology if it displaced what it means to be a writer.</p>
<p>The writers attributed three different kinds of emotional values to writing. Some writers wanted to claim ownership over the words they wrote and were concerned that co-writing with an AI meant that the text wouldn’t be considered entirely their own. Other writers attributed a sense of integrity to the act of writing, and said using AI would be “like cheating.” Others just enjoyed the process of turning their ideas into words.</p>
<p>By contrast, for professional writers, writing was means of living. If it could make them more prolific, they were open to using AI writers and assigning parts of their job to the robot writers. The professional writers envisioned themselves using AI as a ghostwriter who could realize their ideas into written pieces. To some extent, professional writers were willing to compromise their emotional values in exchange for productivity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475296/original/file-20220721-14-6lucqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a human hand and a robot hand rest on a keyboard" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475296/original/file-20220721-14-6lucqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475296/original/file-20220721-14-6lucqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475296/original/file-20220721-14-6lucqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475296/original/file-20220721-14-6lucqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475296/original/file-20220721-14-6lucqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475296/original/file-20220721-14-6lucqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475296/original/file-20220721-14-6lucqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Professional writers were more open to using AI to help them write if it meant being able to increase their productivity, and therefore their income.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some writers trusted that AI would do a good job in simple writing tasks like making stylistic improvements, rephrasing and proofreading. But they didn’t have much faith in AI’s capacity for creative writing tasks, such as planning a narrative flow and setting up the backgrounds of key characters in the story.</p>
<p>When presented with other speculative scenarios, writers would agree to outsource writing tasks only when their trust in AI supersedes their own self-confidence.</p>
<h2>A good ghostwriter</h2>
<p>Our study implies an ideal AI writing tool should behave like a human collaborator and that such a tool needs to be aware of the boundaries of human writers and respond by adjusting the level of intervention and writing style accordingly.</p>
<p>Writing with AI can leave writers with energy and time for the creative side of the writing process. Ideally, our entrepreneurial drive would not <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/the-new-poem-making-machinery">completely displace humans from our creative endeavours</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183068/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dongwook Yoon received funding from the NSERC Discovery Grant and CREATE programs, as well as the KEIT grant sponsored by the Korean government (MOTIE, No. 20009940).</span></em></p>Artificial intelligence can generate text much quicker and cheaper than professional human writers. Soon, AI will have the capacity to produce text that is indistinguishable from a human writer.Dongwook Yoon, Assistant Professor, Computer Science, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1859572022-06-29T19:56:36Z2022-06-29T19:56:36ZSo this is how it feels when the robots come for your job: what GitHub’s Copilot ‘AI assistant’ means for coders<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471517/original/file-20220629-24-n3q489.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5562%2C3705&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/female-programmer-typing-source-codes-coffee-705197296">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I love writing code to make things: apps, websites, charts, even
<a href="https://benswift.me/livecoding/">music</a>. It’s a skill I’ve worked hard at for
more than 20 years. </p>
<p>So I must confess <a href="https://github.blog/2022-06-21-github-copilot-is-generally-available-to-all-developers/">last week’s news</a>
about the release of a new “AI assistant” coding helper called <a href="https://copilot.github.com">GitHub Copilot</a> gave me complicated feelings.</p>
<p>Copilot, which spits out code to order based on “plain English” descriptions, is a remarkable tool. But is it about to put coders like me out of a job?</p>
<h2>Trained on billions of lines of human code</h2>
<p><a href="https://github.com/features/copilot/#faq-human-oversight">GitHub</a> (now <a href="https://news.microsoft.com/2018/06/04/microsoft-to-acquire-github-for-7-5-billion/">owned by Microsoft</a>) is a collaboration platform and social network for coders. You can think of it as something like a cross between Dropbox and Instagram, used by everyone from individual hobbyists through to highly paid software engineers at big tech companies. </p>
<p>Over the past decade or so, GitHub’s users have uploaded tens of billions of lines of code for more than 200 million apps. That’s a lot of <code>if</code>s and <code>for</code>s and
<code>print("hello world")</code> statements.</p>
<p>The Copilot AI works like many other machine learning tools: it was “trained” by scanning through and looking for patterns in those tens of billions of lines of code written and uploaded by members of GitHub’s coder community.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471504/original/file-20220629-18-u21rpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screenshot of computer code produced by Copilot." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471504/original/file-20220629-18-u21rpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471504/original/file-20220629-18-u21rpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471504/original/file-20220629-18-u21rpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471504/original/file-20220629-18-u21rpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471504/original/file-20220629-18-u21rpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471504/original/file-20220629-18-u21rpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471504/original/file-20220629-18-u21rpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Copilot produces code from instructions in plain English (the pale blue text).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://github.com/features/copilot/">GitHub</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The training can take many months, hundreds of millions of dollars in computing equipment, and enough electricity to run a house for a decade. Once it’s done, though, human coders can then write a description (in plain English) of what they want their code to do, and the Copilot AI helper will write the code for them.</p>
<p>Based on the <a href="https://openai.com/blog/openai-codex/">Codex “language model”</a>, Copilot is the next step in a long line of “intelligent auto-completion” tools. However, these have been far more limited in the past. Copilot is a significant improvement.</p>
<h2>A startlingly effective assistant</h2>
<p>I was given early “preview” access to Copilot about a year ago, and I’ve been using it on and off. It takes some practice to learn exactly how to frame your requests in English so the Copilot AI gives the most useful code output, but it can be startlingly effective.</p>
<p>However, we’re still a <em>long</em> way from “Hey Siri, make me a million dollar iPhone app”. It’s still necessary to use my software design skills to figure out what the different bits of code should do in my app. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1539594049753153536"}"></div></p>
<p>To understand the level Copilot is working at, imagine writing an essay. You can’t just throw the essay question at it and expect it to produce a useful, well-argued piece. But if you figure out the argument and maybe write the topic sentence for each paragraph, it will often do a pretty good job at filling in the rest of each paragraph automatically. </p>
<p>Depending on the type of coding I’m doing, this can sometimes be a huge time- and brainpower-saver.</p>
<h2>Biases and bugs</h2>
<p>There are some open questions with these sorts of AI coding helper tools. I’m a bit worried they’ll introduce, and reinforce, winner-takes-all dynamics: very few companies have the data (in this case, the billions of lines of code) to build tools like this, so creating a competitor to Copilot will be challenging. </p>
<p>And will Copilot itself be able to suggest new and better ways to write code and build software? We have seen AI systems <a href="https://www.wired.com/2016/03/two-moves-alphago-lee-sedol-redefined-future/">innovate</a> before. On the other hand, Copilot may be limited to doing things the way we’ve always done them, as AI systems <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/ai-biased-how-scientists-trying-fix/">trained on past data</a> are prone to do.</p>
<p>My experiences with Copilot have also made me very aware my expertise is still needed, to check the “suggested” code is actually what I’m looking for. </p>
<p>Sometimes it’s trivial to see that Copilot has misunderstood my input. Those are the easy cases, and the tool makes it easy to ask for a different suggestion. </p>
<p>The trickier cases are where the code looks right, but it may contain a subtle bug. The bug might be because this AI code generation stuff is <em>hard</em>, or it might be because the billions of lines of human-written code that Copilot was trained on contained bugs of their own. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1539731632931803137"}"></div></p>
<p>Another concern is <a href="https://fossa.com/blog/analyzing-legal-implications-github-copilot/">potential issues</a> about licensing and ownership of the code Copilot was trained on. GitHub has said it is <a href="https://github.com/features/copilot/#faq-human-oversight">trying to address these issues</a>, but we will have to wait and see how it turns out.</p>
<h2>More output from the same input</h2>
<p>At times, using Copilot has made me feel a little wistful. The skill I often think makes me at least a <em>little bit</em> special (my ability to write code and make things with computers) may be in the process of being “automated away”, like many other jobs have been at different times in human history. </p>
<p>However, I’m not selling my laptop and running off to live a simple
life in the bush just yet. The human coder is still a crucial part of the system, but as curator rather than creator.</p>
<p>Of course, you may be thinking “that’s what a coder <em>would</em> say” … and you may be right. </p>
<p>AI tools like Copilot, OpenAI’s <a href="https://openai.com/blog/gpt-3-apps/">text generator GPT-3</a>, and Google’s <a href="https://imagen.research.google">Imagen text-to-image engine</a>, have seen huge improvements in the past few years.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/robots-are-creating-images-and-telling-jokes-5-things-to-know-about-foundation-models-and-the-next-generation-of-ai-181150">Robots are creating images and telling jokes. 5 things to know about foundation models and the next generation of AI</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Many in white-collar “creative industries” which deal in
text and images are starting to wrestle with their fears of being (at least partially) automated away. Copilot shows some of us in the tech industry are in the same boat.</p>
<p>Still, I’m (cautiously) excited. Copilot is a force multiplier in the most optimistic tool-building tradition: it provides more leverage, to increase the useful output for the same amount of input. </p>
<p>These new tools and the new leverage they provide are embedded in wider systems of people, technology and environmental actors, and I’m really fascinated to see how these systems reconfigure themselves in response. </p>
<p>In the meantime, it might help save my brain juice for the hard parts of my coding work, which can only be a good thing.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/artificial-intelligence-is-now-part-of-our-everyday-lives-and-its-growing-power-is-a-double-edged-sword-169449">Artificial intelligence is now part of our everyday lives – and its growing power is a double-edged sword</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185957/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>As mentioned in the article, I was given early beta access to the GitHub copilot AI tool.</span></em></p>A new AI tool that writes computer code on demand has programmers considering their future.Ben Swift, Educational Experiences team lead (Senior Lecturer), ANU School of Cybernetics, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1810172022-04-24T14:02:45Z2022-04-24T14:02:45ZCompanies are mitigating labour shortages with automation — and this could drastically impact workers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458963/original/file-20220420-22-3lmahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C20%2C4516%2C3241&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The pandemic and the aging population are both partially responsible for the current labour shortage.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last month, unemployment in Canada reached a record low of <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canada-s-jobless-rate-has-hit-a-record-low-1.5853649">5.2 per cent</a>. Alongside low unemployment, many industries saw — and are still seeing — a worker shortage, with the number of job vacancies in Canada reaching 900,000 in January.</p>
<p>Both of these things are good for workers, right? </p>
<p>Prospective employers, desperate for new recruits, are “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/hiring-incentives-labour-shortage-1.6296609">throwing cash at applicants</a>.” Many lower wage jobs have even seen an <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/costofliving/the-price-of-food-is-going-up-maybe-your-salary-should-too-1.6388201/want-a-raise-now-is-the-perfect-time-to-ask-for-it-career-experts-say-1.6403924">increase in pay</a>, like the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/walmart-raises-pay-to-attract-truck-drivers-11649336400">20 per cent wage increase</a> for truckers recently announced by Walmart.</p>
<p>The pandemic is partially responsible for this labour shortage, as the immigrant workforce supply dried up throughout the lockdown. However, the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/2021/11/07/labour-shortage-the-answer-is-to-bring-older-adults-back-into-the-workforce.html">aging population</a> in Canada has also been a factor.</p>
<h2>Is automation the answer?</h2>
<p>The solution to the worker shortage proposed by the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/job-skills-shortage-1.6409237">Business Development Bank of Canada’s chief economist</a> is <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220119005323/en/Survey-Reveals-Businesses-Are-Doubling-Down-on-Automation-to-Balance-Against-the-Global-Labor-Shortage">increased automation</a>. </p>
<p>Advocates and critics have long argued over the impact of automation on employment. Advocates believe automation can be used to perform <a href="https://www.finance-monthly.com/2021/11/automating-the-mundane-how-it-solutions-can-rescue-staff-from-needlessly-repetitive-time-intensive-tasks/">mundane</a> or <a href="https://www.automate.org/blogs/how-robots-are-taking-on-the-dirty-dangerous-and-dull-jobs">physically demanding</a> jobs, freeing up workers to learn new skills and take on better jobs.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3812">research from the University of Pennsylvania</a> supports the argument that automation creates jobs. The study found that investing in robots boosted the efficiency and quality of work while reducing costs, increasing productivity and creating more job opportunities. Similarly, a 2020 report from Statistics Canada also found that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-robot-revolution-is-here-how-its-changing-jobs-and-businesses-in-canada-155267">companies that used robots hired more human workers</a>.</p>
<p>The impact of automation on work can only be assessed over the longer term and according to whether vacancies are created by those leaving their jobs or retiring and whether the activities of those departing are fully automated. </p>
<p>But critics have argued that automation and advancements in technology create an <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803095946632">hourglass economy</a> where opportunities only exist for highly and lowly skilled workers, leaving less work for semi-skilled workers who must either increase their skills or take <a href="https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2014/08/The-Changing-Shape-of-the-UK-Job-Market.pdf">lower-skilled (and waged) work</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A building in an empty parking lot that says BLOCKBUSTER across the front" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458915/original/file-20220420-11-ip0gfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458915/original/file-20220420-11-ip0gfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458915/original/file-20220420-11-ip0gfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458915/original/file-20220420-11-ip0gfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458915/original/file-20220420-11-ip0gfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458915/original/file-20220420-11-ip0gfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458915/original/file-20220420-11-ip0gfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Netflix automated the video rental business while Blockbuster retained its physical labour-intensive model until it was too late.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A common example used to illustrate the detriment of technology to employment is the case of <a href="https://hbr.org/2017/04/automation-makes-things-cheaper-so-why-doesnt-it-feel-that-way">Blockbuster</a>. Once a titan of physical video rental with 60,000 employees, Blockbuster was unable to compete with Netflix’s (who only had around 2,500 employees) new streaming services and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/how-netflix-almost-lost-the-movie-rental-wars-to-blockbuster.html">filed for bankruptcy in 2010</a>. Netflix automated the video rental business while Blockbuster retained its physical labour-intensive model until it was too late.</p>
<h2>Automation might not be so bad after all</h2>
<p>The reason why automation hasn’t had a more detrimental impact for workers can be explained by two factors. Firstly, employees are also consumers. To reduce employment is to reduce the market for products, which is bad for <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/raising-minimum-wage-boost-economic-recovery-reduce-taxpayer-subsidization-low-wage-work/">manufacturers and capitalism itself</a>. </p>
<p>As a management professor, I often use an incident that supposedly occurred between <a href="https://www.economist.com/babbage/2011/11/04/difference-engine-luddite-legacy">Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther</a>, leader of the United Automobile Workers trade union, to illustrate this point. </p>
<p>While showing Reuther the new automated assembly lines at his car factory, Ford subtly threatened the future of the union: “How are you going to get those robots to pay your union dues?” Unfazed, Reuther replied: “How are you going to get them to buy your cars?” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two huge robotic arms sitting in a large, empty garage" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458961/original/file-20220420-15105-hp4bir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458961/original/file-20220420-15105-hp4bir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458961/original/file-20220420-15105-hp4bir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458961/original/file-20220420-15105-hp4bir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458961/original/file-20220420-15105-hp4bir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458961/original/file-20220420-15105-hp4bir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458961/original/file-20220420-15105-hp4bir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">RoboTire patented robotic systems use software to automatically change vehicle tires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Rick Osentoski/AP Images for RoboTire)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Secondly, firms can easily resolve issues with new technology by employing human workers to take over. Take for example, the failure of automation in the fast food industry and the tale of <a href="https://hbr.org/2021/11/automation-doesnt-just-create-or-destroy-jobs-it-transforms-them">Flippy, the burger flipping robot</a>, that lasted a single day, only to be replaced by human workers when it couldn’t keep up with demand. Such instances reveal the way in which workers offer an easy substitute for automation that fails to cut the mustard (or flip the burger).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-has-fuelled-automation-but-human-involvement-is-still-essential-153715">COVID-19 has fuelled automation — but human involvement is still essential</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The current situation is different because employers are struggling to source workers. The reliance on automation is becoming a necessity, rather than a source of competitive advantage. Moreover, the labour shortage means that turning to workers as a substitute for failing technology is a less viable strategy, so firms are more likely to persevere in introducing new technology. </p>
<h2>The future of automation</h2>
<p>It has been argued that about half of the activities undertaken by workers could be <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/%7E/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/Digital%20Disruption/Harnessing%20automation%20for%20a%20future%20that%20works/MGI-A-future-that-works-Executive-summary.ashx">automated by 2055</a>. This does not mean that all of these activities will be automated. Nor does it mean that 50 per cent of jobs will necessarily disappear in the next 30 years without other jobs emerging as a result. </p>
<p>However, current circumstances, especially the shortage of workers, is a powerful motivation for automation. We could see a significant increase in automation use in the workplace over the next few years. </p>
<p>The challenges of filling worker vacancies may be good news for workers now, but the longer terms consequences still remain to be seen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geraint Harvey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With employers struggling to hire enough workers, reliance on automation is becoming more of a necessity than just a source of competitive advantage.Geraint Harvey, DANCAP Private Equity Chair in Human Organization, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1744132022-01-06T11:37:35Z2022-01-06T11:37:35ZmRNA vaccines, asteroid missions and collaborative robots: what to watch in science in 2022 – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439486/original/file-20220105-27-10kwh1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=84%2C42%2C5515%2C3690&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">mRNA vaccines: not just for COVID.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/uk-lab-scientist-biotechnologist-holding-glass-1881778573">Cryptographer/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>From new mRNA vaccines to space missions and developments in robotic automation, in this episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly</a> we talk to three experts about some scientific advances they’re watching out for in 2022. And we speak to an economist about trends in global inequality and whether it will get worse or better this year.</p>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/60087127b9687759d637bade/61d5bb6096b6b00013ea98e8" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="190px"></iframe>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-561" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/561/4fbbd099d631750693d02bac632430b71b37cd5f/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We start our 2022 science preview with vaccines. Scientists have been working on the mRNA technology behind the COVID-19 vaccines developed by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna for more than three decades. After its success at protecting people from severe COVID disease, researchers and drug companies are pushing ahead with trials of genetic-based vaccines for other diseases and conditions. </p>
<p>Deborah Fuller is a professor of microbiology at the School of Medicine University of Washington in the US and an expert in mRNA and DNA vaccines. She explains that not only can these kinds of vaccines induce an antibody response to fight off viruses, but they can also launch another type of immune response using our body’s T-cells. Fuller says this discovery “prompted additional thinking about how we could use this technology not just for infectious diseases, but also for immunotherapy of chronic infectious diseases or cancers”. </p>
<p>As researchers wait for the results of clinical trials on these vaccines, Fuller predicts the next big breakthrough could come in an mRNA vaccine for influenza. But, longer term, she thinks a universal or pan-vaccine could be on the horizon that protects against multiple strains of influenza or coronavirus in one shot.</p>
<p>From vaccines we head to outer space for a look at some of the missions planned for 2022 with Monica Grady, professor of planetary and space sciences at the Open University in the UK. In March, NASA will get its programme to send humans back to the Moon by 2024 underway with the launch of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/around-the-moon-with-nasa-s-first-launch-of-sls-with-orion/">Artemis I</a>, an important test of its new Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft. </p>
<p>Grady is also excited about the August launch of a NASA mission to Psyche, an M-class asteroid made of metal. “We’ve never been close to an M-class asteroid before,” she says, explaining that its composition should be similar to the core of the Earth. Soon after, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-we-really-deflect-an-asteroid-heading-for-earth-an-expert-explains-nasas-latest-dart-mission-172603">Dart mission</a> should arrive at the asteroid Didymos and its moonlet Dimorphos, to test what it would take to push an asteroid off a collision course with Earth in the future. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/asteroids-the-moon-and-mars-space-missions-to-look-forward-to-in-2022-174188">Asteroids, the Moon and Mars: space missions to look forward to in 2022</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Back on Earth, Teresa Vidal-Calleja, associate professor at the Robotics Institute and the University of Technology Sydney in Australia looks ahead to what developments in robotics might be around the corner. She expects there will be improvements in the way robots perceive the world in 3D, “working not only with images, but with other types of sensors”. She also expects more “cobots” – robots working in collaboration with humans in areas such as manufacturing, rather than just repeating repetitive tasks. This requires a lot more sensors but also algorithms that can predict the future so the robots can get better at making decisions. </p>
<p>Moving away from science in the final part of this episode, we speak to economist Carlos Gradín about the state of global inequality at the start of 2022. Gradín is a research fellow at the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research in Helsinki in Finland, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-inequality-may-be-falling-but-the-gap-between-haves-and-have-nots-is-growing-159825">he studies trends in global inequality</a>. “We will see a lot of inequality in the recovery from the pandemic,” predicts Gradín. “Some projections indicate that, in general, advanced economies were affected the most, but they will also recover faster than low-income countries,” he says. </p>
<p>And Naomi Schalit, senior politics and society editor at The Conversation in Boston in the US, gives us some recommended reading to mark the first anniversary of the attack on the Capitol in Washington DC. </p>
<p>This episode of The Conversation Weekly was produced by Mend Mariwany and Gemma Ware, with sound design by Eloise Stevens. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/?hl=en">theconversationdotcom</a> or <a href="mailto:podcast@theconversation.com">via email</a>. You can also sign up to <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter?utm_campaign=PodcastTCWeekly&utm_content=newsletter&utm_source=podcast">The Conversation’s free daily email here</a>.</p>
<p>Newsclips in this episode are from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LQ-0VEJeMQ">Sky News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enxNSinY4NQ">European Space Agency</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0OUvEh3HWk">NA</a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgmRAV8HNKE">SA</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBlEokdBA_4">CBS Evening News</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wgBoPJep5o">Al Jazeera English.</a> </p>
<p><em>You can listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a>, or find out how else to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">listen here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174413/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah Fuller is co-founder of Orlance, Inc, a biotechnology company developing a needle free technology to deliver RNA and DNA vaccines. She also serves as a scientific advisor for HDT Bio, a biotechnology company developing RNA vaccines for COVID19 and other infectious diseases and scientific advisor for Abacus, Inc., a biotechnology company developing cancer vaccines. She receives funding supporting basic and translational research in RNA and DNA vaccines from the National Institutes of Health. Monica Grady is chancellor of Liverpool Hope University and a senior research fellow at London's Natural History Museum. She receives funding from Science and Technology Facilities Council and the UK Space Agency. Teresa Vidal-Calleja has received funding from the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Discovery Program and Industrial Transformation Research Program, Meat and Livestock Australia, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Innovative Manufacturing Cooperative Research Centre and form industry and university partners. She is board member of the Australian Robotics and Automation Association. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carlos Gradín does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointments.</span></em></p>Experts give us a science preview for 2022, plus what lies in store for global inequality. Listen to The Conversation Weekly podcast.Daniel Merino, Assistant Science Editor & Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationGemma Ware, Editor and Co-Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1669602021-10-04T04:20:44Z2021-10-04T04:20:44ZPrivatising the sky: drone delivery promises comfort and speed, but at a cost to workers and communities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424118/original/file-20211001-18-kz3xmc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2000%2C1119&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wing</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Drone delivery company <a href="https://wing.com/en_au/">Wing</a> recently celebrated 100,000 deliveries with an unusual <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/25/alphabet-wing-drones-delivered-10000-cups-of-coffee-in-the-last-year.html">burst</a> of <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/25/22640833/drone-delivery-google-alphabet-wing-milestone">media</a> <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90669760/alphabet-wing-drones-chicken-delivery">fanfare</a>. Australia is at the forefront of Wing’s plans, with the company’s two biggest trial sites running in Canberra and Logan in Queensland.</p>
<p>Wing tells a simple story of barista coffee and roast chooks dropped on your driveway at a moment’s notice. Short on Vegemite for the kids’ brekky? Hop on the app, order, and a drone will lower a new jar to your doorstep before the toast is cool. All quick, contactless, and COVID-safe. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4xrCuPACmq8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>But the real story is much more complex. Drone delivery at scale will transform the skies, change expectations for speedy delivery, and hide the labour that makes it possible.</p>
<p>Owned by Alphabet, the parent company of Google, Wing has huge resources. New drone regulations are already being written, and Wing is setting itself up to be the backbone of a new aerial infrastructure.</p>
<h2>How Wing works</h2>
<p>Wing operates much like many app delivery platforms. After signing up, customers use the smartphone app to place their orders. Orders are then packed at local base stations and flown to their destinations by Wing’s drones. On arrival, the packages are lowered to customers by winch, automatically detaching from the drone before it returns to the base station.</p>
<p>Unlike the hobby drones you might see above parks and beaches, Wing’s delivery drones can operate out of the operator’s line of sight. Flight is fully autonomous, with one pilot monitoring several flights at once and able to take over or land if necessary. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424127/original/file-20211001-19-15vta70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A promotional video shows a Wing delivery drone in action.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wing</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How that will scale up in volume and frequency isn’t clear. So far, the trial sites in Canberra and Logan offer clear and uncomplicated airspace and a flat, regular urban environment. </p>
<p>For customers, all this promises a swift, seamless and contactless experience. </p>
<p>Deloitte’s <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/economic-benefit-analysis-of-drones-to-australia-final-report.pdf">economic modelling on the drone industry</a> in Australia notes that drones enable further automation of work. But behind every promise of “autonomous” or “automated” technology are <a href="https://reallifemag.com/potemkin-ai/">hidden human workers</a>. </p>
<h2>Whose labour does it save?</h2>
<p>One of Wing’s major promises is unbelievably fast delivery on demand. Wing boasts an average delivery time of roughly 10 minutes. Their quickest time recorded – from order placement to product in hand – is <a href="https://wing.com/en_au/how-it-works/">2 minutes and 47 seconds</a>. </p>
<p>This is a remarkable acceleration in the pace and expectation of delivery. Ordinary mail might take days or weeks, but thanks to the “<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbescommunicationscouncil/2018/02/22/what-the-amazon-effect-means-for-retailers/?sh=768479f12ded">Amazon effect</a>” private delivery services have already <a href="https://theconversation.com/coles-and-woolworths-are-moving-to-robot-warehouses-and-on-demand-labour-as-home-deliveries-soar-166556">shifted expectations</a> from next-day to same-day and now even one or two hours. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424142/original/file-20211001-25-43001e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Fully autonomous’ delivery is only made possible by hidden human labour.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wing</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While Wing’s drones are autonomous, the service still relies on human labour. Pilots monitor flight paths, packers parcel up the products, and maintenance staff take care of the hardware and software. All of these workers must perform to satisfy the 10 minute delivery time. </p>
<p>Amazon warehouses and food delivery apps have shown us how such punishing timelines can be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/feb/05/amazon-workers-protest-unsafe-grueling-conditions-warehouse">dangerous for worker safety</a> and devastating for morale. For precariously employed or gig economy workers, missing targets can mean <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uber-fired-algorithm">instant termination</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/they-track-our-every-move-why-the-cards-were-stacked-against-a-union-at-amazon-159531">'They track our every move': why the cards were stacked against a union at Amazon</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>And the repercussions of 10-minute delivery may spread beyond Wing. If consumer expectations change, rival delivery companies (who may not be using automated drones) will feel pressure to keep pace.</p>
<p>Deloitte modelling from 2020 suggests drone delivery could cost less than half the current rate of an e-bike delivery. In the Canberra trial, some products at least are delivered for the same as in-store prices. How those delivery costs will be distributed between Wing, businesses, workers and customers once the pilot programs are over, however, is unclear — but if the likes of UberEats are anything to go by, it may well end up being businesses and especially delivery workers who carry most of the cost.</p>
<h2>Closing the sky</h2>
<p>Drone delivery may also have hidden environmental costs. Keeping cars and trucks off the road might <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02411-5">cut energy consumption</a>, but mining lithium for batteries and supplying <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/14614448211017887">energy for data centres</a> may reduce or eliminate those gains.</p>
<p>Getting sandwiches via drone could also mean more packaging and waste, as well as potential risks to birds and habitats from heavy aerial traffic. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424352/original/file-20211003-14-k8pkf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ravens in Canberra have taken to attacking Wing’s delivery drones.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAshKROIjtQ">Ben Roberts / YouTube</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But a bigger question for the public is about the skies above our heads. Do we want to live under a cloud of drones? </p>
<p>At present, most of the time people are free to enjoy the skies above their homes and communities. Kids can fly kites and enthusiasts can fly their own drones. Drone delivery risks privatising a new layer of that common space, and handing it over to Alphabet and others. </p>
<h2>Building the legal and technical architecture to control the skies</h2>
<p>To privatise a new part of the sky, Australia’s drone regulations will have to change. The current rules are highly restrictive, built from a patchwork of international, federal and state laws developed primarily for aeroplanes.</p>
<p>Apart from hobbyists with constant line of sight, operating in limited times and places, each drone use requires explicit permission from the <a href="https://www.casa.gov.au/drones/industry-initiatives/drone-delivery-systems">Civil Aviation Safety Authority</a>. </p>
<p>New commercial applications are pushing this system beyond breaking point. They often require operation beyond visual line of sight, near populated areas, in a broad range of conditions, and without constant pilot supervision. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424165/original/file-20211001-27-4kj7uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A worker waits to attach a delivery to a drone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wing</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Bouyed by economic modelling from Deloitte suggesting the drone industry could be worth around $15 billion by 2040 (with e-commerce and deliveries making up about $600 million), the Australian government is pushing to modernise drone regulation. This means reappraising rules around environmental impacts, noise, safety, insurance, security and privacy.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/aviation/technology/files/attachment-a-ris-amend-regs-5-august-2021.pdf">resulting changes</a> will benefit different companies and business models. For example, more flexible noise standards will benefit commercial applications like delivery. This means the big question is how different stakeholders are influencing the development of these new laws. </p>
<h2>Capturing the standards for unmanned traffic management</h2>
<p>Alongside <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/aviation/technology/files/national-emerging-aviation-technologies-policy-statement.pdf">new regulations</a>, new digital infrastructures are being developed to manage increasingly congested and “automated” skyways. </p>
<p>Wing is heavily involved, providing a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-29/alphabet-jumps-into-drone-air-traffic-control-with-flight-app">flight planning and safety app</a> for drone operators, a system for remote drone identification, and an “<a href="https://wing.com/en_au/unmanned-traffic-management/">unmanned traffic management</a>” service. </p>
<p>Owning the broader traffic management system is clearly part of the long-term business strategy. As Google has shown with its Android operating system, building infrastructure (even if it’s open source) can create a real commercial advantage. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-age-of-drones-has-arrived-quicker-than-the-laws-that-govern-them-47024">The age of drones has arrived quicker than the laws that govern them</a>
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<p>Wing’s approach fits neatly with the Australian government’s desire for a market-based strategy to develop and implement its <a href="https://www.casa.gov.au/drones/industry-initiatives/digital-platform">first unmanned traffic management system</a> over the next 5 years. The trial programs in Canberra and Logan will help the company develop more comprehensive skyway traffic platforms that will govern airspace safety, communications standards, data management, and everything else needed to keep autonomous aerial commerce ticking over. </p>
<p>Policymakers know commercial development of communication infrastructure creates competition risks. However, they may not have the tools and expertise to enforce equal and fair access to skyway infrastructure. </p>
<p>And at present, the fundamental question of whether we <em>want</em> drone deliveries crowding our sky at all is completely off the table.</p>
<h2>Taking flight</h2>
<p>As we have seen with the likes of Uber and Airbnb, reining in tech companies once they are already running is hard. With Australia modernizing its aviation laws, Wing is well positioned to protect its agenda and make itself essential to future evolutions of the law. </p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic is also helping companies like Wing to accelerate their agenda, as they can promise less congestion, less consumer mobility, and less social contact. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coles-and-woolworths-are-moving-to-robot-warehouses-and-on-demand-labour-as-home-deliveries-soar-166556">Coles and Woolworths are moving to robot warehouses and on-demand labour as home deliveries soar</a>
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<p>While city skies crowded with delivery drones might be far away, the groundwork is being laid right now. Communities, businesses and workers need to be a much bigger part of the process of deciding if they want that future. </p>
<p>Getting sushi delivered by drone for lunch might seem like a neat idea, but the real price may have little to do with what gets charged to your card.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Richardson receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jake Goldenfein is supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making & Society. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thao Phan is employed in the ARC Centre of Excellence on Automated Decision-Making & Society</span></em></p>Drone delivery company Wing is out to transform the sky – and Australia is at the forefront of its plans.Michael Richardson, Senior Research Fellow, UNSW SydneyJake Goldenfein, Senior Lecturer, The University of MelbourneThao Phan, Research Fellow, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1664712021-09-22T12:59:27Z2021-09-22T12:59:27ZYour driver-assist system may be out of alignment… with your understanding of how it works<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422495/original/file-20210921-17-1y97clo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C4000%2C2652&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Advanced driver-assist systems can lull drivers into taking their hands off the wheel and eyes off the road when they shouldn't.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jayuny/32070962248">Jakob Härter/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.motortrend.com/features/adaptive-cruise-control/">Adaptive cruise control</a>, <a href="https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/what-is-highway-driving-assist-and-how-does-it-work">lane change assistance</a>, <a href="https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/collision-avoidance-system">collision avoidance</a>, <a href="https://www.motortrend.com/features/blind-spot-monitoring/">blind spot monitoring</a>, <a href="https://www.automotive-technology.com/articles/the-world-of-autopilot-in-automotives">autopilots</a>: These are just a few of the driver-assist features that are arriving in new cars. As technology races ahead with the aim of making driving safer, drivers are left with the daunting task of figuring out how it all works. </p>
<p>Many dealerships offer car buyers a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3141%2F2660-02">brief orientation</a> to these advanced driver-assist technologies. The glovebox manual, now thicker than ever, provides many of the technical details. But as car technology continues to advance, scientists are making important discoveries about the human side of the equation, particularly what happens when drivers are asked to perform familiar driving tasks in new ways. </p>
<p>This aspect of new cars is seldom discussed during orientations or covered in manuals. Here are some findings about using advanced driver-assist technologies that every driver should know. </p>
<h2>Staying alert</h2>
<p>A recent study that <a href="https://aaafoundation.org/understanding-the-impact-of-technology-do-advanced-driver-assistance-and-semi-automated-vehicle-systems-lead-to-improper-driving-behavior/">observed new car owners</a> during their first month of ownership found that drivers paid close attention as they acquired a sense of what their driver-assist systems can and cannot do. But by the end of the month, many drivers began to allow their attention to drift from the road in uncomplicated driving situations - seemingly impossible-to-get-wrong scenarios such as open stretches of highway. </p>
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<span class="caption">The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration is investigating a series of crashes involving Teslas hitting emergency vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TeslaCrashUtah/135a0ad365bc49db8376c2238c305377/photo">South Jordan Police Department via AP</a></span>
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<p>It may sound harmless enough, but here’s the catch: While an open stretch of road seems safe to a human, it can sometimes push the car’s computer vision system to its limits and beyond.</p>
<p>That’s why the federal government opened an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-feds-are-investigating-teslas-autopilot-and-what-that-means-for-the-future-of-self-driving-cars-166307">investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot driver-assist technology</a> after 11 Teslas being operated on Autopilot smashed into police cars and firetrucks that had their emergency lights flashing.</p>
<p>Computers don’t see and understand the world as humans do. Sure, today’s artificial intelligence systems can beat the world’s greatest chess masters, but they can also miss a flashing firetruck that’s sitting right in front of them. We humans draw upon a powerful and flexible commonsense understanding of the world. Our <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-ai-expert-explains-why-its-hard-to-give-computers-something-you-take-for-granted-common-sense-165600">cars possess nothing like that</a>. They know the world as data compiled from video footage. </p>
<p>With that in mind, how do you know when to relax and when to be nervous while using a driver-assist system? The short answer is that you don’t.</p>
<p>The hazard detection systems in your new car are designed for those rarest of occasions in which something eludes your watchful eye. But studies of drivers tell us that, after a time, many begin to rely on these systems as more than a backup. One recent study documented that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2021.106348">drivers looked at the road less often</a> and focused their attention on non-driving areas more often while using Tesla’s Autopilot system. </p>
<p>Without even realizing it, and slowly over time, simply knowing that a backup system exists can coax people into letting down their guard. In the most extreme cases, listening for an alarm to sound can become some people’s primary means of detecting a hazard. So instead of having two entities watching the road, it’s down to one.</p>
<h2>Shared driving is hard work</h2>
<p>Maybe you are the type of driver who commits yourself to paying attention at all times, no matter how capable your car may seem. It turns out that watching a computer drive your car is harder than it looks. </p>
<p>What seems like a leisurely activity at first can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1518%2F001872008X312152">oddly tiring</a>. It’s hard to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0018720813495280">keep your mind focused</a> on what’s happening in front of you - especially <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2013.04.003">along familiar routes</a> and when all is going as expected. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080%2F17470214808416738">Prolonged sitting and staring</a>, waiting for improbable disaster to strike, is not something that humans are naturally good at. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Drivers apparently asleep behind the wheel of Teslas is practically a genre of viral video.</span></figcaption>
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<p>It’s hard to imagine ever pushing an autopilot button and taking a nap like those drivers you’ve <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/tesla-driver-caught-on-camera-apparently-asleep-at-the-wheel-68543557694">seen on the evening news</a>, but here is where misunderstanding strikes again. Did these drivers plan to take a nap or did it just happen? </p>
<p>To find out, researchers in another study outfitted drivers with brain and vision monitoring systems and found that drivers who used the autopilot were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sleep/zsz067.192">more likely to drift into early stages of sleep</a> without ever realizing it. Today’s busy schedules can cause a great many people to <a href="https://sleepeducation.org/cdc-americans-sleep-deprived/">accumulate sleep debt</a>. People tend to fight off that sleep debt by staying busy. But pushing a button and freeing yourself from the activity of driving may give that lurking sleepiness an opportunity to catch up and overtake you. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 110,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<h2>Literal and figurative blind spots</h2>
<p>Your new rearview camera seems like a lifesaver. It allows you to see into your worst blind spot. But a study of drivers using these cameras found something unsettling. Having the cameras prompts many drivers to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2015.11.030">skip the traditional over-the-shoulder checks</a>. What these drivers generally don’t realize is that back-over crashes unfold over time and often begin to the side of a car. For example, kids can run out of a house and around the back of a car to say goodbye to the driver. </p>
<p>When you swivel your head around to the back in addition to checking the camera, you see it all. You can catch the beginning and the middle of these unfolding events, and then ensure a safe ending. But among a population of drivers who may not understand this, another study estimated that rearview cameras only <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2017.1317758">reduce back-over crashes by about 17%</a> despite largely eliminating the rear blind spot.</p>
<h2>A new kind of driver training</h2>
<p>Driver assistance systems are powerful tools that promise to save a great many lives, but they will require people to adjust their understanding of a familiar driving task to align with one that is new and different in important ways. The challenge is getting everyone to make that adjustment, and there are 250 million drivers in the U.S. alone. </p>
<p>My colleagues and I have pushed for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1555343419830901">standardized training</a> for new car buyers that includes the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/2830565">human element of partially automated driving</a>. Part of the challenge is having to approach drivers with some fairly counterintuitive ideas. </p>
<p>Imagine suggesting to someone that they don’t understand the difference between a safe situation and a dangerous one, or that they really don’t know when they are tired, or that watching a car drive itself is more tiring than driving. For many drivers, this advice might not sink in when they first use driver-assist technologies. It may take some profound and personal reconsideration of what you think you know.</p>
<p>And what about the youngest drivers, the ones who account for a <a href="https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuries-deaths-relation-driver-age-united-states-2014-2015/">disproportionate number of crashes</a>? More than a decade after <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/High-schools-curb-driver-s-ed-as-interest-dies-3287757.php">driver education was virtually eliminated</a> from high school curricula, along came smartphones, apps and now driver-assist technologies. It might be a good time to start teaching some new safety concepts, in the classroom if not behind the wheel of a car. </p>
<p>For now, after you’ve learned to push the buttons and interpret the displays in your new car, keep in mind that there is more to using these technologies than meets the eye.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166471/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Casner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tesla crashes and the investigations that follow generate a lot of headlines, but the dangers of automotive automation are industrywide. The common denominator is the human behind the wheel.Steve Casner, Research Psychologist, NASALicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1665562021-08-27T02:27:01Z2021-08-27T02:27:01ZColes and Woolworths are moving to robot warehouses and on-demand labour as home deliveries soar<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418178/original/file-20210827-17674-1vu1zes.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C3%2C2367%2C1591&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Woolworths</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As lockdowns continue across Australia, many households are doing something they may not have considered just 18 months ago: ordering groceries online. </p>
<p>Australia’s supermarket duopoly, Coles and Woolworths, have raced to implement new technology and transform labour arrangements to keep up with <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/woolworths-takes-lion-s-share-in-online-groceries-20200708-p55a9a">the e-grocery boom</a>.</p>
<p>Both are investing in “smart” warehousing and distribution systems with various degrees of automation, as well as making extensive use of app-driven gig workers for grocery picking and delivery via platforms such as Uber and Airtasker.</p>
<p>My research suggests a reimagining of the Australian supermarket is currently underway. And where Coles and Woolworths go, others will follow: the pair are Australia’s largest private-sector employers, and their current moves seem likely to speed up the trend towards on-demand and precarious labour.</p>
<h2>Teaming up with big tech</h2>
<p>When the pandemic hit Australia in March 2020, Coles and Woolworths were quickly overwhelmed. Unprecedented demand for home delivery caused massive <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/grocery-deliveries-delayed-as-online-shopping-soars-20200309-p5483v">delays</a>, and online services were paused for five weeks to prioritise shoppers with special needs. </p>
<p>Both supermarket giants have since partnered with food delivery platforms to solve the “last mile” problem of home delivery using a precarious, on-demand network of delivery drivers. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-boosting-the-big-tech-transformation-to-warp-speed-138537">The coronavirus pandemic is boosting the big tech transformation to warp speed</a>
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<p>This week <a href="https://insideretail.com.au/business/woolworths-partners-with-uber-to-bring-groceries-to-your-door-202108">Woolworths formalised a deal with Uber</a>, trialled in 2020, to provide one-hour delivery from selected Metro stores in Sydney and Melbourne. Woolworths staff will pick and pack the order and hand it off to an Uber driver. These drivers, and on-demand couriers <a href="https://mhdsupplychain.com.au/2020/04/22/coles-and-woolworths-return-to-normal-home-delivery-services/">Sherpa and Drive Yello</a>, are already delivering to thousands of Woolworths customers every week.</p>
<p>For Coles, partnerships with the on-demand economy predate the pandemic and have only grown more important. In 2017, <a href="https://www.airtasker.com/coles/">Coles quietly teamed up with Airtasker</a>, encouraging shoppers to put their grocery list up for auction and have gig workers bid each other down to win the job. </p>
<p>Coles also released a “<a href="https://www.itnews.com.au/news/coles-quietly-expands-uber-eats-deliveries-to-essentials-like-bread-milk-netflix-522212">Netflix and Chill essentials</a>” range for delivery via UberEats in 2019, spanning ice cream, biscuits and other snacks. These partnerships suggest a strategy for restructuring labour relations was already under way before the pandemic. </p>
<h2>The supermarket personal shopper</h2>
<p>Inside the supermarket a growing number of “personal shoppers” can be found picking and packing orders for home delivery. </p>
<p>Some are employed by Coles or Woolworths, and they wheel around a multi-tiered workstation complete with scanner gun, measuring scales, and touch screen. Software determines the most efficient way to pick multiple orders at once and dictates the worker’s route through the store, which items to pick, what bag to put them in, and how long it should take. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/3-ways-algorithmic-management-makes-work-more-stressful-and-less-satisfying-166030">3 ways 'algorithmic management' makes work more stressful and less satisfying</a>
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<p>Other “personal shopping” is done by plain-clothed gig workers, perhaps working through Airtasker on their mobile phone, who are indistinguishable from other shoppers. </p>
<h2>Global tech companies shake up the warehouse</h2>
<p>Demand for online grocery shopping has also accelerated Coles and Woolworths’ development of fully or semi-automated warehouses coordinated by “smart” management systems. Both supermarkets are working with global tech companies to develop <a href="https://mhdsupplychain.com.au/2020/02/17/coles-and-woolworths-introduce-highly-automated-fulfilment-centres/">billion-dollar, state-of-the-art warehouses</a>, with some scheduled to open as soon as next year. </p>
<p>With UK software and robotics company Ocado, Coles is developing two data-driven “customer fulfillment centres” in Melbourne and Sydney, scheduled to open in 2022. Autonomous picking robots will retrieve items for human workers who, for now, are better able to scan goods and pack them for delivery. </p>
<p>The system is underpinned by the <a href="https://mhdsupplychain.com.au/2019/03/26/coles-partners-with-ocado-to-introduce-robot-driven-grocery-platform/">Ocado Smart Platform</a>: end-to-end software, apps and technology to manage online grocery demand. </p>
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<span class="caption">Ocado’s army of picking robots delivers items to human workers for scanning and packing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ocado</span></span>
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<p>Woolworths is pursuing a slightly different strategy of “<a href="https://mhdsupplychain.com.au/2020/10/08/woolworths-rolls-out-us-micro-fulfilment-technology-in-melbourne/">micro-fulfillment</a>”, which involves smaller and more centrally located warehouses for faster home delivery. </p>
<p>These are hybrid warehouse-supermarket facilities developed by US company Takeoff Technologies. They cannibalise floor space in a retail store to incorporate a small warehouse with vertical racking, automation, and picking robots. As in the Ocado model, the robots retrieve items for workers to pack and deliver. </p>
<p>Two of these facilities are already up and running, with the second <a href="https://insideretail.com.au/sectors/woolworths-commissions-dark-estore-in-maroochydore-202108">opening this week</a> on Queensland’s Sunshine Coast. </p>
<h2>Traditional warehouses begin to close</h2>
<p>These are just two of the new automated systems designed to replace traditional warehouses. The closure of existing warehouses will result in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-23/woolworths-automation-will-eliminate-700-jobs/12385292">the loss of thousands of (mainly unionised) jobs</a>. It is currently unclear if retrenched workers will be redeployed to automated sites, which will still require large numbers of workers to function. </p>
<p>Recent research led by sociologist Tom Barnes found that when unionised warehouse workers are retrenched due to automation, they are likely to continue working in warehousing, but in <a href="https://www.unitedworkers.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Automation-Job-Loss-Insecure-Work-report-UWU-and-ACU.pdf">more insecure arrangements and for less pay</a>. Put simply, when unionised jobs are lost, they are not recreated elsewhere. </p>
<h2>The hidden labour of grocery home delivery</h2>
<p>Online grocery shopping is promoted as an important measure for limiting contact between people and reducing the spread of COVID-19. However, this highlights the question of who gets to stay home and who continues to work, potentially putting themselves at risk. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/pandemic-exposes-stark-divide-between-suburbs-facing-covid-19-exposure-20210823-p58law.html">Mapping of exposure sites across suburbs</a> shows clear class divides between those who can work from home and order in, and those who cannot. Last year, as much as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-19/workplace-coronavirus-transmission-in-victoria-in-aged-care/12470704">80% of COVID-19 transmission</a> in Victoria took place in insecure workplaces among precarious workers. </p>
<p>On-demand labour services require a stratified and unequal labour force, whereby some families outsource domestic labour to others. This outsourcing may provide an overall benefit, but it depends on workers who have been denied secure work or government assistance. By necessity, these people do the work deemed too risky by others. </p>
<h2>The smart supermarket of tomorrow</h2>
<p>Advances in technology and automation are not wiping out supermarket jobs but changing them. Fantasies of “lights-out” fully automated warehouses and <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/amazon-drone-delivery-prime-air">drone deliveries</a> are unlikely to become reality when a growing pool of precarious workers are available to do the work.</p>
<p>Coles and Woolworths are not straightforwardly outsourcing labour to the on-demand economy. Instead, they are bringing multiple forms of labour into their distribution networks. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/6-challenges-of-being-a-gig-worker-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-164446">6 challenges of being a gig worker during the COVID-19 pandemic</a>
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<p>Precarious workers and the more securely employed (often members of unions) work side by side in the complex labour process of grocery home delivery. Coles and Woolworths can shift risk and responsibility onto gig workers when needed, while maintaining control of the entire distribution network. This ability to outsource risk and keep control is not a new high-tech development, but a fixture of capitalist labour relations. </p>
<p>Partnerships with the on-demand economy and global tech companies suggest a reimagining of the Australian supermarket is currently underway. Although the supermarket may appear fixed and banal, it is an important social institution which is always changing and being renegotiated. </p>
<p>What will these changes mean for Coles and Woolworths, and for the rest of us? In the absence of organised labour resistance or government intervention, the trend towards an on-demand and precarious workforce seems likely to continue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166556/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Kelly receives funding from the Australian Research Council for research on which this article is based.
Lauren Kelly works with United Workers Union which has members in the supermarket supply chain. </span></em></p>The pandemic home-delivery boom is driving a push to automation and precarious work by Australian supermarkets.Lauren Kate Kelly, PhD Candidate, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1575742021-08-09T19:17:48Z2021-08-09T19:17:48ZRobots are coming for the lawyers – which may be bad for tomorrow’s attorneys but great for anyone in need of cheap legal assistance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413984/original/file-20210730-21-nlw7em.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=104%2C166%2C6835%2C4452&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sign on the dotted line.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/robot-assisting-person-in-filling-form-royalty-free-image/949223252">AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine what a lawyer does on a given day: researching cases, drafting briefs, advising clients. While technology has been nibbling <a href="https://www.rocketlawyer.com/">around the edges</a> of the legal profession for some time, it’s hard to imagine those complex tasks being done by a robot.</p>
<p>And it is those complicated, personalized tasks that have led technologists to include lawyers in a broader category of jobs that are considered <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90221230/these-jobs-are-safe-from-being-replaced-by-automation">pretty safe</a> from a future of advanced robotics and artificial intelligence.</p>
<p>But, as we discovered in a recent research collaboration to analyze legal briefs using a branch of artificial intelligence <a href="https://www.ibm.com/cloud/learn/machine-learning">known as machine learning</a>, lawyers’ jobs are a lot less safe than we thought. It turns out that you don’t need to completely automate a job to fundamentally change it. All you need to do is automate part of it.</p>
<p>While this may be bad news for tomorrow’s lawyers, it could be great for their future clients – particularly those who have trouble affording legal assistance. </p>
<h2>Technology can be unpredictable</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3811710">research project</a> – in which we collaborated with computer scientists and linguists at <a href="https://www.mitre.org/">MITRE</a>, a federally funded nonprofit devoted to research and development – was not meant to be about automation. As <a href="https://law.uoregon.edu/people/faculty/tippett">law</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TBORAN0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">professors</a>, we were trying to identify the text features of successful versus unsuccessful legal briefs.</p>
<p>We gathered a small cache of legal briefs and judges’ opinions and processed the text for analysis.</p>
<p>One of the first things we learned is that it can be hard to predict which tasks are easily automated. For example, citations in a brief – such as “Brown v. Board of Education 347 U.S. 483 (1954)” – are very easy for a human to pick out and separate from the rest of the text. Not so for machine learning software, which got tripped up in the blizzard of punctuation inside and outside the citation.</p>
<p>It was <a href="http://captcha.net/">like those “Captcha” boxes</a> you are asked to complete on websites to prove you’re not a robot – a human can easily spot a telephone pole, but a robot will get confused by all the background noise in the image.</p>
<h2>A tech shortcut</h2>
<p>Once we figured out how to identify the citations, we inadvertently stumbled on a methodology to automate one of the most challenging and time-consuming aspects of legal practice: legal research.</p>
<p>The scientists at MITRE used a methodology called “graph analysis” to create visual networks of legal citations. The graph analysis enabled us to predict whether a brief would “win” based on how well other briefs performed when they included a particular citation.</p>
<p>Later, however, we realized the process could be reversed. If you were a lawyer responding to the other side’s brief, normally you would have to search laboriously for the right cases to cite using an expensive database. But our research suggested that we could build a database with software that would just tell lawyers the best cases to cite. All you would need to do is feed the other side’s brief into the machine. </p>
<p>Now we didn’t actually construct our research-shortcut machine. We would need a mountain of lawyers’ briefs and judicial opinions to make something useful. And <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/science.aba6914">researchers like us</a> do not have free access to data of that sort – even the government-run database <a href="https://pacer.uscourts.gov">known as PACER</a> charges by the page. </p>
<p>But it does show how technology can turn any task that is extremely time-consuming for humans into one where the heavy lifting can be done at the click of a button. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large room is full of women sitting at tables and using sewing machines to make garments, while a woman is standing, in 1937" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415035/original/file-20210806-25-rj1ujo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415035/original/file-20210806-25-rj1ujo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415035/original/file-20210806-25-rj1ujo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415035/original/file-20210806-25-rj1ujo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415035/original/file-20210806-25-rj1ujo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415035/original/file-20210806-25-rj1ujo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415035/original/file-20210806-25-rj1ujo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sewing machines didn’t replace seamstresses but they changed the job considerably.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndustrialRevolutionILGWU1937/ceeafed42dd3455abf90c2043843e292/photo?Query=sewing%20AND%20machine&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=283&currentItemNo=4">AP Photo/Clarence Hamm</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A history of partial automation</h2>
<p>Automating the hard parts of a job can make a big difference both for those performing the job and the consumers on the other side of the transaction.</p>
<p>Take for example, a <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=0c-8AAAAIAAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false">hydraulic crane</a> or a power <a href="https://patents.google.com/patent/US1826489A">forklift</a>. While today people think of operating a crane as manual work, these powered machines were considered labor-saving devices when they were first introduced because they <a href="https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.156473/page/n7/mode/2up">supplanted the human power</a> involved in moving heavy objects around. </p>
<p>Forklifts and cranes, of course, didn’t replace people. But like automating the grind of legal research, power machines multiplied the amount of work one person could accomplish within a unit of time. </p>
<p>Partial automation of sewing machines in the <a href="https://archive.org/details/fatigueefficien00gold">early 20th century</a> offers another example. By the 1910s, women working in textile mills were no longer responsible for sewing on a single machine – as you might today on a home sewing machine – but wrangling an industrial-grade machine with 12 needles sewing 4,000 stitches per minute. These machines could automatically perform all the fussy work of hemming, sewing seams and even stitching the “<a href="https://archive.org/details/fatigueefficien00gold">embroidery trimming of white underwear</a>.” Like an airline pilot flying on autopilot, they weren’t sewing so much as monitoring the machine for problems.</p>
<p>Was the transition bad for workers? Maybe somewhat, but it was a boon for consumers. In 1912, women perusing the Sears mail order catalog had a choice between “drawers” with premium <a href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=njp.32101066804939&view=1up&seq=214&skin=2021&q1=embroidered">hand-embroidered</a> trimming, and a much cheaper machine-embroidered option.</p>
<p>Likewise, automation could help reduce the cost of legal services, making it more accessible for the <a href="https://www.justice.gov/archives/atj">many individuals</a> who can’t afford a lawyer. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mpFjxbiMnME?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Legal scholar Miriam Cherry discusses workplace automation with Elizabeth Tippett.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>DIY lawyering</h2>
<p>Indeed, in other sectors of the economy, technological developments in recent decades have enabled companies to shift work from paid workers to customers. </p>
<p><a href="https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2013/04/from-touch-displays-to-the-surface-a-brief-history-of-touchscreen-technology/2/">Touchscreen technology</a>, for example, enabled airlines to install check-in kiosks. Similar kiosks are almost everywhere – in parking lots, gas stations, grocery stores and even fast-food restaurants.</p>
<p>At one level these kiosks are displacing paid labor by employees with unpaid labor by consumers. But that argument assumes that everyone could access the product or service back when it was performed by an employee. </p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>In the context of legal services, the many consumers who can’t afford a lawyer are already <a href="https://www.amacad.org/publication/access-what">forgoing their day in court</a> altogether or handling legal claims on their own – often with <a href="https://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/plr/vol43/iss4/1/">bad results</a>. If partial automation means an overwhelmed legal aid lawyer now has time to take more clients’ cases or clients can now afford to hire a lawyer, everyone will be better off.</p>
<p>In addition, tech-enabled legal services can help consumers do a better job of representing themselves. For example, the federal district court in Missouri <a href="https://www.moeb.uscourts.gov/esr-electronic-self-representation">now offers</a> a platform to help individuals filing for bankruptcy prepare their forms – either on their own or with a free 30-minute meeting with a lawyer. Because the platform provides a head start, both the lawyer and consumer can make better use of the 30-minute time slot.</p>
<p>More help for consumers may be on the way – there is a <a href="https://techindex.law.stanford.edu/">bumper crop</a> of tech startups jostling to automate various types of legal work. So while our research-shortcut machine hasn’t been built, powerful tools like it may not be far off. </p>
<p>And the lawyers themselves? Like factory and textile workers armed with new power tools, they may be expected to do more work in the time they have. But it should be less of a grind. It might even free them up to meet with clients.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research cited in this article was produced in collaboration with MITRE, a federally funded non-profit devoted to research and development in the public interest.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlotte Alexander receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Lawyers were thought to be mostly immune from the coming AI revolution, but two legal experts explain why jobs that rely on human ingenuity can still be affected.Elizabeth C. Tippett, Associate Professor of Law, University of OregonCharlotte Alexander, Associate Professor of Law and Analytics, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1641622021-08-05T02:08:01Z2021-08-05T02:08:01ZHow AI can help choose your next career and stay ahead of automation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414705/original/file-20210805-27-hp2yh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C20%2C1994%2C1556&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rawpixel / Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The typical Australian will change careers <a href="https://www.acap.edu.au/blog/update-your-qualifications-or-switch-careers/">five to seven times</a> during their professional lifetime, by some estimates. And this is likely to increase as new technologies automate labour, production is moved abroad, and economic crises unfold. </p>
<p>Jobs disappearing is not a new phenomenon – have you seen an elevator operator recently? – but the pace of change is picking up, threatening to leave large numbers of workers unemployed and unemployable.</p>
<p>New technologies also create new jobs, but the skills they require do not always match the old jobs. Successfully moving between jobs requires making the most of your current skills and acquiring new ones, but these transitions can falter if the gap between old and new skills is too large. </p>
<p>We have built a system to recommend career transitions, using machine learning to analyse more than 8 million online job ads to see what moves are likely to be successful. The details are <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0254722">published</a> in PLOS ONE.</p>
<p>Our system starts by measuring similarities between the skills required by each occupation. For example, an accountant could become a financial analyst because the required skills are similar, but a speech therapist might find it harder to become a financial analyst as the skill sets are quite different. </p>
<p>Next, we looked at a large set of real-world career transitions to see which way around these transitions usually go: accountants are more likely to become financial analysts than vice versa. </p>
<p>Finally, our system can recommend a career change that’s likely to succeed – and tell you what skills you may need to make it work.</p>
<h2>Measure the similarity of occupations</h2>
<p>Our system uses a measure economists call “revealed comparative advantage” (RCA) to identify how important an individual skill is to a job, using online job ads from 2018. The map below visualises the similarity of the top 500 skills. Each marker represents an individual skill, coloured according to one of 13 clusters of highly similar skills. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411743/original/file-20210718-13-12t72bz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411743/original/file-20210718-13-12t72bz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411743/original/file-20210718-13-12t72bz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411743/original/file-20210718-13-12t72bz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411743/original/file-20210718-13-12t72bz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411743/original/file-20210718-13-12t72bz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411743/original/file-20210718-13-12t72bz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411743/original/file-20210718-13-12t72bz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The similarity between the top 500 skills in Australian job ads in 2018. Highly similar skills cluster together.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once we know how similar different skills are, we can estimate how similar different professions are based on the skills required. The figure below visualises the similarity between Australian occupations in 2018. </p>
<p>Each marker shows an individual occupation, and the colours depict the risk each occupation faces from automation over the next two decades (blue shows low risk and red shows high risk). Visibly similar occupations are grouped closely together, with medical and highly skilled occupations facing the lowest automation risk.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411745/original/file-20210718-23-14e8pl7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411745/original/file-20210718-23-14e8pl7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411745/original/file-20210718-23-14e8pl7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411745/original/file-20210718-23-14e8pl7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411745/original/file-20210718-23-14e8pl7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411745/original/file-20210718-23-14e8pl7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411745/original/file-20210718-23-14e8pl7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411745/original/file-20210718-23-14e8pl7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The similarity between occupations, coloured by technological automation risk.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mapping transitions</h2>
<p>We then took our measure of similarity between occupations and combined it with a range of other labour market variables, such as employment levels and education requirements, to build our job transition recommender system. </p>
<p>Our system uses machine learning techniques to “learn” from real job transitions in the past and predict job movements in the future. Not only does it achieve high levels of accuracy (76%), but it also accounts for asymmetries between job transitions. Performance is measured by how accurately the system predicts whether a transition occurred, when applied to historic job transitions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-be-alarmed-ai-wont-leave-half-the-world-unemployed-54958">Don’t be alarmed: AI won’t leave half the world unemployed</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The full transitions map is big and complicated, but you can see how it works below in a small version that only includes transitions between 20 occupations. In the map, the “source” occupation is shown on the horizontal axis and the “target” occupation on the vertical axis.</p>
<p>If you look at a given occupation at the bottom of the map, the column of squares shows the probability of moving from that occupation to the one listed at the right-hand side. The darker the square, the higher the probability of making the transition. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414714/original/file-20210805-13-lm02k8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414714/original/file-20210805-13-lm02k8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414714/original/file-20210805-13-lm02k8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414714/original/file-20210805-13-lm02k8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414714/original/file-20210805-13-lm02k8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414714/original/file-20210805-13-lm02k8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414714/original/file-20210805-13-lm02k8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414714/original/file-20210805-13-lm02k8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A small piece of the transitions map, with 20 occupations. Transitions occur from columns to rows, and darker blue shades depict high transition probabilities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Artificial intelligence-powered job recommendations</h2>
<p>Sometimes a new career requires developing new skills, but which skills? Our system can help identify those. Let’s take a look at how it works for “domestic cleaners”, an occupation where employment has shrunk severely during COVID-19 in Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411747/original/file-20210718-15775-1lodn02.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411747/original/file-20210718-15775-1lodn02.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=812&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411747/original/file-20210718-15775-1lodn02.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=812&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411747/original/file-20210718-15775-1lodn02.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=812&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411747/original/file-20210718-15775-1lodn02.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1020&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411747/original/file-20210718-15775-1lodn02.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1020&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411747/original/file-20210718-15775-1lodn02.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1020&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New occupations and skills recommendations made by the Job Transitions Recommender System for ‘Domestic Cleaners’ – a ‘non-essential’ occupation that has experienced significant declines during the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>First, we use the transitions map to see which occupations it is easiest for a domestic cleaner to transition to. The colours split occupations by their status during the COVID-19 crisis – blue occupations are “essential” jobs that can continue to operate during lockdown, and red are “non-essential”. </p>
<p>We identify top recommended occupations, as seen on the right side of the flow diagram (bottom half of the image), sorted in descending order by transition probability. The width of each band in the diagram shows the number of openings available for each occupation. The segment colours represent whether the demand has increased or decreased compared with the same period of 2019 (pre-COVID).</p>
<p>The first six transition recommendations for are all “non-essential” services, which have unsurprisingly experienced decreased demand. However, the seventh is “aged and disabled carers”, which is classified as “essential” and grew significantly in demand during the beginning of the COVID-19 period. </p>
<p>Since your prospects of finding work are better if you transition to an occupation
in high demand, we select “aged and disabled carers” as the target occupation for this example.</p>
<h2>What skills to develop for new occupations</h2>
<p>Our system can also recommend skills that workers need to develop to increase their chances of a successful transition. We argue that a worker should invest in developing the skills most important to their new profession and which are most different from the skills they currently have. </p>
<p>For a “domestic cleaner”, the top-recommended skills needed to transition to “aged and disabled carer” are specialised patient care skills, such as “patient hygiene assistance”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-benefits-of-job-automation-are-not-likely-to-be-shared-equally-90859">The benefits of job automation are not likely to be shared equally</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>On the other hand, there’s less need to develop unimportant skills or ones that are highly similar to skills from your current occupation. Skills such as “business analysis” and “finance” are of low importance for an “aged and disabled carer”, so they should not be prioritised. Similarly, skills such as “ironing” and “laundry” are required for the new job but it is likely that a “domestic cleaner” already possesses these skills (or can easily acquire them).</p>
<h2>The benefit of smoother job transitions</h2>
<p>While the future of work remains unclear, change is inevitable. New technologies, economic crises and other factors will continue to shift labour demands, causing workers to move between jobs. </p>
<p>If labour transitions occur efficiently, there are significant productivity and equity benefits for everyone. If transitions are slow, or fail, it will have significant costs for both individuals and the state and the individual. The methods and systems we put forward here could significantly improve the achievement of these goals.</p>
<p><em>We thank Bledi Taska and Davor Miskulin from Burning Glass Technologies for generously providing the job advertisements data for this research and for their valuable feedback. We also thank Stijn Broecke and other colleagues from the OECD for their ongoing input and guidance in the development of this work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164162/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nik Dawson works as a Senior Data Scientist for FutureFit AI. Nik received funding from the OECD as a Future of Work Fellow to support this research. Burning Glass Technologies generously provided the job advertisements data that enabled this research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marian-Andrei Rizoiu receives funding from Facebook Research under the Content Policy Research Initiative grants and by the Commonwealth of Australia (represented by the Defence Science and Technology Group). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary-Anne Williams receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Automation is set to put a lot of people out of work - but machine learning could help them find their next career.Nik Dawson, Honorary Scholar, University of Technology SydneyMarian-Andrei Rizoiu, Lecturer in Computer Science, University of Technology SydneyMary-Anne Williams, Michael J Crouch Chair in Innovation, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1651092021-07-27T12:25:28Z2021-07-27T12:25:28ZFactories of the future: we’re spending heavily to give workers skills they won’t need by 2030<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413319/original/file-20210727-17-75us2f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'The only living worker left'.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industrial-technology-concept-communication-network-industry-1633937677">metamorworks</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“This government is obsessed with skilling up our population,” said Boris Johnson in his <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-prime-ministers-levelling-up-speech-15-july-2021">recent speech</a> on “levelling up”. There is still a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-actually-is-levelling-up-what-we-know-about-boris-johnsons-agenda-and-what-we-dont-164886">fair amount</a> of uncertainty about exactly what the UK prime minister’s plan to level up the regions will involve, but manufacturing and skills seem close to the heart of it. </p>
<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/factories-of-the-future-were-spending-heavily-to-give-workers-skills-they-wont-need-by-2030-165109&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p>The government is trying to achieve a renaissance in vocational education with its industry-focused <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introduction-of-t-levels/introduction-of-t-levels">T-level</a> courses for students, “Skills Bootcamp” retraining programmes for adults, and <a href="https://www.fenews.co.uk/fevoices/68373-press-release-government-to-publish-levelling-up-white-paper#!/ccomment-comment=307">increased funding</a> for further education in general. Together with the recent announcement of a new <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-57962364">Nissan “mega-factory”</a> in Sunderland, some <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2019/sep/30/education-secretary-announces-plans-for-vocational-training">might argue</a> that the UK is finally becoming a high-skill vocational manufacturing economy to rival Germany and Japan. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the world is moving on. In the factories of the future, the role of skills will be dramatically different. We are in the early stages of what is known as <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/09/02/what-is-industry-4-0-heres-a-super-easy-explanation-for-anyone/?sh=2a960fa09788">industry 4.0</a>: digital manufacturing that attempts to automate and regulate every aspect of production, including the human. There is little sign that the UK government is thinking about this, or what it means for the youngsters looking to work in manufacturing in future. </p>
<h2>How factories are going digital</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://staging-us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/the-sage-handbook-of-learning-and-work/book267999#contents">three-year study</a>, I found that learning in factories is fundamentally shifting from human workers to machines. In high-tech manufacturing, machines are being connected to one another in what is often referred to as the <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-the-internet-of-things-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-iot-right-now/">internet of things</a> – using sensors to gather information and send signals back to the production process. In the study, we <a href="https://gow.epsrc.ukri.org/NGBOViewGrant.aspx?GrantRef=EP/R021031/1">refer to</a> factories and even products becoming “chatty” through all this communication of information, and predict that this will lead to profound changes in manufacturing by 2030. </p>
<p>Airbus is a <a href="https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/stories/iot-aerospace-great-new-connector.html">good example</a>. It has considerably improved the efficiency of the assembly lines for aircraft and helicopters by gathering information and continually feeding it back. Along with <a href="https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/246745/Aeris%20Industry%20Brief%20-%20Smart%20Airplane%20Monitoring.pdf#:%7E:text=comes%20into%20play.-,IoT%20functionality%20enables%20airlines%20and%20airplane%20manufacturers%20to%20monitor%20planes,also%20gather%20non%2Dcritical%20information.">other aircraft manufacturers</a> it also carries this approach into the product, using data from aircraft in the field to find ways to improve the next generation. </p>
<p>Increasingly, such systems will optimise themselves using machine learning with a view to maximising sales and profits. In a break from the age-old system of human manufacturers deciding what to produce in response to what consumers want, machines are starting to play a role in these decisions, taking on a life of their own. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413320/original/file-20210727-26-bm1840.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Fully automated futuristic assembly line" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413320/original/file-20210727-26-bm1840.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413320/original/file-20210727-26-bm1840.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413320/original/file-20210727-26-bm1840.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413320/original/file-20210727-26-bm1840.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413320/original/file-20210727-26-bm1840.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413320/original/file-20210727-26-bm1840.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413320/original/file-20210727-26-bm1840.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Robots and AI are moving from supporting the workers to taking over.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/automation-aumobile-factory-concept-3d-rendering-1469602679">Phonlamai Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Humans will increasingly be used in factories mainly to train robots and AI (artificial intelligence). <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/self-learning-systems-to-replace-humans-in-manufacturing/">Robots are</a> being developed <a href="https://hbr.org/2016/06/robots-are-learning-complex-tasks-just-by-watching-humans-do-them">that can</a> observe what humans do and learn from it, replicating simple movements and patterns. Such technologies are still very limited, even in advanced manufacturing, but this will soon change. </p>
<p>Once learned, of course, these human skills will no longer be necessary. Workers will find that their ability to teach or at least work around robots and AI will become the most valued component of their skill base. Some employers <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9783319551098">are already</a> emphasising the need for workers to use their shop-floor skills differently to make what they do “machine readable” for AI. </p>
<p>Finally, the same technologies that allow social media companies to build up a picture of their users will allow manufacturers to not only monitor and simulate their workers but to build up a global picture of work and skill in general. </p>
<p>Digital companies <a href="https://blog.workday.com/en-us/2020/foundation-workday-skills-cloud.html">are forming</a> “skills clouds” in which they build up an electronic library of ideal employee profiles in different industries that can be used in recruitment and training. This might be used to choose job applicants based on to what extent they fit these ideal profiles, for example. Skills clouds are already being used by recruitment agencies <a href="https://www.altura.consulting/blog/workday-skills-cloud">such as Workday</a> in allocating workers to manufacturing and logistics jobs.</p>
<h2>Levelling up who?</h2>
<p>Apprenticeships and vocational qualifications used to be a route to a reasonably secure factory job – even in a nation like the UK that has lost so much of its manufacturing capability over the years. But with industry 4.0 the picture looks far less certain, at least in the years after 2030. </p>
<p>Of course, there will still be opportunities for workers who can work with the new technology – “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43259903">robot wranglers</a>” as they’re being described. New jobs may be created in these areas, and those who are able to fit the criteria stored in skills clouds may be able to fill them. </p>
<p>However, digitising and automating manufacturing may reinforce a dual skills market that prizes (a small number of) high-level technical skills, while everything else ends up being done by machines. It appears that the factory and its associated infrastructure will be levelling up rather than the workers. </p>
<p>The worry is that the UK government is not talking about this, and seems to be developing a strategy that is naïve to it. The golden age of manufacturing and vocational skill no longer exists, if it ever did: the next shifts are about anti-human technologies and organisational forms rapidly depreciating human skills. </p>
<p>This raises complex questions about what kind of society we want, which can’t necessarily be answered easily. At the very least, any discussion about levelling up needs to anticipate the future and factor it into the plan. </p>
<p>One point to make is that for all the talk of levelling up and working-class jobs, a missing component is the voice of the workers. Governments and opposition parties may not like it, but if factories are going to “level down” skills, some form of collective ownership or at least social partnership is necessary to ensure that human skills and employment are secured – perhaps by limiting the extent to which AI and robotics are used in production. </p>
<p>Unions, social movements and workers’ cooperatives have a role to play in this. We need to face what is coming and start thinking about how we respond to it – in ten short years, it may be too late.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165109/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Preston received funding from the EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council) ( EP/R021031/1)</span></em></p>The government’s ‘levelling up’ agenda seems to be taking no account of coming automation.John Preston, Professor of Sociology, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1591872021-06-15T12:25:39Z2021-06-15T12:25:39ZArtisan robots with AI smarts will juggle tasks, choose tools, mix and match recipes and even order materials – all without human help<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406225/original/file-20210614-125373-qckcwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C7988%2C4479&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Factory robots could soon acquire a range of skills, including the ability to choose how to make things.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/smart-industry-production-process-royalty-free-illustration/1282209924">studiostockart/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Failure of a machine in a factory can shut it down. Lost production can cost millions of dollars per day. Component failures can devastate factories, power plants and battlefield equipment. </p>
<p>To return to operation, skilled technicians use all the tools in their kit - machining, bending, welding and surface treating, making just the right part as quickly and as accurately as possible. But there’s a <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/manufacturing/manufacturing-industry-diversity.html">declining number of technicians with the right skills</a>, and the quality of things made by hand is subject to the skills and mood of the artisan on the day the part is made. </p>
<p>Both problems could soon be solved by artificially intelligent robotic technicians. These systems can take measurements; shape, cut or weld parts using varied tools; pass parts to specialized equipment; and even purchase needed materials – all without human intervention. Known as hybrid autonomous manufacturing, this process involves automated systems that seamlessly use multiple tools and techniques to build high-quality components where and when they are needed.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=KzTuzhkAAAAJ&hl=en">professor of metallurgical engineering</a>. My colleagues and I design the recipes to make materials and components with just the right internal structure to create properties like strength and fracture resistance. With a network of colleagues at Ohio State and other universities, I have been developing a plan to give birth to these autonomous artisans. </p>
<h2>How things are made</h2>
<p>Components are either mass-produced or custom-made.</p>
<p>Most things people touch daily have been mass-produced. Quality is assured by using well-honed processes based on testing and monitoring large numbers of parts and assuring the process is done the same way every time. </p>
<p>Custom fabrication – making components on demand – is often essential, sometimes to conform to a patient’s specific anatomy or to replace aircraft landing gear that was forged and is no longer being made. Processes for making metallic parts – material removal, deposition, deformation, transformation, inspection – can all be done with small tools, with incremental actions rather than the kind of bulk processes, usually with big tools and dies, used in mass production. </p>
<p>Automation has long been a part of mass production, which includes sophisticated robots that handle parts and weld on automobile assembly lines. Additive manufacturing, often referred to as 3D printing, is increasingly being used with a variety of materials <a href="https://www.spotlightmetal.com/where-does-additive-manufacturing-stand-in-2021-a-1003729/">to make components</a>. </p>
<p>Now in development are <a href="https://theconversation.com/robotic-blacksmithing-a-technology-that-could-revive-us-manufacturing-125428">robotic blacksmiths</a> – robots that can hammer metallic parts into shape instead of cutting, building up or molding them.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405991/original/file-20210611-19-ezdgpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Robotic arms reach into the frame of a car being manufactured" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405991/original/file-20210611-19-ezdgpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405991/original/file-20210611-19-ezdgpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405991/original/file-20210611-19-ezdgpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405991/original/file-20210611-19-ezdgpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405991/original/file-20210611-19-ezdgpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405991/original/file-20210611-19-ezdgpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405991/original/file-20210611-19-ezdgpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Robots have been building cars for decades, but they typically carry out simple, repetitive tasks that don’t require decision-making.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/jHZ70nRk7Ns">Lenny Kuhne/Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Automated customization – not an oxymoron</h2>
<p>To automate custom fabrication, my colleagues and I are developing an automated suite of tools that can carry out all the steps for making a wide range of components, using multiple processes without human intervention. Sensors will also be central to hybrid autonomous manufacturing to control the processes and maintain and assure quality. </p>
<p>Such autonomous manufacturing systems will make the myriad decisions needed to create a component of the right strength, size and surface finish. Artificial intelligence will be required to handle the enormous number of choices of materials, machine settings and process sequences. Rather than finding a mass production recipe and never deviating, these autonomous manufacturing systems will choose from a very large set of possible recipes to create parts, and will have the intelligence to assure that the chosen path produces components with the appropriate material properties.</p>
<p>Robots could either position small tools on manufactured component or transfer the component from one piece of equipment to another. A fully autonomous system could manufacture a wide range of products with a versatile set of tools. The systems could source materials and possibly even send work out to specialized cutting and deformation tools, just like a human artisan. </p>
<p>The production rate of such systems would not rival those of mass production, but because robots can work continuously they can be more productive than human technicians are. Data from sensors provide a digital record of all the steps and processes with critical temperatures, machine settings and even images. This record can assure quality by, for example, making sure the material was deformed the right amount and cracks were not produced during the process and covered up. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406223/original/file-20210614-125373-hkh0q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An X-ray of a knee shows elaborate hardware including four long screws in the lower bone and a series of staples near the hardware" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406223/original/file-20210614-125373-hkh0q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406223/original/file-20210614-125373-hkh0q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=824&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406223/original/file-20210614-125373-hkh0q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=824&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406223/original/file-20210614-125373-hkh0q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=824&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406223/original/file-20210614-125373-hkh0q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406223/original/file-20210614-125373-hkh0q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406223/original/file-20210614-125373-hkh0q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Surgeons sometimes have to double as metalworkers when dealing with bad fractures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/broken-leg-royalty-free-image/171586126">PEDRE/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Manufacturing at or near the operating room is one example of a process that can be enabled with hybrid autonomous manufacturing. Often when patients with bone fractures undergo trauma surgery, metallic plates of varied shapes are required to hold bones together for healing. These are often created in the operating room, where the surgeon bends plates to fit the patient, sometimes using a 3D-printed model created from medical images of the patient as a form to bend the metal against. </p>
<p>Bending by hand is slow and imprecise, and stressing the plate in the wrong place can cause it to fracture. A robotic technician could cut and bend and finish a plate before surgery. Patients do better and save money if they spend less time in the hospital.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 106,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<h2>The road to robotic artisans</h2>
<p>Numerous companies are now showing the way forward in autonomous manufacturing, including three venture-funded startups. <a href="https://www.formlogic.com">FormLogic</a> is developing automated high-quality machine shops. <a href="https://www.path-robotics.com">Path Robotics</a> is putting the skills of a welder into a robot. And <a href="https://agilityprime.afwerxshowcase.com/exhibitor/machina-labs/">Machina Labs</a> is out to create robotic blacksmiths. Other companies are developing systems to automate design and logistics.</p>
<p>Hybridization – the ability to carry out different tasks in different ways with multiple tools – is the next step. The key pieces of hybrid autonomous manufacturing exist now, and fully autonomous systems could be common in a decade. Companies adopting this approach to custom fabrication will need to draw on a new generation of students with the skills to combine these technologies. </p>
<p>The investments proposed in the <a href="https://www.rpc.senate.gov/legislative-notices/s1260_the-united-states-innovation-and-competition-act">United States Innovation and Competition Act</a> <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/06/08/senate-passes-technology-research-bill-compete-china/7415962002/">passed by the Senate</a> on June 8, 2021, and those in the Biden administration’s proposed <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-sheet-the-american-jobs-plan/">American Jobs Plan</a> could support the development of these kinds of advanced manufacturing technologies. Funds for the development of advanced manufacturing technologies and the associated skills base could <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pandemic-has-revealed-the-cracks-in-us-manufacturing-heres-how-to-fix-them-143407">make U.S. manufacturing more competitive</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159187/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glenn S. Daehn has received funding from the National Science Foundation and serves on the Advisory Board of FormLogic. </span></em></p>Custom fabrication involves taking measurements, choosing tools, deciding on sequences of steps and ordering from a menu of materials. AIs under development promise to take humans out of the loop.Glenn S. Daehn, Professor of Materials Science and Engineering, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1506312021-04-28T06:06:24Z2021-04-28T06:06:24ZNot every student needs senior maths, but we can make maths more engaging in the earlier school years<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397460/original/file-20210428-19-mmrtuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/business-person-standing-against-blackboard-data-129864713">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In late 2019, <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/maths-to-be-compulsory-for-students">New South Wales announced</a> it would make maths compulsory all through school. Victoria will have an additional, easier, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/new-year-12-maths-subject-delayed-20210202-p56yqw.html">year 12 maths subject</a> in 2023 to boost the numbers of maths students in senior levels.</p>
<p>Moves to push more students into senior maths partly stem from the idea students need to be equipped with skills for jobs of the future, largely driven by automation. The <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/national-stem-education-resources-toolkit/why-stem-important-0">federal government considers STEM</a> (science, technology, engineering and maths) skills as “crucial for Australia’s changing future”. A resource kit for STEM educators, developed by the federal government, <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/national-stem-education-resources-toolkit/why-stem-important-0">states</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s predicted that future workers will spend more than twice as much time on job tasks requiring science, maths and critical thinking than today.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But the number of students taking higher level maths has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/we-ve-bottomed-out-hsc-maths-enrolments-flatline-over-the-decade-20201013-p564k5.html">bottomed-out</a>.
Nationally, <a href="https://theconversation.com/fewer-australians-are-taking-advanced-maths-in-year-12-we-can-learn-from-countries-doing-it-better-149148">less than 30% of students choose</a> upper level, calculus based, maths — down dramatically in the past 20 years. </p>
<p>There are many arguments for how to get more students to take senior maths. They include making the subject more engaging, ensuring enough specialist teachers and, of course, making maths compulsory.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fewer-australians-are-taking-advanced-maths-in-year-12-we-can-learn-from-countries-doing-it-better-149148">Fewer Australians are taking advanced maths in Year 12. We can learn from countries doing it better</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>At the moment, only <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-06/stem-subjects-australian-education-system-jobs-atlassian/9373456">Tasmania requires</a> students to take basic maths through to year 12. Students <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-to-make-maths-mandatory-for-students-in-years-11-and-12-20191023-p533ma.html#:%7E:text=The%20NSW%20government%20will%20make,it%20mandatory%20for%20the%20HSC.&text=Mathematics%20will%20be%20made%20compulsory%20for%20students%20in%20years%2011%20and%2012.">in the ACT and NSW</a> can finish studying maths in year 10 if they choose to. <a href="https://www.sace.sa.edu.au/web/mathematics">South Australia</a>, the <a href="https://www.sace.sa.edu.au/coordinating/ntcet">Northern Territory</a> and <a href="https://www.elc.net.au/new-qce-maths-subjects-explained/">Queensland</a> require students to take just <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-06/stem-subjects-australian-education-system-jobs-atlassian/9373456">one unit of maths</a> in the two final years of high school. </p>
<p>But how important is it for every student to have graduated school with high level maths?</p>
<h2>Maths and the future of work</h2>
<p>The argument every student needs advanced maths for his or her career doesn’t always hold. A <a href="https://www.livescience.com/29017-which-jobs-actually-use-math.html#:%7E:text=But%20something%20doesn't%20add,on%20the%20job%2C%20research%20suggests.&text=And%20highly%20skilled%20blue%2Dcollar,than%20their%20white%2Dcollar%20peers.">2013 study</a> of 2,300 workers in the United States found less than 25% of them use maths beyond fractions in their current jobs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397481/original/file-20210428-13-11mj0gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of professionals having a discussion at a boardroom table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397481/original/file-20210428-13-11mj0gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397481/original/file-20210428-13-11mj0gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397481/original/file-20210428-13-11mj0gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397481/original/file-20210428-13-11mj0gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397481/original/file-20210428-13-11mj0gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397481/original/file-20210428-13-11mj0gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397481/original/file-20210428-13-11mj0gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Human skills, like relationship building, are important to employers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/making-great-decisions-young-beautiful-woman-370390046">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But we’re told the nature of work is rapidly changing and that employment in jobs requiring STEM skills is <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/newsroom/articles/stem-jobs-growing-almost-twice-fast-other-jobs">growing faster</a> than in others. This may be true. Although the federal <a href="https://joboutlook.gov.au/careers/future-outlook/">government also highlights</a> growing industries aren’t all focused on STEM skills. They include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>health care and social assistance</p></li>
<li><p>education and training</p></li>
<li><p>construction</p></li>
<li><p>customer service.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Most of these jobs will require strong numeracy and computational thinking skills, including problem-solving that can come from subjects outside maths.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/building-lucky-country/articles/path-prosperity-future-work.htm">Deloitte report</a> into the future of work also noted the importance of human skills in automated industries:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] jobs increasingly need us to use our hearts — the interpersonal and creative roles, with uniquely human skills like creativity, customer service, care for others and collaboration.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A <a href="https://www.nationalskillscommission.gov.au/skills-future">federal government report</a> echoes this by advising those looking for work to:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>remember to emphasise your employability skills, rather than just the technical skills […] Communication, reliability, team work, patience, resilience and initiative are required for all jobs, and this will continue to be the case in the future […] Some 75% of employers considered employability skills to be as important, if not more important, than technical skills.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Maths is embedded in most of these skills. But it’s certainly not the only subject that teaches them.</p>
<h2>What subjects can give students the skills they need?</h2>
<p>Broadly speaking, <a href="https://www.topuniversities.com/student-info/careers-advice/future-skills-youll-need-your-career-2030">some of the skills</a> students will need in their future — in both their work and daily life — include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>cognitive flexibility: the ability to adapt to the changing world and information around you; to be a lifelong learner</p></li>
<li><p>traditional and digital literacies: basic literacy, numeracy and media literacy (including the use of technology)</p></li>
<li><p>creativity and imagination: the human traits that separate us from machines and bring a human perspective to our work</p></li>
<li><p>computational thinking: problem solving processes we need in our work and life</p></li>
<li><p>ethical and sustainable practice: a commitment to do no harm to each other or the planet</p></li>
<li><p>Indigenous perspectives and cultural competence: promoting reconciliation and working successfully and respectfully across cultures and customs </p></li>
<li><p>well-being: taking care of our minds, bodies and our mob.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These skills are not taught just in maths but across the disciplines, <a href="https://www.monash.edu/education/research/projects/numeracy-across-the-curriculum-research-project">including</a> science, geography, visual arts, health and physical education, languages, history and design.</p>
<h2>What kind of maths skills do students need?</h2>
<p>In his 2016 book, <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/23258874-the-math-myth">The Maths Math: And Other STEM Delusions</a>, bestselling US author Andrew Hacker proposes we allow students to explore their passions in the latter school years instead of pushing advanced maths onto them.</p>
<p>He also recommends we teach basic maths so well students gain computational and critical thinking skills they can use throughout their lives.</p>
<p>Computational skills are the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zp92mp3/revision/1">ability to understand</a> a complex problem, develop possible solutions and then present these solutions in a way a computer, human, or both, can understand. </p>
<p>These skills are what primary maths should aim toward, emphasising interdisciplinary connections across key learning areas. And strong basic numeracy skills build a foundation for a lifetime.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-just-solve-for-x-letting-kids-explore-real-world-scenarios-will-keep-them-in-maths-class-124876">Don’t just solve for x: letting kids explore real-world scenarios will keep them in maths class</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But <a href="https://reports.acara.edu.au/Home/Results#results">NAPLAN numeracy results</a> in the past decade, as well as scores in the OECD’s <a href="https://www.oecd.org/pisa/publications/PISA2018_CN_AUS.pdf">Programme for International Student Assessment</a>, indicate many teachers are not prepared to teach primary maths effectively to an increasingly diverse student population. </p>
<p>Current <a href="https://theconversation.com/fewer-australians-are-taking-advanced-maths-in-year-12-we-can-learn-from-countries-doing-it-better-149148">maths assessments</a> tend to limit the possibilities and the interdisciplinary connections by teaching math discretely. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397484/original/file-20210428-15-n7u8kf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Boy and girl working on making a small robot." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397484/original/file-20210428-15-n7u8kf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397484/original/file-20210428-15-n7u8kf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397484/original/file-20210428-15-n7u8kf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397484/original/file-20210428-15-n7u8kf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397484/original/file-20210428-15-n7u8kf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397484/original/file-20210428-15-n7u8kf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397484/original/file-20210428-15-n7u8kf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We need to teach maths as part of other subjects to make it more engaging.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/boy-girl-doing-group-project-making-1070348063">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many schools are using projects and portfolios to develop these relevant skills, with learning outcomes based on ‘doing’ rather than regurgitating facts. This is not a move away from the goal of traditional numeracy skills. Rather, it’s the way we teach them and honour their relevance in multiple contexts outside of maths that makes the subject more engaging.</p>
<p>It’s important then for maths-related lessons to allow students to create, design, make, build, exhibit and present.</p>
<p>These ideas are at the heart of the current reviews into the <a href="https://nswcurriculumreform.nesa.nsw.edu.au/home/homePageContent/view">NSW Curriculum</a> and the <a href="https://www.acara.edu.au/curriculum/curriculum-review">Australian curriculum</a>. </p>
<p>Armed with these foundational “basics”, all students could connect their passions as teenagers with the STEM skills they need for the future they envision - and many may then choose advanced maths courses with confidence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150631/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Fischetti does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’re told jobs requiring science and maths skills are growing faster than others. But industry reports also highlight human skills will be more important in the age of automation.John Fischetti, Professor, Pro Vice-Chancellor of the College of Human and Social Futures, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1552672021-02-23T16:13:10Z2021-02-23T16:13:10ZThe robot revolution is here: How it’s changing jobs and businesses in Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385391/original/file-20210221-13-dqrhqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C29%2C4955%2C3196&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The future of automated labour may not spell the end of human employment.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2017, I returned to Canada from Sweden, where I had spent a year working on <a href="https://magazine.cim.org/en/technology/fully-loaded">automation in mining</a>. Shortly after my return, the <em>New York Times</em> published a piece called, “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/27/business/the-robots-are-coming-and-sweden-is-fine.html">The Robots Are Coming, and Sweden Is Fine</a>,” about Sweden’s embrace of automation while limiting human costs.</p>
<p>Although Swedes are apparently optimistic about their future alongside robots, other countries aren’t as hopeful. One widely cited <a href="https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf">study estimates that 47 per cent of jobs in the United States are at risk of being replaced by robots and artificial intelligence</a>.</p>
<p>Whether we like it or not, the robot era is already upon us. The question is: Is the Canadian economy poised to flourish or flounder in a world where robots take over the tasks we don’t want to do ourselves? The answer may surprise you.</p>
<h2>Robots are everywhere</h2>
<p>Modern-day <a href="https://robots.ieee.org">robots</a> are how artificial intelligence (AI) physically interacts with us, and the world around us. Although some robots <a href="https://robots.ieee.org/robots/?t=sort">resemble humans</a>, most do not and are instead specifically designed to autonomously carry out complex tasks.</p>
<p>Over the last few decades, robots have rapidly grown from specialized devices developed for select industry applications to household items. You can buy a robot to <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/home-robots/irobot-roomba-i3">vacuum your floors</a>, <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/home-robots/irobot-terra-robotic-lawnmower">cut your grass</a> and <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/drones/ring-indoor-security-drone">keep your home secure</a>. Kids play with <a href="https://robots.ieee.org/learn/">educational robots</a> at school, where they learn to code, and compete in robot design teams that culminate in <a href="https://www.firstinspires.org">exciting international competitions</a>.</p>
<p>Robots are also appearing in our hospitals, promising to help us <a href="https://robotics.utoronto.ca/covid-19-white-paper/">fight the COVID-19 pandemic</a> and performing <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/medical-robots/medical-robots-future-outbreak-response">other health-care tasks</a> in safer and more efficient ways.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1308156953500278786"}"></div></p>
<p>The media is abuzz with stories about the latest technical claims, rumours and speculations about the secret developments of major international corporations, including <a href="https://waymo.com">Waymo</a>, <a href="https://www.tesla.com/autopilot">Tesla</a>, <a href="https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/apple-car/">Apple</a>, <a href="https://group.volvocars.com/company/innovation/autonomous-drive">Volvo</a> and <a href="https://getcruise.com/technology">GM</a>.</p>
<p>And NASA just landed the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/perseverance">Perseverance rover</a> on Mars, with an autonomous helicopter called <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter">Ingenuity</a> attached to its belly.</p>
<p>Oh, and there are the <a href="https://youtu.be/fn3KWM1kuAw">dancing robots</a> too, of course.</p>
<h2>Robots behind the scenes</h2>
<p>I have been working on robotics and autonomous vehicles technology <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32552-1_59">in mining</a> since the late 1990s. As such, I have been part of an industry that is undergoing a sea change, with fully autonomous machines steadily replacing workers in dark, dirty and dangerous scenarios.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385348/original/file-20210219-17-1jic3xc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Autonomous underground mining vehicle" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385348/original/file-20210219-17-1jic3xc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385348/original/file-20210219-17-1jic3xc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385348/original/file-20210219-17-1jic3xc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385348/original/file-20210219-17-1jic3xc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385348/original/file-20210219-17-1jic3xc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385348/original/file-20210219-17-1jic3xc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385348/original/file-20210219-17-1jic3xc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A fully autonomous underground load-haul-dump vehicle developed for Swedish mining equipment manufacturer Epiroc AB and in partnership with Canadian robotics firm MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Joshua Marshall)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This robot revolution is happening behind the scenes in other industries too. Robots fill <a href="https://amazonrobotics.com">Amazon orders</a>, <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/automation-robotics-and-the-factory-of-the-future">manufacture stuff in factories</a>, <a href="https://www.greenhousegrower.com/production/vegetables-production/how-automated-cucumber-harvesting-is-becoming-a-reality">plant and pick crops</a>, assist on <a href="https://www.bostondynamics.com/spot/applications/pomerleau">construction sites</a>, and the list goes on. </p>
<p>In fact, <a href="https://fanuc.co.jp/en/profile/production/factory1.html">robots even build other robots</a>. Will we soon run out of jobs for people?</p>
<h2>Robots in Canada</h2>
<p>There are many who paint a <a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/martin-ford/rise-of-the-robots/9780465097531">bleak picture of the future</a>, where robots and AI take away all the “good jobs.” Although I fully acknowledge that we must be mindful of possible <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-future-of-work-will-hit-vulnerable-people-the-hardest-131963">inequalities and unintended outcomes</a> that might arise as a result of new technologies, I contend that Canadians have the potential to thrive.</p>
<p>But to make it happen, <a href="https://ingenuitylabs.queensu.ca">my colleagues</a> and I agree that our country needs a “robotics strategy.” </p>
<p>In 2017, Canada launched the world’s first national AI strategy. Called the <a href="https://cifar.ca/ai">Pan-Canadian Artificial Intelligence Strategy</a> and costing $125 million, the strategy aims to strengthen Canada’s leadership in AI by funding institutes, universities and hospitals to meet key objectives.</p>
<p>In its 2020 list of future jobs, the World Economic Forum listed “robotics engineers” as <a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_2020.pdf">No. 10</a>, in close company with “AI and machine learning specialists.” In Canada, I see huge potential for our robotics industry, with companies such as <a href="https://clearpathrobotics.com">Clearpath Robotics</a>, <a href="https://ottomotors.com">OTTO Motors</a>, <a href="https://www.kinovarobotics.com/en">Kinova</a>, <a href="https://robotiq.com">Robotiq</a> and <a href="https://titanmedicalinc.com">Titan Medical</a> already world leaders in the design and manufacture of robots for purposes ranging from materials handling to surgery.</p>
<p>Beyond building robots, Canada’s most significant opportunities may lie in the increased adoption of robots into economically important industry sectors, including mining, agriculture, manufacturing and transportation.</p>
<p>And yet, <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200608005203/en/%22How-Nations-Invest-Robotics-Research%22-%E2%80%93-report">Canada may be the only G7 country without a robotics strategy</a>.</p>
<h2>The robot revelation</h2>
<p>As it turns out, there is hope. According to a <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/201102/dq201102d-eng.htm">November 2020 report from Statistics Canada</a>, Canadian firms that employed robots have also hired more human workers, contrary to what you may instinctively believe. In fact, they hired 15 per cent more workers!</p>
<p>However, this does not mean that we can all sit back and relax. Along with the increased economic activity that robots bring to businesses comes <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210127/dq210127b-eng.htm">a shift in the workforce from “workers spending less time performing routine, manual tasks, in favour of non-routine, cognitive tasks.</a>”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385346/original/file-20210219-13-hcqsmp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="students in a robotics lab" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385346/original/file-20210219-13-hcqsmp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385346/original/file-20210219-13-hcqsmp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385346/original/file-20210219-13-hcqsmp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385346/original/file-20210219-13-hcqsmp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385346/original/file-20210219-13-hcqsmp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385346/original/file-20210219-13-hcqsmp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385346/original/file-20210219-13-hcqsmp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mobile robotics researchers from the Ingenuity Labs Research Institute at Queen’s University.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Heshan Fernando)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The roles of education and research and development — such as <a href="https://engineering.queensu.ca/programs/undergraduate/mre/index.html">new programs to train the next generation of robot-savvy Canadians</a> and <a href="https://ncrn-rcrc.mcgill.ca">collaborative research clusters</a> — are paramount. And they need to be combined with a national robotics strategy and a progressive socio-economic system that supports a transitioning workforce to ensure the success, well-being and happiness of Canadians, alongside our robot friends.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155267/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua A. Marshall receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) under Discovery grant RGPIN-2015-04025. He also receives funding from the NSERC Canadian Robotics Network (NCRN) and its industry partners, including Clearpath Robotics, under grant NETGP 508451-17, from the NSERC Collaborative R&D program, General Dynamics Land Systems (Canada), and Defence R&D Canada (DRDC) under grant DNDPJ 533392-18, from the National Research Council of Canada (NRC) under grant agreement SC-AI4L-118-1, as well as from the NSERC CREATE for Building Trust in Connected Autonomous Vehicles under grant 542999-2020.</span></em></p>As the use of robots and autonomous machines increases across industries, governments need to have a strategy in place. The labour force will transition out of automated tasks into new jobs.Joshua A. Marshall, Associate Professor of Mechatronics and Robotics Engineering, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.