tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/black-saturday-3290/articles
Black saturday – The Conversation
2021-01-28T18:55:20Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/153890
2021-01-28T18:55:20Z
2021-01-28T18:55:20Z
How heatwaves and drought combine to produce the perfect firestorm
<p>Long heatwaves during entrenched drought often trigger fears of bushfire. It’s easy to imagine rolling days of hot, dry weather desiccating leaves, bark and twigs, transforming them into a potent fuel. </p>
<p>Victoria’s heatwave in 2009, which reached a record temperature of 46.4°C, came during <a href="http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/2025/remembering-black-saturday-the-extraordinary-weather-behind-victorias-2009-bushfires/">severe, enduring drought</a> and culminated in the Black Saturday bushfire tragedy. </p>
<p>Likewise, the unprecedented Black Summer bushfires marked the end of 2019, Australia’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/weather-bureau-says-hottest-driest-year-on-record-led-to-extreme-bushfire-season-129447">warmest and driest</a> year on record. It unfolded in episodes of extreme heat combined with dry, windy conditions. </p>
<p>While we know heatwaves and drought make fires worse, the details are poorly understood. This is what our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094720303133">new research</a> investigated. </p>
<p>We found drought and heatwaves intensify the drying of dead bushfire fuel, and can lead to “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.06.030">megafires</a>” like those we saw last summer. However, we were surprised to find the effect varies in nature over different regions. Let’s look at why. </p>
<h2>Fuelling a megafire</h2>
<p>Megafires are mainly defined by their enormous size and the amount of resources required to bring them under control. They can burn for months, and consist of multiple “extreme” bushfires.</p>
<p>Extreme bushfires burn intensely in smaller areas, lasting up to a few hours. They’re also widely known to create their own weather, and in the very worst cases can develop into fire thunderstorms. </p>
<p>Most of the damage wrought by the Black Summer fires was due to recurring <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1811-1">extreme bushfire</a> events. These were extraordinarily powerful, with high rates of fire spread, high fire intensity and profuse “spotting” (when embers in the wind start new bushfires). </p>
<p>One of the most critical factors driving extreme bushfires is the moisture content of bushfire fuel — grass, leaves, sticks, shrubs, logs and trees.</p>
<p>Drier fuels not only burn more readily and with greater intensity, but are more susceptible to mass spotting, which can rapidly drive a fire across the landscape. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kEHspanF_G0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Testing the moisture levels of bushfire fuels.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our study quantified the combined influence of drought and heatwaves on the moisture content of bushfire fuels. We specifically looked at “dead fine fuels”, which consist of dead vegetation less than 25 millimetres in diameter.</p>
<p>Dead fine fuels are specifically considered in fire management due to their capacity to ignite fires and drive the initial spread. They also play an important role in spotting. In fact, when the <a href="https://youtu.be/bT_wxX6MQgE">moisture content of dead fine fuels</a> is critically low, spotting can become the dominant way bushfires propagate.</p>
<h2>Heatwaves and fuel moisture</h2>
<p>We looked at peak heat and fire seasons in southeast Australia from 1971 to 2020, and investigated the statistical correlation between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1">various heatwave characteristics</a> — frequency, duration, average intensity, and amplitude — and the average dead fine fuel moisture content for this period.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381017/original/file-20210128-15-1o6jksg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Burnt trees line a road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381017/original/file-20210128-15-1o6jksg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381017/original/file-20210128-15-1o6jksg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381017/original/file-20210128-15-1o6jksg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381017/original/file-20210128-15-1o6jksg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381017/original/file-20210128-15-1o6jksg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381017/original/file-20210128-15-1o6jksg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381017/original/file-20210128-15-1o6jksg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dried vegetation is one of the most critical factors driving extreme bushfires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found the heatwave characteristics of duration and intensity (high average heatwave temperature) had a strong effect on dead fine fuel dryness. But surprisingly the effects were not the same across different regions. </p>
<p>In and around the Australian Capital Territory, lower fuel moisture was driven by long-lasting heatwaves. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, over northeastern New South Wales, southeast Queensland and central Victoria, fuel dryness was driven by heatwave intensity. A clear example of this is when Melbourne endured <a href="https://www2.health.vic.gov.au/Api%2Fdownloadmedia%2F%7B959CCD3C-8285-4938-872E-62E15AA62C62%7D">three consecutive days</a> of temperatures over 43°C prior to the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, leading to critically dry fuels.</p>
<p>We found drought exacerbates the effect of heatwaves on fuel dryness. However, this also depends on the region. </p>
<p>In and around the ACT, a longer heatwave with drought produced critically low fuel moisture. But in central Victoria, extreme temperatures with drought led to the driest fuel.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-el-nino-and-la-nina-27719">Explainer: El Niño and La Niña</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While our research didn’t look at why these variations occurred, we can speculate that it may be due to the ways “<a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-campus/climate-system/australian-climate-influences/">climate drivers</a>” influence the weather in different parts of Australia. These climate drivers are phenomena created by circulation patterns in the atmosphere and ocean, and include La Niña and El Niño (or “<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-el-nino-and-la-nina-27719">ENSO</a>”), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).</p>
<p>La Niña or El Niño years are mostly felt in Queensland, northern NSW and the NT, and bring wetter or drier weather. And SAM influences the number of heatwaves in central Victoria. </p>
<h2>Improving how we fight fires</h2>
<p>Understanding what regions are vulnerable to particular conditions is important, because it can improve how fire danger is assessed. </p>
<p>It will also help better identify which parts of the landscape are most likely to experience catastrophic fires, and provide more detailed information for planning prescribed burning activities across the country.</p>
<p>Continuing research in this area is imperative as we face the challenge of managing the greater risk of bushfires under climate change.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/asking-people-to-prepare-for-fire-is-pointless-if-they-cant-afford-to-do-it-its-time-we-subsidised-fire-prevention-151913">Asking people to prepare for fire is pointless if they can't afford to do it. It's time we subsidised fire prevention</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153890/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jyoteeshkumar Reddy Papari is affiliated with ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Sharples receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. He is also a member of the ACT Rural Fire Service.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick receives funding from The Australian Research Council and is affiliated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.</span></em></p>
We know heatwaves and drought can turn bushfires into infernos, but the reasons why were poorly understood in science.
Jyoteeshkumar Reddy Papari, PhD Candidate, UNSW Sydney
Jason Sharples, Professor of Bushfire Dynamics, School of Science, UNSW Canberra, UNSW Sydney
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, ARC Future Fellow, UNSW Sydney
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/149427
2020-11-05T19:08:57Z
2020-11-05T19:08:57Z
Frequent extreme bushfires are our new reality. We need to learn how to live with smoke-filled air
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367632/original/file-20201105-17-1gih4sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C34%2C4608%2C2241&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As fires ravaged large sections of the Australian bush last summer, cities and towns all along the coast were blanketed in <a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfire-smoke-is-everywhere-in-our-cities-heres-exactly-what-you-are-inhaling-129772">toxic smoke</a>. Air pollutants were measured at <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/03/canberra-chokes-on-worlds-worst-air-quality-as-city-all-but-shut-down">unheard of levels</a> across the country.</p>
<p>Hazardous air descended on cities hundreds of kilometres away from the fires themselves. This air was the most dangerous to breathe <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/14/melbourne-choked-by-hazardous-smoke-as-bushfires-continue-to-burn-across-victoria">on the planet</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-bushfire-royal-commission-has-made-a-clarion-call-for-change-now-we-need-politics-to-follow-149158">The bushfire royal commission has made a clarion call for change. Now we need politics to follow</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The <a href="https://naturaldisaster.royalcommission.gov.au/">bushfire royal commission</a> was tabled on October 30, with some sobering findings about fires and air pollution. Unfortunately, it showed that as a nation we were not prepared to deal with this public health emergency. </p>
<p>These disasters are inevitable under climate change, and while we need to urgently act on climate change to protect future generations, we also need to make changes now to mitigate the risks that already face us.</p>
<p>Australia must get better at communicating how to identify and then stay safe in hazardous air. A national set of air quality categories would go a long way to achieving this. </p>
<h2>Over 400 deaths attributed to bushfire smoke</h2>
<p>The royal commission heard that air pollution from the summer fires likely caused more than 400 deaths. Thousands of additional hospital admissions put added strain on our hospitals. All up the added burden to our health system was estimated at <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00610-5">almost A$2 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Even in the absence of extreme natural disasters, air pollution is one of Australia’s biggest public health concerns. Pollution from all sources causes <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/burden-of-disease/abds-impact-and-causes-of-illness-death-2011/contents/highlights">thousands of deaths per year</a>. This includes emissions from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/coal-fired-pollution-killing-800-australians-a-year-report-20200825-p55ozz.html">coal-fired power stations</a>, diesel cars and wood-fired heaters.</p>
<p>Better preparing ourselves to deal with bushfire smoke will have flow-on benefits in tackling these problems. </p>
<h2>Different state, different health advice</h2>
<p>The royal commission found “there is an urgent need for national consistency in the categorisation of air quality”. At the moment, every state has their own system to categorise air quality and communicate it to the public. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-does-bushfire-smoke-affect-our-health-6-things-you-need-to-know-130126">How does bushfire smoke affect our health? 6 things you need to know</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But there are major discrepancies with how different states identify the worst air quality.</p>
<p>Air quality is the sum impact of the concentration of various unhealthy chemicals in the air. These include ozone, nitrogen and sulfur oxides, and fine particulate matter. To communicate this to the public, most countries convert these chemical concentrations into an Air Quality Index (AQI).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.epa.gov/wildfire-smoke-course/wildfire-smoke-and-your-patients-health-air-quality-index">In the US</a>, there is a standardised AQI categorisation for the whole country. </p>
<p><iframe id="aJjja" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aJjja/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In Australia, the situation is very different. Every state has its own bands, with their own colour codes. These bands trigger at different pollutant levels and carry different health advice. The Royal Commission told us this needs to be standardised, and now. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/air-quality/current-air-quality">in NSW</a> the worst air quality category is “Hazardous”, which triggers at an AQI of 200. <a href="https://www.epa.sa.gov.au/environmental_info/air_quality/air_quality_monitoring">South Australia</a>, however, only recognises “Very Poor” as the worst class of air quality, with an AQI of 150 and above.</p>
<p>During the summer bushfires, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/03/canberra-chokes-on-worlds-worst-air-quality-as-city-all-but-shut-down">AQI values as high as 5,000</a> were measured. It’s clear the highest bands of air pollution are no longer appropriate. </p>
<h2>We need a national air quality system</h2>
<p>We have faced a similar problem before. After Victoria’s Black Saturday fires in 2009, we recognised that our fire danger ratings were inadequate.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/FinalDocuments/Summary/PF/VBRC_Summary_PF-3.pdf">Black Saturday royal commission</a> found we needed a higher category for the most dangerous fire conditions. The “Catastrophic” category (“CODE RED” in Victoria) was added. It carried clear advice about what to do in such dangerous conditions, instructing people to safely leave as early as possible.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367631/original/file-20201105-19-fxltr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Fire danger rating sign in front of a grass fire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367631/original/file-20201105-19-fxltr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367631/original/file-20201105-19-fxltr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367631/original/file-20201105-19-fxltr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367631/original/file-20201105-19-fxltr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367631/original/file-20201105-19-fxltr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367631/original/file-20201105-19-fxltr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367631/original/file-20201105-19-fxltr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ‘CODE RED’ or ‘Catastrophic’ fire danger rating was added after the Black Saturday fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Something similar now needs to happen with air quality ratings. </p>
<p>When facing future extreme bushfires, we need a way to identify when catastrophic conditions have led to air so unhealthy that everyone should take precautions, such as staying indoors and wearing masks. We then need to get clear health advice out to the public.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-buildings-arent-made-to-keep-out-bushfire-smoke-heres-what-you-can-do-129367">Our buildings aren't made to keep out bushfire smoke. Here's what you can do</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A national air quality rating system could achieve this, and would also help address other important recommendations of the Royal Commission: That we need improved means of getting reliable information out to the public, along with better community education around what to do when air quality plummets. </p>
<h2>There’s work to do</h2>
<p>An Australian AQI should be featured on national weather reports and forecasts, providing important health information to the public every day of the year. At the same time it would familiarise Australians with air quality measures and actions that need to be taken to protect ourselves from unhealthy air.</p>
<p>But there is work to do. First, we need to develop a new set of air quality categories that work for the entire country, and reflects both the everyday hazards of industrial pollution and the extreme dangers of bushfires. These categories also need to be matched with sound health advice.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-bushfire-royal-commission-has-made-a-clarion-call-for-change-now-we-need-politics-to-follow-149158">The bushfire royal commission has made a clarion call for change. Now we need politics to follow</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And if we are going to report these measures more widely then we also need to get better at measuring and predicting air quality across the nation — two other important royal commission recommendations.</p>
<p>Achieving all of this won’t be easy. But if we can get it right then we will be much better placed to deal with smoke risk the next time severe bushfires inevitably happen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149427/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriel da Silva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Smoke from the Black Summer fires likely caused more than 400 deaths. A national set of air quality categories is long overdue.
Gabriel da Silva, Senior Lecturer in Chemical Engineering, The University of Melbourne
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/141983
2020-07-03T09:50:34Z
2020-07-03T09:50:34Z
The world endured 2 extra heatwave days per decade since 1950 – but the worst is yet to come
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345464/original/file-20200703-33926-1fi7zwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C34%2C1000%2C631&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The term “heatwave” is no stranger to Australians. Defined as when conditions are excessively hot for at least three days in a row, these extreme temperature events have always punctuated our climate. </p>
<p>With many of us in the thick of winter dreaming of warmer days, it’s important to remember how damaging heatwaves can be. </p>
<p>In 2009, the heatwave that preceded Black Saturday killed <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/death-toll-soared-during-victorias-heatwave-20141112-9ubd.html">374 people</a>. The economic impact on Australia’s workforce from heatwaves is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2623">US$6.2 billion a year</a> (almost AU$9 billion). And just last summer, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/28/australia-breaks-weather-records-with-hottest-ever-summer">extreme temperature records tumbled</a>, contributing to Australia’s <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/australia-devastating-bushfire-season-200331094924419.html">unprecedented bushfire season</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZH88YdIrnD4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">What are heatwaves?</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16970-7">Our new study</a> – the first worldwide assessment of heatwaves at the regional scale – found heatwaves have become longer and more frequent since 1950. And worryingly, we found this trend has accelerated. </p>
<p>We also examined a new metric: “cumulative heat”. This measures how much extra heat a heatwave can contribute, and the new perspective is eye-opening. </p>
<h2>What is ‘extra heat’?</h2>
<p>In southeast Australia’s worst heatwave season in 2009, we endured an extra heat of 80°C. Let’s explore what that means.</p>
<p>For a day to qualify as being part of a heatwave, a recorded temperature should exceed an officially declared “heatwave threshold”. </p>
<p>And cumulative heat is generally when the temperature above that threshold across all heatwave days are added up. </p>
<p>Let’s say, for example, a particular location had a heatwave threshold of around 30°C. The “extra heat” on a day where temperatures reach 35°C would be 5°C. If the heatwave lasted for three days, and all days reached 35°C, then the cumulative heat for that event would be 15°C.</p>
<h2>Another decade, another heatwave day</h2>
<p>We found almost every global region has experienced a significant increase in heatwave frequency since 1950. For example, southern Australia has experienced, on average, one extra heatwave day per decade since 1950. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/anatomy-of-a-heatwave-how-antarctica-recorded-a-20-75-c-day-last-month-134550">Anatomy of a heatwave: how Antarctica recorded a 20.75°C day last month</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, other regions have experienced much more rapid increases. The Mediterranean has seen approximately 2.5 more heatwave days per decade, while the Amazon rainforest has seen an extra 5.5 more heatwave days per decade since 1950. </p>
<p>The global average sits at approximately two extra heatwave days per decade.</p>
<h2>The last 20 years saw the worst heatwave seasons</h2>
<p>Since the 1950s, almost all regions experienced significant increases in the extra heat generated by heatwaves. </p>
<p>Over northern and southern Australia, the excess heat from heatwaves has increased by 2-3°C per decade. This is similar to other regions, such as western North America, the Amazon and the global average. </p>
<p>Alaska, Brazil and West Asia, however, have cumulative heat trends of a massive 4-5°C per decade. And, for the vast majority of the world, the worst seasons occurred in the last 20 years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345482/original/file-20200703-33939-o4fzhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345482/original/file-20200703-33939-o4fzhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345482/original/file-20200703-33939-o4fzhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345482/original/file-20200703-33939-o4fzhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345482/original/file-20200703-33939-o4fzhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345482/original/file-20200703-33939-o4fzhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345482/original/file-20200703-33939-o4fzhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345482/original/file-20200703-33939-o4fzhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the heatwave before Black Saturday, 374 people died.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also examined whether heatwaves were changing at a constant rate, or were speeding up or slowing down. With the exception of average intensity, we found heatwave trends have not only increased, but have accelerated since the 1950s. </p>
<h2>Don’t be fooled by the maths</h2>
<p>Interestingly, average heatwave intensity showed little – if any – changes since 1950. But before we all breathe a sigh of relief, this is not because climate change has stopped, or because heatwaves aren’t getting any warmer. It’s the result of a mathematical quirk. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-40-c-summer-temperatures-could-be-common-in-uk-by-2100-141479">Climate change: 40°C summer temperatures could be common in UK by 2100</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Since we’re seeing more heatwaves – which we found are also generally getting longer – there are more days to underpin the average intensity. While all heatwave days must exceed a relative extreme threshold, some days will exceed this threshold to a lesser extent than others. This brings the overall average down.</p>
<p>When we look at changes in cumulative heat, however, there’s just no denying it. Extra heat – not the average – experienced in almost all regions, is what can have adverse impacts on our health, infrastructure and ecosystems.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345486/original/file-20200703-33926-1dyoz5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345486/original/file-20200703-33926-1dyoz5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345486/original/file-20200703-33926-1dyoz5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345486/original/file-20200703-33926-1dyoz5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345486/original/file-20200703-33926-1dyoz5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345486/original/file-20200703-33926-1dyoz5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345486/original/file-20200703-33926-1dyoz5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345486/original/file-20200703-33926-1dyoz5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Amazon has endured 5.5 more heatwave days per decade since 1950.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Like nothing we’ve experienced before</h2>
<p>While the devastating impacts of heatwaves are clear, it has been difficult to consistently measure changes in heatwaves across the globe. Previous studies have <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320178280_Historical_Trends_and_Variability_in_Heat_Waves_in_the_United_Kingdom">assessed</a> regional heatwave trends, but data constraints and the spectrum of different heatwave metrics available have made it hard to compare regional changes in heatwaves. </p>
<p>Our study has closed this gap, and clearly shows heatwaves are on the rise. We are seeing more of them and they are generating more heat at an increasing pace. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weve-learned-a-lot-about-heatwaves-but-were-still-just-warming-up-68174">We've learned a lot about heatwaves, but we're still just warming up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While Australia may be no stranger to heatwaves in the past, those we see in the future under these accelerating trends will certainly be foreign. </p>
<p>For example, a 2014 study found that depending on where you are in Australia, anywhere between 15 and 50 <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/27/15/5851/34798">extra heatwave days</a> will occur by 2100 compared to the second half of the 20th century. </p>
<p>We can still abate those trends if we work collectively, effectively and urgently to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141983/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick receives funding from The Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>
Heatwaves have become longer, hotter and more frequent. This trend is accelerating from climate change.
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, ARC Future Fellow, UNSW Sydney
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/128632
2020-01-01T21:03:11Z
2020-01-01T21:03:11Z
‘I can still picture the faces’: Black Saturday firefighters want you to listen to them, not call them ‘heroes’
<p>Evocative <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-bushfires-intensify-we-need-to-acknowledge-the-strain-on-our-volunteers-127517">images of volunteer firefighters</a> fill our newspapers and television screens. As we look with gratitude into their ash-stained faces, we want to see a modern-day hero looking back at us. </p>
<p>But firefighters don’t want us to see heroes, because calling them heroes overstates their ability to control fires and downplays the long-term psychological impacts of fighting fires.</p>
<p>That’s what we’ve learned after interviewing Black Saturday firefighters ten years after the tragedy, as part of an ongoing research project exploring the role of memory and commemoration in organisational planning.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-bushfires-intensify-we-need-to-acknowledge-the-strain-on-our-volunteers-127517">As bushfires intensify, we need to acknowledge the strain on our volunteers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As we listen to their recollections of that day, there is no doubt they engaged in heroic acts and need to be remembered for their bravery. But when we laud firefighters as heroes, we fail to acknowledge the ongoing impact of the fires. As one firefighter told us: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Each year on the Black Saturday anniversary every community group wanted to have a thank you event and they were getting frustrated by the firefighters not turning up. </p>
<p>What they couldn’t understand was what the firefighters were physically and mentally going through at that time.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Memorials do the remembering for us</h2>
<p>Government funding for firefighting needs to make provision for counselling services for firefighters dealing with the long-term psychological effects of fighting fires.</p>
<p>Several firefighters talked about “deliberately trying not to remember because it is so difficult”. For others, remembering together was part of the healing process.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>After the 10th anniversary, I had a bit of a meltdown. We’d arranged a gathering of that group of people who were very close on the day and I wasn’t going to go. I just had a picture of myself sitting in the corner crying my eyes out all night and it’s the first time that group had come together since the first anniversary and as it turned out it was brilliant. </p>
<p>It was exactly what we needed. It was a very close group of people who had a lot of trust in each other.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Over the past decade, memorials have been erected in communities affected by the Black Saturday fires. But firefighters we spoke to were concerned that creating memorials allowed communities and authorities to relegate the fires and their impact to the past. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.soc.24.1.105">Scholars of commemoration</a> have observed that giving monumental form to memory can enable us to divest ourselves of the obligation to remember. It’s as if the memorial does the remembering for us. </p>
<p>Rather than building memorials, firefighting organisations need to commemorate through forms of collective communing, where knowledge is shared by older, experienced hands with new firefighters. </p>
<p>This communal commemoration could build on the informal forms of commemoration that firefighters told us they prefer – sitting around the fire truck, sharing stories. <a href="https://www.emv.vic.gov.au/news/linton-staff-ride">Staff rides</a>, for instance, a tactical walk retracing the steps of those involved in a major fire, is an effective way of passing on knowledge while also remembering and honouring the work of firefighters.</p>
<h2>Making sure it never happens again</h2>
<p>Black Saturday firefighters we spoke to urged memorialisation to elicit a call to action. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Memorials do have a profound effect. The Kinglake memorial for me is extremely powerful in terms of reminding us of the scale of the tragedy, the names – I can still picture the faces. It is deeply emotional and powerful. </p>
<p>But how we can translate that powerful emotion into a resilience and a determination to make sure it never happens again?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Firefighters don’t want a roll call of heroes, but for communities to remember the lessons we have learnt from <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-to-take-refuge-in-your-home-during-a-bushfire-72370">past fires</a> and to ensure they have a bushfire plan and to heed warnings to leave. </p>
<p>As one firefighter said about the Black Saturday anniversary:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It should have been an opportunity to remind people of the dangers of bushfires and what can happen and the limitations of an organisation like ours, and to use that in a positive way to reinforce future preparedness rather than constantly looking back at the tragedy and not learning anything from it. </p>
<p>It was a national tragedy owned by everybody and we should be able to build up a cultural memory.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Collective memory carries an ethical obligation. In commemorating firefighters as heroes, we can fall into the danger of overstating their ability to control fires, absolving ourselves of <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-trial-by-fire-why-we-still-need-to-tackle-complacency-21289">responsibility</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/70-years-before-black-saturday-the-birth-of-the-victorian-cfa-was-a-sad-tale-of-politics-as-usual-111080">70 years before Black Saturday, the birth of the Victorian CFA was a sad tale of politics as usual</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Rather than simply valorising and memorialising firefighters as heroes, all levels of governments need to accept responsibility for their role in mitigating future bushfire impacts. </p>
<p>This means ensuring the landscape is managed appropriately, that our firefighters have the resources to fight fires, and that there is effective, science-based climate policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128632/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graham Dwyer receives funding from the Swinburne Seed Grant Scheme of which the Country Fire Authority are an industry partner. His funding for this project is affiliated with the Social Innovation Research Institute at the Swinburne University of Technology and he has previously received funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Co-Operative Research Centre. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leanne Cutcher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
In commemorating firefighters as heroes, we can fall into the danger of overstating their ability to control fires, absolving ourselves of responsibility.
Leanne Cutcher, Professor, University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney
Graham Dwyer, Lecturer at the Centre for Social Impact, Swinburne University of Technology
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/111245
2019-02-06T19:25:44Z
2019-02-06T19:25:44Z
What has Australia learned from Black Saturday?
<p>Black Saturday was a day like no other; it will be forever remembered in the history of bushfire disasters in Australia. The fires burned about 300,000 hectares in a single day; 173 human lives were lost and more than 2,000 houses were destroyed in one afternoon.</p>
<p>Australia was shocked at the scale of the destruction. Questions were soon being asked about how this could happen in the modern world, what could have been done to reduce the loss of lives and physical destruction, and what can be done to stop this happening again.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-firestorm-the-health-implications-of-returning-to-a-bushfire-zone-93647">After the firestorm: the health implications of returning to a bushfire zone</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The many reports, studies and inquiries in the ten years since Black Saturday have created a new regime for assessing and dealing with fires. While this has meant many improvements in how we communicate and coordinate in the face of bushfires, I believe it has also resulted in an overemphasis on accountability and technology at the expense of effective fire control. </p>
<h2>The aftermath</h2>
<p>As days passed and the fires were still being fully controlled, attention turned to capturing information about the fires so we could better understand what had happened. Victims and people affected by the fires were interviewed by journalists and social scientists, welfare workers and counsellors, friends and family. Nobody, at the time of the fires, had full knowledge of what had happened, so the collective knowledge pieced the puzzle together.</p>
<p>Fire scientists and meteorologist were also trying to capture as much information as possible about the fires and what drove them. This was a unique opportunity to collect information about fire and weather that could never be reproduced in experiments.</p>
<p>Within a few days of the fire, the Victorian premier had announced a royal commission to investigate the cause of the fires, the factors leading to the unprecedented level of death and destruction, and the institutional response before, during and after the fires. The commission ran for 18 months, heard from 434 witnesses, cost more than A$90 million and <a href="http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports/Final-Report.html">produced 67 recommendations</a>.</p>
<h2>What has changed?</h2>
<p>Research and the royal commission significantly increased our understanding of what occurred on Black Saturday. Research using these fires still continues <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/publications/biblio/bnh-5336">ten years after the event</a>. The knowledge gained has resulted in better weather forecasting, <a href="http://www.delwp.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/319531/DELWP_SaferTogether_FINAL_17Nov15.pdf">better communication</a> about fires and weather to the public, better coordination and cooperation between emergency response agencies and public land managers, and better <a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/planning-and-bushfire-management-overlay">building and planning regulations for fire-prone areas</a>. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the close scrutiny of fire and land management agencies has led to greater emphasis on following standard processes and recording all actions and information used during fire events. This has led to a lot of time and resources being allocated to accountability at the expense of effectiveness in reducing bushfire impacts. This is clearly not a deliberate intention of the various agencies, but is the reality of a highly political and litigious world.</p>
<p>Another unintended development has been the increased reliance on technology for both fighting fires and communication. Many people in the bushfire-prone areas demand reliable access to warnings and fire developments, so there has been a rapid expansion of the mobile phone and internet networks across Victoria. However, just because people have access to such information does not ensure that they will respond in ways that emergency response agencies expect.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-wind-and-heat-when-fire-seasons-start-earlier-and-last-longer-101663">Drought, wind and heat: when fire seasons start earlier and last longer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Other technology such as bigger, stronger fire trucks and the use of aircraft for water bombing has reduced the extent of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Sbi5tdNoXs">dry firefighting techniques</a> – that is, controlling fire using firebreaks, hand tools and backburning with little or no water used. This has increased the number of fires growing to damaging sizes and escaping control lines.</p>
<p>This failing has not been fully recognised. Partly, that’s because any “technology” is easily taken by the media, public and politicians as an improvement, when in fact it may not be.</p>
<h2>The lessons we’ve yet to learn</h2>
<p>Since Black Saturday, use of the concept of “<a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/fire-danger-ratings">bushfire risk</a>” has been growing. This makes it clear that bushfires in Australia are a constant threat and the <a href="http://www.delwp.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/318879/DELWP0017_BushfireRiskProfiles_rebrand_v5.pdf">risk is never zero</a>.</p>
<p>The “risk concept” allows public agencies, private groups and communities to reduce bushfire risk to a level that they can afford and are willing to accept. However, how bushfire risk is assessed and communicated, and how trade-offs are negotiated, still has a long way to go if bushfire risk is to be a truly “shared responsibility” as the royal commission recommended.</p>
<p>Another complication is that public agencies have a regular turnover of staff. This makes it more difficult to establish trusted relationships between public agencies and private individuals.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/future-bushfires-will-be-worse-we-need-to-adapt-now-53041">Future bushfires will be worse: we need to adapt now</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>An event like Black Saturday will occur again. The terrain, vegetation, climate and weather patterns in southeastern Australia ensure that. Climate change will <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/burningissuereport2015/">increase this risk</a>. </p>
<p>When it does happen again, the extent of what we learned from Black Saturday will be judged by the impact of that event. We should not expect there will be no loss of lives and property in future massive blazes, but we should expect it will be significantly less than Black Saturday.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111245/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Tolhurst receives funding from various Australian fire agencies including CFA Victoria, RFS NSW, DELWP Victoria. </span></em></p>
The Black Saturday fires transformed the way Australia responds to bushfires.
Kevin Tolhurst AM, Senior Lecturer, Fire Ecology and Management, The University of Melbourne
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/111064
2019-02-06T19:24:50Z
2019-02-06T19:24:50Z
Climate change is poised to deliver more Black Saturdays in decades to come
<p>Ten years ago, on February 7, 2009, the Black Saturday bushfires killed 173 people. More than 2,000 houses were destroyed in Victoria, including at Kilmore, Kinglake, Vectis (Horsham), Narbethong, Marysville, Strathewan, Beechworth, Labertouche (Bunyip), Coleraine, Weerite, Redesdale, Harkaway, Upper Ferntree Gully, Maiden Gully, Bendigo, Eaglehawk, Lynbrook, St Andrews, Flowerdale, Narre Warren, Callignee, and my home town of Churchill, where my mother and father still lived. Their home wasn’t burned, but many of their neighbours were badly affected by the worst bushfire day in Australia’s history.</p>
<p>A week before, my uncle and aunt had to seek refuge at Mum and Dad’s place when a fire ember landed in their front yard during the Boolarra bushfires. Mum has since passed and Dad still lives in Churchill.</p>
<p>The climate is changing due to human induced greenhouse gas emissions, and this means more bushfire danger days in what is already one of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-06/fire-chiefs-around-the-country-warn-australia-of-bleak-outlook/10195114">most fire-prone countries in the world</a>. Unfortunately, we have not done enough to curb climate change and the situation is getting worse. </p>
<p>Climate change means more days of extreme heat, longer heatwaves and more frequent droughts. Droughts now occur further south than in the past and have been increasing in Australia’s southeast, including Tasmania. The records continue to tumble, and the evidence of dangerous climate change continues to mount.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fires-are-increasing-in-warming-world-but-a-new-model-could-help-us-predict-them-54466">Fires are increasing in warming world, but a new model could help us predict them</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Back in 2008, John Brumby was Premier of Victoria and Kevin Rudd was Prime Minister. I was working on climate change for the Victorian government, developing projections for increased risk of bushfires. A <a href="http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/hennessykj_2005b.pdf">2005 study</a> had already predicted an increase in fire weather risk throughout most of southeastern Australia over the coming decades, with “very high” and “extreme” fire danger ratings likely to increase in frequency by 4-25% by 2020 and 15-70% by 2050.</p>
<p>There has been more research in this area, although certainly not enough, given the huge stakes. A <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/fullreportbushfire.pdf">2007 report</a> for the Climate Institute of Australia predicted increases in annual average fire danger of up to 30% by 2050, and a potential trebling in the number of days per year where the uppermost values of the index are exceeded. The largest changes are predicted for the arid and semi-arid interior of New South Wales and northern Victoria.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257364/original/file-20190206-86205-1hm3gg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257364/original/file-20190206-86205-1hm3gg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257364/original/file-20190206-86205-1hm3gg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=117&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257364/original/file-20190206-86205-1hm3gg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=117&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257364/original/file-20190206-86205-1hm3gg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=117&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257364/original/file-20190206-86205-1hm3gg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=147&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257364/original/file-20190206-86205-1hm3gg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=147&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257364/original/file-20190206-86205-1hm3gg9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=147&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Projected increases in the number of days with very high or extreme fire weather for selected years. This study was based on scenarios producing 0.4°C, 1.0°C and 2.9°C temperature rises, which will respectively be reached by the years indicated, without emissions reduction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucas et al. 2007</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="http://www.garnautreview.org.au/2008-review.html">2008 Garnaut Climate Change Review</a> also warned that fire seasons will begin earlier, end slightly later, and generally be more intense. “This effect increases over time but should be directly observable by 2020,” it said.</p>
<p>In 2015, a <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.1.6/cms_page_media/168/CCIA_2015_NRM_TechnicalReport_WEB.pdf">further study</a> by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology concluded that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Projections of warming and drying in southern and eastern Australia will lead to increases in [forest fire danger index] and a greater number of days with severe fire danger. In a business as usual scenario (worst case, driest scenario), severe fire days increase by up to 160-190% by 2090.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>By combining all of this research, I created the graph below.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256958/original/file-20190203-193213-ecavr5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256958/original/file-20190203-193213-ecavr5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256958/original/file-20190203-193213-ecavr5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256958/original/file-20190203-193213-ecavr5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256958/original/file-20190203-193213-ecavr5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256958/original/file-20190203-193213-ecavr5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256958/original/file-20190203-193213-ecavr5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256958/original/file-20190203-193213-ecavr5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Projected annual number of days of very high or extreme bushfire danger.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO/BoM/Bushfire CRC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This shows that while there is some uncertainty as to the extent of increase in the number of bushfire danger days in southeastern Australia, the situation is undoubtedly getting worse, and it’s time for action.</p>
<p>In 2017, the independent Climate Council published a <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/vicbushfires/">report</a> on Victoria’s growing bushfire threat, which made several stark findings and recommendations:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Climate change is increasing the risk of bushfires in Victoria and lengthening fire seasons.</p></li>
<li><p>Victoria is the state most affected by bushfires, and is on the front line of increasing bushfire risk.</p></li>
<li><p>The economic cost of bushfires in Victoria is an estimated A$180 million a year, and this is predicted to more than double by 2050.</p></li>
<li><p>Bushfires will continue to adversely affect human and environmental health.</p></li>
<li><p>In the future, Victoria is very likely to experience an increased number of days with extreme fire danger. Communities and emergency services across Victoria must be prepared.</p></li>
<li><p>Reducing greenhouse emissions is vital for protecting Australians.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Risk to water supplies</h2>
<p>Our grandfathers and grandmothers had the wisdom to build amazing water infrastructure, protected by the “closed catchments” that give Melbourne and Victoria some of the best water in the world. Bushfires are a major risk to these water supplies – particularly in the catchments of major dams such as the Thomson. </p>
<p>A bushfire followed by a downpour that washes ash into the dam could potentially force the closure of the trillion-litre capacity Thomson reservoir, making it unusable for months. Firefighters have been battling exactly this kind of blaze at <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-01/thomson-dam-fire-threaten-melbourne-water-supply-desalination/10770718">Mount Baw Baw</a> in recent days and at the time of writing the situation has improved.</p>
<p>Major bushfires often occur in time of severe drought. Black Saturday itself happened towards the end of the 15-year <a href="https://www.water.vic.gov.au/climate-change/millennium-drought-report">Millennium Drought</a>, when Victoria’s water supplies were already strained. I remember vividly the then chief executive of the Melbourne Water Corporation urging the government to deal with any fire in the Thomson Dam catchment immediately, given the threat to Melbourne’s water.</p>
<p>Fortunately, amid the devastation of Black Saturday we avoided major disruption to our water supplies. But this risk poses a huge challenge to both firefighters and policy-makers. The rule is that protection of human life is ranked above assets and infrastructure, and rightly so. But when there is a clear and present danger of towns and cities going without water, it’s also true that safeguarding water means saving human lives in the ensuing days. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-bitter-lesson-of-the-californian-fires-106842">The bitter lesson of the Californian fires</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Any way you look at it, these are hard questions. On our current trajectory, we are heading for terrible trade-offs.</p>
<p>In 2050 my daughter Astrid and my son Atticus – Mum and Dad’s grandchildren – will be 45 and 43, respectively. I hope it is not too late for our leaders in Canberra, Davos and throughout the world to wake up and take urgent action to limit global warming 1.5°C. That would mean that the most fearful predictions of our bushfire future never come to pass.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111064/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Hamilton advises governments, businesses and communities on climate change, water and renewable energy. Scott is affiliated with H4 CO PTY LTD and is a panel member on the Australia-German Energy Transition Hub (hosted at University of Melbourne). Scott is also a member of the Australian Labor Party.</span></em></p>
Black Saturday in 2009 was Australia’s worst bushfire tragedy. But climate projections predict more bushfire danger in the future, threatening our water supplies as well as homes.
Scott Hamilton, Strategic Advisory Panel Member, Australian-German Energy Transition Hub, The University of Melbourne
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/111180
2019-02-06T19:23:56Z
2019-02-06T19:23:56Z
Ten years ago, climate adaptation research was gaining steam. Today, it’s gutted
<p>Ten years ago, on February 7, 2009, I sat down in my apartment in central Melbourne to write a job application. All of the blinds were down, and the windows tightly closed. Outside it was 47°C. We had no air conditioning. The heat seeped through the walls. </p>
<p>When I stepped outside, the air ripped at my nose and throat, like a fan-forced sauna. It felt ominous. With my forestry training, and some previous experience of bad fire weather in Tasmania, I knew any fires that day would be catastrophic. They were. Black Saturday became Australia’s worst-ever bushfire disaster. </p>
<p>I was applying for the position of Director of the <a href="http://www.vcccar.org.au/">Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research (VCCCAR)</a>. I was successful and started the job later that year.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-build-homes-to-survive-bushfires-so-why-dont-we-35899">We can build homes to survive bushfires, so why don't we?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The climate in Victoria over the previous 12 years had been harsh. Between 1997 and 2009 the state suffered its worst drought on record, and major bushfires in 2003 and 2006-07 burned more than 2 million hectares of forest. Then came Black Saturday, and the year after that saw the start of Australia’s wettest two-year period on record, bringing major floods to the state’s north, as well as to vast swathes of the rest of the country. </p>
<p>In Victoria alone, hundreds of millions of dollars a year were being spent on response and recovery from climate-related events. In government, the view was that things couldn’t go on that way. As climate change accelerated, these costs would only rise. </p>
<p>We had to get better at preparing for, and avoiding, the future impacts of rapid climate change. This is what is what we mean by the term “climate adaptation”.</p>
<h2>Facing up to disasters</h2>
<p>A decade after Black Saturday, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-floods-are-so-huge-the-only-way-to-track-them-is-from-space-111083">record floods in Queensland</a>, severe bushfires in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-02/tasmanian-bushfires-from-the-air-satellite-images/10771528">Tasmania</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-04/victoria-bushfires-hepburns-schools-closed-gippsland-warnings/10775734">Victoria</a>, widespread <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2018-in-weather-drought-heat-and-fire-109575">heatwaves and drought</a>, and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-darling-river-is-simply-not-supposed-to-dry-out-even-in-drought-109880">crisis in the Murray-Darling Basin</a>, it is timely to reflect on the state of adaptation policy and practice in Australia.</p>
<p>In 2009 the Rudd Labor government had taken up the challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. With Malcolm Turnbull as opposition leader, we seemed headed for a bipartisan national solution ahead of the Copenhagen climate summit in December. Governments, meanwhile, agreed that adaptation was more a state and local responsibility. Different parts of Australia faced different climate risks. Communities and industries in those regions had different vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities and needed locally driven initiatives. </p>
<p>Led by the Brumby government in Victoria, state governments developed an <a href="https://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/Australian-Government-2007a.pdf">adaptation policy framework</a> and sought federal financial support to implement it. This included research on climate adaptation. The federal government put A$50 million into a new <a href="https://www.nccarf.edu.au/">National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility</a>, based in Queensland, alongside the <a href="https://research.csiro.au/climate/">CSIRO Adaptation Flagship</a> which was set up in 2007.</p>
<p>The Victorian Government invested A$5 million in VCCCAR. The state faced local risks: more heatwaves, floods, storms, bushfires and rising sea levels, and my colleagues and I found there was plenty of information on climate impacts. The question was: what can policy-makers, communities, businesses and individuals do in practical terms to plan and prepare?</p>
<h2>Getting to work</h2>
<p>From 2009 until June 2014, researchers from across disciplines in four universities collaborated with state and local governments, industry and the community to lay the groundwork for better decisions in a changing climate. </p>
<p>We held 20 regional and metropolitan consultation events and hosted visiting international experts on urban design, flood, drought, and community planning. Annual forums brought together researchers, practitioners, consultants and industry to share knowledge and engage in collective discussion on adaptation options. We worked with eight government departments, driving the message that adapting to climate change wasn’t just an “environmental” problem and needed responses across government.</p>
<p>All involved considered the VCCCAR a success. It improved knowledge about climate adaptation options and confidence in making climate decisions. The results fed into Victoria’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201406/r1285547_17444602.pdf">2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan</a>, as well as policies for urban design and natural resource management, and practices in the local government and community sectors. I hoped the centre would continue to provide a foundation for future adaptation policy and practice.</p>
<h2>Funding cuts</h2>
<p>In the 2014 state budget the Napthine government chose not to continue funding the VCCCAR. Soon after, the Abbott federal government reduced the funding and scope of its national counterpart, and funding ended last year.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, CSIRO chief executive Larry Marshall argued that climate science was less important than the need for innovation and turning inventions into benefits for society. Along with other areas of climate science, the Adaptation Flagship was cut, its staff let go or redirected. From a strong presence in 2014, climate adaptation has become almost invisible in the national research landscape.</p>
<p>In the current chaos of climate policy, adaptation has been downgraded. There is a <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/adaptation/publications/national-climate-resilience-and-adaptation-strategy">national strategy</a> but little high-level policy attention. State governments have shifted their focus to energy, investing in renewables and energy security. Climate change was <a href="https://theconversation.com/damning-royal-commission-report-leaves-no-doubt-that-we-all-lose-if-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-fails-110908">largely ignored</a> in developing the Murray-Darling Basin Plan.</p>
<p>Despite this lack of policy leadership, many organisations are adapting. <a href="https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/about-council/vision-goals/eco-city/Pages/climate-change-adaptation-strategy.aspx">Local governments</a> with the resources are addressing their particular challenges, and building <a href="https://resilientmelbourne.com.au/">resilience</a>. Our public transport now functions better in <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-s-next-task-is-to-stop-the-grid-going-off-the-rails-20190131-p50ux5.html">heatwaves</a>, and climate change is being considered in new transport infrastructure. The public is more aware of heatwave risks, and there is investment in <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/">emergency management research</a>, but this is primarily focused on disaster response. </p>
<p>Large companies making long-term investments, such as <a href="https://www.nccarf.edu.au/business/publications/brisbane-airport-new-parallel-runway-project">Brisbane Airport</a>, have improved their capacity to consider future climate risks. There are better planning <a href="https://www.climaterisk.com.au/">tools</a> and <a href="http://xdi.systems/">systems</a> for business, and the <a href="https://igcc.org.au/">finance</a> and <a href="http://www.insurancecouncil.com.au/issue-submissions/issues/climate-change">insurance</a> sectors are seriously considering these risks in investment decisions. Smart <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-farmers-are-adapting-to-climate-change-76939">rural producers</a> are diversifying, using their resources differently, or shifting to different growing environments.</p>
<h2>Struggling to cope</h2>
<p>But much more is needed. Old buildings and cooling systems are not built to cope with our current temperatures. Small businesses are <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/business/small-business/out-of-control-businesses-fear-heatwave-havoc-will-continue-20190128-p50u2l.html">suffering</a>, but few have capacity to analyse their vulnerabilities or assess responses. The <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/why-are-there-power-outages-in-a-heatwave-20180129-522q4.html">power generation system</a> is under increasing pressure. Warning systems have improved but there is still much to do to design warnings in a way that ensures an <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/hazardnotes/57">appropriate public reaction</a>. Too many people still adopt a “she’ll be right” attitude and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/28/queensland-bushfires-evacuation-order-as-80-blazes-rage-across-state">ignore warnings</a>, or leave it until the last minute to evacuate. </p>
<p>In an internal submission to government in 2014 we proposed a Victorian Climate Resilience Program to provide information and tools for small businesses. Other parts of the program included frameworks for managing risks for local governments, urban greening, building community leadership for resilience, and new conservation approaches in landscapes undergoing rapid change.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2017-budget-has-axed-research-to-help-australia-adapt-to-climate-change-77477">The 2017 budget has axed research to help Australia adapt to climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Investment in climate adaptation pays off. Small investments now can generate payoffs of 3-5:1 in reduced future impacts. A recent <a href="http://australianbusinessroundtable.com.au/assets/Building%20an%20Open%20Platform%20for%20Natural%20Disaster%20Resilience%20Decisions%20CLEAN.pdf">business round table report</a> indicates that carefully targeted research and information provision could save state and federal governments A$12.2 billion and reduce the overall economic costs of natural disasters (which are projected to rise to A$23 billion a year by 2050) by more than 50%.</p>
<p>Ten years on from Black Saturday, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5">climate change is accelerating</a>. The 2030 climate forecasts made in 2009 have come true in half the time. Today we are living through more and hotter heatwaves, longer droughts, uncontrollable fires, intense downpours and significant shifts in seasonal rainfall patterns. </p>
<p>Yes, policy-makers need to focus on reducing greenhouse emissions, but we also need a similar focus on adaptation to maintain functioning and prosperous communities, economies and ecosystems under this rapid change. It is vital that we rebuild our research capacity and learn from our past experiences, to support the partnerships needed to make climate-smart decisions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rod Keenan was Director of the Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research from 2009-2014 and has received research funding from the Victorian Government, the Australian Research Council, the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research and the forest industry. He was a member of the Australian Academy of Science Committee that undertook the Australian Climate Science Capability Review in 2016
</span></em></p>
In the years after Black Saturday, climate adaptation research was in full swing, creating knowledge in how to deal with the risks. But a series of funding cuts have left this research in decline.
Rod Keenan, Professor, The University of Melbourne
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/71008
2017-02-07T00:44:57Z
2017-02-07T00:44:57Z
We can learn a lot from disasters, and we now know some areas don’t recover
<p>Natural disasters were once regarded as a problem for the developing world, with reports of these rarely leading the news. Hurricanes <a href="http://www.datacenterresearch.org/data-resources/katrina/facts-for-impact/">Katrina</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-sandy-could-be-the-october-surprise-of-the-2012-presidential-election-10425">Sandy</a> punctured that insularity in the US thanks to a malevolent combination of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/27/extreme-weather-already-on-increase-due-to-climate-change-study-finds">extreme weather events</a> and population growth – especially in highly <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf">inappropriate places like storm-surge zones</a>.</p>
<p>Elsewhere, seismic events struck the heart of major cities such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/christchurch-five-years-on-have-politicians-helped-or-hindered-the-earthquake-recovery-53727">Christchurch</a> and <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/kobe-earthquake-20th-anniversary-facts-about-devastating-1995-great-hanshin-earthquake-1483786">Kobe</a> where the cities’ structures were <a href="https://theconversation.com/earthquakes-dont-kill-our-collapsing-structures-do-so-how-can-we-build-them-to-stay-up-64443">woefully ill-prepared</a>. </p>
<p>Away from the big cities, though, disasters can still be “over the horizon” events. Remoteness from centres of economic and political power <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/disa.12212/full">impedes long-term recovery</a>. Some towns never recover.</p>
<p>Rebuilding small communities on the same site in the same way seldom works. Instead, this lengthens the recovery or prevents it happening altogether.</p>
<p>Disasters hit rural, remote and small fringe communities particularly hard. The impacts range from property and infrastructural damage, deaths and injuries, stock, crop and other agricultural losses to destruction of wildlife habitats and even iconic landscapes. </p>
<p>In some places the local economy may consist of little more than one or two “industries”. Examples include <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marysville,_Victoria#Black_Saturday_bushfires">Marysville</a> in central Victoria (retail and hospitality and still not recovered from the <a href="http://www.nma.gov.au/online_features/defining_moments/featured/black-saturday-bushfires">Black Saturday</a> bushfires of February 7, 2009), <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilcannia">Wilcannia</a> in western New South Wales (arts and crafts), and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malanda,_Queensland">Malanda</a> (timber) and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millaa_Millaa,_Queensland">Millaa Millaa</a> (sugar) in north Queensland. The economic resilience of these towns is wafer-thin.</p>
<p>These small places are less able to respond quickly to disasters because they are not critical parts of the global economic infrastructure and have a less powerful political voice. They also have less capacity to tap into the human capital and material resources of larger, more recognised centres. </p>
<h2>Living in the danger zones</h2>
<p>The simple dichotomy between rural and city, though, is becoming muddied. Particularly in the developed world, once-isolated regions are undergoing urbanisation. </p>
<p>“Sea-changers” and “tree-changers” are <a href="https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/natural-disaster-losses-driven-by-a-building-boom-in-americas-red-zones/?partner=rss&emc=rss">moving in unprecedented numbers</a> from cities in Australia and the western US to non-metro and peri-urban areas prone to storm surge and fire. </p>
<p>These are not “rural and remote areas” in a traditional sense; they are often closely connected with cities that can buffer them from the worst economic effects of a disaster. But fringe areas of major cities have poorer infrastructure, which hampers recovery. An example is the holiday location of Queens in New York, where one of the authors was engaged in the recovery program. The <a href="http://www.citylab.com/work/2016/02/can-co-ops-help-the-rockaways-recover/471252/">area has struggled</a> after Sandy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155779/original/image-20170207-27176-16sv4vs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155779/original/image-20170207-27176-16sv4vs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155779/original/image-20170207-27176-16sv4vs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155779/original/image-20170207-27176-16sv4vs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155779/original/image-20170207-27176-16sv4vs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155779/original/image-20170207-27176-16sv4vs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155779/original/image-20170207-27176-16sv4vs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155779/original/image-20170207-27176-16sv4vs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Seafront homes in Queens, New York, bore the brunt of the damage inflicted by Superstorm Sandy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ed Blakely</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As well as not being as well resourced, these “<a href="http://fpf.forestry.oregonstate.edu/system/files/Stewartetal_definingWUI.pdf">wildland–urban interfaces</a>” can be <a href="http://www.bushfirecrc.com/news/living-urban-edge">more hazardous places</a> to live. In particular, the setting of new dwellings in treed landscapes creates a greater <a href="https://theconversation.com/living-with-fire-deciding-where-to-build-19377">fire hazard</a>. Residences are often located away from good roads, which hinders access and makes fires harder to deal with. </p>
<p>Being in city workplaces for much of the day, new inhabitants often have little feel for the local ecology. As a result, they may alter vegetation and wildlife patterns. This has marked impacts on the potential for fire and flooding. </p>
<p>City-siders may also import pets that endanger local flora and wildlife. They may even think they can “<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-deadly-bushfire-gamble-risk-your-life-or-bet-your-house-21968">fight rather than flee</a>”. They often do not know how or where to evacuate, which heightens the risks to fire and rescue personnel.</p>
<h2>Response, recovery and rebuilding</h2>
<p>There are two distinct post-disaster phases: first-response rescue and relief; and later recovery and rebuilding. Rebuilding clearly is an intrinsic part of recovery, but recovery also requires <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-years-on-from-black-saturday-most-survivors-are-doing-ok-33600">social and cultural rehabilitation</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, the distinction between rescue/emergency/response and recovery/rebuilding depends on the area in question: the recovery phase in developed countries may not begin until the response phase has run its course. After the Black Saturday bushfires in Kinglake and Marysville, for example, the coroner <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coroner-identifies-66-bushfire-victims/news-story/60bc1af62b428691a2b47a415834e071">first had to complete her work</a>, which took several weeks. </p>
<p>The impact of a single event may be compounded by the triggering of one or two further events. For instance, the January 2003 fires in Canberra led to <a href="http://www.environmentcommissioner.act.gov.au/publications/soe/2003actreport/indicators03/fire03">pollution of the city’s water supply</a> following torrential rain in the catchments. </p>
<p>Water authorities, made wiser by this event, acted to protect Melbourne’s drinking water after Black Saturday. They <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/dash-to-save-drinking-water-20090216-899t.html">transferred water</a> from dams in fire-affected catchments to unaffected reservoirs.</p>
<h2>Can targets promote recovery?</h2>
<p>The organisation of the recovery after the Kobe earthquake in Japan in 1995 provides a developmental model for measuring progress. In particular, Hyogo Prefecture was able to meet three key targets:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>rebuild all damaged housing units in three years;</p></li>
<li><p>remove all temporary housing within five years; and</p></li>
<li><p>complete physical recovery in ten years. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Having targets was critical to directing and motivating all the stakeholders, including the national government’s investment. This proved to be the foundation for Japan’s approach to recovery following the 1995 earthquake. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, it usually takes a string of major disasters for governments to start integrating disaster resilience and recovery into their legislative programs in any meaningful way. A rethink is overdue of <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-7717/earlyview">where disaster response emphases should lie</a>, especially in economically well-resourced countries given the rising incidence of major disasters within them. </p>
<h2>Preparation aids recovery</h2>
<p>A focus on <a href="https://theconversation.com/build-disaster-proof-homes-before-storms-strike-not-afterward-61947">hardening structures</a> provides a better return in limiting damage. Italy has had at least <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/25/questions-mount-how-italy-remains-so-unprepared-for-deadly-earthquake">eight devastating earthquakes</a> in the past 40 years. </p>
<p>Despite this, less than 20% of renovated buildings comply with earthquake standards – even though it would add hardly anything to the final bill.</p>
<p>Preparedness for disaster improves economic recovery should such sites (or their like) fall victim to extreme events again. The NYS Respond Commission <a href="http://www.governor.ny.gov/sites/governor.ny.gov/files/archive/assets/documents/NYS-Ready-Respond-Update_10282103.pdf">adopted measures</a> focused on “improving the strength and resilience of New York State’s emergency preparedness and response capabilities” after Superstorm Sandy. </p>
<p>As the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-are-natural-disasters-on-the-rise-39232">frequency of disasters rises</a>, few countries in the developed world have chosen to establish standing national recovery programs or authorities. Authorities should also mandate shifting settlements away from high-risk zones, such as <a href="http://www.planning.vic.gov.au/bushfire-protection/building-in-bushfire-prone-areas">ridges</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/nyregion/resilient-design-american-copper-buildings-weather-flooding.html?_r=1">floodplains and shorefronts</a>. </p>
<p>The costs of failing to act are likely to cripple future government budgets and seriously impact economic growth. Australia’s Productivity Commission has <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/search?collection=productivity-commission-web&form=inquiries&gscope1=22&query=natural+disaster+funding">recommended</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Australian government post-disaster support to state and territory governments (states) should be reduced, and support for mitigation increased.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Don’t just rebuild, reposition!</h2>
<p>Disasters offer a one-off opportunity for renewal of a different kind, rather than more of the same. Examples are <a href="http://www.ubcpress.ca/books/pdf/chapters/2010/ReconstructingKobe.pdf">Kobe’s repositioning</a> from a port to a high-technology-oriented economy after the 1995 earthquake, or <a href="https://theconversation.com/disappearing-acts-reflecting-on-new-orleans-10-years-after-katrina-46834">New Orleans</a> reinventing itself as a centre for medical research after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. </p>
<p>In addition, disasters provide opportunities to toughen buildings and other infrastructure to <a href="http://www.insurancecouncil.com.au/issue-submissions/issues/catastrophe-events">withstand future events</a> and even to embody low-carbon measures.</p>
<p>Recovery needs to be treated differently according to place, history and size. It’s not about getting back to where you were, but rather grasping a repositioning opportunity to create a better, more resilient place. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article draws on the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-7717/earlyview">authors’ paper</a>, Assessing non-metro recovery across two continents: issues and limitations, which appeared in the September 2016 issue of Disasters.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71008/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Rebuilding small communities on the same site in the same way seldom works. It’s not about getting back to where you were, but rather grasping the opportunity to create a more resilient place.
Ed Blakely, Extraordinary Professor of Economic Policy, North-West University
Peter Fisher, Adjunct Professor, Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/53041
2016-01-20T19:22:30Z
2016-01-20T19:22:30Z
Future bushfires will be worse: we need to adapt now
<p>The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-26/great-ocean-road-fire-number-of-homes-lost-at-wye-river/7054840">devastating fires</a> that struck Wye River in Victoria on Christmas Day are, from an emergency response perspective, a success story. Despite the loss of 116 houses in the coastal town and nearby Separation Creek, nobody was killed. </p>
<p>The fire may have destroyed homes and in some cases livelihoods but the community presented a united front in terms of supporting one another and heading the evacuation warning, which was issued in plenty of time.</p>
<p>I spent the first part of January working with fire agencies to surveying the damage to houses in a bid to understand the impact of the fire. The community is truly thankful that no lives were lost in this terrible event. </p>
<p>The debate now shifts to how the community will <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria-government-launches-wye-river-rebuild-20160117-gm7o0e.html">rebuild</a> to withstand future and fires and other issues such as land instability.</p>
<p>Other communities have not been so lucky. The town Esperance in Western Australia was hit by fire in the 15th of December resulting in four lives and two homes lost. Two lives and 91 homes were lost in a fire north of Adelaide South Australia on the 25 of December and two lives and 121 homes were lost in the township of Yarloop in Western Australia on the 6 January. </p>
<p>As we look back over this summer’s fires and reflect on how communities and emergency services responded, we need to consider how the risk of fire is changing in a warming world. </p>
<h2>Fire safety is everyone’s responsibility</h2>
<p>Evacuation works well when there is sufficient warning and everyone decides to leave. It is reasonable for authorities to pick a threshold and say “it’s time to leave your home”. </p>
<p>But when this happens, the community has to act as one. Wye River did that very well; there wasn’t anyone left in the affected area except firefighters. This reflects a sense of shared responsibility for community safety between residents and fire authorities. </p>
<p>In Australia between 1900 and 2010, a total of 674 civilian lives were lost in <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/LWF/Areas/Landscape-management/Bushfire/Life-loss-database">260 bushfires</a>. <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901113002074">Analysis</a> of these deaths has focused on the relationship between where people were killed, weather conditions, proximity to fuel, activities and decision-making leading up to the death. We now know that most deaths occurred under very <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP129645">severe weather conditions</a>. </p>
<p>A number of recommendations came out of the <a href="http://www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/finaldocuments/summary/PF/VBRC_Summary_PF.pdf">Royal Commission</a> into the February 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria, including the need for an enhanced warning system. This resulted in a new, “code red” warning level on the bushfire weather severity scale. </p>
<p>For code red days, people in bushfire-prone areas are encouraged to listen to advice from agencies and leave their homes either the day before or early in the morning on the day the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire/">weather approaches this level</a>. This has been adopted in many regions across Australia as an accepted strategy. </p>
<p>Bushfires on code red days dominate loss statistics. 70% of house losses and 60% of deaths occurring on days which reach <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/LWF/Areas/Landscape-management/Bushfire/Life-loss-database">this level.</a> Thankfully none of our towns and cities have experienced a code red day this summer.</p>
<p>Mass evacuations will not necessarily always be the easiest or most practical solution for all bushfire circumstances. In Victoria, you can’t forcibly evacuate someone from a property where they have a personal interest in protecting that property. </p>
<p>In Wye River, the evacuation warning worked and people were more inclined to leave than stay and try to protect their homes. The warning work because it was issued well ahead of the fire. The community had previously considered their approach to the threat of bushfire and formed a unified approach to warnings. </p>
<p>In other areas the communities response to warnings may be more diverse. With the introduction of code red warnings, it is likely more people will evacuate following a warning. </p>
<p>What’s concerning is people who do decide to stay with their homes despite an evacuation call may be in more danger than ever before. They could be the only resident left in their street fighting to protect their home, potentially making them more vulnerable.</p>
<p>In the past resident needed to plan for a range of fire weather scenarios and decide at what level of fire weather severity <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-prepare-your-home-for-a-bushfire-and-when-to-leave-50962">they would leave</a>. This also includes planning for how to defend their home if for some reason they do not leave or a fire arrives on a less severe day. </p>
<p>Now residents need to also consider the extent to which the rest of their community is likely to leave the area.</p>
<h2>Fire in the future</h2>
<p>At the start of a bushfire season we don’t know if one or more code red days will occur. A code red day can only be reliably predicted in the week leading up to it.</p>
<p>Unfortunately we are likely to see more code red days in the future. </p>
<p>Typically on a code red day there are hundreds of fires in the landscape and firefighters battle to put most or all of them out. It’s an amazing task and they do an excellent job. But obviously there’s a chance that some could grow to a size that becomes impossible to control.</p>
<p>Have we seen the worst fire weather that is technically possible? Nobody knows for sure, but probably not.</p>
<p>Climate change projections indicate that south eastern Australia is likely to become hotter and drier in future.</p>
<p>A 2007 <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/fullreportbushfire.pdf">study</a> examined the potential impacts of climate change on fire-weather at various sites in south east Australia. It found that at all locations the likelihood of code red days occurring will increase. For some sites the change is minor by 2020 but for other sites such as Bourke, Melbourne Airport, and Mildura the frequency will more than double. </p>
<p>As we approach 2050 the news is far worse, with some areas such as Bourke, Melbourne Airport, Mildura, Moree and Wagga increasing in likelihood by more than five times. The study also found that fire seasons will start earlier and end later while being generally more intense throughout their length. This effect will be the most pronounced as we approach 2050 although it is likely to be apparent now.</p>
<p>By 2050 we can expect to see more uncontrollable fires in our landscape under the more severe weather conditions. A lot more of the landscape will be burnt. </p>
<p>In many regions major fires will be frequent enough to constantly remind people of the risks associate with them. With these observations we need to consider new ways of accepting the inevitability of these fires and adapt.</p>
<p>By adaptation I mean a combination of building practices and landscape design that match the fire-prone land we live in. Perhaps one day instead of lamenting the losses from bushfires, we will be able to feel content as the environment recovers around us. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Justin will be on hand for an Author Q&A between 3 and 4pm AEDT on Thursday, January 21, 2016. Post your questions in the comments section below.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53041/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Leonard receives funding as a CSIRO research scientist from various government agencies via grants and contracted research via agreements between CSIRO and those agencies. These grants and contracts are reference in the various journal articles and reports that are references in this article.</span></em></p>
The Christmas Day fires that struck the Victorian town of Wye River are an example of how to get emergency responses right.
Justin Leonard, Team Leader, Bushfire Urban Design, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/51124
2015-11-26T19:13:31Z
2015-11-26T19:13:31Z
More men die in bushfires: how gender affects how we plan and respond
<p>The recent bushfires in Western Australia and South Australia are a reminder of the deadly potential of bushfires in this country.</p>
<p>Four people lost their lives in the WA fires, and two people are confirmed to have died in the SA fires. </p>
<p>It is now well <a href="https://www.uowblogs.com/ausccer/tag/gender-and-wildfire-landscapes-of-uncertainty/">documented</a> that women and men are exposed to bushfire risk in different ways and degrees due to everyday divisions of labour and gendered norms. </p>
<p>A range of factors influence how people prepare for, respond to, and recover from bushfire. These include: the type of work they do; responsibilities for children, older and disabled people; and the distribution of decision-making power within the household. </p>
<p>Gender roles often mean that women take responsibility for the safety of vulnerable household members, while men protect the home and property. A number of <a href="https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-28-02">studies</a> have documented the tendency for women to want to leave and men to stay and defend.</p>
<h2>More men die in fires, but number of women increasing</h2>
<p>Fatality statistics highlight the role of gender in vulnerability to bushfire. <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901110000201">Analysis</a> of 552 bushfire-related deaths in Australia between 1900 and 2008 found that 67% were men, who mostly died outside while protecting assets. The proportion of men dying in bushfires declined since 1955 (to 57%), while the proportion of women increased from 16% between 1900 and 1954 to 38% after 1955. Women mostly died while sheltering or evacuating. </p>
<p>The gender distribution of fatalities on Black Saturday followed similar <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901113002074">trends</a>, 58% male and 42% female. </p>
<p>Our research published in the journal <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1745-5871.12162/abstract">Geographical Research</a> this month examined gendered responses to the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires. This involved analysis of over 600 interviews and a mail questionnaire of 1,314 households conducted with survivors across the fire-affected areas. This data was collected following Black Saturday by the <a href="http://www.bnhcrc.com.au">Bushfire & Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre</a>’s Research Taskforce. </p>
<h2>Different responses</h2>
<p>The influence of gender on planning and preparation was evident in interviews with survivors. Men often talked about “hard” preparations, such as reducing fuel and setting up sprinkler systems. Women often spoke about “soft” preparations, such as planning household responses and measures to ensure the safety of children and other household members. </p>
<p>Women more often reflected critically on their level of preparedness, with more than three-quarters saying they would have liked to be more prepared (compared to 68% of men). </p>
<p>In terms of intended responses, men more often wanted to stay and defend against bushfire (56% v. 42%) and women more often wanted to leave as soon as they knew a fire was threatening (23% v. 11%). Of those who intended to “wait and see” (an approach discouraged by fire agencies), men were more likely to intend to wait until the fire arrived before deciding whether to stay or leave (11% v. 7%) and women were more likely to intend to stay and defend but leave if they felt threatened (20% v. 15%). Very few men or women had intended to leave on all days of high fire danger, regardless of whether a fire had started (both 2%). </p>
<p>Analysis of the interviews revealed that responsibility for children, the elderly and other vulnerable household members influenced many people’s intentions to leave. In many cases, women left and men stayed behind to defend the house and property. </p>
<p>In some cases, household members disagreed over their intended responses, with a number of women reporting that their intention for everyone in the household to leave conflicted with their male partner’s intention. These disagreements tended to happen in households where people had not adequately planned or discussed their response with other household members, and in situations where plans changed at the last moment.</p>
<p>In terms of actual responses, men more often stayed to defend (62% v. 42%), while women more often left before or when the fire arrived (54% v. 35%). Small proportions of women (5%) and men (3%) reported that they sheltered inside a house or some other structure, in a vehicle, or somewhere outside. </p>
<p>Women were more receptive to advice from relatives, friends, neighbours and emergency services, particularly when advice related to leaving. Men more often reported feeling confident that that they could protect themselves and others (85% v. 71%) and their house and property (75% v. 59%). Men were more likely to say they would stay and defend against future bushfires than women (83% v. 68%). </p>
<h2>Improving safety</h2>
<p>These findings largely support past research on bushfire and gender, which has highlighted that women more often intend to leave and men more often want to stay.</p>
<p>However, we challenge characterisations of staying to defend as a masculine response and leaving as a feminine response. While some women expressed a strong desire to leave, others were committed to staying to defend - and 42% did so. Similarly, there were many men who never considered staying to defend an option.</p>
<p>A number of these findings suggest opportunities for enhancing community bushfire safety. The tendency for women to reflect more critically on their level of planning and preparedness suggests there are opportunities to develop bushfire awareness and education programs designed specifically to engage and meet the needs of women.</p>
<p>Similarly, the finding that women were more receptive to bushfire-related advice suggests opportunities for tailoring and communicating information, advice and warnings to women. It is also important that residents in bushfire risk areas plan and discuss the intended responses of all householders to avoid last minute disagreements and decisions. </p>
<p>It is important to stress that because of ingrained gender norms in Australian culture, many of the issues raised in our analysis are unlikely to be resolved by outreach programs and information provision by emergency services alone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51124/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Whittaker receives funding from the Bushfire & Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christine Eriksen is the recipient of a Discovery Early Career Research Award from the Australian Research Council (DE150100242).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katharine Haynes receives funding from the Bushfire & Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. </span></em></p>
It is now well documented that women and men are exposed to bushfire risk in different ways and degrees due to everyday divisions of labour and gendered norms.
Joshua Whittaker, Research Fellow (Emergency and disaster management), RMIT University
Christine Eriksen, Senior Research Fellow, University of Wollongong
Katharine Haynes, Snr Research Fellow, Risk Frontiers Natural Hazards Research Centre, Macquarie University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/39254
2015-03-29T18:50:41Z
2015-03-29T18:50:41Z
Percentage targets for planned burning are blunt tools that don’t work
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76214/original/image-20150327-16090-63pbyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Large bushfires occur in the mallee shrublands and woodlands of Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lauren Brown</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fire profoundly influences human health, the economy and wildlife. In Victoria, for instance, bushfires have burned more than <a href="http://www.bushfiresmonitor.vic.gov.au/home/reports/">one million hectares since 2009, claiming 178 lives and more than 2,300 homes</a>, and causing <a href="http://www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports/Final-Report.html">more than A$4 billion</a> in social, economic and environmental costs. </p>
<p>Reducing fire risk is a global issue, as highlighted by recent devastating fires in the <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-round-fire-california-wildfire-20150209-story.html">United States</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31697433">South Africa</a>, as well as in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-04/adelaide-hills-bushfires-through-eyes-reporter-tom-fedorowytch/5999130">other Australian states</a>. </p>
<p>To reduce fire risk, the <a href="http://www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/">2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission</a> recommended that the Victorian Government aim to burn at least 5% of public land as an annual rolling target. The Inspector-General for Emergency Management is currently reviewing this simple percentage target against a new risk-based approach to bushfire management.</p>
<p>Is a state-wide percentage target the best way to reduce risk to human life and property and maintain our globally significant biodiversity? We think not.</p>
<h2>Limitations of percentage targets</h2>
<p>Across the world, planned burning is the main tool for reducing bushfire risk. It is effective when used in key locations by reducing fuel loads, which in turn reduces fire spread rate and intensity. Appropriate planned burning can also manipulate native vegetation to benefit certain plant and animal species. </p>
<p>But burning 5% of public land each year (390,000 hectares in Victoria’s case) has three main limitations.</p>
<p><strong>1. It causes biodiversity to decline</strong></p>
<p>Many native plants and animals rely on fire to regenerate habitat and maintain populations, but too much fire can be bad. </p>
<p>Our <a href="http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/14-0257.1">new research</a>, published in the journal Ecological Applications, shows that burning 5% of public land each year will harm biodiversity in the mallee shrublands and woodlands of northwestern Victoria. Based on extensive surveys of <a href="http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/11-0850.1">birds</a>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00754.x/abstract">mammals</a> and <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00747.x/abstract">reptiles</a>, we found that burning 5% of a given area increases the risk of extinction of a range of native species. </p>
<p>This is because, while some species prefer more recently burnt vegetation, most fire-sensitive species occur in older vegetation, which is largely eliminated when burning 5% each year.</p>
<p>To date, this is the only peer-reviewed paper that predicts how Victoria’s current burning strategy influences wildlife diversity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76216/original/image-20150327-16090-8risuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76216/original/image-20150327-16090-8risuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76216/original/image-20150327-16090-8risuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76216/original/image-20150327-16090-8risuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76216/original/image-20150327-16090-8risuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76216/original/image-20150327-16090-8risuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76216/original/image-20150327-16090-8risuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Yellow-plumed Honeyeater is one of many birds in mallee shrublands and woodlands that prefer older vegetation with large trees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rohan Clarke/Wildlife Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>2. It overlooks important differences between ecosystems.</strong></p>
<p>Ecosystems across Victoria are not uniform. They contain different plants and animals, they have different fire regimes, they have different fuel loads, and they present different fire risks to humans. A simple, state-wide target covering such a large and diverse area inevitably misses these important details. </p>
<p>Put simply, what might be an appropriate fire regime for one ecosystem (such as a forest or woodland) is very different to an appropriate fire regime for another (such as a grassland or heathland).</p>
<p><strong>3. It is inefficient.</strong></p>
<p>The current percentage-based strategy does not focus enough on the most at-risk Victorian communities. Large-scale planned burning in remote areas, such as the <a href="http://www.latrobe.edu.au/ecology-environment-and-evolution/research/specialisations/fire-ecology/projects/mallee-fire-and-biodiversity">Murray Mallee region</a>, makes it easier to achieve the state-wide planned burning target. But it is an inefficient use of resources, and does little to reduce the risk of major bushfires to human life and property. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/which-homes-will-survive-this-bushfire-season-20072">Research</a> completed after the 2009 Black Saturday fires showed that the most effective way to protect houses is through burning (or clearing) vegetation in close proximity to properties. Burning in more remote regions has little impact on reducing risk. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfire-hazard-reduction-the-sword-or-the-shield-19393">A separate study</a> showed that planned burns next to properties can be five times more effective than planned burning far from houses. Fire management will most effectively reduce the risk to human life when it is implemented next to the most high-risk properties. </p>
<p>A state-wide target, in contrast, encourages burning in remote locations where the benefits are negligible and fire-management resources are wasted.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76227/original/image-20150327-16090-wq2961.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76227/original/image-20150327-16090-wq2961.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76227/original/image-20150327-16090-wq2961.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76227/original/image-20150327-16090-wq2961.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76227/original/image-20150327-16090-wq2961.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76227/original/image-20150327-16090-wq2961.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76227/original/image-20150327-16090-wq2961.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forests on the urban-rural fringe contain different plants and animals, and present different fire risks to people, than more remote woodlands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Freya Thomas</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A more effective plan</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/">Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission</a> also recommended that the Victorian government develop risk-based performance measures for bushfire management. In response, the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning has developed <a href="http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/fire-and-emergencies/managing-risk-and-learning-about-managing-fire/managing-bushfire-risk">sophisticated methods for mapping risks</a> from major bushfires across the state, and predicting bushfire risk following planned burning.</p>
<p>We strongly support this more sophisticated, regional risk-management approach. After all, planned burning to protect human life and property should naturally focus on places where people are most at risk from major bushfires. </p>
<p>Another <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12384/abstract">new piece of our research</a>, published in the journal Conservation Biology, offers a way to predict how planned burning also influences risks to biodiversity. This will allow land managers to consider trade-offs between protecting people and conserving wildlife when applying planned burning.</p>
<p>Just as the 5% target is an inefficient method for minimising the impact of major bushfires on human life and communities, it also has negative consequences for the resilience of natural ecosystems.</p>
<p>It’s time to drop the simple 5% target. It is a blunt tool, and a risk-based approach more effectively focuses fire protection where it’s most needed: safeguarding people and wildlife.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39254/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Kelly receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, and the Bushfires and Natural Hazards CRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Giljohann receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael McCarthy receives funding from the Victorian government, the Australian Research Council, other federal government agencies.</span></em></p>
Controlling bushfire risk by burning a set percentage of land every year sounds sensible - but a more sophisticated approach is needed to truly safeguard both humans and wildlife in rural areas.
Luke Kelly, Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne
Katherine Giljohann, PhD candidate, The University of Melbourne
Michael McCarthy, Professor, The University of Melbourne
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/37518
2015-03-03T03:14:29Z
2015-03-03T03:14:29Z
Understanding grief can help us adapt to climate change
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72853/original/image-20150224-32215-l0udhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How will we cope with the losses posed by climate change? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/suburbanbloke/381685763">Tim J Keegan/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Grief is a natural response to the loss of something cherished – a loved one, a place, a memory, an icon, a way of life. </p>
<p>As people adapt to the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, and to a changing environment, researchers are starting to realise the role grief can play in how well people are able to cope with climate change. </p>
<p>Even with concerted efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, some climate change cannot be avoided, with many changes such as increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events to 2040 being <a href="http://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter11.pdf">locked in</a>, regardless of action we take. These changes are already happening now and will continue into the foreseeable future. </p>
<p>The resulting impacts will require all communities and individuals to adapt in some way. If they don’t adapt in a planned way and react to events as they happen, it is likely to increase the likelihood of loss, poor responses and vulnerability to future events. </p>
<p>These impacts are not only changing the world around us but also the way we live. As with all change, there is an element of loss and the potential for grief.</p>
<h2>Does climate change cause grief?</h2>
<p>A variety of losses can be experienced. People may grieve due to the perceived future loss of something; for example, the type of grief often expressed via social media over the potential loss of the Great Barrier Reef. Individuals and communities may grieve for the loss of a loved landscape damaged by drought, fire or flood. </p>
<p>Grief can also be associated with changing environments and circumstances. For example, business sectors such as farming and tourism which are sensitive to environmental impacts may need to change traditional structures and ways of operating to ensure their future viability. At an individual level it can be the loss of a sense of safety or security.</p>
<p>In a normal and healthy grieving process, individuals move through the process of grief and continue with their lives. How well a person copes during this process depends on their experience, context and external circumstances.</p>
<p>For instance, at the New South Wales Coastal Conference in 2012, one local government participant told us they had found that the community accepted and believed that climate change was happening but added that “when we went to talk to them about possible relocation in the future, they got really angry”.</p>
<h2>The five stages</h2>
<p>A few years ago I found that some people working on climate adaption did not understand these sorts of reactions from communities and businesses. This was often because they had not thought about how people might respond emotionally to the information they were sharing. </p>
<p>Clive Hamilton discusses <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/10/16/hamilton-3-stages-of-climate-change-grief-denial-hope-angry-acceptance/">some of these responses</a> in a 2009 <a href="http://clivehamilton.com/psychological-adaptation-to-the-threats-and-stresses-of-a-four-degree-world/">paper</a>, and in his 2010 book <a href="http://clivehamilton.com/books/requiem-for-a-species/">Requiem for a Species</a> where he proposed that denial, maladaptive (bad) coping, and adaptive (good) coping were the three key psychological responses to climate change. This gives a context for understanding responses at a conceptual level. </p>
<p>In response, I <a href="http://www.vu.edu.au/sites/default/files/cses/pdfs/19-Young-2014-Problem-Solution-Framework.pdf">adapted</a> one of the best known models used for grief and loss, developed by <a href="http://www.ekrfoundation.org/">Elisabeth Kubler Ross</a>, to give a practical context to these responses and enable better management of them. This model defines five key phases of responses to loss: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance, and has been incorporated into standard change-management processes.</p>
<p>There are limitations to using this model as the process of climate change is not a neat bell curve which moves through phases in sequence, rather a dynamic process which can be subject to unexpected shocks.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71797/original/image-20150212-16634-ovww6t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71797/original/image-20150212-16634-ovww6t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71797/original/image-20150212-16634-ovww6t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71797/original/image-20150212-16634-ovww6t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71797/original/image-20150212-16634-ovww6t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71797/original/image-20150212-16634-ovww6t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71797/original/image-20150212-16634-ovww6t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71797/original/image-20150212-16634-ovww6t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.vu.edu.au/sites/default/files/cses/pdfs/19-Young-2014-Problem-Solution-Framework.pdf">Celeste Young</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other researchers have developed other models. <a href="http://www.climateaccess.org/resource/loss-and-climate-change-cost-parallel-narratives">Rosemary Randall</a> (2009) adapted William Worden’s <a href="http://www.springerpub.com/grief-counseling-and-grief-therapy-fourth-edition.html">therapeutic model</a> because she found it “offered more practical assistance”.
This model uses four key tasks: accepting the reality of the loss, working through painful emotions of grief, adjusting to the new environment and reinvesting emotional energy. These tasks can be revisited as part of an ongoing process.</p>
<p>Climate change does throw up some unique challenges because it is continuous change. This may result in people becoming overwhelmed as losses accumulate over time, or becoming “stuck” and unable to move through the grief process. Denial and avoidance can impede the ability to adapt, and make individuals and communities more at risk of climate impacts as a result of inaction. </p>
<p>It can also result in a sense of hopelessness about the future. Without the right type of support, these responses can result in serious conditions such as depression or anxiety which require professional intervention. </p>
<h2>Helping people grieve</h2>
<p>So how can we help people and communities work through the climate grieving process? </p>
<p>Proactive responses directly after an event can be very useful in specific contexts. In January 2011, floods devastated Grantham in the Lockyer Valley region in Queensland, resulting in <a href="http://www.floodcommission.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/9599/QFCI_Exhibit_602__Lockyer_Valley_Regional_council__Grantham_relocation_policy_dated_11_May_2011.pdf">“significant loss of life and property”</a>. The community and local government acknowledged these losses and as part of the process of rebuilding. They decided to relocate their community at risk of further flooding to higher ground through a consultative process. This has not only helped the community heal from the losses they encountered but has also saved the community <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/grantham-home-relocation-saved-tens-of-millions-20130204-2dut3.html">“tens of millions of dollars”</a> in damages from subsequent flood events.</p>
<p>Another way to help people accept these changes is through cultural activities that support the expression of grief. In Australia, local government, community, and the arts sector have led in this area. Storytelling is often used as it provides a structured and often empowering way of expressing difficult emotions. </p>
<p>For instance, following the devastating Black Saturday bushfires of 2009, the community of Strathewen, supported by local government and the RedCross, created a <a href="http://www.bigstories.com.au/story/recovery">memorial</a> to honour those who had died and the memory of the event, as part of their recovery. </p>
<p>The community felt the best way to do this was to make a place where people could come to remember and reflect. The final design was a series of concentric stone circles, which visitors could walk through and experience the different stages of the fire – from fear and despair to hope and regeneration – through the stories of the survivors engraved on them. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72994/original/image-20150225-25659-1rakt5n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72994/original/image-20150225-25659-1rakt5n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72994/original/image-20150225-25659-1rakt5n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72994/original/image-20150225-25659-1rakt5n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72994/original/image-20150225-25659-1rakt5n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72994/original/image-20150225-25659-1rakt5n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72994/original/image-20150225-25659-1rakt5n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72994/original/image-20150225-25659-1rakt5n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Strathewen Black Saturday memorial - designed by the community.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">©Arterial Design</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These types of activities can also improve connectivity and resilience as noted by Murdoch University arts expert Peter Wright. In his <a href="http://peterwright.net.au/pdf/GOLD%20Evaluation.pdf">evaluation</a> of the <a href="http://www.au.org.au/public/">GOLD</a> project run by BigHart, with communities in the Murray Darling region during the drought, he
concluded the program: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>reveals, and is consistent with international and national experience is that culture is a tool for dialogue and social inclusion, and therefore key in social cohesion and stability each being key to human development and increasing each individual’s human capabilities…in the words of one farmer - BigHart (coming) was like someone saving a life.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Grief is a natural process and by not including it as part of the cycles of change, we reduce our resilience and make the task of adaptation harder. We should not allow our grief to direct what we create for the future from a sense of loss. We should use our understanding of grief to inform and enrich it. </p>
<p>In understanding what we have lost or are losing, it is possible to see our own fragility, and gain a deeper understanding of our connection to, and the possibilities of, the changed landscape we now inhabit. It is a conversation we need to have.</p>
<p><em>The author would like to thank Professor <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roger-jones-2514">Roger Jones</a> for his support in writing this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Celeste Young receives funding from Bushfires and Natural Hazards CRC .</span></em></p>
A growing number of researchers are looking to grief to understand how people will respond to climate change.
Celeste Young, Collaborative Research Fellow, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/33600
2014-10-30T00:31:19Z
2014-10-30T00:31:19Z
Five years on from Black Saturday, most survivors are doing OK
<p>Five years on from the devastating Black Saturday fires that swept through central Victoria in February 2009, research shows that people and communities are largely recovering well.</p>
<p>In the first major data release of the ongoing <a href="http://www.beyondbushfires.org.au">Beyond Bushfires study</a>, of which I am a lead researcher, we found a majority of people affected by the fires are not experiencing ongoing psychological distress. The results will be presented at the Beyond Bushfires sympoisum at the University of Melbourne today. </p>
<p>However a significant minority of people are still suffering psychological impacts from the fires, with a third of those with marked distress not seeking recent professional help. </p>
<p>The study also finds that social networks matter. Having more close emotional ties is generally related to better mental health and wellbeing outcomes.</p>
<p>The fires — the deadliest in Australia’s history — killed 173 people and destroyed more than 2,000 homes. </p>
<h2>Beyond bushfires</h2>
<p>We began the Beyond Bushfires study in <a href="http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2458/13/1036">2010</a>. In the first part we involved over one thousand people affected by the fires in a survey conducted in 2012. Two years later nearly 80% returned to complete the second survey. We also conducted in-depth interviews with 35 community members for greater insight into personal stories.</p>
<p>We deliberately identified communities that represented a range of fires experiences - areas that were really highly affected, to areas that weren’t affected by fires but were at risk. We also looked for diversity in terms of socio-economics, size of community and distance from Melbourne. </p>
<p>We then went to those places and spoke to local organisations to invite them to support the study and act as community-based partners. </p>
<h2>Bushfire survivors doing ok</h2>
<p>One of the things we have learnt is that within families people can experience what might be a similar event quite differently. We often think of families as a cohesive unit, but in fact their needs can be quite varied. That can impact on decision-making about where they live, their social and service needs, and what items they want to keep from the past or from the fires. </p>
<p>The majority of people 3-4 years after the fires were ok, and weren’t experiencing psychological distress. But there were a significant minority — up to 15% — who weren’t ok, which is more than what you’d see in the <a href="http://anp.sagepub.com/content/48/7/634">average community</a>. </p>
<p>These people were most typically located in the most highly-affected areas, the places that experienced the greatest degree of loss and damage. </p>
<p>Psychological effects included post-traumatic street disorder, depression, anxiety, distress, and heavy-drinking. All of those are signs that someone is not ok and likely to need professional support. </p>
<p>Of those who reported marked distress, there were a third who hadn’t received professional support in the month prior to the survey. That’s an issue for concern. </p>
<p>Among those who sought support there wasn’t a gender difference. We often talk about gender differences in those seeking support, but in this group — quite high levels of distress — we didn’t see gender-based differences in help-seeking. </p>
<p>Women were more likely to report post-traumatic stress disorder, and men were more likely to report heavy-drinking — a form of self-medication. </p>
<p>The risk factors for poorer mental health outcomes include if the person thought they were going to die, anger, and if they experienced major stresses after the fire. That’s quite common, over 50% of the sample reported experiencing one or more major life stressful events since the bushfires, such as financial difficulties or change in relationship.</p>
<h2>Tighter communities fared better</h2>
<p>Social networks really make a difference in whether people experienced psychological distress. </p>
<p>People who had friends and family living in their community generally had better psychological outcomes than those who didn’t. Being involved in a local organisation was also a protective factor. And if people were involved in more than one organisation, the benefits increased. </p>
<p>The message of this study is to encourage anything that promotes connections within the local community as a way to increase disaster resilience. This could be joining a community group, getting to know your neighbours or connecting with other local families through your children.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33600/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Gibbs receives funding from Australian Research Council and the Jack Brockhoff Foundation.</span></em></p>
Five years on from the devastating Black Saturday fires that swept through central Victoria in February 2009, research shows that people and communities are largely recovering well. In the first major…
Lisa Gibbs, Academic, Population Health, The University of Melbourne
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/30611
2014-08-24T20:42:58Z
2014-08-24T20:42:58Z
Victoria’s logged landscapes are at increased risk of bushfire
<p>Victoria’s forest management policies need to be urgently reviewed in response to the discovery that logging can contribute to the severity of bushfires in wet forests, like the devastating fires on <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/black-saturday">Black Saturday</a> in February 2009.</p>
<p>Our <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12122/abstract">recent study</a>, based on data from areas that burned on Black Saturday, clearly shows how extensive logging can increase the severity of bushfires in mountain ash forests. We found that the risk of “crown” fires, which burn severely and spread rapidly through the forest canopy, is greatest in mountain ash forests that have been regrowing for about 15 years. Before the 2009 fires, these young trees were established following clearfell logging.</p>
<p>The Victorian government will review its forest management policies in the coming months and we encourage it to consider our findings.</p>
<h2>Forests and fires</h2>
<p>Mountain ash trees, which can grow higher than 100 metres, are restricted to high-rainfall zones of Victoria: the Central Highlands north and east of Melbourne, the Strzelecki Ranges of South Gippsland, and the Otway Ranges in the state’s southwest. </p>
<p>Some of these forests are up to 500 years old. They can be very complex in their structure, with trees of varying ages that regenerate from seeds after infrequent and sometimes intense fires. The forests have also been a major logging resource since the 1930s.</p>
<p>We studied about 10,000 sites in the Central Highlands mountain ash forest that burned on February 7 2009, spread over two regions 56 kilometres apart. These regions had similar stand ages, topography and burned at the same time of day. This allowed us to look at the variables that influence fire severity. </p>
<p>As expected, most of the severe fire occurred when the fire weather was extreme, both before and after the late afternoon wind change. However, patterns of fire severity during this time were variable. We tested for several environmental factors that could influence these patterns, including slope and aspect, but found that the tree age had by far the greatest influence on fire severity. </p>
<p>The most severe fires, which consume the crowns of the trees, were most prominent in mountain ash trees aged between seven and 36 years of age, with a peak around 15 years. Virtually all trees under seven years of age did not sustain crown fires and crown fires were infrequent (around 10% of forest area) in trees up to 300 years old.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/56776/original/6cqwxqd3-1408423197.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/56776/original/6cqwxqd3-1408423197.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/56776/original/6cqwxqd3-1408423197.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56776/original/6cqwxqd3-1408423197.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56776/original/6cqwxqd3-1408423197.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56776/original/6cqwxqd3-1408423197.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56776/original/6cqwxqd3-1408423197.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56776/original/6cqwxqd3-1408423197.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Probability of crown fire versus stand age.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Taylor et al. 2014</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Changing risks</h2>
<p>Crown fires result in the most severe impact on vegetation and they have greater rates of spread when compared to other fires, such those burning in the understorey. Crown fires often feature large flames extending above the forest canopy and pose the greatest threat to life and property. They are driven by extreme fire weather conditions, combined with high fire intensities and high densities of the crown fuel. </p>
<p>In mountain ash forests, the fine fuel loads approach their maximum levels at around 15-30 years of age. At this stage, trees undergo rapid <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/BT9760397.htm">self-thinning</a>. In the early stages of growth, a mountain ash forest has anywhere between <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10021-013-9721-9">200,000 and 1,000,000 seedlings</a> per hectare. Competition for light and nutrients is fierce and dominant trees quickly suppress surrounding trees in the early stages of growth. </p>
<p>The suppressed trees die and turn into large amounts of fine, dry material that can act as “flash fuel” in a fire. Where previous logging has taken place, woody debris left by the logging adds to the available fuel. <a href="http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/ES14-00051.1">One study</a> found that mountain ash logging leaves behind up to 30% of the forest biomass and this material can remain in logged areas for 50 years.</p>
<p>In older stands, fuel loads remain high, but the risk of crown fire drops because the crown is higher above the ground and the density of the fuel is dispersed. The trees themselves become dispersed and a more moist understorey, including rainforest plants, becomes prominent. These conditions make it more difficult for fire to burn severely. </p>
<h2>Logging legacy</h2>
<p>Logging is known to increase fire risks in moist forests <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2009.00080.x/abstract">around the world</a> and our findings show why it’s critical to consider the long-term changes to mountain ash forests resulting from logging. Our findings are largely supported by <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479712004574">previous research</a>, which shows that the risk of crown fire decreases with age. <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12062/abstract">Another study</a> also shows a similar trend in its data to our findings, but it downplayed the significance of any relationship.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/56777/original/tsrkyshs-1408423351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/56777/original/tsrkyshs-1408423351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/56777/original/tsrkyshs-1408423351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56777/original/tsrkyshs-1408423351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56777/original/tsrkyshs-1408423351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56777/original/tsrkyshs-1408423351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56777/original/tsrkyshs-1408423351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56777/original/tsrkyshs-1408423351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Crown fire (red arrows) is less common in young and old stands, and most common in those aged between 10 and 30 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adapted from Attiwill et al. 2013 (red arrows added)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Managing the risk</h2>
<p>Mountain ash forest dominated by young trees is becoming more widespread. Up to 2009, around 30% had been clearfell logged across the region. Around 35% of mountain ash forest was burnt by the fires. Combined, the fires and the previous logging resulted in young trees occupying around 60% of the mountain ash forest area.</p>
<p>Clearfell logging continues in remaining unburnt areas of mountain ash forest, especially in places like the Royston and Rubicon valleys, northeast of Marysville, which have become a largely continuous chequerboard of young trees. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/56778/original/4rrrjhmp-1408423537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/56778/original/4rrrjhmp-1408423537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/56778/original/4rrrjhmp-1408423537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56778/original/4rrrjhmp-1408423537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56778/original/4rrrjhmp-1408423537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56778/original/4rrrjhmp-1408423537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56778/original/4rrrjhmp-1408423537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/56778/original/4rrrjhmp-1408423537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satellite image of the Royston and Rubicon valleys.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are arguments that the amount of logging across Victoria is small and that its influence on overall fire severity is negligible when compared to the overall area impacted by a fire. However, this argument does not hold when looking at mountain ash in isolation. It covers only 15% of the region’s forested area, yet some 60% of the region’s logging operations take place within this forest type. </p>
<p>Remaining unlogged areas are often small and fragmented, mostly forming linear strips alongside streams. The impacts are concentrated and regionalised - now most areas that have mountain ash forest feature extensive logging.</p>
<p>We can’t change the area of young trees resulting from the the Black Saturday fires, but we can determine the other areas of young trees that we establish following logging. Remaining unburnt mountain ash forests are now more important than ever. They not only serve as refuges for wildlife in an extensively burned landscape, but provide areas that carry a much lower risk of crown fire. </p>
<p>Changes are urgently needed to logging policies in these forests. Any future logging must be negligible in its cumulative impact. Given the large area already logged and the huge impact of Black Saturday, an expanded formal reserve system would serve an important role in protecting remaining unburnt areas of mountain ash forest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/30611/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Taylor received no external funding for the work discussed in this article. He has previously worked as an external research consultant on the Black Saturday fires for a group of environmental NGOs in 2009. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network, and the Government of Victoria. He is a member of the Canberra Ornithologists Group and Birdlife Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael McCarthy receives funding from the Australian Research Council, and the National Environmental Research Program.</span></em></p>
Victoria’s forest management policies need to be urgently reviewed in response to the discovery that logging can contribute to the severity of bushfires in wet forests, like the devastating fires on Black…
Chris Taylor, Research Fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of Melbourne
David Lindenmayer, Professor, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University
Michael McCarthy, Professor, The University of Melbourne
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/30240
2014-08-07T23:06:04Z
2014-08-07T23:06:04Z
Burnoff policies could be damaging habitats for 100 years
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/56005/original/sbjhw2dq-1407455600.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Burnoffs in the mallee region of Victoria may have done lasting damage to the environment.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>The smell of smoke in the autumn and spring air is an increasingly familiar one to many Australians. It signifies that time of year when land management agencies in southern Australia feverishly try to meet their burning targets. </p>
<p>But what are the consequences for biodiversity of setting such targets in Australia’s ecosystems? In recent research conducted in south-eastern Australia’s Murray Mallee region, our team (the <a href="http://www.latrobe.edu.au/zoology/research/specialisations/fire-ecology/projects/mallee-fire-and-biodiversity">Mallee Fire and Biodiversity Team</a>) found that such policies can set in motion changes that persist for over <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01906.x/abstract">100 years</a>. </p>
<p><a href="http://australianmuseum.net.au/2014-Finalists-Eureka">Today</a> it has been announced this research is one of three projects nominated for the <a href="http://australianmuseum.net.au/eureka/">Eureka Science Prize</a> for Environmental Science, sponsored by the <a href="http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/">NSW Office of Environment and Heritage</a>. The winners will be announced on September 10.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55919/original/rqv8b69n-1407382497.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55919/original/rqv8b69n-1407382497.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55919/original/rqv8b69n-1407382497.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55919/original/rqv8b69n-1407382497.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55919/original/rqv8b69n-1407382497.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55919/original/rqv8b69n-1407382497.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55919/original/rqv8b69n-1407382497.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55919/original/rqv8b69n-1407382497.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Western pygmy possums use tree hollows that take decades to develop in mallee ecosystems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lauren Brown </span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fire over the long term</h2>
<p>We found that fire dramatically changes the abundance of resources critical to animals in semi-arid ecosystems, such as <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01906.x/abstract">spinifex hummocks</a> and <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320712001899">tree hollows</a>. This doesn’t just occur in the immediate aftermath of a fire; the impacts continue for a century after burning. </p>
<p>To put this in perspective, a fire in 1914 at the beginning of World War I would still be affecting where particular animal species occur today. Similarly, a fire lit today will influence the mallee ecosystem through to the year 2114 and beyond.</p>
<h2>But Australian ecosystems love fire, right?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55918/original/trdym9qn-1407382488.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55918/original/trdym9qn-1407382488.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55918/original/trdym9qn-1407382488.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55918/original/trdym9qn-1407382488.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55918/original/trdym9qn-1407382488.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55918/original/trdym9qn-1407382488.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1134&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55918/original/trdym9qn-1407382488.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1134&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55918/original/trdym9qn-1407382488.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1134&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The mallee ningaui is most common in shrublands that haven’t been burned for at least 20 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mallee Fire and Biodiversity Project</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These long-term effects of fire were surprising, but equally fascinating was the post-fire preferences of the native fauna. </p>
<p>It often is assumed that plants and animal species in Australian environments generally benefit from fire. This view arises from the logic that if fires occur frequently within a region, then the species must have adapted to cope with frequent fire. </p>
<p>However, although large wildfires do occur frequently somewhere within the Murray Mallee region (<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204613000868">typically every 10 to 20 years</a>), substantial areas can avoid wildfire for long periods (<a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/BT10051">50, 80 or even more than 100 years</a>). </p>
<p>We found that these older stands of mallee vegetation are critical to <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00842.x/abstract">many animal species</a>. A number of species of <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00747.x/abstract">reptiles</a>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00754.x/abstract">small mammals</a> and particularly <a href="http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/11-0850.1">birds</a> had clear preferences for sites of 30-100 years post-fire.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55921/original/3zbnvdr5-1407382502.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55921/original/3zbnvdr5-1407382502.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55921/original/3zbnvdr5-1407382502.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55921/original/3zbnvdr5-1407382502.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55921/original/3zbnvdr5-1407382502.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55921/original/3zbnvdr5-1407382502.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55921/original/3zbnvdr5-1407382502.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55921/original/3zbnvdr5-1407382502.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The southern legless lizard depends on flammable spinifex grass.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lauren Brown</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For instance, the Murray striped skink (<em>Ctenotus brachyonyx</em>) and the yellow-plumed honeyeater (<em>Lichenostomus ornatus</em>) are both most common in sites that have not burned for 60-100 years. </p>
<p>Species dependent on spinifex grass, such as the mallee emu-wren (<em>Stipiturus mallee</em>), mallee ningaui (<em>Ningaui yvonneae</em>) and southern legless lizard (<em>Delma australis</em>), reach their greatest abundance at 20-50 years post-fire when large amounts of <a href="http://ianluntecology.com/2014/05/25/animated-fire-ecology/">spinifex cover occur</a>.</p>
<h2>A mismatch between ecology, policy, and management</h2>
<p>If long-unburnt mallee vegetation is so valuable for wildlife, then it is important that this is recognised in fire management and policy. </p>
<p>But in Victoria, there is a blanket state-wide target of undertaking planned burning of 5% of public land annually. </p>
<p>Assuming no areas are burned twice within 20 years (a fairly safe assumption for the mallee), meeting this target would essentially result in all mallee vegetation in the region being less than 20 years post-fire within 20 years. If this is realised, the consequences for many species will be disastrous.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55922/original/y2jvfgy8-1407382541.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55922/original/y2jvfgy8-1407382541.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55922/original/y2jvfgy8-1407382541.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55922/original/y2jvfgy8-1407382541.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55922/original/y2jvfgy8-1407382541.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55922/original/y2jvfgy8-1407382541.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55922/original/y2jvfgy8-1407382541.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55922/original/y2jvfgy8-1407382541.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yellow-plumed honeyeaters need patches of mallee that haven’t been burned for at least 30 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Simon Watson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why the mismatch?</h2>
<p>The target for burning 5% of public land annually was recommended by the <a href="http://www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/">Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission</a> into the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Saturday_bushfires">Black Saturday</a> fires of 2009. These devastating fires swept through Victoria with tragic results: 173 people lost their lives and scores more their livelihoods. </p>
<p>The 5% target was proposed as a means to minimise the risk of another tragedy like Black Saturday. Planned fires can reduce fuel loads and therefore the logic is that this will reduce the risk of large wildfires. </p>
<p>While few would debate the need to minimise risk to human life and property from wildfire, there is a legitimate debate around how burning large tracts of land in remote regions such as the Murray Mallee will achieve this aim. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55920/original/bkx8vjhf-1407382504.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55920/original/bkx8vjhf-1407382504.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55920/original/bkx8vjhf-1407382504.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55920/original/bkx8vjhf-1407382504.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55920/original/bkx8vjhf-1407382504.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55920/original/bkx8vjhf-1407382504.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55920/original/bkx8vjhf-1407382504.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55920/original/bkx8vjhf-1407382504.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fires consumes spinifex clumps and tree hollows - both important animal habitats.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lauren Brown</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Scientists from the Department of Environment and Primary Industries have estimated <a href="http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0012/235101/Victorian-Bushfire-Risk-Profiles_WEB2.pdf">that less than 3%</a> of the statewide risk to life and property is located in the Murray Mallee region. Yet <a href="http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/fire-and-emergencies/planned-burns/planned-burns-this-season/?a=236779">16.9%</a> of the planned burning by area in 2012-2013 occurred there. Conversely, although the more populated areas closer to Melbourne accounted for 31% of risk, only around 1.6% of planned burning took place in that region. </p>
<p>If, and when, the next tragic loss of life occurs as a consequence of bushfires, the question will be <em>where</em> we burned to minimise risk, not just <em>how much</em>. </p>
<p>If we don’t change our policies, we risk doing ecological harm, while at the same time making humans little safer.</p>
<p>We would welcome an alternative approach that identifies areas to burn on the basis of where the greatest reduction in risk to life and property can be achieved, while also minimising the risk to biodiversity. </p>
<p><em>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-back-burning-and-fuel-reduction-20605">Explainer: backburning and fuel reduction</a></em> </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/30240/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dale Nimmo receives funding from Parks Victoria and the Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Bennett receives funding from the Department of Environment and Primary Industries (Victoria), Parks Victoria, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, and Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Clarke receives funding from the Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries and the Bushfires and Natural Hazards CRC.</span></em></p>
The smell of smoke in the autumn and spring air is an increasingly familiar one to many Australians. It signifies that time of year when land management agencies in southern Australia feverishly try to…
Dale Nimmo, Alfred Deakin Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Deakin University
Andrew Bennett, Professor, Landscape Ecology , Deakin University
Michael Clarke, Professor of Zoology, La Trobe University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/21257
2013-12-08T19:23:29Z
2013-12-08T19:23:29Z
Climate Council’s Code Red bushfire warning
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37171/original/9v7yvgnc-1386474056.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Firefighters battle a bushfire close to homes in the Blue Mountains, west of Sydney, in October this year.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Himbrechts</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australians have always had to live with bushfires - but climate change is driving that fire danger even higher.</p>
<p>And we’re not talking about a distant threat to future generations. According to real observations from around the country - summarised in <a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/bushfirereport/">a new report</a> from the Climate Council - we can see that in Australia today, hot days are getting hotter, and heatwaves longer and more frequent. </p>
<p>Some parts of Australia are already becoming drier. Hot, dry conditions are driving up the likelihood of very high fire danger weather, especially in the southwest and southeast. In southeast Australia, the fire season is already becoming longer, reducing the opportunities for hazard reduction burning.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/bushfirereport/">Be prepared: Climate change and the Australian bushfire threat</a> is the Climate Council’s is our first major report since <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-24/tim-flannery-to-relaunch-climate-commission/4976608">re-launching as a community-funded non-profit group</a> just over three months ago, and it provides a comprehensive, up-to-date summary of the influence of climate change on bushfires.</p>
<p>We have drawn heavily from the peer-reviewed scientific literature, as well as on submissions to several recent inquiries and Royal Commissions into bushfires and their impacts.</p>
<h2>Setting new records</h2>
<p>This has been a <a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/2013/11/14/october-heat-report/">record-breaking year for Australia</a>. </p>
<p>We have just experienced our hottest 12 months on record. New South Wales has experienced the hottest September on record, days well above average in October and exceptionally dry conditions. These record hot, dry conditions have influenced recent fires in NSW. </p>
<p>The 2009 Black Saturday fires in Victoria were also preceded by a decade-long drought with a string of record hot years, coupled with a severe heatwave in the preceding week. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Fire Danger Rating used by the Bureau of Meteorology.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.bom.gov.au</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire/">Forest Fire Danger Index</a>, an indicator of fire risk, reached record levels on Black Saturday. </p>
<p>National fire danger ratings have since been <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/new-code-red-warning-for-dangerous-fire-days-20090910-fjdr.html">revised</a> to include a new extreme category: <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/file_system/attachments/Attachment_FireDangerRating.pdf">“Catastrophic”</a> or <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/warnings-restrictions/about-fire-danger-ratings/">“Code Red”</a>. </p>
<h2>Planning ahead</h2>
<p>Australia is very likely to see an increased number of days with extreme fire danger in future.</p>
<p>Fire frequency and intensity is expected to increase substantially in coming decades in many regions, especially in those regions currently most affected by bushfires, and where a substantial proportion of the Australian population lives.</p>
<p>It is crucial that communities, emergency services, health services and other authorities are adequately supported and resourced to prepare for the increasing severity and frequency of extreme fire conditions.</p>
<h2>The critical decade</h2>
<p>Scientists have been studying human effects on the atmosphere <a href="http://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf">since the 19th century</a>. Our understanding of climate science is now better than ever. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://theconversation.com/updating-the-state-of-australias-climate-15233">June this year,</a> the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_Commission">Climate Commission</a> (as we were then) released the report, <a href="http://apo.org.au/research/critical-decade-2013-climate-change-science-risks-and-responses">The Critical Decade 2013: Climate change science, risks and responses</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Climate Commission’s answers to common questions about bushfires.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Climate Council’s new report on bushfires and climate change adds to this and the plethora of other research urging us to take action.</p>
<p>The impacts of climate change, such as increased bushfire risk, are already being observed. Whichever metaphor one chooses to represent the risks that climate change represents - rolling a dice, Russian roulette, driving towards the edge of a cliff in fog - it is clear that we have the information we need to act now.</p>
<p>Australia must strive to cut emissions rapidly and deeply to join global efforts to stabilize the world’s climate and to reduce the risk of even more extreme events, including bushfires.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/21257/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Hughes receives funding from the ARC for her work as an ecologist and expert on the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems.
She is a member of the Land Sector Carbon and Biodiversity Board, the co-convenor of the Terrestrial Biodiversity Adaptation Research Network, chair of the Tasmanian Climate Action Council and a member of Climate Scientists Australia and the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.
She donates her time as a councillor with the Climate Council, an independent non-profit organisation. This new fire report was published with donations from founding friends, supporters and donors.
</span></em></p>
Australians have always had to live with bushfires - but climate change is driving that fire danger even higher. And we’re not talking about a distant threat to future generations. According to real observations…
Lesley Hughes, Head of the Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/19381
2013-10-23T01:06:50Z
2013-10-23T01:06:50Z
What firefighters say about climate change
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/33465/original/7dh49ztm-1382425572.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Firefighters have plenty of ideas about disaster management - so why don't we listen? </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Himbrechts</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>You do not find many climate change sceptics on the end of [fire] hoses anymore… They are dealing with increasing numbers of fires, increasing rainfall events, increasing storm events. – A senior Victorian fire officer, interviewed in 2012 for a recent <a href="http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/attached_files_publications/Howes_2013_Rethinking_disaster_risk_management.pdf">National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility report</a>.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There have been fierce arguments this week about whether it’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-no-place-for-politeness-when-youre-fighting-a-fire-19370">opportunistic to discuss climate change</a> in connection to the devastating New South Wales fires. Amid all the bluster, it’s surprising that we’ve heard so little from one group of experts: frontline emergency service workers, including the firefighters risking their lives for the rest of us.</p>
<p>Yet if you do ask for their opinion - as <a href="http://www.nccarf.edu.au/publications/rethinking-disaster-risk-management-adaptation">we did for a study</a> released in June this year - many, like the senior fire officer quoted above, are not reluctant to talk about climate change. In fact, quite a few of the emergency workers and planners we interviewed said we should be talking about it more, if our communities are to be better prepared for disasters like the one unfolding in NSW right now.</p>
<h2>Prepare for the worst, hope for the best</h2>
<p>In 2012-13, I led a joint research team from Griffith and RMIT to prepare a report for the <a href="http://www.nccarf.edu.au/">National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility</a> (NCCARF) on <a href="http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/attached_files_publications/Howes_2013_Rethinking_disaster_risk_management.pdf">disaster risk management and climate change</a>. </p>
<p>To do so, we compared the emergency responses to Victoria’s <a href="http://www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/commission-reports/final-report">2009 Black Saturday bushfires</a>, the <a href="http://www.publicsector.wa.gov.au/public-administration/sector-performance-and-oversight/reviews-investigations-and-special-inquiries/special-inquiries/perth-hills-bushfire-inquiry">2011 Perth hills bushfires</a>, and the <a href="http://www.floodcommission.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/11698/QFCI-Final-Report-March-2012.pdf">2011 Brisbane floods</a>. </p>
<p>We started by comparing the official inquiry reports into these events to the relevant research on disaster risk management. This was followed up by interviews with 22 experts from Perth, Melbourne and Brisbane, including nine fire officers, five emergency services workers, and eight assorted planners or policy officers. The proposals that emerged were then reviewed at a set of workshops. </p>
<p>One of the most interesting things we found in talking to the emergency service workers was an overwhelming acceptance and concern that climate change was already affecting Australia, based on their personal experiences with disasters. </p>
<p>As a Western Australian fire officer told our research team, we need to “get the scientists, who have a lot to share about climate change and climate change adaptation, talking to the operational people” - a suggestion backed by many of our interviewees.</p>
<h2>Preventing future emergencies</h2>
<p>Our report was not the first time that firefighters and other emergency workers have spoken out about climate change.</p>
<p>For instance, earlier this year it was reported that <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/new-suburbs-warming-climate-to-lift-fire-risk-report-finds-20130220-2eqb7.html">the United Firefighters Union released research</a> by the <a href="http://www.nieir.com.au/">National Institute of Economic and Industry Research</a> that found almost 2 million Australians were relying largely on volunteer fire brigades to protect them and A$500 billion in assets.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/new-suburbs-warming-climate-to-lift-fire-risk-report-finds-20130220-2eqb7.html#ixzz2iQ8pDNL5">same article</a> referred to research from the <a href="http://www.cawcr.gov.au/">Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research</a>, a collaboration between the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, on how the fire season across much of south-eastern Australia appeared to be going on for longer.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ggtg1dPQKN4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Australian emergency services workers explain why they joined Run for a Safe Climate.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In November 2009, <a href="http://www.runforasafeclimate.org/">25 firefighters, paramedics, police, military and emergency services workers</a> spent nearly a month running 6000 kilometres from Cooktown in Queensland to Adelaide and back to Melbourne, speaking to communities along the way about their concerns about climate change. Many of them had worked in <a href="http://www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/finaldocuments/summary/pf/vbrc_summary_pf.pdf">the Black Saturday firestorm</a>, in which 173 people died, as well as the record-breaking heatwave beforehand that <a href="http://www.health.vic.gov.au/environment/heatwaves-publications.htm">health experts estimated killed more than twice</a> as many people as the fires.</p>
<p>In the same year, the <a href="http://www.ufua.asn.au/267.html">United Firefighters Union’s national secretary wrote</a> to then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>On behalf of more than 13,000 firefighters and support staff in Australia, I write this open letter to request a review of Australia’s fire risk… As we battle blazes here in Victoria, firefighters are busy rescuing people from floods in Queensland. Without a massive turnaround in policies, aside from the tragic loss of life and property, we will be asking firefighters to put themselves at an unacceptable risk. </p>
<p>Firefighters know that it is better to prevent an emergency than to have to rescue people from it, and we urge state and federal governments to follow scientific advice and keep firefighters and the community safe by halving the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Lessons to be learnt</h2>
<p>So what can we learn from listening to firefighters and other emergency services workers about how to be better prepared for future disasters?</p>
<p>Our study’s main aim was to come up with a set of practical changes based on those expert views on how to better integrate climate change adaptation into disaster management programs.</p>
<p>One suggestion was to set up a permanent fund, based on the success of <a href="http://www.daff.gov.au/natural-resources/landcare">Landcare</a>. Anyone from government or the community might form a group and bid for money to tackle a particular issue, such as replanting local wetlands to reduce the impacts of flooding.</p>
<p>Another proposal was to set aside some local government funding to set up community resilience grants. Residents would be able to apply to their local council to fund projects, such as creating a network of people ready to assist elderly neighbours in times of bushfires or floods. Locals could even vote in town hall meetings on which proposals their council should fund. </p>
<p>Whatever we do, if we want to handle disasters better in the future, our frontline emergency workers have plenty of ideas to offer - if we’re ready to listen to what they say.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19381/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Howes received funding from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility in 2012.</span></em></p>
You do not find many climate change sceptics on the end of [fire] hoses anymore… They are dealing with increasing numbers of fires, increasing rainfall events, increasing storm events. – A senior Victorian…
Michael Howes, Senior Lecturer in Sustainability and Environmental Policy, Griffith University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/7794
2012-06-27T04:44:49Z
2012-06-27T04:44:49Z
The ethics of bravery: why a Black Saturday ‘hero’ lost his award
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/12212/original/wf8db63j-1340687039.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jeannie Blackburn was the victim of horrific domestic violence from a man commended for heroism.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week, I received an email with the subject line: “Bravery award for baby killer.” </p>
<p>It urged readers to sign <a href="http://www.change.org/petitions/royal-humane-society-stop-defending-a-man-convicted-of-vicious-domestic-violence-and-strip-him-of-the-bravery-award">a Change.org petition</a> calling on the Royal Humane Society of Australia to rescind a bravery award. Paul McCuskey, a volunteer firefighter, had been given a “Certificate of Merit” for helping to save the life of an elderly woman during the Black Saturday bushfires. </p>
<p>Yet McCuskey is now in prison for a series of vicious assaults on his partner Jeannie Blackburn - attacks that caused a miscarriage and left her blind in one eye. In the face of 18,000 petition signatures and calls from Humane Society patron Governor-General Quentin Bryce and the remarkably courageous Ms. Blackburn herself, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-19/man-stripped-of-bravery-award-over-domestic-abuse/4080272">the Society finally withdrew the award</a>.</p>
<p>It’s a tragic case, and one that, <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/brave-irony-for-humane-society-20120608-201ns.html">as Suzy Freeman-Greene points out</a>, raises complex issues. But whether you think websites like <a href="http://www.change.org/">Change.org</a>, <a href="http://www.getup.org.au/">GetUp!</a> and <a href="http://www.allout.org/">All Out</a> are genuine forces for progress or mere conduits for feel-good “slacktivism”, complexity is not something they are set up to handle well. Like their ideological opposite numbers in talkback radio, they need to present clear-cut narratives of right and wrong, with an unambiguous call-to-action at the end.</p>
<p>Yet these issues <em>are</em> unavoidably complex. In fact, the language we saw last week involved a clash between two ancient, competing understandings of morality.</p>
<p>The Humane Society’s objective is “to give public recognition to acts of bravery by bestowing awards on those who risk their own lives in saving or attempting to save the lives of others”. The emphasis here is focused on the moral quality of particular actions. It could be maintained – as the society reportedly initially did – that McCuskey’s actions on Black Saturday <em>were</em> morally praiseworthy, whatever else he’s done. But this way of thinking can easily lead to a sort of ethically crude arithmetic, as if we’re supposed to weigh rights against wrongs and come out with an overall score.</p>
<p>Much of the anger directed at the Humane Society’s decision to award the certificate in the first place, on the other hand, used a very different type of moral language: not evaluation of the action, but evaluation of the agent. Awards, we’re told, are for heroes - and a man who beats his partner cannot be a hero. </p>
<p>This focus on character belongs to the “virtue ethics” tradition that goes back to Aristotle. Virtues, according to Aristotle, <a href="http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0054%3Abekker%20page%3D1144b">are a job lot</a>: you can’t be a generous thief or an honest glutton, because your vices will eventually disrupt and defeat your virtues. </p>
<p>But moral heroes often turn out to be flawed. Oskar Schindler, for instance, saved thousands of lives yet was unfaithful to his wife. </p>
<p>Even more troubling are the monsters who seem distressingly normal in other contexts. We find Stalin warmly addressing his daughter as “<a href="http://books.google.com.au/books?id=7kZNnKlKNp4C&pg=PT142&dq=%22my+little+sparrow,+my+great+joy%22&hl=en&sa=X&ei=YGbhT_WfLcmtiAexu9SsDw&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=%22my%20little%20sparrow%2C%20my%20great%20joy%22&f=false">my little sparrow, my great joy</a>” or tucking Beria’s children into bed disturbingly humanising, as if these scenes somehow mitigate his crimes. Or perhaps it actually makes him <em>more</em> monstrous somehow.</p>
<p>So, what should the Humane Society have done?</p>
<p>Let’s go back a step. Why do we have bravery awards? Not because we want to reward the virtue of courage per se, nor because we want to reward people for saving lives; otherwise every skydiver and surgeon would get one. </p>
<p>Rather, we give such awards in the aftermath of crises where the value and meaning of human life has nearly been obliterated by the absurdity of senseless, arbitrary destruction. </p>
<p>We reward those who hold that threat back, who in risking their own lives testify to the depth of the ways in which we value each other and thereby keep the moral sphere from coming apart. In chaotic moments that threaten to engulf us in meaninglessness, those who perform such acts keep the fabric of our moral universe temporarily intact.</p>
<p>You might say that a violent person can still perform such an act. But the “domestic” in “domestic violence” doesn’t just refer to a location, and the evil of domestic violence is not simply in the horrific physical and psychological harm it causes. </p>
<p>To understand the scale of its moral obscenity we must appreciate the depth of what it violates: the web of vulnerability, love, trust and security that unites us to those we live in the greatest intimacy with. An assault on the people given to us to love unconditionally shatters the moral sense and meaning of our most vital relationships. It is not simply violence in the home, but violence <em>against</em> the home, with everything that “home” implies.</p>
<p>Domestic violence is therefore <em>more</em> than violence: it’s a treason against the moral sphere itself. </p>
<p>To award someone for preserving the moral sphere who had also betrayed it in such a repugnant way would have been perverse.</p>
<p>Grappling with questions like this is hard work. It takes patience, an openness to dialogue and a certain degree of humility. But when our main avenues for talking about these issues are through soundbites and tweets, those virtues can be in short supply. </p>
<p>Online petitions are great - I’ve signed quite a few myself. But let’s not pretend we can just click our way out of moral perplexity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/7794/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Stokes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Last week, I received an email with the subject line: “Bravery award for baby killer.” It urged readers to sign a Change.org petition calling on the Royal Humane Society of Australia to rescind a bravery…
Patrick Stokes, Lecturer in Philosophy, Deakin University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.