tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/boxing-day-tsunami-anniversary-13931/articlesBoxing Day tsunami anniversary – The Conversation2014-12-28T07:26:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/357302014-12-28T07:26:52Z2014-12-28T07:26:52ZBoxing Day tsunami heralded new era of citizen journalism<p>The camera jerks as the wave crashes through the wall of the restaurant. The tables set out for a wedding breakfast are swept aside. The man behind the camera doesn’t realise the awful reality of what he is seeing: “There’s an even bigger wave out there … I hope they all can swim,” he comments until his companion says: “Put your camera away.”</p>
<p>The tsunami of December 26, 2004, changed the way we report major news stories. It was not the first event to use <a href="http://journalism.about.com/od/citizenjournalism/a/whatiscitizen.htm">citizen journalism</a>, but it was the first disaster where the dominant images came from ordinary people. </p>
<p>As Tom Glocer, then head of Reuters, <a href="http://tomglocer.com/blogs/sample_weblog/archive/2006/10/11/97.aspx">pointed out</a>, none of the wire agency’s 2,300 journalists or 1,000 stringers were on the beaches the moment the wave struck. “For the first 24 hours,” he said, “the best and the only photos and video came from tourists. And if you didn’t have those pictures, you weren’t on the story.”</p>
<p>So coverage of the tsunami threatened to challenge the very nature of journalism itself – which has prided itself on bearing witness and breaking and distributing news. (In the case of the tsunami, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/on-the-front-line-15131.html">journalists were left scrambling to pick up holidaymakers’ video at the airport</a>.)</p>
<h2>Questions of taste</h2>
<p>But it also meant that fundamental questions have been raised in the past decade about this change in approach – over privacy, verification, taste and decency. We have moved from an era when a reader photograph was seen as a interesting novelty, to a time when, as a former night picture editor <a href="http://www.gentlemenranters.com/page_325.html">put it</a>: “Within seconds of a story breaking, news and picture desks are all assigning reporters, photographers and picture researchers to log-in to Facebook, Twitter, Linked-In.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67826/original/image-20141219-31554-1fzp54h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67826/original/image-20141219-31554-1fzp54h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67826/original/image-20141219-31554-1fzp54h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67826/original/image-20141219-31554-1fzp54h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67826/original/image-20141219-31554-1fzp54h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67826/original/image-20141219-31554-1fzp54h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67826/original/image-20141219-31554-1fzp54h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67826/original/image-20141219-31554-1fzp54h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Snapped by a citizen: Hurricane Sandy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/brbirke/8136005269/in/photolist-dpvQe3-dpBMGz-dpQnrj-doXhLd-dpgUwZ-doXi1E-dsRm4e-doX9UV-doXie9-dpgSt8-dpAsH1-dpC8it-dppWBm-dpNykZ-dySE8w-doXi8Y-doXhU1-dpsdJt-dp27up-dpbZjJ-dt3Kr7-doW6xe-doVetQ-dt3HMo-doXhPo-dpgTrF-dpgYgL-dpC9h2-dpgznu-dph1Gb-dpNydt-dpgQ8a-doWbHd-dpuGkP-doXWWY-doVyHP-dpCo8N-dpfNPq-e15PGF-dpK5fU-dpC6dX-dpcP8o-doTeFV-dpCgqf-dpCvad-dpQb47-dpaerP-dpQ9KG-doWd21-dpcF32">Brian Birke</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>How has this altered journalism? Whole new methods of verification have had to be put in place, with most media outlets now having guidelines in place or using verification agencies like <a href="http://storyful.com">Storyful</a>. Everyone remembers the <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/hurricane-sandy-virals-sharks-swimming-1408231">Hurricane Sandy shark pictures</a> as an obvious hoax, but many media outlets have erroneously put up pictures that are not what they seem. </p>
<p>Even The Guardian – which has pioneered an open journalism approach – has been caught out, for example putting up a picture of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2011/mar/11/japan-earthquake?commentpage=3">on its live blog</a> for the Great East Japan quake of the same year.</p>
<h2>Raw and personal</h2>
<p>The style of journalism has altered as well. Citizen journalism by its nature tends to be subjective, raw, and intensely personal; this has started to influence the way mainstream media has reported events. At its extreme, you get reporters like CNN’s Anderson Cooper and Dr Sanjay Gupta who, during the 2010 Haitian earthquake were filmed rescuing a boy from a mob, and performing surgery on a girl respectively. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SfoiQXnbnf8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Becoming the story.</span></figcaption>
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<p>While the debate about how and when journalists get involved has been around for decades, the decision to film and report in such a way was different. As Adrian Chen of Gawker <a href="http://gawker.com/5451459/anderson-cooper-saves-boy-as-cnns-haiti-coverage-reaches-strange-apotheosis">put it</a>: “At what point does this go from ‘CNN’s Excellent Haiti Coverage’ to ‘CNN’s Excellent Haiti Adventure?’”</p>
<p>There are also legal and ethical problems that emerge with the increasing use of information via social media, such as privacy. We increasingly put our life on line via sites such as Facebook, Flickr, Instagram and Twitter. And increasingly those pictures find their way into the mainstream media, being shared way beyond where their creators assumed they would go.</p>
<h2>The ‘virtual doorstep’</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.city.ac.uk/centre-for-law-justice-and-journalism/phd-students/glenda-cooper">As part of my PhD</a> I have talked to many survivors of disasters whose pictures and words have been used by the mainstream media. Most were happy, flattered that their material had been used – but also felt overwhelmed by the media interest not just in their pictures but in them personally. The “virtual doorstep” as I have called it, where a Twitter user can be deluged with requests from media online can seem just as overwhelming as the old-style physical doorstep.</p>
<p>The graphic images that can be found online has also mean that there have been concerns that media imagery is becoming more violent, something that seems to be borne out when we recall the front pages of pictures of Saddam Hussein’s execution or Colonel Gaddafi’s death. </p>
<p>Yet despite criticism by people such Suzanne Moore who dubbed coverage of Gaddafi a <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2052374/Gaddafi-dead-He-coming-did-really-need-gloat-like-barbarians.html">“snuff fest”</a>, research by academics such as <a href="http://ejc.sagepub.com/content/28/5/497.abstract">Folker Hanusch</a> suggests that increasingly violent images are still being resisted by the mainstream media. </p>
<p>What is interesting is that media organisations are increasingly having to consider how they deal with staff back in the office, not in the field, who may be traumatised. These are those journalists whose job is to sit and watch UGC videos to decide what can go on air. Organisations such as the BBC have had put in place guidance to ensure that staff are not exposed to traumatic and distressing footage, that comes with no warning, unlike wire images.</p>
<p>It’s hard to believe now, but at the time many believed that the tsunami coverage was a one-off. One commentator surmised that the intense interest in such photos and blogs was down to the story being about <a href="http://www.icmpa.umd.edu/assets/documents_studies/JIA_disaster_article.pdf">“white westerners in bathing suits”</a>. Yet ten years on, we can see the tsunami was a key moment in changing what we believe journalism to be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35730/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glenda Cooper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The camera jerks as the wave crashes through the wall of the restaurant. The tables set out for a wedding breakfast are swept aside. The man behind the camera doesn’t realise the awful reality of what…Glenda Cooper, PhD student, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/357812014-12-26T17:41:30Z2014-12-26T17:41:30ZSame problems that dogged tsunami response bedevil humanitarian aid today<p>On December 26, 2004, a massive earthquake struck off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. This earthquake triggered the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30572079">most destructive series of tsunamis ever recorded</a>. The tsunamis lashed out across the Indian Ocean, striking as far as the eastern coast of Africa. </p>
<p>Across <a href="http://www.adbi.org/files/2010.12.17.book.asian.tsunami.aid.reconstruction.pdf">the 14 countries affected</a>, 227,898 people lost their lives, and many more were left homeless. The economic cost was estimated at nearly US$10 billion in damages and losses.</p>
<p>The combination of the catastrophic scale of the disaster, the time of year, the rapid spread of video footage, and perhaps that Western tourists were involved, turned this disaster into an instant major news story worldwide. The public were gripped by the unfolding drama in the disaster-affected areas, of stories of individual loss, heroic rescues and astonishing survival against the odds. </p>
<p>This attention sparked fundraising on a global scale, and <a href="http://www.trust.org/spotlight/indian-ocean-tsunami/">more than US$13 billion</a> was raised from governments and public donations. In addition, the affected countries were swamped by hundreds of international humanitarian aid agencies, media crews, military forces, as well as individual do-gooders and disaster tourists. </p>
<p>One might have reasonably assumed that <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/dec/25/where-did-indian-ocean-tsunami-aid-money-go">a deluge of aid</a> would be a good thing. However, especially in the early stages, the co-ordination of aid was muddled and patchy – and the consequences of this were serious.</p>
<h2>Unsavoury competition</h2>
<p>In some areas there was little aid at all, while other places suffered from wasteful duplication of resources. Aid did not always get to those who needed it most, and what was delivered was not always what was needed or wanted.</p>
<p>One unsavoury aspect was the competitive nature of aid. Agencies frequently jostled each other as they sought to establish exclusive control of areas to work in, partly motivated by competition for donor funding. This meant that aid programmes were often informed less by what the disaster survivors really needed, and more by the agendas of the aid donors. </p>
<p>Another issue was the competence of the aid workers and agencies, who ran the gamut from the uninitiated and untrained to highly skilled career professionals.</p>
<p>But only months after the tsunami hit did the full potential harm of the aid effort really begin to come to light. </p>
<p>In some areas, people in the affected areas <a href="http://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/712.pdf">reported that aid had worsened</a> social tensions between different ethnic groups. They complained about the lack of community engagement by the aid agencies, which led to misunderstandings and grievances. There was a perceived lack of transparency, and the communities’ expectations were not always met.</p>
<p>Worryingly, it was reported that the international response greatly undermined local ownership of the disaster response and recovery, and many communities felt that the aid agencies were not accountable to them.</p>
<p>You might think lessons this stark would be readily and eagerly learned – but then on November 8, 2013, a category five super-typhoon named <a href="https://theconversation.com/eyewitness-typhoon-haiyan-strikes-the-philippines-20048">Typhoon Haiyan</a> wreaked death and destruction in the Philippines. </p>
<h2>Sadly familiar</h2>
<p>More than 5,600 people died, 1,759 were missing, and nearly 4m were left displaced and homeless. Many were killed by flying debris and collapsing buildings, or drowned in the storm surge that hit coastal areas.</p>
<p>There are striking similarities between the Indian Ocean tsunami and Typhoon Haiyan. As the tsunami disaster did before it, Haiyan captured the world’s attention, and once again, hundreds of aid agencies flocked to the Philippines – bringing many of the same problems with them.</p>
<p>Once again, both skilled professionals and unskilled volunteers flooded the disaster zone. Competition between the aid agencies for donor funding and areas to work in recurred, as well as the problems with trying to co-ordinate the circus of hundreds of different aid agencies and military forces.</p>
<p>Some myths also prevailed. Contrary to what is usually shown in the media, the immediate response to Haiyan, as to the tsunami, was not international but local. It takes time to mobilise emergency responders and resources from abroad, and only aid agencies already operating in the country before the disaster with ready supplies could act in the immediate aftermath.</p>
<p>There was also the misguided belief that in such disasters there is a need for advance trauma teams and field hospitals. While there may have been an initial need for trauma care for injuries sustained during the typhoon, this need rapidly dissipated; the dead were dead, and most of the living suffered little if any traumatic injuries. </p>
<p>The population’s health needs reverted back within a matter of days to the pre-disaster state, where chronic diseases and minor ailments such as headaches, coughs and colds were more common. Primary healthcare, not costly advance surgical teams, was what was needed afterwards.</p>
<p>There was also an entrenched and erroneous belief of the need to rapidly burn or bury corpses, often in mass graves, for “public health reasons”. But in the absence of a rapidly spreading disease, getting rid of bodies in haste is largely unnecessary. And in the Philippines, as in the tsunami-hit countries in 2004, it meant they were never identified – leaving many survivors with the lifelong anguish of not knowing for certain what became of their loved ones.</p>
<h2>Some positive changes</h2>
<p>But the Haiyan response did show there have been at least some positive changes over the past decade. </p>
<p>Although co-ordination problems plagued both disasters, in the Philippines there appeared to have been greater attempts by aid agencies to co-ordinate their actions. There was also greater use of technology such as satellite imagery, geographic information systems, mobile phones, as well as web-based tools to help share information. </p>
<p>Aid agencies also started to consider early ways of building back the affected communities to be stronger – erecting more storm-proof shelters, teaching better building methods. Initiatives to help restore the livelihoods of affected communities were also introduced earlier, such as microfinance schemes and other employment projects.</p>
<p>Humanitarian aid delivered in the wrong way can and does cause harm. It also has wider impacts on affected communities that are not always appreciated. But many of these issues are not new issues, and have been reported previously in other disasters in other places. Something is badly wrong if efforts to deliver aid today are still causing many of the same problems.</p>
<p>To make humanitarian aid better, the aid sector has to learn from past disasters. Sadly, the knowledge base that informs effective disaster response is scant and patchy, and is based too heavily on high income country settings, even though most natural disasters tend to affect poorer nations. </p>
<p>That said, study in this field is increasing, thanks in no small part to the internet. Unless aid agencies learn the lessons of the past, they will continue to repeat the same mistakes in the future. While the usual models of humanitarian aid are still imperfect, there is still no better alternative.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On December 26, 2004, a massive earthquake struck off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. This earthquake triggered the most destructive series of tsunamis ever recorded. The tsunamis lashed out across the…Andrew Lee, Senior Clinical University Lecturer, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/358062014-12-26T17:04:05Z2014-12-26T17:04:05ZScientists are deep sea drilling to learn more about earthquakes and tsunamis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68054/original/image-20141224-32207-u790n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chikyu: a drillship more interested in crust than oil.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Chikyu_1.jpg">Gleam</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ten years on from the devastating Boxing Day earthquake and tsunami, our understanding of very large earthquakes has grown enormously. From satellites monitoring changes on the Earth’s surface to drilling deep below the ocean floor, new techniques are constantly being developed to help us figure out why earthquakes are sometimes so big, and so deadly. </p>
<p>The 2004 earthquake ruptured the fault marking the contact between two tectonic plates at a subduction zone, where one plate slides beneath another – the locations on Earth where the very largest earthquakes and tsunami are generated.</p>
<p>Before 2004, the last earthquake of magnitude nine or larger occurred in 1964, <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/events/alaska1964/">in Alaska</a>. However in the past decade there have been several very large quakes, including <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8540289.stm">Chile in 2010</a> and the <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/site/feature/data/hottopics/japanquake/">2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake</a> in Japan that caused the Fukushima nuclear power station meltdowns. </p>
<p>We know a great deal more about these recent events than we did the Alaska earthquake as, not surprisingly, the technology we use is a lot more advanced than in the 1960s. Satellites can now track the movement of the Earth’s surface during, before and after an earthquake using GPS, and they can <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=5177">track a tsunami wave</a> in the deep ocean. Techniques to record the earthquake waves and to resolve the details of the earthquake fault slip are now much more sophisticated. And we can gain much higher resolution details of geological layers and structure under the seafloor, helping us find out more about earthquake faults.</p>
<h2>Slipping and sliding</h2>
<p>The 2004 earthquake occurred when the Indian plate slipped beneath the Sunda plate. Though scientists were well aware this was an active fault line, the plate slipped over a much larger area and further into the shallow fault zone than anticipated.</p>
<p>The 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami that followed was even more unexpected in character: the fault slipped into its very shallowest section and the slip was the greatest ever recorded on a fault – the fault (and in turn the overlying seabed) moved by up to 50-60m. To put this into context, in a “typical” large earthquake, the fault slips by about 5-10m and still causes very damaging effects.</p>
<p>For the first time, equipment on the seafloor offshore Japan in 2011 measured the changes in pressure as the seafloor moved, and was able to record the magnitude of the fault slip. This very large and shallow slip certainly amplified the tsunami, leading to devastating results.</p>
<p>These recent earthquakes have truly called into question the existing models for very large earthquake generation and have resulted in scientists rapidly generating new ideas and re-examining the hazard potential at other subduction zones around the world.</p>
<h2>Drilling for the answers?</h2>
<p>Although we now have very sophisticated techniques to remotely record the earthquake process and the geology below the seafloor, we really need to sample the fault rocks themselves, where the real action goes on and where earthquakes are generated, typically 5km or more below the surface or seafloor.</p>
<p>Sampling this zone “in situ” is one of the holy grails of modern fault and earthquake studies – and the only way to do this is through ocean drilling using the same techniques as the petroleum industry. </p>
<p>In the past 10-15 years projects tackling active faults and the earthquake process, particularly at subduction zones, have increased in number and in the boldness of their objectives, drilling in very challenging conditions. </p>
<p>Drilling is ongoing on the tectonic plate margin of Japan as part of the <a href="http://www.jamstec.go.jp/chikyu/nantroseize/e/">NanTroSEIZE</a> programme, south of the region affected by the 2011 earthquake. Scientists have drilled lots of boreholes to sample different parts of the system and the project is currently 2km from the primary target fault zone. This part of the Japanese plate boundary generates damaging tsunami-genic earthquakes about every 150-200 years and the project will not only sample the fault rocks but also continuously monitor the fault to help reduce potential risk. </p>
<p>Further north along the Japan coast, and soon after the 2011 earthquake, a team of scientists rapidly prepared a ship to drill through the shallow fault where the extremely large slip occurred. The rock samples they brought back to the ship were unexpectedly weak and we now believe this is why there was such large and shallow slip. </p>
<h2>Finding the next mega-earthquake</h2>
<p>Weakness of the earthquake fault may be the answer for the surprising 2011 earthquake but what about other subduction zones? </p>
<p>A drilling expedition will sail to the tectonic margin off Sumatra in 2016 to drill into the sediments supplying the fault zone that generated the 2004 earthquake. Here we hypothesise that the sediments may be especially strong and that this resulted in shallower fault slip than expected – the opposite to what has been proposed for the Japan 2011 earthquake fault. </p>
<p>If both theories are correct, we will need to revisit global subduction zones to re-assess sediment and fault properties and how these faults may slip in future.</p>
<p>Since the 2004 earthquake and tsunami we’ve learned a lot but, as is often the case in science, we now have new questions to answer. However new technology is giving us the ability to answer them – this is a very important time to be an Earth scientist.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35806/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa McNeill receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council, the Royal Society and the University of Southampton.</span></em></p>Ten years on from the devastating Boxing Day earthquake and tsunami, our understanding of very large earthquakes has grown enormously. From satellites monitoring changes on the Earth’s surface to drilling…Lisa McNeill, Professor of Tectonics, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/358032014-12-26T16:59:13Z2014-12-26T16:59:13ZBoxing Day tsunami: the resilience and recovery that followed<p>The 2004 tsunami devastated thousands of communities in countries bordering the Indian Ocean. Both urban and rural areas were destroyed along thousands of miles of coastline. But, in the tsunami’s aftermath, a massive reconstruction and recovery effort was mounted, which has been a spectacular success in many ways. </p>
<p>Communities that the waves had reduced to rubble feel normal today. The rhythms of daily life have been re-established through hard work and perseverance of individuals, families and communities. This was helped by more than US$7 billion in aid that was committed by the provincial governments, national governments, NGOs, and international donors to help not just rebuild communities that had been destroyed but to “build back better”. </p>
<p>Why some places recover after a huge natural disaster, such as the Boxing Day tsunami, and others do not is not fully understood since detailed data on populations before an unexpected disaster seldom exist and only a handful of population-based studies have successfully followed people affected by a disaster over the longer-term. To address this gap, we led an international team that established the <a href="https://ipl.econ.duke.edu/dthomas/research.html#STAR">Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery</a> (STAR) to better understand the immediate and longer-term impacts of what happened. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68045/original/image-20141224-32213-o2orvl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68045/original/image-20141224-32213-o2orvl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68045/original/image-20141224-32213-o2orvl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68045/original/image-20141224-32213-o2orvl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68045/original/image-20141224-32213-o2orvl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68045/original/image-20141224-32213-o2orvl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68045/original/image-20141224-32213-o2orvl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68045/original/image-20141224-32213-o2orvl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Map of STAR sites in Aceh and North Sumatra.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Duncan Thomas</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>STAR builds on a <a href="http://catalog.ihsn.org/index.php/catalog/4887/overview#page=overview&tab=study-desc">population-representative survey</a>
conducted ten months before the tsunami by <a href="http://www.bps.go.id/eng/">Statistics Indonesia</a> that included 30,000 people who, at the time of the tsunami, were living in nearly 500 communities along the Acehnese and North Sumatran coastlines. Destruction was greatest in this area, where 170,000 people perished. </p>
<p>Within months of the tsunami, we worked together to trace and interview the same people. We interviewed them annually for five years and the ten-year follow-up is now underway. Our study includes communities that were very badly damaged by the tsunami and had a high number of tsunami-related deaths, along with other comparable communities that were nearby but not directly affected.</p>
<h2>Lost homes, land and livelihoods</h2>
<p>The tsunami wrought unfathomable destruction to homes, land and livelihoods. About half a million people were displaced. To understand how the tsunami affected the entire population, it was imperative that we followed people who moved and our team has managed to interview 96% of the survivors. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68055/original/image-20141224-32225-sb0rjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68055/original/image-20141224-32225-sb0rjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68055/original/image-20141224-32225-sb0rjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68055/original/image-20141224-32225-sb0rjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68055/original/image-20141224-32225-sb0rjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68055/original/image-20141224-32225-sb0rjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68055/original/image-20141224-32225-sb0rjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The destruction caused by the tsunami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Elizabeth Frankenburg</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most of the displaced <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00045608.2014.892351">lost their homes in the tsunami.</a> Many lost family and friends. About half moved to camps that were set up for the displaced. The other half moved to other communities and lived with family or friends or rented homes. Fully two-thirds of the population in badly damaged areas moved away. Five years later, almost all those who moved to a camp have returned but only two-thirds of those who moved elsewhere returned.</p>
<h2>Rebuilding and replanting</h2>
<p>Home-building was a major component of the recovery effort and 140,000 homes were built. Over half those living in heavily-damaged communities have benefited directly from housing assistance and 90% of households in those areas own their homes today. This rate, which is slightly higher than its pre-tsunami level, is a steep increase from the 60% rate shortly after the tsunami. Today, home ownership rates are the same in heavily-damaged and other, comparable areas. While home quality varies, the reconstruction programme played a major role in helping families build back a key asset they lost in the tsunami.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68056/original/image-20141224-32197-1k4sabe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68056/original/image-20141224-32197-1k4sabe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68056/original/image-20141224-32197-1k4sabe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68056/original/image-20141224-32197-1k4sabe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68056/original/image-20141224-32197-1k4sabe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68056/original/image-20141224-32197-1k4sabe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68056/original/image-20141224-32197-1k4sabe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A house built as part of the tsunami reconstruction effort.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Elizabeth Frankenberg</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The tsunami destroyed livelihoods including crops and croplands, boats, fishing and aquaculture ponds. Paddies were inundated with seawater rendering them unsuitable for rice cultivation. Before the tsunami, about one in three households grew rice, the staple crop. In areas not inundated by the tsunami, the fraction rose slightly the year after the disaster. </p>
<p>In areas that were flooded, however, nearly two-thirds of farmers permanently switched out of rice. Some switched to other crops but more than one-third of farmers have not returned to farming. Non-farming businesses also suffered. Before the tsunami, about 40% of households in tsunami-affected areas ran a business; about 10% lost their businesses and these too have not re-started their business. </p>
<h2>Return to work</h2>
<p>But these people did not stop working. Families did everything they could to shore up their incomes – a response that was seen across all Indonesia <a href="http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/XXXVIII/2/280.full.pdf">at the time of the 1998 financial crisis</a>. Today, men are slightly more likely to be working than they were before the tsunami, while women are far more likely to be. This is because women who had not traditionally been working outside the home helped out in family businesses or took on other work to shore up family income.</p>
<p>The slight increase among men reflects the new work opportunities from the reconstruction effort. For example, the fraction of young men working is much higher in areas heavily-damaged by the tsunami, compared to those in less-badly hit areas. Meanwhile, more older men have left the work force at greater rates.</p>
<p>The overall impression ten years after the tsunami is of extraordinary resilience and recovery. But, from an economic perspective, the reconstruction effort did not benefit everyone equally. Some have benefited enormously, others not so much. Continuing to follow the STAR respondents will provide a richer picture of the longer-term impact of the tsunami and its aftermath on many dimensions of the health and well-being of the Acehnese and North Sumatrans.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35803/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duncan Thomas receives funding from the National Institutes of Health. He directs the Development Economics program at the National Bureau of Economic Research and is a member of the board of the Bureau for Research in the Economic Analysis of Development..</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Frankenberg receives funding from the National Institutes of Health.</span></em></p>The 2004 tsunami devastated thousands of communities in countries bordering the Indian Ocean. Both urban and rural areas were destroyed along thousands of miles of coastline. But, in the tsunami’s aftermath…Duncan Thomas, Norb F. Schaefer Professor of International Studies, Duke UniversityElizabeth Frankenberg, Professor, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/351552014-12-26T07:45:55Z2014-12-26T07:45:55ZBoxing Day tsunami: balancing social and physical recovery<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67565/original/image-20141217-31043-1n9276h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Only a community development approach can truly result in 'build back better' when it comes to responding to natural disasters such as the Boxing Day tsunami.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Peter Endig</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There have been many natural disasters since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but none have exceeded it in the combination of scale and scope of its destructive impacts. </p>
<p>The scale of devastation for coastal communities in the Indonesian province of Aceh was unprecedented, and the shock was felt globally. The tsunami waves resulted in death and destruction on unsuspecting communities as far away from the earthquake epicentre as northeast Sri Lanka and southern India.</p>
<p>The world responded with remarkable concern and compassion for the tsunami victims. But the aid and the involvement in relief and recovery efforts by so many agencies caused major headaches for national or provincial governments who were caught unprepared. Sri Lanka, in particular, had no inkling that it was vulnerable to a disaster of this kind and scale and so the relief and recovery effort became something of an experiment. </p>
<h2>Aid relief: careful versus quick</h2>
<p>The lack of co-ordination at local and regional levels and the desire of international aid agencies to have quick, reportable, outcomes <a href="https://docs.unocha.org/sites/dms/Documents/Syn_Report_Summary_Final_Version_Jan_2007.pdf">led to</a> considerable wastage of the delivered aid. One lesson of the tsunami disaster in Sri Lanka is that there should be an emphasis on using aid money carefully and patiently rather than too hastily.</p>
<p>Also, the mantra of <a href="http://practicalaction.org/principles-building-back-better">“build back better”</a> meant that well-meaning people and agencies commonly made decisions that left people in worse situations than before in terms of access to livelihoods and the maintaining social support networks. Relocation, to reduce future disaster vulnerabilities, was <a href="http://cdj.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2011/04/15/cdj.bsr025">often handled</a> without adequate consultation and attention given to the complex, long-term, social needs of the disaster victims.</p>
<p>I was the head researcher on a four-year study for AusAID on what could be learnt from the efforts to rebuild tsunami-affected local communities in Sri Lanka and southern India. This <a href="http://cdj.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2011/04/15/cdj.bsr025">study</a> found that the immediate relief effort was better than had been expected. However, authorities made mistakes when people were put into hastily constructed temporary shelters on the assumption that they would soon be moved into new permanent housing. </p>
<p>As a result, the planning and construction of new permanent settlements was often rushed and inadequate attention was paid to their location, layout, and even the question of co-location of people who could either reconstitute or establish strong social networks.</p>
<p>A recent study, headed by Professor Siri Hettige of the University of Colombo, found that some settlements built to house tsunami victims in Sri Lanka have now been abandoned. A significant number of survey respondents also reported that social cohesion in the new communities was worse than what they had known before the tsunami. </p>
<p>The special needs of women were also not addressed during the different stages of relief and recovery. Hettige’s survey found that more women than men felt that they had not received the assistance they needed.</p>
<p>Our earlier study found that it is important to distinguish between the immediate relief effort, when speed and efficiency is paramount, and the subsequent stages of intermediate and long-term recovery. For the intermediate stage, disaster victims need to be housed in adequate temporary accommodation so that the planning and construction of new permanent settlements is not rushed.</p>
<p>Local knowledge is critical for the planning and construction of temporary accommodation where people might be housed for years rather than months. It becomes even more important for the physical and social planning for new permanent settlements.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, disaster relief and recovery work tends to be dominated by people who have good logistical and technical skills but they may have little experience or competency in regard to social planning or community engagement. The work continues to be rather gender-blind.</p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>International research on disaster management is full of rhetorical commitments to community engagement and participation in relief and recovery work. However, this work requires extreme patience and an aptitude that is not commonly found among those who are attracted to disaster management work. </p>
<p>I have <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.12038/abstract">argued</a> recently that the United Nations should set up a new agency or sub-agency charged with responsibility to collate examples of good practice in regard to community engagement in disaster preparation, relief and recovery. This can then be used to train people for this kind of work. Only a community development approach can truly result in “build back better”. </p>
<p>International aid agencies commonly espouse a commitment to community development. However, they commonly pursue a set timeframe for engagement and withdrawal without having proper transition arrangements in place to ensure that any efforts made to build community infrastructure can be continued after they withdraw.</p>
<p>We now have a growing body of examples of good and bad practice in regard to the rebuilding of disaster-affected communities. However, the rhetoric of “build back better” continues to ignore this important work. The onset of global climate change suggests that more local communities will be in the path of unexpected disasters that can divide communities and leave many people worse off than they were before. </p>
<p>It is time to think much more carefully about what it takes to work with affected people and communities to ensure that their long-term social needs can be addressed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35155/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Mulligan receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>There have been many natural disasters since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but none have exceeded it in the combination of scale and scope of its destructive impacts. The scale of devastation for coastal…Martin Mulligan, Senior Researcher, Globalism Research Centre, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/350992014-12-26T07:44:12Z2014-12-26T07:44:12ZTen years after the Boxing Day tsunami, are coasts any safer?<p>Ten years ago we witnessed one of the worst natural disasters in history, when a huge earthquake off the coast of Sumatra triggered a devastating tsunami which swept across the Indian Ocean. </p>
<p>An <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn9931-facts-and-figures-asian-tsunami-disaster.html#.VIU5UmSUe6E">estimated 230,000 people lost their lives</a>, and 1.6 million people lost their homes or livelihoods. </p>
<p>The impact was greatest in northern Sumatra because of its proximity to the earthquake. Catastrophic shaking was followed within minutes by the full force of the tsunami. </p>
<h2>Avoidable deaths</h2>
<p>Thousands of people were also killed in distant countries, where the earthquake could not be felt. If they had received a warning of the approaching tsunami, they could have moved inland, uphill or out to sea, and survived. Tsunami take several hours to cross an ocean, becoming much larger and slower as they reach the coast.</p>
<p>Back in 2004 there were long-established tsunami warning systems in the <a href="http://ptwc.weather.gov/">Pacific Ocean</a>, which has many <a href="http://www.livescience.com/43220-subduction-zone-definition.html">subduction zones</a> – places where two tectonic plates collide – capable of generating huge earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. </p>
<p>Other regions, including the Indian Ocean, did not have a warning system. The probability of a major tsunami was judged to be too low to justify the cost, especially for poorer countries. </p>
<p>The Boxing Day 2004 disaster changed all that. </p>
<h2>Progress in the past decade</h2>
<p>In early 2005, the UN agreed to develop an <a href="http://www.unesco.org/new/en/natural-sciences/ioc-oceans/high-level-objectives/marine-hazards/#c95755">international warning system</a> including regional systems in the Indian Ocean, North East Atlantic & Mediterranean, and Caribbean. The <a href="http://www.ioc-tsunami.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8:indian-ocean-home&catid=11&Itemid=13">Indian Ocean tsunami warning system</a> was developed between 2006 and 2013, at a total cost of at least $19 million. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66590/original/image-20141208-16311-1qb7dwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66590/original/image-20141208-16311-1qb7dwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66590/original/image-20141208-16311-1qb7dwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66590/original/image-20141208-16311-1qb7dwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66590/original/image-20141208-16311-1qb7dwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66590/original/image-20141208-16311-1qb7dwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66590/original/image-20141208-16311-1qb7dwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Japan has installed more buoys in the wake of its own 2011 disaster.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the three years prior to October 2014, bulletins were issued about 23 Indian Ocean earthquakes, resulting in a small number of potentially life-saving coastal evacuations. Most of these 23 earthquakes did not actually generate a threatening tsunami because they did not cause significant uplift or subsidence of the seafloor. But false alarms can provide reassurance that communications work well, or highlight weaknesses. </p>
<p>Communications and evacuation procedures are also regularly tested by international mock drills, often based on worst case scenarios. </p>
<h2>How do tsunami warning systems work?</h2>
<p>All warning systems work in the same general way. First, a network of broadband seismometers detects the seismic waves generated by an earthquake, which travel at speeds of several kilometres per second. When several seismometers have detected the seismic waves, the location and approximate magnitude of the earthquake can be computed. If the epicentre is under water and the magnitude large (greater than 6.5 on the Richter, or <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/measure.php">moment magnitude</a>, scale) a tsunami bulletin, watch or warning is issued to local communication centres, ideally within three minutes of the earthquake. If the epicentre is nearby and the probability of a tsunami is high, evacuation procedures will be initiated immediately. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66402/original/image-20141205-8642-w1u9yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66402/original/image-20141205-8642-w1u9yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66402/original/image-20141205-8642-w1u9yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66402/original/image-20141205-8642-w1u9yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66402/original/image-20141205-8642-w1u9yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66402/original/image-20141205-8642-w1u9yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66402/original/image-20141205-8642-w1u9yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If all else fails, follow the signs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tsunami_warning_signs_Ao_Nang.jpg">Kallerna</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Otherwise, local centres will standby for confirmation of whether a tsunami has actually been generated. Confirmation comes within about 30-60 minutes, using a network of tsunami buoys and seafloor pressure recorders. These detect the series of waves (usually less than a couple of metres high and travelling at about 800 km/h) in the open ocean, and transmit the data by satellite to a regional control centre. </p>
<p>Tsunami warnings reach the public via TV, radio, email, text messages, sirens and loudspeakers. You can sign up to receive tsunami alerts anywhere in the world by SMS on your mobile phone, thanks to a not-for-profit humanitarian service called <a href="http://cwarn.org">CWarn.org</a>.</p>
<p>Many high-risk areas also have signage to alert people to “natural” warnings (such as strong shaking or a sudden withdrawal of the sea), and direct them to higher ground.</p>
<h2>Limitations of warning systems</h2>
<p>The Pacific and Japanese warning systems helped to ensure the major tsunami generated off the coast of Japan on 11 March 2011 caused <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/17/world/asia/japan-earthquake---tsunami-fast-facts/">far fewer deaths</a> (15,000) than the 2004 disaster. However, it showed that even a wealthy and well-prepared nation such as Japan cannot fully protect people from extreme hazards, and that warning systems can sometimes lead to a false sense of security. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66596/original/image-20141208-16338-1nl3ie6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66596/original/image-20141208-16338-1nl3ie6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66596/original/image-20141208-16338-1nl3ie6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66596/original/image-20141208-16338-1nl3ie6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66596/original/image-20141208-16338-1nl3ie6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66596/original/image-20141208-16338-1nl3ie6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66596/original/image-20141208-16338-1nl3ie6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Japan, 2011: fewer lives were lost but the damage was immense.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami#mediaviewer/File:Signpost_of_prayer_and_wish.JPG">Chief Hira</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The slow rupture of the subduction zone near Japan meant the initial warnings underestimated the magnitude of the earthquake and resulting tsunami. Many people did not move to higher ground in the vital few minutes after receiving the warning, because they wrongly assumed the tsunami would be stopped by 5-10 m high sea walls. </p>
<p>Japan has learned from this tragedy and, among other things, made changes to tsunami warning messages, improved coastal defences, and installed more seismometers and tsunami buoys. </p>
<h2>Will more tsunami disasters occur?</h2>
<p>It is impossible to predict exactly when or where the next major tsunami will occur. They are very rare events in our limited historical record. But by dating prehistoric tsunami deposits, we can see that major tsunamis happen on average every few hundred years in many coastal regions. </p>
<p>Future tsunami disasters are inevitable, but with better technology, education and governance we can realistically hope that a loss of life on the scale of the 2004 tsunami disaster will not happen again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35099/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Heath is affiliated with the Green Party of England & Wales.</span></em></p>Ten years ago we witnessed one of the worst natural disasters in history, when a huge earthquake off the coast of Sumatra triggered a devastating tsunami which swept across the Indian Ocean. An estimated…Emily Heath, Senior Teaching Associate, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/357612014-12-23T19:19:58Z2014-12-23T19:19:58ZA huge fertility boom followed the Boxing Day tsunami<p>How does the death of a child affect parents’ subsequent fertility? On a population scale this has been difficult to answer, but it has fundamental implications for understanding population dynamics across the globe. It has been argued, for example, that investing in reducing child mortality will result in <a href="http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=5842&page=74">substantial reductions in fertility</a>. But unanticipated natural disasters provide an unusual, if tragic, opportunity to investigate this question.</p>
<p>The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was a horrifying disaster that killed around 250,000 people. Coastal areas of Aceh, on the northern tip of Indonesia, were hardest hit and <a href="http://www.jhsph.edu/research/centers-and-institutes/center-for-refugee-and-disaster-response/publications_tools/publications/2010/Tsunami%20related%20injury%20in%20Ache%20Province.pdf">roughly 5% of the population of the entire province</a> died. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67889/original/image-20141222-31560-109e522.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67889/original/image-20141222-31560-109e522.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67889/original/image-20141222-31560-109e522.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67889/original/image-20141222-31560-109e522.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67889/original/image-20141222-31560-109e522.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67889/original/image-20141222-31560-109e522.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67889/original/image-20141222-31560-109e522.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67889/original/image-20141222-31560-109e522.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Tsunami-related mortality in Aceh, Indonesia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Elizabeth Frankenberg and Duncan Thomas</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The figure above illustrates the mortality impact of the tsunami. Death rates in 2005 in areas that were not directly affected by the tsunami are in blue. The devastation of the tsunami is depicted in red, which reflects mortality in heavily damaged areas. In these communities, 30% of the population perished and rates reached 80% in some of the worst-hit communities. </p>
<h2>Lost children</h2>
<p>Death rates were <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02446.x/abstract">highest among young children</a>, older adults, and women in their prime (aged 25 to 45-years-old). Of course, strength and ability to swim were key for survival but, it turns out, household composition also mattered. Stronger members helped the more vulnerable. The more prime-age men there were in the household, for example, the more likely others were to have survived.</p>
<p>Sadly, many surviving parents lost children in the tsunami. Other parents, even those living in the same neighbourhoods, did not. Using data from the <a href="https://ipl.econ.duke.edu/dthomas/research.html">Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery</a> (STAR) project, we examined how parents’ fertility decisions were affected by the death of a child in the tsunami. </p>
<p>The tsunami was completely unanticipated – there had not been a tsunami on mainland Indonesia for more than 500 years. The destruction and loss of life varied from one community to another because of different landscapes that affected the force with which the waves struck the shore. </p>
<p>The STAR baseline survey, which was conducted before the tsunami, includes both communities that were later heavily damaged and other comparable but relatively undamaged communities. The study is representative of the population living along the coast of Aceh before the tsunami and followed more than 30,000 survivors annually for five years after.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w20448">our research</a>, we estimated that in communities where the tsunami cost lives, fertility increased by almost three-quarters of a child in the five years afterwards. This is a huge impact and you can see the effects today, with more babies and young children in the region relative to teenagers and older adults.</p>
<h2>Fertility boom</h2>
<p>Who bore these children? Mothers who lost children in the tsunami were much more likely to have a child within five years of the disaster than mothers whose children survived. Adjusting for age, education and parity, and comparing women who were living in the same community at the time of the tsunami, the difference is 37%. But these new births account for only about 13% of the increase in total fertility. </p>
<p>Who else had children? We looked at women who had not had any children before the tsunami, most of whom were young. Among childless women, those who at the time of the tsunami were living in communities where the disaster took lives were more likely to have children in the five years after the disaster than similar women in communities where there weren’t deaths from the disaster. The fertility gap was larger the higher the tsunami-related mortality was in the community. Those women in affected areas shifted their child-bearing to an earlier age, and this accounts for the majority of the overall increase in fertility.</p>
<h2>Rebuilding</h2>
<p>So, the post-tsunami fertility boom was driven not only by parents who lost a child but also by others in the devastated communities who contributed to rebuilding after the devastating disaster. </p>
<p>This is apparent across Aceh where there has been tremendous rebuilding of homes and livelihoods. Families responded in all sorts of ways. Men who lost their wives and children re-married and started new families. Extended families and communities <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w19357">rallied to help young children</a> who were orphaned by the tsunami. How will all this work out over the longer-term? We will find out as we continue to follow the lives of the STAR respondents.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35761/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Frankenberg receives funding from the National Institutes of Health. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duncan Thomas receives funding from the National Institutes of Health. He directs the Development Economics program at the National Bureau of Economic Research and is a member of the board of the Bureau for Research in the Economic Analysis of Development.</span></em></p>How does the death of a child affect parents’ subsequent fertility? On a population scale this has been difficult to answer, but it has fundamental implications for understanding population dynamics across…Elizabeth Frankenberg, Professor, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke UniversityDuncan Thomas, Norb F. Schaefer Professor of International Studies, Duke UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.