tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/campbell-newman-2501/articlesCampbell Newman – The Conversation2017-11-29T19:11:09Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/881652017-11-29T19:11:09Z2017-11-29T19:11:09ZQueensland Liberals and Nationals have long had an uneasy cohabitation, and now should consider divorce<p>There can be no doubt that in matters political Queensland is different from the rest of Australia. </p>
<p>It is the only state that has a <a href="https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/voters-and-voting/voting-system">single house of parliament</a>. It is the only state that has a <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au">single council</a> for its capital city. It is the only state in which the Country (and later National) Party has been the dominant force on the non-Labor side of politics and, for a time in the 1980s, held government in its own right.</p>
<p>The rhythm of Queensland politics has been for one party to hold power for long stretches of time. Labor was in government from 1932 to 1957, losing government that year as the <a href="https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:356593">Labor Party split</a>. The Country Party held power, first in coalition with the Liberals and then in its own right, from 1957 to 1989. Subsequently, Labor was in office, except for a short time in 1996, from 1989 to 2012.</p>
<p>Queensland voters, at least in recent times, also seem to be more volatile in their voting habits, perhaps more resembling Canada than other parts of Australia. In Sydney, for example, there are electorates that are so rusted on to a political party that electing a member from another party is unthinkable.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-result-while-decided-on-state-issues-adds-to-turnbulls-burdens-88135">Queensland result, while decided on state issues, adds to Turnbull's burdens</a>
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<p>This does not appear to be the case in Queensland, including Brisbane. In 2012, the Liberal National Party (LNP), led by Campbell Newman, won a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N0tg8rcXW4">stunning victory</a>, claiming 44 seats with swings as high as 21%. In other states, many of these seats would be rusted-on Labor. </p>
<p>Given Queensland’s electoral history, one would have expected that the 2012 election would be the prelude to an extended term of LNP government. Yet, in 2015, the LNP <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1516/QldElect">lost 34 seats and government</a>. As an example, the seat of Ipswich, which had swung some 20% to the LNP in 2012, had almost an exact same swing to Labor in 2015.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most extraordinary thing about the 2017 election has been the way in which Brisbane has become almost exclusively Labor. The LNP holds fewer than half-a-dozen seats. While this may be in part a consequence of how <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/queensland-election/queensland-election-one-nation-preference-game-cost-lnp-all-hope/news-story/1ea49b6fae3b1efb5606274790c45d1f">One Nation allocated its preferences</a>, this only confirms the weakness of the LNP in Brisbane.</p>
<h2>The birth of the LNP</h2>
<p>The Queensland LNP came into being in 2008 with the marriage of the Queensland divisions of the National Party and the Liberal Party. This was at a time when the non-Labor side of politics had, except for a short period mentioned above, been out of power for nearly 20 years. </p>
<p>Although the Nationals were clearly the senior partner, the president of the new party acquired full voting rights with the federal Liberals. Even more curious is the fact that those from the “Liberal” side of the party have tended to dominate the leadership.</p>
<p>In other states, where the Liberals are the senior party, as at the Commonwealth level, the two parties have favoured coalition rather than amalgamation (cohabitation rather than marriage). </p>
<p>That the Nationals and the Liberals should have come together at all seems in some ways astonishing, given the cavalier way in which <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Sir-Joh-was-loathed-and-loved/2005/04/23/1114152360448.html">Joh Bjelke-Petersen</a> treated the Liberals back in the 1980s. </p>
<p>In days gone by, the Queensland Liberals were quite unlike other Liberal parties in Australia. Being always the junior member of the partnership meant that the party was much more of a “liberal” party, based in urban Brisbane. </p>
<p>Populism and conservatism were the property of the National Party. It is worth recalling that it was the Liberal Party that <a href="http://www.onenation.com.au/history">disendorsed</a> Pauline Hanson as a candidate in the 1996 election.</p>
<p>It may have made good sense in electoral terms for the National Party and the Liberal Party to amalgamate in 2008. It appears to have delivered in 2012. But it has failed to deliver a second time. I think that there are some good reasons for this.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-election-one-nation-dominates-twitter-debate-in-the-final-weeks-88024">Queensland election: One Nation dominates Twitter debate in the final weeks</a>
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<p>The amalgamation followed the logic that a unified anti-Labor Party would be more likely to defeat Labor. However, this decision was made at a time when a political reconfiguration was occurring in which the old right-left, business-unions divisions were becoming less important. </p>
<p>In its place has been the emergence of a new politics based around more symbolic matters and in which progressives increasingly find themselves at odds with conservatives on a whole range of matters, from the environment to same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>The LNP tethered together progressives and conservatives. In Newman it had a leader who was a good liberal reformer, rather reminiscent of Nick Greiner in New South Wales. Perhaps Newman should have studied what happened to Greiner, who barely scraped back into power in the <a href="http://elections.uwa.edu.au/elecdetail.lasso?keyvalue=763">1991 NSW election</a>.</p>
<p>Moreover, populism has never really gone away in Queensland. Labor Premier <a href="http://www.mrcf.com.au/company/person/hon-peter-beattie">Peter Beattie</a> had a touch of Joh about him.</p>
<h2>Uneasy bedfellows</h2>
<p>What I am suggesting is that the creation of the LNP was backward- rather than forward-looking. In a state in which populism is an established tradition, it was always going to be difficult to get the conservative and progressive horses to run together in the same direction. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bobkatter.com.au">Bob Katter</a> and Hanson have been beneficiaries of the inability of the LNP to express its inner populism. Remember that John Howard neutralised Hanson by stealing her thunder. Cohabitation was a hindrance to liberals and conservatives alike.</p>
<p>But the primary beneficiary of this state of affairs has been the Labor Party. I think it can be argued that the too rigid nature of the LNP has led to a fracturing of the non-Labor side of politics. If the Liberals and Nationals had simply continued to cohabit they may have been able to have the flexibility required for electoral success.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Melleuish receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Academic Advisory Board of the Menzies Research Centre.</span></em></p>For the Queensland LNP, the divisions between the progressive and conservative forces within the party may hamper its political prospects.Gregory Melleuish, Professor, School of Humanities and Social Inquiry, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/873152017-11-16T05:21:40Z2017-11-16T05:21:40ZFactCheck: has Queensland Labor created ‘more than four times’ as many jobs as the LNP?<blockquote>
<p>… we have created 122,500 jobs – more than four times the number of jobs created under the Newman-Nicholls government. <strong>– Queensland Labor <a href="https://www.queenslandlabor.org/media/20213/alpq_skilling_queenslanders_for_work_policy_document_final_.pdf">Work Ready Queensland</a> policy document, November 2, 2017.</strong></p>
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<p>With unemployment in Queensland running above the national average – more than double the national average in some parts of the state – promises and claims about jobs growth are front and centre of the Labor Party campaign. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.queenslandlabor.org/media/20213/alpq_skilling_queenslanders_for_work_policy_document_final_.pdf">policy document</a> released at the start of the election campaign, Queensland Labor said it had “created 122,500 jobs – more than four times the number of jobs created under the Newman-Nicholls government”.</p>
<p>Are those numbers correct? And can Labor fairly claim to have “created” those jobs?</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>When asked for sources to support the statement, a spokesperson for Annastacia Palaszczuk pointed The Conversation to Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Sep%202017?OpenDocument">trend data</a> for total employed persons from March 2012 to September 2017.</p>
<p>In summary, the spokesperson said that between March 2012 (when Campbell Newman was elected) and January 2015 (when Palaszczuk was elected), job numbers rose by 29,000. This was compared to an increase of 122,500 jobs between January 2015 and September 2017.</p>
<p>The spokesperson noted that 29,000 jobs is “less than one-quarter of 122,500”.</p>
<p>But calculating those numbers is not that simple.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Queensland Labor said it had “created 122,500 jobs – more than four times the number of jobs created under the Newman-Nicholls government”.</p>
<p>There is no <em>definitive</em> way to calculate this number. On some measures, the statement is correct. On other measures, it’s an overstatement.</p>
<p>Job numbers increased by somewhere between 117,380 and 122,500 during the Palaszczuk government’s term. That’s between 3.4 and 4.2 times the jobs growth under the Newman government.</p>
<p>Whichever way you look at it, it’s fair to say that employment increased significantly more during the Palaszczuk government’s term than the Newman government’s.</p>
<p>Can Labor claim to have “created” those jobs?</p>
<p>No, that’s not entirely fair. State government policy is only one of many factors that determine employment dynamics. Changes in employment levels are never solely due to the efforts of any one government.</p>
<h2>Did Labor ‘create’ 122,500 jobs under Palaszczuk?</h2>
<p>We can see how many jobs have been created in Queensland in recent years by looking at <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Sep%202017?OpenDocument">Australian Bureau of Statistics labour force data</a>.</p>
<p>The data show that more jobs were created under the Labor government led by Annastacia Palaszczuk than under the Liberal National Party (LNP) government led by Campbell Newman (and in which Tim Nicholls was treasurer).</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/r1FX8/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="500"></iframe>
<p>Exactly how many more jobs were created? Well, that’s not quite as simple to calculate as you might think. </p>
<p>Australian Bureau of Statistics labour force data are available on a monthly basis. To see how employment levels have changed, we look at employment figures in the month <em>before</em> the start of a government, and in the last month of that government.</p>
<p>Newman took office on March 26, 2012. So, March 2012 can be considered the last month before the beginning of the Newman LNP government.</p>
<p>But it’s slightly trickier to match the monthly data against the point when the Newman government ended and the Palaszczuk government began. That’s because we’re working with monthly data, and Palaszczuk took office in the middle of a month – on February 14, 2015.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk’s office told The Conversation they considered January 2015 as the end of the Newman government. That’s consistent with the fact that the election was held on January 31, 2015.</p>
<p>But it also means all the jobs created in the two weeks in February 2015 before Palaszczuk took office are attributed to the Labor government. </p>
<p>So, in the context of looking at monthly employment data, should we could consider February 2015, or January 2015, to be the last month before the beginning of the Palaszczuk government?</p>
<p>In my view, there are arguments for and against both of these options. So I’m going to show you the numbers based on three scenarios:</p>
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<li><p>we attribute jobs growth in February 2015 to the LNP government;</p></li>
<li><p>we attribute jobs growth in February 2015 to the Labor government; and</p></li>
<li><p>we attribute 50% of the jobs growth to the LNP government, and 50% to Labor.</p></li>
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<p>The numbers presented are until September 2017.</p>
<p>The table shows the outcome of each scenario and the total change in employment. That’s the difference in the total number of people employed at the end and start of the government. </p>
<p><iframe id="oMtDq" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oMtDq/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Scenario #1: Labor’s claim is incorrect</h2>
<p>If we attribute the jobs growth for February 2015 to the LNP, then Labor’s claim is incorrect. Using this measure, total employment increased by 117,380 under the Palaszczuk government, compared to 34,170 under the Newman government.</p>
<p>That means that 3.4 more times jobs were created under Labor than the LNP – not “more than four times”.</p>
<h2>Scenario #2: Labor’s claim is verified</h2>
<p>If we attribute the jobs growth for February 2015 to Labor, then the party’s statement is verified: total employment increased by 122,550 under the Palaszczuk government, compared to an increase of 28,990 jobs under the Newman government. </p>
<p>In this scenario, 4.2 more times jobs were created under Labor than LNP – so it is “more than four times”, as Queensland Labor said.</p>
<h2>Scenario #3: Labor’s claim is a slight overstatement</h2>
<p>If we split the difference – with half of February 2015 allocated to each government – then the data show an increase of 119,960 jobs under the Palaszczuk government, compared to an increase of 31,580 jobs under the Newman government. </p>
<p>That amounts to 3.8 times more jobs under Palaszczuk – below Labor’s original “more than four times” claim, albeit by an economically small margin.</p>
<p>So, what’s the bottom line? </p>
<p>On some measures, the statement is numerically correct. On others, it is a slight overstatement. Either way you look at it, it’s fair to say that employment increased significantly more during the term of the Palaszczuk government.</p>
<h2>Can Queensland Labor claim to have ‘created’ these jobs?</h2>
<p>No, that’s not entirely fair. State government policy is only one of many factors that determine employment dynamics in a given period of time. Changes in employment levels are never solely due to the efforts of any one government.</p>
<p>Other factors that influence employment levels include (and are certainly not limited to): </p>
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<li><p>federal policies;</p></li>
<li><p>economic conditions in trading partner countries;</p></li>
<li><p>changes in the international price of commodities; and </p></li>
<li><p>variations in the level of the interest rate and/or the exchange rate.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>It is difficult to establish with certainty the relative contribution to employment growth of each of these factors. <strong>– Fabrizio Carmignani</strong></p>
<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>This is a sound and balanced FactCheck. </p>
<p>Whichever approach to measurement is used, the verdict – that total Queensland employment has grown more rapidly under Labor than under the Liberal National Party – is correct.</p>
<p>I agree with the author that there is some difficulty in knowing precisely when to “start the clock” on the Queensland Labor government. </p>
<p>In my view, treating the whole month of February 2015 as part of Labor’s term (as Queensland Labor did in its policy document) is the least convincing approach, as Labor did not begin to govern until the second half of that month. But I commend the author’s thoroughness in showing the numerical consequences of the different approaches in their three scenarios.</p>
<p>The author is correct in pointing out that no government can claim sole responsibility for any change in employment during its term. The political cycle rarely aligns with the economic cycle. I am sceptical about whether any government deserves the full credit – or blame – for economic developments that happen on its watch.</p>
<p>This is especially true of state governments, which are often at the mercy of larger forces. The author rightly mentions the wide array of national and international factors that reach far beyond Queensland’s borders. <strong>– Joshua Healy</strong></p>
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<p><strong>The Conversation is fact-checking the Queensland election. If you see a ‘fact’ you’d like checked, let us know by sending a note via <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>, <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> or <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a>. The Conversation <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversation-is-fact-checking-the-queensland-election-and-we-want-to-hear-from-you-86779">thanks James Cook University</a> for its support.</strong></p>
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<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit is the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87315/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the piecewise linear continuous model and its macroeconomic applications.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Josh Healy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queensland Labor claimed it has ‘created 122,500 jobs – more than four times the number of jobs created under the Newman-Nicholls government’. Is that right? We asked the experts.Fabrizio Carmignani, Professor, Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/871932017-11-09T09:39:30Z2017-11-09T09:39:30ZPolitics podcast: swinging into the Sunshine State’s election<p>The pundits are reluctant to place bets on who will win Queensland’s November 25 election. Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls both carry a good deal of baggage.</p>
<p>A lot of attention is focused on Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which has been polling strongly and might end up holding the balance of power in the new parliament.</p>
<p>The Adani coal mine project has been centre-stage early in the campaign, with the Labor government saying it would veto any financing from the federal Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility for the venture’s rail line.</p>
<p>During two days in Brisbane, Michelle Grattan spoke to Griffith University political scientist Anne Tiernan, Deputy Premier Jackie Trad, Shadow Treasurer Scott Emerson, Queensland One Nation leader Steve Dickson, and The Courier-Mail’s national affairs editor Dennis Atkins.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The pundits are reluctant to place bets on who will win Queensland's November 25 election.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/802872017-06-29T12:17:37Z2017-06-29T12:17:37ZGrattan on Friday: It’s a year since Turnbull won his first election, but what about a second?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176230/original/file-20170629-2697-hm4qyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malcolm Turnbull broke out his leather jacket this week and tried to shrug off the tensions consuming his party.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jennifer Rajca/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>An admission. When I heard people raising the “transaction costs” after Tony Abbott was deposed by Malcolm Turnbull, I thought they were exaggerating. Surely these couldn’t be too high, given the relative popularity levels of the two.</p>
<p>Nearly two years on, when the Coalition is lagging badly in the polls and many Liberals – albeit way out from an election – already see opposition looming, those costs are there in spades, in the form of a deeply vengeful Abbott, bent on wrecking his successor; a party at war internally, and speculation being fanned about whether its leader will last to the election.</p>
<p>It’s just a year on Sunday since Turnbull narrowly won the election, but the fear of defeat is strong.</p>
<p>Former Queensland premier Campbell Newman, who spectacularly lost office in one term from a massive majority, has a credibility problem in commenting on what leaders should do. Nevertheless, his call this week for Turnbull to stand down is just another unhelpful piece of flotsam for the Liberals.</p>
<p>“He can’t be deposed – we can’t have another execution,” Newman said. But Turnbull was “dividing the Liberal Party”, what he’d tried wasn’t working, and he should “do the right thing” and quit.</p>
<p>Like most other people in the community, politicians are more impatient than they used to be. So parties are even less willing than once to contemplate losing office.</p>
<p>A period out of power would be painful, no question. The Liberals would soul-search to define the identity of the party they wanted to go into the 2020s.</p>
<p>A new generation would take over, replacing top players of the last decade – Turnbull, Abbott and Julie Bishop. The Nationals might possibly break out of a coalition relationship with the Liberals.</p>
<p>For a Liberal Party that thinks office is its natural home, this would be like facing a nasty spell in hospital to repair severely broken bones. One comfort, perhaps, would be that the febrile nature of today’s politics means government is never too far away. Kevin Rudd won handsomely in 2007; Abbott almost became prime minister at the following election. Abbott swept into power in 2013; Turnbull nearly lost in 2016.</p>
<p>As this year ebbs away, Turnbull’s hold on the leadership will become more precarious if there is no lift in those relentless Newspolls.</p>
<p>But a problem for the party and an insurance for Turnbull is that of the possible alternatives – Bishop, Peter Dutton, Scott Morrison, a resurrected Abbott – there is no one who’d obviously do any better. And given that we may be talking about “saving the furniture”, like Rudd did in 2013, who would want to be the one to lead to a loss?</p>
<p>Just say Turnbull, facing a rout, did decide (much later) to do what Newman says he should do now. Who’d benefit by getting a poisoned chalice?</p>
<p>Bishop? To end a sparkling career by leading to a likely defeat?</p>
<p>Dutton? In recent times, especially since Morrison’s sheen disappeared, Dutton has been talked up as a future leader. But lose an election, perhaps in a landslide, and it would be hard to hang onto the leadership in opposition.</p>
<p>The same applies to Morrison, even if he could get the party room numbers.</p>
<p>That leaves Abbott. Peta Credlin, his confidant and former chief-of-staff, said this week he “actually doesn’t want the job of prime minister”. Unlikely as this seems, that assessment is corroborated by another source.</p>
<p>The thing about Abbott, however, is that he can take one view one day and the opposite the next. If there was half a chance to put on the boxing gloves, he wouldn’t care too much about facing defeat. He’d feel vindicated, and relish the fight.</p>
<p>Don’t lay any money on such a scenario. It’s just one of many long shots in an unfolding story.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Abbott is said to be in good spirits, as he’s been a centre of attention this week, with a speech articulating his broad agenda, followed by one calling for Australia to consider acquiring nuclear-powered submarines. </p>
<p>Once again, as is his wont, he went back on a position he took in government. “Not more robustly challenging the nuclear no-go mindset is probably the biggest regret I have from my time as PM,” he said.</p>
<p>The submarine speech saw him wading into the portfolio of Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne, who has had a nightmare week.</p>
<p>As the dust settles, one legacy question will be how much damage Pyne has done himself with his foolish boasting about the moderates’ power and the prospects for the earlier-than-expected delivery of same-sex marriage – comments which, when leaked, sparked such a damaging furore.</p>
<p>Pyne traditionally has had a heavy coating of teflon. His ministerial performance during this government has been lacklustre: in education, he failed to deliver his tertiary package; he was in and out of the innovation job in a flash, and the most talked-about feature of his period so far in his present post has been his covetous eye on the Defence job held by fellow moderate Marise Payne.</p>
<p>As he said in last Friday’s speech to the “Black Hand” moderates’ function, he’s always voted for Turnbull. But he managed to crack Abbott’s inner circle, before climbing on board with the Turnbull coup.</p>
<p>Pyne’s ambition is the deputy leadership – which would allow him to move into foreign affairs.</p>
<p>Before this week, he might have thought himself well placed, for example, to be deputy to Dutton in opposition. Now he has suffered a lot of reputational damage. But he has considerable powers of regeneration, and the thickest of skins. When some years ago he was featured in a Good Weekend profile with the cover asking “Is this the most annoying man in Australia?”, he was reportedly delighted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As this year ebbs away, Malcolm Turnbull’s hold on the leadership will become more precarious if there is no lift in those relentless Newspolls.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/548822016-02-21T19:04:05Z2016-02-21T19:04:05ZQueensland land clearing is undermining Australia’s environmental progress<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112086/original/image-20160219-21502-1qvber8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Land clearing rates in Queensland tripled since 2010. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Martin Taylor</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Land clearing has returned to Queensland in a big way. After we expressed concern that policy changes since 2012 would lead to <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-clearing-in-queensland-triples-after-policy-ping-pong-38279">a resurgence in clearing of native vegetation</a>, this outcome was confirmed by <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/land/vegetation/mapping/slats-reports/index.html#slats-most-recent-reports">government figures</a> released late last year. </p>
<p>It is now clear that land clearing is accelerating in Queensland. The new data confirm that 296,000 hectares of bushland was cleared in 2013-14 – three times as much as in 2008-09 – mainly for conversion to pastures. These losses do not include the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-16/land-clearing-soars-in-queensland-leaked-figures-show/6550622">well-publicised clearing</a> permitted by the government of nearly 900 square kilometres at two properties, Olive Vale and Strathmore, which commenced in 2015. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map showing the amount of habitat for threatened species cleared between 2012 and 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">WWF</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Alarmingly, the data show that clearing in catchments that drain onto the Great Barrier Reef increased dramatically, and constituted 35% of total clearing across Queensland in 2013-14. The loss of native vegetation cover in such regions is one of the major drivers of the <a href="http://coralreefs.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/ISRS-Briefing-Paper-3-Water-Quality.pdf">deteriorating water quality</a> in the reef’s lagoon, which threatens seagrass, coral reefs, and other marine ecosystems. </p>
<p>The increases in land clearing are across the board. They include losses of over 100,000 hectares of old-growth habitats, as well as the destruction of “high-value regrowth” – the advanced regeneration of endangered ecosystems.</p>
<p>These ecosystems have already been reduced to less than 10% of their original extent, and their recovery relies on allowing this regrowth to mature.</p>
<p>Alarmingly, our analysis of where the recent clearing has occurred reveals that even “of concern” and “endangered” remnant ecosystems are being lost at much higher rates now than before. </p>
<p>While this level of vegetation loss and damage continues apace, Australia’s environmental programs will fall well short of achieving their aims.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nutrient and sediment runoff, exacerbated by land clearing, is one of the major ongoing threats to the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Great Barrier Reef image from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Neutralising our environmental programs</h2>
<p>Land clearing affects all Australians, not just Queenslanders. Australia spends hundreds of millions of dollars each year trying to redress past environmental damage from land clearing. Tens of thousands of volunteers dedicate their time, money and land to the effort. </p>
<p>But despite undeniable local benefits of such programs, their contribution to national environmental goals is undone, sometimes many times over, by the damage being done in Queensland.</p>
<p>Take the federal government’s <a href="http://www.nrm.gov.au/national/20-million-trees">20 million trees program</a>. At a cost of A$50 million, it aims to replace 20 million trees by 2020 to redress some of the damage from past land clearing. </p>
<p>Yet just one year of increased land clearing in Queensland has already removed many more trees than will be painstakingly planted during the entire program.</p>
<p>The Australian government’s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund">Emissions Reduction Fund</a> (ERF) is paying billions of dollars to reduce carbon emissions from industry. But the carbon released from Queensland’s land clearing in 2012-2014 alone is estimated at 63 million tonnes, far more than was purchased under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-emissions-reduction-auction-results-at-a-glance-40728">first round of the ERF</a> (at a cost to taxpayers of A$660 million).</p>
<p>Species cannot recover if their habitat is being destroyed faster than it is being restored. But under <a href="http://www.nrm.gov.au/news-and-resources/resources/previous-programmes">Caring for our Country</a> and <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/cleanenergyfuture/biodiversity-fund/">Biodiversity Fund</a> grants, the extent of tree planting to restore habitat across Australia <a href="https://fieldcapture.ala.org.au/home/projectExplorer">reported</a> since 2013 is just over 42,000 hectares - an order of magnitude less than what was cleared in Queensland alone in just two years.</p>
<p>And it will be many decades before these new plantings will provide anything like the environmental benefits of mature native vegetation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Glossy black-cockatoos are one of the species threatened by Queensland land clearing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kookr/7885802968/in/photolist-d1QNu9-tCUBhF-pG5d37-C9mh3g-BPoXqM-xv3Um-pEBNo1-7RAJhf-paK37z-dMGY9e-nrV7pR-67ecZn-kR76on-9Q7XZi-pEMkeA-5XEsUG-5UJqbu-BCJohV-d1QNK7-y9z8yW-9zE6TB-9HJ4he-9HLUkd-5TnqzL-yyrwb8-7RAK6N-7RAKEL-jc1dHm-uBHRVa-dV8P7D-qm3X1Z-pcfhnD-3GCozP-bv2Cky-9HJ3ZB-dVeogN-5UE8YB-9zE8DT-5UE94c-52KaiK-uyYTsd-jwKumn-9zH1fm-5WYrzE-mTDWaY-4pEBoE-4pEBZm-H4kQy-7RxvEB-64aKEZ">David Cook/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Land clearing between 2012 and 2014 in Queensland is estimated to have wiped out <a href="http://www.wwf.org.au/?15660/More-than-40000-hectares-of-koala-habitat-cleared">more than 40,000 hectares</a> of koala habitat, as well as habitat for over 200 other threatened species. Clearing, along with drought (which is also <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL031524/full">made worse</a> by clearing), is the major cause of <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320715301130">an 50% decline in koalas of south-west and central Queensland since 1996</a>.</p>
<p>The loss of remnant habitat, especially from forests along waterways, means more habitat fragmentation. This is a further threat to many species of wildlife, and it <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-best-way-to-protect-us-from-climate-change-save-our-ecosystems-54110">hampers our ability to adapt</a> to a rapidly changing climate. </p>
<p>The federal government has committed hundreds of millions of dollars to <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/marine/gbr/publications/factsheet-reef-trust-science-evidence-base">improve reef water quality</a>. Yet ongoing land clearing in reef-draining catchments will reverse many of the gains these programs aim to achieve. Last year, Queensland’s <a href="https://www.qao.qld.gov.au/report-20:-2014-15">Auditor-General reported</a> that stronger legislation would be essential to reducing harmful catchment runoff to the Great Barrier Reef.</p>
<h2>Prevention is better than cure</h2>
<p>We live in an era of tightening carbon budgets, declining land-production capacity and rapidly deteriorating biodiversity, including in iconic places such as Great Barrier Reef. The evidence is clear that we cannot continue to degrade our environment without severe consequences.</p>
<p>It is far more efficient to prevent environmental damage than to try to reverse it later. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Koalas have declined 50% in Queensland over the past 15-20 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mikex/1383104344/in/photolist-37dLJC-nGYKLg-AhRFva-cGGD8E-cGGEcy-4mCmme-7QdPLC-AhRBGD-eFFCkZ-fib6eY-AUfkQo-7KjnbH-29wHBa-29wLG8-9rPvN-nRuP6r-nziXAu-nzick3-BfLKWX-jLaTD-duKh4z-ausHya-bqDXHb-ib19J-jq3y3-fsPLLr-fsRon9-a3Gae-fsPLPD-fsZ6M7-ft4PGL-ft4PMW-fsZ6KC-ft4PDw-fsZ6Dq-ft4PKo-fsZ6GA-fsPLHn-fsZ6Jf-ft4PyS-ft4PRb-fsZ6EA-bqDSfJ-bDyLJ8-8J9fKM-k8bc1P-CNtjfK-5gGq3q-BQc2PK-Cksj9m">Mike Locke/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, the cost of stabilising river-banks following deforestation can range from <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP15849">A$16,000 to A$5 million per kilometre</a>. Natural ecosystems <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014000685">contribute enormously</a> to the economy in ways that are often unrecognised. </p>
<p>We are running up a large environmental debt that will eventually have to be paid by all Australians, one way or another.</p>
<p>And some damage, like the loss of a species, is irreversible.</p>
<p>Previous native vegetation laws had <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-clearing-in-queensland-triples-after-policy-ping-pong-38279">successfully reduced land clearing</a>, but were reversed in 2013 by the former Newman government. </p>
<p>The current Palaszczuk government in Queensland has <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queenslands-controversial-land-clearing-laws-to-be-overturned-20151128-gladle.html">repeated its election promise</a> to re-strengthen native vegetation protections. The amendment bill is due to be introduced to parliament within weeks. </p>
<p>But the minority government <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/parties-face-realities-of-hung-queensland-parliament-20150310-140hmu.html">relies on the votes of cross-benchers</a> to pass its legislation–so for now, the future of some of Australia’s most precious environmental assets remains uncertain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54882/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martine Maron receives funding from the Australian Research Council, New South Wales Environment Trust, and the National Environmental Science Program. She is a director of BirdLife Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Laurance receives funding from the Australian Research Council and other scientific and philanthropic organisations. He is the director of the Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science at James Cook University and founder and director of ALERT--the Alliance of Leading Environmental Researchers & Thinkers. He is presently on academic study leave at the European Community's Joint Research Centre in Italy.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bob Pressey receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. He is a scientific advisor to WWF-Australia and member of the North Queensland Conservation Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carla P. Catterall receives funding from the Australian Research Council and other nonprofit sources. Her research group investigates how changes to land and forest cover interact with wild plants and animals. She is a past president of the Ecological Society of Australia and has affiliation with various ecological, conservation, and ornithological societies. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clive McAlpine receives funding from The Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Possingham receives funding from The Australian Research Council, The Australian federal environment department and a variety of other sources through The University of Queensland. He has a 20% position at Imperial College London. He is affiliated with Bush Heritage Australia (Board of Directors) and The Wentworth Group (Founding Member). He provides pro bono advice to a wide variety of organisations. He is currently on an independent advisory panel assisting the state of NSW with their biodiversity legislation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Watson receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is the Director of Science and Research Initiative at the Wildlife Conservation Society. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Rhodes receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Queensland Government, the New South Wales Government and the Australian Government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerrie Wilson receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Environmental Science Program and philanthropic bodies. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Hockings receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the New South Wales Government, the International Union for the Conservation on Nature and various international organisations. </span></em></p>Land clearing in Queensland has tripled in the past five years.Martine Maron, Associate Professor of Environmental Management, The University of QueenslandBill Laurance, Distinguished Research Professor and Australian Laureate, James Cook UniversityBob Pressey, Professor and Program Leader, Conservation Planning, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook UniversityCarla P. Catterall, Professor in ecology and environment, Griffith UniversityClive McAlpine, Senior Research Fellow in Ecology, The University of QueenslandHugh Possingham, Director ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, The University of QueenslandJames Watson, Associate professor, The University of QueenslandJonathan Rhodes, Associate Professor, The University of QueenslandKerrie Wilson, Associate Professor and ARC Future Fellow, The University of QueenslandMarc Hockings, Professor of Environmental Management, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/527012016-02-17T03:04:40Z2016-02-17T03:04:40ZPalaszczuk’s first year in office: an unanticipated success<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107478/original/image-20160107-14955-18gnctc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Annastacia Palaszczuk's key priorities now revolve around diversifying Queensland’s economy and boosting foreign investment to create jobs.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dave Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Annastacia Palaszczuk has just completed the end of her first year as Queensland premier following Labor’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-01/queensland-election-2015-newman-to-remain-as-caretaker-premier/6060586">stunning election victory</a> over the Liberal National Party (LNP). </p>
<p>The LNP – and some commentators – identified Palaszczuk as an <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/good-weekend/annastacia-palaszczuk-queenslands-accidental-premier-20150402-1mdq2e.html">“accidental” premier</a>, a byproduct of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-voters-send-a-strong-message-to-eject-newman-37018">antagonistic reaction</a> to her predecessor, Campbell Newman.</p>
<p>But Palaszczuk and her frontbench team have thus far proved successful in <a href="http://www.tjryanfoundation.org.au/_dbase_upl/Qld_2014_Political_Battleground_with_Epilogue.pdf">tackling three key problems</a>: maintaining parliamentary stability, restoring relationships with the judiciary and police, and ending the perceived policy inertia in job creation linked in part to internal conflicts over environmental protection and in part to issues of managing debt without privatisation.</p>
<h2>An uncertain parliamentary majority</h2>
<p>Once Newman was removed, Palaszczuk’s opponents claimed she lacked any legitimate claim to the premiership because of the uncertainty of the outcome, especially when a court challenge <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/04/queensland-election-count-continues-in-ferny-grove-despite-likely-challenge">initially loomed</a> in one electorate, Ferny Grove. </p>
<p>Both sides conducted protracted negotiations with the key independent, Peter Wellington (who <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/peter-wellington-nominated-as-speaker-20150226-13qhaa.html">became</a> the parliamentary speaker), and the two members of the Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).</p>
<p>Palaszczuk soon needed to deal with crises sparked by the behaviour of two newly elected Labor MPs. This reflected poorly on the thoroughness of preselection processes. </p>
<p>First, North Queensland MP Billy Gordon’s failure to disclose his criminal history, and fresh allegations of domestic violence (he was later not charged), led to his <a href="https://theconversation.com/by-sacking-billy-gordon-palaszczuk-has-put-her-government-on-the-brink-39473">expulsion from the ALP</a> to sit as an independent.</p>
<p>Rick Williams <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/queensland-labor-mp-rick-williams-in-impropriety-scandal/news-story/24b070e970409003d80b6c9fbba03a57">faced allegations</a> of dubious business practices and allegations of sexual harassment. Then-police minister Jo-Ann Miller’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jun/18/queensland-police-minister-jo-ann-miller-cleared-by-corruption-watchdog">ill-judged involvement</a> in this case created further tension inside the ALP caucus.</p>
<p>KAP and Gordon combined on a few occasions to vote with the LNP – <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-25/mps-vow-block-queensland-government-lockout-liquor-laws/6883260">resisting restrictions</a> aimed at reducing late-night violence and promoting legislation aimed at <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-03/sugar-bill-passes-but-millers-vow-its-just-the-beginning/6996408">sugar industry re-regulation</a>. KAP sometimes inserted new items on the policy agenda which the ALP eventually adopted or modified, such as the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-06/queensland-parliament-supports-ethanol-mandate/6450450">mandating of ethanol</a>.</p>
<p>But, for the most part, ALP electoral commitments to a modest range of legislative changes were progressed. This included rescinding Newman-era restrictions on the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/palaszczuk-reverses-newmanera-queensland-building-union-laws/news-story/59d8250b250d1af6c8372a4751a87e0d">freedom of trade unions</a>.</p>
<h2>Relations with the judiciary</h2>
<p>The major issue Palaszczuk immediately faced was reconstituting an appropriate relationship with the judiciary and the independent anti-corruption body, the Crime and Corruption Commission (CCC), and its supervisory parliamentary committee. </p>
<p>The problem of dealing with Chief Justice Tim Carmody, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/history-of-unchecked-executive-haunts-queensland-in-judge-fight-28029">controversial</a> Newman appointee, took months to solve. It ended in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-01/queensland's-chief-justice-tim-carmody-resigns/6587422">his resignation</a>. </p>
<p>The appointment of Alan MacSporran to chair the CCC was made after much <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-30/alan-mcsporran-named-as-queensland-crime-and-corruption-chairman/6659232">point-scoring about processes</a>. MacSporran signalled his willingness to avoid the past era of politicisation and, if necessary, to ruffle police feathers in the process.</p>
<p>Feathers were <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/focus-on-bikies-allowed-other-criminals-to-prosper-inquiry-20151030-gkmtj6.html">duly ruffled</a> with the report of a commission of inquiry into organised crime, which included evaluating the impact of the Newman government’s controversial <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-revealing-facts-on-bikie-laws-and-crime-in-queensland-35892">anti-bikie laws</a>. </p>
<p>Commissioner Michael Byrne questioned the relative benefit of allocating police resources specifically for this purpose when there were other more substantial policing problems associated with areas such as drug production and distribution, organised sexual predators, domestic violence and fraud.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108103/original/image-20160114-10399-1oibh5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108103/original/image-20160114-10399-1oibh5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108103/original/image-20160114-10399-1oibh5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108103/original/image-20160114-10399-1oibh5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108103/original/image-20160114-10399-1oibh5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108103/original/image-20160114-10399-1oibh5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108103/original/image-20160114-10399-1oibh5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Palaszczuk government reviewed its predecessor’s controversial anti-bikie laws.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Jobs, infrastructure and the environment</h2>
<p>The new government also had to balance concerns about environmental protection against the imperative of creating new jobs to replace those being lost with the end of the mining boom.</p>
<p>This had regional and political dimensions. ALP seats in mining areas outside Queensland’s south-east corner and the Right faction inside the ALP wanted to press ahead with coal mining at almost any cost. But ALP seats in and around Brisbane and the Left faction were more sensitive to environmental issues, especially concerning the Great Barrier Reef, and feared loss of support to the Greens. </p>
<p>Decisions about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/greg-hunt-approves-adanis-carmichael-coal-mine-again-experts-respond-49227">Adani coal mine</a> in the Galilee Basin and the associated development of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dumping-abbot-point-dredge-spoil-on-land-wont-save-the-reef-38716">Abbot Point port</a> near Mackay became political litmus tests.</p>
<p>The other source of jobs was infrastructure spending, tourism projects like cruise terminals, casinos, football grounds and expanded housing projects. Here the constraint was mainly the problem of debt and the confidence of private sector investors. The threat of restricted availability of supplementary funding from the federal government, especially to support rapidly escalating health services costs, also imposed limits.</p>
<p>However, the obstruction and antagonism from the Abbott government gave way to a marginally more conciliatory attitude from Malcolm Turnbull. He embraced one of Palaszczuk’s signature policies – combating <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-boosts-domestic-violence-funding-but-aid-groups-say-more-needed-20150924-gju1we.html">domestic violence</a> – and indulged his own enthusiasm for public transport by supporting a <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/malcolm-turnbull-to-commit-95-million-to-gold-coast-light-rail-20151010-gk61su.html">light rail project</a> for the Gold Coast.</p>
<h2>Winning business confidence</h2>
<p>But some vocal elements within the local business community and the media felt more needed to be done. </p>
<p>One of the characteristics of the first Palaszczuk ministry was its proclivity for holding inquiries rather than making immediate decisions. This could be viewed positively as a commitment to evidence-based research rather than rushing to judgement. It could also be seen negatively as a delaying tactic to avoid the unpopularity of making hard decisions. Not surprisingly, the media tended to take the latter position.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-to-focus-on-innovation-and-the-economy-in-2016/news-story/5c2197fbb68a052c9272f7f41301e985">acknowledged these criticisms</a> by inference when she specified the need for renewed effort from her reshuffled cabinet. She echoed Turnbull’s commitment to innovation and recognising the need for “tough decisions”. Her key priorities now revolved around diversifying Queensland’s economy and boosting foreign investment to create jobs.</p>
<p>An <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/editorial-training-wheels-off-its-time-for-the-palaszczuk-government-to-deliver-results/news-story/fe1fa045327f72b7d2feeb2a6f89a840">editorial</a> in Brisbane’s Courier-Mail responded almost wistfully hoping for a Bjelke-Petersen renaissance: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>And while “infrastructure” is today the obligatory political buzzword, it’s not enough to produce a glossy infrastructure “plan”. Modern, rapidly transforming economies with fast-rising populations need that plan to translate into a concrete infrastructure “pipeline” of the type Queensland enjoyed many years ago.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Some of us old enough to remember shudder at the thought of such a renaissance and the regime within which it was embedded.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52701/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span> Roger Scott is an Emeritus Professor in the School of Political Science and International Studies at the University of Queensland. He has taught at six other universities, including a period as Dean of Arts at QUT and as Foundation Vice-Chancellor of the University of Canberra. He was Queensland Director-General of Education in the era of Wayne Goss. I have not received any direct funding support for this research. I serve in an honorary capacity as Executive Director of the T.J.Ryan Foundation which has accepted operational funding assistance from the ALP in Queensland and the Queensland Council of Unions.</span></em></p>The Palaszczuk government has been successful in maintaining parliamentary stability, restoring relationships with the judiciary and police, and ending the perceived policy inertia in job creation.Roger Scott, Emeritus Professor, School of Political Studies and International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/373732015-02-13T03:43:14Z2015-02-13T03:43:14ZLabor’s first test: putting integrity before politics in Queensland<p>It’s official: Labor is set to lead a minority government in Queensland, with the electoral commission <a href="http://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2015/results/summary.html">finally declaring the results</a> of the tight election, almost a fortnight after the January 31 poll.</p>
<p>But will the new government’s swag of integrity and accountability commitments translate into a coherent strategy for repairing trust in government? And do new Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and the Liberal National Party’s Lawrence Springborg have what it takes as leaders to put their state’s interests ahead of party politics?</p>
<h2>A vote for change</h2>
<p>Just when the rest of Australia thought Queensland was ready to slip back to infamous <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/opinion-tony-fitzgeralds-warnings-about-accountability-swayed-poll-result/story-fnrab879-1227211088254">pre-Fitzgerald</a> standards of public integrity, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-but-lnp-refuses-to-concede-37329">dramatic state election result</a> has shown the state continues to come of age. </p>
<p>During the election campaign, Labor promised to <a href="http://annastacia.com.au/labor-commits-to-restore-queenslands-integrity-and-accountability/">restore integrity and accountability</a> in government, including:</p>
<ul>
<li>Committing to the <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/accountability-push-ahead-queensland-poll">Fitzgerald Principles</a> for good governance.</li>
<li>Reforming political donations rules, including restoring a lower $1000 disclosure threshold.</li>
<li>Holding an inquiry by Queensland’s Crime and Corruption Commission (CCC) into the “links, if any, between donations to political parties and the awarding of tenders, contracts and approvals”.</li>
<li>Upgrading and advertising the chairmanship of the CCC, held on an “acting basis” by former bureaucrat Dr Ken Levy in what Labor brands an “abuse” of the position.</li>
</ul>
<p>Since then, the Labor leader has made <a href="http://media.apnarm.net.au/116.8/img/media/pdf/letter_to_nicklin-r1gauqikyana7hahmj2.pdf">four pages of promises</a> to earn the crucial support of independent MP <a href="http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/wellington-will-back-labor-if-leader-stays-same/2534379/">Peter Wellington</a>, including new commitments such as developing real-time, online electoral donation disclosure – a first for Australia.</p>
<p>On February 9, Labor’s law and justice spokesperson, Yvette D'Ath, spoke at the <a href="http://www.accountabilityconferenceqld.com/">Accountability and the Law</a> conference in Brisbane. She pledged again to restore the corruption prevention function of the QCCC and to revisit rules requiring statutory declarations for many corruption allegations, both part of controversial corruption reforms <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/it-pro/will-queensland-corruption-reforms-pervert-the-course-of-history-20140506-zr5pv.html/">pushed through in 2014</a> by the Liberal National government.</p>
<p>D'Ath was also spot on when observing that citizens want political parties to be on a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/09/queenland-mine-approval-should-have-been-scrutinised-says-former-icac-chief">“unity ticket”</a> when it comes to accountability.</p>
<p>Here lies the first and biggest challenge for the new Labor government: how is it going to lead all parties, including its LNP opponents, to restore Queensland’s once famous but now battered public integrity system?</p>
<h2>Breaking the ‘winner takes all’ cycle</h2>
<p>The problem with at least two of Labor’s key commitments is they make it hard to escape what former Courier-Mail editor David Fagan and former corruption inquiry chief <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7u3V-iSsuZE">Tony Fitzgerald</a> call the <a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslanders-deserve-a-government-they-can-trust-37025">“winner takes all”</a> approach to government, which got Queensland to its present low point.</p>
<p>As Fitzgerald rightly pointed out, that return to Queensland’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4170096.htm">“old-style politics”</a> actually began under Labor’s Beattie and Bligh administrations, before getting even worse under Campbell Newman and the LNP. So this is a bipartisan problem, urgently needing a bipartisan solution.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, Labor’s promised donations inquiry comes with clear <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-reviewing-lnp-donations-tops-labor-list-20150210-13b70k.html">partisan objectives and impacts</a>, since it is only the Liberal National Party in the spotlight. It’s much like the Abbott government’s use of royal commissions into union corruption and home insulation to try to wreak political damage on its predecessor, as much as to sort out actual problems.</p>
<p>And while replacing the QCCC’s acting chairman, Dr Levy, with a new “independent” appointment is one part of rebuilding a credible anti-corruption agency, it’s clearly not the whole task, and carries similar risks.</p>
<p>Amid the temptation of political point-scoring, we need to stop and ask how the Queensland LNP allowed itself to slide into the position of being demonised – mostly rightly, but also partly wrongly – as opponents and eroders of political integrity.</p>
<p>Until Newman, Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie and other key figures became dominant in the last three years, the LNP had long supported the fundamentals of Queensland’s integrity system. Back in 1989, the Liberal and National coalition initiated and signed on to implementation of the <a href="http://www.ccc.qld.gov.au/about-the-ccc/the-fitzgerald-inquiry">Fitzgerald inquiry</a> in 1989. The conservatives also played a pivotal role in reforms like the creation of Queensland’s parliamentary and executive Integrity Commissioner in the 1990s, and helped champion whistleblowers and strengthen the 2010 Public Interest Disclosure Act, in ways that would not have occurred under Labor alone.</p>
<p>Labor’s botched attempt to make integrity a 2012 election issue was a crucial turning point for the state. Before the election, Anna Bligh’s government <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-17/bligh-unflinching-on-newman-corruption-allegations/3895708">referred aspirant premier Newman</a> and his family to the then Crime and Misconduct Commission. Newman <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/state-election-2012/cmc-clears-campbell-newman-20120316-1vagj.html">was cleared</a>, but Labor’s attempted politicisation of the CMC was a key reason for the <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/enoughs-enough-newman-flags-cmc-changes-20121001-26us9.html">over-reaction</a> against it and other integrity institutions once the LNP came to power.</p>
<h2>A political shopping list, or a plan?</h2>
<p>Since 2012, debate over the reform of the CMC (now <a href="http://www.ccc.qld.gov.au/">CCC</a>) has also shown the risk of Labor putting too much effort into “playing the man” (in the form of Dr Levy) as a way of elevating issues in public debate, at the expense of the issues themselves.</p>
<p>This is the second set of lessons of the last three years. While Labor’s commitments include many of the issues that need to be revisited to repair the damage, its pledges don’t yet add up to a comprehensive strategy. To restore public trust in good government, Labor must go beyond simply turning back the clock to how things were before the LNP was elected three years ago.</p>
<p>Sorting out the CCC chairmanship and governance, restoring corruption prevention and independent research are all vital.</p>
<p>But we have to remember the former CMC was overdue for a serious review, if not shake-up. Many of the questions about whether its efforts were well-targeted were worthwhile to ask - even if the answers suggested by the LNP’s review panel, former High Court justice Ian Callinan and Professor Nicholas Aroney, were mostly wrong, and most of the government’s responses worse still.</p>
<p>Some crucial reforms, like the statutory declaration barrier to corruption complaints, were substantially altered or abandoned by the LNP in 2014, due to the public and internal backlash. So sorting what to keep and what to change will require a sensible, more sophisticated and better-informed process.</p>
<p>Missing from Labor’s list of proposed reforms, so far, is revisiting the new, narrowed definition of “corrupt conduct”. Is this part of its plan? It needs to be, because it defines what the CCC and anyone else can do, as well as being part of a crucial national debate, given parallel dilemmas in states like <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/andrews-government-gives-more-powers-to-corruption-busters-revamps-public-service-20150131-132ph5.html">Victoria</a>, and even bigger questions <a href="http://transparency.org.au/index.php/current-news/australia-slips-from-the-list-of-top-10-clean-countries-cpi-2014/">federally</a>.</p>
<p>This also means we need to take stock of the roles that other integrity agencies play – especially the Ombudsman, with its responsibility to facilitate and protect whistleblowers, and the Public Service Commission, now overseeing the management of a lot of the misconduct that used to be covered by the CCC’s predecessor.</p>
<p>And while Labor’s promised <a href="http://media.apnarm.net.au/116.8/img/media/pdf/letter_to_nicklin-r1gauqikyana7hahmj2.pdf">review of organised crime laws</a> is also necessary, are we going to address the fundamental conflict involved in having the CCC as both a crime-fighting and anti-corruption body - especially when crime-fighting is so much more politically fashionable?</p>
<h2>The challenge for Labor and the LNP</h2>
<p>Now is the time for systematic review and rebuilding. And what happens next will be a vital test not just for the new government, but the whole parliament, including for the LNP opposition.</p>
<p>Queensland’s integrity and accountability agencies deserve better than being kicked around as a party-political football.</p>
<p>Fortunately, we know it is possible to overcome those old party-political divisions for the sake of the state, because it’s happened before. In the 1990s, the building of Queensland’s modern integrity system helped lead national and international debate. So in the search for new and better solutions, the time is ripe for Queensland once again to lead the way.</p>
<p>In her <a href="http://media.apnarm.net.au/116.8/img/media/pdf/letter_to_nicklin-r1gauqikyana7hahmj2.pdf">letter to independent Peter Wellington</a>, Annastacia Palaszczuk closed with the promise not only to “restore integrity and accountability”, but to forge a path of “consultation and consensus, rather than the division of the past three years”.</p>
<p>That’s a tall order, given how entrenched the “winner takes all” mentality has become under successive Labor and LNP governments. But Queenslanders <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/opinion-tony-fitzgeralds-warnings-about-accountability-swayed-poll-result/story-fnrab879-1227211088254">made it clear</a> at this election that they want change. It’s now up to Premier Palaszczuk and the Opposition Leader to show their parties got the message.</p>
<p><em>* Editor’s note: you can find A J Brown’s presentation to the Accountability and the Law conference <a href="http://www.accountabilityconferenceqld.com/">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>A J Brown has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council, Queensland Crime & Misconduct Commission, Queensland Ombudsman and Queensland Public Service Commission (among many others) for research projects on issues covered by this article. He is also affiliated with Transparency International Australia which advocates on these issues.</span></em></p>It’s official: Labor is set to lead a minority government in Queensland, with the electoral commission finally declaring the results of the tight election, almost a fortnight after the January 31 poll…A J Brown, Professor of Public Policy & Law, Centre for Governance & Public Policy, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/372102015-02-05T06:59:35Z2015-02-05T06:59:35ZThe Newman government still runs Queensland, so what can it do?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71163/original/image-20150205-28608-1gyisyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While Queenslanders watch and wait for a state election result, the quiet business of government continues.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamescridland/3503959960/in/photolist-uKepV-z8C7v-6kCHdL-79oREq-Kfj2v-67vc1K-dBDrod-z8CXp-grCCJL-nXiRz6-qbUrn-dzSpZt-37hAq-4nyYE-9J1mkt-5uvkzA-5uvjYE-ccxXW1-ccxYij-bVbGYz-ccxYBQ-z8BPb-bVbHh6-6SKfYs-3BGUb-uZeVG-8oTSE7-8SFkvr-pLC5pF-dByf7T-a7Wgy7-z8BVS-z8C45-z8C1F-z8BYs-z8BWz-z8C3p-z8C6g-z8CRj-z8CQq-z8BVe-z8BTW-z8CNL-z8CbZ-z8CPf-z8CYS-z8Cht-z8CdU-z8CTM-z8CVR">Flickr/James Cridland</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queenslanders won’t know until <a href="http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/election-stalemate-expected-until-next-week/2532546/">at least next week</a> who will lead the next state government, despite Labor winning the crucial support of an independent MP.</p>
<p>That means Campbell Newman will remain premier and in charge of a caretaker Liberal National government for some time.</p>
<p>So how close are we to seeing an election result? What do a caretaker premier and government actually do in the meantime? And what happened 20 years ago, when Queensland had a similarly tight election and there was a court challenge over a seat that got the Goss government back into power?</p>
<h2>Which party is closest to forming government?</h2>
<p>On Thursday, independent MP <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-05/peter-wellington-announces-support-for-labor-in-queensland/6072282">Peter Wellington</a> said he would <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PeterWellingtonMp/posts/821636271242247">support Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk</a> to become the next premier of Queensland if – as appears likely – his vote was needed for the ALP to form a minority government. Wellington said his decision was based on wanting to give Queensland <a href="http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/wellington-will-back-labor-if-leader-stays-same/2534379/">certainty</a>, which only Labor was offering. The LNP won’t elect a leader to replace Newman, who lost his seat, <a href="https://twitter.com/theqldpremier/status/563080073528758272">until Saturday</a>.</p>
<p>The Sunshine Coast independent said that while he respected Lawrence Springborg, who is officially leading the LNP’s negotiations to win back government, his efforts were being <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/queensland-election-2015-katters-australian-party-undecided/story-fnr8rfrw-1227208759423">undermined by other MPs</a> “running around trying to … destabilise Lawrence’s attempts”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"563136012923072512"}"></div></p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"563136369229180928"}"></div></p>
<p>Wellington’s declaration came shortly after two Katter’s Australian Party MPs said they couldn’t decide who to support until all the votes had been counted. That is expected to take until <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-ferny-grove-could-be-headed-to-byelection-20150203-134uok.html">February 10</a>. </p>
<p>Even after next week, one seat could be hanging in the balance. Labor is narrowly ahead and looks likely to win the north-western Brisbane electorate of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-04/queensland-election-bruce-mciver-ferny-grove-by-election-fair/6068676">Ferny Grove</a>. But it has emerged since the election that the Palmer United Party candidate wasn’t eligible to run. If the final result is close enough for PUP preferences to have mattered, there could be <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-labor-hopes-for-majority-government-20150205-13755r.html">a by-election</a>.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-queensland-if-theres-a-hung-parliament-37027">Anne Twomey</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/hung-parliament-for-queensland-expect-more-nuance-than-chaos-37038">Graeme Orr</a> have explained on The Conversation, there has to be a government in office <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-queensland-if-theres-a-hung-parliament-37027">at all times</a> – and that means Newman’s post-politics plans have had to be put on hold for now.</p>
<h2>What do caretaker premier and ministers do?</h2>
<p>On the night of the January 31 election, Newman declared that <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-voters-send-a-strong-message-to-eject-newman-37018">“my political career is over”</a>. But the close result means he will remain premier for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>Media footage of Newman packing up his electorate and parliamentary offices led some to question whether Queensland still had a serving premier. The fact is, Newman remains premier, albeit a caretaker one – and the same is true for all his ministers. </p>
<p>Newman <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-05/queensland-crossbenchers-yet-to-make-up-mind-on-who-to-support/6071522">flew to Townsville</a> on Thursday for police graduation, with Labor police spokesman Bill Byrne invited to join him. Similarly, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/jarrod.bleijie">Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie</a> attended the swearing-in of new judges on Wednesday.</p>
<p>Like any other government in caretaker mode, Newman and his ministers can’t simply do what they like. Instead, they have to keep following the caretaker conventions that came into force when the writs for the election were issued. These will stay in place until a new government is formed.</p>
<p>The caretaker conventions are designed to prevent an outgoing government from locking an incoming government into major new policy, funding commitments or significant appointments. They provide that any significant decisions should be deferred, be handled by temporary arrangements (such as with a short-term contract extension) or be subject to consultation with the other parties.</p>
<p>But the caretaker conventions do not prevent the ordinary business of government from continuing. Departments continue to prepare incoming government briefs as required to under the conventions; programs continue to be administered; and payments continue to be made on current contracts, projects and so on.</p>
<p>All this requires sensitivity and judgement and above all, the need to avoid controversy. There are no hard-and-fast rules. </p>
<p>If urgent or unexpected matters arise – such as a natural disaster – it falls to officials to liaise with the caretaker premier and opposition leader and to broker a bipartisan agreement. This is not always easy. Public servants must find ways to navigate a neutral path in the treacherous partisan waters of political combatants, who are facing off when the stakes have never been higher.</p>
<h2>How Wayne Goss kept governing in 1995, even with a crucial seat under challenge</h2>
<p>It is unusual in Queensland for the caretaker conventions to continue post-election. Mostly, but not always (think 1996 and 1998), the result is clear on election night. The increasing incidence of close election results and hung parliaments in all jurisdictions is making the period that the caretaker conventions apply post-election lengthier.</p>
<p>After the July 1995 election, the result wasn’t clear for 10 days, during which time Wayne Goss’s Labor party continued on as the caretaker government. Labor eventually won, claiming the crucial seat of Mundingburra by just 16 votes to reach a slim majority of just 45 seats to the Coalition’s 43. (Bundaberg independent Liz Cunningham held the remaining seat.)</p>
<p>The Mundingburra result was then challenged by the then Liberal Party and referred to the Court of Disputed Returns. While that was going on, Goss governed on.</p>
<p>The court determined in early December 1995 that a by-election should be held. It was called for February 3, 1996. After a bitter campaign, the Liberals claimed Mundingburra to draw even with Labor at 44 seats, leaving Cunningham holding the balance of power. </p>
<p>That put Goss back in the role of caretaker premier again. Nine days after the by-election, Cunningham announced she would support the Rob Borbidge-led National and Liberal coalition to form minority government. Goss resigned as premier on February 19, 1996.</p>
<p>Queenslanders will no doubt be crossing their fingers for a quicker resolution to this election than in 1995-96.</p>
<p>Newman’s defeat in the seat of Ashgrove means that whichever of the major parties forms government in Queensland, the state will have a new premier. </p>
<p>With this in mind, and given both parties have time to contemplate the lessons of Saturday’s poll, I have prepared some more <a href="http://t.co/gzx0snitiP">detailed advice to Queensland’s next premier</a>. If she or he can look after the four Ps – people, process, policy and politics — our next premier will have the best chance possible of hitting the ground running.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Tiernan has received funding support for her research from the Australian Research Council and the Australia and New Zealand School of Government.</span></em></p>Queenslanders won’t know until at least next week who will lead the next state government, despite Labor winning the crucial support of an independent MP. That means Campbell Newman will remain premier…Anne Tiernan, Associate Professor in the School of Government & International Relations, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370582015-02-03T04:17:55Z2015-02-03T04:17:55Z‘Strong’ men in peril: PM hangs on amid NT and Qld shake-up<p><em>* Updated Tuesday 11pm AEDT:</em> A state <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-voters-send-a-strong-message-to-eject-newman-37018">premier</a> gone, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/nt-chief-minister-giles-refuses-to-quit-after-leadership-coup/6065200">a chief minister</a> fighting off a coup, and a prime minister struggling to avoid the others’ fate. </p>
<p>Australian politics is suddenly all about consultative rather than “strong” leaders. </p>
<p>So what’s been going on behind that swing away from self-declared strong leaders? What are the lessons from the Queensland election and the power struggle in the Northern Territory? And has Tony Abbott shown any sign of learning what the true definition of a “strong leader” is?</p>
<h2>Trouble in the Top End</h2>
<p>In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the Northern Territory’s ruling Country Liberal Party revealed that government MPs had ousted Chief Minister Adam Giles, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/colleagues-lost-confidence-in-giles-says-new-westra-van-holthe/6065200">replacing him</a> – only temporarily, it later turned out – with Willem Westra van Holthe. </p>
<p>It’s important to note that the NT leadership spill has roots going back long before last weekend’s shock Queensland election result, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/nt-spill-has-local-roots-pre-dating-any-queensland-induced-panic-37098">Rolf Gerritsen has explained</a>.</p>
<p>But Westra van Holthe said that the rout of the Queensland Liberal National Party and its leader Campbell Newman was a contributing factor in moving against Giles:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Under my leadership, this government will be more consultative with Territorians and engage with them before we make important and crucial decisions … If you look at the result of the Queensland election, government there was punished because the people of Queensland thought they had lost touch with real people.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But the chief minister was not going down without a fight, refusing to quit his position. </p>
<p>Remarkably, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/giles-to-remain-nt-leader-westra-van-holthe-appointed-deputy/6067940">by Tuesday night</a> Giles had been <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/adam-giles-has-seen-off-a-challenge-from-his-colleagues-to-remain-leader-of-the-clp-in-the-northern-territory/story-fnk0b1zt-1227207013898">reconfirmed as chief minister</a>, with Westra van Holthe becoming his deputy.</p>
<h2>A nation’s captain at sea</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, just as the Top End power struggle appeared to be over, the federal government’s woes appeared to be deepening. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/warren-entsch-plans-resolution-of-tony-abbott-leadership-drama/6066842">Coalition backbenchers</a> including Queenslander Warren Entsch and West Australian Dennis Jensen have now spoken about the need for a leadership spill.</p>
<p>Their comments came just a day after <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/tony-abbott-press-club-speech-key-points-and-full-transcript/story-e6frg6n6-1227205021408">Abbott gave a speech</a> that he hoped would save his prime ministership, after too many misjudged “captain’s calls”.</p>
<p>Addressing a room full of journalists and Coalition colleagues at the National Press Club, he used <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/tony-abbott-press-club-speech-key-points-and-full-transcript/story-e6frg6n6-1227205021408">his prepared speech</a> to define his view of leadership:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Leadership is about making the right decisions for our country’s future. It’s not a popularity contest. It’s about real results, it’s about determination, and it’s about you.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, when questioned by reporters about his “captain’s pick” in awarding Prince Philip a knighthood <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-26/abbott-defends-knighthood-for-prince-philip/6046380">without consulting his cabinet</a>, Abbott promised to seek more advice from them in future:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I like my colleagues, I respect my colleagues, I trust my colleagues, above all else, to want to do the right thing by themselves, by our party, by the government and by the country.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Those two quotes illustrate the dilemma of modern political leadership. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"562529229753942016"}"></div></p>
<h2>How ‘strong’ can a leader be without alienating people?</h2>
<p>One of Australia’s leading scholars on political leadership, the late Graham Little, concentrated much of his research on answering this question. His 1988 book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Strong-Leadership-Thatcher-Reagan-Eminent/dp/0195547594">Strong Leadership: Thatcher, Reagan and an Eminent Person</a>, was based on his studies of leadership through observing Malcolm Fraser, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. </p>
<p>Based on this research, Little argued that strong party leaders “have become symbols of who we are, personifications of our way of life and our deepest beliefs”. In arguing this, Little acknowledged a changing political environment in which a leader’s personality and party ideology were becoming intertwined. </p>
<p>Little also argued that “a strong leader” must preserve his own thinking by insulating himself against other points of view. Above all, a “strong leader” must trust in his convictions, often at the expense of others.</p>
<p>Less than two decades later, Australian politics professor Judith Brett applied Little’s theories to John Howard, in her Quarterly Essay, <a href="http://www.quarterlyessay.com/issue/exit-right-unravelling-john-howard">Exit Right: The Unravelling of John Howard</a>, which analysed the outcome of the 2007 election. Early in the essay she noted that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>sometimes Strong Leaders lose. All through 2007, as opinion polls gave Labor a minimum of a ten-point lead, and Howard was staring at defeat, we saw the inherent limits of this style of leadership. Strong Leaders can’t last forever; they can’t admit their mistakes; and they’re not very good at policy.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The rise and fall of Howard and Rudd</h2>
<p>2007 marked a turning point in Australian politics. During the 2007 federal election, “strong leadership” was at its apex, as Howard struggled to maintain his “strong leadership” while Kevin Rudd thrived on his own.</p>
<p>The ALP rode a wave based on highly personalised slogans like “<a href="http://www.stwgroup.com.au/what-we-do/projects/minerals-council-of-of-australia-keep-mining-strong-2">Kevin 07”</a>and <a href="http://electionspeeches.moadoph.gov.au/speeches/2007-kevin-rudd">“New Leadership”</a> to win that election. </p>
<p>The ALP’s strategy was to personify Rudd as Modern Labor in every conceivable fashion. It achieved this by portraying Rudd as a master of new policy initiatives, the boy from country Queensland where the ALP itself had been born, and the man who understood the party’s values better than anyone else.</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Kevin Rudd’s 2007 pitch for the prime ministership.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since the 2007 election, the voting public has not responded well to the “Strong Leadership” strategy. But the major political parties have yet to move on.</p>
<p>At the 2010 federal election, Gillard tried to find “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2010/08/02/2971264.htm">the real Julia</a>” as a model for “Strong Leadership” and ended up losing a number of seats, <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/elections/federal_elections/2010/">hobbling into minority government in the process</a>. </p>
<h2>A loud message from Queensland</h2>
<p>Negative reactions to “Strong Leadership” have occurred in state elections too, most notably in <a href="http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/publications/research-papers/1386-2010-victorian-state-election/download">Victorian Labor’s loss in 2010</a>, (“strong leadership for the times ahead”), and the South Australian Labor (<a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/01/29/in-south-australia-jay4sa-a-bizarre-mirror-image-of-kevin07/">Jay4SA)</a> near defeat <a href="http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/elections/state-elections/2014-state-election-results-summary">last year</a>.</p>
<p>Last Saturday’s Queensland election was the clearest sign yet of voters’ feelings about strong leadership taken too far.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X806o5dXDrg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Despite promoting a “Strong Team”, Campbell Newman dominated the LNP’s election advertising.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Throughout the Queensland campaign, Campbell Newman parroted the word “strong” at every opportunity, using it as the backbone of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-early-election-hinges-on-a-test-of-newmans-strength-35893">LNP’s election strategy</a>, to the point where it became a joke.</p>
<p>Newman became the sole focus of the campaign, and his destiny became tied to the LNP’s. Many voters had already decided that they didn’t like Newman. As a result of the strategy, it was harder for them to like the Queensland LNP much either. </p>
<p>Having gone into this 2015 election holding 73 out of 89 seats in parliament, the LNP is now on the brink of <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-voters-send-a-strong-message-to-eject-newman-37018">losing government</a>. Not the strong performance they had been hoping for.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wqRVkJt5WCw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Queensland premier had a very strong key message for voters.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Federal fallout from the Queensland rout</h2>
<p>If the Queensland LNP’s federal Coalition counterparts weren’t aware of the trend against “Strong Leadership” before, they certainly are now.</p>
<p>Unnamed federal MPs are using the Queensland result to justify a push for Abbott to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/abbotts-popularity-plunge-puts-heat-on-coalition-mps-20150201-1337kt.html">consult much more widely</a>. The days of “the captain” choosing his team’s direction in isolation are behind him: his teammates are demanding a say.</p>
<p>In the meantime, speculation of a federal leadership challenge shows <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/warren-entsch-plans-resolution-of-tony-abbott-leadership-drama/6066842">little sign of dying down</a>.</p>
<p>Abbott’s prepared remarks to the National Press Club suggest he believes that his ingrained political instincts led him to the top job. It’s only when questioned that the prime minister’s spontaneous remarks indicated that he might be realising that what he once saw as an asset has become a dangerous weakness.</p>
<p>Abbott must navigate this contradiction to ensure that he is not only a “strong leader”, but a leader with the strength to do what he keeps promising: <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-moves-to-head-off-critics-20150202-13466k.html">to listen and learn</a> before he acts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Winther does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>* Updated Tuesday 11pm AEDT: A state premier gone, a chief minister fighting off a coup, and a prime minister struggling to avoid the others’ fate. Australian politics is suddenly all about consultative…Todd Winther, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370482015-02-02T04:19:35Z2015-02-02T04:19:35ZWhat ails Abbott is but a symptom of disease of government today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70778/original/image-20150202-25927-11430r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tony Abbott's Press Club speech was merely the first of a long series of tests that he will face every day from now on.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If a single speech is regarded as a <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbott-needs-to-change-his-leadership-if-he-is-to-survive/story-fncynjr2-1227204573453">make-or-break event</a> for an Australian prime minister, then that prime minister faces an uncomfortable future. That’s because the “make” part is a fraud. Tony Abbott could have finished himself off with a dreadful performance at his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBgxxXeWChY&feature=youtu.be">appearance</a> at the National Press Club on Monday. But he never stood a chance of restoring his prime ministership simply by putting on a decent or even a brilliant showing.</p>
<p>That’s because once the make-or-break tests begin, they never stop. Get through this announcement, this parliamentary showdown, this interview and there’ll always be another one. That’s the zone Abbott will now inhabit for as long as he remains prime minister or until the next election, should he still hold the position then. He’s only ever one more blunder away from collapse.</p>
<p>So too is his government. The fixation with his leadership – whether he should be replaced and by whom – at the mid-point of its first term of office unfortunately follows a modern, predictable script. Surely, it’s reasoned, there’s nothing fundamentally wrong with the government; the problems are down to the leader and to messaging. </p>
<p>There are <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/federal-liberal-mp-warns-on-live-tv-that-tony-abbott-could-face-a-leadership-challenge-20150131-132ybs.html">calls</a>, as there have been since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-on-the-brink-of-a-shock-election-win-in-queensland-36983">Queensland state election rout</a>, for Abbott to admit error, to change his ways, or to hand over to someone else. Change the face, ramp up the PR, find a new way to tell the people that what’s being done to them is for their own good, and everything will be back on track.</p>
<p>This obsession with leadership pays insufficient heed to the deeper reasons behind the government’s problems. This is a government with a very long ministerial tail. Its weaknesses start if not at the top then with the second-most-important minister, Treasurer Joe Hockey, and through various parts of the ministry.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70784/original/image-20150202-4888-fok048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70784/original/image-20150202-4888-fok048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70784/original/image-20150202-4888-fok048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70784/original/image-20150202-4888-fok048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70784/original/image-20150202-4888-fok048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70784/original/image-20150202-4888-fok048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70784/original/image-20150202-4888-fok048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70784/original/image-20150202-4888-fok048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Joe Hockey is among the Abbott government’s political liabilities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The lion’s share of responsibility for the government’s trials and its apparent lack of public support must go to Abbott, of course. The power of prime ministers in contemporary Australia is immense. But in a cabinet system of government, there’s a collective responsibility that should be shared by all ministers.</p>
<p>This is all too easily forgotten. The government is not and never has been just Tony Abbott; it is the sum of the Liberal and National party organisations, all the way up to the people the parties put up for cabinet membership.</p>
<p>Where the government has gone wrong is in its attitude to policy formulation and its approach to governing since the Liberal party room made the fateful <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-12-01/shock-win-for-abbott-in-leadership-vote/1163910">decision</a> to install Abbott as leader in December 2009.</p>
<p>Under Abbott, the Coalition has pursued a set of default positions. On policy, it has taken up the modern nostrums of economic liberalism, of <a href="https://theconversation.com/hockeys-first-budget-redefines-the-role-of-government-in-australia-26573">smaller government</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-china-fta-a-stepping-stone-rather-than-an-end-point-28447">free trade agreements</a>, the sale of public assets such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/privatising-medibank-will-an-ipo-deliver-for-taxpayers-24848">Medibank Private</a>, of applying higher consumer prices to government services such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/gp-co-payments-why-price-signals-for-health-dont-work-28857">health</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/letting-the-market-rip-will-suck-the-soul-out-of-universities-26216">higher education</a>. It is assumed by many of the people who write about politics and by public servants and political advisers that the public is comfortable with these policy choices, but there’s mounting evidence that this is not so.</p>
<p>On its communications, the government has opted for the most risk-averse positions. In opposition, despite holding a massive lead over Labor before the 2013 election, it took the safe route and chose to assure voters that it would be able to fix the budget without any cost to voters, with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VN-hbWVXsyE">no cuts</a>, no excuses and <a href="http://electionspeeches.moadoph.gov.au/speeches/2013-tony-abbott">no surprises</a>. The adults would be <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/comment/at-last-the-grownups-are-back-in-charge-20130908-2tdyu.html">back in charge</a>. Surplus budgeting was in the Coalition’s DNA, and so forth.</p>
<p>In office, its ministers all deliver little more than talking points. Its members run down the clock in interviews with answers that rarely address the questions that have been asked.</p>
<p>Government MPs are not unique in this; Labor members have in recent years taken the same approach. But that’s where the Abbott government has got itself into so much strife so quickly.</p>
<p>When voters heard “no surprises”, “the adults are back in charge” and a pledge not to impose costs on them during the repair job, they believed they were going to get authenticity and straight talk from an Abbott government, compared with the ALP’s chaotic, PR-obsessed shenanigans.</p>
<p>Instead, what voters got was a 2014-15 budget that contained nasty surprises such as a Medicare co-payment. They got a higher education policy that looked to place extra burdens on families and graduates.</p>
<p>Voters concluded that they’d been conned. They’d wanted something fresh, something straight. Instead – and qualitative polling by both sides suggests this – they’ve decided that they’ve elected another outfit committed to the political orthodoxy of spin and higher costs.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70785/original/image-20150202-25921-1lwoxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70785/original/image-20150202-25921-1lwoxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70785/original/image-20150202-25921-1lwoxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70785/original/image-20150202-25921-1lwoxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70785/original/image-20150202-25921-1lwoxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70785/original/image-20150202-25921-1lwoxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70785/original/image-20150202-25921-1lwoxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70785/original/image-20150202-25921-1lwoxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Queenslanders look to have voted out Campbell Newman’s goverment after just one term.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Being seen as a liar or a sneak is sudden death in modern politics because we appear to have moved into a new era in which – if the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorians-look-set-to-elect-unlikely-premier-no-3-34431">Victorian</a> and Queensland elections are a reliable guide – there is no such thing as redemption.</p>
<p>The sense of crisis that has overtaken the Abbott government in the past week has been triggered by two events that have little material effect on national politics: Abbott’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-26/abbott-defends-knighthood-for-prince-philip/6046380">awarding</a> of an Australian knighthood to the Duke of Edinburgh, Prince Philip, and the Queensland election result.</p>
<p>The reason that they’ve resonated so profoundly in Canberra is that they reflect public revulsion at not being told all of the truth. Abbott <a href="https://theconversation.com/knights-dames-be-honest-australia-you-love-it-24875">reintroduced</a> Australian knighthoods only six months after the 2013 election. It was only a tiny surprise but an unnecessary one nonetheless. The shock of the first Hockey budget came soon after and the government has never recovered.</p>
<p>The Queensland result was the final response by voters to Campbell Newman’s 2012 pre-election promise that the jobs of state public servants and government workers were safe. Upon being elected, he promptly got rid of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-14/no-qld-public-servants-sacked-newman-says/4261346">14,000 of them</a>, and his poll ratings started to fall away from that moment. His commitment to sell off government assets – a popular policy for adherents to the political orthodoxy but highly unpopular among many voters – locked in that fall.</p>
<p>Abbott did not do too badly at the National Press Club, although his call for political debate in which there were no cheap shots – and in which all players acted in the national interest and not their own self-interest – was, in the context of his own performance as leader, a bit of a stretch.</p>
<p>But it was merely the first of a long, long series of tests that Abbott will face every day from now on. And just getting a pass will never be enough.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37048/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Carney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If a single speech is regarded as a make-or-break event for an Australian prime minister, then that prime minister faces an uncomfortable future. That’s because the “make” part is a fraud. Tony Abbott…Shaun Carney, Adjunct Associate Professor, School of Social Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370382015-02-02T02:05:37Z2015-02-02T02:05:37ZHung parliament for Queensland? Expect more nuance than chaos<p>Driving back to Brisbane from my childhood home of Nambour, I saw the most extraordinary political billboard. In monumental black and white, it <a href="https://twitter.com/margokingston1/status/560430260320083968/photo/1">simply said</a>: Hung Parliament. Chaos.</p>
<p>That these stark and expensive warnings suddenly appeared in the final week of the campaign should have alerted commentators – me included – that the election was going to be line-ball. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"560430260320083968"}"></div></p>
<p>We all knew that Premier Campbell Newman, in his seat of Ashgrove, could not survive the heavy swing his government faced. But we <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/opinion-campbell-newman-could-be-a-leader-victim-of-a-war-his-side-wins/story-fnrab879-1227183718894?nk=8c28711aea6d382d5cbedca6ab78d0fa">overestimated the benefits of incumbency</a> to the LNP and underestimated the extreme volatility of contemporary electorates.</p>
<p>As we now know, Premier Newman (for he still is that, until he <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-queensland-if-theres-a-hung-parliament-37027">tenders his commission</a> to the Governor) has redefined the term “one-term wonder”. In 2012, <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/over-the-top-with-campbell-newman">campaigning from outside parliament</a>, he led the LNP to a historic landslide. A swing of almost 14% reduced the ALP to seven MPs out of 89.</p>
<p>Fast-forward through the blur of three intervening years, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-annastacia-palaszczuk-queenslands-likely-next-premier-37023">Annastacia Palaszczuk</a> is on the verge of becoming premier. An accidental leader of the Secret Seven MPs in 2012, she may in the next fortnight become just the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Territory_general_election,_2001">second female</a> to lead her party from opposition to government. May. Or may not.</p>
<p>What then awaits Queensland politics in the next two weeks?</p>
<h2>Queensland’s Queen’s man</h2>
<p>In theory, ultimate power still resides with the Crown. Its ceremonial role becomes intellectually taxing only at times like these: close elections, hung parliaments and unclear executive transitions.</p>
<p>Queensland’s Governor, Paul de Jersey, QC, was until last year its third-longest-serving chief justice. He retired at the still spritely, by judicial reckoning, age of 66 to accept Newman’s offer to become the local viceroy.</p>
<p>De Jersey is an eminent lawyer and a traditionalist: army reservist, <a href="https://www.churchie.com.au/">Churchie School</a> graduate and chancellor of the state’s Anglican diocese. He was no doubt, last week, consulting his copy of the Constitution of Queensland Act 2001, prepping for all possibilities. </p>
<p>One section, the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/qld/consol_act/coq2001288/s23.html">23rd</a>, would have given him pause, if not constitutional dyspepsia, had the LNP harboured a “plan B” to try to keep Newman on. That section strongly implies that the Governor can only appoint MPs as ministers.</p>
<p>It may have counteracted <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lyon_Mackenzie_King">Canadian precedents</a> of leaders losing their seats but hanging on until a fellow MP in a safe seat was sacrificed. </p>
<p>As it happens, Newman, a proud man, did the honourable thing by the state and his party. He bowed out of politics on election night. His party can now make him – and Prime Minister Tony Abbott – its public scapegoat, while it moves to resolve his successor. </p>
<h2>The numbers game</h2>
<p>Politics may be about ideas, but electoral politics is ultimately about numbers. At the close of counting on election night, the ALP appeared bound for between 43 and 46 seats. It could scrape a majority in its own right, but this <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/results/">seems less likely than not</a>.</p>
<p>Absentee votes lean a little left, but given the ease of pre-polling these days, absentee votes are less common. As Adrian Beaumont <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-votes-how-the-numbers-are-falling-for-labor-37026">surmised</a>, postal votes usually trend heavily to incumbents, especially conservatives.</p>
<p>Then, uniquely at this election, there is the unknown unknown. How many people had to lodge a “declaration vote” because they <a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslanders-now-have-to-prove-their-identity-to-vote-but-why-35956">did not bring ID</a> to the polls? How many of those votes will be counted, and what demographics do they represent?</p>
<p>In short, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/results/seats-in-doubt/">one or two ultra-marginals</a> will decide whether Labor has a clear seat advantage over the LNP, and whether there are <a href="http://www.frasercoastchronicle.com.au/news/live-updates-fraser-coast-residents-head-polls/2528616/">three or four crossbenchers</a>. Even barring litigation, these results could take a week or more, since postal votes can drift in for up to ten days after election day.</p>
<p>This muddies the water, and not just for the Governor and his consultations. It also complicates the LNP’s desire to move swiftly to elect a leader. LNP state president Bruce McIver has said the party would now be looking for “some fresh ideas, fresh start, fresh leadership team”.</p>
<p>Any one of several new leaders is possible. Business-like Treasurer Tim Nicholls. The urbane transport minister, Scott Emerson. Respected health minister and former party leader, Lawrence Springborg. And on Monday, speaker Fiona Simpson put up her hand, saying the LNP had <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/lnp-speaker-fiona-simpson-concedes-lnp-stuffed-up-in-queensland/story-fnn8dlfs-1227204758595?sv=a57d281ca3080611b761e8e6549f5a4c&utm_source=Courier%20Mail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=editorial&net_sub_uid=58372232">“stuffed up”</a> and that her party needed a new, more consultative, style of leadership.</p>
<p>The absence of a clear Newman succession plan is unsurprising. The LNP knew it would lose dozens of MPs. How could any of these contenders be sure of his numbers until after the election?</p>
<h2>Negotiate or retreat?</h2>
<p>The ALP is therefore in the box seat in two senses. It is likely to have a seat or two more than the LNP. It also has a leader. Not just a leader in the ascendant, but a leader, full stop.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk can immediately begin negotiations with the crossbenchers. In contrast, the LNP is leaderless. Before the election the presumptive favourite was Nicholls, the architect of the LNP’s privatisation plans.</p>
<p>Privatisation is anathema to the Katter’s Australian Party (KAP), which has two continuing MPs. They represent bush electorates. After the 2010 federal election, their eponymous federal leader, Bob Katter junior, sided with Tony Abbott over Julia Gillard in negotiations to form a minority government. </p>
<p>Like “Black Jack” McEwen, the Country Party leader who vetoed Billy McMahon as prime minister on Harold Holt’s death, the KAP MPs could exercise a virtual veto on the LNP leadership. If the LNP wished to lead a hung parliament it might have to elect Springborg or Simpson. </p>
<p>KAP MP Shane Knuth <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/2015/02/queensland-votes-2015-post-election-wash-up.html">said on Monday</a> he could potentially work with Simpson, Springborg or Tim Mander. But he warned that if the LNP stuck with its current senior leadership team they would be “wasting their time”, singling out Nicholls for criticism, saying he was “frothing at the mouth to sell our assets”.</p>
<p>The longest serving of the crossbenchers – 18 years all told – is an independent, provincial solicitor <a href="http://peterwellingtonmp.com/">Peter Wellington</a>. His seat of Nicklin is part of the Sunshine Coast, a conservative redoubt. </p>
<p>Wellington, true to his former profession, is a stickler for accountability and governance practices. He became a trenchant critic of the Newman government on process issues. In 1998, in a hung parliament, he sided with Labor.</p>
<p>Like his federal counterpart in the area, Clive Palmer, Wellington owes his seat to tactical voting and preferences from Labor supporters, in and around Nambour. Nambour is a hinterland town that educated Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan. Wellington is a likely Labor supporter.</p>
<h2>Advantage is with Labor</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70761/original/image-20150202-25914-53vo0k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70761/original/image-20150202-25914-53vo0k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70761/original/image-20150202-25914-53vo0k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=828&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70761/original/image-20150202-25914-53vo0k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=828&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70761/original/image-20150202-25914-53vo0k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=828&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70761/original/image-20150202-25914-53vo0k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1040&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70761/original/image-20150202-25914-53vo0k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1040&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70761/original/image-20150202-25914-53vo0k.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1040&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Despite the warnings of this full-page LNP election-eve ad in the Courier-Mail, the result is more likely to be nuance than chaos.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">LNP Queensland</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Momentum is an overused word in electoral politics. Elections are not football games, where one side’s growing confidence can turn a result. Electors decide elections, not politicians’ psychologies.</p>
<p>But in negotiations for a hung parliament, where the psyche of politicians is paramount, momentum is relevant. One side (here Labor) will have come out of the election revivified. The other, the government, will be bruised and soul-searching.</p>
<p>The LNP campaigned hard on the “chaos” of a hung parliament. In truth, hung parliaments are nuanced, not chaotic. Given its campaign position, its drubbing and its leaderless state, the LNP may prefer to retreat to attend to its wounds and let Labor negotiate its way to a working majority.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Editor’s note: Graeme will be answering questions between 1 and 2pm AEDT on Tuesday February 3. You can ask your questions about the article in the comments below.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graeme Orr is the author of Ritual and Rhythm in Electoral Systems (2015).</span></em></p>Driving back to Brisbane from my childhood home of Nambour, I saw the most extraordinary political billboard. In monumental black and white, it simply said: Hung Parliament. Chaos. That these stark and…Graeme Orr, Professor of Law, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370262015-02-01T00:08:36Z2015-02-01T00:08:36ZQueensland votes: how the numbers are falling for Labor<p>With 70.6% of the Queensland state election vote counted, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/results/">the ABC is giving Labor</a> 44 seats to 33 for the Liberal National Party (LNP). Two Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) and one Independent have also won seats. Counting of votes resumed on Sunday.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, there are problems with the current ABC count because the ABC computer uses the results from the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ), which has selected the wrong two candidates in Gaven for preference vote counting. Labor actually looks likely to have won 43 of 89 seats, with 40 for the LNP, two KAP and one Independent. Three seats – Whitsunday, Mansfield and Maryborough – <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-01/queensland-election-2015-kap-ready-to-cut-deal-with-labor/6060296">are genuinely still undecided</a>. </p>
<p>If Labor wins 43 seats, it would represent a massive 34-seat gain from the pre-election parliament – and a gain of 36 seats from the 2012 election, when Labor was reduced to just seven seats out of 89. (Labor won two by-elections last year.)</p>
<p>The primary votes are currently 40.8% for the LNP, down 8.9%; 38.1% for Labor, up 11.5%; 8.4% for the Greens, up 0.9%; and 5.0% for Palmer United Party (PUP). </p>
<p>As declaration votes come in, I expect Labor’s overall vote to drop and the Greens and LNP to slightly increase their vote shares. Postal votes tend to heavily favour the conservatives, but polling day absent votes have shown a clear tendency to favour the left. Most pre-poll votes were counted on the night.</p>
<p>As a result, the major party primary votes will probably end up fairly close to the LNP’s 41-37 margin predicted by the final polls. </p>
<p>A major surprise was that the Greens outperformed their polling; the Greens had underperformed at the last Victorian, Tasmanian and federal elections. </p>
<p>The pollsters’ estimate of a narrow but clear 52-48 LNP win after preferences was wrong, partly owing to the high Greens vote, but mostly because preferences were clearly much more favourable to Labor than at the 2012 election.</p>
<p>A clear illustration of this point is that the <a href="http://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2015/results/summary.html#14">LNP is leading on primary</a> votes in 51 seats to Labor’s 35, yet Labor is leading <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/results/seats-in-doubt/">after preferences in 45</a> seats to 41 for the LNP. Given <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-queenslanders-in-danger-of-wasting-their-votes-35919">optional preferential voting</a> in Queensland, it is remarkable that Labor is currently winning 10 seats from behind on primary votes; in 2012, Labor won no seats when trailing on first preferences. The “put the LNP last” campaign was a major success at this election.</p>
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<p>Premier Campbell Newman lost Ashgrove by a 54.1-45.9 margin, a 9.8% swing to Labor’s Kate Jones. Primary votes in Ashgrove were 44.4% for Jones, up 7.8%; 44.0% for Newman, down 7.9%; and 10.0% for the Greens, up 0.8%. Contrary to pre-election polling, Jones only just leads on primary votes, but a stronger flow of Greens preferences gives her a decisive margin after preferences.</p>
<p>In the 78 Labor vs LNP classic contests – where the final two candidates are Labor and the LNP – the average swing to Labor was just over 14%. If that swing is the same in the non-classic seats, Labor would have about a 51-49 win after preferences, though this is likely to come down on declaration votes. Unfortunately, the ECQ does not do Labor vs LNP two-party counts in non-classic seats, so we will only be able to estimate the final statewide two-party vote. </p>
<p>The biggest swing to Labor happened in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/bung/">Bundaberg</a>, home to Police Minister Jack Dempsey. Labor gained a 23.8% swing, erasing the LNP’s 18.2% margin. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/results/electorates/">Other seats</a> that swung more than 20% to Labor were Woodridge, Redlands, Pine Rivers, Ipswich and Bundamba.</p>
<p>Barring late counting surprises, the three undecided seats are Mansfield, Whitsunday and Maryborough. In the first two, Labor is currently neck-and-neck with the LNP, but I expect the LNP to move ahead as declaration votes are counted. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/mary/">Maryborough</a>, primary votes are 29.2% for the LNP, 25.6% for Labor, 22.1% for Independent Chris Foley, 12.6% for PUP and 7.1% for One Nation. Labor leads the LNP on the preference count by 52.4-47.6, but there is a chance that Foley could beat Labor into second place on One Nation and PUP preferences. I think this is unlikely and that Labor will win Maryborough, and thus a 44th seat.</p>
<p>If Labor wins 44 seats, they should win the support of Nicklin Independent Peter Wellington, who supported Labor in similar circumstances following the 1998 election.</p>
<p>If Labor finishes with 43, then the two KAP members would have the balance of power. On Sunday, re-elected member for Mount Isa and state KAP leader <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-01/queensland-election-2015-kap-ready-to-cut-deal-with-labor/6060296">Rob Katter said</a> his party was ready to negotiate.</p>
<p>What this election has shown is that, in today’s political climate, being obliterated at an election does not mean that a party cannot win the following election. Voters are far more volatile today than they were 20 years ago. Queensland Labor has come back from a slaughter to be on the cusp of victory and federal Labor has an emphatic poll lead after being thumped in 2013.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37026/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With 70.6% of the Queensland state election vote counted, the ABC is giving Labor 44 seats to 33 for the Liberal National Party (LNP). Two Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) and one Independent have also…Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370212015-01-31T15:04:42Z2015-01-31T15:04:42ZQueensland vote rocks Abbott<p>The rout in Queensland is shocking news for Tony Abbott. It will terrify federal backbenchers and further destabilise his leadership.</p>
<p>It puts up in lights that the unpopular federal Coalition could easily become a one term government.</p>
<p>That the Liberal National Party would be <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-on-the-brink-of-a-shock-election-win-in-queensland-36983">on the brink</a> of losing Queensland – with the ABC’s Antony Green predicting a Labor win as the most likely outcome – was almost inconceivable before the vote, given the massive majority that Campbell Newman won just three years ago. A swing of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/">more than 11%</a> to the ALP in one election is mind-blowing.</p>
<p>Newman’s unceremonious demise in his seat of Ashgrove had been on the cards; he was on the nose in the electorate and Labor’s Kate Jones, a former minister in the Bligh government, had run an intense and effective grassroots campaign.</p>
<p>State factors – especially the government’s assets leasing plan, Newman’s cuts and his arrogant style – were the primary drivers of the Queensland result, as Labor’s Wayne Swan conceded on ABC TV.</p>
<p>But Abbott is clothed in some of the blame and, given his weakened position, the implications for him will be very serious.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"561663119290683393"}"></div></p>
<p>Abbott was totally banned from the campaign because he was considered toxic by the Queensland LNP. His knighthood for Prince Philip was a distraction in the final week and particularly bad for Newman’s seat. The government’s to-ing and fro-ing over Medicare could not have been worse timing.</p>
<p>Most importantly, people see the Abbott government as having the same arrogant style as the Newman one. “Two peas in a pod,” as Swan put it.</p>
<p>Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls, who is a possible successor to Newman as leader, said: “There were certainly federal factors, and there were less than helpful things.” He referred to discussion about raising the GST, as well as the Medicare co-payment and the knighthood.</p>
<p>The waves from Queensland will rock the federal ship. Federal LNP backbencher Jane Prentice was blunt. “We need to take lessons,” she said. “We can’t continue as we are”.</p>
<p>Prentice said that last week she had told Abbott – who has been ringing around the backbench in recent days – that “you are not taking the people with you; we are not explaining why we are doing things”.</p>
<p>Asked whether there would be a challenge to Abbott’s leadership, Prentice pointed to his Monday speech to the National Press Club and said it would be “pivotal”.</p>
<p>This appearance will now be massively difficult for Abbott. It’s already been briefed out that his unpopular paid parental scheme will be put on ice. But he’ll need a lot more than a belated burying of a negative.</p>
<p>A Galaxy poll in the Sunday Telegraph, coming after his horror week, shows how embattled he is. The government is trailing 43-57% in two-party terms. The Coalition’s primary vote is down to 36%. That would represent a wipeout if an election were held now. In the poll, Abbott is behind Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, 27-44%. Shorten campaigned extensively in Queensland.</p>
<p>Abbott is caught in the familiar cycle of a failing leader. Ministers are trying to shore up his support. “Everyone wants Tony to succeed,” Attorney-General George Brandis said on Sky. The cabinet to a person was behind Abbott and “structurally this government is solid and united”. </p>
<p>Liberal deputy Julie Bishop, who with Malcolm Turnbull is a touted alternative if there were to be a change, is reported in the Sunday Telegraph as assuring Abbott she is not campaigning for his job.</p>
<p>As MPs say the government must get out its message much better, Turnbull has notably made the point, in a speech delivered in Los Angeles, that leaders must be “explainers and advocates, unravelling complex issues in clear language”.</p>
<p>Indeed. Something that Abbott has not been able to do.</p>
<p>Among the lessons from Queensland are that reform is extremely hard; getting the voters to accept big changes is vital but difficult for governments these days; leaders will be cut little or no slack; and when politicians breach trust they’ll pay a hefty price.</p>
<p>Above all, voters won’t tolerate leaders and governments who believe they can win power and then get away with thumbing their nose at those who elected them. The voters’ response is “off with their heads”.</p>
<p>After Queensland it has become impossible to predict where things will go federally, including who will lead the federal Liberals to the next election, and what the likely result of that election will be.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37021/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The rout in Queensland is shocking news for Tony Abbott. It will terrify federal backbenchers and further destabilise his leadership. It puts up in lights that the unpopular federal Coalition could easily…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370182015-01-31T14:27:46Z2015-01-31T14:27:46ZQueensland voters send a strong message to eject Newman<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70688/original/image-20150131-25914-10mlioh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With the final Queensland election result still hanging in the balance, Campbell Newman – flanked by his wife Lisa – conceded he had lost his own seat and would leave politics.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nine News</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“My political career is over.”</p>
<p>Campbell Newman’s spectacular entry into Queensland state politics has only been trumped by his spectacular exit. </p>
<p>After less than three years in power, and having led the LNP to a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2012/">record victory in 2012</a>, Newman has bowed out of politics after losing his Brisbane seat of Ashgrove. Even worse, his Liberal National Party looks increasingly unlikely to be able to hang onto government.</p>
<p>Late on Saturday night, <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-on-the-brink-of-a-shock-election-win-in-queensland-36983">it remained unclear</a> whether Labor will reach a 45-seat majority in its own right, or whether it might need the support of others to form a minority government. The count will resume on Sunday morning.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"561518918607462400"}"></div></p>
<h2>A shock result and the likely LNP leader</h2>
<p>The result was a stunning and unprecedented rebuke of everything Newman campaigned on during the election. His mantra focused on strength – but he, his party and most political observers all underestimated how vulnerable his government was.</p>
<p>So, where to for the LNP from here?</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KuWlgFNs1Zw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Campbell Newman’s concession speech, with his wife Lisa by his side.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Newman said in his concession speech that his Liberal National Party was strong and stable.</p>
<p>But how can a government be strong and stable if it is removed after one term?</p>
<p>Given that the entire campaign was focused on everything that Newman said and did, even from a Labor perspective, the consequences of his shocking defeat remain largely unclear. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ogERbNrCvZc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Campbell Newman’s victory speech in March 2012.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This result is the inverse of 2012, where Anna Bligh and Labor suffered a 15.6% swing against it. </p>
<p>In looking to recover from this result, the LNP may have no choice but to lay the blame squarely at Newman’s feet. Last night, several senior state MPs were also talking about unhelpful federal “distractions”, including speculation during the campaign about raising the GST and Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s surprise decision to knight Prince Philip.</p>
<p>Who would want to take the LNP leadership in these circumstances? Treasurer Tim Nicholls is now in the box seat, as Springborg is unlikely to want to be opposition leader again for another three years.</p>
<h2>‘Absolutely stunned’: Labor MP</h2>
<p>The ALP ran a hugely successful negative campaign against the government, with almost no policy content aside from refusing to sell assets. Newman made a big show during the leadership debate on Friday over the fact that ALP’s election costings were contained on just four pieces of paper.</p>
<p>Even the most confident of Labor’s supporters would be surprised by this outcome. <a href="http://www.queenslandlabor.org/candidate/di-farmer/">Di Farmer</a>, who has reclaimed her old seat of Bulimba after being defeated in 2012, told ABC TV:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I am absolutely stunned. Look, I was very aware as a local candidate that there was a really, really strong feeling about Campbell Newman and the LNP just not listening to people. It was very, very strong … I had no idea that people really so desperately wanted to send a message to them that this is how they were feeling. I think everyone would be amazed by it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Palaszczuk looks set to be the first woman to win a state election from opposition: an historic achievement by any measure.</p>
<p>But Palaszczuk’s biggest challenge if Labor does form government will be to come up with a set of policies as quickly as possible. Otherwise the results of 2012 and 2015 may repeat themselves in 2018.</p>
<p>A week into the election campaign, <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/01/12/labor--lnp-rule-out-minority-qld-government.html">Palaszczuk repeatedly ruled out</a> doing deals to form a minority government in a hung parliament. As AAP reported:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>‘Let me make it very clear: no, no, no, no deals. Next question,’ Ms Palaszczuk said while campaigning in Ipswich on Monday. It was part of a response where she said ‘no’ 10 times in under 15 seconds to emphasise her point.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Palaszczuk’s pledge was a response to the LNP’s promise not to form a minority government, and its warning about Labor “flopping over the line” with the support of minor parties and independents. </p>
<p>It may have seemed like an easy promise for Palaszczuk to make at the time. But it gives Labor one more more reason to hope it gets the numbers to govern in its own right.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37018/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Winther does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>“My political career is over.” Campbell Newman’s spectacular entry into Queensland state politics has only been trumped by his spectacular exit. After less than three years in power, and having led the…Todd Winther, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/359082015-01-29T19:41:41Z2015-01-29T19:41:41ZTen things to watch on and after election night in Queensland<p>You know it’s an extraordinary election when a party holds 73 of the 89 seats in parliament thanks to a <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/05/post-election-pendulum-for-2012-queensland-election.html">record-breaking victory</a> just three years earlier – yet there’s talk of that party losing government. Not only that, but there’s also a real threat to the state’s premier, with <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-29/campbell-newman-says-no-plan-b-for-leader-if-hes/6056004">no Plan B for a successor</a>.</p>
<p>That’s the state of play in Queensland, making Saturday’s election a must-watch for anyone interested in politics. (If you live outside Queensland, you can tune in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-29/queensland-votes-abc-election-coverage/6053086">on ABC News 24</a>, as well as follow news and expert reaction on <a href="https://theconversation.com/au">The Conversation</a>.)</p>
<p>While most polls and my prediction is that the Liberal National Party (LNP) will retain power, it’s possible that there won’t be a clear result on Saturday night, especially given the <a href="http://www.news-mail.com.au/news/pre-poll-voting-popular/2519425/">popularity of pre-poll voting</a> and that the predicted swing against the government is likely to vary greatly across the state.</p>
<p>So what are the people, places and issues to watch on election night and beyond? </p>
<h2>1. Can the premier hang on to power?</h2>
<p>There are two questions Campbell Newman has become sick of facing every day on the campaign trail: can he really win his seat of Ashgrove? And who will be the <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-queenslands-unofficial-premiers-in-waiting-35952">next premier</a> if he loses but the LNP retains government? </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70470/original/image-20150129-22305-t1ghtv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70470/original/image-20150129-22305-t1ghtv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70470/original/image-20150129-22305-t1ghtv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70470/original/image-20150129-22305-t1ghtv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70470/original/image-20150129-22305-t1ghtv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70470/original/image-20150129-22305-t1ghtv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70470/original/image-20150129-22305-t1ghtv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70470/original/image-20150129-22305-t1ghtv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Campbell Newman’s campaign office in Ashgrove.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Liz Minchin</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For months, the <a href="https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7news-ashgrove-poll-27january2015">polls have consistently pointed</a> to Labor’s Kate Jones snatching back the seat she lost to Newman with a big swing in 2012. </p>
<p>Despite knowing it would be tough to win again with a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/ashg/">margin of only 5.7%</a>, Newman last year <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/national/2014/10/04/qld-premier-newman-rules-out-shift-to-moggill.html">opted against switching to a safer seat</a>.</p>
<p>Newman may be regretting that decision. After mostly out-campaigning Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk, he has hurt his own chances of victory, particularly over the past week. </p>
<p>Newman’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-premier-suing-alan-jones-is-risky-legal-experts-36651">risky decision</a> to respond to claims by Sydney broadcaster Alan Jones <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-23/campbell-newman-and-jeff-seeney-suing-alan-jones-for-defamation/6041274">in the form of a lawsuit</a> began the derailment of his campaign. Then he claimed in <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/01/24/newman-hits-out-at-alleged-union-bikie-links.html">the first leaders’ debate</a> that the ALP had received funds from motorcycle gangs, which could not be proven definitively and which he began to back away from within days.</p>
<p>By Australia Day, Newman swapped a long-planned appearance at the state’s official <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/queensland-election-2015-campbell-newman-sticks-to-jobs/story-fnr8rfrw-1227197629551?login=1">Australia Day ceremony in Townsville</a> to go to a small citizenship ceremony in his own electorate. He has spent <a href="http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/lnp-risk-20-brisbane-seats-labor-surges-poll/2526851/">much of this final week</a> in Brisbane.</p>
<p>Newman hasn’t been helped by the LNP’s campaign strategy. Six days before the public cast their votes, he <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/01/25/newman-focused-labor-bikie-links-claim">toured Bundaberg</a>, a seat that is always <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/bung/">going to stay</a> with the LNP, regardless of the outcome on Saturday.</p>
<p>On Thursday, with less than 48 hours before the polls opened, Newman scrapped a <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-premier-rushes-to-brisbane-amid-poll-woes-20150129-130v8l.html">final blitz of marginal seats in north Queensland</a> and returned to Brisbane. But it may be too late. Expect Queensland to have a new LNP premier by this time next week. </p>
<h2>2. Who are the LNP’s premiers-in-waiting, and are they in danger too?</h2>
<p>Treasurer Tim Nicholls remains the bookies’ favourite to replace Newman if Newman loses his seat. But as I’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-queenslands-unofficial-premiers-in-waiting-35952">explained before</a>, my tip is Health Minister Lawrence Springborg.</p>
<p>Are either of them at risk of losing their seats? No. Nicholls’ inner northern Brisbane seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/clay/">Clayfield</a> is on a 20.6% margin, while Springborg is sitting on the largest margin in the Queensland parliament: 30.4% in his rural southern Queensland seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/sdow/">Southern Downs</a>.</p>
<p>You can read a full form guide on Nicholls, Springborg and the other unofficial premiers-in-waiting <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-queenslands-unofficial-premiers-in-waiting-35952">here</a>.</p>
<h2>3. Do Queenslanders oppose privatisation more than they support big projects?</h2>
<p>In this election, there is clear choice for voters between the two major parties’ policies. The LNP has <a href="http://www.strongchoices.qld.gov.au/Strong_Choices_Final_Plan_Web.pdf">proposed</a> long-term leases of state assets so that they can raise A$37 billion, mostly to pay off debt, but setting aside $8.6 billion for <a href="http://qld.lnp.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SE15_Policy_StrongChoicesLesstimeonTrains_Document.pdf">new roads, rail and other infrastructure projects</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70486/original/image-20150129-22295-1ufj1p1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70486/original/image-20150129-22295-1ufj1p1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70486/original/image-20150129-22295-1ufj1p1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70486/original/image-20150129-22295-1ufj1p1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70486/original/image-20150129-22295-1ufj1p1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70486/original/image-20150129-22295-1ufj1p1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70486/original/image-20150129-22295-1ufj1p1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70486/original/image-20150129-22295-1ufj1p1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An LNP Facebook post, January 26.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">LNP/Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Privatisation is <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-privatisation-plan-12b-infrastructure-boost-the-sweetener/story-fnihsrf2-1227081768066">unpopular with Queenslanders</a>, which is why last year the LNP switched from pushing for asset sales to asset leases. The upside for the government is that it has a huge war chest for election promises.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70472/original/image-20150129-22322-1f6ec59.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70472/original/image-20150129-22322-1f6ec59.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70472/original/image-20150129-22322-1f6ec59.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=835&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70472/original/image-20150129-22322-1f6ec59.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=835&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70472/original/image-20150129-22322-1f6ec59.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=835&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70472/original/image-20150129-22322-1f6ec59.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70472/original/image-20150129-22322-1f6ec59.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70472/original/image-20150129-22322-1f6ec59.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A full page Labor ad run in The Courier-Mail newspaper on January 29.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In contrast, Labor has largely run on an <a href="http://annastacia.com.au/Policies/Our%20State.%20Our%20Assets.%20Labor%27s%20fiscal%20strategy%20and%20debt%20action%20plan.pdf">anti-asset lease/sale platform</a>: more popular, but leaving the party with only a fraction of the funds for election sweeteners, totalling a <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/qld-labor-reveals-election-costings/story-e6frfku9-1227201132646">“deliberately modest” $1.6 billion</a>.</p>
<p>In Ashgrove, the choice facing voters is just as stark. Early in the campaign Newman pledged <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-ashgrove-plan-gets-18-million-20150111-12lylr.html">$18 million worth of projects under his Ashgrove plan</a>, which is far more than any of the surrounding Brisbane seats have been promised. Jones simply can’t match Newman’s largesse, so she hasn’t even tried, instead running on a platform of being <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4170089.htm">“a local that you can trust”</a>.</p>
<p>In an unusual and controversial move, the LNP have even told voters outright that they <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-24/no-guarantees-on-projects-if-electorates-snub-lnp-newman/6044122">have to vote for a local LNP MP</a> if they want to see their local projects delivered. </p>
<p>This election will provide an interesting litmus test of whether Queenslanders will accept privatising state assets in return for the promises of better roads, rail and other infrastructure.</p>
<h2>4. How many victims of ‘Bligh’s Bloodbath’ will return?</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2012/results/summary.html">2012 election</a> left Labor with just seven seats out of 89 in parliament, earning them a nickname as the “Tarago party” because all their MPs could fit inside a people-mover. </p>
<p>During the last parliamentary term, Labor’s meagre numbers received a boost of two more seats on the back of by-elections in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/redc/">Redcliffe</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/staf/">Stafford</a>.</p>
<p>Labor suffered many high-profile casualties in 2012, many of whom were considered potential successors to Anna Bligh after her inevitable defeat. Chief among them was Cameron Dick, the former education minister, who was defeated in the seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/gree/">Greenslopes</a> (now held by the LNP with a 2.5% margin). He has now moved to the traditional Labor heartland seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/wood/">Woodridge</a> (on a 5.8% margin), with an eye on the leadership.</p>
<p>Another ALP candidate with big ambitions is Sterling Hinchcliffe, the former state development minister. Despite the calamitous result for the ALP in 2012, many expected Hinchcliffe to retain his seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/sand/">Sandgate</a>.</p>
<p>While Dick has the higher media profile, it would not be surprising to see Hinchcliffe succeed Palaszczuk as ALP leader at some time during the next parliamentary term. </p>
<p>However, Palaszczuk has more immediate concerns if she hopes to keep her job. </p>
<h2>5. Will Palaszczuk stay as Labor leader?</h2>
<p>The ALP has had a difficult campaign, but the opposition’s lack of resources throughout has meant that their errors have mostly been less glaring. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70485/original/image-20150129-22295-1v47z73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70485/original/image-20150129-22295-1v47z73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70485/original/image-20150129-22295-1v47z73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70485/original/image-20150129-22295-1v47z73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70485/original/image-20150129-22295-1v47z73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70485/original/image-20150129-22295-1v47z73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70485/original/image-20150129-22295-1v47z73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70485/original/image-20150129-22295-1v47z73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Annastacia Palaszczuk rallies the troops in the final week of campaigning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland Labor/Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Palaszczuk has been a conundrum during the last fortnight. At times she has been unable to get any traction with the media, and yet at others she has been <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-leaders-uninspiring-at-peoples-forum-20150123-12x8r0.html">overly aggressive</a>, almost as if she has been advised to match Newman’s demeanour. </p>
<p>On Thursday, she made headlines by being <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/qld-election-2015-annastacia-palaszczuk-cant-answer-gst-question-20150129-130r7d.html">unable to say what the rate of the Goods and Services Tax</a> is (which she put down to <a href="http://media.smh.com.au/news/qld-news/palaszczuk-laughs-off-gst-slipup-6209680.html">missing her morning coffee</a>). Palaszczuk has also avoided difficult interviews throughout the campaign, and tellingly she did not launch Labor’s election costings, <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/qld-labor-reveals-election-costings/story-e6frfku9-1227201132646">leaving it to shadow treasurer Curtis Pitt</a>. </p>
<p>Assuming there isn’t a shock Labor win that elevates her to become premier, Palaszczuk’s best chance to remain leader in opposition is to win a number of seats in a variety of demographics. For her, the more regional seats the ALP can secure the better. Her fate will largely be determined by how many former Bligh ministers win seats on Saturday night.</p>
<h2>6. Which are the key areas in south-east Queensland?</h2>
<p>A number of seats in Brisbane’s southern suburbs represent margins similar to the state-wide swing needed for the Labor to win government. </p>
<p>Pay particular attention to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/mans/">Mansfield (LNP with a 11.1% margin)</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/albe/">Albert (LNP, 11.9%)</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/sunn/">Sunnybank (LNP, 10.2%)</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/stre/">Stretton (LNP, 9.6%)</a>. They are all essential gains for the ALP if government is going to change hands. </p>
<p>Labor is also hoping to wind back the clock by capturing a swag of seats across Queensland’s south-eastern corner. This region, comprising Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, was almost entirely under the ALP’s control in the Beattie era, and formed the backbone of his landslide victories in 2001, 2004 and <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/rb/2006-07/07rb03.pdf">2006</a>. While it is extremely unlikely that Palaszczuk can match Beattie’s past efforts, Labor would need to dominate this highly populated region to claim an unlikely victory.</p>
<h2>7. How big will the swing be in far north Queensland?</h2>
<p>South-east Queensland alone is not enough to win government; regional Queensland is also crucial, and in this election there has been a fierce <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-battle-for-north-queensland-votes-1000-miles-from-brisbane-35903">battle for north Queensland votes</a>. </p>
<p>Labor is hoping to pick up a swag of seats in the north, particularly in the centres of Cairns and Townsville. The ALP’s shadow treasurer Curtis Pitt looks safe in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/mulg/">Mulgrave (even with only a 1.1% buffer)</a>. </p>
<p>The ALP also looks set to pick up another Cairns-based seat in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/cook/">Cook (LNP, 3.7%)</a> but it needs to pick up the seats of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/town/">Townsville (LNP, 4.8%)</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/thur/">Thuringowa (LNP, 6.7%)</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/barr/">Barron River (LNP, 9.5%)</a> if the ALP wants to inflict serious electoral damage on the LNP government. </p>
<h2>8. Which independent and minor party candidates will be elected?</h2>
<p>The fate of the independents and minor parties will provide an interesting side show from the main event on election night, though it’s not widely expected that they could hold the balance of power in Queensland’s one-house parliament.</p>
<p>There will be a few seats that will return to the major parties. The two former LNP-turned-Palmer United Party-turned-independents, Carl Judge and Alex Douglas, will lose their seats of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/yeer/">Yeerongpilly</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/gave/">Gaven</a> respectively.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/yeer/">Gladstone</a>, the retiring Liz Cunningham will likely be succeeded by the ALP candidate Glenn Butcher.</p>
<p>The Katter Australia Party should hold the seats of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/misa/">Mount Isa (KAP, 10.0%)</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/dalr/">Dalrymple (KAP, 15.2%)</a> making them two out of the three independents, along with Peter Wellington in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/nick/">Nicklin (4.9%)</a>.</p>
<p>One Nation’s Pauline Hanson has <a href="https://theconversation.com/hanson-gets-the-band-back-together-can-she-make-an-impact-34747">made another comeback</a>, running in the safe LNP seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/lock/">Lockyer</a>. Despite a preference swap <a href="http://www.qt.com.au/news/hanson-seals-deal-with-kap/2526116/">with the Katter’s Australian Party candidate</a>, it looks difficult for either of them to topple sitting LNP member Ian Rickuss.</p>
<h2>9. Will Abbott’s ‘knightmare’ and other federal issues be decisive?</h2>
<p>The impact of federal issues on state campaigns is notoriously hard to measure. After the Victorian election late last year, many state Liberals <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-30/federal-liberals-blamed-for-coalition-victorian-election-loss/5928934">blamed their federal counterparts for their loss</a>.</p>
<p>But as <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-blame-game-brings-more-nasty-static-for-end-of-abbotts-parliamentary-year-34841">Michelle Grattan wrote</a> about the Victorian result, it’s rarely that simple:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Voters were unimpressed with the state government’s performance and disgusted with its chaotic parliament. But the federal budget, with its array of nasties (many of which haven’t even been passed because of the Senate) and the general style of the federal government played right into Labor’s hands.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70473/original/image-20150129-22317-ir31gl.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70473/original/image-20150129-22317-ir31gl.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70473/original/image-20150129-22317-ir31gl.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70473/original/image-20150129-22317-ir31gl.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70473/original/image-20150129-22317-ir31gl.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70473/original/image-20150129-22317-ir31gl.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=695&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70473/original/image-20150129-22317-ir31gl.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=695&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70473/original/image-20150129-22317-ir31gl.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=695&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not the headline Tony Abbott would have been hoping for over his summer break.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Courier-Mail newspaper</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Less than a week after the January 31 election was called, The Courier-Mail newspaper dubbed Prime Minister Tony Abbott “ballot box poison”, after <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/the-abbott-government-is-proving-detrimental-to-campbell-newmans-election-hopes/story-fnr8vuu5-1227181581466">a poll showed significant voter dissatisfaction</a> with the federal government. </p>
<p>Abbott has been conspicuously <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-20/queensland-election-2015-tony-abbott-will-not-campaign-for-lnp/6027202">absent</a> for the entire campaign.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Labor has been working closely with unions across the state, including on linking federal and state issues. Australian Council of Trade Unions President <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/unions-prepare-to-fight-possible-ir-changes/6053634">Ged Kearney</a> has talked about campaigning in a number of marginal Queensland seats on the issue of penalty rates, which has become a hot topic again <a href="http://www.qt.com.au/news/Abbott-backs-the-cutting-of-penalty-rates-as-inqui/2522014/">thanks to the federal government</a>. That could have an impact, particularly in far north Queensland. </p>
<p>Abbott’s decision to knight Prince Philip, less than a week before polling day, was a “bolt from the blue” that Newman didn’t need, especially because his seat of Ashgrove is unusually <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/with-friends-like-this-who-needs-opposition/story-fnl00iw8-1227198809359">pro-republican for a Queensland electorate</a>.</p>
<p>Bill Shorten and swag of other federal Labor MPs have been heavily involved in helping their state colleagues. At the moment, the LNP holds 73 seats, and they are bracing to lose about 20 of those. If the Newman government performs worse than is expected – any less than 45 seats and they can’t hold office in their own right – expect both the state LNP and federal Labor to lay the blame squarely at Abbott’s feet.</p>
<p>But the truth is, Saturday’s result will shaped more by Queenslanders’ views on Newman’s leadership, on state issues such as asset sales, and on local matters, far more than it will be about foreign knights or Abbott’s absence.</p>
<h2>10. Will Ray Stevens repeat his chicken dance on election night?</h2>
<p>Newman laughed it off, but Gold Coast LNP MP <a href="http://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/mermaid-beach-mp-ray-stevens-has-youtube-meltdown-over-cableway-proposal-questions/story-fnr8vz6s-1227192309837">Ray Stevens’ “YouTube meltdown”</a> would have had some within the party fuming. </p>
<p>A reporter approached Stevens to ask about his controversial role as an investor and adviser on a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-27/ray-stevens-chicken-dance-protest-over-gold-coast-cableway/6047876">$100 million cable car project in a Gold Coast hinterland national park</a> – while still working and being paid as a state MP.</p>
<p>The state government is also <a href="http://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/skyride-to-be-built-by-2018-as-coast-mp-ray-stevens-announces-100m-hinterland-cableway-project/story-fnj94j0t-1227106989419">the main authority</a> needing to sign off on the proposal.</p>
<p>For months, Stevens has <a href="http://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/mermaid-beach-mp-ray-stevens-still-refuses-to-answer-cableway-questions-but-claims-he-is-accountable-and-transparent/story-fnr8vz6s-1227195238747">refused to answer key questions about his role</a>, and he tried to do that once again. Not realising he was being filmed, Stevens jiggled and flapped his arms at the journalist, in what quickly became a viral YouTube hit.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/093UhTuZmPA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The viral video of LNP MP Ray Stevens flapping his arms rather than answering a journalist’s questions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Stevens holds one of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/merm/">the safest seats</a> in parliament, with a giant 26% buffer. So it’s likely Dancing Ray will be returned – and he may even be in line <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-dancing-ray-stevens-could-join-cabinet-20150122-12vy8m.html">for a cabinet seat</a>.</p>
<p>Stevens’ victory celebrations may be worth watching on Saturday night. I hope he’s bought new dancing shoes.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35908/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Winther does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You know it’s an extraordinary election when a party holds 73 of the 89 seats in parliament thanks to a record-breaking victory just three years earlier – yet there’s talk of that party losing government…Todd Winther, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/368922015-01-29T19:34:31Z2015-01-29T19:34:31ZGrattan on Friday: Tony Abbott faces battle to avoid self-destruction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70540/original/image-20150129-22317-1vkxq14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Tony Abbott has become a national laughing stock after knighting Prince Philip.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Wayne King</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If Tony Abbott were risk-averse, he wouldn’t have scheduled a National Press Club appearance for Monday. Or perhaps it was just another Abbott blind spot.</p>
<p>Of course when Abbott signed up to turning up, he hadn’t become a national laughing stock via Prince Philip’s knighthood. But he did know he’d be appearing two days after an expected big anti-Liberal swing in Queensland.</p>
<p>Thanks to Abbott’s crazy self-indulgence, and the backlash from colleagues and community, Monday’s stakes have been raised dramatically. He’ll have to perform extremely well to get back to any sort of even keel before parliament starts – and that will take a minor miracle.</p>
<p>Abbott needs what the political trade calls an “announceable”, although it’s not likely it would change the conversation. He must give a convincing account of his 2015 plans. But while he can talk about jobs and families, he doesn’t yet have a detailed policy. He can’t guarantee to deliver his universities policy. And what can he say about the (next) budget, or tax?</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Abbott will be copping a blast from Queensland (where on Thursday Labor seemed confident of taking Premier Campbell Newman’s seat), and he’ll face tough questions. Such as: how much will he campaign in NSW? Liberal polling shows he’s a negative there but he can’t and won’t be banned, as he was in Queensland.</p>
<p>One seasoned Liberal observer predicts that on Monday Abbott will be “chewed up”. We’ll see.</p>
<p>Among those monitoring his performance will be some harsh judges at News Corp. Abbott this week received a massive bruising from his closest media allies in that organisation, which the Coalition regards as part of its “tribe”.</p>
<p>News Corp papers – The Daily Telegraph, The Sunday Telegraph and The Australian – have been constantly “fed” the news breaks by the government, briefed from the Prime Minister’s Office. Rupert Murdoch has been treated as a revered figure.</p>
<p>From the other side of the relationship, Abbott was a News Corp project, the leader to whom support was given and in whom high hopes were invested, the prime minister expected to prosecute a certain agenda.</p>
<p>But deep dismay has set in as the government flounders, Abbott struggles and becomes more unpopular, and the possibility looms that he could lose in 2016. Nor is there a prospect that he can or will deliver the desired, but politically impractical, agenda.</p>
<p>Abbott’s blunder over the knighthood has proved the last straw.</p>
<p>Murdoch this week called for Abbott’s chief of staff, Peta Credlin, to quit (one political observer suggested it would have been better if Rupert had “made her an offer she couldn’t refuse”).</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"560236375912742912"}"></div></p>
<p>News Corp’s most influential conservative columnists have been feral. Such attacks are especially harmful because they’re from within the tribe. When Andrew Bolt <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-29/ministers-back-pm-in-wake-of-andrew-bolts-knighthood-criticism/6053446">said</a> on Wednesday the Philip decision was “so damaging that it could be fatal”, his comments were treated by other media as a major news item.</p>
<p>Ministers have had to defend Abbott over the indefensible (while distancing themselves from the knighthood decision) as well as elevate the beleaguered Credlin to near political sainthood.</p>
<p>The week’s most innovative line <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4170842.htm">came from Barnaby Joyce</a>, who declared that “sometimes it’s the mistakes that prove the authenticity of the person”. That’s a hell of a stretch to find a silver lining.</p>
<p>Education Minister Christopher Pyne <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/01/28/abbott-opens-door-to-consult-more.html">insisted</a> the Coalition couldn’t have made it into government without Credlin, who “is absolutely intrinsic to our success” – which doesn’t say much for the efforts of the rest of them.</p>
<p>The fevered atmosphere makes it hard to know precisely where Abbott will be left when the story moves on. He’s lost an enormous amount of skin in a startling act of self-harm.</p>
<p>Talk is easy and there’s much of that. One Liberal MP says: “There’s a lot of undirected frustration and anger and disillusionment but it’s not heading in a particular direction.”</p>
<p>A party man observes: “No-one is out to knife him – there is no program to kill him,” adding that Abbott is “his own worst enemy”.</p>
<p>Just how bad an enemy to himself will Abbott prove to be? Before Christmas, he promised a better government this year. In the new year he’s been ringing around listening to backbenchers. But now once again he’s shown a lack of judgement and discipline, to say nothing of an instinct for self-preservation.</p>
<p>A Tuesday ReachTEL poll <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbotts-ratings-slump-following-knightmare-affair-36840">found</a> 72% opposed the knighting of Prince Philip, and showed a dive in Abbott’s approval. That’s likely to be just the start of a polling nightmare.</p>
<p>The risk for Abbott is that he is dragged into a downward spiral from which he can’t recover. Some Liberals are saying his leadership is terminal.</p>
<p>It would be a huge thing for the Liberals to replace him. There’d be a big question around process – would there be a knock-down Labor-style fight? Not many leaders depart in the gentlemanly style of Ted Baillieu. </p>
<p>And the party would have to be pretty confident it would get the successor who could deliver the goods. Funny things can happen in Liberal ballots if there are multiple contenders.</p>
<p>There is chatter about Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop, who enjoy good polling support. They have grown closer recently. But if they teamed up, would it be Turnbull-Bishop or Bishop-Turnbull?</p>
<p>This week you have to wonder whether what’s happening in the government is real life or the plot for another Jessica Rudd novel.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36892/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If Tony Abbott were risk-averse, he wouldn’t have scheduled a National Press Club appearance for Monday. Or perhaps it was just another Abbott blind spot. Of course when Abbott signed up to turning up…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/368832015-01-29T04:03:07Z2015-01-29T04:03:07ZCan Newman still be Queensland premier if he loses his seat?<p>If the Liberal National Party wins the Queensland election on Saturday, but its leader, Campbell Newman, loses his seat of Ashgrove, can he remain premier? This may be the question vexing minds on Sunday morning. The answer is not as clear as it might have been, due to a failure to make proposed constitutional amendments in 2005.</p>
<h2>No change in premier until there is a vacancy</h2>
<p>Although journalists often refer to a change in premier on election night, there is in fact no change of premier until there is a vacancy to fill. The office of premier will only be vacated if Campbell Newman resigns to the Governor or – in exceptional circumstances – is dismissed from office. </p>
<p>Newman losing his seat at the election would not automatically vacate his office as premier. Unlike in many South Pacific countries, where the prime minister is immediately disqualified from holding office if he or she ceases to hold a seat in the lower house, this is not the case in Australia. </p>
<p>For example, John Howard remained as prime minister, despite having lost his seat at the federal election on November 24, 2007. Howard continued in office, in a caretaker capacity, until his resignation took effect when Kevin Rudd was sworn in on December 3, 2007.</p>
<h2>Does the Queensland Constitution require the premier to be a member of parliament?</h2>
<p>There is no express provision in the Queensland Constitution that requires the premier to be a member of parliament. <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/qld/consol_act/coq2001288/s43.html">Section 43(2)</a> of the Queensland Constitution states that the “Governor, by commission, may appoint a person as a Minister of State”. It does not require that this person be a member of parliament.</p>
<p>This can be contrasted with <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/qld/consol_act/coq2001288/s46.html">Section 46</a>, which states that the Governor may appoint a member to act as a minister when a minister is absent. The distinction appears to be deliberate and is presumably intended to permit flexibility. For example, if the premier automatically lost office upon ceasing to be a member of parliament, this would occur every time parliament was dissolved and there would be no premier during the campaign. </p>
<p>This is why constitutions that require ministers to be members tend to include a grace period to accommodate timing problems. <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s64.html">Section 64</a> of the Commonwealth Constitution states that “no Minister of State shall hold office for a longer period than three months unless he is or becomes a senator or a member of the House of Representatives”. </p>
<p>South Australia and Victoria also give three months for a minister to become a member, while New Zealand gives a shorter period. </p>
<p>In 2005, Queensland’s Beattie Labor government introduced a <a href="https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/Bills/51PDF/2005/ConstOLAB05.pdf">bill</a> that would have required the premier and other ministers to be members of parliament, subject to a 90-day grace period. The bill followed recommendations from the Legal, Constitutional and Administrative Review Committee of the Queensland Parliament that such a provision be inserted. The <a href="http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/Committees/LJSC/2000/qld-cont-specific-content-issues/Report-36.pdf#xml=http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/internetsearch/isysquery/4481f18e-7c2c-49c3-83b9-5b281d7ac208/6/hilite/">committee accepted</a> that it was a conventional rule and a “key aspect of Queensland’s constitutional system that ministers must be members of the Legislative Assembly”. </p>
<p>However, the bill was left to lapse at the 2006 election and was never enacted.</p>
<h2>If the Constitution says nothing, could Newman remain premier without a seat?</h2>
<p>In the absence of an express requirement, there remains a strong constitutional implication that ministers must be members of parliament. </p>
<p>The Commonwealth and state constitutions are all founded on the principle of “responsible government” – that the government is formed from, and is responsible to, the parliament. It would therefore be unconstitutional in principle for a premier to remain in office in the long term without a seat in the parliament. If challenged, there is a fair likelihood that a court would also find a legal reason why it was unconstitutional.</p>
<p>In the short term, however, it would be possible for a premier to remain in office, without holding a seat, if his or her government held the confidence of the lower house and the premier was seeking election in a by-election. This assumes that a compliant MP would resign to permit Newman to run for his or her seat and that Newman was prepared to do so. But that’s something Newman <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/national/2014/10/04/qld-premier-newman-rules-out-shift-to-moggill.html">ruled out doing late last year</a>, and <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-premiers-spokesman-rules-out-seat-swap-20150106-12iudt.html">again early in this election campaign</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70409/original/image-20150129-22325-1ajqppv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70409/original/image-20150129-22325-1ajqppv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70409/original/image-20150129-22325-1ajqppv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=772&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70409/original/image-20150129-22325-1ajqppv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=772&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70409/original/image-20150129-22325-1ajqppv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=772&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70409/original/image-20150129-22325-1ajqppv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70409/original/image-20150129-22325-1ajqppv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70409/original/image-20150129-22325-1ajqppv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Quebec’s longest-serving premier, Robert Bourassa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Thomas Kierans/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A defeated leader parachuting into a safe seat is not unknown in other countries with similar constitutional conventions. For example, in Quebec in 1985, the Liberal Party leader, <a href="http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/robert-bourassa/">Robert Bourassa</a>, lost his seat in an election while his party won government. He was still sworn in as premier and then won a by-election for a safe seat after one of his government colleagues resigned to make way for him.</p>
<p>In Queensland, if the premier were re-elected to the parliament within the 90-day period acceptable in other jurisdictions, it would be likely to be regarded as constitutionally acceptable. </p>
<p>The real question would be whether it would be politically acceptable. Once a party leader has been rejected by the people of his or her own electorate, there is a real question as to whether he or she is still publicly acceptable as premier. There may also be a strong political expectation that he would resign as premier, especially if he had given a prior commitment to do so.</p>
<p>Ultimately, while the constitutional constraints are important, the political constraints are most likely to rule the day.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Twomey receives funding from the ARC and occasionally does consultancy works for governments and inter-governmental bodies.</span></em></p>If the Liberal National Party wins the Queensland election on Saturday, but its leader, Campbell Newman, loses his seat of Ashgrove, can he remain premier? This may be the question vexing minds on Sunday…Anne Twomey, Professor of Constitutional Law, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/363452015-01-28T19:23:21Z2015-01-28T19:23:21ZThe true state of Queensland debt<p>How much debt is Queensland really in? How much of that debt can past Labor governments bear responsibility for, and has the current Liberal National government cut or added to it? And how does Queensland’s debt compare, both within Australia and up against other countries?</p>
<p>This is an article for anyone wanting to know the answers to those questions and more – including the many readers who requested an explanation on the state’s debt after my recent article on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-true-state-of-queenslands-economy-without-the-spin-35959">Queensland’s economy</a>.</p>
<p>For those interested in the technicalities of where I got my data from, and why I chose to look at the ratio of debt to Gross State Product, that’s all explained in notes at the end of this article. </p>
<p>But for everyone else, let’s move straight to what the data shows.</p>
<h2>How does Queensland’s debt compare?</h2>
<p>Table 1 below reports the ratio of debt to Gross State Product (GSP) in percentage terms for Australian states and territories over the last 10 years.</p>
<p>As a reference, the bottom of the table also reports the ratio of debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in selected countries of the world. That data refers to general government debt only, and it’s sourced from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What’s clear from that table is that the debt-to-GSP ratio in Queensland has increased considerably since 2006-07, and that most of this increase occurred under Anna Bligh’s Labor governments.</p>
<p>And in comparison to other states, Queensland now has the highest debt-to-GSP ratio.</p>
<p>However, this ratio remains relatively low in comparison to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-g20-economies-explained-in-12-charts-33887">other G20 countries</a>, including the Australian Commonwealth.</p>
<p>The ratio is also significantly lower than 90%, which some previous studies have identified as the level above which long-term growth is reduced. (You can read more in these <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/growth_in_time_debt_aer.pdf">2010</a> and <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/w18015.pdf">2012</a> papers from Reinhart and Rogoff.)</p>
<p>But not everyone agrees on that 90% threshold; <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2014/wp1434.pdf">other studies</a> have failed to identify any threshold and conclude that there is no relationship between debt and growth.</p>
<p>Another important point is that the 90% threshold is estimated from cross-country data on national or federal debt. The threshold at state level might be lower than 90% – but no conclusive estimates are yet available in the literature.</p>
<p>In other words, working out how much debt Queensland has is the simple part; deciding whether that debt is too high, about right, or quite low, remains a much more subjective matter.</p>
<h2>Is all debt bad?</h2>
<p>So perhaps a simple comparison of debt ratios is not the best way to assess the extent of the problem. </p>
<p>In fact, debt is not always bad and the objective of fiscal policy cannot simply be the minimisation of debt levels.</p>
<p>That’s not a sentiment you’re likely to hear either Queensland Premier Campbell Newman or Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk express between now and Saturday’s polling day. Yet that is something we should all be able to agree on.</p>
<p>If a government borrows to finance investment and/or to help the economy overcome a bad cyclical contraction, then a certain level of debt is not just acceptable, it’s arguably desirable.</p>
<p>In the end, debt is a tool that governments should use to achieve fundamental goals like growth and welfare. The fact that in Queensland debt is higher than, say, New South Wales is not, in itself, enough to conclude that Queensland has a debt problem.</p>
<p>The more relevant question for us to consider is then whether the debt level is sustainable or not. And that means looking at whether or not the debt-to-GSP ratio is likely to climb too rapidly in future.</p>
<h2>You can’t evaluate debt without growth</h2>
<p>In this regard, three factors determine the evolution of the debt-to-GSP ratio: the interest paid on the existing stock of debt, the rate of GSP growth, and the primary balance (which is the budget balance after the government has made its interest payment).</p>
<p>If the primary balance is zero (that is, revenues are equal to expenditures after accounting for the interest payment), then debt is sustainable as long as the rate of growth is not smaller than the interest rate on debt.</p>
<p>When growth is higher than the interest rate, then the government can even run a limited primary deficit and debt would still be sustainable.</p>
<p>A numerical example with numbers that approximate the current situation of Queensland might help understand the importance of economic growth for the purpose of sustainability.</p>
<p>Given an initial debt-to- GSP ratio of 25% and a nominal interest rate of 5.5%, a nominal growth rate of 7.5% is enough to maintain the debt-to-GSP ratio, constant even with a primary deficit of 2%.</p>
<p>With inflation at, say 3%, a nominal growth of 7.5% is equal to a real growth rate of 4.5%, which incidentally is very close to the average annual real growth rate in Queensland over the period June 1991 to June 2012.</p>
<p>So, more than an issue of reducing the absolute level of borrowing, sustainability is a matter of economic growth. An economy that grows is an economy that can sustain its debt.</p>
<h2>Where could Queensland debt end up?</h2>
<p>Let’s consider a few different scenarios to show how much different government approaches would cut Queensland’s debt.</p>
<p>Suppose that economic and fiscal conditions – that is, the growth rate, interest rate and primary balance – in Queensland over the next 10 years were the same as it has been under the current LNP government. Where would debt be by 2023-24? The answer is 58% of GSP.</p>
<p>If we repeat the exercise using the economic and fiscal conditions that occurred under the first of the two Bligh governments, then the answer would be 49%. With the conditions of the second Bligh’s government, the debt-to-GSP ratio would be higher, at 62%.</p>
<p>A government that was able to eliminate the primary deficit, but delivered the same rate of growth as the Newman government, would still produce a debt-to-GSP ratio of 51% by 2023-24.</p>
<p>The chart below shows the projected debt trajectories under all those different scenarios, starting from the current level of debt.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bligh I – meaning the first term of the Bligh Labor government – was characterised by a higher primary deficit and interest rate than Newman, but the growth rate was also significantly higher. It is indeed this higher growth rate that in the simulation moderates the increase in the debt-to-GSP ratio.</p>
<p>In fact, the chart shows that in terms of stabilising the debt-to-GSP ratio it is better to have a limited primary deficit and grow fast than to have zero primary deficit and grow slowly.</p>
<p>This does not mean that the Queensland government (or any other government) should permanently run a deficit. Quite the contrary: the best way to avoid a debt problem is to alternate deficits in time of recession with surpluses in time of expansion.</p>
<p>However, it does mean that in the pursuit of debt stabilisation, a government should not make choices that cause sharp fiscal restrictions when the economic outlook is fragile or that compromise the state’s long-term growth potential.</p>
<p><em><strong>Technical notes</strong></em></p>
<p><em>To measure debt levels, I primarily used data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 55120.</em></p>
<p><em>The latest release of this data was in 2014 and the figures are reported up until fiscal year 2012-13. For Queensland (and a few other states), the data for 2009-10 and 2010-11 are not reported. For these years, I referred to the Mid-Fiscal Year Review (various years). I also used those Mid-Fiscal Year Reviews to extend the data to 2013-14.</em></p>
<p><em>The aggregate I considered was the “Borrowing” of the Non-Financial Public Sector, which includes the General Government and Non-Financial Public Corporations.</em></p>
<p><em>Then I scaled debt data to Gross State Product (GSP). In some analyses, debt is scaled to a variable like tax revenues, but this is not entirely appropriate as borrowing is a stock measure, while tax revenues is a flow measure. Moreover, Gross State Product is the scaling factor commonly adopted in the academic and professional discussion on debt.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the continuous linear piecewise model and its macroeconomic applications.</span></em></p>How much debt is Queensland really in? How much of that debt can past Labor governments bear responsibility for, and has the current Liberal National government cut or added to it? And how does Queensland’s…Fabrizio Carmignani, Professor, Griffith Business School , Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/363052015-01-27T01:29:56Z2015-01-27T01:29:56ZWhat unemployment figures really say about Queensland<p>Queensland unemployment recently plummeted – or did it? </p>
<p>Whether you’re a Queenslander getting ready to vote in the January 31 state election, or simply someone interested in employment trends in Australia, Queensland provides a great case study of which jobs figures you should be paying the most attention to.</p>
<h2>Why some jobs figures grab the headlines</h2>
<p>Politicians love making promises about jobs, even though they’re hard to deliver. But they also know they risk a backlash when unemployment rises. So they obsess about whether monthly job figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show them in a good or poor light. Whatever the latest statistics, governments and oppositions are sure to try to apply the best or worst possible spin.</p>
<p>Sifting through that spin isn’t easy. And journalists often don’t help by <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/employment-figures-make-bad-reading-for-labor-as-lnp-gets-boost-from-drop-in-jobless-rate/story-fnr8vuu5-1227186424342">focusing on the volatile and unpredictable “seasonally adjusted” estimates</a>, at the expense of <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-seasonally-adjusted-unemployment-rate-drops-20150115-12qs2i.html">the more boring “trend”</a>. More clicks, and more attention, flow from reporting the bigger swings of the seasonally adjusted numbers. </p>
<p>That’s OK if both figures show the same thing. But often they don’t – and Queensland has just seen a stark example of that during the state election campaign.</p>
<h2>Seasons and trends</h2>
<p>Employment and unemployment follow <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Time+Series+Analysis:+The+Basics#WHAT%20ARE%20SEASONAL%20EFFECTS%3F">seasonal patterns</a>. Fruit pickers get work in fruit season. School leavers look for work every summer. Each month follows a pattern of regular rises or falls in jobs or joblessness.</p>
<p>The ABS figures come from a monthly household survey. Like all surveys, they are subject to random <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/Home/What+is+a+Standard+Error+and+Relative+Standard+Error,+Reliability+of+estimates+for+Labour+Force+data">sampling error</a>: even without any underlying change, a different survey will give you (sometimes very) different results.</p>
<p>“Seasonally adjusted” figures from ABS overcome the first of those problems, but not the second. They stop you getting surprised by job-seekers in December. But you still can – and <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/surprise-drop-in-unemployment-rate-eases-pressure-on-rba-20150115-12qors.html">journalists</a> often do – get <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-10/unemployment-drops-in-march-as-18000-jobs-added/5380672">surprised</a> by the monthly volatility in job figures. </p>
<p>The trend estimates overcome that problem, by smoothing out random fluctuations in “seasonally adjusted” figures. They have some limitations – for example, they can be <a href="http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/australias-unemployment-rate-is-52.html">slow in showing “turning points”</a>. </p>
<p>But for assessing the performance of an economy over time, they’re definitely what you’d rely upon. Back in 2013, the Queensland Treasurer rightly referred to trend estimates as <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2013/6/13/trend-unemployment-remains-steady">“more reliable”</a>. </p>
<p>As statisticians often say, <a href="http://www.seasonaladjustment.com/trend/">“the trend is your friend”</a>. And the smaller the economy, the larger the relative variation in seasonally adjusted estimates. So it’s even more important to focus on the trend for state than national economies.</p>
<h2>Unemployment in Queensland</h2>
<p>What do the numbers show? In <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6202.0Main+Features1Dec%202014?OpenDocument">December 2014</a>, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Queensland was 6.1% – fully 0.7 points down from 6.8% a month earlier. Yet two months before that it was only 6.3%. And 6.6% a month before that.</p>
<p>Does it really make sense that the underlying unemployment situation would bounce around so quickly? Not really. </p>
<p>Now look at the trend: 6.6% in December 2014, 6.6% a month earlier, and 6.6% two months before that – a much clearer indication of where the state labour market is at. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69304/original/image-20150118-5182-1o63lf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69304/original/image-20150118-5182-1o63lf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69304/original/image-20150118-5182-1o63lf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69304/original/image-20150118-5182-1o63lf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69304/original/image-20150118-5182-1o63lf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69304/original/image-20150118-5182-1o63lf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69304/original/image-20150118-5182-1o63lf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Source: ABS Cat No 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia; Table 06. Labour force status by Sex - Queensland - Trend, Seasonally adjusted and Original (released 15/1/15)</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That trend unemployment figure for Queensland is up from 5.5% in March 2012. It is above the national average and the rates for many other states, and just 0.2 percentage points below the highest (Tasmania, on 6.8%). On the volatile seasonally adjusted figures, Queensland was much better than South Australia in December. But on trend, it was worse. </p>
<h2>Employment figures to watch</h2>
<p>However, there is much more to a labour market than the unemployment rate. That’s because it can be distorted by changes in beliefs about the benefits of job search. If people think there’s no hope of finding a job, they stop “actively” looking for work (the ABS has fairly strict criteria for what that means), and the unemployment rate goes down.</p>
<p>This doesn’t mean the ABS fudges or deliberately understates unemployment. It follows standard international practice, rigorously and competently. This is just one of those peculiarities of labour market measurement.</p>
<p>So increasingly, <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/18/news/economy/other-unemployment-rate/index.html">economists</a> and bodies like the <a href="http://www.oecd.org/education/skills-beyond-school/48630772.pdf">OECD</a> are also focusing on the “employment rate”. That means the number of employed people as a proportion of the working-age population. The higher it is, the better. It is unaffected by changes in people’s beliefs about job-seeking. </p>
<p>It’s more useful than just looking at the number of jobs, because the population in most places increases anyway, so you need some job growth just to stop a rise in joblessness.</p>
<p>The trend employment rate in Queensland in December 2014 was 60.9%. This was slightly above the national average, as it has been since 1991.</p>
<p>But, notably, it is down from 63.1% in March 2012. The employment rate in Queensland is the lowest in more than 10 years. The fall in Queensland was well above the national fall and the equal worst of any state or territory over that period (alongside South Australia).</p>
<p>One reason is the drop in full-time employment. In trend terms, this was 8,100 (about 0.5%) lower in Queensland in December 2014 than in March 2012. (Part-time employment grew by 8%.)</p>
<p>Queensland was the only state to experience a fall in full-time employment over that period. Its full-time employment rate (full-time jobs divided by the working-age population) fell by more than any other state.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69295/original/image-20150117-5165-1ebntfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69295/original/image-20150117-5165-1ebntfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69295/original/image-20150117-5165-1ebntfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69295/original/image-20150117-5165-1ebntfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69295/original/image-20150117-5165-1ebntfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69295/original/image-20150117-5165-1ebntfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69295/original/image-20150117-5165-1ebntfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Source: ABS Cat No 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia; Tables 04 to 09. Labour force status by Sex - various states - Trend, Seasonally adjusted and Original, December 2014 (released 15/1/15)</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another, less commonly used, indicator of labour market changes is total hours worked. In December 2014 this was 1.5% lower in Queensland than it had been in March 2012. All other states, apart from South Australia, showed an increase over this time. Queensland was the only state where hours worked dropped over the year to December 2014. </p>
<p>While the end of the mining boom is sometimes blamed for the current state of the Queensland labour market, it is worth noting that mining is one of the six industries in which jobs grew <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/productsbyCatalogue/35006594EB1126B2CA257132000F9189?OpenDocument">over the year to November 2014</a>. (Employment fell in 11 industries. This is based on original data as the ABS provides no trend industry estimates.) The deterioration in the labour market is broadly based.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, labour markets have supply and demand sides. On the supply side, the Queensland population grew by 1.9% last year, and that is likely to continue. On the demand side, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyCatalogue/542E47978ED4A955CA2572AC0018067C?OpenDocument">job vacancies </a> were 6% lower in November 2014 than a year earlier in Queensland – the only state with a fall over this period. This combination predicts further falls in the employment rate, which would be matched by rising unemployment unless more people give up actively looking for work.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69296/original/image-20150117-5198-1yl3xx0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69296/original/image-20150117-5198-1yl3xx0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69296/original/image-20150117-5198-1yl3xx0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69296/original/image-20150117-5198-1yl3xx0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69296/original/image-20150117-5198-1yl3xx0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69296/original/image-20150117-5198-1yl3xx0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69296/original/image-20150117-5198-1yl3xx0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Source: ABS Cat No 6354.0 Job Vacancies, Australia; Table 1. Job Vacancies, States and Territories (‘000) (year to November 2014, original estimate)(released 14/1/15); ABS Cat No 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia; Tables 04 to 09. Labour force status by Sex - various states - Trend, Seasonally adjusted and Original, December 2014 (year to December 2014, trend estimate) (released 15/1/15)</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Jobs targets</h2>
<p>All this is very different to Campbell Newman’s promise in January 2012 of <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/newman-pledges-to-slash-state-job-rate/story-fnbt5t29-1226245932152">420,000 new jobs over six years and to get Queensland’s unemployment down to 4%</a>. Employment has instead grown by only 45,000, well below the rate of population growth or the minimum needed to stop unemployment from rising. </p>
<p>But I’ve never understood why people believe job growth promises from state politicians anyway. The truth is, federal factors are the biggest single influence on a state economy, though state governments certainly make a difference. </p>
<p>Regardless, jobs targets remain a state election staple from both major parties. Former Labor premier <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/state-election-2012/newman-sees-blighs-jobs-target-and-raises-it-20120116-1q3we.html">Anna Bligh promised jobs</a> for “100,000 breadwinners in 100,000 Queensland homes”. It turned out that target included part-time jobs, prompting Bligh’s Liberal National Party opponents to criticise her spin. Ironically, <em>all</em> the net job growth since the LNP came to office has been in part-time work.</p>
<p>Whether it’s 100,000 or 420,000, one thing is certain: while setting a target is easy, if it isn’t met politicians simply point to circumstances “beyond our control”. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t hold all sides of politics accountable for what they promise.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36305/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>As a university employee, David Peetz has undertaken research over many years with occasional financial support from governments from both sides of politics, employers and unions. His most recent consultancy was for the New Zealand government. At present he is involved in several Australian Research Council-funded and approved projects which included contributions from the employer body Universities Australia, the superannuation fund Unisuper, the National Tertiary Education Union and the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union. The projects do not concern the subject matter of this article. He is a research associate of the T J Ryan Foundation in Brisbane and the New Zealand Work Research Institute in Auckland, a co-researcher of the Inter-University Centre for Research on Globalisation and Work (CRIMT) based in Quebec, and a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia.</span></em></p>Queensland unemployment recently plummeted – or did it? Whether you’re a Queenslander getting ready to vote in the January 31 state election, or simply someone interested in employment trends in Australia…David Peetz, Professor of Employment Relations, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/361462015-01-26T19:29:40Z2015-01-26T19:29:40ZInside Operation Boring, the LNP’s strategy to reclaim Queensland<p>If Queensland’s Liberal National Party reclaims government at this Saturday’s election, you can be sure the politicians will be quick to take the credit. But behind the scenes, much of the credit for the LNP’s political revival belongs to the strategists driving a remarkable rebranding strategy, dubbed “Operation Boring”.</p>
<p>It’s been all about keeping the government and Premier Campbell Newman on message and out of unnecessary fights – though in recent days, that strategy has seemed to waver.</p>
<p>Just before the long weekend, there was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-23/campbell-newman-and-jeff-seeney-suing-alan-jones-for-defamation/6041274">a flurry of lawsuits against broadcaster Alan Jones</a>, followed up by <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-lnp-claims-it-has-refunded-bikie-stunt-donations-20150125-12xp04.html">changing claims about bikie gang donations</a>. But by Australia Day, Operation Boring was so clearly <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-campbell-newman-tightlipped-on-anything-but-strong-plan-20150126-12y9eg.html">back in force again</a> that <a href="https://twitter.com/bkjabour/status/559515260462186499">reporters complained</a> about not getting any questions answered.</p>
<p>This is the story of what first prompted such an abrupt change in governing style in Australia’s third-biggest state; the people behind that change; and how crucial Operation Boring has been in reducing the LNP’s chance of becoming a one-term government.</p>
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<h2>From picking fights to playing it safe</h2>
<p>Only six months ago, suburban Brisbane voters delivered the Newman government a beating that would make a maxillofacial surgeon cringe.</p>
<p>The July 2014 by-election was brought on by Brisbane medico Chris Davis quitting the LNP and politics after <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/chris-davis-quits-as-member-for-stafford-after-lnp-ructions/story-fnihsrf2-1226928726078">Newman sacked him</a> as assistant health minister for <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-23/chris-davis-speaks-out-on-what-caused-him-to-resign/5475186">speaking out about government policies</a>. In response, voters in the inner northern seat of Stafford delivered a 19.1% swing against the Liberal National government. </p>
<p>Even by the robust standards of Queensland politics, this was a severe thumping. The LNP defeat saw the election of another doctor, maxillofacial surgeon and Labor candidate Anthony Lyman, who had made his name as a campaigner against booze-fuelled violence in the city.</p>
<p>The smashing defeat came only months after another by-election loss in late March in the bayside seat of Redcliffe, following the resignation of the LNP’s Scott Driscoll over <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-23/driscoll-in-court-on-fraud-charges/5835426">allegations of multiple fraud offences</a> (that case is <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/former-qld-mp-back-in-court-for-fraud/story-e6frfku9-1227132522534">still before the courts</a>).</p>
<p>The swing against the LNP there was 14.4%. Of the message sent by voters, Newman said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We understand. That many of you felt that perhaps we haven’t listened enough, that we perhaps moved too quickly, that we haven’t consulted you. We hear it, we acknowledge it and we will do things differently as we go forward.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Yet he didn’t. Within weeks of the Redcliffe loss, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/newman-makes-it-harder-for-himself/story-e6frgd0x-1226881317335">Jamie Walker observed</a> in The Australian:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Newman needs to get on message, and quickly. Instead of talking about bikies or feuding with judges, he needs to put the state budget Nicholls is framing front and centre, and tell his strutting Attorney-General, Jarrod Bleijie, to put a sock in it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>When the voters of Stafford sent the same message, only louder, it finally triggered a major shift in strategy, which looks likely to help re-elect the Newman government on January 31.</p>
<p>The Monday after the Stafford defeat, Newman called a media conference on a school oval in Brisbane’s southern outskirts, surrounded by his cabinet colleagues. </p>
<p>Amid lots of foot shuffling, and a too obvious eagerness by cabinet members to be at the back of the pack, Newman told the assembled hacks: “I’m sorry today if we have done things that have upset people.” He announced several largely cosmetic changes designed to appease critics of his approach to the judiciary and outlaw motorcycle gangs.</p>
<p>With the 2015 election looming, the LNP government needed some expert help – and it knew where to get it.</p>
<h2>Conservative campaign wizards</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.crosbytextor.com/">Crosby Textor</a> are campaign strategists who drove the Queensland LNP’s smashing, historic win in 2012. </p>
<p>It was a victory that reduced Labor to just seven seats and decapitated a generation of future leaders, some of whom have returned in 2015 to run in safer seats.</p>
<p>Founded in 2002 by Australians Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor, the now global strategy consultants have since run hundreds of other campaigns worldwide, boasting that “there is not an inhabited continent where they haven’t worked”. As a profile of pollster Textor in <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/people/svengali-of-spin-20140502-37csk.html">the Good Weekend magazine last year</a> noted:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The pair has advised New Zealand Prime Minister John Key and British Prime Minister David Cameron as well as Tony Abbott. They have operated in Fiji, Zimbabwe (where wealthy US donors quietly funded their work in support of the Movement for Democratic Change), the Middle East, North Africa and South-East Asia.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.crosbytextor.com/lynton-crosby-uk/">Crosby</a>, a former federal director of the Liberal Party, is based in London, where the UK media calls him <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/10811700/General-election-2015-the-strategists-Lynton-Crosby-Conservatives.html">“The Wizard of Oz”</a>.</p>
<p>The Australian end of the business is run by Textor, who is usually based in Sydney but has <a href="http://www.afr.com/Blogs/Rear%20Window#3a1ee9d6-a060-11e4-a22d-ece98b02ea90">been in Brisbane</a> helping the LNP election campaign.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.crosbytextor.com/mark-textor/">Textor is a Territorian</a>, who cut his teeth polling for the Country Liberal Party in the late 1980s. His forte is research and he understands the idiosyncracies of Queensland’s political culture.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JAjN8YBK-ks?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The LNP’s main slogan through the campaign has been ‘Strong Team. Strong Plan. Stronger Queensland’.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How Operation Boring changed the government</h2>
<p>The first step was to remove from public gaze those ministers who were seen as having offended public sensibilities: notably, Newman’s “strutting Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie”, as he was described so colourfully <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/newman-makes-it-harder-for-himself/story-e6frgd0x-1226881317335">in The Australian newspaper</a>. Blejie’s disappearance from the media brought jokes in the Twittersphere about Harold Holt and North Korea. </p>
<p>Others put into isolation included Police Minister Jack Dempsey and – perhaps less effectively – Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney. As opposition leader, Seeney made way for Newman, so to some degree he can do what he likes, much to the chagrin of Treasurer Tim Nicholls. </p>
<p>Newman himself became <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/2014-queensland-political-winners-and-losers-20141230-12fqgk.html">more constrained and conciliatory</a> in his public language.</p>
<p>One of the ground rules of Operation Boring was that Newman had to curb his naturally combative personal style (glimpsed again <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/queensland-election-campaign-heats-up/story-e6frfku9-1227195028338">in recent days</a>). Newman’s greatest campaign asset, his wife Lisa, had refused to participate in the political process after the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tApO6cXe8VI">disgraceful ALP smear campaign of 2012</a>. She has since returned to a prominent role, particularly in his electorate of Ashgrove.</p>
<p>Nicholls was a key player in getting Crosby Textor to take a tough line with Newman. Newman’s own media outfit has been ineffective. His communication chief was former director of news at Nine Queensland, Lee Anderson. This year former ABC Queensland reporter on both politics and sport, Ian Eckerley, moved from Health Minister Lawrence Springborg’s office to support Newman.</p>
<p>The new strategy also looked for ways to celebrate the government’s areas of achievement, as well as its high achievers.</p>
<p>Among the winners have been Transport Minister Scott Emerson, Education Minister John-Paul Langbroek, Arts, Science and IT minister Ian Walker, along with Treasurer Nicholls. Each of them is media-savvy, tertiary-educated and from comparatively well-off urban electorates (Indooroopilly, Surfers Paradise, Mansfield and Clayfield); all have won more clear air to showcase their policy achievements.</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">“Operation Boring” has been widely discussed in the 2015 campaign, including in this Queensland Council of Unions’ TV ad.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Has the strategy worked?</h2>
<p>Since late last year, polling has shown the LNP staging a comeback. While many voters many not have liked everything the government has done, more have been convinced that the LNP at least deserves a second term. </p>
<p>“Operation Boring is working,” <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/that-thinking-feeling/operation-boring-leading-to-surprise-comeback-for-campbell-20141029-11du64.html">one senior LNP member</a> told The Brisbane Times late last year. “It’s working for Campbell Newman and for us.”</p>
<p>It’s not the only factor at work. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/palmer-misses-the-party-as-pups-struggle-to-be-heard-in-queensland-35912">collapse in support for Clive Palmer</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-28/palmer-united-party-announces-queensland-leader/5990410">the loss of his state Palmer United Party MPs</a> have also helped. </p>
<p>But Newman’s personal standing with the electorate has improved only marginally. He has remained on the wrong side of a majority on first preferences in Ashgrove since mid-2012.</p>
<p>Unless something extraordinary happens, the LNP government will be returned and Operation Boring will be notched up as another Crosby Textor success.</p>
<p>The main question remaining is Newman’s own fate, and who would replace him <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-queenslands-unofficial-premiers-in-waiting-35952">if he can’t survive in Ashgrove</a>. Would it be the Country Party old guard of Springborg or Seeney? Or one of the shining stars of Operation Boring: Nicholls, Emerson, Langbroek or Walker?</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p>
<p><br><em>Editor’s note: After a reader’s query, the author updated this link: “…"after the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tApO6cXe8VI">disgraceful ALP smear campaign of 2012</a>”.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36146/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Harrison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If Queensland’s Liberal National Party reclaims government at this Saturday’s election, you can be sure the politicians will be quick to take the credit. But behind the scenes, much of the credit for the…John Harrison, Senior Lecturer, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/358922015-01-19T19:26:14Z2015-01-19T19:26:14ZThe revealing facts on bikie laws and crime in Queensland<p>Queensland’s Liberal National government has made <a href="http://qld.lnp.org.au/more-police-resources-keep-queenslanders-safe/">law and order</a> – particularly its <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/bikies-back-on-queensland-agenda--this-time-in-governments-favour-20150105-12hziz.html">anti-bikie laws</a> – a key part of its re-election pitch. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69349/original/image-20150119-2742-vlh8og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69349/original/image-20150119-2742-vlh8og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69349/original/image-20150119-2742-vlh8og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69349/original/image-20150119-2742-vlh8og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69349/original/image-20150119-2742-vlh8og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69349/original/image-20150119-2742-vlh8og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=619&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69349/original/image-20150119-2742-vlh8og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=619&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69349/original/image-20150119-2742-vlh8og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=619&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
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</figure>
<p>The government recently claimed that <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2015/1/5/criminal-gang-laws-keeping-queenslanders-safer">“Criminal Gang laws (are) keeping Queenslanders safer”</a> and that they have driven a general decrease in crime.</p>
<p>Yet when you compare those claims against Queensland’s crime statistics, something soon becomes clear: the spin and the statistics tell two different stories.</p>
<h2>Sunshine State’s falling crime rate</h2>
<p>An examination of the overall crime rate in Queensland indicates that it has been steadily reducing for the past 12 years. Apart for an aberration in 2011/12, this trend has been consistent.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68260/original/image-20150106-13816-lm0xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68260/original/image-20150106-13816-lm0xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68260/original/image-20150106-13816-lm0xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68260/original/image-20150106-13816-lm0xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68260/original/image-20150106-13816-lm0xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68260/original/image-20150106-13816-lm0xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68260/original/image-20150106-13816-lm0xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68260/original/image-20150106-13816-lm0xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The overall crime rate for Queensland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland Police Service</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A reduction in general offences such as robbery, break and enters, and stolen vehicles was also attributed to the introduction of the Vicious Lawless Association Disestablishment (VLAD) laws, aimed at criminal bikie gangs.</p>
<p>However, comparison of the levels of reported property crime in Queensland year-to-year clearly show that property crime was already substantially reducing in 2013 – before the VLAD laws came into effect.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68258/original/image-20150106-13843-1k49033.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68258/original/image-20150106-13843-1k49033.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68258/original/image-20150106-13843-1k49033.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68258/original/image-20150106-13843-1k49033.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68258/original/image-20150106-13843-1k49033.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68258/original/image-20150106-13843-1k49033.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68258/original/image-20150106-13843-1k49033.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68258/original/image-20150106-13843-1k49033.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Year-to-year comparison of Queensland property crime sourced from Queensland Police crime data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Terry Goldsworthy</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/crime-stats-provide-reality-check-in-queenslands-bikie-crackdown-30908">Previous analysis</a> of government data shows that bikies had little involvement in the type of offences being put forward by the government. As I’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-phony-war-bikies-arent-the-only-problem-on-queenslands-glitter-strip-19231">explained before</a>, Queensland Police data indicates that outlaw motorcycle gang members commit <a href="https://www.police.qld.gov.au/programs/acglfaq.htm">only about 0.6%</a> of overall crime.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68317/original/image-20150106-18597-1m71ffu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68317/original/image-20150106-18597-1m71ffu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68317/original/image-20150106-18597-1m71ffu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68317/original/image-20150106-18597-1m71ffu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68317/original/image-20150106-18597-1m71ffu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68317/original/image-20150106-18597-1m71ffu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68317/original/image-20150106-18597-1m71ffu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68317/original/image-20150106-18597-1m71ffu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Table showing comparison of reported offences and outlaw motorcycle gang (OMCG) member arrests for January to May 2013 for the South East Region of Queensland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Winning the media war</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-war-on-bikies-turbocharged-after-top-cops-meet/story-fnn8dlfs-1227145345828?login=1">Senior Queensland police</a> have also made similar claims linking the bikie crackdown with falling crime rates in the state.</p>
<p>As part of the bikie war, the police have worked hard to win the media war, wooing and winning over most of the mainstream media, in particular the print sector. This is in alignment with objectives set out by the bikie Strategic Monitoring Team to reduce bad news stories – and their efforts have paid off.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68322/original/image-20150106-18607-15db5kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68322/original/image-20150106-18607-15db5kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68322/original/image-20150106-18607-15db5kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68322/original/image-20150106-18607-15db5kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68322/original/image-20150106-18607-15db5kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68322/original/image-20150106-18607-15db5kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=214&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68322/original/image-20150106-18607-15db5kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=214&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68322/original/image-20150106-18607-15db5kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=214&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extract from Strategic Monitoring Team report obtained under Right to Information, Queensland Government.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Terry Goldsworthy</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Critically, the bikie crackdown has been <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/editorial-premier-campbell-newman-has-delivered-real-results-for-queensland/story-fnihsr9v-1227155912674">strongly backed by The Courier-Mail</a>, Queensland’s only major state-wide daily newspaper, as this recent editorial shows:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Courier-Mail has been unashamedly supportive of the crackdown on outlaw bikie gangs, reflecting genuine fear among Queenslanders who were terrorised by these thugs acting like they ran the state.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Instead of much-needed investigative journalism on law and order, there has been far too much of what could best be described as regurgitative journalism. Too often, the government line on “cutting crime” is repeated without meaningful analysis or independent opinion being sought.</p>
<p>However, some media outlets have remained independent and on occasion have <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/01/queensland-bikie-laws-success-claims-are-propaganda-former-outcast-says">taken the propaganda</a> to task.</p>
<p>An analysis of media reports on the bikie war by The Courier-Mail and its weekend News Corp stablemate The Sunday Mail over a two-month period showed that 60% of stories had a police viewpoint, while only 20% had independent input.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68560/original/image-20150109-23804-1x6yxtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68560/original/image-20150109-23804-1x6yxtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68560/original/image-20150109-23804-1x6yxtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68560/original/image-20150109-23804-1x6yxtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68560/original/image-20150109-23804-1x6yxtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68560/original/image-20150109-23804-1x6yxtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68560/original/image-20150109-23804-1x6yxtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68560/original/image-20150109-23804-1x6yxtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Analysis of Courier Mail and Sunday Mail bikie war reports over a two-month period.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Terry Goldsworthy</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Queensland’s media has been flooded with operational police stories, with seemingly every bikie arrest the subject of a specific media release. In the same period, other offenders arrested for similar offences often didn’t rate a mention. </p>
<p>In a government media statement released the day before the election was called, Queenslanders were told that since the anti-gang laws were introduced, <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2015/1/5/criminal-gang-laws-keeping-queenslanders-safer">more than 1700 “criminal gang participants”</a> had been arrested.</p>
<p>Yet Right to Information data from the police showed that there were only 900 gang members in Queensland in 2013. No information was provided to the media as to exactly how many of the 1700 “gang participants” were <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-biker-not-bikie-running-for-lytton-20150107-12js7q.html">actual criminal gang members</a>. Perhaps no-one bothered to ask.</p>
<h2>Politicisation of the police</h2>
<p>In July 2014, Queensland Police Commissioner Ian Stewart went public claiming <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/lnp-governments-criminal-reforms-pay-off-says-queenslands-top-cop-ian-stewart/story-fnihsrf2-1226988952164?nk=050c8abc22ca76b394bcbdfc1843722f">a crime reduction of at least 10%</a> before the official crime data was settled. As The Courier-Mail reported at the time:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Crime in Queensland dropped at least 10% in the past financial year, according to Police Commissioner Ian Stewart, who attributed the fall to sweeping reforms and a crackdown on bikies. The state’s top cop says he can’t release official figures yet but declared he expected to exceed his target of a 10% decrease in crime. “I don’t want to crow about it but when I started last year I said I was hopeful we would get a 10% reduction in crime, that is the reported crime … I think we’re going to exceed that and quite honestly that is a real hallmark and milestone figure.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The same day, Queensland Premier Campbell Newman used the media story to justify his government’s law-and-order efforts when giving evidence to a <a href="http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parliament.qld.gov.au%2Fdocuments%2Fhansard%2F2014%2F2014_07_15_EstimatesFAC.pdf&ei=9zT8U9zQMoWTuATFioLABw&usg=AFQjCNH-yxxUEzgGOL-OA8Zq1R4o51NuVw&bvm=bv.73612305,d.c2E">parliamentary estimates committee</a>.</p>
<p>Stewart was rightly criticised for making that claim. Less than a fortnight later, the data showed that the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-26/newman-government-accused-of-cherry-picking-on-crime-rate-stats/5626414">overall crime rate</a> had decreased by only 2.1% and not "at least 10%”, leading to calls for an independent body to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-09/queensland-election-2015-crime-rates-dropped-campbell-newman/6009282?section=qld">interpret and publish an overall view of crime statistics</a>.</p>
<p>Perhaps worst for the government was the fact that in an attempt to claim the much higher decrease they had discarded an entire crime category, “other crime”, as <a href="http://www.4bc.com.au/radio/qld-govt-accused-of-sugarcoating-crime-stats-20140807-3daiq.html">not being crime important to “mum and dads”</a>. This category contained domestic violence crime, which had increased some 15%. </p>
<p>Within days of this being identified in the media, the government suddenly announced an <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/former-governorgeneral-quentin-bryce-to-head-task-force-into-domestic-violence/story-fnihsrf2-1227019541404?nk=fe8b48d675a6b2587f7a8cdcf92cdae8">inquiry into domestic violence in Queensland</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/coast-cop-jim-keogh-says-no-plans-to-run-for-public-office-despite-comments-on-vlad-laws/story-fnj94j0t-1227175375524">Claims by police</a> that they could not have achieved the overall crime results they have without the bikie legislation are unsustainable. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.peo.gov.au/learning/fact-sheets/separation-of-powers.html">separation of powers doctrine</a> would dictate that comments with political connotations, such as the ones we have seen from <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/hands-off-bikie-laws-police-warn-politicians-ahead-of-state-election/story-e6frg6n6-1227174266560?nk=1e3531afe318ce1f4d7ba4bea3090d1b">senior police</a>, should not have been made. It was the government’s failure to observe these principles in its unfounded <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-25/expert-lashes-newman27s-swipe-at-judicial-system/5047008">criticism of the judiciary</a> that led to a public backlash and an <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/premier-campbell-newman-apologises-for-getting-some-things-wrong-20140721-zvaqd.html">apology</a> from Newman in July 2014.</p>
<p>Tellingly, despite the <a href="http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hcourt.gov.au%2Fassets%2Fpublications%2Fjudgment-summaries%2F2014%2Fhca-46-2014-11-14.pdf&ei=v4OrVJeqMIKD8gWTuoLIDg&usg=AFQjCNHZp70QV2NsnaJXLgWSRtfLSi763g">High Court decision</a> in November 2014 clearing the way, not one other Australian jurisdiction has moved to implement similar bikie laws to Queensland, despite having ample time to prepare and do so. </p>
<p>In reality, other jurisdictions appear to see the VLAD laws for the distraction that they are and to realise that the laws remain untested despite <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/editorial-high-court-decision-on-bikie-laws-vindicates-newmans-tough-stand/story-fnihsr9v-1227123628285?nk=8143c97abb89f108092aad9340f73651">government claims</a> to the contrary.</p>
<h2>The opposition’s plan – what plan?</h2>
<p>If the Liberal National government’s VLAD laws are unpalatable, the alternative proposed by Labor is hardly more enticing. </p>
<p>Labor has mooted a return to utilising their <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-labor-pledges-to-scrap-extended-sentences-for-bikies-if-elected/story-fnn8dlfs-1227175354983?from=public_rss">Criminal Organisation laws</a> – laws that also have an association aspect. </p>
<p>Introduced in 2009, the “elite” anti-bikie squad, Taskforce Hydra, failed to make a single successful application in the four years following. The only application sought was against the Gold Coast Chapter of the Finks and this action was discontinued in the Supreme Court in 2014.</p>
<p>Labor has been <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/03/05/labor-repeal-qlds-anti-bikie-laws">all over the place</a> in its stance on bikies and crime. </p>
<p>The opposition voted with the Liberal National Party to pass the laws in October 2013, even while criticising the government’s rushed approach. Labor has since complained that the laws had “gone too far, affecting innocent Queenslanders whose only crime is to ride a motorcycle”. </p>
<p>Labor is now promising to “repeal, review and replace” the VLAD laws, with little detail on what would replace them.</p>
<p>As a former Gold Coast police detective with 28 years’ experience, I’ve investigated my fair share of bikies in the past – and as I’ve said many times, being a critic of poor policy <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/mixed-reviews-for-campbell-newmans-blitz-on-bikies/story-e6frgczx-1226751524190">does not make me an apologist</a> for criminals in the bikies’ midst. </p>
<p>It’s just a pity that we’ve seen this area of law-and-order policy become so politicised from all sides, at the expense of giving more credit for falling crime rates where it’s due.</p>
<h2>Who deserves more credit for a safer Queensland?</h2>
<p>The current Queensland crime rate is more likely to be the product of a long-term, declining trend, combined with the Newman government employing an <a href="http://www.northweststar.com.au/story/2802311/queensland-state-election-campbell-newman-promotes-vlad-laws/?cs=12">extra 800 police</a>. </p>
<p>Those are certainly more likely to be significant factors than laws that have only been used minimally, on a single group, which commits a <a href="https://theconversation.com/crime-stats-provide-reality-check-in-queenslands-bikie-crackdown-30908">very small amount of crime</a>. </p>
<p>The issues of better resourcing, better crime management and an actual commitment by senior police to deal with criminal groups are the real reasons for recent successes.</p>
<p>The government’s own bikie Strategic Monitoring Team has recognised this. Last year, the former army officer heading the team <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-22/queensland-police-winning-battle-against-bikies-on-gold-coast/5614982">told the ABC</a> that significant decreases in Gold Coast crime could “be attributed to more police available to carry out operations on the Gold Coast and the targeted nature of the enforcement activity”.</p>
<p>Politicians of all stripes will always try to take credit for falling crime rates. But the media and voters need to look beyond the official spin and give credit where it’s really due for the long-term decline in Queensland crime: in particular, to the many unheralded police officers doing their jobs.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35892/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Goldsworthy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queensland’s Liberal National government has made law and order – particularly its anti-bikie laws – a key part of its re-election pitch. The government recently claimed that “Criminal Gang laws (are…Terry Goldsworthy, Assistant Professor, Criminology, Bond UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/364152015-01-19T02:58:15Z2015-01-19T02:58:15ZNewman ‘lied to me’: Alan Jones weighs into Queensland’s election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69319/original/image-20150118-5206-i1yqe8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An ad for Alan Jones's Queensland election special broadcasts.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">4BC</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s loudest radio shock jock, Alan Jones, has <a href="http://media.brisbanetimes.com.au/video-news/video-qld-news/lnp-are-prostitutes-jones-6177002.html">launched an extraordinary attack on the Queensland premier</a>, claiming Campbell Newman visited him at home at the urging of senior Liberals and promised to oppose <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-09/acland-coal-mine-liberal-party-donations/5440184">a major coal expansion</a>, which his government later <a href="http://www.dsdip.qld.gov.au/assessments-and-approvals/new-acland-coal-mine-stage-3-expansion.html">approved</a>. </p>
<p>In the first of Jones’s special one-hour Queensland election broadcasts on Brisbane’s 4BC radio station – airing each weekday in the primetime 8-9am talkback slot until <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">the January 31 poll</a> – he also alleged Newman and senior Liberal National colleagues had lied to Queenslanders about mining deals, jobs and debt. </p>
<p>The Queensland-born broadcaster <a href="http://mumbrella.com.au/alan-jones-broadcast-fairfaxs-brisbane-radio-station-state-elections-270720">came back from holidays early</a> to have his say on the state election. He plans to make further allegations against senior government figures in the days ahead, including one of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-queenslands-unofficial-premiers-in-waiting-35952">LNP’s top leadership contenders</a> if Newman loses his seat, Health Minister Lawrence Springborg.</p>
<p>Jones claimed that before the March 2012 election, Newman visited him at home and pledged to oppose stage 3 of the New Hope coal mine at <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2011/06/22/3250887.htm">Acland</a>, near where the radio host was born and grew up in the Darling Downs region. One week after Jones went off air late last year, the mine was approved.</p>
<p>“Campbell Newman lied to me. I have no reason to believe anything he says,” Jones said on 4BC on Monday.</p>
<p>Jones has been at war with the Newman government and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s4069711.htm">the state’s major newspaper, The Courier-Mail</a> over the Acland mine for some time.</p>
<p>Soon after the broadcast, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/queensland-election-2015-alan-jones-attacks-campbell-newman-on-air/story-fnr8rfrw-1227189505342">Newman dismissed the attack</a> as old news, saying: “Alan Jones is a bloke from Sydney who has made all sorts of comments in the past and there’s nothing new about anything he’s said.”</p>
<p>The top-rating Sydney-based broadcaster could certainly have used some better local knowledge. Jones repeatedly said that the Newman government had <a href="http://media.brisbanetimes.com.au/video-news/video-qld-news/lnp-are-prostitutes-jones-6177002.html">“78 seats out of 89”</a> in the Queensland parliament – which was true back in March 2012, but a spate of resignations and defections have since reduced the government’s numbers to <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-the-state-of-play-20150107-12iwmg.html">73 seats</a>.</p>
<p>The attack from Jones – who has long been seen as a political kingmaker, especially on the conservative side of politics – comes as the latest polls show the LNP government <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/galaxy-poll-shows-labor-in-with-a-good-chance-of-winning-queensland-election/story-fnr8vuu5-1227187634828">facing a double-digit backlash</a> in some key seats.</p>
<p>On Monday, Jones told listeners: “I’m not telling you how to vote. But I’m telling you a few things about this lot that you won’t hear anywhere else.”</p>
<p>While largely ignoring the Labor opposition, Jones praised “some excellent independents” and explained he felt compelled to weigh into the campaign because “once a Queenslander, always a Queenslander”.</p>
<p>But what impact Jones has on the conservative vote in Queensland over the next fortnight remains to be seen. While some 4BC listeners called to thank him for intervening, the LNP will be crossing its fingers that more Queenslanders agree with one Monday morning caller, Peter, who rang in to tell Jones: “I think the way you’ve ranted and raved this morning, you’ve done Campbell Newman a favour.”</p>
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<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian McNair receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>Australia’s loudest radio shock jock, Alan Jones, has launched an extraordinary attack on the Queensland premier, claiming Campbell Newman visited him at home at the urging of senior Liberals and promised…Brian McNair, Professor of Journalism, Media and Communication, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/359592015-01-12T19:29:07Z2015-01-12T19:29:07ZThe true state of Queensland’s economy, without the spin<p>Judging from the first week of campaigning, the 2015 Queensland election is going to be very much about economics – and jobs in particular.</p>
<p>On the one hand, Premier Campbell Newman and his Liberal National Party stress that <a href="http://qld.lnp.org.au/lnp-unveils-plan-jobs-tomorrow/">under their “strong economic management”</a>, 1100 new jobs are being created every month and Queensland is on track to become the fastest growing state economy in Australia. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the Labor opposition, led by Annastacia Palaszczuk, has focused on <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-remember-the-cutbacks-says-alp-20150108-12jrrw.html">“the savage cuts to jobs”</a> under the Newman government, arguing those cuts have affected the delivery of adequate services, especially in health. </p>
<p>For voters trying to discern the facts behind each party’s spin, two crucial questions are:</p>
<ul>
<li>How does Queensland’s economy compare to the rest of Australia?</li>
<li>How has the economy performed since Newman’s Liberal National government took over from Anna Bligh’s Labor back in March 2012?</li>
</ul>
<p>The short answer to the first question is: around the average, with some local situations that tend to be among the worst in the country.</p>
<p>As for the second question, I was a little surprised by what the data showed: that Queensland’s economy has fared worse over the past three years than it might appear at first sight.</p>
<p>To offer an independent analysis of those two questions, I have used data publicly available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Monthly data for employment and unemployment are adjusted for seasonality using the X-12 software package of the US Census Bureau.</p>
<p>Now, let me add some substance to those short answers. </p>
<h2>A snapshot of the Queensland economy today</h2>
<p>Table 1 below reports a set of key macroeconomic indicators (looking at the economy as a whole) for each Australian state and for the aggregate Australian economy. See the notes beneath the table for technical definitions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68651/original/image-20150112-23812-r3fzs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68651/original/image-20150112-23812-r3fzs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68651/original/image-20150112-23812-r3fzs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=188&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68651/original/image-20150112-23812-r3fzs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=188&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68651/original/image-20150112-23812-r3fzs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=188&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68651/original/image-20150112-23812-r3fzs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=236&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68651/original/image-20150112-23812-r3fzs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=236&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68651/original/image-20150112-23812-r3fzs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=236&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the Australian Bureaus of Statistics.
Notes: GDP is Gross Domestic Product, GDI is Gross Domestic Income, Unemployment rate is number of unemployed persons in percent of total labour force, Youth unemployment rate is the rate of unemployment of persons ages 15-24, and the employment rate is the number of employed individuals in percent of total working age population. GDP and GDI growth rates refer to the period June 2013-June2014. The unemployment rate refers to November 2014, youth unemployment is the 12 month average to November 2014 and the employment rate is the 3 months average to November 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in aggregate and per capita (meaning per person), the Queensland economy is broadly in line with the Australian average. Only Western Australia and Northern Territory appear to clearly outperform the Sunshine State.</p>
<p>But data on Gross Domestic Income (GDI) show that Queensland is well below the Australian average. In particular, GDI per-capita in Queensland has decreased by 1% between June 2013 and June 2014. This is the second largest decline in the entire country. </p>
<p>Conceptually, GDP and GDI measure the same thing: output. However, they do that from two different perspectives. GDP measures “expenditures” while GDI measures “incomes”. The discrepancy between the two arises because of measurement errors.</p>
<p>GDP is the more popular of the two measures, but recently most Statistical Offices have started reporting both. In fact, it has been shown that GDI tends to suffer from a smaller measurement error than GDP. </p>
<p>GDI is therefore likely to be a more reliable predictor of the business cycle of the economy. And this is not good news for Queensland, because it means that we might be going through a much less favourable economic phase than we believe. </p>
<p>In terms of labour market performance, Queensland currently has the equal highest unemployment rate in the country (6.9%), matched only by Tasmania, even though this is only a few decimal points higher than the Australian average (6.3%).</p>
<p>Youth unemployment in Queensland (14.1%) is marginally below the Australian average of 14.5%. However, there is a lot of regional variation within Queensland. In Cairns, for instance, youth unemployment is above 21%, one of the highest rates observed in Australia. Conversely, in Mackay youth unemployment drops to 8.6%. </p>
<h1>Newman vs Bligh on jobs and growth</h1>
<p>In Table 2, I report the change in several macroeconomic variables since 2007. The period of observation is split in three sub-periods corresponding to the latest three Queensland governments: Bligh I (September 2007-March 2009), Bligh II (March 2009-March 2012), and Newman (March 2012 to the latest available information).</p>
<p>The table reports the data for Queensland and Australia overall. In terms of economic growth, again GDP and GDI provide quite different indications. According to GDP, the Queensland economy under the LNP government has performed on par with the Australian aggregate – slightly better, in fact.</p>
<p>Conversely, GDI data present quite a dim picture, with Queensland doing much worse than the Australian average and, more importantly, experiencing a net 2% decline in income per-capita. In this respect, the LNP government has delivered a significantly worse outcome than the previous two Labor governments.</p>
<p>Employment performance appears to be the highlight of the LNP government. The increase reported in the table corresponds to an average of about 970 new jobs per month between March 2012 and November 2014. </p>
<p>But, unfortunately for Queensland, this is only part of the story. First, practically all of the new jobs created are part-time. In fact, full-time employment decreased during the period of observation from 1.634 million to 1.626 million. Those are “original” figures; the seasonally adjusted figures show an even stronger decline. (You can read more about seasonal adjustment of jobs data <a href="https://theconversation.com/hockey-plays-the-abs-blame-game-while-unemployment-hovers-32746">here</a>.)</p>
<p>Second, unemployment has grown. Now, the increase shown in the table refers to the seasonally adjusted data and is considerably larger than the increase resulting from the original data. Still, the creation of new jobs occurred while existing jobs were being destroyed. </p>
<p>As a result, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 5.5% in March 2012 to 6.9% in November 2014. Even the original data show an increase in the unemployment rate, albeit of a much more modest magnitude.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68652/original/image-20150112-23782-1amuzxq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68652/original/image-20150112-23782-1amuzxq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68652/original/image-20150112-23782-1amuzxq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=234&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68652/original/image-20150112-23782-1amuzxq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=234&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68652/original/image-20150112-23782-1amuzxq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=234&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68652/original/image-20150112-23782-1amuzxq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68652/original/image-20150112-23782-1amuzxq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68652/original/image-20150112-23782-1amuzxq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Notes: Growth rates of GDP and GDP are annual averages. Growth rates of employment and unemployment are measured over the entire period of each government using seasonally adjusted monthly data. In addition to the growth, the table also reports the simple change in level (i.e. change in the number of people employed and unemployed). The change in unemployment rate is simply the difference between unemployment rate at the beginning of the period and unemployment rate at the end of the period.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Overall, under the LNP government, the Queensland labour market appears to have performed worse than the Australian average.</p>
<p>Also, it does not seem that the Newman government has outperformed either of the two Bligh governments. During Bligh’s time in power, from September 2007 to March 2012, the Queensland economy experienced higher GDI growth, faster employment growth, and a smaller increase in the rate of unemployment. </p>
<p>The Newman government did marginally better than the Labor government in terms of GDP per-capita growth and better than Bligh I in terms of limiting the growth in the number of unemployed people. However, the growth in unemployment during Bligh I occurred at a time when Australian unemployment was growing even faster.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>* Editor’s note: Fabrizio’s author Q&A is now over, but – as many of you requested – we have now published <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-true-state-of-queensland-debt-36345">a follow-up article on Queensland debt</a>. You can read all of our <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election coverage here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the piecewise linear continuous model and its applications in macroeconomics</span></em></p>Judging from the first week of campaigning, the 2015 Queensland election is going to be very much about economics – and jobs in particular. On the one hand, Premier Campbell Newman and his Liberal National…Fabrizio Carmignani, Professor, Griffith Business School , Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/359522015-01-11T19:29:05Z2015-01-11T19:29:05ZWho are Queensland’s unofficial premiers-in-waiting?<p>It’s the question dogging Premier Campbell Newman everywhere he goes this election – who will lead Queensland if his party wins, but he loses?</p>
<p>So far, <a href="http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/01/07/15/23/campbell-newman-challenged-on-electoral-maths-as-punters-predict-he-will-lose-his-seat#v7C7dc6RiwZTtZXe.99">Newman’s line has been</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I firmly believe that if we have a situation where I’m not winning Ashgrove, actually the LNP will be kicked out of office.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But that’s not a prediction backed up by <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/that-thinking-feeling/campbell-newman-is-lying-to-you-and-he-knows-it-20150107-12juv0.html">simple maths</a> or by the betting market.</p>
<p>As local media outlets have been reporting almost daily, <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-bookies-tip-campbell-newman-to-lose-ashgrove-20150107-12j9cr.html">the punters’ prediction</a> is that the Liberal National Party will win the election, Newman will <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/ashg/">lose his seat of Ashgrove</a> to Labor rival Kate Jones, and Tim Nicholls will be the new premier.</p>
<p>So who is Tim Nicholls? And who are the other front-runners to be premier if the LNP regains office without its leader?</p>
<p><strong>Tim Nicholls</strong> is currently Queensland’s treasurer. He has greatly enhanced his reputation with traditional Liberal voters as the public face of the government’s <a href="http://www.strongchoices.qld.gov.au">“Strong Choices”</a> program.</p>
<p>Nicholls also performed well <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-budget-2014-treasurer-tim-nicholls-delivers-nofrills-budget-20140603-zrw1x.html">delivering the 2014-15 budget</a>, which aligned with the LNP’s main message of making “tough choices”, while continuing to attack the opposition over the previous Labor government’s economic legacy.</p>
<p>However, Nicholls has two problems to overcome if he is to win the leadership. </p>
<p>The first is a question of style. While Nicholls is an effective persecutor in the halls of parliament, he has yet to translate this skill to a wider audience. The most significant problem with “Strong Choices” was the government’s – and specifically Nicholls’ – inability to translate the policy and relate it to the average voter.</p>
<p>The second challenge that Nicholls faces is a factional one. A protege of the controversial <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/santo-santoro-quits-as-liberals-vice-president-20140320-3561z.html">Santo Santoro</a>, Nicholls had been on the wrong side of the factional divide until Newman’s arrival. </p>
<p>Succeeding Santoro in the seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/clay/">Clayfield</a> in Brisbane’s inner northern suburbs, Nicholls attempted a challenge for the Liberal leadership in 2007, which ultimately ended in a tie. Subsequently, Mark McArdle <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/mcardle-named-liberal-leader/story-e6freoof-1111115046776">assumed the leadership</a> as a compromise candidate, largely because Nicholls was unable to convince the Liberal party room that he could be a credible leader. As result he has been passed over in every leadership ballot since. Clearly, he would have to be more convincing this time.</p>
<p>Despite the infamy of having been an opposition leader who took his party to three election defeats, <strong>Lawrence Springborg</strong> has been the LNP’s strongest performer since it assumed government. </p>
<p>Newman handed Springborg the health portfolio, long considered to be one of the hardest in Queensland politics. The member for <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/sdow/">Southern Downs</a> has received plaudits for reducing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-23/springborg-announces-wait-time-guarantee-to-reduce-elective-surg/5912122">wait times for elective surgery</a> and overseeing the opening of the <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/staff-begin-the-move-to-lady-cilento-hospital-20140714-zt7ap.html">Lady Cilento Children’s Hospital in Brisbane</a>, even if it has been subject <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-11/lady-cilento-childrens-hospital-opened-too-soon-mother-says/5960070">to some criticism</a>.</p>
<p>The main issue concerning Springborg’s potential leadership is historical baggage. The LNP would conceivably have trouble electing a leader who has already been defeated three times. To amend a phrase <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/howard-unleashes-elitist-costello-blew-his-chance-at-power-20101021-16w4p.html">from John Howard</a>: could Lazarus have a quadruple bypass?</p>
<p>Queenslanders may be more open to the idea than they once would have been.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"552740134739656704"}"></div></p>
<p>Only hours after the election was called, a snap Seven Network/Reachtel poll of 1583 Queenslanders found that Springborg came second behind Newman as preferred LNP leader.</p>
<p>Another former leader, <strong>John-Paul Langbroek</strong>, could also be a contender for the LNP’s top job. </p>
<p>During the Newman government’s first term, the former Gold Coast dentist has largely kept his head down as education minister. Langbroek is an outside chance of recapturing the leadership, but may be rewarded for party loyalty considering <a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/newman_to_lead_lnp_to_qld_poll_gmqBXBaoew92VwZgzcmqZM">he stood aside</a> for Newman to take the leader’s post.</p>
<p>In recent months, there has been <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/that-thinking-feeling/pick-a-premier--queenslands-favourite-game-of-political-confusion-20140910-10ex71.html">increased speculation in well-connected circles</a> about the leadership prospects of <strong>Ian Walker</strong>. The minister for science, information technology and the arts could be seen as a similar type of compromise candidate to McArdle in 2007. </p>
<p>Walker has strong factional support, but is little known outside Brisbane. In many other states, his background as a <a href="http://au.linkedin.com/pub/ian-walker/24/23b/726">top lawyer and managing partner in a large law firm</a> would not necessarily be seen as a hindrance. But this is Queensland, with the <a href="http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/pop-growth-reg-qld/reg-pop-growth-2008-09.pdf">most decentralised population</a> in Australia, and Walker could struggle to woo voters in Queensland’s vast regional areas.</p>
<p>The dark horse in this hypothetical contest is <strong>Scott Emerson</strong>. </p>
<p>The current minister for transport is seen as a rising star in the LNP’s ranks. This was confirmed when he received a 15% swing towards the LNP <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2012/guide/indo.htm">in his seat of Indooroopilly</a> at the 2012 election. But many see him as too inexperienced as this point.</p>
<p>Astute observers will note that betting markets did not include <strong>Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney</strong>, once <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/jeff-seeney-content-to-hold-newmans-bouquet-20120216-1taw4.html">described in The Brisbane Times</a> as “always the bridesmaid, but never the bride”.</p>
<p>Seeney is not a likely contender for the leadership as his style is more closely associated with the traditional National Party ethos. Consequently he is unlikely to appeal to the majority of urban voters, which is critical in any Queensland state election.</p>
<p>No women in the LNP are close to ascending to the top job. Some may wonder whether this is a reflection of quality within the party’s ranks, or whether this is indicative of the party’s culture.</p>
<p>Though Nicholls is justifiably the favourite to assume the leadership should Newman fall in Ashgrove, in my view it would make more sense for Springborg to take the LNP helm, should Newman be voted out. If that happens, the LNP could suffer serious destabilisation. Springborg’s experience and temperament could be the tonic to counteract this.</p>
<p>But it is worth remembering the awkward reason Newman is in state politics in the first place. In 2011, the LNP decided to <a href="http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/outsider-newman-eyes-qld-premiers-office-20110322-1c4g7.html">parachute Newman into state parliament</a>, after his high-profile tenure as lord mayor of Brisbane. </p>
<p>Back then, the other would-be premiers within the state ranks were seen as lacking the charisma, political connections, experience or ability to ensure that the LNP could win enough seats in the state’s heavily populated south-eastern corner to win an election. Less than four years on, the contenders to succeed Newman as premier remain largely the same. </p>
<p>The LNP will be hoping for a win in Ashgrove to avoid putting any of their premiers-in-waiting to the test just yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35952/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Winther does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s the question dogging Premier Campbell Newman everywhere he goes this election – who will lead Queensland if his party wins, but he loses? So far, Newman’s line has been: I firmly believe that if we…Todd Winther, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/359642015-01-08T05:03:56Z2015-01-08T05:03:56ZFirst poll of the Queensland election shows a 50-50 tie<p>The Queensland election will be held on the 31 January. <a href="https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-queensland-poll-6january2015">A ReachTEL poll</a>, taken on the day the Queensland election was called (6 January), shows a 50-50 dead heat between Labor and the Liberal National Party (LNP) – a 1% gain for the LNP since the ReachTEL in late November. Primary votes are 40.3% for the LNP (up 1.1), 38.1% for Labor (up 0.8), 7.6% for the Greens (down 0.3) and 6.3% for Palmer United Party (PUP) (down 0.2). This is Labor’s highest Queensland ReachTEL primary vote since before the 2012 election. While some ReachTEL polls have given Labor a higher two-party preferred (2PP) than the primaries would indicate, the 2PP here looks fine. This poll sampled 1600 voters.</p>
<p>Premier Campbell Newman’s ratings have shown some improvement, with his total good and very good rating up 2% to 36%, and his total poor and very poor rating steady at 47% - this gives Newman a net rating of -11. Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk has a net rating of -8.5, down from -6.5. ReachTEL’s ratings are worse than other pollsters for leaders who are not well-known because of the middle “satisfactory” option, which includes those who are genuinely uncommitted, but also weakly positive voters.</p>
<p>38% said the LNP had done enough to deserve re-election, and 49% thought otherwise. This 11 point gap is down from a 16.5 gap in November. Party breakdowns of this question have the Greens and PUP almost as disappointed with the LNP as Labor, indicating that Greens and Other preferences could favour Labor more than at the 2012 election.</p>
<p>Polling in the 2013 Federal election and 2014 Victorian election underestimated the Coalition’s primary vote performance, but the 2PP was correct because preference flows changed in Labor’s favour. A similar outcome in Queensland is possible. On the current polls, <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/queensland-beautiful-one-day-lineball.html">Kevin Bonham</a> thinks that the LNP will win a plurality of the seats, but could fall short of a majority. A small shift to either party from the current situation would be of crucial importance.</p>
<p>The Labor government from 1998-2012 held office by winning a large share of the seats in south-east Queensland, particularly Brisbane. If Labor is to regain office in 2015, they will need to repeat the success of past Labor governments in south-east Queensland.</p>
<h2>Will Campbell Newman lose his seat?</h2>
<p>At the 2012 election, Newman won the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/ashg/">seat of Ashgrove</a> by 5.7% over Labor’s Kate Jones. The statewide 2PP at that election was <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensland_state_election,_2015">about 63-37</a> to the LNP. With polls now at about a 50-50 tie, the swing to Labor is currently 13%, much more than Newman’s Ashgrove margin.</p>
<p>Sitting member effects should be limited in Ashgrove, since Newman was already very well-known before becoming Premier, while Labor’s former member Kate Jones will recontest. As a result, polling late last year from ReachTEL that had <a href="https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7news-sunday-mail-the-state-were-in-2014-ashgrove-december2014">Newman trailing Jones by 55-45</a> is what would be expected. Unless the LNP can greatly improve their statewide 2PP, it is unlikely that Newman will hold Ashgrove.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The Queensland election will be held on the 31 January. A ReachTEL poll, taken on the day the Queensland election was called (6 January), shows a 50-50 dead heat between Labor and the Liberal National…Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.