tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/carbon-budget-5664/articlesCarbon budget – The Conversation2023-10-30T16:35:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164592023-10-30T16:35:41Z2023-10-30T16:35:41ZCarbon budget for 1.5°C will run out in six years at current emissions levels – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556613/original/file-20231030-19-ti4omc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5184%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pipe-emissions-into-atmosphere-on-horizon-562268431">Mykhailo Pavlenko/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If humanity wants to have a 50-50 chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, we can only emit another 250 gigatonnes (billion metric tonnes) of CO₂. This effectively gives the world just six years to get to net zero, according to calculations in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5">our new paper</a> published in Nature Climate Change.</p>
<p>The global level of emissions is presently 40 gigatonnes of CO₂ per year. And, as this figure was calculated from the start of 2023, the time limit may be actually closer to five years. </p>
<p>Our estimate is consistent with an <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/2295/2023/#section8">assessment</a> published by 50 leading climate scientists in June and updates with new climate data many of the key figures reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-report-global-emissions-must-peak-by-2025-to-keep-warming-at-1-5-c-we-need-deeds-not-words-165598">in August 2021</a>.</p>
<p>How much CO₂ can still be emitted while remaining under a certain level of warming is referred to as the “carbon budget”. The carbon budget concept works because the increase in Earth’s global mean surface temperature has increased in a linear fashion with the total amount of CO₂ people have emitted since the industrial revolution. </p>
<p>The other side of this equation is that, roughly speaking, warming stops when CO₂ emissions stop: in other words, at net zero CO₂. This explains why net zero is such an important concept and why so many countries, cities, and companies have adopted net zero targets.</p>
<p>We revised the remaining carbon budget down from the 500 gigatonnes reported by the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-5/#5.5.2">the IPCC</a> from the start of 2020. Some of this revision is merely timing: three years and 120 gigatonnes of CO₂ emissions later, the world is closer to the 1.5°C threshold. Improvements we made to the method for calculating budget adjustments shrank the remaining budget further.</p>
<h2>Clearing the air</h2>
<p>Alongside CO₂, humanity emits other greenhouse gases and air pollutants that contribute to climate change. We adjusted the budget to account for the projected warming caused by these non-CO₂ pollutants. To do this, we used a <a href="https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ar6">large database of future emissions scenarios</a> to determine how non-CO₂ warming is related to total warming.</p>
<p>Some of the warming caused by greenhouse gases is offset by cooling aerosols such as sulphates – air pollutants that are emitted along with CO₂ from car exhausts and furnaces. Almost all emissions scenarios project a reduction in aerosol emissions in the future, regardless of whether fossil fuels are phased out or CO₂ emissions continue unabated. Even in scenarios where CO₂ emissions increase, scientists expect stricter air quality legislation and cleaner combustion.</p>
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<img alt="Cars surrounded by exhaust fumes in traffic." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Scientists predict air pollution which cools the climate will decline in future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pollution-exhaust-cars-city-winter-smoke-1882292326">NadyGinzburg/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>In its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">most recent report</a>, the IPCC updated its best estimate of how much air pollution cools the climate. As a result, we expect that falling air pollution in future will contribute more to warming than previously assessed. This reduces the remaining 1.5°C budget by about another 110 gigatonnes.</p>
<p>Other updates we made to the carbon budget methodology tend to reduce the budget even more, such as projections of thawing permafrost that were not included in earlier estimates.</p>
<h2>All is not lost</h2>
<p>It is important to stress that many aspects of our carbon budget estimate are uncertain. The balance of non-CO₂ pollutants in future emissions scenarios can be as influential on the remaining carbon budget as different interpretations of how the climate is likely to respond.</p>
<p>We also do not know for sure whether the planet will really stop warming at net zero CO₂ emissions. On average, evidence from climate models tends to suggest it will, but some models show substantial warming continuing for decades after net zero is reached. If further warming after net zero is the case, the budget would be further reduced.</p>
<p>These uncertain factors are why we quote a 50/50 likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C at 250 gigatonnes of CO₂. A more risk-averse assessment would report a two-in-three chance of staying under 1.5°C with a remaining budget of 60 gigatonnes - or one-and-a-half years of current emissions.</p>
<p>Time is running out to limit global heating to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While we have revised the remaining carbon budget, the message from earlier assessments is unchanged: a dramatic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to halt climate change. </p>
<p>It looks less likely that we will limit warming to 1.5°C, but this does not mean that we should give up hope. Our update also revised the budget for 2°C downwards relative to the IPCC’s 2021 estimate, but by a smaller amount – from 1,350 to 1,220 gigatonnes, or from 34 to 30 years of current emissions. If current national climate policies are fully implemented (admittedly, an optimistic scenario), this may be enough to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04553-z">hold warming below 2°C</a>.</p>
<p>The risks of triggering tipping points such as the dieback of the Amazon rainforest increase – sometimes sharply – <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-el-nino-means-for-the-worlds-perilous-climate-tipping-points-209083">with increasing warming</a>, but 1.5°C itself is not a hard boundary beyond which climate chaos abounds.</p>
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<img alt="A dry and cracked river bed with rainforest in the distance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Tipping points in the Earth system could dramatically accelerate climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/like-many-rivers-amazon-rainforest-tambopata-2369657085">Beto Santillan/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>With effective action on emissions, we can still limit peak warming to 1.6°C or 1.7°C, with a view to bringing temperatures back below 1.5°C in the longer term. </p>
<p>This is a goal absolutely worth pursuing.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Smith receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council and UK Research and Innovation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Lamboll has received EU Horizon funding from PROVIDE and CONSTRAIN.</span></em></p>For a two-in-three chance of staying within 1.5°C, the budget shrinks to one-and-a-half years.Chris Smith, Senior Research Fellow in Climate Science, University of LeedsRobin Lamboll, Research Fellow in Atmospheric Science, Imperial College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164282023-10-29T01:51:39Z2023-10-29T01:51:39ZWorried economists call for a carbon price, a tax on coal exports, and ‘green tariffs’ to get Australia on the path to net zero<p>Australia’s top economists have overwhelmingly backed the reintroduction of the carbon price that helped cut Australia’s emissions between 2012 and 2014.</p>
<p>The government concedes that achieving its legislated emissions reduction target of <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2022A00037">43% below 2005 levels</a> by 2030 and net zero by 2050 will be <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/speech-afr-climate-and-energy-summit">difficult</a>. With official forecasts showing Australia <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022">falling short</a>, the Economic Society of Australia asked 50 leading Australian economists what should be done to speed things up.</p>
<p>Offered a choice that included nuclear energy, accelerated investment in large-scale batteries, and a rapid phase-out of traditionally fuelled vehicles, 30 of the 50 picked a <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/Infohub/CPM/Pages/About-the-mechanism.aspx">carbon price</a> of the kind introduced by the Gillard Labor government in 2012 and abolished by the Abbott Coalition government in 2014.</p>
<p>Another five said they supported an economy-wide carbon price, but wouldn’t nominate it in the survey because it would face “significant political hurdles” and would not be “politically feasible”. </p>
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<p>The Department of Climate Change told the government in December it was on track to fall short of its 2030 target of a 43% cut on 2005 levels, but that with “additional measures” it could <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022">get to 40%</a>.</p>
<p>In October this year, Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen described the 43% target as “ambitious” and a “<a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/speech-afr-climate-and-energy-summit">difficult task</a>”.</p>
<p>The scheme the economists were asked about was a “<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cap-and-trade.asp">cap and trade</a>” scheme, of the type common in <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/a1abead2-de91-5992-bb7a-73d8aaaf767f/full">much of the world</a>. In these schemes, the government sets a cap on the total number of emission permits produced each year and allows users to trade them with one another to set a price.</p>
<h2>A carbon price by another name</h2>
<p>The Gillard government’s scheme was initially a <a href="https://webarchive.nla.gov.au/awa/20130418163201/https://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/clean-energy-future/an-overview-of-the-clean-energy-legislative-package/">fixed charge</a> per tonne of carbon emitted by big polluters. It was set to switch to a cap and trade scheme after three years, but ended up being abolished after two.</p>
<p>In its place, the Abbott government created a “<a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/The-safeguard-mechanism">safeguard mechanism</a>” that currently applies only to the 219 biggest polluting facilities in Australia. It requires each to keep emissions below a government-set baseline, and allows them to trade emissions reductions with one another.</p>
<p>The economists were asked about expanding the mechanism to make it mimic an economy-wide carbon price. In response, 42% said they wanted to boost the number of facilities it covered, and 26% wanted to tighten the baselines to push up the price.</p>
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<p>All but seven of the 50 economists wanted either an economy-wide carbon price or an expanded safeguard mechanism that would act as one.</p>
<p>Independent economist Hugh Sibly said it might well be that nuclear, hydrogen or other sources of energy were the most efficient ways of decarbonising the economy, but it would be impossible to know until Australia started charging for emitting carbon and allowed the market to work out the cheapest way of coping.</p>
<p>Half of those surveyed wanted to expedite the building of new transmission lines to link places where electricity was being produced with places where it would be needed. One-third wanted expedited investment in large battery storage.</p>
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<p>Economists including Macquarie University’s Lisa Magnani justified this by saying it was necessary for the government to move in ahead of the private sector to provide the infrastructure the private sector would need in order to decarbonise “within the time left to act seriously”.</p>
<h2>No new mines, taxes on exports from existing mines</h2>
<p>Many experts surveyed wanted bolder measures than those proposed by the Economic Society of Australia.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1214&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1214&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1214&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Former OECD official Adrian Blundell-Wignall wants metallurgical coal exports taxed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.oecd.org/finance/financial-markets/adrianblundell-wignall.htm">OECD</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
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<p>Former OECD official Adrian Blundell-Wignall said Australia’s coal exports create almost two and a half times the emissions Australians produce domestically. </p>
<p>“What is the point of moving to net zero on the latter while we do nothing on coal exports?” he asked. </p>
<p>His proposal, aired in the <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-an-australian-coal-tax-can-help-save-the-world-20231015-p5ecba">Australian Financial Review</a>, is for Australia to tax exports of the metallurgical coal used to make steel, forcing up the price and reducing global demand. Australia has 55% of the market.</p>
<p>If higher prices brought in more tax and resulted in less burning of metallurgical coal, it would be a win-win for Australia and the world.</p>
<p>Mark Cully, a former chief economist at the Australian industry department, said Australia should follow the lead of France, Denmark and Sweden and ban new fossil fuel projects.</p>
<p>The supply restriction would push up the relative price of fossil fuels and encourage a faster global take-up of renewable energy. </p>
<h2>Impose green tariffs on dirty imports</h2>
<p>Australia should also join the European Union in implementing a green tariff, the so-called <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/12/cbam-the-new-eu-decarbonization-incentive-and-what-you-need-to-know/">Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism</a> that imposed an emissions tax on imported goods whose emissions were not taxed in the country in which they were produced.</p>
<p>Cully said too much of Australia’s concern was directed to energy, a sector where emissions are genuinely beginning to fall. In other sectors, emissions have plateaued or are even rising, making it “inconceivable that Australia can meet its 43% reduction target by 2030, let alone net zero by 2050, without other high-volume emissions sectors contributing”.</p>
<p>Frank Jotzo, director of the Centre for Climate Economics at the Australian National University, said carbon pricing has to be complemented by targeted measures aimed at industries such as transport, building, agriculture and reforestation.</p>
<p>He said Australia will soon need to back measures that suck carbon dioxide back out of the atmosphere, acknowledging that many emissions will continue and will therefore need to be offset in order to get to net zero.</p>
<h2>Critical opportunity, but critical challenge</h2>
<p>University of Tasmania economist Joaquin Vespignani said state and federal governments should “invest” in the production of the so-called <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/critical-minerals-strategy-2023-2030/strategy-glance">critical minerals</a> that will be needed for decarbonisation via tax deductions.</p>
<p>Australia has more than 20% of the proven global reserves of minerals such as <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/king/media-releases/australias-lithium-powering-global-energy-transition">lithium</a> that are essential for clean energy production and storage.</p>
<p>Michael Knox of Morgans Financial noted the International Agency believed the world would need to ramp up its production of critical minerals to <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">three times</a> its present level by 2030. </p>
<p>Energy investment would need to <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">double</a>, and electricity transmission grids would need to roll out an extra two million kilometres of wire per year.</p>
<p>The Agency described the task as <a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/herculean">Herculean</a>. Knox said it was far from certain to be achieved. </p>
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<p><em>Individual responses. Click to open:</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin is Economics Editor of The Conversation.</span></em></p>30 of the 50 economists surveyed want a carbon price of the kind introduced by Julia Gillard in 2012 and abolished by Tony Abbott in 2014. Several say there’s little “time left to act seriously”.Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2123752023-09-05T02:53:51Z2023-09-05T02:53:51ZEvery country can make a difference – but carbon reductions need to be realistic and fair<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546126/original/file-20230904-15-cssrkf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5130%2C3409&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This weekend, the world’s major economies will convene in Delhi for the G20 summit. On the table will be the common goal of limiting global temperature rise as climate chaos becomes ever more evident.</p>
<p>When we talk about limiting climate change, we’re really talking about the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">global carbon budget</a> set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Basically, we have a two-thirds chance of holding global heating to 1.5°C if we keep future emissions under 400 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. At current emission rates, we’ve got just <a href="https://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/research/co2-budget.html">under five years</a> left before we blow through that limit. </p>
<p>As our <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/oecm/energy-pathways">new research</a> shows, getting to net zero isn’t going to be the same in each country. There are commonalities – halting new fossil fuel projects and funding renewables, storage and energy efficiency. But there will be significant differences in how manufacturing giants like China zero out emissions compared to India or Australia.</p>
<p>And then there’s the question of fairness. Some countries have emitted vastly more than others. If we divide up the remaining carbon budget while taking historic emissions into account, we find countries like America, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia have already gone past their fair carbon budgets. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, countries which have industrialised later like Mexico, China, Argentina, Turkey, India and Indonesia are sitting below their fair carbon budgets.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="china windfarm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some things are universal – boost renewables like this windfarm in China and steadily cut fossil fuel use. But there are many pathways to net zero.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>What’s new about this?</h2>
<p>The G20 account <a href="https://www.oecd.org/tax/g20-economies-are-pricing-more-carbon-emissions-but-stronger-globally-more-coherent-policy-action-is-needed-to-meet-climate-goals-says-oecd.htm#:%7E:text=G20%20economies%20account%20for%20around,of%20total%20G20%20GHG%20emissions.">for 80%</a> of the world’s emissions. If each of these countries ended their reliance on fossil fuels and other emissions sources, we’d be most of the way to tackling the climate crisis. </p>
<p>We took into account how much each country has emitted historically, from industrialisation to 2019, and population size. Then we devised a per capita carbon index, which gives developing countries with little historic responsibility for climate change a fair distribution of carbon from 2020 to 2050. We did this to show how every country can make this energy transition in a timeframe realistic to their circumstances.</p>
<p><iframe id="Fwkye" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Fwkye/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>India: minimal historic impact but rising fast</h2>
<p>The world’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/24/india-overtakes-china-to-become-worlds-most-populous-country">most populous</a> country has historically been a very low emitter, producing just 25% of China’s emissions from 1750–2019. But in recent decades, it has <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/india">begun to emit more</a> and its future emissions might rise substantially. </p>
<p>India has relied heavily on coal power, but its renewable sector is growing exceptionally fast. It’s now the <a href="https://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/GSR-2023_Energy-Supply-Module.pdf">fourth largest market</a> for solar, biomass and wind power </p>
<p>Steelmaking is rapidly growing. If this industry relies on old coal technology, it will add to emissions and eat away at the global carbon budget. New build steel plants should turn to hydrogen or other green steelmaking techniques. </p>
<p><strong>Power sector:</strong> not yet on track but positive trend</p>
<p><strong>Industry:</strong> not on track.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/africa-has-vast-gas-reserves-heres-how-to-stop-them-adding-to-climate-change-194473">Africa has vast gas reserves – here’s how to stop them adding to climate change</a>
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<h2>China: giant of emissions, manufacturing – and renewables</h2>
<p>China produces over 30% of the world’s emissions with 18% of its population, making it the world’s biggest. </p>
<p>The North Asian nation’s cement, steel, chemical and aluminium industries rely heavily on coal, producing 60% of the global energy-related emissions from each of these sectors – vastly more than America’s 10%. </p>
<p>Cleaning up its enormous industrial sector through green steelmaking and other new techniques will be actually be harder than getting off coal power. </p>
<p>On the positive side, China has emerged as the world’s leading nation in solar and wind energy deployment and manufacturing. It’s <a href="https://www.eiu.com/n/china-road-to-net-zero-reshape-the-country-and-the-world/">surging forward</a> on electric cars and long-distance rail.</p>
<p><strong>Power sector:</strong> decarbonising slowly, not yet on track</p>
<p><strong>Industrial sector:</strong> well off track</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="china heavy industry" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">China’s heavy industry will be hard to clean up.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>America: gas, inefficient cars and a clean energy boom</h2>
<p>The United States is the world’s largest single emitter of carbon emissions in the power sector, both historically as well as per capita. </p>
<p>Fossil gas plays a major role for power and heat generation, while America’s cars and trucks are the most inefficient in the world. The nation has just 4% of global population but its vehicles emit almost 25% of the world’s emissions from road transport. </p>
<p>The nation’s building sector accounts for 15% of all global emissions from buildings, due to large, inefficiently built houses and heating systems.</p>
<p>These sectors – power, transport and buildings – still need urgent attention. But, thankfully, America’s much-vaunted Inflation Reduction Act <a href="https://www.iea.org/policies/16156-inflation-reduction-act-of-2022">has triggered</a> an enormous investment boom in energy efficiency and renewable energy. </p>
<p><strong>Power sector:</strong> well on track to be largely decarbonised by 2040</p>
<p><strong>Transport and building sectors:</strong> not yet on track</p>
<h2>Australia: rich in renewables – and gas and coal</h2>
<p>Australia is one of the top five per capita emitters in the G20, both historically and today. Our relatively small population means we’re not one of the largest overall emitters. </p>
<p>Huge coal and gas reserves mean Australia has long profited from fossil fuel income. We’re the second largest coal exporter and <a href="https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/australias-lng-risk/">one of the top</a> liquefied natural gas exporters. </p>
<p>On the upside, Australia has some of the world’s best and largest solar and wind resources. We could play a leading role in the transition towards green steel and green hydrogen. At the rate things are going, we could decarbonise domestic energy supply in <a href="https://www.energynetworks.com.au/news/energy-insider/2022-energy-insider/hydrogen-super-power">just over</a> a decade. </p>
<p><strong>Power sector:</strong> broadly on track </p>
<p><strong>Transport sector:</strong> not yet on track</p>
<h2>Fair is possible – and necessary</h2>
<p>This weekend’s G20 summit gives an opportunity to build political momentum and formulate plans for concrete action among high-emitting countries. </p>
<p>An agreement to fairly split up the remaining carbon budget is unlikely, however, given <a href="https://www.g20.org/en/media-resources/press-releases/july-2023/etwgm-concludes/">debate over</a> whether cutting carbon will damage economic development in developing countries at the recent G20 meeting of foreign ministers.</p>
<p>It might be hard. But it is possible. Many rich countries have <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy-gdp-decoupling#:%7E:text=A%20number%20of%20rich%20countries,use%20per%20capita%20from%201995.">already broken</a> the link between GDP growth and energy demand. Developing countries can decarbonise while continuing to grow. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-roundup-how-the-world-can-stick-to-its-carbon-budget-fairly-194876">COP27 roundup: how the world can stick to its carbon budget fairly</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212375/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sven Teske receives funding fromthe European Climate Foundation, 23 Rue de la Science, 1040 Brussels, Belgium (grant number 2101-61369).</span></em></p>Our carbon budget is shrinking fast. We crunched the data to find pathways for G20 nations to act fasterSven Teske, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2022872023-03-24T13:27:04Z2023-03-24T13:27:04ZIPCC’s conservative nature masks true scale of action needed to avert catastrophic climate change<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">synthesis report</a> recently landed with an authoritative thump, giving voice to hundreds of scientists endeavouring to understand the unfolding calamity of global heating. What’s changed since the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf">last one in 2014</a>? Well, we’ve dumped an additional <a href="http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions">third of a trillion tonnes of CO₂</a> into the atmosphere, primarily from burning fossil fuels. While world leaders <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/paris-agreement-23382">promised</a> to cut global emissions, they have presided over a 5% rise.</p>
<p>The new report evokes a mild sense of urgency, calling on governments to mobilise finance to accelerate the uptake of green technology. But its conclusions are far removed from a direct interpretation of the IPCC’s own carbon budgets (the total amount of CO₂ scientists estimate can be put into the atmosphere for a given temperature rise).</p>
<p>The report <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/resources/spm-headline-statements/">claims</a> that, to maintain a 50:50 chance of warming not exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, CO₂ emissions must be cut to “net-zero” by the “early 2050s”. Yet, updating the IPCC’s estimate of the 1.5°C carbon budget, from <a href="https://climateuncensored.com/how-alive-is-1-5part-one-a-small-budget-shrinking-fast/">2020 to 2023</a>, and then drawing a straight line down from today’s total emissions to the point where all carbon emissions must cease, and without exceeding this budget, gives a zero CO₂ date of 2040. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517224/original/file-20230323-17-i8ar3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph with lines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517224/original/file-20230323-17-i8ar3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517224/original/file-20230323-17-i8ar3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517224/original/file-20230323-17-i8ar3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517224/original/file-20230323-17-i8ar3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517224/original/file-20230323-17-i8ar3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517224/original/file-20230323-17-i8ar3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517224/original/file-20230323-17-i8ar3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">If emissions stay at their current levels, we will exhaust the 50% chance of 1.5°C in 9 years. If we begin to immediately cut emissions following the blue line, then to stay within the carbon budget for 50:50 chance of not exceeding 1.5°C we need zero global emissions by 2040. The vertical axis represents how much carbon is emitted each year – note the pandemic-related blip in 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climateuncensored.com/how-alive-is-1-5part-one-a-small-budget-shrinking-fast/">Kevin Anderson / Climate Uncensored</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p><em>A full description of the above chart is available <a href="https://climateuncensored.com/how-alive-is-1-5part-one-a-small-budget-shrinking-fast/">here</a>.</em></p>
<p>Given it will take a few years to organise the necessary political structures and technical deployment, the date for eliminating all CO₂ emissions to remain within 1.5°C of warming comes closer still, to around the mid-2030s. This is a strikingly different level of urgency to that evoked by the IPCC’s “early 2050s”. Similar smoke and mirrors lie behind the “early 2070s” timeline the IPCC conjures for limiting global heating to 2°C.</p>
<h2>IPCC science embeds colonial attitudes</h2>
<p>For over two decades, the IPCC’s work on cutting emissions (what experts call “mitigation”) has been dominated by a particular group of modellers who use huge computer models to simulate what may happen to emissions under different assumptions, primarily related to price and technology. I’ve raised <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02744-9">concerns</a> before about how this select cadre, almost entirely based in wealthy, high-emitting nations, has <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aah4567">undermined</a> the necessary scale of emission reductions. </p>
<p>In 2023, I can no longer tiptoe around the sensibilities of those overseeing this bias. In my view, they have been as damaging to the agenda of cutting emissions as Exxon was in <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063">misleading the public</a> about climate science. The IPCC’s mitigation report in 2022 did include a chapter on “<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter05.pdf">demand, services and social aspects</a>” as a repository for alternative voices, but these were reduced to an inaudible whisper in the latest report’s influential <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf">summary for policymakers</a>.</p>
<p>The specialist modelling groups (referred to as Integrated Assessment Modelling, or IAMs) have successfully crowded out competing voices, reducing the task of mitigation to price-induced shifts in technology – some of the most important of which, like so-called “negative emissions technologies”, are barely out of the laboratory. </p>
<p>The IPCC offers many “scenarios” of future low-carbon energy systems and how we might get there from here. But as the work of academic <a href="https://theprint.in/environment/why-indian-scientists-are-critiquing-ipcc-report-unfair-burden-on-developing-countries/1298871/">Tejal Kanitkar and others</a> has made clear, not only do these scenarios prefer speculative technology tomorrow over deeply challenging policies today (effectively a greenwashed business-as-usual), they also systematically embed colonial attitudes towards “developing nations”. </p>
<p>With few if any exceptions, they maintain current levels of inequality between developed and developing nations, with several scenarios actually increasing the levels of inequality. Granted, many IAM modellers strive to work objectively, but they do so within deeply subjective boundaries established and preserved by those leading such groups.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Four people in formal attire converse on a stage behind a" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517190/original/file-20230323-1203-b5ui1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517190/original/file-20230323-1203-b5ui1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517190/original/file-20230323-1203-b5ui1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517190/original/file-20230323-1203-b5ui1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517190/original/file-20230323-1203-b5ui1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517190/original/file-20230323-1203-b5ui1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517190/original/file-20230323-1203-b5ui1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">March 2023’s synthesis report capped eight years of research.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://enb.iisd.org/58th-session-intergovernmental-panel-climate-change-ipcc-58-17Mar2023">IISD/ENB/Anastasia Rodopoulou</a></span>
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<h2>What happened to equity?</h2>
<p>If we step outside the rarefied realm of IAM scenarios that leading climate scientist Johan Rockström <a href="https://www.svd.se/a/kJbnQa/onsketankande-med-gron-tillvaxt-vi-maste-agera">describes</a> as “academic gymnastics that have nothing to do with reality”, it’s clear that not exceeding 1.5°C or 2°C will require <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/about/frequently-asked-questions/keyfaq6/">fundamental changes</a> to most facets of modern life.</p>
<p>Starting now, to not exceed 1.5°C of warming requires 11% year-on-year cuts in emissions, falling to nearer 5% for 2°C. However, these global average rates ignore the core concept of <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf">equity</a>, central to all UN climate negotiations, which gives “<a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf">developing country parties</a>” a little longer to decarbonise. </p>
<p>Include equity and most “developed” nations need to reach zero CO₂ emissions between 2030 and 2035, with developing nations following suit up to a decade later. Any delay will shrink these timelines still further.</p>
<p>Most IAM models ignore and <a href="https://osf.io/p46ty">often even exacerbate</a> the obscene inequality in energy use and emissions, both within nations and between individuals. As the International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-world-s-top-1-of-emitters-produce-over-1000-times-more-co2-than-the-bottom-1">recently reported</a>, the top 10% of emitters accounted for nearly half of global CO₂ emissions from energy use in 2021, compared with 0.2% for the bottom 10%. More disturbingly, the greenhouse gas emissions of the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-00955-z">top 1%</a> are 1.5 times those of the bottom half of the world’s population.</p>
<p>So where does this leave us? In wealthier nations, any hope of arresting global heating at 1.5 or 2°C demands a technical revolution on the scale of the post-war <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/marshall-plan">Marshall Plan</a>. Rather than relying on technologies such as direct air capture of CO₂ to mature in the near future, countries like the UK must rapidly deploy tried-and-tested technologies. </p>
<p>Retrofit housing stock, shift from mass ownership of combustion-engine cars to expanded zero-carbon public transport, electrify industries, build new homes to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_house"><em>Passivhaus</em></a> standard, roll-out a zero-carbon energy supply and, crucially, <a href="https://pure.manchester.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/213256008/Tyndall_Production_Phaseout_Report_final_text_3_.pdf">phase out fossil fuel production</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011104">Three decades of complacency</a> has meant technology on its own cannot now cut emissions fast enough. A second, accompanying phase, must be the rapid reduction of energy and material consumption. </p>
<p>Given deep inequalities, this, and deploying zero-carbon infrastructure, is only possible by re-allocating society’s productive capacity away from enabling the private luxury of a few and austerity for everyone else, and towards wider public prosperity and private sufficiency.</p>
<p>For most people, tackling climate change will bring multiple benefits, from affordable housing to secure employment. But for those few of us who have disproportionately benefited from the status quo, it means a profound reduction in how much energy we use and stuff we accumulate. </p>
<p>The question now is, will we high-consuming few make (voluntarily or by force) the fundamental changes needed for decarbonisation in a timely and organised manner? Or will we fight to maintain our privileges and let the rapidly changing climate do it, chaotically and brutally, for us?</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Anderson receives funding from UKRI and the Swedish Energy Agency, energimyndihete. Dr Dan Calverley helped formulate and edit this article, and along with Kevin Anderson, is a co-founder of Climate Uncensored (<a href="https://climateuncensored.com">https://climateuncensored.com</a>). Anderson has an active twitter account @KevinClimate. Climate Uncensored content is highlighted @Clim8Uncensored.</span></em></p>Climate models embed colonial attitudes and massive inequality.Kevin Anderson, Professor of Energy and Climate Change, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1944732022-11-15T17:18:09Z2022-11-15T17:18:09ZAfrica has vast gas reserves – here’s how to stop them adding to climate change<p>The question of whether Africa should be allowed to exploit its gas reserves, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1197585/natural-gas-reserves-in-africa-by-main-countries/">estimated</a> at more than 17.56 trillion cubic meters (620 trillion cubic feet) in 2021, has been much discussed at the latest UN climate change summit, COP27, in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. </p>
<p>Former US vice president Al Gore <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLTcC7srnLw">used his speech</a> at the opening session to urge an end to all fossil fuel investment globally, including in Africa. But Macky Sall, the president of Senegal and chairperson of the African Union, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rT-FNhK8BLc">argued</a> at the same event that Africa needs space in Earth’s dwindling carbon budget to use its resources for development.</p>
<p>The gas debate centres on two arguments, either for gas or against it. This is too narrow and fails to consider what development might look like for Africa and other regions that are struggling to grow their economies and address widespread poverty while also taking ambitious climate action. It also neglects the question of what kind of international cooperation might be necessary to make climate-compatible development possible.</p>
<p>Those who argue against expanding fossil gas extraction say that exploiting Africa’s reserves is incompatible with keeping average global temperature rise below 1.5°C, the “safe” limit agreed in Paris in 2015. Renewable energy is now the cheapest way to connect millions of people to power networks in countries where energy poverty is rife, they say. </p>
<p>It has also been suggested that widespread poverty in oil-rich countries such as Nigeria demonstrates how decades of oil and gas exploration have only benefited multinational corporations such as <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/germany-italy-misguided-investment-in-african-fossil-fuels-by-mohamed-adow-2022-07">Shell</a> and left few gains for most Africans. Investing in oil and gas now, it’s argued, will leave African countries holding stranded assets as Europe and North America pivot to wind, solar and other renewables.</p>
<p>Those in favour of exploiting Africa’s gas argue that industrialisation – for example, the building of modern transportation systems, hospitals and schools which developed countries enjoy – has relied on burning fossil fuels. Industrialised countries still consume a lot of gas. Germany, for instance, uses the fossil fuel to generate up to 30% of its <a href="https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts">power</a>.</p>
<p>Natural gas, it is held, could provide enough energy for industrial processes such as steel, cement, paper and pulp manufacturing which renewables such as solar and wind have <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/05/06/the-reason-renewables-cant-power-modern-civilization-is-because-they-were-never-meant-to/?sh=4ed533daea2b">yet to provide</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8245630/">study</a> published in 2021 found that a lack of finance, or the high cost of accessing it, imposes a huge gap between the theoretical and actual cost of generating renewable energy in Africa. And, if African countries are able to diversify their energy portfolio with gas it will, it is argued, increase energy resilience and strengthen the right of African countries to make their own decisions on energy generation, distribution and consumption in a way that they deem appropriate.</p>
<p>Proponents of gas point out that, historically, Africa has contributed the least to climate change, accounting for <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2">less than 4%</a> of the total stock of CO₂ in the atmosphere. If the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa tripled its electricity consumption from gas it would only <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/12-reasons-gas-africas-renewable-energy-future/">add 1%</a> to global CO₂ emissions. In comparison, the US has released more than 509 gigatonnes of CO₂ <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2">since 1850</a> and is responsible for 25% of the global total.</p>
<p>On this basis, it is <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/564715-climate-change-western-countries-are-hypocrites-cant-dictate-to-africa-buhari.html">argued</a> that developed countries are enacting a renewed form of colonialism – what some might call climate colonialism. This is because countries that developed using fossil fuels and continue to appropriate a disproportionate amount of the remaining carbon space in the atmosphere are seeking to stop Africans from using their abundant reserves of gas to address energy poverty challenges and fast track their development. </p>
<h2>Striking a balance</h2>
<p>The narrow view of either “no to gas” or “yes to gas” in Africa is largely unhelpful in framing the continent’s climate, energy and development challenges. What Africa urgently needs is a credible plan for oil-dependent economies to avoid the need to transition to gas in the long run. That must include technical and financial support to scale up renewables in all countries, so they can build self-reliant, prosperous economies.</p>
<p>Neither gas nor renewable energy on their own can do much to help Africa when so many countries <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1976ebc6-f366-42eb-ab18-e9c267d9abd6">depend</a> on foreign technology and investment to grow their economies. The crucial question for Africa at COP27 should be: what is the right package of assistance needed to expand modern and affordable energy, develop a competitive advantage in manufacturing renewable technologies and better manage resources in a climate-constrained world?</p>
<p>Many African countries such as Ghana and the Gambia already have ambitious climate targets, but these are conditional on the receipt of international support which is not forthcoming. Despite being an oil-dependent economy, Nigeria has a pledge to be carbon neutral by 2060. The cost of implementing this strategy is valued <a href="https://energytransition.gov.ng/">at US$1.9 trillion</a> (£1.59 trillion). In spite of high-level diplomacy by the vice president, Yemi Osinbajo, Nigeria has only managed to receive a promise of a one-off payment of <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/world-bank-us-pledge-3billion-as-nigeria-launches-transition-plan-for-climate-change-others/">US$3 billion</a> from the World Bank – but when this is supposed to be delivered has not been confirmed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A ground-mounted solar farm surrounded by trees and houses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495353/original/file-20221115-23-6rimv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">African nations need funding and expertise to exploit their renewable energy advantages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ground-mounted-solar-power-plants-africa-785799979">Sebastian Noethlichs/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The US thinktank Climate Policy Initiative has suggested that Africa needs an inflow of about <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/press-release/new-study-finds-that-climate-finance-for-africa-needs-to-grow-9x-from-usd-30-billion-to-usd-277-billion-to-meet-2030-climate-goal/#:%7E:text=CPI%2520estimates%2520that%2520Africa%2520requires,gap%2520is%2520likely%2520even%2520greater.">US$277 billion annually</a> to implement the plans contained in each country’s emissions reduction pledge. But the continent currently only receives something in the region of about <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/press-release/new-study-finds-that-climate-finance-for-africa-needs-to-grow-9x-from-usd-30-billion-to-usd-277-billion-to-meet-2030-climate-goal/#:%7E:text=CPI%2520estimates%2520that%2520Africa%2520requires,gap%2520is%2520likely%2520even%2520greater.">US$30 billion a year</a>. </p>
<p>Africa could be world-leading in renewable energy generation if provided with the right technology and financial assistance. The continent has big advantages when it comes to renewable energy generation – ranging from solar, hydroelectricity, wind and geothermal energy. The International Energy Agency says Africa has 1% of the world’s total installed solar power capacity, despite the fact that, it has <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/africa-energy-outlook-2022/key-findings">60%</a> of the world’s most promising areas to generate solar energy.</p>
<p>Calls to cease all gas exploration in Africa that fail to account for where historical responsibility for climate change lies and the need to close the current finance gap are the most audacious kind of climate imperialism. COP27 must unlock trillions of dollars in large-scale renewable energy investments and generate new economic opportunities for Africa – or it will have failed.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 10,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chukwumerije Okereke receives funding from the UK Economic and Social Sciences Research Council and European Climate Foundation. He is affiliated with Alex Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu-Alike Nigeria, University of Oxford, UK, Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP), Nigeria and Oxford Brookes University, UK. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Youba Sokona does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Developed nations threaten to consume more than their fair share of Earth’s dwindling carbon budget.Chukwumerije Okereke, Professor of Environment and Development, University of ReadingYouba Sokona, Vice-président du GIEC et professeur honoraire, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1931082022-11-11T00:01:25Z2022-11-11T00:01:25ZGlobal carbon emissions at record levels with no signs of shrinking, new data shows. Humanity has a monumental task ahead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494589/original/file-20221110-11066-sggumg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C21%2C4840%2C3209&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marcin Jozwiak/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global carbon dioxide emissions from all human activities remain at record highs in 2022, and fossil fuel emissions have risen above pre-pandemic levels, according to a new analysis by an international body of scientists. </p>
<p>The analysis, by the <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org">Global Carbon Project</a>, calculates Earth’s “<a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022">carbon budget</a>”, which is how much CO₂ humans have released, and how much has been removed from the atmosphere by the oceans and land ecosystems. From there, we calculate how much carbon can still be emitted into the atmosphere before Earth exceeds the crucial 1.5°C global warming threshold.</p>
<p>This year, the world is projected to emit 40.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ from all human activities, leaving 380 billion tonnes of CO₂ as the remaining carbon budget. This amount of emissions is disastrous for the climate – at current levels, there is a 50% chance the planet will reach the 1.5°C global average temperature rise in just nine years. </p>
<p>We’ve seen significant progress towards decarbonisation and emission reduction from some sectors and countries, particularly in <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it-190241">renewable electricity</a> generation. Yet, as world leaders gather for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-things-a-climate-scientist-wants-world-leaders-to-know-ahead-of-cop27-193534">COP27 climate change summit</a> in Egypt this week, the overall global effort remains vastly insufficient. </p>
<p>Humanity must urgently cut global emissions if we are to retain any hope of averting the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493661/original/file-20221106-52309-e3mlth.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493661/original/file-20221106-52309-e3mlth.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493661/original/file-20221106-52309-e3mlth.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493661/original/file-20221106-52309-e3mlth.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493661/original/file-20221106-52309-e3mlth.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493661/original/file-20221106-52309-e3mlth.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493661/original/file-20221106-52309-e3mlth.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493661/original/file-20221106-52309-e3mlth.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carbon budgets to 1.5°C, 1.7°C and 2°C global mean temperature, with emissions remaining of 380 billion tonnes CO₂, 730 billion tonnes CO₂, and 1,230 billion tonnes CO₂, respectively. These will be consumed in 9, 18 and 30 years if current emissions persist, starting in 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Global Carbon Project 2022</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Coal and oil emissions up, gas down, deforestation slowing</h2>
<p>Based on preliminary data, we project that CO₂ emissions from coal, natural gas, oil, and cement use (fossil emissions) will increase by 1% in 2022 from <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-emissions-almost-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels-after-unprecedented-drop-in-2020-new-analysis-shows-170866">2021 levels</a>, reaching 36.6 billion tonnes. This means 2022 fossil emissions will be at an all-time high, and slightly above the pre-pandemic levels of 36.3 billion tonnes <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-emissions-to-hit-36-8-billion-tonnes-beating-last-years-record-high-128113">in 2019</a>. </p>
<p>Let’s put the 2022 growth of 1% (or around 300 million metric tonnes) into perspective:</p>
<ul>
<li>it’s the equivalent to <a href="https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-typical-passenger-vehicle">adding an extra 70 million</a> US cars to the world’s roads for a year</li>
<li>it’s higher than the 0.5% average yearly growth of the last decade (2012-2021)</li>
<li>but it’s smaller than the 2.9% average yearly growth during the 2000s (which was largely due to China’s rapid economic growth) </li>
<li>it’s also smaller than the 2.1% average yearly growth of the last 60 years. </li>
</ul>
<p>So, in relative terms, the global growth in fossil CO₂ emissions is at least slowing down.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-the-big-issue-of-cop27-climate-summit-poor-nations-face-a-1trillion-loss-and-damage-bill-but-rich-nations-wont-pay-up-194043">It’s the big issue of COP27 climate summit: poor nations face a $1 trillion ‘loss and damage’ bill, but rich nations won’t pay up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The growth in fossil emissions this year is largely due to higher oil and coal use – particularly oil, as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-aviation-industry-must-look-beyond-carbon-to-get-serious-about-climate-change-186947">aviation industry</a> is strongly bouncing back from the pandemic.</p>
<p>Coal emissions have also increased this year in response to higher natural gas prices and shortages in <a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-energy-war-putins-unpredictable-actions-and-looming-sanctions-could-further-disrupt-oil-and-gas-markets-190227">natural gas supply</a>. Unexpectedly, there is the possibility that coal emissions this year will be higher than the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-coal-use-may-have-peaked-iea-world-enery-outlook/">historical peak in 2014</a>. </p>
<p>Another major source of global CO₂ emissions is land-use change – the net balance between deforestation and reforestation. We project 3.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ will be released overall this year (though we should note that data uncertainties are higher for land-use change emissions than for fossil CO₂ emissions).</p>
<p>While land-use change emissions remain high, we’ve seen a slight decline over the past two decades largely due to increased reforestation. Rates of deforestation worldwide, however, are still high.</p>
<p>Together, fossil fuel and land-use change are responsible for 40.6 billion tonnes of CO₂.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493981/original/file-20221107-21-jd8qq0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493981/original/file-20221107-21-jd8qq0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493981/original/file-20221107-21-jd8qq0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493981/original/file-20221107-21-jd8qq0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493981/original/file-20221107-21-jd8qq0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493981/original/file-20221107-21-jd8qq0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493981/original/file-20221107-21-jd8qq0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493981/original/file-20221107-21-jd8qq0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global fossil and land-use change CO₂ emissions (Gigatons of CO₂ = billion tons of CO₂).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Global Carbon Project 2022</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Nations responding to multiple turmoils</h2>
<p>The US and India are responsible for the largest increases in CO₂ fossil emissions this year. </p>
<p>US emissions are projected to increase by 1.5%. While natural gas and oil emissions are higher, emissions from coal continue on a long downward trend. India’s fossil CO₂ emissions are projected to increase by 6%, largely due to an increase in coal use.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel sources in China and the European Union are projected to decline this year by 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tensions-and-war-undermine-climate-cooperation-but-theres-a-silver-lining-193847">Tensions and war undermine climate cooperation – but there's a silver lining</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>China’s decline is mainly due to the nation’s <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/09/china/china-covid-guangzhou-lockdown-intl-hnk/index.html">continuing pandemic lockdowns</a>, which have subdued economic activity. This includes a marked slowdown in the construction sector and its associated lower cement production. </p>
<p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is projected to lead to a 10% decline in the European Union’s CO₂ emissions from natural gas in 2022, as a result of supply shortages. The gas shortage has been partially replaced with greater coal consumption, leading to an increase of 6.7% in coal emissions in Europe.</p>
<p>The rest of the world accounts for 42% of global fossil CO₂ emissions, and this is expected to grow by 1.7% this year. </p>
<p>Indonesia, Brazil and the Democratic Republic of the Congo contribute 58% of global CO₂ emissions from net land-use change.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493665/original/file-20221106-23-o9f8cw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493665/original/file-20221106-23-o9f8cw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493665/original/file-20221106-23-o9f8cw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493665/original/file-20221106-23-o9f8cw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493665/original/file-20221106-23-o9f8cw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493665/original/file-20221106-23-o9f8cw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493665/original/file-20221106-23-o9f8cw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493665/original/file-20221106-23-o9f8cw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global fossil CO₂ emissions from the top emitters and the rest of the world, with preliminary estimates for 2022 (GtCO₂ = billion tons of CO₂). Source: Friedlinsgtein et al. 2022; Global Carbon Project 2022.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Natural carbon sinks get bigger, but feel the heat</h2>
<p>Ocean and land act as CO₂ sinks. The ocean absorbs CO₂ as it dissolves in seawater. On land, plants absorb CO₂ and and build it into their trunks, branches, leaves and soils. </p>
<p>This makes ocean and land sinks a crucial part of regulating the global climate. Our data shows that on average, land and ocean sinks remove about half of all CO₂ emissions from human activities, acting like a 50% discount on climate change.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-more-excuses-restoring-nature-is-not-a-silver-bullet-for-global-warming-we-must-cut-emissions-outright-186048">No more excuses: restoring nature is not a silver bullet for global warming, we must cut emissions outright</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/no-more-excuses-restoring-nature-is-not-a-silver-bullet-for-global-warming-we-must-cut-emissions-outright-186048">Despite this help</a> from nature, the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ continues to climb. In 2022 it’ll reach a projected average of 417.2 parts per million. This is 51% above pre-industrial levels and higher than any time in the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-5/">past 800,000 years</a>.</p>
<p>Carbon sinks are getting larger because there is more CO₂ in the atmosphere for them to absorb. And yet, the impacts of climate change (such as overall warming, increased climate extremes, and changes in ocean circulation) have made land and ocean sinks, respectively, 17% and 4% smaller than they could have grown during 2012-2021.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494595/original/file-20221110-23-eztluc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="River meandering through a forest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494595/original/file-20221110-23-eztluc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494595/original/file-20221110-23-eztluc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494595/original/file-20221110-23-eztluc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494595/original/file-20221110-23-eztluc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494595/original/file-20221110-23-eztluc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494595/original/file-20221110-23-eztluc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494595/original/file-20221110-23-eztluc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carbon sinks, such as rainforests, absorb half the CO₂ emissions released by human activities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ivars Utinans/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There’s been significant progress this year in deployment of renewable energy, policy development, and commitments from governments and corporations to new, more ambitious climate mitigation targets. </p>
<p>We must urgently reach net-zero CO₂ emissions to keep global warming well below 2°C this century. But humanity’s massive emissions in 2022 underscores the monumental and urgent task ahead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193108/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Corinne Le Quéré receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 821003 (4C), from the UN Natural Environment Research Council under grant NE/V011103/1 (Frontiers), and from the UK Royal Society under grant RP\R1\191063 (Research Professorship. Corinne Le Quéré Chairs the French High council on climate and is a member of the UK Climate Change Committee. Her position here is her own and does not necessarily reflect that of these groups.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Peters receives funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C), 820846 (PARIS REINFORCE), and 958927 (CoCO2). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Judith Hauck receives funding from the Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association (Helmholtz Young Investigator Group Marine Carbon and Ecosystem Feedbacks in the Earth System, MarESys, grant number VH-NG-1301)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philippe Ciais' institute receives funding for research from French National Research Agency, European Commission and private organizations. All the results of the research are published in peer reviewed literature.
Philippe Ciais is a part time professor at the public research organization of The Cyprus Institute</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierre Friedlingstein receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 821003 (4C)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robbie Andrew receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C), 820846 (PARIS REINFORCE), and 958927 (CoCO2) and from the Norwegian Environment Agency. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Jackson receives funding from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the California Energy Commission.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Pongratz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>At current levels of emissions, there is a 50% chance the planet will reach the 1.5°C global average temperature rise in just nine years.Pep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROCorinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science, University of East AngliaGlen Peters, Research Director, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloJudith Hauck, Helmholtz Young Investigator group leader and deputy head of the Marine Biogeosciences section at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Universität BremenJulia Pongratz, Professor of Physical Geography and Land Use Systems, Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University of MunichPhilippe Ciais, Directeur de recherche au Laboratoire des science du climat et de l’environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)Pierre Friedlingstein, Chair, Mathematical Modelling of Climate, University of ExeterRobbie Andrew, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloRob Jackson, Professor, Department of Earth System Science, and Chair of the Global Carbon Project, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1897292022-11-10T17:40:48Z2022-11-10T17:40:48ZEngland’s housing strategy carries a high carbon cost – unless politicians are willing to change plans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488773/original/file-20221007-26-vj4ru0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The government's response to the housing crisis has been to build more homes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/construction-worker-wearing-safety-harness-line-1911747679">M2020/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>England’s housing sector accounts for <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/uk-housing-fit-for-the-future/">20% of the country’s emissions</a>. Its stock is outdated and <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Policies-for-the-Sixth-Carbon-Budget-and-Net-Zero.pdf">efforts</a> to improve the energy efficiency of England’s homes are limited.</p>
<p>The country also has a housing crisis. Successive governments have responded to this by building more homes. The current government wants <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7671/CBP-7671.pdf">300,000 extra homes</a> built each year, coupled with adding <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/final-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics-1990-to-2019">energy-efficiency measures</a> to existing homes.</p>
<p>But our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800922002245">research</a> demonstrates that, based on current trends, England’s housing strategy could consume our entire <a href="https://cusp.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/WP-29-Zero-Carbon-Sooner-update.pdf">carbon budget</a> by 2050. This is England‘s share of the global emissions required to limit global heating to 1.5°C by 2050, as agreed as part of the Paris Agreement. The majority would be consumed by the emissions of existing stock, with the remainder mainly arising from the construction of new homes.</p>
<p>Meeting society’s housing needs without causing lasting damage to the environment is a challenge. Retrofitting existing homes, providing social housing, reducing second-home ownership and disincentivising the purchase of homes as a financial investment are all possible solutions.</p>
<h2>Addressing housing emissions</h2>
<p>Around 54% of England’s homes are so energy inefficient that the Climate Change Committee – the UK’s independent advisor on climate change – <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1060141/2020-21_EHS_Headline_Report_revised.pdf">recommends</a> they must be retrofitted by 2028 to achieve national climate targets. Addressing the emissions of the existing stock is an important step. </p>
<p>This would involve radical <a href="https://greathomesupgrade.org/">energy efficiency measures</a> and the decarbonisation of heating and electricity systems, such as widespread adoption of low-carbon alternatives such as ground source heat pumps and the installation of solar panels. We estimate that if the existing homes become zero carbon by 2050, the housing system would consume 38% less of the carbon budget than currently forecast.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A cross section graphic of an energy efficient house." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493457/original/file-20221104-15-gdma2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493457/original/file-20221104-15-gdma2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493457/original/file-20221104-15-gdma2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493457/original/file-20221104-15-gdma2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493457/original/file-20221104-15-gdma2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493457/original/file-20221104-15-gdma2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493457/original/file-20221104-15-gdma2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An energy efficient eco-house.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/contemporary-energy-efficient-isometric-eco-house-1085571590">elenabsl/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tackling the emissions from new homes is more complex. The conventional narrative surrounding the housing crisis is that it is caused by a shortage of housing. This creates a trade-off between the climate and the social priority of building homes. </p>
<p>Consecutive governments have reacted by accelerated housing construction. This resulted in there being <a href="https://housingevidence.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/20190820b-CaCHE-Housing-Supply-FINAL.pdf">1.2 million</a> more houses in England than there were households in 2019. Despite this, homes cost <a href="https://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi/browse?from=2000-01-01&location=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fengland&to=2022-08-01&lang=en">314% more</a> on average in August 2022 than in January 2000.</p>
<h2>Why is housing so expensive?</h2>
<p>The financial dynamics of the English housing market and inequality of access to it offer an alternative explanation for the crisis. </p>
<p>Financial deregulation and liberalisation in the 1980s made it much easier for a wider range of people to get mortgages. Mortgage lending quadrupled from roughly 15% of the UK’s GDP in the 1960s to around <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ser/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ser/mwab041/6413687?login=false">60% by 2008</a>. With more credit flowing towards an inelastic supply of new housing, the unsurprising result was inflated house prices. </p>
<p>But unlike most commodities, where rising prices lead to falling demand, high house prices instead create further demand for mortgage credit as housing is also valued as an investment. This creates a <a href="https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fjournals.sagepub.com%2Fdoi%2Fabs%2F10.1177%2F0308518X19862811%3FjournalCode%3Depna&data=05%7C01%7Cj.ryan-collins%40ucl.ac.uk%7C42314b4e24c740584bcb08da90e78863%7C1faf88fea9984c5b93c9210a11d9a5c2%7C0%7C0%7C637981621777972793%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=xL8FDLd5zlIPNkJb90Sc5CGVqpQuDXSHvX5hGSlFEkk%3D&reserved=0">positive feedback loop</a> whereby subsequent price rises encourage people to enter the housing market to benefit from higher prices.</p>
<p>Domestic and foreign investors also entered the market, competing with ordinary homeowners to maintain high prices. From 2014 to 2016, <a href="https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/117771/8/GLA_version_University_of_York_data_report_amend_060617aw_no_track_changes.pdf">13% of all homes purchased</a> in London were bought by overseas investors. </p>
<p>High house prices also exacerbate inequalities in access to housing. Buyers who already own property can secure additional mortgage loans at favourable rates, beating first-time buyers to available stock. </p>
<p>But many houses are unoccupied, or rarely used. Around <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/898190/2020_EHS_second_homes_factsheet.pdf">500,000 second homes</a> in England have owners that do not choose to rent them out, while the amount of homes owned by people registered abroad has trebled to <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stop-property-being-used-for-economic-crime-demand-mps-ngdjzs9zf">250,000</a> since 2010. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of white houses on top of a cliff overlooking the sea against a clear blue sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492813/original/file-20221101-16-zf8z24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492813/original/file-20221101-16-zf8z24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492813/original/file-20221101-16-zf8z24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492813/original/file-20221101-16-zf8z24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492813/original/file-20221101-16-zf8z24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492813/original/file-20221101-16-zf8z24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492813/original/file-20221101-16-zf8z24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">500,000 second homes are unavailable for rent in England.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/coverack-cornwall-england-uk-5934898">David Hughes/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Solutions to the housing crisis</h2>
<p>Without addressing these issues, many new homes will remain unaffordable and continue to satisfy primarily the demands of wealthy homeowners, while locking in further carbon emissions. Only strategies that create fairer access to buying homes will ensure everyone’s housing needs are satisfied. </p>
<p>There are several ways to achieve this at a minimal environmental cost. </p>
<p>Existing housing space can be used more efficiently. By taxing second and foreign-owned homes, the over-consumption of housing could be discouraged. The impact on demand would reduce prices and release stock onto the market.</p>
<p>Taxation has been used to curb soaring house prices in Canada. In 2016, British Columbia’s government imposed a 15% tax on foreign entities buying residential property in <a href="http://www.brightblue.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/BB_Property-Taxes-Report-May-2021_prf06b.pdf">Vancouver</a>. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1051137721000620">Research</a> indicates that this tax reduced house prices in Vancouver by 5% from 2016 to 2017. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492816/original/file-20221101-26796-96njxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Vancouver skyline at sunset with the silhouette of the mountains in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492816/original/file-20221101-26796-96njxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492816/original/file-20221101-26796-96njxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492816/original/file-20221101-26796-96njxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492816/original/file-20221101-26796-96njxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492816/original/file-20221101-26796-96njxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492816/original/file-20221101-26796-96njxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492816/original/file-20221101-26796-96njxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taxation on foreign property buyers has been introduced in Vancouver.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/vancouver-city-skyline-night-british-columbia-573307366">TRphotos/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Accelerating the construction of <a href="https://www.housing.org.uk/globalassets/files/people-in-housing-need/people-in-housing-need-2021_summary.pdf">new social housing</a> to cater specifically for those who could not otherwise afford housing is another method. New construction should also conform to strict emissions standards to avoid adding future decarbonisation costs.</p>
<h2>Economy based on house prices</h2>
<p>But England’s economy is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0308518X19862811">structurally dependent</a> on house price rises. Measures to restrict financial speculation and release existing housing space to meet ordinary people’s needs receive little attention in government policy.</p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=9md-DwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT6&dq=Why+cant+you+Afford+a+Home&ots=V6iswYEb37&sig=Auzcmc5TXq7YyTDWuCxI2e-N_ck&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Why%20cant%20you%20Afford%20a%20Home&f=false">Almost half</a> of all bank assets in the UK are tied up in property. Falling house prices would have serious implications on the financial sector’s willingness to provide credit.</p>
<p>Many homeowners have also <a href="https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10025890/1/Gallent_TPR%20Submission%20-%2023%20October%202017%20-%20Accepted.pdf">gambled on rising housing prices</a> to justify large mortgage debts or to ensure decent assets for themselves for when they retire. </p>
<p>Homeowners also represent <a href="https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/housing/owning-and-renting/home-ownership/latest#main-facts-and-figures">63%</a> of the population, according to figures from 2018, and are a powerful political voice. The UK property lobby, for example, donated over <a href="https://www.transparency.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf/publications/House%20of%20Cards%20-%20Transparency%20International%20UK%20%28web%29.pdf">£60 million</a> to the Conservative party from 2010 to 2020. There is a clear political incentive to maintain high house prices, with political parties in direct <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ser/article-abstract/18/4/913/5051712?login=false">competition</a> for the support of homeowners.</p>
<p>There are political and economic barriers to moving towards fairer housing policies. But these challenges are not insurmountable. One way would be to reform the pensions system to reduce individuals’ dependence on house prices for their financial security.</p>
<p>In combination with measures to <a href="https://neweconomics.org/2020/07/a-national-house-retrofitting-programme">retrofit the existing stock</a> it would be possible to move towards a future where society’s housing needs are met without exceeding environmental limits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189729/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>England’s housing strategy will consume our entire carbon budget by 2050 – there are alternatives, but they face political and economic barriers.Sophus zu Ermgassen, PhD Researcher, Durrell Institute for Conservation and Ecology, University of KentChristine Corlet Walker, Doctoral researcher, Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity, University of SurreyJosh Ryan-Collins, Head of Finance and Macroeconomics, Institute of Innovation and Public Purpose, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795692022-04-12T20:01:44Z2022-04-12T20:01:44ZTo make our wardrobes sustainable, we must cut how many new clothes we buy by 75%<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457063/original/file-20220408-26832-fnto70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C2107%2C1409&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If things don’t change fast, the fashion industry <a href="https://www.stockholmresilience.org/download/18.66e0efc517643c2b8103605/1617805679501/Sustainable%20Textiles%20Synthesis%20Report.pdf">could</a> use a quarter of the world’s remaining global carbon budget to keep warming under 2°C by 2050, and use 35% more land to produce fibres by 2030. </p>
<p>While this seems incredible, it’s not. Over the past 15 years, clothing production <a href="https://archive.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/explore/fashion-and-the-circular-economy">has doubled</a> while the length of time we actually wear these clothes has fallen by nearly 40%. In the EU, falling prices have seen people buying <a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/textiles-in-europes-circular-economy">more clothing</a> than ever before while spending less money in the process.</p>
<p>This is not sustainable. Something has to give. In our <a href="https://eeb.org/library/wellbeing-wardrobe-a-wellbeing-economy-for-the-fashion-and-textile-sector-summary">recent report</a>, we propose the idea of a wellbeing wardrobe, a new way forward for fashion in which we favour human and environmental wellbeing over ever-growing consumption of throwaway fast-fashion. </p>
<p>What would that look like? It would mean each of us cutting how many new clothes we buy by as much as <a href="https://katefletcher.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Earth-Logic-plan-FINAL.pdf">75%</a>, buying clothes designed to last, and recycling clothes at the end of their lifetime. </p>
<p>For the sector, it would mean tackling low incomes for the people who make the clothes, as well as support measures for workers who could lose jobs during a transition to a more sustainable industry. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457067/original/file-20220408-12027-ul3wn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Garment workers in Bangladesh, 2021" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457067/original/file-20220408-12027-ul3wn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457067/original/file-20220408-12027-ul3wn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457067/original/file-20220408-12027-ul3wn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457067/original/file-20220408-12027-ul3wn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457067/original/file-20220408-12027-ul3wn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457067/original/file-20220408-12027-ul3wn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457067/original/file-20220408-12027-ul3wn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fast fashion comes at a cost.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sustainability efforts by industry are simply not enough</h2>
<p>Fashion is accelerating. Fast fashion is being replaced by <a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/fashion/2021/dec/21/how-shein-beat-amazon-at-its-own-game-and-reinvented-fast-fashion">ultra-fast fashion</a>, releasing unprecedented volumes of new clothes into the market. </p>
<p>Since the start of the year, fast fashion giants H&M and Zara have launched <a href="https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/retail/why-shein-might-be-worth-100-billion-in-four-charts">around 11,000 new styles</a> combined. </p>
<p>Over the same time, ultra-fast fashion brand Shein has released a staggering 314,877 styles. Shein is currently the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-05/shein-is-the-new-darling-of-china-s-fast-fashion-industry-but-at/100964524">most popular shopping app in Australia</a>. As you’d expect, this acceleration is producing a tremendous amount of waste. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-can-only-do-so-much-we-asked-fast-fashion-shoppers-how-ethical-concerns-shape-their-choices-172978">'I can only do so much': we asked fast-fashion shoppers how ethical concerns shape their choices</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In response, the fashion industry has devised a raft of plans to tackle the issue. The problem is many sustainability initiatives still place economic opportunity and growth before environmental concerns. </p>
<p>Efforts such as switching to more sustainable fibres and textiles and offering ethically-conscious options are commendable. Unfortunately, they do very little to actually confront the sector’s rapidly increasing consumption of resources and waste generation. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pile of clothes in landfill" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456532/original/file-20220406-11-bicez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456532/original/file-20220406-11-bicez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456532/original/file-20220406-11-bicez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456532/original/file-20220406-11-bicez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456532/original/file-20220406-11-bicez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456532/original/file-20220406-11-bicez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456532/original/file-20220406-11-bicez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Textile waste fills landfill in Bangladesh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Swapan Photography/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On top of this, <a href="https://cleanclothes.org/news">labour rights abuses</a> of workers in the supply chain are rife. </p>
<p>Over the past five years, the industry’s issues of child labour, discrimination and forced labour have worsened globally. Major garment manufacturing countries including Myanmar, Cambodia, Bangladesh and Vietnam are considered an <a href="https://www.maplecroft.com/insights/analysis/worldwide-decline-in-labour-rights-strikes-at-heart-of-global-supply-chains/">“extreme risk”</a> for modern slavery. </p>
<p>Here’s what we can do to tackle the situation. </p>
<h2>1. Limit resource use and consumption</h2>
<p>We need to have serious conversations between industry, consumers and governments about limiting resource use in the fashion industry. As a society, we need to talk about how much clothing <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629620304564?via%3Dihub">is enough</a> to live well. </p>
<p>On an individual level, it means buying fewer new clothes, as well as reconsidering where we get our clothes from. Buying secondhand clothes or using rental services are ways of changing your wardrobe with lower impact. </p>
<h2>2. Expand the slow fashion movement</h2>
<p>The growing <a href="https://slowfashion.global/">slow fashion movement</a> focuses on the quality of garments over quantity, and favours classic styles over fleeting trends.</p>
<p>We must give renewed attention to repairing and caring for clothes we already own to extend their lifespan, such as by reviving sewing, mending and other long-lost skills. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Person browses second hand clothes at market" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456535/original/file-20220406-18-wk6xgu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456535/original/file-20220406-18-wk6xgu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456535/original/file-20220406-18-wk6xgu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456535/original/file-20220406-18-wk6xgu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456535/original/file-20220406-18-wk6xgu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456535/original/file-20220406-18-wk6xgu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456535/original/file-20220406-18-wk6xgu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Shopping for secondhand clothes at vintage market.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Antonello Marangi/Shutterstock,</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. New systems of exchange</h2>
<p>The wellbeing wardrobe would mean shifting away from existing fashion business models and embracing new systems of exchange, such as collaborative consumption models, co-operatives, not-for-profit social enterprises and <a href="https://www.bcorporation.net/en-us/certification">B-corps</a>. </p>
<p>What are these? Collaborative consumption models involve sharing or renting clothing, while social enterprises and B-corps are businesses with purposes beyond making a profit, such as ensuring living wages for workers and minimising or eliminating environmental impacts. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/following-a-t-shirt-from-cotton-field-to-landfill-shows-the-true-cost-of-fast-fashion-127363">Following a t-shirt from cotton field to landfill shows the true cost of fast fashion</a>
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<hr>
<p>There are also methods that don’t rely on money, such as swapping or borrowing clothes with friends and altering or redesigning clothes in repair cafes and sewing circles. </p>
<h2>4. Diversity in clothing cultures</h2>
<p>Finally, as consumers we must nurture a diversity of clothing cultures, including incorporating the knowledge of <a href="https://www.russh.com/creator-of-australian-indigenous-fashion-yatu-widders-hunt-on-telling-stories-and-the-future-of-fashion/">Indigenous fashion design</a>, which has respect for the environment at its core. </p>
<p>Communities of exchange should be encouraged to recognise the cultural value of clothing, and to rebuild emotional connections with garments and support long-term use and care. </p>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>Shifting fashion from a perpetual growth model to a sustainable approach will not be easy. Moving to a post-growth fashion industry would require policymakers and the industry to bring in a wide range of reforms, and re-imagine roles and responsibilities in society. </p>
<p>You might think this is too hard. But the status quo of constant growth cannot last. </p>
<p>It’s better we act to shape the future of fashion and work towards a wardrobe good for people and planet – rather than let a tidal wave of wasted clothing soak up resources, energy and our very limited carbon budget.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179569/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Sharpe receives funding from various government and non-government organisations. This research was funded by the European Environment Bureau. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Monique Retamal receives research funding from various government and non-government organisations. This research was funded by the European Environmental Bureau.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Taylor Brydges receives research funding from various government and non-government organisations. This research was funded by the European Environmental Bureau.</span></em></p>The environmental footprint of the fashion industry is rising rapidly. Drastic changes are needed to make the sector more sustainable and equitable.Samantha Sharpe, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyMonique Retamal, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyTaylor Brydges, Research Principal, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1691222021-11-04T14:22:13Z2021-11-04T14:22:13ZClimate clock reset shows the world is one year closer to 1.5 C warming threshold<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430088/original/file-20211103-21-o0jxfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C80%2C5991%2C3907&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">According to recent estimates, only 500 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide can be emitted from 2020 onwards if we are to stay below the 1.5 C threshold. Global emissions have already hit 80 billion tonnes since then.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali) </span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/climate-clock-reset-shows-the-world-is-one-year-closer-to-1-5-c-warming-threshold" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org">Global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase to almost 2019 levels this year</a>, upending last year’s unprecedented drop caused by COVID-19 lockdowns. This means that emissions are trending upwards again, when they should be in rapid decline if we are to meet the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.</p>
<p>We created the <a href="https://climateclock.net">Climate Clock</a> in 2015 to show how quickly we are approaching 1.5 C, the lower limit of the Paris Agreement global temperature goal and a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">consequential threshold for climate impacts</a>. </p>
<p>The clock tracks global emissions and temperature data, and uses the most recent five-year emissions trend to estimate how much time is left until global warming reaches the 1.5 C threshold. The new estimate of 2021 emissions removes almost a year from the countdown, which means that we are now only a little more than 10 years from 1.5 C. </p>
<p><style>.climate-clock{position:relative;padding-bottom:120%;height:0;overflow:hidden;max-width:100%;}.climate-clock iframe{position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;}@media(min-width:700px){.climate-clock{padding-bottom:56.25%;}}</style></p><div class="climate-clock"><p></p>
<iframe src="https://embed.climateclock.net?buttons=1&audio=0" style="border:0" ,="" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p></p></div><p></p>
<h2>Tracking global warming in real time</h2>
<p>The Climate Clock is a way to visualize and measure progress towards our global climate targets. The date moves closer in time as emissions rise or pushes further back as they decrease. Each year, we have updated the clock to reflect the latest global data, as well as our improving scientific understanding of what level of emissions is required to limit warming to 1.5 C. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-climate-clock-counting-down-to-1-5-107498">The Climate Clock: Counting down to 1.5℃</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This year’s clock reset uses three sets of updated data. First, new estimates of global temperature increase from the Sixth Assessment Report of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC) show that human greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for virtually all of the observed warming of the climate system. We use the estimate of human-induced global warming from <a href="https://globalwarmingindex.org">the Global Warming Index</a>, which as of November 2021 has reached 1.24 C above the 1850-1900 average temperature.</p>
<p>Second, the Global Carbon Project projects global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2021 will increase by 4.9 per cent from 2020, after a 5.4 per cent drop between 2019 and 2020. We use the most recent five years of data to project the global trend in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, while assuming that additional carbon dioxide emissions from land-use will remain constant at the average level over the past five years. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429369/original/file-20211029-15-1qxqyip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429369/original/file-20211029-15-1qxqyip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429369/original/file-20211029-15-1qxqyip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429369/original/file-20211029-15-1qxqyip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429369/original/file-20211029-15-1qxqyip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429369/original/file-20211029-15-1qxqyip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429369/original/file-20211029-15-1qxqyip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Global fossil carbon dioxide emissions dropped by more than five per cent in 2020, but are expected to rebound to near-2019 levels this year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Global Carbon Project)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Data from 2016 to 2021 suggest that in the absence of additional policy intervention, global carbon dioxide emissions will continue increasing by an average of 0.2 billion tonnes (about half a percentage point) per year. </p>
<p>Third, we use the latest estimate of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3">remaining carbon budget</a>. This represents the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions that we can still emit, without exceeding a particular global temperature target. </p>
<p>According to the IPCC’s latest estimate, the remaining carbon budget is 500 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions from 2020 onward. We will have emitted close to 80 billion tonnes during 2020-21, leaving 420 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in the budget after 2021. The year that we emit the last of this remaining carbon budget is expected to also be the year that global temperatures reach 1.5 C.</p>
<p>The current emissions trend suggests that this moment is now only 10 years away.</p>
<h2>Decreasing global emissions can add time to the clock</h2>
<p>When we updated the Climate Clock in 2020, the decrease in global emissions caused by COVID-related lockdowns was enough to add almost a year to the clock. But now in 2021, emissions are climbing again and the time that was previously added has now been lost. This year’s annual update has removed nine months from the countdown, which now clocks at 10 years and five months until we reach 1.5 C. </p>
<p>A lot can happen in a decade, however. Every avoided emission of carbon dioxide is a unit of time that we can add to the clock. Decreases in other greenhouse gases that cause warming, such as methane or nitrous oxide, will also help to extend the 1.5 C timeline, since the effects of these other gases are reflected in the estimate of the remaining carbon budget. </p>
<p>If we can manage to drive global carbon dioxide emissions to net-zero within the next two decades, we have a good chance of not reaching 1.5 C at all. <a href="https://eciu.net/netzerotracker">Few countries, however, have adopted this level of ambition</a>: only a handful, including Uruguay, Finland, Iceland and Austria, have proposed net-zero emission pledges with a target year of 2040 or earlier. </p>
<p>Net-zero by 2040 is clearly a tall order, but it is not too late to make the attempt. If we learned one thing from the COVID-19 pandemic, it is that rapid and far-reaching action in response to an acute threat can be successful in limiting the damage. Global climate change is a less acute but equally potent global threat. If we can manage to respond in kind, we will similarly succeed in limiting the damage to both current and future generations.</p>
<p><em>The Climate Clock was co-created with musician and author <a href="https://www.davidusher.com">David Usher</a></em>.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>H. Damon Matthews receives funding from the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Peters receives funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C), 776810 (VERIFY), 820846 (PARIS REINFORCE), and 958927 (CoCO2).</span></em></p>The clock tracks global emissions and temperature data, and uses the most recent five-year emissions trend to estimate how much time is left until global warming reaches the 1.5 C threshold.H. Damon Matthews, Professor and Concordia University Research Chair in Climate Science and Sustainability, Concordia UniversityGlen Peters, Research Director, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1708662021-11-04T00:11:08Z2021-11-04T00:11:08ZGlobal emissions almost back to pre-pandemic levels after unprecedented drop in 2020, new analysis shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429728/original/file-20211102-52617-94e7bh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C11%2C3980%2C2223&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shuttestock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global carbon dioxide emissions have bounced back after COVID-19 restrictions and are likely to reach close to pre-pandemic levels this year, <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2021-386/">our analysis</a> released today has found.</p>
<p>The troubling finding comes as the COP26 climate talks continue in Glasgow in a last-ditch bid to keep dangerous global warming at bay. The analysis was undertaken by the <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget">Global Carbon Project</a>, a consortium of scientists from around the world who produce, collect and analyse global greenhouse gas information.</p>
<p>The fast recovery in CO₂ emissions, following last year’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-emissions-are-down-by-an-unprecedented-7-but-dont-start-celebrating-just-yet-151757">sharp drop</a>, should come as no surprise. The world’s strong economic rebound has created a surge in demand for energy, and the global energy system is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Most concerning is the long-term upward trends of CO₂ emissions from oil and gas, and this year’s growth in coal emissions, which together are far from trending towards net-zero by 2050. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people seated around U-shaped table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=217&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=217&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=217&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The troubling findings come as world leaders meet at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Evan Vucci/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The global emissions picture</h2>
<p>Global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels dropped by 5.4% in 2020, compared to the previous year. But they are set to increase by about 4.9% above 2020 levels this year, reaching 36.4 billion tonnes. This brings them almost back to 2019 levels.</p>
<p>We can expect another 2.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions this year from the net effect of everything we do to the land, including deforestation, degradation and re-vegetation. </p>
<p>This brings us to a total of 39.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ to be emitted by the end of this year.</p>
<p>The fast growth in emissions matches the corresponding large increase in energy demand as the global economy opens up, with the help of <a href="https://www.f4b-initiative.net/post/majority-of-17-2-trillion-covid-stimulus-packages-doing-more-harm-than-good-to-environment">US$17.2 trillion</a> in economic stimulus packages around the world.</p>
<p>CO₂ emissions from all fossil fuel types (coal, oil and natural gas) grew this year, with emissions from coal and natural gas set to grow more in 2021 than they fell in 2020. </p>
<p>Emissions from global coal use were declining before the pandemic hit in early 2020 but they surged back this year. Emissions from global gas use have returned to the rising trend seen before the pandemic. </p>
<p>CO₂ emissions from global oil use remain well below pre-pandemic levels but are expected to increase in coming years as road transport and aviation recover from COVID-related restrictions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global fossil CO₂ emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Nations leading the emissions charge</h2>
<p>Emissions from China have recovered faster than other countries. It’s among the few countries where emissions grew in 2020 (by 1.4%) followed by a projected growth of 4% this year.</p>
<p>Taking these two years together, CO₂ emissions from China in 2021 are projected to be 5.5% above 2019 levels, reaching 11.1 billion tonnes. China accounted for 31% of global emissions in 2020.</p>
<p>Coal emissions in China are estimated to grow by 2.4% this year. If realised, it would match what was thought to be China’s peak coal emissions in 2013.</p>
<p>India’s CO₂ emissions are projected to grow even faster than China’s this year at 12.6%, after a 7.3% fall last year. Emissions this year are set to be 4.4% above 2019 levels – reaching 2.7 billion tonnes. India accounted for 7% of global emissions in 2020. </p>
<p>Emissions from both the US and European Union are projected to rise 7.6% this year. It would lead to emissions that are, respectively, 3.7% and 4.2% below 2019 levels.</p>
<p>US and EU, respectively, accounted for 14% and 7% of global emissions in 2020. </p>
<p>Emissions in the rest of the world (including all international transport, particularly aviation) are projected to rise 2.9% this year, but remain 4.2% below 2019 levels. Together, these countries represent 59% of global emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regional fossil CO₂ emissions 2019-2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The remaining carbon budget</h2>
<p>The relatively large changes in annual emissions over the past two years have had no discernible effect in the speed at which CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>CO₂ concentrations, and associated global warming, are driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases – particularly CO₂ – since the beginning of the industrial era. This accumulation has accelerated in recent decades. </p>
<p>To stop further global warming, global CO₂ emissions must stop or reach net-zero – the latter meaning that any remaining CO₂ emissions would have to be compensated for by removing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Carbon budgets are a useful way of measuring how much CO₂ can be emitted for a given level of global warming. In our latest analysis, we updated the carbon budget outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf">IPCC</a>) in August this year.</p>
<p>From the beginning of 2022, the world can emit an additional 420 billion tonnes of CO₂ to limit global warming to 1.5°C, or 11 years of emissions at this year’s rate.</p>
<p>To limit global warming to 2°C, the world can emit an additional 1,270 billion tonnes of CO₂ – or 32 years of emissions at the current rate.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The remaining carbon budgets to limit warming to 1.5°C and 2°C. Updated from IPCC 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These budgets are the compass to net-zero emissions. Consistent with the pledge by <a href="https://eciu.net/netzerotracker">many countries</a> to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, CO₂ emissions need to decline by 1.4 billion tonnes each year, on average. </p>
<p>This is an amount comparable to the drop during 2020, of 1.9 billion tonnes. This fact highlights the extraordinary challenge ahead and the need to increase short- and long-term commitments to drive down global emissions.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170866/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Corinne Le Quéré receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C) and 776810 (VERIFY), from the UN Natural Environment Research Council under grant NE/P021417/1 (SONATA) and NE/V011103/1 (Frontiers), and from the UK Royal Society under grant RP\R1\191063 (Research Professorship. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Peters receives funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C), 776810 (VERIFY), 820846 (PARIS REINFORCE), and 958927 (CoCO2).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierre Friedlingstein receives funding from the European Commission Horizon 2020 (H2020) 4C project. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robbie Andrew receives funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C), 776810 (VERIFY), and 958927 (CoCO2).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Jackson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most concerning is the long-term upward trends of CO₂ emissions form burning fossil fuels, which are far from trending towards net-zero by 2050.Pep Canadell, Chief research scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; and Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROCorinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science, University of East AngliaGlen Peters, Research Director, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloPierre Friedlingstein, Chair, Mathematical Modelling of Climate, University of ExeterRobbie Andrew, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloRob Jackson, Professor, Department of Earth System Science, and Chair of the Global Carbon Project, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1698912021-10-25T00:08:56Z2021-10-25T00:08:56ZAustralia’s stumbling, last-minute dash for climate respectability doesn’t negate a decade of abject failure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427673/original/file-20211021-15-18maci0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C11%2C3763%2C2437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison is <a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-win-extra-cabinet-position-as-they-sign-up-to-net-zero-deal-170531">poised to announce</a> Australia will adopt a target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The pledge is long overdue – but the science tells us 2050 is about a decade too late to reach net-zero.</p>
<p>If we want to meet the goals of Paris climate agreement and limit global warming to 1.5°C this century, what actually matters is the action we take this decade. </p>
<p>No doubt the federal government will expect to be congratulated for finally succumbing to the extraordinary international and community pressure brought in the lead up to the COP26 meeting in Glasgow. </p>
<p>But after eight years without an effective policy to reduce emissions, it’s sadly too little, too late.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Politicians stand in parliament" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427675/original/file-20211021-17-cklv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427675/original/file-20211021-17-cklv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427675/original/file-20211021-17-cklv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427675/original/file-20211021-17-cklv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427675/original/file-20211021-17-cklv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427675/original/file-20211021-17-cklv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427675/original/file-20211021-17-cklv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Then-Prime Minster Tony Abbott and other senior members of the Coalition during a vote to repeal Australia’s carbon price in 2013. Australia has not had a substantial climate policy since.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Porritt/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Balancing the carbon budget</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://carbontracker.org/carbon-budgets-explained/">carbon budget approach</a> is a useful way to assess whether climate targets are adequate.</p>
<p>Carbon budgets show the amount of carbon dioxide (CO₂) that can be emitted for a given level of global warming. It’s based on the (approximately linear) relationship between the amount of CO₂ emitted from all human sources since the beginning of industrialisation and the increase in global average surface temperature. </p>
<p>Once the carbon budget has been “spent”, or emitted, emissions must be at net-zero to avoid exceeding the corresponding temperature target. In a report released in April, the Climate Council used <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/net-zero-emissions-plummet-decade/">this approach</a> to estimate Australia’s fair share of the global effort to meet the Paris targets. </p>
<p>To keep global temperatures below 1.5°C, and assuming humans emit CO₂ at the current rate of <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/3269/2020/">43 billion tonnes</a> a year, we have about 2.5 years of emissions still to spend. This pushes out to 5 years at a linear rate of emission reduction, achieving net-zero emissions by 2026. </p>
<p>Using the same logic, we also calculated when the world would exceed the Paris ambition of staying “well below 2°C” of warming, which we assume to be 1.8°C. Our remaining global carbon budget would be spent in about 9.5 years – so by about 2030. This pushes out to 19 years at a linear rate of emission reduction, so net-zero emissions would need to be achieved by about 2040. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-who-in-glasgow-5-countries-that-could-make-or-break-the-planets-future-under-climate-change-170090">Who's who in Glasgow: 5 countries that could make or break the planet's future under climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="road leads to coal-fired power plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427676/original/file-20211021-17-o6hf37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427676/original/file-20211021-17-o6hf37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427676/original/file-20211021-17-o6hf37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427676/original/file-20211021-17-o6hf37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427676/original/file-20211021-17-o6hf37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427676/original/file-20211021-17-o6hf37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427676/original/file-20211021-17-o6hf37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carbon budgets help assess how much CO₂ can be emitted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Australia’s fair share</h2>
<p>These calculations relate to the global effort. So what is Australia’s fair contribution? In 2014 the Climate Change Authority, a panel of government-appointed experts, <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/news/final-report-australias-future-emissions-reduction-targets">addressed this question</a>.</p>
<p>The Climate Change Authority recommended Australia’s emissions be reduced by between 45% and 65% on 2005 levels by 2030. This approach generously <a href="https://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/421702/Greenhouse-Gas-Emissions-Budgets-for-Victoria.pdf">allocated 0.97%</a> of the remaining global carbon budget to Australia even though our population is about 0.33% of the global total. </p>
<p>Applying the same method today to estimate Australia’s share of the remaining carbon budget, we calculate Australia needs to achieve net-zero emissions within 16 years – around 2038 – and reduce emissions by 50% to 75% by 2030. </p>
<p>So any way you cut it, net-zero emissions by 2050 is too late. </p>
<p>And we must not forget, Australia is a wealthy country, with one of the highest per capita emission rates. That means doing our “fair share” should entail emissions reductions greater than the global average. </p>
<p>An emissions target for Australia of 75% below 2005 levels by 2030, and reaching net-zero emissions by 2035, is consistent with global efforts to limit warming to 1.8°C. There’s no doubt achieving a 75% reduction in Australia’s emissions by 2030 would be challenging, but this target is both scientifically robust and ethically responsible.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/barnaby-joyce-has-refused-to-support-doubling-australias-2030-emissions-reduction-targets-but-we-could-get-there-so-cheaply-and-easily-169932">Barnaby Joyce has refused to support doubling Australia's 2030 emissions reduction targets – but we could get there so cheaply and easily</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="solar farm in arid landscape" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427679/original/file-20211021-26-1khrthr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427679/original/file-20211021-26-1khrthr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427679/original/file-20211021-26-1khrthr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427679/original/file-20211021-26-1khrthr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427679/original/file-20211021-26-1khrthr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427679/original/file-20211021-26-1khrthr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427679/original/file-20211021-26-1khrthr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 75% reduction in Australia’s emissions by 2030 would be challenging but ethically responsible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The world is watching</h2>
<p>COP26 in Glasgow will be a defining moment in the global response to climate change. In <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/cop26-presidents-closing-remarks-at-climate-ambition-summit-2020">the words</a> of COP President-Designate Alok Sharma:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The choices we make in the year ahead will determine whether we unleash a tidal wave of climate catastrophe on generations to come. But the power to hold back that wave rests entirely with us.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://eciu.net/netzerotracker">More than 100 countries</a> have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, and the G7, consisting of the world’s largest developed economies, has committed to at least halving its emissions this decade. That’s the good news. </p>
<p>The bad news is that for all the ambition, a <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/full-ndc-synthesis-report-some-progress-but-still-a-big-concern">United Nations report</a> released last month points to a 16% increase in emissions by 2030 compared to 2010. This would lead to about 2.7°C warming by 2100.</p>
<p>Adding to the bad news, Australia is the worst-performing of all developed countries when it comes to meaningful climate action. </p>
<p>We ranked <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/01/australia-ranks-last-for-climate-action-among-un-member-countries">dead last</a> in 2021 for action taken to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in the UN Sustainable Development Report. The <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/paris-glasgow-world-move/">latest report</a> from the Climate Council also ranks Australia last, compared to 30 other wealthy developed countries, for both climate policy/action, and fossil fuel dependence.</p>
<p>The list of poor rankings could go on, but there’s no doubt Australia is viewed as a global climate pariah.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="feet sticking out from fake pile of coal" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427680/original/file-20211021-26-qhdfb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427680/original/file-20211021-26-qhdfb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427680/original/file-20211021-26-qhdfb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427680/original/file-20211021-26-qhdfb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427680/original/file-20211021-26-qhdfb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427680/original/file-20211021-26-qhdfb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427680/original/file-20211021-26-qhdfb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia is the worst-performing of all developed countries when it comes to meaningful climate action. Pictured: Extinction Rebellion protest in Brisbane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Repairing the damage</h2>
<p>To turn this miserable position around, Australia should be going to Glasgow with a far stronger emissions-reduction target for 2030. This should be backed by a national plan to rapidly decarbonise our electricity and transport sectors, absorb more carbon in the landscape and support the transition of communities to new clean industries. </p>
<p>It goes without saying Australia must commit to ending public funding for coal, oil and gas – both their use and extraction. And we must say no to any new fossil fuel developments.</p>
<p>Australia must also make a new commitment to support climate action in <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/climate-finance/the-big-picture/introduction-to-climate-finance">developing countries</a> because if poorer nations don’t also make the low-carbon transition, the whole world suffers. As a first step, Australia should <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/09/21/us-double-climate-finance-gap-remains-100bn/">follow the United States</a> in doubling its current climate finance contribution, which would bring AUstralia’s contribution to least A$3 billion over 2021-2025. </p>
<p>A week before a major international meeting aimed at saving life on Earth, the Morrison government has apparently seen the light. </p>
<p>Granted, it’s a start. But the new targets are less than the bare minimum required. The government’s last-minute jump on the bandwagon is not quite the Damascene conversion it would have the public believe.</p>
<p>Will Australia’s stumbling, last-minute dash towards climate respectability be well-received in Glasgow? Don’t hold your breath.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Hughes has received past funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Councillor with the Climate Council of Australia, a Director of WWF-Australia, a member of the Climate Targets Panel, and a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will Steffen is a Councillor with the Climate Council of Australia.</span></em></p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison is poised to announce Australia will adopt a target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. But it’s too little, too late.Lesley Hughes, Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie UniversityWill Steffen, Emeritus Professor, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1674942021-09-08T15:32:25Z2021-09-08T15:32:25ZClimate change: ditch 90% of world’s coal and 60% of oil and gas to limit warming to 1.5°C – experts<p>Global mean surface temperatures <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-02/global-temperatures-already-1-2-c-above-pre-industrial-levels">reached 1.2°C</a> above the pre-industrial average in 2020, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned in its <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-the-most-sobering-report-card-yet-on-climate-change-and-earths-future-heres-what-you-need-to-know-165395">recent report</a> that Earth <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-says-earth-will-reach-temperature-rise-of-about-1-5-in-around-a-decade-but-limiting-any-global-warming-is-what-matters-most-165397">could hit 1.5°C</a> in as little as a decade. The 0.3°C separating these two temperatures make a world of difference. Scientists believe that stabilising our warming world’s temperature at 1.5°C could help avoid the most serious effects of climate change.</p>
<p>Fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas are the source of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2020/06/20/bp-review-new-highs-in-global-energy-consumption-and-carbon-emissions-in-2019/">just over 80%</a> of the world’s energy. Burning them accounts for <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossil-fuel-emissions-in-2018-increasing-at-fastest-rate-for-seven-years">89% of human-derived CO₂ emissions</a>. To avert catastrophic warming, the global community must rapidly reduce how much of these fuels it extracts and burns. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8">Our new paper</a>, published in Nature, revealed just how tight the world’s remaining carbon budget is likely to be.</p>
<p>In order to hold global warming at 1.5°C, we found that nearly 60% of global oil and fossil gas reserves will need to remain in the ground in 2050. Almost all of the world’s coal – 90% – will need to be spared from factory and power plant furnaces. Our analysis also showed that global oil and gas production must peak immediately and fall by 3% each year until mid-century.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A coal power plant with smokestack and piles of coal nearby." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420000/original/file-20210908-23-rm6s9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420000/original/file-20210908-23-rm6s9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420000/original/file-20210908-23-rm6s9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420000/original/file-20210908-23-rm6s9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420000/original/file-20210908-23-rm6s9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420000/original/file-20210908-23-rm6s9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420000/original/file-20210908-23-rm6s9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fossil fuels still provide most of the world’s energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/coal-power-plant-play-vital-role-355447979">Rudmer Zwerver/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even meeting these stringent limits may not be enough on its own to stabilise global warming at 1.5°C, however. </p>
<p>That’s because we based our estimates on a carbon budget compatible with just a 50% probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Our model simply could not be pushed to a greater chance of achieving the 1.5C target because it was already at its limit, given our projections of fossil fuel demand in the near future.</p>
<p>Our analysis also relies on the large-scale deployment of technologies capable of removing CO₂ from the atmosphere sometime in the future. By 2050, our scenario expects around four gigatonnes a year will be being captured by so-called negative emission technologies. There remains a lot of doubt about whether it is even possible to sufficiently scale these technologies up in time.</p>
<p>So, to aim for a better chance of achieving <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-aiming-for-1-5-c-target-could-slow-global-warming-within-next-two-decades-151710">the Paris Agreement’s goal</a> and to lower the risk of relying on as yet unproven technologies, we argue that our estimates of how much of the world’s fossil fuels cannot safely be extracted should be treated as cautious underestimates. The world may need to be even more ambitious.</p>
<h2>Fossil fuel rationing</h2>
<p>We estimated how much fossil fuel production in each region must fall and how fast based on a global energy system model. We allocated the remaining shares of fossil fuel production allowed within the budget based on the costs and carbon intensity of producing different oil and gas assets, and how cheap low and zero-carbon technologies are in different parts of the world.</p>
<p>Our analysis showed that total fossil fuel production is limited by a global carbon budget. Production growing in one region of the world will require a decrease in another to keep the global trajectory pointing downwards. A mechanism such as the <a href="https://fossilfueltreaty.org/registry">Global Fossil Fuel Registry</a> – a public database of all known reserves – could provide the necessary transparency for an international effort, with the cooperation of governments and fossil fuel producers.</p>
<p>The US and Russia sit on half of the world’s coal but must leave 97% of it in the ground. Australia, which recently pledged to keep producing and exporting coal <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/06/business/australia-warned-climate-coal-intl-hnk/index.html">beyond 2030</a>, would need to keep 95% of its reserves underground. Oil-producing states in the Middle East must not extract around two-thirds of their reserves, while most of Canada’s tar sand oil must not be burned, along with all of the fossil fuel buried beneath the Arctic. </p>
<p>Our analysis suggests that many countries will need to move out of fossil fuel production relatively quickly, which raises concerns about how the transition can be managed fairly. Countries such as Iraq and Angola have a high dependency on fossil fuels for government revenues. They will need support to diversify their economies in a managed way – including financial and technological assistance to develop new low-carbon industries – and to decarbonise domestically to reduce their own reliance on fossil fuels. </p>
<p>The necessary energy transformation highlighted in this research will require a range of policy levers, including measures that drive down fossil fuel consumption, such as banning petrol cars or promoting renewable electricity generation, and those targeting production itself, including restrictions on new fossil fuel extraction licenses.</p>
<p>Alliances between countries are also likely to be important to build political support for reducing fossil fuel production. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/denmark-costa-rica-seek-alliance-speed-up-end-oil-gas-2021-08-25/">Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance</a>, formed by Denmark and Costa Rica, has pressured other countries to halt investment in new oil and gas projects.</p>
<p>Phasing out global fossil fuel production at the rate suggested in our study is possible, but it will rely on some of the measures we’ve described expanding and gaining the support of large producing countries and companies – those which have benefited most from the fossil fuel era.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167494/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Welsby received funding from the European Climate Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Price received funding from the European Climate Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Pye received funding from the European Climate Foundation.</span></em></p>Our new study reveals how tight the world’s remaining carbon budget is.Daniel Welsby, PhD Candidate in Energy Systems, UCLJames Price, Senior Research Associate in Energy, UCLSteve Pye, Associate Professor in Energy Systems, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1661392021-08-17T12:13:37Z2021-08-17T12:13:37ZClimate change is relentless: Seemingly small shifts have big consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416632/original/file-20210817-21-7pqty5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C36%2C6048%2C3974&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">July 2021 was Earth's hottest month on record and was marked by disasters, including extreme storms, floods and wildfires.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/volunteers-and-residents-start-the-clean-up-process-at-news-photo/1329350141?adppopup=true">Thomas Lohnes via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change has been accumulating slowly but relentlessly for decades. The changes might sound small when you hear about them – <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/its-official-july-2021-was-earths-hottest-month-on-record">another tenth of a degree warmer</a>, another centimeter of sea level rise – but seemingly small changes can have big effects on the world around us, especially regionally.</p>
<p>The problem is that while effects are small at any time, they accumulate. Those effects have now accumulated to the point where their influence is contributing to damaging <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/">heat waves</a>, <a href="https://azwaternews.com/2021/08/16/arizona-heads-into-tier-1-colorado-river-shortage-for-2022/">drought</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">rainfall extremes</a> that can’t be ignored.</p>
<p>The most recent report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is more emphatic than ever: Climate change, caused by human activities like burning fossil fuels, is having damaging effects on the climate as we know it, and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">those effects are rapidly getting worse</a>.</p>
<h2>Earth’s energy imbalance</h2>
<p>An excellent example of how climate change accumulates is Earth’s energy imbalance. I am a climate scientist and have <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/changing-flow-of-energy-through-the-climate-system/F6DEF9F0033FCD43398BFA9A2BF64FAD">a new book on this</a> about to be published by Cambridge University Press.</p>
<p>The Sun bombards Earth with a constant stream of <a href="https://sos.noaa.gov/catalog/live-programs/energy-on-a-sphere/">about 173,600 terawatts</a> (that is 12 zeros) of energy in the form of solar radiation. About 30% of that energy is reflected back into space by clouds and reflective surfaces, like ice and snow, leaving 122,100 terawatts to drive all the weather and climate systems around us, including the water cycle. Almost all of that energy cycles back to space – except for about 460 TW. </p>
<p>That remaining 460 TW is the problem we’re facing. That excess energy, trapped by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is heating up the planet. That is the Earth’s energy imbalance, or in other words, global warming.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Globe illustration showing energy in and out and the remainder, trapped by greenhouse gases, going primarily into the oceans" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416158/original/file-20210815-27-m7o1du.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416158/original/file-20210815-27-m7o1du.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416158/original/file-20210815-27-m7o1du.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416158/original/file-20210815-27-m7o1du.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416158/original/file-20210815-27-m7o1du.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416158/original/file-20210815-27-m7o1du.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416158/original/file-20210815-27-m7o1du.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Outgoing radiation is decreasing, owing to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and leading to Earth’s energy imbalance of 460 terawatts. The percentage going into each domain is indicated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kevin Trenberth</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In comparison with the natural flow of energy through the climate system, 460 TW seems small – it’s only a fraction of 1 percent. Consequently, we cannot go outside and feel the extra energy. But the heat accumulates, and it is now having consequences. </p>
<p>To put that in perspective, the total amount of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=electricity_in_the_united_states#tab2">electricity</a> generated worldwide in 2018 was about 2.6 TW. If you look at all <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption">energy used around the world</a>, including for heat, industry and vehicles, it’s about 19.5 TW. Earth’s energy imbalance is huge in comparison.</p>
<p>Interfering with the natural flow of energy through the climate system is where humans make their mark. By burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests and releasing greenhouse gases in other ways, humans are sending gases like carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere that trap more of that incoming energy rather than letting it radiate back out.</p>
<p>Before the first industries began burning large amounts of fossil fuels in the 1800s, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was estimated at around 280 parts per million of volume. In 1958, when <a href="https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/history_legacy/charles_david_keeling_biography.html">Dave Keeling</a> began measuring atmospheric concentrations at <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/">Mauna Loa in Hawaii</a>, that level was 310 parts per million. Today, those values have climbed to about 415 parts per million, a 48% increase.</p>
<p>Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, and increased amounts cause heating. In this case, the human increment is not small.</p>
<h2>Where does the extra energy go?</h2>
<p>Measurements over time show that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">over 90% of this extra energy</a> is going into the oceans, where it causes the water to expand and sea level to rise.</p>
<p>The upper layer of the oceans started warming around the 1970s. By the early 1990s, heat was reaching 500 to 1,000 meters (1,640 to 3,280 feet) deep. By 2005, it was heating the ocean below 1,500 meters (nearly 5,000 feet).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416132/original/file-20210813-17-yvovr1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two charts, one showing the annual increase in temperature in the top 2000 meters of ocean. The other is colored stripes showing heat increasing at several levels." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416132/original/file-20210813-17-yvovr1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416132/original/file-20210813-17-yvovr1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=658&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416132/original/file-20210813-17-yvovr1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=658&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416132/original/file-20210813-17-yvovr1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=658&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416132/original/file-20210813-17-yvovr1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=827&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416132/original/file-20210813-17-yvovr1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=827&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416132/original/file-20210813-17-yvovr1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=827&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The average global temperature change at different ocean depths, in zetajoules, from 1958 to 2020. The top chart shows the upper 2,000 meters (6,561 feet) compared with the 1981-2010 average. The bottom shows the increase at different depths. Reds are warmer than average, blues are cooler.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-0447-x">Cheng et al, 2021</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/home.html">Global sea level</a>, measured by flights and satellites, was rising at a rate of about 3 millimeters per year from 1992 to 2012. Since then, it been increasing at about 4 millimeters a year. In 29 years, it has risen over 90 millimeters (3.5 inches). </p>
<p>If 3.5 inches doesn’t sound like much, talk to the coastal communities that exist a few feet above sea level. In some regions, these effects have led to chronic sunny day flooding during high tides, like <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/the-siege-of-miami">Miami</a>, <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2021/san-francisco-bay-area-sea-level-rise-2021/mission-creek">San Francisco</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2020/dec/08/venice-floods-as-forecasts-fail-to-predict-extent-of-high-tide">Venice, Italy</a>. Coastal storm surges are higher and much more destructive, especially from hurricanes. It’s an existential threat to some low-lying island nations and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-20-foot-sea-wall-wont-save-miami-how-living-structures-can-help-protect-the-coast-and-keep-the-paradise-vibe-165076">growing expense</a> for U.S. coastal cities.</p>
<p>Some of that extra energy, about 13 terawatts, goes into melting ice. <a href="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/">Arctic sea ice</a> in summer has decreased by over 40% since 1979. Some excess energy melts land ice, such as glaciers and permafrost on Greenland, Antarctica, which puts more water into the ocean and contributes to sea level rise.</p>
<p>Some energy penetrates into land, about 14 TW. But as long as land is wet, a lot of energy cycles into <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/special-topic/water-science-school/science/evapotranspiration-and-water-cycle?qt-science_center_objects=0#">evapotranspiration</a> – evaporation and transpiration in plants – which moistens the atmosphere and fuels weather systems. It is when there is a drought or during the dry season that effects accumulate on land, through drying and wilting of plants, raising temperatures and greatly increasing risk of heat waves and wildfire.</p>
<h2>Consequences of more heat</h2>
<p>Over oceans, the extra heat provides a tremendous resource of moisture for the atmosphere. That becomes latent heat in storms that supersizes hurricanes and rainstorms, leading to flooding, as people in many parts of the world have experienced in recent months.</p>
<p>Air can contain about <a href="https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953">4% more moisture</a> for every 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.55 Celsius) increase in temperature, and air above the oceans is some 5% to 15% moister than it was prior to 1970. Hence, about a 10% increase in heavy rain results as storms gather the excess moisture.</p>
<p>Again, this may not sound like much, but that increase enlivens the updrafts and the storms, and then the storm lasts longer, so suddenly there is a 30% increase in the rainfall, as has been documented in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.03.004">several cases of major flooding</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Satellite view of a hurricane with outlines of the islands in its path" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416157/original/file-20210814-23-gd38tv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416157/original/file-20210814-23-gd38tv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416157/original/file-20210814-23-gd38tv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416157/original/file-20210814-23-gd38tv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416157/original/file-20210814-23-gd38tv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416157/original/file-20210814-23-gd38tv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416157/original/file-20210814-23-gd38tv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cyclone Yasa heads for Fiji in December 2020. It was the fourth most-intense tropical cyclone on record in the South Pacific.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147672/cyclone-yasa-bearing-down-on-fiji?src=ve">NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Mediterranean climates, characterized by long, dry summers, such as in California, eastern Australia and around the Mediterranean, the wildfire risk grows, and fires can be readily triggered by natural sources, like dry lightning, or human causes.</p>
<p>Extreme events in weather have always occurred, but human influences are now pushing them outside their previous limits.</p>
<h2>The straw that breaks the camel’s back syndrome</h2>
<p>So, while all weather events are driven by natural influences, the impacts are greatly magnified by human-induced climate change. Hurricanes cross thresholds, levees break and floods run amok. Elsewhere, fires burn out of control, things break and people die.</p>
<p>I call it “The straw that breaks the camel’s back syndrome.” This is extreme nonlinearity, meaning the risks aren’t rising in a straight line – they’re rising much faster, and it confounds economists who have greatly underestimated the costs of human-induced climate change.</p>
<p>The result has been far too little action both in slowing and stopping the problems, and in planning for impacts and building resilience – despite years of warnings from scientists. The lack of adequate planning means we all suffer the consequences.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s science, health and technology editors pick their favorite stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-favorite">Weekly on Wednesdays</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166139/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Trenberth has received past grants from DOE, NASA and NOAA, and base funding from NSF</span></em></p>What might sound like small changes – temperatures another tenth of a degree warmer, sea level a few centimeters higher – have big consequences for the world around us.Kevin Trenberth, Distinguished Scholar, National Center for Atmospheric Research Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1625042021-07-06T19:04:46Z2021-07-06T19:04:46ZLawyers challenge New Zealand’s proposed emissions budgets as inconsistent with the 1.5°C goal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/409822/original/file-20210706-17-1d6rpte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C67%2C4118%2C2669&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lynn Grieveson - Newsroom via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand’s Climate Change Commission is facing its first legal hurdle, as a group of <a href="https://www.lawyersforclimateaction.nz/">300 climate-concerned lawyers</a> seek <a href="https://www.lawyersforclimateaction.nz/news-events/ccc-jr">judicial review</a> of the processes it used to calculate carbon budgets in its recently released <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/advice-to-government-topic/inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-aotearoa/">advice to government</a>.</p>
<p>Carbon budgets are a cornerstone of New Zealand’s climate change response under the <a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2019/0061/latest/LMS183736.html">Zero Carbon Act</a> and lie at the heart of the commission’s advice package. They specify the allowed emissions over successive five-year periods, initially up to 2035. The advice calls for net emissions of all greenhouse gases to fall 27% between 2019 and 2030.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.lawyersforclimateaction.nz/">Lawyers 4 Climate Action</a> group claims the commission has misinterpreted pathways in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>) reports in its calculations, making its advice inconsistent with the act, especially regarding the goal to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C.</p>
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<p>Pending the outcome of the legal challenge, the government is likely to adopt the recommended budgets, which would then flow into the settings of the <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/what-government-is-doing/key-initiatives/ets/">Emissions Trading Scheme</a> and all other aspects of climate policy.</p>
<p>The commission has engaged <a href="https://ccc-production-media.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/public/Inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-Aotearoa/Inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-Aotearoa.pdf#page=35">extensively</a> with the more than 15,000 submissions it received on its draft advice. So it was surprising that in its final advice, the budgets were increased, allowing higher emissions. </p>
<iframe title="Climate Change Commission advice on carbon budgets" aria-label="table" id="datawrapper-chart-Wr29L" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wr29L/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="477"></iframe>
<p>The commission’s immediate reason for the increase was the significant blow-out of <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory-1990-2019/">emissions in 2019</a>, up by three million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions. It judged this was not a one-off, and has allowed another two million tonnes in each year to 2030.</p>
<p>The commission also had to balance a long list of requirements, including that the budgets be ambitious, achievable and fair to both present and future generations, while supporting the global effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. The commissioners write:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A transition that is fair, inclusive and equitable for people is crucial so that it is acceptable to New Zealanders. Putting the values of manaakitanga, tikanga, whanaungatanga and kotahitanga at the forefront means having a deep ethic of care for people and the land. Having support and buy-in from New Zealanders is vital for meeting and sustaining emissions reduction targets. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But consider Ireland. Like New Zealand, Ireland has high agricultural emissions and a poor climate track record to date. Yet Ireland recently adopted a new <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/03/25/irelands-government-agrees-climate-bill-set-2050-net-zero-goal-law/">climate law</a> that requires net zero emissions of all greenhouse gases by 2050 and cuts of at least 51% between 2018 and 2030. This is unquestionably much stronger than New Zealand’s act. </p>
<h2>Many goals, but no easy options</h2>
<p>New Zealand is indeed in a tight spot. Decades of delay and spurious manoeuvring have seen emissions rise steadily, with few transition plans in place. </p>
<p>The main emitting sectors are often also key export industries, which should not face unfair competition, while consumption sectors (like private cars) lie broadly across the whole society. </p>
<p>Some key approaches from the past — international carbon trading, and extensive forest planting — have fallen out of favour. Following a collapse in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2019.1699773">credibility</a>, international carbon trading will need new rules to allow it to restart, while afforestation, though still playing a part, <a href="https://ccc-production-media.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/public/Inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-Aotearoa/Inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-Aotearoa.pdf#page=107">pushes</a> the transition out to future generations.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-children-are-taking-european-states-to-court-over-the-climate-crisis-and-changing-the-law-158546">How children are taking European states to court over the climate crisis – and changing the law</a>
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<p>The scope of the transition is challenging, and the commission argues its budgets are the best combination of ambitious and achievable.</p>
<h2>A path towards lower emissions</h2>
<p>A major part of the report describes in detail how the budgets could be met. For example, a relatively easy first step is to phase out <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/125151189/budgets-carbon-savings-equal-about-five-days-coal-use-at-huntly">coal burning</a> for electricity generation. </p>
<p>Coal and gas use in the food industry, mostly for the production of milk powder, has to rapidly decrease. So far, one plant, at Te Awamutu, has been converted from gas to biomass, saving <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/124233514/pressure-mounts-on-fonterra-to-bite-the-bullet-and-quit-coal">83,000 tonnes</a> of CO₂-equivalent emissions per year. But by 2030, the industry needs to cut more than 20 times as much. </p>
<p>Fossil fuel use in buildings, like <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119091081/government-starts-to-take-public-sector-off-coal-with-eight-schools-and-a-hospital">coal boilers</a> in schools, gets a lot of attention, but only adds up to a small part of the cuts needed. All other industries (including steel, aluminium, methanol, cement, mining, hydrogen, and ammonia) need to cut fossil fuel use substantially, preferably without all having to close. </p>
<p>The table below shows the proposed emissions reductions for different sectors, under the commission’s demonstration path.</p>
<iframe title="New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions in 2016 and 2019, and target emissions in 2030 " aria-label="table" id="datawrapper-chart-SphgE" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SphgE/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="1074"></iframe>
<p>The transport sector has finally seen government action, with the introduction of an extensive system of fuel efficiency <a href="https://www.nzta.govt.nz/vehicles/clean-car-programme/clean-car-standard/">standards</a> and fees and <a href="https://www.nzta.govt.nz/vehicles/clean-car-programme/clean-car-discount/">discounts</a> for newly imported vehicles. The commission argued for all of these and more, with a substantial shift away from private cars to active and public transport on a scale beyond New Zealand’s experience. </p>
<p>This transformation is sure to be contentious, from local battles over car parking and <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/125090290/what-is-it-about-new-cycleways-that-make-people-so-mad">cycleways</a> to the entire operation of the public transport system.</p>
<h2>New Zealand’s Paris commitments</h2>
<p>Another significant piece of advice the commission was asked to give was whether New Zealand’s Nationally Determined Contribution (<a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs">NDC</a>) is adequate. Climate change minister James Shaw had punted this question to the commission, which has passed it right back like in a game of hot potato. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-research-suggests-1-5c-climate-target-will-be-out-of-reach-without-greener-covid-19-recovery-plans-151527">New research suggests 1.5C climate target will be out of reach without greener COVID-19 recovery plans</a>
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<p>There are two difficulties. First, the commission has already identified the biggest domestic emission cuts; anything further must come from overseas. That will be expensive, and there are no rules yet on how these “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2020.1726564">internationally transferred mitigation outcomes</a>” will be conducted. This will be on the agenda at the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (<a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26</a>) in Glasgow later this year. </p>
<p>Second, the entire basis for the NDC stems from the requirements to balance equity, responsibility and need. For New Zealand, that points towards <a href="https://www.oxfam.org.nz/news-media/reports/afair2030targetforaotearoareport/">much higher ambition</a> than at present. </p>
<p>The commission did advise the NDC should involve an international mitigation effort of “much more than” 10% of current gross emissions, at a cost of many billions of dollars per decade. But it argued this required political, social and ethical considerations only the government could determine. </p>
<p>All of these matters will now fall under the scrutiny of the High Court.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162504/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Consider Ireland. Like New Zealand, it has high agricultural emissions and a poor climate track record so far, but it has adopted much stronger targets to cut emissions by 51% between 2018 and 2030.Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1493322021-07-05T15:29:03Z2021-07-05T15:29:03ZSuburban living the worst for carbon emissions – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/409724/original/file-20210705-126438-114syws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-typical-suburb-australia-641035918">Jandrie Lombard/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Work, education, entertainment, or simply better connectivity all draw people to cities. By the end of this century <a href="http://www.oecd.org/regional/regional-policy/The-Metropolitan-Century-Policy-Highlights%20.pdf">around 85%</a> of the world population are predicted to live in cities. </p>
<p>There are speculations that the COVID-19 pandemic will slow down this urbanisation trend, but I think it’s unlikely to stop it. Cities remain the primary location for job opportunities, education and cultural offers, and the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pandemic-surge-european-house-prices-raises-fears-new-bubble-2021-05-10/">continued rise</a> in housing prices in many European cities over the past year indicates that city life is still high in demand. </p>
<p>Some find this trend worrying, as – globally – urbanisation has worsened the climate crisis, and cities are often blamed for boosting energy consumption and carbon emissions. The World Bank estimates that <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/urbandevelopment/overview#1%20%22%22">80% of global GDP</a> is produced in urban areas. This results in higher income, consumption and associated levels of emissions. It is certain that a considerable share of the global carbon budget will be used up for <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-02409-z">building new infrastructure</a>, particularly in fast-growing cities. Further emissions take place when cities expand and land use changes – turning vegetation into city grounds.</p>
<p>On the other hand, cities cover only about <a href="https://wad.jrc.ec.europa.eu/urbanplanet">3%</a> of the global land surface while, at present, accounting for <a href="https://population.un.org/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2018-Highlights.pdf">58%</a> of the world’s population. This compact structure can render emission savings linked to higher <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter12.pdf">densities, connectivity, accessibility and land use</a>. Copenhagen and Amsterdam, for instance, are great examples of cities that make good use of these compact structures and offer a low emission lifestyle. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405659/original/file-20210610-23-1916tmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405659/original/file-20210610-23-1916tmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405659/original/file-20210610-23-1916tmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405659/original/file-20210610-23-1916tmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405659/original/file-20210610-23-1916tmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405659/original/file-20210610-23-1916tmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405659/original/file-20210610-23-1916tmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Copenhagen is one of the world’s most bike-friendly cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Max Adulyanukosol/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s better for the climate?</h2>
<p>Rural homes are surrounded by nature, but are often larger than urban houses or apartments and people who live in them require cars to get around. City homes are usually smaller and offer short distances, but also a world of shiny consumption goods, takeaway food and entertainment options – at least in non-COVID times. But what does this mean for individual carbon footprints: are they bigger in the city or in the countryside, if the income level is similar? </p>
<p>To answer this question, my colleague Pablo Munoz and I looked at the consumption patterns of more than <a href="https://www.statistik.gv.at/web_en/statistics/PeopleSociety/social_statistics/consumption_expenditures/household_budget_survey_2004_05/index.html">8,000 households</a> in Austria. We clustered them into urban, semi-urban and rural areas, estimated their carbon footprints, and found that people in urban areas, on average, had <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652620313731">the smallest carbon footprints</a>. People in semi-urban areas had the biggest carbon footprints, with those in rural areas in between.</p>
<p>The main difference we found is that the city dwellers we analysed had lower direct emissions from transport, heating and cooking. They did have more indirect emissions, that is, emissions released upstream in the production chain – by factories producing TVs for example. But in total, we found that the emissions of urban dwellers were still comparatively low. Even when controlling for other socioeconomic factors including income, we found that people in semi-urban areas in Austria emit around 8% more CO₂ than those in cities, and people in rural areas around 4% more.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Aerial view of detached houses and gardens." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405660/original/file-20210610-17-1qbulw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405660/original/file-20210610-17-1qbulw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405660/original/file-20210610-17-1qbulw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405660/original/file-20210610-17-1qbulw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405660/original/file-20210610-17-1qbulw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405660/original/file-20210610-17-1qbulw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405660/original/file-20210610-17-1qbulw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Suburbs are the worst living environment for carbon emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-suburbs-near-brisbane-australia-142363246">Make 2 Digital/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p>This evidence that a city lifestyle is the least carbon intense in Austria is replicated by other studies for high-income countries in Europe (such as the <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035039">UK</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800914001281">Finland</a>). But it doesn’t mean that it applies to everywhere: <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032115008321?via%3Dihub">research</a> shows that urbanisation in low-income countries usually increases emissions. </p>
<p>This isn’t to say we should discourage urbanisation in these countries. One of the principle reasons for this pattern is the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter12.pdf">income gap</a> between urban and rural areas in these countries: higher urban incomes lead to more consumption and resulting emissions. In high-income countries on the other hand, the urban-rural income gap is much smaller as consumption levels are high everywhere. So in countries such as Austria or the UK, living in cities tends to be better for the climate, as dense living can reduce transport and heating emissions.</p>
<h2>Curse or cure</h2>
<p>Does this mean that urbanisation is good or bad on the long run? There is no simple answer to this. The link between urbanisation and income, to take just one factor, is very complex. Globally, we know that urbanisation has been a driver for <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter12.pdf">higher emissions</a>. But results like ours give hope that city life is the sustainable option after all, at least once countries reach a certain income level and when doing it right. </p>
<p>Key to this is a strong commitment to climate action and implementing it fast. Governments around the globe should make best use of high densities, connectivity, accessibility and land in urban areas – and plan cities and their surroundings in a smart and climate friendly way. But efforts should not be limited to cities, given that semi-urban areas are the worst for emissions. This is especially true in light of increasing housing prices in cities and a post-COVID digitalised world, which make suburbs increasingly attractive for many of us.</p>
<p>Ways to decrease emissions are numerous: good public transport systems and bicycle routes, short distances to basic infrastructure, efficient buildings, and green heating and cooling systems are all proven ways of cutting carbon costs. In addition, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/pricing-carbon">carbon pricing</a> can create incentives for greener value chains and more sustainable consumption. When planning land use, rural-urban migration trends and other behavioural aspects should be taken into account. </p>
<p>The way urban and rural areas are designed will affect people’s choices – such as their preferred mode of transport – and associated emissions. </p>
<p>But ultimately we as individuals determine our own consumption patterns and our carbon footprint can be large or small, whether we live in the city or elsewhere.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149332/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This work was partially supported by the Austrian Climate Research Programme (ACRP) of the Austrian Climate and Energy
Fund through the project "Innovative climate policy instruments to reduce consumption-based emissions to complement territorial
emission reduction efforts".</span></em></p>New research indicates that people in urban areas, on average, have the smallest carbon footprints, and those living in the suburbs the highest.Sabrina Zwick, Research Associate, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1608562021-05-26T20:10:31Z2021-05-26T20:10:31ZClimate policy that relies on a shift to electric cars risks entrenching existing inequities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402749/original/file-20210526-21-7j4gzh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C48%2C2496%2C1613&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Scharfsinn</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the end of this month, the <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/">Climate Change Commission</a> will <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/news/process-for-release-of-our-final-advice-to-government/">deliver its final advice</a> to government, outlining how New Zealand can reach its climate targets. </p>
<p>New Zealand has committed to reaching net zero emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide) and reducing methane emissions from animals by 24-47% by 2050.</p>
<p>The commission’s <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/get-involved/our-advice-and-evidence/">draft advice</a> proposed electrifying the country’s car fleet as the best way of reducing transport emissions. </p>
<p>There are a number of reasons to question this course of action. One is equity — relying on electric cars to meet climate targets runs the risk of embedding existing health inequities.</p>
<p>Our first concern is that electric cars won’t reduce transport emissions <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2197211-electric-cars-wont-shrink-emissions-enough-we-must-cut-travel-too/">quickly enough</a> to meet our 2050 net zero carbon target. And without rapid cuts in emissions, climate change will continue largely unchecked, hitting disadvantaged populations hardest. </p>
<p>According to the commission, domestic transport emissions must be halved by 2035, and the pathway the commission favours relies on shifting 40% of light vehicles from fossil fuels to electricity. Others argue bigger cuts are needed, <a href="https://1point5.org.nz/">sooner</a>, given the slowness of emission reduction in other sectors. </p>
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<p>Even with the commission’s (relatively) modest goal for electrification, there are two problems. </p>
<p>First, it is doubtful the target can be achieved. Obstacles include the low starting point (electric cars currently make up about 2% of the <a href="https://www.transport.govt.nz//assets/Uploads/Report/AnnualFleetStatistics.pdf">vehicle fleet</a>), international competition for supplies and the high cost of EVs, slow turn-over of the old fleet (the average life span of cars in New Zealand is <a href="https://www.transport.govt.nz/statistics-and-insights/fleet-statistics/sheet/vehicle-age">about 14 years</a>), no obvious source of suitable second-hand vehicles, and the work required to build a comprehensive charging infrastructure. </p>
<p>Second, as the recent Ministry of Transport <a href="https://www.transport.govt.nz//assets/Uploads/Discussion/Transport-EmissionsHikinateKohuparaDiscussionDoc.pdf">green paper</a> demonstrates, even if the goal of 40% electric cars was met, this wouldn’t bend the emissions curve far enough to reach the 2050 target. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, the number of private vehicles must reduce, the distance travelled must shrink, and alternative forms of transport (including electric buses and electric bikes) must substitute for car trips. Making towns and cities more attractive for <a href="https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-get-your-bike-active-transport-makes-significant-impact-carbon-emissions">walking and cycling</a> is also necessary to take serious amounts of carbon out of transport.</p>
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<h2>Unchecked climate change amplifies disadvantage</h2>
<p>If emissions continue to rise, climate change unfolds unchecked. This is inherently unfair because climate change amplifies social disadvantage, including the conditions that lead to poorer health outcomes for Māori and Pacific populations. <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/health-and-equity-impacts-of-climate-change-in-aotearoa-new-zealand-and-health-gains-from-climate-action-special-article">Examples include</a> infectious diseases, mental health problems and chronic respiratory diseases. </p>
<p>Climate change will sharpen the threat of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-5/">food insecurity</a>, which currently affects Māori and Pacific peoples disproportionately as a result of <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)00349-4/fulltext">pressures on food production</a> worldwide. Living in more marginal areas in poorer-quality housing means Māori and Pacific communities are more severely affected by extreme storms and floods. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nzs-climate-change-commission-needs-to-account-for-the-huge-potential-health-benefits-of-reducing-emissions-156036">NZ's Climate Change Commission needs to account for the huge potential health benefits of reducing emissions</a>
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<p>People in lower socioeconomic groups also face greater exposure to climate risks, for example due to outdoor work, and are less able to afford measures such as air conditioning to <a href="https://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/plans-projects-policies-reports-bylaws/our-plans-strategies/topic-based-plans-strategies/environmental-plans-strategies/aucklands-climate-plan/response/Pages/equity-and-climate-change.aspx">adapt to the impacts of climate change</a>. </p>
<h2>Penalties in a car-dominated world</h2>
<p>The electric car might be an energy solution, but it is definitely not a transport solution. If New Zealand relies on this technology to reduce emissions, the price will be perpetuating an unfair and damaging transport system.</p>
<p>People without cars (10% of Māori households compared with about <a href="https://figure.nz/chart/EDXfeeu6NKTVBraw">5% of non-Māori</a>) find it more difficult to access vital goods and services, and are more likely to be <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/1177083X.2009.9522454">socially excluded</a>. </p>
<p>A high volume of fast motor traffic, encountered more commonly in low-income communities because they tend to be closer to busy roads, deters walking and cycling. It also reduces neighbourhood <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-011-9637-7">social interactions</a> and causes <a href="https://www.ehinz.ac.nz/indicators/air-quality/health-effects-of-air-pollution">health-damaging air and noise pollution</a>. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-cut-emissions-from-transport-ban-fossil-fuel-cars-electrify-transport-and-get-people-walking-and-cycling-154363">How to cut emissions from transport: ban fossil fuel cars, electrify transport and get people walking and cycling</a>
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<p>Electric engines will not prevent social severance, and will <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/23/electric-cars-transport-train-companies">not get rid of noise and air pollution</a>. Road crash injuries, known to occur <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23551475/">more commonly among disadvantaged groups</a>, will not be reduced by electric cars. </p>
<p>Indeed, there are concerns road trauma will be more common because of increased distances travelled, the greater weight of electric vehicles compared to petrol or diesel equivalents, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/06/new-law-combats-silent-menace-electric-cars">increased risk to pedestrians</a> due to the quiet and rapid acceleration of electric cars. </p>
<h2>Missing out on co-benefits</h2>
<p>A transport system that relies on cars discourages physical activity, one of the cheapest and <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/367/bmj.l6168/rr">most effective means of preventing diseases</a> such as type 2 diabetes, heart disease and many types of cancer. These are the commonest causes of death in New Zealand and affect Māori, Pacific and low-income New Zealanders <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/populations/maori-health/tatau-kahukura-maori-health-statistics/nga-mana-hauora-tutohu-health-status-indicators/cardiovascular-disease">particularly severely</a>. </p>
<p>A narrow focus on changing what is under the bonnet from petrol to electric means we miss the opportunity for win-win outcomes. </p>
<p>It is not clear yet how the shift to electric cars will be paid for, but it is likely the cost will not be evenly shared. Indeed a climate policy that relies on individual households paying for new technology will always run the risk of <a href="https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-017-0328-z">aggravating inequities</a>. </p>
<p>Car dependence is socially patterned, shaped by the geography of affordable housing, the demands of work and <a href="https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources/research/reports/666/666-Social-impact-assessment-of-mode-shift.pdf">access to alternative transport</a>. This means those with low incomes rely particularly heavily on cars, but will not have the means to transition to electric vehicles unless there are large subsidies or a source of cheap second-hand cars. </p>
<p>To sum up, a climate policy that relies heavily on electric cars will do little to improve poor health outcomes and ensure a just transition. Health, equity and sustainability require bigger changes, more transport choices and environments with less need to travel by car.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alistair Woodward receives funding from the Health Research Council and Waka Kotahi. He is affiliated with Bike Auckland. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsty Wild receives funding from Waka Kotahi, and is affiliated with Women in Urbanism Aotearoa, and All Aboard Aotearoa. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rhys Jones receives funding from The Health Research Council of New Zealand. </span></em></p>Electric cars are being touted as the best way to reduce emissions from transport. But a climate policy that relies on individuals paying for new technology runs the risk of aggravating inequities.Alistair Woodward, Professor, School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauKirsty Wild, Senior Research Fellow, Public Health, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauRhys Jones, Senior Lecturer in Māori Health, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1542642021-01-31T03:40:02Z2021-01-31T03:40:02ZClimate Change Commission calls on New Zealand government to take ‘immediate and decisive action’ to cut emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381489/original/file-20210131-20282-do2bk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C89%2C6000%2C3835&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lynn Grieveson via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/">Climate Change Commission</a> today released its long-anticipated <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/get-involved/our-advice-and-evidence/">advice to the government</a> on how to reshape the economy to meet the country’s domestic and international climate change obligations. </p>
<p>The document sets out three emissions budgets, covering 15 years to 2035 in five-yearly plans. It also provides advice on the direction policy should take to achieve the country’s 2050 <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/new-zealand/">net-zero goal</a>. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/state-of-our-atmosphere-and-climate/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory">net emissions rose by 57%</a> between 1990 and 2018, placing it among the <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/climate-commissions-advice-likely-to-shock">poorest performers in the OECD</a>. As one of New Zealand’s six climate change commissioners I have been part of the process of making a clear case to government that we must take “immediate and decisive action on climate change” across all sectors. </p>
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<p>The commission’s priorities include a rapid shift to electric transport, accelerated renewable energy generation, climate-friendly farming practices and more permanent forests, predominantly in native trees. It also says New Zealand must raise its pledge under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>, known as the Nationally Determined Contribution (<a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/why-climate-change-matters/global-response/paris-agreement/new-zealand%E2%80%99s-nationally">NDC</a>), because its current commitment is not compatible with the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. </p>
<h2>Ambitious but realistic carbon budgets</h2>
<p>The good news is the draft carbon budgets are achievable, with technologies that already exist. </p>
<p>The commission’s advice is built around 17 recommendations that cover many sectors of the economy. One of the key messages is that Aotearoa New Zealand cannot plant its way out of trouble but needs to make real cuts in emissions and eliminate the use of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Most of the solutions are well known. We need to reduce emissions from transport, from energy and industry, from agriculture and from waste. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-emergency-or-not-new-zealand-needs-to-start-doing-its-fair-share-of-climate-action-151083">Climate emergency or not, New Zealand needs to start doing its fair share of climate action</a>
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<p>Reducing transport emissions is crucial as the sector was responsible for <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-emissions">36.3% of New Zealand’s emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases</a> in 2018 and accounts for most of the growth in emissions over the past 30 years.</p>
<p>Recommendations for the transport sector include electrification of the vehicle fleet, improved public transport networks and better integration of active transport (walking and cycling). A rapid increase in electric cars would reduce emissions from private and commercial transport, while supporting low-carbon fuels like “green” hydrogen and biofuels would help the freight sector (including heavy trucks, shipping and aircraft).</p>
<p>Part of the transport story is urban planning — changing how people and goods move around. The commission recommends limiting urban sprawl, making walking and cycling safer and easier and shifting more freight from road to rail or shipping.</p>
<p>The commission also calls for rapid decarbonisation of electricity generation, and energy generally, to phase out the use of coal. Between now and 2035, it estimates New Zealand could cut transport emissions by 47% and those coming from heat and electricity generation by 45%.</p>
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<h2>Emissions from agriculture</h2>
<p>Methane accounts for 43.5% of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions, and more than 80% of total methane comes from cud-chewing farm animals. But the short-lived nature of methane in the atmosphere means we do not need to reduce methane emissions so fast. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/zero-carbon-amendment-act">Zero Carbon Act</a> calls for a 24-47% reduction in methane emissions by 2050, compared to net-zero for carbon dioxide.</p>
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<img alt="Cows ready to be milked" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381490/original/file-20210131-20580-1gpxdzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381490/original/file-20210131-20580-1gpxdzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381490/original/file-20210131-20580-1gpxdzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381490/original/file-20210131-20580-1gpxdzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381490/original/file-20210131-20580-1gpxdzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381490/original/file-20210131-20580-1gpxdzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381490/original/file-20210131-20580-1gpxdzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Emissions from farm animals account for more than 80% of New Zealand’s methane emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendon O'Hagan/Bloomberg via Getty Images</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The commission’s advice is that biogenic methane emissions can be reduced by 19% by 2035 while further improving productivity in the sector through better feed, fewer but more productive animals and continued research into emission-reducing technologies. </p>
<p>The commission calls for real cuts in emissions rather than offsets through tree planting, but argues forestry should continue to play an important role in the long-term storage of carbon, for example if timber is used in buildings or furniture and to provide bioenergy.</p>
<p>It recommends a shift towards more permanent native forests to improve long-term carbon storage, biodiversity and soil retention.</p>
<p>Waste is another sector with significant potential to cut emissions. Per head of population, New Zealanders throw away roughly twice what an average OECD citizen does. The commission recommends moving towards a circular economy, where resources are valued and reused. </p>
<p>In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, the main issue in the waste sector is methane release from decomposing solid waste. Capturing that gas at source could reduce methane emissions by 14% by 2035.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/arderns-government-and-climate-policy-despite-a-zero-carbon-law-is-new-zealand-merely-a-follower-rather-than-a-leader-146402">Ardern's government and climate policy: despite a zero-carbon law, is New Zealand merely a follower rather than a leader?</a>
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<h2>Cost of a fair transition</h2>
<p>The commission’s draft budgets recommend an overall reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions of 36% by 2035, starting with 2% by 2025 and 17% by 2030. It estimates the cost of achieving this is less than 1% of projected GDP, much lower than was initially thought. </p>
<p>The payoffs for public health, for our environment and biodiversity make this a good investment, let alone the huge avoided costs from unchecked climate change.</p>
<p>The commission’s recommendations will go through a <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/get-involved/consultation/">public consultation process</a> until 14 March, and the government has until the end of the year to decide which parts of the advice it takes on board.</p>
<p>An important aspect of the advice is inclusiveness and support for all sectors of society as we move to a low-emissions future. The commission takes a te ao Māori (Māori world view) approach, making it clear that Aotearoa must have an equitable and fair transition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154264/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Renwick receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, and from the Marsden Fund. He is a Commissioner at the Climate Change Commission. </span></em></p>The Climate Change Commission releases New Zealand’s first comprehensive plan to cut emissions, calling on the government to “pick up the pace”.James Renwick, Professor, Physical Geography (climate science), Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1515272021-01-18T21:12:07Z2021-01-18T21:12:07ZNew research suggests 1.5C climate target will be out of reach without greener COVID-19 recovery plans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379088/original/file-20210115-21-6vh4hj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C91%2C3536%2C2234&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Global fossil fuel emissions dropped by about seven per cent in 2020 compared with 2019. But a rebound is likely to occur when lockdowns ease up unless COVID-19 recovery packages focus on 'green recovery.'</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Michael Probst)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The amount of carbon dioxide that we can still emit while limiting global warming to a given target is called the “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3">remaining carbon budget</a>,” and it has become a powerful tool to inform climate policy goals and track progress towards net-zero emissions targets. </p>
<p>This carbon budget is like a fixed financial budget: there is a cap on total allowable expenses over time, and excess spending in the near term requires deceased spending in the future. Similarly, the remaining carbon budget is a fixed total quantity of future emissions that is small enough to limit global temperature increases before they exceed our climate targets.</p>
<p>Scientists’ estimates of the remaining carbon budget <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1368-z">vary widely</a>. Studies often use different approaches or even definitions of what the carbon budget represents. This can involve different treatment of how greenhouse gases other than CO2 contribute to climate change, or the incomplete representation of some processes, such as the role of aerosols in climate change. </p>
<p>The large range of estimates can be used either to write off ambitious climate targets or argue that the transition to a low-carbon economy can proceed gradually over several decades. Neither extreme reflects the actual uncertainty especially well.</p>
<p>We developed a <a href="http://nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00064-9">a new way</a> to generate a better estimate of the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5C limit of the Paris Agreement that integrates all major sources of uncertainty. Our results suggest that even if the growing list of countries committing to 2050 net-zero emissions targets reached their goals, we would still deplete the 1.5C remaining carbon budget more than a decade too soon.</p>
<p>This is a stark reminder of how quickly we are running out of time to achieve the most ambitious temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. </p>
<h2>How much budget is left?</h2>
<p>Our best estimate of the 1.5C remaining carbon budget is 440 billion tonnes of CO2 from 2020 onward. If human activities around the globe continue to produce CO2 at current rates, we will deplete the remaining carbon budget in a little more than 10 years. </p>
<p>If we slow our rate of emissions, the remaining budget will last longer. To avoid exceeding the remaining carbon budget, we need to stop emitting CO2 altogether. A budget of 440 billion tonnes from 2020 means that global CO2 emissions need to decrease to net-zero by about 2040.</p>
<p>However, even this would give us only a 50 per cent chance of not exceeding 1.5C. For a 67 per cent chance, total CO2 emissions must not exceed 230 billion tonnes. This is about five years of current emissions, or reaching net-zero emissions by 2030. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=192&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=192&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=192&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=241&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=241&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=241&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Distribution of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C (left panel) showing the median estimate of 440 Gt CO2 from 2020 onwards, with a 33rd-67th percentile range of 230 to 670 Gt CO2. This range includes all major geophysical uncertainties, but is also sensitive to other uncertainties that relate to human decisions and mitigation actions. In particular, human decisions regarding future emissions of other greenhouse gases and aerosols have the potential to shift the carbon budget distribution by 170 Gt CO2 in either direction (right panel).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthews, Tokarska et al (2020) Communications Earth and Environment</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Global decarbonization within 10 to 20 years is obviously a daunting challenge. But is it an impossible one? </p>
<p>The past year saw <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/3269/2020/">global CO2 emissions drop by seven per cent</a> relative to 2019. Continued decrease at this rate would cause global emissions to reach net-zero by about 2035, giving us better than even odds of limiting global warming to 1.5C. </p>
<p>This will not occur without a global effort to change the trajectory of future emissions. The 2020 emissions drop was a side-effect of efforts to control COVID-19. If economic recovery efforts were targeted to try to bring emissions down further <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc9697">this could keep the 1.5C target within reach</a>.</p>
<h2>Changing the course of future emissions</h2>
<p>At the peak of global lockdowns in April 2020, daily CO2 emissions decreased <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x">by almost 20 per cent</a> relative to the same period in 2019. These insights can inform how COVID-19 recovery investments could be used to drive emissions further downward. </p>
<p>The largest relative decreases in emissions came from reductions in road transport, such as commuting by car, and air travel. Although we are all suffering from the loss of in-person interactions, we have also learned a lot about how to convene meetings, presentations and collaborations online. While individual mobility will rebound as lockdowns ease, our crash course in remote working and learning means that we may not need to return to pre-COVID-19 travel levels. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graphic showing sharp decreases in carbon dioxide emissions from industry, surface transport and aviation between March and April 2020." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global carbon dioxide emissions dropped dramatically during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic when many borders closed and people stayed at home, largely due to decreased surface transportation and air travel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Le Quéré et al. Nature Climate Change, 2020/Global Carbon Project)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Emissions from industry and power generation did not decrease as much, in relative terms. This points to the need for systemic changes in technological infrastructure to unlock the potential for lower-carbon economic activity. </p>
<p>Similar technological advances are also needed to support low-carbon travel in circumstances where online platforms are not up to the task. The combination of sustained individual behavioural change, with a rapid expansion of low-carbon infrastructure, has the potential to have a substantial effect on the trajectory of future CO2 emissions. </p>
<h2>Staying within the remaining carbon budget</h2>
<p>An increasing number of countries, cities and companies are <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/newclimate-institute-report-analyzes-nuances-of-net-zero-targets/">committing to net-zero emissions targets</a>, where CO2 emissions are decreased to zero or to a level that is matched by the intentional removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. These targets are essential to any effort to stay within the remaining carbon budget. </p>
<p>Countries that have adopted or promised net-zero emissions targets include the European Union, United Kingdom, China, Canada and the United States under the new Biden administration. Currently, most of these targets are set for 2050 (or 2060 in the case of China). </p>
<p>According to our <a href="http://nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00064-9">estimate of the remaining carbon budget</a>, these commitments are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5C. They may, however, limit warming to the higher temperature goal of the Paris Agreement: well below 2C. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Stack and buildings for a coal power plant on a waterfront" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal power plants, such as this new Uniper Datteln 4 in Datteln, Germany, produce aerosols in addition to carbon dioxide, which have a cooling effect on climate. As their emissions decline, the remaining carbon budget decreases.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Martin Meissner)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The climate effects of other greenhouse gases, as well as of aerosols emitted from fossil fuel use, remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of the remaining carbon budget. Our effectiveness in mitigating these other emissions could expand or contract the size of the remaining carbon budget. </p>
<p>This year will be key in our efforts to decrease emissions. COVID-19 has opened a window of opportunity to meet ambitious climate targets that might otherwise have been out of reach. </p>
<p>Governments around the world are spending unprecedented amounts to support and reinvigorate national economies. We must actively pursue this opportunity for a <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/09/coronavirus-green-economic-recovery">green recovery</a> and <a href="http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/themes/green-recovery">avoid investing in infrastructure and industries that will lock in future CO2 emissions</a>. Yet the COVID-19 stimulus packages announced so far are “missing the opportunity,” according to the <a href="https://www.unep.org/events/publication-launch/launch-2020-adaptation-gap-report">UN Environment Program’s adaptation report released last week</a>.</p>
<p>There are no emergency lockdown measures that will slow the rate of climate warming. Instead we need targeted, substantial and sustained effort and investments to continue to decrease and eventually eliminate global CO2 emissions. This window is open now, and we must not miss the opportunity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151527/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>H. Damon Matthews receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kasia Tokarska receives funding from the EU Horizon 2020 CONSTRAIN project. She is affiliated with ETH Zurich and Climate Change AI. </span></em></p>Several countries have made pledges to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to zero by mid-century. But new research finds the remaining carbon budget will be depleted before we get there.H. Damon Matthews, Professor and Concordia University Research Chair in Climate Science and Sustainability, Concordia UniversityKasia Tokarska, Postdoctoral research fellow, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ZurichLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1518062020-12-10T20:18:24Z2020-12-10T20:18:24ZThe Paris Agreement at 5: Time’s running out. How to get the world back on track to meet its climate goals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374241/original/file-20201210-16-tgmvuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=86%2C68%2C5570%2C3699&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Paris Agreement on climate change, signed on Dec. 12, 2015, by almost 200 states, was hailed as the turning point to keep global warming in check. Progress, however, has been insufficient.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(UNclimate change/flickr)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>COVID-19 has dramatically changed how we live our lives, reducing air travel and automobile use. But <a href="https://aboutyourmag.info/2020/11/19/bloombergnef-study-rebound-next-year-wont-completely-offset-this-years-9-percent-decline-in-greenhouse-gas-emissions-about-your-online-magazine/">even these significant socio-economic changes are not the long-term changes needed to address climate change</a>. We are still set to overshoot Paris Agreement target to keep the global temperature rise this century to below 2C and to pursue a limit of 1.5C.</p>
<p>Bigger lifestyle, technology and land-use changes must be adopted if we are to meet the target. And while the technology exists, the imagination necessary to achieve success may be lacking.</p>
<p>Five years ago, the Paris Agreement united countries around the world, each <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs">making individual pledges, called Nationally Determined Contributions</a>, to lower carbon emissions. But these pledges haven’t been enough.</p>
<p>As a researcher studying climate change, energy and sustainability policy, solving the complex problem of climate change and greenhouse gas emissions keeps me up at night. </p>
<h2>Addressing climate change is urgent</h2>
<p>“The window of opportunity, the period when significant change can be made, for limiting climate change within tolerable boundaries is rapidly narrowing,” the authors of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/">IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land</a> wrote in 2019. </p>
<p>The world’s remaining carbon budget — the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that can be released and keep the world below its 2C threshold — could be depleted by 2028 unless thoughtful decarbonization of the economy occurs with post-COVID-19 recovery. </p>
<p>At this point, if the world does not begin to reduce the amount of carbon being released into our atmosphere, we will likely be unable to meet our Paris Agreement commitments. This means in five years we must be close to achieving net-zero carbon emissions. </p>
<p>It is clear urgent action is required — a combination of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/">new technology (clean and renewable), energy efficiency and societal change</a>. Stated policies only get us part way there, and <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020/achieving-net-zero-emissions-by-2050">more measures are required</a>, including valuing nature’s contribution to people, rainwater harvesting, ensuring conservation easements, afforestation and reforestation, and protecting soils and wetlands.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374228/original/file-20201210-13-1rr7hoc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374228/original/file-20201210-13-1rr7hoc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374228/original/file-20201210-13-1rr7hoc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374228/original/file-20201210-13-1rr7hoc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374228/original/file-20201210-13-1rr7hoc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374228/original/file-20201210-13-1rr7hoc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374228/original/file-20201210-13-1rr7hoc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New technologies will be necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and keep global temperature rise to 1.5C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2019.00010">(Beuttler C, Charles L and Wurzbacher J , 2019. The Role of Direct Air Capture in Mitigation of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Front. Clim. 1:10.)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The majority of climate change scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement rely on technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or prevent it from being emitted. </p>
<p>Planting trees, using biochar (a charcoal-like substance) to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2017.02051">store carbon in agricultural soils</a>, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/direct-co2-capture-machines-could-use-quarter-global-energy-in-2100">capturing carbon directly from the atmosphere</a>, burning organic materials such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12381">switchgrass or loblolly pine to produce energy</a> and <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/combining-bioenergy-with-ccs">capturing the carbon emissions</a>, and other negative emission technologies can help keep the carbon budget in check. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-15794-8">Carbon dioxide removal also occurs with agricultural best management practices</a> that increase soil organic carbon content, reduce soil erosion, salinization and compaction.</p>
<h2>All hands on deck — policy mixes are important</h2>
<p>There is no one single policy solution to climate change. Instead we need a system or suite of policy portfolios. Economists prefer a carbon tax for its economic efficiency and because it is technology neutral and allows producers and consumers to make choices. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-puts-health-at-risk-and-economists-have-the-right-prescription-118797">Climate change puts health at risk and economists have the right prescription</a>
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<p>But markets are not always efficient and oftentimes new technology and innovation requires a different impetus. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1806504115">Carbon dioxide pipelines</a>, infrastructure for electric or hydrogen vehicles and geothermal heating require government leadership. </p>
<p>Green financing, targeted tax credits (such as 45Q, <a href="https://cen.acs.org/environment/greenhouse-gases/45Q-tax-credit-s-luring/98/i8">a U.S. tax credit that encourages carbon dioxide capture</a>), greater efficiencies in infrastructure, buildings and homes, and nature-based solutions, such as constructed wetlands, rainwater harvesting and protecting grass and grazing lands are all important measures to be advanced through incentives or regulation.</p>
<p>A key remaining question is how governments can make the best climate decisions in the face of increasingly legally binding commitments. Rigid provincial, territorial and sectoral targets give rise to burden-sharing decisions as certain sectors are exempted from regulating carbon emissions or businesses move to less rigid jurisdictions resulting in carbon “leaking” from one jurisdiction to another. </p>
<p><a href="https://climatechoices.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CICC-climate-accountability-framework-FINAL.pdf">Climate accountability frameworks</a>, such as those legislated in Manitoba, British Columbia, New Zealand and the U.K., break long-term targets into interim milestones and hold governments to account. President-elect Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/11/07/biden-climate-change-monuments/">planned changes to U.S. climate policy, including rejoining the Paris Agreement</a>, will address some of these issues and bodes well for Canada’s advancing climate policy.</p>
<h2>Change is happening</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Fostering_Effective_Energy_Transition_2020_Edition.pdf">World Economic Forum has created an Energy Transition Index</a> to help policy-makers and businesses plot a course for a successful energy transition. Several countries such as Sweden, the U.K. and France have done well at reducing energy subsidies, achieving gains in energy intensity of GDP, and increasing the level of political commitment to pursuing aggressive energy transition and climate change targets. But Canada’s score has worsened between 2015 to 2020. </p>
<p>Governments are increasingly recognizing the need to embrace laws and policies with targets of net zero emissions by 2030 or 2050. Many countries, including Sweden, the U.K. and Hungary, <a href="https://eciu.net/netzerotracker">have declared ambitious net-zero emissions goals</a> — Suriname and Bhutan have already achieved these goals. Others are considering them. In all, 77 countries, 10 regions and more than 100 cities announced their commitment to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/77-countries-100-cities-commit-to-net-zero-carbon-emissions-by-2050-at-climate-summit/">the momentum continues to build</a>. </p>
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<p>Business is changing. Planning for the financial quarter or year end has become obsolete. As airlines realized during COVID-19, governments and funders are reticent to bail out an industry whose massive profits over the years have been paid to shareholders and used to buy back stocks, thereby making the companies less resilient. Business is now considering the long term.</p>
<p>A large number of global organizations have also declared carbon neutral targets, especially those with end-consumer-facing business models (including Amazon, Google, Apple, Cenovus Energy, TELUS and Maple Leaf Foods). Our youth recognize the intergenerational injustice of worsening future climate change impacts include storms, fires, droughts and floods. <a href="https://www.weforum.org/reports/fostering-effective-energy-transition-2020">Seventy per cent of young people consider the speed of energy transition to be either stagnant or too slow</a>, and they are willing to pay for it and accept the lifestyle changes required.</p>
<p>The Paris Agreement unified the world in setting a target of limiting global warming. The door is closing on achieving this target. The next five years are the years for ensuring through meaningful policy and action that this target is achieved!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151806/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Margot Hurlbert receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC), the Canada Research Chairs Programme, the Sylvia Fedoruk Canadian Centre for Nuclear innovation at the University of Saskatchewan, and the Candu Owners Group Inc. Margot is a Professor at the University of Regina, Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy and a Canada Research Chair in Climate Change, Energy and Sustainability Policy</span></em></p>The Paris Agreement set countries on a path to limit global warming. Five years on, some progress has been made, but not enough. Decarbonizing the economy will take leadership and imagination.Margot Hurlbert, Canada Research Chair, Climate Change, Energy and Sustainability, University of ReginaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1470472020-09-29T14:54:47Z2020-09-29T14:54:47ZIs the EU ‘cheating’ on its net-zero emissions plan? Here’s what the science says<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360552/original/file-20200929-14-1m1sedy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">TR STOK / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The European Commission recently announced it would aim to cut emissions by the bloc by as much as 55% against 1990 levels until the year 2030. The plans have come under fire because they include not only emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production, but also CO₂ removal by “carbon sinks” like forests or the soil. </p>
<p>Even though the planned <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=COM:2020:563:FIN&rid=1">legislation</a> does not specify what is meant by “removal”, the possible inclusion of natural carbon sinks has been termed “cheating” by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/14/eu-commission-accused-of-cheating-on-net-zero-emissions-accounting">Greenpeace</a> and “games” by <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/commission-under-fire-for-including-carbon-sinks-into-eu-climate-goals/">the WWF</a>. Are these accusations justified?</p>
<p>To understand this, we need to remember that to meet the Paris Agreement target to keep global warming “well below 2°C”, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2/">the world has less than 12 years</a> of <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/news/TemporaryReductionInCO2EmissionsDuringCOVID-19.html">current CO₂ emissions</a> until it exhausts its remaining budget. It is now becoming clear that the only way to stay within this budget is to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/24/carbon-storage-technologies-critical-for-meeting-climate-targets-iea">capture and store massive amounts of CO₂</a>.</p>
<p>What is usually overlooked though is that since the beginning of industrialisation, <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/19/data.htm">most of the CO₂ emitted (57%)</a> has been taken up by natural processes. In fact, while emissions from fossil fuels, cement production and deforestation have been growing exponentially (at <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientist-our-profession-is-letting-down-humanity-we-must-change-the-way-we-approach-the-climate-crisis-122479">1.65% per year since 1850</a>), my own research has found that natural sinks on land and in the ocean have been almost exactly <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2009GL040613">keeping up with the growth</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Sunlight shining through a forest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Much of the carbon we emit ends up stored in forests.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Skitterphoto / pexels</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Processes on land alone are responsible for taking up about a third of human CO₂ emissions. So for every kilo of carbon emitted by a car or a power plant, about 350 grams will end up in a tree trunk, a leaf, or decomposed into the soil. There is no consensus about exactly what is responsible for the growing strength of the land sink, but most likely it is a combination of more CO₂ in the atmosphere and nitrogen-containing chemicals from agriculture and industry ending up on soils and leaves, both of which make plants grow faster, as well as forests regrowing when agricultural lands are abandoned.</p>
<p>The inclusion of a constant EU-wide carbon sink calculated following the EU’s own rules effectively lowers the promised fossil-fuel reduction from 55% to somewhere between <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/commission-under-fire-for-including-carbon-sinks-into-eu-climate-goals/">53% and 50%</a>.</p>
<h2>A subtle form of double accounting</h2>
<p>But there is a much more fundamental problem with the Commission’s approach. It is a subtle form of double accounting that sets a precedent for more significant accounting tricks further down the line – or by other countries with larger land carbon sinks. </p>
<p>The problem is that when scientists calculated how much CO₂ we can emit and still keep within the safe limits of the Paris Agreement, nature’s free carbon sucking service was already included. The net-zero goal is strictly in addition to that. By the time we hit net zero, we actually need those natural sinks to continue functioning, taking up over <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/19/data.htm">22 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year</a> and continuing to reduce CO₂ levels in the atmosphere below where they ended up at the net-zero point. Because current levels of atmospheric CO₂ are <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0081648">not safe</a>. In other words, the needed net zero really is a “big minus”.</p>
<p>How much carbon is stored in EU countries through natural processes is essentially unknown. <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085725">Estimates</a> vary between 0.6 and 1.7 gigatonnes of CO₂ per year, with no consensus about how much of it is within EU boundaries. Contrary to the global land sink, which can be inferred from <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2001GB001445">combining CO₂ and oxygen measurements</a>, the European sink cannot be measured directly because these gases mix too quickly in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>But what happens if, at some point in future, the EU produces data that shows its carbon sink has increased? The amount of fossil fuels it would be legally-required to cut would be reduced – but the scientifically-determined global carbon budget to meet the Paris Agreement would remain unchanged. Given what we know about the global land carbon sink, it is likely the EU carbon sink will approximately double between 1990 and 2030.</p>
<p>This is clearly a bad start on the road to net zero as it sets a precedent for double accounting. A possible solution might be to only account for sinks that are genuinely additional, such as planting more trees or <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-47861-7">no-till farming to increase soil carbon</a>. However there is still no consensus about which processes govern the natural carbon sink, and it is likely to be partly human-induced. It is therefore next to impossible to reliably determine how much of a sink is truly additional. </p>
<p>Another solution could be to allow only direct CO₂ uptake by human activities to be counted as “removal”. So-called bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is one option, however it interferes with the biosphere’s capacity to soak up CO₂ as it requires <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0885-y">vast amounts of land</a> to grow biofuel crops (and competes with food production). The other option is to directly capture carbon from the air, but for now this has <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200824120035.htm">limited realistic potential</a>. </p>
<p>By far the most scientific, ethical and sensible approach would be to concentrate on emissions reductions and leave the terrestrial biosphere as intact as possible to carry on removing carbon. This free service, after all, is worth at least US$1.3 trillion per year (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10842-5">at a price of 100 US$/tonne</a>). Natural habitats should be restored for that purpose, but the resulting carbon sink should not enter territorial accounting schemes for two reasons: because it has already been counted, and because we have no way of reliably quantifying how much is down to human policy and how much is just the natural background rate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wolfgang Knorr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>‘Carbon sinks’ like forests and the soil have already been factored into the carbon budget – they should not be double-counted.Wolfgang Knorr, Senior Research Scientist, Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1335002020-09-13T12:11:10Z2020-09-13T12:11:10ZHow Canada could benefit from a carbon budget<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357594/original/file-20200911-16-1cx2m61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=55%2C73%2C1956%2C1220&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Greenhouse gas emissions from public electricity and heat production decreased to 70 Mt in 2018.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pixabay)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canadians have understandably been preoccupied by the COVID-19 emergency. Yet the climate emergency that prompted <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/27/climate-crisis-6-million-people-join-latest-wave-of-worldwide-protests">hundreds of thousands to march in the streets</a> in September 2019 has not subsided.</p>
<p>Just as Canadians have worked together to “bend the curve” on COVID-19, so too must we <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/greenhouse-gas-emissions/sources-sinks-executive-summary-2020.html">bend the curve on Canada’s growing greenhouse gas emissions</a>. The federal government has committed to do just that: reduce emissions to 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050.</p>
<p>Yet Canada <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-on-track-to-substantially-miss-2030-emissions-reduction-targets/">is not on track</a> to meet even the 2030 target, and to achieve net zero in three decades <a href="https://climatechoices.ca/net-zero-by-2050/">will be even more challenging</a>. We need a clear plan — and soon.</p>
<h2>Household budgets, carbon budgets</h2>
<p>Experience tells us that setting emissions-reduction milestones, sometimes called carbon budgets, can help turn an ambitious, distant target into actionable, near-term steps. </p>
<p>Carbon budgets work a lot like financial planning. A monthly household budget keeps a family on track to save for future goals, such as retirement or the kids’ post-secondary education. The budget is a mechanism of self-discipline to help the family achieve its longer-term objectives.</p>
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<img alt="A hand drops coins into a piggy bank." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357597/original/file-20200911-16-2bzcyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357597/original/file-20200911-16-2bzcyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357597/original/file-20200911-16-2bzcyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357597/original/file-20200911-16-2bzcyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357597/original/file-20200911-16-2bzcyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357597/original/file-20200911-16-2bzcyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357597/original/file-20200911-16-2bzcyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A carbon budget helps governments stay on track to meet their targets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pexels)</span></span>
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<p>Similarly, emissions-reduction milestones could keep Canada on a path to meet its long-term climate target. But instead of allocating dollars to the family bank account, carbon budgets specify the quantity of emissions the country can produce over a specific time period en route to the long-term goal.</p>
<p>Emissions-reduction milestones aren’t a silver bullet on their own. They require a broader <a href="https://climatechoices.ca/reports/marking-the-way/">climate accountability framework</a> that gives milestones teeth, typically through independent expert advice and transparent reporting. Together with these features, milestones could enhance our ability to meet long-term targets in a number of important ways.</p>
<h2>Why emissions milestones?</h2>
<p>First, milestones chart a clear path forward. They provide a predictable trajectory to 2050 for policymakers, industry and investors, clarifying the level of effort required to get there.</p>
<p>Second, setting a series of milestones can enhance accountability. Canada’s previous experience with emissions targets underscores how important this is. </p>
<p>Time and again, Canadian governments have promised to meet ambitious targets decades into the future. Yet, facing near-term challenges, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canada-isnt-doing-enough-to-fight-climate-change-federal-environment/">governments have succumbed to the temptation to defer tough decisions to their successors</a>. Years later, with failure looming, subsequent governments have announced new, even more-distant targets. </p>
<p>Interim targets help governments stick with a long-term program by requiring them to produce detailed plans to reach a series of milestones. Regular monitoring and reporting — ideally by independent experts — allows the public to evaluate progress and hold their elected representatives to account.</p>
<p>Third, milestones enable course correction. Near-term milestones make it obvious if emissions aren’t declining as intended, creating regular opportunities to revise plans and get back on course before it’s too late.</p>
<h2>Canada isn’t starting from scratch</h2>
<p>Emissions-reduction milestones are not a new concept in Canada. In 2018, Manitoba became the first province to adopt interim milestones. Its <a href="https://climatechoices.ca/publications/manitobas-climate-and-green-plan-implementation-act-2018/">Carbon Savings Account</a> sets five-year cumulative carbon budgets with support from an independent Expert Advisory Council. In 2019, B.C.’s <a href="https://climatechoices.ca/publications/climate-legislation-in-british-columbia/">climate change governance and accountability framework</a> introduced sector-specific emissions reduction targets. </p>
<p>Cap-and-trade systems in place in <a href="https://climatechange.novascotia.ca/nova-scotias-cap-trade-program">Nova Scotia</a> and <a href="http://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/changements/carbone/documents-spede/in-brief.pdf">Québec</a> could also transition to a milestones approach with additional accountability mechanisms.</p>
<p>Canada can also learn from international experience. The United Kingdom was the first country to adopt <a href="https://climatechoices.ca/publications/climate-legislation-in-the-united-kingdom/">legally binding targets and five-year carbon budgets</a> in 2008. Since then, many other countries have followed suit to implement their own emissions milestones and climate accountability frameworks.</p>
<h2>Tough choices lie ahead</h2>
<p>In 2019, the federal government committed to implementing <a href="https://pm.gc.ca/en/mandate-letters/minister-environment-and-climate-change-mandate-letter">“five-year milestones” for carbon emissions</a>. That will require answering some big questions.</p>
<p>Shared responsibility for climate policy among Canada’s federal, provincial and territorial governments presents unique challenges. Will milestones be set exclusively at the national level? Or will there be efforts to implement provincial, territorial or perhaps sectoral milestones as well?</p>
<p>Who will be responsible for implementing the policies needed to ensure that Canada-wide milestones are met? Will the federal government hold the primary role? If provinces are expected to contribute to meeting milestones, to what extent will there be incentives for participation or a federal backstop for weak ambition?</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-the-carbon-tax-means-for-you-114671">Here's what the carbon tax means for you</a>
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<p>Even within a single government, targets won’t implement themselves. What accountability mechanisms will be established to ensure co-ordination of diverse government departments toward a coherent goal?</p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly in light of past experience, what accountability mechanisms can be built in to keep Canada on track? Will governments be able to adjust milestones as they wish or miss them without consequence?</p>
<p>Emissions-reduction milestones have a lot to offer Canada as it seeks a pathway to net-zero — though much like a family’s long-term saving goals, adopting carbon budgets may be challenging at first. But as with family savings (and COVID-19), the sooner we get started, the better. </p>
<p>If the government’s proposed five-year milestones are to have meaningful impact, Canada will need to tackle these complex questions head on – and soon. </p>
<p><em>Anna Kanduth, a research associate with the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices, co-authored this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Harrison receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and from the federal government-funded Environmental and Economic Policy Research Network. She is a member of the Mitigation expert advisory panel of the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices.</span></em></p>Canada isn’t on track to meet its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions target. We need a clear plan — and soon.Kathryn Harrison, Professor of Political Science, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1322632020-02-24T02:15:55Z2020-02-24T02:15:55ZLabor’s climate policy is too little, too late. We must run faster to win the race<p>Opposition leader Anthony Albanese’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-pledges-labor-government-would-have-2050-carbon-neutral-target-132205">announcement on Friday</a> that a Labor government would adopt a target of net-zero emissions by 2050 was a big step in the right direction. But a bit of simple maths reveals the policy is too little, too late.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most robust way to assess whether a proposed climate action is strong enough to meet a temperature target is to apply the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19407799">“carbon budget” approach</a>. A carbon budget is the cumulative amount of carbon dioxide the world can emit to stay within a desired temperature target.</p>
<p>Once the budget is spent (in other words, the carbon dioxide is emitted), the world must have achieved net-zero emissions if the temperature target is to be met.</p>
<p>So let’s take a look at how Labor’s target stacks up against the remaining carbon budget.</p>
<h2>Blowing the budget</h2>
<p>The term “net-zero emissions” means any human emissions of carbon dioxide are cancelled out by the uptake of carbon by the Earth – such as by vegetation or soil – or that the emissions are prevented from entering the atmosphere, by using technology such as carbon capture and storage.</p>
<p>(The net-zero emissions concept is fraught with scientific complexities and the potential for perverse outcomes and unethical government policies – but that’s an article for another day.)</p>
<p>So let’s assume every country in the world adopted the net-zero-by-2050 target. This is a plausible assumption, as the UK, New Zealand, Canada, France, Germany and many others have already done so.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-more-carbon-dioxide-in-the-atmosphere-helps-plants-grow-but-its-no-excuse-to-downplay-climate-change-130603">Yes, more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere helps plants grow, but it’s no excuse to downplay climate change</a>
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<p>What then should the world’s remaining carbon budget be, starting from this year? </p>
<p>The globally agreed Paris target aims to stabilise the global average temperature rise at 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, or at least keep the rise to well below 2°C. </p>
<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">estimates that</a> from 2020, the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget is about 130 GtC (billion tonnes of carbon dioxide). This is based on a 66% probability that limiting further emissions to this level will keep warming below the 1.5°C threshold.</p>
<p>Current global emissions are <a href="https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/11/1783/2019/">about 11.5 GtC per year</a>. So at this rate, the budget would be blown in just 11 years. </p>
<h2>How does Labor’s policy stack up?</h2>
<p>This is where the “net-zero emissions by 2050” target fails. Even if the world met this target, and reduced emissions evenly over 30 years, cumulative global emissions would be about 170 GtC by 2050. That is well over the 130 GtC budget needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. </p>
<p>So how far would Labor’s target go towards limiting warming to 2°C? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/conservative-but-green-independent-mp-zali-steggall-could-break-the-governments-climate-policy-deadlock-131644">Conservative but green independent MP Zali Steggall could break the government’s climate policy deadlock</a>
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<p>The carbon budget for that target is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">about 335 GtC</a>. So a net-zero-by-2050 policy could, in principle, stabilise the climate at well below 2°C.</p>
<p>But a word of caution is needed here. The budgets I used above ignore two “jokers in the pack” that could slash the carbon budget and make the Paris targets much harder to achieve.</p>
<h2>Jokers in the pack</h2>
<p>The first joker is that the carbon budgets I used assume we will reduce emissions of other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, at about the same rate we reduce carbon dioxide.</p>
<p>But these potent non-CO₂ gases, which primarily come from the agriculture
sector, are generally more difficult to curb than carbon dioxide. Because of this, the IPCC recognises the carbon budget may have to be reduced if these gases are emitted at amounts higher than assumed.</p>
<p>Given the large uncertainties in how fast we can reduce emissions of these non-CO₂ gases, I’ve taken a mid-range estimate of their effect on the 1.5°C carbon budget and consequently lowered it by 50 Gt. (This value is based on a median non-CO₂ warming contribution as <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">estimated by the IPCC</a>.) This reduces the remaining carbon budget to only about 80 Gt. </p>
<p>Second, the carbon budgets do not include feedbacks in the climate system, such as forest dieback in the Amazon or melting permafrost. <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252">These processes are</a> both caused by climate change, at least in part, and amplify it by releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Emissions caused by feedbacks are expected to increase as global average temperature rises. Under a 1.5°C rise, feedback processes <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252">could emit about 70 Gt</a> of carbon dioxide. When the 1.5°C budget is adjusted for both non-CO2 greenhouse gases and feedbacks, this leaves just one year’s worth of global emissions in the bank.</p>
<p>The corresponding reductions for the 2°C warming limit reduce its carbon budget to 160 GtC. This is less than the cumulative emissions of 170 GtC if every country adopted a net-zero-by-2050 policy.</p>
<h2>What does effective climate action look like?</h2>
<p>These calculations are confronting enough. But for Australia there is, in addition, a huge elephant in the room – or rather, in the coal mine.</p>
<p>Our exported emissions – those created when our coal, gas and other fossil fuels are burned overseas – are <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/media/australia_carbon_footprint_report_july2019.pdf">about 2.5 times more</a> than our domestic emissions. Exported emissions are not counted on Australia’s ledger, but they all contribute to the escalating impacts of climate change – including the bushfires that devastated southeast Australia this summer.</p>
<p>So, what would an effective climate action plan look like? In my view, the central actions should be:</p>
<ul>
<li>cut domestic emissions by 50% by 2030</li>
<li>move the net-zero target date forward to 2045, or, preferably 2040</li>
<li>ban new fossil fuel developments of any kind, for either export or domestic use</li>
</ul>
<p>The striking students are right. We are in a climate emergency.</p>
<p>The net-zero-by-2050 policy is a step in the right direction but is not nearly enough. Our emission reduction actions must be ramped up even more – and fast – to give our children and grandchildren a fighting chance of a habitable planet.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/222-scientists-say-cascading-crises-are-the-biggest-threat-to-the-well-being-of-future-generations-131551">222 scientists say cascading crises are the biggest threat to the well-being of future generations</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will Steffen is a councillor at the Climate Council.</span></em></p>Simple maths reveals Labor’s policy, if replicated by all other nations, would not avert dangerous global warming.Will Steffen, Emeritus Professor, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1215122019-09-15T10:20:01Z2019-09-15T10:20:01Z2050 is too late – we must drastically cut emissions much sooner<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292457/original/file-20190913-8701-6p0t8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5760%2C3819&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ratcliffe-on-Soar, one of 7 UK coal-fired power plants still in service.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/-HpgebSN_OI">Diana Parkhouse/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the last things that Theresa May did before she left office as the UK prime minister in July 2019 was to commit the country to a net zero carbon target in 2050. Weaning the entire economy off carbon-based fuels on this sort of timescale sounds ambitious, but several advanced economies have set targets considerably sooner than this. </p>
<p>Sweden and New Zealand are aiming for 2045, Finland for 2035 and <a href="http://www.climateaction.org/news/norway_brings_forward_carbon_neutral_target_to_2030">Norway for 2030</a> – the most ambitious of any government. <a href="https://rebellion.earth/the-truth/demands/">Extinction Rebellion</a> has called for the UK to eliminate all carbon emissions by 2025. Our <a href="http://www.cusp.ac.uk/zero-carbon-sooner">recent working paper</a> explores the justification for these various targets.</p>
<p>The starting point is the global carbon budget calculated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is the total amount of carbon that can be emitted into the atmosphere from now until the end of this century. The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf">most recent estimate of a global budget</a> that would offer a 66% chance of limiting climate warming to within 1.5C above the pre-industrial average is 420 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.</p>
<p>Working from here to a carbon budget for each country is both a technical and an ethical question. Using the UK as a detailed example, a simple proportional allocation would give the UK a budget of approximately 2.9 billion tonnes. But given the UK’s historical responsibility for carbon in the atmosphere and the undeniable need for development in the poorest countries in the world, there is a very strong argument that the UK should adopt a fair carbon budget somewhat lower than this. So, for example, if the poorer countries in the world were to have an allowable carbon budget just one-third higher than the richer countries, this would lead to a <a href="http://www.cusp.ac.uk/zero-carbon-sooner">fair carbon budget</a> for the UK of around 2.5 billion tonnes.</p>
<p>The question of how long this budget might last has no simple answer, because it depends how fast carbon emissions are cut over time. Remaining within any given budget depends inherently on the emissions pathway the country follows. If we cut emissions faster, we can afford a later target. If we cut too slowly, the budget will be exhausted, and we would be faced with the task of installing uncertain and costly <a href="https://royalsociety.org/%7E/media/policy/projects/greenhouse-gas-removal/royal-society-greenhouse-gas-removal-report-2018.pdf">negative emissions technologies</a> to take carbon out of the atmosphere for the rest of the century.</p>
<p>The UK’s <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/794557/Consumption_emissions_April19.pdf">carbon footprint</a> in 2018 was about 590m tonnes, measured on a “consumption basis”, which includes the carbon in imports but excludes that of exports. This footprint has been falling slowly (at around 1.5% a year) since 2010. But if it continued to fall this slowly, the carbon budget would be exhausted by 2023, in just four years’ time (Scenario a).</p>
<p>Even if we assume a straight-line reduction to zero emissions in 2050 (Scenario b), we would still generate a carbon overdraft approximately three times our allowable budget. In fact, the latest date by which we could draw a straight line from our current level of emissions to zero and still remain within the budget would be 2025 (Scenario c).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288372/original/file-20190816-192210-o17mc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288372/original/file-20190816-192210-o17mc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288372/original/file-20190816-192210-o17mc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288372/original/file-20190816-192210-o17mc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288372/original/file-20190816-192210-o17mc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288372/original/file-20190816-192210-o17mc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288372/original/file-20190816-192210-o17mc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Four UK emissions pathways. (a) is based on our current rate of reduction, and (b) shows that linearly reducing emissions to net zero by 2050 means we’ll exhaust our carbon budget in four years. (c) shows that 2025 is the latest date we could linearly reduce our emissions to net zero, and (d) shows that for a 2050 target to stay within our budget, we’d need a 24% annual reduction in emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cusp.ac.uk/zero-carbon-sooner">Tim Jackson/CUSP</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A target later than 2025 is possible only if the UK reduces emissions faster than the straight line pathway in the early years. In order to extend the target date for zero carbon to 2050, emission cuts would need to be in the region of 24% every year for the next three decades (Scenario d).</p>
<p>What is notable about this pathway is that, within little more than a decade, carbon emissions must already have fallen to a very low level. With a 24% annual rate of reduction, UK emissions in 2030 would only be 22m tonnes – less than 5% of the current level of emissions. Only a small programme of negative emissions technologies would be needed to achieve net zero at this point.</p>
<p>Clearly the challenge is still colossal. A 24% reduction in emissions amounts to a cut of 140 million tonnes in the very first year alone. The UK has never achieved anything close to this since its carbon footprint was first measured in 1990. In 2009, when the economy was in recession, the carbon footprint fell by <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/794557/Consumption_emissions_April19.pdf">80m tonnes</a>, while its <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/794557/Consumption_emissions_April19.pdf">best post-crisis reduction</a> saw a fall of only 38m tonnes in 2016.</p>
<p>It is dangerously misleading for advanced nations to set target dates as far out as 2050. Doing so ignores the importance of staying within a fair carbon budget and gives a false impression that action can be delayed. In reality, the only way to ensure that any developed country remains within its fair budget is to aim for an early net zero target. For the UK, that means bringing forward the government’s target by at least two decades.</p>
<p>This might all seem daunting, but every year that progress is delayed, the challenge only gets bigger. Remaining within a fair carbon budget for the rest of this century requires deep and early decarbonisation. Anything else will risk a climate catastrophe.</p>
<hr>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290123/original/file-20190829-106524-1w6rzla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290123/original/file-20190829-106524-1w6rzla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290123/original/file-20190829-106524-1w6rzla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290123/original/file-20190829-106524-1w6rzla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290123/original/file-20190829-106524-1w6rzla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290123/original/file-20190829-106524-1w6rzla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290123/original/file-20190829-106524-1w6rzla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>This article is part of <a href="https://www.cjr.org/covering_climate_now/covering-climate-partnerships.php/">The Covering Climate Now</a> series</em></strong>
<br><em>This is a concerted effort among news organisations to put the climate crisis at the forefront of our coverage. This article is published under a Creative Commons license and can be reproduced for free – just hit the “Republish this article” button on the page to copy the full HTML coding. The Conversation also runs Imagine, a newsletter in which academics explore how the world can rise to the challenge of climate change. <a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=CoveringClimateNow">Sign up here</a></em>.</p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121512/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Jackson receives funding from ESRC. </span></em></p>At current rates of reduction, the UK’s fair carbon budget will be spent in just four years’ time.Tim Jackson, Professor of Sustainable Development and Director of the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity (CUSP), University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1223122019-09-03T20:04:10Z2019-09-03T20:04:10ZClimate explained: why your backyard lawn doesn’t help reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290593/original/file-20190902-175673-1201p1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C102%2C4230%2C2740&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While growing grass takes up carbon dioxide, it emits it again back into the atmosphere when it is mowed or eaten.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a></strong> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.</em> </p>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz</em></p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>I read somewhere that 1,000 square metres of grass absorbs the same amount of carbon dioxide that one person produces. I then think about my small 10ha property. Does that mean that I am covering 100 peoples’ CO₂ emissions every day? What about those large 1,000ha properties then? Do they absorb thousands of tonnes of carbon every year?</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>In New Zealand, your average carbon footprint will be around four tonnes of carbon, emitted per year (based on the carbon contained in <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/sites/default/files/media/Climate%20Change/snapshot-nzs-greenhouse-gas-inventory-1990-2017.pdf">16.9 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annual per-capita emissions</a>). A 1,000-square-metre area of grass will take up around one tonne of carbon per year. So if you didn’t fly much, lived in a well insulated home, cycled to work etc, you might bring your overall footprint down to around one tonne of carbon per year, the equivalent of what a backyard lawn may take up per year. So far so good.</p>
<p>The big problem (causing tremendous confusion even among scientists) begins right here. In the above, we talk about fluxes, not pools. Using your bank account as an analogy, fluxes are transfers, pools are balances. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-hitting-hard-across-new-zealand-official-report-finds-115661">Climate change is hitting hard across New Zealand, official report finds</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>With your own carbon emissions, regardless whether they are one or four tonnes per year, you pay into the atmosphere’s account every year. This means that there is more and more carbon in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>That carbon comes from fossil fuels – an entirely different “account”. Regardless of whether you have 1,000 or 100,000 square metres, this is what grass is doing in this analogy: it takes carbon from the atmosphere every year, but that carbon is going straight back to where it was taken from when you mow the lawn and the biomass is broken down and returned to the atmosphere. In other words, your carbon footprint is a flux that leads to a permanent change in a pool (the atmosphere). This is a bit like a weekly salary. You don’t have to pay it back. What your lawn is doing however, is making payments that are returned a few weeks or months later (when you mow the lawn, a cow eats the grass, or when natural turnover takes place). </p>
<p>The bottom line is that short-term fluxes (as large as they might be) don’t matter if they are reciprocated by an equivalent but opposite flux. If you want, let’s do the experiment. You pay $1,000 onto my account ever odd week, and I pay $1,000 onto yours every even week. None of us will care – as little as the atmosphere will worry about the carbon that your grass patch briefly locks away from it.</p>
<p>So your grass won’t lock away carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the long run. Neither will any grassland in New Zealand. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-plants-dont-simply-grow-faster-with-more-carbon-dioxide-in-air-115907">Climate explained: why plants don't simply grow faster with more carbon dioxide in air</a>
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<p>If you wait long enough, things can become a bit more complicated, namely if my payments back to you start to become a little less or a little more, causing dollars or carbon to accumulate on one account rather than the other. While this is the case in some ecosystems, such as a <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6448/76">growing forest</a>, New Zealand grassland is unlikely one of them. So your backyard isn’t helping, there is no way around reducing our greenhouse gas emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122312/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sebastian Leuzinger receives funding from the Royal Society. </span></em></p>All plants take up carbon dioxide when they grow, but when they are harvested or cut down, they release the greenhouse gas back into the atmosphere.Sebastian Leuzinger, Associate Professor, Auckland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1110462019-02-13T20:19:59Z2019-02-13T20:19:59ZResearchers, set an example: fly less<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256910/original/file-20190202-112314-1fk9lkf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C44%2C4256%2C2777&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/rFKBUwLg_WQ">Anete Lusina/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world is warming and ecosystems are dying. To avoid disastrous climatic change, <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">massive reductions</a> in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are required in all sectors, reaching <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/three-years-to-safeguard-our-climate-1.22201">net-zero globally no later than 2050</a>. This requires an <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-climate-statement-past-4-years-warmest-record">unprecedented and rapid</a> change in our ways of life.</p>
<p>In this, the world of research is challenged for two reasons. First, researchers are the source of the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/67/12/1026/4605229">increasing number of warnings</a> about the state of our climate and biodiversity, and their <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/11/climate-scientists-emit-30000-tonnes-c02">credibility would be damaged</a> by not setting an example. Second, because researchers have the training and tools to critically appraise their colleagues’ conclusions, they’re well placed to understand the seriousness and urgency of the situation, and act accordingly, by reducing their own CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.</p>
<h2>The carbon footprint of aviation</h2>
<p>Air traffic currently accounts for about <a href="https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Pages/env2016.aspx">3% of global emissions</a>, which is <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT">three times more</a> than the total emissions of a country like France. Traffic is growing by <a href="https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/global-market-forecast.html">4% per year</a> and is projected to double by 2030. This is in complete contradiction with the objectives of the Paris agreement, which will require halving current greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/three-years-to-safeguard-our-climate-1.22201">by around 2030</a>. With the growth projected, by 2050 the aviation sector alone could consume a <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/aviation-consume-quarter-carbon-budget">quarter of the carbon budget</a> for the 1.5°C target, i.e., the cumulative emissions from all sources that cannot be exceeded to limit global warming to this target.</p>
<p>Technical progress toward more efficient planes and better organised airports will have only <a href="https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Pages/env2016.aspx">marginal impact</a> at best. Real change can only be achieved by a massive transition toward biofuels or a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421508004217">dramatic reduction in demand</a>. The first solution would be to the detriment of food security and biodiversity, and providing better nutrition to a growing population while remaining within planetary boundaries already presents a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0594-0">huge challenge</a>. We are left with the second option: flying significantly less.</p>
<h2>Researchers on the move</h2>
<p>For better and for worse, researchers have been flying for a long time. The benefits include scientific and human exchanges, and the creation of larger networks with broader scope, giving more robust results. The cost is the international “meeting mania”, which consumes time, energy and money, and whose <a href="https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00304103/document">carbon footprint is enormous</a>.</p>
<p>“A researcher isolated is a researcher lost,” as the saying goes. Today, unless scientists are advanced in their careers, those who give up flying are marginalised. They transgress the rules of an environment that <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(18)30171-2/fulltext">values frequent exchanges and hyperactivity</a>. In doing so, they miss opportunities to make contacts for new collaborative projects, and run the risk of not being “in the loop”.</p>
<p>This observation is not specific to research: it concerns all competitive environments, which in our globalised world is a very large number of professions. To emit less CO<sub>2</sub> is to reduce one’s activities; to reduce one’s activities, when one is alone in doing so, is to exclude oneself from the competition. If the first to act loses, it’s no surprise that governmental climate commitments are <a href="http://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf">far from sufficient, and even unmet</a>.</p>
<p>By reducing its emissions voluntarily, the scientific community would be exemplary for two reasons. First, it would show that the science – the severe warnings of climatologists and ecologists – must be taken seriously. Second, it would prove that a professional sector can overcome the fatal “first to act loses” attitude and <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/columns/column-we-three-earth-scientists-are-flying-less-to-cut-the-carbon-20181210/">collectively change its behaviour</a>.</p>
<h2>Conferences</h2>
<p>The first project to change the situation could be addressing scientific conferences. Historically, they allowed important results to be shared quickly, at a time when communication with journals took place by post. Publishing an article was necessarily a slow process, and once published, its circulation was limited by journals existing only on paper. Today it is possible to publish in record time, and articles are instantly available online.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1088678513610293253"}"></div></p>
<p>Conferences have essentially become areas for collective brainstorming, where a mixture of the official programme and informal encounters produces fruitful exchanges. However, they can also be a source of significant carbon emissions.</p>
<p>There are three ways to limit the carbon footprint of conferences.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Go to fewer of them. Major world scientific meetings emit tens of thousands of tons of CO<sub>2</sub>. However, under the pretext of human contact but also of communication (even of “buzz”), they multiply without real justification. It is not rare to have three, four or even more conferences of global significance each year on the same theme, each with separate organisers.</p></li>
<li><p>Organise events that preserve social interaction while limiting travel, and therefore CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. This is the concept of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0736585311000773">multiple-site conferences</a>, where regional hub sites are linked together with videoconferencing. In this case the choice of central locations (relative to the expected audience), instead of pleasant but often remote places, would reduce the total distance travelled. Shorter distances also make trains increasingly practical, and in countries where trains operate on low-carbon electricity, they produce <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/trains-vs-planes-whats-the-real-cost-of-travel/a-45209552">much less CO₂</a> per passenger and kilometre than planes.</p></li>
<li><p>Virtualise encounters: “no-fly conferences” to which everyone can connect from home. <a href="https://ehc.english.ucsb.edu/?page_id=12687">Pilot experiments</a> have been encouraging, and technological developments should allow increasingly sophisticated formats including both official programs (easy to virtualise, including for questions and answers) and informal scheduled or improvised discussion sessions. The latter are less easy to organise, but they will need to be preserved because they contribute to the interest of these events.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Meetings</h2>
<p>While it might be hoped that teleconferences will gradually replace face-to-face meetings, the two are in fact growing in parallel. This is similar to what is happening with energy: production from renewable sources is rising rapidly, yet <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html">fossil-fuel consumption continues to grow</a>.</p>
<p>The importance of making and maintaining good relationships through direct human contact, and also of efficiency – we work better when we know each other – are good reasons to travel. But not to the point of ignoring the reality of our environmental situation.</p>
<p>The carbon budget beyond which we risk falling into an uncontrollable climate situation is now estimated at about <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">800 billion tons of CO₂</a>, a little more than 100 tons for each of the 7.5 billion inhabitants of the planet. Spread over 30 years, this gives an average of 3 tons per year per person. <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7541">Two transatlantic round-trips</a> in economy class are enough to consume this budget, which we drastically exceed already since the average European emits <a href="http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/ChancelPiketty2015.pdf">9 tons of CO₂ per year</a>.</p>
<p>The question is no longer just whether to travel less. It is to quantify the carbon footprint of travel, to set reduction targets (which should be transparent regardless of how ambitious they are), and to verify that these are met.</p>
<h2>Better now than later</h2>
<p>The net-zero world soon awaiting us requires <em>carbon abstinence</em>. Air travel is just one aspect; <a href="https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/elsevier/assessing-ict-global-emissions-footprint-trends-to-2040-UKSwWW4vGb">information and communication technology</a> (ICT) is another. This should be organised and adopted without delay, at the risk of being forced upon us later on by worsening conditions. Meeting physically with colleagues who live thousands of miles away is not an inalienable right. Ignoring the science of greenhouse gases and the resulting threat posed to humanity would be irresponsible.</p>
<p>To continue to emit CO<sub>2</sub> that future generations will then have to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-02184-x?fbclid=IwAR2b5Ei1_wkzNCtFmjUNJB371na9U2bYelJR10JJaBmxbkhLqc9Fu87CEME">capture from the atmosphere</a> to guarantee their own survival would be inexcusable. Many research institutions already have policies in place to encourage their members to adopt good practices for occupational risk prevention, data protection and ethical decision-making. Now is the time for institutions to also embrace policy for <a href="https://tyndall.ac.uk/travel-strategy">flight reduction</a> or <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6424/240.2?rss=1">carbon abstinence</a>. Our collective future depends on it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111046/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Whether to attending a conferences or giving in to a meeting, the global research community is keen on air travel. That’s a habit that needs to change.Xavier Anglaret, Directeur de l’équipe « Maladies infectieuses en pays à ressources limitées » du Centre Inserm 1219, Université de BordeauxChris Wymant, Senior Researcher in Statistical Genetics and Pathogen Dynamics, University of OxfordKévin Jean, Maître de conférences en épidémiologie, Conservatoire national des arts et métiers (CNAM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.