tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/census-2016-29877/articlesCensus 2016 – The Conversation2021-08-10T01:57:34Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1658062021-08-10T01:57:34Z2021-08-10T01:57:34ZWhy it’s unlikely there will be another #Censusfail tonight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415336/original/file-20210810-23-1nsuofz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C5472%2C3645&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kaitlyn Baker/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the appointed hour for tonight’s census approaches, the question on many lips is: will it go smoothly, or will it be a repeat of the infamous 2016 #Censusfail? </p>
<p>Australians may remember the chaotic 40-hour shutdown suffered by the census website from 7:30pm on census night back in 2016. Fingers of blame were pointed in all directions, and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suffered a heavy blow to its reputation. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/Home/Assuring+Census+Data+Quality">forensic audit</a> later revealed multiple causal factors, not least of which was a series of malicious <a href="https://www.csoonline.com/article/3222095/ddos-explained-how-denial-of-service-attacks-are-evolving.html">“denial of service” (DDoS) attacks</a>. This type of attack aims to paralyse a website by bombarding it with too many requests at once.</p>
<h2>What happened in 2016?</h2>
<p>In essence, the online platform used in 2016 had insufficient built-in safeguards against DDoS attacks. This led to a hardware failure and the ultimate collapse of the system. </p>
<p>It is also possible the large number of legitimate access requests from people simply trying to complete their census contributed to the failure. The ABS later claimed the technology infrastructure was <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bureau-of-statistics-looks-to-avoid-the-mistakes-of-censusfail-20190101-p50p33.html">inadequate</a> for the job at hand, despite assurances from its provider, IBM.</p>
<p>After the DDoS attacks, system monitors reported what appeared to be an unusually large amount of outbound traffic, which suggested confidential data were being exfiltrated. The ABS shut everything down to prevent further data loss. </p>
<p>It was later found that the unusual outbound traffic reading had been false. There was no loss of confidential data. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drowning-by-averages-did-the-abs-miscalculate-the-census-load-63752">Drowning by averages: did the ABS miscalculate the Census load?</a>
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<h2>How will 2021 be different?</h2>
<p>The 2021 census is being coordinated by <a href="https://www.pwc.com.au/">PricewaterhouseCoopers</a>, one of the largest professional services networks in the world. </p>
<p>Moreover, the online platform will run on <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/australian-2021-digital-census-to-be-built-on-aws/">Amazon Web Services</a>, by far the largest cloud computing services provider in the world. It has certified capability at handling “protected workloads”, which means the Australian Signals Directorate has signed off on its trustworthiness to host citizens’ data.</p>
<p>With these choices, the ABS has minimised the risk of a 2016 repeat. </p>
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<img alt="Hands using a laptop and smart phone at a desk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415352/original/file-20210810-13-58onjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415352/original/file-20210810-13-58onjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415352/original/file-20210810-13-58onjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415352/original/file-20210810-13-58onjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415352/original/file-20210810-13-58onjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415352/original/file-20210810-13-58onjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415352/original/file-20210810-13-58onjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Protecting citizens’ data is paramount.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Christina/Wocintechchat/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Also providing advice on creating an all-round secure digital census platform is the <a href="https://www.cyber.gov.au/">Australian Cyber Security Centre</a> and the <a href="https://www.dta.gov.au/">Digital Transformation Agency</a>.</p>
<p>To pay for all of this, the ABS was allocated A$38.3 million over three years in the 2019-20 federal budget.</p>
<h2>Census website opened early</h2>
<p>By opening the census website on July 28, there will be less of a traffic spike on census night itself. </p>
<p>From July 28, Australians began receiving letters with their login ID and password. They could log in immediately to complete their censuses. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/census-2021-is-almost-here-whats-changed-since-censusfail-whats-at-stake-in-this-pandemic-survey-164784">Census 2021 is almost here — what's changed since #censusfail? What's at stake in this pandemic survey?</a>
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<p>There have been informal reports that people have had difficulty logging on because it appeared from the letter that there were spaces in the sequence of nine characters that make up the password. The password was grouped into three lots of three characters on the letter. </p>
<p>But if the spaces are entered, the login fails. There should be no spaces in the password entered into the census website.</p>
<h2>What makes a website resilient?</h2>
<p>Resilient websites are those that are better able to withstand attacks in the first place, and — if a failure caused by excessive load or a cyber attack does happen — can recover with a minimum of downtime.</p>
<p>It is no great mystery how to do this. It is a matter of good engineering and ample resources. Around the world, there is a growing number of businesses whose livelihood depends on having a resilient website. Providers of web services like Amazon’s AWS and Microsoft’s Azure must guarantee these high levels of service, to win and keep these clients’ business. </p>
<p>This is the level of resilience the census platform is using.</p>
<h2>How will we know if 2021 is a success?</h2>
<p>2016 was Australia’s first digital census. It seems likely the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bureau-of-statistics-looks-to-avoid-the-mistakes-of-censusfail-20190101-p50p33.html">lessons</a> from that bumpy first outing have been learned. </p>
<p>Moreover, top-shelf service providers have been engaged, and sufficient funding secured. With the arrangements currently in place, we can expect tonight’s census to be a <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/australian-bureau-of-statistics-on-track-to-avoid-censusfail-2-0-come-august-10/">success</a>. </p>
<p>But there can be no absolute guarantees. We live in a world in which cyber-attacks from unfriendly <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-11/australians-turning-point-on-cyber-security-cyberattacks-crime/13018884">nation states</a>, organised criminals, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hacktivism">hackivists</a> and garden-variety cyber-crooks are a daily occurrence. </p>
<p>The good news is that Australia’s ability to fend off this malicious disruption is improving every day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165806/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Tuffley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Switching web service providers and providing almost $40 million from the federal budget means the census 2021 website should be safe from crashing at the crucial time this evening.David Tuffley, Senior Lecturer in Applied Ethics & CyberSecurity, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1647842021-07-27T19:55:10Z2021-07-27T19:55:10ZCensus 2021 is almost here — what’s changed since #censusfail? What’s at stake in this pandemic survey?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413072/original/file-20210726-23-1ftg1zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crosling/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australian households will begin receiving instructions on how to fill out the 2021 census from early August. </p>
<p>The Census of Population and Housing is held every five years in Australia — and counts every person and household in Australia. But this is the <a href="https://www.nla.gov.au/research-guides/statistics/statistics-population-and-census-reports">first time</a> the count will be held during a global pandemic amid <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-22/covid-19-lockdown-acts-of-kindness/100307768">lockdowns</a> and rising health and economic impacts of COVID-19.</p>
<p>Census data are crucial to what we know <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/communityprofile/036?opendocument">about Australia</a>: who lives here, and how and where people live. Data from census informs vital services and infrastructure including, education, healthcare, transport, and welfare.</p>
<h2>Census 2021</h2>
<p>August 10 is the official census date, but things will be done a little differently in 2021. This year, Australia’s <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/household-and-family-projections-australia/latest-release#what-if-">10 million households</a> will receive census login information or hard copy forms in the mail from next week.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics is encouraging people to complete the census as soon as they receive their instructions, if they know where they’ll be on August 10. In previous years you had to fill in your form on census night.</p>
<h2>The 2016 ‘fail’</h2>
<p>Australia’s last census was associated with great controversy stemming from the “<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyReleaseDate/EC8D47BE72A97E7ECA257E9A00131583?OpenDocument">digital-first</a>” strategy (where the majority of Australians would do the census online for the first time) and bureau plans to <a href="https://theconversation.com/census-2016-should-you-be-concerned-about-your-privacy-63206">keep names and addresses</a> for up to four years, to boost anonymous links with other data.</p>
<p>This was accompanied by federal politicians saying they would <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-09/scott-ludlam-wont-put-name-on-census-form/7703380">refuse</a> to put their names on the census, citing privacy concerns, and a campaign <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/drawing-a-dck-on-the-census-doesnt-make-you-cool-it-makes-you-a-dck/news-story/5bf4b008437a07ab152144e1e7c69386">to deface</a> census forms.</p>
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<img alt="A screen shot of a blocked census form in 2016." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413087/original/file-20210726-17-e2nf3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413087/original/file-20210726-17-e2nf3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413087/original/file-20210726-17-e2nf3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413087/original/file-20210726-17-e2nf3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413087/original/file-20210726-17-e2nf3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413087/original/file-20210726-17-e2nf3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413087/original/file-20210726-17-e2nf3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The #censusfail in 2016 was a huge embarrassment for the federal government.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Then came #censusfail. </p>
<p>Distributed denial of service attacks on census night saw the online questionnaire platform shut down and remain offline for nearly <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/publications/tabledpapers/a41f4f25-a08e-49a7-9b5f-d2c8af94f5c5/upload_pdf/Review%20of%20the%202016%20eCensus%20-%20final%20report.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22publications/tabledpapers/a41f4f25-a08e-49a7-9b5f-d2c8af94f5c5%22">two days</a>. </p>
<p>While data quality <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/home/Independent+Assurance+Panel/%24File/CIAP+Report+on+the+quality+of+2016+Census+data.pdf">was not</a> compromised, it was nevertheless a huge embarrassment for the bureau and the Turnbull government.</p>
<h2>What’s changed in terms of set-up?</h2>
<p>Lessons have since been <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/publications/tabledpapers/a41f4f25-a08e-49a7-9b5f-d2c8af94f5c5/upload_pdf/Review%20of%20the%202016%20eCensus%20-%20final%20report.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22publications/tabledpapers/a41f4f25-a08e-49a7-9b5f-d2c8af94f5c5%22">learned</a> and these are seen in preparations for Census 2021.</p>
<p>The new window to complete the census, rather than a one-night burst, will help ease online bottlenecks and external threats. It will also reduce pressure on the many Australians in lockdown, juggling paid work and home schooling.</p>
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<img alt="Commuters crowd into Town Hall station in Sydney." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413093/original/file-20210726-15-4y5mz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413093/original/file-20210726-15-4y5mz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413093/original/file-20210726-15-4y5mz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413093/original/file-20210726-15-4y5mz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413093/original/file-20210726-15-4y5mz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413093/original/file-20210726-15-4y5mz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413093/original/file-20210726-15-4y5mz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The 2021 Census will collect information about more than 25 million Australians.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peter Rae/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Neighbourhoods won’t be graced by an army of census workers, this time, either. The bureau is expecting <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/2021-census-ready-operate-covid-safe-way">the overwhelming majority</a> of people to complete the census online, with reminders sent out by mail.</p>
<p>So the digital-first strategy that caused such a stir in 2016 was an important trial run for the contactless conditions necessary during a pandemic. Some other <a href="https://rtc-cea.cepal.org/sites/default/files/document/files/UNFPA_Census_COVID19_digital.pdf">countries</a> have <a href="https://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/news-and-events/">postponed</a> their national census programs (like Scotland) and even risked <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/03/2020-census-extended-due-to-low-participation-covid-19-woes.html">COVID-19 exposure</a> by going ahead regardless (like Indonesia). But Australia’s preparations will enable a vital undertaking to continue safely.</p>
<h2>What’s changed in terms of the questions?</h2>
<p>According to the bureau, this year will include the “first significant changes to the information collected in the census since 2006”. (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/aug/11/lesson-of-censusfail-continued-funding-cuts-mean-agencies-cant-do-their-job">Funding cuts</a> since the 2001 have previously prohibited questionnaire refreshes.)</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/census-2016-reveals-australia-is-becoming-much-more-diverse-but-can-we-trust-the-data-79835">Census 2016 reveals Australia is becoming much more diverse – but can we trust the data?</a>
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<p>2021 will see new questions about long-term health conditions and defence force service. Sex beyond the binary of male/female will be also collected for the first time for all. These new additions to census have been made possible by the removal of the household internet connection question.</p>
<p>Improvements have also been made to better capture language and ancestry of First Nations Australians.</p>
<p>Census questions still have some way to go to better reflect contemporary Australia. But any changes to the census need to be understood by all.</p>
<p>Sexual orientation and <a href="https://www.australianpopulationstudies.org/index.php/aps/article/view/80">gender identity</a>, living in <a href="https://www.australianpopulationstudies.org/index.php/aps/article/view/75">more than one place</a>, and <a href="https://www.australianpopulationstudies.org/index.php/aps/article/view/82">ethnicity</a> are among improvements identified by demographers and social researchers for Census 2026, for example.</p>
<h2>What will we get out of Census 2021?</h2>
<p>The census has the power to say much about a nation and how populations are changing. While there will be no specific questions on COVID-19, the data will provide valuable insights into the impacts of the coronavirus on Australians. With the 2016 data now five years old, more up-to-date information is needed to make plans for the future.</p>
<p>With so many people in Australia in lockdown, the census will gauge the economic and social impacts of COVID-19 in a way no other data undertaking has been able to achieve yet. Individuals, communities and economic activities affected by COVID-19 will be reflected.</p>
<p>Census 2021 is no ordinary population survey – it will lay the foundation for Australia’s post-pandemic future by informing the nation’s social and economic recovery, including measuring the success of the vaccination rollout through improved population data. It’s more important than ever that we get this census right.</p>
<p>Results from Census 2021 will become available from <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/research/2021-census-topics-and-data-release-plan">June next year</a>.</p>
<h2>The future of the census</h2>
<p>A number of countries, such as <a href="https://sites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/dbassesite/documents/webpage/dbasse_088800.pdf">The Netherlands</a>, have moved away from traditional census taking. Instead opting for data compilation performed using routine government data collected through administrative interactions. Like Medicare and Centrelink data being compiled by government for your <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-world-awash-with-data-is-the-census-still-relevant-70642">census submission</a>. </p>
<p>The Australian Statistician David Gruen, has foreshadowed <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/2021-census-could-be-australia-s-last-five-yearly-population-snapshot-20201207-p56l6n">such a possibility</a> for Australia. The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51468919">United Kingdom</a> is also thinking about it. This approach is a concern as it excludes individuals and communities from a vital participatory undertaking, and the data quality suffers as people can no longer self-report information.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-world-awash-with-data-is-the-census-still-relevant-70642">In a world awash with data, is the census still relevant?</a>
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<p>In its current form, census data is accessible, and contributed to, by all. Australia’s census data enable everyone from researchers, to policymakers, to ordinary individuals the power to hold <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-has-victoria-struggled-more-than-nsw-with-covid-to-a-demographer-theyre-not-that-different-161996">government to account</a>.
It belongs to all of us.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164784/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liz Allen worked at the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) between 2006 and 2007. Liz has no ongoing employment or financial links with the ABS. Liz is a user of ABS data for research purposes.</span></em></p>Census 2021 is no ordinary population survey – it will lay the foundation for Australia’s post-pandemic future.Liz Allen, Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1014612018-09-26T20:17:27Z2018-09-26T20:17:27ZFactCheck: do ‘over a million’ people in Australia not speak English ‘well or at all’?<blockquote>
<p>A growing number of people in Australia cannot speak English well or at all, over a million people.</p>
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<p><strong>– Senator Pauline Hanson, <a href="https://www.senatorhanson.com.au/2018/09/19/protect-our-australian-way-of-life-senate-speech/">Senate speech</a>, September 19, 2018</strong></p>
<p>One Nation Party leader and Senator for Queensland Pauline Hanson is urging a rethink on Australia’s immigration policy, including changes to the “number and mix” of migrants coming to the country. </p>
<p>In a Senate speech, Hanson outlined a number of concerns she has with what she described as Australia’s “failed immigration policy”, including issues with social integration and the establishment of “culturally separate communities”.</p>
<p>The senator said a “growing number of people in Australia cannot speak English well or at all, over a million people”.</p>
<p>Is that right?</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>In response to The Conversation’s request for sources and comment, an advisor to Senator Hanson accurately cited Census data showing the number of people who self-reported they spoke English “not well” or “not at all” was 820,000 in 2016, up from 655,000 in 2011 and 560,000 in 2006. </p>
<p>To reach a calculation of “over a million people” in 2018, Hanson’s office:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>added 66,000 people to the 2016 Census results, based on the assumption that the growth in the number of people in this category would be the same between the 2016 and 2021 Census as it was between 2011 and 2016, and</p></li>
<li><p>added a further 149,294 people to the 2016 results, based on the assumption that 10% of the 1,492,947 people who didn’t respond to the question in the Census about language proficiency did not speak English “well or at all”. </p></li>
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<p>You can read the full response from Hanson’s office <a href="https://theconversation.com/full-response-from-pauline-hanson-for-a-factcheck-on-english-language-proficiency-in-australia-103757">here</a>. </p>
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<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Senator Pauline Hanson said “a growing number of people in Australia cannot speak English well or at all, over a million people”. </p>
<p>The most up to date information available on this question comes from the 2016 Census. The data show that the number of people who self-reported speaking English “not well” or “not at all” in that year was 820,000. </p>
<p>Hanson was correct to say that number has been growing, from 560,000 people in 2006 to 820,000 people in 2016. This amounts to a rise from 2.8% of Australian residents in 2006 to 3.5% in 2016.</p>
<p>Over the same time, among people who speak a language other than English at home, the percentage of people who self-reported speaking English “not well” or “not at all” fell, from 17.5% in 2006 to 16.6% in 2016.</p>
<p>It’s important to keep in mind that self-reporting is not the most accurate measure. Some people will over-estimate their language capabilities, while others will under-estimate theirs. </p>
<hr>
<h2>What do the data show?</h2>
<p>In its five-yearly Australian Census, the Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2900.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EENGP%20Proficiency%20in%20Spoken%20English%7E10054">asks people</a> who speak a language other than English at home to state how well they speak English. </p>
<p>Respondents can choose from <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2901.0Chapter3202016">four options</a>: “very well”, “well”, “not well”, or “not at all”. The categories “not well” and “not at all” are reported together. </p>
<p>In the 2016 Census, <a href="http://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/communityprofile/036?opendocument">4.9 million people</a> reported speaking a language other than English at home. </p>
<p>Of those people, the number of people who reported they spoke English “not well” or “not at all” was 820,000. </p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6lO9L/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Hanson was correct to say the number of respondents who ticked the “not well” or “not at all” categories has been rising – from 560,000 people in 2006, to 655,000 people in 2011 and 820,000 in 2016.</p>
<p>But of course, the overall Australian population has also grown over that time.
So let’s look at the numbers as a proportion of the broader Australian population. On this measure, it amounts to a rise from 2.8% of all Australian residents in 2006 to 3.5% in 2016.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/X6ciV/5/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="508"></iframe>
<p>Over the same time, the percentage of bilingual residents who reported speaking English “not well” or “not at all” fell slightly, from 17.5% in 2006 to 16.6% in 2016. </p>
<p>That means within the bilingual population, there was an improvement in perceived English language skills between 2006 and 2016. </p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qUV0X/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="508"></iframe>
<p>Hanson said there were now “over a million” people in Australia who “cannot speak English well or at all”. There are two potential problems with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/full-response-from-pauline-hanson-for-a-factcheck-on-english-language-proficiency-in-australia-103757">calculations made</a> to come to this conclusion.</p>
<p>Firstly: the calculation assumes the same rate of growth in the number of people who speak English “not well” or “not at all” between 2016 and 2021 as it was between 2011 and 2016. </p>
<p>The number of people with little or no English language capability is largely a function of the overall migrant intake. As our overall migrant intake has increased, the absolute number of new arrivals with little or no English language capability has also increased.</p>
<p>However, since the 1990s, our migration program has become <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australia-s-migrant-intake-hits-10-year-low-under-turnbull">increasingly selective</a> and the <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/lega/lega/form/immi-faqs/aelt">English language requirements</a> for permanent residency have <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2005.tb00284.x">risen</a>.</p>
<p>Second, the projected growth rate suggests that not speaking English well is an unalterable characteristic, and that new entrants with little English capability simply add to the existing number.</p>
<p>This assumption doesn’t account for the likelihood that many recent immigrants who responded that they did not speak English well or at all in the 2016 Census will have improved their English (or their confidence, or both) by 2021 and will respond that they speak English “well” or “very well” then.</p>
<h2>How accurate are the data?</h2>
<p>The Census data provide us with a rough guide to English language proficiency, but it’s not a particularly valid or reliable measure. </p>
<p>That’s because the judgements made in the survey are subjective. There’s no definition around what speaking English “well” or “not well” means. One person may overestimate their English proficiency, while another person may underestimate theirs.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2901.0Chapter48102016">noted by</a> the Australian Bureau of Statistics:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… one respondent may consider that a response of ‘Well’ is appropriate if they can communicate well enough to do the shopping, while another respondent may consider such a response appropriate only for people who can hold a social conversation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As such, these data should be interpreted with care. </p>
<p>Self-assessment <em>can</em> be a valid tool in determining language proficiency. But for that to be the case, the questions need to be much more detailed and sophisticated.</p>
<p>So while we can state that 820,000 Australians reported speaking English “not well” or “not at all” in the 2016 census, it’s not possible to determine what that means in terms of their actual ability to communicate in their everyday lives.</p>
<h2>Most bilingual residents speak English ‘well’ or ‘very well’</h2>
<p>The vast majority of bilingual Australian residents report speaking English “well” or “very well” – more than 4 million out of 4.9 million. </p>
<p>Evidence of a certain level of English language proficiency is a <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/trav/work/work/age-skill-and-english-language-exemptions-permanent-employer-sponsored-programme">visa requirement</a> for most permanent migrants, and many temporary migrants. The key exceptions are humanitarian and family reunion migrants, whose reasons for admission supersede the immediate language requirements. </p>
<p>New citizens are also subject to an <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/trav/citi/pathways-processes/citizenship-test/about-the-citizenship-test">Australian citizenship test</a>, which is an implicit English language test, requiring a certain level of English language proficiency to pass.</p>
<p>The number of people in Australia with little or no English language capability depends not only on the number and mix of new migrants admitted, but the English language training provisions made available to those people when they arrive. <strong>– Ingrid Piller</strong></p>
<hr>
<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>I agree with the verdict of this FactCheck. The sources used and conclusions drawn are correct. <strong>– Amanda Muller</strong></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit was the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101461/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ingrid Piller receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Humboldt Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Senator Pauline Hanson raised concerns about immigration and social cohesion, saying ‘more than a million people’ in Australia ‘cannot speak English well or at all’. Let’s look at the numbers.Ingrid Piller, Professor of Applied Linguistics, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/955142018-05-07T08:43:15Z2018-05-07T08:43:15ZFactCheck Q&A: do ‘about 30% of homeless people have a job’?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/216079/original/file-20180424-94132-176hhaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1278%2C718&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Social researcher and author Rebecca Huntley, speaking on Q&A.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABC/Q&A</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>The Conversation fact-checks claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9.35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> using the hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a> or by <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>.</strong></p>
<hr>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/69G2bzYhsw8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, April 23, 2018.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<blockquote>
<p>What’s incredible when you look at those numbers is about 30% - it’s hard to tell often - about 30% of those homeless people have a job.</p>
<p><strong>– Rebecca Huntley, social researcher and author, speaking on Q&A, April 23, 2018</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Inequality, class and social mobility in Australia were key issues discussed on a recent episode of Q&A.</p>
<p>Social researcher and author Rebecca Huntley noted an uptick in the idea of “the undeserving poor” in Australia – particularly where homeless people are concerned.</p>
<p>Huntley noted the perception held by some that homeless Australians are simply “not working hard enough”.</p>
<p>Challenging that narrative, Huntley said “about 30% of those homeless people have a job”.</p>
<p>Is that right?</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>In response to The Conversation’s request for sources, Huntley provided data from the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/2049.0">Census of Population and Housing: Estimating homelessness, 2016</a> report, published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in March 2018.</p>
<p>Huntley also pointed to the article: “<a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/04/21/the-rise-homelessness-and-hunger/15242328006116">The rise of homelessness and hunger</a>”, written by Mike Seccombe and published in The Saturday Paper, and the website of “<a href="http://www.nhc.edu.au/sessions/everybodys-home-a-national-housing-campaign/">Everybody’s Home – A National Housing Campaign</a>”.</p>
<p>Huntley added:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/PrimaryMainFeatures/2049.0?OpenDocument">definition of homelessness</a> in the Census is probably broader than community perceptions about homelessness – that is, that all homeless people are sleeping rough on the streets.</p>
<p>People who are couch surfing or living in their car or living in overcrowded accommodation may well fit into this definition. They may also be working in the gig economy or getting work here and there (the double whammy of insecure work and insecure housing is quite terrible).</p>
<p>What the Census 2016 data show is that there are people with post compulsory education, with various levels of work and hours worked across all categories of people living in insecure housing arrangements.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Based on the best available data, Rebecca Huntley’s statement that “about 30% of … homeless people have a job” is correct. </p>
<p>According to Census 2016 data, about 30% of people who were recorded as being homeless on Census night (using the Australian Bureau of Statistics definition of homeless) were also recorded as being in the work force.</p>
<hr>
<h2>What does it mean to be ‘homeless’?</h2>
<p>When we talk about “homelessness”, many of us would think about people “sleeping rough” on the street. This is arguably the most severe and literal form of homelessness. But the state of being homeless is more complex than that. </p>
<p>Under the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/2049.0Appendix12016?opendocument&tabname=Notes&prodno=2049.0&issue=2016&num=&view=">definition</a>, a person can be considered homeless if their current living arrangement:</p>
<ul>
<li>is in a dwelling that is inadequate</li>
<li>has no tenure, or if their initial tenure is short and not extendable, or</li>
<li>does not allow them to have control of, and access to space for social relations.</li>
</ul>
<p>The ABS presents its estimates of homelessness using these groupings: </p>
<ul>
<li>People living in improvised dwellings, tents or sleeping out</li>
<li>People in supported accommodation for the homeless</li>
<li>People staying temporarily with other households</li>
<li>People living in boarding houses</li>
<li>People in other temporary lodgings, and</li>
<li>People living in “severely” crowded dwellings.</li>
</ul>
<p>On the night of the 2016 Census, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2049.0Explanatory%20Notes12016?OpenDocument">more than 116,000 people</a> were counted as being homeless. This includes both children and adults. The estimates of the employment rate include only those age 15 and over.</p>
<p>This may be a conservative count, because some groups of people may be underenumerated (under counted) in the Census. </p>
<p>For example, the ABS <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2049.0Explanatory%20Notes12016?OpenDocument">notes</a> that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples’ are “more likely to be both underenumerated and over represented in the homeless population”, and that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>So called rough sleepers and people staying in supported accommodation for the homeless are also at risk of being underenumerated in the Census.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>What constitutes ‘a job’?</h2>
<p>In the Census data, people are counted as being employed if they are of working age (age 15 and over) and:</p>
<ul>
<li>employed and working full-time</li>
<li>employed and working part-time, and/or</li>
<li>employed but away from work.</li>
</ul>
<p>However, not all people age 15 and over who were experiencing homelessness were counted in the Census labour force statistics. For some people, no information was recorded.</p>
<h2>Known employment rates for homeless people</h2>
<p>If we calculate the <em>known</em> employment rate for homeless people (using the ABS definition of homelessness outlined above), we find that around 30% are employed, as Rebecca Huntley said on Q&A.</p>
<p>But the employment rate among homeless people could be higher. </p>
<p>That’s because we don’t have employment information for <em>all</em> homeless people. In the Census statistics, there are large numbers of people for whom information on employment status is missing, or not stated. </p>
<p>Overall, we don’t have records of the employment status of about 18% of the total homeless population.</p>
<p>Also, many people experiencing homelessness could be in situations where they wouldn’t be expected to work. For example, full-time students or the elderly. </p>
<p>This makes 30% likely to be the lower bound.</p>
<p>If we assume that the employment rate of those with missing information is the same as those with recorded information, the employment rate would increase to 36%. If we also excluded full-time students and the elderly from these statistics, the rate would be even higher.</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/papGo/4/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="500"></iframe>
<hr>
<h2>Employment rate for people ‘sleeping rough’</h2>
<p>“Sleeping rough”, or sleeping on the street, is arguably the most severe form of homelessness. </p>
<p>People sleeping rough are the group with the highest proportion of missing information on labour force status. The <em>known</em> employment rate for people sleeping rough is 10%.</p>
<p>If about half of the people with missing information were employed, the rate would go up to 30%. My assumption for this group is that most of those people with missing information are not employed.</p>
<p>So for those sleeping rough, the employment rate is probably closer to 10-15%. </p>
<p>The employment rate for people in supported accommodation is also likely to be around 10-15%. These two groups are those usually considered when a more literal definition of homelessness is used.</p>
<p>But as outlined in this FactCheck, the state of being “homeless” is more complex and wide ranging than that. </p>
<h2>‘Journeys Home’ survey</h2>
<p>Another useful data set on homelessness and employment is the Melbourne Institute’s <a href="http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/2202838/Scutella_et_al_Journeys_Home_Research_Report_W1.pdf">Journeys Home</a> survey, of which I was the Deputy Director. </p>
<p>This longitudinal survey, which began in 2011 and concluded in 2014, included 1,682 people in Australia flagged by Centrelink as either “homeless” or “at-risk of homelessness”. </p>
<p>The survey also included a group of income support recipients who were not flagged as homeless, but who had characteristics similar to those who had been homeless. </p>
<p>The overall rate of employment among all respondents was 27%. Of those who were homeless, 19% were employed. </p>
<p>In our study, however, we did not include those in overcrowded accommodation as being homeless. (These people are identified as being homeless in the Census).</p>
<p>This highlights the importance of the definition of “homelessness” used when considering the characteristics of the homeless population.</p>
<p>It’s also important to remember that just because someone isn’t employed doesn’t mean they don’t <em>want</em> to be employed, or aren’t seeking employment. Being homeless is a significant barrier to gaining – and retaining – a job. <strong>– Rosanna Scutella</strong></p>
<hr>
<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>I agree with the verdict of this FactCheck that the overall rate of employment among people experiencing or being at-risk of homelessness is in the vicinity of 30%.</p>
<p>I would add that findings from <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-grim-cycle-of-homelessness-and-unemployment">my research</a> using the Journeys Home data reveal that homelessness is more strongly associated with difficulty in <em>retaining</em> employment than with finding employment. <strong>– Neha Swami</strong></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit was the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95514/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rosanna Scutella was Deputy Director of the Journeys Home study, which was funded by the Commonwealth Department of Social Security.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neha Swami does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Q&A, social researcher and author Rebecca Huntley said “about 30%” of homeless people have a job. Is that right?Rosanna Scutella, Senior Research Fellow, Social and Global Studies Centre, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/913282018-02-14T00:43:23Z2018-02-14T00:43:23ZFactCheck Q&A: are ‘almost 60%’ of small business owners paid ‘$50,000 or less’?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205202/original/file-20180207-58152-ekn5aa.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1%2C1003%2C562&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive James Pearson, speaking on Q&A.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABC Q&A</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>The Conversation fact-checks claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9.35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> using hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a> or by <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>.</strong></p>
<hr>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ok3uy-QL0z4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, February 5, 2018.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<blockquote>
<p>Almost 60% of small business owners in this country are paid $50,000 or less.</p>
<p><strong>– Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive James Pearson, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ok3uy-QL0z4&feature=youtu.be">speaking on Q&A</a>, February 5, 2018</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Turnbull government is seeking parliamentary support to cut the company tax rate to 25% over the coming decade, arguing that cutting the rate will <a href="https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/keynote-address-toowoomba-queensland-thursday-1-february-2018">increase business investment, drive jobs growth</a> and <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-commits-to-keeping-company-tax-cuts-in-the-budget-until-next-election-20180209-p4yzto.html">lift wages</a> in Australia.</p>
<p>During an <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s4758627.htm">episode of Q&A</a>, Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive James Pearson said small business owners would benefit from a company tax cut in Australia. He said it would “help them be profitable”, allowing them to grow their businesses, employ more people and pay those workers more. </p>
<p>Pearson said “almost 60% of small business owners in this country are paid $50,000 or less”.</p>
<p>Is that right?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206319/original/file-20180214-174966-11w98qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206319/original/file-20180214-174966-11w98qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206319/original/file-20180214-174966-11w98qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206319/original/file-20180214-174966-11w98qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206319/original/file-20180214-174966-11w98qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206319/original/file-20180214-174966-11w98qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206319/original/file-20180214-174966-11w98qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>When asked for sources and comment to support James Pearson’s statement, a spokesperson for the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry provided The Conversation with the following graph.</p>
<p>It draws on unpublished Australian Taxation Office data and relates to the 2014-15 income year:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205637/original/file-20180209-180826-ikf8da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205637/original/file-20180209-180826-ikf8da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205637/original/file-20180209-180826-ikf8da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205637/original/file-20180209-180826-ikf8da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205637/original/file-20180209-180826-ikf8da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205637/original/file-20180209-180826-ikf8da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205637/original/file-20180209-180826-ikf8da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chart from the Australian Small Business and Family Enterprise Ombudsman using unpublished Australia Taxation Office data for the 2014-15 financial year. The data relate to individuals with a non-zero amount at any of the following labels on their 2014-15 tax return: distribution from a partnership or trusts (primary production or non-primary production) and/or net income or loss from business (primary production or non-primary production). The figures were produced to approximate the distribution of small business owners.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The spokesperson said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We combined the data for those earning less than $25,000 and those earning $25,000 to $50,000, to come up with the under $50,000 assessment of 58.1% earning less than $50,000.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The spokesperson added “we understand the percentages we raised publicly are percentages of all business owners” – as opposed to small business owners. However: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We don’t think it makes much of a difference. The overwhelming majority of Australian businesses are clearly small and medium-sized enterprises, and the majority of business owners are small business owners.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>James Pearson’s statement that “almost 60% of small business owners in this country are paid $50,000 or less” is in the ballpark. </p>
<p>Based on Australia Taxation Office data from the 2014-15 financial year and Census 2016 data, it’s reasonable to say that between 50% to 60% of small business owners or managers earned less than $50,000 in those years.</p>
<p>However, Pearson used this information in the context of company tax rate cuts, arguing that small business owners “want a tax cut that will help them be profitable”.</p>
<p>In reality, due to the way Australia’s tax system works, it’s the small business owner’s <em>personal</em> income tax rate that is more relevant for the profitability of their business.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Calculating small business owner salaries</h2>
<p>There’s <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/business/small-business-entity-concessions/eligibility/">more</a> <a href="http://asic.gov.au/for-business/your-business/small-business/small-business-overview/small-business-what-is-small-business/">than</a> <a href="https://www.fwc.gov.au/termination-of-employment/unfair-dismissal">one</a> definition for ‘small business’ in Australia, and there’s no perfect data set against which to test Pearson’s statement.</p>
<p>But we can assess the Australian Taxation Office data Pearson’s office provided, and we can also look at Census 2016 data. </p>
<p>Pearson’s spokesperson provided The Conversation with a graph based on unpublished Australian Taxation Office data for the 2014-15 financial year. The Conversation verified the information in the graph with the Australian Taxation Office.</p>
<p>The graph shows that in 2014-15, 58.1% of the business owners listed earned less than $50,000. But the data aren’t specific to small business owners, and don’t include taxable income people received through companies – only through partnerships, trusts or as sole traders.</p>
<p>A spokesperson for the Australian Taxation Office told The Conversation the “figures were produced to approximate the distribution of small business owners”.</p>
<p>Now let’s look at <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/2016">Census 2016 data</a>. </p>
<p><a href="http://asic.gov.au/for-business/your-business/small-business/small-business-overview/small-business-what-is-small-business/">According to</a> the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, “many regulators have informally adopted the definition of ‘small business’ used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics” – which is a business that employs <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/1321.0">fewer than 20 people</a>.</p>
<p>If we look at Census 2016 data using that measure, then we see that 50% of small business owners were paid less than $1,000 per week in 2016 – or $52,000 per year or less.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206316/original/file-20180214-174986-ig8bux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206316/original/file-20180214-174986-ig8bux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206316/original/file-20180214-174986-ig8bux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206316/original/file-20180214-174986-ig8bux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206316/original/file-20180214-174986-ig8bux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206316/original/file-20180214-174986-ig8bux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206316/original/file-20180214-174986-ig8bux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206316/original/file-20180214-174986-ig8bux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Putting Pearson’s statement in context</h2>
<p>In making his statement, Pearson described the financial struggles facing some small business owners. Pearson said these people “want a tax cut, they want a tax cut that will help them be profitable”. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>They’ll employ more people, they’ll offer longer hours, more people will have jobs, more people will be paid more. That’s how it works.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Pearson added that when small business owners “see more productivity in their workforce, they can take the risk and grow their business”. </p>
<p>But the reality is, when an Australian resident is trying to decide whether to invest in their small business, it’s their personal income tax rate, not the company tax rate, that really matters. </p>
<p>Why?</p>
<p>Because company tax paid by Australian businesses on income earned in Australia acts as a ‘pre-payment’ of personal income tax when that income is distributed to shareholders in the company (or the owners of the company) via <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/frankeddividend.asp">franked dividend payments</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/taxation-statistics-2014-15/resource/b51ea9cc-4eac-4b25-b45a-175d7797c9d5">Australian Taxation Office</a> statistics show that in the 2014-15 financial year, more than 95% of dividends paid to Australian households were franked.</p>
<p>The fact that Australian business owners can claim back any tax paid by their businesses when they lodge their <em>personal</em> tax returns makes their personal income tax rate the more relevant concern to the potential profitability of their business.</p>
<p>In addition, Pearson argued that company tax cuts would lead to higher wages, a statement supported by the <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/analysis-of-the-long-term-effects-of-a-company-tax-cut/">Australian Treasury</a>. The Treasury modelling shows that the wage hike would be the result of greater foreign investment in Australia, leaving the owners of small businesses needing to pay higher wages to attract or retain workers.</p>
<p>Small business owners who receive their income via franked dividends won’t receive any tax relief to cover this expense. So it’s possible that cuts to the company tax rate could hinder small businesses, rather than benefit them. <strong>– Janine Dixon and Jason Nassios</strong></p>
<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>This verdict finds a reasonable level of support from the available data.</p>
<p><a href="http://researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au/islandora/object/uws:28654">Research</a> from the University of Western Sydney <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/newscentre/news_centre/story_archive/2014/australias_business_owners_income-poor_but_asset-rich">published in 2014</a>, based on <a href="http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda">HILDA</a> data and Australian Bureau of Statistics data, found that business owner <em>households</em> (as opposed to individuals) reported an average weekly income of $1,975 in 2010. That’s around $103,000 per household.</p>
<p>If there were two adults per household, this would equate to $51,500 per person.</p>
<p>Also, because the ‘average’ is skewed upwards by high income earners, 50% of earners would earn less than the average, which lends further support to Pearson’s statement.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.payscale.com/research/AU/Job=Small_Business_Owner_%2F_Operator/Hourly_Rate">Information published</a> by an American company called PayScale suggests the average salary for a small business owner/operator in Australia is around $67,000 per year, and the median salary is $62,000. </p>
<p>If true, this would not be consistent with the claim that almost 60% of small business owners earn less than $50,000 per year. However, this information is based on a survey with a relatively small sample size. This source is a private sector consulting firm, and no other detail on their data source is provided. <strong>– Ross Guest</strong></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit was the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ross Guest has received funding from the ARC in the past. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janine Dixon and Jason Nassios do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Q&A, Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive James Pearson said almost 60% of small business owners in Australia are paid $50,000 or less. Is that right?Janine Dixon, Economist at Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria UniversityJason Nassios, Research Fellow, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/862032017-12-03T19:23:32Z2017-12-03T19:23:32ZRadical rethink of Closing the Gap required, despite some progress<p>The tracking of health, education and employment outcomes has come to be a key plank of Indigenous affairs policy in Australia in recent years. </p>
<p>The focus on measuring progress against a set of indicators is most prominent through the <a href="https://closingthegap.pmc.gov.au">Closing the Gap</a> report, which the prime minister has presented to parliament each year since 2009. </p>
<p>The annual report, and its accompanying <a href="http://www.federalfinancialrelations.gov.au/content/npa/health/_archive/indigenous-reform/national-agreement_sept_12.pdf">Council of Australian Governments agreement</a>, sets out progress toward seven specific targets. The areas measured are health (life expectancy, child mortality), education (early childhood education, school attendance, literacy and numeracy, Year 12 attainment), and paid employment.</p>
<p>The latest <a href="http://closingthegap.pmc.gov.au/">Closing the Gap Report</a> indicated that only one of these targets – to halve the gap in Year 12 attainment by 2020 – was on track to be met. To that end, the release of <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/2016+Census+National">2016 Census data</a> in November provides a valuable update on three of the seven targets.</p>
<h2>Criticism of the Closing the Gap approach</h2>
<p>The “Closing the Gap” approach to Indigenous affairs has come under sustained criticism from several quarters. Some have <a href="http://content.iospress.com/articles/statistical-journal-of-the-iaos/sji896">critiqued</a> its approach to monitoring because it focuses on the needs of government rather than the aspirations of Indigenous people. Critics also say it highlights problems rather than strengths. </p>
<p>A further drawback relates to the use of relative measures. This means improvements to Indigenous outcomes (such as reduced smoking) <a href="https://croakey.org/its-time-for-another-type-of-story-about-indigenous-smoking-rates/">may be obscured</a> if the non-Indigenous outcome also improves.</p>
<p>More fundamentally, the Closing the Gap framework risks failing to acknowledge that statistical gaps are the result of powerlessness and a lack of resources. This blindspot matters because it suggests that gap-closing is only a technical policy matter, rather than also being a political issue.</p>
<p>If statistical gaps are to be closed, structural inequalities must be tackled, such as through constitutional reform to create a representative Indigenous “voice to parliament”. </p>
<p>The targets continue to serve at least one useful purpose: they ensure all levels of government are held accountable for meeting, or failing to meet, their policy goals. </p>
<h2>Paid employment</h2>
<p><a href="https://closingthegap.pmc.gov.au/employment">One target</a> aims to “halve the gap in employment outcomes between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians within a decade (by 2018)”. If this were measured using census data, it would imply a government agreement that 57% of working-age Indigenous people would be employed by 2016.</p>
<p>The chart below shows the Indigenous employment rate has declined dramatically in remote areas. It increased only very slightly between 2006 and 2016 in non-remote areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196847/original/file-20171129-28846-3ps8bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196847/original/file-20171129-28846-3ps8bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196847/original/file-20171129-28846-3ps8bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196847/original/file-20171129-28846-3ps8bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196847/original/file-20171129-28846-3ps8bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196847/original/file-20171129-28846-3ps8bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196847/original/file-20171129-28846-3ps8bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Employment-to-population ratios for working-age Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, 2006-2016, by remoteness. The employment-to-population ratio is the number of working-age people employed divided by the working-age population.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors' calculations from the 2006, 2011 and 2016 censuses, using the 2011 remoteness boundaries.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The phased abolition of the <a href="http://caepr.anu.edu.au/Publications/topical/2009TI5.php">Community Development Employment Projects</a> (CDEP) has driven much of the remote employment decline. This was a locally led job creation and community development program that was treated as employment. </p>
<p>The work-for-the-dole scheme that replaced the CDEP has been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-29/why-aboriginal-australians-are-still-having-their-wages-stolen/9202472">criticised</a> for its onerous activity requirements and below-award rates of pay. </p>
<p>One of the consequences of abolishing these jobs has been the transition of CDEP participants into statistical unemployment – hence the drop in the employment rate. This is likely to lead to falling incomes, which is especially concerning given the already alarmingly high Indigenous poverty rates in remote Australia.</p>
<p>However, according to the census data, a large number of Indigenous people appear to have dropped out of the labour market entirely. The graph below shows the labour force participation rate, which is calculated as the sum of the employed population and those looking for work, as a percentage of the working-age population.</p>
<p>While the participation rate has been increasing slowly in non-remote areas, it is still well short of being on track to halve the gap by 2018. In remote areas, a large number of working-age Indigenous persons have left the labour market altogether, with the participation rate falling by 7% over the decade to 2016.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196848/original/file-20171129-28866-1r8vgco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196848/original/file-20171129-28866-1r8vgco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196848/original/file-20171129-28866-1r8vgco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196848/original/file-20171129-28866-1r8vgco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196848/original/file-20171129-28866-1r8vgco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196848/original/file-20171129-28866-1r8vgco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196848/original/file-20171129-28866-1r8vgco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labour force participation rates for working-age Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, 2006-2016, by remoteness. The participation rate is the number of working-age people employed or actively looking for work as a percentage of the working-age population.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors' calculations from the 2006, 2011 and 2016 censuses, using the 2011 remoteness boundaries.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If employment gaps are to close in remote areas, a radically different policy approach is needed. Current approaches, which do not empower or resource Indigenous people to create jobs, are clearly failing.</p>
<h2>Year 12 attainment</h2>
<p>High school attainment is the good news story among the Closing the Gap measures. </p>
<p><a href="https://closingthegap.pmc.gov.au/education">This target</a> aims to “halve the gap for Indigenous students in Year 12 attainment or equivalent attainment rates (by 2020)”. While both Indigenous and non-Indigenous high school attainment rates are increasing, they are increasing fastest for the Indigenous population, and fastest still in remote areas.</p>
<p>The chart below shows the high school attainment rate for 20-to-24-year-olds. Indigenous high school attainment rates increased nationally by 18% over the decade to 2016. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196849/original/file-20171129-28866-jpwf6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196849/original/file-20171129-28866-jpwf6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196849/original/file-20171129-28866-jpwf6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196849/original/file-20171129-28866-jpwf6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196849/original/file-20171129-28866-jpwf6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196849/original/file-20171129-28866-jpwf6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196849/original/file-20171129-28866-jpwf6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">High school attainment or equivalent among Indigenous and non-Indigenous 20-to-24-year-olds, 2006-2016, by remoteness. Attainment is defined as completion of Year 12 or attainment of a qualification at Certificate II level or higher.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors' calculations from the 2006, 2011 and 2016 censuses, using the 2011 remoteness boundaries.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It remains to be seen whether this increasingly educated younger Indigenous cohort will find employment opportunities. </p>
<p>Given the success in meeting this target, policy attention should now turn to ensuring that the quality of education that Indigenous Australians achieve approaches that of the non-Indigenous population, and that the convergence in education rates continues beyond 2020. </p>
<h2>Pre-school enrolment</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.federalfinancialrelations.gov.au/content/npa/health/_archive/indigenous-reform/national-agreement_sept_12.pdf">initial Closing the Gap target</a>, agreed to by the heads of government in 2009, aimed for complete access to preschool for Indigenous children in remote communities.</p>
<p>By 2013, that target was still far from being met. Consequently, it was <a href="https://www.coag.gov.au/sites/default/files/communique/COAG_Communique_20151211.pdf">replaced by a more modest target</a> of 95% Indigenous early childhood education enrolment nationally by 2025. </p>
<p>Progress towards <a href="https://closingthegap.pmc.gov.au/infancy-and-early-childhood">this target</a> is particularly difficult to measure.</p>
<p>In the chart below, we use census data from 2006, 2011 and 2016 to track progress toward this goal, while noting that some census data respondents may not classify long daycare as a form of preschool.</p>
<p>If these data are credible, despite the relatively rapid increase in Indigenous preschool enrolments between 2011 and 2016, the revised Closing the Gap target will still not be met.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196850/original/file-20171129-28899-hlyg4r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196850/original/file-20171129-28899-hlyg4r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196850/original/file-20171129-28899-hlyg4r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196850/original/file-20171129-28899-hlyg4r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196850/original/file-20171129-28899-hlyg4r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196850/original/file-20171129-28899-hlyg4r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196850/original/file-20171129-28899-hlyg4r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Preschool attendance among four-to-five-year-olds not attending school.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors' calculations from the 2006, 2011 and 2016 censuses, using the 2011 remoteness boundaries.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Time for a rethink</h2>
<p>As a result of the sustained failure to close gaps and critique from Indigenous people, the federal government is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-23/closing-the-gap-strategy-overhaul/9076650">rethinking</a> the Closing the Gap targets. </p>
<p>It’s promising that this overhaul includes plans to incorporate the perspectives of Indigenous people through the National Congress of Australia’s First Peoples. Measures of “success” or “progress” for the Indigenous population must only be defined by Indigenous people themselves. </p>
<p>The deteriorating employment outcomes in remote Australia suggest a radical rethink is urgently needed to put resources – and the power to direct them – into Indigenous hands.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francis Markham's research centre receives funding from the Commonwealth Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Biddle's research centre receives funding from the Commonwealth Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet.</span></em></p>The latest census data reveals valuable insights into Closing the Gap targets. While there’s some improvement in school attendance rates, all other indicators suggest a radical rethink is required.Francis Markham, Research Fellow, College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityNicholas Biddle, Associate Professor, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/861372017-10-24T19:07:13Z2017-10-24T19:07:13ZCensus data shows just how bad we’ve been at closing inequality gaps<p>The <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/Home/2016%20Census%20Community%20Profiles">latest round of 2016 census data</a> shows that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/census-the-gig-economy-has-taken-hold-in-australia-2017-10">the gig economy has taken hold in Australia</a>, that there has been a <a href="https://thewest.com.au/business/economy/census-2016-reveals-huge-surge-in-fitness-beauty-barista-jobs-while-manufacturing-work-falls-24pc-ng-b88636861z">huge surge in fitness, beauty and barista jobs</a>; and that even though we’re <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/worldtoday/census-australians-working-less-women-still-doing-more-housework/9076714">working less, women still do the most housework</a>.</p>
<p>But if we look past these headlines, the Census gives us a unique insight into the economic outcomes of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, single parents, those entering the labour market and those coming to the end of their working life.</p>
<p>What we see is geographic divergence in Indigenous employment, declines in employment for single parents and the young, and the news is mixed for those entering retirement age.</p>
<h2>Indigenous employment outcomes</h2>
<p>One of the targets of the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook44p/ClosingGap">Closing the Gap</a> strategy (which is slated to undergo a “<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indigenous-closing-the-gap-strategy-facing-sweeping-overhaul-by-turnbull-government-20171022-gz61ix.html">sweeping overhaul</a>”) is to “halve the gap in employment outcomes between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians within a decade (by 2018).” </p>
<p>But the latest census data shows that there has been no demonstrable improvement in employment outcomes over that decade, or even in the five years between the <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/communityprofile/0">2011</a> and <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/communityprofile/036?opendocument">2016 Censuses</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="K2V9h" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/K2V9h/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Specifically, 44.1% of the adult Indigenous population was employed in 2016, compared to 44.2% in 2011. Over this period, employment rates for Indigenous women increased by 1.3%, but fell for Indigenous men by a similar amount.</p>
<p>For the total Australian population, there has been a decline in the employment-to-population ratio over the same period (61.4% to 60.2%). On this measure, there has been a small convergence between the Indigenous community and the total Australian populations. However, this will not lead to a closing or even a halving of the gap any time soon.</p>
<p><iframe id="tPrXD" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tPrXD/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>This national-level stagnation also hides considerable geographic variability, as shown in the map below. </p>
<p>In remote Australia, employment has fallen dramatically in most regions, with employment-to-population ratios plummeting by more than 15% in some regions. Much of this decline is likely attributable to the phasing out of the <a href="http://caepr.anu.edu.au/Subjects/Community-Development-Employment-Projects-CDEP">Community Development Employment Projects</a> scheme and its replacement with a work-for-the-dole program whose participants are classified as unemployed. </p>
<p>Clearly, current employment policies are failing to create sufficient jobs for Indigenous people in remote Australia.</p>
<p>In more populous areas, Indigenous employment has grown steadily, especially in NSW where employment growth has been particularly rapid and has been accompanied by substantial <a href="https://theconversation.com/census-2016-whats-changed-for-indigenous-australians-79836">population increase</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191345/original/file-20171023-1710-1yj5f45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191345/original/file-20171023-1710-1yj5f45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191345/original/file-20171023-1710-1yj5f45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191345/original/file-20171023-1710-1yj5f45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191345/original/file-20171023-1710-1yj5f45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191345/original/file-20171023-1710-1yj5f45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191345/original/file-20171023-1710-1yj5f45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Change in Indigenous employment-to-population ratios across Australia, 2011 - 2016, by Indigenous Region.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are many good arguments for rethinking the Closing the Gap targets. However, they have had the benefit of highlighting policy failure and success. Hopefully a renewed focus on strengths and positive achievements does not diminish this accountability.</p>
<h2>Single parent families</h2>
<p>According to the Census, there was 959,543 single parent families on the night of the Census. Of these, around 54.2% were employed, 5.9% were unemployed and the remainder not in the labour force. By comparison, in 90.6% of couple families with children, at least one parent was employed in 2016.</p>
<p><iframe id="UloEE" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UloEE/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><iframe id="ZCdL3" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZCdL3/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Through time, there are slightly fewer single parent families where the parent is employed as a percentage of all single parent families (54.7% in 2011 compared to 54.2% in 2016). </p>
<p>That is, despite considerable focus on <a href="https://theconversation.com/policycheck-the-governments-new-child-care-plan-75046">childcare</a>, significant changes to welfare policy, and a number of active labour market policies and changes to <a href="https://www.employment.gov.au/jobactive">employment support</a>, a child in a single parent household is less likely to have that parent employed than five years ago.</p>
<p>From a policy perspective, we should be careful about forcing single parents to work when they have caring responsibilities that cannot be substituted. However, we have to do better in providing the support, training and employment environment where those single parents who do want to work are able to. </p>
<p>This includes ensuring childcare is sufficiently flexible, affordable and of high quality, trialling <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/review-of-australias-welfare-system/australian-priority-investment-approach-to-welfare/try-test-and-learn-fund">targeted interventions</a> that boost skills and employability, and lessening the conditionality of parenting payments that <a href="https://taxpolicy.crawford.anu.edu.au/files/uploads/taxstudies_crawford_anu_edu_au/2016-08/ingles_plunkett_policy_brief_1_2016_last.pdf">reduce the incentives</a> for recipients to find work. </p>
<h2>New labour market entrants and those of retirement age</h2>
<p>The current labour market is clearly working for some, but not others. Two groups for whom employment is particularly important are the relatively young and those at the end of their working lives. </p>
<p>For the young, early exposure to long periods of unemployment or underemployment can be very costly <a href="http://ftp.iza.org/dp6198.pdf">throughout their lives</a>. Early periods of unemployment predict employment outcomes across their life. </p>
<p>For those nearing retirement age, maintaining an active and conscious engagement with the labour force (on their own terms) can support <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w12123">health outcomes and financial stability</a>.</p>
<p>Focusing on the young, to start with, we can look at the 25-29 year old population. For the majority of this group, school and post-school education is mostly finished, and child care and other responsibilities are yet to have kicked in. Over the last five years, however, employment for this group has gone backwards. </p>
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<p>Among the 25-29 year old group, the unemployment rate has increased from 5.9% to 7.1%, whereas the employment-to-population ratio has decreased from 78.4% to 77.1%. </p>
<p>The young adult labour market is not what it was pre-global financial crisis (the unemployment rate for 25-29 year olds in the 2006 Census was 5.6%), or at the peak of the mining boom. Clearly the macro-economy matters, but we also need to trial and adjust new types of active labour market support for young adults.</p>
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<p>As a society, we are going to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-mature-age-workers-on-the-job-85678">increasingly reliant</a> on those at the end of their working lives to support and mentor people entering the labour market, to maintain the tax base, and to support themselves as they prepare for retirement. </p>
<p>Here, the news is a bit more positive, though not completely so. It is true that the employment-to-population ratio has increased for 60-64 year olds (from 50.3% in 2011 to 53.8% in 2016). However, the unemployment rate for this group has also gone up (from 4.1% to 5.8%). </p>
<p>More people are working, but more people are actively looking for work. On balance, this is probably positive, but we also need to make sure that we are minimising the incidence and effects of <a href="https://nationalseniors.com.au/be-informed/research/publications/age-discrimination-labour-market">age-related discrimination</a>.</p>
<p>Delving into the employment statistics in the 2016 Census tells a more nuanced story than is evident from the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">monthly Labour Force Survey</a>. In particular, remote Indigenous employment and outcomes for single parents show deeply concerning trends. Policy measures may need urgent consideration to increase employment opportunities and ameliorate poverty among these population groups.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>**Correction and Editor’s note: This article was updated on 25 October to correct the first chart on Indigenous employment outcomes. The chart had previously misstated the figures on those employed, unemployed and the total labour force. The Conversation apologises for these editing errors and thanks reader John Blake for alerting us to them.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86137/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Biddle's research centres receive funding from the Commonwealth Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet and the Commonwealth Department of Social Services. He has previously been funded by Aboriginal Affairs NSW. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francis Markham's research centre receives funding from the Commonwealth Department of Prime Minister. </span></em></p>Looking past the headline Census figures, we see divergences between rural and urban Indigenous populations, and the young and old.Nicholas Biddle, Associate Professor, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityFrancis Markham, Research Fellow, College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/817422017-08-23T00:15:48Z2017-08-23T00:15:48ZAustralian census data show collapse in citizenship uptake by New Zealanders<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182721/original/file-20170821-27175-aejhoe.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This image of a personalised number plate was taken at a Waitangi Day celebration in Brisbane.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Hamer</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The latest <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/2024.0">Australian census data</a> provide further confirmation that a controversial 2001 law change affecting New Zealanders living in Australia has led to a collapse in the number of Kiwis who become Australian citizens.</p>
<p>Of the 146,000 New Zealand-born migrants who arrived in Australia between 2002 and 2011, only 8.4% had acquired Australian citizenship by 2016. As a subset of this, New Zealand-born Māori are particularly disadvantaged, with a take-up rate of just under 3%.</p>
<h2>Moving the goalposts</h2>
<p>There is a longstanding tradition of free movement of people between Australia and New Zealand. It was confirmed in the <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/original/00002785.pdf">Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangement</a> of 1973, which marked Australia’s lifting of <a href="https://natlib.govt.nz/blog/posts/unsophisticated-and-unsuited">racial restrictions</a> on non-white or non-Māori New Zealand migrants.</p>
<p>Each country applies its own rules to the entitlements of citizens from the other country. Australians moving to New Zealand acquire the full rights of residents in New Zealand after reasonably short waiting periods (one year before voting, two years before getting social security) and can apply directly for citizenship.</p>
<p>However, since a legal change was introduced by Australia in 2001, New Zealanders moving across the Tasman are denied a pathway to citizenship, unless they can acquire a skills-based permanent visa.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wheres-the-choice-bro-kiwis-in-australia-get-a-raw-deal-18545">Where's the choice, bro: Kiwis in Australia get a raw deal</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>They may be living in Australia permanently, but their visa is regarded as temporary. It is dependent on the maintenance of New Zealand citizenship and expires whenever they leave the country.</p>
<h2>NZ versus other nationalities</h2>
<p>This stands in contrast to other settlers in Australia, for whom the acquisition of a permanent visa usually becomes a stepping stone for entry to the country. </p>
<p>The cumulative impact of this exclusion of New Zealanders becomes clear in the 2016 Australian census results. The following graph indicates the take-up of citizenship after the qualification period of four years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182723/original/file-20170821-27201-tef97z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182723/original/file-20170821-27201-tef97z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182723/original/file-20170821-27201-tef97z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182723/original/file-20170821-27201-tef97z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182723/original/file-20170821-27201-tef97z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182723/original/file-20170821-27201-tef97z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182723/original/file-20170821-27201-tef97z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Hamer</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We can see that, over time, almost all settlers from third countries become Australian citizens. Those born overseas (excluding New Zealand) who arrived between 1985 and 2000 have take-up rates of citizenship of 80% to 90%.</p>
<p>New Zealanders have always had a much lower take-up rate because citizenship had little bearing on their rights before the 2001 legal change. Of the New Zealand-born people arriving in Australia between 1985 and 2000, only 40% to 50% have taken up citizenship - roughly half the rate of those born in other countries.</p>
<p>But since 2001, the access of New Zealanders to Australian citizenship has almost collapsed. This is especially so for New Zealand-born Māori, who are less likely to be able to meet the skills requirements or the cost of a permanent visa. </p>
<p>If we take the year of arrival of 2008 as an example, we can see that 55.5% of those born in third countries are Australian citizens. However, only 6.8% of all New Zealand-born migrants who arrived that year are citizens, including only 2.5% of Māori.</p>
<h2>Contrast with a decade ago</h2>
<p>To make sure that this drop off among recent migrants is not a particular feature of New Zealanders’ take-up of citizenship in Australia, we compared the 2016 census results with those of 2006.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182724/original/file-20170821-27181-1he4whg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182724/original/file-20170821-27181-1he4whg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182724/original/file-20170821-27181-1he4whg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182724/original/file-20170821-27181-1he4whg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182724/original/file-20170821-27181-1he4whg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182724/original/file-20170821-27181-1he4whg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182724/original/file-20170821-27181-1he4whg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Hamer</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We can see that, in 2006, there was a much more gradual decline in the take-up rate of Australian citizenship by New Zealanders among more recent arrivals. There was no sharp dog leg in the line as in 2016.</p>
<p>This confirms that the 2001 law change has caused the take-up rate of citizenship by New Zealand migrants to drop dramatically.</p>
<p>In 2001, the Australian government considered that about 40% of New Zealand settlers would qualify for a permanent visa, and thus be able to go on to acquire citizenship. </p>
<p>The reality is, however, that far fewer have applied. The census data show that more than 220,000 New Zealand-born migrants have arrived in Australia since 2002, following the law change. However, according to Department of Social Services data, only 14,500 permanent visas have been granted to this group over the same period.</p>
<p>Many are likely deterred by the expense and uncertainty of the process. A base application fee is A$3,670 for an individual and, with associated costs, it would set a family of four back more than A$10,000.</p>
<h2>A new pathway</h2>
<p>From July 1 this year, New Zealanders who arrived between February 2001 and February 2016 became eligible for a <a href="https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/189-new-zealand-stream">new permanent visa</a>, this time dependent not on Australia’s skills requirements but on having earned above the temporary skilled migration income threshold of A$53,900 for five successive years.</p>
<p>This provides the opportunity for many thwarted by the skills test to acquire a permanent visa. But the same steep fees apply and, once again, the Australian government’s assessment was that no more than half of the 140,000 New Zealanders who had been in Australia for at least five years would be eligible.</p>
<p>The introduction of this visa will not help those most in need of government help, and it remains doubtful whether it will significantly change New Zealanders’ take-up rate of Australian citizenship. In the first month, the number of <a href="http://fasmob.com/one-news/new-zealand/kiwi-uptake-new-aussie-visa-slow-under-1000-applying-in-first-month">applications was lower than expected</a>.</p>
<p>Critics of the government’s currently proposed amendments to citizenship law argue that they are unjustified and will do little for social cohesion. Peter Hughes, a former senior official in the Department of Immigration, <a href="https://johnmenadue.com/peter-hughes-citizenship-changes-poisonous-and-pointless/">described</a> them as</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… turning the whole inclusive idea of Australian citizenship since 1949 on its head.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It is timely to remember that the single biggest exclusion of Australian citizenship since 1949 arguably occurred in 2001, and that New Zealanders in Australia continue to live with its consequences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Markus has received grants to research Australian public opinion from the Scanlon Foundation, the Australian Research Council and the Australian government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Hamer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest census data confirm it’s become more difficult for New Zealanders living in Australia to become citizens.Paul Hamer, Research Associate, Te Kawa a Māui - Māori Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonAndrew Markus, Pratt Foundation Research Chair of Jewish Civilisation, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/804562017-08-20T19:23:08Z2017-08-20T19:23:08ZAs Australia becomes less religious, our parliament becomes more so<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177259/original/file-20170707-6246-1j8peh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Christianity’s effect on Australian politics is far from waning.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jonathan James</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In a nation that is increasingly secular, religion still plays a vital role in the way we run our country. In <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/religion-and-politics-in-australia-42068">this series</a>, we examine the role of religion in Australian politics and education.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Even though the 2016 Census <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EReligion%20Data%20Summary%7E25">revealed</a> that more than 30% of the Australian population identify as having “no religion” – a label that overtook the Catholic faith figure – Christianity’s effect on Australian politics is far from waning.</p>
<p>Surprisingly, Christians currently number more than 40% of the Coalition government and about 30% of the Labor opposition. This is high for a nation labelled “<a href="https://www.humanrights.gov.au/news/opinions/are-we-really-secular-nation-we-think-we-are-2009">secular</a>”.</p>
<h2>Phases of Christianity in party politics</h2>
<p>A snapshot of the relationship between Christianity and Australian politics reveals three phases: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>the sectarian phase (when Labor was primarily Catholic and Liberals were Protestant); </p></li>
<li><p>the Catholic migration into the Liberal Party phase; and </p></li>
<li><p>the strong Christian personality phase – where politicians from both parties came out to wear their faith on their sleeves. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Traditionally, Labor and Liberal politicians were staunchly divided as Catholic and Protestant respectively. Catholics in Australia, primarily from the working class (and of Irish descent), were attracted to the Labor Party. Liberals came from the non-working class and were mainly of Anglican and Presbyterian backgrounds. </p>
<p>During the first world war, Catholics in Labor took their anti-conscription view to new levels. <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/mannix-daniel-7478">Catholic Archbishop Daniel Mannix</a> framed Labor’s anti-military draft stance in terms of the Protestant–Catholic divide, reinforcing the sectarianism of the two parties.</p>
<p>In the years that followed, Catholics continued to vote mainly for Labor. But with changing socioeconomic patterns, many Catholics moved into the middle class and were more inclined to vote Liberal. The Labor Party split in 1955, when its anti-communist faction broke away to give birth to the Democratic Labor Party (DLP). </p>
<p>This was the start of a new development in the political landscape of the nation. When the DLP lost momentum Catholic Labor politicians soon started migrating to the Liberal Party, ushering in the second phase of politics and faith. Together with “<a href="http://insidestory.org.au/howards-victories-which-voters-switched-which-issues-mattered-and-why">Howard’s battlers</a>”, Catholic politicians successfully kept the Coalition in power from 1996 through to 2007. </p>
<p>Throughout John Howard’s leadership, the Coalition gained votes from regular church-goers of both Catholic and Protestant persuasions, ostensibly bringing sectarianism to an end. Howard’s Coalition also made overtures to the newer non-denominational churches. </p>
<p>More recently, Australian politics and religion has entered another phase with those willing to boldly posture their faith in the public sphere. </p>
<p>Unlike Menzies, John Howard and Paul Keating, who though religious kept their faith quiet, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/rudds-religion-strikes-a-chord/news-story/8779df89e0ba4a69f829138b5fc30a9a">Kevin Rudd</a>, <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/federal/2017/04/18/christianity-needs-to-be-respected--abbott.html">Tony Abbott</a> and former Liberal senator <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-06/cory-bernardi-profile-who-is-he-and-where-does-he-stand/8244040">Cory Bernardi</a> moved Christian values from the periphery to the centre when they declared their strong convictions on faith and policy.</p>
<h2>Negotiating Christian values</h2>
<p>While religion and politics operate quite differently in the US to Australia, the high numbers of Christians in Australian parties are sometimes under-reported. </p>
<p>Arguably, the large proportion of Christians in the main parties enables Christian politicians to negotiate their religious values in four main ways:</p>
<p><strong>1. A strong parliamentary Christian fellowship</strong></p>
<p>When federal parliament is in session, the <a href="https://nationalprayerbreakfast.org/tag/parliamentary-christian-fellowship/">Parliamentary Christian Fellowship</a> meets fortnightly, with about 60 members from all sides of politics in attendance. This is more than a quarter of total parliamentary members. </p>
<p>Not all Christians in parliament choose to attend the fellowship. Anecdotal evidence suggests that guest speakers, prayer and Bible studies with focused discussions are regular features of these meetings.</p>
<p><strong>2. Faith-based delivery of social and community services</strong></p>
<p>The government has outsourced approximately <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/religionandethicsreport/church-welfare-groups-and-the-hazards-of-state-money/4231006">two-thirds of community services to faith-based agencies</a> at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. </p>
<p>Typically, these services focus on youth, aged care, family support, homeless programs and mental health. </p>
<p><strong>3. Selective faith keeping</strong></p>
<p>Christian politicians are typically circumspect and only “walk the talk” on vital matters. They have their own hierarchy on faith values.</p>
<p>Liberal senator <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/monographs/maddox/maddoxmonograph.pdf">Eric Abetz’s comments</a>, while here a criticism of the church, reflect the fact that Christian politicians such as Abetz pick and choose values for their own ends:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… The church has an important role in general terms to say what is the measure of a fair tax system, or the measure of a fair Native Title regime; but to say, ‘a tax on food is immoral’ is bordering on being immoral itself.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>4. Invoking the conscience vote on controversial moral issues</strong></p>
<p>The use of conscience votes demonstrates the high place given to religious convictions and sensibilities. </p>
<p>Conscience votes cut across party lines (although Liberals invoke these far more than Labor) and give ample room for moral interpretations of matters such as euthanasia, abortion and marriage equality.</p>
<p>The “secularisation” of Australia seems to be counterbalanced by a strong, Christian political foundation. Arguably, politicians are generally motivated by pragmatism, however, faith’s place in Australian politics invites further investigation. </p>
<p>As Australia becomes less religious, paradoxically, Christianity seems to be flourishing in both the Coalition government and the Labor Party. Thus, politicians are influencing the nation in particularly interesting ways.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read other articles in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/religion-and-politics-in-australia-42068">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80456/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan D James is affiliated with AEF International; the media, culture & society research group in CREATEC at Edith Cowan University, and Sheridan College.</span></em></p>In a nation labelled secular, many of our elected representatives have strong religious ties, and this affects they way they the country is run.Jonathan D James, Adjunct Lecturer, School of Arts and Humanities, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/816182017-08-02T03:04:49Z2017-08-02T03:04:49ZHere’s why it’s so hard to say whether inequality is going up or down<p>Is inequality rising or falling? The answer, if <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/889630893383536640">recent</a> public <a href="https://twitter.com/ALeighMP/status/890084445159665667">debate</a> is anything to go by, may appear at first to depend on who you ask. </p>
<p>Part of the reason why we get such conflicting narratives about whether economic inequality is rising or falling is that it can be measured in different ways, using different data sets. </p>
<iframe width="100%" height="100%" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7eDYynM5RMA?ecver=1" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""> </iframe>
<p>And you might get a different answer depending on whether you’re talking about <em>income</em> inequality or <em>wealth</em> inequality. Income is the flow of economic resources over a certain period, while wealth is the stock of resources built up over time.</p>
<p>We can draw some insights from the newly released <a href="http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda/publications/hilda-statistical-reports">Household Incomes and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) 2017 report</a>, which reveals the latest results of a longitudinal study that has been running since 2001. </p>
<p>But it doesn’t show the whole story. Combining HILDA’s results with data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6523.0">income surveys</a> gives a more comprehensive picture of trends in economic inequality in Australia.</p>
<h2>HILDA data show lower income inequality than the ABS</h2>
<p>Firstly, you need to know that when we are talking about income, most people are referring to the disposable income of the <em>household</em>, not individuals.</p>
<p>That’s all the income that members of a household receive from various sources, minus tax. You can then then adjust for the number of people in the household, accounting for the differing needs of adults and children, to get what economists call “equivalised household disposable income”.</p>
<p>The HILDA Survey, funded by the Department of Social Services and conducted by the Melbourne Institute, has followed some 17,000 individuals every year since 2001. (The most recent <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6523.0">ABS income survey</a> final sample consists of 14,162 households, comprising 27,339 persons aged 15 years old and over.)</p>
<p>One commonly used way to measure inequality is called the Gini coefficient, which varies between zero (where all households have exactly the same income) and one (where only one household has all the income). The Gini coefficient for equivalised household disposable income varies between about 0.244 in Iceland to 0.397 in the United States (with most other high-income OECD countries falling between these two levels), but is as high as 0.46 in Mexico and 0.57 in South Africa. </p>
<p>The latest HILDA report puts Australia’s Gini coefficient at 0.296 and notes that it has “remained at approximately 0.3 over the entire 15 years of the HILDA Survey”.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qY3ag/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="600"></iframe>
<p>The HILDA surveys show a lower level of income inequality than the ABS figures do. Some of the differences between these estimates will reflect the broader definition of income used by the ABS, and the significant changes in this definition over time. </p>
<p>In a sense, the HILDA longitudinal survey is like a video where the same people are interviewed every year, whereas the ABS surveys are like a snapshot of the Australian population taken every two years.</p>
<p>But there are also problems with longitudinal surveys because participants often drop out of the survey over time. Also the survey is based on people who were living in Australia in 2001, thus leaving out immigrants who have arrived since then. While the survey has refreshed the sample in 2011 to address this problem, this attrition may reduce the representativeness of the sample. In addition, the sample size of the ABS surveys is about 50% greater than HILDA, which will reduce sampling errors.</p>
<h2>ABS data show inequality has risen</h2>
<p>The ABS has conducted <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6523.0">income surveys</a> since the late 1960s, although it is only surveys since 1982 that are comprehensive and available for public analysis. These ABS surveys are also used in most of the international data sources that compare income inequality across countries – <a href="http://www.oecd.org/social/income-distribution-database.htm">the OECD Income Distribution database</a> and the <a href="http://www.lisdatacenter.org/">Luxembourg Income Survey</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6523.0">ABS data</a> show a clear increase in both wealth and income inequality over the mid- to long run.</p>
<p>The chart below shows two long series of estimates from the ABS surveys – those published in 2006 by researchers David Johnson and Roger Wilkins (who now oversees the HILDA Survey) from 1981-82 to 1996-97, and official figures prepared by the ABS, from 1994-95 to 2013-14.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4DJDK/6/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="567"></iframe>
<p>Despite the differences in income measures and equivalence scales, the long-run trend from the ABS figures is clear.</p>
<p>There are periods in which inequality fell, but overall inequality rose over the whole period - including in the most recent period to 2013-14. The Gini coefficient in 2013-14 is a little lower than its peak just before the Global Financial Crisis, but the difference is not large.</p>
<p>True, the ABS’s survey methodology has changed over the years but these changes should not have an effect after 2007-08, as income definitions haven’t changed in a major way since then.</p>
<h2>Wealth is much more unequally distributed than income</h2>
<p>The ABS also publishes information on the distribution of net worth - that’s household assets minus liabilities. Wealth is much more unequally distributed than income. </p>
<p>According to the ABS, the Gini coefficient for net worth in 2013-14 was 0.605 (compared to a Gini coefficient for income of 0.333). This is a clear increase from a Gini of 0.573 in 2003-04.</p>
<p>Put another way, ABS data show a high-income household in the richest 20% of the income distribution has an income around 5.4 times as much as the average household in the bottom 20% of the income distribution, as this chart demonstrates:</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rLPBb/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="540"></iframe>
<p>In contrast, ABS data show that households in the richest 20% of the distribution of net worth have average wealth of around $2.5 million, or more than 70 times higher than the average net worth held by households in the bottom 20% of the wealth distribution, as this chart demonstrates:</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lVOxB/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="550"></iframe>
<p>Somewhat surprisingly, however, the <a href="https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/research/research-institute/global-wealth-report.html">Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report</a> puts wealth inequality in Australia at below the world average (and the mean and median levels of net worth at among the highest in the world).</p>
<p>This largely reflects the still high level of home ownership in Australia and the high levels of wealth in home ownership, which accounts for nearly half of total net worth on average.</p>
<h2>Reconciling conflicting trends</h2>
<p>While these two major sources of data show conflicting trends on income inequality, the ABS sample size is much greater. Ultimately, however, the reasons for the differences between the findings of the ABS and the HILDA survey are not obvious. </p>
<p>One way forward would be for the ABS and the Melbourne Institute to jointly analyse the differences between their findings to identify why their estimates of inequality diverge. </p>
<hr>
<p>This piece is <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/hilda-2017-41279">part of a series</a> on the recent release of HILDA Survey data.</p>
<p>Read more:</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/men-still-prefer-mothers-to-stay-at-home-12-charts-on-attitudes-to-work-and-family-81897"><em>Men still prefer mothers to stay at home: 12 charts on attitudes to work and family</em></a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/australians-want-more-children-than-they-have-so-are-we-in-the-midst-of-a-demographic-crisis-81547"><em>Australians want more children than they have, so are we in the midst of a demographic crisis?</em></a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/pokies-sport-and-racing-harm-41-of-monthly-gamblers-hilda-81486"><em>Pokies, sport and racing harm 41% of monthly gamblers: survey</em></a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/home-ownership-falling-debts-rising-its-looking-grim-for-the-under-40s-81619"><em>Home ownership falling, debts rising – it’s looking grim for the under 40s</em></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81618/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Whiteford has received funding from the Australian Research Council and from the European Commission for work on inequality. He is affiliated with the Centre for Policy Development.</span></em></p>The two major sources of data show conflicting trends on income inequality.Peter Whiteford, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/811832017-07-24T05:57:39Z2017-07-24T05:57:39ZFactCheck Q&A: the facts on birth rates for Muslim couples and non-Muslim couples in Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178787/original/file-20170719-13554-jbuh98.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Journalist Mehdi Hasan responds to a question from a Q&A audience member. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Q&A</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>The Conversation fact-checks claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9.35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> using hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a> or by <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>.</strong></p>
<hr>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RFzCCxQLvZs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, June 17, 2017.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<blockquote>
<p>In view of the fact that in Australia Muslim couples have on average 4.5 children per couple, whereas the rest of us have 1.5 children per couple on average, is it not possible that in a couple of generations Australia could have a Muslim majority who vote in Sharia law? <strong>– Question submitted to Q&A by an audience member, posted on the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/abcqanda/videos/10154515052566831/">Q&A Facebook page</a>, July 17, 2017.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Central to the success of the current affairs television show Q&A are the questions submitted by audience members and viewers to be answered by the panellists of the week.</p>
<p>During last week’s live show, audience member Roger French said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… in view of the fact that, in Australia, Muslim couples have a much higher birth rate than the rest of us, is it not possible that, in a couple of generations, Australia could have a Muslim majority who vote in Sharia law?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The original question French submitted to Q&A said Muslim couples in Australia have “on average 4.5 children per couple, whereas the rest of us have 1.5 children per couple on average”. Q&A’s producers did their own fact-checking on this question. </p>
<p>Q&A Executive Producer Peter McEvoy told The Conversation:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We want people to ask questions that reflect their own opinions and concerns but sometimes we go back to the questioners to ask them to shorten or simplify their question, or to check a factual assertion.</p>
<p>When the producers spoke to the audience member shortly before the program, he wasn’t able to provide a source for the statistics and so agreed to drop them. When he asked the question live Mr French didn’t include the statistics but maintained the general assertion about birth rates among Muslim couples and other couples in Australia.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the Q&A social media team wasn’t alerted to that late change, so the wording Mr French submitted in his original questions was used initially in Q&A’s Facebook post.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is understandable in the making of a fast-paced live TV show, and the Q&A Facebook post <a href="https://www.facebook.com/abcqanda/videos/10154515052566831/">was corrected</a>. But the original post had been <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/887111590436196353">shared on social media</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"886934833259200516"}"></div></p>
<p>Let’s look at what the data show about birth rates for Muslim couples and other couples in Australia. </p>
<h2>Do Muslim couples in Australia have an average of 4.5 children per couple?</h2>
<p>There is no evidence to support the claim that Muslim couples in Australia have an average of 4.5 children per couple, or that non-Muslim couples in Australia have an average of 1.5 children per couple.</p>
<p>Census 2016 data show that women of Islamic faith in Australia have an average of 3.03 births per woman, while the average for all women in Australia is 2.02 births per woman.</p>
<p>It is correct to say that Muslim women in Australia currently have a higher birth rate than other women in Australia. It’s not reasonable to say, based on current figures, that Muslims in Australia will outnumber non-Muslims in “a couple”, or even many more, generations. </p>
<h2>Calculating birth rates for couples in Australia</h2>
<p>When we’re talking about how many children a couple have “on average”, we’re talking about <a href="http://www.prb.org/Publications/Lesson-Plans/Glossary.aspx">birth rates</a>. Birth rates are calculated by looking at how many children are born, and how many women there are, in a particular population. Birth rates in Australia relate to women, not couples.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes a number of births indicators, but these data are not reported by religion. Australian Census data give us an opportunity to examine birth rates by religion, with the caveat that reporting your religious affiliation in the Census is optional. In 2016, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/home/Independent+Assurance+Panel/$File/CIAP+Report+on+the+quality+of+2016+Census+data.pdf">96% of people provided a response</a> to the question about religion.</p>
<p>We can estimate birth rates from Census data using information about the number of <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2008.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7ENumber%20of%20children%20ever%20born%7E116">children ever born</a>, which is asked of women aged 15 and over. By looking specifically at the number of children women have given birth to by the age of 45-49, we can see what is called the ‘<a href="http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WFD2012/Metadata/Metadata_CEB.html">completed fertility</a>’ rate. <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3301.02015?OpenDocument">Relatively few</a> births in Australia occur to women 45 years or over.</p>
<p>Prior to the 2016 Census, information collected about the number of children a woman had given birth to did not include stillborn babies; only live births. In Census 2016, the instruction to include live births only <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2900.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7ETISP%20Number%20of%20Children%20Ever%20Born%7E10085">was removed</a>. Despite this change, the data appear to follow a <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/home/Independent+Assurance+Panel/$File/CIAP+Report+on+the+quality+of+2016+Census+data.pdf">similar trend</a> as previous data.</p>
<p>Let’s look at what the data show about the number of children born to women who were aged 45-49 at the time of the 2016 Census. </p>
<p>Analysis of “children ever born” information shows an average of 2.02 births for all women aged 45-49 in Australia. Women in Australia of Islamic faith aged 45-49 had, on average, 3.03 births per woman. Women of Jewish faith of the same age had on average 2.17 births per woman, while women of any Christian faith of the same age had on average 2.11 births per woman.</p>
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<p>Internationally and in Australia, a commonly used measure for birth rates is the <a href="http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/methodology_sheets/demographics/total_fertility_rate.pdf">total fertility rate</a>. Total fertility rates are calculated using information about the number of births registered by women of different age groups in a particular period (for example, in 2015). Birth registrations are used to estimate the number of children a woman would have on average over her lifetime if those age-specific trends persisted.</p>
<p>Australian Bureau of Statistics data show that the total fertility rate for Australia in 2015 was <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3301.0Main%20Features42015?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3301.0&issue=2015&num=&view=">1.81 babies per woman</a>. That’s below the population replacement level, which requires around 2.1 babies per woman to replace herself and her partner. </p>
<p>Women in Australia who were 45-49 years old at the time of the Census and of Islamic, Christian and Jewish faiths are among the only groups examined which have at or above replacement level birth rates.</p>
<p>The difference between the Census figure (2.02 births per woman) and the ABS figure (1.81 births per woman) is that the Census figure relates to 'completed fertility’ of women now aged 45-49, while the ABS figures look at fertility rates based on current trends.</p>
<h2>Possible growth of the Australian Muslim population</h2>
<p>Is it possible that, due to relatively higher birth rates, “in a couple of generations Australia could have a Muslim majority”? We can address this question by looking at the proportion of the Australian population reporting Islamic faith.</p>
<p>In Census 2016, fewer than 3% of all Australians reported being of Islamic faith. By comparison, more than 50% of Australians reported being one form of Christian faith. 30% of Australians said they had no religion.</p>
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<p>Based on current birth rates (3.03 children per woman) and the size of the Muslim population (604,200 people, or 2.6% of total population) people of Islamic faith in Australia will not outnumber those of non-Islamic faith in “a couple of generations” – or even many more generations.</p>
<p>It’s also important to remember that children will not necessarily take on the religious beliefs of their parents, particularly in the long term.</p>
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<h2>Other studies</h2>
<p>In April 2017 the Pew Research Center <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316861337_The_Changing_Global_Religious_Landscape">published a study</a> on global religious affiliation trends that received <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/world/muslim-christian-babies-pew-report.html">international</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/05/muslim-population-overtake-christian-birthrate-20-years">media</a> <a href="http://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2017/april/pew-muslim-christian-birth-rates-2035-2060-demographics.html">coverage</a>. The report’s authors projected that, worldwide, “the number of babies born to Muslims is expected to modestly exceed births to Christians” by the year 2035.</p>
<p>The Pew Research Center data are based on assumptions about future demographic trends, and how many people will switch religions in the future. The report suggests that between 2015 and 2020, around 8.2 million people will leave Christian churches, while 420,000 people will join the Islamic faith. </p>
<p>The report does not include country level information, but it does estimate that by 2060, the percentage of Muslims living in the Asia-Pacific region (which includes Australia) is expected to decline from 61% to 50%. </p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>There is no evidence to support the claim that Muslim couples in Australia have on average 4.5 births per couple, or that non-Muslim couples in Australia have on average 1.5 births per couple.</p>
<p>Based on Census 2016 data, Australian women of Islamic faith have, on average, 3.03 births per woman, while the average for all women in Australia is 2.02 births per woman.</p>
<p>There is also no evidence to suggest that the number of people in Australia of Islamic faith will outnumber those of non-Islamic faith in “a couple”, or even many more, generations. People in Australia reporting Islamic religious affiliation are a minority, despite relatively higher birth rates. <strong>– Liz Allen</strong></p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>This is a sound FactCheck. The average numbers of children ever born for women aged 45-49 for the various categories of religion presented by the author are correct.</p>
<p>In view of the lack of published data on the fertility of religious groups based on birth registrations, the Census is the appropriate data source to use.</p>
<p>I agree with the author’s conclusion (and Q&A panellist Mehdi Hasan’s point) that, while the available evidence shows that, in Australia, Muslim women have a higher birth rate than non-Muslim women, it is extremely unlikely that Muslims will outnumber non-Muslims in Australia in one or two generations’ time. </p>
<p>I would further add that people of Islamic faith represent small minorities of the most recent inclusions in Australia’s population, both by birth and migration. </p>
<p>In the 2016 Census, 4.32% of children aged 0-4 years who had been born in Australia were recorded as being of Islamic faith. This figure reflects recent birth patterns and the identification of young children’s religion by parents.</p>
<p>The Census data also show that women of Islamic faith who were born in Australia have on average smaller numbers of children (2.67 per woman) than first generation migrant women aged 45-49 of Islamic faith.</p>
<p>In terms of migration, Census data show 10.53% of people who arrived in Australia between 2012 and the 2016 Census date were of Islamic faith.</p>
<p>The Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures Project projects that Muslims will form <a href="http://www.globalreligiousfutures.org/countries/australia#/?affiliations_religion_id=0&affiliations_year=2050&region_name=All%20Countries&restrictions_year=2014">4.9%</a> of Australia’s population in 2050. <strong>– Nick Parr</strong></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
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<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit is the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Parr has received funding from Catholic Education Commission NSW </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liz Allen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Do Muslim couples in Australia have ‘on average 4.5 children’ while other couples have ‘1.5 children’? Could Australia have a ‘Muslim majority’ in ‘a couple’ of generations? Let’s check the evidence.Liz Allen, Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/807422017-07-16T20:04:22Z2017-07-16T20:04:22ZTaxing empty homes: a step towards affordable housing, but much more can be done<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177992/original/file-20170713-9462-1n2hcla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vacant and unlit 'ghost' apartments are a source of public outrage in major cities around the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/leniners/4954648714/in/photolist-8xPSrQ-8Hk8gf-gnGoVD-gpaC2C-9qUkq4-5iBTHG-jSCfAF-bk4jYN-a2A4rY-8Mgbra-Nv9BK-abZYbG-6x2sqK-8cMY8y-b6p5F2-gnGycq-7h3Pi5-a2A5kG-BNb5y7-4wyd9p-8Mkydu-4Xm9Mz-8HgYNg-gBybkD-8Vu1Qj-8Mh8PP-3Joxne-8MjC3L-dXfvjw-7NQu83-7gYRaT-7NQqH5-5HMXdr-8Hk6fo-8hMmWW-CKkpTr-DgvZv3-DbxWAX-DiQfs8-DgvXry-rWHdWJ-CKkoBD-CKkraK-D9ZuRF-sc1Bgy-BX1N5w-GJFc3-LDsSSE-mGmXrX-mGoStf">leniners/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Vacant housing rates <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-27/home-ownership-rates-continue-to-plunge-census/8654534">are rising</a> in our major cities. Across Australia on census night, <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/three-unique-housing-insights-from-the-2016-census">11.2% of housing</a> was recorded as unoccupied – a total of 1,089,165 dwellings. With housing <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/policy/ahuri-briefs/2016/3040-indicator">affordability stress</a> also <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-27/home-ownership-rates-continue-to-plunge-census/8654534">intensifying</a>, the moment for a push on empty property taxes looks to have arrived. </p>
<p>The 2016 Census showed empty property numbers up by 19% in Melbourne and 15% in Sydney over the past five years alone. Considering that thousands of people sleep rough – almost 7,000 <a href="http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/2049.0Main%20Features22011">on census night in 2011</a>, more than 400 per night <a href="http://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/community/community-support/homelessness/street-count">in Sydney in 2017</a> – and that hundreds of thousands face <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/2049.0Feature%20Article12011">overcrowded homes</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-pictures-of-rental-housing-stress-and-vulnerability-zero-in-on-areas-of-need-77714">unaffordable rents</a>, these seem like cruel and immoral revelations.</p>
<p>Public awareness of unused homes has been growing in Australia and <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/2015/04/24/hidden-costs-ghost-apartments-322264.html">globally</a>. In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/25/its-like-a-ghost-town-lights-go-out-as-foreign-owners-desert-london-homes">London</a>, <a href="https://thetyee.ca/News/2016/03/08/Vancouver-Empty-Condos/">Vancouver</a> and elsewhere – just as in <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/03/01/fears-new-homes-being-left-empty-housing-prices-soar">Sydney</a> and <a href="https://www.prosper.org.au/2015/12/09/almost-20pc-of-melbournes-investor-owned-homes-empty/">Melbourne</a> – the night-time spectacle of dark spaces in newly built “luxury towers” has triggered outrage.</p>
<p>This has struck a chord with the public not only because of its connotations of obscene wealth inequality and waste, but also because of the <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/scott-morrison-targets-foreign-investors-who-keep-properties-vacant-20170409-gvhgju">contended link to foreign ownership</a>.</p>
<h2>Early movers on vacancy tax</h2>
<p>Against this backdrop, the Victorian state government has felt <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/06/victoria-to-tax-investors-who-leave-properties-vacant-for-more-than-six-months">sufficiently emboldened</a> to <a href="http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_Notes/LDMS/PubPDocs.nsf/ee665e366dcb6cb0ca256da400837f6b/444d40b3758ade25ca2581130075383a!OpenDocument">legislate</a> an empty homes tax. Federally, the shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-hits-foreigners-vacant-properties-and-super-funds-in-housing-affordability-package-20170420-gvolrj.html">recently backed</a> a standard vacant dwelling tax across all the nation’s major cities. </p>
<p>Similar measures have come into force in <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/number-of-empty-homes-in-vancouver-hits-record-high-1.4175999">Vancouver</a> and <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/britons-property-paris-hit-new-tax-hike/">Paris</a>. And Ontario’s provincial government <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/wynne-housing-market-1.4077094">recently granted</a> Toronto new powers to tax empty properties
.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177995/original/file-20170713-12241-ybvqah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177995/original/file-20170713-12241-ybvqah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177995/original/file-20170713-12241-ybvqah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177995/original/file-20170713-12241-ybvqah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177995/original/file-20170713-12241-ybvqah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177995/original/file-20170713-12241-ybvqah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177995/original/file-20170713-12241-ybvqah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177995/original/file-20170713-12241-ybvqah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Both Vancouver (above) and Melbourne now have a 1% capital value charge on homes left vacant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tim_welbourn/22455459392/in/photolist-Adj6JY-CXpZJA-CytEqn-PZ1ZzA-F6psUP-tHSu6a-QfKWbM-PS7GcE-QG7hfQ-MFKS1d-oP93bh-jTUeF7-VjaqxR-pd3pxQ-q4YhMv-nfFjeY-nfFeNU-nhJ62Z-nfF9rS-n3vWgm-o3gd6o-RVnQWb-n3ubEX-n3w7xU-n3uq8B-nfFjnT-n3upv4-n3usNM-nfFfa4-n3vXeU-n3uh5V-qFPs5t-n3uuFp-n3utFP-pj2YSZ-n3uwRt-n3uwca-qi7TCa-nquxBY-n3uxb4-FqSWC3-n3w5MQ-oMWgFi-q57iW5-n3ukg2-q7FYuX-n3ujvK-n3w2yq-n3w1LU-n3uk38">Tim Welbourn/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<p>Emulating Vancouver, <a href="http://www.sro.vic.gov.au/news/new-measures-vacant-property-melbourne">Victoria’s tax</a> is a 1% capital value charge on homes vacant for at least six months in a year. Curiously, though, it applies only in Melbourne’s inner and middle suburbs. And there are exceptions – if the property is a grossly under-used second home you pay only if you’re a foreigner. </p>
<p>Also, as in Vancouver, tax liability relies on self-reporting, which is seemingly a loophole. This might be less problematic if all owners were required to confirm their properties were occupied for at least six months of the past year. But that would be administratively cumbersome. </p>
<p>This highlights a broader “practicability challenge” for empty property taxes. For example, how do you define acceptable reasons for a property being empty? </p>
<p>In principle, such a tax should probably be limited to habitable dwellings. So, if you own a speculative vacancy, what do you do? Remove the kitchen sink to declare it unliveable?</p>
<h2>How can we be sure a home is empty?</h2>
<p>Lack of reliable data on empty homes is a major problem in Australia. Census figures are useful mainly because they indicate trends over time, but they substantially overstate the true number of long-term vacant habitable properties because they include temporarily empty dwellings (including second homes). </p>
<p>Using Victorian water records, <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/empty-homes-the-economic-reasons-behind-investors-keeping-properties-vacant-20170404-gvdc7l/">Prosper Australia estimates</a> about half of Melbourne’s census-recorded vacant properties are long-term “speculative vacancies”. That’s 82,000 homes. </p>
<p>Applying a similar “conversion factor” to Sydney’s census numbers would indicate around 68,000 speculative vacancies. Australia-wide, the Prosper Australia findings imply around 300,000 speculative vacancies – 3% of all housing. That’s equivalent to two years’ house building at current rates.</p>
<p>According to University of Queensland real estate economics expert Cameron Murray, a national tax that entirely eliminated this glut might <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/empty-homes-the-economic-reasons-behind-investors-keeping-properties-vacant-20170404-gvdc7l/">moderate the price of housing by 1-2%</a>. Therefore, although worthwhile, dealing with this element of our inefficient use of land and property would provide only a small easing of Australia’s broader affordability problem.</p>
<h2>Making better use of a scarce resource</h2>
<p>Taxing long-term empty properties is consistent with making more efficient use of our housing stock – a scarce resource. A big-picture implication is that tackling Australia’s housing stress shouldn’t be seen as purely about boosting new housing supply – <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-youre-serious-about-affordable-sydney-housing-premier-heres-a-must-do-list-71791">as commonly portrayed by governments</a>. </p>
<p>It should also be about making more efficient and equitable use of existing housing and housing-designated land.</p>
<p>Penalising empty dwellings is fine if it can be practicably achieved. That’s especially if the revenue is used to enhance the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-to-reboot-affordable-housing-funding-not-scrap-it-72861">trivial amount of public funding</a> going into building affordable rental housing in most of our states and territories. </p>
<p>But empty homes represent just a small element of our increasingly inefficient and wasteful use of housing and the increasingly unequal distribution of our national wealth.</p>
<p>One aspect of this is the under-utilisation of occupied housing. Australian Bureau of Statistics survey data show that, across Australia, more than a million homes (mainly owner-occupied) have <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/4130.02013-14?OpenDocument">three or more spare bedrooms</a>. A comparison of the latest statistics (for 2013-14) with <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/4130.02007-08?OpenDocument">those for 2007-08</a> suggests this body of “grossly under-utilised” properties grew by more than 250,000 in the last six years.</p>
<p>Our tax system does nothing to discourage this increasingly wasteful use of housing. It’s arguably encouraged by the “tax on mobility” constituted by stamp duty and the exemption of the family home <a href="http://theconversation.com/lets-talk-about-the-family-home-and-its-exemption-from-the-pension-means-test-61736">from the pension assets test</a>. </p>
<p>A parallel issue is the speculative land banks owned by developers. The volume of development approvals far exceeds the amount of actual building. In the past year in Sydney, for example, 56,000 development approvals were granted – <a href="http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Research/Housing-Monitor-Reports/Metropolitan-Housing-Monitor-Sydney-Region">but only 38,000 homes were built</a>. </p>
<p>In many cases, getting an approval is just part of land speculation. The owner then hoards the site until “market conditions are right” for on-selling as approved for development at a fat profit.</p>
<p>Properly addressing these issues calls for something much more ambitious than an empty property tax. The federal government should be encouraging all states and territories to follow the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/following-the-act-land-tax-approach-boosts-growth-and-state-budgets/">ACT’s lead</a> by phasing in <a href="http://blogs.unsw.edu.au/cityfutures/blog/2017/03/by-far-and-away-the-biggest-housing-tax-reform-prize-on-offer/">a broad-based land tax</a> to replace stamp duty.</p>
<p>Such a tax will provide a stronger financial incentive to make effective use of land and property. The <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/following-the-act-land-tax-approach-boosts-growth-and-state-budgets/">Grattan Institute estimates</a> this switch would also “add up to A$9 billion annually to gross domestic product”. How much longer can we afford to ignore this obvious policy innovation?</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Acknowledgements: Thanks to Laurence Troy for statistics and Julie Street for background research.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hal Pawson receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI), the Australian Research Council (ARC) and Launch Housing (Melbourne)</span></em></p>A tax on empty homes will make a modest difference to housing affordability. The sheer wastefulness of our housing system calls for something much more ambitious.Hal Pawson, Associate Director - City Futures - Urban Policy and Strategy, City Futures Research Centre, Housing Policy and Practice, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/801432017-06-28T03:56:10Z2017-06-28T03:56:10ZCensus shows increase in children with disability, but even more are still uncounted<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175947/original/file-20170628-15714-77mlkw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some people with disabilities may not require government supports, meaning they wouldn't have been counted as having a disability in the Census. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com.au</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2016 Census has revealed an increase in the number of children with disability, up nearly 40,000 since 2011. One explanation is that the census now counts disability differently, which is more in line with the way many children and families view disability.</p>
<p>But other children continue to miss out on support because they do not name their needs as “disability”. And services don’t yet have adequate funding for even the revealed number of children, so other children who require assistance are left out. </p>
<p>A census that counts people who identify as having a disability, as well as those who need support, could help resolve these problems.</p>
<h2>Defining disability</h2>
<p>Children and young people who need support related to disability has risen from 2% to 2.6% of children - or 38,309 more children than in 2011. The most striking change is boys with disability aged 5-14 years, who have increased to 4.4% of all boys their age. These rates are <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/communityprofile/036?opendocument">even higher for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander</a> children - 7.4% of boys aged 5-14 years and 4.4% of all children and young people aged 0-19 years. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2901.0Chapter702016">census counts disability as</a> “has need for assistance”, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/4a256353001af3ed4b2562bb00121564/ee5261c88952cf90ca257aa10005f567!OpenDocument">which it defines as</a> “profound or severe core activity limitation”. The definition was introduced in the 2006 Census to be <a href="http://www.who.int/classifications/icf/en/">consistent with international measures</a> and <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4430.0">other national surveys</a>, which focus on counting support needs. Before 2006, disability was not counted at all. The continued increase each census since 2006 is probably due to more Australians identifying with the definition or seeing the benefit of identifying as disabled, now that policies to support disability are changing.</p>
<p>Knowing who the definition covers is important. The census count of “need for assistance” is good to inform government planning about high levels of support some people need to participate equally in our communities. Estimating the number of people likely to need a National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) package is a current priority. This census counted 562,629 people aged under 65 years – over 100,000 more than the <a href="https://www.ndis.gov.au/about-us/what-ndis.html">NDIS planning estimates</a>.</p>
<p>Equally important for children is planning access and support in school, playgrounds and other places where children participate in their families and communities. The higher 2016 Census count shows these plans need to expand.</p>
<h2>Who isn’t counted?</h2>
<p>The census question only counts people with high needs, not all people with disability. Unfortunately, the question is not complemented with an identity question about whether you have a disability. This means people with disability who do not need assistance – for example, some people who are blind – are not counted. The <a href="http://www.who.int/disabilities/world_report/2011/en/">World Health Organisation estimates</a> the larger total would be closer to 15% of all Australians, rather than the 5.1% measured in this census.</p>
<p>This gap means another 10% of Australians are not officially counted, yet they too face barriers to participation, <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15017419.2016.1222303">including access and attitudes</a>. </p>
<p>Disability advocates <a href="http://thestringer.com.au/census-fail-makes-disabled-australians-grin-a-bit-12107#.WVHr1YSGO71">consistently express concern</a> that by not asking Australians directly about their disability or impairment, the census fails to count the population of people with disability accurately – it only captures people who need assistance. </p>
<p>Fixing this gap is important for Australia’s obligations to all Australians under the <a href="http://www.un.org/disabilities/documents/convention/convoptprot-e.pdf">United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities</a>. The NDIS relies on better access to social and economic life for all people with disability, including people not eligible for NDIS packages. </p>
<p>Not gathering information about this 10% of our population is a missed opportunity. It means we simply don’t know how many people with disability may benefit from, and contribute to, more accessible communities and new social and economic opportunities. For children, this is critical to having an inclusive community as a foundation. </p>
<h2>Views about disability</h2>
<p>Counting disability is complicated because it’s rarely the way children see themselves. Rather, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/cdj/article-abstract/50/4/724/349042/Building-belonging-and-connection-for-children?redirectedFrom=fulltext">they speak about what supports them</a> to feel a sense of belonging in their local school and community and what helps them build real friendships and relationships. They also talk about the barriers that make belonging difficult, like <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13603116.2012.676081">loneliness, ill-treatment and lack of support</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175981/original/file-20170628-25846-11hb3jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175981/original/file-20170628-25846-11hb3jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175981/original/file-20170628-25846-11hb3jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175981/original/file-20170628-25846-11hb3jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175981/original/file-20170628-25846-11hb3jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175981/original/file-20170628-25846-11hb3jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175981/original/file-20170628-25846-11hb3jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175981/original/file-20170628-25846-11hb3jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children don’t define themselves by their disability, but rather what makes them feel supported and included.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Children and young people with disability are <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027795360800275X?via%3Dihub">often positioned as passive recipients</a> needing assistance through family, friends and services. <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Children-Young-People-and-Care/Horton-Pyer/p/book/9781138920880">Research</a> with children and young people themselves, however, shows they want to be recognised for their active contribution to their families and wider networks. Their positive identity is more important to them than their support needs.</p>
<p>One of the interesting changes since the introduction of the NDIS is that families and service providers are now also using the “need for assistance” definition of disability, which is consistent with the inclusive vision from the UN Convention. Their advocacy with this definition means <a href="https://www.sprc.unsw.edu.au/media/SPRCFile/ECI_Review_Final_Report.pdf">support for young children in Australia</a> has expanded already even though the NDIS is still growing.</p>
<p>Children receiving disability support are now more likely to use it while they are with other children in their community, rather than in separate services. Families’ capacity to demand these inclusive services recognises the rights of their children to <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/disabilities/convention-on-the-rights-of-persons-with-disabilities/article-7-children-with-disabilities.html">get the support they need to enjoy their childhood</a> and have the same options as their peers in the future. These trends are also consistent with the insurance approach of the NDIS: that assistance now is an investment for later.</p>
<h2>Funding and support</h2>
<p>The increase in the numbers of children and young people with disability may reflect families’ optimism about having their children’s needs met in the new NDIS world. It certainly promises to replace long waiting lists and capped places of previous systems. The census numbers reinforce the higher number of children in the NDIS than expected, <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/ndis-costs/position">which is upsetting NDIS estimates</a>. The NDIS has detailed data about people using the scheme. This will not resolve the question about the total number of people with disabilities though. People receiving NDIS packages are those likely to already be those identified in census data as needing support.</p>
<p>Data collection in schools has also recently improved with the introduction of the <a href="http://www.schooldisabilitydatapl.edu.au/data-collection-steps/introduction-to-the-steps">Nationally Consistent Collection of Data</a> for school students with disability. Most children and young people participate in the school system, so these data will inform understanding about adjustments to support students in their education. </p>
<p>Bringing these large data sets together means we can understand the types of supports families need, and where there are service gaps between schools and the NDIS. </p>
<p>Lessons from data need to be discussed alongside the expectations and experiences of children, young people and families to ensure they’re getting the support they need. This will help children enjoy the opportunities of childhood, rather than the current disproportionate but necessary focus on dismantling barriers to belonging.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80143/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen R Fisher receives funding from the Australian Research Council and state and federal governments. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sally Robinson receives research funding from the Australian Research Council and state and federal governments. </span></em></p>The census needs to count people who identify as having a disability, as well as those who require government support.Karen R Fisher, Professor, Social Policy Research Centre, UNSW SydneySally Robinson, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Children and Young People, Southern Cross UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/798362017-06-28T00:43:04Z2017-06-28T00:43:04ZCensus 2016: what’s changed for Indigenous Australians?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175768/original/file-20170627-585-yerqc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia's Indigenous population is growing – rapidly.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people have a complicated history with the Australian census. Until <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mediareleasesbyCatalogue/E31B62F372FC7BCECA2581320029DC01?OpenDocument">the 1967 referendum</a>, the question about Indigenous status was used mainly to exclude the Indigenous population from official population statistics, as required by the Constitution at that time. </p>
<p>Since the 1971 Census, however, the question has been used to understand Indigenous demographic and socioeconomic outcomes. This includes observing how Indigenous peoples’ situations are changing through time, and comparing them to the non-Indigenous population.</p>
<p>Indigenous population estimates matter for policymaking. For example, the <a href="https://www.cgc.gov.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=260&Itemid=537">Commonwealth Grants Commission</a> uses estimates of the Indigenous population to advise on GST revenue allocation to the states and territories. And many <a href="http://closingthegap.pmc.gov.au/">Closing the Gap</a> targets are monitored in full or in part using census data.</p>
<p>At the same time, many Indigenous communities and organisations argue that the way data are collected and distributed takes <a href="http://caepr.anu.edu.au/Publications/mono/2016RM38.php">power out of their hands</a>, and puts them at a disadvantage.</p>
<p>So, what did we learn from the most recent release of 2016 Census data?</p>
<h2>A rapidly growing population</h2>
<p>First, the Indigenous population is growing – rapidly. In <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2940.0Main+Features12016?OpenDocument">data released on Tuesday</a>, it was estimated there are 786,689 Australians who identify as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander. This is a 17.4% increase from 2011. </p>
<p>This estimate of the total Indigenous population is based on the 2016 Census, but also takes into account people who were missed in the count. Indigenous Australians are now estimated to represent 3.3% of the total Australian population, up from 3% in 2011. </p>
<p>Setting aside for the moment those who were missed, 649,171 people identified themselves as being “of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origin” in the 2016 Census. This is up 18.4% from 2011.</p>
<p>There are several reasons for the rapidly growing visibility of Indigenous Australians in our population statistics. </p>
<p>The first is the natural increase of the Indigenous population. On average, Indigenous Australians have a slightly higher number of children than non-Indigenous Australians. </p>
<p>In addition, the children resulting from relationships between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians often identify as Indigenous, accelerating the growth of the Indigenous population. However, even after taking these factors into account, the Indigenous population was projected to reach <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3238.0">no more than 746,815 by 2016</a> – around 40,000 people fewer than the latest census-based estimate. </p>
<p>While we won’t know how accurate the assumptions underlying these projections were for some time, the probable explanation for the “extra” 40,000 Indigenous people is that some individuals who chose not to identify as Indigenous in 2011 decided to identify as Indigenous in 2016. </p>
<p>The change in propensity to identify as Indigenous makes comparisons over time difficult. Any change in socioeconomic outcomes is likely to partly result from changing life-chances for Indigenous Australians, but is also likely to be partly attributable to the change in the group of people who are classified part of the Indigenous population.</p>
<p>However, because the group of newly identifying Indigenous people is around 5% of the Indigenous population, any change in socioeconomic indicator that is greater than 5% can at least be partly attributed to a change in the circumstances of the families who identified as Indigenous in 2011. </p>
<h2>Population geography</h2>
<p>Regardless of what factors drove Indigenous population growth in the 2016 Census, it is clear that population growth was not evenly distributed. </p>
<p>As the map below of the change in census counts between 2011 and 2016 shows, the Indigenous population increased by the greatest amount in Brisbane, on the New South Wales central and north coast, and Sydney – Wollongong. Almost half (49%) of the growth of the Indigenous population occurred in just these three regions.</p>
<p>Conversely, the Indigenous population of the East Kimberley, Alice Springs, and several other remote regions appeared to decline slightly. </p>
<p>These initial figures should be interpreted cautiously. The proportion of records for whom we do not have an answer to the Indigenous status question on the census increased by about one-third between censuses. Nevertheless, it is clear that Indigenous population growth remains concentrated in NSW and Queensland.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175928/original/file-20170627-24798-1rgesdl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175928/original/file-20170627-24798-1rgesdl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175928/original/file-20170627-24798-1rgesdl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175928/original/file-20170627-24798-1rgesdl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175928/original/file-20170627-24798-1rgesdl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175928/original/file-20170627-24798-1rgesdl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175928/original/file-20170627-24798-1rgesdl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175928/original/file-20170627-24798-1rgesdl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indigenous population change by region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Census 2016</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The changing distribution of the Indigenous population can be better understood through a cartogram, as in the figure below. Each circle represents a location defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics as an “Indigenous Area”. The circles representing these locations have been sized so that their areas are proportionate to their Indigenous population count in 2011. </p>
<p>They have been moved on the map so they do not overlap, but under the constraint that they move as little as possible, that they remain within their state boundaries (except for the ACT), and that they retain their relative position next to each other as much as possible. </p>
<p>We have also added a line around the greater capital city areas to help readers identify them. Each area has been coloured in a manner that indicates the change in population between 2011 and 2016. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175929/original/file-20170627-24760-18g9rdo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175929/original/file-20170627-24760-18g9rdo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175929/original/file-20170627-24760-18g9rdo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175929/original/file-20170627-24760-18g9rdo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175929/original/file-20170627-24760-18g9rdo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175929/original/file-20170627-24760-18g9rdo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175929/original/file-20170627-24760-18g9rdo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175929/original/file-20170627-24760-18g9rdo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indigenous population change by area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Census 2016/Authors</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What the cartogram shows very clearly is that in 2011, the Indigenous population was already highly concentrated in coastal NSW and Queensland. The cartogram suggests the Indigenous population has grown substantially everywhere in the greater Brisbane/Gold Coast region, in much of the NSW central and north coast, and around the fringes of Greater Sydney and Greater Melbourne. </p>
<p>The places where the Indigenous population declined tend to be locations that had a low population in 2011 and that are located in remote parts of Australia. However, there are plenty of exceptions to both of these general patterns.</p>
<h2>Language</h2>
<p>In 2016, the number of people speaking an Australian Indigenous language at home increased by a small amount – to 63,754 persons from 60,550 in 2011.</p>
<p>This was an absolute increase. But it represents a decline in the proportion speaking an Australian Indigenous language – from 11.8% in 2011 to 10.5% in 2016. </p>
<p>This proportionate decline may result from Indigenous population growth being concentrated in areas where Indigenous languages are less commonly spoken. So, it would be hasty to jump to the conclusion that these results suggest language loss.</p>
<h2>Education</h2>
<p>Indigenous people are getting into the education system earlier and staying for longer. This is likely to lead to improved socioeconomic outcomes in future. </p>
<p>Early childhood education rates have increased. The percentage of three-to-five-year-olds who aren’t already at primary school that were attending preschool is up from 43.5% in 2011 to 48.5% in 2016. </p>
<p>At the secondary school level, 59.7% of Indigenous people aged 15-18 were attending school. This is up substantially from 51.2% in 2011. </p>
<p>Increased school attendance has flowed through to growth in the percentage of Indigenous people aged 15 or more who have completed year 12. This rose to 34.6% in 2016 from 28% in 2011. </p>
<p>Finally, the proportion of Indigenous 15-24-year-olds undertaking tertiary education appears also to have grown. In 2016, 16.2% of this cohort who were not at secondary school were studying for a tertiary qualification. This is up from 14.1% in 2011. </p>
<p>Significantly, this growth has been driven by increased university attendance (8.5% in 2016, up from 5.8% in 2011). Attendance at technical or further educational institutions has actually been falling (7.7% in 2016, down from 8.4% in 2011). This shift from technical education to university education is suggestive of the continued growth of an Indigenous middle class.</p>
<h2>Income</h2>
<p>Indigenous people are also earning more on average in 2016 than 2011. </p>
<p>Real median weekly personal pre-tax income is up from A$397 in 2011 to A$441 in 2016. Although incomes grew generally between censuses, the growth in incomes for Indigenous people outpaced that of the rest of the population. Nevertheless, on average, Indigenous people still receive a personal income that is only two-thirds that of the non-Indigenous population. </p>
<p>Similar trends were evident for household income: Indigenous household incomes are increasing more rapidly than non-Indigenous household incomes. </p>
<h2>Housing</h2>
<p>Similarly, home ownership rates among households with at least one Indigenous resident have increased slightly, from 37.4% to 39.6%. </p>
<p>Households with a resident who identifies as Indigenous are also slightly less likely to be overcrowded than in the past. The proportion of households in a house that doesn’t meet the international standard for overcrowding from 11.8% to 10.4%. </p>
<p>At the same time, overcrowding by the same measure among non-Indigenous households has risen between 2011 and 2016, from 3.2% to 3.6%. </p>
<h2>Tempered optimism</h2>
<p>The 2016 Census has mostly delivered a good news story in terms of Indigenous outcomes. But the extent to which these positive results indicate that life is getting better for Indigenous families remains unclear. </p>
<p>At least some of these apparent improvements are likely to be the result of people of relatively high socioeconomic status identifying as Indigenous for the first time.</p>
<p>In addition, there were a number of census records for which we know nothing about whether the person is Indigenous – around 6% of the total count. This is because these people didn’t fill out any census form, or they didn’t answer the Indigenous status question. Either way, we need to keep this uncertainty in mind when interpreting findings.</p>
<p>And while we have generally presented national figures here, socioeconomic outcomes for Indigenous people vary dramatically across Australia. Overall improvements, while welcome, may well mask less positive outcomes in specific regions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Biddle works for a research centre that obtains funding from government agencies that have direct responsibility for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander policy (including the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet) </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francis Markham is employed by a research centre that receives funding from the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet to undertake research related to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander policy.</span></em></p>The census mostly delivered a good news story on Indigenous Australian outcomes, but it is unclear to what extent this correlates to improved lives for Indigenous families.Nicholas Biddle, Associate Professor, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityFrancis Markham, Research Fellow, College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/800682017-06-27T09:27:37Z2017-06-27T09:27:37ZHome ownership remains strong in Australia but it masks other problems: Census data<p>The great Australia dream of owning your own home is still alive despite the various problems plaguing housing affordability, new Census data shows. Even though the overall home ownership trend remains strong, it’s masking other issues.</p>
<p>The latest 2016 Census data assesses what the national home ownership and rental rates are and how these vary location. It also gives us a picture of mortgage and rental costs.</p>
<p>Comparing home ownership rates since the 2011 Census, there’s a slow but steady decline in home ownership rates overall - down by 2.7% from 68.1% of all Australian households in 2006, to 65.4% in 2016. However, 2.7% of households did not state their housing tenure in the 2016 Census. This accounts for some of the variation in reported rates of home ownership decline. </p>
<p>This contraction is nowhere of the scale of equivalent falls in home ownership in the US and UK and New Zealand over the same period. </p>
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<p>What’s more interesting than the overall trend, is the greater decline in outright home ownership, involving no mortgage debt, from 32.1% to 31.0% between 2011 and 2016. There’s also a lesser decline in home owners who are purchasing with mortgage debt 34.9% in 2011 compared with 34.5% in 2016. </p>
<p>The opportunity <a href="http://apo.org.au/node/66261">households now have</a> to borrow against their mortgage loans for spending undoubtedly accounts for some of this change. Also contributing to this is home purchasers are less likely to reach retirement age with no remaining mortgage debt, in the same numbers as previous eras.</p>
<p>Another aspect of housing affordability is masked by these numbers - the wide variation in being able to purchase a home according to age and income. <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0012/2208/AHURI_Final_Report_No232_Generational-change-in-home-purchase-opportunity-in-Australia.pdf">Recent evidence indicates</a> would-be-home-owners try various means including very high mortgage debt and moving to outer urban locations away from employment and into smaller dwellings, to be able to buy a house. Some even delay having kids. </p>
<p>Census figures show that for people wanting to purchase a home, a change in state or city location may be an option. According to the data Darwin was the most expensive city to buy in, whereas Hobart was the cheapest for home purchasers.</p>
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<p>For households across the income spectrum, 7.2% of purchasers are paying more than 30% of their income on mortgage costs, the data shows. This figure is likely to be far higher among the lowest income (40% of households) for whom such costs place them in housing poverty.</p>
<p>Given the national obsession with investment in private rental, it’s no surprise that the proportion of all Australian households now renting has also increased. Census 2016 results show the private rental sector grew in size, from 21.0% in 2006, to 22.8% in 2011 and to 24.9% in 2016. </p>
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<p>In 2016 a total of 2,059,956 Australian households rented privately, either from real estate agents or private landlords.</p>
<p>The growth of the private rental sector largely reflects the high costs of home purchase. Many households who rent have a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-insecurity-of-private-renters-how-do-they-manage-it-77324">relative lack of security</a> and control over rental increases.</p>
<p>For those unable to pay rent in the private market, social housing is likely to provide little relief. Census data shows overall rates of social housing declining from 5.0% in 2006 to 4.2% in 2016. In this context, the <a href="http://www.homelessnessaustralia.org.au/index.php/about-homelessness/homeless-statistics">growth in rates of homelessness</a> in the last decade is perhaps not surprising.</p>
<p>For Indigenous Australians, the housing picture is different. Census 2016 data show among households in which at least one resident is Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander, 12.2% are outright owners, 25.9% are purchaser owners, 32.4% are renting privately. Around a fifth of households, 21.5%, live in social housing, reflecting targeted social housing programs in metropolitan, rural and regional areas.</p>
<p>Overall, home ownership has not changed as dramatically in the last decade, as some would have anticipated. However, it’s likely with the labour market being what it is and the adaptations people are making to try and buy a home, there may be longer-term problems to be seen in future.</p>
<p>Excessive household debt, polarisation of cities into low and high income earning areas and deepening family housing constraints indicate these Census figures likely mask bigger problems. This may translate over time into a more costly social problem, as increasing proportions of households require housing assistance of some form. Australian society could become even more divided on the basis of housing wealth and opportunity, if these trends continue, as we expect they will.</p>
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<p><em>Figures in this article has been updated since publication, from being based on ABS 2016 time series profile data, to figures based on ABS 2016 community and general profile data.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80068/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Stone receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Margaret Reynolds receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Burke receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and is on the board of the Community Housing Federation of Victoria.</span></em></p>The latest 2016 Census data assesses what the national home ownership and rental rates are and how these vary location. It also gives us a picture of mortgage and rental costs.Wendy Stone, Associate Professor, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of TechnologyMargaret Reynolds, Researcher, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of TechnologyTerry Burke, Professor of Housing Studies, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/799032017-06-27T07:00:05Z2017-06-27T07:00:05ZCensus 2016 puts on display the increasing diversity in Australians’ relationships<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175787/original/file-20170627-2582-2jfva8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Much of the change in partnering in Australia has been in response to changing legal and social norms.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The types of romantic relationships Australians have, as well as the way they are recognised and measured, have changed dramatically in the last 30 years. </p>
<p>Much of the change in partnering has been in response to changing legal and social norms. Childbearing has been decoupled from intimate relationships by the widespread availability and use of contraception and the availability of abortion. Divorce is easier to access; women play a much greater role outside the home. </p>
<p>These and other forces have led to delays in marriage, increasing co-habitation (couples living together), and a larger proportion of the population who re-partner or have more than one relationship throughout their adult life.</p>
<h2>Key trends</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/2024.0">Results from the 2016 Census</a>, released today, allow us to track marriage and co-habitation trends for both heterosexual and same-sex couples. </p>
<p>In 2001 and 2016, around 40% of Australians were classified as single. By age, this pattern declines until the mid-30s, and then increases in older ages due to divorce and widowhood. </p>
<p>The pattern is more obvious for women – particularly in the older ages, as they are more likely to experience the death of their partner. </p>
<p>There has been a slight increase in co-habitation overall to 10% of Australians, and a corresponding decrease in marriage to just under 50%. </p>
<p>What has changed the most in these relationship patterns is that co-habitation was predominantly confined in 2001 to people in their 20s and 30s. In 2016, cohabitation is also a significant feature for people up to their mid-60s.</p>
<p>Same-sex couples have been identified in the census since 1996. Over each successive census, the number of couples identifying as same-sex has increased. In 2016, 46,800 couples were same-sex – an increase of 39% from 2011. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features10July+2013">2011 Census</a> showed people in same-sex couples are, on average, younger, more educated, employed in higher-status occupations, and have <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-do-same-sex-couples-earn-29-more-16890">higher incomes</a>. </p>
<p>The 2011 Census allowed same-sex couples to identify their relationship as a marriage for the first time. As would be expected, the numbers are small (1,338) – but they will rise over time, as more people travel overseas to marry legally and in the event Australia legislates for marriage equality.</p>
<h2>What all this means</h2>
<p>The rise of co-habitation has led to speculation that marriage is out of fashion and could disappear altogether. <a href="http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol31/34/31-34.pdf#search=%22perelli-harris%22">Our research</a> shows the institution of marriage is not outdated. The nature of marriage is evolving, as people manage the changing role of intimate relationships in their lives. </p>
<p>It is also true that the marriage equality debate will lead to a re-imagining of marriage for both homosexual and heterosexual couples. Most Australians still marry, and there is no evidence that marriage will disappear – despite predictions. </p>
<p>However, while marriage may have lost its practical importance, its symbolic importance still seems to be high. In many ways, getting married is still seen as a marker of achievement. </p>
<p>Perhaps new ways of forming relationships and childbearing are not a threat to marriage: they may be a signal of the fact that more options are now available.</p>
<p>The distinction between same-sex and heterosexual relationships is complicated by the measurement of gender itself. </p>
<p>For the first time, the 2016 Census allowed non-binary gender as a response to the question of sex, although people identifying as other than male or female were required to use the paper form or to request a special online form. This would have significantly affected the overall count of people who identify as neither male nor female.</p>
<p>There were 1,300 validated responses that indicated a sex other than male or female. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has also estimated an additional 2,400 people responded both male and female on the paper form.</p>
<p>Overall, the census shows a decrease in the proportion of Australians who are married, and an increase in co-habitation of both heterosexual and same-sex relationships. We predict this will continue to rise in future censuses.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edith Gray receives funding from the Australian Research Council for the project 'Inequality in first family formation in contemporary Australia' (DP150104248). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ann Evans receives funding from the Australian Research Council for the project 'Inequality in first family formation in contemporary Australia' (DP150104248).</span></em></p>There has been a decrease in the proportion of Australians who are married, and an increase in co-habitation of both heterosexual and same-sex relationships.Edith Gray, Associate Professor, School of Demography, Australian National UniversityAnn Evans, Associate Dean (Research Training), College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/798372017-06-27T05:41:41Z2017-06-27T05:41:41ZCensus 2016 shows Australia’s changing religious profile, with more ‘nones’ than Catholics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175769/original/file-20170627-25030-19zsr1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 2016 Census showed major changes in the ranking order of religious groups in Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tracey Nearmy</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every five years the census asks Australians: “What is your religion?”. Ten tick-box responses are provided, along with the option to write in some other response. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/2024.0">2016 Census</a>, the first box was for “no religion”. This was not a secularist plot, but an acknowledgement that those declaring they had “no religion” were very likely to be the most numerous category, followed by Catholics.</p>
<p>Alongside those declaring they have “no religion”, Australia now has – in addition to a highly diverse bloc of Christian groups that are very internally diverse – five substantial religious communities (Buddhists, Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs, and Jews).</p>
<p><img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/xUA7b2r2r894zCCGxa/giphy.gif" width="100%"></p>
<h2>How religion in changing in Australia</h2>
<p>The 2016 Census showed major changes in the ranking order of religious identification groups in Australia. “No religion” leads Catholic, then Anglican, Uniting, Muslim, Buddhist, Presbyterian and Reformed, Eastern Orthodox, Hindu, Baptist, Pentecostal, Lutheran, and then Sikh.</p>
<p>It is important to note that to keep a stable percentage of the population from 2011 to 2016, a religious group had to grow by 8.8% – the national population growth rate.</p>
<p>Australia now has more Muslims and more Buddhists than Presbyterians; more Hindus than Baptists or Lutherans; and nearly as many Sikhs as Lutherans.</p>
<p>Among those groups attracting double-digit percentages of the population, there has been a continued rise of those declaring “no religion” to become the most numerous group (30.1%). Catholics are at 22.6%, while Anglicans – who had been nudged out of the top spot in 1986 – have now slipped from a high of 41% in 1921 to third place at 13.3%. </p>
<p>Among those groups attracting between 2% and 5% of the population, the Uniting church has declined to 3.7%, while Presbyterians (2.3%) are now behind Buddhists (2.4%). But both have been overtaken by Muslims (2.6%). Thanks to migration, Hindus continued their rapid rise to achieve 1.9%.</p>
<p>Among those groups clustered around 1%, Pentecostals remain unchanged (1.1%). Lutherans (0.7%) are down from 1.2% in 2011.</p>
<p>The two fastest-growing religious groups since 2011 are Sikhs, who grew by 74.1%, and the “Other Protestant” category, which grew by 79.8%. Both are now 0.5% of the population, and are more numerous than Jews (0.4%).</p>
<p>The Other Protestant category includes many who just wrote in “Protestant”, and those identifying with unaffiliated congregations. This category’s growth, along with that labelled “Christian not further defined” (to 2.6%), is an indication of the decline of the importance of denominational labels to Australians who prefer to just indicate they are Christian. This is also an indication of religious groups’ increasing diversity in Australia.</p>
<p>The Christian proportion of the population has fallen to just over 50%, down from 88% 50 years ago. More significantly, the British Protestant percentage has declined to about 20%, making it smaller than Catholics. This marks a major shift in Australian culture, which – until about 1990 – was resolutely British Protestant, with Anglicans, Presbyterians and Methodists dominant.</p>
<p>Not only has the proportion of Christians declined, it has become much less British Protestant. Australia’s religious life has changed beyond recognition from the 1950s and 1960s, when British Protestants comprised two-thirds of the population. </p>
<p>Many who were raised in those decades, including political and business leaders, still hold that form of Australia to be normal and expected. This expectation is not shared by those aged under 50.</p>
<p>Formerly dominant organised forms of religious life are attracting fewer participants and fewer who identify with them – but they are far from dead. While no longer dominant, they form part of a diverse array of identities and commitments that shape Australians’ lives.</p>
<p>When the full results become available, we will be able to see how many Australians identify with the myriad small groups – Zoroastrians, Satanists, Scientologists, witchcraft/wicca, and more.</p>
<h2>What we can draw from these results</h2>
<p>Neither those who would declare that Australia is a Christian country nor those who see the rise of those declaring “no religion” as the death knell of religion can take heart from this census. </p>
<p>Rather, the results show the diversity of Australia’s religious life. That only 9.6% refused to reply to this question – the only optional question on the census – tells us that religious identity is still of interest to Australians.</p>
<p>Also, declaring “no religion” does not mean that someone is anti-religious, lacking is spirituality, or an atheist. It means they just do not identify with a particular organised form of religion. </p>
<p>The response to the religion question provides an indication of a person’s cultural orientation and formation. Religion, culture and formation used to be overlapping and reinforcing categories. For example, Catholics were Irish, went to Catholic schools, and shared certain orientations. Presbyterians were British (Scots or Northern Irish), went to state or private schools, and shared certain orientations. </p>
<p>While this overlapping is no longer true, religious identity is far from meaningless. The census provides a moving series of snapshots of religious identity. But it does not tell us about religious belief, practice, or anything else about a person’s religious life. </p>
<p>The changing pattern of the diversity of religious identities is one indicator of a society’s degree of multiculturalism. On this measure, Australia is among the most diverse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79837/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary D Bouma does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The changing pattern of the diversity of religious identities is one indicator of a society’s degree of multicultural composition. On this measure, Australia is among the most diverse.Gary D Bouma, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/798352017-06-27T00:06:53Z2017-06-27T00:06:53ZCensus 2016 reveals Australia is becoming much more diverse – but can we trust the data?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175568/original/file-20170626-309-8wqfyz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The ABS estimates that as of December 2016, the Australian population was around 24.4 million.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>According to <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/2024.0">data released today</a>, there were 23,401,892 people who were counted in Australia on the night of the 2016 Census who were usually resident in Australia.</p>
<p>After adjusting for undercount and adding back those who were overseas on census night, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimates that as of December 2016, Australia’s population was around 24.4 million.</p>
<p>Our population is growing – and fast. But can we trust the numbers?</p>
<p><img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/l0IxYG0QmHvI3F7Gg/giphy.gif" width="100%"></p>
<h2>Issues with quality</h2>
<p>For the first time, the ABS asked an <a href="http://abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/panel">independent assurance panel</a> to look into the census’ quality. While this was prompted by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/abss-night-of-disaster-as-servers-crash-and-millions-fail-to-complete-the-census-63737?sr=3">failure of the online portal</a> on census night, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/census-2016-should-you-be-concerned-about-your-privacy-63206?sr=2">privacy concerns</a> expressed by many, the additional scrutiny is a good idea.</p>
<p>The panel reported that the 2016 Census is “of comparable quality to 2006 and 2011 and comparable collections internationally”. It reported there was a lower net undercount (that is, people who were missed from the census) in 2016 than there was for 2006 and 2011.</p>
<p>This means, for the most part, we should believe the results from the 2016 Census. All data has its limitations. But it would appear that with the information we currently have the data is robust enough, at least at the national level.</p>
<p>But, as always, the devil is in the detail. For some individual questions, there was a high level of non-response – and that needs to be taken into account.</p>
<h2>How we’re changing</h2>
<p>The data tell us quite a lot about who we are as a nation, and how our characteristics are changing. The 2016 Census reveals that Australia is becoming much more diverse – in language, country of birth, Indigenous status, and religion.</p>
<p>In the 2011 Census, 69.8% of people reported being born in Australia. This declined over the past five years to 66.7%. </p>
<p>The percentage of Australia’s current population who were born in England has also declined, from 4.2% to 3.9%. Simultaneously, there was a dramatic increase in the percentage born in China – 1.5% to 2.2% – and born in India – 1.4% to 1.9%.</p>
<p>This increase has been driven in part by the higher rate of mortality of the Australian- and European-born populations, who are much older than more recent migrant groups. More importantly, though, most of our more recent arrivals are from Asia. Combined, those born in India, China and the Philippines made up 33% of all those who now live in Australia who arrived between 2007 and 2016.</p>
<p>Australia’s Indigenous population is also growing – quite rapidly. </p>
<p><img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/3og0IQ5wsvNboijfsQ/giphy.gif" width="100%"></p>
<p>In 2016, there were 649,171 usual residents who were identified as being Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander. For those who answered the question, this represents an increase from 2.7% to 3% of the total Australian population. </p>
<p>When undercount is adjusted for, the ABS estimates that 786,689 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples should have been counted in the census. This is a growth of 18.8%, concentrated mainly in New South Wales and Queensland, and is much faster than the growth of the non-Indigenous population. </p>
<p>There was also a decline in the proportion of people who spoke English as their main language at home (76.8% in 2011 to 72.7% in 2016), an increase in those reporting no religion (21.8% to 29.6%), and a very rapid increase in the number of same-sex couples (a 39% increase to 46,800 couples).</p>
<p><img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/xUA7b2r2r894zCCGxa/giphy.gif" width="100%"></p>
<p>One result that needs to be treated with care is the high and increasing rate of non-responses recorded to some of these questions. There were 1,622,692 people recorded as “not stated” for the country-of-birth question, and 1,411,491 who were recorded as not stated for the Indigenous status question. This was an increase of 35.7% and 33.3% respectively from 2011, which was much faster than the growth of the total population. </p>
<p>That doesn’t mean that all or even most of these records are people refusing to answer the question. Rather, most are records that have been imputed due to missed households or individuals. </p>
<p><img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/l1K9EIGuYNHIOl5rG/giphy.gif" width="100%""></p>
<p>However, we do need to make sure we carefully exclude these records from our calculations. And more research is needed to uncover whether and why there are a number of people not answering individual items. </p>
<h2>Implications for policy</h2>
<p>Leaving these issues aside, there were some interesting findings that touch on ongoing policy debates.</p>
<p>The Gonski 2.0 school funding reforms <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-passage-of-gonski-2-0-is-a-victory-for-children-over-politics-79828">passed parliament last week</a>. But there was actually a decline in the proportion of infants/primary school students who were attending a non-government school since the last census, from 32.7% to 31.8% between 2011 and 2016.</p>
<p>There was a slight increase in the proportion for secondary school students (42.1% to 42.8% in non-government schools). This means the proportion across all schools was roughly stable (36.5% in 2016 compared to 36.7% in 2011). </p>
<p>There is more to the school funding debate than simply government versus non-government. But the census results show the move to the non-government sector seen over previous periods may have slowed, or even reversed.</p>
<p>Another important current policy debate relates to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). While the census isn’t ideal for understanding changes in rates of disability, there is a very important question about whether people have a “core activity need for assistance”. </p>
<p>One particular result stands out – the rapid increase in the number of children and youth reported to have such a need. Between 2011 and 2016, the proportion of those aged 19 years or under reported as having a core activity need for assistance increased from 2.1% to 2.7%, excluding the not-stated population. </p>
<p>These proportions might not seem large. But it is an extra 38,209 individuals, or a 34.5% increase in children and youth with a core activity need for assistance.</p>
<p>Finally, even if the policy responses weren’t large, the most recent federal budget and election both had a heavy focus on housing affordability and home ownership. The census doesn’t have information on house prices, but it does show that the median mortgage payment in Australia in 2016 was A$1,755 per month. Sydney, Darwin and Canberra all have median payments of $2,000 or more. </p>
<p>Over the longer term, the proportion of the Australian population who own their home outright (that is, without a mortgage) has declined from 41.1% in 1991 to 31% in 2016. Much of that decline has been made up for by an increase in the proportion renting (either from government or a private landlord) from 26.9% to 30.9% over the same period.</p>
<p>These are just a snapshot of 2016 Census results. For the most part, we can be confident that, in the words of the Australian Statistician David Kalisch:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The 2016 Census data provides a detailed, accurate and fascinating picture of Australia and our communities. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>For individual data items, we need to be more careful and circumspect. But we now have a much better idea on our nation and how it is travelling.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79835/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Biddle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The 2016 Census reveals that Australia is becoming much more diverse – in terms of language, country of birth, Indigenous status, and religion.Nicholas Biddle, Associate Professor, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/760042017-04-11T03:42:54Z2017-04-11T03:42:54ZFirst results from the 2016 Census paint a picture of who the ‘typical’ Australian is<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164754/original/image-20170410-31914-1o4xj77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The attention on the 2016 Census until now has been mostly negative.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joel Carrett</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a country as diverse as Australia, it is impossible to identify a set of characteristics that defines us. However, with today’s release of data from the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/2016+Census+National">2016 Census</a>, it is possible to identify some of the common characteristics, how they vary across states and territories, and how they are changing over time.</p>
<p>Australia undertakes a compulsory long-form census – where detailed information across several areas is required of every individual respondent – every five years.</p>
<p>So, what did we learn from the first set of results? According to the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mediareleasesbyCatalogue/5E54C95D3D5020C6CA2580FE0013A809?OpenDocument">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> (ABS):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The 2016 Census has revealed the ‘typical’ Australian is a 38-year-old female who was born in Australia, and is of English ancestry. She is married and lives in a couple family with two children and has completed Year 12. She lives in a house with three bedrooms and two motor vehicles.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Australia is getting a bit older; the typical Australian <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features30April+2013">in 2011</a> was aged 37.</p>
<h2>How do today’s results vary across Australia?</h2>
<p>First, age varies by state and territory. </p>
<p>With variables like age, we often find the “typical” value by taking the median. In essence, we (statistically) line everyone up from youngest to oldest, and find the person who is older than half the population but younger than the other half.</p>
<p>In Tasmania, the median age among 2016 Census respondents was 42. But in the Northern Territory, it was 34. Those in Australian Capital Territory were also quite young (median age 35), whereas those in South Australia were relatively old (40).</p>
<p>The NT population’s relatively young age is influenced by the very high proportion that identify as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander. </p>
<p>While we don’t have updated estimates for that proportion (either for the NT or nationally), the data released today show that the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is quite young. The median age nationally is 23. New South Wales and Queensland have the youngest Indigenous population, with a median age of 22. </p>
<p>This release also tells us something about the different migrant profiles across Australia. Nationally, the most common country of birth for migrants is England. And the median age of migrants is much older than for the Australian-born population (44 compared to 38). </p>
<p>The most common country of birth for migrants living in Queensland was New Zealand; in Victoria it was India; in NSW it was China. There may not be too many more censuses until the most common migrant nationally was not born in England.</p>
<p>Ahead of the forthcoming federal budget, there has been a lot of media and policy attention on <a href="https://theconversation.com/affordable-housing-finger-pointing-politics-and-possible-policy-solutions-75703">housing affordability</a>. Today’s release of census data points to some subtle differences across Australia that may influence policy responses.</p>
<p>Nationally, the most common tenure type is owning a three-bedroom home with a mortgage. In Queensland, however, renters make up a roughly equal share of the population. But, in Tasmania and NSW, more people own their own home outright. And in the NT, renting is the most common tenure type.</p>
<p>In a finding that won’t surprise many, the typical female does a <a href="https://theconversation.com/census-2016-women-are-still-disadvantaged-by-the-amount-of-unpaid-housework-they-do-76008">bit more unpaid work</a> around the house than the typical male. The most common category for males is less than five hours a week. The most common for females is five to 14 hours. </p>
<p>We won’t know how this compares to paid work for a while yet – or whether these differences vary depending on age.</p>
<h2>What future releases will tell us</h2>
<p>The profiles released today offer us limited information. But the census remains one of Australia’s most important datasets. </p>
<p>When detailed data are released in June and then progressively throughout the rest of 2017, we will be able to dig deeper into small geographic areas or specific population groups. </p>
<p>We will be able to ask if there are pockets of Australia with significant socioeconomic disadvantage, and if it is worsening. We will be able to hold governments accountable for the progress we have made on the education, employment and health outcomes of the Indigenous population. </p>
<p>And we will be able to test whether the languages we speak, the houses we are living in, and the jobs that we are doing, are changing.</p>
<p>But those questions rely on a high-quality census.</p>
<p>The attention on the 2016 Census until now has been mostly negative. There was increased concern related to <a href="https://theconversation.com/census-2016-should-you-be-concerned-about-your-privacy-63206">data privacy</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/censusfail?lang=en">the failure</a> of the online data entry system on census night, and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-09/abs-staff-say-data-undermined-by-funding-cuts/5801844">staff cuts</a> at the ABS.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/CO-108?opendocument&navpos=620">October 2016</a>, the ABS estimated the response rate to the 2016 Census was more than 96%, and that 58% of the household forms received were submitted online. But what <a href="https://theconversation.com/forget-the-census-undercount-what-matters-is-bias-63997">matters more</a> than how many people filled in the census and how they did it is whether the responses given were accurate. We therefore need to see a lot more interrogation of the data before taking the results at face value, but we can remain cautiously optimistic.</p>
<p>The ABS will be hoping that now some data is released, attention will shift to what the results tell us about Australian society. It is to be hoped the data will be robust, the insights will be newsworthy, and policy and practice will shift accordingly.</p>
<p>We won’t know this for sure until the first major data release of data June 27 – the data released today were just a sneak peak.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76004/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Biddle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Today’s release of data from the 2016 Census allows us to identify some of Australians’ more common characteristics, how they vary across states and territories, and how they are changing over time.Nicholas Biddle, Associate Professor, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/760082017-04-11T02:46:13Z2017-04-11T02:46:13ZCensus 2016: Women are still disadvantaged by the amount of unpaid housework they do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164756/original/image-20170411-31886-1yx7bvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Research shows women consistently trade time in employment for greater time in domestic work even when their resources are on par with men. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">f1uffster (Jeanie)/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/2016+Census+National">first release of data from the 2016 Census</a> shows the typical Australian woman spends between five and 14 hours a week doing unpaid domestic housework. For the typical Australian man it’s less than five hours a week, suggesting women still assume the lions’ share of the housework.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features40March%202009">National statistics from 2006</a> showed that women account for the majority of unpaid domestic work time, spending 33 hours a week in domestic work. Before we write these off as the bemoans of well-resourced first world problems, it is important to note that housework and the mental labour associated with its organisation have real and long-term economic consequences, particularly for women’s employment. </p>
<p>Economists often factor in housework as one dimension of a person’s total amount of time in a day. People weigh all of their time demands – work, family and leisure – and make rational trades between these to maximise resources and efficiency. The problem with this rational-choice approach, <a href="http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/230577">research shows</a>, is women consistently trade time in employment for greater time in domestic work even when their resources are on par with men. This is in a society that equates femininity with domesticity. </p>
<p>Women spend more time in housework even when they are single and working full-time. Although single women do slightly more housework than single men, it’s during singlehood that housework time is most equal by gender. When women start to cohabit, their <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1741-3737.2008.00479.x/full">housework time goes up while men’s goes down</a>, regardless of their employment status. These gender gaps in housework linger over time and widen even further when children enter the picture. </p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&lr=&id=Vnr8w6HwiAAC&oi=fnd&pg=PR7&dq=becker&ots=B3Ifre1Vg3&sig=bE4XbE3vTPir2SCyZtJFetM-6YQ#v=onepage&q=becker&f=false">Some economists have argued</a> that the traditional division of housework and employment maximises each partners’ skills and increases efficiency within a marriage. Feminists have spent decades challenging this argument by pointing out being a <a href="http://search.proquest.com/openview/dd0061f9909b9804f40e0bca440d047d/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=25922">woman does not make one more skilled in scrubbing toilets</a>.</p>
<p>And, the fact that women remain intimately tethered to the home based on gender role expectations, means women lose out on economic resources, a deficit that compounds over the life course. Australian women have <a href="https://data.oecd.org/emp/part-time-employment-rate.htm">some of the highest part-time work rates in the world</a>, often reducing work time to part-time when children are born. A second child could knock a woman out of the labour force for close to a decade.</p>
<p>This means women’s total lifetime earnings are reduced, it also shortens their career ladders and results in superannuation earnings that are significantly less than their male counterparts. In fact, one in three Australian women <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/Economic_security_for_women_in_retirement/Report">retire with nothing in their superannuation</a>.</p>
<p>The lessons from these relatively small daily housework numbers – 43 to 120 minutes – are major, showing deep and persistent mechanisms of inequality. The challenge is not housework alone but the way in which <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&lr=&id=x1SsBgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=gender+factories+fenstermaker+berk&ots=qQtaof7l2H&sig=oGPfyDNQn3mvaiFoBshYWNUnTek#v=onepage&q=gender%20factories%20fenstermaker%20berk&f=false">housework is embedded within broader care responsibilities</a>. </p>
<p>Women are expected to stay home with young children and, while they are home, they might <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&lr=&id=JuQuoPKMPF4C&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=lareau&ots=up66wIaDqW&sig=A7_jmQoMSfIwqYHYn9XXEbiK9N4#v=onepage&q=lareau&f=false">as well put on a load of washing</a>. Women who work full-time are not absolved of this guilt as they remain responsible for organising the childcare and reminding family members to pick up their socks and wipe down the benches. </p>
<p>All of this labour requires mental energy to ensure the hamster is alive and the dishes are unloaded. It is no wonder Australian women are increasingly feeling <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9566.12300/full">time pressed, stressed and depressed</a>. </p>
<p>One way to tackle this time squeeze is to create institutional structures that encourage men and women to share domestic work more equally. Because children often bring a mountain of laundry, providing extended parental leaves that are required to be shared by both parents is a start. </p>
<p>Sweden has a use-it-or-lose-it approach to parental leave requiring men to take a portion of the paid leave or the family loses this leave. The result is that men <a href="https://academic.oup.com/esr/article-abstract/18/4/433/551572/Gender-Division-of-Childcare-and-the-Sharing-of">share housework more equally over the life course</a>. Men today are <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0003122414564008">more interested in sharing childcare responsibilities</a> so the economic benefits to maternal employment from this equal sharing is a win-win for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76008/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leah Ruppanner receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>The latest Census shows Australians spend between five and 14 hours a week on unpaid domestic work, but it’s women who suffer the most from this.Leah Ruppanner, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/639972016-08-17T03:16:48Z2016-08-17T03:16:48ZForget the Census undercount, what matters is bias<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134355/original/image-20160816-13035-14psstg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If enough people from a particular group don't complete the Census, it can disrupt the data.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is fair to say the 2016 Census <a href="https://theconversation.com/abss-night-of-disaster-as-servers-crash-and-millions-fail-to-complete-the-census-63737">hasn’t quite</a> gone to plan. </p>
<p>Before Census night on August 9, there was a significant minority of Australians concerned about how <a href="https://theconversation.com/benefits-of-the-census-retaining-names-and-addresses-should-outweigh-privacy-fears-57223">names and address would be used</a>, including a number of high-profile <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-09/senators-could-be-prosecuted-over-census-revolt-abs-says/7710750">members of parliament</a>. </p>
<p>Then, of course, there was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/root-of-census-failures-say-badly-done-ibm-and-abs-still-down-for-some-63845">night of the Census itself</a> and the now ubiquitous <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23CensusFail&src=tyah">#censusfail</a>. </p>
<p>We won’t know for a while what the impact will be on the quality of the data. There is already <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/security-officials-find-ibm-failings-in-census-collapse/news-story/acb1f2a36e7e715bd2cfdf750b113ea7">speculation</a> that the response rate might be below the expected 98.3%, with some preemptively calling into account the reliability of the data.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/08/15/abs-not-considering-backup-census-plan.html">message</a> from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and government around response rates is as it should be though. There is still time to fill out the Census (either online or via paper), the data is still crucial, but the longer people leave it the less accurate the data will be.</p>
<p>Speculating on who and how many people are going to respond to the Census is a mug’s game. But it is useful to reflect on what the rate of undercount has been in the past, what the undercount might mean for decision making, and what can be done to adjust for it post-Census.</p>
<h2>The ghosts of undercounts past</h2>
<p>The most important thing to keep in mind throughout this period is that no Census has ever been perfect. There are no halcyon days where everyone filled out their Census on the allocated night, every form was filled out completely, honestly and accurately, and it was collected by ABS staff seamlessly and with no fuss. </p>
<p>In 2001, fresh out of university, I remember walking around the chilly Canberra suburbs as a Census collector. People then were confused about the point of the Census and how their data were to be used. </p>
<p>Some people were late, others were reluctant to hand over their form at all. Data from the 2001 Census ended up being crucial for policy debates over the intervening years.</p>
<p>But the response rate was not 100%. </p>
<p>Fast forward a decade and the Census before this one in 2011 also missed a large number of people. While undercount was low nationally, at 1.7%, a key point is that the undercount is not distributed evenly across the population. </p>
<p>In 2011, those who were more likely to be missed were young males. The ABS estimated that 7.8% of males aged 20-24 years were missed from the Census. Indigenous Australians and certain country-of-birth cohorts, in particular China and India, were also over-represented in the undercount.</p>
<h2>How do we know who is missed?</h2>
<p>An obvious question to ask is: how do we know who is missed from the Census? As an outsider, it can appear that most of the activity for the Census occurs on the night itself. In terms of people filling out the form, that is certainly the case. But the ABS actually spends a lot of its efforts processing and evaluating the results. </p>
<p>A key part of that evaluation is the Post-Enumeration Survey (<a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/factsheetspes?opendocument&navpos=450">PES</a>). Undertaken by trained interviewers, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyCatalogue/9E2E16CFF2CF31A6CA2570A50083C371?OpenDocument">the PES is</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] run shortly after each Census, to provide an independent measure of Census coverage. The PES determines how many people should have been counted in the Census, how many were missed, and how many were counted more than once. It also provides information on the characteristics of those in the population who have been missed or overcounted. </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134356/original/image-20160816-13028-iie5ye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134356/original/image-20160816-13028-iie5ye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134356/original/image-20160816-13028-iie5ye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134356/original/image-20160816-13028-iie5ye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134356/original/image-20160816-13028-iie5ye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134356/original/image-20160816-13028-iie5ye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134356/original/image-20160816-13028-iie5ye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134356/original/image-20160816-13028-iie5ye.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABS</span></span>
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<h2>The implications of the undercount</h2>
<p>Why are we worried about people not filling out their Census form? Clearly if hardly anyone filled out the form, we’d be in a lot of trouble. But what about if only 75% of people did, or 90% or 95%? </p>
<p>There is no magic percentage above which the Census is useful and below which we should chuck it out and start again. What really matters are the <em>biases</em>. </p>
<p>In some ways, it would be better if the ABS randomly lost a large number of Census forms than a much smaller, but non-random proportion of the population decided not to fill it out. Or worse, they intentionally gave incorrect information. </p>
<p>We can adjust for undercount, but bias is a bit harder. This is because the Census is not just used to count people, it is used to measure their distribution. </p>
<p>If people from low socioeconomic backgrounds are missed, it appears that we are richer than we actually are. If kids are missed from the Census, then we are less likely to invest in the schools and day care centres we need. </p>
<p>If people who are highly mobile don’t fill out their form, we are more likely to think that Australia’s population is spatially stable. If Indigenous Australians are missed, it makes it harder to assess the effectiveness of our policies and target the resources Indigenous Australians need.</p>
<p>If we care about these things, we should continue to encourage people to fill out their Census, using whatever mode they can. </p>
<p>It would be naive to suggest that response rates won’t be affected by the negative publicity and the difficulties some people had. But, prematurely predicting response rates is not helpful. We as a society still need people to participate in order to plan, and to hold government to account.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Biddle was employed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics from 2001 to 2007. He no longer receives any funding from the ABS, but uses Census data for research and analysis</span></em></p>If the response rate to the 2016 Census is lower than expected, it could compromise our ability to draw meaningful information from the data.Nicholas Biddle, Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/638682016-08-12T02:20:36Z2016-08-12T02:20:36ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the census debacle<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6dn2G8uJzi8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>University of Canberra acting vice-chancellor Frances Shannon and Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics including the census debacle, Peter Dutton’s refusal to further investigate the implications of the leak of the Nauru files, Glenn Stevens’ strong speech on tackling budget repair, the delay in the Indigenous recognition referendum, and Scott Morrison blocking the sale of Ausgrid to Chinese investors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63868/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The University of Canberra’s acting vice-chancellor Frances Shannon and Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraFrances Shannon, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Research, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/637552016-08-10T05:35:34Z2016-08-10T05:35:34ZDid the Census really suffer a denial-of-service ‘attack’?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133630/original/image-20160810-11006-7mecti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What really caused the Census servers to crash?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last night, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (<a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/">ABS</a>) closed the <a href="https://stream10.census.abs.gov.au/eCensusWeb/welcome.jsp#top2">2016 Census</a> website. No explanation was given at the time, except for a message on the page saying “the system is very busy at the moment”.</p>
<p>This morning, the ABS’s head statistician, David Kalisch, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-10/australian-bureau-of-statistics-says-census-website-hacked/7712216">announced</a> that the site had been brought offline by four distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. </p>
<p>The minister responsible, Michael McCormack, later qualified these statements by stating the site was not “attacked”, per se. While this is a semantic quibble, it is accurate in the sense that a DDoS “attack” in itself is not an attempt to gain access or subvert information. </p>
<p>The prime minister’s cyber security advisor, Alastair MacGibbon, added that a number of <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-defends-handling-of-census-as-privacy-commissioner-investigates-20160810-gqp45u.html">technical issues</a> compounded the effects of the attack, including the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-10/census-night-how-the-shambles-unfolded/7712964">failure of the ABS’s geoblocking system</a> at around 7.30pm, which allowed the DDoS traffic to impact the ABS servers, hosted by IBM.</p>
<p>However, it has also been pointed out that the ABS may simply have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/census-website-cracks-after-malicious-attack-by-hackers-63734">unprepared</a> for the volume of traffic it received on census night.</p>
<p>So how plausible is the claim that the census was brought down by a DDoS attack?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133626/original/image-20160810-18037-108qewk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133626/original/image-20160810-18037-108qewk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133626/original/image-20160810-18037-108qewk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=125&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133626/original/image-20160810-18037-108qewk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=125&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133626/original/image-20160810-18037-108qewk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=125&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133626/original/image-20160810-18037-108qewk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=157&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133626/original/image-20160810-18037-108qewk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=157&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133626/original/image-20160810-18037-108qewk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=157&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This is all the information users were given on Census night.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Attacking availability</h2>
<p>Confidentiality, integrity and availability are the basic principles of information security. </p>
<p>Cyber attacks are commonly mounted against each of these principles, with the ABS claiming that its server availability was the target last night.</p>
<p>A conventional attack against availability is denial-of-service (DoS). A DoS attack occurs when a system (such as a website) is flooded with carefully crafted requests such that requests from legitimate users cannot be serviced, thus causing the “denial” of service. </p>
<p>A DDoS, or distributed DoS, occurs when many systems are used to perform a DoS attack on a target. This makes it harder to counter, as the server operator cannot simply block a single system on the internet that is sending all of the spurious requests. Thus a DDoS is like many ants bringing down an antelope by working together. </p>
<p>The systems that are used to carry out the attack might be home computers connected to the internet that are being used without the knowledge or consent of their owners. </p>
<p>This can happen when a user clicks on a link contained in an unsolicited email that appears to be from a genuine party that the user trusts. Such email can be very sophisticated and appear realistic, so it is easy to be tricked. </p>
<p>The link then downloads software that allows a third party to initiate a DoS attack remotely, using the unfortunate user’s computer. When the third party has enough computers under their control (known as “zombies”), they can launch a DDoS attack from afar. </p>
<p>DoS attacks were once solely the realm of experienced hackers with detailed knowledge of the inner workings of the connected computer systems. Recently, the resources needed to perform a DoS attack have been made readily available on the internet, so people with little knowledge of the technicalities could perform an attack. Such attacks are now available anonymously as a “service”, much as many businesses use cloud services for computing power or data storage. </p>
<p>Therefore, this capability is available to a range of potential attackers, from lone-wolf disgruntled individuals, to activists, to interest groups and even nation states.</p>
<p>Websites are attacked every day. However, cyber security professionals already use a range of techniques to prevent or minimise such attacks.</p>
<p>One such is geoblocking, which prevents traffic from overseas from reaching the server. And it was the geoblocking system that apparently failed last night, allowing the DDoS to hit home.</p>
<h2>Was it a DDoS?</h2>
<p>The census servers were not actually hosted by the ABS but by <a href="http://www.itnews.com.au/news/ibm-wins-96m-to-host-ecensus-in-2016-397613">IBM</a>, a company with extensive experience of running server networks.</p>
<p>The ABS also spent around A$470,000 load-testing its census servers in anticipation of census night. It claimed to have tested the system to <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/census-australia-2016-will-first-digital-census-repeat-the-click-frenzy-crash/news-story/e8c098b8e09706452583f8fae163f7f2#itm=newscomau%7Cfinance%7Cright-now-in-%7C1%7CCensus%20Australia%202016%3A%20Online%20system%20won%E2%80%99t%20crash%2C%20ABS%20says%7Cstory%7CThe%20answer%20to%20your%20Census%20panic&itmt=1470704784819">150%</a> of the expected load, saying that it could handle <a href="https://twitter.com/ABSCensus/status/755588601656725505">1 million form submissions per hour</a> – twice what the ABS expected it would need.</p>
<p>However, that might have underestimated the kind of load the servers should have expected. </p>
<p>Consider that there were <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8153.0/">12.9 million internet subscribers</a> in Australia at the end of 2015 (according to ABS figures, no less). </p>
<p>If each of these represents a household (a reasonable assumption, given that 99.3% of internet connections are broadband) and 2 million of these households accessed the census system during the day, this leaves a potential 10.9 million households attempting to reach the census servers in the evening.</p>
<p>If only half of those households actually attempted to fill out their census form last night, that still would have exceeded the ABS’s anticipated submission rate.</p>
<p>There is also the issue of how it conducted its load-testing, and whether it worked around average numbers per hour or considered <a href="https://theconversation.com/drowning-by-averages-did-the-abs-miscalculate-the-census-load-63752">peaks in activity</a>.</p>
<p>While the ABS may have attempted to anticipate the traffic on census night, there are indications that it didn’t consider all of the possible bottlenecks. Security journalist Patrick Gray also <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/riskybusiness/status/763189895292555264">quotes a security professional’s analysis</a> of some of these bottlenecks.</p>
<p>There is also no evidence – besides the claims of the ABS and Minister McCormack – that the census servers suffered a DDoS. One website that tracks DDoS attacks globally showed <a href="http://www.digitalattackmap.com/#anim=1&color=0&country=ALL&list=0&time=17022&view=map">no unusual activity</a> in Australia around the time of the census, although such websites are not 100% accurate.</p>
<p>So while it’s possible that the census servers did suffer a DDoS attack, the evidence that it actually happened is inconclusive. </p>
<p>However, if the servers were already struggling under the load caused by Australians filling out their census forms, then even a weak DDoS could have been sufficient to tip it over the edge.</p>
<p>This leaves us with three possible scenarios: </p>
<p>1) a DDoS attack caused the problem;</p>
<p>2) too many users overloaded the system; or</p>
<p>3) a combination of both.</p>
<p>Perhaps we should apply <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor">Occam’s razor</a> and look for the simplest explanation. This would suggest that if it’s probable the Census servers simply failed under the weight of their task, then that’s the most likely explanation, rather than a deliberate DDoS attack.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63755/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Johnstone received funding from the European Union under the Framework Programme 7 grant scheme. </span></em></p>The evidence the Census servers suffered a DDoS attack is weak. A simpler explanation is that they buckled under load of Australians filling out their Census forms as asked.Mike Johnstone, Security Researcher, Senior Lecturer in Software Engineering, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/637522016-08-10T02:39:54Z2016-08-10T02:39:54ZDrowning by averages: did the ABS miscalculate the Census load?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133600/original/image-20160810-9267-866pk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If you only consider average depth, you could drown at the deepest point.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s an old parable used in introductory statistics classes to illustrate how an average can be misleading when maximum values are of interest. The parable is of a person who drowns while walking across a river. </p>
<p>The person can’t swim but is not concerned because the average depth of the river is only 20cm. The problem is the <em>average</em> depth of the river is not useful information here; what is needed is information about the <em>maximum</em> depth so that they don’t end up over their head. </p>
<p>The river might well be only 20cm deep <em>on average</em> but several metres deep in the middle. As with river crossings, so too with various networks loads.</p>
<p>While the precise reason for the meltdown of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (<a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/">ABS</a>) online census system last night <a href="https://theconversation.com/census-website-cracks-after-malicious-attack-by-hackers-63734">remains unclear</a>, there is a lesson to be learned about load testing. </p>
<p>Prior to the census date of Tuesday, August 9, the ABS announced that there was no danger of the system being unable to handle the load on census night. Why? Because it had tested the system. </p>
<p>Or, rather, the ABS paid a <a href="http://eftm.com.au/2016/08/census-2016-the-10-million-online-census-what-went-wrong-30681">considerable sum of money</a> to an external party to test the system. Load testing is performed to some given specifications and here we find what could be a serious problem in the ABS testing procedure.</p>
<h2>Averages</h2>
<p>In order to reassure the public, who were growing nervous about the new online census, the ABS made the <a href="https://twitter.com/ABSCensus/status/755588601656725505">following statement</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The online Census form can handle 1,000,000 form submissions every hour. That’s twice the capacity we expect to need.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>From this statement, it seems the ABS load-tested for 1 million submissions per hour, while expecting 0.5 million per hour. But there are between 9 and 10 million households in Australia, and the ABS was expecting around 15 million census submissions in total, with <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/census-australia-2016-will-first-digital-census-repeat-the-click-frenzy-crash/news-story/e8c098b8e09706452583f8fae163f7f2">65% submitted online</a>. </p>
<p>Of course, not all these submissions would come on August 9, but most would. Moreover, the vast majority of these submissions would be expected to come in the peak-traffic time of early evening (between around 6pm and 10pm AEST).</p>
<p>The ABS’s expected load of 0.5 million submissions per hour only makes sense as an average load across a large part of the day. For example, if there were 0.5 million submissions evenly spread across 12 hours on August 9, that would give us 6 million submissions for this period. </p>
<p>But it is clear that load would not be spread evenly. And, to stress the obvious, it is the peak load that we’re interested in. Any reasonable estimate of the peak load for the early evening period is in the vicinity of several million per hour. </p>
<p>Worse still, there is no reason to expect the load to be evenly spread within this period. It is not beyond the realms of plausibility that 3 or 4 million people would be trying to log on to the system at, say, precisely 7.10pm. </p>
<p>Of course, all of this is consistent with an average load of 0.5 million submissions per hour for August 9. But from what the ABS has said, it is not clear that it tested for such peaks.</p>
<h2>ABS up to its neck</h2>
<p>So we should be careful not to take averages too seriously. As any statistician knows, an average is one (very crude) way of summarising data. </p>
<p>Other summaries include information about the most frequent data (mode), the middle of the data (median) and the spread of the data (variance). </p>
<p>To take the average too seriously in some settings, such as in the river-crossing parable and calculating network loads, is tantamount to confusing the <em>average</em> with the <em>peak</em> (i.e. to take the river to be uniformly 20cm deep or the census submission rate to be uniformly 0.5 million per hour).</p>
<p>It might seem uncharitable to suggest that such an elementary statistical mistake lies behind the ABS website problems last night – especially when talking about an organisation filled with statisticians. </p>
<p>The ABS’s story this morning is that it deliberately shut down the system to protect it from a number of distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. This is like the river crossing being hit by a flash flood at the crucial time. </p>
<p>But there is good reason to suspect that even without such DDoS attacks, the system was in serious danger of being overloaded. This means even a small rise in the water level, as it were, could have been enough to cause a catastrophic failure.</p>
<p>Our intrepid river crosser may in fact have been drowned by an unexpected flash flood. But given their failure to recognise the limitations of averages as statistical summaries, they were in trouble the moment they dipped their toe in the water.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63752/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Colyvan receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Even without a DDoS attack, the 2016 Census may have failed due to the ABS making a rudimentary statistical error.Mark Colyvan, Professor of Philosophy, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/637342016-08-09T23:00:57Z2016-08-09T23:00:57ZCensus website cracks after ‘malicious’ attack by hackers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133588/original/image-20160809-9203-qsfbil.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This is the screen that greeted many Australians on Census night, 9 August 2016.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABS</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Australians were unable to complete the Census on August 9 due to the <a href="http://census.abs.gov.au">Census website</a> failing.</p>
<p>Australian Bureau of Statistics (<a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/">ABS</a>) chief statistician has <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/census-website-attacked-by-hackers-abs-claims-20160809-gqouum.html">blamed a deliberate</a> “denial of service attack” for the failure. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The first three [attacks] caused minor disruption, but more than two million forms were successfully submitted and safely stored.</p>
<p>After the fourth attack, which took place just after 7.30pm, the ABS took the precaution of closing down the system to ensure the integrity of the data.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Like many government information systems, the Census site was <a href="http://www.itnews.com.au/news/ibm-wins-96m-to-host-ecensus-in-2016-397613">outsourced</a> to an external contractor: IBM. As well as writing the software required for the website, IBM was responsible for providing the computers that hosted it. </p>
<p>All of this is routine for IT projects, both government and commercial. And while reasonably large, the legitimate traffic generated by the Census is dwarfed by the traffic on websites like Google, Facebook and even the nonprofit Wikipedia.</p>
<h2>Denial-of-service attacks</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.us-cert.gov/ncas/tips/ST04-015">Denial-of-service attacks</a> are deliberate attempts to render a computing service unavailable.</p>
<p>Such an attack can be performed in many ways, including interfering with physical infrastructure. However, the most common denial-of-service technique used against publicly available websites is to overwhelm it with huge numbers of requests, overloading the servers and crowding out legitimate users.</p>
<p>Typically, the requests come from “<a href="https://theconversation.com/zombie-computers-cyber-security-phishing-what-you-need-to-know-1671">botnets</a>”, which are large groups of computers – often home PCs or other poorly-defended devices – that have been taken over by hackers and are then misused for “distributed” denial-of-service attacks" (DDoS attacks). DDoS attacks have been used by activist hackers, cybercriminals and even state-sponsored hackers.</p>
<p>While the controversy surrounding the <a href="https://theconversation.com/censusfail-the-abs-hasnt-convinced-the-public-their-privacy-is-protected-63702">privacy implications</a> of the 2016 Census may not have been anticipated by the ABS, a denial-of-service attack against the Census infrastructure was always possible and should have been anticipated – especially a DDoS launched by privacy activists.</p>
<p>There are a number of ways in which the dangers of a DDoS can be mitigated. It is unknown at this point what measures the ABS and its contractors took to prepare for the possibility.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133589/original/image-20160809-18053-b9c3jk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133589/original/image-20160809-18053-b9c3jk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133589/original/image-20160809-18053-b9c3jk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=125&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133589/original/image-20160809-18053-b9c3jk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=125&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133589/original/image-20160809-18053-b9c3jk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=125&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133589/original/image-20160809-18053-b9c3jk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=157&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133589/original/image-20160809-18053-b9c3jk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=157&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133589/original/image-20160809-18053-b9c3jk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=157&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Poor capacity planning?</h2>
<p>From the perspective of the computers straining under the load, a DDoS attack is indistinguishable from a larger-than-expected number of users attempting to access the system at once.</p>
<p>The public statements of the ABS before Census night cast some doubt on whether the system was adequate to cope with even legitimate demand.</p>
<p>The head of the ABS, Chris Libreri, had earlier <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-09/abs-website-inaccessible-on-census-night/7711652">claimed</a> that its systems had been tested to cope with the load of actual Census submissions:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We have load tested it at 150% of the number of people we think are going to be on it on Tuesday for eight hours straight and it didn’t look like flinching.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The ABS stated that its website was designed to handle <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/census-2016-chaos-for-australians-ahead-of-august-9-20160802-gqizw5.html">1,000,000 form submissions per hour</a>. However, around 18 million Australians live in the eastern states, which equates to about 7 million households.</p>
<p>If even 50% of those households attempted to submit their census during the evening hours from 7pm to 9pm, that would equate to 1.75 million form submissions per hour, 75% more than the reported capacity of the site.</p>
<p>Furthermore, it’s unlikely that traffic would be uniform within that time period. “Spikes” in traffic – perhaps after popular television shows ended – could potentially have overloaded the infrastructure even further.</p>
<p>It seems almost incredible that the team responsible for the contracting would collectively make such an error in their capacity estimates. </p>
<p>Regardless of the details of the attack, and whether other aspects of planning were inadequate, the Census failure will go down as another example of a failed “Big Bang deployment”. </p>
<p>A Big Bang occurs when an IT system is deployed on a large scale, all at once, and is required to work first time. The US <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/obamacare-deadline/obamacare-website-fails-deadline-arrives-n67666">healthcare.gov website</a>, the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/worst-failure-of-public-administration-in-this-nation-payroll-system-20130806-hv1cw.html">Queensland Health payroll system</a> that failed so spectacularly in 2010, and even <a href="http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/rio-olympics-2016/2016/08/08/rio-olympics-2016-channel-7/">Channel 7’s Olympics app</a> are examples of such all-at-once rollouts running into difficulty.</p>
<p>The lessons for proponents of online voting should be clear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63734/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert has donated to and volunteered for the Australian Greens.</span></em></p>Despite assuring Australians its systems were load tested and secure, the Census site went offline at a crucial time. Could the ABS have avoided such an embarrasing failure?Robert Merkel, Lecturer in Software Engineering, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.