tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/climate-change-adaptation-3306/articlesClimate change adaptation – The Conversation2024-01-31T15:59:05Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2095662024-01-31T15:59:05Z2024-01-31T15:59:05ZHow climate activists finally seized the issue of adaptation in 2023<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541334/original/file-20230805-107442-wv2yha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=147%2C17%2C5630%2C3828&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Environmental philosopher Andreas Malm has described Sainte-Soline as an "avant-gardist struggle".</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Yohan Bonnet/AFP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The idea of adjusting our lives to face up to the reality of a changing climate was, for a long time, seen as defeatist, or even a capitulation to fossil-fuel interests, by many within the European climate movement. Such “adaptation” was viewed with deep scepticism.</p>
<p>But 2023 challenged such assumptions. In autumn, activists <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-we-be-able-to-ski-in-a-2-c-world-218731">ramped up protests against ski resorts and the winter-sports industry</a> for their seemingly endless appetite for winter sports infrastructure. Environmentalists <a href="https://reporterre.net/Glacier-en-danger-une-nuit-a-la-zad-la-plus-haute-d-Europe">occupied the Girose Glacier</a> in southeastern France to denounce plans for a new cable car. Deep scepticism was also expressed over whether holding <a href="https://www.20min.ch/fr/video/coupe-du-monde-de-ski-a-zermatt-vs-le-glacier-est-esquinte-et-le-trouble-regne-sur-la-legalite-du-trace-934896922375">preseason sporting events following the partial destruction of the Théodule Glacier</a> in Switzerland.</p>
<p>By taking a stand, these ecologists were pressing authorities to rethink planning beyond the skiing model and its dependency on “white gold”. Far from constituting adaptation, they argued that the construction of winter sports infrastructure in the remaining snow-capped mountains threatened fragile ecosystems and only postponed the inevitable shift to alternative economic models. For them and others, it constitutes <a href="https://theconversation.com/europe/topics/maladaptation-117116">“maladaptation”</a> – actions exacerbating communities’ vulnerability to climate variability.</p>
<p>Even more spectacular were <a href="https://theconversation.com/sainte-soline-un-tournant-pour-les-mouvements-ecologistes-203304">protests against proposed water reservoirs in Sainte-Soline</a>, western France, in March. Up to 30,000 protesters showed their opposition to the project, arguing that the dams, intended to collect fresh water during wet seasons to provide for increasingly drier periods, were inefficient due to water evaporation, and ultimately prioritised the interests of large agribusiness over locals’ rights.</p>
<p>The question of adaptation was therefore thrust into the spotlight like rarely before. Such protests demonstrate how deeply political climate adaptation is. What one group may perceive as positive adaptation may look like <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378015300509">maladaptation to another</a>, and a political struggle determines which view prevails. The environmental philosopher Andreas Malm described Sainte-Soline as an <a href="https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/ecologie/270323/andreas-malm-sainte-soline-est-une-lutte-avant-gardiste">“avant-gardist struggle”</a>.</p>
<h2>From idea to real life?</h2>
<p>For many years, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17565529.2017.1304887">academics have sought to shed light</a> on competing interests that are often hidden in technocratic processes inherent to adaptation. For example, dikes intended to guard against flooding may appear as a reasonable solution to some, but others could consider them a maladaptation due to their <a href="https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/metadata/adaptation-options/adaptation-or-improvement-of-dikes-and-dams">tendency to increase flooding downstream</a>. To overcome such tensions, academics have attempted to imagine a model that would not merely serve the interests of the wealthy and powerful or the economic status quo. This has become known as <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0309132511425767"><em>transformational adaptation</em></a>.</p>
<p>In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defined transformational adaptation as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“actions aiming at adapting to climate change resulting in significant changes in structure or function that go beyond adjusting existing practices”</p>
<p>“deep and long-term societal changes that influence sustainable development (include values, worldviews)”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Transformational adaptation thus requires that vulnerable communities be able to take part in designing adaptation policies, and that systemic drivers of vulnerability like poverty or discrimination be addressed. Yet while some have found partial examples of how this might happen, such as in the city of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095521002832">Barcelona</a>, discussions of transformational adaptation <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275118308217">have remained largely conceptual</a>.</p>
<h2>Swedish activists overlooked adaptation</h2>
<p>Andreas Malm’s description of Sainte-Soline as an “avant-gardist struggle” makes particular sense when we compare it to other European climate initiatives in recent years. Focusing on climate movements’ activities between 2018 and 2020, my research shows that European climate movements have seldomly taken up this role, raising the question of why this might be the case and what it might take for them to do so.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275122002876">study</a> of climate adaptation in the Swedish city of Malmö, Salvatore De Rosa (Lund University), Marwa Dabaieh (University of Malmö) and I found that vulnerable communities were regularly exposed to issues of flooding and urban heat and lacked the resources to adapt. At the same time, they lacked the political capital to confront city authorities, leaving them to resort to ad hoc methods such as sleeping in one’s garden or spending the day in air-conditioned malls. Meanwhile, city officials believed there was little need or demand to open adaptation planning to citizen input. Given this mismatch, we explored what role local climate movements, who enjoyed considerable political clout at the time of our study (2018-2019), could play to put the issues faced by vulnerable communities on the agenda.</p>
<p>We found that while local climate activists were worried about adaptation, they mainly prepared for climate disruptions by taking action at an individual level – such as taking part in local food-growing initiatives or storing drinking water in one’s basement. They did not expand this concern to include members of the most vulnerable local communities. We found this to be the case for a number of reasons, including a lack of ties between the climate movement and vulnerable communities, a global understanding of climate justice that overlooked local issues, and a hesitation to engage with climate adaptation because doing so was considered to be a defeatist excuse for inaction.</p>
<h2>Similar trends from Hamburg to Antwerp, Bristol to Manchester</h2>
<p>In another <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2021.1959123">2022 study</a>, I compared the attitudes and actions on climate adaptation of activists in Malmö to those in four other European cities (Hamburg, Antwerp, Bristol and Manchester), finding similar patterns overall. The persistent lack of engagement with adaptation was particularly striking because most activists to whom I spoke indicated they thought it was already too late to avoid severe climate disruptions and runaway climate change.</p>
<p>While some recent studies link such beliefs to a shift in focus from trying to mitigate climate change to adapting to it, I found that most activists remained focused on mitigation. For instance, they remained focused on demanding governments cut emissions in their protests, or developed green energy initiatives locally. I found their actions were not primarily guided by a logic of consequences (acting on the basis of expected utility) but by a logic of appropriateness (doing what is considered to be “right”, including not giving up on mitigation), of habit (campaigning toward the usual ends), and of affect (avoiding negative feelings by focusing on productive actions).</p>
<h2>Short-term carbon cuts</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718522002445">2023 paper</a> co-authored with political scientist Jens Marquardt, we found that activists campaigning for a local energy transition in the UK managed their fears that it might already be too late for mitigation by acting in the here and now, rather than situating actions in a long-term climate change and decarbonisation trajectory.</p>
<p>While this “presentism” proved an effective way to not become paralysed by climate anxiety, we also observed that it created certain tensions and blind spots. In particular, activists told us they sometimes worried they were not being honest with themselves, and that they should perhaps focus more on action that anticipates and adapts to climate disruptions they no longer considered preventable. However, the question of what that adaptation strategy might look like generated such fear and uncertainty that they preferred to pursue mitigation actions they did not always consider realistic, even if that sometimes made them feel dishonest.</p>
<p>That being said, this didn’t make activists any less rational to our eyes. Given what is at stake and knowing that adapting to runaway climate change is impossible, mitigation <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/">undoubtedly makes sense</a>. Our research recognises that focusing on the here and now can keep climate activists going under the direst of conditions. Nevertheless, it also revealed why climate activists hardly ever played a role in politicising this topic – especially at a local level.</p>
<h2>The future of adaptation</h2>
<p>Will the events of 2023 in France and Switzerland be regarded as exceptions, or do they usher in a broader trend toward transformative adaptation?</p>
<p>The ball is in the court of climate activists. Should they follow the lead of Sainte-Soline, senior figures in climate movements can at least rest assured that shifting the focus to adaptation will resonate with their rank and file. In another <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11027-022-10003-y">study</a> I found that at least half of a representative sample of 2,152 participants from <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14742837.2020.1836617">the 2019 Global Climate Strikes</a> attributed equal importance to adaptation and mitigation. Venturing into adaptation politics may therefore speak directly to the concerns of many activists fighting climate breakdown.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209566/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joost de Moor ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Protests against massive water reservoirs and new skiing infrastructure are some of the events in 2023 that have thrust climate adaptation politics into the limelight. Here’s why it matters.Joost de Moor, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics, Sciences Po Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214412024-01-23T17:30:34Z2024-01-23T17:30:34ZBritain is at bursting point and its flood barriers need to be updated<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570133/original/file-20240118-29-picje5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1617%2C1076&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Thames Barrier is already being used far more than was originally intended.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sunke Trace-Kleeberg</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Flooding is the top environmental hazard identified in the UK’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-register-2023">National Risk Register</a>, after a pandemic. Around one in six homes are currently at risk of flooding – a value likely to increase.</p>
<p>Many floods are caused by unusually high rainfall from successive storms which lead to <a href="https://theconversation.com/storm-babet-caused-dangerous-floods-as-the-dry-side-of-scotland-isnt-used-to-such-torrential-rain-216103">saturated ground</a> and then flooding. But flooding can also occur when high tides combine with strong winds that blow water towards the coast, resulting in extremely high water levels along the seaside and into estuaries.</p>
<p>This form of flooding happens less frequently, but is no less dangerous. In 1953 one of these “storm surges” killed more than 300 people along the east coast of Britain – it remains the country’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/1953-storm-surge-how-britains-worst-natural-disaster-kicked-off-the-debate-on-climate-change-71310">worst ever natural disaster</a>. A similar surge struck during <a href="https://www.surgewatch.org/events/1/">Storm Xaver</a> in December 2013 but thanks to better flood defences, forecasts and warnings, there was no repeat of the 1953 damage.</p>
<p>One way the UK can respond to the growing risk these coastal floods, particularly in estuaries, is to build storm surge barriers. These are enormous metal and concrete structures with movable gates that can be closed temporarily to hold back storms and high tides, protecting people and property behind from coastal flooding. </p>
<p>There are four main storm surge barriers in the UK: Thames, Ipswich, Hull and Boston, alongside many smaller barriers. This network of defences reduces the risk for millions of people and helps protect billions of pounds worth of infrastructure. Completed in 1982, the Thames barrier in London is one of the world’s largest movable flood barriers shielding 125 square kilometres of central London and 1.42 million people.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570146/original/file-20240118-23-aehxwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Barrier structure above river" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570146/original/file-20240118-23-aehxwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570146/original/file-20240118-23-aehxwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570146/original/file-20240118-23-aehxwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570146/original/file-20240118-23-aehxwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570146/original/file-20240118-23-aehxwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570146/original/file-20240118-23-aehxwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570146/original/file-20240118-23-aehxwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hull’s tidal flood barrier is the UK’s second largest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Simon Annable / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Like cars, movable flood barriers need regular servicing to ensure all systems are working properly to allow them to close smoothly when needed. This means that there is a limit to the number of occasions flood barriers can close in a year while still allowing enough time for maintenance work. </p>
<p>That isn’t a problem when the barrier is rarely being used, the Thames Barrier only closed eight times in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/30/before-the-flood-how-much-longer-will-the-thames-barrier-protect-london">the entire 1980s</a>. But in the record-breaking stormy winter of 2013/2014 it closed 50 times, equal to the maintenance limit. This is part of a trend driven by climate change: as sea-levels rise and storms get stronger, movable flood barriers are going to be called into action more often. This means more work will be needed to look after them with less time to carry out that work. </p>
<h2>Learning with the Dutch</h2>
<p>A country that is experiencing this challenge is the Netherlands. The Dutch are particularly vulnerable to flooding as the country is densely populated and 45% of its land lies below sea level. </p>
<p>The same 1953 storm that flooded the UK was even more devastating in the Netherlands, taking the lives of 1,836 people and causing €5.4 billion (£4.62 billion) worth of damage (in today’s money). This led the government to transform the country’s flood protection including the construction of six movable flood barriers with the world’s oldest – <a href="https://www.rijkswaterstaat.nl/water/waterbeheer/bescherming-tegen-het-water/waterkeringen/deltawerken/hollandsche-ijsselkering">Hollandsche IJssel</a>, completed in 1958 – and largest automatic – <a href="https://www.rijkswaterstaat.nl/en/projects/iconic-structures/maeslant-barrier">Maeslant</a> barrier, completed in 1997. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570136/original/file-20240118-15-la2c24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Barrier across canal seen from above" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570136/original/file-20240118-15-la2c24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570136/original/file-20240118-15-la2c24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570136/original/file-20240118-15-la2c24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570136/original/file-20240118-15-la2c24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570136/original/file-20240118-15-la2c24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570136/original/file-20240118-15-la2c24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570136/original/file-20240118-15-la2c24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Maeslant barrier protects Rotterdam and its huge port from floods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Faysal06 / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Dutch have a wealth of knowledge and experience in flood protection. This expertise is shared internationally through collaboration facilitated by <a href="https://www.i-storm.org">I-STORM</a>, an international network connecting and sharing knowledge between people working with movable flood barriers around the world.</p>
<p>But even in the Netherlands things need to be changed. We recently published <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378383923000601">research on the Maeslant barrier</a> which revealed that although it has only closed once in its 26-year lifetime, on <a href="https://www.netherlandswaterpartnership.com/news/maeslant-storm-surge-barrier-largest-moveable-object-world-was-closed-last-night-first-time">December 21 2023</a>, the amount of work needed to keep the barrier functioning is increasing and no longer fits into the summer maintenance period. This makes it difficult to achieve the safety standards required by law. Without changes to the way the barrier is looked after, it will not reach its planned lifetime and will not keep up with rising sea levels. </p>
<h2>Heading into an uncertain future</h2>
<p>Back in the UK, new movable flood defences are being built across Britain to protect more people and properties. The <a href="https://waterprojectsonline.com/custom_case_study/boston-barrier-2021/">Boston barrier in Lincolnshire</a> became operational in 2021 to increase flood protection for 14,300 properties. And work has begun on a new barrier in <a href="https://www.somerset.gov.uk/beaches-ports-and-flooding/bridgwater-tidal-barrier/">Bridgwater, Somerset</a> designed to protect 13,000 homes and businesses.</p>
<p>Plans are also underway to replace existing barriers. For instance, the government’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/thames-estuary-2100-te2100">Thames Estuary 2100</a> plan estimates that the Thames barrier will reach the end of its life in 2070. Further sea level rise will mean the barrier closes with increasing frequency making it harder to maintain, holding up ship traffic, and harming the health of the river. Although this is more than 40 years away, work has already begun planning a new movable flood defence to continue keeping high tides out of London. </p>
<p>This forward planning has put the UK on the front foot and keeps it resilient to the risks posed by sea-level rise, changing climate and coastal flooding. But, with more devastating weather records being broken each passing year, and the ever present threat of climate change bearing down on us, it is likely that flood barriers and coastal defences will become more important as we head into an uncertain future.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sunke Trace-Kleeberg's PhD is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Rijkswaterstaat, Southampton Marine and Maritime Institute (SMMI) and the Environment Agency (EA).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ivan Haigh receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Rijkswaterstaat and the Environment Agency (EA).</span></em></p>As the sea rises and storms get stronger, movable flood barriers are going to be used more often.Sunke Trace-Kleeberg, Postgraduate researcher, University of SouthamptonIvan Haigh, Professor in sea level and flooding, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2187312024-01-04T10:08:56Z2024-01-04T10:08:56ZWill we be able to ski in a +2°C world?<p>Over the last months, the <em>raison d’être</em> of winter sports has been threatened more than ever by a range of challenges and controversies. From the occupation by activists of the <a href="https://reporterre.net/Glacier-en-danger-une-nuit-a-la-zad-la-plus-haute-d-Europe">glacier of Girose</a>, Southeastern France, to protest against plans for a new cable car, to doubts over whether to hold pre-season sporting events following the partial destruction of the <a href="https://www.20min.ch/fr/video/coupe-du-monde-de-ski-a-zermatt-vs-le-glacier-est-esquinte-et-le-trouble-regne-sur-la-legalite-du-trace-934896922375">Théodule glacier</a> in Switzerland, scarce snow is pitting people against one another. Behind all these tensions lies the same question: what does the future hold for skiing on an overheating planet?</p>
<p>In recent decades, France has seen some ski resorts close due to a lack of snow or a sustainable business model. However, the majority of resorts continue to cling on to the hope of adapting to rising temperatures. But will reproducing the tried and tested recipes of the past be enough to meet the climate challenges ahead?</p>
<p>Published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01759-5"><em>Nature Climate Change</em></a>, our <a href="https://hal.science/hal-04192000">study</a> of 2,234 winter sports resorts in Europe sought to measure the impact of global warming on snowmaking in resorts, and the possible room for manoeuvre available to adapt.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560805/original/file-20231121-27-xomtnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560805/original/file-20231121-27-xomtnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560805/original/file-20231121-27-xomtnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560805/original/file-20231121-27-xomtnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560805/original/file-20231121-27-xomtnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560805/original/file-20231121-27-xomtnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560805/original/file-20231121-27-xomtnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560805/original/file-20231121-27-xomtnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Winter sports resorts are unevenly distributed in 18 mountain massifs across Europe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adapted from François et al., 2023</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This question is not just a concern for amateur or professional skiers. Skiing is also an economic issue, with a total turnover estimated at 30 billion euros in Europe. In France alone, 120,000 jobs depending directly and indirectly on the ski economy.</p>
<h2>53% of ski resorts are at risk of running out of snow at +2°C</h2>
<p>Climate change is a global phenomenon impacting resorts worldwide, but not all mountain areas are affected to the same degree or with the same speed, and the ability to limit the impact of these changes through snow production also varies greatly. We have measured the impact of climate change on winter sports resorts based on the level of global warming, using the graphical representation, commonly used in IPCC reports, of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-0088-0">“burning embers”</a>.</p>
<p>At 2°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, 53% of European resorts are at very high risk of low snowfall. We assess the risk of low snowfall on the basis of the frequency of snow conditions considered to be the most unfavourable, those encountered on average one season in five between 1961 and 1990, the golden age of resort development.</p>
<p>However, the picture varies at a national level: in the French Alps, this proportion concerns a third of resorts, while in the Pyrenees and in the Franco-Swiss mid-mountain massifs, 89% and 80% respectively of resorts are affected by a very high level of risk of low snowfall.</p>
<p>At 4°C of global warming, 98% of European resorts are at very high risk of low snowfall. With this level of warming, the climate leaves winter sports resorts little margin for adaptation.</p>
<h2>Changes in the use of snow production</h2>
<p>One of the most popular solutions to adapt to scarcer snow is <a href="https://theconversation.com/production-de-neige-le-piege-de-la-dependance-pour-les-stations-de-ski-198469">snowmaking</a>, also known as “artificial snow”. Snow production involves projecting micro-droplets of water into the atmosphere so that they freeze before falling back to the ground. The resulting snow, made up of small balls of ice, is a suitable material for making an underlay.</p>
<p>In the past, snow was produced mainly to limit the impact of natural fluctuations in snow cover from one season to the next. Snow is now mainly produced in the pre-season, without any knowledge of the weather conditions for the coming winter, and then on a more ad hoc basis if necessary between the Christmas and winter holidays.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560803/original/file-20231121-17-91hlvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560803/original/file-20231121-17-91hlvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560803/original/file-20231121-17-91hlvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560803/original/file-20231121-17-91hlvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560803/original/file-20231121-17-91hlvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560803/original/file-20231121-17-91hlvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560803/original/file-20231121-17-91hlvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">La Plagne Montchavin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucas Berard Chenu</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>
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<h2>Snow production also affected by rising temperatures</h2>
<p>Like natural snow, snow production is affected by rising temperatures, because snow production requires sufficiently cold weather conditions. This dual pressure is leading to increased investment to ensure that sufficient snow can be produced, thereby increasing the dependency of mountain resorts on snow tourism.</p>
<p>Not all ski resorts will equally be able to adapt to rising temperatures by producing snow. At +2°C global warming, snowmaking, if applied to 50% of the ski area, would reduce the proportion of resorts exposed to a very high risk of low snowfall in the Alps and Pyrenees to 7% and 9% respectively, while in the mid-range mountain ranges the proportion would be 56%. These differences are even more marked at higher levels of warming.</p>
<p>However, it should be remembered that while the level of snow cover is critical to ensuring resorts’ long-term socio-economic viability, other criteria are just as fundamental, such as the state of the ski lift network, promotion/marketing methods, or accommodation capacity and its attractiveness. It is therefore not possible to draw any direct conclusions from the figures for the risk of low snowfall as to the proportion or number of resorts likely to cease skiing.</p>
<h2>The carbon footprint of snow production</h2>
<p>What’s more, snow production is not carbon-neutral, so it’s important to bear this in mind before setting this technique up as the ultimate answer to reducing snow cover.</p>
<p>We have therefore also calculated the water requirements, production and energy demand involved, and the carbon footprint of the electricity used to produce snow. Over the reference period (1961-1990), the total quantity of snow produced on the slopes covered by the installations represents 13% of the total precipitation that falls annually on these same slopes. Assuming that 50% of the slopes are covered by snowmaking facilities, the total volume should increase by between 8% and 25%, depending on the country, for a warming of +2°C, and even more for a more marked warming.</p>
<p>This demand also tends to stagger over time, with lower production in November due to fewer cold spells favourable to production at the start of winter. It is therefore likely that the services provided by snow production will not be the same as in the past, which could make snow cover even more fragile over the high season.</p>
<p>In any case, the total volume of water that could be needed remains moderate, and a large part of this water is returned to the rivers as it melts. This is not to say complications can’t occur at a local scale further down the line, depending on how the water is drawn and of the makeup of affected ecosystems.</p>
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<img alt="Snowman in Pralognan (Savoie, France)." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560807/original/file-20231121-19-zrwd0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560807/original/file-20231121-19-zrwd0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560807/original/file-20231121-19-zrwd0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560807/original/file-20231121-19-zrwd0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560807/original/file-20231121-19-zrwd0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560807/original/file-20231121-19-zrwd0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560807/original/file-20231121-19-zrwd0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Snow cannon in Pralognan (Savoie, France).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucas Berard Chenu</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similarly, at around 80 kt eq CO<sub>2</sub>, the carbon footprint of the electricity used to produce snow remains limited, even if it varies greatly depending on countries’ energy mix.</p>
<h2>Skiers’ transport and accommodation still emit a lot of CO₂</h2>
<p>Finally, it is impossible to dissociate snow production from the <a href="https://www.ski-planet.com/fr/actualites-ski/479/empreinte-carbone-pour-1-journee-de-ski.html">tourism activity</a> that calls for it. In reality, it is responsible for only a fraction of the carbon footprint of a winter sports tourist destination, with skiers’ transport and accommodation proving most polluting. Carbon emissions could nevertheless rise as people travel further and further afield to find snow.</p>
<p>Would the economic benefits be worth it? Our study calls on the tourism sector to craft a strategy based on climate adaptation and decarbonisation as resorts look to the future.</p>
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<img alt="Real estate project poster in Valmorel, Panorama de La Plagne" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560809/original/file-20231121-19-i3u1c5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560809/original/file-20231121-19-i3u1c5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=164&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560809/original/file-20231121-19-i3u1c5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=164&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560809/original/file-20231121-19-i3u1c5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=164&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560809/original/file-20231121-19-i3u1c5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=207&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560809/original/file-20231121-19-i3u1c5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=207&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560809/original/file-20231121-19-i3u1c5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=207&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Real estate project poster in Valmorel, Panorama de La Plagne.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucas Berard-Chenu</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
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</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218731/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research laboratory to which Hugues François belongs (INRAE, Lyon Grenoble Center, LESSEM) has received funding from various public and private organizations for its research projects</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Météo-France department (DCSC) for which Raphaëlle Samacoïts works has received funding from various public and private organizations for its research projects.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research laboratory to which Samuel Morin belongs (CNRM, Météo-France - CNRS) has received funding from various public and private organizations for its research projects.</span></em></p>Skiing is central to the economy of many mountain regions across Europe. How are they coping with climate change and what room for adaptation do they have?Hugues François, Ingénieur de recherche tourisme et système d'information, InraeRaphaëlle Samacoïts, Ingénieur Climatologie et services climatiques, Météo-FranceSamuel Morin, Chercheur et directeur du Centre national de recherches météorologiques (Météo-France - CNRS), Météo FranceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189992023-12-01T02:24:05Z2023-12-01T02:24:05ZCOP28 climate summit just approved a ‘loss and damage’ fund. What does this mean?<p>Day one of the COP28 climate summit saw the first big breakthrough: <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/news/2023/11/COP28-Presidency-unites-the-world-on-Loss-and-Damage">agreement on a “loss and damage” fund</a> to compensate poor states for the effects of climate change.</p>
<p>Met with a standing ovation in Dubai, the agreement means wealthy states and major polluters will put millions of dollars towards a fund that will in turn distribute funds to poor states harmed by climate change. The fund will be administered by the World Bank. Initial commitments amount to US$430 million.</p>
<p>It will come as a huge relief to the United Arab Emirates, the summit’s host. The country was under pressure even before talks began about its fossil fuel expansion plans and the fact the president of the climate talks is <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-inside-the-united-arab-emirates-the-oil-giant-hosting-2023-climate-change-summit-217859">chief executive of a national oil company</a>. This undoubtedly featured in the UAE’s decision to commit US$100 million to the fund.</p>
<p>Other countries to make <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/30/agreement-on-loss-and-damage-deal-expected-on-first-day-of-cop28-talks">initial commitments to the fund</a> include the United Kingdom ($75 million), United States ($24.5 million), Japan ($10 million) and Germany (also US$100 million). Pressure will now build on other wealthy countries, including Australia, to outline their own commitments to the fund.</p>
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<h2>What’s the history of the fund?</h2>
<p>The Loss and Damage Fund was <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/03/opinions/cop27-climate-loss-and-damage-vanuatu-sutter/index.html">first suggested by Vanuatu</a> in 1991.</p>
<p>At the heart of the push for this fund is a recognition that those countries likely to be most affected by climate change are the least responsible for the problem itself. The fund would ensure those who created the problem of climate change – developed states and major emitters – would compensate those experiencing its most devastating effects.</p>
<p>With global warming now locked in and effects already being felt, from natural disasters to rising sea levels, the fund also recognises the world has failed to prevent climate change from happening.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-one-big-breakthrough-but-ultimately-an-inadequate-response-to-the-climate-crisis-194056">commitment to establish such a fund</a> was one of the most important outcomes of last year’s climate talks in Egypt. Since then, a series of meetings had taken place to try to secure international agreement about how the fund would work, who would commit to it, and who would be eligible to receive funds.</p>
<p>These meetings have been characterised by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/03/un-climate-crisis-talks-resume-loss-damage-funding-poorest-countries">significant disagreement</a> over each of these points.</p>
<p>In that sense, the COP28 announcement is a welcome and significant breakthrough.</p>
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<h2>Questions remain</h2>
<p>There’s still a lot that needs clarifying about this fund. Some of the big outstanding questions include the fund’s size, its relationship to other funds, how it will be administered over the long term, and what its funding priorities will be.</p>
<p>In response to the announcement, leading <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/1st-day-climate-conference-sets-fund-countries-hit-105269216">African think-tank representative Mohamad Adhow noted</a> there were “no hard deadlines, no targets, and countries are not obligated to pay into it, despite the whole point being for rich, high-polluting nations to support vulnerable communities who have suffered from climate impacts”.</p>
<p>There is also concern about the World Bank’s role in overseeing the fund in the first instance. Developing countries expressed opposition to this idea in the lead up to COP28, questioning the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/29/why-loss-and-damage-funds-are-key-to-climate-justice-for-developing-countries-at-cop28">World Bank’s environmental credentials and the transparency</a> of its operations.</p>
<p>While initial funding may seem generous, most analysts would also agree this fund is a long way from covering the full range of effects. Some estimates suggest the costs of climate-related harms <a href="https://assets-global.website-files.com/605869242b205050a0579e87/655b50e163c953059360564d_L%26DC_L%26D_Package_for_COP28_20112023_1227.pdf">are already at $400 billion</a> annually for developing states: roughly 1,000 times the amount initially pledged.</p>
<p>Finally, we should not assume pledges will actually translate to countries putting their hands in their pocket. The Green Climate Fund announced in 2009 – designed to help developing states with their transition away from fossil fuels and to help with adaptation initiatives – included a commitment for developed states to provide <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-climate-finance-flows-are-falling-short-of-100bn-pledge/">$100 billion per year by 2020</a>. They fell well short of this goal.</p>
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Read more:
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<h2>The legacy</h2>
<p>Agreement on this fund is a good thing in recognising the inequality at the heart of the causes and effects of climate change, and may ultimately be one of the key outcomes of these talks.</p>
<p>Early agreement also means it cannot be used as a bargaining chip over other crucial parts of these negotiations. Now the talks can now focus on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-disasters-and-heat-intensify-can-the-world-meet-the-urgency-of-the-moment-at-the-cop28-climate-talks-217063">assessment of progress</a> towards meeting commitments to the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold warming to 1.5°C to limit further dangerous levels of climate change.</p>
<p>Whether the UAE organisers and the rest of the world take up this challenge effectively will determine the effectiveness of these talks, and quite possibly the fate of the planet.</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218999/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt McDonald has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Economic and Social Research Council in the UK.</span></em></p>Through the Loss and Damage Fund, developed states and major emitters will compensate developing countries experiencing the most devastating effects of climate change. The fund is now operational.Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2186972023-11-29T19:18:21Z2023-11-29T19:18:21ZCOP28: How will Australia navigate domestic climate wins and fossil fuel exports at the negotiating table?<p>As the COP28 climate summit gets underway in the oil production hub of the United Arab Emirates today, Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen will detail our progress in meeting emissions cut targets and updated projections. </p>
<p>The second Annual Climate Change Statement will be tabled in parliament at noon. But we already know some of the detail. Australia is now likely to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/26/cop28-australia-to-bring-evidence-it-can-meet-2030-climate-target-but-pressure-builds-over-fossil-fuels">cut its emissions 42% below 2005 levels by 2030</a> – very close to the legislated 43% target the government <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6885">introduced last year</a>.</p>
<p>This is likely to give Bowen a spring in his step, when combined with last week’s funding announcement <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">on renewables and storage</a>. From this strengthened platform, he will argue Australia can be trusted to meet its climate goals. </p>
<p>Next week Bowen heads to Dubai to lead Australia’s negotiating team. He can expect international pressure to be more ambitious in setting the nation’s 2035 target. This is essential if we are to <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/631600">keep 1.5°C within reach</a>. Scientists consistently say wealthy countries such as Australia should be cutting their emissions by <a href="https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/australias-paris-agreement-pathways">50 to 75% by 2030</a> to meet the Paris Agreement goals. </p>
<p>But Bowen can also expect a different pressure, as efforts to phase down or phase out fossil fuels such as Australia’s gas and coal gather pace. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-disasters-and-heat-intensify-can-the-world-meet-the-urgency-of-the-moment-at-the-cop28-climate-talks-217063">As disasters and heat intensify, can the world meet the urgency of the moment at the COP28 climate talks?</a>
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<h2>What role will Australia play in COP28 negotiations?</h2>
<p>At COP28, Australian negotiators are likely to have two broad objectives. The first is to achieve ambitious emissions reductions in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal. The agreement requires countries to make increasingly stringent five year plans – called “nationally determined contributions” – in line with keeping global warming within the range of 1.5–2°C. </p>
<p>The second is to ensure positive outcomes for our Pacific neighbours. These objectives are linked, given the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/Supportingdemocracy/Report/Chapter_3_-_Climate_Change">existential threat</a> climate change poses to many Pacific island countries if 1.5°C of warming is exceeded. </p>
<p>Australia will play a prominent role in negotiations around adapting to climate change, as assistant climate minister Jenny McAllister will <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/mcallister/media-releases/australias-role-pre-cop-climate-talks#:%7E:text=Assistant%20Minister%20McAllister%20accepted%20an,parties%20to%20the%20Paris%20Agreement">co-chair this work</a>. We will also be visible in efforts to lay out the ground rules for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-a-year-on-from-climate-change-funding-breakthrough-poor-countries-eye-disappointment-at-dubai-summit-217198">new Loss and Damage fund</a>, a key outcome from last year’s COP27 in Egypt. </p>
<p>Negotiators are also hoping for an announcement on Australia’s bid to host a joint Australia-Pacific COP meeting in 2026. This bid has already <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-makes-cop28-important/">increased global scrutiny</a> of Australia’s international engagement on climate and its domestic actions.</p>
<h2>The elephant in the room will be fossil fuels</h2>
<p>For many nations – especially our Pacific neighbours – the elephant in the room is Australia’s plans to keep expanding fossil fuel production. This overshadows Australia’s credibility on domestic emissions reduction and its commitment to the Pacific. </p>
<p>As resources minister Madeleine King <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/king/media-releases/australia-retains-energy-export-world-leader-status">spruiked in June</a>, Australia is “one of the world’s largest exporters of liquefied natural gas, as well as the world’s largest exporter of metallurgical coal and second largest exporter of thermal coal”, based on 2021 figures. </p>
<p>The federal government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/02/coalmine-approvals-in-australia-this-year-could-add-150m-tonnes-of-co2-to-atmosphere">continues to approve</a> new and expanded coal mines under the nation’s main environmental laws, the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act. This is despite the contribution to climate change made by the emissions of the coal when burned.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="coal mine Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562304/original/file-20231129-27-jonlc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>In October 2023, the <a href="https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/single/2023/2023fca1208">Federal Court ruled</a> environment minister Tanya Plibersek could legally decide on coal mine proposals under the act without considering their potential climate impacts.</p>
<p>At COP28, observers expect to see a strong push for the <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/cop28-fossil-fuel-phaseout-carbon-bombs">phase-down</a> or total phase-out of unabated fossil fuels, given mounting evidence that <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/production-gap-report-2023">planned fossil fuel production</a> would blow the world’s remaining carbon budget several times over. </p>
<p>Even the COP28 President – UAE oil company CEO Sultan al-Jaber – has declared the phase-down of fossil fuels is <a href="https://time.com/6335225/sultan-al-jaber-cop28-interview/">“inevitable” and “essential”</a>. This has been undercut by reports the UAE <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67508331">plans to make oil deals</a> during the climate talks. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-inside-the-united-arab-emirates-the-oil-giant-hosting-2023-climate-change-summit-217859">COP28: inside the United Arab Emirates, the oil giant hosting 2023 climate change summit</a>
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<p>Australia’s position on phasing down fossil fuels remains uncertain but there’s an indication of the likely policy direction in Bowen’s <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/speech-lowy-institute">recent speech</a> to the Lowy Institute. </p>
<p>In this speech, the minister described Australia’s position as a “traditional fossil fuel-based economy in the middle of a major transition” to a low-carbon energy system. On energy exports, he sees Australia transforming from a major fossil fuel producer to a renewable energy superpower.</p>
<p>As Bowen noted, our domestic decarbonisation efforts are important, but <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/speech-lowy-institute">in global terms</a> they: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] pale in comparison to the emissions reductions achieved if we are able to harness and export our renewable energy to help countries without our abundant renewable resources to decarbonise.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>How Australia navigates this dilemma will be of great interest to our Pacific neighbours and other international onlookers at COP28. </p>
<p>For many, it will be the real litmus test for Australia’s ambition to be a global climate leader.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-disasters-and-heat-intensify-can-the-world-meet-the-urgency-of-the-moment-at-the-cop28-climate-talks-217063">As disasters and heat intensify, can the world meet the urgency of the moment at the COP28 climate talks?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218697/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacqueline Peel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New emissions projections bode well for Australia’s climate efforts – but our fossil fuel exports continue apace. Jacqueline Peel, Director, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139692023-10-29T19:11:34Z2023-10-29T19:11:34ZClimate adaptation projects sometimes exacerbate the problems they try to solve – a new tool hopes to correct that<p>When United States aid money was used to <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-40552-6_4">build a seawall</a> on Fiji’s Vanua Levu island to shield the community from rising tides, it instead acted as a dam, trapping water and debris on its landward side. </p>
<p>In another example from Bangladesh, the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/10/01/bangladesh-receives-400-million-to-rehabilitate-600km-embankments-in-coastal-districts">World Bank is pouring US$400 million</a> into expanding old flood barriers along the coastline to counter climate-induced floods and sea-level rise. But this, too, is causing new problems, including waterlogged fields and loss of soil fertility. </p>
<p>Across the globe, a “climate adaptation industry” sometimes <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01409-2">imposes solutions that exacerbate the problems</a> they aim to solve. Frequently, this comes at the cost of vulnerable communities. </p>
<p>This story <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023000225">plays out across the world</a>, including in Aotearoa New Zealand, where top-down adaptation projects can increase climate vulnerability of communities. Our work seeks to fill a critical gap by establishing a <a href="https://www.justadaptationtools.org/">monitoring and evaluation system</a> to identify the risk of maladaption.</p>
<h2>Maladaptation is a growing problem</h2>
<p>Concern about unforeseen consequences of climate adaptation has emerged as a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">key issue in the latest report</a> by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>). Authors <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/technical-summary/">noted</a> that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Evidence of maladaptation is increasing in some sectors and systems, highlighting how inappropriate responses to climate change create long-term lock-in of vulnerability, exposure and risks that are difficult and costly to change and exacerbate existing inequalities for Indigenous peoples and vulnerable groups.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Maladaptation is usually understood as referring to the unintended consequences of well-meant measures to reduce climate vulnerability. But it also includes the fallout from decisions that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/un-report-highlights-cautionary-tales-climate-finance-that-backfires-2022-03-01/">favour technical fixes</a> over <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23251042.2022.2068224">more holistic approaches</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/getting-ready-for-climate-change-is-about-people-not-spreadsheets-lets-use-our-imaginations-160706">Getting ready for climate change is about people, not spreadsheets. Let's use our imaginations</a>
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<p>Climate adaptation is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023000225">not a neutral or apolitical process</a>. It can perpetuate problematic approaches, including colonial land practices and the exclusion of Indigenous voices. </p>
<p>This can create <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.676">tenuous resource distribution</a>, <a href="https://journals.librarypublishing.arizona.edu/jpe/article/4829/galley/5481/view/">erode democratic governance</a> and <a href="https://yellowheadinstitute.org/indigenous-inclusion-climate-representation/">compromise Indigenous sovereignty</a>, exacerbating vulnerabilities. It can also <a href="https://ecologyandsociety.org/vol28/iss4/art6/">subvert community-driven bottom-up adaptation</a>, instead focusing on national agendas caught up in <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.419">international politics</a>. </p>
<p>Addressing these maladaptive strategies is pivotal for achieving climate justice.</p>
<h2>The situation in Aotearoa New Zealand</h2>
<p>In New Zealand, climate change adaptation research <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/adaptation/">is still in its early stages</a>. </p>
<p>Most adaptation projects are being designed and implemented in three key categories: flood protection (stop banks and erosion control), nature-based solutions (tree plantings and wetland restoration) and coastal hazard prevention (managed retreat and sea walls).</p>
<p>These efforts often follow a framework of “dynamic adaptation policy pathways” (<a href="https://deepsouthchallenge.co.nz/resource/from-theory-to-practice-a-timeline-of-interventions-by-a-change-agent-with-the-developers-and-users-of-dynamic-adaptive-policy-pathways-dapp/">DAPP</a>). This means the planning process has to remain flexible to keep adjusting as new information comes to hand. </p>
<p>However, a recent <a href="https://resiliencechallenge.nz/a-decade-of-dynamic-adaptive-decision-making-tools-in-aotearoa-new-zealand/">symposium</a> on the ten-year stocktake of this approach raised several critical points, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the need to involve Māori and local communities more throughout the process</p></li>
<li><p>share governance across all levels of government</p></li>
<li><p>address funding barriers for implementation </p></li>
<li><p>and avoid investments that lock in problems for the future. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Take for instance the stalled <a href="https://www.hbcoast.co.nz/">Clifton to Tangoio coastal hazards strategy</a> in the Hawke’s Bay. This project aimed to identify the areas most at risk of coastal flooding and erosion. </p>
<p>It was <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096320300346#fn2">hindered by policy ambiguity and funding issues</a>. The region now faces decisions about managed retreat because land was classified as uninhabitable after Cyclone Gabrielle.</p>
<p>Others have noted the lack of synergy between planned and community-driven climate adaptation activities. Council-planned measures <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023000997">often exacerbated climate vulnerability</a>, especially for communities already living in disadvantaged areas.</p>
<h2>Addressing maladaptation</h2>
<p>We came together as a group of Māori, Pasifika, Pākehā and <a href="https://maoridictionary.co.nz/search/?keywords=tauiwi&search=">tauiwi</a> scholars and practitioners to develop a <a href="https://www.justadaptationtools.org/">maladaptation assessment tool</a> for New Zealand.</p>
<p>Its aim is genuine sustainability and justice. It evaluates the risk of maladaptation and serves as the foundation for a national monitoring system with both regulatory and educational roles. </p>
<p>Our goals are to illuminate and ideally correct overlooked social and ecological impacts of climate adaptation and to address the limitations of current audit systems. These often neglect local justice and wellbeing concerns in favour of centrally planned projects aimed at reducing risks identified by engineering and insurance industries. </p>
<p>Our preliminary findings from the analysis of 79 adaptation projects show that managed retreat, structural flood protection and climate-resilient development projects are most at risk of maladaptation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A diagram that spells out some reasons for maladaptation that are discussed further in this article." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555462/original/file-20231023-25-t8kd97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555462/original/file-20231023-25-t8kd97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555462/original/file-20231023-25-t8kd97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555462/original/file-20231023-25-t8kd97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555462/original/file-20231023-25-t8kd97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555462/original/file-20231023-25-t8kd97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555462/original/file-20231023-25-t8kd97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Several reasons can lead to maladaptation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>To be just, climate adaptation requires a counter-intuitive approach. It should prioritise community wellbeing and examine the risks posed by both climate change and adaptation. </p>
<p>This perspective doesn’t diminish the reality of climate impacts. It contextualises them within a complex history of <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/489011/our-tipuna-knew-when-to-move-the-difficult-conversations-about-managed-retreat-for-maori">Indigenous displacement</a>, <a href="https://www.saanz.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/2_Te-Punga-Somerville_Wetland.pdf">forced landscape alteration</a> and ongoing social crises. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/colonialism-why-leading-climate-scientists-have-finally-acknowledged-its-link-with-climate-change-181642">Colonialism: why leading climate scientists have finally acknowledged its link with climate change</a>
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<p>By addressing the threat of maladaptation, we hope to encourage thinking and planning that looks <a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/101103/1/Beyond_Technical_Fixes_climate_solutions_and_the_great_derangement.pdf">beyond mere technological fixes</a> and begins to repair our broken relationships with the planet and each other.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213969/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ritodhi Chakraborty received a research grant from the Ministry of Primary Industries.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Burgess does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Preliminary findings show that managed retreat, structural flood protection and climate-resilient development projects are most at risk of maladaptation.Ritodhi Chakraborty, Lecturer of Human Geography, University of CanterburyClaire Burgess, Research Assistant, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2114822023-10-05T12:33:47Z2023-10-05T12:33:47ZClimate change is a fiscal disaster for local governments − our study shows how it’s testing communities in Florida<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551841/original/file-20231003-27-j5xxho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C4%2C2977%2C2079&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Crews clear lots of destroyed homes in Fort Myers Beach, Fla., in February 2022, four months after Hurricane Ian.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-aerial-view-construction-crews-clear-lots-of-homes-news-photo/1459509524">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-for-a-us-climate-haven-away-from-disaster-risks-good-luck-finding-one-211990">affecting communities nationwide</a>, but Florida often seems like ground zero. In September 2022, Hurricane Ian <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/us/hurricane-ian-florida-damage.html">devastated southwest Florida</a>, killing at least 156 people and causing <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092022_Ian.pdf">an estimated US$113 billion</a> in damages. Then Hurricane Idalia <a href="https://apnews.com/article/florida-hurricane-idalia-2136985ceea53f5deb600c43aeea1138">shut down the Florida Panhandle</a> in September 2023, augmented by a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/29/science/blue-supermoon.html">blue supermoon</a> that also increased <a href="https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/local/2023/08/31/hurricane-idalia-super-blue-moon-unusual-post-landfall-storm-surge-into-wakulla-county/70726049007/">tidal flooding</a> in southeast Florida. </p>
<p>Communities can adapt to some of these effects, or at least <a href="https://floridaclimateinstitute.org/docs/climatebook/Ch11-Bloetscher.pdf">buy time</a>, by taking steps such as upgrading stormwater systems and raising roads and sidewalks. But climate disasters and sea-level rise also harm local governments financially by increasing costs and undercutting their property tax bases. Local reliance on property taxes also can discourage cities from steering development out of flood zones, which is essential for reducing long-term risks.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2023.2249866">newly published study</a> and supporting <a href="https://cugis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=754b615fa5db4bbea0ed393a2c730163">online StoryMap</a>, we present the first-ever municipal fiscal impact assessment of sea-level rise in Florida and combine it with a statewide survey of coastal planners and managers. We wanted to know how sea-level rise would affect municipal tax revenues and whether coastal planners and managers are accounting for these fiscal impacts.</p>
<p>Our study finds that over half of Florida’s 410 municipalities will be affected by 6.6 feet of sea-level rise. Almost 30% of all local revenues currently generated by these 211 municipalities come from buildings in areas that will become chronically flooded, potentially by the <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html">end of the century</a>. Yet, planners and managers remain largely unaware of how much climate change will affect local fiscal health. Some communities with the most at risk are doing the least to prepare.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A year after Hurricane Ian, destruction is still widespread in Fort Myers Beach, Fla.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Property tax and climate change: A Catch-22</h2>
<p>Property taxes are critically important for municipal governments. Nationwide, they provide <a href="https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/cross-center-initiatives/state-and-local-finance-initiative/projects/state-and-local-backgrounders/property-taxes">30% of local revenues</a>. They are one of the few funding sources that local governments control, and climate change directly threatens them.</p>
<p>As climate change warms ocean waters, it <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-ian-capped-2-weeks-of-extreme-storms-around-the-globe-heres-whats-known-about-how-climate-change-fuels-tropical-cyclones-191583">fuels hurricanes and increases their reach and intensity</a>. Climate change also is <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level#">raising sea levels</a>, which increases coastal flooding during both storms and high tides, often referred to as <a href="https://www.wusf.org/environment/2021-07-15/sunny-day-high-tide-flooding-may-soon-affect-much-of-floridas-coast">sunny-day flooding</a>. Unlike storms, sea-level rise doesn’t recede, so it threatens to permanently inundate coastal lands over time. </p>
<p>Property tax revenues may decline as <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/homesec/R45999.pdf">insurance companies</a> and <a href="https://floodcoalition.org/2020/05/how-could-rising-floodwaters-impact-your-homes-value/">property markets</a> downgrade property values to reflect climate impacts, such as increasing flood risks and wildfires. Already, a growing number of insurance companies have decided to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/03/natural-disaster-climate-insurance/">stop covering some regions and types of weather events</a>, raise premiums and deductibles and drop existing policies as payouts rise in the wake of natural disasters. Growing costs of insuring or repairing homes may further hurt property values and increase home abandonment. </p>
<p>Climate change also makes it more expensive to provide municipal services like water, sewage and road maintenance. For example, high heat buckles roads, rising water tables wash out their substructure, and heavier rains stress stormwater systems. If cities don’t adapt, increasing damage from climate-driven disasters and sea-level rise will create a vicious fiscal cycle, eroding local tax bases and driving up services costs – which in turn leaves less money for adaptation. </p>
<p>However, if cities reduce development in vulnerable areas, their property taxes and other revenues will take a hit. And if they build more seawalls and homes fortified to withstand hurricanes and storms, they will induce more people to live in harm’s way. </p>
<p>In Florida, we found that these theoretical dynamics are already occurring.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwA3vzEIlF6","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Florida’s local revenues at risk</h2>
<p>Our analysis shows that sea-level rise could flood properties that have a combined assessed value of $619 billion and currently generate $2.36 billion in annual property taxes. Five million Floridians live in towns where at least 10% of local revenues comes from properties at risk of chronic and permanent flooding. For 64 municipalities, 50% of their revenues come from these risk zones. </p>
<p>Actual fiscal effects would likely be worse after accounting for other lost revenues, rising expenditures and the impacts of multiple climate hazards, such as hotter weather and more intense hurricanes.</p>
<p>These impacts are not evenly distributed. Municipalities with the greatest fiscal risks are geographically and demographically smaller, denser, wealthier and whiter. Lower-risk municipalities tend to be more populous, more diverse, lower-income and have larger land areas. </p>
<p>For instance, the 6,800 residents of the city of Treasure Island in southwest Florida are 95% white and have a median household income of $75,000. The town occupies 3 square miles of land on a barrier island. In our model, its potential lost revenues due to sea-level rise equal its entire municipal revenue stream. </p>
<p>In contrast, St. Petersburg, the nearest big city, has a population of 246,000 residents that is 69% white and a median household income of $53,800. It covers 72 square miles, with only 12% of its property tax revenues at risk from flooding.</p>
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<h2>Heads in the sand</h2>
<p>We see our findings as a wake-up call for state and local governments. Without urgent action to adapt to climate change, dozens of municipalities could end up fiscally underwater. </p>
<p>Instead, many Florida cities are pursuing continued growth through infrastructure expansion. Even after devastating events like Hurricane Ian, administrative boundaries, service obligations and budgetary responsibilities make it hard for municipal leaders to make room for water or retreat onto higher ground. </p>
<p>Treasure Island, for instance, is <a href="https://www.tbnweekly.com/beach_beacon/article_348defb2-0934-11e9-a4a4-eb7ed7651e85.html">allocating property taxes</a> to upgrade the town’s causeway bridge. This protects against modest climate impacts in the short term but will eventually be overwhelmed by bigger storm surges, rising water tables and <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level#">accelerating sea-level rise</a>. </p>
<p>These dynamics can worsen <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-miami-keeps-building-rising-seas-deepen-its-social-divide">displacement and gentrification</a>. In Miami, developers are already buying and consolidating properties in longtime Black and lower-income neighborhoods like <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/33d28b4ae86840b5b27ea8ba4b4bcc4d">Little Haiti</a>, <a href="https://nextcity.org/features/miami-underdeck-overtown-black-community-gentrification-displacement">Overtown</a> and <a href="https://www.equaltimes.org/welcome-to-miami-speculation?lang=en">Liberty City</a> that are slightly more elevated than areas along the shore.</p>
<p>If this pattern continues, we expect that inland and upland areas of cities like St. Petersburg, Tampa and Miami will attract more resilient, high-end development, while displaced low-income and minority residents are forced to move either out of the region or to coastal zones with declining resources. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Wealthy people in Miami are moving inland to avoid flooding, displacing lower-income residents and people of color.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Charting a different future</h2>
<p>We don’t see this outcome as inevitable, in Florida or elsewhere. There are ways for municipalities to manage and govern land that promote fiscally sound, equitable and sustainable ways of adapting to climate change. The key is recognizing and addressing the property tax Catch-22. </p>
<p>As a first step, governments could assess how climate change will affect their fiscal health. Second, state governments could enact legislation that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesrealestatecouncil/2018/09/14/the-case-against-property-taxes-and-two-alternative-taxes-that-work/">expands local revenue sources</a>, such as sales or consumption taxes, vacancy taxes, stormwater impact fees and resilience bonds or fees.</p>
<p>Regional sharing of land and taxes is another way for small, cash-strapped communities to reduce development in vulnerable places while maintaining services for their residents. For example, New Hampshire passed a bill in 2019 to <a href="https://legiscan.com/NH/text/SB285/2019">allow coastal municipalities to merge</a> in response to sea-level rise. </p>
<p>Finally, state governments could pass legislation to help low-income neighborhoods gain more control over land and housing. Tested tools include <a href="https://nextcity.org/urbanist-news/a-lifeline-for-preserving-limited-equity-co-ops-in-new-york">limited equity cooperatives</a>, where residents buy an affordable share in a development and later resell at below-market prices to maintain affordability; <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/08/realestate/community-land-trusts-gentrification.html">community land trusts</a>, where a nonprofit buys and holds land title to keep land costs down; and <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/04/08/residents-buying-mobile-home-parks-preserving-affordable-housing-option-low-income-americans/">resident-owned mobile home parks</a>, where residents jointly buy the land. All of these strategies help communities keep housing affordable and avoid displacement. </p>
<p>Shifting away from a business-as-usual development model won’t be easy. But our study shows that Florida, with its flat topography and thousands of miles of coastline, faces cascading fiscal impacts if it continues down its current path.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211482/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Linda Shi receives funding from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tisha Joseph Holmes received funding from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Center for Disease Control and Provention. She is affiliated with REfire Culinary. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Butler received funding from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection in support of this research. </span></em></p>A new study of Florida’s fiscal vulnerability to climate change finds that flooding directly threatens many local tax bases.Linda Shi, Assistant Professor of City and Regional Planning, Cornell UniversityTisha Joseph Holmes, Associate Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, Florida State UniversityWilliam Butler, Associate Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, Florida State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136492023-09-15T05:24:10Z2023-09-15T05:24:10ZWe are poised to pass 1.5°C of global warming – world leaders offer 4 ways to manage this dangerous time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548474/original/file-20230915-19-ddk85m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=72%2C18%2C3977%2C3017&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pasadena-california-usa-12-1-2022-2245301895">Marcus E Jones, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For three decades, the goal of international climate negotiations has been to avoid “dangerous” warming above 1.5°C. With warming to date standing at around 1.2°C, we haven’t quite reached the zone we labelled dangerous and pledged to avoid.</p>
<p>But recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-warming-to-bring-record-hot-year-by-2028-probably-our-first-above-1-5-c-limit-205758">scientific assessments</a> suggest we’re on the brink of passing that milestone. Within this decade, global annual temperatures will likely exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average <a href="https://library.wmo.int/records/item/66224-wmo-global-annual-to-decadal-climate-update">for at least one year</a>. This threshold was already briefly passed for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-blew-past-1-5-degrees-game-over-on-climate-not-yet-213364">month of July 2023</a> during the Northern summer.</p>
<p>The question is, how do we manage this period of “overshoot” and bring temperatures back down? The goal will be to restore a more habitable climate, as fast as possible.</p>
<p>Today an independent group of global leaders released a major report. The <a href="https://www.overshootcommission.org/">Climate Overshoot Commission</a> offers guidance at this crucial time. So far the report’s call for an immediate moratorium on “solar radiation management” (deflecting the sun’s rays to reduce warming) has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/14/experts-call-for-global-moratorium-on-efforts-to-geoengineer-climate">attracted the most attention</a>. But the details of other recommendations deserve closer inspection.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Introducing the Climate Overshoot Commission (2022)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-blew-past-1-5-degrees-game-over-on-climate-not-yet-213364">We just blew past 1.5 degrees. Game over on climate? Not yet</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How can we respond to climate overshoot?</h2>
<p>Historically, climate policies have focused on mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions). More recently, adaptation has gained prominence. </p>
<p>But the climate overshoot report identifies at least four different kinds of responses to warming above 1.5°C: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>cut emissions to mitigate warming </p></li>
<li><p>adapt to the changing climate </p></li>
<li><p>remove carbon that is already in the atmosphere or ocean</p></li>
<li><p>explore intervening to limit warming by intentionally reflecting a fraction of sunlight into space. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>The commission’s task was to examine how all possible responses might best be combined. Their report was written by <a href="https://www.overshootcommission.org/commission1">12 global leaders</a> – including former presidents of Niger, Kiribati and Mexico – who worked alongside a <a href="https://www.overshootcommission.org/yeg">youth panel</a> and a team of <a href="https://www.overshootcommission.org/scienceadvisors">scientific advisers</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-1-5-global-warming-limit-is-not-impossible-but-without-political-action-it-soon-will-be-159297">The 1.5℃ global warming limit is not impossible – but without political action it soon will be</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The four-step plan to reining in warming</h2>
<p>Not surprisingly, the commission argues our central task is mitigation. Transitioning away from fossil fuels remains the first priority. </p>
<p>But reaching net zero emissions is just the first step. The commission argues developed countries like Australia should go further and aim for net-negative emissions. </p>
<p>Why net-negative? In the short term, drawing down carbon can create space for the least industrialised countries to fight poverty while transitioning to clean energy. In the longer term, the whole global economy must achieve net-negative emissions if the planet is to return to our current “safe” climatic zone. </p>
<p>The second step is adaptation. Only a few decades ago former United States Vice President Al Gore branded adapting to climate change a “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644016.2022.2113606?journalCode=fenp20">lazy cop-out</a>”. Today we have no choice but to adapt to changing conditions. </p>
<p>However, adaptation is expensive – whether it is developing new crop varieties or rebuilding coastal infrastructure. Since the poorest communities who are most vulnerable to climate harms have the least capacity to adapt, the commission recommends international assistance for locally controlled, context-specific strategies.</p>
<p>As a third step, the commission agrees with <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-top-of-drastic-emissions-cuts-ipcc-finds-large-scale-co-removal-from-air-will-be-essential-to-meeting-targets-180663">scientific assessments</a> that carbon dioxide “will need to be removed from the air on a significant scale and stored securely” if we are to avoid permanent overshoot beyond 1.5°C warming. But how to achieve large-scale permanent, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00643">carbon removal</a>?</p>
<p>Some environmental activists support <a href="https://theconversation.com/stripping-carbon-from-the-atmosphere-might-be-needed-to-avoid-dangerous-warming-but-it-remains-a-deeply-uncertain-prospect-195097">natural solutions</a> such as planting trees but oppose industrial methods that seek to store carbon in inorganic form such as carbon capture and storage underground. The commission agrees the organic/inorganic distinction is important. However, it points out while forests bring many benefits, carbon stored in ecosystems is often re-released – for example, in forest fires. </p>
<p>The commission worries many carbon removal approaches are phoney, impermanent or have adverse social and environmental impacts. However, instead of ruling out technologies on ideological grounds, it recommends research and regulation to ensure only socially beneficial and high-integrity forms of carbon removal are scaled up.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1702312674418458910"}"></div></p>
<p>The fourth step – “solar radiation management” – refers to techniques that aim to reduce climate harms caused by reflecting some of the Sun’s energy into space. No-one likes the idea of solar radiation management. But no-one likes getting vaccinated either – our gut reactions don’t provide a fool-proof guide to whether an intervention is a worth considering. </p>
<p>Should we trust our guts on this one? While climate models suggest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2020/05/WGI_AR5_FAQ_EN.pdf">solar radiation management</a> could reduce climate harms, we don’t yet properly understand associated risks. </p>
<p>The commission approaches this topic with caution. On the one hand, it recommends an immediate “moratorium on the deployment of solar radiation modification and large-scale outdoor experiments” and rejects the idea that deployment is now inevitable. On the other hand, it recommends increased support for research, international dialogue on governance, and periodic global scientific reviews.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1702352669090963672"}"></div></p>
<h2>Time to examine intervention in the climate system?</h2>
<p>The idea we can avoid dangerous warming completely seems increasingly quaint. Like baggy jeans, the boy band NSYNC and the iPod shuffle, it reminds us of a more innocent era. Yet, Australia’s climate debate often seems stuck in this era. </p>
<p>The widespread hope we “still have time” means we are not yet discussing the merits of more interventionist responses to the climate crisis. However, there’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/coral-reefs-how-climate-change-threatens-the-hidden-diversity-of-marine-ecosystems-211007">increasing reason</a> to be sceptical incremental measures will be sufficient. We may soon be forced to move beyond the non-interventionist, conservation paradigm.</p>
<p>Whether or not its recommendations are taken up, the Climate Overshoot Commission’s work shows how the international community has failed to avert dangerous climate change. Reckoning with the consequences of this failure will dominate public policy for decades to come. This new report takes us a step forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213649/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Symons sits on the advisory board for RePlanet NGO and is a member of The Australian Institute of International Affairs (NSW) Council.</span></em></p>A new report explores options for managing the period after global warming exceeds 1.5°C. This is called ‘climate overshoot’, because we’re pushing past the safe zone into dangerous climate change.Jonathan Symons, Senior Lecturer, Macquarie School of Social Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2131412023-09-10T15:08:42Z2023-09-10T15:08:42ZHeat waves have a cost. Here’s why it’s important to quantify it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547065/original/file-20230811-19-98uwkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C983%2C666&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The health and economic impacts of heat are often invisible and silent.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Among the extreme weather events we are now experiencing, including floods, severe storms and wildfires, heat waves are having the greatest impact on human health.</p>
<p>Indeed, the deadliest weather event in Canadian history was the heat dome (abnormally hot temperatures that lasted several days) that hit British Columbia in 2021, causing <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/birth-adoption-death-marriage-and-divorce/deaths/coroners-service/statistical/heat_related_deaths_in_bc_knowledge_update.pdf">at least 600 deaths</a>. In addition to increased mortality, extreme heat is responsible for more emergency room visits, ambulance transports, hospitalizations, calls to health information lines, work-related accidents and greater mobilization of emergency response teams. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541747/original/file-20230808-15-vi1j62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541747/original/file-20230808-15-vi1j62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541747/original/file-20230808-15-vi1j62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541747/original/file-20230808-15-vi1j62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541747/original/file-20230808-15-vi1j62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541747/original/file-20230808-15-vi1j62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541747/original/file-20230808-15-vi1j62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Temperature anomalies during the heat dome in British Columbia in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(NASA)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Climate change will make heat waves <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1098704">longer and more intense</a>. Their future impact will be exacerbated by an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.021">aging population and increased urbanization</a>. </p>
<p>In this context, it is vital to be able to assess the health and economic burden of heat waves now and in the future. Yet, very little is known about the economic impact of extreme heat.</p>
<h2>Why do we know so little?</h2>
<p>Natural disasters such as floods, hurricanes or wildfires cause material damage to homes, businesses and agricultural crops. Since these losses are often reimbursed by insurers or governments, in the event of a catastrophe, the financial data associated with these events is readily available and known. </p>
<p>On the other hand, extreme heat tends to affect more people’s health. As a result, these costs are buried in health-care system expenditures or borne by society as a whole, making them much harder to quantify. Extreme heat is often reported as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289%2Fehp.1206025">a “silent killer”</a> because its impacts are much more invisible and silent compared to other natural disasters.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542372/original/file-20230811-29-ltbvjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="flooding in the street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542372/original/file-20230811-29-ltbvjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542372/original/file-20230811-29-ltbvjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542372/original/file-20230811-29-ltbvjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542372/original/file-20230811-29-ltbvjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542372/original/file-20230811-29-ltbvjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542372/original/file-20230811-29-ltbvjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542372/original/file-20230811-29-ltbvjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The material damage caused by other natural disasters, such as floods, is more easily quantifiable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In recent years, a few studies have attempted to estimate the costs associated with extreme heat in Canada and elsewhere in the world. For example, forecasts of the annual costs of premature heat-related deaths in Canada have been estimated at <a href="https://climatechoices.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ClimateChoices_Health-report_Final_June2021.pdf">$3 billion to 3.9 billion per year by 2050, and $5.2 billion to 8.5 billion by 2080</a>. </p>
<p>Although important and relevant, the existing research on the economic impact of heat often focuses on only one effect, for example mortality. But the impacts of extreme heat are much broader. In addition, the spatial scale of the analysis is often large (covering a whole country or province). That limits the possibility of carrying out cost-benefit analyses on a more local scale. Finally, there is room for improvement in the methodological approaches used in existing studies. </p>
<p>With multidisciplinary expertise (data science, hydrometeorology, public health and actuarial science), we seek to use innovative approaches to assess the health costs of heat in Québec and Canada. For example, we recently used artificial intelligence (AI) to process large meteorological and medical-administrative databases <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969723032837">to better model the health impacts of heat</a>. We will continue this work and built on it in order to quantify the economic burden of heat.</p>
<h2>Why is this so important?</h2>
<p>We need to be able to estimate the historical and future health costs of extreme heat in order to put in place efficient and coherent measures to fight climate change. </p>
<p>On the mitigation side, that is the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reliable projections of the health costs of extreme heat would reveal what health authorities or society can expect to pay if GHG emissions continue to rise. In this way, the reduction in GHG emissions could be converted into avoided health costs, and thus into potential savings for governments and society. This represents another argument in favour of reducing GHG emissions.</p>
<p>On the adaptation side, meaning actions to be taken to limit the consequences of climate change, estimates of the health costs of heat could serve as inputs for cost-benefit analyses of adaptation measures, such as greening or fighting urban heat islands. In such analyses, the benefits would be quantified as the heat-related health costs that would be avoided by these measures. Moreover, as these actions are often implemented at the neighbourhood or municipal scale, it will be necessary to have cost estimates that are as local as possible. Adaptation will reduce costs now, but also in the future.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541995/original/file-20230809-15-6g0v7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541995/original/file-20230809-15-6g0v7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541995/original/file-20230809-15-6g0v7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541995/original/file-20230809-15-6g0v7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541995/original/file-20230809-15-6g0v7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541995/original/file-20230809-15-6g0v7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541995/original/file-20230809-15-6g0v7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A park laid out in the city as a measure to combat urban heat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pixabay)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Estimating the health costs of heat waves is of great importance, but has been often neglected in the past in comparison to other natural disasters. New multidisciplinary research, based on advanced methodological approaches, will provide more comprehensive and accurate data on the economic impacts of extreme heat. </p>
<p>This evidence represents an effective tool for convincing decision-makers. Since our governments generally understand economic language very well, we need to adapt our discourse to be able to influence public policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213141/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeremie Boudreault received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), the Regional Climatology Consortium (Ouranos) and the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Celine Campagna et Fateh Chebana ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>Further research is needed in order to quantify the costs of extreme heat so we can reduce its damaging effects now and in the future.Jérémie Boudreault, Étudiant-chercheur au doctorat en science des données et santé environnementale, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS)Celine Campagna, Adjunct professor, Institut national de santé publique du Québec, Université LavalFateh Chebana, Professor in Data Science applied to the Environment and Environmental Health, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2108472023-08-14T15:52:44Z2023-08-14T15:52:44ZWhy older people are some of those worst affected by climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542361/original/file-20230811-7567-6gwkbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>While we are all affected to some extent by extreme weather, it is older adults, especially <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2022/09/14/how-climate-change-is-impacting-older-women.html">older women</a> and those with disabilities, who tend to be the most vulnerable. Who struggles most is partly determined by age but also <a href="https://www.apa.org/pi/aging/resources/guides/older">pre-existing health conditions</a>, mental wellbeing, and social and economic circumstances.</p>
<p>As weather extremes are becoming more frequent and <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/">intense</a> due to climate change, the world’s population is getting older. This poses a significant global challenge. In 2030, around <a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/ageing#tab=tab_1">one out of every six people</a> worldwide will be 60 or older. By that time, this age group is expected to number 1.4 billion and will increase to 2.1 billion by 2050. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, many older people lack the physical, mental, social, and financial resources needed to <a href="https://www.nia.nih.gov/research/blog/2022/04/studying-impact-climate-change-older-adult-health-and-well-being">avoid or minimise</a> the effects of extreme weather, especially in the global south. We know heatwaves can be <a href="https://clinmedjournals.org/articles/jgmg/journal-of-geriatric-medicine-and-gerontology-jgmg-4-053.php">deadly for older people</a> due to a reduced ability to regulate <a href="https://magazine.hms.harvard.edu/articles/effects-heat-older-adults">body temperature</a> in old age, for instance. This is made worse by chronic health conditions such as cardiovascular and respiratory disease, diabetes and susceptibility to dehydration. </p>
<p>In the past two decades, heat-related deaths among people aged 65 and above have almost doubled globally, reaching approximately <a href="https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/observatory/evidence/health-effects/heat-and-health/heat-and-health">300,000 deaths</a> in 2018. The 2022 European summer resulted in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02419-z">9,226 heat-related deaths</a> among people aged 65-79 years, with a significant increase to 36,848 deaths for those aged 80 and over.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542362/original/file-20230811-25-tfvqv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph of heat-related mortality by age" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542362/original/file-20230811-25-tfvqv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542362/original/file-20230811-25-tfvqv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542362/original/file-20230811-25-tfvqv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542362/original/file-20230811-25-tfvqv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542362/original/file-20230811-25-tfvqv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542362/original/file-20230811-25-tfvqv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542362/original/file-20230811-25-tfvqv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heat-related deaths in Europe during summer 2022 were concentrated among older people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02419-z">Ballester et al / Nature Medicine</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s not just heatwaves. Flooding for instance can also cause immediate injury and death to older adults. The <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/10/5/the-hidden-victims-of-pakistans-floods-its">2022 Pakistan floods</a> affected around <a href="https://www.helpage.org/what-we-do/humanitarian-action/supporting-older-people-in-pakistan-floods/">2.3 million older people</a>. Many of them weren’t mobile enough to escape or were particularly vulnerable to diarrhoea, malaria and other diseases that spread quickly in flooded areas. </p>
<p>With <a href="https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-camp-fire-seniors-mobile-home-deaths-20190209-story.html">wildfires</a>, older people are less likely to receive <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10341407/">timely warnings</a> because of poor access to phones and other digital communication technologies. As a result, they can remain unaware and ill prepared to confront impending danger making <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-26/in-california-wildfires-risk-of-death-increases-with-age">evacuation difficult</a>. They are also more likely to suffer significant financial losses as they lose their own homes and may struggle to recover with limited incomes.</p>
<p>Tropical cyclones such as hurricanes have been linked to increased <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33750775/">hospitalisations</a> among older adults. In early 2023, <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/tropical-cyclone-freddy-may-set-new-record">Cyclone Freddy </a> struck several countries across southern Africa. Malawi was worst affected, and though older adults suffered the most they were the <a href="https://helpageusa.org/older-people-in-malawi-are-worst-affected-but-last-to-be-helped-following-cyclone-freddy/">last to be helped</a>.</p>
<h2>Older people have a lot to contribute</h2>
<p>The UN has acknowledged the threat climate change poses to the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/climate-change/impact-climate-change-rights-older-persons">human rights of older people</a>. Ageism, which can cause older people to be neglected or ignored, makes the impact of climate change worse. The marginalisation of older individuals is reinforced by biased assumptions they are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9676836/">frail, sick and dependent</a>, which further justifies exclusionary practices. </p>
<p>When it comes to climate action, older people often face stereotypes of being “<a href="https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/Climate-mitigation-adaptation/pr%20-%20old%20people%20and%20climate%20change%20pr%20100826lowres.pdf">passive, incapable and withdrawn</a>”. However, they have a lot to contribute to addressing this global issue.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542641/original/file-20230814-15-amnjys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Grey haired farmer looks at field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542641/original/file-20230814-15-amnjys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542641/original/file-20230814-15-amnjys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542641/original/file-20230814-15-amnjys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542641/original/file-20230814-15-amnjys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542641/original/file-20230814-15-amnjys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542641/original/file-20230814-15-amnjys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542641/original/file-20230814-15-amnjys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lots of knowledge and wisdom to contribute.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Juice Dash / shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>As <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Analytical-Series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker">society ages</a>, there are a growing number of retired people who are educated, active and enjoying longer lives. They possess <a href="https://www.ageinternational.org.uk/policy-research/expert-voices/the-positive-impacts-of-an-ageing-population/#:%7E:text=We%20find%20examples%20of%20the,older%20people%2C%20including%20many%20women.">unique economic and social resources</a> that can be extremely valuable in tackling climate change. </p>
<p>They also wield significant voting power and economic influence, which can be harnessed to promote climate policies. Climate action is often associated with young people. Around 70% of under 18s who responded to a major UN <a href="https://www.undp.org/publications/peoples-climate-vote">worldwide survey</a> believed climate change is a global emergency. But their older counterparts are not far behind – 58% of those aged 60-plus feel the same. Getting older people involved and <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/OlderPeople_inClimateAction_briefing_18032021.pdf">empowering them to take action</a> in tackling the climate crisis can help build even more support for the climate movement.</p>
<p>Older adults often hold <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/how-indigenous-peoples-enrich-climate-action">indigenous and local knowledge</a> of the place where they live. Their memories of past events and disasters provide valuable insights which can be crucial in adapting to and reducing the impact of climate change. </p>
<p>For example, in Bolivia, <a href="https://www.helpage.org/blog/knowledge-is-life-older-people-a-key-resource-in-disaster-risk-reduction/">HelpAge International</a> used the wisdom of older people to implement a traditional technique called camellones or “camel humps” to adapt to climate challenges. These raised beds protected crops during floods, improved water retention during droughts and also helped maintain soil health and diverse crop production, ensuring better food security. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542363/original/file-20230811-33526-eadvxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="woman walks through flood waters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542363/original/file-20230811-33526-eadvxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542363/original/file-20230811-33526-eadvxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542363/original/file-20230811-33526-eadvxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542363/original/file-20230811-33526-eadvxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542363/original/file-20230811-33526-eadvxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542363/original/file-20230811-33526-eadvxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542363/original/file-20230811-33526-eadvxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Disastrous floods in Pakistan in 2022 disproportionately affected older people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Asianet-Pakistan / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many older people also aspire to leave a <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0228963">legacy</a>, passing on their values and a preserved planet to future generations. This desire drives them to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7916887/">take part</a> in climate action, ensuring a better world for future generations. <a href="https://climateoutreach.org/engaging-older-people/">Engaging</a> and empowering older people therefore in <a href="https://www.helpage.org/a-rising-force-for-change-older-people-and-climate-action/">climate action</a> not only provides an opportunity to address the climate emergency, but can contribute to building local community resilience. </p>
<p>To make this happen, we need to overcome obstacles such as access to technology, or buildings that are not easily accessible, so that older people can contribute their skills and abilities. There are already various initiatives around the world, such as <a href="https://theelders.org/programmes/climate-change">The Elders</a> and <a href="https://www.easi.org/">Senior Environment Corps</a>, as well as specific groups like <a href="https://www.eldersclimateaction.org/">Elders for Climate Action</a> in the US and <a href="https://seniorsforclimateactionnow.org/">Seniors for Climate Action</a> in Canada, which involve older people in climate-related efforts.</p>
<p>It is crucial now, more than ever, that we reach old age in <a href="https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/what-do-we-know-about-healthy-aging#:%7E:text=Taking%20care%20of%20your%20physical%2C%20mental%2C%20and%20cognitive%20health%20is,going%20to%20the%20doctor%20regularly.">good health</a> to have the resilience to deal with extreme weather events. This not only requires <a href="https://citymonitor.ai/environment/climate-change-environment/cities-adapting-prepared-for-climate-change">climate-proofing cities</a> and other communities but recognising and using the valuable knowledge and experience of older people in tackling the climate crisis.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210847/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary Haq is a Senior Research Fellow at the Stockholm Environment Institute - Dept. of Environment and Geography, University of York (UK). He receives funding from UKRI for a project on Healthy Ageing and Climate Change. He is a member of HelpAge International's Global Initiatives Advisory Group, and has advised UNESCAP on climate change and ageing issues. </span></em></p>Across the world, elderly people tend to be the most vulnerable to climate-related disasters.Gary Haq, Senior Research Fellow at the Stockholm Environment Institute, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102822023-07-25T20:06:53Z2023-07-25T20:06:53ZTourists flock to the Mediterranean as if the climate crisis isn’t happening. This year’s heat and fire will force change<p>Thousands of people on the beach. Children reportedly falling off evacuation boats. Panic. People fleeing with the clothes on their backs. It felt like “the end of the world”, according to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/23/british-tourists-tell-of-nightmare-in-rhodes-fires-greece">one tourist</a>. </p>
<p>The fires sweeping through the Greek islands of Rhodes and Corfu are showing us favourite holiday destinations are no longer safe as climate change intensifies. </p>
<p>For decades, tourists have flocked to the Mediterranean for the northern summer. Australians, Scandinavians, Brits, Russians all arrive seeking warmer weather. After COVID, many of us have been keen to travel once again. </p>
<p>But this year, the intense heatwaves have claimed <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/world/heatwave-pictures-wildfires-worsen-greece-italy-spain-europe-us-2488556">hundreds of lives</a> in Spain alone. Major tourist drawcards such as the Acropolis in Athens have been closed. Climate scientists are “stunned by the ferocity” of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/25/northern-hemisphere-heatwaves-europe-greece-italy-wildfires-extreme-weather-climate-experts">heat</a>. </p>
<p>This year is likely to force a rethink for tourists and for tourism operators. Expect to see more trips taken during shoulder seasons, avoiding the increasingly intense July to August summer. And expect temperate countries to become more popular tourist destinations. Warm-weather tourist destinations will have to radically change. </p>
<h2>What will climate change do to mass tourism?</h2>
<p>Weather is a major factor in tourism. In Europe and North America, people tend to go from northern countries to southern regions. Chinese tourists, like Australians, often head to Southeast Asian beaches. </p>
<p>In Europe, the north-south flow is almost hardwired. When Australians go overseas, they often choose Mediterranean summers. Over the last decade, hotter summers haven’t been a dealbreaker.</p>
<p>But this year is likely to drive change. You can already see that in the growing popularity of shoulder seasons (June or September) in the traditional Northern Hemisphere summer destinations. </p>
<p>Many of us are shifting how we think about hot weather holidays from something we seek to something we fear. This comes on top of consumer shifts such as those related to sustainability and <a href="https://theconversation.com/flight-shaming-how-to-spread-the-campaign-that-made-swedes-give-up-flying-for-good-133842">flight shame</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/european-heatwave-whats-causing-it-and-is-climate-change-to-blame-209653">European heatwave: what’s causing it and is climate change to blame?</a>
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<p>What about disaster tourism? While thrillseekers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/22/death-valley-tourism-extreme-weather-california">may be flocking</a> to Death Valley to experience temperatures over 50°C, it’s hard to imagine this type of tourism going mainstream. </p>
<p>What we’re more likely to see is more people seeking “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09669582.2016.1213849?journalCode=rsus20">last-chance</a>” experiences, with tourists flocking to highly vulnerable sites such as the Great Barrier Reef. Of course, this type of tourism isn’t sustainable long-term. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539165/original/file-20230725-15-ogyhrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539165/original/file-20230725-15-ogyhrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539165/original/file-20230725-15-ogyhrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539165/original/file-20230725-15-ogyhrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539165/original/file-20230725-15-ogyhrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539165/original/file-20230725-15-ogyhrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539165/original/file-20230725-15-ogyhrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539165/original/file-20230725-15-ogyhrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Tourists at the famous thermometer at Furnace Creek, Death Valley.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>What does this mean for countries reliant on tourism?</h2>
<p>The crisis in Rhodes shows us the perils of the just-in-time model of tourism, where you bring in tourists and everything they need –food, water, wine – as they need it. </p>
<p>The system is geared to efficiency. But that means there’s little space for contingencies. Rhodes wasn’t able to easily evacuate 19,000 tourists. This approach will have to change to a just-in-case approach, as in other <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/willyshih/2022/01/30/from-just-in-time-to-just-in-case-is-excess-and-obsolete-next/?sh=195cd054daf7">supply chains</a>.</p>
<p>For <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261517712002063">emergency services</a>, tourists pose a particular challenge. Locals have a better understanding than tourists of risks and escape routes. Plus tourists don’t speak the language. That makes them much harder to help compared to locals. </p>
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<p>Climate change poses immense challenges in other ways, too. Pacific atoll nations like Kiribati or Tuvalu <a href="https://www.pacificpsdi.org/assets/Uploads/PSDI-TourismSnapshot-TUV3.pdf">would love</a> more tourists to visit. The problem there is water. Sourcing enough water for locals is getting harder. And tourists use a lot of water – drinking it, showering in it, swimming in it. Careful planning will be required to ensure local carrying capacities are not exceeded by tourism. </p>
<p>So does this spell the end of mass tourism? Not entirely. But it will certainly accelerate the trend in countries like Spain away from mass tourism, or “overtourism”. In super-popular tourist destinations like Spain’s Balearic Islands, there’s been an increasing pushback from locals against <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-in-the-era-of-overtourism-but-there-is-a-more-sustainable-way-forward-108906">overtourism</a> in favour of specialised tourism with smaller numbers spread out over the year. </p>
<p>Is this year a wake-up call? Yes. The intensifying climate crisis means many of us are now more focused on what we can do to stave off the worst of it by, say, avoiding flights. The pressure for change is growing too. Delta Airlines is being sued over its announcement to go carbon neutral by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/30/delta-air-lines-lawsuit-carbon-neutrality-aoe">using offsets</a>, for instance. </p>
<h2>Mountains not beaches: future tourism may look a lot different</h2>
<p>You can already see efforts to adapt to the changes in many countries. In Italy, for instance, domestic mountain tourism is <a href="https://www.euromontana.org/en/neve-diversa-how-mountain-tourism-can-adapt-to-climate-change/">growing</a>, enticing people from hot and humid Milan and Rome up where the air is cooler – even if the snow is disappearing. </p>
<p>China, which doesn’t do things by halves, is investing in mountain resorts. The goal here is to offer cooler alternatives like northern China’s <a href="https://english.news.cn/20230714/9ae6f89a6b7b433ebde3ec689b87f6db/c.html">Jilin province</a> to beach holidays for sweltering residents of megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai. </p>
<p>Some mountainous countries are unlikely to seize the opportunity because they don’t want to draw more tourists. Norway is considering a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2022/12/03/norway-to-consider-introducing-tourist-tax-from-2024/?sh=710871eb1b27">tourist tax</a>.</p>
<p>Forward-thinking countries will be better prepared. But there are limits to preparation and adaptation. Mediterranean summer holidays will be less and less appealing, as the region is a <a href="https://www.unep.org/unepmap/resources/factsheets/climate-change">heating hotspot</a>, warming 20% faster than the world average. Italy and Spain are still <a href="https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/severe-drought-western-mediterranean-faces-low-river-flows-and-crop-yields-earlier-ever-2023-06-13_en">in the grip</a> of a record-breaking drought, threatening food and water supplies. The future of tourism is going to be very different. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/were-in-the-era-of-overtourism-but-there-is-a-more-sustainable-way-forward-108906">We're in the era of overtourism but there is a more sustainable way forward</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210282/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>No one plans a European holiday thinking of fleeing from fire or sheltering from intense heat. But the climate crisis is forcing a reckoning – tourism as we knew it will have to change.Susanne Becken, Professor of Sustainable Tourism, Griffith Institute for Tourism, Griffith UniversityJohanna Loehr, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2101712023-07-21T15:16:37Z2023-07-21T15:16:37ZThe UK is still not prepared for extreme temperatures – here’s what it should do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538745/original/file-20230721-15-d4ax01.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=398%2C0%2C3366%2C2152&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nm2003 / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While massive heatwaves are affecting <a href="https://theconversation.com/european-heatwave-whats-causing-it-and-is-climate-change-to-blame-209653">southern Europe</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-logs-522-celsius-extreme-weather-rewrites-records-2023-07-17/">China</a>, the US and many other places, it’s rainy and not particularly warm in the UK. But that doesn’t mean there’s no risk of intense heat: on this exact week last year, the UK broke 40°C for the first time. </p>
<p>Even if countries were to deliver on their emission reduction pledges, set under the Paris agreement, the <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">UN Environment Programme estimates</a> that we will still see at least a 2.5°C rise in global temperature. For the UK, the new reality is that 40°C temperatures are possible and eventually will be commonplace, and the country must adapt urgently. </p>
<p><a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/the-big-picture/introduction">Adaptation</a> means making changes to social, economic and ecological systems to reduce the impact of events like heatwaves. For example, creating <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6458494/">green space in urban areas</a> to provide a cooling effect that reduces the intensity of extreme heat. Yet although the government has just released a new proposal for preparing the UK, as researchers of climate change adaption plans we see too little being done.</p>
<p>Even before the Paris agreement required adaptation plans, the UK had already started to plan adaptation actions under the Climate Change Act 2008. On July 18, as required by law, the UK government released its third <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-sets-out-adaptation-programme-to-tackle-climate-impact">National Adaptation Plan</a> (NAP3), following it being <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/17/new-uk-government-plan-to-protect-against-climate-heat-very-weak">leaked a day early</a>. </p>
<p>The government’s own official advisory body, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), was quick to criticise the plan. The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66148239">chair of the CCC’s adaptation committee</a> said the new publication represented progress on previous plans but “promising further action is not enough […] The scale of the climate impacts we are seeing make clear that resilience to climate change should be a much greater national priority”. These and <a href="https://www.theoep.org.uk/node/895">other critics</a> are right to highlight that too little is being done. </p>
<h2>What risks has the UK identified?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/2019-02/UKCP18%20-%20New%20UK%20Climate%20Projections%20Data_Jason%20Lowe.pdf">Climate change projections</a> indicate that the UK will experience hotter drier summers and warmer wetter winters. This will likely cause more flooding and more heatwaves. These projections have been used by the government to develop the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1047003/climate-change-risk-assessment-2022.pdf">climate change risk assessment</a>, on which national adaptation plans are based. The NAP3 identifies eight priority areas for action, including the risk to health posed by extreme heat, the climate-related failure of power supply and collapse of supply chains.</p>
<p>In order to deal with these risks the UK has planned <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/third-national-adaptation-programme-nap3/understanding-climate-adaptation-and-the-third-national-adaptation-programme-nap3">key actions</a> to protect against extreme heat and flooding from sea level rise and rainfall. For instance one of the highest profile schemes is the Thames Barrier and associated infrastructure, which protects London from flooding. The Environment Agency recently <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/thames-estuary-2100-time-to-plan-and-time-to-act">reported</a> confidence that the scheme was reliable to 2070 but had less confidence this would remain the case for the remainder of the century as the sea level rises. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538746/original/file-20230721-27-vxc08j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Thames Barrier with London skyline in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538746/original/file-20230721-27-vxc08j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538746/original/file-20230721-27-vxc08j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538746/original/file-20230721-27-vxc08j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538746/original/file-20230721-27-vxc08j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538746/original/file-20230721-27-vxc08j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538746/original/file-20230721-27-vxc08j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538746/original/file-20230721-27-vxc08j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Still reliable – for now.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">MarkLG / shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Progress has also been made in building resilience into <a href="https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Ofwats-3rd-Climate-Change-Adaptation-Report.pdf">water supply</a> and <a href="https://www.networkrail.co.uk/sustainability/climate-change/climate-change-adaptation/">transport</a>. However, <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-adapting-to-climate-change-2023-report-to-parliament/#key-messages">insufficient progress</a> has been made in health care, energy supply, telecoms and food supply, both in terms of policy development and action.</p>
<h2>UK adaptation plans</h2>
<p>The NAP3 will provide further structure, compared to previous plans, and delivery will be via an existing governance process. For example, integrating climate change into planning decisions via the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005759/NPPF_July_2021.pdf">National Planning Policy Framework</a>. Changes have also been made to building regulations to include provision for overheating in new buildings. </p>
<p>This is useful, but there is still a significant amount of legacy infrastructure and buildings that are inadequate that are not being fully considered. A recent paper in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01155-z">Nature Sustainability</a> estimated that in the UK there are around 570,000 homes and other buildings, such as hospitals, which are unable to deal with a projected 30% increase in the need for cooling associated with 2°C of global warming. Such buildings will need retrofitting with cooling systems, better ventilation and natural or artificial shading. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538747/original/file-20230721-19-2krwxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Air conditioning units on outside of a building" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538747/original/file-20230721-19-2krwxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538747/original/file-20230721-19-2krwxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538747/original/file-20230721-19-2krwxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538747/original/file-20230721-19-2krwxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538747/original/file-20230721-19-2krwxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538747/original/file-20230721-19-2krwxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538747/original/file-20230721-19-2krwxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Needed: lots more air con.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steve Cuin / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cooling also needs to be considered in conjunction with other approaches such as urban planning, introduction of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1618866720306038?casa_token=-8Pw7den4-IAAAAA:3w2YN34sQrpZ-hVD9DbGSxW94FzA6Jcw_VrN73LuaIP7HjhOrvSecYOcOEYIY8Be7K5KY5Ql4A">non-native, drought tolerant species</a> and development of green infrastructure and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/major-campaign-launched-to-encourage-the-nation-to-love-water">public awareness campaigns</a>. There is, therefore, still much to do.</p>
<p>The UK, like many countries, has numerous frameworks and plans, such as the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/216193/dh_127235.pdf">Heatwave Plan</a>, <a href="https://designatedsites.naturalengland.org.uk/GreenInfrastructure/Home.aspx">Green Infrastructure Framework</a>, and <a href="https://nic.org.uk/studies-reports/infrastructure-progress-review-2023/">National Infrastructure Delivery Plans</a>. These all relate to or consider climate change. The national adaptation plan should, in theory, draw these together into one coherent approach. However, they are not integrated, don’t consider dependencies between sectors and issues and they lack suitable targets.</p>
<p>Adaptation is complex, involving numerous parties at numerous scales from the huge Thames Barrier to a few trees on the road outside your home. It cannot be captured by a <a href="https://www.theoep.org.uk/node/895">single indicator</a>. This lack of targets, and appropriate indicators and data is a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0490-0">key barrier</a> – we sometimes risk not knowing if we’re investing in effective adaptation.</p>
<p>The UK could look elsewhere in Europe for inspiration. One <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-023-00085-1">analysis</a> of adaptation plans for European cities identified Sofia (Bulgaria) and Galway and Dublin (Ireland) as the best quality. In <a href="https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/metadata/case-studies/social-vulnerability-to-heatwaves-2013-from-assessment-to-implementation-of-adaptation-measures-in-kosice-and-trnava-slovakia">Slovakia</a> green infrastructure has been developed in the most socially-vulnerable areas of cities. Or it could look to Gujarat, in India, where <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2018/03/20/adapting-to-climate-change-three-success-stories">district cooling schemes</a> have reduced air pollution and reliance on air conditioning.</p>
<p>National adaptation plans have improved, but those that are actually coordinated at a national level, like in Ireland, are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-023-00085-1">rare</a>. As a result there are still trade offs. For example a reliance on air conditioning for cooling creates more emissions and is not affordable for everyone. </p>
<p>There is much more to be done to adapt to climate change and build resilience to severe heatwaves, floods and other extreme events when they do eventually occur. But it needs more focus and coordination by national governments to avoid significant and costly consequences. </p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new climate adaptation plan leaves experts underwhelmed.Emma Hill, Associate Professor in Energy & Environmental Management, Coventry UniversityBen Vivian, Assistant Professor in Sustainability & Environmental Management, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2075532023-06-25T11:08:20Z2023-06-25T11:08:20Z920 million people could face conflict over the world’s rivers by 2050: what our study found in Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533686/original/file-20230623-21-q74dgb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Blue Nile river passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eduardo Soteras/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/nile-basin-at-a-turning-point-as-ethiopian-dam-starts-operations-178267">Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project</a> on the Nile River started operating in February 2022. It reinforced tensions between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. The three countries rely most heavily on the Nile’s water. Sudan and Egypt consider the US$4.6 billion dam a threat to vital water supplies. Ethiopia sees it as essential for its development.</p>
<p>This is just one example of how conflicts can arise between states that share river basins. And there’s a real risk that such conflicts will become more common as <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-warming-to-bring-record-hot-year-by-2028-probably-our-first-above-1-5-c-limit-205758">global temperatures rise</a>.</p>
<p>Hundreds of rivers are shared between two or more countries. Sharing waters can be a source of cooperation or conflict. This depends on economic, cultural and institutional conditions. It also depends on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-imperialist-past-that-started-dam-politics-between-egypt-sudan-and-ethiopia-156760">historical relations</a> between countries. </p>
<p>Although <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2023/03/tracking-conflict-cooperation-worlds-international-freshwater-resources/">cooperation historically prevails over conflict</a> and large-scale violent international conflicts haven’t happened so far, tensions over water have long existed. They are also <a href="https://climate-diplomacy.org/case-studies/water-conflict-and-cooperation-between-india-and-pakistan">rising</a> in <a href="https://www.international-alert.org/stories/climate-change-trigger-conflicts-border-rivers-central-asia/">several river basins</a>. </p>
<p>Africa has <a href="https://tfddmgmt.github.io/tfdd/map.html">66</a> transboundary river basins. These include the Nile basin, and the Juba–Shebelle and Lake Turkana basins in the Horn of Africa. Conflict risk can rise as populations grow, water use intensifies and the climate changes. </p>
<p>There’s no consensus on the precise mechanisms that fuel conflict in such basins. It is, however, possible to identify basins where risks are projected to compound. This can be done by combining data on conflict risk conditions identified in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S095937801730537X?via%3Dihub">existing literature</a>. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650?scroll=top&needAccess=true&role=tab&aria-labelledby=full-article">a recent study</a> I conducted with three water system researchers from IHE Delft, Utrecht University and Wageningen University & Research, we came up with three possible futures regarding conflict risk in global transboundary river basins. </p>
<p>Our study projects that if nothing substantially changes in how transboundary river basins are managed and with climate change worsening, 920 million people will live in very high to high conflict-risk basins by 2050. </p>
<p>If nations improve water use, strengthen cooperation and do more to prevent or mitigate conflict, this number drops to 536 million. </p>
<p>Water treaties and strong river basin organisations increase the likelihood of long-term, stable cooperation between states. </p>
<h2>Our research</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650?scroll=top&needAccess=true&role=tab&aria-labelledby=full-article">Our study</a> combined projections on the construction of mega-dams and institutional resilience. It looked at hydroclimatic, governance and socio-economic risk factors. Combining these factors provided an idea of the overall conflict risk per transboundary river basin. </p>
<p>We used a broad interpretation of conflict over transboundary water resources. This ranged from accusations and diplomatic tensions to economic sanctions and violent disputes. </p>
<p>A lack of cooperation between countries can lead to a loss of benefits that could arise from joint activities. These include adapting to climate change, protecting the environment and developing socio-economically. Tensions between states over such issues can also spill over into other sectors, compromising regional political or economic relations.</p>
<h2>Our findings</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650?src=recsys">Our results</a> show that under a business-as-usual scenario – where no major changes are made – 920 million people out of the <a href="https://tfddmgmt.github.io/tfdd/map.html">4.4 billion people living in transboundary river basins</a> will live in very high to high conflict-risk basins by 2050. In Africa, this number includes people living in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Niger. It also includes those in Mozambique, Malawi, Benin and Togo.</p>
<p>In the high ambition scenario – which implies improved water use practices and rising institutional resilience – this number decreases to 536 million. The low-ambition scenario implies some improvement in water use efficiency, institutional capacity and governance quality. Under this scenario, 724 million people would be living in very high to high conflict-risk basins by 2050.</p>
<p>Basins in Africa and Asia especially are projected to face high overall risks, since several risks collide here. In Africa, several basins face extra risks like high variability of water flows and limited water availability. There is also a dependence of downstream countries on upstream ones. </p>
<p>The current tensions in the Nile over <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopias-dam-dispute-five-key-reads-about-how-it-started-and-how-it-could-end-187644">Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam</a>, for instance, could escalate when Ethiopia decides to develop several new mega-hydropower dams. Egypt and to a lesser extent Sudan are highly dependent on basin-related water resources. </p>
<h2>What it means</h2>
<p>Our study shows that potentially, 11 more large hydropower dams could be built in the Nile basin. This is based on physical feasibility, energy yield and construction costs. The projection takes into account some restrictions, such as protected natural reserves. </p>
<p>Seven of these dams would be in Ethiopia, and the other four would be in South Sudan. The construction of these dams would be happening alongside rising water shortages, high water dependencies and limited economic resources to deal with water-related risks.</p>
<p>These new dams could worsen regional climate change impacts and water demands, especially when the population and economy are both growing. Although scholars cannot predict when this will occur, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19089-x">a multi-year drought in the Nile basin is inevitable</a>. This would have severe impacts on water allocation. </p>
<p>The prospect of a multi-year drought in parts of the Nile basin requires preparations today. And even if the impact of new dams will be moderate, the perception of risk could affect how Egypt, for instance, makes decisions over shared river cooperation.</p>
<p>Two other large basins – the Juba–Shebelle in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, and the Lake Turkana basin in Kenya and Ethiopia – are projected to face high conflict risk levels. In these two basins, <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/emergency-response-appeal-greater-horn-of-africa">multiple issues</a>, such as local conflict, low human development and limited water availability already collide today. </p>
<p>This may be worsened without additional efforts towards 2050 due to relatively high population growth and climate change impacts – without sufficient resources to adapt. </p>
<p>Even in our high ambition scenario – which implies substantial improvements in water management, overall domestic governance and institutional resilience – the Juba–Shebelle and Lake Turkana basins still face high risks. </p>
<p>The challenges and risks these basins face must be explicitly included in wider plans. For example, when large hydropower dams are built, their operation must not hinder the climate adaptation goals of the wider region.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207553/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophie de Bruin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hundreds of rivers are shared between two or more countries – this could be a source of cooperation or conflict.Sophie de Bruin, Researcher in Environmental Change, Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1999782023-05-08T06:47:10Z2023-05-08T06:47:10ZOur tropical fruits are vulnerable to climate change. Can we make them resilient in time?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524839/original/file-20230508-94623-cet8aw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1421%2C1255&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Emily Rames</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Plants provide almost every calorie of food we eat. Grains like rice, wheat and corn make civilisation possible. For millennia, farmers have bred grains, fruit and vegetable varieties to get larger harvests and plants better able to tolerate different climates. </p>
<p>But climate change is going to bring enormous disruption to the plants we rely on. A hotter world. Drier in some places. Wetter in others. Intensified droughts. More fire. Sudden torrential rain. </p>
<p>We’re going to need plants with even greater resilience. But can it be done? </p>
<p>We believe so. Our team has been working to climate-proof five popular fruits – banana, the single most commonly bought item in supermarkets, as well as pineapple, passionfruit, custard apples and paw paw. We’ve already done this with chickpeas to produce new, more resilient varieties. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524837/original/file-20230508-171112-qeacvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C26%2C3441%2C2302&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="pineapple farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524837/original/file-20230508-171112-qeacvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C26%2C3441%2C2302&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524837/original/file-20230508-171112-qeacvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524837/original/file-20230508-171112-qeacvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524837/original/file-20230508-171112-qeacvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524837/original/file-20230508-171112-qeacvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524837/original/file-20230508-171112-qeacvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524837/original/file-20230508-171112-qeacvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pineapple plants like tropical conditions. Their genomes may hold the secrets of climate resilience.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Garth Sanewski, Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does climate change mean for horticulture?</h2>
<p>Australia, the driest inhabited continent, has already seen weather patterns shift. Droughts have become more severe, heatwaves and fire have intensified, and intense rainfall and floods are more common. In some areas, there’s less winter rainfall, and the ocean temperature is rising. </p>
<p>Fruit and vegetable growing is one of Australia’s most important agricultural sectors, with an annual production value (excluding wine grapes) <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/hort-policy#production">exceeding</a> A$11 billion in 2021–2022. </p>
<p>But this could change. The warping climate and heightened instability make it harder for fruit farmers to plan. </p>
<p>Already, the Australian fruit industry has seen large-scale losses of young fruit trees, or seasons where fruit <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-01/four-seasons-in-one-day-for-queensland-farmers/101601094">develops poorly</a>. </p>
<p>As winters get warmer, we could see lower apple, pear, cherry and nut yields. That’s because these trees usually go dormant during cold periods. If the weather isn’t cold enough, they don’t grow and develop normally. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/farms-are-adapting-well-to-climate-change-but-theres-work-ahead-164860">Farms are adapting well to climate change, but there's work ahead</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can we do?</h2>
<p>Fruit farmers have to play a long game. It takes years for apple tree saplings planted today to begin bearing saleable fruit. </p>
<p>These long times to a payoff can make it hard to respond quickly to climate challenges. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524843/original/file-20230508-40482-po496w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524843/original/file-20230508-40482-po496w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524843/original/file-20230508-40482-po496w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524843/original/file-20230508-40482-po496w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524843/original/file-20230508-40482-po496w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524843/original/file-20230508-40482-po496w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524843/original/file-20230508-40482-po496w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524843/original/file-20230508-40482-po496w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Custard apples are a popular tropical fruit. But they have limits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grant Bignell, Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But there are new methods we are trying. Modern tools such as whole genome sequencing and allele mining are letting us get better at finding how vital traits are coded on a tree’s genome. This, in turn, can help us target traits like drought and heat tolerance which will be valuable in the future. With this knowledge, we can manipulate these genes to get stronger effects, or transfer them to other plants using modern breeding techniques. </p>
<p>We have already used these techniques to <a href="https://phys.org/news/2019-04-breakthrough-high-yield-drought-resilient-chickpeas.html">find genes</a> in chickpeas that code for better drought resistance. Plants with these genes can survive temperatures of up to 38°C and produce better yields to boot. After we isolated these genes, breeders in India and African nations <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/icrisat-develops-3-new-drought-resistant-chickpeas/articleshow/86792826.cms">used this knowledge</a> to produce new, more drought tolerant varieties.</p>
<p>You might think drought tolerance is about retaining water better. Not necessarily. In these new and improved varieties, we see deeper roots, more vigorous growth and better leaf growth. This vigour safeguards their yields under drought stress. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525000/original/file-20230509-213756-i2uj9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="chickpea drought resistant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525000/original/file-20230509-213756-i2uj9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525000/original/file-20230509-213756-i2uj9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525000/original/file-20230509-213756-i2uj9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525000/original/file-20230509-213756-i2uj9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525000/original/file-20230509-213756-i2uj9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525000/original/file-20230509-213756-i2uj9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525000/original/file-20230509-213756-i2uj9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It worked for chickpeas. This image shows lead author Rajeev Varshney with a drought tolerant chickpea variety in Patancheru, India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rajeev Varshney</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now we are using these techniques to mine the genomes of popular tropical fruit such as bananas and pineapples. We want to do the same as for chickpeas: create climate resilient cultivars. </p>
<p>What worked for chickpeas may not work for pawpaw and other fruit species. What we want is to find any characteristics which will boost survival rates in extreme conditions. </p>
<p>What would make these fruit trees and plants resilient to climate change? High tolerance to stress is vital. If you’re a gardener, you’ll know some plants can take a lot of punishment – while others are finicky and can die easily. Finding genes to promote robustness will help. </p>
<p>But there are other genes we’re looking for – those which code for improved yields and better fruit quality. </p>
<p>We are also working on accurate forecasting of climate resilience traits against the predicted changes to climates in our fruit growing regions. We can map the usefulness of these traits for specific regions by statistically testing correlations between different genes and measurements of plant traits. </p>
<p>Once we have greater ability to reliably forecast crop performance, we’ll avoid the long time needed to repeatedly grow and test new cultivars in field conditions and wait for the intense conditions needed to test how they respond. </p>
<p>The climate is changing, rapidly. We need to adapt our food sources just as quickly. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-field-to-store-to-plate-farmers-are-worried-about-climate-change-178885">From field to store to plate, farmers are worried about climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>We are grateful to Vanika Garg, Anu Chitikineni, Robert Henry, Natalie Dillon, David Innes, Rebecca Ford, Parwinder Kaur and Ben Callaghan for their collaboration and support</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199978/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rajeev Varshney receives funding from Hort Innovation Australia for establishing the Advanced Genomics Platform mentioned in this article</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abhishek Bohra receives funding from Hort Innovation Australia </span></em></p>Climate change is bringing heightened droughts, heat stress and floods. For our fruit trees, that means tougher conditions. To prepare means mining their genomes to hunt for resilience.Rajeev Varshney, Professor, Murdoch UniversityAbhishek Bohra, Senior research fellow, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1960382023-02-13T19:13:42Z2023-02-13T19:13:42ZWho moves and who pays? Managed retreat is hard, but lessons from the past can guide us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509637/original/file-20230213-18-o7dz1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5463%2C3628&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the cleanup from the Auckland floods continues, and <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/484143/cyclone-gabrielle-touches-down-in-new-zealand-what-you-need-to-know">Cyclone Gabrielle</a> hits already saturated parts of the North Island, many people and communities are <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/483523/flood-hit-west-auckland-resident-calls-for-urgent-managed-retreat">wondering about the future</a> of their cherished places and homes. </p>
<p>The increasing severity of climate-related disasters, and the vulnerability of <a href="https://www.renews.co.nz/aucklands-rivers-and-wetlands-were-paved-over-now-we-are-paying-for-it/">ageing stormwater infrastructure</a>, are now tangible and visible realities. </p>
<p>With this, the term “managed retreat” has gone from being a specialist one to something discussed much more widely. And with the growing prospect of repeat events, the urgent need for a national managed retreat framework is very much in focus.</p>
<p>The government’s first <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/03/new-zealand-releases-its-first-national-plan-to-protect-against-climate-driven-disasters">National Adaptation Plan</a>, released in August 2022, was lauded as a welcome development in responding to climate change. Central to the plan is the role of managed retreat – the strategic relocation of people, communities, <a href="https://maoridictionary.co.nz/search?keywords=taonga">taonga</a> and assets. </p>
<p>As some commentators have pointed out, however, there is an absence of detail in the plan on the enduring questions of who should move, how they will move, and who pays.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1620988812297121792"}"></div></p>
<h2>Guided by the past</h2>
<p>The Auckland floods came as the government is preparing the first draft of its Climate Adaptation Act, part of the <a href="https://www.mpdc.govt.nz/news/all-news-and-public-notices/3882-rma-reform-and-managing-the-future-impacts-of-climate-change">repeal of the Resource Management Act</a>. This is the next step in a plan to respond to the growing risks from sea level rise and climate-related disasters. </p>
<p>The legislation (in parallel with the National Built Environment and Strategic Planning bills) aims to address the <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/assets/publications/climate-change/MFE-AoG-20664-GF-National-Adaptation-Plan-2022-WEB.pdf">complex issues</a> associated with managed retreats and how to implement them.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-has-launched-a-plan-to-prepare-for-inevitable-climate-change-impacts-5-areas-where-the-hard-work-starts-now-188221">New Zealand has launched a plan to prepare for inevitable climate change impacts: 5 areas where the hard work starts now</a>
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<p>Our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14649357.2022.2141845">recent research</a> suggests a close examination of the past will help guide these difficult decisions. By analysing academic research, government reports and policies, we traced the historical and political context in which managed – and unmanaged – retreats evolved in Aotearoa. </p>
<p>We pieced together why and how retreats gradually evolved, from being reactive and unmanaged towards being a strategic part of our national risk management framework. These insights shed light on why implementation will still be difficult, and they provide lessons for other countries grappling with similar policy options. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1621026730193592321"}"></div></p>
<h2>Communities in limbo</h2>
<p>This journey is not linear. Decision makers and communities have tested different approaches to retreat and have confronted existing science, law and behavioural norms that supported the status quo. These experiences have all been important in making the case for a more anticipatory mindset when making policy. </p>
<p>Our research emphasises that managed retreat only became a mainstream option due to consistent scientific advocacy and shifts in the understanding and application of risk management over decades. It was the result of a long struggle by many committed groups.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flood-warning-nzs-critical-infrastructure-is-too-important-to-fail-greater-resilience-is-urgently-needed-198872">Flood warning: NZ's critical infrastructure is too important to fail – greater resilience is urgently needed</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For communities across Aotearoa, however, support and direction to enable effective managed retreat is still a waiting game. The previous pattern of ad hoc policy experiments, often based on trial and error, only increases the political risks associated with an already delicate undertaking. </p>
<p>This history highlights the toll that an absence of clear policy can take on individuals and communities. The examples we’ve analysed emphasise how retreats can be disruptive, produce inequitable outcomes and sever community ties.</p>
<p>The challenges of managing retreat without supportive policies heighten the political risk for decision makers, which means effective action may be deferred until a national framework is in place. This is particularly difficult for communities already in limbo, at risk, and without a plan for the future.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509640/original/file-20230213-17-27887z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509640/original/file-20230213-17-27887z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509640/original/file-20230213-17-27887z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509640/original/file-20230213-17-27887z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509640/original/file-20230213-17-27887z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509640/original/file-20230213-17-27887z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509640/original/file-20230213-17-27887z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Connections to place: flooding at the historic Okahu Bay cemetery in Auckland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Transformative opportunities</h2>
<p>Importantly, we emphasise that managed retreats encompass more than just physical change. Decisions to live with risk, resist or retreat are shaped by many things. These include different social and cultural relationships to a place, public expectations of state protection or compensation, and data availability. </p>
<p>There are diverse relationships between people, places, land and property. It’s vital that managed retreat processes empower and support communities to make decisions that reflect their specific social, cultural and environmental contexts –
particularly including Te Tiriti o Waitangi and rights to tino-rangatiratanga (self-determination) for Māori land and taonga.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/slippery-slopes-why-the-auckland-storm-caused-so-many-landslides-and-what-can-be-done-about-it-198984">Slippery slopes: why the Auckland storm caused so many landslides – and what can be done about it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Policy development will need to encompass these multifaceted relationships, with flexible approaches tailored to local needs. It is also vital to start a national conversation about the role of permanent property rights and land ownership – and how managed retreat challenges the notion of perpetual property rights in certain locations. </p>
<p>Our historical review highlights the importance of strategic planning and support for communities to mitigate the disruptive impact of managed retreats. The right funding mechanisms that address the potential for inequitable outcomes are also necessary. </p>
<p>Ultimately, planning for managed retreats demands that we reform relationships between communities, place and the environment. This is about more than physical relocation. Managed retreats provide transformative opportunities to unmake and remake space, place and property, but current perceptions of permanence cast a long shadow. </p>
<p>We eagerly await the draft Climate Adaptation Act, and the opportunity for Aotearoa to make better planning decisions for the future. But there is still much work to be done to ensure it can be applied equitably.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raven Cretney receives funding from the Resilience to Nature's Challenges National Science Challenge: Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūro and the Biological Heritage National Science Challenge: Ngā Koiora Tuku Iho.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christina Hanna receives funding from the Aotearoa New Zealand Government National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges – Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa. Christina also receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment's Endeavour Fund to research issues connected to flood risk mapping and better decision making.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain White receives funding from the Aotearoa New Zealand Government National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges – Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa. Iain White also receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment's Endeavour Fund to research issues connected to flood risk mapping and better decision making.</span></em></p>Storms, flooding and other climate-related events highlight the urgent need for a national managed retreat framework. Past experiences suggests it will involve many challenges.Raven Cretney, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of WaikatoChristina Hanna, Lecturer, Environmental Planning, University of WaikatoIain White, Professor of Environmental Planning, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1963892023-01-17T01:11:23Z2023-01-17T01:11:23ZAs heatwaves and floods hit cities worldwide, these places are pioneering solutions<p>Climate change is going just as badly for cities as we have been warned it would. Extreme weather is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/16/devastating-floods-in-nigeria-were-80-times-more-likely-because-of-climate-crisis">increasingly common</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61242341">severe</a> globally. Australian cities have endured <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/03/21/australia-extreme-heat-threatens-lives">a number</a> of recent <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/floods-cost-economy-5-billion-last-year-20230112-p5cc1t.html">disastrous events</a>. </p>
<p>It’ll get worse, too. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_HumanSettlements.pdf">factsheet</a> outlining impacts on human settlements is a very sobering read. It also pithily sums up the situation cities face:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Concentrated risk and concentrated opportunity for action.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Implicit in this wording is a hopeful truth: adapting to climate change is a daunting task, but the “how” is not a mystery. The opportunity is right in front of us, in our streets, buildings and parklands. Around the world we are seeing effective retrofitting of cities to adapt to more extreme weather. </p>
<p>Here are a few inspiring exemplars. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-climate-scientist-on-the-planets-simultaneous-disasters-from-pakistans-horror-floods-to-europes-record-drought-189626">A climate scientist on the planet's simultaneous disasters, from Pakistan’s horror floods to Europe’s record drought</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Keeping the city cool</h2>
<p>Planting trees to create shade is an obvious response to hot weather. However, in many cities it’s still a <a href="https://theconversation.com/thousands-of-city-trees-have-been-lost-to-development-when-we-need-them-more-than-ever-132356">struggle just to stop the losses of trees</a>. Future hot, dry climates will <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-threatens-up-to-100-of-trees-in-australian-cities-and-most-urban-species-worldwide-188807">add to the challenge</a> of urban greening. </p>
<p>Medellin in Colombia is one city making inspiring progress on this front. With an urban greening budget of US$16.3 million, it has created a network of 30 “<a href="https://www.c40knowledgehub.org/s/article/Cities100-Medellin-s-interconnected-green-corridors?language=en_US">green corridors</a>” through the city. These have reduced urban heat island effects by 2°C three years into the program. As these densely vegetated corridors mature, they are expected to eventually deliver 4-5°C of cooling. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503937/original/file-20230111-12-lxrzxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503937/original/file-20230111-12-lxrzxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503937/original/file-20230111-12-lxrzxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503937/original/file-20230111-12-lxrzxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503937/original/file-20230111-12-lxrzxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503937/original/file-20230111-12-lxrzxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503937/original/file-20230111-12-lxrzxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of Medellin’s 30 green corridors with dense tree and understorey plantings runs along La Playa Avenue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-threatens-up-to-100-of-trees-in-australian-cities-and-most-urban-species-worldwide-188807">Climate change threatens up to 100% of trees in Australian cities, and most urban species worldwide</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Vienna, Austria, has had an <a href="https://www.wien.gv.at/umweltschutz/raum/uhi-strategieplan.html">urban heat island strategy</a> in place since 2018. It includes planting 4,500 trees each year and <a href="https://www.wien.gv.at/amtshelfer/umwelt/umweltschutz/naturschutz/fassadenbegruenung.html">subsidies</a> for street-facing green walls.</p>
<p>The city has developed a series of “<a href="https://www.wien.gv.at/verkehr/strassen/coole-strassen-plus.html">cool streets</a>” – traffic-calmed spaces with light-coloured road surfaces, “fog showers” that activate on hot days, water features, shade trees and drinking fountains. Eighteen cool streets were delivered as pop-ups, with another four in place permanently to provide refuges on hot days. Vienna also has an extensive network of <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/cities-save-lives-heat-wave-green-vienna-paris-nuremberg-madrid/">public swimming pools</a> where residents can cool off. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503942/original/file-20230111-24-nqlofo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Park with trees and fountains" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503942/original/file-20230111-24-nqlofo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503942/original/file-20230111-24-nqlofo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503942/original/file-20230111-24-nqlofo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503942/original/file-20230111-24-nqlofo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503942/original/file-20230111-24-nqlofo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503942/original/file-20230111-24-nqlofo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503942/original/file-20230111-24-nqlofo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Esterhazy park was redesigned in 2020 as Vienna’s first ‘cooling park’, with mist sprays lowering the temperature on hot days.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.wien.gv.at/presse/bilder/2020/04/26/20191106_est_lo_schaubild-1_coolspot-c-carla-lo-jpg">Carla Lo/City of Vienna</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Limiting flood damage</h2>
<p>Urban green space can also be valuable for intercepting and absorbing stormwater to prevent flooding. </p>
<p>A spectacular example is <a href="https://www.governmentarchitect.nsw.gov.au/resources/case-studies/2017/11/bishan-ang-mo-kio-park">Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park</a> in Singapore. It was the site of a concrete drainage canal that was transformed into a 3.2km winding stream in 2012. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-KLtr-vKmDw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Bishan Park has become one of Singapore’s most popular parks since a utilitarian concrete channel was transformed into a naturalised river landscape.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 62-hectare park along the gently sloping banks of the stream serves a densely developed residential area. In wet conditions, the stream swells up to 100 metres wide. As stormwater gently flows downstream, it drains away into the landscape. </p>
<p>Since the park was created, visitor numbers have doubled to 6 million a year. Biodiversity has increased 30%. </p>
<p>A very urban version of this approach is the “floodable square”. A good example is Rotterdam’s <a href="https://www.urbanisten.nl/work/benthemplein">Watersquare Benthemplein</a>, a sunken public plaza and basketball court that becomes a major stormwater basin when it rains. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Stairs surround a sunken city plaza being used by people to play with a basketball" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503956/original/file-20230111-12-yrdh2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503956/original/file-20230111-12-yrdh2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503956/original/file-20230111-12-yrdh2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503956/original/file-20230111-12-yrdh2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503956/original/file-20230111-12-yrdh2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503956/original/file-20230111-12-yrdh2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503956/original/file-20230111-12-yrdh2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Benthemplein has a series of pools that fill after heavy rain, connected by channels that control stormwater flows through the city.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/michiel_brouwer_mbdso/51993158378/in/photolist-27aTqmw-GhbMZ4-eQQZdK-eQQZya-eR3n8E-eR3npA-fKTZjT-fKU1wa-o8E5ZP-27aTpQb-L8pii5-2ndv1Lx-2ndv22x-2ndswz9-JBpukH-26W1iVr-GhbN4H-icFdha-JDH7Bz-icFPqp-icFpP9-23HFwHQ-LaJm9L-icFBBf-icFdSi-FmJLdN-27db6sU-25xB4tb-2ndswuK-2ndn5P5-2ndsd37-2ndn5VC-FmJLc5-2ndtCwy-G95RG1-2ndsd5X-2ndsd5g-23HFwMN-GhexKg-2jxVsTR-28ekcH5-28ek7nf-LaJpfq-sa3TUk-2nwTxCE-2nwTxxV-26pQc1m-2jxS6De-2jxVkQY-25ozXDf">Michiel Brouwer/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While this approach is a win-win on large development sites, it can be tricky to retrofit built-up areas. Fortunately, there are many more compact approaches that can deliver large benefits when delivered at scale. </p>
<p>New York City, for example, has spent over US$1 billion on <a href="https://www.nyc.gov/site/dep/water/types-of-green-infrastructure.page">smaller, distributed solutions</a> in flood-prone streets. These measures include “raingardens” that drain water from streets, and infiltration basins that divert and store stormwater. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Women walks past a kerbside raingarden" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503957/original/file-20230111-24-32zsaz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503957/original/file-20230111-24-32zsaz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503957/original/file-20230111-24-32zsaz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503957/original/file-20230111-24-32zsaz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503957/original/file-20230111-24-32zsaz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503957/original/file-20230111-24-32zsaz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503957/original/file-20230111-24-32zsaz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Raingardens like this one in Brooklyn, New York, divert water from hard surfaces, so it sinks into the soil instead of overloading drains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Right_of_Way_Bioswale.jpg">Chris Hamsby/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-if-but-when-city-planners-need-to-design-for-flooding-these-examples-show-the-way-157578">Not 'if', but 'when': city planners need to design for flooding. These examples show the way</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Green roofs that capture rainwater also help reduce flood risk in built-up areas. Again, Rotterdam’s approach is interesting; while reducing stormwater flows is a focus, the city’s rooftop greening program focuses on <a href="https://www.rotterdam.nl/en/multifunctional-roofs">multifunctionality</a> by integrating solar panels, social spaces and rooftop farming. The retrofitted “<a href="https://dakakker.nl/site/?lang=en">Dakakker</a>” (rooftop farm) has advanced stormwater storage, vegetable beds, beehives, a few chickens and a popular café.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="rooftop farm with cafe on top of office block" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503962/original/file-20230111-24-diuhdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503962/original/file-20230111-24-diuhdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503962/original/file-20230111-24-diuhdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503962/original/file-20230111-24-diuhdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503962/original/file-20230111-24-diuhdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503962/original/file-20230111-24-diuhdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503962/original/file-20230111-24-diuhdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rotterdam’s ‘Dakakker’ inspired a large rooftop greening program.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of course, a green roof program usually requires private building owners to get on board. Rotterdam <a href="https://www.rotterdam.nl/subsidie-klimaatadaptatie">subsidises</a> owners who deliver rooftop greening that intercepts significant amounts of stormwater. In 2021, Rotterdam had <a href="https://www.rotterdam.nl/groene-daken">46 hectares</a> of green roofs, equating to around 0.5 square metres per resident. </p>
<p>The Swiss city of Basel leads the world with <a href="https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/metadata/case-studies/green-roofs-in-basel-switzerland-combining-mitigation-and-adaptation-measures-1">5.7m² of green roofs per person</a> (as of 2019). Basel has had incentives as well as laws requiring green roofs <a href="https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/metadata/case-studies/green-roofs-in-basel-switzerland-combining-mitigation-and-adaptation-measures-1">since the late 1990s</a>; this highlights the value of putting regulations in place early. </p>
<p>The principle seems to work for bigger cities too: Tokyo has mandated green roofs since 2000, and has around <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00267-022-01625-8">250ha of them</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="rooftop gardens on multistorey city buildings" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503963/original/file-20230111-4890-vqkwcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503963/original/file-20230111-4890-vqkwcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503963/original/file-20230111-4890-vqkwcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503963/original/file-20230111-4890-vqkwcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503963/original/file-20230111-4890-vqkwcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503963/original/file-20230111-4890-vqkwcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503963/original/file-20230111-4890-vqkwcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tokyo has about 250 hectares of green roofs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/rachidh/18135820243/in/photolist-o7AoEk-nQpqir-o9FqCt-nQpaRw-o5RGLC-nQpD3W-nQqbYX-o7NbS9-o5RrKf-o7AYjK-gLsqh5-gLsmQY-gLsBDp-gLssNE-gLtsvF-gLsGj6-gLsv15-gLtvBF-gLsDCf-gLtzDi-o7LBAJ-gLskhC-oh9RKT-tCANGR-5L1NKC-k5GGJ-gLsno9-tCAPvV-ux8bHq-2xZHqt-77MrzT-4HLSvc-5bhUu1-4HLSsM-nS4NQ-7B5WWw-4HLSmc-4HR85s-eb8a7G-9r9RX2-5LQj9B-di8Bz-8rf7vH-uzrXPD-77qh7S-4HR73S-9d22FQ-S8APVH-5b1soy-3hHJgV">Rachid H/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/greening-our-grey-cities-heres-how-green-roofs-and-walls-can-flourish-in-australia-139478">Greening our grey cities: here's how green roofs and walls can flourish in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What does this mean for Australia?</h2>
<p>Our cities remain woefully unprepared for extreme weather. But many of the above approaches are starting to crop up in Australia. The challenge is to move from a handful of trials to a large-scale, systematic roll out of infrastructure to adapt our cities to climate change.</p>
<p>The experience of the cities profiled above points to a few crucial ingredients. </p>
<p>First, cities must be willing to invest heavily, both in new green spaces and in subsidies to encourage greening by private property owners. </p>
<p>Second, reallocation of existing grey space, like roads and canals, must be pursued fearlessly and systematically. Paris’s elected mayor since 2014, Anne Hidalgo, is a spectacular example of the <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/anne-hidalgo-paris-mayor-urban-revolution/">political courage</a> required for <a href="https://www.timeout.com/paris/en/things-to-do/paris-green-sustainable-city-plan-2030">large-scale greening</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VfhAdD4Cvsc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The mayor of Paris has announced plans to turn the Champs-Élysées into an ‘extraordinary garden’.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Third, the law can play a real role in guiding development, through measures such as mandating greening on buildings. This can be achieved through fairly simple tools like Toyko’s green roof requirement, or more sophisticated area-based instruments that require a portion of a development to have green walls and/or roofs. Cities like <a href="https://www.seattle.gov/sdci/codes/codes-we-enforce-(a-z)/seattle-green-factor">Seattle</a> and <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/planning-and-building/urban-design-in-brisbane/design-strategy-and-guidelines/brisbane-green-buildings-incentive-policy">Brisbane</a> are using these tools, which are also being mooted in <a href="https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/community/greening-the-city/green-infrastructure/Pages/green-factor-tool.aspx">Melbourne</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/melbourne-now-has-chief-heat-officers-heres-why-we-need-them-and-what-they-can-do-192248">Melbourne now has chief heat officers. Here's why we need them and what they can do</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Recent disasters have made clear the urgent need to step up urban climate adaptation. The costs of not acting decisively to protect ourselves and our cities will be considerable, but the playbook is ready for us.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196389/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thami Croeser receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the European Comission.</span></em></p>Australian cities remain woefully unprepared for the more extreme weather we are already seeing with climate change. But some cities overseas stand out for having developed readymade solutions.Thami Croeser, Research Officer, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1973652023-01-11T12:32:48Z2023-01-11T12:32:48ZFour ways winter heatwaves affect humans and nature<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503866/original/file-20230110-16-wz5qlu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C81%2C1301%2C877&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Temperature anomaly in Europe, Jan 1. Much of the continent was 10°C or more (dark red and grey) above the long-term average.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/1608475633335824387">WX Charts</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>An extreme winter heatwave meant countries across Europe experienced a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/01/02/record-warm-new-year-europe/">record-breaking New Year’s Day</a>. New daily temperature records for the month of January were set in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/02/extreme-event-warm-january-weather-breaks-records-europe">at least eight countries</a>: Belarus, Czechia, Denmark, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Netherlands and Poland. </p>
<p>In many cases the temperatures were not just breaking the old highs, but smashing them by massive margins. On a typical January day in Warsaw, Poland, temperatures would barely go above freezing, yet the city recently experienced 19°C, breaking the <a href="https://www.imgw.pl/wydarzenia/wyjatkowo-cieply-przelom-roku">previous January high by 5.1°C</a>. </p>
<p>New January records were set at thousands of individual stations in many other countries such as <a href="https://twitter.com/meteodelnorte/status/1609634546403901441">25.1°C at Bilbao airport in Spain</a>, 0.7°C hotter than the previous record set only last year. Large areas of central and Eastern Europe experienced temperatures 10°C to 15°C warmer than average for this time of year – and that has persisted through the week.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1609872364803657728"}"></div></p>
<p>When Europe experienced extreme heat in July of last year, more than <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2022/11/24/20000-died-amid-punishing-heatwaves-and-record-temperatures-across-western-europe-this-summer-data-indicates/?sh=1bc6d5c96ab8">20,000 died</a>. Fortunately winter heatwaves are much less deadly, but they can still affect both human society and natural ecosystems in many ways. </p>
<h2>1. Less energy is needed</h2>
<p>In Europe deaths due to cold weather vastly outweigh those caused by extreme high temperatures – in the UK there are <a href="https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2022/both-heat-and-cold-increase-risk-death-england-and-wales-rates-vary-across#:%7E:text=Heat%252Drelated%2520risks%2520were%2520also,deaths%2520per%2520100%252C000%2520people%252C%2520respectively">ten times more</a>. Warmer winters will reduce this excess mortality and, with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-economy-2023-how-countries-around-the-world-are-tackling-the-cost-of-living-crisis-196740">current cost-of-living crisis</a>, many will have been relieved that a heatwave meant less energy was needed to heat their homes.</p>
<p>Electricity demand is influenced by things like the time of day, the day of the week and socio-economic factors like the COVID pandemic or <a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-energy-war-putins-unpredictable-actions-and-looming-sanctions-could-further-disrupt-oil-and-gas-markets-190227">the war in Ukraine</a>. The weather also makes a difference. For example, in Poland and the Netherlands demand was noticeably lower than average, especially since January 1 was a Sunday. The extent of the heatwave also meant countries could refill some of their winter <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-63707463">gas reserves, or large batteries</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503883/original/file-20230110-21-9jhiur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503883/original/file-20230110-21-9jhiur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503883/original/file-20230110-21-9jhiur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=180&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503883/original/file-20230110-21-9jhiur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=180&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503883/original/file-20230110-21-9jhiur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=180&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503883/original/file-20230110-21-9jhiur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=226&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503883/original/file-20230110-21-9jhiur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=226&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503883/original/file-20230110-21-9jhiur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=226&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Energy consumption in Poland December 28 to January 5. The red line shows the 2022-2023 heatwave period, and the grey lines show available data from 2015-2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hannah Bloomfield / data: transparency.entsoe.eu</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Reduced yields for some crops</h2>
<p>Winter warm spells don’t always have such a positive impact though. For instance a lack of snow in the mountains affects agriculture and can reduce crop yield, since snow creates an insulating blanket that prevents frost from penetrating into the soil. This means snow can actually <a href="https://metos.at/impact-of-snow-and-cold-on-wheat-production/#:%7E:text=Snow%20can%20act%20as%20an,soil%20moisture%20when%20it%20melts.">increase soil moisture</a> more than rainfall, thus improving growing conditions later in the season. </p>
<p>The big snow melt in spring time replenishes reservoirs and allows <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/7/2011">hydroelectricity generation</a>, but unexpected snow melt can <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/27/uk-flood-alert-rain-snow">lead to flooding</a>. Changes to the timings of these events will require preparation and adaptation to enable a steady supply of water to where we need it. </p>
<p>Warmer temperatures will create longer growing seasons in many regions. This is not always the case though. A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-35194-5">recent study</a> showed that for alpine grasslands an earlier growing season (the point when snow has melted entirely) leads to ageing and browning of the grasses in the later part of the summer.</p>
<h2>3. The snow economy is in trouble</h2>
<p>The heatwave caused ski resorts across the Alps to close in what should be their busiest time of year. In January the slopes would be expected to have a good covering of snow – but instead we saw green grassy fields. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1611724606380933121"}"></div></p>
<p>This hits the local economy where many people rely on winter sports tourism. Events such as the Adelboden alpine ski World Cup are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64151166">relying on artificial snow</a>, which comes with a further environmental cost increasing the carbon footprint of ski resorts and requiring a large water supply. Indeed, the Beijing winter Olympics <a href="https://www.insider.com/beijing-olympics-artificial-snow-costs-days-drinking-water-900-million-2022-2#:%7E:text=The%2520Olympics'%2520artificial%2520snow%2520requires,water%2520for%2520900%2520million%2520people.">used the equivalent</a> of daily drinking water for 900 million people to generate the artificial snow it required.</p>
<h2>4. Animals out of sync with the climate</h2>
<p>We humans are perhaps fortunate, as we are able to adapt. Some ski resorts have already <a href="https://singletrackworld.com/2023/01/les-gets-lifts-open-for-mountain-biking-in-january/">opened mountain bike trails</a> in winter to offer alternative tourism, but wildlife and ecosystems cannot adjust so rapidly. </p>
<p>In the mountains many species, such as ptarmigan and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/16/mountain-hares-at-risk-as-winter-coats-fail-to-camouflage-in-snowless-scottish-highlands">mountain hares</a>, change their colouring for winter to camouflage in the white snow. The timing of this change is determined by length of day – not the temperature or amount of snow. These creatures are at greater risk of being preyed on when it is warmer.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503892/original/file-20230110-25-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="White rabbit, brown background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503892/original/file-20230110-25-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503892/original/file-20230110-25-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503892/original/file-20230110-25-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503892/original/file-20230110-25-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503892/original/file-20230110-25-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503892/original/file-20230110-25-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503892/original/file-20230110-25-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mountain hares are dressed for a climate that has changed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Medcalf / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over the past century heat extremes in Europe have increased in <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter11.pdf">intensity and frequency</a>. Both the <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/climate-change-drives-uks-first-year-over-10c">general warming</a> and <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/without-human-caused-climate-change-temperatures-of-40c-in-the-uk-would-have-been-extremely-unlikely/">heatwave events</a> have been firmly attributed to humans. </p>
<p>Future projections suggest these trends will continue and heatwaves in both summer and winter will get hotter, last longer, and occur more often. We need to learn to adapt for these changes in all seasons and think about the impacts on everyone – and everything – on our planet.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 10,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vikki Thompson receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Bloomfield receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council as part of the UK Centre for Greening Finance and Investment (NERC CGFI Grant Number NE/V017756/1). She is also a Royal Meteorological Society Science Engagement Fellow. </span></em></p>Europe’s recent heatwave was one of the most severe ever.Vikki Thompson, Senior Research Associate in Geographical Sciences, University of BristolHannah Bloomfield, Postdoctoral Researcher in Climate Risk Analytics, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1951002023-01-09T19:08:21Z2023-01-09T19:08:21ZWhy Pacific Islanders are staying put even as rising seas flood their homes and crops<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498419/original/file-20221201-12-72dv5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C186%2C4160%2C2771&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo: Merawalesi Yee</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is forcing people around the world to abandon their homes. In the Pacific Islands, rising sea levels are leaving communities facing tough decisions about relocation. Some are choosing to stay in high-risk areas.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.1034765/full">Our research</a> investigated this phenomenon, known as “voluntary immobility”.</p>
<p>The government of Fiji has identified around <a href="https://www.adaptationcommunity.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Overview-Fijis-Response-to-HMCCC-2019.pdf">800 communities</a> that may have to relocate due to climate change impacts (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/08/how-to-move-a-country-fiji-radical-plan-escape-rising-seas-climate-crisis">six</a> have already been moved). One of these is the village on Serua Island, which was the focus of our study. </p>
<p>Coastal erosion and flooding have severely damaged the village over the past two decades. Homes have been submerged, seawater has spoiled food crops and the seawall has been destroyed. Despite this, almost all of Serua Island’s residents are choosing to stay.</p>
<p>We found their decision is based on “Vanua”, an Indigenous Fijian word that refers to the interconnectedness of the natural environment, social bonds, ways of being, spirituality and stewardship of place. Vanua binds local communities to their land.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Waves submerge a house" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498821/original/file-20221204-55824-yy2py5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498821/original/file-20221204-55824-yy2py5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=688&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498821/original/file-20221204-55824-yy2py5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=688&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498821/original/file-20221204-55824-yy2py5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=688&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498821/original/file-20221204-55824-yy2py5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=865&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498821/original/file-20221204-55824-yy2py5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=865&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498821/original/file-20221204-55824-yy2py5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=865&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A house on Serua Island is submerged by seawater.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo: Serua Island resident</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-forced-these-fijian-communities-to-move-and-with-80-more-at-risk-heres-what-they-learned-116178">Climate change forced these Fijian communities to move – and with 80 more at risk, here's what they learned</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Residents feel an obligation to stay</h2>
<p>Serua Island has historical importance. It is the traditional residence of the paramount chief of Serua province. </p>
<p>The island’s residents choose to remain because of their deep-rooted connections, to act as guardians and to meet their customary obligations to sustain a place of profound cultural importance. As one resident explained:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Our forefathers chose to live and remain on the island just so they could be close to our chief.”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498410/original/file-20221201-20-30j1mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498410/original/file-20221201-20-30j1mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=280&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498410/original/file-20221201-20-30j1mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=280&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498410/original/file-20221201-20-30j1mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=280&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498410/original/file-20221201-20-30j1mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498410/original/file-20221201-20-30j1mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498410/original/file-20221201-20-30j1mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sau Tabu is the burial site of the paramount chiefs of Serua.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo: Merewalesi Yee</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The link to ancestors is a vital part of life on Serua Island. Every family has a foundation stone upon which their ancestors built their house. One resident told us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“In the past, when a foundation of a home is created, they name it, and that is where our ancestors were buried as well. Their bones, sweat, tears, hard work [are] all buried in the foundation.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Many believe the disturbance of the foundation stone will bring misfortune to their relatives or to other members of their village.</p>
<p>The ocean that separates Serua Island from Fiji’s main island, Viti Levu, is also part of the identity of men and women of Serua. One man said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“When you have walked to the island, that means you have finally stepped foot on Serua. Visitors to the island may find this a challenging way to get there. However, for us, travelling this body of water daily is the essence of a being Serua Islander.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The ocean is a source of food and income, and a place of belonging. One woman said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The ocean is part of me and sustains me – we gauge when to go and when to return according to the tide.”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498413/original/file-20221201-16-byel1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498413/original/file-20221201-16-byel1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498413/original/file-20221201-16-byel1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498413/original/file-20221201-16-byel1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498413/original/file-20221201-16-byel1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498413/original/file-20221201-16-byel1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498413/original/file-20221201-16-byel1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The sea crossing that separates Serua Island from Viti Levu is part of the islanders’ identity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo: Merewalesi Yee</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Serua Islanders are concerned that relocating to Viti Levu would disrupt the bond they have with their chief, sacred sites and the ocean. They fear relocation would lead to loss of their identity, cultural practices and place attachment. As one villager said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“It may be difficult for an outsider to understand this process because it entails much more than simply giving up material possessions.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If residents had to relocate due to climate change, it would be a last resort. Residents are keenly aware it would mean disrupting – or losing – not just material assets such as foundation stones, but sacred sites, a way of life and Indigenous knowledge. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-entire-pacific-country-will-upload-itself-to-the-metaverse-its-a-desperate-plan-with-a-hidden-message-194728">An entire Pacific country will upload itself to the metaverse. It's a desperate plan – with a hidden message</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Voluntary immobility is a global phenomenon</h2>
<p>As climate tipping points are reached and harms escalate, humans must adapt. Yet even in places where relocation is proposed as a last resort, people may prefer to remain. </p>
<p>Voluntary immobility is not unique to Fiji. Around the world, households and communities are choosing to stay where climate risks are increasing or already high. Reasons include access to livelihoods, place-based connections, social bonds and differing risk perceptions.</p>
<p>As Australia faces climate-related hazards and disasters, such as floods and bushfires, people living in places of risk will need to consider whether to remain or move. This decision raises complex legal, financial and logistical issues. As with residents of Serua Island, it also raises important questions about the value that people ascribe to their connections to place.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/I4ZH63d62ro?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Serua Island is one of about 800 communities in Fiji being forced to consider the prospect of relocation.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coastal-property-prices-and-climate-risks-are-both-soaring-we-must-pull-our-heads-out-of-the-sand-195357">Coastal property prices and climate risks are both soaring. We must pull our heads out of the sand</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A decision for communities to make themselves</h2>
<p>Relocation and retreat are not a panacea for climate risk in vulnerable locations. In many cases, people prefer to adapt in place and protect at-risk areas.</p>
<p>No climate adaptation policy should be decided without the full and direct participation of the affected local people and communities. Relocation programs should be culturally appropriate and align with local needs, and proceed only with the consent of residents. </p>
<p>In places where residents are unwilling to relocate, it is crucial to acknowledge and, where feasible, support their decision to stay. And people require relevant information on the risks and potential consequences of both staying and relocating.</p>
<p>This can help develop more appropriate adaptation strategies for communities in Fiji and beyond as people move home, but also resist relocation, in a warming world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195100/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Celia McMichael receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen E McNamara receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Australian Government, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Vanuatu Government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annah Piggott-McKellar and Merewalesi Yee do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Residents are living with the impacts of climate change and know it’s happening. But leaving their homes would strike at the heart of their identity.Merewalesi Yee, PhD Candidate, School of Earth and Environment Sciences, The University of QueenslandAnnah Piggott-McKellar, Research Fellow, School of Architecture and Built Environment, Queensland University of TechnologyCelia McMichael, Senior Lecturer in Geography, The University of MelbourneKaren E McNamara, Associate Professor, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1969342022-12-21T19:12:11Z2022-12-21T19:12:11ZEvery Australian will be touched by climate change. So let’s start a national conversation about how we’ll cope<p>In an <a href="https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/ClareONeil/Pages/national-press-club-address.aspx">address</a> to the National Press Club this month, Home Affairs Minister Clare O'Neil expressed deep concern about the national security implications of climate change. </p>
<p>“When Home Affairs was created, the discussion about climate change and national security was largely academic. Indeed, it was derided by the former government,” O'Neil said. “Just five years on, climate change is a recognised, growing part of Australia’s national security picture.”</p>
<p>Such a grave threat requires a flexible, nuanced and comprehensive national response. It should recognise the complex risks associated with cascading natural disasters, and draw on the knowledge and experience of all Australians.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="fire truck parked as firefighters battle blaze" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502301/original/file-20221221-11-kzutvn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C50%2C6699%2C4416&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502301/original/file-20221221-11-kzutvn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502301/original/file-20221221-11-kzutvn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502301/original/file-20221221-11-kzutvn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502301/original/file-20221221-11-kzutvn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502301/original/file-20221221-11-kzutvn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502301/original/file-20221221-11-kzutvn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change, and associated disasters such as bushfires, are a national security threat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sean Davey/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A confronting reality</h2>
<p>In her address, O'Neil said climate change posed a number of threats to the region. In particular, she said Australia and its neighbours were vulnerable to “massive movements of people that may become unmanageable” – especially if they occur alongside food and energy shortages.</p>
<p>The increased frequency of natural disasters were, O'Neil said, “a hugely consuming exercise for government and the community” which, in itself, posed a national security risk.</p>
<p>The Albanese government has sought to better understand the security threats posed by the climate crisis. One of its first acts of government was to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/22/anthony-albanese-to-order-intelligence-chief-to-examine-security-threats-posed-by-climate-crisis">commission</a> a climate risk assessment from the Office of National Intelligence.</p>
<p>The findings are classified. But recent <a href="https://ad-aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/2021-04/Emerging%20crisis%20FINAL.pdf?VersionId=2O0z1B.klAgJBbQzB6YnxVE__AHmzIbE">analyses</a>, including by the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>, suggest the content is likely to be deeply confronting.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="blonde woman in red jacket speaks at lectern" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502304/original/file-20221221-26-ws5fwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502304/original/file-20221221-26-ws5fwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502304/original/file-20221221-26-ws5fwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502304/original/file-20221221-26-ws5fwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502304/original/file-20221221-26-ws5fwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502304/original/file-20221221-26-ws5fwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502304/original/file-20221221-26-ws5fwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Home Affairs Minister Clare O'Neil said climate change will trigger ‘massive movements of people’ in the region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>We need a better plan</h2>
<p>Assessing looming climate risks is important – but it won’t be enough. The government must urgently develop a comprehensive, well-informed and fair plan to reduce the risks, by adapting to climate change.</p>
<p>Australia does have a <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/policy/adaptation/strategy">National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy</a>, released by the Morrison government in October last year. But the strategy has several shortcomings.</p>
<p>For instance, it fails to take account of emerging complex risks such as important connections between international and domestic climate impacts. O'Neil’s address recognised these risks, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Imagine a future January, where we see a Black Saturday-size bushfire in the southeast, a major flood in the north, then overlay a cyberattack on a major hospital system in the west. Our country would be fully absorbed in the management of domestic crises. Then consider how capable we would be of engaging with a security issue in our region.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A revised national adaptation strategy would recognise and prepare for these complex risks.</p>
<p>Australia’s current adaptation plan calls for a national assessment of climate impacts and progress on adaptation measures. But it doesn’t contain a mechanism to ensure this happens, nor did it state how often the assessments should occur. A well-designed evaluation plan would rectify this.</p>
<p>The Morrison government claimed its strategy was informed by public and expert engagement. But these discussions should <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">not just be a one-off</a>. The process should be ongoing, enabling us to improve as we go.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-taken-a-new-climate-adaptation-blueprint-to-glasgow-its-a-good-start-but-we-need-money-and-detail-170879">Australia has taken a new climate adaptation blueprint to Glasgow. It's a good start but we need money and detail</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Defence force personnel move sandbags" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502300/original/file-20221221-20-n138xs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C2%2C1908%2C1273&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502300/original/file-20221221-20-n138xs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502300/original/file-20221221-20-n138xs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502300/original/file-20221221-20-n138xs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502300/original/file-20221221-20-n138xs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502300/original/file-20221221-20-n138xs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502300/original/file-20221221-20-n138xs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As Australia manages domestic climate crises, we may struggle to engage with a security issue in the region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Diego Fedele/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A true national dialogue</h2>
<p>National security reports – such as that the federal government commissioned on climate risk – should remain classified. But Australia’s overall climate responses will be less efficient, effective and equitable if only developed behind closed doors in the conference rooms of government departments.</p>
<p>Climate change will increasingly affect every Australian. It will require a whole-of-society response, bringing to bear the knowledge and resources of all. </p>
<p>A major dialogue across Australia – under the banner of national action on climate adaptation – could be a game-changer. It should have three main objectives. </p>
<p>First, it should educate the public about climate challenges ahead. This includes sharing an unclassified version of the climate risk assessment. This authoritative document would counteract other <a href="https://www.isdglobal.org/isd-publications/deny-deceive-delay-documenting-and-responding-to-climate-disinformation-at-cop26-and-beyond-full/">dubious</a> sources of information.</p>
<p>Second, the dialogue should collect examples of innovative climate adaptation from across the country. Many inspiring initiatives are underway in the private sector, civil society organisations and local government, as well as by individuals. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-finally-acknowledged-climate-change-is-a-national-security-threat-here-are-5-mistakes-to-avoid-186458">Australia's finally acknowledged climate change is a national security threat. Here are 5 mistakes to avoid</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Every region in Queensland, for example, now has a locally led “<a href="https://www.qra.qld.gov.au/regional-resilience-strategies">resilience strategy</a>” outlining anticipated hazards and how they will be addressed.</p>
<p>Similarly, many farmers across Australia are using <a href="https://farmersforclimateaction.org.au/climate-smart-agriculture-toolkit/">climate-smart practices</a> that adapt farming systems to the changing climate. This reduces risk, increases crop and livestock production and cuts greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Third, the dialogue should engage the public in identifying responses to challenges identified in the risk assessment. The “wisdom of the crowd” is generally overlooked and underappreciated by governments. But engaging the public can help identify important responses to climate risks that would otherwise be overlooked.</p>
<p>A project by the Australian National University (ANU) is doing just this. It is partnering with stakeholders in river catchments around Australia to identify <a href="https://iceds.anu.edu.au/research/research-stories/anu-partners-regional-communities-flood-solutions">nature-based solutions</a> to climate-related flooding.</p>
<p>The ANU is also co-leading an initiative around <a href="https://www.echo.net.au/2022/10/team-kriegs-floodplain-risk-management-committee-in-lismore/">Lismore</a> to develop citizen-based data collection and communication on rain and creek levels in upper catchment areas. This will provide timely information to communities downstream so they can respond when floods are imminent.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man stands on dry, cracked earth" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502310/original/file-20221221-22-we63n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502310/original/file-20221221-22-we63n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502310/original/file-20221221-22-we63n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502310/original/file-20221221-22-we63n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502310/original/file-20221221-22-we63n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502310/original/file-20221221-22-we63n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502310/original/file-20221221-22-we63n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The adaptation plan should educate the public about climate challenges that lie ahead.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Emissions reduction still matters</h2>
<p>A national conversation on climate adaptation should involve diverse participants in structured dialogue, and be conducted with mutual respect. </p>
<p>Such an initiative would be world’s best practice, and further strengthen the Albanese government’s climate credentials as Australia <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-decades-putting-the-brakes-on-global-action-does-australia-deserve-to-host-un-climate-talks-with-pacific-nations-194055">seeks to host</a> the United Nations’ global climate talks in 2026.</p>
<p>None of this takes away from the pressing need to rapidly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. If Earth’s climate warms by 2°C or more, the scale of the climate hazards – and the cascading harms to society – will far overwhelm any steps we take to adapt. </p>
<p>So as well as adapting to climate change, the federal government must also increase its own emission reduction ambition, and advocate for other nations to follow suit.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-decades-putting-the-brakes-on-global-action-does-australia-deserve-to-host-un-climate-talks-with-pacific-nations-194055">After decades putting the brakes on global action, does Australia deserve to host UN climate talks with Pacific nations?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196934/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Glasser works for ASPI, which receives funding from DFAT to analyse climate and security risks in the region.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Crosweller and Mark Howden do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia must recognise the complex risks associated with cascading natural disasters, and draw on the knowledge and experience of all citizens.Robert Glasser, Honorary Professor, Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions, Australian National UniversityMark Crosweller, Associate Professor in the Practice of National Security Leadership, Australian National UniversityMark Howden, Director, ANU Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948192022-11-23T04:24:24Z2022-11-23T04:24:24ZAdapting to a hotter planet has never been more important, and progress edged forward at COP27<p>As the COP27 climate summit <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-one-big-breakthrough-but-ultimately-an-inadequate-response-to-the-climate-crisis-194056">drew to a close</a> over the weekend, it’s important to acknowledge that progress was made on climate adaptation – even if more can be done.</p>
<p>“Climate adaptation” is a term for how countries adapt to the impacts of climate change. It could be, for instance, by strengthening infrastructure to better withstand disasters, moving towns out of floodplains, or transforming the agriculture sector to minimise food insecurity. </p>
<p>As the costs of disasters climb, working out who will finance climate adaptation has become increasingly urgent for developing nations. For decades, they’ve called upon wealthy countries – largely responsible for causing the climate crisis in the first place – to foot the bill.</p>
<p>So let’s explore what COP27 achieved, how these achievements might translate into tangible commitments, and what must happen now to give everyone a fighting chance to survive on a hotter planet.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vdYFO8i4VOI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Adaptation & Agriculture day at COP27.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A thorny issue</h2>
<p>The thorniest issues at climate change negotiations are about finance: who is giving, who is receiving, how is the money received and what kind of finance is made available. </p>
<p>Developed countries don’t have a good track record on this. In 2009, they committed to mobilising US$100 billion per year of climate finance by 2020 – a target that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">remains unmet</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-one-big-breakthrough-but-ultimately-an-inadequate-response-to-the-climate-crisis-194056">COP27: one big breakthrough but ultimately an inadequate response to the climate crisis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>What’s more, most climate finance so far has been <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/statement-by-the-oecd-secretary-general-on-climate-finance-trends-to-2020.htm">directed towards</a> helping developing nations mitigate their emissions, rather than for adaptation. </p>
<p>As Dina Saleh, the Regional Director of the United Nations International Fund for Agricultural Development, <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/11/1130517?utm_source=UN+News+-+Newsletter&utm_campaign=b64f0c7417-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_11_12_06_24&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fdbf1af606-b64f0c7417-107091541">explained</a> during the conference, failing to help rural populations adapt could lead to more poverty, migrations and conflict. She said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We are calling on world leaders from developed nations to honour their pledge to provide the $100 billion a year in climate finance to developing nations and to channel half of that [for] climate adaptation.</p>
</blockquote>
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<h2>Adaptation finance still falls short</h2>
<p>The United Nations has established <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/introduction-to-climate-finance#:%7E:text=In%20addition%20to%20providing%20guidance,the%20Kyoto%20Protocol%20in%202001.">different funds</a> to channel adaptation finance, including the Least Developed Countries Fund, Special Climate Change Fund and Adaptation Fund. </p>
<p>At COP27, eight countries pledged US$105.6 million <a href="https://www.thegef.org/newsroom/press-releases/countries-pledge-added-support-gef-funds-urgent-climate-adaptation">for adaptation</a> via the Least Developed Countries Fund and Special Climate Change Fund, including Sweden, Germany and Ireland. Others, such as the United States and Canada, expressed potential future financial commitments. </p>
<p>These funds are in addition to the US$413 million promised at COP26 in Glasgow last year, via the Least Developed Countries Fund. The money <a href="https://www.thegef.org/newsroom/press-releases/countries-pledge-added-support-gef-funds-urgent-climate-adaptation">will target</a> the most urgently needed adaptation efforts, such as strengthening infrastructure, social safety nets and diversifying livelihoods. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27s-loss-and-damage-fund-for-developing-countries-could-be-a-breakthrough-or-another-empty-climate-promise-194992">COP27's ‘loss and damage’ fund for developing countries could be a breakthrough – or another empty climate promise</a>
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<p>There is also a specific new funding for small-island developing states. While this development has been welcomed by the <a href="https://www.aosis.org">Alliance of Small Island States</a>, it also says faster processes are needed to make the money available. </p>
<p>Small island nations such as Tuvalu are already experiencing severe climate impacts, and the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter15.pdf">projections</a> are dire. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found some atoll islands are likely to experience coral bleaching every year by 2040. </p>
<p>These islands are also particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones. One single large event can set development back years. For example, in 2016 tropical cyclone Winston took out over <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2022/04/11/on-the-frontlines-of-climate-change-small-island-states-can-lead-in-resilience">a third of</a> Fiji’s GDP in about 36 hours. </p>
<p>Similarly, other highly vulnerable nations across Africa and Asia are asking for easier access to adaptation finance. The <a href="https://www.adaptation-fund.org">Adaptation Fund</a> included an innovation that gave countries easier access to money, and ensured it responds directly to each country’s needs. </p>
<p>At COP27, this fund received over US$230 million in new pledges. However, it <a href="https://www.adaptation-fund.org/adaptation-fund-receives-over-us-230-million-mobilized-in-2022-for-the-most-climate-vulnerable-at-cop27-in-egypt/?utm_source=Climate+Weekly&utm_campaign=260c95efbe-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_11_06_09_26_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_bf939f9418-260c95efbe-407951649">currently has</a> <em>unfunded</em> adaptation projects worth US$380 million in the pipeline, signalling the urgent need to ramp up finance. </p>
<h2>Progress is edging forward</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement in 2015 set the “global goal on adaptation” to drive collective progress on climate adaptation worldwide. At COP27, <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/workstreams/glasgow-sharm-el-sheikh-WP-GGGA">countries agreed</a> to develop a framework for this goal in 2023. This includes gender-responsive approaches, and science-based metrics and targets to track progress.</p>
<p>Another big-ticket item is the “global stocktake” on adaptation, which measures progress at the national level on fulfilling Paris Agreement obligations. </p>
<p>At COP27, it was noted <a href="https://napcentral.org/submitted-naps">only 40 countries</a> so far have submitted their national adaptation plans, which identify adaptation priorities and strategies for reducing climate vulnerability. Questions remain about how to accelerate the planning, implementation and financing of these plans.</p>
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<p>The Sharm-el-Seikh <a href="https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/cop27-presidency-announces-ambitous-climate-resilience-agenda/">Adaptation Agenda</a> was also launched by the two UN-appointed High-Level Climate Champions. These seek to engage non-state actors, such as cities, businesses and investors, to boost ambition for climate adaptation. </p>
<p>The agenda’s ultimate aim is to help 4 billion people become more resilient to climate change impacts by 2030. It has 30 adaptation outcomes to aim for, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>protecting 3 billion people from disasters by installing smart and early warning systems in the most vulnerable communities</p></li>
<li><p>investing US$4 billion to secure the future of 15 million hectares of mangroves worldwide </p></li>
<li><p>mobilising US$140-300 billion across both public and private finance sources for adaptation.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>Many pledges on adaptation finance have been made in COP26 and COP27, and the next step is to get the money where it is most urgently needed. </p>
<p>As climate impacts are already unfolding rapidly, communities worldwide must develop the capacity to plan for climate adaptation. This requires action at every level, and shouldn’t be left to local communities alone. </p>
<p>Making progress on climate adaptation in the coming years is crucial. Early action and planning can save thousands of dollars, but only if we have robust processes in place to make decisions before impacts occur. This calls for more planning, investments and collaboration across local, regional, state and international levels. </p>
<p>But most important is the willingness to change our mindset. We must stop operating in a business-as-usual model and push for a more sustainable world in this changing climate. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-changes-impact-on-mental-health-is-overlooked-and-misunderstood-heres-what-can-be-done-194128">Climate change's impact on mental health is overlooked and misunderstood – here's what can be done</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Johanna Nalau has received funding from the Australian Research Council for her climate adaptation research. She is is also a Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II on the Small Islands chapter, and a Lead Author for the Summary for Policymakers. She is also the Co-chair of the Science Committee in the World Adaptation Science Program.</span></em></p>As the costs of disasters climb, working out who will finance climate adaptation has become increasingly urgent for developing nations.Johanna Nalau, Research Fellow, Climate Adaptation, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1941282022-11-08T16:37:46Z2022-11-08T16:37:46ZClimate change’s impact on mental health is overlooked and misunderstood – here’s what can be done<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493980/original/file-20221107-16-63eoxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=19%2C0%2C6479%2C4394&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zurijeta / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, floods and hurricanes increasingly feature in people’s lives and are predicted to become more <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">frequent and intense</a> in the coming decades. These events are having a significant yet often overlooked psychological impact not only on those directly affected by such catastrophes, but also on those who expect to be affected by them in the future.</p>
<p>Little more than a decade ago, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51109193_The_Psychological_Impacts_of_Global_Climate_Change">researchers</a> started to note that climate change will have a deep psychological impact and that people will be exposed in different ways. Since then new terms have emerged. These include <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494419307145?via=ihub">climate change anxiety</a>, or eco-anxiety, which is experienced by those, often young, people overwhelmed with anger or anxiety and feeling that they have no control over the planet’s future. </p>
<p>Then there’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/15/arctic-solastalgia-climate-crisis-inuit-indigenous">solastalgia</a>, described as “homesickness without leaving home”, felt by people whose native lands or familiar environment are changing fast. These feelings, along with and ecological or <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0092-2">climate grief</a>, are often triggered by viewing media depictions or indirectly experiencing of environmental degradation and climate crises.</p>
<p>We already know that poor mental health can lead to strained social relationships, impaired cognitive abilities, addiction to substances or alcohol, and suicide. According to the <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240036703">WHO Mental Health Atlas</a>, most countries lack the capacity to address even existing needs.</p>
<p><a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/06/1120682">One billion people</a> currently live with a mental health condition. They are supported by just 13 mental health workers for every 100,000 people, while governments spend, on average, just over <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240036703">2% of health budgets</a> on mental health. People in low and middle-income countries face even more severe difficulties in accessing support, with <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29173244/">75% of people with depression either undiagnosed or not treated</a>. The situation is often compounded where mental health issues are culturally taboo.</p>
<p>This worrying situation will be intensified by the growing psychological impact of climate change and the fallout from malnutrition and other conditions associated with the crisis. As a report published by the WHO this summer indicates, these climate-related interlinkages are still <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240045125">under-recognised</a>.</p>
<h2>Four things that would help</h2>
<p>Although the situation is dire some positive steps can be taken. First, more research is needed to better understand different concepts and relevant risk factors. </p>
<p>Without this, those affected by climate change may be assumed as “just” traumatised and given unfit clinical interventions or left untreated altogether. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.348.6235.643">Naming new illnesses</a> can be useful, but needs to be thoughtfully considered to avoid unintentionally <a href="https://theconversation.com/todays-disease-names-are-less-catchy-but-also-less-likely-to-cause-stigma-131465">stigmatising</a> certain groups or industries, as happened with “<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/pork-industry-reeling-swine-flu/story?id=8840004">swine flu</a>”.</p>
<p>Second, mental health support systems should be a fully integrated part of any plan to adapt to climate change and <a href="https://www.psychiatry.org/patients-families/climate-change-and-mental-health-connections/resilience-and-individual-actions-before-and-after">respond to disasters</a>. The intersection between climate change and mental health has been mostly discussed within the frameworks of <a href="https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/326106/9789241516181-eng.pdf">emergency and disaster management</a>. Yet climate-related mental health support outside of such emergencies is currently either <a href="https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/144781/9789241508186_eng.pdf">limited or entirely absent</a>. </p>
<p>Third, people must be encouraged to take action collectively. A <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12144-022-02735-6.pdf">recent study on young adults</a> reported that climate change anxiety is associated with the symptoms of generalised anxiety disorder. However, engaging in climate action collectively (but not by yourself) significantly reduced the association between climate anxiety and depressive symptoms. </p>
<p>This collective action can involve many different forms such as engaging in community-led activities of <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/empowering-local-communities-help-solve-global-plastic-waste/">plastic recycling</a> or <a href="https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/ghana-photographer-climate-change-mental-health/">using art and creative thinking</a> to tell a wider audience about climate-induced stress. Since climate anxieties might be an important <a href="https://phys.org/news/2022-09-climate-anxiety-important-driver-action.html">trigger for climate action</a>, these collective actions can help mental health by developing a sense of agency and solidarity: “I am doing my bit, and all these others are with me.”</p>
<p>Finally, at <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-five-things-to-expect-from-this-years-un-climate-summit-193671">COP27 in Egypt</a> governments are seeking renewed joint action to deal with the climate crises. Mental health should be a big part of this. </p>
<p>For instance, key instruments such as <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/introduction-to-climate-finance">climate finance</a> could be extended to support mental health services. Individual <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/national-adaptation-strategy.html">countries</a> could take note of this aspect in their national plans to adapt to climate change.</p>
<p>Psychological wellbeing is fundamental, both for us as individuals and for society as a whole. It creates the ability to withstand adversity and bounce back and grow despite challenging life experiences and stresses. </p>
<p>It also enables us to build constructive relationships with others that are crucial for developing solidarity in communities. A collective <a href="https://cri.merit.unu.edu/the-new-normal-of-climate-grief-why-mental-health-must-feature-in-adaptation-and-resilience-planning/">call for action</a> will help us transition from a state of fear and anxiety for many and create hope to build more resilient societies, <a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2022/11/07/leave-no-one-behind">leaving no one behind</a> and empowering future generations to take climate action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194128/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It has psychological consequences for those affected now, but also for those who expect to be in future.Sanae Okamoto, Researcher in Behavioural Science and Psychology, Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute (UNU-MERIT), United Nations UniversityNidhi Nagabhatla, Research Fellow, Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNU-CRIS) and Adj Prof McMaster University, Canada, United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1938652022-11-07T11:02:50Z2022-11-07T11:02:50ZArmed conflict and climate change: how these two threats play out in Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493782/original/file-20221107-17-9nbzq2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eric Lafforgue/Art in All of Us/Corbis via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world is falling miserably short of reducing carbon emissions in line with the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>, a 2015 treaty to keep global warming well below 2°C. </p>
<p>The results of this failure are a greater increase in the prevalence and severity of extreme weather events, more rapid sea-level rises and an elevated risk of triggering irreversible <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950">climate tipping points</a>, like the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet or the loss of the Amazon rainforest. </p>
<p>The speed and magnitude of these changes have immediate consequences for <a href="https://ipbes.net/global-assessment">ecosystem health and biodiversity</a>. Further, sustained climate change threatens fundamental dimensions of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/02/28/pr-wgii-ar6/">human wellbeing</a>. </p>
<p>There are also frequent claims about looming “<a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-jp/Climate+Wars:+What+People+Will+Be+Killed+For+in+the+21st+Century-p-9780745651453">climate wars</a>”. These depict a chaotic world with unsustainable mass migrations, devastating weather-related disasters and violent clashes for survival in an era of rapidly diminishing resources. </p>
<p>However, the link between climate change and conflict is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1300-6">weak</a> when compared to the main drivers of conflict, notably poverty, inequality and weak governance. </p>
<p>Instead, violent conflict in the context of a warming planet plays another and far more prominent role: it’s a critical driver of vulnerability, which makes adverse impacts from weather extremes more likely and more severe. In other words, violent conflict weakens communities and countries so that they are not in a position to adapt to the changing world around them.</p>
<p>Although it may be possible to maintain peace without successful climate adaptation, successful climate adaptation is impossible in the absence of peace. </p>
<h2>How climate change affects conflict</h2>
<p>Climate change is commonly framed as a <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2021/sgsm21074.doc.htm">risk multiplier</a> that worsens conditions known to increase conflict risk, such as poverty and inequality. </p>
<p>Research shows that adverse climate conditions may lead to more <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002720923400">support for violence</a>. These conditions can also contribute to <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1411899111">escalating or prolonging conflict</a>. This is particularly the case in places marked by climate-sensitive economic activities, political marginalisation and a history of violence. </p>
<p>Typical hotspots of such dynamics are found in the Sahel and rural East Africa. However, the true role of climate change in causing conflict in these settings remains <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0022343311427343?casa_token=lTbQ0Nx_fJ8AAAAA%3AbQ0Z73f9lmAQUIjTpPAhbuQQobplFoaP2p7PqRSzgaNpw-DXgK14yPGif5BDItIbfqLiqp8hRnWgEUM">disputed</a>. How climate shapes peace and security depends on how societies respond to climate change. </p>
<p>In a recent <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.722">journal article</a>, my colleague and I outline several potential ways climate policy can be linked to drivers of conflict. These could, for example, be by way of addressing energy insecurity, financial vulnerabilities from altered tourism patterns or loss of oil revenues, and land-use competition related to environmental conservation projects.</p>
<p>These links have attracted little systematic study to date and remain a key priority for <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343320984210">future research</a>.</p>
<h2>How conflict affects climate risk</h2>
<p>The link from climate to conflict seems to be modest. But the reverse – from conflict to climate vulnerability – is very strong. </p>
<p>Armed conflict ruins economic activity and livelihoods. It threatens food security, obstructs markets and public goods provision, damages critical infrastructure and triggers forced displacement. All of these erode local capacity to cope and adapt to environmental hazards. </p>
<p>Put simply, armed conflict is <a href="https://blogs.prio.org/2015/09/war-is-development-in-reverse/">development in reverse</a>. The consequence of the war in Ukraine on the <a href="https://www.wfp.org/publications/war-ukraine-drives-global-food-crisis">food crisis</a> in developing countries today is evidence that armed conflict can affect social vulnerability and human security at a global scale. </p>
<p>Given the devastating effect of conflict on coping capacity, it’s extremely worrying that violent conflict is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00223433221108428">on the rise</a> in Africa. The continent is already judged to be the <a href="https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/">most vulnerable</a> to the impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>Conflict, alongside the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, has also been identified as a major cause of <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2022/">recent reversals</a> in sustainable development. The most severe <a href="https://www.rescue.org/article/top-10-crises-world-cant-ignore-2022">humanitarian crises</a> today are all found in countries suffering from major conflicts and wars.</p>
<h2>A vicious circle</h2>
<p>Each of the processes outlined above challenges sustainable development:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>violent conflict deters long-term growth and ruins local capacity to manage climate-driven risks</p></li>
<li><p>climate impacts threaten human security in vulnerable societies, thereby increasing conflict risk. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Together, they may result in a <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708">vicious circle</a> of destructive effects.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493229/original/file-20221103-14-9pz9py.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493229/original/file-20221103-14-9pz9py.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493229/original/file-20221103-14-9pz9py.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493229/original/file-20221103-14-9pz9py.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493229/original/file-20221103-14-9pz9py.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493229/original/file-20221103-14-9pz9py.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493229/original/file-20221103-14-9pz9py.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493229/original/file-20221103-14-9pz9py.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The vicious circle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Halvard Buhaug</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The solution is peace</h2>
<p>The ways in which climate change and extreme weather events challenge peace and security are widely acknowledged and increasingly well understood. This is why the likes of the <a href="https://www.unssc.org/news-and-insights/blog/joint-efforts-sustaining-peace-meet-un-climate-security-mechanism">UN’s Climate Security Mechanism</a> exist. The UN Development Programme also plans to “<a href="https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/publications/UNDP-Typology-and-Analysis-of-Climate-Related-Security-Risks-First-Round-of-NDC_0.pdf">climate proof</a>” peace-keeping and stability in regions that have experienced conflict. </p>
<p>Climate security has additionally been the subject of <a href="https://climate-security-expert-network.org/unsc-engagement">nine open debates</a> at the UN Security Council since 2007, seven of which have been held in the past four years. </p>
<p>Successful climate adaptation allows for sustainable development and has <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31202-w">important benefits</a> for peace. However, it should not replace traditional conflict resolution and peacebuilding programmes. And it is important to be aware of the <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2020/01/beware-dark-side-environmental-peacebuilding/">dark sides</a> of environmental peacebuilding. </p>
<p>Less attention has been paid to “conflict proofing” climate adaptation programming. Instead, adaptation plans often <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X20305118">assume peaceful settings</a> and fail to consider political contexts that may underpin local conflicts and be a major source of vulnerability. </p>
<p>Yet, without peace on the ground, actions to address climate risks will be restrained, ineffective and possibly counterproductive.</p>
<p>From this follows a key insight: in violent contexts, peacebuilding should be seen as the first and most crucial step toward addressing complex climate risks. </p>
<p>Resolving conflict is no replacement for effective climate adaptation. But climate action without a safe environment with functioning governance structures is unlikely to solve structural sources of vulnerability. As has been <a href="https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/no-peace-no-sustainable-development-vicious-cycle-we-can-break">said elsewhere</a>: no peace, no sustainable development.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193865/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Halvard Buhaug receives funding from the European Research Council (grant no. 101055133). </span></em></p>In the absence of peace, efforts to address climate risks will be restrained, ineffective and counterproductive.Halvard Buhaug, Research Professor, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1902212022-10-05T18:07:28Z2022-10-05T18:07:28ZClimate risk index shows threats to 90 per cent of the world’s marine species<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488188/original/file-20221004-14-lflwk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C102%2C1368%2C921&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The biodiversity-rich Komodo Island in Indonesia is a climate risk hotspot.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Daniel G. Boyce)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change impacts marine life through a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf7671">bewildering web of complex pathways</a>.</p>
<p>Warming oceans and climate extremes are driving species into <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1239352">deeper, more northern and cooler locations</a>, altering their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat4220">behaviour</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611">reconfiguring marine ecosystems in radical and unprecedented ways</a>.</p>
<p>While some impacts can be beneficial, many are harmful, making it difficult to understand the overall effects of climate on individual species and ecosystems. Despite these challenges, we urgently need to understand how changing climate conditions affect marine life to plan and develop adaptation approaches to steward it effectively under climate change.</p>
<p>In our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01437-y">new study,</a> my co-authors and I developed the Climate Risk Index for Biodiversity, which captures the climate risk for nearly 25,000 marine species and their ecosystems. This new index lays the groundwork for supporting climate-smart approaches to managing and conserving marine life.</p>
<h2>A climate report card</h2>
<p>We used a data-driven statistical approach to create a “climate report card” for each species and ecosystem that tells us which ones will win or lose under climate change. This approach enabled us to study a broad spectrum of life forms, from microscopic plankton to large predators and whales, across all marine ecosystems from the tropics to the poles.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A whale shark swimming in the ocean." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487883/original/file-20221003-12-qsqotk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487883/original/file-20221003-12-qsqotk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487883/original/file-20221003-12-qsqotk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487883/original/file-20221003-12-qsqotk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487883/original/file-20221003-12-qsqotk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487883/original/file-20221003-12-qsqotk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487883/original/file-20221003-12-qsqotk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The climate report card assessed species ranging from plankton to whales on 12 specific climate risk factors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Just as a report card grades students on subjects such as math and science, we assessed each species on 12 specific climate risk factors depending on two different future scenarios — one with lower emissions and one with higher emissions.</p>
<p>The climate risk factors express how the innate characteristics of a species — their body size and temperature tolerance — intersect with past, present and future ocean conditions at all locations where they are found. </p>
<p>The resulting risk scale ranges from negligible (lowest) to critical (highest) and represents both the severity of harmful climate impacts on species and their likelihood of occurring.</p>
<h2>Divergent climate futures</h2>
<p>Our study focuses on two possible <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/">shared socioeconomic pathway</a> scenarios of how future society — and the greenhouse gas emissions it produces — could transpire. The results paint two wildly divergent pictures for marine life and people.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario/">high emissions scenario</a>, the global average ocean temperature <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020">will increase by three to five degrees Celcius</a> by 2100. Under this scenario, almost 90 per cent of the 25,000 species we assessed were at a “high” or “critical” climate risk. The average species was at risk across 85 per cent of its geographic range.</p>
<p>The risk is highest in the subtropical and tropical ecosystems that tend to be <a href="https://oceanpanel.org/publication/critical-habitats-and-biodiversity-inventory-thresholds-and-governance/">biodiversity hotspots</a> and in nearshore ecosystems that support <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03371-z">96 per cent of the global fish catch</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487932/original/file-20221003-20-tdomqz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map showing the regions with ecosystems where marine species are at high or critical climate risk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487932/original/file-20221003-20-tdomqz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487932/original/file-20221003-20-tdomqz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487932/original/file-20221003-20-tdomqz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487932/original/file-20221003-20-tdomqz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487932/original/file-20221003-20-tdomqz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487932/original/file-20221003-20-tdomqz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487932/original/file-20221003-20-tdomqz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The proportion of marine species at high or critical climate risk under high emissions by 2100. Darkest red shading denotes the highest risk areas, and darkest blue the lowest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Daniel G. Boyce)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Top predators like sharks and tunas were at significantly higher risk than species further down the food chain, like forage fishes. Such predators can have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1138657">massive effects on ecosystem structure</a> and functioning.</p>
<p>Our findings also suggest severe ripple effects for people who most rely on the ocean. Under high emissions, climate risks for fished species such as cod and lobsters were consistently greater within the territories of low-income nations, where people depend more on fisheries to meet their nutritional needs. </p>
<p>This represents yet another example of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15708-9">climate inequality</a> wherein low-income countries that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3186">have contributed the least to climate change, and are more aggressively reducing their emissions</a>, are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15708-9">experiencing its worst impacts while having the lowest capacity to adapt to them.</a></p>
<p>Our study stresses that we are at a critical fork in the road and that choosing a more sustainable path that prioritizes climate mitigation will lead to clear benefits for ocean life and people.</p>
<p>Under a low emissions scenario, average ocean temperatures are expected to increase by <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020">one to two degrees Celsius by 2100</a>, as per the two degrees Celsius global warming limit in the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>Under this future, we found a reduced climate risk for virtually all marine life (98.2 per cent). The disproportionate risk for ecosystem structure, biodiversity, fisheries and low-income nations are greatly reduced or eliminated.</p>
<h2>Averting harmful climate risks</h2>
<p>Our approaches to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12586">fisheries management</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay9969">protected area planning</a> and biodiversity conservation originated in a world with a relatively stable climate. But climate change is rewriting the rule books and threatening to undermine the effectiveness of these traditional approaches. </p>
<p>Cutting emissions is the most direct approach to reducing climate risks. Yet, even with strong mitigation, our study suggests that climate change will continue to affect marine life. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The remains of a fish lie on the dried lake bed." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486920/original/file-20220927-14-h76pgq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486920/original/file-20220927-14-h76pgq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486920/original/file-20220927-14-h76pgq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486920/original/file-20220927-14-h76pgq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486920/original/file-20220927-14-h76pgq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486920/original/file-20220927-14-h76pgq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486920/original/file-20220927-14-h76pgq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In addition to reducing emissions, we must find ways to adapt to a warming climate to protect marine life and those who depend on it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition to reducing emissions, it is imperative that we simultaneously find ways to adapt to a warming climate to protect our oceans. We must incorporate new methods and adaptation strategies, develop capacity in under-resourced parts of the world and carefully weigh the pros and cons of adaptation measures.</p>
<p>Our study provides a new tool and index to help inform decision-makers when navigating these complex issues. It can assist with developing strategies to manage and conserve marine life under climate change, monitor changing climate risk and gauge progress towards risk reduction.</p>
<p>While our study paints a potentially grim future under high emissions, it also highlights how our oceans and marine life could benefit from climate change mitigation and adaptation and stresses the urgency with which we must work towards this goal.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel G. Boyce does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new biodiversity index captures the climate risk for nearly 25,000 marine species and their ecosystems and lays the groundwork for climate-smart approaches to management and conservation.Daniel G. Boyce, Research Scientist, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Adjunct Professor, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1897352022-09-14T14:28:54Z2022-09-14T14:28:54ZClimate change threatens food but microscopic algae offer answers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484059/original/file-20220912-1755-ql33wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=52%2C905%2C4940%2C3458&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Microalgae are a diverse group of microscopic aquatic organisms.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Maryna Lahereva/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2021 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued the first volume of its latest authoritative report on climate change. The United Nations secretary-general <a href="https://unric.org/en/guterres-the-ipcc-report-is-a-code-red-for-humanity/">branded</a> its findings a “code red for humanity”. </p>
<p>The emerging and predicted impacts on agriculture and food supplies are stark, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">according to the panel</a>. For instance, heat waves, drought and increasing rainfall variability could adversely affect crop yields and livestock productivity. This, in turn, could <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">cause problems</a> with food availability and nutritional quality, as well as risks of malnutrition and hunger. </p>
<p>Some parts of the world disproportionately bear this burden: over three billion people are currently deemed highly vulnerable to climate change, most of them in Africa, South Asia and Latin America. Small-scale farmers and pastoralists are particularly at risk. </p>
<p>The need for climate action is now evident, but finding viable pathways can be challenging. Yet effective climate actions can reduce climate-related risks while fostering sustainability. “<a href="https://www.fao.org/climate-smart-agriculture-sourcebook/en/">Climate smart</a>” agricultural technologies offer various proven climate actions, such as agroforestry or drought-tolerant seeds. Such technologies can potentially raise farm productivity while also mitigating (that is, combating) climate change or helping farmers adapt to it, or both.</p>
<h2>Growing interest in microalgae</h2>
<p>Microalgae are a diverse group of microscopic aquatic organisms. Like plants, they typically generate energy from sunlight through photosynthesis. But they <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389%2Ffpls.2021.766509">differ from plants</a> in basic ways. For instance, they grow in water instead of on land and absorb nutrients directly instead of via roots. While some microalgae are seen as <a href="https://www.eolss.net/Sample-Chapters/C06/E6-13-04-04.pdf">harmful</a>, others provide useful products. </p>
<p>Consumers, businesses and researchers have shown growing interest in microalgae in recent years. Use of <em>Arthrospira platensis</em> (spirulina) as a food supplement is one example. Others include how microalgae can be used as crop support tools, bioplastics or biofuels. </p>
<p>One question that has remained largely unexamined, however, is whether “agri-food” applications of microalgae might offer promising options to mitigate or adapt to climate change.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2022.976946">new academic paper</a> set out to provide provisional answers. It reviewed the available evidence on microalgae as food supplements, livestock feeds, biofertilisers, biostimulants and biochar feedstocks. It then assessed the potential of these five microalgae applications to serve as the basis for climate actions. </p>
<h2>Agri-food applications and climate action</h2>
<p>Microalgae have been used as traditional foods in various countries where suitable species occur naturally, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1128%2Fmr.47.4.551-578.1983">Mexico</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008177925799">Chad</a>. </p>
<p>Nowadays microalgae food supplements are principally <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/az386e/az386e.pdf">eaten</a> by health-conscious consumers. Yet they can also be used to address <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-0169-2_5">malnutrition</a> and to improve health in places where diet is poor. As foods, microalgae can be potent sources of nutrients, including high-quality <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33925123/">proteins</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10811-016-0974-5">lipids</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781118567166.ch25">vitamins</a>.</p>
<p>Microalgae production has characteristics that clearly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00269-x">distinguish it</a> from plant or animal production. It doesn’t require fertile land. It is largely independent of local weather patterns and could potentially recycle water. It has elevated productivity and scope for continuous harvests. This technological profile is well suited to coping with climatic shocks, so microalgae production can be <a href="https://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/resources/htmlpdf/AR5_SYR_FINAL_Annexes/">climate resilient</a>. The delivery of microalgal biomass for use as a food or for other applications can thus also be climate resilient. </p>
<p>Novel feeds like <a href="https://sci-hub.ru/10.1016/j.anifeedsci.2017.10.002">microalgae</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anifeedsci.2015.09.018">seaweed</a> and <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34991214/">insects</a> offer options to improve the sustainability of livestock production by providing protein-rich complements to staple feeds like grasses and feed crops. Microalgae feeds have been tested on cattle, goats, sheep, pigs, poultry and fish. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10408398.2020.1768046">results</a> have typically included improved productivity, better nutritional quality of products, or both. Microalgae could also provide a secure source of feeds in places where livestock deaths linked to climate change are a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12060">growing concern</a>. </p>
<p>Global crop production continues to rely heavily on chemical fertilisers to boost crop productivity. However, such products can sometimes <a href="https://www.internationalscholarsjournals.com/articles/an-assessment-of-the-use-of-mineral-and-organicfertilizers-by-smallholder-farmers-in-vhembedistrict-limpopo-province-sou.pdf">undermine</a> agricultural sustainability or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01904167.2016.1187747">not cope</a> well with climate change impacts. </p>
<p>Biofertilisers and biostimulants are natural alternative options for boosting crop production. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/9/4/192">Biofertilisers</a> provide nutrients to plants. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2015.09.021">Biostimulants</a> promote plant growth by stimulating biological or chemical processes in plants or microbes associated with roots.</p>
<p>Early studies of microalgae-based <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2015.v4n2p77">biofertilisers</a> and <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33609932/">biostimulants</a> suggest they can boost productivity while also building the resilience of crops to climate-related stresses like elevated temperatures, water scarcity and soil salinity. Treated maize plants, for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.algal.2021.102515">example</a>, showed more developed roots than untreated plants. This resulted in better resistance to drought. </p>
<p>Microalgae could also support crop production by using algal biomass to make biochar, or charred biomass. Applying biochar to fields can <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203762264">improve</a> soil fertility and enhance soil’s capacity to hold water. Such effects could help crops cope with climate change impacts like erratic rainfall and extreme weather events. </p>
<p>Biochar was a <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203762264">traditional</a> soil management tool in some cultures, and treated fields sometimes remain distinct. For instance, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/442624a">fields</a> treated many centuries ago in South America were found to contain up to 9% carbon compared with 0.5% on neighbouring fields. Moreover, their productivity was twice as high as that of untreated fields. Early studies on biochar made from microalgae have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaap.2014.12.004">suggested</a> it could be an effective soil amendment.</p>
<h2>Mitigating and adapting to climate change</h2>
<p>Taken together, these five agri-food applications of microalgae could be seen as possible ways to enhance the climate resilience of food production, and hence as climate change adaptation measures. Concretely, they offer options to help secure both food supplies and agricultural livelihoods despite climate change. </p>
<p>These five applications were also found to offer possible ways to mitigate climate change, whether by reducing greenhouse gas emissions or transforming these gases into physical form. One example is <a href="https://europepmc.org/article/AGR/IND606228678">partially replacing</a> an imported livestock feed like soymeal – associated with transport emissions and tropical deforestation – with microalgae-based feeds that need comparatively little land and could be locally sourced. Another example is using microalgae-based biochar to <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Biochar-for-Environmental-Management-Science-Technology-and-Implementation/Lehmann-Joseph/p/book/9780367779184">build up</a> soil organic carbon in stable form. </p>
<p>In future, such mitigation measures could perhaps be <a href="https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/publications/state-of-the-voluntary-carbon-markets-2021/">supported</a> by the carbon markets. These markets offer mechanisms to pay for projects that mitigate climate change. In theory this could provide cash flows to participating stakeholders, including farmers. Such projects might moreover be attractive to potential participants given <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/carbon">sharp rises</a> in carbon credit prices in recent years, even if these initiatives have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2021.1877063">sometimes</a> proven disappointing in the past. Several institutional developments would, however, be needed to make this possible.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484256/original/file-20220913-18-b306ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484256/original/file-20220913-18-b306ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484256/original/file-20220913-18-b306ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484256/original/file-20220913-18-b306ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484256/original/file-20220913-18-b306ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484256/original/file-20220913-18-b306ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484256/original/file-20220913-18-b306ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Agri-food applications of microalgae can help mitigate and adapt to climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dr Jules Siedenburg</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The five microalgae applications examined clearly hold promise, both as avenues for fostering climate resilient food production and as climate change mitigation measures. These applications could thus be framed as climate actions. But more research is needed to explore and verify this potential, and to examine issues like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-019-00912-3">consumer acceptance</a> and managing possible <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10811-016-0974-5">contamination risks</a>. </p>
<p>In the meantime, these five microalgae technologies merit greater attention from consumers, farmers and governments as timely and hopeful innovations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189735/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jules Siedenburg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The research reviewed the available evidence on microalgae as food supplements, livestock feeds, biofertilisers, biostimulants and biochar feedstocks.Jules Siedenburg, Research fellow, School of International Development, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882162022-08-11T20:04:20Z2022-08-11T20:04:20ZNZ’s first climate adaptation plan is a good start, but crucial questions about cost and timing must be answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478610/original/file-20220810-4746-yqo4i1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C107%2C6480%2C4213&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sanka Vidanagama/NurPhoto via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand’s national adaptation plan, launched last week, offers the first comprehensive approach to how communities can prepare for the inevitable impacts of a changing climate. </p>
<p>Having a plan is critical. Reactive and ad-hoc adaptation could create more problems on top of those already caused by climate change. </p>
<p>Based on priority risks identified in the <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/national-climate-change-risk-assessment-for-new-zealand-main-report/">national climate change risk assessment</a>, the plan gives clearer direction around decision making for long-lived investments such as infrastructure and housing. </p>
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<p>It provides more clarity for local government, for example by specifying which climate change scenario they should use when assessing risks to coastal areas from sea-level rise. </p>
<p>It also sets out actions to review the sharing of adaptation costs between local and national government – an urgent step which means councils can begin making realistic plans for their own local adaptation.</p>
<p>But some aspects of the plan lack strategy and structure. It is more a series of actions, some connected, others quite discrete, with many already happening anyway.
The absence of Te Tiriti in the framing is concerning, as is the fact some of the main funding sources for adaptation research (such as the national science challenges) end in 2024.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-has-launched-a-plan-to-prepare-for-inevitable-climate-change-impacts-5-areas-where-the-hard-work-starts-now-188221">New Zealand has launched a plan to prepare for inevitable climate change impacts: 5 areas where the hard work starts now</a>
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<h2>Priorities for adaptation</h2>
<p>The adaptation plan is legislated under the <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/acts-and-regulations/acts/climate-change-response-amendment-act-2019/">Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act (2019)</a> and is required to address risks identified in the earlier <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/national-climate-change-risk-assessment-for-new-zealand-main-report/">national risk assessment</a>. This includes risks to coastal and native ecosystems, social cohesion, the economy and financial systems, and basic needs such as potable water.</p>
<p>The four goals that underpin the adaptation plan are essentially unarguable: reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts, enhance adaptive capacity, consider climate change in all decisions and strengthen resilience. </p>
<p>Four more specific priority areas are identified as:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>enabling better risk-informed decisions </p></li>
<li><p>driving climate-resilient development in the right places </p></li>
<li><p>laying the foundations for a range of adaptation options, including managed retreat, and </p></li>
<li><p>embedding climate resilience across government policy. </p></li>
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<p>The adaptation plan is structured around actions that relate either to system-wide issues or five “outcome areas”, which broadly align with the domains identified in the risk assessment. These are the natural environment; homes, buildings and places; infrastructure; communities; and the economy and financial system. </p>
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<h2>Lack of strategy</h2>
<p>This all sounds relatively sensible so far. The principles guiding the plan are grounded in <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter01.pdf">adaptation theory and concepts</a>.</p>
<p>Yet the plan still lacks strategy and structured planning. It harnesses existing initiatives already underway, which makes practical sense but could make it difficult to maintain oversight of how adaptation is being implemented.</p>
<p>The plan rightly emphasises the need to continually evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation but it lacks a structured process, leaving it unclear how adaptation will be tracked over time. This limits the scope for how much we can learn from what works or doesn’t, and make adjustments accordingly.</p>
<h2>Who will pay for adaptation?</h2>
<p>The plan touches only superficially on the financing of adaptation, which is a major concern (although let’s not forget that not adapting will cost far more). The costs of managed retreat are increasingly (and justifiably) receiving attention but it remains uncertain who will be expected to pay.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-seas-rising-and-storms-surging-who-will-pay-for-new-zealands-most-vulnerable-coastal-properties-163807">With seas rising and storms surging, who will pay for New Zealand’s most vulnerable coastal properties?</a>
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<p>Other important questions around costs and timing are not addressed directly, including how much more difficult and costly delayed adaptation would be. We need more guidance and direction for investments in an uncertain future, because many of the tools we currently use, such as cost benefit analysis, can’t handle uncertainty very well. </p>
<p>Two of the priority areas identified in the climate change risk assessment involve financial stability and the economy. The requirement for listed companies to begin identifying and disclosing their <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/what-government-is-doing/areas-of-work/climate-change/mandatory-climate-related-financial-disclosures/">climate-related risk</a> and how they are going to minimise it is an important first step.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/building-too-close-to-the-water-its-ridiculous-talk-of-buyouts-after-floods-shows-need-to-get-serious-about-climate-adaptation-186999">'Building too close to the water. It's ridiculous!' Talk of buyouts after floods shows need to get serious about climate adaptation</a>
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<p>The plan makes clear the government cannot bear all the costs of adaptation. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has emphasised there will be <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">limits to effective adaptation</a>, particularly if we fail globally to keep warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures. </p>
<p>When adaptation is not implemented effectively or is not sufficient to cope with the severity of climate change, some of the costs may fall back on the government. This might be directly through disaster relief funding or indirectly through job losses. How government at all levels will handle these costs remains unclear. </p>
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<img alt="A digger is working on a seawall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478612/original/file-20220811-15557-3ymgll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478612/original/file-20220811-15557-3ymgll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478612/original/file-20220811-15557-3ymgll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478612/original/file-20220811-15557-3ymgll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478612/original/file-20220811-15557-3ymgll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478612/original/file-20220811-15557-3ymgll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478612/original/file-20220811-15557-3ymgll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Sea walls may protect one stretch of coast but make the problem worse elsewhere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Ross Gordon Henry</span></span>
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<h2>Unintended consequences</h2>
<p>Another point missing in the adaptation plan is how the government will manage potential unintended consequences of private-sector adaptation and conflicts between groups. </p>
<p>For example, coastal defences such as sea walls or stop banks may protect one area but shift the problem along the coast or downstream. Increasing irrigation to cope with variable rainfall or drought could create conflicts between other water users and the environment. </p>
<p>However, an inter-departmental executive board will be tasked with providing transparency of implementation, improving coordination within central government and enabling accountability. This will be critical to the plan’s effectiveness and ultimately the resilience of Aotearoa New Zealand in a changing climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188216/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anita Wreford is the Impacts and Implications programme lead for the Deep South National Science Challenge.</span></em></p>New Zealand’s first adaptation plan gives local councils clearer guidelines, but it doesn’t tackle crucial questions about who should pay and how to future-proof major investments.Anita Wreford, Professor Applied Economics, Lincoln University, New ZealandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.