tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/coal-power-25730/articlesCoal power – The Conversation2023-12-19T19:02:18Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200402023-12-19T19:02:18Z2023-12-19T19:02:18ZFrom COVID to climate: Queensland’s new emissions pledge shows state governments are once again leading change<p>A striking development in recent years has been the increasing role of state governments in responding to global crises. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/15/steven-miles-announces-ambitious-emissions-reduction-plan-in-first-speech-as-queensland-premier">announcement</a> by newly installed Queensland Premier Steven Miles of an ambitious 75% by 2035 emissions cut target is a case in point.</p>
<p>The renewed centrality of state governments became dramatically evident as the COVID pandemic unfolded, where the states responded strongly while the Commonwealth <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2021/september/1630418400/john-quiggin/dismembering-government">often seemed paralysed</a>.</p>
<p>But it is also true of the response to climate change, where successive national governments have been unable or unwilling to take serious action. The only notable exception – the 2012 carbon price under the Gillard minority government – was extracted by the Greens in return for their support.</p>
<p>Does it matter who does the work? Yes. State efforts can take us a long way towards cutting emissions. But we need federal policies on nationwide issues such as electrifying transport. </p>
<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>Several decades of neoliberal reform and the mantra of <a href="https://anzsog.edu.au/research-insights-and-resources/research/has-new-public-management-improved-public-services/">new public management</a> – bringing business-style competition to the public service – have hollowed out the capacity of the national government to do anything directly. Instead, they have to <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2021/september/1630418400/john-quiggin/dismembering-government">rely on contractors and consultants</a>, limiting any real federal capacity for decisive policy action. </p>
<p>By contrast, hollowing out has been much more muted at state level, where the need to provide schools, hospitals, police and other services have kept governments closer to the actual business of policy delivery.</p>
<p>This pattern of Commonwealth inertia and state activism goes back as far as the 2008 <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/3028">Garnaut Review of Climate Change</a>, commissioned by state governments in response to the Howard Coalition government’s unwillingness to act. </p>
<p>The Labor government took over support for the review after the 2007 election, but the Rudd Government was unable to secure bipartisan support for climate policies. </p>
<p>When the Coalition was back in office from 2013 to 2022, climate denialists in their ranks sought to do the minimum possible without openly rejecting global efforts to stabilise the climate. </p>
<p>By 2022 it was clear Australia would easily exceed our Paris Agreement commitment of a 26% reduction on 2005 emissions through land use change and the rise of renewables. Even so, the power of the denialists was such that the government’s backbench would not consent to an official increase in the target.</p>
<p>As a result, the new Albanese government could commit to a substantially higher target of 43% without any significant policy effort. </p>
<p>Instead of the carbon price Opposition Leader Bill Shorten had promised in 2019, Albanese offered <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-will-have-a-carbon-price-for-industry-and-it-may-infuse-greater-climate-action-across-the-economy-202728">an upgrade</a> to the Safeguard Mechanism, introduced by the Coalition. Energy and Climate Minister Chris Bowen has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-compulsion-for-households-to-buy-evs-or-greener-appliances-government-pledges-20231130-p5eo1m.html">ruled out</a> modest steps such as ending the sale of internal-combustion engine cars by 2040.</p>
<p>Almost all states and territories now have 2030 emission cut goals more ambitious than the national 43% target:</p>
<ul>
<li>New South Wales: 50% </li>
<li>Victoria: 50%</li>
<li>South Australia: at least 50% </li>
<li>Western Australia: 80% below 2020 levels</li>
<li>Australian Capital Territory: 65–75% below 1990 levels</li>
<li>Tasmania: achieved net zero in 2015. </li>
</ul>
<p>Until last week, Queensland was the odd state out, with a 2030 target reduction of only 30% relative to 2005. The new goal – 75% by 2035 – moves Queensland from the back of the pack almost to the front. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-deal-confirms-what-australia-already-knows-coal-is-out-of-vogue-and-out-of-time-219906">COP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Can Queensland really move so quickly?</h2>
<p>The first step towards achieving this goal was largely symbolic: the knockback of a new coal-fired power station proposed by mining magnate Clive Palmer. The proposal was almost certainly unviable, as it assumed the use of <a href="https://www.atse.org.au/news-and-events/article/does-ccs-make-economic-sense/">economically questionable</a> carbon capture and storage technology. </p>
<p>The easiest option is to accelerate the transition away from existing coal power plants. In Queensland, it’s made easier because coal generators are owned by the state. </p>
<p>To achieve a 75% reduction target, the government’s clean energy agency, CleanCo, will have to be expanded substantially, and coal power put out to pasture faster than already planned.</p>
<p>If the state fully greens its power sector, that would remove <a href="https://www.stateoftheenvironment.des.qld.gov.au/pollution/greenhouse-gas-emissions#:%7E:text=In%202018%2C%20emissions%20from%20the,or%2045%25%20of%20total%20emissions.">45% of the state’s emissions</a>. </p>
<p>There are harder emissions to cut. It will need policies encouraging heavy industry to shift towards carbon-free energy sources such as electricity and hydrogen derived from wind and solar energy. The necessary technologies exist for industries such as steelmaking and cement, but have yet to be fully developed. </p>
<p>But the really hard challenge will be when new coal mines and gas fracking projects are proposed. </p>
<p>When buyers burn fossil fuels exported from Queensland, these emissions don’t count towards the state’s targets. But what does count are fugitive emissions of highly potent methane, which have been systematically underestimated. Using satellites, the International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-vastly-underreporting-methane-pollution-report-finds-20230704-p5dll7.html">has estimated</a> Australia’s methane emissions from coal mines to be 81% higher than official estimates, and 92% higher than official estimates of emissions from fracking and oil extraction. </p>
<p>Even by Queensland’s own conservative estimates, these emissions accounted for <a href="https://www.stateoftheenvironment.des.qld.gov.au/pollution/greenhouse-gas-emissions/fugitive-emissions-sector-greenhouse-gas-emissions">11% of the entire state’s total</a> in 2018. </p>
<p>Miles <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/steven-miles-guarantees-future-of-queensland-coal-mining-gas-production/news-story/cbe7fc1e6c85f17cd0a2f04a5773bdbc">has promised</a> new fossil fuel projects will be assessed on a case-by-case basis. </p>
<h2>What do we need the Commonwealth for?</h2>
<p>State ambition will take us a fair distance, but not the whole way. On electrification of transport, states will need the Commonwealth government to lead since vehicle standards are set nationally.</p>
<p>Queensland’s fresh ambition puts us in the paradoxical situation where all of Australia’s states are committed to doing more than the Commonwealth. That is, in part, because states are able to do more. </p>
<p>But with the next federal election less than two years away, a slump in the polls and a very thin record of policy achievements, we may yet see the Albanese government leave behind its timidity and take braver action. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-charts-in-australias-2023-climate-statement-show-we-are-way-off-track-for-net-zero-by-2050-218930">Two charts in Australia's 2023 climate statement show we are way off track for net zero by 2050</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220040/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority</span></em></p>Australia’s federal government has been hollowed out in recent decades. But states can – and still do – deliver. That’s why they are the main drivers of climate action.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2197142023-12-14T19:20:15Z2023-12-14T19:20:15ZCoal will be all but gone by 2034 under Australia’s latest energy roadmap<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565676/original/file-20231214-23-cdm29g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C998%2C652&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s coal power stations will all close in 2038 – five years earlier than previously expected – and variable renewable energy capacity will need to triple by 2030 and increase sevenfold by 2050. </p>
<p>These are two key findings in the latest roadmap for Australia’s largest grid and electricity market, the National Electricity Market. The draft of a document known as <a href="https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp">2024 Integrated System Plan</a>, was released today by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). It lays out a comprehensive path for the next 20 years as we wean ourselves off coal and embrace renewables firmed by storage. </p>
<h2>What is this plan and why does it matter?</h2>
<p>AEMO ensures our energy market runs smoothly, including planning for the transmission needs of the future – and that’s where this blueprint comes in. </p>
<p>Australia’s main grid has historically been based on connecting cheap but polluting coal plants to large cities. As coal plants retire, we need a different grid, drawing renewable power from many different locations, while utilising storage. </p>
<p>Every two years, AEMO releases an updated plan, drawing on detailed modelling and consultation across the energy sector. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-is-coming-3-times-faster-than-expected-governments-must-accept-it-and-urgently-support-a-just-transition-173591">The end of coal is coming 3 times faster than expected. Governments must accept it and urgently support a 'just transition'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Through this process, it arrives at an “optimal development path”. That’s energy-speak for the cheapest and most effective mix of electricity generation, storage and transmission able to meet our reliability and security needs while also supporting government emissions reduction policies in the long-term interests of consumers. </p>
<p>Changes to <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/news-centre/media-releases/aemc-applies-new-emissions-reduction-objective">our national electricity laws</a> to include emissions reductions in its objectives came into effect in November. In response, AEMO is now only using scenarios in line with Australian Governments’ emission reduction targets.</p>
<p>The path laid out in this latest plan is intended to ensure the energy transition already underway will be lower cost, resilient and pragmatic. Importantly, the plan points to where we will need to build important new infrastructure – especially transmission lines – to deliver the new electricity system. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map showing renewable projects and transmission lines Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This map shows current and future renewable projects, energy storage and transmission lines needed to green Australia’s main grid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AEMO</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does the update say?</h2>
<p>The 2024 plan explores three possible scenarios:</p>
<ol>
<li>Step Change, which meets Australia’s emission cut commitments in a growing economy</li>
<li>Progressive Change, reflecting slower economic growth and energy investment</li>
<li>Green Energy Exports, framed around very strong industrial decarbonisation and surging low-emission energy exports.</li>
</ol>
<p>The report suggests the step change scenario is the most likely of these three, closely followed by progressive change.</p>
<p>So what would we see under the step change scenario? </p>
<p>Change – and plenty of it. This scenario forecasts the retirement of 90% of Australia’s remaining 21 gigawatts of coal generation by 2034-35, with the entire fleet retired by 2038. This timeframe is five years earlier than envisaged in the 2022 integrated system plan. </p>
<p>AEMO notes the departure of coal from the grid could be faster still, pointing to higher operating costs, reduced fuel security and high maintenance costs as well as more competition from renewable energy in the wholesale market.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="shuttered coal plant in Victoria" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All of Australia’s coal stations will shut by 2038, under the latest market operator projections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dorothy Chiron/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To manage the farewell to coal alongside increased electricity demand from population growth and electrification of transport, we will need to add about 6 GW of grid-scale renewable capacity every year in the coming decade. That sounds like a lot, but we’re currently rolling out almost 4 GW a year. The plan also predicts a major increase in rooftop solar – 18 GW more than in the previous plan. </p>
<p>AEMO’s 2024 plan suggests close to 10,000km of new transmission lines will be needed to deliver this least-cost system by 2050. There is slightly less transmission here compared to the previous plan, due to higher transmission costs, and more power from sources requiring less transmission. Since the last plan, some minor transmission projects have been built, but the timelines for most larger projects have been pushed back. </p>
<p>These delays are partly due to community opposition to new transmission lines. AEMO has now explicitly flagged social license as a key challenge to delivering the new energy system. </p>
<h2>Firming and gas</h2>
<p>The 2024 plan calls for a quadrupling of the grid’s firming capacity, which smooths out peaks and dips in renewable generation and reduces the chance of energy shortages for consumers. </p>
<p>This will come from grid-scale batteries, pumped hydro, coordinated consumer batteries used as virtual power plants – and, perhaps controversially, gas-powered generation.</p>
<p>Under the plan, there will be 50 GW (and 654GWh) of dispatchable storage, as well as 16 GW of flexible gas. </p>
<p>That’s a significant boost to gas capacity, which was projected to be just over 9GW of gas capacity under the last plan.</p>
<p>Why do we need this capacity? AEMO pictures these gas plants not as day-in, day-out generators, but as a infrequently used backup to ensure the grid stays reliable and secure. </p>
<p>So this increase in gas power capacity doesn’t actually mean a increase in gas generation, or the amount of gas burnt. In fact, AEMO projects a significant decline in gas power over the short to medium term.</p>
<p>But from 2033, as the last coal is burned in our coal plants, AEMO does expect an increase in gas generation. This may be fossil gas, but some may be hydrogen or biomass-derived gas.</p>
<p>Shifting from regular use to infrequent use as a backup will pose challenges for the existing fossil gas network, AEMO points out. </p>
<p>Does this threaten the clean energy transition? No. If we can banish almost all fossil fuel generation from our main grid by 2034, we will be doing well. Even if this were all fossil gas – which it won’t be – the emissions intensity of Australia’s main grid would be miniscule – around 0.01 tonnes per MWh, or 60 times lower <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/Infohub/Markets/Pages/qcmr/december-quarter-2022/Emissions-Reduction.aspx#:%7E:text=The%20emissions%20reduction%20estimate%20for,e%20per%20MWh%20in%202021.">than today</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219714/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan McConnell's current position is supported by the 'Race for 2030' Cooperative Research Centre.</span></em></p>Every two years, we get an updated plan for the future of Australia’s main grid. Under the new plan, coal vanishes even faster.Dylan McConnell, Senior Research Associate, Renewable Energy & Energy Systems Analyst, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193182023-12-07T03:06:28Z2023-12-07T03:06:28ZCOP28: Turning the tap off slowly – why Australia’s decision to end overseas fossil fuel finance matters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564093/original/file-20231207-17-1hmpwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1420%2C23%2C3843%2C1957&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Until recently, financing fossil fuel projects has been relatively easy. </p>
<p>But that is slowly changing. At the COP28 climate negotiations yesterday, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/no-more-aussie-dollars-to-fund-overseas-fossil-fuel-projects-20231205-p5epav.html">Australia</a> announced it will sign the Glasgow Statement and will no longer finance international oil, gas and coal projects. Domestic projects are not part of the agreement.</p>
<p>Major Australian allies such as the United States and United Kingdom, as well as 32 other nations and five public banks, <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20230313124743/https:/ukcop26.org/statement-on-international-public-support-for-the-clean-energy-transition">made this commitment</a> in 2021. It’s an agreement between governments and public financial agencies such as development banks and export credit agencies to end all new public financing for unabated fossil fuel projects. </p>
<p>By joining, Australia will make it harder to mobilise finance for fossil fuel projects that produce millions of tonnes of emissions, and make it easier to fund renewable energy projects that produce very little. </p>
<p>It’s the latest in a welcome series of signals that the international community is slowly turning off the tap for new fossil fuels. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564094/original/file-20231207-23-amgv6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="LNG tanker moving through ocean" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564094/original/file-20231207-23-amgv6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564094/original/file-20231207-23-amgv6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564094/original/file-20231207-23-amgv6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564094/original/file-20231207-23-amgv6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564094/original/file-20231207-23-amgv6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564094/original/file-20231207-23-amgv6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564094/original/file-20231207-23-amgv6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Giant LNG projects can’t happen without finance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Phasing down or phasing out?</h2>
<p>Australia’s decision to join the agreement comes amid intense negotiations at COP28 in Dubai this week over whether governments will commit to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/back-into-caves-cop28-president-dismisses-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels">“phasing out” or “phasing down”</a> fossil fuel use. </p>
<p>It might sound like quibbling, but this linguistic distinction carries major implications for global climate change. Phasing out means ending the routine burning of fossil fuels entirely. Phasing down means we will keep burning them but at a reduced rate – and that means some level of fossil fuel investment will continue. </p>
<p>Under the International Energy Agency’s <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/deebef5d-0c34-4539-9d0c-10b13d840027/NetZeroby2050-ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector_CORR.pdf">2050 net zero plan</a>, there are no new oil, natural gas or coal projects beyond those already approved in 2021. </p>
<p>Even reduced levels of fossil fuel investment will derail the possibility of averting global warming’s worst consequences.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-disasters-and-heat-intensify-can-the-world-meet-the-urgency-of-the-moment-at-the-cop28-climate-talks-217063">As disasters and heat intensify, can the world meet the urgency of the moment at the COP28 climate talks?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why does international public finance for energy matter?</h2>
<p>If the world is to limit global average temperature rise to 2°C, we will need financial institutions on board. That’s because <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/how-can-we-scale-finance-needed-climate-action">current estimates</a> suggest we need A$2.3 trillion every year to 2030 to meet existing targets to build low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure in low- and middle-income countries alone. </p>
<p>To source that kind of finance means we need all financial institutions – including state-backed banks which often favour new coal, gas or oil projects – to pull finance out of new fossil fuels and pump it into clean energy.</p>
<p>Australia is a relatively small player when it comes to public energy finance. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09692290.2023.2272845">Our research</a> shows Australia’s official export credit agency, Export Finance Australia, invested $4.4 billion in fossil fuel projects from 2009 to 2021. That sounds like a lot, but it’s peanuts compared with the US and Canadian equivalents, which shelled out $74.4 billion and $143 billion respectively over the same period. Japan, South Korea and China’s agencies each spent more than $100 billion in that period – and show no indication of ending their fossil fuel investments. </p>
<p>Even so, Australia’s commitment is significant because it adds to the growing number of public and private banks internationally that are reconsidering their investment in fossil fuel infrastructure such as new oil pipelines, gas platforms and coal-fired power plants. The move also places greater pressure on Japan and South Korea, the other wealthy democracies in the Asia-Pacific yet to sign the agreement.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-president-is-wrong-science-clearly-shows-fossil-fuels-must-go-and-fast-219128">COP28 president is wrong – science clearly shows fossil fuels must go (and fast)</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>This is welcome – but long overdue</h2>
<p>As climate change damage has intensified over the past two decades, export credit agencies and development banks have been busy pouring <a href="https://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2022/11/G20-At-A-Crossroads.pdf">tens of billions of dollars a year</a> into fossil fuel projects. It’s not small change – from 2006 to 2022, these funds amount to <a href="https://energyfinance.org/#/">more than $1.5 trillion</a>. That money has directly led to the construction of countless dirty energy projects around the globe. </p>
<p>In 2020, for instance, the US, UK, Japan, Italy and other nations financially backed Total’s controversial multibillion-dollar <a href="https://totalenergies.com/media/news/news/total-announces-signing-mozambique-lng-project-financing">liquefied natural gas project in Mozambique</a>, including long-term infrastructure such as offshore drilling wells, offshore pipelines, and port facilities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564096/original/file-20231207-26-eklvct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="petrol station in Mozambique" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564096/original/file-20231207-26-eklvct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564096/original/file-20231207-26-eklvct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564096/original/file-20231207-26-eklvct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564096/original/file-20231207-26-eklvct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564096/original/file-20231207-26-eklvct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564096/original/file-20231207-26-eklvct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564096/original/file-20231207-26-eklvct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Total’s giant gas project in Mozambique relied on funds from public banks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once built, these fossil fuel infrastructure projects can lock in carbon-intensive futures for developing nations. As scientific research <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921007303">has shown</a>, international public finance for coal-fired power plants early in a country’s energy development leads directly to a long-term reliance on fossil fuels. </p>
<p>Worse, as global population growth is heavily concentrated in less developed countries, these are the countries that will have to dramatically increase energy production to meet the needs of their societies. They cannot be locked in to fossil fuels. </p>
<p>To avoid this, green investment must accelerate and displace brown (fossil fuel) investment to avoid a rapid escalation of fossil fuel dependency across the Global South.</p>
<p>In better news, every dollar public banks turn away from fossil fuel projects is a dollar towards the <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31291">trillions</a> we need invested every year to meet the world’s global clean energy infrastructure goals.</p>
<p>Publicly backed banks play a crucial role in attracting private investment by taking on riskier debts than the market will, especially in developing countries where risk insurance is often needed to help get projects across the line.</p>
<p>Australia’s commitment will be welcomed by our acutely climate-exposed neighbours in the Pacific and give us a stronger position to lead on climate in our region. </p>
<p>The next step will be much harder, but also more significant: making the same commitment at home and actually drying up the pipeline of new gas and coal projects.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vast-subsidies-keeping-the-fossil-fuel-industry-afloat-should-be-put-to-better-use-119954">Vast subsidies keeping the fossil fuel industry afloat should be put to better use</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219318/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Downie receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maxfield Peterson receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Banning public funding for overseas fossil fuel projects will boost Australia’s climate leadership. But can it take the next step and do it domestically?Christian Downie, Associate Professor, Australian National UniversityMaxfield Peterson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2182312023-11-23T19:04:01Z2023-11-23T19:04:01ZPollution from coal power plants contributes to far more deaths than scientists realized, study shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560874/original/file-20231121-4173-worc70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C107%2C5083%2C3435&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kids jump on a trampoline as steam rises from a coal power plant in Adamsville, Ala., in 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kids-jump-on-a-trampoline-at-their-grandparents-home-as-news-photo/1232409457?adppopup=true"> Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Air pollution particles from coal-fired power plants are more harmful to human health than many experts realized, and it’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adf4915">more than twice as likely to contribute to premature deaths</a> as air pollution particles from other sources, new research demonstrates.</p>
<p>In the study, published in the journal Science, colleagues and I mapped how U.S. coal power plant emissions traveled through the atmosphere, then linked each power plant’s emissions with death records of Americans over 65 years old on Medicare.</p>
<p>Our results suggest that air pollutants released from coal power plants were associated with nearly half a million premature deaths of elderly Americans from 1999 to 2020.</p>
<p>It’s a staggering number, but the study also has good news: Annual deaths associated with U.S. coal power plants have fallen sharply since the mid-2000s as <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-reasons-us-coal-power-is-disappearing-and-a-supreme-court-ruling-wont-save-it-187254">federal regulations compelled operators</a> to install emissions scrubbers and many utilities shut down coal plants entirely.</p>
<p>In 1999, 55,000 deaths were attributable to coal air pollution in the U.S., according to our findings. By 2020, that number had fallen to 1,600.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2941/lucas-maps-GIF5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2"><figcaption> How PM2.5 levels from coal power plants in the U.S. have declined since 1999 as more plants installed pollution-control devices or shut down. Lucas Henneman.</figcaption></figure>
<p>In the U.S., coal is being displaced by natural gas and renewable energy for generating electricity. Globally, however, coal use is <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022">projected to increase</a> in coming years. That makes our results all the more urgent for global decision-makers to understand as they develop future policies.</p>
<h2>Coal air pollution: What makes it so bad?</h2>
<p>A landmark study in the 1990s, known as the <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199312093292401">Harvard Six Cities Study</a>, linked tiny airborne particles called PM2.5 to increased risk of early death. Other studies have since linked PM2.5 to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/nano12152656">lung and heart disease, cancer</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.3300">dementia</a> and other diseases. </p>
<p>Following that research, the Environmental Protection Agency <a href="https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/timeline-particulate-matter-pm-national-ambient-air-quality-standards-naaqs">began regulating PM2.5 concentrations in 1997</a> and has lowered the acceptable limit over time.</p>
<p>PM2.5 – particles small enough to be inhaled deep into our lungs – comes from several different sources, including gasoline combustion in vehicles and smoke from wood fires and power plants. It is <a href="https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/particulate-matter-pm-basics#PM">made up of many</a> different chemicals.</p>
<p>Coal is also a mix of many chemicals – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.04.070">carbon, hydrogen, sulfur, even metals</a>. When coal is burned, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/coal/coal-and-the-environment.php">all of these chemicals</a> are emitted to the atmosphere either as gases or particles. Once there, they are transported by the wind and interact with other chemicals already in the atmosphere.</p>
<p>As a result, anyone downwind of a coal plant may be breathing a complex cocktail of chemicals, each with its own potential effects on human health.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2934/lucas-gif1.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2"><figcaption> Two months of emissions from Plant Bowen, a coal-fired power station near Atlanta, show how wind influences the spread of air pollution. Lucas Henneman.</figcaption></figure>
<h2>Tracking coal PM2.5</h2>
<p>To understand the risks coal emissions pose to human health, we tracked how sulfur dioxide emissions from each of the 480 largest U.S. coal power plants operating at any point since 1999 traveled with the wind and turned into tiny particles – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adf4915">coal PM2.5</a>. We used sulfur dioxide because of its known health effects and drastic decreases in emissions over the study period.</p>
<p>We then used a statistical model to link coal PM2.5 exposure to Medicare records of nearly 70 million people from 1999 to 2020. This model allowed us to calculate the number of deaths associated with coal PM2.5.</p>
<p>In our statistical model, we controlled for other pollution sources and accounted for many other known risk factors, like smoking status, local meteorology and income level. We tested multiple statistical approaches that all yielded consistent results. We compared the results of our statistical model with <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aba5692">previous results</a> testing the health impacts of PM2.5 from other sources and found that PM2.5 from coal is twice as harmful as PM2.5 from all other sources.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two people stand outside an older brick home with power plant smokestacks in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Residents living near the Cheswick coal-fired power plant in Springdale, Pa., publicly complained about the amount of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and coal particles from the plant for years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/marti-blake-speaks-to-the-postman-in-front-of-the-smoke-news-photo/874051624">Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The number of deaths associated with individual power plants depended on multiple factors – how much the plant emits, which way the wind blows and how many people breathe in the pollution. Unfortunately, U.S. utilities located many of their plants upwind of major population centers on the East Coast. This siting amplified these plants’ impacts.</p>
<p>In an <a href="https://cpieatgt.github.io/cpie/">interactive online tool</a>, users can look up our estimates of annual deaths associated with each U.S. power plant and also see how those numbers have fallen over time at most U.S. coal plants.</p>
<h2>A US success story and the global future of coal</h2>
<p>Engineers have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.670200410">designing effective scrubbers</a> and other pollution-control devices that can reduce pollution from coal-fired power plants for several years. And the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/Cross-State-Air-Pollution/overview-cross-state-air-pollution-rule-csapr">EPA has rules</a> specifically to encourage utilities that used coal to install them, and most facilities that did not install scrubbers have shut down.</p>
<p>The results have been dramatic: Sulfur dioxide emissions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.670200410">decreased about 90%</a> in facilities that reported installing scrubbers. Nationwide, sulfur dioxide emissions decreased 95% since 1999. According to our tally, deaths attributable to each facility that installed a scrubber or shut down decreased drastically.</p>
<p><iframe id="F1X0R" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/F1X0R/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>As advances in fracking techniques reduced the cost of natural gas, and regulations made running coal plants more expensive, <a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010007819500088">utilities began replacing coal with natural gas</a> plants and renewable energy. The shift to natural gas – a cleaner-burning fossil fuel than coal but still a greenhouse gas <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-announces-a-sweeping-methane-plan-heres-why-cutting-the-greenhouse-gas-is-crucial-for-protecting-climate-and-health-168220">contributing to climate change</a> – led to even further air pollution reductions.</p>
<p>Today, coal contributes about 27% of electricity in the U.S., <a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T02.06#/?f=A">down from 56% in 1999</a>.</p>
<p>Globally, however, the outlook for coal is mixed. While the U.S. and other nations are headed toward a future with substantially less coal, the International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022">expects global coal use to increase</a> through at least 2025.</p>
<p>Our study and others like it make clear that increases in coal use will harm human health and the climate. Making full use of emissions controls and a turn toward renewables are surefire ways to reduce coal’s negative impacts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218231/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucas Henneman receives funding from the Health Effects Institute, the National Institute of Health, and the Environmental Protection Agency.</span></em></p>The longest-running study of its kind reviewed death records in the path of pollution from coal-fired power plants. The numbers are staggering − but also falling fast as US coal plants close.Lucas Henneman, Assistant Professor of Engineering, George Mason UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1925232022-11-17T17:51:17Z2022-11-17T17:51:17ZEnergy transitions: why countries respond differently to the same problem<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493306/original/file-20221103-17-l6lpqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7972%2C5940&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A country’s ability to pursue major energy reforms hinges on the government’s capacity to defuse political opposition.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-wind-farm-coalfired-power-2178791391">WilfriedB/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended global energy markets. Sanctions on Russian exports and the suspension of gas deliveries to several European countries sent <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-response-ukraine-invasion/impact-of-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-on-the-markets-eu-response/%20-%20:%7E:text=Since%20the%20second%20half%20of,energy%20supply%20in%20the%20EU">oil and gas prices</a> skywards. </p>
<p>The magnitude of the shock is reminiscent of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/mar/03/1970s-oil-price-shock">1970s oil crisis</a>, where an embargo imposed on the sale of oil by members of the Organisation of Petrol Exporting Countries led to global fuel shortages and elevated prices. Governments sought to reduce their dependence on imported oil by transitioning their energy systems towards domestic resources. Facing the current crisis, countries are also moving away from importing energy while pursuing decarbonisation. </p>
<p>In both instances, some have been more successful than others in pursuing energy reform. My colleagues and I <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adc9973">analysed</a> the response of industrialised democracies to the 1970s crisis, climate change and to the current energy crisis. We found that a country’s ability to pursue major energy reforms hinges on the government’s capacity to defuse political opposition.</p>
<p>Reforms are costly for both households and businesses. For example, a tax on oil consumption increases the cost of energy for consumers while policies that require businesses to switch to renewable energy impose costs on firms and disrupt fossil fuel company profits. Politicians therefore tend to face strong opposition from both consumers and producers when embarking on energy transitions. </p>
<p>To defuse opposition, we find that governments have two options.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protestors holding banners outside a government building in Brussels." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A protest in Brussels over the cost of energy, September 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/trade-union-members-shout-wave-banners-2204707727">Alexandros Michailidis/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Insulation</h2>
<p>The first is to insulate the policymaking process from voter discontent and business interference. A country’s political institutions shape the extent to which this can be achieved.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/proportional-representation/">Proportional electoral rules</a>, where the distribution of seats corresponds with the proportion of votes for each party, can protect governments from voter backlash. The likelihood that a small change to vote shares will remove a government from power is reduced under this system.</p>
<p>In countries with strong bureaucracies, civil servants enjoy substantial discretion to intervene in the economy to achieve policy goals. Their long-term job security means they face less risk of termination or demotion for upsetting powerful interest groups. This insulates policymaking and can enable governments to enact reform over the wishes of entrenched business opposition.</p>
<p>France’s <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/data/iea-electricity-information-statistics/oecd-net-electrical-capacity_data-00460-en">production of nuclear energy</a> increased 14-fold between 1972 and 1985. Reforms were carried out by a strong and centralised public administration with the authority to implement policy change over the opposition of business and affected communities. The national utility, Electricité de France (EDF), was also owned by the state. This offered the French government additional insulation and granted it control over the direction of the country’s electricity sector.</p>
<p>Although EDF is no longer state owned, the French government holds a majority stake in the company. This allows France to pursue a similar response to the current energy crisis. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, called for the construction of <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220210-macron-calls-for-14-new-reactors-in-nuclear-renaissance">14 new nuclear reactors</a> earlier this year. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A close-up of an orange EDF sign against the backdrop of two large cooling towers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Nogent-sur-Seine nuclear power plant, France.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/nogentsurseine-france-september-1-2020-low-1815319076">olrat/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Compensation</h2>
<p>Governments can also secure support for energy reform by using compensation. Countries with developed welfare states can use existing social policy to soften the impact of energy price increases for households. Governments that enjoy close relationships with business can also negotiate with industry and exchange compensation for their support.</p>
<p>Compensatory bargaining with industry associations and labour unions allowed Germany to transition away from oil in the 1970s. From 1973 to 1985, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.004%20and%20https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/data/iea-electricity-information-statistics/oecd-net-electrical-capacity_data-00460-en">subsidy schemes</a> enabled a 30% increase in coal power and a 13-fold increase in nuclear energy generation. At the same time the government used the welfare system to ease the burden of higher energy costs for households through financial support.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial shot of a power station on the bank of a river, with a plume of smoke rising from the chimney." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal-fired power station on the banks of the River Rhine, Germany.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rhine-river-coalfired-power-station-lower-769841080">riekephotos/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Germany is again using compensatory strategies as it transitions away from fossil fuels. The country negotiated the <a href="https://www.bmuv.de/en/topics/climate-adaptation/climate-protection/national-climate-policy/translate-to-english-fragen-und-antworten-zum-kohleausstieg-in-deutschland">“coal compromise”</a> between 2018 and 2020. The scheme provides €40 billion (£35 billion) to coal companies and coal mining regions in return for political support for the plan to phase-out coal production by 2038.</p>
<h2>Retreat</h2>
<p>When governments can pursue neither insulation nor compensation, they let markets drive change. </p>
<p>Majoritarian electoral rules, a small welfare state and limited coordination between the state and business have restricted the ability of US governments to pass costly energy reforms.</p>
<p>Attempts to reduce dependence on imported oil during the 1970s – from gasoline taxes to energy efficiency regulations – <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/675589#:%7E:text=In%20November%20of%201970%2C%20President,way%20to%20promote%20unleaded%20gasoline.">withered</a> in the face of political opposition. The case is similar for climate policy. Successive US governments have struggled to pass major reforms, whether it be an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1993/06/11/miscalculations-lobby-effort-doomed-btu-tax-plan/d756dac3-b2d0-46a4-8693-79f6f8f881d2/">energy tax</a> in 1993 or the then US president Barack Obama’s plan to impose <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/6/19/18684054/climate-change-clean-power-plan-repeal-affordable-emissions">emissions limits on power plants</a> in 2015.</p>
<p>In response to the current energy crisis, the focus has been on markets. The US government has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/15/fist-bumps-as-joe-biden-arrives-to-reset-ties-with-pariah-saudi-arabia?CMP=share_btn_tw">attempted to reduce energy prices</a> by expanding domestic oil production and lobbying Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output.</p>
<p>Yet even countries with a low capacity for insulation or compensation can still pursue energy reform. To do this, policies must not impose visible and direct costs on society. A recent example is the US’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/19/fact-sheet-the-inflation-reduction-act-supports-workers-and-families/">Inflation Reduction Act</a>. Instead of reducing emissions through taxation, penalties or fines, the legislation relies on subsidies for clean technologies funded by general tax revenues. By using carrots and no sticks, many of the political difficulties associated with major energy reforms can be avoided.</p>
<p>Energy transitions are deeply political processes. While the current energy crisis is an opportunity to accelerate the transition towards clean energy, the scale and pace of such change will depend on the capacity of governments to defuse political opposition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192523/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jared Finnegan's research has received funding from the Balzan Foundation (via Professor Robert Keohane) and the European Union.</span></em></p>The current energy crisis is an opportunity to accelerate the transition towards clean energy – but some countries are better than others at pursuing major energy reform.Jared J. Finnegan, Lecturer in Public Policy, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1913342022-09-29T06:30:32Z2022-09-29T06:30:32ZHow did Victoria cut emissions by almost 30% - while still running mostly on coal?<p>In the 15 years to 2020, Victoria’s emissions fell by almost 30%, according to a new <a href="https://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0036/598257/Victorian-Greenhouse-Gas-Emissions-Report-2020.pdf">government report</a>. You might wonder how is this possible, given most of the state’s brown coal stations are still running and we’re still driving petrol cars. </p>
<p>One reason: the closure of Hazelwood, a power station once responsible for <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/hazelwood-shutdown-victorias-dirtiest-power-station-set-to-close-early-next-year-20160923-grn0ph.html">up to 15%</a> of the state’s emissions before it closed in 2017. Another is that renewable power has come gushing into the grid. Just under 30% of the state’s power <a href="https://parliament.vic.gov.au/file_uploads/VRET_2020-21_Progress_Report_xssr5nBs.pdf">was renewable</a> in 2020-21. </p>
<p>Emissions covering land use, changes in land use and forestry can be confusing – or used to confuse – as this sector can sometimes be a source of emissions and at other times be a net sink depending on weather patterns and farming practices, including land–clearing. These changes are not always the result of government policies. If we exclude the land use sector, Victoria’s reductions still come in at 20 percent below 2005. </p>
<p>So Victoria’s numbers are compelling, and the progress has been substantial. That’s likely to continue, following the government’s pledge to build major new <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/27/victoria-pledges-nations-most-ambitious-renewable-energy-storage-targets">electricity storage</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487210/original/file-20220929-24-ryakch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="windfarm hamilton vic" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487210/original/file-20220929-24-ryakch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487210/original/file-20220929-24-ryakch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487210/original/file-20220929-24-ryakch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487210/original/file-20220929-24-ryakch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487210/original/file-20220929-24-ryakch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487210/original/file-20220929-24-ryakch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487210/original/file-20220929-24-ryakch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More and more renewables have come online, like this windfarm near Hamilton, Victoria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How does Victoria compare to other states and territories?</h2>
<p>Victoria’s economy is <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/snapshots/economy-composition-snapshot/">second only in size</a> to New South Wales, at around 23% of the national economy to NSW’s 31%. The differing structure of state and territory economies offers a partial explanation of their differences in both absolute emissions and changes over the last couple of decades. </p>
<p>Despite the common belief Victoria’s economy is dirtier than average due to its reliance on very high polluting brown coal, it’s actually the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/national-greenhouse-accounts-2020/state-and-territory-greenhouse-gas-inventories-annual-emissions">least emissions intensive</a> of the mainland states when measured as emissions per unit of gross state product. Despite these changes, the emissions intensity of Victoria’s electricity sector remains the highest in the country, by our calculations. </p>
<p>Over the 15-year period, emissions from Victoria’s brown coal generators fell by one-third, much higher than the national reduction of 13%. This was partly due to the closure of the Hazelwood generation plant in 2017 and to the growth in renewables from effectively zero in 2005 to 25% share of energy consumption by 2020. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/historic-new-deal-puts-emissions-reduction-at-the-heart-of-australias-energy-sector-188296">Historic new deal puts emissions reduction at the heart of Australia's energy sector</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Victoria’s transport sector contributes more to emissions than the national average, though this is offset by lower emissions from agriculture and fugitive emissions from coal mining and gas extraction than the average. </p>
<p>Across the country, COVID was responsible for a 6% fall in transport emissions from 2019 to 2020, although emissions had been slowly rising before that. Unlike many other countries, Australia didn’t see significant COVID-related emissions reductions in other sectors such as electricity or manufacturing.</p>
<p>Despite its reliance on brown coal for power generation, Victoria has made real progress – the most out of any of the eastern coal states. South Australia, which has been streaking ahead on renewables, <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/climate-change/south-australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions">reached a 31% cut</a> in emissions in 2020. </p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>Nationally and at a state level, we have commitment to net zero emissions by 2050. Victoria has a target to cut emissions 50% by 2030, while the Commonwealth Government recently legislated a 43% target. </p>
<p>While that’s positive, neither the commonwealth or any state has a comprehensive policy framework to meet these targets. Given we have an interconnected grid across most of the country, nationally consistent policies should be a priority.</p>
<p>As with the rest of Australia, Victoria’s high-polluting electricity sector is projected to do more than its proportional share of meeting the target. In six years, the Yallourn power station will close – four years ahead of schedule. And in 2035, the huge Loy Yang A station will shut forever – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/29/agl-to-unveil-plan-to-close-coal-fired-power-station-loy-yang-a-a-decade-early#:%7E:text=AGL-,AGL%20will%20close%20Victoria's%20coal%2Dfired%20power%20station,Yang%20A%20a%20decade%20early&text=AGL%20Energy%20will%20shut%20down,Victoria%20from%202045%20to%202035.">ten years ahead</a> of schedule. </p>
<p>The Australian Energy Market Operator is <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2022/2022-electricity-statement-of-opportunities.pdf?la=en">already planning</a> for a future without the brown coal generators, possibly within 10 years time. </p>
<p>To replace them means major new growth in renewables. But there are several challenges we have to meet first. </p>
<p>First is building transmission lines to connect renewables in regional Victoria to the grid. The old grid isn’t up to the task, as renewable developers in Mildura <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-world-first-power-plant-aimed-at-solving-mildura-s-rhombus-of-regret-20220921-p5bjq3.html">have found</a>. </p>
<p>Major increases in interstate transmission capacity will be required between Victoria and both New South Wales and Tasmania. It’s questionable whether all this infrastructure can be built on time and on budget.</p>
<p>The second challenge is ensuring supply remains reliable as coal closes. </p>
<p>Major investment is needed in energy storage, through grid scale and smaller batteries and pumped hydro to meet extended periods of low supply from renewables. The Victorian government this week made a <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/australias-biggest-renewable-energy-storage-targets">pre-election pledge </a>to fund short and long term storage, from batteries to pumped hydroelectricity to hydrogen. This could help, but it will also require collaboration. The state government is working with other energy ministers to develop policies to ensure reliability. It cannot be delivered too soon.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1468438658713718790"}"></div></p>
<p>Getting fossil fuels out of electricity is low hanging fruit. To cut emissions outside this sector will be harder. </p>
<p>For Victoria, the role of natural gas is particularly difficult. Domestic use of gas is far more important than in other states. While the government has a <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/renewable-energy/victorias-gas-substitution-roadmap">gas substitution roadmap</a>, it has yet to demonstrate it has a clear plan to encourage households and small businesses off gas. The winner of the November state election will inherit a tricky political problem if the state’s emission targets are to be met.</p>
<p>So spare a moment to appreciate the great progress Victoria has made – even though we know the hardest yards are ahead.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/now-we-begin-10-simple-ways-to-make-australias-climate-game-truly-next-level-190427">Now, we begin: 10 simple ways to make Australia's climate game truly next-level</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191334/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood owns shares through his superannuation fund in companies that may have an interest in issues covered in this article. </span></em></p>The answer? By closing a highly polluting power station - and ramping up renewables.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1852252022-06-17T01:14:15Z2022-06-17T01:14:15ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Tony Wood on the unprecedented energy crisis<p>As the energy crisis continues to grip Australia’s east coast with consumers told to limit their consumption and warnings of blackouts Tony Wood, director of the energy program at the Grattan Institute, speaks with Michelle Grattan about why this has happened and what can be done to fix the system. </p>
<p>The crisis is unprecedented, Wood says. “We’ve certainly seen situations where things have got very tight[…] But this sort of extended period when we’ve had major power outages and real stress on the entire system for such a long time has never been seen before.”</p>
<p>He says the crisis could have been minimised if past governments had worked to “address climate change” and “bring on more renewables” as well as all the technology to support a renewables industry. </p>
<p>That being said, Wood points out there are other factors also driving the crisis. </p>
<p>“We still would have had the weather patterns we had in the south, on the east coast of Australia, that caused all the rain and caused all the flooding of the coal mines that interrupted power supply. And of course, we wouldn’t have prevented the Ukraine war and we probably would have had real stress on the gas supply system.”</p>
<p>Wood argues that “things became very complicated very quickly”, as the crisis developed. </p>
<p>On whether the crisis is in part a result of power companies playing the system, he says: “I don’t honestly think the companies were trying to game the system, but I think the commercial arrangements were so complicated [that the Australian Energy Market Operator taking over the system] was the only solution.”</p>
<p>Some have suggested the crisis has been worsened because many assets have been privatised. Wood disagrees. “I don’t think this is a fundamental failure of privatisation […] I do think it’s a fundamental physical problem and government ownership wouldn’t have made much difference.”</p>
<p>“Transitions are always difficult things […] I think we can see where we’re going. It’s got to be a system which is overwhelmingly dominated by renewable energy.”</p>
<p>“In the short term, we are going to manage this transition carefully, which means as we adopt more and more renewables, we’re going to need some of these coal-fired power stations and gas-fired power stations to maintain the stability and the reliability of the system. They should only be there as necessary to support that transition.”</p>
<p>“I have no doubt we can move to net zero by 2050. But remember, it will be net zero. It won’t be absolute zero. And of course, the sooner we start really seriously creating momentum in that direction, the more likely we are to get there and the more likely it is we’ll get there without too much cost.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185225/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan speaks to the Grattan Institute's Tony Wood about the factors that have lead to the crisis, previous governments' failure to plan for transition to renewable sources and the way out.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1844712022-06-09T20:10:46Z2022-06-09T20:10:46ZIf the opposition wants a mature discussion about nuclear energy, start with a carbon price. Without that, nuclear is wildly uncompetitive<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467921/original/file-20220609-24-bfsenj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C14%2C4786%2C2334&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The idea of nuclear power in Australia has been hotly debated for decades. Most of this discussion has been unproductive, focusing on symbolism and identity politics rather than the realities of energy policy. For that reason alone, we should welcome the commitment by opposition party leaders David Littleproud and Peter Dutton to a <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/nationals-leader-david-littleproud-to-write-to-anthony-albanese-calling-for-action-on-nuclear-power-in-australia/news-story/707c0e461d7316e852d59cdecacc0160">mature conversation</a> about nuclear power, free of political taboos.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1534317069692436488"}"></div></p>
<p>Far and away the most important such taboo is the unwillingness of either Labor or the LNP to consider an effective price on carbon. A string of inquiries into nuclear power such as the 2006 Switkowski Review and the 2016 South Australian Royal Commission concluded nuclear power will never be commercially viable without a high price on carbon dioxide emissions.</p>
<p>The reasoning behind this conclusion is simple. Nuclear power directly competes with coal-fired electricity as a source of continuous 24-hour generation. But building nuclear plants is much more expensive than new coal-fired plants. In Australia, nuclear power would compete with existing coal plants, the construction costs of which were recovered long ago.</p>
<p>So nuclear power could only replace our ageing coal plants if its operating costs are lower. But as long as coal generators are permitted to dump their waste (carbon dioxide and particulate matter) into the atmosphere at no cost, nuclear power can’t compete, except in rare periods of ultra-high coal prices. As energy minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-police-probe-chinese-criminal-syndicate-money-in-vic-nsw-bowen-energy-ministers-agree-new-plan-20220609-p5asd8.html">pointed out yesterday</a>, nuclear is “the most expensive form of energy.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467914/original/file-20220609-13-38bcqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="turbine and nuclear power" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467914/original/file-20220609-13-38bcqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467914/original/file-20220609-13-38bcqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467914/original/file-20220609-13-38bcqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467914/original/file-20220609-13-38bcqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467914/original/file-20220609-13-38bcqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467914/original/file-20220609-13-38bcqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467914/original/file-20220609-13-38bcqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Without a carbon price, nuclear will struggle to find a place complementing renewables.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why is a carbon price fundamental to nuclear being able to compete?</h2>
<p>Take the example of the most recent nuclear plant under construction in the developed world, the UK’s Hinkley Point C plant. In 2012, the plant’s owners <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/dec/21/hinkley-point-c-dreadful-deal-behind-worlds-most-expensive-power-plant">negotiated</a> a guaranteed price for power of around $A160 per megawatt hour, pegged to inflation. That’s extraordinarily expensive. </p>
<p>In Australia, the typical wholesale price for coal power in our National Electricity Market is typically $A40 to $A60, though it fluctuates and is currently very high. Even if the costs of nuclear power fall substantially, and the market price of coal remains high, there will still be a gap which won’t be bridged without a carbon price.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/everything-you-need-to-know-about-mini-nuclear-reactors-56647">Everything you need to know about mini nuclear reactors</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Despite their calls for a mature discussion, none of Australia’s prominent advocates of nuclear power have suggested accepting a carbon price in return for removing the Howard government’s ban on nuclear power. Indeed, when I proposed this <a href="https://theconversation.com/nuclear-power-should-be-allowed-in-australia-but-only-with-a-carbon-price-123170">grand bargain</a> with the support of a number of conservative economists, the idea was <a href="https://johnquiggin.com/2019/12/14/no-takers-for-a-nuclear-grand-bargain/">ignored or dismissed</a> out of hand by LNP members sitting on parliamentary inquiries. </p>
<p>Where does that leave us? Just as the ban had no practical effect, the current calls for its removal are purely symbolic given we have no carbon price to make the economics stack up. Rather, the Coalition’s sudden nuclear push represents just another round in the endless culture wars bedevilling Australian politics for decades.</p>
<h2>If we had a carbon price, large scale nuclear would still not stack up</h2>
<p>Let’s assume our leaders reach agreement on a carbon price. Would nuclear stack up then? </p>
<p>Certainly not in its traditional form. Large, centralised power plants based on 20th century designs are dead, as most pro- and anti-nuclear advocates would agree. That’s due to cost and difficulty of construction. For many years, the most promising candidate for a large 21st century nuclear plant has been the <a href="https://www.westinghousenuclear.com/new-plants/ap1000-pwr">AP1000 reactor</a> built by US company Westinghouse. Massive cost and schedule over-runs on two US projects <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toshiba-accounting-westinghouse-nucle-idUSKBN17Y0CQ">sent Westinghouse broke</a>, almost taking parent company Toshiba with it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467917/original/file-20220609-18-ncvtac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="hinkley point c nuclear station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467917/original/file-20220609-18-ncvtac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467917/original/file-20220609-18-ncvtac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467917/original/file-20220609-18-ncvtac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467917/original/file-20220609-18-ncvtac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467917/original/file-20220609-18-ncvtac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467917/original/file-20220609-18-ncvtac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467917/original/file-20220609-18-ncvtac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The UK’s Hinkley Point C nuclear power station is built to the European Power Reactor design.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are also the European Power Reactor and the <a href="https://home.kepco.co.kr/kepco/EN/G/htmlView/ENGBHP00102.do?menuCd=EN07030102">APR1400</a> designed by Korean company KEPCO. The EPR, as it is now known, is the massively expensive design under construction at Hinkley Point. The same design has had disastrous cost overruns in other projects in France and Finland. Cost details on the APR1400 are harder to find, but there have been no new orders for a decade. </p>
<p>That leaves Chinese and Russian designs. Any prospect of Australia opting for one of these was almost certainly scotched by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Finland, which unwisely went with Russian company Rosatom for its fifth nuclear plant, has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finnish-group-ditches-russian-built-nuclear-plant-plan-2022-05-02/">pulled the plug</a>, while the UK is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-25/u-k-eyes-removing-china-s-cgn-in-energy-plans-as-ties-fray">trying to cut</a> China out of its role in its new reactors. </p>
<h2>What about the small reactors touted as the future?</h2>
<p>The great hope for the future is “small modular reactors”. Here, small reactors of less than 100-megawatt capacity are built in factories and shipped to sites as needed (this is the “modular” bit). While many small reactor outfits have tried to latch on to the idea, <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/projects/carbon-free-power-project">US company NuScale</a> is the only one worth considering. </p>
<p>Even given the smaller size, NuScale has hit major delays. In 2014, the company <a href="https://atomicinsights.com/nuscale-doe-finalize-agreement-announced-six-months-ago/">predicted</a> the first project would be operating by 2023. That date has now been pushed out to 2030, though it hopes the first unit will be in place just before the end of this decade. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467918/original/file-20220609-22-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="nuscale small reactor" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467918/original/file-20220609-22-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467918/original/file-20220609-22-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467918/original/file-20220609-22-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467918/original/file-20220609-22-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467918/original/file-20220609-22-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467918/original/file-20220609-22-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467918/original/file-20220609-22-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Small modular reactors like this mock-up from NuScale are much smaller than traditional nuclear plants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NuScale-Upper-One-Third-Mockup.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Let’s suppose, though, that everything goes right for nuclear. Imagine NuScale reactors can arrive on time and on budget, that Australia has a carbon tax high enough to make nuclear competitive with coal, and cheaper alternatives of firmed renewables (battery-backed solar and wind) run into issues. How long would it take before we could actually generate nuclear power in Australia?</p>
<p>Work on the legislative framework and the regulatory authority could be done in advance. But it would be silly to spend large amounts if the design isn’t proven. That means that we couldn’t start design approvals, site selections – which would be controversial – and impact assessment until the early 2030s. </p>
<p>With a determined push and broad social consensus, construction might start in the late 2030s and start producing electricity some time in the 2040s. That could be worthwhile as a backup to our energy system, which by then will be based mainly on solar and wind. </p>
<p>But to get to this point two decades away, the very first requirement for a mature discussion of nuclear energy is accepting a carbon price. </p>
<p>Until we see that, the opposition is offering a fantasy, not an energy policy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-is-buying-a-fleet-of-nuclear-submarines-but-nuclear-powered-electricity-must-not-come-next-168110">Yes, Australia is buying a fleet of nuclear submarines. But nuclear-powered electricity must not come next</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184471/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin has appeared before numerous public inquiries into nuclear power in Australia</span></em></p>Renewed interest in nuclear energy will go nowhere unless we talk about carbon pricing. As energy minister Chris Bowen points out, nuclear is extremely expensive.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1843042022-06-02T07:57:09Z2022-06-02T07:57:09ZWhy did gas prices go from $10 a gigajoule to $800 a gigajoule? An expert on the energy crisis engulfing Australia<p>Australia’s east coast has been plunged into an energy crisis just as winter takes hold, which will see many people struggle to heat their homes due to soaring gas bills. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Origin Energy this week confirmed it <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/coal-crunch-hits-origin-s-eraring-power-plant-as-energy-crisis-deepens-20220601-p5aq81.html">could not source</a> enough black coal to power Australia’s largest coal plant at full capacity, deepening shocks to the energy market.</p>
<p>The electricity price surge is so dire, small energy retailers such as ReAmped Energy are <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/05/31/electricity-retailers-price-hikes/">advising customers</a> to switch energy providers or be hit with much higher bills. </p>
<p>So what on Earth is going on? It has a lot to do with Russia’s war on Ukraine, which has disrupted the global energy market. Sanctions on Russian coal and gas exports mean there’s simply not enough supply to meet demand. As a consequence, the global price of gas and coal has soared. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1531588321519931397"}"></div></p>
<h2>Why are energy prices are getting so high?</h2>
<p>Australia is a net exporter of gas and coal. This means we export most of our fossil fuels overseas. As the global price of coal increases, the cost of generating domestic electricity from coal is increasing. </p>
<p>What’s more, many of Australia’s coal generators <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/some-coal-power-capacity-to-return-this-week-aiding-wholesale-prices-20220510-p5ak2d">are ageing</a>, which means they fail more often. At present, nearly 30% of our coal generation is offline. </p>
<p>The price spike comes as coal plant owners look for the exit. Australia’s largest coal plant, Eraring, has been operating for 35 years. In February, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-largest-coal-plant-will-close-7-years-early-but-theres-still-no-national-plan-for-coals-inevitable-demise-177317">Origin announced</a> it would shut Eraring seven years ahead of schedule in 2025 because renewable energy was impacting profitability.</p>
<p>Origin’s new challenge is securing enough coal to run Eraring at its full 2.8 gigawatt capacity. The problem is set to persist into 2023. </p>
<p>This is not only <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/coal-crunch-hits-origin-s-eraring-power-plant-as-energy-crisis-deepens-20220601-p5aq81.html">due to</a> a difficult global environment, but also domestic delivery difficulties due to supply chain disruptions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466727/original/file-20220602-12-m7fhda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial view of Eraring" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466727/original/file-20220602-12-m7fhda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466727/original/file-20220602-12-m7fhda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466727/original/file-20220602-12-m7fhda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466727/original/file-20220602-12-m7fhda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466727/original/file-20220602-12-m7fhda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466727/original/file-20220602-12-m7fhda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466727/original/file-20220602-12-m7fhda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eraring power station is set to shut seven years ahead of schedule.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In an attempt to meet rising electricity demand, some energy generators have increased gas-powered generation. However, given Australia exports so much of its domestic gas resources, any additional gas for domestic consumption must be acquired from the rising international market. </p>
<p>To make matters worse, this week’s cold snap along the east coast led to a spike in demand for electricity as people heated their homes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-why-a-gas-led-economic-recovery-is-a-terrible-na-ve-idea-145009">4 reasons why a gas-led economic recovery is a terrible, naïve idea</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So what’s the overall effect? To give you an idea, a few months ago gas was trading at approximately A$10 a gigajoule. This week, wholesale prices in Victoria reached up to $800 a gigajoule – more than 80 times normal levels. </p>
<p>This gargantuan spike caused the Australian Energy Market Operator to <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/wholesale-gas-prices-capped-in-apocalyptic-energy-market-20220530-p5apqf">step in</a>, temporarily capping prices at $40 a gigajoule until June 10.</p>
<h2>Will these prices continue?</h2>
<p>These extraordinary prices will likely continue once the Australian Energy Market Operator’s cap is removed. </p>
<p>The Australian Energy Regulator <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/wholesale-gas-prices-capped-in-apocalyptic-energy-market-20220530-p5apqf">has warned</a> wholesale power prices are likely to remain high for at least two years. This will hit energy retailers and consumers hard. </p>
<p>However, those likely to experience the most pain are small energy retailers on the east coast because of the so-called “default market offer”. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1531620329889710085"}"></div></p>
<p>Established in 2019, the default market offer serves as a price safety net for residential and small business customers by setting a price cap on how much energy retailers can charge households and businesses. </p>
<p>When advertising or promoting offer pricing, retailers must show the price of their <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/retail-markets/guidelines-reviews/default-market-offer-prices-2022%E2%80%9323">offer in comparison</a> to the default market offer price. </p>
<p>The default market offer for 2022 was <a href="https://theconversation.com/expect-more-power-price-hikes-a-1970s-style-energy-shock-is-on-the-cards-183911">released last week</a>.</p>
<p>Alarmingly, it shows that from July 1, default offers will rise by 14% in New South Wales, 11% in Queensland and 7% in South Australia. In Victoria, the Essential Services Commission determines the default offer, and set the cap at 5%.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-our-gas-and-electricity-prices-are-suddenly-sky-high-184303">4 reasons our gas and electricity prices are suddenly sky-high</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So, while consumers will pay a bit more under the increased price cap, energy retailers will pay <em>a lot</em> more in a dramatically rising wholesale electricity market. </p>
<p>Large retailers such as AGL may cope, but smaller players will be hit hard and may not be able to survive given these price hikes are on top of <a href="https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2022/06/02june-forecast-tight-supplydemand-andgas/">rises in 2021</a>.</p>
<p>This is what led ReAmped Energy, a small energy retailer with 70,000 customers, to advise customers to look elsewhere. </p>
<h2>Should we be surprised?</h2>
<p>The state of the energy market reflects a deepening global resource crisis. However, in Australia, the writing has been on the wall for a long time. </p>
<p>Australia exports 85% of its gas. <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-plenty-of-gas-but-our-bills-are-ridiculous-the-market-is-broken-125130">Between 2000 and 2015</a>, Australia’s gas exports tripled. Between 2015 and 2019 they tripled again. </p>
<p>As more Australian gas is exported overseas, the domestic electricity price has risen. Exporting most of our gas means we often do not have enough for domestic consumption and purchasing it on the international spot market is costly. </p>
<p>The price of electricity rose a whopping <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-17/gas-exports-blamed-for-electricity-price-rises-job-losses/11121120">130% between 2015</a> – when liquefied natural gas exports began at Gladstone in Queensland – and 2019. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-plenty-of-gas-but-the-price-is-extreme-the-market-is-broken-125130">Australia has plenty of gas, but the price is extreme. The market is broken</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Despite these increases, robust export controls have not been implemented. Unlike Western Australia where liquefied natural gas producers must reserve 15% for the domestic market, the east coast has no reservation policy. </p>
<p>Adding to this is the failure to support a swift integration of renewables into the national grid through stronger, focused regulatory mechanisms and improved policy has not occurred. </p>
<p>All this has created, as new federal climate and energy minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-02/bowen-gas-supply-crisis-perfect-storm/101120724">put it</a>, a “perfect storm”.</p>
<p>In his press conference today, Bowen blamed the previous government’s stalling on renewables and changing energy policies, saying: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Their ad hoc-ery, their changes of policy approaches, have left Australia ill-prepared and our energy markets ill-prepared for the challenges we are facing today in relation to gas and energy supply. </p>
</blockquote>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1531828305699422208"}"></div></p>
<h2>Is the government doing anything about it?</h2>
<p>One response could be for the government <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-02/what-can-government-do-about-gas-prices-trigger/101118474">to trigger</a> an emergency domestic gas pricing mechanism and declare this to be a shortfall year, a 2017 mechanism which hasn’t yet been used. </p>
<p>If 2022 is deemed to be a shortfall year, export restrictions would be imposed upon liquefied natural gas producers to protect domestic supply. This could help pricing, because gas reservations can change the supply balance and allow domestic prices to adjust. </p>
<p>It may also assist with supply, given the recent cold snap resulting in the Australian Energy Market Operator to issue a separate warning of gas supply shortfalls in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. </p>
<p>However, Bowen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/02/gas-market-trigger-wont-fix-bin-fire-left-by-coalition-energy-minister-chris-bowen-says">today ruled out</a> using the emergency mechanism to deal with the energy price hikes. He said it wasn’t designed to limit prices, and wouldn’t have any impact until January next year. </p>
<p>We are only in the early days of June, and more colder-than-normal weather is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-it-so-cold-right-now-and-how-long-will-it-last-a-climate-scientist-explains-184155">forecast for coming winter months</a>. Whether it uses the domestic gas pricing mechanism or not, the federal government must take steps to address rising energy prices and make the coming winter easier for Australians to bear.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-it-so-cold-right-now-and-how-long-will-it-last-a-climate-scientist-explains-184155">Why is it so cold right now? And how long will it last? A climate scientist explains</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184304/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia exports most of its coal and gas, and prices have skyrocketed. We could be facing a winter of pain for gas users.Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1793362022-03-20T19:01:45Z2022-03-20T19:01:45ZEnergy bills are spiking after the Russian invasion. We should have doubled-down on renewables years ago<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452943/original/file-20220318-25-i7k9kb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2121%2C1406&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is happening half a planet away from Australia. </p>
<p>But the ripple effects are plain to see at every petrol station and, potentially soon, your electricity bill. </p>
<p>As a result of the invasion and Western sanctions on Russian exports, energy prices have skyrocketed. </p>
<p>If that makes you think nations should have taken steps to secure alternatives to fossil fuels years ago, you’re not alone. As it is, the much higher energy prices are likely to accelerate the exit of coal – and gas – from our energy grids. </p>
<p>This should be a wake-up call. It doesn’t matter that Australia is far from the battlefield. Everyone in the world will be affected in some way. </p>
<h2>What’s the link between the invasion and Australian energy prices?</h2>
<p>You might think Australia’s domestic supply of coal and gas means we’d be immune to price rises. Not so. </p>
<p>Due to formal sanctions and informal shunning of Russian exports, oil, coal and gas are now extremely expensive on a global scale. Thermal coal prices have increased five-fold to an unprecedented ~$A500 per tonne. Oil is ~$140 a barrel and up 60% year on year. Natural gas in Europe is around 50% higher than last October, but since the invasion, prices have spiked as high as ~200% higher than 2021 levels. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-push-europe-towards-energy-independence-and-faster-decarbonisation-177914">Will Russia's invasion of Ukraine push Europe towards energy independence and faster decarbonisation?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Coal buyers are locking in supply, concerned that Russian sanctions will continue. Russia is the <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/030722-factbox-russian-metals-industrys-reliance-on-china-set-to-rise-as-sanctions-disrupt-supplies">third largest exporter of coal</a> and its existing customers are now under pressure to find alternative supplies. </p>
<p>Russia’s aggression is not just resulting in a major humanitarian and political crisis. It is also causing pain at the bowser for Australian consumers due to the surge in oil pricing and may soon result in higher electricity bills. </p>
<p>Australia’s east-coast electricity market is still heavily reliant upon coal. While many coal-fired power stations have existing supply contracts, the much higher global coal price may increase the cost of any extra coal purchases by existing power stations. </p>
<p>Not only that, but our gas-fired power stations are facing potential increases in operating costs due to much higher global gas prices. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, we may see the result in rising power bills. The price of future contracts for wholesale electricity next year in NSW are now twice what they were a year ago. Assuming this flows through to end-users, prices for residential customers could increase by as much as 10–15%. </p>
<h2>So what should Australia do?</h2>
<p>While it’s too late to dodge this bullet, we can prepare for future shocks by doubling down on firmed renewables. The faster we move, the less we’ll be hit by the price and reliability risks of coal. </p>
<p>Already under pressure from cheaper renewable technologies, coal power station operators now find themselves potentially facing much higher costs in the short-term. There’s no relief for coal in the long term either, with the rapid rise of renewables and other zero-carbon technologies.</p>
<p>Not only that, but most of our coal power stations are near the end of their lives, and industry doesn’t want to build new ones. That means coal will become more and more expensive, as the plants become <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/inputs-assumptions-methodologies/2020/aep-elical-assessment-of-ageing-coal-fired-generation-reliability.pdf">increasingly unreliable</a>. </p>
<p>Wind and solar technologies are now much cheaper per unit of energy generated and can be integrated with energy storage to provide dispatchable “firmed” energy. The faster we transition to renewables firmed by storage, the better. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452948/original/file-20220318-36080-1ywlot9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Wind solar and battery farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452948/original/file-20220318-36080-1ywlot9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452948/original/file-20220318-36080-1ywlot9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452948/original/file-20220318-36080-1ywlot9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452948/original/file-20220318-36080-1ywlot9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452948/original/file-20220318-36080-1ywlot9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452948/original/file-20220318-36080-1ywlot9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452948/original/file-20220318-36080-1ywlot9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renewables firmed by storage now offer a cheaper, more reliable alternative.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If we do this, our new grid will also be more reliable. Continuing to rely upon coal is like relying upon a 1970s car to travel from Sydney to Melbourne on the hottest day of the year. </p>
<p>State governments around the nation are already embracing this approach, with the New South Wales government moving ahead with plans for 12 gigawatts (GW) of new renewables and storage and the Victorian government announcing plans for 9GW of offshore windfarms. </p>
<p>Governments must carefully design policies to avoid guaranteeing profits for private sector players while socialising any losses across taxpayers and energy consumers. In NSW, <a href="https://econpapers.repec.org/article/blaajarec/v_3a66_3ay_3a2022_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a136-163.htm">alternatives</a> are being considered.</p>
<p>As European and many other nations scramble to reduce their dependency on Russian coal, oil and gas, Australia now has a once in a generation opportunity to become a leading exporter of new clean energy. </p>
<p>We have truly enormous clean energy resources in the form of free sunlight and wind. To export it, we can either run underseas cables to neighbouring countries, or convert cheap renewable power into <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-hydrogen-is-coming-and-these-australian-regions-are-well-placed-to-build-our-new-export-industry-174466">green hydrogen</a> and ship this to the world just as we currently do with LNG. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452947/original/file-20220318-17-cyct81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Workers installing solar" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452947/original/file-20220318-17-cyct81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452947/original/file-20220318-17-cyct81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452947/original/file-20220318-17-cyct81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452947/original/file-20220318-17-cyct81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452947/original/file-20220318-17-cyct81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452947/original/file-20220318-17-cyct81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452947/original/file-20220318-17-cyct81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renewables draw energy from sources unaffected by war.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What else can we expect to see?</h2>
<p>Surging fossil fuel prices has supercharged the existing disruption to an already rapidly changing domestic energy industry. In the past month, Origin announced it would abandon coal more rapidly, with the closure of its NSW coal-fired power station, Eraring, in 2025. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, AGL has been pursuing a “demerger” with a view to splitting off its coal assets and pursuing new energy technologies. This comes as Australian tech billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes and Canadian asset fund Brookfield <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-06/brt-agl-brookfield-bid-rejected/100887042">offered to buy AGL</a> for $8.25 a share, though they were not successful. Their plan was to accelerate the closure of AGL’s coal assets, which would move AGL from the <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org.au/news/new-government-data-reveals-agl-as-australias-biggest-climate-polluter/">highest carbon emitter in Australia</a> to a clean energy company. The age of coal power is ending, and much faster than most of us realise. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-hydrogen-is-coming-and-these-australian-regions-are-well-placed-to-build-our-new-export-industry-174466">Green hydrogen is coming – and these Australian regions are well placed to build our new export industry</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This crisis should spur us to build a future-proofed fleet of “firmed” and well-distributed renewables with a known cost structure. </p>
<p>By doing this, we will protect ourselves from the pain of geopolitically driven fossil fuel prices. And we will have a platform ready if we want to provide clean energy to the world in the form of green hydrogen.</p>
<p>We have had decades to make full use of our wealth of renewable energy resources. We haven’t embraced this as fully as we should have. </p>
<p>It turns out localised clean energy production is not just necessary to tackle climate change. It will prove a vital resource as we navigate the highly turbulent decade we have found ourselves in.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179336/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Nelson is an Associate Professor at Griffith University and the EGM, Energy Markets at Iberdrola Australia, that develops renewable projects and batteries.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joel Gilmore is an Associate Professor at Griffith University and the GM, Energy Policy & Planning at Iberdrola Australia, that develops renewable projects and firming assets.</span></em></p>Australia might be a long way away, but fossil fuel price spikes triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine are hitting households hard. We could have avoided this pain.Tim Nelson, Associate Professor of Economics, Griffith UniversityJoel Gilmore, Associate Professor, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1777202022-02-24T04:13:19Z2022-02-24T04:13:19ZWhy the Australian government should welcome Mike Cannon-Brookes’ plan to takeover AGL<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison has flatly opposed the bid led by tech billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes to buy Australia’s biggest energy company AGL and spend A$20 billion switching it to renewables. This includes closing its coal power stations by 2030. As Morrison <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-relbia-tas">stated</a> this week: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We need to ensure that our coal-fired generation of electricity runs to its life, because if it doesn’t, electricity prices go up, they don’t go down. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Likewise, AGL <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/23/agl-open-to-higher-takeover-bid-but-says-cannon-brookes-plan-to-close-coal-by-2030-is-unrealistic">has dismissed</a> the plan as “unrealistic”. But are they right? Would closing AGL’s three coal power stations by 2030 push up prices and bring chaos to the National Electricity Market (NEM)?</p>
<p>No. In fact, there’s already chaos in the NEM due to increasingly early and disorderly coal retirements. The government should welcome the plan to takeover AGL, because it addresses failures in the market and entails a more orderly tranformation process. </p>
<h2>There’s already chaos</h2>
<p>The bid, made alongside Brookfield Partners, came just days after Origin Energy brought forward the closure date of Eraring, Australia’s largest coal station, by seven years. It was the latest in a string of early <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-largest-coal-plant-will-close-7-years-early-but-theres-still-no-national-plan-for-coals-inevitable-demise-177317">coal closure announcements</a>, and yet there remains no national plan to manage early retirements like this. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-largest-coal-plant-will-close-7-years-early-but-theres-still-no-national-plan-for-coals-inevitable-demise-177317">Australia's largest coal plant will close 7 years early – but there's still no national plan for coal's inevitable demise</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Instead, it’s up to each commercial entity to decide when to close. This means coal generators have no obligation to guarantee reliability beyond providing notice of retirement plans over the short term – five years in <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/vic-coal-plants-five-year-closure-warning/vc4rodvns">Victoria</a>, or three and a half years <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/rule-changes/generator-three-year-notice-closure">elsewhere</a> in the NEM.</p>
<p>As the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/operability/2020/2020-system-strength-and-inertia-report.pdf?la=en">pointed out</a>, owners can technically comply with the notice period while withdrawing generation capacity from the market. Even more chaotically, generators can run down maintenance spending when they’re getting ready to close down, which further reduces reliability.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447701/original/file-20220222-19-1dqilv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447701/original/file-20220222-19-1dqilv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447701/original/file-20220222-19-1dqilv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447701/original/file-20220222-19-1dqilv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447701/original/file-20220222-19-1dqilv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447701/original/file-20220222-19-1dqilv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447701/original/file-20220222-19-1dqilv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447701/original/file-20220222-19-1dqilv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eraring coal plant’s closure has been brought forward by seven years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The NEM was designed to be an “energy only market” – the market signal that retirements are due is supposed to encourage investors to build new generators. Unfortunately, this market design has failed.</p>
<p>Part of the failure stems from the NEM’s design, and partly from the federal government’s failure to implement either a strong climate policy or a coal retirement plan. This adds up to an environment of bad investment. </p>
<p>For example, in its latest update of the <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/generation_information/2022/nem-generation-information-feb-2022.xlsx?la=en">NEM database</a>, AEMO lists 130 gigawatts of prospective solar, wind and solar projects, but only 6.6 gigawatts of these are committed for development in the next 10 years.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-australias-geology-gave-us-an-abundance-of-coal-and-a-wealth-of-greentech-minerals-to-switch-to-173988">How Australia's geology gave us an abundance of coal – and a wealth of greentech minerals to switch to</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Brookfield/Cannon-Brookes plan addresses some of these market failures.</p>
<p>First, it provides a notice period of closure of about eight years, longer than is required by law. That gives a signal to the market and improves energy planning by governments and AEMO. </p>
<p>Second, the new AGL would carry all the risk because it must continue to supply electricity to millions of customers. The new owners of AGL would have to provide enough electricity to cover this load, in real time, or they’ll have to buy that supply from their competitors.</p>
<p>This incentive will mean the owners will build new generation. More renewable energy, which has zero marginal cost, will help reduce the wholesale electricity price, not just for those customers but for all consumers. </p>
<h2>Can renewables fill the gap so quickly?</h2>
<p>The short answer is yes. Coal generators provide around three quarters of the electricity in NSW alone, so replacing it entails a transformation of the grid. There are plans to do exactly that, at the intergovernmental and NSW levels. </p>
<p>So it’s strange the prime minister seems not to have confidence in these plans, given his government has agreed to and funded them both.</p>
<p>First, there’s a nationally agreed <a href="https://aemo.com.au/consultations/current-and-closed-consultations/2022-draft-isp-consultation">Integrated System Plan</a>, which is designed by AEMO with extensive consultation across government and industry. The latest draft plan <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-is-coming-3-times-faster-than-expected-governments-must-accept-it-and-urgently-support-a-just-transition-173591">predicts Australia is on track</a> to see 14 gigawatts of coal retire by 2030 and all coal gone by 2040. </p>
<p>AEMO doesn’t predict any shortfall of supply over that time, as long as new transmission is built to carry the electricity from the new fleets of solar, wind, hydro and batteries.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-is-coming-3-times-faster-than-expected-governments-must-accept-it-and-urgently-support-a-just-transition-173591">The end of coal is coming 3 times faster than expected. Governments must accept it and urgently support a 'just transition'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Second, NSW has its own plan: the <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/government-and-regulation/electricity-infrastructure-roadmap">Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap</a>. This will accelerate construction of Australia’s first Renewable Energy Zone, and is <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/government-and-regulation/electricity-strategy/memorandum-understanding">co-funded</a> by the federal government. </p>
<p>One of the key challenges is to replace the “security” gap as coal retires. Coal power stations maintain the frequency and voltage of the grid. These security services can be thought of as the “quality” of the electricity purchased. You need sufficient quantity and quality of supply to run our devices, from laptops to smelters. Still, <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/batteries-and-renewables-to-provide-secure-energy-future-new-report/">Australia Institute research</a> last year confirmed that batteries and renewable energy can provide such security services, and do it cost effectively.</p>
<p>Solar, wind and battery projects can be built much faster than conventional generators. Elon Musk famously built the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/huge-tesla-battery-in-south-australia-primed-for-big-upgrade-20191119-p53byo.html">biggest battery</a> in the world in South Australia, within 100 days in 2017.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448225/original/file-20220224-32682-ovawi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448225/original/file-20220224-32682-ovawi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448225/original/file-20220224-32682-ovawi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448225/original/file-20220224-32682-ovawi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448225/original/file-20220224-32682-ovawi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448225/original/file-20220224-32682-ovawi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448225/original/file-20220224-32682-ovawi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448225/original/file-20220224-32682-ovawi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s rooftop solar is the world’s cheapest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What might be in store for a new AGL? Self-reliance</h2>
<p>We don’t yet know what new resources the new AGL would invest under a Brookfield/Cannon-Brookes ownership. I believe the most exciting and innovative part of the bid might well be that much of the new investment is in consumer assets.</p>
<p>Australian households could lead the world in decarbonisation by doing it themselves, according to <a href="https://www.rewiringaustralia.org/castles-and-cars">research</a> supported by <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/mike-and-annie-cannon-brookes-pledge-1-5b-to-limit-global-warming-20211019-p591d7">Cannon-Brookes</a>, published last year by Dr Saul Griffith and Rewiring Australia.</p>
<p>Houses can generate a quarter of what they need with rooftop solar. In Australia, rooftop solar in Australia is the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/25/insanely-cheap-energy-how-solar-power-continues-to-shock-the-world">cheapest</a> in the world, at a couple of cents per kilowatt-hour. Batteries allow them to soak up excess solar during the day and use it at night. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/4-ways-to-stop-australias-surge-in-rooftop-solar-from-destabilising-electricity-prices-173592">4 ways to stop Australia's surge in rooftop solar from destabilising electricity prices</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If households also replace their car with an electric vehicle and replace gas appliances with electric ones, it’s possible to reach zero emissions and do it this decade. </p>
<p>The research found it becomes cost effective for households to electrify by around 2025. Mike Cannon-Brookes has already made investments in companies working in this electrification space.</p>
<p>What this might mean for a modern AGL is that much of the A$20 billion it would invest to replace coal might be finance packages to pay for households to ditch fossil energy entirely, and become partially self-reliant from their own solar. </p>
<p>If the new AGL could align the interests of its consumers and the climate, it would achieve more than just shutting old coal clunkers. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-battle-for-agl-heralds-a-new-dawn-for-australian-electricity-177530">The battle for AGL heralds a new dawn for Australian electricity</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177720/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel J Cass is Senior Advisor to the Clean Energy Investor Group.</span></em></p>The plan would address failures in the National Electricity Market, and would see a more orderly transformation process from coal to clean energy.Daniel J Cass, Research Affiliate, The University of Sydney Business School, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1773172022-02-17T04:45:10Z2022-02-17T04:45:10ZAustralia’s largest coal plant will close 7 years early – but there’s still no national plan for coal’s inevitable demise<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446883/original/file-20220217-22-z3qs25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C40%2C5447%2C3590&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a major step forward for Australia’s clean energy transition, the country’s biggest coal-fired power station Eraring is set to close seven years early in 2025, Origin Energy <a href="https://www.originenergy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/HY22_Investor-Pres_FINAL.pdf">announced this morning</a>. </p>
<p>Eraring has been operating for 35 years in the central coast of New South Wales. Last year, it alone was responsible for around 2% of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, based on calculations from <a href="https://opennem.org.au/facility/au/NEM/ERARING/?range=1y&interval=1w">electricity market</a> and <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-update-june-2021">emissions</a> data.</p>
<p>The fundamental reason for its early closure is the brutal impact the growth of renewable energy is having on the profitability of coal plants. Origin has announced it will be building a large, 700 megawatt battery on-site in its place to store renewable energy.</p>
<p>This announcement follows the acceleration of other major coal plant closures: Liddell power station is scheduled to close in 2023, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-death-of-coal-fired-power-is-inevitable-yet-the-government-still-has-no-plan-to-help-its-workforce-156863">Yallourn’s closure</a> was brought forward to 2028, and only last week AGL Energy <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/10/agl-brings-forward-closure-date-of-two-largest-coal-fired-power-plants-as-market-shifts-to-renewables">edged forwards</a> the scheduled closure of two more coal plants. </p>
<p>This is a welcome step with transition planning by Origin – but also underlines the risks of Australia’s clean energy transition accelerating without a national plan for the exit of coal. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1494084585734696960"}"></div></p>
<h2>Why is this happening?</h2>
<p>Old power stations are excellent sites for batteries due to their existing connections to transmission lines and lots of electricity capacity. This has also been announced for the closed <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/hazelwood-to-be-reborn-as-big-battery-site-20211201-p59dp6">Hazelwood</a> and <a href="https://www.lithgowmercury.com.au/story/7087215/wallerawang-could-be-home-to-one-of-the-biggest-battery-hubs-in-australia/">Wallerawang</a> coal power stations.</p>
<p>Over the past 12 months, the market share of renewable energy has increased to <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=1y&interval=1w">over 30%</a>. In particular, the rapid growth of rooftop solar and solar farms in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-ways-to-stop-australias-surge-in-rooftop-solar-from-destabilising-electricity-prices-173592">middle of the day</a> has sent daytime wholesale electricity prices crashing.</p>
<p>To stay open, coal plants are using a variety of coping strategies. This includes cycling their output down on sunny days and ramping back up for higher prices as the sun sets and demand increases at the end of the day. However, this places stress on ageing plants and breakdowns are <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2021/q4-report.pdf?la=en&hash=CD6B71C8573830867349B6A9570E9D22">becoming more common</a>.</p>
<p>Something has to give. Electricity market <a href="http://greenmarkets.com.au/images/uploads/Coal-Plant-Profitability-Is-Eroding_February-2021.pdf">analysis last year</a> found Eraring was the coal plant most exposed to the growth of renewable energy and likely to lose significant money by 2025 – so the writing was on the wall for Eraring. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1494103368989822976"}"></div></p>
<p>As Origin CEO Frank Calabria, <a href="https://www.originenergy.com.au/about/investors-media/origin-proposes-to-accelerate-exit-from-coal-fired-generation/">stated</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>the reality is the economics of coal-fired power stations are being put under increasing, unsustainable pressure by cleaner and lower-cost generation, including solar, wind and batteries.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In announcing the closure, Origin also cited its commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050, and the recommendation of the International Energy Agency that advanced economies close coal plants by 2030. </p>
<h2>What will happen to the market and workforce?</h2>
<p>When the Hazelwood coal power station closed in 2017 with just a few months notice, power prices spiked for several years afterwards and many workers were unable to <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-11/ccep20-10_wiseman_workman_fastenrath_jotzo_after_hazelwood.pdf">find alternative work</a>. </p>
<p>Origin, however, has given three-years notice in accordance with electricity market rules brought in after the shockwaves from Hazelwood’s closure, and announced it will develop a transition plan for its workforce. This includes training, redeployment and prioritising site employees for long-term operational roles.</p>
<p>Origin presented figures showing the energy and capacity gap will be filled by a combination of new storage, Snowy 2.0, a new transmission line to move power between South Australia and NSW, and new renewable energy infrastructure scheduled for NSW.</p>
<p>Consequently, the impact on prices is likely to be modest compared to the Hazelwood closure.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446926/original/file-20220217-27-6s7oxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hard hats on a gate" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446926/original/file-20220217-27-6s7oxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446926/original/file-20220217-27-6s7oxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446926/original/file-20220217-27-6s7oxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446926/original/file-20220217-27-6s7oxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446926/original/file-20220217-27-6s7oxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446926/original/file-20220217-27-6s7oxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446926/original/file-20220217-27-6s7oxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When Hazelwood Power Station closed in 2017, workers hung their hard hats on the gate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Eraring’s closure may provide other coal plants some breathing space. Coal plant owners have effectively been playing a game of chicken, holding on and hoping another plant shuts to tighten supply and increase prices.</p>
<p>But as Origin’s figures illustrate, there’s a lot more renewable energy projects in the pipeline, and its figures don’t include the tremendous growth of rooftop solar, which last year <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-rooftop-solar-milestone-as-australia-tops-3gw-in-2021/">saw over 3,000 megawatts installed</a>. </p>
<p>So this is unlikely to be the last of the coal plant closures in our near future. Indeed, in the draft <a href="https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp">2022 Integrated System Plan</a> (a “roadmap” for the electricity system), the Australian Energy Market Operator <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-is-coming-3-times-faster-than-expected-governments-must-accept-it-and-urgently-support-a-just-transition-173591">projects as much as</a> 60% of coal plant capacity could be gone by 2030.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1494071156415942658"}"></div></p>
<h2>We still don’t have an exit plan for coal</h2>
<p>Even though coal plants are shutting up shop faster, Australia still doesn’t have an exit plan for coal. That’s unlikely to change, given neither major party is going to want to “own” the closures in an election year. </p>
<p>As a result, this pattern seems likely to continue: renewable energy will continue to grow as the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/news-releases/2021/csiro-report-confirms-renewables-still-cheapest-new-build-power-in-australia">cheapest form of electricity generation</a>, governments will put in place policies to accelerate its growth, and it will be left to the market and asset owners to make decisions on closures without a policy framework. This is extremely risky.</p>
<p>Origin has done the right thing by giving three-years notice, committing to a transition plan for its workforce and investing in battery storage.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-is-coming-3-times-faster-than-expected-governments-must-accept-it-and-urgently-support-a-just-transition-173591">The end of coal is coming 3 times faster than expected. Governments must accept it and urgently support a 'just transition'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But energy market players don’t consider the penalties for not complying with notice requirements an effective deterrent, compared to the financial incentive to hang on and hope for a price uplift when other plants close. </p>
<p>This means we’re left relying on the owner’s goodwill, enlightened self-interest and fear of reputational damage to act responsibly.</p>
<p>Maybe Australia will muddle through like this. But without a plan, we’re at risk of a rush of closures in future years with disastrous impacts on electricity prices, regional economies and livelihoods in coal communities.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1494119314924138496"}"></div></p>
<h2>We need policy commitments</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-australia-can-phase-out-coal-power-while-maintaining-energy-security-152747">variety of models</a> for an orderly exit from coal have been proposed and national agreements have been negotiated to phase out coal in other nations such as Germany and Spain.</p>
<p>While the <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/renewable-integration-study-ris">Australian Energy Market Operator has noted</a> there are technical challenges in the clean energy transition, it considers they can be addressed. There’s no lack of alternative generation and storage to fill the energy gap from retiring coal plants. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-australia-can-phase-out-coal-power-while-maintaining-energy-security-152747">How Australia can phase out coal power while maintaining energy security</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Just this week, the NSW government received expressions of interest from renewable energy and storage projects worth over A$100 billion. The government observed that this was equivalent to the electricity output of ten coal-fired power stations in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-16/renewable-energy-zone-for-hunter-valley-coal-region/100832774">Hunter Valley Renewable Energy Zone</a>.</p>
<p>Hopefully on the other side of the election there’ll be a political and policy commitment to an orderly exit from coal - a plan that can manage impacts on our electricity system and support coal power station workers through the inevitable transition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177317/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Institute for Sustainable Futures has received funding for research on projects related to coal transition including the Clean Energy Council (large-scale survey of renewable energy employment), Infrastructure Australia (electricity employment projections) and Global Compact Network/Westpac (implications of just transition for financial institutions and corporate sector).</span></em></p>Eraring is the latest in a string of announcements for early coal plant closures. The fundamental reason is the brutal impact of renewables on coal’s profitability.Chris Briggs, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1745732022-01-14T15:28:44Z2022-01-14T15:28:44ZUnusually calm and cloudy weather led to resurgence in fossil fuel use in 2021<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440872/original/file-20220114-21-1u7a85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C674%2C4123%2C1824&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">2021 was an unusually calm year in British waters.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kaisn / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Great Britain’s wind turbines and solar panels both saw a drop in their electrical output in 2021. It was the first drop since 2016 for wind, and the first ever for solar. Our research group <a href="https://zenodo.org/record/5820339">tracks energy systems</a> and has extensively studied the existing <a href="https://zenodo.org/record/4776522">energy data landscape</a>. This has given us a unique insight into the challenges of shifting away from fossil fuels to lower carbon alternatives. So what should we make of this underwhelming year?</p>
<p>In 2021, about 26% of the electricity was generated from wind and solar, compared to 30% the previous year. This occurred despite a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-chapter-5-digest-of-united-kingdom-energy-statistics-dukes">modest increase</a> in the generation capacity to record highs for each technology. </p>
<p>However, this extra capacity could not compensate for unusually <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-trends-section-7-weather">low average wind speeds in 2021</a> which meant wind output fell 12%. From 2001-2020 the average wind speed across a calendar year in the UK was 8.8 knots but from January to November 2021 this value was just 7.8 knots (2010 was a similar year where the average fell below 8.0 knots over the January to November period). </p>
<p>The 7% reduction in solar output was due to 2021 being <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-trends-section-7-weather">less sunny than previous years</a>, especially 2020 which was unusually sunny.</p>
<p><iframe id="kG2IJ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kG2IJ/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The relatively poor wind and solar resource in 2021 was compounded by damage to an <a href="https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/fire-damaged-ifa1-to-not-return-to-full-capacity-until-oct-2023-due-to-extensive-work-requried">undersea cable connection to France</a> and reduced output from nuclear power. This led to an increase in fossil fuel generation to meet demand (mostly gas).</p>
<p>It also meant that for the first time since 2012, more electricity was generated from coal than in the previous year. This was despite two large coal power stations closing or switching to biomass in the past two years (<a href="https://www.ssethermal.com/flexible-generation/decommissioned/fiddler-s-ferry/">Fiddlers Ferry</a> and <a href="https://www.drax.com/press_release/drax-commences-major-turbine-upgrade-to-drive-down-cost-of-biomass-power-generation/">Drax</a> respectively), almost halving generation capacity. </p>
<p>Just two coal-fired power stations remain (Radcliffe-on-Soar and West Burton) and both are scheduled to stop burning coal by the end of 2024. However, despite the increase, coal still generated just 1.8% of electrical demand – in the longer term, 2021 should be seen merely as a a bump in the road that eventually leads to a zero coal electrical system. </p>
<p><iframe id="A7e6r" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/A7e6r/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Even though wind and solar power performed poorly when summed across the whole year, they still helped to drive carbon emissions below 100 grams per kWh for over 800 hours, while generation conditions were favourable. </p>
<h2>Planning for net zero</h2>
<p>As wind and solar have a different output from year to year, this has to be addressed through the design of energy systems for net zero. After all, these weather dependent renewables will make up a greater fraction of future generation capacity and demand will be much greater due to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/britains-electricity-use-is-at-its-lowest-for-decades-but-will-never-be-this-low-again-152360">electrification of heat and transport</a>. </p>
<p>The system has to account for these variations in output, harvesting and <a href="https://zenodo.org/record/5172034">storing extra energy at times of plenty</a> for months or years when the wind and solar resource is much lower. Batteries are better suited to provide system balancing on shorter time scales – hours or days – which leaves a significant challenge of storage over medium and seasonal timescales. Imports can help, both of electricity through cables, or from low-carbon fuels that are shipped or delivered through pipes. Fuels will continue to be particularly suited to this role, as they can be stored at significant scales at lower cost, which is a defining advantage for medium and longer term energy storage. </p>
<h2>Petrol panic and record natural gas prices</h2>
<p>Data from petrol stations shows that the government was correct to ask consumers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2021/sep/27/uk-petrol-crisis-panic-buying-suspends-competition-law-oil-army-ftse-sterling-business-live?page=with:block-615190ff8f08c18553fea16b#block-615190ff8f08c18553fea16b">not to panic buy</a>. There was enough fuel in the supply chain, and the main problem was a lack of truck drivers to get fuel delivered from refineries to petrol stations. </p>
<p>The data shows that consumers took <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/25/panic-buying-rather-than-shortages-causing-queues-at-uk-petrol-stations-aa-head-says">little notice of this</a>, and filled their vehicles with significantly more fuel than normal. Though this exacerbated an already fragile supply chain, at least the energy was in the form of a fuel, which could be stored and transported around the country. As the chart below shows, over the following weeks, daily deliveries (the blue line) were greater than sales (the orange line) and this allowed stock levels at petrol stations to recover.</p>
<p><iframe id="1027G" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1027G/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>It is interesting to consider what might happen in future with electric vehicle demand if forecasts suggest a significant and sustained drop in wind generation that might last for more than a few days. Will consumers be swayed by government advice to manage their charging patterns for the greater good of the wider electrical system, or decide that having a fully charged vehicle is a greater priority? </p>
<p>Natural gas prices were also volatile in 2021 due to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/gas-price-spike-how-uk-government-failures-made-a-global-crisis-worse-168324">number of economic and geopolitical factors</a> which saw a <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data-and-research/data-portal/wholesale-market-indicators">sharp spike</a> in the wholesale cost of gas from September onwards, in tandem with <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-road-fuel-prices">increased road fuel prices</a>. </p>
<p>Since lots of electricity is generated from natural gas, along with low wind output, the wholesale price of electricity tracked these changes and also reached a <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data-and-research/data-portal/wholesale-market-indicators">record monthly high in September 2021</a>, 2.5 times greater than the previous record set in January 2021.</p>
<p>These price rises are expected to have a devastating effect on fuel poverty which already affects over 4 million UK households and could reach <a href="https://www.nea.org.uk/energy-crisis/">6 million by this spring</a>. It also highlights the need for the rapid decarbonisation of power, heat and transport, along with an ambitious domestic retrofit program as a means to shore up energy supplies and protect consumers from the fluctuations of fuel prices in global markets.</p>
<p>If wind and solar recover in 2022, we expect to see a record year of generation for these technologies, which might ultimately help to counteract higher international gas prices.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 10,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Day receives funding from Innovate UK and EPSRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Wilson receives funding from Innovate UK and EPSRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noah Godfrey is a Research Assistant within the Active Building Centre Research Programme <a href="https://abc-rp.com/">https://abc-rp.com/</a>, and a PhD Student with the Energy Informatics Group at the University of Birmingham.</span></em></p>Calm and cloudy days led to a resurgence in fossil fuel use.Joseph Day, Postdoctoral Research Assistant in Energy Informatics, University of BirminghamGrant Wilson, Lecturer, Energy Informatics Group, Chemical Engineering, University of BirminghamNoah Godfrey, Energy Data Analyst - PhD in Modelling Flexibility in Future UK Energy Systems, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1735912021-12-13T02:09:20Z2021-12-13T02:09:20ZThe end of coal is coming 3 times faster than expected. Governments must accept it and urgently support a ‘just transition’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437076/original/file-20211213-19-1yekojl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C38%2C4254%2C2412&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Coal is likely to be completely gone from Victoria’s electricity system by 2032 with most other parts of Australia not far behind, a report from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) declared last week. </p>
<p>The report, called the <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2022/draft-2022-integrated-system-plan.pdf?la=en">2022 Integrated System Plan</a>, confirmed what many of us in energy policy have long known: the end of coal is coming, and the pace may take some industries and governments by surprise. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp">Integrated System Plan</a> (ISP) is effectively the planning “blueprint” the market operator publishes to help industry and policy makers assess how Australia’s electricity system might evolve. It’s an incredibly important document for guiding where and when investment is needed to unlock new renewable resources to meet demand.</p>
<p>Given ISP’s prediction for the rapid closure of coal-fired power stations, it’s critical governments don’t stick their heads in the sand. Continuing to deny the impending end of coal-fired generation is simply not in the interest of coal workers and their communities, who urgently need support. </p>
<h2>What is AEMO predicting?</h2>
<p>The most important aspect of the ISP is that what used to be called the “step change” has now become the “central scenario”. For the first time, this central scenario is consistent with Australia’s commitment under the Paris Agreement and limiting global temperature rise to under 2°C. </p>
<p>The ISP is forecasting that huge volumes of coal will be retired in the next ten years, including all brown coal and two-thirds of black coal, and significant investments in new renewables and “firming technologies” (such as batteries, gas, and pumped hydro) will take their place. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437079/original/file-20211213-13-1ax2nxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437079/original/file-20211213-13-1ax2nxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437079/original/file-20211213-13-1ax2nxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437079/original/file-20211213-13-1ax2nxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437079/original/file-20211213-13-1ax2nxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437079/original/file-20211213-13-1ax2nxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437079/original/file-20211213-13-1ax2nxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437079/original/file-20211213-13-1ax2nxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Firming’ technologies like pumped hydro are critical to ensure Australians have electricity when wind and solar aren’t available.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Around 14 gigawatts (GW) of coal is now assumed to be exiting the National Electricity Market this decade – more than three times the amount of coal retirements the industry has announced. </p>
<p>Effectively, AEMO is saying (yet again) that the <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/agl-hit-by-huge-losses-as-it-scrambles-to-catch-up-with-switch-from-baseload/">incumbent industry is likely to be caught by surprise</a> by the speed of the transition.</p>
<p>It’s not just an explosion of renewables investment that AEMO predicts. Around 9GW of gas-fired generation and an extra 620GW hours of storage (provided by batteries or pumped hydro) will be required to provide backup generation capacity when solar and wind are unavailable. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coal-plants-are-closing-faster-than-expected-governments-can-keep-the-exit-orderly-172150">Coal plants are closing faster than expected. Governments can keep the exit orderly</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Electricity demand is expected to surge out to 2050 and will double to at least 350 terrawatt hours. This includes from electric vehicles uptake, converting natural gas heating and hot water to electric in homes, and electrifying many industrial processes such as low-emissions steel and aluminium. </p>
<p>All these developments will require a major overhaul of the grid. The ISP states around A$12.5 billion in transmission spending needs to occur to unlock $29 billion in investment benefits.</p>
<h2>Why is coal being left behind?</h2>
<p>There are two main drivers for this significant substitution of coal for new technologies. </p>
<p>First, the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/news-releases/2020/renewables-still-the-cheapest-new-build-power-in-australia">cost of these technologies</a> continues to fall rapidly and <a href="https://businessrenewables.org.au/state-of-the-market-report-2020/">consumers are voting with their feet</a>. Some of Australia’s largest and most iconic businesses are increasingly buying 100% of their energy from renewable resources, including Woolworths, BHP and Coles. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-curtailment-is-emerging-as-a-new-challenge-to-overcome-as-australia-dashes-for-rooftop-solar-172152">Solar curtailment is emerging as a new challenge to overcome as Australia dashes for rooftop solar</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Second, state governments have filled the void left by the lack of a nationally consistent energy and climate policy, and are now implementing ambitious policies to drive the uptake of renewable energy and firming. </p>
<p>The most ambitious of these policies is the <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/government-and-regulation/electricity-infrastructure-roadmap">NSW government’s 12GW energy roadmap</a>, which effectively prepares for the retirement of ageing coal-fired power stations by facilitating investment in new capacity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437081/original/file-20211213-17-kk73zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Tesla charging station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437081/original/file-20211213-17-kk73zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437081/original/file-20211213-17-kk73zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437081/original/file-20211213-17-kk73zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437081/original/file-20211213-17-kk73zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437081/original/file-20211213-17-kk73zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437081/original/file-20211213-17-kk73zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437081/original/file-20211213-17-kk73zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electricity demand is expected to surge out to 2050.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>So what should governments be doing?</h2>
<p>It is critical governments focus on a “just transition” to these new technologies, and provide support to <a href="https://www.actu.org.au/our-work/climate-change/the-need-for-a-just-transition">communities and workers</a> most impacted, such as those in the Hunter and Latrobe Valleys. </p>
<p><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0269094214562171">Structural adjustment policies</a> such as job placements, relocation assistance, or financial support to transition local economies are vital to secure opportunities for these regions. Retraining ahead of closures will help workers transition to <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/P881-Getting-Off-Coal-WEB.pdf">new or related industries</a>. </p>
<p>Everyone who uses energy must be afforded access to the clean energy transition. At present, the biggest barrier to participating in the solar and battery revolution is owning your own home. </p>
<p>Governments have been absent from this important policy debate. Australian <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421521005395">low-income and rental households should be prioritised</a> in any future policies that support adoption of solar and battery storage. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437078/original/file-20211213-25-px87nl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Roofs with solar panels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437078/original/file-20211213-25-px87nl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437078/original/file-20211213-25-px87nl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437078/original/file-20211213-25-px87nl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437078/original/file-20211213-25-px87nl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437078/original/file-20211213-25-px87nl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437078/original/file-20211213-25-px87nl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437078/original/file-20211213-25-px87nl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rental homes have been left out of policy debates on renewables.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Governments must also ensure the private sector (rather than consumers) wear the risk of poor investments. Governments are increasingly taking on very significant risk (on behalf of consumers) through underwriting renewable energy and firming investments of large multi-national energy businesses. </p>
<p>Some economists (including us) have been providing <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14678489">alternative models</a> for governments to achieve the same objectives, but with greater focus on reducing risks to consumers. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/economists-back-carbon-price-say-benefits-of-net-zero-outweigh-costs-169939">Economists back carbon price, say benefits of net-zero outweigh costs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Given the surge in households and businesses voluntarily buying renewable energy, it’s important consumers know what they’re getting. The Clean Energy Regulator is doing some interesting work in this space by developing an emissions and renewable energy <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/Infohub/Markets/cert-report">transparency register</a> as part of the national greenhouse and energy reporting framework. </p>
<p>If governments really wanted to help, they could introduce a <a href="https://theconversation.com/economists-back-carbon-price-say-benefits-of-net-zero-outweigh-costs-169939">carbon price</a>. Such a policy is considered political poison, but a carbon price would result in us reaching this future in a much less costly and more orderly way.</p>
<h2>The end of the coal age</h2>
<p>The ISP is forecasting a better and cleaner future. Australia has great opportunities from moving beyond the coal age and into the age of efficient renewable energy, as we’re blessed with some of the best renewable resources on the planet</p>
<p>With global leaders increasingly focused on rapidly reducing emissions, we have a lot to gain through new industries, such as green hydrogen and mineral processing. Both <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-2030-climate-target-betters-the-morrison-government-but-australia-must-go-much-further-much-faster-173066">major political parties</a> at the national level have targets that don’t really push beyond what AEMO now thinks is the status quo. </p>
<p>The stone age didn’t end because of a lack of stones. And the coal age is ending despite an abundance of it – whether governments believe it or not. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-2030-climate-target-betters-the-morrison-government-but-australia-must-go-much-further-much-faster-173066">Labor’s 2030 climate target betters the Morrison government, but Australia must go much further, much faster</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173591/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Nelson is an Associate Professor of Economics at the Centre for Energy Economics and Policy Research at Griffith Universtiy and the EGM of Energy Markets at Iberdrola Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joel Gilmore is an Associate Professor at Griffith University and the GM, Energy Policy & Planning at Iberdrola Australia, that develops renewable projects and firming assets.</span></em></p>A new report predicts an incredibly rapid closure of coal-fired power stations. Continuing to deny this is simply not in the interest of coal workers and their communities.Tim Nelson, Associate Professor of Economics, Griffith UniversityJoel Gilmore, Associate Professor, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1708692021-11-05T01:56:06Z2021-11-05T01:56:06ZCOP26: it’s half-time at the crucial Glasgow climate change summit – and here’s the score<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430427/original/file-20211105-21-192fea1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C178%2C5184%2C3267&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first week of the United Nations climate talks in Glasgow are drawing to a close. While there’s still a way to go, progress so far gives some hope the Paris climate agreement struck six years ago is working. </p>
<p>Major powers brought significant commitments to cut emissions this decade and pledged to shift toward net-zero emissions. New coalitions were also announced for decarbonising sectors of the global economy. These include phasing out coal-fired power, pledges to cut global methane emissions, ending deforestation and plans for net-zero emissions shipping.</p>
<p>The two-week summit, known as COP26, is a critical test of global cooperation to tackle the climate crisis. Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required, every five years, to produce more ambitious national plans to reduce emissions. Delayed one year by the COVID pandemic, this year is when new plans are due. </p>
<p>Pledges made at the summit so far could start to bend the global emissions curve downwards. <a href="https://data.climateresource.com.au/ndc/20211103-ClimateResource-below2C.pdf">Credible projections</a> from an expert team, including Professor Malte Meinshausen at the University of Melbourne, suggest if new pledges are fully funded and met, global warming could be limited to to 1.9°C this century. The International Energy Agency came to a <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/cop26-climate-pledges-could-help-limit-global-warming-to-1-8-c-but-implementing-them-will-be-the-key">similar conclusion</a>. </p>
<p>This is real progress. But the Earth system reacts to what we put in the atmosphere, not promises made at summits. So pledges need to be backed by finance, and the necessary policies and actions across energy and land use. </p>
<p>A significant ambition gap on emissions reduction also remains, and more climate action is needed this decade to avoid catastrophic warming. Achieving necessary emissions reductions by 2030 will be a key focus of the second week of the Glasgow talks, especially as global emissions are projected to <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/21/highlights.htm">rebound strongly in 2021</a> (after the drop induced last year by COVID-19).</p>
<p>For its part, Australia contributed virtually nothing to global efforts in Glasgow. Alone among advanced economies, Australia set no new target to cut emissions this decade. If anything, this week added to Australia’s reputation as a member of a small and isolated group of countries - with the likes of Saudi Arabia and Russia - resisting climate action.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430429/original/file-20211105-25-1uaci9r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430429/original/file-20211105-25-1uaci9r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430429/original/file-20211105-25-1uaci9r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430429/original/file-20211105-25-1uaci9r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430429/original/file-20211105-25-1uaci9r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430429/original/file-20211105-25-1uaci9r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430429/original/file-20211105-25-1uaci9r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two graphs showing progress towards global temperature goals, based on national pledges before the COP26 summit, left, and on November 3.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Global momentum: What did major powers bring to Glasgow?</h2>
<p>Since the last UN climate summit we’ve seen a worldwide <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/From-Paris-to-Glasgow_V6-FA_Low_Res_Single_Pages_edit.pdf">surge in momentum</a> toward climate action. More than 100 countries - accounting for more than <a href="https://www.socsci.ox.ac.uk/article/net-zero-pledges-go-global-now-action-needs-to-follow-words-oxford-eciu-report">two-thirds</a> of the global economy - have set firm dates for achieving net-zero emissions. </p>
<p>Perhaps more importantly, in the lead up to the Glasgow summit the world’s advanced economies - including the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan, Canada, South Korea and New Zealand - all strengthened their 2030 targets. The G7 group of countries <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-57461670'">pledged</a> to halve their collective emissions by 2030. </p>
<p>Major economies in the developing world also brought new commitments to COP26. China pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 and strengthened its 2030 targets. It now plans to peak emissions by the end of the decade. </p>
<p>This week India also pledged to achieve net-zero by 2070 and <a href="https://fortune.com/2021/11/03/india-net-zero-emissions-pledge-cop26-renewables-promise/">ramp up installation</a> of renewable energy. By 2030, half of India’s electricity will come from renewable sources. </p>
<p>The opening days of COP26 also saw a suite of new announcements for decarbonising sectors of the global economy. The UK <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-of-coal-in-sight-as-uk-secures-ambitious-commitments-at-cop26-summit">declared</a> the end of coal was in sight, as it launched a new global coalition to phase out coal-fired power.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-global-deforestation-deal-will-fail-if-countries-like-australia-dont-lift-their-game-on-land-clearing-171108">COP26: global deforestation deal will fail if countries like Australia don't lift their game on land clearing</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>More than 100 countries signed on to a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59137828">new pledge</a> to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030. More than 120 countries also promised to <a href="https://ukcop26.org/glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/">end deforestation</a> by 2030. </p>
<p>The US also joined a coalition of countries that plans to achieve <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/denmark-us-12-other-nations-back-tougher-climate-goal-shipping-2021-11-01/">net-zero emissions</a> in global shipping.</p>
<p>But this week the developed world <a href="https://cdn.odi.org/media/documents/ODI_WP_fairshare_final0709.pdf">fell short</a> of fulfilling a decade-old promise - to deliver US$100 billion each year to help poorer nations deal with climate impacts. </p>
<p>Fulfilling commitments on climate finance will be critically important for building trust in the talks. For its part, Australia pledged an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/02/scott-morrison-unveils-500m-in-international-climate-finance-on-first-day-of-cop26">additional A$500 million</a> in climate finance to countries in Southeast Asia and the Pacific – a figure well short of Australia’s fair share of global efforts. Australia also refused to rejoin the Green Climate Fund. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="three men stand on stage before green and blue background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430426/original/file-20211105-22-1t8de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430426/original/file-20211105-22-1t8de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430426/original/file-20211105-22-1t8de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430426/original/file-20211105-22-1t8de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430426/original/file-20211105-22-1t8de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430426/original/file-20211105-22-1t8de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430426/original/file-20211105-22-1t8de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Congo President Felix Tshisekedi and US President Joe Biden stand at a COP26 session on deforestation. More than 120 countries signed a pledge to end deforestation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Missing the moment: The Australian Way</h2>
<p>While the rest of the world is getting on with the race to a net-zero emissions economy, Australia is barely out of the starting blocks. Australia brought to Glasgow the same 2030 emissions target that it took to Paris six years ago - even as key allies pledged much stronger targets. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison arrived with <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-attends-pivotal-global-climate-talks-today-bringing-a-weak-plan-that-leaves-australia-exposed-170842">scant plans</a> to accompany his last-minute announcement on net-zero by 2050. The strategy titled The Australian Way, which comprised little more than a brochure, failed to provide a credible pathway to that target. It was <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/25/australia/australia-climate-net-zero-intl/index.html">met with derision</a> across the world. </p>
<p>On the way to Glasgow, at the G20 leaders meeting in Rome, Australia blocked global momentum to reduce emissions by <a href="https://theconversation.com/g20-leaders-talk-up-climate-action-but-avoid-real-commitments-casting-a-shadow-over-crucial-glasgow-talks-170533">resisting calls</a> for a phase out of coal power. Australia also refused to sign on to the global pledge on <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-refusal-to-sign-a-global-methane-pledge-exposes-flaws-in-the-term-net-zero-170944">methane</a>.</p>
<p>Worse still, Australia is using COP26 to actively promote fossil fuels. Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor says the summit is a chance to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/29/angus-taylor-to-promote-fossil-fuel-at-glasgow-cop26-climate-summit">promote investment</a> in Australian gas projects, and Australian fossil fuel company Santos was <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australia-criticised-over-prominence-of-fossil-fuel-company-display-at-cop26-stall/7d385b4d-74d2-41e1-804d-69c7ebd6ddfb">prominently branded</a> at the venue’s Australia Pavilion.</p>
<p>The federal government is <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/taylor-and-pitt-pour-another-250m-into-ccs-projects-that-may-not-be-complete-until-2031/">promoting</a> carbon capture and storage as a climate solution, despite it being widely regarded as a licence to prolong the use of fossil fuels. The technology is also eye-wateringly <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-is-carbon-capture-and-storage/">expensive</a> and not yet proven at scale. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430425/original/file-20211105-23-1qfsmn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430425/original/file-20211105-23-1qfsmn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430425/original/file-20211105-23-1qfsmn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430425/original/file-20211105-23-1qfsmn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430425/original/file-20211105-23-1qfsmn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430425/original/file-20211105-23-1qfsmn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430425/original/file-20211105-23-1qfsmn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Council</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The closing stretch</h2>
<p>Week one in Glasgow has delivered more climate action than the world promised in Paris six years ago. However, the summit outcomes still fall well short of what is required to limit warming to 1.5°C. Attention will now turn to negotiating an outcome to further increase climate ambition this decade. </p>
<p>Vulnerable countries <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/global-warming-climate-talks-cop26/">have proposed</a> countries yet to deliver enhanced 2030 targets be required to come back in 2022, well before COP27, with stronger targets to cut emissions. </p>
<p>This week, the United States <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/02/us-rejoins-coalition-to-achieve-15c-goal-at-un-climate-talks">rejoined</a> the High Ambition Coalition, a group of countries from across traditional negotiating blocs in the UN climate talks. Led by the Marshall Islands, the group was <a href="https://theconversation.com/glasgow-showdown-pacific-islands-demand-global-leaders-bring-action-not-excuses-to-un-summit-169649">crucial</a> in securing the 2015 Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>In Glasgow, this coalition is <a href="https://www.highambitioncoalition.org/statements/cochair-summary-april-2021-9n7c5-z7kxl-733k4-49h35">pressing</a> for an outcome that will keep the world on track to limiting warming to 1.5°C.</p>
<p>But significant differences persist between the US and China. Many developing countries want to see more commitment to climate finance from wealthy nations before they will pledge new targets. Can consensus be reached in Glasgow? We’ll be watching the negotiations closely next week to find out.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-emissions-almost-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels-after-unprecedented-drop-in-2020-new-analysis-shows-170866">Global emissions almost back to pre-pandemic levels after unprecedented drop in 2020, new analysis shows</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wesley Morgan is a researcher with the Climate Council</span></em></p>Week one in Glasgow has delivered more climate action than the world promised in Paris six years ago. But progress still falls well short of what’s required to limit warming to 1.5°C.Wesley Morgan, Research Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute and Climate Council researcher, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1585292021-04-11T19:51:11Z2021-04-11T19:51:11ZMore coal-fired power or 100% renewables? For the next few decades, both paths are wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394184/original/file-20210409-21-odilfe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C12%2C4172%2C2821&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The big question facing Australia’s National Electricity Market is how to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 without disrupted energy supplies or skyrocketing prices.</p>
<p>Some say coal-fired power will be needed. Others say 100% renewable electricity is the way to go. But our <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/go-for-net-zero/">new report</a> released today argues neither path is wise in the medium term.</p>
<p>It shows renewable energy – particularly wind and solar – can get us most of the way to net-zero. But as the renewable share approaches 100%, maintaining reliable supply will become very expensive.</p>
<p>The best approach for now is to target net-zero emissions. This will involve retaining a small proportion of fossil-fuel generation – namely gas – in the electricity mix over the next couple of decades. But it does not mean extending the life of existing coal-fired power stations, or building new ones.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="street with power lines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394185/original/file-20210409-15-1reiwiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394185/original/file-20210409-15-1reiwiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394185/original/file-20210409-15-1reiwiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394185/original/file-20210409-15-1reiwiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394185/original/file-20210409-15-1reiwiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394185/original/file-20210409-15-1reiwiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394185/original/file-20210409-15-1reiwiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s electricity system must decarbonise without affecting reliability or affordability.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A fork in the road</h2>
<p>All state and territory governments <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/nt-puts-australia-on-track-for-net-zero-climate-target/">have committed</a> to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Prime Minister Scott Morrison says achieving that goal is <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-has-embraced-net-zero-emissions-now-its-time-to-walk-the-talk-154478">his preference</a>, too.</p>
<p>That means the electricity sector needs to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases it releases to the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Most electricity customers in Australia, except those in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, are supplied by the National Electricity Market (<a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/about-the-national-electricity-market-nem">NEM</a>). It comprises electricity generators, transmission lines and other infrastructure to deliver electricity to customers, and a wholesale market where electricity is bought and sold. </p>
<p>The market’s coal-fired power stations are ageing. As the below graph shows, virtually all are scheduled to be retired in the next three decades.</p>
<p>Renewable energy is now the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/news-releases/2020/renewables-still-the-cheapest-new-build-power-in-australia">cheapest source</a> of electricity, but it’s an intermittent form of supply – generated only when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining.</p>
<p>The question now is what technology mix – including fossil fuels, renewable energy sources and energy storage systems – the NEM should adopt.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393792/original/file-20210407-23-1lo17jd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph of Australia's coal-fired power station closure dates." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393792/original/file-20210407-23-1lo17jd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393792/original/file-20210407-23-1lo17jd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393792/original/file-20210407-23-1lo17jd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393792/original/file-20210407-23-1lo17jd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393792/original/file-20210407-23-1lo17jd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393792/original/file-20210407-23-1lo17jd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393792/original/file-20210407-23-1lo17jd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Good news for Australia’</h2>
<p>The Grattan Institute developed a sophisticated economic model of the NEM to answer this question. We investigated the emissions, reliability and affordability implications of different future technology mixes. </p>
<p>We compared three scenarios:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>the NEM continues to rely on coal, with new coal-fired power stations replacing old ones as they are retired</p></li>
<li><p>70% of the NEM’s electricity comes from renewables, with two-thirds less coal capacity than today</p></li>
<li><p>90% or more electricity comes from renewables, with no coal-fired generation at all.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>The model tested each technology mix against nine years of hourly weather and electricity demand data across the NEM, adjusted for projected changes in future demand. It then computed the cost of supplying electricity with each mix. </p>
<p>The results are good news for Australia. A 70% renewable system looks to be about as affordable as maintaining a coal-based system over the long run, but with 70 million fewer tonnes of emissions each year. </p>
<p>The cost of doing this is extremely low – about A$7 for each tonne of emissions abated. This is less than the A$16/t the federal government pays for emissions reduction now via its <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Pages/Auctions%20results/September%202020/Auction-September-2020.aspx">Climate Solutions Fund</a>.</p>
<p>Moving from 70% to 90% renewables would trim another 35 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions for less than A$40/t. This is still low-cost abatement. By comparison, the European Union’s carbon price rose to about <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-10/eu-carbon-price-hits-a-record-41-euros-as-rally-speeds-up">A$67/t in March 2021</a>, while Canada plans to raise its carbon tax to about <a href="https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/d58ef644/canada-to-increase-carbon-taxes-by-467">A$181/t by 2030</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="coal plant at night" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394191/original/file-20210409-15-1b0fxem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394191/original/file-20210409-15-1b0fxem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394191/original/file-20210409-15-1b0fxem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394191/original/file-20210409-15-1b0fxem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394191/original/file-20210409-15-1b0fxem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394191/original/file-20210409-15-1b0fxem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394191/original/file-20210409-15-1b0fxem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One scenario analysed a future with no coal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Let’s get connected</h2>
<p>Transmission infrastructure is key to decarbonising the electricity sector. </p>
<p>High-voltage transmission lines carry electricity over the long distances from where it’s produced to where it’s needed. They also connect the states of the NEM, enabling electricity to be traded between regions. The below graph shows the transmission network today.</p>
<p>To get to higher renewable shares, more transmission infrastructure is needed, for two reasons:</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">What is the electricity transmission system, and why does it need fixing?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>First, many sunny and windy places are located at the edges of the NEM states. If wind and solar plants were built there, transmission would be needed to connect them to the network. </p>
<p>Second, more transmission between NEM states would allow each state to export renewable energy when it has too much, and import when it needs more.</p>
<p>There are costs and benefits to weigh up here. Extra transmission infrastructure requires significant investment. However it would mean less generation infrastructure is needed in each state, reducing overall costs. </p>
<p>Our report shows at 90% renewables, the benefits of a more-interconnected NEM outweigh the costs to the tune of A$800 million or more each year.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393793/original/file-20210407-21-mqz336.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393793/original/file-20210407-21-mqz336.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393793/original/file-20210407-21-mqz336.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393793/original/file-20210407-21-mqz336.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393793/original/file-20210407-21-mqz336.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393793/original/file-20210407-21-mqz336.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393793/original/file-20210407-21-mqz336.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Net-zero is more affordable than 100% renewables</h2>
<p>The best information available today indicates climbing from 90% to 100% renewables will be expensive. This is mainly due to the challenge of balancing demand and supply during rare, sustained periods of low wind, low solar and high demand. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="gas flare" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394189/original/file-20210409-19-1rfljlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394189/original/file-20210409-19-1rfljlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394189/original/file-20210409-19-1rfljlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394189/original/file-20210409-19-1rfljlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394189/original/file-20210409-19-1rfljlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394189/original/file-20210409-19-1rfljlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394189/original/file-20210409-19-1rfljlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gas peaking plants will likely be an important, but not expanded, part of Australia’s energy transition.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Gas is an ideal backstop for this challenge. <a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/gas-supply-and-gas-generation-put-on-centre-stage/">Gas-fired generators</a> are cheap to build but costly to run. These economics suit this problem nicely because they will be needed only infrequently. </p>
<p>Alternatives look more expensive. <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">Hydrogen</a> could very well replace gas as a backstop, but only if the cost of producing and storing it falls significantly. Carbon capture and storage (<a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/funding-and-incentives/low-emissions-technologies-for-fossil-fuels/carbon-capture-storage-flagships">CCS</a>) can work only in certain locations, and is much less economic if used infrequently. Batteries and even pumped hydro will struggle over <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/energy-storage-its-not-just-size-that-counts-but-how-long-it-lasts-34857/">rare, multi-day challenges</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, gas is <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-single-mega-project-exposes-the-morrison-governments-gas-plan-as-staggering-folly-133435">not a zero-emissions</a> solution. To reach net zero efficiently, the lowest-cost option in the medium term is most likely to rely on 90% or more renewables and offset the remaining pollution with <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/going-carbon-negative-what-are-the-technology-options">negative-emissions technologies</a>. </p>
<p>So it looks likely gas will play an important but not expanded role over the next few decades. And if zero-emissions alternatives fall in cost faster than current projections suggest, the role for gas will shrink faster.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-at-a-crossroads-in-the-global-hydrogen-race-and-one-path-looks-risky-157864">Australia is at a crossroads in the global hydrogen race – and one path looks risky</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Solar farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394190/original/file-20210409-13-tl43jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394190/original/file-20210409-13-tl43jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394190/original/file-20210409-13-tl43jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394190/original/file-20210409-13-tl43jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394190/original/file-20210409-13-tl43jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394190/original/file-20210409-13-tl43jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394190/original/file-20210409-13-tl43jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If the cost of zero-emissions electricity generation falls more quickly than projected, gas will be phased out sooner.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>Three recommendations flow from these conclusions. </p>
<p>First, governments should have confidence in planning for a net-zero emissions future for the NEM by the 2040s. We’ve shown emissions <em>can</em> be reduced while maintaining reliable and affordable electricity supply. </p>
<p>Governments should not try to extend the life of existing coal-fired power stations, let alone <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/nationals-mps-ignite-fresh-climate-row-with-push-for-more-investment-in-coal">subsidise new ones</a>.</p>
<p>Second, net-zero emissions – not 100% renewables – is the appropriate target to be setting today. </p>
<p>Third, more transmissison infrastructure will help achieve higher renewable shares at lower cost. State governments should work together to resolve <a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/which-state-pays-for-interconnectors/">disputes</a> about who should pay for interstate transmission upgrades. </p>
<p>And the states should not try to go it alone. Australia’s great energy transition will be most affordable if the states stick together.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/against-the-odds-south-australia-is-a-renewable-energy-powerhouse-how-on-earth-did-they-do-it-153789">Against the odds, South Australia is a renewable energy powerhouse. How on Earth did they do it?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158529/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p>Electricity emissions can be cut to net-zero while keeping the lights on and prices down. But achieving that quickly means keeping gas around, for now.James Ha, Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1512022021-02-09T02:28:04Z2021-02-09T02:28:04ZAustralia’s gold industry stamped out mercury pollution — now it’s coal’s turn<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382923/original/file-20210208-21-m28nq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C3960%2C1796&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mercury is a nasty toxin that harms <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/mercury-and-health">humans</a> and <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/mercurys_silent_toll_on_the_worlds_wildlife">ecosystems</a>.
Most human exposure comes from eating <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-mercury-get-into/">contaminated</a> fish and other seafood. But how does mercury enter the Australian environment in the first place?</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.070">Our recent research</a> dug into official data and past research to answer this question. </p>
<p>In some rare good news for the environment, it turns out one Australian industry – gold production – has brought mercury emissions down to almost zero. But more can be done about mercury emitted from coal-fired power stations.</p>
<p>Australia is one of the few developed countries yet to ratify the United Nations’ <a href="http://www.mercuryconvention.org/">Minamata Convention on Mercury</a>, which aims to reduce mercury in the environment. But once we deal with emissions from coal burning, we’ll be closer than ever to addressing the problem.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Salmon chained to a plate" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382925/original/file-20210208-13-1g2l98n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382925/original/file-20210208-13-1g2l98n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382925/original/file-20210208-13-1g2l98n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382925/original/file-20210208-13-1g2l98n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382925/original/file-20210208-13-1g2l98n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382925/original/file-20210208-13-1g2l98n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382925/original/file-20210208-13-1g2l98n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Humans are exposed to mercury via seafood.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Where does mercury pollution come from?</h2>
<p>Mercury is a heavy metal that cycles between the atmosphere, ocean and land. It occurs naturally but can be toxic to humans and wildlife.</p>
<p>Most human-caused mercury emissions come from the burning of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/03/coal-fired-power-stations-caused-surge-in-airborne-mercury-pollution-study-finds">fossil fuels</a> and the mining and production of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1001074217302449?via%3Dihub">gold</a> and other metals. </p>
<p>What’s more, items such as light bulbs and thermometers dumped in landfill can <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es501337j">release mercury</a> 30-50 years later.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-overfishing-are-boosting-toxic-mercury-levels-in-fish-122748">Climate change and overfishing are boosting toxic mercury levels in fish</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Once in the air, mercury can float around for months, crossing oceans and continents to end up back on the ground, far from where it was emitted. </p>
<p>It’s eventually <a href="https://theconversation.com/plants-safely-store-toxic-mercury-bushfires-and-climate-change-bring-it-back-into-our-environment-129788">taken up</a> by soils, water and plants, then slowly released back to the atmosphere. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Coal plant emitting steam" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382928/original/file-20210208-21-1ucdkjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382928/original/file-20210208-21-1ucdkjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382928/original/file-20210208-21-1ucdkjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382928/original/file-20210208-21-1ucdkjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382928/original/file-20210208-21-1ucdkjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382928/original/file-20210208-21-1ucdkjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382928/original/file-20210208-21-1ucdkjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal plants are a major source of mercury emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A success story</h2>
<p>Estimates vary on the exact amount of mercury that Australian activities release to the air. Studies we reviewed put the figure at anywhere between 8 and 30 tonnes each year.</p>
<p>Our analysis shows the figure is likely at the low end of that range – largely due to a single success story.</p>
<p>In 2006, a gold production facility in Kalgoorlie was thought to cause half of Australia’s industrial mercury emissions. The massive operation includes the Fimiston Open Pit, or “Super Pit”, <a href="https://www.metso.com/showroom/mining/kcgms-emissions-reduction-project-is-a-major-win-for-both-the-environment-and-community/">purportedly</a> so large it can be seen from space.</p>
<p>Gold ore naturally contains mercury. To extract the gold, the ore is typically roasted at temperatures of up to 600°C. During this process, the mercury escapes into the atmosphere. Most mercury pollution from Australia’s gold industry came from a single roaster at the Kalgoorlie site.</p>
<p>But over one decade, mercury emissions from the operation dropped from more than 8 tonnes to just 250 kilograms. This was largely due to a technology upgrade in 2015, when the roaster was <a href="https://www.metso.com/showroom/mining/kcgms-emissions-reduction-project-is-a-major-win-for-both-the-environment-and-community/">replaced</a> by a grinding process.</p>
<p>This success means coal-fired power plants are now Australia’s largest controllable source of mercury emissions. They emit between two and four tonnes of mercury every year (<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-coal-fired-power-stations-need-to-shut-on-health-grounds-68809">along with other air pollutants</a>).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378157/original/file-20210111-19-135mmsu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing steady decrease in mercury emissions from 2004 to 2017." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378157/original/file-20210111-19-135mmsu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378157/original/file-20210111-19-135mmsu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378157/original/file-20210111-19-135mmsu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378157/original/file-20210111-19-135mmsu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378157/original/file-20210111-19-135mmsu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378157/original/file-20210111-19-135mmsu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378157/original/file-20210111-19-135mmsu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mercury emissions from two related gold processing facilities in Kalgoorlie, based on data reported to Australia’s National Pollutant Inventory (http://www.npi.gov.au/).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fisher and Nelson, 2020</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Other sources of mercury emissions</h2>
<p>Other natural and human activities release mercury into the air. They include:</p>
<p><strong>Bushfires:</strong> Mercury is usually released to the environment <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/gbc.20040">over decades</a>. But the process can be much more rapid if the <a href="https://theconversation.com/mercury-pollution-from-decades-past-may-have-been-re-released-by-tasmanias-bushfires-114603">vegetation burns in a bushfire</a>. </p>
<p>Our research found most estimates of bushfire emissions fall between 4 and 40 tonnes each year. But this work relied on measurements from overseas. <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025925">New</a> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1352231018308720">measurements</a> from Australian ecosystems suggests past estimates are probably too high – possibly due to lower mercury concentrations in some Australian vegetation.</p>
<p><strong>Soils and unburnt vegtation:</strong> Only <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1352231012007534">one study</a> has calculated the mercury released from Australian soils and unburnt vegetation, which it put at a whopping 74 to 222 tonnes per year.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/plants-safely-store-toxic-mercury-bushfires-and-climate-change-bring-it-back-into-our-environment-129788">Plants safely store toxic mercury. Bushfires and climate change bring it back into our environment</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When that research was published in 2012, there were no Australian data to test the model behind these numbers. We still don’t have many measurements, but most <a href="https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/129/2018/">data</a> <a href="https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/5325/2013/">we do have</a> show Australian soils and vegetation take up about as much mercury as they release. </p>
<p>The one exception is “enriched” soils, which contain more mercury than other soils. This is because they are located over natural mineral belts and at former mining sites. At one location in northern New South Wales, enriched soils emitted <a href="https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/5325/2013/">more than 100 times</a> as much mercury as nearby unenriched soils.</p>
<p><strong>Mercury from elsewhere:</strong> Mercury released by other countries can <a href="https://theconversation.com/mercury-from-the-northern-hemisphere-is-ending-up-in-australia-83710">travel to Australia</a> in the air. The levels are tough to quantify, but we are currently using models to produce an estimate.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378159/original/file-20210111-13-14hsuf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Figure showing the best estimates for Australian mercury sources" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378159/original/file-20210111-13-14hsuf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378159/original/file-20210111-13-14hsuf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378159/original/file-20210111-13-14hsuf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378159/original/file-20210111-13-14hsuf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378159/original/file-20210111-13-14hsuf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378159/original/file-20210111-13-14hsuf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378159/original/file-20210111-13-14hsuf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australian atmospheric mercury sources and sinks, in tonnes per year. Current best estimates are shown in black; range from the literature shown in grey. Question marks indicate insufficient data exist to make an informed best estimate. Images courtesy of Tracey Saxby, Kim Kraeer, Lucy Van Essen-Fishman, Diane Kleine via University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fisher and Nelson, 2020</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It’s time to act</h2>
<p>Even with our new, lower estimates, Australia’s per capita mercury emissions remain <a href="https://www.amap.no/documents/doc/Technical-Background-Report-for-the-Global-Mercury-Assessment-2013/848">higher than the global average</a>, likely due to our reliance on coal burning. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-04-01/coal-fired-power-emissions-mercury/10958128">Technology can lower these emissions</a>.</p>
<p>Some mercury emitted by power plants isn’t in the air for long before it <a href="https://news.umich.edu/fingerprinting-method-tracks-mercury-emissions-from-coal-fired-power-plant/">falls to Earth</a>. This can harm <a href="https://www.mercury-australia.com.au/mercury-in-lake-macquarie-it-is-all-up-in-the-air/">nearby</a> <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5422849/">people and ecosystems</a>.</p>
<p>The federal government recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/ban-on-toxic-mercury-looms-in-sugar-cane-farming-but-australia-still-has-a-way-to-go-140596">banned mercury-containing pesticides</a> used in sugar cane farming. With gold production also taken care of, reducing mercury emissions from power plants is the logical next step.</p>
<p>It’s also time for Australia to formally commit to the Minamata Convention. Once we ratify the deal, we’ll be bound to control <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/protection/chemicals-management/mercury">mercury emissions</a> under international law – and that’s good for humans and wildlife everywhere.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ban-on-toxic-mercury-looms-in-sugar-cane-farming-but-australia-still-has-a-way-to-go-140596">Ban on toxic mercury looms in sugar cane farming, but Australia still has a way to go</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jenny Fisher has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Commonwealth Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, and the L'Oréal-UNESCO foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Nelson currently receives funding from UN Environment to investigate aspects of environmental mercury management. He has previously received competitive funding from the Australian Research Council and the CRC program, and from power and resource companies.</span></em></p>Mercury is a nasty toxin that harms humans and ecosystems. The gold and sugar-cane industries have tackled the problem, and it’s time for coal to follow suit.Jenny Fisher, Associate Professor in Atmospheric Chemistry, University of WollongongPeter Nelson, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Studies, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1448642020-09-07T20:12:41Z2020-09-07T20:12:41ZAussie invention could save old coal stations by running them on zero-emissions ‘Lego’ blocks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356667/original/file-20200907-115024-5rwew2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1684&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As climate change worsens, the future of fossil fuel jobs and infrastructure is uncertain. But a new energy storage technology invented in Australia could enable coal-fired power stations to run entirely emissions-free.</p>
<p>The novel material, called miscibility gap alloy (<a href="https://www.mgathermal.com/publications">MGA</a>), stores energy in the form of heat. MGA is housed in small blocks of blended metals, which receive energy generated by renewables such as solar and wind.</p>
<p>The energy can then be used as an alternative to coal to run steam turbines at coal-fired power stations, without producing emissions. Stackable like Lego, MGA blocks can be added or removed, scaling electricity generation up or down to meet demand.</p>
<p>MGA blocks are a fraction of the cost of a rival energy storage technology, lithium-ion batteries. Our invention has been <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-319-69844-1_48">proven</a> in the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038092X19304220?via%3Dihub">lab</a> – now we are moving to the next phase of proving it in the real world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Steam billows from a coal-fired power station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356669/original/file-20200907-114278-1w0c69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356669/original/file-20200907-114278-1w0c69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356669/original/file-20200907-114278-1w0c69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356669/original/file-20200907-114278-1w0c69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356669/original/file-20200907-114278-1w0c69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356669/original/file-20200907-114278-1w0c69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356669/original/file-20200907-114278-1w0c69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">MGA blocks promise to give new life to old coal stations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Themba Hadebe/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why energy storage is important</h2>
<p>Major renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power are “intermittent”. In other words, they only produce energy when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing. Sometimes they produce more energy than is needed, and other times, less.</p>
<p>So moving to 100% renewable electricity requires the energy to be “dispatchable” – stored and delivered on demand. Some forms of storage, such as <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices">lithium-ion batteries</a>, are relatively expensive and can only store energy for short periods. Others, such as hydro-electric power, can store energy for longer periods, but are site-dependent and can’t just be built anywhere.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/45-000-renewables-jobs-are-australias-for-the-taking-but-how-many-will-go-to-coal-workers-141531">45,000 renewables jobs are Australia’s for the taking – but how many will go to coal workers?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If our electricity grid is to become emissions-free, we need an energy storage option that’s both affordable and versatile enough to be rolled out at massive scale - providing six to eight hours of dispatchable power every night. </p>
<p>MGAs store energy for a day to a week. This fills a “middle” time frame between batteries and hydro-power, and allows intermittent renewable energy to be dispatched when needed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Researchers Alex Post and Erich Kisi, look at a MGA block." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356670/original/file-20200907-111081-1h20soe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356670/original/file-20200907-111081-1h20soe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356670/original/file-20200907-111081-1h20soe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356670/original/file-20200907-111081-1h20soe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356670/original/file-20200907-111081-1h20soe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356670/original/file-20200907-111081-1h20soe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356670/original/file-20200907-111081-1h20soe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers Alex Post and Erich Kisi. The company is looking to built a pilot manufacturing plant in NSW.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How our invention works</h2>
<p>In the next <a href="https://www.energynetworks.com.au/news/energy-insider/the-demise-of-coal/#:%7E:text=Share%3A,%2Dintensive%20coal%2Dfired%20generation.&text=Since%202016%2C%202.8%20GW%20of,end%20of%20its%20productive%20life">two decades,</a> many coal-fired power stations around the world will retire or be decommissioned, including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/12/almost-two-thirds-of-australias-coal-fired-generation-will-be-out-by-2040-aemo-says">in Australia</a>. Our proposed storage may mean power stations could be repurposed, retaining infrastructure and preventing job losses.</p>
<p>For coal stations to use our technology, the furnace and boiler must be removed and replaced by a storage unit containing MGA blocks.</p>
<p>MGA blocks are 20cm x 20cm x 16cm. They essentially comprise a blend of metals – some that melt when heated, and others that don’t. Think of a block as like a choc-chip muffin heated in a microwave. The muffin consists of a cake component, which holds everything in shape when heated, and the choc chips, which melt.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/japan-is-closing-its-old-dirty-power-plants-and-thats-bad-news-for-australias-coal-exports-144452">Japan is closing its old, dirty power plants – and that's bad news for Australia's coal exports</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The blocks don’t just store energy – they heat water to create steam. In an old coal plant, this steam can be used to run turbines and generators to produce electricity, rather than burning coal to produce the same effect.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bt-Ux48Aohw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Courtesy University of Newcastle.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To create the steam, the blocks can be designed with internal tubing, through which water is pumped and boiled. Alternatively, the blocks can interact with a heat exchanger – a specially designed system to heat the water. </p>
<p>Old coal plants could run on renewable energy that would otherwise be switched off during periods of oversupply in the middle of the day (in the case of solar) or times of high wind (wind energy).</p>
<p>Our research <a href="https://www.rees-journal.org/articles/rees/full_html/2017/01/rees170037s/rees170037s.html">has shown</a> the blocks are a fraction the cost of a lithium battery of the same size, yet produce the same amount of energy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Coal worker" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356781/original/file-20200907-14-2qzvko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356781/original/file-20200907-14-2qzvko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356781/original/file-20200907-14-2qzvko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356781/original/file-20200907-14-2qzvko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356781/original/file-20200907-14-2qzvko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356781/original/file-20200907-14-2qzvko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356781/original/file-20200907-14-2qzvko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The technology may help prevent job losses in the coal industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">KYDPL KYODO/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Proving MGA blocks in the real world</h2>
<p>Our team perfected the novel material through research at the University of Newcastle between 2010 and 2018. Last year we formed a company, MGA Thermal, and are focused on commercialising the technology and conducting real-world projects. </p>
<p>In July this year, MGA Thermal received a A$495,000 grant from the federal Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, to establish a pilot manufacturing plant in Newcastle, New South Wales. This project is due to start operating in the second half of next year. The goal is to begin manufacturing a commercial quantity of MGA blocks economically, at scale, for large demonstration projects. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-carbon-emissions-fell-during-covid-19-but-its-the-shift-away-from-coal-that-really-matters-138611">Yes, carbon emissions fell during COVID-19. But it's the shift away from coal that really matters</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>MGA Thermal have partnered with a Swiss company, E2S Power AG, to test the technology in the rapidly changing coal-fired power industry in Europe. Beginning next year, the testing will include retrofitting a functioning coal power plant with MGA storage. This will also verify the economic case for the technology.</p>
<p>We are aiming for a cost of storage of A$50 per kilowatt hour, including all surrounding infrastructure. Currently, lithium-ion batteries cost <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices">around A$200 per kilowatt hour</a>, with added costs if energy is to be exported to the electricity grid. </p>
<p>So what are the downfalls? Well, MGA does have a much slower response time than batteries. Batteries respond in milliseconds and are excellent at filling short spikes or dips in supply (such as from wind turbines). Meanwhile MGA storage has a response time above 15 minutes, but does have much longer storage capacity. </p>
<p>A combination of all three options – batteries, MGA/thermal storage and hydro – would provide large-scale energy storage that can still respond quickly to fluctuating renewable supply.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/y3uwcBLBv-o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Courtesy University of Newcastle.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Safe and recyclable</h2>
<p>MGA blocks are safe and non-toxic – there is no risk of explosion or leakage, unlike some other fuels.</p>
<p>The blocks can also be recycled. They are expected to last 25-30 years, then can be easily separated into their individual materials - to be made into new blocks, or recycled as raw materials for other uses. </p>
<p>Like any new technology, MGA blocks must be financially proven before they’re accepted by industry and used widely in commercial projects. The first full-scale demonstrations of the technology are on the horizon. If successful, they could allow coal-fired power plants to be used cleanly, and provide hope for the future of coal workers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erich Kisi owns shares in MGA Thermal Pty Ltd.
He has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Accelerating Commercialisation program of the federal Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Post works for and owns shares in MGA Thermal. He has received funding from the Accelerating Commercialisation program of the federal Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources.</span></em></p>The blocks can be used to run steam turbines at power stations as a clean alternative to burning coal, and at a fraction of the price of storing energy in batteries.Erich Kisi, Professor of Engineering , University of NewcastleAlexander Post, Conjoint Lecturer, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1299872020-01-29T01:36:48Z2020-01-29T01:36:48ZHumans are good at thinking their way out of problems – but climate change is outfoxing us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311746/original/file-20200124-81341-1gvclnq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C33%2C4609%2C3667&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In some areas of human activity such as farming, we are exhausting our capacity to adapt to climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Mariuz/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0">growing evidence</a> that Earth’s systems are heading towards climate “tipping points” beyond which change becomes abrupt and unstoppable. But another tipping point is already being crossed - humanity’s capacity to adapt to a warmer world.</p>
<p>This season’s uncontrollable bushfires overwhelmed the nation. They left <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/six-firefighters-injured-three-dead-within-10-hours-20200124-p53uc4">33 people</a> dead, killed an estimated <a href="https://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/01/08/australian-bushfires-more-than-one-billion-animals-impacted.html">one billion animals</a> and razed more than 10 million hectares – a land area <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50951043">almost the size of England</a>. The millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide the fires spewed into the atmosphere will accelerate climate change further. </p>
<p>Humans are a <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/humans-may-be-most-adaptive-species/">highly adaptive species</a>. In the initial phases of global warming in the 20th century, we coped with the changes. But at some point, the pace and extent of global warming will outrun the human capacity to adapt. Already in Australia, there are signs we have reached that point.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change and its effects, such as drought, challenge the human capacity to adapt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Wine woes</h2>
<p>For Australia, the first obvious tipping point may come in agriculture. Farmers have gradually adapted to a changing climate for the last two decades, but this can’t go on indefinitely.</p>
<p>Take wine grapes. In the space of just 20 years, a warming climate means grape harvest dates have come back by <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/6559752/the-wine-industry-is-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine/">roughly 40 days</a>. That is, instead of harvesting red grapes at the end of March or early April many growers are now harvesting in mid-February. This is astounding. </p>
<p>The implications for wine quality are profound. Rapid ripening can cause “unbalanced fruit” where high sugar levels are reached before optimum colour and flavour development has been achieved.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-this-new-world-of-bushfire-terror-i-question-whether-i-want-to-have-kids-126752">In this new world of bushfire terror, I question whether I want to have kids</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To date, wine producers have <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/6559752/the-wine-industry-is-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine/">dealt with the problem</a> by switching to more heat-tolerant grape varieties, using sprinklers on hot days and even adding water <strong>to wine?</strong> to reduce excessive alcohol content. But these adaptations can only go so far.</p>
<p>On top of this, the recent fires ravaged wine regions in south-eastern Australia. Smoke <a href="https://www.afr.com/life-and-luxury/food-and-wine/the-hidden-cost-of-bushfires-smoke-taint-in-vineyards-20200120-p53szt">reportedly ruined many grape crops</a> and one wine companies, Tyrrell’s Wines, expects to produce <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/tyrrell-s-loses-80pc-of-grapes-due-to-fires-20200122-p53tr1">just 20% of its usual volume</a> this year.</p>
<p>At some point, climate change may render grape production uneconomic in large areas of Australia.</p>
<h2>The Murray Darling crisis</h2>
<p>Farmers are used to handling drought. But the sequence of droughts since 2000 – <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-australias-current-drought-caused-by-climate-change-its-complicated-97867">exacerbated by climate change</a> – raises the prospect that investment in cropland and cropping machinery becomes uneconomic. This in turn will negatively impact suppliers and local communities.</p>
<p>The problems are most severe in relation to irrigated agriculture, particularly in the Murray–Darling Basin.</p>
<p>In the early 1990s, it became clear that historical over-extraction of water had damaged the ecosystem’s health. In subsequent decades, policies to address this – such as extraction caps – were introduced. They assumed rainfall patterns of the 20th century would continue unchanged.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-bushfire-smoke-is-lapping-the-globe-and-the-law-is-too-lame-to-catch-it-130010">Australia's bushfire smoke is lapping the globe, and the law is too lame to catch it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However the 21st century has been characterised by <a href="https://watersource.awa.asn.au/environment/natural-environment/murray-darling-basin-drought-most-severe-on-record/">long periods of severe drought</a>, and policies to revive the river environment have largely failed. Nowhere was this more evident than during last summer’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-wrote-the-report-for-the-minister-on-fish-deaths-in-the-lower-darling-heres-why-it-could-happen-again-115063">shocking fish kills</a>.</p>
<p>The current drought has pushed the situation to political boiling point - and perhaps ecological tipping point.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-crisis-has-plunged-the-nats-into-a-world-of-pain-but-they-reap-what-they-sow-128238">Tensions</a> between the Commonwealth and the states have prompted New South Wales government, which largely <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/08/nsw-minister-altered-barwon-darling-water-sharing-plan-to-favour-irrigators">acts in irrigator interests</a>, to flag <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/13/states-threaten-to-quit-murray-darling-basin-plan-over-water-recovery-target">quitting</a> the Murray Darling Basin Plan. This may mean even more water is taken from the river system, precipitating an ecological catastrophe.</p>
<p>The Murray Darling case shows adaptation tipping points are not, in general, triggered solely by climate change. The interaction between climate change and social, political and economic systems determines whether human systems adapt or break down.</p>
<h2>Power struggles</h2>
<p>The importance of this interplay is illustrated even more sharply by Australia’s failed electricity policy.</p>
<p>Political and public resistance to climate mitigation is largely driven by professed concern about the price and reliability of electricity – that a transition to renewable energy will cause supply shortages and higher energy bills.</p>
<p>However a failure to act on climate change has itself put huge stress on the electricity system.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/some-say-weve-seen-bushfires-worse-than-this-before-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-key-facts-129391">Some say we've seen bushfires worse than this before. But they're ignoring a few key facts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Hot summers have caused old coal-fired power stations to <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/content/september-gas-coal-power-plants-have-broken-down-100-times-so-far-2018">break down more frequently</a>. And the increased use of air-conditioning has increased electricity demand – particularly at peak times, which our system is ill-equipped to handle. </p>
<p>Finally, the recent bushfire disaster <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/energy-grid-under-threat-as-bushfires-bear-down-on-power-lines-20200103-p53om1.html">destroyed</a> substantial parts of the electricity transmission and distribution system, implying yet further costs. Insurance costs for electricity networks are tipped to rise in response to the bushfire risk, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-23/power-prices-rise-blackouts-increase-bushfire-season-intensifies/11890646">pushing power prices even higher</a>.</p>
<p>So far, the federal government’s response to the threat has been that of a failed state. A <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-16/cabinet-dumps-clean-energy-target-for-new-plan/9056174">series</a> of <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjmuvPLvZvnAhWmxjgGHe_ZB0cQFjACegQIPBAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fclimatechangeauthority.gov.au%2Fsites%2Fprod.climatechangeauthority.gov.au%2Ffiles%2Ffiles%2FSpecial%2520review%2520Report%25203%2FClimate%2520Change%2520Authority%2520Special%2520Review%2520Report%2520Three.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3Po_SKPoPYvtjR0eKx9PA5">plans</a> to reform the system and adapt to climate change, most recently the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/08/scott-morrison-says-national-energy-guarantee-is-dead">National Energy Guarantee</a>, have floundered thanks to climate deniers in the federal government. Even as the recent fire disaster unfolded, our prime minister <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fire-what-fire-it-s-business-as-usual-in-morrison-s-canberra-bubble-20191206-p53hom.html">remained paralysed</a>. </p>
<h2>The big picture</h2>
<p>Australia is not alone in facing these adaptation problems – or indeed in generating emissions that drive planetary warming. Only global action can address the problem.</p>
<p>But when the carbon impact of Australia’s fires is seen in tandem with recent climate policy failures here and elsewhere, the future looks very grim.</p>
<p>We need radical and immediate mitigation strategies, as well as adaptation measures based on science. Without this, 2019 may indeed be seen as a tipping point on the road to both climate catastrophe, and humanity’s capacity to cope.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-hate-to-say-i-told-you-so-but-australia-you-were-warned-130211">Scientists hate to say 'I told you so'. But Australia, you were warned</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority and an active campaigner for action to mitigate global heating.</span></em></p>Australian winemakers have lost smoke-tainted crops and political leaders apparently cannot solve the Murray Darling crisis. Perhaps climate change is getting the better of us.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1201162019-07-18T14:31:25Z2019-07-18T14:31:25ZSouth Africa’s carbon tax matters – for the economy and tackling climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284068/original/file-20190715-173325-1119eh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C5038%2C3106&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's agriculture and food production industries are exempt from the carbon tax - for now. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Carbon tax is likely to be an effective way of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, which lead to climate change and have negative consequences for human life. But the carbon tax that’s been <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/2263/70144">introduced</a> in South Africa could cost jobs, unless people acquire skills that can be used in sectors that are not carbon-intensive. </p>
<p>Despite the fact that there will be winners and losers, overall, the tax should benefit South Africans.</p>
<p>Greenhouse gas emissions mainly from human activities such as carbon dioxide trap heat in the atmosphere, resulting in increased global temperatures and, in turn, unpredictable weather patterns. These changes – simply referred to as climate change – have led to <a href="http://theconversation.com/how-droughts-will-affect-south-africas-broader-economy-111378">devastating outcomes such as severe drought, heatwaves, flooding and wildfires</a>. </p>
<p>Climate change also affects agriculture, water resources, human health, infrastructure, ecosystems and energy. In 2015 United Nations member countries agreed in <a href="https://unfccc.int/about-us/about-the-secretariat">the Paris Agreement</a> to move faster towards a low-carbon future. </p>
<p>As one of the first measures to combat climate change, South Africa recently <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/2263/70144">introduced a carbon tax</a>. It’s <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31755">the only African country and one of only 57</a> globally to have done so.</p>
<p>The carbon tax is a tax on energy as most of South Africa’s carbon emissions are from energy generation and the industrial use of energy. As much as <a href="http://www.eskom.co.za/AboutElectricity/ElectricityTechnologies/Pages/Coal_Power.aspx">80% of South Africa’s primary energy</a> is powered by coal.</p>
<p>In a recently published <a href="https://rdcu.be/bFHuf">article</a> we showed that the carbon tax should reduce emissions <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333643662_Greening_the_South_Africa's_Economy_Could_Benefit_the_Food_Sector_Evidence_from_a_Carbon_Tax_Policy_Assessment">by 33% relative to the baseline by 2035.</a> </p>
<p>But the tax could lead to a welfare loss by reducing disposable incomes of consumers by about R100 billion over a 20 year period. Workers in carbon-intensive sectors are at particular risk of losing their jobs.</p>
<h2>The impact</h2>
<p>Sectors that are closely tied to fossil-fuel based energy will be worst affected. They include transport, iron and steel, and coal-generated electricity. Their output will decline relative to a business-as-usual baseline. </p>
<p>But the carbon tax will be good for jobs and production in the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333643662_Greening_the_South_Africa's_Economy_Could_Benefit_the_Food_Sector_Evidence_from_a_Carbon_Tax_Policy_Assessment">agriculture and food sectors</a>. This is mainly due to some tax exemptions. It’s also because agriculture contributes just <a href="https://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/environmental-tax-profile-south-africa.pdf">1% of carbon emissions</a>. </p>
<p>In the short term the exemption will support food security and some of the most vulnerable workers in South Africa. In the long term there’s a possibility that it will be phased out.</p>
<p>Understanding the effects of carbon tax is important for the environment and also for the South African economy. Economic growth has been <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=12200">sluggish for the past decade</a> and unemployment has risen from 21% <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/south-africa/unemployment-rate">to more than 27%</a>. </p>
<p>The carbon tax could affect this as it provides an opportunity to create more jobs as energy sources shift from fossil fuels to renewables. The most suitable renewable energy sources for South Africa are solar and wind. </p>
<p>Benefits might also flow from a reduction in cap carbon emissions – the main point of the tax. This would help farmers and <a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-tax-revenues-could-be-harnessed-to-help-south-africas-poor-117847">low-income households</a> because they’re the most affected by adverse weather conditions. </p>
<p>Other benefits could be better air and water quality.</p>
<p>In addition, a shift towards renewable energy could make the country more appealing, helping the efforts of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to attract foreign direct investment. The <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/ramaphosa-launches-ambitious-100bln-foreign-direct-investment-drive-14478188">target is $100 billion within five years</a>. </p>
<h2>What needs to be done</h2>
<p>Some important steps need to be taken in addition to the tax coming into force. The money should be used to build clean energy generation, otherwise the policy benefits will be limited and might not reduce emissions. <a href="https://rdcu.be/bFHuf">Recycling the revenue is a necessary condition</a> for this carbon tax to have long-term economic benefits.</p>
<p>Other policies must be adjusted and updated to work together with the newly introduced policy, and not against it. The carbon tax should apply to all producers and sellers, wherever production takes place. Trade policy should penalise imported goods that were produced using carbon-emitting processes. If the trade policy is not updated, imports will be more appealing than local products. </p>
<p>The food and agricultural sector must ensure it will have alternative energy sources in future. One way to adjust is to reduce food wastage, thus reducing production and energy. South Africans waste <a href="https://www.2oceansvibe.com/2018/10/01/the-staggering-numbers-behind-south-africas-food-waste-problem/">approximately 10 million tons of food per year</a>, which is one third of all food produced in the country and is valued at about R60 billion. </p>
<p>As new ways of generating energy change the structure of the economy, workers will need to acquire new skills. Some of the revenue collected will have to be used for this.</p>
<p>Most of South Africa’s energy supply is concentrated in <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=11292">the state-owned entity, Eskom</a>. Market concentration is usually inefficient and the losers are the consumers of the product or service. The movement towards renewable and cleaner energy will provide an opportunity for more players in this sector.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/70144">transport sector</a> is also a large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions due to its reliance on fossil fuels. The number of vehicles on the road need to be reduced. This requires investment in public transport; the number of busses and trains needs to be increased and their conditions have to be improved.</p>
<p>Reducing carbon emissions comes at a cost, and the benefits may not show for two or three decades. But it will be worth the wait. </p>
<p><em>Dr Sifiso Ntombela, chief economist at the National Agricultural Marketing Council, also contributed to the research and this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mmatlou Kalaba receives funding from National Research Foundation (NRF). He is affiliated with University of Pretoria and the Bureau for Food and Agricultutal Policy (BFAP). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heinrich Bohlmann is affiliated with the University of Pretoria and the South African Association for Energy Economics. </span></em></p>South Africa’s recently introduced carbon tax may lead to financial losses in the short term, but it’s necessary and will be beneficial in the long term.Mmatlou Kalaba, Senior Lecturer in Agricultural Economics, University of PretoriaHeinrich Bohlmann, Senior Lecturer, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1196072019-07-01T15:17:30Z2019-07-01T15:17:30ZRetire all existing and planned fossil fuel power plants to limit warming to 1.5°C<p>It will be very difficult to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by enough to halt global heating at 1.5°C – the threshold at which catastrophic climate change becomes more likely – according to <a href="https://nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1364-3">a new paper</a> published in Nature. </p>
<p>If the Earth <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">warms by more than 1.5°C</a>, millions of people could be displaced by sea level rise and global crop yields could decline. Fortunately, political will to prevent this <a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-emissions-by-2050-says-uk-government-now-what-118712">seems more widespread than ever</a>. The UK recently became the first major economy to pass a commitment to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-becomes-first-major-economy-to-pass-net-zero-emissions-law">net zero emissions by 2050 into law</a>. Sounds positive, so what’s the problem?</p>
<p>Well, the new study has shown that if the world continues to use its existing power plants, it’s likely that the target of 1.5°C will be exceeded. If all the fossil fuel plants and other carbon-emitting infrastructure that’s currently planned are built, this target will certainly be exceeded. There is a significant number of fossil fuel plants currently operating worldwide. Their continued use would mean enough greenhouse gas emitted to overrun the carbon budget for keeping world temperature rise below 1.5°C. </p>
<p>Excluding all other sources of emissions, the infrastructure that’s currently operational and planned to go into use within the next decade would consume two thirds of the world’s carbon budget for limiting warming to 2°C.</p>
<h2>The path to 1.5°C is narrowing</h2>
<p>People have known about the dangers of climate change <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html">since at least the 1980s</a>, but even so, the age of many fossil fuel energy plants currently operating worldwide is striking. Almost half of these power stations – running on coal, oil and gas – were commissioned after 2004. The Kyoto Protocol to limit greenhouse gas emissions came into force in 2005. The world is now committed to emissions from these plants unless they’re closed early. Even stopping the construction of new fossil fuel power stations won’t be enough to meet the target of 1.5°C.</p>
<p>Capturing and storing the carbon dioxide (CO₂) these plants produce <a href="https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2018/ee/c7ee02342a">would also help</a>, but this technology is needed on an industrial scale in almost every power plant to make a substantial impact. At the moment, there are only <a href="http://www.ccsassociation.org/faqs/ccs-globally/">21 in operation or in construction</a> in the whole world. There are plans for more, and in the UK <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/27/uks-biggest-carbon-capture-project-is-step-change-on-emissions">there are plans to capture carbon</a> from a chemical plant in Cheshire and from Drax, the UK’s biggest power plant. But previous plans for carbon capture and storage at <a href="https://sequestration.mit.edu/tools/projects/white_rose.html">Drax were scrapped in 2015</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/glue-could-be-the-magic-ingredient-for-cheap-and-efficient-co-capture-119441">Glue could be the magic ingredient for cheap and efficient CO₂ capture</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Drax currently runs 50% on biomass – organic material, such as wood or other crop plants. It’s considered a renewable fuel as the timescale to produce it is relatively short. The carbon emitted from biomass is absorbed when the plants are growing and released when they’re burnt for energy. In this way, the technology is said to be a “net-zero” carbon emitter. This could be part of the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/beccs-the-story-of-climate-changes-saviour-technology">solution for reducing emissions</a>, but the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0961953415001609">life cycle impacts</a> of any energy solution need to be fully understood. If they aren’t, there’s a risk that more environmental problems could emerge.</p>
<p>Closing fossil fuelled power plants might be possible in some countries, but the difference in the average age of these plants across the globe is stark. Coal-fired power stations in China and India are on average just over ten years old. In the US and the European Union, the average age is over 30 years. The paper shows that the world’s newer plants are in countries where electricity demand is growing – it’s less likely they’ll be able to close them soon.</p>
<p>Existing electricity and industry infrastructure accounts for just under 80% of committed emissions – that is, those emissions that will come from the infrastructure that’s already in use. It might seem that the easy solution would be to just stop using it. But even as we commit to net zero emissions by 2050 in the UK, we’re supporting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/27/uk-spent-nearly-2bn-on-fossil-fuel-projects-overseas-last-year">fossil fuel projects overseas</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/16/uk-green-energy-investment-plunges-after-policy-changes">cutting funding for renewable technologies</a>. The new study shows that if the UK is serious about meeting our commitments, we cannot continue like this.</p>
<p>The study’s authors believe that the world has a reasonable chance of avoiding 1.5°C of warming if governments do two things. First, prohibit all new infrastructure that emits CO₂, including those which are proposed but haven’t been built. Second, retire existing infrastructure in industry and energy as soon as possible. Without these changes, the authors say, the goals adopted in the Paris Agreement are already in jeopardy. Fossil fuel-powered plants that can’t be closed need to be coupled with carbon capture and storage technology. </p>
<p>As climate emergencies are declared, this paper outlines the level of commitment that’s needed by everyone to deliver radical emission reductions. Without fundamental change to the current situation, our global climate will warm beyond 1.5°C.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1119607">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119607/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcelle McManus receives research funding from UKRI, in particular through the Supergen Bioenergy Hub. </span></em></p>A new study lays out what must happen immediately for any hope of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.Marcelle McManus, Professor of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1194412019-06-28T14:45:33Z2019-06-28T14:45:33ZGlue could be the magic ingredient for cheap and efficient CO₂ capture<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281773/original/file-20190628-94724-1yym98m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4800%2C3197&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/super-glue-tube-on-blue-background-1161037252?src=fPwLmvXZG8LGEZufI63U1g-1-15&studio=1">Ronstik/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Carbon capture and storage is a hot topic among researchers striving to save the planet from climate change. Scientists are constantly trying to develop and improve materials which can capture carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere. At the <a href="http://www.esri-swansea.org/en/">Energy Safety Research Institute (ESRI)</a> at Swansea University, we’ve developed a promising new material from a liquid amine - a chemical which is known for its ability to react with CO₂, but in liquid form can’t do so effectively.</p>
<p>By adding just enough glue to make the liquid amine fluff up into a solid, the resulting new material is capable of <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.chemmater.9b00574">capturing one-fifth of its own weight in CO₂</a>. The glue is a type of epoxy resin – used everywhere in paints, varnishes and flooring. Our work shows that epoxy resins can be a key ingredient in making effective carbon capture materials – and they have been staring us in the face for more than 70 years.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281781/original/file-20190628-94708-1qv0xc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281781/original/file-20190628-94708-1qv0xc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281781/original/file-20190628-94708-1qv0xc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281781/original/file-20190628-94708-1qv0xc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281781/original/file-20190628-94708-1qv0xc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281781/original/file-20190628-94708-1qv0xc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281781/original/file-20190628-94708-1qv0xc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281781/original/file-20190628-94708-1qv0xc6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The carbon sorbent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Louise Hamdy.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since huge advances are being made in <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-simply-bet-on-renewable-energy-to-stop-global-warming-68202">renewable energy</a> – and the UK’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/britain-has-shifted-30-of-its-electricity-away-from-fossil-fuels-in-just-nine-years-108969">reliance on fossil fuels has reduced</a> – is carbon capture technology becoming redundant? Unfortunately not. There remains about 1.5 times the concentration of CO₂ <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/news/7074.html">in the atmosphere that there was in pre-industrial times</a>. If we are to limit global warming to 1.5°C to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">avert the worst consequences of climate change</a>, atmospheric CO₂ will have to be captured on an industrial scale, and either <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acscatal.7b04347">made into useful new chemicals</a> or <a href="http://www.ccsassociation.org/what-is-ccs/">buried deep underground in depleted oil reservoirs</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-heres-what-must-be-agreed-to-keep-warming-at-1-5-c-107968">COP24: here's what must be agreed to keep warming at 1.5°C</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For all the damage it’s causing, CO₂ actually makes up <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/01/the-global-co2-rise-the-facts-exxon-and-the-favorite-denial-tricks/">only 0.04% of the atmosphere by volume</a>, making it very hard to extract directly from the air, which is the ultimate challenge. Our work was focused primarily on capturing CO₂ before it leaves smoke stacks at power stations where CO₂ concentrations range from 8-15% and temperatures can be between 40 and 100°C. </p>
<p>Power stations around the world <a href="https://theconversation.com/explaining-the-increase-in-coal-consumption-worldwide-111045">will continue to burn fossil fuels</a> until clean energy technologies are ready to fully replace coal and gas-based energy production, so their emissions have to be reduced as soon as possible.</p>
<p>Industrial processes that carry out CO₂ capture currently use liquid amines, but <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001191641500418X">this technology comes with problems</a>. It’s very expensive, not very efficient and the chemicals are highly corrosive and toxic to the environment. This is why we need something better which can match the scale of this problem.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281800/original/file-20190628-94728-1ae6nwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281800/original/file-20190628-94728-1ae6nwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281800/original/file-20190628-94728-1ae6nwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281800/original/file-20190628-94728-1ae6nwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281800/original/file-20190628-94728-1ae6nwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281800/original/file-20190628-94728-1ae6nwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281800/original/file-20190628-94728-1ae6nwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Glue molecules link amine polymers into a solid network – making them better at capturing CO₂.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Louise Hamdy</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The next generation of carbon capture</h2>
<p>So what’s special about this new glue-assisted CO₂ sponge? It’s a polymer made mostly from liquid amines which bind CO₂, and epoxy resin glue. We showed that the glue molecules stick the liquid amine molecules together into one solid mass. Being a solid makes it easier and safer to handle and much cheaper to reuse, compared to the current carbon capture materials which are liquid. The epoxy resin is also cheap and widely produced. When this and the liquid amine are combined, the solid material that forms is very effective at capturing CO₂. One variant was found capable of capturing almost 20% of its weight in pure CO₂ at 90°C.</p>
<p>This was a good indication that we had made a material that could suck up a lot of CO₂. But in the conditions of a smoke stack, the material would be exposed to a mixture of gases and would have to exclusively capture CO₂. We ran an experiment to see if it would take up nitrogen (N₂) – the most abundant gas in Earth’s atmosphere – but it didn’t, confirming that the material selectively binds CO₂.</p>
<p>We next wanted to test the material’s ability to capture CO₂ under the replicated conditions of the smoke stack. We tested the material with a stream of gas that was 10% CO₂ and 90% N₂ at 90°C. Once CO₂ was captured, the temperature was increased to 155°C to remove the captured CO₂ and regenerate the material so that it could be used again.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281775/original/file-20190628-94724-u3yjuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281775/original/file-20190628-94724-u3yjuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281775/original/file-20190628-94724-u3yjuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281775/original/file-20190628-94724-u3yjuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281775/original/file-20190628-94724-u3yjuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281775/original/file-20190628-94724-u3yjuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281775/original/file-20190628-94724-u3yjuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The material was tested to see how it would perform while inside a smoke stack.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industrial-smoke-stack-coal-power-plant-1032684853?src=IGYQJtd7K0tLnwNzvraB6g-1-6&studio=1">Kamilpetran/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The material captured 9.5% of its weight in CO₂ over 29 successive cycles – a pretty good performance for a material that would have to work constantly to capture and release CO₂ within a smoke stack.</p>
<p>The next test of this material’s performance was its ability to capture CO₂ under humid conditions as water is present in gas from a smoke stack. Humidity often causes solid CO₂ capture materials to perform badly as they suck up water instead of CO₂. But rather than hinder uptake, water actually helped this material capture more CO₂. Under humid conditions and at only 25°C, the CO₂ uptake from pure CO₂ was a huge 23.5%. This bodes well for one day capturing CO₂ directly from air.</p>
<p>This material could be the next generation in solid carbon capture materials. Glue: common, cheap and abundant, could yet find a new and valuable role in the fight against climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1119441">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119441/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louise Hamdy is funded by the Flexible Integrated Energy Systems (FLEXIS) research operation. This research was also funded by the Reducing Industrial Carbon Emissions (RICE) research operation, both of which are funded by the Welsh European Funding Office (WEFO) through the Welsh Government.
Louise Hamdy is a member of UK Carbon Capture and Storage Research Centre (UKCCSRC).</span></em></p>A key tool for capturing and storing carbon may have been hiding in plain sight all along.Louise Hamdy, Postdoctoral Researcher in Carbon Capture Materials, Swansea UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/975202018-09-14T10:34:22Z2018-09-14T10:34:22ZCould coal ash be a viable source of rare-earth metals?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235632/original/file-20180910-123101-126zyvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is more than waste stored in this pile of coal ash?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Coal-Ash-Oversight/5e4d19f0ebc9470c94c345f2b3fa063b/7/0">AP Photo/Steve Helber</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rare-earth elements, including neodymium and yttrium, are <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-rare-earths-crucial-elements-in-modern-technology-4-questions-answered-101364">not actually rare</a> – more common, in fact, in the Earth’s crust than <a href="http://periodictable.com/Properties/A/CrustAbundance.an.html">copper and tin</a>. But, because they are scattered widely, and hard to separate from their surrounding ores, mining and refining them is difficult.</p>
<p>Rare earths are valuable, too. They have unique properties that make them useful in modern energy and electronic products. Electric vehicles and wind turbines need high-performance electric motors and generators, which in turn require strong magnets made of <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/dysprosium-applications-3959893">neodymium and dysprosium</a>. Yttrium, terbium and europium are <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R41347.pdf">key to energy-efficient color displays</a> on laptop, cellphone and TV screens. Lanthanum is crucial to <a href="http://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/57/lanthanum">high-quality camera lenses</a>, and cerium acts as a catalyst in <a href="http://www.energenics.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/Envirox-Catalysis.pdf">automotive catalytic converters</a>. Researchers are looking for alternatives and substitutes, but it’s <a href="https://www.economist.com/babbage/2012/03/13/an-impossible-dream">not clear there are any</a>.</p>
<p>Most rare earths – <a href="https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/rare_earths/myb1-2015-raree.pdf">85 percent of the world’s supply</a> – are produced in China. The last U.S. rare-earth mine <a href="http://www.mining.com/producing-u-s-rare-earths-mine-goes-block-tomorrow/">closed in 2015</a>, leaving the country dependent on imports – and vulnerable when, as happened in 2010, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-wto-rareearths/china-loses-trade-dispute-over-rare-earth-exports-idUSBREA2P0ZK20140326">China stopped all rare-earth exports</a> in a trade conflict. </p>
<p>The fact that a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/14/world/asia/china-trade-war-trump-xi-jinping-.html">trade war could again cut off rare-earth supplies</a> has prompted some people to consider <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-29/flesh-eating-genital-infection-tied-to-rare-diabetes-drug-effect">reopening U.S. mines</a>. But <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HfpZ50cAAAAJ&hl=en">our</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=A9RAOJEAAAAJ&hl=en">research</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TX1RyUAAAAAJ&hl=en">has</a> identified another possibility: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.252">extracting rare earths from coal ash</a>, an abundant waste product with relatively high concentrations of these key elements.</p>
<h2>Coal ash as a source</h2>
<p>As a byproduct of burning coal to make electricity, the U.S. produces nearly <a href="https://www.acaa-usa.org/publications/productionusereports.aspx">80 million tons of coal ash a year</a>. About 43 percent of that is used as an ingredient in cement and to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2013.02.016">enrich soil with macro- and micronutrients</a>. The rest goes to landfills or gets mixed with water and stored in open ground pits called <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/21/health/epa-coal-ash-reaction/index.html">containment ponds</a>. </p>
<p>That coal ash contains <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.252">reasonable amounts of rare earths, particularly scandium and neodymium</a>. In ash from some types of coal, the concentrations of rare earths are as much as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618309338">100 times higher</a> than when <a href="https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/rare_earths/740400.pdf">they’re found naturally in the Earth’s crust</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235636/original/file-20180910-123107-1uqme7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235636/original/file-20180910-123107-1uqme7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235636/original/file-20180910-123107-1uqme7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235636/original/file-20180910-123107-1uqme7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235636/original/file-20180910-123107-1uqme7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235636/original/file-20180910-123107-1uqme7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235636/original/file-20180910-123107-1uqme7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235636/original/file-20180910-123107-1uqme7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ash from coal-burning power plants could provide a new source for rare-earth elements.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/central-utah-coalfired-power-plant-64949560">Gary Whitton/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Research, <a href="https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Coal/cross-cutting%20research/2018-REE-Portfolio.pdf">funded in part by government money</a>, has found at least three ways to extract rare earths from coal ash, though none is yet commercially viable. The first two methods, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydromet.2016.07.002">using acids and special bacteria</a>, are either too expensive or too time-consuming and therefore unlikely to be practical at an industrial scale.</p>
<p>A third route, which our research explores, uses heated, compressed carbon dioxide to selectively dissolve and extract the rare-earth elements. This form of carbon dioxide, called “<a href="http://www.chemengonline.com/supercritical-co2-a-green-solvent/?printmode=1">supercritical</a>,” has <a href="https://www.elsevier.com/books/supercritical-fluid-technology-for-energy-and-environmental-applications/anikeev/978-0-444-62696-7">several applications</a>, including in the food industry, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-is-caffeine-removed-t/">removing caffeine from coffee beans</a>.</p>
<h2>Using carbon dioxide</h2>
<p>Our research has found a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.252">potential route to profitability</a> for extracting rare earths from coal ash using supercritical carbon dioxide. There are still significant challenges, though.</p>
<p>First, the process needs other chemicals. Carbon dioxide is relatively cheap, but it can’t help rare earths clump together and separate from the other elements in coal ash. Doing that will likely require an expensive chemical such as <a href="http://www.kemcore.com/tributyl-phosphate-tbp-99.html">tributyl phosphate</a>. Researchers will need to find ways to use as little of that as possible to keep costs down.</p>
<p>Second, the process has to be especially efficient at extracting <a href="http://mineralprices.com/default.aspx#rar/">scandium and neodymium, which are particularly valuable</a>. Many coal ashes have lots of those elements – but not all, which raises the third challenge.</p>
<p>Some coal sources – and therefore the ash when that coal is burned – have more rare earths than others. We found that the value of rare earths in a single ton of coal ash can vary from US$99 at a coal plant in Ohio to $534 at a West Virginia plant. With extraction costs expected to range between $380 and $1,200 per ton, not every coal plant’s ash will be a profitable place to find rare earths.</p>
<h2>Dealing with the leftovers</h2>
<p>After the rare earths are extracted where possible – and profitable – the rest of the coal ash would not need to be handled any differently than it is already. But it would help the coal industry take a step toward a “<a href="https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/circular-economy">circular economy</a>,” in which anything one process generates as waste can be used as a raw material in another process. Further, the carbon dioxide and other chemicals needed for rare-earth extraction can be reused, reducing waste from the process itself.</p>
<p>This method would give the coal industry an additional stream of income – which would not likely reverse its decline, but could give coal a different strategic role in the country’s economy, even as its use as an <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/americans-used-a-lot-less-coal-in-2016/">energy source ends</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97520/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Saptarshi Das receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Williams currently receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Ford Motor Company. The research reported was done under a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabrielle Gaustad receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the steel scrap industry. She also consults for The Aluminum Association and the Institute for Defense Analyses. </span></em></p>Questions about supplies of rare-earth elements, crucial in high-tech devices, pushed researchers to look to industrial waste for new sources of the key materials.Saptarshi Das, Graduate Research Assistant in Sustainability, Rochester Institute of TechnologyEric Williams, Professor of Sustainability, Rochester Institute of TechnologyGabrielle Gaustad, Associate Professor of Sustainability, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1027182018-09-06T02:46:41Z2018-09-06T02:46:41ZCoal does not have an economic future in Australia<p>Renewables are stealing the march over coal in Australia, and the international outlook is for lower coal demand. Today the international <a href="https://coaltransitions.org/">Coal Transitions project</a> released its findings, based on global coal scenarios and detailed case studies by teams in China, India, South Africa, Australia, Poland and Germany. </p>
<p>Our research on <a href="https://coaltransitions.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/coal_australia_final.pdf">Australian coal transition</a> – based on contributions by researchers at the Australian National University and the University of Melbourne – looks into the prospects for coal use in Australia and for exports, and the experiences with local transition in the case of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hazelwood-closure-what-it-means-for-electricity-prices-and-blackouts-75135">Hazelwood power station closure</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hazelwood-closure-what-it-means-for-electricity-prices-and-blackouts-75135">Hazelwood closure: what it means for electricity prices and blackouts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Coal exports</h2>
<p>Coal production in Australia is likely to be on a long term declining trajectory. Almost all coking coal (coal used for making steel) mined in Australia is exported, as is around 70% of steam coal (for electricity generation). Australia supplies about a fifth of the global steam coal trade. </p>
<p>A question mark hangs over the future of steam coal exports. Economic, technological and policy developments in other countries all point to likely falling coal use over time. The international coal transitions <a href="https://coaltransitions.org/%20website%20goes%20up%202am%20on%20Thursday">synthesis report</a> expects that global coal consumption will go into reverse by the early 2020s.</p>
<p>In most industrialising countries, there are big concerns about local air pollution, and renewable power alternatives are becoming cost-competitive with coal. Add to that the pressure to meet Paris emissions targets. </p>
<p>China and India, on which much of the <a href="http://www.minerals.org.au/sites/default/files/180615%20MCA%20Thermal%20Coal%20Outlook%20Study.pdf">hopes of Australia’s coal export industry</a> are pinned, mine coal themselves. When overall coal use in these countries falls, imports may be curbed, if only because of pressures to prop up domestic coal mining.</p>
<h2>Coal in Australia’s power sector</h2>
<p>Most coal used in Australia is for power generation. We are at the start of a fundamental change in the system, where coal power will be replaced by renewables, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-energy-storage-is-starting-to-rewire-the-electricity-industry-93259">energy storage and flexible demand-side response</a> to firm up the system. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-energy-storage-here-are-22-000-sites-for-pumped-hydro-across-australia-84275">Want energy storage? Here are 22,000 sites for pumped hydro across Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This change now reflects market economics. New wind farms and solar parks can now provide energy at much lower cost than any new fossil fuel powered generators. A new coal fired power plant would need subsidies, take a long time to build, and suffer exposure to future carbon policy. </p>
<p>The competition is now between renewables and existing coal fired power stations. Wind and solar power cost next to nothing to run once built, so they are dispatched first on the grid and tend to bring wholesale market prices down. In turn, the economics of coal power plants deteriorates. They will not be able to sell as much power, and get lower prices on average for every megawatt-hour of electricity produced. New wind and solar is now contracted at prices close to the operating cost of some existing coal plants, and renewables costs are falling further.</p>
<p>Coal plants will be less and less profitable. They will tend to be shut down earlier, typically when major repairs or overhauls are due. Major refurbishments will tend to become unattractive. And the system does not need coal plants to run reliably. A combination of regionally dispersed renewables, pumped hydro and battery storage, gas plants and demand response will do the job. </p>
<p>It is difficult to predict just when coal plants will shut down. The following graphic illustrates the difference between a flat 50-year retirement pattern (as used for example by the <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/ISP/2018/Integrated-System-Plan-2018_final.pdf">Australian Energy Market Operator</a>), with plants retiring at 40 years of age, in line with the average retirement age of plants over the past decade, and two illustrative scenarios that capture the fact that coal plants will come under increasing economic pressure. </p>
<p>In our “moderate” scenario, remaining coal plants retire at 55 years in 2017 and progressively retire younger until they exit at age 30 by 2050. In our “faster” scenario, plants exit at 50 years now, then progressively younger until they exit at age 30 by 2030.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234983/original/file-20180905-45172-1nuxatr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234983/original/file-20180905-45172-1nuxatr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234983/original/file-20180905-45172-1nuxatr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234983/original/file-20180905-45172-1nuxatr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234983/original/file-20180905-45172-1nuxatr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234983/original/file-20180905-45172-1nuxatr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234983/original/file-20180905-45172-1nuxatr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal closure scenarios from Coal Transitions Australia report.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even more rapid closure scenarios are plausible if the cost of renewables and storage continue on their recent trends. We do not present them here, instead opting for relatively conservative assumptions.</p>
<p>The pace of closure makes a big difference to emissions. In the “moderate” scenario, cumulative emissions from coal use are around 2.6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO₂) during 2020-50, and in the “faster” scenario around 1.8 GtCO₂. </p>
<p>As a reference point, a “2 degree compatible” <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/files/Target-Progress-Review/Targets%20and%20Progress%20Review%20Final%20Report.pdf">emissions budget</a> for Australia proposed by Australia’s Climate Change Authority has a total national emissions budget of around 5.8 GtCO₂ from 2020-50. Our “moderate” scenario has coal emissions take up around 44% of that cumulative emissions budget, while the “faster” scenario takes up around 32%. By comparison, coal currently makes up around 30% of Australia’s annual net emissions. </p>
<p>It is no longer true that reducing emissions in the electricity sector necessarily means higher prices. These days, and in the future, having policy to guide the replacement of ageing coal capacity with cheap renewables is a win-win for consumers and the environment. </p>
<h2>We had better get ready</h2>
<p>We better put our efforts in preparing for the transition, rather than trying to stem the tide. That includes a meaningful policy treatment of carbon emissions, and mechanisms to allow more predictable exit pathways. The relatively sudden closures of the Hazelwood power station is an example of how not to manage the transition. </p>
<p>Wholesale prices jumped up because the replacement investment takes time, and governments scrambled to provide support to the local community after the fact. </p>
<p>We can do much better. Australia is <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-not-on-track-to-reach-2030-paris-target-but-the-potential-is-there-102725">well placed</a> for a future built on renewable energy. The change can be painful if it’s not well managed, but the future looks bright.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-not-on-track-to-reach-2030-paris-target-but-the-potential-is-there-102725">Australia is not on track to reach 2030 Paris target (but the potential is there)</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102718/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo leads various externally funded research projects at ANU. He has no conflict of interest with regard to the issues discussed in this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salim Mazouz receives funding from various organisation in his role as Principal at the consultancy NCEconomics. He has no conflict of interest with regard to the issues discussed in this article.</span></em></p>An international report has found there’s no future for Australia’s coal exports.Frank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversitySalim Mazouz, Research Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy; and Principal at NCEconomics, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/946512018-04-09T06:55:44Z2018-04-09T06:55:44ZAGL’s plan to replace Liddell is cheaper and cleaner than keeping it open<p>The Commonwealth government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/08/josh-frydenberg-lobbies-agl-board-to-force-liddell-power-plant-sale">called</a> last week for AGL Energy to consider selling its Liddell power station to rival Alinta. </p>
<p>Federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has raised concerns that the scheduled 2022 shutdown of Liddell will affect New South Wales’ energy reliability. It’s suggested the sale would provide a way to keep the ageing power station open past the end of its normal 50-year operating life.</p>
<p>However, AGL responded to <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/NEM_ESOO/2016/v2/2016-Electricity-Statement-of-Opportunities-Report_V2.pdf">government concerns</a> in December 2017 by releasing a replacement plan. Liddell’s theoretical maximum output is 1,800 megawatts (MW), but the firm capacity – the power that can be relied upon at peak time – is 1,000 MW. AGL is confident this can be replaced by a mix of improved efficiency, renewables and demand response. </p>
<h2>AGL’s proposal unpacked</h2>
<p>Late last year, in response to the Commonwealth government’s pressure, AGL updated its <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/-/media/AGL/About-AGL/Documents/Media-Center/ASX-and-Media-Releases/2017/171209NSWGenerationPlanDecember2017.pdf?la=en&hash=529E1A89370A33DA8F378D761CEEF1D919C9C91D">Liddell replacement plan</a>. The updated plan includes generator efficiency upgrades, new natural gas and renewable energy generation capacity, and demand response.</p>
<p>This plan builds on the planned 2022 closure of the Liddell station. Phased investments in new, low-emissions generation and upgrades to existing generation will replace the 1,000 MW of coal-fired power by: </p>
<ul>
<li>increasing the capacity of AGL’s nearby Bayswater coal-fired power station by 100MW<br></li>
<li>installing 750MW of high-efficiency gas power (at potential sites in Newcastle and/or elsewhere in NSW)</li>
<li>adding 1,600MW of new renewable generation capacity (wind and solar farms)</li>
<li>providing 100MW of firm capacity from demand response and 250MW from battery storage.</li>
</ul>
<p>The replacement portfolio is split into three stages. The first aims for 550MW of new generation: 300MW from two solar power plants, to be built by third-party developers, and 250MW from a new gas peaking power station located at Newcastle (or other suitable sites in NSW). </p>
<p>Further, AGL has already approved 650MW of wind projects. The Bayswater efficiency upgrade will add 100MW to the capacity without burning any additional coal. </p>
<p>This, along with the 20MW of demand response, will provide the “firm capacity” required to meet existing customer needs, in line with the federal <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-the-national-energy-guarantee-at-a-glance-85832">National Energy Guarantee</a>. The “firm capacity factor” is the proportion of the installed capacity (the theoretical maximum) that can be relied upon to be available at peak time. </p>
<p>The next two stages will progressively add new capacity from renewables, battery storage and demand response to meet the energy needs of AGL’s potential uncontracted customers. Stage 2 and Stage 3 feasibility is expected to start by 2020 and 2021 respectively, for a 2022 delivery.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oFy9x/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="325"></iframe>
<h2>AGL is relying on the market</h2>
<p>AGL’s Liddell replacement plan is designed to provide an equivalent amount of energy and dispatchable power at a similar level of reliability. </p>
<p>The plan’s total investment of A$1.36 billion is more than the A$920 million estimate of the <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/-/media/AGL/About-AGL/Documents/Media-Center/ASX-and-Media-Releases/2017/171209NSWGenerationPlanDecember2017.pdf?la=en&hash=529E1A89370A33DA8F378D761CEEF1D919C9C91D">2027 Liddell extension plan</a>, but once operating and fuel costs are included the average cost of replacement generation is more affordable at A$83 per megawatt hour (MWh), compared with extending the life of Liddell at A$106 per MWh. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213798/original/file-20180409-114109-oinjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213798/original/file-20180409-114109-oinjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213798/original/file-20180409-114109-oinjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213798/original/file-20180409-114109-oinjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213798/original/file-20180409-114109-oinjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213798/original/file-20180409-114109-oinjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213798/original/file-20180409-114109-oinjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213798/original/file-20180409-114109-oinjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Levelised cost of energy based on information sourced by AGL including: the capital cost of the Liddell life extension works as advised by Worley Parsons (Advisian). AGL’s discount rate in line with their commercial target returns. Westpac Banking Corporation’s forecast of the Newcastle coal price discounted based on the lower calorific value required for power station coal. A carbon emissions cost has been included as per AEMO’s ‘moderate’ 2015 scenario.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.agl.com.au/-/media/AGL/About-AGL/Documents/Media-Center/ASX-and-Media-Releases/2017/171209NSWGenerationPlanDecember2017.pdf?la=en&hash=529E1A89370A33DA8F378D761CEEF1D919C9C91D">AGL's NSW Generation Plan</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though the replacement plan has an installed capacity of 2,900MW, it accounts for a firm capacity of 1,000MW. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Media_Centre/2018/Liddell-Advice_Final_.pdf">Australian Energy Market Operator</a> has endorsed AGL’s Liddell replacement plan. It said the plan provides more than enough energy and capacity to meet the potential shortfall created by the closure if AGL completes all three stages by the 2022 deadline. </p>
<p>Some of this plan is already under way, as the AGL board has approved the upgrades at Bayswater and Liddell and the new solar and wind power plants. However, the next two stages are dependent on market signals and investments other companies make in new resources. </p>
<p>If stages 2 and 3 of AGL’s plan are not undertaken in time and other market players do not invest, there could be a reliability gap that results in supply interruptions. While this is unlikely to occur, this is exactly the type of problem that the government’s National Energy Guarantee is supposed to fix. The guarantee envisions that retailers carry the responsibility of meeting the required amount for dispatchable energy. Failure to do so would invite financial penalties, with the energy market operator stepping in as the procurer of last resort. </p>
<p>However, AGL has proposed an adequate plan to meet the gap that the Liddell closure would create. It’s ultimately improbable that regulator intervention will be needed. </p>
<p>That said, AGL’s plan is not necessarily the best plan. There are other lower-emission options that are more cost-effective. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/article/downloads/Beyond%20Coal-%20Alternatives%20to%20Extending%20Liddell%20Power%20Station%20%28FINAL%29%20Nov%202017.pdf">study</a> by the Institute for Sustainable Futures (which I have contributed to) proposes a third “clean energy package”, including renewable energy, energy efficiency, energy storage, demand response and flexible pricing. Rather than selling Liddell, if the Commonwealth is looking for low-cost and reliable solutions, this is the approach it should be pursuing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94651/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Institute for Sustainable Futures undertakes paid sustainability research for a wide range of government, corporate and NGO clients. </span></em></p>Government pressure on AGL to keep its Liddell power plant open past 2022 ignores the sensible, cost-effective plan to replace it.Kriti Nagrath, Senior Research Consultant, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.