tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/conservatism-6765/articlesConservatism – The Conversation2024-02-07T08:36:12Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219302024-02-07T08:36:12Z2024-02-07T08:36:12ZFive signs that you might be rightwing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573119/original/file-20240202-25-p9hoyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C152%2C5928%2C3835&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rear-businessman-front-crossroad-signpost-arrows-1589679016">Shutterstock/StunningArt</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Europe is anticipated to <a href="https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/">take a sharp right turn</a> in this year’s European parliament elections. The past decade has already seen a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23210230231166197">rightward shift in India</a>, and the United States has the greatest gap between left and right <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/">for 50 years</a>. In light of these global trends, it’s crucial to understand what being “rightwing” actually means, rather than simply <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/cultural-revolution-9781632864239/">using the term as an insult</a>.</p>
<p>The idea of “the right” <a href="https://time.com/5673239/left-right-politics-origins/">originated</a> in the French National Assembly of 1789. There, it described those who supported giving the king veto powers (who were to gather on the right hand side of the assembly hall). Today, however, “the right” covers a wide range of political positions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A painting of hundreds of people gathered in a large building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573126/original/file-20240202-29-1u00lq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The French National Assembly, where the first (literal) swing to the right took place.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/Estatesgeneral.jpg">Wikipedia/Bibliothèque nationale de France</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some are mainstream, such as conservatism (focusing on tradition and order), nationalism (promoting national sovereignty and identity), and neoliberalism (supporting free markets and small government). Others are more radical, including the <a href="https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/sites/default/files/assets/document/Stopfarright%20Final%20Report.pdf">far right</a>, <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/alt-right">alt-right</a>, and <a href="https://graymirror.substack.com/p/principles-of-the-deep-right">deep right</a>. New variants continue to emerge, like <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Conservatism/Yoram-Hazony/9781684511105">national conservatism</a> and forms of <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/618154/regime-change-by-patrick-j-deneen/">post-liberalism</a>. </p>
<p>Such diversity makes it hard to define what being rightwing entails. Yet, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/19485506221119324">a recent study</a> of over 5,000 people in the US shed new light on the matter. </p>
<h2>The five signs</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/19485506221119324">This study</a>, which used a more robust approach than much previous research, found that the more strongly someone identified as conservative or rightwing, the more likely they were to agree with five specific viewpoints:</p>
<p><strong>1. Belief in hierarchy</strong>. Most indicative of being on the political right was seeing the world as naturally hierarchical. This means believing that everything, from people to animals and objects, can be ranked based on their importance, quality or value. It’s not that people on the right want the world to be this way; they just think it naturally is.</p>
<p><strong>2. Sense that the universe has purpose.</strong> Rightwing people tended to believe there was more to the universe than just the mechanical movement of molecules. They believed it was in some sense alive and felt there was a deeper reason or purpose behind events.</p>
<p><strong>3. Acceptance of the status quo.</strong> Rather than striving to constantly improve the world, those on the right were more inclined to accept things as they were. They didn’t necessarily see the world as something that always needs fixing or changing.</p>
<p><strong>4. Resistance to new experiences.</strong> Being rightwing was linked with a certain reluctance to try new things. This mindset opposes the idea that everything is worth trying or doing at least once.</p>
<p><strong>5. Belief in a just world.</strong> Rightwing people tended to believe that the world is a place where working hard and being nice pays off. In such a world, people get what they deserve.</p>
<p>It is easy to see how common rightwing preferences, such as valuing tradition, religion, authority, personal responsibility, family <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/nana.12924">and country</a>, follow from these five beliefs.</p>
<h2>Why do people become rightwing?</h2>
<p>Contrary to popular opinion, people don’t simply become more conservative as they age. Our political views <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/706889">stay pretty consistent</a> throughout our lives. Instead, many factors influence the development of rightwing beliefs.</p>
<p>Genes gently mould our political views. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cobeha.2020.03.012">About 40% of the difference</a> between people’s political beliefs can be linked to their genetic makeup. </p>
<p>Some, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2009.11.013">not all</a>, researchers think this is because genes impact aspects of personality, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/tp201596">such as openness to experience</a>, which shape our political views. Genes could also make people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12230">more sensitive to threats</a> from changing circumstances, encouraging rightwing beliefs.</p>
<p>You may wonder what rightwing adults were like as children. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2005.09.005">One study found that</a> young conservative adults had often been preschoolers who felt “easily victimized, easily offended, indecisive, fearful, rigid, inhibited, and relatively over-controlled and vulnerable”.</p>
<p>This could have been a result of parental upbringing, which can also shape people’s political views. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797612440102">Research has found that</a> young rightwing adults were more likely to have had authoritarian parents when they were infants.</p>
<p>All this creates <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052970">rightwing brains</a>. For example, young rightwing adults tend to have an amygdala – part of the brain linked to fear and uncertainty – that is both <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2011.03.017">larger</a> and more active <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/scan/nsx133">in the face of threat</a>.</p>
<p>Yet the state of society also influences how common rightwing beliefs are. The more threats a country faces, such as high unemployment, inflation and murder rates, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12014">more common rightwing beliefs</a> are.</p>
<h2>Living with the right</h2>
<p>Such research could lead you to think that people hold rightwing views simply because they are scared and unadventurous. The right already face the prejudice that their beliefs result from their being “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721413514249">mentally troubled</a>”, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672221089451">stupid, or immoral</a>. </p>
<p>This leaves little space for the alternative idea that people hold rightwing beliefs after careful thought about the nature of humans and the world. Those with different political beliefs may disagree with the right’s conclusions. Yet it is always easier to denigrate the character of rightwing people than to evaluate the validity of rightwing ideas.</p>
<p>In reality, being on the right doesn’t mean poor psychological health. Having rightwing views are not linked to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167213478199">unhappiness, low self-esteem or lower life satisfaction</a>.</p>
<p>Nor can the entire rightwing be dismissed as immoral. The right simply has different <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0015141">moral foundations</a> to the left. Leftwing morality <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0015141">focuses on preventing harm and being fair</a>. While these issues also matter to the right, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0015141">rightwing morality additionally emphasises</a> respect for <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/suppl/10.1177/19485506221119324/suppl_file/sj-docx-1-spp-10.1177_19485506221119324.docx">authority, purity and loyalty</a>.</p>
<p>This leaves us with the left’s perception that people on the right are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672221089451">more stupid than evil</a>. Here things get complicated. People with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/per.2027">worse thinking skills are more likely to endorse rightwing beliefs</a>. Conservative political beliefs <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0424">are linked to</a> a lesser ability to hold information in mind, plan and adapt to changing situations.</p>
<p>However, it could be that rightwing people are simply <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2019.104124">less motivated to do well</a> on such tasks. Furthermore, holding rightwing economic views <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672211046808">may be linked to better thinking skills</a>, while leftwing authoritarianism is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000341">linked to poorer thinking skills</a>. </p>
<p>Crucially, all this tells us precisely nothing about the validity of rightwing ideologies. These must be judged on their merits, not their holders.</p>
<p>As societies become more politically divided, appreciating different viewpoints is essential to fostering dialogue and mutual understanding. When election time arrives we must debate with ideas rather than disparage with labels.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon McCarthy-Jones receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program via a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Innovative Training Network.</span></em></p>Being rightwing involves specific beliefs about the world but is also linked to our genes and environment.Simon McCarthy-Jones, Associate Professor in Clinical Psychology and Neuropsychology, Trinity College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2149342023-10-10T21:30:23Z2023-10-10T21:30:23ZAnti-trans protests: The Conservative party could use ideological polarization to win voters<p>The polarizing debates in Canada over issues of gender and sexuality recently led to heated demonstrations and counter-demonstrations in cities across the country. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://millionmarch4children.squarespace.com/educational-material">One Million March 4 Children</a> coalition that was behind the protests has its sights aimed at a range of issues related to sexual education in schools, <a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-94-007-0753-5_1137">including the teaching of gender theory</a>. The coalition <a href="https://millionmarch4children.squarespace.com/supporters">includes truckers’ organizations and members of the radical right as well as religious organizations</a>. </p>
<p>Since the demonstrations were mainly driven by different conservative movements, it was not surprising to note the presence of <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-america-to-ontario-the-political-impact-of-the-christian-right-107400">Christian groups</a> at the rallies. But the strong presence of immigrant communities, particularly Muslims, came as a surprise to many. During that week, both a Muslim association and a conservative nationalist Québec columnist, <a href="https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/09/03/nvld-s03.html">Mathieu Bock-Côté</a>, each from opposite ideological spectrums, denounced <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/with-omar-alghabras-departure-trudeaus-losing-his-point-man-in-the-muslim-community">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s call for a tolerant attitude</a> in almost identical terms. </p>
<p>Libertarian fiscal policies and highly conservative social policies have wind in their sails at the moment, and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t appeal to religious groups among different minority groups in Canada. </p>
<p>While Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada (PPC) has made gender issues its hobbyhorse, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) has been more cautious about jumping into the fray and has asked his MPs to exercise restraint. Yet his party could benefit from the polarization that the gender question is creating. Three elements seem to point in this direction. </p>
<p>Firstly, the CPC largely holds the evangelical Christian vote on moral values and could bolster the mobilization of this part of its base. Secondly, unlike many European populist right-wing parties, when it comes to anti-immigration rhetoric the CPC doesn’t have much room to manoeuvre. A party that wants to win federal elections in Canada cannot alienate immigrant communities. And finally, the search for a fault line within immigrant communities along the conservative/liberal axis over the question of sexuality and gender may alter the balance of political forces in the long term. Gender issues could be that fault line.</p>
<p>Respectively a professor of sociology at the Université du Québec à Montréal and a doctoral student in political science at Université de Montréal, our research focuses on nationalism, populism and political conflicts in Québec and Canada. </p>
<h2>The politicization of trans issues by the conservative right</h2>
<p>While there is nothing new about the religious right politicizing issues around sexuality, debates on gender and the inclusion of trans people have recently taken on greater importance. </p>
<p>The American right has been making these issues part of its general critique of liberalism for years. <a href="https://www.hilltimes.com/story/2023/07/17/how-the-political-right-are-contesting-pride-month-in-canada/392313/">The appropriation of these issues in Canada is more recent</a>. Bernier’s PPC has made opposing “gender ideology” an important part of its program. </p>
<p>More recently, bills proposed by the Conservative governments of New Brunswick and <a href="https://theconversation.com/saskatchewan-naming-and-pronoun-policy-the-best-interests-of-children-must-guide-provincial-parental-consent-rules-212431">Saskatchewan</a>, which would require school principals to notify parents of a child’s request to change their first name or pronouns, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-parents-should-be-defending-childrens-rights-rather-than-rushing-to/">have also sparked heated debates</a>. These debates pit “parental rights” against the rights of trans children to live in safety. In Québec, the use of gender-neutral first names and the <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/blainville-rejects-gender-neutral-washrooms-in-schools">question of gender-neutral washrooms</a> have been added to the list of issues fuelling this polarization.</p>
<h2>The conservative values of cultural minorities: a road to victory?</h2>
<p>CPC results in the last three elections fell short of its expectations. However, slipping support for the Liberals, inflation, and the issue of home ownership being out of reach have all helped the CPC make inroads among young voters, particularly young men. </p>
<p>In the last election, the CPC’s challenge was to reconcile the social conservatism of its base with a platform that would be acceptable to centrist voters. Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole stumbled over this problem. </p>
<p>Stephen Harper’s Conservative majority in 2011 owed its success to wins in ridings with a high proportion of immigrants in the Toronto area, notably in Mississauga, Brampton, Richmond Hill and Vaughan. While these ridings were not part of <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/the-winner/the-emerging-conservative-coalition/">Harper’s initial strategy</a>, the difficulty of rallying Québec nationalists forced him to change tack, so Harper turned his attention to the cultural minorities in Toronto’s suburbs. In addition to conservative values, these communities shared the Conservatives’ attachment to religion and to business friendly free-market policies. Harper also introduced <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/income-splitting-what-it-is-and-who-benefits-1.2818396">tax measures that favoured a traditional model of the family, often a patriarchal family structure</a>, which values the work of a single parent and where one spouse has a much higher income than the other. </p>
<p>Currently ahead in the polls, the CPC could make gains at the expense of the Liberals in Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Whitby and Pickering-Uxbridge, in some Toronto ridings, in Oakville and as far as the Hamilton suburbs. The CPC could also regain ridings in Greater Vancouver that it lost to the Liberals in the last election. </p>
<h2>PCC’s likely strategy</h2>
<p>Poilievre probably sees the politicization of gender and sexuality issues as an opportunity to bolster support for the CPC in the run-up to the next election. To achieve this, it is unlikely that he will follow the example of the People’s Party, which promised to limit the rights of transgender children, and choose not to interfere in provincial jurisdictions. </p>
<p>The CPC will probably stick to using dog whistles to call out “wokeism” and to support provincial governments and religious communities that denounce sex education programs. </p>
<p>That is exactly what Poilievre did at a gathering of Toronto’s Pakistani community in August. In a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-lgbtq-pronouns-schools-1.6950029">speech delivered as part of Pakistan’s Independence Day celebrations</a>, he defended religious freedom as well as the right of parents to “pass on their traditional teachings to their children,” and to “bring them up with their own values.” Earlier in the summer, he <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-new-brunswick-lgbtq-students-1.6889770">opposed federal government interference in New Brunswick’s policy requiring parental consent for LGBTQ students wishing to change their name or pronouns</a>. </p>
<p>The CPC could benefit from public <a href="https://angusreid.org/canada-culture-wars-gender-and-trans-issues/">support</a> on these issues. Although practices related to gender transitions <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/gender-affirming-care-canada-1.6967503">are rare in Canada</a>, they do spark the ire of conservative circles. </p>
<p>Other conservative positions, such as <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/local-news/poilievre-blames-wave-of-violence-in-alberta-on-prime-minister-justin-trudeau-and-ndp/wcm/d6805980-8a25-43ba-93be-fe44bd2d5b89">criticizing drug decriminalization in British Columbia and Liberal “wokeism” in response to crime</a>, could also strike a chord with religious voters. So a strategy based on fiscal conservatism, law and order, the traditional family and conservative sexual values could be very advantageous for the CPC in many ridings. </p>
<h2>What dilemmas for the opposition parties?</h2>
<p>The CCP’s strategy also calls into question those of the Liberal Party and the NDP. As defenders of ethnic communities and religious, sexual and gender minorities, but also as critics of Québec’s Bill 21 on secularism, these parties have been nurturing voters at opposite sides of this ideological polarization. </p>
<p>This development was predictable. The significant presence of certain cultural communities in anti-LGBTQ+ mobilizations shatters the simplistic idea promoted by the identitarian left that “diversity,” because it is often in a minority position, is necessarily liberal and progressive. </p>
<p>Immigrant communities are heterogeneous and their views on <a href="https://angusreid.org/canada-religion-interfaith-holy-week/">issues of freedom of conscience and expression</a> vary widely. But their community institutions, which are sometimes religious and patriarchal, don’t always fit with the Liberal and NDP orientation towards citizenship and sexual diversity.</p>
<p>Reactions from Québec’s nationalist milieu have been equivocal on these issues. On the one hand, the Bloc Québécois (BQ) says it <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-federal-election-lgbtq-1.5306119">supports LGBTQ rights</a> and will continue to do so, but on the other says it is <a href="https://www.ledevoir.com/societe/798447/opposants-defenseurs-droits-personnes-lgbtq-affrontent-rues-pays">incapable of taking a position at the moment and wants to listen to both sides of the divide</a>. The issue is also far from consensual among its provincial nationalist allies. Both the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and the Parti Québécois (PQ) <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/blainville-rejects-gender-neutral-washrooms-in-schools">raised concerns</a> around gender theory in schools. The PQ leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, went as far as speaking of a risk of seeing the “radical left” impose gender ideology on children. By refusing to take a clear position, the Bloc Québécois missed an opportunity to take a stand in favour of the rights of sexual minorities over those of outraged parents. By defending the right of provinces to use the notwithstanding clause, it chose to defend provincial autonomy over a defence of Quebec’s National Assembly’s stances on academic freedom and secularism. From the point of view of its constitutional strategy the BQ’s strategy is coherent, but it opens the way to criticisms that its defence of LGBTQ rights and secularism is asymmetrical. </p>
<p>The CPC could, however, be faced with the possibility of a province using the notwithstanding clause to pass legislation protecting “parental rights,” <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/moe-parental-rights-christian-pronoun-1.6961432">a use recently confirmed by Premier Scott Moe in Saskatchewan</a>. It would be tricky for Poilievre to, on one hand, defend conservative provinces using the notwithstanding clause, and on the other, oppose Québec using the clause to defend its laws on secularism and the French language. Both the BQ and the CPC could therefore face catch-22 decision-making situations. </p>
<p>So a window could be opening up for Poilievre and the CPC. Wear and tear on Liberal power along with repeated Liberal blunders and economic challenges are all contributing to this. That said, the growing support of young people from different social and political trajectories for conservatism is part of a series of broader social and demographic changes that could shake up the political landscape for years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214934/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative party could make gains by rallying the libertarian right, evangelical Christians and immigrant communities, especially Muslims, on issues of sexuality.Frédérick Guillaume Dufour, Professeur en sociologie politique, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)François Tanguay, Doctorant en science politique, Université de MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139712023-10-03T12:34:09Z2023-10-03T12:34:09ZReagan wouldn’t recognize Trump-style ‘conservatism’ – a look at how the GOP has changed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550741/original/file-20230927-19-66bw79.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C8%2C5459%2C3648&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mitt Romney, left, represents an old-fashioned GOP conservatism. Donald Trump, right, doesn't − and Romney is leaving politics.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-elect-donald-trump-gives-a-thumbs-up-as-mitt-news-photo/624809914?adppopup=true">Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Mitt Romney announced his intended retirement from the U.S. Senate on Sept. 13, 2023, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/11/mitt-romney-retiring-senate-trump-mcconnell/675306/">the Atlantic</a> published an excerpt from his upcoming biography, in which the 2012 Republican presidential nominee told author McKay Coppins, “A very large portion of my party really doesn’t believe in the Constitution.” </p>
<p>This claim would have been startling 15 years ago. For decades, the Republican Party has been the party of conservatism and a champion for the Constitution.</p>
<p>Romney is clear that Donald Trump, who leads what he calls a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BujDsieHkZE">“populist” and “demagogic” portion of the party</a>, is to blame. And Romney is not the only concerned Republican. </p>
<p>Former Vice President Mike Pence, now running for the GOP presidential nomination, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/09/06/1197887694/mike-pence-donald-trump-populism-conservatism-free-market-republican-party">recently asked a crowd</a> at a campaign event, “Will we be the party of conservatism, or will we follow the siren song of populism unmoored to conservative principles?” </p>
<p>What are the conservative principles Romney and Pence spoke about? And what has happened to them since Trump’s rise?</p>
<p>As a political scientist, I spent the past five years researching <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12664">ideological identity</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221112395">Trump’s effect on conservatism</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/abs/adversaries-or-allies-donald-trumps-republican-support-in-congress/1FA48BEAE419AD8348B3A2BB5A93CA5E">on the Republican Party</a>. </p>
<p>Defining “conservatism” is complicated. It has taken many forms over the course of U.S. history. It <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-reactionary-mind-9780190692001?cc=us&lang=en&">reinvents itself over time</a>. But a main tenet was summed up by President Ronald Reagan in his <a href="https://www.reaganfoundation.org/ronald-reagan/reagan-quotes-speeches/farewell-address-to-the-nation-1/">1989 farewell address to the nation</a>: “There’s a clear cause and effect here that is as neat and predictable as a law of physics: As government expands, liberty contracts.”</p>
<p>I focus here on features of what’s called “principled conservatism,” the cohesive belief system that emphasizes liberty and the status quo. </p>
<p>Here is a short inventory of these ideals and how they were violated in recent years. This is not an exhaustive list – but it captures much of Reagan’s style of conservatism, which has been the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/09/26/reagan-gop-presidential-candidates/">touchstone for most Republican presidential candidates until recently</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550743/original/file-20230927-17-tqnr4e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man dressed in a blue suit, white shirt and red tie posing in front of three American flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550743/original/file-20230927-17-tqnr4e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550743/original/file-20230927-17-tqnr4e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550743/original/file-20230927-17-tqnr4e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550743/original/file-20230927-17-tqnr4e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550743/original/file-20230927-17-tqnr4e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550743/original/file-20230927-17-tqnr4e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550743/original/file-20230927-17-tqnr4e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Vice President Mike Pence, now a GOP presidential candidate, has asked, ‘Will we be the party of conservatism, or will we follow the siren song of populism?’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-vice-president-news-photo/1683396110?adppopup=true">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Constitution and limited government protect liberty</h2>
<p>Outspoken conservatives <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/11/ronald-reagan-a-time-for-choosing-speech-defining-statement-modern-conservatism/">often emphasize the importance of the Constitution</a>, which established laws to protect the liberty of citizens. </p>
<p>First, the Constitution laid the groundwork for federalism, a system where <a href="https://theconversation.com/georgias-indictment-of-trump-is-a-confirmation-of-states-rights-a-favorite-cause-of-republicans-since-reagan-210610">local governments hold some level of power</a> to ensure the national government does not have absolute control. This is where the <a href="https://theconversation.com/georgias-indictment-of-trump-is-a-confirmation-of-states-rights-a-favorite-cause-of-republicans-since-reagan-210610">conservative phrase “states’ rights”</a> comes from. </p>
<p>Second, the Constitution <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/separation_of_powers_0">established checks and balances</a> between the three branches of government to prevent any one of them from abusing power. </p>
<p>These safeguards against tyranny are the beating heart of conservative thought.</p>
<p>But when Trump, <a href="https://projects.propublica.org/represent/members/trump-texas-amicus-house-members">backed by 126 Republican legislators</a> in Congress, tried to overturn election results of key states in 2020, it <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/10/politics/conservatives-states-rights/index.html">was seen as a violation of states’ rights</a> by conservative lawyers and a handful of Republican legislators. When only 17 Republicans <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/14/956621191/these-are-the-10-republicans-who-voted-to-impeach-trump">voted to impeach</a> <a href="https://rollcall.com/2021/02/13/trump-acquitted/">or convict Trump</a> for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, it gave the appearance that the abuse of power can go unchecked at the federal level. </p>
<h2>Government intervention should be restrained</h2>
<p>Since principled conservatism is averse to an overly active, centralized government, it typically opposes federal intervention in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDaFwokiFF0">business, increased spending, higher taxes, public programs</a> and <a href="https://www.heritage.org/agriculture/commentary/it-not-conservative-support-farm-subsidies-heres-where-conservative-icons">subsidies</a>. </p>
<p>But using the bully pulpit and his presidential powers, Trump threatened retaliation against companies <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-threatens-consequences-for-us-firms-that-relocate-offshore/2016/12/01/a2429330-b7e4-11e6-959c-172c82123976_story.html">that moved jobs overseas</a>, <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/national-debt-trump">increased the national debt</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/17/us/politics/trump-china-tariffs-trade.html">instigated trade wars by raising tariffs</a> and gave <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/us/politics/trump-farmers-subsidies.html">subsidies to farmers</a> who were harmed in the trade war process. These behaviors and policies also fly in the face of conservative principles.</p>
<p>Though Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley still considers Republicans to be <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2019/05/16/grassley-on-what-trump-really-believes-on-trade-437149">“a party of free trade,”</a> Trump’s trade war deviated from past GOP policies – with some exceptions – and was mostly met with <a href="https://www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan-institute/publications/is-the-gop-still-the-party-of-free-trade/">“statements of discomfort</a>.”</p>
<h2>Institutions can support stable civic life</h2>
<p>In addition to protecting limited government and free markets, conservatism strives to preserve American institutions such as the military and the justice system, in the belief that they help organize and maintain the stability of civic life.</p>
<p>Yet Trump’s rhetoric persistently attacked <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/17/business/trump-calls-the-news-media-the-enemy-of-the-people.html">the free press</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/11/trump-mar-a-lago-witch-hunt-fbi-doj-safety">the Department of Justice, the FBI</a> – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/18/opinion/trump-fbi-conservative.html">often considered a conservative organization</a> – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/09/us/politics/trump-military.html">military leadership</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/politics/trump-election-lies-fact-check.html">the integrity of the electoral system</a>. Some of these organizations enforce justice and hold government accountable through free speech, ideals that are embedded in the conservative principles <a href="https://mikejohnson.house.gov/7-core-principles-of-conservatism/">laid out by Republican Rep. Mike Johnson</a> for the Republican Study Committee in 2018.</p>
<h2>Conservatives in name only?</h2>
<p>Is Donald Trump solely to blame for the unraveling of American conservative ideals? </p>
<p>Yes and no. One the one hand, he is responsible for implementing anti-conservative policies like trade wars, eroding trust in institutions through his rhetoric and inspiring candidates to run for office in his image. </p>
<p>However, Trump is also a product of his voter base. He loses power without them and therefore often reflects what they want. What do they want, though? Here’s where it’s handy to know some political science.</p>
<p>One of the most <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08913810608443650">cited findings in political psychology</a> is that the average American lacks “ideological sophistication.” Most people simply don’t structure their politics around an abstract attitude about the proper role of government. This includes many Americans <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/ideology-in-america/F22017ACF5F39C3739E7C0E8D89501F8">who call themselves “conservatives</a>.” </p>
<p>Instead, people often form preferences by asking, “How will this policy or person help me and people who are like me? How will this <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/white-identity-politics/5C330931FF4CF246FCA043AB14F5C626">protect the status of my group</a>?” Positive feelings toward one’s own group and positive – or negative – feelings toward other demographic groups <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08913810608443657">hold real influence</a> over <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/715072">political orientations</a>. This is the stuff that motivates people politically – consequently, there has been a disconnect between the conservative ideals promoted by elites and the attitudes of their voter base. </p>
<p>You may hear conservative principles mentioned sporadically as the 2024 election nears. But until Republican voters reward politicians who embody them, it is unlikely actual conservative ideals do – or will – guide politics on the right.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213971/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karyn Amira does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Republicans Mike Pence and Mitt Romney both spoke recently about the conservative ideals that animate their politics − and which Donald Trump has violated. Do voters care?Karyn Amira, Associate Professor of Political Science, College of CharlestonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2107402023-09-19T12:19:35Z2023-09-19T12:19:35ZMoms for Liberty: ‘Joyful warriors’ or anti-government conspiracists? The 2-year-old group could have a serious impact on the presidential race<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544384/original/file-20230823-25-wxsuco.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C2964%2C1985&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Signs in the hallway during the inaugural Moms For Liberty Summit on July 15, 2022, in Tampa, Fla. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-reading-we-do-not-co-parent-with-the-government-is-news-photo/1241918008?adppopup=true">Octavio Jones/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Motherhood language and <a href="https://blogs.loc.gov/families/2020/08/suffrage-movement/#:%7E:text=The%20theme%20of%20motherhood%20in,have%20the%20right%20to%20vote.">symbolism</a> have been <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Political-Uses-of-Motherhood-in-America/Stavrianos/p/book/9781138777354">part of every U.S. social movement</a>, from <a href="https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/republican-motherhood#:%7E:text=This%20ideology%20became%20known%20as,citizens%20of%20the%20new%20republic.">the American Revolution</a> to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/05/09/mothers-have-long-used-their-identities-push-social-change/">Prohibition</a> and the <a href="https://madd.org/about-madd/">fight against drunk drivers</a>. Half of Americans are women, most become <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/01/18/theyre-waiting-longer-but-u-s-women-today-more-likely-to-have-children-than-a-decade-ago/">mothers</a>, and <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/388988/political-ideology-steady-conservatives-moderates-tie.aspx">many are conservative</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. is also a nation of organizing, so conservative moms – like all moms – often band together.</p>
<p>Lately, the mothers group dominating media attention is <a href="https://www.momsforliberty.org/about/">Moms for Liberty</a>, self-described “<a href="https://www.momsforliberty.org/about/">joyful warriors</a> … stok[ing] the fires of liberty” with the slogan “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/moms-for-liberty-parents-rights/2021/10/14/bf3d9ccc-286a-11ec-8831-a31e7b3de188_story.html">We Don’t Co-Parent with the Government</a>.” </p>
<p>Others see them as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/books/book-bans-libraries.html">well-organized</a>, publicity-savvy <a href="https://www.advocate.com/news/moms-for-liberty-agenda-pac">anti-government conspiracists</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.momsforliberty.org/">The rambunctious two-year-old group</a> was founded in Brevard County, Florida, to <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/mama-bears-2024-races-soccer-moms-gop-seeks-101586806">resist COVID-19 mask mandates</a>. It quickly expanded into the Southeast, now <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/moms-for-liberty-rises-as-power-player-in-gop-politics-after-attacking-schools-over-gender-race">claiming 120,000 members in 285 chapters</a> nationwide. Their <a href="https://www.momsforliberty.org/about/">mission</a> is to “figh[t] for the survival of America by unifying, educating and empowering parents to defend their parental rights at all levels of government.” </p>
<p>By “parental rights” they mean limiting certain content in schools and having local councils and boards run only by “<a href="https://www.momsforliberty.org/about/">liberty-minded individuals</a>” – which sounds like rhetoric from the American Revolution. </p>
<p>There’s historical precedent in this. Change the clothes and hairdos and these ladies could look like the conservative white women who <a href="https://bostonresearchcenter.org/projects_files/eob/single-entry-busing.html">opposed busing in 1970s Boston</a>, <a href="https://upcolorado.com/university-press-of-colorado/item/1830-wives-mothers-and-the-red-menace">supported McCarthy anti-communism</a> or <a href="https://www.npr.org/2011/10/02/140953088/elizabeth-and-hazel-the-legacy-of-little-rock">blocked integration in Southern schools</a>. Those women also formed mom-based groups to protest what they saw as government overreach into their families’ way of life.</p>
<p>But as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jnBSYuwAAAAJ&hl=en">a scholar of American politics</a> with a focus on gender and race, I also see differences. </p>
<h2>21st century conservatism</h2>
<p>Moms for Liberty skillfully leverages social media, drawing on a population activated by the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Tea-Party-movement">2009-2010 rise of the Tea Party</a> followed by the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/MAGA-movement">Trumpian MAGA movement</a>. Mask mandates were the trigger for the group’s formation, but <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia/moms-for-liberty-philadelphia-transgender-rhetoric-protests-lgbt-20230701.html">opposition to gender fluidity and queerness</a> has become its bread and butter – more 21st century than 20th. </p>
<p>How racial equality is talked about animates its work also, in a distinctly new way. The conservative position on race and government’s role in the past century has pivoted from enforcement of segregation and hierarchy to a kind of social “<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/laissezfaire.asp#toc-history-of-laissez-faire">laissez-faire</a>” – hands off – position to match the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reaganomics.asp">Reaganite</a> view that government is bad. </p>
<p>The extreme, hyper-male form of this anti-government, pro-traditional gender-roles ideology took shape as the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54352635">Proud Boys</a>, a number of whose leaders are now <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/jury-convicts-four-leaders-proud-boys-seditious-conspiracy-related-us-capitol-breach">under indictment and sentence</a> for their part in the Jan. 6 Capitol attacks. Moms for Liberty, while not going this far, shares similar beliefs and apparently has ties to the <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/5d93qd/moms-for-liberty-proud-boys">Proud Boys organization and leaders</a>. They don’t march with guns, but their actions undermine and impede local government.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4lBqVPTBQBw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">‘One minute you’re making peanut butter and jelly, and the next minute the FBI is calling you,’ said Moms for Liberty co-founder Tiffany Justice, testifying in the U.S. House of Representatives about government investigation of her group.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New kids in town making themselves heard</h2>
<p>The group’s roots stretch back to a heated 2020 school board election in Brevard County. Incumbent school board member Tina Descovich, <a href="https://www.floridatoday.com/story/life/family/2015/05/27/indialantic-mom-puts-family-community-first/28006345/">a local conservative activist mom</a>, was challenged by progressive newcomer Jenifer Jenkins. When Jenkins <a href="https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/08/18/election-2020-jenkins-set-defeat-descovich-school-board/3288519001/">won</a>, the conservative board majority ended.</p>
<p>Having lost electorally, Descovich – and the corps of like-minded moms she now represents – began to shift the conversation from the outside. They joined with moms in many red states angered by what seemed <a href="https://democracyjournal.org/magazine/67/the-new-new-social-conservatives/">fast-moving changes</a> involving <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html">race,</a> <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2022/06/28/americans-complex-views-on-gender-identity-and-transgender-issues/">gender and sexuality</a>, like the increasing numbers of people identifying as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/10/science/transgender-teenagers-national-survey.html">trans, queer or nonbinary, even at young ages</a>, the vast <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/11/15/about-six-in-ten-americans-say-legalization-of-same-sex-marriage-is-good-for-society/">changes in marital laws</a> and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/12/12/u-s-children-more-likely-than-children-in-other-countries-to-live-with-just-one-parent/">family structure</a>, and changing ideas about <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/08/25/americans-are-divided-on-whether-society-overlooks-racial-discrimination-or-sees-it-where-it-doesnt-exist/">whiteness, inclusion and equity</a>. </p>
<p>Moms for Liberty soon found success with disruptive tactics a VICE News investigation called a “<a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy3gnq/what-is-moms-for-liberty">pattern of harassment” of opponents</a> that include online and in-person targeting of school board members, parents or even students who disagree with the group. </p>
<p>Members in many chapters generate ill will by turning up to school board and other <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy3gnq/what-is-moms-for-liberty">meetings</a> – sometimes to the homes of public officials or teachers – yelling insults like “<a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy3gnq/what-is-moms-for-liberty">pedophile</a>” and “<a href="https://www.mediamatters.org/moms-liberty/moms-liberty-members-have-been-linked-incidents-harassment-and-threats-around-country">groomer</a>” at opponents.</p>
<p>For a newcomer, Moms for Liberty has had real victories. It has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/09/29/school-board-meetings-used-be-boring-why-have-they-become-war-zones/">disrupted countless meetings</a>, forcing local governance bodies to focus on topics important to the group such as lifting mask mandates and, more recently, removing curricular content that they deem controversial, such as texts on gender identity and racial oppression. </p>
<p>The group’s success in getting talked about is perhaps its greatest strength so far, moving it from outside disruptor to political player, at least locally. It has successfully supported many local candidates and <a href="https://theweek.com/education/1023631/how-moms-for-liberty-is-changing-the-education-debate">book bans</a>. </p>
<p>Specific examples of banned books include “<a href="https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/education/2023-07-12/florida-school-district-removed-5-books-after-moms-for-liberty-raised-concern-more-could-follow">Push</a>,” which inspired the award-winning movie “Precious,” and “<a href="https://www.marshall.edu/library/bannedbooks/me-and-earl-and-the-dying-girl/">Me, Earl, and the Dying Girl</a>,” also made into a movie. </p>
<h2>Disciplining members</h2>
<p>Despite its many chapters, Moms for Liberty is untried nationally, its total membership is still relatively small, and Federal Election Commission filings show it raising and spending <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/outside-spending/detail/2022?cmte=C00791848">little money</a>. The group lacks control over members, who have publicly embarrassed it. In one case, the Hamilton County, Indiana, chapter <a href="https://apnews.com/article/moms-for-liberty-adolf-hitler-newsletter-quote-bcce698e901b9e782970030ccd710512">quoted Hitler in a newsletter</a> – later apologizing. </p>
<p>At another point, an Arkansas member avoided criminal charges for saying, <a href="https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2022/06/22/moms-for-liberty-member-avoids-criminal-charges-over-comment-about-gunning-down-a-school-librarian">in a discussion about a librarian</a>, “I’m telling you, if I had any mental issues, they would all be plowed down by a freaking gun right now.” </p>
<p>These incidents mark the group not only as green, but also as part of the new right wing. Republican-leaning groups used to take a top-down approach to setting agendas and managing people, while Democratic organizations historically <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/W/bo5977742.html">cited democracy and equality</a> as both tools and goals, even if it meant <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/W/bo5977742.html">disorganization and failure</a>. </p>
<p>In the traditional top-down Republican party of yesteryear, Moms for Liberty would likely be marginal. In today’s disorganized, divided, <a href="https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1159027787">hyperpolarized GOP</a>, it may do quite well – which is not good news for democracy. </p>
<h2>Out of step, but useful</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544386/original/file-20230823-15-8pys36.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A poster encouraging people to run for school board." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544386/original/file-20230823-15-8pys36.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544386/original/file-20230823-15-8pys36.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544386/original/file-20230823-15-8pys36.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544386/original/file-20230823-15-8pys36.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544386/original/file-20230823-15-8pys36.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544386/original/file-20230823-15-8pys36.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544386/original/file-20230823-15-8pys36.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A poster helping those who want to run for a school board position is seen in the hallway during the inaugural Moms For Liberty Summit on July 15, 2022, in Tampa, Fla.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/poster-helping-those-who-want-to-run-for-a-school-board-news-photo/1241918219?adppopup=true">Octavio Jones/Getty Images)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pro-mom language is sometimes, in the old idiom, the velvet glove hiding the iron fist.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/">Southern Poverty Law Center</a>, which tracks organized hate activity, labeled Moms for Liberty “<a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/group/moms-liberty">extremist</a>.” Its empirical evaluation concluded <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/group/moms-liberty">that the group’s</a> chapters “reflect views and actions that are antigovernment and conspiracy propagandist.”</p>
<p>Moms for Liberty is ideologically out of step with the country and more anti-government than most Republicans. The majority of Americans are not in support of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-health-education-coronavirus-pandemic-only-on-ap-0440d83602da918c571d506a3de9f44b">lifting mask mandates</a> in the middle of a pandemic or <a href="https://www.everylibraryinstitute.org/review_recent_book_ban_polls">banning books</a>. </p>
<p>Among Republicans, there is disagreement over the teaching of controversial topics like racial justice, but book bans find <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-dont-want-books-banned-but-theyre-divided-over-what-schools-teach">low support</a>. Despite the current bitter political climate, most in the U.S. <a href="https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/404750/public-opinion-role-government.aspx">appreciate government and want it to work</a>. </p>
<p>Yet, some <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/-moms-for-liberty-becomes-major-political-player-in-republican-party-186196037701">media</a> refer to Moms for Liberty as a “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/30/politics/moms-for-liberty-2024/index.html">power player</a>” – and no wonder, when Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/30/trump-desantis-white-house-hopefuls-court-maga-moms-at-moms-for-liberty-bash-00104474">show up to court the group</a>. Moms for Liberty may be fringe, but its members could be of use to presidential hopefuls. </p>
<p>Why? The answer lies in some distinctly post-2010 electoral math. These days, only <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/03/14/political-independents-who-they-are-what-they-think/">a quarter to a third of voters align with each major party</a>, and less than <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/chart3-11.png?w=1424">a third of registered partisans turn out for primaries</a>. </p>
<p>So a sixth of each party – a small fraction of the overall population – now selects the nominees. And that sixth is <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/political-polarization-and-voters-in-the-2018-congressional-primaries/">not representative</a> – it is far more opinionated and angry. Moms for Liberty, having organized small, ideological voting armies in swing states, is in the envious position of representing a concentrated and potentially decisive voting bloc. </p>
<p>The mom rhetoric may be real, but as a political scientist, I can say confidently that the framers of the Constitution would not endorse this brand of liberty. Book bans are weapons of autocrats, and democracy ends where political figures call each other “pedophiles” in public.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210740/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shauna Shames does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Moms for Liberty, founded in 2021 and now boasting 120,000 members, could ride its conservative, limited-government message to a position of strong influence in the GOP.Shauna Shames, Associate Professor of Political Science, Rutgers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2084452023-07-04T17:20:55Z2023-07-04T17:20:55ZMove over, Danielle Smith: What Canadians should know about New Brunswick’s Blaine Higgs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535394/original/file-20230703-289887-piiz0d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6016%2C4016&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs speaks to the media outside Government House in Fredericton, N.B., following a cabinet shuffle in June 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Stephen MacGillivray</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/move-over-danielle-smith-what-canadians-should-know-about-new-brunswicks-blaine-higgs" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Though he lacks Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s showmanship, New Brunswick’s Blaine Higgs has a hard-line conservative record to make right-wing ideologues giddy. </p>
<p>Unlike some of its previous initiatives, the New Brunswick government’s <a href="https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/incredibly-vague-and-shoddy-n-b-child-and-youth-advocate-slams-policy-713-changes-1.6437771">Policy 713 — an education directive on sexual orientation and gender identity</a> — has put Higgs on the national radar.</p>
<p>Using the language of “parental rights,” the policy now requires parental consent for any name and pronoun changes for students under 16. It also removes language protecting gender identity in sports. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-brunswicks-lgbtq-safe-schools-debate-makes-false-opponents-of-parents-and-teachers-207600">New Brunswick’s LGBTQ+ safe schools debate makes false opponents of parents and teachers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In response to the changes, six members of the 29-member Conservative caucus voiced their frustrations, including four cabinet members. Since then, two ministers have resigned while others have been <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-713-cabinet-shuffle-1.6889665">shuffled out of caucus</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1673700950689587202"}"></div></p>
<h2>Grievance conservatism</h2>
<p>But this parental rights advocacy is only the latest in a series of right-wing policies in New Brunswick.</p>
<p>Despite relatively low popular vote support in the past two provincial elections, Higgs has unapologetically governed from the right since 2018.</p>
<p>Some of his actions are conventional. <a href="https://www.taxpayer.com/newsroom/higgs-can-lead-the-country-toward-a-new-era-of-tax-relief">Higgs lowered taxes for top income earners, ran surpluses and minimized increases to education and health care</a>. He has a contentious relationship with labour and has <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-higgs-culture-shift-economy-growth-1.5597576">criticized workers</a> for a weak work ethic. </p>
<p>However, Higgs has gone further than his Conservative counterparts in the region. In doing so, he has burned many bridges.</p>
<p>His relationship with the health-care sector is fraught. Emergency rooms have overflowed at times with <a href="https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/n-b-won-t-share-circumstances-recommendations-from-multiple-er-waiting-room-deaths-1.6195307">residents dying in waiting rooms</a>. </p>
<p>When it was reported a woman was unable to get access to a rape kit, Higgs blamed the nurses for <a href="https://halifax.citynews.ca/2022/09/16/sexual-assault-nurse-says-nb-premiers-comments-are-a-slap-in-the-face-5832014/">“showing a lack of compassion.”</a> He has also <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7915697/n-b-abortion-access-responsibility-debate/">limited abortion access</a> within the province.</p>
<p>Higgs has an equally contentious relationship with Indigenous Peoples. In 2021, New Brunswick directed government employees to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/10/15/theyre-gagging-people-new-brunswick-orders-halt-to-indigenous-land-acknowledgments-and-faces-a-national-backlash.html">halt territorial acknowledgements</a> because the province is involved in a series of legal actions and land claims initiated by First Nations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-brunswick-ban-on-land-acknowledgements-is-a-death-blow-to-nation-to-nation-relationships-170257">New Brunswick ban on land acknowledgements is a death blow to nation-to-nation relationships</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The province also tore up tax-sharing agreements with the Wolastoqey Nation, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/department-of-finance-blaine-higgs-1.5985206">which Higgs argued were “unfair.”</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man and a woman in masks stand on either side of an Indigenous chief, also in a mask." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535398/original/file-20230703-274515-sljzpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535398/original/file-20230703-274515-sljzpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535398/original/file-20230703-274515-sljzpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535398/original/file-20230703-274515-sljzpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535398/original/file-20230703-274515-sljzpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535398/original/file-20230703-274515-sljzpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535398/original/file-20230703-274515-sljzpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Higgs, left, and New Brunswick Aboriginal Affairs Minister Arlene Dunn, right, speak with Chief Alan Polchies Jr. of St. Mary’s First Nation after raising flags as part of National Indigenous Peoples Day in Fredericton, N.B., in June 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Stephen MacGillivray</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Proudly unilingual</h2>
<p>Higgs’s relationship with New Brunswick’s Acadian francophone population may be his worst. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/eight-things-you-need-to-know-about-blaine-higgs-1.4897225">He once ran for the leadership of the Confederation of Regions party</a> — an anglophone-rights party.</p>
<p>Higgs does not speak French and has made little effort to learn it, and has depicted himself as a <a href="https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/new-brunswick-premier-says-being-unilingual-in-a-bilingual-province-makes-him-a-target-1.6193644">“target”</a> for being unilingual.</p>
<p>Higgs started his premiership in 2018 <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/bilingual-hiring-paramedics-ambulances-higgs-flemming-1.4951225">by loosening bilingual hiring requirements for paramedic positions</a>, paving the way for unilingual workers in designated anglophone areas.</p>
<p>Recently, the government attempted to “innovate” French immersion by establishing one program with reduced French content. Conservatives <a href="https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/nb-premier-calls-public-consultations-on-french-immersion-a-shouting-session-1.6283445">argued that French immersion was two-tiered</a> and disadvantaged <a href="https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/corporate/promo/evolving-french-language-learning.html">English Prime</a> students who receive mostly English instruction.</p>
<p>After tremendous pushback from parents and teachers, which Higgs referred to as <a href="https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/nb-premier-calls-public-consultations-on-french-immersion-a-shouting-session-1.6283445">“a shouting session,”</a> the government walked back its plans.</p>
<p>The policy nonetheless led to the resignation of Education Minister Dominic Cardy. In a widely circulated letter, Cardy called out Higgs for his <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/cardy-resigns-as-education-minister-1.6615083">“micromanagement.”</a></p>
<p>Some argue Higgs <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-new-brunswick-premier-blaine-higgs-leverages-covid-honeymoon-into/">moved to the centre during the province’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic</a>. But his early support for vaccinations and lockdown measures didn’t reflect his subsequent efforts. New Brunswick re-opened early and stopped reporting weekly case numbers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sandy-haired man in a suit stands behind a podium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535397/original/file-20230703-253876-zd4b8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535397/original/file-20230703-253876-zd4b8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535397/original/file-20230703-253876-zd4b8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535397/original/file-20230703-253876-zd4b8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535397/original/file-20230703-253876-zd4b8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535397/original/file-20230703-253876-zd4b8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535397/original/file-20230703-253876-zd4b8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dominic Cardy, New Brunswick’s education minister at the time, releases the province’s back to school plan in August 2021 amid the COVID-19 pandemic. He later resigned over tensions with Higgs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Kevin Bissett</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Will Higgs win again?</h2>
<p>With reports of a leadership review and tensions within his party, an early election is possible. </p>
<p>Though some pollsters <a href="https://narrativeresearch.ca/nb-the-pcs-and-liberals-remain-neck-in-neck-in-terms-of-voting-intentions-with-the-liberal-party-leader-most-preferred-as-premier/">report Higgs is either tied with the New Brunswick Liberals</a> or trailing them, he still has a pathway to victory.</p>
<p>Higgs won in 2018 and 2020 <a href="https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/new-brunswickers-facing-yet-another-linguistic-divide-after-tory-majority-win-1.5106405">by capitalizing on New Brunswick’s linguistic divide</a>. Losing francophone ridings by massive pluralities doesn’t matter because he carried the more plentiful, mostly anglophone ridings.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.utpjournals.press/doi/abs/10.3138/jcs.36.4.32">Academics have observed</a> New Brunswick’s political behaviour tends to follow a diagonal line drawn from Moncton to Grand Falls. Historically, Liberal-Conservative divisions have matched this alignment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map shows voting tendencies in New Brunswick." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534732/original/file-20230629-21-q65rjj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534732/original/file-20230629-21-q65rjj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534732/original/file-20230629-21-q65rjj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534732/original/file-20230629-21-q65rjj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534732/original/file-20230629-21-q65rjj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534732/original/file-20230629-21-q65rjj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534732/original/file-20230629-21-q65rjj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New Brunswick 2020 election results with dividing line. Modified map originally from Elections NB.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Elections New Brunswick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This began to change in the 1970s, but has re-emerged as a political strategy. Higgs knows the game and has won twice by playing it.</p>
<p>Higgs practises grievance politics that is as divisive as it is successful. His calculations involve mobilizing a coalition big enough to win but small enough to remain ideologically pure.</p>
<p>He does this through picking issues that, while unpopular broadly, motivate voters within his coalition. Policy 713 is an example: the frustrated voters who cast ballots solely as a form of protest to this issue are few and far between, and unlikely to vote Conservative anyway.</p>
<p>This game is not Higgs’s invention — it’s the new Canadian conservatism. Federal Conservative Leader <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-campaign-freedom-anit-otoole-1.6577412">Pierre Poilievre</a> and Alberta’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/opinion-danielle-smith-populism-playbook-1.6617059">Danielle Smith use the same strategy</a>. Both have platforms that voice suspicions of government, evident during their campaigns for “freedom” during COVID-19 protocols. </p>
<p>Yet Higgs is a more serious threat. He pursues a hard-right agenda without scrutiny. He has imposed his agenda on a centrist province with barely any national media attention.</p>
<p>To his credit, Higgs does not hide who he is. He is open with media and speaks his mind. Canadians — not just New Brunswickers — would be wise to listen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208445/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noah Fry is supported in part by funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p>New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs is pursuing a hard-right agenda without much scrutiny. He has imposed his agenda on a centrist province with barely any national media attention.Noah Fry, PhD Candidate, Political Science, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071222023-07-03T20:07:23Z2023-07-03T20:07:23ZWhy ‘wokeness’ has become the latest battlefront for white conservatives in America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535218/original/file-20230703-242354-ziw4ih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=108%2C0%2C5014%2C3430&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Raoux/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The day he <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/24/ron-desantis-announces-2024-presidential-bid">launched his bid</a> for the Republican nomination for the 2024 US presidential election, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis warned Fox News viewers “the woke mind virus is basically a form of cultural Marxism.” </p>
<p>With his trademark subtlety, DeSantis was pitching himself to the Republican base that still supports Donald Trump, the current front-runner for the nomination. </p>
<p>For those in the know, it was a signal. With a President DeSantis, there would be no more critical race theory. There would be fewer protections for LGBTQIA+ people. And there would be no more troubling ambiguity in textbooks or any suggestion the United States is anything other than the greatest country on earth, and always has been, and is going to be made great again. Or even greater. </p>
<p>Welcome to the “War on Woke”. </p>
<p>On Fox, DeSantis was trying to claim that he, not Trump, is the leading general in this war. But he is far from alone. Across the country, Republican-led state legislatures are unleashing a tidal wave of laws intended to enforce white conservative mores on the broader population. </p>
<p>The “war on woke” has involved brazen attacks on <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy/23762357/republican-attack-higher-education">academic freedom</a> in universities and schools; on the rights of transgender people, particularly children, to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/05/17/1176600711/republicans-in-several-states-push-for-limits-on-gender-affirming-care-for-adult">gender-affirming health care</a>; and on any person, group or business deemed too liberal – even <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/business/disney-ron-desantis-florida.html">Mickey Mouse</a>.</p>
<p>These shifting battlefronts are underpinned by a concerted effort to erase any form of American history that considers the racism and inequity of the country’s past and present. The teaching of “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/551977-gop-legislatures-target-critical-race-theory/">critical race theory</a>” is being banned in many states, “divisive concepts” are no longer allowed in school curricula and any history that explores inequality is being expunged from school textbooks.</p>
<p>Though it may seem it, this war on woke is not new.</p>
<p>In the 1950s, William Faulkner, the American novelist whose Southern Gothic fiction was haunted by the legacy of slavery, wrote: “The past is never dead. It’s not even past.” Zealous conservatives have banned Faulkner’s books from school curricula on multiple occasions for <a href="https://www.ala.org/advocacy/bbooks/frequentlychallengedbooks/classics#:%7E:text=As%20I%20Lay%20Dying%2C%20by%20William%20Faulkner&text=Two%20school%20board%20members%20were,questions%20the%20existence%20of%20God.">obscenity and blasphemy</a>.</p>
<p>Today’s “war” is part of a much longer fight - one that has dominated America’s past, and continues to shape the possibilities of its future. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1380274295591567363"}"></div></p>
<h2>What is the “war on woke”?</h2>
<p>In Iowa last month, Trump <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4031584-trump-iowa-dislikes-term-woke/">lamented</a> the constant repetition of “woke, woke, woke,” complaining that “it’s just a term they use. Half the people can’t define it; they don’t know what it is.”</p>
<p>As he so often does, Trump inadvertently highlighted the confounding and contradictory nature of American politics today.</p>
<p>The term “woke” can be either an insult or a marker of pride – it can shift depending on the context. Both those broadly aligned with “woke” aims and those in bitter opposition to them appear to find it equally difficult to define the term.</p>
<p>As the journalist and author Michael Harriot has explained, the term “woke” emerged from the African American maxim “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/20/anti-woke-race-america-history">stay woke</a>”. That is, a call to stay aware of the lived reality of racism in the United States. More recently, the meaning has drifted and now signifies broad commitment to social justice awareness and activism. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1603196222336016386"}"></div></p>
<p>It’s not surprising it has drawn the opprobrium of a conservative right that is obsessed with entrenching its moral coda as not just the dominant ethic, but the law of the land. </p>
<p>So how do conservatives define “wokeness” and articulate the terms of their opposition? The simple answer is they don’t. Many conservatives instead compare “wokeness” with a sickness, which is a way of associating those seeking to ameliorate social injustices with degradation, decay and moral turpitude. </p>
<p>The slippery nature of the term “woke” is useful to those wishing to prosecute a war against anything that strays outside the rigid confines of conservative ideology. Its adaptability and malleability are crucial to its pervasiveness.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1671858190298894339"}"></div></p>
<h2>From civil war to civil rights</h2>
<p>But this is hardly the first time in American history that states have passed regressive laws seeking to wind back social gains made at the federal level. </p>
<p>The United States has <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/america-civil-war-prophecies/620850/">never been one country</a>. The dispersed, state-level battlefronts of the “war on woke” reflect this historical reality. </p>
<p>The country was born as an uneasy alliance of settler-colonies based on imperial expansion and dispossession. The white establishment in both the north and south benefited from slavery, but there was a crucial difference: the south’s entire economic foundation and social structure was built on it. The north’s was not. </p>
<p>This created a fundamental tension between the two social systems that in the mid-19th century erupted into outright conflict. </p>
<p>Depicting themselves as the victims of northern aggression, white southerners insisted they were simply seeking to protect their way of life. This meant not just the maintenance, but the expansion, of slavery. </p>
<p>The “carpetbaggers” from the north, meanwhile, were imposing an unjust and unwanted way of life on the south. This was a cultural construction that would endure long after the Civil War. </p>
<p>After losing the war, white southern leaders found new ways to assert power, through <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/freedom-riders-jim-crow-laws/">Jim Crow</a> laws and the continued brutal oppression of African Americans and other racial minorities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535229/original/file-20230703-264305-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535229/original/file-20230703-264305-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535229/original/file-20230703-264305-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535229/original/file-20230703-264305-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535229/original/file-20230703-264305-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535229/original/file-20230703-264305-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535229/original/file-20230703-264305-azdorj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jim Crow laws enforced racial segregation in many aspects of daily life in the South.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the 1960s, the civil rights movement began to challenge these discriminatory laws. The backlash was swift. And it was, again, about a white minority population seeking to utilise the unequal mechanisms of the American constitutional order to maintain their authority. </p>
<p>Loudly proclaiming “states rights”, they inveighed against the white northern elite once again interfering, so they alleged, with their way of life.</p>
<p>Conservatism was cohering into a new social movement, premised on the rejection of the advances of the civil rights movement. Its adherents despised all those they perceived as a threat to the social order they sought to (re)create: mobilised Black Americans, feminists, lesbians and gays, migrants and anybody else who could be broadly described as “liberal”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-american-right-has-gone-to-war-with-woke-capitalism-heres-what-they-get-wrong-200580">The American right has gone to war with 'woke capitalism' – here's what they get wrong</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A new social movement is born</h2>
<p>In a 1964 speech supporting the presidential campaign of Republican Barry Goldwater, Ronald Reagan, a rising star in the Republican Party <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-behalf-senator-barry-goldwater-time-for-choosing">gave voice</a> to this emerging politics:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is the issue of this election: Whether we believe in our capacity for self-government or whether we abandon the American revolution and confess that a little intellectual elite in a far-distant capital can plan our lives for us better than we can plan them ourselves.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qXBswFfh6AY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Ronald Reagan’s ‘A Time for Choosing’ speech from 1964.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Generations of free marketers proudly repeat Reagan’s words. What they neglect to mention is this was not a simple appeal for hearty and virtuous Americans to draw on their own resources and dictate their destinies, rather than rely on ineffective government bureaucracy. </p>
<p>In the climate of the civil rights movement, it was a repetition of the racially coded southern call to assert the right to local self-government over interference from the central government, which was daring to support aspirations for genuine racial equality. </p>
<p>This was the culture war of the time. Conservatives mobilised in presidential campaigns, in student groups such as the Young Americans for Freedom, and in more insidious places, such as the John Birch Society and the Ku Klux Klan. </p>
<p>Most significant of all was the mobilisation in churches, as a new, white, Christian evangelical movement <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/05/abortion-opposition-focus-white-evangelical-anger">discovered and embraced its power</a>.</p>
<p>Reagan sought to identify himself with this conservative social mobilisation sweeping the country, against the Republican establishment of the day. The tactic elevated him to the governorship of California and later, the White House.</p>
<p>This right-wing mobilisation included a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/west-virginia-textbook-battle-gop-blue-collar">forceful campaign</a> against educational materials provided by the government to school students that sought to capture the complexities of American history. </p>
<p>Conservative Christians also campaigned against depictions of Black oppression and assertions of non-white culture, sex education and anything that might challenge their carefully prescribed social coda. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/evangelical-christians-are-crucial-voters-in-republican-primaries-would-they-support-desantis-or-trump-194914">Evangelical Christians are crucial voters in Republican primaries. Would they support DeSantis or Trump?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The past is never dead</h2>
<p>The “war on woke” is the most recent incarnation of this ongoing culture war.</p>
<p>The war on woke is a means of mobilisation, but also of cultural definition. By being against “wokeness”, this movement is able to construct a coherence it otherwise lacks. Devoid of a clear vision of what it stands for, this mobilisation (like other right-wing movements before it) is focused on opposition.</p>
<p>The starting point of this mobilisation is, and has always been, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/10/the-first-white-president-ta-nehisi-coates/537909/">race</a>. The white supremacist “<a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-is-great-replacement-theory-and-how-does-it-fuel-racist-violence">Great Replacement Theory</a>” posits that non-white populations are replacing whites through migration and demographic changes. Once a fringe conspiracy theory, it is now being openly <a href="https://www.adl.org/resources/blog/deplatform-tucker-carlson-and-great-replacement-theory">espoused on Fox News</a>.</p>
<p>Electoral laws are also being passed to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/17/florida-republicans-black-voters-justice-department">disenfranchise Black voters</a>, and <a href="https://www.facingsouth.org/2022/01/institute-index-gop-bans-teaching-about-racism-drive-out-educators">bans are being placed</a> on teaching the history of how southern states maintained white power through systems of racial disenfranchisement.</p>
<p>Trump and DeSantis are now fuelling and feeding off this agenda as they seek to build their political careers. But they can only do so because there is a large existing social constituency for such actions, built on generations of opposition to progressive social gains. </p>
<p>The past is never dead. It’s not even past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Shortis is a member of the Independent and Peaceful Australia Network (IPAN).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liam Byrne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a ‘war on woke’ in his bid for the Republican nomination for president. He’s not the first – or the last – conservative to take on progressive values.Emma Shortis, Lecturer in Social and Global Studies, RMIT UniversityLiam Byrne, Honorary Fellow, School of Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2080532023-06-28T16:56:12Z2023-06-28T16:56:12ZPoliticians believe voters to be more conservative than they really are<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534112/original/file-20230626-19-k2azps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C7360%2C4891&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Could this be what politicians have in mind when they invoke the "hardworking family"? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/fr/image-photo/happy-parents-sitting-on-sofa-looking-1056238637">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/26/far-right-afd-wins-local-election-watershed-moment-german-politics">district council election for the first time</a> on Monday. Robert Sesselmann’s victory as district administrator – the equivalent of a mayor – in the Eastern town of Sonneberg comes only a day after Greece’s conservatives clinched an outright majority in the country’s parliamentary polls, topping left-wing parties Syriza and Pasok. Meanwhile, the Spanish left is also bracing for an early general election on 23 July, after losing to the Spanish conservative Partido Popular (PP) and far-right Vox parties in May.</p>
<p>Such developments might send a signal to European politicians to lean further to the right in a scramble to save votes. Yet our latest research, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/do-politicians-outside-the-united-states-also-think-voters-are-more-conservative-than-they-really-are/D21A9077EE2435F2B910394378E96450">published this month</a>, shows that politicians’ perceptions may not actually reflect voters’ true interests and opinions. Worse still: it appears to be an error that many other politicians have already made.</p>
<h2>866 officials surveyed</h2>
<p>In an influential 2018 study, David Broockman and Christopher Skovron <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/bias-in-perceptions-of-public-opinion-among-political-elites/2EF080E04D3AAE6AC1C894F52642E706">showed</a> that US politicians overestimated the share of citizens who held conservative views. On questions related to state intervention in the economy, gun control, immigration, or abortion, the majority of both Republicans and Democratic representatives surveyed believed that a greater share of citizens supported right-wing policies than what public-opinion data revealed.</p>
<p>We were curious whether conservative bias in politicians’ perceptions of public opinion was limited to American politics or was a broader phenomenon. To explore this, we interviewed 866 politicians in four democracies that whose political systems differ from each other and from that of the United States: Belgium, Canada, Germany and Switzerland. The politicians interviewed spanned the full political spectrum, including politicians from the radical right (Vlaams Belang, SVP/UDC), moderate centre-right (CDU/CSU, Conservative Party of Canada), centre-left parties (SPD, PS, SP.a-Vooruit) and radical left (PTB, Die Linke).</p>
<p>Participating officials, who included members of national and subnational (provinces, cantons, regions, Länders) legislative bodies, were asked to evaluate where general public opinion (but also that of their party voters) stood on a range of issues: pension age, redistribution, workers’ rights, euthanasia, child adoption by same-sex couples and immigration. We then compared their answers with public opinion data that we evaluated using large-scale representative surveys that we fielded in the four countries at the same time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our findings are clear and straightforward. In all four countries, and on a majority of issues, politicians consistently overestimate the share of citizens who hold right-wing views. Figure 1 reports the average gap between politicians’ perceptions of general public opinion and citizens’ actual opinions (circles), and the gap between their estimation of their party’s electorate opinion and the observed opinion within that electorate (triangles). These estimates are reported for each issue domain and each country we studied. Both measures reveal a substantial and largely consistent conservative bias in politicians’ perceptions – both for the overall public and party electorates. Importantly, politicians’ overestimation of how many citizens hold right-wing views is consistent across the ideological spectrum. Politicians hold a conservative bias regardless of whether they represent left- or right-wing parties.</p>
<p>While the overall pattern is remarkably stable, we also uncovered important variation across issue domains. For example, citizens are much less in favour of raising the pension age than politicians think. There were also differences between countries, such as a smaller conservative bias in Wallonia (Belgium). But the global picture is clear: the overwhelming majority of politicians we studied (81%) believe that the public holds more conservative views than is the case. </p>
<p>The only exception appears to be when politicians estimate public opinion on immigration-related policies. When asked about issues such as family reunion, asylum or border control, there is also a misperception of public opinion among politicians but not always in the conservative direction. Politicians in Belgium (both Flanders and Wallonia) and in Switzerland have a conservative bias on such issues, but in Canada and Germany, there is a large <em>liberal</em> bias in politicians’ perception of public opinion regarding immigration.</p>
<h2>The result of lobbying?</h2>
<p>The big question is <em>why</em> politicians perceive public opinion to be more right-wing than it truly is. One explanation provided by Broockman and Skovron for the United States was that right-wing activists are more visible and tend to contact their politicians more often, skewing representatives’ information environment to the right. We tested this explanation in our studied countries, but could not find evidence to support it. The right-wing citizens in our sample are not more politically active, and therefore visible, than their left-wing counterparts. Yet the idea that politicians’ information environment might be skewed to the right can find support in other work.</p>
<p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/spsr.12224">Earlier research</a> has shown that politicians tend to receive disproportionally right-skewed information from business interest groups. Social media, which politicians use more and more, also tends to be dominated <a href="https://pure.rug.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/148014700/review_Schradie.pdf">by conservative views</a>, and as politicians spend more time online, and their news media diet is growingly filtered through social media feeds that create interactions and feedback skewed to the right, their views may be accordingly distorted. It has also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305542100037X">been shown</a> that politicians tend to pay more attention to the policy preferences of more affluent and educated citizens, and those citizens vote more often and hold more often right-wing views, at least on economic issues.</p>
<p>The observed conservative bias might also be associated with what social psychologist call “pluralistic ignorance” (i.e., misperceptions of others’ opinions). When it comes to liberals, for example, social psychologists have shown that they tend to exaggerate the uniqueness of their own opinion (<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24247730/">“false uniqueness”</a>. Conservatives, by contrast, perceive their opinions as more common than they are (<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0146167214537834">“false consensus”</a>). These processes could explain why we find a conservative bias found among both liberal and conservative politicians. Finally, recent election results such the Presidential elections in France, or the recent parliamentary elections in Greece and Finland, with the growth of the radical right and the victories of right-wing conservative parties, might also have sent a signal to politicians about the conservativeness of citizens that is not necessarily in step with their actual opinions.</p>
<h2>A threat to representative democracy</h2>
<p>Irrespective of the sources of the conservative bias, the fact that it is persistently present in a variety of different democratic systems has major implications for the well-functioning of representative democracy. Representative democracy builds upon the idea that elected politicians are responsive to citizens, meaning that they by and large attempt to promote policy initiatives that are in line with people’s preferences. If politicians’ ideas of what the public thinks – let alone their own party’s voters – are systematically biased toward one ideological side, then the political representation chain is weakened. Politicians may erroneously pursue right-wing policies that do not in fact have the popular support, and may refrain from working to advance (incorrectly perceived) progressive goals. But if citizens are less conservative than what politicians perceive them to be, the supply side of policy is at risk of being consistently suboptimal and may have broader, system-wide implications such as growing disaffection with democracy and democratic institutions.The recent social unrest in France regarding raising legal pension age might be an example of a policy debate in which governments perceive public opinion leaning more to the right than it actually is.</p>
<p>The situation is not without hope, however, and access to accurate information seems to play an important role. A <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/spsr.12495">2020 study</a> in Switzerland has shown that a sustained use of direct democracy might help politicians better understand public opinion. In the same logic, a recent study of US elected officials show that they tend to misperceive support for politically motivated violence among their supporters. But when exposed to reliable and accurate information, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2116851119">they update and correct their (mis) perceptions</a>. Building on such studies, we believe that more work needs to be done both to understand the sources and prevalence of conservative bias, and to identify additional ways of offsetting it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208053/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean-Benoit Pilet has received research grants from the European Research Council (ERC) and the Belgian National Fondation for Scientific Research (FNRS) </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lior Sheffer has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).</span></em></p>A survey of nearly 900 politicians in Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Canada reveals that they systematically overestimate their electorate’s conservatism on a range of issues.Jean-Benoit Pilet, Professeur de Science Politique, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)Lior Sheffer, Assistant professor in political science, Tel Aviv UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1920122022-10-13T19:21:29Z2022-10-13T19:21:29ZThe Right Stuff: the new conservative dating app which has unsurprisingly, failed to attract women<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489465/original/file-20221012-17-677ljh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=19%2C0%2C6612%2C3062&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Austin Distel/Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.daterightstuff.com/optin-565025161664468347967">The Right Stuff</a> is a new conservative dating app, recently launched in the US. Not yet available in Australia, the app was apparently created “for conservatives to connect in authentic and meaningful ways.” </p>
<p>It offers to bring people together with shared values and similar passions, ensuring users “view profiles without pronouns” and are able to “connect with people who aren’t offended by everything”.</p>
<p>As you might anticipate, the app has drawn immediate, and controversial attention, for a variety of reasons. Firstly, and importantly, there appears to be an absence of <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/women-turned-off-by-billionaire-peter-thiels-conservative-dating-app-the-right-stuff">female users</a>. Problematic, given the app only caters for an heterosexual audience.</p>
<p>Secondly, the app was co-founded by former Trump aide <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/02/15/peter-thiel-conservative-dating-app-the-rightstuff">John McEntee</a>. Ryann McEnany, the sister of the former White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany, is the <a href="https://www.outfrontmagazine.com/conservative-dating-app-the-right-stuff-gives-new-meaning-to-swiping-right/">app’s spokesperson</a>. Finally, the app is financially backed by right-wing billionaire and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/14/technology/republican-trump-peter-thiel.html">PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TugyeJTwHS4">ads</a> for the app have also attracted a level of derision from audiences. Featuring an all-female cast, women are asked “What they’re looking for in a man?”</p>
<p>They respond they are looking for an “alpha male vibe”, an independent man, a man who is family-orientated.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TugyeJTwHS4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>When women in the video were asked what their “biggest red flag” in their potential partners was. They all replied they couldn’t be with a Democrat.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-exclusive-dating-app-for-celebrities-and-influencers-why-raya-has-been-called-the-illuminati-of-the-tinder-world-186828">The exclusive dating app for celebrities and influencers – why Raya has been called 'the Illuminati of the Tinder world'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Politics and dating apps</h2>
<p>This isn’t the first dating app to intersect tech, dating, intimacy and politics. </p>
<p>In 2016, Bumble launched its political digital “bumper stickers”, which featured Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Ted Cruz and, of course, Trump. These were later updated, replaced by iterations reflecting the political times. </p>
<p>In America, the app currently allows you to share whether or not you have voted in the mid-term elections. Whitey Wolfe Herd, creator and CEO of Bumble, <a href="https://mashable.com/article/bumble-political-filters">has said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Political views are more than just current topics, sometimes entire value sets can be tied to political views. It tells you a lot about a person.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In 2020, OkCupid launched its “<a href="https://theblog.okcupid.com/voters-make-better-lovers-8e0f1c5881fd">Voters Make Better Lovers</a>” campaign in advance of the presidential election.</p>
<p>In a press release, the company said “practising your right to vote is the biggest turn-on to OkCupid singles today”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/high-maintenance-is-a-red-flag-on-dating-apps-women-are-still-expected-to-shrink-themselves-180113">'High maintenance' is a red flag on dating apps. Women are still expected to shrink themselves</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Shared values</h2>
<p>Speaking to the Slow Love podcast in 2020, OkCupid’s then chief marketing officer, Melissa Hobley, said users on the app <a href="https://music.amazon.ca/podcasts/6da96ad8-2ba7-43d6-b6fc-9815e6272d75/episodes/2c95eb17-2db8-45f4-99e8-988c69674304/slow-love-slow-love-ep-11-melissa-hobley---okcupid">were increasingly</a> making match-decisions based on shared values, with political inclinations and climate philosophies ranking highly in the mix.</p>
<p>In my research into dating apps and intimacy, I have found women would quickly ghost matches who made racist, sexist or overly sexualised statements in chat or on their profile.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489469/original/file-20221012-13-ym4nec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man on a phone" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489469/original/file-20221012-13-ym4nec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489469/original/file-20221012-13-ym4nec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489469/original/file-20221012-13-ym4nec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489469/original/file-20221012-13-ym4nec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489469/original/file-20221012-13-ym4nec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489469/original/file-20221012-13-ym4nec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489469/original/file-20221012-13-ym4nec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Women quickly ghost matches who made racist, sexist or overly sexualised statements.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dane Deaner/Unsplash</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>User reviews and <a href="https://gizmodo.com/the-right-stuff-asks-for-details-about-january-6th-1849620087">media reports</a> have overwhelmingly indicated a lack of women on The Right Stuff. (This has not yet been corroborated by the Right Stuff spokespeople.) </p>
<p>Take this <a href="https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/lifestyle/conservatives-only-dating-app-hit-with-hilariously-scathing-reviews-336550/">user complaint</a> for example: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>These days, it’s hard to find a woman who values my patriotism. My faith. And so after being ghosted by every match on Tinder, I decided to give this app a try. […] But the weird thing was, I couldn’t find any women on it. I don’t know, maybe the app is bugged?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Dating apps are not merely a platform for personal relationships. As Lik Sam Chan, assistant professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, explores in his research, apps are an <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262542340/the-politics-of-dating-apps/">emerging arena</a> for gender and politics. These spaces can provide opportunities for women’s empowerment and men’s performances of masculinity.</p>
<p>Similarly, Australian academic Martin Nakata <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/australian-journal-of-indigenous-education/article/abs/cultural-interface/B8321A596C2BFF62FA6B81E7F214BC38">argues</a> online spaces – such as dating apps – can be understood as digitally mediated “sites of struggle over the meaning of [our] experience”. </p>
<p>Dating apps constitute relatively new sites of culturally and politically mediated encounter. They are emerging as the new digital interface for gender and political negotiation.</p>
<p>Certainly, the launch of the Right Stuff tends to suggest the importance of political orientation for women looking to date – and reveals that right wing values are indeed viewed as “the wrong stuff” for many American women.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-for-love-on-a-dating-app-you-might-be-falling-for-a-ghost-128626">Looking for love on a dating app? You might be falling for a ghost</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Portolan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This isn’t the first dating app to intersect tech, dating, intimacy and politics.Lisa Portolan, PhD student, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1884912022-08-29T18:21:28Z2022-08-29T18:21:28ZThe U.S. Supreme Court failed to uphold American ideals of liberty and equality in abortion ruling<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480458/original/file-20220822-65891-e50v65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Abortion-rights activists gather outside the Supreme Court in Washington, D.C., in June 2022 after the court ended constitutional protections for abortion that had been in place nearly 50 years.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nearly two months have passed since the Supreme Court of the United States returned its judgment in <em>Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization</em> — the now infamous decision <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ussc-dobbs-abortion-ruling-1.6495637">that reversed half a century of established law</a> on a woman’s right to abortion.</p>
<p>The majority opinion in <em>Dobbs</em> is <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/the-supreme-courts-wrong-turn-on-constitutional-rights">rife with contradictions and questionable legal reasoning</a>. The <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/how-we-rise/2022/06/30/dobbs-another-frontline-for-health-equity/">material harm that many women will suffer as a consequence</a> is undeniable. </p>
<p>But from a constitutional perspective, the theory the court used to arrive at its judgment poses the gravest danger. </p>
<h2>Originalism vs living constitutionalism</h2>
<p>Constitutional scholars have long been charting <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/magazine/how-will-trumps-supreme-court-remake-america.html">the Supreme Court’s transition away from a living reading of the U.S. Constitution toward an originalist one</a>.</p>
<p>Those who subscribe to an <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/white-papers/on-originalism-in-constitutional-interpretation">originalist reading of the Constitution</a> believe that courts act illegitimately wherever they try to creatively apply its provisions to modern times. Since it would be undemocratic for an unelected judiciary to “invent” the law, courts must limit themselves to the retrieval of constitutional principles from the text of the Constitution itself.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-originalism-debunking-the-myths-148488">What is originalism? Debunking the myths</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://dlj.law.duke.edu/2017/06/living-constitutional-theory/">Living constitution theorists</a> defend the opposite perspective. Since much of the U.S. Constitution was written more than 200 years ago, they argue that binding the current generation to the intentions of its drafters not only undermines the sovereignty of the people living today but impedes any progress the nation has made throughout its history.</p>
<p>It’s along these fault lines that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/24/us/politics/supreme-court-dobbs-jackson-analysis-roe-wade.html">the majority and dissenting opinions in <em>Dobbs</em> took shape</a>.</p>
<p>According to the majority of Supreme Court justices, “constitutional analysis must begin with ‘the language of the instrument,’ which offers a ‘fixed standard’ for ascertaining what our founding document means.” And because “the Constitution makes no reference to abortion,” they argued, any claim that the document confers a right to it must be rejected.</p>
<p>The dissenting justices took the opposite tack. They acknowledged that “those responsible for the original Constitution… did not perceive women as equals, and [therefore] did not recognize women’s rights” — but added that this alone doesn’t invalidate the constitutionality of a right to abortion. The right to abortion, they argued, is a product of the country’s constitutional history.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman protester carries a sign that reads Our Rights Are Not Up For Debate" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480457/original/file-20220822-66616-m1t183.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480457/original/file-20220822-66616-m1t183.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480457/original/file-20220822-66616-m1t183.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480457/original/file-20220822-66616-m1t183.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480457/original/file-20220822-66616-m1t183.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480457/original/file-20220822-66616-m1t183.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480457/original/file-20220822-66616-m1t183.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abortion-rights protesters march on Capitol Hill, with the U.S. Capitol in the background, after protesting at the Supreme Court in June 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How rights develop over time</h2>
<p>Originalists have a point on one front — it would be illegitimate for a court to simply concoct a right out of thin air. But to suggest this is what courts do when they interpret a country’s constitution misrepresents how rights develop over time.</p>
<p>Constitutions are not made up of a random collection of rules. They have integrity. Ideally, the different parts of a constitution will work to reinforce its other parts, rendering a complete vision that a nation can consult as it charts a course into the future.</p>
<p>From the start, <a href="https://billofrightsinstitute.org/essays/liberty-and-equality-today">the U.S. Constitution was organized around two core principles: liberty and equality</a>. These represented the defining ideals for the country. From these ideals, certain commitments followed. </p>
<p>Consider the 1954 Supreme Court decision on <em><a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/brown-v-board-of-education">Brown v. Board of Education</a></em> to reverse an earlier judgment affirming <a href="https://www.aclu.org/other/aclu-history-beginning-end-separate-equal">the constitutionality of the separate-but-equal doctrine</a> — the legal mechanism that segregated white and Black schoolchildren in many parts of the United States throughout the first half of the 20th century. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People stand in front of a court building holding banners that pay tribute to the 60th anniversary of a landmark court decision." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480459/original/file-20220822-77906-e3lzru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480459/original/file-20220822-77906-e3lzru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480459/original/file-20220822-77906-e3lzru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480459/original/file-20220822-77906-e3lzru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480459/original/file-20220822-77906-e3lzru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480459/original/file-20220822-77906-e3lzru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480459/original/file-20220822-77906-e3lzru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this 2014 photo, students, parents and educators are seen at a rally at the Supreme Court on the 60th anniversary of the Brown v. Board of Education decision that struck down ‘separate but equal’ laws that kept schools segregated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The reasoning the court used in the Brown decision didn’t revolve around the moral wickedness of the doctrine itself — though wicked it surely was. Instead it focused on the constitutional commitments the United States had acquired over time. </p>
<p>In essence, the court explained that the nation could not simultaneously tolerate the separate-but-equal treatment of a certain section of its population while maintaining a commitment to the principle of equality. The two things were irreconcilable.</p>
<p>The constitutional commitments of a nation ensure rights once unrecognized can become recognized at a particular moment in time. Through the piecemeal advances that are made in any area of law, a country’s constitutional commitments are revealed and evolve. The role of Supreme Courts is merely to ensure those commitments are reflected in the laws by which people are governed.</p>
<h2><em>Dobbs</em> dissent</h2>
<p>From a constitutional perspective, the dissenting justices in <em>Dobbs</em> were correct.</p>
<p>Not only is the right to abortion a recognized right in the U.S. Constitution, it is deeply embedded in its fabric. To deny a woman the right to choose in an area so intimate to her, concerning a choice that carries such profound consequences over her life, is to deny her status as a free and equal person. Nothing could be further from the core constitutional commitments of the United States. </p>
<p>A country that turns its back on these commitments — liberty and equality, in the case of the United States — is at risk of losing its vision. And without a vision, even the most basic terms of the social contract begin to dissolve.</p>
<p>The constitutional legacy of <em>Dobbs</em> is that it has brought America one step closer to this kind of social collapse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188491/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoff Callaghan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The U.S. Supreme Court turned its back on America’s core constitutional ideals — liberty and equality— when it erroneously ruled women have no constitutional right to abortion.Geoff Callaghan, Assistant Professor, Political Science, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1888162022-08-19T01:01:25Z2022-08-19T01:01:25ZAustralian conservatism succumbs to the same radical tendency as like-minded parties abroad<p>As bad as it is, Scott Morrison’s surreptitious circumvention of Australia’s parliamentary and Cabinet processes might have got worse.</p>
<p>Had the former prime minister been re-elected, it is reasonable to assume he would have continued to mislead his Cabinet, the parliament and the public after amassing multiple reserve powers. </p>
<p>He may even have extended his undeclared reach, further weakening a gullible Cabinet that had all but surrendered its judgment to him since the so-called “miracle” election win of 2019.</p>
<p>Fronting reporters on Wednesday, Morrison provided no substantial acceptance of wrong-doing, no viable pretext for his secrecy. He also did not provide a reason for his wilful debasement of the principle of collective Cabinet decision-making.</p>
<p>Many voters will now be deeply concerned that Morrison was not dissuaded from his dangerous fantasy by the governor-general, who gave these novel arrangements his imprimatur. </p>
<p>The cost of Morrison’s excess and the governor-general’s apparent incuriosity is a sharp decline in public confidence.</p>
<p>Questions must now be asked about the durability of time-honoured Westminster conventions, as conservatism – the most successful political brand in Australia electorally speaking – succumbs to the same radical urges as like-minded parties abroad.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-multiple-portfolios-why-the-law-has-nothing-to-do-with-it-188892">Morrison's multiple portfolios: why the law has nothing to do with it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These questions go to the ease with which Morrison side-stepped usual transparency requirements, which are critical in delimiting executive power.</p>
<p>And they go to the special forms of confidence that bind ministers of the Crown to act honourably. This includes an obligation to resign when that confidence has been compromised.</p>
<p>The case of Resources Minister Keith Pitt highlights this cynical fracture. Pitt’s deliberative ministerial power was superseded by the prime minister, who had secretly acquired the joint commission for his resources portfolio.</p>
<p>This aggressive act amounted to a prime ministerial statement of no-confidence. Ordinarily, that would trigger the minister’s immediate resignation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480005/original/file-20220819-22-hu6gmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480005/original/file-20220819-22-hu6gmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480005/original/file-20220819-22-hu6gmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480005/original/file-20220819-22-hu6gmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480005/original/file-20220819-22-hu6gmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480005/original/file-20220819-22-hu6gmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480005/original/file-20220819-22-hu6gmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Morrison’s treatment of Resources Minister Keith Pitt highlights the cynical fracture of Westminster conventions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is worth noting that had Pitt then resigned, the whole issue of Morrison’s phantom cabinet would presumably have been exposed and dealt with at the time.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7865134/morrison-has-failed-the-pub-test-dismally/?cs=14230">According to</a> former Howard government minister Amanda Vanstone, knowledge of Morrison’s secret commissions would have prompted censure of the prime minister and possible dismissal.</p>
<p>Beyond the public governance failures of this bizarre controversy lie the wan political responses on the Coalition side. These we can view on the one hand as questions of ideology, and on the other as tactical matters. The latter being calculations over how to limit brand damage and avoid a difficult byelection.</p>
<p>Governing is inevitably a mix of these influences. But how they are balanced when fundamental values are at stake provides a moral health check of a government.</p>
<p>Internally, considerations range from the shallow, such as how to avoid giving the new Labor government a political boost, to deeper judgments about whether the Coalition parties should be seen to prioritise public confidence in the Constitution, the Crown and the primacy of Parliament over their own short-term popularity.</p>
<p>So far, former ministers, with the notable exception of Karen Andrews, have been loath to fully condemn Morrison’s behaviour. </p>
<p>Driven by quotidian image considerations, this spectacular misreading exposes a pervasive nihilism gripping the centre-right. </p>
<p>It reveals that mutually observed Westminster norms specifically designed to vouchsafe good-faith governance have become, like the duplicated ministries of Morrison’s phantom Cabinet, mere guidelines to be obeyed only when they do not inhibit the pursuit and retention of power.</p>
<p>For a stream of political thought quick to invoke flag and country, this breezy subjugation of the national interest to selfish political equities represents an obvious contradiction.</p>
<p>Australian conservatives are hardly unique in this regard. Across the democratic West, disregard for long-agreed ethical and procedural standards has become commonplace as hyper-partisanship and populism supplant foundational tenets of conservatism. These include honour, respect, due process and an insistence that social change should only ever be gradual.</p>
<p>Contemporary conservativism is now more clearly defined by vulgar whatever-it-takes rule-breakers such as Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Morrison, than by the principled defenders of sober governing norms such as newly disendorsed United States Republican Senator Liz Cheney and Karen Andrews.</p>
<p>Cheney was junked by her Trump-enthralled GOP this week after taking a leading role in the January 6 insurrection hearings. There she declared: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I say this to my Republican colleagues […] there will come a day when Donald Trump is gone, but your dishonour will remain.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Andrews, as one of the ministers secretly duplicated by Morrison, has so far been the only LNP frontbencher to call on Morrison to quit politics, declaring “the Australian people were betrayed”.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think the actions that he undertook in swearing himself in to numerous portfolios and not disclosing those to the ministers responsible means that he needs to resign and he needs to leave Parliament.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie has also strongly criticised Morrison’s abuse of Westminster standards, other senior Coalition figures have largely stayed mute or sought to apply narrow binaries to his behaviour.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/a1VEh4dzAgU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce essentially played down the issue. He told Radio National:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Obviously I don’t agree with the prime minister taking on roles here, there and everywhere, I believe in a cabinet system of government […] but Mr Morrison has not broken any law.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The elevation of Morrison’s former political adviser and one-time chief of staff, Phil Gaetjens, to the role of Secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet is a symptom of the tendency to put political considerations above due process.</p>
<p>Morrison’s insistence he acted on advice from his department has to be viewed in this light.</p>
<p>While it is unclear what that departmental advice stated, senior public servants, speaking on the condition of anonymity, confirm PM&C’s Governance Division would almost certainly have advised publicising any new ministerial commissions to ensure public awareness and parliamentary accountability.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-scott-morrison-horror-show-has-a-way-to-run-yet-188985">Grattan on Friday: The Scott Morrison horror show has a way to run yet</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>That this advice was either not given or not taken as authoritative is of concern.</p>
<p>Even before the scandal, The Australian’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/liberals-have-lost-the-plot-amid-global-crisis-of-the-right/news-story/987c98893cb2fccdf2b40c26479b07e3">Greg Sheridan wrote</a>, in a piece headlined “Liberals have lost the plot amid global crisis of the right”, that it had become difficult to know what the Coalition parties believed.</p>
<p>An admirably direct critic of the conservative tradition from within, Sheridan describes an “intellectual vacuum across the Australian political right”, calling it the “greatest long-term threat to the Libs and the Nats”.</p>
<p>As shocking at Morrison’s behaviour was, the reluctance of the Coalition parties to unequivocally condemn it may inflict even greater long-term damage to the conservative cause.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188816/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As shocking at Morrison’s behaviour was, it may be that the failure of the Coalition parties to clearly condemn it that inflicts the greater long-term damage.Mark Kenny, Professor, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1808192022-04-08T16:12:28Z2022-04-08T16:12:28ZBehind French election tweets, the far right is hidden in plain sight<p>During the 2017 French presidential election, Emmanuel Macron was the darling of digital democracy. With his calls for a “startup nation,” the future head of state placed technology at the centre not only of his programme but also of his <a href="https://frenchcrossroads.substack.com/p/startup-president-part-3?s=r">campaign</a>.</p>
<p>The now-president’s digital performance in the run-up to this year’s election has been much less clear-cut. It’s left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon who’s been trying to push the technological envelope, going so far as to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/06/jean-luc-melenchon-hologram-french-election">appear in the form of a hologram</a>, while Macron concentrated on shifting his programme to the right. And while he still leads in the polls, his <a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/">margin is slipping</a>. Indeed, five years after Macron took office, far-right candidates have been more effective than Macron at exploiting the Internet and social networks.</p>
<p>In the newly published book <a href="https://www.epflpress.org/produit/1047/9782889154548/l-illusion-de-la-democratie-numerique"><em>L’illusion de la démocratie numérique. Internet est-il de droite?</em></a> (EPFL Press), I argue that conservatives dominate online. While the Internet may have been a key part of left-leaning movements, such as the Arab Spring or Occupy Wall Street, the right dominates the online world thanks to factors such as its popular bases, hierarchical organisations, capital, as well as social inequality. The French presidential elections are a case in point.</p>
<h2>The French Internet: a political genealogy</h2>
<p>But before we turn to the current elections, it is worth revisiting French politics’ digital history. France is no newcomer to digital politics, with the egalitarian use of the 1980s pre-web French <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/thank-minitel-for-the-french-election/">Minitel computers for political information</a> paving the way to current global networks. Imagining the early web as a bastion of left-leaning French politics led by Macron is overly simplistic, though, as the National Front was the first political party in France to have a web presence, as well as an army of trolls working behind the scenes.</p>
<p>But it would be a mistake to view Le Pen’s support as artificial or top-down. She has been the sleeper in this current election, pulling ahead in the polls. While digital media eyes were on Zemmour, Le Pen boasts a strong base of support throughout the country, both online and offline. From Facebook groups, Twitter, down to WhatsApp channels, she dominates her rival. Despite extensive coverage in international media outlets, the former <em>Figaro</em> columnist has fewer than 400,000 Twitter followers, versus 2.7 million in the case of Le Pen.</p>
<h2>Zemmour and Le Pen</h2>
<p>Both have launched their campaigns amid a rightward turn of French politics, as voters increasingly resent the gap between their purchasing power and that of previous generations. While Zemmour and Le Pen have both clearly capitalised on such sentiments, scapegoating immigrants subtly or explicitly, there are differences between them.</p>
<p>Throughout his campaign, Zemmour has deployed an openly Islamophobic rhetoric that closely mirrored that of a <a href="http://hatemeter.eu/">research project tracking online anti-Muslim hatred</a> between 2018 and 2020. Zemmour’s movement, Reconquête (“Reconquer”) echoes the theme of a supposed “invasion” by immigrants that marked the 2016 US presidential campaign. Like former US president Donald Trump, Zemmour asserts the need to make France “great again”.</p>
<p>Le Pen also privileges imagery celebrating “traditional France”, including its agricultural heritage. Unlike Zemmour, she has confined most of her speeches to bread-and-butter issues, directly appealing to much of the working-class and rural <em>gilets jaunes</em> base. The movement started out in 2018 as a fuel-tax occupations in mostly small towns stopping traffic and morphed into a series of mostly urban marches. Once focused on cost-of-living issues, the protesters’ demands became diverse and sometimes contradictory ideologically, and the movement lost steam in late 2019 when the pandemic hit.</p>
<h2>Popular bases</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456985/original/file-20220407-21-mlmngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456985/original/file-20220407-21-mlmngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456985/original/file-20220407-21-mlmngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456985/original/file-20220407-21-mlmngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456985/original/file-20220407-21-mlmngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456985/original/file-20220407-21-mlmngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456985/original/file-20220407-21-mlmngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456985/original/file-20220407-21-mlmngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In advance of the French election, Eric Zemmour has been sinking in the polls relative to Marine Le Pen, and so has sought to dismiss them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eric Zemmour/Twitter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Too many people on the left present right-wing leaders as puppet masters and downplay the role of organised people on the ground. The fantasy is that by somehow getting rid of these leading online influencers, whether Zemmour or Le Pen, or even Putin or Trump, that the right-wing digital base will disappear.</p>
<p>The reality is in fact the opposite. These leaders built their movements on existing networks and groups. These include everything from the far-right component of the <em>gilets jaunes</em> to Civitas, Action Française, and even elements of the Catholic Church. Institutions like these are more likely to have a solid network of political supporters that are in constant communication, as well as have dedicated armies of volunteers to post and promote online content relevant to its members.</p>
<p>This finding of the role of organisations, and especially what I found in the United States in how hierarchical organisations dominated online as opposed to the myth of horizontal digital activism. Simply put, conservative groups are more likely to be hierarchical, as compared to many of those on the left, and this enables more online engagement.</p>
<h2>A media ecosystem benefiting the far right</h2>
<p>But it is not just individual groups peppered throughout France, or any other country, that enable conservative digital activism. Key to the circulation of social media information is how these groups work in sync with an ecosystem of other like-minded organisations. As in the United States, conservative media outlets are growing in France: the far-right media empire of <a href="https://www.vivendi.com/en/biography/vincent-bollore/">Vincent Bolloré</a> includes CNews, which propelled Zemmour into the nightly TV spotlight, while the media conglomerate of <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20200122-bernard-arnault-france-s-wolf-in-cashmere-billionaire">Bernard Arnault</a> pushes free-market ideas. And the content they produce and personalities they promote feed directly into conservative social-media feeds, despite – and because of – conservative claims that the media censors them.</p>
<p>By contrast, the left in France is fragmented and does not work as effectively as the far right does with all types of media outlets. This has a direct relationship with what works – and doesn’t – in terms of virality on social media. Conservative conceptions of <em>freedom</em> play better on platforms that favour simplistic, short, and provocative posts, whether it is “freedom” from immigrant “invasions” or from “mask mandates.” The left focuses more on principles such as <em>fairness</em>, and the messages are inherently more nuanced and dispersed. Whether it is the environment, gender rights, anti-racism, or LGBTQ+ issues, the broad coalition of ideas can lead to fuzzy messaging. So in today’s digital era, the left has a bigger hill to climb, and France is no exception.</p>
<p>So this is how ideology, even in its own right, fuels the digital activism gap I found in my research in why conservatives dominate online.</p>
<h2>Inequality</h2>
<p>Now for the last factor that we also see in France: inequality. The Internet was supposed to be a place where everyone can come together on the same playing field, but this is not the case. But how does this map onto the French working-class increasingly voting for Le Pen?</p>
<p>As the saying goes, the devil is in the details. Not included in polls of Le Pen’s working-class base are the members of the working-class who do not vote or those who are not citizens and thus can’t vote. As it is defined in surveys, the working class in France also does not include other low-wage workers or those unable to work. The digital divide in access and skills, for example, is still strong in France, especially in rural areas. The cliche of far-right supporters is that they are duped, uninformed, and uneducated, but in my research and with Zemmour’s base, it’s key to see the dominance of middle to upper-class “well-educated” voters that he has captured.</p>
<h2>The right’s big money</h2>
<p>Questions have also swirled around who may be financing Zemmour’s glitzy campaign of slick posters, synced social media, and well-orchestrated rallies. Certainly, conservatives are more likely to have these resources, both individually and organisationally. And this kind of big money is key to digital <em>production</em> of online content, but it does not automatically result in digital <em>participation</em>. It takes people on the ground who believe and support these far-right philosophies to keep the social media content flowing. It is not just individual supporters. Political organisations, whether parties or civil society groups, that have a lot of resources can harness the power of platform algorithms by paying staff (or trolls) to engage online or can afford the high-tech software and other gadgets to sustain digital participation.</p>
<p>The result, then, of differences in institutions, ideologies, and inequalities offline is a dominance of the far right online. The bottom line is that offline power results in online power, and with conservatives having and gaining power, it is an uphill battle for those on the left.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Created in 2007 to help accelerate and share scientific knowledge on key societal issues, the AXA Research Fund has been supporting nearly 650 projects around the world conducted by researchers from 55 countries. To learn more, visit the site of the <a href="https://www.axa-research.org">Axa Research Fund</a> or follow on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/axaresearchfund?lang=fr">@AXAResearchFund</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jen Schradie ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>While many progressive movements have organised online, conservatives dominate because of better organisation, capital, and social inequality. France’s presidential elections are a case in point.Jen Schradie, Digital Sociologist, Sciences Po Paris, Sciences Po Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1674252021-10-07T14:32:12Z2021-10-07T14:32:12ZConservation works better when local communities lead it, new evidence shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423235/original/file-20210926-125255-1yervu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mangrove reforestation project in Belo-sur-Mer, southwestern Madagascar</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We are currently facing a <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1400253">mass extinction</a> of plants and animals. To remedy this, world leaders have pledged a huge expansion of protected areas ahead of the <a href="https://www.unep.org/events/conference/un-biodiversity-conference-cop-15">UN biodiversity summits</a> to be held in October 2021 and May 2022 in Kunming, China. </p>
<p>The focus on how much of the planet to conserve overshadows questions of how nature should be conserved and by whom. In the past some conservation organisations have seen indigenous and local communities as <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/unearthing-the-myths-of-global-sustainable-forest-governance/661FE54EF21F34BD75CD874BB28B6B6F">undermining environmental conservation</a>.</p>
<p>Our research strongly contradicts this. Our <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss3/art19/">recent publication</a> in Ecology and Society shows the best way to protect both nature and human wellbeing is for indigenous and local communities to be in control. That conclusion stems from examining examples of conservation projects carried out since 2000 and their results. Our international team of 17 scientists studied the effects on habitats and species and local communities. </p>
<p>We found improvements for conservation and people are much more likely when indigenous and local communities are environmental stewards. When in charge, local communities can establish a shared vision for conserving the environments they live in and for coexisting with wildlife. We show that applying their knowledge and ways of managing habitats and species is far more effective at protecting nature than efforts controlled by outside organisations. </p>
<h2>Locals do it better</h2>
<p>For example in southwest Taiwan, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0305750X07000526">indigenous Tsou villagers</a> took over conservation activities in a state-protected forest. After the community was put in charge, poaching and illegal logging greatly reduced. This success story has become a model for other communities in Taiwan. </p>
<p>Another example involved local communities in the western Brazilian Amazon protecting nests of the giant Amazon river turtle. Informal guards from local communities along the Juruá river <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/196593552.pdf">reduced poaching</a> levels to only 2% of nests - compared to 99% elsewhere, including in state-run protected areas.</p>
<p>In stark contrast, only a small minority of the projects led by states, international NGOs or companies enhanced both conservation and local people’s lives. We found a third of those initiatives run by outsiders were detrimental for both local people and nature. Those outsider-run approaches frequently fail because managers lack the money and personnel to enforce rules introduced without local consent. Offering small financial incentives or a seat at meetings is rarely enough to obtain approval and avoid local resistance.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A safari in Tanzania" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425064/original/file-20211006-26-11mivhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425064/original/file-20211006-26-11mivhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425064/original/file-20211006-26-11mivhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425064/original/file-20211006-26-11mivhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425064/original/file-20211006-26-11mivhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425064/original/file-20211006-26-11mivhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425064/original/file-20211006-26-11mivhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Government taking profits from tourism in the Serengeti, Tanzania, angered locals who had lost access to their land.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Delbars/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In one of many examples, <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.934.8283&rep=rep1&type=pdf">protected areas</a> run by the Tanzanian government in the Serengeti for tourist safaris brought major financial gain for the state, but little for local people. Local people felt unfairly treated as they also lost access to grazing land and, in some cases, clean water. As a result of feeling excluded, locals no longer guarded their lands and illegal hunting increased.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-ranger-programs-are-working-in-queensland-they-should-be-expanded-89766">Indigenous ranger programs are working in Queensland – they should be expanded</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>. </p>
<p>However, there can be obstacles for local people in taking charge of projects. For example, in northwest California, historic discrimination against <a href="https://nature.berkeley.edu/huntsingerlab-wp/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/106-huntsinger-diekmann-yurok.pdf">the indigenous Yurok</a> has eroded local forest management organisations and knowledge. This community eventually won back control of its territory through the courts, but years of unchecked gold mining and timber extraction had caused considerable forest loss. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419778/original/file-20210907-20-1at3njz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419778/original/file-20210907-20-1at3njz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419778/original/file-20210907-20-1at3njz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419778/original/file-20210907-20-1at3njz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419778/original/file-20210907-20-1at3njz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419778/original/file-20210907-20-1at3njz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419778/original/file-20210907-20-1at3njz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graphic showing the value of conservation projects where indigenous and local people are in control.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The authors and Andy Wright www.madebyawdesign.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fairer conservation</h2>
<p>Supporting local communities’ rights to influence decisions about their lives, cultures and environments should not be viewed as a radical approach. Underestimation of local knowledge and practices by funders, governments and organisations who dominate conservation is <a href="https://rightsandresources.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Cornered-by-PAs-Brief_RRI_June-2018.pdf">counterproductive and discriminatory</a>. There has been a gradual <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/pdf/Summary%20for%20Policymakers%20IPBES%20Global%20Assessment.pdf">shift in policy</a> towards recognising the role of indigenous and local communities, although this has not yet become mainstream conservation practice. The <a href="https://www.unep.org/events/conference/un-biodiversity-conference-cop-15">UN biodiversity summit</a> must ensure a central role for indigenous and local communities or there will be another decade of well-meaning efforts that simply lead to further ecological decline and social harm. </p>
<p>There are reasons for optimism: we know conservation can become more effective through reinforcing the rights of indigenous and local communities. Examples include a declaration in Canada of more than 25 new protected areas which will follow <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/nature-legacy/indigenous-leadership-funding.html">indigenous stewardship principles</a>. </p>
<p>If this bold direction were followed across the world, it could usher in a new era of local stewardship that greatly enhances the prospects for both people and nature.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167425/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Dawson is a researcher on the ‘Just Conservation’ project funded by the Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity (CESAB) of the French Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB), <a href="http://www.fondationbiodiversite.fr">www.fondationbiodiversite.fr</a> . He is a Steering Committee member with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's Commission on Environmental, Economic and Social Policy (IUCN CEESP) who also provided initial funding for this study. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Coolsaet leads the ‘Just Conservation’ project funded by the Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity (CESAB) of the French Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB). He is a member of the Commission on Environmental, Economic and Social Policy of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's (IUCN CEESP) .</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Idrobo's research is currently funded through the Government of the Northwest Territories, the North by North Program from the Network of Centres of Excellence of Canada and the Cree Nation Government. He is a member of the Commission on Environmental, Economic and Social Policy of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's (IUCN CEESP) .</span></em></p>Conservation must be carried out by local communities to be most effective, new research shows.Neil Dawson, Research fellow in international development, University of East AngliaBrendan Coolsaet, Associate professor, Institut catholique de Lille (ICL)Julián Idrobo, Research Associate in Environmental Management, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1654482021-08-15T19:55:23Z2021-08-15T19:55:23ZRight out there: how the pandemic has given rise to extreme views and fractured conservative politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416000/original/file-20210813-15-17jl2f9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=65%2C17%2C3850%2C1976&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Great crises are a stimulus to right-wing political mobilisation. Famously, the Great Depression of the 1930s gave the Nazis their chance. It was a good time for fascists or near-fascists in other countries as well, including Australia. Here, the ground was thick with the Old Guard, New Guard, White Army, Country Movement, New Staters, Western Australian secessionists, patriotic bodies and citizens’ leagues, all claiming to be sick of politics and above it all.</p>
<p>The present pandemic has been no exception. The uncertainty of the times has been a great generator of conspiracy theories and, dangerously, of do-it-yourself medical science. The Depression gave a great boost to funny money theories such as Social Credit, which identified an evil and conspiratorial “money power” as the root of all social and economic evil, a theory that sometimes had anti-Semitic content.</p>
<p>Such conspiracy theories are still with us, expressed most obviously by the obsession of a section of the right with the supposedly malign influence of billionaire George Soros. Others worry Bill Gates is listening in, 5G technology is enslaving us, and vaccination is a plot to destroy our liberty. For many years now, the far right has been preoccupied with Islam. Without abandoning old enemies, it’s now finding new ones to worry about.</p>
<p>But not entirely new. It is a feature of right-wing political mobilisation that it tends to stitch together bits and pieces of fabric that have often been around for a long while, tailoring them into new garments for the present. Anti-vaccination arguments have been around for years. They are now being repurposed for the times.</p>
<p>Where are they coming from? Not entirely from the right, of course: there are wellness and natural lifestyle advocates, and social media influencers, who object to vaccination. Lockdown protesters might be predominantly of the right, but not exclusively so. There is a palpable frustration with restrictions on personal freedom. This extends well beyond those who might consider themselves on the right. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415771/original/file-20210812-16-6442nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415771/original/file-20210812-16-6442nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415771/original/file-20210812-16-6442nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415771/original/file-20210812-16-6442nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415771/original/file-20210812-16-6442nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415771/original/file-20210812-16-6442nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415771/original/file-20210812-16-6442nt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anti-lockdown protestors seem to be predominantly of the right, but not exclusively so.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Still, is it striking that much that is recognisable as right-wing protest about “freedom” at present has its origins in the mainstream politics of the right. Craig Kelly, an enthusiastic purveyor of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/26/mp-craig-kelly-absolutely-outraged-after-facebook-removes-his-page-for-misinformation">COVID misinformation</a>, was until recently a Liberal member for a Sydney seat, his preselection under the protection of the current prime minister. John Ruddick, a prominent member of the libertarian Liberal Democrats conspicuous in recent anti-lockdown protests in Sydney, is a former candidate for president of the Liberal Party. Campbell Newman was Liberal National Party premier of Queensland for a term: he’s now also hitched a ride with the Liberal Democrats and announced <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-08/campbell-newman-to-seek-federal-election-with-liberal-democrats/100360050">his Senate candidature</a> in the noble cause of “freedom”. Others complaining of lockdowns and restrictions, such as George Christensen and Matt Canavan, both Queensland federal politicians, remain in the Coalition government. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-barnaby-joyce-repudiates-christensens-covid-misinformation-165889">View from The Hill: Barnaby Joyce repudiates Christensen's COVID misinformation</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>All of this conforms to a historical pattern. Pauline Hanson would likely never have been heard of if not for Liberal Party preselection for Oxley in 1996. Sky News is fronted by former Liberal advisers such as Alan Jones and Peta Credlin – even if Andrew Bolt once worked on the Labor side of politics and Mark Latham puts in the odd appearance.</p>
<p>The right benefits from our media ecology. The role of the Murdoch media in turning last night’s exotic and extreme into this evening’s political meat and three veg is well enough understood. So is the role of social media in enabling the spread of conspiracy theories, loopy ideas and even violent extremism of the kind witnessed in Washington DC on January 6.</p>
<p>But there is an understandable reluctance on the part of the mainstream media, given their complicity, in exploring their own role in facilitating right-wing political mobilisation. Just over a fortnight ago, Senator Matt Canavan was talking on a program fronted by Breitbart founder and Trump adviser Steven Bannon. Last week, he was on the ABC’s Q&A, where he was handed a national audience.</p>
<p>Mainstream media thrive on the melodrama provided by the staging of stark disagreement. The advocate of locking down the population for its own safety while infections run at over 300 per day in the country’s largest city needs to be confronted with a “let the virus run free” type. For the sake of “representation” and “balance”, the right-wing Institute of Public Affairs gets media opportunities quite out of proportion to any real public interest in its libertarian ideas.</p>
<p>The revival of Hanson’s political career in the mid-2010s was fundamentally dependent on the opportunities provided by commercial television, where her extreme views and opinions could be guaranteed to draw attention, viewers and advertising coin. Similarly, she and her advisers have always understood the media value of the political gimmick – such as appearing in parliament in a burqa.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415774/original/file-20210812-20-1dvplwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415774/original/file-20210812-20-1dvplwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415774/original/file-20210812-20-1dvplwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415774/original/file-20210812-20-1dvplwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415774/original/file-20210812-20-1dvplwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415774/original/file-20210812-20-1dvplwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415774/original/file-20210812-20-1dvplwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mainstream media have long been complicit in providing a platform – and thereby validation – for extreme views.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peter Mathew/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To read the Australian section of The Spectator these days – I realise I am among a small minority who do – is to encounter a fragment of the right-wing commentariat that seems out of sorts with the Coalition government under Scott Morrison.</p>
<p>Indeed, it seems almost as upset with him as it was with its previous dangerous radical enemy, Malcolm Turnbull. In the July 17 issue, <a href="https://spectator.com.au/2021/07/good-ship-libs-now-ruddick-less/">it asserted</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Liberal Party is adrift, a large, ugly and ungainly tanker that has slipped its moorings and is taking on water as it flounders in a turbulent and unpredictable sea. On the bridge, an ineffectual captain navigates by opinion polls and focus groups, with sinister factional bosses whispering in his ear.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Commentators of this kind – and the editorial goes on to praise Ruddick as “one of the great thinkers of the modern Liberal Party over three decades” – seem almost as worried these days by Morrison as by “Dictator Dan” Andrews in Melbourne. Perhaps more so. They are worried by the authoritarianism, the big spending and the flirtation with zero-carbon ideas. Above all, they are worried by what they call the lies and deceit about COVID. </p>
<p>The basic idea in these circles is that most politicians and their health advisers have persistently exaggerated the risks of the disease. They have done so because they fundamentally hate individual freedom, care nothing for ordinary people and are cosseted from having to earn their bread in the real economy. And, once again, here are ideas you will find among certain commentators in the mainstream media, not only in strange corners of the internet or in low-circulation, right-wing magazines. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-pandemic-has-brought-out-the-worst-and-the-best-in-australians-and-their-governments-161745">How the pandemic has brought out the worst — and the best — in Australians and their governments</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In one sense, they are the Australian backwash of Brexit and Trump, mouthing the slogans of British Europhobes, Hungarian despots, Dixieland governors and Republican Party senators – and Steve Bannon.</p>
<p>But like these right-wing populist counterparts elsewhere, they are also political adventurers and entrepreneurs, seeking to build new constituencies in unknown territory. Short on solutions, big on rhetoric and in the fortunate position of not having to run anything, the libertarian right is frustrated that most of the population seems content to do what it’s told. </p>
<p>At times, it sounds as shrill as the sectarians on the far left whom it sometimes resembles. But those on the right are more consequential because they have significant media sponsors, they exploit real fears and frustrations, and they can sound reasonable when they criticise government excess and authoritarianism. </p>
<p>That is because our governments have sometimes, during this crisis, practised excess and authoritarianism.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Bongiorno does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Great crises have historically given impetus to right-wing mobilisation, and the COVID pandemic is no exception. However, it’s not always to the right’s benefit.Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1654992021-08-09T10:44:06Z2021-08-09T10:44:06ZMany conservatives have a difficult relationship with science – we wanted to find out why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414305/original/file-20210803-15-g114ao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C0%2C2768%2C2172&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many scientific findings continue to be disputed by politicians and parts of the public long after a scholarly consensus has been established. For example, <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-march-2021/">nearly a third of Americans</a> still do not accept that fossil fuel emissions cause climate change, even though the scientific community settled on a consensus that they do decades ago.</p>
<p>Research into why people reject scientific facts has identified <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0963721416654436">people’s political worldviews as the principal predictor variable</a>. People with a libertarian or conservative worldview are more likely to reject climate change and evolution and <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250123">are less likely to be vaccinated against COVID-19</a>.</p>
<p>What explains this propensity for rejection of science by some of the political right? Are there intrinsic attributes of the scientific enterprise that are uniquely challenging to people with conservative or libertarian worldviews? Or is the association merely the result of conflicting imperatives between scientific findings and their economic implications? In the case of climate change, for example, any mitigation necessarily entails interference with current economic practice.</p>
<p>We recently conducted <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104820">two large-scale surveys</a> that explored the first possibility – that some intrinsic attributes of science are in tension with aspects of conservative thinking. We focused on two aspects of science: the often tacit norms and principles that guide the scientific enterprise, and the history of how scientific progress has led us to understand that human beings are not the centre of the universe.</p>
<p>Sociologist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mertonian_norms">Robert Merton famously proposed norms</a> for the conduct of science in 1942. The norm of “communism” (different from the political philosophy of communism) holds that the results of scientific research should be the common property of the scientific community. “Universalism” postulates that knowledge should transcend racial, class, national or political barriers. “Disinteredness” mandates that scientists should conduct research for the benefit of the scientific enterprise rather than for personal gain. </p>
<p>These norms sit uneasily with strands of standard contemporary conservative thought. Conservatism is typically associated with nationalism and patriotism, at the expense of embracing cooperative internationalism. And the notion of disinterestedness may not mesh well with conservative emphasis on property rights.</p>
<p>Science has enabled us to explain the world around us but that may create further tensions – especially with religious conservatism. The idea that humans are exceptional is at the core of traditional Judeo-Christian thought, which sees the human as an <em>imago Dei</em>, an image of God, that is clearly separate from other beings and nature itself. </p>
<p>Against this human exceptionalism, the over-arching outcome of centuries of research since the scientific revolution has been a diminution of the status of human beings. We now recognise our planet to be a rather small and insignificant object in a universe full of an untold number of galaxies, rather than the centre of all creation.</p>
<h2>Testing the issues</h2>
<p>We tested how those two over-arching attributes of science – its intrinsic norms and its historical effect on how humans see themselves – might relate to conservative thought and acceptance of scientific facts in <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104820">two large-scale studies</a>. Each involved a representative sample of around 1,000 US residents.</p>
<p>We focused on three scientific issues; climate change, vaccinations, and the heritability of intelligence. The first two were chosen because of their known tendency to be rejected by people on the political right, allowing us to observe the potential moderating role of other predictors. </p>
<p>The latter was chosen because the belief that external forces such as education can improve people and their circumstances is a focus of liberalism. Conservatism, on the other hand, is skeptical of that possibility and leans more towards the idea that improvement comes from the individual – implying a lesser role for the malleability of intelligence.</p>
<p>The fact that individual differences in intelligence are related to genetic differences, with current estimates of <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ng.3285">heritability hovering around 50%</a>, is therefore potentially challenging to liberals but might be endorsed by conservatives.</p>
<p>The two studies differed slightly in how we measured political views and people’s endorsement of the norms of science, but the overall findings were quite clear. Conservatives were less likely to accept the norms of science, suggesting that the worldviews of some people on the political right may be in intrinsic conflict with the scientific enterprise. </p>
<p>Those people who accepted the norms of science were also more likely to endorse vaccinations and support the need to fight climate change. This suggests that people who embrace the scientific enterprise as a whole are also more likely to accept specific scientific findings.</p>
<p>We found limited support for the possibility that belief in human exceptionalism would predispose people to be more sceptical in their acceptance of scientific propositions. Exceptionalism had little direct effect on scientific attitudes. Therefore, our study provided no evidence for the conjecture that the long history of science in displacing humans from the centre of the world contributes to conversatives’ uneasiness with science.</p>
<p>Finally, we found no strong evidence that people on the political left are more likely to reject the genetic contribution to individual variation in intelligence. This negative result adds to the evidence that science denial is harder to find on the left, even concerning issues where basic aspects of liberal thought – in this case the belief that people can be improved – are in potential conflict with the evidence.</p>
<p>The two studies help explain why conservatives are more likely to reject scientific findings than liberals. This rejection is not only dictated by political interests clashing with a specific body of scientific knowledge (such as human-caused climate change), but it appears to represent a deeper tension between conservatism and the spirit in which science is commonly conducted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165499/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephan Lewandowsky receives funding from the Australian Research Council; Horizon 2020, European Commission (JITSUVAX); Jigsaw (technology incubator created by Google); UKRI (through Centre of Excellence REPHRAIN); Volkswagen Foundation (Germany); European Research Council (Advanced Grant PRODEMINFO); and the John Templeton Foundation (via Wake Forest University’s “Honesty Project”). He also receives funding from the Humboldt Foundation in Germany through a Research Award.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Klaus Oberauer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s not just issues like climate change and vaccines that pose problems for conservative thinkers – it’s the way science itself is conducted.Stephan Lewandowsky, Chair of Cognitive Psychology, University of BristolKlaus Oberauer, Professor of Cognitive Psychology, University of ZurichLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1351742021-07-01T22:39:29Z2021-07-01T22:39:29ZSupreme Court strikes down California’s nonprofit donor disclosure requirements: 4 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407510/original/file-20210621-35539-p4i6th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C179%2C4602%2C2583&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Who's giving to whom just became less transparent.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/give-and-take-royalty-free-image/464998367">crazydiva/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Supreme Court <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/19-251_p86b.pdf">tossed out a California law</a> requiring nonprofits to report their major donors to state officials. In a 6-3 ruling, the court said the law, intended to fight fraud, subjected donors to potential harassment and violated their First Amendment rights. Dana Brakman Reiser, a legal scholar on nonprofits, explains the case, known as <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-251">Americans for Prosperity v. Bonta</a>, and the significance of the court’s decision.</em></p>
<h2>1. What was the case about?</h2>
<p>Two <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/26/koch-brothers-americans-for-prosperity-rightwing-political-group">conservative nonprofit groups</a>, <a href="https://americansforprosperity.org/civil-liberties-make-progress-possible/">Americans for Prosperity Foundation</a> and the <a href="https://www.thomasmore.org/about-the-thomas-more-law-center/">Thomas More Law Center</a>, sued California’s government over its requirement that the identity of a charity’s biggest donors be <a href="https://oag.ca.gov/charities/renewals">shared with the state’s attorney general</a>. </p>
<p>Though the disclosure is made to the state, not the public, <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-251/169507/20210222113359763_19-251ts.pdf">both</a> <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-251/169531/20210222131516000_19-255%20Brief%20for%20Petitioner.pdf">groups</a> claimed that California failed to sufficiently safeguard the names of donors, <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/high-court-skeptical-of-california-donor-disclosure-law/">resulting in numerous data leaks</a>. The litigants argued that given the potential of disclosure by California’s authorities, donors who support controversial charities could reasonably fear harassment if the public learned their identities. </p>
<p>On those grounds, Americans for Prosperity Foundation and the Thomas More Law Center accused the state of hindering their constitutionally guaranteed <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1594/freedom-of-association">freedom of association</a>. A <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/19-251.html">diverse array of nonprofits</a>, including the American Civil Liberties Union and the NAACP Legal Defense Fund, agreed and urged the court to block California’s disclosure rule.</p>
<p>California countered by arguing that donor information is necessary to <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-251/172982/20210325141442657_19%20251%2019%20255%20Brief%20on%20the%20Merits.pdf">combat charity fraud</a> and that, especially after adjustments made during the litigation, donor names <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-251/172982/20210325141442657_19%20251%2019%20255%20Brief%20on%20the%20Merits.pdf">submitted to the state are now secure</a>. The <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-251/170618/20210301204917004_AFPF%20030121.7.pdf">United States</a> and a group of prominent <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-251/173468/20210331122350729_19-251_bsac_Scholars_Law_Non-Profit_Orgs.pdf">nonprofit law scholars</a> filed briefs in support of California’s position. </p>
<h2>2. What does the ruling mean?</h2>
<p>California will no longer be able to mandate that charities disclose their donors to the state as a matter of course. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/594/19-251/#tab-opinion-4446163">majority opinion</a> by Chief Justice John Roberts recognized the state’s important interest in rooting out charity fraud but held that a donor disclosure system can be maintained only if it is narrowly tailored to meet the government’s needs. The court found California’s law, on the other hand, to be overly broad. To reach that conclusion, the majority relied heavily on evidence filed in the case that California did not actually use the donor information it demanded to initiate anti-fraud actions.</p>
<p>The three dissenting justices <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/594/19-251/#tab-opinion-4446162">strongly disagreed</a> with both the majority’s approach to the law and its reading of the facts. Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote that the plaintiffs failed to show that California’s law had actually burdened their right to association, as they argued prior Supreme Court First Amendment cases require. Absent such a showing, these justices said, they would have sustained the law, especially since it did not require public disclosure and most donors were probably “agnostic” about the requirement.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397135/original/file-20210426-17-d2vsaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=61%2C35%2C5775%2C2817&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Drawing of a man in a suit and tie speaking through a dollar-decorated megaphone" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397135/original/file-20210426-17-d2vsaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=61%2C35%2C5775%2C2817&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397135/original/file-20210426-17-d2vsaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397135/original/file-20210426-17-d2vsaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397135/original/file-20210426-17-d2vsaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397135/original/file-20210426-17-d2vsaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397135/original/file-20210426-17-d2vsaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397135/original/file-20210426-17-d2vsaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The court found that requiring donor disclosure could chill free speech.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/businessman-holding-money-megaphone-shouting-royalty-free-illustration/1226753159">sesame/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Does this change how states oversee nonprofits?</h2>
<p>Yes, but not all states will be affected in the same way. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-251/173639/20210331195434401_19-251_19-255_Brief%20for%20New%20York%20et%20al%20Amici%20Curiae.pdf">New York, Hawaii and New Jersey</a> have similar donor disclosure laws, which this case will also undo. And the court didn’t give California or these other states an easy way to “cure” such laws so they would pass constitutional muster, whether by improving the security of the data or exempting controversial charities from disclosure.</p>
<p>States that tackle charity fraud through other means, such as attorney general investigations, are mostly unaffected by the ruling. Even those states that forgo donor disclosure impose many other reporting requirements on the charities they monitor, including demands that charities identify their directors and officers to regulators. The majority opinion’s broad language about the need to justify disclosure requirements could prompt future challenges to these more widespread charity reporting requirements. </p>
<h2>4. Does this mean the IRS can’t collect this information either?</h2>
<p>The federal government mandates that nonprofit charities disclose the same information about major donors to the Internal Revenue Service. </p>
<p>But today’s Supreme Court case addresses only the constitutionality of a state law requirement. Neither Americans for Prosperity Foundation nor the Thomas More Law Center tried to connect their objections over California’s law to the IRS’ disclosure mandate. </p>
<p>Of course, their decisions not to do so in this case do not prevent future litigation challenging the federal donor disclosure system.</p>
<p>The outcome of such a case is uncertain. A court could still uphold the federal requirement if it found the IRS’ disclosure rule was tightly connected to its important role as a tax regulator. After all, the IRS does not only monitor charities for fraud and abuse as state attorneys general do. It also oversees a system that provides substantial tax benefits to exempt organizations and their donors, a point the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-251/170618/20210301204917004_AFPF%20030121.7.pdf">U.S. solicitor general emphasized</a> to the court. </p>
<p>The federal government’s defense against an attack on its disclosure requirement could also point to its already strong protections for donor data. While certainly <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/the-secret-irs-files-trove-of-never-before-seen-records-reveal-how-the-wealthiest-avoid-income-tax">not immune to leaks</a> or hacking, the IRS maintains a highly secure database of confidential tax information. Moreover, attempts to breach it <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2014-title26/pdf/USCODE-2014-title26-subtitleF-chap76-subchapB-sec7431.pdf">trigger civil</a> and <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2015-title26/pdf/USCODE-2015-title26-subtitleF-chap75-subchapA-partI-sec7213.pdf">criminal penalties</a>.</p>
<p>If the courts were eventually to strike down the IRS’ donor disclosure requirements, though, it would significantly upend federal regulation of tax-exempt charities. </p>
<p>This case could also portend a future challenge over federal campaign finance law. Right now, the <a href="https://www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/how-to-research-public-records/">Federal Election Commission collects</a> information on political donors and candidates for the public record. <a href="https://time.com/5957340/supreme-court-campaign-finance-americans-for-prosperity-foundation-v-rodriquez/">Some worry</a> the California decision imperils this disclosure system as well. </p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dana Brakman Reiser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In a 6-3 ruling, the court’s majority said the requirements violated donors’ First Amendment rights by subjecting them to potential harassment.Dana Brakman Reiser, Professor of Law, Brooklyn Law SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1609762021-05-21T12:26:50Z2021-05-21T12:26:50ZRepresentative Cheney calls for order<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401892/original/file-20210520-23-1u2hp2f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C25%2C5526%2C3659&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rep. Liz Cheney, Republican of Wyoming, speaks to the press at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on May 12, 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/representative-liz-cheney-republican-of-wyoming-speaks-to-news-photo/1232842192?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Liz Cheney reveres order. Donald Trump detests it. </p>
<p>Simple, yes, but that sums up the difference between the elected but exiled U.S. congresswoman and the exiled but elected-in-his-own-mind former president. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tamupress.com/book/9781623499068/demagogue-for-president/">Countless critics</a> have detailed Trump’s disruptive effects on national life, but Cheney’s call for order deserves attention. She offers a coherent, conservative <a href="https://theconversation.com/search/result?sg=e14bf58a-8037-40fd-a5a7-90dd3d09313d&sp=1&sr=5&url=%2Ftrump-and-the-gop-the-silent-majority-versus-the-establishment-53616">alternative to Trumpist populism</a>. As a <a href="https://communication.illinois.edu/directory/profile/jmmurphy">scholar</a> of American political speeches, I think it important to assess her persuasive force as well as her deep roots in the conservative tradition.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401929/original/file-20210520-15-bhmxuq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dick, Lynne and Liz Cheney in a hotel room, looking at a document that Dick is holding." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401929/original/file-20210520-15-bhmxuq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401929/original/file-20210520-15-bhmxuq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401929/original/file-20210520-15-bhmxuq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401929/original/file-20210520-15-bhmxuq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401929/original/file-20210520-15-bhmxuq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401929/original/file-20210520-15-bhmxuq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401929/original/file-20210520-15-bhmxuq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Liz Cheney is the daughter of two prominent conservative GOP members, former Vice President Dick Cheney and Lynne Cheney, the former chair of the National Endowment for the Humanities. She’s seen here with them the morning after the Nov. 7, 2000 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-morning-after-the-election-without-a-clear-winner-vice-news-photo/912786874?adppopup=true">David Hume Kennerly/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Point of no return</h2>
<p>Like many of her <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691174105/conservatism">conservative ancestors</a>, Rep. Cheney believes that people have a fundamental need for order. Absent a clear set of inviolable rules, society will collapse. The value of order is most evident to those who have seen it disappear or who live in a world without rules.</p>
<p>She began her <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/11/politics/liz-cheney-floor-speech-full-remarks/index.html">May 11, 2021 speech</a> on the House floor with examples of just such people, times when she witnessed freedom’s fragility. Kenyan soldiers chasing voters away from the polls. A Russian mayor telling her of his democratic dreams, only to be poisoned years later by “Vladimir Putin’s thugs.” A young Polish woman revealing her fear that people would forget the price of freedom. </p>
<p>Examples have strong psychological power on people because they are concrete and specific. Think of those <a href="https://youtu.be/9gspElv1yvc">advertisements that feature</a> the faces of very real suffering animals, who might even look like your own beagle. In her speech, Cheney sets up the audience to see the world through the eyes of the characters in these stories, to feel what it means to lose democracy’s rules. Each is only one instance, but together, they form a pattern. </p>
<p>When there is no order, she’s saying, the powerful trample the ordinary and the rule of law protects no one. We all become prey.</p>
<p>If the audience identifies with these people, that lends Cheney’s next argument more force. Americans, she says, now face the same threat. In a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/05/liz-cheney-republican-party-turning-point/">Washington Post</a> essay from early May, she notes that former President Trump has “repeated his claims that the 2020 election was a fraud and stolen.” He does so, she argues, in the full knowledge that such words “provoked violence on Jan. 6.” He does so in the full knowledge that the “Electoral College has spoken.” He does so in the full knowledge that “more than 60” judges have rejected his claims, including many that he appointed. </p>
<p>Here, Cheney expresses her commitment to order through her reliance on institutions. Institutions like the Electoral College and the courts uphold order. </p>
<p>“That,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/05/liz-cheney-republican-party-turning-point/">she writes</a>, “is the rule of law; that is our constitutional system for resolving claims of election fraud.” The alternative is the anarchy of Jan. 6.</p>
<p>The consequences of Trump’s incitement to chaos on Jan. 6, she believes, are clear. In the essay and speech, she turns to metaphors of national fabric or “constitutional structure.” Mixing the two, she says Trump seeks to “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/05/liz-cheney-republican-party-turning-point/">unravel</a>” that structure. If he wins, America will come undone. Whatever one thought of him earlier, he has here crossed a line. She says we’re “at a turning point.” </p>
<p>Scholars generally call this strategy a “<a href="https://undpress.nd.edu/9780268004460/new-rhetoric-the/">locus of the irreparable</a>.” It is the point of no return, the place that makes America like all of those other countries she cited. If we slip here, we can never go back.</p>
<p>And that, she asserts, would be a disaster because this is not simply about America. It is about the fate of democracy in the world. </p>
<h2>Attacking Trump from the right</h2>
<p>In their reverence for order, conservatives traditionally recognize that “<a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/adam-gopnik/a-thousand-small-sanities/9781541699366/">myths matter</a>.” Stories of greatness sanctify the nation and its people, making something more of both than the ordinary business of life. </p>
<p>On the House floor, Cheney invoked Ronald Reagan and Pope John Paul II, men who helped the West win the Cold War because they grasped what she described as the “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/11/politics/liz-cheney-floor-speech-full-remarks/index.html">miracle of America</a>.” “Miracle,” she writes in the Post, is the word President Reagan used in his <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/reagan1.asp">first inaugural address</a> to describe the peaceful transfer of power.</p>
<p>Her claim that “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/05/liz-cheney-republican-party-turning-point/">America is exceptional</a>” due to its “peaceful transfer of power” may seem to liberals an inexact account of history, but to many Americans, it is a powerful expression of patriotism, an assurance that riotous thugs have no monopoly on love of country. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401939/original/file-20210520-23-mr3vxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rioters at the Capitol insurrection, including a person with a hat that says " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401939/original/file-20210520-23-mr3vxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401939/original/file-20210520-23-mr3vxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401939/original/file-20210520-23-mr3vxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401939/original/file-20210520-23-mr3vxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401939/original/file-20210520-23-mr3vxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401939/original/file-20210520-23-mr3vxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401939/original/file-20210520-23-mr3vxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cheney was ousted from House GOP leadership because of her insistence that President Trump was responsible for the Capitol insurrection; here, Trump supporters at the Jan. 6 breach of the Capitol.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CapitolBreachDenialism/863861b60f5b4da6bfa5ca02a3c4c57c/photo?Query=subjects.code:6eb0fe9b2f1647f392dd57bd018e36fa&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=&totalCount=145&currentItemNo=26">AP Photo/John Minchillo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At a time when the nation faces a new Cold War with China, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/05/liz-cheney-republican-party-turning-point/">she argues</a>, not to mention “the ridiculous wokeness of our political rivals, the irrational policies at the border and runaway spending that threatens a return to the catastrophic inflation of the 1970s,” America cannot falter.</p>
<p>In this account of the conservative tradition, the Constitution works because presidents and people put aside their individual desires for the good of the community. Disciplined individuals create ordered families who build strong nations. When necessary, true patriots give up power and seek election on another day. </p>
<p>Social order and political peace can then continue unbroken to the next generation due to a self-control that Donald Trump conspicuously lacks. </p>
<p>Liz Cheney makes the kind of argument that Trump’s previous rivals have lacked. She attacks him from the right. She portrays him as a threat to the rule of law. She shows he embraces, rather than rejects, “<a href="https://www.vox.com/a/president-trump-inauguration-speech-transcript-annotations">American carnage</a>.” With her authority as a scion of the former Vice President Richard Cheney and, more generally, the conservative tradition, she exiles Trump from its ranks. </p>
<p>Yet many Trump voters have no stake in order. The present order and its institutions have not benefited them, they believe, and they elected Trump precisely because <a href="https://theconversation.com/search/result?sg=fedf42e9-5a30-4126-812a-99427878fe4f&sp=1&sr=5&url=%2Ftrump-supporters-have-little-trust-in-societal-institutions-131113">they wanted to shatter the establishment</a>. If they define the Republican future as they have the past, Cheney will fail.</p>
<p>Times change, however, and, as the pandemic fades, the economy grows and normalcy returns, people may grow tired of Trump’s act. If Republicans wish to return to their traditional principles, Liz Cheney has given them the chance to do so.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s Politics + Society editors pick need-to-know stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-need-to-know">Sign up for Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160976/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John M. Murphy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Rep. Liz Cheney may have been exiled from her party’s leadership, but she’s after a bigger thing: the restoration of politically conservative values in the GOP and its voters.John M. Murphy, Professor of Communication, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1508202021-02-26T13:27:19Z2021-02-26T13:27:19ZA less Trumpy version of Trumpism might be the future of the Republican Party<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385951/original/file-20210223-13-8mn2wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C2968%2C2047&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is Sen. Marco Rubio, espousing a polished populism, the future of the GOP?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-marco-rubio-speaks-before-the-arrival-of-u-s-president-news-photo/1283437043?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, but his populist ideas may continue to animate the Republican Party.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/one-nation-two-realities-9780190677176?cc=us&lang=en&">scholars of American beliefs and elections</a>, we can envision a less Trumpy version of Trumpism holding sway over the party in coming years. We call it “polished populism.”</p>
<p>Populism is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0002716216662639">folk-politics</a> based on the premise that ordinary citizens are wiser and more virtuous than supposedly corrupt and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/future-populism-2020s/604393/">self-serving elites</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jan/10/we-the-people-the-battle-to-define-populism">Populist rhetoric</a> is often expressed in cruder, coarser language than ordinary political speech – less like a politician on a stage and <a href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/the-conversation/sd-most-populist-lines-from-trumps-speech-20170120-htmlstory.html">more like a guy in a bar</a>. </p>
<p>Trump, a prime practitioner of populist rhetoric, took this to an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZRXESV3R74">extreme</a> with the shorthand of Twitter and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/insider/Trump-twitter-insults-list.html">insults</a> of the locker room.</p>
<p>Polished populists take a different approach, arguing for the <a href="https://www.amacad.org/news/populism-and-future-american-politics">same policies</a> that Trump did – <a href="https://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/3/27/15037232/trump-populist-appeal-culture-economy">limiting immigration</a>, redistributing wealth toward the <a href="https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2020/article/populism-puzzle">working class</a> rather than just the poor, opposing the woke policies of <a href="http://yris.yira.org/comments/2666">social justice movements</a>, promoting “America First” foreign and <a href="https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/populism_and_the_economics_of_globalization.pdf">trade policies</a> – but without his overtly antagonistic language. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/bulwark-never-trump-republicans-biden/617025/">Some Republicans</a> are now <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/05/the-never-trumpers-next-move/609064/">arguing for a rejection of populism and a return to traditional conservatism</a>. Those <a href="https://www.nhbr.com/traditional-republican-values/">long-standing GOP priorities</a> include limited government, strong national defense of American interests abroad, religious values and, perhaps most importantly, ordinary political personalities.</p>
<p>For two reasons – the GOP’s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-swing-states/">narrow electoral defeat in 2020</a> and the <a href="https://www.axios.com/republican-party-demographics-threat-trump-racism-1524a8a1-c2f1-4183-896f-107420e2d50a.html">changing demographics of the Republican Party</a> – we believe that populist policies, if not rhetoric, will continue to be a dominant theme of the Republican Party.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Trump at a massive rally just before the election." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Donald Trump smiles after speaking during an election rally on Nov. 3, 2020, in Grand Rapids, Mich.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-smiles-after-speaking-during-a-rally-news-photo/1229431380?adppopup=true">Kamil Krzaczynski/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Populism versus traditional conservatism</h2>
<p>The contemporary <a href="https://www.wpr.org/how-reagan-helped-usher-new-conservatism-american-politics">conservatism associated with Ronald Reagan</a> in the 1980s and <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/04/20020430.html">George W. Bush in the 2000s</a> has several facets and factions, but it can be summed up in the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/A-Citizens-Guide-to-American-Ideology-Conservatism-and-Liberalism-in-Contemporary/Marietta/p/book/9780415899000">phrase</a>, “You keep what you earn, it’s a dangerous world, and God is good.”</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.routledge.com/A-Citizens-Guide-to-American-Ideology-Conservatism-and-Liberalism-in-Contemporary/Marietta/p/book/9780415899000">economic, national defense and social conservatives</a> of previous decades tended to agree that human nature is untrustworthy and society is fragile, so the U.S. needs to defend against external enemies and internal decline. </p>
<p>Populist conservatism accepts those views but adds something different: the interests and perceptions of “ordinary” people against “elites.” <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-actually-is-populism-and-why-does-it-have-a-bad-reputation-109874">So populism</a> rejects the notion of a natural aristocracy of wealth and education, replacing it with the idea that people it considers elites, including career politicians, bureaucrats, journalists and academics, have been promoting their own interests at the expense of regular folk.</p>
<h2>The identity divide</h2>
<p>The recent rise of populism in America has been driven in part by a clear economic reality: <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality">The expansion of wealth over the last 40 years</a> has gone almost entirely to the upper reaches of society. At the same time, <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/">the middle has stagnated or declined economically</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/populism-erupts-when-people-feel-disconnected-and-disrespected-151423">populist interpretation</a> is that elites benefited from the globalization and technological advancements they encouraged, while the advantages of those trends bypassed ordinary working people. Calls for trade protections and national borders appeal to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1468-4446.12319">Americans who feel left behind</a>.</p>
<p>Populism also has a <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-political-divide-on-both-sides-of-atlantic-populists-v-cosmopolitans-59876">cultural aspect</a>: rejection of the perceived <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022103116305509">condescension</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/opinion/education-prejudice.html">smugness</a> of the “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-highly-educated-elites-are-stuck-in-a-nightmare-of-their-own-making/2020/11/13/bcde3c98-25d7-11eb-a688-5298ad5d580a_story.html">highly educated elite</a>.”</p>
<p>In that sense, populism is driven by identity (who someone believes they are like, and perhaps more importantly, who they are not like). For populists, the like-minded are ordinary folk – middle income, middle-brow educations at public high schools and state universities, often middle-of-the-country – and the dissimilar are the products of expensive educations and urban lifestyles.</p>
<p>While traditional conservatism <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/15/opinion/politics/never-trump-republican-party.html?">has not vanished from the GOP</a>, populist perceptions dominate the new <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/gop-rapidly-becoming-blue-collar-party-here-s-what-means-n1258468">working-class foundations</a> of the party. And those reflect the <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/527863-the-diploma-divide-in-american-politics">emerging divide in education</a>. </p>
<p>The base of the Republican Party has shifted from more wealthy and educated Americans to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2018/11/education-gap-explains-american-politics/575113/">voters without college degrees</a>. In the 1990s, whites who did not attend college tended to back Democrat Bill Clinton, but in 2016 they <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/">supported Republican Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton</a> by 39 percentage points. In 2020, it was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html">roughly the same</a> for Trump over Biden. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2002, President George W. Bush spoke about the ideals represented in his ‘compassionate conservatism’ to representatives from local community groups in Cleveland, Ohio.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-george-w-bush-delivers-a-speech-to-about-3-000-news-photo/51684553?adppopup=true">Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The 2020 outcome and the GOP future</h2>
<p>We believe the Republican Party will be slow to move away from this new identity.</p>
<p>Even after a pandemic, a recession, an impeachment, four years of anti-immigration sentiment and the Black Lives Matter protests, Trump still received <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-popular-vote-record-barack-obama-us-presidential-election-donald-trump/">more votes than any presidential candidate in history not named Joe Biden</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/04/politics/biden-popular-vote-margin-7-million/index.html">Biden’s overall victory was by a margin of 7 million votes</a>. But his victory in the Electoral College relied on a total of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/did-biden-win-little-or-lot-answer-yes-n1251845">45,000 votes in three states</a>. This was similar to Trump’s narrow 2016 Electoral College margin of 77,000 votes, also in three states. A strong Republican candidate, a foreign policy problem for the incumbent Democrat or a small piece of luck could shift the presidency back to the other party.</p>
<p>Support for Republicans even <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-increases-share-black-hispanic-vote-1544698">grew somewhat among traditionally Democratic African American and Hispanic voters</a>, despite the GOP’s anti-Black Lives Matter and anti-immigrant rhetoric. </p>
<p>Clearly, Trumpism was <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-the-2020-election/">not repudiated by voters in the way that Democrats had hoped</a>. It is entirely possible that if the pandemic had not occurred – which was a major source of the decline in his support – Donald Trump <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-covid-19-led-to-donald-trumps-defeat-150110">would still be in the White House</a>. </p>
<p>The GOP could conclude that its loss was only due to an outside event and not a fundamental rejection of policy. That would give the party little incentive to change course, aside from changing the face on the poster.</p>
<p>Over the next four years we believe the GOP will solidify the transition to a populist base, though not without resistance from traditional conservatives. </p>
<p>Republican victory in a future presidential election would likely require an alliance between traditional and populist conservatives, with both groups turning out to vote. The question is which one will lead the coalition. </p>
<p>The competition for the 2024 Republican nomination will likely also be a contest between these two party bases and ideologies, with the emerging winner defining the post-Trump GOP.</p>
<h2>The 2024 standard bearers</h2>
<p>The Republican contenders for the 2024 nomination and the new leadership of the GOP include a broad range of populists versus traditional conservatives. </p>
<p>Perhaps a leading indicator of the move toward polished populism is the shift in the rhetoric employed by <a href="https://twitter.com/marcorubio">Marco Rubio</a>. </p>
<p>The senator from Florida was once a traditional conservative, but has shifted toward populism after his trouncing by Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary. Recently he argued that “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/525585-rubio-gop-must-rebrand-as-party-of-multiethnic-multiracial-working-class-voters%20https:/thehill.com/homenews/news/525585-rubio-gop-must-rebrand-as-party-of-multiethnic-multiracial-working-class-voters">the future of the party is based on a multiethnic, multiracial, working-class coalition</a>,” defined as “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/525585-rubio-gop-must-rebrand-as-party-of-multiethnic-multiracial-working-class-voters">normal, everyday people who don’t want to live in a city where there is no police department, where people rampage through the streets every time they are upset about something</a>.”</p>
<p>The opposing trend toward rejecting Trumpist populism is exemplified by the shift in the <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2021/magazine-nikki-haleys-choice/">arguments made</a> by <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nikki-haley-americans-woke-left-biden-president">Nikki Haley</a>. Haley, the U.N. ambassador under the Trump administration and former South Carolina governor, has <a href="https://6abc.com/nikki-haley-trump-interview-politico-us-capitol-riots/10333025/">rejected Trump’s leadership</a>, now arguing that “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538573-haley-breaks-with-trump-we-shouldnt-have-followed-him">we shouldn’t have followed him</a>.”</p>
<p>These two Republicans and <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/531796-five-gop-contenders-other-than-trump-for-2024">several others</a> see a potential president in the mirror. Which one <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/531796-five-gop-contenders-other-than-trump-for-2024">mirrors the current GOP</a> will depend on the realignment or retrenchment between the populists and the traditionalists.</p>
<p>Polished populism – Trump’s policies without his personality – may be the future of the GOP’s identity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150820/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump’s ticket to the White House was a coarse version of populism. Will his successors in the GOP be different – or simply present a more polished version of his antagonistic rhetoric?Morgan Marietta, Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass LowellDavid C. Barker, Professor of Government and Director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1523782021-01-05T18:11:46Z2021-01-05T18:11:46ZThe legitimacy of the US Supreme Court put to the test of its conservatism<p>The outcome of the 2020 US presidential election is no longer in doubt: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won, taking <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/dec/08/us-election-results-2020-joe-biden-defeats-donald-trump-to-win-presidency">306 Electoral College votes</a>, well above the 270-vote threshold – ironically, the same number that Donald Trump himself received in 2016 when he beat Hillary Clinton. The Electoral College <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-270-electoral-college-vote-d429ef97af2bf574d16463384dc7cc1e">confirmed Biden’s victory</a> on December 14, and he will be inaugurated on January 20 at noon.</p>
<p>For the Democratic Party and its supporters, however, the much-hoped-for “blue wave” did not materialize. No matter how the last votes are to be counted (and recounted), the 2020 election was not an anti-Republican referendum. Indeed, this reality may be decisive in how the conservative majority on the Supreme Court chooses to decide contentious election litigation and establish its legitimacy as an objective judiciary, independent of the partisan agenda of any politician.</p>
<h2>Conservative isn’t a synonym for corrupt</h2>
<p>Just a little over a week before Election Day, in a <a href="https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=116&session=2&vote=00222">51-48 split</a>, the Senate voted to confirm Amy Coney Barret’s nomination to the Supreme Court, replacing Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg just five weeks after her death. Trump’s three Supreme Court appointments, all during his single presidential term, are not exceptional, though <a href="https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations/SupremeCourtNominations1789present.htm">no president has done so</a> since Ronald Reagan (and Richard Nixon before him), but they raise questions concerning the court’s supposed apolitical nature.</p>
<p>The conservative dominance of the Supreme Court is no longer an opinion, but rather confirmed fact. Since the emergence of the Federalist Society (<a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/08/27/federalist-society-yale-history-conservative-law-court-219608">started as a conservative student group at Yale</a>) in 1982, conservative lawyers, legal scholars, and politicians have worked quietly and diligently to establish a network capable of influencing the American legal system. The cementing of the court’s conservative majority is less a short-order coup d'état than it is the long-anticipated maturing of organizational and institutional investments made over the past half century.</p>
<p>One nuance that many of the calls for expanding the court and eliminating lifetime tenure for justices fail to acknowledge is that a conservative court does not necessarily equate to a corrupt court. Unlike in the Executive and Legislative branches of government, in the Judiciary, political ideology (<a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/section-1-growing-ideological-consistency/">which has not always been the inerrant indicator of party identification that it is today</a>) works differently. Partisanship, for elected officials is a powerful and oftentimes useful tool.</p>
<p>Still, the strongest indicator of vote choice, partisanship gets politicians in office and keeps them there. In the electoral process, political party platforms help voters to translate their values, convictions, and preferences into articulate policy positions, which are then pursued by politicians wishing to remain in office. Representing constituents’ (often partisan) policy preferences in office is an essential part of the job. In the Judiciary, however, the American common law legal tradition offers no formal structural role for political parties. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/secret-code-senate-confirmation-hearings/616704/">As Amy Coney Barret has reiterated throughout her confirmation hearing</a>, stare decisis means that Justices are bound by precedent in their rulings. A conservative court does not mean a Republican court, the influence of ideology in the courtroom is different, by design, to its influence in Congress or the presidency.</p>
<h2>The role of ideology on the court</h2>
<p>Even if a conservative majority on the court does not mean the same thing as it would in the House or Senate, ideology certainly plays a role in the way Justices are scrutinized during their confirmation hearings, choose which cases to hear, and ultimately apply precedent to decide those cases.</p>
<p>The words of Senator Diane Feinstein (D-CA) during Barret’s initial confirmation hearing to the Seventh District Court of Appeals, saying <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mDQM1TzlAM">“the dogma lives loudly in you”</a>, referring to Barret’s strong Catholic faith as a potential ideological disqualification, were widely criticized as out of bounds and inappropriate. While Barret’s Catholic faith and orthodox position on abortion should not disqualify her to sit on the bench, under the <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/interpretation/article-vi/clauses/32">No Religious Test clause</a> (Article VI) of the Constitution, many note its seeming discordance with American public opinion as <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/03/about-seven-in-ten-americans-oppose-overturning-roe-v-wade/">a majority of Americans do not wish to see Roe v. Wade</a> overturned.</p>
<p>Since judges are so strongly tied to precedent, the most ostensible manifestations of ideology are the legal philosophies that can be articulated through the judicial framework. The judicial activism versus restraint dichotomy that fuels much current debate over the way Justices view their role on the bench and are identified ideologically, have not always been liberal or conservative-owned positions. In an article in the <em>Texas Law Review</em>, Jack M. Balkin <a href="https://texaslawreview.org/why-liberals-and-conservatives-flipped-on-judicial-restraint-judicial-review-in-the-cycles-of-constitutional-time/">notes</a> that liberals and conservatives switched positions on judicial restraint and the role of the federal courts twice in the 20th century alone. If history, then, is a useful tool for understanding future trends, what may be conservative legal philosophy today may not be tomorrow.</p>
<p>Additionally, justices’ ideology does not remain fixed over time, rather it tends to evolve as they “grow” in office – <a href="https://www.flother.is/2016/supreme-court-ideology/">the trend actually being toward the left</a> (as Justices Kennedy and now Roberts have shown). While a long-term liberalizing trend perhaps brings little comfort to those who rightly note that Trump’s midnight appointments are unlikely to follow in Roberts’ moderate “third way”, hope may be found in the court’s need for legitimacy.</p>
<h2>A never-ending need for legitimacy</h2>
<p>Hamilton writes in <em>Federalist 78</em> of <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed78.asp">“the natural feebleness of the judiciary”</a>, in its constant jeopardy of being overpowered by the other branches. The court’s democratic deficit is both its greatest asset and gravest weakness: in order to have liberty, a nation must have a Judiciary independent of the constant evaluations of voters. Unlike the president or members of Congress, the judiciary must be free from the yoke of democratic accountability, otherwise judges would likely act as legislators representing the will of the voters (in hopes of retaining their office). Paradoxically, it is this very protection that becomes a liability, John Marshall was well aware of this in <em>Marbury v. Madison</em>: give into one’s partisan temptations (pushing through Federalist judges) and risk losing all legitimacy (when the President chooses not to heed the court’s rulings). </p>
<p>The same can be said of the court’s relationship to public opinion and <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-supreme-court-and-the-climate-of-the-era">was expertly articulated</a> by 20th century constitutional law scholar Paul Freund:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“[The court] should never be influenced by the weather of the day but inevitably they will be influenced by the climate of the era.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>While justices are provided a shelter from the hailstorm of public opinion, total disregard (particularly on a suspected partisan basis) for the other branches of government and public opinion would threaten the lifeblood of the court, its legitimacy. The president might attempt to pack the court, as FDR threatened in the <a href="https://time.com/5702280/court-packing-history/">Judicial Procedures Reform Bill of 1937</a>, and the public might decide to ignore Supreme Court rulings.</p>
<p>Despite Trump’s clear desire for the Supreme Court to tip the election in his favor (aided in large part by his newest appointee), Biden’s lead was large enough that it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/fact-check-us-could-the-supreme-court-still-save-donald-trump-150554">highly unlikely that the Court will decide the race as it did in 2000</a>. Whatever Trump’s future after leaving the White House, the new conservative majority will decide in the coming years not only which votes will be counted, but its future as a legitimate, independent, third branch of government. Rightly or wrongly, Trump’s success in securing a third appointment in four short years means that all eyes will be on the new conservative court.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152378/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The US Supreme Court now clearly leans towards the Conservatives, but it has not become a political tool in the hands of Donald Trump and the Republican Party.Blandine Chelini-Pont, Professeur des Universités en histoire contemporaine, Aix-Marseille Université (AMU)Robin D. Presthus, Enseignant au Moravian College de Pennsylvanie, doctorant au Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire De Droit et Mutations Sociales, Aix-Marseille Université (AMU)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1495262020-11-09T05:46:13Z2020-11-09T05:46:13ZWhat’s next for the Republicans after Trump? Here are 5 reasons for pessimism — and 5 reasons for hope<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368180/original/file-20201109-13-69le66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Evan Vucci/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a post-election poll for the <a href="https://arts.unimelb.edu.au/e/trumpbiden-2020-unpacking-an-election-like-no-other?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=trump-biden-webinars&utm_content=election-watch">University of Melbourne’s US election webinar series</a> we asked the several hundred people in the audience if President Donald Trump’s defeat would mean the death of “Trumpism”. A full 92% said “no”.</p>
<p>Now that Democratic challenger Joe Biden has won the election and will become the next president, the logical question for the Republican Party is: what’s next? </p>
<p>Will Trump — and Trumpism — remain dominant features of American life after the election, and if so, what does this mean for the Republicans? </p>
<p>If you are conservative, there are at least five reasons to feel concerned about Trump’s legacy — and another five to be optimistic about it.</p>
<h2>Five reasons to be pessimistic</h2>
<p>1) Biden has won the presidency with the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=storyline_menu_recirc">largest popular vote tally</a> in American history (more than 75 million and counting). </p>
<p>His mandate is considerable for this reason. He now gets to establish the country’s political agenda, both domestically and internationally. Republicans will seek to block him at every turn, but as they have now lost the presidency, they have also lost the initiative.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-republicans-and-others-concerned-about-the-economy-have-reason-to-celebrate-biden-in-the-white-house-149145">Why Republicans and others concerned about the economy have reason to celebrate Biden in the White House</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>2) Trump’s enduring popularity (no Republican has ever received more votes in a presidential election) means he will continue to set the agenda and tone of conservative politics for at least the next few years. </p>
<p>This will no doubt upset conservative critics and “Never Trumpers” like <a href="https://nyti.ms/3mvzduc">David Brooks</a>, <a href="https://nyti.ms/3807az7">Bret Stephens</a>, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/peter-wehner/">Peter Wehner</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/JRubinBlogger?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor">Jennifer Rubin</a>, as well as activists at the <a href="https://lincolnproject.us/">Lincoln Project</a>, who have articulated a revulsion for Trump since he became a presidential contender. </p>
<p>For them, he represents a brand of populism antithetical to conservative values like the importance of institutions in public life, reverence for good character and the rule of law. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368178/original/file-20201109-21-1a2s2vy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368178/original/file-20201109-21-1a2s2vy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368178/original/file-20201109-21-1a2s2vy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368178/original/file-20201109-21-1a2s2vy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368178/original/file-20201109-21-1a2s2vy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368178/original/file-20201109-21-1a2s2vy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368178/original/file-20201109-21-1a2s2vy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump supporters protesting the presidential election results in Michigan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Goldman/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>3) Trump’s ability to galvanise grassroots conservatives around the country means polarisation is set to endure. </p>
<p>This will happen at two levels. Polarisation will likely deepen between the two parties, making bipartisan decision-making on COVID-19, China, climate change and the national debt impossible. </p>
<p>And the rift between the two wings of the GOP will likely widen, making a return to civility and compromise more nostalgic than real. The party looks set to be a noisy voice of discordant protest – “This election was stolen!” – rather than a key force of conservative renewal.</p>
<p>There is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/us/politics/trump-election-republicans.html">already evidence</a> of division within the GOP over whether to support Trump’s claims of electoral fraud, with many choosing to remain silent rather than pick a side.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-still-enjoys-huge-support-among-evangelical-voters-and-its-not-only-because-of-abortion-148174">Trump still enjoys huge support among evangelical voters — and it's not only because of abortion</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>4) Despite being the party that <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/american-civil-war/emancipation-proclamation">liberated African Americans from slavery</a> after the Civil War, the Republicans remain too white and too rural today. </p>
<p>These twin demographics are in <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-white-majority-will-soon-disappear-forever-115894">long-term decline</a>, which makes replicating Trump’s electoral success on the national stage a losing game. As long as Trump’s brand of ethnic nationalism and white identity politics endures, Republicans will find it hard to build the governing coalitions necessary for national power. </p>
<p>The GOP needs to appeal more to non-whites in the cities and suburbs. Trumpism complicates that task.</p>
<p>5) If the party can’t reach more diverse voters, this creates a climate where conservatism is increasingly depicted by its opponents as illegitimate and politically incorrect. </p>
<p>Public discourse will mutate further into a shouting match of the extremes. The reasonableness and common sense so crucial to the conservative disposition will struggle to be heard.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368182/original/file-20201109-13-7ebsja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368182/original/file-20201109-13-7ebsja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368182/original/file-20201109-13-7ebsja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368182/original/file-20201109-13-7ebsja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368182/original/file-20201109-13-7ebsja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368182/original/file-20201109-13-7ebsja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368182/original/file-20201109-13-7ebsja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biden and Trump supporters frequently clashed during the race.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jeff Swinger/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Five reasons to be cheerful</h2>
<p>1) Significant parts of the political and judicial systems <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/05/us/us-election-results/jon-ossoffs-campaign-is-confident-georgia-senate-race-is-headed-for-a-runoff-as-perdue-drops-below-50-percent">look likely</a> to remain in conservative hands. </p>
<p>The Republicans have a good chance of retaining control of the Senate (depending on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/07/us/politics/georgia-senate-runoff-explainer.html">two run-off elections in Georgia in January</a>), and they have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-republicans-women-trump/2020/11/07/a6f4ee80-205b-11eb-90dd-abd0f7086a91_story.html">strengthened their minority in the House</a>. </p>
<p>With Amy Coney Barrett’s recent appointment, the Supreme Court also has <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-ways-a-6-3-supreme-court-would-be-different-146558">six conservative-leaning justices</a> (against three liberals). </p>
<p>As a result of all this, conservatism will remain a vital institutional component of American politics. </p>
<p>2) Despite Trump’s loss, there was still a strong Republican vote among those who feel they’ve been ignored or forgotten by the Democratic Party.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2018/10/08/wealth-america-household-income-richest-poorest-states/38051359/">poorest states</a> in the union generally voted GOP, while the richest went Democratic. This trend has been evident for some time, but was affirmed in the election. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368184/original/file-20201109-21-vrzyo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368184/original/file-20201109-21-vrzyo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368184/original/file-20201109-21-vrzyo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368184/original/file-20201109-21-vrzyo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368184/original/file-20201109-21-vrzyo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368184/original/file-20201109-21-vrzyo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368184/original/file-20201109-21-vrzyo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump galvanised Republican voters like few candidates before.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Evan Vucci/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And though <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/11/politics/election-analysis-exit-polls-2016-2020/">Biden made some inroads</a> among white voters without college degrees, their support for Trump remained strong. He won <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2020/exit-polls/presidential-election-exit-polls/">six in ten of those voters nationally</a>, according to The Washington Post exit poll.</p>
<p>Expect Republicans to hone their working-class appeal as they build toward taking back the White House (with or without Trump) in 2024.</p>
<p>3) A white demographic decline need not spell disaster for the GOP. Despite his dog-whistle racism, Trump performed better than expected among Black voters. According to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html">The New York Times</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2020/exit-polls/presidential-election-exit-polls/">Post</a> exit polls, which took into account early voting, nearly one in five Black men voted for Trump.</p>
<p>He also laid to rest the canard that Latino and Asian voters are the exclusive preserve of the Democratic Party. Trump <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-exitpoll/trump-gains-with-latinos-loses-some-white-voters-exit-polls-idUSKBN27J2T9">fared better</a> among both demographic groups than expected, particularly among Latino voters in Florida and Texas, where he <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2020/exit-polls/presidential-election-exit-polls/">increased his vote margin from 2016</a>.</p>
<p>Overall, Trump won 26% of the non-white vote, according to the Times and Post exit polls. The trick now is to turn this into a lasting multiracial conservative voting bloc. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368183/original/file-20201109-15-ohzwzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368183/original/file-20201109-15-ohzwzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368183/original/file-20201109-15-ohzwzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368183/original/file-20201109-15-ohzwzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368183/original/file-20201109-15-ohzwzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368183/original/file-20201109-15-ohzwzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368183/original/file-20201109-15-ohzwzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cuban-American voters turned out in large numbers for Trump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lynne Sladky/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>4) Albeit crudely, Trump has tapped into a fervour for conservative politics among large sections of the voting public that his predecessors could not and that his successors can draw strength from. </p>
<p>He <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/07/election-pollsters-2020-reckoning.html">outperformed</a> the pre-election polls in key battleground states when everything from an economic recession to a global pandemic suggested he would struggle. </p>
<p>Getting past Trump’s long shadow will be a central issue for Republicans — he is <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/trump-2024-election-campaign-biden-b1722521.html">already talking</a> about running again in 2024. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-exactly-is-trumps-base-why-white-working-class-voters-could-be-key-to-the-us-election-147267">Who exactly is Trump's 'base'? Why white, working-class voters could be key to the US election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>5) The Biden win obscures how riven progressive politics have become. </p>
<p>Biden was a compromise candidate — the only one acceptable to both the progressive and moderate wings of his party. </p>
<p>A small but not insignificant number of Biden voters were simply voting against Trump. Of the respondents in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html">The New York Times exit polls</a>, a quarter of voters said their vote was mainly “against the opponent” (instead of “for their candidate”) — and of these voters, more than two-thirds went for Biden.</p>
<p>Biden will have to learn how to bargain not just with Republicans in Congress, but with his own side. This task would be exhausting for any leader, not least for the oldest man to ever hold the office.</p>
<p>Trump has increased the appeal of American conservatism, even as he has complicated its meaning. Republicans and Democrats must now find a way of appealing to a forgotten American middle class that Trump energised. That could be his most enduring and positive legacy.</p>
<p>That is good for democracy. And if Republicans can make this support routine, it could be good for conservatism and the diversity of ideas on which the American experiment itself depends.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Correction: This story has been amended to correct the wording of The New York Times exit poll question on who voted mainly “for their candidate” or “against his opponent” and remove the reference to percentage of GOP voters who voted for Trump.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149526/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy J. Lynch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump has increased the appeal of American conservatism, even as he has complicated its meaning. His shadow will no doubt continue to loom large over the Republican Party.Timothy J. Lynch, Associate Professor in American Politics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1470842020-10-19T12:22:29Z2020-10-19T12:22:29ZHow conservative groups will advance their agendas before a Supreme Court with Amy Coney Barrett<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363734/original/file-20201015-21-va7tke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C7%2C4681%2C3415&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A lot of interests want to influence the cases that come before the Supreme Court and how they're decided.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/protesters-supporting-the-confirmation-of-amy-coney-barrett-news-photo/1229085184?adppopup=true">Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the Supreme Court has highlighted the ways interest groups use the legal system to pursue their goals. Barrett is <a href="https://fedsoc.org/contributors/amy-barrett-1">closely</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/supreme-court-barrett-finances/2020/09/28/6c4a1e10-01d7-11eb-b7ed-141dd88560ea_story.html">tied</a> to the conservative Federalist Society, whose members have played a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/leonard-leo-federalists-society-courts/">major role</a> in President Donald Trump’s judicial appointments. Organizations who support and oppose her confirmation are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/27/us/politics/amy-coney-barrett-confirmation-battle.html">intensely lobbying</a> senators and the public. </p>
<p>Like other justices, if confirmed, Barrett will continually face <a href="https://www.arnoldporter.com/%7E/media/files/perspectives/publications/2015/08/record-breaking-term-for-amicus-curiae-in-suprem__/files/publication/fileattachment/recordbreakingtermforamicuscuriaeinsupremecourtr__.pdf?">pressure campaigns</a> from groups trying to shape the direction of American law.</p>
<p>I have extensively studied how special interests use the court as a public policy battleground, including in my book, “<a href="https://blogs.umass.edu/pmcollins/friends-of-the-supreme-court-interest-groups-and-judicial-decision-making-oxford-university-press/">Friends of the Supreme Court: Interest Groups and Judicial Decision Making</a>.” Here’s what to expect from interest groups before a Supreme Court with a Justice Barrett.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363749/original/file-20201015-19-fhs5qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Judge Amy Coney Barrett gesturing with her hands at her confirmation hearing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363749/original/file-20201015-19-fhs5qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363749/original/file-20201015-19-fhs5qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363749/original/file-20201015-19-fhs5qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363749/original/file-20201015-19-fhs5qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363749/original/file-20201015-19-fhs5qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363749/original/file-20201015-19-fhs5qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363749/original/file-20201015-19-fhs5qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill on Oct. 14.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supreme-court-nominee-judge-amy-coney-barrett-testifies-news-photo/1229075234?adppopup=true">Andrew Caballero-Reynolds-Pool/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Friends of the court</h2>
<p>The main way special interests participate in the courts is by filing <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/amicus_curiae">amicus curiae</a> (“friend of the court”) briefs in cases that intersect with their interests. In these legal documents, groups take positions to persuade the justices to endorse their economic, political and social interests.</p>
<p>Although amicus briefs are filed in almost all appellate courts in the United States, they are especially prevalent in the U.S. Supreme Court. Almost every case before the court has at least one amicus brief, and there is an average of about <a href="https://www.arnoldporter.com/%7E/media/files/perspectives/publications/2015/08/record-breaking-term-for-amicus-curiae-in-suprem__/files/publication/fileattachment/recordbreakingtermforamicuscuriaeinsupremecourtr__.pdf?">12 briefs per case</a>. High-profile disputes, such as those involving abortion, affirmative action, health care and same-sex marriage, have neared or topped <a href="https://www.arnoldporter.com/-/media/files/perspectives/publications/2016/09/in-unusual-term-big-year-for-amicus-curiae-at-the-supreme-court.pdf">100</a> amicus briefs.</p>
<p>Amicus briefs are not cheap – they can cost up to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/us/politics/lobby-groups-blanket-supreme-court-on-obama-health-care-plan.html">US$100,000</a> because of the fees related to attorneys’ time and expenses to research and prepare them. And the court’s <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/supct/rule_37">rules</a> can be manipulated to obscure who pays for these briefs. This has led to <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2019/01/30/sheldon-whitehouse-takes-aim-at-funding-disclosure-for-court-briefs/">allegations</a> that groups are purposely hiding the wealthy donors who fund these briefs to further the donors’ political agendas in the court. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.bradleyfdn.org/">Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation</a>, a charity that promotes conservative causes, <a href="https://harvardjol.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/17/2020/05/Sen.-Whitehouse_Dark-Money.pdf">funded</a> many of the interest groups who filed amicus briefs in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/16-1466">Janus v. AFSCME</a>. This 2018 decision weakened the power of labor unions by severely limiting their ability to collect fees from nonunion members used for collective bargaining. </p>
<p>Amicus briefs <a href="https://lexforipllc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/collins.pdf">work</a>. Justices are <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1961752?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">more</a> <a href="https://www.rchss.sinica.edu.tw/cibs/law/1.%20Monthly%20Seminar%20Since%202008/Papers/2010/20101222/Chang%20Chiang%20Hsieh_US%20Supreme%20Court%20Agenda%20Setting%20and%20the%20Role%20of%20Litigant%20Status..pdf">likely</a> to decide to review cases accompanied by amicus briefs. Justices tend to decide in favor of the <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.472.8484&rep=rep1&type=pdf">litigant</a> with the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912906298535">most</a> amicus briefs on its side when deciding cases. In their opinions, justices frequently <a href="https://scholarship.law.marquette.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1567&context=facpub">cite</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/lasr.12166">borrow language</a> from amicus briefs. </p>
<p>Importantly, some organizations who file amicus briefs are more privileged than others. The justices are deferential to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/lasr.12166">high-profile</a>, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43654917?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">elite</a> interest groups, such as the <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/jlp20&div=9&id=&page=">American Civil Liberties Union</a> and the <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/ucinlr87&div=9&id=&page=">Chamber of Commerce</a>, particularly if those groups share their ideological preferences. The justices tend to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43654917?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">vote</a> in favor of the positions advocated by these organizations and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/lasr.12166">adopt</a> their legal arguments more often than lesser-known groups.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363753/original/file-20201015-19-g7bp7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Group of people carrying boxes with the amicus brief to the Supreme Court." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363753/original/file-20201015-19-g7bp7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363753/original/file-20201015-19-g7bp7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363753/original/file-20201015-19-g7bp7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363753/original/file-20201015-19-g7bp7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363753/original/file-20201015-19-g7bp7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363753/original/file-20201015-19-g7bp7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363753/original/file-20201015-19-g7bp7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fred Sainz (L) from the Human Rights Campaign and Jim Obergefell (R), plaintiff in the case Obergefell et al v. Hodges, deliver to the U.S. Supreme Court March 6, 2015 the Human Rights Campaign’s amicus brief in six marriage equality cases.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fred-sainz-from-the-human-rights-campaign-and-jim-news-photo/465378306?adppopup=true">Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The conservative wishlist</h2>
<p>If confirmed, the addition of Amy Coney Barrett will give conservative justices a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/26/politics/supreme-court-conservative/index.html">6-3 majority</a> on the court. Although both liberal and conservative groups file amicus briefs in roughly <a href="https://blogs.umass.edu/pmcollins/friends-of-the-supreme-court-interest-groups-and-judicial-decision-making-oxford-university-press/">equal numbers</a>, this will <a href="https://www.ncsc.org/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/15432/determinants-of.pdf">motivate</a> conservative interest groups to push their agendas before a sympathetic court. Liberal groups will be left trying to <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1532673X08328674">defend</a> their past victories.</p>
<p>What does this conservative agenda look like? First up will be dismantling the <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/california-v-texas/">Affordable Care Act</a> and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/us/supreme-court-voting-rights-climate-change.html">Voting Rights Act</a>, which are already on the court’s docket. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/3-ways-a-6-3-supreme-court-would-be-different-146558">More long-term goals</a> will include restricting access to abortion, limiting the rights of the criminally accused, halting the expansion of LGBTQ+ rights, increasing the power of business and expanding the scope of the Second Amendment, which protects an individual’s right to bear arms.</p>
<p>High-profile groups leading this conservative charge will include <a href="http://www.aele.org/amicus.html">Americans for Effective Law Enforcement</a>, the <a href="https://www.cato.org/about/cato-amicus-program">Cato Institute</a>, the <a href="https://www.chamberlitigation.com/what-we-do/SCOTUS-amicus?filing=Amicus+Curiae">Chamber of Commerce</a>, the <a href="https://cjlf.org/program/briefs.htm">Criminal Justice Legal Foundation</a> and the <a href="https://www.wlf.org/litigation/">Washington Legal Foundation</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<h2>What are the tactics?</h2>
<p>The first step toward achieving these goals will be to influence the Supreme Court’s agenda. </p>
<p>Each year, the court receives petitions to review about 8,000 cases, but hears fewer than <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/reference/educational-resources/supreme-court-procedure/">80 cases</a>. To shape the docket, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/03/us/03bar.html">interest and advocacy groups will orchestrate test</a> cases by carefully selecting individuals to challenge policies they oppose. Once those cases are appealed to the Supreme Court, some groups file amicus briefs at the agenda-setting stage urging the justices to review a case. </p>
<p>Then these groups typically file a second brief at the decision-making stage. At this point, other organizations also file amicus briefs to lobby the justices to support the conservative outcome in the case, often <a href="https://www.virginialawreview.org/sites/virginialawreview.org/files/Larsen%26Devins_Online.pdf">working</a> with the attorneys representing the conservative litigant. This provides the attorneys with the opportunity to <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/judica97&div=51&id=&page=">coordinate</a> their legal arguments to appeal to the conservative justices on the court.</p>
<p>For example, in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2007/07-290">District of Columbia v. Heller</a>, which established the individual right to keep and bear arms in 2008, Heller’s lawyers <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/08/AR2008030802243.html">coordinated</a> with conservative interest groups on the content of their amicus briefs. These briefs contained arguments from historical, legal, linguistic and statistical <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/jfpp20&div=6&id=&page=">perspectives</a>, among others. </p>
<p>Liberals follow this playbook, too. One example: Before she was on the court, <a href="https://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=2253&context=facpub">Ruth Bader Ginsburg</a> filed an amicus brief on behalf of the liberal American Civil Liberties Union in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1976/75-628">Craig v. Boren</a> and advised Craig’s attorneys. This led to the landmark 1976 precedent that established how the court evaluates claims of gender discrimination. </p>
<p>In their briefs, conservative groups will advance theories of judging known as textualism and originalism. These closely linked approaches hold that the best way to interpret the Constitution is according to how it was <a href="https://fedsoc.org/no86/module/originalism-and-determining-meaning/video/2">understood</a> at the time of its ratification. </p>
<p>For example, a judge might ask herself: How would the informed public in 1791 understand what “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion” means? With a majority of justices on the court <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/ideas-with-consequences-9780199385522?cc=us&lang=en&">sympathetic</a> to these theories of constitutional interpretation, textualist and originalist amicus briefs are likely to be particularly effective.</p>
<p>If successful, this process will repeat itself over the years and in many different cases. This is necessary for interest groups because it takes a long time to achieve legal change, since the <a href="https://cpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/sites.uwm.edu/dist/6/132/files/2016/09/Reddick-and-Benesh-2000-w2z93z.pdf">justices are generally reluctant</a> to overturn their previous decisions. Instead, the justices tend to chip away at them over time.</p>
<p>For example, the American Civil Liberties Union was successful <a href="https://scholarlycommons.law.case.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1440&context=caselrev">convincing</a> the court to apply the exclusionary rule to the states in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1960/236">Mapp v. Ohio</a> in 1961. This rule holds that evidence police gather illegally is inadmissible in a trial. Subsequently, conservative Supreme Court justices have followed conservative <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9930.1987.tb00404.x">groups’</a> arguments by carving out numerous <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/exclusionary_rule">exceptions</a> to the exclusionary rule. Although Mapp is still the law of the land, it is a shell of its former self.</p>
<p>With a 6-3 majority of conservative justices on the court – five of whom are 70 years old or younger – this strategy can be expected to continue for decades to come. This will give conservative groups and the justices who agree with them plenty of time to mold American law in their image.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147084/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul M. Collins, Jr. received funding from the National Science Foundation for his work on amicus curiae briefs. He has consulted with the Office of United States Senator Sheldon Whitehouse and the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Terrorism. </span></em></p>Special interests use the court as a public policy battleground. Here’s a rundown of how that works and which groups are likely to appear before a conservative court with Amy Coney Barrett on it.Paul M. Collins Jr., Professor of Legal Studies and Political Science, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1471502020-10-13T17:59:09Z2020-10-13T17:59:09ZThe underappreciated yet critical Catholic vote in the 2020 US presidential election<p>In the aftermath of the 2016 US presidential election, political analysts focused considerable attention on white Evangelicals’ support for Donald Trump. </p>
<p>Less examined was the critical role of the <a href="https://www.thecatholicthing.org/2016/11/12/rustbelt-catholics-put-trump-over-the-top">Catholic vote in the three Great Lakes states</a> that tipped the Electoral College in Trump’s favor – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump won each of those states by narrow margins, but with strong Catholic support, especially among white Catholics. The evangelical vote generally goes to Republican candidates, while the Catholic vote, usually up for grabs, turned in the GOP nominees’ favor as well. </p>
<p>In 2020, could the Catholic vote once again be a key to the outcome of presidential campaign? As Professor Ryan P. Burge writes in <a href="https://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2020/september/trump-biden-white-catholic-swing-vote-evangelical-poll.html"><em>Christianity Today</em></a>, to win re-election, Trump might be able to afford to lose some evangelical votes, but he definitely cannot afford to lose Catholic votes.</p>
<h2>Catholic voters in the United States</h2>
<p>There are about 51 million adult Catholics in the United States, representing almost 25% of the national electorate. Since the 1980s, the US national vote and the Catholic vote have followed each other closely, but 2016 was a notable exception: Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote, but <a href="https://www.ncregister.com/news/election-2016-breakdown-of-the-catholic-vote">Trump won the majority of Catholic voters</a>.</p>
<p>Two factors helped Trump with the Catholic vote: first, his populist appeals to the white working class in the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and second, the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/12/22/506347254/latinos-will-never-vote-for-a-republican-and-other-myths-about-hispanics-from-20">absence of the much-anticipated “Latino surge”</a>. The Latino vote decreased by about 3% compared to 2012 and in addition, Donald Trump received about 10% more of the Latino Catholic vote than did Mitt Romney in 2012.</p>
<p>But Trump also benefited from a long trend in the <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2020/02/20/democrats-lost-white-christians-can-they-win-them-back">white Christian vote for the Republican Party</a>. </p>
<p>In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney won 78% of white Evangelicals, whereas in 2008 Republican John McCain received 73%. Trump fared even better in 2016, with 81%. In 2008 and 2012, 56% of white Catholics voted for the GOP presidential nominee and that percentage increased to 60% in 2016.</p>
<h2>Is there still a “Catholic vote”?</h2>
<p>Given these varied results, it is hard to imagine the Catholic vote as a monolithic force, and indeed, it remains strong split between the major parties. However, it is important to understand the diversity of US Catholics and the challenges that any candidate faces when seeking to appeal to them.</p>
<p>For many years, Catholics were a reliable part of the <a href="https://www.tutor2u.net/politics/reference/new-deal-coalition">New Deal coalition</a> that once anchored the Democratic Party. </p>
<p>Since the 1980s, however, their vote has been split largely due to two factors: economic success and the abortion issue. Once composed of an immigrant underclass that moved to the city centers, joined labor unions and voted for the Democratic Party, second- and third-generation Catholics have become more educated and economically successful, and many settled in the suburbs and became more conservative. </p>
<p>Beginning in the 1970s, with the support of abortion rights by Democrats (including 1972 presidential nominee George McGovern) and the Supreme Court decision in <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Roe-v-Wade"><em>Roe v. Wade</em></a>, many Catholics came to feel that the Democratic Party no longer represented them. </p>
<p>To capitalize on this trend, Republican strategists targeted Catholics in the Northeast and Midwest and white Evangelicals in the South on moral values. In the 1980s, the GOP successfully wooed “pro-life” voters and many Catholics began to either cross party lines or become independent. From 1980 to 2000, only one Democratic presidential candidate won a strong majority of the Catholic vote: <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/sites/default/files/2018-07/84045.pdf">Bill Clinton, when he was re-elected in 1996</a>.</p>
<h2>Do Catholics still vote along religious lines?</h2>
<p>Catholic identity was important in the past. In 1960, Catholic support was overwhelming for Democrat John F. Kennedy, a Catholic. But as time went on, that identity <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/religion/news/2012/08/24/33873/the-state-of-the-catholic-vote-in-2012-it-aint-what-it-used-to-be/">mattered less and less</a>. By 2004, the next time a major party presidential nominee was a Catholic, Democrat John Kerry, he lost the Catholic vote to a Methodist, George W. Bush.</p>
<p>Religious beliefs are thus not the dominant influence on the voting behavior of most US Catholics and there is no single political-based organization that mobilizes them as a voting bloc. </p>
<p>The church hierarchy in the United States is usually reluctant to offer signals of voting preferences, although some bishops try. And even when certain bishops offer such signals, few Catholic voters listen. Indeed, there is no evidence that church leaders are in any way effective at delivering Catholic votes for one political party or the other. </p>
<p>As for the possible impact of Pope Francis, despite his <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/03/three-quarters-of-u-s-catholics-view-pope-francis-favorably-though-partisan-differences-persist/">overall popularity with US Catholics</a>, there is no evidence that his voice has any impact at all on how they vote. Indeed, in 2016 the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/08/pope-francis-walls-bridges-donald-trump">Pope criticized Trump’s proposed border wall with Mexico</a>, but Trump still won the overall Catholic vote.</p>
<h2>Is Trump losing Catholics’ support?</h2>
<p>Like the rest of the electorate, Catholics have become increasingly independent of the political parties. The trend among partisans is increased Republicanism among white Catholics and increased support for Democrats among new immigrant, non-white Catholics. </p>
<p>While the fortunes of the GOP improved as some Catholics abandoned the Democratic Party, there is now some evidence that they’re moving away from Trump – and that could potentially be his undoing. Recent data from Public Religion Research Institute show significant declines in white Catholics’ favorability ratings for Trump. </p>
<p>The immigration debate in particular has opened a fissure in the relationship between Trump and many Catholics. While many Catholics who achieved economic success and moved to the suburbs do not think politically like their parents and grandparents, they still remember how the earlier generations came to America and thus may sympathize with the plights of immigrants today, especially Latinos.</p>
<p>Trump’s anti-immigration campaign rhetoric has also translated into policies that are deeply offensive to many Latino voters, who have even stronger motivation to oppose him than in 2016.</p>
<h2>Echos of 2016, but differences too</h2>
<p>Organizations such as the <a href="https://twitter.com/PewReligion/status/1294271829784363014">Pew Research Center</a> project that the vote of religious groups in 2020 should broadly match those in 2016. For example, data from the weekly <a href="https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/XJLZIN">Data for Progress</a> survey suggests that the voting intentions of mainline (non-evangelical) white Protestants will most likely be comparable to the 2016 data. </p>
<p>Democrat Hillary Clinton received 41% of the vote in this bloc, and Joe Biden should fare just as well. Trump currently is polling around 47% for this group, with about 10% undecided. It is possible that the mainline Protestant vote does not deviate much from 2016.</p>
<p>Thus, for Trump to repeat his 2016 victory, he needs to regain the cohesion and the heavy turnout of the white conservative Christian vote that sent him to the White House. While few doubt his ability to mobilize white evangelicals, the white Catholic vote is crucial. The <a href="https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/XJLZIN">Data for Progress</a> analysis shows the potential for a significant drop in support for Trump by both groups. </p>
<p>A similar finding regarding white Catholics emerged from the survey by the <a href="https://www.prri.org/research/trump-favorability-white-catholic-and-non-college-americans-national-unrest-protests/">Public Religion Research Institute</a>. For Biden, the key to success is reducing his losses among white conservative Christians. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/20/913667325/how-joe-bidens-faith-shapes-his-politics">Being Catholic</a> himself, there’s a chance that he could even win the Catholic vote overall, but that would happen with a strong Latino Catholic majority and turnout for him.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1308167387791921158"}"></div></p>
<p>Despite its critical role in the US elections, the Catholic vote remains in the shadow of the many analyses of evangelical voters. That is a mistake, as Catholic voters can be a key to the outcomes of national elections, especially given the concentrations of Catholics in many of the most competitive states in the Electoral College. As we move toward Election Day, media and other campaign observers would do well to keep a close eye on the all-important Catholic vote.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Blandine Chelini-Pont and Mark J. Rozell are co-editors (with Marie Gayte) of the book Catholics and US Politics After the 2016 Elections: Understanding the “Swing Vote”. Palgrave MacMillan Press, 2018)</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147150/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won 60% of the American Catholic vote. This year, it will be difficult for him to obtain a similar score, and that could have immense consequences.Mark J. Rozell, Founding Dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason UniversityBlandine Chelini-Pont, Professeur des Universités en histoire contemporaine, Aix-Marseille Université (AMU)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1455752020-09-03T18:13:32Z2020-09-03T18:13:32ZDonald Trump’s heroic fantasy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356372/original/file-20200903-18-gtr728.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1497%2C783&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump in front of Mount Rushmore in Keystone, South Dakota, July 3, 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Saul Loeb/AFP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On July 3 and 4, US president Donald Trump gave two major speeches, first at <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-south-dakotas-2020-mount-rushmore-fireworks-celebration-keystone-south-dakota/">Mount Rushmore</a> and then at the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-2020-salute-america/">White House</a>. In them he focused not on the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/virus-rages-us-economy-struggles-sustain-recovery-n1238693">struggling US economy</a>,
the <a href="https://apnews.com/bcab5f132b190c5c2b61a750cce33343">soaring unemployment rate</a>,
or the raging <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fcases-in-us.html#cases">Covid-19 pandemic</a>, but on statues and the purported mortal danger of the left. In his speeches, the president used the word “hero” a total of 24 times, and announced an executive order to create a brand-new monument called the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Garden_of_American_Heroes">“National Garden of American Heroes”</a>.</p>
<p>These speeches were praised by Trump’s supporters, particularly the first – the <a href="https://humanevents.com/2020/07/10/the-mount-rushmore-speech-was-president-trumps-best-ever/">“best speech of his political career”</a>, a <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/07/president-trump-mount-rushmore-speech-triumph/">“triumph”</a> and a <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/president-trumps-most-important-speech-opinion-1515721">“profound speech”</a>. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, never shy of rhetoric, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/president-trumps-most-important-speech-opinion-1515721">claimed</a> that it would make Donald Trump </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“as essential to the preservation of freedom in America for the 21st century as President Abraham Lincoln was in the 19th century and President Ronald Reagan was in the 20th century”.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>On the face of it, this was one of the occasional performances that earn Trump the term <em>presidential</em>: he didn’t go off script, he praised the Founding Fathers and he appealed to America’s core value of freedom. </p>
<p>But while both speeches evoked culture and identity by tapping into the tradition of glorifying presidential heroes, Trump also stoked fear by referencing the sometimes violent protests following the <a href="https://theconversation.com/police-violence-in-the-united-states-what-lies-behind-the-bad-apples-narrative-139931">May 25 death of George Floyd</a>. One goal was clearly to change the conversation <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/as-statues-of-founding-fathers-topple-debate-rages-over-where-protesters-should-draw-the-line/2020/07/07/5de7c956-bfb7-11ea-b4f6-cb39cd8940fb_story.html">away from the Confederacy</a> and its leaders to appeal to still-persuadable suburban conservative voters. For <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/07/05/trumps-mount-rushmore-speech-showed-why-our-battle-over-history-is-so-fraught/">all of its controversy</a>, and even because of it, Mount Rushmore was the perfect backdrop.</p>
<h2>The hero: a vehicle for conservate values</h2>
<p>Despite the use of the heroic narrative by <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442205604/Honored-Guests-Citizen-Heroes-and-the-State-of-the-Union">all presidents since Ronald Reagan</a>, democrats or republicans, it is inherently conservative. Its moral is that solutions to problems – even political ones – depend on extraordinary individuals, not on collective action. </p>
<p>It often tends to promote patriotism and nostalgia for an idealized era (the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greatest_Generation">“Greatest Generation”</a>). It makes sacrifice for the homeland seem noble and heroic, thanks to metaphors of moral accountability. Trump remarked that “we pay tribute to generations of American heroes whose names are etched on our monuments and memorials” and have to be “worthy of their sacrifice.” Heroes are most often defined by the way a society sees its male and female ideals – in this case, favoring action and physical courage over diplomacy and compromise. Heroes exemplify what <a href="http://www.wwcd.org/issues/Lakoff.html">linguist George Lakoff</a> identified as a “strict father” type as opposed to the more liberal model of a “nurturing parent.” Trump engaged this conservative idea of the hero when he said,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Our children should be taught to love their country, honor our history, and respect our great American flag.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another important aspect of the heroic narrative is its binary structure. The “we” versus “they” is an illustration of the greater battle between good versus evil. There is no gray area and no room for nuance: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The patriots who built our country were not villains. They were heroes whose courageous deeds improved the Earth beyond measure.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In this worldview, moral relativism threatens to diminish the true heroic narrative:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Every virtue is obscured, every motive is twisted, every fact is distorted, and every flaw is magnified until the history is purged and the record is disfigured beyond all recognition.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A threatening American “Other”</h2>
<p>Heroes exist in adversity. They are an idealized vision of a “Self” that stands against a threatening “Other.” In presidential discourse, national heroes help define national identity. President Trump’s heroes, however, face a different enemy – other Americans. <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/president-trumps-most-important-speech-opinion-1515721">Newt Gingrich</a> praised this gambit, calling the Mount Rushmore speech </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“the clearest statement against a domestic threat to American freedom ever given by a modern national leader”.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This process of “Othering” citizens of the United States is similar to what candidate Trump did with immigrants in 2016. He activated the trope of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-trumps-america-immigrants-are-modern-day-savage-indians-99809">“violent savage”</a>, a familiar American enemy, by calling out the “angry mobs” that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“unleash a wave of violent crime in our cities […] the radical left, the Marxists, the anarchists, the agitators, the looters [and the] left-wing cultural revolution”.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The point is of course to stoke fear. Trump conflates the “liberal democrats” with “totalitarianism” so as to make it “alien to our culture and our values”, in the same way as a candidate in 2015 and 2016 he conflated immigrants with the gang violence of MS-13. Somehow, “Sleepy Joe” Biden is going to plunge America into hellish, apocalyptic future.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1283429106768662528"}"></div></p>
<h2>Culture is identity</h2>
<p>Heroes, monuments and statues are expressions of a particular cultural identity. The right may have political power, but the left has enormous cultural power. The right has ceded ground on nearly all the major cultural issues of the culture wars since the 1960s – race, gay rights, immigration, secularism. The losses have <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4f60f812-730e-471c-9804-82d35a543ba2">hurt deeply</a> and, rightly or wrongly, many conservatives feel besieged by progressive forces. It is a view shared by Attorney General William Barr, who said in an <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-william-p-barr-delivers-remarks-law-school-and-de-nicola-center-ethics">October 11 speech</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“This is not decay; it is organized destruction. Secularists, and their allies among the ‘progressives’, marshaled all the forces of mass communications, popular culture, the entertainment industry, and academia in an unremitting assault on religion and traditional values. These instruments are used not only to affirmatively promote secular orthodoxy but also drown out and silence opposing voices, and to attack viciously and hold up to ridicule any dissenters.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In Barr’s remarks, “organized destruction” suggests intent to harm. Once motives are impugned, there is no more good-faith argument to make. Everything becomes a political weapon, including a <a href="https://www.mediamatters.org/coronavirus-covid-19/how-fox-news-helped-turn-masks-another-culture-war-flashpoint">piece of cloth</a>. A mask meant to save lives becomes an assault on personal freedom.</p>
<h2>Redeeming shame and humiliation</h2>
<p>Drawing on affect theory, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14791420.2019.1667503">Donovan Schaefer</a> and <a href="https://www.plutobooks.com/9780745337913/under-the-cover-of-chaos/">Lawrence Grossberg</a> have argued that what unifies Donald Trump’s [white] followers is not a particular economic or conservative policy but rather a deep sense of humiliation and shame over the loss of cultural hegemony. They share with Donald Trump “the terror of the humiliation of being a victim,” which he drew on in his speech:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Those who seek to lie about the past in order to gain power in the present […] want us to be ashamed of who we are [and] their goal is demolition.” (July 4)</p>
<p>“They think the American people are weak and soft and submissive […] [and want] Americans to forget our pride and our great dignity.” (July 3)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Even the president’s foreign policy is about shame and humiliation:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“We want to be respected by the rest of the world, not taken advantage of by the rest of the world, which has gone on for decade after decade.” (July 4)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>When he insults and humiliates their shared enemies, Trump has given these “forgotten Americans” a sense of redemption by promising to “make [their] America great again” by breaking the new cultural norms and by giving aggrieved whites a sense of revenge. Ultimately, he has turned the presidential bully pulpit into a bully’s pulpit. But the very things that shock mainstream and progressive media and, frankly, most Americans, is what makes Trump look like a savior in the eyes of his hard-core supporters.</p>
<h2>Donald, the fake hero</h2>
<p>Newt Gingrich called out the shared enemies after Trump’s performance on July 3. The president, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/president-trumps-most-important-speech-opinion-1515721">he wrote</a>, has stood “defiantly in defense of those values despite the ridicule and hostility of the elites, news media, academics.” The next day Trump called himself a protector who “will preserve our history, our heritage, and our great heroes” (July 3) and “defend, protect, and preserve American way of life” (July 4).</p>
<p>As I <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/lisa/9861">have written elsewhere</a>, the heroic myth is ultimately about power and virtue, power being kept in check by self-restraint and submission to civic duty. Donald Trump has redefined heroism by making it solely about power. For Trump, “American freedom” is not first and foremost about democracy but about “American greatness.” His frequent Nixonian references to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-by-the-president-39/">“law and order”</a> are actually about force and power. Many of the terms repeated in his speeches build on these themes: <em>tall, great, greatness, strong, respect, stand up, the flag, men and women in uniform, the Second Amendment, law and order, law enforcement, winning</em>, and so forth.</p>
<p>The difficulty now is that the dissonance between Trump’s rhetoric and reality has been made particularly obvious by Covid-19. Part of the power of the president is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rhetorical_Presidency">rhetorical</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Performativity">performative</a>. So it depends on his ability to make the country believe something good about itself. To unify the country would require that the president put himself above the fray and exercise the virtues of restraint as well as compassion and empathy, especially in these times of crisis.</p>
<p>With Trump’s support eroding <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/30/publics-mood-turns-grim-trump-trails-biden-on-most-personal-traits-major-issues/">even among his once-stalwart base</a>, it’s perhaps time to admit that the strategy that gave him victory in 2016 may very well be his doom in 2020.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145575/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>An analysis of Donald Trump’s speech at Mount Rushmore reveals the underbelly of his constant use of heroic rhetoric.Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, Assistant lecturer, Université Paris Nanterre – Université Paris LumièresLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1442032020-08-14T10:50:39Z2020-08-14T10:50:39ZFreedom of choice: are Indonesian women caught in a policy trap?<p><em>This article is part of a series to commemorate Indonesian Independence Day on August 17.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Women were central to the fall of Soeharto, and there is no doubt that women have continued to experience <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/how-women-are-transforming-indonesia">important gains since Reformasi</a> began in 1998. </p>
<p>Indonesia has already had a female president, and currently has a female foreign minister in Retno Marsudi and a finance minister in Sri Mulyani. </p>
<p>They are, respectively, a world-class bureaucrat and an economic reformer. </p>
<p>Women, young and old, in villages and cities, are actively contributing to their families, communities and nation. </p>
<p><a href="https://pekka.or.id/blog/2020/04/23/laporan-tahun-2019-pekka/">They are sole heads of households</a>, socially active, volunteering and organising in many fields of life. </p>
<p>However, 75 years after independence, Indonesia still has significant gaps in equality. </p>
<p>In areas from the economy to social justice, women remain disadvantaged. For example, their participation rate in the labour market has been <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00074918.2018.1530727">largely unchanged</a> (at only about 51% of women aged 15 and older) in the past 20 years.</p>
<p>There are also the well-documented and significant issues of <a href="https://indonesiaatmelbourne.unimelb.edu.au/child-marriage-surges-amid-covid-19-and-growing-conservatism/">underage marriage for girls</a> and <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/bki/174/1/article-p24_2.xml?language=en">violence against women</a>. </p>
<p>I <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/trn.2019.14">examined</a> the rise of public piety and its impact on policy reform for equality in Indonesia over the past two decades.</p>
<p>Despite the measurable disadvantage of women, there is a trend in policy advocacy to advance religiously inspired policy agendas – some led by Islamic women – to push back progress and limit women’s freedom of choice. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352868/original/file-20200814-20-1sjgwk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352868/original/file-20200814-20-1sjgwk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352868/original/file-20200814-20-1sjgwk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352868/original/file-20200814-20-1sjgwk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352868/original/file-20200814-20-1sjgwk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352868/original/file-20200814-20-1sjgwk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352868/original/file-20200814-20-1sjgwk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352868/original/file-20200814-20-1sjgwk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation Indonesia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Religious conservatism and political Islam</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.pewforum.org/2018/06/13/how-religious-commitment-varies-by-country-among-people-of-all-ages/">Pew research</a> revealed in 2018 that Indonesians were highly religious. Some 93% of the population believe in religion and see it as an important aspect in their lives. </p>
<p>This is not necessarily in itself controversial. </p>
<p>However, what has become clear since Reformasi is a trend of politicians and diverse civil society actors – including faith-based and women’s organisations – <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/trans-trans-regional-and-national-studies-of-southeast-asia/article/rising-public-piety-and-the-status-of-women-in-indonesia-two-decades-after-reformasi/7676157EA18DB194320C44C49219ECC1">exploiting public piety</a> to advance a social agenda based on conservative religious norms. </p>
<p>As a result, there are many examples of the continuing encroachment of religion into public discourse, to the extent that it explains and indeed defines a whole social, economic, political and legal outlook. </p>
<p>Specifically, part of this agenda is the pursuit of a religiously inspired perspective founded upon the separation of social roles for men and women. </p>
<p>Women are, of course, implicated. </p>
<p>Prominent examples are the promotion of Muslim clothing, the growing popularity of the <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-07-02/indonesia-s-newest-gen-z-craze-marrying-someone-you-ve-never-even-dated">“Indonesia without dating”</a> movement, the promotion of polygamy, and calls to <a href="https://www.newmandala.org/an-anti-feminist-wave-in-indonesias-election/">denounce feminism</a> due to Islamic values. </p>
<p>This is <a href="https://theconversation.com/against-the-tide-why-womens-equality-remains-a-distant-dream-in-arab-countries-74410">a social trend taking place in many Muslim countries</a>, such as Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. </p>
<p>Where Islam is the hegemonic religion, women are clearly at risk of being forced to follow a singular form of Islam based on a patriarchal construction of the ideal Muslim woman. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352900/original/file-20200814-18-175o0f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352900/original/file-20200814-18-175o0f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352900/original/file-20200814-18-175o0f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352900/original/file-20200814-18-175o0f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352900/original/file-20200814-18-175o0f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352900/original/file-20200814-18-175o0f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352900/original/file-20200814-18-175o0f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352900/original/file-20200814-18-175o0f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation Indonesia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Activism against gender equality</h2>
<p>These examples of popular Islamic social movements show a voluntary commitment to a specific value set. </p>
<p>They signal a commitment to a total world view that entails particular roles and behaviours of women. </p>
<p>That some women have supported this shows that in Indonesia today women are seemingly capable of making choices about their roles in life and society. </p>
<p>The issue with this set of personal choices and collective action is that they have also formed the basis of efforts to influence society more broadly. </p>
<p>That is, it sits at the heart of challenges against policy initiatives intended to benefit women and to advance equality in political and legal forums. </p>
<p>A particular set of values identified with by one group is being imposed on Indonesian women as a whole. </p>
<p>The most thorough form of activism has been preaching for the state to regulate women’s bodies, including women’s reproductive rights, morality and sexuality. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/asia/30iht-indo.1.17378031.html">passing of the Anti-Pornography Law</a> in 2008 was a prominent early example. It was followed by attempts to <a href="https://indonesiaatmelbourne.unimelb.edu.au/the-anti-sexual-violence-bill-a-clash-of-values-or-politics/">criminalise homosexuality</a>, which affects the choices of women as much as men. </p>
<p>There has been persistent and <a href="https://indonesiaatmelbourne.unimelb.edu.au/child-marriage-constitutional-court-finally-ditches-religious-arguments/">highly organised opposition against bids to improve equality in the Constitutional Court</a>. </p>
<p>The passing of <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2019/09/13/house-agrees-to-raise-minimum-marriage-age-to-19.html">Marriage Law revision</a> by the House of Representatives, which raised the minimum age for marriage for females from 16 years old to 19 last year, faced similar opposition.</p>
<p>The opposing camp were heavily <a href="https://indonesiaatmelbourne.unimelb.edu.au/ailas-unsuccessful-petition-a-narrow-escape-from-overcriminalisation/">motivated by and promoted religious doctrine</a> in defence of the indefensible. </p>
<p>Most recently, there has been concerted and vocal opposition to an <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/07/02/public-outcry-as-house-plans-to-delay-sexual-violence-bill-again.html">anti-sexual violence bill</a>. Again, the opposition case was built upon Islamic teaching. </p>
<p>Campaigns by not only politicians but also highly organised civil society groups, such as the <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2019/09/19/how-a-populist-morality-movement-is-blocking-a-law-against-sexual-violence-in-indonesia-analysis.html">Family Love Alliance</a>, relentlessly promote conservative social values. </p>
<p>They rejected a policy framework that could <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-indonesias-anti-sexual-violence-bill-important-for-people-with-disabilities-118045">benefit women and, in particular, women with disabilities</a>. </p>
<p>The bill introduces a comprehensive criminal justice response to sexual violence, which includes sexual harassment, sexual exploitation, forced contraception, forced abortion, rape, forced marriage, forced prostitution, sexual slavery and abuse taking place in private and public domains. </p>
<p>Refusal to pass the bill means violence against women will continue to be normalised. </p>
<h2>Whose choice?</h2>
<p>It is hard for many to oppose religious standards when the public highly embrace faith. </p>
<p>Advocates of equity-driven public policy are also derogatorily characterised as proponents of <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2019/02/05/pks-rejects-antirape-bill-because-it-has-liberal-perspective.html">foreign</a> or <a href="https://nasional.tempo.co/read/1149894/maju-mundur-pembahasan-ruu-pks/full&view=ok">Western</a> ideology and incompatible with Indonesian values. </p>
<p>The challenge is for public contestation in Indonesia to properly reflect the needs of all Indonesian women rather than the choices of a particular group. </p>
<p>Democracy ensures an open space for this kind of debate. </p>
<p>But there is a real danger that beneficial outcomes for struggling Indonesian women will be lost in the noise of the current gendered, religiously driven argument.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dina Afrianty receives funding from Knowledge Sector Initiative, funded by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and implemented in partnership with Indonesia’s National Development Planning Agency. The opinions expressed in this article are the authors' own and do not represent the views of the Australian or Indonesian governments.</span></em></p>There is a trend in policy advocacy that pushes back progress and limits women’s freedom of choice.Dina Afrianty, Research Fellow at La Trobe Law School, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1356172020-05-18T12:16:39Z2020-05-18T12:16:39ZClaims of ideological bias among the media may be overblown<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332865/original/file-20200505-83736-bgjyay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=98%2C53%2C5838%2C3889&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. President Donald Trump takes questions from reporters during a Coronavirus Task Force press briefing in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, D.C., on March 30, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-takes-questions-from-reporters-news-photo/1208678177?adppopup=true">Madel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During a recent trip to the Lincoln Memorial, President Donald Trump <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/495898-trump-says-hes-been-treated-worse-than-lincoln-by-the-press">claimed that the media has treated him worse</a> than any previous president. </p>
<p>Such claims are not new or limited to Trump. Political elites across the spectrum <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149345678814060545?s=20">constantly</a> <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2012/08/mitt-camp-williams-wrong-unfair-080350">complain</a> about <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/02/28/810150316/bernie-tv-how-the-sanders-campaigns-live-videos-help-it-build-community">what the media covers</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/video/2020/03/19/trump-accuses-media-of-treating-him-unfairly-in-their-coverage-of-coronavirus-preparedness-069920">how they cover it</a>. The public shares that distrust. Less than half of Americans say they can identify a source that they believe <a href="https://knightfoundation.org/reports/american-views-trust-media-and-democracy">reports the news objectively</a>, despite strong journalism norms aimed at <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/ask-ppil-on-bias-in-journalism">minimizing bias</a>.</p>
<p>But are voters and politicians right? Is the media really biased? </p>
<p><a href="http://myweb.fsu.edu/hanhassell4/">We</a> <a href="http://www.matthewrmiles.com/">are</a> <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/johnbholbein/">political</a> <a href="https://www.kevinreuning.com/">scientists</a> who study journalists covering political news and the factors that affect political news coverage. In our <a href="http://journalismsurvey.org/">research</a>, conducted in 2017 and 2018, we examined media bias two different ways.</p>
<p>First, we studied whether the media displays bias by the stories they choose to cover. For example, a media outlet might cover a politician’s initial <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/?arc404=true">failure to respond to COVID-19</a> while another outlet chooses to bypass that story. This is what we call gatekeeping bias. What journalists cover, or <a href="https://masscommtheory.com/theory-overviews/agenda-setting-theory/">their agenda setting</a>, has a powerful effect on the issues people care about. Media bias, in other words, can occur if journalists ignore stories not aligned with their ideological preferences. </p>
<p>Second, we studied whether the media discussed stories differently – if they used a different tone or perspective to cover the same story. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/trump-us-coronavirus-briefing-latest-media">Two news outlets</a>, for example, might cover a politician’s press conference <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/us/trump-renews-focus-on-reopening-us-after-coronavirus-hits-economy-way-of-life">very differently</a>. News framing, studies show, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2691806?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">has an effect</a> on public opinion, though it’s often short-lived. </p>
<p>In the summer of 2017, we visited the website or Facebook page of every newspaper in the United States to gather email addresses of political journalists and editors. We collected email addresses for over 13,000 political journalists. We surveyed those journalists and combined what we learned with a separate analysis of newspaper content. </p>
<p>We found no evidence of the first form of bias – gatekeeping.</p>
<p>Although there is bias in how newspapers cover politics – the second kind of bias – the effects were largely limited to small shifts in tone. Moreover, our research shows that most newspapers are politically moderate, further reducing the impact of bias. </p>
<h2>Journalists are liberal</h2>
<p>To test for <a href="https://theconversation.com/you-are-the-new-gatekeeper-of-the-news-71862">gatekeeping</a> and <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-first-impression/201706/media-framing-effects">framing bias</a>, we needed information about journalists’ ideological preferences and the ideology of the newspapers that employ them. In the <a href="http://journalismsurvey.org/">survey</a>, we asked journalists to “describe (their) own personal (political) ideology” on a five-point scale ranging from very liberal to very conservative.</p>
<p>Many claimed to be independent or moderate. This could be because journalists are moderates or because they do not want to be accused of bias. Many other journalists didn’t answer the survey, perhaps because they didn’t want their ideology to be perceived as influencing their coverage. While our response rate of 13.1% is nearly double that of other surveys of journalists, there are lots of journalists who didn’t answer. </p>
<p>To overcome this hurdle, we used <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jcc4.12001">a method</a> that identifies an individual’s ideology using <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2019/04/24/sizing-up-twitter-users/">who they follow on Twitter</a>. For people who also answered the survey, the results closely matched. This allowed us to estimate of the ideology of every political journalist in our sample on Twitter. </p>
<p><iframe id="8Xbe4" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8Xbe4/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>No gatekeeping bias</h2>
<p>We found that most journalists are very liberal. The average journalist is to the left of prominent liberal politicians like former President Barack Obama. </p>
<p>However, simply being liberal does not make journalists biased. </p>
<p>To test for gatekeeping bias, we ran a correspondence experiment where journalists had a real coverage choice concerning a potential news story. We sent an email to every journalist requesting an interview for a purported candidate for a state legislature. Journalists randomly received an email from either a liberal or conservative candidate.</p>
<p>We found that journalists were just as likely to respond to very conservative candidates as very progressive candidates. Journalists also weren’t more interested in covering a candidate of their own ideology.</p>
<h2>Minimal framing bias</h2>
<p>Yes, but what about how newspapers cover the story? Though the liberal media might cover all candidates, some may wonder if they simply write “hit pieces” about conservatives. </p>
<p>Using our survey, we identified the ideology of almost 700 local and national newspapers. We asked journalists to tell us the ideology of the newspaper where they worked, along with seven other well known media outlets such as The New York Times and Fox News. </p>
<p>Journalists know the ideology of their own newspaper, but their perceptions might be impacted by assumptions about the <a href="https://guides.lib.umich.edu/c.php?g=637508&p=4462444">ideological center and ideological extremes</a>. Having journalists rate other media outlets allows us to account for these perceptions using a process called <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12151">Aldrich-McKelvey scaling</a>, which uses a respondent’s evaluation of well known media outlets as a way to adjust evaluations of their own media outlets. </p>
<p>Compared to national newspapers and other salient media outlets, our research shows that most local newspapers are moderate and very close to the ideological center. </p>
<p><iframe id="oWUKJ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oWUKJ/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>To see whether newspaper ideology affected the tone of coverage, we downloaded every story available about President Trump during his first 100 days in office. To measure tone, we used <a href="https://liwc.wpengine.com/">Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count</a>. This software estimates the emotional tone in written language on a scale from 0 to 100. If a story has a neutral tone, the software will score it a 50. </p>
<p>While there is a relationship between a newspaper’s ideology and the tone of coverage, the effect is small. We considered the average tone of three papers, one on the far right of our scale, one in the center, and one on the far left. For all three the tone is close to 50. Conservative newspapers are not overt Trump cheerleaders, and liberal outlets are not overly negative.</p>
<p>Our research also shows that there is no bias regarding which candidates newspapers cover. Additionally, there are only small shifts in the tone of coverage of one of the most polarizing news topics – Trump. Most newspaper coverage is moderate and exhibits few easily identifiable biases. </p>
<p>Contrary to President Trump’s claims, we find little blatant news bias in what the media covers and how it covers it. While the nature of politics encourages politicians to undermine negative coverage through claims of bias, our research suggests that ideological bias in U.S. newspapers is largely nonexistent.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135617/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Though political elites complain about what the media covers, and how they cover it, research shows that ideological bias among media outlets is largely nonexistent.Hans J.G. Hassell, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Florida State UniversityJohn Holbein, Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Education, University of VirginiaKevin Reuning, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Miami UniversityMatthew R. Miles, Professor of Political Science, Brigham Young UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1351032020-03-30T15:19:36Z2020-03-30T15:19:36ZWhy it matters that Boris Johnson thinks ‘there is such a thing as society’<p>A remark by Boris Johnson, that “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/29/20000-nhs-staff-return-to-service-johnson-%20says-from-coronavirus-isolation">there is such a thing as society</a>” in a recent press conference reflects the all-encompassing social impact of the coronavirus pandemic. But it was also a significant political statement. His carefully chosen words reflect an evolution taking place in the UK Conservative Party’s ideology.</p>
<p>On a fundamental level, Johnson’s words are an apparent rebuke of the much-quoted <a href="https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/106689">sentiments</a> of former the British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher. In a 1987 interview, she proclaimed there was “no such thing as society” (although this condensed quotation is often used in isolation and out of context).</p>
<p>Thatcher’s opinion, delivered at the height of her power, has since been viewed as epitomising the uncaring face of Thatcherism. She is remembered for espousing a political creed that encouraged an environment of selfish individualism in which people overlooked the less fortunate and neglected broader social and communitarian concerns. Books have since been written about the history of the 1980s, with <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/No-Such-Thing-Society-History/dp/1849019797">this quote as their title</a>.</p>
<h2>John Major’s change of heart</h2>
<p>It’s certainly true that one of Thatcher’s more negative legacies was a divided and less equal society. Her immediate successor John Major sought to address this when he declared he wanted to create a nation <a href="http://www.johnmajorarchive.org.uk/1990-1997/mr-majors-comments-on-a-nation-at-ease-with-itself-9-february-1992/">“at ease with itself”</a>.</p>
<p>This was an implicit acknowledgement of the social dislocation caused by the Thatcher years. Major sought a more social and unifying focus in his policymaking. However, when the Conservatives heavily lost the 1997 general election, many concluded that they had seemed out of touch with core social issues, continuing to prioritise individualism over society, and were punished at the
polls accordingly.</p>
<p>After that election debacle, the Conservative party gradually began to address this Achilles heel, seeking to revive interest in social policy among its supporters. Modernisers within the party identified this as a crucial area on which to focus if the party wanted to <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9781137445803">improve its image and ultimately regain office</a>.</p>
<p>Yet this was a slow and arduous process, and only after the party’s third consecutive general election defeat in 2005 did a revived and concerted social policy agenda truly flourish. After becoming party leader in late 2005, arch-moderniser David Cameron <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4504722.stm">tackled the issue head on</a>. In his acceptance speech he boldly declared “there is such a thing a society, it’s just not the same as the state”.</p>
<h2>David Cameron’s nebulous big society</h2>
<p>Cameron cultivated a more socially-infused language, and this arguably came to a head when he launched his “big society” agenda in 2009. This, he hoped, would form the blueprint for a more socially-themed programme for a <a href="https://conservative-speeches.sayit.mysociety.org/speech/601246">Conservative government</a>. The big society was supposed to encourage a greater sense of social community and cooperation by getting people to work at a grassroots level in their communities. </p>
<p>Yet Cameron’s words proved more challenging to practically implement, not least because he found himself in coalition rather than governing alone when he did eventually enter Downing Street. Some have claimed his social narrative “did not play well on the doorstep” and actually cost the party votes at the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/may/13/big-society-killed-by-power">2010 election</a>.</p>
<p>And while the big society and its more explicit social focus gained a degree of interest and momentum during Cameron’s first term in office, various critics dismissed it as being <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/caroline-slocock/big-society_b_6505902.html">hazy and vacuous</a>. It was also gravely undermined by the austerity programme implemented by Cameron’s government and a consequent lack of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/oct/03/cuts-big-society-treasury-civic-state">financial support</a>. Others claimed the government was abandoning some of its responsibilities by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/dec/03/cameron-big-society-at-risk-private-outsourcing-public-services">outsourcing services</a>.</p>
<p>So while the Cameron era certainly sought a much clearer and more positive focus on “society” compared to the Thatcher years, it ultimately failed to deliver on various policy levels, and the big society had largely fizzled out by 2015.</p>
<h2>Theresa May gets sidetracked by Brexit</h2>
<p>Cameron had nevertheless revived the “society” issue to a considerable degree. His successor Theresa May developed this social narrative further. Although often distracted by the overwhelming task of Brexit, May initiated her own social agenda in early 2017 when she spoke of her desire for a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-shared-society-article-by-theresa-may">“shared society”</a>.</p>
<p>May’s focus was on vulnerable members of society who could not support themselves, and who specifically required assistance from a more interventionist state. This seemed to be a significant departure from Thatcher’s prescription for the country during the 1980s, where she pledged to “roll back the frontiers” of the state. Yet May delivered little on this front in practical terms, arguably distracted by Brexit, electoral failure and internal party divisions.</p>
<p>The fear for some Conservatives in the Thatcher tradition is that a renewed focus on society and the state undermines the workings of their much cherished free market. This is particularly the case for those Conservative MPs who saw Brexit as a means of delivering a smaller state, and which is now at risk, given the major state interventions currently underway to fight the coronavirus.</p>
<p>The coronavairus outbreak is a challenge to government and wider society on such an epic scale that it, in itself, diminishes Thatcher’s comments of the 1980s. Johnson is broadly viewed as an admirer of Thatcher but has also espoused paternalistic <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/007bff64-1c40-11ea-97df-cc63de1d73f4">“One Nation” tendencies</a>. He now has the chance to decisively remould and reformulate the Conservatives’ attitude towards “society”. He advocated a more social and <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-nhs-tax-rise-budget-flybe-sajid-javid-chancellor-a9284471.html">interventionist policy agenda</a> in the 2019 election and now seems to be recognising that this crisis is a moment to formally discard one of Thatcher’s most negative legacies from his party’s image. This will certainly represent an outcome way beyond what recent Conservative leaders have tried (and failed) to do in the social policy sphere. </p>
<p>Whether this crisis and its aftermath means Johnson pursues a more socially-themed and inclusive approach in the longer term remains to be seen, but his recent rhetoric suggests that is very likely. That could radically change the nature of both the Conservative party and the UK’s broader party political landscape for many years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135103/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Williams is a member of Amnesty International, the Labour Party and the National Education Union.</span></em></p>The coronavairus outbreak is a challenge to government that it, in itself, diminishes Thatcher’s comments of the 1980s.Ben Williams, Tutor in Politics and Political Theory, University of SalfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.