tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/contagion-1696/articlesContagion – The Conversation2023-03-22T17:03:49Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2023822023-03-22T17:03:49Z2023-03-22T17:03:49ZWhen banks go bust: the four factors at play - trust, confidence, contagion and systemic risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516993/original/file-20230322-1436-7szzi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Banks are <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64951630">in the news again</a>. Two <a href="https://www.eiu.com/n/the-collapse-of-two-us-banks-raises-the-stakes-for-the-fed/#:%7E:text=Two%20regional%20US%20banks%2C%20California,a%20massive%20run%20on%20deposits.">bank failures</a> in the US, and the forced takeover of <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/19/business/credit-suisse-ubs-rescue/index.html">Credit Suisse by UBS in Switzerland</a>, have triggered the worst turmoil in the banking sector since the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-guide-to-the-financial-crisis--10-years-later/2018/09/10/114b76ba-af10-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story.html">2008 financial crisis</a>. There’s talk of a lack of trust, of a collapse in confidence, of contagion and systemic risk. Jannie Rossouw explains why they’re concepts worth understanding.</em></p>
<h2>Trust</h2>
<p>The whole principle of banking is <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264746430_THE_CONCEPT_OF_CONFIDENCE_IN_BANK">built on trust</a>. Clients deposit money with banks to receive interest and trust that their deposits will be repaid at maturity. Banks lend money to borrowers, trusting that lenders will pay the interest on borrowed funds and will repay the borrowed capital in accordance with the loan agreements.</p>
<p>Staff members work at banks, trusting the institution’s ability to pay salaries and provide other agreed benefits. Bank supervisors trust that their models and control mechanisms will raise warnings about liquidity, solvency and other risks facing any bank in a timely fashion. This will allow them sufficient time to step in, for instance by appointing a curator for a bank about to get into trouble. </p>
<p>In South Africa, the South African Reserve Bank is responsible for <a href="https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home">bank supervision</a>. Stakeholders trust that it will do its job and keep their money safe. They trust that the individuals managing the banks will do so in a proper and sound way, thus not putting the economy or the banking system at risk. </p>
<p>Lastly, shareholders in a bank provide the permanent capital for the institution, based on the trust that their investment will grow in value and pay them dividends over time.</p>
<h2>Confidence</h2>
<p>All this confidence rests on the ability of banking institutions to manage risks appropriately. The very basis on which banks operate <a href="https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/risk-management/major-risks-for-banks/">is risky</a>. Banks are exposed to various types of risks that can contribute to failure. This is where confidence is important.</p>
<p>Banks are in the business of taking short-term deposits and converting those into long-term borrowing. Loan duration is longer than deposit (also called funding) duration. Therefore, if all depositors are spooked, and lose confidence in the bank’s ability to keep their money safe, they might start demanding repayment of their deposits on the same day. A bank can simply not meet such a demand for simultaneous withdrawals.</p>
<p>Another major potential hurdle is <a href="https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/risk-management/major-risks-for-banks/">liquidity risk</a>. Liquidity risk emerges when depositors want their deposits back and the bank can’t repay them all at once. It can trigger other problems.</p>
<p>Liquidity risk can also emerge when the assets of banks drop in value. The assets of a bank are the loans made to the public. Defaults on the repayment of such loans require write-offs. This erosion of asset value can trigger liquidity and solvency risks.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/svb-proves-even-smaller-banks-are-too-big-fail-2023-03-15/">Silicon Valley Bank in the US</a> invested heavily in government bonds. When bond rates increased, the capital value of the bonds held by the bank declined. This resulted in a liquidity shortage and a solvency crisis.</p>
<p>Once sufficient risks are triggered, a bank will run into serious financial difficulty. It might not survive, because trust will be shattered.</p>
<p>Under such circumstances, the authorities <a href="https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/what-we-do/payments-and-settlements/regulation-oversight-and-supervision">appoint a curator</a> to manage the bank’s affairs. A curator will either manage a bank back to sound health, or will wind down its business and bring the bank to a closure.</p>
<p>In recent years in South Africa, <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/news/sources/clm-news/2018/explainer-lessons-from-the-collapse-of-a-small-south-african-bank.html">VBS Bank</a> and African Bank were placed under the control of curators. VBS Bank was completely insolvent and therefore closed. Many depositors suffered large losses.</p>
<p>In the case of <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/money-and-investing/2020-02-20-african-bank-out-of-the-woods/">African Bank</a>, the curator could split the assets into a “good bank” (performing assets) and a “bad bank” (non-performing assets). These two parts were managed differently, with the good bank and performing assets moved back into private management as African Bank. The non-performing assets were kept apart and managed with the aim of recovering as much as possible from lenders.</p>
<h2>Contagion</h2>
<p>Contagion happens when a lack of trust in one banking institution spreads to others. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-guide-to-the-financial-crisis--10-years-later/2018/09/10/114b76ba-af10-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story.html">This happened in 2008</a>, when so-called sub-prime mortgage bonds were repriced with higher interest rates and borrowers could not afford larger repayments. Problems at some banks resulted in distrust in the whole banking industry.</p>
<p>In the past two weeks, there was again a risk of contagion after problems emerged at Silicon Valley Bank and at <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/19/business/credit-suisse-ubs-rescue/index.html">Credit Suisse in Switzerland</a>. In both instances, the regulators stepped in to contain fears about the banking system. It was <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/19/business/credit-suisse-ubs-rescue/index.html">agreed</a> that Credit Suisse would be sold to UBS, another Swiss bank. The announcement of this sale contained fears of contagion.</p>
<p>Contagion can spread beyond the banking system. Financial contagion refers to the spread of an economic crisis from one market (for instance the banking sector) or one country to other markets (for instance the insurance industry) or other countries. </p>
<p>Under these conditions, confidence in industries or even in countries can dissipate overnight. This is what happened in 2008, when there was doubt about the continued existence of the international banking system. Under such conditions, people revert to cash and keep their savings in banknotes. This in itself places a liquidity squeeze on the banking system, as cash flows out of the system.</p>
<h2>Systemic risk?</h2>
<p>Systemic risk is linked to contagion. It’s the risk of a breakdown of an entire system rather than the failure of an individual institution. A typical example is where the failure of an individual bank results in the failure of more banks, then the failure of the banking system and then the failure of the entire financial system.</p>
<p>Systemic failure can occur because different financial institutions hold exposures against one another. If bank A has a substantial deposit with bank B or insurer C and any one of the latter two run into financial difficulty, the result can be that bank A also faces financial difficulty. </p>
<p>Confidence in banking is hard-earned and easily shocked. This makes individual banks and the banking sector susceptible to knock-on effects from other institutions. </p>
<h2>What can be done to manage these factors?</h2>
<p>Risks in banks are managed at two levels. </p>
<p>The management of the bank is responsible for its sound operation. Management must assess and mitigate risk. In the recent case of SVB in the US, reports suggest that the bank <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-how-it-happened.html">didn’t manage its risk portfolio well</a>, putting it at risk from major changes in the market, like sustained higher interest rates.</p>
<p>At the same time, banks are subject to <a href="https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/what-we-do/payments-and-settlements/regulation-oversight-and-supervision">supervision by the authorities</a>. Banks must meet the regulatory requirements of supervisors and manage their affairs accordingly. </p>
<p>In South Africa, <a href="https://civicsacademy.co.za/what-is-a-bank/">legislation</a> makes provision for different types of banks to allow for different levels of sophistication in banking operations. </p>
<h2>How vulnerable are banks on the African continent?</h2>
<p>Africa is a vast continent of <a href="https://www.africa.com/54-african-countries/">54 countries</a>. African countries are also at vastly different levels of economic development. It is therefore impossible to pronounce on the soundness of the continent’s banking system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202382/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jannie Rossouw previously received financial assistance for research from the NRF. He owns shares in various South African banks.</span></em></p>Confidence in banking is hard-earned and easily shocked. This makes individual banks and the banking sector susceptible to knock-on effects from other institutions.Jannie Rossouw, Visiting Professor at the Business School, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2021742023-03-22T10:52:16Z2023-03-22T10:52:16ZWhat is systemic risk and how does it lead to a banking crisis?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516650/original/file-20230321-1318-civ0ma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=214%2C103%2C4304%2C2779&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dead-piggy-bank-lies-upside-down-2142575907">Andrii Yalanskyi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), <a href="https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news-analysis/4080434/us-regional-banks-challenging-future-aftermath-svb-blowup">a regional US bank</a> that funded start-up companies in the technology and innovation sector, has created a worldwide wave of financial instability.</p>
<p>Despite the efforts of US financial regulators to contain the potential damage by immediately providing full protection to the bank’s depositors, the collapse triggered <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/jitters-over-health-of-us-banks-spark-global-stock-market-sell-off-12830097">a global dip in banking share prices</a>. </p>
<p>The turmoil in financial markets led to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8be852c0-f735-4634-89bc-45238d753659">the collapse of Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse</a>, which was promptly taken over by UBS, an even larger bank. This was after an initial US$54 billion (£45 billion) lifeline from the Swiss central bank proved to be insufficient to rescue Credit Suisse.</p>
<p>How is it possible that the collapse of a relatively small financial institution like SVB could be so contagious as to end up having global consequences, including bringing down <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/how-credit-suisse-has-evolved-over-167-years-2023-03-16/">a 167-year-old financial institution like Credit Suisse</a>? </p>
<p>Answering this question requires an understanding of systemic risk, which refers to risks associated with the entire financial system. Broadly speaking, there are two distinct sources of systemic risk: balance sheet contagion and information runs.</p>
<h2>Balance sheet contagion</h2>
<p>The risk of balance sheet contagion arises from the vast number of financial agreements between companies in the international financial system. No bank operates in isolation – they are all tightly interconnected through agreements that might include both short-term and long-term loans, and various other contract types such as <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/derivative.asp">derivatives</a>. </p>
<p>The largest financial institutions are also typically the most interconnected, providing and receiving credit from many others. When one or more of these large institutions suffer losses that cannot be covered by their capital, they become insolvent. This means they are unable to fully meet their obligations, for example if they owe money to another bank. These other banks will then also suffer losses which can spread even further, affecting their creditors and creating a potential cascade of failures. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2018/09/05/blog-ten-years-after-lehman-lessons-learned-and-challenges-ahead">huge intervention in financial markets by US and European financial authorities</a> following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 aimed to avoid such contagion. In fact, the 2008 global financial crisis is a good example of the systemic risk that these large organisations with so many interconnections pose. They become “too big to fail” because their collapse will affect not only the financial system, but the whole global economy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Banking symbols on tiles, one bank is red, network is blocked." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516651/original/file-20230321-16-3xdwzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516651/original/file-20230321-16-3xdwzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516651/original/file-20230321-16-3xdwzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516651/original/file-20230321-16-3xdwzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516651/original/file-20230321-16-3xdwzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516651/original/file-20230321-16-3xdwzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516651/original/file-20230321-16-3xdwzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Risk can be contagious because the banking industry is so interconnected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sanctioned-blocking-bank-exclusion-swift-economic-2266142725">Andrii Yalanskyi/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Information runs</h2>
<p>On the other hand, the recent banking crisis is an example of a systemic risk event caused by an information run. This is triggered when problems in one part of the system raise concerns about the financial robustness of other parts. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://ir.svb.com/news-and-research/news/news-details/2023/SVB-Financial-Group-Announces-Proposed-Offerings-of-Common-Stock-and-Mandatory-Convertible-Preferred-Stock/default.aspx#:%7E:text=SVB%20sold%20approximately%20%2421%20billion,the%20first%20quarter%20of%202023.">an announcement about SVB’s asset losses on March 8 2023</a> caused its customers with unprotected deposits to rush to the bank to withdraw their money. The eventual closure of SVB raised concerns that other banks might be suffering from similar losses. This encouraged investors around the world to sell banking shares, causing a rout in the industry’s stock. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/silicon-valley-bank-how-interest-rates-helped-trigger-its-collapse-and-what-central-bankers-should-do-next-201697">Silicon Valley Bank: how interest rates helped trigger its collapse and what central bankers should do next</a>
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<p>Information runs happen when investors and depositors don’t have the full picture about the banks whose shares they hold or in which they have deposited their money. This causes them to draw inferences about the financial health of these banks by observing what happens in the rest of the system. People make the reasonable assumption that banks around the globe are making similar investment decisions to the one that has just collapsed. </p>
<p>Understanding systemic risk and its implications for global markets has been an important research topic for financial economists for a long time. Last year, Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig were <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2022/10/popular-economicsciencesprize2022.pdf">awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics</a> for their research in this area. In 1983, they introduced a theoretical model that explains the mechanism by which rumours about banks can lead to their eventual collapse. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, 40 years later, the international banking system has just provided another striking example of the very instability that Diamond and Dybvig outlined in their work.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nobel-economics-prize-insights-into-financial-contagion-changed-how-central-banks-react-during-a-crisis-192208">Nobel economics prize: insights into financial contagion changed how central banks react during a crisis</a>
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<h2>Unintended consequences</h2>
<p>The complex interplay between the global economy and the international financial system implies that policies aiming to solve one problem can have unintended consequences – with potentially large systemic effects. </p>
<p>Recent inflationary pressure due to rising energy prices and the war in Ukraine has led central banks to raise interest rates to curb global demand and try to reduce inflation. However, rising interest rates caused a drop in the prices of fixed-income securities such as government bonds. These bonds are held by financial institutions like SVB that then see the value of a significant portion of their assets drop. This limits their ability to raise funds and satisfy the demands for liquidity from other banks, businesses and households.</p>
<p>Such issues can quickly spread throughout the financial system and, if they infect a large bank, the impact can multiply very quickly – as we have seen during the 2008 financial crisis and more recently.</p>
<p>The danger to the entire financial system from a few giant banks failing is well recognised. The irony is that, during both the global financial crisis and the recent financial turmoil, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/high-street-banks-given-24-hours-to-rescue-silicon-valley-bank-uk-12831984">part of the solution</a> has been for failed institutions to be absorbed by even bigger banks. Such consolidation enhances systemic risk by potentially sowing the seeds of future crises.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Spiros Bougheas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are two types of systemic risk that can infect the highly interconnected global banking system.Spiros Bougheas, Professor of Economics, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1883352022-08-06T12:21:36Z2022-08-06T12:21:36ZMonkeypox is now a national public health emergency in the U.S. – an epidemiologist explains what this means<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477911/original/file-20220805-15-9vb2ey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7988%2C4467&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The goal of the public health emergency declaration is to prevent the monkeypox virus from becoming a widespread threat to public health.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/3d-illustration-of-monkeypox-infection-pandemic-royalty-free-image/1401428022">ALIOUI Mohammed Elamine/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After news broke that the U.S. declared monkeypox to be a public health emergency, friends and family started asking me, an <a href="https://hs.richmond.edu/faculty/kjacobse/">infectious disease epidemiologist</a>, if monkeypox is about to begin causing widespread death and chaos. I assured them that the Aug. 4, 2022, <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2022/08/04/biden-harris-administration-bolsters-monkeypox-response-hhs-secretary-becerra-declares-public-health-emergency.html">public health emergency declaration</a> is about government resource allocation. Similar to the World Health Organization’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-declaring-monkeypox-a-global-health-emergency-is-a-preventative-step-not-a-reason-for-panic-187669">declaration of monkeypox as a public health emergency of international concern</a>, the U.S. declaration isn’t calling for individuals who are not in a high-risk group to change anything about their lives.</p>
<p>There have not yet been any monkeypox deaths in the U.S., but <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/us-map.html">more than 7,000 cases</a> have been diagnosed thus far, and the spread of the virus to nearly every state is concerning. While most cases are still <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/technical-report.html">occurring among men who have sex with men</a>, the virus is transmitted through nonsexual skin-to-skin contact, so there is a risk of people in other population groups contracting the infection. The federal declaration is intended to help slow the spread of the virus among men who have sex with men and stop it from spreading to new communities.</p>
<h2>What is a public health emergency?</h2>
<p>Presidents and state governors have the authority to declare states of emergency when there is a potentially life-threatening situation and the resources routinely allocated to the responding agencies are insufficient for dealing with the situation.</p>
<p>In late July, 2022, for example, the governor of Kentucky <a href="https://kentucky.gov/Pages/Activity-stream.aspx?n=GovernorBeshear&prId=1423">declared a state of emergency</a> following devastating flooding in the eastern part of the state. The governor requested and received federal assistance to help respond to the floods. The declaration didn’t mean that more flooding was expected. It just made <a href="https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/news/governor-launches-team-eastern-kentucky-flood-relief-fund-as-part-of-response-to-deadly-flooding/article_773d0796-0eb5-11ed-b776-1f0e15ed4c9d.html">extra resources available</a> for rescuing stranded individuals and providing essential services, like shelter and drinking water, to displaced people.</p>
<p>Similarly, the monkeypox emergency declaration doesn’t mean that the government expects millions more cases in the next month. It is about helping health agencies get the vaccines and other tools they need to slow the spread of the virus.</p>
<h2>Does the public health emergency call for public action?</h2>
<p>No. The main thing the emergency declaration does is enable the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to get more of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2017.303956">funding and other resources that it needs</a> to protect the public from a more widespread monkeypox outbreak. At this point, monkeypox is an emergency for the U.S. government’s public health agencies to deal with. It is not an emergency for the public right now. The goal of the emergency declaration is to prevent monkeypox from becoming a more widespread threat to public health. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Hand with raised, fluid-filled bumps on the back of the hand" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477924/original/file-20220805-35508-thzafi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477924/original/file-20220805-35508-thzafi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477924/original/file-20220805-35508-thzafi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477924/original/file-20220805-35508-thzafi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477924/original/file-20220805-35508-thzafi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477924/original/file-20220805-35508-thzafi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477924/original/file-20220805-35508-thzafi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">As of early August, 2022, there were 7,000 cases of monkeypox in the U.S. so far, with cases spread across several states.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/monkey-pox-rash-royalty-free-image/1399004693">Mario Guti/iStock via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>What will the US government do now?</h2>
<p>According to the Department of Health and Human Services, there are two key <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2022/08/04/biden-harris-administration-bolsters-monkeypox-response-hhs-secretary-becerra-declares-public-health-emergency.html">actions that will be taken at this stage of the outbreak</a>.</p>
<p>First, the government will intensify its efforts to protect at-risk communities by trying to get new vaccine doses faster and increasing access to testing and treatment. Officials are also working with LGBTQI+ communities to educate men who have sex with men about <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/sexualhealth/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fpoxvirus%2Fmonkeypox%2Fspecific-settings%2Fsocial-gatherings.html">reducing their risk of contracting the monkeypox virus</a>.</p>
<p>Second, the emergency declaration calls for all states and other jurisdictions to share data with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It also authorizes the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to collect data about monkeypox testing and hospitalizations. These actions will give the Department of Health and Human Services better data about where monkeypox is occurring so the agency can distribute vaccines and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp2210125">the antiviral medication tecovirimat (Tpoxx)</a> to the states and cities that have the greatest need for them.</p>
<h2>Will the declaration boost the supply of vaccines?</h2>
<p>The Jynneos vaccine is the only <a href="https://theconversation.com/monkeypox-vaccines-a-virologist-answers-6-questions-about-how-they-work-who-can-get-them-and-how-well-they-prevent-infection-188214">monkeypox-specific vaccine currently approved</a> by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.add7604">Increased demand for monkeypox vaccines</a> has used up most of the world’s existing supply of Jynneos. It will take several months for additional doses to be manufactured. These new doses are expected to be delivered <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2022/07/21/fact-sheet-us-department-of-health-and-human-services-response-to-the-monkeypox-outbreak.html">between the end of 2022 and the middle of 2023</a>.</p>
<p>However, the emergency declaration explains that the government may use a “<a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2022/08/04/biden-harris-administration-bolsters-monkeypox-response-hhs-secretary-becerra-declares-public-health-emergency.html">new dose-sparing approach that could increase the number of doses available, up to five-fold</a>” – an approach called fractional dosing – to make the vaccine available to more people.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/131078/download">package insert for the Jynneos vaccine</a> specifies that it should be given in two 0.5-milliliter doses four weeks apart. The emergency declaration outlines a strategy in which people are instead given two 0.1-milliliter doses. If the lower dose is as effective as the full dose, up to five times more people could be vaccinated with the same amount of vaccine.</p>
<p>Fractional dosing is not a new strategy. During a 2016 yellow fever epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa, clinical trials showed that a small portion of the approved vaccine dose <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1710430">was just as effective as a full dose</a> at conferring immunity. </p>
<p>For the current monkeypox outbreak in the U.S., the National Institutes of Health will <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2022/08/04/with-monkeypox-vaccine-in-high-demand-nih-to-test-approaches-to-stretch-supplies/">evaluate whether a smaller dose of monkeypox vaccine might be effective</a>, as well as whether one shot provides about as much protection as two doses.</p>
<p>The emergency declaration does not call for schools, businesses, nursing homes or individuals to change their behaviors in any way or to prepare for any sorts of future restrictions. Declaring monkeypox a public health emergency just makes more resources available to help the government protect the public from this infectious disease.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188335/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn H. Jacobsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Declaring monkeypox a national health emergency will allow the U.S. government to direct resources and funds where needed to help slow the spread of the virus.Kathryn H. Jacobsen, William E. Cooper Distinguished University Chair, Professor of Health Studies, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1782842022-03-23T19:53:49Z2022-03-23T19:53:49ZThe importance of Indigenous storytelling in tales of post-apocalyptic survival<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453754/original/file-20220323-23-14c2mc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C75%2C8441%2C5707&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In Blood Quantum, Indigenous survivors are immune to a plague that transforms others into zombies.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.elevationpictures.com/catalogue">(Elevation Pictures)</a></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-importance-of-indigenous-storytelling-in-tales-of-post-apocalyptic-survival" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>With many provinces across <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/the-time-is-absolutely-right-for-pandemic-measures-to-lift-experts-say-1.5785151">Canada lifting vaccine and mask mandates</a>, <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-to-cope-with-no-mask-anxiety">anxieties are high</a>. If COVID-19 is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/18/heres-how-covid-19-transitions-from-a-pandemic-to-endemic.html">becoming endemic</a>, we must search for what philosopher Jonathan Lear calls “<a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674027466">radical hope</a>.” </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/radical-hope-what-young-dreamers-in-literature-can-teach-us-about-covid-19-142528">Radical hope: What young dreamers in literature can teach us about COVID-19</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, alongside trauma and <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/middle-ages/pandemics-timeline">particularly in times of pandemics throughout history</a>, hope can take the form of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkDsIcAXETY">stories about resilience</a>. And for Indigenous people in particular, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/corporate/publications/chief-public-health-officer-reports-state-public-health-canada/from-risk-resilience-equity-approach-covid-19/indigenous-peoples-covid-19-report.html">who have disproportionately experienced the effects of the pandemic</a>, what better way to find hope than to turn to Indigenous survivors in post-apocalyptic narratives?</p>
<h2>Survival stories</h2>
<p>Métis author Cherie Dimaline provides us the opportunity to do just this. Dimaline is best known for <em>The Marrow Thieves</em>, which won the <a href="https://ggbooks.ca/about">Governor General’s Literary Award</a> and the <a href="https://www.kirkusreviews.com/prize/">Kirkus Prize</a>. <em>The Marrow Thieves</em> is listed as one of <a href="https://time.com/collection/100-best-ya-books/6084702/the-marrow-thieves/"><em>TIME</em> magazine’s Best YA Books of All Time</a>. </p>
<p>The novel was written in response to the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5448390/first-nations-suicide-rate-statscan/">suicide epidemic</a> within Indigenous communities. During her work with Indigenous youth, Dimaline wanted to show them a viable future where they could be <a href="https://www.thestar.com/entertainment/books/2017/11/06/cherie-dimaline-hopes-and-dreams-in-the-apocalypse.html">the heroes</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZWYrmrAi8ow?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Cherie Dimaline at The Walrus Talks in 2019.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://www.dcbyoungreaders.com/the-marrow-thieves">The Marrow Thieves</a></em> and its sequel, <em><a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/651691/hunting-by-stars-by-cherie-dimaline/9780735269651">Hunting by Stars</a></em>, follow Métis protagonist Frenchie and his found family of other Indigenous survivors as they roam a post-apocalyptic wasteland ravaged by climate change. In this new world, everyone except Indigenous people have lost the ability to dream. <a href="https://herizons.ca/archives/cover/cherie-dimaline-the-importance-of-dreams">Without dreams, people go mad</a> — killing others and committing suicide. </p>
<p>Governments respond by establishing schools inspired by the residential school system, and characters called “recruiters” search for Indigenous survivors to bring back to the schools to be “harvested.” The marrow within the bones of Indigenous people contains dreams, and by harvesting and consuming the marrow, non-Indigenous survivors can finally dream. </p>
<p><em>Hunting by Stars</em> reflects contemporary concerns about residential schools as well as contagion:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“…medical masks hanging from their ears like hand-me-down jewelry. They had the plague. Trash cans at the end of each driveway were heaped with syringes, so many vaccinations and cures thrown out because none would work. The people stumbled into one another, knocking over cans and crunching through needles. They had that look, the one that let you know they were dreamless.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Story and hope</h2>
<p>In Dimaline’s novels, there is <em>the</em> Story: as Indigenous survivors tell their stories, the overarching Story changes slightly to include these new voices. Story, with a capital “s,” is comprised of a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/ail.2020.0023">shared oral history</a>,” produced by the various characters’ narratives.</p>
<p>Miigwans, the Elder figure in the novel is responsible for telling Story to ensure the younger Indigenous survivors in the novel remember their history. Therefore, his telling of Story ensures that it will never be forgotten. However, Story is not just the history of the Indigenous characters in the novel; <a href="https://quillandquire.com/review/the-marrow-thieves/">Story is the history</a> of everyone living in Canada, both Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples.</p>
<p>Story includes climate change, pipelines, colonialism, Treaties and the residential school system. </p>
<p>Dimaline admits that stories are how she <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/14/books/indigenous-native-american-sci-fi-horror.html">understands herself and her community</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453750/original/file-20220323-17-1taksgr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a book cover HUNTING BY STARS showing an illustration of a silhouetted forest beneath a starry night sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453750/original/file-20220323-17-1taksgr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453750/original/file-20220323-17-1taksgr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453750/original/file-20220323-17-1taksgr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453750/original/file-20220323-17-1taksgr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453750/original/file-20220323-17-1taksgr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453750/original/file-20220323-17-1taksgr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453750/original/file-20220323-17-1taksgr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The book cover for Cherie Dimaline’s 2021 novel, <em>Hunting by Stars</em>.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/651691/hunting-by-stars-by-cherie-dimaline/9780735269651">(Penguin Random House)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Given that Dimaline’s original inspiration was to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/books/the-message-ya-novelist-cherie-dimaline-has-for-young-indigenous-readers-1.4195036">bring hope to Indigenous youth</a> amidst rising suicide rates, the relationship between Story and hope cannot be overlooked.</p>
<p>Dimaline’s novels resonate in today’s world. The re-introduction of residential schools in the world of Dimaline’s novels is timely, given recent confirmations of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/canada-169-potential-graves-found-at-former-residential-school">unmarked burial sites</a> at former residential school locations throughout Canada.</p>
<h2>Plagues and zombies</h2>
<p>Story plays a similar role in Mi'kmaq director Jeff Barnaby’s 2019 zombie film, <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7394674/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0"><em>Blood Quantum</em></a>. In <em>Blood Quantum</em>, a zombie-producing plague has ravaged the world, but Indigenous people find themselves immune to the virus. They establish a safe zone on the fictional Red Crow Reservation and protect both Indigenous and non-Indigenous survivors. However, the inclusion of the latter is a point of contention for some characters.</p>
<p>In the film, there are a few animated scenes that represent Story. In the final animated scene, an elder named Gisigu appears to perish beneath a mass of zombies. However, the scene changes to animation, and Gisigu emerges victorious. Gisigu may have perished in the material world, but in Story, he lives on. When animated Gisigu emerges from beneath the mass, he vows never to let the zombies pass, protecting the future of his surviving Indigenous family.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453748/original/file-20220323-17-1qb0kio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a man stands over a pile of zombies in a room with blood-stained walls" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453748/original/file-20220323-17-1qb0kio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453748/original/file-20220323-17-1qb0kio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453748/original/file-20220323-17-1qb0kio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453748/original/file-20220323-17-1qb0kio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453748/original/file-20220323-17-1qb0kio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453748/original/file-20220323-17-1qb0kio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453748/original/file-20220323-17-1qb0kio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A still from the Indigenous zombie horror movie, <em>Blood Quantum</em> (2019).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Elevation Pictures)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Understanding through Story</h2>
<p>For many Indigenous people, storytelling is a form of reclamation — what Anishnaabe writer Gerald Vizenor would call “<a href="https://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/nebraska-paperback/9780803210837/">survivance</a>,” a portmanteau of survival and resistance. The concept relies on the use of stories to ensure the continued <a href="https://politicaltheology.com/survivance/">presence of Indigenous people</a>.</p>
<p>In response to the recent confirmations of unmarked burial sites at residential schools, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/11/21/canadas-crying-shame-the-fields-full-of-childrens-bones">survivors are recounting stories about those who unfortunately did not survive</a>. Doing so is survivance — these stories bring lost Indigenous children into the present and give those who survived as well as those who unfortunately did not, <a href="https://theconversation.com/residential-school-literature-can-teach-the-colonial-present-and-imagine-better-futures-120383">voice and agency</a>.</p>
<p>As a third-generation residential school survivor, I cannot possibly understand what my grandmother experienced inside the schools. I can, however, <a href="https://epl.bibliocommons.com/list/share/69643431/675287927">read Story and begin to understand my own part in Story</a>. Therefore, we can all learn a little something about ourselves and our world from Indigenous survival stories.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178284/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Krista Collier-Jarvis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Indigenous stories of survival in fictional post-apocalyptic landscapes draw from actual events and experiences. These stories preserve histories and the possibility of hope.Krista Collier-Jarvis, PhD Candidate in English, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1534182021-01-28T17:31:59Z2021-01-28T17:31:59ZMemes like Bernie Sanders’ mittens spread through networks the same way viruses spread through populations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380936/original/file-20210127-19-a69qsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C2059%2C1377&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. Bernie Sanders (far right) attended the 59th Presidential Inauguration at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Jan. 20, 2021.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Caroline Brehman/Pool via AP)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>None of us escaped the Bernie Sanders mitten memes following President Joe Biden’s inauguration. <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/bernie-sanders-photographer-1118174/">The photographer Brendan Smialowski captured the image of Sen. Sanders seated at the inauguration that went viral</a>, resulting in an explosion of thousands of memes that spread rapidly across the world.</p>
<p>Memes aside, we are in the middle of a deadly global pandemic, unlike anything we’ve faced in modern times. At the time of writing, <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?">there are more than 100 million COVID-19 cases and two million deaths worldwide</a>. When a person becomes infected with COVID-19, they may infect others physically close to them at their home, workplace or in a crowded public space. Despite mitigating efforts such as physical distancing and face masks, new hotspots of infection may readily appear.</p>
<p>Over the past year, we’ve heard a lot in the news cycle about epidemiology, focusing on the science of how infections spread in populations. Terms like the “R number” and “exponential spread” are <a href="https://www.dictionary.com/e/coronavirus-words/">now part of our everyday lexicon</a>. Close physical interactions between people are the cause of the spread of viruses like COVID-19 through social networks.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CKc4E39pFAZ","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Physical and digital networks</h2>
<p>Networks permeate our lives at every level, from the interactions of proteins in our cells to our followers on social media and Bitcoin transactions. Over the past 20 years, a sizeable interdisciplinary field emerged to study what makes networks tick. Network science focuses on the modelling and mining of networks, informed by mathematics, physics and computational sciences.</p>
<p>Networks are collections of dots called <em>nodes</em> and lines called <em>edges</em> representing interactions between objects. Imagine a network with nodes representing people in a city and edges formed by those within two metres apart. Such a contact network maps how contagions like COVID-19 spread. </p>
<p>For a different example, consider accounts on Twitter as nodes, with edges linking to those accounts’ followers. We may then visualize Twitter as a network with <a href="https://blog.hootsuite.com/twitter-demographics/">340 million nodes</a>, swarming with tens of billions of edges. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An illustration showing the connections between nodes or items in a network" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In a network, nodes are linked by edges. Darker nodes in the figure have more edges.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Burning networks</h2>
<p>If a person becomes infected with COVID-19, they can infect those close to them. From there, the virus may spread to others in their contact network. A challenge with modelling a viral outbreak is that infections do not spread from one person alone <a href="https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-coronavirus-world.html">but from many sources</a>. Without mitigation, contagion is analogous to a fire burning up a dry forest, wreaking havoc across large areas. </p>
<p>How can we measure the speed of contagion in a network? Viruses and memes inspired the idea of <em>network burning</em>, <a href="https://www.internetmathematicsjournal.com/article/1599-how-to-burn-a-graph">which measures the speed at which contagion spreads between nodes</a>. </p>
<p>Burning spreads over discrete time-steps, and one new source of burning appears at each step of the process. The latter part is an essential feature: multiple sources pop up anywhere in the network over time. The process ends when every node is burning; for example, the process ends if every person in a population catches COVID-19.</p>
<p>From Bernie Sander’s mittens to Baby Yoda or Mike Pence’s fly, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/pop-culture/viral/dancing-pallbearers-mike-pence-fly-pretty-best-friends-here-are-n1252118">memes appear and spread quickly through social networks such as Facebook, Instagram and Twitter</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mike-pences-fly-from-renaissance-portraits-to-salvador-dali-artists-used-flies-to-make-a-point-about-appearances-147815">Mike Pence's fly: From Renaissance portraits to Salvador Dalí, artists used flies to make a point about appearances</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>When it comes to viral memes, if a user posts a meme on Instagram, it shows up in their followers’ home feed. From there, it appears in the feeds of followers of those followers and outwards from there. </p>
<p>Our intuition is that a few hops are enough to reach anyone on social media, and algorithms prove that right. <a href="https://research.fb.com/blog/2016/02/three-and-a-half-degrees-of-separation/">A 2016 study suggests it only takes four hops on average to connect any two accounts on Facebook</a>. The small world of social networks predicts that popular memes would then reach most accounts in short order. </p>
<p>The minimum number of steps needed to burn every node is called the <em>burning number</em> of the network. We can think of the burning number as a quantitative measure of how fast contagion spreads. The smaller the burning number is, the faster contagion spreads in the network. </p>
<h2>Dining in is better for you</h2>
<p>Imagine nine diners at a restaurant sitting in close quarters at a round table. In that case, we have a <em>clique</em> network, in which every node links to every other one. If one person carries COVID-19, then the chances are high that all the guests will be infected because they are all within the two-metre range of the infected individual. The burning number of a clique is 1, the lowest it can be.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An illustration showing the connections between nine people sitting around a table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=768&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=768&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=768&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A clique and line-up with nine nodes are shown. In the clique at the top representing diners at a table, the burning spreads in one step from the node 1. Burning a lineup with nine nodes takes three steps. In the first step, node 1 is burned. In the second step, burning spreads to the left and right of node 1 and we also burn node 2. In the last step, we burn node 3, and the burning spreads to every node.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In contrast, think of a lineup at a grocery store with one person infected. The infection potentially spreads only to those directly in front or behind them because the distance from one end of the line to the other is too large for the virus to spread. </p>
<p>For example, in a lineup with nine people, if someone in the middle is infected, it would take four steps to infect everyone. If the infected person is at the end of the line, it takes eight steps. In either case, the spread is slower than for our unlucky, hypothetical diners. </p>
<p>Network burning predicts that lineups are among the slowest kinds of networks for the spread of contagion. If there are <em>n</em> people in a lineup, the burning number is the square root of <em>n</em>. So if nine people are in line, the burning number is three, which is the minimum number of people who must be infected to spread the disease fastest to everyone in the line.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.internetmathematicsjournal.com/article/1599-how-to-burn-a-graph">A math conjecture predicts that in any possible network with <em>n</em> nodes, the burning number is at most the square root of <em>n</em></a>. While no one has proven that conjecture yet, the best-known result is that the burning number of a network is at most the square root of 1.5 times <em>n</em>. </p>
<p>The difference between the square root of n and the square root of 1.5 times <em>n</em> may not seem large, but the gap between them grows considerably for large <em>n</em>. If <em>n</em> is the world’s population of 7.8 billion, then the square root of <em>n</em> is about 88,318, and the square root of 1.5 times <em>n</em> is 108,167. </p>
<h2>What the math tells us</h2>
<p>Burning networks gives us a simplified but concise view of how contagion propagates in a network, and a measure of how rapidly contagion spreads to each node. While network burning doesn’t directly tell us how to slow the spread of a virus or halt a meme, it highlights that our interactions significantly affect our exposure to contagion. </p>
<p>How networks of interactions are wired has a profound impact on viral outbreaks, a fact especially relevant during these times. Remember that the next time you are in a physically distanced lineup. You are doing your part to slow the spread of COVID-19. And good luck avoiding the next breaking meme.</p>
<p>The math tells us so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153418/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Bonato receives funding from NSERC. </span></em></p>Our social connections and interactions form networks. Studying these networks reveal the ways in which both memes and viruses travel through populationsAnthony Bonato, Professor of Mathematics, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1477562020-10-08T14:56:24Z2020-10-08T14:56:24ZBeing outdoors doesn’t mean you’re safe from COVID-19 – a White House event showed what not to do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362365/original/file-20201008-20-13opw8r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=279%2C443%2C4479%2C2986&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, hugging another guest, along with Kellyanne Conway (left) and Notre Dame University President Rev. John Jenkins (right) tested positive for COVID-19.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chris-christie-greets-others-after-president-donald-j-trump-news-photo/1228859887">The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you think you’re safe from the coronavirus just because you’re outdoors, think again.</p>
<p>While the wind and the large volume of air make the outdoors less risky than being indoors, circumstances matter.</p>
<p>Someone who is infectious can cough or sneeze, or just talk and, if you happen to inhale those respiratory droplets or they plop into your eye, you can get infected. If you shake hands with an infected person and then touch your eyes, nose or mouth, you also run a chance of getting infected. You don’t have to be inhaling an infected person’s air for very long. What matters is the dose.</p>
<p>As an <a href="http://medicine.buffalo.edu/faculty/profile.html?ubit=trusso">infectious disease doctor</a>, I get a lot of questions from patients about COVID-19 risks. Here are some answers about the risks outdoors.</p>
<h2>Doesn’t wind make outside safer than inside?</h2>
<p>It’s true that the <a href="http://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc6197">wind helps disperse respiratory droplets</a> that can carry viruses.</p>
<p>When you’re indoors, one of the big concerns about how the coronavirus spreads is aerosols – tiny, light droplets people emit along with larger droplets when they breathe. These particles can <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-covid-19-superspreaders-are-talking-where-you-sit-in-the-room-matters-145966">linger in the air</a>, and the concentration can build up in enclosed, poorly ventilated spaces. There’s less of a risk in open outdoor settings because of the sheer volume of air and available space to physically distance.</p>
<p>At least one study, not yet peer reviewed, found COVID-19 patients were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272">nearly 20 times more likely</a> to have been infected indoors than outdoors.</p>
<p>But that doesn’t mean you’re in a protective bubble when outdoors.</p>
<h2>What behaviors could put you at risk outside?</h2>
<p>To get a sense of how easy it is to put yourself at risk outdoors, look at crowd photos from the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/the-interactions-of-rose-garden-ceremony-attendees-who-tested-positive-for-coronavirus/2020/10/03/b7564938-61a3-44f1-83c6-0c1551f0a518_video.html">White House Rose Garden event</a> on Sept. 26. About 200 people attended that ceremony, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/02/us/politics/trump-contact-tracing-covid.html">at least 12</a> tested positive for the virus within days, including President Donald Trump and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/04/15/833692377/how-the-coronavirus-has-affected-individual-members-of-congress">two senators</a>. When and where each person was infected isn’t known, but several behaviors at the Rose Garden ceremony raised the risk of getting or sharing the virus. </p>
<p>The first problem with this scene: Very few people were <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover-guidance.html">wearing face masks</a>.</p>
<p>With no mask, infectious people can be shedding the virus when they talk and there is nothing to stop the respiratory droplets. For people not yet infected, no mask means the virus has several ways to enter their bodies – nose and mouth as well as eyes. The lack of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8">masks</a> also raises the risk of getting a larger dose, and a higher viral load may mean a higher <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30196-1">likelihood of severe disease</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The crowd seated side-by-side in the Rose Garden." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362367/original/file-20201008-14-1a8vspd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362367/original/file-20201008-14-1a8vspd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362367/original/file-20201008-14-1a8vspd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362367/original/file-20201008-14-1a8vspd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362367/original/file-20201008-14-1a8vspd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362367/original/file-20201008-14-1a8vspd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362367/original/file-20201008-14-1a8vspd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Few people at the Rose Garden event were wearing protective masks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/guests-watch-as-u-s-president-donald-trump-introduces-7th-u-news-photo/1276846547">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>People were also seated <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/social-distancing.html">close together</a>. And before and after the ceremony, they mingled – indoors and outdoors – shaking hands, leaning in for close conversations and hugging each other.</p>
<p>Remember that just breathing expels respiratory droplets, and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm">loud, animated speech</a> like laughing or shouting expels more. We don’t yet know how much virus is needed to trigger symptoms, but those doses add up. So, you might get a small dose from a person sitting next to you, but if that person later gives you a big hug or shakes your hand, they could give you another dose. Or you might talk to someone else who is infectious for several minutes and inhale more virus particles.</p>
<p>All it takes is one person in the peak infectious period – the 24 to 48 hours before and after symptoms start – to spark a superspreader event.</p>
<h2>When do I have to wear a mask outdoors?</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-020-06067-8">Face masks lower your risk</a> of getting infected, and they also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376">reduce the amount of virus</a> you’re spreading if you’re infected.</p>
<p>If you’re running or walking, carry a mask with you. When you’re near other people, put it on. </p>
<p>If you’re sitting at an outdoor café, try to mask up between bites and sips, especially if your age or health or weight make you vulnerable to severe COVID-19.</p>
<p>The likelihood of a passing interaction from someone walking by a table is small, but it’s still possible. The safest spot when eating outdoors is a table away from high-traffic areas and upwind of everyone else.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UNCNM7AZPFg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>Is six feet of social distancing enough?</h2>
<p>Depending on where you are, maximize the distance between yourself and others. There’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-lower-your-coronavirus-risk-while-eating-out-restaurant-advice-from-an-infectious-disease-expert-138925">nothing magic about staying six feet apart</a>. Particles <a href="http://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.4756">generated by sneezes</a> can travel a lot farther than that.</p>
<p>Twelve or 15 feet is safer.</p>
<p>It’s all about minimizing risk. You can never drive that risk to zero when you’re in public.</p>
<h2>Can I still have people over for an outside party?</h2>
<p>Think of the coronavirus like a sexually transmitted disease – everyone claims to behave safely, but do you really know where they’ve been? <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/the-virus-didnt-stop-a-washington-socialite-from-throwing-a-backyard-soiree-then-the-tests-came-back-positive/2020/07/01/841041ba-ba19-11ea-bdaf-a129f921026f_story.html">It just takes one</a> infected person. Rapid COVID-19 tests <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02661-2">aren’t 100% accurate</a>, either, and are presently unavailable for most people.</p>
<p>To keep things safe for an outdoor gathering, set up tables for each social bubble – a family, for example. Keep the tables at least 15 to 20 feet apart. Set up food on individual plates in a central location and have people or each bubble go up separately. Don’t share utensils or food or glasses. Wear masks as much as possible, and don’t forget physical distancing.</p>
<p>There is a lot we still don’t know about the coronavirus, including what the long-term damage is. Regardless of how old you are or how healthy, do what you can to avoid the virus until there’s a vaccine. Even if you get over the illness quickly, we don’t know what the long-term consequences will be.</p>
<p>[<em>Research into coronavirus and other news from science</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-corona-research">Subscribe to The Conversation’s new science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147756/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas A. Russo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The outdoors is less risky than an enclosed room, but it isn’t a COVID-19-free zone. Here’s what you need to know.Thomas A. Russo, Professor and Chief, Infectious Disease, Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, University at BuffaloLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1355282020-04-14T12:20:29Z2020-04-14T12:20:29ZIgnaz Semmelweis, the doctor who discovered the disease-fighting power of hand-washing in 1847<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327549/original/file-20200413-177903-6l8e8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A simple, low-tech way to get rid of germs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/medical-personnel-hand-washing-dressed-in-medical-royalty-free-image/1212821218"> FatCamera/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the front-line defenses individuals have against the spread of the coronavirus can feel decidedly low-tech: <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/prevention.html">hand-washing</a>.</p>
<p>In fact, it was 19th-century Hungarian physician Ignaz Semmelweis who, after observational studies, first advanced the idea of “hand hygiene” in medical settings.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/handwashing/index.html">simple act of hand-washing</a> is a critical way to prevent the spread of germs. Here’s how Semmelweis, working in an obstetrics ward in Vienna in the 19th century, made the connection between dirty hands and deadly infection.</p>
<h2>Benefits of cleanliness, symbolic and real</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.4103/2008-7802.201923">history of hand-washing</a> extends back to ancient times, when it was largely a faith-based practice. The Old Testament, the Talmud and the Quran all mention hand-washing in the context of ritual cleanliness.</p>
<p>Ritual hand-washing appears to have come with public health implications. During the Black Death of the 14th century, for instance, the Jews of Europe had a distinctly lower rate of death than others. Researchers believe that hand-washing prescribed by their religion <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2004.05.005">probably served as protection during the epidemic</a>.</p>
<p>Hand-washing as a health care prerogative did not really surface until the mid-1800s, when a young Hungarian physician named Ignaz Semmelweis did an important observational study at Vienna General Hospital.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327551/original/file-20200413-177938-r4kf7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327551/original/file-20200413-177938-r4kf7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327551/original/file-20200413-177938-r4kf7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327551/original/file-20200413-177938-r4kf7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327551/original/file-20200413-177938-r4kf7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327551/original/file-20200413-177938-r4kf7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1052&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327551/original/file-20200413-177938-r4kf7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1052&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327551/original/file-20200413-177938-r4kf7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1052&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ignaz Philip Semmelweis (1818-1865)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ignaz-philip-semmelweis-hungarian-obstetrician-discovered-news-photo/113444168">Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After becoming disillusioned with the study of law, Semmelweis moved to the study of medicine, graduating with a medical degree from the University of Vienna in 1844. Having graduated from this prestigious institution, he believed he would be able to pursue a choice practice. He applied for positions in pathology and then medicine, but received rejections in both.</p>
<p>Semmelweis then turned to obstetrics, a relatively new area for physicians, previously dominated by midwifery, which was less prestigious and where it was easier to obtain a position. <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393326253">He began working in the obstetrics division</a> of the Vienna Hospital on July 1, 1846.</p>
<p>The leading cause of maternal mortality in Europe at that time was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/s0025727300000119">puerperal fever</a> – an infection, now known to be caused by the streptococcus bacterium, that killed postpartum women.</p>
<p>Prior to 1823, about 1 in 100 women died in childbirth at the Vienna Hospital. But after a policy change mandated that medical students and obstetricians perform autopsies in addition to their other duties, the mortality rate for new mothers suddenly jumped to 7.5%. What was going on?</p>
<p>Eventually, the Vienna Hospital opened a second obstetrics division, to be staffed entirely by midwives. The older, First Division, to which Semmelweis was assigned, was staffed only by physicians and medical students. Rather quickly it became apparent that the mortality rate in the first division was much higher than the second.</p>
<p>Semmelweis set out to investigate. He examined all the similarities and differences of the two divisions. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1128/9781555817220">only significant difference</a> was that male doctors and medical students delivered in the first division and female midwives in the second.</p>
<h2>Washing away germs from the dead</h2>
<p>Remember that at this time, the general belief was that bad odors – miasma – transmitted disease. It would be two more decades at least before germ theory – the idea that microbes cause disease – gained traction.</p>
<p>Semmelweis cracked the puerperal fever mystery after the death of his friend and colleague, pathologist Jakob Kolletschka. Kolletschka died after receiving a scalpel wound while performing an autopsy on a woman who’d died of puerperal fever. His autopsy revealed massive infection from puerperal fever.</p>
<p>Contagiousness now established, Semmelweis concluded that if his friend’s</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“general sepsis arose from the inoculation of cadaver particles, <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393326253">then puerperal fever must originate from the same source</a>. … The fact of the matter is that the transmitting source of those cadaver particles was to be found in the hands of students and attending physicians.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>No midwives ever participated in autopsies or dissections. Students and physicians regularly went between autopsies and deliveries, rarely washing their hands in between. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08998280.2010.11928658">Gloves were not commonly used</a> in hospitals or surgeries until late in the 19th century.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327550/original/file-20200413-177903-5qhytd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327550/original/file-20200413-177903-5qhytd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327550/original/file-20200413-177903-5qhytd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327550/original/file-20200413-177903-5qhytd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327550/original/file-20200413-177903-5qhytd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327550/original/file-20200413-177903-5qhytd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327550/original/file-20200413-177903-5qhytd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327550/original/file-20200413-177903-5qhytd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ignaz Semmelweis washing his hands in chlorinated lime water before attending to patients.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ignaz-semmelweis-washing-his-hands-in-chlorinated-lime-news-photo/517403466">Bettmann via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Realizing that chloride solution rid objects of their odors, Semmelweis mandated hand-washing across his department. Starting in May 1847, anyone entering the First Division had to wash their hands in a bowl of chloride solution. The incidence of puerperal fever and death <a href="https://doi.org/10.1128/9781555817220">subsequently dropped precipitously</a> by the end of the year.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, as in the case of his contemporary John Snow, who discovered that cholera was transmitted by water and not miasma, Semmelweis’ work <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0025727300043738">was not readily accepted by all</a>. The obstetrical chief, perhaps feeling upstaged by the discovery, refused to reappoint Semmelweis to the obstetrics clinic.</p>
<p>Semmelweis’ refusal to publish his work may have also contributed to his downfall. With little recognition during his lifetime, he <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393326253">eventually died from injuries</a> sustained in a Viennese insane asylum.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327552/original/file-20200413-132830-9emais.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327552/original/file-20200413-132830-9emais.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327552/original/file-20200413-132830-9emais.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327552/original/file-20200413-132830-9emais.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327552/original/file-20200413-132830-9emais.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327552/original/file-20200413-132830-9emais.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327552/original/file-20200413-132830-9emais.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327552/original/file-20200413-132830-9emais.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coronavirus has launched hand-washing into the spotlight.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-walks-past-a-coronavirus-public-information-campaign-news-photo/1206349532">SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Taking an old lesson to heart</h2>
<p>Although Semmelweis began the charge for hand hygiene in the 19th century, it has not always fallen on receptive ears.</p>
<p>The medical field now recognizes that soap and running water are the best way to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/00002727-200407000-00007">prevent, control and reduce infection</a>. But regular folks and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajic.2005.05.025">health care workers</a> still <a href="https://doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-141-1-200407060-00008">don’t always follow</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/ah980238">best practice guidelines</a>.</p>
<p>Hand-washing appears to get a bump in compliance in the wake of disease outbreaks. Take the example of the first major outbreak of SARS, which occurred in the Prince of Wales Hospital in Hong Kong in March 2003. Health authorities advised the public that hand-washing would help prevent spread of the disease, caused by a coronavirus. After the SARS outbreak, medical students at the hospital were much more likely <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajic.2005.05.025">to follow hand-washing guidelines</a>, according to one study.</p>
<p>I suspect the current pandemic of COVID-19 will change the way the <a href="https://globalhandwashing.org">public thinks about hand hygiene</a> going forward. In fact, White House coronavirus advisor and NIAID Director Anthony Fauci has said “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/491917-fauci-i-dont-think-we-should-shake-hands-ever-again">absolute compulsive hand-washing</a>” for everyone must be part of any eventual return to pre-pandemic life.</p>
<p>[<em>Get facts about coronavirus and the latest research.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=upper-coronavirus-facts">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter.</a>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135528/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leslie S. Leighton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A Hungarian obstetrician was the first to nail down the importance of handwashing to stop the spread of infectious disease.Leslie S. Leighton, Visiting Lecturer of History, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1353832020-04-03T12:43:57Z2020-04-03T12:43:57ZSocial distancing works – just ask lobsters, ants and vampire bats<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324766/original/file-20200401-23109-1oryhqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C0%2C6000%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Caribbean spiny lobsters normally live in groups, but healthy lobsters avoid members of their own species if they are infected with a deadly virus.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/caribbean-spiny-lobsters-royalty-free-image/921347248?adppopup=true">Humberto Ramirez/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Social distancing to combat COVID-19 is profoundly impacting society, leaving many people wondering whether it will actually work. As disease ecologists, we know that nature has an answer. </p>
<p>Animals as diverse as <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601721">monkeys</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/441421a">lobsters</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/insects3030789">insects</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2012.0856">birds</a> can detect and avoid sick members of their species. Why have so many types of animals evolved such sophisticated behaviors in response to disease? Because social distancing helps them survive. </p>
<p>In evolutionary terms, animals that effectively socially distance during an outbreak improve their chances of staying healthy and going on to produce more offspring, which also will socially distance when confronted with disease.</p>
<p>We study the diverse ways in which animals <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4h59toMAAAAJ&hl=en">use behaviors to avoid infection</a>, and why <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=23PgnnIAAAAJ&hl=en">behaviors matter for disease spread</a>. While animals have evolved a variety of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.05.001">behaviors that limit infection</a>, the ubiquity of social distancing in group-living animals tells us that this strategy has been favored again and again in animals faced with high risk of contagious disease. </p>
<p>What can we learn about social distancing from other animals, and how are their actions like and unlike what humans are doing now?</p>
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<h2>Feed the sick, but protect the queen</h2>
<p>Social insects are some of the most extreme practitioners of social distancing in nature. Many types of ants live in tight quarters with hundreds or even thousands of close relatives. Much like our day care centers, college dormitories and nursing homes, these colonies can create optimal conditions for spreading contagious diseases. </p>
<p>In response to this risk, ants have evolved the ability to socially distance. When a contagious disease sweeps through their society, both sick and healthy ants <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aat4793">rapidly change their behavior</a> in ways that slow disease transmission. Sick ants self-isolate, and healthy ants reduce their interaction with other ants when disease is present in the colony. </p>
<p>Healthy ants even “close rank” around the most vulnerable colony members – the queens and nurses – by keeping them isolated from the foragers that are most likely to introduce germs from outside. Overall, these measures are highly effective at limiting disease spread and keeping colony members alive.</p>
<p>Many other types of animals also choose exactly who to socially distance from, and conversely, when to put themselves at risk. For example, mandrills – a type of monkey – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2019.0869">continue to care for sick family members</a> even as they actively avoid sick individuals to whom they are not related. In an evolutionary sense, caring for a sick family member may allow an animal to pass on its genes through that family member’s offspring. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324714/original/file-20200401-23121-1frpcd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324714/original/file-20200401-23121-1frpcd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324714/original/file-20200401-23121-1frpcd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324714/original/file-20200401-23121-1frpcd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324714/original/file-20200401-23121-1frpcd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324714/original/file-20200401-23121-1frpcd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324714/original/file-20200401-23121-1frpcd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324714/original/file-20200401-23121-1frpcd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mandrills live in large groups in the rainforests of equatorial Africa. They will often groom other group members, but actively avoid sick mandrills unless they are close family members.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Mandrill_Family_Portrait_%2819830987756%29.jpg">Eric Kilby/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Further, some animals maintain essential social interactions in the face of sickness while foregoing less critical ones. For example, vampire bats continue to provide food for their sick groupmates, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13193">avoid grooming them</a>. This minimizes contagion risk while still preserving forms of social support that are most essential to keeping sick family members alive, such as food sharing. </p>
<p>These nuanced forms of social distancing minimize costs of disease while maintaining the benefits of social living. It should come as no surprise that evolution favors them in many types of animals.</p>
<h2>Altruism makes us human</h2>
<p>Human behavior in the presence of disease also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721411402596">bears the signature of evolution</a>. This indicates that our hominid ancestors faced many of the same pressures from contagious disease that we are facing today. </p>
<p>Like social ants, we are protecting the most vulnerable members of our society from COVID-19 infection by ensuring that older individuals and those with pre-existing conditions stay away from potentially contagious people. Like monkeys and bats, we also practice nuanced social distancing, reducing non-essential social contacts while still providing essential care for sick family members.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324720/original/file-20200401-23151-6yygi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324720/original/file-20200401-23151-6yygi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324720/original/file-20200401-23151-6yygi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324720/original/file-20200401-23151-6yygi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324720/original/file-20200401-23151-6yygi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324720/original/file-20200401-23151-6yygi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324720/original/file-20200401-23151-6yygi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324720/original/file-20200401-23151-6yygi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A black garden ant queen (upper left), surrounded by adult ants, larvae (left), eggs (middle) and a cocoon (right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hurtnica_pospolita.jpg">Pan weterynarz/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There also are important differences. For example, in addition to caring for sick family members, humans sometimes increase their own risk by caring for unrelated individuals, such as friends and neighbors. And health care workers go further, actively seeking out and helping precisely those who many of us carefully avoid. </p>
<p>Altruism isn’t the only behavior that distinguishes human response to disease outbreaks. Other animals must rely on subtle cues to detect illness among group members, but we have cutting-edge technologies that make it possible to detect pathogens rapidly and then isolate and treat sick individuals. And humans can communicate health threats globally in an instant, which allows us to proactively institute behaviors that mitigate disease. That’s a huge evolutionary advantage. </p>
<p>Finally, thanks to virtual platforms, humans can maintain social connections without direct physical contact. This means that unlike other animals, we can practice physical rather than social distancing, which lets us preserve some of the important benefits of group living while minimizing disease risk.</p>
<h2>Worth the disruption</h2>
<p>The evidence from nature is clear: Social distancing is an effective tool for reducing disease spread. It is also a tool that can be implemented more rapidly and more universally than almost any other. Unlike vaccination and medication, behavioral changes don’t require development or testing. </p>
<p>However, social distancing can also incur significant and sometimes unsustainable costs. Some highly social animals, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00265-014-1849-x">banded mongooses</a>, do not avoid group members even when they are visibly sick; the evolutionary costs of social distancing from their relatives may simply be too high. As we are currently experiencing, social distancing also imposes severe costs of many kinds in human societies, and these costs are often borne disproportionately by the most vulnerable people.</p>
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<p>Given that social distancing can be costly, why do so many animals do it? In short, because behaviors that protect us from disease ultimately allow us to enjoy social living – a lifestyle that offers myriad benefits, but also carries risks. By implementing social distancing when it’s necessary, humans and other animals can continue to reap the diverse benefits of social living in the long term, while minimizing the costs of potentially deadly diseases when they arise.</p>
<p>Social distancing can be profoundly disruptive to our society, but it can also stop a disease outbreak in its tracks. Just ask ants.</p>
<p>[<em>You need to understand the coronavirus pandemic, and we can help.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=upper-coronavirus-help">Read The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135383/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Using distance to avoid getting sick has deep evolutionary roots for humans and many other species.Dana Hawley, Professor of Biological Sciences, Virginia TechJulia Buck, Assistant Professor of Biology, University of North Carolina WilmingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1351042020-04-01T14:42:18Z2020-04-01T14:42:18ZShaping Africa’s urban areas to withstand future pandemics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324025/original/file-20200330-146666-1erc9yt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Urban areas are a fertile ground for contagion </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The power of cities comes from the number of interactions they enable, between people, firms and markets – they are centres of social interaction. For all their virtues, however, cities have a major downside. They are a <a href="https://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Glaeser-Sims-2015-Growth-brief.pdf">fertile ground for contagion</a>, such as the rapid spread of COVID-19. </p>
<p>This is because cities are by definition places of density, with large numbers of people living and interacting in close proximity. Furthermore, many cities are deeply embedded in national, regional and global networks. This is embodied by infrastructural features such as airports, ports and other transport terminals ferrying goods and people at a high frequency. As such, the potential for transmission rates of COVID-19 within them may be far higher relative to national averages.</p>
<p>This is aptly illustrated by New York City, which already accounts for approximately <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/new-york-coronavirus-cases-worldwide-covid19">half of all known cases in the US</a>. Perhaps even more shocking, it accounted for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/new-york-coronavirus-cases-worldwide-covid19">5% of all confirmed cases in the world</a> – and it is just one city of about 8.6 million people. </p>
<h2>Contagion in African cities</h2>
<p>Given the characteristics of many African cities, the situation, without appropriate mitigation measures, could be far worse. For example, density levels in certain parts of African cities, most notably in slums and other informal settlements, may be even higher than New York’s. It is estimated that about <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/25/kenyas-coronavirus-strategy-is-straight-out-colonial-playbook/">2/3rds of Nairobi’s population lives on just 6% of its land</a>. In Kampala, <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/03/26/africa-is-woefully-ill-equipped-to-cope-with-covid-19">71% of households sleep in a single room</a>. </p>
<p>These congested settlements have few amenities. Only <a href="https://www.oecd.org/water/GIZ_2018_Access_Study_Part%20I_Synthesis_Report.pdf">an estimated 56% of the urban population</a> in sub-Saharan Africa have access to piped water. And even those with access, they can spend <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2458-14-208">30 minutes or longer sourcing it</a>. </p>
<p>This begs the question whether frequent hand-washing – one of <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/stop-the-spread-of-germs.pdf">two of the main measures to prevent transmission</a> – is even feasible. The same goes for social distancing, the second recommended preventative measure, both given density and also because it runs contrary to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c12a09c8-6db6-11ea-89df-41bea055720b">many African societal norms, which are inherently deeply communal</a>.</p>
<p>At the same time, <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/urbanization-sub-saharan-africa">one of the drivers</a> of rural-urban migration in Africa is the relatively better access to services in the city. This includes health services. Data from the countries with already well-developed and funded health systems show that they are experiencing immense strain with COVID-19 patients. In the US, it is predicted that at least <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/upshot/coronavirus-biggest-worry-hospital-capacity.html">200,000 intensive care unit (ICU) beds</a> will be needed in the case of a moderate outbreak. The whole of Uganda on the other hand has <a href="https://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/ICU-bed-capacity-Uganda/688334-5495822-dkw5rc/index.html">55 ICU beds in 12 operational units</a>. It is clear that with similar infection rates African health systems would collapse. Yet people are still more likely to be treated in urban areas. In Uganda’s case, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883944119310597">80% of these ICU beds</a> are located in Kampala.</p>
<h2>Economic distress from lockdowns</h2>
<p>To reinforce social-distancing, many governments in Europe and US are enforcing strict temporary lockdown measures. African governments, which still lag behind in terms of the known infection rate, are quickly following suit – some with even harsher measures. Given that urban centres are major economic nodes they will naturally bear a disproportionate economic burden of any lockdowns. This effect will rapidly percolate through the whole economy.</p>
<p>Urban dwellers working in the informal sector will be the first and potentially some of the hardest hit. About <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/03/26/africa-is-woefully-ill-equipped-to-cope-with-covid-19">85% of workers do not receive a reported wage</a>. Rather in many African cities, the majority earn their daily keep from the informal service sector, particularly selling or providing manual labour. Here there is no option to work from home: both because of the lack of necessary infrastructure such as power and more importantly because their jobs are predicated on face-to-face interactions. </p>
<p>Even though they are working, their daily earnings are small. In Kampala, for example, a survey of informal sector firms showed that <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/860311505816462189/pdf/119806-REVISED-PUBLIC-The-wb-Book-2017-Report-web-Individual-Page-Layout.pdf">93% of them</a> are already operating below the poverty line. Therefore lockdowns, for these populations, will mean not earning a wage and affect their survival.</p>
<p>This is exacerbated as urban populations are largely beholden to food prices, given in general they are not able to grow their own food. Early indications already show that some countries like Ghana have seen <a href="https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2020/03/covid-19-virus-spread-prompts-food-insecurity-fears-in-africa/">rise in food prices by nearly 30% already</a> due to panic buying and disruptions in food supply chains. </p>
<p>This is particularly worrisome for some countries already concerned about a food crisis this year, due to the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-51618188">plague of locusts</a> affecting supplies. With the timelines of the overall COVID-19 crisis remaining unclear, feeding one’s family, particularly in urban areas, with no income and rising prices is already becoming an increasing struggle.</p>
<p>Lockdowns may support curbing transmissions, but by <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-much-will-global-poverty-increase-because-covid-19">potentially pushing millions more people across the continent below the poverty line</a>, it could have other detrimental, and potentially worse, longer-lasting effects beyond the health impact. Therefore, reshaping African cities in the pandemic’s aftermath to ensure they can be engines of economic growth in the future, will be key. </p>
<h2>Shaping the urban future</h2>
<p>Cities across the globe and throughout history have adapted and reinvented themselves in the face of crisis and disaster. <a href="https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/2020/03/30/how-covid-19-pandemic-will-change-our-cities">Some analysts</a> are predicting that cities in the US, will emerge and be reshaped by this crisis, for example, as a result of people working from home. This means the need for centrally located offices will diminish. </p>
<p>The nature of jobs is different in African cities. Working from home is not likely to be an option. Rather, it may even be that, in the aftermath of the crisis, rural-urban migration actually increases as people flock to cities in search of more economic opportunities.</p>
<p>Preparing for this by ensuring urbanisation is well managed will be critical to providing the engine to ramping up national economic growth.</p>
<p>A critical element of this and in particular to prepare for the next pandemic, is the need for cities to invest in productive infrastructure, focused on improving health outcomes. This <a href="http://www.crei.cat/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ponzetto_infrastructure_and_institutions-1.pdf">includes water and sewage infrastructure</a> as well as increasing the number of health facilities. </p>
<p>The density of cities that make them susceptible to disease, also make them more efficient to provide infrastructure to a large number of people. In managing and shaping Africa’s urban future there should be a central role for public health officials, working alongside planners, economists and others. This can help reduce the potential of contagion whilst maintaining the power of cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135104/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Astrid R.N. Haas is affiliated with the International Growth Centre. The views represented here are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IGC. </span></em></p>Densely populated urban areas are great drivers of economic development and innovation, but that also makes them a fertile ground for the spread of pandemics.Astrid R.N. Haas, Policy Director, International Growth CentreLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1156512019-04-29T10:05:30Z2019-04-29T10:05:30ZNon-thermal plasma: new technology could kill 99.9% of the deadly germs in the air<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271268/original/file-20190428-194616-1xsapq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">DimaBerlin/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>You can live without food for three weeks and without water for up to three days. But you can’t live without air for more than three short minutes. It’s not just the abundance of air that matters – the quality is essential, too. Unfortunately, air can be contaminated with dangerous germs known as airborne pathogens, such as bacteria and viruses. </p>
<p>Airborne diseases are very easily transmitted, and can result in respiratory illness that can be life threatening. It’s therefore no wonder that outbreaks of airborne infectious diseases are a major public health concern, and that researchers are working hard to come up with technologies to provide clean air. So far, however, such technologies have had limited success. </p>
<p>Now a new study suggests that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonthermal_plasma">non-thermal plasma</a> – a cool gas made up of electrically charged particles, despite having no overall charge – could inactivate airborne viruses and <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6463/ab1466/pdf">provide sterile air</a>. Although the technology has a long history and many applications (in medicine and food industry), this is a completely new use for it. </p>
<h2>Devastating outbreaks</h2>
<p>Viruses that can spread through the air include <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-pandemic-influenza-is-so-deadly-revealed-103115">influenza (flu)</a>, common cold (rhinovirus), varicella zoster (chicken pox), mumps and measles. Measles in particular has been labelled a <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/04/24/measles-half-million-uk-children-unvaccinated/">public health time bomb</a> as many parents fail to vaccinate their children. Importantly, vaccination is the only way to completely prevent getting measles.</p>
<p>Infected individuals can transmit airborne viruses through droplets and small particles excreted during sneezing and coughing. These viruses can spread very quickly from person to person through air, especially in crowded areas such as schools and nursing homes.</p>
<p>Flu is one of the most common airborne viruses and <a href="https://theconversation.com/flu-why-this-years-outbreak-is-one-of-the-worst-89802">it is very contagious</a>. Illness may range from mild to severe respiratory disease and even death, with symptoms including sudden onset of fever, cough, sore throat, runny nose, headache, malaise and muscle and joint pain. Hospitalisation and deaths due to influenza virus can occur in high-risk groups including children, the elderly, pregnant women, individuals with a weakened immune system – such as HIV or cancer patients – and some individuals with chronic illnesses. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271269/original/file-20190428-194603-cvi4cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271269/original/file-20190428-194603-cvi4cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271269/original/file-20190428-194603-cvi4cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271269/original/file-20190428-194603-cvi4cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271269/original/file-20190428-194603-cvi4cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271269/original/file-20190428-194603-cvi4cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271269/original/file-20190428-194603-cvi4cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flu virus under the microscope.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">pinkeyes/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to WHO, the flu results in <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)">more than 3m cases</a> of severe illness per year and about 290,000-650,000 deaths. The most lethal pandemic of influenza virus was the Spanish flu (H1N1) in 1918-1919 that infected about a quarter of the global population and caused more than 40m deaths. Newly emerged airborne viruses such as <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/sars/">Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)</a> also <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/pr2004163">spread quickly</a> from China to many countries all over the world.</p>
<p>Treatment of mild airborne viral infections include rest and fluids. However, there are no specific antiviral drugs for the treatment of severe infections. It is also very hard to prevent yourself catching them, though you can reduce exposure through some good habits such as regular hand washing. If you have an infection, you can reduce the risk of passing them on by covering sneezes and coughs with a tissue or a hospital mask.</p>
<h2>Clearing the air</h2>
<p>There are air disinfection methods currently available, but they <a href="http://www.inive.org/members_area/medias/pdf/Inive%5CIAQVEC2007%5CBolashikov.pdf">have several limitations</a>. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultraviolet_germicidal_irradiation">Ultraviolet germicidal irradiation</a> (UVGI), for example, is a disinfection method that uses ultraviolet light to kill or inactivate microorganisms by destroying their DNA so that they cannot reproduce inside the human body. However, over-exposure to UVGI has <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12150488">adverse health effect</a>, leading to skin erythema (superficial reddening of the skin) and a painful eye condition known as photokeratitis.</p>
<p>Air filtration is a good method to clean the air by <a href="https://molekule.com/blog/pros-cons-hepa-filter/">passing it through a filter</a> which removes particles and stops outside pathogens from penetrating into buildings such as healthcare facilities. However, some airborne pathogens are too small to be removed and can pass through air filters.</p>
<p>The new method developed by researchers at the University of Michigan does offer hope though. Their study, published in the Journal of Physics, shows that a non-thermal plasma can inactivate 99.9% of airborne viruses through releasing energetic, charged fragments of air molecules that can <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6463/ab1466/pdf">destroy viruses in less than a second</a>. The non-thermal plasma can also kill bacteria <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-6915619/Air-filter-kill-99-9-deadly-bacteria-viruses-floating-air.html">through destruction of their cell wall</a>. </p>
<p>The plasma was produced in a non-thermal plasma reactor. When pathogens in the air pass through it, they <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/nonthermal-plasma">react with its unstable atoms</a> called radicals (such as ozone). These alter the lipids, proteins and nucleic acids of the microorganisms they encounter – killing the pathogens or rendering them harmless. The device also works by filtering pathogens from the air stream.</p>
<p>Combining filtration and inactivation of airborne pathogens will provide a more efficient way of providing sterile air than current devices. The research team has already begun testing the reactor on ventilation air streams at a pig farm to determine its efficacy in preventing the spread of airborne pathogens.</p>
<p>But while the device is effective, is it safe? We know that ozone is <a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/TOP08-98/page010.html">linked to respiratory conditions</a>. But the researchers say that ozone exposure from the device is within regulation standards, meaning it shouldn’t constitute a safety hazard. </p>
<p>So it looks like non-thermal plasma reactors have the potential to replace the traditional face mask and provide sterile air – especially in crowded areas such as on public transport, and in schools and hospitals.</p>
<p>Given how difficult it is to prevent the transmission of airborne disease, this is great news. Although we can often choose what food to eat and what beverages to drink, we cannot, after all, choose what air we breathe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115651/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Manal Mohammed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new reactor may soon be able to safely disinfect the air in crowded spaces.Manal Mohammed, Lecturer, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1050832018-10-18T14:28:30Z2018-10-18T14:28:30ZHow the stigma of contagion keeps alive Romantic notions of how the Brontës died<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241207/original/file-20181018-41129-18uaz2v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The three Brontë sisters with their brother Branwell.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Woodend, Scarborough</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Bizarrely, the idea that <a href="https://theconversation.com/brontes-under-the-influence-the-legacy-of-branwells-drinking-85649">Branwell</a> Brontë <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-incest-became-part-of-the-bronte-family-story-100059">had sex</a> with his sister <a href="https://www.bl.uk/people/emily-bronte">Emily</a> appears to have been more palatable than the idea that he might have given her tuberculosis – or that the infection might have passed to <a href="http://www.annebronte.org/">Anne</a> from either sibling. Those documenting the lives of the Brontës since the late 19th century have been curiously reluctant to acknowledge this fact. </p>
<p>Branwell, Emily, and Anne all died from various forms of tuberculosis between September 1848 and May 1849. All three had lived together at Haworth Parsonage in Yorkshire with their sister <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-charlotte-bronte-still-speaks-to-us-200-years-after-her-birth-57802">Charlotte</a> (who managed to last until 1855 when she too succumbed to tuberculosis). Branwell and Emily died there, and Anne died on a final trip to Scarborough, where she is buried.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241236/original/file-20181018-67167-ytlqox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241236/original/file-20181018-67167-ytlqox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241236/original/file-20181018-67167-ytlqox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241236/original/file-20181018-67167-ytlqox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241236/original/file-20181018-67167-ytlqox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241236/original/file-20181018-67167-ytlqox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241236/original/file-20181018-67167-ytlqox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Branwell Brontë.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Branwell_Bront%C3%AB#/media/File:Branwell.gif">Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>We know today that <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/tuberculosis-tb/causes/">tuberculosis is contagious</a>, and particularly so between family members living in close quarters. Yet the idea that one Brontë sibling might have infected or been infected by another still seems to be taboo in Brontë biography and adaptation.</p>
<p>Only Claire Harman’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/oct/31/charlotte-bronte-by-claire-harman-review-biography">biography of Charlotte Brontë</a> (2015) and Beth Torgerson’s <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9781403967961">Reading The Brontë Body</a> (2005) have suggested the possibility of infection, even briefly. So how and why has contagion largely been written out of the story of Branwell’s, Emily’s and Anne’s deaths? </p>
<h2>The contagion taboo</h2>
<p>The way we think about tuberculosis has changed dramatically since <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16402521">Robert Koch discovered</a> the tubercle bacillus in 1882. As Katherine Byrne has explained in <a href="https://www.bsls.ac.uk/reviews/romantic-and-victorian/katherine-byrne-tuberculosis-and-the-victorian-literary-imagination/">Tuberculosis and the Victorian Literary Imagination</a>, before Koch’s discovery “consumption” had often been thought of as a “mysterious, ethereal wasting disease”. It became “an identifiable bacterial infection” by the end of the 19th century, and this was also when the term “tuberculosis” started to replace “consumption”. </p>
<p>By the mid-20th century, the tuberculosis sufferer was no longer thought of as delicate or exceptional. Now that the infection could be clearly seen in X-rays, and treated with often brutal surgery, the tubercular body seemed much less Romantic. TB was a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Spitting-Blood-tuberculosis-Helen-Bynum/dp/0199542058">public health problem</a>, and those who contracted it often faced isolation and social stigma.</p>
<p>Yet in this same period, biographies about the Brontës described their deaths from rather personal, individual illness, as though the discoveries made about the disease in the intervening century had never happened. The “consumption” from which the siblings died in these accounts often seems to have little in common with the disease which was by then commonly known as tuberculosis. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241227/original/file-20181018-67194-1rpjkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241227/original/file-20181018-67194-1rpjkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241227/original/file-20181018-67194-1rpjkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241227/original/file-20181018-67194-1rpjkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241227/original/file-20181018-67194-1rpjkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241227/original/file-20181018-67194-1rpjkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241227/original/file-20181018-67194-1rpjkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anne, Emily and Charlotte Brontë, who all died of tuberculosis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bront%C3%AB_family#/media/File:The_Bront%C3%AB_Sisters_by_Patrick_Branwell_Bront%C3%AB_restored.jpg">National Portrait Gallery</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1947 alone, <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/356046">Ernest Raymond</a>, <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Bront%C3%ABs_Charlotte_and_Emily.html?id=XC08AQAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y">Laura L Hinkley</a> and <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Brontes-Thames-Hudson-Literary-Lives/dp/0500260168">Phyllis Bentley</a> all told a story which stressed Branwell’s alcoholism, Emily’s grief, and Anne meekly following her two siblings to the grave. These biographers, and many more in the late 1940s and the 1950s, stressed both weather and emotion as causes of death. They created an aura of predestined tragedy around the Brontës which proved difficult to displace in the years which followed.</p>
<p>Films and TV dramas showed the same causes for the Brontës’ deaths. Granada TV’s <a href="https://www.bronte.org.uk/bronte-shop/dvd/322/the-brontes-of-haworth">The Brontës of Haworth</a> (1973) has Branwell’s burial immediately followed by Emily clasping the table as a whistling wind comes in through the parsonage door. She coughs, sickens and dies, and Anne quietly follows.</p>
<p>Andre Téchiné’s <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0079920/">Les Sœurs Brontë</a> (1979) portrays an unusually close relationship between Branwell and Emily throughout. So when Branwell dies, Emily is emotionally, not bacterially, infected. She puts on his coat and sobs until her sobs become coughs. She is soon on her deathbed refusing the doctor, while Anne stands timidly in the hallway, meekly taking her own medicine from a spoon.</p>
<p>In 2016, BBC Two’s documentary <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5660556/">Being the Brontës</a> described the sisters’ “frail bodies” giving up on them “so young,” again suggesting a kind of fatalism about their deaths. Carl Barnes’s brilliantly funny musical <a href="https://www.bronte.org.uk/bronte-200/events/679/wasted/680">Wasted</a>, however, seems to deliberately reference the sheer absurdity of so much death in one family. Branwell is handed copies of his sisters’ published works and then immediately dies. Emily sings that she is a “Goth before my time” and then dies. Anne laments a miserable life in which she has never been touched by a desiring hand – and then dies.</p>
<p>Whether with surreal humour or with pathos, the Brontës’ deaths have often been presented as though they were all characters in a novel. It seems as though we want Emily, in particular, to have died because she was ready to do so, or because a tragic fate willed that it was her time.</p>
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<h2>A little more reality</h2>
<p>Perhaps the more mundane suggestion that one sibling caught the disease from another, or from anyone else, undermines the idea that the Brontës were as unique or Romantic as we have often liked to think.</p>
<p>Wasted contains swearing, anachronism, and sexual references. Sally Wainwright’s <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5594080/">To Walk Invisible</a> (2016) also invited us to contemplate the Brontës with Yorkshire accents, and a swearing, drug-addled Branwell. There seems to be space now for a less reverential, Romanticised approach to the siblings. Perhaps it is time to accept that the Brontës didn’t die from melancholy, weather, or death wishes, but because they were infected with bacteria. </p>
<p>A drama or biography which allowed this possibility would open up some fascinating new ways to think about the Brontës and their work. I’ve written <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/663152/summary">elsewhere</a> about the importance of contagion theories and the rabies virus in Charlotte Brontë’s <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/18827/shirley-by-charlotte-bronte/9780679640097/">Shirley</a>, but there is still more to be said about contagion, disease, and the Brontës.</p>
<p>All three sisters wrote about “consumptive” characters, from <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/18823/jane-eyre-by-charlotte-bronte/9780307455192/">Jane Eyre’s</a> Helen Burns to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-emily-brontes-wuthering-heights-is-a-cult-classic-100748">Wuthering Heights’s</a> Frances Hindley to <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/329102/agnes-grey-by-anne-bronte/9780140432107/readers-guide/">Agnes Grey’s</a> labourer Mark Wood. Widening our understanding of tuberculosis in the lives of these extraordinary women would help us to read their novels afresh.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105083/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Waugh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the myth of consumption as an ethereal, wasting disease, the more prosaic truth is that the Brontës likely infected one another with tuberculosis.Jo Waugh, Senior Lecturer in English Literature, York St John UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/834542017-09-05T12:13:08Z2017-09-05T12:13:08ZEnglish riots 2011: new research shows why crowd behaviour isn’t contagious<p>Bad behaviour can spread quickly. Riots and uprisings – and violence and aggression more generally – can grow and proliferate in such a way that they’re often described as being “contagious”, like a disease. In fact, contagion is one the most persuasive metaphors for explaining collective behaviour.</p>
<p>It seems to capture something so fundamental in human behaviour that it is <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1354067X15601190">invoked to explain</a> both the spread of simple behaviours like smiling and yawning, and more complex interactions such as the spread of ideas in society or rapid changes in financial markets.</p>
<p>But despite the apparent success of this metaphor, research evidence suggests that such language actually conceals more than it reveals. As such, there are better ways to think about and explain the process of influence among large groups of people.</p>
<p>Specifically, new research my colleagues and I have carried out on the August 2011 riots in England suggests the violence did not spread mindlessly. Instead, we found that people were influenced by a sense of shared identity against the authorities, that transcended even the “postcode rivalries” of local gangs.</p>
<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article-abstract/57/4/964/2623988">Our preliminary work on the riots</a> that spread across English cities suggests social identity – rather than simple spontaneous contagion – shaped much of the behaviour that took place. First of all, not everyone in the affected cities joined in. Those that did <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1741659016667438">shared an anti-police identity</a>.</p>
<p>Second, many of those young people who did join in would more typically have seen each other as rivals, based on long-standing conflicts between different districts of the city. We found that the shared antagonism towards the police meant that these rivalries became superseded by a stronger group identity. The feeling of power this created among participants is what helped the riots grow and spread.</p>
<p>This idea is in stark contrast to the typical description of crowd behaviour as contagious, which has long been used to undermine and attack the actions and motivation of large groups of people. The first use of the term “contagion” in a psychological sense was by the French historian Hippolyte Taine in his <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0963662516639872">1876 study of the French Republic</a>. Taine borrowed from the terminology of medicine (not only “contagion”, but also “feverishness” and “delirium”) to capture what he saw as the barbaric mentality of the “mob”. </p>
<p>Plagiarising Taine’s ideas, the crowd theorist <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2044-8309.1996.tb01113.x/abstract">Gustave Le Bon (1895)</a> defined contagion as uncritical passive social influence, arguing that any sentiment or behaviour could easily sweep through a crowd. He explicitly tried to use psychology as a weapon in a war against the working class “masses”, suggesting that if people lost their reason when they gathered in a crowd, there was no point reasoning with them and force was justified.</p>
<p>In this early usage, we can see the defining features of the contagion concept and some of its problems. First, comparing social influence to a disease implies that influence in crowds is something bad. Second, it suggests the spread is mindless, or even irrational, because it does not involve cognition.</p>
<p>Modern versions of the contagion concept have inherited these assumptions to varying degrees, meaning they can’t explain some important features of influence, both in crowds and between individuals. In their 1969 critique of Le Bon’s account, the social psychologists Stanley Milgrim and Hans Toch pointed out that contagion couldn’t explain why riot police are impervious to the rousing effects of a demagogue, unlike others present in the same crowd. Similarly, Steve Reicher’s well-known <a href="http://www.bbcprisonstudy.org/includes/site/files/files/1984%20EJSP%20St%20Pauls.pdf">study of the 1980 St Paul’s riot</a> noted that while some behaviours did spread in the crowd (such as throwing stones at police) others did not (such as throwing stones at a bus).</p>
<h2>A new account</h2>
<p>Instead of a model of indiscriminate contagion to explain the way influence within and between crowds work, we need to use the notion of <a href="http://www.ark143.org/wordpress2/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Tajfel-Turner-1979-An-Integrative-Theory-of-Intergroup-Conflict.pdf">social identity</a>, which means our definition of ourselves based on our membership of groups. Our group membership might change from context to context. For example, we might define ourselves as an Arsenal supporter in a football context and as as a Christian in a religious context. This means different sources of influence can also vary according to the context.</p>
<p>Psychologists have shown that this social identity principle helps explain the spread of relatively simple behaviour, such as emotional responses. For example, <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2011-07236-009">one study</a> involved showing a group of psychology students images of people displaying anger and fear. They were more likely to mimic the emotions if the people were described as other psychology students than if they were labelled as economics students. </p>
<p><a href="http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk/projects?ref=ES%252FN01068X%252F1">The research</a> my colleagues and I are conducting applies these ideas about social identity to a range of behaviours. Some types of simple behaviour often described contagious, <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/27858677">such as yawning</a>, really do seem automatic. Others (such as scratching) may depend more on the identity of the person the behaviour originates from. Our research will help to determine which behaviours are which.</p>
<p>Critics could point to the hundreds of experiments that provide evidence that some behaviour really is contagious, including relatively complex actions such as aggression. But the social identity research suggests that this may be because participants in the experiments share an implicit social identity with the target (such as “students”) and it is this that explains how they are influenced.</p>
<p>One of the features that distinguishes crowds from individuals is power. Our new theory is that the 2011 riots spread from location to location in part because <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-4560.2009.01622.x/full">participation gave individuals a greater feeling of empowerment</a>. Shared identity led to greater expectations of support and these expectations of support led to action against the police. The police’s weak response encouraged even more action, helping the violence to spread to other targets. This was the case both for the original rioters and for others who were not initially present but also identified against the police, who heard about the events and then joined in. </p>
<p>This kind of evidence suggests that we should abandon the idea of “contagion” and instead find different ways to talk and think about how people are influenced, in crowds and more generally. There are other terms such as “spread” or “transmission” that more accurately describe the process. The advantage of using these more neutral terms is that we avoid misunderstanding the behaviour of people in crowds and treating it like a disease.</p>
<p><em>John Drury is speaking about his research on the idea of crowds and contagious behaviour at the 2017 <a href="https://www.britishsciencefestival.org/event/the-contagion-of-behaviour/">British Science Festival</a> on 6th September.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83454/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Drury receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>Rioters were influenced by a shared anti-police identity – not just mindless violence.John Drury, Reader in Social Psychology, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/750612017-07-12T20:06:38Z2017-07-12T20:06:38ZHow infectious diseases have shaped our culture, habits and language<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171398/original/file-20170530-16303-1clhh37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Bubonic plague slowed urbanisation, industrial development and economic growth in Europe for many years.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is the last article in our four-part package looking at infectious diseases and how they’ve influenced our culture and evolution. Read the other articles <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/infectious-diseases-package-40443">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Despite being so small they can’t be seen with the naked eye, pathogens that cause human disease have greatly affected the way humans live for centuries. Many infectious diseases have been significant enough to affect how and where we live, our economies, our cultures and daily habits. And many of these effects continue long after the diseases have been eliminated.</p>
<p>Infectious diseases have changed the structure and numbers of people living in communities. </p>
<p>The European bubonic plague, or “Black Death” (1348-1350), identified by painful swollen lymph nodes and dark blotches on the skin, killed 80% of those infected. At <a href="http://www.coloradotech.edu/resources/blogs/november-2012/pandemic-2">least 20 million people died</a>, which was about two-thirds of the European population at the time. It <a href="http://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=A1507C">slowed urbanisation, industrial development and economic growth</a> as people left cities and reverted to rural and agricultural life. Those who survived, however, were highly sought after for work.</p>
<p>The accidental introduction of measles to Fiji (1875) by people travelling between Fiji and the West caused massive numbers of deaths in communities previously not exposed to the disease. In a few months <a href="http://jmvh.org/article/pacific-island-societies-destabilised-by-infectious-diseases/">20-25% of Fijians</a> and nearly all of the 69 chiefs died. The leadership vacuum and loss of working-age population <a href="http://jmvh.org/article/pacific-island-societies-destabilised-by-infectious-diseases/">became an opportunity</a> for the colonial government to import labourers from other nations to work in the agricultural industries.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171402/original/file-20170530-16310-1vx7zg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171402/original/file-20170530-16310-1vx7zg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171402/original/file-20170530-16310-1vx7zg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171402/original/file-20170530-16310-1vx7zg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171402/original/file-20170530-16310-1vx7zg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171402/original/file-20170530-16310-1vx7zg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171402/original/file-20170530-16310-1vx7zg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171402/original/file-20170530-16310-1vx7zg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Plague slowed economic growth in Europe as people left the cities in droves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the Caribbean island Hispaniola <a href="http://web.monroecc.edu/scholarsday/SDRhome">it’s estimated</a> that within 50 years of the arrival of Columbus, his crew and their “pathogens” (like measles, influenza and smallpox), the indigenous Taino people were virtually extinct. This pattern of large death tolls among Indigenous populations in the Americas is repeated in many locations, causing loss of traditional ways of life and cultural identity, and changing the course of their history.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, introduction of an infectious disease into a susceptible population was not always accidental. “Germ warfare” was a strategy used in many colonisation and war efforts. This includes North American Indigenous populations (<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1038/sj.embor.embor849/abstract">there are reports</a> of blankets from smallpox-infected corpses being deliberately distributed in the late 1700s); bodies of dead animals or humans being thrown into water supplies <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1038/sj.embor.embor849/abstract">during warfare in Italy in the 12th century</a>; and saliva from rabid dogs or the blood of leprosy patients being used by the Spanish against <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1038/sj.embor.embor849/abstract">French enemies in Italy in the 15th century</a>. </p>
<h2>Changing global economics</h2>
<p>Infectious diseases, as well as the search for cures, have had many influences on economies over the centuries. In 1623, the <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Quinine.html?id=K8Q53xW1ie8C&redir_esc=y">death of ten cardinals</a> and hundreds of their attendants led Pope Urban VII to declare that a cure for malaria must be found.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171404/original/file-20170530-16306-bjcz2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171404/original/file-20170530-16306-bjcz2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171404/original/file-20170530-16306-bjcz2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171404/original/file-20170530-16306-bjcz2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171404/original/file-20170530-16306-bjcz2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171404/original/file-20170530-16306-bjcz2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171404/original/file-20170530-16306-bjcz2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171404/original/file-20170530-16306-bjcz2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Once it was discovered quinine could treat malaria it became more valuable than gold.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This was a common risk in Rome, where <em>mala aria</em> (“bad air” from marshes thought to be its origin) had existed since late antiquity. Jesuit priests travelled from Europe to South America to learn about local treatments. <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Quinine.html?id=K8Q53xW1ie8C&redir_esc=y">In 1631, they identified quinine</a>, made from the bark of the local cinchona tree in Peru, as a cure. </p>
<p>After that discovery there was a race to control quinine in order to keep armies fighting European wars, including the Napoleonic, and attempting to capture territories. At this time quinine <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Quinine.html?id=K8Q53xW1ie8C&redir_esc=y">became a commodity more precious than gold</a>.</p>
<p>In the late 1880s Tunisia experienced severe infectious disease epidemics of cholera and typhoid, and famines, which so badly depleted its economy that it was unable to pay off its debts. This made it <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Empires-Sun-Struggle-Mastery-Africa/dp/1780226187">vulnerable to French occupation</a> and then colonisation.</p>
<p>In recent times, it has been estimated that the HIV epidemic in South Africa may have <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/publication/economic-implications-epidemics-old-and-new-working-paper-54">reduced its gross domestic product (GDP) by 17%</a> (from 1997 to 2010) and that SARS cost East Asia <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/publication/economic-implications-epidemics-old-and-new-working-paper-54">around $US15 billion</a>, (0.5% of GDP).</p>
<h2>Changing the foods we eat</h2>
<p>The origins of many food taboos appear to be linked to infectious diseases. These include prohibitions on drinking raw animal blood, on sharing cooking and eating utensils and plates between meat and other foods, and on eating pork in Judaism and Islam (most likely concerned about <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19563636">dangerous pig tapeworms</a>).</p>
<p>Newer examples of these food exclusions that are still the norm today include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>consumption of raw milk being illegal in many countries, to prevent spread of bovine (cow) tuberculosis</p></li>
<li><p>not eating soft cheeses when pregnant to avoid contracting listeria, which can cause miscarriages and stillbirths</p></li>
<li><p>trying to stop people licking the cake bowl because of the risk of egg-borne salmonella bacteria.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Adding words to our languages</h2>
<p>Many words and expressions commonly used in English have origins linked to an infectious disease. One such common phrase, used for a person who may not have symptoms of an infectious disease but can transmit it, is to call them a Typhoid Mary. In 1906 Mary Mallon, a cook, was the first healthy person identified in the USA as a carrier of the typhoid bacilli that causes typhoid fever, a serious disease for the Western world in the 19th century (but which globally exists and has often existed in poor communities). </p>
<p><a href="http://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=A1507C">One public health engineer traced an outbreak in Oyster Bay</a> and a path of outbreaks wherever Mary worked. In New York, she was put into isolation where she stayed until she died nearly three decades later.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171406/original/file-20170530-16303-chzz37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171406/original/file-20170530-16303-chzz37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171406/original/file-20170530-16303-chzz37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171406/original/file-20170530-16303-chzz37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171406/original/file-20170530-16303-chzz37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171406/original/file-20170530-16303-chzz37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171406/original/file-20170530-16303-chzz37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171406/original/file-20170530-16303-chzz37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Feeling ‘lousy’ comes from the poor feeling experienced when suffering a lice infestation, perhaps caused by anaemia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other such additions to our everyday conversations include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>“God bless you” after someone sneezes is said as it signalled that someone was unwell, perhaps seriously. It’s credited to St Gregory the Great, although words wishing the sneezer safety from disease have been found in ancient Greek and Roman.</p></li>
<li><p>the phrase “off colour” appears to have derived from the late 1800s where a diamond and then other items that were not their natural or acceptable colour were “off colour”, or defective. It soon extended to describe being unwell.</p></li>
<li><p>feeling lousy means feeling poorly. A person infested with lice often scratches, may be anaemic from the lice feeding on their blood, and doesn’t feel well.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The 14th-century French brought us two terms used in infectious diseases: “<em>contagion</em>” meaning touching/contact; and disease from <em>des</em> (lack of) <em>ease</em> (comfort). And the 16th-century term epidemic is from the French <em>epi</em> – among, <em>demos</em> – people.</p>
<p>So pathogens evolve with us and have shaped our lives and will remain one of the forces that we adapt to as we progress through human history.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read the first three instalments in the series:</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/four-of-the-most-lethal-infectious-diseases-of-our-time-and-how-were-overcoming-them-78101">Four of the most lethal infectious diseases of our time and how we’re overcoming them</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="http://theconversation.com/how-infectious-diseases-have-driven-human-evolution-75057">How infectious diseases have driven human evolution</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="http://theconversation.com/how-we-change-the-organisms-that-infect-us-74625">How we change the organisms that infect us</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75061/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maxine Whittaker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite being so small they can’t be seen with the naked eye, pathogens that cause human disease have greatly affected the way humans live for centuries.Maxine Whittaker, Dean, Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/678052016-12-22T13:47:20Z2016-12-22T13:47:20ZFrom creepy clowns to the dancing plague – when phobias are contagious<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150531/original/image-20161216-18030-1yuc7z1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nothing sinister about this dark, misty forest...</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/pic-233530384/stock-photo-woman-walking-in-foggy-forest-during-autumn.html">Tom Tom</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most of us have something we say we’re afraid of, whether it be spiders, needles, or something more unusual like zombies. But when push comes to shove, we get rid of eight-legged beasts, will have that injection, or manage to sit through an episode of The Walking Dead – albeit behind the safety of a sofa cushion.</p>
<p>Fear and worry are intrinsic to being human, and it is common in early childhood to develop some fears that can be troubling and upsetting. Many little ones will cry at night, saying they are afraid of the dark, or of the monster under their bed, but as adults we can just brush these thoughts off. Though there is usually no harm waiting to befall us, evolutionary theorists think that children are <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/why-we-worry/201405/what-are-you-so-afraid">biologically predisposed to learn certain fears</a> to protect themselves from danger. This explains some of the most common phobias, such as fear of insects, snakes and heights.</p>
<p>Fear directed at objects, events or situations – “phobias” – in childhood are perfectly normal. They come and go, rarely requiring special attention or intervention. The list of phobias appears to be limitless, quite literally ranging from A to Z: from anatidaephobia, the fear that a duck is watching you, to zelophobia, a fear of jealousy.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Pxh9T-vGyIY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Phobias <a href="http://www.theravive.com/therapedia/Specific-Phobia-DSM--5-300.29-(ICD--10--CM-Multiple-Codes)">only become clinically relevant</a> if they occur at an inappropriate age – usually considered to be past 13 years old – and persist for six months or more, impacting significantly upon a person’s daily functioning. If this is the case they are referred to as “specific phobias”. Many specific phobias can be traced back to early triggering events, usually a traumatic experience at an early age. In childhood, the individual is unable to recognise that the fear is irrational. Even though evidence presented to them may show that there is no threat or danger, reasoning is rarely effective. </p>
<p>In adulthood, the individual is more likely to recognise that their fear is irrational and unreasonable, yet the physical manifestations of the phobia – trembling, shortness of breath, sweating and rapid heartbeat – are by no means less extreme or distressing. But this is not always the case. Adults can be swayed into believing an irrational phobia – and can even have their phobias set off by a similar fear in another person.</p>
<h2>Catching contagions</h2>
<p>Between the 14th and 17th centuries, a “plague” spread across Europe, <a href="http://thepsychologist.bps.org.uk/volume-22/edition-7/dancing-plagues-and-mass-hysteria">forcing victims to dance uncontrollably</a>, as well as exhibit other strange behaviours. Physicians at the time <a href="http://www.history.com/news/ask-history/what-was-the-dancing-plague-of-1518">blamed the illness on “hot blood”</a>. Psychologists have since surmised that the actions were possibly down to group hysteria or a <a href="http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/258521">stress-induced psychosis</a>. Those who managed to survive the plague were thought to be so traumatised and vulnerable that this hysteria could easily have perpetuated the spread of the dancing disease, and made it as real as any infectious disease. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151380/original/image-20161222-17296-19fagn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151380/original/image-20161222-17296-19fagn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151380/original/image-20161222-17296-19fagn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151380/original/image-20161222-17296-19fagn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151380/original/image-20161222-17296-19fagn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=961&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151380/original/image-20161222-17296-19fagn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=961&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151380/original/image-20161222-17296-19fagn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=961&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Three women affected by the dancing plague of the 1500s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_Plague_of_1518#/media/File:Die_Wallfahrt_der_Fallsuechtigen_nach_Meulebeeck.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But our psychological understanding has advanced since then, so surely fears would not spread in a similar way any more?</p>
<p>In 2016, one mass phobia was linked to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-psychology-behind-why-clowns-creep-us-out-65936">the “creepy clown” epidemic</a> that swept across the US and UK. Though typically associated with children’s parties and fast food venues, psychologists have proposed that it could be clowns’ “<a href="http://www.livescience.com/56066-why-people-afraid-of-clowns.html">suspiciously otherworldly qualities</a>”, oversized extremities, and garish makeup and clothing that can be read as monstrous rather than playful and happy. In addition, many of the <a href="http://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-history-and-psychology-of-clowns-being-scary-20394516/?no-ist">“mischievous” behaviours</a> performed by clowns are seen to be antisocial rather than prosocial, creating feelings of unease in young children, adolescents and adults alike. </p>
<p>Many were heard claiming they had a “phobia” of clowns, after hearing news of how a small few were waiting on street corners seemingly ready to attack. This is an example of “contagion”, a social psychological metaphor which refers to the spread of a behaviour pattern, attitude or emotion from person to person, or group to group – like the dancing plague. It moves through suggestion, propaganda, rumour, or imitation. Indeed, informational transmission or contagion is one of several possible explanations for acquiring a sudden fear of an object or situation, when others have it too. </p>
<p>In the case of the creepy clowns, overhearing conversations, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/07/creepy-clown-sightings-craze-speads-britain">reading stories on social media</a> or indeed seeing an individual dressed up as a clown could have contributed to the development of the phobia. </p>
<p>We have great power and influence over each other: sometimes we are aware of this, other times not. Ultimately, we cannot simply say that phobias are contagious – you certainly can’t catch them like you might do a cold. But your phobia could induce another to act in a certain way, or make them believe they too have your fear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67805/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clare Glennan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Your phobias might just be influencing another’s fears.Clare Glennan, Lecturer of Psychology, Cardiff Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/694022016-11-30T01:05:33Z2016-11-30T01:05:33ZWe should all beware a resurgent financial sector<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147683/original/image-20161128-32046-1xjkvbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Markets are useful to a certain point.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around the world, the financial sector is <a href="http://ser.oxfordjournals.org/content/12/1/99.short">resurgent</a> and is concocting <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393209000592">new financial instruments and markets in which to trade them</a>. In Australia the market for some financial securities <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/nonconforming-loans-on-the-rise-in-banking/news-story/d8884f28b417612e9389871cd6f16de4">has quintupled in only a year</a>, encouraged by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA).</p>
<p>This is similar to what we saw in the years preceding the global financial crisis (GFC). In those days, the financial industry came up with exotic things to trade like <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/06/credit-default-swaps">credit default swaps</a> (CDS) – essentially gigantic insurance policies, and <a href="http://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/tlcp21&div=22&id=&page=">mortgage backed securities</a> – bundles of mortgages. </p>
<p>The wider economy <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecl/ohidic/2004-25.html">saw little benefit</a> from these fancy securities and trading. But the massive expansion of credit and speculation distorted the market, and, combined with <a href="http://www.ecipe.org/app/uploads/2014/12/Atkinson-Blundell_SubprimeCrisis032010.pdf">little regulatory oversight</a>, helped <a href="http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050409-112539">bring on the GFC</a>. </p>
<p>So as this process of <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/financialization.asp?ad=dirN&qo=investopediaSiteSearch&qsrc=0&o=40186">financialisation</a> gathers steam again, we should question the benefits for society at large. There are two broad objectives to balance. Capital markets <a href="http://download.asic.gov.au/media/3254872/speech-to-adc-forum-the-future-of-funding-economic-growth-greg-medcraft-published-1-june-2015.pdf">can support economic growth</a>, but we need a well-regulated and transparent financial sector that brings benefits to society overall. Especially if the underlying economy starts to turn.</p>
<h2>Banks are rewinding the clock</h2>
<p>Resurgent financialisation in Australia is a trend that goes back several years. In 2013, A$26 billion worth of mortgage backed securities were sold in Australia. This was <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/business-spectator/the-good-scary-return-of-mortgage-backed-securities/news-story/95ad46ce577d68dd7ef315fb0e38b0ef">the most in the entire world</a> at the time. And it <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/nonconforming-loans-on-the-rise-in-banking/news-story/d8884f28b417612e9389871cd6f16de4">hasn’t fallen away much since then</a>. As in the years before 2008, this is dangerous. It exposes the <a href="https://www.coll.mpg.de/pdf_dat/2008_43online.pdf">entire financial system</a> to household mortgages. If house prices go down the entire system could be affected.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-15/subprime-mortgage-back-its-2008-all-over-again">financial dysfunction</a> that existed pre-2008 is also reappearing in other countries. In the United States, so-called “<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-28/get-ready-for-the-return-of-risky-mortgage-bonds-credit-markets">subprime lending</a>” – making loans to people with sub-par credit, is back with a vengeance. Even the US Federal Reserve has warned of a new ticking <a href="http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/21/ny-fed-warns-government-insured-subprime-mortgages/">time bomb of subprime loans</a>.</p>
<h2>It’s all just paper</h2>
<p>As banks are creating these instruments, profits are <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/25/us-banks-just-recorded-their-most-profitable-quarter-ever.html">at record highs</a>. But as with the period preceding the GFC, most of the benefit is confined to the financial sector. Firms are creating <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=868520">ever more complex financial instruments</a> which are not being realised in the real economy as increased loans or funding for businesses. </p>
<p>Much of the wealth created by financialisation before 2008 existed <a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/S0733-558X%282010%29000030A006">nowhere except in documents held by the financial intermediaries themselves</a>. This mutually reinforcing illusion of wealth collapsed everywhere simultaneously because there was scant underlying justification for their inflated values. The GFC wiped out <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/31/AR2008123101083.html">nearly US$7 trillion</a> of this paper wealth. </p>
<p>But the damage to the real economy was greater – lost industrial output, job losses, stalled economic activity and so forth. According to the US Government Accountability Office, <a href="http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-13-180">total losses exceeded US$10 trillion</a>. And this is why we need to keep an eye on it all.</p>
<h2>The fundamentals are starting to look bad</h2>
<p>Just as before the GFC, some of what underpins this financialisation is starting to become undone. Australians are <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-australians-are-behind-on-their-housing-loans-how-worried-should-we-be-69202">falling behind</a> on their mortgage payments. This is in part because <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-australians-are-behind-on-their-housing-loans-how-worried-should-we-be-69202">wage increases have not kept up</a> with house price increases. </p>
<p>Cases of <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/mortgage-distress-cases-rise-sharply/news-story/33054217ba37c95cf982cb389f2fa416">mortgage distress</a> are rising sharply in the country, while there is a rise in <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/nonconforming-loans-on-the-rise-in-banking/news-story/d8884f28b417612e9389871cd6f16de4">non-conforming loans</a> – loans that don’t abide by conventional lending criteria. Further, even Australia is seeing a rise in the rate of <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/subprime-lending-returns-to-fill-funding-gap/news-story/c1f12d6a95e461acb19ed4a7546e865d">subprime lending</a>.</p>
<p>Clearly, these factors in conjunction do not bode well for a financial system with a large mortgage-backed securities market. And that’s before we even factor in real estate prices <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/foreigners-pile-back-into-australian-property-reigniting-bubble-fears-20161124-gsx97i.html">at bubble-level</a> valuations.</p>
<h2>We need functioning markets</h2>
<p>The larger purpose of resurgent financialisation in the world, and not least in Australia, should be to cultivate deep financial markets that allocate capital to causes that are both profitable and socially acceptable - all while being subject to appropriate oversight.</p>
<p>The public should insist on robust accountability, tempered expansion of the market, and an emphasis on distributing the gains of financial securitisation to the broader society.</p>
<p>Greater accountability of big finance will require a multifaceted approach. First, financial regulators will need to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=961755">exercise independence</a> and be forthright in <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/soL3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=880886">their admonition</a> of risky financial practices. </p>
<p>Second, oversight institutions will also need to be <a href="https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/report102109.pdf">much better staffed</a> and resourced to conduct their work effectively. These bodies will also <a href="http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/is-the-sec-covering-up-wall-street-crimes-20110817">need to be less corrupt</a> themselves. </p>
<p>Third, a closer inspection of <a href="http://www.pogo.org/blog/2014/04/20140410-retiring-sec-lawyer-says-revolving-door-causes-weak-enforcement.html">the revolving door</a> that exists between big finance and <a href="http://www.aaajournals.org/doi/abs/10.2308/acch.2002.16.1.43">politics</a> will be necessary. </p>
<p>Fourth, we need to ensure that no financial institution becomes “<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6687247-too-big-to-fail">too big to fail</a>”. It may be time to question whether such <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7944522-the-monster">behemoths</a> are necessary and whether their <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6691186-how-markets-fail">enormous power</a> provides any significant benefit to society at large.</p>
<p>Without such insistence for accountability, we may repeat the financial follies of the very recent past. The global financial crisis <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w13761">was not as unique</a> as we might think. To have the same crisis repeat ten years apart, driven by the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08913810902934117">same trends in financialisation and securitisation</a> without adequate accountability or oversight, would be a truly crippling verdict on modern capitalism.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69402/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Usman W. Chohan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The finance sector is coming back strong after the GFC. This time, we need to make sure it is a force for good.Usman W. Chohan, Doctoral Candidate, Policy Reform and Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/328722014-11-11T23:55:40Z2014-11-11T23:55:40ZThe economics of Ebola<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/64211/original/9pp3sdkr-1415682283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The economic cost of Ebola is estimated at around 3% of GDP for Liberia, and this does not take into account human costs.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ahmed Jallanzo/ AAP </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Economists are being called upon to estimate the costs of the Ebola epidemic to West Africa and elsewhere. However, economists should also play a part in estimating the likelihood of the disease spreading. Economics is the study of incentives, and many biological models of the spread of the disease may be underestimating the impact of individual incentives.</p>
<p>Assessments of the cost of Ebola in West Africa are grim. The <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/20396/912190WP0see0a00070385314B00PUBLIC0.pdf?sequence=1">World Bank estimates</a> the impact of Ebola on Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone this year is around 3% of GDP. It estimates these governments have incurred financial losses of a similar magnitude. The impact on West Africa as a whole is tipped to be between US$2 billion and US$7 billion. </p>
<p>Important agricultural regions are under quarantine, interrupting production and sales. This will to lead to food shortages. Retailers are also reporting a 50% to 75% drop in turnover as people avoid human contact. According to <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2014/09/costs-pandemic">The Economist</a>, the response is that “investors evacuate foreign workers, borders close and international flights are suspended”. </p>
<p>The risk of further embargoes also mean that exporters are suspending production and investment in the region. Already Sime Darby, the world’s largest listed producer of oil palm, is slowing production and Sifca Group, an Ivory Coast-based agribusiness, has stopped exporting rubber.</p>
<p>If Ebola spreads throughout West Africa, the cost could rise to US$32.6 billion by the end of 2015. There are larger and more populous countries nearby and Nigeria has already contained one outbreak. Many of these countries are more integrated with the world economy – Lagos in Nigeria is a major travel hub. The trade and travel embargoes would be extremely costly and the costs in terms of lost output would also be hefty.</p>
<p>These costs do not even take into account the damage to the health system from the loss of many health-care workers, nor the damage to the economy from lost workers and schooling. They also fail to take into account the enormous personal toll of those who lose family and friends to the disease.</p>
<p>These estimates give some indication of the costs faced if Ebola were to penetrate other parts of the world. These costs would be significantly higher because developed economies rely much more on trade and travel. </p>
<h2>Are Western countries likely to be safe from contagion?</h2>
<p>The response of Western governments has been vastly insufficient to contain the outbreak, according to the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/08/ebola-crisis-world-bank-president-jim-kim-failure">World Bank</a> and Medecins Sans Frontieres. Governments have provided too few military and health professionals, and little funding. </p>
<p>In response to pressure, Australia has recently provided <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/ebola-crisis/tony-abbott-ramps-up-ebola-response-with-medics-and-money/story-fnpqlos3-1227113608584">A$20 million for a 100-bed hospital in Sierra Leone</a>, but no medical personnel. This suggests the Australian government believes Ebola will be largely restricted to West Africa. Applying economic theory can assess whether this is correct.</p>
<p>This belief seems to rest on two pillars: first, that the risk of contagion is low for informed individuals because transmission is through bodily fluids; and second, that some combination of reduced travel to West Africa and the quarantine of at-risk returnees will be effective.</p>
<p>The first belief seems reasonable if there are a small number of cases. By taking extreme precautions about touching others, the spread of the disease may be halted. However, as the number of unidentified cases in the population expands, public places become a potential risk.</p>
<p>It is daunting to consider that at the critical stage of the illness, patients lose five to ten litres of contagious fluids per day. Beyond a small number of cases, hospitals’ capacity to safely dispose of these fluids could easily be overwhelmed. The <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/specialist-hospitals-face-challenges-in-handling-ebola-outbreak-1413230001">Emory</a> university hospital treating three Ebola patients had to use an autoclave to sterilise 1360 kilograms of medical waste.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jvchamary/2014/10/13/ebola-travel/">Biologists</a> say mass contagion is unlikely in the West. However, they have serious concerns about India and China with their dense populations and poor public health systems. </p>
<p>US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director <a href="http://article.wn.com/view/2014/10/24/First_Confirmed_Ebola_Case_in_New_York/">Thomas Frieden</a> says: “We have got infection control in hospitals and public health that tracks and isolates people if they get symptoms.” However, this view may be overlooking the incentives driving at-risk individuals. </p>
<h2>Individual self-interest in conflict with society’s interests</h2>
<p>While it is in society’s interest for individuals to declare any contact with Ebola, it is not in the individual’s interest. Thomas Duncan, who died in Texas from Ebola, did not disclose his contact with a sick patient to Liberian authorities. An individual’s freedom of travel may be severely curtailed. </p>
<p>Australia and the United States have already implemented home quarantine orders for at-risk individuals. However, at least one person has <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/30/us-health-ebola-usa-idUSKBN0II1SP20141030">refused to comply</a>. If the individual is identified while in a country with low-budget quarantine procedures, they may be around other at-risk individuals, which is certainly not in their interest.</p>
<p>Individuals are also unlikely to respect any travel ban. <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jvchamary/2014/10/13/ebola-travel/">Modelling by Northeastern University</a> suggests that a 90% reduction in flights to West Africa would delay the spread by only a few months. Individuals will enter through other countries, meaning they will be harder to track and isolate.</p>
<p>Based on cost-benefit analysis, the potential costs of Ebola spreading are extremely high and the risks may be much higher than they are currently portrayed. Voters and donors should support greater efforts to end Ebola in West Africa. As International Monetary Fund director Christine Lagarde says, “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-03/imf-warn-ebola-outbreak-is-a-severe-risk-for-econonmy/5788034">real action</a>” is needed to counter the outbreak. Without such action Ebola places the global economy at risk.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine de Fontenay has donated to Medecins Sans Frontieres in their efforts to contain the ebola crisis.</span></em></p>Economists are being called upon to estimate the costs of the Ebola epidemic to West Africa and elsewhere. However, economists should also play a part in estimating the likelihood of the disease spreading…Catherine de Fontenay, Associate Professor, Melbourne Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/48072011-12-21T19:44:01Z2011-12-21T19:44:01Z2011: Year of the bat-borne virus<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/6586/original/6ydsbbdj-1324341884.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bats appear have a much better symbiotic relationship with viruses than other mammal species.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the Chinese zodiac, 2011 is the year of the rabbit but for those of us working on viruses from wildlife animals, it was much more like the year of the bat.</p>
<p>In February, the <a href="http://www.asiaone.com/Health/News/Story/A1Story20110205-262058.html">deadly Nipah virus re-emerged in Bangladesh</a> killing at least 15 people. Nipah virus was first discovered in Malaysia during a large disease outbreak from 1998 to 1999. That outbreak resulted in around 100 human fatalities and more than one million pigs were culled in order to control the spread of the virus. </p>
<p>It’s well known that Nipah is a bat-borne virus, transmitted from bats to pigs, and then from pigs to people. Viruses that have this ability to pass from animals to people are commonly known as zoonotic viruses. </p>
<p>From June to October, Australia experienced its own zoonotic disease threat with 18 properties across <a href="http://www.dpi.qld.gov.au/4790_2900.htm">Queensland</a> and <a href="http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/livestock/horses/health/general/hendra-virus">New South Wales</a> confirming cases of Hendra virus infections. This resulted in the death of 23 horses and, for the first time outside a laboratory setting, Hendra virus antibodies were identified in a dog. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/6588/original/8w2by2ps-1324342127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/6588/original/8w2by2ps-1324342127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6588/original/8w2by2ps-1324342127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6588/original/8w2by2ps-1324342127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6588/original/8w2by2ps-1324342127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6588/original/8w2by2ps-1324342127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6588/original/8w2by2ps-1324342127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bat-borne viruses spread from bats to pigs and from pigs to humans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vicky Sawyer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During this worrying time, Queensland Health monitored 68 people for signs of infection due to potential exposure to the virus. Thankfully none of them showed any evidence of this.</p>
<p>In October, a <a href="http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.ppat.1002304">paper published</a> in the journal <a href="http://www.plospathogens.org/home.action;jsessionid=4CF0EBE242740B4D610BDFB4DC248093">PLoS Pathogens</a> reported the discovery of a new Ebolavirus-like filovirus in Spanish bats, marking the first detection of this class of killer virus in Europe.</p>
<p>To add a dramatic finishing touch to these real-life events, the release of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/steven-soderberghs-contagion-sounding-alarm-for-the-next-pandemic-3907">Hollywood blockbuster Contagion</a> further drew the world’s attention to the potential damage a novel bat-borne virus could wreak. Although the movie is fictional, it’s a frighteningly realistic depiction of just how fast an infectious disease can take root and spread.</p>
<h2>Why bats?</h2>
<p>For the last two decades, we’ve witnessed several major disease outbreaks caused by deadly viruses, including Hendra, Nipah, Ebola, Marburg and SARS. <em>All</em> of these viruses originated from bats, yet none seem to cause any clinical disease in the bats, which are known as “reservoir hosts” as carriers of the virus. It appears that bats have a much better symbiotic relationship with viruses than other mammal species.</p>
<p><a href="http://cmr.asm.org/content/19/3/531.full">Recent research findings</a> from different international groups indicate there are numerous viruses circulating among the bat populations around the world. Work on coronavirus – the virus family to which SARS belongs – and paramyxovirus – the family to which human measles and Hendra viruses belong – suggests that all “modern” versions of human and livestock viruses may have a close relative in bats. This has led to the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1879625711001325">hypothesis</a> that bats could potentially be the “birth place” of most known viruses affecting humans. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4644/original/COND-08358c2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4644/original/COND-08358c2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4644/original/COND-08358c2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4644/original/COND-08358c2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4644/original/COND-08358c2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4644/original/COND-08358c2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4644/original/COND-08358c2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Steven Soderbergh’s film Contagion drew attention to the havoc a bat-borne virus could wreak.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Claudette Barius</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bats are very ancient mammals and have been around for at least 50 or 60 million years. They make a significant contribution to environmental health through their role as essential pollinators and seed dispersers for native forests and they’re the only mammal with true flying ability. </p>
<p>The unique virus-bat relationship is possibly the result of a long history of co-evolution. It may also be the case that the presence of low levels of different viruses in bats may actually have been, and continue to be, advantageous for the bat population.</p>
<p>Research conducted in Australia has demonstrated that although most bat populations show evidence of Hendra virus infection, the level of actively circulating virus is uniformly low. This explains why we’ve generally only experienced one or two events of host switching – from bats to horses – almost every year for the last decade. </p>
<p>But, there were at least 18 incidents of species-jumping for Hendra virus in 2011. This led to the thesis that an increase of Hendra virus in bats or a Hendra virus “spike” are the vital triggers for an outbreak. Research data obtained this year seems to support this hypothesis.</p>
<h2>Continuing research </h2>
<p>So the $12-million question is what happened in 2011 that’s different from previous years? After the dramatic increase of Hendra cases this year, the Commonwealth and state governments formed the <a href="http://www.dpi.qld.gov.au/4790_20725.htm">Intergovernmental Hendra Virus Taskforce</a> and provided A$12 million of funding for research into reducing or preventing future outbreaks by answering questions such as this. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/6589/original/9qhqx9jq-1324342435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/6589/original/9qhqx9jq-1324342435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6589/original/9qhqx9jq-1324342435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6589/original/9qhqx9jq-1324342435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6589/original/9qhqx9jq-1324342435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6589/original/9qhqx9jq-1324342435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6589/original/9qhqx9jq-1324342435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Hendra virus outbreak in Queensland and New South Wales affected 18 porperties.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As 2011 draws to an end, the story of bat-borne viruses continues. The world continues to change and it’s certain that more and more unknown bat viruses will emerge. The challenge for us is to get ahead of the viruses before they are given the opportunity to jump from one host to another. </p>
<p>The good news is that scientists around the world have already started to work towards developing a system for predicting virus outbreaks, similar to weather and earthquake forecasts, through the <a href="http://www.gvfi.org/">Global Virus Forecasting Initiative (GVFi)</a>, which is led by Stanford University’s Professor Nathan Wolf. </p>
<p>CSIRO’s “bat pack”, a team of researchers at the <a href="http://www.csiro.au/aahl">Australian Animal Health Laboratory (AAHL)</a> in Geelong, Victoria, is a partner of the GVFi. As the name suggests, the team’s research aims to better understand bat immunology and how bats co-exist with the viruses they carry. Our goal is to identify strategies to control viruses, such as Hendra, from spreading to other animals and people.</p>
<p>Last month, Australia extended its ability to respond to a wide range of continually emerging diseases – that have the potential to harm people, animals and our environment – further with the opening of <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/Portals/Multimedia/CSIROvod/AAHL-Tour.aspx">the world’s most biosecure laboratory</a>. </p>
<p>The new state-of the-art laboratory is located within the high containment facility of AAHL and will provide researchers, such as members of the “bat pack”, with the biosecure and safe infrastructure required to undertake vital research to effectively tackle increasing biosecurity threats, both here and around the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/4807/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Linfa Wang receives funding from ARC, NHMRC, NIH and AB-CRC</span></em></p>In the Chinese zodiac, 2011 is the year of the rabbit but for those of us working on viruses from wildlife animals, it was much more like the year of the bat. In February, the deadly Nipah virus re-emerged…Linfa Wang, Office of the Chief Executive Science Leader in Virology, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/39072011-10-20T02:14:57Z2011-10-20T02:14:57ZSteven Soderbergh’s Contagion: sounding alarm for the next pandemic?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4644/original/COND-08358c2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jude Law as Alan Krumwiede in the thriller "Contagion".</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Claudette Barius </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One touch and you’re infected. By the next day your muscles ache, you have a fever and the beginnings of a headache. </p>
<p>You don’t know it yet, but you only have a one in three chance of survival and you’ve already infected three other people. Two weeks later, 8 million people have been infected. </p>
<p>This is the scenario presented by Steven Soderbergh’s latest film Contagion, but is it pure fantasy or an alarm bell, a warning of a devastating future?</p>
<h2>Making it real</h2>
<p>The creators of Contagion, writer Scott Z Burns (screenplay writer for The Informant and Bourne Ultimatum) and director Steven Soderbergh (director of Traffic and the Ocean’s trilogy), were determined to illuminate the potential catastrophe of a worldwide pandemic as realistically as possible.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4642/original/COND-02469.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4642/original/COND-02469.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4642/original/COND-02469.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4642/original/COND-02469.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4642/original/COND-02469.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4642/original/COND-02469.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4642/original/COND-02469.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Elliott Gould as Dr Ian Sussman in Contagion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Claudette Barius </span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To do this, they employed a number of technical consultants from the field of medical research, including Walter Ian Lipkin, a professor of epidemiology, neurology and pathology at Columbia University, whom they asked to design the virus that would cause the pandemic. </p>
<p>An expert in his field, Professor Lipkin was recruited by Chinese officials to help curb the spread of SARS during the 2003 outbreak in China in which 8000 people were infected and 750 people died.</p>
<p>Professor <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/opinion/the-real-threat-of-contagion.html">Lipkin recently wrote</a> about how he had been approached by several movie-makers over time, but before the Contagion team, none had convinced him that they genuinely wanted to make a movie that “… didn’t distort reality but did convey the risks that we all face from emerging infectious diseases.” </p>
<h2>The virus</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4649/original/Nipah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4649/original/Nipah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4649/original/Nipah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4649/original/Nipah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4649/original/Nipah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4649/original/Nipah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4649/original/Nipah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The virus in Contagion is based on the Nipah virus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CDC/CS Goldsmith, PE Rollin</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lipkin and his research team decided to base their fictional virus, MEV-1, on the very real and deadly Nipah virus. </p>
<p>The Nipah virus infected 265 people in Malaysia between late 1998 to mid-1999, with a 40% fatality rate. Since then, it has caused 12 separate outbreaks, mainly in Bangladesh but also within Singapore and India. </p>
<p>In some of these outbreaks, every infected person died. </p>
<p>Initially transmitted from infected pigs to humans through direct contact, strains of the virus have since mutated, enabling much more dangerous human-to-human transmission. </p>
<h2>Emergence of disease</h2>
<p>Within infected humans, Nipah virus causes respiratory difficulties but can also induce an often-fatal inflammation of the brain, known as encephalitis. </p>
<p>Signs of illness begin with influenza-like symptoms of fever, sore throat, headaches and muscle pain, progressing to dizziness, altered consciousness and neurological signs that can include fits – such as those prominently depicted in the trailer.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4646/original/COND-00398.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4646/original/COND-00398.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4646/original/COND-00398.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4646/original/COND-00398.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4646/original/COND-00398.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4646/original/COND-00398.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4646/original/COND-00398.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marion Cotillard (left) as Dr Leonora Orantes and Chin Han (right) as Sun Feng.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Claudette Barius</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Contagion, the virus originates from Hong Kong, a not unlikely scenario given the first SARS outbreak centred there.</p>
<p>Many different diseases (known as zoonotic diseases) that have similar modes of transmission – from animals to humans – have come from neighbouring South-East Asian countries. </p>
<p>Among others, they include Nipah virus and swine flu.</p>
<p>A high mortality rate is very real for these viruses, but could millions of people really become infected? And could it spread beyond Asia to wreak equivalent havoc in Western countries, such as America, where most of the film is based?</p>
<h2>Global reach</h2>
<p>Viruses spend their life replicating. Some, such as cytomegalovirus, can shed more than a million viral particles within a drop of saliva. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4648/original/COND-04256.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4648/original/COND-04256.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4648/original/COND-04256.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4648/original/COND-04256.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4648/original/COND-04256.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4648/original/COND-04256.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4648/original/COND-04256.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Laurence Fishburne as Dr Ellis Cheever and Bryan Cranston as RADM Lyle Haggerty.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Claudette Barius</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Viruses such as rotavirus need as little as twenty viral particles to effectively infect a person and make them very ill. </p>
<p>According to the International Air Transport Association, there were 750 million scheduled international flights taken worldwide in 2010. </p>
<p>So it’s not beyond the realms of possibility for such a virus to spread to disparate regions of the world within weeks.</p>
<p>The 1918 Spanish influenza outbreak (mentioned in the film) is thought to have infected 30% to 40% of the world’s population at that time. </p>
<p>Conservative estimates put the death toll attributed to this strain of influenza at 50 million people. At the time of that pandemic, the aviation industry was only just beginning. </p>
<p>So a virus infecting and killing millions of people worldwide is not only feasible, it’s happened before.</p>
<h2>Elusiveness of cure</h2>
<p>But don’t the current worldwide surveillance of outbreaks, more advanced medical research capabilities and modern healthcare infrastructure, make a repeat of a pandemic like the Spanish flu, or the fictional MEV-1 of Contagion beyond the realms of possibility?</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4651/original/Spanish_flu_hospital.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4651/original/Spanish_flu_hospital.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4651/original/Spanish_flu_hospital.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4651/original/Spanish_flu_hospital.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4651/original/Spanish_flu_hospital.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4651/original/Spanish_flu_hospital.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4651/original/Spanish_flu_hospital.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Spanish flu outbreak killed millions of people worldwide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Museum of Health and Medicine, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Washington, D.C.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unfortunately, no. The increasing encroachment of people into previously uninhabited areas, in addition to unhygienic animal husbandry practices in many South East Asian countries, means new viruses are now being introduced into the human population. </p>
<p>Early mutation of such viruses could give rise to human-to-human transmission, and it could easily spread before any surveillance organization has a chance to notice an emerging pocket of disease.</p>
<p>In fact, the detection of the MEV-1 virus in Contagion, its identification and the resulting global co-operation to curb its spread is in many respects the best-case scenario. </p>
<p>Even though the real Nipah virus had its first outbreak in 1998, a vaccine for it has not yet been developed. Nor are there any effective anti-viral drugs for treatment of symptoms in the current treatment protocol.</p>
<p>Have Steven Soderbergh and Scott Z Burns created a realistic pandemic movie? It’s the most realistic I’ve seen, and certainly not beyond the realms of possibility.</p>
<p>Can reality be scarier than fiction? Absolutely.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jesse Toe receives funding from The National Heath and Medical Research Council. He is affiliated with The Walter and Eliza Hall Institute.</span></em></p>One touch and you’re infected. By the next day your muscles ache, you have a fever and the beginnings of a headache. You don’t know it yet, but you only have a one in three chance of survival and you’ve…Jesse Toe, Doctoral Student, Walter and Eliza Hall InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.