tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/cuban-americans-28125/articlesCuban Americans – The Conversation2020-12-23T20:15:01Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1524782020-12-23T20:15:01Z2020-12-23T20:15:01ZFact check US: Has Donald Trump really made a breakthrough in the Latino electorate?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376462/original/file-20201222-17-s66inm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">file umefa</span> </figcaption></figure><p>The US elections delivered plenty of surprises on 3 November. While the results eventually showed that Trump had well and truly lost, we also saw him make inroads on several fronts. More than <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president">74 million people</a> cast their ballot for him, compared to 63 million in 2016. That margin of progress came from multiple categories of voters, including rural, lower-middle-class and Latino voters. That last group, in particular, has shocked many observers, especially given the president’s attacks against Latino immigrants. A month and a half later, it’s time to take a closer look at the data and try to analyze the voting behavior of that population.</p>
<p>First of all, let’s look at the numbers. To date, all we have access to are the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html">exit polls</a> conducted for American media outlets, which are interesting tools at the local and national level. They indicate that Trump made no real inroads with Latino voters since 2016. In both 2016 and 2020, two thirds of this group voted Democrat – 63% for Hilary Clinton, then 65% for Joe Biden. Furthermore, according to the <a href="https://electionstudies.org/">American National Election Studies (ANES)</a>, this has been a trend since the late 1980s, with 76% going for Al Gore in 2000, 76% for Barack Obama in 2008 and 73% for Obama (again) in 2012. The Republican candidate who received the most votes was George W. Bush (around 40%), probably because he had a strong base of support in Texas, where 23% of the population is Latino American.</p>
<p><strong>Share of the vote for the Democratic Party by ethnicity</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Democratic share of the vote." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376459/original/file-20201222-50514-jeszm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376459/original/file-20201222-50514-jeszm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376459/original/file-20201222-50514-jeszm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376459/original/file-20201222-50514-jeszm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376459/original/file-20201222-50514-jeszm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376459/original/file-20201222-50514-jeszm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376459/original/file-20201222-50514-jeszm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Democratic share of the vote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">American National Election Studies</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why Latino and Black minority votes differ (to a certain extent)?</h2>
<p>The fact that Trump received 32% of the Latino vote was surprising, partly because he has <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2017/02/07/donald-trump-reveille-le-nationalisme-des-mexicains_5075644_3222.html">railed against Latinos on numerous occasions</a>, calling Mexicans “rapists” and “criminals” back in 2015. But the other reason this result was so shocking is that people tend to assume that the Latino voting bloc will vote in the same way as the other big minority in the US, that is, African-Americans. However, the two groups have different reasons for their voting behaviors.</p>
<p>The Latino population is far more diverse than the Black population. It includes both recently-arrived and second-generation immigrants, economic migrants and refugees, those that are “visible” and those that are not. Taking a moment to study the Black vote is therefore useful for understanding the Latino vote.</p>
<p>Ever since the 1960s, more than 90% of Black Americans have been voting Democrat. Such stability is striking considering that this group has been socially divergent since the 1980s, as established by the work of political scientist <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691025438/behind-the-mule">Michael Dawson</a>, who explains this behavior through the prism of “linked fate” that unite Black Americans despite socioeconomic diversity.</p>
<p>Other immigrant groups are not connected by that notion of linked fates. Their shared socio-political characteristics generally fade over time, as members of the population are integrated into American society. This is mainly due to the fact that new arrivals only experience temporary discrimination <em>(see the work of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Who-Governs-Democracy-and-Power-in-an-American-City">Robert Dahl</a> for more on this topic)</em>. In the case of African-Americans, however, this feeling of connection still exists because American society continues to discriminate against them. And prejudices remain, particularly because “visibilization” due to skin color plays a major role. <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/afrocaribbean-immigrants-and-the-politics-of-incorporation/81C4C0E89F50DE6C03D0A28D72BC5F32">Reuel Rogers</a> showed that recently-arrived Afro-Caribbeans also experience discrimination in the US, even though they do not have the same history as Black Americans.</p>
<p>Latino voting behavior can be explained through the “two-tiered pluralism” theory developed by political scientist <a href="http://tupress.temple.edu/book/3295">Rodney Hero</a>, which shows how part of the Latino population feels connected to their Latino identity, experiences race-based discrimination and will therefore have similar voting behavior to African-American voters. This is the case in New York or California, for example, two states that are strongly structured by the fight against racism. According to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/30044225.pdf">David L. Lean, Matt A. Barreto et al</a>, this helps to explain why a Latino identity is stronger factor than other social voting factors, such as income, age, education or religion.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375418/original/file-20201216-17-1u84zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375418/original/file-20201216-17-1u84zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375418/original/file-20201216-17-1u84zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375418/original/file-20201216-17-1u84zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375418/original/file-20201216-17-1u84zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375418/original/file-20201216-17-1u84zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375418/original/file-20201216-17-1u84zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375418/original/file-20201216-17-1u84zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Source: The Latino vote in the 2004 election, David Leal, Matt Barreto et al.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The case of Cuban Americans</h2>
<p>However, some Latinos easily integrate into American society. This is because they do not stand out because of their skin color, meaning that they are not reduced to their race in daily interactions. Bit by bit, their solidarity with other Latinos decreases, and their sense of linked fates disappears. Other voting factors take precedence: depending on their personal situation, voters begin to consider various things – their position toward the welfare state (which they may not necessarily support) or religious beliefs, for instance. Another factor is Cuban-American exceptionalism, which researchers identified in the 1990s. This group votes overwhelmingly Republican (80% in 2004), whereas Mexican Americans, for example, mostly vote Democrat (66% in 2004).</p>
<p>The influence of Cuban voters has become particularly important in US presidential elections because of Florida, which has been a swing state for more than twenty years. In 2020, 56% of Cubans voted for Trump, versus 31% of Puerto Rican voters, continuing the well-known trend. Several studies dating back to 2004 have explored this phenomenon, and explain it through the difficult relationship that Cubans have with the Castro regime (and related beliefs in terms of socialism, private property, oppression, etc.). </p>
<p>It should also be noted that this kind of voting behavior has also been observed in Vietnamese “boat people,” who came to the US and France after the Vietnam War. In France, the <a href="https://www.ined.fr/fr/publications/editions/grandes-enquetes/trajectoires-et-origines/">“Trajectories and Origins”</a> survey by INED and INSEE provides insight into the right-wing positioning of immigrants from Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia (a position that their children and grandchildren do not hold). The common denominator being that these immigrants fled a Communist regime.</p>
<p>In conclusion, these dynamics do not support the Republican party. Trump may have succeeded in mobilizing some Latino Americans who feel “less Latino” and less discriminated, by using highly divisive, anti-immigrant rhetoric. But the Latino population’s increasing strength nationwide is shifting Republican states to the Democrat camp. Such was the case of New Mexico under Obama. This year, Arizona flipped, whose population is 19% Latino. Texas, at 23%, looks to be next.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Translated from the French by Rosie Marsland for <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr/en">Fast ForWord</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vincent Tiberj has received funding from INJEP, ANR, and the Nouvelle-Aquiatine Region.</span></em></p>More than 30% of Latinos voted for Trump in the recent elections – a significant result, but not a breakthrough by any stretch, and it can be explained by several factors.Vincent Tiberj, Professeur des universités, délégué recherche de Sciences Po Bordeaux, Sciences Po BordeauxLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1495152020-11-09T13:12:12Z2020-11-09T13:12:12ZSo-called ‘Latino vote’ is 32 million Americans with diverse political opinions and national origins<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367982/original/file-20201106-21-11b8kun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C6%2C4479%2C2984&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Biden, here at an Oct. 9 event in Nevada, won Latinos – but not necessarily because his campaign did a great job reaching out to them.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-vice-president-and-presidential-nominee-joe-biden-news-photo/1229097415?adppopup=true">Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pundits are expressing surprise that <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/biden-narrow-lead-florida-hispanics-433570">so many Latinos voted for Donald Trump</a>. </p>
<p>But pollsters who specialize in the Latino vote knew for months before the election that <a href="https://www.equisresearch.us/">Latino support for Biden was soft</a>, with many Latinos – especially in Florida – undecided. In Florida <a href="https://latinodecisions.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Latino-Florida-Crosstab.pdf">57% of Latinos ultimately supported Biden</a>, compared to roughly <a href="https://latinodecisions.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/AEEP-2020-Latino-National-Crosstabs.pdf">70% nationwide</a>.</p>
<p>These numbers are reliable because they come from exit polls designed to capture Latino political preferences. National exit polls <a href="https://digitalcommons.lmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1011&context=poli_fac">have been mostly wrong</a> about Latino voting patterns since they first began including Latinos in the 1980s.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/10/key-facts-about-u-s-latinos-for-national-hispanic-heritage-month/">60.6 million Americans lumped together under the umbrella term “Latino”</a> are a racially, ethnically and geographically diverse group, as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PB2oOhMAAAAJ&hl=en">my research on Latino identity shows</a>. And they have equally diverse political opinions.</p>
<h2>Florida: Not just Cubans</h2>
<p>Latino-focused tracking polls from <a href="https://www.equisresearch.us/">Equis Research</a> conducted in May showed that <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d30982b599bde00016db472/t/5ec685b6162eeb5642192ee2/1590068692311/EquisResearch_11State_Analysis_Deck_General2020.05.20.pdf">Latino support for Trump</a> ranged widely, from <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d30982b599bde00016db472/t/5ec685b6162eeb5642192ee2/1590068692311/EquisResearch_11State_Analysis_Deck_General2020.05.20.pdf">15% in Wisconsin to 31% in Florida</a>.</p>
<p>Latino voting patterns in Florida are heavily influenced by Cuban Americans. About <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/02/most-cuban-american-voters-identify-as-republican-in-2020/">three-fifths of Florida’s 1.4 million eligible Cuban Americans voters</a> identify as Republican. </p>
<p>Cubans arrived in the U.S. fleeing Fidel Castro’s communist regime, giving them a strong antipathy toward anything labeled socialism. Ronald Reagan was the first presidential candidate to travel to Florida and appeal directly to this community, in 1980, <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Latino+Politics%2C+2nd+Edition-p-9780745686424">winning them over</a> with a strong anti-communist message.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367980/original/file-20201106-15-xhx1im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People in face masks hold Cuban flags, pro-Trump signs and 'free Cuba' signs outside a subway station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367980/original/file-20201106-15-xhx1im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367980/original/file-20201106-15-xhx1im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367980/original/file-20201106-15-xhx1im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367980/original/file-20201106-15-xhx1im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367980/original/file-20201106-15-xhx1im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367980/original/file-20201106-15-xhx1im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367980/original/file-20201106-15-xhx1im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pro-Trump Cuban Americans in the Democratic stronghold of New York City, July 26, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/demonstrators-rally-in-union-square-against-us-economic-and-news-photo/1227796643?adppopup=true">John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This year, Trump capitalized on Cuban Americans’ gut-level fear of communism <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-cultivated-the-latino-vote-in-florida-and-it-paid-off/ar-BB1aFHOD?fbclid=IwAR0xrPIgbepL2Aj0gGFi6AD-yytxiC9oxBeCLT6iwxL08WI5hT_hhGD-H_w">in his Latino advertising</a> in Florida, claiming Joe Biden would bring <a href="https://www.salon.com/2020/11/01/could-trumps-success-with-cuban-american-voters-help-tip-florida-his-way_partner/">socialism</a> to the U.S.</p>
<p>“This idea that every Democrat is now socialist…we know it to be false,” Randy Pestana, a researcher at Florida International University, <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/researchers-find-whatsapp-disinformation-campaigns-targeting-hispanic-voters-in-south-florida/ar-BB1aB0i0">told CBS Miami</a>. “But in these communities that’s actually lived through socialism, like in Cuba and Venezuela and Nicaragua, it has a personal effect on how you and your family will vote.”</p>
<p>Cubans <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/19/latinos-make-up-record-17-of-florida-registered-voters-in-2020/">make up</a> only about 29% of Florida’s eligible Latino voters. Florida has <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2020-09-15/how-puerto-ricans-central-florida-may-decide-us-election">long been home to a large Puerto Rican population</a>, whose numbers only grew after <a href="https://theconversation.com/puerto-rico-has-not-recovered-from-hurricane-maria-103288">Hurricane Maria in 2017</a>; Puerto Ricans now comprise 27% of Florida’s Latino vote. Mexicans are 10%. Venezuelans, too, have <a href="https://theconversation.com/thousands-flee-violence-and-hunger-in-venezuela-seeking-asylum-in-the-united-states-74495">flocked to Florida in recent years</a>. </p>
<p>Today Florida Latinos are <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/10/12/hispanic-voter-registration-rises-in-florida-but-role-of-puerto-ricans-remains-unclear/">split in terms of partisanship</a>. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/19/latinos-make-up-record-17-of-florida-registered-voters-in-2020/">About 26%</a> are registered Republicans and 38% are Democrats. Another 36% have no party preference. </p>
<p>In other words, “the Latino vote” in Florida has complex and shifting party attachments. That said, the Miami-area Latino political culture is still strongly influenced by the media environment that Cubans built there over the past six decades.</p>
<p>This year a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/14/florida-latinos-disinformation-413923">large-scale disinformation campaign</a> targeted Florida’s Latino voters. On the radio, WhatsApp and Facebook, baseless conspiracy theories about the “deep state” and Biden’s supposed plan to put America under the control of “Jews and Blacks” were <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/14/florida-latinos-disinformation-413923">shared widely – and seemed to have some effect on voters</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367978/original/file-20201106-13-1nvr5mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Woman in a 'Cubans for Biden' shirt holds a sign reading '100% anti-communism, 100% pro-Biden'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367978/original/file-20201106-13-1nvr5mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367978/original/file-20201106-13-1nvr5mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367978/original/file-20201106-13-1nvr5mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367978/original/file-20201106-13-1nvr5mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367978/original/file-20201106-13-1nvr5mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367978/original/file-20201106-13-1nvr5mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367978/original/file-20201106-13-1nvr5mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An anti-communism, pro-Biden voter in Miramar, Fla., Oct. 13, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/wearing-a-face-masks-to-reduce-the-risk-posed-by-the-news-photo/1280063755?adppopup=true">Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Arizona’s grassroots Dems</h2>
<p>In contrast, Joe Biden’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-arizona-joe-biden-bb16f91b04456b2513f40436248eb62d">narrow win in Arizona</a> is thanks in large part to Latinos. About <a href="https://latinodecisions.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Latino-Arizona-Crosstab.pdf">70% of them</a> voted Democratic, pushing Biden over Trump by just a few thousand votes and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/politics/arizona-mark-kelly.html">gaining the Democrats a Senate seat</a> with the election of former astronaut Mark Kelly.</p>
<p>Arizona, like Florida, has long been a conservative stronghold, home to large numbers of “<a href="https://arizonasnowbird.com/">snowbirds</a>” – older people drawn to the warm climate and golf courses. Arizona Latinos are changing that. Most are of Mexican descent. </p>
<p>Mexican Americans are the United States’ <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/234852/us-hispanic-population/">largest Latino group</a>. Arizona was actually part of Mexico until 1848. So some Latino families there were Mexican before they were Mexican American. Others migrated from Mexico more recently. </p>
<p>These Latinos live a different political reality than the Cubans of Florida. In 2010 Arizona passed <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_SB_1070">SB 1070</a>, requiring <a href="https://www.findlaw.com/immigration/immigration-laws-and-resources/arizona-immigration-law-s-b-1070.html">local law enforcement</a> to enforce federal immigration policy by checking the immigration status of anyone they had a “reasonable suspicion” of being undocumented. Latinos, predictably, became the targets of racialized, aggressive policing. </p>
<p>The discriminatory effects of SB 1070 led to an upsurge in <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/awakened-sb1070-one-arizona-now-model-latino-voter-registration-n647891">Latino youth organizing</a>. This decade-long mobilization eventually led to the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/08/politics/joe-arpaio-loses-primary-sheriff/index.html">ouster of Maricopa County’s notoriously anti-immigrant Sheriff Joe Arpaio</a>, who had a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/joe-arpaio-arizona-sheriff-election-trump-pardon-jerry-sheridan-a9661196.html">well-documented</a> friendship with Trump. And it put Arizona in play for Democrats this year.</p>
<p>Biden’s team <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-campaign-ramping-up-outreach-to-arizona-latinos">did not focus on</a> Latino outreach in Arizona until the last weeks of the campaign. But young, U.S.-born Latinos were politically engaged there anyway, because of their sustained political organizing since SB 1070. Latino-led organizations like <a href="https://luchaaz.org/">LUCHA</a> turned Arizona Latinos out for Biden in droves. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367981/original/file-20201106-15-5okz4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Young woman in Phoenix wearing mask." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367981/original/file-20201106-15-5okz4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367981/original/file-20201106-15-5okz4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367981/original/file-20201106-15-5okz4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367981/original/file-20201106-15-5okz4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367981/original/file-20201106-15-5okz4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367981/original/file-20201106-15-5okz4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367981/original/file-20201106-15-5okz4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carla Retana, in Phoenix, Arizona on Nov. 3, said she voted for Biden mostly because she doesn’t like how Trump speaks, especially about women.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VoterVoicesArizona/0ae60b9c058b43d8b3a3d79a6ef51d0f/photo?Query=Biden%20AND%20Arizona&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=89&currentItemNo=10">Terry Tang/AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Mariachi politics’</h2>
<p>Florida and Arizona clarify some major differences among Latinos in the United States, and how that effects their politics. </p>
<p>The race, gender, class and age of U.S. Latinos also influences their political leanings and levels of <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Latino+Politics%2C+2nd+Edition-p-9780745686424">incorporation into U.S. politics</a>. So do the places they live, the opportunities available to them there, how they are treated under U.S. immigration policy – indeed, whether they are immigrants at all.</p>
<p>If political parties want Latinos’ support, it would require culturally competent outreach that speaks to their real lives and everyday experiences. Instead, campaigns generally settle for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/biden-latino-vote.html?searchResultPosition=1">Spanish-language television ads</a> – even though the majority of Latino eligible voters speak <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2015/05/12/english-proficiency-on-the-rise-among-latinos/">English as their main language</a>. </p>
<p>These ads are much more likely to be symbolic than substantive, <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=16189">research by political scientist Marisa Abrajano shows</a>. Campaigns use cultural symbols like traditional Mexican music or tacos to connect with Latino voters rather than presenting concrete policy proposals about issues they care about, whether that’s health care, immigration policy or the economy. </p>
<p>I call this “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/21565503.2012.758593">mariachi politics</a>.” In Florida, it might be called “cafecito politics” – a reference to Cubans’ tendency to argue politics over coffee. Both Republicans and Democrats do this every electoral cycle, <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/targeting-latino-vote-trump-and-biden-campaigns-rely-on-spanish-language-tv-ads-down-home-stretch">2020 included</a>, homogenizing and flattening what are complex populations. </p>
<p>Pollsters do the same thing, which is why they keep getting Latinos wrong.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149515/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa García Bedolla contributed to the Biden campaign in 2020. She has received funding from the Open Society Foundations, Ford Foundation, Civic Participation Action Fund, Piper Fund and The James Irvine Foundation. She serves on the boards of Community Change Action and Courage Campaign.</span></em></p>What the polls and the candidates keep getting wrong about the United States’ largest minority group.Lisa García Bedolla, Vice Provost for Graduate Studies and Dean of the Graduate Division, Professor of Education, University of California, BerkeleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1336002020-03-18T01:44:03Z2020-03-18T01:44:03ZAll Latinos don’t vote the same way – their place of origin matters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321132/original/file-20200317-60906-s2vsqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hispanic voters go to the polls for early voting in 2004.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/hispanic-voters-go-to-the-polls-for-early-voting-at-the-news-photo/51536533?adppopup=true">G. De Cardenas/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Joe Biden won <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/17/us/elections/results-florida-president-democrat-primary-election.html">Florida’s 2020 Democratic primary</a>, capturing <a href="https://apnews.com/b9a430d29e1825764f4c83e4211f9e75">a majority of the state’s Latino voters</a>.</p>
<p>Polls have been tracking the Latino vote in Democratic presidential primaries, and many analysts are trying to predict which candidate Latinos might favor in November. Interest in Florida has been especially strong.</p>
<p>Observers commonly speak of “the Latino vote” as if Latinos make up a distinct and unified interest group. This both overstates and understates Latinos’ uniqueness. Latinos are a highly diverse population, beginning with where they and their families are from. For many Latinos, political events that affect their places of origin significantly influence their electoral preferences. </p>
<p>Given the uneven geographic distribution of Latino communities, these differences may be consequential in certain state elections, as seen most clearly in Florida, where Latinos make up 20% of the eligible electorate. </p>
<p>Since Florida is an important swing state, these voters’ choices can make a difference to national election outcomes.</p>
<h2>Breaking down the Latino vote</h2>
<p>As a group, the nation’s <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/">32 million Latino potential voters</a> are somewhat more likely than non-Latinos to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/01/17/latino-democratic-voters-place-high-importance-on-2020-presidential-election">lean Democratic</a>. About 62% identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 34% affiliate with or lean to the Republicans.</p>
<p>Their policy preferences align broadly with those of their parties, but the partisan gap tends to be smaller than among U.S. voters as a whole. In <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/20/latino-voters-favor-raising-minimum-wage-government-involvement-in-health-care-stricter-gun-laws/">a 2019 Pew survey</a>, for example, 82% of Latino Democrats and 51% of Latino Republicans believed government “should do more to solve problems.” Among non-Latinos, the corresponding figures were 79% and 22%.</p>
<p>An important way in which Latino voters differ from non-Latinos, and vary among themselves, relates to where they or their forebears came from.</p>
<p>Voters who identify as Latino vary in their places of origin. The ancestors of some lived in North America long before the westward expansion of the United States; Puerto Ricans became U.S. citizens after the Spanish-American War; and millions of others immigrated from nations throughout the Americas and the Caribbean.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/fact-sheet/latinos-in-the-2016-election-florida/">Mexican Americans are the largest group</a>, at about 60% of eligible Latino voters. Puerto Ricans come second, with 14%, followed by Cubans at 4%.</p>
<h2>Cuban Americans and Florida</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/central-american-governments-cant-stop-migration/586726/">our research</a> on the recent wave of migrants from Central America, we highlighted the problems, from economic insecurity to the prevalence of violence, that motivated people to undertake the often-treacherous journey to the United States.</p>
<p>Our present work examines how the voting preferences of some Latino migrants continue to be shaped by political events and conditions “back home,” even decades after leaving. </p>
<p>The persistent power of the place once called home to shape electoral choices is most apparent among two groups, Cuban Americans and Puerto Ricans. Both have large communities in Florida, giving that state a unique demographic profile.</p>
<p><iframe id="oOyXi" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oOyXi/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Florida’s Cuban American voters have long made toppling the communist government of Cuba a priority in presidential and congressional elections. </p>
<p>Unusual among Latinos, Cuban Americans have historically favored Republicans, although this <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/06/24/after-decades-of-gop-support-cubans-shifting-toward-the-democratic-party/">preference is declining</a>. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/15/unlike-other-latinos-about-half-of-cuban-voters-in-florida-backed-trump/">Still, in 2016, Donald Trump</a> got more than half of Florida’s Cuban American vote, compared to only a quarter of non-Cuban Latino votes. As a rough estimate, about half a million Cuban Americans voted in the Florida election. Trump won the state by only 112,911 votes. </p>
<p>Many Cuban Americans have pressed their elected representatives for more aggressive U.S. policies aimed at ousting both the government of Cuba and the pro-Cuban socialist government of Venezuela. These voters are joined in this by many in the state’s growing Venezuelan community, as well as residents of Colombian and Nicaraguan heritage.</p>
<p>These communities’ influence can be seen in the strong language Florida’s congressional Democrats use to criticize the autocratic governments of communist Cuba and socialist Venezuela. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1231760466776657923"}"></div></p>
<p>In recent decades, Cuban Americans’ attitudes about regime change in Cuba have become more divided. Polls reveal emerging splits between those who left Cuba before 1980 and those who left more recently or were born in the U.S. The <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/23/as-cuban-american-demographics-change-so-do-views-of-cuba/">younger voters and more recent migrants</a> favor a friendlier stance toward Cuba: ending the U.S. embargo, lifting travel restrictions and deepening diplomatic relations with the island.</p>
<p>In a 2019 <a href="https://cri.fiu.edu/research/cuba-poll/2018-fiu-cuba-poll.pdf">Florida International University poll</a> of Cuban American adults in Miami-Dade County, home to almost half the Cuban Americans in the U.S., only 8% identified policy toward Cuba as the top issue influencing their votes in 2018. Domestic policy issues may take precedence, but concern about conditions in Cuba endures.</p>
<h2>Growing presence of Puerto Ricans</h2>
<p>As the role of place begins to change within the Cuban American community, a new politics of place is becoming evident among Puerto Ricans.</p>
<p>After Hurricane Maria devastated the island in 2017, tens of thousands emigrated to the mainland, with at least <a href="https://centropr.hunter.cuny.edu/sites/default/files/data_briefs/Hurricane_maria_1YR.pdf">one-third going to Florida</a> to join the million Puerto Ricans already living there. Puerto Ricans might soon match Cuban Americans among the state’s eligible voters, though not yet in turnout.</p>
<p>Historically viewed as reliable supporters of Democrats, Florida’s Puerto Ricans have begun breaking old patterns. For example, many voted for Republican Rick Scott in his 2018 senatorial bid, a fact partly attributable to the <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/12/04/democrats-hispanic-voters-2020-222751/">multiple visits</a> Scott made as governor to their hurricane-ravaged homeland. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000169-e91a-d015-a36d-eb1bed6e0001">2019 survey</a> of Puerto Rican likely 2020 voters in Florida, more than 90% said it would be important to their vote that a candidate offered “specific solutions for the economic recovery and well-being” of the island.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stickers reading ‘He Votado Hoy,’ or ‘I Voted Today.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Vote-Sticker/621b065f81954312905c8f1582aafc27/2/0">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Final considerations</h2>
<p>The pull of family roots also matters among other Latino communities. And “home” is clearly just one of the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/10/Pew-Research-Center_Latinos-have-Serious-Concerns-About-Their-Place-in-America_2018-10-25.pdf">demographic factors</a> that shape Latinos’ electoral choices. Gender, age, income and education are also influential, as they are with other American ethnic groups.</p>
<p>Moreover, the weight of “home” tends to decline over time. Surveys of people who identify as having Latino heritage have revealed that <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/latinos-in-the-new-millennium/D5A6F4CFAA24B05B741C2A302164B00B/">successive generations</a> report lower levels of attention to politics in their country of origin.</p>
<p>However, to the extent that many Latino voters remain highly motivated by concerns about conditions “back home,” candidates seeking their votes will do well not to ignore this aspect of diversity.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133600/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One way in which Latino voters vary is where they or their forebears came from. In states like Florida, that difference matters.Eliza Willis, Professor of Political Science, Grinnell CollegeJanet A. Seiz, Associate Professor of Economics, Grinnell CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1119472019-02-18T13:16:32Z2019-02-18T13:16:32ZTrump may seek more punishment of Cuba<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259405/original/file-20190217-56232-1g3m074.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If Cuban exiles can sue businesses operating in Cuba, it could affect flights to the country, like this JetBlue landing in Havana.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Cuba-U-S-/085608a155c04bf5b52d6f19a246548c/12/0">AP/Desmond Boylan</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump may soon do a huge favor for Cuba’s wealthy, upper-class exiles, many of whom are now U.S. citizens living in Miami.</p>
<p>Some of them <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article213916384.html">still dream</a> of recouping their lost fortunes in Cuba, and Trump may try to make that possible.</p>
<p>Much of that wealthy upper class went into exile in Miami in the 1960s, when the Cuban revolution turned to socialism and Fidel Castro’s government <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Cuban-Revolution">nationalized their businesses and confiscated</a> their property.</p>
<p>More than 20 years ago, Congress passed a sanctions law that included a provision to help these Cuban exiles who are now U.S. citizens. The <a href="https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/latin-america/article224646995.html">provision would allow them to sue in U.S. courts</a> companies that operate using property that the exiles lost in the 1959 revolution. </p>
<p>The lawsuit provision, known as Title III, was <a href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/19991214_RL30386_714aa7ff79cec8fc7f29926c448f6d1bc1d6bef2.pdf">put on hold because it triggered immense opposition</a> from U.S. allies, whose companies operating in Cuba would become targets of litigation in U.S. courts. </p>
<p>If Trump activates the provision, it could reignite that opposition, complicating already rocky relations with Mexico, Canada, the European Union – and obviously Cuba – at a time when the U.S. needs <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/02/04/world/europe/ap-eu-venezuela-political-crisis.html">their help</a> to deal with the crisis in Venezuela.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/faculty/wleogra.cfm">scholar of U.S. relations with Latin America</a>, especially Cuba, I’ve closely followed the Trump administration’s growing antagonism toward Havana. But activating Title III would represent a quantum leap in hostility.</p>
<h2>Triggering new sanctions</h2>
<p>The people who stand to benefit from activating this law are Cuba’s pre-revolutionary rich – what was once <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/castro-cuban-exiles-america/">Cuba’s “One Percent.”</a></p>
<p>They arrived in the U.S. expecting Washington to quickly overthrow Fidel Castro and restore their power, property and privilege. Instead, the revolutionary government survived and by the <a href="https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/1139/1/S0900391_en.pdf">1990s was attracting foreign direct investment</a> from Canada, Europe and Latin America.</p>
<p>In 1996, Sen. Jesse Helms, R-N.C., and Rep. Dan Burton, R-Ind., sponsored the <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/documents/libertad.pdf">Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act</a>. It passed after anti-Cuba sentiment in the U.S. was galvanized when the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/US/9602/cuba_shootdown/25/">Cuban Air Force shot down two civilian planes piloted by Cuban-Americans</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259406/original/file-20190217-56220-1ka7vl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259406/original/file-20190217-56220-1ka7vl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259406/original/file-20190217-56220-1ka7vl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259406/original/file-20190217-56220-1ka7vl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259406/original/file-20190217-56220-1ka7vl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259406/original/file-20190217-56220-1ka7vl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259406/original/file-20190217-56220-1ka7vl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259406/original/file-20190217-56220-1ka7vl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cuban women who fled their country in an Immigration Service room in Jacksonville, Fla., while arrangements are made to grant them political asylum in the U.S., Jan. 1, 1959.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-A-FL-USA-APHS460141-Cuba-Revolution-C-/cfa63ac7d7ac445d95673fabb8324785/12/0">AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-cuba/us-considering-allowing-lawsuits-over-cuba-confiscated-properties-idUSKCN1PA30I">Title III</a> of the law specifically targeted foreign investors in Cuba.</p>
<p>It gave naturalized Cuban Americans permission to <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/22/6023">sue in U.S. federal court anyone “trafficking” in (that is, using or profiting from) property</a> the exiles lost in the 1959 revolution, when they were Cuban citizens. </p>
<p>Normally, U.S. courts have no jurisdiction over property owned by non-citizens that is nationalized by a foreign government. For U.S. courts to sit in judgment of another government’s actions towards its own citizens would be a challenge to that government’s sovereignty.</p>
<p>Since virtually all property in pre-revolutionary Cuba was privately held, the foreign companies operating there, including many that also do business in the U.S., fear <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-cuba-economy/investors-in-cuba-wary-of-impact-from-u-s-threats-venezuela-crisis-idUSKCN1PW2UJ">being accused of profiting</a> from confiscated property and getting caught up in Title III lawsuits.</p>
<p>Consequently, U.S. allies bitterly opposed the law as illegal U.S. interference in their commerce with Cuba. </p>
<p>The European Union <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB931464187753635502">filed a complaint</a> against the U.S. with the World Trade Organization in 1996 and adopted a statute prohibiting EU members and their companies from complying with Title III. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1996/06/13/world/canada-and-mexico-join-to-oppose-us-law-on-cuba.html">Mexico, Canada</a> and the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1996/3171/contents/made">United Kingdom</a> passed similar legislation.</p>
<p>In response, President <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1998/04/21/world/europeans-drop-lawsuit-contesting-cuba-trade-act.html">Bill Clinton suspended</a> Title III of the act for six months, which the law allowed. The suspension has to be renewed every six months. Since then, every president, Democrat and Republican, has renewed the suspension. Donald Trump has already renewed it three times.</p>
<p>But recently, there have been indications that the longtime practice of suspending Title III’s provisions may end soon.</p>
<p>In November 2018, National Security Adviser John <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article220976370.html">Bolton threatened to activate Title III</a>, saying, “This time, we’ll give it a very serious review.” In January, Secretary of State Mike <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/trump-weighs-dramatic-tightening-of-us-embargo-on-cuba/2019/01/17/4f8e3da0-1a8f-11e9-b8e6-567190c2fd08_story.html?utm_term=.5d3741640c7a">Pompeo announced</a> a short 45-day suspension while the administration studied the issue. </p>
<p>The president has until the end of February to notify Congress if he decides to extend the suspension. Otherwise, Title III takes effect automatically.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259411/original/file-20190217-56212-10rq0o1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259411/original/file-20190217-56212-10rq0o1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259411/original/file-20190217-56212-10rq0o1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259411/original/file-20190217-56212-10rq0o1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259411/original/file-20190217-56212-10rq0o1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259411/original/file-20190217-56212-10rq0o1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259411/original/file-20190217-56212-10rq0o1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259411/original/file-20190217-56212-10rq0o1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., at a Miami event in 2017 where President Trump announced the revised policy against Cuba.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-Cuba/02e2bcf00f64494795fdf45389daf850/27/0">AP/Lynne Sladky</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Politics in command</h2>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/19/the-mystery-of-the-havana-syndrome">The New Yorker</a> magazine, Trump gave White House staff paltry guidance on Cuba policy at the beginning of his administration. </p>
<p>“Make Rubio happy,” he told them. </p>
<p>Sen. <a href="https://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticias/mundo/america-latina/cuba-es/article224693495.html">Marco Rubio</a>, R-Fla., and Rep. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-cuba/us-considering-allowing-lawsuits-over-cuba-confiscated-properties-idUSKCN1PA30I">Mario Díaz-Balart</a>, R-Fla, are <a href="https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/latin-america/article224646995.html">the principal advocates for Title III</a>. They are Cuban-Americans who represent the oldest, most conservative and wealthiest segment of the Miami Cuban community. From their mansions in Miami, that elite still wields disproportionate influence over U.S. policy through these legislators.</p>
<p>Most Cuban-Americans will gain nothing from Title III. It exempts private residences from compensation. So, if an exile’s main asset was their home, they are out of luck. </p>
<p>The provision also <a href="http://cubantriangle.blogspot.com/2019/01/more-on-title-iii.html">exempts businesses worth less than US$50,000 in 1959 </a> – $433,000 today, adjusted for inflation. The exiled owners of thousands of <a href="https://havanatimes.org/?p=74021">small mom-and-pop shops nationalized in 1968</a> are out of luck, too.</p>
<p>Still, a 1996 <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44822">State Department analysis</a> estimated that Title III could flood U.S. federal courts with as many as 200,000 lawsuits, creating a legal morass that would take years to sort out. </p>
<p>In the meantime, most U.S. firms and some foreign ones would likely <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2019-02-07/investors-in-cuba-wary-of-impact-from-us-threats-venezuela-crisis">hesitate to enter</a> into commercial relations with Cuba for fear of becoming litigation targets in the United States. That’s a major purpose of Title III – to stymie Cuba’s economic development. </p>
<p>Cuban American families have already voiced claims for the <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article213916384.html">port of Havana</a> and <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/news/cuba/us-might-allow-lawsuits-over-us-properties-nationalized-in-cuba-20190117/">José Martí International Airport</a>, putting cruise ship companies and airlines on notice that they could face potential legal jeopardy over their use of these properties. </p>
<p>If these companies pull out of the Cuban market, Americans would still have a right to travel to Cuba, but no way to get there. </p>
<p>If Title III reduces foreign investment in Cuba, it will damage Cuba’s already <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-economy/cuba-lowers-economic-growth-forecast-as-trade-continues-to-drop-idUSKCN1N90JO">fragile economy</a>, which in turn would hurt the standard of living of ordinary Cubans. </p>
<p>In retaliation, Havana might well stop buying agricultural goods from U.S. farmers. That’s a market of over <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/cuba">$250 million</a> annually that American farmers can ill afford to lose when exports are down due to Trump’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/06/farm-crisis-trump-trade-policies-1147987">trade wars</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/donald-trump-says-cuban-voters-love-him-but-hes-wrong-9146019">Trump believes</a> he won Florida in 2016 because of the Cuban-American vote, and he thinks Rubio can deliver it again in 2020. </p>
<p>I think Trump is miscalculating. </p>
<p>The remnants of Cuba’s pre-revolutionary “One Percent” no longer represent the Cuban-American community as a whole. By decisive majorities, <a href="https://cri.fiu.edu/research/cuba-poll/2018-fiu-cuba-poll.pdf">Cuban-Americans support</a> free travel between the U.S. and Cuba, broader commercial ties and President Obama’s decision to normalize relations. Every year, they send <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/17/opinion/cuba-castro-united-states.html">$3 billion</a> to family on the island, and hundreds of thousands of them travel there to visit.</p>
<p>Those Cuban-American voters may not want to inflict more economic pain on ordinary Cubans, including their friends and family. Come 2020, they may punish a president who does.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111947/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William M. LeoGrande does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cuban exiles in the US may soon be able to sue companies that use property seized from them in the Cuban revolution. If Trump moves to allow that, it could slow economic development in Cuba.William M. LeoGrande, Professor of Government, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/795592017-06-16T20:54:04Z2017-06-16T20:54:04ZTrump nods to Cuban exiles, rolls back ties: Experts react<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174241/original/file-20170616-493-1ntcnsl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will Trump's policy put a freeze on the U.S.-Cuba thaw?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: President Donald Trump announced on Friday a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-06-16/trump-rolls-back-obama-led-cuba-opening-with-new-limits-on-deals">partial reversal of former President Barack Obama’s</a> policy of engagement with Cuba. Trump restored travel restrictions and prohibited financial transactions with the Cuban military. Under the new policy, Americans visiting Cuba for specific, approved purposes will be forbidden from spending money in hotels or restaurants with ties to the military. Airlines and cruise ships, however, may continue to expand travel to the island, while the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/open-cubas-market-to-u-s-farmers-1497396058">U.S. embargo</a> will remain in place. We asked two experts on U.S.-Cuba relations to explain what these changes mean.</em></p>
<h2>Politics over policy</h2>
<p><strong>William M. LeoGrande, American University</strong></p>
<p>Cuba “is a domestic issue for the United States and not a foreign policy issue,” Brent Scowcroft, President George H. W. Bush’s national security adviser, <a href="http://www.cubanet.org/htdocs/CNews/y98/nov98/24e3.htm">observed</a> in 1998. “It focuses more on votes in Florida.” From the end of the Cold War in 1991 until 2014, when Obama <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2014/12/17/statement-president-cuba-policy-changes">decided</a> normalizing relations would better serve U.S. interests abroad, U.S. presidential candidates feared that any opening to Cuba would cost them Cuban-American votes in the battleground state of Florida.</p>
<p>Now, Trump has turned back the clock and announced a new Cuba policy at the Manual Artime Theater in Miami’s Little Havana – named after the leader of the Cuban exile brigade that stormed ashore <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/bay-of-pigs">at the Bay of Pigs</a>. According to senior administration officials, Trump decided to tighten the U.S. embargo because he owed a political debt to the brigade’s veterans’ association, which <a href="http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2016/10/cuban-exile-brigade-makes-first-ever-presidential-endorsement-for-trump.html">endorsed</a> him for president at a time when the race in Florida looked close. In return, he promised to reverse Obama’s policy. Promise made, promise kept.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174242/original/file-20170616-1205-v60rl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174242/original/file-20170616-1205-v60rl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174242/original/file-20170616-1205-v60rl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174242/original/file-20170616-1205-v60rl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174242/original/file-20170616-1205-v60rl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174242/original/file-20170616-1205-v60rl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174242/original/file-20170616-1205-v60rl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump shows the signed executive order surrounded by Cabinet members and supporters in Miami on Friday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Lynne Sladky</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In May, an interagency policy review of Obama’s Cuba policy found that it was working. Trump’s White House <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article156337719.html">rejected</a> the result and wrote its own hard-line policy with the help of Cuban-American legislators Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart and Sen. Marco Rubio. “They worked with us hand in glove,” <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/15/background-briefing-presidents-cuba-policy">explained</a> a senior administration official. </p>
<p>But they didn’t get everything they wanted. Díaz-Balart’s <a href="http://latinamericagoesglobal.org/2017/03/congressman-mario-diaz-balarts-memo-white-house-re-cuba-policy-changes/">original recommendation</a> was to roll back everything Obama had done to foster trade and travel. Faced with a flood of <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/11/20/cuba-donald-trump-barack-obama-diplomatic-opening/93956270/">appeals</a> from U.S. businesses not to cut them out of the Cuban market, Trump relented, prohibiting only people-to-people travel by individuals and financial transactions with enterprises managed by the Cuban military. As the administration official <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/15/background-briefing-presidents-cuba-policy">explained</a>, “You can’t put the genie back in the bottle 100 percent.”</p>
<p>As foreign policy, Trump’s new tough stance makes little sense, in my opinion. Many Latin American countries expressed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/12/world/americas/obama-cuba-summit-of-the-americas.html?_r=0">support for Obama’s policy</a> of engagement. By reversing it, Trump imperils their cooperation on issues like migration and narcotics trafficking. Disengaging also leaves the door open for China and Russia to continue expanding their influence on the island. </p>
<p>Finally, the United States needs Cuba’s cooperation on issues of mutual interest such as environmental protection, counter-narcotics cooperation, and migration – cooperation that will be harder to sustain now that Trump has restarted the Cold War in the Caribbean.</p>
<h2>Bad for business?</h2>
<p><strong>Brian Gendreau, University of Florida</strong></p>
<p>Essentially, the Trump administration’s goal is to loosen the grip of the Cuban government and military on the economy and, in doing so, encourage growth in the <a href="https://www.engagecuba.org/cubas-private-sector/">private sector</a> and lead to political change. </p>
<p>It is far from clear, however, that the new policy will achieve these aims. Rather, its immediate effect will be to hurt Cuba’s <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/cubas-budding-private-sector-looks-nervously-to-future-1484044230">nascent private sector</a>, especially in the tourism industry, in which the business arm of the Cuban military (known as GAESA) is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-cuba-military-idUSKBN1962VK">heavily involved</a>. U.S. businesses won’t be happy either. </p>
<p>Thanks to the thaw, tourism had been a bright spot in Cuba’s economy, which <a href="http://www.babalublog.com/2016/12/29/reports-from-cuba-cuban-economy-in-2016-gdp-contracted-0-9/">suffered its first decline</a> in 23 years in 2016 because of a drop in export income. In contrast, tourism has been booming as a <a href="http://cubajournal.co/cuba-attracts-record-visitors-in-2016/">record 4 million tourists</a> visited Cuba last year, an increase of 13 percent, with a growing share from the United States. </p>
<p>Trump’s tighter travel restrictions will likely reverse that trend and discourage Americans from visiting the island, adversely affecting private Cuban businesses – and the jobs and incomes that depend on them – as well as American companies that were hoping to benefit from the opening of relations initiated under Obama. </p>
<p>And the prohibition on direct dealings with the military will make it harder for hotels expanding to Cuba to operate. In mid-2016, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/roadwarriorvoices/2016/06/30/first-hotel-us-company-opens-havana/86581276/">Starwood</a> became the first U.S. hotel company to operate a location in Cuba in almost 60 years, and many other chains <a href="http://www.caribbeannewsdigital.com/en/noticia/major-us-hotel-chains-could-land-cuba-anytime-soon">have been expressing interest</a> in expanding to the island.</p>
<p>These U.S. hotel chains may have to withdraw or scrap expansion plans unless the Cuban government pushes the military out of the industry – which is possible.</p>
<p>Even Cuban businesses with absolutely no ties to the military – such as private restaurants and small bed-and-breakfasts – will be hurt by the policy changes because of the likely drop in American visitors. </p>
<p>As it happens, the new policy seems out of step with a large part of the business community and most Americans. For example, the Trump administration will continue to face pressure from U.S. business and agricultural companies, many with close ties to the Republican Party, to expand commercial relations with Cuba. These include <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/open-cubas-market-to-u-s-farmers-1497396058">efforts to end the prohibition on the use of credit</a> in sales of farm products to Cuba (currently transactions must take place in cash). </p>
<p>And <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/1630/cuba.aspx">polls show</a> a growing share of Americans favor normal relations with Cuba. Nearly six in 10 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/international/obama-in-cuba/most-americans-support-ending-cuba-embargo-nyt-poll-finds">support lifting the embargo</a>. </p>
<p>For the time being, however, a dwindling number of advocates of a hard line on Cuba have prevailed, and there are no new negotiations with Cuba on the horizon. Eventually, however, pressures from business and popular will may force the president to try to broker a broader deal with Cuba including, perhaps, an end to the embargo.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79559/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Gendreau receives funding through the University of Florida under a National Resource Center grant from the U.S. Department of Education to produce an annual report on the Latin American business environment. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William M. LeoGrande is a member of the Advisory Board of the Cuba Consortium, a project of the Howard Baker Forum.</span></em></p>The president restored restrictions on Americans’ travel to Cuba and prohibited transactions with its military. Here’s why, and what’s to come.Brian Gendreau, Director, Latin American Business Environment program, University of FloridaWilliam M. LeoGrande, Professor of Government, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/698202016-12-14T11:14:25Z2016-12-14T11:14:25ZWhat Castro’s death and Trump’s election mean for Cuba’s economic awakening<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/farewell-fidel-castro-dies-aged-90-69451">Before his death</a> on Nov. 25 at the age of 90, Fidel Castro had made no secret about his reservations about the normalization of relations with the United States and had insisted that the ideals of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/cuba-2759?page=1">Cuban Revolution</a> would never be abandoned.</p>
<p>So following his death it is natural to wonder if the economic reforms initiated by his brother, Raúl Castro, will accelerate or <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-cubas-reform-going-in-reverse-67830">what else might happen</a>. </p>
<p>Since his death, we haven’t seen any instability. This is unlikely to change: <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/11/27/cuban-president-ral-castro-pragmatist-who-made-reforms/94517778/">Raul has been in charge</a> since 2008 and has no plans to step down until his term as president is up in 2018. He has remained a supporter of the reforms despite disagreements with his brother. </p>
<p>But it would be unrealistic to expect a swift transition to a more open market economy, as I’ve learned from 25 years spent following Latin America’s economies and politics. Internal opposition to the reforms persists in Cuba, which helps explain why implementation of the reforms has been slow, and with the election of Donald Trump, the thaw in relations with the United States that has encouraged those reforms is, for the time being, in question.</p>
<h2>The thaw begins</h2>
<p>Since Raúl Castro <a href="http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/cuba-under-ra%C3%BAl-castro-assessing-reforms-carmelo-mesa-lago-and-jorge-p%C3%A9rez-l%C3%B3pez">began a series of reforms</a> after replacing his ailing brother as president in 2008, market forces have begun to play a larger role in the Cuban economy.</p>
<p>Cuban citizens <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-moves-to-legalize-small-and-medium-size-businesses-1464132702">are now allowed to operate small businesses</a> such as restaurants, barber shops and room rentals, and they can buy and sell homes. Individuals and cooperatives are allowed to cultivate unused plots of land. Managers have been given more autonomy to allocate resources. </p>
<p>These reforms have been accompanied by fewer restrictions on travel by Cubans abroad and by the gradual spread of communication technology. Cellphones are more common in Cuba than they were just a year ago, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-us-relations-thaw-hopes-grow-in-cuba-for-a-faster-freer-internet-44937">Wi-Fi spots</a> have become popular in Havana, though so far not many exist.</p>
<h2>A slow pace</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/cubaseconomicsocialreformsmesalago.pdf">pace of reform</a>, however, has been uneven and slow. Self-employment is still limited to specific and usually unskilled activities. Architects, for example, may drive taxis but still cannot go into business in their own profession.</p>
<p>The government explicitly prohibits the accumulation of wealth – hardly an incentive to entrepreneurship – though it is hard to imagine that this is enforced effectively. And backtracking has occurred in some areas. </p>
<p>In January, for example, the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-congress-reforms-idUSKCN0XB16Z">state shut down</a> some street vendors and asserted control of part of the food distribution system, which had earlier been opened to private participation. </p>
<p>And not everyone in Cuba is happy with the reforms. The Cuban government laid off almost 600,000 government workers from 2010 to 2014 in an effort to improve productivity and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/cubaseconomicsocialreformsmesalago.pdf">free up labor for the private sector</a>. While there have been no announcements recently of plans for further layoffs, the three-quarters of Cuba’s workers that are still on government payrolls are apprehensive. Complaints that tourists and rising incomes in the private sector are raising prices are common in Havana. </p>
<p>As the government seeks to encourage a more vibrant economy in the face of resistance to change, the outcome is likely to be a continuation of the reforms, but at a controlled pace. Raul Castro <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ad492f96ff4341eea9c6d16f33171d84/raul-castro-presents-grim-portrait-cuban-reform">indicated</a> as much at the Communist Party Congress in April, when he said Cuba’s reforms would proceed with “neither haste nor pause.”</p>
<h2>Two economic shocks</h2>
<p>Cuba’s economy, meanwhile, is in trouble after <a href="http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1774820161&Country=Cuba&topic=Economy&subtopic=Forecast&subsubtopic=Forecast+summary">growing at a brisk 4.4 percent in 2015</a> as tourism- and construction-related investment boomed.</p>
<p>Growth is decelerating sharply this year as Cuba struggles to cope with two external shocks. </p>
<p>First, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-trade-idUSKBN13600L">prices</a> for Cuba’s traditional exports of nickel, refined oil and sugar have fallen with global commodity prices since mid-2014 and remain low. Second, with its own economy in shambles, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-cuba-oil-idUSKCN0ZO0DI">Venezuela cut supplies</a> of oil to Cuba by as much as 40 percent. </p>
<p>Cuba has traditionally swapped medical services for oil with Venezuela and sold the oil it refines from Venezuela to the rest of the world. As a result of the cutbacks in oil imports, Cuba has had to ration energy domestically and delay payments to foreign creditors, while its oil export earnings plummet. </p>
<p>While rumors of a return to the hardships Cuba suffered in the early 1990s after the loss of subsidized trade with the Soviet Union are exaggerated – earnings from tourism will help offset the lower oil imports – Cuba will be lucky to eke out any growth at all in 2017.</p>
<h2>A third shock</h2>
<p>Cuba may yet be hit with a third shock: a chilling of relations with the United States. </p>
<p>Donald Trump has said <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/16/politics/donald-trump-cuba/">he will reverse</a> the deal <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-obama-makes-historic-visit-is-cuba-ready-for-change-56399">President Barack Obama</a> reached in 2014 to <a href="https://theconversation.com/obamas-cuba-move-is-more-a-milestone-than-a-turning-point-35704">reopen relations</a> with Cuba and relax restrictions on trade and travel unless the Castro regime agrees to free political prisoners and restore political freedoms. Cuba <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/centralamericaandthecaribbean/cuba/11340407/Cuba-frees-all-53-political-prisoners-agreed-in-US-deal.html">released 53 political prisoners</a> a few weeks after the Obama administration’s 2014 announcement but has resisted calls to free more political prisoners since then.</p>
<p>The normalization of relations between the two countries has supported Cuba’s reforms by supplying a stream of new visitors to the island and by increasing Cuba’s connectivity with the rest of the world. Although tourism is still banned under the <a href="http://www.coha.org/helms-burton-act-resurrecting-the-iron-curtain/">Helms-Burton Act of 1996</a>, in 2015 140,000 U.S. citizens <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/story?id=118859">took advantage</a> of one of the 12 licenses established in December 2014 under which the United States permits travel to Cuba – a 54 percent increase over 2014. </p>
<p>U.S. airlines <a href="http://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-tips/airlines-airports/airlines-that-fly-to-cuba">commenced regular air service</a> to Cuba this year, and several cruise lines now offer trips to the island. Several U.S. mobile carriers have signed voice, text and data-roaming agreements with Etecsa, the Cuban telecommunications provider. A Florida-based bank <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/b325b8b31f8640bb9e0e350df43c8e5e/florida-bank-issues-first-us-credit-card-use-cuba">has issued a credit card</a> intended for use in Cuba, and U.S. credit cards are accepted for currency transactions at state-owned foreign exchange facilities in Havana, though they so far do not work elsewhere in Cuba.</p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>Absent details on the president-elect’s intentions on Cuba, it is difficult to see how relations will unfold. Here’s my read on the situation: </p>
<p>The new administration will initially take a hard line on Cuba – to do otherwise would appear to be backing down from <a href="http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2016/11/absent-better-deal-trump-pledges-to-terminate-cuba-opening.html">campaign promises</a>. History suggests, however, that Cuba will steadfastly resist demands on human rights or democratic reforms, even if it means enduring considerable hardships. This means that a standoff and worsening of relations is possible, which could involve restrictions on travel and trade. </p>
<p>But there are long-term costs to isolating Cuba. </p>
<p>A chill in relations would mean U.S. businesses would lose out to foreign competitors. Cuban-Americans could have their ability to see and support relatives in Cuba hampered. Americans would not be able to enjoy travel to the island or to buy Cuban cigars and rum. </p>
<p>In fact, a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/international/obama-in-cuba/most-americans-support-ending-cuba-embargo-nyt-poll-finds">New York Times/CBS poll</a> has found that nearly six in 10 Americans support normalizing relations with Cuba, and a <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article101749052.html">2016 Florida International University poll</a> found that a majority – 56 percent – of Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County “strongly” or “mostly” favors a reengagement with the island. </p>
<p>Cuba, meanwhile, has an obvious interest in avoiding isolation. Tourism provides a good example. According to a <a href="http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=524362836&Country=Cuba&topic=Economy">30-year development plan</a> by Cuba’s Ministry of Tourism, capacity in Cuba’s hotels is to grow from 63,000 rooms today to 85,000 in 2020 and 200,000 in 2030. It is hard to see how those hotel rooms can be filled with a full U.S. trade and travel embargo still in place.</p>
<p>The day after Fidel Castro’s death, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/26/us/politics/us-cuba-relations-fidel-castro-donald-trump.html?_r=0">Trump called him</a> a “brutal dictator” and said “our administration will do all it can to ensure the Cuban people can finally begin their journey toward prosperity and liberty.” </p>
<p>The second phrase suggests that he is leaving the door open to a rapprochement. Trump sees himself as the “negotiator in chief,” so the temptation to try to get a better deal from Cuba will be strong. Such negotiations, however, are bound to be to be difficult: Human rights, claims for expropriated property and Cuba’s insistence on compensation for damages from the embargo – issues on which little or no progress was achieved in past talks – will all be on the table.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69820/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Center for Latin American Studies of the University of Florida receives funding from the U.S. Department of Education under a national Resource Center grant for an annual report on the Latin American Business Environment of which Brian Gendreau is co-author. The content of that report and of this article do not necessarily represent the policy of the U.S. Department of Education and you should not assume endorsement by the Federal Government.</span></em></p>Fidel Castro was no fan of his brother’s plans to normalize relations with the US or open the economy. Does his death suggest those plans might accelerate?Brian Gendreau, Director, Latin American Business Environment program, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/605012016-06-06T18:24:47Z2016-06-06T18:24:47ZThe Puerto Rican primary matters. Here’s why<p>On Sunday, voters across Puerto Rico headed to the polls and cast their votes for their preferred Democratic nominee. Early results show Hillary Clinton came out about <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/PR">20 points ahead</a> of Bernie Sanders, leaving her just a few delegates shy of the Democratic nomination heading into Tuesday’s voting in California and five other states.</p>
<p>Puerto Rico’s primary did not receive the media attention of many of those that preceded it. None of the major public polling firms conducted polls in Puerto Rico. Little attention was given to Puerto Rican primaries in the most popular national news outlets. And with only 60 pledged delegates, a primary late in the election season, and a population that is ineligible to vote in the elections in November, why should it? </p>
<p>Apart from respecting basic democratic ideals, there are at least two strategic reasons the Puerto Rican primaries should be the focus of broad public interest. To their credit, both the Clinton and Sanders campaigns seemed to understand this.</p>
<h2>The new route to Washington</h2>
<p>First, campaigning on the island is campaigning on the mainland. There is a long history of back and forth migration between the island and the mainland. This has accelerated in recent years with <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-puerto-rico-escape-its-72-billion-debt-trap-and-avoid-greeces-fate-59127">the sliding economy</a> and a poverty rate <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2014/acs/acsbr13-01.pdf">approaching 50 percent</a>. Today, about <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2014/08/2014-08-11_Puerto-Rico-Final.pdf">one-third</a> of Puerto Ricans born on the island live stateside. This means many Puerto Ricans living in the continental U.S. have been deeply affected by the woes facing the island. Many others have family who have.</p>
<p>The significance of this pattern is heightened by the fact that Puerto Ricans are no longer concentrated in solidly Democratic states in the Northeast like they once were. Today, their growing numbers are felt in more regions of the U.S. and are <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2014/08/2014-08-11_Puerto-Rico-Final.pdf">becoming an especially powerful force in the critical swing state of Florida</a>. With the third most electoral votes in the nation and a history of voting for the winning presidential candidate <a href="http://www.270towin.com/states/Florida">in nine out of 10</a> of the last presidential elections, candidates can not underestimate the significance of this demographic shift. </p>
<p>In turn, the unique political attention that Cuban-Americans once received may shift as Puerto Ricans take over Cubans as the largest Latino ethnic subgroup in this critical state.</p>
<h2>An important litmus test</h2>
<p>In addition to the effect that campaigning on the island has on stateside Puerto Ricans, the primaries in Puerto Rico are widely viewed as a litmus test for Latino support. </p>
<p>Low turnout in political primaries combined with limited (<a href="http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/06/02/why-polls-on-latinos-get-it-wrong-heres-what-to-look-for/">and often deeply flawed</a>) polling of Latinos makes it difficult to gauge which candidates have the greatest capacity to engage and mobilize Latino voters. Puerto Rico, however, averts these challenges in many ways, and offers an initial sense of the degree to which Latino voters will support the candidates.</p>
<p>Of course, Latinos are not a monolith. There is vast political, as well as economic and cultural, heterogeneity among Latinos. But a poor performance in Puerto Rico impedes a candidate’s ability to claim they can engage the increasingly fundamental Latino vote in November.</p>
<p>So with the significance of Puerto Rico’s primaries in mind, what mattered to voters there?</p>
<h2>‘Hispandering’ doesn’t work</h2>
<p>Voters and politicians in Puerto Rico tend to organize themselves around how they see the future of the territory’s political status. </p>
<p>Political parties on the island are largely centered around the <a href="http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/12/28/the-results-of-the-2012-plebiscite-on-puerto-ricos-political-status/">most common positions</a> – statehood, independence or maintaining some form of the status quo. But while this issue is arguably the most salient political cue, it is not necessarily driving voter’s choice of a presidential candidate.</p>
<p>And although the island’s inability to make payments on <a href="https://theconversation.com/puerto-ricos-long-fall-from-shining-star-to-the-greece-of-the-caribbean-43097">its massive debt</a> is currently the center of attention, it is not clear that candidates’ position on the territory’s right to declare bankruptcy motivated voters, either.</p>
<p>Broad positions on these issues alone often come across as philosophical abstractions or even symbolic pandering, as opposed to positions on issues deeply implicated in the daily experiences and opportunities of the island’s 3.5 million residents. </p>
<p>These issues include a <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2014/acs/acsbr13-01.pdf">poverty rate twice that of the poorest U.S. state</a>; <a href="http://chronicle.com/blogs/ticker/here-are-the-colleges-where-tuition-has-risen-the-fastest/101497">tuition rates</a> at public universities that have increased over 1,000 percent in recent years; <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/puerto-rico-treasury-visit/482562/">primary schools</a> with an unpredictable supply of electricity and infrastructure that is literally crumbling; and <a href="http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2015/12/29/the-price-of-inequality-for-puerto-rico/#one">an inability to obtain basic health services</a>, among others.</p>
<p>For many voters, it is less important that a candidate favors or opposes the debt deal or another plebiscite on the island’s status, than it is that he or she illustrates a recognition of the gravity of what is occurring in Puerto Rico, and can explain a thoughtful plan to address it. </p>
<p>That is arguably why Marco Rubio swept the Republican primary in March, picking up over 70 percent of the vote and all 23 of the island’s Republican delegates. In his two campaign visits to Puerto Rico, and in an article <a href="http://www.elnuevodia.com/opinion/columnas/mejorfuturoparapuertorico-columna-2094908/">he penned for El Nuevo Día</a>, the island’s largest daily newspaper, he highlighted his opposition to granting Puerto Rico the same bankruptcy protections afforded to municipalities in the 50 U.S. states. But he also outlined his own plan to address the challenges facing Puerto Rico. And whether one agreed with his ideas or not, he conveyed an awareness of what was going on in Puerto Rico that went beyond a blanket endorsement or rejection of someone else’s proposal.</p>
<p>This same approach served both of the Democratic candidates well, and was a key factor in Sunday’s results.</p>
<p>Clinton started off with a huge advantage in Puerto Rico. As a former senator from New York, a state with a large concentration of Puerto Ricans, she had an established history of involvement with Puerto Ricans on both the island and mainland. She won over voters in the territory’s 2008 Democratic primary by a 2-1 margin over Barack Obama. More recently she won the support of more <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/15/us/elections/florida-democrat-poll.html">than 70 percent of non-Cuban Latinos in Florida</a>. And while Bill is not Hillary, it would be negligent to discount the significance of her husband’s popularity. In 1992, he won support from <a href="http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe1992/federalelections92.pdf">95 percent of voters</a> in the territory’s Democratic primary. Well aware of this, he was sent to Puerto Rico on her behalf while Sanders was campaigning there earlier in May. Her strong performance was therefore <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hillary-clinton-puerto-rico-primary-delegates-223883">widely anticipated</a>.</p>
<p>What was not anticipated was how much Sanders would cut into her margin of victory. The Vermont senator had a limited history with Puerto Rican politics prior to his presidential campaign. But he campaigned aggressively on the island.</p>
<p>Sanders spoke at the University of Puerto Rico – Rio Piedras a few weeks ago, and aired <a href="https://berniesanders.com/press-release/sanders-releases-new-ad-puerto-rico/">television ads</a> on the island. He <a href="http://www.salon.com/2016/05/27/sanders_condemns_pro_austerity_colonial_takeover_of_puerto_rico_clinton_supports_it/">spoke out forcefully</a> about the inadequacy of the debt deal proposed by Congress, and came out with his own detailed plan to address not just the island’s debt, <a href="https://berniesanders.com/issues/puerto-rico/">but the “humanitarian crisis” it was producing</a>. While Sanders still ultimately trailed Clinton by about 20 percentage points, he did better than Obama did in 2008 – who also campaigned aggressively in Puerto Rico and was more widely recognized – and far better than most anticipated.</p>
<p>Puerto Ricans on the island have <a href="http://64.185.222.182/ElecGen2012/LinkedDocuments/Gr%E1fica%20por%20ciento%20de%20participaci%F3n%20electoral%20%281900-2012%29.pdf">a long history</a> of high levels of political engagement. And as they move in droves to the U.S. mainland and obtain the right to formally express their political preferences in both primaries as well as in the general election, their presence will unquestionably be felt. The effectiveness of Rubio, Clinton and Sanders’ thoughtful positions on island politics – beyond simply speaking Spanish and making generic endorsements of the island’s right to self determination – offer a sense of what will attract and engage this growing political force. </p>
<p>Party nominees would be wise to take note.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60501/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mara Ostfeld does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Puerto Ricans can’t vote in the general election, but the way they vote in the primary can predict how well a candidate will do with a key demographic.Mara Ostfeld, Postdoctoral Research Fellow and Lecturer in Public Policy, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.