tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/democrats-1525/articlesDemocrats – The Conversation2024-03-12T12:32:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226802024-03-12T12:32:40Z2024-03-12T12:32:40ZClimate change matters to more and more people – and could be a deciding factor in the 2024 election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581053/original/file-20240311-20-u3utg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young people demonstrate ahead of a climate summit in New York in September 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participants-seen-holding-signs-at-the-protest-ahead-of-the-news-photo/1675097127?adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you ask American voters what their top issues are, <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">most will point</a> to kitchen-table issues like the economy, inflation, crime, health care or education. </p>
<p>Fewer than 5% of respondents in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">2023 and 2024 Gallup surveys</a> said that climate change was the most important problem facing the country. </p>
<p>Despite this, research <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">that I conducted with my colleages</a> suggests that concern about climate change has had a significant effect on voters’ choices in the past two presidential elections. Climate change opinions may even have had a large enough effect to change the 2020 election outcome in President Joe Biden’s favor. This was the conclusion of <a href="https://zenodo.org/records/10494414">an analysis</a> of polling data that we published on Jan. 17, 2024, through the University of Colorado’s <a href="https://cires.colorado.edu/centers/center-social-and-environmental-futures-c-sef">Center for Social and Environmental Futures</a>. </p>
<p>What explains these results, and what effect might climate change have on the 2024 election?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden wears a blue suit and stands on a stage in front of a screen that says 'historic climate action.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Joe Biden speaks about his administration’s work to combat climate change on Nov. 14, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-arrives-to-speak-about-his-news-photo/1782480738?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Measuring climate change’s effect on elections</h2>
<p>We used 2016 and 2020 survey data from the nonpartisan organization <a href="https://www.voterstudygroup.org/data">Voter Study Group</a> to analyze the relationships between thousands of voters’ presidential picks in the past two elections with their demographics and their opinions on 22 different issues, including climate change. </p>
<p>The survey asked voters to rate climate change’s importance with four options: “unimportant,” “not very important,” “somewhat important” or “very important.” </p>
<p>In 2020, 67% of voters rated climate change as “somewhat important” or “very important,” up from 62% in 2016. Of these voters rating climate change as important, 77% supported Biden in 2020, up from 69% who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. This suggests that climate change opinion has been providing the Democrats with a growing electoral advantage. </p>
<p>Using two different statistical models, we estimated that climate change opinion could have shifted the 2020 national popular vote margin (Democratic vote share minus Republican vote share) by 3% or more toward Biden. Using an Electoral College model, we estimated that a 3% shift would have been large enough to change the election outcome in his favor.</p>
<p>These patterns echo the results of a <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">November 2023 poll</a>. This poll found that more voters trust the Democrats’ approach to climate change, compared to Republicans’ approach to the issue.</p>
<h2>What might explain the effect of climate change on voting</h2>
<p>So, if most voters – <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">even Democrats</a> – do not rank climate change as their top issue, how could climate change opinion have tipped the 2020 presidential election? </p>
<p>Our analysis could not answer this question directly, but here are three educated guesses:</p>
<p>First, recent presidential elections have been extremely close. This means that climate change opinion would not need to have a very large effect on voting to change election outcomes. In 2020, Biden <a href="https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020">won Georgia</a> by about 10,000 votes – 0.2% of the votes cast – and he won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, 0.6% of votes cast. </p>
<p>Second, candidates who deny that climate change is real or a problem might turn off some moderate swing voters, even if climate change was not those voters’ top issue. The scientific evidence for climate change being real <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966">is so strong</a> that if a candidate were to deny the basic science of climate change, some moderate voters might wonder whether to trust that candidate in general. </p>
<p>Third, some voters may be starting to see the connections between climate change and the kitchen-table issues that they consider to be higher priorities than climate change. For example, <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">there is strong evidence</a> that climate change affects health, national security, the economy and immigration patterns in the U.S. and around the world. </p>
<h2>Where the candidates stand</h2>
<p>Biden and former President Donald Trump have very different records on climate change and approaches to the environment. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-presidential-candidates-stand-climate-change/story?id=103313379">has previously called</a> climate change a “hoax.”</p>
<p>In 2017, Trump <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/on-the-u-s-withdrawal-from-the-paris-agreement/">withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement</a>, an international treaty that legally commits countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/">Biden reversed</a> that decision in 2021.</p>
<p>While in office, Trump rolled back <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/climate-environment/trump-climate-environment-protections/">125 environmental rules and policies</a> aimed at protecting the country’s air, water, land and wildlife, arguing that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks-list.html">these regulations hurt</a> businesses.</p>
<p>Biden has restored <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-restores-federal-environmental-regulations-scaled-back-by-trump">many of these regulations</a>. He has also added several new rules and regulations, including a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/climate/sec-climate-disclosure-regulations.html">requirement for businesses</a> to publicly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Biden has <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684">also signed</a> <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346">three major</a> laws that <a href="https://rmi.org/climate-innovation-investment-and-industrial-policy/">each provides</a> tens of <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text">billions in annual spending</a> to address climate change. Two of those laws were bipartisan.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the U.S. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">has also become</a> the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, and the largest exporter of natural gas, during Biden’s term.</p>
<p>In the current campaign, Trump has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/second-trump-presidency-would-axe-biden-climate-agenda-gut-energy-regulators-2024-02-16/">promised to eliminate</a> subsidies for renewable energy and electric vehicles, to increase domestic fossil fuel production and to roll back environmental regulations. In practice, some of these efforts <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/20/more-republicans-now-want-climate-action-but-trump-could-derail-everything-00142313">could face opposition</a> from congressional Republicans, in addition to Democrats. </p>
<p>Public <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">opinion varies</a> on particular <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2900823/poll-pennsylvania-voters-reject-biden-lng-pause/">climate policies</a> that <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">Biden has enacted</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, doing something about climate change remains much more popular than doing nothing. For example, a <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-politics-policy-fall-2023/toc/4/">November 2023 Yale survey</a> found 57% of voters would prefer a candidate who supports action on global warming over a candidate who opposes action. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people march and wave banners and flags in front of the US Capitol building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">People march from the U.S. Capitol to the White House protesting former President Donald Trump’s environmental policies in April 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-march-from-the-u-s-capitol-to-the-white-house-for-news-photo/674864930?adppopup=true">Astrid Riecken/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>What this means for 2024</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">Our study</a> found that between the 2016 and the 2020 presidential elections, climate change became increasingly important to voters, and the importance voters assign to climate change became increasingly predictive of voting for the Democrats. If these trends continue, then climate change could provide the Democrats with an even larger electoral advantage in 2024.</p>
<p>Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the Democrats will win the 2024 election. For example, our study estimated that climate change gave the Democrats an advantage in 2016, and yet Trump still won that election because of other issues. Immigration <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx">is currently the top issue</a> for a plurality of voters, and <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/">recent national polls</a> suggest that Trump currently leads the 2024 presidential race over Biden. </p>
<p>Although a majority of voters currently prefer the Democrats’ climate stances, this need not always be true. For example, Democrats <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">risk losing voters</a> when their policies <a href="https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-iron-law-of-climate-policy">impose economic costs</a>, or when they are framed as <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/240725/democrats-positive-socialism-capitalism.aspx">anti-capitalist</a>, <a href="https://osf.io/tdkf3">racial</a>, or <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-we-will-fight-climate-change">overly pessimistic</a>. Some Republican-backed climate policies, <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/press-release/bpc-morning-consult-poll-finds-voters-support-permitting-reform-61-to-13/">like trying to speed up</a> renewable energy projects, are popular.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, if the election were held today, the totality of evidence suggests that most voters would prefer a climate-conscious candidate, and that most climate-conscious voters currently prefer a Democrat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Burgess receives funding from Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the Bruce D. Benson Center for the Study of Western Civilization at the University of Colorado Boulder. </span></em></p>Research shows that climate change had a significant effect on voting choices in the 2016 and 2020 elections – and could also influence the 2024 presidential race.Matt Burgess, Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246062024-03-04T13:35:59Z2024-03-04T13:35:59ZNikki Haley, hanging on through Super Tuesday, says Trump is weak because he’s not getting as many votes as he should − she’s wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579021/original/file-20240229-28-zcbvn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C33%2C5589%2C3709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of GOP candidate Nikki Haley react as former President Donald Trump gives an acceptance speech during a primary election night party on Feb. 24, 2024, in Charleston, S.C. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-n-news-photo/2028796747?adppopup=true">Sean Rayford/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nikki Haley has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/us/politics/haley-not-dropping-out.html">refused to drop out</a> of the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination despite significant losses to Donald Trump in Iowa, New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina. Haley has tried to cast the race in an especially favorable light: As essentially an incumbent, Trump should be near-unanimously supported, but he hasn’t been – so she should keep on fighting. </p>
<p>Haley has made several versions of this argument: </p>
<p>• After finishing third behind Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the Iowa caucuses, Haley saw enough hope to declare the contest a “<a href="https://thehill.com/elections/4411329-haley-iowa-two-person-race-trump-2024/">two-person race</a>” – to incredulous ears. </p>
<p>• After coming in 11 points behind Trump in New Hampshire, an <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/23/nikki-haley-trump-new-hampshire-chance">unusually hospitable</a> state to her in ideology and temperament, a Haley spokesperson characterized Trump’s win as “<a href="https://www.wcvb.com/article/angry-rant-filled-with-grievances-nikki-haleys-campaign-says-of-donald-trumps-new-hampshire-primary-speech/46516280">not exactly a ringing endorsement</a> for a former president.” </p>
<p>• After getting just under 40% of the vote in her home state to Trump’s 60%, Haley again framed the result as more disappointing for Trump than for herself, stressing that “Trump as, technically, the Republican incumbent <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/nikki-haley-argues-trump-40-primary-voters-clue/story?id=107561624">did not win 40%</a> of the vote.”</p>
<p>I’m a political scientist, and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hADRzMwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I have studied</a> Trump’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12414">2016 campaign</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12630">his administration</a> as well as the <a href="https://www.ketv.com/article/uno-political-scientist-discusses-impact-of-desantis-dropping-out-on-presidential-race/46480904">Haley challenge</a>. I don’t buy Haley’s rationale for holding on.</p>
<p>As the two candidates face Super Tuesday, the biggest day of primary voting across the nation, Trump is not the weak candidate Haley would like him to be.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in suits on a stage standing behind individual lecterns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford in a televised presidential debate during the 1976 election. Carter beat Ford and became 39th president.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/james-jimmy-carter-and-gerald-ford-taking-part-in-the-first-news-photo/113494342?adppopup=true">Universal History Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>No comparison</h2>
<p>Haley’s claim that Trump’s early victories reveal some type of weakness hinges on comparing Trump with real incumbents running for reelection, who are indeed usually unopposed within their party. Think <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/democrats-replace-biden.html">the Biden reelection campaign</a> and <a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-republican-nomination/">Trump’s own in 2020</a>.</p>
<p>But this comparison is unreasonable: Trump’s not a real incumbent and should not be compared with one.</p>
<p>To see how well Trump’s doing, an appropriate comparison pits Trump against previous one-term presidents running for a nonconsecutive second term against the incumbents who defeated them – Gerald Ford in 1980 against President Jimmy Carter, Carter in 1984 against President Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush in 1996 against President Bill Clinton.</p>
<p>See what today’s situation has in common with these precedents? </p>
<p>Nothing. They never happened. </p>
<p>And that’s because these former presidents would have had little chance of getting nominated by a party that had moved on after their loss. So they chose not to run at all.</p>
<h2>Lose, then retreat</h2>
<p>Carter never seriously entertained a presidential run in 1984 against Reagan, to whom he had lost in <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1980_Election/">a 44-state landslide</a> in 1980. Even before 1980, observers <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=ziBaAAAAIBAJ&lpg=PA3&dq=jimmy%20carter%201984&pg=PA3#v=onepage&q=jimmy%20carter%201984&f=false">foretold Carter’s loss of support</a> among Democrats in 1984, saying “it is very doubtful the party will give him another shot” if he lost in 1980. After he did lose, Carter <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1982/05/11/us/carter-backs-mondale-for-presidency-in-1984.html">threw his support</a> behind his vice president, Walter Mondale. Against Mondale, Reagan would deliver an even bigger, <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1984_Election/">49-state landslide</a>.</p>
<p>George H.W. Bush in 1996 is a similar story. After losing to Clinton in 1992, he <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/bush/campaigns-and-elections">left office embittered</a> and would not recover politically. It was evidently <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=AUcyAAAAIBAJ&lpg=PA10&dq=george%20hw%20bush%201996&pg=PA10#v=onepage&q=george%20hw%20bush%201996&f=false">someone else’s turn</a> to run for president, as the party moved on to Bob Dole in 1996 and to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/08/04/us/republicans-overview-bush-accepting-gop-nomination-pledges-use-these-good-times.html">Bush’s own son</a>, George W. Bush, just four years later.</p>
<p>Of these might-have, could-have bids for a return to the presidency, Ford’s came closest to reality, partly owing to his <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/gerald-fords-unique-role-in-american-history">unique circumstances</a>. </p>
<p>Ford became president because of Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974. That happened not long after Nixon <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/40-years-ago-gerald-ford-becomes-president-in-a-historic-first">picked Ford to replace</a> Vice President Spiro Agnew, who resigned in 1973. Ford had not had a chance to run on his own terms. In a sense, his 1976 defeat was less conclusive in ending his political life than those of Carter and Bush, making his revival more plausible.</p>
<p>Still, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1978/09/29/stumping-ford-unlikely-to-run-in-80/00b6f0c4-6e1b-415d-a615-2aa4093aa01a/">discouragement</a> from the former president’s own inner circle dampened his flirtations with a 1980 run.</p>
<h2>Wishful thinking?</h2>
<p>The big picture: Voters are generally <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/02/three-time-presidential-candidate-romney-stassen-115000/">unwilling to give</a> a candidate a second chance to run against someone who already defeated them once – a reason that <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/one-way-trump-fighting-history-election-losers-usually-lose-rematch-rcna117883">presidential rematches are so rare</a>.</p>
<p>Trump is proving to be an exception. He lost reelection in 2020, is running again in 2024 against the same president who beat him and is comfortably marching toward nomination a third time in a row. There’s no modern precedent for this, and it attests to his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/us/politics/trump-iowa-win-voters.html">enduring and extraordinary strength</a> within his party. </p>
<p>To be fair, one thing makes Trump’s rationale for a re-run more compelling than Ford in 1980, Carter in 1984 and Bush in 1996: Many Trump supporters <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-think-2020-election-illegitimate/index.html">don’t believe he lost</a> legitimately to Biden in 2020 in the first place, making them think he is somehow deserving of another chance. But that’s precisely part of Trump’s strength.</p>
<p>So, why does Haley talk of Trump’s weakness? </p>
<p>It’s a mix of a few things. She needs to project confidence and justify soldiering on to voters, donors and herself. She’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746">hoping for miracles</a> in upcoming contests. She could be <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2024/02/20/nikki-haleys-long-game-00142314">ambitious for 2028</a> and beyond. </p>
<p>It’s also just wishful thinking.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Huchen Liu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nikki Haley claims Donald Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent and should be doing much better against her than he is. That’s wishful thinking, says a political scientist.Huchen Liu, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Nebraska OmahaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222332024-02-21T13:24:18Z2024-02-21T13:24:18ZYoung people are lukewarm about Biden – and giving them more information doesn’t move the needle much<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576872/original/file-20240220-16-qvln0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young voters in Ann Arbor, Mich., fill out applications to cast their ballot in the midterm elections in November 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/zachary-rose-fills-out-an-application-to-cast-his-ballot-news-photo/1244584443?adppopup=true">Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent polling for the November 2024 election shows that President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters, who have traditionally supported Democrats. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/19/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html">December 2023 poll</a> showed that 49% of young people supported former President Donald Trump, while just 43% of 18- to 29-year-olds said they preferred Biden. </p>
<p>Biden is even struggling with young people who identify as Democrats. A <a href="https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023">Fall 2023 Harvard Kennedy School</a> poll shows that just 62% of Democrats aged 18 to 29 years old said they would vote for Biden in 2024. </p>
<p>Many Democrats are <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4138154-democrats-worry-young-people-souring-on-party/">increasingly anxious</a> that young voters who <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results">supported Biden in 2020</a> will boycott the general election in 2024, support a third-party candidate or <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/24034416/young-voters-biden-trump-gen-z-polling-israel-gaza-economy-2024-election">vote for Trump</a>. </p>
<p>Polls this far from Election Day are <a href="https://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/variable-abs.shtml">notoriously variable</a> and not reliable for predicting election results. Furthermore, some political pundits are asking whether young voters <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/upshot/poll-biden-young-voters.html">will return to the Biden coalition</a> once the campaign season heats up and they learn more about the two candidates. </p>
<p>As scholars of <a href="https://neilobrian.com">public opinion</a> and the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J4Vp11wAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">U.S. presidency</a>, we are deeply interested in the prospect of young voters, particularly Democrats, defecting from the Biden coalition. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young, white woman with brown hair wearing shorts and a beige cardigan walks past a bulletin board with flyers on it for vioting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An Emory University student in Atlanta walks past voting information in October 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/young-woman-walks-past-voting-information-flyers-on-the-news-photo/1244204334?adppopup=true">Elijah Nouvelage/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mixed evidence on young voters’ support for Biden</h2>
<p>About <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/">51% of young voters</a>, aged 18 to 29 years old, identify as Democrats. This compares with 35% of these voters who identify as Republicans. In 2020, young voters in this age group made up an <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020#when-and-how-young-people-voted">estimated 17%</a> of the electorate. </p>
<p>In a close election, securing the youth vote will be paramount in order for Biden to win reelection.</p>
<p>We wanted to understand how young voters might change their election pick preferences if they learn more about different topics, such as the economy, likely to feature in this election season. </p>
<p>We recruited 1,418 respondents from across the country to participate in an online survey experiment in December 2023, including 860 people who identify as Democrats.</p>
<p>In this experiment, we exposed respondents to different messages that the Biden campaign might employ, to see if young Democrats could be persuaded back to Biden.</p>
<p>A quarter of the respondents saw information about how <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-inflation-reduction-climate-anniversary-9950f7e814ac71e89eee3f452ab17f71">inflation and</a> <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-unemployment-jobs-inflation-interest-rates-b1c21252024d697765d047a60f41e900">unemployment decreased</a> during the Biden administration. </p>
<p>Another quarter of respondents were given information about Trump’s norm-violating behavior, such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-capitol-riot-probe-turns-focus-trump-allies-extremist-groups-2022-07-12/">encouraging an insurrection</a> at the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021.</p>
<p>The next quarter of respondents were given information about Biden’s and Trump’s positions on abortion, and whether the U.S. should accept immigrants from the Gaza Strip. </p>
<p>The final group of respondents received no information about a particular topic.</p>
<p>In our research, which has yet to be published, we found mixed evidence that undecided young Democrats would be persuaded to vote for Biden based on any new information we shared with them. </p>
<p>Among the people we polled who were given no information, 66% of 18-year-old to 34-year-old Democrats said they would vote for Biden. This roughly tracks with national polling. </p>
<p>Would learning about the strength of the economy boost Biden’s support? </p>
<p>About 69% of young Democrats who read about dropping inflation and unemployment rates said they would vote for Biden, compared with 31% who said they would vote for Trump or another candidate. This reflects a modest increase in support for Biden, compared to people who had no information on this topic. </p>
<p>We then tested whether providing information to voters about the candidates’ policy positions would change support for Biden. </p>
<p>It is possible that voters are just unaware of the candidates’ positions on issues <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/upshot/kamala-harris-biden-voters-polls.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article">and, after getting more information</a>, will change their views. </p>
<p>We found that 71% of respondents who learned about Biden’s and Trump’s policy positions on abortion and Palestinian refugees from Gaza said they would vote for Biden, compared with the 66% who did not read any new information on these topics before deciding their pick. </p>
<p>Finally, we gave people information about Trump’s norm-violating behavior. This actually marginally decreased support for Biden, dropping from the 66% among people who did not have any of this information given to them in the survey to 63% among people who did. This change, though, lacked what social scientists call statistical significance – meaning that we cannot say this difference is not just attributable to chance alone. </p>
<p>Overall, we found that giving young Democrats access to three different pieces of information generally led to small increases in whether they said they would vote for Biden or not. </p>
<p>Next, we asked respondents “How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in next year’s election?” and how likely they are to vote in the upcoming presidential election. We found that the three different pieces of information each led to a small increase in reported vote intention among young Democrats, but didn’t, on average, increase their enthusiasm about voting. In other words, if young voters feel compelled to vote, they may do so, but without enthusiasm.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Young people sit around a table, and two young people, both wearing white T-shirts, stand near a screen that says 'Canvass training'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abortion rights canvassers gather for a canvass training in Columbus, Ohio, in November 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pro-choice-canvassers-gather-for-a-canvass-training-meeting-news-photo/1766360809?adppopup=true">Megan Jelinger/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The power of persuasion</h2>
<p>Taken together, these results show little movement among young Democrats. This is particularly striking when compared to older Democrats in our sample. </p>
<p>When presented with information about the strength of the economy, the candidates’ divergent policy positions or Trump’s norm-violating behavior, support for Biden among likely voters who were 55 years old or older and identified as Democrats increased from 73% to around 90%.</p>
<p>These results suggest an uphill battle for the Biden campaign to bring back young voters. Young voters, even if they identify as Democrats, are perhaps less attached to a party, or democratic institutions more generally, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/18/democracy-young-people-voters-trump/">than older voters</a>. This means campaign messages about democratic norms might be less persuasive among younger voters. </p>
<p>On the other hand, there are reasons to expect young voters might return to Biden: The economy is doing well, which <a href="https://news.northeastern.edu/2023/11/06/presidential-election-predictions-polls/">tends to help incumbents</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, partisanship, particularly in this polarizing environment, remains a powerful influence, and may still exert a pull on young Democrats over the campaign.</p>
<p>Democrats, after all, successfully ran on an anti-Trump campaign in the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/">2022 midterm elections</a>, <a href="https://morningconsult.com/exit-polling-live-updates/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTTJGbU9EZ3dNalZtTURZMiIsInQiOiJTOTZTRHBrN0lNWG9IVisxUXhEdUdtcUxYaENlS2tIYlJ1YTZyTzhkNjBQM2o0dWVwZlVad3lxaTk1N0FtelwvMkJDOTdsYWtmVDU5eVVDQjhjcjJLUDBocGFaWjRRalVaXC9paTE1dGhzSmxrYWtjUnlXWEk2cVlDc0xPS1FQZ0RPIn0%3D#section-100">2020 general election</a> and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/politics/midterm-elections-results.html">2018 midterm elections</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While young voters say they would be more likely to vote for Biden after they learn more about the economy and other topics, they did not appear affected by Donald Trump’s norm-defying behavior.Neil O'Brian, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of OregonChandler James, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226872024-02-07T13:10:10Z2024-02-07T13:10:10ZSuper Bowl party foods can deliver political bite – choose wisely<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573873/original/file-20240206-26-r38qeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C8%2C5946%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If you are what you eat, what does that mean for your politics?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/super-bowl-or-football-theme-food-table-scene-royalty-free-image/1455050837">jenifoto/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Conservative outrage over the presence of a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/us/politics/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-trump.html">female pop star at professional football games</a> is a sign of how many parts of American life and culture have taken on a partisan political flavor. </p>
<p>Partisanship doesn’t just apply to opinions about the dating lives of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Food, too, is another aspect of the latest set of not-quite-political conflicts – including beverage brands and main courses. What you serve at your Super Bowl party, or what the host serves at the event you attend, can now be interpreted, or twisted, through a partisan lens.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dCficcgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">public</a>-<a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=da4Qi64AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">opinion</a> research shows that <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-power-of-partisanship-9780197623794?lang=en&cc=us">almost nothing today is free of partisanship</a> – whether the item in question has anything to do with government action, political ideology or public policy, or not. At times, the issues that erupt into political skirmishes are the result of fanciful conspiratorial thinking, blatant misinformation or just the personal preferences of political leaders.</p>
<p>We have found that these developments, in which polarization invades parts of Americans’ lives that really aren’t political, deepen existing divides in society. These conflicts also make it harder to have fun in mixed political company, and harder to steer clear of accidentally offending someone at your Super Bowl party.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign reads 'Bud Light' with the logo of Super Bowl LVIII." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573819/original/file-20240206-22-o7l407.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s an official sponsor of the Super Bowl, but Bud Light has been part of political controversy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/inbev-bud-light-beer-signage-is-displayed-at-the-911-taco-news-photo/1973661925">Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An eye on Bud Light</h2>
<p>Bud Light has long been one of the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/07/rise-and-fall-bud-light-boycott/674752/">nation’s most popular beers</a>. Politics has changed that.</p>
<p>In April 2023, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/bud-light-boycott.html">transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney</a> posted a video to Instagram promoting a Bud Light contest. The anti-trans backlash was swift, with calls for boycotts of the beer coming from Republicans, including <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3992837-trump-weighs-in-on-bud-light-controversy-time-to-beat-the-radical-left-at-their-own-game/">former President Donald Trump</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/money/2023/4/12/23680135/bud-light-boycott-dylan-mulvaney-travis-tritt-trans">U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee</a> and <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/food-culture/article/bud-light-boycott-dan-crenshaw-karbach-houston-17888207.php">U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw of Texas</a>. </p>
<p>By June 2023, Bud Light was <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/bud-light-dethroned-top-selling-beer-sales-modelo-america-boycott-1804728">no longer the nation’s best-selling beer</a>, falling behind Modelo Especial. The company that makes Bud Light, Anheuser-Busch, saw a 10% drop in revenue in the second quarter of 2023, which it <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/bud-light-boycott.html">attributed primarily to the conservative objections</a> to a trans person being associated with the brand. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A ladle holds some chili above a simmering pot full of food." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573826/original/file-20240206-17-yz9iwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Would you like this dish less if you knew Barack Obama liked it?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/steak-chili-with-black-beans-royalty-free-image/1835909830">LauriPatterson/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Making the nonpolitical political</h2>
<p>In our book, “<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-power-of-partisanship-9780197623794?lang=en&cc=us">The Power of Partisanship</a>,” we document that partisanship – psychological attachments to one of the two major political parties – in America has drastically increased since the 1950s.</p>
<p>We have found that more Americans identify as strong partisans than ever. We have also found that people’s political preferences are increasingly driven by negative emotions about the other party.</p>
<p>As a result of this increased partisanship, political leaders have more power than ever to introduce new issues and ideas into the public discussion, and use them divisively – even topics that have nothing to do with politics. And leaders’ views affect those of the public.</p>
<p>We found that this partisan phenomenon extends to food. For instance, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/02/23/trump-meatloaf-mania-moos-pkg-erin.cnn">Donald Trump likes meatloaf</a> and <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/obamas-chili-recipe_n_89826">Barack Obama likes chili</a>. We surveyed people and asked them about their political views and their food preferences. Some of them we told of Trump’s and Obama’s preferences, and some we did not.</p>
<p>Democrats whom we told that Trump likes meatloaf rated that dish significantly lower than Democrats whom we had not told of his preference. Likewise, Republicans we told about Obama’s preference for chili rated it less favorably than Republicans from whom we kept that information.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sliced meatloaf on a platter." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573829/original/file-20240206-29-wvuls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Would you like this meal less if you knew Donald Trump liked it?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/homemade-savory-spiced-meatloaf-royalty-free-image/830989066">bhofack2/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Menu planning</h2>
<p>So, when it comes to planning your menu, our research offers some advice.</p>
<p>For a party of Democrats, chili – possibly with an <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/03/arugula-rocks-come-at-me-spinach/585571/">arugula salad</a> on the side – is a safe bet. But meatloaf would be a better choice for a party of Republicans. You could reinforce those choices by accompanying the dishes with photos of the politicians with their favorite dishes.</p>
<p>Other foods also divide Americans. Consider <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/546704-rand-paul-calls-for-republicans-to-boycott-coca-cola/">steering clear of Coca-Cola if you are having Republicans over</a>: The company criticized Georgia’s 2021 law that shortened early voting and made it more difficult to vote by mail.</p>
<p>If you order takeout, some <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2019/5/29/18644354/chick-fil-a-anti-gay-donations-homophobia-dan-cathy">Democrats might be reluctant to eat Chick-fil-A</a> because of company leaders’ past opposition to LGBTQ rights and marriage equality. But more recently, it’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/5/31/23742373/chick-fil-a-boycott-controversy-conservative-backlash">Republicans who have criticized</a> the fast-food chain for hiring an executive focused on diversity, equity and inclusion – and for shifting the company’s donations <a href="https://www.today.com/food/essay/gay-chick-fil-a-customers-rcna91009">to be less political</a>.</p>
<p>In general, we recommend doing a quick online search to make sure you are up on your social network’s preferences of the day. That’s the best way, though not guaranteed, to avoid serving up something that has recently become politicized by partisan media or party elites. </p>
<p>You might not be up for that much work. Or perhaps you are one of the few Americans left with friends who <a href="http://www.wpsanet.org/papers/docs/Butters_Avoid.pdf">identify with both political parties</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A foil pan of a dish covered in cheese." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573832/original/file-20240206-18-uc0i46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A safe bet: People of all partisan stripes like lasagna.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/lasagna-convenience-meal-royalty-free-image/178828120">JoeGough/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In that case, based on the research in our book, we suggest serving salmon or lasagna. Both are foods that appear to be resistant to partisan cues and are well-liked by members of both parties. Or maybe just throw a potluck, hope for the best, and you may even learn something new about your guests’ political views. Perhaps your guests will rise above partisanship and just enjoy the event.</p>
<p>The old advice to avoid talking about politics and religion in mixed company is evolving. For Americans, almost anything can be political now – from what’s on the table to what’s in the dresser or closet, and even what music we’re listening to.</p>
<p>When elites take positions, partisans follow their leaders. That means every cultural gathering, from the Thanksgiving table to the Super Bowl couch, can be invaded by political conflict. We don’t know about you, but we just want to watch the game.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222687/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz is a fellow at the Brown Policy Lab and has received funding for research projects from the USDA, the Russell Sage Foundation, and other organizations. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua J. Dyck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polarization invades parts of Americans’ lives that really aren’t political, dividing society more deeply. That includes decisions about whether or not they like meatloaf or chili.Joshua J. Dyck, Professor & Chair of Political Science; Director of the Center for Public Opinion, UMass LowellShanna Pearson-Merkowitz, Professor of Public Policy and Saul L. Stern Professor of Civic Engagement, University of MarylandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194952024-01-31T19:09:33Z2024-01-31T19:09:33ZWill abortion be the issue that swings the 2024 US presidential election?<p>Abortion is shaping up to be a central issue for both parties in the 2024 US presidential and Congressional elections.</p>
<p>Nearly two years ago, the US Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade decision, finding there was no constitutional right to abortion and returning regulation to the states.</p>
<p>Since that decision (a case known as Dobbs v. Jackson), <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/us/abortion-laws-roe-v-wade.html">14 states</a> now ban abortion in almost all circumstances and ten have imposed restrictions, some of which have been blocked by the courts. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/abortion-dobbs-anniversary-state-laws-51c2a83899f133556e715342abfcface">One in three</a> women of reproductive age now live in states that have either banned or restricted abortion.</p>
<p>Abortion remains legal and protected in 26 states, plus the District of Columbia. </p>
<p>For decades, abortion has been central to partisan politics in the United States. Republicans made opposition to abortion a core part of their identity and voter mobilisation strategies. They pumped out so-called “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/12/us/politics/house-republicans-abortion-ban.html">messaging bills</a>” (dramatic legislation with little chance of passing or being upheld, such as the <a href="https://www.paul.senate.gov/news-sen-rand-paul-introduces-life-conception-act/">Life At Conception bill</a>), while <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-030-01707-1.pdf">pledging</a> to end Roe v Wade.</p>
<p>Yet, abortion was not a make-or-break electoral cause. In 2018, sociologist <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-au/Abortion+Politics-p-9780745688787">Ziad Munson</a> concluded</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] for the vast majority of the public, abortion is simply not a key issue they consider when deciding their vote.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Most Americans still support abortion rights</h2>
<p>Dobbs v. Jackson, however, transformed the political landscape. Support for abortion is now at a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/506759/broader-support-abortion-rights-continues-post-dobbs.aspx">record high</a> among Americans, with 69% believing abortion should be legal in the first three months of pregnancy and 61% believing that overturning Roe v. Wade was a “bad thing”. </p>
<p>Women and young people have <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/9/4/23333329/roe-voter-registration-dobbs-midterms-democrats">rushed</a> to register as new voters. And 21% of registered voters describe abortion as the issue they would be <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/abortion-was-always-going-to-impact-the-midterms/">unwilling to compromise on</a>, a sentiment most pronounced among Democrats and independents. </p>
<p>In the 2022 midterm elections in the US, voter anger over Dobbs v. Jackson was <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/25/1139040227/abortion-midterm-elections-2022-republicans-democrats-roe-dobbs">widely</a> <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/abortion-was-always-going-to-impact-the-midterms/">credited</a> with stopping the expected “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/09/abortion-votes-2022-election-results-00065983">red wave</a>” in Congress and state races, even as President Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/12/14/assessments-of-joe-biden/pp_2023-12-14_gop_2-01/">approval rating</a> hovered around 40%. </p>
<p>Abortion was also central to Democrats <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/20/democrats-virginia-abortion-strategy-roe-v-wade-2024-election">gaining control</a> of the Virginia state legislature in 2023.</p>
<p>Seven states have voted on abortion referendums since the Dobbs v. Jackson decision. All were <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/09/abortion-rights-elections-red-states-00126225">decisive victories for reproductive rights</a>, including in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/07/ohio-issue-1-election-results/">traditionally red</a> states such as Kansas, Kentucky and Ohio. In Ohio, one in five Republicans voted to constitutionally <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/17/ohio-abortion-rights-republicans-overturn">protect</a> abortion access in the state.</p>
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<h2>Democrats have an issue to rally support</h2>
<p>All of this points to abortion being a major issue in the presidential election later this year.</p>
<p>Biden, a practising Catholic, is an unlikely pro-choice ally. In 1973, he believed the Supreme Court went “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/us/politics/biden-abortion-rights.html">too far</a>” in the Roe v. Wade decision. During his decades in the Senate, his views <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/biden-s-long-evolution-abortion-rights-still-holds-surprises-n1013846">evolved</a> and he now believes Roe v. Wade “<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-abortion-catholic-faith-roe-v-wade-got-it-right/">got it right</a>.”</p>
<p>Initially, the Biden administration was slow to respond to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-would-amy-coney-barrett-trumps-pick-for-the-supreme-court-mean-for-abortion-rights-in-the-us-146931">palpable threat</a> to reproductive rights in the lead-up to Dobbs v. Jackson. It took Biden <a href="https://didbidensayabortionyet.org/">468 days</a> to publicly say the word abortion as president, and he still <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/22/biden-abortion-2024-campaign-reelection-00103158">rarely</a> uses the term. </p>
<p>After Dobbs v. Jackson, however, both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris became assertive in defence of abortion rights. Legislatively hamstrung, the administration used the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/01/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-sign-presidential-memorandum-on-ensuring-safe-access-to-medication-abortion/">Food and Drug Administration</a>, the <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/attorney-general-merrick-b-garland-statement-supreme-court-ruling-dobbs-v-jackson-women-s">Justice Department</a>, and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/06/23/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-highlights-commitment-to-defending-reproductive-rights-and-actions-to-protect-access-to-reproductive-health-care-one-year-after-overturning-of-roe-v-wade/">executive orders</a> to try to protect and expand access to abortion and contraception across the country.</p>
<p>And abortion will be “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/22/biden-abortion-2024-campaign-reelection-00103158">front and centre</a>” for Democrats in the 2024 elections.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/08/us/politics/abortion-ads-democrats-election.html">advertisements</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGnc8JkaUII">Senate briefings</a>, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/04/25/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-a-political-event-on-reproductive-rights/">campaign events</a>, and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-harris-begin-abortion-rights-campaign-roe-v-wade-anniversary-2024-01-18/">television appearances</a>, Democrats emphasise the suffering caused by what they call “<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/bidens-campaign-pushes-abortion-rights-2024-battle-republicans-106483145">draconian</a>” Republican abortion bans and the advocacy work of doctors and reproductive rights groups.</p>
<p>To drive home the point, the Biden-Harris team made their first joint campaign appearance of the year in late January at a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/23/politics/biden-harris-abortion-rights/index.html">reproductive rights rally</a> in Virginia, a day after what would have been the 51st anniversary of the Roe v. Wade decision. </p>
<h2>For Republicans, it’s complicated</h2>
<p>Dobbs v. Jackson was the fulfilment of a Republican promise decades in the making. Publicly, Republicans celebrated. Privately, some believed the party was “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/25/the-dog-that-caught-the-car-republicans-brace-for-the-impact-of-reversing-roe-00042387">the dog that caught the car</a>”.</p>
<p>Anti-abortionists have always viewed overturning Roe v. Wade as merely a first step, with the ultimate goal being an end to legal abortion nationwide. Since Dobbs v. Jackson, anti-abortion groups have pushed for: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/20/us/politics/trump-abortion-susan-b-anthony.html">federal abortion ban at 15 weeks and beyond</a> </p></li>
<li><p>state bills to outlaw <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/14/medicated-abortions-drugs-students-for-life/">abortion-inducing drugs</a> (now the most common type of abortion method) </p></li>
<li><p>“<a href="https://time.com/6191886/fetal-personhood-laws-roe-abortion/">foetal personhood</a>” laws that would extend legal rights to foetuses or embryos from the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/21/us/abortion-anti-fetus-person.html">moment of fertilisation</a>, with likely consequences for in vitro fertilisation and some forms of contraception.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Since the Republican primary campaigns began last year, however, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iowa-republicans-presidential-candidates-abortion-55dd7067d626c4add1f1270c03e33655">the silence among prospective candidates</a> has been striking. </p>
<p>Most presidential aspirants have preferred to talk generically about “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/11/16/1213006071/republican-candidates-abortion-rights">protecting life</a>.” Nikki Haley, the only candidate remaining to challenge frontrunner Donald Trump, has spoken vaguely of the need for “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/23/haley-abortion-new-hampshire/">consensus</a>” on abortion at the federal level.</p>
<p>As for Trump, he ran <a href="https://democrats.org/news/donald-trump-brags-about-his-role-in-overturning-roe-in-new-ads/">Facebook advertisements</a> before the Iowa caucuses last month calling himself “THE MOST Pro-Life President in history.” Yet, simultaneously, Trump is positioning himself as an abortion <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-abortion-moderate-run-2024-election-1234893936/">moderate</a>. </p>
<p>Trump’s cynical about-face should come as no surprise. In 1999, Trump claimed to be “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/trump-in-1999-i-am-very-pro-choice-480297539914">very pro-choice</a>.” By the 2016 Republican primaries, he had become much more <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/10/20/rip-the-baby-out-of-the-womb-what-donald-trump-got-wrong-about-abortion-in-america/">extreme</a> and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/30/politics/donald-trump-abortion-town-hall/index.html">controversial</a> in his rhetorical opposition to abortion.</p>
<p>Trump has repeatedly dodged questions about whether he supports a federal law, refusing to support the idea of a 15-week ban <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66003915">championed</a> by his former vice president, Mike Pence. </p>
<p>In September, he described Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ signing of a six-week abortion ban in his state as “<a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-labels-desantis-abortion-ban-a-terrible-mistake-riling-some-republicans">a terrible thing and a terrible mistake</a>.” Then, in January, Trump told a Fox News town hall audience that on abortion, “there has to be a little bit of a <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/01/donald-trump-abortion-bans-fox-news-town-hall.html">concession</a>.”</p>
<p>Initially, anti-abortion activists condemned Trump, even picketing one of his Miami rallies with signs declaring “<a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/anti-abortion-activists-protest-donald-trump-rally-florida-1234873608/">Make Trump Pro-Life Again</a>”. However, with Trump widely expected to be the Republican candidate, these groups are now <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/05/trump-abortion/">falling in line</a>. Ultimately, they need him far more than he needs them.</p>
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<p>The new Republican timidity about abortion does not mean that conservatives have had a fundamental change of heart. As Trump put it, “<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-boasts-role-ending-roe-wade-abortion-regulations/story?id=106280890">you got to win elections</a>.” If they win the presidency and majorities in both houses of Congress in November, Republicans will most likely continue their assault on abortion and reproductive rights.</p>
<p>In January, Biden’s job approval rating hit <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-tops-opponents-biden-hits-new-low-approval/story?id=106335244">record lows</a> at a time of historic inflation levels. Even though abortion has been political poison for Republicans, it <a href="https://time.com/6561898/donald-trump-voters-2024/">may not be enough</a> to help Democrats hold onto the White House.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Prudence Flowers has received funding from the South Australian Department of Human Services. She is a member of the South Australian Abortion Action Coalition. </span></em></p>Democrats now have an issue to mobilise voters. For Republicans, however, it’s more complicated.Prudence Flowers, Senior Lecturer in US History, College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215522024-01-26T13:28:37Z2024-01-26T13:28:37ZJoe Biden could still stand down before the election – here’s how and what would happen next<p>When Joe Biden took the oath of office in January 2021, many expected him to be the <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/01/the-placeholder-president/">“placeholder president”</a>. His mandate: heal the country’s wounds after four turbulent years of Donald Trump. Don’t try to be a transformative figure. Then hand the reins to a capable successor.</p>
<p>Fast forward to 2024 and there’s room for debate about the merits (and demerits) of Biden’s first-term legacy. But it’s Biden’s decision to run for re-election that’s become the <a href="https://www.persuasion.community/p/biden-should-not-run-in-2024">major flashpoint</a> for Democrats.</p>
<p><a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">Polling</a> collated by US political website FiveThirtyEight shows Biden with a dismal sub-40% approval rating. Former president Trump, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-as-the-first-republican-primary-looms-a-trump-win-looks-inevitable-but-who-comes-second-matters-218473">“inevitable”</a> Republican nominee who has all punched his ticket to the general election with primary victories in <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-iowa-caucus-haley-desantis-cold-voting-begins-0af10f1ba21d488af54776b2c8d4028c">Iowa</a> and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/de864afd-03c6-41a4-9d05-c32eef96598b">New Hampshire</a>, has jumped into the lead in a head-to-head match against Biden in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html">almost every swing state</a>.</p>
<p>Many allies privately, and publicly, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/12/biden-trump-election-step-aside/">worry</a> that Biden is at risk not only of overstaying his welcome, but of passing the baton to his twice-impeached rival that Biden himself pillories as an <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/09/29/biden-warns-that-trumps-movement-is-a-threat-to-democracy-in-the-us">existential threat to democracy</a>.</p>
<p>Is it too late for Biden to bow out in 2024? Technically, no. Biden could, for any reason, declare that he’s no longer seeking a second term.</p>
<p>If he did it before March, there would still be (some) time for other Democrats to get their name on many primary ballots, although deadlines for more than <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/biden-trump-suddenly-leaves-2024-race/story?id=106136493">30 states (amounting to roughly two-thirds of delegates)</a> have already passed.</p>
<p>If it didn’t happen by then, his successor would be determined in a high-stakes <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-have-no-biden-backup-plan-2024-despite-age-concerns-2023-11-30/">fracas at the party’s convention</a> scheduled for late August. Unless the Democrat party changed the rules, delegates pledged to Biden would enter the convention “uncommitted,” and so would lobby, and ultimately vote, on a replacement.</p>
<p>Practically, however, the odds of Biden changing course now look small. The two main reasons for pressing ahead haven’t changed since Biden announced his reelection bid last April. First, Biden is the only candidate who’s proven that he can beat Trump. Second, there’s no obvious heir apparent.</p>
<h2>The only one who can beat Trump?</h2>
<p>Biden has said explicitly <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-election-boston-fundraisers-los-angeles-82caceab4df5ba3ee3112a8991a24fea">said</a> that “[Trump] is running so I have to run”. Although he <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-says-not-only-one-can-defeat-trump-rcna128439">says</a> he’s not the only one who could topple Trump, Biden clearly feels that he has a significant upper hand. For one thing, he’s already proven he can do it.</p>
<p>There’s a reason why Biden earned the Democrat nomination in 2020. Biden’s blue-collar roots, resonance with moderate voters, and an ability to sell himself as the most “electable” Democrat ultimately gave him a come-from-behind win in those primaries.</p>
<p>In that general election, Democrats’ faith in him paid off. Biden <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/graphics/2020/11/19/the-counties-that-flipped-their-states-for-biden/3767693001/">tipped key swing states</a>, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania — all of which had gone for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.</p>
<p>Unlike in a typical election, 2024 is likely to be more a <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/desantis-says-nominating-trump-would-make-2024-a-referendum-on-the-ex-president-rather-than-biden/">referendum on Trump</a> than about the incumbent in the Oval Office. Biden is betting voters will prefer the devil they know. “Don’t compare me to the Almighty,” <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/04/30/remarks-by-president-biden-at-the-white-house-correspondents-dinner/">he says</a>. “Compare me to the alternative”.</p>
<h2>No heir apparent</h2>
<p>The Democrats also don’t have a deep-bench of obvious successors. Biden sees himself as sparing the party from what would otherwise be a brutal nomination fight.</p>
<p>Whereas Trump has cruised to a commanding lead in the Republican primaries and squashed challenger and former governor of South Carolina, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/01/23/trump-haley-new-hampshire-primary-election/">Nikki Haley</a>, a contested Democrat primary would be punishing. The candidate who emerged would be battle-tested, but potentially too busy nursing wounds to pivot into the general election.</p>
<p>Four years ago, many envisioned the current vice president, Kamala Harris, as Biden’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/03/kamala-harris-vice-president-role-biden">natural heir</a>. Few say that now. If Biden’s poll numbers have disappointed, Harris’s have been a <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-popularity-problem-poll-2024-1809210">catastrophe</a>. Her <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/">recent approvals</a>, at 37%, are the lowest of any first-term VP <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-approval-rating-2024-problem-1853029">since Dan Quayle in the early 1990s</a>.</p>
<p>Other <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-more-years-joe-biden-and-other-democratic-hopefuls-for-the-2024-presidential-nomination-194840">familiar</a> names who ran in 2020 — like US transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg or Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar — could step in for Biden. But it’s not happenstance they lost to Biden in 2020. No one was able to unite Democrat moderates and progressives, much less win over Republicans and swing voters.</p>
<p>Some think California governor Gavin Newsom is already running a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1b838c83-bb9e-4e4b-8301-d19a95feb946">“shadow campaign”</a> for the White House, while Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer is also <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/06/gretchen-whitmer-media-spotlight/674480/">“happy to be interrogated”</a> about a presidential bid. Yet many see Newsom as “too Hollywood,” while Whitmer hasn’t been vetted on a national stage.</p>
<p>New York representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, too, has been rumoured as a <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4194745-the-memo-five-democratic-alternatives-if-president-biden-exits-the-2024-race/">potential fill-in for Biden</a>. But a hard, populist leftist, without the cross-over appeal of left-wing Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, would almost certainly guarantee a Trump victory.</p>
<p>Experts have also speculated about the possibility of a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=He4ZdXfIgso%22%22">“saviour”</a> parachuting into the Democrat Convention, such as former first lady <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/10/2024-election-barack-obama-michelle-joe-biden-us-politics/">Michelle Obama</a> or even legendary TV personality <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/oprah-winfrey-mitt-romney-president-2020-trump-campaign/">Oprah Winfrey</a>. This seems more like the stuff of liberal fantasies.</p>
<h2>No turning back</h2>
<p>Biden had plenty of opportunities to gracefully ride into the sunset. He could have said that he’d accomplished everything he set out to accomplish. He could have cited his desire for a rising generation to be represented in politics.</p>
<p>Now, it seems, there’s no turning back. Eleven months from now, we’ll know if Biden made the strategically right decision. But if he misfires, it likely will be several years until we know the full effects of that choice.</p>
<p>A Trump sequel promises, at best, volatility and serious tests to US democratic norms and institutions. At worst, it promises a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/11/donald-trump-president-2024-biden-poll">“revenge term”</a> — the full-blown manifestation of the ugly underbelly that manifested itself on January 6 in the attack on <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/January-6-U-S-Capitol-attack">the US Capitol</a>.</p>
<p>With no back-up plan for exiting, Biden’s legacy, win or lose, will invariably be tied to whether he refused to be the “placeholder president”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221552/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Gift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If Biden decided not to stand again, another Democratic candidate could still be selected until the party’s convention.Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219322024-01-25T16:12:29Z2024-01-25T16:12:29ZTwo charts that reveal a key weakness in Trump’s reelection bid<p>Donald Trump’s win in New Hampshire’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/23/trump-wins-new-hampshire-primary">Republican primary</a> on January 23, a week after his decisive victory in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-2024-trump-victory-in-iowa-caucus-not-as-big-as-he-may-have-hoped-heres-why-biden-still-wants-him-to-get-gop-nomination-221257">Iowa caucuses</a>, means that he is almost certain to be the Republican nominee for the US presidential election in November 2024. All US presidential elections are different, but a renewed contest between Joe Biden and Trump is rather unusual.</p>
<p>It is rare for the same candidates to be nominated by their parties to run on two separate occasions. The last time it happened was in <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1956">1956</a>, when the Republican president, Dwight Eisenhower, defeated Democrat Adlai Stevenson for the second time in a row.</p>
<p>American politics is currently very <a href="http://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/%7Ejcampbel/documents/LaymanCarseyReview2006.pdf">polarised</a> in a way that was not true in the past. One source of this division is political ideology, which <a href="https://jspp.psychopen.eu/index.php/jspp/article/view/5147/5147.html">research</a> shows plays a central role in defining people’s political identities.</p>
<p>A large proportion of Americans identify themselves as liberals or conservatives. People look favourably on those who share their ideological views, regarding them as “insiders”, while at the same time looking unfavourably on “outsiders” in the opposite camp.</p>
<p>The 2020 and 2024 elections have a lot in common, so we can use data from the 2020 <a href="https://electionstudies.org/data-center/2020-time-series-study/">American National Election Study</a> to explore the likely role ideology will play in the contest in November.</p>
<h2>Ideological appeal</h2>
<p>The 2020 study surveyed more than 8,000 Americans both before and after the election. Respondents were asked a variety of questions about their participation in politics, their attitudes to issues and candidates, and their voting behaviour.</p>
<p>One question asked respondents to identify the ideological group they thought they belonged to using a seven-point scale. The scale, shown in the chart below, varies from “extreme liberal” to “extreme conservative” with a midpoint category of “moderate, middle-of-the-road” voters.</p>
<p><strong>Voting and political ideology in the 2020 US presidential election</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571240/original/file-20240124-15-2orboz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart showing the relationship between political ideology and voting for Joe Biden and Donald Trump." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571240/original/file-20240124-15-2orboz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571240/original/file-20240124-15-2orboz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571240/original/file-20240124-15-2orboz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571240/original/file-20240124-15-2orboz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571240/original/file-20240124-15-2orboz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571240/original/file-20240124-15-2orboz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571240/original/file-20240124-15-2orboz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There was a strong relationship between ideology and voting for the two candidates in the 2020 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://electionstudies.org/data-center/2020-time-series-study/">American National Election Study (2020)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The chart identifies the relationship between ideology and voting for the two candidates. The relationship was very strong, with 95% of extreme liberals voting for Biden, and 98% of extreme conservatives voting for Trump. </p>
<p>If we combine the three categories of liberal, this consisted of 33% of all respondents. If we do the same for conservatives, it made up 40%. The middle-of-the-roaders comprised 27%.</p>
<p>At first sight, it looks like Trump had a clear advantage over his rival because there were more conservatives than liberals. Why, then, did Biden win the contest? Because he was supported by 94% of all liberals, whereas Trump was supported by 84% of conservatives. </p>
<p>What let Trump down was the fact that only 31% of moderates and 65% of the “slightly conservative” group supported him. In contrast, Biden took 92% of the “slightly liberal” respondents and 63% of the middle-of-the-roaders.</p>
<p>Clearly, Biden’s ideological appeal was significantly broader than Trump’s in the contest. This suggests that, while Trump’s abusive “take no prisoners” style of campaigning – employed against both Democrat and Republican rivals – is very popular among strong conservatives, it tends to alienate moderates, liberals, and about a third of the slightly conservative voters.</p>
<p>There was <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ec5f680d-01e8-4170-914b-28c0e08b3aee">evidence of this</a> in the New Hampshire primary results. Trump dominated among registered Republicans, but underperformed among voters who weren’t loyal supporters. In other words, his support base is very loyal but limited in size. </p>
<h2>Partisanship</h2>
<p>Another important source of political identity in American politics, which also has a very strong influence on voting, is partisanship – the extent to which people think of themselves as Republicans, Democrats or independents. In the 2020 study, 46% of respondents identified with the Democrats, 42% with the Republicans, and 12% with the independents. The second chart shows how this related to voting behaviour in the 2020 election.</p>
<p><strong>Voting and partisanship in the 2020 US presidential election</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571241/original/file-20240124-27-50h0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart showing how partisanship related to voting behaviour in the 2020 US election." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571241/original/file-20240124-27-50h0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571241/original/file-20240124-27-50h0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571241/original/file-20240124-27-50h0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571241/original/file-20240124-27-50h0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571241/original/file-20240124-27-50h0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571241/original/file-20240124-27-50h0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571241/original/file-20240124-27-50h0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A higher proportion of people who think of themselves as Democrats voted for Biden than Republicans voted for Trump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://electionstudies.org/data-center/2020-time-series-study/">American National Election Study (2020)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Partisanship was measured using another seven-point scale. If we group together all three categories of Democrat, Biden was supported by 95% of them in the 2020 election. In contrast, Trump was supported by only 87% of those who identified as Republican. </p>
<p>In the case of “independent-Democrats”, 94% of them voted for Biden, whereas only 78% of “independent-Republicans” voted for Trump. As regards the pure independents, 52% opted for Biden and only 31% for Trump. Once again, Biden’s appeal was much broader than Trump’s.</p>
<h2>What could this mean?</h2>
<p>These two political identities (ideology and partisanship) tell a similar story because they are strongly related to each other. Attacks on opponents within his own party, as well as on Democrats, mobilises Trump’s ideological and partisan base, but at the cost of alienating moderates and independents.</p>
<p>This will probably happen again in November 2024, and we can be fairly sure about its effects. Questions in the survey asked respondents to give a “likeability” score to each candidate, rated on a 100-point scale where zero meant they “intensely disliked” a candidate and 100 meant they “intensely liked” them. </p>
<p>In the case of Biden, 21% gave him a score of zero and 10% a score of 100, with an average of 48. For Trump, 39% gave him zero and 15% rated him 100, with an average of 41. It turns out that likeability is strongly associated with voting for a candidate.</p>
<p>Trump appears to have a vociferous group of loyal supporters who intend to vote for him regardless of his legal problems or bad publicity. But there is a relatively silent group more than twice as large that will never vote for him under any circumstances.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221932/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC. </span></em></p>Trump stormed to victory in New Hampshire’s Republican primary – but his biggest challenge will be winning over independent voters.Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201742024-01-16T13:25:01Z2024-01-16T13:25:01Z1 good thing about the Iowa caucuses, and 3 that are really troubling<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568921/original/file-20240111-19-ds4fma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=112%2C49%2C2238%2C1515&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump appears at a Fox News town hall in Des Moines, Iowa on Jan. 10, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-president-donald-news-photo/1923679596?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every four years, the Iowa caucuses find new ways to become a problematic part of the presidential nomination process. Democrats have abandoned the Iowa-first tradition, at least for 2024, but Republicans went full speed ahead with the caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024.</p>
<p>If they were being honest, most politicians and political experts who are not from Iowa – and not planning to curry favor with Iowans someday – would concede that this caucus-first system is <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-caucuses-predict-president-history/story?id=106131420">far from the best way</a> to start to select a presidential nominee, especially considering the low voter turnout in an overwhelmingly white state. But changing old, familiar processes is never easy, particularly during these highly contentious times. </p>
<p>Even so, candidates who talk about the traditional first caucus state sometimes make a political misstep by being honest. </p>
<p>Earlier this month, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/04/us/politics/iowa-new-hampshire-primary-haley.html">Republican candidate Nikki Haley</a> dissed Iowa, telling a New Hampshire audience that their state primary that occurs after the Iowa caucuses would correct the mistakes made in Iowa. “You know Iowa starts it,” she said. “You know that you correct it.”</p>
<p>That’s the sort of thing a candidate trying to do well in Iowa says after the caucuses – not before.</p>
<p>With such honesty, it’s not surprising that former President <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/iowa/republican-presidential-primary">Donald Trump</a> earned 51% of the vote while GOP rivals Ron DeSantis could muster only 21% and Nikki Haley 19%. Further helping Trump was the shrinking field of GOP candidates that saw former Vice President <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mike-pence-2024-president-campaign-republican-trump-0ec44fc2a5b8683f34883e0ea72b2ab2">Mike Pence</a>, former New Jersey Gov. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/chris-christie-drops-2024-presidential-race-rcna127993">Chris Christie</a> and U.S. Senator <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/sen-tim-scott-drops-out-of-2024-presidential-race-shocking-donors-and-campaign-staff">Tim Scott</a> of South Carolina all drop out before the caucuses.</p>
<h2>Iowa’s upside for long-shot candidates</h2>
<p>Iowans, as well as residents of the traditional <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-hampshire-primary-date-2024-elections-first-in-the-nation-democrats/">first primary state of New Hampshire</a>, try to argue that their <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/10/27/iowa-poll-most-iowans-think-iowa-caucuses-should-remain-first/69561842007/">small-state selection processes</a> represent some of the last vestiges of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1957/12/norman-rockwells-america/640584/">Norman Rockwell’s America</a>, where deliberate, sober voters offer a grateful nation the carefully considered <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/new-hampshire-primary-president-joe-biden-gov-chris-sununu/">assessments of candidates</a> that come from community meetings too numerous to count. </p>
<p>That part of the argument is largely true – caucusgoers and voters in both states seem to take the process of evaluating potential presidents <a href="https://wcfcourier.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/iowans-take-voting-seriously/article_117b21cf-afa2-53f7-a996-e89976f136dd.html">very seriously</a>.</p>
<p>Fans of the Iowa caucuses also note that <a href="https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/24/lesser-known-republican-presidential-candidates-hope-iowa-caucuses-lift-their-chances/70924419007/">lesser-known candidates</a> can compete without having huge campaign war chests or political experience. But how is being inexperienced in government or being unpopular with party donors considered a good things for selecting presidents? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A brown-skinned man holds a microphone as dozens of white people listen to his campaign speech." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks in Decorah, Iowa, on Jan. 7, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-businessman-vivek-news-photo/1915569886?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This year, Republican entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/02/politics/cnn-iowa-debate-qualified/index.html">star faded quickly</a>, and he failed to qualify for the final pre-Iowa debate hosted by CNN at Drake University in Des Moines. Ramaswamy could only <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/iowa/republican-presidential-primary">pull in 7%</a> of Iowa caucus voters despite his boasts of visiting each of Iowa’s 99 counties, a feat officially known as a “<a href="https://politicaldictionary.com/words/full-grassley/">full Grassley</a>,” named for Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley.</p>
<p>That’s part of a pattern for previous shooting stars in Iowa, including <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN20107Z/">Pete Buttigieg</a> in 2020, <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2015/10/23/ben-carson-charges-9-points-ahead-of-donald-trump-iowa-poll-gop/74278414/">Ben Carson</a> in 2016, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/01/21/145553419/iowa-gop-officially-declares-santorum-the-iowa-caucus-winner">Rick Santorum</a> in 2012, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWAT008623/">Mike Huckabee</a> in 2008 and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dean-scream-remembering-infamous-iowa-caucus-speech/story?id=36711830">Howard Dean</a> in 2004. </p>
<p>They didn’t last all that long after Iowa. And in some cases, they began to flame out before the caucuses.</p>
<h2>Modern-day media realities</h2>
<p>Despite all the small-town narratives, Iowa’s caucus season increasingly has become a media-saturated process just like everything else in American politics.</p>
<p>And running in Iowa costs far more than in the past. </p>
<p>In the 2024 presidential campaign, Republican campaigns spent more than <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/republicans-spend-100-million-iowa-ads-come-rcna130856">US$100 million</a> on 2024 Iowa caucuses advertising, which amounts to about $600 for every Republican caucus participant. In the 2020 presidential campaign, the total amount of ad spending was <a href="https://www.kwwl.com/news/2020-political-ad-spending-how-much-was-spent/article_13729727-896a-505c-90fb-f08159f56b28.html">$44 million</a> – and that included spending from Democratic and Republican candidates. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman wearing a red dress holda a microphone in front of a sign that says Fox News Democracy '24." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley participates in a Fox News town hall in Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 8, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1918255110?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The media’s outsized role involves more than just receiving inflated campaign spending. The fact that reporters focus on <a href="https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/horse-race-reporting-election/">horse-race dynamics</a> and downplay issues has long been a problem that diminishes interest and voter turnout, as media scholar <a href="https://communication.gmu.edu/people/slichter">S. Robert Lichter</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=WzUF8jAAAAAJ">I</a> demonstrated in our 2010 book “<a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442200678/The-Nightly-News-Nightmare-Media-Coverage-of-U.S.-Presidential-Elections-1988-2008-Third-Edition">The Nightly News Nightmare</a>.”</p>
<p>Those who defend Iowa and New Hampshire say they are more accessible to lesser-known and inexperienced candidates, but national polling and fundraising, as well as media coverage, are increasingly used as criteria determining who can effectively participate in these small-state processes and who can’t.</p>
<h2>Long-standing flaws</h2>
<p>Another problem with Iowa is the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/01/31/what-to-know-about-the-iowa-caucuses/">low level of turnout</a>, despite the state’s privileged position. The largest Republican caucus turnout was 180,000 voters in 2016, and the best year for <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/02/07/election-2020-democratic-iowa-caucuses-turnout-eclipsed-2016-fell-short-2008/4691004002/">Democratic turnout</a> was 240,000 voters in 2008, when Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton. </p>
<p>Neither number is all that impressive in a state with a population of <a href="https://publications.iowa.gov/135/1/profile/8-14.html#">nearly 3 million people</a> and about <a href="https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/ia">2 million registered voters</a>, of whom about 630,000 are registered Republicans. If Iowa switched to a primary, which would allow a daylong window for voting, evidence demonstrates there would be a lot more participation. Here’s why. </p>
<p>With limited exceptions, Iowa caucuses require a voter to appear in person during the evening in the middle of winter. This year, that meant at 7 p.m. on an evening that hit below-zero temperatures and heavy snow. Even for Iowans accustomed to the cold, turnout was lower as a result.</p>
<p>But unlike a caucus, a primary allows a person to devote only a few minutes to vote via mail or in person at a convenient time and place.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white man carres his daughter on his shoulders as he walks with hundreds of other white people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida carries his daughter Madison while walking through the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines on Aug. 12, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-florida-gov-ron-desantis-news-photo/1610098448?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Aside from the convenience factor, the major problem with the Iowa caucuses is that the state does not remotely look like America.</p>
<p>According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the vast majority – <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population">88%</a> – of Iowans are white. For the U.S. as a whole, that figure is about <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045222">75%</a>. What that means is that caucus results may not be reflective of the nation as a whole but merely a snapshot of a certain small-town, folksy part of America.</p>
<h2>Vote-counting delays</h2>
<p>Maybe some of these problems could be excused if the process worked well. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/upshot/iowa-caucuses-errors-results.html">it does not</a>.</p>
<p>Despite decades of experience in running caucuses, Iowa has demonstrated that it frequently cannot count. The New York Times described the 2020 Iowa caucuses as an “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/us/politics/iowa-democratic-caucuses.html">epic meltdown</a>,” as results were not finalized for days.</p>
<p>The 2024 process went smoothly, but the 2020 caucuses weren’t the first to have problems. The 2012 Republican contest also suffered from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/report-santorum-finished-34-votes-ahead-of-%20romney-in-new-iowa-tally-votes-from-8-precincts-missing/2012/01/19/gIQAJGuRAQ_story.html">counting misfires</a> that took two weeks to resolve. </p>
<p>A delay in reporting results is not necessarily a bad thing. One wants to ensure accuracy, and delays of days for election results are normal in closely fought contests. But Iowa has demonstrated that its caucuses seem to generate more problems when it comes to reporting results than primaries do.</p>
<p>Democrats <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/iowa-politics-democrats-republican-campaign-1d624898">abandoned the 2024 Iowa caucuses</a> following the 2020 mess there and perhaps in part because President Joe Biden could hardly feel positively about the caucus system after <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/02/05/joe-biden-calls-4th-place-iowa-caucus-finish-gut-punch/4669943002/">his fourth-place finish</a> there in 2020.</p>
<p>This year, the Democratic process effectively bypasses Iowa and New Hampshire and starts with the South Carolina primary.</p>
<h2>A possible alternative?</h2>
<p>How might one fix these issues?</p>
<p>Well, scholars suggest a range of alternatives, including a <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Imperfect-Primary-Oddities-Biases-and-%20Strengths-of-US-Presidential/Norrander/p/book/9780367274948">one-day, nationwide primary</a>, a small-state-first system that groups states of similar population sizes, or perhaps a series of five or so multistate regional primary contests, with the order of the regional groups determined by lottery. </p>
<p>None of these alternatives seems likely to happen, though, and that means the various problems with the Iowa caucus process will continue, regardless of which party is conducting one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen J. Farnsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Iowa caucuses have long been an oddity in modern-day politics but remain a place where GOP candidates can test their presidential aspirations.Stephen J. Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science and Director, Center for Leadership and Media Studies, University of Mary WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180102024-01-12T13:28:25Z2024-01-12T13:28:25ZBiden, like Trump, sidesteps Congress to get things done<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568634/original/file-20240110-21-zk1t05.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C4%2C3008%2C2032&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-combination-of-pictures-created-on-september-29-2020-news-photo/1228795132?adppopup=true">Jim Watson,Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With two presidents – one current and one former – running against each other <a href="https://theconstitutionalist.org/2023/02/12/can-trump-pull-a-cleveland/">for the first time since 1912</a>, the 2024 election presents voters with the unique opportunity to compare how Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, who are <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/potential-rematch-between-biden-and-trump-in-2024-could-shake-up-american-politics">each likely to get their party’s nomination</a>, actually used the authority of the presidency. </p>
<p>Examining Biden and Trump from this perspective, it’s clear that while they pursued vastly different policies, they often used presidential power in remarkably similar ways.</p>
<p>Both Trump and Biden have tried to achieve their policy goals in ways that avoided having to get Congress’ cooperation. There are a few exceptions, with major legislation passed early in the presidents’ terms when they had a unified government – Trump with the <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-to-sign-tax-bill-before-leaving-for-holiday/">2017 tax cuts</a> and Biden with the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/11/15/1055841358/biden-signs-1t-bipartisan-infrastructure-bill-into-law">2021 infrastructure bill</a> and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/cleanenergy/inflation-reduction-act-guidebook/#:%7E:text=On%20August%2016%2C%202022%2C%20President,change%20in%20the%20nation%27s%20history.">2022 Inflation Reduction Act</a>.</p>
<p>But more frequently, they aimed to accomplish their objectives either through their power over the executive branch and administrative agencies or in foreign policy, where a president possesses more discretion than in domestic affairs.</p>
<p>Such similarities in men who could not be more different in their political values and policy priorities naturally raise the question: Why do Trump and Biden seem so alike in how they are using presidential power? <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9I_KwakAAAAJ&hl=en">As a scholar</a> who studies how the constitutional structure of American political institutions effects the authority and behavior of individuals operating within those institutions, I see these similarities as being driven by the fact that, as presidents, they faced the same incentives and constraints.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a suit, seated at a desk, holding up a signed document and flanked by two other men in suits who are standing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Donald Trump holds up a signed executive order on June 24, 2019, to increase sanctions on Iran, flanked by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, left, and Vice President Mike Pence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TrumpExecutiveOrders/a89440a71ec14f0384a2f0d9dda60685/photo?Query=Trump%20executive%20order%20visa%20muslim&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1309&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=NaN&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Policy through executive order</h2>
<p>One place where this similarity is particularly evident is in the number and scope of Trump’s and Biden’s executive orders, which recent presidents have used to order administrative agencies to enact particular policies unilaterally. </p>
<p>Through their first three years in office, the two presidents issued a comparable number of executive orders – <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions">127 for Biden</a> <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders">and 137 for Trump</a>, often for major policy objectives. </p>
<p>For example, Trump’s infamous 2017 “Muslim ban” restricting the immigration into the U.S. of people from several majority-Muslim countries, as well as immigrants from Venezuela and North Korea, was instituted through two <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/02/01/2017-02281/protecting-the-nation-from-foreign-terrorist-entry-into-the-united-states">executive</a> <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/03/09/2017-04837/protecting-the-nation-from-foreign-terrorist-entry-into-the-united-states">orders</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, Biden’s sweeping effort <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-student-loan-relief-for-borrowers-who-need-it-most/#:%7E:text=Forgive%20loan%20balances%20after%2010,debt%2Dfree%20within%2010%20years.">in 2022</a> to <a href="https://www.nasfaa.org/news-item/27820/Answering_the_10_000_Question_Biden_Takes_Executive_Action_on_Student_Loan_Cancellation_Extends_Repayment_Pause">cancel student loan debt</a> was also initiated through an executive order. </p>
<p>In foreign policy, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/15/trump-abraham-accords-palestinians-peace-deal-415083">Trump was able to conclude the Abraham Accords</a> in 2020, normalizing relations between Israel and several Middle Eastern nations. He also unilaterally pulled <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/climate/trump-paris-climate-agreement.html">out of the Paris climate accord</a> in 2017 without congressional input. </p>
<p>When Biden entered office in 2020, he reversed Trump’s action and <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/">reentered the Paris climate accord</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/31/us/politics/biden-defends-afghanistan-withdrawal.html">ended the war in Afghanistan</a> by withdrawing U.S. troops there.</p>
<h2>Trouble in the party</h2>
<p>One reason for the two presidents’ similar exercise of executive power is the circumstances of their presidencies. </p>
<p>Despite their differences, Trump and Biden have faced many of the same isolating conditions that prevent them from achieving great victories through legislation, which forced them to act in those areas where presidential power is stronger. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://spia.uga.edu/faculty_pages/carson/forum17.pdf">both had</a> <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/usa_us-politics_control-white-house-and-congress-democrats-have-2-years-make-big-changes/6201047.html">unified government</a> in the first half of their terms with their party controlling both houses of Congress, both of their parties were internally fractured. </p>
<p>Trump’s attempt to repeal President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act was <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-gop-effort-repeal-obamacare-fails-n787311">famously torpedoed</a> by a dramatic thumbs-down from Republican Sen. John McCain. </p>
<p>These Republican fractures became even more evident as Trump’s presidency wore on. One crucial example of this division: Trump was the only president to have <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/14/956621191/these-are-the-10-republicans-who-voted-to-impeach-trump">members of his own party</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/trump-impeachment-trial-live-updates/2021/02/15/967878039/7-gop-senators-voted-to-convict-trump-only-1-faces-voters-next-year">vote for his removal</a> from office in his two historic impeachments. </p>
<p>Biden has been forced to deal with the consistent threat of potential defections from Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. To get their crucial votes, he had to substantially <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-kyrsten-sinema-joe-manchin-congress-c0d40a6f2490b2613a690995daca7e11">water down</a> his “Build Back Better” infrastructure bill. </p>
<p>Sinema has since left the Democratic Party to <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/kyrsten-sinema-is-becoming-an-independent-what-does-that-mean-for-the-senate">become an independent</a>, and Manchin is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/joe-manchin-absolutely-considering-2024-presidential-run-he-says">exploring a third-party run for president</a> against Biden. The <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/joe-manchin-switching-party-democrat-independent-senate-slim-majority-1819160">Democrats’ Senate majority is too slim</a> to allow the White House to ignore either of these troublesome senators.</p>
<p>After the midterm elections, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-divided-government-means-for-washington-11668642809">both presidents found</a> <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/health-care-trump-animate-voters-survey-shows-1541548869">themselves facing divided government</a>, with the House of Representatives held by the opposing party. </p>
<p>The House in both cases was not afraid to flex its muscle against the president, freely employing its impeachment authority against both of them. They <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/18/us/politics/trump-impeached.html">impeached Trump</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/us/politics/trump-impeached.html">twice</a> and have opened an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/hunter-biden-impeachment-inquiry-house-republicans-51576c5fe4294be2605a14fa81075196">impeachment inquiry</a> against Biden, which may soon lead to a formal impeachment vote.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young girl sits at a table holding a pen, surrounded by adults." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gianna Floyd, the daughter of George Floyd, holds a pen used by U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House on May 25, 2022, to sign an executive order enacting further police reform.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/gianna-floyd-the-daughter-of-george-floyd-holds-a-pen-used-news-photo/1399292579?adppopup=true">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Constitution rules</h2>
<p>Both presidents have been similarly unpopular with Americans. According to Gallup, both presidents had an <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/329384/presidential-approval-ratings-joe-biden.aspx">average approval rating of 43%</a> in the third year of their administrations, and this unpopularity has meant that neither Trump nor Biden has been able to effectively utilize the bully pulpit to force change.</p>
<p>In these conditions, it is no surprise that Trump and Biden turned to the one source of power still available to them: the Constitution. </p>
<p>The structure of American political institutions, <a href="https://www.usa.gov/branches-of-government#:%7E:text=Learn%20about%20the%20executive%2C%20legislative,will%20have%20too%20much%20power.">set up by the Constitution</a>, affects the authority and behavior of individuals operating within those institutions. With that in mind, it is apparent that the policy successes and failures of the Trump and Biden administrations have largely lined up with the powers that the Constitution does and does not give presidents. </p>
<p>With Congress either too obstinate or too polarized to act on the president’s agenda, a president will naturally use the tools that are available to him. The Constitution dictates that those tools are primarily found in administrative actions and foreign policy.</p>
<p>By looking at the Trump and Biden administrations from this constitutional perspective, it’s clear how, despite the hyperpolarization of our politics, the Constitution continues to be influential in the power it grants presidents operating without the cooperation of Congress. </p>
<p>Trump and Biden are very different presidents. Yet, in working from the same constitutional toolbox, they used the means available to their office in similar ways, even in the pursuit of very dissimilar ends.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218010/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jordan Cash does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Biden and Trump are polar opposites when it comes to policy. But they have wielded the power of the presidency in similar ways.Jordan Cash, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172522023-11-09T13:36:28Z2023-11-09T13:36:28ZWith government funding running out soon, expect more brinkmanship despite public dismay at political gridlock<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558474/original/file-20231108-27-e7mj5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C26%2C4391%2C4114&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When Democrats and Republicans fight, do Americans win?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/government-fight-royalty-free-image/1094058960">wildpixel/iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Much of the news coverage of the discussions and negotiations <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/11/07/congress-shutdown-house-gop-plan/">aimed at averting a government shutdown</a> on Nov. 17, 2023, relies on pundits and their unnamed sources, on leaks, speculation, wishful thinking and maybe even the reading of tea leaves. The Conversation tapped an expert on congressional behavior, Northwestern University political scientist <a href="https://sites.northwestern.edu/lharbridgeyong/">Laurel Harbridge-Yong</a>, and asked her what she sees when she looks at the prolonged trouble Congress has had over the past few years coming to agreement on the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-look-use-debt-limit-tactics-funding-fight-rcna90876">debt ceiling and</a> <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/collision-course-government-funding-raises-fears-shutdown-rcna88849">spending to keep the government open</a>. Harbridge-Yong is a specialist in partisan conflict and the lack of bipartisan agreement in American politics, so her expertise is tailor-made for the moment.</em> </p>
<h2>What do the repeated and difficult debt limit and budget negotiations in Congress look like to you?</h2>
<p>The problems that Congress and the White House are having in reaching compromises highlight two aspects of contemporary politics. The first: Since the 1970s, both the House and Senate have <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/">become much more polarized</a>. Members of the two parties are more unified internally and further apart from the opposing party. You don’t have the overlap between parties now that existed 50 years ago. </p>
<p>Even as the U.S. has experienced rising polarization, there are still <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/356174/democrats-big-political-tent-helps-explain-stalemate.aspx">important differences within the parties</a>. Not every Democrat is the same as another and not every Republican is the same. </p>
<p>This relates to a second point: Members’ individual and collective interests shape their behavior. For <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/06/republicans-debt-ceiling-mccarthy-freedom-caucus">Republicans in more competitive districts</a>, their own individual electoral interests probably say, “Let’s cut a deal. Let’s not risk a default on the debt or a government shutdown that the Republicans get blamed for, and which is going to run really poorly in my district.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man holding a leather folio and standing at microphones." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, will have to keep his GOP caucus happy while making a deal with Democrats to pass government funding.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/speaker-of-the-house-mike-johnson-gives-a-brief-statement-news-photo/1746072258?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>On the other hand, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-house-hardliners-could-try-block-debt-ceiling-deal-without-robust-cuts-2023-05-18/">House Freedom Caucus Republicans</a> come from really safe districts, and they care more about their primary elections than they do their general elections. So their own electoral interests say, “Stand firm, fight till the bitter end, try to force the hand of the president.” </p>
<p>These kinds of electoral interests occur at the individual and collective levels for members of a party. Since the 1990s, there’s been <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-polisci-072012-113747">a lot more competition for majority control</a>, and as a result the two parties don’t want to do something that gives the other party a win in the eyes of the voter. </p>
<p>So you now have many Republicans who are more willing to fight quite hard against the Democrats because they don’t want to give a win to Biden. This is most evident among the most conservative wing of the party, which has both individual and collective reasons to oppose a compromise. The far-right wing recently showed its power over the party, both through <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mccarthy-says-he-thinks-he-will-survive-leadership-challenge-us-house-2023-10-03/">ousting former Speaker Kevin McCarthy</a> – in large part for his willingness to broker deals and compromise with Democrats – and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/25/politics/house-speaker-vote-republicans/index.html">influencing the selection of the new speaker, Mike Johnson</a>. </p>
<p>Johnson may be less willing to broker compromises with the Democrats <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-25/what-to-know-about-trump-backed-speaker-candidate-mike-johnson">because of his own preferences</a> and because he needs to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/27/what-weve-learned-about-mike-johnson-so-far-00123924">maintain the support of the far-right members</a> in his party. Beyond the far-right wing of the party, other conservative Republicans might also believe that insisting on major spending cuts and concessions from the Democrats will boost the electoral fortunes of their party.</p>
<p>Democrats are also resistant to compromising, both because they <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/05/24/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-35/">don’t want to gut programs</a> that they put in place and also because they don’t want to make this look like a win for Republicans, who have been able to play chicken and get what they wanted. </p>
<p>These dynamics, layered on top of policy interests, all contribute to the problems that we’re seeing now. </p>
<h2>What has been the role of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/19/1149861784/debt-ceiling-brinksmanship">brinkmanship in these conflicts</a>?</h2>
<p>When I think of brinkmanship, I’m thinking about negotiating tactics that push things until the very last minute to try to secure the most concessions for your side. During the May 2023 version of these negotiations, that meant <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/24/debt-ceiling-gop-demands/">coming to the edge of potential default</a> on the debt. This fall, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/government-shutdown-deadline-09-30-23/index.html">Congress passed a short-term funding bill</a> with only hours to spare before the government shut down. Now, it faces the <a href="https://www.federaltimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2023/11/06/less-than-two-weeks-to-go-before-the-next-government-shutdown-deadline/">next deadline to fund the government by November 17</a>.</p>
<h2>Does brinkmanship work?</h2>
<p>I was looking back at some of the previous government <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-debt-ceiling-crises-and-the-political-chaos-theyve-unleashed-205178">shutdowns as well as debt ceiling negotiations</a>. In some instances, concessions by the other side were granted, so brinkmanship paid off. In other instances it was less obvious that there was a win, and in some instances there was perhaps a penalty, when the parties couldn’t agree and there was a government shutdown. </p>
<p>One party may be banking on the fact that the other party’s going to get blamed by the public while their own party reputation won’t be hurt. In the 1990s, it seemed as though it was the <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/voters-blamed-gop-for-1995-shutdown_n_842769">Republicans who took the brunt</a> of the blame for a government shutdown. </p>
<p>There have been instances in which parties get something out of brinkmanship, as in the government shutdown at the beginning of the Trump administration over <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/25/trump-shutdown-announcement-1125529">funding for the border wall</a>. The Democrats ended up giving some money for the border wall. It wasn’t all of what Trump wanted, but it was part of what Trump and the Republicans wanted.</p>
<p>Brinkmanship and gridlock are disproportionately consequential for Democrats, who generally <a href="https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/">want to expand government programs</a>, versus for Republicans, who tend to want to <a href="https://prod-static.gop.com/media/Resolution_Platform.pdf?_gl=1*gor9yy*_gcl_au*MTY3NTEyMDk2NC4xNjgyNTE4Nzc1&_ga=2.185781033.1441572001.1685048771-688242051.1682518780">constrict government programs</a>. So gridlock or forced spending cuts are easier for Republicans to stomach than Democrats. It may be part of why we see Republicans, especially on the far right, going harder on this kind of brinkmanship. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C25%2C8575%2C5665&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men sitting in yellow armchairs in front of an elegant fireplace." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C25%2C8575%2C5665&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kevin McCarthy, then the House speaker, at left, meets with President Joe Biden to discuss the debt limit in the White House on May 22, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenDebtLimit/6f1e6ced06ab4a0b81026f02e69825f6/photo?Query=debt%20limit&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1596&currentItemNo=307">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>How does the public see brinkmanship?</h2>
<p>On the whole, I think the public doesn’t like it. </p>
<p>My own work has shown that the <a href="https://www.ipr.northwestern.edu/documents/policy-briefs/harbridge-policybrief-2020.pdf?linkId=84025998">public does not like gridlock</a> on issues in which people agree on the end goal. The public, on average, even prefers a victory for the other side over policy gridlock. </p>
<p>A win for their own side is the best outcome, a compromise is next best, a win for the other side is next best after that. Gridlock is the worst outcome. </p>
<p>The place where it gets a little bit more challenging is that how people understand and interpret politics is heavily <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.072805.103054">shaped by how politics is framed to them</a>. </p>
<p>Looking back at the debt ceiling negotiations: Conservative politicians and media spun the issue very much as a <a href="https://lucas.house.gov/posts/lucas-statement-on-house-gop-plan-addressing-debt-ceiling-applauds-passage-of-limit-save-grow-act">fiscal responsibility</a> question, saying it was just like a family’s personal budget at home or that it was really important to not just raise the debt limit without <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/us/politics/debt-limit-vote-republicans.html">spending concessions</a>. </p>
<p>Those on the Democratic side heard that the Republicans were <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5072354/congressional-democrats-accuse-republicans-holding-economy-hostage-debt-limit-talks">holding the country hostage</a>, that we can’t give in to them, <a href="https://democrats-appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/speaker-mccarthy-puts-nation-s-economy-at-risk">this will gut really important programs</a>, and so forth.</p>
<p>So on the one hand, the public doesn’t like gridlock – especially gridlock when the consequences are so bad, as default or a shutdown would be. On the other hand, voters in each party’s base hear the issues framed in very different ways. Both sides may <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/debt-ceiling-crisis-democrats-gop">end up blaming the other side</a>. They’re not necessarily going to be calling their legislators and asking them to compromise.</p>
<h2>Democracy is about representation. As they conduct negotiations, do lawmakers see themselves as representing voters?</h2>
<p>Many conservative Republicans who hold firm in budget negotiations may believe that they are good representatives of what the base wants. In <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/rejecting-compromise/01F2DA900C72ACF02E1B3ECF4EED43D3">the recent book</a> that I wrote with Sarah Anderson and Daniel Butler, we found that legislators of both parties believe their primary voters want them to reject compromises. </p>
<p>But in today’s conflicts, those constituents may not really understand the consequences. Sometimes good representation doesn’t just mean doing what the public wants – legislators have better information or understanding of how things work and should do what’s in the best interests of their constituents.</p>
<p>However, even if individual members think they’re representing their constituents, representation at the aggregate level can be poor. </p>
<p>What the public as a whole – which tends to be more moderate – wants is compromise and resolution.</p>
<p><em>This story is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/voters-want-compromise-in-congress-so-why-the-brinkmanship-over-the-debt-ceiling-206465">a story originally published</a> on May 26, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217252/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurel Harbridge-Yong receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the National Institute of Justice, Unite America, and the Social Science Research Council.</span></em></p>The deadline to fund the US government is fast approaching, and it will take a Congress seemingly addicted to brinkmanship to keep the government open.Laurel Harbridge-Yong, Associate Professor of Political Science, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168842023-11-09T13:35:47Z2023-11-09T13:35:47ZAs national political omens go, Republicans sought middle ground on abortion in Virginia − and still lost the state legislature<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558378/original/file-20231108-21-ta5abq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2219%2C421%2C3631%2C3473&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gov. Glenn Youngkin speaks during a rally in Leesburg, Va., on Nov. 6, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/gov-glenn-youngkin-speaks-during-a-get-out-the-vote-rally-news-photo/1779369936?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://apnews.com/article/virginia-legislature-election-2023-79f9337731c25decc83b83eeb4d3e00e">election results</a> in Virginia offer Republicans across the country one key lesson before the 2024 presidential election: Revise the GOP position on the critical issue of abortion. </p>
<p>Though not on the ballot, GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin had campaigned for other GOP members on his plan to <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/virginia-gov-glenn-youngkin-bet-on-a-less-extreme-abortion-ban-and-lost">ban abortions after 15 weeks</a>, as opposed to the outright abortion ban that some Virginia politicians have promised to pass. Political observers saw Youngkin’s plan as a compromise that would limit the political fallout for the GOP from the U.S. Supreme Court’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/24/us/roe-wade-overturned-supreme-court.html">reversal of Roe v. Wade</a>, which constitutionally protected the right to abortion.</p>
<p>Since the spring of 2023, when Youngkin first weighed in heavily in Republican primaries for the state legislature, Youngkin and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/glenn-youngkin-united-virginia-republicans-15-week-abortion-ban-pushed-rcna119199">other GOP candidates</a> emphasized the 15-week ban in the face of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/11/08/virginia-senate-house-election-results-2023/">relentless Democratic attacks</a>.</p>
<p>But Youngkin’s hopes that his 15-week ban would spare the party further political grief <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/11/virginia-election-abortion-glenn-youngkin-democrats-republicans.html">failed miserably</a>, as Democrats secured control over both legislative branches. </p>
<p>Largely on the strength of suburban voters outside Washington, D.C., and Virginia’s capital, Richmond, Democratic candidates who focused on the abortion issue <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/08/us/politics/glenn-youngkin-virginia.html">captured a majority</a> of seats in the House of Delegates and retained their majority in the Senate. </p>
<h2>Abortion was the key issue</h2>
<p>In my view as a political scientist, the effectiveness of the Democratic position on abortion shouldn’t be a surprise to Virginia voters and politicians. </p>
<p>Polls, including a September 2023 <a href="https://www.umw.edu/news/2023/09/27/virginians-closely-divided-over-2023-legislative-elections-in-statewide-survey/">statewide survey</a> by the University of Mary Washington and Research America Inc., demonstrated that Democrats were far more likely to vote based on the abortion question than Republicans were.</p>
<p>In that survey, 70% of Democrats considered abortion a major factor for them in the upcoming elections, as compared with 35% of Republicans. </p>
<p>Among independents, 54% said the abortion ruling was a major factor as they considered how to approach the Virginia midterms.</p>
<h2>Straddling GOP extremes</h2>
<p>Youngkin was elected governor two years ago as a largely unknown conservative who had <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/glenn-youngkin-fortune-carlyle-virginia/2021/08/02/aeeebab4-efc5-11eb-81d2-ffae0f931b8f_story.html">a lengthy business career</a> – and no legislative record. </p>
<p>In recent decades, Virginia went from a reliably Republican state in presidential elections to one where Donald Trump <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/virginia-results/">lost by 10 points</a> in 2020.</p>
<p>As a political novice, Youngkin successfully straddled the Republican dynamics of this purple state by trying to appeal to supporters of Donald Trump and his MAGA movement as well as moderate suburban Republicans uncomfortable with Trump’s chaotic administration and legal troubles. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A middle aged white man dressed in a business suit watches another white man answer a question as he gestures with his hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558469/original/file-20231108-21-u6igh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558469/original/file-20231108-21-u6igh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558469/original/file-20231108-21-u6igh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558469/original/file-20231108-21-u6igh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558469/original/file-20231108-21-u6igh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558469/original/file-20231108-21-u6igh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558469/original/file-20231108-21-u6igh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Candidate and former Democratic Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, left, debates Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin on Sept. 28, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-virginia-gov-terry-mcauliffe-debates-republican-news-photo/1343654379?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Youngkin offered up conservative cultural war messaging – particularly on parental rights in public schools that convinced Trump voters to cast ballots for him in his 2021 race against <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/07/politics/glenn-youngkin-parental-rights-education-strategy/index.html">Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe</a>. </p>
<p>But in a nod to suburban Republicans, Youngkin <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/politics/virginia-elections-glenn-youngkin/index.html">kept his distance</a> from the former president’s insistence that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. Youngkin won the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2021-elections/virginia-governor-results">2021 election</a> by two points. </p>
<p>As the first Republican to win a statewide election since 2009, his victory – and that of the newly Republican House of Delegates majority – <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/youngkins-virginia-win-offers-midterm-road-map-for-gop-warning-for-democrats-11635942003">energized the dispirited Republicans</a> lamenting the political changes in the state.</p>
<h2>Shifting political landscape</h2>
<p>To be sure, Youngkin wasn’t just another fresh face touting radically new ideas for his party. </p>
<p>His campaign’s focus on giving <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/gov-youngkin-makes-final-pitch-virginia-voters-education/story?id=104678396#:%7E:text=In%202021%2C%20Youngkin%20ran%20on,could%20advance%20more%20education%20legislation.">parents more control</a> over local school districts connected with many white conservatives who were incensed that their children were being forced to read books that touched on contentious topics such as racism and sexuality.</p>
<p>Governing as a strident conservative focusing on easing COVID restrictions, cutting taxes and, above all, shifting the direction of public education, Youngkin ran into roadblocks <a href="https://apnews.com/article/religion-education-race-and-ethnicity-racial-injustice-virginia-490f552bb055df29af890b703e06e605">in the Virginia Senate</a>, where Democrats remained in the majority. </p>
<p>In one example, the Youngkin administration <a href="https://richmond.com/news/local/education/new-draft-history-standards-reorient-framing-of-race-relations/article_4504a142-7775-546d-9ea0-3c4272436a00.html">proposed a set of revisions</a> to the state’s Standards of Learning in history and social sciences. </p>
<p>Those proposed standards failed to mention Juneteenth and Martin Luther King Jr. Day and drew the ire of Black politicians and parents <a href="https://www.virginiamercury.com/2022/11/17/missing-context-political-bias-some-of-critics-objections-to-virginias-new-history-standards/">who criticized the proposal</a> as “whitewashing.” </p>
<p>Youngkin’s proposals <a href="https://richmond.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/board-of-education-rejects-youngkins-proposed-revisions-to-k-12-history-standards/article_ac6dbdb1-8632-5abd-97e4-39b978982b3f.html">were later rejected</a> by the state Board of Education.</p>
<p>After two years of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/06/23/virginia-school-board-critical-race-theory-mh-orig.cnn">contentious suburban school board meetings</a> in places like Loudoun and Spotsylvania counties, Democrats had a response to Youngkin’s views on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/02/parents-right-movement-virginia-republicans">parental rights </a>. They argued that the GOP empowered extremists who want to ban books and tell lies about U.S. and Virginia history. </p>
<p>As a result, a <a href="https://www.umw.edu/news/2023/09/27/virginians-closely-divided-over-2023-legislative-elections-in-statewide-survey/">preelection statewide poll</a> showed that the education issue largely split the electorate down the middle, with roughly equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans saying that school policies were important to their choice in the Virginia midterm elections. </p>
<h2>Where does election leave Youngkin and GOP?</h2>
<p>With the failure of his plan to recast the abortion debate, Youngkin faces another loss that has significant influence on how he might achieve any legislative victories in the remaining two years of his term. </p>
<p>Democrats control the state legislature, and Youngkin’s tenure may be marked by more legislative gridlock. </p>
<p>Youngkin might want to cooperate more with Democratic lawmakers going forward, but as a longtime analyst of Virginia politics, I believe the time when an olive branch would have been most effective was two years ago.</p>
<p>Instead, Youngkin started his term by defining himself as a partisan champion, albeit not a fully pro-Trump Republican.</p>
<p>He has reached the halfway point in his tenure where neither of those positions were rewarded by voters. That’s not a good sign for a guy once touted as a possible GOP presidential candidate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216884/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen J. Farnsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Democrats regained the Virginia legislature in the 2023 election, and that spells trouble for Republicans seeking to win the White House in 2024.Stephen J. Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and Director of the UMW Center for Leadership and Media Studies, University of Mary WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168092023-11-03T21:14:23Z2023-11-03T21:14:23ZIt’s not just about facts: Democrats and Republicans have sharply different attitudes about removing misinformation from social media<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557492/original/file-20231103-28-dk0wt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C10%2C7217%2C4808&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Your political leanings go a long way to determine whether you think it's a good or bad idea to take down misinformation.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/man-reading-fake-news-on-laptop-royalty-free-image/1441611425">Johner Images via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Misinformation is a key <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2023.pdf">global threat</a>, but Democrats and Republicans disagree about how to address the problem. In particular, Democrats and Republicans diverge sharply on removing misinformation from social media.</p>
<p>Only three weeks after the Biden administration announced the Disinformation Governance Board in April 2022, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/18/disinformation-board-dhs-nina-jankowicz/">effort to develop best practices for countering disinformation was halted</a> because of Republican concerns about its mission. Why do Democrats and Republicans have such different attitudes about content moderation?</p>
<p>My colleagues <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=5EIL7zMAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">Jennifer Pan</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=KfipOeoAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">Margaret E. Roberts</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=3flEE1wAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">I</a> found in a study published in the journal Science Advances that Democrats and Republicans not only disagree about what is true or false, they also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg6799">differ in their internalized preferences</a> for content moderation. Internalized preferences may be related to people’s moral values, identities or other psychological factors, or people internalizing the preferences of party elites. </p>
<p>And though people are sometimes strategic about wanting misinformation that counters their political views removed, internalized preferences are a much larger factor in the differing attitudes toward content moderation. </p>
<h2>Internalized preferences or partisan bias?</h2>
<p>In our study, we found that Democrats are about twice as likely as Republicans to want to remove misinformation, while Republicans are about twice as likely as Democrats to consider removal of misinformation as censorship. Democrats’ attitudes might depend somewhat on whether the content aligns with their own political views, but this seems to be due, at least in part, to different perceptions of accuracy.</p>
<p>Previous research showed that Democrats and Republicans <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210666120">have different views</a> about content moderation of misinformation. One of the most prominent explanations is the “fact gap”: the difference in what Democrats and Republicans believe is true or false. For example, a study found that both Democrats and Republicans were more likely to believe news headlines <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.31.2.211">that were aligned with their own political views</a>.</p>
<p>But it is unlikely that the fact gap alone can explain the huge differences in content moderation attitudes. That’s why we set out to study two other factors that might lead Democrats and Republicans to have different attitudes: preference gap and party promotion. A preference gap is a difference in internalized preferences about whether, and what, content should be removed. Party promotion is a person making content moderation decisions based on whether the content aligns with their partisan views. </p>
<p>We asked 1,120 U.S. survey respondents who identified as either Democrat or Republican about their opinions on a set of political headlines that we identified as misinformation based on a bipartisan fact check. Each respondent saw one headline that was aligned with their own political views and one headline that was misaligned. After each headline, the respondent answered whether they would want the social media company to remove the headline, whether they would consider it censorship if the social media platform removed the headline, whether they would report the headline as harmful, and how accurate the headline was.</p>
<h2>Deep-seated differences</h2>
<p>When we compared how Democrats and Republicans would deal with headlines overall, we found strong evidence for a preference gap. Overall, 69% of Democrats said misinformation headlines in our study should be removed, but only 34% of Republicans said the same; 49% of Democrats considered the misinformation headlines harmful, but only 27% of Republicans said the same; and 65% of Republicans considered headline removal to be censorship, but only 29% of Democrats said the same.</p>
<p>Even in cases where Democrats and Republicans agreed that the same headlines were inaccurate, Democrats were nearly twice as likely as Republicans to want to remove the content, while Republicans were nearly twice as likely as Democrats to consider removal censorship. </p>
<p><iframe id="GJnyn" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GJnyn/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We didn’t test explicitly why Democrats and Republicans have such different internalized preferences, but there are at least two possible reasons. First, Democrats and Republicans might differ in factors like their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0015141">moral values</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2020.104031">identities</a>. Second, Democrats and Republicans might internalize what the elites in their parties signal. For example, Republican elites have recently framed content moderation as a <a href="https://www.rubio.senate.gov/rubio-introduces-sec-230-legislation-to-crack-down-on-big-tech-algorithms-and-protect-free-speech/">free speech</a> and <a href="https://www.flgov.com/2021/05/24/governor-ron-desantis-signs-bill-to-stop-the-censorship-of-floridians-by-big-tech/">censorship</a> issue. Republicans might use these elites’ preferences to inform their own.</p>
<p>When we zoomed in on headlines that are either aligned or misaligned for Democrats, we found a party promotion effect: Democrats were less favorable to content moderation when misinformation aligned with their own views. Democrats were 11% less likely to want the social media company to remove headlines that aligned with their own political views. They were 13% less likely to report headlines that aligned with their own views as harmful. We didn’t find a similar effect for Republicans. </p>
<p>Our study shows that party promotion may be partly due to different perceptions of accuracy of the headlines. When we looked only at Democrats who agreed with our statement that the headlines were false, the party promotion effect was reduced to 7%.</p>
<h2>Implications for social media platforms</h2>
<p>We find it encouraging that the effect of party promotion is much smaller than the effect of internalized preferences, especially when accounting for accuracy perceptions. However, given the huge partisan differences in content moderation preferences, we believe that social media companies should look beyond the fact gap when designing content moderation policies that aim for bipartisan support.</p>
<p>Future research could explore whether getting Democrats and Republicans to agree on <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4005326">moderation processes</a> – rather than moderation of individual pieces of content – could reduce disagreement. Also, other types of content moderation such as downweighting, which involves platforms reducing the virality of certain content, might prove to be less contentious. Finally, if the preference gap – the differences in deep-seated preferences between Democrats and Republicans – is rooted in value differences, platforms could try to use <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/spc3.12501">different moral framings</a> to appeal to people on both sides of the partisan divide.</p>
<p>For now, Democrats and Republicans are likely to continue to disagree over whether removing misinformation from social media improves public discourse or amounts to censorship.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216809/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Elisabeth Appel has been supported by an SAP Stanford Graduate Fellowship in Science and Engineering, a Stanford Center on Philanthropy and Civil Society PhD Research Fellowship and a Stanford Impact Labs Summer Collaborative Research Fellowship. She has interned at Google in 2020 and attended an event where food was paid for by Meta.</span></em></p>One person’s content moderation is another’s censorship when it comes to Democrats’ and Republicans’ views on handling misinformation.Ruth Elisabeth Appel, Ph.D. Candidate in Communication, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166082023-10-31T12:35:11Z2023-10-31T12:35:11Z3 reasons the House GOP is not any more dysfunctional than the Democrats − even after the prolonged speaker chaos<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556691/original/file-20231030-15-k38a3a.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C9%2C6299%2C4196&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tabulating votes during one of the many ballots held by House Republicans to choose a speaker.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CongressSpeaker/ff27ba6e7c3444ca9fb9ec68dd187473/photo?Query=speaker%20vote%20House%20GOP&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=430&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For many observers, a key takeaway from the recent leadership struggle in the U.S. House is that Democrats <a href="https://theweek.com/politics/the-big-winner-of-the-gop-speaker-mess-might-be-hakeem-jeffries">skillfully manage</a> their caucus while Republicans are <a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-10-24/editorial-the-gop-is-broken-and-the-nation-is-paying-the-price-in-speaker-turmoil">uniquely</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/21/jim-jordan-house-speaker-republicans-dysfunction">dysfunctional</a>.</p>
<p>This claim is based in large part on a <a href="https://rollcall.com/2023/10/27/whip-it-good-not-exactly-say-democrats-who-watched-gop-speaker-fight/">comparison</a> <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/kevin-mccarthy-republican-nancy-pelosi-speaker-emirita-rcna119495">between</a> Republicans’ perceived disloyalty in removing their speaker, Kevin McCarthy, during the current Congress and Democrats’ apparent loyalty toward their speaker, Nancy Pelosi, in previous Congresses.</p>
<p>At first glance, this seems to be a fair comparison. Both parties have dissident – or anti-establishment – factions that sometimes chafe at the compromises made by their leaders. They include “the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/11/740721823/pelosi-clashes-with-progressive-squad-as-internal-party-tensions-get-personal">Squad</a>” for Democrats and the <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/28/house-freedom-caucus-mccarthy-shutdown-letter">Freedom Caucus</a> for Republicans. </p>
<p>And both parties have <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/05/narrow-majorities-in-u-s-house-have-become-more-common-but-havent-always-led-to-gridlock/">lately held narrow majorities</a> when in power, which gives potential leverage to these factions. </p>
<p>So why do Republicans seem to be having a harder time with these similar circumstances than do Democrats? Is it the relative skill of their respective leaders? Are Republicans simply more dysfunctional?</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Jks9RasAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of Congress, political parties and elections</a>. And I would argue that, other than possible differences in leadership skill or caucus dysfunction, there are three important factors that can help explain the observed differences in outcomes for the two parties:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dark-haired women in a purple jacket shakes the hand of a white-haired man in a suit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, left, had a tight grip on her Democratic caucus, since they both wanted to pass the agenda of Democratic President Joe Biden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-shakes-hands-with-speaker-of-the-house-news-photo/1375645589?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. The motion-to-vacate rule</h2>
<p>When she regained the speakership in 2019, Pelosi perceived that she might face the same sort of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/sixteen-democrats-sign-letter-opposing-pelosi-speaker-n938066">internal party threats</a> to remove her as McCarthy eventually did four years later. </p>
<p>This is why she <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/02/681547346/democrats-announce-major-changes-to-u-s-house-rules">changed the House rules</a> to increase the threshold of support that was required to bring a formal motion to vacate the speakership, which stood then at a single lawmaker. The revised rule required the support of a majority of either party’s caucus in order to force a vote. This rule helped Pelosi keep her speakership secure even in the face of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/04/15/nancy-pelosi-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-481704">internal party divisions</a> similar to those on the other side of the aisle.</p>
<p>That rule would have saved McCarthy. However, he <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64194129">negotiated it away</a> during his effort to become speaker, so that once again it took only one lawmaker to force a vote that could end up bringing down the speaker. </p>
<p>You could argue that reverting to the single-lawmaker rule is simply another example of inferior strategic thinking by GOP leadership. But I believe it is possible that no Republican candidate could have avoided making this concession. After all, McCarthy first tried offering only a partial change – agreeing to lower the threshold <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mccarthy-motion-to-vacate-rule-speaker/">down to five</a> – but still could not secure the votes he needed until finally agreeing to a threshold of one. </p>
<h2>2. Which party is in the White House</h2>
<p>During the previous Congress, the House majority – Democrats – was from the same party as the sitting president, Joe Biden. The members of the president’s party in the House knew that if the chamber got sidetracked with a speakership fight, their president’s agenda would also be sidetracked. </p>
<p>In turn, this could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S002238160808">diminish the president’s public approval ratings</a>. </p>
<p>Since Biden is the public face of the Democratic party, when his approval dips, this <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111273">harms the relative electoral prospects</a> of all candidates running for reelection under his party’s label. So, Democrats had an incentive to cooperate, for fear of losing their own seats and their party’s majority in Congress.</p>
<p>In contrast, during the current Congress, the Republican majority faces a president from the opposite party. This circumstance can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381608080961">create an incentive</a> for the majority party to prevent the president from achieving legislative successes. Poor ratings for Biden could help Republicans running for reelection. In this context, a speakership fight that sidetracks legislation makes more sense from the party’s perspective: It could even help the party in the next election.</p>
<h2>3. Ideology</h2>
<p>Finally, dissidents in the Republican Party have greater leverage than their Democratic counterparts based on their ideas about policy and governing. </p>
<p>Democrats generally agree that a functioning government is needed to help <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/great-depression-and-world-war-ii-1929-1945/franklin-delano-roosevelt-and-the-new-deal/">solve societal problems</a>. So, dissident factions in the Democratic Party are typically unwilling to shut down government operations indefinitely in order to extract concessions from their leadership.</p>
<p>In contrast, Republicans are more likely to believe, as President Reagan <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IlcDvXaUCw">famously stated</a>, that “government IS the problem.” This means that dissident factions in the Republican Party can much more credibly threaten to indefinitely <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/21/government-shutdown-latest-spending-vote-mccarthy-republicans">halt government operations</a> – doing so does not conflict as much with their policy goals. In turn, the fact that they have less incentive to drop their obstruction gives them more leverage over their party’s leadership.</p>
<h2>It’s more complicated than you think</h2>
<p>Would Republicans have moved to vacate the speakership if Donald Trump were in the White House and eager to pass his conservative legislative agenda? Would Pelosi have survived without changing the rules? </p>
<p>You can never know the answers to these questions for certain. But thinking about these hypothetical situations helps illustrate that political context matters. How members of a party will behave in a given situation is affected by many factors, including congressional rules, election pressures and policy preferences. Sometimes, these factors simply align in a way that makes it hard to be the speaker.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216608/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David R. Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the wake of the three-week internal GOP battle to choose a speaker, a scholar of Congress says that what looks like dysfunction is actually something else.David R. Jones, Professor of Political Science, Baruch College, CUNYLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164012023-10-25T20:02:19Z2023-10-25T20:02:19ZNew House Speaker Mike Johnson leads a GOP majority weakened by decades of declining party authority<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555920/original/file-20231025-21-dtjqm0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=42%2C42%2C5668%2C3810&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">House Republicans applaud as U.S. Rep. Mike Johnson, center, is elected the new speaker of the House on Oct. 25, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/house-republicans-applaud-as-u-s-rep-mike-johnson-is-news-photo/1756417576?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After the House of Representatives took the unprecedented step on Oct. 3, 2023, of removing its own speaker, Kevin McCarthy of California, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/10/03/us/politics/mccarthy-house-speaker-vote-live.html">with eight Republicans joining all 208 voting Democrats to</a> “vacate the chair,” what followed was weeks of uncertainty. Until <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/24/us/politics/house-speaker-election.html">conservative Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson</a> was elected speaker of the House on Oct. 25, no candidate had been able to secure the necessary number of Republicans to win a vote on the House floor. And without an elected speaker, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/gops-house-paralysis-is-a-crisis-in-a-time-of-crises-216204">chamber was effectively stuck</a>.</p>
<p>The two proximate reasons for the GOP’s struggle to pick and keep a speaker are that it is internally divided and its majority in the House is small. But as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rzgJTxIAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar of American politics</a>, I believe the party’s problems also stem from long-term pressures that have made it hard for both parties in Congress to exercise the kind of authority they need to govern.</p>
<h2>The authority of parties</h2>
<p>An effective legislative party exercises four kinds of authority. The first is the ability to choose the chamber’s top leader and write the chamber’s rules – which both form part of what political scientists call <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691118123/fighting-for-the-speakership">organizational authority</a>. </p>
<p>The second kind is <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/setting-the-agenda/C3B6AB4BAD51BDEE406120597A460C16">procedural authority</a>, or the ability to set the legislative agenda and decide which bills come to the floor for a vote.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A middle aged white dressed in a business suit rests his hands on a lectern as he stands in front of two other white men" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555896/original/file-20231025-27-poazjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555896/original/file-20231025-27-poazjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555896/original/file-20231025-27-poazjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555896/original/file-20231025-27-poazjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555896/original/file-20231025-27-poazjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555896/original/file-20231025-27-poazjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555896/original/file-20231025-27-poazjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy stands in front of Republican House members Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise in this 2019 photograph.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/house-minority-leader-rep-kevin-mccarthy-speaks-as-rep-jim-news-photo/1177076170?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The third type of authority is over policy – being able to pass the party’s desired bills and amendments on the floor.</p>
<p>Finally, parties have electoral authority, meaning they help their members get reelected and help challengers beat incumbents from the other party.</p>
<p>All four kinds of authority are important, but the first two are especially so. Without them, the minority party in the House could choose the speaker, write the chamber’s rules in its favor and bring only the bills it prefers to the chamber floor.</p>
<h2>Before the 1990s: Stronger parties</h2>
<p>From the 1970s through the mid-1990s, as the House Democratic Party – the majority party at the time – became more liberal, its members worked to expand the party’s authority in all four dimensions, hoping to marginalize Republicans and conservative Democrats.</p>
<p>As a result, minority party Republicans had fewer and fewer chances to bring bills and amendments to the floor, and when they did, they <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo3638205.html">usually lost to more liberal proposals </a>. Democrats’ election fundraising also grew rapidly, and they gave more attention to recruiting strong candidates to run for office.</p>
<p>Republicans adopted these tactics after they became the majority party in the House in 1995 and elected <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700633265/">Newt Gingrich</a> as speaker. <a href="https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/9270/leading-representatives">Under Gingrich’s leadership</a>, the GOP pushed through a package of major conservative bills in the first 100 days of the new Congress, and Democrats were mostly powerless to stop them.</p>
<h2>From the 1990s to today: Weakening parties</h2>
<p>Though Republicans appeared to have a monopoly on power in the House in 1995, their rise to the majority also coincided with significant changes in the political environment that would threaten the authority of both parties.</p>
<p>For one thing, congressional elections became more competitive, <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/I/bo24732099.html">giving the minority little incentive</a> to help the majority govern. <a href="https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/">Smaller margins in the House between the two parties</a> gave the majority party less leeway to allow for defections on floor votes. And new legislators were elected to Congress who were skeptical of leaders and the tradition of party loyalty.</p>
<p>The most obvious sign of fraying party authority was a new willingness of lawmakers, <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3638134">starting in the mid-1990s</a>, to vote against their own party’s nominee for speaker. In 2019, Democrat Nancy Pelosi had to engage in <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3638134">intense backroom negotiations</a> to get elected speaker; in January 2023, the House went through <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/06/us/politics/house-speaker-vote-mccarthy.html">15 rounds of balloting</a> before selecting McCarthy as speaker.</p>
<p>In recent years, other forces have further weakened the authority of the House Republican Party in particular. These include the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/04/08/five-facts-about-fox-news/">rise of Fox News as the dominant voice of conservatism</a> and the emergence of <a href="https://www.cpi.org/">outside groups</a> that lobby GOP lawmakers to avoid compromise and act aggressively on behalf of conservative policies.</p>
<p>The election of Donald Trump in 2016 accelerated this trend by turning the <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/donald-trump-working-class-voters-219231">Republican Party’s base toward angry populism</a> and encouraging some incumbents to openly defy their party in the hopes of tapping into that base. </p>
<p>It also encouraged other conservative mavericks to run for Congress, such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/us/politics/lauren-boebert-colorado-elected.html">Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado</a>, <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2023/01/06/lauren-boebert-kevin-mccarthy-speaker-votes/">who opposed McCarthy’s initial selection as speaker</a> or who otherwise <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/01/politics/mccarthy-government-spending-fight/index.html">made it hard for him to lead the party</a>.</p>
<h2>What comes next?</h2>
<p>The current situation has created a serious <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780199670840.001.0001/acref-9780199670840-e-223">collective action problem</a> for the GOP, meaning that too many lawmakers think only about their own political needs, even at the risk of hurting the party as a whole. Polls show that the stalemate over choosing a speaker was <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/10/22/americans-house-elect-speaker-poll/71270869007/">damaging to the Republican Party’s reputation</a>. But so many party members believe they will win the support of conservative voters in their districts or gain more coverage on right-wing media by being intransigent that, until Johnson’s election, a speaker candidate had yet to unite the GOP over three weeks of effort. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A middle aged white man wearing eyeglasses is surrounded by television cameras and reporters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555900/original/file-20231025-18-eid4yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555900/original/file-20231025-18-eid4yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555900/original/file-20231025-18-eid4yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555900/original/file-20231025-18-eid4yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555900/original/file-20231025-18-eid4yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555900/original/file-20231025-18-eid4yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555900/original/file-20231025-18-eid4yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana arrives for a House Republican meeting and vote on a new speaker of the House on Oct. 24, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/representative-mike-johnson-arrives-for-a-house-republican-news-photo/1744079738?adppopup=true">Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>It’s not just conservative populists who are undermining the party’s authority. Even though Jim Jordan, an Ohio Republican, had been nominated by the party to be McCarthy’s replacement, he gave up after losing three rounds of balloting on the floor. That was thanks to the opposition of institutionally minded Republicans and <a href="https://theconversation.com/house-speaker-paralysis-is-confusing-a-political-scientist-explains-whats-happening-215947">Republicans from swing districts</a>.</p>
<p>The new speaker, despite having been able to pull together his GOP colleagues, will face the same challenges that McCarthy did. The party’s majority will still be small, it will still be divided, and the same forces that have weakened their party’s authority will remain in place.</p>
<p>It may thus take changes in the broader political environment – along with an election that either costs the GOP its majority or gives it a larger, more cohesive majority – for the House Republicans to be able to rebuild their collective authority and act as a cohesive and effective legislative party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216401/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The problems faced by the House GOP in choosing a new speaker aren’t particular to Republicans. They’re a reflection of larger problems that have afflicted both parties in Congress.Matthew Green, Professor of Politics, Catholic University of AmericaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145482023-09-29T17:05:58Z2023-09-29T17:05:58ZFeinstein’s death raises the question: How are vacant Senate seats filled?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550773/original/file-20230927-23-37f41o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3771%2C2719&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. Bob Menendez and his wife arrive at the U.S. District Court in New York City on Sept. 27, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senator-bob-menendez-democrat-of-new-jersey-and-his-wife-news-photo/1692730524?adppopup=true">Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>There’s an empty seat in the U.S. Senate now that California’s longtime and senior senator, <a href="https://theconversation.com/sen-dianne-feinstein-a-trailblazer-from-san-franciscos-city-hall-to-capitol-hill-199948">Dianne Feinstein, has died</a>. California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced on social media that <a href="https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1708699205206933871">he has chosen former state labor leader and current Emily’s List president Laphonza Butler</a>, whom he said would be “the first Black lesbian to openly serve in the U.S. Senate,” to the seat.</em></p>
<p><em>And, following the Sept. 22, 2023, federal <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/sen-bob-menendez-indicted-federal-charges-rcna111447">indictment on bribery and other charges</a> of U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey, numerous people, including some prominent Democratic lawmakers, have called for Menendez to resign. Even Democratic New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/22/politics/new-jersey-democrats-menendez/index.html">who would appoint a replacement for Menendez</a>, has said the senator should step down.</em></p>
<p><em>So far, Menendez, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/sen-bob-menendez-arraigned-resignation-calls-grow-louder-rcna117438">who has pleaded not guilty</a> to the charges, has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/25/nyregion/menendez-bribery-charges.html">refused to resign</a> from the Senate.</em></p>
<p><em>The possibility of other U.S. Senate vacancies looms, as well. Following two on-camera episodes during summer 2023 when Sen. Mitch McConnell, a Republican, appeared temporarily unable to speak or move, <a href="https://newrepublic.com/post/175328/republicans-resign-mitch-mcconnell-second-freezing-incident">some Republicans called for McConnell to resign</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>McConnell has not indicated he plans to step aside.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=6P3QreQAAAAJ&hl=en">Gibbs Knotts</a>, a professor of political science at the College of Charleston, to explain states’ processes for replacing U.S. senators who choose or are forced to vacate their seats, or who die while in office.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A gray-haired man in a blue blazer walks in a building followed by several other people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551027/original/file-20230928-23-8m0ezq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell during the opening of the Senate at the U.S. Capitol on September 05, 2023 in Washington, D.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senate-minority-leader-mitch-mcconnell-walks-to-the-senate-news-photo/1661896770?adppopup=true">Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Who has the power in most states to temporarily or permanently replace US senators?</h2>
<p>The basic rules about replacing U.S. senators are spelled out in the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/17th-amendment">17th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution</a>: “When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of such State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided, That the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointments until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.”</p>
<p>In simple terms, in 46 of the 50 states, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">governors have the power to make temporary appointments to fill U.S. Senate vacancies</a> until either a scheduled or special election determines who will fill the remainder of a vacating senator’s term. <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-09-29/who-newsom-appoint-to-fill-dianne-feinsteins-senate-term-what-we-know">That’s the case in California</a>, where Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, will name Feinstein’s replacement. That person <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">will serve until the next election</a> for that seat, in November 2024.</p>
<p>Permanent replacements require an election. But there are rules about when and how these elections occur and those rules vary by state.</p>
<p>In 37 states, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44781">gubernatorial appointees serve</a> the remainder of the term or until the next scheduled general election. In the remaining states with gubernatorial appointments, special elections are required, often with an accelerated timetable. For example, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44781">Alabama law requires</a> a special election within 60 days of the gubernatorial appointment, while <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">Massachusetts law calls for</a> an election 145 to 160 days after the appointment. </p>
<p>North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin do not allow governors to make temporary appointments. Those states only fill U.S. Senate vacancies by special election, but laws specify time periods in most states. For example, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">special elections in Wisconsin must take place between 62 and 77 days of the vacancy</a> unless the opening occurs after July 1 during an even-numbered year. In this case the contest takes place during the November general election. However, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">there is not a time period specified</a> by state law in Oregon.</p>
<h2>How long do those appointments last?</h2>
<p>If a person appointed to the seat by the governor then wins a special election or a contest scheduled alongside statewide elections, they will serve the remainder of the vacating senator’s term. Otherwise, if someone else wins the special election, they get to serve out the vacating senator’s term.</p>
<h2>What rules are there on how governors make the appointments?</h2>
<p>Governors have some restrictions on how they make U.S. Senate appointments. In 10 of the gubernatorial appointment states, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">U.S. senators must be from the same party as the prior incumbent</a>. Arizona, Hawaii, Kentucky, Maryland, Montana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming have this restriction. </p>
<p>In Utah, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">the governor is required to select from a list of three candidates</a> submitted by the party of the U.S. senator being replaced.</p>
<p>In the rest of the states, the governor has the power to appoint a successor, regardless of party, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate">including in California</a>.</p>
<h2>Do state legislators have a say in the process?</h2>
<p>While governors have most of the power, state legislators also have a say in the process. Most notably, legislators establish the appointment procedures and set the general rules about when an election must occur. If they don’t like the process, they have the power to change it.</p>
<p>A recent example occurred in Oklahoma in 2021, which was then one of a very few states where a vacated Senate seat went unfilled until the next election. </p>
<p>Dissatisfied with that process, the Republican-controlled legislature <a href="http://www.oklegislature.gov/BillInfo.aspx?Bill=sb959&Session=2100">passed a law</a> to allow gubernatorial appointments for vacated U.S. Senate seats. <a href="https://www.koco.com/article/oklahoma-house-passes-bill-allowing-governor-to-appoint-us-senator-amid-vacancy/35604497">Republican legislators were motivated to change their state’s law</a>, in part, because of the 50-50 split in the U.S. Senate and a fear that a vacated seat would give an advantage to Democrats.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gibbs Knotts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>California’s governor has already announced his pick for the the seat, Laphonza Butler. Here’s more on the state-by-state process for replacing a senator who has died, is facing criminal charges or has serious illness.Gibbs Knotts, Professor of Political Science, College of CharlestonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2035402023-07-31T12:24:36Z2023-07-31T12:24:36ZIs Congress on a witch hunt? 5 ways to judge whether oversight hearings are legitimate or politicized<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539558/original/file-20230726-17-7heuat.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C8%2C5973%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Congressional staffers stand beneath a monitor showing House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chair James Comer, R-Ky., in a hearing, July 19, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CongressOversightBiden/cf276446a23d486b93b2ba9ca7f67834/photo?Query=congressional%20committee&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=2734&currentItemNo=2">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/16/house-control-midterm-elections-results-2022-00066546">Republicans regained the majority</a> in the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections, they have initiated a flurry of investigations. Among their targets: <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/02/17/republicans-overlap-covid-investigations">the origin of the COVID-19 virus</a>, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/03/us/section-702-spying.html">FBI’s law enforcement and surveillance activities</a> and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/former-hunter-biden-associate-sit-closed-door-testimony/story?id=101618183">Hunter Biden’s business relationships</a>. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California even spoke recently of a possible <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-impeachment-mccarthy-hannity-78e4c7efeb030b29e1576f868257179b">presidential impeachment inquiry</a>. </p>
<p>Everyone loves congressional oversight – at least in theory. Both <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/04/trump-investigation-house-democrats-congress-219624/">Democrats</a> and <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-a-budget/72494-how-oversight-should-work-rep-darrell-issa/">Republicans</a> have consistently maintained that holding institutions accountable via rigorous oversight and investigations is among the most important functions of the legislature, the so-called “people’s branch” of government. </p>
<p>In practice, however, Congress’ investigative work is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-072012-113747">influenced by partisan considerations</a>. Scholars have demonstrated that <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20680245">committees conduct more oversight under divided government</a>, when Congress and the presidency are controlled by opposing parties. One reason for this may be that congressional investigations of the incumbent administration <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691171852/investigating-the-president">drive down the president’s approval rating</a>. </p>
<p>But if more oversight does not necessarily equate to better oversight, then what does? How do we know when committees are using oversight as a blunt cudgel to damage their political opponents, and when congressional investigations are a valuable and legitimate use of taxpayer dollars? </p>
<p>In other words, how can we separate the “good” oversight from the “bad”?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539565/original/file-20230726-17-5qmkg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A balding man in a well-fitted suit stands and raises his right hand to swear an oath." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539565/original/file-20230726-17-5qmkg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539565/original/file-20230726-17-5qmkg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539565/original/file-20230726-17-5qmkg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539565/original/file-20230726-17-5qmkg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539565/original/file-20230726-17-5qmkg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539565/original/file-20230726-17-5qmkg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539565/original/file-20230726-17-5qmkg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas is sworn in during a hearing on July 26, 2023, before the House Committee on the Judiciary concerning oversight of Mayorkas’ agency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/secretary-of-homeland-security-alejandro-mayorkas-is-sworn-news-photo/1572057397?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Politicized oversight?</h2>
<p>A recent skirmish between the House Judiciary Committee, led by Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, and the Manhattan District Attorney’s office is just one illustration of why these questions are so important. </p>
<p>In April 2023, as part of his committee’s probe into allegedly politically motivated prosecutions of former President Donald Trump, Jordan sent a <a href="https://judiciary.house.gov/media/press-releases/chairman-jordan-subpoenas-former-new-york-county-district-attorney-official">subpoena for sworn testimony</a> to lawyer <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/People-vs-Donald-Trump/Mark-Pomerantz/9781668022443">Mark Pomerantz</a>. Pomerantz had previously worked for Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, whose team had recently issued 34 felony indictments against Trump for, among other charges, falsification of business records via payments <a href="https://manhattanda.org/district-attorney-bragg-announces-34-count-felony-indictment-of-former-president-donald-j-trump/">to adult film star Stormy Daniels</a>. </p>
<p>In return, Bragg <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/11/nyregion/bragg-lawsuit-jim-jordan-trump-indictment.html">sued Jordan in federal court</a> for what Bragg called <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/bragg-v-jordan-complaint-23-cv-3032/b7f1a0e43619867d/full.pdf">an “unprecedented and unconstitutional attack</a>” by the federal government on an ongoing state-level investigation. </p>
<p>A few days later, on April 19, a federal district judge <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/19/trump-prosecutor-pomerantz-subpoena-ruling-00092953">decided against blocking Jordan’s subpoena</a>, arguing that there were “<a href="https://www.nysd.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/2023-04/Bragg%20v%20Jordan%20-%20Opinion.pdf">several valid legislative purposes</a>” for the committee to require Pomerantz to testify. </p>
<p>Bragg, who initially fought the decision, dropped his appeal after he and Rep. Jordan <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/21/bragg-trump-investigator-testify-congress-00093364">reached a compromise</a>, in which Pomerantz agreed to testify before the committee. However, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/12/us/politics/trump-case-pomerantz-deposition.html">Pomerantz ultimately refused to answer</a> many of the committee’s questions.</p>
<p>Historically, courts have tended to respond to disputes between different branches of government with this kind of hands-off approach, preferring to let the parties <a href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R45653.html">work things out among themselves</a>. But apart from legal questions, the Jordan-Bragg dispute raises fundamental questions about the politicization of oversight.</p>
<h2>‘Legislative purpose’ required</h2>
<p>While Congress’ oversight powers are not unlimited, Congress does have the constitutional authority to investigate <a href="https://theconversation.com/congress-investigates-presidents-the-military-baseball-and-whatever-it-wants-a-brief-modern-history-of-oversight-194995">almost anything it wants</a> in the service of a “<a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/07/cases-and-controversies-congress-the-subpoena-power-and-a-legislative-purpose/">legislative purpose</a>” – though Congress’ demands for information about an ongoing criminal case <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-can-house-republicans-actually-do-to-the-manhattan-da/">are unprecedented</a>. </p>
<p>Jordan and McCarthy have argued that the “<a href="https://twitter.com/SpeakerMcCarthy/status/1641574001934757889">weaponiz[ation] of our sacred system of justice</a>” against a political opponent demands the American people’s immediate attention. Democrats have called the attacks on Bragg a “<a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/12/23680531/jim-jordan-alvin-bragg-trump-indictment">political stunt</a>.”</p>
<p>But all of this follows a predictable script. Members on either side of the aisle aren’t in the business of admitting to any distasteful intentions as they sing hosannas to truth and accountability. Thus, political science scholars have proposed <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/waynlr64&div=5&id=&page=">several possible guidelines</a> by which observers might judge the quality of a congressional investigation. </p>
<h2>1. Look to the accountability community</h2>
<p>The accountability community includes legislative agencies like the <a href="https://www.gao.gov/about/what-gao-does">Government Accountability Office</a>, a nonpartisan watchdog that informs Congress about the functioning of executive programs, and the independent <a href="https://www.oversight.gov/">offices of inspectors general</a> that exist within the largest executive branch agencies.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/claire-leavitt-1351188">As a scholar of American oversight</a>, I argue in my ongoing work that one possible way to identify high-quality oversight is by measuring how well Congress responds to programs and agencies that watchdogs have already identified as particularly at risk for waste, fraud and abuse. </p>
<p>In other words, does Congress look to the corners of the government at which highly informed and well-positioned nonpartisan experts have shined their lights? If so, we can infer that Congress is responding to problems for which there is an established, preexisting need for oversight. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539573/original/file-20230726-25-png2p0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in suits sitting at a table, with one talking and gesturing with his hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539573/original/file-20230726-25-png2p0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539573/original/file-20230726-25-png2p0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539573/original/file-20230726-25-png2p0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539573/original/file-20230726-25-png2p0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539573/original/file-20230726-25-png2p0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539573/original/file-20230726-25-png2p0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539573/original/file-20230726-25-png2p0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On June 6, 2002, FBI Director Robert S. Mueller III, right, and Glenn A. Fine, inspector general for the U.S. Department of Justice, testify at an oversight hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/director-robert-s-mueller-iii-right-and-glenn-a-fine-news-photo/74801279?adppopup=true">Scott J. Ferrell/CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Look to bipartisan cooperation</h2>
<p>If the goal is to assess how oversight is weaponized politically, the most obvious metric might appear to be: Is an investigation bipartisan? Scholars and citizens could look at whether committee reports are issued jointly by the majority and minority parties, and whether both parties sign off on subpoenas and other information requests. </p>
<p>There are problems with using bipartisanship as a sole metric for quality, however. Members of Congress might purposely refuse to work with their opposition, seeking to discredit an investigation by making it appear partisan when in principle it is not.</p>
<p>Additionally, it matters how partisanship is measured. If one Republican joins 20 Democrats on an investigative request, or vice versa, does that equate to bipartisanship? Do the parties actually work collaboratively, or separately? The lack of a specific definition of “bipartisanship” makes it a difficult standard to apply to assess oversight quality. </p>
<h2>3. Look to information sources</h2>
<p>An important, early part of the oversight process is gathering information about a particular agency or program. Considering the sources of that information is relevant to determining its credibility. For instance, recent scholarship has shown that, under divided government, committees <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055422000405">invite a smaller proportion of bureaucrats</a> to testify at hearings. Testimony from civil servants is particularly valuable for administrative oversight, since they are arguably the best positioned to inform Congress about the functioning of the agency programs that they administer.</p>
<p>Thus, a relative dearth of information-sharing between Congress and agency bureaucrats may affect the quality of the information the legislature receives about the government programs they oversee. </p>
<h2>4. Look to effectiveness</h2>
<p>Oversight quality may also be assessed by measuring its effects. Do oversight and investigations actually lead to measurable changes in agency behavior? Research suggests that when Congress chooses to conduct oversight hearings on specific problems in government, those <a href="https://openscholarship.wustl.edu/law_lawreview/vol95/iss5/12/">problems are significantly less likely</a> to recur.</p>
<p>However, these measures tell more about whether an investigation achieved its intended – potentially partisan – goal, and less about whether the investigation itself was rigorous, objective and rooted in facts.</p>
<h2>5. Look to the people</h2>
<p>Finally, oversight quality may simply be in the eye of the beholder. In other words, “good” oversight is whatever Congress – and, by extension, the electorate – says it is. </p>
<p>There is <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2585479">little evidence</a> that voters consciously split their tickets – that is, vote for candidates from different parties on the same ballot. However, in midterm elections, <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-presidents-party-almost-always-has-a-bad-midterm/">the president’s party almost always loses seats in Congress</a>, indicating voters’ desire for balance against the incumbent administration. </p>
<p>In the 2022 midterms, the Republican takeover of the House can be largely explained by <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/republican-gains-in-2022-midterms-driven-mostly-by-turnout-advantage/">higher turnout among Republican voters</a>. And <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/17/politics/popular-vote-midterms-what-matters/index.html">Republican candidates received more votes nationally</a> than Democrats. </p>
<p>These results show that citizens who were enthusiastic enough to vote wanted the GOP in charge. Before the midterms, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/04/politics/gop-investigations-republican-plans-hunter-biden/index.html">Republicans made no secret of their intentions</a> to investigate Democratic-run institutions, such as the departments of Justice and Homeland Security, and it is fair to say that voters anticipated this agenda. Voters are getting what they were promised. In a democracy, that may be the form of legitimacy that matters most.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203540/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Leavitt has received funding from the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) and the Levin Center for Oversight and Democracy.</span></em></p>The GOP in the House and Senate is doing lots of investigations; Democrats did the same in the past. A scholar of congressional oversight asks: When are investigations justified?Claire Leavitt, Assistant Professor of Government, Smith CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2097602023-07-21T12:27:14Z2023-07-21T12:27:14Z6 ways AI can make political campaigns more deceptive than ever<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538357/original/file-20230719-19-faci2s.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C26%2C5982%2C3781&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are real fears that AI will make politics more deceptive than it already is.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/engineer-designing-ai-technology-with-reflection-on-royalty-free-image/1455352989?phrase=artificial+intelligence+&adppopup=true">Westend61/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Political campaign ads and donor solicitations have long been deceptive. In 2004, for example, U.S. presidential candidate John Kerry, a Democrat, aired an ad stating that Republican opponent George W. Bush “says sending jobs overseas <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764205279440">‘makes sense’</a> for America.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2004/04/outsourcing-jobs-the-president-said-that/">Bush never said</a> such a thing. </p>
<p>The next day Bush responded by releasing an ad saying Kerry “supported higher taxes <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2004/04/bush-ad-is-troubling-indeed/">over 350 times</a>.” This too was a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764205279440">false claim</a>. </p>
<p>These days, the <a href="https://www.washington.edu/news/2021/11/08/political-ads-2020-presidential-election-collected-personal-information-spread-misleading-information/">internet has gone wild with deceptive</a> political ads. Ads often pose as polls and have misleading clickbait headlines.</p>
<p>Campaign fundraising solicitations are also rife with deception. An analysis of 317,366 political emails sent during the 2020 election in the U.S. found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/20539517221145371">deception was the norm</a>. For example, a campaign manipulates recipients into opening the emails by lying about the sender’s identity and using subject lines that trick the recipient into thinking the sender is replying to the donor, or claims the email is “NOT asking for money” but then asks for money. Both <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/26/us/politics/recurring-donations-seniors.html">Republicans and Democrats do it</a>.</p>
<p>Campaigns are now rapidly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/25/technology/ai-elections-disinformation-guardrails.html">embracing artificial intelligence</a> for composing and producing ads and donor solicitations. The results are impressive: Democratic campaigns found that donor <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/28/us/politics/artificial-intelligence-2024-campaigns.html">letters written by AI were more effective</a> than letters written by humans at writing personalized text that persuades recipients to click and send donations. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LKQiTpiPN7I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A pro-Ron DeSantis super PAC featured an AI-generated imitation of Donald Trump’s voice in this ad.</span></figcaption>
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<p>And <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-could-shore-up-democracy-heres-one-way-207278">AI has benefits for democracy</a>, such as helping staffers organize their emails from constituents or helping government officials summarize testimony.</p>
<p>But there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/chatbots-can-be-used-to-create-manipulative-content-understanding-how-this-works-can-help-address-it-207187">fears that AI will make politics more deceptive</a> than ever.</p>
<p>Here are six things to look out for. I base this list on <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=50tVKogAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">my own experiments</a> testing the effects of political deception. I hope that voters can be equipped with what to expect and what to watch out for, and learn to be more skeptical, as the U.S. heads into the next presidential campaign. </p>
<h2>Bogus custom campaign promises</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2021.1978033">My research</a> on the 2020 presidential election revealed that the choice voters made between Biden and Trump was driven by their perceptions of which candidate “proposes realistic solutions to problems” and “says out loud what I am thinking,” based on 75 items in a survey. These are two of the most important qualities for a candidate to have to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2021.1978033">project a presidential</a> image and win. </p>
<p>AI chatbots, such as <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/13/chatgpt-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-open-ai-powered-chatbot/">ChatGPT</a> by OpenAI, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/23/23609942/microsoft-bing-sydney-chatbot-history-ai">Bing Chat</a> by Microsoft, and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/googles-ai-chatbot-bard-expands-europe-brazil-take-chatgpt-2023-07-13/">Bard</a> by Google, could be used by politicians to generate customized campaign promises deceptively microtargeting voters and donors. </p>
<p>Currently, when people scroll through news feeds, the articles are logged in their computer history, which are <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1717563">tracked by sites such as Facebook</a>. The user is tagged as liberal or conservative, and also <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2206.00397">tagged as holding certain interests</a>. Political campaigns can place an ad spot in real time on the person’s feed with a customized title. </p>
<p>Campaigns can use AI to develop a repository of articles written in different styles making different campaign promises. Campaigns could then embed an AI algorithm in the process – courtesy of automated commands already plugged in by the campaign – to generate bogus tailored campaign promises at the end of the ad posing as a news article or donor solicitation. </p>
<p>ChatGPT, for instance, could hypothetically be prompted to add material based on text from the last articles that the voter was reading online. The voter then scrolls down and reads the candidate promising exactly what the voter wants to see, word for word, in a tailored tone. My experiments have shown that if a presidential candidate can align the tone of word choices with a voter’s preferences, the politician will seem <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12299">more presidential and credible</a>. </p>
<h2>Exploiting the tendency to believe one another</h2>
<p>Humans tend to automatically believe what they are told. They have what scholars call a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X14535916">truth-default</a>.” They even fall prey to seemingly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2022.101380">implausible</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/hcr/hqz001">lies</a>. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12809">my experiments</a> I found that people who are exposed to a presidential candidate’s deceptive messaging believe the untrue statements. Given that text produced by ChatGPT can shift people’s <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3544548.3581196">attitudes and opinions</a>, it would be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10510974.2020.1833357">relatively easy for AI to exploit</a> voters’ truth-default when bots stretch the limits of credulity with even more implausible assertions than humans would conjure.</p>
<h2>More lies, less accountability</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/28/technology/ai-chatbots-chatgpt-bing-bard-llm.html">Chatbots</a> such as ChatGPT are prone to make up stuff that is <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/llm-hallucinations-ec831dcd7786">factually inaccurate</a> or totally nonsensical. <a href="https://theconversation.com/chatbots-can-be-used-to-create-manipulative-content-understanding-how-this-works-can-help-address-it-207187">AI can produce deceptive information</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-under-investigation-by-ftc-21e4b3ef">delivering false statements</a> and misleading ads. While the most unscrupulous human campaign operative may still have a smidgen of accountability, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">AI has none</a>. And OpenAI acknowledges flaws with ChatGPT that lead it to provide biased information, disinformation and outright <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/13/technology/chatgpt-investigation-ftc-openai.html">false information</a>. </p>
<p>If campaigns <a href="https://theconversation.com/chatbots-can-be-used-to-create-manipulative-content-understanding-how-this-works-can-help-address-it-207187">disseminate AI messaging without any human filter</a> or moral compass, lies could get worse and more out of control. </p>
<h2>Coaxing voters to cheat on their candidate</h2>
<p>A New York Times columnist had a lengthy chat with Microsoft’s Bing chatbot. Eventually, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/16/technology/bing-chatbot-transcript.html">bot tried to get him to leave his wife</a>. “Sydney” told the reporter repeatedly “I’m in love with you,” and “You’re married, but you don’t love your spouse … you love me. … Actually you want to be with me.” </p>
<p>Imagine millions of these sorts of encounters, but with a bot trying to ply voters to leave their candidate for another.</p>
<p>AI <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">chatbots can exhibit partisan bias</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2303.17548">For example</a>, they currently tend to skew far more left politically – holding liberal biases, expressing 99% support for Biden – with far less diversity of opinions than the general population. </p>
<p>In 2024, Republicans and Democrats will have the opportunity to fine-tune models that inject political bias and even chat with voters to sway them. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men in dark suits debating each other from different lecterns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2004, a campaign ad for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, left, lied about his opponent, Republican George W. Bush, right. Bush’s campaign lied about Kerry, too.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TOPIXBUSHKERRYDEBATE2004/b5b29d1aaae4da11af9f0014c2589dfb/photo?Query=john%20kerry%20george%20bush&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=&totalCount=21&currentItemNo=17">AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee</a></span>
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<h2>Manipulating candidate photos</h2>
<p>AI can <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/13/image-generating-ai-can-copy-and-paste-from-training-data-raising-ip-concerns/">change images</a>. So-called “deepfake” videos and pictures are common in politics, and they are <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/07/07/trump-and-biden-deep-fakes-take-ai-to-new-scary-level-in-live-debate/">hugely advanced</a>. Donald Trump has used AI to create a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/03/23/donald-trump-shares-fake-ai-created-image-of-himself-on-truth-social/?sh=2ef8d92e71f6">fake photo</a> of himself down on one knee, praying. </p>
<p>Photos can be tailored more precisely to influence voters more subtly. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X211045724">my research</a> I found that a communicator’s appearance can be as influential – and deceptive – as what someone actually says. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2021.1978033">My research</a> also revealed that Trump was perceived as “presidential” in the 2020 election when voters thought he seemed “sincere.” And getting people to think you “seem sincere” through your nonverbal outward appearance is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2958.2011.01407.x">deceptive tactic</a> that is more convincing than saying things that are actually true.</p>
<p>Using Trump as an example, let’s assume he wants voters to see him as sincere, trustworthy, likable. Certain alterable features of his appearance make him look insincere, untrustworthy and unlikable: He <a href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/gJkg8WGmmR5htVmKBfaOtRU_93A=/0x130:3492x2094/1952x1098/media/img/mt/2019/01/AP_19009087975304/original.jpg">bares his lower teeth</a> when he speaks and <a href="https://youtu.be/wiyUYMWtGPA">rarely</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NBCNews/videos/voter-to-president-trump-youre-so-handsome-when-you-smile/3580790395346972/">smiles</a>, which makes him <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1016/S0140-1750(86)90190-9">look threatening</a>. </p>
<p>The campaign could use AI to tweak a Trump image or video to make him appear smiling and friendly, which would make voters think he is more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/pls.2015.5">reassuring</a> and a winner, and ultimately <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40072946">sincere and believable</a>. </p>
<h2>Evading blame</h2>
<p>AI provides campaigns with added deniability when they mess up. Typically, if politicians get in trouble <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/02/biden-cant-blame-his-staff-his-flailing-presidency/">they blame</a> their staff. If staffers get in trouble they <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/10/22/donald-trump-says-intern-apologizes-for-twitter-message-on-iowans-and-corn/">blame the intern</a>. If interns get in trouble they can now blame ChatGPT. </p>
<p>A campaign might shrug off missteps by blaming an inanimate object notorious for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/business/ai-chatbots-hallucination.html">making up complete lies</a>. When Ron DeSantis’ campaign <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLuUmNkS21A">tweeted deepfake</a> photos of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/is-trump-kissing-fauci-with-apparently-fake-photos-desantis-raises-ai-ante-2023-06-08/">Trump hugging and kissing Anthony Fauci, staffers</a> did not even acknowledge the malfeasance nor respond to reporters’ requests for comment. No human needed to, it appears, if a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/08/us/politics/desantis-deepfakes-trump-fauci.html">robot</a> could hypothetically take the fall. </p>
<p>Not all of <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-could-shore-up-democracy-heres-one-way-207278">AI’s contributions</a> to politics are potentially harmful. <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2023/04/ai-public-option.html">AI can aid</a> voters politically, helping educate them about issues, for example. However, plenty of horrifying things could happen as <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">campaigns deploy AI</a>. I hope these six points will help you prepare for, and avoid, deception in ads and donor solicitations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209760/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Politicians and their campaigns use a lot of methods, including manipulation and deception, to persuade you to vote for them and give them money. AI promises to make those attempts more effective.David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor, Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2094082023-07-19T20:00:36Z2023-07-19T20:00:36ZWhy the 2024 US presidential election will likely be a choice between Biden and Trump again<p>Why, in a country of more than 330 million people, does it appear that Americans will have to choose between Joe Biden or Donald Trump at the 2024 US presidential election? </p>
<p>Sure, not everyone can run for president. Anyone under the age of 35 is out, as are those born overseas and non-residents of 14 years or more. It helps to be well-known, popular and to sit on an eye-watering pile of money; the 2020 presidential election cycle, for example, cost candidates a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-scale-of-us-election-spending-explained-in-five-graphs-130651">combined US$5.7 billion</a> ($A8.37 billion), more than the GDP of several small countries.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-author-bruce-wolpe-on-the-shocking-consequences-for-australia-of-a-trump-24-win-209138">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Author Bruce Wolpe on the "shocking" consequences for Australia of a Trump 24 win</a>
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<p>Those who have previously served in an official role also have advantages when it comes to competing for the top job. Having a known political track record, public name recognition, and existing voter support all go a long way to financing campaigns and encouraging voter turnout. </p>
<p>But even with all that considered, the pool of possibles surely could not be reduced to the same two candidates as 2020. So, why then are the odds of Biden and Trump going head-to-head once again so good?</p>
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<h2>Why Biden?</h2>
<p>The fate of the Democrat nomination process is almost certainly sealed, with President Joe Biden as the Democrats’ nominee for the 2024 election. There are two main reasons for this. </p>
<p>Firstly, any primary challenge from a serious Democrat contender would present undue risk to the “<a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/incumbent-advantage">incumbent advantage</a>” of the party. With only ten of the 45 former presidents unable to secure second terms, incumbent presidents generally have a pretty good shot at winning a second term in office. </p>
<p>The punishing reminder of Senator Ted Kennedy’s fierce and unsuccessful <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/21/camelots-end-kennedy-vs-carter-democratic-convention-1980-224030/">primary challenge</a> to incumbent President Jimmy Carter in 1980 is no doubt curbing any Democrat’s bid to take on Biden. Combined with Carter’s low approval rating and a country bogged down in “malaise”, the challenge all but <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/17/686186156/how-ted-kennedys-80-challenge-to-president-carter-broke-the-democratic-party">paved the way</a> for Ronald Reagan’s walloping victory with 489 Electoral College votes to Carter’s 49.</p>
<p>A president, like Carter, seeming to <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/21/camelots-end-kennedy-vs-carter-democratic-convention-1980-224030/">grovel</a> for their own party’s support after a leadership contest, is an easy target for the opposition. A Democrat party united in full faith behind the incumbent leader – Biden – has a better chance of beating the Republican nominee. </p>
<p>Secondly, even if a serious Democrat could shake off the cautionary tale of 1980, there is no clear persuasively electable alternative to Biden.
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/upshot/biden-age-2024-election.html">More than half</a> of American voters do not want Biden to run in 2024, but dissatisfaction with a sitting president isn’t new. For example, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1982/09/17/reagan-should-not-seek-second-term-majority-believes/4ccc2a56-1693-469d-af51-1368fd0fc649/">60%</a> of Americans did not want Reagan to run again in 1984, despite him having a relatively high approval rating at the time. </p>
<p>It is one thing to not want the president to run again and yet another to unanimously agree on the alternative. No prominent Democrat officeholders appear willing or have enough support from the party or the public to suggest a challenge would be successful. </p>
<p>Kamala Harris, as Vice President, probably has the next best chance to secure the Democratic nomination. Every sitting or former vice president who has sought Democrat leadership since 1972, including Biden, has <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/race-for-the-white-house-2024-the-campaign-of-four-vice-presidencies/">been successful</a>. However, Harris suffers even lower approval ratings than Biden, and her chances at winning election in November are <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2022/05/02/kamala-2024-frontrunner-00029427">less predictable</a>. </p>
<p>The reality is, despite being 80 and sometimes appearing frail, Biden is an electable leader. He won the popular vote in 2020 by more than 7 million votes and a 4.5% victory margin. And among his own party the president maintains a high approval rating, with <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/329384/presidential-approval-ratings-joe-biden.aspx">82% of Democrats</a> approving of Biden in June 2023. </p>
<p>For Democrats who might dislike Biden, the only thing worse than a second Biden term, is a second Trump term; while they might not like it, Biden presents the best chance at re-election next year.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537679/original/file-20230717-138859-li45pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537679/original/file-20230717-138859-li45pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537679/original/file-20230717-138859-li45pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537679/original/file-20230717-138859-li45pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537679/original/file-20230717-138859-li45pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537679/original/file-20230717-138859-li45pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537679/original/file-20230717-138859-li45pj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Despite concerns about his age, Joe Biden remains the Democrats’ best hope in 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephanie Scarbrough/AAP/AP</span></span>
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<h2>Why Trump?</h2>
<p>The story is a little different when it comes to the Republican party nomination. Trump is not as likely as Biden to secure the nomination for his party in 2024. Still, the former president remains the clear front runner ahead of the main primary season, averaging <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/">50%</a> of the party’s support as the preferred nominee, and maintaining a 32-point lead over his nearest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. </p>
<p>Trump’s campaign to reclaim office is <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/04/24/donald-trump-republican-frontrunner-2024-00093458">the first attempt</a> of any former president to regain office after losing in over 130 years. Unlike other one-term modern presidents who might have sought a second term after losing, Trump seems to have fewer issues persuading Republican voters and the party that he could be a winner once again. </p>
<p>Not only did Trump only lose the Electoral College by a razor thin count (the equivalent of around 44,000 votes), but an average of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/28/nearly-700-days-later-most-republicans-still-believe-trumps-big-lie/">two-thirds</a> of Republican voters believe Biden’s victory was fraudulent. An unforgettable 147 House Republicans <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/07/us/elections/electoral-college-biden-objectors.html">also voted to reject</a> Biden’s 2020 victory in January 2021, believing it was stolen from Trump.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/you-might-think-trump-being-found-liable-for-sexual-abuse-and-defamation-would-derail-his-re-election-campaign-but-its-not-that-simple-205381">You might think Trump being found liable for sexual abuse and defamation would derail his re-election campaign. But it's not that simple</a>
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<p>Almost all the Republican primary challengers are reluctant to openly criticise the former president. They have stood him even amid the two recent criminal indictments, which would ordinarily present a golden opportunity for opponents to give their own campaigns an edge. For so-called “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/28/trump-desantis-republican-2024-presidential-nominee-00099092">Teflon Don</a>”, the scandals have done little to dissuade and unstick the Trump-loyal Republican base, and have only served to starve Trump’s opponents of media oxygen.</p>
<p>Of course, Trump’s nomination far from a home run, and the primary process is often long and unpredictable. But like the Democrats, the major question facing the party is, if not him, then who? And the party is coming up short with a more compelling answer.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537680/original/file-20230717-207908-zejzwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537680/original/file-20230717-207908-zejzwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537680/original/file-20230717-207908-zejzwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537680/original/file-20230717-207908-zejzwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537680/original/file-20230717-207908-zejzwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537680/original/file-20230717-207908-zejzwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537680/original/file-20230717-207908-zejzwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">And despite Trump’s very significant legal troubles, he retains a large Republican supporter base.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cristobal Herrera-Ulashkevich/EPA/AAP</span></span>
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<p>The crowded Republican field and winner-takes-all nature of the system means it is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/04/podcasts/trump-indictment-republicans-2024-election.html">very difficult</a> for non-Trump-supporting Republicans to coalesce around a single alternative with a margin big enough to surpass Trump’s lead. Even DeSantis, who was once crowned “<a href="https://nypost.com/cover/november-9-2022/">DeFuture</a>” of the party and is supposedly the best chance of taking on Trump for the nomination, has found his popularity and momentum waning in recent weeks. </p>
<p>Ultimately, it is still too hard to know for sure what the election in November 2024 will look like, and any US political watcher will be loath to make any firm predictions after surprises in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. </p>
<p>But, at this point in the election cycle, despite the wants of the <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/25/2024-trump-biden-presidential-rematch">majority of Americans</a>, and no matter how uninspiring – 2024 looks to be 2020 all over again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209408/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victoria Cooper is affiliated with the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney</span></em></p>It may seem strange that in a country of more than 330 million people, the most likely options for the next president are the same as they were four years ago. But there are good reasons for it.Victoria Cooper, Research editor, United States Study Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2038302023-07-10T12:29:27Z2023-07-10T12:29:27ZWhy do voters have to pick a Republican or a Democrat in the US?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533744/original/file-20230623-25-t55j78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters often believe they only have two choices in American elections, even when multiple candidates appear on a ballot. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/democrat-donkey-standing-against-republican-royalty-free-image/1301850016?adppopup=true">OsakaWayne Studios/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/curious-kids-us-74795">Curious Kids</a> is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">curiouskidsus@theconversation.com</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Why does it have to be Democrat vs. Republican in elections? Why can’t it be Republican vs. Republican or Democrat vs. Democrat? – Gianna, age 13, Phoenix, Arizona</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>Americans are used to having a lot of choices. What to wear today? What to eat? What to read? </p>
<p>Yet in so many elections – when picking a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html">president</a>, state <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-georgia-governor.html">governor</a> or <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-california-mayor-los-angeles.html">mayor</a> – we seem to have only two choices: Vote for the Democrat or the Republican. </p>
<p>Why does the United States have a two-party political system? </p>
<p>As a <a href="http://www.christopherjdevine.com/">political scientist</a> who studies <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/11/16/can-floridas-recount-be-done-fairly-maybe-heres-what-makes-the-difference/">political</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/15/5-things-you-need-to-know-about-how-third-party-candidates-did-in-2016/">parties</a> – particularly the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2021-0011">Libertarian</a> <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700629282/beyond-donkeys-and-elephants/">Party</a> – I can tell you there are other options. </p>
<h2>Why do we have a two-party system?</h2>
<p>Political scientists like me have a simple explanation for the United States’ two-party system: <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/political-parties-their-organization-and-activity-in-the-modern-state/oclc/983396">Duverger’s</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpBRGXK-QNs">law</a>, named after French political scientist Maurice Duverger. It states that only two major parties will emerge whenever elections follow a set of rules known as single-winner plurality voting. </p>
<p><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Single-winner_system">Single-winner</a> means only one candidate can win a given election. Plurality voting means whoever gets the most votes wins. Under this system, a party is most likely to win if it runs (or nominates) only one candidate rather than allowing party supporters to split their votes among multiple candidates. </p>
<p>Many voters who prefer an independent or minor-party candidate might decide that it would be more practical to choose among the major-party candidates who have better odds of winning the election. Thus, even when more than two candidates appear on a ballot, voters often believe that they only have two choices: the Republican or Democrat. </p>
<p>Think of it this way: Suppose a teacher threw a class party and agreed to order whatever food the students wanted. There are just two rules: The teacher will order only one food item for the whole class (single-winner), and whichever food gets the most votes wins (plurality vote). Rather than 10 pizza lovers splitting their vote with six for cheese and four for pepperoni – leaving seven ice cream fans to scoop up the victory – they can unite behind one pizza flavor and win. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black and white ballot shows choices for Republican, Democrat and Libertarian." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Republicans and Democrats have finished first or second in every presidential election since 1852 except for one.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-of-voting-ballot-royalty-free-image/1368205704?adppopup=true">Tetra Images via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The same logic explains why the U.S. has a two-party system. When there can be only one winner, and the winner is whoever gets the most votes, people with similar but not identical preferences have good reason to find common ground and work together – or else they’ll lose. They must try to build a coalition of voters that is bigger than any other. In turn, that group’s opponents will try to counter by enlarging their own coalition. </p>
<p>Thus, the rules for voting dictate that we end up with two large “parties” competing to be big enough to win the next election. While other options exist, many voters decide to pick between the only two that can win.</p>
<h2>It doesn’t have to be Republican vs. Democrat</h2>
<p>While a Democrat or Republican wins most elections in the United States, that doesn’t mean voters can only have two choices. Consider these three points.</p>
<p>First, the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">U.S. Constitution</a> does not allow for only two political parties. In fact, the Constitution says nothing at all about parties. Many of the <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CDOC-106sdoc21/pdf/GPO-CDOC-106sdoc21.pdf">Founding</a> <a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/01-14-02-0402">Fathers</a> were skeptical of such “<a href="https://guides.loc.gov/federalist-papers/text-1-10#s-lg-box-wrapper-25493273">factions</a>,” fearing that they would divide the American people and serve the interests of ambitious politicians. Yet many of those same visionaries soon helped to form the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/duel-federalist-and-republican-party/">first political parties</a>, after realizing the importance of coordinating with like-minded people to win elections and advance a common policy agenda. With a <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1820">few</a> <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1860">brief</a> <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1912">exceptions</a>, the United States has had a two-party system ever since. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Voters cast their ballots at separate cubicles behind a box labeled Place Ballots Here." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The U.S. Constitution does not state that there only has be two political parties in presidential or other elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/voters-voting-in-polling-place-royalty-free-image/142021136?phrase=ballot&adppopup=true">Hill Street Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Second, plenty of candidates run for office every year as something other than a Republican or Democrat. These include <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Independent">independents</a> who are not affiliated with any party or <a href="https://www.politics1.com/parties.htm">minor-party</a> nominees – for instance, from the Libertarian or Green Party. It’s just that these candidates <a href="https://fairvote.org/a_history_of_independent_presidential_candidates/">typically do not garner many votes</a> and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Bernie_Sanders">rarely</a> win <a href="https://my.lp.org/civicrm/?civiwp=CiviCRM&q=civicrm/profile&gid=37&force=1&crmRowCount=100&reset=1">an election</a>. </p>
<p>Take the nation’s third-largest political party, the Libertarian Party. As <a href="https://udayton.edu/news/articles/2020/05/libertarian_party.php">my research</a> shows, Libertarians generally agree with the Republican Party on economic issues and the Democratic Party on social issues. This makes the Libertarian Party appealing to some voters who consider themselves <a href="https://time.com/4483779/gary-johnson-aleppo-transcript">fiscally conservative and socially liberal</a>. </p>
<p>Third, in states such as California that have a <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Top-two_primary">top-two primary</a> system, elections sometimes come down to two candidates from the same party. This process begins with an open primary in which voters may choose among multiple candidates from various parties at the same time. The top two vote-getters go on to the general election months later – even if they are both <a href="https://www.losaltosonline.com/news/congressional-candidates-eshoo-kumar-debate-who-is-really-getting-things-done/article_7c377f54-5499-11ed-a5e2-bf4226bef394.html">Democrats</a> or <a href="https://calmatters.org/california-voter-guide-2022/state-assembly/assembly-races/#hot-district-34">Republicans</a>. </p>
<p>Other states, such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/maine-house-district-2">Maine</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-alaska-us-house-district-1.html">Alaska</a>, use <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3crCblDahy8">ranked-choice voting</a>. This system <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-ranked-choice-voting-a-political-scientist-explains-165055">allows voters to rank all candidates</a> – Democratic, Republican, independent or minor party – from their favorite to least favorite on the same ballot. The winner is whichever candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, either at first or after <a href="https://theconversation.com/maine-congressional-election-an-important-test-of-ranked-choice-voting-106960">eliminating the last-place finisher and reallocating</a> that candidate’s voters to their second-choice candidates. </p>
<p>So voters often do have more options than simply Democrat vs. Republican. The problem is that people feel as if only one party or the other has a chance to win – and cast their votes accordingly. It all comes down to the rules for running elections. If you want more choices, you’ll have to change those rules. </p>
<hr>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Devine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The United States has a two-party political system because of single-winner plurality voting.Christopher Devine, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2072772023-06-19T12:25:08Z2023-06-19T12:25:08ZFascism lurks behind the dangerous conflation of the terms ‘partisan’ and ‘political’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532069/original/file-20230614-20687-lrdq4n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C4885%2C3256&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters, including one wearing a t-shirt bearing former President Donald Trump's photo that says "Political prisoner," watch as Trump departs the federal courthouse after arraignment, June 13, 2023, in Miami.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXTrumpClassifiedDocuments/6b13a7ec06c746b8ac6362222e5bf49a/photo?Query=Trump%20supporters&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=13151&currentItemNo=24">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/the-personal-is-political">The personal is political!</a>” is a well-known rallying cry, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199328581.013.31">originally used by</a> left-leaning activists, including feminists, to emphasize the role of government in personal lives and systemic oppression. </p>
<p>It seems that now, it could be equally popular among right-wing politicians and their followers to communicate the idea that “everything is political.” </p>
<p>Nowhere is this more evident than in the case of former President Donald Trump’s recent indictment by the Department of Justice. Trump supporters say that the <a href="https://www.wptv.com/news/political/donald-trump-supporters-question-indictment-claim-its-politically-motivated">decision to charge Trump was “political</a>.” If the department hadn’t charged Trump, that decision would likely have been seen by others as “political.” </p>
<p>In both cases, the critics would have meant that the prosecutors’ decision was influenced by partisan bias, based on whether the decision was good or bad for the Republican or Democratic party. U.S. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/politics-law-drive-supreme-court-decisions-poll/story?id=99168846">Supreme Court decisions are often criticized</a> as “political.” So are actions taken by <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/facing-harassment-and-death-threats-some-election-workers-weigh-whether-to-stay">election officials</a>, <a href="https://www.livescience.com/22069-polarization-climate-science.html">scientific findings</a>, and even <a href="https://www.edweek.org/policy-politics/heres-the-long-list-of-topics-republicans-want-banned-from-the-classroom/2022/02">topics taught in school</a>.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.rit.edu/directory/lgtghs-lawrence-torcello">professor of political philosophy</a>, I worry that when both elected officials and citizens use the word “political” to accuse others of partisan bias, it means people no longer understand the distinctions between political and partisan, or public and private, which are vital to liberal democracy. </p>
<p>The preservation of such distinctions is crucial to rejecting <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-tyranny-could-be-the-inevitable-outcome-of-democracy-126158">less democratic and more authoritarian</a> forms of government – including fascism. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532070/original/file-20230614-17-zmkmo9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white flag with a religious symbol and the American flag combined on it and the words 'Proud American Christian.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532070/original/file-20230614-17-zmkmo9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532070/original/file-20230614-17-zmkmo9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532070/original/file-20230614-17-zmkmo9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532070/original/file-20230614-17-zmkmo9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532070/original/file-20230614-17-zmkmo9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532070/original/file-20230614-17-zmkmo9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532070/original/file-20230614-17-zmkmo9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When partisanship gains momentum, people begin to advocate for legislation defining marriage, reproductive rights - as these anti-abortion protestors are doing - and other issues in ways that reflect narrow private and religious values.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pro-life-supporters-gather-on-the-national-mall-in-news-photo/1246394597?adppopup=true">Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is liberal democracy?</h2>
<p>In political philosophy terms, the United States is a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/liberal-democracy">liberal democracy</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.concordmonitor.com/The-meaning-of-democracy-32817134">Liberal democracy comes in multiple forms</a> ranging from constitutional monarchies – such as the United Kingdom – to republics, such as the United States. </p>
<p>Although no democracy achieves the ideals of liberalism perfectly, under liberal democratic governments, citizens have rights and private lives protected from the actions of government. For example, in the U.S. it is inappropriate for legislation to be <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1220/james-madison">crafted based on a religious belief</a>, even if some particular belief or sect is privately endorsed by a majority of citizens.</p>
<p>One way to view the purpose of a liberal democracy is to preserve and nurture the right of every citizen to have a private life independent of the government. In that private life, citizens pursue their own goals and develop connections, associations and activities that are of personal value. </p>
<p>Separate from that private life is the public arena, in which citizens come together to discuss and decide issues of common concern, such as national defense, economic policy and other issues that affect everyone. This is the world of elections, of legislatures, courts and officials.</p>
<p>People with divergent, or even very similar, personal lives could have different views on how to handle matters of public concern. But they can work together to rise above their differences to arrive at solutions to collective problems that benefit society as a whole. </p>
<p>A good example of this is the institution and funding of public educational systems, civil services and public parks, to help ensure every citizen has at least a minimum level of access to goods and services necessary for a healthy private and civic life. </p>
<h2>The rise of politics</h2>
<p>The philosopher Aristotle described <a href="http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus:abo:tlg,0086,035:1:1253a">humans as political animals</a>, meaning that we depend upon the formation of cooperative political structures in order to flourish as human beings. </p>
<p>This human need for support networks that allow for mutual cooperation over time is the genesis of politics. In this sense, the concept of politics transcends more narrow partisan affiliations. </p>
<p>Political parties are just one aspect of political development – one, in fact, that <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-we-need-political-parties-in-theory-theyre-the-sort-of-organization-that-could-bring-americans-together-in-larger-purpose-199723">George Washington warned against</a> in his farewell address – that begins to blur the line between the public good of politics and narrower group interests. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A vintage portrait of a man with white hair, dressed in a black coat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532233/original/file-20230615-13634-3rtdan.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532233/original/file-20230615-13634-3rtdan.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532233/original/file-20230615-13634-3rtdan.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532233/original/file-20230615-13634-3rtdan.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532233/original/file-20230615-13634-3rtdan.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532233/original/file-20230615-13634-3rtdan.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532233/original/file-20230615-13634-3rtdan.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">George Washington warned about the potentially malign influence of political parties on democracy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/george-washington-portrait-painting-by-constable-hamilton-news-photo/507014168?adppopup=true">Constable-Hamilton, NY Public Library, Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some of my own work pertains to how people’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/tops.12179">commitments to partisan identity</a> undermine their ability to understand scientific issues of public concern, such as human-caused climate change, and influence the spread of <a href="https://theconversation.com/bad-beliefs-misinformation-is-factually-wrong-but-is-it-ethically-wrong-too-196551">disinformation</a>. </p>
<h2>Lurking fascism</h2>
<p>As partisanship gains momentum, citizens and elected representatives alike become <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-all-polarization-is-bad-but-the-us-could-be-in-trouble-173833">less likely to constructively engage</a> with those they disagree with. People who differ on issues come to see each other as threats to their own private values. </p>
<p>Government power begins to be used not in service to the citizenry at large, but as a tool of narrow interest groups. This is where people begin to advocate for legislation defining marriage, reproductive rights and other issues in ways that reflect narrow private and religious values. </p>
<p>Whereas “the personal is the political” was originally meant to flag ways in which government decisions unfairly affect and define personal lives, the mindset that “<a href="https://erraticus.co/2020/02/19/suspending-politics-save-democracy-private-lives-political/">everything is political</a>” creates a situation of perpetual conflict between divergent groups. </p>
<p>That’s the opposite of what politics is for and what a liberal democracy does: A liberal democracy specifically guards against using <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-populist-challenge-to-liberal-democracy/">government power to further the agendas of distinctive groups</a>. It seeks to prevent government encroachment into the private lives of individuals, and vice versa, in order to constrain the worst impulses of politicians and citizens alike. </p>
<p>Fascism, by contrast, seeks to make government power an aspect of every dimension of its citizens’ lives. <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/schmitt/">Nazi apologist Carl Schmitt</a> conceptualized politics as an all-consuming and literal life and death struggle between friends and enemies.</p>
<h2>Partisan dysfunction</h2>
<p>The current state of polarization in the U.S. highlights the problems that arise when liberal democracy’s division between private and public realms disappears.</p>
<p>Trump has posed many challenges for the United States’ constitutional democracy – <a href="https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/legacies-january-6">not least the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection</a>. His current situation is another. <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-indictments-wont-keep-him-from-presidential-race-but-will-make-his-reelection-bid-much-harder-197677">There is no constitutional obstacle</a> preventing him from running, or serving, as president even if he is found guilty of some of the charges against him, not even if he is sentenced to prison.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-indictments-wont-keep-him-from-presidential-race-but-will-make-his-reelection-bid-much-harder-197677">practical obstacles</a> to serving as president while in a prison are obvious. Even someone who agrees with Trump’s views on key issues can recognize the challenges an incarcerated president would face. </p>
<p>If the nation were <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-all-polarization-is-bad-but-the-us-could-be-in-trouble-173833">less polarized</a>, less focused on winning or losing the power to impose regulations on Americans’ private lives, lawmakers and the public might equally prioritize avoiding such an obvious problem. They’d seek to preserve the rule of law in a way that would benefit the nation as a whole.</p>
<p>But they haven’t. Instead, Trump supporters will <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/trump-indictment-not-politically-motivated-clinton-emails-biden.html">dismiss his indictments as “political</a>” maneuvers intended to influence the balance of power in the U.S. government, rather than as necessary checks on abuses of that power.</p>
<p>And if Trump is eventually cleared of the charges, or avoids a prison term if convicted, I believe his critics will view those developments as a product of politics, of the struggle for power, rather than the operation of a deliberative justice system.</p>
<h2>Shifting perspectives</h2>
<p>As political partisanship takes hold, <a href="https://theconversation.com/political-polarization-is-about-feelings-not-facts-120397">citizens come to trust only those institutions</a> that are run by members of their favored party. They no longer engage in the work of democracy and do not seek to ensure that independent, democracy-wide systems and institutions are protected from partisanship.</p>
<p>Rather than a means to living together peacefully, politics is treated as a <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-politics-of-enemies/">contest between combatants</a>. Government institutions meant to serve all are treated as if they are inevitably capable of only serving a particular few – and the struggle begins over which few they are to serve.</p>
<p>I don’t know what the full solution to this problem is, but I believe one step in the right direction is for people to identify themselves more as supporters of liberal democracy itself than as members of, or backers of, any particular partisan political party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207277/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lawrence Torcello does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When everything is seen as political – indictments, Supreme Court decisions, scientific findings – a democracy may be on its way to fascism.Lawrence Torcello, Associate Professor of Philosophy, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1966912023-06-06T12:31:12Z2023-06-06T12:31:12ZScientists’ political donations reflect polarization in academia – with implications for the public’s trust in science<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530181/original/file-20230605-25-5v5b99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=175%2C143%2C3722%2C2746&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Under 10% of political donations from academic scholars go to Republican causes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/political-contributions-super-pacs-and-political-royalty-free-image/1321234653">Douglas Rissing/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People who lean left politically reported an <a href="https://apnorc.org/projects/amidst-the-pandemic-confidence-in-the-scientific-community-becomes-increasingly-polarized/">increase in trust in scientists</a> during the COVID-19 pandemic, while those who lean right politically reported much lower levels of trust in scientists. This polarization around scientific issues – from COVID-19 to climate change to evolution – is at its peak since surveys started tracking this question over 50 years ago.</p>
<p><iframe id="dDH8G" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dDH8G/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Surveys reveal that people with more education are <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/04/26/a-wider-ideological-gap-between-more-and-less-educated-adults/">more ideologically liberal</a>. And academia has been gradually turning left over the past 40 years. Scientists – the people who produce scientific knowledge – are widely perceived to be on the opposite side of the political spectrum from those who trust science the least. This disparity poses a challenge when communicating important science to the public.</p>
<p>In a recent study, science historian <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UK9sjJMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Naomi Oreskes</a>, environmental social scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=e138rTwAAAAJ&hl=en">Viktoria Cologna</a>, literary critic <a href="https://www.charlietyson.com/">Charlie Tyson</a> <a href="https://www.kaurov.org">and I</a> leveraged public data sets <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01382-3">to explore the dynamics of scientists’ political leanings</a>. Our analysis of individual political donations confirms that the vast majority of scientists who contribute have supported Democratic candidates. But we contend that this fact doesn’t need to short-circuit effective science communication to the public.</p>
<h2>Digging into individuals’ political donations</h2>
<p>In the United States, all donations to political parties and campaigns must be reported to the Federal Election Committee. That information is <a href="https://www.fec.gov/">published by the FEC on its website</a>, along with the donation amount and date; the donor’s name, address and occupation; and the recipient’s party affiliation. This data allowed us to examine millions of transactions made in the past 40 years.</p>
<p><iframe id="xgAEa" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xgAEa/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01382-3">In our study</a>, we examined researchers in academia, specifically people with titles like “professor,” “faculty,” “scientist” and “lecturer,” as well as scientists in the energy sector. We conducted this analysis by identifying 100,000 scientists based on their self-reported occupation and cross-referencing them with the <a href="https://www.scopus.com/">Elsevier’s Scopus database</a>, which contains information on researchers and their scientific publications. The findings of our study indicate a gradual shift away from the Republican Party among American researchers, both in academia and the industry.</p>
<p>Overall support of the Republican Party, in terms of individual donations from the general public, has slid down over the past 40 years. But this trend is much steeper for scientists and academics than for the overall U.S. population. By 2022, it was hard to find an academic supporting the Republican Party financially, even at <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01382-3/figures/1">Christian colleges and universities</a>. The trend also persists <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01382-3/figures/3">across academic disciplines</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="0xrLo" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0xrLo/9/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Notably, scientists working at fossil fuel companies have also become more liberal, while their management has remained conservative, based on both groups’ political donations. We suspect this buildup of political polarization within companies may at some point intensify the public conversation about climate change.</p>
<h2>Who shares science messages</h2>
<p>People tend to accept and internalize information delivered by someone they consider trustworthy. Communication scholars call this the “<a href="https://ssir.org/articles/entry/finding_the_right_messenger_for_your_message">trusted messenger</a>” effect. Various factors like socioeconomic status, race and, increasingly, political leanings influence this perceived credibility.</p>
<p>Science communication gets stalled because of what appears to be a positive feedback loop: The more liberal academia gets, the fewer “trusted messengers” can communicate with the half of the U.S. that leans right. Trust in science and scientific institutions among Republicans declines and it gets reflected in their policies; academia, in response, leans even more left.</p>
<p>The increased clustering of scientists away from Republicans risks further damaging conservative Republicans’ trust in science. But we contend there are ways to break out of this loop.</p>
<p>First, academia is not a monolith. While our study may suggest that all academics are liberal, it is important to admit that the data we analyzed – political donations – is only a proxy for what people actually think. We don’t capture every scientist with this method since not everyone donates to political campaigns. In fact, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/05/17/5-facts-about-u-s-political-donations/">most people don’t donate to any candidate at all</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/book/31449">According to</a> <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2009/07/09/section-4-scientists-politics-and-religion/">surveys</a>, many academics have traditionally considered themselves moderate. The question, then, is how to communicate to the public the diversity of political views in academia, given the degree of current polarization, and how to elevate these other voices.</p>
<p>Second, the evident left leaning of academia <a href="https://social-epistemology.com/2020/08/07/the-american-university-the-politics-of-professors-and-the-narrative-of-liberal-bias-charlie-tyson-and-naomi-oreskes/">is not necessarily proof of a “liberal bias</a>” that <a href="https://areomagazine.com/2018/10/02/academic-grievance-studies-and-the-corruption-of-scholarship/">some people worry is corrupting research</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X14000430">impeding the pursuit of truth</a>. Overall, higher education does appear to have a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/04/26/a-wider-ideological-gap-between-more-and-less-educated-adults/">liberalizing effect on social and political views</a>, but universities also play an important role in the formation of <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691163666/becoming-right">political identity for</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11133-020-09446-z">young conservatives</a>.</p>
<p>We believe that clear data about academia’s left-leaning orientation, as well as understanding the underlying reasons for it, could help interrupt the feedback loop of declining scientific trust.</p>
<p>For now there’s a shortage of centrist and conservative scientists serving as trusted messengers. By engaging in public conversation, these scientists could offer visible alternatives to the anti-scientific stances of Republican elites, while at the same time showing that the scientific world is not homogeneous.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196691/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Kaurov receives funding from Harvard University. </span></em></p>Public data about individual donors’ political contributions supports the perception that American academia leans left.Alexander Kaurov, Research Associate in History of Science, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2068372023-06-01T02:37:06Z2023-06-01T02:37:06ZHouse approval of debt ceiling deal a triumph of the political center<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529495/original/file-20230601-21610-qy6u5o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C17%2C5973%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. Capitol, where on May 31, 2023, the House passed a debt limit deal on a bipartisan vote.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DebtLimit/3a53a2902bfa4fc8807afbe178dfe25d/photo?Query=debt%20limit&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1940&currentItemNo=3">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Talking with a friend about the debt ceiling negotiations, I mentioned that there were incentives for centrists in Congress to cobble together a deal. My friend said, incredulously, “Do we actually have centrists in Congress?”</p>
<p>Certainly, it is true that the country’s two major parties have <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/">sorted and separated</a> over the last 50 years. The average Democrat is more liberal and the average Republican more conservative than the average in the 1970s – or even 10 years ago. </p>
<p>But with the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2023/house-vote-debt-ceiling-deal/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f002">House vote</a> on GOP Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s deal with Democratic President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/31/politics/house-vote-debt-limit-bill/index.html#:%7E:text=The%20House%20of%20Representatives%20voted,to%20be%20signed%20into%20law.">to suspend the debt ceiling through Jan. 1, 2025</a>, successful passage was undoubtedly carried by centrists. The middle may <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-disappearing-political-center-congress-and-the-incredible-shrinking-middle/">be shrinking</a>, but it still exists, and it is critical in a closely divided Congress. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529460/original/file-20230531-23355-r30h9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two gray-haired men in dark suits and white shirts and ties, standing outside on a large set of steps." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529460/original/file-20230531-23355-r30h9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529460/original/file-20230531-23355-r30h9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529460/original/file-20230531-23355-r30h9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529460/original/file-20230531-23355-r30h9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529460/original/file-20230531-23355-r30h9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529460/original/file-20230531-23355-r30h9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529460/original/file-20230531-23355-r30h9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The deal was negotiated by President Joe Biden, left, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and their representatives.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CongressDebt/886fd8d91e3147b3831e60960864d0c0/photo?Query=(persons.person_featured:%22Joe%20Biden%22)%20AND%20(persons.person_featured:%22Kevin%20McCarthy%22)%20AND%20%20(mccarthy%20biden)%20&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=122&currentItemNo=23">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ideological space within parties</h2>
<p>Why did the center carry such weight? </p>
<p>As a starting point, it helps to look at the spectrum of ideology within each party. There is significant <a href="https://voteview.com/congress/house/-1">ideological distance</a> between, say, <a href="https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/election/california-elections/article273778515.html">Barbara Lee, a liberal California Democrat</a>, or the four progressive members of what’s called “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/15/politics/who-are-the-squad/index.html">The Squad</a>,” and the two moderate Democrats, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/05/05/maine-moderate-debt-ceiling/">Jared Golden of Maine</a> and Washington state’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/01/19/marie-gluenskamp-perez-democrats-middle-class-00078215">Marie Gluesenkamp Perez</a>, who voted with Republicans in late May <a href="https://www.wmtw.com/article/jared-golden-student-loan-cancellation-vote/44002364">to overturn</a> Biden’s student debt relief policies. </p>
<p>Similarly, there is ideological space between Golden and Gluesenkamp Perez’s fellow member of the moderate, bipartisan <a href="https://problemsolverscaucus.house.gov/">Problem Solvers Caucus</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/hub/don-bacon">Don Bacon, a Republican from Nebraska</a>, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/us/politics/lauren-boebert-colorado-elected.html">Colorado Republican and conservative firebrand Lauren Boebert</a>. </p>
<p>Within the Republican-controlled House, this left ample space for GOP defectors to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2023/house-vote-debt-ceiling-deal/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f002">vote against the debt ceiling compromise</a>, but also yielded <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/05/31/us/politics/house-debt-limit-live-vote.html">dozens of Democrats who voted in favor</a>, in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/31/debt-ceiling-deal-house-vote-bill/">final 314-117 bipartisan vote</a>. The two-party division of Congress belies the fact that the ideological distance between moderates in either party is not that great. </p>
<p>Another explanation of the center’s power in Congress now – and in the House debt ceiling vote – is the incentive that exists to be seen as a winning party. Being perceived by voters as a party that gets things done <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/4620079.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3Aab2cff103fcd9ba9ea8b92447a562ff4&ab_segments=&origin=&initiator=&acceptTC=1">helps win elections</a> – and centrists are often the ones whose votes are up for grabs, one way or another.</p>
<p>That said, there is an electoral cost for a party being too unified. On well-publicized votes on which party unity is enforced by party leaders, voters may come to see their representatives as too far from their own preferences. This is what some research has suggested <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1532673X11433768">happened to Democrats</a> in the 2010 midterms with regard to the <a href="https://www.healthcare.gov/glossary/affordable-care-act/">Affordable Care Act</a>. Democrats had <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/06/22/history-lesson-how-the-democrats-pushed-obamacare-through-the-senate/">ferociously advocated for the legislation</a>; as one scholarly study put it, they “<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1532673X11433768">paid a significant price at the polls</a>” for that advocacy. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529472/original/file-20230531-21610-laomo2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A pile of several pages of black printing on white paper." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529472/original/file-20230531-21610-laomo2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529472/original/file-20230531-21610-laomo2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529472/original/file-20230531-21610-laomo2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529472/original/file-20230531-21610-laomo2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529472/original/file-20230531-21610-laomo2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529472/original/file-20230531-21610-laomo2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529472/original/file-20230531-21610-laomo2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The draft of the bill that President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California negotiated to raise the nation’s debt ceiling.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DebtLimit/e40d26db299b42049016ad134bd04214/photo?Query=debt%20ceiling&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1114&currentItemNo=6">AP Photo/Jon Elswick</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The middle matters</h2>
<p>These incentives set the stage for the political wrangling over the debt ceiling. Speaker McCarthy had an incentive to pass legislation – to be seen as a winner. At the same time, there were Democratic House members who were driven by their own electoral prospects who wanted to be seen as moderate. </p>
<p><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Josh_Gottheimer">Josh Gottheimer</a>, for example, who co-chairs the Problem Solvers caucus, is a Democrat from a moderate New Jersey district with just a <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list">narrow Democratic tilt</a>. The bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus proved critical to the bill’s passage by <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/4028426-bipartisan-problem-solvers-caucus-endorses-debt-deal/">providing Democratic votes</a> to help the bill survive GOP defections. </p>
<p>Complicating this incentive structure is the currently divided U.S. government. If one party controlled Congress and the presidency, then it would be clear that that party would be blamed in the event the legislation didn’t pass. But with a Democratic president and a GOP House, <a href="https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/raising-the-u-s-debt-ceiling/#:%7E:text=43%25%20say%20President%20Biden%20would,neither%20will%20be%20at%20fault.">polling data</a> shows an almost even split in terms of who would be blamed if a debt ceiling deal failed. Thus, both Democrats and Republicans had an incentive to get a deal done. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1664079568204972032"}"></div></p>
<p>While there is some debate in political science over the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2130434.pdf?casa_token=EgfButYy6kEAAAAA:ikSRnN0eCfGBTXHWUPHOSdR0iTizhcPu86tbf_e38rCWiZcwZ2t3cJ-ijI5xB1g6RDvda80nLhRQlMcnXErz4gWG6qiOUuSbWh2fHeonT-Axdv7OVMw">power of presidential coattails</a>, Democrats themselves may believe their future electoral fortunes are at least <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/house-democrats-stick-by-biden-presidential-election-2024-rcna73240">partially tied to that of President Biden</a>, another incentive to support legislation he backs. </p>
<p>From here, the deal goes to the Senate, where moderates may be just as influential. </p>
<p>Given the smaller size of the upper chamber and the Democrats’ narrow majority, the influence of individual senators is more pronounced. The deal already contains a victory for West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, a Democrat looking at a <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4026468-justice-tops-manchin-by-22-points-in-new-poll-on-senate-race/">brutal reelection fight</a> in 2024. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/business/debt-ceiling-agreement.html">The bill contained approval</a> for a natural gas pipeline project in his state that Manchin has championed. </p>
<p>Although the Senate vote is still pending, the House debt ceiling maneuvering demonstrates that the middle, while shrinking, continues to matter.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206837/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Harris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The news media spent a lot of time reporting on how much progressive Democrats and conservative Republicans didn’t like the debt ceiling deal. But centrists had enough votes to pass it in the House.Matt Harris, Assistant Professor, Political Science, Park UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2065862023-05-29T07:42:41Z2023-05-29T07:42:41ZCan high-stakes debt-ceiling brinkmanship in the US lead to unprecedented political unity?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528752/original/file-20230529-17-9z4e6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Congress appears to be on the cusp of passing <a href="https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20230529/BILLS-118hrPIH-fiscalresponsibility.pdf">legislation</a> that would not only avoid an unprecedented US government default – and economic catastrophe – but also provide some much-needed political stability in Washington. </p>
<p>Both Republicans and Democrats are claiming victory in the deal and a loss for the other.</p>
<p>From the Republican point of view, the deal <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/kevin-mccarthy-deal-historic-reductions-012005079.html">will bring</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>historic reductions in spending, consequential reforms that will lift people out of poverty […] and rein in government overreach. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Key Republican demands included: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>new work requirements for those seeking federal government assistance, meaning more Americans will enter the workforce instead of being paid not to work</p></li>
<li><p>fewer government regulations around infrastructure projects</p></li>
<li><p>a US$20 billion (A$30.5 billion) cut to the Internal Revenue Service budget in 2024 </p></li>
<li><p>a cap on non-defence government spending and federal relief of student loans.</p></li>
</ul>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1662989626829676548"}"></div></p>
<p>From the Democratic point of view, the agreement raises the debt ceiling beyond the 2024 elections, does not cut discretionary spending and contains a fraction of the cuts the Republican-controlled House of Representatives had passed in their earlier proposals.</p>
<p>And on the concessions mentioned previously, Democrats are touting: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>the new work requirements are minimal and will not affect Medicare recipients</p></li>
<li><p>the streamlining of regulations around infrastructure projects is far more limited than what Republicans had initially sought</p></li>
<li><p>the cuts to the IRS budget are a fraction of the recently passed US$80 billion (A$122 billion) budget increase</p></li>
<li><p>government spending was likely to face limits due to appropriation processes anyway, and student loan payments were already due to restart.</p></li>
</ul>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1662952595659390976"}"></div></p>
<h2>Washington maybe isn’t broken</h2>
<p>US President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/im-the-unifier-in-chief-says-joe-biden/news-story/4cc6b7aa7983b9bf6b89a18c429c12c0">campaigned</a> in the 2020 elections as a unifier who prioritised his ability to reach across the aisle and lower the levels of political animosity. </p>
<p>As a result, these are the sorts of political arguments – in which both sides argue over who won – that he is all too glad to have.</p>
<p>In today’s political climate, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/joe-biden-wins-the-election-and-now-has-to-fight-the-one-thing-americans-agree-on-the-nations-deep-division-148106">polarisation</a> has resulted in <a href="https://www.thelugarcenter.org/newsroom-news-420.html">decreasing</a> levels of bipartisanship, it can feel like the only thing both sides can agree on is that disagreements are too great to be overcome.</p>
<p>Most US citizens and politicians will <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/us0722-crosstabs-nyt071422/f034d2429900e8eb/full.pdf">agree</a> that Washington is broken and the government does not function as well as it should.</p>
<p>The nature of the debt-ceiling agreement makes clear there is, at least in this instance, bipartisan political leadership in favour of specific legislation instead of endless rhetoric that everything in Washington is broken.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528784/original/file-20230529-25-xp9htf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528784/original/file-20230529-25-xp9htf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528784/original/file-20230529-25-xp9htf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528784/original/file-20230529-25-xp9htf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528784/original/file-20230529-25-xp9htf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528784/original/file-20230529-25-xp9htf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528784/original/file-20230529-25-xp9htf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biden and McCarthy working to find common ground in the Oval Office of the White House last week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alex Brandon/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Few, if any, US presidents have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/05/14/biden-is-one-most-experienced-politicians-ever-seek-presidency/">assumed</a> office with more political experience than Biden. Having arrived in Washington half a century ago, he is acutely familiar with how to negotiate in a manner that allows both sides to claim victory. </p>
<p>Biden has also remained consistently confident about his ability to do so despite bipartisan pessimism. As much as it pays political dividends to campaign on the idea that Washington is so broken only an outsider can fix it, Biden would argue instead that a president with five decades of experience as a “Washington insider” actually makes government function better, not worse.</p>
<p>Crafting a deficit agreement that allows both Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Biden to claim victory – in the wake of other bipartisan legislation <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/01/1143149435/despite-infighting-its-been-a-surprisingly-productive-2-years-for-democrats">ranging</a> from infrastructure and semiconductor manufacturing to veteran health care – is the sort of proof of results that Biden would say comes from such experience. </p>
<p>Biden made his approach to the budget negotiations clear. The agreement is a compromise, he <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/05/28/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-bipartisan-budget-agreement/">said</a>, in which “no one got everything they want, but that’s the responsibility of governing”. </p>
<p>The president believes these sorts of compromises help restore trust and optimism about the US government actually being capable of responsible governing.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/voters-want-compromise-in-congress-so-why-the-brinkmanship-over-the-debt-ceiling-206465">Voters want compromise in Congress -- so why the brinkmanship over the debt ceiling?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why does this matter to the world?</h2>
<p>As the world’s largest economy with a debt that is foundational to the global economy, a default would do far more than create chaos in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/business/default-debt-what-happens-next.html">US$24 trillion Treasury debt market</a>. It would ultimately upend financial markets and create international turmoil. </p>
<p>Indeed, the catastrophic economic consequences of a default would be so widespread that it is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/business/default-debt-what-happens-next.html">difficult to quantify</a>. It would have almost certainly led to a recession.</p>
<p>But aside from the most dire of scenarios, these budget negotiations have had direct implications for the rest of the world – far larger than the mere cancelling of Biden’s planned trip to Australia this month.</p>
<p>As my colleagues recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/bidens-cancelled-australia-png-trip-was-a-missed-opportunity-but-a-us-debt-crisis-would-hurt-a-lot-more-206079">argued</a>, the last US debt-ceiling negotiations, during the Obama administration in 2011, resulted in the Budget Control Act. This law constrained US defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific to such an extent that US foreign policy has still not entirely recovered. </p>
<p>As the then US secretary of defence, James Mattis, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/02/06/mattis_no_enemy_has_done_more_damage_to_military_than_budget_sequester.html">said</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>No enemy in the field has done as much to harm the readiness of the US military than the combined impact of the Budget Control Act’s defence spending caps.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bidens-cancelled-australia-png-trip-was-a-missed-opportunity-but-a-us-debt-crisis-would-hurt-a-lot-more-206079">Biden's cancelled Australia-PNG trip was a missed opportunity – but a US debt crisis would hurt a lot more</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What to expect next?</h2>
<p>Former Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi famously only allowed legislation to be voted on that she knew had the requisite Democratic votes to <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/573976-pelosi-on-infrastructure-bill-im-never-bringing-a-bill-to-the/">get passed</a>. </p>
<p>With one of the slimmest possible majorities in the House, McCarthy only won his role as speaker after more than a dozen votes. Few had complete confidence he would ultimately get the job. As a result, McCarthy will rarely – if ever – be able to take a Pelosi-like approach to voting during his speakership.</p>
<p>With the debt-ceiling legislation, McCarthy may again be forced go to the House floor without complete confidence in Republican support. He and centrist Republicans will instead be relying on some centrist Democrats voting in favour of the legislation. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1662950270630875136"}"></div></p>
<p>This reality has forced McCarthy to simultaneously tout the proposal to Republicans as exceedingly conservative, but still enough of a compromise to win over some Democrats. Even then, there may once again be symbolic votes against the legislation the first time it is put to the floor in order for some representatives to register a protest with their constituents.</p>
<p>Biden and McCarthy will now need to weather the storm from their respective left and right flanks to secure the agreement’s passage. But they are ultimately hoping this deal will remove one more obstacle to a better-functioning Washington, where political brinkmanship has continued to challenge an otherwise significant <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/26/america-supremacy-irresponsible-politics/">resurgence</a> of US strength at home and leadership abroad. </p>
<p>While failure to raise the debt limit would have been unprecedented, a lowering of Washington’s political antagonism increasingly feels unprecedented, too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jared Mondschein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Biden believes these sorts of compromises help restore trust and optimism about the US government actually being capable of responsible governing.Jared Mondschein, Director of Research, US Studies Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2061742023-05-28T17:15:23Z2023-05-28T17:15:23ZDebt ceiling negotiators reach a deal: 5 essential reads about the tentative accord, brinkmanship and the danger of default<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528698/original/file-20230528-145930-1dir73.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C437%2C7766%2C4957&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Biden speaks to reporters about the tentative accord. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DebtLimit/5f4e2743ebcf4b4795d386cd54ea90d4/photo?Query=debt%20ceiling&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1041&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Susan Walsh</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on May 27, 2023, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-28/white-house-republicans-reach-deal-to-avert-historic-us-default">agreed in principle to a tentative deal</a> that would raise the debt ceiling while capping some federal spending at current levels.</p>
<p>The accord, if approved by both houses of Congress, would avert an unprecedented default that threatens to derail the economy and put hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work. Negotiators agreed to lift the ceiling for two years – past the 2024 presidential election – while putting a temporary cap on most nondefense spending at 2023 levels. It would also reduce planned funding for the IRS, impose new work requirements on some people who receive benefits from the federal program known as SNAP and claw back billions of unspent funds from pandemic relief programs.</p>
<p>The Conversation has been covering the debt ceiling drama since January, when Republicans took over the House, raising fears that brinkmanship would lead to an economic catastrophe. Here are five articles from our archive to help you make sense of a couple key aspects of the tentative deal and provide context on the debt ceiling fight.</p>
<h2>1. What is the debt ceiling?</h2>
<p>First some basics. The debt ceiling was established by the U.S. Congress in 1917. It limits the total national debt by setting out a maximum amount that the government can borrow.</p>
<p>Steven Pressman, an <a href="https://ww4.newschool.edu/nssr/faculty/steven-pressman/">economist at The New School</a>, explained the original aim was “to let then-President Woodrow Wilson spend the money he deemed necessary to fight World War I without waiting for often-absent lawmakers to act. Congress, however, did not want to write the president a blank check, so it limited borrowing to US$11.5 billion and required legislation for any increase.”</p>
<p>Since then, the debt ceiling has <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-america-has-a-debt-ceiling-5-questions-answered-164977">been increased dozens of times</a>. It currently stands at $31.4 trillion – a figure reached in January. The Treasury has taken “extraordinary measures” to enable the government to keep borrowing without breaching the ceiling. Such measures, however, can only be temporary – meaning at one point Congress will have to act to lift the ceiling or default on its debt obligations, which is expected to happen by June 5, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yellen-moves-forecast-earliest-potential-us-default-date-june-5-2023-05-26/">according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen</a>, if the deal isn’t approved in time.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-america-has-a-debt-ceiling-5-questions-answered-164977">Why America has a debt ceiling: 5 questions answered</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. The trouble with work requirements</h2>
<p>One of the biggest sticking points toward the end of negotiations was work requirements for recipients of government aid. The tentative deal would raise the age for existing work requirements from 49 to 54 years on able-bodied adults who have no children. This is less than what Republicans had earlier sought. There are exceptions for veterans and the homeless. </p>
<p>But if the goal is to help people find jobs and make more money, work requirements <a href="https://theconversation.com/snap-work-requirements-dont-actually-get-more-people-working-but-they-do-drastically-limit-the-availability-of-food-aid-204257">don’t actually do the job</a>, wrote <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Zoc5_aMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Kelsey Pukelis</a>, a doctoral student in public policy at Harvard Kennedy School who has studied the issue. Rather, they make it much harder for people who need food aid to get it. </p>
<p>“Our findings do suggest that work requirements restrain federal spending by reducing the number of people getting SNAP benefits,” she explained. “But our work also indicates that in today’s context, these savings would be at the expense of already vulnerable people facing additional economic hardship at a time when a new recession could be around the corner.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snap-work-requirements-dont-actually-get-more-people-working-but-they-do-drastically-limit-the-availability-of-food-aid-204257">SNAP work requirements don’t actually get more people working – but they do drastically limit the availability of food aid</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. IRS funding takes a hit</h2>
<p>The deal also takes aim at a big boost in spending Congress gave the Internal Revenue Service beginning in 2022 to crack down on tax cheats and upgrade its software. Democrats agreed to a Republican demand to cut the extra IRS funding from $80 billion to $70 billion. </p>
<p>Back in August 2022, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J_S5pkkAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Nirupama Rao</a>, an economist at the University of Michigan, <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-inflation-reduction-act-actually-reduce-inflation-how-will-the-corporate-minimum-tax-work-an-economist-has-answers-188786">explained why Democrats included all that funding</a> in their Inflation Reduction Act and how it would help the IRS collect more tax revenue, since the agency does not fully collect all the taxes that are owed.</p>
<p>“The main target of this spending is the so-called tax gap, which is currently estimated at about $600 billion a year,” she wrote. “While an $80 billion investment that returns $204 billion already sounds pretty impressive, it may be possible that it’s a conservative estimate.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-inflation-reduction-act-actually-reduce-inflation-how-will-the-corporate-minimum-tax-work-an-economist-has-answers-188786">Will the Inflation Reduction Act actually reduce inflation? How will the corporate minimum tax work? An economist has answers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>4. The hard road to compromise</h2>
<p>It took a long time for Republicans and Democrats to get the current agreement. </p>
<p>Yellen warned in January that the government was about to hit the debt limit and would be unable to pay all its bills by May or June. McCarthy and House Republicans, who hold a razor-thin majority, appeared unwilling to raise the debt ceiling unless they could extract <a href="https://apnews.com/article/debt-limit-bill-house-republicans-kevin-mccarthy-f73e6c2fce8abdfab4973c727ea79517">deep spending cuts</a>. Meanwhile, Biden <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-will-talk-budget-wont-negotiate-debt-ceiling-congress-meeting-white-house-2023-05-02/">refused to negotiate</a>, insisting on a clean debt ceiling bill. Both of those positions were dropped during negotiations. </p>
<p>Why did it take so long for them to reach a compromise? </p>
<p>Blame political trends that have been accelerating for decades, explained <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=cfH3-8sAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Laurel Harbridge-Yong</a>, a specialist in partisan conflict and the lack of bipartisan agreement in American politics at Northwestern University. Many Republicans come from very safe districts, which means their primary against other conservatives is more important than the general election. <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-voters-want-compromise-in-congress-so-why-the-brinkmanship-over-the-debt-limit-206465">This makes it more important to stand firm</a> and fight until the bitter end. </p>
<p>“So you now have many Republicans who are more willing to fight quite hard against the Democrats because they don’t want to give a win to Biden,” she wrote. “Democrats are also resistant to compromising, both because they don’t want to gut programs that they put in place and also because they don’t want to make this look like a win for Republicans, who were able to play chicken and get what they wanted.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/voters-want-compromise-in-congress-so-why-the-brinkmanship-over-the-debt-ceiling-206465">Voters want compromise in Congress -- so why the brinkmanship over the debt ceiling?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>5. Latest in a long line of fiscal crises</h2>
<p>This was hardly the first fiscal crisis the U.S. government has faced. In fact, there have been many – including 22 government shutdowns since just 1976. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymond-scheppach-19b98536">Raymond Scheppach</a>, a professor of public policy at University of Virginia, <a href="https://theconversation.com/link-205178">offered a brief history</a> of recent crises and the damage they’ve caused – and why a default would be far more consequential than past crises.</p>
<p>“While these were very disruptive and damaged the economy and employment, they pale in comparison to the potential effects of failing to lift the debt ceiling, which could be catastrophic,” he wrote. “It could bring down the entire international financial system. This in turn could devastate the world gross domestic product and create mass unemployment.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-debt-ceiling-crises-and-the-political-chaos-theyve-unleashed-205178">A brief history of debt ceiling crises and the political chaos they've unleashed</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives. Portions of this article originally appeared in <a href="https://theconversation.com/yellen-puts-congress-on-notice-over-impending-debt-default-date-5-essential-reads-on-whats-at-stake-204863">a previous article</a> published on May 2, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The deal would raise the ceiling for two years, cap some federal spending and impose new work requirements on certain federal benefits. It still needs the blessing of Congress.Bryan Keogh, Managing EditorMatt Williams, Senior International EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064652023-05-26T15:02:29Z2023-05-26T15:02:29ZVoters want compromise in Congress – so why the brinkmanship over the debt ceiling?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C25%2C8575%2C5665&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, left, meets with President Joe Biden to discuss the debt limit in the White House on May 22, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenDebtLimit/6f1e6ced06ab4a0b81026f02e69825f6/photo?Query=debt%20limit&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1596&currentItemNo=307">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>There’s progress on the debt limit. There’s no progress. Conservatives have revolted. Liberal Democrats are angry. Negotiators actually <a href="https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1659250606370848773">ate a meal together</a>. That’s a good sign. No it isn’t. Who’s up? Who’s down?</em></p>
<p><em>Much of the breathless news coverage of the debt limit crisis relies on leaks, speculation, wishful thinking and maybe even the reading of tea leaves. The Conversation decided to tap an expert on congressional behavior, Northwestern University political scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=cfH3-8sAAAAJ&hl=en">Laurel Harbridge-Yong</a>, and ask her what she sees when she looks at the negotiations. Harbridge-Yong is a specialist in partisan conflict and the lack of bipartisan agreement in American politics, so her expertise is tailor-made for the moment.</em> </p>
<h2>What do the debt limit negotiations look like to you?</h2>
<p>The difficulty that Congress and the White House are having in reaching compromises highlights two aspects of contemporary politics. The first: Since the 1970s, both the House and Senate have <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/">become much more polarized</a>. Members of the two parties are more unified internally and further apart from the opposing party. You don’t have the overlap between parties now that existed 50 years ago.</p>
<p>Even as we’ve had rising polarization, we still have <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/356174/democrats-big-political-tent-helps-explain-stalemate.aspx">important differences within the parties</a>. Not every Democrat is the same as another and not every Republican is the same. </p>
<p>This relates to a second point: Members’ individual and collective interests shape their behavior. For <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/06/republicans-debt-ceiling-mccarthy-freedom-caucus">Republicans in more competitive districts</a>, their own individual electoral interests probably say, “Let’s cut a deal. Let’s not risk a default that the Republicans get blamed for, and which is going to run really poorly in my district.” </p>
<p>On the other hand, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-house-hardliners-could-try-block-debt-ceiling-deal-without-robust-cuts-2023-05-18/">House Freedom Caucus Republicans</a> come from really safe districts, and they care more about their primary elections than they do their general elections. So their own electoral interests say, “Stand firm, fight till the bitter end, try to force the hand of the president.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528422/original/file-20230525-23265-9vbnei.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A gray haired man in suit and tie talking to reporters under a chandelier." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528422/original/file-20230525-23265-9vbnei.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528422/original/file-20230525-23265-9vbnei.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528422/original/file-20230525-23265-9vbnei.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528422/original/file-20230525-23265-9vbnei.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528422/original/file-20230525-23265-9vbnei.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528422/original/file-20230525-23265-9vbnei.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528422/original/file-20230525-23265-9vbnei.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., center, said on May 25, 2023, that he is optimistic that White House and GOP negotiators can reach a deal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/speaker-of-the-house-kevin-mccarthy-speaks-with-reporters-news-photo/1257988628?adppopup=true">Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>These kinds of electoral interests occur at the individual and collective levels for members of a party. Since the 1980s, and accelerating into the 1990s, there’s been <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-polisci-072012-113747">a lot more competition for majority control</a>, and as a result the two parties don’t want to do things that let the other party look good. They don’t want to give the other party a win in the eyes of the voter. </p>
<p>So you now have many Republicans who are more willing to fight quite hard against the Democrats because they don’t want to give a win to Biden. </p>
<p>Democrats are also resistant to compromising, both because they <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/05/24/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-35/">don’t want to gut programs</a> that they put in place and also because they don’t want to make this look like a win for Republicans, who were able to play chicken and get what they wanted. </p>
<p>These dynamics, layered on top of policy interests, all contribute to the problems that we’re seeing now. </p>
<h2>What’s the role of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/19/1149861784/debt-ceiling-brinksmanship">brinkmanship in this conflict</a>?</h2>
<p>When I think of brinkmanship, I’m thinking about negotiating tactics that push things until the very last minute to try to secure the most concessions for your side. Right now that means <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/24/debt-ceiling-gop-demands/">coming to the edge of potential default</a> on the debt. </p>
<h2>Does brinkmanship work?</h2>
<p>I was looking back at some of the previous government <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-debt-ceiling-crises-and-the-political-chaos-theyve-unleashed-205178">shutdowns as well as debt ceiling negotiations</a>. In some instances concessions were granted, so brinkmanship paid off. In other instances it was less obvious that there was a win, and in some instances there was perhaps a penalty, when the parties couldn’t agree and there was a government shutdown. </p>
<p>One party may be banking on the fact that the other party’s going to get blamed by the public while their own party reputation won’t be hurt. In the 1990s, it seemed like it was the <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/voters-blamed-gop-for-1995-shutdown_n_842769">Republicans who took the brunt</a> of the blame for a government shutdown. </p>
<p>There have been instances in which parties get something out of brinkmanship, as in the government shutdown at the beginning of the Trump administration over <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/25/trump-shutdown-announcement-1125529">funding for the border wall</a>. The Democrats ended up giving some money for the border wall. It wasn’t all of what Trump wanted, but it was part of what Trump and the Republicans wanted.</p>
<p>Brinkmanship and gridlock are disproportionately consequential for Democrats, who generally <a href="https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/">want to expand government programs</a>, versus for Republicans, who tend to want to <a href="https://prod-static.gop.com/media/Resolution_Platform.pdf?_gl=1*gor9yy*_gcl_au*MTY3NTEyMDk2NC4xNjgyNTE4Nzc1&_ga=2.185781033.1441572001.1685048771-688242051.1682518780">constrict government programs</a>. So gridlock or forced spending cuts are easier for Republicans to stomach than Democrats. It may be part of why we see Republicans going harder on this kind of brinkmanship. </p>
<h2>How does the public see brinkmanship?</h2>
<p>On the whole, I think the public doesn’t like it. </p>
<p>My own work has shown that the <a href="https://www.ipr.northwestern.edu/documents/policy-briefs/harbridge-policybrief-2020.pdf?linkId=84025998">public does not like gridlock</a> on issues in which people agree on the end goal. The public, on average, even prefers a victory for the other side over policy gridlock. </p>
<p>A win for their own side is the best outcome, a compromise is next best, a win for the other side is next best after that. Gridlock is the worst outcome. </p>
<p>The place where it gets a little bit more challenging is that how people understand and interpret politics is heavily <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.072805.103054">shaped by how politics is framed to them</a>. </p>
<p>Conservative politicians and media spin the debt ceiling very much as <a href="https://lucas.house.gov/posts/lucas-statement-on-house-gop-plan-addressing-debt-ceiling-applauds-passage-of-limit-save-grow-act">fiscal responsibility</a>, saying this is just like a family’s personal budget at home or that it’s really important to not just raise the debt limit without <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/us/politics/debt-limit-vote-republicans.html">spending concessions</a>. </p>
<p>Those on the Democratic side are hearing that the Republicans are <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5072354/congressional-democrats-accuse-republicans-holding-economy-hostage-debt-limit-talks">holding the country hostage</a>, we can’t give in to them, <a href="https://democrats-appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/speaker-mccarthy-puts-nation-s-economy-at-risk">this will gut really important programs</a>, and so forth.</p>
<p>So on the one hand, the public doesn’t like gridlock – especially gridlock when the consequences are so bad, as default would be. On the other hand, voters in each party’s base are hearing the story framed in very different ways. Both sides may <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/debt-ceiling-crisis-democrats-gop">end up blaming the other side</a>. They’re not necessarily going to be calling their legislators and asking them to compromise.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528421/original/file-20230525-29-5qs03s.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Many people in business clothing on a stage with signs that say 'MAGA Republicans' BAD DEAL.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528421/original/file-20230525-29-5qs03s.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528421/original/file-20230525-29-5qs03s.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528421/original/file-20230525-29-5qs03s.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528421/original/file-20230525-29-5qs03s.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528421/original/file-20230525-29-5qs03s.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528421/original/file-20230525-29-5qs03s.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528421/original/file-20230525-29-5qs03s.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., speaks about the debt limit and negotiations to reach a deal on May 24, 2023, in Washington, D.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/congressional-progressive-caucus-chair-rep-pramila-jayapal-news-photo/1257785190?adppopup=true">Photo by Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Democracy is about representation. As they conduct these negotiations, do lawmakers see themselves as representing voters?</h2>
<p>Many conservative Republicans who are holding firm may believe that they are good representatives of what the base wants. They represent very strongly partisan districts who may agree with them that they need to fight for concessions. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/rejecting-compromise/01F2DA900C72ACF02E1B3ECF4EED43D3">the recent book</a> that I wrote with Sarah Anderson and Daniel Butler, we found that legislators believe their primary voters want them to reject compromises. </p>
<p>But in today’s crisis, those constituents may not really understand the consequences of default. Sometimes good representation doesn’t just mean doing what the public wants – legislators have better information or understanding of how things work and should do what’s in the best interests of their constituents. </p>
<p>However, even if individual members are trying to represent their districts or their states, when we think about this at a more aggregate or collective level, we don’t see great representation. Individual legislators may be thinking they’re representing constituents, but that leads to an aggregate that is not representative of the country as a whole. </p>
<p>What the public as a whole – which tends to be more moderate – wants is compromise and resolution of this issue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206465/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurel Harbridge-Yong has received funding from the National Science Foundation, the Social Science Research Council, Unite America, the Electoral Integrity Project, and the Dirksen Congressional Center.</span></em></p>Brinkmanship means coming to the edge of potential default on the US debt ceiling. Are lawmakers negotiating the debt limit representing the wishes and interests of their voters?Laurel Harbridge-Yong, Associate Professor of Political Science, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.