tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/driverless-transport-35038/articlesDriverless transport – The Conversation2023-09-29T16:43:11Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143232023-09-29T16:43:11Z2023-09-29T16:43:11ZSelf-driving buses that go wherever you want? How the UK is trying to revolutionise public transport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551206/original/file-20230929-23-z1vo5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C164%2C3015%2C1730&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scotland’s CAVForth self-driving bus service began in May 2023, serving a 14-mile route that crosses the Forth Road Bridge on the outskirts of Edinburgh.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stagecoachbus.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Futurology is littered with predictions that failed to materialise, not least in the field of transport technology. In Edwardian times, when public transport was largely powered by horse or steam, a number of new concepts emerged which were hailed as the “future of public transport”.</p>
<p>In 1910, the <a href="https://collection.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/objects/co27065/brennans-gyroscopic-mono-rail-car-model-gyroscopic-mono-railcar">Brennan Monorail</a> was a gyroscopically stabilised, diesel-powered monorail train that ran on a circular test track at the White City in London. One of the early passengers on this <a href="https://www.midnight-trains.com/post/on-board-louis-brennans-gyroscopic-monorail">50-person prototype</a> was then-home secretary Winston Churchill, who insisted on driving the train himself. The new technology <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19225780-125-histories-the-spinning-top-railway/">reportedly</a> “proved as interesting to the statesman as a new toy would to a child” – and Churchill is said to have told its Irish-Australian creator <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/louis-brennan-the-inventive-life-of-the-monorail-man-from-mayo-1.1757782">Louis Brennan</a>: “Sir, your invention promises to revolutionise the railway systems of the world.”</p>
<p>Buoyed by such designs, engineering writers of the time looked forward to a future of us all whizzing around the country on new forms of hi-tech transport. But there were concerns too: in one popular <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmsworth_Popular_Science">1912 encyclopaedia</a>, an artist’s impression of a monorail train crossing a gorge via an unfeasibly skimpy bridge was accompanied by the warning:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>When [note, not ‘if’] the monorail comes into general use, the feeling of insecurity – quite unnecessary but nevertheless inevitable – will be felt the strongest where there are single-rail bridges.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In fact, despite Churchill’s support, the Brennan Monorail never got further than the test track. In both its target markets – cheaply built branch lines and the military – a far simpler technology easily outdid it on grounds of practicality, flexibility and cost: the motorised bus and truck.</p>
<p>More than a century on, we are in a new era of transport technology disruption. In recent years, across the world, we have seen the emergence of the <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/flying-electric-taxis-are-hailed-as-the-future-2v6jllgfc">flying taxi</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2022/11/29/is-it-finally-time-for-high-speed-hyperloop-transportation/">hyperloop train</a> prototypes, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-08-10/hydrogen-highway-or-highway-to-nowhere">hydrogen highways</a> and <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/trackless-trams-help-revitalize-suburbs/">trackless trams</a>, as well as countless driverless <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2012/12/23/3797260/self-driving-cars-automated-vehicles">car</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-what-weve-learned-from-experiments-in-san-francisco-and-phoenix-199319">taxi</a> and <a href="https://fortune.com/2017/01/14/vegas-self-driving-bus/">bus</a> pilots. At the same time, our most popular forms of public transport – the train and bus – are creaking under the strain of <a href="https://www.local.gov.uk/about/news/thousands-bus-routes-risk-amid-funding-uncertainty">government funding cuts</a>, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/resolving-rail-disputes-would-have-cost-less-than-strikes-admits-minister-12789405">union disputes</a> and <a href="https://www.railpro.co.uk/railpro-magazine/april-22/staffing-strategies-must-be-fixed-to-secure-future-for-uk-rail">technological upheaval</a>.</p>
<p>Is this the dawning of a much-needed revolution in mass transit, led by a new breed of clean-powered, demand-responsive, driverless vehicles? Or for all the people young and old, rural and urban-based, who rely on public transport for their everyday needs, will these grand designs turn out to be little more than modern versions of the Brennan Monorail flop?</p>
<h2>Slow death of the bus</h2>
<p>A key factor influencing today’s public transport strategies is the commitment to limit planetary warming to 1.5°C by reaching net zero emissions – a strategy the UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66857551">recently appeared to row back on</a>. One global projection by the C40 network suggests public transport use in cities needs to <a href="https://www.c40.org/news/public-transport-cities-decade-1-5c-target/">double by 2030</a> to meet these targets.</p>
<p>But there are, of course, many other benefits of good public transport: from <a href="https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/resource-efficiency/what-we-do/cities/sustainable-transport-and-air-pollution">improving air quality</a> and <a href="https://www.urbantransportgroup.org/resources/social-inclusion#:%7E:text=Transport%20has%20a%20vital%20role,to%20fully%20participate%20in%20society.">social inclusion</a> to encouraging <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/economic-growth/regional-development/2022/07/transport-is-the-core-of-levelling-up">regional economic development</a> (aka levelling up) and <a href="https://oecd-opsi.org/innovations/pink-passes/">widening workforce participation</a>.</p>
<p>In the UK, trains continue to hog the headlines, amid the rumoured <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66909732">cancellation of the northern section of the HS2 route</a>, the general <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/22/north-rail-system-franchises-london">lack of rail investment in the north</a>, ongoing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/rail-strikes">industrial action</a> over pay and staffing levels – and even the agonising <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/sep/26/no-one-knew-anything-rail-passengers-11-hour-london-to-edinburgh-odyssey">11-hour ordeal</a> endured by rail passengers when their London to Edinburgh service was cancelled mid-route. Meanwhile, the long, slow <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/06/bus-neglect-national-failure-public-policy-motorists">collapse of the UK’s local bus services</a> has gone largely unnoticed – other than by the people who have lost this critical mode of travel.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="BBC graphic of bus cuts" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Changes in bus use in English counties.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64651414">Department for Transport/BBC</a></span>
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<p>In March 2023, the House of Commons Transport Committee <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/34612/documents/190548/default/">reported</a> that England’s long-term decline in bus use outside London – a 15% drop between 2010-11 and 2018-19 – had deteriorated by a further 15% despite the government’s temporary <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/2-bus-fare-cap">£2 cap on fares</a> (rising to £2.50 in November 2023). The situation is <a href="https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/scottish-transport-statistics-no-38-2019-edition/chapter-2-bus-and-coach-travel/#:%7E:text=380%20million%20journeys%20were%20made,cards%20in%20Scotland%20in%202019.">similar in Scotland</a>, where bus use has declined 22% since 2007-08.</p>
<p>In parallel with this decline, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64557250">services and routes have been cut</a>. Government bus grants have become increasingly selective, resulting in entire bus networks vanishing in a number of areas, and being left “<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/local-bus-services-hanging-by-a-thread-mps-warn/ar-AA19fI5V?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e1abcf8487c34436b238e8eb141cacb9&ei=34">hanging by a thread</a>” in others.</p>
<p>This isn’t just in smaller towns and rural areas. Many larger settlements have also been affected, such as Stoke-on-Trent, where bus services have reduced by half since 2012-14. In June 2023, when <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3gz35wgpdyo">further cuts were announced</a>, <a href="https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/first-potteries-axes-journeys-cuts-8536993">local media</a> reported the impact on users such as this unhappy traveller:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I use the bus to get to work and back, and losing the service would mean reducing my hours. It’s getting us down. My husband’s an Avon rep, so he’s on and off the buses all the time. And the 8am bus I get is packed.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There are exceptions to this downward spiral. Manchester’s mayor, Andy Burnham, recently heralded the launch of the new, <a href="https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/news/local-accountability-at-centre-of-new-bus-network-as-operators-appointed-to-run-first-franchised-services-outside-of-london-for-almost-40-years/">“re-regulated” Bee network of buses</a> across Greater Manchester as “symbolic of a need to get more public control and ownership of critical services”. Praising this initiative, the Guardian wrote in its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/18/the-guardian-view-on-greater-manchesters-bus-revolution-the-public-at-the-wheel?CMP=share_btn_tw">leader column</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The cutting of bus services on purely commercial grounds has led to greater social and economic isolation, restricting opportunities for the elderly and those without other means of getting around. Publicly regulated buses will at last allow greater accountability in relation to a service that, for many passengers, is fundamental to their daily quality of life.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But this is not the direction of travel in most parts of the country, where privatised, disconnected bus services remain dominant. A key structural reason for the decline in local bus use is that people’s patterns of travel have become <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1165693/our-changing-travel-how-people_s-travel-choices-are-changing.pdf">much more dispersed and complex</a> – behaviour that is hard to accommodate with a conventional, fixed-route public transport system such as the bus.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
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<p>In fact, the strongest recent growth in local travel – seemingly exacerbated by the pandemic – has not been along major corridors to city centres, but in <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=5f45c81567467d0a5f56899774153461b85b1e4e">suburban and rural areas</a>. Not only are people <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/characteristicsofhomeworkersgreatbritain/september2022tojanuary2023">working in different ways</a> but our economy is increasingly <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02786/#:%7E:text=The%20service%20industries%20include%20the,employment%20in%20January%E2%80%93March%202023.">service</a> and <a href="https://www.capitaleconomics.com/newsroom/uk-economy-returns-growth-driven-consumer-spending">consumer-focused</a>, and travel patterns have altered significantly as a result. The major areas of travel growth are now for <a href="http://www.demand.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FutureTravel_report_final.pdf">social and leisure-related purposes</a> – and again, traditional fixed-route bus services struggle to accommodate these types of trip, while it is so much easier to simply use a car.</p>
<p>The advent of certain digital technologies – in particular, <a href="https://www.route-one.net/features/cashless-is-king-the-shifting-landscape-of-ticketing/">cashless ticketing</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2016/sep/15/top-10-transport-apps-smarter-travel">journey planning apps</a> – may make using public transport more desirable for those comfortable with such technology. But they don’t change the core service. A smart app is just a high-tech insult if buses don’t run when and where you want to go.</p>
<h2>The emergence of trackless trams</h2>
<p>In 2011, a small but radical new service was established to connect passengers using Heathrow Airport’s Terminal 5 with their parked cars. These <a href="https://www.heathrow.com/transport-and-directions/heathrow-parking/heathrow-pod-parking-terminal-5">Heathrow Pods</a> consisted of driverless, four-seater vehicles available on demand, taking passengers straight to their destination along special elevated, segregated roadways. Users were promised they would “never have to wait more than 30 seconds for one to become available”.</p>
<p>While admittedly covering a very limited area, this radical alternative to the traditional fixed-route, scheduled model of public transport <a href="https://www.dailystar.co.uk/travel/travel-news/mans-video-futuristic-heathrow-airport-28010349">continues to garner praise</a> since reopening after a hiatus during the pandemic. In the wake of the Heathrow Pods’ introduction, it had been expected that similar tracked, autonomous transport systems would develop elsewhere – but that hasn’t come about.</p>
<p>Rather, they could be seen as a small-vehicle precursor to the <a href="https://citymonitor.ai/transport/trackless-trams-may-be-the-best-alternative-to-light-rail">trackless tram systems</a> that have subsequently emerged around the world. A combination of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Positioning_System">GPS</a> and <a href="https://www.mrlcg.com/latest-media/lidar-in-cars-how-lidar-technology-is-making-self-driving-cars-a-reality-299493/">Lidar (light detection and ranging</a>) guidance technologies are enabling battery-powered electric vehicles to fulfil the function of trams without the need for disruptive and costly track and overhead line infrastructure – making high-quality tram-style services viable beyond a handful of “global elite” cities.</p>
<p>The Chinese <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-Trackless-Tram-System-developed-by-CRRC-and-demonstrated-in-Zhuzhou-China-Source_fig1_330069521">pioneered this form of public transport</a> with the automated rapid transit (ART) vehicles, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trackless-trams-are-ready-to-replace-light-rail-103690">first entered service in the eastern city of Zhuzhou</a> in 2018, then rapidly spread to other Chinese cities. Initially manually driven, these trackless trams are now moving to autonomous operation. In Zhuzhou, a four-carriage model was introduced in 2021 which can carry 320 passengers at a maximum speed of just over 40mph, running on batteries charged at each station stop.</p>
<p>And the concept is spreading beyond China: in 2022, a trial was announced for a five-mile route <a href="https://www.stirling.wa.gov.au/your-city/news/2022/march/exciting-new-phase-in-trackless-tram-feasibility">in the city of Stirling</a>, Western Australia. In the UK, however, there is less inclination to <a href="https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2022/10/uk-and-us-seek-to-undermine-chinas-growing-technological-influence/">depend on Chinese-controlled technology</a>. And of course, trams – trackless or otherwise – don’t solve the issue of people wanting services that take them beyond a fixed route.</p>
<p>Meeting the modern, disparate mobility needs of an entire population doesn’t just require new types of vehicle or clever booking apps. We need a new vision of what public transport could be – and in different corners of the UK, there are places starting to offer this.</p>
<h2>The UK’s self-driving public transport prototypes</h2>
<p>Scotland’s <a href="https://www.cavforth.com/">CAVForth self-driving bus service</a>, which came into public service in May 2023, is described on its website as “the world’s most ambitious and complex autonomous bus system”. Serving a <a href="https://www.cnet.com/tech/i-rode-the-worlds-first-autonomous-public-bus-service/">14-mile route</a> that crosses the Forth Road Bridge on the outskirts of Edinburgh, the buses drive themselves along ordinary roads, obey traffic lights, and mix with pedestrians and cyclists. The main reaction of passengers seems to be that they are unaware the buses are not manually driven, as one early user <a href="https://www.cnet.com/tech/i-rode-the-worlds-first-autonomous-public-bus-service/">wrote in CNet</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Though the bus is fully autonomous, you’d be forgiven for not really recognising it as such. You’ll find a regular steering wheel upfront, and behind it, a driver who’ll no doubt look as though they’re operating the vehicle as usual. UK law dictates that even fully autonomous vehicles must still have an ‘operator’ present who can take manual control, should the need arise.</p>
</blockquote>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jQ4uMMYP5xg?wmode=transparent&start=6" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Stagecoach video showing passengers on board the CAVForth self-driving bus service.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Using a combination of three sets of Lidar technology and a “suite of cameras and radar”, the autonomous system can currently manage 90% of the route, <a href="https://www.itpro.com/technology/meet-the-cavforth-project-the-worlds-first-autonomous-bus#:%7E:text=The%20five%2Dbus%20fleet%20began,will%20expand%20northwards%20to%20Dunfermline.">according to ITPro</a>, with the human driver “handling the exit from the depot and a few other locations”. The route is projected to expand further north, to the city of Dunfermline, in 2024.</p>
<p>Because the driver is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/free-public-transport-doesnt-add-up-unless-you-get-rid-of-the-drivers-97129">big part of bus running costs</a>, if buses can eventually be autonomous then the challenging costs of providing late-night services or thinly used routes will be reduced – meaning that services could be improved. But the IT-led potential extends much further than a driverless bus.</p>
<p>In south-east England, <a href="https://www.mi-link.uk/">Mi-Link</a> – billed as “the UK’s first fully electric autonomous bus service” – is a move towards something more radical. As well as being electric-powered, this self-driving bus service – which launched in January 2023 and now <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-65888336">runs on public roads to Didcot Parkway railway station</a> in south Oxfordshire – is linked to a real-time journey planning app which helps travellers plan their journey whether they are walking, cycling or taking the bus to the Milton Park trading estate. It keeps users updated according to their individual travel preferences through the likes of WhatsApp and Messenger.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">First Bus video launching the Mi-Link self-driving electric bus service in Oxfordshire.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The integration of autonomous technology with a smart journey planning system feels critical if public transport is to prosper by attracting traditional car users. App-linked self-driving taxi fleets may well prove another key part of this future, and there are already entirely driverless public taxi fleets such as Waymo and Cruise in <a href="https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=driverless+cars+san+francisco&docid=603485803253406102&mid=FACAC36B1FADD54CBAAFFACAC36B1FADD54CBAAF&view=detail&FORM=VIRE">San Francisco</a>, and the <a href="https://uk.pcmag.com/news/145977/visiting-chinas-capital-city-dont-be-surprised-if-your-taxi-has-no-driver">Robotaxi</a> in China. On the whole, these appear to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-what-weve-learned-from-experiments-in-san-francisco-and-phoenix-199319">technically successful</a>, if highly subsidised and dependent on powerful 5G networks to operate. However, their emergence has been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-66611513">met with resistance</a> both about perceived lack of safety and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f312c9ff-633d-480e-8887-4b5ad3f0ae5e">luddite-esque fears</a> of potential job losses.</p>
<p>But for one of the best clues to what local public transport could look like in the future, we should again look closer to home, to a UK city that has long been renowned – and sometimes mocked – for its futuristic visions.</p>
<h2>The future according to Milton Keynes</h2>
<p>After its foundation in 1967, the ambitious <a href="https://www.tcpa.org.uk/areas-of-work/garden-cities-and-new-towns/new-towns/">new town</a> of Milton Keynes in Buckinghamshire soon began attracting an international reputation for anticipating future social, economic and cultural trends. Along the way, it was also derided as a <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/milton-keynes-turns-50-embracing-roundabouts-city-wants-lead-culture-tech-42699">city of roundabouts</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concrete_Cows">concrete cows</a>, with one architecture critic <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/oct/23/ruins-britain-owen-hatherley-review">calling it</a> “the doomed apotheosis of the fossil-fuel society”.</p>
<p>Today, its designers’ desire to accommodate extremely high levels of car use can be viewed as an environmentally irresponsible planning stance. But despite its detractors, Milton Keynes has proved extremely successful both economically and socially, and today has a growing reputation for being at the forefront of a <a href="https://www.milton-keynes.gov.uk/news/2023/major-boost-advanced-rapid-transport-mk">more climate-friendly era of transport innovation</a>.</p>
<p>Recently, its planners have grappled with the need for a new type of public transport – something that is “demand responsive” in the way of a taxi, but without taxi-level fares.</p>
<p>Demand-responsive transport (DRT) services have been attempted by public authorities over the years – but <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/19345/1/">largely without success</a>. A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/referencework/9780081026724/international-encyclopedia-of-transportation">global assessment</a> in 2021 concluded that when a new DRT service is set up, revenue from the low number of passengers could not cover the running costs, particularly those of the driver and back-office systems.</p>
<p>One early example was the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/2399505.stm">Corlink DRT service</a> in north Cornwall, which launched in 2002 to link rural communities with towns. The subsidy cost of over £28 per passenger trip was financially unsustainable and when special government support for the project ended, the service was withdrawn.</p>
<p>The Taxibus service to Bicester rail station, which launched around the same time, ran flexible routes off-peak and, by late 2003, was carrying 50,000 passengers a year. But even then, the service was eventually withdrawn as commercially unviable.</p>
<p>Twenty years on, however, Milton Keynes has addressed <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/85542/1/Corrected%20proofs%20TCP%20DRT%20article.pdf">the cost problem</a>, at least, with its DRT service, <a href="https://getaroundmk.org.uk/on-board/mk-connect">MK Connect</a>. Facing the familiar situation of decreased funding to support the rising cost of uneconomic bus services, the city council opted not to implement cuts. Instead, it replaced its subsidised routes with a new demand-responsive service in partnership with the international tech company <a href="https://ridewithvia.com/about?lang=en-gb">Via Transportation</a>. Introduced in 2021, MK Connect still requires a subsidy, but <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/85542/">half that of the conventional bus services</a> it replaced.</p>
<p>The service is booked by users like an Uber taxi, logging their pick-up and drop-off addresses through a smartphone app, web portal or by phoning the contact centre. The app directs users to a nearby pick-up point, and they are dropped near their destination. Other passengers may be picked up and dropped off along the way.</p>
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<p>The vehicles are small: as well as the fleet of eight-seater vans (many of which are electric), some cars are used. They generally arrive within 30 minutes of a booking being made, though the wait can be longer at busy times and in more rural areas. Fares are similar to that of traditional buses (payment is cashless), and the service covers the whole Milton Keynes city area – with far better coverage and operating times than the limited bus routes the service replaced.</p>
<p>An important feature is that the app will not allow someone to book on MK Connect if they could use a commercial bus route for their trip instead. In these cases, travellers are informed where to catch the conventional bus and when it will arrive. This ensures that MK Connect does not adversely affect existing viable bus routes, while improving the city’s public transport as a whole. Equally, if people cannot use existing buses due to a disability or other reason, they can register this and will always be accommodated on MK Connect.</p>
<p>The service is widely used, with some 40,000 trips being made each month (almost half a million each year) – a level of use that means its finances stack up. MK Connect has enabled trips to be made that previously were difficult or impossible using conventional buses, including for a man with sight loss who is the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQYnJ41CmTY">subject of a widely shared video</a>.</p>
<p>One of us – Stephen – has used MK Connect on a number of occasions, and offers this mixed review of his experiences of the service:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I booked a trip to get to the barbers for a haircut. You can only book an hour or so beforehand, but I found a service that would get me there on time, which picked me up from the end of our road (the app guided me to the exact pick-up point). One other person joined us on the way and another was dropped off en route, but I got to my drop-off point in time for a three-minute walk across to the barbers. Coming back was less smooth, though. Initially, I was refused a booking – no vehicles were available. I waited a few minutes and tried again. This time I got a vehicle, after a 50-minute wait …</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This mixed experience reflects the feedback that has been given in various <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/85542/1/Corrected%20proofs%20TCP%20DRT%20article.pdf">passenger surveys</a>. MK Connect is designed to serve modern, dispersed patterns of travel demands but is by no means perfect – some people find it harder to use than the buses it replaced, and there are problems with the vehicles being full at busy times, meaning prospective passengers are refused a booking or not accommodated for a long time. The booking system is also not yet reliable enough when a person has to get to an appointment or college lecture on time, say, or to connect with a specific train.</p>
<p>However, generally speaking, regular users appear to be getting used to the new system and its quirks. The real benefit to them, of course, is that this DRT service allows them to make trips that would be much more difficult, or impossible, using traditional route buses.</p>
<p>Another recently launched DRT, <a href="https://www.intelligenttransport.com/transport-articles/132018/transport-accessibility-hertslynx-drt-hertfordshire/">HertsLynx</a>, aims to serve the rural fringes of Hertfordshire using four electric-powered, 16-seater minibuses in an operating zone centred around the market town of Buntingford and surrounding villages. Passengers are able to travel between 250 virtual bus stops, as well as nearby towns including Stevenage, Hitchin, Letchworth and Baldock – although travel to these towns is limited to fixed points (hospitals, train and bus stations, and high streets).</p>
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<p>HertsLynx now makes 2,600 passenger trips a month and, like MK Connect, booking is by app, online or phone. With only four buses, it has hit a similar issue to MK Connect of being unable to take some trip requests when vehicles are fully in use, as noted in this <a href="https://busandtrainuser.com/2023/07/30/the-drt-renowned-for-its-success/">recent review</a>.</p>
<p>These two prototype services suggest a good model is emerging for local public transport, but that it needs refining. DRT services can best serve more dispersed trips, while conventional buses work well when a regular, predictable arrival time is needed and in situations of high demand. A good mix of the two is what is needed and Milton Keynes and HertsLynx, while heading that way, haven’t yet achieved it. Adding a in a <a href="https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/its-a-new-dawn-for-27759901">Manchester-style regulation structure</a> might well do that. </p>
<h2>The future of local public transport?</h2>
<p>As the Brennan Monorail flop illustrated more than a century ago, predicting the future is a dangerous thing. But there is clearly potential to <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-visions-for-the-future-of-public-transport-125443">rethink public transport systems</a> all over the world, in a way that makes a real difference to the planet and quality of daily life – by improving mobility while reducing costs, air pollution and congestion levels.</p>
<p>This revolution is being driven by a range of organisations, spanning powerful technology companies and IT startups as well as the existing public transport industry and both national and local policymakers. Central to a more diversified public transport future is easily accessed information and payment systems that allow users to customise different services for their own travel needs. Personalised apps on mobile devices to book and pay for public transport services will become increasingly important.</p>
<p>If you combine digital planning and payment systems, autonomous driving and a DRT service redesign, then a radically better form of public transport starts to emerge. Without the need for a driver, fixed-route buses could be smaller but run more frequently. Combined with DRT services to cover more dispersed trips, the potentially transformative, “small vehicle-small infrastructure” vision of public transport systems comes into place.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-public-transport-will-change-our-approach-to-city-planning-and-living-35520">Driverless public transport will change our approach to city planning – and living</a>
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</em>
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<p>The result could be that, rather than people needing to adjust their behaviour to the schedules and routes of a bus or metro, they can travel directly, whenever they want, on services operating 24/7 – overcoming the poor quality of infrequent evening, night and Sunday public transport services experienced today.</p>
<p>All that said, the future may still not end up quite as automated as <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/digital-development/automated-transport-could-propel-development-forward-can-we-turn-vision-reality">some technologists predict</a>. Driverless vehicles overseen by control centres cost an awful lot to set up and run, and this may limit the use of driverless bus and taxi systems to where use is high enough to make the sums add up – in other words, major cities. For a good while yet, public transport vehicles in most medium-sized UK towns, as well as rural areas, are likely to remain manually driven.</p>
<p>Rather than trying to jump straight to an IT-driverless ideal, a phased introduction of upgradable, adaptable system designs makes more sense. In this way, the spectre of the Brennan Monorail should remain a useful reminder that not all technological advances will change our world for the better, and there is a real danger that second-best fixes could impede potentially transformative change. This is a journey that has only just started – and it’s going to be a bumpy ride.</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
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<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/12-best-ways-to-get-cars-out-of-cities-ranked-by-new-research-180642?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">12 best ways to get cars out of cities – ranked by new research</a></em></p></li>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Amid bus route cuts and rail strikes, can the answer to our future public transport needs be found in the hi-tech prototypes being trialled around the UK?Stephen Potter, Professor of Transport Strategy, The Open UniversityMatthew Cook, Professor of Innovation, The Open UniversityMiguel Valdez, Lecturer in Technology and Innovation Management, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2010882023-03-23T01:45:34Z2023-03-23T01:45:34ZWe were told we’d be riding in self-driving cars by now. What happened to the promised revolution?<p>According to <a href="https://electrek.co/2015/12/21/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-drops-prediction-full-autonomous-driving-from-3-years-to-2/">predictions</a> <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/lyfts-president-says-car-ownership-will-all-but-end-by-2025">made</a> nearly a decade ago, we should be riding around in self-driving vehicles today. It’s now clear the autonomous vehicle revolution was overhyped. </p>
<p>Proponents woefully underestimated the technological challenges. It turns out developing a truly driverless vehicle is hard. </p>
<p>The other factor driving the hype was the amount of money being invested in autonomous vehicle startups. By 2021, it was estimated more than <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/02/04/self-driving-cars-why/">US$100 billion</a> in venture capital had gone into developing the technology. </p>
<p>While advances are being made, it is important to understand there are multiple levels of autonomy. Only one is truly driverless. As established by <a href="https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update">SAE International</a>, the levels are: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>level 0 — the driver has to undertake all driving tasks</p></li>
<li><p>level 1, hands on/shared control — vehicle has basic driver-assist features such as cruise control and lane-keeping</p></li>
<li><p>level 2, hands off – vehicle has advanced driver-assist features such as emergency braking, adaptive cruise control, auto park assist and traffic-jam assist</p></li>
<li><p>level 3, eyes off — vehicle drives itself some of the time</p></li>
<li><p>level 4, mind off — vehicle drives itself most of the time</p></li>
<li><p>level 5, steering wheel option — vehicle drives itself all the time.</p></li>
</ul>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/billions-are-pouring-into-mobility-technology-will-the-transport-revolution-live-up-to-the-hype-131154">Billions are pouring into mobility technology – will the transport revolution live up to the hype?</a>
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<h2>Why the slow progress?</h2>
<p>It’s estimated the technology to deliver safe autonomous vehicles is about <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/mar/27/how-self-driving-cars-got-stuck-in-the-slow-lane">80% developed</a>. The last 20% is increasingly difficult. It will take a lot more time to perfect.</p>
<p>Challenges yet to be resolved involve unusual and rare events that can happen along any street or highway. They include weather, wildlife crossing the road, and highway construction. </p>
<p>Another set of problems has emerged since <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmainwaring/2022/08/22/cruise-ride-hailing-goes-green-and-driverless/?sh=6a7439376843">Cruise</a> and <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/19/23467784/waymo-provide-fully-driverless-rides-san-francisco-california">Waymo</a> launched their autonomous ride-hailing services in San Francisco. The US National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/16/cruises-autonomous-driving-tech-comes-under-scrutiny-from-safety-regulators/">opened an investigation</a> in December 2022, only six months after the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/03/california-driverless-taxi-cars-san-francisco">services were approved</a>. It cited incidents where these vehicles “may have engaged in inappropriately hard braking or became immobilized”. </p>
<p>The San Francisco County Transportation Authority <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/technology/self-driving-taxi-san-francisco.html">stated</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[I]n the months since the initial approval of autonomous taxi services in June 2022, Cruise AVs have made unplanned and unexpected stops in travel lanes, where they obstruct traffic and transit service and intrude into active emergency response scenes, including fire suppression scenes, creating additional hazardous conditions.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In several cases, Cruise technicians had to be called to move the vehicles.</p>
<h2>What’s happening now?</h2>
<p>Active autonomous vehicle initiatives can be grouped into two categories: ride-hailing services (Cruise, Waymo and Uber) and sales to the public (Tesla). </p>
<p>Cruise is a subsidiary of General Motors founded in 2013. As of September 2022, it operated 100 robotaxis in San Francisco and had plans to increase its fleet to 5,000. Critics said this would increase city traffic. </p>
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<p>Cruise also began to offer services in Chandler (a Phoenix suburb), Arizona, and Austin, Texas, in December 2022. </p>
<p>Waymo, formerly the Google Self-Driving Car Project, was founded in January 2009. The company lost <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/11/23453262/waymo-av-driverless-taxi-phoenix-california-dmv-progress">US$4.8 billion in 2020 and US$5.2 billion in 2021</a>. </p>
<p>Waymo One provides autonomous ride-hailing services in <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/28/23617278/waymo-self-driving-driverless-crashes-av">Phoenix as well as San Francisco</a>. It plans to expand into <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/19/23410677/waymo-los-angeles-autonomous-robotaxi-service-launch">Los Angeles</a> this year. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-what-weve-learned-from-experiments-in-san-francisco-and-phoenix-199319">Driverless cars: what we've learned from experiments in San Francisco and Phoenix</a>
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<p>Uber was a major force in autonomous vehicle development as part of its business plan was to replace human drivers. However, it ran into problems, including a crash in March 2018 when a self-driving Uber killed a woman walking her bicycle across a street in Tempe, Arizona. In 2020, Arizona Uber sold its AV research division to Aurora Innovation. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-self-driving-cars-crash-whos-responsible-courts-and-insurers-need-to-know-whats-inside-the-black-box-180334">When self-driving cars crash, who's responsible? Courts and insurers need to know what's inside the 'black box'</a>
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<p>But in October 2022 Uber got back into autonomous vehicles by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2022/10/06/motional-and-uber-announce-10-year-deal-to-deploy-automated-vehicles-in-multiple-us-markets/?sh=44d83a84273e">signing a deal</a> with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv. Motional will provide autonomous vehicles for Uber’s ride-hailing and delivery services.</p>
<p>Lyft, the second-largest ride-sharing company after Uber, operates in the US and Canada. Like Uber, Lyft had a self-driving unit and in 2016, Lyft co-founder John Zimmer <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/lyfts-president-says-car-ownership-will-all-but-end-by-2025">predicted</a> that by 2021 the majority of rides on its network would be in such vehicles (and private car ownership would “all but end” by 2025). It didn’t happen. By 2021, Lyft had also <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/04/26/lyft-sells-self-driving-unit-to-toyotas-woven-planet-for-550m/">sold its self-driving vehicle unit</a>, to Toyota. </p>
<p>In 2022, Zimmer <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/20/lyft-co-founder-says-autonomous-vehicles-wont-replace-drivers-for-at-least-a-decade/">said</a> the technology would not replace drivers for at least a decade. However, Lyft did partner with Motional in August 2022 to launch <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lyft-and-motional-deliver-the-first-rides-in-motionals-new-all-electric-ioniq-5-autonomous-vehicle-301606519.html">robotaxis in Las Vegas</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/lyft-motional-launch-robotaxi-service-los-angeles-2022-11-17/">Los Angeles</a>. </p>
<p>Telsa is the <a href="https://www.ev-volumes.com/">world leader in sales</a> of battery electric vehicles. It also purports to sell vehicles with full automation. However, by the end of 2022, no level 3, 4 or 5 vehicles were for sale in the United States.</p>
<p>What Telsa offers is a full self-driving system as a US$15,000 option. Buyers acknowledge they are buying a beta version and assume all risks. If the system malfunctions, Telsa does not accept any responsibility. </p>
<p>In February 2023, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration <a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/16/tesla-recall-full-self-driving-cars">found</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[Fully self-driving] beta software that allows a vehicle to exceed speed limits or travel through intersections in an unlawful or unpredictable manner increases the risk of a crash. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This led to Tesla <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/16/tesla-recall-full-self-driving-cars">recalling 362,000 vehicles</a> to update the software. </p>
<p>Another setback for autonomous vehicle sales to the public was the October 2022 announcement that Ford and VW had decided to <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/26/ford-vw-backed-argo-ai-is-shutting-down/">stop funding autonomous driving technology company Argo AI</a>, resulting in its closure. Both Ford and VW decided to shift their focus from level 4 automation to levels 2 and 3.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/self-driving-cars-are-still-a-long-way-off-here-are-three-reasons-why-159234">'Self-driving' cars are still a long way off. Here are three reasons why</a>
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<h2>So, what can we expect next?</h2>
<p>Autonomous vehicle development will continue, but with less hype. It’s being recognised as more an evolutionary process than a revolutionary one. The increasing cost of capital will also make it harder for autonomous vehicle startups to get development funds. </p>
<p>The areas that appear to be making the best progress are autonomous ride-hailing and heavy vehicles. Self-driving car sales to the public are <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/level-4-self-driving-technology-mercedes-benz/">further down the track</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201088/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil G Sipe receives funding from the Australian Research Council Linkage Program. </span></em></p>The autonomous vehicle revolution was, according to its proponents, meant to have transformed daily travel by now. But they underestimated the task of developing a safe, truly driverless vehicle.Neil G Sipe, Honorary Professor of Planning, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1261112019-11-27T18:42:19Z2019-11-27T18:42:19ZDriverless vehicles and pedestrians don’t mix. So how do we re-arrange our cities?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303676/original/file-20191126-112512-2id8ki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C4000%2C2568&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Autonomous vehicles can only travel at speed at close quarters in the absence of human drivers, cyclists and pedestrians.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/search">posteriori/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Videos showing autonomous or self-driving vehicles weaving in and out of crossroads at speed without colliding suggest this technology will solve traffic problems. You almost never see pedestrians or cyclists in these videos. The reality is that they don’t fit.</p>
<p>The vision of autonomous traffic is either of a large convoy of vehicles just a metre apart moving along road corridors at 100km/h, or of vehicles in an urban setting where their sensors are picking up every pedestrian movement and slowing or stopping. In the first case, the vehicles form an impenetrable barrier to pedestrians or cyclists (who, like on a freeway, will probably be banned). In the second case, pedestrians and cyclists are able to ruin traffic flow and are <a href="https://theconversation.com/nothing-to-fear-how-humans-and-other-intelligent-animals-might-ruin-the-autonomous-vehicle-utopia-114504">likely to just take over streets</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">What’s missing from the demonstration of autonomous vehicles flowing through an intersection is the human element of cyclists and pedestrians.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nothing-to-fear-how-humans-and-other-intelligent-animals-might-ruin-the-autonomous-vehicle-utopia-114504">Nothing to fear? How humans (and other intelligent animals) might ruin the autonomous vehicle utopia</a>
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<p>It occurs to me this is a really good thing for our cities. I worried that the vision some had (mostly car makers, I suspect) was of a city completely taken over by self-driving vehicles.</p>
<p>All public transport would be gone as thousands of these vehicles scattered along every street looking for on-demand passengers. Historic centres and tram corridors would be ruined and we would no longer be able to appreciate their walkable character.</p>
<p>However, we may instead be able to take the best features of autonomous mobility technology to create cities that are more productive, liveable, inclusive and sustainable.</p>
<h2>How would we do this?</h2>
<p>The first thing is to realise that for 20-30 years cities around the world have been <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/end-automobile-dependence">getting rid of cars in their centres</a> and subcentres, drawing on the ideas of urban designers like <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/cities-people">Jan Gehl</a>. This trend includes Australian cities. These centres are where the knowledge economy workers who drive innovation want to live and work. </p>
<p>Cities are not going to easily give up their cherished walkability to thousands of self-driving vehicles. Cities mostly are planning more walkable centres with even more public transport and fewer cars; they are unlikely to yield to autonomous vehicle ideology. </p>
<p>It’s more likely cities will ban self-driving vehicles from these centres, with just one small entry and exit point to enable vehicle access. Cities will not want to kill off the economic and social golden goose of walkable centres, let alone abandon climate change plans to reduce car use.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-driverless-vehicles-should-not-be-given-unchecked-access-to-our-cities-102724">Why driverless vehicles should not be given unchecked access to our cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The second thing is that these active walkable centres are being heavily supported by quality public transport. Fortunately, autonomous technology is also being applied to transit services such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trackless-trams-are-ready-to-replace-light-rail-103690">trackless tram</a>. These are guided but not driverless, like <a href="https://urbantransportnews.com/worlds-fastest-high-speed-driverless-bullet-train-starts-service-in-china/">high-speed rail</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-31/driverless-trains-embraced-around-the-globe-what-could-go-wrong/11155858">metros</a>, as they need drivers at times. </p>
<p>Not only could autonomous technology improve transit services, it could also take over some major road corridors that are failing at peak times. This could create an alternative rapid transit route <a href="https://theconversation.com/going-down-the-same-old-road-driverless-cars-arent-a-fix-for-our-transport-woes-50912">carrying the equivalent of six to eight lanes of traffic</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data source: author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘movement and place’ approach</h2>
<p>Around the world and in Australia, cities are looking to make roads into combined “<a href="https://www.governmentarchitect.nsw.gov.au/guidance/movement-and-place">movement and place</a>” sites – some places will remain highly walkable and some will be just for movement but special corridors will be for both so they<a href="https://transport.vic.gov.au/our-transport-future/movement-and-place-in-victoria">keep people and goods moving and are places for people to live, work and enjoy</a>. This approach gives priority to fast public transport using light rail or trackless trams combined with higher-density development around their stations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trackless-trams-v-light-rail-its-not-a-contest-both-can-improve-our-cities-125134">Trackless trams v light rail? It's not a contest – both can improve our cities</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<p>The big issue on such corridors is how to get rid of cars so mass transit services have a fast, free lane to travel along as well as walkable station precincts to enter. Such a system would be much more efficient in traffic terms, but car users don’t easily give up their right to space.</p>
<p>However, the inherent problem with self-driving vehicles is that they will make a corridor impenetrable and travel through a dense precinct ridiculously slow and unpredictable. The politics will therefore shift towards a fast transit corridor along main roads together with walkable, car-free station precincts. </p>
<p>Self-driving cars can help make the fast corridor work as they are ideal for bringing on-demand passengers to the precincts where people can access local services and transfer to the fast transit line. This integrated service enables the best of both mobility solutions: fast and effective access, without destroying either the corridor or centres, and an on-demand local service as shown below.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Each centre will have micro-mobility options feeding into the transit system and the station precinct services. These options will provide “first mile-last mile” connectivity on demand. They include walking, electric bikes, scooters, skateboards and autonomous shuttles or cars that travel to and from the centre along a specific isolated route. </p>
<p>Certain main roads would have to be declared as clearways for autonomous electric transit, with a set of stations serving high-density centres for urban regeneration. Autonomous vehicles could reign supreme out in the suburbs that were built around the car, but would not interfere with existing or new transit corridors as well as the historic and new centres where pedestrians would reign supreme. Such is the vision of the City of Liverpool for a <a href="https://www.liverpool.nsw.gov.au/development/major-projects/fifteenth-avenue-smart-transit-fast-corridor">trackless tram route to Western Sydney Airport</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dowlQaebqRQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Liverpool City Council’s vision of an autonomous transit link to Western Sydney Airport.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This vision is not anti-autonomous vehicles. It is enabling innovations to serve us rather than being our master. We cannot simply give up our cities to cars just when we are learning to overcome such dependence. </p>
<p>To make the most of autonomous vehicles’ advantages and avoid the disadvantages, we must choose to shape our cities. Autonomous transit services with feed-in autonomous cars and micro-mobility can achieve the walkability and civility we need for a good city in the future. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/utopia-or-nightmare-the-answer-lies-in-how-we-embrace-self-driving-electric-and-shared-vehicles-90920">Utopia or nightmare? The answer lies in how we embrace self-driving, electric and shared vehicles</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126111/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Newman receives funding from the Sustainable Built Environment national research centre (SBEnrc) that works with some local and state governments on these issues.</span></em></p>Self-driving vehicles that constantly roam the streets looking for passengers could overwhelm cities. But, if kept in check, these vehicles could be useful for improving urban transport.Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1258742019-11-03T18:54:58Z2019-11-03T18:54:58ZHow we feel about our cars means the road to a driverless future may not be smooth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299369/original/file-20191030-138168-hq8p3r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Car owners' attachment to driving and the willingness of others to switch from public transport could confound rosy predictions for autonomous vehicles.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/adelaide-south-australia-july-27-2019-1466462240?src=srX7g0tCsTO2lfuw4YzG9Q-1-15">Steven Giles/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a reasonable expectation that autonomous vehicles will dominate the future of transport. Utopian visions suggest these driverless vehicles will lead to dramatic changes to our cities and their transportation. </p>
<p>Autonomous vehicles operating on a network would allow traffic to move safely and seamlessly through cities. They would use less space per vehicle. Traffic flow would be unhindered by traffic lights or other traditional driver signals. </p>
<p>More efficient transportation would use less fuel. Urban spaces could be repurposed as parking needs virtually disappear.</p>
<p>But this utopian vision depends on a range of factors. In particular, these predictions largely rely on how current car drivers respond to the advent of autonomous vehicles. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Our research</a> suggests people’s attitudes to driving and their cars could limit the predicted benefits to traffic flow and city efficiency, at least during the initial transition to driverless vehicles. </p>
<h2>What did the research look at?</h2>
<p>The research uses the city of Adelaide as a test case. We surveyed commuter preferences for the acceptance and use of driverless vehicles, as compared with their current preferences. </p>
<p>We then developed two scenarios. One is for the medium to long term, when vehicles are fully autonomous. The other is for the short-term transitional phase, during which a mix of conventional and driverless vehicles share the roads. </p>
<p>Using traffic-flow data for Adelaide, we analysed the implications of a shift towards driverless vehicles for: </p>
<ul>
<li>traffic flow</li>
<li>the number of vehicles needed to service commuter demands</li>
<li>parking</li>
<li>broader land use in the city centre.</li>
</ul>
<p>Adelaide is unusual, as a result of its <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/18907622?q&versionId=45120027">history as a planned city</a>, in having a discrete number of entry and exit points. This allows us to map more accurately average daily traffic flows into and out of the city centre. </p>
<p>Our analysis focuses on three of the city’s gateways, as shown below. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The three Adelaide city gateways analysed for the research.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We measured flows through these intersections on a typical day. Using minute-by-minute real-time data, monitored at traffic signals, we created a picture of typical traffic flows into and out of the CBD. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traffic flows at gateway site into and out of Adelaide city (Unley Rd/South Terrace).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adelaide City Council</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also surveyed commuters to discern their current transport preferences versus their perceptions of the hypothetical future. </p>
<p>Combining this information, we then describe possible outcomes of the transition to automated vehicles.</p>
<h2>What did the survey find?</h2>
<p>Below is a summary of the survey of a representative sample of 526 regular commuters into the Adelaide CBD.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Data: How Might Autonomous Vehicles Impact the City?</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We queried respondents’ willingness to carshare by taking advantage of common knowledge of real-world company Uber. </p>
<p>We also investigated respondents’ attitudes by positing a scenario in which driverless vehicles are the norm and conventional driving is a luxury. We assessed likely resistance to autonomous vehicles by considering their willingness to pay to continue to drive traditional vehicles in this scenario. </p>
<p>Key results are shown below. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Data: How Might Autonomous Vehicles Impact the City?</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Attitudes and costs will shape transition</h2>
<p>Two observations flow from the responses. </p>
<p>First, it seems likely drivers’ prevailing attitudes to vehicle ownership may be influencing their attitudes to autonomous vehicles. For many, their car represents a status symbol. They feel a strong personal attachment to it.</p>
<p>Second, cost may be a crucial factor in take-up of driverless vehicles. As costs fall, most commuters might bow to financial pressure to shift to autonomous vehicles. However, a minority might lobby to keep a mix of driverless and conventional vehicles on the road.</p>
<p>Our analysis suggests Adelaide could reduce its current vehicle fleet by as much as 76% in the utopian driverless future. This is due to current high car dependence and long commuting times and distances at peak periods. </p>
<p>Yet some predicted benefits, notably the very large reduction in vehicle numbers and better traffic flows, might not be achieved in the near to medium term. This is due to uncertainty about how the transition to a totally driverless city will be achieved and how long it will take. </p>
<p>Key factors are commuter attitudes to driving and autonomous vehicles, the price of the technology, and consumer attitudes to car sharing. Attitudes to car ownership and driving appear to be central to how the transition will play out. </p>
<p>The survey suggests the pleasure of driving themselves, which a substantial minority of Adelaide drivers are unwilling to forgo, could limit the benefits that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2018.1466835">much of the academic literature</a> optimistically predicts. </p>
<p>Public transport may also be adversely affected as riders switch to driverlesss vehicles. This shift could increase vehicle flows in peak periods, making congestion worse during the transition to complete adoption. </p>
<p>We support the <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-vehicles-could-bring-out-the-best-or-worst-in-our-cities-by-transforming-land-use-84127">oft-suggested</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/utopia-or-nightmare-the-answer-lies-in-how-we-embrace-self-driving-electric-and-shared-vehicles-90920">argument</a> that large-scale adoption of driverless vehicles risks stimulating an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-driverless-vehicles-should-not-be-given-unchecked-access-to-our-cities-102724">increase in urban sprawl</a>. In the city centre, parking demand is likely to reduce greatly, allowing more diverse land uses and intensification of economic activity. But parking outside the CBD might increase, as driverless vehicles need not park near their users’ or owners’ workplace, at the expense of amenity. </p>
<p>Our analysis strongly suggests urban policy will be needed to counter the potential negative effects of introducing driverless vehicles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raul A. Barreto does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scenarios based on a survey of Adelaide commuters and analyses of traffic flows show it’s possible the congestion could get worse in the transition to driverless vehicles.Raul A. Barreto, Senior Lecturer, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1066462018-11-13T12:06:58Z2018-11-13T12:06:58ZDriverless cars may make you sick – but there’s a fix<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245280/original/file-20181113-194488-1wdin93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-woman-reading-magazine-autonomous-car-670459006?src=1FA7XxP43IWWuDaK8TnMAg-1-9">Metamorworks/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Driverless cars will usher in a transport utopia, at least according to many of their proponents. Concept art for these futuristic vehicles often show passengers <a href="https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz/innovation/research-vehicle-f-015-luxury-in-motion/">sat facing each other</a>, reading, working or enjoying <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/jan/05/netflix-and-chill-driving-to-work-volvo-streaming">some other activity</a> as their car does the driving for them. I would argue that one of the main attractions of an automated vehicle is being able to do something else while you’re safely and comfortably transported to your destination.</p>
<p>But my PhD research suggests we’ll never be as comfortable or productive as these visions portray without finding a way to combat motion sickness. Just as passengers in human-driven cars can easily feel sick if they don’t look out the window, giving up control to a self-driving vehicle to focus on something else will likely to lead to queasiness.</p>
<p>In one recent experiment, my colleagues and I found that facing backwards in a driverless car increases motion sickness symptoms in 100% of passengers during normal urban driving. This echoes <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/001401399185586">previous research</a> that shows not being able to see out the front of a vehicle can worsen motion sickness.</p>
<p>In another experiment, again echoing <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2011.07.005">other research</a>, we found that ability to perform a simple reading task was reduced by 40%, simply by being driven around at normal speeds on a normal urban route. However, we’ve also found that there might be technological ways to combat this problem.</p>
<p>Motion sickness is caused by a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0361923098001154">conflict</a> between the signals from our different senses. When our eyes observe the environment, our inner ears sense if we are moving. When the two signals do not match then we are more likely to develop motion sickness.</p>
<p>For example, if you read a book in a car, your eyes see the stationary item but your ears tell your brain you are moving. The reverse is also true for so-called <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003687009001574">virtual reality sickness</a>, where your eyes are immersed in a rich tapestry of information that tells you you are moving, but your inner ears can’t detect any movement, leading to similar symptoms to motion sickness.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245292/original/file-20181113-194500-11v4vco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245292/original/file-20181113-194500-11v4vco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245292/original/file-20181113-194500-11v4vco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245292/original/file-20181113-194500-11v4vco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245292/original/file-20181113-194500-11v4vco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245292/original/file-20181113-194500-11v4vco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245292/original/file-20181113-194500-11v4vco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Will driverless cars make this sight more common?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-woman-getting-carsickness-652803520?src=0Ha-sfqIOvYgu5bgRYlG7Q-1-91">Metamorworks/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Everyone except the profoundly deaf or those with true <a href="https://vestibular.org/understanding-vestibular-disorder/symptoms">vestibular dysfunction</a> is susceptible to motion sickness. The extent of the problem <a href="http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-319-45430-6">can depend on</a> age, ethnicity, gender and past experiences. For example, Chinese people are generally <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16313141">more sensitive</a> than white Europeans, females are more sensitive than males, and 11-year-olds are the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/001401399185586">most sensitive</a>.</p>
<p>Drivers, however, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016981411630258X">don’t suffer motion sickness</a> because they are aware of the likely future motion of the vehicle, like helmsman on boats. As a result, they tend to do things like tilt their heads against the turn of the car, which counteracts the forces of motion (whereas passengers tend to tilt with the bend).</p>
<p>The main solution to motion sickness is to look at a fixed object in the direction you are travelling so that your eyes send the same signal to your brain about how you are moving as your inner ears do. This means it will be difficult for driverless cars to include rear-facing seats from where you can’t see in the direction of travel.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16087497">Other information</a> that can tell us about the future movement of the vehicle can help minimise motion sickness. This can include voice cues from a satnav, directional lighting showing which way the car is going to turn, and virtual horizons that display where the real horizon would be.</p>
<h2>Stopping sickness</h2>
<p>However, it may be possible to design driverless cars to reduce the chances of motion sickness in the first place. My colleagues and I <a href="https://media.jaguarlandrover.com/news/2018/11/future-jaguar-and-land-rover-vehicles-will-help-reduce-motion-sickness">have demonstrated</a> technology that can reliably predict a passenger’s motion sickness from their vital signs, posture and data from the vehicle for past and predicted future motion. Using this, we can create a personalised recovery programme depending on the individual and what they are doing. We can then adapt the car’s control settings to minimise provocative motion further and maximise passenger comfort.</p>
<p>We have also been researching how a small <a href="http://booksandjournals.brillonline.com/content/journals/10.1163/22134808-00002545">vibration device</a> located just behind the ear can lengthen the time it takes the most sensitive people to start feeling motion sickness in a driverless cabin. Such a device could, for shorter journeys at least, enable you to avoid motion sickness without having to look out the window, and without the side-effects of medication.</p>
<p>Future research will focus on how we can train people to gradually get used to riding and eventually multi-tasking in a driverless car so they experience less motion sickness. We also want to gather passengers’ biometric data in more remote and discreet ways, and use artificial intelligence to assess this information to work out how well they are doing with the training and adjust it accordingly. Hopefully by enabling passengers to do other things while riding, we can stop feeling sick from being a barrier to the driverless revolution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106646/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Spencer Salter works for Jaguar Land Rover as a Senior Research Manager and is currently studying a full time PhD.</span></em></p>New anti-sickness technology is needed for driverless cars to deliver on the promise of letting us read, work or watch films while we travel.Spencer Salter, PhD Candidate in Transport and Mobility, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1027242018-09-12T20:12:47Z2018-09-12T20:12:47ZWhy driverless vehicles should not be given unchecked access to our cities<p>Autonomous, or driverless, vehicles can support and promote <a href="https://atap.gov.au/mode-specific-guidance/active-travel/2-key-characteristics-of-active-travel.aspx">active travel</a>, such as walking and cycling, when two basic conditions are met:</p>
<ol>
<li>their access to cities is restricted</li>
<li>their use is pooled.</li>
</ol>
<p>In the absence of these two conditions, autonomous vehicles could lead to a decline in active travel in cities and an increase in economic, social and environmental costs. Potential costs are rarely mentioned in the rhetoric about autonomous vehicles, much of which is highly optimistic. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/going-down-the-same-old-road-driverless-cars-arent-a-fix-for-our-transport-woes-50912">Going down the same old road: driverless cars aren't a fix for our transport woes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, universal or widespread access to the city by autonomous vehicles could result in detrimental outcomes. Not least of these impacts are on <a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-health-at-the-heart-of-sustainability-policy-7914">active travel</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/fat-of-the-land-how-urban-design-can-help-curb-obesity-6445">public health</a>. Depending on the conditions under which autonomous vehicles are allowed to operate in the city, we can expect a range of impacts with direct or indirect implications for walking and cycling.</p>
<h2>How could these vehicles have harmful impacts?</h2>
<p>Currently, access to or from public transport stops usually involves a short walk or cycle ride for many people. In the future, some people might choose to use autonomous vehicles to reach the bus, train or tram stop instead of walking or cycling. Or they might choose to move away from public transport and switch to autonomous vehicles completely. Clearly, both situations would reduce active travel.</p>
<p>At present, most people get in or out of their cars in car parks. In the future, autonomous vehicles can deliver passengers to their destinations without needing to park there. After drop-off, autonomous vehicles will take themselves to another part of the city where parking is cheap or free. Or they may go on to pick up someone else. </p>
<p>One possible consequence is that existing road infrastructure – carriageway or parking space – will be reallocated for passenger drop-off and pick-up. This would leave little or no extra space for pedestrians and cyclists.</p>
<p>Although autonomous vehicles could <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-autonomous-cars-really-safer-than-human-drivers-90202">increase road safety</a>, they might be segregated from other road users to reduce disruptions (deliberate or otherwise) and increase the predictability of autonomous vehicle flow. </p>
<p>Segregation of transport modes would mean pedestrians or cyclists are only allowed to cross autonomous vehicle lanes at specific points, either via signalled crossings or bridges and tunnels. This will reduce accessibility for pedestrians or cyclists. An urban structure will be created that is less “permeable” for active transport, with routes that are less direct than they could be. </p>
<p>Ultimately, by offering opportunities for recreation, work or even sleep during car journeys (instead of driving), autonomous vehicles might <a href="https://theconversation.com/utopia-or-nightmare-the-answer-lies-in-how-we-embrace-self-driving-electric-and-shared-vehicles-90920">increase the travel time and distance</a> that people consider acceptable. The frequency of car trips might increase too. And, as vehicles spend longer on the road, requirements for road infrastructure capacity might also increase. </p>
<p>In the longer term, if people are willing to travel further, homes and jobs might be relocated. This would fuel urban sprawl and reduce the viability of public transport services. Lower public transport use will be detrimental for active travel and public health.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Impacts of different levels of vehicle access and ownership.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Diagram by Dominic Stead</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/fat-of-the-land-how-urban-design-can-help-curb-obesity-6445">Fat of the land: how urban design can help curb obesity</a></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-health-at-the-heart-of-sustainability-policy-7914">Putting health at the heart of sustainability policy</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Limit access for urban well-being</h2>
<p>Overcoming the negative consequences of autonomous vehicles requires first and foremost strong restrictions on their access within the city. This should be much more limited than it is for conventional cars. Access should be restricted to specific nodes and axes in the city. </p>
<p>Exceptions would apply to certain users and situations. Examples include <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-could-change-lives-for-disabled-people-if-we-let-them-30286">passengers with disabilities</a>, emergency services, construction and maintenance, and deliveries of heavy goods. </p>
<p>The underlying logic should be to channel autonomous vehicle traffic along a limited number of corridors in the city, and to locate pick-up and drop-off points at key nodes along these corridors. These nodes should be well served by high-frequency public transport services. They should also be well connected to a dense network of attractive pedestrian and cycle infrastructure. </p>
<p>The aim is to promote fast and efficient node-to-node journeys, as in the image below, rather than door-to-door journeys. Nodes should be distributed around the city according to a hierarchy. </p>
<p>Locating minor nodes around one kilometre apart would mean the maximum distance to reach the nearest node is 500 metres. This is generally considered to be an acceptable walking distance in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit-oriented_development">transit oriented development</a>. </p>
<p>Major nodes can be located several kilometres apart. These serve as multi-modal transit centres that provide connections to train and/or bus services. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Schematic representation showing restricted access of vehicles to designated urban corridors and nodes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Restricting traffic access to certain streets in the city will provide space that can be used almost exclusively for active transport. </p>
<p>A future where autonomous vehicle ownership is pooled will have more economic, social and environmental benefits for cities. Pooling vehicles will clearly reduce the number of vehicles needed to serve the city. This in turn will mean less infrastructure is needed to accommodate them. </p>
<p>However, even if autonomous vehicles are individually owned, controlling access to selected nodes and axes in the city can still have benefits for the city and its citizens. </p>
<p>Australian cities need to be prepared for widespread autonomous vehicle use before it happens. This includes being prepared for more active transport. At the moment <a href="https://home.kpmg.com/au/en/home/insights/2018/01/2018-autonomous-vehicles-readiness-index.html">Australia is not as ready</a> as many countries in Europe and North America. Readiness requires more research, planning and preparation soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominic Stead advises on a project funded by the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Kimpton receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iderlina Mateo-Babiano receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Myer Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorina Pojani receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Corcoran receives funding from the Australian Research Council.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Sipe receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Myer Foundation. </span></em></p>To maximise the benefits and limit the costs, the use of autonomous vehicles should be pooled and their access to the city restricted.Dominic Stead, Delft University of TechnologyAnthony Kimpton, Casual Lecturer in Urban Sociology and Geography, The University of QueenslandDerlie Mateo-Babiano, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneDorina Pojani, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of QueenslandJonathan Corcoran, Professor, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of QueenslandNeil G Sipe, Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/985852018-06-21T12:38:58Z2018-06-21T12:38:58ZDriverless cars offer new forms of control – no wonder governments are keen<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224242/original/file-20180621-137708-1xnq043.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sensing-system-wireless-communication-network-vehicle-1018721329?src=HD_B-Us8Kjqki9quLCaxkA-2-43">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine a state-of-the-art driverless car is zipping along a road with a disabled 90-year-old-passenger. A young mother with a toddler steps into the road. The car must make a decision: drive into the mother and child and kill them, or career into a wall and kill the passenger.</p>
<p>This is a variation of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-trolley-dilemma-would-you-kill-one-person-to-save-five-57111">trolley problem</a>, which dominates academic and popular thinking about the ethics of driverless cars. The problem is that such debates not only dismiss the complexity of the system in which driverless cars will exist, but are really moral red herrings. The real ethical issues lie in the politics and power concerns with driverless cars.</p>
<p>Governments across the world are taking a deep interest in driverless cars. The German government has produced <a href="https://theconversation.com/at-last-the-worlds-first-ethical-guidelines-for-driverless-cars-83227">ethical guidelines for driverless cars</a>. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/19/self-driving-cars-in-uk-by-2021-hammond-budget-announcement">UK government</a> has promised driverless cars on the road by 2021, and the <a href="http://www.ewdn.com/2018/05/14/russia-authorizes-driverless-cars-for-testing-on-public-roads/">Russian government</a> by the end of 2018. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-04/why-china-could-seize-the-lead-in-self-driving-cars">China</a> has ambitious plans to connect driverless cars to the internet and install sensors in roads and traffic lights by 2025.</p>
<p>Most revealing is the way driverless cars feature in the EU’s <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/white_paper_on_the_future_of_europe_en.pdf">white paper on the future of Europe</a> in 2025, published in March 2017. They form a telling part of a snapshot of how Europe might look in a future where EU countries have effectively joined to become one federal superstate. In this scenario, the white paper says, driverless cars will flourish, flitting unhindered across borders from city to city. </p>
<p>There’s a reason why governments are so keen on driverless cars – and it’s not just because of the potential economic benefits. They offer the chance for even greater tracking and even control of citizens’ every move. Far from setting us free, driverless cars threaten to help enable new forms of surveillance and oppression.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224177/original/file-20180621-137746-1wnkj80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224177/original/file-20180621-137746-1wnkj80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224177/original/file-20180621-137746-1wnkj80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224177/original/file-20180621-137746-1wnkj80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224177/original/file-20180621-137746-1wnkj80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224177/original/file-20180621-137746-1wnkj80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224177/original/file-20180621-137746-1wnkj80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sit back and let the government take control.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-woman-reading-book-autonomous-car-671755273">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A driverless car is a <a href="https://www.hpe.com/h30683/ww/en/hpe-technology-now/Connected-cars-and-The-Internet-of-Things_1626140.html#">computer on wheels</a>, the ultimate internet-connected mobile device. Bristling with sensors, it provides a constant two-way flow of information. The car sends information about its performance to the manufacturer. It receives software updates, control signals about adjustments to its behaviour. The manufacturer knows where the car is, what the road conditions and temperature are and how the vehicle is performing at a particular speed.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.taylorwessing.com/download/article-whos-in-the-driving-seat.html">car’s insurer</a> may receive minute-by-minute information about the car’s state, location, speed and the condition of the road it’s on, and could vary the insurance accordingly. It could even give ten minutes’ warning of loss of cover and halt the car. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, government databases will also be likely to know where the car is, whether it is meant to be there and where it’s going. And even, using <a href="https://hashedin.com/4-ways-predictive-analytics-helping-connected-car-industry/">predictive analytics</a>, where it will go for its next journey. Smart motorways will manage flows of traffic, slowing down driverless cars as part of a stream of communication between the car and the road. In <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-are-forcing-cities-to-become-smart-94707">smart cities</a>, traffic lights will reroute cars into detours according to calculations and predictions about traffic jams, road works, or state requirements.</p>
<p>Markets in fast routes through cities and to central destinations may be created. Companies may pay for employees to use priority virtual routes. Travel logs may make it quite clear where you’ve gone and when. Reasons for your journey may be inferred predictably from the landscape, from destinations and from timing.</p>
<h2>End of autonomy</h2>
<p>For more than 130 years, cars have represented the ultimate in autonomy, individuality and democratic freedom. Our car trips are private and anonymous. We can go where we like and when we like. We don’t have to tell anybody. And we retain responsibility for whether we obey the law. Driverless cars will bring that to an end.</p>
<p>Now manufacturers, governments and city authorities will know where we’re going, what we’re doing and when. If anyone doesn’t like what we’re doing, they will be able to stop us, withdraw technical and accident cover, stop us using particular roads or streets, or just shut us down. It won’t be the car that’s autonomous but the authorities and systems that run and maintain that car, that draw and send information to and from the car.</p>
<p>Driverless cars will herald a new age of citizen control. In the rhetoric of making us safer and reducing risk, power will be taken away and delivered to central authorities – whether they are cities, governments or commissions. To render us safe, governments will leave us powerless.</p>
<p>Now the controllers can simply change our route for their own purposes, whether to prevent traffic jams or to clear a route for a dignitary. Now they can send us to particular shops, or directly to a police station. Now the controllers can manage populations of cars to meet the purposes of the council or government.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224178/original/file-20180621-137714-1rzonbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224178/original/file-20180621-137714-1rzonbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224178/original/file-20180621-137714-1rzonbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224178/original/file-20180621-137714-1rzonbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224178/original/file-20180621-137714-1rzonbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224178/original/file-20180621-137714-1rzonbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224178/original/file-20180621-137714-1rzonbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Someone’s always watching.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/security-control-room-two-officers-monitoring-771480574">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a democratic state, the growing flow of personalised information towards centralised authority will provides the basis for the regulation and enforcement. Its new managed citizens will be the target for <a href="https://theconversation.com/nudging-people-towards-changing-behaviour-what-works-and-why-not-27576">behavioural nudges</a> and advertising flowing into the driverless car. In the dictatorial state, the authorities can stop you going to a demonstration, or stop you going to church.</p>
<p>And such centrally managed systems, which will be essential for the safety of driverless cars, are not only open to the inevitable technology failures of complex systems, but also to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/aug/13/robot-connected-cars-hacking-risks-driverless-vehicles-ross-now">hacking</a> and attacks by other states and individuals. Why hack into one car, when you can hack into a whole city system and bring traffic to a halt, or crash 30,000 cars into each other?</p>
<p>In reflecting on the ethics of driverless cars we need to move beyond the constraints of trolleys and levers to a wider agenda that addresses the concepts of <a href="https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2874265">autonomy, community, transparency, identity, value and empathy</a>. Our ethical debate has to address the power shifts, the political responsibilities and the human rights that our vision of driverless cars may require to be sacrificed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98585/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil McBride does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Far from setting us free, autonomous vehicles are set to enable new forms of surveillance and oppression.Neil McBride, Reader in IT Management, De Montfort UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/949842018-05-01T20:15:54Z2018-05-01T20:15:54ZDon’t forget buses: six rules for improving city bus services<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215884/original/file-20180423-75093-1o7u3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smart bus use can transform public transport in cities, as EMBARQ is doing in Brazil.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/embarqbrasil/14325475028">EMBARQ Brasil/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Public transport that is <a href="http://www.ppt.asn.au/pubdocs/ip15-dodson-et-al-2011.pdf">safe, efficient and effective</a> is a core priority when it comes to city-building. While <a href="https://theconversation.com/getting-public-transport-right-means-less-emphasis-on-rail-45">trains get a lot of attention</a>, buses can also deliver successful public transport services – if we can overcome some common problems.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/which-transport-is-the-fairest-of-them-all-24806">Which transport is the fairest of them all?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Problems with bus services</h2>
<p>The main issues arise because buses share roads with cars. This tends to reduce the efficiency of bus travel, unless given a dedicated corridor like trains. Road congestion leads to frequent stopping, long journey times and delays in passenger pick-up and drop-off. Other issues include limited off-peak service, poor-quality shelters and unreliable timetables. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885915300500">None of these problems is insurmountable</a>. With some clever planning and targeted investment, buses can play a key role in public transport. Planners call this “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07293682.2010.526550">service-based network planning</a>”.</p>
<h2>Six principles for better service</h2>
<p>Here we offer six <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2014/05/5-crucial-principles-for-21st-century-transportation-systems/371782/">principles for making buses better</a>. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692308000306">Research shows</a> that to meet people’s everyday mobility needs, such as dropping children at school, doing shopping, running errands and so on, bus services must be flexible, convenient, safe, reliable, efficient and integrated.</p>
<p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Flexibility</strong> is a key requirement. People need to be able to use buses for multiple trips – in succession. Rigid timetables and set routes can make buses less appealing and less effective. </p>
<p>New developments such as “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-commuters-get-chance-to-trial-ondemand-buses-20170816-gxx4w5.html">on-demand</a>” services and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/heatherfarmbrough/2018/01/31/ugly-but-useful-stockholm-introduces-driverless-busses/#dd21ff160f44">driverless buses</a> offer the potential for better service delivery. For instance, Singapore intends that <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42090987">driverless buses will act as shuttles</a>, funnelling people from neighbourhoods to rapid transit services.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215842/original/file-20180423-75107-5xcr7v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A rapid transit bus station in Curitiba, Brazil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Linha_Verde_Curitiba_BRT_02_2013_Est_Marechal_Floriano_5978.JPG">Mariordo/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>2.</strong> <strong>Convenience</strong> is also vitally important. Having to wait a long time, especially if it’s in scorching sun, drenching rain, chilly wind or alone in the dark, deters people from using buses. </p>
<p>Services must enable easy access and use, and must be <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692311000202">priced fairly</a>. Shelters should be comfortable, attractive and visible (not just <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberrans-rail-against-encroachment-of-ads-with-billboard-ban-changes-20170707-gx6iad.html">glorified billboards</a>).</p>
<p>The use of <a href="https://www.wired.com/2011/04/how-smartphones-can-improve-public-transit/">smart phone apps</a> to request schedules, locate services, plan journeys, navigate the transport network – using real-time journey maps and multi-language platforms, for example – and pay for trips can improve convenience. When combined with <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2011/11/flexible-route-bus-work-better/523/">flexible pick-up and drop-off</a> locations (off-peak or at night), this can better integrate buses into our busy lives. </p>
<p><a href="https://eprints.qut.edu.au/65216/1/2013_liu_charles.pdf">Flexi-fares</a> (for demand management), “tap and go” payment systems, shopper or family passes, <a href="https://www.wired.com/2016/07/public-transit-riders-want-better-service-not-free-wifi/">free on-board wifi</a> and USB recharging ports can also improve convenience.</p>
<p><strong>3.</strong> <strong>Passenger safety</strong> is related to the above point. Buses should be accessible to a wide variety of people, such as vision-impaired and mobility-challenged, and everyone should feel safe. Safety can be improved in many ways. These include co-locating <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_and_ride">park-and-ride</a> facilities with neighbourhood shopping centres, schools, higher-density housing, recreation areas and other centres of activity, which maximises “passive surveillance”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215857/original/file-20180423-75114-1dmf44t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Purewell bus stop displays real-time information about services in Dorset, UK.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Purewell_Stony_Lane_bus_stop_Real_Time_information_display.JPG">Arriva436/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>4.</strong> <strong>Reliability</strong> is an important requirement for people to use buses. Transit systems must be designed so the buses run on time. And many bus rapid transit systems around the world deliver fast and reliable services.</p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bus_rapid_transit_systems">More than 40</a> cities now have rapid transit bus systems. These include Adelaide in Australia, Curitiba in Brazil, Seoul in Korea, Cape Town in South Africa, Ottawa in Canada, Los Angeles in USA, and <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2015-10-21/can-modern-megacity-bogot-get-without-subway">Bogota in Colombia</a>, which is among the largest by passenger volume. </p>
<p>Key here are measures such as dedicated bus lanes (e.g. the <a href="https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/busways.aspx">Brisbane Busway</a>), peak-hour clearways, city clipper services (e.g. crosstown with limited stops), <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187704281101024X">traffic signals</a> that give priority to buses, and flexi lanes for peak demand. These can be paired with “real-time service” displays indicating the next available bus, and even <a href="https://theconversation.com/london-congestion-charge-why-its-time-to-reconsider-one-of-the-citys-great-successes-92478">congestion charging</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/delay-in-changing-direction-on-how-we-tax-drivers-will-cost-us-all-87931">Delay in changing direction on how we tax drivers will cost us all</a>
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<p><strong>5.</strong> <strong>Efficiency</strong> is a key driver of public transport use and delivery. Many bus services are contracted (albeit with subsidies) so need to “pay their way”. Savings can be achieved by switching fuel (to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/15/uk-first-poo-bio-bus-bristol-regular-service">biofuel</a> or <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/20/europes-oil-capital-turns-to-clean-green-hydrogen-buses.html">hydrogen</a>, for example). Hybrid and <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/06/not-just-shenzhen-jaw-dropping-china-electric-bus-roundup/">electric bus</a> fleets use less or no fuel.</p>
<p>Using all doors for boarding can reduce trip times, as can new <a href="https://www.wired.com/2013/04/rethinking-subway-seating/">seating configurations</a>. Flexible payment options, using systems such as “tap and go”, can eliminate “fare fumbling”. </p>
<p>A simple measure to handle variable demand is versatile vehicle fleets. Examples such as Hong Kong’s <a href="http://www.bbc.com/autos/story/20160713-the-scary-fast-buses-of-hong-kong">light buses</a> and the Swiss town of St Gallen’s high-capacity, bi-articulated trolleybus vehicles show this improved efficiency.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215869/original/file-20180423-75123-12z0gmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jumbo double-articulated trolley buses operate in St Gallen, Switzerland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/70981241@N00/6813792712">Kecko/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>6.</strong> <strong>Network integration</strong> is crucial if buses are to work. This means passengers should be able to transfer easily between walking, cycling, private vehicles, car sharing (e.g. Uber), ferries, trains and other buses. </p>
<p>Fare systems should be designed for easy transfer. Transfers should be free or low-cost within set time periods. </p>
<p>And bus transit should be better integrated into cities. Initiatives such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-30-minute-city-how-do-we-put-the-political-rhetoric-into-practice-56136">transit-oriented development</a> combine transport with housing, recreation, education, commercial activities and other land uses.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-30-minute-city-how-do-we-put-the-political-rhetoric-into-practice-56136">'The 30-minute city': how do we put the political rhetoric into practice?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The future of bus transit</h2>
<p>Of course, not all these solutions will work for every city. Smaller and midsize cities are arguably better positioned to take advantage of bus transit, though it works in larger metro areas too. For example, <a href="https://unfccc.int/climate-action/momentum-for-change/lighthouse-activities/guangzhou-bus-rapid-transit-system-china">Guangzhou in China has bus rapid transit</a>.</p>
<p>Not many cities can afford to implement these solutions all at once. While some commentators have suggested <a href="https://theconversation.com/buses-could-be-history-sooner-than-you-think-heres-why-90126">buses could soon be history</a>, cities like Brisbane, Australia, are experimenting with <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/traffic-transport/public-transport/brisbane-metro">hybrid bus transit systems</a>. The vehicles and stations have the look and feel of light rail, but retain the flexibility of buses. </p>
<p>With careful planning and phased implementation, bus transit can help make cities healthier, more efficient and more sustainable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94984/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Byrne receives funding from the Australian Research Council for research on (i) climate change and social innovation and (ii) green space and health. He is a member of the Planning Institute Australia, Institute of Australian Geographers and Association of American Geographers. Jason donates to environmental groups (e.g. Australian Conservation Foundation) and has presented at the Green Institute conference. He provides research consultancy services to local government (e.g. City of Gold Coast).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Pharo is a member of Tasmania's Road Safety Advisory Council and has consulted for the Department of State Growth on pedestrian safety and amenity. She was a public relations advisor for Bicycle Network between 2011 and 2016 and is a current member of the Hobart Bike Advisory Committee. Emma is a member of the Planning Institute of Australia and sits on the policy sub-committee in Tasmania.
</span></em></p>Trains and trams get most attention, but ‘tweaking’ bus transit can transform cities. Buses can be more cost-effective and deliver better service, especially for small to mid-sized cities.Jason Byrne, Professor of Human Geography and Planning, University of TasmaniaEmma Pharo, Senior Lecturer, Geography and Environmental Studies, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/923302018-04-18T14:29:08Z2018-04-18T14:29:08ZYour next pilot could be drone software<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212503/original/file-20180328-109193-p11abt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5604%2C3733&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Would you be – or feel – safer if one of these people were a robot?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/flight-deck-modern-aircraft-pilots-work-389795107">Skycolors/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Would you get on a plane that didn’t have a human pilot in the cockpit? <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/07/air-passengers-pilotless-planes-fares-ubs/">Half of air travelers</a> surveyed in 2017 said they would not, even if the ticket was cheaper. Modern pilots do such a good job that almost any air accident is big news, such as the <a href="https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/04/how-a-cracked-fan-blade-probably-ended-a-decade-of-no-us-air-travel-fatalities/">Southwest engine disintegration</a> on April 17.</p>
<p>But stories of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1990/08/21/us/northwest-pilots-are-found-guilty-of-drunken-flying.html">pilot drunkenness</a>, <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/united-pilot-kicked-flight-rant-divorce-politics-article-1.2970358">rants</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dr-gridlock/wp/2017/04/29/delta-says-pilot-who-struck-a-passenger-was-trying-to-break-up-a-fight/">fights</a> and <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/northwest-airlines-pilots-miss-airport-150-miles/story?id=8892976">distraction</a>, however rare, are reminders that pilots are only human. Not every plane can be flown by a disaster-averting pilot, like Southwest <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-veteran-fighter-pilot-tammy-jo-shults-saved-crippled-southwest-flight-1380">Capt. Tammie Jo Shults</a> or <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/28678669/ns/us_news-life/t/ny-jet-crash-called-miracle-hudson/">Capt. Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger</a>. But software could change that, equipping every plane with an extremely experienced guidance system that is always learning more.</p>
<p>In fact, on many flights, autopilot systems already control the plane for <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/26/autopilot-what-the-system-can-and-cant-do.html">basically all of the flight</a>. And software handles <a href="http://aviationweek.com/business-aviation/going-blind-zerozero-landings">the most harrowing landings</a> – when there is no visibility and the pilot can’t see anything to even know where he or she is. But human pilots are still on hand as backups.</p>
<p>A new generation of software pilots, developed for self-flying vehicles, or drones, will soon have logged more flying hours than all humans have – ever. By combining their enormous amounts of flight data and experience, drone-control software applications are poised to quickly become the world’s most experienced pilots.</p>
<h2>Drones that fly themselves</h2>
<p>Drones come in many forms, from <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/best-toy-drones/">tiny quad-rotor copter toys</a> to <a href="http://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104470/mq-9-reaper/">missile-firing winged planes</a>, or even <a href="http://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104516/rq-4-global-hawk/">7-ton aircraft</a> that can stay aloft for 34 hours at a stretch. </p>
<p>When drones were <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/brief-history-drones/">first introduced</a>, they were <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2018/03/predator-started-drone-revolution-and-made-military-innovation-cool/">flown remotely</a> by human operators. However, this merely substitutes a pilot on the ground for one aloft. And it <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2018/03/predator-started-drone-revolution-and-made-military-innovation-cool/">requires significant communications bandwidth</a> between the drone and control center, to carry real-time video from the drone and to transmit the operator’s commands. </p>
<p>Many newer drones no longer need pilots; some drones for <a href="https://www.dronezon.com/drone-reviews/drone-gps-autopilot-at-very-affordable-prices/">hobbyists and photographers</a> can now <a href="https://www.dronezon.com/drone-reviews/drone-gps-autopilot-at-very-affordable-prices/">fly themselves</a> along <a href="https://www.dronezon.com/drone-reviews/drone-gps-autopilot-at-very-affordable-prices/">human-defined routes</a>, leaving the human free to sightsee – or control the camera to get the best view.</p>
<p><a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/drones/this-autonomous-quadrotor-swarm-doesnt-need-gps">University researchers</a>, <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-infrastructure/our-insights/commercial-drones-are-here-the-future-of-unmanned-aerial-systems">businesses</a> and <a href="https://www.nato.int/docu/review/2017/Also-in-2017/autonomous-military-drones-no-longer-science-fiction/EN/index.htm">military agencies</a> are now testing larger and more capable drones that will operate autonomously. <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a24675/pentagon-autonomous-swarming-drones/">Swarms of drones</a> can fly without needing tens or hundreds of humans to control them. And they can perform <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-autonomous-drones-set-to-revolutionize-military-technology/">coordinated maneuvers</a> that human controllers could never handle.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/waeXQwnkYAc?wmode=transparent&start=121" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Could humans control these 1,218 drones all together?</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whether flying in swarms or alone, the software that controls these drones is rapidly gaining flight experience. </p>
<h2>Importance of pilot experience</h2>
<p>Experience is the main qualification for pilots. Even a person who wants to fly a small plane for personal and noncommercial use needs <a href="https://www.firstflight.com/private-pilot-requirements/">40 hours</a> of flying instruction before getting a private pilot’s license. Commercial airline pilots must have <a href="https://www.flyingmag.com/training/getting-your-atp-certificate">at least 1,000 hours</a> before even serving as a co-pilot. </p>
<p>On-the-ground training and in-flight experience prepare pilots for unusual and emergency scenarios, ideally to help save lives in situations like the “<a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/28678669/ns/us_news-life/t/ny-jet-crash-called-miracle-hudson/">Miracle on the Hudson</a>.” But many pilots are less experienced than “Sully” Sullenberger, who saved his planeload of people with quick and creative thinking. With software, though, every plane can have on board a pilot with as much experience – if not more. A popular software pilot system, in use in many aircraft at once, could gain more flight time each day than a single human might <a href="https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=1e483077c0bff7e356d8aece28712f40&node=14:3.0.1.1.7.17.3.2&rgn=div8">accumulate in a year</a>. </p>
<p>As someone who studies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2013.12.004">technology policy</a> as well as the use of artificial intelligence for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/AERO.2016.7500814">drones</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/SYSOSE.2017.7994957">cars</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0952813X.2015.1020569">robots</a> and other uses, I don’t lightly suggest handing over the controls for those additional tasks. But giving software pilots more control would maximize computers’ advantages over humans in training, testing and reliability.</p>
<h2>Training and testing software pilots</h2>
<p>Unlike people, computers will follow sets of instructions in software the same way every time. That lets developers create instructions, test reactions and refine aircraft responses. Testing could make it far less likely, for example, that a computer would <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2012/04/17/travel/canada-disoriented-pilot/index.html">mistake the planet Venus for an oncoming jet</a> and throw the plane into a steep dive to avoid it. </p>
<p>The most significant advantage is scale: Rather than teaching thousands of individual pilots new skills, updating thousands of aircraft would require only downloading updated software.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212492/original/file-20180328-109169-eq9rxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212492/original/file-20180328-109169-eq9rxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212492/original/file-20180328-109169-eq9rxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212492/original/file-20180328-109169-eq9rxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212492/original/file-20180328-109169-eq9rxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212492/original/file-20180328-109169-eq9rxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212492/original/file-20180328-109169-eq9rxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212492/original/file-20180328-109169-eq9rxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">US Airways Flight 1549 passengers evacuate in the water after an emergency landing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Miracle-on-the-Hudson-Bird-Strikes/876999a8e670497ca7299e9d137c9109/1/0">AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These systems would also need to be thoroughly tested – in both real-life situations and in <a href="http://mdpi.com/2073-431X/2/2/67">simulations</a> – to handle a wide range of aviation situations and to <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-you-be-hacked-by-the-world-around-you-83195">withstand cyberattacks</a>. But once they’re working well, software pilots are not susceptible to distraction, disorientation, fatigue or other human impairments that can create problems or cause errors even in common situations.</p>
<h2>Rapid response and adaptation</h2>
<p>Already, aircraft regulators are concerned that human pilots are <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/a18951/department-of-transportation-report-pilots-are-forgetting-how-to-fly-manually/">forgetting how to fly</a> on their own and may have trouble taking over from an autopilot in an emergency.</p>
<p>In the “<a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/28678669/ns/us_news-life/t/ny-jet-crash-called-miracle-hudson/">Miracle on the Hudson</a>” event, for example, a key factor in what happened was <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ntsb-sully-could-have-made-it-back-to-laguardia/">how long it took for the human pilots to figure out what had happened</a> – that the plane had flown through a flock of birds, which had damaged both engines – and how to respond. Rather than the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/sully/miracle-on-the-hudson-how-it-happened/">approximately one minute</a> it took the humans, a computer could have assessed the situation in seconds, potentially saving enough time that the plane could have landed on a runway instead of a river.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212493/original/file-20180328-109190-1vmv8y0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212493/original/file-20180328-109190-1vmv8y0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212493/original/file-20180328-109190-1vmv8y0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212493/original/file-20180328-109190-1vmv8y0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212493/original/file-20180328-109190-1vmv8y0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212493/original/file-20180328-109190-1vmv8y0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212493/original/file-20180328-109190-1vmv8y0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212493/original/file-20180328-109190-1vmv8y0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">At the NTSB hearing, investigators learned how the decision time made it impossible for Flight 1549 to return to the airport, forcing the water landing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Plane-Splashdown-Hearing/263dbf7af6f24c98bd3b973dd59e68da/1/0">AP Photo/Charles Dharapak</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Aircraft damage can pose another particularly difficult challenge for human pilots: It can change what effects the controls have on its flight. In cases where damage <a href="http://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-and-regional/und-plane-crashed-after-hitting-goose/article_07e9494c-3719-5cd6-84ac-84a72d575a2e.html">renders a plane uncontrollable</a>, the result is often tragedy. A sufficiently advanced automated system could make minute changes to the aircraft’s steering and use its sensors to quickly evaluate the effects of those movements – essentially learning how to fly all over again with a damaged plane.</p>
<h2>Boosting public confidence</h2>
<p>The biggest barrier to fully automated flight is psychological, not technical. Many people may not want to trust their lives to computer systems. But they might come around when reassured that the software pilot has tens, hundreds or thousands more hours of flight experience than any human pilot.</p>
<p>Other autonomous technologies, too, are progressing despite public concerns. Regulators and lawmakers are <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/autonomous-vehicles-self-driving-vehicles-enacted-legislation.aspx">allowing self-driving cars on the roads</a> in many states. But more than half of Americans <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-get-the-most-out-of-self-driving-cars-tap-the-brakes-on-their-rollout-88444">don’t want to ride in one</a>, largely because they <a href="http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/americans-attitudes-toward-driverless-vehicles/">don’t trust the technology</a>. And only <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/07/technology/business/pilotless-planes-passengers/index.html">17 percent of travelers</a> around the world are willing to board a plane without a pilot. However, as more people experience self-driving cars on the road and have <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air/b?ie=UTF8&node=8037720011">drones deliver them packages</a>, it is likely that software pilots will gain in acceptance.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/pi_2017-10-04_automation_3-05/"><img width="420" height="671" src="http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2017/10/03102012/PI_2017.10.04_Automation_3-05.png" class="attachment-large size-large" alt="Slight majority of Americans would not want to ride in a driverless vehicle if given the chance; safety concerns, lack of trust lead their list of concerns"></a></p>
<p>The airline industry will certainly be pushing people to trust the new systems: Automating pilots could <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/07/technology/business/pilotless-planes-passengers/index.html">save tens of billions of dollars</a> a year. And the current <a href="http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/4422547-us-pilot-shortage-reaching-crisis-fargo-travelers-it-means-fewer-flights-destinations">pilot shortage</a> means software pilots may be the key to having any airline service to smaller destinations. </p>
<p>Both <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/05/news/companies/boeing-acquires-aurora-autonomous-797-air-taxi/index.html">Boeing</a> and <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/airbus-pilotless-planes-self-flying-aircraft-passenger-flights-cto-paul-eremenko-a8068956.html">Airbus</a> have made significant investments in automated flight technology, which would remove or reduce the need for human pilots. Boeing has actually bought a drone manufacturer and is <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/05/news/companies/boeing-acquires-aurora-autonomous-797-air-taxi/index.html">looking to add software pilot capabilities</a> to the next generation of its passenger aircraft. (Other tests have tried to <a href="https://phys.org/news/2016-10-cockpit-robot.html">retrofit existing aircraft</a> with robotic pilots.)</p>
<p>One way to help regular passengers become comfortable with software pilots – while also helping to both train and test the systems – could be to introduce them as co-pilots working alongside human pilots. Planes would be operated by software from gate to gate, with the pilots instructed to touch the controls only if the system fails. Eventually pilots could be removed from the aircraft altogether, just like they eventually were from the <a href="https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/wnj75z/why-dont-we-have-driverless-trains-yet">driverless trains</a> that we routinely ride in airports around the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92330/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeremy Straub is the associate director of the NDSU Institute for Cyber Security Education and Research. He has received funding related to AI and robotics from the North Dakota State University, the NDSU Foundation and Alumni Association, the U.S. National Science Foundation, the University of North Dakota and Sigma Xi. He is the lead inventor on a patent-pending technology for autonomous control of robots, UAVs and spacecraft. The views presented are his own and do not necessarily represent the views of NDSU or funding agencies.</span></em></p>Airplanes could be safer with technology at the helm. A key sticking point is human opinion.Jeremy Straub, Assistant Professor of Computer Science, North Dakota State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/919492018-02-22T13:00:09Z2018-02-22T13:00:09ZSilicon Valley is winning the race to build the first driverless cars<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207500/original/file-20180222-152348-n7t8rw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Waymo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Henry Ford didn’t invent the motor car. The late 1800s saw a flurry of innovation by hundreds of companies battling to deliver on the promise of fast, efficient and reasonably-priced mechanical transportation. Ford later came to dominate the industry thanks to the development of the moving assembly line.</p>
<p>Today the sector is poised for another breakthrough with the advent of cars that drive themselves. But unlike the original wave of automobile innovation, the race for supremacy in autonomous vehicles is concentrated among a few corporate giants. So who is set to dominate this time? </p>
<p><a href="https://indd.adobe.com/view/a0bd4358-a51c-4a90-b300-e727272a6bba">I’ve analysed</a> six companies we think are leading the race to build the first truly driverless car. Three of these – General Motors, Ford and Volkswagen – come from the existing car industry and need to integrate self-driving technology into their existing fleet of mass-produced vehicles. The other three – Tesla, Uber and Waymo (owned by the same company as Google) – are newcomers from the digital technology world of Silicon Valley and have to build a mass manufacturing capability.</p>
<p>While it’s impossible to know all the developments at any given time, we have tracked investments, strategic partnerships and official press releases to learn more about what’s happening behind the scenes. The car industry typically rates self-driving technology <a href="https://autoalliance.org/connected-cars/automated-driving-systems/levels-of-automation/">on a scale</a> from Level 0 (no automation) to Level 5 (full automation). We’ve assessed where each company is now and estimated how far they are from reaching the top level. Here’s how we think each player is performing.</p>
<h1>Volkswagen</h1>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207502/original/file-20180222-152375-15m1e12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207502/original/file-20180222-152375-15m1e12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207502/original/file-20180222-152375-15m1e12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207502/original/file-20180222-152375-15m1e12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207502/original/file-20180222-152375-15m1e12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207502/original/file-20180222-152375-15m1e12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207502/original/file-20180222-152375-15m1e12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Audi A8 traffic jam pilot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Audi</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Volkswagen <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b09e7396-21c5-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d">has invested</a> in taxi-hailing app Gett and partnered with chip-maker Nvidia to develop an artificial intelligence co-pilot for its cars. In 2018, the VW Group is set to release <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2017/09/10/tthe-level-3-audi-a8-will-almost-be-the-most-important-car-in-the-world/">the Audi A8</a>, the first production vehicle that reaches Level 3 on the scale, “conditional driving automation”. This means the car’s computer will handle all driving functions but a human has to be ready to take over if necessary.</p>
<h2>Ford</h2>
<p>Ford already sells cars with a Level 2 autopilot, “partial driving automation”. This means one or more aspects of driving are controlled by a computer based on information about the environment, for example combined cruise control and lane centring. Alongside <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2016/08/16/ford-and-baidu-lead-new-150-million-investment-in-lidar-maker-velodyne/#2203481b1de7">other investments</a>, the company has put US$1 billion into Argo AI, an artificial intelligence company for self-driving vehicles. Following a trial to <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/ford-self-driving-pizza-delivery-dominos/">test pizza delivery</a> using autonomous vehicles, Ford is now testing Level 4 cars on <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2017/08/29/dominos-takes-high-tech-pizza-delivery-to-level-4-with-ford/">public roads</a>. These feature “high automation”, where the car can drive entirely on its own but not in certain conditions such as when the road surface is poor or the weather is bad.</p>
<h2>General Motors</h2>
<p>GM also sells vehicles with Level 2 automation but, after buying Silicon Valley startup Cruise Automation in 2016, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/gm-cruise-fully-autonomous-electric-car-no-steering-wheel-2018-1">now plans</a> to launch the first mass production-ready Level 5 autonomy vehicle that drives completely on its own by 2019. The Cruise AV will have no steering wheel or pedals to allow a human to take over and be part of a large fleet of <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cc88fc96-d620-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9">driverless taxis</a> the company plans to operate in big cities. But crucially the company hasn’t yet <a href="https://www.recode.net/2018/1/12/16880570/general-motors-self-driving-cars-cruise-steering-wheel-nhtsa-fmvss">secured permission</a> to test the car on public roads.</p>
<h2>Waymo (Google)</h2>
<figure> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/sdc-prod/v1/press/waymo_first_ride.gif"><figcaption>Level 5 testing.</figcaption></figure>
<p>Founded as a special project in 2009, Waymo separated from Google (though they’re both owned by the same parent firm, Alphabet) in 2016. Though it has never made, sold or operated a car on a commercial basis, Waymo has created test vehicles that have clocked more than <a href="https://waymo.com/ontheroad/">4m miles</a> without human drivers as of November 2017. Waymo tested its Level 5 car, “Firefly”, between 2015 and 2017 but then decided to focus on hardware that could be installed in other manufacturers’ vehicles, starting with the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/waymo-orders-thousands-of-pacifica-minivans-in-push-to-open-ride-hailing-service.html">Chrysler Pacifica</a>. </p>
<h2>Uber</h2>
<p>The taxi-hailing app maker Uber has been testing autonomous cars on the streets of Pittsburgh <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/uber-self-driving-car-testing-in-pittsburgh-2016-2?r=US&IR=T">since 2016</a>, always with an employee behind the wheel ready to take over in case of a malfunction. After buying the self-driving truck company Otto in 2016 for a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-tech-volvo-otto-idUSKCN10T1TR">reported US$680m</a>, Uber is now expanding its AI capabilities and plans to test NVDIA’s latest chips in Otto’s vehicles. It has also partnered with Volvo to create a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/36f071b0-cd64-11e7-b781-794ce08b24dc">self-driving fleet</a> of cars, and with Toyota to co-create a <a href="https://www.recode.net/2018/1/8/16864916/uber-partnership-toyota-ces-volvo-daimler">ride-sharing autonomous vehicle</a>.</p>
<h2>Tesla</h2>
<p>The first major car manufacturer to come from Silicon Valley, Tesla was also the first to introduce Level 2 autopilot <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34535604">back in 2015</a>. The following year, it announced that all new Teslas would have the hardware for <a href="https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware">full autonomy</a>, meaning once the software is finished it can be deployed on existing cars with an instant upgrade. Some experts have challenged this approach, arguing that the company has merely added surround cameras to its production cars that aren’t as capable as the <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/24/16504038/tesla-autopilot-self-driving-update-elon-musk">laser-based sensing systems</a> that most other carmakers are using.</p>
<p>But the company has collected data from hundreds of thousands of cars, driving millions of miles across all terrains. So we shouldn’t dismiss the firm’s founder, Elon Musk, when he claims a Level 4 Tesla will drive from <a href="https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autonomous-coast-to-coast-self-driving-trip/">LA to New York</a> without any human interference within the first half of 2018.</p>
<h2>Winners</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206746/original/file-20180216-131000-1tlem5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206746/original/file-20180216-131000-1tlem5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206746/original/file-20180216-131000-1tlem5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206746/original/file-20180216-131000-1tlem5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206746/original/file-20180216-131000-1tlem5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206746/original/file-20180216-131000-1tlem5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206746/original/file-20180216-131000-1tlem5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206746/original/file-20180216-131000-1tlem5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Who’s leading the race?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://indd.adobe.com/view/a0bd4358-a51c-4a90-b300-e727272a6bba">IMD</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the moment, the disruptors like Tesla, Waymo and Uber seem to have the upper hand. While the traditional automakers are focusing on bringing Level 3 and 4 partial automation to market, the new companies are leapfrogging them by moving more directly towards Level 5 full automation. Waymo may have the least experience of dealing with consumers in this sector but it has already clocked up a huge amount of time testing some of the most advanced technology on public roads.</p>
<p>The incumbent carmakers are also focused on the difficult process of integrating new technology and business models into their existing manufacturing operations by buying up small companies. The challengers, on the other hand, are easily partnering with other big players including manufacturers to get the scale and expertise they need more quickly. </p>
<p>Tesla is building its own manufacturing capability but also collecting vast amounts of critical data that will enable it to more easily upgrade its cars when ready for full automation. In particular, Waymo’s experience, technology capability and ability to secure solid partnerships puts it at the head of the pack.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91949/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Wade does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Uber, Tesla and Waymo (Google) are leapfrogging traditional car makers like Ford, VW and General Motors when it comes to self-driving cars.Michael Wade, Professor of Innovation and Strategy, Cisco Chair in Digital Business Transformation, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/909202018-02-15T17:56:56Z2018-02-15T17:56:56ZUtopia or nightmare? The answer lies in how we embrace self-driving, electric and shared vehicles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205240/original/file-20180207-74482-ixvtf9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Four major disruptions of urban transport are set to transform city life, but exactly how remains uncertain. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/action-asphalt-automobile-automotive-593172/">Taras Makarenko/Pexels</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Emerging transport disruptions could lead to a series of nightmare scenarios and poorer transport systems unless we have sensible and informed public policy to avoid this. Of course, some foresee a utopian scene: self-driving electric vehicles zipping around our cities serving all our transport needs without road accidents or exhaust fumes. But the shift to this transport utopia might not be as straightforward as some think.</p>
<p>In a newly published <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07293682.2018.1424002">paper</a>, we explore some potential problems linked to vehicle electrification, autonomous vehicles, the sharing economy and the increasing density of cities. We examined what could happen if these four trends are not all properly managed together. </p>
<p>Much has been written about the potential benefits of these disruptions:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>electric vehicles</strong> powered by renewable energy could cut costs and fossil fuel emissions, and eliminate the significant impacts of pollution on public health and the environment</p></li>
<li><p><strong>shared vehicles</strong> could reduce transport costs and traffic</p></li>
<li><p><strong>autonomous vehicles</strong> could eliminate traffic accidents, reduce congestion and increase mobility for everyone</p></li>
<li><p><strong>increasing urban density</strong> could bring <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1576593">significant economic benefits</a> through growth and <a href="http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7977.pdf">efficiency gains</a> when people and businesses are closer together.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>However, the interplay between these trends could also result in nightmare scenarios. We developed a Future Mobility Disruption Framework to investigate what could happen if even one of these trends is not actively managed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204545/original/file-20180202-162063-2feaqu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204545/original/file-20180202-162063-2feaqu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204545/original/file-20180202-162063-2feaqu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204545/original/file-20180202-162063-2feaqu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204545/original/file-20180202-162063-2feaqu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204545/original/file-20180202-162063-2feaqu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=690&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204545/original/file-20180202-162063-2feaqu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=690&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204545/original/file-20180202-162063-2feaqu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=690&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The interactions of transport disruptions need to be anticipated and managed together.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07293682.2018.1424002?journalCode=rapl20">Kane & Whitehead 2018, Australian Planner</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Four nightmare scenarios</h2>
<p>Our research identified four potential nightmare scenarios.</p>
<p><strong>Nightmare 1: vehicle electrification + autonomous vehicles + increasing urban density</strong></p>
<p>If policy fails to support and manage a shift away from private vehicle ownership towards car-sharing, several negative impacts are likely. In this scenario, electric cars will be cheaper to run and still privately owned. This could encourage more people to drive and create more traffic. </p>
<p>The convenience of self-driving cars with low operating costs might also encourage a shift away from traditional public transport and could even cause its collapse.</p>
<p><strong>Nightmare 2: autonomous vehicles + increasing urban density + shift towards sharing economy</strong></p>
<p>If people shift from private car ownership towards shared, autonomous vehicles, significant transport cost savings could be possible. By replacing public transport systems, shared vehicle services could arguably provide cheap transport for all. </p>
<p>While these benefits are obvious, without vehicle electrification, the use of fossil fuels would significantly increase emissions. Though a reduction in emissions is plausible with a shift away from private vehicle ownership, the low cost and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/02/25/us/ap-us-ride-hailing-congestion.html">convenience of shared vehicles could lead to higher demand and more trips</a>, thus increasing emissions. This pollution would increase rates of premature deaths and diseases in our cities, and worsen the impacts of climate change.</p>
<p><strong>Nightmare 3: increasing urban density + shift towards sharing economy + vehicle electrification</strong></p>
<p>We would again see a shift away from private vehicle ownership towards shared, electric vehicles. This would reduce transport and pollution-related health costs However, in this scenario, the vehicles would not be autonomous.</p>
<p>The shared vehicle fleet would require human drivers. This would result in higher costs, less efficiency and more accidents. Ultimately, this would be a barrier to the long-term sustainability and widespread use of shared vehicles. </p>
<p><strong>Nightmare 4: shift towards sharing economy + vehicle electrification + autonomous vehicles</strong></p>
<p>So what would happen in the face of three of the transport disruptions occurring without increasing urban density? Electric and autonomous vehicles would significantly reduce transport costs. Combined with the availability of shared services, this would lead to a substantial shift away from private vehicle ownership towards shared, electric, autonomous vehicles (SEAVs). </p>
<p>These vehicles would be efficient, safe and convenient, with minimal environmental impacts. At first this would seem like the ideal scenario to aim for. However, it ignores the potential impacts on urban form and density.</p>
<p>Without policies supporting urban density and public transport, a shift towards SEAVs would probably encourage sprawling, car-dominated cities as people would have fewer reasons to live close to work. SEAVs would be cheap and convenient. They could pick people up from their front door and drop them directly at their destination. People would likely not be as concerned with road congestion as they could carry out other activities during the trip – even working during the drive. </p>
<p>If people feel less restricted in where they choose to live, they might opt for larger houses and lots, further away from cities. This would not only place additional demands on infrastructure but also have a significant impact on the natural environments surrounding our cities.</p>
<p>This form of lower-density living would discourage active transport options, like walking and cycling, which would have negative <a href="https://www.heartfoundation.org.au/images/uploads/publications/Increasing-density-in-Australia-Evidence-Review-2012-trevor.pdf">health impacts</a>. Urban sprawl could also have negative economic impacts as people and businesses spread out and lose the <a href="http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7977.pdf">benefits of being close together</a>.</p>
<h2>Managing disruptions as a whole</h2>
<p>Each of these four trends could independently yield many benefits. However, examination of these nightmare scenarios reveals that, without holistic planning and policy support for all four disruptions, negative unintended consequences are likely. Planners and policymakers must consider how these disruptions will interact. </p>
<p>As detailed in our <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07293682.2018.1424002">paper</a>, a range of possible policy interventions is available for managing the risks associated with these trends. These include reform of road taxation, supportive regulation and integrated planning. </p>
<p>Only a holistic approach to managing these disruptions will enable us to arrive at a future transport utopia.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can read more about these transport disruptions in a forthcoming book, <a href="https://islandpress.org/book/three-revolutions">Three Revolutions</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90920/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jake Whitehead is a Research Fellow at The University of Queensland and is the Director of Transmobility Consulting and DriveElectric.com.au.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Michael Kane is a Research Associate at Curtin University Sustainability Program and is the Director Innovation and Economic Strategies at Economic Development Queensland, a business unit of the Department of State Development, Infrastructure, Manufacturing and Planning in the Queensland.</span></em></p>Self-driving, shared, electric vehicles and increasing urban density represent four disruptions that will transform city life. But a transport utopia isn’t a guaranteed outcome of their interactions.Jake Whitehead, Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandMichael Kane, Director, Innovation and Economic Strategies, Economic Development Queensland; Research Associate, Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/899722018-02-06T19:14:38Z2018-02-06T19:14:38ZDriverless cars could create new jobs in a welcome boost to Australia’s motor industry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204392/original/file-20180201-123826-16p167n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia could benefit from driverless car development and technology.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/chombosan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The race to market for widespread driverless cars may be on, but that doesn’t mean we’re anywhere near a deployable reality. Much of the initial hype has settled down, and the claims made by manufacturers and startups with regards to timelines <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/toyota-gill-pratt-on-the-reality-of-full-autonomy">have moderated</a>.</p>
<p>As the key stakeholders - the automotive industry, government and the public - consider the impacts of a possible driverless car future, their implications in the Australian landscape are starting to become clearer.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GCFMHOkglHI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Given the recent decline in Australia’s car manufacturing industry there is also some hope driverless cars could see the creation of new skilled jobs in Australia.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-just-imagine-how-we-could-use-them-72085">Driverless cars, just imagine how we could use them</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>I spoke with Dr Brett Dale, chief executive officer at the <a href="https://www.mtaq.com.au/MTAQ/About">Motor Trades Association of Queensland</a>, and asked how he thinks the Australian public and motoring industry’s expectations of autonomous vehicles have evolved over the past five years. </p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Brett</strong>: The automotive industry, beyond offshore manufacturers, is only now coming to realise the emergence of the technology is imminent. The realisation is in its infancy for industry, and the evolution of the technology is appearing more of a revolution to some. </p>
<p>What we know is that new technology is a must for consumers; our motorists wait for no one. Industry must rapidly prepare for changing business models that will be more suitable to the changing needs of motorists.</p>
<p>Many speculate that consumers will <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/12/16883510/self-driving-car-poll-congress-bill-safety">lack faith in the technology</a> which will inevitably reduce demand. </p>
<p>But the optimist believes otherwise and expects that, like all new tech in vehicles, the demand will be significant and the challenge will, in fact <a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-2017-uks-driverless-cars-stuck-on-testing-roundabout-87805">lay with the regulators</a> to ensure that they do not act as barriers to new markets. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A second chance for Australian car industry?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204524/original/file-20180202-162087-5y3gc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204524/original/file-20180202-162087-5y3gc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204524/original/file-20180202-162087-5y3gc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204524/original/file-20180202-162087-5y3gc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204524/original/file-20180202-162087-5y3gc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204524/original/file-20180202-162087-5y3gc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204524/original/file-20180202-162087-5y3gc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204524/original/file-20180202-162087-5y3gc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dr Brett Dale.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Motor Trades Association Queensland</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A century of car manufacturing - a highly politicised topic of late - is <a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/motoring/why-australian-car-manufacturing-died-and-what-it-means-for-our-motoring-future/news-story/0428dc235d1b44639459959f5a3bbf9b">disappearing from Australian shores</a> at the dawn of autonomous cars. </p>
<p>While it’s possible autonomous cars will be entirely imported from overseas, some see autonomous vehicles as providing a potential <a href="https://www.itnews.com.au/news/south-australia-sinks-10-million-into-driverless-cars-439125">resurgence in car-based industry in Australia</a>.</p>
<p>The question of maintaining and servicing autonomous vehicles is also unresolved. So what impacts does Brett see autonomous cars having on the Australian motor trades-related industry?</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Brett</strong>: We are on the edge of one of the fastest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. There are predictions that by 2030, “<a href="https://www.rethinkx.com/press-release/2017/5/3/new-report-due-to-major-transportation-disruption-95-of-us-car-miles-will-be-traveled-in-self-driving-electric-shared-vehicles-by-2030">95% of US car miles</a>” travelled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, and this alone will determine the need for a reinvention of industry. </p>
<p>We anticipate many sectors of our industry will change significantly. The areas that are most likely to be affected will be the retail service and repair sectors. </p>
<p>Sale models will change and consumers are <a href="http://www.iflscience.com/technology/driverless-cars-will-change-way-we-think-car-ownership/">less likely to be the owners of vehicles</a> if supporting technology affords the convenience of on-demand transportation.</p>
<p>Collision avoidance technology is already reducing demand for vehicle body repair, as is the transition of combustion engines to electric vehicles impacting mechanical repair businesses.</p>
<p>We see the application of autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) requiring extensive skill acquisition by existing technicians for the maintenance and repair requirements of the electric engines. </p>
<p>The AI components may even require a new workforce that is <a href="https://qz.com/778380/the-future-is-software-engineers-who-cant-code/">closely aligned to software engineering</a> rather than mechanical engineering. Industry is currently working with government in an attempt to preempt these requirements. </p>
<p>AEVs will provide opportunity for the Australian automotive industry, but the challenge lays with shifting the mindset of business. We need to contemplate how existing businesses may be impacted and develop the skills to ensure that they can seize new opportunities. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The first adopters</h2>
<p>Who will be the first adopters of autonomous vehicles? Some of that depends on what scenarios unfold. In one, companies <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/24/16533534/delphi-nutonomy-acquisition-450-million-self-driving">cherry pick the most lucrative, easiest to solve markets first</a> - the centres of metropolitan cities. Here cars will be in demand 24 hours a day and speeds (and consequently danger) are reduced. </p>
<p>City centres also offer a high enough revenue base that companies can install additional infrastructure including cameras and sensors, as well as centralised computing resources to supplement what is already on the cars. The cars themselves may benefit from more expensive sensing and computers enhancing their capability. </p>
<p>If a ride sharing model in the centres of cities comes first, it’s likely it will be used by the business people who already make a habit of using human driven Ubers on a regular basis. If people own driverless cars, cost considerations will suggest that executives will be the first to own them.</p>
<p>So how does Brett see consumer uptake of self-driving cars?</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Brett</strong>: What we know is that the majority of new car buyers want the latest tech to be available in their new car. This strategy, deliberate or not, is preparing us all for full autonomy of vehicles. On that basis we anticipate the uptake being limited only by regulatory barriers and the supply. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Beyond just driverless cars</h2>
<p>While much of the discussion has revolved around personal driverless vehicles, the interest in autonomous or semi-autonomous freight trucks is growing. </p>
<p>Recent announcements include Tesla’s <a href="https://www.tesla.com/semi">Semi</a> electric truck and <a href="https://theconversation.com/coming-soon-to-a-highway-near-you-truck-platooning-87748">trials in truck platooning</a> around the world. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coming-soon-to-a-highway-near-you-truck-platooning-87748">Coming soon to a highway near you: truck platooning</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>With respect to the motoring industry that is associated with trucking and other non-personal vehicles, how does Brett see autonomy unfolding?</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Brett</strong>: Arguably, business has a greater financial incentive to drive productivity and safety of their business than individuals do. The benefits of AV to business are yet to be fully understood but as the technology becomes familiar so too will the demand for AI and AV to help business grow.</p>
<p>The support for pilot programs using AV technology needs to increase by all levels of government as a strategy to educate and reassure consumers and business.</p>
<p>Currently we see most states and the federal government making claims that they support and encourage the rollout of new technology, but to date, it’s more talk than action.</p>
<p>The application of AVs is being considered by larger corporates who have teams dedicated to researching technologies that increase return on investment, but with better backed educational and awareness programs, all businesses could benefit.</p>
<p>If we look at the application of the use of different levels of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/16/future-of-farming-driverless-tractors-ag-robots.html">autonomy in farm machinery</a>, which goes unnoticed by most, we can expect that business will lead the uptake eventually. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Shaping the future of driverless cars</h2>
<p>There’s both optimism and fear regarding the introduction of technologies like autonomous vehicles and the artificial intelligence that will drive them. So what does Brett think Australian consumers and workers in the motor industry can do to influence and not be caught unawares by these inevitable, but unpredictable changes?</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Brett</strong>: Education and awareness is key to the successful rollout of AV and AI. Consumers need to be assured that this is an evolving technology that is already prevalent to some degree, and that complete autonomy is only the refinement of existing applications in vehicles.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-school-of-hard-knocks-driverless-cars-should-learn-lessons-from-crashes-75771">The school of hard knocks: driverless cars should learn lessons from crashes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p>Smartphones and their use have changed the way in which consumers embrace new technology. More often consumers <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/619788/average-smartphone-life/">upgrade their technology equipment</a> well before its end of product life. This is the conditioning that has consumers waiting for no one.</p>
<p>We know that consumers are the “why” and technology is the “how” for all disruption. Clearly this new technology is what consumers seek and it is imperative that business and regulators respond to prepare for the future. </p>
<p>If we move quickly to embrace this new technology, Australia could attain global competitiveness in areas not yet considered.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89972/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor Michael Milford is a Chief Investigator at the Australian Centre for Robotic Vision, an Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Microsoft Research Faculty Fellow and Founding Director of the education startup Math Thrills Pty Ltd. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Queensland Government, Caterpillar Corporation, Mining3, Microsoft, the Asian Office of Aerospace Research and Development and AMP.</span></em></p>Traditional car manufacturing may have gone from Australia with a loss of jobs, but one senior figure in the motor industry sees a potential for new jobs thanks to driverless cars.Michael Milford, Professor, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/872422018-01-01T22:37:46Z2018-01-01T22:37:46ZDriverless cars could be better or worse for our health – it’s up to us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/198657/original/file-20171211-9389-azomt9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">We are told driverless cars will be much safer, because human error causes more than 90% of crashes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Driverless cars – autonomous vehicles – are coming. The topic is a constant presence in media; The New York Times Magazine recently devoted <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/08/magazine/tech-design-autonomous-future-cars-100-percent-augmented-reality-policing.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fmagazine&action=click&contentCollection=magazine&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=8&pgtype=sectionfront">most of an issue</a> to it.</p>
<p>The technological imperative is strong: if we have the technology, we have to use it. The economic imperative is even stronger. Many industries see big dollar signs. Governments want to be somewhat cautious, but they don’t want to be left behind.</p>
<p>The sales pitches are becoming clear: driverless cars will free drivers to do other things; driverless cars will reduce congestion because they can travel closer together; driverless cars will create massive economic opportunities. </p>
<p>We are also told driverless cars will be much safer, because human error causes more than 90% of crashes. </p>
<h2>Understanding how cars affect our health</h2>
<p>Human-operated cars affect health in three main ways, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5349496/">all negatively</a>. How might driverless cars be healthier?</p>
<p>First, car crashes killed around <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs358/en/">1.25 million people worldwide</a>, 1,200 of whom <a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2015/country_profiles/Australia.pdf?ua=1">were Australian</a>, in 2015. The claims that driverless cars will kill fewer people are credible, but unproven.</p>
<p>Safety improvements will depend on the technology in the cars, which is currently being developed and tested. Safety also depends on how the surrounding environments are engineered or re-engineered to keep people and things from darting in front of driverless cars.</p>
<p>Second, cars kill people by creating pollution. Cars with internal combustion engines produce gases and particulates, which cause lung disease. Motor vehicles are also one of the biggest sources of carbon dioxide worldwide, which causes climate change.</p>
<p>The polluting effects of electric cars depend on how the electricity they use is generated. Thus, the pollution-related benefits of driverless cars depend on the mix of petroleum-powered versus electric-powered vehicles.</p>
<p>This mix is difficult to predict and likely to differ by country. The pollution effects of driverless cars will also depend on whether they travel more or fewer total kilometres than today’s cars.</p>
<p>Third, cars kill people because we sit while we drive, reducing healthier modes of transport like walking, cycling, or even taking public transport. Public transport is a healthy mode of travel because people generally have to walk or cycle to, from and between stops and stations. </p>
<p>Little physical activity and too much sitting independently contributes to the chronic diseases that <a href="http://getaustraliastanding.org/pdfs/research/77.pdf">kill most people</a> in the world. Those diseases are usually heart diseases, strokes, multiple cancers, and diabetes. </p>
<p>Driverless cars will do nothing to reduce the effects of cars on chronic diseases unless they are introduced in a way that reduces the time people spend sitting in cars.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-transport-projects-arent-as-good-for-your-health-as-they-could-be-68326">Why transport projects aren’t as good for your health as they could be</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<p>More than 90% of the negative health impacts of cars result from the effects on physical activity, sitting, and chronic disease. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5349496/pdf/emss-71710.pdf">modelling</a> found that if 10% of motorised transport in Melbourne was shifted to walking or cycling, improvements in disability-adjusted life-years for every 100,000 people (an indicator of quantity and quality of life) would be -34 (worse) for road trauma (mainly because cyclists might not be protected from cars), +2 for lung diseases, and +708 for the combination of heart diseases and type 2 diabetes.</p>
<p>Models for five other cities (Boston, Copenhagen, Delhi, London and Sao Paulo) supported the same conclusion. </p>
<p>Virtually all of the health impacts of cars are due to increasing risks for very common chronic diseases. Therefore it will not matter if people are sitting in driverless or people-driven cars.</p>
<p>One of the implications of these findings is that the people planning for driverless cars should explicitly consider the health consequences of driverless cars. Injuries from crashes and air pollution are routinely considered in transportation planning, but impacts on physical activity and chronic diseases are not. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-restore-the-publics-faith-in-transport-planning-73684">How do we restore the public’s faith in transport planning?</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Transportation planning goals and methods need to incorporate chronic disease impacts generally, but especially when planning a major disruption like accommodating driverless cars. Ideally, public health professionals will be at the table as questions are asked and decisions are made.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/198704/original/file-20171212-9451-crny3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/198704/original/file-20171212-9451-crny3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198704/original/file-20171212-9451-crny3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198704/original/file-20171212-9451-crny3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198704/original/file-20171212-9451-crny3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198704/original/file-20171212-9451-crny3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198704/original/file-20171212-9451-crny3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mina92/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What will the ‘car 2.0’ era look like?</h2>
<p>It is completely unclear what a world with driverless cars will look like. </p>
<p>The driverless future depends mainly on who is making decisions about driverless cars, and the outcomes are likely to vary across countries. Most of the discussion so far has been about the technology’s ability to keep driverless cars from running into each other and people on the streets. </p>
<p>Automobile companies, including both legacy (like Ford and Mercedes-Benz) and new entrants (like Tesla and Amazon) will certainly be speaking up, with an eye to maximising their profits and speeding up the transition. But who will be responsible for looking out for the public good?</p>
<p>The biggest health impacts are likely to be based on how cities are changed to accommodate driverless cars. It is clear that designing cities to be optimal for “car 1.0” has been a long-term disaster for health and environmental sustainability. Roads designed to meet transportation goals of moving as many cars as fast as possible are dangerous and unpleasant for pedestrians and cyclists. </p>
<p>Suburban-style developments are based on the assumption that people will drive everywhere they go. But building low-density housing, the separation of residences from jobs and shops, and disconnected street networks enforce automobile dependency. </p>
<p>Urban design and land use policies that create these environments have become common worldwide and <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)30066-6/fulltext">have been shown</a> to have numerous physical (chronic diseases), mental (stress), and social (isolation) health problems.</p>
<p>People are just starting to brainstorm how cities may change for “car 2.0”. The range in visions is enormous, with equally large implications for health. I have heard of two contrasting visions that would have very different health effects. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-smart-cities-1-0-to-2-0-its-not-only-about-the-tech-73851">From Smart Cities 1.0 to 2.0: it’s not (only) about the tech</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<p>One vision is that people will continue to own private cars, but they will be driverless. The cars drive the owner to work, then they either go park themselves nearby or go back home and wait in the garage until the end of the workday. </p>
<p>This would be a dream for car companies, because everyone would keep buying cars, and they would wear out faster because the cars might make two work roundtrips per day instead of one. This scenario would make traffic worse and would provide essentially no health benefits compared to car 1.0.</p>
<p>A second vision assumes that driverless cars would be considered as part of a broader concept of urban mobility that focuses on moving people instead of cars. The emphasis would be on active modes, with greatly improved access to public transport and corporate-owned shared driverless cars used as supplements to the other (healthier) modes. </p>
<p>There would be fewer cars, which would be in use most of the time, so the need for parking would be dramatically reduced. </p>
<p>Think about what could be done with the huge amounts of land now used for parking. Sidewalks could be widened, protected bicycle paths could be added to many streets, and linear parks could be created. </p>
<p>Parking lots and garages could be redeveloped into much more profitable people-oriented uses, revitalising cities and opening land for affordable housing. Cities would benefit from an increased tax base, allowing them to expand public transport. People would benefit by avoiding the huge costs of owning a car.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/198703/original/file-20171212-9422-126xw08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/198703/original/file-20171212-9422-126xw08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198703/original/file-20171212-9422-126xw08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198703/original/file-20171212-9422-126xw08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198703/original/file-20171212-9422-126xw08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198703/original/file-20171212-9422-126xw08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/198703/original/file-20171212-9422-126xw08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vectorfusionarts/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Which future will we choose?</h2>
<p>The transition to driverless cars is an opportunity to create more walkable/bikeable/sustainable/<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-what-our-cities-need-to-do-to-be-truly-liveable-for-all-83967">liveable</a> cities that provide a multitude of benefits for residents, businesses and governments. </p>
<p>However, we could waste the opportunity so that car 2.0 merely continues the mistakes and negative health and environmental consequences that car 1.0 has been delivering for the past century.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-must-plan-the-driverless-city-to-avoid-being-hostage-to-the-technology-revolution-75531">We must plan the driverless city to avoid being hostage to the technology revolution</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<p>The critical difference lies in who is making the decisions and what the criteria for success are. Public health professionals should be among the decision-makers, because the consequences are too important to leave to engineers and corporate leaders. </p>
<p>The main criteria should deal with how to use driverless car technology to make people’s lives better and make our cities healthier, more liveable, and more sustainable – not to maximise profits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Sallis receives funding from the US National Institutes of Health, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, JPB Foundation, and School Specialty Inc. He is affiliated with the US National Academy of Medicine, Rails-to-Trails Conservancy, International Society of Physical Activity and Health, Society of Behavioral Medicine, American Heart Association, American College of Sports Medicine, and Circulate San Diego. </span></em></p>Human-operated cars affect health in three main ways, all negatively. How might driverless cars be healthier?James F Sallis, Professorial Fellow, Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University; Emeritus Professor, Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California, San DiegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/841272017-10-03T18:45:41Z2017-10-03T18:45:41ZDriverless vehicles could bring out the best – or worst – in our cities by transforming land use<p>The convergence of <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Technology-and-the-City-Systems-applications-and-implications/Yigitcanlar/p/book/9781138826700">technology and the city</a> is seen as a possible remedy for the challenging issues of urbanisation. Autonomous vehicles are among the most popular of many <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07293682.2015.1019752">smart city solutions</a>. Also known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-pedal-to-the-metal-for-driverless-cars-71936">driverless car technology</a>, it could reshape our cities.</p>
<p>One recent <a href="https://www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf">prediction</a> is that by 2040 these vehicles will account for up to half of all road travel. A growing number of studies are exploring autonomous-vehicle-induced transport disruptions – “<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11116-017-9802-2">trip generation impacts</a>”. It’s suggested these vehicles could:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>decrease private motor vehicle ownership, congestion and air pollution;</p></li>
<li><p>increase ride sharing, road safety, access and mobility;</p></li>
<li><p>redesign or eliminate traffic signals; and</p></li>
<li><p>improve mobility for people who are “<a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/7/696">transport-disadvantaged</a>”.</p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-pedal-to-the-metal-for-driverless-cars-71936">It’s pedal to the metal for driverless cars</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Less research has been done on the effects on <a href="http://fpdl.coss.fsu.edu/sites/g/files/imported/storage/original/application/abfcc477779d0bc0ea825c8011011939.pdf">urban landscapes and the development patterns</a> of our cities. Every change in transport technology – from horse cart to coal-powered train to street car to automobile – has great impacts on our cities. </p>
<p>So, what might autonomous-vehicle-induced changes look like? What are their likely rebound effects on mobility? </p>
<h2>Freeing up road space for other uses</h2>
<p>Road networks on average occupy about <a href="https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch6en/conc6en/ch6c1en.html">30% of a city’s land area</a> in developed countries. </p>
<p>In theory, autonomous vehicles can use road networks more efficiently and thus free up some road space if trip generation rate and population growth are held constant. This space can be redesigned for a whole new spectrum of social functions, street trees, walkways or bike lanes. </p>
<p>However, it is likely these vehicles will enable previously suppressed trips to be taken. The resulting increase in traffic volume will reduce the potential to free up road space for other uses.</p>
<h2>Turning parking lots into social uses</h2>
<p>Autonomous vehicles will reduce and potentially eliminate the need for the significant amount of space <a href="https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch6en/conc6en/ch6c1en.html">set aside for parking</a> in high-demand urban areas. </p>
<p>In these areas of high-value property, mandatory parking supply requirements will have to change. A reduction in parking lots has the potential to transform urban cores, as these spaces can be used for other activities — such as parks, more high-value activities, or affordable housing.</p>
<p>Business uplift resulting from higher-density activities is then entirely feasible (akin to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economies_of_agglomeration">agglomeration economies</a> in cities). This can create more mixed-use and transit-oriented development, accelerate a trend towards inner-city living and make these areas more efficient, productive and liveable. </p>
<h2>Redesigning building and street interfaces</h2>
<p>With an autonomous-vehicle-dominated city, buildings and development will have to adapt to new patterns of traffic flow. They will need to be designed for door-to-door services – mainly accommodating the drop-offs and pick-ups at each and every site. </p>
<p>High-volume sites will need a bespoke interface for multiple autonomous vehicles, while lower-volume sites will no longer need kerbside parking for each development. </p>
<p>This scenario offers much potential to free up kerb space for other uses. </p>
<h2>Transforming fuel stations into new land uses</h2>
<p>Autonomous vehicles are largely envisaged as electric vehicles charged at their overnight parking spaces. The implication is that eventually, once these vehicles dominate road transport, fuel stations will not be needed on the streets.</p>
<p>These locations will require remedial environmental treatment for conversion to other land uses. But once that’s done, this will open the way to alternative uses for the former fuel stations in all neighbourhoods — more convenience stores or online shopping click-and-collect locations? </p>
<p>This raises the question of what would be an optimal productive use for such high-profile, highly accessible sites.</p>
<h2>Converting domestic garage spaces in suburbia</h2>
<p>Some visions of pooled/shared ownership of autonomous vehicles suggest we will have no need to own private motor vehicles. So we will no longer need to park and garage vehicles in residential dwellings.</p>
<p>This could transform a substantial share of housing stock, with garages converted to other uses such as studios, rented short-term lodging, or granny flats. </p>
<p>In theory, driveways will no longer be needed either. These could be turned into greened front yards, spaces for children to play and residents to walk and meet their neighbours. </p>
<p>Alternatively, however, if the space once used for garages and access ways becomes available for buildings, this could exacerbate the trend toward <a href="https://theconversation.com/size-does-matter-australias-addiction-to-big-houses-is-blowing-the-energy-budget-70271">larger environmentally inefficient homes</a>.</p>
<h2>Increasing urban sprawl</h2>
<p>Autonomous vehicles have the potential to induce more urban sprawl, as more effortless travel becomes available to more people. This may lead to a rethinking of the convenience of proximity to the city and major employment centres.</p>
<p>Low-cost housing on the urban fringes has been a major driver of sprawl in cities. </p>
<p>By making travel cheaper and more convenient, autonomous vehicles might make the economics and practicality of sprawl more attractive.</p>
<h2>Changing property values, planning controls and land supply</h2>
<p>While “location, location, location” will remain relevant, autonomous vehicles should act to inflate property values in some neighbourhoods and depress values in others. </p>
<p>Easier commutes in particular will have an impact on residential property prices, and might shift preferences from properties in urban centres to those in suburban areas. </p>
<p>While suburbanisation might speed up, densification of urban cores might also be enhanced. We might see people with very distinctive lifestyles preferring these different locations.</p>
<p>Planning controls and land supply will be key instruments to control the balance between greenfield and infill developments. We need to consider how these controls are applied in this new environment to maximise social and economic benefits.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-must-plan-the-driverless-city-to-avoid-being-hostage-to-the-technology-revolution-75531">We must plan the driverless city to avoid being hostage to the technology revolution</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>How planners will manage the disruption of land use</h2>
<p>Through the convergence of automation, electrification and ride-sharing technologies, autonomous vehicles could significantly reshape real estate, urban development and city planning — as the automobile did in the last century. </p>
<p>This transformation also creates an opportunity for planners to make our cities more citizen-centred by bringing back the <a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/human-scale-public-urban-areas">human-scale</a> and <a href="http://www.urbanecology.org.au/topics/walkablecities.html">walkable city</a> practices that motor vehicle domination removed. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Wai4ub90stQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Urbanist Jeff Speck discusses how we can make our cities more walkable and more pleasant.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How well prepared are urban planners, however, to mitigate the disruptive impacts on our cities? Do we yet even understand what these disruptions and their implications are?</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-future-world-full-of-driverless-cars-seriously-64606">A future world full of driverless cars … seriously?</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Urban planning as a profession is largely unprepared for autonomous vehicles. Planners need to be aware, smart and proactive about the potential impacts, particularly in terms of the potential for renewed urban sprawl. </p>
<p>A future involving widespread use of autonomous vehicles presents both land-use opportunities and challenges. Progressive outcomes will require an objective assessment of their complex land-use, economic and community influences on our evolving cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84127/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s clear autonomous vehicles will disrupt our cities, their land use and planning. Whether they make urban life better or worse depends on how well we anticipate and adapt to their impacts.Tan Yigitcanlar, Associate Professor of Urban Planning and Development, Queensland University of TechnologyGraham Currie, Professor of Public Transport, Director Public Transport Research Group, Director Monash Infrastructure, Adjunct Professor, Monash Art Design and Architecture, Monash UniversityLiton Kamruzzaman, Senior Lecturer in Transport Planning, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/799042017-07-17T05:50:47Z2017-07-17T05:50:47ZThe future of artificial intelligence: two experts disagree<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178380/original/file-20170717-27601-vs3d1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will AI take over the world or lead to a bright future for humanity?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/PHOTOCREO Michal Bednarek</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Artificial intelligence (AI) promises to revolutionise our lives, drive our cars, diagnose our health problems, and lead us into a new future where thinking machines do things that we’re yet to imagine.</em></p>
<p><em>Or does it? Not everyone agrees.</em></p>
<p><em>Even billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, who admits he has access to some of the most cutting-edge AI, <a href="http://fortune.com/2017/07/15/elon-musk-artificial-intelligence-2/">said recently</a> that without some regulation “AI is a fundamental risk to the existence of human civilization”.</em></p>
<p><em>So what is the future of AI? Michael Milford and Peter Stratton are both heavily involved in AI research and they have different views on how it will impact on our lives in the future.</em></p>
<h2>How widespread is artificial intelligence today?</h2>
<p><em>Michael:</em></p>
<p>Answering this question depends on what you consider to be “artificial intelligence”.</p>
<p>Basic machine learning algorithms underpin many technologies that we interact with in our everyday lives - voice recognition, face recognition - but are application-specific and can only do one very specific defined task (and not always well).</p>
<p>More capable AI - what we might consider as being somewhat smart - is only now becoming widespread in areas such as <a href="https://venturebeat.com/2017/05/05/3-ways-retailers-are-using-ai-to-reinvent-shopping/">online retail and marketing</a>, <a href="https://www.cultofmac.com/447898/google-home-google-assistant-siri-ai/">smartphones</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2016/04/08/toyota-guardian-angel-cars-will-beat-self-driving-cars/#6a0facff7f7f">assistive car systems</a> and service robots such as <a href="https://www.choice.com.au/home-and-living/laundry-and-cleaning/vacuum-cleaners/buying-guides/robot-vacuum-cleaners">robotic vacuum cleaners</a>.</p>
<p><em>Peter:</em></p>
<p>The most obvious and useful examples of current AI are the <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/1768652/tips-mastering-voice-recognition-your-iphone-android-or-desktop">speech recognition on your phone</a>, and search engines such as <a href="https://support.google.com/websearch/answer/2940021?hl=en&co=GENIE.Platform=Android">Google</a>. There is also IBM’s Watson, which in 2011 <a href="http://www.techrepublic.com/article/ibm-watson-the-inside-story-of-how-the-jeopardy-winning-supercomputer-was-born-and-what-it-wants-to-do-next/">beat human champion players</a> at the US TV game show Jeopardy, and is now being trialled in business and healthcare. </p>
<p>Most recently, Google’s DeepMind AI called AlphaGo <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/5/27/15704088/alphago-ke-jie-game-3-result-retires-future">beat the world champion Go player</a>, surprising a lot of people – especially since Go is an extremely complex game, way surpassing chess.</p>
<h2>What major advances in AI will we see over the next 10 years?</h2>
<p><em>Peter:</em></p>
<p>Many auto manufacturers and research institutions are competing to create practical driverless cars for general road use. While currently these cars can drive themselves for much of the time, <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-need-to-hit-the-road-come-rain-wind-or-shine-60436">many challenges remain</a> in dealing with bad weather (heavy rain, fog and snow) and random real-world events such as roadworks, accidents and other blockages.</p>
<p>These incidents often require some degree of human judgement, common sense and even calculated risk to successfully navigate through. We are still a long way from fully autonomous vehicles that don’t need a licensed driver ready to take control in an instant.</p>
<p>The same can be said for all the AI that we will see over the coming 10-20 years, such as online <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/12/21/virtual-assistant-usage-gartner/">virtual personal assistants</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-05/artificial-intelligence-taking-lawyer-accountant-analyst-jobs/8415286">accountants, legal and financial advisers</a>, <a href="http://fortune.com/2017/01/10/healthtap-dr-ai-launch/">doctors</a> and even physical <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/robots-to-make-shopping-easier-20161205-gt410e.html">shop-bots, museum guides</a>, <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22630213-200-robot-cleaner-can-empty-bins-and-sweep-floors/">cleaners</a> and <a href="http://mashable.com/2017/04/07/robot-security-singapore/#xy1h06gdbkq5">security guards</a>.</p>
<p>They will be advanced tools that are very useful in specific situations, but they will never fully replace people because they will have little common sense (probably none, in fact).</p>
<p><em>Michael:</em></p>
<p>We will definitely see a range of steady, incremental improvements in everyday AI. <a href="https://www.wired.com/2016/05/amazons-giving-away-ai-behind-product-recommendations/">Online product recommendations will get better</a>, your phone or car will <a href="https://venturebeat.com/2017/05/17/googles-speech-recognition-technology-now-has-a-4-9-word-error-rate/">understand your voice increasingly well</a> and your <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/3/14/14920842/dyson-ai-robotics-future-interview-mike-aldred">vacuum cleaner robot won’t get stuck as often</a>.</p>
<p>It’s likely that we’ll see some major advances beyond today’s technology in some but not all of the following areas: self-driving cars, <a href="http://www.zdnet.com/article/googles-deepmind-and-the-nhs-a-glimpse-of-what-ai-means-for-the-future-of-healthcare/">healthcare</a>, utilities (<a href="https://deepmind.com/blog/deepmind-ai-reduces-google-data-centre-cooling-bill-40/">electricity</a>, water, and so on) management, legal, and service areas such as cleaning robots.</p>
<p>I disagree on self-driving cars - there’s no real reason why there won’t be fully autonomous controlled ride-sharing fleets in the affluent centres of cities, and this is indeed the strategy of companies such as <a href="http://nutonomy.com/">NuTonomy</a>, working in Singapore and Boston.</p>
<h2>What approaches will lead to the biggest improvements in AI?</h2>
<p><em>Michael:</em></p>
<p>Major advances will come from two sources.</p>
<p>First, there is a long runway of steady incremental improvements left in many areas of conventional AI - large, complex neural networks and algorithms. These systems will continue to improve steadily as more training data becomes available and as scientists perfect them.</p>
<p>The second area will likely be biological inspiration. Scientists are only <a href="http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/01/28m-challenge-figure-out-why-brains-are-so-good-at-learning/">just starting to tap into the knowledge about how brain networks work</a>, and it’s likely they will copy or adapt what we know about animal and human brains to make current deep learning networks far more capable.</p>
<p><em>Peter:</em></p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence">Old-fashioned AI</a>, which was based on pure logic and computer programs that tried to get machines to behave intelligently, basically failed to do anything that humans are good at and computers are not (speech and image recognition, playing complex strategic games, for example).</p>
<p>What’s quite clear now is that our best-performing AI is based on how we think the brain works.</p>
<p>But our current brain-based AI (called <a href="https://deepmind.com/">Deep Artificial Neural Networks</a>) is still light years away from emulating an actual brain. Enhanced AI capabilities in the future will come from developing better theories of how the brain works.</p>
<p>The fundamental science needed to cultivate these theories will probably come from publicly funded research institutions, which will then be spun off into commercial start-up companies, and then quickly acquired by interested large corporations if they look like they might be successful.</p>
<h2>How will artificial intelligence affect society and jobs?</h2>
<p><em>Peter:</em></p>
<p>Most jobs won’t be under threat for a long time, probably several generations. Real people are needed to actually make any significant decisions because AI currently has no common sense. </p>
<p>Instead of replacing jobs, our overall quality of life will go up. For example, right now few people can afford a personal assistant, or a full-time life coach. In the near future, we’ll <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/12/21/virtual-assistant-usage-gartner/">all have (a virtual) one</a>!</p>
<p>Our <a href="http://fortune.com/2017/01/10/healthtap-dr-ai-launch/">virtual doctor</a> will be working for us daily, monitoring our health and making exercise and lifestyle suggestions.</p>
<p>Our houses and workplaces might be cleaner, but we will still need people to clean the spots the robots miss. We’ll also need people to deploy, retrieve and maintain all the robots.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Do we still need a human in control of the vacuum cleaner?</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our goods will be cheaper due to <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2016/04/06/self-driving-delivery-vehicle-startup-dispatch-raises-2-million-seed-round-led-by-andreessen-horowitz/">reduced transport costs</a>, but we’ll still need human drivers to cover all the situations the self-drivers can’t.</p>
<p>All this doesn’t even mention the <a href="https://www.computer.org/web/computingnow/archive/february2015">whole new entertainment technologies</a> and industries that will spring up to capture our increased disposable income and to cash-in on our improved quality of life.</p>
<p>So yes, jobs will change, but there will still be plenty of them.</p>
<p><em>Michael:</em></p>
<p>It’s likely that a significant fraction of jobs will be under threat over the coming decade. It’s important to note that this won’t necessarily be divided by blue-collar versus white-collar, but rather by <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34066941">which occupations are easily automatable</a>.</p>
<p>It’s <a href="http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-robots-are-coming-to-take-your-job/">unlikely that an effective plumber robot will be built</a> in the near future, but <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-infrastructure/our-insights/imagining-constructions-digital-future">aspects of the so far undisrupted construction industry may change radically</a>.</p>
<p>Some people say machines will never have the emotional capabilities of humans. Whether that is true or not, many jobs will be under threat with even the most rudimentary levels of emotional understanding and interaction. </p>
<p>Don’t think about the complex, nuanced interaction you had with your psychologist; instead think about the one with that disinterested, uncaring part-time hospitality worker. The bar for disruption is not as high as many think. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The robot bartender.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That leaves the question of what happens then. There are two scenarios - the first being that, like in the past, new types of jobs are generated by the technological revolution. </p>
<p>The other is that humanity gradually transitions into a Utopian society where scientific, artistic and sporting pursuits are pursued at leisure. The short to medium-term reality is probably somewhere in between.</p>
<h2>Will Skynet/the machines take over and enslave humanity?</h2>
<p><em>Michael:</em></p>
<p>It’s unlikely in the near future but possible. The real danger is the unpredictability. Skynet-like killer cyborgs as featured in the <a href="https://moviesorder.com/terminator/">Terminator film series</a> are unlikely because that development cycle takes a while, and we have multiple opportunities to stop development. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">He could be back!</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But AI could destroy or damage humanity in other unpredictable ways. For example, when big companies like Google Deepmind start <a href="http://www.zdnet.com/article/googles-deepmind-and-the-nhs-a-glimpse-of-what-ai-means-for-the-future-of-healthcare/">entering into healthcare</a>, it’s likely that they will improve patient outcomes through a combination of big data and intelligent systems. </p>
<p>One of the temptations or pressures will be to deploy these extremely complex systems before we completely understand every possible ramification. Imagine the pressure if there is good evidence it will save thousands of lives per year.</p>
<p>As we well know, we have a <a href="https://www.scu.edu/ethics/focus-areas/technology-ethics/resources/the-unanticipated-consequences-of-technology/">long history of negative unintended consequences</a> with new technology that we didn’t fully understand.</p>
<p>In a far-fetched but not impossible healthcare scenario, deploying AI may lead to catastrophic outcomes - a world-wide AI network deciding in ways invisible to us human observers to kill us all off to optimise some misguided performance goal. </p>
<p>The challenge is that with newly developing technologies, there is an illusion of 100% control, which doesn’t really exist.</p>
<p><em>Peter:</em></p>
<p>All our current AI, and any that we can possibly create in the foreseeable future, are just tools – developed for specific jobs and totally useless outside of the exact duties they were designed for. They don’t have thoughts or feelings. These AIs are just as likely to try to take over the world as your Xbox or your toaster.</p>
<p>One day, I believe, we will build machines that <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22930661-800-vision-of-singularity-questions-ai-intellect/">rival us in intelligence</a>, and these machines will have their own thoughts and possibly learn in an unconstrained way. This sounds scary. But humans are dangerous for exactly the reasons that the machines won’t be.</p>
<p>Humans evolved in a constant struggle for life and death, which made us innately competitive and potentially treacherous. When we build the machines, we can instead build them with any underlying motivation that we would like.</p>
<p>For example, we could build an intelligent machine whose only desire is to dismantle itself. Or, we could build in a hidden remote-controlled off switch that is completely separate from any of the machine’s own circuits, and an auto-shutdown reflex if the machine somehow ever notices it.</p>
<p>All these safeguards will be trivial to implement. So there is simply no way that we could accidentally build a machine that then tries to wipe out the human race.</p>
<p>Of course, because humans themselves are dangerous, someone could build a machine that doesn’t have these safeguards and use it for nefarious purposes. But we have that same problem now with nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>In the future, just as now, we have to hope that we are simply smart enough to use our technology wisely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79904/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor Michael Milford is a Chief Investigator at the Australian Centre for Robotic Vision, an Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Microsoft Research Faculty Fellow and Founding Director of the education startup Math Thrills Pty Ltd. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Queensland Government, Caterpillar Corporation, Mining3, Microsoft, the Asian Office of Aerospace Research and Development and AMP.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Stratton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Not everyone agrees on how artificial intelligence will change the way we live. But it’s not all doom and gloom either.Peter Stratton, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandMichael Milford, Professor, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/755312017-04-27T20:06:41Z2017-04-27T20:06:41ZWe must plan the driverless city to avoid being hostage to the technology revolution<p>Trials of autonomous cars and buses have <a href="http://intellibus.rac.com.au/">begun on the streets of Australian cities</a>. Communications companies are moving to <a href="http://themelbourneengineer.eng.unimelb.edu.au/2017/01/melbourne-launches-world-first-connected-living-transport-lab/">deploy</a> the lasers, cameras and centimetre-perfect GPS that will <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-streets-become-a-living-lab-that-could-transform-your-daily-travel-71272">enable a vehicle to navigate the streets</a> of your town or city without a driver. </p>
<p>Most research and commentary is telling us how the new machines will work, but not how they might shape our cities. The talk is of the <a href="http://2015.internationaltransportforum.org/shared-economy">benefits of new shared transport economies</a>, but these new technologies will shape our built environment in ways that are <a href="https://theconversation.com/smart-cities-does-this-mean-more-transport-disruptions-63638">not yet fully understood</a>. There’s every chance that, if mismanaged, driverless technologies will entrench the ills of car dependency. </p>
<p>As with <a href="https://theconversation.com/taxi-driver-compensation-for-uber-is-unfair-and-poorly-implemented-64354">Uber and the taxi industry</a>, public sector planners and regulators will be forced to respond to the anger of those displaced by the new products the IT and automobile industries will bring to the market. But can we afford to wait?</p>
<h2>Three competing interests</h2>
<p>Three distinct groups are giving form to the idea of driverless vehicles. Each has its own corporate proponents and target markets, and its own, often competing, demands on citizens, regulators and planners. Each will make its own demands on our streets and public spaces.</p>
<p>First, the traditional car makers are adding “driverless” features to their existing products. They have no compelling interest in changing the current individual ownership model. Their target consumer is someone who values private vehicle ownership and enjoys driving. </p>
<p>These carmakers’ challenge is to win over drivers sceptical about “their” car doing things they can’t control, whether that is behaving differently in traffic or performing unescorted journeys. But, if successful, these new cars will make driving easier and so encourage more travel and ever-expanding suburbs. </p>
<p>Second, cashed-up IT disruptors like Google and Uber see new types of vehicles and new patterns of ownership as the basis for new transport economies. They want lightweight, utilitarian “robo-taxis” owned by a corporation and rented by the trip. Travellers will use phone apps or their next-generation successors to do this. This, in the jargon, is “<a href="https://dupress.deloitte.com/dup-us-en/deloitte-review/issue-20/smart-transportation-technology-mobility-as-a-service.html">mobility as a service</a>”. </p>
<p>These companies’ ambition is to carve out a large niche in competition with private cars, taxis, conventional public transport and even non-motorised transport. Fleets of shared vehicles in constant circulation can reduce the number of individually owned cars and, in particular, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/disruption-ahead-personal-mobility-is-breaking-down-old-transport-divides-70338">need for parking</a>. </p>
<p>In some circumstances, this may support more compact urban forms. But while sustainability or social objectives might be part of the pitch, the profit motive remains dominant. </p>
<p>Third, public transport operators can see opportunities and challenges in driverless technologies. Already, Vancouver reaps the benefits of lower operating costs for its driverless elevated-rail system.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">In Vancouver, the train pulls into a station with no driver on board.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Savvy operators understand that new vehicle technology is only valuable if it is integrated with traditional public transport services and with cycling and walking. This means central coordination. Vitally, it also requires control of the information platforms needed to provide multimodal mobility. </p>
<p>Such levels of planning and regulation conflict with Google’s “disruptive” free-market ambitions. European operators, who are in a more powerful position in economic and social life than their Australian counterparts, are already <a href="http://www.uitp.org/autonomous-vehicles">mobilising for this contest</a>.</p>
<h2>Whatever the technology, transport needs space</h2>
<p>Many claims for the benefits of driverless technologies rely on the complete transformation of the existing vehicle fleet. But the transition will not be smooth or uniform. Autonomous vehicles will face a significant period of mixed operation with traditional vehicles. </p>
<p>Freeways are likely to be the first roads on which the new vehicles will be able to operate. Promoters of these vehicles might join forces with the conventional car lobby to demand extra lanes. This would dash the hopes of many that driverless cars will <a href="https://www.inverse.com/article/12082-the-future-of-driverless-cars-where-we-re-going-we-ll-need-more-roads">lead to reduced space</a> for mass movement of cars. </p>
<p>After the freeways, the next objective will be to bring driverless cars, trucks and buses onto city streets. This will require complex systems of sensors and cameras. </p>
<p>The ambition is to allow all users to share road space much more safely than they do today. But, if a driverless vehicle will never hit a jaywalker, what will stop every pedestrian and cyclist from simply using the street as they please? Some analysts <a href="http://news.ucsc.edu/2016/10/pedestrians-self-driving-cars.html">are predicting</a> that the new vehicles will be slower than conventional driving, partly because the current balance of fear will be upset. </p>
<p>Already active travellers are struggling to assert their <a href="https://theconversation.com/contested-spaces-virtuous-drivers-malicious-cyclists-mindset-gets-us-nowhere-73371">right to the streets</a> of Australian cities. Just imagine how much worse it would be if a dominant autonomous-vehicle fleet operator demanded widespread fencing of roadways to keep bikes and pedestrians out of the way. </p>
<p>The presence of driverless cars cannot alter the fact that space for urban transport is severely constrained. For travel within and between compact urban centres, we will need more and better high-capacity mass transit as well as first-class conditions for walking and cycling. </p>
<p>The integration of conventional public transport networks with shared autonomous vehicles, large and small, offers many opportunities for a much improved service. But that will happen only if this objective is the major focus of investment, innovation, planning and regulation. </p>
<p>Researchers and policymakers need to move rapidly to gain a holistic and systematic understanding of the multiplicity of driverless-vehicle scenarios and the potential harm that some might contain. The technologies are not an unalloyed good, and governments will need to do more than just be “<a href="http://www.premier.sa.gov.au/stephen-mullighan-news-releases/337-sa-becomes-first-australian-jurisdiction-to-allow-on-road-driverless-car-trials">open for business</a>”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75531/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stone receives funding from the University of Melbourne for work to engage the wider community with emerging research on the governance of autonomous vehicle technologies. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carey Curtis and Jan Scheurer do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s every chance that, if mismanaged, driverless vehicle technologies will entrench the ills of car dependency.John Stone, Senior Lecturer in Transport Planning, The University of MelbourneCarey Curtis, Professor of City Planning and Transport, Curtin UniversityCrystal Legacy, Australian Research Council (DECRA) Fellow and Vice Chancellor's Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Research, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityJan Scheurer, Senior Research Fellow, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/712722017-02-22T03:20:30Z2017-02-22T03:20:30ZCity streets become a living lab that could transform your daily travel<p>Integrated transport has long been the holy grail of transport engineering. Now, a project set up north of Melbourne’s CBD aims to make it a reality. </p>
<p>Led by the School of Engineering at the University of Melbourne, the project will create a living laboratory for developing a highly integrated, smart, multimodal transport system. The goals are to make travel more efficient, safer, cleaner and more sustainable. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.citytransport.info/Integ.htm">Integrated transport</a> aims to combine various modes of travel to provide seamless door-to-door services. Reduced delays, increased safety and better health can all be achieved by sharing information between users, operators and network managers. This will optimise mobility and minimise costs for travellers.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/world-first-hi-tech-transport-research-for-melbourne/">National Connected Multimodal Transport Test Bed</a> includes arterial roads and local streets in an area of 4.5 square kilometres in Carlton, Fitzroy and Collingwood.</p>
<p>Bounded by Alexandra Parade and Victoria, Hoddle and Lygon streets, this busy inner-suburban area is a perfect location to test a new generation of connected transport systems. Our growing cities will need these systems to manage their increasing traffic. </p>
<h2>How will the test bed work?</h2>
<p>The test bed covers all modes of transport. From April, it is due to collect data on vehicles, cyclists, public transport, pedestrians and traffic infrastructure, such as signals and parking. The area will be equipped with advanced sensors (for measuring emissions and noise levels) and communications infrastructure (such as wireless devices on vehicles and signals). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The test bed will collect data on all aspects of transport in the inner-suburban area covered by the project.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The aim is to use all this data to allow the transport system to be more responsive to disruption and more user-focused. </p>
<p>This is a unique opportunity for key stakeholders to work together to build a range of core technologies for collecting, integrating and processing data. This data will be used to develop advanced information-based transport services.</p>
<p>The project has attracted <a href="http://newsroom.melbourne.edu/news/coming-commute-near-you-melbourne-launches-world-first-connected-living-transport-lab">strong support</a> from government, industry and operators. </p>
<p>Government will benefit by having access to information on how an integrated transport system works. This can be used to develop policies and create business models, systems and technologies for integrated mobility options. </p>
<p>The test bed allows industry to create and test globally relevant solutions and products. Academics and research students at the University of Melbourne are working on cutting-edge experimental studies in collaboration with leading multinationals.</p>
<p>This will accelerate the deployment of this technology in the real world. It also creates enormous opportunities for participation in industry up-skilling, training and education. </p>
<h2>What are the likely benefits?</h2>
<p>Urban transport systems need to become more adaptable and better integrated to enhance mobility. Current systems have long suffered from being disjointed and mode-centric. They are also highly vulnerable to disruption. Public transport terminals can fail to provide seamless transfers and co-ordination between modes. </p>
<p>This project can help transport to break out of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/disruption-ahead-personal-mobility-is-breaking-down-old-transport-divides-70338">traditional barriers between services</a>. The knowledge gained can be used to provide users with an integrated and intelligent transport system.</p>
<p>It has been difficult, however, to trial new technologies in urban transport without strong involvement from key stakeholders. An environment and platform where travellers can experience the benefits in a real-world setting is needed. The test bed enables technologies to be adapted so vehicles and infrastructure can be more responsive to real-time demand and operational conditions. </p>
<p>Rapid advancements in sensing and communication technologies allow for a new generation of solutions to be developed. However, artificial environments and computer simulation models lack the realism to ensure new transport technologies can be properly designed and evaluated. The living lab provides this. </p>
<p>The test bed will allow governments and transport operators to share data using a common information platform. People and vehicles will be able to communicate with each other and the transport infrastructure to allow the whole system to operate more intelligently. The new active transport systems will lead to safety and health benefits.</p>
<p>The test bed allows impacts on <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-future-world-full-of-driverless-cars-seriously-64606">safety in a connected environment</a> to be investigated. Interactions between active transport modes such as walking and cycling with connected or autonomous vehicles can be examined to ensure safety is enhanced in complex urban environments. Researchers will study the effects of warning systems such as red light violation, pedestrian movements near crossings, and bus stops. </p>
<p>Low-carbon mobility solutions will also be evaluated to improve sustainability and cut transport emissions. </p>
<p>Environmental sensors combined with traffic-measurement devices will help researchers understand the effects of various types of vehicles and congestion levels. This includes the impacts of emerging <a href="https://theconversation.com/drafts/63638/edit">disruptive technologies</a> such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-winners-and-losers-in-the-race-for-driverless-cars-63874">autonomous</a>, on-demand, <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-000-cars-and-no-garage-why-car-sharing-works-31179">shared</a> mobility systems. </p>
<p>A range of indoor and outdoor sensor networks, such as Wi-Fi, will be used to trial integrated public transport services at stations and terminals. The goal is to ensure seamless transfers between modes and optimised transit operations.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The main image caption was corrected on February 23.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71272/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Majid Sarvi works for the University of Melbourne as the Professor in Transport for Smart Cities.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary Liddle and Russell G. Thompson do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A project set up north of Melbourne’s CBD aims to create a living laboratory for developing a highly integrated, smart, multimodal transport system.Majid Sarvi, Chair in Transport Engineering and the Professor in Transport for Smart Cities, The University of MelbourneGary Liddle, Enterprise Professor, Transport, The University of MelbourneRussell G. Thompson, Associate Professor in Transport Engineering, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/713932017-01-18T16:13:09Z2017-01-18T16:13:09ZHow driverless transport could bring an end to commuter rail strike misery<p>It’s not easy being a rail passenger in Britain. In recent months, London and south-east England have regularly ground to a halt in a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-38200425">series of rail</a> and <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/tube-strikes-2017-threat-of-further-walkout-looms-as-talks-adjourned-a3442071.html">Underground strikes</a>, disrupting the lives of millions. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2617488/southern-rail-strikes-passengers-drive-trains/">newspaper headline even claimed</a> that the situation was so dire that commuters might be hired by one firm – Southern Rail – to drive the trains themselves. Recent reports suggest that <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/18/southern-rail-restore-full-timetable-next-week/">some kind of resolution</a> may soon be in sight in that dispute, but as technology advances apace, do transport networks really need staff at all?</p>
<p>With a <a href="http://fortune.com/2017/01/14/vegas-self-driving-bus/">self-driving bus, the Navya, arriving on the streets Las Vegas</a>, the first in the US to operate on a public road, we may be approaching a future in which public transport networks could be run, efficiently, by machines. Indeed, London’s <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-tfl/what-we-do/docklands-light-railway">Docklands Light Railway</a> (DLR) network has been operating as a driverless service since 1987 – and 99% of services leave on time.</p>
<p>There rages, however, an embittered debate about how comfortable people may feel entrusting themselves to an <a href="https://theconversation.com/google-car-crash-whos-to-blame-when-a-driverless-car-has-an-accident-55664">automated decision maker</a>. It seems to represent a new, psychological frontier of a kind we have never before encountered.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"817928823819776000"}"></div></p>
<p>Whenever machinery is introduced to complete tasks traditionally done by humans, both public and professionals are often sceptical – especially when those machines can make decisions on our behalf. But while decision-making machines used to be little more than a theoretical issue, a philosophical debate even, we now have the technology to make them a fact of life.</p>
<p>There are vehicles lurking in corporate R&D hangars whose decision-making abilities on the go are superior to our own, and they are being tested by brands such as <a href="http://www.gayot.com/lifestyle/automobile/lists/self-driving-cars/tesla-model-s-p90d.html">Tesla, Volvo, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, Audi, and Rolls-Royce</a>.</p>
<h2>A new age</h2>
<p>So what is stopping their wider introduction? The key term used by innovation management experts for how ready a society is for change is “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2393553?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Absorptive Capacity</a>”. This can be likened to the ability of a sponge to absorb liquid, or, in our case, a society to absorb innovation. This absorptive capacity can be influenced by factors such as people’s knowledge and experience of the subject at hand; if there is little of both in society, then that society is likely to react coolly to a proposed innovation. </p>
<p>In other words, if we don’t know enough about how something works we are less likely to embrace it. And how do we get to understand new things if their makers are tight-lipped about how they work? This is one of the biggest obstacles facing the implementation of a far-reaching driverless transport network.</p>
<p>Accidents involving new technology don’t help in the trustworthiness stakes – as the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/30/tesla-autopilot-death-self-driving-car-elon-musk">recent crash of a Tesla car</a> in autopilot mode <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-teslas-autopilot-cars-be-allowed-on-public-roads-following-accidents-62495">demonstrated</a>. The accident caused people to question the safety of self-driving vehicles, even though they are far <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/520746/data-shows-googles-robot-cars-are-smoother-safer-drivers-than-you-or-i/">safer than human drivers</a>, who cause <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-teslas-autopilot-cars-be-allowed-on-public-roads-following-accidents-62495">94% of accidents in the US</a>. Indeed, human error accounts for <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/the-one-chart-that-shows-what-causes-fatal-plane-crashes-10494952.html">far more accidents than mechanical failure</a>.</p>
<p>We live in times where our technological capabilities greatly surpass the understanding most of us have of them. If only a few of us understand how a telephone works, we can safely assume that even fewer comprehend what goes on inside a computer. We simply don’t know anymore how stuff works – so how can we trust it?</p>
<p>But we <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/why-driverless-cars-will-be-safer-than-human-drivers-2016-11">should</a>. Machines are more predictable than humans, since they don’t have minds of their own, and their suitability for a given task can be established in controlled environments before they are released into the wild. With humans, you never really know what they’ll do next.</p>
<h2>Redefining normal</h2>
<p>It is <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2080364-explanimator-why-machines-dont-think-like-humans/">frequently argued</a> that mechanised brains may not be able to improvise the way humans can, making driverless vehicles easy prey for unforeseen adversity. While this is true, the other side of the coin is that an ability to improvise in odd circumstances may be less valuable than an ability to always respond accurately within a set framework of normal situations. Normal situations, after all, occur at a far higher frequency. In short, a truck or train capable of doing the right thing every time in a normal context is better than a truck with the ability to evade a zombie apocalypse if it happens. They are also less likely to go on strike.</p>
<p>Besides, the wealth of experience gathered by human operators can now be programmed into the circuits of all <a href="http://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=774">driverless vehicles</a>, creating a high level of ability to understand and react to situations we will never have among human drivers.</p>
<p>All things considered, a vehicle operated by a well-programmed computer is set to be superior to a human operator in all but the most unusual situations – which are far less likely to occur than those which frequently trip up human operators. It is very doubtful that any computer in charge of operating a vehicle will ever get distracted, suicidal, angry, irrational, or drunk. It will never act malevolently, it won’t be texting on its smart phone when it shouldn’t be, or be having an argument with its passenger. And it probably won’t get creative and attempt to impress or scare another vehicle operator.</p>
<p>It would seem logical to assume that the level of technology required for running a comparably simple operation like a train on tracks between stations is there. The biggest obstacle is our will.</p>
<p>Indeed, the barrier between us and a new, reliable world of driverless transport may only be our inability to understand – and feel comfortable with – the technology. It will take experience to build that trust, and the chance for this to happen has arrived with the Las Vegas driverless bus.</p>
<p>Perhaps it’s time to get on board.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71393/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Ebbert does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s a new driverless bus on the streets of Las Vegas. It could herald the future of our transport networks.Chris Ebbert, Senior Lecturer in Product Design, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.