tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/energy-consumption-7012/articlesEnergy consumption – The Conversation2024-02-16T13:03:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228182024-02-16T13:03:55Z2024-02-16T13:03:55ZExtraction of raw materials could rise 60% by 2060 – and making mining ‘greener’ won’t stop the damage<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575311/original/file-20240213-16-g7d1en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Extractive mining is predicted to increase drastically by 2060</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industry-banner-open-pit-mine-extractive-2235404905">Parilov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United Nations’ flagship <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/31/raw-materials-extraction-2060-un-report">Global Resources Outlook</a> report is the portrait of a juggernaut. Due to be published later this month by the UN’s International Resource Panel, <a href="https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/coming-soon-global-resources-outlook-2024">it highlights</a> how global consumption of raw materials, having increased four-fold since 1970, is set to rise by a further 60% by 2060. </p>
<p>Already, the <a href="https://courier.unesco.org/en/articles/unbearable-burden-technosphere">technosphere</a> — the totality of human-made products, from airports to Zimmer frames — is heavier than <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-3010-5">the biosphere</a>. From the 2020s onward, the weight of humanity’s extended body — the concrete shells that keep us sheltered, the metal wings that fly us around — have exceeded that of all life on Earth. Producing this volume of stuff is a major contributor to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn">global heating</a> and ocean acidification, and the rapidly accelerating extinction of plants and animals.</p>
<p>As the UN report spells out, the extractive activities that lie behind the concrete, metal and other materials we use are disrupting the balance of the planet’s ecosystems. The mining industry requires the annexation of large tracts of land for extraction and transportation; its energy consumption has <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023001115">more than tripled</a> since the 1970s. </p>
<p>That upward curve is set to continue. The demand for materials is rising, the quality of ores such <a href="https://steadystate.org/two-cheers-for-circularity/">as copper</a> is declining, and deeper and more remote mines <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/green-growth-9781783604876/">require extra energy for extraction</a>. More seams will be dug and more mountains moved to bring glittering fortunes to some while many regions, above all in developing countries, become <a href="https://read.dukeupress.edu/environmental-humanities/article/15/1/3/343379/Sacrifice-ZonesA-Genealogy-and-Analysis-of-an">sacrifice zones</a>.</p>
<h2>Critical raw materials</h2>
<p>Attention is increasingly focused on a particular class of material. “Critical” and “strategic” raw materials are those that face supply risk either in their scarcity or their geographical concentration, and which the major powers require for their military sectors and for competitive advantage in tech industries. Right now, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/04/europe-miles-behind-race-raw-materials-electric-car-batteries-lithium-cobalt-nickel">race for critical materials</a> is geopolitical: each major power wants to secure supplies in allied countries.</p>
<p>Critical raw materials are indispensable to the green transition too. The EU, for example, deems nickel a <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2011:0025:FIN:en:PDF">strategic</a> material in view of its role in batteries. </p>
<p>A wind turbine can require <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/24d5dfbb-a77a-4647-abcc-667867207f74/TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.pdf">nine times</a> the mineral inputs of a typical gas-fired power plant, while the average electric vehicle contains between <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/24d5dfbb-a77a-4647-abcc-667867207f74/TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.pdf">six</a> and ten times those of its conventional counterpart, according to the UN report that is due to be published on February 26. </p>
<p>None of this means that a green economy would use greater quantities of materials than the current fossil fuel-based one. Energy consumption due to mineral demand for energy transition technologies is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023001115">dwarfed by</a> that which arises from mineral demand for the rest of the economy. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the mineral demand of the energy transition stokes the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/net-zero-will-mean-a-mining-boom-electric-cars-minerals-oil-fossil-fuels-climate-change-policy-cb8d5137">mining boom</a> in such sectors as copper and lithium.</p>
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<img alt="Back of man in orange hi-vis jacket and white hard hard looking across to copper mine, brown roads and pits, grey sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The need for critical raw materials, such as copper, is rising, but mining must develop more sustainable practices.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/copper-mine-worker-open-pit-surveying-2299216889">Einstock/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Urban mining</h2>
<p>Mining must change in order to reduce its environmental impact. On the supply side, recovering minerals from waste goods can be ramped up, for instance by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/28/retailers-to-pay-for-consumers-e-waste-recycling-from-2026-under-uk-plans">forcing retailers to offer collections</a> of household electronic waste that can be sent for enhanced recycling. </p>
<p>There is scope for urban mining: for example, locating copper from <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344922006723">inactive underground power cables</a> or recovering elements from <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344922006723">construction waste</a>, sewage, incinerator ash and other garbage zones.</p>
<p>In practice, however, the use of secondary materials relative to newly-extracted ones is <a href="https://steadystate.org/two-cheers-for-circularity/">declining</a>. The recovery rates of minerals from recycling remain low. Another <a href="https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/recycling-rates-metals">UN study</a> of 60 metals found the recycling rate for most of them was below one percent. </p>
<p>The current economic system makes extractive mining cheaper and easier than urban mining. Extractive mining involves the purchase of cheap land, often in developing countries. </p>
<p>That land gets dug up, pulverised and processed in a simple flow that is amenable to capital-intensive operations. Urban mining by contrast is often labour-intensive and requires a complex and state-enforced <a href="http://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/urban-mining-reuse-recycle-old-goods-electronics-save-planet-climate-crisis/">regulation of waste streams</a>.</p>
<p>Urban mining suffers from the refusal of governments to shift taxation from labour to “the use of non-renewable resources”, as <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9780230288843">Walter Stahel</a>, an originator of the circular economy concept, recommended in 2006. Until robust regulation and taxation is introduced, all forms of circular economy risk unleashing <a href="https://www.greeneconomycoalition.org/news-and-resources/circular-economy-isnt-enough-we-need-system-change">rebound effects</a>. </p>
<p>So, throwing more materials onto the market lowers prices, which tends to expedite economic growth, raise energy consumption, and proliferate environmental harms. In short, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12545">there is nothing intrinsically “green”</a> about urban mining or the circular economy. The progressive potential of all such engineering programmes is governed by the political-economic framework.</p>
<h2>Is degrowth the answer?</h2>
<p>The insufficiency of engineering and <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/green-growth-9781783604876/">green growth</a> programmes has informed the waxing interest in “degrowth” strategies. This term is not intended to suggest that all economic sectors should shrink, but that for society-nature relations to regain some balance, the unsustainable global use of materials and energy must radically reduce, and in an egalitarian manner. </p>
<p>As the scale of the environmental crisis grows more daunting, even moderate voices — not degrowthers — have recognised that certain sectors, such as shipping and aviation, will have to be <a href="http://www.eng.cam.ac.uk/news/absolute-zero">cut to virtually zero</a> over the next 20 or 30 years.</p>
<p>What does this mean for critical minerals? According to degrowth advocate <a href="https://www.jasonhickel.org/blog/2023/12/21/accelerationist-possibilities-in-an-ecosocialist-degrowth-scenario">Jason Hickel</a>, political means should be forged through which to plan priority sectors.</p>
<p>Reducing luxury and wasteful sectors such as SUVs, aviation and fast fashion would free up critical materials for the green transition. “Factories that produce SUVs could produce solar panels instead,” suggests Hickel. “Engineers who are presently developing private jets could work on innovating more efficient trains and wind turbines instead.”</p>
<p>Such practical examples highlight the possibility that today’s predictions of utterly unsustainable materials throughput by 2060 could at least be revised downward.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gareth Dale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Extractive mining disrupts the balance of the planet’s ecosystems and is set to rise. Could urban mining or degrowth help curb unsustainable practices?Gareth Dale, Reader in Political Economy, Brunel University LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209902024-01-26T17:58:07Z2024-01-26T17:58:07ZAI is supposed to make us more efficient – but it could mean we waste more energy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571460/original/file-20240125-27-18nqs5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6698%2C3138&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">khunkornStudio / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The European Union is negotiating an <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-the-world-is-finally-starting-to-regulate-artificial-intelligence-what-to-expect-from-us-eu-and-chinas-new-laws-217573">Artificial Intelligence Act</a>, the world’s first comprehensive law that aims to regulate artificial intelligence (AI) based on the risk it poses to individuals, society and the environment. </p>
<p>However, discussions of AI overlook one significant environmental risk: a potential increase in energy consumption from using it in everyday activities. Without acknowledging this risk, the development of AI may contribute to the climate emergency.</p>
<p>AI can be a double-edged sword. It can be a <a href="https://oxford.shorthandstories.com/ai-how-is-it-being-used-at-oxford/index.html#group-section-Nature-climate-and-the-universe-B1jpQkO4l2">powerful tool for climate action</a>, improving the efficiency of the energy grid, modelling climate change predictions or monitoring climate treaties. But the infrastructure needed to run AI is <a href="https://aiindex.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/HAI_AI-Index-Report_2023.pdf">energy- and resource-intensive</a>. “Training” a large language model such as OpenAI’s GPT-3, a popular AI-powered chatbot, requires lots of electricity to power data centres that then need <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.03271.pdf">lots of water</a> to cool down. </p>
<p>In fact, the true scale of AI’s impact on the environment is probably underestimated, especially if we focus only on the direct carbon footprint of its infrastructure. Today, AI <a href="https://theconversation.com/forget-dystopian-scenarios-ai-is-pervasive-today-and-the-risks-are-often-hidden-218222">permeates almost all aspects</a> of our digitalised daily lives. Businesses use AI to develop, market and deliver products, content and services more efficiently, and AI influences how we search, shop, socialise and organise our everyday lives.</p>
<p>These changes have massive implications for our total energy consumption at a time when we need to actively reduce it. And it’s not yet clear that AI will support us in making more climate-positive choices.</p>
<h2>How AI is changing us</h2>
<p>AI can indirectly change how much energy we use by changing our activities and behaviour – for instance, by completing tasks more efficiently or by substituting analogue tools like physical maps with their digital equivalents. However, things can backfire if convenience and lower costs simply spur demand for more goods or services. This is known as a “<a href="https://vs.inf.ethz.ch/publ/papers/CoroamaMattern2019-DigitalRebound.pdf">rebound effect</a>”, and when the rebound effect is larger than the energy saving, it leads to greater energy use overall. Whether AI leads to more or less energy use will depend on how we adapt to using it.</p>
<p>For example, AI-powered smart home systems can improve energy efficiency by controlling heating and appliances. A smart heating system is estimated to reduce gas consumption by <a href="https://www.bi.team/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/311013-Evaluating-Nest-BIT-Exec-Tech-Summaries.pdf">around 5%</a>. Home energy management and automation could even reduce households’ CO₂ consumption by <a href="https://smarter2030.gesi.org/downloads/Full_report.pdf">up to 40%</a>. </p>
<p>However, a more efficient and comfortably heated home can make people stay at home more often with the heating on. People may also have increased comfort expectations of a warmer house and pre-warming of spaces. A study on <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frsus.2023.1178089/full">smart homes</a> found that people purchase and use additional smart devices to increase control and comfort, rather than to use less energy. </p>
<p>In the transport sector, ride-hailing apps that use AI to optimise routes can reduce travel time, distance and congestion. Yet they are displacing more sustainable public transportation and increasing travel demand, resulting in <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/ride-hailing-climate-risks">69% more climate pollution</a>. </p>
<p>As AI in the transportation sector becomes more advanced, the effect may escalate. The convenience of an autonomous vehicle may increase people’s travel and in a worst-case scenario, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187661021736410X">double the amount of energy used for transport</a>.</p>
<p>In retail, AI-powered advertising and search functions, personalised recommendations or virtual personal assistants may encourage overconsumption rather than sustainable shopping.</p>
<p>Rebound effects can also transpire through time use and across sectors. Research predicts that AI could take <a href="https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2023-02-22-40-time-spent-mundane-chores-could-be-automated-within-10-years-ai-experts-0">over 40% of our time spent doing domestic chores</a> within the next ten years. That idle time is now available for other activities which may be more energy-intensive, such as additional travel.</p>
<h2>How AI is affecting climate action</h2>
<p>At a larger scale, AI will also have systemic impacts that threaten climate action. We are aware of AI’s risks of exacerbating misinformation, bias and discrimination, and inequalities. These risks will have knock-on effects on our ability to take action on climate change. Erosion of people’s trust, agency and political engagement may <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2022.2121254">undermine their desire</a> to cut emissions and adapt to climate change.</p>
<p>As we grapple with the potential risks of AI, we have to broaden our understanding of how it will affect our behaviour and our environment. Scientists have called for more work to improve and standardise <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.02001">accounting methodologies for reporting the carbon emissions</a> of AI models. Others have proposed best-practice solutions to reduce energy and carbon emissions from <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9810097">machine learning</a>. </p>
<p>These efforts tackling the direct carbon footprint of AI infrastructure are important, but not enough. When considering the true environmental impacts of AI, its indirect impact on everyday life should not be ignored.</p>
<p>As the technology becomes ever more embedded in our lives, its developers need to think more about human behaviour and how to avoid unintended consequences of AI-driven efficiency savings. Eventually, they’ll have to somehow embed that into the design of AI itself, so that a world in which humans rely on AI isn’t a world which uses extra energy unnecessarily.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felippa Amanta receives funding from the European Research Council. </span></em></p>Whether artificial intelligence leads to more or less energy use will depend on how we adapt to using it.Felippa Amanta, PhD Candidate, Environmental Change Institute, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2191132023-12-05T19:24:05Z2023-12-05T19:24:05ZAustralian homes can be made climate-ready, reducing bills and emissions – a new report shows how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563535/original/file-20231205-25-yz4yen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C5%2C3463%2C2321&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/interior-view-house-attic-under-construction-379565095">ronstik, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Millions of homes were built before Australia introduced housing <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/energy-efficiency/buildings/residential-buildings">energy efficiency standards</a> in 2003. They’re leaky. Gaps around windows, doors and between building materials allow air to move in and out. So people tend to compensate, with more heating and cooling. It’s costly and damaging for the environment. </p>
<p>Using a national sample of 102,000 Australian homes across all 69 climate zones, we identified the most common housing types. Then we worked out how to make them “climate ready” and what benefits would flow. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/resource/climate-ready-homes-building-the-case-for-a-renovation-wave-in-australia/">new report</a> released today makes a strong case for a renovation wave across Australia. </p>
<p>By combining thermal upgrades with electrifying hot water and cooking appliances, households can shave up to $2,200 a year off their energy bills. And the nation will be closer to reaching net zero emissions by 2050. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Paying for poor performance</h2>
<p>Australians are paying for low-performing homes through their energy bills, and the cost extends well beyond the kitchen table. </p>
<p>Low-performing homes draw more energy from the grid as heating and cooling systems work in overdrive to keep indoor temperatures safe or even comfortable. </p>
<p>Home interiors often look stylish, which contributes to making us feel comfortable. But there’s more to it than that. </p>
<p><iframe id="EdCBf" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/EdCBf/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A home’s performance, and its energy bills, comes down to just a few appliances. That is, those used to heat the hot water, and to heat or cool individual rooms. </p>
<p>In summer, air conditioners need to run for long periods if the ceilings, floors, walls and windows cannot stop the cool from escaping or the Sun’s heat from building up inside. </p>
<p>Multiply poor energy performance across Australia’s housing stock of nearly 11 million homes, and you start to see the scale of inefficiency before us.</p>
<p>We clearly need to improve the energy performance of all low-performing homes.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/on-hot-days-up-to-87-of-heat-gain-in-our-homes-is-through-windows-on-cold-days-its-40-of-heat-loss-heres-how-we-can-fix-that-212117">On hot days, up to 87% of heat gain in our homes is through windows. On cold days, it's 40% of heat loss. Here's how we can fix that</a>
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</p>
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<h2>What’s the solution?</h2>
<p>To reach net zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, all sectors of the economy need to rapidly cut emissions. According to the <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/resource/climateworks-centre-decarbonisation-scenarios-2023-australia-can-still-meet-the-paris-agreement/">latest Climateworks Centre modelling</a>, decarbonising buildings – responsible for <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/energy-efficiency/buildings/residential-buildings">10% of national emissions</a> – is vital if Australia is to uphold its commitments under the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/international-climate-action#toc_0">Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>In 2050, most Australians will be living in homes that already exist today, making renovations an essential part of achieving net zero.</p>
<p>We worked together for more than a year to understand Australia’s residential building stock, how these homes perform and what it would take to get them to a <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/resource/renovation-pathways-defining-zero-carbon-homes-for-a-climate-resilient-future/">zero-carbon standard</a>.</p>
<p>With 69 separate climate zones and millions of homes, Australia’s housing profile looks different depending on the city or town you live in. Townhouses in Brisbane, freestanding houses in Darwin and apartments in Perth can all be made climate-ready, but they can get there in very different ways.</p>
<p>We analysed <a href="https://ahd.csiro.au/">data from 102,000 homes</a>, examining floor, wall and building materials that are key to energy performance. We found just 16 types of homes make up most Australian housing stock. </p>
<p>The most common “archetypes” can be turned into net zero carbon homes with either a quick fix, modest or full climate-ready upgrade. <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/project/renovation-pathways/">The Renovation Pathways project</a> allows us to show how 80% of houses and townhouses, and most apartments, across Australia’s climate zones can be made climate-ready.</p>
<p>Our analysis shows a “thermal-first” approach – improving air tightness and insulation in roofs, walls and floors – optimises benefits from rooftop solar and electrification.</p>
<p>For example, freestanding houses represent 70% of Australian homes. Houses with lightweight walls such as weatherboard or brick veneer – along with a framed roof and either a concrete slab or suspended timber floor – make up nearly half of the total housing stock and are among the worst performing. </p>
<p>Upgrading the thermal performance of such houses across the country offers the biggest opportunity to reduce emissions, as well as significant household savings. </p>
<p><iframe id="93vGm" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/93vGm/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/budgets-energy-bill-relief-and-home-retrofit-funding-is-a-good-start-but-dwarfed-by-the-scale-of-the-task-205380">Budget's energy bill relief and home retrofit funding is a good start, but dwarfed by the scale of the task</a>
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<h2>Show me the money</h2>
<p>When combining thermal upgrades with electrifying hot water and cooking appliances, people living in detached houses could save on average between $1,850 and $2,200 a year off their energy bills.</p>
<p>Occupants of townhouses could save between $1,270 and $1,480 a year, and occupants in apartments between $1,030 and $1,200 a year.</p>
<p>As well as much-needed emissions savings for Australia, zero-carbon homes would deliver much-needed savings to residents as living costs continue to rise. </p>
<p>Even low levels of insulation combined with the switch from gas to electric space conditioning can save more than two tonnes a year of CO₂-equivalent per house, compared with a low-performing home built to pre-energy efficiency standards.</p>
<p><iframe id="LQzWm" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LQzWm/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Improving home energy performance also has positive effects for Australia’s energy grids. Efficient homes that reduce the need to turn on heating and cooling appliances for long stretches during heatwaves and cold snaps also reduce demand on the energy grid. Each low-performing home upgraded to climate-ready would contribute to reducing peak demand by between 1.4 and 3.5 kilowatts.</p>
<h2>Multiple benefits</h2>
<p>As more energy sources become electrified under the net zero transition, reducing peak demand will both help to prevent brownouts, blackouts and unexpected power outages, and reduce electricity network costs for consumers.</p>
<p>The catch is that at today’s energy prices, it would takes more for residents to break even on climate-ready upgrades. But it is an area ripe for government support. </p>
<p>Two key planning documents the federal government has committed to releasing – an update to its <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/energy-efficiency/buildings/trajectory-low-energy-buildings">Trajectory for Low Energy Buildings</a> and a sectoral plan for the built environment – provide the government with the opportunity to embed policy that will support a wave of energy performance upgrades. </p>
<p>If policy supports a “go fast and go all-out” approach to energy performance upgrades in homes, a self-sustaining renovation wave will ensure more and more households live in resilient, climate-ready homes.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/on-hot-days-up-to-87-of-heat-gain-in-our-homes-is-through-windows-on-cold-days-its-40-of-heat-loss-heres-how-we-can-fix-that-212117">On hot days, up to 87% of heat gain in our homes is through windows. On cold days, it's 40% of heat loss. Here's how we can fix that</a>
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</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219113/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gill Armstrong works for Climateworks Centre, Monash University. She receives funding from four philanthropic organisations for the Renovation Pathways program. These are: Boundless Earth, Energy Consumers Australia, Paul Ramsay Foundation, Lord Mayors' Charitable Trust.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Ambrose receives funding from the federal Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW). </span></em></p>Most Aussie homes are not suited to the current climate, let alone future extremes. But they can be upgraded. A new report identifies the most common housing types and benefits of renovating.Gill Armstrong, Researcher in architecture and urban planning, Climateworks CentreMichael Ambrose, Research Team Leader, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2150552023-10-18T02:31:20Z2023-10-18T02:31:20ZSlow solutions to fast-moving ecological crises won’t work – changing basic human behaviours must come first<p>As the world grapples with multiple ecological crises, it’s clear the various responses over the past half century have largely failed. Our <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/00368504231201372">new research</a> argues the priority now should be addressing the real driver of these crises – our own maladaptive behaviours.</p>
<p>For at least five decades, scientists have worked to understand and document how human demands exceed Earth’s regenerative capacity, causing “<a href="https://www.overshootday.org/newsroom/media-backgrounder/">ecological overshoot</a>”. </p>
<p>Those warnings of the threats posed by the overshoot’s many symptoms, including climate change, were perhaps naive. They assumed people and governments would respond logically to existential threats by drastically changing behaviours.</p>
<p>The young researchers in the 1970s who published the <a href="https://donellameadows.org/archives/a-synopsis-limits-to-growth-the-30-year-update/">Limits to Growth</a> computer models showed graphically what would happen over the next century if business-as-usual economic growth continued. Their models predicted the <a href="https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/limits-and-beyond/">ecological and social disasters</a> we are witnessing now.</p>
<p>Once people saw the results of the research, the authors believed, they would understand the trajectory the world was on and reduce consumption accordingly. Instead, they <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269111802_The_Limits_to_Growth_Revisited">saw their work dismissed</a> and business-as-usual play out.</p>
<h2>The behavioural crisis</h2>
<p>During these past five decades, there have been innumerable reports, speeches and data, <a href="https://www.scientistswarningeurope.org.uk/film">ever more strident</a> in their predictions. Yet there has been no change in the economic growth trajectory. </p>
<p>The first <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/11/World%20Scientists'%20Warning%20to%20Humanity%201992.pdf">world scientists’ warning to humanity</a> was published in 1992 as an open letter, signed by hundreds of scientists and detailing how human activities damage the environment. A <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/67/12/1026/4605229">second notice</a> in 2017, which thousands of scientists signed, included this stark statement:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If the world doesn’t act soon, there will be catastrophic biodiversity loss and untold amounts of human misery. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Many of those working in the natural sciences felt they were doing what they could to prevent this “<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419/full">ghastly future</a>” unfolding. Researchers even <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/00368504211056290">laid out a framework</a> of actions for the world to take, including human population planning and diminishing per-capita consumption of fossil fuels, meat and other resources. But few meaningful changes have been achieved.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/critics-of-degrowth-economics-say-its-unworkable-but-from-an-ecologists-perspective-its-inevitable-211496">Critics of ‘degrowth’ economics say it’s unworkable – but from an ecologist's perspective, it’s inevitable</a>
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<p>By taking a different perspective, our research explores intervention points and demonstrates the behavioural roots of ecological overshoot. It is a collaboration with behaviour-change strategists in the marketing industry, and grew partly from their disaffection with the outcomes of their work on human and planetary health.</p>
<p>Behind the research sits a stark statistic: the wealthiest 16% of humanity is responsible for <a href="https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/ecosystems-resources/data-point-ending-exploitation-of-earths-resources">74% of excess energy and material use</a>. This reflects a crisis of human behaviour. It is the outcome of many individual choices involving resource acquisition, wastefulness and accumulation of wealth and status. </p>
<p>Some of these choices may have served humans well in the evolutionary past. In a modern global economy, however, they become maladaptive behaviours that threaten all complex life on Earth.</p>
<h2>The ‘growth delusion’</h2>
<p>Current interventions to restrain climate change – just one symptom of ecological overshoot – are <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/4811/2022/">failing to curb</a> emissions. Last year, global emissions of carbon dioxide <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022">reached a new high</a>, partly as a result of air travel rebounding after the COVID pandemic. </p>
<p>We argue that trying to fix an accelerating problem with slow solutions is itself the problem. Instead, we need to treat the root causes of ecological overshoot and its behavioural drivers, rather than be distracted by patching up its many symptoms. </p>
<p>A prime example is the current “solution” to climate change through a full <a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK2310/S00052/a-normal-election-campaign-in-abnormal-times-is-dangerous.htm">transition to renewable energy systems</a>. This simply replaces one form of energy with another, but doesn’t address the rising demand for energy that <a href="http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue87/Rees87.pdf">enabled overshoot</a> in the first place.</p>
<p>Such interventions are incremental, resource intensive, slow moving and flawed: they aim to maintain rather than manage current levels of consumption. This “<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/1/3/516">growth delusion</a>” offers a false hope that technology will allow human society to avoid the need for change.</p>
<h2>An emergency response</h2>
<p>To overcome the critical disconnect between science, the economy and public understanding of these issues, an interdisciplinary response will be needed.</p>
<p>Paradoxically, the marketing, media and entertainment industries – central to the manipulation of human behaviours towards resource acquisition and waste – may offer the best way to reorient that behaviour and help avoid ecological collapse.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-temporary-global-warming-above-2-will-affect-life-in-the-oceans-for-centuries-214251">Even temporary global warming above 2℃ will affect life in the oceans for centuries</a>
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<p>Logically, the same behavioural strategies that fuelled consumerism can do the reverse and create the necessary desire for a stable state.</p>
<p>Understanding the many dimensions of the behavioural crisis, including the influence of power structures and vested interests in a market economy, is crucial. Defusing and even co-opting those forces to reform the economy and reverse the damage is the challenge.</p>
<p>It will require a concerted multi-disciplinary effort to identify the best ways to produce a rapid global adoption of new norms for consumption, reproduction and waste. The survival of complex life on Earth is the goal.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This research was led by Joseph Merz of the New Zealand-based Merz Institute and its <a href="https://merzinstitute.org/overshoot-behaviour-lab/">Overshoot Behaviour Lab</a>. Other authors include energy researcher Chris Rhodes; economist and ecologist Bill Rees; and behavioural science practitioner and vice chair of advertising company Ogilvy, Rory Sutherland.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215055/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Joy is affiliated with The Merz Institute and the Morgan Foundation</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phoebe Barnard is affiliated with the University of Cape Town, University of Washington, Stable Planet Alliance, Global Restoration Collaborative and Global Evergreening Alliance, and occasionally works on contract for the United Nations and national governments.</span></em></p>Ecological overshoot is driven by human consumption and a belief in endless economic growth. Could the marketing and media industries that feed those habits also help change them?Mike Joy, Senior Researcher; Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonPhoebe Barnard, Affiliate Full Professor, University of Washington; Research Associate, African Climate & Development Initiative and FitzPatrick Institute, University of Cape Town; Founding CEO, Stable Planet Alliance, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2092192023-08-21T01:52:23Z2023-08-21T01:52:23ZIs it worth investing in a battery for your rooftop solar? Here’s what buyers need to know (but often can’t find out)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536382/original/file-20230708-35060-lwu843.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3326%2C2210&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent electricity price increases of <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/electricity-prices-set-to-soar/5ed9ec22-0861-4546-9291-15b6c2f3094b">20–30%</a> have hit households hard. Some are installing rooftop solar systems and batteries to reduce or even <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/what-if-one-third-of-australians-chose-to-go-off-grid-85095/">end their reliance</a> on energy providers.</p>
<p>However, Australia’s uptake of household batteries lags well behind rooftop solar installations. The <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/system/files/2020-04/DER_Roadmap.pdf">high upfront cost</a> of batteries is a <a href="https://www.solarchoice.net.au/residential/battery-storage-price/">key reason</a>. </p>
<p>A household battery stores excess electricity generated by your solar power system. You can use it later when solar generation can’t meet your needs – for example, at night or on cloudy days. This reduces the amount of power you buy from the grid.</p>
<p>But how long will the battery take to pay for itself, in the form of lower power bills? The answer varies. It depends, among other things, on where you live, your solar system size and design, how much electricity you use and at what times, network tariffs, and limits on how much surplus electricity you can feed into the grid. </p>
<p>Our current <a href="https://www.ecu.edu.au/schools/engineering/staff/profiles/lecturers/dr-asma-aziz">research project</a> has found cases in which a solar panel and battery system will save you money in Western Australia. But the situation varies across Australia. Here, we take a look at what to consider before you buy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Solar panel ready to be installed in front of a household battery mounted on a wall" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542542/original/file-20230814-25-bxxy9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542542/original/file-20230814-25-bxxy9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542542/original/file-20230814-25-bxxy9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542542/original/file-20230814-25-bxxy9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542542/original/file-20230814-25-bxxy9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542542/original/file-20230814-25-bxxy9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542542/original/file-20230814-25-bxxy9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Consumers need to consider many factors to work out whether adding a battery to their solar system is worth it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-curtailment-is-emerging-as-a-new-challenge-to-overcome-as-australia-dashes-for-rooftop-solar-172152">Solar curtailment is emerging as a new challenge to overcome as Australia dashes for rooftop solar</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A tricky transition for consumers</h2>
<p>Almost <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/28/solar-already-australias-largest-source-of-electricity-as-rooftop-capacity-hits-20gw-consultancy-says">a third</a> of Australian households have rooftop solar systems – the <a href="https://www.powermag.com/a-global-look-at-residential-solar-adoption-rates/">highest rate</a> in the world. Households can now generate electricity on a massive collective scale. </p>
<p>This capability is key to the clean energy transition. But when solar systems aren’t generating enough power, households must draw electricity from the grid or a battery.</p>
<p>Battery costs vary with brand, size and location. On average, you’ll pay around <a href="https://www.solarchoice.net.au/solar-batteries/price/#The_Are_we_there_yet_Meters">A$1,420 per kilowatt-hour</a> (kWh) to install 1–5kWh of storage capacity. That’s down from $1,710 per kWh in 2017. The point at which buying a battery makes sense for most households is estimated at <a href="https://www.solarchoice.net.au/solar-batteries/price/#The_Are_we_there_yet_Meters">around $700 per kWh</a> (for a lithium battery with a ten-year warranty).</p>
<p>At current prices, <a href="https://www.solarchoice.net.au/research-solar/is-home-battery-storage-worth-it/">online</a> <a href="https://redbacktech.com/wa-electricity-costs-comparison-solar-and-batteries/">advice</a> suggests the warranty will typically expire before the battery pays for itself. So consumers might conclude they are better off buying solar systems only and waiting for battery prices to drop.</p>
<p>That’s not always the case. Our modelling found the payback time is less than the warranty period in Perth for at least two cases: using 50kWh per day with a 13.5kW solar system and 13kWh Tesla Powerwall 2 battery, and at 30kWh per day with a 6.6kW system and 6.5kWh LG Chem RESU battery. These batteries will cost you around <a href="https://www.solarchoice.net.au/products/batteries/tesla-powerwall-2-review">$12,900</a> and <a href="https://www.solarquotes.com.au/battery-storage/comparison-table/">$5,300</a> respectively, plus installation.</p>
<p>Our research also found that while there can be other reasons to get a battery, most people care about the financial benefits. But it’s not a simple decision. Some situations are good for batteries, but many people can’t use them effectively. </p>
<p>The amount of sunshine where you live and electricity prices also matter a lot. </p>
<p>In many cases, batteries might need government subsidies to be worth it.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1632301085909213184"}"></div></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/think-of-solar-panels-more-like-apple-trees-we-need-a-fairer-approach-for-what-we-use-and-sell-205751">Think of solar panels more like apple trees – we need a fairer approach for what we use and sell</a>
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</p>
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<h2>What you need to know to design the optimum system</h2>
<p>Installers usually advise householders on what size solar and battery system is best for them. To get this right, installers need to know:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>household load profile</strong> – its energy use at different hours of the day and times of the year<br></li>
<li><strong>daily load</strong> – the household’s average total energy use in 24 hours</li>
<li><strong>tariffs</strong> – how much the household is charged for electricity from the grid, with higher tariffs at times of peak demand</li>
<li><strong>grid sales limits</strong> – households might be paid for energy they export to the grid. However, retailers may restrict the level of exports, change the feed-in tariff at different times of the day, and block feed-in to maintain grid stability. </li>
</ul>
<p>Most households will not know their load profile. Even if they do, it might change in response to energy providers’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/managing-demand-can-save-two-power-stations-worth-of-energy-at-peak-times-78173">demand management</a> programs – which give households incentives to reduce electricity consumption at peak times. </p>
<p>A system that was optimally sized might not remain so. And once installed, systems are difficult and costly to modify. </p>
<p>Also, customers can’t control tariff changes and grid sales limits. These can have huge impacts on the returns from their solar investments.</p>
<p>Unless all these factors are considered, a household might end up with an unsuitable solar panel and battery system and never recover the costs.</p>
<p>All this means consumers need a reliable source of information. The problem is not a lack of information but an overwhelming amount from a wide range of sources. It can be hard to tell who has a vested interest in promoting certain choices and who is offering independent advice. </p>
<p>Many consumers will leave the decisions to their installer. They must then choose their installer with care.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-maximise-savings-from-your-home-solar-system-and-slash-your-power-bills-197415">How to maximise savings from your home solar system and slash your power bills</a>
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<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Solar panels on tiled roof of house on a sunny day" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542507/original/file-20230814-23-xuo96b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542507/original/file-20230814-23-xuo96b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542507/original/file-20230814-23-xuo96b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542507/original/file-20230814-23-xuo96b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542507/original/file-20230814-23-xuo96b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542507/original/file-20230814-23-xuo96b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542507/original/file-20230814-23-xuo96b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">At times of peak solar generation, household exports of electricity to the grid might be cut off.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How to fix this</h2>
<p>Householders are not the only ones who will benefit from widespread adoption of solar batteries. Network operators will too. </p>
<p>WA has one of the world’s largest isolated electricity grids. It also has a high uptake of rooftop solar. This threatens grid stability when solar generation surges and exceeds the capacity the network is designed to handle. Network operators are permitted to <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/organisation/energy-policy-wa/emergency-solar-management">disconnect systems</a> installed after March 14 last year as a last resort. </p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/using-electric-water-heaters-to-store-renewable-energy-could-do-the-work-of-2-million-home-batteries-and-save-us-billions-204281">Using electric water heaters to store renewable energy could do the work of 2 million home batteries – and save us billions</a>
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<p>If more households installed batteries, they could store surplus energy that otherwise could destabilise the grid. But households want to be sure it’s a good investment. As <a href="https://energyconsumersaustralia.com.au/wp-content/uploads/20230210_Submission-to-the-National-Energy-Performance-Strategy-Consultation-Paper.pdf">recommended</a> by Energy Consumers Australia, a trusted “one-stop shop” is needed to provide independent, tailored advice to consumers and refer them to government programs and measures.</p>
<p>Retailers and installers should provide households with consumer-friendly technology such as home energy management systems, including <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/business/equipment-and-technology-guides/metering-and-monitoring">smart meters</a>, to help them understand and manage their energy use. </p>
<p>Households should also be informed of alternatives. One option is <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/renewable/community-batteries">community batteries</a>, which store and supply energy to a neighbourhood of homes with solar power. Another is <a href="https://www.solar.vic.gov.au/how-does-virtual-power-plant-work">virtual power plants</a> – energy-sharing networks that connect thousands of household batteries. </p>
<p>Armed with all this information, consumers could make more informed decisions about investing in the energy transition. Until then, many will defer the decision. And that could increase costs for both households and electricity networks.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/thinking-of-buying-a-battery-to-help-power-your-home-heres-what-you-need-to-know-192610">Thinking of buying a battery to help power your home? Here's what you need to know</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209219/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research leading to some of the results mentioned in article has received funding from Edith Cowan University for EMCR Grant Scheme 2022 (Stream 2), 2023 ‑ 2024</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daryoush Habibi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In some cases, adding a battery to your rooftop solar system will pay off. But to be sure of this, households need information about many factors – and there’s no single reliable place to find it.Asma Aziz, Lecturer in Power Engineering, Edith Cowan UniversityDaryoush Habibi, Professor and Executive Dean, School of Engineering, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2040962023-05-23T12:27:19Z2023-05-23T12:27:19ZIs generative AI bad for the environment? A computer scientist explains the carbon footprint of ChatGPT and its cousins<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524227/original/file-20230503-18-2bu207.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C5294%2C3344&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">AI chatbots and image generators run on thousands of computers housed in data centers like this Google facility in Oregon.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Google_Datacenter_-_The_Dalles,_Oregon_%2817832143871%29.jpg">Tony Webster/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Generative AI is the hot new technology behind chatbots and image generators. But how hot is it making the planet?</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9xDADY4AAAAJ&hl=en">AI researcher</a>, I often worry about the energy costs of building artificial intelligence models. The more powerful the AI, the more energy it takes. What does the emergence of increasingly more powerful generative AI models mean for society’s future carbon footprint?</p>
<p>“Generative” refers to the ability of an AI algorithm to produce complex data. The alternative is <a href="https://www.unite.ai/generative-vs-discriminative-machine-learning-models/">“discriminative” AI</a>, which chooses between a fixed number of options and produces just a single number. An example of a discriminative output is choosing whether to approve a loan application.</p>
<p>Generative AI can create much more complex outputs, such as a sentence, a paragraph, an image or even a short video. It has long been used in applications like smart speakers to generate audio responses, or in autocomplete to suggest a search query. However, it only recently gained the ability to <a href="https://theconversation.com/generative-ai-5-essential-reads-about-the-new-era-of-creativity-job-anxiety-misinformation-bias-and-plagiarism-203746">generate humanlike language and realistic photos</a>.</p>
<h2>Using more power than ever</h2>
<p>The exact energy cost of a single AI model is difficult to estimate, and includes the energy used to manufacture the computing equipment, create the model and use the model in production. In 2019, researchers found that creating a generative AI model called BERT with 110 million parameters <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1906.02243">consumed the energy of a round-trip transcontinental flight</a> for one person. The number of parameters refers to the size of the model, with larger models generally being more skilled. Researchers estimated that creating the much larger GPT-3, which has 175 billion parameters, <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2104.10350">consumed 1,287 megawatt hours of electricity and generated 552 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent</a>, the equivalent of 123 gasoline-powered passenger vehicles driven for one year. And that’s just for getting the model ready to launch, before any consumers start using it.</p>
<p>Size is not the only predictor of carbon emissions. The open-access <a href="https://bigscience.huggingface.co/blog/bloom">BLOOM model</a>, developed by the <a href="https://bigscience.notion.site/Introduction-5facbf41a16848d198bda853485e23a0">BigScience project</a> in France, is similar in size to GPT-3 but has <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2211.02001">a much lower carbon footprint</a>, consuming 433 MWh of electricity in generating 30 tons of CO2eq. A study by Google found that for the same size, using a more efficient model architecture and processor and a greener data center can reduce the carbon footprint <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2104.10350">by 100 to 1,000 times</a>.</p>
<p>Larger models do use more energy during their deployment. There is limited data on the carbon footprint of a single generative AI query, but some industry figures estimate it to be <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/the-generative-ai-search-race-has-a-dirty-secret/">four to five times higher</a> than that of a search engine query. As chatbots and image generators become more popular, and as Google and Microsoft <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/16/technology/google-search-engine-ai.html">incorporate AI language models</a> into their search engines, the number of queries they receive each day could grow exponentially.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524517/original/file-20230504-13354-hc7ki2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a roomful of people work on computers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524517/original/file-20230504-13354-hc7ki2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524517/original/file-20230504-13354-hc7ki2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524517/original/file-20230504-13354-hc7ki2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524517/original/file-20230504-13354-hc7ki2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524517/original/file-20230504-13354-hc7ki2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524517/original/file-20230504-13354-hc7ki2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524517/original/file-20230504-13354-hc7ki2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">AI chatbots, search engines and image generators are rapidly going mainstream, adding to AI’s carbon footprint.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CabellLibrary/067ff570e6e84672bafd86ae4e975de0/photo">AP Photo/Steve Helber</a></span>
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<h2>AI bots for search</h2>
<p>A few years ago, not many people outside of research labs were using models like BERT or GPT. That changed on Nov. 30, 2022, when OpenAI released ChatGPT. According to the latest available data, ChatGPT had over <a href="https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/ai-news/chatgpt-bing-duckduckgo/">1.5 billion visits in March 2023</a>. Microsoft incorporated ChatGPT into its search engine, Bing, and made it <a href="https://gizmodo.com/bing-ai-chatgpt-microsoft-search-open-public-waitlist-1850401638">available to everyone</a> on May 4, 2023. If chatbots become as popular as search engines, the energy costs of deploying the AIs could really add up. But AI assistants have many more uses than just search, such as writing documents, solving math problems and creating marketing campaigns.</p>
<p>Another problem is that AI models need to be continually updated. For example, ChatGPT was only trained on data from up to 2021, so it does not know about anything that happened since then. The carbon footprint of creating ChatGPT isn’t public information, but it is likely much higher than that of GPT-3. If it had to be recreated on a regular basis to update its knowledge, the energy costs would grow even larger.</p>
<p>One upside is that asking a chatbot can be a more direct way to get information than using a search engine. Instead of getting a page full of links, you get a direct answer as you would from a human, assuming issues of accuracy are mitigated. Getting to the information quicker could potentially offset the increased energy use compared to a search engine.</p>
<h2>Ways forward</h2>
<p>The future is hard to predict, but large generative AI models are here to stay, and people will probably increasingly turn to them for information. For example, if a student needs help solving a math problem now, they ask a tutor or a friend, or consult a textbook. In the future, they will probably ask a chatbot. The same goes for other expert knowledge such as legal advice or medical expertise.</p>
<p>While a single large AI model is not going to ruin the environment, if a thousand companies develop slightly different AI bots for different purposes, each used by millions of customers, the energy use could become an issue. More research is needed to make generative AI more efficient. The good news is that AI can run on renewable energy. By bringing the computation to where green energy is more abundant, or scheduling computation for times of day when renewable energy is more available, emissions can be <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/here-comes-sun-why-large-language-models-dont-have-cost-paul-walsh/">reduced by a factor of 30 to 40</a>, compared to using a grid dominated by fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Finally, societal pressure may be helpful to encourage companies and research labs to publish the carbon footprints of their AI models, as some already do. In the future, perhaps consumers could even use this information to choose a “greener” chatbot.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204096/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Saenko is on leave from Boston University to work at Meta, Inc. She receives funding from Meta, Google, DARPA and NSF. </span></em></p>Generative AI, those astonishingly powerful language- and image-generating tools taking the world by storm, come at a price: a big carbon footprint. But not all AIs are equally dirty.Kate Saenko, Associate Professor of Computer Science, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2050852023-05-10T15:43:02Z2023-05-10T15:43:02ZExcessive personal consumption has serious global consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524646/original/file-20230505-29-4jr98o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3834%2C2155&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Image of the affluent residential neighbourhood of Dubai Marina in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-photo/panoramic-aerial-view-dubai-marina-residential-1571360341">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is a global problem. Its origin is less so, however, because we do not all contribute equally: the countries that suffer the most from the impacts of climate change are precisely those that are the least responsible.</p>
<p>The problem is not only that these countries – and also the poorest sectors within rich countries – cannot cope with these impacts. While 195 nations around the world have signed the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-agreement-is-working-as-intended-but-weve-still-got-a-long-way-to-go-173478">Paris Agreement</a>, and while the United Nations, the IPCC and the European Union speak of a <a href="https://www.unep.org/facts-about-climate-emergency">climate emergency</a>, we cannot ignore the fact that those who accumulate the most wealth are also the main emitters of greenhouse gases.</p>
<p>There is an accepted euphemism for this situation: excessive personal consumption. And it is essential to address it.</p>
<h2>10% responsible for 50% of emissions</h2>
<p>The figures speak for themselves. A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629621003340">2021 study</a> found that rich people leave a disproportionately large carbon footprint, and that the share of global emissions for which they are responsible is increasing.</p>
<p>In 2010, the richest 10% of households emitted 34% of global carbon dioxide, while the bottom 50% of the world’s population accounted for only 15%. In 2015 the situation worsened: the richest 10% were responsible for 49% of emissions, while the poorest half of the world’s population produced 7%. It seems clear that reducing the carbon footprint of the richest could be the fastest way to get to <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">net zero</a> – cutting greenhouse gas emissions to as close to zero as possible.</p>
<p>The problem is that tackling <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629621003340">high consumption</a> is not at the top of the agenda of governments, nor of key policy-makers. This is bad news for the planet and for our hopes of one day reaching zero emissions. This is why Greenpeace and Oxfam put the issue of the <a href="https://www.greenpeace.fr/les-milliardaires-francais-font-flamber-la-planete-et-letat-regarde-ailleurs/">cars of the super rich</a> on the public electoral debate in 2022 in France.</p>
<p>Although <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-022-01075-w">wealthier households are more energy efficient</a>, they are also larger and have more space to heat and cool. In addition, <a href="https://shura.shu.ac.uk/31041/">those with more financial resources own and use more</a> energy-intensive luxury goods and accessories. It is much easier for wealthier consumers to absorb any cost increases without changing their behaviour.</p>
<p>Another example: in most countries, before the Covid-19 pandemic, half of the emissions from passenger aviation were related to the 1% of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421522004979">people who flew more often</a>.</p>
<p>Policy neglect of these large resource consumers is a “missed opportunity” to address inequality and carbon reduction opportunities.</p>
<h2>Inequality environmentally very costly</h2>
<p>It’s not just a question of ethics. Economic inequality is environmentally costly. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32729-8">Joel Millward-Hopkins</a> has calculated that, in energy terms, it is twice the consumption of an equal society.</p>
<p>Ecological collapse and economic inequality are among the greatest contemporary challenges, and the two issues are completely intertwined and have been throughout the history of civilisations. Yet the world economy continues to move toward ecological crisis, and the energy costs of inequality are far more significant than those of population size. Even the most moderate levels of inequality that citizens consider acceptable increase the energy needed to provide a universally decent life by 40%.</p>
<p>At that degree of socially tolerated inequality, a super-rich global 1% consumes as much energy as would be needed to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32729-8">provide a decent life for 1.7 billion people</a>. Mitigating climate change quickly requires profound social changes that reduce economic inequalities.</p>
<h2>Climate tax for the mega-rich</h2>
<p>Efforts to cut carbon emissions often focus on the world’s poorest, addressing issues such as food and energy security, and the increased emissions potential from projected population, income and consumption growth.</p>
<p>However, more policies are needed to target those at the opposite end of the social scale: <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0402-3">the super-rich</a>.</p>
<p>Countries are moving in this direction, but given the thorniness of targeting the influential classes, progress is very slow. Spain’s Ministry of Ecological Transition is proposing to Brussels that people with assets of more than 100 million euros pay a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01297-6">“climate tax”</a> that would enable the country to cope <a href="https://elpais.com/clima-y-medio-ambiente/2023-02-01/espana-impulsara-el-debate-sobre-la-creacion-de-una-tasa-climatica-a-los-megarricos-aprovechando-su-presidencia-de-la-ue.html">better with climate change</a>.</p>
<p>If the mega-rich were to pay a climate tax of approximately 2% of their wealth, this would raise an estimated 300 billion globally against climate change. The measure has <a href="https://wid.world/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CBV2023-ClimateInequalityReport-2.pdf">the backing of science</a> and is one of the aspects that Spain wants to consider during its forthcoming EU presidency.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the <a href="https://inequalitylab.world/en/">World Inequality Lab</a> is not content with just appealing to our sense of ethics. Based on scientific knowledge, it seeks to address the gravest challenge that has ever confronted humanity: climate change and the socio-economic model that has generated it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205085/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fernando Valladares no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.</span></em></p>The countries that accumulate the most wealth are also the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases. Tackling overconsumption would make it possible to reach the desired goal of zero emissions sooner.Fernando Valladares, Profesor de Investigación en el Departamento de Biogeografía y Cambio Global, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN-CSIC)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1945582022-12-08T09:08:33Z2022-12-08T09:08:33ZCould video streaming be as bad for the climate as driving a car? Calculating Internet’s hidden carbon footprint<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497206/original/file-20221124-22-632ace.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1500%2C839&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Internet is anything but immaterial, as all those messages, images, and videos live in data centres, which consume immense amounts of energy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rawpixel</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We are used to thinking that going digital means going green. While that is true for some activities – for example, making a video call to the other side of the ocean is better than flying there – the situation is subtler in many other cases. For example, driving a small car to the movie theatre with a friend may have lower carbon emissions than streaming the same movie alone at home.</p>
<p>How do we reach this conclusion? Surprisingly, making these estimates is fairly complicated. This is due to two reasons: we do not have good data to start with, and even when we do, the comparison with other human activities is often difficult to make. In a September 2022 report, <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/data-centres-and-data-transmission-networks">“Data Centres and Data Transmission Networks”</a>, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“There are currently no comprehensive data on the energy use of all data centre operators globally, so this estimated range is based on bottom-up models.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is remarkable given that we have been able to estimate quite accurately phenomena that are much more complex. In this case, we would only need quantitative information – the electrical energy and the amount of data used – that can be determined with great accuracy. The current situation is not acceptable and should be addressed soon by policymakers.</p>
<p>Talking of tons of CO<sub>2</sub> emitted, kilowatt-hours for electricity, cubic metres for gas, litres of gasoline and cars’ horsepower creates confusion in many, including academics. Most people would not be able to say how much energy they use daily nor what level of emissions these activities cause. But they would be able to tell you right away their salary or monthly rent. The ease of talking about money lies in the fact that we humans long ago decided that a commonly held currency was the best way to trade disparate things. We don’t do this for our energy use, hence the difficulty.</p>
<p>There is no reason not to change the situation, however: the beauty of the concept of “energy” is that nature gave it to us as a number that is <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/conservation-of-energy">mysteriously conserved</a> even when we change its form – for example, from electrical to thermal. Hence, we can always convert it into a single convenient unit, which would make it easy for us to understand the impact of our activities on the planet, including the digital ones.</p>
<h2>Apples to apples</h2>
<p>Let’s see how this could work by spelling out some examples. We choose the energy unit to be the kilowatt-hour (kWh). This proposal was made by David MacKay in his 2008 book <a href="https://www.withouthotair.com/"><em>Sustainable Energy, Without the Hot Air</em></a>. Why the amount of energy used rather than the CO<sub>2</sub> emitted? On the global level, the two concepts are equivalent, given that CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are proportional to the amount of non-renewable energy produced. But almost none of us has an intuitive idea of what a ton of CO<sub>2</sub> is, let alone its global scale values, or how it is generated. On the contrary, almost all of us can read an energy bill and relate it to what was done at home.</p>
<p>Here are three examples:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>A 10W light bulb kept on for an hour will consume 0.01 kWh of energy (1 kWh = 1,000 Wh).</p></li>
<li><p>A car driven in a city for one hour using an average power of 10 kW (approximately 13 horsepower) will consume 10 kWh.</p></li>
<li><p>In Northern Italy during winter, heating an apartment using 10 cubic metres of gas requires approximately 100 kWh per day or 4 kWh for each hour.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>When these activities are compared with the same units, it is clear that there are some (driving, heating) that would have a much broader impact than others (lighting) if their use is curtailed.</p>
<h2>A two-hour film pollutes as much as a 45-minute car drive</h2>
<p>With this in mind, let’s try to estimate the use of Internet in the same units. What we are after now is the amount of energy for a given amount of data transferred, expressed in gigabytes (GB). As mentioned, there are surprisingly no consistent numbers available. Estimates range from 0.1 kWh per GB (<a href="https://pisrt.org/psr-press/journals/easl-vol-3-issue-2-2020/new-perspectives-on-internet-electricity-use-in-2030/">Andrae</a>, Huwaei) to 10 kWh per GB (<a href="https://medium.com/stanford-magazine/carbon-and-the-cloud-d6f481b79dfe">Adamson</a>, <em>Stanford Magazine</em>) – 100 times more. The lower number seems to assume an unrealistic amount of data, almost 10 times the one reported by the World Bank, and implying an average worldwide data usage which is still uncommon even for the Western world (3,000 GB per year rather than 300). On the other hand, the higher estimate seems to have not considered the latest developments in energy efficiency due to new technologies.</p>
<p>It seems that a value of 1 kWh per GB could be a reasonable approximation of the current energy cost of data. Using that estimate, we can now more easily compare the energy use of data with other human activities. For instance, a two-hour movie in 4K resolution is about 7 GB, or approximately 7 kWh of energy, comparable to a 45-minute car drive. This is mind-boggling for something that we perceive as immaterial. Similar estimates would make you figure out that 300 Google searches use approximately 0.1 kWh, which is the same energy required to boil one litre of water starting from 20 degree Celsius, another mind-boggling realisation.</p>
<p>It is possible and plausible that technology will make Internet more energy efficient – that is what many of us physicists try to help with while studying novel materials and approaches to store and manipulate data. However, if we keep increasing the data usage, we will not decrease our energy use. For instance, movies in 8K resolution require four times more data than in 4K resolution.</p>
<h2>Consumption on the rise</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497040/original/file-20221123-14-j3he9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Global Internet usage, 2002-2022" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497040/original/file-20221123-14-j3he9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497040/original/file-20221123-14-j3he9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497040/original/file-20221123-14-j3he9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497040/original/file-20221123-14-j3he9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497040/original/file-20221123-14-j3he9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497040/original/file-20221123-14-j3he9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497040/original/file-20221123-14-j3he9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2002, global Internet usage was just 156 GB. Twenty years later, traffic is approximately 150,000 GB per second, nearly a thousand-fold increase.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://wdr2021.worldbank.org/stories/crossing-borders/">WDR 2021, Cisco Visual Networking Index, 2017–2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The proof is that for several years now, the annual energy consumption of information and communication technology infrastructure is constantly at least 2,000 TWh, 5% of the global electricity use. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06610-y">Projections suggest that we will reach 10% by 2030</a>, indicating that technology may not keep up unless we introduce fundamental new approaches.</p>
<p>There is no doubt that the Internet and a more digital life offer an incredible opportunity to decrease our energy use and reduce our carbon footprint. For example, a single person on a fully loaded long-range round-trip plane flight – say from Venice, Italy, to Los Angeles, California – to attend an in-person meeting has an energy cost of 10 000 kWh. Using the estimates above, it would take eight months of 12-hour-long video meetings in 4K resolution for that person to consume the same energy. In this case, there is no doubt that streaming, not flying, is the best choice.</p>
<p>As with all technology, however, Internet use has an energy cost. It is proportional to the amount of data transferred, and use is highest with images and especially video. When heavily used, its impact becomes comparable to the one of activities that we already recognise as energy-hungry, such as driving a car. We clearly need more precise numbers to take the appropriate measures at the political level.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two women looking at a computer screen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497041/original/file-20221123-12-j3raez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C224%2C5760%2C3474&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497041/original/file-20221123-12-j3raez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497041/original/file-20221123-12-j3raez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497041/original/file-20221123-12-j3raez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497041/original/file-20221123-12-j3raez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497041/original/file-20221123-12-j3raez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497041/original/file-20221123-12-j3raez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Watching a movie online can seem like an energy-smart choice, but research shows that the carbon emissions can be significant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/two-women-in-front-of-silver-macbook-1181723/">Christina Morillo/Pexels</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In advance of having them, we as private individuals can use data in a considerate manner:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Turn off the camera when not needed in a video call.</p></li>
<li><p>Decrease the video resolution when possible, particularly on small screens.</p></li>
<li><p>Watch movies when they are broadcast rather than using on-demand services, which require dedicated computational power and data for each viewer.</p></li>
<li><p>Finally, let’s start thinking in kWh about everything we do, and do our part to help the implementation of such a standard. In this way, we will talk with the same energy currency, as we do with money.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>To help make this happen, write to your gas company, car manufacturer, grocery store and any manufacturers to get them to provide numbers in kWh of everything they sell. This would allow us to set up individual “energy wallets” and decide how to spend what we have in a sustainable way and thus reach our climate goals. Once these goals are defined in a clear and concrete way, it will much easier for individuals, companies and governments to take a sensible course of action every day, in all things large and small.</p>
<p>Part of the frustration that many of us experience these days is that we feel powerless against climate change because we do not have a concrete representation of how to do something about it in our daily life. By talking about the problems in units that we understand and perceive, we will close the gap between the local and the global scales, and hence be more effective in our actions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194558/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefano Bonetti ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The energy consumption of Internet use has multiplied by a thousand-fold in 20 years. So how can we better visualise our energy ‘spending’ and reduce carbon emissions?Stefano Bonetti, Professor of Experimental Condensed Matter Physics, Ca' Foscari University of VeniceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1937062022-11-10T02:28:00Z2022-11-10T02:28:00ZAustralia’s record on energy efficiency has been woeful for decades, but that could be about to change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494562/original/file-20221110-11077-fjlwnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=186%2C0%2C4113%2C2740&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over many years, Australia has barely increased the efficiency of its energy use. Energy consumption per dollar of GDP <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-11/ccep_20-08_working_paper_hugh_saddler.pdf">decreased</a> by an average of only 1% per year from 2002-03 to 2018-19. Over the same period, energy consumption per person actually increased by an average of 0.2% per year.</p>
<p>Of 20 comparable developed countries, Portugal is the only other one to have recorded such an increase over the 15 years to 2020. (The two most recent years are excluded because the impacts of COVID distort these data.) </p>
<p>All the other countries, including European Union members, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada and Japan, <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/P1096-Back-of-the-Pack-110821.pdf">cut their energy consumption</a>, some by over 20%. The decrease for the United States was 12%.</p>
<p>The energy we use to support economic activity and supply essential services to consumers remains a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. That makes it timely that the Australian government today released a <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/neps-consultation-paper">consultation paper</a> on what it calls its National Energy Performance Strategy. The strategy is due to be delivered in mid-2023.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-failed-miserably-on-energy-efficiency-and-government-figures-hide-the-truth-123176">Australia has failed miserably on energy efficiency – and government figures hide the truth</a>
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<hr>
<h2>What is energy performance?</h2>
<p>The term energy performance usually refers to the technical performance of equipment that uses energy, such as a motor vehicle or a refrigerator. In this context, improved performance means reduced energy consumption to achieve a given output, such as distance travelled or cold temperature maintained. </p>
<p>The paper explains that its use of the term energy performance is intended “to encapsulate the broad management of energy demand. It includes energy efficiency, load shifting, fuel switching and behaviour change.” </p>
<p>This is a clever change in language, for several reasons. The first is that it uses a term that the public probably understands better than “energy productivity”. That was the term both the Gillard and Abbott governments used in white papers published in 2012 and 2015, respectively. </p>
<p>The second reason is that it moves thinking away from a near-exclusive focus on price signals and market efficiency, and towards technologies and engineering. The former approach dominated the policy discussion in both the white papers.</p>
<p>The third reason is that including load shifting and fuel switching will make it easier for the strategy to become a major component of overall emissions reduction policy. For example, load switching means people with rooftop solar shift some of their electricity use from night to day, thereby cutting consumption of coal-fired electricity. Fuel switching can mean replacing a gas heating appliance with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-pumps-can-cut-your-energy-costs-by-up-to-90-its-not-magic-just-a-smart-use-of-the-laws-of-physics-185711">far more efficient electric heat pump</a> alternative. </p>
<p>Both approaches, if used appropriately, can reduce emissions and energy costs, without necessarily reducing the quantity of energy used.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1508859028268584966"}"></div></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-pumps-can-cut-your-energy-costs-by-up-to-90-its-not-magic-just-a-smart-use-of-the-laws-of-physics-185711">Heat pumps can cut your energy costs by up to 90%. It’s not magic, just a smart use of the laws of physics</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What are the benefits of improving performance?</h2>
<p>All four of the activities included with energy performance – energy efficiency, load shifting, fuel switching and behaviour change – will be able to reduce the cost of buying the energy needed to deliver an enormous range of goods and services. Lower energy costs mean lower operating costs for businesses and not-for-profit organisations and lower living costs for Australians. </p>
<p>This should not be seen as in any way diminishing the importance of reducing energy use by increasing energy efficiency. As advocates for stronger energy-efficiency policies and programs have long pointed out, improving energy efficiency in housing increases comfort and health, as well as reducing costs. The consultation paper endorses this approach. </p>
<p>The paper also points out that, for these reasons, for some years now, the International Energy Agency has termed energy efficiency the “first fuel”.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-buildings-are-driving-us-closer-to-climate-hell-how-do-we-get-back-on-course-to-net-zero-194166">Our buildings are driving us closer to 'climate hell' – how do we get back on course to net zero?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Paper’s focus on governance is welcome</h2>
<p>The consultation paper is structured as sets of questions on particular topics. Significantly, the first topic is not about policies and programs directed at particular groups of energy users. Instead, it’s about what the paper terms governance. </p>
<p>Nationally, Australia has had policies and programs relating to energy efficiency for over 40 years. The Fraser government first introduced such measures, focused on oil consumption, in response to the so-called second oil crisis in 1979. Since then, federal and state governments from both sides of politics have introduced, pursued and abandoned a wide range of energy-efficiency policies and activities. </p>
<p>In recent years, many policies were abandoned or progressively defunded. There were few significant new initiatives, with some state-level exceptions. Energy policies have been almost entirely concerned with the “big league” issues of energy markets, energy supply and energy security. </p>
<p>It is therefore most significant that this paper prioritises, under the heading of governance, the “need to strengthen the role of demand-side considerations in energy system planning”. It also includes, under governance, consideration of formal efficiency targets. Such targets are an important part of the policies of most of the better-performing countries.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tracking-the-transition-the-forgotten-emissions-undoing-the-work-of-australias-renewable-energy-boom-162506">Tracking the transition: the ‘forgotten’ emissions undoing the work of Australia's renewable energy boom</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>All sectors are under review</h2>
<p>The paper then moves on to examine policy actions in each of the main energy-consuming sectors: residential, commercial and industrial. </p>
<p>The fifth and last topic is supply chains and workforce. These aspects have gained prominence in broader policy discourse over the past couple of years. Some observers see them as being among as the largest potential barriers to a successful transition of the energy system to a low-emissions future.</p>
<p>Comprehensive action is needed to make up for Australia’s woeful performance of recent decades. We will have to transform consumption and efficiency across the full range of activities that depend on energy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Saddler does paid consultancy work relating to energy efficiency and fuel switching policy. </span></em></p>Australia is an exception among developed nations in having increased energy use per person since 2005. A new consultation paper offers hope of policies that can lift the nation’s energy performance.Hugh Saddler, Honorary Associate Professor, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1886942022-08-22T12:26:39Z2022-08-22T12:26:39ZDoes turning the air conditioning off when you’re not home actually save energy? Three engineers run the numbers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479979/original/file-20220818-164-78ogjl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=125%2C440%2C4534%2C3054&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is it better to cool your house all day, or adjust the A/C setting on your way out the door?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/father-carrying-son-on-shoulders-adjusting-royalty-free-image/668763443">Westend61 via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hot summer days can mean high electricity bills. People want to stay comfortable without wasting energy and money. Maybe your household has fought over the best strategy for cooling your space. Which is more efficient: running the air conditioning all summer long without break, or turning it off during the day when you’re not there to enjoy it? </p>
<p>We are a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dXCbQqMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">team of architectural</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TAOTdN4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">and building systems</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AdHh9wwAAAAJ&hl=en">engineers</a> who used energy models that simulate heat transfer and A/C system performance to tackle this perennial question: Will you need to remove more heat from your home by continuously removing heat throughout the day or removing excess heat only at the end of the day?</p>
<p>The answer boils down to how energy intensive it is to remove heat from your home. It’s influenced by many factors such as how well your house is insulated, the size and type of your air conditioner and outdoor temperature and humidity. </p>
<p>According to our unpublished calculations, letting your home heat up while you’re out at work and cooling it when you get home can use less energy than keeping it consistently cool – but it depends.</p>
<h2>Blast A/C all day, even when you’re away?</h2>
<p>First, think about how heat accumulates in the first place. It flows into your home when the building has less stored heat than outside. If the amount of heat flowing into your home is given by a rate of “1 unit per hour,” your A/C will always have 1 unit of heat to remove every hour. If you turn off your A/C and let the heat accumulate, you could have up to eight hours’ worth of heat at the end of the day.</p>
<p>It’s often less than that, though – homes have a limit to how much heat they can store. And the amount of heat that enters your home depends on how hot the building was to begin with. For example, if your home can only store 5 units of thermal energy before coming to an equilibrium with the outdoor air temperature, then at the end of the day you will only ever have to remove 5 units of heat at most.</p>
<p>Additionally, as your home heats up, the process of heat transfer slows down; eventually it reaches zero heat transfer at equilibrium, when the temperature inside is the same as the temperature outside. Your A/C also cools less effectively in extreme heat, so keeping it off during the hottest parts of the day can increase overall efficiency of the system. These effects mean there’s no one straightforward answer to whether you should blast the A/C all day or wait until you get back home in the evening.</p>
<h2>Energy used by different A/C strategies</h2>
<p>Consider a test case of a small home with typical insulation in two warm climates: dry (Arizona) and humid (Georgia). Using <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/buildings/beopt.html">energy modeling software</a> created by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory for analyzing energy use in residential buildings, we looked at multiple test cases for energy use in this hypothetical 1,200 square-foot (110 square-meter) home.</p>
<p>We considered three temperature strategy scenarios. One has the indoor temperature set to a constant 76 degrees Fahrenheit (24.4 degrees Celsius). A second lets the temperature float up to 89 F (31.6 C) during an eight-hour workday – a “setback.” The last uses a temperature setback to 89 F (31.6 C) for a short four-hour workday. </p>
<p>Within these three scenarios, we looked at three different A/C technologies: a single stage <a href="https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/central-air-conditioning">central A/C</a>, a <a href="https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/air-source-heat-pumps">central air source heat pump (ASHP)</a> and <a href="https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/ductless-mini-split-heat-pumps">minisplit heat pump units</a>. Central A/C units are typical of current residential buildings, while heat pumps are gaining popularity due to their improved efficiency. Central ASHPs are easily used in one-to-one replacements of central A/C units; minisplits are more efficient than central A/C but costly to set up.</p>
<p>We wanted to see how energy use from A/C varied across these cases. We knew that regardless of the HVAC technology used, the A/C system would surge when the thermostat setpoint returned to 76 F (24.4 C) and also for all three cases in the late afternoon when outdoor air temperatures are usually the highest. In the setback cases, we programmed the A/C to start cooling the space before the resident is back, ensuring thermal comfort by the time they get home.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479976/original/file-20220818-27-qstjim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Six line graphs that show how the temperature in the house and the energy used vary with the outdoor heat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479976/original/file-20220818-27-qstjim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479976/original/file-20220818-27-qstjim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479976/original/file-20220818-27-qstjim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479976/original/file-20220818-27-qstjim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479976/original/file-20220818-27-qstjim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479976/original/file-20220818-27-qstjim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479976/original/file-20220818-27-qstjim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Energy models can show how much energy a house will use under particular conditions – like Phoenix’s hot, dry summer weather. The researchers ran the numbers on three different HVAC technologies and three different temperature-setting strategies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pigott/Scheib/Baker/CU Boulder</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479978/original/file-20220818-10466-krvwf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Six line graphs that show how the temperature in the house and the energy used vary with the outdoor heat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479978/original/file-20220818-10466-krvwf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479978/original/file-20220818-10466-krvwf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479978/original/file-20220818-10466-krvwf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479978/original/file-20220818-10466-krvwf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479978/original/file-20220818-10466-krvwf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479978/original/file-20220818-10466-krvwf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479978/original/file-20220818-10466-krvwf2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The researchers used the same three different HVAC technologies and three temperature-setting strategies, but this time for a house in hot and humid Atlanta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pigott/Scheib/Baker/CU Boulder</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What we found was that even when the A/C temporarily spikes to recover from the higher indoor temperatures, the overall energy consumption in the setback cases is still less than when maintaining a constant temperature throughout the day. On an annual scale with a conventional central A/C, this could result in energy savings of up to 11%.</p>
<p>However, the energy savings may decrease if the home is better insulated, the A/C is more efficient or the climate has less dramatic temperature swings.</p>
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<p>The central air source heat pump and minisplit heat pump are more efficient overall but yield less savings from temperature setbacks. An eight-hour setback on weekdays provides savings regardless of the system type, while the benefits gleaned from a four-hour setback are less straightforward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188694/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aisling Pigott receives funding from the Department of Energy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Scheib receives funding from the Department of Energy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kyri Baker receives funding from the Department of Energy, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Energy modeling software provides insight into whether letting your A/C relax while you’re gone all day will save you energy – and money.Aisling Pigott, Ph.D. Student in Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado BoulderJennifer Scheib, Assistant Teaching Professor of Building Systems Engineering, University of Colorado BoulderKyri Baker, Assistant Professor of Building Systems Engineering, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1720802021-12-16T12:39:29Z2021-12-16T12:39:29ZUK net zero strategies are overlooking something vital: how to cool buildings amid rising temperatures<p>In October, the UK government released two different strategies on how to achieve its <a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-despite-the-greenwash-its-vital-for-tackling-climate-change-160329">net zero emissions</a> target by 2050 – the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/net-zero-strategy">net zero</a> strategy and the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/heat-and-buildings-strategy">heat and buildings</a> strategy. Although both look at how to <a href="https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/how-do-we-decarbonise-the-uk-economy-in-line-with-cop26-goals/123347/">decarbonise</a> the UK’s economy, they also both overlook an important feature of the future of energy consumption – the demand for cooling.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/08/1097362">most recent report</a> from the UN’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">intergovernmental panel</a> on climate change shows how experiencing extreme heat will become more common as the world warms, with maximum temperatures in parts of England set to increase by more than <a href="https://climatechip.org/your-area-climate-data">0.4°C</a> per decade. This means that the need to cool buildings is a critical issue. </p>
<p>This cooling also needs to be done efficiently. For example, increasing insulation can reduce overheating in well-designed buildings, but it can increase overheating in others without a good ventilation system – resulting in <a href="https://housingmatters.urban.org/research-summary/indoor-air-quality-can-have-adverse-effects-childrens-health">health problems</a> caused by pollution building up in the air. Unfortunately, the UK’s strategies haven’t properly addressed this.</p>
<p>Currently, the UK’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cooling-in-the-uk">cooling energy demand</a> is approximately 15.5 <a href="https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Watt-hour#:%7E:text=A%20terawatt%2Dhour%20is%20a,major%20energy%20production%20or%20consumption.">terawatt hours</a> per year. This is energy which is mainly used in offices and shops. </p>
<p>The figure is only going to rise. In a <a href="https://www.greenfacts.org/en/impacts-global-warming/l-2/index.htm">worst case</a> global warming scenario, where the planet’s surface warms by around 4°C, demand for cooling will <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cooling-in-the-uk">quadruple by 2100</a> in the UK. </p>
<p>It’s also projected that <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cooling-in-the-uk">75% to 85%</a> of UK households will install air conditioning in response to rising temperatures by the end of the century. This could increase the UK’s current monthly <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/electricity-statistics">electricity consumption</a> by up to 15% during the summer season.</p>
<p>Currently, the government’s decarbonisation strategy focuses on increasing the use of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/buy-sell-your-home/energy-performance-certificates">energy performance certificates</a>. These certificates – which you can now find on most buildings – provide a formal rating of how energy efficient a building is, based on things like its design and whether its energy comes from renewable or non-renewable sources. The government’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/heat-and-buildings-strategy">target</a> is for all houses to achieve band C and offices to achieve band B on the scale by 2035. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sample energy performance certificate" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437767/original/file-20211215-21-1pb9b8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437767/original/file-20211215-21-1pb9b8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437767/original/file-20211215-21-1pb9b8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437767/original/file-20211215-21-1pb9b8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437767/original/file-20211215-21-1pb9b8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437767/original/file-20211215-21-1pb9b8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437767/original/file-20211215-21-1pb9b8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Energy performance certificates help show how much energy a building uses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/naturewise/14402799782/">Naturewise/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While these targets provide a good starting point, they’re limited in how much they can achieve. Environmental standards permitted by band C fall woefully short of those permitted by band A, allowing three times band A’s non-renewable energy consumption. And ratings are based on <a href="https://epbd-ca.eu/ca-outcomes/2011-2015">average</a> climate conditions, not potential <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/chances-of-40c-days-in-the-uk-increasing-due-to-human-influence">future temperatures</a>.</p>
<h2>Changing cooling</h2>
<p>At the moment, reducing cooling energy demand is not explicitly part of energy policies for buildings in the UK. There need to be specific regulations making buildings comfortable to live and work in without needing extra cooling devices installed. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="An old barn with solar panels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437779/original/file-20211215-13-mxk701.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437779/original/file-20211215-13-mxk701.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437779/original/file-20211215-13-mxk701.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437779/original/file-20211215-13-mxk701.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437779/original/file-20211215-13-mxk701.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=974&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437779/original/file-20211215-13-mxk701.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=974&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437779/original/file-20211215-13-mxk701.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=974&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Older buildings can be updated to increase their sustainability.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:-2020-06-09_Old_barn_with_solar_panels,_Metton,_Norfolk.JPG">Kolforn/Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These could include adding <a href="https://sciencing.com/pros-cons-solar-film-home-windows-22817.html">sun protection</a> to windows and reflective materials to the outside of buildings to stop heat accumulating inside, or creating <a href="https://www.solarcrest.co.uk/downloads/EST_ventilation_best_practice.pdf">efficient ventilation systems</a> that allow wind to naturally flow through buildings, removing extra heat and pollutants.</p>
<p>It’s not hard to make buildings significantly cooler with comparatively little effort. In one <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378778808001084">example</a>, just adding ceiling fans to a building with air conditioning installed allowed air conditioning to comfortably be dialed back 3°C, reducing that building’s energy consumption by more than 21%. If some people are still warm, they could use devices like <a href="https://www.aquonchair.com/">cooling chairs</a>.</p>
<p>Once the need for cooling has been reduced as much as possible, actual cooling should be achieved with the most efficient technologies. Since cooling systems (like fans) usually run on electricity – unlike current heating systems, which are mainly based on <a href="https://www.boilerguide.co.uk/articles/central-heating-systems">gas</a> – there is a huge opportunity to make cooling sustainable by fuelling it with renewable energy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three ways to reduce cooling impacts" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437791/original/file-20211215-17-1bpvwbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437791/original/file-20211215-17-1bpvwbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437791/original/file-20211215-17-1bpvwbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437791/original/file-20211215-17-1bpvwbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437791/original/file-20211215-17-1bpvwbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437791/original/file-20211215-17-1bpvwbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437791/original/file-20211215-17-1bpvwbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We’ve identified three main ways to reduce the environmental impact of UK cooling demand.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This could either be done by making energy on site, like by using roof-mounted <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-panels-on-half-the-worlds-roofs-could-meet-its-entire-electricity-demand-new-research-169302">solar panels</a>, or by making sure that energy used to cool buildings is being sourced as sustainably as possible. Buildings can be <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/7/20754430/renewable-energy-clean-electricity-grid-load-flexibility">synced up</a> with peaks in local renewable generation – when electricity demand is low and renewable power availability high – to make cooling even greener. </p>
<p>Finally, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fluorinated-gas-f-gas-guidance-for-users-producers-and-traders">fluorinated gases</a> (F-gases) in air-conditioning units should not just be reduced or limited, as is proposed in the heat and buildings strategy, but phased out and highly penalised to force the transition to alternative clean gases. </p>
<p>F-gases can leak from units and quickly exacerbate global warming up to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/fluorinated-gases-f-gases">22,800 times</a> more than the same amount of carbon dioxide in the short term. <a href="https://cooltechnologies.org/pathway-to-net-zero/">Net zero units</a> that use sustainable <a href="https://www.space-engineering.co.uk/sustainable-refrigeration/">natural refrigerant</a> gases, such as those based on propane, ammonia or isobutane, should take centre stage in the cooling market.</p>
<p>We have a limited window to address the future of cooling before rising temperatures push up our cooling emissions and hamper progress towards net zero targets. The future of cooling must become a present-day priority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172080/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jesus Lizana does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. His research receives funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. He has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Radhika Khosla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the UK warms, the government needs to pay more attention to sustainably and efficiently cooling buildings.Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor, Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, University of OxfordJesus Lizana, Fellow in Energy and Power, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1706732021-10-27T15:31:13Z2021-10-27T15:31:13ZCities and climate change: why low-rise buildings are the future – not skyscrapers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428805/original/file-20211027-13-omqzje.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C2444%2C1685&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Paris is an example of a densely built low-rise city.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/editor/image/panoramic-aerial-view-paris-eiffel-tower-1557480866">DaLiu/Shutterestock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than <a href="https://population.un.org/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2018-Highlights.pdf">half of the world’s 7.8 billion people</a> live in cities and urban areas. By 2050, an additional <a href="https://population.un.org/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2018-Highlights.pdf">2.5 billion</a> will be living there. As that figure continues to climb and ever more people flock to metropolitan areas in the hope of a better life, the big question is: how do we fit everyone in?</p>
<p>It is the job of city developers and urban planners to figure out how to build or adapt urban environments to accommodate the living and working needs of this rapidly expanding population. There is a popular belief that taller, more densely packed skyscrapers are the way forward, because they optimise the use of space and house more people per square metre and limit urban sprawl. </p>
<p>But given the global commitments to <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">emissions-reduction targets</a> and mitigating climate change, is this the most sustainable solution from a carbon-reduction perspective?</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00034-w">recent study</a>, which examined whether building denser and taller is the right path to sustainability, busts this myth: we found that densely built, low-rise environments are more space and carbon efficient, while high-rise buildings have a drastically higher carbon impact.</p>
<h2>Impact on the environment</h2>
<p>We assessed the <a href="https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/media/news/whole-life-carbon-assessment-for-the--built-environment-november-2017.pdf">whole-life cycle of carbon emissions</a> – meaning both operational and “embodied” carbon – of different buildings and urban environments. Operational carbon is generated while a building is in service. Embodied carbon is all the hidden, behind-the-scenes carbon produced during the extraction, production, transport and manufacture of raw materials used to construct a building, plus any produced during maintenance, refurbishment, demolition or replacement.</p>
<p>This aspect is often overlooked, especially in building design, where operational efficiency is always to the fore. The argument for cutting carbon at the design stage has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114107">made by numerous researchers</a>, and it is gaining traction with leading international organisations such as the <a href="https://worldgbc.org/news-media/commitment-includes-embodied-carbon">World Green Building Council</a>. But it’s still something that is largely disregarded, mainly because embodied impact assessment is voluntary, and there is no legislation concerning its inclusion. But it must be advocated for if we are to reach our <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">2050 emissions targets</a>.</p>
<p>At a global scale, the construction sector is responsible for a significant impact on the environment, as is clear from the graph below. The largest contribution comes from its consumption of energy and resources, which boils down to the design stage – the part of the process that no one is looking at. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph showing construction sector's contribution to environmental impacts." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428607/original/file-20211026-19-jkae8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428607/original/file-20211026-19-jkae8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428607/original/file-20211026-19-jkae8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428607/original/file-20211026-19-jkae8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428607/original/file-20211026-19-jkae8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428607/original/file-20211026-19-jkae8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428607/original/file-20211026-19-jkae8r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Construction sector’s contribution to environmental impacts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Edinburgh Napier University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now that new buildings have to be more energy efficient and the energy grid is being decarbonised, this hidden embodied energy varies from <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778817325835">11%-33%</a> for projects such as <a href="https://passivehouse.com/02_informations/01_whatisapassivehouse/01_whatisapassivehouse.htm">Passive House designs</a> (a building standard that uses non-mechanical heating and cooling design techniques to lower energy use) to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778817325835">74%-100%</a> for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobe.2018.10.019">near-zero energy builds</a> (high performance buildings where the low amount of energy required comes mostly from renewable sources).</p>
<p>Given the focus on driving down the energy impact of day-to-day operations, the proportional share of embodied energy consumption has been driven up. So as energy demand becomes lower when the building is in use, the materials and activities required to build it in first place produce proportionally more impacts across the building’s lifespan. For example, low and near-zero energy buildings are made by improving insulation and using more materials and additional technologies, which greatly increases the hidden energy impact and carbon cost.</p>
<p>Moving to a smaller scale, the embodied carbon share across construction materials shows that minerals have the largest proportion by far, at <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778810003154">45%</a>. The graph below shows the breakdown of materials, where concrete dominates in terms of hidden carbon contribution. This is important because skyscrapers rely heavily on concrete as a structural material. So the type of materials we use, how much we use, and how we use them is crucial.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph showing the carbon contribution of different minerals used in construction." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428775/original/file-20211027-17-x8asgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428775/original/file-20211027-17-x8asgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428775/original/file-20211027-17-x8asgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428775/original/file-20211027-17-x8asgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428775/original/file-20211027-17-x8asgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428775/original/file-20211027-17-x8asgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428775/original/file-20211027-17-x8asgs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The carbon contribution of different minerals used in construction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Edinburgh Napier University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How we can fix it</h2>
<p>We developed four different urban scenarios shown in the graph below, based on data from real buildings: high-density, high-rise (HDHR) which are tall and close together; low-density, high-rise (LDHR) which are tall but more spread out; high-density, low-rise (HDLR) which are low and close together; and low-density, low-rise (LDLR) which are low level and more spaced out.</p>
<p>To do this, we split the building stock into five main categories: non-domestic low-rise (NDLR); non-domestic high-rise (NDHR); domestic low-rise (DLR); domestic high-rise (DHR); and terraced/house. We gathered numerous data, including height, number of storeys, building footprint (the land area the building physically occupies), facade material and neighbouring constraints. This includes the number and area of blocks and green spaces within one square kilometre, average street width and average distance between buildings. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428609/original/file-20211026-15-4cw1gg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graphic showing four different urban environments contained in the research study." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428609/original/file-20211026-15-4cw1gg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428609/original/file-20211026-15-4cw1gg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428609/original/file-20211026-15-4cw1gg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428609/original/file-20211026-15-4cw1gg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428609/original/file-20211026-15-4cw1gg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428609/original/file-20211026-15-4cw1gg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428609/original/file-20211026-15-4cw1gg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Four urban scenarios analysed in the study.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Edinburgh Napier University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These parameters were all fed into a computer model to analyse the data looking at the following:</p>
<p><strong>1.</strong> How whole life-cycle carbon changed based on the buildings and the number of people accommodated within an area of 1km².</p>
<p><strong>2.</strong> How whole life-cycle carbon changed due to an increasing population based on four fixed population sizes – 20, 30, 40 and 50 thousand people – and the land use required to accommodate them under the four different urban scenarios.</p>
<p>Our findings show that high-density low-rise cities, such as Paris, are more environmentally friendly than high-density high-rise cities, such as New York. Looking at the fixed population scenarios, when moving from a high-density low-rise to a high-density high-rise urban environment, the average increase in whole life-cycle carbon emissions is 142%.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428796/original/file-20211027-14984-ps78if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A panorama of New York's iconic skyscrapers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428796/original/file-20211027-14984-ps78if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428796/original/file-20211027-14984-ps78if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428796/original/file-20211027-14984-ps78if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428796/original/file-20211027-14984-ps78if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428796/original/file-20211027-14984-ps78if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428796/original/file-20211027-14984-ps78if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428796/original/file-20211027-14984-ps78if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New York’s densely packed skyscrapers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/new-york-usa-skyline-762344239">Sean Pavone/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Equating this to the potential savings per person, based on the fixed population size, building high-density low-rise offers a saving of 365 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per person compared with high-density high-rise.</p>
<p>It’s time for urban planners to start embedding this new understanding of the whole carbon life-cycle of a building, balancing the impact of urban density and height while accommodating expanding populations. To achieve urban sustainability the world will need more Parises and fewer Manhattans.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170673/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesco Pomponi receives funding from the EPSRC, the Royal Academy of Engineering, and Innovate UK. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Saint does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research has found that low-rise urban environments are more space and carbon efficient than high-rise buildings which have a drastically higher carbon impact.Ruth Saint, Postdoctoral research fellow, Edinburgh Napier UniversityFrancesco Pomponi, Associate Professor of Sustainability Science, Edinburgh Napier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1671902021-09-14T03:59:11Z2021-09-14T03:59:11ZClimate explained: how much of the world’s energy comes from fossil fuels and could we replace it all with renewables?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420923/original/file-20210913-18-1cy14vq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=34%2C52%2C5786%2C3272&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Tsetso Photo</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate explained</a></strong> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.</em> </p>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to <a href="mailto:climate.change@stuff.co.nz">climate.change@stuff.co.nz</a></em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>How are fossil fuels formed, why do they release carbon dioxide and how much of the world’s energy do they provide? And what are the renewable energy sources that could replace fossil fuels?</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Fossil fuels were formed over millions of years from the remains of plants and animals trapped in sediments and then transformed by heat and pressure. </p>
<p>Most <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/114/43/11333">coal was formed</a> in the Carboniferous Period (360–300 million years ago), an age of amphibians and vast swampy forests. Fossilisation of trees moved enormous amounts of carbon from the air to underground, leading to a decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels — enough to bring the Earth close to a completely <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/114/43/11333">frozen state</a>. </p>
<p>This change in the climate, combined with the evolution of fungi that could digest dead wood and release its carbon back into the air, brought the coal-forming period to an <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mushroom-evolution-breaks-down-lignin-slows-coal-formation/">end</a>.</p>
<p>Oil and natural gas (methane, CH₄) were formed similarly, not from trees but from ocean plankton, and over a longer period. New Zealand’s Maui oil field is relatively <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00288306.1977.10431594">young</a>, dating from the Eocene, some 50 million years ago.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-carbon-dioxide-has-such-outsized-influence-on-earths-climate-123064">Climate explained: why carbon dioxide has such outsized influence on Earth's climate</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Burning buried sunshine</h2>
<p>When fossil fuels are burnt, their carbon reacts with oxygen to form carbon dioxide. The <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1023/A:1026391317686.pdf">energy originally provided by the Sun</a>, stored in chemical bonds for millions of years, is released and the carbon returns to the air. A simple example is the burning of natural gas: one molecule of methane and two of oxygen combine to produce carbon dioxide and water. </p>
<p><strong>CH₄ + 2 O₂ → CO₂ + 2 H₂O</strong></p>
<p>Burning a kilogram of natural gas releases 15kWh of energy in the form of infrared radiation (radiant heat). This is a sizeable amount.</p>
<p>To stop continuously worsening climate change, we need to stop burning fossil fuels for energy. That’s a tall order, because <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy">fossil fuels provide 84%</a> of all the energy used by human civilisation. (New Zealand is less reliant on fossil fuels, at <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy">65%</a>.) </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Wind turbines on farm land in New Zealand" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420929/original/file-20210913-16-btb6ov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420929/original/file-20210913-16-btb6ov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420929/original/file-20210913-16-btb6ov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420929/original/file-20210913-16-btb6ov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420929/original/file-20210913-16-btb6ov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420929/original/file-20210913-16-btb6ov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420929/original/file-20210913-16-btb6ov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wind energy is one of the renewable sources with the capacity to scale up.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/YIUCHEUNG</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are many possible sources of renewable or low-carbon energy: nuclear, hydropower, wind, solar, geothermal, biomass (burning plants for energy) and biofuel (making liquid or gaseous fuels out of plants). A handful of tidal power stations are in operation, and experiments are under way with wave and ocean current generation. </p>
<p>But, among these, the only two with the capacity to scale up to the staggering amount of energy we use are wind and solar. Despite impressive growth (doubling in less than five years), wind provides only <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy">2.2%</a> of all energy, and solar <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy">1.1%</a>.</p>
<h2>The renewables transition</h2>
<p>One saving grace, which suggests a complete transformation to renewable energy may be possible, is that a lot of the energy from fossil fuels is wasted. </p>
<p>First, extraction, refining and transport of fossil fuels <a href="https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CountriesWWS.pdf">accounts for 12%</a> of all energy use. Second, fossil fuels are often burnt in very inefficient ways, for example in internal combustion engines in cars. A world based on renewable energy would need <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920316639">half as much</a> energy in the first place. </p>
<p>The potential solar and wind resource is enormous, and costs have fallen rapidly. Some have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920316639">argued</a> we could transition to fully renewable energy, including transmission lines and energy storage as well as fully synthetic liquid fuels, by 2050. </p>
<p>One <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920316639">scenario</a> sees New Zealand building 20GW of solar and 9GW of wind power. That’s not unreasonable — Australia has <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Australia">built that much</a> in five years. We should hurry. Renewable power plants take time to build and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjIVUzyhiXU">industries</a> take time to scale up.</p>
<h2>Other factors to consider</h2>
<p>Switching to renewable energy solves the problems of fuel and climate change, but not those of escalating resource use. Building a whole new energy system takes a lot of material, some of it rare and difficult to extract. Unlike burnt fuel, metal can be recycled, but that won’t help while building a new system for the first time.</p>
<p>Research <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/8/1/29">concluded</a> that although some metals are scarce (particularly cobalt, cadmium, nickel, gold and silver), “a fully renewable energy system is unlikely to deplete metal reserves and resources up to 2050”. There are also opportunities to substitute more common materials, at some loss of efficiency. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Engineers working on a wind turbine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420932/original/file-20210913-15-1nl7isd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420932/original/file-20210913-15-1nl7isd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420932/original/file-20210913-15-1nl7isd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420932/original/file-20210913-15-1nl7isd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420932/original/file-20210913-15-1nl7isd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420932/original/file-20210913-15-1nl7isd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420932/original/file-20210913-15-1nl7isd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Building a new system will require energy and resources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Jacques Tarnero</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But many metals are highly <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html">localised</a>. Half the world’s cobalt reserves are in the Democratic Republic of Congo, half the lithium is in Chile, and 70% of rare earths, used in wind turbines and electric motors, are in China.</p>
<p>Wasteful consumption is another issue. New technologies (robots, drones, internet) and economic growth lead to increased use of energy and resources. Rich people use a disproportionate amount of energy and model excessive consumption and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/26161726.pdf">waste</a> others aspire to, including the emerging rich in developing countries. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-can-save-the-natural-world-but-if-were-not-careful-it-will-also-hurt-it-145166">Renewable energy can save the natural world – but if we're not careful, it will also hurt it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Research analysing household-level emissions across European countries <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/unequal-distribution-of-household-carbon-footprints-in-europe-and-its-link-to-sustainability/F1ED4F705AF1C6C1FCAD477398353DC2">found</a> the top 1% of the population with the highest carbon footprints produced 55 tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions each, compared to a European median of 10 tonnes. </p>
<p>Scientists have warned about consumption by the affluent and there is <a href="https://www.hb.fh-muenster.de/opus4/frontdoor/deliver/index/docId/10643/file/Fuchs_et_al._2016.pdf">vigorous</a> <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16941-y">debate</a> about how to reduce it while preserving a stable society.</p>
<p>One way of turning these questions around is to start from the bottom and ask: what is the minimum energy required for basic human needs? </p>
<p>One <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020307512">study</a> considered “decent living” to include comfortable housing, enough food and water, 10,000km of travel a year, education, healthcare and telecommunications for everyone on Earth — clearly not something we have managed to achieve so far. It found this would need about 4,000kWh of energy per person per year, less than a tenth of what New Zealanders currently use, and an amount easily supplied by renewable energy.</p>
<p>All that carbon under the ground was energy ripe for the picking. We picked it. But now it is time to stop.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167190/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The way we use fossil fuels is wasteful and inefficient. A world based on renewable energy would need half as much as we produce now.Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1634092021-07-12T15:14:02Z2021-07-12T15:14:02ZBitcoin alternatives could provide a green solution to energy-guzzling cryptocurrencies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410791/original/file-20210712-15-1kq5y30.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C5964%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cryptocurrency-altcoins-gold-nuggets-investment-store-1968412978">24K-Production/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The cryptocurrency bitcoin now uses up more electricity a year than the whole of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-56012952">Argentina</a>, according to <a href="https://cbeci.org/cbeci/comparisons/">recent estimates</a> from the University of Cambridge. That’s because the creation of a bitcoin, in a process called <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/tech/how-does-bitcoin-mining-work/">mining</a>, is achieved by powerful computers that work night and day to decode and solve complex mathematical problems. </p>
<p>The energy these computers consume is unusually high. Police in the UK recently raided what they believed to be an extensive indoor marijuana-growing operation, only to discover that the huge electricity usage that had aroused their suspicions was actually coming from a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/28/bitcoin-mine-discovered-by-uk-police-on-cannabis-farm-raid-.html">bitcoin-mining setup</a>.</p>
<p>Thousands of similar setups, around 70% of which are currently based <a href="https://theconversation.com/bitcoin-chinas-crackdown-isnt-enough-only-a-global-effort-can-stop-cryptos-monstrous-energy-demand-161776">in China</a>, continue to demand more and more energy to mine bitcoins. This has understandably prompted environmental concerns, with Elon Musk <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1392602041025843203?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1392602041025843203%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.entrepreneur.com%2Farticle%2F372848">tweeting</a> in May 2021 that Tesla would no longer accept <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/elon-musk-rattles-bitcoin-but-it-may-just-be-green-marketing-51620934886">bitcoin</a> as payment for its vehicles on account of its poor green credentials. </p>
<p>But there are thousands of other forms of cryptocurrency, collectively termed “<a href="https://cryptopotato.com/altcoins-the-complete-guide/">altcoins</a>”, which are far greener than bitcoin – and to which investors are <a href="https://investorplace.com/2021/05/green-coins-5-of-the-most-eco-friendly-cryptos-elon-musk-should-consider-now/">now turning</a>. Many of them are attempting to use less environmentally damaging technology to produce each coin, which may ultimately herald a greener future for cryptocurrencies.</p>
<h2>Altcoins</h2>
<p>Of the thousands of “altcoins” in the market, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethereum-what-is-it-and-why-has-the-price-gone-parabolic-153733">ethereum</a>, <a href="https://coinswitch.co/info/solarcoin/what-is-solarcoin">solarcoin</a>, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/cardano-crypto-bitcoin-elon-musk-b1849021.html">cardano</a>, and <a href="https://decrypt.co/10763/litecoin-rises-nearly-13-as-cryptocurrency-markets-turn-green">litecoin</a> have shown promising potential as greener alternatives to bitcoin. Let us take the example of litecoin as an example of how they’re doing it. </p>
<p>Litecoins are very similar to bitcoins, except that they reportedly only require <a href="https://beincrypto.com/learn/litecoin-mining/">a quarter</a> of the time to produce. Where sophisticated and powerful hardware with a colossal energy demand is needed to mine bitcoins, litecoins <a href="https://coincentral.com/litecoin-mining-vs-bitcoin-mining/">can be mined</a> with standard computer hardware which requires far less electricity to run.</p>
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<p>Other alternatives, such as solarcoin, aim to encourage real-world green behaviours. One solarcoin is allocated for <a href="https://www.enterprisetimes.co.uk/2017/07/10/solarcoin-blockchain/">every megawatt hour</a> that’s generated from solar technology, rewarding those who’ve invested in renewable energy.</p>
<p>Different cryptocurrencies also use different processes to complete transactions. Bitcoin uses what’s called a “<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/proof-work.asp">proof-of-work</a>” protocol to validate transactions, which requires a network of miners to compete to solve mathematical problems (the “work”). The winner – and the person who mints a new bitcoin – is usually the competitor with the most computing power. </p>
<p>While proof-of-work is credited for being relatively secure, making it difficult and costly to attack and destabilise, it’s incredibly power-hungry. The way it forces bitcoin miners to compete with an ever-expanding arsenal of high-tech computers means it has inevitably come to demand more and more electrical power.</p>
<p>But there are alternatives to this form of mining. <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethereum-what-is-it-and-why-has-the-price-gone-parabolic-153733">Ethereum</a>, which is the world’s second largest cryptocurrency behind bitcoin, now uses a different protocol, called “<a href="https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/consensus-mechanisms/pos/">proof-of-stake</a>”. This protocol was specifically designed to address environmental concerns about the proof-of-work system, and it does this by eliminating competition between miners. Without the competition, there’s no computing power arms race for miners to participate in. </p>
<p>Given the increasing environmental scrutiny that cryptocurrency is now facing, it’s likely that any new altcoins will adopt ethereum’s system over bitcoin’s. Investors will likewise look to the green credentials of altcoins when deciding which cryptocurrency they’ll convert their bitcoin into.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A cryptocurrency exchange screen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410795/original/file-20210712-17-ogao88.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410795/original/file-20210712-17-ogao88.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410795/original/file-20210712-17-ogao88.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410795/original/file-20210712-17-ogao88.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410795/original/file-20210712-17-ogao88.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410795/original/file-20210712-17-ogao88.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410795/original/file-20210712-17-ogao88.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bitcoin can be traded for any of the thousands of altcoins in the cryptocurrency market.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/cryptocurrency-exchange-rate-panel-3d-render-795136543">lucadp/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Still the future of finance?</h2>
<p>Despite the criticisms levelled against bitcoin for its shocking energy inefficiencies, the traditional financial system is far from green itself. </p>
<p>In the five years since the Paris Agreement on climate change, for instance, it’s reported that 60 of the world’s biggest banks have provided <a href="https://www.ran.org/bankingonclimatechaos2021/">$3.8 trillion</a> (£2.7 trillion) to fossil fuel companies – not very planet-friendly. <a href="https://6fefcbb86e61af1b2fc4-c70d8ead6ced550b4d987d7c03fcdd1d.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/cms/reports/documents/000/005/741/original/CDP-Financial-Services-Disclosure-Report-2020.pdf?1619537981">One report</a> found that 49% of financial institutions don’t conduct any analysis of how their portfolio impacts the climate. </p>
<p>Then there’s the sector’s electricity use. Where cryptocurrencies have the potential to run without the oversight of large financial institutions, the banking sector is built upon a huge amount of infrastructure which naturally burns through a great deal of electricity. </p>
<p>Banks themselves use plenty of computers and servers, as well as thousands of air-conditioned offices and fuel-guzzling vehicles. It’s difficult to estimate exactly how much energy is required to support all this activity, but <a href="https://docsend.com/view/adwmdeeyfvqwecj2">one recent report</a> found that the banking system consumes more than twice the electricity that bitcoin does. </p>
<p>So while bitcoin is rightly getting a battering for its outrageous energy consumption, there’s ultimately a need for all our financial systems to be green and sustainable. Banks can do this by reconsidering their portfolios and working towards net zero carbon emissions. But cryptocurrencies offer a different path to greener finance – and the altcoins that concentrate on their environmental credentials may well clean up the technology’s reputation for excessive energy use.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163409/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some alternative cryptocurrencies, called ‘altcoins’, demand far less electrical power than bitcoin.Sankar Sivarajah, Head of School of Management and Professor of Technology Management and Circular Economy, University of BradfordKamran Mahroof, Assistant Professor, Supply Chain Analytics, University of BradfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1604322021-05-27T20:03:46Z2021-05-27T20:03:46ZThe idea of ‘green growth’ is flawed. We must find ways of using and wasting less energy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402739/original/file-20210525-23-1o6r1xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C233%2C5955%2C3754&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Cherdchai charasri</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As countries explore ways of decarbonising their economies, the mantra of “green growth” risks trapping us in a spiral of failures. Green growth is an <a href="https://www.openscience4sustainability.at/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/GAIA-2012_brand_green-economy.pdf">oxymoron</a>.</p>
<p>Growth requires more material extraction, which in turn requires more energy. The fundamental problem we face in trying to replace fossil energy with renewable energy is that all our renewable technologies are significantly <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Power-Density-Understanding-Energy-Sources/dp/0262529734">less energy dense</a> than fossil fuels. </p>
<p>This means much larger areas are required to produce the same amount of energy. </p>
<p>Earlier this year, <a href="https://ember-climate.org/project/eu-power-sector-2020/">data from the European Union</a> showed renewable electricity generation has overtaken coal and gas in 2020. But previous <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2011.0431">research</a> argued that to replace the total energy (not just electricity) use of the UK with the best available mix of wind, solar and hydroelectricity would require the entire landmass of the country. To do it for Singapore would <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2011.0431">require</a> the area of 60 Singapores.</p>
<p>I am not in any way denying or diminishing the need to stop emitting fossil carbon. But if we don’t focus on reducing consumption and energy waste, and instead fixate on replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, we are simply swapping one race to destruction with another.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-policy-that-relies-on-a-shift-to-electric-cars-risks-entrenching-existing-inequities-160856">Climate policy that relies on a shift to electric cars risks entrenching existing inequities</a>
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<hr>
<p>The carbon causing our climate problem today came from <a href="https://www.pearson.com/us/higher-education/program/Craig-Earth-Resources-and-the-Environment-4th-Edition/PGM156489.html">fossilised biology</a> formed through ancient carbon cycles, mostly over the 200 million years of the <a href="https://australian.museum/learn/dinosaurs/mesozoic-era/">Mesozoic era</a> (ending 66 million years ago). </p>
<p>We must stop burning fossil fuels, but we must also understand that every technology to replace them, while attempting to <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/61/1/19/303944">maintain our current consumption</a>, let alone allowing for consumption growth, requires <a href="https://phys.org/news/2019-10-techno-fix-futures-climate-chaosdont-hype.html">huge amounts of fossil energy</a>. </p>
<h2>Environmental impact of renewables</h2>
<p>Carbon reduction without consumption reduction is only possible through methods that have their own <a href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-11-12/dont-call-me-a-pessimist-on-climate-change-i-am-a-realist/">massive environmental impacts</a> and resource limitations.</p>
<p>To make renewable energy, fossil energy is needed to <a href="https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/16_2021.pdf">mine the raw materials</a>, to transport, to manufacture, to connect the energy capture systems and finally to produce the machines to <a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030703349">use the energy</a>. </p>
<p>The new renewable infrastructure requires <a href="https://theconversation.com/supplies-of-rare-earth-materials-are-still-far-from-secure-33156">rare earth minerals</a>, which is a problem in itself. But most of the raw materials required to produce and apply new energy technology are also <a href="https://www.academia.edu/36305486/Peak_Industrial_Output_and_the_Limits_to_Growth_as_a_Consequence_of_Depleting_Natural_Resources_The_permanent_divergence_of_the_real_economy_and_the_fiat_economy">getting harder to find</a>. The returns on mining them are reducing, and the dilemma of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513003856">declining returns</a> applies to the very fossil fuels needed to mine the declining metal ore.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/techno-fix-futures-will-only-accelerate-climate-chaos-dont-believe-the-hype-125678">Techno-fix futures will only accelerate climate chaos – don't believe the hype</a>
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<hr>
<p>Globally, despite building lots of renewable electricity infrastructure, we have not yet increased the <a href="https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/data/files/download-documents/chapter_4_renewable_energy.pdf">proportion of renewable energy</a> in our total energy consumption. </p>
<p>Electricity is only <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-statistics-2020">20% of our total energy use</a>. Renewable electricity has not displaced fossil energy in most countries because our <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-statistics-2020/final-consumption">consumption increases faster</a> than we can add renewable generation.</p>
<p>The problems with wanting to maintain industrial civilisation are many, but the starkest is that it is the actual cause of our climate crisis and <a href="https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries/planetary-boundaries/about-the-research/the-nine-planetary-boundaries.html">other environmental crises</a>. </p>
<p>If we carry on with life as usual — the underlying dream of the “green growth” concept — we will end up <a href="https://scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/sites/sw/files/Warning_article_with_supp_11-13-17.pdf">destroying the life-supporting capacity</a> of our planet.</p>
<h2>What happened to environmentalism?</h2>
<p>The green growth concept is part of a broader and long-running trend to co-opt the words green and environmentalist. </p>
<p>Environmentalism emerged from the 1960s as a movement to save the natural world. Now it seems to have been appropriated to describe the fight to save industrial civilisation — life as we know it.</p>
<p>This shift has serious implications because the two concepts — green growth and environmentalism — are inherently incompatible.</p>
<p>Traditionally, environmentalists included people like <a href="http://www.rachelcarson.org/SilentSpring.aspx">Rachel Carson</a>, whose 1962 book <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2011/sep/30/silent-spring-rachel-carson-review">Silent Spring</a> alerted Americans to the industrial poisons killing birds and insects and fouling drinking water, or environmental organisations like Greenpeace saving whales and baby seals. </p>
<p>In New Zealand, being green had its <a href="https://www.catherineknight.nz/beyondmanapouri">roots</a> in movements like the Save Manapouri campaign, which fought to save ancient native forests from <a href="https://www.nzgeo.com/stories/manapouri-damning-the-dam/">inundation</a> when a hydropower dam was built. Environmentalism had a clear focus on saving the living world.</p>
<p>Now environmentalism has been realigned to reducing carbon emissions, as if climate change was our only impending crisis. Parliamentary Greens seem set to want to reach net zero carbon by 2050 at any cost. </p>
<p>The word “net” allows champions of industry-friendly environmentalism to avoid considering the critical need to reduce our energy consumption.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368">Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap</a>
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<p>We must somehow drag ourselves away from our growth paradigm to tackle the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919310067">multiple crises</a> coming at us. Our only future is one where we consume less, do less, waste less and stop our obsession with accumulating. </p>
<p>If we keep trying to maintain our current growth trajectory, built on a one-off fossil bonanza, we will destroy the <a href="https://scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/">already stressed</a> life-supporting systems that sustain us. Protecting these and their essential biotic components is true environmentalism — not attempting to maintain our industrial way of life, just without carbon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160432/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Joy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There is no doubt we need to stop emitting fossil carbon. But if we fixate on replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy and don’t also reduce consumption and energy waste, we risk failure.Mike Joy, Senior Researcher; Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1512082021-01-26T18:52:43Z2021-01-26T18:52:43ZWe are the 1%: the wealth of many Australians puts them in an elite club wrecking the planet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380346/original/file-20210124-13-1vb2vqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C8688%2C5709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Among the many hard truths exposed by COVID-19 is the huge disparity between the world’s rich and poor. As economies went into freefall, the world’s billionaires <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/07/covid-19-crisis-boosts-the-fortunes-of-worlds-billionaires">increased</a> their already huge fortunes by 27.5%. And as many ordinary people lost their jobs and fell into poverty, The Guardian reported “the 1% are coping” by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-lifestyles-of-the-rich-and-famous-how-the-1-are-coping">taking private jets</a> to their luxury retreats.</p>
<p>Such perverse affluence further fuelled criticism of the so-called 1%, which has long been the standard <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/why-does-everybody-suddenly-hate-billionaires-because-theyve-made-it-easy/2019/03/13/00e39056-3f6a-11e9-a0d3-1210e58a94cf_story.html">rhetoric of the political Left</a>. </p>
<p>In 2011, Occupy Wall Street protesters called out growing economic inequality by <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2011/12/27/occupy-wall-street-we-are-the-99">proclaiming</a>: “We are the 99%!”. And an <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/carbon-emissions-richest-1-percent-more-double-emissions-poorest-half-humanity">Oxfam report</a> in September last year lamented how the richest 1% of the world’s population are responsible for more than twice as much carbon pollution as the poorest half of humanity.</p>
<p>But you might be surprised to find this 1% doesn’t just comprise the super-rich. It may include you, or people you know. And this fact has big implications for social justice and planetary survival.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People crossing the street in Sydney" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380388/original/file-20210125-19-hdvuk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380388/original/file-20210125-19-hdvuk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380388/original/file-20210125-19-hdvuk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380388/original/file-20210125-19-hdvuk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380388/original/file-20210125-19-hdvuk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380388/original/file-20210125-19-hdvuk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380388/original/file-20210125-19-hdvuk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many everyday Australians have a net worth that puts them in the world’s richest 1%.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Look in the mirror</h2>
<p>When you hear references to the 1%, you might think of billionaires such as Amazon’s <a href="https://mkorostoff.github.io/1-pixel-wealth/">Jeff Bezos</a> or Tesla founder <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55578403">Elon Musk</a>. However, as of October last year there were <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/08/asia-pacific-is-home-to-most-billionaires-globally-pandemic-grows-wealth.html">2,189 billionaires worldwide</a> — a minuscule proportion of the 7.8 billion people on Earth. So obviously, you don’t have to be a billionaire to join this global elite. </p>
<p>So how rich do you have to be? Well, Credit Suisse’s <a href="https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html">Global Wealth Report</a> in October last year showed an individual net worth of US$1 million (A$1,295,825) - combined income, investments and personal assets — will make you among the world’s 1% richest people. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-coronavirus-is-deepening-global-inequality-144621">Five ways coronavirus is deepening global inequality</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The latest official data shows the average Australian household has a <a href="https://mccrindle.com.au/insights/blog/australias-income-and-wealth-distribution/">net worth of A$1,022,200</a>. Australia’s richest 20% of households – about two million of them – have an <a href="https://mccrindle.com.au/insights/blog/australias-household-income-wealth-distribution/?pdf=953">average net worth of A$3.2 million</a>. Even if those households comprised two income-earning adults, their net worth equally divided would put many in the top 1% of global wealth holders.</p>
<p>A net wealth of US$109,430 (A$147,038) puts you among the world’s <a href="https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html">richest 10%</a>. Half of Australia’s households have a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-12/household-income-and-wealth-abs-data-shows-rich-are-richer/11302696">net worth of A$558,900</a> or more. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Aerial view of suburban Australian homes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380348/original/file-20210124-13-133suwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380348/original/file-20210124-13-133suwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380348/original/file-20210124-13-133suwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380348/original/file-20210124-13-133suwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380348/original/file-20210124-13-133suwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380348/original/file-20210124-13-133suwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380348/original/file-20210124-13-133suwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The net worth of many Australians puts them in the global elite.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does all this mean for the planet?</h2>
<p>It’s true the per capita emissions of the super-rich are likely to be far greater than others in the top 1%. But this doesn’t negate the uncomfortable fact Australians are among a fraction of the global population <a href="https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/richest-countries-in-the-world">monopolising global wealth</a>. This group causes the vast bulk of the world’s <a href="https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4562/shining_a_light_on_international_energy_inequality">climate damage</a>.</p>
<p>A 2020 Oxfam report shows the world’s richest 10% produce a staggering <a href="https://www.oxfam.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/bp-power-profits-pandemic-100920-en-embargoed.pdf">52% of total carbon emissions</a>. Consistent with this, a 2020 <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0579-8?proof=t">University of Leeds study</a> found richer households around the world tend to spend their extra money on energy-intensive products, such as package holidays and car fuel. The UN’s 2020 Emission Gap Report further <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/emissions-gap-report-2020">confirmed this</a>, finding the top 10% use around 75% of all aviation energy and 45% of all land transport energy.</p>
<p>It’s clear that wealth, and its consequent energy privilege, is neither socially just nor ecologically sustainable.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man with one shiny shoe and one scruffy shoe" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380372/original/file-20210125-21-1uki61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380372/original/file-20210125-21-1uki61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380372/original/file-20210125-21-1uki61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380372/original/file-20210125-21-1uki61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380372/original/file-20210125-21-1uki61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380372/original/file-20210125-21-1uki61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380372/original/file-20210125-21-1uki61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global wealth disparity is not just or sustainable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A potential solution</h2>
<p>Much attention and headlines are devoted to the <a href="https://www.oxfamamerica.org/explore/stories/billionaire-wealth-grows-by-25-billion-a-day-while-poorest-wealth-falls/">unethical wealth</a> of billionaires. And while the criticism is justified, it distracts from a broader wealth problem — including our own.</p>
<p>We should note here, one can have an income that’s large compared to the global average, and still experience significant <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/09_2015/data-highlight-no-1-2014-financial-hardship_0.pdf">economic hardship</a>. For instance in Australia, the housing costs of more than one million households exceed 30% of total income – the commonly used <a href="https://www.acoss.org.au/housing-homelessness/">benchmark</a> for housing affordability.</p>
<p>Here lies a central challenge. Even if we wanted to reduce our wealth, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-houses-earn-more-than-jobs-how-we-lost-control-of-australian-house-prices-and-how-to-get-it-back-144076">enormous cost</a> of keeping a roof over our head prevents us from doing so. Servicing a mortgage or paying rent is one of our <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/901-Housing-affordability.pdf">biggest financial obligations</a>, and a key driver in the pursuit of wealth.</p>
<p>But as we’ve shown above, as personal wealth grows, so too does environmental devastation. The rule even applies to the lowest paid, who are working just to pay the rent. The industries they rely on, such as <a href="https://www.citysmart.com.au/news/unsustainable-impacts-fast-fashion/">retail</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism-revealed-its-bigger-than-we-thought-96200">tourism</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2014/jul/25/greenwashing-hospitality-industry-water-conservation-technology-hotels">hospitality</a>, are themselves associated with environmental damage. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-shows-housing-costs-leave-many-insecure-tackling-that-can-help-solve-an-even-bigger-crisis-137772">Coronavirus shows housing costs leave many insecure. Tackling that can help solve an even bigger crisis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.ppesydney.net/content/uploads/2021/01/19_Baumann-Alexander-and-Burdon.pdf">Existing economic and social structures</a> mean stepping off this wealth-creating treadmill is almost impossible. However as we’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/access-to-land-is-a-barrier-to-simpler-sustainable-living-public-housing-could-offer-a-way-forward-121246">written before</a>, people can be liberated from their reliance on economic growth when land - the very foundation of our security - is not commodified.</p>
<p>For social justice and ecological survival, we must urgently experiment with <a href="https://theecologist.org/2020/mar/04/towards-walden-wage">new land and housing strategies</a>, to make possible a lifestyle of reduced wealth and consumption and increased self-sufficiency. </p>
<p>This might include urban commons, such as the R-Urban project in Paris, where several hundred people co-manage land that includes a small farm for collective use, a recycling plant and cooperative eco-housing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333571/original/file-20200508-49579-4dc69m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333571/original/file-20200508-49579-4dc69m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333571/original/file-20200508-49579-4dc69m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333571/original/file-20200508-49579-4dc69m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333571/original/file-20200508-49579-4dc69m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333571/original/file-20200508-49579-4dc69m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333571/original/file-20200508-49579-4dc69m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The R-Urban project in Paris, which includes a small farm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Under a new land strategy, other ways of conserving resources could be deployed. One such example, developed by Australian academic <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-simple-life-manifesto-and-how-it-could-save-us-33081">Ted Trainer</a>, involves cutting our earnings sharply - with paid work for only two days in a week. For the rest of the working week, we would tend to community food gardens, network and share many things we currently consume individually.</p>
<p>Such a way of living could help us re-evaluate the amount of wealth we need to live well.</p>
<p>The social and ecological challenges the world faces cannot be exaggerated. New thinking and creativity is needed. And the first step in this journey is taking an honest look at whether our own wealth and consumption habits are contributing to the problem.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-simple-life-manifesto-and-how-it-could-save-us-33081">The 'simple life' manifesto and how it could save us</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p><em>Clarification: this article has been updated to state that, for Australia’s richest 20% of households, the average net worth of two income-earning adults would put many in the top 1% of global wealth holders.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Baumann is affiliated with the NTW project (<a href="http://www.ntwonline.weebly.com">www.ntwonline.weebly.com</a> | <a href="http://www.facebook.com/land4all">www.facebook.com/land4all</a>). This project is working on a reframing of public housing policy settings – to provide an example of of the sort of local collaborative development on public land related to the final link in this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel Alexander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You might be surprised to find yourself in the company of Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos in the world’s richest 1%. This has big implications for planetary survival.Alex Baumann, Casual Academic, School of Social Sciences & Psychology, Western Sydney UniversitySamuel Alexander, Research fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1468962020-10-05T16:28:24Z2020-10-05T16:28:24ZHow 10 billion people could live well by 2050 – using as much energy as we did 60 years ago<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361697/original/file-20201005-22-ps0w46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=592%2C260%2C4895%2C5110&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/colorful-people-silhouettes-crowd-seamless-pattern-551935852">Lars Poyansky/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>Forced contraception in exchange for aid is the solution. </p>
<p>The problem is that there are too many of us. </p>
<p>COVID-19 is nature’s way of dealing with the situation. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>These comments are among the most popular responses recently published in the Sun in response to <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12587629/sir-david-attenborough-humanity-at-crossroads-climate-crisis/">an article</a> by the broadcaster David Attenborough on the climate crisis. But don’t be fooled into thinking the same scapegoating can’t be found below the line in a more progressive newspaper such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/26/panic-overpopulation-climate-crisis-consumption-environment#comment-143264643">the Guardian</a> – even if the racism is less explicit.</p>
<p>A larger population does make it harder to <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-food-system-is-at-risk-of-crossing-environmental-limits-heres-how-to-ease-the-pressure-104715">treat the environment</a> in the right way. But there’s no quick fix, as even the most conservative projections suggest a global population of <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/114/46/12103">over 8 billion</a> by 2050.</p>
<p>Fortunately, in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020307512">new research</a> we found that using 60% less energy than today, decent living standards could be provided to a global population of 10 billion by 2050. That’s 75% less energy than the world is currently forecast to consume by 2050 on our <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-model/stated-policies-scenario#abstract">present trajectory</a> – or as much energy as the world used <a href="https://inews.co.uk/opinion/global-energy-consumption-1960s-levels-671871">in the 1960s</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graph showing global energy consumption and sources from 1900 to 2020." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361650/original/file-20201005-16-1tr4fbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361650/original/file-20201005-16-1tr4fbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361650/original/file-20201005-16-1tr4fbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361650/original/file-20201005-16-1tr4fbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361650/original/file-20201005-16-1tr4fbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361650/original/file-20201005-16-1tr4fbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361650/original/file-20201005-16-1tr4fbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://vaclavsmil.com/2016/12/14/energy-transitions-global-and-national-perspectives-second-expanded-and-updated-edition/%20;%20https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html">Our World in Data/Vaclav Smil (2017)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Global north countries like the US and Australia currently consume the most energy <a href="http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/156055/">per person</a>. But this could be slashed by 90%, while still guaranteeing decent living standards for all. And the remaining energy requirements could likely come from clean, renewable sources.</p>
<p>So, how might all this be possible?</p>
<h2>The good life</h2>
<p>Achieving such a world requires radical action on all fronts, including the mass rollout of the best technologies available: the most energy-efficient buildings, vehicles, appliances and lighting systems, along with the most advanced facilities to produce and recycle all the necessary materials. </p>
<p>It also requires drastically reducing how much energy and resources some people consume. There’s no longer room for second homes, second cars, 20 minute power showers in the second bathroom, biannual upgrades of electronic gadgets, new shoes for every season, or plates piled high with red meat seven nights a week. </p>
<p>We’d need to rein in the <a href="http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/162490/">excessive consumption</a> levels of the affluent to raise the living conditions of the 3.5 billion people living on <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.UMIC?locations=1W&name_desc=false">less than USD$5.50 a day</a>. In other words, we need to flatten global and national inequalities. In our study, we allowed for inequalities in energy consumption to persist only where need dictates. In especially cold or hot climates, more energy is needed for heating and cooling. In sparsely populated countries, people need to travel more to meet their needs.</p>
<p>But what do we mean by <a href="https://www.decentlivingenergy.org/">decent living</a>? The <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11205-017-1650-0">notion we use</a> is a far cry from that defined by consumer culture. But it’s a long way from anything resembling poverty. There’d be adequately sized housing that maintains a comfortable temperature year-round, with clean, running hot water. A washing machine, fridge-freezer, laptops and smartphones in every home. Enough hospitals and schools to guarantee universal access, and three times as much public transport per person as is currently provided in the world’s wealthier countries.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A view of Singapore's skyline with a mass rapid transit station in the foreground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361648/original/file-20201005-24-17yd8jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361648/original/file-20201005-24-17yd8jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361648/original/file-20201005-24-17yd8jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361648/original/file-20201005-24-17yd8jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361648/original/file-20201005-24-17yd8jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361648/original/file-20201005-24-17yd8jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361648/original/file-20201005-24-17yd8jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cut cars, expand public transport.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/singapore-mass-rapid-transit-station-eunos-133069655">JPL Designs/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Clearly, when people argue that environmentalists want a return to us all living in caves, this isn’t what they have in mind. That, or they’re imagining rather luxurious caves. The major reductions in consumption necessary don’t present barriers to anyone achieving a high standard of living. Solving the ecological crisis doesn’t have to be the attack on modern living that many fear.</p>
<p>But it does represent an attack on modern life in many other ways. This vision can’t be reconciled with a system that requires <a href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-05-21/a-green-new-deal-beyond-growth-ii-some-steps-forward/">permanent growth</a> in economic output to maintain employment levels, or one that incentivises shifting factories to places where rampant ecological destruction is inevitable and wages are barely sufficient for basic subsistence.</p>
<h2>The new world</h2>
<p>Ecological breakdown isn’t the only 21st-century challenge that capitalism seems ill-equipped to face. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2014/08/06/future-of-jobs/">Fears abound</a> that artificial intelligence and automation will bring mass unemployment, spiralling inequalities, even <a href="https://www.ynharari.com/book/homo-deus/">biological castes</a> of superhumans. A world of decent living standards using minimal energy requires flattening global inequalities. But these developments promise to push us precisely the other way.</p>
<p>Like it or not, change is coming. <a href="https://www.ynharari.com/book/21-lessons-book/">We may see</a> the entirety of Uber replaced by self-driving vehicles, and robotic factories producing an abundance of synthetic meat. Even large fractions of healthcare and legal work are likely to be outsourced to algorithms fed by torrents of globally sourced data. All this alongside a rapidly ageing population, requiring increasing amounts of care.</p>
<p>Can business as usual cope? In an increasingly automated future, no work means no wages – <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/fully-automated-luxury-communism-book-review/">who’ll then buy</a> all the stuff automated factories produce? It may seem unthinkable, but increasing economic activity enough to keep a world of 10 billion employed nine-to-five alongside all that automated production would mean the planet would almost certainly be toast.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/11/opinion/fully-automated-luxury-communism.html">new world</a> of intelligent machines doing much of the work, looming environmental limits and an increasing fraction of the population too old to work, wages and money may cease to make sense. We’ll need to totally rethink our systems of ownership and distribution.</p>
<p>And why not? The technologies underpinning automation are an outcome of hundreds of years of human ingenuity (and blind luck). Why should the benefits be captured by a minority of super-rich owners?</p>
<p><a href="https://neweconomics.org/2020/02/the-case-for-universal-basic-services">Universal basic services</a> – including the public provisioning of housing, healthcare, education and transport among other things – may be needed to meet the basic needs of everyone. This could provide the basis for decent living in a world with less work, allowing people the time to undertake all the unpaid care work required to support children, the mentally ill and, increasingly, the elderly.</p>
<p>We’re a long way from <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/fully-automated-luxury-communism-book-review/">utopian visions</a> of luxury for all, but providing decent living standards to all is already technologically possible. When the alternative is ecological catastrophe and social breakdown, aspiring to such a world seems not only desirable, but essential.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146896/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joel Millward-Hopkins receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p>Flattening inequality between and within countries could allow everyone a good standard of living within a liveable climate.Joel Millward-Hopkins, Postdoctoral Researcher in Sustainability, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1208832019-08-11T12:19:06Z2019-08-11T12:19:06Z5 ways to shift consumers towards sustainable behaviour<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287077/original/file-20190806-84199-1q2z2bh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=439%2C259%2C4623%2C3250&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Consumers want to embrace sustainability, but still need some guidance.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most people want to be sustainable, but have a hard time taking the necessary actions. </p>
<p>According to Nielsen, a data analytics company, sustainability is the latest consumer trend. Their research shows chocolate, coffee and bath products with sustainability claims <a href="https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/report/2018/whats-sustainability-got-to-do-with-it/">grew much faster than their traditional counterparts</a>. Yet only 0.2 per cent of chocolates and 0.4 per cent of coffees have environmental claims. </p>
<p>How can we translate this consumer sustainability buzz into actual action? To find out, our group reviewed 320 academic articles in the top consumer behaviour journals and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022242919825649?journalCode=jmxa">identified five routes to shift consumers towards sustainable choices</a>: social influence, habits, individual self, feelings and cognitions, and tangibility. Together, these make a handy acronym, SHIFT. </p>
<h2>Social influence</h2>
<p>Humans are social animals and will follow the actions of others, especially on ethical issues. When people learn they are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2014.11.002">using more energy than their neighbours</a>, they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2005.08.002">decrease their energy usage</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287073/original/file-20190806-84195-v5gvcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287073/original/file-20190806-84195-v5gvcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287073/original/file-20190806-84195-v5gvcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287073/original/file-20190806-84195-v5gvcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287073/original/file-20190806-84195-v5gvcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287073/original/file-20190806-84195-v5gvcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287073/original/file-20190806-84195-v5gvcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Insulating your home, sealing air leaks and turning the thermostat up in the summer and down in the winter can save energy and lower bills.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But what if the sustainable behaviour has yet to be established? For example, how does one convince people to install solar panels if no one in their neighbourhood is doing it? A “brand ambassador” can be invaluable. Solar advocates who had installed solar panels in their own homes were able to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0647-4">recruit 63 per cent more residents to purchase and install solar panels</a>. </p>
<p>For ethical behaviours, learning about the behaviours of others can be motivating. In one example, when business students on a college campus heard that computer science students were better at composting and recycling, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1509%2Fjmr.12.0335">they more than doubled their efforts</a>. </p>
<h2>Habits</h2>
<p>To build a new sustainable habit, one must first break bad habits. This is easiest when someone is experiencing big life changes, such as moving, getting married or starting a new job. In one study, people who had recently moved <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2007.10.005">cut their car usage almost in half</a>. </p>
<p>Another strategy is to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119241072.ch27">apply penalties for bad behaviour, rather than rewarding good behaviour</a>. There is a possibility, however, that people will return to their old ways if the penalty is removed and the new habit isn’t formed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287070/original/file-20190806-84249-1ttrbuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287070/original/file-20190806-84249-1ttrbuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287070/original/file-20190806-84249-1ttrbuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287070/original/file-20190806-84249-1ttrbuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287070/original/file-20190806-84249-1ttrbuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287070/original/file-20190806-84249-1ttrbuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287070/original/file-20190806-84249-1ttrbuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New shopping habits can reduce the amount of waste sent to landfill.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To build new habits, it can be helpful to make the sustainable action easy to do, provide timely prompts, offer incentives to help get the new behaviour started and provide real-time feedback about actions over an extended period of time. A review of feedback techniques finds when real-time energy use is shared directly with homeowners, <a href="https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/downloads/smart-metering-report.pdf">electricity consumption dropped by five to 15 per cent</a>. </p>
<h2>Individual self</h2>
<p>Sustainability can appear more attractive when the personal benefits such as health or product quality are highlighted. Emphasizing self-efficacy also works. When people know their actions matter, they make greener choices. </p>
<p>Self-consistency is also important. People like their words and actions to be consistent. Often one environmental commitment can snowball into other actions and changes over time. For example, someone who insulates their house to improve energy efficiency may be more likely to unplug electric devices when they leave for a vacation. </p>
<p>Likewise, consumers expect companies to be consistent. In one study, when a hotel made visible environmental efforts (such as offering compostable toiletries) and asked guests to save energy, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1509%2Fjmr.14.0441">guests reduced their energy usage by 12 per cent</a>. In the absence of visible efforts, the appeal appeared hypocritical and energy use increased. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-coffee-industry-is-about-to-get-roasted-by-climate-change-85054">How the coffee industry is about to get roasted by climate change</a>
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<p>There’s also self-concept to consider. People make choices that match their perception of who they are or who they want to be. One study found that environmentalism is sometimes perceived as being feminine, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jcr/ucw044">can turn away some men who subscribe to traditional gender roles</a>. Presenting environmentalism as a way to protect and preserve wilderness environments was attractive to both men and women, and closed the gender gap that is often seen in sustainability.</p>
<h2>Feelings and cognitions</h2>
<p>Sometimes we make decisions at the spur of the moment, based on how we feel at the time. And sometimes we make decisions after thoughtful deliberation. When communicating about sustainability, it is important to consider both the heart and the head. </p>
<p>Consumers seek out positive emotions such as happiness, pride and the warm glow that comes from doing good. If the sustainable option is fun, people will naturally want to do it. Conversely, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-013-1841-9">negative emotions such as fear and guilt</a> can be effective <a href="https://doi.org/10.1509%2Fjm.11.0454">when used subtly</a>. But an overly emotional, guilt-tripping message is a turn-off and will either be actively ignored or even induce the opposite behaviour (psychological reactance). </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/language-matters-when-the-earth-is-in-the-midst-of-a-climate-crisis-117796">Language matters when the Earth is in the midst of a climate crisis</a>
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<p>Providing consumers with the correct information and education is important, but it must be framed so that consumers care. Energy labels highlighting the watts used by different light bulbs have little effect on consumer purchases, but energy labels showing the 10-year cost <a href="http://www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/v44/acr_vol44_1021610.pdf">quadrupled energy-efficient purchases to 48 per cent from 12 per cent</a>. Thoughtfully designed eco-labels are a great way to communicate sustainability to consumers. </p>
<h2>Tangibility</h2>
<p>In general, <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/002205102320161311">people don’t care much about abstract, future consequences</a>. Therefore, it’s critical to make sustainability tangible. </p>
<p>One way is to communicate the local and proximate impacts of pro-environmental actions. For example, how are local animals, plants and people already being affected by climate change? </p>
<iframe frameborder="0" class="juxtapose" width="100%" height="395" src="https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=4fcbc35a-b850-11e9-b9b8-0edaf8f81e27"></iframe>
<p>Concrete examples also help. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.10.004">People are more moved by a photograph showing how far a single glacier has retreated in one year</a> than by a graph of glacier retreat around the world. </p>
<p>To match consumer timescales with environmental timescales, project consumers into the future. One study found that people who were asked to consider their legacy (“How will I be remembered?”), <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0956797614561266">donated 45 per cent more to a climate change charity</a>. </p>
<p>To make the SHIFT, use several strategies at once. For example, make the behaviour social and tangible. Test the approach in a small group and measure the results. If it doesn’t work, try something else until you find a winner and then scale up. </p>
<p>Working together, we can close the “green gap” and turn intentions into actions.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David J. Hardisty receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, as well as the Environmental Defense Fund. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine White receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Council (SSHRC) of Canada. An earlier version of the research was funded by Sitra, the Finnish Innovation Fund. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rishad Habib receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Council (SSHRC) of Canada and is on the advisory board of Better Eating International, a non-profit organization.</span></em></p>There’s a buzz around sustainability, but consumers still struggle to develop new habits. Here’s how to change that.David J. Hardisty, Assistant Professor of Marketing & Behavioral Science, University of British ColumbiaKatherine White, Professor of Marketing and Behavioural Science, University of British ColumbiaRishad Habib, PhD student, Sauder School of Business, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/993952018-07-19T21:17:42Z2018-07-19T21:17:42ZLinky: Do smart meters actually help reduce electricity consumption?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227771/original/file-20180716-44094-8se47o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C41%2C3970%2C2952&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">“No Linky” posters in Montreuil, near Paris. The first one reads "Linky: You can say no." The second reads "Linky spies on your private life." Some residents fear data surveillance rather than looking at possible advantages of smart meters. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carole Salères</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The roll-out of electricity smart-metering devices is well under way in the European Union: a recent official report indicates that most EU countries are on track to have 80% of households equipped by 2020 (<a href="http://ses.jrc.ec.europa.eu/smart-metering-deployment-european-union">European Commission, 2016</a>). Yet the roll-out is facing significant resistance in some countries, especially in France – the smart meter to be deployed in the French market, <a href="https://espace-client-particuliers.enedis.fr/web/espace-particuliers/compteur-linky">“Linky”</a>, is facing a widespread and persistent “anti-Linky” campaign.</p>
<p>In some towns and neighbourhoods, anti-Linky stickers are being distributed and slogans are tagged on walls. A national <a href="http://www.stoplinky88.fr/journee-nationale-du-5-mai-ou-pas">“Stop Linky” day</a> was announced for May 5, and a number of municipalities organised informational meetings, allegedly resulting in 500 recommending that residents <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2018/03/12/plus-de-500-municipalites-s-opposent-aux-compteurs-linky_5269690_3232.html">refuse to allow the smart meters to be installed</a>.</p>
<h2>Reasons for the resistance</h2>
<p>There are a number of reasons that households resist the installation of smart meters. Even if the devices are officially installed for free, consumers are fearful that expense will be reflected in future price increases. Indeed, a <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2018/02/07/linky-la-cour-des-comptes-denonce-le-cout-du-programme_5253148_3234.html">July 2018 report by the Cours des Comptes</a> (France’s public accounting office) criticised the smart-meter program, saying that it was likely to be more beneficial for the utility company, Enedis, than consumers.</p>
<p>Residents also have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/jun/24/smart-meters-spying-collecting-private-data-french-british">privacy concerns</a> – who will read their consumption data, and what will be done with it. Stories have also circulated about <a href="http://meudonsanslinky.canalblog.com/pages/les-hackers-adorent-le-linky-/33782708.html">hackers entering personal computers through smart meters</a>. There are also fears of <a href="https://www.quechoisir.org/actualite-compteurs-linky-dangereux-ou-pas-n8423">health dangers</a>, even if, ironically, smart meters emit the same amount of radiation as the previous generation of meters, and less than a number of <a href="https://www.anfr.fr/fileadmin/mediatheque/documents/expace/2016-05-30_Rapport_technique_compteur_vdef2.pdf">common household devices</a>.</p>
<p>There are thus valid concerns and reasons to reject smart meters. But in the end, households who resist these devices do so because they don’t see what it’s in it for them – the benefits all seem to be on the side of the utility companies or networks. Using smart-meter data, utilities will be able to better forecast demand and manage the electricity grid. Households are given no argument for the adoption of these devices, besides being promised better service.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227772/original/file-20180716-44094-1geefi0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227772/original/file-20180716-44094-1geefi0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227772/original/file-20180716-44094-1geefi0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227772/original/file-20180716-44094-1geefi0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227772/original/file-20180716-44094-1geefi0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227772/original/file-20180716-44094-1geefi0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227772/original/file-20180716-44094-1geefi0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Signs of resistance against Linky smart meters in Montreuil, a Paris suburb. The text reads: ‘Linky: It is completely legal for you to say no. After, it will be too late’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carole Salères.</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Real-time feedback about consumption</h2>
<p>In contrast, a main motivation for the European Union to <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/markets-and-consumers/smart-grids-and-meters">mandate the roll-out of these devices</a> appears to be potentially beneficial for households. By providing real-time feedback about electricity consumption, smart meters are supposed to help consumers reduce their electricity bills. Is this only wishful thinking or pure marketing, or can smart meters really help reduce electricity bills?</p>
<p>This is the question we sought to answer in an <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517302793?via%3Dihub">August 2017 research paper</a>.</p>
<p>In the late 1990s, the first studies looking at the impact of providing feedback on electrical consumption found huge effects: households receiving feedback cut down their consumption by as much as 15% (as reported in two literature reviews, <a href="http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/downloads/smart-metering-report.pdf">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartgrid.gov/files/ami_initiatives_aceee.pdf">here</a>.</p>
<p>Numbers in the range of 10% to 15% sounded too good to be true, and indeed probably were. These early studies shared some characteristics that likely inflated the benefits due to receiving feedback. First, they often relied on small volunteer samples or tech-savvy households – for example, employees of high-tech companies. Of course, when a household volunteers to receive feedback, the residents are more likely to want to reduce their electricity consumption than the average Joe-and-Jane household.</p>
<p>Second, these studies only observed the effects of receiving feedback on a short time frame (typically a few weeks). Of course, when people get the new device in their house, they use their new toy and reduce their consumption. But will they keep doing so once the excitement has faded?</p>
<h2>Long-term benefits</h2>
<p>To avoid these issues, our study looked at normal households who received smart meters from their electricity provider without asking for them. The electricity provider also provided extra service in the form of regular detailed feedback to these households. Such extra service is standard when introducing smart meters, <a href="https://espace-client-particuliers.enedis.fr/web/espace-particuliers/compteur-linky">including Linky</a>.</p>
<p>We also observed electricity consumption over 11 months to examine whether the effects, if any, persisted over time. In total, we studied about 900 households in the town of Linz (Austria) and observed their hour-by-hour electricity consumption. These households were all customers of the same electricity provider.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227773/original/file-20180716-44070-pllg8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227773/original/file-20180716-44070-pllg8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227773/original/file-20180716-44070-pllg8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227773/original/file-20180716-44070-pllg8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227773/original/file-20180716-44070-pllg8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227773/original/file-20180716-44070-pllg8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227773/original/file-20180716-44070-pllg8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anti-Linky posters in Montreuil, near Paris.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carole Salères.</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even after controlling for seasons, day of the week, time of day, and household characteristics (such as number of people in household, income, education) as well as house size and types of appliances owned, we observed a reduction in electricity consumption of 5% over the 11-month period. While this is not the 10% to 15% decrease reported by <a href="http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/downloads/smart-metering-report.pdf">earlier studies</a>, it’s still a solid reduction.</p>
<p>Our results also <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517302793?via%3Dihub">show</a> that the smart meters reduced both peak load (households’ peak in electricity consumption) and base load (periods of lowest consumption). The fact that both were affected suggests that feedback on energy consumption was likely to have prompted investments in more energy-efficient technologies (such as low-energy refrigerators or freezers) as well as to stable behaviour changes (such as switching off or reprogramming appliances).</p>
<p>It would be interesting to know whether the anti-Linky households in France would change their mind if they knew of these benefits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99395/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Corinne Faure a reçu des financements de la Commission Européenne. . </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joachim Schleich currently receives funding from the European Commission and several national ministries such as the German federal ministry of education and research. </span></em></p>A recent study suggests that smart meters can help households reduce their electricity use by as much as 5%. Are France’s anti-Linky households listening?Corinne Faure, Professor of Marketing, Grenoble École de Management (GEM)Joachim Schleich, Professor of Energy Economics, Grenoble École de Management (GEM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/951982018-04-27T10:43:46Z2018-04-27T10:43:46ZWe calculated how much money trees save for your city<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215984/original/file-20180423-94132-y5ighe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=165%2C0%2C4086%2C2142&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For a megacity, Tokyo is rich in trees.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gillyberlin/39726312995">gillyberlin/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/publications/files/wup2014-highlights.pdf">Megacities are on the rise</a>. There are currently 47 such areas around the globe, each housing more than 10 million residents. </p>
<p>More than half the global population now lives in urban areas, comprising about <a href="https://www.livescience.com/6893-cities-cover-earth-realized.html">3 percent of the Earth</a>. The ecological footprint of this growth is vast and there’s far more that can be done to improve life for urban residents around the world. </p>
<p>When it comes to natural spaces, trees are keystone species in the urban ecosystem, providing a number of services that benefit people. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03622-0">My research team has calculated</a> just how much a tree matters for many urban areas, particularly megacities. Trees clean the air and water, reduce stormwater floods, improve building energy use and mitigate climate change, among other things. </p>
<p>For every dollar invested in planting, cities <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/ucf/supporting_docs/UCF-Brief-Feb2018.pdf">see an average US$2.25 return</a> on their investment each year. </p>
<h2>Measuring trees</h2>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yz-Kh1gAAAAJ&hl=en">Our team</a>, led by Dr. David Nowak of the USDA Forest Service and Scott Maco of Davey Institute, develops the tree benefits software <a href="http://www.itreetools.org">i-Tree Tools</a>. </p>
<p>These tools simulate the relationship between trees and ecosystem services they provide. These services can include food, clean air and water, climate and flood control, pollination, recreation and noise damping. We currently don’t simulate many services, so our calculations actually underestimate the value of urban trees. </p>
<p>Our software can simulate how a tree’s structure – such as height, canopy size and leaf area – affects the services it provides. It can estimate how trees will reduce water flooding; or explore how trees will affect air quality, building energy use and air pollution levels in their community. It can also allow users to inventory trees in their own area.</p>
<p>Our systematic aerial surveys of 35 megacities suggest that 20 percent of the average megacity’s urban core is covered by forest canopy. But this can vary greatly. Trees cover just 1 percent of Lima, Peru, versus 36 percent in New York City. </p>
<p><iframe id="UNDLB" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UNDLB/7/" height="450px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We wanted to determine how much trees contribute to human well-being in the places where humans are most concentrated, and nature perhaps most distant. In addition, we wanted to calculate how many additional trees could be planted in each megacity to improve the quality of life.</p>
<h2>How tree density affects a city</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.07.016">We looked in detail at 10 megacities around the world</a>, including Beijing, Cairo, Mexico City, Los Angeles and London. These megacities are distributed across five continents and represent different natural habitats. <a href="http://www.naturalearthdata.com/downloads/10m-cultural-vectors/10m-urban-area/">Cairo was the smallest</a>, at 1173 square kilometers, while Tokyo measured in at a whopping 18,720. </p>
<p>For most cities, we looked at Google Maps aerial imagery, randomly selecting 500 points and classifying each as tree canopy, grass, shrub and so on. </p>
<p><iframe id="s5Lqg" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/s5Lqg/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We calculated that tree cover was linked to significant cost savings. Each square kilometer saved about $0.93 million in air pollution health care costs, $20,000 by capturing water runoff, and $478,000 in building energy heating and cooling savings.</p>
<p>What’s more, the median annual value of carbon dioxide sequestered by megacity tree cover was $7.9 million. That comes out to about $17,000 per square kilometer. The total CO2 stored was valued at $242 million, using a measure called <a href="https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climatechange/social-cost-carbon_.html">the social cost of carbon</a>.</p>
<p>The sum of all annual services provided by the megacity trees had a median annual value of $505 million. That provides a median value of $967,000 per square kilometer of tree cover.</p>
<p><iframe id="be6mJ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/be6mJ/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Trees in your city</h2>
<p>An entire urban forest can provide services for a good life.</p>
<p>All of the cities we studied had the potential to add additional trees, with about 18 percent of the metropolitan area on average available. Potential spots included areas with sidewalks, parking lots and plaza areas. The tree’s canopy could extend above the human-occupied area, with the trunk positioned to allow for pedestrian passage or parking. </p>
<p>Want to conserve forests and plant more trees in your area? Everyone can take action. City and regional planners can continue to incorporate the planning for urban forests. Those who are elected to office can continue to share a vision that the urban forest is an important part of the community, and they can advocate and support groups that are looking to increase it. </p>
<p>Individuals who cannot plant a tree might add a potted shrub, which is smaller than a tree but has a leafy canopy that can contribute similar benefits. For the property owner wanting to take charge, our i-Tree software can assist with selecting a tree type and location. A local arborist or urban forester could also help.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95198/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore Endreny works for ESF. He receives funding from the USDA Forest Service and NUCFAC. </span></em></p>In an increasingly urban world, trees can make a major difference. One study found that, for every dollar invested in planting, megacities saw a $2.50 return on their investment.Theodore Endreny, Professor of Water Resources & Ecological Engineering, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and ForestryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/669442016-10-24T08:21:02Z2016-10-24T08:21:02ZHow to reverse the dangerous decline in low-carbon innovation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142521/original/image-20161020-8828-15oeesq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=72%2C134%2C912%2C499&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bciccotelli/5582235986/in/photolist-9vhqh3-sg2T25-qZniPx-62LB1J-667YEk-nE9D5W-223ywm-5t5L5w-nWsPYq-agMffm-83A3A9-4R3Qnr-HYu7G-57PnPw-5LJ72q-57PojL-4XS2Lm-aNUZ8X-612ve4-9mf6P-tMzw-wK439-4Evdwx-CYMQE-4Rmdjo-2e48X8-3X5rTs-zaaX9-dqGrp-wu5dG-4kJ4km-4pnqx1-3bNFEK-aL9h2t-dNAYQ4-5DXTaX-8X8hi-5rFTuS-47cdVE-4x33j5-7y8s8T-dCRWyV-67raEh-aVHcxi-nPA5bv-4HCpLz-3bNGc4-Bi4Zf-Hf1cyd-7C8igp">Brett Ciccotelli/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-the-real-work-starts-now-52264">Paris Agreement goal</a> to limit global warming to less than 2°C at the end of the 21st century demands that we sharply reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, reaching <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers.pdf">near zero in less than 100 years</a>. Achieving this long-term decarbonisation while sustaining economic growth requires massive investment in innovation across existing and potential low-carbon technologies. So why is activity slowing down just when we need it most?</p>
<p>We can measure the pace and progress of low-carbon innovation by looking at global <a href="https://worldwide.espacenet.com/classification?locale=en_EP#!/CPC=Y02">patenting activity in related technologies</a>. Growth here could reflect general growth of patenting in all technologies, and so the chart below indicates low-carbon inventions as a share of inventions in all technology areas.</p>
<p>We can see rapid growth in the number of green patents filed over the last 30 years and particularly since 2005. Between 2000 and 2013, the number of new climate-mitigation inventions patented globally grew at an annual rate of almost 10%, more than double the rate of innovation in all technologies. However, low-carbon innovation efforts have started to slow since 2013.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142174/original/image-20161018-16145-b1ibfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142174/original/image-20161018-16145-b1ibfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142174/original/image-20161018-16145-b1ibfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142174/original/image-20161018-16145-b1ibfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142174/original/image-20161018-16145-b1ibfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142174/original/image-20161018-16145-b1ibfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142174/original/image-20161018-16145-b1ibfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142174/original/image-20161018-16145-b1ibfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author's calculations from the European Patent Office's Global Patent Statistical Database.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Priced out?</h2>
<p>One of the main drivers of low-carbon innovation is the price of energy. It is clear from our chart above that innovation efforts in low-carbon technologies go hand-in-hand with the price of oil, which is strongly correlated with the price of coal and gas, the two other major fossil fuels. Correlation, of course, is not necessarily causation, but there <a href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Dechezlepretre-et-al-policy-brief-Jan-2016.pdf">is ample evidence</a> that inventors react to higher energy prices by developing energy-saving (and hence carbon-saving) technologies. </p>
<p>We suspect, therefore, that the recent decline in low-carbon innovation is a direct consequence of the <a href="http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart">collapse in oil prices</a> from US$110 a barrel in August 2013 to US$51 this month, which makes the value of future energy savings smaller.</p>
<p>Low-carbon innovation also responds to the price that carbon emitters pay on their carbon emissions. When carbon can be emitted without cost – despite the damage created through increased climate change – companies and consumers lack incentives to invest in emissions‐reducing technologies. Without appropriate policy interventions, the market for technologies that reduce emissions will then be limited. </p>
<h2>Ebb and flow</h2>
<p>By making carbon emissions costly, climate policies such as carbon taxes or emissions allowances encourage the development of new low-carbon technologies. Research and development is motivated by profit, after all. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/REST_a_00470#.WAieAZOLTOZ">A recent paper</a> demonstrates this very clearly. The <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets/index_en.htm">European Union carbon market</a>) (EU ETS) obliges 12,000 industrial facilities to purchase allowances to cover carbon emissions. The chart below shows how this has increased innovation activity in low-carbon technologies among regulated companies. The chart plots the low-carbon patenting activity of firms regulated under the EU ETS against that of a carefully selected control group of unregulated but similar firms.</p>
<p>Both groups showed similar innovation activity before the introduction of the EU ETS, but companies facing a price on their carbon emissions from 2005 reacted by filing 30% more patents in low-carbon technologies, particularly in renewable energy, energy storage, energy efficiency and carbon sequestration.</p>
<p>Interestingly, the effect on innovation occurred when the price of carbon on the market was about €30/tonne CO<sub>2</sub> and when firms expected prices to remain at a high level in the foreseeable future. Since expectations over future prices are what determine innovation, long-term regulatory consistency is crucial. <a href="https://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/media/press-information/press-release-detail/article/carbon-price-drop-recession-innocent.html">Recent evidence suggests</a> that up to 90% of the recent fall in EU ETS carbon prices <a href="https://www.eex.com/en/market-data/environmental-markets/spot-market/european-emission-allowances">to about €6 a tonne</a> could be explained by the uncertainty about the level of ambition around long-term climate targets. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142185/original/image-20161018-15096-1jcbsg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142185/original/image-20161018-15096-1jcbsg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142185/original/image-20161018-15096-1jcbsg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142185/original/image-20161018-15096-1jcbsg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142185/original/image-20161018-15096-1jcbsg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142185/original/image-20161018-15096-1jcbsg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142185/original/image-20161018-15096-1jcbsg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142185/original/image-20161018-15096-1jcbsg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Calel & Dechezleprêtre 2016</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So a sufficiently high and stable carbon price encourages the development of low-carbon technologies. However, recent <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264260115-en">analysis by the OECD</a> shows that the price of carbon emissions globally is still extremely low. Among the 41 OECD and G20 countries surveyed (accounting for 80% of all energy use and carbon emissions worldwide), some 70% of emissions are not priced at all and only 4% are subject to a carbon price above €30, a conservative <a href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Working-Paper-159-Dietz-and-Stern-20141.pdf">estimate of the damage</a> that results from emitting one tonne of carbon dioxide. </p>
<p>A consequence of our analysis is that higher and more stable carbon prices than observed today are a necessary condition to restart the <a href="http://bruegel.org/2009/11/cold-start-for-the-green-innovation-machine/">low-carbon innovation machine</a>. This is particularly important given that the other major driver of low-carbon technology development – the price of fossil fuels – is both at a historical low and volatile. Agreeing on a single internationally <a href="http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/676039">binding minimum carbon price</a>, or establishing a price band <a href="http://energypost.eu/eu-emissions-trading-scheme-can-saved-price-band/">for CO<sub>2</sub> emission rights</a> in existing carbon markets would offer the kind of stability that innovators are currently lacking.</p>
<h2>Funding</h2>
<p>As with all innovation, it is usually impossible for inventors of low-carbon products to capture all the benefits of their innovations. Smartphone makers were all able to copy Apple’s iPhone idea even if they couldn’t copy the device itself. This low appropriation of the returns from innovation leads to under-investment in R&D. This is particularly <a href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publication/knowledge-spillovers-from-clean-and-dirty-technologies-a-patent-citation-analysis-working-paper-135/">the case in clean technologies</a>.</p>
<p>Overcoming this requires innovation policies such as public funding for basic research, subsidies for private R&D, better access to finance, funding for demonstration projects, technology accelerators and incubators, and support for commercial deployment of early-stage technologies, for example feed-in tariffs that subsidise electricity produced from renewables. </p>
<p>During the Paris talks, 20 countries from across the developed and developing world promised to <a href="http://mission-innovation.net/">double their clean energy R&D investment</a> over five years. This is welcome, and now needs to materialise. </p>
<p>However, technology support policies on their own are irrelevant. If no carbon pricing is in place to create a market demand for things like carbon capture and storage (CCS), then no R&D will be conducted even with large subsidies in place. In 2009 the European Commission implemented a programme which dedicated €1 billion <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/energy/eepr/projects/">to co-finance projects</a> in CCS, but all publicly supported projects have <a href="http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/global-learning-is-needed-to-save-carbon-capture-and-storage-from-being-abandoned">since been abandoned</a> because of the low carbon price on the market. </p>
<p>Meeting the commitment made in the Paris Agreement will require all countries to adopt low-carbon alternative technologies in all their sectors. Greater public funding for low-carbon R&D and higher and stable carbon pricing mechanisms are essential to achieve this. With <a href="http://sdg.iisd.org/events/unfccc-cop-22/">all eyes now on COP22</a>, it is to be hoped that events in Marrakesh can offer a greater commitment to low-carbon innovation as a central part of the way forward.</p>
<p><em>This piece is co-published with the World Economic Forum as part of its Final Frontier series. <a href="https://www.weforum.org/focus/agenda-in-focus-the-final-frontier?delete_local=36">You can read more here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antoine Dechezleprêtre acknowledges funding from the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, and from the UK Economic and Social Research Council through the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy. He has previously received funding from the European Investment Bank, the Swiss National Science Foundation, the Global Green Growth Institute, the French Ministry of Environment, the European Commission (FP7), INPI (Institut National de la Propriété Intellectuelle), and
ADEME (France’s Environmental Protection Agency).</span></em></p>New technologies that can help us to meet climate change targets are struggling to see the light of day. Incentives need to be fixed, and carbon pricing is at the heart of the matter.Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Associate Professorial Research Fellow, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/553632016-02-26T13:49:57Z2016-02-26T13:49:57ZWill self-driving cars reduce energy use and make travel better for the environment?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113074/original/image-20160226-26687-1g95dox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>I started learning driving only three years ago, and – inevitably – failed my first test. Naturally, I was disappointed: but then it occurred to me that I could avoid the whole issue, if only I could get my hands on a driverless car. And this triggered the research question: what would the overall impact on travel demand, energy use and carbon emissions be if driverless cars were readily available to the likes of you and me? </p>
<p>I joined a few like-minded academics in the US – <a href="http://www.ce.washington.edu/people/faculty/faculty.php?id=120">Don MacKenzie</a> and <a href="http://www.esd.ornl.gov/people/leiby/">Paul Leiby</a> – to <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856415002694">research</a> how the automation of road transport might affect energy use, and to quantify the potential range of these impacts.</p>
<p>We found that a widespread adoption of self-driving vehicles could indeed help to reduce energy consumption in a number of ways. For example, on motorways, automated vehicles can interact with each other and drive very closely as a “platoon”. This can reduce the total energy consumption of road transport by 4% to 25%, because vehicles which follow closely behind each other face less air resistance. </p>
<p>What’s more, when vehicles can interact with each other and road infrastructure – such as traffic control systems – this will smooth out the traffic flow. The result will be less congestion and a reduction in energy use of up to 4%. On top of this, automated “ecodriving” – a driving style which controls speed and acceleration for more efficient fuel use – can reduce energy use by up to 20%.</p>
<p>When you are riding in your self-driving car, obviously you won’t be at the controls, so you will no longer be able to enjoy the rapid acceleration of your driving days – so perhaps the desire for more powerful engines could diminish. And given that vehicle safety is <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-we-are-on-the-road-to-driverless-cars-50079">expected to improve dramatically</a> in self-driving cars, some of the heavy safety features could be removed, making cars lighter. Each of these changes could reduce energy use by up to 23%. </p>
<h2>The bigger picture</h2>
<p>So far, so good – all of these mechanisms improve the efficiency with which a car travels. But, as a society, our interest lies in reducing total energy use, or total carbon emissions – and energy efficiency forms only one half of this picture. Our total carbon emissions also depend on the demand for travel. So, while improving the energy efficiency of cars by automating the driving process will reduce the carbon emissions of individual vehicles, the overall impact of this change will depend on how many people use them.</p>
<p>For instance, consider what would happen if large numbers of people switched to self-driving cars from travelling by train. We generally prefer the <a href="http://content.tfl.gov.uk/technical-note-15-why-do-people-travel-by-car.pdf">privacy and convenience</a> of travelling by car, but using public transport means we can concentrate on other stuff – such as reading a book or getting some work done. A self-driving car offers all of these benefits. As a result, we found that driverless cars could prove so attractive that they increase car travel by up to 60% in the US. </p>
<p>As you can see below, the features of driverless cars may have a range of impacts on energy consumption – both positive, and negative. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113070/original/image-20160226-27003-1fobd8l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113070/original/image-20160226-27003-1fobd8l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113070/original/image-20160226-27003-1fobd8l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113070/original/image-20160226-27003-1fobd8l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113070/original/image-20160226-27003-1fobd8l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113070/original/image-20160226-27003-1fobd8l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113070/original/image-20160226-27003-1fobd8l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113070/original/image-20160226-27003-1fobd8l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changes in energy consumption, due to various mechanisms facilitated by automation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wadud Z, MacKenzie D and Leiby P</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Self-driving cars could also encourage a completely new group of people to own vehicles – for example, the elderly, the disabled and possibly those too young to drive themselves. This would increase the welfare of that demographic by giving them greater mobility. Yet travel demand, energy use and carbon emissions would all rise: our estimate for the US is an increase between 2% and 10%.</p>
<h2>Sharing is caring</h2>
<p>But it’s not all bad news: self-driving cars could encourage a move away from current car-owning culture to a car-sharing or on-demand culture. This opens up a few different possibilities. For one thing, by making the per-mile costs more visible to the user, car sharing or automated taxis could reduce travel demand from individuals. Yet these shared automated cars may still travel empty for some parts of their trips, so this option could lead a reduction of energy use between 0% to 20%. </p>
<p>But even greater energy savings are possible if the size of the self-driven shared car is matched to the trip type: for example, if a one-person commute trip is undertaken by a compact car, while for a family leisure trip a medium-sized sedan is used. This approach could reduce energy demand by 21% to 45%.</p>
<p>One thing we haven’t touched in great detail is the potential for self-driving cars to encourage a switch to alternate fuels such as electricity and reduce carbon emissions. Imagine the car dropping you off at your destination and finding a charging point to recharge itself. </p>
<p>So, automation does have the potential to reduce energy use for road transport. But this is not a direct result of automation per se; rather, it is due to how automation changes vehicle design, operations and ownership culture. It’s also interesting that some of the energy-saving benefits of self-driving cars are possible at a lower level of automation, through increased interaction between vehicles and infrastructure. </p>
<p>It is clear that the benefits of self-driving cars will depend on how we use them. The widespread adoption of automated vehicles could well have some unexpected effects, so it’s vital that we find and implement ways to realise the full energy-saving and carbon-reducing potential of self-driving cars. Until then, we’d better keep practising our driving.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55363/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zia Wadud does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Self-driving cars are way more energy efficient than your average vehicle – but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll reduce carbon emissions.Zia Wadud, Associate Professor, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/443892015-07-08T05:23:50Z2015-07-08T05:23:50ZSmart meters might be the only way to escape the Big Six and their overpriced energy<p>The UK is a rich, stable country with oil and gas reserves, lots of wind, and more than enough scientists and engineers to make the most of its resources. So why do so many people in the country continue to tolerate high energy bills and poor service?</p>
<p>The question of what can be done to encourage energy consumers to become more active and engaged has come to a head after the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) published <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/442500/EMI_PFs_Summary.pdf">provisional findings</a> from its investigation into the UK’s energy market. </p>
<p>One of the things the report considers is the attitudes and behaviour of the energy consumer – ordinary bill-payers like you or I. And one of the findings is that inactive, disengaged consumers are partly responsible for tolerating weak competition. Energy suppliers exploit this inertia to increase their profits. </p>
<p>Only a minority of the UK’s 27m electricity customers, or the 23m gas customers, are regularly shopping around for the best deal, or switching their energy supplier. In fact, 19m buy both their electricity and gas <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/442500/EMI_PFs_Summary.pdf">from the same supplier</a> and most of them remain on open-ended, standard variable tariffs (SVTs), rather than fixed term, non-standard tariffs, which are generally (but not always) cheaper. </p>
<p>While this consumer apathy persists, the “Big Six” energy suppliers have little incentive to compete aggressively on either price or service.</p>
<h2>Why do people put up with it?</h2>
<p>The first point to make here is that not all energy consumers are the same. However, it could be argued that a failure to acknowledge this has been one of the key problems with the energy market. Privatisation promised increased choice and competition, but the constraints of the supply chain and a shared infrastructure have worked against the development of a truly free market. How different do you really expect EDF and npower to be when they both carry the same electricity on the same grid? </p>
<p>Instead, the UK energy consumer has been bewildered by complicated pricing and paralysed by the belief that changing supplier involves too much hassle and carries the risk of ending up worse off in the long run. Previous sharp practice, using door-to-door sales techniques (which <a href="http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-2168690/E-ON-ends-doorstep-selling-cleans-way-charges-customers-energy.html">ended in 2012</a>), has left a legacy of mistrust towards the whole industry. Some regulations designed to protect consumers, such as a ban on regional price discrimination and an enforced reduction in the number of tariffs, may have actually <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/442500/EMI_PFs_Summary.pdf">weakened competition</a>.</p>
<p>There are consumers who are prepared to search for the best deal, either by using a price comparison website, or by joining a buying consortium such as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-more-big-power-plants-civic-energy-could-provide-half-our-electricity-by-2050-38183">community energy scheme</a>. They may also have invested in technology to monitor their energy consumption patterns. However, as the latest energy market report points out, these consumers tend to be relatively <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/442500/EMI_PFs_Summary.pdf">wealthy and highly educated</a>. They may be motivated by a desire not just to save money, but also by environmental concerns to reduce their carbon footprint.</p>
<p>Many other consumers do not or cannot search for the best deal. This may be because they don’t have the necessary numeracy skills, internet access or confidence to make an informed decision. They may be poor, old or living in rented accommodation and more pre-occupied with their immediate short-term finances, leaving them <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/442500/EMI_PFs_Summary.pdf">unable or unwilling</a> to make long-term financial choices. Another cause of inaction and apathy is the fact that gas and electricity are perceived as rather boring, undifferentiated commodities; necessary evils that are difficult to get excited about. </p>
<h2>An energy supplier - aimed at you?</h2>
<p>For the energy market to work more efficiently and fairly, both the regulators and the energy providers must understand and serve the different types of energy consumer, by segmenting the market in an appropriate way.</p>
<p>One study of the Swiss energy market identified <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511007920">six clusters of energy customer</a>, based on their knowledge, values, capabilities and habits. These segments were characterised as “idealistic energy-savers”, “convenience-oriented indifferent energy consumers”, and so on. </p>
<p>The researchers concluded that each group needs to be targeted with different messages and incentives, tailored to their particular characteristics and circumstances. This makes a lot of sense – a wealthy person obsessed with cutting their carbon footprint is hardly likely to be swayed by an advert promising cheap energy aimed at an entirely different demographic.</p>
<p>Another method of segmentation based on <a href="http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=6784499">cost-of-service</a> has been proposed as a possible basis for supplier strategy in the future. The authors of the study, two Stanford scientists, pointed out that two different consumers of energy may have the same overall power usage, but the cost of supplying them can vary greatly, because of their different consumption patterns, such as usage at peak and off-peak times. They argue detailed information on the presence of certain household appliances such as tumble dryers is a strong predictor of energy usage.</p>
<p>Combined with detailed data from smart meters (which are planned to be installed in all UK households by 2020), energy suppliers could gain valuable insights into each customers’ energy needs and behaviour. This knowledge could allow them to offer individualised tariffs, perhaps to incentivise off-peak usage of expensive appliances such as tumble dryers.</p>
<p>At the same time, data from smart meters, combined with greater trust in the information provided by comparison websites, will be key to consumers becoming more engaged in understanding their own energy usage and encouraging them to switch suppliers on a regular basis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44389/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Harvey is affiliated with The Labour Party.</span></em></p>Personalised energy services would stop everyone getting ripped off.David Harvey, Senior Lecturer in Marketing , University of HuddersfieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/417112015-06-09T03:40:56Z2015-06-09T03:40:56ZOur ageing populations could help slow greenhouse emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83913/original/image-20150604-11710-1oeoe5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C14%2C1922%2C1270&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Old people in many countries are less likely to own a car.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Anna Jurkovska/Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In many parts of the world, and particularly in developed countries, populations are getting older. Of the baby boomers (born between 1945 and 1965), the oldest are now well into their sixties, and in their lifetimes fertility rates have fallen while life expectancies have climbed.</p>
<p>For every four people aged between 15 and 64 in Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan, there is now <a href="http://esa.un.org/wpp/">one person over 65</a>. And this proportion is growing – by the end of the century, there will be <a href="http://esa.un.org/wpp/">two over-65s for every five people of working age</a>.</p>
<p>Population ageing will put <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-tightens-pension-assets-test-to-save-2-4-billion-41449">significant pressure on the fiscal policies</a> of governments around the world. Healthcare and pension systems are expected to bear the brunt, while ageing populations will shrink the labour force, putting downward pressure on economic productivity. </p>
<p>But what if there’s an upside for the environment? My <a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/JES-04-2013-0046">recent research</a> has found that, in rich countries at least, ageing populations might help to drive down greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<h2>Do old people emit less carbon dioxide?</h2>
<p>We found two ways in which population ageing may reduce CO<sub>2</sub> emissions – one direct, the other indirect. The direct link stems from the consumption patterns of people aged over 65. Typically, older people demand different goods and services compared with the working-aged population, for instance because of different transport or food-purchasing habits.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/people_and_communities/older_people/older-new-zealanders-65-and-beyond.aspx">A New Zealand survey</a> showed that consumption drops significantly after retirement. Meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.bls.gov/cex/">US Consumer Expenditure Survey</a> shows that levels of fuel use by older households are substantially smaller than in younger households. This implies that an older person is likely to use less private transport, which in turn results in <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988306000892">reduced emissions</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://pustaka.pu.go.id/files/pdf/BALITBANG-03-C000117-72973001200222209-travel_behaviour.pdf">comparative study</a> of older people’s transportation behaviour in Germany and the United States showed that older people in both countries were less likely than their younger compatriots to have a car or a driver’s licence, and tended to stay at home more often.</p>
<p>Consumption patterns and the nature of needs during old age is such that the provision of basic needs like good health, healthy social relations, security – all of which are less energy-intensive – become more important than discretionary consumption. </p>
<p>The pattern is also reflected in diets. Put simply, older people eat less. In the United States, where average food energy intake <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1038/oby.2002.51/full">increased markedly</a> between the early 1970s and the late 1990s for almost all age groups, those aged 60 and above were the only ones to buck the trend.</p>
<h2>Indirect effects</h2>
<p>Now to the indirect effect, which works through labour market dynamics. An ageing population is associated with lower workforce participation rates, causing a slowdown in economic growth, which in turn reduces emissions. Although many of the conveniences that address age-related changes, such as automobiles, elevators and air-conditioning, are highly dependent on energy, the limited mobility of older people is likely to put downward pressure on CO<sub>2</sub> emissions caused by their energy use. </p>
<p>To test our theory that older people help to reduce CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, my colleague Ruhul Salim and I used an analytical tool called the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), named after the economist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Kuznets">Simon Kuznets</a>, which describes an inverted U-shaped relationship between emissions and economic growth. This is because economic growth initially increases pollution, but beyond a certain level of per capita income it <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009506968471031X">reduces it</a>. (I should point out here that while the EKC has been applied to a <a href="http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/110/2/353.short">wide range of environmental pollutants</a>, it was not specifically developed to analyse greenhouse emissions.)</p>
<p>We looked at data from 25 OECD countries (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States) from 1980 to 2010. We analysed countries’ per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and the proportion of the population aged 65 years and above (using data from the <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators">World Development Indicator 2011</a>), as well as the countries’ <a href="http://www.eia.gov/">carbon dioxide emissions</a></p>
<p>We found that an ageing population has significant negative influence on CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Our analysis suggests that a 1% increase in the share of elderly people aged 65 years and above reduces per capita CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by an estimated 1.55% in the long run.</p>
<h2>The wider context</h2>
<p>The findings of our research should be taken with care. First, we consider only CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, and not other pollutants such as sulphur dioxide. </p>
<p>Second, many OECD countries are adopting policies to motivate older people to work longer. In many countries, the effective age of retirement (the age that people actually stop working rather than the age at which they are officially supposed to retire) has <a href="http://www.oecd.org/els/public-pensions/ageingandemploymentpolicies-statisticsonaverageeffectiveageofretirement.htm">begun to increase</a> after a sustained fall since 1970. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81408/original/image-20150512-22539-c6asof.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81408/original/image-20150512-22539-c6asof.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81408/original/image-20150512-22539-c6asof.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81408/original/image-20150512-22539-c6asof.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81408/original/image-20150512-22539-c6asof.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81408/original/image-20150512-22539-c6asof.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81408/original/image-20150512-22539-c6asof.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81408/original/image-20150512-22539-c6asof.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Effective age of retirement (1970 – 2012)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.oecd.org</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If older people are working longer and retiring later, then the emissions-reducing effect of an ageing population may not be realized in the future. What’s more, gauging the effect of population ageing, against the backdrop of economy-wide emissions reductions that many developed countries <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-2015-climate-summit-countries-targets-beyond-2020-38427">have now pledged to deliver</a>, would require some very detailed economic modelling indeed.</p>
<p>The other issue to consider is whether the emissions cuts delivered by ageing people in the developed world will be swamped by the expanding middle class and growing fuel use of developing nations. Even among those not joining the developing world’s burgeoning middle classes, significant greenhouse gas emissions can come from <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/a0789e/a0789e09.htm">household burning of fuels</a> such as kerosene, wood, roots, crop residuals, and dung. </p>
<p>It is likely that emissions reductions in developed countries may not help the global climate effort if developing countries do not take appropriate and effective measures to reduce their own emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41711/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kamrul Hassan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Could developed countries’ ageing populations help clean up the climate? New research suggests that a 1% increase in the proportion of over-65s delivers a 1.5% cut in carbon dioxide emissions.Kamrul Hassan, Lecturer in Finance, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/296272014-07-23T17:52:21Z2014-07-23T17:52:21ZRising energy costs and insecurity show EU must get real about reducing demand<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/54684/original/3v7k3q8q-1406129177.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Energy use - shrink it.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Compact_fluorescent_light_bulbs_105W_36W_11W.jpg">Tobias Maier</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/23/us-eu-energy-efficiency-idUSKBN0FS1AL20140723">proposing</a> a 30% rather than a 40% energy demand reduction target, the European Commission is increasing the risks that European Union member states face from fossil fuel dependence and slowing the economic and social benefits of better insulated homes and lower energy bills.</p>
<p>The EU should have the courage to adopt a legally binding target of 40% energy savings by 2030 as was originally proposed. This would ensure that all member states introduce effective energy efficiency policies and would reinforce the EU’s leadership role in reducing carbon emissions and preventing dangerous climate change. </p>
<p>The proposed 30% target suggests a weakening of political commitment. Several studies have shown how the <a href="http://energycoalition.eu/sites/default/files/Fraunhofer%20ISI_ReferenceTargetSystemReport.pdf">technology and strategies are available</a> to achieve more ambitious reductions without imposing a burden on the economy. For example, there are already cars currently available that are 40% more fuel-efficient than the current EU standard – and changes in design and materials can reduce emissions by more than 40%. </p>
<p>A legally binding 40% target would potentially reduce EU gas imports by up to 40% compared to 2010, roughly equivalent to the amount of gas currently <a href="https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-and-europe-are-tied-by-gas-dependency-25719">imported from Russia</a>. It would <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-bills-the-cheapest-energy-is-energy-we-dont-use-20732">reduce household energy bills</a> through improved energy efficiency, lowering levels of fuel poverty and reducing the effects of poor-quality housing on health. And it would reduce the scale of investment in renewable energy infrastructure by reducing energy demand.</p>
<p>A binding target would ensure political commitment to the task of developing effective energy-efficiency policies and provide long-term confidence for investors delivering commercial goods and services for energy efficiency. It would also drive innovation in energy-efficient products, opening up market opportunities for EU industries around the world.</p>
<p>Why adopt a target as well as energy efficiency policies? Improving energy efficiency is the cheapest and fastest way of reducing carbon emissions, while at the same time providing economic, social and environmental benefits. Without an ambitious overall energy-efficiency target it’s unlikely that member states would unlock these benefits. Nor can these benefits be achieved through the carbon price delivered through the EU emissions trading scheme.</p>
<p>An aggregate target helps ensure that energy savings in one area are not offset by the rebound effect of increased energy demand in another. A legally binding target at the EU level would help ensure that progress is monitored, action is taken and results achieved. None of this is incompatible with the emissions trading scheme provided the appropriate steps are taken to ensure a minimum carbon price.</p>
<p>A 40% target is within our grasp, technically and economically, and would send a strong message that EU intends to lead on these issues. Regional instability in North Africa, the Middle East and now Ukraine has shown time and again that over-reliance on imported fossil fuels makes countries vulnerable to price shocks and supply interruptions.</p>
<p>We need to reduce those risks and at the same time protect the climate. Improved energy efficiency comes top of the list for cost-effectiveness and wider benefits. Recent progress has demonstrated that significant reductions in energy consumption can be achieved while maintaining productivity and quality of life – UK energy consumption fell by 12% between 2000-2012, while <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/energy-consumption-in-the-uk">GDP increased by 58%</a>.</p>
<p>Improvements in technology and changes in behaviour will make a 40% reduction by 2030 not only desirable but entirely achievable. But it must be backed up by political commitment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29627/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Barrett receives funding from the Research Council's Energy Programme for the UK INDEMAND Centre and the UK Energy Research Centre</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew ZP Smith receives funding from Research Councils UK. He works for the UCL Energy Institute.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Sorrell receives funding from the RCUK Energy Programme as part of the Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand.</span></em></p>In proposing a 30% rather than a 40% energy demand reduction target, the European Commission is increasing the risks that European Union member states face from fossil fuel dependence and slowing the economic…John Barrett, Professor of Sustainability Research, University of LeedsAndrew ZP Smith, Academic Head of RCUK Centre for Energy Epidemiology, University College CorkSteve Sorrell, Senior Lecturer, SPRU, University of Sussex Business School, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.