tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/fires-7588/articlesFires – The Conversation2024-03-12T19:14:35Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231992024-03-12T19:14:35Z2024-03-12T19:14:35ZFire represents power and control for an Indigneous teenager who lacks both, in Melanie Saward’s compassionate debut novel<p>“From the moment I got here, I’ve wanted to set the whole of Brisbane on fire,” reflects Andrew, the protagonist of Melanie Saward’s debut novel.</p>
<p>Saward, a Bigambul and Wakka Wakka author, moved to Bracken Ridge in the northern suburbs of Brisbane as a teenager, after growing up in Tasmania. So does Andrew, who like her, is Indigenous.</p>
<p>When we meet him, he is in Year 10 and has recently moved to Bracken Ridge with his mother, Linda, and her boyfriend, Dave. Neither of them show Andrew much love or care and he is saving to return to Tasmania to find his father, who he is no longer in contact with. </p>
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<p><em>Review: Burn – Melanie Saward (Affirm Press)</em></p>
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<p>In alternating chapters, Saward fills in the back story. After eight-year-old Andrew lit a fire in his primary school’s bathroom, his father pulled him out of school and they all moved from social housing in an impoverished suburb of Launceston to a caravan in Port Sorell on the north-east coast of Tasmania. </p>
<p>The novel is structured around three main fires. The first is the one Andrew lights at his primary school. Then a fire lands Andrew and his closest friend Sarah, an adopted Indigenous girl being raised by religious parents, in the youth justice system. Threaded through the book, there’s the drama of a third, serious fire in Queensland, in which Andrew is implicated. </p>
<p>Fire is symbolic: it’s power and control for Andrew, who has precious little control over his life.</p>
<h2>Reading as ‘invited guests’</h2>
<p>In her chapter “Presencing” in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-companion-to-the-australian-novel/4AE03434E69DB67466E58C9AD5CDCADD">The Cambridge Companion to the Australian Novel</a>, Wiradjuri writer and scholar <a href="https://www.uqp.com.au/authors/jeanine-leane">Jeanine Leane</a> urges settlers to approach Indigenous texts not as “tourists” but “invited guests”. Writes Leane: </p>
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<p>Presencing means the recognition that First Nations works are happening in the same ‘now’ as the settler reader. The writer and the reader are in the same moment in time, but this moment in time is interpreted from different cultural standpoints and perspectives. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579103/original/file-20240301-17-qbt90m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C83%2C1559%2C977&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579103/original/file-20240301-17-qbt90m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C83%2C1559%2C977&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579103/original/file-20240301-17-qbt90m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579103/original/file-20240301-17-qbt90m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579103/original/file-20240301-17-qbt90m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579103/original/file-20240301-17-qbt90m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579103/original/file-20240301-17-qbt90m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579103/original/file-20240301-17-qbt90m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Melanie Saward’s debut novel is set in the Brisbane suburbs she moved to as a teenager. Jill Kerswill.</span>
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<p>I also had a Tasmanian adolescence. While my own experience was very different, I recognise the way poverty and deprivation press up against natural beauty in Saward’s novel. </p>
<p>As an adult living in Melbourne, I became gradually aware of the <a href="https://www.griffithreview.com/editions/tasmania-the-tipping-point/">economic gap between the mainland and Tasmania</a>. High levels of youth unemployment and lack of opportunity, low levels of education, limited health services, and an appalling lack of duty of care to young, vulnerable people were all part of my adolescence. They were reasons I left the state when I was old enough to do so. </p>
<p>The consolation of a Tasmanian adolescence was wilderness. I grew up in the foothills of a mountain, observing the way the weather moved across the landscape. I was soothed by the sound of Silver Falls, and the way streams of bright sun penetrated the fern forests on the pipeline track where we used to go to drink, smoke, bitch and have sex. </p>
<p>Despite living in Melbourne for nearly 30 years, I still feel the thread Saward writes about, connecting me to Tasmania.</p>
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<p>Dad used to say that we were connected to Tassie, even though we didn’t really know who our people were. ‘It’s about where you’re made as much as where your people come from,’ he said. I never understood what he meant by that till Mum told me we were leaving. From the minute the plane took off, I felt the thread connecting me to home get more and more stretched.</p>
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<p>Like Andrew and his father, I was made in Hobart. But I was the child of a third-generation Tasmanian mother descended from Scottish and Irish farmers and teachers, and a father who moved to Tasmania as a ten-pound pom after his first marriage ended. </p>
<p>When I was a child in the 1980s, we were taught in schools that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/28/unesco-removes-hurtful-document-claiming-tasmanian-aboriginal-people-extinct#:%7E:text=The%20inaccurate%20claim%2C%20stating%20that,world%20heritage%20list%20in%201982.">Tasmanian Aboriginals were extinct</a>, a lie that serves the idea colonialism is something that has already happened and exists only in the past – in remote, almost mythical, places like Botany Bay and Port Arthur. </p>
<p>By turning her gaze on the impacts of <a href="https://www.indigenousmhspc.gov.au/publications/trauma">intergenerational trauma</a>, Saward shows the full force of present-day colonialism in Australia. </p>
<p>I was tender towards Andrew and understood his rage. I was angry with his absent and neglectful parents. Burn, however, generates a type of “presencing” that allows you to see complexity in the way the past manifests in the present. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-30-years-after-mabo-what-do-australias-battler-stories-and-their-evasions-say-about-who-we-are-187110">Friday essay: 30 years after Mabo, what do Australia's battler stories – and their evasions – say about who we are?</a>
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<h2>Inside family trauma</h2>
<p>When eight-year-old Andrew first lands in Port Sorrell with his parents, he is happy there, fishing and riding his bike with his father. However, Andrew’s mother’s mental health worsens and Andrew’s dad withdraws, emotionally at first, before finally leaving town without saying goodbye.</p>
<p>Before that happens, Andrew’s dad takes him fishing in a tidal pool, but warns him not to swim there.</p>
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<p>“We don’t know how deep it is,” he said the first time I started wading in for a paddle. “And we don’t know if there are sharks and other nasties trapped in there. They’ll be angry about being stuck and hungry. If a nice, warm, nearly nine-year-old boy gets in, they might think you’re their dinner.”</p>
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<p>The tidal pool becomes a recurring image for trauma. In one scene, Sarah dares him to go skinny-dipping in the tidal pool. Andrew warns her against it, remembering his father’s warning. This scene poignantly foreshadows both Andrew’s resilience and Sarah’s inability to resist her own hidden darkness. </p>
<p>At first Andrew’s mother, Linda, reminded me of the cold, angry mother in Jasper Jones, a flat character with no redemption. But unlike Craig Silvey, whose loyalty lies solely with his young characters, Melanie Saward writes with deep compassion and understanding for Andrew’s parents. </p>
<p>We see inside family trauma, how the dynamics are self-perpetuating. The parents are confronted with the messiest, most vulnerable, most hidden and shameful parts of themselves – made manifest in Andrew. </p>
<p>We also bear witness to the role institutions play in exacerbating trauma associated with colonialism, such as ongoing disconnection from culture. School, youth justice, community housing and the health system all fail Andrew and his parents in multiple ways, even when individuals within these institutions mean well. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/my-favourite-fictional-character-queenie-a-young-black-woman-living-and-dating-in-london-is-complex-funny-broken-fun-188297">My favourite fictional character: Queenie, a young Black woman living and dating in London, is 'complex, funny, broken, fun'</a>
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<h2>Crossover appeal</h2>
<p><a href="https://affirmpress.com.au/browse/book/Melanie-Saward-Burn-9781922848482">Burn</a> has obvious crossover appeal for teen and adult audiences, with a strong adolescent protagonist driving the story. So it interests me that this novel has been published as adult fiction. In fact as a young adult author and once-upon-a-time editor of books for teenagers, I puzzled over the decision. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579105/original/file-20240301-16-8hnnku.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579105/original/file-20240301-16-8hnnku.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579105/original/file-20240301-16-8hnnku.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579105/original/file-20240301-16-8hnnku.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579105/original/file-20240301-16-8hnnku.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579105/original/file-20240301-16-8hnnku.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579105/original/file-20240301-16-8hnnku.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579105/original/file-20240301-16-8hnnku.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>But ultimately, Burn breaks a particular young adult formula. When teaching young adult fiction to creative writing and publishing classes, I often ask <a href="https://www.liliwilkinson.com.au/">Dr Lili Wilkinson’s</a> four powerful plotting questions: What does your character want? What’s stopping them from getting what they want? What will happen if they fail? What do they need to do? </p>
<p>In this novel, there is nothing Andrew alone can do to break the cycle of intergenerational trauma. The only answer posed to the question, “What does Andrew need to do?” is: light fires. The most uncomfortable truth at the heart of this novel is that Andrew exists in a narrow space of limited possibility. He can’t save himself. Individual agency is not the solution to intergenerational trauma or broken systems. </p>
<p>Andrew lights fires under the adults who have turned from him and failed him. Andrew lights fires to disrupt colonialism and patterns of intergenerational trauma. Andrew lights fires which destroy, but Andrew’s fires also offer regeneration and renewal. </p>
<h2>‘Who’s your mob?’</h2>
<p>Something I particularly loved about this novel was the way the adolescent characters try to take care of each other. In Tasmania, Sarah and Andrew try and fail to imagine new futures for themselves, to generate a fantasy of who they might be. In Queensland, friends Doug and Trent strive to dismantle Andrew’s barriers. New love interest, Tess, makes clumsy attempts to connect with Andrew, and he in turn tries hard not hurt her. </p>
<p>In a white, middle-class novel about a young protagonist, these friendships might have become Andrew’s found family – the non-biological ties that so often permeate youth stories in the face of adult failure. However, Melanie Saward decides not to place the burden of Andrew’s continued wellbeing on his peers. Instead, she allows herself a speculative experiment in future thinking, within the framework of contemporary realism. </p>
<p>What could an ending for a kid like Andrew look like when youth justice is decolonised? Melanie Saward looks to the adults and the systems they control to step up and take control.</p>
<p>The question Sarah asks Andrew – “Who’s your mob?” – demands an answer, in order to end the cycle of trauma and create a hopeful ending. This question cuts to the heart of what it means to belong: to family, to Country, to culture and to your own story.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223199/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Penni Russon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bigambul and Wakka Wakka author Melanie Saward’s Burn is structured around three fires. It bears witness to the role institutions play in exacerbating trauma associated with colonialism.Penni Russon, Senior Lecturer, School of Communication, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246362024-02-28T06:08:02Z2024-02-28T06:08:02ZVictoria’s fire alert has knocked Australians out of complacency. Under climate change, catastrophic bushfires can strike any time<p>Victorians were braced for the worst on Wednesday amid soaring temperatures and gusty winds, creating the state’s worst fire conditions in years. Authorities have declared a “<a href="https://news.cfa.vic.gov.au/news/catastrophic-fire-danger-for-wimmera">catastrophic</a>” fire risk in some parts of the state.</p>
<p>At the time of writing, the Bayindeen bushfire near Ballarat was still burning out of control, almost <a href="https://www.aol.com/news/thousands-told-flee-homes-australia-230102847.html">a week</a> after it began. It had razed 21,300 hectares, destroyed six homes and killed livestock. And more than 30,000 people in high-risk areas between Ballarat and Ararat had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/27/victoria-fires-bushfires-evacuations-warnings-extreme-danger-ballarat-ararat">reportedly been told</a> to leave their homes.</p>
<p>This statewide emergency is noteworthy for several reasons. First, it represent a big test of Australia’s updated fire danger rating system. The new version adopted in 2022 dictates that if a fire takes hold under catastrophic conditions, people should leave an area rather than shelter in place or stay defend their homes.</p>
<p>The second point to note is the timing: late February, when many Australians probably thought the worst of the bushfire season was over. Climate change is bringing not just more frequent and severe fires, but <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2315/study-fire-seasons-getting-longer-more-frequent/">longer fire seasons</a>. That means we must stay on heightened alert for much longer than in the past.</p>
<h2>Under catastrophic conditions, leave</h2>
<p>The current <a href="https://afdrs.com.au">Australian Fire Danger Rating System</a> was implemented in September 2022. It’s a nationally consistent system based on the latest scientific research.</p>
<p>Authorities hope the system will more accurately predict fire danger. It was also designed to more clearly communicate the danger rating to the public. For example, it involves just four danger ratings, compared to the previous six under the old Victorian regime.</p>
<p>“Catastrophic” fire danger – previously “code red” in Victoria – represents the worst conditions. The main message for the public under these conditions is:</p>
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<p>If a fire starts and takes hold, lives are likely to be lost. For your survival leave bushfire risk areas.</p>
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<p>Under catastrophic conditions, people are advised to move to a safer location early in the morning or even the day before. Authorities warn “homes cannot withstand fires in these conditions. You may not be able to leave, and help may not be available”.</p>
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<img alt="two fire danger rating systems" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=209&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=209&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=209&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The old fire rating system in Victoria, versus the new national system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFDRS</span></span>
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<h2>Lessons from Black Saturday</h2>
<p>Australia’s previous fire danger rating system was developed in the 1960s and was formally known as the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/disasters/bushfires/mk5-forest-fire-danger-meter">McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index</a>. It initially comprised five risk levels ranging from low-moderate to extreme. However, states were free to adapt the system to their needs, including adding extra categories.</p>
<p>The devastating 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/2025/remembering-black-saturday-the-extraordinary-weather-behind-victorias-2009-bushfires/">killed 173 people</a>. Many people died after staying to defend their properties. </p>
<p>The tragedy prompted scrutiny of the fire danger ratings system in Victoria, and the “code red” category was added. The <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-apr-2011-preparing-for-a-code-red-day/">message</a> under those conditions was that those living in a bushfire-prone area should leave. The first code red was declared in 2010, then another <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-21/emergency-officials-declare-code-red-day-for-victoria/11722420">in 2019</a>.</p>
<p>That system was replaced by the national system in 2022.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-planet-is-burning-in-unexpected-ways-heres-how-we-can-protect-people-and-nature-213215">Our planet is burning in unexpected ways - here’s how we can protect people and nature</a>
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<h2>Don’t stay and defend</h2>
<p>Under the current fire danger rating system, catastrophic conditions mean everyone should leave an area. The leave orders currently issued in Victoria cover many thousands of people, and represent a big test of this advice. </p>
<p>We don’t yet know how many people will heed the advice of authorities. However, at least some people have reportedly decided to <a href="https://9now.nine.com.au/today/victoria-fires-update-beaufort-wedding-venue-owner-staying-behind-to-protect-home-and-business/2ae18f36-0025-461b-a45b-2171893c9a67">stay and defend their properties</a>.</p>
<p>If thousands of others do flee, what will result? Will rural roads be blocked? Do we have the infrastructure to temporarily house all those evacuees? Whether or not the fire situation escalates on Wednesday, there will be much to learn about how we deal with such threats.</p>
<p>Certainly, it’s prudent for people in high-risk areas to leave. In hot, windy conditions, a fire could erupt and take hold in minutes. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">collapse</a> of electricity transmission towers in Victoria last week showed the vulnerability of such infrastructure in high winds. It doesn’t take long for downed power lines to ignite the surrounding bush.</p>
<p>Is there a potential alternative to the mass relocation of people in response to a major fire risk? Yes: building communities that are sufficiently fire-proofed to withstand catastrophic fire weather.</p>
<p>This could be achieved through adaptation measures such as building <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/8/298">fire bunkers</a> and specially-designed houses. It would also involve carefully managed bushland and creating fire breaks by planting non-flammable plants. It may also include <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.adi8066">targeted cultural burning</a> by Traditional Owners. These options require further discussion and research.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sleepwalking-a-bushfire-scientist-explains-what-the-hawaii-tragedy-means-for-our-flammable-continent-211364">'Australia is sleepwalking': a bushfire scientist explains what the Hawaii tragedy means for our flammable continent</a>
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<h2>Our fire seasons are getting longer</h2>
<p>The current emergency in Victoria shows how Australia’s fire seasons are changing.</p>
<p>It’s late February and summer is almost over. The kids are back at school and the adults are back at work. It seemed southeast Australia had escaped the bad fire summer that many had feared. Few people expected this late-season emergency.</p>
<p>But as climate change escalates, we must expect the unexpected. In a fire-prone continent such as Australia, we can never relax in a warming world. We must be in a constant, heightened state of preparedness.</p>
<p>That means know your risk and prepare your home. Draw up a bushfire survival plan – think about details such as what to do with pets and who will check on vulnerable neighbours. And please, heed the advice of authorities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224636/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bowman receives funding from the Australian Research Council, New South Wales Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre and Natural Hazards Research Australia.</span></em></p>Many Australians probably thought the worst of the bushfire season was over. But climate change is bringing not just more frequent and severe fires, but longer fire seasons.David Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241332024-02-22T18:11:17Z2024-02-22T18:11:17ZClimate change is fanning the flames of NZ’s wildfire future. Port Hills is only the beginning<p>Last week, <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/509653/police-find-witnesses-to-650-hectare-port-hills-blaze">wildfire burnt through 650 hectares</a> of forest and scrub in Christchurch’s Port Hills. This is not the first time the area has faced a terrifying wildfire event. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://assets.stuff.co.nz/interactives/2017/firestorm/">2017 Port Hills fires</a> burnt through almost 2,000 hectares of land, claiming one life and 11 homes. It took 66 days before the fires were fully extinguished. </p>
<p>It is clear New Zealand stands at a pivotal juncture. The country faces an increasingly severe wildfire climate. And our once relatively “safe” regions are now under threat. </p>
<p>At all levels of government, New Zealand needs to consider whether our current investment to combat fires will be enough in the coming decades. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002853">Our research</a> integrating detailed climate simulations with daily observations reveals a stark forecast: an uptick in both the frequency and intensity of wildfires, particularly in the inland areas of the South Island. </p>
<p>It is time to consider what this will mean for Fire and Emergency New Zealand (FENZ), and how a strategic calibration of resources, tactics and technologies will help New Zealand confront this emerging threat.</p>
<h2>The climate drivers of wildfires</h2>
<p>Last year was the <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2024/2023-was-hottest-year-record-copernicus-data-show">warmest year on record</a> by a large margin. And with <a href="https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-january-2024-march-2024">El Niño at full throttle into 2024</a>, conditions in late-summer Aotearoa New Zealand are hot and dry. There is also plenty of vegetation fuel from the <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/485129/saying-goodbye-to-la-nina-what-to-expect-from-autumn-s-weather">departing wet La Niña</a>. </p>
<p>The tinder-dry scrub and grass vegetation in the Port Hills – an area that was around 30% above “extreme” drought fire danger thresholds – drove the flammability of the region. And on February 13, when the latest fires started, a strong gusty northwesterly wind was blowing 40-50kph with exceptionally dry relative humidity values.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">Human exposure to wildfires has more than doubled in two decades – who is at risk might surprise you</a>
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<p>These conditions resulted in the extreme wildfire behaviour. Only the rapid and coordinated response of FENZ on the ground and in the air prevented this fire from becoming much worse. </p>
<p>While conditions are already bad, our study revealed a concerning trend: the widespread emergence of a new wildfire climate, with regions previously unaffected by “very extreme” wildfire conditions now facing unprecedented threats. </p>
<p>The most severe dangers are projected for areas like the Mackenzie Country, upper Otago and Marlborough, where conditions similar to <a href="https://theconversation.com/200-experts-dissected-the-black-summer-bushfires-in-unprecedented-detail-here-are-6-lessons-to-heed-198989">Australia’s “Black Summer” fires</a> could occur every three to 20 years. </p>
<p>This shift is not merely an environmental concern, it is a socioeconomic one. The increased threat of wildfires will affect communities, the government’s tree-planting initiatives and financial investments in carbon forests.</p>
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<h2>Enhanced resources and agile response</h2>
<p>New Zealand’s firefighting strategy emphases speed and manoeuvrability, especially in the initial attack phase, to prevent wildfires from escalating into large-scale disasters.</p>
<p>Approximately NZ$10 million is allocated annually to general firefighting aviation services, translating into around 11,000 flight hours. The aerial battle over the Port Hills peaked on Thursday and Friday. This effort cost over $1 million, with up to 15 helicopters active over the two days.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-wildfires-affect-climate-change-and-vice-versa-158688">How wildfires affect climate change — and vice versa</a>
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<p>FENZ operations are primarily funded by property insurance levies. However, with the severity and frequency of wildfires on the rise, it may be necessary to review this funding model to match the evolving risk portfolio. </p>
<p>Climate change is already driving insurance retreat – a phenomenon whereby coastal properties are <a href="https://www.climatesigma.com/projects/insurance-retreat">unable to renew their insurance</a> due sea level rise. It is plausible insurance companies could take a similar stance in extremely fire-prone areas.</p>
<p>The agility of FENZ and associated rural fire teams, coupled with the investment and integration of advanced technologies and modelling for better wildfire prediction and management, can significantly enhance the effectiveness of firefighting efforts. </p>
<h2>Policy adjustments and community engagement</h2>
<p>Adjustments in policy and regulatory frameworks are also crucial in mitigating wildfire risks, and should be explored by experts. </p>
<p>To significantly reduce the ignition of new fires, there needs to be greater implementation of restrictions on access, and banning of high-risk activities, when areas are under “extreme fire risk”. </p>
<p>Moreover, community engagement and preparedness initiatives are vital. One successful example is <a href="https://www.scionresearch.com/about-us/about-scion/corporate-publications/scion-connections/past-issues-list/scion-connections-issue-42,-february-2023/accessible-information-vital-in-extending-knowledge-of-wildfire-risk">Mt Iron, Wanaka</a>, where a model was developed after interviews, focus groups and workshops with residents identified wildfire risk awareness and mitigation actions. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/living-with-wildfire-how-to-protect-more-homes-as-fire-risk-rises-in-a-warming-climate-208652">Living with wildfire: How to protect more homes as fire risk rises in a warming climate</a>
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<p>Educating vulnerable communities about their wildfire risks and preparedness strategies can also <a href="https://www.ruralfireresearch.co.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/78664/RFR_tech_note_45.pdf">enhance community resilience and safety</a>.</p>
<p>The emergence of a more severe wildfire climate in New Zealand calls for a unified response, integrating increased investment in FENZ, strategic planning and community involvement. </p>
<p>By embracing a multifaceted approach that includes technological innovation, enhanced resource, and community empowerment, New Zealand can navigate the complexities of this new era with resilience and foresight.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathanael is the founding director of Climate Prescience. He has received government funding from MBIE NZ to research the effect of climate change on wildfire risk. The opinions expressed here are his own.</span></em></p>The recent Port Hills fires highlight the increasing wildfire risks caused by climate change. Reducing the threat is going to take a shift in strategy, investment and community engagement.Nathanael Melia, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow – Climate Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226672024-02-06T13:28:37Z2024-02-06T13:28:37ZSelf-extinguishing batteries could reduce the risk of deadly and costly battery fires<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573199/original/file-20240203-17-od3sxj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C3%2C1270%2C674&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cutaway view of a Nissan Leaf electric vehicle showing part of its battery array (silver boxes).</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle_battery#/media/File:Nissan_Leaf_012.JPG">Tennen-gas/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01275-0">newly published study</a>, we describe our design for a self-extinguishing rechargeable battery. It replaces the most commonly used electrolyte, which is highly combustible – a medium composed of a lithium salt and an organic solvent – with materials found in a commercial fire extinguisher. </p>
<p>An electrolyte allows lithium ions that carry an electric charge to move across a separator between the positive and negative terminals of a lithium-ion battery. By modifying affordable commercial coolants to function as battery electrolytes, we were able to produce a battery that puts out its own fire.</p>
<p>Our electrolyte worked well across a wide temperature range, from about minus 100 to 175 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 75 to 80 degrees Celsius). Batteries that we produced in the lab with this electrolyte transferred heat away from the battery very well, and extinguished internal fires effectively. </p>
<p>We subjected these batteries to the nail penetration test, a common method for assessing lithium-ion battery safety. Driving a <a href="https://belltestchamber.com/why-do-we-need-to-do-the-nail-penetration-test.html">stainless steel nail through a charged battery</a> simulates an internal short circuit; if the battery catches fire, it fails the test. When we drove a nail through our charged batteries, they withstood the impact without catching fire.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Infographic showing the parts of lithium-ion battery" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">When a lithium-ion battery delivers energy to a device, lithium ions – atoms that carry an electrical charge – move from the anode to the cathode. The ions move in reverse when recharging.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/8Erh2x">Argonne National Laboratory/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
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<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>By nature, a battery’s temperature changes as it charges and discharges, due to <a href="https://data.energizer.com/pdfs/batteryir.pdf">internal resistance</a> – opposition within the battery to the flow of lithium ions. <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2023-07-13/how-a-heat-wave-will-hurt-your-ev-battery">High outdoor temperatures</a> or uneven temperatures within a battery pack seriously threaten batteries’ safety and durability. </p>
<p>Energy-dense batteries, such as the lithium-ion versions that are widely used in electronics and electric vehicles, contain an electrolyte formulation dominated by organic molecules that are highly flammable. This worsens the risk of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/thermal-runaway">thermal runaway</a> – an uncontrollable process in which excess heat inside a battery speeds up unwanted chemical reactions that release more heat, triggering further reactions. Temperatures inside the battery can rise by hundreds of degrees in a second, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHTlVmBbnPA&t=5s">causing a fire or explosion</a>.</p>
<p>Another safety concern arises when lithium-ion batteries are charged too quickly. This can cause chemical reactions that produce very sharp lithium needles called dendrites on the battery’s anode – the electrode with a negative charge. Eventually, the needles penetrate the separator and reach the other electrode, short-circuiting the battery internally and leading to overheating.</p>
<p>As scientists studying <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jCXInTYAAAAJ&hl=en">energy generation</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=KsW8rMMAAAAJ&hl=en">storage and conversion</a>, we have a strong interest in developing energy-dense and safe batteries. Replacing flammable electrolytes with a flame-retardant electrolyte has the potential to make lithium-ion batteries safer, and can buy time for longer-term improvements that reduce inherent risks of overheating and thermal runaway. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Lithium-ion battery fires in vehicles have become a major concern for firefighters because the batteries burn at very high temperatures for long periods.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>How we did our work</h2>
<p>We wanted to develop an electrolyte that was nonflammable, would readily transfer heat away from the battery pack, could function over a wide temperature range, was very durable, and would be compatible with any battery chemistry. However, most known nonflammable organic solvents contain fluorine and phosphorus, which are expensive and can have <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/science/phosphorus-and-water">harmful effects</a> <a href="https://www.stormwater.com/home/article/21146477/examining-the-impact-of-fluorine-on-soil-and-plant-health">on the environment</a>.</p>
<p>Instead, we focused on adapting affordable commercial coolants that already were widely used in fire extinguishers, electronic testing and cleaning applications, so that they could function as battery electrolytes. </p>
<p>We focused on a mature, safe and affordable commercial fluid called <a href="https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/p/d/b40044871/">Novec 7300</a>, which has low toxicity, is nonflammable and does not contribute to global warming. By combining this fluid with several other chemicals that added durability, we were able to produce an electrolyte that had the features we sought and would enable a battery to charge and discharge over a full year without losing significant capacity. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Standard lithium-ion batteries failing the nail penetration test.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>Because lithium – an alkali metal - is scarce in our Earth’s crust, it is important to investigate how well batteries that use other, more abundant alkali metal ions, such as potassium or sodium, fare in comparison. For this reason, our study focused predominantly on self-extinguishing potassium-ion batteries, although it also showed that our electrolyte works well for making self-extinguishing lithium-ion batteries. </p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether our electrolyte can work equally well for other types of batteries that are in development, such as <a href="https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/new-sodium-aluminum-battery-aims-integrate-renewables-grid-resiliency">sodium-ion, aluminum-ion</a> and <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/09/06/1079123/zinc-batteries-boost-eos/">zinc-ion</a> batteries. Our goal is to develop practical, environmentally friendly, sustainable batteries regardless of their ion type. </p>
<p>For now, however, since our alternative electrolyte has similar physical properties to currently used electrolytes, it can be readily integrated with current battery production lines. If the industry embraces it, we expect that companies will be able to manufacture nonflammable batteries using their existing lithium-ion battery facilities.</p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Apparao Rao receives funding from the R. A. Bowen Endowed Professorship funds at Clemson University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bingan Lu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lithium-ion battery fires are becoming increasingly common as electric vehicles spread, and are hard to extinguish. A new approach uses an electrolyte based on a commercial fire extinguisher.Apparao Rao, Professor of Physics, Clemson UniversityBingan Lu, Associate Professor of Physics and Electronics, Hunan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2169332023-11-13T21:21:44Z2023-11-13T21:21:44ZQuébec’s summer 2023 wildfires were the most devastating in 50 years. Is the worst yet to come?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557286/original/file-20231027-23-ya6je6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C2032%2C1066&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Forest fires were mostly started by lightning. Their spread was then exacerbated by a lack of precipitation and abnormally high temperatures.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Victor Danneyrolles)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After a summer of exceptional wildfires, the return of cooler temperatures and snowy conditions will provide Québec’s forests a brief respite. </p>
<p>But how long will it last? Are events like these <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/quebec-climate-change-wildfires-research-1.6943502">destined to become more frequent?</a></p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
<hr>
<p>As experts in disturbance dynamics occurring in the boreal environment, we are assessing the fires that occurred in Québec in 2023 to provide insights into their causes and consequences.</p>
<h2>Millions of hectares affected</h2>
<p>According to Québec’s <a href="https://sopfeu.qc.ca/en/">Société de protection des forêts contre le feu</a> (Society for the protection of forests against fire, SOPFEU), nearly 700 fires have burned approximately 5.1 million hectares (equivalent to the territory size of Costa Rica), both north and south of the northern forest limit designated by the province — or the boundary that separates northern Québec forests from the southern forests, where logging is conducted.</p>
<p>At the beginning of October, fifteen of the fires that had started in the summer were still active in western Québec. Three of them, although contained, had burned a total of almost 700,000 hectares within the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/canadian-province-of-quebec-looks-for-international-support-to-fight-over-160-wildfires">intensive protection zone</a>, where the SOPFEU systematically fights all fires. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://sopfeu.qc.ca/lintervention-de-la-sopfeu-dans-les-differentes-zones-de-protection/">northern zone</a>, twelve fires were still under surveillance, some not exceeding 20 hectares, others covering more than a million hectares. Out of the total area burned in 2023 in Québec, three-quarters (3.8 million hectares) were in the northern zone. South of the 50th parallel, within the intensive protection zone, approximately 1.4 million hectares burned, which is more than 80 times the annual average of the past ten years.</p>
<p>When we compare the 2023 fire season to <a href="https://www.donneesquebec.ca/recherche/dataset/feux-de-foret">datasets available since the 1970s</a>, it becomes quite clear that this year was unusual compared to recent decades. Yet, although these fires are impressive and difficult to contain, they are still within the range of “natural variability” observed in previous centuries.</p>
<p>Several <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22090">studies</a> have shown that particularly intense fire cycles were common in Québec during the period from 1910-1920. These were even more common in the 18th and 19th centuries when warm and dry climatic conditions were particularly conducive to forest fires.</p>
<h2>Exceptional weather conditions</h2>
<p>Like historic forest fires, fire outbreaks in Québec in 2023 were fuelled by <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/">intense weather conditions</a>. Starting in June, after an already dry month of May, a significant increase in fires was observed in the intensive protection zone. The northern zone was affected throughout the three summer months.</p>
<p>These fires were mainly started by lightning. Their spread was then exacerbated by low precipitation and abnormally high temperatures. <a href="https://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/climat/faits-saillants/2023/juin.htm">Temperatures exceeded the 1981-2010 average for the month of June by 2.3°C</a>, setting a record for the warmest June recorded in Québec in at least a hundred years.</p>
<p>These exceptional weather conditions were partly influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, a cyclical warming of the Pacific Ocean known for its impact on terrestrial weather conditions. The trend continued into July, which witnessed exceptionally high average temperatures, well above normal (+2.7°C).</p>
<h2>Multiple consequences</h2>
<p>The simultaneous outbreak of numerous fires and their rapid spread have had multiple effects on wildlife, forests, the climate, and human populations.</p>
<p>The fires have altered the structure and composition of vegetation, causing disruption to wildlife habitats as well as <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-wildfires-destabilize-quebec-wildlife-1.6867744">displacement and mortality among animals</a>. As a result, the hunting, fishing and harvesting territories of Indigenous communities have been affected.</p>
<p>In addition to representing a direct threat to public safety, the smoke from the fires caused respiratory problems, leading to <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9791853/quebec-wildfires-more-evacuations-ordered/">the evacuation of thousands of people in several regions of Québec</a>. The deterioration in air quality was felt not only across Canada and the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65828469">United States</a>, but also as far as <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/nasa-quebec-fire-smoke-europe-1.6890108">Europe</a>. Fortunately, evacuations were carried out in time, and casualties were avoided. However, there was some material damage.</p>
<p>In terms of their impact on the climate, large fires released several megatons of carbon dioxide stored in trees and soils, <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/er-2013-0062">contributing to an increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases</a> (CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>).</p>
<p>While the fires have had significant consequences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/forest-fires-north-americas-boreal-forests-are-burning-a-lot-but-less-than-150-years-ago-201365">they can sometimes be beneficial for certain organisms</a>. We can consider tree species like jack pine, which depend on fires for regeneration, and numerous animal species that thrive in burned forests.</p>
<h2>What can we expect in the future?</h2>
<p>Québec’s forests have been burning and regenerating cyclically for millennia. However, it is imperative to recognize that these cycles can evolve over time.</p>
<p>The 2023 fire season highlights the urgency of preparing for significant changes in disturbance dynamics, including the possibility of such events recurring more frequently.</p>
<p>As climate change progresses, periods of drought could become more frequent if precipitation fails to compensate for rising temperatures, as observed in the 20th century.</p>
<p>This combination of factors increases the likelihood of an increase in the number, size, and intensity of wildfires.</p>
<p>Such changes threaten the natural regeneration of forests and could lead to the formation of treeless areas, victims of too frequent fires <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2024872118">for vegetation to have time to regenerate</a>.</p>
<p>These conditions could also be exacerbated by the continued expansion of logging. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-as-canadas-boreal-forests-burn-again-and-again-they-wont-grow-back-the/">Preliminary analyses</a> have shown that more than 300,000 hectares of forests burned in 2023 may not regenerate, mainly due to the effects of logging in recent decades.</p>
<p>The consequences of major forest fires highlight the climate challenges we face. They demonstrate the need to develop mitigation and adaptation measures aimed at protecting vulnerable forest ecosystems and their inhabitants.</p>
<p>It is therefore imperative to learn lessons from the 2023 fire season to strengthen the resilience of forests and communities to climate change and limit damages caused by fires. This involves reducing risk, protecting the most vulnerable areas, and raising awareness among local populations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216933/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yves Bergeron received funding from FRQNT, NSERC and MNRF.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorian M. Gaboriau, Jonathan Lesven et Victor Danneyrolles ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>The forest fires of the summer of 2023 in Québec were devastating. It was the worst year in 50 years. But with climate change, the worst may be yet to come.Dorian M. Gaboriau, Postdoctorant en paléoécologie, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Jonathan Lesven, Doctorant en paléoécologie, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Victor Danneyrolles, Professeur-chercheur en écologie forestière, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Yves Bergeron, Professeur écologie et aménagement forestier, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2152212023-10-17T09:24:28Z2023-10-17T09:24:28ZWhat 2,500 years of wildfire evidence and the extreme fire seasons of 1910 and 2020 tell us about the future of fire in the West<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553881/original/file-20231015-29-pxqkiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=84%2C333%2C3611%2C2357&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rocky Mountain fires leave telltale ash layers in nearby lakes like this one.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Philip Higuera</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Strong winds blew across mountain slopes after a record-setting warm, dry summer. Small fires began to blow up into huge conflagrations. Towns in crisis scrambled to escape as fires bore down. </p>
<p>This could describe any number of recent events, in places as disparate as <a href="https://www.cpr.org/2021/01/25/colorados-east-troublesome-wildfire-may-signal-a-new-era-of-big-fire-blow-ups/">Colorado</a>, <a href="https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2021/02/new-timeline-deadliest-california-wildfire-could-guide-lifesaving-research">California</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-june-30-2021-1.6085919">Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/08/13/maui-wildfire-started-spread/">Hawaii</a>. But this fire disaster happened over 110 years ago in the Northern Rocky Mountains of Idaho and Montana.</p>
<p>The “<a href="https://www.pbs.org/video/american-experience-big-burn/">Big Burn</a>” of 1910 still holds the record for the largest fire season in the Northern Rockies. Hundreds of fires burned over 3 million acres – roughly the size of Connecticut – most in just two days. The fires destroyed towns, killed 86 people and galvanized public policies committed to putting out every fire.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white photo from 1910 shows rail lines and the burned shells of buildings" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many residents of Wallace, Idaho, fled on trains ahead of the 1910 blaze. Volunteers who stayed saved part of the town, but about a third of it burned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/fsnorthernregion/4929826527/in/album-72157624814120716/">R.H. McKay/U.S. Forest Service archive</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, as the climate warms, fire seasons like in 1910 are becoming more likely. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15388">2020 fire season</a> was an example. But are extreme fire seasons like these really that unusual in the context of history? And, when fire activity begins to surpass anything experienced in thousands of years – as research suggests is happening in the Southern Rockies – what will happen to the forests?</p>
<p>As paleoecologists, we study how and why ecosystems changed in the past. In a multiyear project, highlighted in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acee16">two new</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.14201">publications</a>, we tracked how often forest fires occurred in high-elevation forests in the Rocky Mountains over the past 2,500 years, how those fires varied with the climate and how they affected ecosystems. This long view provides both hopeful and concerning lessons for making sense of today’s extreme fire events and impacts on forests.</p>
<h2>Lakes record history going back millennia</h2>
<p>When a high-elevation forest burns, fires consume tree needles and small branches, killing most trees and lofting charcoal in the air. Some of that charcoal lands on lakes and sinks to the bottom, where it is preserved in layers as sediment accumulates. </p>
<p>After the fire, trees regrow and also leave evidence of their existence in the form of pollen grains that fall on the lake and sink to the bottom.</p>
<p>By <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DixyJZCvVQ">extracting a tube</a> of those lake sediments, like a straw pushed into a layer cake from above, we were able to measure the amounts of charcoal and pollen in each layer and reconstruct the history of fire and forest recovery around a dozen lakes across the footprint of the 1910 fires.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman sitting an inflatable boat, wearing a life jacket, holds a long tube filed with lake bottom sediment." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Author Kyra Clark-Wolf holds a sediment core pulled from a lake containing evidence of fires over thousands of years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Philip Higuera</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Long tubes of lake floor sediment are opened on a table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers at the University of Montana examine a sediment core from a high-elevation lake in the Rocky Mountains. Each core is sliced into half-centimeter sections, reflecting around 10 years each, and variations in charcoal within the core are used to reconstruct a timeline of past wildfires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Montana</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons from Rockies’ long history with fire</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.14201">lake sediments revealed</a> that high-elevation, or subalpine, forests in the Northern Rockies in Montana and Idaho have consistently bounced back after fires, even during periods of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2022.17">drier climate</a> and more frequent burning than we saw in the 20th century.</p>
<p>High-elevation forests only burn about once <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/subalpine-forest">every 100 to 250 or more years</a> on average. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acee16">We found</a> that the amount of burning in subalpine forests of the Northern Rockies over the 20th and 21st centuries remained within the bounds of what those forests experienced over the previous 2,500 years. Even today, the Northern Rockies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121283">show resilience to wildfires</a>, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120487">early signs of recovery</a> after extensive fires <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/fire1010017">in 2017</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three illustrated charts show forest density increasing and time between fires falling over the past 4,800 years at one location." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Long-term changes in climate, forest density and fire frequency over the past 4,800 years in one high-elevation forest in the Northern Rockies, reconstructed from lake sediments. The red dots reflect timing of past fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kyra Clark-Wolf</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2103135118">similar research</a> in high-elevation forests of the Southern Rockies in Colorado and Wyoming tells a different story.</p>
<p>The record-setting 2020 fire season, with <a href="https://dfpc.colorado.gov/sections/wildfire-information-center/historical-wildfire-information">three of Colorado’s largest fires</a>, helped push the rate of burning in high-elevation forests in Colorado and Wyoming into <a href="https://theconversation.com/rocky-mountain-forests-burning-more-now-than-any-time-in-the-past-2-000-years-162383">uncharted territory</a> relative to the past 2,000 years.</p>
<p>Climate change is also having bigger impacts on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wests-iconic-forests-are-increasingly-struggling-to-recover-from-wildfires-altering-how-fires-burn-could-boost-their-chances-200668">whether and how forests recover after wildfires</a> in warmer, drier regions of the West, including the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13174">Southern Rockies</a>, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2208120120">Southwest and California</a>. When fires are followed by especially warm, dry summers, seedlings can’t establish and forests struggle to regenerate. In some places, shrubby or grassy vegetation replace trees altogether.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graphs show fire activity rising with temperature over time." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fire history reconstructions from 20 high-elevation lakes in the Southern Rockies show that historically, fires burned every 230 years on average. That has increased significantly in the 21st century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theconversation.com/rocky-mountain-forests-burning-more-now-than-any-time-in-the-past-2-000-years-162383">Philip Higuera</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Changes happening now in the Southern Rockies could serve as an early warning for what to expect further down the road in the Northern Rockies.</p>
<h2>Warmer climate, greater fire activity, higher risks</h2>
<p>Looking back thousands of years, it’s hard to ignore the consistent links between the climate and the prevalence of wildfires.</p>
<p>Warmer, drier springs and summers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00299-0">load the dice</a> to make extensive fire seasons more likely. This was the case <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127563">in 1910</a> in the Northern Rockies and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15388">in 2020</a> in the Southern Rockies. </p>
<p>When, where and how climate change will push the rate of burning in the rest of the Rockies into uncharted territory is harder to anticipate. The difference between 1910 and 2020 was that 1910 was followed by decades with low fire activity, whereas 2020 was part of an overall trend of increasing fire activity linked with global warming. Just one fire like 1910’s Big Burn in the coming decades, in the context of 21st-century fire activity, would push the Northern Rockies beyond any known records.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A tiny pine seedling in a vast landscape of burned trees and soil." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A lodgepole pine tree seedling begins to grow one year after the October 2020 East Troublesome Fire in Rocky Mountain National Park. Recovery in high-elevation forests takes decades.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Philip Higuera</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons from the long view</h2>
<p>The clock is ticking. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13496">Extreme wildfires will become more and more likely</a> as the climate warms, and it will be <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wests-iconic-forests-are-increasingly-struggling-to-recover-from-wildfires-altering-how-fires-burn-could-boost-their-chances-200668">harder for forests to recover</a>. Human activity is also raising the risk of fires starting.</p>
<p>The Big Burn of 1910 left a lasting impression because of the devastating impacts on lives and homes and, <a href="https://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/2022/06/03/east-troublesome-fire-cause-colorado-arapaho-national-forest/7506191001/">as in the 2020 fire season</a> and many other recent fire disasters, because of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">role humans played</a> in igniting them.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Photo shows burned trees across miles of hillsides along a railroad line" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The aftermath of the 1910 fire near the North Fork of the St. Joe River in the Coeur d’Alene National Forest, Idaho.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/fsnorthernregion/4929815653/in/album-72157624814120716/">R.H. McCoy/U.S. Forest Service archive</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Accidental ignitions – from downed power lines, escaped campfires, dragging chains, railroads – expand <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114">when and where fires occur</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/western-wildfires-destroyed-246-more-homes-and-buildings-over-the-past-decade-fire-scientists-explain-whats-changing-197384">they lead to the majority of homes lost to fires</a>. The fire that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/11/business/maui-fire-residential-damage-preliminary-estimate/index.html">destroyed Lahaina, Hawaii</a>, is the most recent example.</p>
<h2>So what can we do?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.unep.org/interactive/six-sector-solution-climate-change/">Curbing greenhouse gas emissions</a> from vehicles, power plants and other sources can help slow warming and the impacts of climate change on wildfires, ecosystems and communities. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-is-spending-billions-to-reduce-forest-fire-risks-we-mapped-the-hot-spots-where-treatment-offers-the-biggest-payoff-for-people-and-climate-210051">Forest thinning and prescribed burns</a> can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2433">alter how forests burn</a>, protecting humans and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wests-iconic-forests-are-increasingly-struggling-to-recover-from-wildfires-altering-how-fires-burn-could-boost-their-chances-200668">minimizing the most severe ecological impacts</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5c0c">Reframing the challenge of living with wildfire</a> – building with fire-resistant materials, reducing accidental ignitions and increasing preparedness for extreme events – can <a href="https://theconversation.com/well-see-more-fire-seasons-like-2020-heres-a-strategy-for-managing-our-nations-flammable-landscapes-149323">help minimize damage</a> while maintaining the critical role that fires have played in forests across the Rocky Mountains for millennia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kyra Clark-Wolf has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the Joint Fire Science Program</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Higuera receives funding from the National Science Foundation, United States Geological Survey, and Joint Fire Science Program.</span></em></p>As the climate warms, devastating fires are increasingly likely. The 2020 fires pushed the Southern Rockies beyond the historical average. Is there hope for the Northern Rockies?Kyra Clark-Wolf, Postdoctoral Associate in Ecology, University of Colorado BoulderPhilip Higuera, Professor of Fire Ecology, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145772023-10-02T19:12:09Z2023-10-02T19:12:09ZFire authorities are better prepared for this summer. The question now is – are you?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551324/original/file-20231002-15-d4sb4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4281%2C2848&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last year, campers had to evacuate <a href="https://www.thegreynomads.com.au/caves-2/">because of floods</a>. This year, they’re evacuating because of fire. Over Victoria’s long weekend, campers and residents in Gippsland had to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-01/gippsland-fires-burn-briagolong-loch-sport-erica/102922014">flee fast-moving fires</a>, driven by high winds. </p>
<p>The megafires of the 2019–2020 Black Summer came off the back of an earlier El Niño climate cycle. Now, after three years of rain and floods, El Niño is arriving on Australian shores again. With it comes fire weather – hot, dry and windy. </p>
<p>The question is – <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2023/09/30/climate-change-and-the-fire-season-ahead#mtr">are we ready?</a> </p>
<p>Last week, emergency management minister Murray Watt moved to reassure an anxious country. “Australia is much better prepared for this season than we were heading into Black Summer,” he said, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-24/australia-better-prepared-for-bushfire-threat-than-black-summer/102895018">speaking after</a> a national summit on disaster preparedness. </p>
<p>Yes, authorities are better prepared. But by and large, we as individuals are not. Far too often, Australians think it’s the job of the authorities to be ready, which breeds a false sense of security. </p>
<h2>This fire season may pack a punch</h2>
<p>The Black Summer bushfires of the 2019–20 summer were a stark reminder of how fire prone Australia is. But they were more than that – they <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">were not normal</a>. Around 20% of all of our forests went up in flame. </p>
<p>2019 was the <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2019-2019-was-australias-hottest-and-driest-year-on-record/#:%7E:text=Last%20year%20was%20Australia's%20hottest,are%20the%20worst%20on%20record.">hottest and driest</a> year on record for Australia. But 2023 <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/01/australia-records-warmest-winter-caused-by-global-heating-and-sunny-conditions">may break that record</a>, as climate records topple around the world and extreme weather events multiply. This year is likely to be the hottest on record globally, and next year the record <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-the-return-of-el-nino-means/#:%7E:text=Looking%20ahead%20%E2%80%93%20with%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o,above%20the%20pre%2Dindustrial%20average">may well fall again</a>. </p>
<p>Sustained rain from three successive La Niña years has driven widespread vegetation growth across Australia’s 125 million hectares of forest, bush and grasslands. Over the coming weeks, many areas could dry out quickly and become tinder for bushfires. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-about-heat-and-fire-this-summer-heres-how-to-prepare-212443">Worried about heat and fire this summer? Here's how to prepare</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Climate cycles do give us time to prepare</h2>
<p>Australia’s wet-dry climate cycles have one benefit – during wet years, fire authorities get a reprieve. That lets governments, emergency services and the community <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-22/bushfire-royal-commission-revisited-after-el-nino-weather/102880144">coordinate, plan and prepare</a> for bushfire seasons ahead. </p>
<p>That’s why Minister Watt can accurately claim Australia is better prepared. The capacity and capability of our emergency services to predict the spread of fires and issue timely warnings to communities is better than it has ever been. In planning and preparedness for natural hazards such as bushfires and floods, we have seen <a href="https://nema.gov.au/about-us/media-centre/Preparedness-Summit-250923">better integration</a> between government, emergency services, civil and private sector organisations.</p>
<p>Planned burning is still a challenge. It’s tough to find the right weather conditions to burn off fuel loads at low intensity, without risking the blaze spreading or threatening property. </p>
<p>But these burns are done much more <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2020-searching-for-objectivity-in-burning/">strategically these days</a>. Rather than simply aim to hit a target of hectares burned, authorities are now focused on burning fuel in areas where it could endanger lives and damage critical infrastructure during bushfire season.</p>
<p>These advances give us good reason for confidence. But not for complacency. </p>
<p>Every bushfire is unique. And our fires are, by and large, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27225-4">getting worse</a>. It would be an error to think our investment in <a href="https://reporter.anu.edu.au/all-stories/fighting-fires-from-space-how-satellites-and-other-tech-could-prevent-catastrophic-bushfires">smoke-detecting algorithms and satellite monitoring</a> and the development of the new <a href="https://afdrs.com.au/">Australian Fire Danger Rating System</a> will spare Australia from the loss of life, property and environmental destruction observed during the Black Summer fires. </p>
<p>Why? Decades of bushfires have shown even the best preparation can be found wanting on days of severe bushfire danger when firestorms can develop quickly and behave unpredictably.</p>
<h2>For Australia to be ready, you need to be ready</h2>
<p>While megafires happen – and draw the most headlines – most bushfires are local rather than national events. </p>
<p>That means we must prepare at a local level.</p>
<p>If you’re faced with a bushfire threat, you have only <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8500.12592">two options</a>. </p>
<p>You can stay and defend your property – as long as you are physically and mentally prepared, have adequate firefighting resources, and your property is prepared and defensible. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-regimes-around-australia-shifted-abruptly-20-years-ago-and-falling-humidity-is-why-209689">Fire regimes around Australia shifted abruptly 20 years ago – and falling humidity is why</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Or you can leave early, which means making a judgement call about the best time to go in a calm manner. That doesn’t mean panic – if there is time, it can be possible to do things like clear fuels from around the home and dampen the surrounds to give your house a better chance of surviving undefended.</p>
<p>Which should you choose? It depends, in part, on where you live and your personal circumstances. Remember too that most Australians will never experience a bushfire firsthand. </p>
<p>Every community has a different risk profile and people and communities vary considerably in their levels of preparedness and planning. </p>
<p>If a fire does start and head towards your house, you could be taken entirely by surprise if you have no bushfire plan. </p>
<p>To be clear, this is arguably the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-prepare-your-home-for-a-bushfire-and-when-to-leave-50962#:%7E:text=Under%20Catastrophic%20fire%20conditions%20all,of%20bushfires%20and%20their%20unpredictability.">largest gap</a> in Australia’s fire preparedness. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5551%2C3650&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="burned forest near road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5551%2C3650&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Which way out? Planning ahead could save your life.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Planning is easy – if done ahead</h2>
<p>The question of whether Australia is ready for the fire season should be reframed. The better question is: are Australians ready? </p>
<p>The good news is, it’s easier than you think to make a fire plan. As a household, it might take just 10 minutes. Your state or territory government has a website showing you how: </p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/before-and-during-a-fire/your-bushfire-plan">Victoria</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/resources/bush-fire-survival-plan">New South Wales</a></li>
<li><a href="https://bushfire-survival-plan.qfes.qld.gov.au/">Queensland</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/plan-prepare/before-a-fire-be-prepared/make-a-plan/5-minute-bushfire-plan/">South Australia</a></li>
<li><a href="https://mybushfireplan.wa.gov.au/">Western Australia</a></li>
<li><a href="https://esa.act.gov.au/cbr-be-emergency-ready/bushfires/bushfire-ready">Australian Capital Territory</a></li>
<li><a href="https://securent.nt.gov.au/prepare-for-an-emergency/fires/bushfires/survival-plans">Northern Territory</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fire.tas.gov.au/Show?pageId=colbushfirePrepareActSurvive&fbclid=IwAR1mRkwm89K_SlAnUXUm0LYwAQ7Hc8moJ7c9AoNgkmdPVDxxIPx7WMLJzvk">Tasmania</a></li>
</ul>
<p>Why plan ahead? Because it is vastly better to have a clear plan at your fingertips rather than frantically trying to figure out where your loved ones are, whether it’s too late to leave and whether you could realistically fight the fire – when the fire is on your doorstep. Faced by the reality of fire, many of us can freeze. </p>
<p>What firefighters <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-can-still-picture-the-faces-black-saturday-firefighters-want-you-to-listen-to-them-not-call-them-heroes-128632">want us to learn</a> is that the critical decisions and actions which save lives and property in a bushfire are taken by us and our communities, not by politicians or agencies. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">Australia's Black Summer of fire was not normal – and we can prove it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>John Schauble contributed significantly to this article. He has worked extensively in bushfire policy and research at state level and has volunteered for over 40 years as a firefighter.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214577/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graham Dwyer receives funding from Natural Hazards Research Australia and the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Many people are asking if Australian authorities are ready for the fire season. The real question to ask is – are we ready as individuals?Graham Dwyer, Course Director, Centre for Social Impact, Swinburne University of Technology, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093592023-09-26T12:24:07Z2023-09-26T12:24:07ZLithium-ion battery fires are a growing public safety concern − here’s how to reduce the risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549853/original/file-20230924-31-w9syu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C35%2C5973%2C3952&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In June 2023, a fire started at this e-bike shop in New York City and spread to upper floors of the building.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EBikeBatteriesFires/832138180d9d4e699f17a2629753f9fd/photo">AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In today’s electronic age, rechargeable lithium-ion batteries are ubiquitous. Compared with the lead-acid versions that have dominated the battery market for decades, lithium-ion batteries can charge faster and store more energy for the same amount of weight.</p>
<p>These devices make our electronic gadgets and electric cars lighter and longer-lasting – but they also have disadvantages. They contain a lot of energy, and if they catch fire, they burn until all of that stored energy is released. A sudden release of huge amounts of energy can lead to explosions that threaten lives and property.</p>
<p>As scientists who study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jCXInTYAAAAJ&hl=en">energy generation</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=KsW8rMMAAAAJ&hl=en">storage</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=z7C3_h8AAAAJ&hl=en">conversion</a>, and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4WwXknoAAAAJ&hl=en">automotive engineering</a>, we have a strong interest in the development of batteries that are energy-dense and safe. And we see encouraging signs that battery manufacturers are making progress toward solving this significant technical problem.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yRPW8zN_c0E?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Avoiding overcharging is one way to reduce the risk of lithium-ion battery fires.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A new fire hazard</h2>
<p>Urban transportation is undergoing a transformative shift toward electrification. As concerns grow in cities around the world about climate change and air quality, <a href="https://theconversation.com/boosting-ev-market-share-to-67-of-us-car-sales-is-a-huge-leap-but-automakers-can-meet-epas-tough-new-standards-203663">electric vehicles</a> have taken center stage. </p>
<p>At the same time, e-bikes and electric scooters are transforming urban transit by providing convenient, low-carbon ways to navigate crowded streets and reduce traffic congestion. From 2010 through 2022, shared e-bikes and e-scooters – those owned by rental networks – accounted for <a href="https://nacto.org/2022/12/01/half-a-billion-rides-on-shared-bikes-and-scooters/">more than half a billion trips</a> in U.S. cities. Privately owned e-bikes add to that total: In 2021, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/electric-bike-sustainable-transportation">more than 880,000 e-bikes were sold in the U.S.</a>, compared with 608,000 electric cars and trucks. </p>
<p>Battery-powered vehicles account for <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2023/1/17/23470878/tesla-fires-evs-florida-hurricane-batteries-lithium-ion">a small share</a> of car fires, but <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lithium-ion-battery-fires-electric-cars-bikes-scooters-firefighters/">controlling EV fires is difficult</a>. Typically, an EV fire burns at roughly 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit (2,760 Celsius), while a gasoline-powered vehicle on fire burns at 1,500 F (815 C). It takes about 2,000 gallons of water to extinguish a burning gasoline-powered vehicle; putting out an EV fire can take <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/01/20/metro/tesla-fire-takes-over-two-hours-20000-gallons-water-extinguish-after-wakefield-crash-police-say/">10 times more</a>.</p>
<p>This is a major concern in large cities where electric vehicles are popular. Fire departments in New York City and San Francisco report handling <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lithium-ion-battery-fires-electric-cars-bikes-scooters-firefighters/">more than 660 fires</a> involving lithium-ion batteries since 2019. In New York City, these fires caused <a href="https://www.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/195-23/mayor-adams-plan-combat-lithium-ion-battery-fires-promote-safe-electric-micromobility#/0">12 deaths and more than 260 injuries</a> from 2021 through early 2023. Clearly, there is a need for safer handling and charging practices, as well as technical improvements to batteries.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549854/original/file-20230924-27-qr7gss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An e-bike with an Uber Eats bag hanging from the handlebars leans against a building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549854/original/file-20230924-27-qr7gss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549854/original/file-20230924-27-qr7gss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549854/original/file-20230924-27-qr7gss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549854/original/file-20230924-27-qr7gss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549854/original/file-20230924-27-qr7gss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549854/original/file-20230924-27-qr7gss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549854/original/file-20230924-27-qr7gss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">E-bikes are popular for urban delivery services, which means that many users rely on them for income.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/uber-eats-electric-bike-parked-on-sidewalk-manhattan-new-news-photo/1428511600">Lindsey Nicholson/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Many batteries in an EV</h2>
<p>To understand lithium-ion battery fires, it’s important to know some basics. A battery holds chemicals that contain energy, with a separator between its positive and negative electrodes. It works by <a href="https://engineering.mit.edu/engage/ask-an-engineer/how-does-a-battery-work/">converting this energy into electricity</a>.</p>
<p>The two electrodes in a battery are surrounded by an electrolyte – a substance that allows an electrical charge to flow between the two terminals. In a lithium-ion battery, for example, lithium ions carry the electric charge. When a device is connected to a battery, chemical reactions take place on the electrodes and create a flow of electrons in the external circuit that powers the device.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Infographic showing the parts of lithium-ion battery" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549855/original/file-20230924-27-91vn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When a lithium-ion battery delivers energy to a device, lithium ions – atoms that carry an electrical charge – move from the anode to the cathode. The ions move in reverse when recharging.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/8Erh2x">Argonne National Laboratory/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cellphones and digital cameras can operate on a single battery, but an electric car needs much more energy and power. Depending on its design, an EV may contain <a href="https://www.samsungsdi.com/column/all/detail/54344.html">dozens to thousands of single batteries</a>, which are known as cells. Cells are clustered together in sets called modules, which in turn are assembled together in packs. A standard EV will contain one large battery pack with many cells inside it.</p>
<h2>What causes battery fires</h2>
<p>Typically, a battery fire <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41557-023-01254-6">starts in a single cell</a> inside a larger battery pack. There are three main reasons for a battery to ignite: mechanical harm, such as crushing or penetration when vehicles collide; electrical harm from an external or internal <a href="https://www.thespruce.com/what-causes-short-circuits-4118973">short circuit</a>; or overheating. </p>
<p>Battery short circuits may be caused by faulty external handling or unwanted chemical reactions within the battery cell. When lithium-ion batteries are charged too quickly, chemical reactions can produce very sharp lithium needles called dendrites on the battery’s anode – the electrode with a negative charge. Eventually, they penetrate the separator and reach the other electrode, short-circuiting the battery internally. </p>
<p>Such short circuits heat the battery cell to over 212 F (100 C). The battery’s temperature rises slowly at first and then all at once, spiking to its peak temperature in about one second. </p>
<p>Another factor that makes lithium-ion battery fires challenging to handle is oxygen generation. When the metal oxides in a battery’s cathode, or positively charged electrode, are heated, they <a href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1526722">decompose and release oxygen gas</a>. Fires need oxygen to burn, so a battery that can create oxygen can sustain a fire. </p>
<p>Because of the electrolyte’s nature, a 20% increase in a lithium-ion battery’s temperature causes some unwanted chemical reactions to occur much faster, which releases excessive heat. This excess heat increases the battery temperature, which in turn speeds up the reactions. The increased battery temperature increases the reaction rate, creating a process called <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/first-xray-views-into-overheating-lithiumion-batteries">thermal runaway</a>. When this happens, the temperature in a battery can rise from 212 F (100 C) to 1,800 F (1000 C) in a second. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">In thermal runaway, a lithium-ion battery enters an uncontrollable, self-heating state that can lead to fire or explosion.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Managing the thermal runaway problem</h2>
<p>Methods to ensure battery safety can focus on conditions outside or inside of the battery. External protection typically involves using electronic devices, like temperature sensors and pressure valves, to ensure that the battery isn’t subjected to heat or force that could cause an accident.</p>
<p>However, these mechanisms make the battery larger and heavier, which can reduce the performance of the device it powers. And they may not be reliable under extreme temperatures or pressures, such as those produced in a car crash.</p>
<p>Internal protection strategies focus on using intrinsically safe materials for battery components. This approach offers an opportunity to address potential hazards at their source.</p>
<p>Making a thermal runaway in a battery pack less intense requires a mix of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ensm.2017.05.013">software and hardware improvements</a>. Scientists are working to develop cathodes that release less oxygen when they break down; nonflammable electrolytes; <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40820-023-01178-3">solid-state electrolytes</a>, which do not catch fire and also may help alleviate dendrite growth; and separators that can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/adma.202302280">withstand high temperatures without melting</a>. </p>
<p>Another solution is already in use: <a href="https://www.synopsys.com/glossary/what-is-a-battery-management-system.html">battery management systems</a>. These are hardware and software packages built into battery packs that can monitor vital battery parameters, such as the state of charge, internal pressure and the temperature of the cells in the battery pack. </p>
<p>Just as a physician uses a patient’s symptoms to diagnose and treat their illness, battery management systems can diagnose conditions within the battery pack and make autonomous decisions to shut off batteries with hot spots, or to alter the load distribution so that any individual battery does not get too hot. </p>
<p>Battery chemistries are evolving rapidly, so new designs will require new battery management systems. Many battery producers are <a href="https://www.graphene-info.com/nanotech-energy-soteria-battery-innovation-group-and-voltaplex-energy-join">forming partnerships</a> that bring together manufacturers with complementary battery expertise to tackle this challenge. </p>
<p>Users can also take steps to <a href="https://www.usfa.fema.gov/prevention/vehicle-fires/electric-vehicles/">maximize safety</a>. Use manufacturer-recommended charging equipment and outlets, and avoid overcharging or leaving an EV plugged in overnight. Inspect the battery regularly for signs of damage or overheating. Park the vehicle <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2023-07-13/how-a-heat-wave-will-hurt-your-ev-battery">away from extremely hot or cold surroundings</a> – for example, park in shade during heat waves – to prevent thermal stress on the battery. </p>
<p>Finally, in the event of a collision or accident involving an EV, follow the manufacturer’s safety protocols and disconnect the battery if possible to minimize the risk of fire or electrocution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209359/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lithium-ion batteries power many electric cars, bikes and scooters. When they are damaged or overheated, they can ignite or explode. Four engineers explain how to handle these devices safely.Apparao Rao, Professor of Physics, Clemson UniversityBingan Lu, Associate Professor of Physics and Electronics, Hunan UniversityMihir Parekh, Postdoctoral Fellow in Physics and Astronomy, Clemson UniversityMorteza Sabet, Research Assistant Professor of Automotive Engineering, Clemson UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2134682023-09-15T03:11:55Z2023-09-15T03:11:55ZElectric vehicle fires are very rare. The risk for petrol and diesel vehicles is at least 20 times higher<p>Two electric vehicle fires have been reported in Australia this week. Five cars were destroyed after a lithium battery <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-12/sydney-airport-lithium-ion-battery-causes-fire/102846146">ignited</a> in a car parked at Sydney Airport on Monday. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/12/five-cars-destroyed-at-sydney-airport-after-luxury-electric-vehicles-battery-ignites">Firefighters believed</a> the battery had been detached from the car because it was damaged.</p>
<p>On the same day, another vehicle <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-14/ev-lithium-battery-fires-what-you-need-to-know/102851442">caught fire</a> after it hit debris on a road near Penrose in the New South Wales southern highlands. It’s believed the <a href="https://www.southernhighlandnews.com.au/story/8348092/watch-this-tesla-electric-car-fire-caused-by-road-debris/">debris</a> pierced the <a href="https://www.thecarexpert.co.uk/are-electric-car-fires-really-that-common/">battery pack</a>, starting a fire.</p>
<p>Despite these incidents, electric vehicle battery fires are rare. Indeed, the available data indicate the fire risk is between 20 and 80 times greater for petrol and diesel vehicles. Fire risks are also greater for electric scooters and electric bikes. </p>
<p>However, battery fires do pose particular problems, which I’ll discuss later.</p>
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<h2>How common are these fires?</h2>
<p>Australian firm <a href="https://www.evfiresafe.com/">EV FireSafe</a> tracks passenger electric vehicle battery fires worldwide. From 2010 to June 2023, its database records only <a href="https://www.evfiresafe.com/_files/ugd/8b9ad1_01aa449ee5074086a55cb42aa7603f40.pdf">393</a> verified fires globally, out of some 30 million electric vehicles <a href="https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter4/transportation-sustainability-decarbonization/global-electric-vehicles-sales/#:%7E:text=Before%202010%2C%20electric%20vehicles%20were,for%2014%25%20of%20global%20sales.">on the road</a>. </p>
<p>Australia recorded only <a href="https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/ev-battery-fires-are-rare-but-on-australian-governments-agenda">four</a> electric vehicle battery fires over the same period. One was linked to arson. The other three vehicles were parked in structures that burned down and destroyed the vehicles. So it appears these fires didn’t start in the batteries.</p>
<p>But electric vehicle numbers in Australia <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-adoption-of-electric-vehicles-has-been-maddeningly-slow-but-were-well-placed-to-catch-up-fast-203923">were low</a> during this 13-year period. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-adoption-of-electric-vehicles-has-been-maddeningly-slow-but-were-well-placed-to-catch-up-fast-203923">Australia’s adoption of electric vehicles has been maddeningly slow, but we’re well placed to catch up fast</a>
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<h2>Are the risks higher than for petrol or diesel cars?</h2>
<p>As electric vehicle <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-adoption-of-electric-vehicles-has-been-maddeningly-slow-but-were-well-placed-to-catch-up-fast-203923">numbers grow</a>, this week’s reports might lead some people to fear fire risks will increase. However, data for the past 13 years suggest quite the opposite is true as electric vehicles replace petrol and diesel vehicles.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.msb.se/sv/aktuellt/nyheter/2023/maj/brander-i-eltransportmedel-under-2022/?ref=warpnews.org">May 2023 report</a> by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency found vehicles powered by internal combustion engines were <a href="https://thedriven.io/2023/05/16/petrol-and-diesel-cars-20-times-more-likely-to-catch-fire-than-evs/">20 times more likely</a> to catch fire than electric vehicles in Sweden. </p>
<p>Sweden recorded 106 fires in various electrified modes of transport in 2022. More than half were in e-scooters (38) and e-bikes (20). Out of Sweden’s 611,000 electric vehicles, 23 fires (0.004%) were reported. The fleet of 4.4 million petrol and diesel vehicles recorded 3,400 fires (0.08%).</p>
<p>Globally, <a href="https://www.evfiresafe.com/ev-fire-faqs">EV FireSafe</a> found about 0.0012% of electric passenger vehicles caught fire from 2010 to 2023. While it was difficult to find similar global statistics for petrol and diesel vehicles, EV Firesafe used a range of country reports and found a much higher 0.1% risk of catching fire. That’s more than 80 times the rate EV Firesafe found for electric vehicles.</p>
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<p>As well as 393 verified fires worldwide, the EV Firesafe <a href="https://www.evfiresafe.com/_files/ugd/8b9ad1_01aa449ee5074086a55cb42aa7603f40.pdf">database</a> includes 74 incidents that are being investigated and 21 that have not been verified.</p>
<p>A 2020 <a href="https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2020-tesla-impact-report.pdf">Tesla</a> internal report (not verified independently) suggested there was one <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-electric-cars-less-likely-to-catch-fire-than-internal-combustion-alternatives-report/">Tesla</a> fire for every 205 million miles (330 million kilometres) travelled. The Tesla report notes National Fire Protection Association data for the United States showed a much higher rate of one fire for every 19 million miles (30.6 million kilometres). </p>
<p>We still have limited data on fire risk in electric vehicles, most of which are relatively new. More statistically reliable comparisons require more data over much longer time frames.</p>
<h2>What causes electric vehicle fires?</h2>
<p>Electric vehicle battery packs store a lot of energy in a very small space. When damaged, an internal short circuit triggers a chain reaction called <a href="https://www.evfiresafe.com/ev-fire-what-is-thermal-runaway">thermal runaway</a>. The battery pack then generates more heat than it can dissipate and catches fire.</p>
<p>About 95% of battery fires are classed as ignition fires, which produce jet-like directional flames. The other 5% involve a vapour cloud explosion.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Under test conditions, thermal runaway in cylindrical lithium ion battery cells causes an ignition fire.</span></figcaption>
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<p>A battery can catch fire for various reasons. It may be caused by physical damage from a collision, manufacturing defects, battery faults, workshop repairs, arson, external fires or overheating. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.evfiresafe.com/_files/ugd/8b9ad1_01aa449ee5074086a55cb42aa7603f40.pdf">EV FireSafe database</a> shows about 18% of fires occurred when vehicles were charging, and 2% within an hour of disconnecting from the charger. </p>
<p>About 25% of incidents occurred in underground spaces, 31% while parked outside and 29% while driving (remaining 15% unknown). Of the vapour cloud explosion fires, 70% occurred in underground spaces and 30% in open-air conditions.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Thermal runaway leads to a vapour cloud explosion in a parked bus.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-far-to-the-next-electric-vehicle-charging-station-and-will-i-be-able-to-use-it-heres-how-to-create-a-reliable-network-209222">How far to the next electric vehicle charging station – and will I be able to use it? Here's how to create a reliable network</a>
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<h2>A battery fire is challenging</h2>
<p>Electric vehicle fires do present new problems. Fires must be carefully managed to ensure the safety of firefighters and the public.</p>
<p>Once batteries are on fire, they can be hard to manage. Lithium battery fires burn at extremely high temperatures, can last for days and cause extensive damage. They often reignite just when the fire seems to have subsided. </p>
<p>If not managed properly, battery fires can emit highly toxic gases and chemicals for many <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/29/electric-vehicle-fires-are-rare-but-hard-to-fight-heres-why.html">hours</a>. Properly <a href="https://evfiresafe-training.thinkific.com/">trained</a> firefighting crews are needed to handle these fires.</p>
<p>Methods to control a fire include cooling the battery with water, or using a crane to lift the vehicle and <a href="https://www.hazardexonthenet.net/article/194566/The-burning-question-do-we-have-a-Li-Ion-problem-.aspx">submerge</a> it in a large water container.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">An electric vehicle fire is suppressed using a ‘dunk tank’.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-are-the-environmental-achilles-heel-of-electric-vehicles-unless-we-repair-reuse-and-recycle-them-205404">Batteries are the environmental Achilles heel of electric vehicles – unless we repair, reuse and recycle them</a>
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<h2>Why are the risks higher in e-scooters and e-bikes?</h2>
<p>Fire and road safety incident rates are higher for e-scooters and e-bikes. In the first half of 2023, EV Firesafe <a href="https://www.evfiresafe.com/_files/ugd/8b9ad1_c25fd371dc4b43849a09d37fa53089f7.pdf">data</a> show they accounted for more than 500 battery fires, 138 injuries and 36 deaths worldwide. Over the same six months, 35 electric vehicle battery fires resulted in eight injuries and four deaths. </p>
<p>The higher risk for e-scooters and e-bikes is mainly linked to poor-quality battery design and construction, and the use of <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/how-to-avoid-being-the-next-victim-of-an-e-scooter-fire-20230117-p5cd3m.html">unapproved</a> chargers.</p>
<p>Electric cars and trucks use the same battery technology but have more sophisticated designs. Advanced cooling systems keep their batteries at optimal temperatures during everyday driving and recharging. This makes them much safer than batteries in e-scooters and e-bikes.</p>
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<h2>A national approach to electric vehicle fire safety</h2>
<p>The recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-finally-has-an-electric-vehicle-strategy-how-does-it-stack-up-203897">National EV Strategy</a> <a href="https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/ev-battery-fires-are-rare-but-on-australian-governments-agenda">considered</a> the risk of fires. </p>
<p>As part of the strategy, the federal government committed to <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-electric-vehicle-strategy.pdf">funding</a> the development of world-leading guidance on electric vehicles, road rescue demonstrations and fire safety training. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-31/ev-sales-surge-with-over-forty-five-thousand-sold-this-year/102669582">surge</a> in electric vehicle numbers means this funding is needed now to ensure <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-12/firefighters-call-for-ev-crash-policy-awareness/101824468">firefighters</a> can deal effectively with any fires that do happen. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-finally-has-an-electric-vehicle-strategy-how-does-it-stack-up-203897">Australia finally has an electric vehicle strategy. How does it stack up?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213468/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, and Beam Mobility Holdings.</span></em></p>Reports of electric vehicle fires might lead some people to fear the growing numbers of these vehicles will increase fire risk. In fact, replacing petrol and diesel vehicles is likely to reduce it.Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2132152023-09-14T23:05:59Z2023-09-14T23:05:59ZOur planet is burning in unexpected ways - here’s how we can protect people and nature<p>People have been using fire for millennia. It is a vital part of many ecosystems and cultures. Yet human activities in the current era, sometimes called the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-the-anthropocene-start-in-1950-or-much-earlier-heres-why-debate-over-our-world-changing-impact-matters-209869">Anthropocene</a>”, are reshaping patterns of fire across the planet.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-120220-055357">In our new research</a>, published in the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, we used satellite data to create global maps of where and how fires are burning. We calculated about 3.98 million square kilometres of Earth’s land surface burns each year. We also examined research spanning archaeology, climatology, ecology, Indigenous knowledge and paleoecology, to better understand the causes and consequences of fires.</p>
<p>Our international team found strong evidence fires are burning in unexpected places, at unusual times and in rarely observed ways. These changes in fire patterns are threatening human lives and modifying ecosystems.</p>
<p>But the future does not have to be bleak. There are many opportunities to apply knowledge and practice of fire to benefit people and nature.</p>
<h2>Here’s how fire patterns are changing</h2>
<p>Exploring multiple approaches and scales enables a deeper understanding of where, when and how fires burn.</p>
<p>Satellite data provide evidence of changes in fire patterns at a global scale. <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020RG000726">Annual fire season length</a> increased by 14 days from 1979 to 2020 and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04325-1">night fires</a>, which indicate fires that cannot be quickly controlled, increased in intensity by 7.2% from 2003 to 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An image showing a portion of the globe, as seen from space, showing bushfire smoke mixing into the atmosphere." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The coupling of landscape fires with the atmosphere can create storms that inject smoke into the stratosphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere. Used with permission from David A. Peterson.</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Other changes are apparent only when we look at data from particular regions. An increase in fire size and the frequency of large fires has recently been observed in <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2103135118">forests and woodlands of the western United States</a>. Meanwhile fire-dependent grasslands and savannahs across <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14711">Africa</a> and <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL082327">Brazil</a> have experienced reductions in fire frequency.</p>
<p>It’s also important to consider the timescale and type of fire when interpreting changes. In Australia, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27225-4">satellite records show</a> the frequency of very large forest fires has increased over the past four decades. At longer time scales, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-020-01339-3">charcoal and pollen records</a> indicate the frequency of low-intensity fires <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fee.2395">decreased in parts of southeastern Australia</a> following British colonisation in 1788.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/before-the-colonists-came-we-burned-small-and-burned-often-to-avoid-big-fires-its-time-to-relearn-cultural-burning-201475">Before the colonists came, we burned small and burned often to avoid big fires. It's time to relearn cultural burning</a>
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<h2>Changes in fire affect air, land and water</h2>
<p>Many animals and plants have evolved strategies that enable them to thrive under particular fire patterns. This means changes to fire characteristics can <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abb0355">harm populations and ecosystems</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A closeup photo of epicormic growth in an Australian eucalypt. Small colourful leaves are sprouting from the trunk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some eucalypts in southern Australia resprout after fire via epicormic buds along the trunk and branches. Resprouting influences how rapidly the tree layer, important habitat for animals, regenerates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Thomas A. Fairman</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/conl.12905">Large and intense fires</a> are reducing the available forest habitat preferred by the greater glider. But a <a href="https://theconversation.com/research-reveals-fire-is-pushing-88-of-australias-threatened-land-mammals-closer-to-extinction-185965">lack of fire can be problematic too</a>. Threatened species of native rodents can benefit from food resources and habitats that flourish shortly after fire.</p>
<p>There is evidence that emissions from recent fires are already modifying the atmosphere. The historically exceptional 2019–20 Australian wildfires produced <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe1415#:%7E:text=Intense%2C%20widespread%20bushfires%20in%20Australia,from%20a%20moderate%20volcanic%20eruption.">record-breaking levels of aerosols</a> over the Southern Hemisphere, as well as substantial carbon emissions.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00610-5">wildfire smoke-related health costs</a> of the 2019–20 wildfires in Australia included an estimated 429 smoke-related premature deaths as well as 3,230 hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory disorders.</p>
<p>Changes in fire patterns are modifying water cycles, too. In the western United States, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2009717118">fires are reaching higher elevations</a> and having strong impacts on <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2200333119">snow</a> and water availability. </p>
<p>New studies are revealing how the air, land and water that support life on Earth are connected by fires. Smoke plumes from the 2019–20 Australian wildfires transported nutrients to the Southern Ocean, resulting in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03805-8">widespread phytoplankton blooms</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-protect-yourself-against-bushfire-smoke-this-summer-154720">How to protect yourself against bushfire smoke this summer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Humans are responsible for the changes</h2>
<p>Human drivers such as climate change, land use, fire use and suppression, and transportation and extinction of species <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-120220-055357">are causing shifts in fire patterns</a>.</p>
<p>Increasing global temperatures and more frequent heatwaves and droughts increase the likelihood of fire by promoting hot, dry and windy conditions. A pattern of extreme fire weather outside of natural climate variation is already emerging in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15388">North America</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1183-3">southern Europe</a> and <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1e3a/meta">the Amazon basin</a>.</p>
<p>Humans modify fire regimes by changing land use for agricultural, forestry and urban purposes. Until recent decades, large fires in tropical forests were uncommon. But <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03876-7">deforestation fires</a> used to clear primary forest for agriculture often promotes more frequent and intense uncontrolled fires.</p>
<p>Humans have transported plants and animals across the globe, resulting in novel mixes of species that modify fuels and fire regimes. In many parts of the world, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1908253116">invasive grasses</a> have increased flammability and fire activity.</p>
<p>Social and economic changes propel these drivers. Colonisation by Europeans and the displacement of Indigenous peoples and their skilful use of fire has been linked with fire changes in <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fee.2395">Australia</a>, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2116264119">North America</a> and <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2015.0174">South America</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-rangers-are-burning-the-desert-the-right-way-to-stop-the-wrong-kind-of-intense-fires-from-raging-211900">Indigenous rangers are burning the desert the right way – to stop the wrong kind of intense fires from raging</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photograph of an experimental fire in temperate savannah in Minnesota, US, at the Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve. A low flame is visible on the right hand side of the smoky image." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Experimental fires help us learn about ecosystems and sustainability. This is an experimental fire in temperate savannah in Minnesota, US, at the Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Frank Meuschke</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Using knowledge and practice of fire to achieve sustainability goals</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-120220-055357">The pace and scale of these changes</a> represent challenges to humanity, but knowledge and practice of fire can help to achieve sustainability goals.</p>
<p>This includes:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2015.0174">good health and wellbeing</a>, by supporting community-owned solutions and fire practices that increase social cohesion and health</li>
<li><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718314658">sustainable cities and communities</a>, by designing green firebreaks and mixed-use areas with low fuels, strategically located in the landscape</li>
<li><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aam7672">life on land</a>,
by tailoring use of fire to promote and restore species and ecosystems</li>
<li><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00867-1">climate action</a>,
by applying low-intensity fire to promote the stability of soil organic matter and increase carbon storage</li>
<li><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/8/3921">reduced inequalities</a>, by allocating resources before, during, and after wildfires to at-risk communities and residents.</li>
</ul>
<p>As the world changes, society as a whole needs to keep learning about the interplay between people and fire.</p>
<p>A deep understanding of fire is essential for achieving a sustainable future – in other words, <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-120220-055357">a better Anthropocene</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213215/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Kelly receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, Natural Hazards Research Australia, and NSW Department of Planning and Environment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bowman receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Natural Hazards Research Australia, and NSW Department of Planning and Environment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ella Plumanns Pouton receives funding from the Australian Research Training Program, the Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, and Natural Hazards Research Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Williamson receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Natural Hazards Research Australia, and NSW Department of Planning and Environment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael-Shawn Fletcher receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>We used satellite data to create global maps of where and how fires are burning. Fire season lasts two weeks longer than it used to and fires are more intense. But there are regional differences.Luke Kelly, Associate Professor in Quantitative Ecology, The University of MelbourneDavid Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of TasmaniaElla Plumanns Pouton, PhD candidate, The University of MelbourneGrant Williamson, Research Fellow in Environmental Science, University of TasmaniaMichael-Shawn Fletcher, Professor in Biogeography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071852023-06-11T11:22:06Z2023-06-11T11:22:06ZPredicting and planning for forest fires requires modelling of many complex, interrelated factors<p>Global warming is here. As anticipated <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba4496">for more than 50 years now</a>, the temperature and levels of atmospheric CO2 have increased. </p>
<p>Various models were able to <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming/">predict these increases with precision</a>, and we are seeing the impact now. One of the main effects of the changes in the atmosphere are <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/">frequent forest fires</a>, which are <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-wildfires">more common globally</a> and have affected Canada in the last month.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfires-in-alberta-spark-urgent-school-discussions-about-terrors-of-global-climate-futures-206065">Wildfires in Alberta spark urgent school discussions about terrors of global climate futures</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Complex models</h2>
<p>Mathematical models to predict forest fire behaviours <a href="https://dev.to/jenciarochi/the-history-of-wildfire-modeling-5anl">were first introduced in the 1940s</a> and they have been <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/32533">evolving for decades</a>. They consider various aspects and their complex interrelationships: the <a href="https://www.nwcg.gov/publications/pms437/fuels/surface-fuel-model-descriptions">type of forest fuel</a> (grass, shrub, small trees, large ones), the <a href="https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/fw?type=fwi">weather</a> (wind direction, temperature, humidity), the topology of the terrain, and the <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/wildfire-causes-and-evaluation.htm">source of the fire</a> (human activity, lightning).</p>
<p>Modelling forest fires and forecasting fire behaviour is a complex endeavour. A model can anticipate the direction and intensity of the fire, and help with evacuation, fire suppression and <a href="http://www.airqualityontario.com/aqhi/today.php?sites=51001">forecast of smoke pollution</a>. The models can predict fire spread, which helps protect human life, housing and infrastructure, including crucial utility companies assets.</p>
<p>Mathematical models are important, but in the case of forest fires, we also need to build <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0037549705052230">simulation tools to be able to handle the complexity</a>. We need to consider the different types of fire fuels in each region, the localized winds within forest fire areas, variations in climate, whether a fire spreads from the crown of the trees or on the ground, and other variations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530615/original/file-20230607-5320-vaeo6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a line of fire in a meadow" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530615/original/file-20230607-5320-vaeo6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530615/original/file-20230607-5320-vaeo6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530615/original/file-20230607-5320-vaeo6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530615/original/file-20230607-5320-vaeo6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530615/original/file-20230607-5320-vaeo6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530615/original/file-20230607-5320-vaeo6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530615/original/file-20230607-5320-vaeo6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many factors can affect how quickly a fire spreads.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using a computer to build a virtual laboratory for simulations helps with the prediction process in a safe, risk-free and cost-effective fashion. Experiments can be simulated on a computer to inform better decisions in the field, without affecting the environment, people or infrastructure.</p>
<h2>Complex factors, small scale</h2>
<p>Our lab — the <a href="https://arslab.sce.carleton.ca/">Advanced Real-Time Simulation</a> lab at Carleton University — has been working on new methodologies for modelling and simulation that improve results at a reduced cost. </p>
<p>We model forest fire behaviour at a microscopic level. This is because models that work on <a href="https://doi.org/10.4236/jamp.2022.105122">macro, or larger, scales</a> have some constraints when we want to study the low-level interactions between fire, weather and suppression efforts. </p>
<p>Also, traditional models are harder to interface with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) software applications. We need to be able to interface the models with real-world data coming in real time from a variety of sensors: <a href="https://www.laserfocusworld.com/test-measurement/research/article/16561557/forest-fire-finder-uses-avantes-spectrometer">spectrometers</a>, satellites, <a href="https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-wildfires-infrared-scan-used-to-find-hot-spots-in-out-of-control-blaze-1.6068096">infrared scanners</a>, laser or <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12061000">3D remote sensing devices</a>. Building models that can react to external data needs new methodologies. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nLcQUDKVPHU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Integration of a forest fire model and Geographical Information Systems (GRASS/Google Earth)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our approach divides <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0037549717706007">the geographical space of a fire into small areas</a> and calculates the complex phenomena. Many existing methods study the spread of fire by dividing the area of interest <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/f13121974">using a regular topology</a> (for instance, rectangles, squares or triangles over the area of study), but these models are more complex to integrate with GIS, which use polygons of many different shapes. Building <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.simpat.2022.102649">models with irregular topologies</a> helps with obtaining more precise results. </p>
<p>These techniques help with creating models that are simpler to understand, test and modify.</p>
<p>Similarly, we need the simulations of such models to run efficiently. We defined new <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TPDS.2023.3256083">parallel simulation algorithms</a> to generate a larger number of simulations in a shorter period of time, improving the quality of the results. </p>
<p>We also used <a href="https://doi.org/10.23919/SpringSim.2019.8732888">advanced calculation approaches</a> that include advancing the simulation time irregularly (when important events are detected), as well as techniques to detect <a href="https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSPM.2015.068517">higher levels of activity in the simulation</a>. These techniques allow us to pay more attention to the forest fire sections that need more calculations per second, without computing the equations where they are not needed. This saves simulation time and improves precision of the results.</p>
<h2>Informed decision-making</h2>
<p>Numerous government agencies — such as the <a href="https://ncar.ucar.edu/wildfires/behavior-modeling-prediction">U.S.-based National Center for Atmospheric Research</a> — use various modelling and simulation tools like <a href="https://firesmoke.ca">FireSmoke</a>, <a href="https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/background/summary/fm3">Fire M3</a> and <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/forests/wildland-fires-insects-disturbances/fire-monitoring-reporting-tool/13159">FireMars</a>. These tools include web-based support for decision-makers and provide information to the general public. </p>
<p>To improve such tools, advanced research is needed in the field of <a href="https://doi.org/10.23919/ANNSIM52504.2021.9552123">web-based modelling</a> and distributed simulation, which allows the software to run in remote sites.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WaPguJ6ssxE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Remote execution of forest fire models on mobile devices.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The future of forest fire research includes more sophisticated sensors, new <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2022.105649">artificial intelligence predictive methods</a>, modelling based on <a href="https://www.unr.edu/nevada-today/news/2022/forest-fuel-mapping">Big Data algorithms</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105526">advanced visualization software</a> to enhance the decision-making process. </p>
<p>We need to be prepared for <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/number-of-wildfires-forecast-rise-50-2100">future rounds of forest fires</a>, and modelling and simulation can help in this complex effort.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207185/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriel Wainer receives funding from NSERC. </span></em></p>Predicting how wildfires will behave is a complex endeavour, and requires sophisticated simulation models.Gabriel Wainer, Professor, Systems and Computer Engineering, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2065022023-05-30T05:32:54Z2023-05-30T05:32:54ZRevenge, excitement, or profit: why do people commit arson?<p>The huge blaze that struck Randle Street in central Sydney last week is now the subject of an <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8210175/teens-sought-by-police-over-massive-sydney-cbd-blaze/">arson investigation</a>, authorities have confirmed.</p>
<p>Many details remain unclear, including the safety and whereabouts of some of the people who were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-27/wall-in-sydney-building-moves-after-major-fire/102401470">reportedly sleeping rough in the building</a>, as well as the nature of any criminal charges that may arise.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1663334039540097025"}"></div></p>
<p>Right now there’s also a fire burning on a southern Great Barrier Reef island, threatening a sensitive marine site, which local rangers are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-30/rangers-battle-suspicious-fire-on-great-barrier-reef-island/102408970">treating as suspicious</a>.</p>
<p>While arson is yet to be confirmed in either of these specific cases, it’s timely to look at the issue of arson more generally.</p>
<p>Aside from the personal and environmental implications, the financial burden of arson is huge. Recent data are difficult to obtain, although it was estimated that the total cost of arson in Australia was <a href="https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-05/rpp129.pdf">A$2.3 billion in 2011</a>, and the annual figure is likely to have increased since then.</p>
<p>There’s a lack of scientific research attempting to understand the arsonist, perhaps because the “typical arsonist” doesn’t exist. Or maybe it’s because so few arsons are solved, and the rate of successful convictions remains low.</p>
<p>However, the research that has been done suggests there are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B012369397700203X">six main</a> <a href="https://www.firehouse.com/community-risk/investigation-equipment/article/10464930/arson-investigation-the-six-motives-for-firesetting">types of</a> <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shelby-Miller-8/publication/342276745_Applications_of_Criminology_to_the_Multidimensional_Crime_of_Arson/links/5eeb748092851ce9e7ecad80/Applications-of-Criminology-to-the-Multidimensional-Crime-of-Arson.pdf">arsonist</a>.</p>
<h2>6 types of arsonist</h2>
<p>Arson, as <a href="https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab1#:%7E:text=Arson%20is%20the%20act%20of,through%20the%20use%20of%20fire">defined</a> by the Australian Institute of Criminology, is the act of “intentionally and maliciously destroying or damaging property through the use of fire”.</p>
<p>For a fire to be classified as arson there must be intent – the intention to cause harm or damage.</p>
<p>Arson can also be the primary or secondary motive – is setting the fire the main purpose, or is the fire being used to disguise another activity?</p>
<p>Here are the main six underlying reasons why someone might commit arson:</p>
<p><strong>1. The ‘for profit’ arsonist</strong></p>
<p>There are many ways someone can profit from arson. This includes extortion, or destroying a property to clear a piece of land. But most commonly these crimes are attempts at insurance fraud.</p>
<p>There are different types of property insurance fraud, including residential, commercial and vehicular. Residential fraud is committed by the homeowner or tenant; commercial fraud is committed by an owner to destroy company statements or claim on insurance; and vehicular fraud may occur when someone can’t afford their repayments.</p>
<p>These are largely one-off crimes and are very focused, and the offender is easier to catch than with other types of arson because they have a direct link with the damaged property or its owner.</p>
<p><strong>2. Pyromaniacs</strong></p>
<p>These perpetrators light fires for thrills and attention. Their fires range from bins to occupied buildings, and the size and risk associated with the fires may increase over time as the arsonist needs more excitement with each event.</p>
<p>This type of offender is often voyeuristic, and may wait for emergency services to attend, sometimes even calling them themselves, as they want to be present at the scene. They may video or photograph the fire and the first responders.</p>
<p>As a result, for investigators it’s important to capture images of the crowd to see who was watching.</p>
<p>This category includes first responders who set fires in order to be a “hero” in attendance, seeking praise and recognition for their bravery.</p>
<p>For example, a New South Wales volunteer firefighter was charged in January 2021 for allegedly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/rfs-member-charged-with-lighting-30-fires-in-nsw-20210124-p56wei.html">starting more than 30 fires</a> during that summer.</p>
<p><strong>3. Crime concealment</strong></p>
<p>For these offenders, the arson is secondary to the concealment of another serious crime, such as murder or theft.</p>
<p>Fire is a very successful means of destroying many forms of evidence, such as fingerprints that may have been left at a scene or clothing worn during the crime.</p>
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<p><strong>4. The revenge arsonist</strong></p>
<p>These offenders are emotionally driven, and set fires out of anger or hatred, or for revenge for a real or perceived wrong. The need for retaliation could be based in a personal slight – such as an affair, or having been dismissed from a job.</p>
<p>Targets vary from individuals to institutions. And because of the emotional state of the offender, these crimes are usually disorganised and use unsophisticated methods of starting the fire, meaning they leave more evidence behind than some other types.</p>
<p><strong>5. Extremist motivations</strong></p>
<p>Extremist arsonists are driven by religious, political or social agendas.</p>
<p>There are two types of extremist arsonist, the first being those reacting to a civil disturbance, such as the death of a person in custody. Activities may include vandalism and looting, and the purpose may be to draw attention to a perceived injustice. </p>
<p>For example, 36-year-old Jose A. Felan Jr was sentenced to 6.5 years in prison in the United States after he <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/jose-felan-36-gets-6-12-years-in-prison-for-multiple-arsons-during-george-floyd-unrest/">set fires</a> at a school and two shops, during the riots that followed the police killing of George Floyd during an arrest in May 2020.</p>
<p>The second type are terrorist arsonists, known as pyro-terrorism, which is <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/pyro-terrorism-threat-arson-induced-forest-fires-future-terrorist">defined</a> as “the use of incendiary attacks to intimidate or coerce a government or civilian population”. These offenders may use arson as one of a range of measures, and work alone or in cells.</p>
<p>Because their crimes are premeditated with targets selected carefully to have the most social, economic or political impact, these offenders are often highly organised, and may use advanced incendiary devices. The purpose is to cause mass fear, beyond the actual target itself.</p>
<p><strong>6. Vandalism</strong></p>
<p>Vandal arsonists are typically juveniles, who set fire to bins, abandoned vehicles or empty buildings, and may do so to cover up other crimes such as theft. Often an additional factor in the starting of the fire is peer pressure or gang initiation, as these arsonists often act in groups.</p>
<p>For these offenders, arson can be what criminologists call a “gateway crime” – a crime that may lead to more severe criminal activity.</p>
<p>But if such offenders are given suitable support, rehabilitation can be highly successful to prevent them becoming serious, repeat offenders.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-rehabilitation-not-harsher-prison-sentences-makes-economic-sense-132213">Why rehabilitation – not harsher prison sentences – makes economic sense</a>
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<p>Although these are the main motives for arson, each does not act in a vacuum, and more than one may jointly contribute to the arsonist’s motivations. For example, someone may be murdered out of revenge, and then the offender sets a fire to conceal that crime or destroy evidence. </p>
<p>Arson is highly complex crime, with a wide range of social, psychological and environmental influences. More work needs to be done to understand the arsonist and their motivations, and how they can be identified, caught, convicted and hopefully rehabilitated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206502/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Research highlights at least six different motivations for perpetrators that commit arson.Xanthe Mallett, Forensic Criminologist, University of NewcastleJoel Robert McGregor, Lecturer in Criminology, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2052412023-05-29T13:09:42Z2023-05-29T13:09:42ZAccra’s market fires are devastating to informal traders - but they don’t trust or understand what they’re being told about managing risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525629/original/file-20230511-25-3t81fw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Market fires cause significant upheavals in the heavily informal Ghanaian economy</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ghana’s informal urban markets play a key role in the country’s economy. They <a href="https://www.wiego.org/sites/default/files/publications/file/WIEGO_Statistical_Brief_N21_0.pdf#page=2">employ more than 80%</a> of the people who work in the informal sector. They create livelihoods for traders, give urban residents access to essential household products, and add value to the culture of urban life.</p>
<p>Most market traders rely on credit from financial institutions, family and friends. Few have insurance. Without insurance, traders are left vulnerable to fire disasters, as urban markets are prone to fire outbreaks. </p>
<p>There are no statistics on the number of fires that have gutted markets in Ghana. That’s because the numbers fall under the Ghana National Fire Service’s classification of commercial fires. In 2022 there were <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Editorial-How-long-will-our-markets-continue-to-burn-while-we-ignore-the-real-signs-of-disasters-1736234">986 recorded commercial fires</a> in Ghana. </p>
<p>Urban market fires in the informal sector have received relatively little attention from local governments compared to flood disasters. And <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10708-021-10416-3">research</a> shows that local government authorities have failed to include fire risk in their urban management and development plans. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/rhc3.12259">study</a> showed that risk communication is an important part of fire disaster management. Providing adequate information on fire risks is crucial in disaster prevention and response. But effective fire risk communication requires that authorities engage regularly with communities. In this case, traders. It must do so in a way that draws on community knowledge and practices.</p>
<h2>Risk communication in informal urban markets</h2>
<p>We did our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/rhc3.12259">research</a> in the Makola and Nima markets in Accra, Ghana’s capital city. The <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sjtg.12167">Makola market</a> is large, having more than 35,000 traders and hawkers. It was established in 1924 and has grown in an unregulated way. The <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/psp.551">Nima market</a> is much smaller but has also grown haphazardly in a slum area. </p>
<p>The selection of these two markets enabled us to compare and understand socio-cultural factors affecting fire risk communication. </p>
<p>We combined interviews and focus group discussions with market women, executives of traders’ unions, and officials of the Ghana National Fire Service, the National Disaster Management Organisation, and the Regional Coordinating Council.</p>
<p>One of our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/rhc3.12259">key findings</a> was that informal traders lose trust in the authorities when they fail to keep the promises made after previous fire disasters. This leads to traders’ distrust of risk communication information and actions by authorities.</p>
<p>In addition, fire risk communication by the authorities has been ineffective because of limited engagement between traders and city authorities. Traders told us that a continuous relationship with officials of the Accra Metropolitan Assembly would have helped reduce market fires. </p>
<p>There was also the issue of language, which hampered effective fire risk communication. Some traders said that most radio discussions on fire risks and hazards were conducted in languages they did not understand. For instance, in the Nima market, which is dominated by traders from northern Ghana and neighbouring west African countries, the traders mentioned that fire risk communication was delivered by traders’ association executives mostly in English and other southern languages. Traders weren’t proficient in these. Obviously, being unable to understand a particular language affects the ability to comprehend a message.</p>
<p>Religious beliefs also contributed to the way traders perceived fire risk communication messages. Some traders attributed fire outbreaks to the wrath of God on some traders due to perceived corrupt trading activities or punishment for moral failures.</p>
<h2>Top-down approach doesn’t work</h2>
<p>Our research shows that top-down risk communication involving authorities has been ineffective in reducing disasters. <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.4324/9781315797809/cultures-disasters-fred-kr%C3%BCger-greg-bankoff-terry-cannon-lisa-schipper-benedikt-orlowski">Research</a> shows that communication is most effective when it involves authorities and residents at risk or affected by disasters. </p>
<p>This allows for the development of communication strategies that are embedded in the cultures and environments of the communities.</p>
<p>Each community’s culture contains strategies and practices for dealing with disasters. Tapping into this makes risk communication more effective and builds social resilience. It shapes a community’s perception of risks.</p>
<p>Our findings point to issues which city authorities and disaster management institutions should consider when planning communication on fire risks in informal urban markets. </p>
<p>Firstly, they should incorporate traders’ circumstances in all communication plans. They should also work within each market’s existing social structures, including traders’ associations. Trust is crucial - so disaster management agencies must respond to the needs of traders and, most importantly, live up to their responsibilities and promises. </p>
<p>To be effective, fire risk communication strategies must not only be supported by formal institutions such as government agencies but also be rooted in and sensitive to each market’s socio-cultural dynamics and networks. </p>
<p><em>Stephen Leonard Mensah, graduate research assistant at the University of Ghana, is a contributing author</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seth Asare Okyere is part of an international team of scholars receiving funding from the Volvo Research and Educational Fund (VREF)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louis Kusi Frimpong is part of an international team of scholars receiving funding from the Volvo Research and Educational Fund (VREF)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Abunyewah and Stephen Kofi Diko do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fire risk communication strategies must not only be supported by formal institutions such as government agencies but also be rooted in and sensitive to each market’s socio-cultural dynamics.Seth Asare Okyere, Visiting Assistant Professor, University of ArizonaLouis Kusi Frimpong, Lecturer, University of Environment and Sustainable Development Matthew Abunyewah, Research Fellow, The Australasian Centre for Resilience Implementation for Sustainable Communities, Charles Darwin UniversityStephen Kofi Diko, Assistant Professor, University of MemphisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2013652023-05-10T14:32:14Z2023-05-10T14:32:14ZForest fires: North America’s boreal forests are burning a lot, but less than 150 years ago<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514735/original/file-20230310-24-i3qohj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C2%2C1637%2C748&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Satellite image of a forest fire in July 2021 in northern Saskatchewan (Wapawekka Hills). The image covers an area of about 56 kilometres in width and is based on Copernicus Sentinel data.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pierre Markuse), CC BY 2.0</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Unseasonably hot and dry weather conditions <a href="https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/fw?type=fdr&year=2023&month=5&day=5">in early May 2023</a> led to dozens of forest fires <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151313/fires-scorch-western-canada">in western Canada</a>. As of May 6, the Alberta government declared a <a href="https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/alberta-declares-state-of-emergency-due-to-unprecedented-start-to-wildfire-season-1.6387641">state of emergency over wildfires</a>, and at the time of writing this article, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-wildfires-environment-weather-extreme-1.6835352">nearly 30,000 people had to be evacuated</a>. Although it is too early to establish a precise assessment of this extreme episode, recent research allows us to place it in a broader context.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
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<p>In North American boreal forests, several million hectares can go up in smoke in a single year. On the other hand, these forest fires can seem almost negligible for several consecutive years. During the past 60 years, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2018-0293">the area annually affected by forest fires has increased</a>, presumably because of climate change. Or at least that’s part of the explanation. </p>
<p>However, to better understand the long-term trends it is important to take a step back. This is the work our team of forest and fire ecology specialists recently carried out. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22090">The results of our research</a> contradict the common wisdom about North American boreal forests — that they burned more in the past than they do today. But before we go into more detail about this, we feel it’s important to provide some background and context.</p>
<h2>What causes a forest fire?</h2>
<p>Scientists have been asking this question for a long time. Thanks to research carried out in the last few decades, the answer can now be summed up by three factors: vegetation, weather, and triggers.</p>
<p>Vegetation, which can be thought of as fuel, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12322">is a determining factor</a>. For example, large areas of dense coniferous forest are more likely to burn down than are deciduous forests with wetter undergrowth, or less dense forests. </p>
<p><a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/impacts-adaptations/climate-change-impacts-forests/forest-change-indicators/fire-weather/17776">Meteorological factors also influence the flammability of fuels</a>; dry, windy conditions are highly conducive to the ignition and spread of fires. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Burned forest landscape in 2010 in the Radisson region (northern Quebec).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Guillaume Avajon)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
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<p>However, this combination of favourable conditions, itself, is not enough to generate a forest fire; there also needs to be a trigger. There are two types of triggers: lightning and humans. Although humans have been the cause of most fires started in recent decades in Canada, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3329">lightning has actually been responsible for the largest area of burned forest</a>.</p>
<h2>Impacts on society</h2>
<p>When we hear about forest fires in the media, the news is usually tragic for communities. As a recent example, during the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/3138183/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-named-canadas-news-story-of-2016/">2016 Fort McMurray disaster</a>, some 600,000 hectares went up in smoke and over 88,000 people were evacuated. </p>
<p>Fires also have an economic impact on the forestry industry, as they consume millions of trees originally destined for mills. Moreover, fires accelerate climate change, as the burning of vegetation causes a massive release of CO2 into the atmosphere.</p>
<h2>A strong influence on ecosystems, but not necessarily negative</h2>
<p>The landscape we see a few weeks after a fire often looks apocalyptic. Forest fires leave significant traces on ecosystems and biodiversity. This is the case for certain species such as the Woodland Caribou, which depend on the presence of mature coniferous forests to survive. Fires <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02294">are therefore a threat to its survival</a>.</p>
<p>But, on the other hand, fires have always been part of forests, and are sometimes even essential to their ecological functioning. Most of the time, the burned landscape will gradually give way to vigorous young trees, which grow into a mature forest <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abf3903">in some 50 to 100 years</a>. Some tree species are even dependent on fire <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12855">to regenerate and as a result, maintain themselves</a>. This is the case notably of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/x92-062">jack pine and black spruce</a>, which the forestry industry loves.</p>
<p>Many animal species are also fond of burned forests. Charred tree trunks provide food for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08109">certain insect species</a>, such as the <a href="https://bugguide.net/node/view/573401/bgpage">black long-horned beetle</a>. Insects in turn provide abundant food for birds, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.01.022">black-backed woodpeckers</a>, which use snags (dead standing trees whose roots are still anchored to the ground) to nest.</p>
<p>In other words, fires are neither entirely good, nor entirely bad. It depends on your point of view. Additionally, as is often the case, it is also a question of balance…</p>
<h2>Reconstructing the history of fires over the last centuries</h2>
<p>Accurate records required to reconstruct the history of forest fires in Canada only go back to the 1960s. So how can we reconstruct the history of burned areas over the last few centuries? We can use the information contained in the trees themselves, and more specifically, their age. </p>
<p>In boreal forests, fire is a dominant natural disturbance. So, by determining the age of the oldest trees in a forest, provided these have not been cut down, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1078/1125-7865-00015">we can figure out the last time a forest burned</a>.</p>
<h2>A downward trend in burned areas over the past few centuries</h2>
<p>We gathered 16 studies that had independently applied the same method to different areas across North American boreal forests, from Alaska to Québec. After reanalysis of all this data in what scientists call a “meta-analysis,” <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22090%22%22">the results</a> are striking: North American boreal forests burned much more 150 years ago than they do today. In the earliest period covered by our data, between 1700 and 1850, the annual area burned was between two and more than 10 times greater than what has been observed over the past 40 years.</p>
<p>What explains this long-term downward trend? It is difficult to say based on the current state of research. Obviously, climate change is one of the suspects. The period from 1700 to 1850 was the end of what is known as the Little Ice Age, a period known for being colder, but probably also drier and, therefore, more conducive to fires. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Mapping of fires (red on map) in North American boreal forests (green area on map) since 1960. The graph on the left shows the total area burned per year in millions of hectares. Over this recent period, there is both a large variability from year to year, and also a slight upward trend. Infographic by Victor Danneyrolles based on https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/ha/nfdb for Canada and https://fire.ak.blm.gov for Alaska.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Victor Danneyrolles)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
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<p>The vegetation could also have changed and become less flammable, particularly as a result of cuts by the logging industry over the 20th century. Also during the 20th century the technological and financial means allocated to firefighting continued to increase, culminating in the 1970s with the appearance of <a href="https://simpleflying.com/canadair-cl-215-scooper-history/">water bomber aircraft</a>. Fire suppression policies could therefore have also played a role in reducing fires in some areas. </p>
<p>However, fires began to decline as early as the 19th century, long before human communities had a significant impact on the North American boreal forest environment. It seems more likely that climate change is the primary cause of the decrease in fires, superimposed by the impacts of human activity.</p>
<p>We hope new research will soon allow us to answer these questions. A better understanding of why fires have decreased or increased over the past few centuries will give us a head start in predicting what to expect from future climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201365/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raphaël Chavardès has received funding from Fonds de recherche du Québec - Nature et technologie (FRQNT).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yves Bergeron has received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and Fonds de recherche du Québec - Nature et technologie (FRQNT).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victor Danneyrolles ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>North America’s boreal forests have been burning a lot, probably more and more over the past 60 years. Yet the long-term trend indicates that they are burning less than they were 150 years ago.Victor Danneyrolles, Professeur-chercheur en écologie forestière, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Raphaël Chavardès, Postdoctoral fellow, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Yves Bergeron, Professeur écologie et aménagement forestier, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1699942021-10-28T17:53:42Z2021-10-28T17:53:42Z10 fire safety tips to help keep you and your kids alive and safe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428822/original/file-20211027-15-86erf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C4985%2C3330&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The majority of fire-related deaths that occurred in 2020 took place in people's homes. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flames-vent-as-firefighters-work-to-put-out-the-flames-news-photo/1235064357?adppopup=true">Ty O'Neil/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Too many people are losing their lives in fires.</p>
<p>Although the number of people killed in fires in the United States has been <a href="https://www.nfpa.org/%7E/media/fd0144a044c84fc5baf90c05c04890b7.ashx">going down since the 1980s</a>, the number is still high. In the year 2020, for example, <a href="https://www.nfpa.org/%7E/media/fd0144a044c84fc5baf90c05c04890b7.ashx">3,500 people were killed in fires</a> in the U.S. The vast majority of those deaths – 2,580, to be exact, or about three out of every four – took place at home. Another 11,500 people suffered fire-related injuries at home. </p>
<p>I know all of this too well. Before I became <a href="https://experts.wvu.edu/experts/mark-lambert">director of the West Virginia University Fire Service Extension</a>, I spent 23 years as a fire and explosion investigator for the West Virginia State Fire Marshal’s Office. In that position, I investigated approximately 1,000 cases in which people were killed or injured in home fires. As any fire investigator will tell you, I know that a lot of fire deaths and injuries can be avoided by following a few simple steps. </p>
<h2>1. Get some smoke detectors</h2>
<p>Smoke detectors <a href="https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Data-research-and-tools/Detection-and-Signaling/Smoke-Alarms-in-US-Home-Fires">reduce your chances of dying in a fire</a> by 50%.</p>
<p>They can be purchased at department stores, hardware stores or online for as little as US$10. The more expensive models, which may cost closer to $100, have extra features, such as flashing lights or audio files where a parent can add a voice message telling their child to “Wake up, the fire alarm is going off!” Some can also detect carbon monoxide.</p>
<p>If you or your family cannot afford a smoke detector, you might be able to get one from your local fire department or your local American Red Cross for free. Most departments will also teach you how to install one.</p>
<h2>2. Put a smoke detector on every level of your home</h2>
<p>You should have at least one smoke detector on every level of your home. Ideally, there should be one in every bedroom, another one just outside of every bedroom, one in the laundry and furnace area and one in the attic.</p>
<p>Change the batteries twice a year. Do this even if you don’t hear the detector “chirp” to let you know the batteries are low. Replace the smoke detectors every 10 years. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428901/original/file-20211027-15-glicll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Black man installs a smoke detector." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428901/original/file-20211027-15-glicll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428901/original/file-20211027-15-glicll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428901/original/file-20211027-15-glicll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428901/original/file-20211027-15-glicll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428901/original/file-20211027-15-glicll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428901/original/file-20211027-15-glicll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428901/original/file-20211027-15-glicll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">People with smoke detectors in their homes are more likely to survive a fire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/electrician-installing-fire-sensor-royalty-free-image/853750136?adppopup=true">AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Firefighters have been <a href="https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/publications/fa-264.pdf">stressing the importance of smoke detectors since 1973</a>. Even so, 41% of all U.S. <a href="https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Data-research-and-tools/Detection-and-Signaling/Smoke-Alarms-in-US-Home-Fires">home fire deaths</a> took place on properties where there was no smoke detector, and 16% took place on properties where the smoke detector didn’t work. </p>
<p>In several cases, I have investigated fatal fires only to find the detector on the kitchen counter with no batteries in it. </p>
<h2>3. Close bedroom doors</h2>
<p>Research indicates that you are <a href="https://www.iafc.org/iCHIEFS/iCHIEFS-article/ul-fsri-survey-more-americans-close-doors-for-fire-safety-but-there-is-still-work-to-do">more likely to survive a fire</a> if your bedroom door is closed.</p>
<p>That’s the reason why firefighters say you should install a detector outside of every bedroom, not just inside. If a fire breaks out outside your bedroom, you want to be awakened by a smoke detector, not actual smoke. Keeping your door closed gives you <a href="https://fsri.org/programs/close-you-doze">extra time in a smoke-free environment</a> to escape a house fire. </p>
<h2>4. Set up an exit plan</h2>
<p>All members of the house should decide on an exit plan for each of their bedrooms. If you can get up and get out the normal way, through a front or back door, then take that route. Remember: If the door handle is hot, do not open the door. If flames or smoke block your path, you need to exit through your window.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428904/original/file-20211027-15573-14htvbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of children place their hands on a fireman's hat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428904/original/file-20211027-15573-14htvbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428904/original/file-20211027-15573-14htvbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428904/original/file-20211027-15573-14htvbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428904/original/file-20211027-15573-14htvbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428904/original/file-20211027-15573-14htvbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428904/original/file-20211027-15573-14htvbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428904/original/file-20211027-15573-14htvbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Escape plans help children understand how to get out of their house in case of an emergency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/first-graders-tap-the-helmet-of-firefighter-molly-cropp-news-photo/1094416368?adppopup=true">Lewis Geyer/Digital First Media/Boulder Daily Camera via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Everyone should practice the plan and be familiar with it. Write the plan down and practice it when you change smoke detector batteries.</p>
<p>Your family should have a meeting spot outside – such as across the street, a tree or mailbox – where everyone should go once they escape.</p>
<h2>5. Purchase a fire ladder</h2>
<p>If you live on the second floor of a building or higher, you may need to purchase a fire ladder to safely escape through your window. These ladders can be rope or chain ladders with steps made of plastic or metal. You can purchase these at most home repair stores and online. They are already put together and ready to use.</p>
<p>Look for an Underwriters Laboratories (which is a global safety certification company) <a href="https://www.ul.com/">listed brand</a> to purchase. Read the instructions that come with the ladder and be familiar with how to use it.</p>
<h2>6. Exit first, then call 911</h2>
<p>The time to call 911 is after you have exited your house. Once you are out of your house, you call tell the 911 dispatcher the exact location and any other information they may ask you for. The dispatcher may also want you to stay on the line until the fire department arrives – something you can’t do if you’re in a burning home.</p>
<h2>7. Never re-enter a burning home</h2>
<p>If your house is on fire, never reenter it for any reason until the firefighters say it is safe to do so.</p>
<p>I once investigated a case where a mother went back into the burning house to find her other children, and her toddler followed her. While the mom made it back out, the toddler did not. Your life is important. Let the firefighters handle the rescues.</p>
<h2>8. Never leave a burning candle in a room by itself</h2>
<p>If you light a candle and forget about it, it may cause a fire. This happens more often than most realize. In 2018, there were <a href="https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/US-Fire-Problem/Fire-causes/osCandles.pdf">7,500 candle fires</a> in the U.S. In 16% of the candle fires, the candles were <a href="https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/US-Fire-Problem/Fire-causes/osCandles.pdf">unattended or abandoned</a>. </p>
<p>Be especially careful with candles during the holidays, which are <a href="https://www.nfpa.org/Public-Education/Fire-causes-and-risks/Seasonal-fire-causes/Winter-holidays/Holiday-fires-by-the-numbers">the peak time</a> for candle fires. This is because candles are often too close to holiday decorations, which can easily catch fire.</p>
<h2>9. Don’t sleep with space heaters</h2>
<p>One of the <a href="https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/US-Fire-Problem/Fire-causes/osHeating.pdf">leading causes of fire death</a> is home heating. “A vast majority of home heating fire deaths (81%) involved stationary or portable space heaters,” a 2021 <a href="https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/US-Fire-Problem/Fire-causes/osHeating.pdf">home heating fire report</a> states. “Over half (54%) of the home heating fire deaths were caused by having heating equipment too close to things that can burn, such as upholstered furniture, clothing, mattress, or bedding.” </p>
<p>While technology in space heaters has improved over the past 20 years, never leave a radiant space heater unattended and never fall asleep with one on. I once had to tell a 9-year-old boy, two days after Christmas, that he lost his mother, father and sister in a fire that started because of a radiant space heater. One of the children’s blankets came in contact with the heater and started the fire. When possible, you should rely on the normal heating system for the home. Use space heaters with caution. </p>
<h2>10. Get a fire extinguisher</h2>
<p>The ideal extinguisher for the home is the <a href="https://www.kidde.com/home-safety/en/us/support/help-center/browse-articles/articles/abc_fire_extinguishers.html">multipurpose type</a> that can put out fires of all different types, like electrical and liquid. These extinguishers are small enough that they can be easily handled and can extinguish or stall the fire until firefighters arrive. Familiarize yourself with how it operates prior to needing it for an emergency. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 115,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Experts disagree on whether young children should be trained on how to operate a fire extinguisher. The National Fire Protection Association, for example, says children should just <a href="https://www.nfpa.org/Public-Education/Staying-safe/Safety-equipment/Fire-extinguishers">focus on getting out of the home</a> because they may not be able to handle a fire extinguisher or know how to react if the fire still spreads. A Detroit power company, however, says children from age 6 to 13 can be trained to operate a fire extinguisher as long as they can <a href="https://empoweringmichigan.com/age-age-guide-talking-teaching-fire-safety-kids/">lift it and hold it</a>.</p>
<p>Just like smoke detectors, you also should check your fire extinguishers twice a year to see that they are pressurized and functional.</p>
<p>If practiced as a family, following these simple steps could make the difference between whether you escape a house fire or become the next statistic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169994/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark R. Lambert does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Last year, 3,500 Americans were killed by house fires. A former fire and explosion investigator has 10 tips to keep you and your children safe this holiday season.Mark R. Lambert, Assistant Clinical Professor and Director of West Virginia University-Fire Service Extension, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1669442021-09-01T14:42:24Z2021-09-01T14:42:24ZAlgeria suffers from devastating wildfires, but faces big challenges in addressing them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418472/original/file-20210830-21-3pdakp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smoke rises from a wildfire in the forested hills of the Kabylie region, east of the capital Algiers, on August 10, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">RYAD KRAMDI/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Algeria, like many other countries in the Mediterranean region, is prone to wildfires especially between June and September. António Bento-Gonçalves, provides information about these fires in Algeria and what should be done to manage them better.</em></p>
<h2>How often do wildfire incidents take place in Algeria and which areas are most affected?</h2>
<p>In recent years major fires, with devastating consequences, have occurred in various parts of the world. The Mediterranean region is particularly affected by heatwaves between July and August which cause major fire incidents in several countries including Greece, Turkey, Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria. </p>
<p>I’ve carried out <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/296939491_Forest_fires_in_Algeria_Occurrences_causes_and_prevention">research on wildfires</a> in Algeria and looked into what causes them. </p>
<p>In Algeria, forests and scrubland occupy a total area of around 4 million hectares. This makes a huge part of the country susceptible to fire. For instance, between 1876 and 2005 (the longest complete data series) it’s estimated that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/296939491_Forest_fires_in_Algeria_Occurrences_causes_and_prevention">almost</a> 40,000 hectares burned each year, representing approximately 1% of all existing woodlands of the country. </p>
<p>Over a period of 25 years, from 1985 to 2010, Algeria recorded 42,555 fires that burned <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/mediterranee/6827">a total area of</a> 910,640 hectares. </p>
<p>The municipalities (known as “wilayas”) most affected are in the North – the most forested parts of the country – and in the West. These areas are more populated, hilly (with steep slopes) and a pronounced Mediterranean climate – a very dry and hot season in summer, but sufficiently wet in winter to allow for rapid vegetation growth.</p>
<h2>What causes them?</h2>
<p>Wild fires spread the fastest in places that are hard to reach and in the right conditions. Large parts of Algeria tick these boxes.
With very limited access and steep slopes, detection and effective first intervention by firefighters is very difficult. In addition there’s usually very dry undergrowth and forests are composed of flammable species.</p>
<p>Added to this, Algeria’s forested areas are subject to multiple human pressures which create conditions that are favourable to the spread of fires. These include the the use of fast-growing but more flammable forest species or the frequent use of fire for pasture regeneration. In addition, having long periods of hot and dry weather increase fire risk. </p>
<p>Forest fires in Algeria were <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325258786_Wildfire_risk_and_its_perception_in_Kabylia_Algeria">historically</a> caused by people. However, <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/vertigo/15462">recent official information</a> on the causes of fires is characterised by high rate of fires of “unknown origin”, representing between 40% to 70% of all fires. Essentially, we know they’ll be caused by people, but there’s no specific data on what activity that caused them or motivations behind them.</p>
<p>Why do we not know? This is related to difficulties in monitoring by the <a href="http://iii-med.forestweek.org/content/general-directorate-forestry-government-algeria">General Directorate of Forests</a>. Between 1980 and 2000, when the causes of fires of unknown origin were higher, this was due to instability. Algeria had a civil war that lasted from 1991 to 2002 and prevented government agencies, including the Directorate of Forests, from working properly. This <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/296939491_Forest_fires_in_Algeria_Occurrences_causes_and_prevention">made it difficult</a> to have a good understanding of what caused the fires. </p>
<h2>How are they managed and are there prevention measures in place?</h2>
<p>Generally, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/296939491_Forest_fires_in_Algeria_Occurrences_causes_and_prevention">policies put in place</a> to combat forest fires are organised around several points: information and education of the population, development and maintenance of rural and forest areas, surveillance of wooded areas, and improvement of the means of fire fighting. </p>
<p>However, not knowing exactly what type of human activity causes the fires limits what can be done to prevent them. Instead, policies tend to be more reactionary – they focus on dealing with fires when they break out. </p>
<p>In recent years, public authorities <a href="https://www.uc.pt/fluc/nicif/riscos/Documentacao/Territorium/T24_Artg/T24_Artg13.pdf">strengthened</a> the resources of the General Directorate of Forests for the prevention and fight against forest fires. In particular, by acquiring first intervention equipment, such as forest fire trucks, preparing more aircraft for firefighting, and a radio network for rapid communication in the event of fire outbreak. </p>
<p>In addition, more collaborative work is <a href="https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC122115">being done</a> in the region to improve intervention and surveillance. </p>
<h2>What else can be done to better prepare and manage wildfires in Algeria?</h2>
<p>Policies to prevent and protect against forest fires have been implemented gradually since the 1980s, but the country faces many challenges in effectively rolling them out. </p>
<p>Algeria is a huge country – with a size <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1207844/largest-countries-in-africa-by-area/">exceeding</a> 2.38 million km2, it’s the biggest country in Africa. With a massive territory to manage, all actions – to prevent, to detect and to fire fight – aren’t enough. Operations are <a href="https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=5909104">also very complex</a> due to the very uneven, hard to access, terrain.</p>
<p>There’s also a high population density around and inside the forest massifs. This means its hard to control the actions that people take which are a fire hazard.</p>
<p>Added to this, forestry officials lack authority and resources to perform their duties. </p>
<p>To effectively combat fires, there must be political, social and economic stability in the country. And the causes of the fires must be clearly known. Without this, it’s impossible to win the battle against forest fires. </p>
<p>There is, however, hope. New technologies, such as Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems, could improve data acquisition and thus the prevention of fires. </p>
<p>Other actions that must be taken include; the strengthening of education and awareness-raising and improvements in the equipment used to monitor, detect and fight forest fires. </p>
<p>Finally, policymakers must focus on strengthening cooperation and mutual assistance between all the Mediterranean countries. Fire knows no borders and no single country is capable of having all the necessary resources.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>António Bento-Gonçalves does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With a massive territory to manage, all actions taken - to prevent, to detect and to fire fight - aren’t enough.António Bento-Gonçalves, Associated Professor, Department of Geography, University of MinhoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1627702021-07-09T02:14:21Z2021-07-09T02:14:21ZCould Sri Lanka’s ship fire have been avoided? Here’s what we can learn from the shocking environmental disaster<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-02/sri-lanka-turtles-chemical-cargo-ship/100264568">Hundreds of dead turtles</a> continue to wash ashore in Sri Lanka, almost two months after a newly built container ship caught fire while anchored off Colombo’s port. </p>
<p>The X-Press Pearl was carrying 1,486 containers and burned for two weeks. It then sunk in early June, causing one of Sri Lanka’s greatest environmental disasters.</p>
<p>Chemicals contaminated waters, killing marine life and destroying breeding grounds. The contaminants include nitric acid, sodium dioxide, copper and lead, and tonnes of plastic nurdles (pellets) which can take centuries to decompose. </p>
<p>Local communities entirely dependent on fishing for their livelihoods have been <a href="https://www.dailynews.lk/2021/05/29/local/250369/fishing-prohibited-sea-area-around-x-press-pearl">ordered not to fish</a>. Now, the environment faces the threat of an oil spill, which authorities, with international assistance, are desperately <a href="https://qz.com/2028044/satellites-spot-oil-leak-from-x-press-pearl-wreck-near-sri-lanka/">trying to contain</a>. </p>
<p>Local police have launched a criminal investigation. Meanwhile, the Centre for Environmental Justice has filed a <a href="http://www.supremecourt.lk/images/documents/dailycourtlists/04.06.2021.pdf">fundamental rights petition</a> in the Sri Lankan Supreme Court.</p>
<p>In the wake of the disaster, many commentators have sought to explain what went wrong. But these have largely missed a broader, though crucial, issue this disaster exposed: the tension between economic development and environmental protection. This makes shipping a realm of ultra-free trade distant from, and sometimes untouched by, regulations.</p>
<p>I’ll help unravel what went so drastically wrong, and how we can try to prevent similar disasters in future.</p>
<h2>When cargo ships catch fire</h2>
<p><a href="https://theloadstar.com/insurers-brace-as-x-press-pearl-blaze-costs-soar-after-environmental-damage/">It is believed</a> the leakage of properly declared, but inappropriately or incorrectly packed or stowed nitric acid caused the X-Press Pearl fire. Nitric acid is a corrosive, toxic and flammable liquid — and the X-Press Pearl was carrying 25 tonnes of it. </p>
<p>Nitric acid is an essential component of ammonium nitrate — a popular fertiliser around the world and a raw ingredient in explosives manufacturing. Impounded ammonium nitrate is what triggered the 2020 explosion that <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-ammonium-nitrate-the-chemical-that-exploded-in-beirut-143979">obliterated the Port of Beirut</a>. </p>
<p>Any <a href="https://www.agcs.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/agcs/agcs/reports/AGCS-Safety-Shipping-Review-2020.pdf">fire on board</a> a ship is a clear risk to the lives of the crew and the environment. Yet, container vessel fires occur frequently. Insurers are notified of fires about once every two weeks and major fires <a href="https://www.ttclub.com/news-and-resources/news/press-releases/2018/tt-club-emphasises-need-for-cargo-integrity-ahead-of-imo-meeting-on-container-safety/">every 60 days</a>. </p>
<p>The source of these fires is changing. Fires once emanated from engines, but they are now just as likely to originate in the cargo itself, with incorrectly packaged or misdeclared chemicals the second-most prevalent cause of fire after charcoal. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/plastic-pollution-scientists-track-a-cargo-spill-from-new-york-to-norway-reveal-how-currents-disperse-harmful-substances-160555">Plastic pollution: scientists track a cargo spill from New York to Norway, reveal how currents disperse harmful substances</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In fact, <a href="https://www.ttclub.com/news-and-resources/news/press-releases/2019/campaign-for-greater-container-safety-must-focus-first-on-dangerous-goods/">data indicate</a> the possibility of more than 150,000 annual cases of undeclared or misdeclared dangerous goods capable of causing fires. The incidence may be higher depending on the shipping route.</p>
<p>Another fire risk has to do with competition between shipping companies, which is based on carrying capacity and efficiency. This has forced an exponential growth in <a href="https://www.agcs.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/agcs/agcs/reports/AGCS-Safety-Shipping-Review-2020.pdf">container ship sizes</a>, which escalates the probability of a fire. It also makes detecting a fire difficult, if not impossible, until it is well advanced.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1397131894270091265"}"></div></p>
<p>Fire safety on ships could be improved with better training to promote best practice in protecting and preserving the integrity of cargo. </p>
<p>SOLAS (Safety of Life at Sea) regulations govern on-board firefighting. But these are outdated, having <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/About/Conventions/Pages/International-Convention-for-the-Safety-of-Life-at-Sea-(SOLAS),-1974.aspx">come into force in 1980</a>. They need to be amended to suit the current era of large and ultra-large vessels, like X-Press Pearl. </p>
<p>Organisational procedures, such as those of <a href="https://ww2.eagle.org/en/news/press-room/abs-issues-guide-for-firefighting-cargo-areas-container-carriers.html">the American Bureau of Shipping</a>, promote earlier fire detection and more efficient methods of fire suppression. They’re better suited to the design and operations of ships in modern maritime industries.</p>
<h2>A tale of two ports</h2>
<p>The nitric acid leak aboard the X-Press Pearl <a href="https://splash247.com/x-press-pearl-was-denied-entry-in-india-and-qatar-before-catching-fire-off-colombo/">was discovered</a> at Hamad Port in Qatar, which refused the ship’s request to discharge the container. The ship made the same request later to Hazira Port in Gujarat, which was also denied.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410065/original/file-20210707-21-qc8xfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410065/original/file-20210707-21-qc8xfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410065/original/file-20210707-21-qc8xfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410065/original/file-20210707-21-qc8xfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410065/original/file-20210707-21-qc8xfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410065/original/file-20210707-21-qc8xfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410065/original/file-20210707-21-qc8xfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410065/original/file-20210707-21-qc8xfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hamad sea port in Qatar.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The disaster at sea could have been avoided had either port offloaded the container. Why did they refuse? And what were their obligations in these circumstances? </p>
<p>It’s unlikely their actions will be examined in the official investigation, which will focus on the causes of the fire and actions of the crew. However, these answers reveal the hugely problematic conditions of shipping operations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/top-three-take-away-lessons-from-the-suez-canal-blockage-158034">Top three take-away lessons from the Suez Canal blockage</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://splash247.com/how-the-x-press-pearl-disaster-could-have-been-avoided/">Both ports claimed</a> they lacked the manpower and equipment to discharge the leaking container. But it’s hard to imagine such recently built, state of the art, and well-resourced facilities — according to their corporate websites — lacking the means to deal with a nitric acid leak.</p>
<p>Ports may be reluctant to accept hazardous vessels because they lack emergency and contingency plans and preparedness. It’s one thing to adopt hazard and environmental policies, but quite another to actually implement them. This would require providing the training, and maintaining the necessary equipment, to address potential threats. </p>
<p>Port services are just as competitive as shipping companies. Ports aim to maximise the moving of containers through terminals. This makes the physical investigation of the contents of containers impossible, and any processing delay unaffordable.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, efficiency and profitability don’t mean quality services should be sacrificed. There are three ways to begin addressing this issue: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>rigorous enforcement of the International Maritime Dangerous Goods regulations, which control their handling and stowage</p></li>
<li><p>better training for supply chain workers who apply these regulations </p></li>
<li><p>stronger sanctions issued by states where cargoes originate, and by shipping companies.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Could the crew have sought shelter?</h2>
<p>The investigation into the X-Press Pearl disaster will reveal whether the crew sought a priority berth for shelter while the ship was engulfed in flames at Colombo port.</p>
<p>Arguably, ships in distress have traditionally enjoyed the “freedom of ports” to seek shelter in the territorial waters of nations if they are facing the total loss of the vessel and its cargo, or the lives of its crew. </p>
<p>But states may deny ships entry if, for instance, they pose a serious threat to the environment or the safety or security of its people. Given the increasing size of vessels and the uncertain nature of the threat they pose, refusal of entry is the norm. </p>
<p>In 2003, following several high-profile incidents, the International Maritime Organization <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Safety/Pages/PlacesOfRefuge.aspx">adopted resolutions</a> creating “places of refuge” for vessels in distress. </p>
<p>These are sheltered waters, and not ports with the infrastructure to counteract serious problems on board. So while refuge may address the threat of fire, it does not avert the far greater risk of environmental pollution.</p>
<p>Places of refuge have assuaged some concerns, but they are not an international obligation. They also tend to be concentrated in developed maritime regions, and are virtually nonexistent where they’re most needed — where substandard vessels carrying illicit dangerous cargoes ply their trade.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mystery-of-the-cargo-ships-that-sink-when-their-cargo-suddenly-liquefies-101158">Mystery of the cargo ships that sink when their cargo suddenly liquefies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It’s important we do not let the X-Press Pearl settle into the background as another spectacular story about a ship ablaze at sea. It should spark change, and serve as the cautionary exemplar of what happens with alarming frequency when we want our goods cheap and now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claudio Bozzi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sri Lanka is still grappling with the consequences of the cargo ship fire, which dumped tonnes of plastic and hazardous chemicals into the ocean.Claudio Bozzi, Lecturer in Law, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1519132021-01-12T05:47:02Z2021-01-12T05:47:02ZAsking people to prepare for fire is pointless if they can’t afford to do it. It’s time we subsidised fire prevention<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374646/original/file-20201214-16-1nhxv3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5599%2C3741&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Once again, Australia is on fire. This year it’s the turn of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-11/bushfire-threatens-lives-in-eastern-parts-of-baldivis-wa/13049268">Western Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/12/south-australia-bushfire-threat-lucindale-risk">South Australia</a>, where bushfires are threatening homes and lives. In the south of Tasmania, conditions are dry and the region is entering a period of peak fire danger.</p>
<p>In the lead up to every bushfire season, the mantra is the same each year: prepare, prepare, prepare. Remove the fuel load. Clean out the gutters. Mow lawns, tidy gardens, create a burnbreak between bushland and your house. Identify your strengths and weaknesses. Have a plan.</p>
<p>After 40 years studying the interaction between humans and fire, I have seen this mantra rolled out every year — and watched, every year, as it is comprehensively ignored by large numbers of people. Why? Because they are bad or lazy? No.</p>
<p>The fact is asking people to prepare for fire is pointless if they can’t afford to do it. If you don’t have time or <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718510000576?casa_token=A-xkIHeq5SgAAAAA:HoKyDh31QsjtGWSVwBkLykw3adcxzonJ32l29DWf-KZv4ASC38EGF9-USpknozc6lXiGLdWjew">money</a> (or both), it doesn’t matter how many times authorities tell you to prepare. It’s not going to happen. What if we had a system, like Medicare, where the cost of these fire prevention measures was subsidised by the public system?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-living-with-fire-and-facing-our-fears-128093">Friday essay: living with fire and facing our fears</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>We know the current system doesn’t work</h2>
<p>Institutions such as local fire authorities, councils or governments can say “we have done our bit and we expect the community to do their part and manage their risk, their property, their bushfire plan”. </p>
<p>But it’s just passing the problem along to the next person, without considering whether they’re able to actually take up that advice. </p>
<p>For years, authorities have essentially handed people a very formidable and expensive checklist of things to do, right up to the level of retrofitting your house to be compliant with modern building standards. These are significant time and financial investments.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CJ92wFsB7Gq/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>The cost of failing to prepare is huge. Bushfire often spreads by embers landing in a series of unprepared properties. If your neighbours don’t make their home defendable, chances are it may cause your house to burn down. </p>
<p>There are many reasons people don’t prepare, and a key one is affordability. If you’re not physically able to get up a ladder to clean your gutters or mow around your property and remove fuel load — and you can’t afford to pay someone to do it — what are you supposed to do?</p>
<p>You might think, “Well, if people choose to live in a bushfire prone area then that’s their problem. Why should they get subsidies?” But there are many reasons people might not be able to prepare, including poverty, old age, and health issues. </p>
<p>And if they don’t prepare, it won’t just affect them; it could create a vector for the fire to spread to other properties. <a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-are-affecting-some-of-australias-most-disadvantaged-communities-68165">Research</a> suggests disasters, including fires, are more likely to occur in low socioeconomic areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374648/original/file-20201214-21-1lxvz0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man cleans leaf litter out of gutters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374648/original/file-20201214-21-1lxvz0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374648/original/file-20201214-21-1lxvz0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374648/original/file-20201214-21-1lxvz0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374648/original/file-20201214-21-1lxvz0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374648/original/file-20201214-21-1lxvz0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374648/original/file-20201214-21-1lxvz0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374648/original/file-20201214-21-1lxvz0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many people are not physically able to get up a ladder to clean gutters and can’t afford to pay someone to do it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s time to look at preventative fire measures the same way we look at preventative healthcare. </p>
<p>Our taxes fund Medicare and public health measures because Australian society recognises it’s cheaper in the long run. It’s cheaper than allowing low-level health problems to fester until they become so threatening they have to be dealt with in the mind-bogglingly expensive emergency department.</p>
<p>In the same way, subsidies for household bushfire preparation would help prevent the vast taxpayer expense incurred for emergency fire-fighting when fire strikes. </p>
<h2>What might the system look like?</h2>
<p>The system could take many forms.</p>
<p>State governments already give vouchers to citizens to incentivise spending in one area. Think of the NSW government’s <a href="https://www.service.nsw.gov.au/campaign/active-kids">Active Kids</a> or <a href="https://www.service.nsw.gov.au/campaign/creative-kids">Creative Kids</a> voucher systems, or its planned <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-17/nsw-budget-includes-$100-vouchers-for-dining-and-entertainment/12887846">dining and entertainment voucher</a> system. </p>
<p>So why not give vouchers you can use to pay someone to clear your gutters, mow your lawn or clear dry grass and other fuel loads?</p>
<p>Insurers could offer lower premiums to people who take action to reduce fire risk around their home by ember-proofing or installing gutter-guard, for example (in the same way there are insurance benefits if you make your house more resistant to being broken into).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374647/original/file-20201214-20-kk3x6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A burnt out house." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374647/original/file-20201214-20-kk3x6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374647/original/file-20201214-20-kk3x6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374647/original/file-20201214-20-kk3x6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374647/original/file-20201214-20-kk3x6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374647/original/file-20201214-20-kk3x6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374647/original/file-20201214-20-kk3x6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374647/original/file-20201214-20-kk3x6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Insurers could offer lower premiums to people who take action to reduce fire risk around their home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Perhaps councils could offer lower rates for low-income people who, in exchange, pay for measures to reduce their fuel load.</p>
<p>Or we could have a bulk-billing system, where you can ask a service provider to assess your home’s risk and do basic fire load reduction, and it’s charged to a Medicare-style system.</p>
<p>To me, these ideas make a lot more sense than more punitive measures being considered in some places, where authorities could clear a fire risk around a house themselves and <a href="http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/557217/Draft_Bushfire_Mitigation_Measures_Bill.pdf">simply send the bill to the occupant or land owner</a>. </p>
<p>The punitive system just puts more pressure on people who may not be able to afford to reduce their home’s fire risk, much less deal with going to court to dispute a bill they’ve been sent. It also means people are less likely to trust and cooperate with fire authorities.</p>
<h2>That sounds expensive</h2>
<p>Yes, I know these ideas are expensive. So is Medicare. So is the pension system. So is the public health response that helped Australia drive the COVID-19 epidemic into submission. But they’re worth it, aren’t they?</p>
<p>And do you know what else is expensive? Doing the same thing every year, even though it doesn’t work.</p>
<p>We have just been through an enormously expensive bushfire royal commission. And as fire expert Kevin Tolhurst points out <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-have-already-had-countless-bushfire-inquiries-what-good-will-it-do-to-have-another-129896">here</a>, we’ve had 57 formal public inquiries, reviews and royal commissions related to bushfires and fire management since 1939. A huge expense to taxpayers.</p>
<p>We know the cost of the Black Summer fires ran <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/experts-recount-cost-of-bushfires-and-government-must-listen-20200528-p54xfd.html">into the billions</a>, with costs to the health system, individuals, businesses and emergency services. </p>
<p>Aerial fire suppression aircraft are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-15/are-bigger-water-bombers-the-answer-to-bushfire-woes/11705502">expensive</a>. Having 100-day firefighting campaign is an extraordinary drain on the public purse — and that’s before you even start counting the cost of economic disruption that comes with it.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-bushfire-and-holiday-seasons-converge-it-may-be-time-to-say-goodbye-to-the-typical-australian-summer-holiday-129337">As bushfire and holiday seasons converge, it may be time to say goodbye to the typical Australian summer holiday</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>It sounds a bit radical</h2>
<p>I know! But radical change is what’s needed — and it’s possible. In early 2020, I <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-bushfire-and-holiday-seasons-converge-it-may-be-time-to-say-goodbye-to-the-typical-australian-summer-holiday-129337">wrote</a> it was time to re-arrange the Australian school calendar around fire seasons and people said this was crazy. But then a few months later we completely rearranged schooling around the pandemic — an idea that, in January, would have seemed completely unworkable. </p>
<p>It turns out radical change is possible when push comes to shove. And for climate change-related fire risk, push really has come to shove.</p>
<p>Our current system involves telling people to create “<a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/documents/20143/69511/CFA-BMO-Defendable-space-Aug-14.pdf/3b306f02-ac41-7110-ec40-68f0acdfa64a">a defendable space</a>” around your house. I’ve been on Google Earth to look to at how that’s played out in many bushland suburbs; you don’t need to be a genius to work out there they are not defendable spaces.</p>
<p>Climate change adaptation does feel radical, but it’s also necessary. </p>
<p>If we are sitting round going into a hotter, drier, more fire-prone world, what are we doing if we are not enabling people to adapt?</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151913/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bowman receives funding to study fire ecology and management from the Australian Research Council (ARC), the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC, and the Tasmanian Government Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and the Environment.</span></em></p>What if we had a system, like Medicare, where costly fire prevention measures were subsidised?David Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1459092020-09-14T11:53:26Z2020-09-14T11:53:26ZWhy gender reveals have spiraled out of control<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357729/original/file-20200911-20-4cstt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=408%2C0%2C1508%2C1020&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's a ... fire!</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/its-a-girl-royalty-free-image/1146739618?adppopup=true">Illustration by Anurag Papolu/The Conversation; photo by milorad kravic/iStock via Getty Images</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over Labor Day weekend, two expectant parents didn’t get the viral hit they had hoped for. </p>
<p>During a gender reveal party in Southern California, a “smoke-generating pyrotechnic device” was supposed to simply reveal a color – pink for a girl, blue for a boy – before a crowd of onlookers. </p>
<p>Instead, it <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/us/el-dorado-fire-gender-reveal-update-trnd/index.html">sparked a wildfire</a> that has scorched more than 10,000 acres of land. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=cYOUU4EAAAAJ&hl=en">As a sociologist</a> who studies how social media is used to navigate gender, identity and life transitions, I’ve watched gender reveal parties become their own mini-industry over the past decade.</p>
<p>The increasingly extravagant parties – fueled by a quest for unique, viral stunts – reflect some of the new bizarre <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2056305117707192">pressures parents face</a> in our “<a href="https://econreview.berkeley.edu/paying-attention-the-attention-economy/">attention economy</a>.”</p>
<h2>Guesswork gives way to certainty</h2>
<p>Gendering children prior to birth is a unique phenomenon of the 20th century.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean parents-to-be didn’t try to make predictions; for centuries, some looked to <a href="https://www.livescience.com/45582-boy-or-girl.html">folklore</a>. “Carrying low” – or having a <a href="https://www.verywellfamily.com/concerns-about-your-pregnant-belly-2759765">baby bump</a> closer to the pelvis – was supposed to mean that the mother would likely give birth to a boy. If the mother found herself craving sweets, that meant a girl was on the way. The baby’s sex was officially announced at birth, and gender reveals happened in postcards, church bulletins or local newspaper listings. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357363/original/file-20200910-16-dtx5tg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357363/original/file-20200910-16-dtx5tg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357363/original/file-20200910-16-dtx5tg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357363/original/file-20200910-16-dtx5tg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357363/original/file-20200910-16-dtx5tg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357363/original/file-20200910-16-dtx5tg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1178&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357363/original/file-20200910-16-dtx5tg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1178&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357363/original/file-20200910-16-dtx5tg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1178&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Birth announcements in a 1957 issue of the Lansing State Journal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">newspapers.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1958, a team of Scottish physicians <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3987368/">conducted</a> what’s believed to be the first fetal ultrasound. However, sex identification via ultrasound wasn’t widely practiced in American hospitals until the late-1970s. Only then were advances in the technology able to produce high-quality portraits of babies. By the 1990s, iconic gray-scale images tagged with body parts became the norm. Expectant parents displayed sonograms on home refrigerators and called loved ones to share the news, but there wasn’t the pageantry of a big reveal. </p>
<h2>Performing parenthood in the digital age</h2>
<p>It wasn’t until the proliferation of social media platforms that parties centered on the revelation of a baby’s sex became commonplace.</p>
<p>In 2008, blogger Jenna Karvunidis cut into a cake at a party with her family. Inside the cake was pink frosting, revealing to everyone in the room that she would be having a girl. Her blog post about the party <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/28/745990073/woman-who-popularized-gender-reveal-parties-says-her-views-on-gender-have-change">went viral</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09589236.2017.1287066">The modern gender reveal</a> was born. </p>
<p>Most involve a gathering of family and friends who weigh in with their predictions before the moment of the big reveal. The parents-to-be cut a custom cake, pop a confetti-filled balloon or set off a glitter bomb that will reveal gender-stereotyped pink or blue. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vc2ArWcZ7o">Guests cheer</a>. <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=267082260877800">The couple kisses</a>. Cameras capture it all.</p>
<p>Social media fueled an uptick in gender reveals with the launch of visual platforms like Pinterest and Instagram in 2010. These platforms have inspired parents to participate in “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15405702.2016.1223300">sharenting</a>” – in which parents post photos and stories about their children – and to use social media as a how-to manual for <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1086/695700">navigating the challenges</a> of parenting.</p>
<p>What were once intimate rituals among loved ones are now shared publicly for friends and strangers alike. </p>
<p>But how, in just over a decade, did gender reveals go from pink icing in a cake to fireworks and wildfires?</p>
<h2>How to thrive in the attention economy</h2>
<p>On social media, the more unique, absurd, gripping or funny the image, the more likely it is to go viral. Everyday people who figure out how to tap the right algorithmic veins can become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/19392397.2016.1218292">microcelebrities</a>, while babies can capture the limelight as “<a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/76135/">micro-microcelebrities</a>” before they’re even born. Some parents give their future children custom hashtags. Others give them their own social media accounts. </p>
<p>The idea is to tap into the lucrative <a href="https://read.dukeupress.edu/public-culture/article-abstract/27/1%20(75)/137/31071/Instafame-Luxury-Selfies-in-the-Attention-Economy?redirectedFrom=fulltext">attention economy</a>, which uses the currency of views, shares and likes to monetize life experiences. Merely having a child is not exciting enough for the internet; the child needs to come into the world surrounded by shock and awe. </p>
<p>For a gender reveal stunt, parents might <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43568628">wrangle alligators</a>, kick exploding <a href="https://youtu.be/Q0wvvq1kz7Y?t=20">footballs</a>, shoot <a href="https://youtu.be/vQ6o2WOnsRU?t=15">clay pigeons</a> or <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/ByDkugzHg7r/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=embed_video_watch_again">jump from airplanes</a> – ceremonies that can be more reflective of the parents’ identities, hobbies and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/19392397.2016.1218292">online brand</a> than anything to do with a baby. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1304248149196840960"}"></div></p>
<p>Ultimately, these increasingly outlandish gender reveals align perfectly with the values of an <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=kZAWAAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA274&dq=always+on+social+media&ots=WRDE99gHwb&sig=zoglp8TPGkBBOtTELauik8bXALQ#v=onepage&q=always%20on%20social%20media&f=false">always-on</a> digital consumer culture that is always <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1080/15295036.2017.1394582">scrolling</a> for the next best thing.</p>
<h2>The rise of gender reveal capitalism</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, a booming industry promoting and encouraging gender reveals has emerged.</p>
<p>Custom cakes, <a href="https://www.partycity.com/baby-shower-gender-reveal">themed party supplies</a>, confetti cannons, smoke bombs and t-shirts are designed to create the perfect Instagram post. Celebrity and influencer gender reveals are vehicles for <a href="https://www.essence.com/love/danielle-brooks-a-little-bit-pregnant-netflix-having-a-girl/">brand sponsorships</a>, <a href="https://www.today.com/parents/jessica-alba-enlists-daughters-cute-gender-reveal-baby-no-3-t118015">product placements</a> and media coverage.</p>
<p>The marketplace even adapted to the coronavirus pandemic by offering “It’s a girl” <a href="https://www.etsy.com/listing/829866847/baby-shower-masks-cute-baby-shower-gift">masks</a>, “It’s a boy” <a href="https://www.etsy.com/listing/209713934/gender-reveal-party-favor-labels-gender">hand sanitizers</a> and even <a href="https://genderrevealgame.com/">gender reveal games</a> that can be played virtually. </p>
<p>Parents, particularly mothers, already face intense scrutiny and cultural expectations of “<a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1177/0093650214534969">ideal motherhood</a>,” whether it’s the decision to breastfeed, have a “natural birth” or go back to work. Whether or not to have a gender reveal has become yet another “choice” that expectant parents must make.</p>
<p>Even the decision not to have a gender reveal becomes a form of social media currency. For example, social media influencer Iskra Lawrence <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/B58JPJiAqtq/">announced on Instagram</a> that she would not have a gender reveal – and included sponsored links to a clothing brand in the post.</p>
<p>Gender reveals are sometimes <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2019/7/31/20708816/gender-reveal-party-social-media-game-pink-blue-fire">sneered at</a> for <a href="http://pcasite.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/PCA_v.70.3_SOI.GR_2014.pdf#page=51">reinforcing a gender binary</a>, encouraging wasteful extravagance and creating very real <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50207452">safety hazards</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>But distilling a gender reveal party down to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1350506815576602">foolish choices</a> of expectant parents ignores the cultural and economic forces that shape these decisions. It allows us to mock individuals for their parenting decisions rather than criticize the attention economy for having incentivized these reveals.</p>
<p>We have the excesses of capitalism <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/18/ending-climate-change-end-capitalism">to thank</a> for a rapidly changing climate that has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/09/climate/nyt-climate-newsletter-california-wildfires.html">worsened fires raging throughout the American West</a>. </p>
<p>Is a fire burning thanks to a gender reveal party fueled by anything different?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145909/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jenna Drenten does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Increasingly outlandish gender reveal parties align perfectly with the values of an economy that’s always scrolling for the next best thing.Jenna Drenten, Associate Professor of Marketing, Loyola University ChicagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1262802019-12-26T21:39:18Z2019-12-26T21:39:18ZHunter, hunted: when the world catches on fire, how do predators respond?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307092/original/file-20191216-123983-zl0wl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some predators, including red foxes, move into burnt areas after fires pass through.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/30142279@N07/36951215834/in/photolist-YifD7b-2f9PkaX-274jZ5X-2et128d-W59pyK-N11WUx-Rzrhhz-2aTM1mw-thmtMu-56R9mv-2gyEZuy-2gjoeG6-2gijQXe-ZiD5s1-S3xtx2-JSAS5x-XNsU3n-JTzCcu-WRZHmn-2bULFk3-78Xk5M-q3Ff3T-C1YXPW-2d7dkSC-Pfdyxm-PCF7uK-BsZknF-SJveRd-PfdyvC-wtZBG5-Gi3CeF-PCF7rP-BUAWza-wu7Xqt-VtTgMo-vPA8pm-Em1T2c-pdpiq8-hdHGPu-v2PSPG-r1U9YW-N5u2tj-CqnFux-rikDKa-wM7sVT-ChfKjz-CpxDiV-wtZBGq-2gyFoxo-pdpipg">Alexandre Roux/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>2019 might well be remembered as the year the world caught fire. Some <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2019/dec/07/how-big-are-the-fires-burning-on-the-east-coast-of-australia-interactive-map">2.9 million hectares</a> of eastern Australia have been incinerated in the past few months, an area roughly the same size as Belgium. Fires in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-amazon-is-on-fire-here-are-5-things-you-need-to-know-122326">Amazon</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/huge-wildfires-in-the-arctic-and-far-north-send-a-planetary-warning-121167">Arctic</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_California_wildfires">California</a> captured global attention. </p>
<p>As climate change continues, <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/324/5926/481">large, intense, and severe fires</a> will become more common. But what does this mean for the animals living in fire-prone environments?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-were-the-kindling-and-now-the-east-coast-is-ablaze-126750">Drought and climate change were the kindling, and now the east coast is ablaze</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our new research, published recently in the <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1365-2656.13153">Journal of Animal Ecology</a>, looked at studies from around the world to identify how predators respond to fire. </p>
<p>We found some species seem to benefit from fires, others appear to be vulnerable, and some seem indifferent. In a changing climate, it’s urgent we understand how fires affect predators – and hence potentially their prey –in order to keep ecosystems healthy.</p>
<h2>Predators: the good and the bad</h2>
<p>Large predators, like wolves and lions, often play important roles in ecosystems, <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/333/6040/301">regulating food webs</a> by reducing the numbers or <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2012.02207.x">changing the behaviour</a> of herbivores and smaller predators. Many large predators are <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/343/6167/1241484.full">in dire straits</a> within their native range, while introduced predators, such as feral cats and red foxes, have spread to new regions, where they have <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/113/40/11261.short">devastated native wildlife </a>. </p>
<p>Fires can offer new opportunities as well as problems to predators. Some predators take advantage of charred, more open landscapes <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/srep22559">to hunt</a> vulnerable prey; others rely on thick vegetation to launch an ambush. </p>
<p>But until now, we have not known which predators are drawn to fire, which are repelled by it, and which don’t care either way. Synthesising information on how different kinds of predators (for example, large or small, pursuit or ambush) respond to fire is vital for both the conservation of top predators and to help protect native prey from introduced predators. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307302/original/file-20191216-124016-zi9jvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307302/original/file-20191216-124016-zi9jvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307302/original/file-20191216-124016-zi9jvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307302/original/file-20191216-124016-zi9jvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307302/original/file-20191216-124016-zi9jvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307302/original/file-20191216-124016-zi9jvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307302/original/file-20191216-124016-zi9jvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307302/original/file-20191216-124016-zi9jvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Predators are reacting differently to fire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam Stevenson/Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Some like it hot</h2>
<p>Our research reviewed studies from around the world to identify how different vertebrate predators (birds, mammals and reptiles) respond to fire in different ecosystems.</p>
<p>We found 160 studies on the response of 188 predator species to fire, including wolves, coyotes, foxes, cats, hawks, owls, goannas and snakes, amongst others. The studies came from 20 different countries, although most were from North America or Australia, and focused on canine and feline species. </p>
<p>Some predators seem to like fire: they are more abundant, or spend more time in, recently burnt areas than areas that escape fire. Our review found red foxes (<em>Vulpes vulpes</em>) mostly responded positively to fire and become more active in burned areas. </p>
<p>Raptors have even been observed in Northern Australia <a href="https://bioone.org/journals/journal-of-ethnobiology/volume-37/issue-4/0278-0771-37.4.700/Intentional-Fire-Spreading-by-Firehawk-Raptors-in-Northern-Australia/10.2993/0278-0771-37.4.700.short">carrying burning sticks</a>, helping to spread fire and targeting prey as they flee the fire.</p>
<p>For other predators, fire is bad news. Following Californian wildfires, numbers of <a href="https://bioone.org/journals/Journal-of-Herpetology/volume-44/issue-3/08-143.1/Reptile-and-Amphibian-Responses-to-Large-Scale-Wildfires-in-Southern/10.1670/08-143.1.full?casa_token=W9dcfQSw1JgAAAAA%3aXqa0TghSRmIC9vV_rvfztFrvwQ5L-ilVPzFCSxAQihczP1Qm8_CHQu02OTxCRRQVy7Wzja_B9Q">eastern racer snakes</a> fell in burnt areas. Likewise, lions <a href="https://academic.oup.com/cz/article/59/3/335/1790973">avoid recently burned areas</a>, because they rely on dense vegetation from which to ambush prey.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306513/original/file-20191212-85397-yxk4so.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306513/original/file-20191212-85397-yxk4so.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306513/original/file-20191212-85397-yxk4so.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306513/original/file-20191212-85397-yxk4so.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306513/original/file-20191212-85397-yxk4so.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306513/original/file-20191212-85397-yxk4so.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306513/original/file-20191212-85397-yxk4so.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A global summary of studies examining predators and fire.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The authors of the papers we reviewed thought food availability, vegetation cover, and competition with other predators were the most important things affecting species’ responses to fire.</p>
<p>But perhaps more surprising was that most species, including bobcats and the striped skunk, appeared largely unaffected by fire. Of the affected species, some (such as spotted owls) responded differently to fire in different places. </p>
<p>Overall, we found it is difficult to predict how a predator species will respond to fire.</p>
<h2>We still have a lot to learn</h2>
<p>Our results show while many predators appear to adapt to the changes that fires bring about, some species are impacted by fire, both negatively and positively. The problem is that, with a few exceptions, we will struggle to know how a given fire will affect a predator species without local knowledge. This means environmental managers need to monitor the local outcomes of fire management, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-surprising-answer-to-a-hot-question-controlled-burns-often-fail-to-slow-a-bushfire-127022">fuel reduction burns</a>. </p>
<p>There may be situations in which predator management needs to be coupled with fire management to help prevent native wildlife becoming fox food after fire. There has even been trials to see if <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-04/bushfire-shelters-to-protect-wildlife-during-heat/11749480">artificial shelters</a> can help protect native wildlife from introduced predators after fire.</p>
<h2>Getting our knowledge base right</h2>
<p>One thing that has hampered our research is the lack of contextual information in many studies. No two fires are the same – they differ in size, intensity, severity, and season – but these details are often absent. The literature is also biased towards dog-like and cat species, and there are few studies on the response of predators to fire in Africa, Asia, and South America. </p>
<p>It is important to note that some predator responses to fire may be overlooked due to the way experiments were carried out, or because monitoring happened <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jmammal/article/98/3/835/3063279">too long after the fire</a>.</p>
<p>Unifying how fire, predator numbers and environmental features are recorded would help future studies predict how predators might react to different types of fires in various situations. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-are-pushing-species-towards-extinction-54109">Bushfires are pushing species towards extinction</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>As wildfires become more frequent and severe under <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/324/5926/481">climate change</a>, understanding how fire intensity and frequency shapes predator populations and their prey will be critical for effective and informed ecosystem management and conservation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126280/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Euan Ritchie receives funding from the Australian Research Council, The Australia and Pacific Science Foundation, The Hermon Slade Foundation, Australian Geographic, Parks Victoria, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, and the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. Euan Ritchie is a Director (Media Working Group) of the Ecological Society of Australia, and a member of the Australian Mammal Society.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ayesha Tulloch receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is the Vice President of Policy and Outreach and co-convenes the Science Communication Chapter for the Ecological Society of Australia, and is affiliated with Birdlife Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dale Nimmo receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Hermon Slade Foundation, the Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, and the Australian Academy of Science. He is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Doherty receives funding from the Hermon Slade Foundation, NSW Environment Trust, Australian Academy of Science, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, and the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. He is board member of the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania and a member of the Ecological Society of Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Geary is affiliated with the Department of Environment, Land, Water & Planning and receives funding from Parks Victoria.</span></em></p>Some predators thrive after fires, other wilt – and one bird even starts them on purpose.Euan Ritchie, Associate Professor in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin UniversityAyesha Tulloch, DECRA Research Fellow, University of SydneyDale Nimmo, Associate professor/ARC DECRA fellow, Charles Sturt UniversityTim Doherty, Alfred Deakin Post-doctoral Research Fellow, Deakin UniversityWilliam Geary, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1263462019-11-21T19:32:51Z2019-11-21T19:32:51ZCurious Kids: why does wood crackle in a fire?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300013/original/file-20191104-88428-inlkf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C0%2C3464%2C2307&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If you've ever put wet wood on to a fire, you may have noticed it makes a lot more noise than dry wood.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><hr>
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<p><strong>Why does wood crackle in a fire? – Rocco, age 6 (nearly 7!)</strong></p>
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<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/curious-kids-36782"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291898/original/file-20190911-190031-enlxbk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=90&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="100%"></a></p>
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<p>Hi Rocco, that’s a great question. I love sitting in front of a fire, listening to it crackle and pop. </p>
<p>These noises are caused by pockets of trapped steam suddenly escaping, making a mini explosion! </p>
<p>To know why this happens, we need to understand what happens when you place a wooden log on a fire. First, the wood starts getting hotter. Inside the wood are pockets of trapped water and tree sap, which is the sticky stuff you sometimes see on trees.</p>
<p>In the same way water in a kettle heats up and turns into steam, so does the water trapped inside the log. So as the fire gets hotter, the water and sap inside start to boil and turn into gas. As the fire gets even hotter, these gases start to take up more space and expand (get bigger).</p>
<h2>How do the gases burst out?</h2>
<p>While the water and sap turn into steam, something also happens to the wood. Wood contains something called cellulose, which is the stuff that plants are mostly made out of.</p>
<p>When cellulose is heated, it starts to break down, or “decompose”. If you’ve ever forgotten an apple in your lunchbox over the weekend, and it turns brown and yucky, that means it has decomposed. When something in nature (like a piece of fruit) decomposes, it changes. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-when-i-swipe-a-matchstick-how-does-it-make-fire-116673">Curious Kids: when I swipe a matchstick how does it make fire?</a>
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<p>When wood in a fire gets hot enough, the cellulose inside starts to turn into gas. This is when we see smoke coming out of the wood, sometimes even before that piece of wood has burst into flames. </p>
<p>The flames happen when the gas escaping from the wood starts to mix with the oxygen in the air. Oxygen is like food for fires – it makes them burn really bright.</p>
<p>As wood burns, the mix of expanding gases and cellulose breaking down makes the pockets of trapped steam burst open from the wood, one by one. This is why you hear the crackling and popping noises. </p>
<p>So the more water and sap there is inside the wood, the noisier the fire will be. If you’ve ever put damp wood on a fire, you may have noticed it makes a lot more noise than really dry wood.</p>
<h2>How does the wood get water inside it?</h2>
<p>But how does water and sap get inside wood in the first place?</p>
<p>Well, wood isn’t quite as solid as it looks. It has many tiny holes, too small for our eyes to see, and these holes have water and sap inside them. </p>
<p>We know wood comes from trees. And when trees are alive, they stay healthy by carrying water up their trunk through these tiny holes, which are called xylem vessels. When the tree is chopped down to make firewood, there is still water trapped inside these xylem vessels. </p>
<p>There are other ways water can get inside wood. If firewood is left out in the rain, it can soak up water that way. Or sometimes insects make small holes in the wood, which let water in.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-do-bushfires-start-116664">Curious Kids: how do bushfires start?</a>
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<p>Sitting in front of a fire watching the flames and listening to the wood crackle and pop can be fun. Most of the time the mini explosions of the steam escaping are small. </p>
<p>But sometimes they can be big, and might even cause small chunks of burning wood to fly out of the fire! This is why it’s important always to keep a safe distance from a fire, or to use a fireguard.</p>
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<p><em>The author thanks her nephews Aldous Nolan (6) and Fergus Nolan (5) for helping to improve this answer.</em></p>
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<p><em>Hello, curious kids! Have you got a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126346/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachael Helene Nolan receives funding from the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, funded through the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (formerly OEH) and has previously received funding from the Australian Government's Innovation Connections programme in conjunction with GreenCollar.</span></em></p>Water and sap inside the wood make mini explosions as they turn into gas and burst out. That’s why damp wood makes the noisiest fires.Rachael Helene Nolan, Postdoctoral research fellow, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1267502019-11-11T03:39:09Z2019-11-11T03:39:09ZDrought and climate change were the kindling, and now the east coast is ablaze<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301011/original/file-20191111-194633-1ie3208.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Multiple large, intense fires are stretching from Australia's coast to the tablelands and parts of the interior</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Supplied, JPSS</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week saw an unprecedented outbreak of large, intense fires stretching from the mid-north coast of New South Wales into central Queensland.</p>
<p>The most tragic losses are concentrated in northern NSW, where 970,000 hectares have been burned, three people have died, and at least 150 homes have been destroyed. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fdr-and-tobans">catastrophic fire warning</a> for Tuesday has been issued for the Greater Sydney, Greater Hunter, Shoalhaven and Illawarra areas. It is the first time Sydney has received a catastrophic rating since the rating system was developed in 2009.</p>
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<p>No relief is in sight from this extremely hot, dry and windy weather, and the extraordinary magnitude of these fires is likely to increase in the coming week. Alarmingly, as Australians increasingly seek a sea-change or tree-change, more people are living in the path of these destructive fires.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-only-october-so-whats-with-all-these-bushfires-new-research-explains-it-124091">It's only October, so what's with all these bushfires? New research explains it</a>
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<h2>Unprecedented state of emergency</h2>
<p>Large fires have happened before in northern NSW and southern Queensland during spring and early summer (for example in 1994, 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2018 in northern NSW). But this latest extraordinary situation raises many questions.</p>
<p>It is as if many of the major fires in the past are now being rerun concurrently. What is unprecedented is the <em>size</em> and <em>number</em> of fires rather than the seasonal timing.</p>
<p>The potential for large, intense fires is determined by <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00512.x">four fundamental ingredients</a>: a continuous expanse of fuel; extensive and continuous dryness of that fuel; weather conditions conducive to the rapid spread of fire; and ignitions, either human or lightning. These act as a set of switches, in series: all must be “on” for major fires to occur.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301032/original/file-20191111-194628-1xowzaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301032/original/file-20191111-194628-1xowzaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301032/original/file-20191111-194628-1xowzaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301032/original/file-20191111-194628-1xowzaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301032/original/file-20191111-194628-1xowzaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301032/original/file-20191111-194628-1xowzaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1045&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301032/original/file-20191111-194628-1xowzaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1045&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301032/original/file-20191111-194628-1xowzaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1045&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Live fuel moisture content in late October 2019. The ‘dry’ and ‘transitional’ moisture categories correspond to conditions associated with over 95% of historical area burned by bushfire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GL0686140">Estimated from MODIS satellite imagery for the Sydney basin Bioregion.</a></span>
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<p>The NSW north coast and tablelands, along with much of the southern coastal regions of Queensland are famous for their diverse range of eucalypt forest, heathlands and rainforests, which flourish in the warm temperate to subtropical climate. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-bringing-a-new-world-of-bushfires-123261">Climate change is bringing a new world of bushfires</a>
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<p>These forests and shrublands can rapidly accumulate bushfire fuels such as leaf litter, twigs and grasses. The unprecedented drought across much of Australia has created exceptional dryness, including high-altitude areas and places like gullies, water courses, swamps and steep south-facing slopes that are normally too wet to burn. </p>
<p>These typically wet parts of the landscape have literally evaporated, allowing fire to spread unimpeded. The drought has been particularly acute in northern NSW where record low rainfall has led to <a href="https://biocollect.ala.org.au/acsa/project/index/77285a13-e231-49e8-b212-660c66c74bac">widespread defoliation and tree death</a>. It is no coincidence current fires correspond directly with hotspots of <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/">record low rainfall and above-average temperatures</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301040/original/file-20191111-194650-458t68.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301040/original/file-20191111-194650-458t68.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301040/original/file-20191111-194650-458t68.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301040/original/file-20191111-194650-458t68.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301040/original/file-20191111-194650-458t68.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301040/original/file-20191111-194650-458t68.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301040/original/file-20191111-194650-458t68.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301040/original/file-20191111-194650-458t68.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Annual trends in live fuel moisture. The horizontal line represents the threshold for the critical ‘dry’ fuel category, which corresponds to the historical occurrence of most major wildfires in the Bioregion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Estimated from MODIS imagery for the Sydney basin Bioregion</span></span>
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<p>Thus, the North Coast and northern ranges of NSW as well as much of southern and central Queensland have been primed for major fires. A continuous swathe of critically dry fuels across these diverse landscapes existed well before last week, as shown by damaging fires in September and October.</p>
<p>High temperatures and wind speeds, low humidity, and a wave of new ignitions on top of pre-existing fires has created an unprecedented situation of multiple large, intense fires stretching from the coast to the tablelands and parts of the interior. </p>
<h2>More people in harm’s way</h2>
<p>Many parts of the NSW north coast, southern Queensland and adjacent hinterlands have seen population growth around major towns and cities, as people look for pleasant coastal and rural homes away from the capital cities.</p>
<p>The extraordinary number and ferocity of these fires, plus the increased exposure of people and property, have contributed to the tragic results of the past few days.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-bushfire-can-destroy-a-home-110795">How a bushfire can destroy a home</a>
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<p>Communities flanked by forests along the coast and ranges are highly vulnerable because of the way fires spread under the influence of strong westerly winds. Coastal communities wedged between highly flammable forests and heathlands and the sea, are particularly at risk. </p>
<p>As a full picture of the extent and location of losses and damage becomes available, we will see the extent to which planning, building regulations, and fire preparation has mitigated losses and damage.</p>
<p>These unprecedented fires are an indication that a much-feared future under climate change may have arrived <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222328">earlier than predicted</a>. The week ahead will present high-stakes new challenges.</p>
<p>The most heavily populated region of the nation is now at critically dry levels of fuel moisture, below those at the time of the disastrous Christmas fires of 2001 and 2013. Climate change has been predicted to <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF08133">strongly increase</a> the chance of large fires across this region. The conditions for Tuesday are a real and more extreme manifestation of these longstanding predictions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/where-to-take-refuge-in-your-home-during-a-bushfire-72370">Where to take refuge in your home during a bushfire</a>
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<p>Whatever the successes and failures in this crisis, it is likely that we will have to rethink the way we plan and prepare for wildfires in a hotter, drier and more flammable world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126750/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ross Bradstock receives funding from the ARC, the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub via the NSW Department of Planning Industry and Envionment, as well as the Victorian Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachael Helene Nolan receives funding from the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, funded through the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (formerly OEH) and has previously received funding from the Australian Government's Innovation Connections programme in conjunction with GreenCollar.</span></em></p>They escaped to the coast for the quiet life, but now sea-changers are in the path of monster fires.Ross Bradstock, Professor, Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of WollongongRachael Helene Nolan, Postdoctoral research fellow, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1260142019-11-04T19:51:40Z2019-11-04T19:51:40ZCalifornia is living America’s dystopian future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300143/original/file-20191104-88368-1gbyizk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Maria Fire billows above Santa Paula, California on Oct. 31.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/California-Wildfires/3f3efad7c19c41848e9513101aaab035/7/0">AP/Noah Berger</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Golden State is on fire, which means that an idea of American utopia is on fire, too. </p>
<p>Utopias are the good places of our imagination, while dystopias are the places where everything goes terribly wrong, where evil triumphs and nature destroys her own. Frequently utopias and dystopias are the same place, because perfection may not be possible without someone suffering. </p>
<p>Ursula LeGuin writes about this paradox in “<a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/9780062470973/the-ones-who-walk-away-from-omelas/">The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas</a>,” a story about the moral dilemma of living in a city called Omelas whose prosperity is made possible by one child’s pain. As the story’s title makes clear, most people don’t walk away from the beautiful place, even when its secret is known. </p>
<p>California often finds itself the Omelas of the American imagination. For some, it’s the beautiful place where having it all means shafting someone else, as in <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0071315/">Roman Polanski’s “Chinatown,”</a> about Los Angeles’ theft of water from the Owens Valley. Or as in the magical theme park, Disneyland, which substantially <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/02/28/589456403/some-disneyland-employees-struggle-to-pay-for-food-shelter-survey-finds">underpays some of its workers</a>.</p>
<p>The novelists <a href="https://octaviabutler.org/">Octavia Butler</a>, <a href="https://www.edanlepucki.com/">Edan Lepucki</a>, <a href="http://www.karltarogreenfeld.com/karltarogreenfeld/home.html">Karl Taro Greenfeld</a>, <a href="https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/authors/interviews/article/51699-q-a-with-paolo-bacigalupi.html">Paolo Bacigalupi</a> and <a href="https://lannan.org/bios/claire-watkins">Claire Vaye Watkins</a> are among the many who have imagined the Golden State as a dystopian novel. In their novels, California is either on fire, in extreme drought or both. They all picture California’s descent as a combination of climate crisis and social unrest.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/silicon-valley-from-hearts-delight-to-toxic-wasteland-86983">Silicon Valley, from 'heart’s delight' to toxic wasteland</a>
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<p>For these authors, climate change hints at the dark secret of the perfect place, of bad decisions that all America shares. Their novels suggest that if California looks like a dystopia before other American places, that’s because it’s often in the lead. </p>
<p>“California is America fast-forward,” sociologist <a href="https://stateofresistancebook.com/about">Manuel Pastor says</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300145/original/file-20191104-88409-u7lyde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300145/original/file-20191104-88409-u7lyde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300145/original/file-20191104-88409-u7lyde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300145/original/file-20191104-88409-u7lyde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300145/original/file-20191104-88409-u7lyde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300145/original/file-20191104-88409-u7lyde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300145/original/file-20191104-88409-u7lyde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300145/original/file-20191104-88409-u7lyde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Building next to – and in – wildlands increases the risks of a fire. Here, smoke engulfs the Ronald Reagan Library during the Easy Fire, Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2019, in Simi Valley, California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/CORRECTION-APTOPIX-California-Wildfires-Blackout/bef60c3f6e3c4652b0dd6a0130788440/3/0">AP/Christian Monterossa</a></span>
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<h2>‘Ecology of fear’</h2>
<p>The wildfires that ravage California light up America’s screens with terror. Suburban homes are stripped to their foundations; Samaritans lead horses from burning barns. </p>
<p>The historian Mike Davis reminds us that California has long seemed an <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Ecology_of_Fear.html?id=_WhrAKFa5aEC">“ecology of fear” for Euro-Americans</a>. Settlers from Northern Europe and the East Coast did not understand Southern California’s climate, which is prone to unpredictability and drought. </p>
<p>“It is Walden Pond on LSD,” Davis writes, meaning that it is a psychedelic version of American nature spots like Walden Pond, in New England.</p>
<p>The unfamiliarity of California’s climate led to poor decisions about where to build from the start. Now Californians, like most western Americans, <a href="https://apnews.com/c0b921678a4447a695b3e396d960f33f">live too close to their wildlands</a>, which are drying into tinderboxes. </p>
<p>“In the United States, there are now more than 46 million single family homes, several hundred thousand businesses, and 120 million people living and working in and around the country’s forests,” <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/firestorm">writes the journalist Edward Struzik</a>, in “Firestorm,” his book about “how wildfire will shape our future.” </p>
<p>America has created the combustible environment called intermix, where residential and commercial uses spill into wildlands. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange/americans-demand-climate-action-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1TR15W">America craves inexpensive electricity</a>, too, which means that overhead power lines run through forests and chaparral. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2019/10/28/pge-says-faulty-power-lines-may-have-sparked-2-california-wildfires/#6f2e9ec82584">Overhead lines have sparked</a> some of the worst recent fires in California and other American places like New Mexico and Tennessee.</p>
<p>California utility company PG&E estimates the cost for converting overhead to underground lines <a href="https://www.pgecurrents.com/2017/10/31/facts-about-undergrounding-electric-lines/">at US$3 million per mile</a>. While cost estimates vary, such a project surely will be expensive and might take a century to complete. </p>
<p>Overhead infrastructure wasn’t made for extreme weather, like the estimated 80 mph winds that inspired a rare “extreme red flag” <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-29/getty-fire-punishing-santa-ana-winds-the-strongest-of-the-season-build-as-blaze-grows">warning in Southern California</a>. </p>
<h2>Pleasure in the state’s demise</h2>
<p>On fire, California is a dystopian novel that the rest of America reads avidly, and at times with <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-it-feel-good-to-see-someone-fail-107349">schadenfreude</a>, that feeling of joy that a person may take in another’s suffering. </p>
<p>California ranks as one of the happiest states in the U.S., <a href="http://info.healthways.com/hubfs/Gallup-Healthways%20State%20of%20American%20Well-Being_2016%20State%20Rankings%20vFINAL.pdf?">at number 13</a>. But California came in last in a 2012 poll <a href="https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_US_022112.pdf">on which states Americans like</a>. </p>
<p>Maybe it’s the happiness that annoys others, which some perceive as phony (“tofu,” “silicone” and “dyed hair,” <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/ted-cruz-warns-democrats-want-bring-tofu-and-dyed-hair-texas-1112834">said Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, about what is wrong with California)</a>. </p>
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<p>When California was on fire in 2018, with thousands missing and dozens dead, <a href="https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1061168803218948096?lang=en">President Donald Trump tweeted that the state mismanaged its forests</a>. He tweeted the same thing during the recent fires, <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1190995034163892226">with more force.</a> Schadenfreude? Arguably, the nation is struggling to address the fire challenges of the intermix, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-wildfires-are-not-alike-but-the-us-is-fighting-them-that-way-99251">California is ahead of the rest</a>.</p>
<p>California supposedly is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/16/upshot/political-migration-a-new-business-of-moving-out-to-fit-in.html">most hated by conservatives</a>. But it nurtured the careers of conservative icons <a href="https://governors.library.ca.gov/33-Reagan.html">Ronald Reagan</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Rush-Limbaugh">Rush Limbaugh</a>, plus a pair of conservative ballot measures, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-08-14/california-proposition-13-business-taxes-split-roll">Prop 13</a> and <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-29/proposition-187-california-pete-wilson-essay">Prop 187</a>, that cut taxes as well as services to immigrants. </p>
<p>It is also the birthplace of modern progressive movements, from the <a href="http://nfwm.org/campaigns/ufw/">United Farm Workers</a> to <a href="https://www.ocregister.com/2017/04/21/how-california-became-the-first-environmental-battleground/">environmentalism</a>. California has been a <a href="https://medium.com/s/state-of-the-future/americas-paralyzed-politics-today-is-california-s-15-years-ago-5fc9c50eebc3">seedbed of American political passions</a>, to the Right and Left. Perhaps that’s why it arouses passion – and envy.</p>
<h2>Confronting the secret</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20718544?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Dystopian thought criticizes what it loves</a> in an attempt to make it better.</p>
<p>If California is living a dystopian novel, it is also a first responder to <a href="https://theconversation.com/california-wildfires-signal-the-arrival-of-a-planetary-fire-age-125972">the fires of a changing planet</a>. </p>
<p>Some of the state’s utility companies are getting smarter about <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-edison-wildfire-mitigation-plan-20190206-story.html">infrastructure fixes</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/10/28/fires-rage-california-refines-an-important-skill-evacuating/">Evacuations are going better</a> in the places where evacuations happened before. Californians voted in a <a href="https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/cc/ab32/ab32.htm">landmark cap-and-trade bill</a> to curb greenhouse gas emissions, and <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12072017/california-cap-trade-climate-legislation-AB32-carbon-trading-rewrite">now they are trying to improve on it</a>. </p>
<p>The state’s climate policy and <a href="https://capitolweekly.net/for-california-schools-2020-could-prove-historic/">renewed support for investment in public education</a> signal that it is getting past the nation’s racial generation gap, where older white voters don’t see themselves in a demographically browner youth <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-next-generation-looks-racially-different-from-the-last-political-tensions-rise-90209">and resist funding them</a>.</p>
<p>Living in Omelas means either compromising with injustice or learning how to make the world better before others even know that it’s broken. </p>
<p>Stay tuned. </p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend.</a> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126014/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie LeMenager does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>‘California is America fast-forward,’ writes one scholar. Does that mean that the dystopian infernos that have consumed parts of the state are simply a picture of what awaits the rest of America?Stephanie LeMenager, Professor of English Literature, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1250692019-10-11T09:38:32Z2019-10-11T09:38:32ZWhat science tells us about fire hazards facing Cape Town and its surrounds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296410/original/file-20191010-188819-xmrl54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A fire rages through wetlands close to Cape Town in February 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Nic Bothma</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s Cape Peninsula – home to the picturesque city of Cape Town – is part of the only region in the world with fynbos. Fynbos is the world’s <a href="https://thefynbosguy.com/fynbos-easy-introduction/">most diverse vegetation type</a> – even more so than tropical rainforests. </p>
<p>Cape Town city surrounds the Cape Peninsula, the south-western extremity of the African continent, the remaining natural areas forming part of Table Mountain National Park. </p>
<p>The city has encroached ever closer to nature, developing deeper into the mountain fynbos. Alien plantations have resulted in <a href="https://theconversation.com/invasive-alien-plants-in-south-africa-pose-huge-risks-but-they-can-be-stopped-94186">infestations of alien trees</a>. Some citizens have been careless with inappropriate construction on the urban edge by building too high up on the mountains. </p>
<p>On top of this, various factors have resulted in a failure to maintain the desired fire regime, particularly of fires at 12-15 year intervals. As a result there has been a dangerous build-up of vegetation – fuel loads – in some places. </p>
<p>The Western Cape is entering the summer season – its driest, given that rains fall in the winter. <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/news/cape-faces-fire-catastrophe-as-experts-fear-citys-worst-fire-season-lies-ahead-33176036">Fears have been mounting</a> that this year’s fire season might be the worst on record. </p>
<p>As a group of climate scientists and fynbos ecologists, we provide some context and background to the threat, based on available scientific research. We also point to what steps can be taken to help mitigate runaway fires in the region.</p>
<h2>Fynbos and fire</h2>
<p>Fynbos is both <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/248531724_Managing_fires_on_the_Cape_Peninsula_Dealing_with_the_inevitable">fire-dependent and fire-prone</a>. The Cape’s incredibly biodiverse fynbos plants need fire to survive and thrive. Fynbos animals have likewise adapted their life cycles to fire. For example, baby tortoises that hatch after the fire season with the first rains rely on the flush of green to survive.</p>
<p>Fynbos requires a burn every <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/1dee/1185429d1ca8a7608e528a293559b55db436.pdf">12-15 years on average</a>, otherwise species can be lost. Fires at shorter intervals (for example, less than seven to eight years) would eliminate many shrub species, while longer intervals between fires (over 30 years) cause senescence and die-off.</p>
<p>For example, South Africa’s iconic proteas are threatened by too-frequent fires because they need time to <a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0038-23532012000600005">build up seed reserves</a>. And sunbirds and sugarbirds are threatened because they <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225445942_Reduced_flower_visitation_by_nectar-feeding_birds_in_response_to_fire_in_Cape_fynbos_vegetation_South_Africa">require older fynbos as habitat</a>.</p>
<p>Fire frequency is not the only important factor. Season and weather conditions are also important. These affect fire intensity, which is important in stimulating germination of seeds stored in the soil. </p>
<h2>Risk factors</h2>
<p>Fire hazard is <a href="https://www.frames.gov/documents/behaveplus/publications/Countryman_1972_TheFireEnvironmentConcept_ocr.pdf">influenced by three factors</a>: fuel loads, the weather and an ignition source (such as lightning, cigarette butts or arson).</p>
<p>The danger of fires in the Cape region this season is therefore partly dependent on how the fynbos has been managed over the past few decades. Good management includes promoting natural fire regimes and maintenance of fire belts. </p>
<p>If we have managed fynbos well, an ignition point will not become a disaster.
Under what conditions might ignition prove dangerous? When there are high fuel loads with suitable fire weather, this can result in disastrously uncontrollable fires. </p>
<p>When do we get high fuel loads? In two scenarios: when fire has been suppressed in fynbos for too long, and when <a href="https://fireecology.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s42408-018-0001-0">alien trees</a> such as pines, wattle, hakea and gums have invaded fynbos.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296409/original/file-20191010-188797-1ek2jwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296409/original/file-20191010-188797-1ek2jwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296409/original/file-20191010-188797-1ek2jwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296409/original/file-20191010-188797-1ek2jwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296409/original/file-20191010-188797-1ek2jwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296409/original/file-20191010-188797-1ek2jwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296409/original/file-20191010-188797-1ek2jwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296409/original/file-20191010-188797-1ek2jwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indigenous Fynbos burns in a bush fire next to the Atlantic Ocean in Misty Cliffs, Cape Town.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Nic Bothma</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Areas of highest risk</h2>
<p>Given these factors, some areas of the Cape Peninsula constitute a higher fire hazard than others. The areas that <a href="http://www.photodestination.co.za/cape-aflame-cape-town-s-dance-with-fire.html">burned in a large fire in 2015</a> have lower fuel loads and thus pose little fire hazard. Areas that didn’t burn in the 2015 fire are a greater fire hazard.</p>
<p>The highest fire hazard of all would be the slopes above Kirstenbosch, Newlands and the Back Table (the back of Table Mountain), where fire has been <a href="https://www.ecologi.st/post/fire-shadows/">kept out</a> for over 40 years. Areas such as Cecilia and Tokai, on the urban edge of the southern suburbs of the city, with alien pine and gum plantations, are also a big hazard. </p>
<p>Given the magnitude of the fuel loads, ignition in these areas would likely result in a disastrous fire.</p>
<p>Fire weather is also important. Under perfect fire conditions, a fire would be unstoppable if it occurred in areas of high fuel loads. The <a href="http://www.auburn.edu/academic/forestry_wildlife/fire/weather_elements.htm">key weather drivers of fire hazard</a> include antecedent rainfall and soil moisture, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction. These weather conditions play a role in the short lead-up to ignition, as well as when the fire is burning.</p>
<h2>Untangling natural variation and climate change</h2>
<p>There is also the issue of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5081606/pdf/pnas.201612926.pdf">anthropogenic climate change</a> – changes in climate brought about by human activities. </p>
<p>How might climate change affect fire hazard? The odds are good that this summer will be <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.4849">warmer than the average summer 20 years ago</a>. This is because global warming is making the average climate warmer by around <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.295">0.2°C per decade</a>. </p>
<p>But this is also true of recent preceding years, for example between 2015 and 2018. There is no evidence from a climatic point of view that this next fire season will have a higher hazard in terms of temperature than the past few years.</p>
<p>Most climate model projections agree that the Cape will <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.295">become drier in future</a>. But <a href="https://www.sajs.co.za/article/view/3952">observed trends up to now are insignificant and contradictory</a>. For example, a dry August and September may possibly leave vegetation this summer drier than in an average year. But, in fact, the Cape Town area is <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/11/876">much less dry than during the drought years of 2015-2017</a>.</p>
<p>When trying to understand anthropogenic climate change, we need to be able to separate it from natural variability. For example, if there is an active El Niño event, most regions of the world will be <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014EO230013">warmer than normal</a>. To account for natural variability, we turn to seasonal forecasts.</p>
<p>Seasonal forecasts for this summer show varied results for temperature over the southwestern Cape. The <a href="http://www.weathersa.co.za/home/longrangeforecast">South African Weather Service</a> is suggesting a cooler than normal summer, and the <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/">European Centre</a> is indicating a warmer than average summer.</p>
<p>For rainfall this coming summer, where the occasional rain events might help reduce dryness in the fuel load, there is <a href="http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2018/01/25/so-when-is-it-going-to-rain/">little skill</a> in seasonal forecasts. So it’s <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2005GL023965">hard to say</a> whether a potential lack of rainfall during the summer will increase fire hazard.</p>
<p>In itself, this combination doesn’t suggest a significantly higher fire hazard next season than in previous years. Therefore there is no evidence to suggest that the next fire season in the Cape will be anything out of the ordinary. </p>
<p>Despite this, we should still be taking precautions.</p>
<h2>Precautions</h2>
<p>We suggest three actions: clear, manage and educate.</p>
<p>“Clear” refers to the removal of alien trees. Local residents can join alien clearing groups in their area. “Manage” refers to the need to support authorities on the Cape Peninsula – such as SANParks – to manage fynbos appropriately. This includes ensuring that, on average, 12-15 year prescribed burns happen. </p>
<p>And finally, education is needed to ensure that people understand climate variability versus climate change, as well as the relationship between fynbos and fires, so that future disasters can be avoided.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125069/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alanna Rebelo receives funding for her postdoctoral research from the Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA).
Alanna Rebelo volunteers for the WESSA-affiliated Friends of Tokai Park community organisation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Carlyle Le Maitre receives funding via contract research work as a Principal Researcher with the CSIR in Stellenbosch. He receives contract funding from various sources including the DEFF Natural Resources Managment Programmes and the Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning in the Western Cape.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark New receives funding from the AXA Research Fund, the BNP Paribas Foundation's Climate Initiative, the International Development Research Centre, DANIDA and the National Research Foundation of South Africa, among others.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Johnston receives funding from the Water Research Commission and Australia Africa Universities Network.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Petra Holden receives funding for her postdoctoral research from the Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA), the AXA Research Fund, and the BNP Paribas Foundation's Climate Initiative.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tiro Nkemelang receives funding from the AXA Research Fund.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Rebelo is affiliated with Friends of Tokai Park (a WESSA Friends group), Custodians of Rare and Endangered Wildflowers, SANParks Honorary Rangers, Western Leopard Toad Conservation Committee (chair), Botanical Society of South Africa, and is a researcher at the South African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch, in the fields of Citizen Science, Restoration Ecology, Conservation Planning and Ecology. All my research funding, and intern support, is via SANBI.</span></em></p>The danger of fires in the Cape region this season is partly dependent on how the Fynbos has been managed over the past few decades.Alanna Rebelo, Postdoctoral researcher, Stellenbosch UniversityDavid Carlyle Le Maitre, Principal Researcher Ecosystem services assessment and mapping, Council for Scientific and Industrial ResearchMark New, Director, African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape TownPeter Johnston, Climate Scientist and Researcher, University of Cape TownPetra Brigitte Holden, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Cape TownTiro Nkemelang, PhD student in African Climate Risk, University of Cape TownTony Rebelo, Scientist, South African National Biodiversity InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1232612019-09-10T06:42:30Z2019-09-10T06:42:30ZClimate change is bringing a new world of bushfires<p>Spring has barely arrived, and bushfires are burning <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/">across Australia’s eastern seaboard</a>. More than 50 fires are currently burning in New South Wales, and some 15,000 hectares have burned in Queensland since late last week.</p>
<p>It’s the first time Australia has seen such strong fires this early in the bushfire season. While fire is a normal part of Australia’s yearly cycle and no two years are alike, what we are seeing now is absolutely not business as usual. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grim-fire-season-looms-but-many-australians-remain-unprepared-122711">Grim fire season looms but many Australians remain unprepared</a>
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<p>And although these bushfires are not <em>directly</em> attributable to climate change, our rapidly warming climate, driven by human activities, is exacerbating every risk factor for more frequent and intense bushfires.</p>
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<h2>The basics of a bushfire</h2>
<p>For some bushfire 101, a bushfire is “an uncontrolled, non-structural fire burning in grass, scrub, bush or forest”. This means the fire is in vegetation, not a building (non-structural), and raging across the landscape – hence, uncontrolled.</p>
<p>For a bushfire to get started, several things need to come together. You need fuel, low humidity (which also often means the fuel itself has a low moisture content and is easier to burn), and oxygen. It also helps to have an unusually high ambient temperature and winds to drive the fire forward.</p>
<p>In Australia, we divide bushfires into <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-009-9443-8">two types</a> based on the shape and elevation of the landscape.</p>
<p>First are flat grassland bushfires. These are generally fast-moving, fanned by winds blowing across flattish open landscapes, and burn through an area in 5–10 seconds and may smoulder for a few minutes. They usually have low to medium intensity and can damage to crops, livestock and buildings. These fires are easy to map and fight due to relatively straightforward access.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-summer-bushfires-you-didnt-hear-about-and-the-invasive-species-fuelling-them-112619">The summer bushfires you didn't hear about, and the invasive species fuelling them</a>
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<p>Second are hilly or mountainous bushfires. These fires are slower-moving but much more intense, with higher temperatures. As they usually occur in forested, mountainous areas, they also have more dead vegetation to burn and are harder to access and fight. </p>
<p>They burn slowly, passing through an area in 2-5 minutes and can smoulder for days. Fires in upper tree canopies move very fast. Mountainous bushfires actually speed up as they burn up a slope (since they heat and dry out the vegetation and atmosphere in front of the fire, causing a runaway process of accelerating fire movement).</p>
<h2>Climate change and bushfire risk</h2>
<p>To be clear, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-10/more-than-climate-change-driving-queensland-fires/11493950">as previously reported</a>, the current bushfires are not specifically triggered by climate change. </p>
<p>However, as bushfire risk is highest in warm to hot, dry conditions with low humidity, low soil and fuel load moisture (and are usually worse during El Niño situations) – all factors that climate change in Australia affects – climate change is <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.3480">increasing the risk of more frequent and intense bushfires</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/">Widespread drought conditions</a>, very low humidity, higher than average temperatures in many places, and strong westerly winds driven by a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/sam/">negative Southern Annular Mode</a> (all made worse by human-induced climate change) have collided right now over large areas of the eastern seaboard, triggering extremely unusual bushfire conditions – certainly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/06/queensland-bushfire-destroys-home-as-emergency-crews-brace-for-challenging-day">catching many communities unawares</a> before the start of the official bushfire season.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-air-above-antarctica-is-suddenly-getting-warmer-heres-what-it-means-for-australia-123080">The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here's what it means for Australia</a>
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<p>Different regions of Australia have traditionally experienced peak bushfire weather at different times. This has meant that individual households, communities and the emergency services have had specific periods of the year to prepare. These patterns now seem to be breaking down, and bushfires are happening outside these regular places and times.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291701/original/file-20190910-109927-ws6ofh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291701/original/file-20190910-109927-ws6ofh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291701/original/file-20190910-109927-ws6ofh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291701/original/file-20190910-109927-ws6ofh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291701/original/file-20190910-109927-ws6ofh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291701/original/file-20190910-109927-ws6ofh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291701/original/file-20190910-109927-ws6ofh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291701/original/file-20190910-109927-ws6ofh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map of bushfire seasons.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New challenges for the emergency services</h2>
<p>While experts recently <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/hazardnotes/63">forecast</a> a worse-than-average coming bushfire season, the current emergency has essentially exploded out of nowhere.</p>
<p>Many Australian communities do know how to <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-survival-plan">prepare</a> but there is always <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/hazardnotes/59">some apathy</a> at the start of bushfire season around getting households and communities bushfire-ready. When it’s still relatively cold and feeling like the last whisps of winter are still affecting us, bushfire preparation seems very far off.</p>
<p>Compounding our worsening bushfire conditions, we are increasingly building in <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/black-saturday-urban-sprawl-and-climate-change-remain-key-dangers%22%22">bushfire-prone areas</a>, exposing people and homes to fire. This tips the scales of risk further in favour of catastrophic losses. Sadly too, these risks always disproportionately affect the <a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-are-affecting-some-of-australias-most-disadvantaged-communities-68165">most vulnerable</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-are-affecting-some-of-australias-most-disadvantaged-communities-68165">Natural disasters are affecting some of Australia's most disadvantaged communities</a>
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<p>With such extensive fires over wide areas, the current emergency points to an extremely frightening future possibility: <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-july-2019-national-resilience-taskforce/">that emergency services become more and more stretched</a>, responding to fires, floods, storms, tropic cyclones and a myriad other natural hazards earlier in each hazard season, increasingly overlapping.</p>
<p>Our emergency services do an amazing job but their resources and the energy of their staff and volunteers can only go so far.</p>
<p>Regularly the emergency services of one area or state are deployed to other areas to help respond to emergencies. </p>
<p>But inevitably, we will see large-scale disasters occurring simultaneously in multiple territories, making it impossible to share resources. Our emergency management workforce report they are already <a href="https://www.beyondblue.org.au/about-us/about-our-work/workplace-mental-health/pes-program/national-mental-health-and-wellbeing-study-of-police-and-emergency-services">stressed and overworked</a>, and losing the capacity to share resources will only exacerbate this. </p>
<p>Immediate challenges will be to continue funding emergency management agencies across the nation, ensuring the workforce has the <a href="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/b898874df9c130ce16b25ce01/files/e27706e6-596f-4810-8731-c38c24c9a941/AMENDED_FINAL_THESIS_08021817.pdf">necessary training and experience</a> to <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/14/12/1563">plan and respond</a> to a range of complex emergencies, and making sure local communities are involved in actively planning for emergencies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123261/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dale Dominey-Howes receives funding from The Australian Research Council, the Global Resilience Partnership and the National Disaster Mitigation Program. </span></em></p>Climate change makes every risk factor for major bushfires worse, which means massive, intense fires will only become more likely.Dale Dominey-Howes, Professor of Hazards and Disaster Risk Sciences, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.