tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/flooding-8771/articlesFlooding – The Conversation2024-03-19T12:23:06Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2238362024-03-19T12:23:06Z2024-03-19T12:23:06ZHow ghost streams and redlining’s legacy lead to unfairness in flood risk, in Detroit and elsewhere<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580202/original/file-20240306-26-nqkhke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Detroit River inundated Detroit's Jefferson-Chalmers neighborhood in 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HighWaterDetroitFlooding/35df93ae560e4e13912b5f36456d2e8d/photo?Query=detroit%20flood&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=74&currentItemNo=18">AP/Corey Williams</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2021, metro Detroit was hit with a rainstorm so severe that President Joe <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/07/15/president-joseph-r-biden-jr-approves-michigan-disaster-declaration/">Biden issued a major disaster declaration</a> at state officials’ request. </p>
<p>Nearly 8 inches of rain fell within 24 hours, closing every major freeway and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2YshMbUeo0">causing massive damage to homes and businesses</a>. The storm was of a severity historically seen in Detroit every 500 to 1,000 years. </p>
<p>But over the past decade, the region has experienced <a href="https://grist.org/cities/how-many-500-year-floods-must-detroit-endure-in-a-decade/">several other storms only slightly less destructive</a>, one <a href="https://www.freep.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2023/08/24/storms-bring-metro-detroit-heavy-rains-flooding/70669298007/">in August 2023</a>.</p>
<p>As the planet warms, severe rains – and the flooding that follows – may become even more intense and frequent in cities like Detroit that have aging and undersized stormwater infrastructure. These extreme events put enormous pressure on communities, but <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flooding-disproportionately-harms-black-neighborhoods/">low-income urban neighborhoods tend to suffer the most</a> </p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qyHbWY0AAAAJ&hl=en">geomorphologist at the University of Michigan-Dearborn</a> specializing in urban environments, water, historical mapping and flood-risk equity.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cacint.2023.100134">recent research</a>, conducted with graduate students <a href="https://medicine.umich.edu/dept/pain-research/catherine-sulich">Cat Sulich</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RQkzvOQAAAAJ&hl=en">Atreyi Guin</a>, has identified a hidden contributor to flooding in older, low-income neighborhoods that have seen a lack of investment: ghost streams and wetlands.</p>
<p>Although we studied Detroit, our research has implications for cities across the United States.</p>
<h2>Historic decisions have an impact today</h2>
<p>Ghost streams and wetlands are waterways that previously existed but, as urban areas built up, were either buried below the surface or filled in to support development. Detroit has removed more than <a href="https://tandf.figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/A_century_of_stream_burial_in_Michigan_USA_cities/3483827/1">85% of the total length of streams</a> that existed in 1905. Most major cities in the United States and Europe have removed similar numbers of streams. </p>
<p>Detroit is also a city deeply <a href="https://www.canr.msu.edu/redlining/detroit">affected by redlining</a> – <a href="https://metropolitics.org/Before-Redlining-and-Beyond.html">a now-outlawed practice</a> once used by the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0096144203029004002">Home Owners’ Loan Corporation</a>, a government-sponsored corporation that was created as part of the New Deal, that graded neighborhoods on perceived financial risk.</p>
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<img alt="The 1939 Home Owners' Loan Corporation map of metropolitan Detroit showing redlined areas in the inner city." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1145&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1145&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1145&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A 1939 Home Owners’ Loan Corporation map of metropolitan Detroit shows formerly redlined areas that now experience disproportionate flooding.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/davidwilson1949/50077016761">David Wilson/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>People living in communities labeled as “high risk” were disproportionately people of color, immigrants and residents of lower socioeconomic status and were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2024.2321226">systematically denied loans and opportunities to build generational wealth</a>. </p>
<p>These neighborhoods received <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1523908X.2021.1888702">fewer community investments</a>, including interventions such as stormwater infrastructure and landscape modification, than did higher-wealth neighborhoods. </p>
<p>We looked at whether these decades-old decisions have had any impact on flood risk today and learned that they do.</p>
<p>For <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cacint.2023.100134">this study</a>, we correlated present-day flood risk in metro Detroit with former Home Owner’s Loan Corporation boundaries’ grades. Flood risk was mapped using the <a href="https://firststreet.org/research-library/flood-model-methodology">First Street Foundation’s Flood Factor</a>, which scores every parcel in the U.S. on a scale of minimal (1) to extreme (10). </p>
<p>We then correlated flood risk to the presence of ghost streams and wetlands, which we extracted from old topographic maps from the United States Geological Survey. The goal was to determine whether a history of waterway burial and/or redlining influenced the overall flood risk of communities today.</p>
<p>We found that flood risk was disproportionately distributed, with historically redlined neighborhoods bearing the greatest brunt of flood risk.</p>
<p>Residents living in communities that were graded as “hazardous” (D) or “declining” (C) in the 1940s are today more susceptible to flood risk than the more affluent A and B communities. Over 95% of parcels classified at extreme flooding risk occur in C and D communities, with less than 4% in A and B communities. </p>
<p>Flood risk increases with the presence of ghost streams and wetlands, with C and D communities having a higher risk. In C communities, the presence of a ghost wetland increases flood risk tenfold, while ghost rivers also increase risk, although by a smaller amount. </p>
<p>The percent of properties in D-graded communities that are located adjacent to the 32-mile-long Detroit River and classified at extreme or severe flood risk is 99.9% if they have ghost wetlands or 95% if they have ghost rivers. </p>
<p>In other words, the combined history of redlining and landscape alteration may still contribute to increased flood risk today. When communities received poor grades, banks, lenders and municipalities neglected those areas’ stormwater infrastructure.</p>
<h2>Invest resources where the risk is greatest</h2>
<p>If communities want to protect residents from flooding, it’s crucial for them to map and understand their “hidden hydrology.” Few cities have the data to inform residents that they are at greater flood risk because they are living on a ghost wetland or river. </p>
<p>In Detroit, residents of most of the neighborhoods that show a major to extreme flood risk are not required to purchase flood insurance because they are not near an active river. This means residents are unknowingly at risk.</p>
<p>Another benefit to mapping ghost wetlands and rivers is that stormwater management is most effective if it follows natural pathways and processes. </p>
<p>Stormwater engineers frequently refer to this as “nature-based interventions” or “green stormwater infrastructure.” </p>
<p>During a flood, water occupies the lowest areas of a landscape, such as an abandoned stream valley or filled wetland. Those low areas are a good place to build green stormwater infrastructure, such as rain gardens that absorb water or <a href="https://www.asla.org/bioswales.aspx">bioswales</a> that convey moving water. </p>
<p>Some solutions can reflect culture or embrace art: Detroit’s <a href="https://www.thewright.org/">Charles H. Wright Museum of African American History</a> installed <a href="https://detroitstormwater.org/projects/chw-sankofa-porous-pavers-project">permeable pavers</a> with a unique West African-inspired design to minimize and manage floodwater following major flooding in Detroit in 2014. </p>
<p>In my view, marginalized communities need to have a strong voice in the search for solutions. Discrimination against these communities helped create the current problem. Listening to them now is key to both minimizing flood damage and beginning to right a historical injustice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacob Napieralski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mapping where water once flowed is important for managing flood risk today in Detroit and elsewhere.Jacob Napieralski, Professor of Geology, University of Michigan-DearbornLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223312024-03-13T20:37:18Z2024-03-13T20:37:18ZDespite positive steps in British Columbia, animal welfare in disaster management remains overlooked<p>Disasters serve as focusing events, providing a “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Brent-Doberstein/publication/372308431_The_post-disaster_window_The_2021_British_Columbia_atmospheric_rivers_phenomenon_as_a_focusing_event_for_policy_change/links/64aecdc995bbbe0c6e2f0a85/The-post-disaster-window-The-2021-British-Columbia-atmospheric-rivers-phenomenon-as-a-focusing-event-for-policy-change.pdf">window of opportunity</a>” to reassess practices, propose new policies and animate the human decisions that make communities vulnerable to <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2019/04/canadas-climate-is-warming-twice-as-fast-as-global-average.html">climate-related</a> disasters. </p>
<p>Elisabeth Stoddard, associate professor at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, and I set out to understand the relationship between <a href="https://www.worldanimalprotection.ca/news/understanding-2021-abbotsford-floods">animal agriculture and climate change</a>. To do so, we focused on the impacts of disasters, alongside examining the common disaster management practices deployed in Canada, using the example of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-an-atmospheric-river-drenched-british-columbia-and-led-to-floods-and-mudslides-172021">Abbotsford Floods</a>.</p>
<p>On Nov. 17, 2021, the Lower Mainland of British Columbia was inundated with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100441">atmospheric floodwaters</a> resulting in the deaths of at least 500 cows, thousands of pigs and over a hundred thousand birds. The Abbotsford flood was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/farm-animals-suffered-in-b-c-floods-despite-existing-disaster-management-guidelines-172353">largest-ever agricultural and animal welfare disaster in B.C. history</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-canada-needs-to-dramatically-update-how-it-prepares-for-and-manages-emergencies-221959">Why Canada needs to dramatically update how it prepares for and manages emergencies</a>
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<p>In 2023, the province announced the <a href="https://www.leg.bc.ca/Pages/BCLASS-Legacy.aspx#%2Fcontent%2Fdata%2520-%2520ldp%2Fpages%2F42nd4th%2F3rd_read%2Fgov31-3.htm">Emergency and Disaster Management Act</a> that pivoted away from a response-based approach to one centred around four distinct phases: mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Despite updating the legislation, our research shows animal disaster management remains overlooked. </p>
<p>This research highlights the need for sustained civil engagement and legislative interventions on two key issues: 1) the nuances of animal rescue and welfare; and 2) the strained resiliency of agricultural communities. </p>
<h2>Animal rescue and welfare</h2>
<p>B.C. emergency management protocols give producers four options regarding farmed animals during disasters. Farmers can either a) shelter-in-place, b) relocate on-farm, c) evacuate off-farm or d) release their livestock. We also found that options were further restricted depending on the farmed species.</p>
<p>For example, to shelter-in-place often remains the only option for pigs, chickens and turkeys due to biosecurity concerns, logistical challenges and simple cost-benefit analysis from an agricultural perspective. Indeed, we found — through a <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/enSearch/detail?id=7AFDBC16F15F42E289E9F7DDB0F80C40&recorduid=AGR-2022-21591">Freedom of Information request</a> — that most of the reimbursements for relocation distributed by the <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/agriculture-seafood/business-market-development/emergency-management/livestock-relocation">Livestock Relocation Policy</a> went to dairy and beef producers. </p>
<p>Of those producers, many opted to evacuate their animals directly to an auction yard or abattoir due to the loss of rangeland or destroyed farm infrastructure.</p>
<p>These considerations are further complicated by the different production lifespans of various species. Long-term welfare impacts are mostly only relevant within dairy and beef production since on average, chickens only live around 40 days before slaughter — and pigs only around six months. By comparison, cows can live upwards of five years in production before slaughter — a fact which helps to partly explain the extreme disparity in <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food">water, land and energy costs in beef production</a> as opposed to other animal products. </p>
<p>Studies show that cows rescued from floods have compromised immune systems, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w14243984">slower rates of growth</a>, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33045630/">higher rates of miscarriages</a>, and even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2020.08.012">increased methane emissions</a>. These long-term impacts can lead to the eventual decision by producers to euthanize animals.</p>
<p>In fact, the 2021 <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/agriculture-seafood/programs/agriculture-insurance-and-income-protection-programs/flood-recovery">Canada-British Columbia Flood Recovery Program for Food Security</a> anticipated these continued losses and extended coverage for costs associated with post-disaster welfare and losses for an additional year.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-must-address-the-interconnected-harms-to-people-animals-and-ecosystems-in-train-derailments-210357">Why we must address the interconnected harms to people, animals and ecosystems in train derailments</a>
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<p>This flags the need for transparency, and a mandatory reporting mechanism concerning post-disaster animal welfare to accurately represent the <a href="https://doi.org/10.4000/irpp.1868">long-term</a> repercussions of disasters. </p>
<h2>Strained resiliency</h2>
<p>Increasingly, disaster relief is becoming the <a href="https://www.plutobooks.com/9780745339542/disasters-and-social-reproduction/">responsibility of individual communities and civil society</a>. However, these communities are often under-resourced, untrained and not integrated formally into emergency response. </p>
<p>Our research pointed to the oversized role agricultural communities have in responding to disasters, often leading to <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-related-disasters-leave-behind-trauma-and-worse-mental-health-housing-uncertainty-is-a-major-reason-why-206861">post-traumatic stress disorder and other psychological harms</a>. There are also instances where producers will even decide to leave agricultural production entirely.</p>
<p>Many members of the Abbotsford community felt abandoned and exploited by the government after the floods, leading to resentment, frustration and mistrust towards formal emergency management. </p>
<p>While communities took pride in their ability to support each other with the limited resources they had, interviews and post-disaster research revealed the immediate and long-term impacts of this approach should be taken seriously, including acknowledging the barrier it creates for future collaboration between communities and emergency management.</p>
<p>It is essential that we build capacity in communities by supporting, resourcing, and legitimizing <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/DPM-05-2018-">community-first responder models</a>. In doing so, we can help communities and farmers gradually become integral aspects of formal emergency management systems as <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-management/local-emergency-programs/volunteers">public safety volunteers</a>. </p>
<h2>Real change has yet to come</h2>
<p>Following the floods, the Abbotsford municipal government focused on returning producers to production by restocking barns and drafting plans to improve <a href="https://letstalkabbotsford.ca/abbotsfordfloodresponse">flood-mitigation infrastructure</a>. On the provincial side, the government has begun to update emergency legislation with its Emergency and Disaster Management Act. </p>
<p>These are important steps, but they fail to engage with the more thorny issues related to animal disaster management. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-must-stop-treating-climate-disasters-like-unexpected-humanitarian-crises-216153">Canada must stop treating climate disasters like unexpected humanitarian crises</a>
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<p>Our research shows the need for transparency regarding animal rescue and welfare issues, as well as mobilization around community-based solutions, such as by formalizing the community first-responder model and integrating it into official emergency management. </p>
<p>Without these critical interventions at the social and political level, we can continue to expect the same outcomes for communities living on the front lines of climate-fuelled disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222331/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Eccles receives funding from World Animal Protection (Canada), FRQSC, NSERC-CREATE, and Concordia University.</span></em></p>Despite improvements in disaster response management since the Abbotsford floods of 2021, long-term animal welfare remains woefully underappreciated in B.C.Stephanie Eccles, PhD Candidate, Department of Geography, Planning, and Environment, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249022024-03-07T22:03:41Z2024-03-07T22:03:41ZFlood risk mapping is a public good, so why the public resistance in Canada? Lessons from Nova Scotia<p>Flood risk maps are an essential public good. Indeed, many countries like the <a href="https://flood-map-for-planning.service.gov.uk/">United Kingdom already offer flood risk mapping</a>.</p>
<p>Canada committed to a public flood risk mapping portal in the <a href="https://www.budget.canada.ca/2023/report-rapport/chap4-en.html#Raising%20Awareness%20of%20Flood%20Risks">2023 budget</a>. However, despite the <a href="https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/climate/impacts/climate-water-is-the-new-fire">increasing frequency and impact of large, catastrophic floods</a>, we still have a sparse patchwork of flood risk maps at municipal and provincial scale. </p>
<p>What <a href="https://floodsmartcanada.ca/floodplain-maps/">flood mapping that does exist</a> is hard to find, of uncertain quality and currency, and often <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5206284/bad-flood-map-canada/">difficult for non-experts to understand and apply</a>. </p>
<p>The unacknowledged reason why there is a lack of flood risk mapping in Canada is because such maps generally face public resistance. Indeed, it is not uncommon in Canada to see flood or wetland mapping <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-withdraws-30-municipalities-from-contested-flood-zone-maps-1.4509236">withdrawn or modified</a> because of public pressure. </p>
<p>I led two survey-based studies recently with former graduate student Samantha Howard and post-doctoral fellow Brooke McWherter to understand how people in flood-prone areas of Nova Scotia perceive publicly available flood maps. We found wide agreement about the benefits of such maps — until we asked about the <a href="https://www.intactcentreclimateadaptation.ca/treading-water-impact-of-catastrophic-flooding-on-canadas-housing-market/">impact on real estate value</a>. </p>
<h2>The case of Nova Scotia</h2>
<p>Nova Scotia faces some of the <a href="https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/8-0/">highest sea level rise in Canada</a> under current climate change projections. Yet last week, the Nova Scotia government <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/coastal-protection-act-environment-tim-halman-climate-change-1.7125745">decided not to proceed with the long-awaited Coastal Protection Act (CPA)</a>, which had been passed with all-party assent in 2019. </p>
<p>Among other things, the act would have regulated how close people could build to the ocean based on assessments of sea level, storm projections and information about the elevation and erosion risk of each section of coast. This would have protected people and infrastructure, as well as sensitive coastal ecosystems, and left space for ocean dynamics. </p>
<p>In lieu of the act, the Nova Scotia government released a <a href="https://novascotia.ca/coastal-climate-change/">new website</a> featuring resources to help individual coastal property owners make decisions about their bit of coastline, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/municipalities-nova-scotia-coastal-protection-act-1.7021006">leaving dozens of rural coastal municipalities</a> in the lurch. One of those resources was a new <a href="https://nsgi.novascotia.ca/chm">coastal hazard map</a>. </p>
<p>The lengthy disclaimer you need to agree to before you can access the map immediately erodes its trustworthiness. Moreover, while people may trust any good news they see in its data, they may still be at risk due to the tool’s many data and design flaws. To supplement this tool, Nova Scotia has <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10317417/new-coastal-protection-plan-nova-scotia/">committed to finishing detailed flood line mapping by 2027</a>. </p>
<p>It is too soon to know how people are responding to this tool, but we know it does not take a lot of unhappy constituents to make a government nervous, especially if those constituents hold financial or political power. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/coastal-protection-act-tim-halman-environment-climate-change-1.6959599">The public engagement associated with the CPA was, after all, overwhelmingly in support of proclaiming and regulating under the act</a>. Yet here we are. </p>
<h2>Drivers of resistance</h2>
<p>The first survey we ran in 2021 — through an online link sent via Canada Post to all residents in two towns in Southwestern Nova Scotia — showed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12836">one in six people felt flood risk mapping presented too big a risk for real estate value</a>. Our second survey of about 1100 house residents around the Minas Basin, Nova Scotia, in 2022 found that <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/10222/83004">one in three residents expressed concern about real estate value</a>. Both studies had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level.</p>
<p>The first survey had a smaller response rate but represented the population demographics better. The second was biased toward older respondents and those with higher incomes. </p>
<p>Moving back to our original question — why doesn’t everyone see flood risk mapping as a public good?</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-billion-dollar-disasters-list-shattered-the-us-record-with-28-big-weather-and-climate-disasters-amid-earths-hottest-year-on-record-220634">2023's billion-dollar disasters list shattered the US record with 28 big weather and climate disasters amid Earth's hottest year on record</a>
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<p>We used slightly different questions in the two studies to understand the drivers of resistance to flood risk mapping based on perceived impact on real estate value. What emerged speaks to the challenge of inspiring long-term and collective thinking about climate change. </p>
<p>Firstly, being focused on oneself rather than others was a reliable predictor of resistance in both studies. </p>
<p>Resistance in the first study was associated with agreeing to the following statements: “I am not able to cope with the land changes required to deal with significant increases in flood risk at this point in my life,” and “flood management decisions I make do not have implications for others.” The latter is demonstrably untrue: shoreline armouring, for instance, can have negative effects for neighbours. In the second study, being focused on others and having descendants led to less resistance. </p>
<p>Self-orientation was a strong underlying driver of resistance. It reduced a person’s likelihood of focusing on others, the future or the biosphere. People already make decisions to suit their own situation, just as the Nova Scotia government is now <a href="https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/morning-file/the-houston-government-thinks-we-can-use-an-app-to-ward-off-storm-damage-and-sea-level-rise-individually-we-cant/#N1">encouraging coastal landowners to do</a>. Yet in these kinds of scenarios, collective and ecological interests are forgotten.</p>
<p>Secondly, the more vulnerable a person felt to flood risk, the more likely they were to oppose maps that would allow others to see their flood risk. This variable was only a strong signal of resistance in the second study when we used a combination of flood likelihood and vulnerability to measure it. This might also explain why resistance was twice as high in the 2022 survey than the one in 2021. It could be a regional difference based on actual differences in risk, or differences in survey method and thus respondent population, but it could also reflect increasing flood frequency and severity.</p>
<p>The second survey was still in the field when <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/weather-snoddon-fiona-recap-1.6976249">Hurricane Fiona</a> hit Atlantic Canada. This timing suggests that instead of becoming more open to climate adaptation information like flood maps as flooding events occur, we might become less open as we seek to protect the value of our biggest investments: our homes. </p>
<h2>Moving forward</h2>
<p>A clue to the path ahead may be found in our first study, where <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12836">those who had previously seen a flood map for their region</a> were slightly less likely to be resistant to public flood risk maps. This might indicate that such resistance is mostly borne of fear of the unknown. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wetlands-are-superheroes-expert-sets-out-how-they-protect-people-and-places-221995">Wetlands are superheroes: expert sets out how they protect people and places</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We urgently need high quality, public flood risk maps that the government stands by (including with planning regulations). Then we can focus on rethinking what it means to live a good coastal life in the face of climate change, and how we collectively support those who may face decreases in home or land value.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224902/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Sherren or her trainees received funding for this work from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, and the Nova Scotia Government. </span></em></p>Public concerns for real estate value, and a focus on the self, make flood risk maps unpopular. However, these concerns should not dissuade governments from providing resources we can all trust.Kate Sherren, Professor, School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247072024-03-05T16:30:30Z2024-03-05T16:30:30ZHow countries in conflict zones can recover from floods – lessons from Pakistan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578963/original/file-20240229-20-88ie0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A family crosses the flooded streets of Pakistan in 2010. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatevisuals.org/search/?searchQuery=flood%20pakistan">Gerhard JˆrÈn/Climate Visuals</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than 6,000 people died and at least 11,000 <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/18/libya-floods-conflicting-death-tolls-greek-aid-workers-die-in-crash#:%7E:text=Confusion%20has%20emerged%20over%20the,killed%20elsewhere%20in%20eastern%20Libya">reportedly disappeared</a> in the aftermath of the destructive flood that hit Libya on <a href="https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/devastating-flooding-libya">September 10 2023</a>. </p>
<p>Infrastructure in north-eastern Libya has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/libya-floods-the-drowning-of-derna-was-a-man-made-disaster-decades-in-the-making-213797">seriously damaged</a>. The economy continues to suffer and companies that are crucial partners for reconstruction and development have been forced to close due to <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/90695">flood damage</a>. With more than <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/unhcr-update-libya-september-2023-enar">40,000 people</a> still displaced, labour shortages continue and essential services, including healthcare, remain disrupted. </p>
<p>This severe flooding highlighted the vulnerability of Libya – a country already grappling with political instability, <a href="https://www.rulac.org/publications/libya-a-short-guide-to-the-conflict">ongoing conflict</a> and a deteriorating economy – to climate-related threats. </p>
<p>Libya and other flood-hit countries, especially in conflict zones, could learn a lot from Pakistan, where the plans for recovery from similar floods in 2022 differ in some significant ways. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s response to its floods included a comprehensive <a href="https://www.undp.org/pakistan/publications/pakistan-floods-2022-post-disaster-needs-assessment-pdna">post-disaster needs assessment</a>, a strategy that outlines clear priorities for rebuilding livelihoods, agriculture and public infrastructure over the coming five years. </p>
<p>Libya’s approach lacks this forward planning. Without conducting a comprehensive assessment of what a country needs, meaningful recovery efforts cannot be effectively carried out.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/what-sendai-framework">United Nations Sendai framework</a>, a global agreement that guides countries in reducing the risks of natural disasters, emphasises the importance of “building back better” in recovery to reduce vulnerabilities of a place and its people. </p>
<p>However, most disaster management doesn’t focus on long-term recovery. My research in disaster recovery and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=c5aWJIsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">climate change adaptation</a> indicates that the best route for the development of comprehensive and sustainable plans is for the government and relevant organisations to rebuild affected communities, repair damaged infrastructure and provide ongoing social, economic and health support. </p>
<p>Now that initial response and relief efforts have been rolled out across Libya’s affected regions, the focus needs to shift to consider the long-term recovery of these communities. </p>
<h2>The damage of debt</h2>
<p>The country also needs to consider how it funds its recovery. Developing countries tend to rely heavily on loans to <a href="https://floodresilience.net/resources/item/2020-floods-in-tabasco-lessons-learned-for-strengthening-social-capital/">fund recovery programmes</a>. Countries, including Pakistan, are often forced to continue paying existing loans in the aftermath of disasters instead of spending new funds on recovery. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s journey towards recovery from the major floods of <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/news/pakistan-flooding-one-year-later">2010 and 2011</a> is a stark example of the challenges countries face when burdened with heavy debt. In order to rebuild and rehabilitate, Pakistan borrowed a staggering estimated <a href="https://devinit.org/resources/filling-the-gap-addressing-climate-driven-crises-pakistan/">US$20 billion to US$40 billion</a>. This came at a significant cost.</p>
<p>In 2021, the burden of repaying debts amounted to <a href="https://devinit.org/resources/filling-the-gap-addressing-climate-driven-crises-pakistan/">US$11.9 billion annually</a> accounting for 32% of the Pakistan government’s revenue. Consequently, Pakistan’s capacity to effectively respond to the 2022 floods was severely restricted. Ironically, the country accumulated more debt in addressing the aftermath of these floods than it received in humanitarian support in 2022.</p>
<p>Countries like Libya need to carefully manage their borrowing to avoid long-term economic challenges and debt burdens. Pakistan’s experience showed that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/pakistan-floods/">private donations</a> from within the country can be a significant source of funds, alongside the international giving that is more common.</p>
<p>Libya could explore alternative funding sources such as international grants, loans from international financial institutions, redirecting existing budget allocations and generating additional revenue domestically through stimulating economic growth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Close up shot of boy drinking clean fresh water from outside tap" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2010 Pakistan was hit by one of the largest natural disasters the world has ever seen. Ten years’ worth of rain falling in just two weeks resulted in extreme flooding across much of the country. Access to clean drinking water became a huge issue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatevisuals.org/search/?searchQuery=flood%20pakistan">Vicki Francis/DFID/Climate Visuals</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Road to recovery</h2>
<p>There is also a more literal question of how to rebuild. In Pakistan, the reconstruction of damaged roads, bridges, power stations, schools, hospitals and homes involved a collaborative approach. Inspired by the self-resilience housing model developed by Yasmeen Lari, <a href="https://www.arct.cam.ac.uk/staff/professor-yasmeen-lari">Pakistan’s first female architect</a>, local community involvement was key. </p>
<p>This model also promotes sustainability and generates local employment by using locally sourced materials, such as mud bricks. Instead of relying on conventional and expensive building materials like cement blocks, local people make mud bricks using locally sourced clay and other natural materials that are easily replaceable in the future. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s self-resilience housing approach taps into the benefits of short supply chains and creates local jobs in the process. Libya needs to draw lessons from this strategy for rebuilding infrastructure. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Looking down over sandy ground, brown mud bricks drying in vast rows on the ground, a few trees in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mud bricks are made by local communities in Pakistan as part of efforts to improve resilience.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bricks-made-mud-putting-row-2404684131">nadeemshahzad/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recovery efforts should not only focus on rebuilding physical infrastructure. Strengthening economic, social and environmental resilience must be prioritised too. As seen in Pakistan, millions of people are <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/pakistan-flood-victims-crises-collide-fuel-growing-hunger">still struggling</a> to find a sustainable means of livelihood and <a href="https://www.redcross.org.uk/stories/disasters-and-emergencies/world/climate-change-and-pakistan-flooding-affecting-millions">clean water</a> remains a pressing issue in many affected areas. </p>
<p>Social and psychological support is just as important. That includes counselling services and mental health systems to address trauma, grief and loss. </p>
<p>A 2022 <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2022.890671">study</a> by Iranian researchers revealed that post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms were particularly prevalent after extreme flood events. Another <a href="https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2022-pakistan-floods/">2022 report</a> showed that Pakistan flood survivors who were given professional psychological support recovered more rapidly and completely.</p>
<p>To pave the way for recovery in Libya, additional support will be needed, particularly in terms of temporary shelters, medicine and access to health facilities and sanitation services. </p>
<p>Coordinated local action and stable governance will help fragile regions like Libya and Pakistan to strengthen communities and prepare for more inevitable climate shocks. Peace building needs to be an integral part of climate crisis recovery, prevention and readiness.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224707/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola is a Visiting Scientist at the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security. He is grateful to have received grants supporting his research on climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.</span></em></p>Our expert in disaster recovery and climate change adaptation calls for a longer-term response to conflict zones affected by severe flooding, such as Libya and Pakistan.Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola, Visiting Scientist, United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219712024-02-15T19:04:22Z2024-02-15T19:04:22ZClimate change is forcing Australians to weigh up relocating. How do they make that difficult decision?<p><a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/climate-whiplash-wild-swings-between-weather-extremes/">Big environmental changes</a> mean ever more Australians will confront the tough choice of whether to move home or risk staying put.</p>
<p>Communities in the tropical north are <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/three-aussie-towns-set-to-become-unliveable-due-to-extreme-heat/news-story/a96b36d1be5054d9fe3282ebf18c3431">losing residents</a> as these regions <a href="https://theconversation.com/study-finds-2-billion-people-will-struggle-to-survive-in-a-warming-world-and-these-parts-of-australia-are-most-vulnerable-205927">become hotter and more humid</a>. <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/weather-is-growing-more-extreme-the-pressure-is-on-the-bureau-of-meteorology-to-keep-up-20240111-p5ewms.html">Repeated floods</a> have communities along the east coast questioning their future. Others face <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-climate-change-is-bringing-bushfires-more-often-but-some-ecosystems-in-australia-are-suffering-the-most-211683">rising bushfire risks</a> that force them to weigh up the <a href="http://www.ohscareer.com.au/archived-news/bushfire-risk-for-those-who-move">difficult decision</a> to move home.</p>
<p>However, the decision-making process and relocation opportunities are not the same for everyone. Factors such as socio-economic disadvantage and how we are attached to a place influence decisions to move or stay, where people go and how they experience their new location. </p>
<p>Our research, working with other researchers at Edith Cowan University’s <a href="https://www.ecu.edu.au/schools/science/research/strategic-centres/centre-for-people-place-and-planet/overview">Centre for People, Place & Planet</a> and Curtin University, seeks to document when and why people stay or go, and what this means for places and communities. In particular, our research suggests <em>who</em> is more likely to go may leave those who remain even more vulnerable. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/oCeYJPwUaTg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Darwin is already losing residents because of rising heat and humidity.</span></figcaption>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-tropical-zone-is-expanding-and-australia-should-be-worried-77701">The world's tropical zone is expanding, and Australia should be worried</a>
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<h2>We’ve been slow to adapt to increasing impacts</h2>
<p>Climate change is global in scale and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">has compounding effects</a>. It is increasing the frequency and intensity of disasters and extreme weather events such as heatwaves, fires, storms and floods. It is also accelerating environmental changes such as soil erosion, salinisation of waterways, loss of biodiversity, and land and water degradation. </p>
<p>Both sudden disruptions and gradual pervasive decline <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-019-01463-1">have impacts</a> on the places where we live, work and play. So far, there has been <a href="https://thefifthestate.com.au/urbanism/climate-change-news/ahuri-rips-into-federal-government-inaction-on-helping-cities-adapt-to-climate-change/">little effective government action</a> to improve <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/411">climate change adaptation in Australia</a>. </p>
<p>As we have seen in recent times in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/09/land-swaps-relocations-or-rebuilds-lismore-community-grapples-with-its-future">Lismore</a>, New South Wales, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-17/mooroopna-shepparton-flood-residents-consider-staying-or-leaving/103324882">northern Victoria</a>, for example, living in some flood-prone locations will become <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-23/flood-insurance-costing-30000-dollars-where-not-to-build/13268966">unaffordable due to insurance costs</a> or simply uninsurable. </p>
<p>In other locations, different reasons will force residents to leave. It might be because environmental change threatens their livelihoods, or they can’t tolerate new conditions such as more long heatwaves or less reliable freshwater supplies. Others might not be able to endure the threat of another disaster. </p>
<p>In sum, living in the place they called home will not be sustainable.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eqafq5UV5Iw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Repeated floods are forcing people in towns like Rochester in Victoria to contemplate whether they can afford to stay.</span></figcaption>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-come-clean-on-lismores-future-people-and-businesses-have-to-relocate-away-from-the-floodplains-184636">It's time to come clean on Lismore's future. People and businesses have to relocate away from the floodplains</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>What factors affect the decision to stay or go?</h2>
<p>Not everyone can relocate to cooler or safer places. Systemic inequalities mean some people are more at risk from environmental change and have <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wcc.565">less capacity</a> to respond than others. These vulnerable people include children (both <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2024-01-25/climate-change-threatens-health-of-babies-in-utero/103362510">before and after birth</a>), women, older people, people on low incomes and/or with disability, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and other cultural and/or linguistic minorities. </p>
<p>In addition, housing is more affordable in areas that are hotter or flood-prone. This makes it more likely to be owned or rented by people with fewer financial resources, compounding their disadvantage. </p>
<p>For First Nations peoples and communities, connections to and responsibilities for places (Country) are intimately intertwined with identity. For them, the <a href="https://www.cell.com/one-earth/pdf/S2590-3322(20)30250-5.pdf">impacts of climate change</a>, colonisation and resettlement interact, further complicating the question of relocation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-pacific-islanders-are-staying-put-even-as-rising-seas-flood-their-homes-and-crops-195100">Why Pacific Islanders are staying put even as rising seas flood their homes and crops</a>
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<hr>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-019-01463-1">Place attachment</a> – the emotional bond between people and their environment – might suppress the urge to move. But environmental change might fundamentally alter the characteristics that make a place unique. What we once loved and enjoyed <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.476">has then disappeared</a>. </p>
<p>This sort of change <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277953612003255">impacts human health</a> and results in feelings of <a href="https://www.cell.com/one-earth/pdf/S2590-3322(20)30250-5.pdf">loss and grief</a>. It can prompt people to decide to leave. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-planning-is-now-on-the-front-line-of-the-climate-crisis-this-is-what-it-means-for-our-cities-and-towns-193452">Urban planning is now on the front line of the climate crisis. This is what it means for our cities and towns</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>So who stays and who leaves?</h2>
<p>In our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666623523000028#sec0014">research</a>, we found that when residents imagined the loss of what they valued about Perth’s environment this significantly increased their intentions to move away and significantly decreased place attachment. They nominated bushland, beaches, fauna and flora, and the climate/weather as characteristics they valued and feared changing or losing as climate change progressed. One study participant wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It would be hotter and much more unpleasant in summer. I would miss the trees, plants and birds. I would hate living in a concrete jungle without the green spaces we have here. I would miss being able to cycle or walk to the local lakes to connect to nature and feel peaceful. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But social factors matter too. We found people who valued characteristics of Perth such as social relationships and lifestyle were more likely to stay as they tended to have less reduction in their place attachment. </p>
<p>We also found place attachment was associated with people acting to protect that place, such as protesting environmentally destructive policies. Yet people who were more likely to take such actions were also <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-019-01463-1">more likely to leave</a>. </p>
<p>This could make the remaining community more vulnerable to further unwanted change. That’s because those who can afford to relocate are usually the ones with the resources – psychological, social, political and financial – to take action to protect their homes, neighbourhoods and cities.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climigration-when-communities-must-move-because-of-climate-change-122529">'Climigration': when communities must move because of climate change</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Proper planning for adaptation is long overdue</h2>
<p>Climate change impacts everyone. It causes significant economic and non-economic losses for both individuals and communities. </p>
<p>Many locations are becoming unliveable. A changing climate and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-21/dark-roofs-raising-the-heat-in-australian-new-suburbs/102990304">inappropriately built or located housing</a> interact to create conditions where some people can or should no longer stay. </p>
<p>Some will be prompted or forced to move, but not everyone has that capacity. Furthermore, relocation pressures have environmental, infrastructure and social <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">consequences for the places to which they move</a>. </p>
<p>The housing crisis in Australia adds to resource constraints and their impacts for individuals and communities. Relocating can also disrupt psychological, emotional, social and cultural connections that are crucial for people’s wellbeing. </p>
<p>We need co-ordinated, well-governed, long-term planning for people to move in the face of environmental change to ensure equitable and positive transitions for individuals and communities. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>The authors wish to acknowledge the following contributors to this research: Professor Pierre Horwitz and Dr Naomi Godden (Centre for People, Place & Planet, ECU), Dr Deirdre Drake (School of Arts and Humanities, ECU) and Dr Francesca Perugia (School of Design and the Built Environment, Curtin University).</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221971/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justine Dandy received funding for this work from the Centre for People, Place and Planet, Edith Cowan University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zoe Leviston received funding for this work from the College of Health and Medicine, Australian National University</span></em></p>Climate change is increasing the risks of extreme heat, floods and bushfires, meaning more people are having to consider moving home. But different people come to different decisions.Justine Dandy, Associate Professor, Centre for People, Place & Planet, and School of Arts and Humanities, Edith Cowan UniversityZoe Leviston, Research Fellow, College of Health and Medicine, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230132024-02-08T13:40:00Z2024-02-08T13:40:00ZEl Niño is starting to lose strength after fueling a hot, stormy year, but it’s still powerful − an atmospheric scientist explains what’s ahead for 2024<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574206/original/file-20240207-16-vnmp3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C23%2C5107%2C3298&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In California, El Niño helped fuel a wet 2023 and early 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/person-walks-through-flood-waters-as-a-powerful-long-news-photo/1986231877">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wild weather has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">roiling North America</a> for the past few months, thanks in part to a strong El Niño that sent temperatures surging in 2023. The climate phenomenon fed <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-an-atmospheric-river-with-flooding-and-mudslides-in-california-a-hydrologist-explains-the-good-and-bad-of-these-storms-and-how-theyre-changing-222249">atmospheric rivers</a> drenching the West Coast and contributed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/summer-2023-was-the-hottest-on-record-yes-its-climate-change-but-dont-call-it-the-new-normal-213021">summer’s extreme heat</a> in the South and Midwest and fall’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">wet storms across the East</a>.</p>
<p>That strong El Niño is now <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">starting to weaken</a> and will likely be gone by late spring 2024.</p>
<p>So, what does that mean for the months ahead – and for the 2024 hurricane season?</p>
<h2>What is El Niño?</h2>
<p>Let’s start with a quick look at what an El Niño is.</p>
<p>El Niño and its opposite, La Niña, are <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html">climate patterns that influence weather</a> around the world. El Niño tends to raise global temperatures, as we saw in 2023, while La Niña events tend to be slightly cooler. The two result in global temperatures fluctuating above and below the <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature">warming trend set by climate change</a>. </p>
<p>El Niño starts as warm water builds up along the equator in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, off South America.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A colored map shows temperature differences with a warm area just west of South America along the equator." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reds and yellows show where Pacific waters were warmer in 2024 than in 2022. The abnormally warmer region along the equator is what we call El Niño. Weak El Niño events occur every few years, with strong events like this averaging once every 10 to 20 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Typically, tropical Pacific winds blow from the east, exposing cold water along the equator and building up warm water in the western Pacific. Every <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/understanding-el-nino">three to seven years or so</a>, however, these winds relax or turn to blow from the west. When that happens, warm water rushes to the east. The warmer-than-normal water drives more rainfall and alters winds around the world. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPok2G9Fyno">This is El Niño</a>.</p>
<p>The water stays warm for several months until, ultimately, it cools or is driven away from the equator by the return of the trade winds.</p>
<p><iframe id="aOiS8" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aOiS8/17/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>When the eastern Pacific region along the equator becomes abnormally cold, La Niña has emerged, and global weather patterns change again.</p>
<h2>What to expect from El Niño in 2024</h2>
<p>While the 2023-24 El Niño event <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">likely peaked in December</a>, it is still strong.</p>
<p>For the rest of winter, forecasts suggest that strong El Niño conditions will likely continue to favor unusual warmth in Canada and the northern United States and occasional stormy conditions across the southern states.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two maps of typical winter conditions under El Nino and La Nina show the Southwest wetter and the Northwest and upper Midwest generally warmer under El Nino." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Typical winters under El Niño and La Niña show the striking differences between the two patterns. Not all El Niños turn out this way.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-frequently-asked-questions">NOAA Climate.gov</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>El Niño is likely to end in late spring or early summer, shifting briefly to neutral. There’s a good chance we will see La Niña conditions this fall. But forecasting when that happens and what comes next is harder.</p>
<h2>How an El Niño ends</h2>
<p>While it’s easy to tell when an El Niño event reaches its peak, predicting when one will end depends on how the wind blows, and everyday weather affects the winds.</p>
<p>The warm area of surface water that defines El Niño typically becomes more shallow toward spring. In mid-May 1998, at the end of an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rPqIuXlWuA">even stronger El Niño event</a>, there was a time when people fishing in the warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific could have touched the cold water layer a few feet below by just jumping in. At that point, it took only a moderate breeze to pull the cold water to the surface, ending the El Niño event.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WPA-KpldDVc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How El Niño develops in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But exactly when a strong El Niño event reverses varies. A <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/12/how-the-super-el-nino-of-1982-83-kept-itself-a-secret/">big 1983 El Niño</a> didn’t end until July. And the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.241.4862.192">El Niño in 1987</a> retreated into the central Pacific but did not fully reverse until December.</p>
<p>As of early February 2024, strong westerly winds were driving warm water from west to east across the equatorial Pacific.</p>
<p>These winds tend to make El Niño last a little longer. However, they’re also likely to drive what little warm water remains along the equator out of the tropics, up and down the coasts of the Americas. The more warm water that is expelled, the greater the chances of full reversal to La Niña conditions in the fall.</p>
<h2>Summer and the hurricane risk</h2>
<p>Among the more important El Niño effects is its tendency to reduce <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-hurricane-season">Atlantic hurricane activity</a>.</p>
<p>El Niño’s Pacific Ocean heat affects upper level winds that blow across the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. That <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-is-wind-shear-and-how-does-it-impact-hurricanes-other-tropical-cyclones/330987">increases wind shear</a> - the change in wind speed and direction with height – which can tear hurricanes apart.</p>
<p>The 2024 hurricane season likely won’t have El Niño around to help weaken storms. But that doesn’t necessarily mean an active season.</p>
<p>During the <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-ranks-4th-for-most-named-storms-in-year">2023 Atlantic hurricane season</a>, El Niño’s effect on the winds was more than offset by abnormally warm Atlantic waters, which fuel hurricanes. The season ended with more storms than average.</p>
<h2>The strange El Niño of 2023-24</h2>
<p>Although the 2023-24 El Niño event wasn’t the strongest in recent decades, many aspects of it have been unusual.</p>
<p>It followed three years of La Niña conditions, which is unusually long. It also emerged quickly, from March to May 2023. The combination led to weather extremes unseen <a href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/04/a-horrific-drought-in-the-1870s-offers-a-warning-for-today/">since perhaps the 1870s</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two cars are trapped up to their widows in a mudslide that poured through a Los Angeles neighborhood. One car is parked in its driveway," src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extreme rainfall in early 2024 sent mudslides into dozens of Los Angeles-area neighborhoods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXCaliforniaStorms/b49e6373657e41f9964a64a6a631e5b6/photo">AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>La Niña cools the tropics but stores warm water in the western Pacific. It also warms the middle latitude oceans by weakening the winds and allowing more sunshine through. After three years of La Niña, the rapid emergence of El Niño helped make the Earth’s surface <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far">warmer than in any recent year</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223013/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Roundy receives funding from the National Science Foundation and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. </span></em></p>The strong El Niño that started in 2023 will still have big impacts at least through March. Here’s what to watch for next.Paul Roundy, Professor of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2227362024-02-05T23:46:49Z2024-02-05T23:46:49ZIs it time for a Category 6 for super cyclones? No – warnings of floods or storm surges are more useful<p>When a tropical cyclone forms, people who live in its path anxiously monitor news of its direction – and strength. If a Category 5 storm with wind speeds of 250 kilometres per hour is heading for you, you prepare differently than you would for a Category 1 with wind speeds of 65 km/h. </p>
<p>In a hotter world, cyclones are expected to become less common but <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">more intense</a> when they do form. That, according to <a href="https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2308901121">new research</a>, means it might be time to consider introducing a Category 6 to the hurricane scale used in the United States to better communicate the threat. </p>
<p>But do cyclone scales need a new category for more severe storms? Only one hurricane in the Western Hemisphere has yet gone past the 309 km/h winds the researchers nominate for a Category 6. And the whole idea of storm scales, including Australia’s own <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/understanding/categories/">tropical cyclone scale</a>, is that Category 5 storms are those likely to do catastrophic damage. It’s hard to see what a Category 6 could offer. </p>
<p>What is worth exploring is how we can better communicate what specific threats a given storm poses. Is it carrying more water than average, making flooding a bigger risk? Or are unusually intense winds likely to bring more water ashore in storm surges? </p>
<p>In December, Cyclone Jasper made landfall as a Category 2 storm in northern Queensland. Despite being at the lower end of severity, it dumped huge volumes of water and triggered devastating floods. Residents and farmers criticised the Bureau of Meteorology for not fully conveying the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-22/bom-warning-far-north-queensland-cyclone-floods-analysis/103256552">size of the threat</a>. More specific warnings could help. </p>
<h2>What are storm scales for?</h2>
<p>The world’s <a href="https://community.wmo.int/en/tropical-cyclone-regional-bodies#:%7E:text=The%20six%20tropical%20cyclone%20Regional,tropical%20cyclones%2C%20hurricanes%2C%20typhoons%20everywhere">tropical cyclone warning centres</a> classify cyclones using simple intensity scale systems based on maximum wind thresholds. Cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons are different names for the same tropical storms.</p>
<p>There are several different intensity scales in use. The <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php">Saffir-Simpson scale</a> is used by the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">US National Hurricane Center</a> for hurricanes forming in the central and eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic basins. Different scales are used in the Australian, North Indian, Southwest Indian, and western North Pacific basins. Importantly, every scale in use is open-ended, meaning their final category is based on winds greater than a certain threshold – but with no upper limit.</p>
<p>Tropical cyclones can pose many threat to us while at sea, as they approach and make landfall, and even afterwards.</p>
<p>These threats include the intense winds near the eye of the tropical cyclone, the ring of <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/education/natural-hazards/tropical-cyclone-and-severe-wind">damaging winds</a> which can extend hundreds of kilometres from the eye, wind-driven high seas, storm surge, heavy rainfall and associated flooding and mudslides. </p>
<p>We can’t say one of these is definitively more deadly or damaging than any other threat. Tropical Cyclone Oswald, a 2013 Category 1 storm, led to heavy rainfall and flooding through Queensland and New South Wales, while the 1992 Category 5 Hurricane Andrew caused catastrophic wind damage – but little rain or storm surge damage when it hit Florida.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-ilsa-just-broke-an-australian-wind-speed-record-an-expert-explains-why-the-science-behind-this-is-so-complex-203835">Cyclone Ilsa just broke an Australian wind speed record. An expert explains why the science behind this is so complex</a>
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<h2>So do we really need a Category 6?</h2>
<p>The researchers suggest a Category 6 on the Saffir-Simpson scale would be for storms with winds over 86 metres per second (309 km/h). </p>
<p>They suggest five tropical cyclones have now passed that threshold since 2013. Certainly, <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202015_Patricia.pdf">Hurricane Patricia</a> (2015) would meet that threshold. But this is the only one which meets their criteria in the last 40 years, as it was well observed by US aircraft missions. The other four were not in the Western Hemisphere – they were typhoons affecting Asia. In these areas, meteorologists do not use aircraft reconnaissance to confirm wind speeds. Estimates of wind speeds can vary substantially. That means the wind speeds of these four cannot be verified. </p>
<p>To make their case, the researchers also use the maximum possible intensity a tropical cyclone could reach in a given environment. It’s useful to scientists because it can be directly calculated from climate projections and is often used to explore how tropical cyclone intensity might change in the future. But it has an important limitation – tropical cyclones <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/128/4/1520-0493_2000_128_1139_asaotc_2.0.co_2.xml">rarely reach</a> their maximum potential intensity. </p>
<p>In their original formulation of the Saffir-Simpson scale, Herb Saffir and Bob Simpson described a Category 5 hurricane making landfall as one which would cause catastrophic destruction of all infrastructure. The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/understanding/categories/">Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale</a> has different thresholds but similar reasoning for a Category 5 storm. </p>
<p>Based on the understanding that winds at Category 5 and above lead to catastrophic outcomes, it’s hard to see how adding a Category 6 would help the public. If a Category 5 means “expect catastrophic consequences”, what would Category 6 mean? </p>
<h2>How can we best communicate cyclone threats?</h2>
<p>Scientists came up with tropical cyclone intensity scales as a way to clearly communicate the nature and size of the damage likely to occur. They are not intended to be comprehensive, as they’re based on a single wind speed valid only for the area near the eye, where the most intense winds occur. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, these scales are meant to measure how well our buildings and infrastructure can survive the wind force and also protect us. If our building codes, evacuation plans, and other protective strategies ever improved to the point where Category 5 storms no longer lead to catastrophic loss, it might make sense to introduce a Category 6. But we’re not at that point. The catastrophic loss from a Category 5 or Category 6 would look the same: catastrophic. </p>
<p>What we should do is explore whether we can improve the scale in different ways. Can we keep their simple, effective messages while also capturing the different threats a weather system like this can pose? </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-weak-tropical-cyclones-have-grown-more-intense-worldwide-we-tracked-30-years-of-them-using-currents-194891">Even weak tropical cyclones have grown more intense worldwide – we tracked 30 years of them using currents</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222736/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liz Ritchie-Tyo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cyclones and hurricanes are getting more intense. But introducing new categories of storm may not be the answer.Liz Ritchie-Tyo, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219952024-01-31T15:25:44Z2024-01-31T15:25:44ZWetlands are superheroes: expert sets out how they protect people and places<p>In the past, wetlands were often seen as <a href="https://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/Books/PDF/wetlands-and-people.pdf">undesirable landscapes</a> – waterlogged areas that were difficult to navigate, impossible to build on or farm, and a source of pests such as mosquitoes. But the view on wetlands has shifted as we have learnt how important these ecosystems are for essential “services”. They purify water and provide habitats for plants and animals.</p>
<p>Wetlands are also critical for supporting some people’s livelihoods, particularly in developing countries, including water-scarce countries like <a href="https://www.gov.za/WorldWetlandsDay2024">South Africa</a>. Wetlands provide over <a href="https://www.worldwetlandsday.org/materials#">1 billion livelihoods globally</a>; 660 million people depend on them for aquaculture and fishing. Livestock owners rely on wetlands as a water source for their animals.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wetlands-do-the-job-of-expensive-technology-if-we-let-them-125452">Wetlands do the job of expensive technology, if we let them</a>
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<p>In the last decade, the potential for wetlands to help with climate change adaptation has become more recognised. Wetlands absorb the carbon dioxide (CO₂) that contributes to global warming, and they reduce some of the impacts of climate change by curbing floods. </p>
<p>As a researcher, I led South Africa’s first national assessment of coastal wetlands as <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-study-to-estimate-blue-carbon-storage-in-south-africa-is-useful-for-climate-strategy-195458">“blue carbon”</a> sinks. These are marine habitats that can take up and store more carbon than terrestrial forests. My research has also assessed the impact that climate change will have on <a href="https://theconversation.com/mangrove-forests-wont-be-able-to-spread-further-in-south-africa-so-protecting-them-is-crucial-193547">mangrove forests</a>, otherwise known as coastal wetlands.</p>
<p>This has given me insights into wetlands and their importance in helping prevent the worst effects of climate change.</p>
<h2>Wetlands for people and planet</h2>
<p>Wetlands can provide a “nature-based solution” to assist with climate change, but only if they are protected and managed. For example, wetlands absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (like all plants do), and convert this into organic carbon (which makes up the plant as it grows). This organic carbon is deposited into the wetland mud as the plant grows through seasonal cycles, and the waterlogged conditions help to trap it there and prevent it being released back into the atmosphere. This carbon can be locked up for decades or centuries, which is a meaningful timescale for tackling climate change challenges. </p>
<p>In addition to mitigating climate change, wetlands can help humans to adapt to climate change. Many coastal areas are prone to increased flooding as a result of climate change, due to a combination of higher intensity storms and rainfall as well as rising sea levels. Wetlands are considered “ecological infrastructure” that provides protection from flooding. They have been successfully incorporated into shoreline <a href="https://www.wetlands.org/innovative-solutions-to-reduce-emissions-from-coastal-engineering/">engineering</a>. </p>
<p>Naturally occurring coastal wetlands (such as mangroves and salt marshes) can also buffer the effects of flooding if they are restored and maintained in <a href="https://envirobites.org/2022/05/02/rising-sea-levels-call-for-rising-wetlands/">good condition</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-root-cause-of-flooding-in-accra-developers-clogging-up-the-citys-wetlands-184270">A root cause of flooding in Accra: developers clogging up the city's wetlands</a>
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<p>Unfortunately, in many urban areas these wetlands have been lost or replaced with hard infrastructure such as buildings or roads. The protection from wetlands is then lost and flooding or sea-level rise can be more severe. Detailed studies at the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2989/16085914.2019.1662763">Knysna</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272771421003474">Swartkops</a> estuaries in South Africa have shown that salt marshes, another type of wetland, can provide protection from rising sea levels if they are restored. </p>
<h2>What’s missing</h2>
<p>For wetlands to continue to provide these services for climate mitigation and adaptation, their sustainability must be ensured. Many of these steps must be taken at the level of regional or national government, but individual citizens can also get involved. </p>
<p>Some actions that ordinary people can take to help preserve wetlands include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>educating themselves and others about the value of wetlands</p></li>
<li><p>participating in wetland restoration projects or clean-ups </p></li>
<li><p>directly contributing to organisations that conserve wetlands, such as the <a href="https://sawetlandsociety.org/">South African Wetland Society</a> and <a href="https://www.birdlife.org.za/">BirdLife South Africa</a></p></li>
<li><p>conserving water and reducing pollution from household chemicals </p></li>
<li><p>advocating for planning and zoning of new housing and business park developments that include wetlands in their design.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Even with adequate protection, the ability of wetlands to provide a variety of important ecological services is also limited by certain thresholds. For example, catastrophic flooding can cause scouring and erosion of wetlands, wiping them out completely.</p>
<p>Careful planning must be put in place to prepare for climate change-caused disasters like this. The complexity of climate change means that solutions need to be complex too: both nature and human engineering are resources for mitigation and adaptation. </p>
<p>Solutions will also need to be designed for local conditions: there isn’t a general solution for the same challenge in different areas. For example, for a solution that involves creating wetlands as <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acfdba/pdf">supporting infrastructure</a>, the size of the wetlands and the number of wetlands can influence how effective the flood mitigation of an area will be in comparison to built infrastructure such as flood control reservoirs and dams. Creating natural infrastructure such as wetlands can provide a cost-effective solution to improve built infrastructure in this way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221995/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacqueline L Raw works for Climate Neutral Group, a part of Anthesis which is the largest group of sustainability consultants globally. She is also a Research Associate at the Nelson Mandela University and has received funding from the National Research Foundation of South Africa. </span></em></p>Wetlands can prevent flooding, trap carbon and support livelihoods, as long as they are protected and managed.Jacqueline L Raw, Carbon Project Developer, Nelson Mandela UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2217372024-01-24T03:26:11Z2024-01-24T03:26:11ZAs another cyclone heads for Queensland, we must be ready for the new threat: torrential rain and floods<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571073/original/file-20240124-15-lfd1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3999%2C2999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We’ve long known cyclones are <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/46/a-look-inside-the-structure-of-a-tropical-cyclone/">heat engines</a>, fuelled by hot water. They also pump heat from the hot tropics into <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/tropical-cyclone-introduction">cooler areas</a>. But they’re starting to behave differently. As the world heats up, the atmosphere can hold more moisture. When cyclones form, they can transfer significantly more water from oceans to land. </p>
<p>We saw this in December. Most of the damage done by Cyclone Jasper when it hit far north Queensland wasn’t from the intense winds. It was when the Category 2 storm stalled over Cape York, dumping huge amounts of rain – over 2 metres in some areas – and triggering devastating floods. </p>
<p>It’s likely to happen again this week, as a slow-moving tropical low heads for northern Queensland, carrying huge volumes of water and <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/cyclone-kirrily-updates-system-likely-to-bring-heavy-rain-and-destructive-winds-to-north-queensland/1df6528e-3028-40bc-8c32-868ba005488f">threatening new floods</a>. Authorities are warning people to prepare – not just on the coast but well inland. </p>
<p>The storm – likely to be named Cyclone Kirrily – will be the second to make landfall this season. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map of queensland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Rain from Cyclone Kirrily is likely to stretch well inland. This map shows the rainfall forecast for Friday January 26th.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cyclone Kirrily: Prepare for floods as well as winds</h2>
<p>The tropical storm has taken a long time to intensify and is moving very slowly. While it hasn’t yet reached cyclone status, it is expected to make landfall as a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-24/tropical-cyclone-kirrily-category-two-queensland-bom/103378666">Category 2 storm</a>.</p>
<p>What it is carrying, though, is water – enough to dump up to a metre of rain in some places, and a long way into central and western Queensland. </p>
<p>If you live in northern Australia, you’ll know about <a href="https://www.getready.qld.gov.au/getting-ready/cyclones">being prepared</a> for cyclones. When a warning arrives, people pack away or tie down loose objects, trim tree branches and fill up the bathtub in case water supplies are disrupted. </p>
<p>But often, we’re focused just on the damaging winds – when water can often do more damage. </p>
<p>If you live close to the sea, the storm surge – flooding from the sea – is often underestimated as a threat.</p>
<p>But the new major threat is terrestrial flooding. We are already starting to see <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01344-2">significantly more rainfall</a> linked to cyclones. Warmer air holds more moisture, and the world is steadily heating up. </p>
<p>This summer, sea surface temperatures have been unusually high off the east coast, all the way from Cape York down to Tasmania. Normally, in El Niño, we would expect lower sea surface temperatures and higher air temperatures. But this El Niño isn’t behaving as we’d normally expect. That’s one reason the east coast has had so much summer rain. </p>
<p>Normally, 75% of Australia’s cyclones hit the northwest of Western Australia, due to the high sea surface temperatures and the way the coast is oriented. But this year, the northwest region is sweltering in heatwaves – but no cyclones have yet made landfall. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods-are-a-frightening-portent-of-whats-to-come-under-climate-change-220039">North Queensland's record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what's to come under climate change</a>
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<h2>The future has fewer cyclones, but more intense</h2>
<p>Climate change is expected to change tropical cyclone patterns. The overall number is expected to decrease, but their intensity will likely <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml">increase</a>, bringing stronger wind and heavier rain.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I have found the change is already happening. The low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12882#:%7E:text=There%20has%20been%20significantly%20less,22.42%2C%20P%20%3C%200.001">are unprecedented</a> over the past 550 to 1,500 years. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07234">More intense</a> tropical cyclones are expected because higher sea-surface temperatures will make the atmosphere more warm and moist. Cyclones thrive in such conditions.</p>
<p>But the general frequency of tropical cyclones is expected to <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/3cf983377b8043ff1ecf15709eebf298.pdf">reduce</a> under climate change in most ocean basins, including the Indian Ocean.</p>
<p>Tropical cyclones usually form when there’s a large difference between temperatures at Earth’s surface and the upper atmosphere. As the climate warms, this temperature difference is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/managing-the-risks-of-extreme-events-and-disasters-to-advance-climate-change-adaptation/">likely to narrow</a>.</p>
<p>As the heat in the oceans intensifies, cyclones will be able to form further down the east coast. Cyclones have hit Brisbane and even northern New South Wales in the past. These tropical storms form over warm water – between 26.5 and 30°C. The water along Kirrily’s track is at the higher end – around 30°C. Warm water produces warm, moist air, which is the energy-dense feedstock of cyclones. </p>
<h2>What should we do to prepare?</h2>
<p>In states such as Queensland, emergency response is a finely honed art. We’re excellent at dealing with the emergency when it’s happening and the immediate aftermath. </p>
<p>But we’ve still got a long way to go in mitigation. Houses are still being built in the path of flooding rivers or where they can be hit by storm surge. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/anatomy-of-monster-storm-how-cyclone-ilsa-is-shaping-up-to-devastate-the-wa-coast-203678">Anatomy of monster storm: how Cyclone Ilsa is shaping up to devastate the WA coast</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221737/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Nott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new threat from cyclones can come from behind you – flooding from more intense rainfall.Jonathan Nott, Professor of Physical Geography, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214962024-01-23T18:59:54Z2024-01-23T18:59:54ZDid the BOM get it wrong on the hot, dry summer? No – predicting chaotic systems is probability, not certainty<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570789/original/file-20240123-15-btnti9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C6%2C4123%2C2763&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What happened to the <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/releases/1205/the-bureau-forecasts-an-unusually-warm-summer/">scorching El Niño summer</a> we were bracing for? Why has the east coast of Australia been drenched while the north and west gets the heat? </p>
<p>For beachgoers, a wrong weather forecast is annoying. For farmers, it can be very expensive. And for northern Queensland residents surprised by flooding after Cyclone Jasper, it can be devastating. Small wonder there’s <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/farmers-roast-bom-forecasts-but-it-says-its-top-five-in-the-world/news-story/c945a38830fd6ea189e253b91b03fd36">been plenty</a> of <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2023/12/20/bom-criticised-for-queensland-rain-forecasts/">criticism</a> levelled at the Bureau of Meteorology and other forecasting agencies this summer. </p>
<p>The criticism is understandable. But is it fair? No. The reason is that weather forecasting is inherently not about certainty but probability. Our atmosphere and oceans do not behave in simple, easily predictable ways. They are <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230203-why-the-world-feels-so-unstable-right-now">non-linear, chaotic systems</a>. That means we can only predict large weather features such as highs and lows or bands of storms with relative certainty and even then only for a few days in advance. </p>
<h2>We want certainty – but we have to settle for probability</h2>
<p>Let’s say you check your weather app and see your location has a 60% chance of rain at midday. What does this actually mean? </p>
<p>It means if this forecast was issued 100 times, you should get wet 60 times and stay dry 40 times.</p>
<p>To forecast rainfall <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary">for a whole season ahead</a>, meteorologists generally calculate the chance of exceeding average conditions, rather than stating that we will have a dry or wet summer with certainty. </p>
<p>So if we predict a 25% chance of above-average rain during an El Niño summer, we would expect that one out of every four times we make this prediction, we would observe higher rainfall than the average. </p>
<p>So how then do we know if we are making good forecasts? Given that a 60% chance of rain can mean wet or dry, albeit with different odds, we certainly won’t be able to judge the forecast quality based on a single event. Instead, we assess many forecasts of 60% rain made in the past to see if the 60 to 40 split of wet and dry eventuated. If it did for this and all other possible probabilities, the forecasts work well. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="storms entering sydney" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Big weather events such as bands of storms are easier to predict with some certainty. But other weather is much harder.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This isn’t what we’d like. Many of us find probabilistic forecasts confusing. Intuitively, we would prefer to simplify them into absolute statements. </p>
<p>Take a picnic you have planned for tomorrow. If you read the statement “there will be thunderstorms at noon tomorrow at Picnic Spot,” you will feel confident it’s best to cancel the event. But the statement “there’s a 60% chance of thunderstorms at noon tomorrow at Picnic Spot” is far more accurate. The first gives false certainty, by vastly oversimplifying what we really know. </p>
<p>Let’s not forget, there is a 40% chance it will stay dry, which the first statement completely ignores. And if it does stay dry, how will your friends react to the cancelled picnic? How much risk are you willing to take?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-do-people-know-what-the-weather-will-be-108295">Curious Kids: how do people know what the weather will be?</a>
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<p>When we criticise weather forecasts for their inaccuracy, we are usually being unfair. You can’t actually say a weather forecast was wrong if you experienced rain when the forecast was for a high chance of being dry. It’s simply not possible to tell from a single day or even a season how well our forecasts are working because of the nature of how our atmosphere and oceans behave. We’ve known about this <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/20/2/1520-0469_1963_020_0130_dnf_2_0_co_2.xml">for 60 years</a>. </p>
<p>That is why the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal forecasts come in likelihoods, such as the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20230928-outlook.shtml">rainfall outlook for October to December</a> issued on September 28th. It predicted that “October to December rainfall was likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below median for much of Australia excluding most of central and northwestern WA and south-west Tasmania.” Note that the forecast had a 20-40% chance for the wetter than usual conditions which some parts of Australia ended up experiencing. </p>
<p>But beware: We can’t declare the success or failure of a likelihood forecast from a single season. What the likelihood gives us is the ability to make better decisions based on the best information we have. </p>
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<h2>Less than certain but far better than nothing</h2>
<p>Given these constraints, how can we best use probabilistic forecasts in making decisions? </p>
<p>Here, weather and climate forecasting alone cannot provide the answers. The use and value of a particular forecast strongly depend on what decisions need to be made, our values, and what economic circumstances decisions are made in. </p>
<p>A very simple example is to <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49712757715">assess how much</a> it would cost to protect ourselves against, say, a flood, and the loss we would incur if we did not protect ourselves and then the event happened. </p>
<p>If the cost of protection is very low and the loss very large, the answer is simple: protect yourself all the time. High protection costs and low losses imply we should never protect ourselves. Both statements can be made without bringing in the forecast probability. But in the middle, it gets tricky. How much should you spend on a highly damaging event with a low probability of occurring? </p>
<p>Deterministic weather forecasts giving certainty are only possible for a week or two, and only for the large features of the weather. This means longer term forecasts and those for intense weather systems such as thunderstorms or tropical cyclones will only ever be possible by assessing how likely different outcomes are, and giving us a probability. </p>
<p>It’s fine to complain about the weather. But we can’t complain about the forecasting based on a single event. We want to know what’s coming our way, but the weather doesn’t work like that. We owe it to society to provide and use the best information we have to protect and save property and lives. There is too much at stake to keep it simple. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-is-outpacing-even-the-worst-case-scenarios-of-our-forecasting-models-216562">Extreme weather is outpacing even the worst-case scenarios of our forecasting models</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221496/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Jakob receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>We crave certainty in our weather forecasts. But that’s only possible for big weather events such as cyclones and major storms. Everything else is probability.Christian Jakob, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2135482024-01-22T19:04:52Z2024-01-22T19:04:52ZWhen floodwater reaches the sea, it can leave a 50 metre thick layer of brown water – and cause real problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570535/original/file-20240122-20-4lzjgn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C0%2C4223%2C2848&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over this wet summer, Melburnians and Sydneysiders have had to think twice about cooling off at their local beach. Heavy rainfall has swollen rivers and pumped pollutants, nutrients and murky fresh water far out to sea. Swimmers at Port Phillip Bay beaches are emerging <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-bay-has-turned-brown-and-swimmers-are-emerging-coated-in-a-strange-goo-20240118-p5ey9u.html">coated in brown goo</a>, while Sydney’s seas were contaminated <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-is-having-a-scorcher-think-twice-before-you-get-in-the-ocean-20240118-p5ey6a.html">last week</a>. </p>
<p>During 2022, floods repeatedly hit Australia’s eastern seaboard, causing an estimated A$3.5 billion in damage and tragic loss of life. In Sydney, it was the wettest year on record, with 2.2 metres of rain falling in the year, twice as much as usual. The heavy rainfall event in March–April dropped more than 600 millimetres of rain alone. </p>
<p>We don’t normally think about what happens to floodwater once it pulses out to sea. But we should. Floodwater is fresh. When it hits the sea in large volumes, it lowers the coastal ocean’s salinity. In our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-44398-2">new research</a>, we found floodwaters in 2022 led to 116 extreme low salinity days off Sydney – ten times more than the annual average. Extreme low salinity days are those that fall into the bottom 5% of salinity values ever measured at this location.</p>
<p>Normally, this effect clears within six days. But in 2022, extreme low salinity persisted for months in the coastal ocean. These plumes of freshwater extended as far as 70 kilometres offshore – five times further than original estimates. You could see them from space. For fish, this is confusing and dangerous. For kelp forests or sponge gardens, it can be lethal. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="satellite image of New South Wales coast with floodwaters going into sea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plumes of floodwater pushed far out to sea during the 2022 floods. This image shows the Hunter River on April 11 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Earth Observatory</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Unprecedented floodwaters, unprecedented impact</h2>
<p>Why do we care about very low salt levels in our coastal seas? </p>
<p>First, changing salinity levels let us track where floodwaters are headed. This is important, as floodwater often carries pollutants, sediment and other contaminants from the land into the ocean. </p>
<p>Second, when large volumes of freshwater arrive, it can actually change the density of the ocean. Saltwater is heavier (more dense) than freshwater, which is why some seabirds can find a layer of drinking water far out at sea when it rains heavily.</p>
<p>The ocean’s density depends on a combination of water temperature and salinity. Off Australia’s east coast, this density is usually influenced more by temperature. But during 2022, we saw something change. For the first time, we saw the density of seawater was becoming controlled by salinity. </p>
<p>Rather than the hottest temperatures always being seen at the surface, the heat could be anywhere in the water column, as the weight (or density) of the water was mostly being controlled by how much salt it contains, not how warm it was. </p>
<p>You might look at the sea and imagine it’s the same all the way down. But in fact, there are very real changes as you go down the water column, and there are distinct layers of water. </p>
<p>What this pulse of floodwater did was change the structure and layering of the water column in unusual ways. In this coastal ocean, there’s usually a light layer of warm water at the top and colder water below it. During 2022, the normal ocean water was replaced by two additional layers of fresher water from successive floods. </p>
<p>The 50-metre deep layer of fresh water didn’t simply mix with salt. Instead, the floodwaters remained off our coastline for months, trapped between the land and the warm, swiftly flowing waters of the East Australian Current. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-causing-sydneys-monster-flood-crisis-and-3-ways-to-stop-it-from-happening-again-186285">What's causing Sydney's monster flood crisis – and 3 ways to stop it from happening again</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What does freshwater do to ocean ecosystems?</h2>
<p>Some coastal species such as bream tolerate freshwater well. But others don’t like it at all. We expect the sudden appearance of a very large freshwater layer would have forced fish to move. The sediment and pollutants in the floodwaters can disrupt normal food supplies for the ocean’s inhabitants. </p>
<p>We already know floodwater can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771422002189?via%3Dihub">destroy kelp forests</a> or cover verdant seagrass meadows with sediment, affecting <a href="https://www.des.qld.gov.au/our-department/news-media/mediareleases/2023/great-sandy-strait-seagrass-recovering-from-floods">turtles and dugong</a>. This, in turn, can temporarily slash the catch from some fisheries. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1374550651129098243"}"></div></p>
<h2>How did we track these changes?</h2>
<p>Off the eastern coast lies an advanced network of ocean sensors, deployed as part of Australia’s <a href="https://imos.org.au/">Integrated Marine Observing System</a>. For our work, we used data from oceanographic moorings – sensors anchored to the floor and extending through the water column – as well as underwater gliders, an underwater drone packed with instruments. </p>
<p>Moorings give us detailed, consistent information but only at a few locations. Gliders travel hundreds of kilometres up and down the length of the coastline in a zigzag pattern, from the coast offshore and back, and diving from the surface to the bottom around every 200 metres. </p>
<p>We used data from moorings, gliders, satellite data and estuary monitoring sensors run by the New South Wales Department of Planning and Environment to build up a picture of where floodwaters had moved. </p>
<p>Even though we have a good system of sensors, our observing systems are geared towards monitoring temperature rather than salinity, meaning that this type of analysis can only be performed in certain parts of the coast that have the right instruments.</p>
<h2>Climate change is worsening floods. Could it weaken coastal ocean salinity?</h2>
<p>Globally, there’s little data on how salty our coastal seas are – and what floodwaters are doing, especially in areas where large rainfall is intermittent, such as eastern Australia. In 2022, severe floods also hit <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150470/flood-woes-continue-in-pakistan">Pakistan</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/durban-floods-119698">South Africa</a>. </p>
<p>These regions don’t yet have ocean observing systems capable of detecting and tracking the impact of floodwaters on the ocean. We don’t know what these unprecedented floods are doing to ocean ecosystems – but it’s important we find out. </p>
<p>Extreme rainfall events are expected to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2941">increase</a> globally due to climate change. We will need to determine what’s happening down there to plan our response and adapt as best we can. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-new-south-wales-reels-many-are-asking-why-its-flooding-in-places-where-its-never-flooded-before-190912">As New South Wales reels, many are asking why it's flooding in places where it's never flooded before</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Malan receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Moninya Roughan receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and Australia's National Collaborative Research Infrastructure (NCRIS) through support of the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS)</span></em></p>Floodwaters pulsing into the sea normally clear within six days. But the 2022 floods in eastern Australia were different.Neil Malan, Research associate, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW SydneyMoninya Roughan, Professor in Oceanography, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2206342024-01-09T17:03:11Z2024-01-09T17:03:11Z2023’s billion-dollar disasters list shattered the US record with 28 big weather and climate disasters amid Earth’s hottest year on record<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568310/original/file-20240108-17-d7axzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=592%2C875%2C1145%2C839&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flood water filled streets in downtown Montpelier, Vt., on July 11, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/person-walks-through-the-flooded-waters-of-main-street-on-news-photo/1524301769?adppopup=true">Kylie Cooper/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>National weather analysts released their 2023 <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events/US/1980-2023">billion-dollar disasters</a> list on Jan. 9, just as 2024 was getting <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?">off to a ferocious start</a>. A <a href="https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/midwest-to-see-three-rounds-of-snow">blizzard was sweeping across</a> across the Plains and Midwest, and the South and East faced flood risks from <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/eastern-us-snow-storm-01-09-24/index.html">extreme downpours</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. set an unwelcome record for weather and climate disasters in 2023, with <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">28 disasters</a> that exceeded more than US$1 billion in damage each. </p>
<p>While it wasn’t the most expensive year overall – the costliest years included multiple hurricane strikes – it had the highest number of billion-dollar storms, floods, droughts and fires of any year since counting began in 1980, with <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-struck-with-historic-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2023">six more than any other year</a>, accounting for inflation. </p>
<p><iframe id="FOf4d" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FOf4d/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows where disasters that did more than $1 billion in damage hit the United States." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2023’s billion-dollar disasters. Click the image to expand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-struck-with-historic-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2023">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The year’s most expensive disaster started with an <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151632/relentless-heat-in-the-southwest">unprecedented heat wave</a> that sat over Texas for weeks over the summer and then spread into the South and Midwest, helping fuel a destructive drought. The extreme heat and lack of rain dried up fields, forced ranchers to sell off livestock and restricted commerce on the Mississippi River, causing about <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events">US$14.5 billion in damage</a>, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/faq">conservative estimates</a>.</p>
<p>Extreme dryness in Hawaii contributed to another multi-billion-dollar disaster as it fueled <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">devastating wildfires</a> that destroyed Lahaina, Hawaii, in August. </p>
<p>Other billion-dollar disasters included <a href="https://www.weather.gov/tae/HurricaneIdalia2023">Hurricane Idalia</a>, which hit Florida in August; floods in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">Northeast</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">California</a>; and nearly two dozen other severe storms across the country. States in a swath from Texas to Ohio were hit by multiple billion-dollar storms.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man with a bicycle walks through a scene of destruction after the fire in Lahaina." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C1920%2C1258&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wildfire left almost the entire city of Lahaina, Hawaii, in ashes in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PicturesoftheWeek-Global-PhotoGallery/15a6864806e24d0cbb8b1037cfcf9931/photo">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live-205974">El Niño</a> played a role in some of these disasters, but at the root of the world’s increasingly frequent extreme heat and weather is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/">global warming</a>. The year 2023 was the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">hottest on record globally</a> and the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202312">fifth warmest in the U.S.</a></p>
<p>I am <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shuang-Ye-Wu">an atmospheric scientist</a> who studies the changing climate. Here’s a quick look at what global warming has to do with wildfires, storms and other weather and climate disasters.</p>
<h2>Dangerous heat waves and devastating wildfires</h2>
<p>When greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide from vehicles and power plants, accumulate in the atmosphere, they <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/19/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/">act like a thermal blanket</a> that warms the planet. </p>
<p>These gases let in high-energy solar radiation while absorbing outgoing low-energy radiation in the form of heat from the Earth. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/earths-energy-budget-is-out-of-balance-heres-how-thats-warming-the-climate-165244">energy imbalance</a> at the Earth’s surface gradually increases the surface temperature of the land and oceans.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SN5-DnOHQmE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How the greenhouse effect functions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most direct consequence of this warming is more days with abnormally high temperatures, as large parts of the country saw in 2023.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/jpl/nasa-data-shows-fierce-surface-temperatures-during-phoenix-heat-wave/">Phoenix</a> went 30 days with daily high temperatures at <a href="https://apnews.com/article/southwest-extreme-heat-wave-922e965ba3d3e42cbffc2ece12d5c114">110 F (43.3 C) or higher</a> and recorded its highest minimum nighttime temperature, with temperatures on July 19 never falling below 97 F (36.1 C).</p>
<p>Although heat waves result from weather fluctuations, <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change/">global warming has raised the baseline</a>, making heat waves more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps and charts show extreme heat events increasing in many parts of the U.S., both in length of heat wave season and in number of heat waves per year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The number of multi-day extreme heat events has been rising. U.S. Global Change Research Program.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalchange.gov/indicators/heat-waves">U.S. Global Change Research Program</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That heat also fuels wildfires.</p>
<p>Increased evaporation removes more moisture from the ground, drying out soil, grasses and other organic material, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">creates favorable conditions for wildfires</a>. All it takes is a lightning strike or spark from a power line to start a blaze. </p>
<h2>How global warming fuels extreme storms</h2>
<p>As more heat is stored as energy in the atmosphere and oceans, it doesn’t just increase the temperature – it can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">increase the amount of water vapor</a> in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>When that water vapor condenses to liquid and falls as rain, it releases a large amount of energy. This is called <a href="https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2022/08/31/rain-energy-relationship/">latent heat</a>, and it is the main fuel for all storm systems. When temperatures are higher and the atmosphere has more moisture, that additional energy can fuel <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">stronger, longer-lasting storms</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two older adults look out a window over a yard turned to mud. The mudline on the house is almost up to the window sill, and the garage's doors have been torn off and are leaning down." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tropical Storm Hilary flooded several areas in Southern California, stranding people for days.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-trapped-in-their-home-peer-out-a-window-while-news-photo/1614093982">Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tropical storms are similarly fueled by latent heat coming from warm ocean water. That is why they only form when the sea surface temperature reaches a <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/tropical-cyclone-introduction">critical level of around 80 F</a> (27 C).</p>
<p>With <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/">90% of the excess heat</a> from global warming being absorbed by the ocean, there has been a significant increase in the <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">global sea surface temperature</a>, including record-breaking levels in 2023.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart of daily global average ocean temperatures since 1981 shows 2023 heat far above any other year starting in mid-March and staying there through the year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global ocean heat in 2023 was at its highest in over four decades of records.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Higher sea surface temperatures can lead to <a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">stronger hurricanes</a>, <a href="https://www.lsu.edu/mediacenter/news/2023/07/24keimhurricaneseason.rh.php">longer hurricane seasons</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">faster intensification</a> of tropical storms.</p>
<h2>Cold snaps have global warming connections, too</h2>
<p>It might seem counterintuitive, but global warming can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">contribute to cold snaps</a> in the U.S. That’s because it alters the general circulation of Earth’s atmosphere.</p>
<p>The Earth’s atmosphere is constantly moving in large-scale circulation patterns in the forms of near-surface wind belts, such as the trade winds, and upper-level jet streams. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">These patterns</a> are caused by the temperature difference between the polar and equatorial regions.</p>
<p>As the Earth warms, the polar regions are heating up <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/warming-polar-regions">more than twice as fast</a> as the equator. This can shift weather patterns, leading to extreme events in unexpected places. Anyone who has experienced a “polar vortex event” knows how it feels when the jet stream dips southward, bringing frigid Arctic air and winter storms, despite the generally warmer winters.</p>
<p>In sum, a warmer world is a more violent world, with the additional heat fueling increasingly more extreme weather events.</p>
<p><em>This article, <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">originally published Dec. 19, 2023</a>, was updated Jan. 9, 2024, with NOAA’s disasters list.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220634/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An atmospheric scientist explains how rising temperatures are helping to fuel extreme storms, floods, droughts and devastating wildfires.Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189752023-12-29T11:40:00Z2023-12-29T11:40:00ZThe secret world of puddles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565473/original/file-20231213-16-omthqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C209%2C4169%2C3093&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Puddles can be valuable wildlife havens.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/water-splash-shoes-mens-feet-hiking-1857225058">Maksim Safaniuk/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the new year arrived in 2016, my home city of Newcastle upon Tyne was briefly the centre of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/01/the-puddle/422955/">global attention</a> – for a puddle. The Drummond Puddle, as it was grandly known, was a watery hazard placed perfectly where converging footpaths funnelled a daily stream of victims to their doom. To the wonderment of the world, their fate was <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRXuE7PBdLI">livestreamed</a> over the internet to more than half a million viewers. </p>
<p>But puddles are not merely a source of delight for wicked-minded onlookers. We can all, surely, remember the joy of splashing in a puddle – a universal example of creative play and getting to know the environment.</p>
<p>And yet, the conservation value of these tiny sites is still largely unappreciated. For puddles can be valuable wildlife havens too.</p>
<p>One <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.limno.2012.07.002">study</a> of the invertebrate inhabitants of puddles in the UK countryside found a majority of these sites had a high conservation value, primarily due to the rare, specialist animals they hosted. Puddles may be commonplace, but their wildlife need not be.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/uRXuE7PBdLI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This 2016 Periscope video shows people trying to avoid stepping in Newcastle’s Drummond Puddle.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Your own private pool</h2>
<p>The tiny, fragmented, ephemeral world of puddles creates the ideal habitat for some species. The isolation and brief life of many of these mini-ponds keeps long-lived, larger predators and competitors at bay, opening up opportunities for more “live fast, die young” life. </p>
<p>In the UK, the most famous examples are the <a href="https://insidedio.blog.gov.uk/2018/10/22/an-exclusive-tour-around-the-plain/">fairy shrimps</a> of puddles on Salisbury Plain in Wiltshire. Large areas of Salisbury Plain are given over to military training, and the churning tracks of tanks create many temporary pools that house these muddy lodgers.</p>
<p>The eggs of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/fairy-shrimp">fairy shrimp</a> are resistant to drought. They remain dormant, but viable, for many years and are spread by the wind or, in the case of Salisbury Plain, are carried in the mud spattered on military vehicles. </p>
<p>When rain fills a track in the dried mud, fairy shrimp eggs hatch almost immediately. The shrimps grow quickly to lay a new generation of eggs before their puddle dries.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Frozen puddles in tank tracks on Salisbury Plain." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565471/original/file-20231213-15-a9b1jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565471/original/file-20231213-15-a9b1jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565471/original/file-20231213-15-a9b1jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565471/original/file-20231213-15-a9b1jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565471/original/file-20231213-15-a9b1jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565471/original/file-20231213-15-a9b1jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565471/original/file-20231213-15-a9b1jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Frozen puddles in tank tracks on Salisbury Plain, Wiltshire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/snow-covered-frozen-iced-puddle-off-1914696466">Martin Hibberd/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other landscapes also harbour important puddles that we have helped to create. The Lizard Peninsula in Cornwall supports a network of trackways that date back to pre-historic times. Temporary pools have developed within these trackways, supporting rare specialist plants like the <a href="https://www.conservationevidence.com/reference/pdf/4018">pygmy rush</a>. </p>
<p>In the US, over the past decade, the rare <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/clam-shrimp">clam shrimp</a> has <a href="https://urbanhabitats.org/v02n01/biodiversitypatterns_pdf.pdf">been found</a> in puddles on the dirt surface of a gas pipeline road in New Jersey. The clam shrimp had only previously been identified in a handful of sites in the north-eastern US.</p>
<h2>Puddle problems</h2>
<p>Human activity may also be creating puddles in urban landscapes. The rapid urbanisation of Beijing has been <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1878029616302298">linked</a> with increasing the numbers of puddles in the Chinese capital, largely by accident as sites are demolished ready for new developments. As soon as the new build is started, however, these ponds are buried and lost.</p>
<p>The wildlife of urban puddles on roads and pavements has received much less attention compared with other urban habitats, such as flowerbeds or small ponds. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.12911/22998993/111463">research</a> in urban areas of south-east Poland shows that single-celled algae such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/diatom">diatoms</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/desmid">desmids</a> thrive in these puddle environments. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2530064420300225?via%3Dihub">Studies</a> in Brazil have also credited deforestation in the Xingu basin with driving “lentification” – creating water bodies that include puddles. Puddles in these more tropical regions of the world support the ominous presence of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/mosquito-insect">mosquito larvae</a>. </p>
<p>The same safety from predators provided by puddles that benefits fairy and clam shrimps is also important to mosquitoes. In one <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335091956_Assessment_of_Physico-Chemical_and_Ecological_Variables_in_Selected_Natural_Breeding_Sites_of_Mosquitoes_in_Ibadan_Oyo_State_Nigeria">study</a> in Nigeria, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/Anopheles"><em>Anopheles</em> mosquito</a> larvae were found in a higher proportion of road puddles than in other small water bodies.</p>
<p>Birds often look to exploit ponds and puddles, looking for drowned worms after prolonged rain. But worms are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1744-7410.2007.00117.x">not that easy</a> to drown (although it varies by species). So maybe the sorry, soggy specimens stuck in puddles are just unlucky, slowed down as they flounder in the water, becoming very obvious to birds with an eye for an easy meal.</p>
<p>Puddles are, however, not a positive substitute for the problems caused by urbanisation and habitat loss. In Poland, birds using road puddles for a wash <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24750263.2022.2101699">risk</a> being killed by traffic. </p>
<h2>Planet puddle</h2>
<p>While we might be most familiar with the puddles of pavements and streets, there are natural puddle habitats too – and these are very widespread all over the planet. Puddles on ice sheets and glaciers called <a href="https://zslpublications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jzo.12832">cryoconite holes</a> are home to a cosmopolitan fauna of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/Devils-worm">nematode worms</a>, mites and the famously tough <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/mar/20/tardigrades-natures-great-survivors">tardigrades</a>. </p>
<p>Puddles also occur in deserts, often as tiny rock pools. By arranging sticky traps around these rock pools, researchers in South Africa showed how wind dispersal <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10750-009-9929-z">helps their inhabitants travel</a>. As the rock pools dried, the traps caught wind-borne eggs blowing in the dust, carrying a mix of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/water-flea">waterfleas</a>, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/zsc.12505#:%7E:text=Laevicaudatan%20branchiopods%2C%20also%20called%20%E2%80%98smooth%20clam%20shrimps%E2%80%99%20or,90%25%20of%20which%20belong%20to%20the%20genus%20Lynceus.">pea shrimps</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/mite">mites</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565472/original/file-20231213-25-qdygg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An image of a tardigrade under a microscope." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565472/original/file-20231213-25-qdygg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565472/original/file-20231213-25-qdygg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565472/original/file-20231213-25-qdygg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565472/original/file-20231213-25-qdygg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565472/original/file-20231213-25-qdygg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565472/original/file-20231213-25-qdygg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565472/original/file-20231213-25-qdygg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tardigrades are famed among biologists for their ability to survive conditions that would kill almost any other animal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tardigrade-water-bear-microscope-magnification-2111263538">Videologia/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Urban puddles might still be the toughest environment of all, compared with the puddles in these glacier and desert habitats. But in all cases, there is much more to puddles than meets the eye – not just tiny shrimps or marooned worms.</p>
<p>Some of the strange creatures they contain are much more conspicuous. Video coverage of the Drummond Pond in Newcastle in 2016 even captured some two-legged inhabitants that appeared to be large, mammalian and naked …</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Jeffries does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Puddles are an often-ignored but crucial habitat for rare and unusual wildlife.Mike Jeffries, Associate Professor, Ecology, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166442023-12-21T04:39:12Z2023-12-21T04:39:12ZWhen disaster strikes, emergency responders can’t respond to every call. Communities must be helped to help themselves<p>As record-breaking floods in North Queensland ease and water levels recede, the focus now turns to the mop-up and recovery. Residents have been <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgkfqttxNqk">supporting</a> each other through the flood crisis, such as processing donated goods, conducting welfare checks on neighbours and helping each other clean up homes.</p>
<p>Such community resilience in disasters is vital. <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/nsw-government/projects-and-initiatives/floodinquiry">Successive</a> <a href="https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/natural-disasters">inquiries</a> have shown we can’t rely solely on emergency services in large disasters. Crews can’t get to every community straight away, or provide support to every household that needs assistance.</p>
<p>Our research shows how communities can be supported to respond in a crisis – during the event, in the immediate aftermath and beyond.</p>
<p>As climate change worsens, extreme weather events are the new norm. Local community building and preparedness is now more important than ever.</p>
<h2>Building disaster resilience</h2>
<p>Volunteer numbers are <a href="https://www.volunteeringaustralia.org/wp-content/uploads/VRP_The-Decline-of-Formal-Volunteering-in-Australia-2001%E2%80%932020-Insights-from-the-HILDA-Survey.pdf">declining nationally</a>. However, when disaster strikes, people show a willingness to step forward and help their communities.</p>
<p>We have researched <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-environment-institute/news/2023/08/02/communities-self-organising-for-climate-disasters.html">community-led responses</a> to disasters in three locations in New South Wales – the Northern Rivers, Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury regions. We examined how community networks organised themselves during the response and recovery phases of the Black Summer bushfires (2019-20) and major floods (2020-22). </p>
<p>We found people leapt into action and helped one another: relaying early warning messages, distributing food when roads were cut and then cleaning up afterwards. They also provided emotional support when the going got tough. This included listening to and supporting flood-affected people who wanted to tell their story and start processing what had happened. Community members also supported elderly people when their at-home support services were cut off for extended periods. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-environment-institute/news/2023/05/01/building-resilience-to-the-mental-health-impacts-of-climate-chan.html">separate research</a> in rural communities affected by drought, fire and flood, we found community-led collective action and planning can foster feelings of belonging and social connection. It can also help communities prepare for the broader consequences of climate change. </p>
<hr>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods-are-a-frightening-portent-of-whats-to-come-under-climate-change-220039">North Queensland's record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what's to come under climate change</a>
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<h2>Community resilience in action</h2>
<p>Many community-led resilience initiatives have emerged in the Northern Rivers region in the wake of successive disasters. They include <a href="https://www.floodhelpnr.com.au/">Resilient Lismore</a>, <a href="https://resilientuki.org/">Resilient Uki</a>, <a href="https://www.wardellcore.community/">Wardell CORE</a>, <a href="https://togetherpottsville.org/">Together Pottsville</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/431100262102216">South Golden Beach Community Resilience Team</a>, and <a href="https://www.madr.org.au/#:%7E:text=Main%20Arm%20Disaster%20Recovery%20Inc.%20is%20a%20community%2Drun%20organisation,to%20keep%20the%20community%20safe.">Main Arm Disaster Recovery</a>. </p>
<p>Examples of the activities flowing from these initiatives include:</p>
<ul>
<li>homegrown produce swaps</li>
<li>community gatherings (such as festivals, barbeques and bushfire awareness talks)</li>
<li>creating or joining formal local community groups</li>
<li>creating community resilience plans</li>
<li>bush regeneration projects</li>
<li>improving emergency communications </li>
<li>creating animal welfare plans for disasters. </li>
</ul>
<p>One <a href="https://www.ccrnetwork.org/">community program in Northern NSW</a> was run by community organisation <a href="https://www.planc.org.au">Plan C</a>. The lead author of this article, Rebecca McNaught, is a board member and former consultant to the organisation and co-author Jean Renouf is the founder and chief executive. The program trained and supported more than 270 Northern Rivers residents across six local government areas. Most (80%) of these people were affected by floods in 2022 through loss of property or incomes, and 30% were directly threatened by bushfires in 2019-20.</p>
<p>The program covered the technical aspects of preparing for disasters, such as learning about the roles of fire, police and state emergency services. It also trained participants in disaster risks associated with bushfire, flood, tsunami and landslips.</p>
<p>Disasters can <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/13/6285">take a toll on mental health</a>. Training people in how to look after themselves and each other in challenging times is important. The program teaches participants about the benefit of sharing stories about individual experiences, and guides participants in how to provide emotional support to someone who has experienced trauma. The program also covers concepts such as active listening, compassionate communication skills and self-care for both the helper and the person receiving support.</p>
<p>Participants are also mentored and connected to a network of community carers and responders who support each other and their communities to both recover from recent floods and fires and build resilience to future disasters.</p>
<p>The connection of community leaders across the Northern Rivers is essential. Through Whatsapp groups, leaders can express solidarity, share skills and resources, and support each other to work through the governance issues involving community organisations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-can-floods-like-those-in-the-northern-rivers-come-in-clusters-180250">Why can floods like those in the Northern Rivers come in clusters?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The benefits are clear</h2>
<p>Communities are important actors in preparing for and recovering from disaster, and should be supported to do this job well. And more robust research into community resilience programs is needed, to better understand what is working, who benefits and why.</p>
<p>Support for this work must come now, before the next disaster, so communities can pull together to withstand the challenges ahead. </p>
<p><em>The authors wish to acknowledge Emma Pittaway and Dr Johanna Nalau for their contributions to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca McNaught is a Research Fellow at the University Centre for Rural Health (University of Sydney) in Lismore. She has received scholarship funding from the Australian Government's Research Training Program Stipend. She is affiliated with the South Golden Beach, New Brighton and Ocean Shores Community Resilience Team. She has also conducted paid and voluntary work for the Northern Rivers not-for-profit registered charity Plan C. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Howard has received funding from Resilience NSW and the new NSW Reconstruction Authority, Infrastructure NSW.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean S. Renouf is a lecturer at Southern Cross University and the CEO of the Northern Rivers not-for-profit registered charity Plan C, which builds community resilience in the Northern Rivers of NSW. Plan C receives funding from Commonwealth and NSW government grants.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Longman has received funding from the NSW Dept of Planning, Industry and Environment and the NSW Reconstruction Authority. </span></em></p>The North Queensland floods remind us of the need to build community resilience to disasters – during the event, in the immediate aftermath and beyond.Rebecca McNaught, Research Fellow, University of SydneyAmanda Howard, Associate Professor, University of SydneyJean S. Renouf, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Southern Cross UniversityJo Longman, Senior Research Fellow, The University Centre for Rural Health, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2175002023-12-19T13:16:33Z2023-12-19T13:16:33Z2023’s extreme storms, heat and wildfires broke records – a scientist explains how global warming fuels climate disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564609/original/file-20231209-21-y5rf6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5772%2C3767&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Extreme downpours filled downtown Montpelier, Vt., with water in July 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flooding-in-downtown-montpelier-vermont-on-tuesday-july-11-news-photo/1526471549">John Tully for The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The year 2023 was marked by extraordinary heat, wildfires and weather disasters. </p>
<p>In the U.S., an <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151632/relentless-heat-in-the-southwest">unprecedented heat wave</a> gripped much of Texas and the Southwest with highs well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 Celsius) for the entire month of July.</p>
<p>Historic rainfall in April <a href="https://theconversation.com/historic-flooding-in-fort-lauderdale-was-a-sign-of-things-to-come-a-look-at-who-is-most-at-risk-and-how-to-prepare-204101">flooded Fort Lauderdale, Florida</a>, with 25 inches of rain in 24 hours. A wave of severe storms in July sent water pouring into <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">cities across Vermont</a> and New York. Another powerful system in December swept up the Atlantic coast with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/18/east-coast-storm-winds-flooding-outages/">hurricane-like storm surge</a> and heavy rainfall. The West Coast started and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4_yCYlSnmo">ended the year</a> with flooding and mudslides from <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">atmospheric rivers</a>, and California was <a href="https://theconversation.com/tropical-storm-hilary-pounds-southern-california-with-heavy-rain-flash-flooding-211869">hit in August by a tropical storm</a> – an extremely rare event there.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">Wildfires ravaged Hawaii</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/louisiana-wildfire-b9d8968c1ce98b009c3ce95fa08a8f40">Louisiana</a> and several other states. And Canada’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-wildfire-season-worst-ever-more-to-come-1.6934284">worst fire season</a> on record <a href="https://theconversation.com/north-americas-summer-of-wildfire-smoke-2023-was-only-the-beginning-210246">sent thick smoke</a> across large parts of North America.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in shorts in flipflops walks among burned out cars. Not much remains of the houses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A person walks through a scene of destruction after a wildfire left almost the entire city of Lahaina, Hawaii, in ashes in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXHawaiiFires/28d53ef953524ec8ba61a0c7ec830881/photo">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Globally, 2023 was the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/record-warm-november-consolidates-2023-warmest-year">warmest year on record</a>, and it wreaked havoc around the world. <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live-205974">El Niño</a> played a role, but <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/">global warming</a> is at the root of the world’s increasing extreme weather.</p>
<p>So, how exactly is global warming linked to fires, storms and other disasters? I am <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shuang-Ye-Wu">an atmospheric scientist</a> who studies the changing climate. Here’s what you need to know.</p>
<h2>Dangerous heat waves and devastating wildfires</h2>
<p>When greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide from vehicles and power plants, accumulate in the atmosphere, they <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/19/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/">act like a thermal blanket</a> that warms the planet. </p>
<p>These gases let in high-energy solar radiation while absorbing outgoing low-energy radiation in the form of heat from the Earth. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/earths-energy-budget-is-out-of-balance-heres-how-thats-warming-the-climate-165244">energy imbalance</a> at the Earth’s surface gradually increases the surface temperature of the land and oceans.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SN5-DnOHQmE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How the greenhouse effect functions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most direct consequence of this warming is more days with abnormally high temperatures, as many countries saw in 2023.</p>
<p>Extreme heat waves hit large areas of North America, Europe and China, breaking many local high temperature records. <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/jpl/nasa-data-shows-fierce-surface-temperatures-during-phoenix-heat-wave/">Phoenix</a> went 30 days with daily high temperatures at <a href="https://apnews.com/article/southwest-extreme-heat-wave-922e965ba3d3e42cbffc2ece12d5c114">110 F (43.3 C) or higher</a> and recorded its highest minimum nighttime temperature, with temperatures on July 19 never falling below 97 F (36.1 C).</p>
<p>Although heat waves result from weather fluctuations, <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change/">global warming has raised the baseline</a>, making heat waves more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps and charts show extreme heat events increasing in many parts of the U.S., both in length of heat wave season and in number of heat waves per year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The number of multi-day extreme heat events has been rising. U.S. Global Change Research Program.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalchange.gov/indicators/heat-waves">U.S. Global Change Research Program</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That heat also fuels wildfires.</p>
<p>Increased evaporation removes more moisture from the ground, drying out soil, grasses and other organic material, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">creates favorable conditions for wildfires</a>. All it takes is a lightning strike or spark from a power line to start a blaze. </p>
<p>Canada <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-report-card-2023-from-wildfires-to-melting-sea-ice-the-warmest-summer-on-record-had-cascading-impacts-across-the-arctic-218872">lost much of its snow cover</a> early in 2023, which allowed the ground to dry and vast fires to burn through the summer. The ground was also extremely dry in Maui in August when the city of <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">Lahaina, Hawaii, caught fire</a> during a windstorm and burned.</p>
<h2>How global warming fuels extreme storms</h2>
<p>As more heat is stored as energy in the atmosphere and oceans, it doesn’t just increase the temperature – it can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">increase the amount of water vapor</a> in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>When that water vapor condenses to liquid and falls as rain, it releases a large amount of energy. This is called <a href="https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2022/08/31/rain-energy-relationship/">latent heat</a>, and it is the main fuel for all storm systems.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two older adults look out a window over a yard turned to mud. The mudline on the house is almost up to the window sill, and the garage's doors have been torn off and are leaning down." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tropical Storm Hilary flooded several areas in Southern California, stranding people for days.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-trapped-in-their-home-peer-out-a-window-while-news-photo/1614093982">Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When temperatures are higher and the atmosphere has more moisture, that additional energy can fuel <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">stronger, longer-lasting storms</a>. This is the main reason for 2023’s record-breaking storms. Nineteen of the 25 weather and climate disasters that caused <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">over US$1 billion in damage</a> each through early December 2023 were severe storms, and two more were flooding that resulted from severe storms.</p>
<p>Tropical storms are similarly fueled by latent heat coming from warm ocean water. That is why they only form when the sea surface temperature reaches a <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/tropical-cyclone-introduction">critical level of around 80 F</a> (27 C).</p>
<p>With <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/">90% of the excess heat</a> from global warming being absorbed by the ocean, there has been a significant increase in the <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">global sea surface temperature</a>, including record-breaking levels in 2023.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line chart shows daily ocean temperature records for every year since 1981, 2023 was far beyond any other year starting in mid-May." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global ocean heat in 2023 went far beyond any other year in over four decades of records.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Higher sea surface temperatures can lead to <a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">stronger hurricanes</a> and <a href="https://www.lsu.edu/mediacenter/news/2023/07/24keimhurricaneseason.rh.php">longer hurricane seasons</a>. They can also lead to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">faster intensification</a> of hurricanes.</p>
<p>Hurricane Otis, which hit Acapulco, Mexico, in October 2023, was a devastating example. It <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-otis-causes-catastrophic-damage-acapulco-mexico">exploded in strength</a>, rapidly intensifying from a tropical storm to a destructive Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours. With little time to evacuate and <a href="https://theconversation.com/acapulco-was-built-to-withstand-earthquakes-but-not-hurricane-otis-destructive-winds-how-building-codes-failed-this-resort-city-217147">buildings not designed to withstand a storm that powerful</a>, more than 50 people died. The hurricane’s intensification was the <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-otis-causes-catastrophic-damage-acapulco-mexico">second-fastest ever recorded</a>, exceeded only by Hurricane Patricia in 2015.</p>
<p><iframe id="FOf4d" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FOf4d/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A recent study found that North Atlantic tropical cyclones’ <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">maximum intensification rates increased 28.7%</a> between the 1971-1990 average and the 2001-2020 average. The number of storms that spun up from a Category 1 storm or weaker to a major hurricane within 36 hours more than doubled.</p>
<p>The Mediterranean also experienced <a href="https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/individual.php?db_date=2023-09-13">a rare tropical-like cyclone</a> in September 2023 that offers a warning of the magnitude of the risks ahead – and a reminder that many communities are unprepared. Storm Daniel became one of the deadliest storms of its kind when it <a href="https://wmo.int/media/news/storm-daniel-leads-extreme-rain-and-floods-mediterranean-heavy-loss-of-life-libya">hit Libya</a>. Its heavy rainfall overwhelmed two dams, causing them to collapse, killing <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-fears-rain-clouds-and-climate-change">thousands of people</a>. The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/05/greece-flooding-daniel-climate-europe/">heat and increased moisture</a> over the Mediterranean made the storm possible.</p>
<h2>Cold snaps have global warming connections, too</h2>
<p>It might seem counterintuitive, but global warming can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">contribute to cold snaps</a> in the U.S. That’s because it alters the general circulation of Earth’s atmosphere.</p>
<p>The Earth’s atmosphere is constantly moving in large-scale circulation patterns in the forms of near-surface wind belts, such as the trade winds, and upper-level jet streams. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">These patterns</a> are caused by the temperature difference between the polar and equatorial regions.</p>
<p>As the Earth warms, the polar regions are heating up <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/warming-polar-regions">more than twice as fast</a> as the equator. This can shift weather patterns, leading to extreme events in unexpected places. Anyone who has experienced a “polar vortex event” knows how it feels when the jet stream dips southward, bringing frigid Arctic air and winter storms, despite the generally warmer winters.</p>
<p>In sum, a warmer world is a more violent world, with the additional heat fueling increasingly more extreme weather events.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US saw a record number of billion-dollar disasters in 2023, even when accounting for inflation. The number of long-running heat waves like the Southwest experienced is also rising.Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200392023-12-18T02:57:15Z2023-12-18T02:57:15ZNorth Queensland’s record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what’s to come under climate change<p>Unprecedented rain brought by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-13/qld-tropical-cyclone-jasper-weather-pattern-warning-bom/103220130">Tropical Cyclone Jasper</a> has triggered widespread flooding in far north Queensland, forcing thousands of people to evacuate. Cairns airport is <a href="https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/weather/cairns-down-to-30-hours-of-water-supply-tinaroo-dam-to-spill/news-story/0a25a5096a1219ae031f02fd6c0ea145">closed</a>, roads are extensively damaged and residents in the city’s northern beaches are cut off by floodwaters.</p>
<p>Some rain gauges in the Barron and Daintree River catchments recorded <a href="https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/12/18/cairns-flooding">more than 2m of rain</a> over recent days, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-18/qld-record-flooding-far-north-monday/103239260">more rain is expected</a>. Water levels in the lower Barron River have <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/far-north-queensland-hit-by-heavy-rain-flash-flooding/news-story/9731b48d321bb7a60ecaf8e26c7d7dd4">smashed the previous record</a> set by devastating floods in <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/catalog/6858263">March 1977</a>. On Monday morning, the Daintree River was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/27/queensland-flooding-emergency-alert-as-daintree-river-beats-118-year-record">more than 2m</a> higher than the previous 118-year-old flood level, recorded in 2019.</p>
<p>The full impacts of the flood are not yet clear. But there’s likely to be significant damage to properties and public infrastructure, and negative effects for industries such as tourism and agriculture. Recovery is likely to take many months.</p>
<p>So let’s take a closer look at what caused this emergency – and what to expect as climate change worsens.</p>
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<h2>A ‘sweet spot’ for torrential rain</h2>
<p>Tropical Cyclone Jasper <a href="https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/99359">crossed the coas</a>t north of Cairns on Wednesday last week, tracking over the remote Indigenous community of Wujal Wujal. Damage from wind and storm surge was minimal, but Jasper still produced more than 800mm of rain across the Daintree and Mossman River catchments.</p>
<p>Late Wednesday, the cyclone was downgraded to a tropical low. It crossed southern Cape York Peninsula and headed towards the Gulf of Carpentaria. By Friday, local tourism agencies and operators <a href="https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/touring-resumes-in-tropical-north-queensland/news-story/77c2b9db23c9bac95599911f363b346e?fbclid=IwAR1kxHaWGj7xfSwmjcoe_ULs0l6Ulc-vhXLqgZYSIQUTQAX5Y156R2FAYyo">announced</a> they were back in business, inviting visitors back to the region.</p>
<p>However, by Saturday morning, a significant rainfall and flood emergency was unfolding across a 360 kilometre swathe from Cooktown to Ingham. So what happened? </p>
<p>The ex-cyclone stalled just inland from the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria, creating a sweet spot for torrential rain known as a “stationary convergence zone”. Incredibly moist tropical winds collided over a narrow zone between Port Douglas and Innisfail. This effect converged with northerly winds from the Gulf of Carpentaria and southeast trade winds from the Coral Sea. Local mountain ranges created extra uplift. All this led to non-stop torrential rain for 48 hours.</p>
<p>As a result, an emergency situation rapidly grew across Cairns and the Barron River delta to its immediate north. </p>
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<h2>Townsville floods: similar but different</h2>
<p>This extreme flood event bears some similarity to that which caused <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-can-make-catastrophic-weather-systems-linger-for-longer-111832">significant damage to Townsville</a> in February 2019. Both were associated with a stationary convergence zone caused by a stalled tropical low located to their northwest. In the case of Townsville, the tropical low did not budge for more than ten days. In that time, Townsville received the equivalent of a year’s average rainfall.</p>
<p>Otherwise, the two events are very different. </p>
<p>Firstly, the Townsville floods occurred during a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/three-phases-of-ENSO.shtml">neutral year</a> – that is, in the absence of the climate drivers La Niña and El Niño. But the current flood event has occurred during an <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">El Niño</a>, when tropical cyclones are much less likely to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/history/climatology/#:%7E:text=Tropical%20cyclones%20in%20the%20Australian,fewer%20during%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20years.">occur in the Australian region</a>, especially in early December.</p>
<p>Secondly, the deep tropical low that caused the 2019 Townsville floods was embedded in an <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=monsoon#:%7E:text=Low%20pressure%20is%20created%2C%20which,or%20an%20%22inactive%22%20phase">active monsoon trough</a>, which sucked in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-can-make-catastrophic-weather-systems-linger-for-longer-111832">very moist equatorial air from Indonesia</a>. But unusually, Cyclone Jasper did not form in such conditions. The monsoon trough is still to appear and form over northern Australia. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<h2>What’s climate change got to do with it?</h2>
<p>As 2023 closes as the <a href="https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/2023-shatters-climate-records-major-impacts">warmest year on record</a>, there is growing global concern about the rise of <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/climate-change-qa/impacts">extreme weather events</a> such as floods, droughts and heatwaves.</p>
<p>The atmosphere and oceans are warming due to increasing emissions of <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/what-is-climate-change/#:%7E:text=Global%20warming%20is%20the%20long,gas%20levels%20in%20Earth%27s%20atmosphere.">greenhouse gases</a>, largely caused by burning fossil fuels. This has led to a greater risk of extreme rainfall and flooding, such as the events we’re seeing now in far north Queensland. </p>
<p>For every 1°C rise in average global temperature, the atmosphere can hold <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/">an extra 7% water vapour</a>. When the right atmospheric “triggers” are in place, this extra water vapour is released as intense rainfall.</p>
<p>It’s too soon to attribute the current extreme rain and flooding to climate change. But as the world continues to warm, such events will become more frequent and severe.</p>
<p>Already, extreme flood events globally are becoming <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">more regular</a> and their magnitude is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once-209214">breaking</a> many long-term rainfall and river flood records. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">As extreme downpours trigger flooding around the world, scientists take a closer look a global warming's role</a>
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<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>Once the immediate crisis in North Queensland has subsided, local and state authorities will need to grapple with how to deal with the “new normal” of extreme weather events. The big question is: are they prepared?</p>
<p>Since the big <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/brochures/barron/barron.shtml">Barron River flood in March 1977</a>, considerable residential and commercial development has been permitted across the river’s floodplain. In many cases, these earlier developments were approved without full consideration of <a href="https://www.cairns.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/489618/Planning-Scheme-Policy-Natural-hazards-Version-2.0.pdf">future floods</a>. Many were also approved before local government planning started taking sea level rise into consideration.</p>
<p>The wider Cairns community will recover from this extreme event and will hopefully take on board any problems identified in the emergency responses. In future, emergency planning must take the effects of climate change more seriously. This includes increases in sea level, and more intense tropical cyclones, storm surges, rainfall and flooding.</p>
<p>As of this month, a climate emergency had been declared in <a href="https://climateemergencydeclaration.org/climate-emergency-declarations-cover-15-million-citizens/">2,351 jurisdictions and local government areas</a> around the world. As a result, many jurisdictions have developed response plans. In Australia, local governments should recognise climate change threats and risks by formally declaring a climate emergency.</p>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220039/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Turton has previously received funding from the Australian government.</span></em></p>Once the immediate crisis in North Queensland has subsided, authorities will need to grapple with how to deal with the ‘new normal’ of extreme weather events. The big question is: are they prepared?Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183042023-12-12T17:30:58Z2023-12-12T17:30:58ZRiver deltas are threatened by more than climate change – leaving hundreds of millions of people at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564467/original/file-20231208-19-8nst7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C976%2C667&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Irrawaddy delta, Myanmar.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/river-delta-irrawady-that-flows-north-1013252395">lavizzara/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Perilously situated between rising sea levels and pressures from upstream lie coastal river deltas and their roughly half a billion inhabitants. These regions have played an important role in societal development since the last ice age, offering flat, fertile lands with abundant freshwater which are ideal for agriculture.</p>
<p>In recent times, coastal river deltas have become hubs of the global shipping trade, giving rise to fast-growing megacities such as Dhaka, Cairo and Shanghai. But these areas are now <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aab3574">under threat</a>. And not all of the blame can be placed on climate change. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023001024">recent research</a> reveals that 49 deltas around the world, including the Nile, Mekong, and Mississippi are facing growing risks under all of the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/">IPCC’s future scenarios</a> for climate change and development. </p>
<p>Our analysis shows that certain risks are more critical to some deltas than others. These risks include land subsidence, increasing population density, intensive agriculture, ineffective governance and a lack of capacity to adapt.</p>
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<img alt="An aerial photograph of Dhaka." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Dhaka was built on the Ganges river delta 400 years ago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dhaka-bangladesh-july-14-2023-birdseye-2331732691">Sk Hasan Ali/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Sinking land</h2>
<p>Sea level rise and its associated impacts, such as salinisation, are a key threat to deltas. But it’s not just the rising sea that creates such risks – deltas themselves <a href="https://theconversation.com/sea-levels-are-rising-fastest-in-big-cities-heres-why-157077">are sinking</a>. Our results show that land subsides as much as three times faster than sea level rise in deltas such as the Mekong in Vietnam and the Krishna and Godavari in India. </p>
<p>All land rises and falls as the Earth’s crust slowly changes shape. But, when land consists of a sediment pile hundreds of metres deep, as in some deltas, the process can happen much faster. The sediment particles compact together under the weight of everything on top (including cities), and when the water, or sometimes oil and gas, that naturally fills the spaces between particles is pumped out, the grains collapse on top of each other.</p>
<p>Land subsidence leads to relative sea level rise (the combination of the sea level rising plus the land sinking). This process can turn croplands salty, cause widespread flooding and, in extreme cases, lead to the loss of entire coastal areas. Research suggests that <a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesias-capital-jakarta-is-sinking-heres-how-to-stop-this-170269">around 25%</a> of the Indonesian capital Jakarta, which is built on low-lying land next to the sea, will be submerged in 2050.</p>
<h2>Population density and crop land use</h2>
<p>The Nile, Ganges and Pearl deltas are also among the most densely populated places in the world. China’s Pearl delta, in particular, is jammed with the megacities of Guangzhou, Dongguan and Foshan, which are together home to over 30 million people. Many deltas will become even more densely populated and urbanised over the coming decades.</p>
<p>Urban development prevents natural river flooding processes from <a href="https://theconversation.com/river-deltas-are-drowning-threatening-hundreds-of-millions-of-people-125088">delivering sediment</a> to deltas and maintaining the land’s elevation above the river channel and sea. This can cause delta land to sink relative to sea level at an even faster pace.</p>
<p>Deltas are also hugely important for food production. Irrigated agriculture occupies almost all of the Red delta in Vietnam, the Po in Italy and the Yangtze in China. If groundwater is pumped from aquifers to irrigate crops, then again these deltas will subside much faster.</p>
<p>Disrupted food production in these places could have dire consequences in the future – and not just for delta inhabitants. Vietnam is the world’s second-largest rice exporter and <a href="https://publicpartnershipdata.azureedge.net/gef/GEFProjectVersions/670110b7-0491-e911-a837-000d3a37557b_CEOEndorsement.pdf">almost all of that rice</a> comes from the Mekong delta.</p>
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<img alt="Aerial view of ripe rice fields in the Mekong delta countryside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Almost all of that rice exported from Vietnam comes from the Mekong delta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-ripe-rice-fields-noon-2216678845">Huy Thoai/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Capacity to adapt</h2>
<p>Delta countries have options when it comes to managing many of the risks they face – they are not simply at the mercy of large global greenhouse gas emitters. However, the readiness, capacity and effectiveness of governments to adapt to risks is low in many deltas. </p>
<p>This is particularly true for the Irrawaddy delta in Myanmar and African deltas including the Congo, Limpopo and Zambezi. The per capita GDP of the countries in these deltas is among the lowest in the world, as are indicators of <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators">government effectiveness</a> and <a href="https://gain.nd.edu/">readiness for adaptation</a>. </p>
<p>International support and cooperation can and should play a supportive role here. But this is no simple task. Developing countries require a substantial amount of funding to implement necessary adaptation measures. In fact, the adaption finance needs of developing countries are now <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023">ten to 18 times</a> as big as international public finance flows (funds that move between countries typically with the aim of supporting development).</p>
<p>And that’s just for adapting to climate change. The array of delta risks revealed by our analysis stretch far beyond the climate and require coordination from local to global scales.</p>
<h2>What’s the solution?</h2>
<p>Solutions must be developed that consider all of these risks. Efforts to limit climate change remain urgent, as does the regulation of groundwater and fossil fuel extraction from deltas. </p>
<p>Cities can be <a href="https://watersensitivecities.org.au/flood-resilience-2/">designed to be more resilient</a> against floods, while agricultural practices can be adapted to cope with risks. This may involve embracing methods such as aquaculture, cultivating salt-tolerant crops, or exploring <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-soils-saltier-forcing-many-farmers-to-find-new-livelihoods-106048">alternative farming approaches</a> that can accommodate flooding and delta sedimentation processes.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-soils-saltier-forcing-many-farmers-to-find-new-livelihoods-106048">Climate change is making soils saltier, forcing many farmers to find new livelihoods</a>
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<p>Engineered solutions, such as sea walls, will be required where other strategies are impossible. But these should not become the default approach. Above all, the development of solutions must be inclusive, involving not only experts but also local people, propelled by urgently needed government action and finance.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murray Scown receives funding from The Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (Formas). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frances Eleanor Dunn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The world’s coastal deltas are home to hundreds of thousands of people – but they’re now under threat.Murray Scown, Associate Senior Lecturer in Geography, Lund UniversityFrances Eleanor Dunn, Assistant professor, Utrecht UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180932023-12-06T19:00:28Z2023-12-06T19:00:28ZDon’t applaud the COP28 climate summit’s loss and damage fund deal just yet – here’s what’s missing<p>Shortly after the opening ceremony of the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/">2023 United Nations climate negotiations</a> in Dubai, delegates of nations around the world rose in a standing ovation to celebrate a long-awaited agreement to launch a loss and damage fund to help vulnerable countries recover from climate-related disasters.</p>
<p>But the applause might not yet be warranted. The deal itself leaves much undecided and has been met with criticism by climate justice advocates and front-line communities.</p>
<p>I teach <a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/profile/shannon-gibson/">global environmental politics and climate justice</a> and have been attending and observing these negotiations for over a decade to follow the demands for just climate solutions, including loss and damage compensation for countries that have done the least to cause climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Several dozen older men in suits walk with al-Jaber, who is one of a few men in traditional Middle Eastern dress. There might be six women in he photo, all, including Ursula von der Leyen, near the back." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">COP28 President Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, center, walks with world leaders and representatives of countries to the climate summit’s opening ceremony. The loss and damage fund was one of the first items approved.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/leaders-and-representatives-of-countries-are-seen-upon-news-photo/1814982687">Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A brief history of loss and damage</h2>
<p>“<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/countries-agree-loss-damage-fund-final-cop27-deal-elusive-2022-11-20/">Breakthrough</a>” was the term often used to describe the decision at 2022’s COP27 climate conference to finally construct a loss and damage fund. Many countries rejoiced at this “<a href="https://www.ciel.org/news/cop27-reaction/">long-delayed</a>” agreement — it came 31 years after Vanuatu, a small archipelago in the Pacific, <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/a/wg2crp08.pdf">first proposed compensation</a> for loss and damage for climate-caused sea level rise in earlier negotiations.</p>
<p>The agreement was only a framework, however. Most of the details were left to a transitional committee that met throughout 2023 to forward recommendations on this new fund to COP28. A <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC2_SynthesisReport.pdf">United Nations report outlined at the committee’s second meeting</a> found that funding from wealthy nations to help poorer countries adapt to the ravages of climate change grew by 65% from 2019 to 2020, to $US49 billion. That’s still far below the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC2_SynthesisReport.pdf">$160 billion to $340 billion</a> the U.N. estimates will be needed annually by 2030. </p>
<p>As the <a href="https://unfccc.int/event/tc4">meetings went on</a>, developing nations, long wary of traditional financial institutions’ <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC2_SynthesisReport.pdf">use of interest-bearing loans</a>, which have left many low-income countries mired in debt, proposed that the fund be independent. Developed nations, however, insisted the fund be hosted under the World Bank and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/tensions-soar-over-new-fund-climate-loss-damage-ahead-cop28-2023-10-23/">held up the recommendations</a> until <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC5_4_Cochairs%20draft%20text_Rev2_4Nov2100.pdf">right before COP28</a>.</p>
<h2>Devil is in the details</h2>
<p>While any deal on funding for climate disaster damages was sure to be portrayed as a historic win, further investigation suggests that it should be welcomed with hesitation and scrutiny.</p>
<p>First, the fund contains no specifics on scale, financial targets or how it will be funded. Instead, the decision merely “invites” developed nations to “take the lead” in providing finance and support and encourages commitments from other parties. It also fails to detail which countries will be eligible to receive funding and vaguely states it would be for “economic and non-economic loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events and slow onset events.”</p>
<p>So far, pledges have been underwhelming.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dozens of tents line a road with floodwater on both sides." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extensive flooding from extreme rain destroyed homes and livelihoods across Pakistan in 2022. Residents set up tents along a stretch of dry land.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-aerial-photograph-taken-on-august-31-2022-shows-flood-news-photo/1242835834?adppopup=true">Fida Hussain/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Calculations of <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/bio/joe-thwaites/cop-28-climate-fund-pledge-tracker">early commitments total just over US$650 million</a>, with Germany and the United Arab Emirates pledging $100 million and the U.K. committing $75 million. The United States, one of the largest climate change contributors, pledged only $17.5 million in comparison. It’s a <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC2_SynthesisReport.pdf">shockingly low starting point</a>.</p>
<p>Also, any notion that this fund represents liability or compensation by developed countries — a major concern for countries with long histories of carbon pollution — was removed entirely. It in fact notes that loss and damage response is based on cooperation instead.</p>
<p><iframe id="WDR9t" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WDR9t/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In a rare win for the developing world, funds were made available — even at subnational and community levels — to all nations, though with yet-undetermined performance indicators.</p>
<p>Additional concern has been raised about the fund’s interim host – the World Bank. In fact, deciding on a host institution was one of the sticking points that nearly derailed earlier talks.</p>
<p>On one side, the United States and other <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/19/biden-climate-fund-fight-un-summit-00121772">developed nations insisted</a> the fund be hosted by the World Bank, which has <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R42463.pdf">always been led by an American</a> and has <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6642815/">historically spread pro-Western policies</a>. Developing countries, however, resisted the World Bank’s involvement based on their <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c9656/c9656.pdf">historical experiences</a> with its lending and structural adjustment programs and noting the bank’s role for years in financing oil and gas exploration as cornerstones of development efforts.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Banga, wearing a turban, and von der Leyen talk while sitting on the edge of a desk in a conference room." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">World Bank President Ajay Banga speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at COP28 in Dubai on Dec. 2, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/world-bank-president-ajay-banga-speaks-with-european-news-photo/1815505102?adppopup=true">Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Following a stalemate and <a href="https://www.twn.my/title2/climate/info.service/2023/cc231101.htm">U.S. attempts to block a consensus</a>, a compromise was reached to host the fund under the World Bank for four years, with guardrails to ensure its independence and impact. After this window, the host structure will be reviewed, leading to either a fully independent fund or continuation under the World Bank.</p>
<p>The concern for critics with this route is that the compromise <a href="https://climatenetwork.org/2023/11/04/reactions-to-loss-and-damage-fund-tc5-meeting/">risks ending up as a permanent hosting situation</a>.</p>
<p>And there are more issues, such as the fund board’s composition, which only allows for national representatives, not civil society representatives such as from Indigenous groups, as developing countries requested. The scope of funding that will be allowed is also still up in the air. In the fund’s vague state, it opens the door for countries, as part of their loss and damage funding commitments, to count private loans, conditional import credits and even funding from the fossil fuel industry at the <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/03/cop28-bulletin-us-gcf-pledge-and-greenwash-oil-and-gas-charter/">same time the industry continues to fuel climate damage</a>.</p>
<h2>What happens next, starting in 2024</h2>
<p>To date, the international climate community does not have a solid track record when it comes to climate finance promises. Each successive fund — from the <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/about">Green Climate Fund</a> that supports green projects in the developing world to the <a href="https://www.adaptation-fund.org/about/">Adaptation Fund</a> that builds climate resilience for the most vulnerable nations — has been woefully undersourced from inception.</p>
<p>In 2021, the entire climate finance ecosystem, from national commitments to private investment, totaled <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Global-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-A-Decade-of-Data.pdf">$850 billion</a>. Experts indicate that <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Global-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-A-Decade-of-Data.pdf">this sum needs to be closer to $4.3 trillion</a>.</p>
<p>That target represents 20% year-over-year growth until the end of this decade – a significant ramp up from recent years.</p>
<p>From 2011 to 2020, total climate finance <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-a-decade-of-data/">grew at just 7% annually</a>. If this trend continues, not only will developing and most vulnerable countries lose faith in this process, but the very need for loss and damage funding will only grow.</p>
<p>The new fund board is mandated to hold its first meeting by Jan. 31, 2024. While this early start time is laudable, droughts will continue killing crops, and storms will continue flooding homes while the new fund engages in another series of meetings to determine who will qualify, how they can apply and how and when funds will actually be dispersed.</p>
<p><em>Researcher Will Erens, a student at the University of Southern California, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218093/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shannon Gibson is affiliated with the Global Justice Ecology Project. </span></em></p>The agreement still leaves many unanswered questions, as well as concerns from vulnerable countries about who will qualify, who pays and who is in charge.Shannon Gibson, Associate Professor of International Relations and Environmental Studies, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170672023-11-26T08:40:39Z2023-11-26T08:40:39ZClimate adaptation funds are not reaching frontline communities: what needs to be done about it<p>Communities around the world face <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate/Africa-2022">increasingly severe</a> and <a href="https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/facts-about-climate-change-in-africa/">frequent impacts</a> from climate change. They are on the “frontlines” of droughts, flooding, desertification and sea level rise. </p>
<p>International climate finance is supposed to help. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, the world’s wealthiest countries pledged <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-glasgow-climate-pact/cop26-outcomes-finance-for-climate-adaptation#Developed-countries-have-pledged-USD-100-billion-a">US$50 billion annually</a> to support climate adaptation among those “particularly vulnerable” to climate change. Climate adaptation is the adjustments humans make to reduce exposure to climate risk. </p>
<p>Eight years later, it is clear that this money is failing to reach vulnerable “frontline communities”, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Malawi, South Sudan and Niger have been among the <a href="https://www.germanwatch.org/sites/germanwatch.org/files/2021-01/cri-2021_table_10_most_affected_countries_in_2019.jpg">top ten most affected countries</a>.</p>
<p>The host country of the upcoming annual United Nations climate negotiations (COP28), the United Arab Emirates, has announced it is focused on “<a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/news/2023/10/cop28-presidency-co-hosts-global-dialogue-in-abu-dhabi-to-focus-on-accelerating-the-energy">fixing climate finance</a>”. </p>
<p>I am a researcher who has studied international climate finance for seven years, both at the annual COPs and through research in <a href="https://www.sei.org/about-sei/press-room/finance-for-climate-adaptation-fails-reach-most-vulnerable/">Madagascar</a>, Mauritius and <a href="https://www.sei.org/projects/equity-in-adaptation-finance/">Namibia</a>. My work explores how to make climate finance more equitable and accessible for vulnerable communities.</p>
<p>It’s my view that the countries that contribute the bulk of the funding for climate adaptation can ensure more money reaches those who need it most. To do that they must first understand why financing isn’t reaching frontline communities. Otherwise money will continue to fall well short of need.</p>
<h2>Why funding isn’t reaching vulnerable communities</h2>
<p>The clearest reason why adaptation finance does not reach these communities is that there is simply not enough of it. Wealthy countries have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/20/rich-countries-not-providing-poor-with-pledged-climate-finance-analysis-says">consistently failed</a> to deliver on the US$50 billion commitment. Every year the gap between needs and support grows. The latest <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023">Adaptation Gap Report</a> estimates that international adaptation finance is 10-18 times below need.</p>
<p>Beyond this shortfall, the current structure of climate finance prevents frontline communities from accessing support. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378022000139">Studies show</a> that the poorest and most vulnerable countries receive less than their fair share of adaptation finance. Support for sub-Saharan African countries is <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-in-which-finance-for-climate-adaptation-in-africa-falls-short-169280">as little as US$5 per person</a> per year. </p>
<p>Two key barriers explain this disconnect. The first is the overlap of climate vulnerability with conflict and political instability. <a href="https://www.icrc.org/sites/default/files/topic/file_plus_list/rain_turns_to_dust_climate_change_conflict.pdf#page=12">Twelve of the 20 countries</a> most vulnerable to climate change are also affected by conflict. Vulnerable countries are also prone to political turmoil, frequent changes in government, and high levels of government corruption.</p>
<p>UN climate funds and other major funders like the World Bank see these countries as less “ready” for adaptation projects. <a href="https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/169654">My research</a> has also found that wealthy countries worry their taxpayers’ money will be lost to corruption.</p>
<p>The second barrier is the finance application process. Proposals for UN climate funds, such as the <a href="https://www.wri.org/research/improving-access-green-climate-fund-how-fund-can-better-support-developing-country">Green Climate Fund</a>, can number hundreds of pages. Application requirements differ from fund to fund. It can take years to develop a proposal and to receive the money.</p>
<h2>Reaching frontline communities</h2>
<p>Even when vulnerable countries receive international support, further barriers can prevent it from reaching frontline communities. Currently, only <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-three-major-gaps-in-climate-adaptation-finance-for-developing-countries/">17% of adaptation finance has reached local levels</a>. My research in <a href="https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/169654">Madagascar and Mauritius</a> found both administrative and political barriers.</p>
<p>National governments consume resources administering grants, often hiring expensive foreign consultants to plan, implement and monitor projects. These costs eat into the money intended for local communities. The focus on large, individual projects tends to concentrate funding in one area, limiting how far benefits can reach.</p>
<p>Funds also require clear evidence of success. Governments might invest in projects they know will succeed rather than take innovative approaches or choose riskier areas. </p>
<p>National governments also make decisions for political reasons. They tend to distribute resources – including money for adaptation – based on what will help them stay in power. They are more likely to fund political supporters than opponents. Communities are often vulnerable precisely because they are politically marginalised.</p>
<p>Finally, studies show that adaptation finance, like development funding, can be lost to corruption and mismanagement. Wealthy and powerful elites can <a href="https://theecologist.org/2021/jan/22/adaptation-funds-increase-climate-vulnerability">“capture” the benefits</a> of internationally financed projects, such as a <a href="https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000050">disproportionate share of rice seeds</a> for a project to build the resilience of agriculture in Madagascar.</p>
<h2>How to fix it</h2>
<p>It is not too late to change how adaptation finance flows to ensure more of it reaches vulnerable communities. The first step is to increase funding for adaptation. Support for adaptation <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023">actually declined in 2021</a>, the most recent year for which we have data. Wealthy countries must meet the commitments they made in the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>The second step is for UN funds, the World Bank and wealthy countries to dedicate a greater proportion of funding to the most vulnerable countries. They must do so regardless of whether these countries are affected by conflict, instability and corruption.</p>
<p>For UN funds this can be accomplished by simplifying and standardising application procedures. Funds can also dedicate more resources to help countries prepare proposals. They should focus less on demanding clear results and more on supporting adaptation that aligns with national and local priorities.</p>
<p>Wealthy countries that contribute to climate funds need to give up some power over the money. They will have to accept imperfect governance and that some funding will be lost to mismanagement and corruption. They have tolerated such trade-offs before, such as during the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/corruption-covid-19-how-to-fight-back/">COVID pandemic</a>, when urgency outweighed concerns over waste and fraud.</p>
<p>But funders should also push for increased transparency around projects. They can encourage scrutiny by local civil society groups, for example, by publishing project information in local languages.</p>
<p>The third step is to experiment. For example, the Green Climate Fund is currently experimenting with <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/project/fp024">“decentralised” adaptation finance</a> in Namibia. Rather than a single large project, the Namibian government broke the funds into 31 small grants for community-based organisations. Together with the University of Namibia, we are <a href="https://www.sei.org/projects/equity-in-adaptation-finance/">examining whether and how</a> this approach helps more funding reach frontline communities. Early results are encouraging.</p>
<p>Fixing climate finance is not simple, but it is urgent. Failing to do so means leaving the most vulnerable alone to face the increasing threats of climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Browne has received funding from the US Department of Education (Fulbright-Hayes Doctoral Dissertation Abroad fellowship), US State Department (Fulbright Fellowship), the University of Michigan, and Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (FORMAS).</span></em></p>Getting climate funds to frontline communities may require rich countries and the UN easing control over how the money is spent.Katherine Browne, Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2126902023-11-02T19:12:25Z2023-11-02T19:12:25ZTaming wild northern rivers could harm marine fisheries and threaten endangered sawfish<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556797/original/file-20231031-23-pl3bb0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C2198%2C1504&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth Image Landsat/Copernicus</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s tropical northern rivers still run wild and free. These relatively pristine areas have so far avoided extensive development. But this might not last. There are <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/national/northern-australia">ongoing scoping studies exploring irrigating agricultural land</a> using water from these rivers.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01238-x">new research</a> in the journal Nature Sustainability shows disturbing the delicate water balance upstream can have major consequences downstream, even hundreds of kilometres away.</p>
<p>Using our latest computer modelling, we found northern water resource development would have substantial effects on prawn, mud crab and barramundi fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria. These are valuable Australian marine fisheries which depend on healthy estuaries. Reducing river flows would also disturb mangrove and seagrass habitats and threaten the iconic endangered largetooth sawfish.</p>
<p>Freshwater flows to the sea play a crucial role, boosting the productivity of marine, estuarine and freshwater systems. These complex interactions must be carefully considered in the assessment of future development plans.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic illustrating how altering river flow influences downstream estuarine and marine species and habitats" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changing the natural river flow regime has consequences for estuarine and marine species and fisheries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Chen in Plaganyi et al (2023) Nature Sustainability</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-we-protect-mangroves-we-protect-our-fisheries-our-towns-and-ourselves-214390">If we protect mangroves, we protect our fisheries, our towns and ourselves</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Rivers are our lifeblood</h2>
<p>Worldwide, few wild running rivers remain. Their future is uncertain given <a href="https://turningthetide.watercommission.org/">growing demand for water</a>. </p>
<p>Climate change is putting extra pressure on rivers as temperatures rise, rainfall patterns shift and <a href="https://theconversation.com/marine-heatwaves-are-getting-hotter-lasting-longer-and-doing-more-damage-95637">extreme events</a> become more frequent. </p>
<p>Rivers are the lifeblood of ecosystems and communities. They connect land, estuaries and the sea. But assessments of river developments <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/epdf/10.1126/science.abj4017">often focus narrowly on local effects</a>. They ignore the fact downstream estuaries and marine systems depend on freshwater flows. Few studies have calculated the costs of upstream catchment developments to downstream estuarine and marine ecosystems and fisheries.</p>
<p>We must avoid the <a href="https://theconversation.com/damming-northern-australia-we-need-to-learn-hard-lessons-from-the-south-53885">mistakes made in southern Australia</a> where <a href="https://theconversation.com/excessive-water-extractions-not-climate-change-are-most-to-blame-for-the-darling-river-drying-192621">too much water has been taken out of the system</a> for growing crops. That means carefully evaluating the design of dams or irrigation schemes, considering when, where and how much water should be taken – and the likely trade-offs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Photo showing many common banana prawns on a trawler. This is one of several species caught by the Northern Prawn Fishery" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yields of common banana prawn vary depending on river flows from multiple catchments.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NPF Industry Pty Ltd, Australian Council of Prawn Fisheries Ltd, Austral Fisheries and Raptis Seafoods</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why should we care about northern rivers?</h2>
<p>Australia’s remote northern rivers are one of the last strongholds for endangered species such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-endangered-species-largetooth-sawfish-24558">largetooth sawfish</a>. These iconic species are born in estuaries before spending their first few years of life upstream in freshwater rivers. </p>
<p>Flows from these rivers also sustain extensive mangrove forests and seagrass beds. Periodic floods <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-30/barramundi-banana-prawns-could-be-threatened-gulf-of-carpentaria/12828280">boost the food supply</a> for many prized marine fisheries such as prawns, barramundi and <a href="https://tinyurl.com/2haudz3t">mud crabs</a>.</p>
<p>The rivers also have <a href="https://indigenousknowledge.unimelb.edu.au/curriculum/resources/indigenous-voices-in-water">cultural significance</a> for Aboriginal people and represent a valuable resource, providing food and supporting livelihoods. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photo of an endangered largetooth sawfish in shallow water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Endangered largetooth sawfish are sensitive to changes in river flows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rich Pillans/CSIRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-el-nino-hit-this-banana-prawn-fishery-hard-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-their-experience-139852">An El Niño hit this banana prawn fishery hard. Here’s what we can learn from their experience</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Using modelling to connect rivers, estuaries and oceans</h2>
<p>We coupled CSIRO’s sophisticated <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/showcase/nawra">river models</a> with our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1467-2979.2012.00488.x">specially tailored ecosystem models</a> to represent how altering river flows may influence the downstream ecology and fishery yields. </p>
<p>We used catch data from fisheries to analyse how past natural changes in flow influenced catch rates. This was combined with extensive previous research on the biology and ecology of each species to model the dynamics of catchment-to-coast systems. We were particularly interested in the natural life cycles of fish and crustaceans in our unique northern wet-dry tropical rivers and estuaries. We then simulated multiple water resource development scenarios to assess and compare various impacts and ways to reduce them. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two column charts showing risk to key populations and fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria from changes in freshwater flows." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=707&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=707&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=707&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We quantified risk to key populations and fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria from changes in freshwater flows due to various hypothetical water resource developments (WRD).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Plagányi et al. (2023) Nature Sustainability</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For <a href="https://tinyurl.com/2haudz3t">mud crabs, we linked river flow</a> and other climate drivers to their life cycle and were able to show how past changes in flow could explain the past variation in crab catch, particularly for rivers in which flow was seasonally variable. We could then use this model to predict how crab catch and abundance might change in the future, depending on how much water is removed from rivers and the method of removal.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial image of an estuary feeding into the Gulf of Carpentaria" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rivers connect land, estuaries and the sea. Large estuaries feed into the Gulf of Carpentaria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-industry-lines-up-to-take-water-from-a-wild-top-end-river-trees-tell-the-story-of-a-much-drier-past-177221">As industry lines up to take water from a wild Top End river, trees tell the story of a much drier past</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Integrated management from catchment to coast</h2>
<p>Our research shows freshwater flows to the sea are crucial for environmentally and economically important species. Any plan to dam or extract freshwater from Australia’s last wild rivers should account for these effects.</p>
<p>Coupling scientific knowledge about marine and freshwater ecosystems with catchment development will improve infrastructure planning and flow management.</p>
<p>This is vital on a dry continent already <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-caused-by-climate-change-has-damaged-45-of-australias-coastal-habitat-120671">challenged by climate change</a>. Every drop counts.</p>
<p><em>The authors wish to acknowledge Annie Jarrett, Chief Executive Officer of NPF Industry Pty Ltd, which represents Northern Prawn Fishery operators, for her contribution to the research.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212690/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Éva Plagányi acknowledges Annie Jarrett, Chief Executive Officer of NPF Industry Pty Ltd, which represents Northern Prawn Fishery operators, for her contribution to the research.
Éva works for CSIRO and receives research funding from several sources, including the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC) and the Australian Fisheries Management Authority (AFMA).
2018-079 Ecological modelling of the impacts of water development in the Gulf of Carpentaria with particular reference to impacts on the NPF was supported by funding from the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation on behalf of the Australian Government</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Blamey works for CSIRO, which receives research funding from several source, including the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC) and the Australian Fisheries Management Authority (AFMA).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michele Burford works for the Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University and receives funding from several sources, including the National Environmental Science Program (NESP).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Kenyon works CSIRO, an organisation that receives research funding from several sources, including the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC) and the Australian Fisheries Management Authority (AFMA).</span></em></p>Any plan to dam or extract water from some of Australia’s last wild rivers must carefully consider the consequences. Prawn, mud crab and barramundi fisheries could suffer in the Gulf of Carpentaria.Éva Plagányi, Senior Principal Research Scientist, CSIROLaura Blamey, Senior Research Scientist, CSIROMichele Burford, Professor - Australian Rivers Institute, and Dean - Research Infrastructure, Griffith UniversityRobert Kenyon, Marine Ecologist, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2161032023-10-20T15:35:00Z2023-10-20T15:35:00ZStorm Babet caused dangerous floods as the ‘dry side’ of Scotland isn’t used to such torrential rain<p>Storm Babet has caused havoc across the UK, with strong winds and <a href="https://x.com/NorthEastTweets/status/1714925845138096334?s=20">rough seas</a> along the east coast, record breaking rainfall and <a href="https://www.gaugemap.co.uk/#!Map/Summary/4240/2432">river levels</a> in Scotland, <a href="https://x.com/RadioTayNews/status/1715241170408714541?s=20">overtopped flood defences</a>, closed roads and railways and sadly at least <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/storm-babet-woman-dies-after-being-swept-into-river-amid-unprecendented-rainfall-in-scotland-12987952">two deaths</a>. The impacts are not over as further rain is expected. </p>
<p>The risk was clear well before the event. Storm Babet was <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/storm-babet-has-been-named">officially named </a> by the UK Met Office on Monday October 16 and a rare <a href="https://x.com/metoffice/status/1714575796663103765?s=20">red weather warning</a> was issued on the Wednesday, 32 hours before the heaviest rain started. </p>
<p>Red weather warnings are <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/seasonal-advice/when-and-why-do-we-issue-warnings#:%7E:text=You%2520should%2520change%2520plans%2520that,from%2520impacts%2520of%2520the%2520weather.">used by the Met Office</a> to communicate extreme weather events that pose a risk to life. This was only the fourth time a red warning had been issued for rainfall.</p>
<p>The Scottish Government’s Resilience Operation was <a href="https://x.com/scotgov/status/1715070290781175896?s=20">activated</a>, <a href="https://x.com/Aberdeenshire/status/1714938335095845325?s=20">flood defences were closed, roads and bridges</a> shut, households evacuated and emergency rest centres opened. These advance warnings undoubtedly kept many people safe.</p>
<h2>How did forecasters know it was coming?</h2>
<p>Meteorologists were tracking the storm using satellites and weather observations. Every day they became more confident about when and where the heaviest rainfall would land.</p>
<p>Storm Babet is an <a href="https://youtu.be/Qe4DgM85U8M?si=p_VAnwtIFTZ3awvy">unusual weather system</a>. Storms that hit the UK in the autumn and winter normally come from the west across the Atlantic, but Babet instead travelled from Portugal, picking up moisture from the Bay of Biscay before being trapped over the UK by a hard-to-budge high pressure system across Scandinavia. This resulted in a prolonged period of wet and windy weather and widespread flooding.</p>
<p>The heaviest rainfall has been over the Angus hills in eastern Scotland, visible in white and black in the map below. As UK weather systems tend to come from the west, dumping their rain over the first hills they encounter, the eastern side of Scotland is usually protected from the worst of the weather. That is why forecasters were particularly concerned. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555001/original/file-20231020-29-nht8x4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite image of UK" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555001/original/file-20231020-29-nht8x4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555001/original/file-20231020-29-nht8x4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555001/original/file-20231020-29-nht8x4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555001/original/file-20231020-29-nht8x4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555001/original/file-20231020-29-nht8x4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1119&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555001/original/file-20231020-29-nht8x4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1119&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555001/original/file-20231020-29-nht8x4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1119&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Babet causes rain across almost the entire British Isles at once. Map shows rainfall from 6pm October 19 to 6am October 20 2023: the white and black colours show the areas of heaviest rainfall.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://starlingsroost.ddns.net/weather/int_radar/map.php">Starling Roost Weather integrated radar (Data: Met Office)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The previous highest 24-hour rainfall in the area was 100mm recorded in November 2022, with 60mm-70mm recorded during Storm Frank in 2015. The rainfall from Storm Babet is already <a href="https://x.com/metoffice/status/1715250142280839235?s=20">over 160mm</a>. Unlike those in western Scotland, rivers in the region are simply not big enough to carry that much rainfall without bursting their banks.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554995/original/file-20231020-15-4dar5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of Scotland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554995/original/file-20231020-15-4dar5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554995/original/file-20231020-15-4dar5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554995/original/file-20231020-15-4dar5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554995/original/file-20231020-15-4dar5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554995/original/file-20231020-15-4dar5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554995/original/file-20231020-15-4dar5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554995/original/file-20231020-15-4dar5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scotland has a rainy side and a dry side.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Met Office</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What hydrologists knew</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.hydrology.org.uk/profiles.php">Hydrologists</a> such as myself study how water moves across and through the landscape, which is key to forecasting floods. Alongside the exceptionally high rainfall, other factors made Angus and south-east Aberdeenshire particularly vulnerable. The hills funnel water into steep rivers that rise quickly and rush towards the sea, so towns and villages along them are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-67053907">no strangers to floods</a>. </p>
<p>In this instance, heavy rain ten days ago meant that the ground was already saturated. Instead of soaking into the ground, any rain that fell during Storm Babet would quickly have flowed into the streams and rivers causing them to overflow.</p>
<p>A storm like this is far beyond anything experienced in living memory of those in the region. Without any first hand knowledge to rely on, computer models help
forecasters identify where the biggest floods will be. With Babet, hydrological models were able to pinpoint the area of concern (the red weather warning) to the rivers draining off the Angus hills. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554998/original/file-20231020-17-v58khe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Annotated map of Scotland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554998/original/file-20231020-17-v58khe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554998/original/file-20231020-17-v58khe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554998/original/file-20231020-17-v58khe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554998/original/file-20231020-17-v58khe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554998/original/file-20231020-17-v58khe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554998/original/file-20231020-17-v58khe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554998/original/file-20231020-17-v58khe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flood forecasting model from the day before the storm peaked. The purple and red colours show the rivers expected to see the highest flows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sepa.org.uk/">Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) / UKCEH</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similar models predicted that the South Esk river would rise above its flood defences in the town of Brechin, meaning flood warnings could be issued and the difficult decision to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67157991">evacuate 400 residents</a> to safety could be made on Thursday afternoon rather than in the middle of the night. It turned out to be good decision, as by Friday morning the river in Brechin was at its highest level on record, and had indeed <a href="https://x.com/RadioTayNews/status/1715241170408714541?s=20">breached its defences</a>.</p>
<h2>Preparing for more extreme events in the future</h2>
<p>This is yet another reminder that the climate is changing and we will see more extreme rainfall, putting more people at risk. The “Clausius-Clapeyron” relationship states that for every 1°C increase in air temperature there is 7% more moisture – meaning that there is more rainfall in a given downpour. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1715236271704900040"}"></div></p>
<p>The relationship between this and flooding is <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.4079">more complex</a> since it also involves interactions with the landscape (How have urban areas expanded? Are there many trees? What sort of farms are there? Are rivers forced into embankments or allowed to meander through floodplains?). </p>
<p>But understanding these interactions is urgent. The <a href="http://theriversouthesk.org/projects/brechin-flood-prevention-scheme/">Brechin flood defences</a> were completed in 2016 and designed to protect the town from floods up to a 1-in-200-year event. No one expected them to be topped less than ten years later.</p>
<p>Despite the devastation evident today, the value of advance warnings for Storm Babet for saving lives, property and infrastructure is clear. To help the UK be better prepared for floods, many hydrologists – including me – are working together through the new <a href="https://www.hydrology.org.uk/Flood_Hydrology_Roadmap.php">UK Flood Hydrology Roadmap</a> to further improve the science and data underlying those warnings.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Linda Speight does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The storm came from an unusual direction and dumped exceptional amounts of rain along the east coast.Linda Speight, Lecturer, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2148292023-10-09T12:21:30Z2023-10-09T12:21:30ZGlacial lake outburst floods in Alaska and the Himalayas show evolving hazards in a warming world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551567/original/file-20231002-28-kdp55d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=153%2C0%2C986%2C661&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Glacial lakes are common in the Himalayas, as this satellite view shows. Some are dammed by glaciers, other by moraines.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakes_of_Bhutan#/media/File:Glacial_lakes,_Bhutan.jpg">NASA </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In August 2023, residents of Juneau, Alaska, <a href="https://alaskapublic.org/2023/08/07/juneaus-worst-glacial-outburst-flood-destroys-homes-and-displaces-residents/">watched as the Mendenhall River</a> swelled to historic levels in a matter of hours. The rushing water <a href="https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=pajk&gage=mnda2">undercut the riverbank</a> and swallowed whole stands of trees and multiple buildings.</p>
<p>The source for the flood was not heavy rainfall – it was a small glacial <a href="https://www.arcgis.com/apps/Cascade/index.html?appid=ad88fd5ccd7848139315f42f49343bb5">lake located in a side valley</a> next to the Mendenhall Glacier. </p>
<p>Glacier-dammed lakes like this are <a href="https://briannarick.github.io/dataviz/AKmapNov152021.html">abundant in Alaska</a>. They form when a side valley loses its ice faster than the main valley, leaving an ice-free basin that can fill with water. These lakes may remain stable for years, but often they reach a tipping point, when high water pressure opens a channel underneath the glacier.</p>
<p>The rapid and catastrophic <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nfiH1IB_Tk">drainage of lake water</a> that follows is called a <a href="https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glacier-processes/glacial-lakes/glacial-lake-outburst-floods/">glacial lake outburst flood</a>, or GLOF for short. The flood waters race downstream over hours or days and often hit unexpectedly.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/opoTgIj97SU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Suicide Basin, a glacier-dammed lake, has flooded the Mendenhall River before. Scientists with the Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center examined the glacial lake after an earlier flood.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Glacial lake outburst floods have destroyed homes, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9lNnnui9bc">infrastructure</a> and human life around the world. They have killed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.001">hundreds of people</a> in Europe and thousands of people in both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.10.007">South America</a> and central Asia. Globally, an <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36033-x">estimated 15 million people</a> live downstream from these lakes, with those in Asia’s high mountains at greatest risk.</p>
<p>Flooding from a glacial lake in the Himalayas on Oct. 5, 2023, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/sikkim-flash-flood-death-toll-increases-to-54-including-8-army-soldiers/articleshow/104246586.cms?from=mdr">left dozens of people dead</a> in India as water swept away bridges, damaged a hydropower station and flooded small towns. Satellite images showed <a href="https://ndma.gov.in/sites/default/files/PDF/PR-Flash-Flood-Sikkim-South%20Lhonak.pdf">that the lake level dropped markedly</a> within hours.</p>
<p><a href="https://akcasc.org/directory/rick/">I study</a> Alaska’s glacial lakes and the hazards that glacier-dammed lakes in particular can create. Our latest research shows how these lakes are changing as global temperatures rise.</p>
<h2>When glaciers hold back lakes</h2>
<p>Some <a href="https://nsidc.org/learn/ask-scientist/what-are-glacial-lakes">glacial lakes</a> are dammed by <a href="https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glacial-geology/glacial-landforms/glacial-depositional-landforms/moraine-types/">moraines</a> – mounds of rock and debris that are left behind as a glacier retreats. Too much pressure from extreme rainfall or an avalanche or landslide into the lake can burst these dams, triggering a devastating flood. Officials say that’s likely what happened when the Himalayas’ <a href="https://youtu.be/cvVrK046-qE?feature=shared">Lhonak Lake flooded towns</a> in India in October 2023.</p>
<p>Glacier-dammed lakes, like Suicide Basin off of Mendenhall Glacier, are instead dammed by the glacier itself. </p>
<p>These glacial lakes tend to repeatedly fill and drain due to a cyclic opening and closing of a drainage path under the ice. The fill-and-drain cycles can create hazards every couple of years or multiple times a year.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two photo shows the same scene 125 years apart. The glacier loss is evident, and the lake between Suicide Glacier and Mendenhall Glacier didn't exist in 1983" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552380/original/file-20231005-19-kutg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552380/original/file-20231005-19-kutg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552380/original/file-20231005-19-kutg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552380/original/file-20231005-19-kutg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552380/original/file-20231005-19-kutg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552380/original/file-20231005-19-kutg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552380/original/file-20231005-19-kutg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Photos from 1893 and 2018 show how much Suicide Glacier has retreated and the glacier-dammed lake it left behind.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/major-flood-outburst-mendenhall-glacier-alaska-not-possible-without">NOAA/Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How glacier lake hazards are changing in Alaska</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41794-6">In a new study</a>, we identified 120 glacier-dammed lakes in Alaska, 106 of which have drained at least once since 1985.</p>
<p>These lakes have collectively drained 1,150 times over 35 years. That is an average of 33 events every year where a lake drains its contents, sending a pulse of water downstream and creating potentially hazardous conditions.</p>
<p>Many of these lakes are in remote locations and often go undetected, while others are much closer to communities, such as Suicide Basin, which is within 5 miles of the state capital and has frequently drained over the past decade.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3nfiH1IB_Tk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Time-lapse video shows how a glacier-dammed lake at Mendenhall Glacier drained over two days in early August 2023.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><iframe id="9UtHE" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9UtHE/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Our study found that, as a whole, glacier-dammed lakes in Alaska have decreased in volume since 1985, while the frequency of outbursts remains unchanged. This suggests a regional decline in the potential hazards from glacier-dammed lakes because less stored water is available, a trend that has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05642-9">documented for glacier-dammed lakes worldwide</a>.</p>
<p>To better understand this trend, imagine a bathtub. The higher the sides of the tub, the more water it can hold. For a glacier-dammed lake, the glacier acts as a side of the bathtub. Warming air temperatures are causing glaciers to melt and thin, lowering the tub walls and therefore accommodating less water. That reduces the total volume of water available for a potential glacial lake outburst flood.</p>
<p>Smaller lakes, however, have had less significant change in area over time. As the August 2023 event clearly illustrated, even small lakes can have significant effects downstream. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bKVdDkfbHUo?wmode=transparent&start=4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Drone video shows some of the damage after a glacial lake drained into the Mendenhall River near Juneau, Alaska.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Alaskans witnessed a new record of destruction in Juneau from the flood. The water reached <a href="https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=pajk&gage=mnda2">nearly 15 feet</a> at the Mendenhall River gauge – 3 feet above its previous record.</p>
<p>In summer 2023 alone, Alaskans saw record or near-record flooding from multiple glacier-dammed lakes near populated areas or infrastructure, such as <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ajk/suicideBasin">Suicide Basin</a>, near Juneau; <a href="https://www.weather.gov/aprfc/gdlData?12">Skilak Glacier-Dammed Lake</a>, which affects the Kenai River; and <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2022/5099/sir20225099.pdf">Snow Lake</a>, which impacts the Snow River. These lakes have remained about the same volume but have produced some larger floods in recent years. </p>
<p>One possible explanation is that with a thinner and weaker ice dam, the water can drain much more quickly, though further research is needed to understand the mechanics. Regardless, it’s a reminder that these lakes and events are unpredictable.</p>
<h2>How will rising temperatures affect these lakes?</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03436-z">Glacier loss in Alaska is accelerating</a> as temperatures rise. Due to the large volume of glaciers and the many intersecting valleys filled with ice in Alaska, there is a high probability that new lakes will develop as side valleys deglaciate, introducing new potential hazards.</p>
<p>Many of these lakes are likely to develop in remote locations, and their presence may only be noticed in satellite images that reveal changes over time.</p>
<p>Given the abundance of glacial lakes and their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36033-x">potential threat to human lives</a>, early warning and monitoring systems are worryingly sparse. Efforts are underway, such as those in the <a href="https://www.icimod.org/floods-glofs-and-early-warning-systems/">Himalayas</a> and <a href="https://www.sagaz.org/">Chile</a>, but further research is needed to develop reliable, low-cost monitoring systems and to improve our understanding of these evolving hazards.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brianna Rick received funding from The National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Alaska has at least 120 glacier-dammed lakes, and almost all have drained at least once since 1985, a new study shows. Small ones have been producing larger floods in recent years.Brianna Rick, Postdoctoral Fellow, Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center, University of Alaska AnchorageLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2114822023-10-05T12:33:47Z2023-10-05T12:33:47ZClimate change is a fiscal disaster for local governments − our study shows how it’s testing communities in Florida<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551841/original/file-20231003-27-j5xxho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C4%2C2977%2C2079&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Crews clear lots of destroyed homes in Fort Myers Beach, Fla., in February 2022, four months after Hurricane Ian.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-aerial-view-construction-crews-clear-lots-of-homes-news-photo/1459509524">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-for-a-us-climate-haven-away-from-disaster-risks-good-luck-finding-one-211990">affecting communities nationwide</a>, but Florida often seems like ground zero. In September 2022, Hurricane Ian <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/us/hurricane-ian-florida-damage.html">devastated southwest Florida</a>, killing at least 156 people and causing <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092022_Ian.pdf">an estimated US$113 billion</a> in damages. Then Hurricane Idalia <a href="https://apnews.com/article/florida-hurricane-idalia-2136985ceea53f5deb600c43aeea1138">shut down the Florida Panhandle</a> in September 2023, augmented by a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/29/science/blue-supermoon.html">blue supermoon</a> that also increased <a href="https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/local/2023/08/31/hurricane-idalia-super-blue-moon-unusual-post-landfall-storm-surge-into-wakulla-county/70726049007/">tidal flooding</a> in southeast Florida. </p>
<p>Communities can adapt to some of these effects, or at least <a href="https://floridaclimateinstitute.org/docs/climatebook/Ch11-Bloetscher.pdf">buy time</a>, by taking steps such as upgrading stormwater systems and raising roads and sidewalks. But climate disasters and sea-level rise also harm local governments financially by increasing costs and undercutting their property tax bases. Local reliance on property taxes also can discourage cities from steering development out of flood zones, which is essential for reducing long-term risks.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2023.2249866">newly published study</a> and supporting <a href="https://cugis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=754b615fa5db4bbea0ed393a2c730163">online StoryMap</a>, we present the first-ever municipal fiscal impact assessment of sea-level rise in Florida and combine it with a statewide survey of coastal planners and managers. We wanted to know how sea-level rise would affect municipal tax revenues and whether coastal planners and managers are accounting for these fiscal impacts.</p>
<p>Our study finds that over half of Florida’s 410 municipalities will be affected by 6.6 feet of sea-level rise. Almost 30% of all local revenues currently generated by these 211 municipalities come from buildings in areas that will become chronically flooded, potentially by the <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html">end of the century</a>. Yet, planners and managers remain largely unaware of how much climate change will affect local fiscal health. Some communities with the most at risk are doing the least to prepare.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A year after Hurricane Ian, destruction is still widespread in Fort Myers Beach, Fla.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Property tax and climate change: A Catch-22</h2>
<p>Property taxes are critically important for municipal governments. Nationwide, they provide <a href="https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/cross-center-initiatives/state-and-local-finance-initiative/projects/state-and-local-backgrounders/property-taxes">30% of local revenues</a>. They are one of the few funding sources that local governments control, and climate change directly threatens them.</p>
<p>As climate change warms ocean waters, it <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-ian-capped-2-weeks-of-extreme-storms-around-the-globe-heres-whats-known-about-how-climate-change-fuels-tropical-cyclones-191583">fuels hurricanes and increases their reach and intensity</a>. Climate change also is <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level#">raising sea levels</a>, which increases coastal flooding during both storms and high tides, often referred to as <a href="https://www.wusf.org/environment/2021-07-15/sunny-day-high-tide-flooding-may-soon-affect-much-of-floridas-coast">sunny-day flooding</a>. Unlike storms, sea-level rise doesn’t recede, so it threatens to permanently inundate coastal lands over time. </p>
<p>Property tax revenues may decline as <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/homesec/R45999.pdf">insurance companies</a> and <a href="https://floodcoalition.org/2020/05/how-could-rising-floodwaters-impact-your-homes-value/">property markets</a> downgrade property values to reflect climate impacts, such as increasing flood risks and wildfires. Already, a growing number of insurance companies have decided to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/03/natural-disaster-climate-insurance/">stop covering some regions and types of weather events</a>, raise premiums and deductibles and drop existing policies as payouts rise in the wake of natural disasters. Growing costs of insuring or repairing homes may further hurt property values and increase home abandonment. </p>
<p>Climate change also makes it more expensive to provide municipal services like water, sewage and road maintenance. For example, high heat buckles roads, rising water tables wash out their substructure, and heavier rains stress stormwater systems. If cities don’t adapt, increasing damage from climate-driven disasters and sea-level rise will create a vicious fiscal cycle, eroding local tax bases and driving up services costs – which in turn leaves less money for adaptation. </p>
<p>However, if cities reduce development in vulnerable areas, their property taxes and other revenues will take a hit. And if they build more seawalls and homes fortified to withstand hurricanes and storms, they will induce more people to live in harm’s way. </p>
<p>In Florida, we found that these theoretical dynamics are already occurring.</p>
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<h2>Florida’s local revenues at risk</h2>
<p>Our analysis shows that sea-level rise could flood properties that have a combined assessed value of $619 billion and currently generate $2.36 billion in annual property taxes. Five million Floridians live in towns where at least 10% of local revenues comes from properties at risk of chronic and permanent flooding. For 64 municipalities, 50% of their revenues come from these risk zones. </p>
<p>Actual fiscal effects would likely be worse after accounting for other lost revenues, rising expenditures and the impacts of multiple climate hazards, such as hotter weather and more intense hurricanes.</p>
<p>These impacts are not evenly distributed. Municipalities with the greatest fiscal risks are geographically and demographically smaller, denser, wealthier and whiter. Lower-risk municipalities tend to be more populous, more diverse, lower-income and have larger land areas. </p>
<p>For instance, the 6,800 residents of the city of Treasure Island in southwest Florida are 95% white and have a median household income of $75,000. The town occupies 3 square miles of land on a barrier island. In our model, its potential lost revenues due to sea-level rise equal its entire municipal revenue stream. </p>
<p>In contrast, St. Petersburg, the nearest big city, has a population of 246,000 residents that is 69% white and a median household income of $53,800. It covers 72 square miles, with only 12% of its property tax revenues at risk from flooding.</p>
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<h2>Heads in the sand</h2>
<p>We see our findings as a wake-up call for state and local governments. Without urgent action to adapt to climate change, dozens of municipalities could end up fiscally underwater. </p>
<p>Instead, many Florida cities are pursuing continued growth through infrastructure expansion. Even after devastating events like Hurricane Ian, administrative boundaries, service obligations and budgetary responsibilities make it hard for municipal leaders to make room for water or retreat onto higher ground. </p>
<p>Treasure Island, for instance, is <a href="https://www.tbnweekly.com/beach_beacon/article_348defb2-0934-11e9-a4a4-eb7ed7651e85.html">allocating property taxes</a> to upgrade the town’s causeway bridge. This protects against modest climate impacts in the short term but will eventually be overwhelmed by bigger storm surges, rising water tables and <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level#">accelerating sea-level rise</a>. </p>
<p>These dynamics can worsen <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-miami-keeps-building-rising-seas-deepen-its-social-divide">displacement and gentrification</a>. In Miami, developers are already buying and consolidating properties in longtime Black and lower-income neighborhoods like <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/33d28b4ae86840b5b27ea8ba4b4bcc4d">Little Haiti</a>, <a href="https://nextcity.org/features/miami-underdeck-overtown-black-community-gentrification-displacement">Overtown</a> and <a href="https://www.equaltimes.org/welcome-to-miami-speculation?lang=en">Liberty City</a> that are slightly more elevated than areas along the shore.</p>
<p>If this pattern continues, we expect that inland and upland areas of cities like St. Petersburg, Tampa and Miami will attract more resilient, high-end development, while displaced low-income and minority residents are forced to move either out of the region or to coastal zones with declining resources. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Wealthy people in Miami are moving inland to avoid flooding, displacing lower-income residents and people of color.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Charting a different future</h2>
<p>We don’t see this outcome as inevitable, in Florida or elsewhere. There are ways for municipalities to manage and govern land that promote fiscally sound, equitable and sustainable ways of adapting to climate change. The key is recognizing and addressing the property tax Catch-22. </p>
<p>As a first step, governments could assess how climate change will affect their fiscal health. Second, state governments could enact legislation that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesrealestatecouncil/2018/09/14/the-case-against-property-taxes-and-two-alternative-taxes-that-work/">expands local revenue sources</a>, such as sales or consumption taxes, vacancy taxes, stormwater impact fees and resilience bonds or fees.</p>
<p>Regional sharing of land and taxes is another way for small, cash-strapped communities to reduce development in vulnerable places while maintaining services for their residents. For example, New Hampshire passed a bill in 2019 to <a href="https://legiscan.com/NH/text/SB285/2019">allow coastal municipalities to merge</a> in response to sea-level rise. </p>
<p>Finally, state governments could pass legislation to help low-income neighborhoods gain more control over land and housing. Tested tools include <a href="https://nextcity.org/urbanist-news/a-lifeline-for-preserving-limited-equity-co-ops-in-new-york">limited equity cooperatives</a>, where residents buy an affordable share in a development and later resell at below-market prices to maintain affordability; <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/08/realestate/community-land-trusts-gentrification.html">community land trusts</a>, where a nonprofit buys and holds land title to keep land costs down; and <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/04/08/residents-buying-mobile-home-parks-preserving-affordable-housing-option-low-income-americans/">resident-owned mobile home parks</a>, where residents jointly buy the land. All of these strategies help communities keep housing affordable and avoid displacement. </p>
<p>Shifting away from a business-as-usual development model won’t be easy. But our study shows that Florida, with its flat topography and thousands of miles of coastline, faces cascading fiscal impacts if it continues down its current path.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211482/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Linda Shi receives funding from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tisha Joseph Holmes received funding from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Center for Disease Control and Provention. She is affiliated with REfire Culinary. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Butler received funding from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection in support of this research. </span></em></p>A new study of Florida’s fiscal vulnerability to climate change finds that flooding directly threatens many local tax bases.Linda Shi, Assistant Professor of City and Regional Planning, Cornell UniversityTisha Joseph Holmes, Associate Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, Florida State UniversityWilliam Butler, Associate Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, Florida State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2146192023-10-04T16:40:14Z2023-10-04T16:40:14ZUnderstanding the dynamics of snow cover in forests can help us predict flood risks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551050/original/file-20230926-17-3adew2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C5%2C3914%2C2964&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A better understanding of the interactions between snow cover and forest will help improve hydrological models and thus ensure public protection against flooding.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Benjamin Bouchard)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For more than six months a year, Quebec’s boreal forest is covered in a thick blanket of snow. While this is essential for the balance of our ecosystems, for the people living downstream from forested watersheds the snow can be like a sword of Damocles hanging over their heads. </p>
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<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
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<p>The major floods of spring 2023 in the Charlevoix region show why the snow cover poses a risk. </p>
<p>Last winter, the Rivière du Gouffre watershed, of which <a href="https://charlevoixmontmorency.ca/l-obv-cm/territoire/">nearly 75 per cent is covered by forests</a>, accumulated a large amount of snow. The melting of this snow cover combined with an extremely intense rainfall event helped push the river out of its bed, causing <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/flood-baie-saint-paul-residents-cleaning-1.6829490">unprecedented flooding in Baie-Saint-Paul</a>.</p>
<p>As part of my PhD at Université Laval, in collaboration with <a href="https://sentinellenord.ulaval.ca/en/home">Sentinel North</a>, I am looking at the impact of snow cover properties on watershed hydrology in the boreal forest.</p>
<h2>Rain as an energy carrier</h2>
<p>As we saw in the spring of 2023, rain events combined with snow cover can lead to a sudden rise in river water levels. One reason for this is that rainwater transfers heat to the snow. </p>
<p>A heat exchange occurs between rain and snow when their temperatures differ. The snow warms up, and the rain cools down. Once the snow has reached a temperature of 0°C, any additional heat from the rain causes melting.</p>
<p>So, a snow cover of near 0 C, common in spring, and heavy rainfall at high temperatures, together create conditions where both meltwater and rainwater contribute to a higher flow of water. This increases the likelihood of flooding. However, this will only happen if the water produced can flow easily through the snow cover. </p>
<p>On the other hand, a cold snow cover combined with low-temperature rainfall can lead to rainwater freezing in the snow. This water will then remain trapped in the snow and won’t present a flooding risk. </p>
<p>After all, heat exchange goes both ways!</p>
<h2>The snow cover, a complexly structured environment</h2>
<p>The snow cover is a porous medium that does not have uniform physical properties. Rather, it is a stack of snow layers that represent the history of the winter’s meteorological events. Rainwater must percolate through all the snow layers to reach the ground, and eventually, the watercourse.</p>
<p>Some layers, such as fine-grained layers and layers of ice, limit the flow of water through the snow. In contrast, coarse-grained layers, which have larger pores, facilitate the flow of water. As a result, they enable rainwater and meltwater to reach the ground quickly.</p>
<h2>The role of the forest</h2>
<p>The structure of the snow cover influences the risk of flooding. But what effect do forests have on snow structure? </p>
<p>By intercepting part of the precipitation in its solid form (snow), trees limit the accumulation of snow on the ground. That, in turn, contributes to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/JC088iC09p05475">growth of snow grains and pores on the ground</a> through upward water vapour flux. In addition, the discharge of snow intercepted by trees in solid or liquid form <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2019.01.052">increases the heterogeneity of the snow cover</a>. These processes promote rapid water flow in the snow cover that forms beneath the trees.</p>
<h2>The same everywhere?</h2>
<p>Forest cover is far from uniform in the boreal forest. It’s more akin to sparse vegetation with treeless zones known as gaps. In these gaps, the structure of the snow cover is very different from that under the trees.</p>
<p>The greater accumulation of snow in the gaps favours the compaction of snow layers and the formation of fine grains. In addition, daily cycles of surface refreezing lead to the formation of low-permeability ice layers. </p>
<p>The snow cover in the gaps is, therefore, less favourable to the percolation of water to the ground <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14681">than that found under the trees</a>.</p>
<p>But does this mean that the presence of gaps reduces the risk of flooding? Not quite.</p>
<h2>Snow melts faster in gaps</h2>
<p>The structure of the snow cover is just one of the factors that influences flooding. Ground that is frozen, which limits infiltration, as well as rapid snowmelt also increase the risk of flooding. </p>
<p>In Québec’s boreal forests, although the ground does not freeze in the gaps between trees due to the insulating nature of the snow cover, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-191">melt rate is much higher</a> because solar radiation is stronger than it is under the trees, particularly in spring. </p>
<p>Although more snow would accumulate in the gaps, it takes less time to melt and reaches the watercourse more quickly than the snow under the trees. That increases waterflow and, as a consequence, the risk of flooding.</p>
<p>The combination of thicker snow cover in the gaps and more permeable snow layers under the trees contributed to the Rivière du Gouffre flooding Baie-Saint-Paul during the extreme rainfall of spring 2023.</p>
<p>Rainfall events like this <a href="https://www.ouranos.ca/en/precipitations-projected-changes">will continue to increase in frequency as global temperatures warm</a>. However, increased knowledge of the interactions between snow cover and forest will help improve hydrological models and ensure better public protection against flooding.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214619/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Bouchard has received funding from the Fonds de recherche Nature et technologie du Québec (FRQNT), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and Sentinel North. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Nadeau has received funding from Environment and Climate Change Canada, as well as from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Florent Domine has received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p>A better understanding of the interactions between the boreal forest and snow will make it possible to improve hydrological models and ensure optimal management of the resource.Benjamin Bouchard, Étudiant-chercheur au doctorat en génie des eaux, Université LavalDaniel Nadeau, Professeur titulaire en hydrologie des régions froides, Université LavalFlorent Domine, Professeur, chimie, Université LavalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2129792023-09-26T13:44:03Z2023-09-26T13:44:03ZEnvironmental disasters and climate change force people to cross borders, but they’re not recognised as refugees – they should be<p>As our planet warms, we’re experiencing <a href="https://www.c2es.org/content/extreme-weather-and-climate-change/">more frequent</a> and severe weather events, rising sea levels, prolonged droughts and altered ecosystems. These environmental shifts directly affect people’s livelihoods by destroying crops and depleting water sources. They make once-inhabitable areas uninhabitable. </p>
<p>In response to these challenges, many individuals and communities have no choice but to abandon their homes and seek safety elsewhere. The vast majority will remain within their country borders – it’s predicted that by 2050 up to <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/10/27/climate-change-could-further-impact-africa-s-recovery-pushing-86-million-africans-to-migrate-within-their-own-countries">86 million Africans</a> will migrate within their own countries due to weather shocks. But some will cross borders, triggering the need for international protection. </p>
<p>The challenge, however, is that people crossing borders due to weather don’t qualify as refugees under key laws and conventions. This displacement could be due to sudden-onset events, such as volcanic eruptions or flooding, which may pose an immediate threat to life. Or it could be due to slow-onset events, such as desertification or rising sea levels, which may eventually make life untenable. </p>
<p>It’s hard to say exactly how many people this affects because it’s a <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/06/lets-talk-about-climate-migrants-not-climate-refugees/">complex topic</a>. However, we do know that cross-border migration affects <a href="https://www.savethechildren.net/news/drought-and-conflict-drive-highest-number-somalis-kenya-refugee-camps-decade">tens of thousands of people</a> every year. For instance <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/news/horn-africa-drought-enters-sixth-failed-rainy-season-unhcr-calls-urgent-assistance">drought conditions</a> in 2022, exacerbated by political insecurity and instability, forced at least 180,000 refugees from Somalia and South Sudan into parts of Kenya and Ethiopia.</p>
<p>It’s <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/367965451_African_Shifts_The_Africa_Climate_Mobility_Report_Addressing_Climate-Forced_Migration_Displacement#page=85">predicted</a> that the number of people displaced due to weather shifts or disasters will reach as many as 1.2 million people by 2050. This figure will depend on how changes in the climate unfold. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-force-up-to-113m-people-to-relocate-within-africa-by-2050-new-report-193633">Climate change will force up to 113m people to relocate within Africa by 2050 - new report</a>
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<p>Without refugee status, those forced to move across borders due to weather events may not receive valuable support. Depending on the individual country, support can include the right to live and work, access to health or education services and the right to move freely. </p>
<p>I study the legal protection of asylum seekers, refugees, migrants and internally displaced people in Africa. I recommend that international laws and conventions be amended to explicitly include people forced by weather shocks to move across borders. They need full refugee protection. </p>
<h2>Lack of protection</h2>
<p>A variety of laws ensure refugees’ basic human rights are protected. The core of “refugee law” is constituted by the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/about-unhcr/who-we-are/1951-refugee-convention">1951 Geneva Refugee Convention</a> – a United Nations multilateral treaty that defines who a refugee is – and its 1967 <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/protocol-relating-status-refugees">New York Protocol</a>. Refugees in Africa are also protected by the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/media/oau-convention-governing-specific-aspects-refugee-problems-africa-adopted-assembly-heads">1969 Organisation of African Unity (OAU) Convention</a>. </p>
<p>These laws provide them with a safe haven, access to fair asylum procedures and protection from discrimination. The domestic laws of many African countries incorporate these international principles. This offers legal safeguards and support to refugees, helping them seek safety and rebuild their lives.</p>
<p>As I mention in a <a href="https://www.academia.edu/79451051/Climate_induced_displacement_in_the_Sahel_A_question_of_classification">recent study</a>, the challenge with the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/afr/publications/legal/5ddfcdc47/handbook-procedures-criteria-determining-refugee-status-under-1951-convention.html">Refugee Convention</a> is that it rules out people who are “victims of famine or natural disaster” unless they also have a “well‑founded fear of persecution”. For instance, people fleeing Ethiopia between 1983 and 1985 due to drought would be considered refugees because they also feared persecution by the Mengistu Haile Mariam-led military dictatorship (Derg) which was <a href="https://www.hrw.org/reports/Ethiopia919.pdf">deliberately restricting food supplies</a> in parts of the country. </p>
<p>The United Nations agency mandated to aid and protect refugees, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugee (UNHCR), follows the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/afr/publications/legal/5ddfcdc47/handbook-procedures-criteria-determining-refugee-status-under-1951-convention.html">definition</a> provided by the Refugee Convention. As does the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/about-unhcr/who-we-are/global-compact-refugees">Global Compact on Refugees</a>, a UN-driven blueprint for governments, international organisations and other stakeholders.</p>
<p>This means that people forcibly displaced only by environmental disasters are not entitled to refugee status, although deserving of temporary protection. </p>
<p>Within Africa, there’s a debate about whether the 1969 <a href="https://au.int/en/treaties/oau-convention-governing-specific-aspects-refugee-problems-africa">Organisation for the African Unity (OAU) Refugee Convention</a> originally included people displaced by natural disasters in its definition of “refugees”. Some practitioners believe it does, though this <a href="https://international-review.icrc.org/sites/default/files/reviews-pdf/2022-05/climate-induced-displacement-in-the-sahel-classification-918.pdf">stance</a> appears limited to human-made disasters.</p>
<p>When it comes to domestic laws, as of now, there’s no African country that recognises people fleeing natural disasters as a “refugee”. </p>
<p>There is, however, some movement. People fleeing environmental disasters are increasingly being recognised by international organisations. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/news/press-releases/unhcr-commits-climate-action-africa-protect-displaced-populations-and-foster">UNHCR</a> recognises them as a vulnerable category of persons to be protected. It has <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/news/press-releases/unhcr-commits-climate-action-africa-protect-displaced-populations-and-foster">raised awareness</a> of climate change as a driver of displacement and the need to address protection for people displaced in the context of disasters. UNHCR is also <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/5975e6cf7.pdf">working on</a> addressing legal gaps related to cross-border disaster-displacement. </p>
<p>But there’s still more to be done.</p>
<h2>What needs to change</h2>
<p>People displaced by adverse weather developments should be given more than temporary protection. This will require changes to international regulations and national laws. </p>
<p>For instance, a protocol regarding climate-induced displacement should be added to the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/media/oau-convention-governing-specific-aspects-refugee-problems-africa-adopted-assembly-heads">1969 OAU convention</a> so that displaced people who cross international borders are legally covered.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212979/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cristiano d'Orsi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Without refugee status people aren’t able to receive valuable support, like the right to live and work in a country.Cristiano d'Orsi, Lecturer and Senior Research Fellow at the South African Research Chair in International Law (SARCIL), University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.