tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/floodplains-8873/articlesFloodplains – The Conversation2023-08-22T09:19:16Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2120022023-08-22T09:19:16Z2023-08-22T09:19:16ZMurray-Darling Basin Plan to be extended under a new agreement, without Victoria – but an uphill battle lies ahead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543904/original/file-20230822-17-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C33%2C7326%2C4869&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Federal Minister for Water Tanya Plibersek today <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/plibersek/media-releases/historic-deal-struck-guarantee-future-murray-darling-basin">announced a new agreement</a> to restore Australia’s largest and most important river basin. It comes just months before the original Murray-Darling Basin Plan was to be completed. </p>
<p>This was a plan to benefit people and nature, to protect river communities, industries and the environment against future droughts. It was forged in response to the gruelling <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/river-murray/dry-conditions/millennium-drought">Millennium Drought</a>, when the Murray River stopped flowing to the sea. </p>
<p>It was clear too much water was being taken out of the system and everyone would suffer if Basin states could not find a better way to share. But it has been much harder to strike the right balance than first hoped. </p>
<p>When it became clear in July it was <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/news-and-events/newsroom/authority-advice-basin-plan-implementation">no longer possible</a> to deliver the plan in full and on time, the federal government started hatching a new plan. </p>
<p>Now Plibersek is offering “more time, more money, more options, and more accountability”, acutely aware that “the next drought is just around the corner”. But she faces an uphill battle, with Victoria still holding out. Further, the legislation is yet to go before parliament and needs to be passed before Christmas. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-less-than-a-year-to-go-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-is-in-a-dreadful-mess-these-5-steps-are-needed-to-fix-it-209328">With less than a year to go, the Murray-Darling Basin Plan is in a dreadful mess. These 5 steps are needed to fix it</a>
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<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>Management of the Basin rivers today is a far cry from the hope engendered in 2007 when Prime Minister <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22media%2Fpressrel%2FK81M6%22;src1=sm1">John Howard announced</a> the National Plan for Water Security, at the peak of the Millenium Drought.</p>
<p>He proposed reforms to Basin water governance, saying “nothing can change the basic facts of our continent” and calling for action to end “the tyranny of incrementalism and the lowest common denominator” governance. These “once and for all” reforms were intended to prevent “economic and environmental decline”. </p>
<p>But the Basin states were loathe to hand their powers over to the Commonwealth. Victoria and New South Wales resisted reallocating water from agriculture. Amid navigating the complex science and trade offs, it was another five years before the controversial Basin Plan was adopted in 2012.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the plan then languished over the past decade as the federal, New South Wales and Victorian governments <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020208">frustrated measures</a> originally agreed to return water from agricultural use to the environment.</p>
<p>This week’s announcement represents the federal government taking firm steps to implement the first part of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/media-centre/labors-plan-to-future-proof-australias-water-resources-butler">five-point election commitment</a> for the Basin.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="darling river" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A plan for the water: the politics of the Murray-Darling Basin have long been fraught.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Now the federal government has reached agreements with most states who share management of the river system – Queensland, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and South Australia – but not Victoria. The Victorian government appears to be rivalling the National Party in its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-04-20/victorian-government-hold-murray-darling-basin-projects/102247494">opposition</a> to buying more water entitlements from irrigators (water buybacks). </p>
<p>The federal government is looking to purchase water entitlements from willing sellers. This is because past investments in water efficiency projects have proven to be too slow, very expensive and have had unexpected outcomes for agricultural industries and the rivers.</p>
<p>Victoria continues to argue its irrigation-based industries would be harmed by more water buybacks, and that the state has borne an unfair share of the burden compared to New South Wales. The Victorian government has knowledgeable staff and is well resourced, and resistance could be fierce.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/water-buybacks-are-back-on-the-table-in-the-murray-darling-basin-heres-a-refresher-on-how-they-work-200529">Water buybacks are back on the table in the Murray-Darling Basin. Here's a refresher on how they work</a>
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<p>Plibersek appears to be counting on her alliance with other states enabling required amendments to the Water Act and Basin Plan to be passed before Christmas. Given almost certain rejection by the Opposition of more water reallocation, she will require the support of cross bench Senators who may demand stronger environmental measures. The Greens have already <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/water-buybacks-scare-off-victoria-from-basin-agreement/news-story/882a81acfbb21dbc8631a5a031b6ab28">criticised</a> the minister’s announcement as a move that “kicks the can down the road”, but buying such a large volume of water will take years.</p>
<p>If the legislation is not amended, and existing deadlines remain, the federal government may be forced into <a href="https://www.npc.org.au/speaker/2022/1090-andrew-mcconville">recovering even more water</a>. In particular, they would need to respond to the states’ failure to deliver on projects that are supposed to conserve wetland with less water by building water supply infrastructure.</p>
<h2>A welcome development</h2>
<p>The new agreement is welcome in doubling down on the original plan to recover 3,200 billion litres a year of additional water essential to maintain the health of the rivers and the people who rely on them. The federal government has focused on recovering 450 billion litres a year of water within this target that was agreed with the former South Australian premier. Premier Jay Weatherill drew on scientific advice to insist the minimum volume of water was recovered that is needed to keep the lower River Murray floodplain, lower lakes and Coorong healthy.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the past decade of stalling by the federal, NSW and Victorian governments means the 2023-24 Basin Plan deadlines must be extended by two to three years if key projects are to be completed.</p>
<p>Much greater public assurance with transparency and accountability measures is needed if the new targets are to be met. The federal government needs to find more effective carrots and sticks to engender state compliance. This time it would be wise to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14486563.2014.999725">withhold payments to the states</a> until they deliver the promised action.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="murray darling rivers meeting" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The muddy waters of the Darling meet the clearer Murray at Wentworth in New South Wales.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>The federal government’s intention to redouble efforts to “<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-less-than-a-year-to-go-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-is-in-a-dreadful-mess-these-5-steps-are-needed-to-fix-it-209328">relax constraints</a>” and enable more water to flow to where it’s most needed to conserve flora and fauna is crucial. This is essential to get the most benefits for freshwater ecosystems by allowing environmental water to spill out of river channels onto floodplain wetlands. Despite a recent flurry of activity, NSW and Victoria have not delivered promised agreements with river side land owners to enable this watering.</p>
<p>The one disappointing aspect of the agreement is the proposal to allow more water offset projects (under the <a href="https://getinvolved.mdba.gov.au/SDLAM">Sustainable Diversion Limit Adjustment Mechanism</a>). These ecologically dubious projects have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-plans-for-engineered-wetlands-on-the-murray-are-environmentally-dubious-heres-a-better-option-204116">problematic</a>, with at least one being abandoned and many delayed. It is inconceivable that new projects could be identified and delivered by 2026.</p>
<p>But the new agreement only deals with the most immediate problems in implementing the Basin Plan. The Plan is due to be revised in 2026. The current measures do not deal with <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-less-than-a-year-to-go-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-is-in-a-dreadful-mess-these-5-steps-are-needed-to-fix-it-209328">two major issues</a>. First, ways need to be found to restore the rights of Indigenous nations to own and manage water. Currently they hold only 0.2% of issued entitlements. Second, a new Plan is needed to manage the project loss of a lot of water to climate and other environmental change.</p>
<p>The federal government’s agreement with most states (but not Victoria) is a really welcome initiative to get Basin Plan implementation back on track. However, even harder decisions await.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-plans-for-engineered-wetlands-on-the-murray-are-environmentally-dubious-heres-a-better-option-204116">Victoria’s plans for engineered wetlands on the Murray are environmentally dubious. Here’s a better option</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212002/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Pittock is a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists. Jamie holds roles in a number of non-government environmental organisations. He is also the independent Chair of the ACT Natural Resources Management Advisory Committee. </span></em></p>Knowing the ‘next drought is just around the corner’, Australia’s Water Minister Tanya Plibersek is striking a new agreement to return water and health to the Murray-Darling Basin.Jamie Pittock, Professor, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093282023-07-17T20:03:25Z2023-07-17T20:03:25ZWith less than a year to go, the Murray-Darling Basin Plan is in a dreadful mess. These 5 steps are needed to fix it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537445/original/file-20230714-15-hsnhzh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C2591%2C1724&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Murray Darling Basin Plan is an historic deal between state and federal governments to save Australia’s most important river system. The A$13 billion plan, inked over a decade ago, was supposed to rein in the water extracted by farmers and communities, and make sure the environment got the water it needed. </p>
<p>But now, less than a year out from the plan’s deadline, it’s in a dreadful mess. Projects have not been delivered. Governments cannot agree on who gets the water, or how. All the while, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780128181522000127">water</a> in the Murray-Darling Basin will become scarcer as climate change worsens.</p>
<p>The Albanese government was elected on a promise to <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/media-centre/labors-plan-to-future-proof-australias-water-resources-butler">uphold</a> the Murray-Darling Basin Plan.
But earlier this month, Environment and Water Minister Tanya Plibersek <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-07-05/murray-darling-basin-plan-targets-advice-request-tanya-plibersek/102559824">conceded</a> the plan is “too far behind” and needs a “course correction”.</p>
<p>I have studied and promoted sustainability measures in the Murray-Darling Basin for 35 years. Here, I outline the five steps needed now to ensure the health of the river system and the people who depend on it. </p>
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<img alt="man overlooks river bend" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Water in the Murray Darling Basin will become scarcer as climate change worsens.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>A refresher: what is the Murray-Darling Basin Plan?</h2>
<p>The Murray-Darling Basin covers <a href="https://www.water.vic.gov.au/murray-darling-basin-plan/">about a seventh</a> of the Australian land mass: most of New South Wales, parts of Queensland, South Australia and Victoria, and all of the Australian Capital Territory. It includes the Murray River and Darling River/Baarka and their tributaries. </p>
<p>These lands and waters are the traditional lands of <a href="https://www.indigenous.gov.au/news-and-media/announcements/new-indigenous-rangers-murray-darling-basin">more than 40 Indigenous nations</a>. Around <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/MF03075">5% of the basin</a> consists of floodplain forests, lakes, rivers and other wetland habitats. Vast amounts of water are extracted from the rivers to supply around <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/why-murray-darling-basin-matters">three million Australians</a>, including irrigating farms. </p>
<p>The Murray-Darling Basin Plan <a href="https://www.water.vic.gov.au/murray-darling-basin-plan/:%7E:text=The%20Basin%20Plan%20was%20signed,needs%20such%20as%20drinking%20water.">became law</a> in 2012, under the Labor government. It is due to be fully implemented and audited by the end of June 2024.</p>
<p>The plan limits the amount of water extracted from the basin. It aims to both improve the condition of freshwater ecosystems and maintain the social and economic benefits of irrigated agriculture.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1569277751542300680"}"></div></p>
<p>Under the plan, <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/river-murray/basin-plan/whats-in-the-basin-plan/history-of-the-basin-plan#:%7E:text=The%20Australian%20Government%20subsequently%20committed,river%20communities%20and%20environmental%20works.">3,200 billion litres a year</a> would be returned to rivers – about 14% of <a href="https://doi.org/10.4225/08/585ac631207f7">total surface water</a> in the basin. </p>
<p>The water was largely to be recovered by buying back water entitlements from farmers. Some <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/river-murray/basin-plan/whats-in-the-basin-plan/history-of-the-basin-plan">450 billion litres</a> would be retrieved through water efficiency projects.</p>
<p>The plan has twice been amended to reduce the amount of water taken from farmers. The first change, made on <a href="https://wentworthgroup.org/2018/01/advice-on-basin-plan-amendment-instrument-2017/">questionable grounds</a>, reduced the water recovery target by 70 billion litres a year. The second reduced it by 605 billion litres, with the water to instead be recovered through <a href="https://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/water/basins-catchments/murray-darling/supply-efficiency-measures">36 water-saving offset projects</a>. </p>
<p>Further, the Victorian and NSW governments committed to reaching agreements with farmers to enable water for the environment to safely spill out of river channels and across privately owned floodplains, to replenish more wetlands.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-an-ugly-legacy-of-denying-water-rights-to-aboriginal-people-not-much-has-changed-141743">Australia has an ugly legacy of denying water rights to Aboriginal people. Not much has changed</a>
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<img alt="man stands on flooded road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Getting water into floodplain wetlands is crucial for flora and fauna. Pictured: a colleague of the author stands on a road at Tocumwal, NSW, as water inundates the River Murray floodplain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jamie Pittock</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>So how’s the plan going?</h2>
<p>Things are not going well. As of November last year, the offset projects were likely to deliver between <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/news-and-events/newsroom/address-national-and-rural-press-club">290 and 415 billion litres</a> of the 605 billion litres required. And <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF20172">very little water</a> is getting to floodplains.</p>
<p>And of the 450 billion litres to be retrieved through water-efficiency projects, only 26 billion litres has been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-07-05/murray-darling-basin-plan-targets-advice-request-tanya-plibersek/102559824">recovered</a>.</p>
<p>It means of the 3,200 billion litres of water a year to be returned to the environment, only <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/climate-and-river-health/water-environment/water-recovery/factors-water-recovery/progress-water">2,100 billion litres</a> was being achieved as of March this year – plus the small amount of projected water from offset projects, if it’s delivered. </p>
<p>At a meeting in February this year, the nation’s water ministers <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-24/states-fail-to-agree-as-murray-darling-basin-plan-deadline-looms/102018886">failed to agree</a> on how to meet the plan’s deadline.</p>
<p>As governments quibble, the rivers and floodplains of the Murray-Darling suffer. In the past decade, millions of fish have perished in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-millions-of-fish-die-gasping-in-the-darling-after-three-years-of-rain-202125">mass die-offs</a>. <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/climate-and-river-health/water-quality/blue-green-algae">Toxic algae</a> has bloomed, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF21057">wildife</a> and <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/despite-challenging-conditions-thousands-waterbirds-breeding-throughout-nsw">waterbirds</a> have declined in numbers and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/this-magnificent-wetland-was-barren-and-bone-dry-three-years-of-rain-brought-it-back-to-life-20221115-p5bydw.html">wetlands</a> have dried up. These are all signs that too much water is still being taken from the system.</p>
<p>So how do we get the basin plan back on track? Below, I identify the top five priorities.</p>
<h2>1. NSW must get its act together on water plans</h2>
<p>Integral to implementing the broader basin plan are 33 “<a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/water-management/basin-plan/water-resource-plans">water resource plans</a>” devised by the states. These plans bring the basin plan into legal force and detail how much water can be taken from the system and how it is divided between users such as farmers, communities and the environment. </p>
<p>NSW must produce 20 plans. To date, <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/water-management/basin-plan/water-resource-plans/list-state-water-resource-plans">just five</a> are in place. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/09/nsw-withdraws-seven-flawed-water-resource-plans-throwing-doubt-on-murray-darling-basin-plan">At least seven plans</a> by NSW were recently withdrawn to be re-drafted. </p>
<p>Until they’re finalised, key measures of the basin plan cannot be implemented. The new NSW Minns government must prioritise the remaining water resource plans and have them accredited by the Commonwealth government. </p>
<h2>2. Federal water buybacks must ramp up</h2>
<p>The Albanese government is taking steps to improve water recovery under the plan, such as <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/ideas-to-deliver-the-basin-plan">consulting stakeholders</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-22/federal-government-water-buybacks-murray-darling-basin-plan-730/102007496">restarting</a> water buybacks. But it must do more.</p>
<p>Both <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/22/murray-darling-basin-plan-on-the-brink-after-nsw-says-it-cannot-meet-water-savings-deadline">NSW</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/23/murray-darling-basin-plan-victoria-will-struggle-to-meet-water-delivery-obligations-by-deadline">Victoria</a> will almost certainly miss the 2024 deadline for delivering all infrastructure projects they promised to offset 605 billion litres of water. </p>
<p>The federal government is legally obliged to – and should – purchase additional water from farmers to cover any gap. It must also acquire more than 400 billion litres of water to make up for the shortfall in water efficiency projects.</p>
<p>For this to occur, a <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/mdb/commonwealth-water-mdb">Coalition-era cap</a> must be lifted from 1,500 billion litres to enable more federal government water purchases from farmers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="machine waters crops" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The federal government must buy more water entitlements from farmers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Abandon questionable water-saving projects</h2>
<p>At least six water-saving projects look unlikely to meet the deadline. </p>
<p>They include a large project proposed by the former NSW government to reduce evaporation at <a href="https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/491679/Menindee-Lakes-evaporation-fact-sheet.pdf">Menindee Lakes</a>, which <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/7172211/menindee-sdl-project-discussions-suspended/">appears doomed</a>. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/water/water-infrastructure-nsw/sdlam/yanco-creek-modernisation-project">project at Yanco Creek</a> in NSW has also fallen behind, and four of the nine Victorian projects have been <a href="https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=WTWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weeklytimesnow.com.au%2Fnews%2Fwater%2Fshing-halts-floodplain-works-fears-federal-funding-will-be-cut%2Fnews-story%2Fe22a38442f6ab2c7c7f4a5fd0073f996&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium">paused</a>. </p>
<p>What’s more, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/130259">ecological merit</a> of these projects are contested – as is the scientific rigour of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF22082">proposed auditing</a> method. These projects <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-plans-for-engineered-wetlands-on-the-murray-are-environmentally-dubious-heres-a-better-option-204116">should be abandoned</a> in favour of reconnecting rivers to their floodplain. </p>
<h2>4. Reconnect rivers and floodplains</h2>
<p>For floodplain wetlands to function, they must be regularly inundated with water. To date, just <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/MF20172">2% of these parts</a> of the basin are inundated each year by managed flows (or in other words, intentional water releases by authorities).</p>
<p>The federal government holds water for this purpose. Delivering the water requires compensation for the owners of inundated properties, as well as upgraded roads, bridges and levee banks. Managed inundation can benefit landholders, such as by reducing the impacts of natural floods. But governments must do a better job of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2020.1832723">communicating these benefits</a> to win support.</p>
<p>The federal government needs NSW and Victoria to help implement their agreement for watering floodplains, but this cooperation has been extremely slow. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/damning-royal-commission-report-leaves-no-doubt-that-we-all-lose-if-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-fails-110908">Damning royal commission report leaves no doubt that we all lose if the Murray-Darling Basin Plan fails</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="river at sunset" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rivers must be connected to floodplains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. Make information transparent</h2>
<p>The data and modelling used to manage water in the basin is complex and is often not publicly available. </p>
<p>In its final report in 2019, a South Australian <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/river-murray/basin-plan/murray-darling-basin-commission">royal commission</a> into the Murray-Darling Basin was highly critical of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority. The report found the authority failed to act on “the best available science” when determining how much water could be returned to the environment, and withheld modelling and other information that should have been made public. </p>
<p>Making such information freely available is crucial for accountability and to build public trust. </p>
<h2>Time for tough decisions</h2>
<p>Each key element of the basin plan has encountered trouble at the implementation stage. The five steps I’ve outlined are essential to rectifying this. </p>
<p>Attention must now also turn to a review of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, which is legally required in 2026. As well as addressing the problems detailed above, it must address two big issues essentially ignored in the plan to date: the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2021.1970094?src=recsys">lack of</a> Indigenous rights over water, and water losses due to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2023.2190493">global warming</a> and other environmental change. </p>
<p>If the Albanese government is to uphold its election promise to deliver the plan, hard decisions – and trade-offs – will be required. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-plans-for-engineered-wetlands-on-the-murray-are-environmentally-dubious-heres-a-better-option-204116">Victoria’s plans for engineered wetlands on the Murray are environmentally dubious. Here’s a better option</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Pittock is a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists and holds other voluntary roles with non-government environmental and natural resource management organisations. He is Chair of the ACT Natural Resource Management Advisory Committee.</span></em></p>Projects have not been delivered. States are bickering. If the Albanese government is to uphold its election promise to deliver the Murray plan, hard tradeoffs are needed.Jamie Pittock, Professor, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1931112022-10-28T00:44:46Z2022-10-28T00:44:46ZWhat’s in the mud? Flood victims’ fears eased by early test results<p>Flooding stirs up river sediments, which can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.126691">spread contaminants</a> in our waterways and floodplains. Flood water can carry sediments bearing <a href="https://eos.org/articles/when-rivers-are-contaminated-floods-are-only-the-first-problem">contaminants from a range of sources</a>, both historical and new, such as sewage, petrol stations, industrial yards and farming areas. This is worrying many people whose homes and gardens have been hit by repeated floods across eastern Australia. </p>
<p>One of the sites of the latest flooding is the suburb of Maribyrnong in Melbourne’s inner west. The Maribyrnong River’s industrial past means <a href="https://www.epa.vic.gov.au/about-epa/publications/2037">swimming was already not recommended</a>. The community has longstanding concerns about water and sediment quality. The flood washed those concerns right into the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/i-need-start-all-over-again-the-clean-up-in-maribyrnong-begins-20221015-p5bq0h.html">homes of hundreds</a> of residents.</p>
<p>In response, EPA Victoria’s Science division mobilised last week, at the request of Maribyrnong Council, to provide some answers for residents. We took samples from the river at three locations. We also collected and analysed flood sediments in public areas and residents’ gardens. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.epa.vic.gov.au/for-community/flood-impacted-rivers">results so far</a> from across the impacted area are consistent – the chemicals and compounds analysed were mostly below levels of concern for human health. The exception was concentrations of pathogens like <em>E. coli</em>, which is linked to sewage. Exposure to sunlight is expected to reduce these pathogen levels. </p>
<p>The best thing you can do to protect yourself at these times is to stay clear of the river and wear gloves, boots and masks while cleaning up. Leave your dirty shoes outside and wash your hands regularly. While flood conditions and clean-ups continue, stay abreast of the <a href="https://www.epa.vic.gov.au/for-community/incidents/victorian-floods-october-2022">most recent advice</a> on managing the hazards.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a hi-viz vest kneels down to collect a sample from a nature strip" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492045/original/file-20221027-29153-bp702g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492045/original/file-20221027-29153-bp702g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492045/original/file-20221027-29153-bp702g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492045/original/file-20221027-29153-bp702g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492045/original/file-20221027-29153-bp702g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492045/original/file-20221027-29153-bp702g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492045/original/file-20221027-29153-bp702g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An EPA worker collects samples from sediments left by the floods in Maribyrnong.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-go-wading-in-flood-water-if-you-can-help-it-its-a-health-risk-for-humans-and-dogs-too-178027">Don't go wading in flood water if you can help it. It's a health risk for humans – and dogs too</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why was Maribyrnong at high risk?</h2>
<p>The river flooding raised significant concerns in the community because it drains from an industrial catchment with <a href="https://www.epa.vic.gov.au/for-community/current-projects-issues/pfas-in-maribyrnong-catchment">known contamination</a>. The catchment is also home to <a href="https://www.melbourneairport.com.au/Corporate/About-us/Environment/PFAS-Management">Tullamarine Airport</a>, a known source of per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (<a href="https://www.epa.vic.gov.au/for-community/environmental-information/pfas">PFAS</a>). These industrial chemicals are persistent – they’re known as “<a href="https://phys.org/news/2022-10-chemicals-persist-wastewater-treatment-crops.html">forever chemicals</a>” – and spread easily through the environment. </p>
<p>Maribyrnong sits on a river floodplain, which accommodates excess water and sediment during high flow. The redistribution of contaminated sediment across such areas during floods is <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2014.02.004">well established</a>. Research also has found examples of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.079">toxicity in farm animals</a> from such events.</p>
<p>In addition to daily water sampling along the Maribyrnong, we have to date sampled sediment from 109 gardens and 13 public areas. To reflect the potential sources of contamination, flood water and sediment are being analysed for a suite of:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>potentially toxic trace metals – arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, manganese, nickel, lead and zinc</p></li>
<li><p>chemicals present in oil, coal and petroleum known as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons</p></li>
<li><p>PFAS</p></li>
<li><p>pathogen indicator bacteria including <em>E. coli</em> and <em>Enterococci</em>. </p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="EPA worker stands next to his vehicle as he labels newly collected samples" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492049/original/file-20221027-18797-cqxe8o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492049/original/file-20221027-18797-cqxe8o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492049/original/file-20221027-18797-cqxe8o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492049/original/file-20221027-18797-cqxe8o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492049/original/file-20221027-18797-cqxe8o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492049/original/file-20221027-18797-cqxe8o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492049/original/file-20221027-18797-cqxe8o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The EPA tested for a wide range of contaminants in samples from 109 gardens and 13 public areas that were flooded in Maribyrnong.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-wild-storms-show-how-easily-disasters-can-threaten-our-water-supply-162846">Victoria's wild storms show how easily disasters can threaten our water supply</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>So why are contamination levels not higher?</h2>
<p>Sediment cores from floodplains and riverbanks allow scientists to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF14111">evaluate what it contains</a>. Bands of coarse particles – sands and silts – from high-flow events are interspersed with finer clay deposited as the water recedes. Finer deposits often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2007.05.011">contain more contaminants</a> than the coarser material. </p>
<p>This is because the surface-area-to-volume ratio of a particle increases with decreasing particle size. This means there is more surface area for <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP149391&dsid=DS3">metal ions</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10934529.2019.1632625">organic contaminants</a> to bind to finer sediments.</p>
<p>Floods are known to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.10.004">deposit potentially toxic trace metals</a> on floodplains. However, other large flood events, such as the one caused by Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005, have <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18934-hurricanes-cleaned-up-lead-laden-new-orleans/">produced outcomes</a> like we see in Maribyrnong, where clean sediments have been draped over more contaminated urban soils. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.epa.vic.gov.au/for-community/flood-impacted-rivers">results so far</a> show flood sediments contained average concentrations of lead, a well-known contaminant, about o<a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2013C00288/Html/Volume_2#_Toc351712081">ne-third of the national guideline</a> for residential gardens. Lead was an element of concern because of the <a href="https://wwiiathome.com.au/efm.html">former munitions factory</a> in Maribyrnong.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/backyard-hens-eggs-contain-40-times-more-lead-on-average-than-shop-eggs-research-finds-187442">Backyard hens' eggs contain 40 times more lead on average than shop eggs, research finds</a>
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<p>Levels of PFAS chemicals were also very low. On average, concentrations were roughly a tenth of the <a href="https://haveyoursay.agriculture.gov.au/nemp-on-pfas/widgets/385062/documents">values regarded as being of concern</a> for human health. </p>
<p>Small amounts of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (<a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/factsheets/Pages/pfos.aspx">PFOS</a>) and perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (<a href="https://www.industrialchemicals.gov.au/consumers-and-community/and-poly-fluorinated-substances-pfas">PFHxS</a>) were detected. This is unsurprising given the upstream sources at Tullamarine Airport.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1581434936384401408"}"></div></p>
<h2>What’s the next step?</h2>
<p>EPA Science has engaged the State Emergency Service to set up similar sampling in regional locations. This will help to provide the same evidence-based guidance to communities affected by floods in those areas. This work should begin next week, with the organisations working together on sampling and fast-tracked laboratory analysis. </p>
<p>The current focus of this new rapid response from EPA Victoria is for flood-impacted communities. The work will shortly shift to all Victorian residents who want to know what’s in their soil. Through EPA’s <a href="https://www.epa.vic.gov.au/for-community/get-involved/citizen-science-program/gardensafe">GardenSafe</a> program, they can have their garden soil tested, free of charge, for trace element contaminants and soil quality indicators.</p>
<p>Building homes on a floodplain, which by definition is a plain that floods and where homes will always be at risk, arguably <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/natural-disasters/floods/causes-and-impacts">increases the impacts of climate change</a>. That said, it’s not a new venture for humans who have been taking advantage of accessible and organically rich floodplains <a href="https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/metadata/publications/ranking-of-the-worlds-cities-to-coastal-flooding/11240357">for centuries</a>. </p>
<p>Given how much flood-prone land is now developed, the crux of long-term management is to <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-causing-sydneys-monster-flood-crisis-and-3-ways-to-stop-it-from-happening-again-186285">ensure we are better prepared</a>. Future decisions should aim to create adequate space for rivers to <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-lived-through-hurricane-katrina-and-helped-design-the-rebuild-floods-will-always-come-but-we-can-build-better-to-prepare-153452">do their natural work</a>.</p>
<p>Rapid sampling and advice do not fix the root cause of the problem. However, this work can ease residents’ fears, allowing them to focus on cleaning up and rebuilding their lives after the flood.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-a-state-of-sandbagging-what-can-we-learn-from-all-the-floods-here-and-overseas-193011">Beyond a state of sandbagging: what can we learn from all the floods, here and overseas?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<hr>
<p><em>The authors undertook the work discussed in this article as employees of the EPA Victoria.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193111/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Patrick Taylor works for the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Victoria. He is the Executive Director of EPA Science and is also Victoria's Chief Environmental Scientist. He is an Honorary Professor at Macquarie University, Sydney. The EPA funded the analysis of the samples mentioned in the article as part of its response to the Victorian statewide flood emergency. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kara Fry works for the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Victoria. She is a Citizen Science Officer in EPA's Science Partnerships team. Previously, Kara was a research assistant at Macquarie University where she managed the citizen science programs VegeSafe and DustSafe. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Leahy works for the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Victoria. He is the Principal Scientist - Freshwater. He is an Associate of RMIT University STEM College.</span></em></p>Foods stir up river sediments and can spread contaminants across the floodplain. It’s a risk in areas with a history of industrial pollution, like Maribyrnong, but EPA test results are reassuring.Mark Patrick Taylor, Victoria's Chief Environmental Scientist, EPA Victoria; Honorary Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie UniversityKara Fry, Honorary Researcher, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie UniversityPaul Leahy, Research Associate, RMIT STEM College, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1928562022-10-24T19:03:12Z2022-10-24T19:03:12ZSome councils still rely on outdated paper maps as supercharged storms make a mockery of flood planning<p>Whole towns and cities are seemingly locked into more frequent and severe flooding. Business-as-usual development continues despite <a href="https://www.whoi.edu/know-your-ocean/ocean-topics/climate-weather/ocean-warming/">extreme weather and sea-level rises</a> <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/attribution-science-linkingR-warming-to-disasters-is-rapidly-advancing/">due to climate change</a>. While some local councils have online mapping, others are still using outdated paper maps.</p>
<p>Repeated floods across eastern Australia have prompted the Planning Institute of Australia to call for a framework to update flood mapping to take climate change into account. </p>
<p>A flood map shows areas to be inundated based on risk modelling and past weather data. As well as identifying at-risk areas for land-use planning, these maps are needed for flood responses. The problem with static flood maps is they don’t show critical details of the hazard a flood will present.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Flood map of Lower Hawkesbury Floodplain" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491293/original/file-20221024-5833-m3zoq1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491293/original/file-20221024-5833-m3zoq1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491293/original/file-20221024-5833-m3zoq1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491293/original/file-20221024-5833-m3zoq1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491293/original/file-20221024-5833-m3zoq1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491293/original/file-20221024-5833-m3zoq1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491293/original/file-20221024-5833-m3zoq1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Paper flood maps such as this extract from the 1982 Lower Hawkesbury Floodplain Atlas, do not include critical details such as water depth, velocity, rate of rise and potential isolation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Councils have a duty of care to provide flood maps that accurately identify areas at risk, as well as those that are safe. Yet existing information on riverine and coastal flood risks was “patchy and outdated”, <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/news-archive/2021-2022-media-releases/victorias-planners-do-not-have-the-information-they-need-to-prepare-for-floods">the institute said</a>. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] there is a patchwork of datasets gathered and applied inconsistently by councils and water authorities, who often do not have the budgets to pay for the necessary modelling, or the political authority to apply controls at a local level. This means that new housing and development can occur in flood-prone areas […]</p>
</blockquote>
<p>For many flooded communities, the immediate priority is to deal with the emergency. However, we should not lose sight of how urban planning has affected them, nor of the urgent need for planning frameworks to catch up with climate change impacts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/would-you-like-lunch-can-i-clean-out-the-chook-house-what-flood-survivors-actually-need-after-disaster-strikes-192577">‘Would you like lunch? Can I clean out the chook house?’: what flood survivors actually need after disaster strikes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Who’s responsible?</h2>
<p>The floods have highlighted the glacial pace of adaptation to climate change by planning frameworks at all levels of government. </p>
<p>For example, the New South Wales government <a href="https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/flood-prone-land-package">direction on flood-prone land</a> that took effect in July 2021 still adheres to the principles in the state’s <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/research-and-publications/publications-search/floodplain-development-manual">floodplain development manual</a> from 2005, which advocates for development on floodplains.</p>
<p>The dysfunctional relationships between the different levels of government also continue. Victorian Premier Dan Andrews <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/out-of-date-flood-maps-mean-homes-built-on-flood-plains-20221017-p5bqbl.html">said</a> flood mapping was mainly “a matter for local government”. NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet ran the nature-versus-people debate in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/05/people-before-plants-nsw-premier-commits-to-raising-warragamba-dam-wall-14-metreslink%20to%20where%20he%20did%20this">announcing</a> the wall of Warragamba Dam, Sydney’s biggest, will be raised.</p>
<p>Those on the front line of the flooding see things differently. The mayor of Wollondilly, southwest of Sydney, <a href="https://southwestvoice.com.au/warragamba-dam-wall/">said</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Raising Warragamba Dam is not in the interests of Western Sydney, potentially costing over $2 billion and enabling developers to cover rural floodplains with housing, as well as the possibility of creating a sense of complacency from those still at risk of catastrophic flooding.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491011/original/file-20221021-21-m4mvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Cover of the report A Supercharged Climate" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491011/original/file-20221021-21-m4mvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491011/original/file-20221021-21-m4mvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491011/original/file-20221021-21-m4mvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491011/original/file-20221021-21-m4mvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491011/original/file-20221021-21-m4mvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491011/original/file-20221021-21-m4mvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491011/original/file-20221021-21-m4mvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This Climate Council report from March 2022 drew attention to the changes planners must contend with.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/supercharged-climate-rain-bombs-flash-flooding-destruction/#:~:text=The%20new%20Climate%20Council%20report,degree%20of%20further%20global%20warming.">Climate Council of Australia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/policy/adaptation/strategy">National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy</a>, based on a 2012 Council of Australian Government (COAG) report, outlines the roles and responsibilities for adaptation of the three levels of government. The strategy states: “Local governments are on the frontline in dealing with the impacts of climate change.” </p>
<p>So local councils are seen to have a crucial role in adaptation at a local level. But how are underfunded councils to manage the ongoing damage to infrastructure, and the legacy of development in areas hit by supercharged weather systems? </p>
<p>It’s a legacy that led to <a href="https://insurancecouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ICA008_CatastropheReport_6.5_FA1_online.pdf">$7 billion in insurance claims</a> from floods, storms and cyclones in the past 18 months. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-cunning-plan-how-la-nina-unleashes-squadrons-of-storm-clouds-to-wreak-havoc-in-your-local-area-192500">‘A cunning plan’: how La Niña unleashes squadrons of storm clouds to wreak havoc in your local area</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The politics of flood mapping</h2>
<p>The flood-mapping issue is complicated by a level of political entrenchment related to property rights. Councils are wary of upsetting voters and ratepayers who see their assets devalued by a flood rating. When Gold Coast Council released updated flood maps in 2018, for example, they <a href="https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/council/whats-so-scary-about-new-gold-coast-flooding-maps-is-the-cost-of-your-home-insurance/news-story/ef2d9fc5e2532d9252b41411c7ff1a2a">caused a stir</a> among residents.</p>
<p>On the NSW Central Coast, the local council completed a flood study that concluded a majority of the housing lots would be flooded as a result of rising sea levels in coming decades. Yet the council removed the option of retreat or property buyouts under pressure from residents. They <a href="https://www.yourvoiceourcoast.com/sites/default/files/2021-02/climate_adaptation_case_study.pdf">preferred adaptations</a> such as levees, walls and raising their buildings. Councils would need to secure additional funding to cover the costs of such measures.</p>
<p>On the other hand, there was community opposition to a planned levee in Seymour, because of concerns about the loss of river views, access and habitat. This led the local council to <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/rejected-seymour-levee-could-have-averted-flooding-disaster-20221017-p5bqfi.html">abandon the levee</a> to protect homes and businesses that have now been flooded.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wild-weather-of-la-nina-could-wipe-out-vast-stretches-of-australias-beaches-and-sand-dunes-191941">The wild weather of La Niña could wipe out vast stretches of Australia's beaches and sand dunes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>We must plan for the long term</h2>
<p>Current approaches to flood mitigation are not a viable long-term strategy. More development on floodplains means more property damage when the floods come. Increasing populations also put added strain on emergency services and escape routes. </p>
<p>Even before the latest floods, the Insurance Council of Australia issued a statement, <a href="https://insurancecouncil.com.au/resource/updated-data-shows-2022-flood-was-australias-costliest/">Building a More Resilient Australia</a>, which said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“[…] it’s imperative that governments at state and federal level commit to a significant increase in investment in programs to lessen the impact of future events. We also need to plan better so we no longer build homes in harm’s way [and] make buildings more resilient to the impacts of extreme weather”.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If the insurance industry gets it, why are governments still allowing new development in high-risk areas? Some see developing these areas as necessary to solve the ongoing affordable housing crisis. Others consider it entwined with development industry lobbying. And some councils want the rate revenue and fear costly court actions over refused development applications. </p>
<p>So to the greater question: how are governments addressing the climate risk of flooding and urban development within the planning frameworks? Regional and state plans take a long time to draft, put out for public consultation, redraft and get approved.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1582159272221229056"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/building-too-close-to-the-water-its-ridiculous-talk-of-buyouts-after-floods-shows-need-to-get-serious-about-climate-adaptation-186999">'Building too close to the water. It's ridiculous!' Talk of buyouts after floods shows need to get serious about climate adaptation</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A new era demands a new approach</h2>
<p>Climate change presents vexing problems for communities, governments and urban planning. As ice sheets melt, sea levels rise and climate drivers change, more extreme weather patterns are increasingly a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">threat to the fabric of our society</a>. </p>
<p>Planning frameworks must adapt to the climate crisis. This requires land-use approaches that direct people and property away from hazardous floodplains. As the Planning Institute of Australia has <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/11843">warned</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The decisions planners make now have a lasting impact, and our profession is key to responding to a changing climate.”</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Ellis receives funding from the Bond University higher degree research fund. He is affiliated with the Planning Institute of Australia.</span></em></p>Local councils are on the front line in a planning system that lacks an up-to-date planning framework to properly assess flood risks and prepare responses.Mark Ellis, PhD Candidate in Planning, Bond UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1866202022-08-01T12:28:10Z2022-08-01T12:28:10ZFlood maps show US vastly underestimates contamination risk at old industrial sites<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476865/original/file-20220801-70473-vod0jt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=226%2C0%2C2166%2C1451&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Maywood Riverfront Park was built on the site of eight former industrial properties in Los Angeles County.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/maywood-riverfront-park-is-closed-to-the-public-because-of-news-photo/564026071">Luis Sinco/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/urban-flooding-in-the-united-states">Floodwaters are a growing risk for many American cities</a>, threatening to displace not only people and housing but also the land-based pollution left behind by earlier industrial activities.</p>
<p>In 2019, researchers at the U.S. Government Accountability Office <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-20-73">investigated climate-related risks</a> at the 1,571 most polluted properties in the country, also known as <a href="https://www.epa.gov/superfund/superfund-national-priorities-list-npl">Superfund sites</a> on the federal National Priorities List. They found an alarming 60% were in locations at risk of climate-related events, including wildfires and flooding.</p>
<p>As troubling as those numbers sound, our research shows that that’s just the proverbial <a href="https://www.russellsage.org/publications/sites-unseen">tip of the iceberg</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/socf.12639">Many times that number</a> of potentially contaminated former industrial sites exist. Most were never documented by government agencies, which began collecting data on industrially contaminated lands only in the 1980s. Today, many of these sites have been redeveloped for other uses such as homes, buildings or parks. </p>
<p>For communities near these sites, the flooding of contaminated land is worrisome because it threatens to compromise common pollution containment methods, such as capping contaminated land with clean soil. It can also transport legacy contaminants into surrounding soils and waterways, putting the health and safety of urban ecosystems and residents at risk.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A boat sits by a dock outside a new building along the waterway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New York developers are planning thousands of housing units along the Gowanus Canal, a notoriously contaminated industrial area and waterway.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/general-view-of-the-gowanus-canal-and-a-new-residential-news-photo/876795968">Epics/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We study urban pollution and environmental change. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac78f7">recent study</a>, we conducted a comprehensive assessment by combining historical manufacturing directories, which locate the majority of former industrial facilities, with flood risk projections from the <a href="https://firststreet.org/">First Street Foundation</a>. The projections use climate models and historic data to assess future risk for each property.</p>
<p>The results show that the GAO’s 2019 report vastly underestimated the scale and scope of the risks many communities will face in the decades ahead.</p>
<h2>Pollution risks in 6 cities</h2>
<p>We started our study by collecting the location and flood risk for former industrial sites in six very different cities facing varying types of flood risk over the coming years: Houston; Minneapolis; New Orleans; Philadelphia; Portland, Oregon; and Providence, Rhode Island. </p>
<p>These former industrial sites have been called <a href="https://www.mcgrawcenter.org/stories/ghosts-of-polluters-past/">ghosts of polluters past</a>. While the smokestacks and factories of these <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-lies-beneath-to-manage-toxic-contamination-in-cities-study-their-industrial-histories-104897">relics</a> may no longer be visible, much of their legacy pollution likely remains. </p>
<p>In just these six cities, we found <a href="https://osf.io/dnjvg/">over 6,000 sites</a> at risk of flooding in the next 30 years – far more than recognized by the EPA. Using census data, we estimate that nearly 200,000 residents live on blocks with at least one flood-prone relic industrial site and its legacy contaminants. </p>
<p><iframe id="zNay3" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zNay3/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Without detailed records, we can’t assess the extent of contamination at each relic site or how that contamination might spread during flooding. But the sheer number of flood-prone sites suggests the U.S. has a widespread problem it will need to solve.</p>
<p>The highest-risk areas tended to be clustered along waterways where industry and worker housing once thrived, areas that often became home to low-income communities.</p>
<h2>Legacy of the industrial Northeast</h2>
<p>In Providence, an example of an older industrial city, we found thousands of at-risk relic sites scattered along Narragansett Bay and the floodplains of the Providence and Woonasquatucket Rivers. </p>
<p>Over the decades, as these factories manufactured textiles, machine tools, jewelry and other products, they released untold quantities of environmentally persistent contaminants, including heavy metals like lead and cadmium and volatile organic chemicals, into the surrounding soils and water. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map with dots, primarily along waterways." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flood-prone relic industrial sites in Providence, R.I.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac78f7">Marlow, et al. 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, the Rhode Island Department of Health recently reported <a href="https://ecori.org/2020-3-4-pfas-found-in-drinking-water-throughout-ri/">widespread drinking water contamination</a> from <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-pfas-and-why-is-the-epa-warning-about-them-in-drinking-water-an-environmental-health-scientist-explains-185015">PFAS</a>, often referred to as “<a href="https://www.ewg.org/what-are-pfas-chemicals">forever chemicals</a>,” which are used to create stain- and water-resistant products and can be toxic. </p>
<p>The tendency for older factories to locate close to the water, where they would have easy access to power and transportation, puts these sites at risk today from extreme storms and sea-level rise. Many of these were small factories easily overlooked by regulators.</p>
<h2>Chemicals, oil and gas</h2>
<p>Newer cities, like Houston, are also vulnerable. Houston faces especially high risks given the scale of nearby oil, gas and chemical manufacturing infrastructure and its lack of formal zoning regulations.</p>
<p>In August 2017, historic rains from Hurricane Harvey triggered more than <a href="https://phys.org/news/2018-03-hurricane-harvey-toxic-impact-deeper.html">100 industrial spills</a> in the greater Houston area, releasing more than a half-billion gallons of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-harvey-spills/oil-and-chemical-spills-from-hurricane-harvey-big-but-dwarfed-by-katrina-idUSKCN1BQ1E8">hazardous chemicals and wastewater</a> into the local environment, including well-known carcinogens such as dioxin, ethylene and PCBs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Maps with dots widespread in the city." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flood-prone relic industrial sites in Houston.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac78f7">Marlow, et al. 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Even that event doesn’t reflect the full extent of the industrially polluted lands at growing risk of flooding throughout the city. We found nearly 2,000 relic industrial sites at an elevated risk of flooding in the Houston area; the GAO report raised concerns about only 15.</p>
<p>Many of these properties are concentrated in or near communities of color. In all six cities in our study, we found that the strongest predictor of a neighborhood’s containing a flood-prone site of former hazardous industry is the proportion of nonwhite and non-English-speaking residents.</p>
<h2>Keeping communities safe</h2>
<p>As temperatures rise, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-flooding-worse-3-reasons-the-world-is-seeing-more-record-breaking-deluges-and-flash-floods-185364">air can hold more moisture</a>, leading to strong downpours. Those downpours can trigger flooding, particularly in paved urban areas with less open ground for the water to sink in. Climate change also contributes to sea-level rise, as coastal communities like <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/esnt/2020/beating-back-the-tides">Annapolis, Maryland</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-20-foot-sea-wall-wont-save-miami-how-living-structures-can-help-protect-the-coast-and-keep-the-paradise-vibe-165076">Miami</a> are discovering with <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-tide-flood-risk-is-accelerating-putting-coastal-economies-at-risk-164481">increasing days of high-tide flooding</a>. </p>
<p>Keeping communities safe in a changing climate will mean cleaning up flood-prone industrial relic sites. In some cases, companies can be held financially responsible for the cleanup, but often, the costs fall to taxpayers.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text">infrastructure bill</a> that Congress passed in 2021 includes <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/bipartisan-infrastructure-law/#environmentalremediation">$21 billion for environmental remediation</a>. As a key element of new “green” infrastructure, some of that money could be channeled into flood-prone areas or invested in developing pollution remediation techniques that do not fail when flooded.</p>
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<img alt="A large brick housing complex with people sitting in lawn chairs outside. A sign on the lawn is in Spanish." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The West Calumet Housing Complex in East Chicago, Ind., was built on the site of an old lead refinery. It was closed down after children there were found to have elevated levels of lead in their blood. The sign reads: ‘Do not play in the dirt or next to shredded wood mulch.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/LeadContaminationEastChicago/8d095ee761a64ca09dcb3e4a3baedfb7/photo">AP Photo/Tae-Gyun Kim</a></span>
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<p>Our findings suggest the entire process for prioritizing and cleaning up relic sites needs to be reconsidered to incorporate future flood risk.</p>
<p>Flood and pollution risks are not separate problems. Dealing with them effectively requires deepening relationships with local residents who bear disproportionate risks. If communities are involved from the beginning, the benefits of green redevelopment and mitigation efforts <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/hud-says-texas-agency-discriminated-in-flood-relief-funding">can extend to a much larger population</a>. </p>
<p>One approach suggested by our work is to move beyond individual properties as the basis of environmental hazard and risk assessment and concentrate on affected ecosystems.</p>
<p>Focusing on individual sites misses the historical and geographical scale of industrial pollution. Concentrating remediation on meaningful ecological units, such as watersheds, can create healthier environments with fewer risks when the land floods.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186620/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Marlow is supported by the NYUAD Center for Interacting Urban Networks (CITIES), funded by Tamkeen under the NYUAD Research Institute Award CG001. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James R. Elliott has received funding from the National Science Foundation for research related to this piece.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Frickel has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Institute of Environmental Health for research related to this article. </span></em></p>Climate change is colliding with old factory sites where soil or water contamination still exist, and the most vulnerable populations are particularly at risk.Thomas Marlow, Postdoctoral Fellow in the Center for Interacting Urban Networks (CITIES) at NYU Abu Dhabi, New York UniversityJames R. Elliott, Professor of Sociology, Rice UniversityScott Frickel, Professor of Sociology and Environment and Society, Brown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1846362022-06-14T03:42:28Z2022-06-14T03:42:28ZIt’s time to come clean on Lismore’s future. People and businesses have to relocate away from the floodplains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468657/original/file-20220614-26-4k2fet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C269%2C4000%2C1970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than three months after the monster floods wrecked much of Lismore, there is still no clarity for the town’s residents and businesses who urgently need to make investment decisions. Should they move to higher ground, make temporary fixes, or renovate for the long haul? </p>
<p>The problem is, authorities differ. “The debate is over – we will be doing engineering work for flood mitigation,” declared Kevin Hogan, the federal member for Page, as he <a href="https://lismoreapp.com.au/news-sport/news/the-flood-mitigation-debate-is-over-government-throws-big-bucks-at-solutions?id=6233f52178b39605c54aaca9">announced</a> a A$10m CSIRO-led project to study flood mitigation.</p>
<p>Lismore Council has since <a href="https://yoursay.lismore.nsw.gov.au/growth-management-strategy?tool=qanda">recommended</a> “a planned retreat of residential dwellings” from the highest flood risk areas. </p>
<p>It’s no wonder people in Lismore are confused. Can they stay put and rebuild, confident the government will stop flood devastation? Or should everyone at low elevation – including all businesses in the town centre – move? The city’s 44,000 people need clarity. </p>
<p>My view is stopping floods of this size or larger will simply not be viable. Raising the town’s 10 metre high levee won’t work. To contain the immense volume of water upstream, we would have to build many expensive new dams. Instead, we should move all buildings off the floodplains and work to reforest floodplains upriver to slow the floodwaters. </p>
<h2>Lismore is prone to floods. But this year’s were off the charts</h2>
<p>My city floods regularly, with <a href="https://lismore.nsw.gov.au/files/2022-033-2022-.pdf">100 floods</a> over the past 152 years. When major rain hits the surrounding mountains, water from many creeks funnel into the Wilsons River, which runs through the centre of town. The town’s levee was built to stop major floods. But in 2017, the floods overtopped the levee for the first time. In February this year, the monster flood came through at 14.4 metres, fully two metres higher than the supposed “1-in-a-100-year” event and 2.3m higher than any previously recorded.</p>
<p>How much water is that? At its peak, Wilsons River at Lismore was flowing at <a href="https://lismoreapp.com.au/news-sport/news/lismore-floodwater-enough-to-fill-half-of-sydney-harbour?id=6298a72452737e002c5e2e45">216 gigalitres per day</a>. That’s an Olympic swimming pool of water every second. That is an unprecedented volume and very difficult to mitigate. </p>
<p>Inquiries and reports after earlier floods have usually been in favour of a gradual withdrawal from vulnerable areas. We had a voluntary acquisition program in 1954, a report in 1980 finding flood mitigation was uneconomic and ineffective, and a 1982 report advocating buy-backs, land swaps and relocation assistance. None of these led to major relocations. Instead, in 2005, a $A19 million levee was constructed to protect against a 1-in-10 year flood. It’s already been overtopped three times. Parts of the town are now <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-05/brt-flood-insurance-story-lismore-nsw-climate-change-extreme-wet/100881434">effectively uninsurable</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-simply-havent-got-it-in-me-to-do-it-again-imagining-a-new-heart-for-flood-stricken-lismore-178982">'I simply haven’t got it in me to do it again': imagining a new heart for flood-stricken Lismore</a>
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<p>Could the controversial proposal for a new dam upriver at Dunoon help, as <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/lismore-transformed-into-warzone-as-political-bickering-gridlocked-bureaucracy-leaves-floodravaged-town-repeating-history/news-story/7bed16b645e2d2992608692d2b946450">some suggest</a>? Unlikely, given its catchment only covers 5% of the Lismore basin, and its capacity is only 5% of what would be required to mitigate these floods. We would need 12 such dams, kept empty, to mitigate floods this size. These wouldn’t stack up economically, ecologically, or culturally. </p>
<p>What about raising the levees? This doesn’t work, because water constrained by the levee rises to greater heights. In a wide floodplain, this might not be a problem. But Lismore’s floodplain is narrow. If we had raised the existing levee from 10 to 15m, the February flood would have had its flow restricted by 75%. Water would have backed up and ultimately overtopped the levee. </p>
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<p>Raising buildings above flood height is a major undertaking (especially in the CBD), and would substantially alter the character of the city. Renovating buildings for flood tolerance is possible, but this does not address the substantial costs of flood disruptions and the clean-up. Nor does this strategy protect lives from rapid and unexpected flooding. </p>
<p>What would work is restoring vegetation on the floodplains above Lismore, and clear vegetation on the floodplains below Lismore. Why? Because vegetation can make a <a href="http://www.arr-software.org/pdfs/ARR_190514_Book6.pdf">five-fold</a> difference in water velocity. If we reforest floodplains to the north through projects like tree plantations for koalas, horticulture and rainforest restoration, we would slow the floods significantly. If we clear more areas on the floodplains below Lismore, we would also speed up the clearance of floodwaters from the river. These two methods combined would lower the height of the flood peak. These interventions are also tolerant of imprecise assumptions and extreme situations, and are not prone to sudden failure.</p>
<h2>We must take relocation seriously</h2>
<p>While we might have considered the clean-up and restoration costs tolerable if they occur once in a lifetime, the nature of our floods is changing. Floods once considered rare are now more common, as climate change warms the air and lets it hold more moisture, coupled with ever-increasing hard surfaces such as roofs and roads which cause faster runoff. The reality is we need to prepare for <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/climate-change-floods/">more frequent and more severe flooding</a>. </p>
<p>The logical solution is to relocate our city’s important infrastructure – houses, businesses and factories – away from the floodplain altogether. On a smaller scale, this is what happened in the south-east Queensland town of Grantham after the 2011 “inland tsunami” of water destroyed much of the town. The council <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-13/grantham-land-swap-a-model-for-future/100902758">pioneered a land-swap </a>to move many of the houses most at risk to higher ground on a nearby cattle property. </p>
<p>The decision to relocate homes and businesses is a big one. We can no longer avoid this difficult discussion, however. Doing nothing will not bring back the old Lismore. Our city has changed, and will never be the same again. </p>
<p>On the positive side, we have a real opportunity to create a new, better version of Lismore. If we delay a decision or keep the idea of mitigation alive, we will create uncertainty and see our city dwindle, as hard-hit businesses and residents drift away and establish elsewhere. </p>
<p>Floodplain residents should not be misled into investing in expensive renovations, when relocation is the better solution.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lismore-faced-monster-floods-all-but-alone-we-must-get-better-at-climate-adaptation-and-fast-182766">Lismore faced monster floods all but alone. We must get better at climate adaptation, and fast</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184636/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jerry Vanclay does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lismore’s residents and businesses on the floodplain need to look at relocation, not rebuilding.Jerry Vanclay, Professor, Southern Cross UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1759582022-01-31T16:00:51Z2022-01-31T16:00:51ZNew flood maps show US damage rising 26% in next 30 years due to climate change alone, and the inequity is stark<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443292/original/file-20220130-21-1nyzsyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C22%2C3000%2C1967&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coastal cities like Port Arthur, Texas, are at increasing risk from flooding during storms.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/evacuees-sit-on-a-boat-after-being-rescued-from-flooding-news-photo/841006468">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is raising flood risks in neighborhoods across the U.S. much faster than many people realize. Over the next three decades, the cost of flood damage is on pace to rise 26% due to climate change alone, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01265-6">an analysis of our new flood risk maps</a> shows.</p>
<p>That’s only part of the risk. Despite <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/29/houston-is-experiencing-its-third-500-year-flood-in-3-years-how-is-that-possible/">recent devastating floods</a>, people are still building in high-risk areas. With population growth factored in, we found the increase in U.S. flood losses will be four times higher than the climate-only effect.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RO4T7pcAAAAJ&hl=en">Our team</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=iDOrsycAAAAJ&hl=en">develops</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=NSG7Vz0AAAAJ&hl=en">cutting-edge flood</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=cko_yyIAAAAJ&hl=en">risk maps</a> that incorporate climate change. It’s the data that <a href="https://www.fathom.global/newsroom/fathom-partners-with-first-street-foundation-to-create-flood-factor-a-transformative-tool-democratising-flood-data-across-the-us/">drives local risk estimates</a> you’re likely to see on real estate websites.</p>
<p>In the new analysis, published Jan. 31, 2022, we estimated <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01265-6">where flood risk is rising fastest and who is in harm’s way</a>. The results show the high costs of flooding and lay bare the inequities of who has to endure America’s crippling flood problem. They also show the importance of altering development patterns now.</p>
<p><iframe id="V3e9W" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/V3e9W/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The role of climate change</h2>
<p>Flooding is the <a href="https://www.fbiic.gov/public/2010/mar/FloodingHistoryandCausesFS.PDF">most frequent and costliest</a> natural disaster in the United States, and its costs are projected to rise as the climate warms. Decades of measurements, computer models and basic physics all point to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">increasing precipitation and sea level rise</a>.</p>
<p>As the atmosphere warms, it holds about <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastating-colorado-fires-cap-a-year-of-climate-disasters-in-2021-with-one-side-of-the-country-too-wet-the-other-dangerously-dry-173402">7% more moisture </a> for every degree Celsius that the temperature rises, meaning more moisture is available to fall as rain, potentially raising the risk of inland flooding. A warmer climate also leads to rising sea levels and higher storm surges as land ice melts and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/">warming ocean water expands</a>.</p>
<p>Yet, translating that understanding into the detailed impact of future flooding has been beyond the grasp of existing flood mapping approaches.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443260/original/file-20220129-13-vcoz11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map of Houston showing flooding extending much farther inland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443260/original/file-20220129-13-vcoz11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443260/original/file-20220129-13-vcoz11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443260/original/file-20220129-13-vcoz11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443260/original/file-20220129-13-vcoz11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443260/original/file-20220129-13-vcoz11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443260/original/file-20220129-13-vcoz11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443260/original/file-20220129-13-vcoz11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A map of Houston shows flood risk changing over the next 30 years. Blue areas are today’s 100-year flood-risk zones. The red areas reflect the same zones in 2050.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wing et al., 2022</span></span>
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<p>Previous efforts to link climate change to flood models offered only a broad view of the threat and didn’t zoom in close enough to provide reliable measures of local risk, although they could illustrate the general direction of change. Most local flood maps, such as those produced by the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps">Federal Emergency Management Agency</a>, have a different problem: They’re based on historical changes rather than incorporating the risks ahead, and <a href="https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/blog/rhc3.12166.pdf">the government is</a> <a href="https://asfpm-library.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/FSC/MapNation/ASFPM_MaptheNation_Report_2020.pdf">slow to update them</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028673">Our maps</a> account for flooding from rivers, rainfall and the oceans – both now and into the future – across the entire contiguous United States. They are produced at scales that show street-by-street impacts, and unlike FEMA maps, they cover floods of many different sizes, from nuisance flooding that may occur every few years to once-in-a-millennium disasters.</p>
<p>While hazard maps only show where floods might occur, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01265-6">our new risk analysis</a> combines that with data on the U.S. building stock to understand the damage that occurs when floodwaters collide with homes and businesses. It’s the first validated analysis of climate-driven flood risk for the U.S.</p>
<h2>The inequity of America’s flood problem</h2>
<p>We estimated that the annual cost of flooding today is over US$32 billion nationwide, with an outsized burden on communities in Appalachia, the Gulf Coast and the Northwest.</p>
<p><iframe id="aMW46" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aMW46/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>When we looked at demographics, we found that today’s flood risk is predominantly concentrated in white, impoverished communities. Many of these are in low-lying areas directly on the coasts or Appalachian valleys at risk from heavy rainfall.</p>
<p>But the increase in risk <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/">as rising oceans reach farther inland during storms and high tides</a> over the next 30 years falls disproportionately on communities with large African American populations on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Urban and rural areas from Texas to Florida to Virginia contain predominantly Black communities projected to see at least a 20% increase in flood risk over the next 30 years.</p>
<p>Historically, poorer communities <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.105023">haven’t seen as much investment</a> in <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2021.752307">flood adaptation</a> or infrastructure, <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/WP134-Understanding-the-adaptation-deficit.pdf">leaving them more exposed</a>. The new data, reflecting the cost of damage, contradicts a common misconception that flood risk exacerbated by sea level rise is concentrated in whiter, wealthier areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman carries a child past an area where flood water surrounds low-rise apartment buildings." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443291/original/file-20220130-13-kkji9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443291/original/file-20220130-13-kkji9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443291/original/file-20220130-13-kkji9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443291/original/file-20220130-13-kkji9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443291/original/file-20220130-13-kkji9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443291/original/file-20220130-13-kkji9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443291/original/file-20220130-13-kkji9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Florence’s storm surge and extreme rainfall flooded towns on North Carolina’s Neuse River many miles inland from the ocean in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/diamond-dillahunt-2-year-old-ta-layah-koonce-and-shkoel-news-photo/1032890856">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our findings raise policy questions about disaster recovery. Prior research has found <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10527001.2020.1838172">that these groups recover less quickly</a> than more privileged residents and that disasters can further exacerbate existing inequities. Current federal disaster aid <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2021-hurricane-season-showed-us-isnt-prepared-as-climate-related-disasters-push-people-deeper-into-poverty-169075">disproportionately helps wealthier residents</a>. Without financial safety nets, disasters can be tipping points into financial stress or deeper poverty.</p>
<h2>Population growth is a major driver of flood risk</h2>
<p>Another important contributor to flood risk is the growing population.</p>
<p>As urban areas expand, people are building in riskier locations, including expanding into existing floodplains – areas that were already at risk of flooding, even in a stable climate. That’s making adapting to the rising climate risks even more difficult.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443262/original/file-20220129-17-189cjvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A satellite image of Kansas City showing flood risk overlaid along the rivers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443262/original/file-20220129-17-189cjvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443262/original/file-20220129-17-189cjvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443262/original/file-20220129-17-189cjvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443262/original/file-20220129-17-189cjvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443262/original/file-20220129-17-189cjvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443262/original/file-20220129-17-189cjvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443262/original/file-20220129-17-189cjvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Kansas City flood map shows developments in the 100-year flood zone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.fathom.global">Fathom</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hurricane Harvey made that risk painfully clear when its record rainfall sent two reservoirs spilling into neighborhoods, inundating homes that had been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/22/us/houston-harvey-flooding-reservoir.html">built in the reservoirs’ flood zones</a>. That was in 2017, and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/fresh-from-hurricane-harveys-flooding-houston-starts-to-build-anew--in-the-flood-plain/2018/05/22/2c5ccab8-53b6-11e8-a551-5b648abe29ef_story.html">communities in Houston are rebuilding</a> in risky areas again.</p>
<p>We integrated into our model predictions how and where the increasing numbers of people will live in order to assess their future flood risk. The result: Future development patterns have a four times greater impact on 2050 flood risk than climate change alone.</p>
<h2>On borrowed time</h2>
<p>If these results seem alarming, consider that these are conservative estimates. We used a <a href="https://sos.noaa.gov/catalog/datasets/climate-model-temperature-change-rcp-45-2006-2100/">middle-of-the-road trajectory</a> for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, one in which global carbon <a href="https://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/topic_futurechanges.php">emissions peak in the 2040s</a> and then fall.</p>
<p>Importantly, much of this impact over the next three decades is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/09/climate/climate-change-report-ipcc-un.html">already locked</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3357">into the climate system</a>. While cutting emissions now is crucial to slow the rate of sea level rise and reduce future flood risk, adaptation is required to protect against the losses we project to 2050.</p>
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<p>If future development was directed outside of the riskiest areas, and new construction met higher standards for flood mitigation, some of these projected losses could be avoided. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0437-5">In previous research</a>, we found that for a third of currently undeveloped U.S. floodplains it is cheaper to buy the land at today’s prices and preserve it for recreation and wildlife than develop it and pay for the inevitable flood damages later.</p>
<p>The results stress how critical land use and building codes are when it comes to adapting to climate change and managing future losses from increasing climate extremes. Protecting lives and property will mean moving existing populations out of harm’s way and stopping new construction in flood-risk areas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175958/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Wing is a Research Fellow at the University of Bristol and also the Chief Research Officer of Fathom, a flood risk analytics firm.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carolyn Kousky is the Executive Director of the Wharton Risk Center at the University of Pennsylvania.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeremy Porter is Professor of Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences at CUNY and also the Chief Research Officer at the research and technology non-profit First Street Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Bates is Professor of Hydrology at the University of Bristol and also a founding shareholder of Fathom.</span></em></p>A street-by-street analysis shows where the risks are rising fastest and also lays bare the inequities of who has to endure America’s crippling flood problem.Oliver Wing, Research Fellow, University of BristolCarolyn Kousky, Executive Director, Wharton Risk Center, University of PennsylvaniaJeremy Porter, Professor of Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, City University of New YorkPaul Bates, Professor of Hydrology, School of Geographical Sciences, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1685452022-01-20T13:44:50Z2022-01-20T13:44:50ZBeavers offer lessons about managing water in a changing climate, whether the challenge is drought or floods<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440331/original/file-20220111-21389-ltiaq3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C18%2C4007%2C2999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wetlands created by beavers, like this one in Amherst, Massachusetts, store floodwaters and provide habitat for animals and birds.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Christine Hatch</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s no accident that both the <a href="https://web.mit.edu/graphicidentity/tim-the-beaver.html">Massachusetts Institute of Technology</a> and the <a href="https://identity.caltech.edu/logoseal/athletics">California Institute of Technology</a> claim the beaver (<em>Castor canadensis</em>) as their mascots. Renowned engineers, beavers seem able to dam any stream, building structures with logs and mud that can flood large areas. </p>
<p>As climate change causes extreme storms in some areas and intense drought in others, scientists are finding that beavers’ small-scale natural interventions <a href="https://www.chelseagreen.com/product/eager-paperback/">are valuable</a>. In dry areas, beaver ponds restore moisture to the soil; in wet zones, their dams and ponds can help to slow floodwaters. These ecological services are so useful that land managers are translocating beavers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/23/beavers-native-american-tribes-washington-california">in the U.S.</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210713-the-beavers-returning-to-the-desert">the United Kingdom</a> to help restore ecosystems and make them more resilient to climate change. </p>
<p>Scientists estimate that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd34e">hundreds of millions of beavers</a> once dammed waterways across the Northern Hemisphere. They were <a href="https://ecwpress.com/products/once-they-were-hats">hunted nearly to extinction for their fur</a> in the 18th and 19th centuries in Europe and North America but are <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/beavers-climate-change-conservation-news">making comebacks today</a> in many areas. As a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/C-Hatch">geoscientist specializing in water resources</a>, I think it’s important to understand how helpful beavers can be in the <a href="https://methowbeaverproject.org">right places</a> and to find ways for humans to coexist with them in developed areas.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6lT5W32xRN4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Scientists are studying ways to use beavers to mitigate wildfire and drought risks in the western U.S.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How beavers alter landscapes</h2>
<p>Beavers <a href="https://www.sciencefocus.com/nature/why-do-beavers-build-dams/">dam streams to create ponds</a>, where they can construct their dome-shaped lodges in the water, keeping predators at a distance. When they create a pond, many other effects follow. </p>
<p>Newly flooded trees die but remain standing as bare “snags” where birds nest. The diverted streams create complicated interwoven channels of slow-moving water, tangled with logs and plants that provide hiding places for fish. The messy complexity behind a beaver dam creates many different kinds of habitats for creatures such as fish, birds, frogs and insects. </p>
<p>Human dams often <a href="https://www.nwcouncil.org/reports/columbia-river-history/fishpassage">block fish passage</a> upstream and downstream, even when the dams <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/upstream-battle-fishes-shun-modern-dam-passages-population-declines/">include fish ladders</a>. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-2979.2011.00421.x">studies have shown</a> that fish have no trouble migrating upstream past beaver dams. One reason may be that the fish can rest in slow pools and cool pond complexes after navigating the tallest parts of the dams. </p>
<p>The slow-moving water behind beaver dams is very effective at trapping sediment, which drops to the bottom of the pond. Studies measuring total organic carbon in active and abandoned beaver meadows suggest that before the 1800s, active and abandoned beaver ponds across North America <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50710">stored large amounts of carbon</a> in sediment trapped behind them. This finding is relevant today as scientists look for ways to <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-world-needs-now-to-fight-climate-change-more-swamps-99198">increase carbon storage in forests and other natural ecosystems</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441410/original/file-20220118-15-d1qkya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Curved dam in a marsh, made of wood, grass and mud." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441410/original/file-20220118-15-d1qkya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441410/original/file-20220118-15-d1qkya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441410/original/file-20220118-15-d1qkya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441410/original/file-20220118-15-d1qkya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441410/original/file-20220118-15-d1qkya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441410/original/file-20220118-15-d1qkya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441410/original/file-20220118-15-d1qkya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A beaver dam in Mason Neck State Park in Lorton, Virginia, creates a pond behind it that can spread out and slow down floodwaters during a storm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/BDNqd1">Virginia State Parks</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Beavers may persist in one location for decades if they aren’t threatened by bears, cougars or humans, but they will move on if food runs out near their pond. When abandoned beaver dams fail, the ponds drain and gradually become grassy meadows as plants from the surrounding land seed them. </p>
<p>Dried meadows can serve as floodplains for nearby rivers, allowing waters to spill out and provide forage and spawning areas for fish during high flows. Floodplain meadows are <a href="https://www.fws.gov/oregonfwo/toolsforlandowners/riverscience/documents/brg%20v.1.0%20final%20reduced.pdf">valuable habitat</a> for ground-nesting birds and other species that depend on the river. </p>
<h2>The value of slowing the flow</h2>
<p>As human settlements expand, people often wish to make use of every acre. That typically means that they want either land that is solid and dry enough to farm or waterways they can navigate by boat. To create those conditions, humans remove floating logs from streams and install drains to draw water off of fields and roads as quickly and efficiently as possible. </p>
<p>But covering more and more land surface with barriers that don’t absorb water, such as pavement and rooftops, means that water flows into rivers and streams more quickly. Rainfall from an average storm can produce an intense river flow that <a href="https://extension.umass.edu/riversmart/">erodes the banks and beds of waterways</a>. And as climate change <a href="https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-13/">fuels more intense storms in many places</a>, it will amplify this destructive impact.</p>
<p>Some developers limit this kind of damaging flow by using <a href="https://basc.pnnl.gov/resource-guides/swales-drains-and-site-grading-stormwater-control">nature-based engineering principles</a>, such as “ponding” water to intercept it and slow it down; spreading flows out more widely to reduce the water’s speed; and designing swales, or sunken spots, that allow water to sink into the ground. Beaver wetlands do all of these things, only better. Research in the United Kingdom has documented that beaver activity can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.122">reduce the flow of floodwaters from farmlands by up to 30%</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1443636906487697416"}"></div></p>
<p>Beaver meadows and wetlands also <a href="https://kingcounty.gov/services/environment/animals-and-plants/beavers/Benefits.aspx">help cool the ground around and beneath them</a>. Wet soil in these zones contains a lot of organic matter from buried and decayed plants, which holds onto moisture longer than soil formed only from rocks and minerals. In my <a href="https://www.livingobservatory.org/learning-report">wetland research</a>, I have found that after a storm, water entering the ground passes through pure mineral sand in hours to days but can remain in soils that are 80%-90% organic matter for as long as a month. </p>
<p>Cool, wet soil also serves as a buffer against wildfires. Recent studies in the western U.S. have found that vegetation in beaver-dammed river corridors is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2225">more fire-resistant</a> than in areas without beavers because it is well watered and lush, so it doesn’t burn as easily. As a result, areas near beaver dams provide <a href="https://www.sagegrouseinitiative.com/beaver-breaks-how-beavers-and-low-tech-riparian-restoration-help-reduce-impacts-from-fire/">temporary refuge for wildlife</a> when <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/bes2.1795">surrounding areas burn</a>.</p>
<h2>Making room for beavers</h2>
<p>The ecological services that beavers provide are most valuable in zones where nobody minds if the landscape changes. But in the densely developed eastern U.S., where I work, it’s hard to find open areas where beaver ponds can spread out without flooding ditches or roads. Beavers also topple expensive landscaped trees and will feed on some cultivated crops, such as <a href="https://agrilife.org/txwildlifeservices/files/2016/07/fs_beaver.pdf">corn and soybeans</a>.</p>
<p>Beavers are frequently blamed for flooding in developed areas, even though <a href="https://www.gazettenet.com/earth-matters-are-beavers-to-blame-for-flooding-damage-41825413">the real problem often is road design, not beaver dams</a>. In such cases, removing the beavers doesn’t solve the problem. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440340/original/file-20220111-19-svgy1g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pipe in the middle of a flooded rural road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440340/original/file-20220111-19-svgy1g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440340/original/file-20220111-19-svgy1g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440340/original/file-20220111-19-svgy1g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440340/original/file-20220111-19-svgy1g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440340/original/file-20220111-19-svgy1g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440340/original/file-20220111-19-svgy1g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440340/original/file-20220111-19-svgy1g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Debris carried by intense rains in July 2021 overtopped a beaver dam (still standing in the background) and washed out this undersized 3-foot culvert in western Massachusetts. It has since been replaced by a more resilient 9-foot structure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Christine Hatch</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/t-d/pubs/pdfpubs/pdf05772830/pdf05772830dpi300.pdf">Culvert guards</a>, fences and other exclusion devices can keep beavers a safe distance from infrastructure and maintain pond heights at a level that won’t flood adjoining areas. Road crossings over streams that are designed to <a href="https://streamcontinuity.org">let fish and other aquatic animals through instead of blocking them</a> are beaver-friendly and will be resilient to climate change and extreme precipitation events. If these structures are large enough to let debris pass through, then beavers will build dams upstream instead, which can help catch floodwaters.</p>
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<p>A growing body of research shows that setting aside pockets of land for beavers is good for wetland ecosystems, biodiversity and rivers. I believe we can learn from beavers’ water management skills, coexist with them in our landscapes and incorporate their natural engineering in response to weather and precipitation patterns disrupted by climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168545/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christine Hatch has trained workers at the Massachusetts Department of Transportation on Rivers and Roads, mainly free of charge as public outreach work.
</span></em></p>Beavers in our landscapes have great potential to provide small-scale adaptations to climate change – if humans can figure out how to live with them.Christine E. Hatch, Professor of Geosciences, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1716602021-11-30T17:03:17Z2021-11-30T17:03:17ZWhy are homes still being built along rivers? Flooded residents disagree on the solution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434533/original/file-20211129-25-1ul7pej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C50%2C5534%2C3400&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of the RCMP return from a boat patrol of a flooded neighbourhood in High River, Alta., on July 4, 2013.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh </span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-are-homes-still-being-built-along-rivers-flooded-residents-disagree-on-the-solution" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Like many residents living near Calgary’s rivers, Irene’s house flooded in June 2013 when heavy rainfall melted the snowpack in the Rocky Mountains, inundating much of southern Alberta in what was, at the time, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/2810070/top-10-most-costly-disasters-in-canadian-history-for-insurers/">the costliest disaster in Canadian history</a>. </p>
<p>Irene watched as her belongings floated down the street. Everything in her basement and the first level of her home had to be discarded into a trash pile in her front yard. </p>
<p>Reflecting on this trauma and her home’s devastation, she said: “Developers get away with a lot of shit they shouldn’t get away with.” She recalled arguing years earlier with the developer about how close to the river it planned to build the houses, and wondered if it might have been worse had her home been built as close to the river as initially planned. </p>
<p>I was part of a team <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/15356841211046265">studying housing, environmental views and hazards</a> who interviewed residents of Calgary’s flood-affected neighbourhoods. Remarks like Irene’s were common.</p>
<p>Calgary and many other cities, including <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/housing-development-in-ste-marthe-sur-le-lac-was-mainly-in-flood-zone">Montréal</a>, <a href="https://www.mapleridgenews.com/news/maple-ridge-council-proceeds-with-riverfront-subdivision/">Vancouver</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2019-10-08/commentary-the-danger-of-development-in-flood-prone-areas">Myrtle Beach</a> and <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Even-after-Harvey-Houston-keeps-adding-new-homes-13285865.php">Houston</a>, continue to build houses in areas that hydrologists and engineers have designated as being high-risk for flooding. </p>
<p>In most jurisdictions, home-builders are not financially liable for flooding for very long. In <a href="https://www.qp.alberta.ca/documents/Acts/n03p2.pdf">Alberta, the window of liability is one year</a>, at which point the risk is transferred to homeowners. Following floods and other disasters, research shows that the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/sof.0.0047">development of new housing does not slow</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/sox054">but intensifies</a>, as flooded properties lose value, are bought by developers and, as memory of flooding fades, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/calgary-home-built-after-alberta-floods-11604521775">become lucrative investments</a>. </p>
<h2>The residents’ point of view</h2>
<p>The residents I spoke with viewed developers as myopic capitalists who choose profit over safety. Scott told me that while developers are responsible for driving the hazard risk, “You can’t blame the developers, they are … there to make bucks, right? And if the city says you can build there then, bingo!… They make a pile.” </p>
<p>Surprisingly, even though their homes had been flooded, residents were not angry at developers for situating the houses close to a hazard. Rather, they were resigned to it. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man wearing a mask and work gloves throws muddy debris into a pile next to a house." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434534/original/file-20211129-19-1bqnj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434534/original/file-20211129-19-1bqnj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434534/original/file-20211129-19-1bqnj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434534/original/file-20211129-19-1bqnj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434534/original/file-20211129-19-1bqnj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434534/original/file-20211129-19-1bqnj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434534/original/file-20211129-19-1bqnj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yahya Abougoush helps clean up his parents’ house in High River, Alta., on July 3, 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When asked what they thought should be done to keep people safe from floods, residents had two very different suggestions. </p>
<h2>Better regulations</h2>
<p>A sizeable group of Calgarians favoured new government regulations limiting development in flood-prone areas to rein in developers. </p>
<p>Rachel said, “They can’t build where the city says they can’t…. It has to be government who says it can’t be done.” </p>
<p>Gary said he believes Calgary’s municipal government “lacks the balls” to stand up to developers and regulate floodplain development. When asked why that was, he said, “It’s about money” and the political influence that developers wield over city council. Residents viewed the municipal government as weak, ineffectual and unwilling to stand up to developers.</p>
<p>Quite often, the same people who argued for better government regulations on floodplain development also insisted that government should provide home buyers with a disclosure of a home’s location in a flood-prone area, a move that the real estate industry has dubbed “idiotic” and one that would “<a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/jeff-goodell/the-water-will-come/9780316260206/">kill the market</a>.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A gravel path and some strips of grass separate a row of homes from a river." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431443/original/file-20211111-27-1w1jkn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431443/original/file-20211111-27-1w1jkn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431443/original/file-20211111-27-1w1jkn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431443/original/file-20211111-27-1w1jkn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431443/original/file-20211111-27-1w1jkn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431443/original/file-20211111-27-1w1jkn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431443/original/file-20211111-27-1w1jkn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New homes in Riverstone, with Bow River visible on the left.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Timothy Haney)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tasha wished she had been informed of the risk prior to buying her home, and told us, “I have lived here for 42 years and I have never heard of ‘flood fringe’ … maybe realtors should be more upfront about that.” </p>
<p>The flood fringe is the area adjacent to the river with measurable flood risk — usually greater than one per cent annual probability of flooding. Angela said any declaration must go beyond a simple disclosure and “explain what it means.” Many preferred this type of new regulation. </p>
<h2>Buyer beware</h2>
<p>As one might expect in Alberta, a place known for <a href="https://press.ucalgary.ca/books/9781773850252/">right-wing populism</a>, other participants pushed back against new regulations and said individuals must bear responsibility. They deferred to the sanctity of private property rights and their distaste for government overreach. They felt that buyers must beware, often mentioning the need for “common sense.” </p>
<p>Caleb said, “I think people can live wherever they want, but I think they have to carry that risk.” Others called it “instinctual.” </p>
<p>Sociologists, like me, are often critical of “common sense,” looking at how such taken-for-granted knowledge is a culturally dependent and contextually specific <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/678271">product of socialization</a>. Still, many Calgarians did not see it this way and did not believe that the government should infringe on private property rights.</p>
<h2>Precaution over profits</h2>
<p>Calgary, like many cities, continues to develop <a href="https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/development-dispute-chaparral-residents-say-proposed-community-would-put-their-homes-at-risk-1.5326215">new housing close to rivers</a>. New neighbourhoods like Riverstone and Quarry Park offer housing marketed for their picturesque living and river access. </p>
<p>In other areas, older homes near the river are being <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/life/homes/condos/white-the-evolution-of-calgarys-infill-housing">razed to make room for infills</a> — usually two or more homes on an existing lot. These infill developments increase the density in river-adjacent communities, putting more residents at risk. </p>
<p>The lack of consensus among the study participants was also noteworthy. Citizen activism tends to get mixed results in influencing government decision-making on development <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13604813.2019.1690337">even when</a> there is <a href="https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295748696/pushed-out/">relative consensus</a>. But in the case of restricting development near rivers, there is no such consensus, which may make it difficult for residents to mobilize. </p>
<p>My own view is that municipal governments must stand up to moneyed development and home-building interests by restricting growth near rivers, which should instead be preserved as green space. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="aerial view of a bend in a river with some elongated islands, several bridges and homes and business developments on each bank." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434535/original/file-20211129-59784-d6hlez.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434535/original/file-20211129-59784-d6hlez.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434535/original/file-20211129-59784-d6hlez.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434535/original/file-20211129-59784-d6hlez.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434535/original/file-20211129-59784-d6hlez.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434535/original/file-20211129-59784-d6hlez.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434535/original/file-20211129-59784-d6hlez.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After floods in 1993 and 1995, and facing future flooding due to climate change, the Dutch city of Nijmegen gave more room to the Waal River during periods of high water by relocating a dike and dredging a new channel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(DaMatriX/Wikimedia)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This approach is often called “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2020.1723604">room for the river</a>,” and is particularly popular in northern and western Europe. With this approach, areas immediately adjacent to waterways are preserved, providing esthetic and recreational value, and people are moved away via buyouts when necessary. New development is restricted. It has been imported and applied in North American cities such as <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/cities-around-globe-eagerly-importing-dutch-speciality-flood-prevention-180973679/">Norfolk, Va.</a>, though with varying degrees of consistency and success. </p>
<p>The more volatile climate we are experiencing as a result of climate change will undoubtedly bring new flood events near rivers and mounting flood losses. Society must work harder to keep people and property away from the water, starting with halting new developments near these hazards. The first step in getting out of a hole, of course, is to stop digging.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171660/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research project described in this article was funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada (grant number 435-2014-1008).</span></em></p>Many cities continue to allow developers to build homes in areas that have a high risk of flooding.Timothy J. Haney, Professor of Sociology and Board of Governors Research Chair in Resilience & Sustainability, Mount Royal UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1578902021-04-04T20:36:50Z2021-04-04T20:36:50ZFloodplains aren’t separate to a river — they’re an extension of it. It’s time to change how we connect with them<p>Dramatic scenes of flood damage to homes, infrastructure and livelihoods have been with us on the nightly news in recent weeks. Many will be feeling the pain for years to come, as they contend with property damage, financial catastrophe and trauma.</p>
<p>But what if, for a moment, we removed the humans and their structures from these tragic images — what would we see? </p>
<p>We would see a natural process of river expansion and contraction, of rivers doing exactly what they’re supposed to do from time to time. We’d see them exceeding what we humans have deemed to be their boundaries and depositing sediment across their floodplains. We’d see reproductive opportunities for fish, frogs, birds and trees. The floods would also enrich the soils. Floods can be catastrophic for humans, but they are a natural part of an ecosystem from which we benefit.</p>
<p>These scenes clearly depict the intersection of humans and nature, and it’s not working out well for either side.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-government-can-clean-up-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-116265">5 ways the government can clean up the Murray-Darling Basin Plan</a>
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<p>We must envision a new way of interacting with floodplains – these brilliant social-ecological systems that are not separate to rivers but rather <em>part</em> of the riverine landscape. </p>
<p>Humans can live on and with floodplains — but the way we do that has to change. </p>
<h2>What is a floodplain?</h2>
<p>Floodplains are relatively flat stretches of land located next to rivers. It helps to think of them as an extension of the river; it is natural and normal for a river to flood their adjacent plains.</p>
<p>Floodplains are composed of sediment the river has transported and then deposited, which makes them incredibly fertile. Flow and sediment regimes interacting over decades — or millennia — determine the physical and ecological character of floodplains, and the way they flood.</p>
<p>There are more than 15 generic floodplain types in Australia. Each harbours a unique set of evolutionary properties, physical features and ecosystems. </p>
<p>These influence the way floodwaters traverse floodplains, how long water remains on a floodplain, the velocity, turbulence and depth of floodwaters, and ecosystem responses to flooding. Floodplains are complex and highly variable.</p>
<p>Floodplains are also dynamic and ever-changing — and we should expect them to change even more in the coming years. Australian rivers have experienced regular periods of increased flood activity in the past 100 years.</p>
<p>And climate change is predicted to increase flood activity. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-government-can-clean-up-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-116265">5 ways the government can clean up the Murray-Darling Basin Plan</a>
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<h2>Humans benefit from floodplains</h2>
<p>Floodplains are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet – they are biodiversity hotspots. </p>
<p>That’s in large part due to periodic flooding between different parts of a river-floodplain system; flooding is crucial to the function of floodplains. Without floods, these floodplains wouldn’t “work” — they would not be able to deliver the ecosystem services we benefit from. Those benefits include, but are not limited to: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>food grown in these fertile soils</p></li>
<li><p>regulation of a balanced ecosystem</p></li>
<li><p>cultural heritage</p></li>
<li><p>transportation (as floodplains are easy to build roads on) </p></li>
<li><p>the supply of good quality drinking water</p></li>
<li><p>recreation.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The economic value of floodplain ecosystem services exceed <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378014000685">US$25,681 per hectare</a>. Roughly <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/44520613?seq=1">25% of global terrestrial ecosystem services</a> come from floodplains. </p>
<p>Humans are drawn to live on floodplains because of their productivity. In Australia, the floodplains of the Murray Darling Basin, heavily developed for agriculture, yield <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/1099-1646%28200009/10%2916%3A5%3C375%3A%3AAID-RRR591%3E3.0.CO%3B2-%23">more than A$10 billion annually</a>. These floodplain ecosystems provide an estimated <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/1099-1646%28200009/10%2916%3A5%3C375%3A%3AAID-RRR591%3E3.0.CO%3B2-%23">A$187 billion per annum</a> from their various ecosystem services.</p>
<p>However, the more we interrupt floodplain processes with development, the more we diminish the supply of ecosystem services. </p>
<h2>The perils of living on floodplains</h2>
<p>Putting the people back into the news footage reveals a social picture that is costly, traumatic and disruptive. The events of the past weeks have now brought into focus the perils of living on floodplains. </p>
<p>Humans have come up with ways to contend with this peril. Dams and levees. Land use planning. Building codes. Engineered floodscapes. Insurance. Emergency preparation systems and community engagement.</p>
<p>But if floodplains are a social-ecological system, where society gains great benefits but is also periodically placed at risk, which side should get the greatest policy attention? The humans or the ecosystem?</p>
<p>The answer is: both. But they also need to be better integrated.</p>
<h2>Balancing the social with the ecological</h2>
<p>Balancing the social and ecological aspects of floodplains requires a mindset change. We must combine community participation with research, resilience and adaptation to make long-term decisions about the future of these complex social-ecological systems. </p>
<p>If society wants to continue to derive the billions of dollars of benefits from floodplains, we need to ensure that flooding continues to occur on floodplains, and adapt to risk in imaginative and innovative ways that also protect the benefits.</p>
<p>Business as usual is not an option. The limitations of technocratic controls such as dams and levees should now be obvious. Time and time again, these have increased flood risk and failed to flood-proof the floodplain.</p>
<p>Rarely do such linear solutions solve complex problems in social-ecological systems. Linear solutions often exacerbate a problem or simply move it on to other parts of the system, creating social inequality, environmental decline and future risk.</p>
<p>The Australian government’s 2018 <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-disaster-risk-reduction-framework.pdf">National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework</a> sets the challenge to join up the built, social, economic and natural environments to address disaster risk in Australia. </p>
<p>Accepting the challenge requires a broader focus on balancing the social-ecological sides of Australia’s vast floodplains. Complexity, not linear thinking, must be embedded in the way we reimagine policy about floodplains and floods. </p>
<p>This requires transformative collaborations between government departments, researchers, business, and community stakeholders.</p>
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<p><em>If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone
you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14. This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157890/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melissa Parsons has received research funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre and the NSW State Emergency Service.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Thoms receives funding from Australian Research Council and the Murray Darling Basin Authority </span></em></p>Floodplains are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet – they are biodiversity hotspots. That’s in large part due to periodic flooding between different parts of a river-floodplain system.Melissa Parsons, Senior Lecturer, Geography and Planning, University of New EnglandMartin Thoms, Professor of Physical Geography, University of New EnglandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1535462021-02-02T16:22:06Z2021-02-02T16:22:06ZParadox lost: wetlands can form in deserts, but we need to find and protect them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381954/original/file-20210202-23-83heet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C65%2C4000%2C2179&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An oasis in the Sahara Desert, Libya.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/umm-alma-lake-idyllic-oasis-awbari-72697231">Patrick Poendl/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Once dismissed as dank and bug-infested backwaters – good only for draining and destroying to make farmland – the world’s wetlands may finally be having their moment in the sun. In the UK, the government is expected to nominate a vast expanse of blanket bogs in the far north of Scotland as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/13/world-heritage-status-for-scottish-peat-bogs-could-help-uk-hit-net-zero-goals">a world heritage site</a>. They might not sound attractive to some people, but these bogs are among the world’s biggest stores of carbon, they provide abundant freshwater and they harbour a miraculous array of wildlife.</p>
<p>This recognition that wetlands are worth protecting has its roots in an agreement signed 50 years ago, on February 2 1971 in Ramsar, Iran. The Ramsar Convention is the only international convention that’s dedicated to protecting a specific ecosystem, though in reality, the “wetlands” that the convention refers to can mean anything from swamps and peat bogs to shallow lakes and estuaries. </p>
<p>So far, 171 countries have signed up to the convention and more than 2,400 sites are protected under it, representing between 10% and 20% of the world’s remaining wetlands and collectively covering an area larger than Mexico. Under the convention, governments are committed to the “wise use” and upkeep of wetlands in their borders, but this doesn’t necessarily keep them safe. Nearly 90% of the world’s wetlands have been <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3261606">lost since 1700</a>, and those which remain are being lost at a rate that’s <a href="https://www.global-wetland-outlook.ramsar.org/">three times faster than forests</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A boat sails past dry grassland with elephants." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381953/original/file-20210202-17-1eoxus8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C54%2C2816%2C1821&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381953/original/file-20210202-17-1eoxus8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381953/original/file-20210202-17-1eoxus8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381953/original/file-20210202-17-1eoxus8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381953/original/file-20210202-17-1eoxus8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381953/original/file-20210202-17-1eoxus8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381953/original/file-20210202-17-1eoxus8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The floodplain wetlands of the Chobe River, on the Botswana-Namibia border.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephen Tooth</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>From agricultural expansion and river diversion to invasive species and climate change, wetlands face numerous threats. But one of the gravest may be ignorance. We still don’t know enough about these habitats, and they can still surprise even seasoned scientists like us. Perhaps most surprising of all are those wetlands that seem to confound all logic by thriving amid some of the driest places on Earth.</p>
<h2>Boom and bust amid the dust</h2>
<p>Drylands are regions of the world where more water evaporates than falls from the sky. Warm drylands cover about <a href="https://www.unep-wcmc.org/resources-and-data/global-drylands--a-un-system-wide-response">40% of the Earth’s surface</a>, but about 28% of this area overlaps with <a href="https://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.291.aspx.pdf">inland rivers and wetlands</a>. The result is marshes, swamps, floodplains, and oases in a landscape where water is otherwise scarce. </p>
<p>Wetlands are especially important in dry landscapes, as they can be the only supply of freshwater and food for people and wildlife for miles around. Some wetlands in drylands are famous. Iraq’s Mesopotamian Marshes (largely believed to be the inspiration for the Garden of Eden) and the Nile River floodplain are both largely surrounded by desert, but it’s here in these Middle Eastern wetlands where modern human civilisation emerged.</p>
<p>For every famous example, there are thousands that remain unidentified and unmapped. That’s partly because these unique habitats change frequently, sometimes vanishing completely before eventually reappearing. Seasonal downpours can sustain these green patches for a while if the soil doesn’t drain well and is particularly good at holding onto the water. Other wetlands in drylands are more permanent thanks to a source of water below ground, with enough seeping to the surface to maintain damp conditions. But some wetlands can lie dormant until they’re reawakened by river flooding and suddenly erupt in vibrant shades of green.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial view of a dry plain on one side and an expanse of green and damp habitat on the other." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381950/original/file-20210202-19-6sw5nu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381950/original/file-20210202-19-6sw5nu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381950/original/file-20210202-19-6sw5nu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381950/original/file-20210202-19-6sw5nu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381950/original/file-20210202-19-6sw5nu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381950/original/file-20210202-19-6sw5nu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381950/original/file-20210202-19-6sw5nu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The riverine woodland and reed swamps of the Macquarie Marshes in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephen Tooth</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many wetlands in drylands are small and temporary, only hosting a thriving ecosystem for a few months following good rains that may occur years or even decades apart. Depending on the scale and their timing, scientific surveys may miss these hidden treasures. The boom-and-bust wetlands that are adapted to emerge following occasional pulses of water are so understudied that we’re in danger of losing them before we even realise their presence and understand their full value.</p>
<p>All wetlands are prone to change over time. Sometimes rivers change their course and switch where floodwaters, sediment and nutrients end up. Older wetlands dry up, while newer ones develop. These changes create a mosaic of different landforms with different grades of wetness and soil types, helping to create a wide range of habitats that support an equally vast range of wildlife. Understanding the processes that give rise to these wetlands can help us maintain them, but the first step must be debunking the idea that such habitats are static, unchanging features of the landscape. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A damp, green patch with small pools surrounded by dry mountain plains." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381959/original/file-20210202-23-1olt4da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381959/original/file-20210202-23-1olt4da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381959/original/file-20210202-23-1olt4da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381959/original/file-20210202-23-1olt4da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381959/original/file-20210202-23-1olt4da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381959/original/file-20210202-23-1olt4da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381959/original/file-20210202-23-1olt4da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Tso Kar lake brings a splash of green to the dry Karakorum mountain plains of India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/view-tso-kar-lake-karakorum-mountains-682951765">Rafal Cichawa/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite some limitations, the Ramsar Convention remains one of the best mechanisms for protecting and highlighting the value of wetlands, even if many still go under the radar. Though there are signs of change. India <a href="https://www.ramsar.org/news/india-adds-a-high-altitude-wetland-complex-to-the-ramsar-list">recently added</a> a complex of shallow lakes high up in a dry mountain to the Ramsar list. Numerous threatened species may benefit from this habitat, including the vulnerable snow leopard. Hopefully other countries will follow suit and recognise more of these rare and beautiful places before it’s too late.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153546/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Tooth received funding from the Universities UK International (UUKi) Rutherford Fund Strategic Partner Grants Programme, the British Council Higher Education Links Grants scheme, and the Aberystwyth University Global Challenges Research Fund.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peyton Lisenby received funding from the Universities UK International (UUKi) Rutherford Fund Strategic Partner Grants Programme as a Rutherford Fellow.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy J. Ralph does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Wetlands in drylands seem impossible, but their benefits to people and wildlife are very real.Stephen Tooth, Professor of Physical Geography, Aberystwyth UniversityPeyton Lisenby, Assistant Professor of Geosciences, Midwestern State UniversityTimothy J. Ralph, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1489392020-11-25T14:54:16Z2020-11-25T14:54:16ZFlooding can help resurrect wetlands and slow climate change – here’s how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371293/original/file-20201125-24-1vd4p9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1376%2C663&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neil Entwistle</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Flooding is known only for the ruin it brings to homes and livelihoods, but targeted flooding, to create or restore floodplain wetlands, is part of the solution to climate change. </p>
<p>That’s because the damp and low-oxygen conditions of wetlands make them very good at slowing the rate at which organic matter decomposes. This ensures the carbon contained in all the plants and animals that die in wetlands stays out of the atmosphere for a long time. </p>
<p>Floodplains are the generally flat and low-lying lands which form around rivers as they deposit sediment. Their permanent or seasonal inundation with flood water gives rise to mosaics of wetland habitats, home to a variety of plants and animals that have adapted to the wet conditions. Allowing these habitats to regenerate could lock up carbon that would otherwise warm the atmosphere and fuel more extreme weather. </p>
<p>Letting floodplain wetlands resume their natural function could change the dynamics of flooding too, slowing the rate of water building up and trapping sediment downstream – a problem which usually causes <a href="https://theconversation.com/changes-to-our-rivers-and-floodplains-have-exacerbated-flooding-52876">flooding in towns and villages</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial view of a flooded field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371109/original/file-20201124-15-idupzu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371109/original/file-20201124-15-idupzu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371109/original/file-20201124-15-idupzu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371109/original/file-20201124-15-idupzu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371109/original/file-20201124-15-idupzu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371109/original/file-20201124-15-idupzu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371109/original/file-20201124-15-idupzu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A floodplain in the process of ‘rewetting’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neil Entwistle</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why we need wetlands</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-gb/Wetlands%2C+5th+Edition-p-9781118676820">Freshwater wetlands</a> only cover about 6% of the Earth’s surface, but they hold up to 30% of all the carbon contained in soil. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235618623_Wetlands_carbon_and_climate_change">Estimates</a> suggest that the world’s wetlands absorb about 830 million metric tonnes of carbon each year, retaining 118g per square metre on average. The temperate wetlands of the UK are particularly good at this, accumulating carbon at average rates of 278g per square metre per year.</p>
<p>Wetlands are also among the Earth’s most <a href="https://www.ramsar.org/sites/default/files/documents/library/strp19_4_bn7_e.pdf">biodiverse ecosystems</a>. Approximately 40% of the world’s species make their home in them. Unfortunately, these habitats are also among the most threatened. Between 1970 and 2015, 35% of wetlands were lost to changing land and water use. Globally, more than 25% of all wetland plants and animals are at risk of extinction, including <a href="https://butterfly-conservation.org/butterflies/marsh-fritillary">the marsh fritillary</a>, <a href="https://www.buglife.org.uk/bugs/bug-directory/tadpole-shrimp/">the tadpole shrimp</a> and <a href="https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/wildlife-guides/bird-a-z/curlew/">the curlew</a>, which are all threatened or endangered <a href="https://www.wwt.org.uk/news/2020/03/12/10-endangered-species-that-make-wetlands-their-home/18647/">in the UK</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An orange, black and white patterned butterfly on a purple thistle flower." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371110/original/file-20201124-17-q8jwl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371110/original/file-20201124-17-q8jwl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371110/original/file-20201124-17-q8jwl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371110/original/file-20201124-17-q8jwl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371110/original/file-20201124-17-q8jwl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371110/original/file-20201124-17-q8jwl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371110/original/file-20201124-17-q8jwl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marsh fritillary butterflies have vanished from 79% of their former UK haunts since the 1970s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sharpphotography.co.uk/">Charles J Sharp</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0341816218305058#bb0290">The UK’s wetland habitats</a> would have originally covered two million hectares of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/lowlands">lowland</a> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/floodplains">floodplains</a>. They had already shrunk by about 86% to just 274,000 hectares by the 1980s. Of this, only 46,600 hectares were afforded some degree of protection. Everywhere else, wetlands were <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/ecology">drained or filled</a> to build farms, roads and settlements.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0341816218305058">Our own research</a> has revealed the near complete destruction of fen, marsh and swamp habitats on floodplains across England. On the 555 floodplains we studied, 85% of rivers had no wetland associated with them at all.</p>
<h2>Restoring floodplains</h2>
<p>Encouraged through government grants, underground drainage pipes are common across floodplains in England. These quickly transfer rainfall into rivers and drains, preventing the natural waterlogging of floodplain soils. Over several decades, river tributaries have been rerouted to flow along valley edges, drying out wetland areas even further. </p>
<p>Naturally functioning floodplains, where the river floods the surrounding land on average once every couple of years, behave quite differently. River tributaries snake throughout the landscape, creating a network of marshes, fens, swamps and bog, which spread flood water and energy more widely. Gravel is dispersed across the floodplain floor and never makes it into the main river and, so is prevented from flowing through to flood-prone urban areas downstream.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371106/original/file-20201124-21-c1t6yb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two images depicting the transformation of farmland to wet floodplain." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371106/original/file-20201124-21-c1t6yb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371106/original/file-20201124-21-c1t6yb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371106/original/file-20201124-21-c1t6yb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371106/original/file-20201124-21-c1t6yb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371106/original/file-20201124-21-c1t6yb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371106/original/file-20201124-21-c1t6yb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371106/original/file-20201124-21-c1t6yb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wet floodplain is restored around the River Lowther in Cumbria, UK.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neil Entwistle</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://aquauos.salford.ac.uk/">Our recent work</a> restoring floodplains in the <a href="https://restorerivers.eu/wiki/index.php?title=Case_study%3ASwindale_Beck_Restoration">Lake District</a> showed how the simplest changes to drainage can have dramatic effects on the wetness of floodplains, and how well they store sediment. </p>
<p>Blocking certain engineered river channels and breaking underground drains immediately transfers permanently flowing water onto the floodplain. This water naturally resumes old flow routes and restarts the process of storing sediment on land, rather than moving it rapidly downstream. Restoring features of the river bed that were dredged out, such as riffles and rapids, helps bring the water table nearer to the surface and rejuvenate dormant wetlands. Digging up dried up ponds increases the number of places where water can seep out of river channels. The result is a patchwork of open water within a wider, boggy landscape, which acts like a sponge for greenhouse gases that can hold and dissipate flood waters.</p>
<p>These cheap interventions are already bringing back wetlands across the floodplains of the Lake District in Cumbria. This work can complement the push to reforest and restore ecosystems to absorb CO₂. A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2784-9">study</a> suggested that restoring 15% of the world’s lost wetlands could lock up 30% of the total increase in atmospheric CO₂ since the Industrial Revolution, while preventing 60% of expected species extinctions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367043/original/file-20201102-23-69wkpq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An image of a newly dug pond above before and after images of a floodplain with ponds near the main river." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367043/original/file-20201102-23-69wkpq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367043/original/file-20201102-23-69wkpq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367043/original/file-20201102-23-69wkpq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367043/original/file-20201102-23-69wkpq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367043/original/file-20201102-23-69wkpq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=668&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367043/original/file-20201102-23-69wkpq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=668&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367043/original/file-20201102-23-69wkpq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=668&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Restoring ponds on floodplains creates new habitats and offers another release valve for flood water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neil Entwistle</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But none of these benefits are possible without changing how people currently use and manage floodplains. Allowing rivers to properly flood floodplains again will mean “rewetting” some <a href="http://www.lra.co.uk/services/soil-survey-soil-mapping/agricultural-land-grades">low-grade farmland</a> and compensating some landowners. Farming practices will have to adapt to wetter conditions, by changing livestock or grazing patterns.</p>
<p>But it would mean <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/restoring-rivers-for-people-and-wildlife">flooding reaches a lower peak</a> when it does occur, and a lower flood risk to communities downstream. The widespread return of freshwater wetlands across the UK would also make everyone less vulnerable to flooding in the long run, by helping stabilise the climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148939/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Entwistle receives funding from UKRI.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Heritage receives funding from UKRI. He works for AquaUoS at the University of Salford. </span></em></p>Flooding isn’t always destructive – it can be part of our toolkit for restoring ecosystems.Neil Entwistle, Reader in River Science, University of SalfordGeorge Heritage, Honorary Research Fellow in Hydromorphology, University of SalfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1467282020-09-24T19:10:14Z2020-09-24T19:10:14ZHomes are flooding outside FEMA’s 100-year flood zones, and racial inequality is showing through<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359877/original/file-20200924-20-1400ezi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=291%2C354%2C2299%2C1612&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Harvey showed the racial disparities in flood damage outside Houston's 100-year flood zones.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-wait-to-be-rescued-from-their-flooded-homes-after-news-photo/840245708">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When hurricanes and other extreme storms unleash downpours like Tropical Storm Beta has been doing in the South, the floodwater doesn’t always stay within the government’s flood risk zones.</p>
<p>New research suggests that nearly twice as many properties are at risk from a 100-year flood today than the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s flood maps indicate. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, many of the people living in those properties have no idea that their homes are at risk until the floodwaters rise.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=SmYUxIEAAAAJ&hl=en">sociologist who works on disaster vulnerability</a>. In a new study, I looked at the makeup of communities in Houston that aren’t in the 100-year flood zone, but that still flood. What I found tells a story of racial disparities in the city. Research in other cities has shown <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/25381/chapter/4">similar flooding problems</a> in predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods. </p>
<p>Poor stormwater infrastructure, expanding urbanization and limited flood mitigation efforts are a few of the reasons why.</p>
<h2>Flooding outside the zones</h2>
<p>About <a href="https://furmancenter.org/files/Floodplain_PopulationBrief_12DEC2017.pdf">15 million</a> Americans live in FEMA’s current 100-year flood zones. The designation warns them that their properties face a 1% risk of flooding in any given year. They must obtain flood insurance if they want a federally ensured loan – insurance that helps them recover from flooding.</p>
<p>In Greater Houston, however, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01840.x">47% of claims</a> made to FEMA across three decades before Hurricane Harvey were outside of the 100-year flood zones. Harris County, recognizing that FEMA flood maps don’t capture the full risk, now <a href="https://www.hcfcd.org/floodinsurance">recommends that every household</a> in Houston and the rest of the county have flood insurance.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman puts her daughter's shoe on after they were rescued from a flooded apartment complex." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Harris County, home to Houston, now recommends all households have flood insurance, whether they’re in a FEMA flood zone or not.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SevereWeatherTexas/4fe6ec4e1f7c4e328e50cf71f3f3606d/photo">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>New risk models point to a similar conclusion: Flood risk in these areas outstrips expectations in the current FEMA flood maps.</p>
<p>One of those models, from the <a href="https://firststreet.org/flood-lab/research/2020-national-flood-risk-assessment-highlights/">First Street Foundation</a>, estimates that the number of properties at risk in a 100-year storm is 1.7 times higher than the FEMA maps suggest. Other <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaac65">researchers</a> find an even higher margin, with 2.6 to 3.1 times more people exposed to serious flooding in a 100-year storm than FEMA estimates.</p>
<h2>What FEMA’s flood maps miss</h2>
<p>Understanding why areas outside the 100-year flood zones are flooding more often than the FEMA maps suggest involves larger social and environmental issues. Three reasons stand out.</p>
<p>First, some places rely on relatively old FEMA maps that don’t account for recent urbanization.</p>
<p>Urbanization matters because impervious surfaces – think pavement and buildings – are not effective sponges like natural landscapes can be. Moreover, the process for updating floodplain maps is locally variable and can take years to complete. Famously, New York City was updating its maps when Hurricane Sandy hit in 2012 but hadn’t finished, meaning flood maps in effect <a href="https://projects.propublica.org/nyc-flood/">were from 1983</a>. FEMA is required to assess whether updates are needed every five years, but the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/cis/nation.html">majority of maps</a> <a href="https://www.oig.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/assets/2017/OIG-17-110-Sep17.pdf">are older</a>.</p>
<p>Second, binary thinking can lead people to an underaccounting of risk, and that can mean communities fail to take steps that could protect a neighborhood from flooding. The logic goes: if I’m not in the 100-year floodplain, then I’m not at risk. Risk perception <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab195a">research</a> backs this up. FEMA-delineated flood zones are the major factor shaping flood mitigation behaviors.</p>
<p>Third, the era of climate change scuttles conventional assumptions.</p>
<p>As the planet warms, extreme storms are becoming <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/">more common and severe</a>. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at a high rate, computer models suggest that the chances of a severe storm dropping 20 inches of rain on Texas in any given year will increase from about 1% at the end of the last century to 18% at the end of this one, a chance of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716222114">once every 5.5 years</a>. So far, <a href="https://www.rstreet.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/195.pdf">FEMA hasn’t taken into account the impact climate change is having</a> on extreme weather and sea level rise.</p>
<h2>Racial disparities in flooding outside the zones</h2>
<p>So, who is at risk?</p>
<p>Years of research and evidence from storms have highlighted social inequalities in areas with a high risk of flooding. But most local governments have less understanding of the social and demographic composition of communities that experience flood impacts outside of flood zones.</p>
<p>In analyzing the damage from Hurricane Harvey in the Houston area, I found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba0fe">Black and Hispanic residents disproportionately experienced flooding</a> in areas beyond FEMA’s 100-year flood zones.</p>
<p>With the majority of flooding from Hurricane Harvey occurring outside of 100-year flood zones, this meant that the overall impact of Harvey was racially unequal too.</p>
<p>Research into where flooding occurs in Baltimore, Chicago and Phoenix points to some of the potential causes. <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/25381/chapter/4#16">In Baltimore and Chicago</a>, for example, aging storm and sewer infrastructure, poor construction and insufficient efforts to mitigate flooding are part of the flooding problem in some predominantly Black neighborhoods. </p>
<h2>What can be done about it</h2>
<p>Better accounting for those three reasons could substantively improve risk assessments and help cities prioritize infrastructure improvements and flood mitigation projects in these at-risk neighborhoods.</p>
<p>For example, First Street Foundation’s risk maps account for <a href="https://firststreet.org/flood-lab/research/flood-model-methodology_overview/">climate change</a> and present <a href="https://floodfactor.com/">ratings</a> on a scale from 1 to 10. FEMA, which works with communities to update flood maps, is <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1521054297905-ca85d066dddb84c975b165db653c9049/TMAC_2017_Annual_Report_Final508(v8)_03-12-2018.pdf">exploring rating systems</a>. And the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine recently <a href="https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2019/03/new-report-calls-for-different-approaches-to-predict-and-understand-urban-flooding">called for a new generation of flood maps</a> that takes climate change into account. </p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Including recent urbanization in those assessments will matter too, especially in fast-growing cities like Houston, where <a href="https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1boBRyDvMFW6W">386 new square miles</a> of impervious surfaces were created in the last 20 years. That’s greater than the land area of New York City. New construction in one area can also <a href="https://scalawagmagazine.org/2018/01/city-in-a-swamp-as-houston-booms-its-flood-problems-are-only-getting-worse/">impact older neighborhoods downhill</a> during a flood, as some Houston communities discovered in Hurricane Harvey.</p>
<p>Improving risk assessments is needed not just to better prepare communities for major flood events, but also to prevent racial inequalities – in housing and beyond – from <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/03/05/688786177/how-federal-disaster-money-favors-the-rich">growing</a> after the unequal impacts of disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin T. Smiley receives funding from an Early-Career Fellowship from Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and is supported as a Fellow in the Enabling Program for the Next Generation of Hazards and Disasters Researchers as part of the National Science Foundation's Humans, Disasters, and the Built Environment program.</span></em></p>New risk models show nearly twice as many properties are at risk from a 100-year flood today than the government’s flood maps indicate.Kevin T. Smiley, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Louisiana State University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1378502020-05-21T21:58:58Z2020-05-21T21:58:58ZFort McMurray’s flood disaster was foreseeable and preventable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336581/original/file-20200520-152298-1t0dvlg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C22%2C2905%2C1967&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flood waters surround Keyano College and Fort McMurray Composite High School in late April 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Greg Halinda</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Floods are ‘acts of God,’ but flood disasters are largely acts of man.” </p>
<p>Geographer <a href="https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/climate/docs/Human_Adj_Floods_White.pdf">Gilbert White wrote these words 75 years ago</a> and yet they seem especially prescient in the wake of flooding in Fort McMurray, Alta., in April, almost <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-flood-fire-anniversary-1.5554195">four years after the wildfire and flooding</a> that ravaged the northern community in 2016. </p>
<p>Waterways, a neighbourhood in Fort McMurray, lies close to the Clearwater River that runs past the town. It was largely destroyed by the 2016 wildfire and was <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-council-approves-rebuilding-in-flood-prone-waterways/">rebuilt</a> in the floodplain despite the known risk. </p>
<p>When <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6905367/fort-mcmurray-flood-electrical-grid-may/">Fort McMurray flooded again in May</a>, about 13,000 people were evacuated and one person died. The <a href="https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/100m-in-damage-caused-in-fort-mcmurray-flood-mayor-estimates-1.4923752">estimated cost of this year’s damage is $100 million</a>.</p>
<p>Disaster scholars and emergency managers argue that natural hazards like flooding are inevitable. But disasters are often the result of planning decisions that put people and property in harm’s way. </p>
<h2>Building and rebuilding in the floodway</h2>
<p>Although little could be done to prevent the ice jam that caused this spring’s flooding, it was the <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-council-approves-rebuilding-in-flood-prone-waterways/">city council that approved the construction</a> of an <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2397825796">arena</a>, a <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/fort-mcmurray-long-term-care-centre-moving-downtown/">long-term care centre for seniors</a>, <a href="https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/flooding-insurance-is-optional-and-may-not-have-been-available-to-fort-mcmurray-residents-experts-1.4919016">homes</a> and public infrastructure in the floodway and designated flood hazard areas. As a result, many of the houses and an <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/condo-complex-lougheed-estates-fort-mcmurray-insurance-1.5427133">$80-million condominium complex</a> were not eligible for flood insurance. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334104/original/file-20200511-30864-10b1oui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334104/original/file-20200511-30864-10b1oui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334104/original/file-20200511-30864-10b1oui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334104/original/file-20200511-30864-10b1oui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334104/original/file-20200511-30864-10b1oui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334104/original/file-20200511-30864-10b1oui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334104/original/file-20200511-30864-10b1oui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334104/original/file-20200511-30864-10b1oui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Flood hazard map of Fort McMurray, Alta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Andrea Minano, University of Waterloo)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>After a flood, it is common for observers to blame nature rather than acknowledge the human decisions that contributed to the situation. During the flooding in Fort McMurray, for instance, a former political leader said, “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-the-tuesday-edition-1.5547108/first-fires-now-flooding-former-fort-mcmurray-mla-brian-jean-suffers-loss-of-2nd-home-1.5547898">Mother Nature and God are in control</a>.” </p>
<p>Framing the flooding as an act of God wrongly absolves government of its responsibility to limit development in the designated floodway or require extensive flood mitigation and flood-proofing of buildings. </p>
<h2>Attempts to prevent floodway development</h2>
<p>There have been several attempts to prevent building in Alberta’s floodways. After the 2005 floods, the <a href="http://www.aema.alberta.ca/images/News/Provincial_Flood_Mitigation_Report.pdf">Groeneveld report</a> discouraged developments in flood-prone areas, but these recommendations were ignored throughout Alberta and the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.1300859">report was suppressed</a> by the Alberta government. The <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/recommendations-from-2005-alberta-flood-still-relevant-today/article12771618/">draft Flood Mitigation Report (published in 2002) made similar recommendations and was also not released</a>. </p>
<p>After the 2013 floods, a provincial <a href="http://www.municipalaffairs.alberta.ca/documents/ms/Floodway_Reg_DiscussionPaper.pdf">Floodway Development Regulation</a> was developed but never implemented, so municipalities are still able to build in flood-prone areas. Even without regulations, the provincial government could have prevented floodway development in Alberta <a href="https://www.qp.alberta.ca/documents/Acts/w03.pdf">under the Water Act</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336582/original/file-20200520-152292-1h3bp4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336582/original/file-20200520-152292-1h3bp4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336582/original/file-20200520-152292-1h3bp4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336582/original/file-20200520-152292-1h3bp4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336582/original/file-20200520-152292-1h3bp4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336582/original/file-20200520-152292-1h3bp4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336582/original/file-20200520-152292-1h3bp4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336582/original/file-20200520-152292-1h3bp4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Downtown Calgary flooded in June 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many recommendations on prevention and nonstructural flood mitigation, such as land-use regulations, updated flood hazard maps and mandatory buyouts or relocation, from the <a href="https://www.oag.ab.ca/reports/report-auditor-general-march-2015">Auditor General of Alberta</a>, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer and Canadian flood experts have not been acted on. Meanwhile, disaster assistance costs continue to increase. </p>
<p>Between 1970 and 2014, <a href="https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/DFAA">Alberta received more than $2.3 billion — more than any other province — from the Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements (DFAA)</a>, a federal program that reimburses provinces for a portion of disaster response and recovery costs, for weather-related disasters. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/to-stop-natural-events-from-becoming-disasters-in-alberta-we-must-take-action/article31298372/">It is then not surprising that Alberta has been labelled “ground zero” for catastrophic losses in Canada</a>.</p>
<p>Criticism has been directed at the Alberta government for failing to address flooding vulnerabilities, but critics tend to overlook the complex sociopolitical dynamics on the ground. <a href="http://www.aema.alberta.ca/images/News/Provincial_Flood_Mitigation_Report.pdf">Municipalities</a>, <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Province+alters+plan+land+titles+homes+floodways+flood+fringes/8799822/story.html">homeowner associations</a>, lobby groups, <a href="https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/documents/PB%20No.131_0.pdf">the real estate industry</a>, developers and <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/release.cfm?xID=347858816FF6B-0637-0C70-67A4897E699D4A55">private industry</a> have all pushed back on measures to reduce flood damage, including development regulations, <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/release.cfm?xID=347858816FF6B-0637-0C70-67A4897E699D4A55">flood risk notification on land titles</a>, making more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2020.1723604">room for rivers</a> and <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/documents-show-many-cities-wary-of-mapping-publicizing-flood-risks">updating flood risk maps</a>.</p>
<h2>Unfair financial burden</h2>
<p>Albertans and Canadians will be subsidizing the flooding damage in Fort McMurray via disaster assistance payments, taxes, insurance increases and finances diverted from other services. A few powerful stakeholder groups profit from floodway development, increasing vulnerability and injustice to the rest of society through a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/sof.0.0126">circular liability crisis</a>”: those who are harmed (property owners or renters) by flooding shoulder the costs and are legally unable to receive liability settlements from those who made development in flood-prone areas possible. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-floods-we-can-pay-now-or-later-96160">Urban floods: We can pay now or later</a>
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<p>This misalignment in risk apportionment does not meet the <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/mrgnc-mngmnt/dsstr-prvntn-mtgtn/ndmp/index-en.aspx">basic principles of fairness and accountability articulated in Canada’s National Disaster Mitigation Strategy</a>. </p>
<p>To remedy this unfair burden on taxpayers, <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/partners-for-action/sites/ca.partners-for-action/files/uploads/files/canadian_voices_on_changing_flood_risk_fnl_0.pdf">we need an equal playing field where information on flood risk is widely known and public</a>. Citizens concerned about the growing risks of flooding and climate change could then hold governments and developers to account for decisions that benefit them but cost homeowners. </p>
<p>There are a growing number of <a href="https://www.intactcentreclimateadaptation.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Weathering-the-Storm.pdf">class action lawsuits launched by residents against their municipal governments</a> for poor planning and infrastructure negligence which resulted in flooding damage for homeowners, most recently in <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/laval-residents-affected-by-flooding-request-class-action-lawsuit-1.4759367">Laval</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/sainte-marthe-class-action-flooding-montreal-suburb-1.5123293">Sainte-Marthe-sur-le-Lac</a> in Québec.</p>
<p>To prevent avoidable flooding damage in the future, we need an informed public that understands the true source of flood risk — building in known flood-prone areas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137850/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eva A. (Evalyna) Bogdan receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) and Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction and Response (MEOPAR). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Henstra receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction and Response (MEOPAR).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Thistlethwaite receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC). He is affiliated with Partners for Action. </span></em></p>Blaming flooding on an act of God wrongly absolves government and developers of their liability for poor decisions that unfairly burden taxpayers.Eva Angelyna (Evalyna) Bogdan, Postdoctoral research fellow, Political Science, University of WaterlooDaniel Henstra, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of WaterlooJason Thistlethwaite, Assistant Professor, Environment, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1324682020-02-27T14:03:34Z2020-02-27T14:03:34ZHousebuilding ban on floodplains isn’t enough – flood-prone communities should take back control<p>February 2020 has brought more than its fair share of bad weather to the north of England, the Midlands and Wales. Shrewsbury, Bewdley and Telford swam in the Severn, while the Ouse invaded York. For some, the adage that it’s grim up north rang true.</p>
<p>The recent flooding is a reminder that all parts of the UK are vulnerable to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-register-of-civil-emergencies-2017-edition">natural hazards</a>, and the costs aren’t just economic. Flood water can enter a building in minutes, but the impact on communities can last years. Flooded homes and businesses take months to clean up and dry out, and the <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-016-4000-2">long-term impact on the health</a> and relationships of those affected is often overlooked.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/get-used-to-flooding-climate-change-will-bring-more-of-it-23198">Climate change has made some types of floods</a> more likely, but past government policy has ensured that the ensuing crises are worse than they might otherwise have been. While there’s an urgent need for new homes, <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/2019/02/21/uk-homes-unfit-for-the-challenges-of-climate-change-ccc-says/">1.8 million people</a> currently live in areas at significant risk of flooding, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/24/end-housebuilding-on-flood-plains-labour">homes are still being built on floodplains</a>.</p>
<p>The chief executive of the Environment Agency, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/defusing-the-weather-bomb-the-future-of-flood-defence">Sir James Bevan, argued</a> that if we must <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22129572-800-uk-must-abandon-or-adapt-in-face-of-floods/">build in the floodplain</a>, homes should be built with garages on the ground floor and living space upstairs, to ensure floods cause minimal damage. This might sound radical, but some of the oldest buildings along Britain’s rivers and coastline, such as millhouses and warehouses, have stone floors and steps up to first floor entrances. They were designed hundreds of years ago to ensure their occupants could ride out intermittent flooding. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317582/original/file-20200227-24694-tcsf2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317582/original/file-20200227-24694-tcsf2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317582/original/file-20200227-24694-tcsf2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317582/original/file-20200227-24694-tcsf2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317582/original/file-20200227-24694-tcsf2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317582/original/file-20200227-24694-tcsf2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317582/original/file-20200227-24694-tcsf2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Old millhouses – like this building in the US – are often raised above ground level, in anticipation of flooding.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/county-park-raleigh-nc-1546072121">StudioKismet/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Climate change may force countries, such as the UK, to adopt radical practices from parts of the world that flood more frequently, such as houses that are <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/a-floating-house-to-resist-the-floods-of-climate-change">designed to float when floods come</a>, rising on stilts as the water rises. It’s an idea that is familiar to those living in stilt houses beside the Amazon river, and it’s also found <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/14859658.how-floating-dutch-homes-simply-rise-with-the-floodwater/">favour in the Netherlands</a>.</p>
<p>For those who already live on the floodplain, there are <a href="http://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&edid=659cb024-a5d5-4004-acbf-1d9236228817">less dramatic but important adaptations</a> that can be made. Internally reinforced, mechanically sealable flood doors can be installed to keep water out. Carpets and wooden floorboards that soak up dirty flood waters can be swapped for waterproof concrete and stone-slab floors. Electrical sockets can be raised and non-return valves can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-in-a-flooded-british-town-were-told-to-stop-flushing-the-toilet-119115">fitted to toilets to stop sewage filling homes</a> when it floods.</p>
<h2>Communities that can weather floods</h2>
<p>Making Britain more resilient to floods is not just a task for individuals. The government now has an opportunity to prove its <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-boris-johnsons-promise-to-revitalise-the-north-could-come-back-to-haunt-him-129933">long-term commitment to the north of England</a> in particular, by creating detailed plans to increase resilience to floods. Backing the HS2 railway and moving the House of Lords out of London might grab headlines, but making sure the region is resilient in the face of future flooding requires less glamorous investment.</p>
<p>It’s equally important that money isn’t just thrown at the areas that were flooded last – or which might have voted Conservative in the last election. Every flooded community, no matter where they are in the country, deserves support, and managing flood risk is about more than just installing large flood defences or water-proofing homes. A <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/letter-flood-and-coastal-resilience-standards/">long-term approach requires policies</a> that link the necessary changes in land use, agriculture, housing and development.</p>
<p>Part of this could give communities the power to take control of their own destiny by creating regional flood forums, giving residents’ groups a say in how communities prepare for and respond to floods. Too many people are left with the impression that the government, or other distant authorities, can be trusted with sole responsibility for preventing flooding, and are then left feeling powerless and abandoned when floods happen. </p>
<p>It’s essential that everyone who lives in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/21/dams-wellies-and-sleepless-nights-yorkshire-calder-valley-flooding">or moves to an area</a> at risk of flooding <a href="https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/long-term-flood-risk">knows that the risk of flooding is real</a>. It’s difficult to imagine that your home could be flooded if you have never seen water lapping at your front door or rising up your kitchen cabinets. This is especially true for those living in properties that don’t immediately border running water. </p>
<p>But the historical record tells us that even before modern climate change, big floods have always happened. And floods are like buses, sometimes nothing happens for ages and then several come, one after the other. Flood risk maps <a href="https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/long-term-flood-risk">exist</a>, but the message is not getting through to those who need them. </p>
<p>Perhaps flood risk should come to be seen like earthquake risk zones in other countries. It would mean public signs clearly positioned to show that you are in a flood zone and that there is danger to life, health and property. It would ensure that strong building regulations are adhered to and school lessons are specifically devoted to knowing how to keep people safe. </p>
<p>We certainly need new ideas for connecting people with the realities of living with climate change. Ensuring that everyone can find out about their flood risk, shape decision-making on land management, and adapt their homes accordingly could empower people to prepare for the floods that will inevitably come.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1132468">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132468/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Cloke advises the Environment Agency on flood risk and flood forecasting. She works with local flood groups and advises local and national government and humanitarian agencies on flood emergencies. Her flood research is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and the European Commission's Horizon 2020 programme.</span></em></p>Residents need the necessary support to adapt their homes and make collective decisions about flood prevention.Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1253232019-11-14T15:31:21Z2019-11-14T15:31:21ZBotswana’s Okavango Delta is created by a delicate balance, but for how much longer?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298346/original/file-20191023-119438-1dnmgaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Delta's rich array of wildlife makes it a popular tourist destination</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ger Metselaar/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Okavango Delta in northern Botswana is a mosaic of water paths, floodplains and arid islands. The delta sits in the Okavango river basin, which spans three African countries: Angola, Namibia and Botswana.</p>
<p>Because it’s an oasis, in a semi-arid area, it hosts a rich array of plants and attracts a huge variety of wildlife.</p>
<p>As a unique ecosystem, in 2014 it <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1432/">was placed</a> on UNESCO’s World Heritage list and it is an iconic tourist destination, which <a href="https://www.wttc.org/about/media-centre/press-releases/press-releases/2019/botswana-tourism-now-accounts-for-one-in-seven-of-all-dollars-in-the-economy/">generates</a> 13% of Botswana’s GDP.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298349/original/file-20191023-119438-prx01q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298349/original/file-20191023-119438-prx01q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298349/original/file-20191023-119438-prx01q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298349/original/file-20191023-119438-prx01q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298349/original/file-20191023-119438-prx01q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298349/original/file-20191023-119438-prx01q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298349/original/file-20191023-119438-prx01q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Aerial view of the Okavango Delta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vadim Petrakov/Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>But it’s a fragile natural area. It’s controlled by deformations of the Earth’s crust over a long time (thousands to millions of years) and by annual water flows and evaporation. The size of the flooded delta from year to year varies between 3,500km² and 9,000km² because of weather fluctuations which control its water supply.</p>
<p>Any change to the processes that form the delta will have an impact on the wildlife and local economic activities. Its grassy floodplains <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11273-015-9430-6">are food</a> for grazing animals in the dry period. Losses of this habitat will cause declines in wildlife and livestock. It’s therefore imperative to understand what creates and sustains the delta for the future management of the system. </p>
<p>We have conducted several studies that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03736245.2018.1541021">cover</a> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040195117302433">how the</a> Okavango basin was formed and the way dissolved chemicals <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40980418?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">are withdrawn</a> from the delta’s surface.</p>
<p>The dynamic history of the Okavango Delta’s waterways and floodplains tells us that the interplay between geology, water and plants makes the delta resilient, but vulnerable. </p>
<p>Some imminent changes are expected that are of concern. One is higher temperatures, which will <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-540-77843-1_11">boost</a> evaporation and transpiration. Another is the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecohyd.2016.09.005">pumping of water</a> for <a href="http://www.the-eis.com/data/literature/Technical%20Report%20on%20Irrigation%20Development%20in%20the%20Namibia%20Section%20of%20the%20Okavango%20River%20Basin_2009_Liebenberg.pdf">irrigation</a> in Namibia. Both of these changes <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/wsa/article/view/180658">will reduce</a> the water needed to sustain the delta’s floodplains. </p>
<h2>An oasis</h2>
<p>The Okavango Delta is a generally flat area which is under constant change with phases of flooding and drying. A variety of geographical and natural processes have formed it and sustain it. </p>
<p>It’s in a depression which was created by fault lines cutting the Earth’s surface. This means water flows into it. The fault lines are created by the spread of the East African Rift – a major fracture, created over millions of years, which crosses the eastern part of Africa.</p>
<p>The origin of the islands in the delta is attributed to two mechanisms: the construction of termite mound spires; and formation of elevated ridges where former channels deposited sand. Both act as the starting point for vegetation to take root.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298350/original/file-20191023-119419-mp4xtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298350/original/file-20191023-119419-mp4xtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298350/original/file-20191023-119419-mp4xtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298350/original/file-20191023-119419-mp4xtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298350/original/file-20191023-119419-mp4xtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298350/original/file-20191023-119419-mp4xtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298350/original/file-20191023-119419-mp4xtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Termite mound in the delta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">PIXEL to the PEOPLE/Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>The water supply comes from the Cubango and Cuito rivers in Angola. This reaches the delta between March and June and peaks in July. There’s also local rainfall in the Okavango area from November to February (about 450mm a year) which adds to this. </p>
<p><a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gssa/sajg/article/116/1/1/141400/THE-OKAVANGO-DELTA-AND-ITS-PLACE-IN-THE">About 98%</a> of the water that goes into the delta is eventually lost through evaporation and plant transpiration, when water moves through the plant and evaporates from leaves, stems and flowers.</p>
<p>Even though the subtropical sun generates intense evaporation, the delta’s water is fresh, not salty. This is surprising because water samples from the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883292706001223">middle parts</a> of the islands have very high chemical and salt concentrations. This chemical concentration occurs in thousands of islands.</p>
<p>The reason the water is fresh is that trees on the edges of the islands have created a barrier of natural filters between the inner part of the islands and the floodplain. </p>
<h2>Possible changes</h2>
<p>The Okavango Delta is continually being shaped by complex interactions of natural processes. If something happens to change the balance of these processes, it could destabilise the system. </p>
<p>The most important dynamic for the delta is inflowing water. The two main rivers in Angola, the Cubango and the Cuito, join to form the Okavango river, which feeds the delta. These two rivers are hydrologically quite different. The Cubango, to the west, first flows rapidly down steep, narrow paths characterised by incised valleys, rapids, waterfalls and valley swamps. The Cuito, to the east, with shallow valleys and large floodplains, gets its water from groundwater seepage. </p>
<p>The manipulation of these rivers – in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecohyd.2016.09.005">form of dams and irrigation</a> – will affect the water flow and change its annual distribution. Both of these form part of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.039">current</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.888069">future development</a> planning in Angola and Namibia.</p>
<p>A decrease in water supply will affect the vegetation growth and the wildlife. An increase in water would inundate the islands and could dissolve the salts at the centre of them, releasing chemical elements that would change the water quality.</p>
<p>In addition to declines in water flow induced by global warming and human activities, ground deformation is also happening because of shifting continental plates. This could change the paths of the water flowing by changing the ground slopes. Measurements of ground deformation with Global Positioning Systems <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040195117302433">displays</a> reveal very slight changes in local slopes that can modify the paths of the water flowing to the delta.</p>
<p>To sustain the Okavango Delta it’s imperative that management integrate all the components of the system. All governments are involved and must integrate scientific expertise, from upstream catchment to downstream Delta.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125323/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Murray-Hudson receives funding from the University of Botswana for monitoring island groundwater and earth surface deformation in the Okavango Delta.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olivier Dauteuil a reçu des financements de l'université de Rennes 1 et du CNRS. </span></em></p>It’s imperative that we understand what creates and sustains the delta for the future management of the system.Michael Murray-Hudson, Senior Research Fellow, Okavango Research Institute, University of BotswanaOlivier Dauteuil, Directeur de Recherche au CNRS, Université de Rennes 1 - Université de RennesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1268662019-11-13T13:14:17Z2019-11-13T13:14:17ZWhy flooding is still so difficult to predict and prepare for<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301529/original/file-20191113-77326-150d4yj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4546%2C3055&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/edinburgh-uk-november-3-2019-people-1551585830?src=5331378b-2b01-4954-a526-a2b0f4d5610b-1-41">Olesea vetrila/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Before you read this story, take a minute to stop and look around you. Now imagine your surroundings under two feet of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-in-a-flooded-british-town-were-told-to-stop-flushing-the-toilet-119115">dirty, sewage-filled water</a>. If you’re at home, everything is trashed. Never mind your car, your furniture or washing machine. They will be ruined, but those things can be replaced. Think of your wedding album, soaked and spoiled. The music box your grandmother gave you, full of stinking mud.</p>
<p>That is the reality of being flooded. And sadly, it’s a reality that many people in the UK – in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire – have faced in the recent floods. Tragically, floodwater can also <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-50360306">be life-threatening</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flood-defences-simply-arent-good-enough-heres-what-needs-to-be-done-126781">Flood defences simply aren't good enough – here’s what needs to be done</a>
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<p>Given the huge costs to people and property when it floods, it’s a reasonable question to ask why, in one of the richest countries in the world, more cannot be done to prevent flooding. And if not prevent it, to know more precisely when and where it will hit.</p>
<p>As a hydrologist and a flood and hazard forecaster, I spend my life doing just that. And despite the work of some of the brightest scientists, the world’s most advanced supercomputers and the commitment of hardworking people on the ground, floods are just difficult beasts to pin down. And if you’ve ever thought that your home could never be affected, you should know that floods can happen almost anywhere, at any time.</p>
<h2>Modelling chaos</h2>
<p>Some of the most wonderful aspects of the UK – the changeable weather and spectacular landscape – are also what makes the country so susceptible to flooding. When beautiful river valleys and low-lying plains – as well as cities and urban areas – are inundated with persistent rain, sudden downpours or high tides with storms, flooding can quickly follow. Especially if there is an unexpected fault in the infrastructure designed to hold back water or prevent flooding, as was seen at <a href="https://theconversation.com/whaley-bridge-dam-collapse-is-a-wake-up-call-concrete-infrastructure-will-not-last-forever-without-care-121423">Whaley Bridge in Yorkshire in August 2019</a>.</p>
<p>In Doncaster in early November 2019, only a slight variation in a fairly typical weather system was enough to cause flooding. Cold and warm air masses regularly press against each other close to North America, creating an Atlantic storm factory. These weather systems are often fired towards Europe too by the strength and direction of the jet stream. Damp ground in the north of England is also par for the course. But add one heavy downpour, caused by a rotating weather front getting “stuck” over one area – and you have a flood.</p>
<p>Weather predictions have come a long way in the past few decades – today’s three-day forecast is as accurate as a 24-hour forecast was in the 1990s. <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-weather-forecast-will-always-be-a-bit-wrong-101547">But they are never perfect</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rivers-are-changing-all-the-time-and-it-affects-their-capacity-to-contain-floods-126659">Rivers are changing all the time, and it affects their capacity to contain floods</a>
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<p>Multiply all the uncertainty within the weather forecast with all the complexity of modelling the path of water travelling through the landscape – both above and below ground – then you start to get an idea of the difficulties forecasters face. We have to take account of all the different routes through the landscape that a single raindrop might take. There are billions upon billions of different possibilities. It requires lots of assumptions.</p>
<p>So much for looking into the future. What about learning from the past?</p>
<p>Many people in flood-hit areas have said that the floods are unprecedented. Older residents have said they have never seen anything like it. But we must remember our landscape is thousands – even millions – of years old. We need to think about much longer timescales than single human lifespans. And of course on top of this, the landscape and climate are changing – so even the best historic data don’t provide a good proxy of the future.</p>
<p>Fishlake may not have flooded in recent years, but it is right on the floodplain of the River Don. Its watery name is <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50372839">probably no coincidence</a>. Neither is that of Meadowhall, the shopping centre in Sheffield, more than likely built on a flood meadow. On November 8, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50341846">it was marooned</a>. But people tend to like living by the river – and they don’t associate a beautiful riverside development with dirty water and destroyed wedding photos.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1192552287044087810"}"></div></p>
<p>Flooding is hard to predict and prepare for. But floods happen. They always have – and we know that as the global climate warms due to human activity we are likely to <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaaw5531">see more of some types of flood</a> in Britain. It’s hard to convince people who don’t know they are at risk that they should prepare for the worst.</p>
<p>This is where the government must step in. To better prepare for floods, we need difficult, expensive, but rational decision-making on flood defences. That would mean seriously considering the risk of building homes and businesses in the floodplain, and planning away from these areas as much as possible. If there is no other option, then the flood-proof design standards must be substantially higher. Developers must also be held to account for ensuring these standards are met and householders must be made fully aware of the risks.</p>
<p>Forecasts and communications of flood risks can always be improved, and my colleagues and I will be working hard on it for years to come. But residents, farmers and businesses can’t be expected to face off the problem of floods on their own.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126866/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Cloke advises the Environment Agency on flood risk and flood forecasting. She works with local flood groups and advises local and national government on flood emergencies. Her flood research is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, the European Commission's Horizon 2020 programme.</span></em></p>Today’s three-day weather forecast is as accurate as a 24-hour forecast in the 1990s. But floods are still particularly tricky to pin down.Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1234542019-09-24T02:43:20Z2019-09-24T02:43:20ZCurious Kids: why can’t we just build a pipe to move water to areas in drought?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292161/original/file-20190912-190031-dd4qcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C8%2C5964%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Let's say we took a lot of water from the coast and piped it to a dry inland area. How might that affect the soil in both places?
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au.</em> </p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Why can’t we build a pipe or find some other way to move fresh water from state to state, from areas with plenty to areas that are experiencing drought? – the pupils of Livingstone Primary School, Victoria, Australia.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>It is true we could build a pipe or canal to move water around. In fact, a 1930s plan called the <a href="https://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/TableOffice/TabledPapers/2007/5207T995.pdf">Bradfield Scheme</a> suggested using dams, pumps and pipes to move flood waters from Australia’s north to drier inland areas. </p>
<p>Some politicians still support this plan but some environmental experts have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-18/fact-file-bradfield-scheme-drought-relief/11216616">said</a> it wouldn’t <a href="http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/internal/mcgregor_x2004a.pdf">really work</a> and would be very expensive. </p>
<p>It has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/24/nsw-secretly-exploring-long-dismissed-plan-to-turn-coastal-rivers-inland">reported</a> that the NSW government is considering exploring a similar idea. </p>
<p>Before moving water around like this, we’d need to think really hard about whether we might be upsetting the balance of water – both in the place of drought and the area of plenty.</p>
<p>The Australian landscape is very old and the soils in inland areas can be very fragile.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-why-do-we-have-a-drought-110592">Curious Kids: why do we have a drought?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Moving water around can affect soil, plants and animals</h2>
<p>Let’s say we took a lot of water from the coast and piped it to a dry inland area.</p>
<p>Adding a lot of extra water to the dry inland area may end up damaging the soil there by upsetting the natural balance of salts and chemicals. Plants and animals that live in that area may also be affected by all the extra water suddenly arriving. </p>
<p>And the coastal area that water is taken from? It may also suffer. Suddenly having less water in a flood plain, for example, may upset the natural health of the soil and the environment in those places.</p>
<p>We also need to think about how taking water from one area might affect the agriculture and fishing industries from that place, or put extra pressure on those industries in time of drought. </p>
<p>Another factor is the impact the pipes or canals may have on the landscape. They can create problems for plants and wildlife.</p>
<p>Finally, we’d need to consider the cost of big projects like this. It would be expensive and there may be cheaper ways to help address the problems.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292163/original/file-20190912-190050-18abgy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292163/original/file-20190912-190050-18abgy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292163/original/file-20190912-190050-18abgy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292163/original/file-20190912-190050-18abgy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292163/original/file-20190912-190050-18abgy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292163/original/file-20190912-190050-18abgy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292163/original/file-20190912-190050-18abgy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292163/original/file-20190912-190050-18abgy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Moving water around affects plants and animals too.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Working together to find solutions</h2>
<p>Scientists think that climate change will increase how severe weather events are and make droughts worse.</p>
<p>Good design takes into account things that are important to the traditional owners of various places, to people who live in those places, and to the land itself.</p>
<p>Science, together with long-term knowledge from Aboriginal traditional owners and more recently, farmers, can help us better understand how these sorts of schemes might affect the landscape. </p>
<p>Thank you for your great question! I hope you keep exploring ideas and looking for solutions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-is-water-made-109434">Curious Kids: how is water made?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Hello, curious kids! Have you got a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123454/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ken Doust is co-director of the Australian Oceania Hub for the Urban Climate Change Research Network. He is director of Windana Research Pty Ltd, which is focused on sustainability research.</span></em></p>The Australian landscape is very old and the soils in inland areas can be very fragile.Ken Doust, Senior Lecturer in Engineering Management , Southern Cross UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1140532019-03-22T10:44:43Z2019-03-22T10:44:43ZWhy flood insurance needs an overhaul: 6 questions answered<p><em>Editor’s note: The Trump administration plans to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-18/climate-advocates-cheer-trump-policy-shift-on-flood-insurance">significantly revamp the pricing of flood insurance</a>. While some homeowners would see their premiums rise, others would benefit from lower rates. We asked an insurance expert to explain what the government program currently works and why it’s in dire need of fixing.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is flood insurance?</h2>
<p>Homeowners’ insurance does not cover damage to a home caused by flooding. A homeowner must have a separate policy to cover flood-related losses, defined as water traveling along or under the ground.</p>
<p>Most such policies are underwritten by the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, which is part of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The program was established in 1968 to address the lack of availability of flood insurance in the private market and reduce demand for federal disaster assistance. It also contains <a href="https://www.fema.gov/floodplain-management-requirements">provisions</a> intended to reduce flood risk.</p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program’s activities are funded largely by the premiums and fees paid by its policyholders, supplemented by a little from the federal budget to help pay for flood risk mapping. Because the program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1385590588018-fef2f58685fac4e186105be4c6ac51be/Sandy_MAT_AppF_508post.pdf">serves the public interest</a> by promoting “sound land use” and minimizing exposure of property to flood losses, <a href="https://morningconsult.com/opinions/save-national-flood-insurance-investing-nature/">some</a> believe that more of its funding for flood risk management should be borne by taxpayers. </p>
<p>Homeowners can purchase a federal flood policy directly from the program or through a private insurer. Separately, some private insurers sell their own flood policies on a limited basis for properties that are overcharged by the government’s program.</p>
<h2>2. How many American homeowners have flood insurance?</h2>
<p>It is difficult to determine exactly how many homeowners have flood insurance. </p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/policies-force-month">had just over 5 million policies in force</a> as of this January. Of these policies, approximately 69 percent were on single-family homes and 20 percent on condo units. There is no source on how many private flood policies are in force, but my sense is that that they represent only about 15 percent of all policies sold nationally.</p>
<p>In recent years, the <a href="https://bsa.nfipstat.fema.gov/reports/1011.htm">number of such policies</a> has been dropping across the country over concerns about the cost and because people underestimate the risk of flooding. In Nebraska, the hardest hit by recent record flooding in the Midwest, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/river-flooding-in-midwest-damage-will-likely-total-more-than-1-billion/">there are fewer than 10,000 policies</a> for a state with almost 2 million residents. The damage is expected to exceed US$1 billion. </p>
<p>Even hurricane-prone areas, such as those hit by Harvey in 2017, are woefully underinsured. In Harris County, which includes Houston, for example, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/consumer-flood-insurance-wake-hurricane-harvey/story?id=49535161">experts estimated</a> before Harvey that only about 15 percent of homeowners were insured for floods – though the percentage should be higher in areas near coastlines.</p>
<p>Real estate data company <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/news/wildfires-and-hurricane-related-floods-were-most-destructive-natural-hazards-in-2017.aspx">CoreLogic</a> estimated that approximately 75 percent of flood losses from Harvey were uninsured, a figure that totaled about 80 percent for Hurricane Irma.</p>
<h2>3. Why do people at great risk of flooding forgo insurance?</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://riskcenter.wharton.upenn.edu/publications/">number of factors</a> affect a homeowner’s decision to buy flood insurance – or not. </p>
<p>People who perceive that their exposure to floods is high are more likely to buy it, all other things equal. While a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/faq-details/Mandatory-Purchase-of-NFIP-Coverage/">mandatory purchase requirement</a> is intended to force owners of mortgaged homes in areas at high risk of flooding to buy insurance, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-13/hurricanes-highlight-failure-to-enforce-flood-insurance-rules">it’s estimated</a> that only about half of them do. </p>
<p>One reason might be that 43 percent of homeowners <a href="http://www.iii.org/sites/default/files/docs/pdf/pulse-wp-020217-final.pdf">incorrectly believe</a> that their homeowners’ insurance covers them for flood losses.</p>
<p>Other factors also come into play, such as a lack of information, the difficulty of calculating flood risk and the expectation that the government will provide disaster assistance that will fully cover a homeowner’s uninsured flood losses – which is in fact <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/business/harvey-aid-sba-disaster-loans.html?mcubz=1&_r=0">rarely the case</a>.</p>
<h2>4. What does flood insurance cover?</h2>
<p>With a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1620-20490-4648/f_679_summaryofcoverage_11_2012.pdf">National Flood Insurance Program policy</a>, a homeowner can purchase coverage on a dwelling up to $250,000 and the contents of a home up to $100,000. It does not cover costs associated with “loss of use” of a home. </p>
<p>These limits have been in effect since 1994 and are no longer high enough to account for the increase in the replacement cost of homes and the actual cash value of their contents. As a result, some homeowners buy additional flood protection from private insurers to make up any shortfall. </p>
<h2>5. Why is the National Flood Insurance Program underwater?</h2>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684354.pdf">has faced considerable criticism</a> over its underwriting and pricing of policies, which have resulted in a substantial debt. Essentially, its premiums are not high enough to cover how much it pays out on claims and its other costs. </p>
<p>Part of the problem is that <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1382115115666-0fba8b9a68fef69d546513c6da105bbe/BW12_AgentWhat_to_Know_Say_Sect205_Sept2013.pdf">about 20 percent of the properties</a> the program insures pay a subsidized rate. But many other National Flood Insurance Program policyholders are also paying premiums <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/08/29/key-flood-insurance-underwriter-sinks-further-into-debt-as-harvey-slams-texas.html">substantially less</a> than what it costs to insure them based largely on whether a home is inside or outside of the 100-year floodplain. </p>
<p>To show how much single storms can cost, the National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/significant-flood-events">paid out $8.7 billion</a> to cover Harvey-related flood losses, $16.3 billion for Katrina and $8.8 billion for Sandy. </p>
<p>These inadequate rates also exacerbate the <a href="http://blogs.colgate.edu/economics/files/2014/09/McGee-2014-Moral-Hazard-and-the-National-Flood-Insurance-Program.pdf">moral hazard created by flood insurance</a>. People are more likely to buy, build or rebuild homes in flood-prone areas and have diminished incentives to invest in flood risk mitigation, such as by elevating their home, if they can buy insurance at below-cost rates. </p>
<p>Although Congress <a href="https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20171027/NEWS06/912316843/Trump-signs-disaster-relief-bill-forgiving-16-billion-dollars-NFIP-debt">forgave</a> $16 billion in debt in 2017, the National Flood Insurance Program still owed <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/700/697245.pdf">$21 billion</a> to the U.S. Treasury as of September. </p>
<p><iframe id="hnDTa" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hnDTa/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>6. What can be done to fix the program?</h2>
<p>Legislative efforts to reform the National Flood Insurance Program to put it on firmer fiscal footing have produced mixed results. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/31946">Biggert-Waters Act of 2012</a> made a number of changes to the program, such as increasing premiums, to make it “<a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1912-25045-9380/bw12_qa_04_2013.pdf">more financially stable</a>.” While that would have gone a long way to restore its fiscal solvency, an outcry from homeowners in high-risk areas led to the 2014 <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/collections/414">Homeowners Flood Insurance Affordability Act</a>, which limited or rescinded many of the Biggert-Waters rate increases. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, the program that millions of Americans rely on to help them rebuild their lives after a devastating flood <a href="https://www.marsh.com/us/insights/research/reforming-the-national-flood-insurance-program.html">needs to be fixed</a>. Its dire financial straits could be resolved by either making taxpayers foot more of the bill or increasing premiums closer to full-cost rates for most homeowners, while also raising total coverage levels.</p>
<p>The Trump administration for its part <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-18/climate-advocates-cheer-trump-policy-shift-on-flood-insurance">proposes calculating premiums</a> to more accurately reflect the actual flood risk individual homes face beginning in 2020. This could result in higher rates for many homeowners.</p>
<p>But I believe the government also needs to do more to convince or compel more at-risk homeowners to buy flood insurance – which would be harder to do if it were to raise rates. To me, this suggests that increasing taxpayer support for the program will have to be part of the solution so that pricey premiums don’t become a deterrent to someone buying insurance. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-flood-insurance-works-6-questions-answered-83187">article</a> originally published on Sept. 7, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114053/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert W. Klein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Trump administration has proposed a major revamp of the National Flood Insurance Program since its inception in 1968. Here’s why it needs fixing.Robert W. Klein, Professor Emeritus of Risk Management and Insurance, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1030582018-09-12T18:46:34Z2018-09-12T18:46:34ZWhat is flood insurance and why the system is broken: 6 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236092/original/file-20180912-133877-1n9qad0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">High tides, whipped in by Hurricane Hazel in 1954, shattered boats and buildings in Swansboro, N.C.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Tropical-Storms-Carolinas/b64046ffe46546e58ce4a10b2021697e/1/0">AP Photo, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: Homeowners generally rely on insurance provided by the federal government to cover the costs of rebuilding their lives after a flood. We asked an insurance expert to explain the government program and its challenges.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is flood insurance?</h2>
<p>Homeowners’ insurance does not cover damage to a home caused by flooding. A homeowner must have a separate policy to cover flood-related losses, defined as water traveling along or under the ground.</p>
<p>Most such policies are underwritten by the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, which is part of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The program was established in 1968 to address the lack of availability of flood insurance in the private market and reduce demand for federal disaster assistance. It also contains <a href="https://www.fema.gov/floodplain-management-requirements">provisions</a> intended to reduce flood risk.</p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program’s activities are funded largely by the premiums and fees paid by its policyholders, supplemented by a little from the federal budget to help pay for flood risk mapping. Because the program serves the public interest, <a href="https://morningconsult.com/opinions/save-national-flood-insurance-investing-nature/">some</a> believe that more of its funding for flood risk management should be borne by taxpayers. </p>
<p>Homeowners can purchase a federal flood policy directly from the program or through a private insurer. Separately, some private insurers sell their own flood policies on a limited basis for properties that are overcharged by the government’s program.</p>
<h2>2. How many homeowners have flood insurance?</h2>
<p>It is difficult to determine exactly how many homeowners have flood insurance. </p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/policy-claim-statistics-flood-insurance">had just over 5 million policies in force</a> as of May 31. Of these policies, approximately 69 percent were on single-family homes and 21 percent on condo units. There is no source on how many private flood policies are in force, but my sense is that it is comparatively small.</p>
<p>In recent years, the number of such policies has been dropping across the country over concerns about the cost and an underestimation of the risks. Some of the counties hardest hit by Hurricane Harvey in 2017, for example, such as Harris (which includes Houston), <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/flood-policies-plunge-houston-years-harvey-49513946">have experienced significant declines</a>. </p>
<p>A more revealing – and <a href="https://bsa.nfipstat.fema.gov/reports/1011.htm">more difficult to ascertain</a> – stat is the share of homeowners in a disaster area who actually have flood insurance. In Harris County, for example, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/consumer-flood-insurance-wake-hurricane-harvey/story?id=49535161">experts estimate</a> that only about 15 percent of homeowners were insured for floods – though the percentage is likely higher in areas near coastlines.</p>
<p>Real estate data company <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/news/wildfires-and-hurricane-related-floods-were-most-destructive-natural-hazards-in-2017.aspx">CoreLogic</a> estimated that approximately 75 percent of flood losses from Harvey were uninsured, a figure that rises to about 80 percent for Hurricane Irma.</p>
<p><iframe id="gj7WL" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gj7WL/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>3. Why do people at great risk forgo insurance?</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://riskcenter.wharton.upenn.edu/publications/">number of factors</a> affect a homeowner’s decision to buy flood insurance – or not. </p>
<p>People who perceive that their exposure to floods is high are more likely to buy it, all other things equal. While a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/faq-details/Mandatory-Purchase-of-NFIP-Coverage/">mandatory purchase requirement</a> is intended to force owners of mortgaged homes in areas at high risk of flooding to buy insurance, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-13/hurricanes-highlight-failure-to-enforce-flood-insurance-rules">it’s estimated</a> that only about half of them do. </p>
<p>One reason might be that 43 percent of homeowners <a href="http://www.iii.org/sites/default/files/docs/pdf/pulse-wp-020217-final.pdf">incorrectly believe</a> that their homeowners’ insurance covers them for flood losses.</p>
<p>Other factors also come into play, such as a lack of information, the difficulty of calculating flood risk and the expectation that the government will provide disaster assistance that will fully cover a homeowner’s uninsured flood losses – which is in fact <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/business/harvey-aid-sba-disaster-loans.html?mcubz=1&_r=0">rarely the case</a>.</p>
<h2>4. What does flood insurance cover?</h2>
<p>With a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1620-20490-4648/f_679_summaryofcoverage_11_2012.pdf">National Flood Insurance Program policy</a>, a homeowner can purchase coverage on a dwelling up to US$250,000 and the contents of a home up to $100,000. It does not cover costs associated with “loss of use” of a home. </p>
<p>These limits have been in effect since 1994 and are no longer high enough to account for the increase in the replacement cost of homes and the actual cash value of their contents. As a result, some homeowners buy additional flood protection from private insurers to make up any shortfall. </p>
<h2>5. Why is the federal program underwater?</h2>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684354.pdf">has faced considerable criticism</a> over its underwriting and pricing of policies, which have resulted in a substantial debt. Essentially, its premiums are not high enough to cover how much it pays out on claims and its other costs. </p>
<p>Part of the problem is that <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1382115115666-0fba8b9a68fef69d546513c6da105bbe/BW12_AgentWhat_to_Know_Say_Sect205_Sept2013.pdf">about 20 percent of the properties</a> the program insures pay a subsidized rate. But many other National Flood Insurance Program policyholders are also paying premiums <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/08/29/key-flood-insurance-underwriter-sinks-further-into-debt-as-harvey-slams-texas.html">substantially less</a> than what it costs to insure them because the rates do not adequately account for the catastrophic losses incurred during years when more major storms than normal strike, such as Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Sandy in 2012. </p>
<p>To show how much single storms can cost, the National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/significant-flood-events">paid out $8.7 billion</a> to cover Harvey-related flood losses, $16.3 billion for Katrina and $8.8 billion for Sandy. </p>
<p>These inadequate rates also exacerbate the <a href="http://blogs.colgate.edu/economics/files/2014/09/McGee-2014-Moral-Hazard-and-the-National-Flood-Insurance-Program.pdf">moral hazard created by flood insurance</a>. People are more likely to buy, build or rebuild homes in flood-prone areas and have diminished incentives to invest in flood risk mitigation, such as by elevating their home, if they can buy insurance at below-cost rates. </p>
<p>Although Congress <a href="https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20171027/NEWS06/912316843/Trump-signs-disaster-relief-bill-forgiving-16-billion-dollars-NFIP-debt">forgave</a> $16 billion in debt last year, the National Flood Insurance Program still owed <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/fio/Documents/FACIFebruary2018_FEMA.pdf">$20.5 billion</a> to the U.S. Treasury as of February. </p>
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<p>Hurricane Florence and other storms that may follow will substantially increase this debt – and may require more forgiveness.</p>
<h2>6. What can be done to fix the program?</h2>
<p>Legislative efforts to reform the National Flood Insurance Program to put it on firmer fiscal footing have produced mixed results. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/31946">Biggert-Waters Act of 2012</a> made a number of changes to the program, such as increasing premiums, to make it “<a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1912-25045-9380/bw12_qa_04_2013.pdf">more financially stable</a>.” While that would have gone a long way to restore its fiscal solvency, an outcry from homeowners in high-risk areas led to the 2014 <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/collections/414">Homeowners Flood Insurance Affordability Act</a>, which limited or rescinded many of the Biggert-Waters rate increases. </p>
<p>Currently, there is a <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/2874/text">bill</a> in Congress that would fix some but not all of the problems with the program, such as by making it easier for private companies to sell their own policies and tightening the rules for properties that suffer repetitive losses.</p>
<p>But its prospects are dim to opposition from legislators concerned about some of its changes, particularly its rate increases and the repetitive loss provision.</p>
<p>Fundamentally, the program millions of Americans rely on to help them rebuild their lives after a devastating flood <a href="http://www.rff.org/research/collection/reforming-national-flood-insurance-program">needs to be fixed</a>. Its dire financial straits could be resolved by either making taxpayers foot more of the bill or increasing premiums closer to full-cost rates for most homeowners, while also raising total coverage levels.</p>
<p>At the same time, I believe the government needs to do more to convince or compel more at-risk homeowners to buy flood insurance – which would be harder to do if it were to raise rates. To me, this suggests that increasing taxpayer support for the the program will have to be part of the solution so that pricey premiums don’t become a deterrent to someone buying insurance. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-flood-insurance-works-6-questions-answered-83187">article</a> originally published on Sept. 7, 2017</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert W. Klein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Hurricane Florence is expected to pound the Carolinas with significant flooding, an insurance expert explains how the program designed to help the millions affected recover.Robert W. Klein, Director, Center for RMI Research, Associate Professor, Risk Management and Insurance, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/831872017-09-07T16:16:53Z2017-09-07T16:16:53ZHow flood insurance works: 6 questions answered<p><em>Editor’s note: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/31/harvey-is-a-1000-year-flood-event-unprecedented-in-scale/">Hurricane Harvey</a> dumped up to 50 inches of rain on parts of Texas and Louisiana last month. Meanwhile, Hurricane Irma is bearing down on Florida, which will also likely cause substantial flooding. Homeowners generally rely on insurance provided by the federal government to cover the costs of rebuilding their lives after a flood. We asked an insurance expert to explain the government program and its challenges.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is flood insurance?</h2>
<p>Homeowners’ insurance does not cover damage to a home caused by flooding. A homeowner must have a separate policy to cover flood-related losses, defined as water traveling along or under the ground.</p>
<p>Most such policies are underwritten by the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, which is part of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The National Flood Insurance Program was established in 1968 to address the lack of availability of flood insurance in the private market and reduce the demand for federal disaster assistance for uninsured flood losses. Another purpose was to integrate flood insurance with floodplain management, which includes such things as adopting and enforcing stricter building codes, retaining or restoring wetlands to absorb floodwaters and requiring or encouraging homeowners to make their homes more flood-resistant. </p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program’s activities are funded largely by the premiums and fees paid by its policyholders, supplemented by a small amount of general funds to help pay for flood risk mapping. Because the National Flood Insurance Program serves the public interest, some believe that more of its funding should be borne by taxpayers.</p>
<p>Homeowners can purchase a federal flood policy directly from the National Flood Insurance Program or through a private insurer. Separately, some private insurers sell their own flood policies on a limited basis for properties that are overcharged by the National Flood Insurance Program.</p>
<h2>2. How many American homeowners have flood insurance?</h2>
<p>It is difficult to determine exactly how many homeowners have flood insurance. </p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/policy-claim-statistics-flood-insurance">had just under five million policies in force</a> as of June 30. Of these policies, approximately 68 percent were on single-family homes and 21 percent on condo units. There is no source on how many private flood policies are in force, but my sense is that it is very small relative to the number of National Flood Insurance Program policies.</p>
<p>In recent years, the number of such policies has been dropping across the country. Some of the counties hardest hit by Harvey, for example, such as Harris (which includes Houston), <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/flood-policies-plunge-houston-years-harvey-49513946">have experienced significant declines</a>.</p>
<p>A more revealing – and <a href="https://bsa.nfipstat.fema.gov/reports/1011.htm">more difficult to ascertain</a> – stat is the share of homeowners in a disaster area who actually have flood insurance. In Harris County, for example, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/consumer-flood-insurance-wake-hurricane-harvey/story?id=49535161">experts estimate</a> that only about 15 percent of homeowners are insured for floods – though the percentage should be higher in areas near coastlines.</p>
<p>Real estate data company <a href="http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/news/media-advisory-corelogic-analysis-estimates-total-residential-insured-and-uninsured-flood-loss-for-hurricane-harvey.aspx">CoreLogic</a> estimates that approximately 70 percent of flood losses from Harvey will be uninsured.</p>
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<h2>3. Why do people at great risk of flooding forgo insurance?</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://riskcenter.wharton.upenn.edu/publications/">number of factors</a> affect a homeowner’s decision to buy flood insurance (or not). </p>
<p>People who perceive that their exposure to floods is high are more likely to buy it, all other things equal. And the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/faq-details/Mandatory-Purchase-of-NFIP-Coverage/">mandatory purchase requirement</a> forces owners of mortgaged homes located in Special Flood Hazard Areas – areas at high risk for flooding – to buy insurance. </p>
<p>However, 43 percent of homeowners <a href="http://www.iii.org/sites/default/files/docs/pdf/pulse-wp-020217-final.pdf">incorrectly believe</a> that their homeowners’ insurance covers them for flood losses. </p>
<p>Other factors also come into play, such as a lack of information, the difficulty of calculating flood risk and the expectation that the government will provide disaster assistance – which is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/business/harvey-aid-sba-disaster-loans.html?mcubz=1&_r=0">rarely the case</a>.</p>
<h2>4. What does flood insurance cover?</h2>
<p>With a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1620-20490-4648/f_679_summaryofcoverage_11_2012.pdf">National Flood Insurance Program policy</a>, a homeowner can purchase coverage on a dwelling up to US$250,000 and the contents of a home up to $100,000. It does not cover costs associated with “loss of use” of a home. </p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program policy limits have been in effect since 1994 and need to be updated to account for the increase in the replacement cost of homes and the actual cash value of their contents. Although not the best measure of the replacement cost, the median price of new homes sold in the U.S. <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS">has soared 132 percent</a> since 1994.</p>
<p>Some homeowners buy additional flood protection from private insurers to make up any shortfall. </p>
<h2>5. Why is the National Flood Insurance Program underwater?</h2>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684354.pdf">has faced considerable criticism</a> over its underwriting and pricing policies, which have resulted in a substantial debt. Essentially, its premiums are not high enough to cover how much it pays out on claims and its other costs. </p>
<p>Part of the problem is that <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1382115115666-0fba8b9a68fef69d546513c6da105bbe/BW12_AgentWhat_to_Know_Say_Sect205_Sept2013.pdf">about 20 percent of the properties</a> the program insures pay a subsidized rate. But many other National Flood Insurance Program policyholders are also paying premiums <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/08/29/key-flood-insurance-underwriter-sinks-further-into-debt-as-harvey-slams-texas.html">substantially less</a> than what it costs to insure them because the rates do not adequately account for the catastrophic losses incurred during years when more major storms than normal strike, such as Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Sandy in 2012. As a result, the National Flood Insurance Program owes an accumulated debt of $25 billion to the U.S. Treasury.</p>
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<p>Hurricane Harvey (and potentially other storms such as Irma that may follow) will substantially increase this debt. <a href="http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/news/media-advisory-corelogic-analysis-estimates-total-residential-insured-and-uninsured-flood-loss-for-hurricane-harvey.aspx">CoreLogic estimates</a> that National Flood Insurance Program-insured flood losses from Harvey alone will be $6 billion to $9 billion.</p>
<p>In the short term, Congress will have to increase the National Flood Insurance Program’s borrowing authority for it to pay the claims that will result from Harvey and other storms this year. Lawmakers could make a general fund appropriation to forgive all or a portion of the National Flood Insurance Program’s debt, but it has shown no interest in doing so. </p>
<p>These inadequate rates also exacerbate the <a href="http://blogs.colgate.edu/economics/files/2014/09/McGee-2014-Moral-Hazard-and-the-National-Flood-Insurance-Program.pdf">moral hazard created by flood insurance</a>. People are more likely to buy, build or rebuild homes in flood-prone areas and have diminished incentives to invest in flood risk mitigation, such as by elevating their home, if they can buy insurance at below-cost rates. </p>
<h2>6. What can be done to fix the program?</h2>
<p>Legislative efforts to reform the National Flood Insurance Program to put it on firmer fiscal footing have produced mixed results. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/31946">Biggert-Waters Act of 2012</a> made a number of changes to the program, such as increasing premiums and other changes to make it “<a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1912-25045-9380/bw12_qa_04_2013.pdf">more financially stable</a>,” that would have gone a long way to restore its fiscal solvency. However, an outcry from homeowners in high-risk areas such as coastal Florida led to the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/collections/414">Homeowners Flood Insurance Affordability Act</a>, passed in 2014, that limited or rescinded many of the Biggert-Waters rate increases. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, the program millions of Americans rely on to help them rebuild their lives after a devastating flood <a href="http://www.rff.org/research/collection/reforming-national-flood-insurance-program">needs to be fixed</a>. Its dire financial straits could be resolved by either making taxpayers foot more of the bill or increasing premiums closer to full-cost rates for most homeowners, while also raising total coverage levels.</p>
<p>At the same time, the government needs to do more to convince or compel more at-risk homeowners to buy flood insurance – which would be harder to do if it were to raise rates. To me, this suggests that increasing taxpayer support for the NFIP will have to be part of the solution so that pricey premiums don’t become a deterrent to someone buying insurance. </p>
<p>With the likelihood of much more flooding in the coming weeks and years, more needs to be done to mitigate the risk, including producing more accurate and timely maps of the flood risk in various areas, especially high-risk areas, educating people about what those risks really mean and helping relocate homeowners as necessary.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83187/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert W. Klein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The federal government created a program in 1968 to insure homes in the US from flooding, yet few of the houses hammered by Harvey’s record rainfall were covered.Robert W. Klein, Professor Emeritus of Risk Management and Insurance, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/831842017-09-04T23:24:41Z2017-09-04T23:24:41ZWhat victims of Hurricane Harvey can learn from Katrina as rebuilding begins<p>Floodwaters in parts of Houston are beginning to recede after nearly a week of rain from Hurricane Harvey. The emphasis for many flood victims will now shift from survival to recovery. </p>
<p>While many economists are trying to determine the disaster’s overall toll – <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-harvey-economic-toll-20170901-story.html">certain to be significant</a> – a topic less explored is the financial impact on Harvey’s victims. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20140273">recent research</a> I co-authored with <a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/people/h/hartley-daniel">economist Daniel Hartley</a>, we provide some of the first victim-level evidence of the financial impact of a costly flood. Specifically, we examined financial data for victims of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. </p>
<h2>Flooding’s toll</h2>
<p>Since Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Houston on August 25, rain totals <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/31/harvey-is-a-1000-year-flood-event-unprecedented-in-scale/?utm_term=.d6ea4ce931db">have topped 50 inches</a> in some locations.</p>
<p>The result has been untold human suffering. At least <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/hurricaneharvey/article/Harvey-Aftermath-Houston-police-officer-dies-19-12159139.php">60 lives</a> have been lost, and <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-texas-harvey-20170901-story.html">tens of thousands</a> had to evacuate their homes. Property damage may surpass that of Katrina, which up until now has been the most costly hurricane to hit the U.S., with an estimated price tag of <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122005_Katrina.pdf">US$108 billion</a>. </p>
<p>That storm flooded <a href="http://www.tulane.edu/%7Esanelson/New_Orleans_and_Hurricanes/overviewofleveefailures.pdf">about 85 percent</a> of New Orleans, killed at least <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122005_Katrina.pdf">1,833 people</a> and displaced an estimated <a href="http://projects.ce.berkeley.edu/neworleans/">450,000</a> residents.</p>
<p>Katrina is only one of dozens of <a href="http://create.usc.edu/sites/default/files/publications/policytenureundertheu.s.nationalfloodinsuranceprogramnf_0.pdf">devastating hurricanes</a> that have wrought destruction along the southeast and eastern coasts of the United States in recent decades. Yet despite the frequency of such disasters, little has been known until recently about the financial toll on flood victims. </p>
<h2>Studying the financial impact</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20140273">our study</a>, we measured the financial impact from Katrina using <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr479.html">credit agency data</a> on a random sample of U.S. residents. We zeroed in on 16,000 people living in New Orleans at the time of Katrina and tracked their credit histories three years before and after the storm. </p>
<p>The information is quarterly and includes all reported debts, including home loans, credit cards and student loans. Debt is a good proxy for financial impact because a change in borrowing is often how people manage an unexpected shock, such as a disaster. </p>
<p>Although the data are anonymized, their approximate location was included in the data based on the “<a href="http://proximityone.com/geo_blocks.htm">census block</a>” of residence, which in New Orleans is a couple of city blocks in size on average. </p>
<p>We divided residents in our sample into a nonflooded group and four flooded groups based on the <a href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2503.htm">depth of water</a> in their block, which ranged from less than a foot for the least-flooded to about eight for the most.</p>
<p>The data showed that prior to Katrina, total debt levels for nonflooded, least-flooded and most-flooded residents were on a similar upward trajectory. The overall level of debt was highest for residents in the nonflooded group, while that of residents in the other two groups were nearly identical. </p>
<p>What we found was that average debt for those who experienced the most flooding plunged within a few months of Katrina, falling about 25 percent. Meanwhile those who had the least flooding saw their debt briefly level off. Debt of those who didn’t encounter any flooding, on the other hand, continued to rise unabated. </p>
<p>Beginning about a year after Katrina, the rate of debt accumulation for all three groups returned to the pre-storm trend. </p>
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<h2>Breaking down the debts</h2>
<p>Breaking down the data into specific types of borrowing, we found that it was primarily a sharp drop in home loan debt that accounted for the overall change. </p>
<p>After controlling for several socioeconomic and demographic factors and pre-Katrina flood risk, we saw that home debt decreased by about $12,000 for the most-flooded residents relative to those who experienced none.</p>
<p>The credit agency data indicated that apart from this reduction, flooding from Katrina had a modest and relatively short-lived negative impact on the personal finances of the most-flooded residents.</p>
<p>Their average credit card debt temporarily increased about $500 (15 percent) but was paid back within a year, while auto and student loan debt didn’t change at all. Ninety-day bill delinquency rates rose about 10 percent for a quarter, and credit scores declined about 1 percent for two years.</p>
<p>The relatively modest and short-lived financial impact of Katrina on its victims is supported by another <a href="http://deryugina.com/2017-05-11-hurricane_katrina_draft.pdf">recent study</a> based on tax return data. It found that within a few years of the storm, the income of flood victims was higher than that of filers living outside of New Orleans with similar pre-Katrina financial histories. </p>
<p>An important caveat to both studies is that neither includes information on subpopulations that may be most vulnerable to natural disasters, such as those without a credit history or who don’t file federal income taxes. Residents in both groups were more likely to be unemployed before the flood and have fewer financial resources. </p>
<h2>Role of flood insurance</h2>
<p>Homeowner decisions to use flood insurance to pay down home loan debt accounts for most of the reduction. Around 25 percent of victims with a home loan in the most-flooded group paid it off within six months of Katrina. </p>
<p>Using flood insurance to pay off a home loan made financial sense for some. About <a href="http://levees.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/After-Katrina-Pundits-Criticized-New-Orleans.pdf">two-thirds</a> of homeowners in New Orleans had such insurance. </p>
<p>Assuming a home is fully insured, a flood insurance check would cover the cost to rebuild it. But in many neighborhoods of New Orleans prior to Katrina, <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.22.4.135">reconstruction costs</a> of homes exceeded their worth, in which case it made sense to purchase a similar home elsewhere at a lower cost rather than rebuild. When this occurred, any existing mortgage debt had to be paid off first.</p>
<p>Some homeowners, however, appear to have made this decision to pay off mortgage debt due to pressure from lenders, which is both <a href="http://www.uphelp.org/sites/default/files/disaster/katrina_articles/katrina_mortgage.html">illegal</a> and probably a poor financial decision. We found evidence consistent with <a href="http://thelensnola.org/2011/12/23/kisa-holmes-six-years-later/">accounts</a> that lenders, particularly national banks without a strong local presence, pressured some homeowners to pay off mortgages using flood insurance money.</p>
<h2>What it means for Harvey victims</h2>
<p>So what does the experience of Katrina’s victims mean for the financial recovery of those flooded by Harvey?</p>
<p>First, the collective safety net provided by flood insurance, government assistance, nonprofit aid and personal savings encouraged a relatively quick financial recovery – as measured by debt levels, indicators of financial distress and income – for even the worst-hit victims of Katrina. </p>
<p>Flood insurance played a particularly important role. <a href="http://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/flood-insurance">More than $16 billion in flood insurance was paid out</a>, or $97,141 per claim. By comparison, direct federal assistance to victims for rebuilding was capped at <a href="http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-844T">$15,700</a>. Other assistance approved by Congress didn’t arrive until <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-road-home-opens-10-housing-assistance-centers-statewide-louisiana-housing-recovery-program-underway-56216082.html">over a year</a> later.</p>
<p>That won’t be of much comfort to the residents of Houston, however, where flood insurance coverage rates <a href="http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/08/flood_insurance_in_houston_plu.html">have dropped 9 percent</a> in the past five years. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/29/where-harvey-is-hitting-hardest-four-out-of-five-homeowners-lack-flood-insurance/?utm_term=.33ef4b65bb6b">Only 17 percent of homeowners</a> in the counties most affected by Harvey have policies. </p>
<p>In order for Harvey victims to recovery financially at a pace similar to Katrina’s, per-person direct government assistance will likely need to be larger. President Trump <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/houston/article/Houston-heads-into-weekend-post-Harvey-Trump-12168379.php">has reportedly requested</a> $7.9 billion so far.</p>
<p>Second, the Houston metro area <a href="http://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2016/03/24/142556/census-numbers-are-out-greater-houston-area-has-largest-population-gain/">has experienced</a> significant population growth and increasing property values. Flooded homeowners who have insurance are likely to be better off financially if they use their checks to rebuild rather than paying off home loans and walking away. Houston residents should be wary of banks that suggest otherwise.</p>
<h2>Value of flood insurance</h2>
<p>We know that there will be devastating future floods in Houston and elsewhere, and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_full_report.pdf">climate change</a> is expected to increase their frequency. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a> was created in 1968 to help protect Americans against the risk of flooding without requiring extensive taxpayer-financed federal disaster aid. But insufficient insurance coverage, like in Houston, drastically limits its effectiveness. </p>
<p>If we want to avoid generous disaster bailouts in the future, policy changes to the program are necessary: for example, by ensuring more people who choose to live in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-09269-z">areas at greatest risk</a> of flooding <a href="https://www.fema.gov/faq-details/Mandatory-Purchase-of-NFIP-Coverage">are compelled</a> to buy insurance. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/01/cbo-flood-insurance-program-shortfall/625460001">Strengthening</a> the insurance program is one way to help ensure residents of Houston and other coastal cities are prepared for the many floods to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83184/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Gallagher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers examined credit data on the victims of Hurricane Katrina to understand how the disaster affected their personal finances, revealing important lessons for those hurt by Harvey.Justin Gallagher, Assistant Professor of Economics, Case Western Reserve UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/618392016-07-05T01:57:39Z2016-07-05T01:57:39ZWhy river floodplains are key to preserving nature and biodiversity in the western US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128757/original/image-20160629-15292-1sz4ni3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gravel bed rivers and their floodplains are vital to local ecosystems and their ability to adapt to climate change. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sandybrownjensen/15238023856/in/photolist-pdwRBf-nTBuTw-bBcTv5-fnntNR-dPXSSE-bLnKYB-jQos3v-FXqSbf-jQpjnr-jQokpk-htfNmW-fqWLAP-jQqEis-ajibaD-buKTQY-dfZV1Q-bjrFY2-4DhtSp-r7cWar-p2nqxz-cDGz7N-dhDMsa-2ezBx-dWcVmu-a2sbBu-nbuKiU-8ffLBG-GZj8XP-wwssap-iE4eqn-dWgrvJ-daBprF-a2sacE-Jqr5yp-dWcTfd-dPXTC9-dWaQ1e-daBmEi-8cQLCM-bsfFaR-86kk2r-nxyMfF-8nkLEt-dWcL5Y-dWaJAD-382Hd6-e7QspX-astZNW-4TiLx6-nZr1Hw">sandybrownjensen/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Although they may not commonly be viewed as hotspots for biodiversity, gravel-bed river floodplains are by far the most important feature for nature across the landscapes of western North America. </p>
<p>This is because gravel-bed rivers disproportionately create high diversity of habitats, concentrate nutrients for growth, and provide corridors to link populations of species that would otherwise become isolated. </p>
<p>More than just river channels carrying water off the landscape and channels used by fish, gravel-bed rivers are essential to the life requirements of a wide variety of aquatic, avian and terrestrial species from microbes to grizzly bears. </p>
<p>What’s more, in a recently <a href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/6/e1600026">published article</a> authored by myself and interdisciplinary team of colleagues, we found that gravel-bed river floodplains will be critically important for native species under the increasing pressures of climate change now and in the future. </p>
<h2>Home to many creatures</h2>
<p>Unlike meandering sand- and silt-bottom rivers like the Missouri and Mississippi, gravel-bed rivers flow over deep beds of gravel and cobble that form floodplains which function somewhat like a sponge.</p>
<p>These types of rivers and floodplains form a network of complex habitats and corridors of connectivity across the mountain west of the United States and Canada, a landscape once covered by glaciers. In our shared mountain region from Yellowstone to Yukon, the complex habitats of gravel-bed rivers are maintained through time by flooding, channel and gravel movement, and new life.</p>
<p>Although occupying less than 3 percent of the area, gravel-bed river floodplains contain over half of the region’s plant diversity. More than 70 percent of the region’s bird species use these river floodplains for some critical stage of their life. The large, iconic deer and elk of the region use them year-round, but most extensively in winter as these animals look for food and habitat. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128759/original/image-20160629-15254-1mzai38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128759/original/image-20160629-15254-1mzai38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128759/original/image-20160629-15254-1mzai38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128759/original/image-20160629-15254-1mzai38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128759/original/image-20160629-15254-1mzai38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128759/original/image-20160629-15254-1mzai38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128759/original/image-20160629-15254-1mzai38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128759/original/image-20160629-15254-1mzai38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gravel-bed rivers are essential to populations of wide-ranging animals, such as deer and elk, grizzly bears and other carnivores.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nps_wear/8519479273/in/photolist-dYQynF-p2swyk-oZJi1P-BGRB8-p2vTz5-p5JgWY-6Phdq7-p2xr92-pgXZxs-crpJL3-phbaer-5pYE1B-a6VWVH-peyJDN-p2uA33-6Ui6u5-6Ue4L6-6Ui5Ry-6Ui6rm-6Ui6oC-6Ui6fC-6Ui5KL-zxyKEX-5eioh6-6Ui64Y-6Ui5Uy-fZy4TE-6Ui5Xh-6Ue4nr-dYQygH-6Ue4zK-rq9P-6Ui68j-JuQCU-6XdqiS-72J6M6-5einNT-7dtQBD-avXDrZ-a9mtTr-2Xf9xe-oteUZp-otuww9-p2qiZQ-csbNhu-8aMybp-5eCqXM-fBpxo-g8crau-A2Sc1a">nps_wear/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wolves not only follow the elk or caribou around on the floodplains, but den almost exclusively on river floodplains. Gravel-bed rivers are also critically important sites for grizzly bears, particularly early in the spring as bears emerge from hibernation and are looking for early, tender shoots of vegetation. </p>
<p>These gravel-bed rivers have large volumes of water that penetrate the cobble and gravel of the floodplain, only to return to the river channel kilometers downstream. In the gravel-bed rivers themselves, trout and salmon feed on aquatic insects that live on the river channel bottom. Fish also eat the insects that live hundreds of meters out from the river channels in the gravels of the floodplain and that migrate back to the channel to emerge as adults. </p>
<p>The exchange of water, nutrients, and insects between the floodplain and the river channel feeds the river and cools the channel in the summer and <a href="http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/f00-056#.V3bJGJMrL_Q">keeps it warmer in the winter</a>. Many of the trout and salmon of our western rivers are dependent on this water, temperature, and food exchange between the river channel and the floodplain for proper spawning sites. Moose, elk and bears all need the spring grasses and herbs that come early on the floodplain because of the surface water and groundwater exchange. </p>
<h2>Under pressure</h2>
<p>Despite their ecological productivity, however, floodplains are among the most endangered landform types worldwide. </p>
<p>They are flat, rich and attractive areas with abundant water for municipalities, agriculture and recreation. In most mountainous systems, they are the first to be converted to permanent human settlement, agriculture, industry and developed for transportation. </p>
<p>While there are many protected areas in the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States and Canada – Yellowstone and Banff National Parks are two examples – humans have altered the structure and function of the gravel-bed river floodplains both outside and inside these protected areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128755/original/image-20160629-15263-sjl1n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128755/original/image-20160629-15263-sjl1n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128755/original/image-20160629-15263-sjl1n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128755/original/image-20160629-15263-sjl1n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128755/original/image-20160629-15263-sjl1n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128755/original/image-20160629-15263-sjl1n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128755/original/image-20160629-15263-sjl1n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128755/original/image-20160629-15263-sjl1n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Illustration of the river floodplain dynamics and water exchange between the river channel and the shallow, gravel-bed aquifer and the plants and animals that are dependent natural, dynamic processes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Emily Harrington</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of the region’s cities such as Calgary, Missoula and Kamloops in British Columbia, were pioneered along the edge of river floodplains when these rivers were important for commerce. Virtually every city near a river has deliberately encroached onto the neighboring floodplain and subsequently built levees and hardened structures, such as <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=rip-rap&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwigtKeb2NLNAhVEgx4KHQznDJIQ_AUICCgB&biw=1438&bih=732">rip-rap</a> to prevent flooding and damage to infrastructure. Unfortunately, these prove to be inadequate when very large, but highly repeatable floods occur. </p>
<p>As the effects of a rapidly changing climate take hold, gravel-bed river floodplains will play a vital role in sustaining both nature and culture. Indeed, climate change will further stress habitats and populations that already have been impacted during a century of development, which threatens the sustainability of the entire region’s biodiversity. </p>
<p>For example, trout and salmon are especially vulnerable to climate change because their survival is dependent, from eggs to juveniles to adults, on an abundance of clear, cold, connected and complex habitats that are concentrated on gravel-bed river floodplains. Likewise, birds, deer and elk and large predators are dependent on the complex mosaic of habitats that are impacted by dams, municipalities and housing developments. </p>
<p>Gravel-bed river valleys, when changed by human populations and infrastructure, fragment these wildlife populations. But these changes can be reversed or mitigated by managing floodplains to better resemble their natural state of flooding and channel movement around on the floodplain.</p>
<h2>Change in conservation practices</h2>
<p>Throughout North America the ecological restoration of streams and rivers has primarily focused on increasing habitat heterogeneity, or complexity, in a <a href="http://www.palmerlab.umd.edu/docs/Palmer_et_al_Standards_for_Ecol_Successful_Restoration.pdf">static fashion</a>. The most common practice in stream restoration has been reconfiguring channels and adding boulders, large wood structures and channel-spanning <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=weir&espv=2&biw=1438&bih=732&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwinh8ur2dLNAhUFqh4KHTQDDGMQ_AUIBygC">weirs</a> to enhance habitat and restore biodiversity. </p>
<p>However, these approaches have been shown to be <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1109769">largely unsuccessful</a> because they often lack restoration of the natural dynamics of rivers interacting with their riparian zones.</p>
<p>Rather, successful river restoration and renaturalization has been achieved along tens and even hundreds of kilometers of gravel-bed river by <a href="http://www.fishsciences.net/reports/2004/Aquatic_Sciences_66_1-14_River_regulation_decline_ecological_resources_restoration_semi-arid_lands.pdf">reintroducing naturalized flooding regimes</a>. These restore the dynamics of gravel and cobble movement of the channels and create new habitat for plant succession and a diversity of animals. </p>
<p>Many of the great rivers of the world originate in mountainous regions where gravel-bed rivers and floodplains play an essential role in the biodiversity of life in that region and in the quality of human well-being. An overriding question remains: How do we resolve the enormous gap between what scientists know is needed to maintain and restore functioning floodplain and gravel-bed river systems, and the neglect by land-use managers, energy-planners and society as a whole? </p>
<p>Implementing conservation policies that reflect this scientific understanding will require a paradigm shift from conservationists and river managers alike to prioritize maintaining natural dynamic rivers where they exist or restoring them where ever compromised. </p>
<p>Regional biodiversity in the interior mountains of western North America will depend on the the natural processes of gravel-bed rivers and their floodplains to sustain our fisheries, birds, deer and elk, and our carnivores.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61839/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ric Hauer receives funding from the National Science Foundation. He is a member of the Society for Freshwater Science, the Association for the Science of Limnology and Oceanography and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. </span></em></p>Conservation methods for gravel-bed rivers – which are ecological hotspots in the western U.S. – need to improve in order to deal with the effects of climate change.Ric Hauer, Professor of Limnology, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/520172015-12-08T17:37:48Z2015-12-08T17:37:48ZWhy do flood defences fail?<p><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35023558">More than 40,000 people</a> were forced to leave their homes after Storm Desmond caused devastating floods and wreaked havoc in north-west England. Initial indications were that the storm may have caused the heaviest local daily rainfall <a href="http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/12/07/did-climate-change-have-an-impact-on-storm-desmond/">on record in the UK</a>. As much as £45m has been <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-35025065">spent on flood defences</a> in the region in the previous ten years and yet the rainfall still proved overwhelming. So what should we actually expect from flood defence measures in this kind of situation? And why do they sometimes fail?</p>
<p>We know that floods can and will happen. Yet we live and work and put our crucial societal infrastructure in places that could get flooded. Instead of keeping our entire society away from rivers and their floodplains, we accept flood risks because living in lowlands has benefits for society that outweigh the costs of flood damage. But knowing how much risk to take is a tricky business. And even when there is an overall benefit for society, the consequences for individuals can be devastating.</p>
<p>We also need to calculate risks when we build flood defences. We usually protect ourselves from some flood damage by building structures like flood walls and river or tidal barriers to keep rising waters away from populated areas, and storage reservoirs and canals to capture excess water and channel it away. But these structures are only designed to keep out waters from typical-sized floods. Bigger defences that could protect us from the largest possible floods, which may only happen once every 100 years, would be much more expensive to build and so we choose to accept this risk as less than the costs.</p>
<h2>Balancing the costs and benefits</h2>
<p>In the UK, the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/292928/geho0609bqds-e-e.pdf">Environment Agency</a> works with local communities to assess the trade off between the costs of flood protection measures, and the benefits of avoiding flood damage. We can estimate the lifetime benefits of different proposed flood protection structures in the face of typical-sized floods, as well as the results of doing nothing. On the other side of the ledger, we can also estimate the structures’ construction and maintenance costs.</p>
<p>In some cases, flood protection measures can be designed so that if they fail, they do the least damage possible, or at least avoid catastrophic damage. For example, a flood protection wall can be built so that if flood waters run over it they run into a park rather than residential streets or commercial premises. And secondary flood walls outside the main wall can redirect some of the overflow back towards the river channel.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104850/original/image-20151208-32391-di0e3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104850/original/image-20151208-32391-di0e3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104850/original/image-20151208-32391-di0e3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104850/original/image-20151208-32391-di0e3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104850/original/image-20151208-32391-di0e3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104850/original/image-20151208-32391-di0e3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104850/original/image-20151208-32391-di0e3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thames Barrier: big costs but bigger benefits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ross_angus/9531679095/">Ross Angus/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Environment Agency puts the highest priority on the projects with the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/11/government-funding-flood-defence-schemes">largest benefits for the smallest costs</a>. Deciding where that threshold should be set is a very important social decision, because it provides protection to some but not all parts of our communities. Communities and businesses need to be well-informed about the reasons for those thresholds, and their likely consequences.</p>
<p>We also protect ourselves from flood damage in other ways. Zoning rules prevent valuable assets such as houses and businesses being built where there is an exceptionally high flood risk. Through land management, we can choose to increase the amount of wooded land, which can reduce the impact of smaller floods. And flood forecasting alerts emergency services and helps communities rapidly move people and their portable valuables out of the way.</p>
<h2>Always some risk</h2>
<p>It’s important to realise that since flood protection measures never eliminate all the risks, there are always extra costs on some in society from exceptional events such as Storm Desmond, which produce very large floods that overwhelm protection measures. The costs of damage from these exceptional floods are difficult to estimate. Since these large floods have been rare in the past, our records of them are very limited, and we are not sure how often they will occur in the future or how much damage will they cause. We also know that the climate is changing, as are the <a href="https://theconversation.com/get-used-to-flooding-climate-change-will-bring-more-of-it-23198">risks of severe floods</a>, and we are still quite uncertain about how this will affect extreme rainfall.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0QL0hYIURyk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>At the same time we know that it’s very hard to judge the risk from catastrophic events. For example, we are <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420912000040">more likely</a> to be afraid of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/may/28/fear-catastrophic-events-mainstream">catastrophic events</a> such as nuclear radiation accidents or terrorist attacks, but do not worry so much about much larger total losses from smaller events that occur more often, such as floods.</p>
<p>Although the process of balancing costs against benefits seems clear and rational, choosing the best flood protection structure is not straightforward. Social attitudes to risk are complicated, and it’s difficult not to be emotionally involved if your home or livelihood are at risk.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ross Woods receives funding from EPSRC to train PhD students in water-related topics which include floods. Prior to 2013 he received funding from the New Zealand government for flood-related research and from both the public and private sectors for flood consulting work.</span></em></p>We accept the risks of flooding because the costs of making our towns and cities flood-proof are too high.Ross Woods, Senior Lecturer in Water and Environmental Engineering, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/417132015-06-17T10:12:56Z2015-06-17T10:12:56ZWe need to change how and where we build to be ready for a future of more extreme weather<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85250/original/image-20150616-5829-if0b5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are more resilient ways to build in vulnerable areas.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Resilient Collective Housing', New Jersey Institute of Technology College of Architecture and Design studio project by Taryn Wefer and Naomi Patel. Instructors: Keith Krumwiede and Martina Decker</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The human and economic losses resulting from extreme weather events during the last several years vividly demonstrate the US’ historically shortsighted approach to development. The ill-advised, fast-paced construction of human settlements in <a href="http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com//2015/05/26/in-texas-the-race-to-develop-in-harms-way-outpaces-flood-risk-studies-and-warming-impacts/">low-lying, coastal and riverine environments</a> prone to flooding has long been the American way. From <a href="http://www.loc.gov/rr/news/topics/galveston.html">Galveston</a> to <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/center-for-science-and-democracy/case-studies/hoboken-case-study.html#.VYA0FuuJnww">Hoboken</a>, we have laid out our grids and thrown up our houses with little regard for the consequences.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Galveston, Texas in 1871, ‘but a waif of the ocean,…liable, at any moment, and certain, at no distant day, of being engulfed and submerged by the self-same power that gave it form.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Old_map-Galveston-1871.jpg">Camille N. Drie</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And the consequences can be devastating. Hurricane Sandy, which hit the East Coast in 2012 just one year after Hurricane Irene, another “100-year” storm, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/12/the-water-next-time/382242/">“filled up Hoboken like a bathtub.”</a> The storm’s impact all across the eastern seaboard was staggering: <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf">147</a> people were killed, <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/regions/northeast">650,000</a> homes were damaged or destroyed, and <a href="http://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/docs/2012_SitRep20_Sandy_11072012_1000AM.pdf">8.5 million</a> residences lost power, some for weeks. In the end, the costs of the storm were pegged at over <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events">US$60 billion</a>, making Sandy the second costliest natural disaster in US history after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.</p>
<p>Storms like Sandy are a harbinger of <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tom-zeller-jr/hurricane-sandy-link-to-climate-change_b_2059179.html">extreme weather events</a> to come as a result of climate change. Without concerted action, the costs, in lives and property, of future weather events will only multiply. It’s time we recognize not only that the climate is changing but that the development patterns that have hardly served us well in the past certainly won’t serve us well in the future. Changing course will require a reassessment of risks as they relate not only to <em>how</em> but also to <em>where</em> we build. In our larger, more densely populated regions and cities, massive storm protection projects are both necessary and economically viable, but in many places we would be much better served to move out of harm’s way.</p>
<h2>Climate change means more extreme weather events</h2>
<p>It’s beyond <a href="http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/">dispute</a> that the planet is warming. The year 2014 was the warmest on record, and projections suggest that by 2100, average global temperatures could increase by between <a href="http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Science-Report-Brief-final.pdf">2 and 11 Fahrenheit</a>. And with rising temperatures come rising sea levels. Globally, sea level <a href="http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html">rose 7 inches</a> during the 20th century, and projections for the 21st century are alarming, with estimates ranging from between <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/sea-level-rise">1 and 4 feet</a> globally.</p>
<p>The rise in global temperature and sea level has been accompanied by an increase in <a href="http://stateofthecoast.noaa.gov/insurance/welcome.html">flood events</a> and <a href="http://www.globalchange.gov/sites/globalchange/files/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-chap2-climate.pdf">hurricane strength and activity</a> in the Atlantic. Since 1958, intense rainfall events have <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing#intro-section-2">increased 71%</a> in the Northeast. This May, rainstorms in Texas dumped <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/604259036532326401">35 trillion gallons of water</a>, enough to cover the entire state to a depth of eight inches. Here again, <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/overview/climate-trends#intro-section">projections</a> don’t bode well for the future.</p>
<p>Along the Atlantic coast, stronger, wetter and <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing#intro-section-2">more frequent storms</a> will result in ever-increasing levels of damage – especially when combined with <a href="http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html">bigger storm surges</a> due to rising sea levels, less protection due to the loss of storm-buffering wetlands and more exposure due to <a href="http://scenarios.globalchange.gov/scenarios/sea-level">increasing development</a> in low-lying areas.</p>
<p>Inland, an increase in <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing#narrative-page-16569">extreme precipitation events</a> combined with more floodplain development and greater stormwater runoff over increasingly impervious ground surfaces will lead to more <a href="https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42850.pdf">frequent</a> and intense flooding.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Idea: let’s rethink building cities on floodplains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/48722974@N07/4514870674">Department of Environment and Climate Change, NSW</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dumb development decisions</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.cbo.gov/publication/50230">US Congressional Budget Office</a> predicts that the costs of hurricane damage in 2075 will double due to climate change alone and could increase fivefold with additional coastal development. And without significant changes in our land use policies, we will see additional development. Over the past 40 years, there’s been a <a href="http://stateofthecoast.noaa.gov/pop100yr/welcome.html">60% increase</a> nationally in the number of people living in coastal floodplains. And those floodplains are growing; with each new upstream development, another downstream site is compromised. Over the last 20 years, increased runoff from <a href="http://offcite.org/liquidation-in-the-face-of-water-extremes-houston-cannot-go-on-with-business-as-usual/">new development in Houston</a>, also known as the Bayou City, has added 55 square miles to the 100-year floodplain. </p>
<p>It should be clear by now that the rewards reaped from our current development patterns don’t outweigh the risks we face. In the past, we built our cities and settlements, not always wisely or well, with the assumption that the future would be similar to the past.</p>
<p>The evidence is now overwhelming that the future will be nothing like the past. But we continue, in many places, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/north-carolina-state-hiding-climate-science-2014-12#ixzz3bBDiTN00">to act as if it will</a>. Believing, perhaps, that if you ignore the science, the projections won’t come to pass, officials in <a href="http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/north-carolina-pennsylvania-officials-ban-climate-change-global-warming">North Carolina, Pennsylvania</a> and <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article12983720.html%23storylink=cpy">Florida</a> required that the term “climate change” be removed from official communications and state websites. Claiming “<a href="http://www.texasgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014-Platform-Final.pdf#page=8">‘climate change’ is a political agenda</a> which attempts to control every aspect of our lives,” Republican leaders in Texas “reject the use of this natural process to promote <a href="http://www.texasgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014-Platform-Final.pdf#page=33">more government regulation of the private economy.</a>”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What happens after the floodwaters recede?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/chuckp/52326707">Chuck Patch</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Subsidizing risk</h2>
<p>The problem with this logic, however, is that government action often tends to stimulate rather than impede private economic actions that both drive and increase our vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. In the United States, $18.5 billion in <a href="http://ecowatch.com/2014/07/16/subsidies-gas-oil-climate-change/">federal fossil fuel subsidies</a> not only hamper efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but contribute directly to the expansion of the type of low-density sprawling development that increases the risks we face from extreme weather events, through increased runoff and the destruction of wetlands and open space.</p>
<p>The government further subsidizes risky development through the National Flood Insurance Program (<a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">NFIP</a>), which is currently <a href="http://www.gao.gov/highrisk/national_flood_insurance/why_did_study%23t=0">$23 billion in debt</a> due to claims from Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy. By keeping the cost of insurance below real actuarial rates – <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/11-04-floodinsurance.pdf">20%</a> of its <a href="http://bsa.nfipstat.fema.gov/reports/1011.htm">5 million</a> policies are explicitly subsidized – and by continuing to offer insurance on repetitive loss properties – one single-family home in New Jersey has filed <a href="http://www.njspotlight.com/stories/14/08/27/repetitive-flooding-means-recurring-problems-for-inland-new-jersey/">16 claims for a total of $1.3 million</a> — the NFIP shields property owners from the real risks to which they are exposed. In redistributing the costs of individual choices onto all taxpayers, the NFIP actively encourages development in vulnerable, high-risk areas. Recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/texas-floods-highlight-need-to-reform-key-insurance-program-42235">attempts to reform</a> the NFIP were thwarted by a coalition of <a href="http://www.njspotlight.com/stories/14/08/27/repetitive-flooding-means-recurring-problems-for-inland-new-jersey">coastal residents and the National Association of Homebuilders</a>.</p>
<p>We continue, in many cases, to let individual short-term interests trump collective long-term security, ignoring what climate science has proven with <a href="http://news.discovery.com/earth/global-warming/why-only-95-percent-certain-were-to-blame-130927.htm">95% certainty</a> – odds that any gambler would pray for.</p>
<h2>Embracing resilient design</h2>
<p>There are some positive signs of changing attitudes and approaches. With six innovative proposals funded in New York and New Jersey, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development’s <a href="http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/">Rebuild by Design</a> competition signals a willingness, at all levels of government, to invest in progressive, evidence-based resilient design efforts. Recognizing the densely populated region’s massive exposure to the threats posed by extreme weather, HUD is investing over <a href="http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/press/press_releases_media_advisories/2014/HUDNo_14-063">$900 million</a> in infrastructure-scale projects. They include the creation of a multipurpose berm and storm-buffering nature preserve in the Meadowlands of New Jersey and a multi-pronged protection plan including new bulkheads, stormwater pumps and green infrastructure in Hoboken.</p>
<p>Such projects are a wise investment. The <a href="http://www.nad.usace.army.mil/Portals/40/docs/NACCS/NACCS_main_report.pdf">Army Corps of Engineers</a> estimates that for every dollar spent on preparing for the anticipated effects of climate change – adapting, in other words – four to five are saved in post-disaster recovery and reconstruction costs. Unfortunately <a href="http://offcite.org/liquidation-in-the-face-of-water-extremes-houston-cannot-go-on-with-business-as-usual/">business goes on as usual</a> in many places, where bearing the <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-news-wire/PRNews_20150603DA24960/economic-impact-of-texas-floods-could-be-up-to-550-million-bbva-compass-economists-say.html">expense of disaster recovery</a> trumps investing in preparedness.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Consolidating development is one way to build smarter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">'Resilient Collective Housing', New Jersey Institute of Technology College of Architecture and Design studio project by Taryn Wefer and Naomi Patel. Instructors: Keith Krumwiede and Martina Decker</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Smarter choices in where and how we build</h2>
<p>Rather than continuing to encourage shortsighted development practices, we should prioritize the development of denser, compact communities. Such communities offer <a href="http://www2.epa.gov/sites/production/files/documents/smart_growth_and_economic_success.pdf">economic</a>, <a href="http://www2.epa.gov/smart-growth/about-smart-growth#environmental">environmental</a> and social benefits that make them inherently more resilient than sprawling low-density developments. With their smaller footprint, such communities have <a href="http://www.smartgrowthamerica.org/issues/economic-prosperity/municipal-budgets/">lower infrastructure costs per capita</a> and provide for the preservation, or restoration, of natural habitats and storm-buffering wetlands. They also <a href="http://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth/pdf/location_efficiency_BTU.pdf">reduce energy consumption</a> and thus greenhouse gas emissions at both the household and neighborhood level. When properly designed, such developments balance the individual needs of each household with the collective needs of the larger neighborhood, encouraging a sense of mutual respect and responsibility that is critical to the resilience of the community.</p>
<p>We have the means to encourage adaption of this type. The voluntary buyout of flood-prone properties is particularly effective, from both a cost and resiliency perspective. Instead of continuing to subsidize flood insurance for properties in areas at risk of flooding — an estimated <a href="https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42850.pdf">one-third of all claims paid</a> through the NFIP are for repetitive loss properties — public funds should be used to acquire and restore the land to its natural state. A study done following a buyout of properties in Kentucky showed a return of <a href="http://www.martin.uky.edu/centers_research/Capstones_2011/White.pdf">$2.45</a> for every dollar invested in buyouts.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It no longer makes sense to rebuild in the same places that keep getting hit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jaxstrong/8270843634">JaxStrong</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition to withdrawing from flood-prone areas, the creation of resilient, compact communities requires identifying and guiding development toward more opportune locations. In addition to having no adverse impact on existing floodplains, such locations should accommodate greater density while providing access to jobs, education and recreation through a variety of transportation choices. Unfortunately, current zoning often discourages compact development.</p>
<p>In concert with enacting zoning changes to promote more resilient development, communities can utilize a technique called <a href="http://www.njfuture.org/smart-growth-101/smart-growth-awards/2003-award/chesterfield/">transfer of development rights</a> (TDR). Most simply, TDR provides for the transferring of development rights from one location to another. Because zoning changes lower the development potential for some property owners while raising it for others, TDR essentially severs the right to develop land from the land itself. In this way, property owners seeking to build in areas where more development is desired would buy development rights from property owners in the area where less development is wanted.</p>
<h2>It’s time to wise up</h2>
<p>Each year brings more evidence of the human and economic impacts of climate change. It’s time that we stop throwing good money after bad. Rather than spending $25 million on PR campaigns to convince ourselves we’re <a href="http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local/down-the-shore-justin-auciello/58112-everyone-has-an-opinion-about-njs-qstronger-than-the-stormq-ad-campaign-">“stronger than the storm,”</a> we should start making choices that prove we’re smarter. For while we can’t say when the next hurricane with the force of Sandy (or even greater force) will batter the Atlantic Coast or when extreme flooding will hit Texas, we do know that there will be a next time. And we’re still fundamentally unprepared for it. We can’t continue to bet against climate change; we’ll lose in the end.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41713/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Krumwiede does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The climate is changing. Development patterns that have hardly served us well in the past certainly won’t serve us well in the future. Now is the time to adapt.Keith Krumwiede, Associate Professor of Architecture, New Jersey Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.