tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/general-election-2017-38466/articlesGeneral election 2017 – The Conversation2017-06-23T14:24:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/799572017-06-23T14:24:41Z2017-06-23T14:24:41Z#weakandwobbly: how Twitter revealed the mood that led to a hung parliament<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175371/original/file-20170623-27912-wulm38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/oxford-uk-january-7th-2017-twitter-550359220">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The political events of recent few weeks in the UK have thrown up all sorts of interesting questions. Was Theresa May doomed as soon as she called an election? What drove the young people who voted Labour? How can we make better election predictions? </p>
<p>The <a href="https://lovehatepoliticsuk.wordpress.com/">latest research</a> by the University of Central Lancashire uses machine-learning techniques to shed new light on a complicated picture that defied pollsters. We trained a computer to recognise similar messages on Twitter, thus allowing rapid examination of huge sets of data. Researchers manually categorised a sample of 5,000 tweets sent as @messages to MPs as hostile, disagreement, neutral or positive, then used machine-learning software built by <a href="http://www.uclan.ac.uk/staff_profiles/martin_bateman.php">Dr Martin Bateman</a> to categorise more than 700,000 @messages sent from December 22 to the election. </p>
<p>Examining the content of this huge dataset of messages directed at party leaders allows us to see the depth of emotion and range of concerns behind the voters’ decisions that ultimately led to a hung parliament.</p>
<p>After categorising the tweets, hostile tweets were then further analysed to identify the most frequent terms used over time, excluding common words. </p>
<h2>The tide turns</h2>
<p>The figures show the prime minister’s fortunes turned from the moment she called an election. In the months before April 18, about 9% of all messages aimed at May were hostile, only topping 10% when she signed <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/what-is-article-50-the-only-explanation-you-need-to-read/">Article 50</a>. Within two weeks of announcing the election, the percentage of hostile messages had risen to 12%, continuing to climb slowly through the teens until shooting up to 25% on June 8.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175375/original/file-20170623-21202-vrj9ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175375/original/file-20170623-21202-vrj9ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175375/original/file-20170623-21202-vrj9ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175375/original/file-20170623-21202-vrj9ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175375/original/file-20170623-21202-vrj9ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175375/original/file-20170623-21202-vrj9ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175375/original/file-20170623-21202-vrj9ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175375/original/file-20170623-21202-vrj9ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Leader of a party that traditionally targets older voters, did Theresa May miss a trick on social media where 74% of users are under 44?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-uk-may-3rd-2017-official-632940890">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The launch of her campaign slogan at the start of May was much mocked online, inspiring hashtags such as <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23strongandstablemyarse&src=tyah">#strongandstablemyarse</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23weakandwobbly&src=typd">#weakandwobbly</a>. In hostile tweets aimed at the prime minister, the most common word mentioned between December 2016 and April 2017 was “Brexit”, until the launch of the Conservative’s slogan, when “strong and stable” immediately topped the list.</p>
<p>The manifesto launch heralded a flood of articles about the funding for the Tories’ social care policy in the mainstream media, but Twitter seemed unconcerned, perhaps reflecting a demographic reflecting that 74% of users are <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/278320/age-distribution-of-twitter-users-in-great-britain/">under 44</a>. Instead, “fox” and “hunting” shot to the top of the most used keywords in hostile tweets due to a provision to allow a free vote on repealing the ban on hunting which was barely covered by some newspapers. </p>
<p>But although the Conservative plans to force older people to pay more for social care didn’t seem to concern the Twitterverse, the U-turn less than a week later certainly did. The words “manifesto”, “lies”, “lying” and “liar” all appeared high up, along with the first mention of “care” and “old”. By May 31, Corbyn’s last-minute decision to appear in a television debate hit May hard. The top three words in hostile tweets directed at the PM were “debate”, “Corbyn” and “weak”.</p>
<h2>Corbyn reborn</h2>
<p>For Corbyn, hostility on Twitter showed a very different picture. The early months of the year had seen a slightly higher proportion of hostility in @messages directed at him compared to May, bouncing up to 14% when Article 50 was signed, reflecting Labour’s refusal to oppose the vote.</p>
<p>But although hostility levels varied towards him during the campaign, they were generally below those for May. Just as it had for the prime minister, the announcement of the election marked a turning point for Corbyn. The word “resign”, common throughout the early months of the year in messages directed at the Labour leader, all but disappeared as soon as the election was called. “Brexit” and “EU”, which had appeared frequently for many weeks surrounding the signing of Article 50 also practically vanished. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175376/original/file-20170623-25170-budmts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175376/original/file-20170623-25170-budmts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175376/original/file-20170623-25170-budmts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175376/original/file-20170623-25170-budmts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175376/original/file-20170623-25170-budmts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175376/original/file-20170623-25170-budmts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175376/original/file-20170623-25170-budmts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175376/original/file-20170623-25170-budmts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign dominated social media with positive messages aimed at younger voters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-uk-may-3rd-2017-official-632941133">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>However, Diane Abbott, shadow home secretary, regularly appeared in messages to the Labour leader for two weeks after an <a href="http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/diane-abbotts-agonising-interview-over-policy-cost/">embarrassing interview</a> in which she made a series of mistakes about funding for police. The terms “IRA” and “terrorist” also became common during the month preceding the election, suggesting messages about Corbyn’s sympathies in the 1980s made at least some impression.</p>
<p>For both leaders, hostile messages became more virulent as the election neared, and profanities began to appear much more frequently in the final three weeks.</p>
<p>These are early results for this long-term research project, – and further analysis of the data is needed. The plan is to introduce further keyword filters of profanities, misogynistic and racist abuse to get a clearer picture of strength of feeling.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175374/original/file-20170623-1135-w6079u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175374/original/file-20170623-1135-w6079u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175374/original/file-20170623-1135-w6079u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175374/original/file-20170623-1135-w6079u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175374/original/file-20170623-1135-w6079u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175374/original/file-20170623-1135-w6079u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175374/original/file-20170623-1135-w6079u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175374/original/file-20170623-1135-w6079u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">June 8 2017 showed that once again, pollsters failed to predict the election accurately.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.paimages.co.uk/image-details/2.31526534">PA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/278320/age-distribution-of-twitter-users-in-great-britain/">demographics of Twitter</a> mean older people are less well represented, along with less educated and people based in the countryside, but this type of research supplies an interesting alternative to traditional polling data, showing strength of feeling and issues of concern rather than voting intention. Corbyn consistently received far more @messages than May, illuminating the way his campaign dominated social media with positive messages aimed at younger voters. </p>
<p>The Conservatives have generally wooed older voters with sweeties such as the pension triple lock and winter fuel payments, because they are more likely to turn out to vote. As a party they have been able to ignore younger people’s concerns, such as tuition fees, but this election showed an increased turn-out among younger people that <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election/">clearly benefited</a> Labour. </p>
<p>Pollsters have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jun/11/inaccurate-opinion-polls-got-us-into-this-mess-general-election-2017">heavily criticised</a> for once again miscalling the election result – though YouGov did <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/how-yougovs-election-model-compares-final-result/">noticeably better</a> – but polls have been inaccurate for the past two general elections and the referendum. </p>
<p>This type of research using social media listening and machine-learning tools allows for a much subtler, more in-depth picture than the binary questions of pollsters. It not only gives us an indication of how young people may vote, but can tell us what they care about and, crucially, how much. It was this depth of feeling that drove an election turnout that flummoxed pollsters once again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79957/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Binns does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>How much did social media have an impact on the campaigns of Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn?Amy Binns, Senior lecturer, journalism and digital communication, University of Central LancashireLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/794382017-06-14T13:02:19Z2017-06-14T13:02:19ZGeneral election results weren’t down to youth turnout alone<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173783/original/file-20170614-21334-pha8hk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Youth on the march.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-united-kingdom-june-23-man-441632416?src=fubHTegmZ-NERpzrND7Nng-1-31">melis/shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is difficult to think of an election in which the <a href="https://theconversation.com/surge-in-young-voters-is-the-first-sign-of-a-return-to-proud-working-class-politics-79218">votes of young people</a> – age 18 to 25 – have caused more of a stir. </p>
<p>Of course, the youth vote was expected to be important in the EU referendum, the Scottish independence referendum and just about every general election since the voting age was lowered to 18. But in those cases it wasn’t decisive, usually because the difference between turnout among the young and that of their elders was too large. </p>
<p>This time, however, young voters’ overwhelming support for <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/wiserd/2017/03/10/young-people-and-brexit-the-parties-i/http:/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/wiserd/2017/03/10/young-people-and-brexit-the-parties-i/">Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party</a>, their apparently being on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-would-have-happened-if-brexit-vote-was-weighted-by-age-61877">losing side of the EU referendum</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/britains-young-people-are-getting-back-into-politics-at-last-76682">early signs</a> that they voted in higher numbers than usual, made the youth vote one of the defining features of the 2017 election. </p>
<h2>Youth surge</h2>
<p>Even before all the votes had been counted, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40220032">some were announcing</a> there had been a “youth surge” which would deprive Theresa May of her majority. But there is actually no way of knowing exactly how many young people voted, because the Electoral Commission does not record the demographic characteristics of voters.</p>
<p>Instead, we have to rely on estimates from a range of imperfect sources, such as opinion polls or constituency profile analyses, which can produce quite variable results. At present, the youth turnout estimates for the 2017 general election <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/brexit/2017/06/09/is-2017-the-year-the-youth-vote-finally-materialised-2/">range from 53% to 72%</a>.</p>
<p>We at the <a href="http://www.wiserd.ac.uk/young-people-and-brexit/">WISERD Young People & Brexit project</a> have conducted our own survey, and asked young people why they voted the way they did. Working with YouGov, we surveyed 5,095 British adults online between June 9-13, asking questions about their views of and responses to Brexit, and general election participation. The resulting figures were then weighted to be representative all British adults aged 18 and over. </p>
<p>The initial suggestion from our survey is that there was indeed an impressive youth turnout: an estimated 73% of under-25s reported voting in our survey.</p>
<p>At first glance, this is a remarkable figure. But given that this would put turnout of under-25s four points higher than that <a href="http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7979">of the overall electorate</a> – and is well above <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election/">YouGov’s estimate of around 58%</a> based on a much larger sample – it must be treated with scepticism. </p>
<p>Surveys are <a href="http://blogs.ucl.ac.uk/global-youth/2017/06/11/understanding-youth-turnout-in-genelec2017-some-comments-cautions-and-caveats/">imperfect tools for estimating turnout</a>, particularly because they tend to over-sample politically engaged young people, and respondents tend to say they voted even if they didn’t to avoid feeling judged. One of the most reliable surveys of political behaviour in Britain, the <a href="http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/">British Election Study</a> (BES), has shown that there can be a difference of as much as 10 points between the self-reported turnout of under-25s and their actual participation. </p>
<p>What we can get from the 73% turnout figure, however, is an idea of how young people turned out compared with their elders and with previous elections. </p>
<iframe id="datawrapper-chart-L4dwJ" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/L4dwJ/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="410"></iframe>
<p>The above chart, using data from the BES, shows that 58% of under-25s voted in 2015, 61% in 2010, and 48% in 2005. While our figure of 73% is certainly an over-estimate – and obtained from a survey using a different methodology from the BES – it nonetheless implies an increase in youth turnout in 2017, and a continuation of rising turnout since 2005.</p>
<p>It also shows that it was not just the under-25s who reported voting in higher numbers in the 2017 election. While the increase is larger among younger voters, turnout has increased across the electorate. </p>
<p>In addition, the graph shows that the gap between young and old remains significant: three-quarters of under-25s reported voting in our survey, but more than 80% of the over-40s did, although the gap between under-25s and 26-40-year-olds has disappeared.</p>
<p>What this all means is that we cannot attribute the increase in turnout between the 2015 and 2017 elections solely to a “youth surge”, though that looks to have been an important factor. And, despite the youth vote increase, we are a long way from seeing parity in the electoral participation of the youngest and oldest voters.</p>
<h2>Remainers’ revenge?</h2>
<p>Any claim that this election was the “<a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/general-election-revenge-of-the-young-remainers-b855rn560?CMP=TNLEmail_118918_1942896">revenge of the young remainers</a>” – of young people opposed to Brexit – is questionable. </p>
<p>Nearly two thirds (63%) of under-25s in our survey voted Labour; 20% voted Conservative. So more than four-fifths of the youth vote went to parties that support a hard Brexit – withdrawal from the EU, single market, and customs union. If the young were voting to stop or frustrate Brexit, they were making a very odd choice. Far more sensible would have been to support the Greens or Liberal Democrats who openly oppose Brexit. But the two parties collectively secured only around 10% of the under-25 vote.</p>
<p>Our survey also asked respondents whether they had voted to try and influence, support or prevent Brexit, and this appears to have been an objective for all voters. We found that 78% of those who reported voting said that they voted to influence Brexit in some way, while 84% of the young who voted did so to affect Brexit. </p>
<p>While young “leave” supporters were more likely to vote Conservative (44%) than Labour (42%), the majority of young voters were “remain” supporters who voted for the pro-Brexit Labour Party – 69% compared with 12% voting Conservative.</p>
<p>The most likely explanation for this apparent mismatch is that even though Labour and the Conservatives have similar objectives for Brexit, the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39665835">differences in approach</a> were enough to persuade many young remainers to back Labour as the only credible alternative government. </p>
<p>Another option is that while many young people were voting with the intention of influencing Brexit, it was secondary to other concerns. They may have voted for the party to support other policies, such as the abolition of tuition fees, or to ensure their preferences were not out-voted by their elders following their experience in the EU Referendum.</p>
<p>Whatever the explanation, it seems clear that the 2017 election was successful in mobilising young people to an extent not seen for at least two decades, and this is down, in no small part, to the issue of Brexit. While this youth surge was not the only reason for the increase in turnout – nor was it decisive in Labour’s election performance – it had a substantial impact on the result.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79438/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart Fox is a Quantitative Research Associate for the Wales Institute for Social and Economic Research, Data and Methods (WISERD), which receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (Grant Number: ES/L009099/1).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sioned Pearce is a Research Associate at the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research Data and Methods (WISERD) at Cardiff University which receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. (Grant Number ES/L009099/1)</span></em></p>Yes, young voters’ choices had an impact, but not a decisive one.Stuart Fox, Quantitative Research Associate, WISERD, Cardiff UniversitySioned Pearce, Research Associate in Political Sociology, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/793042017-06-12T18:08:05Z2017-06-12T18:08:05ZSeven political myths scotched by the result of the 2017 general election<p>Make no mistake, this was one of the biggest turnarounds in the history of British general elections. During the first week of the campaign, Labour were on course for electoral oblivion. I spoke to a senior Labour politician who predicted (privately) that Labour would suffer its worst defeat in post-war history – worse even than the 15-point drubbing in 1983. All the polls – even those most favourable to Labour – suggested that they were right.</p>
<p>To narrow the gap <a href="https://theconversation.com/broadcast-impartiality-rule-has-helped-labour-to-achieve-biggest-poll-shift-since-1945-78949">from around 20 to two points</a> in four weeks is remarkable. The election that Labour were, it seemed, doomed to lose saw them increase their share of the vote by nearly ten points from 2015. It even raises the question of what might have happened had the campaign not been stalled twice by two terrorist attacks. But it has also left several pieces of conventional wisdom in tatters.</p>
<p><strong>Election campaigns don’t cause significant shifts in public opinion:</strong> This used to be true: it isn’t any more. As someone who has spent decades researching the relation between media and public opinion, I’m used to telling students that these kinds of changes in public opinion occur over much longer time periods. This suggests that there is more going on here than is simply explained by saying that the Labour campaign was effective and the Conservative campaign was poor. </p>
<p><strong>A hard Brexit is inevitable:</strong> This election result has shifted the zeitgeist. John Curtice’s analysis during the BBC’s election coverage suggested that Labour gained far more in Remain areas than they lost in Leave areas. The Leave vote, in other words, is soft. The only Conservative to do really well in this election is Ruth Davidson, a passionate Remainer. The majority of MPs who want a soft Brexit may now be emboldened.</p>
<h2>Getting the voters wrong</h2>
<p><strong>The polls got it wrong – again:</strong> The record of pollsters in recent years has, in fact, not been as bad as conventional wisdom suggests. Brexit was <a href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9727">predicted by a number of polls</a> and the result was well within the margin of error of most others. Hillary Clinton <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president">did win the popular vote</a>, which was what US polls were measuring. In this election some of the polls were very close, and they all caught the dramatic shift to Labour from week two of the campaign. What mattered was the assumptions they made about turnout. In the last week the raw numbers of most polls showed a fairly narrow Tory lead – it was only when they adjusted for low levels of turnout among young people (as in 2015) that those predicting a larger Tory lead went awry.</p>
<p><strong>Left-wing Labour manifestos go down badly with most voters:</strong> Remember the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/11/how-labours-2017-manifesto-compares-with-1983">longest suicide note in history</a>, Labour’s 1983 manifesto? To many, taxing the wealthier and promising to bring the trains, the post office and public utilities back into public ownership smacked of unfashionable old leftism. But in truth there are many – though by no means all – left-wing policy positions that have wide public support. Labour’s skill was to focus on their more popular left-wing positions. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine that a more moderate, mealymouthed manifesto would have energised Labour’s campaign as this one did. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173394/original/file-20170612-10249-j2g033.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173394/original/file-20170612-10249-j2g033.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173394/original/file-20170612-10249-j2g033.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173394/original/file-20170612-10249-j2g033.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173394/original/file-20170612-10249-j2g033.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173394/original/file-20170612-10249-j2g033.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173394/original/file-20170612-10249-j2g033.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173394/original/file-20170612-10249-j2g033.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Surprising amount of support for Labour’s more left-wing politices.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">YouGov</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Corbyn factor</h2>
<p><strong>A more moderate Labour leader would have done better:</strong>. I must confess I was one of the many who were sceptical about Corbyn’s ability to command the dark arts usually required to win elections. But Corbyn’s main problem was the fiasco caused by his own parliamentary party’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/jeremy-corbyn-wins-again-heres-what-happens-now-65432">attempts to get rid of him</a>. That was when Labour’s poll numbers plummeted – hardly surprising with Labour MPs forming a long line to rubbish their leader in public. The Lib Dems were quite right that they had the centre ground to themselves, but their success was as moderate as their political position.</p>
<p><strong>Labour has to mollify the Tory press to do well:</strong> Make no mistake, the attacks on Labour by the more vociferous right-wing newspapers put them at a clear disadvantage – not least because of their agenda-setting role. But in an age of social media their power may be in decline – something broadcasters need to acknowledge. Although there is no doubt that if The Sun, The Daily Mail, Daily Express and the Telegraph embraced journalistic objectivity and sweet moderation, it would remove a significant part of the <a href="https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/general-election/media-coverage-2017-general-election-campaign-report-2/">Conservative Party’s armoury</a>.</p>
<p><strong>It is impossible to imagine Corbyn as prime minister:</strong> No longer. If the Parliamentary Labour Party get behind him (and its hard to see what choice they have if they seriously want power), Labour are in a position to capture the political momentum in these most uncertain of times. And that’s not something you would have predicted when May <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-39627177/theresa-may-s-full-announcement-on-calling-snap-election">called the snap election in April</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79304/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Lewis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labour’s against-the-odds performance has defied conventional wisdom.Justin Lewis, Professor of Communication, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/791282017-06-12T15:06:22Z2017-06-12T15:06:22ZA new kind of democracy: anti-politics and the funnelling of frustration<p>It’s not easy being a professor of politics. Everyone expects me to know what’s going on and what’s going to happen. But I’m just as bamboozled as everyone else by the outcome of the UK’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-seismic-shift-has-occurred-in-british-politics-79209">recent general election</a>. </p>
<p>“Bamboozlement” has become something of a byword for modern democratic events. Think <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887">Brexit</a>, think <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/donaldtrump">Donald Trump</a>, and now think “Corbyn the conqueror” – the unlikely cult hero leading an “old” political party re-designated as a grassroots social movement. </p>
<p>To some extent, recent events in the UK are symptomatic of a broader international trend that is often (but incorrectly) labelled as anti-political sentiment. But high levels of social frustration and political disengagement among large sections of the public actually veils a desire for a <a href="https://policypress.co.uk/what-kind-of-democracy-is-this">different kind of politics</a> – not the denial or rejection of democratic politics itself. </p>
<p>It is this that explains the growth of populist nationalism (on both the right and left) in Europe and the United States. It also helps explain what happened on June 8 2017.</p>
<p>The success of Jeremy Corbyn and his “New-Old” Labour party was that it tapped into and funnelled the large reservoir of social frustration with politics. Corbyn offered a very different type of politics, both in terms of <a href="http://www.labour.org.uk/index.php/manifesto2017">content</a> (a clear shift to the left of higher taxes and nationalisation) and form (against the clean-cut image of “professional politicians”). Corbyn’s rather chaotic and almost amateurish approach came across as refreshingly honest. Never before have a scruffy beard and an untucked shirt become such electoral assets. </p>
<p>If you are anti-political (against how politics generally works), if you are anti-politician (against politicians who all look and behave the same), and if you are anti-establishment (in terms of believing in the existence of a largely untouchable political elite), then the Labour party under Corbyn positioned itself like a political lightning-rod to channel those frustrations. </p>
<p>This is the key point that many of his opponents failed to understand. The more the <a href="https://theconversation.com/media-bias-against-jeremy-corbyn-shows-how-politicised-reporting-has-become-71593">media attacked</a> and mocked him, the more Theresa May <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40105324">refused to engage</a>, the more Boris Johnson described the Labour leader as a “benign herbivore” and a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/mugwump-what-is-insult-boris-johnson-corbyn-only-use">mutton-headed mugwump</a>” the more this seemed to energise and build Corbyn’s support base. It simply confirmed in the minds of the disaffected just how brash and arrogant the political elite had become.</p>
<p>Funnelling frustration and offering a positive message formed the magic formula for the Labour Party’s glorious defeat. It tuned into the populist signal.</p>
<p>The critical element, however, which offers a key to understanding contemporary democracy, was the manner in which the Labour party secured the support of at least three very different segments of the previously disillusioned or disengaged. </p>
<p>The first segment was the traditionally anti-political youth (aged 18-24) who were dismissed as “<a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/how-britains-youth-vote-general-election-swung-with-record-numbers-of-young-voters-a3561186.html">snowflake voters</a>” who would melt away before getting to the polling booth. The pollsters were wrong. (Again.). <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40220032">Around 72%</a> of younger voters ended up placing their crosses on the ballot paper (up from just 44% in 2015). </p>
<p>Many young people are still angry about the EU referendum vote and joined a second section of the public who were, put simply, anti-hard Brexit. This included remainers and soft-Brexiteers, but the common denominator was deep-seated concern about the increasingly belligerent, nationalist and aggressive tone of the Conservative Party. </p>
<p>This in turn leads to the third and final group – the white working classes, the “left behind”, who rejected mainstream politics and led “the revolt on the right” seen in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/margate-ukip-greens-electoral-reform-farage">popularity of UKIP</a> in 2015. The simple fact seems to be that a large proportion of the “left behind” went back to the left. They chose to support an anti-austerity agenda and investment in public services above the anti-immigrant anti-Europe stance offered by the Conservatives. </p>
<h2>The times they are a-changin’</h2>
<p>It seems then, in this bamboozling aftermath of June 8, that the public is not anti-political. They are “pro-political” but also “pro-a-different-way-of-doing-politics”. They crave the existence of real policy choices and a positive vision for the future. </p>
<p>As I argue in <a href="https://policypress.co.uk/what-kind-of-democracy-is-this">my new book, What Kind of Democracy is This?</a>, the concept of democracy is in flux, and arguably more fragile than at any point in the last 50 years. Politicians need to be popular, but this is different to falling into the trap of populism (the very opposite of democratic politics). Populists tend to offer simple solutions to complex problems, generally by blaming “the problem” on a specific section of society (immigrants, foreigners, gypsies …), and then arguing that if we “the people” could only get rid of the cumbersome safeguards of democracy, life would be so much easier. </p>
<p>“Let the people govern” is a phrase often used to veil the imposition of centralised and unaccountable structures. Democracy has to have limits, but populists tend to deny this basic fact. </p>
<p>For many, Brexit, President Trump, and Corbyn’s 40% vote share have come as a series of political surprises. The rules of the political game have changed but nobody seems to know quite what they are anymore. </p>
<p>We need a new language of politics in order to fully grasp what kind of democracy this is. The language of left or right, for or against, in or out is the language of simple binaries or zero sum games. It no longer reflects a changing world of multiple and overlapping loyalties and identities. Most of all we need a language of politics that rejects the dominant politics of pessimism and offers in its place a bold new vision of collective action and self belief – a new politics of optimism to underpin a new kind of democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79128/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Flinders has received funding from ESRC, AHRC, Esme Fairborn Trust, Rowntree Charitable Trust and other funders. </span></em></p>Predictable politics was in need of a shake-up.Matthew Flinders, Founding Director of the Sir Bernard Crick Centre for the Public Understanding of Politics, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/792032017-06-09T11:58:31Z2017-06-09T11:58:31ZLabour’s two campaigns gave the party one incredible result in Wales<p>When the snap general election was announced, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and his party were considered to be <a href="http://news.sky.com/story/mays-shock-election-move-could-crush-labour-and-destroy-ukip-10842567">too far behind</a> in the polls to be capable of mounting a serious challenge, and many quickly called a <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/who-is-likely-to-win-the-snap-general-election-2017-tories-conservatives-labour-4?r=UK&IR=T">comfortable Conservative victory</a>. Fast forward to the day after the votes were counted, and suddenly this election is being hailed as a triumph for Corbyn and Labour, with questions raised about Theresa May’s <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/will-theresa-may-resign-prime-minister">future as prime minister</a>.</p>
<p>In Wales – a nation so often labelled a “Labour heartland” – this election has been nothing short of a major success for the Labour party. In the <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/24/the-first-welsh-poll-of-the-general-election/">first Welsh poll of the election</a> the Conservatives were projected to win by a landslide in Wales, taking ten of Labour’s then 25 seats. Despite this shocking start, the polls gradually <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/05/22/the-new-welsh-political-barometer-poll-5/">turned in Welsh Labour’s favour</a>, and the party now finds itself with three extra seats and an increased vote share of 12.1%. </p>
<p>This result is Labour’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40213181">best performance</a> in terms of Wales’ vote share, since the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/news/05/0505/stats.shtml#region">New Labour landslide of 1997</a> when it came away with 34 of Wales’ 40 seats.</p>
<h2>A powerful brand</h2>
<p>The power of the Welsh Labour brand can’t be underestimated. Despite UK-wide losses in recent years, in Wales, Labour has been very resilient in the face of this mounting pressure, only losing one seat in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/wales/results">2016 Welsh Assembly election</a>, and <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/05/12/the-2017-local-elections-in-wales/">achieving better than expected results</a> in local government elections earlier this year too.</p>
<p>For this election, Labour in Wales took strength from its local successes and ran a very different campaign to that of the national party: “Welsh” Labour was <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39882354">differentiated from Corbyn’s</a> Labour party from the start. Welsh Labour leader Carywn Jones made it clear that though the national and Welsh parties <a href="https://theconversation.com/welsh-labour-is-distancing-itself-from-corbyn-but-its-manifesto-reveals-shared-ambitions-78118">do share some ambitions</a>, a vote for Labour in Wales was a vote for Welsh Labour, not Corbyn.</p>
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<p>Can we put Labour’s success in Wales down to the power of Welsh Labour alone? Labour politicians have always argued that “<a href="https://jacobinmag.com/2017/06/wales-corbyn-labour-tories-brexit-farage">Labour is Wales and Wales is Labour</a>”. Labour tradition in Wales remains strong it seems, and there is <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-40028526">possibly an attitude</a> that for a Welshman to vote Tory <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=WMClBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA120&lpg=PA120&dq=%E2%80%9Can+act+of+naked+treachery%E2%80%9D+aneurin+bevan&source=bl&ots=Pbinh5xL2B&sig=m-SfmMr7OLMrcTrPOQhRTogMmC0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi469mXxbDUAhUkAcAKHSpHBrAQ6AEILDAB#v=onepage&q=%E2%80%9Can%20act%20of%20naked%20treachery%E2%80%9D%20aneurin%20bevan&f=false">would be</a> “an act of naked treachery”, as Welsh politician Aneurin Bevan reportedly once said.</p>
<p>But it has been <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-38507588">noted many times</a> that there is a lack of a distinctive Welsh media, which raises the issue of whether the “Welsh Labour” message actually got across to the people of Wales. Perhaps strong local campaigning played a significant part in articulating the message to voters, though it is too early to confirm that.</p>
<p>It would be wrong for Welsh Labour politicians to completely dismiss Corbyn’s impact in this campaign. In terms of <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-06-07/labour-are-on-course-to-retain-their-dominance-in-wales-according-to-our-latest-poll/">party leaders’ approval ratings in Wales</a>, his rose from 3.6 out of ten at the end of April, to 4.9 by the eve of polling, while May’s fell by 1.1 from 4.9 to 3.8 in that time.</p>
<p>On election night, many Labour politicians who had previously been critical of Corbyn were forced to answer the question of whether this campaign was a success for the Labour leader. The response from Welsh Labour politicians has tended to stress the importance of both campaigns as positive factors in the success of Labour in Wales. On the night, <a href="https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/872935231665258496">Jones praised Corbyn</a> for running a “superb campaign”, though he did still emphasise that the Labour campaign had worked because of its focus on a “Labour leadership in Wales and Britain”.</p>
<h2>Wales’s winnings</h2>
<p>Running <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-40028526">a seemingly separate election campaign</a> raises some questions over the relationship between the Welsh branch of the Labour party and the UK leadership. At the time of writing it looks like it may be ambitious to think of a Labour minority government but if that materialises, then there is potential for the Welsh Labour government to achieve some of its devolution ambitions. </p>
<p>Jones secured a commitment to the Welsh government’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-35745576">alternative Wales bill</a> in the national Labour manifesto, which “would legislate to extend Welsh devolution into the area of justice and policing”. The Welsh leader has, as Richard Wyn Jones <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBelj3VXcAEivXU.jpg">put it</a>, managed to seize “control of the constitutional agenda for the devolutionist wing of the Welsh Labour party”. </p>
<p>Among all the talk of deals, minority governments and hung parliaments, the future of Welsh Labour’s relationship with the UK Labour Party and the Corbyn leadership will continue to be an issue in need of discussion. But what’s clear for now is that Wales has very much remained the Labour heartland it has been for so long, and that’s all down to Cardiff Bay and Westminster working separately, together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nye Davies does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Aneurin Bevan is reputed to have said that for a Welshman to vote Tory would be ‘an act of naked treachery to his country’ – an attitude that may have served in Welsh Labour’s favour.Nye Davies, PhD Researcher, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/788632017-06-08T11:30:59Z2017-06-08T11:30:59ZHow votes are counted on election night<p>Welcome to election day. Whether you choose to stay up until dawn eagerly anticipating the results, or go to bed with your fingers crossed – waking to find out the country’s fate in the morning – chances are you’ll see at least some of <a href="http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2017-06-02/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-2017-general-election-night-coverage">the television</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en">online coverage</a> from the big night. </p>
<p>This will include journalists reporting from many of the counts going on around the country. There will also of course be the statutory first result, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/does-sunderland-always-declare-election-results-first/">which is usually Sunderland</a>, as well as those reporters covering seats which either tend to be marginal or which play host to an important candidate. At other times, though, it can seem like a lot of the evening involves people just standing around in sports halls drinking tea out of polystyrene cups. </p>
<p>But despite the mammoth quantities of hot drinks consumed, there is actually a whole lot more going on at an election count than meets the eye. And as someone who has been there and done it – as a serial general election candidate (1997 to 2015) as well as a party helper – let me give you the inside scoop. </p>
<h2>How it happens</h2>
<p>It starts when the ballot boxes arrive at the count location from the individual polling stations – these can’t start travelling until after the polls close at 10pm. </p>
<p>The first stage is verification: papers are tipped out and counted for each polling district. Counters are checking that the number coming out of the ballot box equals the number that is supposed to be in there. </p>
<p>You will often see crowds of party workers with clipboards and sheets at this point. This is because as the papers are counted and bundled, watchers can get a good idea of the percentage support for each candidate. And combined with turnout information, this begins to give candidates an idea of the likely result. </p>
<p>As long as all the numbers tally, the next stage involves sorting the votes into piles for each candidate. Papers are usually bundled into fifties – which is all done by hand.</p>
<p>At this stage, party activists are checking to make sure that none of their votes go astray. I have personally rescued votes which were about to go into the wrong pile so know how crucial it is in a tight fight to keep an eye on the table. </p>
<p>As the bundles are completed, they are put aside and stacked in piles. This is when the performance of each candidate becomes visually very clear. Postal votes also get counted on election night, and will be added to the stacks. </p>
<p>The whole process can take hours. And if there is more than one contest at the same time – say a local and a general – this can be slower still. But this year, apart from the odd council byelection, the general election vote is on its own – so it shouldn’t be <em>too</em> late to bed for most.</p>
<h2>Spoil sports</h2>
<p>There are of course always a few ballot papers which are judged unclear, or spoiled. In some cases, this is simply because a voter has used a tick instead of a cross. In other cases, there is no vote, or there is a signature or a slogan of some sort. </p>
<p>Counting staff will go through the uncertain papers with party representatives to make decisions on each – and in a very tight fight, arguments can break out over “ownership” of a ballot paper.</p>
<p>At this point, the Returning Officer – this is the person who is legally responsible – will go through the figures with agents from the parties before any declaration of a result is made.</p>
<h2>What about recounts?</h2>
<p>Agents may ask for a recount for a couple of reasons, the main one being that their candidate is very slightly behind, and it’s looking like it could be a close call.</p>
<p>Of course, after a long night, the news of a recount isn’t always welcome. Indeed, I once managed to make myself the most unpopular person in the building by asking for one.</p>
<p>There are two types of recount. A bundle check means simply flicking through each bundle to make sure that all the votes in there are for the same party, while a full recount does what it says on the tin. If a recount changes the lead, the now second placed candidate can ask for another one. </p>
<h2>And the winner is…</h2>
<p>Candidates often turn up to a count when it has been going for a while. Polling day is exhausting enough without having to stand around for hours making stilted conversation. Candidates also prefer to have some idea of their likely fate before arriving.</p>
<p>Of course, on very rare occasions, there can be a tie between candidates, but the bigger the electorate, the less likely this is. A genuine tie would involve drawing lots or straws – which is what <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-39814634">two candidates in Northumberland</a> had to do in the recent local elections.</p>
<p>When the results are clear, the Returning Officer will then read these out and declare the winner. There is no automatic right for candidates to make a speech, but it has become customary for the winner and immediate runner-up to say something. </p>
<p>For some candidates, this is a key soundbite opportunity and many will have their victory speeches worked out in advance – you can usually tell who has done this because they still sound quite slick, regardless of the hour or the limited amount of sleep they’ve had.</p>
<p>Then after the celebrations, it’s time for a few hours’ sleep, before the winners head off to parliament. And for the losers? Well, after the commiserations, they’ll most likely go back to the day job.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paula Keaveney is a member of the Liberal Democrats</span></em></p>The inside story on what happens at an election count.Paula Keaveney, Senior Lecturer in Public Relations and Politics, Edge Hill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/786342017-06-07T09:50:08Z2017-06-07T09:50:08ZWhat each party manifesto means for student voters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172445/original/file-20170606-3710-hnbax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For students voting in the 2017 General Election, there is much to consider – with fees and the future of higher education featuring strongly in the campaigns and manifestos. </p>
<p>Political parties are keen to attract <a href="http://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Students-and-the-2015-general-election.pdf">student voters</a>. Not only can their votes make a <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/student/news/where-could-students-impact-2017-general-election">big difference in battleground seats</a>, but they are also the potential party members of the future. With a UK student population in excess of two million, there are also a lot of them out there.</p>
<p>So what do students in England need to know?</p>
<h2>Conservatives</h2>
<p>Higher education doesn’t have its own section in the Conservative <a href="https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto">manifesto</a>, but there are many parts of the Tory agenda with consequences for universities, students and graduates. </p>
<p>A big consideration is how controls on immigration would restrict access to student visas. This is aligned to Theresa May’s intention to keep international student numbers down. <a href="http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/news/Pages/Universities-UK-response-to-Conservative-manifesto.aspx">Universities are anxious about this</a>, as fewer international students would mean a reduction in income, possibly resulting in course closures and job losses.</p>
<p>The party has <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/blog/conservative-manifesto-pledge-cut-overseas-student-numbers">also stated</a> it would “launch a major review of funding across tertiary education as a whole”, indicating there may be changes to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/understanding-the-increase-in-university-fees-and-what-it-means-for-students-62985">existing fees and funding arrangements</a>.</p>
<p>A Conservative government would also make it a condition for universities charging the maximum level of tuition fees to be involved in <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-business-do-universities-have-in-academy-schools-50805">sponsoring</a> an academy or founding a free school.</p>
<p>It would also expand University Investment Funds, which provide finance to turn new discoveries into profitable companies or products – such as turning new drugs research into medicine. </p>
<p>This is to improve the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/11625044/The-surprising-success-of-Britains-university-spin-outs.html">commercialisation</a> of university research, which is part of the party’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-uk-finally-getting-serious-about-industrial-strategy-71692">industrial strategy</a>. </p>
<p>The Conservatives would also fund schemes to get graduates to serve in schools, police forces, prisons, and social care and mental health organisations – so they can use “their talents to tackle entrenched social problems”, as detailed <a href="https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/2017-conservative-manifesto-in-full/">in their manifesto</a>.</p>
<p>And they also plan to <a href="http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/nick-faith-to-deliver-world-class-vocational-education-may-must-take-on-the-higher-education-establishment.html">link existing universities</a> to new institutes of “technical education”. These would be <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/6263479/Conservative-party-conference-Tories-promise-technical-school-for-every-town.html">created in every town</a> to deliver <a href="https://www.fenews.co.uk/featured-article/12732-degree-apprenticeships-and-the-new-pathway-into-higher-education">higher level apprenticeships</a>. </p>
<h2>Labour</h2>
<p>Labour’s <a href="http://www.labour.org.uk/index.php/manifesto2017/towards-a-national-education-service">manifesto</a> places university education in their proposed “<a href="http://press.labour.org.uk/post/160515197224/labour-launches-national-education-service">National Education Service</a>”. This is basically cradle-to-grave learning that is free at the point of use. Labour points out that university tuition is free in many <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-finland-and-norway-still-shun-university-tuition-fees-even-for-international-students-36922">northern European countries</a>, and that average debt for UK students on graduation is now £44,000.</p>
<p>Labour pledges to reintroduce maintenance grants and completely abolish tuition fees – their biggest spending commitment, <a href="https://epi.org.uk/report/election-2017-manifesto-analysis/?yutm_content=bufferc267e">costing £11.5-£13.5 billion</a>. </p>
<p>Jeremy Corbyn has also stated his ambition to <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/86362/jeremy-corbyn-labour-could-write">write off existing student debts</a>. Abolishing fees has clearly resonated with the electorate: a <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/25/manifesto-destinies">poll by YouGov</a> shows it has been instrumental in tightening the race between Corbyn and May.</p>
<p>Labour’s policy is popular with those who believe higher education is a “<a href="http://jeremycorbyn.org.uk/articles/jeremy-corbyn-education-is-a-collective-good-its-time-for-a-national-education-service-labourlist/">collective good</a>” and a public service which should be free. It also means people <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-40112033">may not be deterred</a> from going to university because they <a href="https://theconversation.com/poorer-students-arent-applying-to-university-because-of-fears-of-high-debts-78694">fear debt</a>.</p>
<p>The Labour Party manifesto claims: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is a real fear that students are being priced out of university education. Last year saw the steepest fall in university applications for 30 years. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But <a href="https://www.ucas.com/corporate/news-and-key-documents/news/applicants-uk-higher-education-down-5-uk-students-and-7-eu-students">data shows</a> that the number of people going to university, relative to the size of the 18-year-old cohort, is actually increasing – including applications from disadvantaged groups. </p>
<p>It has also been shown that the abolition of fees and the reintroduction of maintenance grants would in fact <a href="https://election2017.ifs.org.uk/article/labour-s-higher-education-proposals-will-cost-8bn-per-year-although-increase-the-deficit-by-more-graduates-who-earn-most-in-future-would-benefit-most">benefit higher-earning graduates</a>. This is because under the new system, these graduates wouldn’t have to repay any money. </p>
<p>For this reason, the <a href="https://epi.org.uk/report/election-2017-manifesto-analysis/?yutm_content=bufferc267e">Education Policy Institute</a> says Labour’s plan is not an effective use of public money, as it will not help the mobility of underrepresented or disadvantaged students.</p>
<h2>Liberal Democrats</h2>
<p>At this election, the Liberal Democrats hope to regain some of the student vote. But their <a href="http://www.libdems.org.uk/manifesto">2017 manifesto</a> doesn’t try and win over students by promising to abolish fees. Instead, it promises to “establish a review of higher education finance in the next Parliament”. </p>
<p>This noncommittal position avoids a repeat of the politically costly pledge to abolish fees made in their 2010 manifesto, which they then abandoned when in <a href="http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/ioep/clre/2015/00000013/00000002/art00007?crawler=true.">coalition government with the Conservatives</a> – although the party has committed to reinstate maintenance grants for the poorest students. These were replaced with maintenance loans by the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-36940172">Conservative government</a> last year. A move which has proved unpopular with many.</p>
<p>Tim Farron also wants to <a href="https://timfarron.co.uk/en/article/2017/1213339/farron-announces-nursing-bursaries-at-royal-college-of-nursing-speech">bring back student nurses’ bursaries</a> – which were <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nhs-faces-a-staffing-crisis-for-years-to-come-75426">recently axed</a> resulting in a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/feb/02/nursing-degree-applications-slump-after-nhs-bursaries-abolished">sharp fall</a> in nursing degree applications.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172450/original/file-20170606-3662-o2kwo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172450/original/file-20170606-3662-o2kwo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172450/original/file-20170606-3662-o2kwo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172450/original/file-20170606-3662-o2kwo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172450/original/file-20170606-3662-o2kwo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172450/original/file-20170606-3662-o2kwo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172450/original/file-20170606-3662-o2kwo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Can students forgive the Lib Dems?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">PA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of particular importance to current and future graduates is the party’s pledge to stop the retrospective raising of rates on student loans. Student loan repayments are a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/student-money/student-loan-interest-rise-33pc-inflation-spikes/">growing issue</a> as millions of students and graduates are about to experience <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39577507">large increases in the interest rates</a> on their loans because of rising inflation.</p>
<h2>UKIP</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.ukip.org/manifesto2017">UKIP</a> pledges to restore maintenance grants. The party sees the abolition of tuition fees as a long-term goal for when economic conditions allow. </p>
<p>In the meantime, undergraduate science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses would be free – provided graduates go on to work in these subject areas and pay tax in the UK for at least five years.</p>
<h2>Green Party</h2>
<p>Higher education doesn’t receive much attention in the <a href="https://www.greenparty.org.uk/green-guarantee">Green manifesto</a>, but the party does pledge to “scrap university tuition fees”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78634/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Gunn receives funding from Worldwide Universities Network, the British Council (administering the Newton Fund), the UK Higher Education Academy, the United Kingdom Political Studies Association, the New Zealand Political Studies Association and the UK Quality Assurance Agency. Andrew Gunn concurrently holds visiting academic positions internationally. This article represents the author's personal views.</span></em></p>Who comes up trumps in tertiary education?Andrew Gunn, Researcher in Higher Education Policy, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/789482017-06-06T13:33:58Z2017-06-06T13:33:58ZWhat if opinion polls had been banned during this election?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172462/original/file-20170606-3677-ma2iuw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The media obsesses over every twitch in these lines.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/SirSandGoblin/status/871860784439152641">Mothra Theresa, @SirSandGoblin</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the prime minister, Theresa May, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-39627175/theresa-may-calls-for-a-general-election">called a general election</a> back in mid-April it was widely assumed she would easily win a large majority. The Conservative leader was far more popular than her Labour rival Jeremy Corbyn, and had a <a href="https://theconversation.com/snap-election-a-win-win-for-theresa-may-shell-crush-labour-and-make-brexit-a-little-easier-76362">clear path back into No 10</a>. We know this because the voters themselves told us – through opinion polls.</p>
<p>Six weeks later, the narrative is <a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-may-she-was-damned-if-she-did-and-damned-if-she-didnt-join-the-debate-78646">rather different</a>. Labour’s manifesto has been praised while the Tory campaign has stuttered. Though a Conservative majority is still the most likely outcome, Corbyn appears increasingly confident while May seems more worried. But again this is largely down to the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/latest-general-election-polls-how-they-changed-2017-campaign-labour-conservatives-jeremy-corbyn-a7774671.html">polls</a>.</p>
<p>Like it or not, opinion polls are a <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230374959_1">staple part</a> of an election campaign narrative. The media often obsesses over the slightest swings, enquiring of their readers and of party leaders: why, what have you done to increase or lose support? </p>
<p>But what if the media was not allowed to report on such polls during an election campaign? It might lead to a renewed focus on policy issues instead of “who is winning”. But banning polls may also hand even more power to political parties and media gatekeepers.</p>
<h2>The influence of polls</h2>
<p>Polls can drive campaigning style and substance. A leader buoyant in the polls will appear more confident and relaxed, so fulfilling the prophecies of the polls by delivering more assured performances. A leader lagging may seem edgy and nervous about answering questions, constantly second guessing how the media will replay their words and how the public will respond. This can lead to the sort of less assured performance that voters can find <a href="http://bookshop.blackwell.co.uk/bookshop/product/9780521874441">a turn off</a>.</p>
<p>But an impact on substance matters. A struggling campaign will seek <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9477.2008.00213.x/full">magic bullets</a> to secure victory, which may simply mean candidates repeat slogans they think have traction, or focus on negative messages and image building exercises. As polls narrow, so does the debate, and candidates will completely avoid getting drawn into debates on policy detail that might obscure their message. Without the distraction of headlines based on polling, however, campaigns may feel more able to engage in serious and detailed policy debate. </p>
<p>Polls also influence voters. There has long been talk of polls creating a bandwagon effect, with voters flocking to support the party or candidate who is <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF00991410?LI=true">the most likely winner</a>. This might explain the recent surge in Labour support, or the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32635871">landslide victory</a> in Scotland for the SNP in 2015. In both cases polls suggested the tide was moving one particular way, which can drive the decision making of undecided voters.</p>
<p>Alternatively poll predictions can mobilise or depress activism and voter turnout. If activists believe their party is doing well they may not feel the need to do as much door-knocking, while if a party is doing poorly they may feel disillusioned (though the reverse can be the case for both scenarios). </p>
<p>Similarly on election day voters can look at the polls and form the belief their vote does not matter or that they will get the outcome they want without making the effort to vote. Hence polls affect the nature and levels of engagement of an election campaign.</p>
<h2>Polls provide transparency</h2>
<p>But polls will be commissioned regardless of coverage, and many parties rely on pollsters to give an indication of how their campaign is going. If polls go unreported citizens will not be aware of why the focus of a campaign is shifting. </p>
<p>Voters may attribute a less than assured performance to poor poll performance and be sympathetic. Similarly they may see an act as desperate and driven simply by the polls and so grow cynical. Without the polls a vital sense of transparency of process is lost, and voters would only be able to speculate at what is driving campaign strategies.</p>
<p>So a campaign without polls could allow leaders to be themselves, unaware of the public reaction beyond that from the audience immediately in front of them. Leaders may also feel they must get more into the detail, persuading through the use of facts and costed promises that can be interrogated, rather than resorting to headlines or negative attacks in order to draw in the least engaged voters. Parties may also court activists more, in the hope that every leaflet or phone call can make a difference. </p>
<p>While many of these things happen in the course of a campaign anyway, the focus can be skewed by the erroneous notion that polls are shifting for or against a party. Comparing the performances of May and Corbyn one might attribute some of their performance style and communication strategy to perceptions of their relative standing in the polls.</p>
<p>All this relies on party leaders and strategists also being unaware of their standing with the public, however. And with pollsters in the business of making news and attracting corporate clients, it is hard to imagine an election truly without polls. </p>
<p>But what if polls were treated with greater caution and scepticism? If reporters were more clear about <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2014.00778.x/full">margins of error</a>, or the difficulty of <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/47/1/54/1907249/The-Methodology-and-Performance-of-Election-Day">factoring in underrepresented groups</a>, then both parties and citizens may not be so ready to be influenced by each percentage point change. In turn elections may be less negative, more substance focused and leaders could perform with fewer worries about the next day’s headlines.</p>
<p>Perhaps reporting of polls simply needs to be better – not banned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78948/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darren Lilleker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The media is obsessed with who is winning, at the expense of serious policy debate.Darren Lilleker, Associate Professor of Political Communication, Bournemouth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/784312017-05-31T12:16:12Z2017-05-31T12:16:12ZBroadcast election coverage needs to do better at explaining devolved issues<p>According to Theresa May, the general election was <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/breaking-theresa-may-make-statement-downing-street-1115am1/">triggered by Brexit</a> and the UK’s ongoing negotiations with the EU. However, our <a href="http://elections.newstatesman.com/the-650/broadcasters-are-now-talking-policy-but-the-bbc-are-preoccupied-with-leadership/">latest research </a> of television news coverage shows that, while Brexit dominated the first week of campaigning, since then social policy issues have risen up the agenda after the parties launched their manifestos.</p>
<p>Yet many of these policy debates are devolved, in particular health and education, with decisions taken by governments in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. Issues such as tuition fees, social care reform and free school meals are primarily relevant to English people – not all UK voters.</p>
<p>The Conservatives’ manifesto proposal to change how social care is funded – now under consultation <a href="http://www.communitycare.co.uk/2017/05/22/conservatives-u-turn-cap-social-care-costs/">after a U-turn</a> – has gained widespread media prominence. But while changing the financial costs of social care have profound implications, it is a devolved issue, meaning that only people living in England <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39964524">will be affected</a> by any changes.</p>
<p>However, on May 18, the day the Conservative manifesto was launched, the UK’s evening television news bulletins – watched by many millions of viewers, particularly elderly people – our analysis shows the devolved relevance of changes to social care could have been more explicitly spelled out by broadcasters.</p>
<p>On Sky News, for example, viewers were only told that “there are changes to social care which mean more people will end up paying towards any help they may need”. Residents from West Yorkshire were interviewed as part of the segment. But there was no mention of social care or the fact that the changes are only relevant in England.</p>
<p>Channel 4, by contrast, did state the English relevance of the policy in its introduction to the story: “Theresa May said it was the first time a government had produced a proper long-term plan for the sustainability of social care in England.” </p>
<p>Its follow-up report did not repeat that information, however. Statistics accompanying the piece only referred to England, and the reporter said that they applied to “everyone” – implying their audiences were not from Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>Channel 5 did refer to the Conservatives’ manifesto pledges affecting England, but again the other nations were not name-checked. A reporter also said wealthy English pensioners would lose their winter fuel allowance. Since this matter is under <a href="https://www.gov.uk/winter-fuel-payment/eligibility">Westminster’s powers</a>, elderly people in the UK’s other nations may have thought it excluded them.</p>
<h2>Clarification</h2>
<p>The BBC and ITV provided the most clarity when reporting devolved issues both in coverage of the manifesto generally, as well as in their more specific unpicking of the Conservative’s social care plans. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171173/original/file-20170526-6415-dve5gx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171173/original/file-20170526-6415-dve5gx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171173/original/file-20170526-6415-dve5gx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171173/original/file-20170526-6415-dve5gx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171173/original/file-20170526-6415-dve5gx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171173/original/file-20170526-6415-dve5gx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171173/original/file-20170526-6415-dve5gx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Broadcast news is overly Westminster-centric.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gina Power via Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>ITV’s opening introduction implied the devolved relevance of social care – “reforming the way social care for the elderly in England is paid for” – but the proceeding report did not mention the devolved nations. In a follow-up item about how social care would be funded, a reporter explicitly laid out the implications for all four UK nations:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The plans, though, would mark a stark contrast to the rest of the UK. In Scotland and Northern Ireland, care at home is predominantly free, and in Wales it is capped.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Likewise, the BBC’s headlines about the Conservative manifesto and the introduction to a package did clearly namecheck “England”:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>One of the most radical changes would affect social care in England – which critics have said will be unfair to those with long-lasting illness.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Missed devolution</h2>
<p>It is not that surprising that election coverage so far has not always made clear that each nation can be affected by policies differently. Our <a href="http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/assets/files/pdf/review_report_research/impartiality/2016/cardiff_university_2015.pdf">research</a> has long shown UK broadcast news either overlooks the devolved relevance to social policy issues or only gives implicit references to it. They choose to state a policy is “in England” far less often than explaining the differences between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>During an election campaign, however, one might expect the clarity and accuracy of policy coverage to be sharper. After all, it is critical for viewers who are deliberating which party to vote for. And yet, in the flurry to report the social care U-turn after May 18, for instance, the English relevance of policy was not always been put in a devolved context.</p>
<p>Of course, political parties should not escape criticism either. Often politicians make speeches about “Britain” or “the country”, without always pointing out the relevance of their policies to the 10m people not living in England.</p>
<p>With just over a week to go before election day, broadcasters have an important role to play in ensuring viewers are accurately informed of the policies that affect them. While stating “in England” goes some way in conveying a policy’s devolved relevance, more explicitly explaining any differences with the other nations might help improve people’s knowledge and understanding of the decisions that will affect them.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The Cardiff University study examined bulletins on Channel 5 at 5pm, Channel 4 at 7pm and at 10pm on BBC, ITV and Sky News. Research by Marina Morani, Harriet Lloyd, Rob Callaghan, Lucy Bennett, Chris Healy and Sophie Puet.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78431/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Cushion has received funding from the BBC Trust and ESRC</span></em></p>Many issues are devolved – but broadcasters often forget it, leaving viewers baffled.Stephen Cushion, Reader, School of Journalism, Media and Cultural Studies, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/777642017-05-18T12:52:28Z2017-05-18T12:52:28ZHow UKIP’s decline could provide a major boost for Theresa May<p>The British prime minister Theresa May called a <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-2017-how-the-main-parties-shape-up-ahead-of-snap-vote-76360">snap general election</a> in the expectation that it will deliver her a substantially increased parliamentary majority. This in turn would give her the “strong and stable government” she hopes for as she enters the crucial Brexit negotiations. </p>
<p>So far, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39856354">opinion polls suggest</a> that the Conservatives have a large lead over Labour. But in order to attain the desired majority, they need to win a substantial number of seats from Labour. There were, however, fewer marginal seats following the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results">2015 general election</a> than after any previous election since World War II – just 42, for example, where Labour won by a majority of less than ten percentage points over the Conservatives. </p>
<p>If the Conservatives were to win all of them, they would have 374 MPs in the new parliament compared to Labour’s 195 and a majority over all parties of 98. </p>
<p>So how winnable are those 42 seats? The likelihood of many Labour voters from 2015 switching to the Conservatives in 2017 is small, so the Conservatives will have to gain most of the extra votes from other sources. One likely source is those who last time voted for UKIP. </p>
<p>Polls <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2017-ukip-hand-tory-landslide-not-fielding-candidates-key-marginal-seats-labour-a7734521.html">currently suggest</a> that as many as half of those UKIP supporters might vote for another party in 2017. The most likely beneficiary of such a shift would be the Conservatives, who are implementing what UKIP supporters wanted – the UK’s exit from the European Union. But will that be enough?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169818/original/file-20170517-24725-107j3nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169818/original/file-20170517-24725-107j3nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169818/original/file-20170517-24725-107j3nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169818/original/file-20170517-24725-107j3nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169818/original/file-20170517-24725-107j3nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169818/original/file-20170517-24725-107j3nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169818/original/file-20170517-24725-107j3nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Axis of power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">R Johnston</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This graph shows all of the constituencies won by Labour in 2015 with the Conservatives in second place and a Labour majority of less than 20 percentage points. These are arranged along the horizontal axis.</p>
<p>On the vertical axis, is the percentage of votes won in those constituencies by UKIP. </p>
<p>In those constituencies above the red diagonal line, UKIP’s vote share was greater than Labour’s majority over the Conservatives. Of the 80 constituencies shown, in only 21 (those below the red diagonal line) was UKIP’s vote share less than the Labour majority. </p>
<p>Some three-quarters of the seats shown are therefore vulnerable for Labour if a substantial proportion of UKIP’s 2015 supporters switch their allegiance to the Conservatives on June 8. Of course, some will remain loyal to UKIP, but in many of those constituencies the potential threat to Labour is great.</p>
<p>Now look at the 42 seats to the left of the vertical line, where Labour’s lead over the Conservatives in 2015 was less than ten percentage points. </p>
<p>In only three of them was UKIP’s share less than that majority, so even if all of UKIP’s supporters switched to the Conservatives in Harrow West, Westminster North, and Tooting, Labour would still beat the Conservatives (assuming no other change in voting patterns). </p>
<p>In all of the other 39 seats, UKIP’s 2015 vote share was larger than the Labour majority. Let’s assume that UKIP retains the support of 7% of the voters in each of those seats, with the remainder switching to the Conservatives. Then all of the constituencies above the dashed purple line are vulnerable – 34 seats where the Labour-Conservative majority was less than ten percentage points.</p>
<p>Of course, not all former UKIP voters who desert that party will switch to the Conservatives. Some may abstain and others may transfer to another party, even to Labour. So let’s assume that in each of the constituencies 14% of those who voted UKIP in 2015 either remain loyal or do not switch to the Conservatives. </p>
<p>This still leaves 20 seats (above the dashed orange line and to the left of the blue vertical line in the graph) where if the remainder switch to the Conservatives, Labour will lose unless they win more votes from other sources. </p>
<h2>UKIP U-turns</h2>
<p>A switch of 20 marginal seats from Labour to the Conservatives as a result of many UKIP 2015 voters switching their allegiance would give the Conservatives 352 seats in the new House and Labour 215, and a Conservative overall majority of 54. </p>
<p>The Conservatives might also hope to win at least some of the seats to the right of the blue vertical line and above the orange dashed line in the graph, which Labour held with a majority of 10-20 points in 2015. At least a further 20 seats could switch from Labour to the Conservatives (one in Wales, one in south-west England and the rest to the north of the Watford Gap), especially in those seats where UKIP <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2017-ukip-hand-tory-landslide-not-fielding-candidates-key-marginal-seats-labour-a7734521.html">has decided not to field candidates</a> because they think their absence might mean that a Labour pro-Remain MP could lose to the Conservatives. </p>
<p>And of course the Conservatives hope to win as many as 12 seats from the SNP in Scotland, although a few may be lost in England to the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<p>It is clear, then, that the success or failure of Theresa May’s gamble in calling an election to enhance the Conservative majority could largely depend on how those who supported UKIP candidates in 2015 vote this time around. </p>
<p>There may be relatively few marginal seats being fought over by the Conservatives and Labour, but how former UKIP supporters vote on June 8 will be crucial to the outcome. And those battles will be fought far from London and the traditional Conservative heartlands.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77764/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ron Johnston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If the purple vote turns blue…Ron Johnston, Professor of Geography, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/775782017-05-18T10:22:57Z2017-05-18T10:22:57ZElectioneering in the social media age<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169811/original/file-20170517-24325-1sse1ht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hands-holding-political-signboards-message-social-639163210?src=281pQ_5_JmrU2ETicF85sA-1-35">lazyllama/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Britain is engaged in a General Election contest and once again <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-conservatives-are-paying-to-push-theresa-may-into-your?utm_term=.vlkYr9KoY#.onOeBmN9e">political parties are investing money, time and energy in their online presence</a>. The Tories are ploughing cash into Instagram adverts and Labour is doing its best to keep up. But is all this effort worth it and does the internet make our democracy healthier or simply add to the confusion and cynicism that surrounds party politics?</p>
<p>Internet enthusiasts suggest that the online world – and <a href="http://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar_url?url=http://sites.asiasociety.org/womenleaders/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/The-Political-Power-of-Social-Media-Foreign-Affairs2.pdf&hl=en&sa=X&scisig=AAGBfm3rig2r55PBFhWSAX8o36l4lA1rzQ&nossl=1&oi=scholarr&ved=0ahUKEwipzoeG6uzTAhVqBsAKHXeTDJkQgAMIISgAMAA">social media in particular</a> – can be a powerful resource for democracies. It offers access to a wider range of information, allows people to interact and comment and gives a voice to those who would not normally have one. But it also offers a platform to trolls and those who seek to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-38168281">profit from misinformation</a>.</p>
<h2>Where does our news come from?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ofcom.org.uk/research-and-data/tv-radio-and-on-demand/tv-research/news-consumption">Television is still dominant</a> as the prevalent source of news in the UK, but more and more people are relying on the internet to source their information. One could argue that this is a way for people to free themselves from the domination of mainstream media. But <a href="http://www.ebizmba.com/articles/news-websites">data suggest</a> that the most popular sources of news online are actually versions of popular mainstream media outlets (with the notable exception of the online only Huffington Post) or news aggregators. This means that there is an <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0163443713499393">oligarchy of news</a> providers online which dominate the scene, leaving little – if any – space for alternative sources.</p>
<p>The recent hype about “fake news” seems needlessly alarmist, especially given that recent data shows how, for example when it comes to the 2016 US elections, <a href="http://news.stanford.edu/2017/01/18/stanford-study-examines-fake-news-2016-presidential-election/">fake news constituted a minority of the information accessed online</a>. </p>
<p>One of the characteristics of the online world is that people are able to comment on and discuss the news. While people are liable to come across fake news and conspiracy theories when surfing online, we must not forget that we are not passive receivers of information. <a href="http://www.academia.edu/download/31854106/conspiracyinternet6.doc">It has been suggested</a> that the internet might be just as powerful in slowing down the spread of conspiracies (and fake news) because people challenge them just as quickly as they spread. </p>
<p>This is not to say that we should ignore the issue of fake news. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Serge_Moscovici/publication/229125643_Toward_A_Theory_of_Conversion_Behavior/links/561f8a5008ae70315b54fa41.pdf">Research</a> shows that small, cohesive minorities which provide consistent messages have the power to shift people’s attitudes and influence group decision making. It is important therefore to increase media literacy to help people spot fake news and challenge conspiracy theories.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"864151215063617536"}"></div></p>
<p>Social psychologists have for decades looked at how our motivations play an important role in the way we receive and interpret information and events. One of the <a href="https://archive.org/stream/pdfy-eDNpDzTy_dR1b0iB/Festinger-Riecken-Schachter-When-Prophecy-Fails-1956_djvu.txt">most compelling examples</a> comes from one of the founding fathers of Social Psychology, Leon Festinger, who – with Henry Riecken and Stanley Schachter – conducted a study exploring how people belonging to a cult react after the prophecy which was at the heart of the entire cult (for example, the end of the world) does not happen. </p>
<p>Some members of the cult find it so difficult to admit what they have believed in was wrong that they come up with extremely complex explanations to justify this failure. What is more, their conviction seemed to be strengthened by this apparent “dis-confirmation”.</p>
<h2>We believe what we want to believe</h2>
<p>Since then, there have been many theories and studies showing how we are not as rational and objective as we like to believe. <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/c42a/48940d80e2f8a3e365060496db1868aed093.pdf">Our thinking is heavily influenced</a> by our goals and beliefs. </p>
<p>As<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-social-media-making-britains-political-debate-more-extreme-61232"> I have argued elsewhere</a>, this is certainly the case for social media and politics. We select the sources of the information we access, we choose the people we connect with and we spend a lot of time and energy trying to prove we are right rather than listening to other peoples’ points of views. </p>
<p>For example, if we believe that our views or the party we support are not represented fairly in the mainstream media (like <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/05/tories-are-big-winners-tv-airtime-war-and-greens-biggest-losers">recent data</a> seem to indicate for Labour voters and – even more so – Green and other parties), we are most likely to turn away from them and look for alternative sources of information like The Canary and Guido Fawkes. </p>
<p>In this respect, it does make sense, especially for opposition and smaller parties, to invest in their online presence to make sure their message reaches their supporters. The problem is more complex for the undecided voters and those who have no clear political views. <a href="http://web.a.ebscohost.com.salford.idm.oclc.org/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=012fc629-eef2-4587-ae29-f53862356fa6%40sessionmgr4006&vid=1&hid=4204">Initial evidence</a> suggests that exposure to political advertising online or on television can have different effects on the voting intention and political behaviour of the undecided. The ability to seek follow-up information after viewing a political advertisement for those who are motivated to do so might be able to tip a voter in one direction or the other, depending on where this quest leads them.</p>
<p>It is once again down to the online community to make sure we use this resource wisely, enabling people to express their views and challenging those who spread misinformation and engage in abuse. Some people may believe the mainstream media is biased and they probably have a point, but that does not mean we should turn off our critical faculties when digesting news online – even if it is telling us what we want to hear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77578/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sharon Coen is affiliated with the Labour Party</span></em></p>It’s election time and all the political parties are locked in a social media battle. But does it help inform political debate or just cause even more confusion?Sharon Coen, Senior Lecturer in Media Psychology, University of SalfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/774332017-05-10T12:35:31Z2017-05-10T12:35:31ZLessons for the election campaign from UK media’s role in Brexit<p>The shadow of Brexit looms over the UK’s 2017 general election – as does the campaign that preceded the vote on June 23 2016. If this election campaign is anything like last year’s referendum campaign, the British public is in for a rough ride. The 2016 EU referendum campaign was the UK’s most intense, rancorous, negative and <a href="http://www.referendumanalysis.eu/eu-referendum-analysis-2016/section-5-campaign-and-political-communication/the-toxicity-of-discourse-reflections-on-uk-political-culture-following-the-eu-referendum/">divisive national vote in decades</a>. And mainstream media <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-analysis-shows-extent-of-press-bias-towards-brexit-61106">played a significant part</a> in framing the campaign and setting its tone.</p>
<p>The tone and content of national media coverage of the EU referendum campaign is documented in <a href="http://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/policy-institute/CMCP/UK-media-coverage-of-the-2016-EU-Referendum-campaign.pdf">a new study</a> by the centre for the study of media communication and power at King’s College London. The study analyses all 14,779 articles published online about the referendum by 20 national news outlets during the ten-week 2016 campaign.</p>
<p>The study captures how the economic repercussions of Brexit, the impact of immigration and the importance of UK sovereignty featured in mainstream media. It also charts how the campaign came to be characterised by mutual accusations of scaremongering, discrimination and dishonesty.</p>
<h2>Controlling the agenda</h2>
<p>In the era of digital media an incumbent will struggle to control the political agenda throughout the campaign. Remain set the agenda for much of the first half of the Brexit campaign by focusing on the potential negative economic consequences of leaving the EU. There were 2,575 articles on this during the first five weeks. </p>
<p>Media was dominated by claims that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/18/eu-referendum-reality-check-uk-households-worse-off-brexit">households would be £4,300 worse off</a> by 2030 outside the EU than within it and by then US president <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/63d42778-7273-11e6-bf48-b372cdb1043a">Barack Obama’s warning</a> that the UK would go to the “back of the queue” for trade deals with the US if it left. There were similarly bleak predictions from the Bank of England, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. </p>
<p>Yet – as analysis shows – after five weeks of campaigning, Leave leaders and sympathetic news outlets were able to shift the debate from the economy towards immigration. The average number of articles referring to immigration each week tripled over the course of the campaign. And they rose even faster once purdah began on May 27, when government and civil servants have to stop making any announcements.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168745/original/file-20170510-28055-1p89qdf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168745/original/file-20170510-28055-1p89qdf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168745/original/file-20170510-28055-1p89qdf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168745/original/file-20170510-28055-1p89qdf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168745/original/file-20170510-28055-1p89qdf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168745/original/file-20170510-28055-1p89qdf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168745/original/file-20170510-28055-1p89qdf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168745/original/file-20170510-28055-1p89qdf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Frequency of coverage of prominent issues during Brexit campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">King's College London</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Setting the agenda was not necessarily an asset. The authoritative figures and institutions that supported Remain and emphasised the economic risks of leaving were characterised – in the popular press and by Leave campaigners – as a <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/voting-remain-is-an-act-of-heartless-snobbery/">self-interested elite</a>. Remain, said the Leavers, represented an establishment that was pursuing a dishonest and unscrupulous strategy to scare people into voting Remain (547 articles referred to “the establishment”). </p>
<p>Economic warnings were framed by Leave campaigners and commentators as part of Remain’s “<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/05/project-fear-brexit-predictions-flawed-partisan-new-study-says/">Project Fear</a>”, a phrase referenced in more than 700 articles. This meant that well before people came to vote, the Leave campaign and sympathetic news outlets had managed to turn Remain’s ability to set the agenda into a liability.</p>
<h2>Important discussions</h2>
<p>Discussing immigration policy during a campaign is different from scapegoating migrants. Immigration was referred to more than 4,000 articles during the Brexit campaign. This was significantly more than were published on health, education or housing. Many of these articles discussed immigration policy and the general impact of immigration. Yet a high proportion were also hostile to migrants. </p>
<p>Migrants were blamed for everything from <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3599970/Migrants-spark-housing-crisis-EU-tells-Britain-build-homes-open-borders-send-population-soaring.html">creating a housing crisis</a>, to <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/655145/Brexit-EU-referendum-European-migrants-benefits-tax-credits-British-workers">taking British benefits</a>, <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3521383/Report-shows-NHS-nearly-breaking-point-massive-influx-EU-migrants-forces-doctors-1-5million-extra-patients-just-three-years.html">overwhelming NHS maternity services</a>, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/07/migration-pressure-on-schools-revealed/">taking primary school places</a>, <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3501785/Scarlet-fever-returns-family-doctors-warned-watch-comeback-Victorian-disease.html">bringing diseases to Britain</a> and <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/670432/Anthony-Stansfield-European-Union-referendum-EU-Brexit-immigration-criminals">importing organised crime</a>. Specific nationalities were singled out for particularly negative coverage – most notably Turks and Albanians, but also Poles and Romanians. The language used to described migration was one usually associated with natural disasters (flooding, swamped), animals or insects (flocking, stampeding, swarming) or foreign attack (invaders, storming, besieged).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168720/original/file-20170510-28055-1rcy7yn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168720/original/file-20170510-28055-1rcy7yn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168720/original/file-20170510-28055-1rcy7yn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168720/original/file-20170510-28055-1rcy7yn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168720/original/file-20170510-28055-1rcy7yn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168720/original/file-20170510-28055-1rcy7yn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168720/original/file-20170510-28055-1rcy7yn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168720/original/file-20170510-28055-1rcy7yn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How the Daily Mail reported immigration during the Brexit campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Left Foot Forward.</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the Brexit campaign is anything to go by, issues whose importance will be apparent after the vote on June 8 will hardly be debated during the campaign. Policy issues that have become central to the process of Brexit following the referendum vote received far less attention during the campaign than the duopoly of economy and immigration. This included issues such as the future of the devolved nations – notably the Northern Irish border and Scottish independence, education and the future of universities, the environment and climate change. The same will almost certainly be true between now and the general election vote.</p>
<h2>Lies, damned lies</h2>
<p>Accusations of dishonesty undermine political debate and alienate voters. Whatever the truth of individual claims during the Brexit campaign, voters could be forgiven for distrusting both sides, given how frequently they accused one another of lying. </p>
<p>Iain Duncan Smith <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/21/eu-referendum-george-osborne-warns-brexit-could-see-value-of-hom/">called George Osborne Pinocchio</a>, Nigel Farage <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/676548/nigel-farage-david-cameron-eu-turkey">nicknamed the prime minister</a> “dishonest Dave”, John Major <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/75764/sir-john-major-brexit-campaign-squalid-and">called the Leave campaign</a> “fundamentally dishonest”. Cameron himself <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-michael-gove-vote-leave-brexit-total-untruths-a7068871.html">said Leave</a> was telling “total untruths to con the people”. </p>
<p>Almost every week of the campaign saw each side accusing the other of dishonesty (234 articles), of misleading the public (464 articles), or simply of lying (552 articles).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168744/original/file-20170510-28061-o0nqb5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168744/original/file-20170510-28061-o0nqb5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168744/original/file-20170510-28061-o0nqb5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168744/original/file-20170510-28061-o0nqb5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168744/original/file-20170510-28061-o0nqb5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168744/original/file-20170510-28061-o0nqb5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168744/original/file-20170510-28061-o0nqb5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168744/original/file-20170510-28061-o0nqb5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Accusations of dishonesty by both sides during Brexit debate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">King's College London</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rancour and vitriol characterised the EU referendum campaign. Overall, neither the campaign itself nor the media coverage of it were good advertisements for democratic politics. If there is one thing that all parties could learn from last year’s referendum campaign, it is that the bitterness of a negative and divisive campaign can have repercussions far beyond the vote itself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77433/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the media again become a battleground in this election, what can we learn from how the Brexit campaign was covered?Martin Moore, Senior Research Fellow, King's College LondonGordon Neil Ramsay, Research fellow, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/769012017-05-09T18:59:56Z2017-05-09T18:59:56ZLabour’s best hope of beating the Conservatives in Wales is a Plaid Cymru alliance<p>It’s been more than a fortnight since the story broke of a general election poll for Wales so sensational that even the British press <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/26/press-wales-labour-meltdown-heartland">sat up and paid attention</a> – and the buzz has yet to die down.</p>
<p>The poll, conducted by Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre working with YouGov and ITV, found that the Conservative Party could be <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/27/1755/">heading for an election landslide</a> in what is traditionally regarded a Labour heartland. A second poll released this week shows that although there has been an upturn in Labour support, the <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-05-08/labour-support-increases-but-conservatives-still-ahead/">Conservatives are still on track</a> for a majority in Wales – their first <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=-PcJCAAAQBAJ&pg=PA195&lpg=PA195&dq=conservative+majority+in+wales+victorian&source=bl&ots=PFg4dVOJtS&sig=8beWUFbaN90xglHJhC2HtKDY2oU&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwif2vCK5uLTAhXEKcAKHTqjAvsQ6AEIUjAH#v=onepage&q=conservative%20majority%20in%20wales%20victorian&f=false">since the Victorian era</a>.</p>
<p>Lack of more consistent analysis, combined with a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-35984859">deficit in Welsh media</a>, has resulted in less meaningful discussion than one might hope – both with respect to the conditions that led to this projection and the possible implications for Wales and its people. But while it may fit the <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/media@lse/research/pdf/JeremyCorbyn/Cobyn-Report-FINAL.pdf">narrative of the London media</a> to apportion blame for the poll to the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, the truth is more complex. For one thing the latest figures for Labour in Wales are not in themselves hugely dramatic and are consistent with <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-poll-latest-support-hits-two-year-low-a7664921.html">recent levels of support</a>.</p>
<p>It is the 12-13% rise in the Tory vote accompanied by a 7-8% drop in UKIP’s support that are most significant features of these polls. These numbers have led some to suggest that <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2017/04/shockwales-yougov-poll-shows-labours-ukip-nightmare-coming-true">Labour’s worst fears</a> have been confirmed: the faithful are being led to the Tories through the populist right.</p>
<h2>Welsh landscape</h2>
<p>This change in voting patterns is not a short story – it reflects Welsh societal changes that <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2015/12/17/no-more-welsh-effect/">have been taking place</a> for some years now: demographic shifts, economic upheaval, inward and outward migration – and changes in belief represent a Wales that exhibits less of the certainties of old. </p>
<p>Indeed, it feels at times as if the current political malaise represents something approaching the spiritual collapse anticipated by philosopher JR Jones back in the 1960s. Jones <a href="http://www.planetmagazine.org.uk/planet_extra/arresting-ukipia">warned that</a> the decline of a genuine nonconformist spirit of protest could lead to a dramatic political collapse in Wales. The rise of UKIP with their <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-wales-36207410">elected Welsh Assembly Members</a>, and their <a href="http://www.planetmagazine.org.uk/planet_extra/arresting-ukipia">appeasement in the Senedd</a>, and now potential Conservative success speaks of such a crisis for the Labour Party.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>When the regime of profit comes to a point where it can no longer be doctored, it shall easily fall upon us that we are facing a new period of fascist counter-revolution.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In summary, he believed that worsening living conditions brought about through unfettered capitalism, combined with the softening of a moral core, would sap the strength to withstand such a movement. While Jones wrote from the Christian perspective this softening he speaks of has without doubt occurred in the Welsh Labour movement.</p>
<h2>Party of Wales</h2>
<p>So what can be done to “save” Wales? In previous years many of the core Plaid Cymru – the nationalist party of Wales – vote would have welcomed the Labour dominance being broken. But now I have seen some party members suggest that this would be a pyrrhic victory in a Wales where the Conservatives have a sizeable popular mandate, supported by a partisan English press. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168607/original/file-20170509-11008-1386610.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168607/original/file-20170509-11008-1386610.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168607/original/file-20170509-11008-1386610.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168607/original/file-20170509-11008-1386610.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=832&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168607/original/file-20170509-11008-1386610.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1046&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168607/original/file-20170509-11008-1386610.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1046&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168607/original/file-20170509-11008-1386610.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1046&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.paimages.co.uk/search-results/fluid/?q=leanne%20wood&amber_border=1&category=A,S,E&fields_0=all&fields_1=all&green_border=1&imagesonly=1&orientation=both&red_border=1&words_0=all&words_1=all#2.31009053">Nick Ansell/PA Wire/PA Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though they have refused to work in an official coalition <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/17/plaid-cymru-and-labour-reach-welsh-assembly-deal">in the recent past</a> – Labour has so far dismissed any talk of <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/welsh-labour-rules-out-anti-12959191">backroom deals with other parties</a> in this election too – an unofficial anti-Tory alliance between Plaid and Labour could be the answer here for the progressive left. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-05-08/labour-support-increases-but-conservatives-still-ahead/">Given current projections</a>, it looks like the best Welsh Labour could hope for is another progressive coalition with Plaid in the devolved Welsh Assembly elections of 2021 – with a referendum on further powers and even independence likely to be part of the deal. This rerun of the relatively successful <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/6278848.stm">2007 One Wales coalition</a> would probably be welcomed in the quarters of Welsh Labour that are far less unionist than its Scottish counterpart. </p>
<p>And there is a good basis for it to happen, given <a href="http://www.welshlabour.wales/joint_statement_moving_wales_forward">the current compact</a> between the two progressive parties, which was also the basis for a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-38695528">joint white paper</a> on Brexit. This cooperation reflects Welsh Labour’s readiness to embrace a more Welsh, devolutionist agenda that makes Plaid a natural partner – evident once again in their <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39837154">move to distance themselves</a> from the Parliamentary Labour Party in this election campaign.</p>
<p>In the face of whatever the next four years hold, the prospect of moving towards further powers would be especially welcome for many in the Labour ranks. Given that the stakes are so high, Labour faces the possibility of a genuine existential crisis for the people and communities that the party represents – an overworn phrase in recent times, but depressingly applicable in this context.</p>
<p>This election is a battle to protect the progressive heart of the Welsh body politic. And Labour should contemplate whether it might be better to take a quicker route towards necessary alliances and reforms now, rather than face a potentially bleak future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76901/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Huw L Williams is a Labour Party member. </span></em></p>The 2017 general election is a battle to protect the progressive heart of Wales.Huw L Williams, Lecturer in Political Philosophy, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/772692017-05-05T15:43:19Z2017-05-05T15:43:19ZLocal and mayoral elections 2017: results roundup<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168114/original/file-20170505-21018-65k4ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Big gains for the Conservative party.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If the general election on June 8 can be considered British politics’ “main event” for 2017, then the recent local council and mayoral elections on May 4 can be seen of something of a dress rehearsal. </p>
<p>Across the country, voters went to the polls in 88 council areas, with 34 councils up for grabs in England, and all of Scotland’s (32) and Wales’ (22) councils being decided. </p>
<p>Across six city-regions, including Greater Manchester, Liverpool, the West Midlands and the West of England, voters also had the opportunity to vote for a metro mayor – the democratic component of former chancellor George Osborne’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32726171">ambitious devolution agenda</a>, which has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/devolution-plan-could-be-a-poisoned-chalice-for-cities-41848">steadily unfurling since the summer of 2014</a>.</p>
<p>While municipal elections are never really big events in their own right – they often provide an indication of the country’s mood. And with the general election only six weeks away, it is likely that all parties will be certain to pounce on any positive results as a means to bolster their campaigns.</p>
<h2>Scores on the doors</h2>
<p>It didn’t take long for a relatively clear picture to emerge as to who the big winners and losers were – albeit with variations within the devolved states.</p>
<p>The Conservatives, with gains of over 400 councillors and eleven councils (at the time of writing) were clearly the main winners, and will likely approach the next six weeks with a renewed confidence <a href="https://theconversation.com/strong-and-stable-leadership-inside-the-conservatives-election-slogan-77121">that their message</a> is resonating with the country.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, UKIP have gone into tailspin – losing almost all of their councillors overnight – though they have taken the Burnley and Padiham West seat on Lancashire County Council. </p>
<p>But again, this is good news for Theresa May and the Tories, who have evidently wrestled back ownership of the Brexit agenda. For UKIP, however, with the referendum behind them and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38057251">a calamitous 12 months</a> since Nigel Farage stepped down as leader, they now face <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-local-elections-results-2017-latest-douglas-carswell-mp-conservatives-a7719001.html">an existential crisis</a>.</p>
<p>For Labour the picture is, at best, mixed. In England, they <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/local-elections-2017-results-analysis/">have been decimated by the Conservatives</a>, losing more than 250 seats – all this within councils where Labour needs to be competitive. Indeed in Copeland, in the Lake District, the site of <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/copeland-by-election-vote-cumbria-labour-historic-defeat-trudy-harrison-gillian-troughton-jeremy-a7596766.html">an embarrassing by-election loss in February</a>, Labour’s candidate Gillian Troughton <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-39814629">lost her council seat</a>. North of the border, Labour’s long-term decline looks set to continue, having <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/labour-loses-control-glasgow-city-10360847">lost control of Glasgow Council</a> for the first time in 37 years.</p>
<p>If there is a glimmer of hope for Labour, it is that <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-04-24/shock-poll-suggests-tories-ahead-in-wales/">the recent polls</a>, which showed them at real risk of losing their grip on Wales, turned out to be bleaker than reality. So although Labour have so far <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/3c6a4e42-9efd-4440-89df-647121c87452/wales-local-elections-2017">lost control of three councils</a>, no other parties have made major inroads. And the retention of Swansea will be at least some comfort.</p>
<p>These local elections also seem to have left the Lib Dems – who were hoping to bounce back after an electoral drubbing in 2015 – with more questions than answers. Having failed to take any councils, and having <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/42069d65-f3b1-41e2-b3e9-35ac9d799a1a/england-local-elections-2017//">lost 22 councillors</a> so far in England alone, they will be scratching their heads, wondering what’s happened.</p>
<h2>Metro mayors and the cities</h2>
<p>Crucially, with much of the council elections centred on the counties, the election of the metro mayors provides a useful barometer of the mood in the cities – something which could underpin the extent of any Conservative rout on June 8.</p>
<p>So despite a very mixed bag elsewhere, Labour’s confidence can be boosted with comfortable victories in <a href="http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-mayor-election-results-live-12991261">both Greater Manchester</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/ad45b570-6d7c-4e65-9771-159210d059b4/mayor-of-the-liverpool-city-region">the Liverpool City Region</a> for Andy Burnham and Steve Rotherham respectively. </p>
<p>But elsewhere the Conservatives have plenty to celebrate. As well as taking victory in the West of England – which includes Bristol – with Tim Bowles, they have also scored a <a href="http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/tees-mayor-election-result-live-12988694">shock election victory in Tees Valley with Ben Houchen</a> elected as the first Tees mayor.</p>
<p>And although turnout was far from stunning, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39817224">coming in at just below 30%</a> in Manchester, Liverpool and the West of England, it was higher than <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/05/new-statesman-2017-local-elections-liveblog">the 10% forecast the night before</a> – which lends a greater legitimacy to those taking up office.</p>
<h2>Victory for devolution?</h2>
<p>Although Burnham and Rotherham join Sadiq Kahn in running three of the UK’s largest cities, the presence of Conservative leadership in a number of the core cities might not be a bad thing for the devolution agenda. </p>
<p>This is because, while it is expected that the new metro mayors will stand up for their regions – and stand up to government – particularly as we enter Brexit negotiations, that they are all not from the same political party may well provide the political stability that ensures their continued survival.</p>
<p>But whether the post will be as successful as the mayor of London remains to be seen and will undoubtedly be further coloured by the general election next month. </p>
<p>Beyond this, ultimately, the results make it clear that Brexit remains the main political driving force behind the elections, with many of the results reflecting the lines set out after the referendum of June 2016. </p>
<p>However, as the dust settles on this battle, and as we approach the main event, it’s becoming increasingly clear whose hand will most likely be raised in the air come Friday June 9.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77269/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Nurse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Everything you need to know about the recent local and mayoral elections.Alex Nurse, Lecturer in Planning, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/772582017-05-05T15:24:26Z2017-05-05T15:24:26ZWhy Andy Burnham’s Manchester could change the face of UK politics<p>So, with the result of the Greater Manchester metro mayor election declared, Andy Burnham completes his move from <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/biographies/commons/andy-burnham/1427">opposition MP</a> to local leader. </p>
<p>Burnham’s decision to stand for the new post was seen by many as a signal that for ambitious Labour politicians, the place of power may no longer be in Westminster but rather the <a href="http://www.local.gov.uk/topics/devolution/combined-authorities">combined authorities</a> – with all the powers they carry. </p>
<p>In a similar vein, this election also saw <a href="http://steverotherammp.org.uk/">MP Steve Rotheram</a> – Jeremy Corbyn’s parliamentary private secretary and occupant of the ultra safe seat of Liverpool Walton – decide he would rather be Merseyside’s mayor.</p>
<p>Greater Manchester is one of six metro mayor positions elected in the recent poll. And while each role has a slightly different combination of powers, it’s argued that the Manchester role is the most significant. </p>
<p>Here, those drawing up the <a href="http://www.local.gov.uk/topics/devolution/combined-authorities">combined authority remit</a> – which looks to cover <a href="https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/">Greater Manchester</a> as a whole – have included policing and health along with the more expected responsibilities, such as transport. And in the run up to the election, lobbyists and think tanks have been <a href="http://www.centreforcities.org/publication/everything-need-know-metro-mayors/">quick to see the potential</a>, and the need to build alliances.</p>
<h2>A victory for Labour?</h2>
<p>While it will take some time before citizens in Greater Manchester, and the rest of the country, get an idea of just how much of a difference this new mayoral figure will make, the implications of the recent vote for political parties and for democracy can be examined straight away.</p>
<p>Labour will of course point to this result as a sign of success. When <a href="https://theconversation.com/sadiq-khan-british-dream-now-a-reality-for-londons-first-muslim-mayor-58945">Sadiq Khan won the London contest</a>, much was made by Labour of the victory here. But it will be harder for Corbyn and others to make as much of Greater Manchester. </p>
<p>This is mainly down to the fact that in London there was a contest – or at least the perception of a contest – between <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-the-main-contenders-for-london-mayor-and-what-do-they-stand-for-57391">Khan and Zac Goldsmith</a>. Whereas in Manchester, while it is true that other candidates have worked hard, no one was realistically expecting anything other than a Labour win. The combined authority is made up of ten local authority areas, nine of which are currently Labour led.</p>
<p>But beside the immediate spin, there is a bigger strategic point here. Because if Labour is smart, it could use its position in city regions – such as in Manchester – to build and maintain a reputation for running big things well. </p>
<p>This could mean that Manchester may well turn out to be of great use to the party as a way of demonstrating ability on a significant stage. </p>
<p>But of course that in itself will depend on making the rest of the country, and the nations voters, all realise that the stage is in fact significant. </p>
<h2>Low turnout</h2>
<p>But despite Bunham’s win, many of course will be concerned about <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/granada/update/2017-05-05/voter-turn-out-for-greater-manchester-mayor-under-30/">poor turnout</a> – which <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/granada/update/2017-05-05/voter-turn-out-for-greater-manchester-mayor-under-30/">was 28.93% for Greater Manchester</a>. For a big job with big responsibilities, this is a poor level of voting. </p>
<p>Similarly <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-little-wonder-people-arent-showing-up-to-vote-for-police-commissioners-33698">low levels of voter turnout</a> were previously seen when the regional police and crime commissioner roles were initially introduced. And it is true that it takes a while for people who are not political obsessives to get used to innovations like this. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, there will be work to be done to make people both aware of the metro mayor role, and convinced of its democratic legitimacy.</p>
<p>But low turnout figures and awareness aside, the role could clearly play a key role for Labour’s regional strategy. And given that Burnham <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/31/andy-burnham-ready-to-leave-westminster-mayor-manchester-interview">recently said</a> he is ready to leave Westminster and devote himself to Manchester, it may be that the the political watchers will need to start keeping an eye on the Irwell rather than the Thames.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77258/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paula Keaveney is a member of the Liberal Democrats.</span></em></p>Move over Westminster – political watchers may need to keep an eye on the Irwell rather than the Thames.Paula Keaveney, Senior Lecturer in Public Relations and Politics, Edge Hill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.