tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/grayndler-6746/articlesGrayndler – The Conversation2016-05-18T19:44:42Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/594722016-05-18T19:44:42Z2016-05-18T19:44:42ZSeats on the line as Labor and the Greens do a difficult preference dance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122931/original/image-20160518-9509-ktujll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Greens leader Richard Di Natale (right) and Greens candidate for Grayndler Jim Casey are eyeing off the inner-Sydney seat.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Before the 2007 election, Kevin Rudd vowed to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/mind-game-delivers-a-win-for-pm-20090625-cy56.html">“mess” with John Howard’s mind</a>. He did and it worked.</p>
<p>Now, the government is trying to repeat the trick with Bill Shorten, and the Greens are their handmaidens. Talk of preference deals is the Coalition’s chief weapon, but so is Labor division over border protection, propaganda about a Labor-Green coalition, and Green opportunism on penalty rates.</p>
<p>At immediate risk for Labor are a number of inner-city seats, especially in Melbourne. The danger for the Greens are unintended consequences flowing from their flirtation with preference deals with the Coalition. It might just work too well, not merely damaging Labor, but also reducing the Greens’ overall influence and impact in the next parliament.</p>
<p>The Greens hold the seat of Melbourne courtesy of Liberal preferences in 2010 and incumbency at the last election. The Labor seats of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/batm/">Batman</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/will/">Wills</a>, where Labor’s vote fell below 50% at the 2013 election, are at serious risk of following the same pattern on July 2 if the Liberals direct preferences to the Greens.</p>
<p>According to ABC psephologist Antony Green, the Greens could not win either seat without Liberal preferences – unless their primary vote overtakes Labor’s.</p>
<p>That is possible, but unlikely. It is even less likely in another seat being targeted by the Greens – the electorate of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/gray/">Grayndler</a> in Sydney, held by Labor’s Anthony Albanese. His primary vote was in the high 40s in 2013 and the Greens were outpolled by the Liberals.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/mpor/">Melbourne Ports</a> is another interesting but different case. Labor’s Michael Danby was outpolled by the Liberals at the last election, but retained the seat on the back of Green preferences. According to Green, a 6% switch in primary votes between Labor and the Greens would see the seat fall to the Greens – or the Liberals, depending on who preferences whom.</p>
<p>Just to be clear, no Liberal seats are at risk. The Coalition gains by putting Labor under pressure in seats it has held for decades, in some cases since federation. Liberal preferences would hand Batman and Wills to the Greens.</p>
<p>According to Liberal strategists, the threat to Labor in those two seats is already forcing them to commit hundreds of thousands of dollars to defend a pair of electorates it could once take for granted. That means less money to spend on seats Labor needs to win if it is to return to government.</p>
<p>This is already an uphill task, given that Labor needs to gain 20 seats nationwide to topple a first-term government – a feat not achieved federally since 1931. Given the current state of the polls, the best Labor can expect is another hung parliament. But that prospect creates tactical problems for Shorten, not the Coalition.</p>
<p>First, it would mean that whoever emerged as prime minister would have to assure the governor-general that he had the confidence of the House of Representatives. Shorten has recoiled from the Greens’ suggestions of another alliance, like that negotiated by Julia Gillard, like Dracula from a stake.</p>
<p>However, talk of any kind of agreement to guarantee passage of money bills is sufficient for the Coalition to raise the spectre of the last hung parliament with the memory of Gillard and Bob Brown joined at the hip, surrounded by rancour and dysfunction.</p>
<p>Second, it makes Labor look more left-wing than Shorten would like, as does mere talk of Labor being dependent on Green preferences to hold Batman, Wills and Grayndler among others.</p>
<p>The votes Shorten needs to attract are in the centre, winning primary votes at the expense of the Coalition. He cannot win more votes on the left. The less centrist his appeal, the fewer votes he will win from the government.</p>
<p>Shorten is caught in a vice between Liberal claims that he is beholden to the Greens and Green suggestions that Labor has lost its moral compass. On that score, the Coalition has now produced dirt sheets on at least seven Labor candidates, quoting past statements opposing turnbacks and offshore processing of asylum seekers. Undoubtedly, we have not heard the end of this.</p>
<p>The government argues this shows what Labor really thinks; that a Shorten prime ministership would again see boatloads of asylum seekers making it to Australian waters. For Greens voters, it is a daily reminder of Labor’s lack of compassion.</p>
<p>It is a similar story with the Greens’ opportunism on weekend penalty rates. Shorten is pointing out, quite reasonably, that legislating for double time on Sundays – as Greens leader Richard Di Natale is proposing – could quite readily be undone by a Coalition government.</p>
<p>On the other hand Shorten is committing a Labor government to a submission to Fair Work Australia in support of maintaining penalty rates. That ought to have considerable influence over whatever decision the independent commission makes.</p>
<p>The Greens, however, depict themselves as the only friends the workers have left, and portray Shorten as betraying his union roots. Another win for the Coalition.</p>
<p>For all that, it is just possible that the Greens could play this game too successfully.</p>
<p>Changes to the Senate voting arrangements mean they will lose one or possibly two of their ten seats. On the other hand, rightist independent Nick Xenophon might just win four seats in South Australia. Family First’s Bob Day might retain his seat, as might the Liberal Democrats’ David Leyonhjelm. That would give the crossbench a more conservative tinge, reducing the power of the Greens.</p>
<p>In the lower house, competition with Labor might produce more Green MPs. But downward pressure on Labor’s vote nationally might ensure the Coalition’s majority.</p>
<p>In short, it could mean greater numbers for the Greens in the lower house, but less influence and fewer senators. This would in turn mean the continuation of Tony Abbott’s climate-change policy and pressure from the business community for further industrial relations changes, not just the abolition of penalty rates.</p>
<p>Careful what you wish for.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59472/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Middleton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the election result almost certain to be close, preferencing will play a key role, leaving the progressive parties in particular in a difficult bind.Jim Middleton, Vice Chancellor's Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/593832016-05-13T02:39:50Z2016-05-13T02:39:50ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the first week of the election campaign<figure>
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<p>It’s difficult to pick which side of politics won the first week of the election campaign. Michelle Grattan tells University of Canberra acting vice-chancellor Professor Frances Shannon that with both Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull never having fought an election as leader, this was something of a training week.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59383/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s difficult to pick which side of politics won the first week of the election campaign.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/591102016-05-09T12:55:54Z2016-05-09T12:55:54ZGo target the Liberals, Albanese tells the Greens on his tail<p>Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is not the only senior politician having conniptions about his seat. Anthony Albanese was in his New South Wales electorate of Grayndler on Monday, the first full day of the campaign, sandbagging it against the Greens.</p>
<p>Greens leader Richard Di Natale was in Grayndler too, sledging Albanese and declaring his party would give the seat “an almighty shake”. Describing the former deputy prime minister as “a decent bloke”, Di Natale said what counted was not positive rhetoric, but “how you back it up”.</p>
<p>Unlike Labor and Albanese, the Greens hadn’t voted to lock up young asylum seeker kids, Di Natale said. They didn’t support new coal mines. Labor and Albanese had joined with the Liberals against setting up an anti-corruption watchdog and ending large donations from the big end of town, he said.</p>
<p>Albanese gave as good as he got. What was Di Natale doing targeting him rather than a Coalition seat? The Greens were giving priority to “getting [member for Melbourne] Adam Bandt someone to talk to during Question Time over defeating the Malcolm Turnbull-led Coalition government”. As for voting records, had the Greens voted for a price on carbon in 2009 in the Senate “it would have been entrenched”.</p>
<p>Labor’s bad blood against the Greens runs hot. It was evident during the recent all-night debate over a new Senate voting system, when the opposition heaped abuse on them for siding with the Coalition to get the change through.</p>
<p>There is real fear in Labor that the Greens, having won and then held the former Labor seat of Melbourne, could threaten other ALP House of Representatives seats. This is a long-term Green ambition; they even eye off the Liberal seat of Higgins, once occupied by Peter Costello. Realistically, if the Greens could seize one seat on July 2, as well as retaining Melbourne, they would have taken a big stride.</p>
<p>While there has been speculation about various Labor electorates, the most vulnerable are Batman and Wills in Melbourne, and Grayndler, which has two state Greens seats in it.</p>
<p>Batman is held by David Feeney, a factional player from the right, who replaced former minister Martin Ferguson in 2013. Feeney switched houses under a deal because he had an unwinnable place on the Senate ticket. In Wills, Kelvin Thomson, on the “green” end of Labor, has retired, leaving somewhat exposed a seat that was for a time in the 1990s held by left-leaning independent Phil Cleary.</p>
<p>Whether the Greens have any prospects in any of the seats will depend substantially on whether the Liberals preference them. The Victorian Liberals, after putting the Greens in the freezer at the 2010 and 2014 state elections and the 2013 federal election, are now reconsidering the position on preferences. The outcome, which would be in consultation with the federal Liberals, is uncertain. The Greens would not preference the Liberals but could issue “open” tickets in some seats.</p>
<p>Given the pressure on him from the Greens, the last thing Albanese needed on Monday was the Labor candidate for Melbourne, Sophie Ismail, telling Fairfax Media: “I have concerns about turnbacks, I don’t think they should be on the table”.</p>
<p>The comment put Bill Shorten on the spot. He could only keep repeating that
“Labor’s policy is clear” – he would not let the people smugglers get back into business.</p>
<p>When he was asked about Ismail’s comment, Albanese – who at the 2015 ALP national conference voted (on the losing side) against turnbacks – said: “I’m not about condemning people for putting forward their views. They’re entitled to do so.”</p>
<p>Albanese has well-honed political skills, displayed both within the Labor Party – he supported Kevin Rudd’s return to the leadership while maintaining a functioning relationship with Julia Gillard – and electorally.</p>
<p>If Labor stays in opposition and Shorten performs only middlingly at the election, Albanese – whose biography is coming out soon – potentially would be a strong contender for the leadership.</p>
<p>Like Joyce, Albanese is one of the best “retail” politicians in the parliament. They are much in demand by their respective sides to campaign in the marginal seats. But each is having to spend more time than is ideal defending his home turf. Albanese will be in Grayndler again on Tuesday.</p>
<p>The Conversation’s poll and election analyst, Adrian Beaumont, predicts Albanese will hold Grayndler comfortably even if the Liberals preference the Greens, “as he is a high-profile incumbent, and Labor won 46% post-redistribution in that seat”.</p>
<p>In the end, the odds are against either Joyce or Albanese losing his seat. But neither is willing to leave anything to chance.</p>
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Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is not the only senior politician having conniptions about his seat. Anthony Albanese was in his New South Wales electorate of Grayndler on Monday, the first full day…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/169602013-08-20T20:26:23Z2013-08-20T20:26:23ZGrayndler out of the mix for the Greens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29408/original/8jxvm2tn-1376631788.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Deputy prime minister Anthony Albanese will likely hold off a push from the Greens to claim his inner city Sydney seat of Grayndler.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The ALP is set to retain deputy prime minister Anthony Albanese’s seat of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Grayndler">Grayndler</a> following the Liberal Party’s decision to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-power-of-liberal-preferences-how-will-it-impact-on-the-greens-17036">preference Labor over the Greens</a> in the 2013 election. While the Greens made a <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-121.htm">strong showing in 2010</a> with a two-party preferred vote of 45.8%, Albanese’s margin of 4.2% is considerably strengthened by the Greens’ dependence on preferences from the Liberal Party who poll about one-quarter of the primary vote in Grayndler.</p>
<p>Grayndler, a tight little 32 square kilometre bundle of suburbs in Sydney’s inner west, is an area that has undergone waves of change since its establishment post-war. Originally a working-class electorate filled with small, tightly-packed houses, its central suburb of Marrickville was first a centre of post-war southern European immigration, and latterly of Asian settlement in the 1970s and beyond.</p>
<p>The electorate is interesting in that it is a family affair and a haven for deputy leadership. Albanese’s wife Carmel Tebbutt represents the state seat of <a href="http://www.pastvtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/SGE2011/la/la_district_summary-Marrickville.htm">Marrickville</a> (and is a former deputy premier of NSW), while Linda Burney, the state MP for <a href="http://www.pastvtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/SGE2011/la/la_district_summary-Canterbury.htm">Canterbury</a>, is the current deputy opposition leader. As such, it has all the hallmarks of a Labor stronghold.</p>
<p>Its status as a former migrant electorate is still clear in that <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/CED118">more than half</a> of the electorate had both parents born overseas. However, as the cost of housing continues to increase in the area, this first generation of migrants is being replaced by renovators and young professionals. The current period of extended low interest rates has traction with this group, being a proxy for government economic management.</p>
<p>The electorate has 13% more professionals than the national average, with a corresponding impact on average income and lattes per capita consumed (both well above the national average). This does, however, tend to sit across a gradient from the fashionable east to the more suburban west.</p>
<p>Within the ALP, Albanese is considered to be a good local campaigner, willing to husband his resources carefully to protect his base. Both Albanese and Tebbutt are well recognised figures in the electorate, with a strong local presence and a part of the local school community. ALP investment in schools infrastructure is therefore an area of past performance that Albanese is able to highlight in his campaign. </p>
<p>Interestingly, in flagging his <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/stylists-say-new-deputy-prime-minister-anthony-albanese-has-undergone-makeover/story-fnho52ip-1226675624668">cultural Catholicism</a> recently and yet with a record as a strong supporter of the GLBTI community, Albanese manages to bridge well the considerable differences between the inner city suburbs and the outer ones in Grayndler. He is in a good position to strategically use the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-12/gay-marriage-advocates-welcome-rudds-pledge/4880090">recent announcement</a> of prime minister Kevin Rudd of a bill recognising same-sex marriage in the first 100 days of a re-elected Labor government.</p>
<p>The Greens are fielding a strong candidate for the seat, <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/vision-of-turning-albaneses-seat-into-greenland/story-e6frfkp9-1226675081424">Hall Greenland</a>. Greenland has a background in both community organising and running campaigns against high-rise development. This is an issue that mobilises his party base, while running up against a general push by the state government to allow greater levels of transit-oriented development in response to Sydney’s continuing population pressures. </p>
<p>People in Grayndler are very high public transport users, an issue the Greens have attempted to own. On a similar front, Greenland is also active on the issue of aircraft noise, which will allow him to criticise Albanese’s inability to move the intractable issue of the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/second-airport-plan-a-beatup-to-win-election-20130726-2qp1v.html">second Sydney airport</a> while transport minister in the first Rudd government.</p>
<p>In the 2011 NSW state election, Fiona Byrne, the former Greens mayor of Marrickville, was touted as likely to unseat Tebbutt as part of the general rout of state Labor, but <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ratepayers-wont-foot-37m-israel-boycott-bill-mayor-20110414-1df3c.html">ran foul</a> of the party’s support for the pro-Palestinian Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions campaign against Israel. The seat was the site of concerted illegal campaigning tactics, including unauthorised signs, stickers stating the Greens supported terrorism and accusations of push-polling. The source of these tactics remains unknown.</p>
<p>The Liberals’ candidate for this election is much stronger than their 2010 candidate, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/tertiary-education/club-no-stranger-to-scraps-as-party-factions-vie-for-influence-20121001-26vl8.html">Alex Dore</a> - of the controversy surrounding the Liberal Students’ Club of Sydney University fame - in solicitor and university lecturer <a href="https://www.nsw.liberal.org.au/grayndler">Cedric Spencer</a>. Spencer’s campaign appears to largely be focused on mirroring the national campaign themes, though he has an established presence in the community through his volunteering.</p>
<p>The votes that Spencer pulls in will primarily support the ALP and Albanese. This will place the seat outside of the Greens’ reach in 2013.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter John Chen is a volunteer with the Australian Greens and lives in the seat of Grayndler.</span></em></p>The ALP is set to retain deputy prime minister Anthony Albanese’s seat of Grayndler following the Liberal Party’s decision to preference Labor over the Greens in the 2013 election. While the Greens made…Peter John Chen, Lecturer in Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.