tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/hillary-clinton-2402/articlesHillary Clinton – The Conversation2024-03-27T12:38:28Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2261942024-03-27T12:38:28Z2024-03-27T12:38:28ZHow to have the hard conversations about who really won the 2020 presidential election − before Election Day 2024<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584166/original/file-20240325-9980-p8v9yo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C35%2C7951%2C5261&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's important to democracy to have difficult discussions across political lines.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/chat-bubbles-with-mouths-showing-sharp-teeth-royalty-free-image/1399061447">MirageC/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Millions of Americans believe that the <a href="https://www.prri.org/spotlight/after-three-years-and-many-indictments-the-big-lie-that-led-to-the-january-6th-insurrection-is-still-believed-by-most-republicans/">2020 presidential election was stolen</a>. They think Donald Trump won by a landslide in 2020 and lost only because of widespread voter fraud. Some of the people who hold these views are my relatives, neighbors and professional associates. Because I reject these claims, it can be difficult to talk to those who accept them.</p>
<p>Often, we avoid the topic of politics. But as a <a href="https://millercenter.org/experts/robert-strong">political science scholar</a>, I expect that as the 2024 election gets closer, conversations about 2020 will become more common, more important and more unavoidable.</p>
<p>So, what does someone like me, who concludes that the last presidential election was legitimately won by Joe Biden, say to those who think that Trump was the actual winner? Here are a few of the questions I raise in my own conversations about 2020.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rioters climb the walls of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">This is not what democracy looks like.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CapitolRiotSeattlePolice/d55c50d30d884d738559a35b01ecf9be/photo">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span>
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<h2>Polls and pollsters</h2>
<p>I usually begin by asking about polls. Polls and pollsters are often wrong about close elections, and many prominent pollsters tilt toward Democrats. They predicted a Hillary <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/">Clinton victory in 2016</a>.</p>
<p>But even those polls and pollsters would be unlikely to have missed a 2020 landslide for Trump – or Biden. Unless, of course, as was the case, <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/jan/07/donald-trump/trump-clings-fantasy-landslide-victory-egging-supp/">the landslide did not exist</a>. </p>
<p>Recent political <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/">polling has been less accurate</a> than many people expect. And all polls have margins of error: They provide an imperfect picture of public sentiment in a closely divided nation.</p>
<p>That said, even polls with a sizable margin of error should have been able to find a Trump landslide in 2020 – but they didn’t, because there wasn’t one. The last American presidential landslide, Reagan in 1984, was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1984/10/31/conflicting-campaign-polls-point-to-one-certainty-some-are-wrong/30636083-2905-4e24-93a2-73ba76a7a587/">clearly seen in preelection polling</a>.</p>
<p>If millions of fraudulent votes were cast in 2020, reputable pollsters would have discovered a discrepancy between their data and official election results. This would have been particularly true for the pollsters trusted by Republicans.</p>
<p>Trump himself has often <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/10/7/21506391/rasmussen-poll-biden-vs-trump-landslide">praised the Rasmussen polling organization</a>. But just before Election Day 2020, Rasmussen reported that Trump could win a narrow victory in the Electoral College <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-favorite-poll-shows-him-narrowly-losing-presidency-one-day-before-election-1544099">only if he swept all the toss-up states</a> – a daunting task. Rasmussen found no evidence of a forthcoming Trump landslide and projected that Biden would get 51% of the national popular vote. That’s almost exactly the percentage he received <a href="https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2020.pdf#page=10">in the official count</a>.</p>
<h2>Where is the congressional investigation of 2020 voter fraud?</h2>
<p>The House Republicans have not convened a special committee to investigate the 2020 election. Such a committee could summon witnesses, hold high-profile hearings and issue a detailed report. It could explain to the American people exactly what happened in the presidential election, how the election was stolen and who was responsible. If the evidence collected justified it, they could make criminal referrals to the Justice Department. <a href="https://january6th-benniethompson.house.gov/">The Democrats did all of these things in connection to the events of Jan. 6, 2021</a>. </p>
<p>What could be more important to the American public than a full and fair account of 2020 voter fraud? Donald Trump calls it <a href="https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1013604/trump-announces-the-crime-of-the-century-a-forthcoming-book-about-the-2020">“one of the greatest crimes in the history of our country</a>.” Yet the Republicans on Capitol Hill have not authorized a major public and professional investigation of those alleged crimes. Perhaps, as former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney claims, most Republican members of Congress know that Trump’s statements about massive voter fraud are false. </p>
<p>It would be hard, even for Congress, to investigate something that did not happen.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney says many Republicans in Congress don’t believe Trump’s lies.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>When the big lie goes to court</h2>
<p>Like Congress, or professional pollsters, the judicial system has ways to expose election fraud. Immediately after the 2020 election, the Trump campaign <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2021/01/06/trumps-failed-efforts-overturn-election-numbers/4130307001/">went to court more than 60 times</a> to challenge voting procedures and results. </p>
<p>They lost in <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2021/01/06/trumps-failed-efforts-overturn-election-numbers/4130307001/">all but one case</a>. </p>
<p>Related lawsuits have also been decided against those who claimed that the 2020 election was stolen. </p>
<p>For instance, Fox News was sued for defamation because of broadcasts <a href="https://casetext.com/case/us-dominion-inc-v-fox-news-network-llc-1">linking Dominion voting machines to allegations of a rigged 2020 election</a>. Fox, a powerful and wealthy corporation, could have taken the case to trial but didn’t. Instead, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/18/1170339114/fox-news-settles-blockbuster-defamation-lawsuit-with-dominion-voting-systems">it paid three-quarters of a billion dollars to settle the case</a>.</p>
<p>In another case, Rudy Giuliani has been ordered to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/rudy-giuliani-georgia-election-workers-defamation-case-cde7186493b3a1bd9ab89bc65f0f5b06">pay $148 million to Georgia election workers he falsely accused of misconduct</a>. More civil suits are pending.</p>
<p>Trump’s claim of a win in 2020 – known by its critics as <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/forced-to-choose-between-trumps-big-lie-and-liz-cheney-the-house-gop-chooses-the-lie">“The Big Lie”</a> – has regularly and repeatedly lost in court. If there were any truth to what Trump and his supporters say about the 2020 election, shouldn’t there be lawyers who present effective evidence and judges who give it credence? So far, there are not.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump doesn’t think the U.S. is a democracy.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Democracy in America?</h2>
<p>Hard conversations about election integrity often come around to a more fundamental question: Do we still have democracy in America?</p>
<p>I think we do. Our democracy is fragile and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/11/1071082955/imagine-another-american-civil-war-but-this-time-in-every-state">under greater stress than at any time since the Civil War</a>. But it is still a democracy. The rule of law may be slow, but it prevails. Harassed and threatened election officials do their jobs with courage and integrity. Joe Biden, the official winner of the 2020 election, sits in the White House.</p>
<p>Supporters of Donald Trump are likely to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0295747">think that the U.S. is not a democracy</a>. In their beliefs about how America works, millions of illegal votes are cast and counted on a regular basis; news is fake; violence is justified to halt fraudulent government proceedings; and it’s OK for a presidential candidate <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/11/donald-trump-dictator-one-day-reelected/71880010007/">to want to be a dictator</a> – if only for a day.</p>
<p>In a functioning democracy, everyone has constitutionally protected rights to hold and express their political opinions. But I believe we should all be willing to discuss and evaluate the evidence that supports, or fails to support, those opinions.</p>
<p>There is no verified evidence of widespread voter fraud in 2020. You can’t find it in the polls. You won’t get it from Congress. Claims of election wrongdoing have failed in the courts. I sometimes ask my friends what I am missing. Maybe what’s really missing is a readiness for the hard political conversations that I believe must be had in the 2024 election season.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert A. Strong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What does someone like me, who believes that the last presidential election was legitimately won by Joe Biden, say to those who think the 2020 election was stolen?Robert A. Strong, Emeritus Professor of Politics, Washington and Lee University; Senior Fellow, Miller Center, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254342024-03-12T12:30:55Z2024-03-12T12:30:55ZYes, sexism among Republican voters helped sink Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580810/original/file-20240309-28-5iqh5e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C12%2C8194%2C5475&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump supporters drive by a rally for Nikki Haley on Feb.1, 2024, in Columbia, S.C. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flag-festooned-truck-in-support-of-former-president-donald-news-photo/1978923483?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Following multiple defeats in the Republican presidential primary, including in <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/25/politics/nikki-haley-south-carolina-loss/index.html">her home state</a> of South Carolina, Nikki Haley <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/us/politics/haley-out-speech-transcript.html">suspended her bid</a> for the Republican presidential nomination on March 6, 2024.</p>
<p>Barring unforeseen events, Donald Trump will be the GOP candidate in November’s election.</p>
<p>Haley’s failure to pose a more serious challenge to Trump may be puzzling to some. After all, she was <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/14/nikki-haley-2024-bio-what-you-need-to-know-00082742">a formidable candidate with notable political experience</a> in both federal and state government. She had outlasted prominent Republican officials, including <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ron-desantis-250c8ed4b49843350e258f0c2754c8ba">Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis</a>, former <a href="https://apnews.com/article/christie-presidential-race-5e974cfa407d39af878f066a71af35ad">New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/tim-scott-drops-out-2024-race-b9cc8fbeba57a123789d8d0484164e38#:%7E:text=COLUMBIA%2C%20S.C.%20(AP)%20%E2%80%94,in%20Iowa's%20leadoff%20GOP%20caucuses.">South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott</a>, in the GOP primary.</p>
<p>And Trump has serious political liabilities. Although he is wildly popular among Republican primary voters, Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/us/politics/donald-trump-primary-wins.html">support is much weaker among likely general election voters</a>. Trump’s unpopularity served as <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/11/09/nation/vote-counting-drags-signs-trumpisms-drag-red-wave/">a drag on Republicans’ performance</a> in the 2018 midterm elections, likely cost him a winnable presidential election in 2020 and contributed to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/trump-candidates-underperform-2022/">Republicans’ underperformance in the 2022 midterms</a>.</p>
<p>He also faces indictments on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/trump-charges-jan-6-classified-documents/">91 state and federal charges</a> ranging from plotting to overturn the 2020 election to withholding classified documents in his home in Florida. And observers, <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5107004/haley-targets-biden-trumps-age-vows-stay-race">including Haley</a>, have raised serious questions about his age, physical fitness and mental acuity.</p>
<p>Given her strengths and Trump’s vulnerabilities, why did Haley’s primary campaign fall flat? Of course, part of the reason is Trump’s unique appeal with Republican primary voters. Over the past eight years, Trump has forged a distinctive bond with his voters that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/16/politics/trump-supporters-indictments-mug-shot/index">leads them to overlook</a> his significant political weaknesses. </p>
<p>But sexism is also an important part of the explanation.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three people standing on a stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Nikki Haley, left, outlasted many strong GOP primary candidates, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidates-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1705066202?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Trump’s history of sexism</h2>
<p>Back in 2016, Trump frequently <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/10/23/498878356/sexism-is-out-in-the-open-in-the-2016-campaign-that-may-have-been-inevitable">made sexist remarks</a> directed at Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. He called her a “nasty woman,” said she does not have the “presidential look” and contended that Clinton was “playing the woman card.” </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.12737">Research shows</a> that voters with more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-018-9468-2">sexist</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfy003">attitudes</a> were more likely to support Trump in 2016. </p>
<p>Eight years later, Trump employed a similar sexist playbook, questioning Haley’s qualifications, commenting on her appearance, characterizing her as “<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-ramps-attacks-overly-ambitious-haley-potential-2024-gop-rivals">overly ambitious</a>” and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/12/politics/nikki-haley-husband-trump-attack/index.html">mocking her</a> for having an absentee husband. Haley’s husband is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/us/politics/nikki-haley-husband-michael.html">in the South Carolina National Guard</a> and currently deployed overseas.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OfgJBywAAAAJ&hl=en">We are</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OsXHylAAAAAJ&hl=en">political</a> <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/people/adam-eichen">scientists who</a> <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/research/umass-poll">field and analyze public opinion</a> surveys to better understand Americans’ attitudes. Using evidence from our recent <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/January2024NationalPollAllToplines.pdf">national poll</a>, we can examine how sexism influenced Republicans’ preferences in the 2024 Republican primary. </p>
<p>We first asked Republican respondents whom they would favor in the Republican presidential primary. Next, we measured sexist attitudes by asking respondents a series of questions about their prejudice, resentment and animus toward women. These attitudes are collectively known as “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/abs/optimizing-the-measurement-of-sexism-in-political-surveys/58A96CD10C45B2BFE66B585CAEB200F2">hostile sexism</a>.” We also collected information about Republicans’ demographic characteristics, political attitudes and beliefs about the economy.</p>
<p><iframe id="VMydQ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VMydQ/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Familiar foe of sexism in the electorate</h2>
<p>We find that individuals who supported Trump display much higher levels of sexism than those who favored Haley. Only 27% of Haley supporters agreed with the statement that “women seek to gain power by getting control over men,” but 38% of Trump voters agreed.</p>
<p>Likewise, when asked whether “women are too easily offended,” 52% of Trump supporters agreed, while 42% of those supporting Haley did so.</p>
<p>Finally, when provided with the prompt that “women exaggerate problems they have at work,” 37% of Trump voters agreed while only 25% of Haley voters expressed this view.</p>
<p>Next, we undertook an analysis that examined how sexist attitudes related to support for Trump relative to Haley, while taking into account demographic characteristics, political identities and views on the national economy.</p>
<p>This analysis confirmed that, even after taking into account these factors, individuals with more sexist attitudes were more likely to favor Trump over Haley.</p>
<p>In her challenge to Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, Haley, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/politics-and-gender/article/hostile-sexism-benevolent-sexism-and-american-elections/F47B3070DF5182CDE9EEBF2BE26E6FB9">like female candidates across the partisan divide</a>, contended with the familiar foe of sexism in the electorate. </p>
<p>While much is uncertain about the upcoming election, the nation will almost certainly continue to wait for its first female president.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Given her strengths and Donald Trump’s vulnerabilities, why did Nikki Haley fail to seriously challenge Trump’s dominant position in the GOP primaries? Sexism is part of the answer.Tatishe Nteta, Provost Professor of Political Science and Director of the UMass Amherst Poll, UMass AmherstAdam Eichen, PhD Student, Political Science, UMass AmherstJesse Rhodes, Associate Professor, Political Science, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225812024-02-20T13:18:50Z2024-02-20T13:18:50ZNikki Haley insists she can lose South Carolina and still get the nomination – but that would defy history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573600/original/file-20240205-27-tyvqqr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C5862%2C3920&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nikki Haley greets supporters at a campaign stop in Aiken, S.C., on Feb. 5, 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-hopeful-and-former-un-ambassador-news-photo/1981166875?adppopup=true">Allison Joyce /AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former South Carolina governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, a Republican, has lost the first four presidential primary contests, but has <a href="https://apnews.com/article/haley-campaign-fight-trump-gop-nominee-donors-b8baa05cfece94e86066cf0c47bed83c">vowed to stay in the race</a> for the foreseeable future. Haley seems to be counting on support from her home state of South Carolina to put her in a more competitive position against former President Donald J. Trump. </p>
<p>Political science gives Haley <a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/H/Home-Field-Advantage">a good reason to bank on doing well in South Carolina</a>. For one thing, a candidate has naturally higher name recognition in their home state after having built a career and reputation there. Voters have gotten to know them and their record of achievement, and the candidate knows the culture of the state and its political pressure points. </p>
<p>Shared ties in a state are also a meaningful identity that strengthens connections with voters based on trust. Being an out-of-towner, on the other hand, can make you seem out-of-touch. <a href="https://theconversation.com/dr-oz-should-be-worried-voters-punish-carpetbaggers-and-new-research-shows-why-188569">Just ask Dr. Oz</a>, whose many gaffes during his 2022 campaign for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania highlighted his deep roots in neighboring New Jersey.</p>
<p>These conditions can add up to a <a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/H/Home-Field-Advantage">big electoral advantage</a> that Haley might be counting on in South Carolina.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3k2C5LunKS","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Unfortunately for Haley, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/south-carolina/">every single poll</a> of her home state’s voters conducted over the past two months has Trump ahead of her by more than 20 points. She <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/haley-argues-win-south-carolina-claim-victory/story?id=106880487">recently argued</a> that it doesn’t matter if she doesn’t win South Carolina, as long as she closes “the gap” with Trump. </p>
<p>But if she does lose her home state, does she still have any shot at the nomination? The historical data reveal that the answer is an emphatic “no.”</p>
<h2>Data: Haley is in trouble</h2>
<p>I collected election results for both parties’ presidential primaries for each election year from 1992 to 2020. I then compared the percentage of the vote they received in their home state’s primary with the average they received in other states’ primaries held slightly before or on the same day as their home state. </p>
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<p>First, every eventual nominee in this time period performed at least as well, if not better in their home state’s primary than in other comparable primaries. Even Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who were historically unpopular candidates in 2016, followed this trend. The same is true for <a href="https://youarehere.substack.com/p/do-presidential-candidates-get-home">nearly all</a> of the major presidential primary candidates during this time.</p>
<p>The data also tell us that, in the history of the modern presidential primary, since 1972, there has not been a single eventual nominee from either party who did not win their home state.</p>
<p>In this sense, Haley winning the nomination without her home state would be literally unprecedented.</p>
<p>Of course, Haley might have other outcomes in mind. Even if she remains a consistent second-place finisher in the primaries, she could wait in the wings for the nomination if Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-investigations-civil-criminal.html">legal difficulties</a> prevent him from serving in some way. </p>
<p>But the evidence says that winning the nomination outright will be next to impossible for Haley without first winning the primary in her home state.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlie Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A presidential candidate’s ‘home state advantage’ should help them win a primary, which then bodes well for how they do in successive contests. But if they lose their home state, they’re in trouble.Charlie Hunt, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2224372024-02-01T18:09:43Z2024-02-01T18:09:43ZWhy Taylor Swift is an antihero to the GOP − but Democrats should know all too well that her endorsement won’t mean it’s all over now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572838/original/file-20240201-29-3iozq0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5973%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Travis Kelce celebrates with Taylor Swift on Jan. 28, 2024, after the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC championship game.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/travis-kelce-of-the-kansas-city-chiefs-celebrates-with-news-photo/1970250651?adppopup=true">Patrick Smith/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A pop <a href="https://people.com/travis-kelce-reveals-when-he-taylor-swift-romance-first-began-8557241">icon falling for one of the NFL’s preeminent superstars</a> may seem like a slice of Americana – a scene from a small-town high school magnified by a factor of 10 million. </p>
<p>But this is America in 2024 so, of course, nothing magical stays that way. </p>
<p>To be clear, public opinion data suggests that most Americans think Taylor Swift is <a href="https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/taylor-swift-the-nfl/">good for the NFL</a>. But with her beau Travis Kelce’s Kansas City Chiefs heading to a fourth Super Bowl in five years, and with Swift herself reportedly preparing for a journey <a href="https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/sports/nfl/taylor-swift-super-bowl-chiefs-tokyo-japan-concert-report/3435863/">across the globe</a> to cheer him on in the big game, the right-wing talk machine has gone into overdrive.</p>
<p>Fox News host <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/10/pentagon-taylor-swift-fox-00134866">Jesse Watters suggested</a> that Swift may be a Pentagon asset used to combat online misinformation. Former GOP presidential candidate <a href="https://www.nydailynews.com/2024/01/29/vivek-ramaswamy-says-super-bowl-could-be-rigged-to-boost-taylor-swift-and-biden/">Vivek Ramaswamy tweeted</a> that he thinks Swift and Kelce are being artificially propped up by the media pending an upcoming Swift endorsement of Joe Biden. OAN referred to the couple as a “<a href="https://www.mediaite.com/media/oan-host-rails-against-americas-love-for-football-in-tirade-over-travis-kelce-and-taylor-swift-psy-op/">Massive Super Bowl Psy-op</a>,” a brainwashing campaign designed to indoctrinate citizens to an elite agenda and away from religion.</p>
<p>The idea that the Swift-Kelce romance is some sort of deep-state plot is perhaps gaining some traction in far-right circles because it lines up with other right-wing conspiracy theories and the right’s broader agenda. </p>
<h2>Swift’s NFL fandom</h2>
<p>Swift has <a href="https://theconversation.com/taylor-swift-person-of-the-year-and-political-influencer-208631">endorsed Democrats</a> in the past, including Joe Biden in 2020. Kelce, while not politically outspoken, was featured in a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2023/10/02/travis-kelce-promotes-flu-covid-19-shots-pfizer/71033013007/">Pfizer ad</a> touting the COVID-19 vaccine. </p>
<p>Republicans are more likely than Democrats to believe, without evidence, that <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/conspiratorial-thinking-polarization-america-united-kingdom/672726/">a secret group of rulers is controlling the world</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/23/gop-voters-vaccines-poll-00117125">that vaccines cause autism</a>. While there isn’t public opinion data yet on the theories from Fox News and the right-wing echo chamber that the Swift-Kelce romance is an elaborate left-wing scheme, it contains elements of similar conspiracies for which partisan splits exist.</p>
<p>And opinions on Swift herself are similarly polarized. The singer is viewed favorably among virtually all groups in America, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/taylor-swift-transcends-americas-political-divides-barely-rcna125908">although Republicans</a> are the only group in which as many members dislike Swift as like her.</p>
<p>Taylor Swift has brought a unique element to NFL fandom. I haven’t seen fans of my hometown Buffalo Bills <a href="https://twitter.com/LavenderKelce/status/1749147389728784475">make signs</a> denigrating a pop star since they thought Jon Bon Jovi wanted to buy the team and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/bills-to-toronto-concerns-raised-by-documents-is-buffalo-being-played/">move it to Toronto</a> in 2014.</p>
<p>Yet, <a href="https://library.park.edu/scholarsatwork/matthewharris">as a political scientist</a>, I know it’s an open question whether any of this matters politically.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a blue blazer, white shirt and rep tie gestures with open hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fox News host Jesse Watters has speculated, without evidence, that Swift may be a Pentagon asset.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/host-jesse-watters-as-jesse-watters-primetime-debuts-on-fox-news-photo/1552264944?adppopup=true">Roy Rochlin/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Oprah, Obama and celebrity endorsements</h2>
<p>In the background of these conspiracy theories is the possibility that Taylor Swift could <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/us/politics/biden-trump-election-taylor-swift.html">endorse Joe Biden</a>. The Trump campaign is reportedly thinking about such a possibility, with allies talking behind the scenes about a <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-more-popular-taylor-swift-maga-biden-1234956829/">“holy war”</a> against Swift, brainstorming ways of painting her as a left-wing celebrity advancing an elite Democratic agenda.</p>
<p>But how much would such an endorsement matter? </p>
<p>In political science literature, a hallmark case of the power of celebrity endorsements is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jleo/ewr031">Oprah Winfrey’s 2008 backing of Barack Obama</a>. Winfrey’s endorsement occurred during a primary in which he was taking on a more well-known opponent, Hillary Clinton. </p>
<p>Winfrey’s endorsement, wrote the authors of a prominent study of the case, led participants in the study “to see Obama as more likely to win the nomination and to say that they would be more likely to vote for him.” In other words, it helped advance public perceptions of Obama’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1940161208321948">viability as a candidate</a>.</p>
<p>A Swift endorsement of Biden would be different. </p>
<p>Swifties are <a href="https://theconversation.com/taylor-swift-person-of-the-year-and-political-influencer-208631">largely suburban and young</a>. Almost <a href="https://pro.morningconsult.com/instant-intel/taylor-swift-fandom-demographic">half are millennials</a>, and over 10% belong to Gen Z. They represent a slice of the youth vote that candidates have attempted to court for decades, and the <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017f-bcf4-d17b-a1ff-bef5e8a70000">suburbs are increasingly a battleground</a> in the country’s urban-rural divide. A Swift Instagram post in 2023 helped lead to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/09/22/1201183160/taylor-swift-instagram-voter-registration">35,000 new voter registrations</a> – and her ability to generate funds could also be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/us/politics/biden-trump-election-taylor-swift.html">invaluable to Biden</a>. </p>
<p>But an Oprah-like effect is less likely for a Swift endorsement of Biden, who is running as an incumbent without a serious primary challenger and his status as the Democratic nominee is certain.</p>
<p>Further, polling demonstrates that the effect of a Swift endorsement could be essentially <a href="https://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/18-of-voters-more-likely-to-back-taylor-swift-endorsed-presidential-candidate-poll-shows-2024-election-voting-ballot-biden-trump-white-house-politics-travis-kelce-kansas-city-chiefs">a net wash</a>, with 18% of the public saying they’d be more likely to support a Swift-backed candidate and 17% saying they would be less likely to support Swift’s favored choice. </p>
<p>Even those numbers might be affected by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-013-9238-0">partisan-motivated reasoning</a>, where a person’s party identification colors their perceptions of information. Swift’s prior backing of Democrats and perceived liberalism might cause her supporters and detractors to use polling questions asking about a potential Swift endorsement to express support or disfavor of her, regardless of how her endorsement would actually influence their choice. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a blue blazer, blue tie and white shirt in front of an American flag, holding his right hand in a fist." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Swift endorsement, if it comes, could be less important than Donald Trump’s response to that endorsement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-and-former-u-s-president-news-photo/1965960388?adppopup=true">David Becker/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not just a love story</h2>
<p>Essentially, a Swift endorsement might matter at the margins, but there are many, many other factors at play in a general election. That’s especially true in an election between two men who have both served as commander in chief, a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/11/16/few-former-presidents-have-run-for-their-old-jobs-or-anything-else-after-leaving-office/">rarity in American politics</a>.</p>
<p>A Swift endorsement, then, is perhaps less important in and of itself than Donald Trump’s response to a Swift endorsement of Biden. </p>
<p>Public opinion polling in the wake of Trump’s Access Hollywood remarks in 2016 showed that majorities of both women and men believed Trump had little or no <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/11/04/trump-respect-for-women/">respect for women</a>. But Trump actually improved his numbers among <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/">women voters in 2020</a>. </p>
<p>A Swift endorsement of Biden could bring out some of Trump’s worst impulses. Perhaps the effect of his response on how voters view him could be more important than her endorsement of Biden.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222437/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Harris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The idea that the Swift-Kelce romance is some sort of deep-state plot is perhaps gaining traction in far-right circles because it lines up with the political right’s broader agenda and beliefs.Matt Harris, Associate Professor of Political Science, Park UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2197782024-01-18T13:28:38Z2024-01-18T13:28:38ZWomen presidential candidates like Nikki Haley are more likely to change their positions to reach voters − but this doesn’t necessarily pay off<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568066/original/file-20240105-19-uz1nkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley greets supporters on Jan. 3, 2024, at a bar in Londonderry, N.H. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/londonderry-nh-former-south-carolina-governor-and-news-photo/1902583157?adppopup=true">Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has said that she is “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/nikki-haley-abortion-republican-primary-1827870a52349f3ee2f0c2b50e110b3b">very pro-life,</a>” she has also said that abortion is a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">“personal choice</a>.” Her wording on different thorny political issues such as abortion has left <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">some voters confused</a> about where she actually stands.</p>
<p>This has led some political observers, such as Politico journalist Michael Kruse, to say that Haley has “made a career of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/09/29/nikki-haley-profile-trump-gop-00118794">taking both sides</a>,” citing her positions on issues such as identity politics, Donald Trump and abortion.</p>
<p>In the weeks leading up to the Iowa caucuses, an Iowa voter praised Haley for pursing a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">“political middle,”</a> noting this allowed the former South Carolina governor to “compromise” and work “both sides.” Conversely, some conservative commentators have also suggested that Haley’s approach is <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/republicans-brace-nikki-haley-ron-desantis-showdown-debates-rcna117786">“inauthentic</a>.” </p>
<p>Haley placed third in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">drawing support from 19% of voters</a> there. </p>
<p>Polls on Jan. 16, 2024, showed Trump’s lead over Haley in the New Hampshire primary, set for <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/">Jan. 23, narrowing</a>. </p>
<p>We are <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/Shawn-J-Parry-Giles-2037362650">communication and English</a> scholars <a href="https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/english/about-us/faculty/bios/david-kaufer.html">who study</a> the role of language and persuasion in politics. We are particularly interested in the ways that speakers and writers adapt their messages and language in different situations and among various voters. We call this concept rhetorical adaptivity. </p>
<p>Our research shows that women presidential candidates, more than the men they run against, often speak differently to different audiences in pursuit of moderation and common ground. They also tend to shift their strategies and messages in response to criticism. And they often pay a price for it.</p>
<h2>Rhetoric and presidential campaigns</h2>
<p>Politicians changing their words and messages to appeal to different audiences is the subject of a book we co-authored in 2023, <a href="https://msupress.org/9781611864663/hillary-clintons-career-in-speeches/#:%7E:text=Hillary%20Clinton's%20Career%20in%20Speeches%20combines%20statistical%20text%2Dmining%20methods,political%20women%20in%20U.S.%20history">“Hillary Clinton’s Career in Speeches</a>: The Promises and Perils of Women’s Rhetorical Adaptivity.”</p>
<p>This project examined how Clinton, her presidential opponents in 2008 and 2016, and the <a href="https://cawp.rutgers.edu/election-watch/presidential-watch-2020">Democratic women</a> who ran for president in 2020 campaigned differently. We found that women more commonly adjusted their language and reshaped their positions to appeal to more voters and to manage the controversies they faced.</p>
<p>In 2016, for example, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/hillary-clinton-abortion/494723/">Hillary Clinton tried to find more of a middle ground</a> on abortion by referring to the “fetus” as an “unborn person” and talking about restrictions on “late-term abortions” – even as she defended a “pro-choice” position. </p>
<p>Both Clinton and Haley opponents have questioned their authenticity, citing the politicians’ shifting language and positions. Such challenges aimed to undermine their candidacies by suggesting they lacked the character to be president.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hillary Clinton wears a red pantsuit and gestures while standing at a podium, in front of a large crowd of people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hilary Clinton, the Democratic nominee for president in 2016, speaks to a crowd in North Carolina shortly before Election Day on Nov. 8.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-nominee-former-secretary-of-state-news-photo/621754706?adppopup=true">Zach Roberts/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Haley’s rhetorical maneuvers</h2>
<p>Haley’s critics also cite her shifting positions, including on issues such as abortion, Palestinians in Gaza and Donald Trump to argue she lacks a political core. </p>
<p>Former Vice President Mike Pence, for example, was quick to condemn Haley’s “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/23/us/abortion-pence-haley-debate.html">compromising stance</a>” on abortion during the August 2023 Republican debate. </p>
<p>Haley’s opponents have also challenged her changing positions on the Israel-Hamas war. As the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Haley supported Israel and disparaged the U.N.’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/us/politics/nikki-haley-israel-trump.html">Palestinian refugee agency</a> for “using American money to feed Palestinian hatred of the Jewish state.”</p>
<p>Yet, in the early days of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/us/politics/desantis-haley-gaza-refugees-israel.html#:%7E:text=%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20said.-,Ms.,a%20longstanding%20relationship%20with%20Hamas.">Haley showed more sympathy for the Palestinians</a>. </p>
<p>Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ridiculed Haley’s compassion as being “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/16/desantis-haley-gaza-israel-hamas-war-00121869">politically correct</a>.” Haley reaffirmed her pro-Israel priorities in response during a <a href="https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2023/10/20/nikki-haley-says-she-would-support-israel-strengthen-u-s-military-as-president/">speech in Cedar Rapids, Iowa</a>, in mid-October 2023. Haley said she supported Israel and called for the elimination of Hamas. Concern for the Palestinians slipped down the ladder of her priorities.</p>
<p>As a U.N. ambassador, meanwhile, Haley was unwavering in her support for Trump. In her 2019 book, “<a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250266552/withallduerespect">With All Due Respect</a>,” Haley concluded: “In every instance I dealt with Trump, he was truthful, he listened and he was great to work with.”</p>
<p>Since then, Haley has carved a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikki-haley-embraces-trump-in-her-vision-of-gop-future-11633424400">middle ground</a> approach to Trump. She has argued, “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/timeline-nikki-haleys-trump-statements-rcna70456">We need him in the Republican Party</a>. I don’t want us to go back to the days before Trump.” </p>
<p>Yet, in other contexts, she <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jewish-republicans-trump-desantis-2024-45ee4b88592754dfd6ed5332612373b6">disparages Trump</a> for <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikki-haley-embraces-trump-in-her-vision-of-gop-future-11633424400">sowing “chaos, vendettas and drama</a>.” </p>
<p><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-nikki-haley-opens-trump-israel/story?id=105523630">Trump called her out</a> on this discrepancy in the fall of 2023. “She criticizes me one minute, and 15 minutes later, she un-criticizes me.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nikki Haley wears a white jacket and stands in front of a group of seated people, with the backdrop of the American flag. She holds a microphone and points her finger towards the crowd." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign town hall event in Rye, N.H., on Jan. 2, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-un-ambassador-and-2024-republican-presidential-news-photo/1895740236?adppopup=true">Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Haley’s character woes</h2>
<p>Other critics frame Haley’s positions as “flip-flopping.” They don’t interpret what she is doing as moderating her positions or using the language of compromise to build consensus. </p>
<p>Time magazine ran a headline in February 2023 that read: “A Brief History of <a href="https://time.com/6252040/nikki-haley-donald-trump-relationship-history/">Nikki Haley’s Biggest Flip Flops on Trump</a>.” In March 2023, The New York Times featured an opinion piece titled, “The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/opinion/nikki-haley-president.html">Serene Hypocrisy of Nikki Haley</a>.” </p>
<p>Challenging the authenticity of presidential candidates is commonplace, but it is especially piercing when the challenge is directed against women candidates. In presidential politics, research shows that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/glennllopis/2014/02/03/the-most-undervalued-leadership-traits-of-women/?sh=3b7e486338a1">women are conditioned</a> to be uniters, consensus-builders and mitigators of any negativity they face. </p>
<p>Yet, efforts to do this and still “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/12/31/desantis-christie-haley-slavery-comments-acostanr-brownstein-vpx.cnn">be all things to all people</a>” often result in women candidates falling into gaffe traps. </p>
<p>Haley’s <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/30/1222272908/week-in-politics-haleys-gaffe-trump-on-primary-ballots-biden-and-southern-border">initial refusal to associate “slavery” with the Civil War</a> in December 2023 reinforced a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/28/us/politics/nikki-haley-civil-war-slavery.html">southern trope</a> that some Republicans of color called a “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/28/republicans-of-color-nikki-haley-civil-war-00133286">tactical blunder</a>.”</p>
<h2>Women’s election challenges</h2>
<p>More leadership experts are recognizing the benefits of political candidates integrating multiple perspectives into their thinking and speech. The <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/09/20/2-views-on-leadership-traits-and-competencies-and-how-they-intersect-with-gender/">Pew Research Center</a> found in 2018 that in politics as well as business, women are perceived to be more “compassionate” and “empathic” and are more likely to work out “compromises” than men. </p>
<p>Yet, in presidential campaigns, and especially primaries, compromise, adaptivity and problem-solving are exchanged for hubris, rigidity and ideological purity. Playing to the political middle is treated as politically evasive and opportunistic. </p>
<p>Eventually, women playing to the middle become more gaffe-prone as the campaign unfolds. Women, more than the men they run against, are granted minimal room by opponents and pundits for unforced errors before they are quickly dismissed as “<a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2112616119">unelectable</a>.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219778/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nikki Haley is the latest American female politician to shift her language, depending on whom she is talking to and where. But this tactic has a flip side, prompting criticism of her as inconsistent.Shawn J. Parry-Giles, Professor of Communication, University of MarylandDavid Kaufer, Professor Emeritus of English, Carnegie Mellon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201702024-01-03T17:41:24Z2024-01-03T17:41:24ZHow Israel failed to learn from the Northern Ireland peace process<p>There is no peace in the Middle East because there is no effective peace process. This isn’t because the Palestinians and Israelis do not know how to make peace. They do. The Good Friday agreement which brought peace to Northern Ireland a quarter of a century ago, provided a <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/002903.pdf">clear guide</a>. They have to do what the negotiating teams, of which I was a part, did in Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>The problem is Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his ally, the United States of America, who have failed to apply the lessons of Northern Ireland to Middle East peacemaking.</p>
<p>To fully understand the tragedy this represents, it’s necessary to go back in time to the negotiations that achieved the Good Friday agreement in 1997. At the time I was working, together with two other Northern Ireland-based academics, <a href="https://www.qub.ac.uk/schools/NBE/Research/research-centres-and-institutes/CentreofCanadianStudiesCCS/AffiliatedStaff/">Fred Boal</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-hadden-1397964">Tom Hadden</a>, developing a range of public polls to gauge opinion about how to achieve peace. </p>
<p>As the principal investigator on the Peace Building and Public Policy in Northern Ireland project – independent of government and funded by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust (JRCT) – my role was to develop relations with all the parties to the Northern Ireland peace process and act as an informal negotiator and manager of public opinion and public diplomacy. The public was kept informed through reports and articles in the local newspaper, the <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/cgi-bin/generic?instanceID=10">Belfast Telegraph</a>. It was key to the process that people of all shades of political opinion were not only involved, but were fully informed at all times.</p>
<p>Critically, all the parties to the conflict in Northern Ireland were democratically elected to participate in the peace negotiations there, including the Irish Republican Army represented by Sinn Féin, and the Ulster Volunteer Force and Ulster Freedom Fighters represented by their political leaderships, the Progressive Unionist Party and Ulster Democratic Party respectively. </p>
<p>In all, I had to work with eight political parties negotiating and agreeing questions for public opinion polls designed to resolve issues in the formal negotiations that had yet to be settled.</p>
<h2>How ‘peace polls’ work</h2>
<p>These <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/008880.pdf">“peace polls”</a> were unlike “partisan polls” designed to underline the public’s support for a particular policy favoured by one party or another (most commonly a government). Instead, the polls – which I developed with a partner from each of the eight political parties elected to the formal negotiations – aimed to fairly and objectively measure the public’s support, from both sides, for every possible policy option across the political spectrum. The objective was to determine the precise points of common ground, where they existed, or effective compromise where it was needed for peacemaking. </p>
<p>Public opinion polls are an American invention and, fortunately for me, Bill Clinton’s special envoy to Northern Ireland and the “talks” chairman, Senator George Mitchell, took the polls very seriously and gave me every possible support. </p>
<p>When the British offered to run the polling project for the parties, the parties rebelled and insisted on working with me with JCRT funding. So I always made a point of hand delivering the reports to Mitchell and the parties the day before they were published. And each time the polling reports were published, deals got done until we reached an agreement that we knew could <a href="https://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/fref98.htm">pass a referendum</a>, which was eventually held on May 22 1998.</p>
<p>The legitimacy of the Good Friday agreement was ensured by the full democratic participation of all the parties to the agreement and the people of Northern Ireland. Through public opinion polls the people gained a seat at the negotiating table, and through a referendum the deal was made.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Colin Irwin explains peace polls and how they might have affected the Brexit referendum.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Tragically, the peoples of Israel and Palestine have been prevented from learning and applying these same peace lessons to the resolution of their conflict.</p>
<h2>When it all went wrong</h2>
<p>In January 2009, the newly elected US president, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jan/22/hillary-clinton-obama-israel-palestine">Barack Obama, appointed Mitchell</a> as his special envoy for Middle East peace, in the hope he could bring the success of the Good Friday agreement peace process to Israel and Palestine. Expecting Obama to appoint Mitchell to this post following his successful election in 2008, I was invited to run a <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/000571.pdf">peace poll in Israel and Palestine</a>.</p>
<p>I was flown to Washington in June 2009 along with my Israeli and Palestinian polling team. Presentations were arranged for us in the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6q2hyaKjs0">US House of Representatives and Senate</a>, and various thinktanks to brief all the politicians and experts with an interest in Middle East peace.</p>
<p>I had been in touch with Mitchell and met him in his office at the State Department. At that time I had also been running peace polls in <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/cgi-bin/generic?instanceID=18">Sri Lanka</a> with support from the Norwegians. They were a generous and reliable funder and had indicated they would be willing to support my work in Israel and Palestine if Mitchell wanted them to. </p>
<p>Mitchell welcomed the Norwegian offer, arrangements were made to take it up, but it all fell through – my gut feel was that the State Department wanted to have control of the research to meet their own agenda. So I did not get the funding and Mitchell eventually resigned his post without achieving peace in May 2011.</p>
<p>Of course, it can be argued that even if I had brought the lessons of the Northern Ireland peace process to Israel and Palestine I would have failed. But I had made all necessary preparations and contacts with all the parties to the conflict to make it work. I knew what I was doing – as did Mitchell when he accepted his appointment from Obama.</p>
<p>Over a period of two months of interviews to develop the questionnaire in November and December 2008 I had private meetings with all the relevant stakeholders including the then Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, and president, Shimon Peres, on the Israeli side. My pollster Mina Zemach was a good friend of Peres and had been his pollster when he led the Labour party.</p>
<p>On the Palestinian side, the non-governmental organisation organising the project, <a href="https://www.onevoicemovement.org/">OneVoice</a>, had close connections with Fatah, the political party founded by Yassir Arafat and others in the 1950s, which was at that stage dominant within the Palestinian Authority. So I arranged to meet with Hamas via an introduction from <a href="https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/ghassan_khatib/">Ghassan Khatib</a>, an independent Palestinian politician and director of the <a href="http://www.jmcc.org/index.aspx">Jerusalem Media and Communications Centre</a>. </p>
<p>Speaking with Hamas was like speaking with Sinn Féin. They had an extreme negotiating position but that is all it was: a negotiating position. Like Sinn Féin they had a legitimate grievance and said they would be happy to cooperate with the peace polls. Of course the impact of the Hamas attack of October 7 and Israel’s assault on Gaza has profoundly reshaped public opinion on all sides.</p>
<p>Violence on both sides of the Troubles that continued <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/04/02/how-murder-of-two-best-friends-spurred-final-push-for-peace-in-north/">even as the talks were progressing</a> meant that at times many thought we would never achieve a peace agreement in Northern Ireland. But such tragedies can either doom negotiations or inspire renewed effort. People have a choice. We carried on. </p>
<p>Significantly, the one key interlocutor who refused to meet with me in December 2008 was Netanyahu. He only consented to send his chief of staff. Zemach said this was because he would refuse to compromise on sharing Jerusalem as part of any peace agreement. And when he became Israel’s prime minister in March 2009 he also refused to include Hamas in any peace negotiations.</p>
<p>My experience told me that excluding Sinn Féin and the other paramilitary organisations from peace negotiations in Northern Ireland had only brought failure, while their inclusion had enabled the peace settlement. </p>
<p>Other parties essential to the success of the Northern Ireland peace process had been the centre <a href="https://www.allianceparty.org/peace_process_papers?locale=en">Alliance Party</a> and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/1/northern-ireland-peace-deal-womens-role-finally-recognised-says-activist">Women’s Coalition</a>. </p>
<p>The politically equivalent party in Israel was Meretz, a left-wing socialist party and strong supporter of the <a href="https://peacenow.org.il/en">Peace Now</a> movement. When I met with them, like Alliance, they told me they would be pleased to be part of a fully inclusive peace process but they were excluded from negotiations as they were not part of Netanyahu’s coalition government.</p>
<p>The establishment in Washington did not have a problem with my contacts with Hamas. In 2009, I had also been working on a <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/cgi-bin/generic?instanceID=22">project in Sudan</a> with the US Institute of Peace. Although Hamas was a proscribed terrorist organisation, the Institute for Peace lawyers said it was OK for me to meet and talk with them providing I did not give them any assistance. They advised me “not to even buy them a coffee”. I took this advice. Hamas provided the coffee.</p>
<p>But without inclusive negotiations that also drew on the public’s desire for an end to the bloodshed, peace was not achieved. </p>
<p>In 2013, when I was in New York for meetings at the UN I took the opportunity to visit Mitchell at his law office and asked him why he had resigned. He said it was because he was not getting sufficient support from the State Department. I had planned to reveal this in a <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/008880.pdf">book I was writing</a>. But a trusted colleague and friend advised me against it, as it could reflect badly on the former secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, when she was campaigning to be president in the run-up to the 2016 election.</p>
<p>Accordingly, I watered down the quote to saying something about the lack of sufficient support in Washington. It was not untrue, but it was not the whole truth.</p>
<h2>Misplaced optimism</h2>
<p>In my optimism at the time, I thought perhaps that Clinton – if she became president – would send her husband to the Middle East as her special envoy. Bill Clinton had got very close to making an agreement some years earlier with the “<a href="https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Peace%20Puzzle/10_Clinton%20Parameters.pdf">Clinton parameters</a>”, but he ran out of time. And then Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election to Donald Trump – and so we are where we are.</p>
<p>It is just as likely that my optimism was misplaced and that Clinton and possibly Joe Biden – who has always been a very strong supporter of Israel – did not want to oppose Netanyahu for domestic political reasons.</p>
<p>When the Good Friday agreement was struck 25 years ago, both Mitchell and I thought Israel and Palestine would be our next challenge. But Al Gore, who we had hoped might set his sights on a peace deal, lost to Bush and then 9/11 happened, and the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq took all the political oxygen out of peacemaking. </p>
<p>Then, 15 years ago, we thought it would happen when Obama was elected. It should have. Another opportunity may well arrive when the present war is over, the Hamas’ attack on October 7 and Israel’s response have raised the stakes for peace considerably. Elections in the US, Israel and Palestine may also put the peace process on hold yet again. But this must not prevent people of goodwill from talking peace. And it can work, history tells us as much.</p>
<p>Sadly, Israel and Palestine are not alone in their cycles of violence and grief. All over the world the lessons of the Northern Ireland peace process are ignored. Frozen conflicts remain frozen at best and with increased frequency become unstable and violent. Over centuries, the cost of war has often been measured in “blood and treasure”. It’s fair to say that since 2009 in the Middle East and elsewhere we’ve seen “blood” in thousands of lives lost and “treasure” in billions of dollars wasted, again and again.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article originally stated that the author’s work had been funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. This was incorrect. Colin Irwin received funding from the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, which is a separate entity. The error was introduced in the editing process and has now been corrected.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin John Irwin receives funding from: Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, Center for Democracy and Reconciliation in South East Europe, Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada, OneVoice, Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (now FCDO), Economic and Social Research Council (UK ESRC), United Nations, InterPeace, Health and Welfare Canada, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), British Academy, Norwegian Peoples Aid, The Day After, No Peace Without Justice, US Department of State, Local Administrations Council Unit (Syria), Asia Foundation, Department for International Development (UK DFID), OpenAI, Atlantic Philanthropies, Universities: Dalhousie, Manitoba, Syracuse, Pennsylvania, Queens Belfast, Liverpool. Also member of the World Association of Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) which promotes freedom to publish public opinion polls and sets international professional standards.</span></em></p>The main stumbling block to Middle East peace is the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.Colin John Irwin, Research Fellow, Department of Politics, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193862024-01-03T13:43:45Z2024-01-03T13:43:45ZHow religion and politics will mix in 2024 – three trends to track<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565883/original/file-20231214-19-v45zg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C2995%2C1953&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Attendees at evangelist Franklin Graham's 'Decision America' tour in Turlock, Calif., in 2018. The tour was to encourage Christians to vote.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/attendees-hold-hands-and-pray-as-rev-franklin-graham-speaks-news-photo/963640408?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Religion is likely to play a big role in voters’ choices in the 2024 presidential election – much as it did in previous years. Despite an overall shift away from participation in <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/05/14/democrats-religion-census-secular-00095858">organized religion in the U.S. populace</a>, religious rhetoric in the political arena has intensified. </p>
<p>In the 2016 race, evangelical voters contributed, in part, to Republican nominee Donald Trump’s victory. Those Americans who identified as “weekly churchgoers” not only showed up at the polls in large numbers, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/11/09/how-the-faithful-voted-a-preliminary-2016-analysis/">but more than 55% of them supported Trump</a>. His capture of <a href="https://www.prri.org/spotlight/religion-vote-2016/">66% of the white evangelical vote</a> also tipped the scales in his favor against his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton.</p>
<p>Evangelical support for Trump continued to be strong in the 2020 presidential election. However, Joe Biden <a href="https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/324410/religious-group-voting-2020-election.aspx">drew fellow Catholics to his camp</a> and convinced some evangelicals, as well, to vote in his favor. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/09/faith-leaders-back-biden-evangelicals-trump">Biden received public endorsement</a> from 1,600 Catholic, mainline Protestant and evangelical faith leaders. </p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://www.umt.edu/history/people/?ID=1174">historian and a religious studies scholar</a> who recently published <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Religion-and-Social-Protest-Movements/Shearer/p/book/9781138090262">a book exploring the role of religion in political movements</a> such as anti-abortion campaigns. Historical evidence can help identify trends that will likely influence the mix of religion and politics in the year ahead. </p>
<p>From my perspective, three key trends are likely to show up in 2024. In particular, the run-up to the elections seems poised to feature intensified end-times rhetoric, more claims of divine support and relative silence from the evangelical community on the rise in Christian nationalism. </p>
<h2>1. End-times rhetoric</h2>
<p>End-times rhetoric has long played a prominent role in American politics. In 2016, as presidential candidate <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/16/magazine/hillary-clinton-campaign-final-weeks.html">Clinton told</a> The New York Times, “As I’ve told people, I’m the the last thing standing between you and the apocalypse.” Three years before, <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2016/11/8/13494798/apocalypse-election-history-trump-clinton-cruz-johnson-goldwater">Texas Sen. Ted Cruz had warned</a>, “We have a couple of years to turn the country around or we go off the cliff to oblivion.” </p>
<p>Indeed, American leaders have rallied adherents through <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/2017/12/29/political-scientist-studies-apocalyptic-political-rhetoric/">apocalyptic rhetoric</a> since the inception of the country. Ever since Puritan John Winthrop first called America a “<a href="https://www.gilderlehrman.org/sites/default/files/inline-pdfs/Winthrop%27s%20City%20upon%20a%20Hill.pdf">city on the hill</a>” – meaning a shining example for the world to follow – the threat of losing that divinely appointed status has consistently been employed by presidential candidates. </p>
<p>John F. Kennedy employed that exact image of the “city on the hill” in a <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/node/11516">1961 speech on the cusp of his inauguration</a>, claiming that – with “God’s help” – valor, integrity, dedication and wisdom would define his administration. </p>
<p>Part of Ronald Reagan’s rise to fame included “<a href="https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/reagans/ronald-reagan/time-choosing-speech-october-27-1964">A Time for Choosing</a>,” a speech in which he nominated Republican presidential candidate <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2016/11/8/13494798/apocalypse-election-history-trump-clinton-cruz-johnson-goldwater">Barry Goldwater and warned</a>, “We will preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on earth, or we will sentence them to take the first step into a thousand years of darkness.” In <a href="https://www.reaganfoundation.org/media/128652/farewell.pdf">his farewell address 25 years later</a>, Reagan also revived the city on the hill image while lauding U.S. freedoms. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="President Trump, in a navy blue suit, prays with his supporters standing on either side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565887/original/file-20231214-25-l4aaco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565887/original/file-20231214-25-l4aaco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565887/original/file-20231214-25-l4aaco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565887/original/file-20231214-25-l4aaco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565887/original/file-20231214-25-l4aaco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565887/original/file-20231214-25-l4aaco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565887/original/file-20231214-25-l4aaco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Faith leaders pray over U.S. President Donald Trump during a ‘Evangelicals for Trump’ campaign event held at the King Jesus International Ministry on Jan. 3, 2020, in Miami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/faith-leaders-pray-over-us-president-donald-trump-during-a-news-photo/1191478084?adppopup=true">Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a late 2022 announcement of his presidential election bid, Trump asserted “<a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/former-president-trump-announces-2024-presidential-bid-transcript">the blood-soaked streets of our once great cities are cesspools of violent crimes</a>,” drawing on apocalyptic imagery, in reference to drug-smuggling and illegal immigration. By March 2023, at the annual gathering of the Conservative Political Action Conference, he predicted that “<a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/trump-speaks-at-cpac-2023-transcript">if they [Democrats] win, we no longer have a country</a>.”</p>
<p>Biden has likewise drawn on the image of final battles. In a speech at Philadelphia’s Independence Hall on Sept. 1, 2022, he said that he and his supporters are in “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/09/01/remarks-by-president-bidenon-the-continued-battle-for-the-soul-of-the-nation/">a battle for the soul of this nation</a>.” </p>
<h2>2. Divine mandate</h2>
<p>Since the establishment of the republic, many U.S. political leaders have claimed a divine mandate. God, they asserted, guided the founding of the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20474628">country’s democratic institutions</a>, ranging from popular elections to the Constitution’s balance of powers. </p>
<p>George Washington, for example, claimed in a June 1788 letter to his secretary of war, Benjamin Lincoln, that “<a href="https://founders.archives.gov/GEWN-04-06-02-0326">the finger of Providence has so manifestly pointed</a>” to the founding of the United States. The previous year, Benjamin Franklin gave a speech to the Constitutional Convention <a href="https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/benfranklin.htm">in which he noted</a>: “God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without his notice, is it probable that an Empire can rise without his aid?” </p>
<p>By 1954, in the middle of the Cold War, President Dwight Eisenhower signed a bill <a href="http://nationalhumanitiescenter.org/tserve/nineteen/nkeyinfo/mandestiny.htm">adding “under God” to the Pledge of Allegiance</a>, a reassertion of Washington’s earlier claim.</p>
<p>Scholars have long documented how those in power <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197652534.003.0006">employ claims of divine authority</a> to legitimize their role in a host of different countries. Recently, some U.S. politicians and public commentators have shifted to claiming divine authority for anti-democratic actions. </p>
<p>Doug Mastriano, a Pennsylvania state senator at the time, prayed right before the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection that those seeking <a href="https://news.berkeley.edu/2022/09/20/crisis-of-faith-christian-nationalism-and-the-threat-to-u-s-democracy">to “seize the power” would do so “providentially</a>.” </p>
<p>The claim by conservative radio celebrity Eric Metaxas that the insurrection was “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/11/christian-religion-insurrection-capitol-trump/">God’s battle even more than our battle</a>” defined the event as divinely inspired. This kind of assertion by such influential voices intensifies the commitments of those seeking to undermine democratic electoral processes.</p>
<p>Regardless of the outcome of the 2024 election, the switch from historical claims of divine authority for democracy to divine authority to challenge democracy is already obvious and apparent.</p>
<h2>3. White supremacy and Christian nationalism</h2>
<p>In the U.S., religious and racial identities have been <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/02/16/race-in-the-religious-lives-of-black-americans/">intertwined from the country’s inception</a>. Although also expressed in more subtle and systemic forms, during the late 20th and early 21st centuries, <a href="https://voices.uchicago.edu/religionculture/2017/06/26/the-klan-white-christianity-and-the-past-and-present-a-response-to-kelly-j-baker-by-randall-j-stephens/">white supremacists</a> made the most explicit claims of divine favor on the part of white people in general and people of Nordic descent in particular. </p>
<p>They promoted <a href="https://theconversation.com/nazi-germany-had-admirers-among-american-religious-leaders-and-white-supremacy-fueled-their-support-213635">Nazi ideology</a> and <a href="https://www.overdrive.com/media/3586908/the-religion-of-white-supremacy-in-the-united-states">developed new organizations that repackaged similar philosophies</a> while drawing on religious claims. </p>
<p>The overtly white supremacist and virulently antisemitic <a href="https://www.middlebury.edu/institute/academics/centers-initiatives/ctec/ctec-publications/christian-identitys-new-role-extreme-right">Christian Identity movement</a>, a North American new religious movement that gained popularity in the 1980s among organized white supremacist groups, claimed that people of color, who they deemed “<a href="https://www.middlebury.edu/institute/academics/centers-initiatives/ctec/ctec-publications/christian-identitys-new-role-extreme-right">mud races</a>,” were created by God as inferior. They also asserted that the religious covenant – between God and people – spelled out in the Bible <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Christian-Identity">applied only to people of European descent</a>. </p>
<p>Likewise, the unapologetically white supremacist “<a href="https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/events/christianity-and-the-alt-right-exploring-the-relationship">alt-right movement</a>” that coalesced in 2010 around the philosophies of biological racism and the belief in the superiority of white peoples around the world have likewise mixed overt white supremacy with religious doctrines. </p>
<p>This close connection between religious claims and white supremacy among overtly racist organizations has shown up in mainline political arenas as well. In this case, the trend is one of omission. Evangelical leaders have consistently failed to condemn or disassociate themselves from leaders with overt white supremacy connections.</p>
<p>When given an opportunity to condemn white supremacists during the first 2020 presidential debate, Trump instead addressed the Proud Boys, a violent white supremacist group, by saying, “<a href="https://www.debates.org/voter-education/debate-transcripts/september-29-2020-debate-transcript/">Stand back and stand ready</a>.” His decision to hire staff like <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/janetwburns/2017/10/06/breitbart-emails-trace-neo-nazi-moves-of-steve-bannon-milo-yiannopoulos-report/?sh=4633a6fb925c">white nationalist Steve Bannon</a> during his first presidential campaign and to dine with white supremacist Nick Fuentes <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/25/us/politics/trump-nick-fuentes-dinner.html">in November 2022</a> continued that pattern. </p>
<p>Appeals to white supremacy have also surfaced in the current Congress. In spring of 2023, 26 members of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-denounce-white-supremacy-letter-raskin-1786300">refused to sign a letter denouncing white supremacy</a>. </p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether these trends will continue in their current forms, transition to new ones or be displaced by rhetorical strategies as yet unimagined. What is most certain is that religion and politics will continue to interact.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219386/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tobin Miller Shearer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The 2024 elections may see a more intense end-times rhetoric, claims of divine support and a failure to condemn the rise in Christian nationalism, writes a religion scholar.Tobin Miller Shearer, Professor and Chair, History Department: Director of the African-American Studies Program, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2119812023-09-15T12:32:33Z2023-09-15T12:32:33ZThe president loves ice cream, and a senator has a new girlfriend – these personal details may seem trivial, but can help reduce political polarization<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548370/original/file-20230914-21-jykpd2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=582%2C68%2C3532%2C2636&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden eats an ice cream cone at a Baskin-Robbins in Portland, Ore., in October 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Biden/c0b94faf3c4243ca812030a8476234a2/photo?Query=Biden%20ice%20cream&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=123&currentItemNo=14">Carolyn Kaster/AP </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Politicians want to be heard – to land a soundbite on the nightly news, to advertise their legislative accomplishments and to have people know their platform. But when given opportunities to talk to voters, they often share details about their personal lives instead.</p>
<p>Presidential candidate Tim Scott used a September 2023 appearance on Fox News to talk about <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-calls-critics-scared-tim-scott-introduce-girlfriend/story?id=103070885">his dating life</a>, saying that voters would soon meet his girlfriend. On Twitter, Senator Ted Cruz often posts <a href="https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1701279302937882844">football clips</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1698107085353861125">selfies at sporting events</a>. </p>
<p>And in July 2023, President Joe Biden, who has <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/12/20/joe-biden-loves-ice-cream-sg-orig.cnn">described himself as an “ice cream guy,”</a> tweeted a picture of himself holding an ice cream cone captioned, “<a href="https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1680615812762091521">In my book, every day is National Ice Cream Day.</a>” </p>
<p>This trend of politicians sharing personal information isn’t new. </p>
<p>One study of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/abs/twitter-style-an-analysis-of-how-house-candidates-used-twitter-in-their-2012-campaigns/2975E5DB5DC41AE4F4977264DDDFE649">campaign tweets</a> found that congressional candidates in 2012 were more likely to tweet about their personal lives than their policy platforms.</p>
<p>Why do politicians share so much from their personal lives on the campaign trail? </p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DgNh6bUAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of political science,</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/how-political-content-in-us-weekly-can-reduce-polarized-affect-toward-elected-officials/5548A22DCB7E068C9EB74AF17F57BC73">my research</a> shows that when people see elected officials as people and not just politicians, it boosts their popularity. It also reduces party polarization in people’s views of politicians.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Ted Cruz holds up a green jersey with his name on it while standing at a podium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Senator Ted Cruz receives a Philadelphia Eagles jersey at a political rally in Philadelphia in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senator-ted-cruz-receives-a-philadelphia-eagles-jersey-news-photo/922467386?adppopup=true">Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘House of Cards’ to hot sauce</h2>
<p>My research was inspired by the weekly column, “<a href="https://www.usmagazine.com/tag/25-things-you-dont-know-about-me/">25 Things You Didn’t Know About Me</a>” published in the celebrity entertainment magazine Us Weekly. While actors, musicians and reality television personalities regularly share facts about themselves or their personal lives in this column, several politicians have been featured over the years. </p>
<p>In 2016, <a href="https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/ted-cruz-25-things-you-dont-know-about-me-w167243/">then-presidential candidate Cruz</a> shared with the magazine that his first video game was Pong and that he has watched every episode of the Netflix drama series “House of Cards.” When she was running for president in 2016, former Secretary of State <a href="https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/hillary-clinton-25-things-you-dont-know-about-me-w203125/">Hillary Clinton shared</a> that she loves mystery novels and puts hot sauce on everything. </p>
<p>I was interested in whether these kinds of autobiographical and apolitical details changed how people evaluate elected officials.</p>
<p>As part of my research, I noted five items from the list Cruz provided to Us Weekly in 2016, along with five similar autobiographical details collected from the news that same year about Senator Bernie Sanders. </p>
<p>Details about Cruz included that his favorite movie is “The Princess Bride” and that he was once suspended in high school for skipping class to play foosball. Sanders, meanwhile, has shared in news interviews that he is a fan of the television show “Modern Family” and that he proposed to his wife in the <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/266468-sanders-proposed-to-wife-in-friendlys-parking-lot/">parking lot of a Friendly’s restaurant.</a></p>
<p>I then shared these details with a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Americans in a survey conducted just before the 2020 election. Half were asked to just rate the senator, while the other half were given one of these lists of autobiographical details before rating their favorability toward the senator. </p>
<p>I found that those who read autobiographical details gave warmer evaluations of the politicians than those who did not learn these facts. </p>
<p>Even though both Cruz and Sanders are well known and arguably polarizing politicians, members of the public nonetheless shifted their opinions of the senators when they found out a little more about them as people.</p>
<p>I also found that these autobiographical details led to candidate ratings that were less polarized along party lines. </p>
<p>People’s party loyalties typically determine their views of elected officials. People offer positive ratings of politicians who share their partisan loyalties and very negative ratings of those from the opposing party. </p>
<p>But in my research, I found that minor details like Cruz’s penchant for canned soup were especially likely to boost his ratings among Democrats. And Sanders’ love of the <a href="https://theweek.com/speedreads/589630/bernie-sanders-really-into-disco-music-abba-celine-dion">musical group ABBA</a> was especially likely to improve his favorability ratings among Republicans. </p>
<p>We know that people tend to evaluate new information <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3694247">through the lens of their partisan biases</a>. People generally accept new information that reinforces their views, and are skeptical of information that is inconsistent with their prior beliefs. </p>
<p>But when politicians share autobiographical details, people see them as humans – and not just through the lens of their usual partisan biases. When politicians talk about their personal lives, it not only appeals to their supporters, but dampens the negativity people feel toward politicians from the opposing party.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bernie Sanders walks through a crowd of people smiling, standing in front of his wife." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Senator Bernie Sanders has shared personal details about his relationship with his wife, Jane O'Meara Sanders, pictured together in 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-candidate-sen-bernie-sanders-shakes-news-photo/1211594134?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>What this means for politics</h2>
<p>Even in a time where partisanship drives elections, there is still value in being likable.</p>
<p>For elected officials who want to boost their support among supporters of rival partisans, shifting the focus to personality rather than partisan politics can be a useful strategy. </p>
<p>I think that this approach could also help depolarize politics. </p>
<p>If political campaigns focused more on the candidates rather than replaying familiar partisan divides, views of elected officials would be less polarized along party lines. </p>
<p>It can be tempting to dismiss the political content in late night talk shows or celebrity entertainment magazines as mere fluff and a distraction from serious policy debates. But we also know that <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/F/bo11644533.html">policy issues rarely matter</a> for the votes people cast. Instead, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-073034">party loyalties determine much of people’s decision-making</a>. In a time of deeply partisan politics, it is useful to find ways to interrupt partisan biases and decrease polarization.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211981/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Wolak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When politicians talk more about their personal lives and less about politics, it makes people from the opposing side of the political line see them as people and like them more.Jennifer Wolak, Professor of political science, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2119872023-08-30T18:15:05Z2023-08-30T18:15:05ZWhy the United States will have to accept China’s growing influence and strength<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-the-united-states-will-have-to-accept-chinas-growing-influence-and-strength" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>After wrapping up a recent four-day trip to China, United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a media briefing: “<a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1603">We believe that the world is big enough for both of our countries to thrive</a>.” </p>
<p>While optimistic, Yellen’s statement is far from persuasive. It doesn’t represent the tense geopolitical landscape saturated with sanctions, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/white-house-detail-plans-restricting-some-us-investments-china-source-2023-08-09/">investment restrictions</a> and containment efforts.</p>
<p>Yellen’s was one of many visits by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/18/world/asia/blinken-china-xi-diplomacy.html">U.S. officials</a> to China in recent months. These overtures come on the heels of concentrated American efforts against what the U.S. perceives to be China’s increasing expansion and assertiveness in Asia. President Joe Biden’s administration has made its intentions clear about maintaining the status quo in Asia, and Beijing is responding cautiously.</p>
<p>How did relations between the U.S. and China become so antagonistic over the last decade?</p>
<h2>Conflicting policies</h2>
<p>In a news conference with Chinese President Jiang Zemin in 2002, then-President George W. Bush said: “<a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/02/20020221-7.html">China’s future is for the Chinese people to decide</a>.” But the current state of relations indicates the path the Chinese chose for themselves is not sitting well with the U.S.</p>
<p>In 2009, Secretary of State <a href="https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2009a/01/115450.htm">Hillary Clinton suggested the Barack Obama administration wanted to go further than Bush had in developing the China-U.S. relationship</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“We need a comprehensive dialogue with China. The strategic dialogue that was begun in the Bush administration turned into an economic dialogue.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Obama-era approach then culminated in a comprehensive pivot to <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/17/remarks-president-obama-australian-parliament">the Asia-Pacific region in 2011</a> that resulted in American economic, security and diplomatic resources shifting towards the area.</p>
<p>During Donald Trump’s administration, U.S. policy priorities on China shifted back to economic relations as the trade <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-trade/trump-calls-china-trade-deficit-horrible-ahead-of-asia-visit-idINKBN1D15AM">deficit between the two nations</a> became a central point of contention. The Trump approach was no longer dialogue, but rather direct confrontation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-china-u-s-conflict-is-about-much-more-than-trade-96406">The China-U.S. conflict is about much more than trade</a>
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<p>Under Biden, China <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/12/fact-sheet-the-biden-harris-administrations-national-security-strategy/">is deemed a “competitor</a>.” </p>
<p>Policy choices have included reducing economic dependence on Chinese supply chains, the creation of the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/15/joint-leaders-statement-on-aukus/">Australia, United Kingdom and United States partnership known as AUKUS</a> and <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3350297/new-edca-sites-named-in-the-philippines/">gaining U.S. access to four additional military bases in the Philippines</a>. </p>
<h2>Chinese pragmatism</h2>
<p>While America’s China policy has transformed into confrontation, China’s overall foreign policy trajectory has largely been pragmatic and linear. </p>
<p>Since the 1990s, China has been explicit in its grand objective of a <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/234074?ln=en">multi-polar world</a> in which global politics is shaped by several dominant states.</p>
<p>When Xi Jinping ascended to the presidency in 2013, this aspiration became increasingly overt and assertive. A year earlier, Vice-President Xi announced China’s “two centennial goals” — one calling for China to be “<a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1277160.shtml">prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful</a>” with influence over the global world order by 2049.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in dark suits with red ties shake hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hu Jintao, left, poses with his successor Xi Jinping after Xi was elected at a plenary session of the National People’s Congress in Beijing in March 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To analyze Chinese-American relations, the metaphor of the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/">Thucydides’ trap</a> — in which a rising power challenges an existing one — may not be the most appropriate analogy. And phrases like “the rise of China” don’t do justice to China’s history. </p>
<p>China has been a great power, regionally at least, for thousands of years and was a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13010">manufacturing behemoth even in the 1750s</a>.</p>
<p>Geopolitically, the U.S. continues to retain a military and diplomatic edge over China. It has demonstrated its will and capability to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-event-chinese-invasion-2022-09-18/">determine the rules of engagement in China’s own backyard</a>. </p>
<p>But even though China trails the U.S. in many areas, it doesn’t need American support as much as it used to. Astonishingly rapid development in the last two decades is probably still far from China’s most creative and innovative phase.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nato-should-tread-carefully-in-southeast-asia-where-memories-of-colonialism-linger-205261">NATO should tread carefully in Southeast Asia, where memories of colonialism linger</a>
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<h2>American limitations</h2>
<p>There are also limits to the American field of influence in the region.</p>
<p>The U.S. has failed to move beyond strengthening existing alliances and fortifying its military installations. Its geo-strategic options are also limited. If, for example, the Americans shored up Japan’s offensive capabilities or deepened their partnership with India to challenge China, they would be inadvertently creating a multi-polar world.</p>
<p>China <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/world/asia/china-us-xi-jinping.html">is not deterred</a> by American policy. It is <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/12/europe-china-policy-brussels-macron-xi-jinping-von-der-leyen-sanchez/">countering it through the art of persuasion and dialogue</a>. But it too has exhibited its limits. </p>
<p>With <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/11/solomon-islands-signs-controversial-policing-pact-with-china">a few exceptions</a>, China has failed to convince even its neighbours of the sincerity of its intentions. A majority of Asian nations are either U.S. allies <a href="https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2023/04/09/pm-asean-should-remain-neutral-amid--us-china-rivalry">or neutral</a>.</p>
<p>The ongoing tit-for-tat between the two nuclear and highly interdependent powers will continue to shape their relations, which is concerning for global peace and stability.</p>
<p>Will the U.S. peacefully share global influence with China? Will China abide by its <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/zyjh_665391/201407/t20140701_678184.html">Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence</a> and its <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/zggcddwjw100ggs/jszgddzg/202208/t20220826_10754228.html">claim that it will never seek world domination</a>? It’s hard to say.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1516979705932808192"}"></div></p>
<h2>Four indicators of what lies ahead</h2>
<p>Several indicators, however, point to a somewhat balanced co-existence between the two as dominant power centres in the coming decades. </p>
<p>First, the U.S. has been unsuccessful in inhibiting China’s growth and expansion, and will likely be incapable of preventing the second-biggest economy from achieving its centennial goals.</p>
<p>Second, China is already present around the globe in terms of human capital, investment, manufactured products — and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/06/29/across-19-countries-more-people-see-the-u-s-than-china-favorably-but-more-see-chinas-influence-growing/">world public opinion about China is changing</a>.</p>
<p>Third, to use the Taoist metaphor, <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/taoism/">China is a hub that has many spokes</a> and has the capacity and will to invent many more. The hub is united and efficient; an economic downturn will only slow the social organism, not cause it to collapse.</p>
<p>When <a href="https://time.com/3901419/space-station-no-chinese/">China was barred from the International Space Station after the passage of a law by U.S. Congress</a> in 2011, for example, it constructed <a href="https://www.space.com/tiangong-space-station">Tiangong, a permanent space station</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An Asian woman and two Asian men in blue jumpsuits smile and wave standing in front of a large red and gold chinese flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China’s astronauts wave as they arrive to meet the media at the Jiuquan satellite launch center near Jiuquan in western China in June 2013 before later boarding a spacecraft to dock with China’s Tiangong 1 space lab.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andy Wong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fourth, the rise of non-liberal democratic regimes and weaknesses in democracies are creating a situation where some nations are gravitating towards China while others are moving away from the U.S.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-fuelled-chaos-shows-democracy-is-in-trouble-heres-how-to-change-course-152728">Trump-fuelled chaos shows democracy is in trouble — here's how to change course</a>
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<hr>
<p>That said, political reason is too often at the mercy of short-term calculations. </p>
<p>The U.S. has shown no interest in sharing world leadership, nor has China shown any interest in deviating from its global aspirations. But even though they may appear to be on a collision course, it seems likely China is going to be successful in its pursuit, and both nations will ultimately learn to co-exist and thrive. </p>
<p>Until then, one can only hope that they spare the world the chaos and ugliness of power politics and use their creative energies for the betterment of the human condition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yasar Bukan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Relations between the U.S. and China have become antagonistic over the last decade. Here’s why the relationship must change.Yasar Bukan, Lecturer in Global Politics & Political Philosophy, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2079702023-07-14T12:47:28Z2023-07-14T12:47:28ZWhy Trump’s prosecution for keeping secret documents is lawful, constitutional, precedented, nonpartisan and merited<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537108/original/file-20230712-19-nac50i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C4861%2C3233&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Special counsel Jack Smith speaks to reporters on June 9, 2023, in Washington about the investigation of Trump's retention of classified records.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TrumpClassifiedDocuments/b427a9a0bd424a6dbac9b8ea0ce105a7/photo?Query=Jack%20Smith&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1957&currentItemNo=2">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump and his allies have responded with a variety of objections <a href="https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/06/trump-indictment.pdf">to his federal indictment</a>, brought in June 2023 by <a href="https://www.justice.gov/sco-smith/speech/special-counsel-jack-smith-delivers-statement">special counsel Jack Smith</a>. The federal charges – the first against a former president – listed 37 counts of obstruction of justice and wrongful retention of classified documents after Trump left office in January 2021. </p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-classified-documents-indictment-miami-court-e9412bb71b63ab1b7cfb8e8b122e9809">Trump pleaded not guilty</a>.</p>
<p>The objections made by Trump and his allies: The former president simply cannot be charged, the indictment is political “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/25/trump-rails-against-federal-charges-and-accuses-biden-of-weaponizing-justice-department">weaponization</a>” of the justice system, the charges are <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65868294">groundless</a> and the <a href="https://www.local10.com/news/politics/2023/06/12/rep-carlos-gimenez-says-trump-is-being-targeted-unfairly-in-federal-case/">charges are unfair</a>. The unfairness claim often involves <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/14/politics/fact-check-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-classified-documents/index.html">a comparison to Hillary Clinton</a>, Trump’s 2016 presidential opponent, who was not charged in an investigation into her handling of government documents.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2687223">scholar of secrecy law</a> and a <a href="https://moritzlaw.osu.edu/dakota-s-rudesill">longtime national security practitioner</a>, based on all that is known, I do not see merit in those claims. </p>
<h2>A former president can be charged</h2>
<p>Trump and his allies have argued that it is completely inappropriate for the former president to be charged.</p>
<p>But no part of the Constitution, no statute and no Supreme Court precedent sets a former chief executive above the law. Alexander Hamilton, writing in <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed69.asp">The Federalist Papers</a>, stated the founders’ view that a former president is “liable to prosecution and punishment in the ordinary course of law.” Hamilton added that a former president would be no different in this respect from a state governor. </p>
<p>American history is replete with criminal charges against <a href="https://www.illinoispolicy.org/4-of-illinois-past-10-governors-went-to-prison/">state officials</a>, vice presidents – a <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-great-trial-that-tested-the-constitutions-treason-clause">former one</a> during the founding era, and a <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/vice-president-agnew-resigns">sitting one</a> in the 1970s – <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/congressman-george-santos-charged-fraud-money-laundering-theft-public-funds-and-false">members of Congress</a> and <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdoh/pr/former-ohio-house-speaker-sentenced-20-years-prison-leading-racketeering-conspiracy">other prominent politicians</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537116/original/file-20230712-23-wtdmyh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Cardboard boxes piled up in a bathroom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537116/original/file-20230712-23-wtdmyh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537116/original/file-20230712-23-wtdmyh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537116/original/file-20230712-23-wtdmyh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537116/original/file-20230712-23-wtdmyh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537116/original/file-20230712-23-wtdmyh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537116/original/file-20230712-23-wtdmyh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537116/original/file-20230712-23-wtdmyh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Trump federal indictment includes this photo of boxes of records stored in a bathroom and shower at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXTrumpClassifiedDocuments/2d076c18d4c6444987df88fcf14ea542/photo?Query=Trump%20mar%20a%20lago%20documents%20bathroom&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1&currentItemNo=0">Justice Department via AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not a partisan prosecution</h2>
<p>Trump is right that his is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/07/11/1186926582/trump-asks-the-judge-to-delay-the-start-of-his-classified-documents-trial">inevitably a sensitive case</a> because of his continued presence in the political arena. </p>
<p>What he does not acknowledge is that maintaining the bedrock legal principle of equal justice requires avoiding twin hazards: politically motivated prosecutions and exempting elite politicians from the law. </p>
<p>Navigating these shoals is challenging because under the U.S. Constitution, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-executive-branch/">the executive branch</a> is headed by the sitting president, and it includes the Justice Department. That means there will always be at least a potential risk of “weaponization” of prosecution – or just the risk of that allegation – when the defendant is in a different party from the president.</p>
<p>But if a former president who is a political adversary of the current president cannot be charged, then that former president can commit any federal crime they please. That is the opposite of the founders’ intent, and not the law.</p>
<p>Sorting this out requires careful analysis of the facts and law. </p>
<p>Here, the “weaponization” allegation <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/09/us/weaponization-committee-house-republicans.html">lacks substance</a>. All it has are the circumstances of President Joe Biden’s position atop the executive branch, and Trump’s challenge to Biden’s candidacy. In contrast to President Thomas Jefferson’s <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-great-trial-that-tested-the-constitutions-treason-clause">detailed direction of the prosecution</a> of political adversary and former Vice President Aaron Burr, there is no credible evidence that Biden is telling the prosecutor what to do.</p>
<h2>The charges have merit</h2>
<p>Trump claims that he had an “<a href="https://news.yahoo.com/trump-crowns-presidents-absolute-docs-044612947.html">absolute right</a>” to take the documents. In reality, when Trump left office <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/13/1117297065/trump-documents-history-national-archives-law-watergate">he lost the presidency’s authority</a> to possess presidential records and national security documents. The indictment presents strong evidence that the documents Trump held on to contained <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/86887/national-security-implications-of-trumps-indictment-a-damage-assessment/">extremely sensitive secrets</a>, including U.S. war plans, and that Trump knew it and worked to block recovery of all of them by the government.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.archives.gov/presidential-libraries/laws/1978-act.html">By law</a>, documents of former presidents and national defense information must be stored by the National Archives or other federal agencies. Instead, the indictment alleges that the former president stored classified information at the busy Mar-a-Lago resort in a room accessible from the pool, an office, ballroom stage, bathroom and shower. </p>
<p><a href="https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/06/trump-indictment.pdf">The indictment</a> lays out clear evidence of Trump’s knowing refusal over many months to comply fully with lawful requests, and a subsequent court-issued subpoena, for the return of all the documents. It includes pictures, and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/new-trump-audio-recording-classified-documents-case-3f3963a35a5d8ccae407ea4ab9f93082">a recorded statement</a> in which Trump checks all the boxes for criminal liability: <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793">knowing possession</a> after leaving office of documents he calls “secret” and showing of those documents to people not authorized to see them – plus admitting that he could have declassified them while president but did not. </p>
<h2>Not comparable to Biden, Pence or Clinton</h2>
<p>That recording and other contents of the indictment will be powerful evidence at trial of Trump’s state of mind. </p>
<p>The law concerning <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1519">government documents</a> and <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793">national defense information</a> requires willfulness for criminal liability – basically, keeping documents you know you should not. Other statutes criminalize <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1001">lying to investigators</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1512">other obstruction of justice</a> and <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2">getting others to commit crimes</a>. </p>
<p>It is Trump’s alleged knowingness and obstruction that make complaints of unfairness fall flat. </p>
<p>President Biden and former Vice President Mike Pence <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/15/trump-documents-case-biden-clinton-pence.html">both instructed aides to return documents</a> with classification markings after such records were discovered in files that had been quickly packed and went home with the former vice presidents at the end of their terms as veep. </p>
<p>A federal investigation of Pence <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/justice-department-wont-bring-charges-over-classified-documents-found-at-pences-home">was dropped in June 2023</a>. One of Biden likely will be, too. Both former vice presidents wrongfully retained national defense information, but not knowingly. Neither was obstructive. </p>
<p>In Trump’s 2016 campaign, he <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/06/23/trump-falsely-compares-hillary-clintons-emails-his-document-hoard/">criticized former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton</a> for her use of private email systems, including to send emails with classified information. The FBI concluded that she had been <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/28/careless-but-not-criminal-what-the-fbi-has-said-about-hillary-clintons-emails/">extremely careless rather than knowing or obstructing</a>. </p>
<h2>Echoes of Reality Winner and Edward Snowden</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537124/original/file-20230712-19-bkba5u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A blond-haired woman in an orange shirt with 'INMATE' printed on it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537124/original/file-20230712-19-bkba5u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537124/original/file-20230712-19-bkba5u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537124/original/file-20230712-19-bkba5u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537124/original/file-20230712-19-bkba5u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537124/original/file-20230712-19-bkba5u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537124/original/file-20230712-19-bkba5u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537124/original/file-20230712-19-bkba5u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Reality Winner, who leaked a classified report to a reporter, was sentenced to five years in prison for violating one of the same Espionage Act provisions under which Trump has been charged.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RussiaHackingAccusedLeaker/8e5d698c1f864098a517f29adfc73365/photo?Query=%22Reality%20Winner%22&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=9&currentItemNo=0">Lincoln County, Georgia Sheriff's Office via AP</a></span>
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<p>The evidence of Trump’s knowing retention of secret documents and obstruction makes his case quite like many in which people have faced fines or prison. Those include cases in which people once had lawful access to secrets but knowingly stole and shared them to make political points. </p>
<p>A junior Air Force linguist, Reality Winner, unlawfully removed one top-secret document and sent it to the media because she thought the public should know about it. Winner was <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/federal-government-contractor-georgia-charged-removing-and-mailing-classified-materials-news">prosecuted during Trump’s presidency</a> and sentenced to five years in prison. The law in question? One of the same <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793">Espionage Act</a> provisions under which Trump has been charged with over 30 counts. </p>
<p>Edward Snowden, the National Security Agency contractor who in 2013 leaked tens of thousands of classified documents to inform the public about secret U.S. surveillance activities, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-charges-snowden-with-espionage/2013/06/21/507497d8-dab1-11e2-a016-92547bf094cc_story.html">was also charged</a> under another very similar section of the same statute before fleeing to Russia. </p>
<p>Trump’s case also looks a lot like those of other senior officials who have been prosecuted for knowingly mishandling secret documents, plus lying and other obstruction. </p>
<p>The indictment alleges that Trump, after leaving office, showed classified information to a biographer. That recalls <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/04/us/petraeus-plea-deal-over-giving-classified-data-to-lover.html">then-CIA Director David Petraeus’ giving his biographer</a> – who was also his lover – top-secret papers. </p>
<p>Both Trump and Petraeus were charged under the same <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793">Espionage Act</a> sections and the same law criminalizing <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1001">lying to investigators</a>. After being fired as CIA director, <a href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20170307_R41404_81a5dd34df4194e25f492f9ac3a7ee0ab5a41eb3.html">Petraeus pleaded guilty</a> to a lesser charge, paid a fine and got two years’ probation. </p>
<p>Trump’s situation strikes me as worse than Petraeus’. Trump’s documents are more numerous. Prosecutors allege that Trump’s were viewed by more people and were stored less securely. Trump’s obstruction also appears far greater. </p>
<p>A final category of cases also suggests Trump is in big trouble: the prosecutions of hoarders. There are multiple instances of U.S. intelligence personnel having been indicted, like Trump, for keeping troves of secret documents at home. Their mental health defenses failed. During Trump’s presidency, sentences in these cases included <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-nsa-employee-sentenced-prison-willful-retention-classified-national-defense#:%7E:text=Nghia%20Hoang%20Pho%2C%2068%2C%20of,of%20classified%20national%20defense%20information.">five years</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/19/743345689/ex-nsa-contractor-who-stole-top-secret-documents-sentenced-to-9-years-in-prison">nine years in prison</a>. </p>
<p>Despite all of that, Trump and his allies will likely argue that indictment of a former president violates an important tradition against such prosecutions.</p>
<p>The real tradition is that former presidents tend not to break the law. The considerable evidence of the former president’s hoarding of secret documents and obstruction have forced the justice system either to exempt an elite politician from the law – or proceed with the well-merited prosecution that is now underway.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207970/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The author has worked inside the U.S. intelligence community and extensively handled classified information. Almost 30 years ago, he ran for the state legislature as a Democrat, and from 1995 to 2003 worked for a Democratic U.S. Senator. Over the years he has volunteered for, contributed money to, and voted for Democratic, Republican, and Independent candidates for public office. His scholarship and teaching are non-partisan and focus on civic values, law, and professionalism. </span></em></p>A former national security staffer, now a scholar of secrecy law, says criticisms of Trump’s federal indictment for hoarding classified documents are unfounded.Dakota Rudesill, Associate Professor of Law; Senior Faculty Fellow, Mershon Center for International Security Studies, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1989742023-03-01T13:26:03Z2023-03-01T13:26:03ZHow Frances Willard shaped feminism by leading the 19th-century temperance movement<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512495/original/file-20230227-16-yiwjos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C21%2C2807%2C2120&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Frances Willard stands behind her mother, at left, and Anna B. Gordon, who worked as a secretary and lived in the Willard household.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/frances-willard-standing-her-mother-and-anna-b-gordon-secy-news-photo/640476983?phrase=frances%20willard&adppopup=true">Library of Congress/Corbis/VCG via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As younger adults opt for “wellness” products, many are practicing alcohol abstinence. Sometimes referred to as “<a href="https://blog.faire.com/industry-insights/staying-power-of-sober-curious-trend/">sober curious</a>,” this trend of often forgoing alcohol has forged public conversations on the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2022/12/27/dry-january-health-benefits/">health benefits of abstinence</a>. </p>
<p>Few, however, reflect on its connections to the <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Drinking-In-America/Mark-Edward-Lender/9780029185704">temperance movement</a>, one of the major social movements of the 19th and early 20th centuries. </p>
<p>Its leaders not only believed that alcohol abstinence would lead to better health, but they saw it as a way to create a just society. This movement laid a foundation for the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/prohibition-a-very-short-introduction-9780190280109?cc=us&lang=en&">successful campaign for an amendment</a> to the U.S. Constitution. Enacted in 1920, the 18th Amendment barred the sale and distribution of alcoholic beverages. </p>
<p>Because of the difficulties of legal enforcement, and following a national campaign waged against Prohibition, the amendment was <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Last-Call/Daniel-Okrent/9780743277044">repealed in 1933</a>. That repeal still casts aspersion on how the temperance movement is remembered today. Many Americans see it as a moralistic crusade dominated by religious zealots. However, temperance <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/smashing-the-liquor-machine-9780190841577?cc=us&lang=en&">became an international movement</a>, with many of its leaders being women. </p>
<p>A historical figure who sheds light on this movement is Frances Willard. In a <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/do-everything-9780190914073?cc=us&lang=en&">recent biography</a>, I discuss how Willard came to lead the temperance movement.</p>
<h2>Global reach of temperance movement</h2>
<p>Born in 1839, Willard wanted to become a Methodist minister. Instead, she became a teacher, as women could rarely be ordained at the time. Ultimately, she became the <a href="https://www.northwestern.edu/150-years-of-women/learn/library-exhibit/fireworks-and-fire.html">first dean of the newly founded Woman’s College at Northwestern University</a>. </p>
<p>In 1874, Willard helped found the <a href="https://scalar.usc.edu/works/willard-and-wells/the-wctu-temperance-and-prohibition">Woman’s Christian Temperance Union</a>, an organization committed to campaigning for prohibition legislation. She was elected its president in 1879, holding that office until her death in 1898. Throughout her presidency, the WCTU ran shelters, medical dispensaries and free kindergartens that reached out to destitute families. </p>
<p>Willard focused on alcohol’s <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/American_Temperance_Movements.html?id=YCC6QgAACAAJ">impact on women and children</a>. At a time when women had few legal safeguards compared with men, Willard highlighted how what today is known as <a href="https://www.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/brochures-and-fact-sheets/understanding-alcohol-use-disorder">alcohol use disorder</a> drained economic resources, while liquor manufacturers made huge profits at the expense of the poor. She argued that money spent on alcohol not only took away resources from families, it led to inebriated men committing domestic violence against women and children. </p>
<p>Emphasizing what the WCTU called “<a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9780807871966/womans-worldwomans-empire/">organized mother love</a>” – the belief that women could apply the ideals of motherhood to the social issues of the time – Willard built the WCTU into one of the largest women’s organizations in the world. By the late 19th century, <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Woman_and_Temperance.html?id=90DiAAAAMAAJ">it had over 150,000 members</a>. </p>
<p>The temperance movement was not confined to the U.S. In 1884, <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691145211/reforming-the-world">Willard inaugurated the World’s WCTU</a>. This organization formed WCTU chapters in over 40 countries including Sweden, Japan and Australia. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512504/original/file-20230227-811-o510fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two women lay a wreath at the statue of a woman holding a book in one hand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512504/original/file-20230227-811-o510fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512504/original/file-20230227-811-o510fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512504/original/file-20230227-811-o510fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512504/original/file-20230227-811-o510fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512504/original/file-20230227-811-o510fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512504/original/file-20230227-811-o510fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512504/original/file-20230227-811-o510fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">This Frances Willard statue is in the Statuary Hall of the U.S. Capitol.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/beverly-robinson-and-merry-lee-powell-of-the-illinois-state-news-photo/99871232?phrase=frances%20willard&adppopup=true">Douglas Graham/Roll Call/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>In 1905, when a statue of Willard was <a href="https://www.aoc.gov/explore-capitol-campus/art/frances-e-willard-statue">unveiled in the National Statuary Hall</a> – a chamber devoted to sculptures of prominent Americans in the U.S. Capitol – she became the first woman to receive that distinction. She was <a href="https://www.womenofthehall.org/inductee/frances-e-willard/">inducted into the National Women’s Hall of Fame</a> in Seneca Falls, New York, in 2000. </p>
<h2>Elevating women’s voices</h2>
<p>For Willard, prohibition was one of her many interests. Through her slogan, “<a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/document/the-do-everything-policy/">Do Everything</a>,” she challenged women to become politically active, encouraging them to embrace any issues they saw as important. </p>
<p>Under her leadership, the WCTU advocated for women’s suffrage, lobbied for prison reform and <a href="https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780875804163/articulating-rights/#bookTabs=1">campaigned for age-of-consent laws</a> that were designed to raise the legal marriage age for women from 10 to 18. </p>
<p>Believing that the best way to ensure prohibition legislation was through giving women the right to vote, Willard mentored WCTU women who <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674431331&content=bios">became suffrage leaders</a>. These reformers included Anna Howard Shaw and Carrie Chapman Catt, who helped lead the campaign to ratify the 19th Amendment, granting women the right to vote. </p>
<p>Willard supported <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780809079636/equality">third-party political movements</a> that endorsed prohibition, universal suffrage and economic reforms. Always at the center of her message was the belief that overhauling the American political system required women’s voices. “I am glad to live in a day when we are talking about justice,” <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=c032073">she wrote in 1892</a>. “What we women want is simply justice.” </p>
<p>Willard was a harsh critic of anyone who stood in the way of women’s achievement. Opposing male physicians of the time, who believed that exercise would damage a woman’s health, she learned how to ride a bicycle. Willard described her <a href="https://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5038/">mastery of bicycle riding in a popular book</a> published in 1895. </p>
<h2>An activist faith</h2>
<p>Willard’s <a href="https://www.gbhem.org/publishing/publications/nevertheless-american-methodists-and-womens-rights/">Methodist faith</a> shaped her reform commitments. She was influenced by the <a href="https://people.smu.edu/mappingthega/stories/s15/">18th-century founder of Methodism, John Wesley</a>, who emphasized doing good works in service to the poor. His example influenced later religious-based reform movements, including temperance. </p>
<p>Willard built on this Methodist foundation, believing that reforming society required that one’s faith be put into practice. Motivated by Jesus’ commitment to serve the poor, she pushed WCTU women to work for economic justice and social equality. </p>
<p>Willard supported the fledgling labor movement. She called for women to receive the same pay as men in the workplace, and backed federal legislation to regulate business monopolies. </p>
<p>She also pushed for the <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Woman_in_the_Pulpit.html?id=hGtJAAAAIAAJ">ordination of women</a>, believing that increasing women’s voices in churches would facilitate the building of a just society. </p>
<p>Willard’s model of progressive religion is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/clinton-faith-private/index.html">evident today in former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton</a>. Like Willard, the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee often discusses how her Methodist faith inspires her political vision. </p>
<h2>Complicated legacy</h2>
<p>Willard was far from perfect. Her legacy is haunted by an absence of a systemic understanding of racism. </p>
<p>In the 1890s, she became embroiled in a controversy with the <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780809016464/totellthetruthfreely">African American journalist Ida B. Wells</a>. Wells criticized Willard for not taking a stand against the lynching of African Americans in the South. She noted how Willard’s desire to placate white Southerners blinded her to the atrocities of Jim Crow racism.</p>
<p>Willard’s <a href="https://scalar.usc.edu/works/willard-and-wells/christopher-evans">reluctance to address Wells’ accusations</a> was typical of white reformers of the time. It reflects the historical failure of many white Americans to prioritize issues of racial justice.</p>
<p>Despite her shortcomings, Willard’s leadership not only played a critical role in the temperance movement. She <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Two_Paths_to_Women_s_Equality.html?id=yMO-QgAACAAJ">helped shape 21st-century feminism</a> and progressive-based movements <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-social-gospel-movement-explains-the-roots-of-todays-religious-left-78895">associated with today’s religious left</a>. </p>
<p>At the height of her fame, many believed that if women won the right to vote Frances Willard would be the first woman elected president. Oftentimes, she expressed hope that <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=c021398">she would live to see a woman elected</a> to that office. This dream of Willard’s remains unfulfilled. </p>
<p>Ever the optimist, however, <a href="https://curiosity.lib.harvard.edu/women-working-1800-1930/catalog/45-990010688700203941">Willard wrote in 1889</a>, “I have sincerely meant in life, to stand by the great cause of poor, oppressed humanity. There must be explorers along all pathways. … This has been my ‘call’ from the beginning.” </p>
<p>Willard died before the passing of the 18th and 19th Amendments. Yet she played a vital role in molding movements that led to their enactment. Her contributions are a reminder to celebrate the work of many visionary women, like Willard, who did not live to see their dreams become reality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198974/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher H. Evans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A historian highlights the role of Frances Willard, who helped found the Woman’s Christian Temperance Union, one of the major social movements of the 19th and 20th centuries.Christopher H. Evans, Professor of the History of Christianity, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2000222023-02-20T14:08:25Z2023-02-20T14:08:25ZFirst ladies from Martha Washington to Jill Biden have gotten outsized attention for their clothing instead of their views<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510612/original/file-20230216-20-smvgcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">First lady Jill Biden presents her Inauguration Day clothing at the Smithsonian National Museum of American History in January 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1246532218/photo/first-lady-jill-biden-presents-her-inauguration-day-attire-to-the-smithsonian-museum.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=3BPQj8nDTYS8WzM8ppPcI26rRc7Exm8QzNj-vQTRrWk=">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>First ladies’ <a href="https://www.marieclaire.com/fashion/g34161434/first-lady-fashion/">fashion choices tend to attract</a> a lot of attention and often, quite literally, go down in history. </p>
<p>Now, with their new home at the Smithsonian Museum’s popular gallery showcasing first ladies’ fashion, the <a href="https://www.vogue.com/article/first-lady-jill-biden-inauguration-outfits-smithsonian">inauguration outfits of Jill Biden</a> will attract attention for years to come.</p>
<p>Biden <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/jill-biden-inauguration-day-ensembles-smithsonian/index.html">wore two outfits</a> by young female designers to mark President Joe Biden’s January 2021 inauguration.</p>
<p>She unveiled the new addition to the exhibit in Washington in January 2023, marking a rare occasion when the first lady has publicly spoken about her clothing’s importance. </p>
<p>First ladies’ fashion choices over the years have often been laced with multiple meanings – representing both their husbands’ administrations and politics, and what was happening in the country at the time. The colorful flourishes on Jill Biden’s white inaugural outfit, for example, <a href="https://www.gabrielahearst.com/blogs/stories/dr-jill-biden-inaugural-evening-dress">paid homage</a> to the United States with embroidered flowers, representing all of the country’s states and territories.</p>
<p>But Jill Biden’s office, as a policy, even before she became first lady, generally <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBAoBBXv19Q">has not addressed</a> her clothing, except for particular moments – like when she wore boots that said <a href="https://www.vogue.com/article/jill-biden-vote-boots-stuart-weitzman">VOTE</a> ahead of the November 2020 elections, or when she had a <a href="https://www.vogue.com/article/jill-biden-state-of-the-union-sunflower-dress">sunflower – the national flower of Ukraine – sewn</a> on her dress to show support for the country shortly after the Russian army invaded Ukraine in 2022. </p>
<p>“It’s kind of surprising, I think, how much commentary is made about what I wear or if I put my hair in a scrunchie,” <a href="https://people.com/style/jill-biden-talks-black-tights-vogue-august-cover-story/">Jill Biden told Vogue</a> in August 2021.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_yj5X8gAAAAJ&hl=en">As a researcher of women in politics</a>, from political candidates to first ladies, I think that Presidents Day this year offers a chance to better understand the meaning of first ladies’ fashion – and the potential missteps of focusing too much on their style choices. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510616/original/file-20230216-24-vjcah7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Black middle aged man wearing a navy blue polo shirt waves and smiles on a balcony, next to a middle aged Black woman with a colorful red and blue patterned dress with thin black straps." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510616/original/file-20230216-24-vjcah7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510616/original/file-20230216-24-vjcah7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510616/original/file-20230216-24-vjcah7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510616/original/file-20230216-24-vjcah7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510616/original/file-20230216-24-vjcah7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510616/original/file-20230216-24-vjcah7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510616/original/file-20230216-24-vjcah7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama deliver remarks at the White House on July 4, 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/118186430/photo/president-obama-delivers-remarks-at-the-white-house.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=Vtwvo0bBzX-cE4JugViW7I_CMSFRzoBNOz0M7TsB5FY=">Kevin Dietsch-Pool/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A focus on fashion is not new</h2>
<p>First lady Helen Taft was the first to give her clothing to the Smithsonian Museum, helping establish the first ladies’ fashion collection in the early 1900s.</p>
<p>Taft donated the white, silk chiffon gown she wore to President William <a href="https://style.time.com/2013/01/18/belles-of-the-ball-an-insiders-look-at-inaugural-gowns/slide/helen-taft-1909-the-dress-that-started-it-all/">Howard Taft’s 1909 inauguration</a>.</p>
<p>Helen Taft’s choice set a precedent for future first ladies, who have continued to donate their inaugural clothing to the museum. Seeing first ladies’ clothing throughout history offers a window into their time in the White House and helps museum visitors better understand past fashion influences. </p>
<p>But first ladies tend to also <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-38224514">receive outsized attention</a> for their fashion choices – dating back to the early days of <a href="https://doleinstitute.org/event/evolution-of-the-modern-first-lady-how-we-got-from-lady-washington-to-dr-biden/">Martha Washington</a>, who was known as a woman of <a href="https://www.mountvernon.org/george-washington/martha-washington/martha-washingtons-style/">high fashion</a>. She insisted on <a href="https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/the-style-of-martha-washington/">purchasing English laces</a>, silks, jewelry, footwear, bonnets and dozens of kid gloves and silk stockings, specifying repeatedly that they be of the “best” and “fine” variety.</p>
<h2>Sending a message</h2>
<p>First ladies’ clothing is carefully curated and, at times, comes with <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/style/photos/2016/11/first-lady-fashion-diplomacy">subtle messages</a> of diplomacy or can be used to make other political statements. </p>
<p>For example, first lady Jackie Kennedy’s iconic, sleek 1960s era look <a href="https://www.townandcountrymag.com/style/fashion-trends/g40464001/jackie-kennedy-style-essentials/">continues to inspire women</a> around the globe – although she drew criticism for her preference of <a href="https://www.vogue.fr/fashion/fashion-shopping/diaporama/jackie-kennedy-style/14859">French designers</a> during her time in the White House. When her husband John F. Kennedy was assassinated, she refused to change out of her <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/15/fashion/jacqueline-kennedys-smart-pink-suit-preserved-in-memory-and-kept-out-of-view.html">bloodstained pink suit</a> to show what the assassin had done to her husband.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510893/original/file-20230217-26-xya5ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An old colored photo shows a man in a dark suit seated in a car with a lady in a pink suit. Behind them are people in police uniform smiling and watching." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510893/original/file-20230217-26-xya5ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510893/original/file-20230217-26-xya5ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510893/original/file-20230217-26-xya5ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510893/original/file-20230217-26-xya5ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510893/original/file-20230217-26-xya5ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510893/original/file-20230217-26-xya5ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510893/original/file-20230217-26-xya5ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President John F. Kennedy and Jacqueline Kennedy ride in a motorcade shortly before the president was assassinated in 1963.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/515287546/photo/john-and-jackie-kennedy-with-john-connally-in-automobile.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=3OafTV3DStR-cBpG-bnR1AXQFOy8WiYSwl7RXVmHTjg=">Bettmann/Contributor/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rosalyn Carter also received public blowback for <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/galleries/glamour-and-innovation-mary-matise">wearing the same inaugural gown</a> to President Jimmy Carter’s inauguration in 1977 that she first wore to a ball when he was elected governor of Georgia in 1971. Critics complained that she could have given another American designer a boost with a new dress – but the decision to wear something already in her closet spoke to the Carter administration’s <a href="https://style.time.com/2013/01/18/belles-of-the-ball-an-insiders-look-at-inaugural-gowns/slide/rosalynn-carter-1977-something-old-something-new/">ideas of modesty</a>. </p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.townandcountrymag.com/style/fashion-trends/g39676289/first-lady-fashion-evolution/">Pat Nixon routinely wore pantsuits</a> during President Richard Nixon’s term from 1969 to 1974 to show support for the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/womens-movement">growing women’s rights movement.</a></p>
<p>Melania Trump, too, found herself subject to public criticism when she wore a jacket with the words <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45853364">“I really don’t care, do u?”</a> printed on the back in 2021. Trump’s team said that the coat was “just a jacket.” But the fashion choice <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/21/us/politics/melania-trump-jacket.html">still attracted criticism,</a> especially because she wore the coat to visit migrant children detained at a shelter in Texas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510638/original/file-20230216-22-docyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The back of a woman with long brown hair is shown getting into a black car. She wears an army green jacket with white writing. A woman wearing a white shirt holds open the car door for her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510638/original/file-20230216-22-docyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510638/original/file-20230216-22-docyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510638/original/file-20230216-22-docyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510638/original/file-20230216-22-docyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510638/original/file-20230216-22-docyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510638/original/file-20230216-22-docyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510638/original/file-20230216-22-docyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former first lady Melania Trump climbs into a motorcade wearing a jacket that says ‘I really don’t care, do u?’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/980585602/photo/first-lady-melania-trump-visits-immigrant-detention-center-on-u-s-border.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=qA-xTTRrP8vo6CctAI0DFa0nPgEJFLDHZgMXfgu4gVQ=">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Making history</h2>
<p>Men in politics rarely gain media attention for their clothing choices – except for the occasional unusual fashion choice, like when then President Barack <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/28/politics/barack-obama-tan-suit-fifth-anniversary/index.html">Obama wore a taupe suit</a> to a news conference. </p>
<p>Former first lady Michelle Obama – herself known for her <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/14/fashion/michelle-obama-first-lady-fashion.html">chic and often affordable</a> fashion choices – has written about the double standard she and other women in politics faced when it came to the outsized attention their clothing received. </p>
<p>“It seemed that my clothes mattered more to people than anything I had to say,” <a href="https://www.elle.com/culture/career-politics/a24796896/michelle-obama-becoming-excerpt/">she wrote</a> in her 2018 book, “Becoming”. </p>
<p>Because of an intense interest in what first ladies wear, it does not seem surprising that <a href="https://americanhistory.si.edu/first-ladies/introduction">one of the most popular</a> exhibits at the National Museum of American History is <a href="https://americanhistory.si.edu/exhibitions/first-ladies">First Ladies</a>. The exhibit features more than two dozen gowns from the Smithsonian’s almost 100-year old First Ladies collection.</p>
<p>In the past, first ladies typically have donated glittering ball gowns that they wore to the inaugural balls. Jill Biden’s donation included two knee-length dresses with matching coats and, for the first time in history, matching face masks. They are a sobering reminder of the COVID-19 pandemic, which was still raging during the inauguration. </p>
<p>All of the first ladies’ clothing becomes an important part of American history. Each item helps people look back and understand the exact circumstances surrounding each inauguration. </p>
<p>But when public figures like Jill Biden choose not to discuss the nuances of their clothing every time there is interest, I think that they may create more focus on the work of their office, instead of what they are wearing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200022/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nichola D. Gutgold does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Presidents Day, a women in politics scholar examines the meaning, and sometimes outsized focus, on first ladies’ fashion choices.Nichola D. Gutgold, Professor of Communication Arts and Sciences, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1959992022-12-23T13:12:55Z2022-12-23T13:12:55ZJan. 6 committee tackled unprecedented attack with time-tested inquiry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502472/original/file-20221221-20-vyealk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5015%2C3331&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Dec. 19, 2022 meeting of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol, in Washington, DC. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-image-is-displayed-on-a-screen-during-a-meeting-of-the-news-photo/1245732523?phrase=House%20January%206%20committee&adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After 18 months, more than 1,200 interviews and <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/20/jan-6-committees-unanswered-questions">10 public hearings that presented 70 witnesses’ testimony</a>, the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 Attack <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/january-6-committee-final-report/2095325cbebd8378/full.pdf">released its 845-page final report</a> late on Dec. 22, 2022. The report recommended that the Department of Justice prosecute former President Donald Trump on four criminal charges, including conspiracy and incitement of insurrection. It also contained several legislative recommendations, including <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/22/1139951463/electoral-count-act-reform-passes">reform of the process</a> to count electoral votes in presidential elections. The committee also notably recommended that Congress bar Trump and other officials involved in the insurrection from running for office again under the 14th amendment.</p>
<p>The committee’s recommendation to prosecute a former president was unprecedented. But its investigation of the events of Jan. 6, 2021 fell squarely within Congress’ power, and added a new chapter to a centuries-long history of congressional investigations into government scandals and failures.</p>
<h2>Regular oversight</h2>
<p>Congress has broad investigative powers. Its standing and special committees, known as select committees, regularly conduct <a href="https://theconversation.com/jan-6-hearings-are-only-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-when-it-comes-to-important-congressional-oversight-hearings-185369">both preemptive oversight and retroactive investigations</a>. Their aim: to identify specific cases of wrongdoing both inside and outside government. </p>
<p>Committee investigative reports, released at the end of focused probes, often serve as valuable historical documents. They provide detailed chronicles of the events that motivated the inquiries. For instance, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/114/crpt/hrpt848/CRPT-114hrpt848.pdf">the final report released by the House Select Committee on Benghazi</a> offered a minute-by-minute accounting of events leading to the deadly terrorist attacks on the American consulate in Benghazi, Libya, on the night of Sept. 11, 2012. </p>
<p>The reports typically reiterate the questions that prompted the investigation, explain how the committee conducted its work and delineate the relevant evidence and progression of events. Finally, a report will provide provides recommendations for fixing the problems the inquiry uncovered. </p>
<p>These recommendations may be classified into three distinct types: legal, legislative and institutional. Of the 11 distinct recommendations the Jan. 6th committee offered in its final report, one was a legal recommendation focused on accountability, nine proposed new policies and actions, and one proposed increased oversight in Congress itself. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An antique-looking newspaper clipping about a Senate committee's attempt to get witnesses to testify in 1860." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A brief New York Times story from Jan. 26, 1860, about witnesses summoned to testify at a Senate committee investigation of John Brown and fellow abolitionists’ raid on a government arsenal at Harpers Ferry, in what is now W.Va.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1860/01/26/88149088.html?pageNumber=2">New York Times archive screenshot</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Legal referrals</h2>
<p>Committees can recommend legal action, such as civil or criminal prosecutions, or both. But Congress cannot itself levy civil or criminal charges against the subjects of investigations. </p>
<p>Instead, committees may recommend that the Department of Justice consider indictments based on the evidence presented in the final committee reports. Federal prosecutors often conduct their own parallel investigations during the same time frame as congressional inquiries but take Congress’ evidence and referrals seriously. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/12/19/us/jan-6-committee-trump">Jan. 6th committee’s vote on Dec. 19, 2022</a> was the first time Congress has referred a former president for criminal prosecution.</p>
<p>In the 1920s, during its investigation of <a href="https://www.levin-center.org/thomas-walsh-and-the-teapot-dome-investigation/">the Teapot Dome bribery scandal</a>, the Senate Public Lands Committee <a href="http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/history/johnson/teapotdome.htm">found evidence of corruption by, among others</a>, Interior Secretary Albert Fall. Committee Chairman Thomas Walsh recommended that Fall be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1924/02/10/archives/walsh-arraigns-teapot-dome-looters.html">prosecuted for “contemptuous disregard of the law.”</a> <a href="https://www.levin-center.org/thomas-walsh-and-the-teapot-dome-investigation/">Fall was also investigated by special counsels</a> appointed by President Calvin Coolidge and was indicted and served prison time for bribery. </p>
<p>In the 1970s, <a href="https://www.levin-center.org/the-watergate-hearings/">Congress’ investigation</a> into the Nixon administration’s cover-up of the Watergate break-in led to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2014/01/23/us/watergate-fast-facts/index.html">the conviction of three Nixon aides for obstruction of justice</a>. In the 1980s, the Senate’s Iran-Contra investigation, along with the independent Tower Commission’s report, into secret and unlawful arms sales to Iran by the Reagan administration <a href="https://www.brown.edu/Research/Understanding_the_Iran_Contra_Affair/prosecutions.php">led to the convictions of three Reagan administration advisers</a> for charges ranging from conspiracy to obstruction of Congress. </p>
<p>In highly political investigations, Congress may stop short of recommending specific criminal charges. But it can encourage federal prosecutors to review the committee’s findings over the course of their own investigations. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/whitewater/timeline.htm">in 1994, Attorney General Janet Reno appointed an independent counsel</a> to investigate property investments in the Whitewater Development Corp. made by Bill and Hillary Clinton when they were governor and first lady of Arkansas. </p>
<p>A year later, the Senate established a special committee to conduct its own Whitewater inquiry. <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CRPT-104srpt280/pdf/CRPT-104srpt280.pdf">In the Republican majority’s final report</a>, the committee accused the Clinton administration of “highly improper conduct.” But it stopped short of recommending criminal indictments. </p>
<p>In a follow-up letter <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1997/gen/resources/infocus/whitewater/repub.letter.html">to independent counsel Kenneth Starr</a>, the committee suggested that he “take whatever action you deem appropriate” after reviewing the committee’s evidence against three Clinton aides. <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/politics/070199hubbell-starr.html">Starr later indicted one of those aides for fraud</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Many circus clowns in a room watching a TV." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Senate’s Watergate hearings, which began May 17, 1973, were watched by an estimated 3 out of 4 of the nation’s homes. Clowns on a break from Shrine Circus in Pittsburgh watched during their time off.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/between-the-acts-clowns-from-the-shrine-circus-take-time-to-news-photo/1169767644?phrase=watergate%20hearing&adppopup=true">Bettmann Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Legislative recommendations</h2>
<p>Committee reports often include guides for policy reform in both the executive and legislative branches to address the failures that sparked the investigation. </p>
<p>Perhaps a committee’s most far-reaching set of legislative proposals came <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/investigations/church-committee.htm">after the Church Committee investigated</a> the CIA’s role in the assassination of foreign leaders and its potentially unconstitutional domestic surveillance. The committee in 1976 made 96 recommendations for reforming the U.S. intelligence community in <a href="https://www.aarclibrary.org/publib/contents/church/contents_church_reports_ir.htm">its final six-volume report</a>. </p>
<p>Two years after the report’s release, Congress followed through. It passed <a href="https://bja.ojp.gov/program/it/privacy-civil-liberties/authorities/statutes/1286">the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act</a>, commonly known as “FISA.” The law required intelligence agencies to obtain warrants before conducting surveillance on American citizens. </p>
<p>In light of the committee’s revelations of the FBI’s spying on activists like Martin Luther King Jr. – <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/encyclopedia/federal-bureau-investigation-fbi">approved by the long-standing agency director, J. Edgar Hoover</a> – Congress also established a single 10-year term for FBI directors. </p>
<p>And while Congress did not enact the Church Committee’s proposal to <a href="https://www.aarclibrary.org/publib/church/reports/ir/html/ChurchIR_0148a.htm">ban foreign assassinations</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Executive-Order-11905">President Gerald Ford did so</a> via executive order in 1976. This order was revised, yet <a href="https://irp.fas.org/crs/RS21037.pdf">upheld, by Presidents Carter, Reagan, Bush and Clinton</a>. But it was weakened by policies adopted for the U.S. war on terror beginning in 2001. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fomOeIhEWDg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">CIA Director William Colby is interrogated by Sen. Frank Church at a 1975 hearing of the Church Committee on intelligence operations. Colby exhibits a dart pistol that fires poisonous ammunition.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Institutional modifications</h2>
<p>Committees can make suggestions for increasing the ease and effectiveness of future oversight, both inside and outside Congress. Such a move can be sold to fellow legislators as a nonpartisan imperative for checking executive power.</p>
<p>For example, after the conclusion of the Truman Committee’s World War II-era investigation in which it was charged with “<a href="https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/PSI%20Historical%20Background%20-%20Updated%20to%20116th%20Congress.pdf">exposing waste, fraud, and abuse in the war effort and war profiteering</a>,” Congress made the committee permanent, establishing the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. That subcommittee currently has the broadest investigative jurisdiction of any Senate committee, with the power to investigate all government agencies as well as all “<a href="https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/PSI%20Historical%20Background%20-%20Updated%20to%20116th%20Congress.pdf">aspects of crime and lawlessness within the United States which … affect the national health, welfare, and safety</a>.”</p>
<p>And in response to the Church Committee’s suggestion in 1976, Congress established Permanent Select Committees on Intelligence <a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/10535577">in the House</a> <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/about">and Senate</a>. Both have access to classified information and oversight of the U.S. intelligence community, including the CIA and the National Security Agency. </p>
<p>Congress can also pass laws to facilitate or strengthen oversight within government agencies themselves. For instance, <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-92/pdf/STATUTE-92-Pg1101.pdf">the Inspector General Act of 1978</a> established centralized, independent oversight offices in major government agencies. It <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45450">was inspired by</a> a <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/63790NCJRS.pdf">House committee’s final report</a> on waste and mismanagement in the Department of Health, Education and Welfare. </p>
<h2>Political effects</h2>
<p>Committee reports may also have important political consequences, though those effects are not necessarily planned or anticipated. </p>
<p>During its 2014-2016 investigation, for instance, the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/committee/house-select-committee-on-the-events-surrounding-the-2012-terrorist-attack-in-benghazi/hlzi00">House Benghazi committee</a> discovered that Hillary Clinton had improperly used a private email server when she was secretary of state.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/29/us/politics/hillary-clinton-benghazi.html">The committee did not recommend criminal charges against Clinton</a>. But it condemned the State Department for delays in turning over Clinton’s emails to the committee <a href="https://www.congress.gov/114/crpt/hrpt848/CRPT-114hrpt848.pdf">and argued that</a> “[T]he manner in which those records were housed during and after her tenure … makes it impossible to ever represent to the families of those killed in Benghazi that the record is whole.” </p>
<p>The email controversy would dog Clinton in her 2016 campaign for the presidency. The decision by FBI Director James Comey, in October 2016, <a href="https://vault.fbi.gov/director-comey-letter-to-congress-dated-october-28-2016/Director%20Comey%20Letter%20to%20Congress%20Dated%20October%2028%2C%202016%20Part%2001%20of%2001/view">to inform Congress of new information</a> regarding Clinton’s emails <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/">may have contributed to her loss to Donald Trump in November 2016</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195999/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Leavitt has received funding from the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) and the Levin Center for Oversight and Democracy. </span></em></p>The House Jan. 6 committee’s final report is the latest in a long series of congressional studies that have tried to answer hard questions about government failures and suggest ways to avoid them.Claire Leavitt, Assistant Professor of Government, Smith CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1941572022-12-01T13:39:41Z2022-12-01T13:39:41ZHealthy democracy requires trust – these 3 things could start to restore voters’ declining faith in US elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497058/original/file-20221123-18-lpn52t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5982%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Election workers sort ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center on Nov. 9, 2022, in Phoenix. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/election-workers-sort-ballots-at-the-maricopa-county-news-photo/1440340552?phrase=counting%20ballots&adppopup=true">John Moore/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2022 U.S. midterm elections ran relatively smoothly and faced few consequential accusations of fraud or mismanagement. Yet <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/10/31/two-years-after-election-turmoil-gop-voters-remain-skeptical-on-elections-vote-counts/">many Americans</a> don’t trust this essential element of a democracy.</p>
<p>It’s dangerous for peace and stability when the public doubts democratic elections. Disastrous events like the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/09/us/capitol-rioters.html">insurrection by supporters of President Donald Trump at the U.S. Capitol</a> in January 2021 make that clear. </p>
<p>But there are subtler effects of such doubt. Trump isn’t the only instigator of this distrust, which he sowed with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/15/2020-election-trump-false-fraud-claims/">his false assertions that the 2020 presidential vote was “rigged”</a> and that he was the legitimate winner of the election. </p>
<p>Study after study – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381608080730">in both the U.S.</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.07.015">around the world</a> – make clear that trust in elections predicts <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414010374021">whether a person votes</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/why-electoral-integrity-matters/for-political-behavior/92670DCFC363F01857B5CDD69ACB8F75">decides to participate in politics</a> in other ways, like attending peaceful demonstrations or even discussing politics. If people don’t think that elections are fair, then they don’t see the point in taking the steps that maintain democracy. </p>
<p>Healthy democracies are countries where regular elections lead to peaceful transfers of power. Citizens are essential to this process, especially as their votes and peaceful protests hold politicians accountable. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818313000465">Their beliefs about election credibility</a> determine whether they are willing and able to play this role.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497062/original/file-20221123-24-fkqa52.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four voters standing at voting booths, backs to the camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497062/original/file-20221123-24-fkqa52.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497062/original/file-20221123-24-fkqa52.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497062/original/file-20221123-24-fkqa52.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497062/original/file-20221123-24-fkqa52.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497062/original/file-20221123-24-fkqa52.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497062/original/file-20221123-24-fkqa52.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497062/original/file-20221123-24-fkqa52.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voters cast their ballots at the Madison Senior Center on Nov. 8, 2022, in Madison, Wisconsin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voters-cast-their-ballots-at-the-madison-senior-center-on-news-photo/1244621106?phrase=voters&adppopup=true">Jim Vondruska/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Winners trust elections – losers don’t</h2>
<p>The consequences of the Capitol riot continue to loom large. The congressional hearings investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection have revealed the extent of then-President Trump’s desire to challenge the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s victory. In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/21/trump-i-dont-want-say-election-over-outtake">behind-the-scenes footage</a> from his address on Jan. 7, 2021, to the nation, Trump said, “I don’t want to say the election is over.”</p>
<p>Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021, were hardly the first time he sowed distrust in American elections. <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-election-observers-226981">While campaigning in 2016</a>, he warned the election could be “rigged” and called on his supporters to be “Trump Election Observers.” Trump built on the claims of earlier Republican politicians who for years stoked fears about what they called “voter fraud,” even though <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2103619118">nonpartisan experts demonstrate</a> such fraud is rare in American elections. </p>
<p>Although GOP politicians have done the most to sow distrust in American elections, some Democrats have also questioned the fairness of elections. In 2018, Stacey Abrams <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/03/politics/stacey-abrams-concession-2018-georgia/index.html">acknowledged losing the race for governor of Georgia to incumbent Brian Kemp, but said</a> “the game was rigged against the voters of Georgia.”</p>
<p>Waning trust in elections not only turns off voters, but it also leads to other problems. Trump supporters <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/09/11/trump-election-deniers-voting/">deliberately overwhelmed local election officials</a> before the midterms with information requests related to 2020 voting records. Other voters were “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/technology/midterm-elections-misinformation.html">angry and confused</a>,” uncertain about how to vote by mail and voting machines.</p>
<p>This situation is made worse by polarization in the United States. Many members of the American public will incorrectly question the accuracy of the midterms. As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=VK7h_LsAAAAJ&hl=en">political scientists</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jJiEJSQAAAAJ&hl=en">who study elections and democracy</a>, we anticipate that post-election distrust will be <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/25/politics/election-questions-arizona-results/index.html">especially high among the voters who supported candidates who lost</a>. </p>
<p>Polarization widens the gap in trust between election winners and losers because partisans rely on different news sources, and some of them may even <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/polarization-versus-democracy/">start to care more about their party winning</a> than about democracy.</p>
<p>In 2016, for example, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/monitors-and-meddlers/A3821F3D0F727DEBA390F629E00BFFBD">our surveys of Americans</a> showed that Hillary Clinton’s supporters went into the presidential election thinking it would be significantly more credible than Trump’s supporters thought it would be. Prior to the election, Clinton’s supporters gave the election an average of 7.5 on a 10-point scale of credibility; Trump supporters gave the election an average of 5.4 on a 10-point scale of credibility.</p>
<p>After the election, Trump supporters were much more confident than Clinton supporters in the credibility of the election. Trump supporters gave an average 8.4 vs. Clinton supporters’ 5.4 on the same 10-point scale. </p>
<p>There was an even larger partisan gap after the 2020 presidential election, with Biden’s supporters expressing twice as much confidence in the election than Trump supporters. And the aftermath of that election is well known – the Jan. 6 insurrection.</p>
<h2>Fostering faith</h2>
<p>Can Americans’ trust in elections be rebuilt?</p>
<p>Answering that question is complicated by the country’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/good-faith-and-the-honor-of-partisan-election-officials-used-to-be-enough-to-ensure-trust-in-voting-results-but-not-anymore-189510">decentralized system of election management</a>. Researchers have found that trust can be enhanced when whole countries reform their electoral systems to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.01.005">make them fairer and more transparent</a>. Although American elections are democratic, it is difficult to highlight specific qualities – or implement reforms that would make elections even better – because election administration varies from state to state. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912908324870">Poll worker training</a> and other measures that make it likely that voters have a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12940">positive experience on election day</a> can improve Americans’ trust in their elections. This will likely happen at a local level.</p>
<p>Another way that countries help the public understand election quality is through positive reports from trusted election observers, both domestic and international. More than <a href="https://doi.org/10.7591/9780801460777">80% of national elections</a> in the world have international monitors present. But, <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/peace/democracy/cc-us-election-observation.pdf">according to a study by the Carter Center and the National Conference of State Legislatures</a>, 15 American states do not allow nonpartisan election observers to monitor polling stations. These states generally do allow partisan election observers, so that means citizens will be able to rely only on party-aligned reports – which citizens may not trust.</p>
<p>One valuable reform <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/monitors-and-meddlers/A3821F3D0F727DEBA390F629E00BFFBD">that would enhance the public’s trust</a> would be to make it possible for nonpartisan groups to observe American elections more widely. In fact, many of the leaders in this practice abroad – like the <a href="http://www.cartercenter.org/">Carter Center</a> and the nonpartisan <a href="https://www.ndi.org/">National Democratic Institute</a> – are based in the U.S.</p>
<p>There is precedent for monitoring in American elections by such groups as the nonpartisan <a href="https://www.lwv.org/tag/election-observers">League of Women Voters</a>. The U.S. government has also invited observers from international organizations, such as the <a href="http://www.oas.org/EOMDatabase/default.aspx?Lang=En">Organization of American States</a> and <a href="https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/usa">Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe</a>, to monitor elections under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Trump.</p>
<p>Giving monitors access to more state elections and publicizing their work is a step toward rebuilding Americans’ trust in elections. We know this from national surveys of the American public we conducted around the 2016, 2018 and 2020 elections. <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/monitors-and-meddlers/A3821F3D0F727DEBA390F629E00BFFBD">We consistently found</a> that telling Americans that monitors reported the elections were fair increased citizens’ trust. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497070/original/file-20221123-12-ogsokd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Police and someone holding a US flag, fighting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497070/original/file-20221123-12-ogsokd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497070/original/file-20221123-12-ogsokd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497070/original/file-20221123-12-ogsokd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497070/original/file-20221123-12-ogsokd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497070/original/file-20221123-12-ogsokd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497070/original/file-20221123-12-ogsokd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497070/original/file-20221123-12-ogsokd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What happens when people don’t trust elections? They can get violent, as they did on Jan. 6, 2021, at the U.S. Capitol.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/capitol-police-and-mpd-used-physical-force-and-tear-gas-to-news-photo/1230477043?phrase=january%206%202021%20capitol&adppopup=true">Shay Horse/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Politicizing election administration</h2>
<p>Steps like allowing nonpartisan monitors and publicizing their positive assessments can only go so far toward reversing Americans’ declining trust in elections. </p>
<p>If politicians continue to express doubt about the fairness and legitimacy of American elections, whether warranted or unwarranted, the damaging effect of their messages will be difficult to correct. </p>
<p>And some elected officials are taking steps to actively undermine not just perceptions of election credibility, but election integrity itself. For example, the nonpartisan organizations States United Democracy Center and Protect Democracy in August 2022 identified <a href="https://statesuniteddemocracy.org/resources/dcitm-august-2022/">24 bills that have been enacted across 17 states</a> that politicize and interfere with professional election administration. </p>
<p>The politicization of election administration threatens to further erode public trust in election integrity. Democracy depends on the public’s active participation in elections and acceptance of their results.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194157/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Bush has received funding from the National Science Foundation and New Initiatives Grant in Election Science, MIT Election Data & Science Grant. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Prather has received funding from the National Science Foundation and New Initiatives Grant in Election Science, MIT Election Data & Science Grant.</span></em></p>Despite a midterm election largely free of controversy over its legitimacy, a large percentage of Americans distrust elections. And that’s dangerous for democracy.Sarah Bush, Associate Professor, Political Science, Yale UniversityLauren Prather, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of California, San DiegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1935872022-11-07T20:10:44Z2022-11-07T20:10:44ZIf Democrats prevail during the midterms, TV advertising might have something to do with it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493358/original/file-20221103-16-qtqex5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A vote sign appears at a campaign event for Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak and U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro in Las Vegas on Nov. 1, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/an-attendees-sign-reading-vote-is-pictured-during-a-campaign-event-picture-id1244419536?s=612x612">Ronda Churchill/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The neck-and-neck race <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/31/us/politics/democrats-republicans-senate-election-polls.html">for control of the U.S. Senate</a> is particularly unwelcome news for Democrats. Not long ago, it looked as if they could <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/27/democrats-senate-midterms-republicans">maintain or even expand</a> their slim Senate majority. Now, control of the chamber is <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo">essentially a toss-up</a>.</p>
<p>But if Democratic candidates do emerge victorious in <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/15/senate-swing-state-polls-midterms-00061877">key swing states</a> such as Pennsylvania, one plausible explanation is a simple one – they ran more television ads than their Republican opponents. It might seem odd to credit old-fashioned television advertising in this digital era. But <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/03/republicans-democrats-political-ads-us-midterms">television advertising</a> does win votes – and it might make the difference in 2022.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305542100112X">comprehensive study</a> of television advertising and election outcomes published in November 2021, political scientists <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=KIv0CKgAAAAJ&hl=en">Lynn Vavreck</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MbQMZ54AAAAJ&hl=en">Chris Warshaw</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Y865yLYAAAAJ&hl=en">and I</a> combined <a href="https://mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/">broadcast television advertising data</a> with county-level election returns for over 4,500 races between 2000 and 2018. These races included elections for president, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governors and other statewide offices. </p>
<p>Our research also considered advertising run by political party organizations and independent groups that favored one candidate or another – not just ads run by candidates themselves. </p>
<p>This data enabled us to see whether the candidate who leads in television ads actually wins more votes. Moreover, we extended the analysis beyond presidential elections – the usual focus of political reporters and academic researchers – to examine the degree to which advertising matters further down the ballot in state and local elections. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XXTehIpZdp0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania senator, released an ad that mentions his stroke in May 2022.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The role of TV ads in elections</h2>
<p>Overall, we found that TV ads didn’t change voters’ preferences for presidential candidates in presidential elections from 2000 to 2016 – an unsurprising finding given that presidential candidates are relatively well known and many voters can’t easily be persuaded to switch sides.</p>
<p>TV advertising’s effects were even smaller in the 2020 presidential election than in previous years. In our 2021 book about that election, “<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691213453/the-bitter-end">The Bitter End</a>,” Vavreck, Chris Tausanovitch and I found that Joe Biden did air far more ads than Donald Trump in almost every battleground state media market. </p>
<p>Biden’s advertising advantage was larger than Hillary Clinton’s <a href="https://mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-2016personalpolicy/">advantage</a> over Trump in 2016. Although Biden won a larger share of the vote than Clinton did, his vote share across U.S. counties was not related to his advertising advantage in those places.</p>
<p>But in other types of races, ads are more effective at swaying voters. In Senate races, the effect of advertising on election outcomes is twice as large as in presidential races. Ads hold even more sway in U.S. House, gubernatorial and other statewide races.</p>
<p>The key reason is that advertising appears to provide more information for voters in those other races, in which the candidates are often unfamiliar. We found that the more U.S. Senate and House candidates advertise, the more people are able to identify them as liberal or conservative and to express an opinion about them, favorable or unfavorable. By contrast, presidential advertising has a smaller effect on what voters know and feel about the candidates.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493101/original/file-20221102-20-22xyb5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493101/original/file-20221102-20-22xyb5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493101/original/file-20221102-20-22xyb5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493101/original/file-20221102-20-22xyb5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493101/original/file-20221102-20-22xyb5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493101/original/file-20221102-20-22xyb5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493101/original/file-20221102-20-22xyb5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493101/original/file-20221102-20-22xyb5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A screenshot from Joe Biden’s TV ad in 2020 shows him connecting with voters.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A balance</h2>
<p>The balance of advertising matters, too. </p>
<p>The more U.S. House or Senate candidates lead in television advertising, the more voters view them favorably relative to their opponent. The incentive, then, is for candidates to raise the substantial sums of money needed for a robust presence on the airwaves. The cost of a TV spot depends on a lot of factors and varies significantly across media markets. So the amount that candidates need depends as well.</p>
<p>Raising money is precisely what some Republican candidates have struggled to do in 2022. In particular, the Senate candidates most closely associated with Trump – like Blake Masters in Arizona, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, J.D. Vance in Ohio and Herschel Walker in Georgia – have raised <a href="https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/fundraising">less money</a> than their Democratic opponents. In this sense, they were no different from Trump, who was outspent in both <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/pres16">2016</a> and <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race">2020</a>.</p>
<p>This has given Democratic Senate candidates an advantage in advertising. According to <a href="https://mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-102022/">Wesleyan Advertising Project data</a> there were 2,678 more ads favoring Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock than ads favoring Walker from Oct. 3-16, 2022. </p>
<p>There were 3,722 more ads favoring Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman than those favoring Oz. The gap between Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and his opponent Masters was even larger: 5,448. Only in Ohio was there rough parity during the same time period. </p>
<p>This Democratic advantage was present <a href="https://mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-092222/">in September 2022 as well</a>. For example, Kelly aired 5,778 more ads than Masters from Sept. 5 through Sept. 18.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/J59yo3XQNQ8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Mehmet Oz, the Pennsylvania Senate candidate known as Dr. Oz, released a TV ad focused on guns in 2022.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A factor in the 2022 elections</h2>
<p>It is not yet clear what the overall balance of ads will be as of Election Day. And there’s no way to show definitively that television advertising decides any particular election, including the upcoming midterms. But a little back-of-the-envelope math suggests that a Democratic advantage could matter.</p>
<p>Take the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, where Democrats <a href="https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-health-pennsylvania-a90b608e6c4e6face4eaf8a70e2cf5d4">are fretting</a> that Fetterman’s performance in his Oct. 25, 2022, debate with Oz may have hurt his chances. </p>
<p>Our research shows that in elections from 2000 to 2018, Senate candidates who aired 1,000 more ads than their opponent between Sept. 1 and Election Day won an additional 0.4 percentage points of vote share. So if Fetterman ends up with a 3,000-ad advantage over this period, then he would win an additional 1.2 points, if the estimate from 2000-2018 holds. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493352/original/file-20221103-15-5pz4zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A TV on a wall above a restaurant booth shows a white man in a blue shirt with the words 'Tom 2020 Democrat for president' next to him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493352/original/file-20221103-15-5pz4zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493352/original/file-20221103-15-5pz4zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493352/original/file-20221103-15-5pz4zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493352/original/file-20221103-15-5pz4zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493352/original/file-20221103-15-5pz4zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493352/original/file-20221103-15-5pz4zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493352/original/file-20221103-15-5pz4zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An advertisement for Tom Steyer’s presidential campaign plays in a grocery store in Waverly, Iowa, in January 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/an-advertisement-for-tom-steyers-presidential-campaign-plays-inside-picture-id1196692334?s=612x612">Jessica Rinaldi/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similar math might apply in Arizona’s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/">Senate race</a> between Kelly and Masters. Assume for the sake of argument that a <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/26/super-pac-gave-3-7-million-ad-boost-blake-masters-opposing-kelly/10609679002/">late burst of advertising</a> will help Masters narrow the gap at least somewhat, such that Kelly ends up airing roughly 10,000 more ads than Masters over the fall campaign. That would translate into 4 points of vote share – or just a bit more than his <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/">3.6-point lead</a> in the polls.</p>
<p>Of course, these are hypothetical calculations. But if the historical relationship between advertising and election outcomes holds in 2022, and if Democrats eke out narrow wins in key Senate races, then television advertising could plausibly be a reason – even in an era of smartphones and TikTok.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193587/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John M. Sides is affiliated with the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group.</span></em></p>While TV political ads might seem old-fashioned in the age of social media, research shows that this kind of advertising does win votes – and could influence the upcoming midterms.John M. Sides, Professor and William R. Kenan, Jr. Chair in the Department of Political Science , Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1927002022-10-24T12:26:58Z2022-10-24T12:26:58ZWith memories of embarrassments still fresh, election pollsters face big tests in 2022 midterm elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491085/original/file-20221021-25-d8dvr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C17%2C5982%2C3943&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In Maine's 2020 Senate race, not one poll showed the GOP incumbent, Susan Collins, in the lead. But she trounced her Democratic challenger by 9 points.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2020SenateCollins/4302c0740b4541308ff14ebe8a102b81/photo?Query=susan%20collins%20sara%20gideon&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=81&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When it became clear his poll had erred in the 2021 New Jersey governor’s race, Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, acknowledged:</p>
<p>“I blew it.”</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_nj_102721/">campaign’s final Monmouth poll</a> estimated Gov. Phil Murphy’s lead over Republican foe Jack Ciattarelli at 11 percentage points – a margin that “did not provide an accurate picture of the state of the governor’s race,” Murray later said in a newspaper commentary. Murphy won by 3.2 points.</p>
<p>It was a refreshingly candid acknowledgment by an election pollster.</p>
<p>More broadly, the error was <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-embarrassing-failure-for-election-pollsters-149499">one of several in the recent past</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/26/pollsters-fear-elections-2024-00058506">looms among the disquieting</a> omens confronting pollsters in the 2022 midterm elections. Will they be embarrassed again? Will their polls in high-profile U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races produce misleading indications of election outcomes? </p>
<p>Such questions are hardly far-fetched or irrelevant, given election polling’s tattered recent record. A few prominent survey organizations in recent years <a href="https://time.com/4067019/gallup-horse-race-polling/">have given up on election polling</a>, with no signs of returning. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491086/original/file-20221021-26-8taa0g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A shocked looking woman in a crowd, with her hand over her mouth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491086/original/file-20221021-26-8taa0g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491086/original/file-20221021-26-8taa0g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491086/original/file-20221021-26-8taa0g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491086/original/file-20221021-26-8taa0g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491086/original/file-20221021-26-8taa0g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491086/original/file-20221021-26-8taa0g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491086/original/file-20221021-26-8taa0g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Worried supporters of Democratic incumbent New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy at an election night event in 2021. Murphy, who one state poll estimated was leading his GOP challenger by 11 percentage points, won by 3.2 points.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-react-as-new-jersey-governor-phil-murphy-speaks-news-photo/1236310210?phrase=election%20Phil%20Murphy&adppopup=true">Mark Makela/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Treat polls warily</h2>
<p>It is important to keep in mind that polls are not always in error, a point noted in my 2020 book, “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520300965/lost-in-a-gallup">Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections</a>.” But polls have been wrong often enough over the years that they deserve to be treated warily and with skepticism.</p>
<p>For a reminder, one need look no further than New Jersey in 2021 or, more expansively, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020-poll-errors/2021/07/18/8d6a9838-e7df-11eb-ba5d-55d3b5ffcaf1_story.html">to the 2020 presidential election</a>. The polls pointed to Democrat Joe Biden’s winning the presidency but underestimated popular support for President Donald Trump by nearly 4 percentage points overall. </p>
<p>That made for polling’s worst collective performance in a presidential campaign in 40 years, and post-election analyses were <a href="https://theconversation.com/survey-experts-have-yet-to-figure-out-what-caused-the-most-significant-polling-error-in-40-years-in-trump-biden-race-160967">at a loss to explain</a> the misfire. One theory was that Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/us/politics/trump-polls.html">hostility</a> to election surveys dissuaded supporters from answering pollsters’ questions.</p>
<p>In any case, polling troubles in 2020 were not confined to the presidential race: In several Senate and gubernatorial campaigns, polls also overstated support for Democratic candidates. Among the notable flubs was the U.S. Senate race in <a href="https://www.bangordailynews.com/2020/11/05/politics/susan-collins-defied-the-polls-heres-what-they-may-have-gotten-wrong/">Maine</a>, where polls signaled defeat for the Republican incumbent, Susan Collins. <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/me/maine_senate_collins_vs_gideon-6928.html">Not one survey</a> in the weeks before the election placed Collins in the lead. </p>
<p>She <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/12/22/the-political-survival-of-susan-collins/">won reelection</a> by nearly 9 points.</p>
<h2>Recalling the shock of 2016</h2>
<p>The embarrassing outcomes of 2020 followed a stunning failure in 2016, when off-target polls in key Great Lakes states <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/upshot/a-2016-review-why-key-state-polls-were-wrong-about-trump.html">confounded expectations of Hillary Clinton’s election to the presidency</a>. They largely failed to detect late-campaign shifts in support to Trump, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/AP-explains-elections-popular-vote-743f5cb6c70fce9489c9926a907855eb">who won a clear Electoral College victory despite losing</a> the national popular vote.</p>
<p>Past performance is not always prologue in election surveys; polling failures are seldom alike. Even so, qualms about a misfire akin to those of the recent past have emerged during this campaign. </p>
<p>In September 2022, Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for The New York Times, cited the possibility of misleading polls in key races, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/upshot/polling-midterms-warning.html">writing</a> that “the warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.”</p>
<p>There has been some shifting in Senate polls since then, and surely there will be more before Nov. 8. In Wisconsin, for example, recent surveys suggest Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has opened a lead over Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes. Johnson’s advantage was <a href="https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2022/10/12/new-marquette-law-school-poll-survey-of-wisconsin-voters-finds-johnson-leading-barnes-in-senate-race-evers-and-michels-in-a-gubernatorial-toss-up/">estimated</a> at 6 percentage points not long ago in a Marquette Law School Poll.</p>
<p>The spotlight on polling this election season is unsurprising, given that key <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/15/senate-swing-state-polls-midterms-00061877">Senate races</a> – including those featuring flawed candidates in Pennsylvania and <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/what-will-happen-in-georgia/ar-AA12Hpro">Georgia</a> – will determine partisan control of the upper house of Congress.</p>
<h2>Worth doing?</h2>
<p>Polling is neither easy nor cheap if done well, and the field’s persistent troubles have even prompted the question whether election surveys are worth the bother.</p>
<p>Monmouth’s Murray spoke to that sentiment, <a href="https://www.nj.com/opinion/2021/11/pollster-i-blew-it-maybe-its-time-to-get-rid-of-election-polls-opinion.html">stating</a>: “If we cannot be certain that these polling misses are anomalies then we have a responsibility to consider whether releasing horse race numbers in close proximity to an election is making a positive or negative contribution to the political discourse.”</p>
<p>He noted that prominent survey organizations such as Pew Research and Gallup <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/gallup-poll-2016-pollsters-214493">quit</a> election polls several years ago to focus on issue-oriented survey research. “Perhaps,” Murray wrote, “that is a wise move.”</p>
<p>Questions about the <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/09/why-horse-race-political-journalism-awesome-223867/">value</a> of election polling run through the history of survey research and never have been fully settled. Early pollsters such as George Gallup and Elmo Roper were at odds about such matters. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03637759709376412">Gallup used to argue</a> that election polls were acid tests, proxies for measuring the effectiveness of surveys of all types. <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520300965/lost-in-a-gallup">Roper equated election polling to stunts</a> like “tearing a telephone book in two” – impressive, but not all that consequential. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491088/original/file-20221021-21-vfyg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screenshot of a story in the New York Times about polling mistakes in the US 2016 presidential election." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491088/original/file-20221021-21-vfyg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491088/original/file-20221021-21-vfyg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491088/original/file-20221021-21-vfyg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491088/original/file-20221021-21-vfyg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491088/original/file-20221021-21-vfyg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491088/original/file-20221021-21-vfyg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491088/original/file-20221021-21-vfyg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pollsters in 2016 predicted Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton would win some states that she actually lost.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/upshot/a-2016-review-why-key-state-polls-were-wrong-about-trump.html">Screenshot, New York Times</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Who is and isn’t responding</h2>
<p>Experimentation, meanwhile, has swept the field, as contemporary pollsters seek new ways of reaching participants and gathering data. </p>
<p>Placing calls to landlines and cellphones – once polling’s <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/methodology/">gold standard methodology</a> – is expensive and not always effective, as completion rates in such polls tend to hover in the low single digits. Many people ignore calls from numbers they do not recognize, or decline to participate when they do answer.</p>
<p>Some polling organizations have adopted a blend of survey techniques, an approach known as “methodological diversity.” CNN <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/10/politics/cnn-polling-new-methodology/index.html">announced</a> in 2021, for example, that it would include online interviews with phone-based samples in polls that it commissions. A blended approach, the cable network said, should allow “the researchers behind the CNN poll to have a better understanding of who is and who is not responding.”</p>
<p>During an <a href="https://ecornell.cornell.edu/keynotes/view/K012121/">online discussion last year</a>, Scott <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/ft_21-04-06_pollingqa_keeterheadshot/">Keeter</a> of Pew Research said “methodological diversity is absolutely critical” for pollsters at a time when “cooperation is going down [and] distrust of institutions is going up. We need to figure out lots of ways to get at our subjects and to gather information from them.”</p>
<p>So what lies immediately ahead for election polling and the 2022 midterms? </p>
<p>Some polls of prominent races may well misfire. Such errors could even be eye-catching. </p>
<p>But will the news media continue to report frequently on polls in election cycles ahead? </p>
<p>Undoubtedly.</p>
<p>After all, leading media outlets, both national and regional, have been survey contributors for years, conducting or commissioning – and publicizing – election polls of their own.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192700/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Joseph Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Will some polls misfire in prominent races in the 2022 midterms? Probably. Will such errors be eye-catching? In some cases, perhaps. Will the news media continue to tout polls? Undoubtedly.W. Joseph Campbell, Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of CommunicationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1922402022-10-18T12:37:48Z2022-10-18T12:37:48ZWho’s the most electable candidate? The one you like<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489834/original/file-20221014-18-ais06p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C4948%2C3276&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">GOP primary voters in 2022 often chose the Trumpiest candidate, even if they had substantial electoral vulnerabilities, as does Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters, shown here with Donald Trump.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-u-s-president-donald-trump-shakes-hands-with-news-photo/1432098229?phrase=Blake%20masters&adppopup=true">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/11/us/politics/democrats-electability.html">Electability was a significant force motivating</a> voters in the 2022 Democratic primaries. </p>
<p>But what is it? What makes one candidate seem like they could get votes from a majority of voters while another one couldn’t? </p>
<p>Objectively, <a href="https://polisci.indiana.edu/about/faculty/hershey-marjorie.html">political scientists like myself</a> have done a lot of research on what types of candidates win and lose. We find that moderate candidates tend to win general elections more often than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000023">far-left or far-right candidates</a> do. Despite the widespread assumption that women are less electable than men, research shows that <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-women-candidates-data/">women candidates are at least as likely to succeed as men</a>. That was true in 2018 and 2020, as well as in 2022 primaries for Congress and governor. It’s especially likely when an election year is dominated by scandal, because <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/09/20/2-views-on-leadership-traits-and-competencies-and-how-they-intersect-with-gender/">women are stereotypically viewed</a> as more honest than men. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Women are stereotypically viewed as more honest than men. Pictured here, an Amy Klobuchar supporter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-wears-various-political-pins-during-democratic-news-photo/1205632339?adppopup=true">Getty/Scott Eisen</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In legislatures, incumbents probably have a better chance of getting caught at inappropriate texting than they are of losing renomination in their primary or failing to win. And we know that when incumbents do lose, it’s because their challengers <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781538123416/The-Politics-of-Congressional-Elections-Tenth-Edition">surpassed the fundraising threshold</a> that could match the incumbent’s advantages in media coverage, name recognition and other factors, no matter how much the incumbent spent. </p>
<h2>Primaries can upend the rules</h2>
<p>Of course in general elections, the candidate’s party label is the single major determinant of electability. Most election districts are now dominated by one party, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/153244000400400406">in large part due to gerrymandering</a>. So the dominant party’s candidate is usually assured of winning.</p>
<p>Note the “usually.” </p>
<p>At times, electability in a primary can make a candidate less electable in the general election. Republican Senate primaries offered some interesting examples in 2022. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/08/us/politics/senate-midterm-elections.html">The U.S. Senate is a major battleground in the 2022 midterms</a> because it is currently divided: 50 Democrats, 50 Republicans. Because the <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/What_happens_if_U.S._Senate_party_control_is_split_50-50">vice president casts the deciding vote when there’s a tie</a> in the Senate, Democrats currently control that body because the current vice president is a Democrat. But if Republicans can gain a net of at least one Senate seat in 2022, the Senate will be under Republican control.</p>
<p>Yet in primary elections in several states, Republican primary voters selected the Senate candidate with arguably the weakest chance of winning or holding that seat: think of <a href="https://theconversation.com/dr-oz-should-be-worried-voters-punish-carpetbaggers-and-new-research-shows-why-188569">Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, a longtime New Jersey resident</a> who only recently moved to Pennsylvania; <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/28/us/politics/blake-masters-arizona-senate.html">Blake Masters in Arizona</a>, who has raised only one-tenth the funding of his opponent; and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/04/1126692026/herschel-walker-rejects-abortion-report-georgia-republican">Herschel Walker in Georgia, an anti-abortion candidate</a> who allegedly paid for his girlfriend’s abortion.</p>
<p>The reason these relatively weak candidates emerged victorious in Republican primaries is that those who turn out to <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0894439315595483">vote in primaries tend to be partisan stalwarts</a>: those with the most deeply held views. In <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/08/03/donald-trump-primaries-control-gop/10222402002/">Republican primaries in 2022, pro-Donald Trump partisans were a major force</a>, and voters often chose the Trumpiest candidate, even if he or she had substantial personal, fundraising or electoral vulnerabilities.</p>
<h2>Looking at polls, money and mirrors</h2>
<p>One way to gauge electability before an election is to look at fundraising data and polls. Early in a campaign, though, poll data often says more about a candidate’s name recognition than his or her public support. </p>
<p>Yet, many people are convinced that regardless of these indicators, the candidate they like better – or dislike the least – will win the election. That was true of many <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-polls/how-the-polls-including-ours-missed-trumps-victory-idUSKBN1343O6">Hillary Clinton supporters in 2016</a>, who simply couldn’t accept that Trump could become president, and of many Trump supporters in 2020, who felt the same about Joe Biden, and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-supporters-election-fraud-belief/">continued to feel that way after the votes were counted</a>. </p>
<p>This is bolstered by “confirmation bias,” or the tendency to seek out and remember bits of information <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00214.x">that confirm your existing opinions</a>. This tendency is nothing new. </p>
<p>In 1964, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1953052">supporters of conservative Republican presidential candidate Barry Goldwater</a> believed that their man was destined to win because an invisible – except to them – conservative majority would emerge on Election Day. Goldwater lost in a landslide.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">GOP presidential candidate Barry Goldwater’s supporters thought he’d win when an invisible army of conservatives would emerge on Election Day. They didn’t.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/barry-goldwater-supporters-holding-a-sign-at-the-republican-news-photo/641760092?adppopup=true">Mickey Senko/CQ Roll Call via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That tendency is even stronger today. Many intense partisans assume that most other citizens agree with their point of view and will step up to the polls given the proper encouragement. The number of partisans who place themselves in news silos – who limit themselves to news sources that share their point of view – has become more possible because of the rise in news sources <a href="https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mprior/files/prior2005.news_v_entertainment.ajps-3.pdf">catering to one partisan or ideological perspective</a>, such as Fox News or MSNBC.</p>
<h2>Wishful thinking</h2>
<p>The problem with this kind of thinking about electability – that there’s an army of nonvoters who will rush to the polls to support your own values – is the lack of evidence.</p>
<p><a href="https://the100million.org/">A large recent survey</a> showed that nonvoters don’t differ much from voters, other than in their lack of engagement with politics. </p>
<p>“Nonvoters are also far less progressive than is commonly believed,” <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/truth-about-non-voters/607051/">wrote Yascha Mounk in The Atlantic</a>. “A clear majority of them consider themselves either moderate or conservative; only one in five say that they are liberal.” </p>
<p>Democrats often hope that <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Party-Politics-in-America-17th-Edition/Hershey/p/book/9781138683686">young people, who lean Democratic</a>, will finally decide to vote in large numbers, unlike previous voters of their generation. But even in <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/change-and-continuity-in-the-2016-and-2018-elections/oclc/1085592473">the high-turnout midterm elections of 2018</a>, people under 30 voted at much lower rates than people over 65. </p>
<p>Who then, is an electable candidate?</p>
<p>For most primary voters, the most electable candidate is whichever one that voter favors. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-candidate-you-like-is-the-one-you-think-is-most-electable-132647">of a story originally published</a> on March 9, 2020.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192240/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marjorie Hershey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Voters trust their gut when they decide who an electable candidate is or isn’t. That may be a bad idea.Marjorie Hershey, Professor Emeritus of Political Science, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1906082022-09-22T12:39:13Z2022-09-22T12:39:13ZThe Justice Department’s dilemma over prosecuting politicians before an election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485401/original/file-20220919-8431-pguqfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=999%2C251%2C4421%2C3356&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland appears at a news conference on June 13, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/attorney-general-merrick-garland-arrives-at-a-press-news-photo/1402715758?adppopup=true">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the 2022 midterm campaigns approach Election Day on Nov. 8, 2022, a federal probe into <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2022/08/timeline-of-fbi-investigation-of-trumps-handling-of-highly-classified-documents/">former President Donald Trump’s handling of classified documents</a> is testing an unwritten policy of the U.S. Justice Department. </p>
<p>Some legal analysts have suggested that the so-called <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/us/trump-investigations-midterm-elections.html">60-day rule</a> requires federal prosecutors to delay public actions during the final stages of an election to avoid influencing the perceptions of a candidate – or tipping the scale for or against a political party. </p>
<p>This goal of political neutrality appears to be adhered to by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/30/garland-justice-political-appointee-hatch/">Attorney General Merrick Garland</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/23/wray-guiding-fbi-through-threats-maga-hate-00053383">FBI Director Christopher Wray</a>. Both have largely refrained from making public comments on <a href="https://time.com/6212677/donald-trump-investigations-explained/">ongoing federal and state probes</a> into possible crimes that Trump may have committed during his time in the White House, including on <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/07/22/1112323797/jan-6-hearing-recap-187-minutes">his alleged role in the Jan. 6 assault</a> on the Capitol.</p>
<p>But political neutrality is open to interpretation.</p>
<p>In the run-up to the 2016 presidential election, the 60-day rule was apparently broken when <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/comey-book-claims-president-trump-sought-loyalty-mafia/story?id=54420635">then-FBI Director James Comey</a> made a series of controversial public statements on <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/press-releases/statement-by-fbi-director-james-b-comey-on-the-investigation-of-secretary-hillary-clinton2019s-use-of-a-personal-e-mail-system">Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server</a> during her time as secretary of state.</p>
<p>Comey’s comments began over the course of the summer and fall of 2016 and didn’t end until <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election/fbi-clears-clinton-in-email-review-two-days-before-election-idUSKBN1310WY">the weekend before Election Day</a> when he announced the end of the investigation. Clinton and her supporters claim that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/14/upshot/did-comey-cost-clinton-the-election-why-well-never-know.html">Comey’s controversial actions</a> played a role in her loss and Trump’s election.</p>
<h2>A rule, not a law</h2>
<p>The 60-day rule is <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/white-collar-and-criminal-law/doj-is-likely-to-wait-past-election-to-reveal-any-trump-charges">an interpretation of the Justice Department’s internal guidance</a> to protect the federal agency’s reputation for political neutrality. </p>
<p>Every election season, the attorney general reissues the department’s <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/merrick-garland-election-trump-charges-b2126487.html">Election Year Sensitivities memo</a> to staff. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/garland-justice-department-election-year-memo-investigating-donald-trump-2022-7">Garland issued his memo </a> on May 25, 2022. </p>
<p>“Law enforcement officers and prosecutors may never select the timing of public statements (attributed or not), investigative steps, criminal charges, or any other action in any matter or case for the purpose of affecting any election, or for the purpose of giving an advantage or disadvantage to any candidate or political party,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/19/garland-memo-presidential-candidates-investigations/">Garland’s 2022 memo explains</a>.</p>
<p>Garland’s memo essentially reiterates the language from the department’s substantial internal policy manual on election season investigations. </p>
<p>But Garland’s memo does not suggest that a clear 60-day rule exists. </p>
<p>It merely suggests that actions taken closer to an election ought to be especially scrutinized to ensure that the Justice Department does not appear to purposely advantage a candidate or party. </p>
<h2>Open to interpretation</h2>
<p>Though very few legal scholars question the existence of the 60-day rule, the scope of the rule is a matter of dispute. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/opinions/william-barr-bend-60-day-rule-honig/index.html">Former Attorney General Bill Barr</a> has interpreted the rule narrowly. He has suggested <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/06/cnn-analyst-discusses-bill-barrs-impact/">the rule may apply</a> only to activity that will harm a specific candidate. </p>
<p>Other legal observers have suggested the rule applies more broadly to investigations <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-unlikely-charged-crime-midterms-60-day-ruledoj-1741535">that might affect</a> an overall election. That might include investigations of people connected to a candidate or situations where the candidate is only tangentially related.</p>
<h2>Comey’s public comments</h2>
<p>Though Comey may not have had any desire to affect the 2016 election’s outcome, he would later <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/04/13/602106492/in-a-higher-loyalty-james-comey-describes-an-unethical-untethered-president">make an apology</a> of sorts to Clinton in his book “A Higher Loyalty.”</p>
<p>“I have read she has felt anger toward me personally, and I’m sorry for that,” <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/382938-comey-in-new-book-im-sorry-i-couldnt-better-explain-decision-on-clinton-probe/">Comey writes</a>. “I’m sorry that I couldn’t do a better job explaining to her and her supporters why I made the decisions I made.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white man dressed in a business suit gestures with his hand as he answers a questions while sitting behind a table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485405/original/file-20220919-402-s0sd2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485405/original/file-20220919-402-s0sd2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485405/original/file-20220919-402-s0sd2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485405/original/file-20220919-402-s0sd2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485405/original/file-20220919-402-s0sd2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485405/original/file-20220919-402-s0sd2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485405/original/file-20220919-402-s0sd2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former FBI Director James Comey testifies before the House Oversight Committee over Hillary Clinton’s email system on July 7, 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/july-7-2016-u-s-fbi-director-james-comey-testifies-before-news-photo/545541796?adppopup=true">Xinhua/Bao Dandan via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Apologetic or not, Comey and his actions during the 2016 presidential election caused both the FBI and the Justice Department to suffer a blow to their credibility. Following a broad 60-day rule might have saved the Justice Department and FBI from the appearance of political bias. </p>
<p>But in some situations, jettisoning the 60-day rule may be advisable.</p>
<p>If a federal investigation is particularly timely and is proceeding with no purpose of affecting an election, then it may be consistent with the underlying policy of the Justice Manual – even if doing so may be inconsistent with a broad interpretation of the 60-day rule.</p>
<p>At issue is the importance of an investigation and the danger of pausing it. </p>
<p>If the public trusts the DOJ to make the decisions about the investigation without political bias, then following the 60-day rule may not be necessary. If the public does not trust the DOJ, then following the rule may be imperative.</p>
<p>The investigation regarding the national security implications of classified documents found at Mar-a-Lago is an important test. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A number of court documents, with the one on top saying prominently 'Search and seizure warrant' in bold type and all capital letters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A judge unsealed a search warrant that shows the FBI is investigating former president Donald Trump for a possible violation of the Espionage Act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXTrumpFBI/101838a380e34baeb9395b5ccc3ae49d/photo?Query=Trump%20warrant&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=201&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Jon Elswick</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though Trump often claims federal probes into his behavior are no more than political witch hunts, there is no indication the Justice Department is continuing the investigation with the purpose of hurting or helping specific candidates or a specific party. </p>
<p>Quite naturally, any lengthy investigation may bump up against a midterm or presidential election cycle. But if halting the investigation could damage national security, then continuing it through the election season may be necessary even if the investigation affects a number of elections. </p>
<h2>The unintentional irony of the 60-day rule</h2>
<p>The rule is designed to protect the Justice Department’s reputation of neutrality by keeping partisan politics away from its investigations. </p>
<p>Arguably, the way to do that is to ignore the election calendar and run an investigation as if the election calendar did not exist. </p>
<p>Once an investigation’s course has been altered by the election calendar, it has arguably been infused with politics, and in some of those cases, justice delayed may be justice denied. </p>
<p>With strict adherence to the rule, a candidate may be elected because voters did not have all the information about the candidate’s behavior and character – an omission that challenges the democratic ideal of an informed citizenry.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190608/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henry L. Chambers Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A department rule advises federal law enforcement officials to refrain from making public comments about ongoing investigations that may impact an election in the 60 days leading up to that election.Henry L. Chambers Jr., Professor of Law, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1881742022-08-04T14:28:19Z2022-08-04T14:28:19ZUS secretary of state Antony Blinken’s visit aims to reset relations with South Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477460/original/file-20220803-11072-ek8jmv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">US secretary of state Antony Blinken.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>US secretary of state Antony Blinken has embarked on a <a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-travel-to-cambodia-the-philippines-south-africa-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-and-rwanda/">five nation tour</a> of Cambodia, the Philippines, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. </p>
<p>This is Blinken’s second trip to Africa; he visited <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/africa-reacts-secretary-blinkens-africa-tour">Nigeria, Senegal and Kenya</a> last November. The purpose of each national visit varies according to <a href="https://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00080254.html">local and regional circumstances</a>. </p>
<p>In South Africa he has two primary objectives, <a href="https://www.state.gov/east-asian-and-pacific-affairs-assistant-secretary-daniel-j-kritenbrink-and-african-affairs-assistant-secretary-molly-phee-on-the-secretarys-upcoming-travel-to-cambodia-the-philippines-sou/">according to assistant secretary Molly Phee</a>. One is to engage in a high-level “strategic dialogue” with his counterpart, international relations minister Naledi Pandor. And in Phee’s words:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Given South Africa’s leadership role, it’s an ideal location for the Secretary to deliver a speech announcing and describing the US strategy toward sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>South Africa has a long, complex, deep and vital history of relations with the US and its people. A series of dialogues at this level started <a href="https://www.gov.za/south-africa-united-states-america-strategic-dialogue">in 2010</a>, during the administrations of presidents Barack Obama and Jacob Zuma. They were suspended during the Donald Trump administration. </p>
<p>The Blinken-Pandor dialogue will include topics that have been vital to both nations since before the series began in 2010. Today, they are even more important: trade and investment, public health, agriculture, education, climate, water, science and technology, among others. </p>
<p>More Americans than ever visit South Africa. The US recently surpassed the UK and Germany as the source of South Africa’s <a href="https://www.getaway.co.za/travel-news/usa-overtakes-germany-and-uk-to-become-sas-biggest-overseas-tourists/">largest overseas tourism numbers</a>. </p>
<p>Reaffirming priorities now is important, considering domestic and international developments since the last high-level dialogue <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/minister-nkoana-mashabane-arrives-washington-us-sa-strategic-dialogue-meeting-15-sep-2015">in 2015</a>.</p>
<h2>A rocky road</h2>
<p>Relations between the US and South Africa were of little interest to <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Donald-Trumps-Presidency-International-Perspectives/dp/1633916650">Trump</a>. He immediately cancelled Obama’s large financial commitment to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/06/02/trump-will-stop-paying-into-the-green-climate-fund-he-has-no-idea-what-it-is/">Green Climate Fund</a>. The fund was designed to assist African and other nations seriously affected by climate change. This caused consternation in South Africa. </p>
<p>So did his quick announcement that the US would <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/climate/trump-paris-climate-agreement.html">withdraw</a> from the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement">Paris climate change accord</a>, vital to Africa’s well-being, and to which South African scientists have been essential. </p>
<p>President Joe Biden has reversed many of Trump’s actions. But such shifts have raised questions regarding America’s reliability.</p>
<p>In South Africa, financial scandals and <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">state capture</a> – the re-purposing and use of state organs for private gain – resulted in former president Zuma’s fall. </p>
<p>As COVID became a global pandemic, vaccine nationalism and travel bans further strained relations, even <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-impose-travel-curbs-eight-southern-african-countries-over-new-covid-19-2021-11-26/">into the Biden administration</a>.</p>
<p>Currently both nations face existential political crises, made worse by violence, xenophobia, extreme inequality, and rising voter frustration and apathy. </p>
<p>A question facing Blinken and Pandor is whether their efforts can deepen cooperation on issues of obvious practical importance to both nations, including those on the announced agenda. Reviving the high-level dialogues offers renewed opportunities to set priorities and guidelines favouring greater attention to overcoming inequalities and legacies of racial discrimination in both countries. </p>
<p>The shared goal would be to benefit national integration and support for institutions of democratic governance among <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2022-06-21/hierarchies-weakness-social-divisions">chronically disadvantaged groups of Americans and South Africans</a>. </p>
<p>On the margins of the meetings informal exchanges about priorities and commitments can be linked to their common goals to sustain nonracial, nonsexist and more equal and secure democracies. According to American University professor <a href="https://www.american.edu/sis/faculty/aacharya.cfm">Amitav Acharya</a>, progress on reconciling social divisions in the US can also yield a firmer national foundation for more effective and extensive foreign relations. </p>
<h2>Global tensions</h2>
<p>Deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman visited South Africa in May to prepare for Blinken’s visit and resumption of the strategic dialogue. She specifically downplayed any differences between the two governments over <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2022-05-04-us-and-sa-agree-on-negotiated-peace-says-visiting-us-deputy-secretary-of-state/">the war in Ukraine</a>. </p>
<p>The US and South Africa had hoped to hold the dialogue in the first quarter of this year. The invasion of Ukraine temporarily derailed planning on the US side, according to officials with whom I have spoken. One hopes that next week’s high-level discussions can also mitigate persistent tensions that may exist between the two countries. The talks may also help ensure that Africa does not become the victim of a new <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2022/05/19/africa-and-the-new-cold-war-africas-development-depends-on-regional-ownership-of-its-security/">Cold War</a> in the wake of the war in Ukraine. </p>
<p>South Africa has resisted taking sides in the dangerous and costly <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/govt-urges-south-africans-not-to-pick-sides-in-russias-bloody-invasion-of-ukraine-20220315">war in Ukraine</a>. Likewise, it has consistently resisted being drawn into taking sides on the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2021-06-17-ramaphosa-demonstrates-shrewd-statesmanship-as-he-performs-a-delicate-g7-balancing-act/">China-US global competition for influence</a>. </p>
<p>And when Biden invited 16 African leaders to his virtual <a href="https://www.state.gov/summit-for-democracy/">“Summit for Democracy”</a> in December 2021, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa was <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-12-10-ramaphosa-gives-us-presidents-democracy-summit-the-cold-shoulder/">the only one to decline</a>. </p>
<p>On the US side, the House of Representatives recently passed by a large bi-partisan majority, <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57995#:%7E:text=Summary-,H.R.,undermine%20democratic%20institutions%20in%20Africa">“The Malign Russian Activities in Africa Act”</a>. It’s aimed at </p>
<blockquote>
<p>countering Russian efforts to undermine democratic institutions in Africa.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I was told by South African officials that they will appeal to the Biden administration to kill this initiative in step with other African governments. Minister Pandor recently <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2022-08-02-south-africas-engagements-with-the-world-are-informed-by-our-national-interest">publicly described the bill</a> as </p>
<blockquote>
<p>intended to punish countries in Africa that have not toed the line on the Russia-Ukraine war.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Perhaps in their meetings Blinken, Pandor and their advisers could ensure there are no misunderstandings about the nature and intent of the act. They also need to ensure that any remaining differences will not negatively affect progress on any of the agreed priorities in their strategic dialogue. </p>
<h2>Resetting US-SA relations</h2>
<p>The process to reset US-SA relations should begin with a few home truths. Prominent Americans have described their nation as <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/is-america-still-the-shining-city-on-a-hill/617474/">“The Shining City on a Hill”</a> or the world’s <a href="http://siba-ese.unisalento.it/index.php/idps/article/view/22430">“sole super-power”</a>. This seems to many other nations, especially in South Africa with a similar history of racial oppression, as arrogant and ignorant of the US’s own history.</p>
<p>But there are large numbers of progressive Americans willing to listen and learn from others. They are eager for a reset of relations with South Africa. To cite one pertinent example: in the influential journal <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/">Foreign Affairs</a>, scholar-diplomat Reuben Brigety II argues that Americans should begin by heeding their own advice to other countries and upgrade their own democracy.</p>
<p>He was recently confirmed to become America’s <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/africa/news/new-us-ambassador-to-sa-pledges-to-promote-ubuntu-diplomacy-20220723">next ambassador to South Africa</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John J Stremlau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The meetings between Blinken and his South African counterpart Naledi Pandor could help iron out misunderstandings about the intent of the US targeting Russian ‘malign’ activities in Africa.John J Stremlau, Honorary Professor of International Relations, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1878162022-07-27T18:31:12Z2022-07-27T18:31:12ZHow do grand juries work? Their major role in criminal justice, and why prosecutors are using them to investigate efforts to overturn the 2020 election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476340/original/file-20220727-25-kj5r0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C30%2C5116%2C3647&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Marc Short, former Vice President Mike Pence's chief of staff, testified in late July before a federal grand jury investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CapitolRiotPenceAide/aa1d4f3823a14054abbd910df622ebd9/photo?Query=grand%20jury&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=5118&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Grand juries play a major role in the U.S. criminal justice system. And they’re very much in the news these days.</p>
<p><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/georgia-governor-testimony-fulton-county-election-probe-report/story?id=87425868">A grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia</a>, is looking into former President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results in that state. Among the latest witnesses to give testimony to the grand jury was Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp.</p>
<p>In Washington, D.C., the U.S. Justice Department is in the middle of an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/07/26/trump-justice-investigation-january-6/">investigation into efforts to overturn the 2020 election</a>, and it is questioning witnesses before a grand jury as well. Most recently, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-questions-top-pence-aides-over-trump-bid-to-overturn-election-11658783628">two top aides to former Vice President Mike Pence were questioned</a> in that probe. </p>
<p>A grand jury does not mean that the investigation will lead to any formal criminal charges, which are known as indictments. There was a grand jury that issued subpoenas during the investigation into <a href="http://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-fbi-court-filing-reveals-grand-jury-targeted-hillary-clinton/">Hillary Clinton’s email server</a>, for example, but no one was charged with any crimes. </p>
<p>In order to understand grand juries and their work, I offer the following explanation of how federal and state grand juries are used in the U.S.</p>
<h2>Legal basis: Federal and state</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://constitution.findlaw.com/amendment5.html">Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution</a> provides the legal basis for grand juries. In federal criminal cases, federal grand juries are made up of 16 to 23 members. They decide whether to indict someone who is being investigated, and at least 12 grand jurors need to agree to issue an indictment. </p>
<p>In addition to considering whether individuals may have committed a crime, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/jm/jm-9-11000-grand-jury">a grand jury can also be used by a prosecutor as an investigative tool</a> to compel witnesses to testify or turn over documents. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/special-counsel-mueller-using-grand-jury-in-federal-court-in-washington-as-part-of-russia-investigation/2017/08/03/1585da56-7887-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html?utm_term=.0041dedbde14">Reports</a> indicate that Special Counsel Robert Mueller used a grand jury for the latter when he investigated whether there was collusion between former President Donald Trump’s election campaign and Russia to influence the 2016 election.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bearded man in judge's robes sitting at a large desk, with the state seal of Georgia on the wall behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney instructs potential jurors during proceedings to seat a special purpose grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia, May 2, 2022, to look into attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/GeorgiaElectionInvestigation/bd5b51f1f655406fa6b62ebfd189e0e9/photo?Query=grand%20jury&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=5118&currentItemNo=7">AP Photo/Ben Gray</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Makeup of a grand jury</h2>
<p>Grand jurors are usually chosen from the same jury pool as trial jurors. For a <a href="https://www.flmd.uscourts.gov/sites/flmd/files/documents/handbook-for-federal-grand-jurors.pdf">federal grand jury</a>, all U.S. citizens over the age of 18 living in the federal district court’s geographic jurisdiction are in the pool. </p>
<p>Court clerks first identify members of the grand jury pool from public records, including records of licensed drivers and registered voters.</p>
<p>Next, prospective grand jurors are screened, usually through questionnaires. </p>
<p>To be a member of a federal grand jury, a person has to be adequately proficient in English, have no disqualifying mental or physical condition, not be currently subject to felony charges punishable by imprisonment for more than one year and never have been convicted of a felony (unless civil rights have been legally restored). The court then randomly chooses candidates for the grand jury from this pool.</p>
<h2>Work of the grand jury</h2>
<p>In all felony cases, there must be a “probable cause determination” that a crime has been committed in order for a case to move forward to a trial or a plea. “Probable cause” means that there must be some evidence of each element of the offense. </p>
<p>In the federal system, a grand jury is the body that makes the probable cause determination. In many states, like Missouri, the probable cause determination can be made either by a <a href="https://ago.mo.gov/docs/default-source/publications/courtprocess.pdf?sfvrsn=4">grand jury or at a preliminary hearing</a> before a judge. </p>
<p>When there is an option for either a grand jury or preliminary hearing to determine probable cause, the prosecutor decides which one to use. For example, in the shooting death of Michael Brown by police officer Darren Wilson in 2014, the St. Louis County prosecuting attorney brought the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-grand-jury-in-the-darren-wilson-case-and-beyond-34857">evidence to a grand jury</a> rather than choosing to present evidence to a judge through a preliminary hearing. In serious cases like murder, most prosecutors use the grand jury because it is usually quicker than a preliminary hearing.</p>
<p>Most people whose cases go to the grand jury have already been arrested. These include all of the cases in which a person is arrested while committing a crime or shortly after the crime has been committed.</p>
<p>In some cases, like Mueller’s Russia investigation, prosecutors do not have all the evidence they need to make a good case. In these investigations, a grand jury is used to help with the investigation. Once the grand jury is impaneled, the prosecutor has the ability to subpoena records and witnesses. </p>
<p>Subpoena power means the prosecutor can compel witnesses to turn over documents and to testify. If the prosecutor obtains sufficient evidence of a crime, the same grand jury has the power to indict whomever it believes has committed a crime.</p>
<p><a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/secrecy/R45456.pdf">The work of a grand jury is required by law to be done in secret</a>, so the public has no right to know who is subpoenaed or what documents the grand jury is reviewing. Even though the grand jury work is secret, federal rules and a majority of states permit grand jury witnesses to discuss what occurred when they testified. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Clinton in videotaped grand jury testimony Aug. 17, 1998.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/APTV</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In some high-profile cases, witnesses subpoenaed to appear before the grand jury will talk to the press if they think it will be helpful to them. For example, when former President Bill Clinton testified before a grand jury during the investigation into Whitewater real estate investment and the affair with Monica Lewinsky, <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/clinton-testifies-before-grand-jury">he went on national television</a> and announced that he had testified.</p>
<h2>Potential dangers</h2>
<p>The secrecy of a grand jury presents some dangers. The defendant does not know the evidence being considered, does not have a right to be present, and cannot question the evidence early in the criminal justice process. </p>
<p>As a result of the secrecy, the grand jury can also end up being a tool of the prosecution, and the prosecutor can choose to withhold evidence that is favorable to the accused. That is why a former chief judge of the New York Court of Appeals, the highest court in New York, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1985/02/18/opinion/do-we-need-grand-juries.html">famously said</a> that a prosecutor could get a grand jury “to indict a ham sandwich.” </p>
<p>These types of dangers are always present during any grand jury, and getting a grand jury to issue an indictment may be easy. But in high-profile cases, like the Russia connection to the Trump presidency and possibly the current investigation into Trump’s efforts to overturn the election results in Georgia, proving wrongdoing beyond a reasonable doubt through a trial or a negotiated guilty plea usually proves much more difficult. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-grand-jurys-role-in-american-criminal-justice-explained-82197">a story originally published</a> on Aug. 7, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187816/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter A. Joy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Grand juries are meeting in Georgia and Washington, D.C., as part of investigations into attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. How do they work?Peter A. Joy, Henry Hitchcock Professor of Law, School of Law, Washington University in St LouisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1846232022-07-05T12:15:55Z2022-07-05T12:15:55ZBuying into conspiracy theories can be exciting – that’s what makes them dangerous<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471454/original/file-20220628-14476-p4rpam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C22%2C5007%2C3330&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A protester holds a Q sign as he waits to enter a campaign rally with then-President Donald Trump in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., in August 2018.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/QAnonEventVegas/a4e2c53c530b45b8b3a6b1bce25ba084/photo?Query=qanon&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=107&currentItemNo=31">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Conspiracy theories have been around for centuries, from <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-witches-are-women-because-witch-hunts-were-all-about-persecuting-the-powerless-125427">witch trials</a> and antisemitic campaigns to <a href="https://archive.org/details/proofsofconspira00r">beliefs that Freemasons were trying to topple European monarchies</a>. In the mid-20th century, historian <a href="http://c250.columbia.edu/c250_celebrates/remarkable_columbians/richard_hofstadter.html">Richard Hofstadter</a> described a “<a href="https://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/">paranoid style</a>” that he observed in right-wing U.S. politics and culture: a blend of “heated exaggeration, suspiciousness, and conspiratorial fantasy.”</p>
<p>But the “golden age” of conspiracy theories, it seems, is now. On June 24, 2022, the unknown leader of the QAnon conspiracy theory <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/25/technology/qanon-leader-returns.html">posted online</a> for the first time in over a year. QAnon’s enthusiasts tend to be ardent supporters of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-a-conspiracy-candidate-65514">Donald Trump</a>, who made conspiracy theories <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98158-1">a signature feature of his political brand</a>, from Pizzagate and QAnon to “Stop the Steal” and <a href="https://theconversation.com/birtherism-trump-and-anti-black-racism-conspiracy-theorists-twist-evidence-to-maintain-status-quo-174444">the racist “birther” movement</a>. Key themes in conspiracy theories – like a sinister network of “pedophiles” and “groomers,” shadowy “bankers” and “globalists” – have <a href="https://theconversation.com/qanon-hasnt-gone-away-its-alive-and-kicking-in-states-across-the-country-154788">moved into the mainstream</a> of right-wing talking points.</p>
<p>Much of the commentary on conspiracy theories presumes that followers simply have bad information, <a href="https://www.wired.com/video/watch/why-you-can-never-argue-with-conspiracy-theorists">or not enough</a>, and that they can be helped along with a better diet of facts.</p>
<p>But anyone who talks to conspiracy theorists knows that they’re never short on details, or at least “<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-no-such-thing-as-alternative-facts-5-ways-to-spot-misinformation-and-stop-sharing-it-online-152894">alternative facts</a>.” They have plenty of information, but they insist that it be interpreted in a particular way – the way that feels most exciting. </p>
<p><a href="https://rels.sas.upenn.edu/people/donovan-schaefer">My research</a> focuses on how emotion <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/religious-affects">drives human experience</a>, including strong beliefs. In <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/wild-experiment">my latest book</a>, I argue that confronting conspiracy theories requires understanding the feelings that make them so appealing – and the way those feelings shape what seems reasonable to devotees. If we want to understand why people believe what they believe, we need to look not just at the content of their thoughts, but how that information feels to them. Just as the “X-Files” predicted, conspiracy theories’ acolytes “want to believe.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blue and green poster shows a UFO above a forest and the words 'I want to believe.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Our desire to feel a certain way can drive our beliefs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/i-want-to-believe-with-background-for-world-royalty-free-illustration/983343934?adppopup=true">Olexandr Nitsevych/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Thinking and feeling</h2>
<p>Over 100 years ago, the American psychologist <a href="https://psychology.fas.harvard.edu/people/william-james">William James</a> <a href="https://www.uky.edu/%7Eeushe2/Pajares/JamesSentimentOfRationality">noted</a>: “The transition from a state of perplexity to one of resolve is full of lively pleasure and relief.” In other words, confusion doesn’t feel good, but certainty certainly does.</p>
<p>He was deeply interested in an issue that is urgent today: how information feels, and why thinking about the world in a particular way might be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/bjop.12522">exciting or exhilarating</a> – so much so that it becomes <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20211001-i-feel-like-i-ve-lost-him-families-torn-apart-by-conspiracy-theories">difficult to see the world in any other way</a>.</p>
<p>James called this the “<a href="https://www.uky.edu/%7Eeushe2/Pajares/JamesSentimentOfRationality">sentiment of rationality</a>”: the feelings that go along with thinking. People often talk about thinking and feeling as though they’re separate, but James realized that they’re inextricably related.</p>
<p>For instance, he believed that the best science was driven forward by the excitement of discovery – which he said was “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2246769?seq=1">caviar</a>” for scientists – but also anxiety about getting things wrong.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black and white photograph shows two men posed next to each other in suits." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Psychologist William James, right, next to his brother, the famous novelist Henry James.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/henry-james-novelist-and-his-brother-psychologist-william-news-photo/514865914?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Bettmann via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The allure of the 2%</h2>
<p>So how does conspiracy theory feel? First of all, it lets you feel like you’re smarter than everyone. Political scientist <a href="https://www.maxwell.syr.edu/directory/michael-barkun">Michael Barkun</a> points out that conspiracy theory devotees love what he calls “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520276826/a-culture-of-conspiracy">stigmatized knowledge</a>,” sources that are obscure or even looked down upon.</p>
<p>In fact, the more obscure the source is, the more true believers want to trust it. This is the stock in trade of popular podcast “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/21/1074442185/joe-rogan-doctor-covid-podcast-spotify-misinformation">The Joe Rogan Experience</a>” – “scientists” who present themselves as the lone voice in the wilderness and are somehow seen as more credible because they’ve been repudiated by their colleagues. Ninety-eight percent of scientists may agree on something, but the conspiracy mindset imagines the other 2% are really on to something. This allows conspiracists to see themselves as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3790">critical thinkers</a>” who have separated themselves from the pack, rather than outliers who have fallen for a snake oil pitch.</p>
<p>One of the most exciting parts of a conspiracy theory is that it makes everything make sense. We all know the pleasure of solving a puzzle: the “click” of satisfaction when you complete a Wordle, crossword or sudoku. But of course, the whole point of games is that they simplify things. Detective shows are the same: All the clues are right there on the screen. </p>
<h2>Powerful appeal</h2>
<p>But what if the whole world were like that? In essence, that’s the illusion of conspiracy theory. All the answers are there, and everything fits with everything else. The big players are sinister and devious – but not as smart as you.</p>
<p>QAnon works like <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/qanon-game-plays-believers/2021/05/10/31d8ea46-928b-11eb-a74e-1f4cf89fd948_story.html">a massive live-action video game</a> in which a showrunner teases viewers with tantalizing clues. Followers make every detail into something profoundly significant. </p>
<p>When Donald Trump <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-trump-quotes-fact/factbox-selected-quotes-as-u-s-president-trump-tests-positive-for-covid-19-idUSKBN26N0QJ">announced his COVID-19 diagnosis</a>, for instance, he tweeted, “We will get through this TOGETHER.” QAnon followers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/03/trump-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-qanon">saw this as a signal</a> that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/opinion/qanon-hillary-clinton.html">their long-sought endgame</a> – Hillary Clinton arrested and convicted of unspeakable crimes – was finally in play. They thought the capitalized word “TOGETHER” was code for “TO GET HER,” and that Trump was saying that his diagnosis was a feint in order to beat the “deep state.” For devotees, it was a perfectly crafted puzzle with a neatly thrilling solution.</p>
<p>It’s important to remember that conspiracy theory very often <a href="https://theconversation.com/conspiracy-theories-fuel-prejudice-towards-minority-groups-113508">goes hand in hand</a> with racism – <a href="https://forward.com/culture/502541/four-reasons-why-a-racist-and-antisemitic-theory-has-become-so-popular-and-why-we-need-to-stop-it/">anti-Black racism</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/18/great-replacement-the-conspiracy-theory-stoking-racist-violence">anti-immigrant racism</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-antisemitic-conspiracy-theories-contributed-to-the-recent-hostage-taking-at-the-texas-synagogue-175229">antisemitism</a> and <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/trump-resurrects-conspiracy-theories-about-huma-abedin/story-AQPr91YlOXfeHWsTt4AMLK.html">Islamophobia</a>. People who craft conspiracies – or are willing to exploit them – know how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0048721X.2020.1810817">emotionally powerful</a> these racist beliefs are.</p>
<p>It’s also key to avoid saying that conspiracy theories are “simply” irrational or emotional. What James realized is that all thinking is related to feeling – whether we’re learning about the world in useful ways or whether we’re being led astray by our own biases. As cultural theorist <a href="https://news.uchicago.edu/story/lauren-berlant-preeminent-literary-scholar-and-cultural-theorist-1957-2021">Lauren Berlant</a> <a href="https://thenewinquiry.com/trump-or-political-emotions/">wrote in 2016</a>, “All the messages are emotional,” no matter which political party they come from.</p>
<p>Conspiracy theories encourage their followers to see themselves as the only ones with their eyes open, and everyone else as “sheeple.” But paradoxically, this fantasy leads to self-delusion – and helping followers recognize that can be a first step. Unraveling their beliefs requires the patient work of persuading devotees that the world is just a more boring, more random, less interesting place than one might have hoped.</p>
<p>Part of why conspiracy theories have such a strong hold is that they have flashes of truth: There really are elites who hold themselves above the law; there really is exploitation, violence and inequality. But the best way to unmask abuses of power isn’t to take shortcuts – a critical point in “<a href="https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ConspiracyTheoryHandbook.pdf">Conspiracy Theory Handbook</a>,” a guide to combating them that was written by <a href="https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/conspiracy-theory-handbook/">experts on climate change denial</a>.</p>
<p>To make progress, we have to patiently prove what’s happening – to research, learn and find the most plausible interpretation of the evidence, not the one that’s most fun.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184623/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donovan Schaefer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Overcoming conspiracy theories isn’t just about information. A scholar of religion explains that the emotions they inspire are part of their appeal.Donovan Schaefer, Assistant Professor of Religious Studies, University of PennsylvaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1802022022-03-30T14:47:38Z2022-03-30T14:47:38ZHow Russia’s unanswered propaganda led to the war in Ukraine<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455022/original/file-20220329-17-qjcayi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C20%2C6720%2C3812&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A few visitors and staff at a Moscow bar watch the broadcast of Russian President Vladimir Putin addressing Russian citizens on a state television channel in March 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP Photo)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A lot has been written about <a href="https://www.state.gov/russias-top-five-persistent-disinformation-narratives/">Russia’s disinformation campaigns and efforts to spread fake news</a>, which flooded western countries in the past decade and had different effects around the globe.</p>
<p>But many failed to see, or perhaps ignored, what all of this meticulously planned propaganda might lead to.</p>
<p>The world was shocked by Russia’s attempts to get its favoured candidate elected in the <a href="https://www.justice.gov/archives/sco/file/1373816/download">2016 United States presidential election</a> by unleashing all of its propaganda forces. Its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2020.1718257">troll factory</a>, operated out of St. Petersburg, worked 24/7 spreading fake news on social media. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man sits in front of a microphone with a screen behind him that says Russia interfered in the U.S. presidential election." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455060/original/file-20220329-23-1oh4qqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455060/original/file-20220329-23-1oh4qqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455060/original/file-20220329-23-1oh4qqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455060/original/file-20220329-23-1oh4qqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455060/original/file-20220329-23-1oh4qqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455060/original/file-20220329-23-1oh4qqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455060/original/file-20220329-23-1oh4qqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former special counsel Robert Mueller listens as he testifies before a congressional committee on his report on Russian election interference on Capitol Hill in July 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Jonathan Ernst/Pool via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Russia’s hacker groups targeted the <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3766950-NSA-Report-on-Russia-Spearphishing">U.S. election system</a> and other infrastructure. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/how-the-russians-hacked-the-dnc-and-passed-its-emails-to-wikileaks/2018/07/13/af19a828-86c3-11e8-8553-a3ce89036c78_story.html">Democratic National Committee documents were leaked, some distorted</a> to enhance the alternative facts that Russia was promoting.</p>
<p><a href="https://intelligence.house.gov/russiainvestigation/">These efforts</a> helped Donald Trump become president while Hillary Clinton, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153">whom Vladimir Putin openly disliked</a>, lost the campaign. </p>
<h2>Exploiting turmoil</h2>
<p>In other countries where it was not feasible to get its favoured candidate elected, Russia exploited <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/21/world/europe/uk-russia-report-brexit-interference.html">existing political turmoil or created new chaos and social problems</a> to diminish democratic development. </p>
<p>In Europe, where many countries rely on Russia’s energy resources, Russia conducted aggressive information campaigns that in many cases even <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EXPO_STU(2018)603868">increased European dependency on its gas supplies</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/68455">Nordstream-2 pipeline</a> is the most notorious example: it was contracted at the same time Russia occupied Ukraine’s Crimea and parts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, effectively launching a war in those areas of Ukraine. </p>
<p>The signs that Russia’s atrocities would escalate have always been here. Russian propaganda has expanded its capabilities for years, <a href="https://www.accessnow.org/digital-rights-ukraine-russia-conflict/">laying the groundwork</a> for the massive invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. </p>
<p>Russia has also worked to discredit the image of Ukraine among its western partners. Special vocabulary was even promoted to portray Ukraine negatively. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TxPXqOszVuk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A round-table discussion on the use of language to minimize Russia’s actions in Ukraine, hosted by Petro Jacyk Education Foundation, St. Thomas More College and the Prairie Centre for the Study of Ukrainian Heritage.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The war in the Donbas was referred to by many experts as the Ukrainian “crisis,” distracting attention from the real problem — Russia’s occupation of those territories. Ukraine was also depicted as a <a href="https://euvsdisinfo.eu/report/ukraine-became-a-poor-corrupt-failed-state-controlled-by-the-west">failed state</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that the country has been at war for eight years has been often diminished or even ignored as the war was presented as an <a href="https://www.e-ir.info/2020/11/27/russian-military-aggression-or-civil-war-in-ukraine/">internal problem</a>. </p>
<h2>Priming for war</h2>
<p>Russia’s propaganda has a number of different strategic dimensions and targeted consumers. Within Ukraine, it tries to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/4/11/ukraine-russian-propaganda-and-three-disaster-scenarios/">sow divisive narratives</a> and promote misleading interpretations and causes.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455049/original/file-20220329-21-2lj5ch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a woman with dark hair holds up a smartphone" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455049/original/file-20220329-21-2lj5ch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455049/original/file-20220329-21-2lj5ch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455049/original/file-20220329-21-2lj5ch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455049/original/file-20220329-21-2lj5ch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455049/original/file-20220329-21-2lj5ch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455049/original/file-20220329-21-2lj5ch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455049/original/file-20220329-21-2lj5ch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this 2017 photo, Ukrainian television journalist Julia Kirienko holds up her smartphone to show a text message reading ‘Ukrainian soldiers, they’ll find your bodies when the snow melts’ in Kyiv, Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Raphael Satter)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One of the decisions for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia was a belief that its propaganda had succeeded in building a base of supporters in Ukraine. Nonetheless, Russian troops <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/28/stop-overestimating-russian-military-and-underestimating-ukrainians-one-month-war/">aren’t welcome in Ukraine and have faced fearless resistance from ordinary citizens in every corner of the country</a>.</p>
<p>A massive propaganda campaign has also been <a href="https://imrussia.org/en/analysis/3410-how-kremlin-propaganda-distorts-reality-inside-russia">conducted within Russia</a>, fuelled by unprecedented resources and substantial amounts of content produced for internal consumption. For the past several years, Russian citizens <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russian-government-propaganda-stokes-anti-west-sentiment-1.2944274">have been deliberately inundated</a> with information that was propagating the inevitability of war with NATO and Ukraine. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-putin-used-propaganda-to-deftly-turn-russians-against-ukrainians-81376">How Putin used propaganda to deftly turn Russians against Ukrainians</a>
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<p>Both NATO and Ukraine have been depicted as aggressive foes that want to destroy Russia. On the other hand, Russia positioned itself as the last bastion and defender of the true pure values of Orthodoxy and the <a href="https://uacrisis.org/en/russkiy-mir-as-the-kremlin-s-quasi-ideology">Russkiy mir</a> (Russian world), which are threatened by the corrupt liberal West.</p>
<p>For years, demonizing the enemy was the primary goal of <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442253629/Putins-Propaganda-Machine-Soft-Power-and-Russian-Foreign-Policy">Russia’s propaganda</a> machine, which was working non-stop to this end. </p>
<p>State-owned television channels and outlets have devoted substantial airtime, online and newspaper coverage every day to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/world/asia/russia-putin-propaganda-media.html">vilifying Ukraine, the U.S., the EU and NATO</a>. Ukraine has been the main topic of all talk shows and news. </p>
<h2>Radicalizing Russians on Ukraine</h2>
<p>All the justifications that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/full-transcript-vladimir-putin-s-televised-address-to-russia-on-ukraine-feb-24">Putin outlined in his notorious early-morning speech</a> on Feb. 24, 2022 — proclaiming a war against Ukraine <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/2/do-not-call-ukraine-invasion-a-war-russia-tells-media-schools">that in Russia may only be referred to as a “special military operation”</a> — were intensively discussed in a confrontational manner <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/03/how-russian-tv-portrays-war-ukraine/627010/">by hosts and guests of prime-time TV shows.</a></p>
<p>This is how Russia deliberately radicalized Russian society on the question of Ukraine and Ukrainians.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man and woman sit in a dark room watching a balding man on a television set." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455058/original/file-20220329-17-qxokes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455058/original/file-20220329-17-qxokes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455058/original/file-20220329-17-qxokes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455058/original/file-20220329-17-qxokes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455058/original/file-20220329-17-qxokes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455058/original/file-20220329-17-qxokes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455058/original/file-20220329-17-qxokes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People from Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine occupied by Russia watch Vladimir Putin’s address at their temporary residence in Rostov-on-Don region, Russia, on Feb. 21, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Denis Kaminev)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Russian propaganda also trumpeted the superiority of its conventional army over any army in the world, including its nuclear capabilities. Threats to turn the U.S. and its allies in Europe into <a href="https://www.svoboda.org/a/v-radioaktivnyy-pepel-chem-i-kogda-zakonchitsya-novaya-holodnaya-voyna/31386334.html">radioactive ashes</a> have been made openly numerous times. Russia’s army even has its own <a href="https://www.stopfake.org/en/dependent-media-russia-s-military-tv-zvezda/">highly popular TV channel</a> that works 24/7 to promote war and aggression. </p>
<p>Russian propaganda has grown bolder and unanswered for years, leading to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine while serving to mislead and deceive Russians.</p>
<p>The democratic world now appears to have united and become more cohesive in its support of Ukrainians, strengthening Ukraine. Russia, meantime, is weakened. But the war could have been avoided altogether if the West had taken more decisive action much earlier.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>President of the Alberta Society for the Advancement of Ukrainian Studies</span></em></p>Russia’s propaganda signalled a full-scale invasion of Ukraine a long time ago.Oleksandr Pankieiev, Editor-in-Chief of the Forum for Ukrainian Studies, Contemporary Ukraine Studies Program, Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies, University of AlbertaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1688322021-10-25T12:32:31Z2021-10-25T12:32:31ZGirls learn early that they don’t have much of a place in politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426728/original/file-20211015-17-e1jkw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C2%2C681%2C429&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As they grow older, girls increasingly see political leadership as a “man’s world.”</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bos, Angie et al</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the United States, women express <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/18/are-women-less-interested-in-politics-than-men">less interest</a> in politics and <a href="https://womenrun.rutgers.edu/2020-report/">run for political office</a> at lower rates than men. These gaps threaten democracy because they distort representation: Women <a href="https://cawp.rutgers.edu/current-numbers">make up</a> 26.7% of members of Congress and 31% of state legislators, despite making up <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/SEX255219">50.8%</a> of the population.</p>
<p>Imbalances like this threaten <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Inequality_and_American_Democracy/8PIWAwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=gender+inequality+threat+democracy&pg=PA1&printsec=frontcover">core values</a> of representational democracy like fairness, inclusion and equality. They reduce the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1554477X.2016.1198206?casa_token=R7Eo2GIqFQ0AAAAA%3AjsByFQalhDNwanNyfLKhCeyiyk7Rsi3VpgE5B6l7cdgrI6mmDozdA14i_HrItq8rel7A623RuTe4">quality of policies</a> produced by political bodies. </p>
<p>Similarly, even though women make up the majority of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/college-university-fall-higher-education-men-women-enrollment-admissions-back-to-school-11630948233">college students</a>, they run for and win <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/on-college-campuses-a-gender-gap-in-student-government/2011/03/10/ABim1Bf_story.html">fewer student government positions</a>. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/pops.12268?casa_token=c1B6TYCgB9MAAAAA%3A8HVBG_gMTz0A_fMkwQQzvuTxvavp3eiLdyBNdz2hRAYAS8T-sSQd5o-TMJiVvH6vBjRoc5rIjDnt7IY">research</a> <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/pops.12573?casa_token=oiHjDGGHCVAAAAAA%3AC1bEX_If8ndfH2ASlX8FflhoJLQuM-GHesOJTICDix1WnCo152rt0O6WSsZe9BI_PHdygN_lDtKs2u8">team</a> has <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1554477X.2016.1219590">spent</a> a lot of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/21565503.2014.992792">time</a> <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/21565503.2015.1002668?journalCode=rpgi20">studying</a> these gaps, building on research that shows this lack of representation is associated with the fact that women are <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/research-frontier-essay-when-are-interests-interesting-the-problem-of-political-representation-of-women/281F0B77E3F11E150309A2F863598F7B">less interested</a> in politics and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-018-9498-9">less likely</a> to run for office than men. </p>
<p>Organizations like <a href="https://emergeamerica.org/">Emerge America</a> and <a href="https://cawp.rutgers.edu/education_training/ready_to_run/overview">Ready to Run</a> tackle this problem by training women to run for public office and <a href="https://emilyslist.org/">raising</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/viewpac?lang=en">money</a> for women candidates, even as <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/reports/2020-gender-race">fundraising</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/to-emerge-breadwinning-motherhood-and-womens-decisions-to-run-for-office/16CFA17A7101E03DEFB1363B9BA5080A">resource</a> gaps persist between men and women running for office.</p>
<p>We asked: What if these differences in political interest and ambition start at a much earlier age? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426727/original/file-20211015-18-7tavt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A child's drawing of Hillary Clinton, wearing a blue pantsuit and standing between two trees." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426727/original/file-20211015-18-7tavt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426727/original/file-20211015-18-7tavt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426727/original/file-20211015-18-7tavt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426727/original/file-20211015-18-7tavt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426727/original/file-20211015-18-7tavt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426727/original/file-20211015-18-7tavt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426727/original/file-20211015-18-7tavt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One third grade girl’s drawing of Hillary Clinton. ‘Hillery Clinton is picking apples for the city. Hillery Clinton is picking oranges for the city,’ the girl wrote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bos, Angie et al</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Drawings help tell story</h2>
<p>We set out to understand if gender gaps in interest appear as early as elementary school by surveying and interviewing more than 1,600 children, grades one through six. </p>
<p>Interviewing children about politics is a challenge. Many young children are not familiar with the political parties or terms like “Congress” or “Supreme Court.” So we developed a new tool: the Draw A Political Leader prompt. </p>
<p>Inspired by the “<a href="https://www.edutopia.org/article/50-years-children-drawing-scientists">Draw a Scientist</a>” task in research on gender gaps in STEM – science, technology, engineering and math – we asked kids to draw an image of a political leader. We asked our young respondents to tell us what the leaders in their pictures were doing and to describe the characteristics of the leader. </p>
<p>We also asked these children about their interest in politics and their interest in a variety of careers, including whether they would want to hold political office when they grew up. </p>
<p>We use these images and surveys to understand children’s process of learning both about politics and gender roles, or what scholars call “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/this-ones-for-the-boys-how-gendered-political-socialization-limits-girls-political-ambition-and-interest/FC49F85EDDAAA804DCBFBA63C6C437F0">gendered political socialization</a>.” </p>
<p>A third grade boy drew an image of Donald Trump. “He is saying a speech saying that we should lock up Hillry Clinton,” he wrote. We asked: What kinds of things do you think the leader does on a typical day? “Go on the news, go to cort.” What did he think of the leader: “A butthead.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427220/original/file-20211019-27-15i2bo0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Donald Trump giving a speech and saying " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427220/original/file-20211019-27-15i2bo0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427220/original/file-20211019-27-15i2bo0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427220/original/file-20211019-27-15i2bo0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427220/original/file-20211019-27-15i2bo0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427220/original/file-20211019-27-15i2bo0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427220/original/file-20211019-27-15i2bo0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427220/original/file-20211019-27-15i2bo0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump giving a speech.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bos, Angie et al</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A 7-year-old girl drew the mayor, who “is talking.” And what kinds of things does she think the leader does on a typical day? “Talk talk talk doesn’t do anything else.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427224/original/file-20211019-21-17gr5uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crude stick figure of a person standing next to a flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427224/original/file-20211019-21-17gr5uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427224/original/file-20211019-21-17gr5uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427224/original/file-20211019-21-17gr5uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427224/original/file-20211019-21-17gr5uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427224/original/file-20211019-21-17gr5uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427224/original/file-20211019-21-17gr5uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427224/original/file-20211019-21-17gr5uu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A mayor, drawn by a second grade girl. What does he do? ‘Talk talk talk.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bos, Angie et al</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A man’s world</h2>
<p>As elementary-aged children observe behavior and expectations for men and women in society, they come to understand that each gender typically occupies <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00289754">certain roles in society</a>, such as women working as <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0956797610377342?casa_token=rrsT9EmNeFAAAAAA%3AUovGzhbHPcKcr7ej4Y5dSpMciRPbEI4i0GGoiTuENEV8vVQl61Q9vZANQ6sT7hNUbCyRzIkRq-gu">teachers or men being firefighters</a>. </p>
<p>Kids also learn about politics during this time, with lessons that often focus on key events and leaders in U.S. history - and which focus almost exclusively on men. That these two processes – learning about gender and learning about politics – occur at the same time contributes to children’s understanding that the political world is dominated by men. </p>
<p><iframe id="9CE4m" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9CE4m/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Our research shows that with age, girls increasingly see political leadership as a “man’s world.” One way that we show this is by looking at the drawings that children did of what they think political leaders look like. </p>
<p>Three-quarters of boys draw a man when they draw a political leader, across ages. Girls, in comparison, increasingly see political leaders as men over the course of elementary school. Less than half of the youngest girls in our study – first and second graders – draw women leaders. By middle school, only about a quarter of girls draw women.</p>
<p>We also demonstrate that children’s exposure to politics and the likelihood of drawing a known political leader, such as Trump or Barack Obama, increase with age. </p>
<p>Together with the trends in gender and age in drawing political leaders, our study indicates that as young children learn about politics and political figures, they internalize the idea that politics is a man’s world. </p>
<p>One result of the mismatch between women’s roles and politics: Girls express lower levels of interest and ambition in politics than do boys. </p>
<p>As girls enter adolescence, when peers <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/pits.22309?casa_token=Lu_1qqj_RSoAAAAA:htGETj_bLdpg7mdkODZGxAKkLrrzPZeVCm-zF9DBBb-4PP3iQ7xd3P670lSiGjYgzozDSSm37hn4vpw">increase in influence</a> and fitting in becomes preferred over standing out, <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00402.x?casa_token=HMYdxcpr40YAAAAA%3A0_waxW_VB2vQZ84w1qRLWkg0yldst4R_Y0x-pBtajPOrXL9VHmIp1tOyQ48ltWyXGpnRCGY1UHo">they eschew politics</a>. As the continuing gaps in the numbers of women in office indicate, when girls turn away from politics, many do not turn back. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 115,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>What does this mean for politics? </p>
<p>The roots of gender inequality in politics reach far back to childhood. Those roots take hold as a result of many factors: how kids learn about both gender roles and politics through classroom activities, how their parents discuss political events, and how the media portrays politics. </p>
<p>Increasing the number of women who run for and hold elected positions depends on what parents, teachers and the media present as so-called “normal” for different genders.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors received funding for this research from the Pennsylvania Center for Women in Politics Elsie Hillman Prize </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angela L. Bos, J Celeste Lay, Jill S. Greenlee, and Zoe M. Oxley do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As young children learn about politics and political figures, they internalize the idea that politics is a man’s world, which ultimately means political representation is heavily skewed toward men.Mirya Holman, Associate Professor, Tulane UniversityAngela L. Bos, Associate Professor of Political Science and Associate Dean for Experiential Learning, The College of WoosterJ Celeste Lay, Associate Professor of Political Science, Tulane UniversityJill S. Greenlee, Associate Professor of Politics and Women's, Gender & Sexuality Studies, Brandeis UniversityZoe M. Oxley, Professor of Political Science, Union CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1508202021-02-26T13:27:19Z2021-02-26T13:27:19ZA less Trumpy version of Trumpism might be the future of the Republican Party<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385951/original/file-20210223-13-8mn2wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C2968%2C2047&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is Sen. Marco Rubio, espousing a polished populism, the future of the GOP?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-marco-rubio-speaks-before-the-arrival-of-u-s-president-news-photo/1283437043?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, but his populist ideas may continue to animate the Republican Party.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/one-nation-two-realities-9780190677176?cc=us&lang=en&">scholars of American beliefs and elections</a>, we can envision a less Trumpy version of Trumpism holding sway over the party in coming years. We call it “polished populism.”</p>
<p>Populism is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0002716216662639">folk-politics</a> based on the premise that ordinary citizens are wiser and more virtuous than supposedly corrupt and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/future-populism-2020s/604393/">self-serving elites</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jan/10/we-the-people-the-battle-to-define-populism">Populist rhetoric</a> is often expressed in cruder, coarser language than ordinary political speech – less like a politician on a stage and <a href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/the-conversation/sd-most-populist-lines-from-trumps-speech-20170120-htmlstory.html">more like a guy in a bar</a>. </p>
<p>Trump, a prime practitioner of populist rhetoric, took this to an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZRXESV3R74">extreme</a> with the shorthand of Twitter and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/insider/Trump-twitter-insults-list.html">insults</a> of the locker room.</p>
<p>Polished populists take a different approach, arguing for the <a href="https://www.amacad.org/news/populism-and-future-american-politics">same policies</a> that Trump did – <a href="https://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/3/27/15037232/trump-populist-appeal-culture-economy">limiting immigration</a>, redistributing wealth toward the <a href="https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2020/article/populism-puzzle">working class</a> rather than just the poor, opposing the woke policies of <a href="http://yris.yira.org/comments/2666">social justice movements</a>, promoting “America First” foreign and <a href="https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/populism_and_the_economics_of_globalization.pdf">trade policies</a> – but without his overtly antagonistic language. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/bulwark-never-trump-republicans-biden/617025/">Some Republicans</a> are now <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/05/the-never-trumpers-next-move/609064/">arguing for a rejection of populism and a return to traditional conservatism</a>. Those <a href="https://www.nhbr.com/traditional-republican-values/">long-standing GOP priorities</a> include limited government, strong national defense of American interests abroad, religious values and, perhaps most importantly, ordinary political personalities.</p>
<p>For two reasons – the GOP’s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-swing-states/">narrow electoral defeat in 2020</a> and the <a href="https://www.axios.com/republican-party-demographics-threat-trump-racism-1524a8a1-c2f1-4183-896f-107420e2d50a.html">changing demographics of the Republican Party</a> – we believe that populist policies, if not rhetoric, will continue to be a dominant theme of the Republican Party.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Trump at a massive rally just before the election." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Donald Trump smiles after speaking during an election rally on Nov. 3, 2020, in Grand Rapids, Mich.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-smiles-after-speaking-during-a-rally-news-photo/1229431380?adppopup=true">Kamil Krzaczynski/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Populism versus traditional conservatism</h2>
<p>The contemporary <a href="https://www.wpr.org/how-reagan-helped-usher-new-conservatism-american-politics">conservatism associated with Ronald Reagan</a> in the 1980s and <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/04/20020430.html">George W. Bush in the 2000s</a> has several facets and factions, but it can be summed up in the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/A-Citizens-Guide-to-American-Ideology-Conservatism-and-Liberalism-in-Contemporary/Marietta/p/book/9780415899000">phrase</a>, “You keep what you earn, it’s a dangerous world, and God is good.”</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.routledge.com/A-Citizens-Guide-to-American-Ideology-Conservatism-and-Liberalism-in-Contemporary/Marietta/p/book/9780415899000">economic, national defense and social conservatives</a> of previous decades tended to agree that human nature is untrustworthy and society is fragile, so the U.S. needs to defend against external enemies and internal decline. </p>
<p>Populist conservatism accepts those views but adds something different: the interests and perceptions of “ordinary” people against “elites.” <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-actually-is-populism-and-why-does-it-have-a-bad-reputation-109874">So populism</a> rejects the notion of a natural aristocracy of wealth and education, replacing it with the idea that people it considers elites, including career politicians, bureaucrats, journalists and academics, have been promoting their own interests at the expense of regular folk.</p>
<h2>The identity divide</h2>
<p>The recent rise of populism in America has been driven in part by a clear economic reality: <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality">The expansion of wealth over the last 40 years</a> has gone almost entirely to the upper reaches of society. At the same time, <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/">the middle has stagnated or declined economically</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/populism-erupts-when-people-feel-disconnected-and-disrespected-151423">populist interpretation</a> is that elites benefited from the globalization and technological advancements they encouraged, while the advantages of those trends bypassed ordinary working people. Calls for trade protections and national borders appeal to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1468-4446.12319">Americans who feel left behind</a>.</p>
<p>Populism also has a <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-political-divide-on-both-sides-of-atlantic-populists-v-cosmopolitans-59876">cultural aspect</a>: rejection of the perceived <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022103116305509">condescension</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/opinion/education-prejudice.html">smugness</a> of the “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-highly-educated-elites-are-stuck-in-a-nightmare-of-their-own-making/2020/11/13/bcde3c98-25d7-11eb-a688-5298ad5d580a_story.html">highly educated elite</a>.”</p>
<p>In that sense, populism is driven by identity (who someone believes they are like, and perhaps more importantly, who they are not like). For populists, the like-minded are ordinary folk – middle income, middle-brow educations at public high schools and state universities, often middle-of-the-country – and the dissimilar are the products of expensive educations and urban lifestyles.</p>
<p>While traditional conservatism <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/15/opinion/politics/never-trump-republican-party.html?">has not vanished from the GOP</a>, populist perceptions dominate the new <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/gop-rapidly-becoming-blue-collar-party-here-s-what-means-n1258468">working-class foundations</a> of the party. And those reflect the <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/527863-the-diploma-divide-in-american-politics">emerging divide in education</a>. </p>
<p>The base of the Republican Party has shifted from more wealthy and educated Americans to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2018/11/education-gap-explains-american-politics/575113/">voters without college degrees</a>. In the 1990s, whites who did not attend college tended to back Democrat Bill Clinton, but in 2016 they <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/">supported Republican Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton</a> by 39 percentage points. In 2020, it was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html">roughly the same</a> for Trump over Biden. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2002, President George W. Bush spoke about the ideals represented in his ‘compassionate conservatism’ to representatives from local community groups in Cleveland, Ohio.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-george-w-bush-delivers-a-speech-to-about-3-000-news-photo/51684553?adppopup=true">Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The 2020 outcome and the GOP future</h2>
<p>We believe the Republican Party will be slow to move away from this new identity.</p>
<p>Even after a pandemic, a recession, an impeachment, four years of anti-immigration sentiment and the Black Lives Matter protests, Trump still received <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-popular-vote-record-barack-obama-us-presidential-election-donald-trump/">more votes than any presidential candidate in history not named Joe Biden</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/04/politics/biden-popular-vote-margin-7-million/index.html">Biden’s overall victory was by a margin of 7 million votes</a>. But his victory in the Electoral College relied on a total of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/did-biden-win-little-or-lot-answer-yes-n1251845">45,000 votes in three states</a>. This was similar to Trump’s narrow 2016 Electoral College margin of 77,000 votes, also in three states. A strong Republican candidate, a foreign policy problem for the incumbent Democrat or a small piece of luck could shift the presidency back to the other party.</p>
<p>Support for Republicans even <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-increases-share-black-hispanic-vote-1544698">grew somewhat among traditionally Democratic African American and Hispanic voters</a>, despite the GOP’s anti-Black Lives Matter and anti-immigrant rhetoric. </p>
<p>Clearly, Trumpism was <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-the-2020-election/">not repudiated by voters in the way that Democrats had hoped</a>. It is entirely possible that if the pandemic had not occurred – which was a major source of the decline in his support – Donald Trump <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-covid-19-led-to-donald-trumps-defeat-150110">would still be in the White House</a>. </p>
<p>The GOP could conclude that its loss was only due to an outside event and not a fundamental rejection of policy. That would give the party little incentive to change course, aside from changing the face on the poster.</p>
<p>Over the next four years we believe the GOP will solidify the transition to a populist base, though not without resistance from traditional conservatives. </p>
<p>Republican victory in a future presidential election would likely require an alliance between traditional and populist conservatives, with both groups turning out to vote. The question is which one will lead the coalition. </p>
<p>The competition for the 2024 Republican nomination will likely also be a contest between these two party bases and ideologies, with the emerging winner defining the post-Trump GOP.</p>
<h2>The 2024 standard bearers</h2>
<p>The Republican contenders for the 2024 nomination and the new leadership of the GOP include a broad range of populists versus traditional conservatives. </p>
<p>Perhaps a leading indicator of the move toward polished populism is the shift in the rhetoric employed by <a href="https://twitter.com/marcorubio">Marco Rubio</a>. </p>
<p>The senator from Florida was once a traditional conservative, but has shifted toward populism after his trouncing by Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary. Recently he argued that “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/525585-rubio-gop-must-rebrand-as-party-of-multiethnic-multiracial-working-class-voters%20https:/thehill.com/homenews/news/525585-rubio-gop-must-rebrand-as-party-of-multiethnic-multiracial-working-class-voters">the future of the party is based on a multiethnic, multiracial, working-class coalition</a>,” defined as “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/525585-rubio-gop-must-rebrand-as-party-of-multiethnic-multiracial-working-class-voters">normal, everyday people who don’t want to live in a city where there is no police department, where people rampage through the streets every time they are upset about something</a>.”</p>
<p>The opposing trend toward rejecting Trumpist populism is exemplified by the shift in the <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2021/magazine-nikki-haleys-choice/">arguments made</a> by <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nikki-haley-americans-woke-left-biden-president">Nikki Haley</a>. Haley, the U.N. ambassador under the Trump administration and former South Carolina governor, has <a href="https://6abc.com/nikki-haley-trump-interview-politico-us-capitol-riots/10333025/">rejected Trump’s leadership</a>, now arguing that “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538573-haley-breaks-with-trump-we-shouldnt-have-followed-him">we shouldn’t have followed him</a>.”</p>
<p>These two Republicans and <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/531796-five-gop-contenders-other-than-trump-for-2024">several others</a> see a potential president in the mirror. Which one <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/531796-five-gop-contenders-other-than-trump-for-2024">mirrors the current GOP</a> will depend on the realignment or retrenchment between the populists and the traditionalists.</p>
<p>Polished populism – Trump’s policies without his personality – may be the future of the GOP’s identity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150820/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump’s ticket to the White House was a coarse version of populism. Will his successors in the GOP be different – or simply present a more polished version of his antagonistic rhetoric?Morgan Marietta, Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass LowellDavid C. Barker, Professor of Government and Director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1522172021-01-17T13:49:16Z2021-01-17T13:49:16ZAs Joe Biden becomes president, here’s an easy proposal for Electoral College reform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379065/original/file-20210115-21-49dtkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4982%2C3318&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President-elect Joe Biden speaks about the COVID-19 pandemic in Wilmington, Del., on Jan. 14, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s been a rocky ride, but a new U.S. president is about to be inaugurated.</p>
<p>Many are thrilled to be moving on from the Donald Trump era, especially <a href="https://theconversation.com/by-inciting-capitol-mob-trump-pushes-u-s-closer-to-a-banana-republic-152850">after the raid on the U.S. Capitol by angry Trump supporters</a>. But before that happens, it might be worthwhile to reflect on one of the causes of anxiety during the 2020 presidential election campaign: The way votes are allocated in the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college">Electoral College</a>, which is essentially the process by which state electors determine who won the presidential election.</p>
<p>Predominantly liberal commentators argue every four years that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/bigideas/its-time-to-abolish-the-electoral-college/">it’s profoundly unfair that votes in sparsely inhabited states count for more than those in densely populated ones.</a></p>
<p>The debate tends to pit those who think the president should be chosen on the basis of the popular vote against those who argue that the Electoral College is necessary to balance the interests of small and large states. But what if there were a third way?</p>
<h2>Aimed at compromise</h2>
<p>As provided in the U.S. Constitution, the Electoral College serves the necessary purpose of compromising between the divergent interests of various kinds of states (urban versus rural, coastal versus interior, more or less populous). </p>
<p>The problem is not the Electoral College as such, but the “winner-takes-all” principle that most states use to apportion their electoral votes. Sound arguments can be made — <a href="https://www.constitutionfacts.com/us-constitution-amendments/the-constitutional-convention/#:%7E:text=The%20Constitutional%20Convention%20took%20place,delegates%20had%20much%20bigger%20plans.">and were made during the Constitutional Convention in 1787</a> — for why, in a federal system, it is fair for tiny Delaware to have a per capita greater impact in presidential elections than populous New York. It’s the same compromise that established equal representation of states in the Senate and their proportional representation based on population in the House of Representatives.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An oil painting of the Constitutional Convention." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379074/original/file-20210115-17-mwtbcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379074/original/file-20210115-17-mwtbcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379074/original/file-20210115-17-mwtbcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379074/original/file-20210115-17-mwtbcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379074/original/file-20210115-17-mwtbcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379074/original/file-20210115-17-mwtbcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379074/original/file-20210115-17-mwtbcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A painting depicting the Constitutional Convention of 1787.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Library of Congress)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What is clearly less fair is for a state to apportion all its electors to a candidate who may not have won even half that state’s popular vote. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/14/iowa-republicans-grassley-ernst-acknowledge-joe-biden-electoral-college-victory/6549680002/">I know for Iowans it’s disappointing</a>,” Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst said when she acknowledged Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory. But in truth, it was disappointing only for the 53 per cent of Iowans who voted for Trump. Nearly half the state’s population was relieved. </p>
<p>Wouldn’t it be fairer for states to split their votes to reflect the split in their voters’ opinions?</p>
<h2>Another way</h2>
<p>This is not a reference to <a href="https://www.270towin.com/content/split-electoral-votes-maine-and-nebraska/">the method Maine and Nebraska use</a> — to assign two electors, winner-takes-all, on the basis of the statewide popular vote and one elector based on the vote in each congressional district. Rather, why not eliminate winner-takes-all completely, and simply allocate each state’s electors proportionally to the popular vote in that state?</p>
<p>If this were nationwide practice, Biden would still have won in 2020, Barack Obama would still have won in 2008 and 2012, and George W. Bush would still have won in 2004. But things get more interesting in the two recent presidential elections in which the Electoral College victor did not win the popular vote. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379068/original/file-20210115-17-19mozja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bush and Gore in a townhall in October 2000." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379068/original/file-20210115-17-19mozja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379068/original/file-20210115-17-19mozja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379068/original/file-20210115-17-19mozja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379068/original/file-20210115-17-19mozja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379068/original/file-20210115-17-19mozja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379068/original/file-20210115-17-19mozja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379068/original/file-20210115-17-19mozja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bush and Gore in a Missouri townhall in October 2000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ron Edmonds)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/reflections-on-the-2000-u-s-presidential-election/">In 2000</a>, Florida would have split its votes 12-12 between Bush and Al Gore without any court needing to intervene, and assigned a 25th elector to Ralph Nader. Bush would have beaten Gore 263 to 262 in the Electoral College, with 13 electors for Nader. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.270towin.com/2016_Election/">In 2016</a>, Trump and Hillary Clinton would have been tied at 261 electors each, with 14 for Gary Johnson and one each for Evan McMullin and Jill Stein. </p>
<p>The U.S. Constitution of course provides for the event of a tie in the Electoral College. But if states allowed third-party electors to cast their votes for one of the two leading candidates, according the decision of those electors or their state party organizations, the 2000 and 2016 elections could have produced results more closely aligned with the national popular vote while still maintaining equity between small and large states.</p>
<h2>All states benefit</h2>
<p>The fairness would work both ways. Republicans in California and New York would get a voice, alongside Democrats in Iowa and Arkansas. Votes for third-party candidates would not necessarily be wasted, at least in states with enough electors for small percentages to matter. Most votes would count more, none would count less. </p>
<p>Occasionally, one elector more or less for a given candidate could still hinge on a small number of votes, making recounts necessary, but the stakes would be lower — a single elector, not an entire state’s slate.</p>
<p>Proposals to abolish the Electoral College are ultimately impractical. It’s simply not in the interest of enough states to ever vote for the necessary constitutional amendment. The <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/11/06/931891674/as-presidency-hinges-on-a-handful-of-states-some-have-made-a-popular-vote-pact">National Popular Vote Compact</a> — by which signatory states would assign all their electors to the winner of the national popular vote — faces the same impossible hurdle.</p>
<p>But who can argue against the principle that every vote should count?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152217/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Krapfl does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The debate about the U.S. Electoral College pits those who think the president should be chosen via popular vote versus those who believe the interests of small and large states must be balanced.James Krapfl, Associate Professor of History, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.