tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/hurricane-harvey-42406/articlesHurricane Harvey – The Conversation2023-02-07T13:34:48Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1964702023-02-07T13:34:48Z2023-02-07T13:34:48ZHurricane Harvey more than doubled the acidity of Texas’ Galveston Bay, threatening oyster reefs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507440/original/file-20230131-4643-5mjeyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C0%2C5400%2C3564&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Seabirds forage on an oyster shell island on the Texas Gulf Coast.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-american-oystercatcher-haematopus-palliatus-foraging-on-news-photo/1449679985">Jon G. Fuller/VW Pics/ Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most people associate hurricanes with high winds, intense rain and rapid flooding on land. But these storms can also change the chemistry of coastal waters. Such shifts are less visible than damage on land, but they can have dire consequences for marine life and coastal ocean ecosystems. </p>
<p>We are oceanographers who study the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=u7D6sQgAAAAJ&hl=en">effects of ocean acidification</a>, including on <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MOYxO9MAAAAJ&hl=en">organisms like oysters and corals</a>. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00608-1">recent study</a>, we examined how stormwater runoff from Hurricane Harvey in 2017 affected the water chemistry of Galveston Bay and the health of the bay’s oyster reefs. We wanted to understand how extreme rainfall and runoff from hurricanes influenced acidification of bay waters, and how long these changes could last. </p>
<p>Our findings were startling. Hurricane Harvey, which generated massive rainfall in the Houston metropolitan area, delivered a huge pulse of fresh water into Galveston Bay. As a result, the bay was two to four times more acidic than normal for at least three weeks after the storm.</p>
<p>This made bay water corrosive enough to damage oyster shells in the estuary. Because oyster growth and recovery rely on many factors, it is hard to tie specific changes to acidification. However, increased acidification certainly would have made it harder for oyster reefs damaged by Hurricane Harvey to recover. And while our study focused on Galveston Bay, we suspect that similar processes may be occurring in other coastal areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite photo of Houston and the gulf coast immediately after Harvey." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This satellite image, taken six days after Harvey made landfall, shows Galveston Bay and other rivers and bays around Houston filled with brown sediment-laden floodwaters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90866/texas-waters-run-brown-after-harvey">NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vast quantities of water</h2>
<p>Scientists predict that climate change will make hurricanes stronger and <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3184/a-force-of-nature-hurricanes-in-a-changing-climate/">increase the amount of rain they produce</a> over the next several decades. Changes in ocean chemistry, caused by runoff from these storms, are becoming an increasing threat to many marine ecosystems, especially coastal reefs built by oysters and corals. </p>
<p><a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/estuary.html">Coastal estuaries</a> like Galveston Bay, where rivers meet the sea, are some of the most productive ecosystems in the world. Galveston Bay is the largest bay on the Texas coast and one of the largest in the U.S.; it covers about 600 square miles, roughly half the size of Rhode Island. Its extensive oyster reefs provide <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145132">about 9% of the national oyster harvest</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/reviewing-hurricane-harveys-catastrophic-rain-and-flooding">Hurricane Harvey</a>, the wettest tropical cyclone in U.S. history, made landfall on the Texas coast as a Category 4 hurricane on Aug. 26, 2017. Harvey stalled at the coast for four days, sitting over both land and ocean. </p>
<p>Maintaining contact with warm Gulf of Mexico waters fueled the storm with both energy and rainfall, allowing it to persist and drop extreme amounts of rain directly onto Houston and surrounding areas – <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-made-the-rain-in-hurricane-harvey-so-extreme-83137">up to 50 inches in four days</a>. All of that rain and floodwater had to go somewhere, and much of it flowed into Galveston Bay. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YzQGgyrxXiI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">These videos show the scale of flooding across Houston from Hurricane Harvey.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate change and ocean acidification</h2>
<p>The ocean acidification issues that we study are a <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-warmings-evil-twin-ocean-acidification-19017">well-known effect related to climate change</a>. Human activities, mainly burning fossil fuel, emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The ocean absorbs about one-third of these emissions, which alters ocean chemistry, making seawater more acidic. </p>
<p>Acidification can <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ocean-acidification/effects-ocean-and-coastal-acidification-marine-life">harm many forms of marine life</a>. It is especially dangerous for animals that build their shells and skeletons out of calcium carbonate, such as oysters and corals. As seawater becomes more acidic, it makes these structures harder to build and easier to erode. </p>
<p>Oysters fuse together as they grow, creating large rocklike underwater reefs that <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbFQ5EndLso">protect shorelines from wave erosion</a>. These reefs <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/habitat-conservation/oyster-reef-habitat">provide habitat</a> for other creatures, such as barnacles, anemones and mussels, which in turn serve as food sources for many fish species. </p>
<p>Rising atmospheric CO₂ levels are acidifying oceans worldwide. As our study shows, local events like tropical cyclones can add to global acidification. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"661924520496922624"}"></div></p>
<h2>Stormwater from Harvey caused extreme coastal acidification</h2>
<p>The main cause of the unprecedented acidification that occurred after Hurricane Harvey was the excessive amount of rainfall and runoff that entered Galveston Bay. To help manage large-scale flooding in the Houston area, the city released large volumes of water from reservoirs for more than two months after Harvey. These releases extended the time during which stormwater entered Galveston Bay and increased its acidity. </p>
<p>Scientists use the pH scale to measure how acidic or basic (alkaline) water is. A pH value of 7 is neutral; higher values are basic, and lower values are acidic. The pH scale is logarithmic, so a decrease of one full unit – say, from 8 to 7 – represents a tenfold increase in acidity. </p>
<p>Rainwater is more acidic than either river water or seawater, which pick up minerals from soil that are slightly basic and can balance out absorbed carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Rainwater’s pH is around 5.6, compared with <a href="https://datastream.org/en/guide/ph">between 6.5 and 8.2 for rivers</a> and <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts/ocean-acidification">about 8.1 for seawater</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Th pH scale with values for common substances." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The pH scale shows how acidic or basic substances are.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.epa.gov/acidrain/what-acid-rain">USEPA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Galveston Bay contains a mix of fresh water from rivers and salty seawater from the Gulf of Mexico – oysters’ preferred habitat. We collected water samples in the bay two weeks after Harvey and found that the bay was made up almost entirely of river water and rainwater from the storm. </p>
<p>Since rainwater, river water and seawater all have different chemistries, we were able to calculate that rainwater made up almost 50% of the water in the bay. This means that acidic rainwater from Harvey replaced the basic seawater within the bay after the storm. The average bay water pH had dropped from 8 to 7.6, a 2.5-fold increase in acidity. Some zones had pH even as low as 7.4 – four times more acidic than normal. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bar charts showing combinations of seawater, river water and rainwater in Galveston Bay before and after Hurricane Harvey." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These charts show how rainfall and runoff from Hurricane Harvey altered the composition of Galveston Bay after the storm made landfall on August 25, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00608-1">Tacey Hicks, modified from Hicks et al., 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This extreme acidification lasted for more than three weeks. Bay waters became corrosive not only to more sensitive larval and juvenile oyster shells, but to adult oyster shells as well. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20378">Scientists had predicted</a> that increasing CO₂ could cause this scale of coastal acidification but did not expect to see it until around the year 2100. </p>
<p>The fresh water from Harvey also caused a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145132">severe oyster die-off</a> in the bay because oysters need slightly salty water to survive. Harvey struck in the middle of oyster spawning season, and acidification may have slowed reef recovery by making it harder for young oysters to form new shells. Officials at the <a href="https://tpwd.texas.gov/">Texas Parks and Wildlife Department</a> have told us that four years later, in late 2021, some Galveston Bay oyster reefs still showed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00608-1">very low additions of new oysters</a>. </p>
<h2>Other coastal areas at risk</h2>
<p>Only a few studies, including ours, have analyzed how tropical cyclones affect coastal acidification. In our view, however, it is highly possible that other storms have caused the kind of extreme acidification that we detected in the wake of Harvey. </p>
<p>We reviewed the 10 wettest <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/tcmaxima.html">tropical cyclones in the U.S. since 1900</a> and found that nine, including Harvey, caused large amounts of rain and flooding in coastal areas with bay or estuary ecosystems. Other storms didn’t produce as much rainfall as Harvey, but some of the affected bays were much smaller than Galveston Bay, so less rain would have been needed to replace seawater in the bay and cause a similar level of acidification to what Harvey produced.</p>
<p>We think that this likely has already occurred in other places struck by hurricanes but went unrecorded because scientists weren’t able to measure acidification before and after the storms. As climate change continues to make tropical cyclones larger and wetter, we see storm-induced acidification as a significant threat to coastal ecosystems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196470/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tacey Hicks received funding from Texas Sea Grant to support the publication of this study. Tacey Hicks is currently affiliated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Texas Sea Grant as part of the John A Knauss Marine Policy Fellowship. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Shamberger receives funding from the National Science Foundation, US Department of Energy, and US Environmental Protection Agency.</span></em></p>Climate change is making oceans more acidic globally. Now, scientists are finding that large storms can send pulses of acidic water into bays and estuaries, further stressing fish and shellfish.Tacey Hicks, PhD Candidate in Oceanography, Texas A&M UniversityKathryn Shamberger, Associate Professor of Oceanography, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1993572023-02-06T17:01:03Z2023-02-06T17:01:03ZEarthquake in Turkey and Syria: how satellites can help rescue efforts<p>In disasters like the <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2023/02/06/le-sud-de-la-turquie-frappe-par-un-seisme-de-magnitude-7-8_6160659_3210.html">7.8 magnitude earthquake</a> and <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=us6000jlqa&extent=30.41078,25.37842&extent=42.90816,49.98779">7.5-magnitude aftershock</a> that struck Syria and Turkey on February 6, 2023, international cooperation on satellite imaging plays a crucial role in the rescue and recovery efforts.</p>
<p>Such data enables humanitarian aid to better deliver water and food by mapping the condition of roads, bridges, buildings, and – most crucially – identifying populations trying to escape potential aftershocks by gathering in stadiums or other open spaces.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="satellite photo and location of multiple earthquakes that have struck Turkey and Syria" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Earthquakes that have occurred since Sunday afternoon, February 5, in the region. In blue, the 7.8 magnitude earthquake. In orange, the numerous aftershocks: the size of the disc indicates the magnitude.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=us6000jllz&extent=23.68477,12.74414&extent=48.54571,61.96289&baseLayer=satellite">USGS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To quickly turn the eyes of satellites toward the affected areas, the Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (<a href="https://en.afad.gov.tr/">AFAD</a>) requested the activation of the international charter on <a href="https://disasterscharter.org/web/guest/home">“Space and Major Disasters”</a> at 7:04 a.m. local time. The United Nations did so for Syria at 11:29 local time.</p>
<p>In the meantime, 11 space agencies got ready to operate the most appropriate optical and radar satellites. For France, these are the optical satellites <a href="https://spot.cnes.fr/fr">Spot</a>, <a href="https://pleiades.cnes.fr/en/PLEIADES/index.htm">Pléaides</a> and <a href="https://earth.esa.int/eogateway/missions/pleiades-neo">Pléiades Neo</a> (medium, high and very high resolution), which will provide the first images as they pass over the area. Radar satellites will complement the optical information, as they also operate at night and through clouds, and can image landslides and even very small changes in altitude.</p>
<p>Every year, millions of people around the world are affected by disasters, whether natural (cyclone, tornado, typhoon, earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption, tsunami, flood, forest fire, etc.) or man-made (oil pollution, industrial explosions, and more). Unfortunately, the intensity and frequency of these disasters are increasing with climate change, creating more and more victims, damaged homes, and devastated landscapes.</p>
<h2>Anatomy of a disaster</h2>
<p>The international charter on <a href="https://disasterscharter.org/web/guest/home">“Space and Major Disasters”</a> defines a disaster as a large-scale, sudden, unique and uncontrolled event, resulting in loss of life or damage to property and the environment, and requiring urgent action to acquire and provide data.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Landslide in Munnar, India. Access to affected areas is often difficult.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/rakesh/1933161414/">Rakesh Pai/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The charter was created by the National Space Research Centre and the European Space Agency in 1999, soon joined by the Canadian Space Agency. Today, <a href="https://disasterscharter.org/web/guest/home">17 member space agencies</a> have joined forces to provide free satellite imagery as quickly as possible over the disaster area. Since 2000, the charter has been activated 797 times in more than 154 countries. It has since been complemented by similar initiatives from Europe (<a href="https://emergency.copernicus.eu/">Copernicus Emergency</a>) and Asia (<a href="https://sentinel-asia.org/">Sentinel Asia</a>).</p>
<p>Almost three quarters of the activations of the charter are due to weather phenomena: storms, hurricanes and especially floods, which alone account for half of the activations. In these sometimes unforeseen crisis situations, when the ground is damaged or flooded and roads are impassable, land-based resources are not always able to analyse the extent of the disaster and organise relief and humanitarian aid in the best possible way. By capturing the situation from space, with very high resolution, satellites provide crucial information quickly.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Harvey caused flooding in Texas in 2018, displacing 30,000 people, and requiring the rescue of 17,000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sentinelhub/46200452394/in/album-72157704784948961/">Sentinel Hub/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In some cases, the charter cannot be activated. This can be because the subject matter is outside the scope of the charter (wars and armed conflicts) or because space imagery is sometimes of little interest (in the case of heat waves and epidemics), or because the phenomenon evolves slowly and over a long time span (droughts).</p>
<h2>Satellite data in response to crises around the world</h2>
<p>As soon as a disaster occurs, satellites are programmed to quickly acquire images over the affected areas. More than 60 satellites, optical or radar, can be mobilised at any given time.</p>
<p>Depending on the type of disaster, different satellites will be mobilised, based on pre-established crisis plans – among them: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TanDEM-X">TerraSAR-X/Tandem-X</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QuickBird">QuickBird-2</a>, <a href="https://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/fra/satellites/radarsat/default.asp">Radarsat</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Programme_Landsat">Landsat-7/8</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPOT_(satellite)">SPOT</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pl%C3%A9iades_(satellite)">Pleiades</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel-2">Sentinel-2</a> among others.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russian forest fires in the Irkutsk region in 2017, caused by lightning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sentinelhub/46200453044/in/photostream/">Sentinel Hub/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Optical images are similar to photos seen from space, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/sismo-citoyens-et-chercheurs-du-monde-entier-sallient-pour-comprendre-le-recent-seisme-dha-ti-166787">radar images</a> can be more difficult to interpret by non-experts. So following the disaster, satellite information is reworked to make it easier to understand. For example, the images are transformed into impact or change maps for rescue workers, flood alert maps for the public, and mapping of burnt or flooded areas with damage estimates for decision-makers.</p>
<p>Collaborative work between field users and satellite operators is essential. Progress has been made thanks to innovations in Earth observation technologies (notably the performance of optical resolutions – from 50 to 20 metres and now 30 centimetres) and 3D data processing software, but also thanks to the development of digital tools that can couple satellite and in situ data. The needs of the field have also contributed to the evolution of the charter’s intervention processes in terms of delivery time and quality of the products delivered.</p>
<h2>Reconstruction after disasters</h2>
<p>Emergency management is of course essential, but it is equally vital for all affected countries to consider reconstruction and the future. Indeed, the <a href="https://centredecrise.be/fr/que-font-les-autorites/le-cycle-du-risque">“risk cycle”</a> posits that reconstruction, resilience and risk prevention all play an important role in the return to normality. While disasters cannot be predicted, they can be better prepared for, especially in countries where they are recurrent. For example, residents could benefit from earthquake-resistant construction, the creation of safe gathering places or relocating to living areas to safe locations. Learning survival skills is also crucial.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Floods in Gan in Béarn in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/pezon64/42709789225/">Bernard Pez/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several initiatives, called <a href="https://www.recovery-observatory.org/drupal/en/node/811">“reconstruction observatories”</a>, have been carried out after major disasters – two examples are Haiti in 2021 and in Beirut after the 2019 port explosion. The aim is to coordinate satellite images to enable a detailed and dynamic assessment of damage to buildings, roads, farms, forests and more in the most affected areas, to monitor reconstruction planning, to reduce risks and to monitor changes over a three- to four-year time horizon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199357/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emilie Bronner ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Using space imagery can help guide relief efforts to critical areas during a natural disaster.Emilie Bronner, Représentante CNES au Secrétariat Exécutif de la Charte Internationale Espace et Catastrophes Majeures, Centre national d’études spatiales (CNES)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1923772022-12-12T13:37:14Z2022-12-12T13:37:14ZLocal nonprofits play a key role in recovery from disasters – while also having to get back on their own feet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500071/original/file-20221209-33805-3510zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=200%2C166%2C5359%2C3200&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In mid-2018, nearly a year after Hurricane Harvey, this church's gym in Texas was still serving as a warehouse for donated goods.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/bethel-baptist-church-lead-pastor-jaime-garcia-unloads-news-photo/1021656748?adppopup=true">Carolyn Van Houten/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When hurricanes, floods and other kinds of disasters throttle a community, people from all over often rush to give those in need money, bottled water, diapers and all sorts of goods.</p>
<p>These donations often land at the doorsteps of local nonprofits that are then tasked with distributing them. But while these groups help their communities recuperate, they have to get back on their feet too and can falter if they don’t get what they need.</p>
<p>As an urban planning researcher who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AV-vNJUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">focuses on disaster recovery</a>, I have seen that this process is usually <a href="https://www.chamberofecocommerce.com/images/Organizations_at_Risk.pdf">long and difficult for local nonprofits</a> due to their competing responsibilities. Nonprofits must juggle obligations to serve their communities in new ways while still maintaining their usual operations and rebuilding their own facilities.</p>
<h2>Pivoting after Hurricane Harvey</h2>
<p>I led a research project with other scholars for my dissertation about how nonprofits and small businesses fared in <a href="https://tamucoa-juiceboxinteract.netdna-ssl.com/app/uploads/2022/05/Business-Disruption-and-Recover-Post-Hurricane-Harvey-in-Southeast-Texas.pdf">Southeast Texas after Hurricane Harvey</a>. The Category 4 hurricane initially made landfall along the Gulf Coast near Rockport, Texas, in August 2017. The storm <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/30/harvey-has-unloaded-24-5-trillion-gallons-of-water-on-texas-and-louisiana/">dumped more than 30 trillion gallons of rainwater</a> over a six-day period. The equivalent of a <a href="https://www.hcfcd.org/About/Harris-Countys-Flooding-History/Hurricane-Harvey">year’s worth of rain</a> fell in much of the region in less than a week. </p>
<p>The floodwaters damaged or destroyed thousands of homes, businesses, churches and buildings used by other nonprofits. Authorities estimate that Harvey caused more than 60 deaths and some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/25/climate/hurricane-harvey-climate-change.html">US$125 billion in economic damage</a>. </p>
<p>We interviewed the directors of 30 nonprofits located in Beaumont and Port Arthur, two small Southeast Texas cities, to understand the challenges they experienced as they helped their communities while rebuilding their own operations. The nonprofits included churches and other faith-based institutions, health care providers, private schools and providers of other educational services.</p>
<p>We encountered church staff who had rescued people, and nonprofits, including health care organizations, social service groups and private schools, that <a href="https://www.goldenpasslng.com/newsroom/foundation-for-setx-announces-golden-pass-hurricane-harvey-recovery-fund-grant-recipients">essentially became relief groups</a> by giving away water, clothes and other essential items to those in need. </p>
<p>My research team and I learned that the 30 heavy-lifting nonprofits we studied played an important role in helping their communities recover – regardless of their usual work and mission.</p>
<h2>Role of leadership</h2>
<p>In some cases, whether an organization could thrive after Hurricane Harvey was also influenced by who was leading it.</p>
<p>A total of 21 of the nonprofits had leaders who were women, veterans, racial minorities or had more than one of those characteristics. These organizations reported higher levels of damage, longer disruptions of their power, water and telephone access, and slower recovery of operations compared with the other nine organizations, all of which were led by white men. </p>
<p>This disparity echoed other findings that groups led by women, <a href="https://www.swords-to-plowshares.org/toolbox-article/the-hard-truth-about-veteran-funding">veterans</a> and people of color often <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/nonprofit-black-women-racial-discrimination/2021/07/11/e23cb810-d2da-11eb-a53a-3b5450fdca7a_story.html">get less funding</a>. </p>
<p>The local nonprofits in these small cities that tended to fare best throughout the recovery process were those that received support from larger nonprofits in neighboring cities; groups with ample savings, donations, staff and volunteers; and those with access to disaster recovery information and cleaning supplies.</p>
<h2>Serving many roles in their communities</h2>
<p>While even the smallest nonprofits generally do serve multiple roles, they often acquire new responsibilities after disasters. We found that 12 of the 30 nonprofits found themselves offering new services after Hurricane Harvey.</p>
<p>For example, several churches that primarily held religious services for small groups of congregants became distribution centers serving the entire community – including people with other faith traditions. These churches distributed food, diapers, clothes, gift cards and cleaning supplies. </p>
<p>Close ties with their communities equipped the local nonprofits we studied to pitch in after Harvey by becoming distribution sites. Some of the organizations identified families that were in need but may not have wanted to collect supplies from a public distribution site. </p>
<p>Some of these nonprofits helped emergency responders quickly locate and identify people who had preexisting conditions that had prevented their evacuation.</p>
<p>Several of the groups also used their connections with bilingual neighbors to help the responders <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0899764007310524">convey important information</a> in languages like Spanish and Vietnamese to help local residents who hadn’t mastered English obtain trustworthy information.</p>
<h2>Survival and recovery</h2>
<p>As these nonprofits supported the local community, they themselves had to deal with their own hardships caused by Hurricane Harvey. We found that nearly half needed to repair or replace offices, entire buildings, inventory, machinery or other items. </p>
<p>Many had to find a new place to operate or replace damaged equipment. Several said they lost staff and volunteers who moved away, changed jobs or even died as a result of the storm. Those disruptions interfered with their ability to keep up the services they usually provide and to sustain the new operations their post-Harvey reality required.</p>
<p>Being forced to make do with less money and fewer staff members and volunteers dragged out the recovery process. A year after the storm, all 30 of the nonprofits were still operating, but 24 of them hadn’t fully resumed all of their pre-Harvey operations and programming or completed repairs to their damaged buildings. </p>
<p>More recent data I have collected indicates that many of the 30 nonprofits still had not fully recovered by 2022 – five years after Hurricane Harvey. </p>
<h2>Impact of disasters on nonprofits</h2>
<p>Other researchers have observed that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23303131.2021.1946455">donations to local nonprofits increase</a> immediately after disasters. But those funds dramatically decrease after the initial response and rescue phase. Those local nonprofits are then left to fend for themselves as they manage their own recovery. </p>
<p>Many of the organizations we studied said they needed more funding after Harvey to continue providing their usual services while also taking on local disaster recovery efforts.</p>
<p>Most, even if they got new funding, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11266-021-00415-w">couldn’t use it to quickly bounce back</a>.</p>
<p>It is important to acknowledge that this small data set, taken from two small communities in Texas a year after Hurricane Harvey made landfall, isn’t necessarily representative of what always happens to local nonprofits after a disaster.</p>
<p>However, my findings are in line with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764215591183">previous research</a> about what happens to nonprofits after a disaster: It <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24459718">deprives their communities</a> of much-needed support.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192377/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joy Semien is a funded doctoral candidate at Texas A&M University. She receives funding from NSF and NOAA-RISA. She also owns L.E.E.D. With Joy LLC, where she consults on various research projects. </span></em></p>Research conducted in Southeast Texas casts light on the toll disasters can take on groups that serve as pillars of their communities.Joy Semien, Research Assistant at the Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1916372022-10-03T12:08:25Z2022-10-03T12:08:25ZHow Hurricane Ian and other disasters are becoming a growing source of inequality – even among the middle class<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487648/original/file-20221002-39604-fpljo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C168%2C5204%2C3564&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ian resulted in the deaths of at least 44 people in Florida and tens of billions of dollars in damage.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TropicalWeather/47291a34ba6b433b8c24271ea8275d17/photo?Query=ian%20homes&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=2094&currentItemNo=51">AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Friendswood, Texas, is the type of community that one might think of as a “best case scenario” when it comes to recovering from a disaster. </p>
<p>It is a small tight-knit town with well-resourced residents and a strong social infrastructure of local institutions that provided a huge <a href="https://abc13.com/road-to-recovery-houston-strong-hurricane-harvey-flooding/2455310/">outpouring of support</a> in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in 2017. It is also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/07/climate/FEMA-race-climate.html">the type of community</a> that typically receives a disproportionately high amount of aid from the Federal Emergency Management Agency in the wake of a disaster. </p>
<p>But in a <a href="https://www.russellsage.org/publications/soaking-middle-class">new book</a> based on interviews after Harvey <a href="https://www.chron.com/neighborhood/friendswood/news/article/friendswood-harvey-3000-homes-flooded-12124730.php">devastated</a> the area, we found that households in Friendswood ended up on starkly divergent financial trajectories.</p>
<p>Our results suggest residents of Florida and others in the path of Hurricane Ian – especially those without <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-01/few-florida-homes-hit-by-hurricane-ian-are-covered-for-floods">flood insurance</a> or significant aid from social networks – may struggle for years or have to take on large new debts to pay for repairs. Our findings also point to solutions to prevent the growing number of climate-related disasters from worsening inequalities in the U.S.</p>
<h2>What cost estimates don’t capture</h2>
<p>From 1980 through July 2022, the United States experienced <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">332 disasters</a> that each caused at least US$1 billion in damages – and their frequency is escalating.</p>
<p>Ian will certainly be added to the list after barreling across Florida, causing <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/hurricane-ian-higher-prices-for-rebuilding-costs-construction-rcna50011">tens of billions of dollars</a> in estimated damage and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/02/us/hurricane-ian-florida-south-carolina">deaths of at least 44 people</a>.</p>
<p>While the dollar amount may be astronomical, what it does not capture is the ways that this cost is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102855">borne unequally</a>, both within and between communities. In other words, the total price tag doesn’t tell us how Ian will <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spy016">exacerbate existing inequalities</a>. </p>
<p>Research after past disasters like Hurricane Katrina has shown that not only are poor and nonwhite communities often the <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1007/s11111-009-0099-8">hardest hit</a> by disasters, but also that FEMA aid disproportionately goes to <a href="https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_events_6123/calendar_1921/stratifying_disaster_state_aid_institutional_processes_and_inequality_in_american_communities_8392/">whiter and wealthier communities</a> of homeowners in the aftermath. </p>
<p>So it’s clear that disadvantaged communities will always be hurt the most when disaster strikes. </p>
<p>What is less clear is whether inequality also grows within communities, especially those that typically receive more support and resources. Climate change is making these types of areas more vulnerable as storms like Ian grow in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/climate/climate-changes-hurricane-intensity.html">intensity and scope</a>. Yet, little is known about how recovery works in relatively well-off places, which generally have more resources to rebound after disasters.</p>
<h2>Neighbors may experience very different recoveries</h2>
<p>This is what motivated us to <a href="https://www.russellsage.org/publications/soaking-middle-class">examine recovery</a> in Friendswood, a middle-class, majority-white suburb outside of Houston that flooded during Hurricane Harvey in 2017. We interviewed 59 households multiple times over two years after the storm to understand the recovery process and the financial consequences of disaster for residents in a well-resourced place.</p>
<p>After Harvey, we found that Friendswood residents were on three different recovery trajectories. </p>
<p>About 47% of the households we interviewed two years after the storm had fully recovered – some had even grown their net worth. A second group, making up just under a quarter of our sample, was mostly recovered, with some repairs remaining but most of the work completed. In this group, many were likely to have new outstanding debts taken on during the repair process. A third group of residents, around 18%, was still living in homes without complete walls or floors – repairs they were uncertain they would ever be able to afford. And a small percentage had moved after the storm. </p>
<p>Pre-flood advantages like having a higher income certainly helped determine which group households ended up in. Residents with more financial resources before Harvey tended to fare better than their less-well-off neighbors.</p>
<p>But we also found that a few additional factors played a key role in determining whether a given household had completed repairs. </p>
<p>One of the most important was <a href="https://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance">flood insurance</a>. We know from past research that higher-valued homes are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2015.1119179">more likely to be insured</a>. We found this to be the case in Friendswood as well. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="homes and trees are surrounded by flood waters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487637/original/file-20221002-25-c1nsjo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487637/original/file-20221002-25-c1nsjo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487637/original/file-20221002-25-c1nsjo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487637/original/file-20221002-25-c1nsjo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487637/original/file-20221002-25-c1nsjo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487637/original/file-20221002-25-c1nsjo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487637/original/file-20221002-25-c1nsjo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Harvey caused massive flooding in Texas in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IncreasingHurricaneDevastation/ab01cdf00dfc48318bdbbd2bf4af8c45/photo?Query=hurricane%20harvey%20texas&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1478&currentItemNo=32">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When Harvey hit, insured households were eligible for payouts of up to $350,000, while households without insurance were eligible for FEMA aid capped at only $33,300. In other words, insured households, who tended to be financially advantaged before the storm, could get around 10 times more than the uninsured. </p>
<p>While uninsured households could apply to the <a href="https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/disaster-assistance">Small Business Administration</a> for low-interest home repair loans, not all disaster-affected residents were deemed eligible. And we found that many who did take out an SBA loan ended up with over $100,000 in new debt. </p>
<p>One year after Harvey, when a resident had to start repaying her SBA loan, she told us that it made a big dent in her family’s monthly budget – “That’s a $400 payment every month that we have to make,” she said. “So, I mean, it’s just tight.” </p>
<h2>The importance of social networks</h2>
<p>Another key factor in recovery was <a href="https://theconversation.com/recovering-from-disasters-social-networks-matter-more-than-bottled-water-and-batteries-69611">assistance from social networks</a>. This included cash donations, labor and building materials to help repair homes, child care and food preparation, as well as emotional support that came from family, friends, neighbors and other community groups that people were connected to. </p>
<p>In some cases, this assistance was robust enough to help flooded residents fully repair their homes even when they did not have significant financial resources of their own. </p>
<p>For example, one older Friendswood resident, despite not having insurance, was one of the first in her neighborhood to move back into her repaired home because her brother provided building materials, financial assistance and labor. </p>
<p>“My brother fronted the cost for me until FEMA came through,” she told us, adding, “Had it not been for my brother, I don’t know what I would have done.” </p>
<p>Other residents relied heavily on networks through church, work or their children’s schools for help rebuilding. But not everyone was connected to a broad network that could provide support. </p>
<h2>The ‘Matthew Effect’</h2>
<p>Many of the residents who still had major repairs left two years after Harvey tended to be in the lowest-income brackets and those without robust social networks. </p>
<p>They also typically did not have flood insurance or access to an SBA loan to help cover repair costs. Some of these households applied for SBA loans but were denied. SBA determines eligibility based on a number of factors, including credit scores and ability to repay, which means that some households with the greatest need for assistance are denied loans. With access to fewer financial resources, most in this group had relatively little room in their budgets and were uncertain when, or if, they would ever be able to complete these repairs. </p>
<p>Social scientists refer to this as the “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/psychology/matthew-effect">Matthew Effect</a>” – a term that captures the pattern when those who already have advantages tend to accumulate more, while the disadvantaged fall further behind. This creates a growing disparity between the advantaged and disadvantaged during the recovery process. </p>
<p>To avoid these problems, we believe policymakers could do more to inform homeowners of their flood risks and <a href="https://theconversation.com/flood-risk-ratings-translating-risk-to-future-costs-helps-homebuyers-and-renters-grasp-the-odds-186798">available insurance options</a>. But the U.S. cannot insure its way out of this problem. </p>
<p>We believe it’s also important to support and expand <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/opinion/houston-flooding-climate-change.html">managed retreat</a> policies, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/managed-retreat-done-right-can-reinvent-cities-so-theyre-better-for-everyone-and-avoid-harm-from-flooding-heat-and-fires-163052">provide resources</a> for residents and communities to move away from the most vulnerable places. In addition, the U.S. could design more equitable approaches to disbursing FEMA aid and SBA loans to ensure low-income and nonwhite households have better access. This would help minimize the inequalities that emerge both within and between communities in the wake of disaster. </p>
<p>Even in a middle-class community like Friendswood, which seemed well positioned to recover from disaster, residents still fell through the cracks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191637/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Rhodes receives funding from the Russell Sage Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Max Besbris receives funding from the Russell Sage Foundation. </span></em></p>Research on Hurricane Harvey found that flood insurance and strong social networks were key factors in determining how quickly people recovered, regardless of socioeconomic status.Anna Rhodes, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Rice UniversityMax Besbris, Assistant Professor of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-MadisonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1467282020-09-24T19:10:14Z2020-09-24T19:10:14ZHomes are flooding outside FEMA’s 100-year flood zones, and racial inequality is showing through<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359877/original/file-20200924-20-1400ezi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=291%2C354%2C2299%2C1612&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Harvey showed the racial disparities in flood damage outside Houston's 100-year flood zones.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-wait-to-be-rescued-from-their-flooded-homes-after-news-photo/840245708">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When hurricanes and other extreme storms unleash downpours like Tropical Storm Beta has been doing in the South, the floodwater doesn’t always stay within the government’s flood risk zones.</p>
<p>New research suggests that nearly twice as many properties are at risk from a 100-year flood today than the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s flood maps indicate. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, many of the people living in those properties have no idea that their homes are at risk until the floodwaters rise.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=SmYUxIEAAAAJ&hl=en">sociologist who works on disaster vulnerability</a>. In a new study, I looked at the makeup of communities in Houston that aren’t in the 100-year flood zone, but that still flood. What I found tells a story of racial disparities in the city. Research in other cities has shown <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/25381/chapter/4">similar flooding problems</a> in predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods. </p>
<p>Poor stormwater infrastructure, expanding urbanization and limited flood mitigation efforts are a few of the reasons why.</p>
<h2>Flooding outside the zones</h2>
<p>About <a href="https://furmancenter.org/files/Floodplain_PopulationBrief_12DEC2017.pdf">15 million</a> Americans live in FEMA’s current 100-year flood zones. The designation warns them that their properties face a 1% risk of flooding in any given year. They must obtain flood insurance if they want a federally ensured loan – insurance that helps them recover from flooding.</p>
<p>In Greater Houston, however, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01840.x">47% of claims</a> made to FEMA across three decades before Hurricane Harvey were outside of the 100-year flood zones. Harris County, recognizing that FEMA flood maps don’t capture the full risk, now <a href="https://www.hcfcd.org/floodinsurance">recommends that every household</a> in Houston and the rest of the county have flood insurance.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman puts her daughter's shoe on after they were rescued from a flooded apartment complex." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359882/original/file-20200924-23-1nf75x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Harris County, home to Houston, now recommends all households have flood insurance, whether they’re in a FEMA flood zone or not.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SevereWeatherTexas/4fe6ec4e1f7c4e328e50cf71f3f3606d/photo">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>New risk models point to a similar conclusion: Flood risk in these areas outstrips expectations in the current FEMA flood maps.</p>
<p>One of those models, from the <a href="https://firststreet.org/flood-lab/research/2020-national-flood-risk-assessment-highlights/">First Street Foundation</a>, estimates that the number of properties at risk in a 100-year storm is 1.7 times higher than the FEMA maps suggest. Other <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaac65">researchers</a> find an even higher margin, with 2.6 to 3.1 times more people exposed to serious flooding in a 100-year storm than FEMA estimates.</p>
<h2>What FEMA’s flood maps miss</h2>
<p>Understanding why areas outside the 100-year flood zones are flooding more often than the FEMA maps suggest involves larger social and environmental issues. Three reasons stand out.</p>
<p>First, some places rely on relatively old FEMA maps that don’t account for recent urbanization.</p>
<p>Urbanization matters because impervious surfaces – think pavement and buildings – are not effective sponges like natural landscapes can be. Moreover, the process for updating floodplain maps is locally variable and can take years to complete. Famously, New York City was updating its maps when Hurricane Sandy hit in 2012 but hadn’t finished, meaning flood maps in effect <a href="https://projects.propublica.org/nyc-flood/">were from 1983</a>. FEMA is required to assess whether updates are needed every five years, but the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/cis/nation.html">majority of maps</a> <a href="https://www.oig.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/assets/2017/OIG-17-110-Sep17.pdf">are older</a>.</p>
<p>Second, binary thinking can lead people to an underaccounting of risk, and that can mean communities fail to take steps that could protect a neighborhood from flooding. The logic goes: if I’m not in the 100-year floodplain, then I’m not at risk. Risk perception <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab195a">research</a> backs this up. FEMA-delineated flood zones are the major factor shaping flood mitigation behaviors.</p>
<p>Third, the era of climate change scuttles conventional assumptions.</p>
<p>As the planet warms, extreme storms are becoming <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/">more common and severe</a>. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at a high rate, computer models suggest that the chances of a severe storm dropping 20 inches of rain on Texas in any given year will increase from about 1% at the end of the last century to 18% at the end of this one, a chance of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716222114">once every 5.5 years</a>. So far, <a href="https://www.rstreet.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/195.pdf">FEMA hasn’t taken into account the impact climate change is having</a> on extreme weather and sea level rise.</p>
<h2>Racial disparities in flooding outside the zones</h2>
<p>So, who is at risk?</p>
<p>Years of research and evidence from storms have highlighted social inequalities in areas with a high risk of flooding. But most local governments have less understanding of the social and demographic composition of communities that experience flood impacts outside of flood zones.</p>
<p>In analyzing the damage from Hurricane Harvey in the Houston area, I found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba0fe">Black and Hispanic residents disproportionately experienced flooding</a> in areas beyond FEMA’s 100-year flood zones.</p>
<p>With the majority of flooding from Hurricane Harvey occurring outside of 100-year flood zones, this meant that the overall impact of Harvey was racially unequal too.</p>
<p>Research into where flooding occurs in Baltimore, Chicago and Phoenix points to some of the potential causes. <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/25381/chapter/4#16">In Baltimore and Chicago</a>, for example, aging storm and sewer infrastructure, poor construction and insufficient efforts to mitigate flooding are part of the flooding problem in some predominantly Black neighborhoods. </p>
<h2>What can be done about it</h2>
<p>Better accounting for those three reasons could substantively improve risk assessments and help cities prioritize infrastructure improvements and flood mitigation projects in these at-risk neighborhoods.</p>
<p>For example, First Street Foundation’s risk maps account for <a href="https://firststreet.org/flood-lab/research/flood-model-methodology_overview/">climate change</a> and present <a href="https://floodfactor.com/">ratings</a> on a scale from 1 to 10. FEMA, which works with communities to update flood maps, is <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1521054297905-ca85d066dddb84c975b165db653c9049/TMAC_2017_Annual_Report_Final508(v8)_03-12-2018.pdf">exploring rating systems</a>. And the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine recently <a href="https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2019/03/new-report-calls-for-different-approaches-to-predict-and-understand-urban-flooding">called for a new generation of flood maps</a> that takes climate change into account. </p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Including recent urbanization in those assessments will matter too, especially in fast-growing cities like Houston, where <a href="https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1boBRyDvMFW6W">386 new square miles</a> of impervious surfaces were created in the last 20 years. That’s greater than the land area of New York City. New construction in one area can also <a href="https://scalawagmagazine.org/2018/01/city-in-a-swamp-as-houston-booms-its-flood-problems-are-only-getting-worse/">impact older neighborhoods downhill</a> during a flood, as some Houston communities discovered in Hurricane Harvey.</p>
<p>Improving risk assessments is needed not just to better prepare communities for major flood events, but also to prevent racial inequalities – in housing and beyond – from <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/03/05/688786177/how-federal-disaster-money-favors-the-rich">growing</a> after the unequal impacts of disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin T. Smiley receives funding from an Early-Career Fellowship from Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and is supported as a Fellow in the Enabling Program for the Next Generation of Hazards and Disasters Researchers as part of the National Science Foundation's Humans, Disasters, and the Built Environment program.</span></em></p>New risk models show nearly twice as many properties are at risk from a 100-year flood today than the government’s flood maps indicate.Kevin T. Smiley, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Louisiana State University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1211632019-08-28T11:46:33Z2019-08-28T11:46:33ZHurricane evacuation of nursing home residents still an unsolved challenge<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288742/original/file-20190820-170941-1trg3fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The nursing home in Hollywood Hills, Fla., where 12 people died after the center lost power from Hurricane Irma in 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/PGroup-mpi122-MediaPunch-IPx-A-ENT-Florida-Unit-/8040fec4c19f43b384ff7d557de06c6f/9/0">mpi122/MediaPunch/IPX/AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hurricane Dorian is bearing down on Florida, and Floridians young and old are preparing for the worst. And, others could follow Dorian, as the <a href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/atlantic-hurricane-season-ramp-up-august">historical peak of the Atlantic season is approaching</a>. While these storms can be terrifying, when a bad one is on the way, people usually have time to prepare. One key decision is choosing whether to flee to a safe location or ride out the storm in our homes. </p>
<p>For frail, older people these often are life-and-death decisions. On Aug. 26, three nurses and a nursing home administrator were <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2019/08/26/florida-nursing-home-deaths-hollywood-hills-arrests-expected/2118769001/">criminally charged</a> in the heat-related deaths of 12 people in a Hollywood Hills, Florida, nursing home after Hurricane Irma in 2017. The facility did not evacuate for the storm and lost air conditioning power. </p>
<p>We’re studying long-term care administrators’ decisions to evacuate or shelter in place for Hurricane Irma, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/us/hurricane-irma-miami-florida.html">which threatened the entire state</a> of Florida, and Hurricane Harvey, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/30/harvey-has-unloaded-24-5-trillion-gallons-of-water-on-texas-and-louisiana/?noredirect=on">which dumped flooding rain</a> on parts of Texas less than a month earlier. The obvious choice may be to evacuate. But in our research we’re learning these decisions are not so clear-cut. </p>
<p>These decisions are hard because both choices – evacuating or sheltering in place – present risks. To keep older adults safe in future disasters, we need to know more about how long-term care facilities prepare for hurricanes, how administrators decide whether to evacuate or shelter in place, and how their residents fare as a result of these decisions.</p>
<h2>Dangers of evacuating</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288747/original/file-20190820-170931-e4fdoe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288747/original/file-20190820-170931-e4fdoe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288747/original/file-20190820-170931-e4fdoe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288747/original/file-20190820-170931-e4fdoe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288747/original/file-20190820-170931-e4fdoe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288747/original/file-20190820-170931-e4fdoe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288747/original/file-20190820-170931-e4fdoe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Evacuating older people such as this man can be a challenge. Elders often don’t fare well when transferred because of the stress of a move.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/elderly-man-recuperating-hospital-lying-asleep-290235572?src=6KluyLlGTL_BQ3n0Njq7kA-1-28">belushi/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our work is an extension of federally funded research into nursing home evacuations after the hurricanes that struck the Gulf Coast between 2005 and 2008 - Katrina, Rita, Gustav and Ike. These studies, led by members of our research team, used Medicare data to find out what happened to nursing home residents in the weeks after the hurricanes. The researchers found that the rates of death and hospitalization rose for residents who experienced the hurricanes – <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3264770/">with higher tolls among those who were subject to evacuation</a>.
<a href="https://www.aging.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/SCA_Hyer_09_20_17.pdf">Interviews with some of the administrators</a> who’d evacuated their nursing homes helped explain this.</p>
<p>They described the strain on the frail residents of being jostled onto buses and riding for hours to their destinations. In some cases, the destination sites were full or unfit, and they had to find other places to go. Even after they reached safe locations, residents endured disruptions in their sleeping, eating and treatment schedules.</p>
<p>To be sure, sheltering in place also posed great risks. After Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005, <a href="https://scholarship.law.marquette.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=1068&context=elders">more than 50 people died in two nursing homes that did not evacuate</a>, tragedies that commanded headlines. </p>
<p>But overall, our team’s research found evacuation posed a greater risk – one that the general public didn’t see because the deaths and hospitalizations came a while after the hurricanes had passed.</p>
<h2>Studying responses to Hurricane Irma</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288750/original/file-20190820-170931-1pmpqnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288750/original/file-20190820-170931-1pmpqnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288750/original/file-20190820-170931-1pmpqnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288750/original/file-20190820-170931-1pmpqnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288750/original/file-20190820-170931-1pmpqnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288750/original/file-20190820-170931-1pmpqnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288750/original/file-20190820-170931-1pmpqnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">While disaster planning had improved in the 10 years before Irma, the ferociousness of that storm caused major problems, including power losses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/flooded-street-after-catastrophic-hurricane-irma-1256683174?src=Qyvb-kDkCtQhpAdT8uLuLw-1-21">FotoKina/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When Hurricane Irma took aim at Florida about this time two years ago, those who cared for frail older adults had to start making decisions. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/08/florida-officials-warn-irma-will-be-storm-wider-than-the-state">State officials warned of potentially catastrophic damage</a>.</p>
<p>Disaster planning had improved since the hurricanes a decade earlier. State and federal nursing home regulators had issued <a href="https://www.cms.gov/medicare/provider-enrollment-and-certification/surveycertemergprep/emergency-prep-rule.html">new, more comprehensive rules</a>, and the nursing home groups, such as <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2010.0665">the Florida Health Care Association, had revamped their disaster preparedness programs</a> with the help of members of our research team. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ahcancal.org/facility_operations/disaster_planning/Documents/Hurricane_Summit_May2007.pdf">Despite efforts to spread the word about evacuation risks</a>, in our current research on the 2017 hurricanes, early analysis of state of Florida data showed that thousands of older adults – residents of 81 of 674 nursing homes and 562 of 3,112 assisted living communities – were <a href="https://www.usfsp.edu/icar/files/2019/01/Hyer_Panel3.pdf">moved to other locations for Hurricane Irma.</a> Many of the facilities that relocated for the storm were not even in evacuation zones. </p>
<p>Does this mean that long-term care administrators did not learn the lessons of past hurricanes about the dangers of evacuation? Until we get further along in our current research, we hesitate to say that. </p>
<p>Our research team is now in the process of examining the Medicare data concerning the health of the thousands of people whose facilities were affected by hurricanes Irma and Harvey. The Medicare analysis is similar to the earlier research on hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Gustav and Ike, with the addition of assisted living, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30066481">which is growing as an alternative to nursing homes</a>. Assisted living residents tend to be healthier than nursing home residents, but <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db299.htm">many are physically</a> and <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2013.1255">cognitively limited.</a> We’re looking specifically at the effect of the storms on long-term care residents with dementia. </p>
<p>Our current research team is also studying the characteristics of Harvey and Irma and the facilities themselves to find out which factors had the greatest effect on evacuation decisions. And to understand this decision-making in greater depth, we are interviewing long-term care administrators in Florida about their choices and experiences.</p>
<p>In these interviews we have learned these can be excruciating decisions involving local and state emergency managers and multiple pieces of information: the path and force of the coming storm, the vulnerability of their buildings to the winds and the water, and critically, the health and vulnerability of their residents. </p>
<h2>Planning for future storms</h2>
<p>Because Irma was such a large hurricane, many faced the uncertainty of what to do when their evacuation destinations turned them down at the last minute, either because these sites also had evacuated or had filled up with residents from elsewhere. Others were secure in their plans to shelter in place because they had reinforced windows or multiple levels and the ability to escape flooding by moving residents to higher floors. However, we’ve learned through our interviews that many others lacked these assets, especially the smaller family-run facilities that often are home to people with lower incomes. </p>
<p>Power generation emerged as a major issue in Hurricane Irma. After <a href="https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Sheltering%20in%20Danger%20Report%20(2%20Nov%202018).pdf">the deaths</a> in Hollywood Hills, <a href="https://ahca.myflorida.com/MCHQ/Emergency_Activities/EPP.shtml">the Florida Legislature required that all nursing homes and assisted living communities have generators</a> powerful enough to maintain safe temperatures. And while this mandate has been controversial, there is little dispute about the need for power in any facility that shelters in place. </p>
<p>As our research progresses, we will have more precise data on the effect of evacuating and sheltering in place on frail adults. Given what we learned from the studies a decade ago about evacuation risks, we want to find out what enables a facility to most effectively work with state and local officials to safely shelter in place, but also how to minimize the harm of an evacuation when evacuation is the only rational course. We need this knowledge to help long-term care administrators make the best decisions possible <a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">as they face storms of increasing intensity in the coming years.</a></p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121163/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lindsay Jo Peterson receives funding from The Donaghue Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Hyer receives funding from National Institute of Aging for this research. I also have funding from the Health Services Resource Administration on the Geriatric Workforce Enhancement Grant.
I serve on many nonprofit boards, including President elect of Gerontological Society of America. None of the Boards I serve on pay me and I do not consider them to be political entities or raise any conflicts of interest.</span></em></p>Hurricane season presents special dangers for elders, particularly for those in nursing homes and assisted living. Research indicates sheltering-in-place may actually be less risky than evacuating, at times.Lindsay J. Peterson, Instructor, School of Aging Studies, University of South FloridaKathryn Hyer, Professor, Director Florida Policy Exchange Center on Aging, University of South FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1140532019-03-22T10:44:43Z2019-03-22T10:44:43ZWhy flood insurance needs an overhaul: 6 questions answered<p><em>Editor’s note: The Trump administration plans to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-18/climate-advocates-cheer-trump-policy-shift-on-flood-insurance">significantly revamp the pricing of flood insurance</a>. While some homeowners would see their premiums rise, others would benefit from lower rates. We asked an insurance expert to explain what the government program currently works and why it’s in dire need of fixing.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is flood insurance?</h2>
<p>Homeowners’ insurance does not cover damage to a home caused by flooding. A homeowner must have a separate policy to cover flood-related losses, defined as water traveling along or under the ground.</p>
<p>Most such policies are underwritten by the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, which is part of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The program was established in 1968 to address the lack of availability of flood insurance in the private market and reduce demand for federal disaster assistance. It also contains <a href="https://www.fema.gov/floodplain-management-requirements">provisions</a> intended to reduce flood risk.</p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program’s activities are funded largely by the premiums and fees paid by its policyholders, supplemented by a little from the federal budget to help pay for flood risk mapping. Because the program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1385590588018-fef2f58685fac4e186105be4c6ac51be/Sandy_MAT_AppF_508post.pdf">serves the public interest</a> by promoting “sound land use” and minimizing exposure of property to flood losses, <a href="https://morningconsult.com/opinions/save-national-flood-insurance-investing-nature/">some</a> believe that more of its funding for flood risk management should be borne by taxpayers. </p>
<p>Homeowners can purchase a federal flood policy directly from the program or through a private insurer. Separately, some private insurers sell their own flood policies on a limited basis for properties that are overcharged by the government’s program.</p>
<h2>2. How many American homeowners have flood insurance?</h2>
<p>It is difficult to determine exactly how many homeowners have flood insurance. </p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/policies-force-month">had just over 5 million policies in force</a> as of this January. Of these policies, approximately 69 percent were on single-family homes and 20 percent on condo units. There is no source on how many private flood policies are in force, but my sense is that that they represent only about 15 percent of all policies sold nationally.</p>
<p>In recent years, the <a href="https://bsa.nfipstat.fema.gov/reports/1011.htm">number of such policies</a> has been dropping across the country over concerns about the cost and because people underestimate the risk of flooding. In Nebraska, the hardest hit by recent record flooding in the Midwest, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/river-flooding-in-midwest-damage-will-likely-total-more-than-1-billion/">there are fewer than 10,000 policies</a> for a state with almost 2 million residents. The damage is expected to exceed US$1 billion. </p>
<p>Even hurricane-prone areas, such as those hit by Harvey in 2017, are woefully underinsured. In Harris County, which includes Houston, for example, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/consumer-flood-insurance-wake-hurricane-harvey/story?id=49535161">experts estimated</a> before Harvey that only about 15 percent of homeowners were insured for floods – though the percentage should be higher in areas near coastlines.</p>
<p>Real estate data company <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/news/wildfires-and-hurricane-related-floods-were-most-destructive-natural-hazards-in-2017.aspx">CoreLogic</a> estimated that approximately 75 percent of flood losses from Harvey were uninsured, a figure that totaled about 80 percent for Hurricane Irma.</p>
<h2>3. Why do people at great risk of flooding forgo insurance?</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://riskcenter.wharton.upenn.edu/publications/">number of factors</a> affect a homeowner’s decision to buy flood insurance – or not. </p>
<p>People who perceive that their exposure to floods is high are more likely to buy it, all other things equal. While a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/faq-details/Mandatory-Purchase-of-NFIP-Coverage/">mandatory purchase requirement</a> is intended to force owners of mortgaged homes in areas at high risk of flooding to buy insurance, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-13/hurricanes-highlight-failure-to-enforce-flood-insurance-rules">it’s estimated</a> that only about half of them do. </p>
<p>One reason might be that 43 percent of homeowners <a href="http://www.iii.org/sites/default/files/docs/pdf/pulse-wp-020217-final.pdf">incorrectly believe</a> that their homeowners’ insurance covers them for flood losses.</p>
<p>Other factors also come into play, such as a lack of information, the difficulty of calculating flood risk and the expectation that the government will provide disaster assistance that will fully cover a homeowner’s uninsured flood losses – which is in fact <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/business/harvey-aid-sba-disaster-loans.html?mcubz=1&_r=0">rarely the case</a>.</p>
<h2>4. What does flood insurance cover?</h2>
<p>With a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1620-20490-4648/f_679_summaryofcoverage_11_2012.pdf">National Flood Insurance Program policy</a>, a homeowner can purchase coverage on a dwelling up to $250,000 and the contents of a home up to $100,000. It does not cover costs associated with “loss of use” of a home. </p>
<p>These limits have been in effect since 1994 and are no longer high enough to account for the increase in the replacement cost of homes and the actual cash value of their contents. As a result, some homeowners buy additional flood protection from private insurers to make up any shortfall. </p>
<h2>5. Why is the National Flood Insurance Program underwater?</h2>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684354.pdf">has faced considerable criticism</a> over its underwriting and pricing of policies, which have resulted in a substantial debt. Essentially, its premiums are not high enough to cover how much it pays out on claims and its other costs. </p>
<p>Part of the problem is that <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1382115115666-0fba8b9a68fef69d546513c6da105bbe/BW12_AgentWhat_to_Know_Say_Sect205_Sept2013.pdf">about 20 percent of the properties</a> the program insures pay a subsidized rate. But many other National Flood Insurance Program policyholders are also paying premiums <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/08/29/key-flood-insurance-underwriter-sinks-further-into-debt-as-harvey-slams-texas.html">substantially less</a> than what it costs to insure them based largely on whether a home is inside or outside of the 100-year floodplain. </p>
<p>To show how much single storms can cost, the National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/significant-flood-events">paid out $8.7 billion</a> to cover Harvey-related flood losses, $16.3 billion for Katrina and $8.8 billion for Sandy. </p>
<p>These inadequate rates also exacerbate the <a href="http://blogs.colgate.edu/economics/files/2014/09/McGee-2014-Moral-Hazard-and-the-National-Flood-Insurance-Program.pdf">moral hazard created by flood insurance</a>. People are more likely to buy, build or rebuild homes in flood-prone areas and have diminished incentives to invest in flood risk mitigation, such as by elevating their home, if they can buy insurance at below-cost rates. </p>
<p>Although Congress <a href="https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20171027/NEWS06/912316843/Trump-signs-disaster-relief-bill-forgiving-16-billion-dollars-NFIP-debt">forgave</a> $16 billion in debt in 2017, the National Flood Insurance Program still owed <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/700/697245.pdf">$21 billion</a> to the U.S. Treasury as of September. </p>
<p><iframe id="hnDTa" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hnDTa/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>6. What can be done to fix the program?</h2>
<p>Legislative efforts to reform the National Flood Insurance Program to put it on firmer fiscal footing have produced mixed results. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/31946">Biggert-Waters Act of 2012</a> made a number of changes to the program, such as increasing premiums, to make it “<a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1912-25045-9380/bw12_qa_04_2013.pdf">more financially stable</a>.” While that would have gone a long way to restore its fiscal solvency, an outcry from homeowners in high-risk areas led to the 2014 <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/collections/414">Homeowners Flood Insurance Affordability Act</a>, which limited or rescinded many of the Biggert-Waters rate increases. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, the program that millions of Americans rely on to help them rebuild their lives after a devastating flood <a href="https://www.marsh.com/us/insights/research/reforming-the-national-flood-insurance-program.html">needs to be fixed</a>. Its dire financial straits could be resolved by either making taxpayers foot more of the bill or increasing premiums closer to full-cost rates for most homeowners, while also raising total coverage levels.</p>
<p>The Trump administration for its part <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-18/climate-advocates-cheer-trump-policy-shift-on-flood-insurance">proposes calculating premiums</a> to more accurately reflect the actual flood risk individual homes face beginning in 2020. This could result in higher rates for many homeowners.</p>
<p>But I believe the government also needs to do more to convince or compel more at-risk homeowners to buy flood insurance – which would be harder to do if it were to raise rates. To me, this suggests that increasing taxpayer support for the program will have to be part of the solution so that pricey premiums don’t become a deterrent to someone buying insurance. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-flood-insurance-works-6-questions-answered-83187">article</a> originally published on Sept. 7, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114053/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert W. Klein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Trump administration has proposed a major revamp of the National Flood Insurance Program since its inception in 1968. Here’s why it needs fixing.Robert W. Klein, Professor Emeritus of Risk Management and Insurance, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1032152018-09-28T10:35:16Z2018-09-28T10:35:16ZUS generosity after disasters: 4 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238224/original/file-20180926-48656-1vlkrf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A sign posted in New Bern, North Carolina after Hurricane Florence. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Tropical-Weather/64c02d9f769e490ea10507b77657ea2b/7/0">AP Photo/Gary D Robertson</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/1805/5727">After 9/11</a>, Americans responded with the kind of outpouring of generosity usually reserved for the most powerful hurricanes and earthquakes. Ever since those terrorist attacks, the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy has tracked donations from people, businesses and foundations after natural and man-made disasters. Here are some of the highlights of what we’ve learned.</em></p>
<h2>1. How quickly do donations roll in?</h2>
<p>Most Americans who donate to support disaster relief act quickly. They give to charities that can help with relief efforts when they see photos and video clips that capture the fury of the storms and the devastation wrought by hurricanes and earthquakes.</p>
<p>Americans typically make these donations within six weeks of a big disaster, when media coverage is the most intense. Their contributions usually slow to a crawl within two or three months and typically dry up by the six-month mark, once the cameras stop rolling and news cycle moves on – even as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-help-after-a-disaster-consider-waiting-a-bit-103211">needs remain significant</a>.</p>
<p>Giving after <a href="http://www.history.com/topics/hurricane-katrina">Hurricane Katrina</a> marked an exception to this rule. The cumulative total donations for relief efforts after that storm almost doubled from the second month to the sixth month, rising from US$2.2 billion to almost $4.5 billion.</p>
<p><iframe id="NOFLR" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NOFLR/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>2. How much do Americans give after disasters?</h2>
<p>While massive donations from celebrities get the most attention, most of these disaster relief contributions are small and from people you’ve never heard of. Almost half of Americans reported giving money to charities for disaster relief after Katrina, and almost three-fourths donated after 9/11, we found. </p>
<p>The typical, or median, gift following both emergencies was $50 per household, and few households donated more than $100, according to data <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0899764004269738">we analyzed</a> from the <a href="http://www.wheremostneeded.org/2006/05/conference_boar.html">Conference Board</a>, a business research group.</p>
<p><iframe id="VKsRC" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VKsRC/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>3. What kind of people give?</h2>
<p>To learn more about who gives to relief efforts, we studied the demographics of people who made donations to charities that raised money to support victims of the 9/11 attacks.</p>
<p>We found that <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/1805/5727">older people were more likely to contribute</a>. For each additional year of age, individuals were 3.4 percent more likely to donate for 9/11 relief, regardless of their income, education and marital status. </p>
<p>Households with higher incomes tended to give more than lower-income families. For example, households earning $80,000 or more gave an average of $242 to cover 9/11 relief efforts, more than three times that of households earning $40,000 or less. </p>
<p><iframe id="KLASq" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KLASq/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><a href="http://hdl.handle.net/1805/5727">We detected</a> few other statistically significant differences among donors. That is, Americans gave the same way whether they were men or women; white, black, Latino, Asian-American or Native American; if they were high school dropouts or had graduate degrees; if they had young children, grown children or no kids at all.</p>
<p>Still, religious people, those with at least some college education and families with college students were more likely to donate and to volunteer than everyone else. Those with more education and higher incomes were significantly more likely to donate blood, food or clothing – but not more likely to give money. </p>
<p>We also found that men were significantly less likely to donate <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-giving-cash-not-clothing-is-usually-best-after-disasters-83405">in-kind items</a> than women.</p>
<h2>4. How much do Americans donate for big relief efforts?</h2>
<p>Americans often give on a big scale to major relief efforts within our borders and abroad. </p>
<p>Within six months of the emergencies that arose from Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, U.S. donors wrote checks totaling $4.5 billion, which we believe is the highest total ever. Americans gave $2.8 billion after 9/11, $2 billion after the 2004 <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/12/1227_041226_tsunami.html">Indian Ocean tsunami</a> and $1.6 billion following <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/12/world/haiti-earthquake-fast-facts/index.html">Haiti’s 2010 earthquake</a>, the three other largest waves of donations since 2001.</p>
<p>Significant but smaller sums were raised after hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria in 2017, the earthquake and tsunami that rocked <a href="https://www.livescience.com/39110-japan-2011-earthquake-tsunami-facts.html">Japan in 2011</a> and Superstorm Sandy in 2012. </p>
<p><iframe id="xVJiB" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xVJiB/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>It is too soon to say how much Americans will donate to support relief efforts after Hurricane Florence. But whether they’re large or small, these donations are extraordinarily generous and generally altruistic. They help strangers without expecting anything in return.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com/american-generosity-after-disasters-4-questions-answered-83277">Sept. 11, 2017</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103215/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Rooney and the Lilly Family School of Philanthropy receives funding from numerous charities, foundations, and donors. He serves on numerous boards, task forces, and advisory committees for charities. </span></em></p>Donations to relief efforts tend to dry up within a few months.Patrick Rooney, Executive Associate Dean for Academic Programs, Professor of Economics and Philanthropic Studies, IUPUILicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1030692018-09-13T10:46:13Z2018-09-13T10:46:13ZWant to help after hurricanes? Give cash, not diapers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236086/original/file-20180912-133898-1jgk1n4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Roberto Clemente State Park employees in New York, with donated bottled water bottles bound for Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Hurricane-Maria-New-York-Connection/0d0cca3f42f34669a37cae9bae58aed7/6/0">AP Photo/Julie Jacobson</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Some <a href="https://www.yorkdispatch.com/story/news/2018/09/10/bailey-coach-collecting-supplies-hurricane-florence-relief/1257391002/">companies</a> and <a href="https://wlos.com/news/local/florence-relief-mountain-volunteers-ask-for-donations-as-they-ready-supplies-for-coast">community</a> <a href="http://www.wtol.com/story/39065450/impact-with-hope-collecting-supplies-for-hurricane-florence-relief">groups</a> didn’t wait for Hurricane Florence to make landfall before organizing donation drives. </p>
<p>But as a researcher with the <a href="http://hhi.harvard.edu/">Harvard Humanitarian Initiative</a>, an interdisciplinary center at Harvard University dedicated to relieving human suffering in wartime and disasters by analyzing and improving the way professionals and communities respond to emergencies, I wish they would have.</p>
<p>I’ve studied dozens of disasters, from <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/10/us/puerto-rico-aid.html">Hurricane Maria</a> and <a href="http://www.npr.org/2013/01/09/168946170/thanks-but-no-thanks-when-post-disaster-donations-overwhelm">Superstorm Sandy</a> to the <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-disaster-relief-brings-anything-but-relief/">South Asian tsunami</a> and one thing is clear: In-kind donations of items such as food, clothing, toiletries and diapers are often the last thing that is needed in disaster-affected areas. </p>
<p>Delivering things that people need on the ground simply doesn’t help disaster-struck communities as much as giving them – and relief organizations – money to buy what they need. What’s more, truckloads of blue jeans and cases of Lunchables can actually <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2013/11/how_to_help_typhoon_haiyan_survivors_in_the_philippines_the_only_donation.html">interfere with official relief efforts</a>.</p>
<p>If you want to do the greatest good, send money.</p>
<h2>What’s wrong with in-kind donations</h2>
<p>As humanitarian workers and volunteers have witnessed after disasters like Haiti’s 2010 earthquake and Southeast Asia’s Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, <a href="http://www.atha.se/blog/search-international-disaster-law">disaster relief efforts</a> repeatedly provide lessons in good intentions gone wrong.</p>
<p>At best, in-kind donations augment official efforts and provide the locals with some additional comfort, especially when those donations come from nearby. When <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/national/ExecSum.pdf?mcubz=3">various levels of government failed</a> to meet the needs of Hurricane Katrina victims, for example, <a href="http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d06297t.pdf">community, faith-based and private sector organizations</a> stepped in to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1847489/">fill many of the gaps</a>.</p>
<p>How can in-kind donations cause more harm than good? Donated goods <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/thanks-but-no-thanks-unwanted-goods-flood-disaster-struck-developing-countries-89458">raise the cost</a> of the response cycle: from collecting, sorting, packaging and shipping bulky items across long distances to, upon arrival, reception, sorting, warehousing and distribution.</p>
<p>Delivering this aid is tough in disaster areas since <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/28/554297787/puerto-rico-relief-goods-sit-undistributed-at-ports">transportation infrastructure</a>, such as airports, seaports, roads and bridges, are likely to be, if not damaged or incapacitated by the initial disaster, already clogged by the surge of incoming first responders, relief shipments and equipment.</p>
<p>This is especially the case in places like the Outer Banks, a string of barrier islands off North Carolina’s coast, where the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/vulnerable-outer-banks-brace-worst-approaching-hurricane-florence-n908521">challenges</a> of bringing relief goods in, and distributing them to people who need supplies, are heightened by geography. </p>
<h2>Dumping grounds</h2>
<p>At worst, disaster zones become <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-disaster-relief-brings-anything-but-relief/">dumping grounds</a> for <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2013/11/how_to_help_typhoon_haiyan_survivors_in_the_philippines_the_only_donation.html">inappropriate goods</a> that delay actual relief efforts and harm local economies.</p>
<p>After the 2004 South Asian tsunami, shipping containers full of <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2013/11/how_to_help_typhoon_haiyan_survivors_in_the_philippines_the_only_donation.html">ill-suited items</a> such as used high-heeled shoes, ski gear and expired medications poured into the affected countries. This junk clogged ports and roads, polluting already ravaged areas and <a href="https://hbr.org/2006/11/disaster-relief-inc">diverting personnel</a>, trucks and storage facilities from actual relief efforts.</p>
<p>After the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, many untrained and uninvited American volunteers bringing unnecessary goods ended up <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/34958965/ns/world_news-haiti/t/disaster-do-gooders-can-actually-hinder-help/#.Waq6YdOGPeQ">needing assistance themselves</a>.</p>
<p>In-kind donations often not only fail to help those in actual need but cause congestion, tie up resources and further hurt local economies when dumped on the market, as <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/78/Fisher.pdf">research</a> from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies determined.</p>
<p>Research confirms that a significant portion of aid dispatched to disaster areas is “<a href="http://www.paho.org/disasters/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=652:humanitarian-supply-management-and-logistics-in-the-health-sector&Itemid=924&lang=en">non-priority</a>,” inappropriate or useless. </p>
<p>One study led by <a href="http://www.wctrs.leeds.ac.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/abstracts/rio/general/1746.pdf">José Holguín-Veras</a>, a Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute expert on humanitarian logistics, found that 50 percent to 70 percent of the goods that arrive during these emergencies should never have been sent and interfere with recovery efforts. After the 2011 Joplin, Missouri, tornado and the Tōhoku, Japan, earthquake, for example, excessive donations of <a href="http://transp.rpi.edu/%7EHUM-LOG/Doc/Vault/humlog.pdf">clothing and blankets</a> tied up relief personnel.</p>
<p>Relief workers consider these well-meaning but inconvenient donations as a “<a href="http://www.newsweek.com/75-million-stuff-148091">second-tier disaster</a>” due to the disruption they cause.</p>
<h2>What else can you do?</h2>
<p>Instead of shipping your hand-me-downs, donate money to trusted and established organizations with extensive experience and expertise – and local ties.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-select-a-disaster-relief-charity-83928">Give to groups</a> that make it clear where the money will go. Choose relief efforts that will procure supplies near the disaster area, which will help the local economy recover. You can also consult organizations like <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/">Charity Navigator</a> that evaluate charities’ financial performance.</p>
<p>Many humanitarian aid organizations themselves have increasingly adopted cash-based approaches in recent years, though money remains a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/jan/22/cash-transfers-only-6-of-humanitarian-spending-whats-the-hold-up">small share</a> of overall humanitarian aid worldwide.</p>
<p>Evaluations of the effectiveness of <a href="http://www.cashlearning.org/resources/library/1106-cash-based-approaches-in-humanitarian-emergencies-a-systematic-review-april-2016">such programs vary</a> and are <a href="http://pubs.iied.org/10759IIED/">context-dependent</a>. Nonetheless, <a href="https://www.odi.org/publications/9454-state-evidence-humanitarian-cash-transfers">emerging evidence suggests</a> that disbursing cash is often the best way to help people in disaster zones get the food and shelter they need.</p>
<p>What’s more, the World Food Program and the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees say that <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/examining-protection-and-gender-cash-and-voucher-transfers-case-studies-world-food">people affected by disasters tend to prefer</a> cash over in-kind aid due to the <a href="https://www.odi.org/publications/7406-cash-transfers-social-protection-community-participatory-development">dignity, control and flexibility</a> it gives them. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1039917850285301760"}"></div></p>
<h2>Some exceptions</h2>
<p>There are a few notable exceptions to this advice on avoiding in-kind donations. </p>
<p>If you live in or near the affected area, it is helpful to consider dropping the specific items victims are requesting at local food banks, shelters and other community organizations. Just make sure that the items won’t perish by the time they can be distributed. For areas in Hurricane Florence’s path, for instance, the Red Cross has requested <a href="https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/news/2018/red-cross-prepares-to-help-people-in-path-of-typhoon--hurricanes.html">blood donations</a>.</p>
<p>Charity is a virtue. Particularly when disaster strikes, the urge to help is admirable. Yet this impulse should be channeled to do the greatest good. So please, if you would like to help from afar, let the professionals procure goods and services. Instead, donate money and listen to what people on the ground say they need.</p>
<p>And don’t stop giving after the disaster stops making headlines. A full recovery will take time and support long after the emergency responders and camera crews have moved on.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-giving-cash-not-clothing-is-usually-best-after-disasters-83405">Sept. 4, 2017</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103069/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Brooks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If you would like to assist from afar, let the professionals procure goods and services.Julia Brooks, Researcher in international law and humanitarian response, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI), Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1030582018-09-12T18:46:34Z2018-09-12T18:46:34ZWhat is flood insurance and why the system is broken: 6 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236092/original/file-20180912-133877-1n9qad0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">High tides, whipped in by Hurricane Hazel in 1954, shattered boats and buildings in Swansboro, N.C.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Tropical-Storms-Carolinas/b64046ffe46546e58ce4a10b2021697e/1/0">AP Photo, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: Homeowners generally rely on insurance provided by the federal government to cover the costs of rebuilding their lives after a flood. We asked an insurance expert to explain the government program and its challenges.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is flood insurance?</h2>
<p>Homeowners’ insurance does not cover damage to a home caused by flooding. A homeowner must have a separate policy to cover flood-related losses, defined as water traveling along or under the ground.</p>
<p>Most such policies are underwritten by the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, which is part of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The program was established in 1968 to address the lack of availability of flood insurance in the private market and reduce demand for federal disaster assistance. It also contains <a href="https://www.fema.gov/floodplain-management-requirements">provisions</a> intended to reduce flood risk.</p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program’s activities are funded largely by the premiums and fees paid by its policyholders, supplemented by a little from the federal budget to help pay for flood risk mapping. Because the program serves the public interest, <a href="https://morningconsult.com/opinions/save-national-flood-insurance-investing-nature/">some</a> believe that more of its funding for flood risk management should be borne by taxpayers. </p>
<p>Homeowners can purchase a federal flood policy directly from the program or through a private insurer. Separately, some private insurers sell their own flood policies on a limited basis for properties that are overcharged by the government’s program.</p>
<h2>2. How many homeowners have flood insurance?</h2>
<p>It is difficult to determine exactly how many homeowners have flood insurance. </p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/policy-claim-statistics-flood-insurance">had just over 5 million policies in force</a> as of May 31. Of these policies, approximately 69 percent were on single-family homes and 21 percent on condo units. There is no source on how many private flood policies are in force, but my sense is that it is comparatively small.</p>
<p>In recent years, the number of such policies has been dropping across the country over concerns about the cost and an underestimation of the risks. Some of the counties hardest hit by Hurricane Harvey in 2017, for example, such as Harris (which includes Houston), <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/flood-policies-plunge-houston-years-harvey-49513946">have experienced significant declines</a>. </p>
<p>A more revealing – and <a href="https://bsa.nfipstat.fema.gov/reports/1011.htm">more difficult to ascertain</a> – stat is the share of homeowners in a disaster area who actually have flood insurance. In Harris County, for example, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/consumer-flood-insurance-wake-hurricane-harvey/story?id=49535161">experts estimate</a> that only about 15 percent of homeowners were insured for floods – though the percentage is likely higher in areas near coastlines.</p>
<p>Real estate data company <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/news/wildfires-and-hurricane-related-floods-were-most-destructive-natural-hazards-in-2017.aspx">CoreLogic</a> estimated that approximately 75 percent of flood losses from Harvey were uninsured, a figure that rises to about 80 percent for Hurricane Irma.</p>
<p><iframe id="gj7WL" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gj7WL/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>3. Why do people at great risk forgo insurance?</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://riskcenter.wharton.upenn.edu/publications/">number of factors</a> affect a homeowner’s decision to buy flood insurance – or not. </p>
<p>People who perceive that their exposure to floods is high are more likely to buy it, all other things equal. While a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/faq-details/Mandatory-Purchase-of-NFIP-Coverage/">mandatory purchase requirement</a> is intended to force owners of mortgaged homes in areas at high risk of flooding to buy insurance, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-13/hurricanes-highlight-failure-to-enforce-flood-insurance-rules">it’s estimated</a> that only about half of them do. </p>
<p>One reason might be that 43 percent of homeowners <a href="http://www.iii.org/sites/default/files/docs/pdf/pulse-wp-020217-final.pdf">incorrectly believe</a> that their homeowners’ insurance covers them for flood losses.</p>
<p>Other factors also come into play, such as a lack of information, the difficulty of calculating flood risk and the expectation that the government will provide disaster assistance that will fully cover a homeowner’s uninsured flood losses – which is in fact <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/business/harvey-aid-sba-disaster-loans.html?mcubz=1&_r=0">rarely the case</a>.</p>
<h2>4. What does flood insurance cover?</h2>
<p>With a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1620-20490-4648/f_679_summaryofcoverage_11_2012.pdf">National Flood Insurance Program policy</a>, a homeowner can purchase coverage on a dwelling up to US$250,000 and the contents of a home up to $100,000. It does not cover costs associated with “loss of use” of a home. </p>
<p>These limits have been in effect since 1994 and are no longer high enough to account for the increase in the replacement cost of homes and the actual cash value of their contents. As a result, some homeowners buy additional flood protection from private insurers to make up any shortfall. </p>
<h2>5. Why is the federal program underwater?</h2>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684354.pdf">has faced considerable criticism</a> over its underwriting and pricing of policies, which have resulted in a substantial debt. Essentially, its premiums are not high enough to cover how much it pays out on claims and its other costs. </p>
<p>Part of the problem is that <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1382115115666-0fba8b9a68fef69d546513c6da105bbe/BW12_AgentWhat_to_Know_Say_Sect205_Sept2013.pdf">about 20 percent of the properties</a> the program insures pay a subsidized rate. But many other National Flood Insurance Program policyholders are also paying premiums <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/08/29/key-flood-insurance-underwriter-sinks-further-into-debt-as-harvey-slams-texas.html">substantially less</a> than what it costs to insure them because the rates do not adequately account for the catastrophic losses incurred during years when more major storms than normal strike, such as Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Sandy in 2012. </p>
<p>To show how much single storms can cost, the National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/significant-flood-events">paid out $8.7 billion</a> to cover Harvey-related flood losses, $16.3 billion for Katrina and $8.8 billion for Sandy. </p>
<p>These inadequate rates also exacerbate the <a href="http://blogs.colgate.edu/economics/files/2014/09/McGee-2014-Moral-Hazard-and-the-National-Flood-Insurance-Program.pdf">moral hazard created by flood insurance</a>. People are more likely to buy, build or rebuild homes in flood-prone areas and have diminished incentives to invest in flood risk mitigation, such as by elevating their home, if they can buy insurance at below-cost rates. </p>
<p>Although Congress <a href="https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20171027/NEWS06/912316843/Trump-signs-disaster-relief-bill-forgiving-16-billion-dollars-NFIP-debt">forgave</a> $16 billion in debt last year, the National Flood Insurance Program still owed <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/fio/Documents/FACIFebruary2018_FEMA.pdf">$20.5 billion</a> to the U.S. Treasury as of February. </p>
<p><iframe id="hnDTa" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hnDTa/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Hurricane Florence and other storms that may follow will substantially increase this debt – and may require more forgiveness.</p>
<h2>6. What can be done to fix the program?</h2>
<p>Legislative efforts to reform the National Flood Insurance Program to put it on firmer fiscal footing have produced mixed results. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/31946">Biggert-Waters Act of 2012</a> made a number of changes to the program, such as increasing premiums, to make it “<a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1912-25045-9380/bw12_qa_04_2013.pdf">more financially stable</a>.” While that would have gone a long way to restore its fiscal solvency, an outcry from homeowners in high-risk areas led to the 2014 <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/collections/414">Homeowners Flood Insurance Affordability Act</a>, which limited or rescinded many of the Biggert-Waters rate increases. </p>
<p>Currently, there is a <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/2874/text">bill</a> in Congress that would fix some but not all of the problems with the program, such as by making it easier for private companies to sell their own policies and tightening the rules for properties that suffer repetitive losses.</p>
<p>But its prospects are dim to opposition from legislators concerned about some of its changes, particularly its rate increases and the repetitive loss provision.</p>
<p>Fundamentally, the program millions of Americans rely on to help them rebuild their lives after a devastating flood <a href="http://www.rff.org/research/collection/reforming-national-flood-insurance-program">needs to be fixed</a>. Its dire financial straits could be resolved by either making taxpayers foot more of the bill or increasing premiums closer to full-cost rates for most homeowners, while also raising total coverage levels.</p>
<p>At the same time, I believe the government needs to do more to convince or compel more at-risk homeowners to buy flood insurance – which would be harder to do if it were to raise rates. To me, this suggests that increasing taxpayer support for the the program will have to be part of the solution so that pricey premiums don’t become a deterrent to someone buying insurance. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-flood-insurance-works-6-questions-answered-83187">article</a> originally published on Sept. 7, 2017</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert W. Klein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Hurricane Florence is expected to pound the Carolinas with significant flooding, an insurance expert explains how the program designed to help the millions affected recover.Robert W. Klein, Director, Center for RMI Research, Associate Professor, Risk Management and Insurance, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1014962018-08-24T10:42:15Z2018-08-24T10:42:15ZIf you shelter in place during a disaster, be ready for challenges after the storm<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233296/original/file-20180823-149472-x33evn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Homes surrounded by water from the flooded Brazos River in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in Freeport, Texas, Sept. 1, 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Slower-Hurricanes/75cd2d8061e240519f445d9ad0e11c64/371/0">AP Photo/Charlie Riedel</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many people will likely decide to stay put despite evacuation orders ahead of Hurricane Florence. And if history is any guide, they may not be fully thinking through the problems they’ll face in the aftermath. </p>
<p>I conducted a research survey in Harris County, Texas, which contains much of metro Houston, after the city was flooded by Hurricane Harvey in August 2017, and found a common thread. Few respondents who stayed in place during the storm planned in advance for coping with extended service interruptions, such as road closures, power and water outages and communications interruptions. </p>
<p>I am a civil engineer and study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DFNvQPYAAAAJ&hl=en">interactions between people and infrastructure</a> in <a href="https://www.urbanresilience-lab.com/">disasters</a>. In this survey I wanted to understand how different sub-populations prepare for and adjust to service disruptions during these events. </p>
<p>Hurricanes don’t always prompt mandatory evacuations, and even when they do, <a href="https://theconversation.com/thousands-of-people-didnt-evacuate-before-hurricane-matthew-why-not-66724">many people choose not to go</a>. My results show that planning for <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/23/us/hurricane-lane-hawaii-wxc/index.html">losing key services, potentially for days or weeks</a>, should be part of preparing to weather storms in place. And cities should keep their most vulnerable residents in mind as they make decisions about storm-proofing critical infrastructure systems, such as power and water.</p>
<h2>No electricity, no phone, no toilet</h2>
<p>Harvey flooded sewers, closed roads, downed power lines and interrupted telecommunications services across southeast Texas. Unlike tornadoes, which can selectively level one neighborhood and leave another unscathed, hurricanes are perversely egalitarian. In Houston, tony and disadvantaged neighborhoods alike bore the brunt of Harvey. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Road closures in Houston during Harvey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ali Mostafavi</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most residents in hurricane-prone areas know to store food, stock up on water, check their flashlights and radios and plan for evacuations. But I found that relatively few Houstonians were ready for infrastructure service disruptions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Self-reported hardships due to power outages during Harvey.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My survey was conducted three month after Harvey and included 750 Harris County residents. They rated sewer, water, electricity and communications as the most important household services, and found sewage backing up into homes from overwhelmed public water systems to be the most onerous disruption. Even households with individual on-site septic systems experienced septic tank overflow due to flooding. </p>
<p>Loss of potable water, which affected hygiene, drinking and food preparation, was the next greatest hardship. Electricity and telecommunications outages tied for third place, followed by road closures due to fallen trees, debris and flooding.</p>
<p>My students and I found that 53 percent of the people we surveyed were not well prepared for service disruption. Even the 47 percent who had laid in provisions to weather the storm had not thought specifically about service outages. Most people who self-identified as prepared underestimated the extent and length of service disruptions, and many ran out of stored food and water. A whopping 80 percent of households who were without power after the storm had not even considered the possibility of extended outages. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Self-reported hardships due to road closures during Harvey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ali Mostafavi</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Most affected: Low-income and minority households, families with young children</h2>
<p>Regardless of how well cities harden their infrastructure, service disruptions are inevitable during and after major hurricanes. Once residents accept that fact, they can adopt practical strategies for weathering storms in place. </p>
<p>Families that live outside of hurricane paths or flood plains can still experience extended disruptions – for example, if high winds damage power distribution networks, or local roads are blocked by downed trees. It is critical for households to understand the likelihood of service disruptions, assess their basic needs objectively and prepare for possible extended outages. </p>
<p>Our research showed that some population groups were especially vulnerable to losing specific services. Households with children 10 and younger self-reported that losing electricity was the most onerous hardship for them, since it made it impossible for them to refrigerate and prepare food. On the other hand, respondents age 65 and older reported that road closures were their greatest burden because they could not drive to work, grocery stores, health care facilities or pharmacies.</p>
<p>We also found that low-income residents and racial and ethnic minorities were less prepared overall and experienced greater hardship during post-Harvey service losses. Disaster researchers widely view these groups as vulnerable populations, since they have fewer resources to prepare or adapt to disruptions.</p>
<p>Interestingly, we found that seniors over 65 were better prepared to endure sewer, water and telecommunications losses after Harvey. For many of them prior experience with storms had instilled the value of preparation, and on the whole they were ready for the impending storm.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2Y4FiwPsQmo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Some people choose to shelter in place during disasters because they cannot afford to leave their homes for unknown destinations.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Hardening infrastructure with people in mind</h2>
<p>Houston is investing in a swath of flood control and flood risk reduction projects. Notably, on Aug. 25 the city adopted a <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/hurricaneharvey/article/Harris-County-voters-pass-2-5-billion-flood-bond-13182842.php">$2.5 billion bond measure to overhaul the region’s flood-protection system.</a>. </p>
<p>Protecting homes is important, but cities should also invest in hardening infrastructure systems, such as power and water lines, to support residents who shelter in place during storms. Local communities can handle some of these upgrades. For instance, some Houston neighborhoods lost internet connectivity for as long as six weeks due to submerged utility boxes housing network electronics. This problem could be solved by raising the boxes above potential flood levels. </p>
<p>Identifying and hardening infrastructure components, such as power sub-stations and wastewater treatment plants, that are highly vulnerable to future storms is a critical task for utilities and city planners. Also, recognizing and protecting vulnerable sub-populations who are most affected by service outages should be a priority.</p>
<p>As households prepare for an storm, consideration of possible power outages, sewer backup, and road closures should factor into their decisions about evacuating or sheltering in place. If they stay, they should not underestimate the likelihood of service disruptions. No one likes to lose power or internet, but imagining the possibility of extended service outages and the resulting hardship can help households prepare and cope with the disruptions. </p>
<p><em>Ph.D. student Amir Esmalian and technical writer Jan Gerston contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101496/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ali Mostafavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many people board up their houses and stay in place during disasters – but often they aren’t prepared to go without water, power or transportation for days or weeks afterward.Ali Mostafavi, Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/991782018-08-23T10:45:21Z2018-08-23T10:45:21ZA year after Hurricane Harvey, some Texans are using outdated flood risk maps to rebuild<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232974/original/file-20180822-149496-16vdha9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Businesses in Humble, Texas, part of metropolitan Houston, surrounded by floodwater from Hurricane Harvey, August 29, 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Harvey-Houston-Economic-Impact/8663935e0cd64c2dab06d89f86199693/581/0">AP Photo/David J. Phillip, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One year ago, on August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey struck Texas – the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Harvey">Wilma in 2005</a>. Harvey dumped record-breaking <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-made-the-rain-in-hurricane-harvey-so-extreme-83137">rain</a> and flooded hundreds of thousands of homes in and around Houston. It caused some <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092017_Harvey.pdf">US$125 billion in damages</a>, making it one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history. </p>
<p>But human choices played a role. Before Harvey, Houston was widely known as a model of <a href="https://qz.com/1064364/hurricane-harvey-houstons-flooding-made-worse-by-unchecked-urban-development-and-wetland-destruction/">unchecked urban development</a>. With <a href="https://kinder.rice.edu/2015/09/08/forget-what-youve-heard-houston-really-does-have-zoning-sort-of">no formal zoning or comprehensive plan</a>, developers were allowed to turn virtually any land, including wetlands, into houses and shopping malls. The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), unintentionally encouraged intense development by offering <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-flood-insurance-works-6-questions-answered-83187">coverage in flood-prone areas at below-cost rates</a>.</p>
<p>Harvey’s impacts in Houston provide an ideal case study for unsustainable human-environment interaction. After last year’s flooding, it would be logical to expect affected communities to rethink long-term hazard management and risk reduction. </p>
<p>In fact, I see the opposite happening. In just one example, officials in the city of Friendswood (part of greater Houston) are allowing some residents to rebuild their homes based on <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/After-Harvey-s-floods-Houston-area-city-will-12540769.php">outdated flood risk maps</a> that greatly underestimate the risk of future floods. This avoids requirements such as elevating houses and buying flood insurance. I believe choosing to rely on faulty information, driven by short-term financial concerns, will increase long-term risks for many Houstonians. </p>
<h2>The message of FEMA flood maps</h2>
<p>Much discussion about the troubled National Flood Insurance Program has centered on its <a href="https://www.gao.gov/highrisk/national_flood_insurance/why_did_study">artificially low premiums</a>. FEMA’s flood risk maps receive less attention, but are a powerful risk communication tool. </p>
<p>FEMA produces these maps for more than 20,000 communities that participate in the insurance program. They <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1516468489259-8eb4bfef27ab35159b2f140a2926e809/What_Goes_Into_a_Flood_Map.pdf">determine insurance rates, inform local regulations and communicate risks to communities</a> </p>
<p>On the maps, Special Flood Hazard Areas identify zones with a one percent chance of flooding in any given year. Since this translates to 100 percent odds of flooding at least once in a century, these areas often are referred to as 100-year flood zones (creating the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/">misleading impression</a> that they will only flood once a century). Homeowners there must buy flood insurance in order to qualify for federally regulated or guaranteed loans.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flood risk map for Multnomah County, Oregon, based on FEMA hazard assessment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.oregonriskmap.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=featured&Itemid=139">Oregon DCLD</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using surveys and geographic data, I have shown that flood maps significantly affect <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2016.11.021">voluntary decisions to purchase flood insurance</a>. Working with other social scientists and engineers, I found that people who live in communities with a large percentage of 100-year flood zones are more likely to buy flood insurance, even when they are not required to do so. </p>
<p>How do these maps convey risk? Using websites such as <a href="https://www.floodsmart.gov/">Floodsmart.gov</a>, users can view the flood maps and see threats to their properties and surrounding areas. FEMA also works with local governments to educate residents about flood risks. A civil engineer who worked for the city of Huntsville, Alabama told me that he used the maps to point out relative risks to homeowners:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I’ll say, ‘Do you have flood insurance? You don’t have to – your house isn’t in [a 100-year flood zone] – but you do have one-percent annual chance floodplain on the back of your property. It’s close to where you are, so you have more risk of flooding than somebody further away.’” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>When homeowners elevate or flood-proof their homes or purchase flood insurance, they may also <a href="http://resolver.ebscohost.com/openurl?sid=google&auinit=P&aulast=Bubeck&atitle=Detailed+insights+into+the+influence+of+flood-coping+appraisals+on+mitigation+behaviour&id=doi%3a10.1016%2fj.gloenvcha.2013.05.009&title=Global+Environmental+Change%3a+Human+and+Policy+Dimensions&volume=23&issue=5&date=2013&spage=1327&site=ftf-live">influence neighbors to take similar steps</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/laeLaNcYVEQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Some Houstonians who are not required to elevate their homes are choosing to do so.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Undercutting FEMA’s message</h2>
<p>FEMA’s maps can be a double-edged sword. If they are inaccurate, they may mislead users. </p>
<p>And the maps have widely-recognized flaws. They do a poor job of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-fema-faulty-flood-maps/">accounting for changing conditions</a>. For instance, FEMA often assigns low flood risk to locations that are near coasts but slightly elevated, due to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-015-1937-x">insufficient wave modeling to account for storm surge risk</a>. This can give residents in those zones a false sense of security. And the maps do not analyze how risks vary within flood zones, or between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12068">coastal and inland locations.</a>. </p>
<p>FEMA is required to assess whether the maps need updating maps every five years. But a recent Congressional Budget Office report found that two-thirds of counties with high flood-related claims <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/53028-supplementalmaterial.pdf">had maps that were more than five years old</a>. The update process is time-consuming, with a <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R45099.pdf">lengthy statutory consultation and appeals process</a>. </p>
<p>Even if communities have more recent data, FEMA <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/After-Harvey-s-floods-Houston-area-city-will-12540769.php">will not publish a partial update</a>. This explains why Friendswood – which has an updated flood map for some land within its limits, created after Tropical Storm Allison in 2007 – can revert to a 20-year-old FEMA map to guide post-Harvey rebuilding.</p>
<h2>Downplaying risks</h2>
<p>Friendswood is just one example of Houston officials downplaying flood risks. FEMA maps are developed and updated in partnership with communities; in recent years the agency has allowed Houston developers to revise local flood maps through steps such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/02/us/houston-flood-zone-hurricane-harvey.html">dumping tons of fill to raise neighborhoods above the flood plain</a> – sometimes just by inches. </p>
<p>Today, a developer in Friendswood is planning to build a shopping center in the Clear Creek floodway – the zone around the creek where most of the water flows – <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/After-Hurricane-Harvey-Friendswood-residents-12959848.php">on top of trucked-in dirt</a>. In the past decade, some 1,400 structures have been <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/What-s-in-a-floodway-In-Houston-20-000-12409821.php?utm_campaign=twitter-premium&utm_source=CMS%2520Sharing%2520Button&utm_medium=social">permitted in and around Houston in floodways</a>.</p>
<p>A pro-building, pro-expansion mentality still permeates the city. Despite <a href="https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/city-of-houston/2018/04/30/282321/turner-and-council-members-emphasize-subdivision-facing-opposition-meets-all-requirements-some-disagree/">opposition from some residents and local media</a>, Houston’s City Council unanimously approved a plan in April 2018 to <a href="https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/City-Council-unanimously-backs-plan-to-build-12863712.php">build 900 homes in a west Houston flood plain</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A floodway is land along a creek, stream or river that conveys most of the water, so flow is deepest, fastest and most dangerous.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bouldercounty.org/transportation/floodplain-mapping/frequently-asked-questions/">Boulder County, Colorado</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Houston is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-houston-housing-feature/houston-still-rebuilding-from-2017-floods-as-new-hurricane-season-arrives-idUSKCN1IX48C">taking some steps to reduce flood risks</a>, such as buying out houses that have routinely flooded and requiring other owners to elevate their homes. Nonetheless, these pro-development examples are troubling. </p>
<p>According to one recent study, the extreme amounts of rain that fell on Houston during Harvey <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000825">resulted from unprecedented ocean heat content</a>. In other words, it was exacerbated by human-induced climate change. In a climate where temperatures are projected to increase in the future, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716222114">hurricane-induced coastal flooding will be more frequent and intense</a>. </p>
<p>My recent research shows that even with their flaws, FEMA flood maps influence decisions to purchase flood insurance and overall support for flood mitigation. Policy makers need to seriously consider how to accurately communicate increasing flood risks to the public. Reverting to old flood maps and granting variances to promote development is a recipe for more disasters down the road.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wanyun Shao receives funding from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Gulf Research Program.</span></em></p>Hurricane Harvey swamped much of Houston in 2017, causing more damage than all other US hurricanes except Katrina. But now the city is authorizing construction in zones at high risk for flooding.Wanyun Shao, Assistant Professor of Geography, University of AlabamaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/906092018-03-30T10:52:56Z2018-03-30T10:52:56ZHow Texas is ‘building back better’ from Hurricane Harvey<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205609/original/file-20180208-180826-1i4xwoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Harvey flooded one-third of Houston and displaced more then 30,000 people in the region.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Janelle Rios</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For most Americans, the one-two punch of last fall’s hurricanes is ancient history. But hard-hit communities in Texas, Florida and the Caribbean are still rebuilding.</p>
<p>I recently traveled with public health students from the University of Washington to southeast Texas, where the impacts of Hurricane Harvey last August are still felt today. With support from the <a href="https://hazards.colorado.edu/research/quick-response">Natural Hazards Center’s Quick Response Grant Program</a>, we wanted to understand how disaster recovery strategies can create long-term opportunities to promote healthy communities. </p>
<p>Through interviews with local health officials, we learned how Hurricane Harvey is still affecting many residents. As we often see during natural disasters, Harvey amplified pre-existing health and social stresses and inequities. </p>
<p>For example, greater Houston had only a paltry pre-storm <a href="https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/03/27/275635/houston-has-large-backlog-in-affordable-housing/">supply of affordable housing</a>. Now buyers and renters are competing to secure undamaged units. We heard about families who were living in homes with toxic mold because they couldn’t afford to leave, and concerns that rising prices would drive people out on the street or force them to move to other cities and states. However, we also saw signs that communities were using Hurricane Harvey to springboard efforts to address persistent housing problems. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey in southeast Texas, August 31, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.147atkw.ang.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1304518/guarding-texas-state-federal-agencies-respond-to-harvey/">Staff Sgt. Daniel J. Martinez, Air National Guard</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Turning disasters into opportunities</h2>
<p>The default response after a major disaster is often to rebuild as quickly as possible. This typically means replicating what existed before the storm. But why not build back in a way that corrects long-standing problems? </p>
<p>Major disasters like Hurricane Harvey often bring <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2018/01/04/four-months-after-hurricane-harvey-four-major-questions-about-recovery/">influxes of resources and attention</a> to communities that are struggling with health and social challenges. In a 2015 <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/18996/healthy-resilient-and-sustainable-communities-after-disasters-strategies-opportunities-and">report</a>, the Institute of Medicine found that many communities fail to fully leverage recovery resources to address pre-existing issues, such as access to health care. </p>
<p>The report urged communities to consider short- and long-term health impacts of their recovery decisions, known as a “<a href="https://www.apha.org/topics-and-issues/health-in-all-policies">health in all policies</a>” approach to recovery. This approach recognizes that health is connected to many other issues, including transportation, social networks and housing. By thinking about the health impacts of recovery strategies, municipal leaders can rebuild in a way that promotes stronger and more resilient communities. </p>
<p>For example, co-locating mental health professionals at sites where people are signing up for FEMA aid can help more residents get counseling and support. In the long term, decisions about land use in badly damaged neighborhoods can create spaces where people can exercise and socialize, which helps them to lead healthier and happier lives.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Planning for disasters should include identifying those most likely to need help.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/XT9jZ3">Jill Carlson</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Leveraging local expertise to build back better</h2>
<p>The idea of incorporating health in all policies may sound sensible, but putting it into action after a hurricane, wildfire or tornado strike is easier said than done. As a former emergency manager in Baltimore, I know that working conditions after disasters are fast-paced and often chaotic. Communities are under political and social pressure to recover quickly, and health may not be at the top of their agendas. </p>
<p>Advance planning for recovery is important. And involving people who understand challenges to community health and well-being is essential. Local health departments, as well as community- and faith-based organizations, are often connected to at-risk populations. Involving these organizations in recovery planning and implementation can inform an approach that promotes community health and well-being. For example, they can identify opportunities to use recovery resources to meet pre-existing housing needs, or direct case management services to families that are already struggling. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"969331833732202496"}"></div></p>
<h2>Building healthier post-Harvey</h2>
<p>Harvey caused <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/UpdatedCostliest.pdf">US$125 billion in damages</a>, making it the second-worst storm to strike the U.S. mainland after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The storm flooded one-third of Houston, displacing <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/texas-officials-hurricane-harvey-death-toll-at-82-mass-casualties-have-absolutely-not-happened/2017/09/14/bff3ffea-9975-11e7-87fc-c3f7ee4035c9_story.html?utm_term=.01924918fda7">more than 30,000 people</a> from their homes.</p>
<p>During our trip to Texas we saw that pre-disaster recovery planning was paying off. As an example, <a href="http://www.fortbendrecovers.org/about/">Fort Bend Recovers</a> was established in Fort Bend County, which covers 885 square miles in the Houston metro area, after <a href="https://www.chron.com/houston/article/Remembering-Houston-s-Memorial-Day-floods-7944644.php">major flooding</a> on Memorial Day in 2016. </p>
<p>In Harvey’s wake, plans developed by Fort Bend Recovers created a process for organizations, including local health and social services agencies, to rapidly reconvene to respond to community needs. Together they offered case management services, staffed mental health support lines, and convened emotional support groups. Such services can help individuals affected by the floods find housing and supplies, but also connect them with solutions for longer-term problems, such as finding affordable medical care. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SknXSNjeKrU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Lasting impacts in New York City a year after 2012’s Superstorm Sandy.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Hurricane season 2018 is coming</h2>
<p>In order to truly “build back better,” states and communities need to develop a plan for recovery in advance of the next disaster. Galveston County, on Texas’ Gulf Coast, is using its Hurricane Harvey recovery experience to formalize a <a href="https://www.galvestoncountyrecovers.org/">Long Term Recovery Group</a> that brings together the local health department and other community- and faith-based organizations to address community health needs. But we also heard about other communities that still don’t have a plan or mechanism for organizing recovery. </p>
<p>With support from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s <a href="http://rwjf-newconnections.org/about-us/">New Connections Program</a>, my research team is now reviewing state disaster recovery plans nationwide. We plan to identify whether and how states use the disaster recovery period to build back better. We hope to highlight recovery strategies that promote equitable access to affordable and safe housing, health care, and places and spaces that encourage healthy activity and foster social connections.</p>
<p>As climate change <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-climate-change-really-improved-u-s-weather-58269">amplifies storms, floods and other extreme weather events</a>, U.S. communities can expect more frequent and severe natural disasters in the years to come. By recognizing and planning for opportunities to build back better, they can make themselves more resilient against the next disaster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole Errett receives funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's New Connections Program.</span></em></p>After disasters, communities often push to rebuild as quickly as possible. A public health expert says they should aim higher and fix problems that exist pre-storm.Nicole Errett, Lecturer in Environmental and Occupational Health, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/910492018-02-14T11:34:48Z2018-02-14T11:34:48ZCaribbean residents see climate change as a severe threat but most in US don’t — here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206036/original/file-20180212-58322-hmro4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People in the U.S. and the Caribbean share vulnerability to climate change-related disasters, but only in the Caribbean is the public truly worried. Why?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.doncio.navy.mil/FileHandler.ashx?id=10786">US Navy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the 2017 <a href="http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season-finally-ends">Atlantic basin hurricane season</a>, six major storms – all of which were Category 3 or higher – produced devastating human, material and financial devastation across the southern United States and the Caribbean. </p>
<p>Last year’s above-average storm activity was foreseeable. Hurricane intensity ticked up in <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/summary_atlc_2016.pdf">2016</a> and scientists have predicted this trend will hold as <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php">global temperatures continue to rise</a>. </p>
<p>Though people in the U.S. and the Caribbean share this increasing vulnerability to hurricanes, they hold very different opinions about the severity of climate change. According to results from the latest <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/">Vanderbilt University AmericasBarometer survey</a>, a strong majority of Caribbean residents perceive climate change as a “very serious” problem. In contrast, just 44 percent <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights/IO929en.pdf">of the U.S. public does</a>.</p>
<p>Why the difference of opinion? Our <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xwl-kqcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">research</a> identifies two key factors: politics and risk perception. </p>
<h2>Climate change is a partisan issue in the US</h2>
<p>The AmericasBarometer is a biennial survey conducted by Vanderbilt University’s Latin American Public Opinion Project. The <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/">latest round</a> was conducted between 2016 and 2017 in 29 countries across the Americas.</p>
<p>The 10 Caribbean countries surveyed include <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-help-haitians-recover-from-the-mental-trauma-of-hurricane-matthew-66785">Haiti</a>, Dominica and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/nov/01/it-feels-like-dominica-is-finished-life-amid-the-ruins-left-by-hurricane-maria">Barbuda</a>, all hit hard by hurricanes in recent years. The survey found that between 56 percent and 79 percent of respondents in the Caribbean believe that climate change is a very serious problem for their country. </p>
<p><iframe id="nz8QR" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nz8QR/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Things look different in the United States, where the AmericasBarometer survey affirms <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801100104X">prior research</a> demonstrating that climate change is a partisan issue. More than three-quarters of individuals on the liberal side of the political spectrum reported that climate change is a very serious problem. </p>
<p>Less than 20 percent of those with conservative leanings expressed the same degree of concern. </p>
<p><iframe id="1N4Au" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1N4Au/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>This pattern holds even when we control for age, education, income, gender and perceptions of disaster risk.</p>
<p>In the Caribbean, political leanings are far less consequential to people’s views of climate change. The AmericasBarometer survey asked respondents in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica to place themselves on a scale that runs from the political left to the right. We found no significant differences in opinions about climate change from people with different political views.</p>
<p>One explanation for why the Caribbean public demonstrates more of a consensus on climate change, then, is simply that the issue is not politicized in that region. People of all ideological bents agree that, in the Caribbean, climate change poses a very serious problem.</p>
<h2>Just how dangerous is climate change?</h2>
<p>People’s perceptions of their vulnerability to climate change-related dangers may also explain diverging views on the issue.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/">AmericasBarometer</a> asked respondents in both the Caribbean and <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights/IO929en.pdf">the United States</a> to assess the odds that they or a family member would be killed or seriously harmed by a natural disaster in the next 25 years. </p>
<p>In both places, those who feel most vulnerable to disasters more often report that climate change is a “very serious” problem. This relationship holds even when accounting for age, education, wealth, urban residence and gender.</p>
<p>Overall, though, in the U.S. people feel less exposed to hurricanes and other disasters than their Caribbean counterparts. In fact, most members of the U.S. public believe that personal harm from a future disaster is either “not likely at all” or “unlikely.”</p>
<p>Most people in the Caribbean, on the other hand, say it is “somewhat likely” or “very likely.” </p>
<p><iframe id="YvkQ2" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/YvkQ2/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>These notable differences may be due to geography. Because the Caribbean region is comprised of islands, a higher proportion of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf">communities there are coastal</a>. This, in turn, can increase the impact that storms have on residents. </p>
<h2>Climate change and hurricanes</h2>
<p>Some scientific consensus exists that <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-now-blame-individual-natural-disasters-on-climate-change/">climate change can be blamed</a>, at least in part, for the hundreds of casualties and more than US$400 billion in damage that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/10/weather/hurricane-nate-maria-irma-harvey-impact-look-back-trnd/index.html">storms brought</a> to the U.S. and the Caribbean in 2017. </p>
<p>Scientific models indicate that the Earth’s warming climate is likely to shape future storm activity in the Atlantic basin. Scientists are not sure, however, exactly how this will manifest itself in future hurricane seasons. Some researchers suggest that warmer temperatures increase storm <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075888/full">probability</a>. Others restrict the effects to storm <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00195.1">intensity</a>. </p>
<p>The 2018 hurricane season is just a few months away. Our research reveals that with politics removed and risk perceptions elevated, people in the Caribbean are bracing for whatever comes quite differently than their U.S. counterparts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91049/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J. Zechmeister directs Vanderbilt's Latin American Public Opinion Project. In that capacity, her work has been supported by USAID, the Inter-American Development Bank, United Nations Development Programme and Open Society Foundations. Opinions expressed in this article belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the AmericasBarometer project or its funders.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Q. Evans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research suggests politics and risk perception may explain why the US and Caribbean see climate change so differently, though both places are ever more vulnerable to powerful hurricanes.Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Cornelius Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science and Director of LAPOP, Vanderbilt UniversityClaire Q. Evans, Doctoral Student, Political Science, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/861932018-01-25T11:39:01Z2018-01-25T11:39:01ZWhy climate change is worsening public health problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202891/original/file-20180122-182968-19hqzwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People collect water piped in from a mountain creek in Utuado, Puerto Rico on Oct. 14, 2017, in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. Hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans were still without running water. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Puerto-Rico-Environmental-Crisis/8caf29f0169c47fb8a4f96c3b9da51fb/175/0">AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around the world, the health care debate often revolves around access. </p>
<p>Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the World Health Organization, recently announced: “All roads lead to universal health coverage.” Discussions for how to translate this vision into a road map for action is central to the agenda of the <a href="http://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/EB142/B142_13-en.pdf">WHO’s executive board</a> meeting this week in Geneva. </p>
<p>Yet focusing on access is not enough. The imperative for access must be paired with a frank acknowledgment that climate change is making communities around the world more vulnerable to ill health. A <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)32464-9/fulltext?elsca1=tlpr">2017 commission of The Lancet</a>, a leading health research journal, tracked the effects of climate change on health and found evidence of harms “far worse that previously understood.”</p>
<p>Even as we move to close the access gap, a string of natural disasters in late 2017, including successive hurricanes and widespread forest fires, threaten to widen the vulnerability gap.</p>
<p>As a global health professional (Sosin) and a cultural anthropologist (Kivland), we have witnessed how the global exchange of health technology, expertise and aid has contributed to dramatic gains in the delivery of health care in Haiti and other settings, especially around infectious diseases. Yet climate change threatens to undermine the health gains in vulnerable communities across the globe. </p>
<p>As firsthand witnesses to sharp health disparities globally, we argue that world leaders need to insist that any health care strategy must address the social and environmental vulnerabilities driving poor health in the first place.</p>
<h2>The health burden of climate change</h2>
<p>Climate scientists argue that global warming is exacerbating extreme weather events. And natural disasters are often the source of health crises, particularly in fragile settings. Consider the case of Puerto Rico. The official death toll of the storm was estimated at 64; however, later reports have estimated that the disruption of health care services contributed to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/08/us/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-death-toll.html">upwards of 1,052 deaths</a> on the island. </p>
<p>Lagging recovery efforts have exposed how natural disasters deepen the relationship between socio-economic inequality and health disparity. In Puerto Rico, <a href="https://www.puertoricoreport.com/how-mississippi-is-catching-up-and-puerto-rico-is-not/#.WfNWfEyZNE5">where poverty rates are double those of the poorest continental state</a>, <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article175955031.html">people already struggling with illnesses such as diabetes and kidney disease</a> have seen their conditions worsen as the long-crumbling health care system is overwhelmed with patients and neglected by the mainland government.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/flooding-from-hurricane-harvey-causes-a-host-of-public-health-concerns-83134">health impacts of the storms </a>may persist even beyond the restoration of health services.</p>
<p>Hurricane Harvey exposed the toxic afterlife of disastrous storms. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/08/us/houston-hurricane-harvey-harzardous-chemicals.html?_r=0">Storm damage to 40 industrial sites</a> released chemical toxins linked to cellular damage, cancer and other long-term health problems. As <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/commissions/pollution-and-health">The Lancet’s Commission on Pollution and Health</a> found, air, water and soil pollution is now the leading environmental cause of death and disability, accounting for more than 9 million deaths annually. These numbers will only grow in the face of climate-induced disasters.</p>
<p>Restoring health care systems is vital for these communities, but it will merely treat the symptoms and not the causes of post-disaster illness. We believe that policymakers must address the link between environmental and health crises.</p>
<h2>Haiti as case study</h2>
<p>We have learned this lesson from our work in Haiti. Once a death sentence in rural Haiti, today HIV is largely controlled thanks to widespread access to antiretroviral therapy. The prevalence of the disease in pregnant women fell from <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/31755066/ns/health-aids/t/haiti-surprise-good-news-about-aids/#.WfNXOEyZNE5">6 percent to just over 2 percent </a> in the 10-year period from 1993 to 2003. Likewise, vaccines against cholera, introduced in 2015,<a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vaccine-haiti-cholera/">have proven to be up to 90 percent effective against the disease</a>.</p>
<p>However, even as vaccine coverage continues to grow, the population remains at risk for cholera and other emergent threats. Only 58 percent of the population has access to safe water and only 28 percent has access to <a href="https://www.globalwaters.org/WhereWeWork/LAC/Haiti">basic sanitation</a>. These conditions worsen in the wake of natural disasters. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/15/world/americas/cholera-haiti-hurricane-matthew.html">Hurricane Mathew in 2016</a> triggered spikes in cholera and other waterborne diseases, especially diarrhea, <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs330/en/">the second leading cause of death among children</a>.</p>
<p>Hitting the one region of Haiti that had not yet been denuded of trees and vegetation, Hurricane Matthew seemed to complete the destruction of the country’s food systems. </p>
<p>Since the late 1980s, the erosion of waterways, loss of habitats and destruction of agricultural land have fueled the importation of cheap, processed foods. Rice and pasta have replaced a diet once rich in fruits, vegetables and whole grains. The high-sugar, low-nutrition foods contribute to the dual health burdens of obesity and under-nutrition. </p>
<p>These trends are ongoing, but they are <a href="https://health2016.globalchange.gov/">exacerbated by the disastrous shocks of extreme weather events</a>, which are made more likely by climate change. As Hurricane Matthew came ashore, it decimated fishing villages and tore through farming communities, killing livestock, uprooting crops and denuding backyard fruit trees. The United Nations estimated that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/a-month-after-hurricane-matthew-800000-haitians-urgently-need-food/2016/11/03/382cb2a6-9f74-11e6-8864-6f892cad0865_story.html?utm_term=.854ada106f6d">800,000</a> people suffered food shortages. </p>
<h2>Closing the vulnerability gap</h2>
<p>Haiti is often cast as behind the global curve. But as a reflection of the dangerous intersection of climate change, poverty and ill health, it is in fact predictive of what is to come in the rest of the world. Haiti teaches us that our own health is not bound up simply in the present decisions we make about health care systems but rather more broadly situated in the changing natural environment.</p>
<p>Closing the access gap has been a long battle and the gains cannot be underestimated. Yet the challenge ahead is even more daunting. Whereas increasing access has centered on extending health care technologies to underserved populations, closing the vulnerability gap will require approaches that extend beyond the health sector and national borders.</p>
<p>In the past year, the health care debate in the U.S. has centered on attempts to limit or expand access to care. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has left the Paris climate accord and unraveled environmental protections for national and transnational corporations – with little resistance from health advocates. We believe that leaders must recognize that environmental policy is health policy. Rollbacks of environmental regulations will cause far greater consequences on health, in the U.S. and globally, than any health care bill. </p>
<p>Fixing health care systems while we undermine the environmental conditions for health are a textbook example of what Haitians describe as “lave men, swiyè atè"—washing your hands but drying them in the dirt.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change threatens to widen the health gap between the haves and have-nots. Here’s why addressing environmental issues that drive poor health is a starting point.Chelsey Kivland, Professor of Anthropology, Dartmouth CollegeAnne Sosin, Global Health Initiative Program Manager, Dartmouth CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/887652017-12-28T21:43:41Z2017-12-28T21:43:41Z2017: the year in extreme weather<p>Overall 2017 will be the <a href="https://theconversation.com/2017-is-set-to-be-among-the-three-hottest-years-on-record-86934">warmest non-El Niño year on record</a> globally, and over the past 12 months we have seen plenty of extreme weather, both here in Australia and across the world. </p>
<p>Here I’ll round up some of this year’s wild weather, and look forward to 2018 to see what’s around the corner.</p>
<h2>Drought and flooding rains… again</h2>
<p>It feels as if Australia has had all manner of extreme weather events in 2017.
We had severe heat at both the start and end of the year. Casting our minds back to last summer, both <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-01/sydney-summer-the-hottest-on-record/8315672">Sydney</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-01/brisbane-summer-a-record-scorcher-bureau-meteorology-says/8314478">Brisbane</a> experienced their hottest summers on record, while parts of inland New South Wales and Queensland endured extended periods of very high temperatures.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weve-learned-a-lot-about-heatwaves-but-were-still-just-warming-up-68174">We've learned a lot about heatwaves, but we're still just warming up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>More recently Australia had an <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-dry-june-is-a-sign-of-whats-to-come-80469">unusually dry June</a> and its <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-01/australia-winter-2017-was-hot-dry-and-a-record/8862856">warmest winter daytime temperatures</a> on record. The record winter warmth was made <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-record-breaking-winter-warmth-linked-to-climate-change-83304">substantially more likely by human-caused climate change</a>.</p>
<p>The end of the year brought more than its fair share of extreme weather, especially in the southeast. Tasmania had by far its <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/tas/summary.shtml">warmest November on record</a>, beating the previous statewide record by more than half a degree. Melbourne had a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201711/html/IDCJDW3033.201711.shtml">topsy-turvy November</a> with temperatures not hitting the 20°C mark until the 9th, but a record 12 days above 30°C after that.</p>
<p>November was rounded off by <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-weather-record-rainfall-and-flash-flooding-to-kick-off-summer-20171129-gzvk4s.html">warnings for very severe weather</a> that was forecast to strike Victoria. Melbourne missed the worst of the rains, although it still had a very wet weekend on December 2-3. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-03/victoria-weather-rain-flood-warnings-in-place/9220896">northern parts of the state</a> were deluged, with many places recording two or three times the December average rainfall in just a couple of days.</p>
<h2>Hurricane after hurricane after hurricane…</h2>
<p>Elsewhere in the world there was plenty more headline-worthy weather.</p>
<p>The Atlantic Ocean had a particularly active hurricane season, with several intense systems. <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-hurricane-harvey-a-harbinger-for-houstons-future-83098">Hurricane Harvey struck Texas</a> and its slow trajectory resulted in record-breaking rainfall over Houston and neighbouring areas. </p>
<p>Then Hurricanes <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/hurricane-irma-42848">Irma</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/hurricane-maria-43477">Maria</a>, both of which reached the strongest Category 5 status, brought severe weather to the Caribbean and southeastern United States just a couple of weeks apart. Island nations and territories in the region are <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41929287">still recovering</a> from the devastation.</p>
<p>Around the same time, the Indian subcontinent experienced a particularly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/30/mumbai-paralysed-by-floods-as-india-and-region-hit-by-worst-monsoon-rains-in-years">wet monsoon season</a>. Flooding in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/30/mumbai-paralysed-by-floods-as-india-and-region-hit-by-worst-monsoon-rains-in-years">killed more than 1,000 people</a> and affected tens of millions more.</p>
<p>Other parts of the world experienced their own severe weather events. Whether it was <a href="https://theconversation.com/southeast-europe-swelters-through-another-heatwave-with-a-human-fingerprint-82139">summer heat in Europe</a> or <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/11/us/california-fires-updates/index.html">wildfires in California</a>, 2017 dished up plenty of extremes.</p>
<p>In many cases, especially for heat extremes, we can <a href="https://theconversation.com/columns/andrew-king-103126">rapidly identify a human influence</a> and show that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of such events. </p>
<p>For other weather types, like the very active hurricane season and other extreme rain or drought events, it is harder (but <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-just-heat-even-our-spring-frosts-can-bear-the-fingerprint-of-climate-change-89029">not always impossible</a>) to work out whether it bears the fingerprint of climate change.</p>
<h2>What’s in store for 2018?</h2>
<p>The main problem when trying to offer an outlook is that extreme weather is hard to predict, even on the scale of days or weeks in advance, let alone months.</p>
<p>For Australia, with a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/">weak La Niña</a> in the Pacific, there are few clear indications of what the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary">rest of the summer’s weather will bring</a>. There is a suggestion that we can expect a slightly wetter than average start to the year in parts of the southeast, along with warmer than average conditions for Victoria and Tasmania. Beyond that it is anyone’s guess.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-just-heat-even-our-spring-frosts-can-bear-the-fingerprint-of-climate-change-89029">Not just heat: even our spring frosts can bear the fingerprint of climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The La Niña is also likely to mean that 2018 won’t be a record hot year for the globe. But it’s a safe bet that despite the La Niña, 2018 will still end up among the warmest years on record, alongside <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/">every other year this century</a>. Rising global average temperatures, along with our understanding of the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, are one of our clearest lines of evidence for human-caused climate change.</p>
<p>So it’s hard to say much about what extreme weather we’ll experience in 2018, other than to say that there’s likely to be plenty more weather news to wrap up in a year’s time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88765/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. </span></em></p>2017 brought wild, wacky and even deadly weather. Australia was hit by heatwaves and torrential rains, plus some surprisingly cool spells. Hurricanes hit America, and a killer monsoon lashed Asia.Andrew King, Climate Extremes Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/860362017-11-15T00:14:35Z2017-11-15T00:14:35ZWhy Puerto Rico is getting the brunt of ‘donor fatigue’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194425/original/file-20171113-27622-1d7mvz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Being one of a series of disasters made relief in Puerto Rico harder to come by after Hurricane Maria. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Puerto-Rico-Hurricane-Maria-Shelter-Life/94af5b8794744d9cb0b49439c4068957/107/0">AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recovering from disasters is never easy. When disasters pile up, it gets harder.</p>
<p>On top of the inevitable competition for everything from the government’s funding for recovery efforts to construction materials, donations for relief operations dry up as givers develop what’s known as “<a href="http://blog.winspireme.com/16-fundraising-best-practices-for-preventing-donor-fatigue">donor fatigue</a>.” </p>
<p>While studying disaster relief and community resilience, I’ve learned that there are many factors shaping if and how much people give. I’ve also found that those decisions can have important consequences for communities affected by disasters. And when multiple devastating events occur around the same time, the strain on donors and responders takes a big toll.</p>
<h2>Donor fatigue</h2>
<p>When donors have already supported other relief efforts, they may feel that they either can’t or don’t need to give again. </p>
<p>Today, that means many people who supported recovery efforts after Hurricane Harvey or perhaps Hurricane Irma are <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/10/04/puerto-rico-donations-lag-behind-fundraising-harvey-irma-victims-vegas-shooting/731955001/">not pitching in</a> to help Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria. </p>
<p>While the <a href="http://www.redcross.org/about-us/media/press-releases">American Red Cross</a>, a leading relief nonprofit, said it had raised <a href="http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/American-Red-Cross-Issues-One-Month-Progress-Report-on-Relief-Response-for-Historic-Hurricane-Harvey">US$350 million for Hurricane Harvey</a> recovery efforts within a month, donations a month after <a href="http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/Hurricane-Irma-One-Month-Progress-Report-Details-American-Red-Cross-Relief-Efforts">Irma totaled only $56.4 million</a>. Red Cross donations amounted to just <a href="http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/One-Month-Progress-Report-Highlights-American-Red-Cross-Response-to-Hurricane-Maria">$31.6 million a month after Maria</a>.</p>
<p>And that’s despite estimates that total losses for each of the three big hurricanes were staggering and ranked <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/hurricane-damage-economic-costs-4150369">among the highest ever registered</a>.</p>
<p>Texas alone suffered an estimated <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Abbott-weathering-political-storms-in-addition-to-12299718.php">$150 billion in damage</a> from Harvey. Irma may have wrought as much as <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-predicts-economic-cost-of-harvey-irma-to-be-290-billion/70002686">$100 billion</a> in damage, and for Puerto Rico, Maria’s price tag may ultimately total some <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/puerto-rico-faces-cash-shortfall-hurricane-maria-50839504">$95 billion</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="SKW2M" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SKW2M/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The ways people tend to give after disasters – such as a preference for <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-giving-cash-not-clothing-is-usually-best-after-disasters-83405">in-kind donations</a> like clothing and food and tying strings to cash – can also magnify the damage done by donor fatigue. </p>
<p>Giving things as opposed to cash may make donors feel like they’re making a concrete difference or make them more confident that their contribution will be put to a specific good use. But sending cases of bottled water or bales of diapers on long trips rarely helps as much as just giving money. It’s expensive and inefficient, and there is bound to be a mismatch between these items and what people on the ground actually need.</p>
<p>In-kind donations can also get stranded. Unused goods, like cases of peanut butter or blankets, either get put to a nonemergency use or sent to another location. When the latter happens, that means the water bottles, blankets or other things take extra trips – becoming more expensive by the time they make it to, say, a Puerto Rican mountaintop village.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These cases of bottled water were donated for the Empire State Relief and Recovery Effort for Puerto Rico in September.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Hurricane-Maria-New-York-Connection/0d0cca3f42f34669a37cae9bae58aed7/17/0">AP Photo/Julie Jacobson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Likewise, it can cause more harm than good when donors demand that the money they give be used in a specific way.</p>
<p>For example, some people stipulate that their monetary donations slated for, say, Hurricane Harvey survivors in Houston, Texas, must be used only for that purpose. That common and longstanding practice often prevents disaster relief groups from <a href="https://learn.guidestar.org/news/news-releases/2010/guidestar-urges-donors-not-to-restrict-nonprofits-when-giving-to-disaster-re">using that money elsewhere</a>.</p>
<p>This restriction distorts the ability of nonprofits to do their best to help the victims of more recent disasters, I’ve heard from people who worked for disaster relief organizations while doing my research.</p>
<p>Cash donations without constraints give relief groups the most flexibility, which helps temper the impact of donor fatigue in subsequent emergencies. </p>
<p>I find the lagging donations for Irma and Maria troubling because with few exceptions, most donations to support disaster relief are made within a few weeks of hurricanes, earthquakes or other devastating events. </p>
<p><iframe id="ZwsEh" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZwsEh/8/" height="500" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Government funding fatigue</h2>
<p>Another problem that arises when disasters bunch up is that the government itself can’t keep up with demand for the funds it reserves for relief work.</p>
<p>The budget for what’s known as the the <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42352.pdf">Disaster Relief Fund</a> is largely based on the average of the previous decade of disaster spending. While structured to accommodate the unpredictability of the number and cost of events, years with a particularly catastrophic event – or multiple major disasters – can drain this budget. In those cases, the government can’t fully fund disaster response work unless <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42352.pdf">Congress passes legislation allocating more money</a> and the president signs off.</p>
<p>Because dealing with <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/09/08/549279078/with-harvey-and-now-irma-federal-funds-and-fema-are-put-to-the-test">Hurricane Harvey</a> had largely depleted these disaster funds before Hurricanes Irma and Maria even made landfall, Trump approved an additional <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/357404-trump-signs-365b-disaster-relief-package">$36.5 billion</a> in a relief package.</p>
<p>But costs from these disasters are so high that this new allocation may not suffice. In addition, the funding includes $16 billion for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/flood-insurance-is-broken-here-are-some-ways-to-fix-it-83769">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, which is not enough to to make up for its <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/01/cbo-flood-insurance-program-shortfall/625460001/">$25 billion debt</a> that began piling up after Hurricane Katrina.</p>
<p><iframe id="VKsRC" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VKsRC/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Even more disasters</h2>
<p>Compounding the problem is that Houston, Tampa, San Juan and <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-wildfires-leave-lasting-economic-scars-on-californias-vital-wine-country-86174">California’s wine country</a> aren’t the only communities struggling to get back on their feet.</p>
<p>In the middle of this busy hurricane and wildfire season, <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-road-to-recovery-after-quakes-is-far-longer-than-it-looks-84479">Mexico was rocked by two earthquakes</a> – one of which also caused major damage in Guatemala. In South Asia, <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastating-himalayan-floods-are-made-worse-by-an-international-blame-game-83103">Bangladesh, India and Nepal were swamped</a> by extreme flooding.</p>
<p>At the same time, crises created through politics and war need donor aid too. Violence across the Middle East is still <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-have-4-8-million-syrian-refugees-gone-57968">uprooting millions of people</a> in that region, many of whom have nowhere to go as anti-refugee fervor heats up around the world. And hundreds of thousands of <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-anyone-protect-the-rohingya-85809">Rohingya refugees</a> have fled persecution in Myanmar.</p>
<p>Just like when multiple disasters occur within a country, simultaneous crises across the globe create competition for relief resources on an international scale.</p>
<p>The good news is that there are some creative ways to combat donor fatigue and boost giving – even after relief donations usually dry up. For instance, musical theater superstar <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lin-manuel-miranda-brings-help-hope-to-puerto-rico/">Lin-Manuel Miranda</a> will reprise his signature role as Alexander Hamilton in 2019 in San Juan to raise money for Puerto Rican disaster relief while lifting local spirits.</p>
<p>It’s also not too late for the federal government to dedicate additional funding to help fill the gaps that remain. And there’s still time for everyone to make a difference by making monetary donations that give relief organizations the freedom to use those funds where they are needed the most.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"928349595385638912"}"></div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Penta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Charitable giving and government aid can shortchange disasters that follow other disasters.Samantha Penta, Assistant Professor, College of Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security and Cybersecurity, University at Albany, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/855222017-11-14T02:43:23Z2017-11-14T02:43:23ZCan cities get smarter about extreme weather?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193837/original/file-20171108-14209-ij0s4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The intensity of heavy downpours in Houston has increased dramatically since the 1950s, leading some people to argue the city's disaster planning and infrastructure are not up-to-date. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Remember the movie <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiAHlZVgXjk">“Moneyball”</a>? The Oakland A’s are struggling, financially and on the baseball field. Then they introduce an innovative system for figuring out which players will improve team performance. Moving away from observations by scouts, the A’s begin to use advanced statistics to value players. With their new insights, the A’s acquire high-impact players for relatively little money. Within a season, they’re at the top of the game and so successful that within a few years the rest of the league has reorganized how they value players, too.</p>
<p>“Moneyball” highlights the power of innovative <a href="http://cspo.org/library/knowledge-systems-analysis-a-report-for-the-advancing-conservation-in-a-social-context-project/">knowledge systems</a>: creative new sets of tools and practices for collecting, analyzing and applying data to solving problems. All organizations depend on knowledge systems, but it’s not uncommon, over time, for the knowledge they generate to become stale and poorly adapted to changing contexts.</p>
<p>As researchers on resilience and sustainability of cities, we’ve found that unfortunately that has become the case for a number of <a href="http://mdpi.com/1999-4907/8/6/203/htm">cities</a>. This is already causing problems: Outdated knowledge systems have <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-015-0052-7">exacerbated recent disasters</a> and contributed to growing financial losses from extreme weather, which have exceeded <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/time-series">US$110 billion</a> in the U.S. this year alone.</p>
<p>Discussions around improving resilience and adaptation to extreme events often focus on <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-rules-for-rebuilding-infrastructure-in-an-era-of-unprecedented-weather-events-83129">upgrading infrastructure</a> or building new infrastructure, such as bigger levees or flood walls. But cities also need new ways of knowing, evaluating and anticipating risk by updating their information systems.</p>
<h2>500-year flood</h2>
<p>Consider the use of <a href="https://water.usgs.gov/edu/100yearflood.html">100-year</a> or 500-year flood levels to guide urban planning and development. Using this framework, cities hope to prevent small floods while limiting the occurrence of catastrophic flooding. </p>
<p>Yet, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/13/we-still-dont-know-how-to-talk-about-floods/">the data behind this strategy</a> are rapidly becoming obsolete. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/srep07093">Weather statistics are now changing</a> in many places. As a result, cities are experiencing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/28/climate/500-year-flood-hurricane-harvey-houston.html?mcubz=0&mcubz=3">repeat 500-year floods, sometimes multiple times, in a few decades or less</a>. Yet cities continue to rely almost exclusively on historical data for projecting future risks.</p>
<p>The city of Houston, Texas, for example, has experienced a <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/across-us-heaviest-downpours-on-the-rise-18989">167 percent increase in the intensity of heavy downpours</a> between 2005-2014 as compared to 1950-1959. The 2017 Hurricane Harvey flood in Houston represented the <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608800/our-hurricane-risk-models-are-dangerously-out-of-date/">third 500-year flood to occur in the past three years</a>. Prior to Harvey, Harris County flood control managers <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/boomtown-floodtown/">downplayed the need to change their knowledge systems</a>, arguing that the two prior flooding events were isolated events.</p>
<h2>New possible futures</h2>
<p>Cities need to better anticipate what would happen in the case of these types of unprecedented extreme weather events. The past few years have seen a growing number of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/04/24/record-breaking-climate-events-all-over-the-world-are-being-shaped-by-global-warming-scientists-find/?utm_term=.ae0c33845413">record-breaking</a> storms, <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/02/150212-megadrought-southwest-water-climate-environment/">droughts</a> and other weather events. </p>
<p>The National Weather Service labeled Hurricane Harvey <a href="https://twitter.com/NWS/status/901832717070983169">“unprecedented,”</a> both for the rapidity of its intensification and the record levels of rainfall it dumped on Houston. Hurricane María hit San Juan as the <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hurricane-maria-1.4297889">third-strongest storm to make landfall in the U.S.</a>, based on air pressure measurements. Its <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-hurricane-maria-surprised-forecasters-by-getting-so-strong-so-fast/">rapid intensification surprised forecasters</a> and presents yet another challenge to climate and weather models. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194012/original/file-20171109-13317-rs1uef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194012/original/file-20171109-13317-rs1uef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194012/original/file-20171109-13317-rs1uef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194012/original/file-20171109-13317-rs1uef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194012/original/file-20171109-13317-rs1uef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194012/original/file-20171109-13317-rs1uef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194012/original/file-20171109-13317-rs1uef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194012/original/file-20171109-13317-rs1uef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hit hard by Hurricane Maria, Puerto Rico needs to rebuild infrastructure, such as this dam and its power grid. But it also needs to update the assumptions around extreme weather that go into planning and design.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Record-breaking events like these <a href="https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/hurricane-harvey-and-the-new-normal/">cannot be made sense of using statistics</a> grounded on the past frequency of occurrence. Not recognizing the growing risks from extreme weather is dangerous and costly if cities continue to <a href="https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/906239357757030400">create more buildings</a> that are more expensive in <a href="https://mobile.nytimes.com/2005/12/11/us/nationalspecial/in-study-a-history-lesson-on-the-costs-of-hurricanes.html">increasingly vulnerable locations</a>.</p>
<p>What’s needed are new and more creative ways to explore possible futures and their <a href="https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/cambridge-plan-climate-change-worst-case-scenario">potential implications</a>. One approach is to use climate or other predictive models. Such models are never perfect but can add important elements to discussions that can’t be gotten from historical data. </p>
<p>For instance, cities can look at projected sea level rise or storm surges and decide whether it makes economic sense to rebuild homes after damaging storms, or whether it’s better to compensate homeowners to move outside the flood zone. </p>
<h2>Designing for tomorrow’s storms</h2>
<p>Cities also need to upgrade their knowledge systems to anticipate risks in what are often called “design storms.” These are the anticipated future storms that people who design and build individual structures – from buildings to flood walls – are required to use in their designs as a minimum risk standard. </p>
<p>Cities need to seriously <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/srep07093?message-global=remove">rethink their design storm standards</a> if they are to fully understand and be comfortable with the future risks from extreme weather events to which their businesses and residents are being exposed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193835/original/file-20171108-14167-1nzbgg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193835/original/file-20171108-14167-1nzbgg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193835/original/file-20171108-14167-1nzbgg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193835/original/file-20171108-14167-1nzbgg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193835/original/file-20171108-14167-1nzbgg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193835/original/file-20171108-14167-1nzbgg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193835/original/file-20171108-14167-1nzbgg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193835/original/file-20171108-14167-1nzbgg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Municipalities invest heavily in infrastructure, such as this spillway in Sacramento, to guard against flooding and other extreme weather events, but their design models are lagging as the climate changes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usacehq/17620024974/in/photolist-cEEZW7-pvNAkt-9riqyt-peimZD-75Ezfo-ciLpGE-fhd2LU-cR6Lxq-cyRqa7-9nPMte-9GDgGy-bk9zcN-qYtZ8Y-fgXN98-9MaACX-qobkRa-cR6KQS-75EMDN-9isosR-qG1gkN-pvNffi-pvLM3G-cR6MN1-9MayiX-qfKdGX-bSSmKt-awFSK3-qPWyBL-75Bdmv-piL6bG-cR6KnW-cR6Ldy-ei6RL9-nt6kgR-fhd2nW-qfFRaS-9GoAhf-nt6gNP-9GkJt4-9Mawik-DmaCjc-qQ8TQ2-rsAX9F-Jd4sfw-whHWXE-tN9VJ6-sR26NJ-sR2ey3-rLPGvJ-LgR5WU">U.S. Army Corps of Engineers</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In New Orleans, for example, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers created a <a href="http://www.asce.org/question-of-ethics-articles/july-2015/">Standard Project Hurricane</a> in 1957 that defined the wind speeds and storm surges that the levees built around the city would have to withstand. As with most design storms, the Standard Project Hurricane was based on retrospective data of past hurricane frequency and intensity in the century prior to 1957. In subsequent decades, however, hurricane frequency and intensity changed significantly in the Gulf of Mexico, the Standard Project Hurricane was not updated and protection infrastructures were not upgraded, contributing to their failure in the face of <a href="https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/katrina/reports/erpreport.pdf">Hurricane Katrina</a>.</p>
<h2>Cities and federal government</h2>
<p>One final area for knowledge systems innovation in cities is risk inequalities.</p>
<p>It seems increasingly clear that cities like Houston, New York and New Orleans were poorly informed about how flooding risks would be distributed across communities within their cities, particularly communities of color and low-income communities. </p>
<p>This inattention to disproportionate risk raises several questions: Were the communities of these flood-prone cities aware of these risks and vulnerabilities? How much did <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/houston-harvey-drainage-1.4267585">city officials and developers know</a>? How did their efforts exacerbate existing disparities? Did people making decisions about where to live <a href="https://qz.com/1073503/hurricane-irma-many-floridians-are-now-in-danger-because-they-didnt-know-how-to-read-a-hurricane-map/">understand the risks they faced</a>? </p>
<p>The significance of knowledge systems for urban resilience extends beyond cities to national agencies and organizations. Sadly, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/climate/flooding-infrastructure-climate-change-trump-obama.html?mcubz=3">Trump administration decided</a> in August to issue an executive order exempting federal agencies and public infrastructure projects from planning for sea level rise. <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-barack-obama-flood-protections-flooding-hurricane-harvey-houston-texas-a7916476.html">Abolishing flood standards</a> is a step backwards for fostering knowledge systems that enhance urban resilience. </p>
<p>Even if federal agencies choose to ignore sea level rise, we believe cities should pressure them to take it into account. In the end, it is the city and its people who are being put at risk, not the federal government. It is promising, for example, to see local and regional efforts like the <a href="http://www.southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/who-we-are/">Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact</a> coming to together to upgrade their <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-a-single-region-in-florida-show-the-state-how-to-adapt-to-climate-change-63298">resilience knowledge systems</a> and advocate for desirable federal policies for climate adaptation.</p>
<p>What cities know and how they think are <a href="http://www.100resilientcities.org/resources/">essential to whether cities can make better decisions</a>. For over a century, cities have broadly approached knowledge about weather risks by collecting and averaging past weather data. Nature is now sending cities a simple message: <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/hurricane-irma-a-practically-impossible-storm/">That strategy won’t work anymore</a>.</p>
<p><em>This article was produced by the Knowledge Systems Innovation Group at Arizona State University’s Urban Resilience to Extreme Events Sustainability Research Network (UREx SRN) (Eric Kennedy, Margaret Hinrichs, Changdeok Gim, Kaethe Selkirk, Pani Pajouhesh, Robert Hobbins, Mathieu Feagan).</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85522/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clark Miller receives funding from the National Science Foundation for research on resilience, innovation, and knowledge systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thaddeus R. Miller receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tischa Muñoz-Erickson receives funding from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>It’s not just about rebuilding infrastructure after storms: Cities need to systematically rethink their knowledge systems which are at the heart of urban resilience.Clark Miller, Professor of the Future of Innovation in Society, Arizona State UniversityThaddeus R. Miller, Assistant Professor, School for the Future of Innovation in Society and The Polytechnic School, Arizona State UniversityTischa Muñoz-Erickson, Research Social Scientist, International Institute of Tropical Forestry Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/821332017-11-09T22:26:22Z2017-11-09T22:26:22ZHow the proposed budget and tax cuts could stunt new affordable housing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193193/original/file-20171103-1011-1ebm8xi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For many Americans, there is no such thing as affordable housing in today's real estate market.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/shocked-couple-looking-high-price-label-327113930?src=YhLkhsvV9gTFogZ0PqRYNg-1-34">Aleutie/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Low-income Americans are already struggling to keep a roof over their heads due to a growing <a href="http://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/Gap-Report_2017.pdf">affordable housing</a> shortage.</p>
<p>But budgets drafted by the <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/04/27/congress-takes-steps-to-push-budget-deadline-avert-shutdown.html">Trump administration</a> and <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/10/26/560215916/congress-paves-way-for-tax-legislation-by-passing-budget-resolution">Congress</a>, along with provisions in the <a href="http://www.housingfinance.com/policy-legislation/tax-reform-proposal-threatens-affordable-housing-production_o">tax cut package</a>, are bound to <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/blog/without-more-hud-funds-every-state-will-lose-housing-vouchers-in-2018">make matters worse</a>. </p>
<p>As a researcher who studies the intersection of tax law and housing policy, I am concerned about how these proposed changes would reduce the volume of new housing for low-income people and cut aid that people facing economic hardship use to cover their rent.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eV0n7vYbwIk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Rep. Al Green grilled Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson regarding cuts the Trump administration has proposed.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Spending on housing</h2>
<p>The federal government <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41654.pdf">stopped building public housing</a> two decades ago after years of declining construction. Although it has demolished many of these homes, the government continues to own and rent out about <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/policy-basics-public-housing">1.1 million of these units</a>.</p>
<p>Nowadays, the government mostly seeks to help make privately owned and operated housing affordable by providing rental assistance to low-income tenants. The main way it does that is by funding the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/hud.pdf">US$19.3 billion</a> <a href="https://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/public_indian_housing/programs/hcv/about/fact_sheet">Housing Choice Voucher program</a> through which eligible tenants get help paying their rent.</p>
<p>The federal government also subsidizes the construction of privately owned and operated housing units that are officially designated as “affordable.” Private sector developers who build or rehabilitate affordable housing projects do so with the aid of the federal <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/lihtc.html">low-income housing tax credit</a>.</p>
<p>In the U.S., <a href="http://www.forworkingfamilies.org/page/policy-tools-affordable-housing-dictionary">affordable housing</a> is defined as dwellings that cost less than 30 percent of low-income tenants’ income for rent and utilities or the owners’ mortgage, property taxes, homeowners’ insurance and utilities – based on regional median income levels. </p>
<p>The tax credit, which has provided about <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/lihtc.html">$8 billion</a> in subsidies for new affordable housing projects each year, has financed about 3 million new or rehabbed homes <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/lihtc.html">since 1987</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, municipal and state debt governments often issue “<a href="http://www.ipedconference.com/powerpoints/Tax-Exempt_Housing_Bond_Basics.pdf">private activity bonds</a>” to finance low-income housing – as well as student loan programs, hospitals and big infrastructure projects like bridges and highways. Until now, these bonds have been exempt from federal taxes.</p>
<h2>Not enough</h2>
<p>The supply of affordable housing is <a href="http://nlihc.org/article/nlihc-releases-out-reach-2017-national-housing-wage-2121-hour">so low</a> that there is no state, city or county in the country where a full-time minimum wage employee can afford to rent a two-bedroom unit, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition, an advocacy group.</p>
<p>And the department of Housing and Urban Development says that the number of low-income families paying more than half their income for rent or living in severely inadequate housing conditions without help from the government is nearing <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/pdf/Worst-Case-Housing-Needs.pdf">record levels</a>.</p>
<p>As of 2015, roughly <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/50782-lowincomehousing-onecolumn.pdf">20 million</a> American households (excluding <a href="https://endhomelessness.org/homelessness-in-america/homelessness-statistics/state-of-homelessness-report/">the homeless</a>) were officially eligible for housing assistance. But nearly 75 percent of them did not get this help because of a lack of funds.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, a new study by Freddie Mac, a government-owned company that buys mortgages from lenders, found that the number of affordable housing units has <a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/multifamily/pdf/rental_affordability_worsening.pdf">plunged</a> over the last 15 years. The study focused on the affordability of rental units in buildings that were both financed by Freddie Mac and refinanced during that same period.</p>
<p>In those buildings, the share of rental units affordable to <a href="http://www.forworkingfamilies.org/page/policy-tools-affordable-housing-dictionary">very low-income</a> renters – people living on an income that is less than half of their area’s median, adjusted for their household size and local economy – dropped from 11.2 percent to 4.3 percent.</p>
<p>Calling the results “striking,” Freddie Mac <a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/multifamily/pdf/rental_affordability_worsening.pdf">speculated</a> that the trend reflected a combination of increasing rents, stagnant incomes and potential changes to housing subsidies. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"923955118277455874"}"></div></p>
<h2>Curbing help</h2>
<p>These housing woes are sure to become more dire. </p>
<p>One reason for this is that the proposed tax-cut package would abolish <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/republicans-want-to-end-muni-bond-sales-by-businesses-stadiums">private activity bonds</a>. These bonds currently help pay for the construction of more than <a href="http://www.housingfinance.com/policy-legislation/tax-reform-proposal-threatens-affordable-housing-production_o">40 percent of new affordable housing units</a>.</p>
<p>Less obviously, current tax reform proposals also stand to reduce the effectiveness of the low-income housing tax credit. While GOP lawmakers are not aiming to end the tax credit as part of their <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Documents/Tax-Framework.pdf">package of tax changes</a>, the <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/finance/345379-gop-debates-deep-cut-to-corporate-tax-rate">low corporate tax rates</a> proposed in the tax bill before Congress would surely reduce the value of the tax credits.</p>
<p>The reason for this grim outlook has to do with the complicated way low-income housing tax credits work.</p>
<p>To spur new affordable housing projects, the tax credits must deliver a meaningful subsidy to housing developers. But developers usually don’t use the tax credits directly. Instead, they sell the right to use the credits to banks and other investors. The investors essentially purchase the tax credits at a discount. The lower the price falls, the less value the developer receives. </p>
<p>The price that investors are paying to use the tax credits <a href="https://www.curbed.com/2017/11/2/16586570/tax-reform-affordable-housing">has already plummeted</a> in anticipation of reduced tax rates, leaving developers unable to secure the funding they need to produce affordable housing. One expert analysis estimates that the proposed tax cuts could lead to <a href="https://www.novoco.com/notes-from-novogradac/tax-reform-bill-would-eliminate-future-supply-nearly-1-million-affordable-rental-housing-units">1 million fewer affordable housing units</a> being produced over the next 10 years – about a third of what is currently produced.</p>
<h2>Simple and stark</h2>
<p>While the budget bills approved by the House and the Senate do not <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/19/hud-budget-cuts-housing-programs-238610">slice $6 billion from HUD’s budget</a>, as the Trump administration tried to do in its spending proposal, they would still leave more American families unable to afford a roof over their heads. </p>
<p>The relatively generous <a href="http://nlihc.org/article/senate-appropriations-committee-approves-fy18-housing-spending-bill">Senate version</a> of the housing line items appears likely to prevail as a way to <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/26/republican-leaders-budget-vote-244198">make way for the tax overhaul</a>. Even so, every state would have <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/blog/without-more-hud-funds-every-state-will-lose-housing-vouchers-in-2018">less money for housing vouchers</a>, according to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a think tank that researches safety net programs. </p>
<p>Perhaps this all sounds technical and complicated. But the outcome for many low-income Americans will be simple and stark.</p>
<p>The proposed tax changes that make it harder to finance new affordable housing units, combined with proposed cuts to tenant voucher programs, will increase the risk of becoming homeless and take a toll on the poor.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle D. Layser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Slashing government spending on housing and scrapping a key financing option for new units would make it harder than ever for low-income Americans to keep a roof over their heads.Michelle D. Layser, Research Fellow, Adjunct Professor of Law, Georgetown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/851482017-10-18T23:39:14Z2017-10-18T23:39:14ZScientist at work: Measuring public health impacts after disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190687/original/file-20171017-19058-1vmpwto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Crews clean up debris in a neighborhood flooded by Hurricane Harvey in Beaumont, Texas, Sept. 26, 2017. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-County-Considering-Climate/a9ba8f3c8c41405bb7be0343373b4c63/55/0">AP Photo/David Goldman</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two months after Hurricane Harvey submerged much of metropolitan Houston, recovery is under way across the city. Residents and volunteers are <a href="http://sbpusa.org/where-we-help/harvey-recovery">gutting and restoring flooded homes</a>. Government agencies and nonprofit organizations are <a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/san-jacinto-waste-pits-superfund-site-cleanup-plan-approved">announcing cleanup programs</a> and developing plans to <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/houston/article/Officials-dole-out-7-5M-in-Harvey-relief-fund-12250900.php">distribute relief funds</a>.</p>
<p>But many questions remain about impacts on public health. What contaminants did floodwaters leave behind? How many people are being exposed to mold – which can grow rapidly in damp, humid conditions – as they repair their homes? Will there be an increase in Zika, West Nile or other vector-borne diseases as <a href="http://publichealth.harriscountytx.gov/Services-Programs/All-Services/Mosquito-Control-Services">mosquito populations recover</a>? Or an uptick in reported cases of other illnesses?</p>
<p>I am an epidemiologist, and my work focuses on understanding the causes and distribution of illnesses, injuries and deaths among different populations – a critical issue during and after major disasters. Our work starts when the water recedes: We want to find out how well residents were prepared before the storm, and what kinds of health impacts they may be experiencing now or can expect in the future. If they still have unmet needs, we can connect them with information and resources.</p>
<p>Researchers are at work across Texas in areas impacted by Harvey. Here’s what some of us are doing.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LwWDcpV2MCk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Houston homeowners fight mold and standing water after Harvey.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Contaminants left behind</h2>
<p>I’m currently working in Houston with partners from community organizations including <a href="http://tejasbarrios.org/">Texas Environmental Justice Advocacy Services</a> and the <a href="http://www.houstontx.gov/health/">Houston Health Department</a> to sample soil and sediment that was mobilized by flooding during Harvey. </p>
<p>For example, residents of Manchester, a neighborhood in Houston’s East End with many low-income and minority residents, live close to <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/center-science-and-democracy/connecting-scientists-and-communities/double-jeopardy#.Wc017NFOmUk">industrial sites, refineries and chemical storage facilities</a>, many of which were <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/us/harvey-houston-valero-benzene.html?mcubz=0&_r=0">flooded during Harvey</a>. They are worried that contaminated sediments may have been washed into their yards and could threaten their health if dust enters homes as it dries. This is a valid fear. A <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es9812709">1999 study</a> found that dredging in New Bedford, Massachusetts mobilized toxic PCBs from harbor sediments, which later were detected in house dust and yard soil in nearby homes.</p>
<p>We also are working around Buffalo Bayou, a slow-moving river that flows through Houston and buffers the city against flooding. Buffalo Bayou is surrounded by <a href="http://buffalobayou.org/">public recreation areas</a>, including nature trails, bike paths, children’s playgrounds and dog parks. Today trails in some of these parks are covered by up to six feet of <a href="https://www.click2houston.com/news/hurricane-harvey-leaves-behind-piles-of-sediment-at-buffalo-bayou-park">accumulated sediment</a>. We are working with the Houston Health Department to collect and test these sediments for environmental and health hazards.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190695/original/file-20171017-30410-197fvfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190695/original/file-20171017-30410-197fvfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190695/original/file-20171017-30410-197fvfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190695/original/file-20171017-30410-197fvfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190695/original/file-20171017-30410-197fvfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190695/original/file-20171017-30410-197fvfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190695/original/file-20171017-30410-197fvfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190695/original/file-20171017-30410-197fvfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">According to the Environmental Protection Agency, an unknown amount of a dangerous chemical linked to birth defects and cancer may have washed downstream from the San Jacinto River Waste Pits site in Channelview, Texas during flooding from Hurricane Harvey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Harvey-Toxic-Sites-Underwater/2300fe0bcd3244bbaa0aaf68b2a689dd/5/0">AP Photo/John L. Mone</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Documenting contamination is only the first step. Residents, the media and public officials can easily misinterpret lab results and risk predictions, which are based on complex modeling.</p>
<p>To help people understand what these exposures could mean to their short-term and long-term health, we are working with established teams of toxicologists, environmental health specialists, civil engineers, chemists, risk communication specialists and graphic designers as part of Texas A&M’s <a href="http://ifsc.tamu.edu/">Institute for Sustainable Communities</a>. We are also exploring ways to use social media to communicate with residents at risk as part of the university’s new <a href="https://superfund.tamu.edu/">Superfund Research Program</a>. </p>
<p>During and after Harvey, some Houston residents were exposed to complex mixtures of contaminants from <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-houston-chemical-plant-20170831-story.html">chemical plants</a> and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-ap-exclusive-evidence-of-spills-at-toxic-site-during-floods-2017-9">toxic waste sites</a>. We need better, more accessible materials and communication tools to help people understand what kinds of health risks they may face if they have come in contact with industrial chemicals or hazardous waste.</p>
<h2>New data sources</h2>
<p>After major disasters, epidemiologists need ways to determine quickly where the greatest needs lie. Student volunteers from my <a href="https://sph.tamhsc.edu/epi-bio/epi-assist.html">EpiAssist program</a> have helped conduct surveys to rapidly <a href="https://twitter.com/hcphtx/status/916046362541772800">estimate remaining unmet needs</a> and assess <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/hsb/disaster/casper/">how prepared residents were when the storm hit</a>. </p>
<p>We also can measure people’s needs by looking at how they use telecommunications. After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, researchers at Texas A&M’s Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning
analyzed use of <a href="http://www.211texas.org/">2-1-1</a>, a telephone number that Texas used to help Katrina evacuees in Texas to search for services across the state. By studying 2-1-1 data, they were able to identify unmet needs in real time. </p>
<p>Now people are using <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-social-media-apps-should-be-in-your-disaster-kit-83743">social media networks and apps</a> during disasters. After Harvey, many desperate flooding victims <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/28/media/harvey-rescues-social-media-facebook-twitter/index.html">turned to Facebook and Twitter</a> to appeal for help or find supplies. With colleagues from Texas A&M’s Computer Science and Engineering and Health Promotion and Community Health Sciences departments, I am analyzing tweets sent during Harvey to see how volunteer responders provided lifesaving assistance, and to understand risks and exposures that many volunteers may have experienced.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"903988916243619841"}"></div></p>
<h2>Long-term questions</h2>
<p>More information about Harvey’s impacts will become available over time and can tell us a lot. I will be requesting and analyzing data from the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/">Federal Emergency Management Agency</a> to design studies to assess the quality and pace of recovery. </p>
<p>One key priority should be to enroll a large number of Houstonians in a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/PRS.0b013e3181f44abc">cohort study</a> that can follow them over time to see how strongly certain risk factors – such as exposures to contaminated flood waters, chemical spills or leaking Superfund sites – are associated with future illness. Researchers track cohort members’ health by surveying them periodically, collecting biological samples from them and reviewing their medical records.</p>
<p>Studies like this after past disasters have produced important findings. Researchers used a registry of firefighters and emergency responders who were involved in the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2012.110980">identify cancers</a> from exposure to ignited chemicals and materials. The <a href="https://www.niehs.nih.gov/">National Institute for Environmental Health Sciences</a> created a similar <a href="https://gulfstudy.nih.gov/en/index.html">registry</a> after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill to assess health outcomes of people who were involved in cleanup and remediation activities.</p>
<h2>An emerging field</h2>
<p>Epidemiology is <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5334a1.htm">more than 150 years old</a>, but <a href="https://www.elsevier.com/books/disaster-epidemiology/horney/978-0-12-809318-4">applying it in disaster settings</a> is relatively new. Using epidemiologic methods and study designs in post-disaster settings can help identify vulnerable populations, quantify deaths and injuries and determine how disasters have affected public health. It also can lead to better decision-making and use of resources. </p>
<p>Wide-scale disasters can create conditions that foster serious health threats afterward. For example, in Texas and Florida communities that experienced hurricane flooding and where local transmission of Zika has been documented, health officials may need to pay closer attention to people of childbearing age in shelters and put more resources into mosquito control and personal protective measures. Officials in Puerto Rico have reported two confirmed and 10 suspected cases of <a href="http://outbreaknewstoday.com/leptospirosis-cases-reported-puerto-rico-post-hurricane-maria-11119/">leptospirosis</a>, a disease transmitted via contaminated water, in the wake of Hurricane Maria. Amassing more evidence about how disasters affect health will improve readiness, response, recovery and mitigation for all Americans.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This article has been updated to clarify that Zika virus transmission has been documented in Texas and Florida, but Zika is not endemic in the continental United States.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85148/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Horney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Epidemiologists study disease outbreaks in populations to determine who gets sick and why. In the wake of this year’s hurricanes, they are assessing impacts from mold, toxic leaks and other threats.Jennifer Horney, Associate Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatictics, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/845472017-10-06T00:54:52Z2017-10-06T00:54:52ZShould Uncle Sam ‘send in the Marines’ after hurricanes?<p>When humanitarian emergencies flare up, what should prompt the U.S. government to “send in the Marines”?</p>
<p>Disasters like Hurricane Harvey’s floods in Houston and Hurricane Maria’s devastation of Puerto Rico’s roads and power grid can quickly overwhelm civilian authorities and emergency responders. Military support can make a life-or-death difference in those emergencies. </p>
<p>As scholars at the U.S. Naval War College and Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, we have seen that the military can have a profound and positive impact on the immediate response to large-scale disasters such as Hurricanes <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/08/28/this-is-the-u-s-militarys-response-to-hurricane-harvey/?utm_term=.fac12441c5e3">Harvey</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/09/11/white-house-says-its-military-response-to-irma-is-unprecedented-but-theres-actually-a-history-of-similar-operations/?utm_term=.a874b241655e">Irma</a> and <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article175066201.html">Maria</a> or the <a href="https://dialogo-americas.com/en/articles/haiti-five-years-after-earthquake-and-us-military-humanitarian-assistance-mission">Haiti</a> earthquake in 2010.</p>
<p>But soldiers, sailors, marines and aviators are primarily trained to fight, not feed disaster victims. When they report for <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/26/16349644/puerto-rico-humanitarian-crisis">humanitarian duties</a>, it typically costs far more than when civilians handle them. Does their muscle actually go to good use?</p>
<h2>Why deploy the military</h2>
<p>Nonprofits like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hurricane-harvey-donors-shouldnt-boycott-the-red-cross-83289">Red Cross</a> and government agencies like <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-things-that-have-changed-about-fema-since-katrina-and-5-that-havent-83205">FEMA</a> simply don’t have the equipment required following disasters like the one unfolding in <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/10/what-happened-in-puerto-rico-a-timeline-of-hurricane-maria/541956/">Puerto Rico</a> – where millions of people may lack power and clean drinking water for months.</p>
<p>Only <a href="http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/09/21/air-force-delivers-search-rescue-teams-mexico-quake.html">the military</a> can promptly dispatch the <a href="http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/09/21/air-force-delivers-search-rescue-teams-mexico-quake.html">ships and planes</a> required to move people, supplies and fuel. It has the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/news-release/2017/09/11/federal-family-responds-hurricane-irma">electrical generators</a>, <a href="http://www.southcom.mil/Media/Special-Coverage/US-Military-Support-to-Hurricane-Irma-Relief-in-the-Eastern-Caribbean/">water purifiers</a>, bulldozers and lift equipment for <a href="http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/09/21/air-force-delivers-search-rescue-teams-mexico-quake.html">search and rescue</a> operations, debris removal and reconstruction.</p>
<p>At the same time, many military personnel also report that aid missions are good for morale, as countless service members <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1298837/soldiers-take-pride-as-hurricane-harvey-response-continues/">take pride</a> in doing disaster relief.</p>
<p>Having soldiers or sailors airlift people from their flooded homes or distribute hot meals is also great public relations at a time when the U.S. military is engaged in several <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2014-09-16/us-now-involved-134-wars-or-none-depending-your-definition-war">unpopular and protracted conflicts abroad</a>.</p>
<h2>Domestic limits</h2>
<p>While military missions can fill critical gaps in response to large-scale natural disasters like Hurricanes <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/08/31/questions-about-the-u-s-militarys-evolving-response-to-hurricane-harvey-answered/?utm_term=.378913d7bbd4">Harvey</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/09/06/u-s-military-preparations-for-hurricane-irma-now-include-four-navy-ships-and-thousands-of-troops/?utm_term=.1efa03785da1">Irma</a> and Maria, there are also significant limits to the military’s ability to jump in.</p>
<p>For one, there are laws restricting U.S. military operations on U.S. soil. The <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1385">Posse Comitatus Act</a> of 1878 prohibits active duty military personnel from engaging in <a href="http://digitalcommons.law.umaryland.edu/fac_pubs/979/">civilian law enforcement</a>, although the National Guard may be deployed in <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4164096/The_Role_of_the_Military_in_Disaster_Response_in_the_U.S">some circumstances</a>.</p>
<p>Also, under a law known as the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/100th-congress/house-bill/2707">Stafford Act of 1988</a>, the Department of Homeland Security may request military assistance as a last resort in major disasters and emergencies.</p>
<p>These restrictions have <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R42659.pdf">loosened up a little</a> since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, granting the military and National Guard more leeway to support domestic <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4164096/The_Role_of_the_Military_in_Disaster_Response_in_the_U.S">counterterrorism</a> operations. These changes made it easier for the military and National Guard to respond to the recent hurricanes.</p>
<p>But there are no such legal restrictions on how the U.S. military may respond to foreign disasters, as long as host governments request help or consent to it.</p>
<h2>A common call</h2>
<p>According to the Center for Naval Analyses, a federally funded defense research center, the U.S. military <a href="https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/D0008414.A3.pdf">diverted</a> <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jhsem.ahead-of-print/jhsem-2016-0046/jhsem-2016-0046.xml">units</a> from “routine” operations to conduct humanitarian assistance operations 366 times from 1970 to 2000, compared with 22 times for combat missions.</p>
<p>Since 2000, the U.S. armed forces have conducted many massive humanitarian operations around the globe, such as responding to the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami and the 2015 Nepal earthquake, as well as Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Katrina at home. </p>
<p>Given how frequently the military undertakes these missions, preparing for them should be a high priority. But that is not the case. With few <a href="http://www.public.navy.mil/surfor/lha6/Pages/USS-America-Demonstrates-HADR-Capabilities-during-RIMPAC-2016.aspx#.Wc5thZOGOL8">notable exceptions</a>, soldiers, sailors, marines and aviators spend little if any time <a href="https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/44691/14Dec_Winn_Timothy.pdf?sequence=1">training</a> for disaster-response strategies, tactics, policies and procedures.</p>
<h2>Concerns</h2>
<p>When the same people fight wars and distribute food to people in distress, it can quickly <a href="http://sites.tufts.edu/jha/archives/1625">blur the lines</a>, <a href="https://aidworkersecurity.org/sites/default/files/AWSR2017.pdf">exposing aid workers to attack</a>.</p>
<p>That is why aid workers for nonprofit organizations like <a href="http://www.msf.org/en/article/mali-msf-warns-about-use-humanitarian-aid-political-and-military-interests">Doctors Without Borders</a> and <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/quick-impact-quick-collapse-jan-2010.pdf">Oxfam</a> have expressed concerns about what they see as a growing “<a href="https://www.icrc.org/eng/resources/documents/article/editorial/humanitarians-danger-article-2011-02-01.htm">militarization</a>” of humanitarian relief that <a href="http://www.iaeng.org/publication/IMECS2015/IMECS2015_pp1035-1038.pdf">endangers their own safety</a> and hinders their effectiveness.</p>
<p>There is also the high cost of having boots on the ground doing civilian work.</p>
<p>Consider what happened when the U.S. military responded rapidly after the 2010 <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/s1104/text">earthquake in Haiti</a> that left 220,000 people dead, 300,000 injured and 1,500,000 people displaced. More than a third of the total of US$1.12 billion in <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/s1104/text">U.S. aid</a> – $453.5 million – covered the costs of <a href="https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/eoir/legacy/2013/06/13/USAID_Haiti_May212010.pdf">military transport, personnel and supplies</a>.</p>
<p>According to estimates by Aruna Apte at the Naval Postgraduate School and Keenan Yoho at Rollins College, the U.S. spent <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jhsem.ahead-of-print/jhsem-2016-0046/jhsem-2016-0046.xml">more than $17 million</a> just to operate a single aircraft carrier nearby for 17 days – not counting personnel costs. </p>
<p>Aircraft carriers are essentially floating airfields that make it easier to access otherwise impossible-to-reach areas, facilitating evacuations. Although they can dispatch critical food, water and medicine, there are usually better ways to deliver aid after disasters.</p>
<p>For context, that $17 million could have covered the cost of all of the humanitarian organization Save the Children’s <a href="http://www.savethechildren.org/site/c.8rKLIXMGIpI4E/b.6235787/k.671F/Haiti_Emergency_Response.htm">health programs in Haiti between 2010 and 2012</a>.</p>
<h2>Finding the balance</h2>
<p>Despite the big price tag, military involvement in disaster relief is bound to grow. That’s because global humanitarian organizations are already stretched thin by <a href="https://www.unocha.org/sites/unocha/files/GHO_2017.pdf">competing needs</a>.
<a href="http://www.unhcr.org/5943e8a34.pdf">Conflict-driven migration</a> is growing, and severe storms are becoming more common as a result of <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php">climate change</a> – along with the higher sea levels scientists say it is causing.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Trump administration wants to cut <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-state-idUSKBN16N0DQ">civilian government spending</a> while boosting <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/president-trumps-hard-power-budget/519702/">the Pentagon’s budget</a>.</p>
<p>But we believe it would be a huge mistake for the government to rely primarily on the armed forces in the aftermath of disasters.</p>
<p>The military’s unique capacity can be incredibly useful in the short term. Yet even when its help is most needed, these deployments should be brief and tailored.</p>
<p>Other than in the immediate aftermath of the biggest emergencies, the government should activate civilian emergency responders and humanitarian aid groups instead of sending the Marines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84547/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The military can make a big difference right away but humanitarian deployments should generally be rare and brief.Julia Brooks, Researcher in international law and humanitarian response, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI), Harvard UniversityDavid Polatty, Director, Civilian-Military Humanitarian Response Program, US Naval War CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/842472017-10-03T10:11:04Z2017-10-03T10:11:04ZAfter a disaster, contaminated floodwater can pose a threat for months to come<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188025/original/file-20170928-1488-1xmjvl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What's in the water?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, reporters <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/31/us/houston-contaminated-floodwaters.html">warned</a> of a “stew of toxic chemicals, sewage, debris and waste” in Houston’s floodwaters. </p>
<p>It isn’t just Harvey. Hurricanes Irma and Maria and other floods and storms heighten the risks for contamination, environmental hazards and <a href="http://doi.org/10.4161/21505594.2014.975022">disease</a>. <a href="http://www.who.int/hac/techguidance/ems/flood_cds/en/">Public health experts</a> frequently warn about the unique dangers to those evacuating from or returning to disaster-affected areas. Sadly, in the stress of the situation, these risks are often overlooked. </p>
<p>Before wading through floodwaters full of chemical spills, biotoxins, invasive species, waste, sewage and debris, it’s important to know what to watch out for and how to avoid getting hurt. </p>
<h1>Bacterial illness</h1>
<p>After epic hurricanes, <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s40257-015-0138-4">bacterial illnesses</a> are a common problem. </p>
<p>Hurricane <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25099408">floodwaters</a> may be contaminated by sewage with E. coli bacteria, which can cause serious <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s11908-011-0225-5">gastrointestinal illness</a>. <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s40257-015-0138-4">Bacterial pathogens</a> such as Staphylococcus and Streptococcus can lead to skin infections. Shigella can cause gastrointestinal illness in the form of diarrhea, vomiting, fever, stomach pain and dehydration.</p>
<p>After Hurricane Katrina, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm54d914a1.htm">surveys</a> identified <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-harvey-infectious-diseases-flood-water-bacteria-viruses-656093">cases</a> of Vibrio illness, a bacterial illness classically associated with exposure to saltwater or brackish water. This illness led to a handful of fatalities.</p>
<p>Storms and floods also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X17006574">increase the risk</a> for <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/leptospirosis/index.html">leptospirosis</a>. This bacterial disease, if left untreated, can lead to kidney damage, liver failure and even death.</p>
<p>Inhaling airborne moisture droplets can also put you at risk for <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-harvey-infectious-diseases-flood-water-bacteria-viruses-656093">Legionnaires’ disease</a>, which is caused by Legionella, a freshwater bacteria that easily spreads to human-made water systems during floods. This can lead to pneumonia-type symptoms, as well as gastrointestinal illness.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X17006574">One review</a> found that storms heightened the risk of poisonings, wounds, gastrointestinal infections and skin or soft tissue infections, primarily from Staph and strep infections. </p>
<p>Many of these <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s40257-015-0138-4">bacterial illnesses</a> resolve on their own, but some require antibiotics. Tetanus prophylaxis vaccines can prevent bacterial infections through open cuts.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">From chemicals to mosquitoes, standing floodwaters carry a long list of public health risks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Toxic chemicals and gases</h2>
<p>Chemical leaks and spills in floodwater can pose serious risks to human health.</p>
<p>When any flood or hurricane hits an urban industrial area, there’s a risk of toxic gases, such as as methane and sulfur dioxide, as well as industrial chemicals like benzene and butadiene, which can potentially cause cancer after large or chronic exposures. After Hurricane Harvey, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/08/us/houston-hurricane-harvey-harzardous-chemicals.html">more than 40 sites</a> reportedly released hazardous pollutants. </p>
<p>Hurricane Harvey caused flooding or damage to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/08/us/houston-hurricane-harvey-harzardous-chemicals.html">at least 14 Superfund toxic waste sites</a> in and around Houston. These sites are contaminated with dioxins, lead, arsenic and mercury, as well as other dangerous industrial compounds. These can cause serious health issues in the brain, blood and kidneys. </p>
<p>Many natural gas and other <a href="http://www.denverpost.com/2017/09/09/oil-gas-tank-failures-hurricane-harvey-pollution/">fuel lines</a> were also broken during Hurricanes Harvey and Katrina. Abandoned buildings may host highly explosive gas vapors. Methane and other explosive gases may also accumulate from decaying materials. </p>
<h2>Other threats</h2>
<p>Floodwaters can make houses especially hospitable to <a href="https://www.epa.gov/mold/mold-cleanup-your-home">mold</a>, particularly in humid conditions like Texas, Puerto Rico and Florida. Multiplying mold spores carry <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-bleach-mold-a-long-term-problem-after-flooding-and-disasters-84399">serious public health risks</a>, especially for people with existing mold allergies and asthma. </p>
<p>Standing water is also likely to cause an uptick in <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/zika/vector/mosquitoes-and-hurricanes.html">mosquito</a> populations. Mosquitoes are vectors for a number of <a href="https://theconversation.com/harvey-and-irma-present-nearly-perfect-conditions-for-zika-spreading-mosquitoes-83938">serious viruses</a>, including Zika and yellow fever.</p>
<p>Standing water and humid conditions may also increase human encounters with <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/9316257/ns/health-health_care/t/snake-bites-stomach-aches-katrinas-wake/#.WcUGBRNSzeQ">venomous snakes</a>, <a href="https://www.inquisitr.com/4463981/alligators-snakes-new-danger-in-hurricane-flooding-disoriented-gators-show-up-on-doorsteps/">fire ants</a> and stinging insects. Many of these animals may have been flooded out of their nests.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"901912379470077952"}"></div></p>
<p>What’s more, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2012.06.003">rates of death</a> may increase by up to 50 percent in the first year after a flood, secondary to outbreaks of diseases such as hepatitis E, gastrointestinal disease and leptospirosis.</p>
<h1>What to do?</h1>
<p>If you live in an area that’s at risk for hurricanes and storms, you can take steps now to protect yourself. </p>
<p>Make sure smoke and carbon monoxide detectors are properly functioning. You should also invest in basement sump pumps and flood insurance if you live near a river, coastline or floodplain. Flood insurance can give you the necessary support to quickly clean up, evacuate and repair damaged buildings.</p>
<p>Survivors of Harvey, Irma, Maria and other storms should make every effort to limit their contact with floodwater. Often, particularly in the aftermath, this can be unavoidable. If possible, wait until the water level goes down or try to obtain transportation by boat.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="lBhmf" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lBhmf/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>Open all windows when entering a building. If you smell gas or hear the sound of escaping gas, don’t smoke, operate electrical switches or create any other source of ignition. Leave the building immediately, leaving the door open. Don’t go back inside until you are told by authorities that it is safe to do so.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/mold/reenter.html">Remove standing water</a> as quickly as possible. Remove wet materials and discard those that cannot be thoroughly cleaned and dried. Materials that have been wet for longer than 48 hours may need to be discarded, as they will likely remain a source of <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-bleach-mold-a-long-term-problem-after-flooding-and-disasters-84399">mold</a>.</p>
<p>Dry out the building. This will take time and may require the extensive disinfection and removal of some materials. Heavily contaminated floodwaters can penetrate deep into soaked, porous materials such as drywall and wood, later releasing microorganisms and other contaminants into air or water. Microorganisms will continue to grow as long as materials remain wet and humidity is high. </p>
<p>When cleaning, limit exposure to airborne mold spores by wearing gloves, goggles and a respirator, if available, or a dust mask, so you can avoid breathing in contaminated vapor or mist. If there’s no standing water in the building and it’s safe to use electricity, use fans both during and after the use of cleaning products.</p>
<p>Exercise caution when disturbing building materials such as floor tiles, pipe insulation and paint. <a href="https://www.epa.gov/large-scale-residential-demolition/asbestos-containing-materials-acm-and-demolition#asbestos-adi-guidance">These</a> may contain hazards such as <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-09/documents/floods.pdf">asbestos</a> and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/lead/post-disaster-renovations-and-lead-based-paint">lead</a>.</p>
<p>Many will use gas-powered generators to pump out floodwater. But beware – those generators can produce poisonous carbon monoxide gas in enclosed areas. In fact, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq/carbon-monoxides-impact-indoor-air-quality">cases of poisoning by carbon monoxide</a> typically increase after disasters due to the improper use of fuel-burning devices.</p>
<p>You should also be on the alert for leaking containers and reactive household chemicals, like caustic drain cleaners and chlorine bleach. Stay away from leaking or spilled chemicals – even if a container is broken, it’s best to leave it undisturbed until it can be properly disposed of by authorities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84247/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Natural disasters expose people to toxic gases, bacterial illness and other serious dangers. How can people maximize their safety as they return home?Timothy B. Erickson, Faculty in Medical Toxicology, Brigham & Women's Hospital, Harvard UniversityJulia Brooks, Researcher in international law and humanitarian response, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI), Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/843992017-09-28T00:31:47Z2017-09-28T00:31:47ZBeyond bleach: Mold a long-term problem after flooding and disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187101/original/file-20170921-21037-lwigo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Florentina Amaya of Houston looks at mold damage to her home, Sept. 5, 2017. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Harvey/f7303b11267a497ca1de485706b2edef/4/0">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the biggest issues surrounding flooding after natural disasters is mold, a problem that can stay with a structure long after floodwaters have receded. Considering that over <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2791814/">17 percent of homes</a> already have some physical condition that contributes to leaks and that mold grows in temperatures between 40 degrees Fahrenheit and 100°F, there is no wonder that we see mold and mildew problems after a disaster that brings flooding in homes and buildings.</p>
<p>Molds are fungi. Dampness supports mold and can create an unhealthy living space for people. When present in large quantities, all molds are allergenic and potentially harmful. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/08/29/the-health-consequences-to-expect-from-hurricane-harveys-floods/?utm_term=.20ad5352205d">Mold was implicated in the deaths</a> of four Southern University at New Orleans professors after Hurricane Katrina, and mold remained a persistent problem in thousands of homes even after cleanup. </p>
<p>I have been an extension agent, or someone who shares the university’s consumer and agricultural research advances directly with the public, working with indoor environmental quality issues for over 20 years. From my work, I know that the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mold/dampness_facts.htm">health effects from exposure to mold </a>can be short-term or long-term. But there’s a lot people can do to reduce or avoid potential problems. </p>
<h2>Fast action essential</h2>
<p>Always consider safety first when going back into a flooded home. Check for structural stability. If damage was severe, you may need to call a specialist to inspect your home to ensure it is safe to enter. </p>
<p>For areas that are less than 10 square feet, the <a href="http://www.nchh.org">National Center for Healthy Housing</a> recommends that homeowners or renters clean it up themselves. For larger areas, consider using a professional. Hire a mold inspection or remediation professional affiliated with or certified by the <a href="https://www.neha.org">National Environmental Health Association</a>, <a href="https://www.aiha.org/Pages/default.aspx">the American Industrial Hygiene Association </a>, the<a href="http://www.iicrc.org"> Institute of Inspection, Cleaning and Restoration Certification </a> or the <a href="https://www.acac.org">American Council for Accredited Certification </a> to inspect, repair and restore the damaged parts of your home. </p>
<p>If you do the work yourself, keep children away while work is being done. For bigger jobs or for more protection, use a <a href="http://blog.pksafety.com/what-does-p100-mean/">P100</a>, which blocks 99.9 percent of all particulates, or a P95 respirator. Wear eye protection that does not have open vent holes. Use gloves that are nonlatex, vinyl, nitrile or rubber and coveralls to protect clothing. </p>
<p>Change into “work” clothes before entering the work area and remove when leaving. </p>
<p>You may need to contain the area to prevent the spread of the spores. (Check out HUD’s <a href="https://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=HH_Rebuild_2015_DR.pdf">Rebuild Healthy Homes</a> publication for more great information, including on how to create a containment area.)</p>
<p>Identify the extent of the damage, what you can do to stop it from continuing to get in and how to protect people in the space.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A meter for measuring moisture content can be helpful.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/587373104?src=H_1nn8SbD8LxXxxffuIxUw-1-20&size=small_jpg">Andrey_Popov/www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A <a href="https://www.grainger.com/content/qt-types-of-moisture-meters-346">moisture meter</a> can be useful in determining how wet a material is, as well as identifying the source. Something that looks dry may have hidden moisture. <a href="http://www.cisllc.org/pdf/wmc.pdf">Wood moisture</a> content should be less than 16 percent. </p>
<p>Dry the wet areas – completely – as quickly as you can after the event. The water content is the most critical factor in determining if fungi can germinate and grow on a surface. Mold grows on almost any material that stays wet more than about two days. The longer the mold and wetness remain, the faster it spreads. And it is a survivor. It can grow even in dry spaces with humidity levels between 25 percent and 70 percent.</p>
<p>If you have mud and silt, shovel it out before it dries. Open doors, cabinets and drawers and use air-conditioning, heaters, fans and dehumidifiers to remove moisture. But if mold has started to grow, do not use fans, as they can spread the mold spores. </p>
<h2>To bleach, or not to bleach?</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supplies for removing mold include a hard brush and cleaning solution, but not necessarily bleach.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/black-mold-corner-room-wall-preparation-532074880?src=j-xqbso9DZzv50Y3oy331g-1-2">Burdun Iliya/www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many people want to reach for bleach when they first see mold. While bleach can be effective in killing mold on nonporous surfaces such as tile and porcelain, it does not work on wood and other porous material, such as drywall. On those surfaces, bleach can actually encourage more mold growth. Bleach does not prevent the regrowth of new colonies when materials stay damp. </p>
<p>If you do use bleach on bathroom and other nonporous surfaces, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advises that you use no more than <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mold/faqs.htm">one cup of household bleach to one gallon of water</a>. Make sure you open windows and ventilate your work space. </p>
<p>Also, do not use bleach on air conditioning systems, as bleach is corrosive. Do not use on fine wood furnishings, as it can raise the grain.</p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mold/faqs.htm">never mix bleach</a> with ammonia; that can cause toxic fumes. </p>
<h2>Sometimes, letting go can be best</h2>
<p>Discard items that cannot be washed and disinfected. Remove carpeting, padding, draperies, upholstered furniture, pillows, stuffed animals and mattresses, as they absorb water quickly and dry slowly. </p>
<p>Ceiling tiles that are wet lose their insulative properties and need to be replaced. If you are removing building materials, like flooring or popcorn ceilings, trim or siding, be aware that in older homes they may have lead paint and asbestos. </p>
<p>Cleaning mold means we must remove it, not just kill it. Dead spores can still cause health problems. Wipe or vacuum the area. If using a vacuum, consider using one that has a<a href="http://www.bephc.gatech.edu/glossary/high-efficiency-particulate-arrestance-hepa"> High Efficiency Particulate Arrestance filter</a>. Professionals use commercial certified HEPA filter vacuums. Then, use a nonphosphate cleaning solution and hot water. Use cloths, stiff brushes and, if needed, mist-spray bottles. Do not use high-pressure sprayers, as this could dislodge and spread mold spores. </p>
<p>And finally, keep an eye out for new growth or continued dampness. Remember, mold can form in as little as two to three days. Check the outside grade to make sure you have good drainage of rainwater away from your house. Make sure you are using indoor humidity controls like bathroom and kitchen exhaust fans vented to the outside to help prevent added moisture. </p>
<p>If you see new mold, repeat cleaning and drying procedures. In some cases, it may mean that extended removal of building materials may be needed. </p>
<p>Keep in mind that damage to your home may cause you to have an emotional reaction. This is normal. Refocus your attention on positive things and what you can do. You can safely repair and rebuild your home after water damage.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84399/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Allen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even when power is restored and floodwaters have receded after hurricanes, mold can still be a big problem. There are some things you can do on your own, but the damage can be extensive.Katherine Allen, County Extension Director and Family and Consumer Sciences Agent IV, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/839282017-09-27T00:56:40Z2017-09-27T00:56:40ZHow to select a disaster relief charity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187572/original/file-20170926-32444-1wx7u6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Actress Jennifer Garner, a Save the Children trustee and ambassador, helped distribute supplies after Hurricane Harvey.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Save-the-Children-Houston-Relief-Efforts/f72389c21cd143ab80368ca8291cbb73/142/0">Anthony Rathbun/Save the Children via AP Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Harvey. Irma. Jose. Maria. Massive earthquakes. Epic floods. As with <a href="https://theconversation.com/american-generosity-after-disasters-4-questions-answered-83277">previous disasters</a>, millions of Americans have already made donations to help with the latest ones.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://variety.com/2017/tv/news/hand-in-hand-hurricane-relief-telethon-final-donation-count-1202564642/">telethon</a> packed with stars like George Clooney, Beyoncé and Stevie Wonder aired on all major TV networks, raising at least US$55 million for hurricane relief. Donations to the Greater Houston Community Foundation’s <a href="https://ghcf.org/">Hurricane Harvey Relief Fund</a> so far stand at $67 million. And <a href="https://www.redcross.org/donate/cm/telemundo-pub">Telemundo</a> and <a href="https://laopinion.com/2017/09/24/todo-lo-que-paso-en-el-emotivo-teleton-de-univision-por-las-victimas-de-los-huracanes-y-el-terremoto/">Univision</a>, the two biggest U.S. Spanish language TV networks, are <a href="http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/la-et-entertainment-news-updates-telemundo-and-univision-each-announce-1506013606-htmlstory.html">encouraging donations</a> to support earthquake survivors in Mexico and Guatemala and to help Puerto Rico recover from Hurricane Maria. </p>
<p>As a scholar who has studied philanthropy after disasters, I’m hearing from friends and colleagues that the growing number of charities responding to these emergencies is making them unsure about which one to support. If you are feeling the same way, here’s my advice.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UysJARy1u2I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Backed by a full gospel choir, Stevie Wonder performed the Bill Withers song ‘Lean on Me’ during the Hand in Hand telethon to benefit victims of Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Decide what’s important to you</h2>
<p>Giving is a personal decision. What motivates people often depends on things like core values and the issues they’re passionate about. So, before you search for the right charity, clarify a few things.</p>
<p>Do you prefer to support local, national or global organizations? Would you rather give directly to individuals in need? </p>
<p>National and international organizations have specialized expertise. Local groups know the territory. <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bypass-charities-give-hurricane-victims-directly-150931258.html">GoFundMe campaigns</a> connect you with real people whose stories you may find relatable. </p>
<p>The Red Cross, the biggest disaster relief nonprofit, operates everywhere. But it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hurricane-harvey-donors-shouldnt-boycott-the-red-cross-83289">under fire</a>, with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/08/28/people-are-urging-donations-for-harvey-relief-efforts-just-not-to-the-red-cross/?utm_term=.304f3d2b3ef7">some critics urging</a> donors to bypass it.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.salvationarmyusa.org/usn/help-disaster-survivors/">The Salvation Army</a> (a national organization), the <a href="http://www.houstonfoodbank.org/">Houston Food Bank</a> (a local organization) and <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/">GoFundMe</a> (a platform for giving directly to people in need) are all responding to the latest hurricanes.</p>
<p>Also consider timing. Do you care more about helping people immediately or over the long term? Hurricane survivors need <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/local/weather/homes-destroyed-and-streets-flooded-in-puerto-rico-after-maria/2017/09/20/621abe72-9e7f-11e7-b2a7-bc70b6f98089_video.html?utm_term=.55447afed2be">food, shelter and other basics right away</a>. But relief efforts may take <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/29/houston-texas-harvey-recovery-efforts">many years</a> as devastated communities rebuild.</p>
<p>Once you set these priorities, seek groups that do the kind of work you care about most. </p>
<h2>Giving options</h2>
<p>No matter where emergencies arise, international organizations such as <a href="https://www.redcross.org/ns/apology/disaster_homepage.html">Red Cross</a>, the <a href="http://www.salvationarmyusa.org/">Salvation Army</a>, <a href="http://www.americares.org/en/what-we-do/emergency-programs/">Americares</a> and the United Nations Children’s Fund (<a href="https://www.unicefusa.org/mission/emergencies">UNICEF</a>) respond and provide relief.</p>
<p>But they aren’t your only options. After an earthquake, hurricane or other tragedy, many established charities adapt their services to respond to the needs that emerge, as I learned in <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0275074009336205">research I conducted</a> about how nonprofits responded to the 9/11 terrorist attacks.</p>
<p>Many media outlets and charity information sites compile lists with good options, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/20/16338698/donate-hurricane-earthquake-relief-recovery">including Vox</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2017/09/11/hurricane-irma-how-you-can-help/653373001/">USAToday</a>, <a href="http://www.guidestar.org/Home.aspx">Guidestar</a> and <a href="http://www.charitynavigator.org">Charity Navigator</a>.</p>
<p>After you find the groups that align with your interests, visit their websites. Read their mission statements. Look for descriptions of how they’re helping. </p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<p><iframe id="VKsRC" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VKsRC/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<h2>Results</h2>
<p>Knowing what matters to you and what your giving options are is a good start, but not enough. You also need to make sure a charity is likely to make a difference with your money. </p>
<p>Most people donate <a href="http://disasterphilanthropy.org/notable-research/philanthropic-grantmaking-disasters-lessons-learned-conrad-n-hilton-foundation/">in the first two months</a> following a hurricane or earthquake. That means that when you research your giving options, the best information you’re likely to find is what an organization plans to do or is doing right now.</p>
<p>That’s useful, but it doesn’t tell you whether they’ll do a good job. </p>
<p>Given that challenge, what kind of information can help you make a good decision? Results from past work, whether in disaster response or something else, can at least tell you something about reliability. Any nonprofit asking for your money after a hurricane or earthquake (or at any time, for that matter) should make it easy to find information about results on their website. </p>
<p>Look for answers to these questions. After the last disaster: </p>
<ul>
<li>Did they spend all the money they received? </li>
<li>How did they spend it?</li>
<li>Did the money make a meaningful difference in addressing people’s needs? </li>
</ul>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.unitedway.org/">United Way</a> often plays a major role in disaster relief. It distributes the money it raises to community groups that help those affected. <a href="https://www.unitedwaygreenbrier.org/flood-recovery">Its own report</a> about its response to West Virginia floods last year addresses the questions I identified. The Robin Hood Foundation set another good example when it <a href="https://www.robinhood.org/programs/special-initiatives/relief/hurricane-sandy/grants/">reported</a> on its work following Superstorm Sandy. </p>
<p>Details about results can be hard to find on charity websites, but organizations providing disaster relief should provide it.</p>
<p>For instance, the Red Cross website includes <a href="http://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/publications">a long list of publications</a> regarding its responses to disasters, and the Salvation Army has posted videos, with more limited information, that describe its efforts in response to <a href="http://newyork.salvationarmy.org/ways-we-help/disaster-relief/disaster-services/">Hurricane Katrina</a> and the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUx3cpglYeU&t=4s">Haiti earthquake</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.guidestar.org/Home.aspx">Guidestar</a> is a good information source because it enables charities to upload results-related information on its site. For example, The Humane Society of the United States provides results information on <a href="https://www.guidestar.org/profile/53-0225390">its Guidestar page</a> and also describes <a href="http://www.humanesociety.org/about/hsus-transformational-change.html?credit=web_id93480558">accomplishments</a> on its website. </p>
<p>If the organization does not provide results information, look for other performance clues. The Houston Food Bank website, for instance, includes a section called “<a href="http://www.houstonfoodbank.org/aboutus/kudos/">kudos</a>” listing awards and recognition. The fact that <a href="http://www.feedingamerica.org/">Feeding America</a>, a national network of food banks, has named it “Food Bank of the Year” shows that experts in the field regard it highly.</p>
<h2>Red flags</h2>
<p>Finally, use charity rating sites to discover if you should be concerned about the group you want to support.</p>
<p>These sites score nonprofits by applying their own criteria, making comparison easy. What they rate varies but usually includes financial performance, management practices and transparency. <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=content.view&cpid=1284">Charity Navigator</a>, the <a href="http://www.give.org/">Better Business Bureau/Wise Giving Alliance</a> and <a href="https://www.charitywatch.org/home">Charity Watch</a> are among the best-known.</p>
<p>Before giving, consult one or more of them to ensure that the nonprofit you want to support has a high score and to see whether there are other reasons for concern. One good resource is Charity Navigator’s frequently updated <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.cnadvisories">donor advisory</a> list. It catalogs everything from reports of <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=17350">embezzled funds</a> and <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=16832">fraud</a> to <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=3691">managerial disarray</a>. </p>
<p>Give what you can spare after disasters. But, as the old adage suggests, good intentions don’t always yield good results. Doing a little research and following these guidelines can help you feel more confident about your donations and the difference they will make.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83928/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Campbell previously served on Charity Navigator's Academic Advisory Board and on the board of the United Way of New York State from 2012-2014. His husband works for the United Way chapter in New York's Broome County. </span></em></p>After a hurricane strikes or an earthquake makes shockwaves, support nonprofits that are clear about what they do and how they will spend your money.David Campbell, Associate Professor of Public Administration, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/844092017-09-21T17:36:10Z2017-09-21T17:36:10ZQ&A: how cities can recover from natural disasters<p><em>In the space of a month, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/20/mexico-earthquake-volunteers-survivors-rescue">hundreds of lives</a> have been lost due to natural disasters. Mexico was hit by <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/20/americas/mexico-two-earthquakes-in-one-month/index.html">two high-magnitude earthquakes</a> within two weeks, while swathes of the US and the Caribbean have been severely damaged or destroyed by the force of three successive hurricanes: <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-blame-climate-change-for-the-hurricane-harvey-disaster-blame-society-83163">Harvey</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-41172545">Irma</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/20/hurricane-maria-takes-aim-at-puerto-rico-with-force-not-seen-in-modern-history/?utm_term=.cb91cd33129c">Maria</a>. The Conversation spoke to Alfredo Stein Heinemann – a lecturer in urban development planning with more than 30 years of experience studying post-disaster reconstruction – to see how communities can mitigate and recover from the devastation wrought by natural disasters.</em> </p>
<hr>
<h2>Who are the people at greatest risk from natural disasters?</h2>
<p>In my experience from different places around the world, the people who suffer most when disasters happen are the urban poor. Usually, in these communities, the materials that people use to build their houses are substandard. Also, because land is so expensive in the city, the poor end up living in areas that are more vulnerable to the impacts of earthquakes or hurricanes. </p>
<p>What is interesting about the recent earthquake in Mexico, is that the affected areas that we have seen through the images transmitted worldwide seem relatively well off, and many of the buildings that have collapsed were located in middle-class neighbourhoods. Compared to the earthquake which <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/sep/18/mexico-city-earthquake-30-years-lessons">hit Mexico City in 1985</a> and killed 5,000 people, there were far fewer casualties this time around, and there’s no doubt that building codes, norms and practices have improved in the city over the last few decades. </p>
<p>But still, I think there are ongoing issues regarding corruption and malpractice when it comes to construction regulations and supervision – not only in Mexico, but across the world – where building companies sometimes use less robust materials in order to reduce costs. It’s a bit like what <a href="https://theconversation.com/grenfell-tower-fire-tragedy-reveals-ugly-flaws-of-regeneration-agenda-79452">the controversy</a> we saw during the recent fire at Grenfell Tower in London. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"910351728641527808"}"></div></p>
<h2>How long will it be until authorities can ensure that buildings are safe?</h2>
<p>Inspecting buildings to assess whether they have structural damage can actually be quite a rapid process. If there are good civil engineers who have experience in post-disaster reconstruction, they can make the appraisals within days. My concern with this kind of disaster is related to the processes that come afterwards, when the limelight fades away and no one is paying attention anymore. </p>
<p>In neighbourhoods that were already well established, there is going to be land speculation. In existing neighbourhoods where low-income families were living side by side with middle- and even upper-class households, there will be a push from private developers to buy up the buildings that were damaged or collapsed, so that they can rebuild costly apartments there instead. So you end up with new buildings that only higher income households can afford.</p>
<p>For example, after the flooding and landslides caused by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Hurricane-Mitch">Hurricane Mitch in Honduras</a> in 1998, some slums and informal settlements - especially those located near river banks – were declared uninhabitable. The scarcity of affordable land in cities was one factor which led to the relocation of low income households far from where they originally lived, and allowed higher income groups and developers <a href="http://www.globalurban.org/GUDMag07Vol3Iss1/Pearce-Oroz.htm">to capture</a> many of these vacant plots of land. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187073/original/file-20170921-21016-gukz7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Going upmarket: Tegucigalpa, Honduras.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A similar thing happened in Chile, in the city of Talca, where <a href="http://www.academia.edu/13030282/Gentrification_in_the_context_of_post-_earthquake_reconstruction_urban_policies_A_review_of_the_Chilean_experience">preliminary research</a> has shown that neighbourhoods which were quite mixed in the past have started to become gentrified in the reconstruction process that began after the 2010 earthquake. The problem is that national and local governments sometimes rush to declare certain areas unsafe, not knowing that this opens the way for property speculation, and eventually market evictions. </p>
<p>That’s one of the reasons, if you ask me, that people should not necessarily be permanently relocated or displaced from the places they were living; because that place is their home, it’s near where they work and it’s where their whole social network is located. </p>
<h2>So what can be done to help communities stick together and stay in the place they call home, in the wake of a natural disaster?</h2>
<p>The most important thing is not to treat people like victims. They have been hit by an earthquake or a hurricane, and they are are in a state of shock, and they will probably need a lot of assistance. But they are the ones who have been affected, and as such, they should be key part of the decisions and reconstruction and rebuilding processes. </p>
<p>External forces, such as governments and aid agencies, as well as architects and engineers, need to help communities to be a part of that process, rather than making decisions on their behalf. Communities need to be active and involved, not just passively waiting for things to happen. The images of solidarity of people working together and helping their neighbours in both Mexico and the Caribbean are therefore encouraging. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"910917069843177473"}"></div></p>
<p>Governments and NGOs helping with reconstruction also need to be aware of the social networks and economic activities that local people had before, and try to rebuild those, too. </p>
<p>My main message is: do not relocate people. One of the main reasons that the recovery effort has been so slow in Haiti is that people were moved kilometres away from where they used to live – many are still in temporary shelters almost eight years after the 2011 earthquake. </p>
<h2>Experts are predicting that extreme weather events are going to become <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/8/28/16213268/harvey-climate-change">even more severe</a> – do you think that people living in vulnerable places might one day be forced to abandon their homes?</h2>
<p>I answer this with another question: would you ever think of evacuating London because there is a possibility of flooding? And the answer would be no, because we would find the technological and financial resources to invest in making the city more resilient. </p>
<p>Severe and extreme weather events are part of our daily life from now onward, and we have to learn to live with them. Life will continue in the Caribbean, life will continue in Mexico City, and I think that – rather than considering moving people out of these places – we need to be considering what we can do to minimise the impacts of climate change or future earthquakes. </p>
<p>Of course, when you have two hurricanes of this scale hitting you in a row, it’s like having two massive heart attacks one after the other. But there are ways of building with appropriate technology, which can reduce the possibility of buildings being totally destroyed, while making disaster recovery more straightforward. </p>
<p>Instead of people going and living in vulnerable and at risk areas, enact policies that enable people to access safer land with services where to live at an affordable price near the places where they work. Introduce small credit schemes, which enable people to build their own homes to high standards, with technical assistance, while still having the capacity to repay the loans. Invest in infrastructure to stabilise plots and make land liveable. These are the types of measures that we should be thinking of, especially in cities which are very prone to those types of disasters. </p>
<p>Another problem with big disaster stories like those we have experienced in the past month – especially as they relate to the impacts of severe and extreme weather – is that low-income households living in vulnerable areas in cities across the world are suffering more from short and intense torrential rainfall that can cause small landslides or flooding of 10 or 15 houses in a slum in one hour, and intense heat waves that affect elderly and infants and dry out the sources of water nearby. The daily impacts of these weather events is eroding the assets of the urban poor. And because these are not disaster stories, we don’t hear about them. </p>
<h2>How can the governments of poorer countries afford to invest in measures like these, to make it easier to deal with disasters when they occur?</h2>
<p>Poor people have resources. I’m not just talking about the house that they have already built by their own means; people also have social networks, education, health – they have their own income-generating activities. So you can always rely on those resources that people already possess, to help with disaster recovery and to take adaption measures that help to reduce or mitigate the risk of future weather events. </p>
<p>It’s amazing to see, when you visit the slums, how <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247813519046">people are already taking measures</a>; for example, inside their homes they raise their beds and electrical equipment off the floor when they know that the floods are coming. The problem is that academics, aid agencies or governments are not able to see what people are already doing. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7Z0swRC_pV0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Consider that <a href="http://csud.ei.columbia.edu/files/2012/04/Slumdwellers-complete.pdf">about ten years ago</a>, the majority of houses in the developing world were not built by the governments or private companies, they were built by the efforts of the people. It’s possible to leverage local resources and support people to take preventive measures through partnerships with the public and private sectors – whether that’s philanthropic agencies like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, or private companies and banks. The role of governments is to enable the formation of these partnerships. </p>
<p>By providing better technical assistance, and allocating a small amount of resources to improve the quality of housing, you can effectively mobilise local resources to help solve the problem. Co-financing and micro-lending schemes such as <a href="http://www.microfinancegateway.org/sites/default/files/mfg-en-case-study-participation-and-sustainability-in-social-projects-the-experience-of-the-local-development-program-prodel-in-nicaragua-jun-2000.pdf">PRODEL</a> in Nicaragua give people the power to make adaptations and take preventive measures, using their own resources together with finance from local government, the private sector or international aid agencies. These types of programs exist in different parts of the world, and more and more you see organised communities having this capacity to negotiate with local governments. </p>
<p>Instead of waiting for services to be delivered, people are saying to their local governments “we will invest our work, our labour, our resources, if you will allow and help us in providing services in these communities”. So when there are these dramatic events, it’s important not to lose sight of the fact that the main resources needed for recovery are already there, and that’s people themselves, with their own capacities, professions and social networks. That is where reconstruction begins.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84409/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>As member of the Global Urban Research Group, University of Manchester Alfredo Stein Heinemann received a research grant from the Nordic Development Fund (NDF) through the Inter American Development Bank (IADB) for a project on Climate Change Adaptation in Tegucigalpa, Honduras. He was pro-bono advisor to Comic Relief's Urban Upgrading Programme.As a member of the Global Urban Research Group (GURG), University of Manchester, Alfredo Stein Heinemann received a applied research grant from the Nordic Development Fund (NDF) through the Inter American Development Bank (IADB) for a project on Asset Planning for Climate Change Adaptation in Tegucigalpa, Honduras. He was also part of a team of GURG that implemented research projects on pro-poor climate change adaptation in cities of the global South funded by the Social Division of the World Bank and the Ford Foundation. He worked for the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) in post-emergency reconstruction projects in Central America, and has also been a pro-bono advisor the Comic Relief’s urban slum upgrading programme.</span></em></p>An expert in post-disaster reconstruction explains what works, and what doesn’t, when it comes to rebuilding a city.Alfredo Stein Heinemann, Lecturer in Urban Development Planning, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.