tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/idaho-25675/articlesIdaho – The Conversation2023-08-30T12:16:10Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2104522023-08-30T12:16:10Z2023-08-30T12:16:10Z50 years after the Bunker Hill mine fire caused one of the largest lead-poisoning cases in US history, Idaho’s Silver Valley is still at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544335/original/file-20230823-21-itpz3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C21%2C4885%2C3224&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Waterways and communities for miles around Idaho's Bunker Hill mine were contaminated with lead after the 1973 fire.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/scenic-river-in-cataldo-idaho-royalty-free-image/489436366">gjohnstonphoto/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Sept. 3, 1973, a fire swept through the baghouse of the Bunker Hill mine in Idaho’s Silver Valley. The building was designed to filter pollutants produced by smelting, the melting of rocks that separates metal from its ore. The gases produced in this process carried poisons, including lead.</p>
<p>At the time, the <a href="https://osupress.oregonstate.edu/book/leaded">prices of lead</a> and <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart">silver were climbing</a> toward all-time highs. Rather than wait for new filters and repairs, company officials kept the mine running. <a href="https://www.oupress.com/9780806138985/idahos-bunker-hill/">They increased production</a>, bypassed the filtration steps and, <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/11359/superfund-and-mining-megasites-lessons-from-the-coeur-dalene-river">for eleven months</a>, dumped noxious gases directly into the surrounding area.</p>
<p>Then, horses in the area <a href="https://osupress.oregonstate.edu/book/leaded">began dying</a>. </p>
<p>When data on children’s blood lead levels began to arrive in September 1974, one year after the fire, the results were shocking. The fire became one of the largest single lead-poisoning events in U.S. history. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A large industrial complex lit up against snow." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544196/original/file-20230823-15-j8fnct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544196/original/file-20230823-15-j8fnct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544196/original/file-20230823-15-j8fnct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544196/original/file-20230823-15-j8fnct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544196/original/file-20230823-15-j8fnct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544196/original/file-20230823-15-j8fnct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544196/original/file-20230823-15-j8fnct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Bunker Hill smelter in the 1970s. The mine closed in 1991, but planning is underway in 2023 to restart it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bunker_Hill_smelter_operating_in_winter_snow,_1970s.jpg">US EPA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Without filters, the mine operations deposited an estimated <a href="https://www.restorationpartnership.org/pdf/d-Chapter_2_Hazardous_Substance_Sources.pdf">35 tons of lead per month</a> in the area, four times more than before the fire. Between January and September 1974, it also released more than 2 tons of arsenic and 2.5 tons of mercury, among other metals and toxic chemicals, according to data <a href="https://www.restorationpartnership.org/pdf/d-Chapter_2_Hazardous_Substance_Sources.pdf">collected by Restoration Partnership</a>.</p>
<p>Lead still contaminates the soil across <a href="https://www.deq.idaho.gov/waste-management-and-remediation/mining-in-idaho/bunker-hill-superfund-site/">Silver Valley</a> today, and it continues to wash down tributaries and into the Coeur d’Alene River and Lake Coeur d’Alene. Many people in this fast-growing region are unaware of the risks.</p>
<h2>How lead harms human health</h2>
<p>Our bodies use metals like zinc, iron and calcium. However, we have zero need for lead. Its chemical composition makes it both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/intox-2015-0009">highly toxic and able to infiltrate almost every organ in the body</a>.</p>
<p>Lead exposure can cause <a href="https://doi.org/10.1152/ajpheart.00158.2008">high blood pressure and cardiac disease</a>. It can also cause problems with <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/lead-poisoning-and-health">brain development, kidney function and reproductive health</a>, including <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/lead/prevention/pregnant.htm">miscarriages, prematurity and low birth weight</a>. Children are especially susceptible to lead’s toxic effect on the central nervous system; they absorb it up to <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2015.303003">17 times more</a> readily than adults, and their brains are still developing.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/76RKSQgduVQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">What lead poisoning does to a child’s brain. PBS.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s reference value for levels of lead in blood has changed as knowledge about this potent neurotoxin has evolved. In 1973, a blood lead level of less than 40 <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/lead/docs/lepac/blrv-recommendation-report-508.pdf">micrograms per deciliter</a> in children was vaguely defined as “undue lead absorption.” In 1991, anything above 10 micrograms per deciliter was considered a “level of concern.”</p>
<p>Today, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/lead/data/blood-lead-reference-value.htm">3.5 micrograms per deciliter</a> is the reference value, meant to identify the 2.5% of children with the highest blood lead levels. The CDC no longer uses “level of concern” as a threshold, because there is <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/lead-poisoning-and-health">no safe blood lead level in children</a>.</p>
<h2>Children’s health after the Baghouse Fire</h2>
<p>The children of the Silver Valley were exposed to extremely high levels of poisons after the Baghouse Fire at the Bunker Hill mine.</p>
<p>Ninety-nine percent of children within a mile of the smelter who were tested after the fire – 173 out of 175 kids – had blood lead levels of 40 micrograms per deciliter or higher. Their <a href="https://osupress.oregonstate.edu/book/leaded">average blood lead level</a> was 67.4 micrograms per deciliter. A 1-year-old tested at 164 micrograms per deciliter, the <a href="https://osupress.oregonstate.edu/book/leaded">highest ever recorded in a child</a>.</p>
<p>Cognitive impairment in children, as measured by loss of IQ points, can occur at levels of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13643-022-01963-y">less than 5 micrograms per deciliter</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A donut chart with concentric rings for each distance shows almost all children had dangerously high high blood lead levels close to the smelter. Even 6 to 15 miles away (10 to 24 kilometers), one-fifth of children had exceptionally high levels." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545366/original/file-20230829-15-refhca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545366/original/file-20230829-15-refhca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545366/original/file-20230829-15-refhca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545366/original/file-20230829-15-refhca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545366/original/file-20230829-15-refhca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545366/original/file-20230829-15-refhca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545366/original/file-20230829-15-refhca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://osupress.oregonstate.edu/book/leaded">Adapted from Leaded: The Poisoning of Idaho's Silver Valley</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To put the Silver Valley numbers into context, the average blood lead level for children in Flint, Michigan, at the height of the lead-pipe water crisis in 2015 was <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180326090313.htm">1.3 micrograms per deciliter</a>, and 21 children had blood lead levels <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2016/01/22/flint-children-lead-exposure/">over 10 micrograms per deciliter</a>.</p>
<p>It is difficult to assess the extent of the damage from the Baghouse Fire in the children of the Silver Valley. Doctors in the 1970s weren’t able to test for cognitive and neurologic problems in the most vulnerable children, birth to 3 years old. Michael C. Mix describes in “<a href="https://osupress.oregonstate.edu/book/leaded">Leaded: The Poisoning of Idaho’s Silver Valley</a>” how the politically powerful company that owned the mine also suppressed and distorted health findings. Blood lead levels in children in the area remained higher than 40 micrograms per deciliter into 1980.</p>
<h2>Continuing health risk in Silver Valley</h2>
<p>The legacy of the Baghouse Fire continues to haunt Silver Valley, but that incident 50 years ago is only part of the picture. Decades of contamination from other mines in the area poses further risks.</p>
<p>At its height, the Silver Valley area had over 200 active mines. Today, it is the largest contiguous Superfund site in the nation – 1,500 square miles (3,885 square kilometers) across northern Idaho and eastern Washington. Multiple agencies, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Idaho Department of Environmental Quality, Panhandle Health District, the Coeur d’Alene Trust and the Coeur d’Alene Tribe (Schitsu’umsh), are active in <a href="https://cumulis.epa.gov/supercpad/SiteProfiles/index.cfm?fuseaction=second.Cleanup&id=1000195#bkground">monitoring and cleanup operations</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544192/original/file-20230823-25-2hf4yv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map is pocked with x's showing mine sites across the region, mostly east of the Bunker Hill fire site." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544192/original/file-20230823-25-2hf4yv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544192/original/file-20230823-25-2hf4yv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544192/original/file-20230823-25-2hf4yv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544192/original/file-20230823-25-2hf4yv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544192/original/file-20230823-25-2hf4yv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544192/original/file-20230823-25-2hf4yv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544192/original/file-20230823-25-2hf4yv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hundreds of old mine sites dot the region east of Lake Coeur d'Alene.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://panhandlehealthdistrict.org/">Panhandle Health District</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Early efforts to clean up contamination from the fire concentrated on residential areas in “The Box,” a 21-square-mile area (54 square kilometers) around the old smelter site and the towns of Kellogg, Smelterville and Pinehurst. Workers dug up contaminated earth and removed it, and officials monitored the environment and human health.</p>
<p>The cleanup today is much more extensive and ongoing, with efforts focused on cleaning up the old mine and mill sites and recreational areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544199/original/file-20230823-29-57d7ij.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows the Superfund site including Cuoer d'Alene Lake" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544199/original/file-20230823-29-57d7ij.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544199/original/file-20230823-29-57d7ij.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544199/original/file-20230823-29-57d7ij.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544199/original/file-20230823-29-57d7ij.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544199/original/file-20230823-29-57d7ij.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544199/original/file-20230823-29-57d7ij.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544199/original/file-20230823-29-57d7ij.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Bunker Hill Mining and Metallurgical Complex Superfund Site covers about 1,500 square miles across northern Idaho and eastern Washington. ‘The Box’ is shaded in gray.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cumulis.epa.gov/supercpad/SiteProfiles/index.cfm?fuseaction=second.cleanup&id=1000195">EPA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544393/original/file-20230823-21-bhorjz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows a boundary around the lake and along the river." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544393/original/file-20230823-21-bhorjz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544393/original/file-20230823-21-bhorjz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544393/original/file-20230823-21-bhorjz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544393/original/file-20230823-21-bhorjz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544393/original/file-20230823-21-bhorjz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544393/original/file-20230823-21-bhorjz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544393/original/file-20230823-21-bhorjz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The EPA’s active area within the Superfund site includes long stretches of the Coeur d'Alene River and Lake Coeur d'Alene. The EPA notes that there are also sites with contamination further downstream in the Spokane River, Washington.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lead does not biodegrade. It’s in the soil, along waterways and even visible in sediment to the naked eye. It is estimated that the Coeur d’Alene River delivers about <a href="https://www.spokanepublicradio.org/regional-news/2022-03-24/coeur-dalene-basin-cleanup-to-expand-to-lower-basin">200 tons of lead</a> to Lake Coeur d’Alene every year.</p>
<h2>Swan deaths show the continuing risk</h2>
<p>Blood lead levels in the area have come down dramatically since 1973, but they are still concerning. In 2022, the average blood lead level for children in “The Box” was estimated at <a href="https://panhandlehealthdistrict.org/">2.3 micrograms per deciliter</a>, above <a href="https://www.epa.gov/americaschildrenenvironment/biomonitoring-lead">the U.S. average</a>. The average for the surrounding area <a href="https://panhandlehealthdistrict.org/">was higher, 3.3 micrograms per deciliter</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A dead swan along a riverway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544200/original/file-20230823-21-wvd9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544200/original/file-20230823-21-wvd9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544200/original/file-20230823-21-wvd9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544200/original/file-20230823-21-wvd9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544200/original/file-20230823-21-wvd9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544200/original/file-20230823-21-wvd9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544200/original/file-20230823-21-wvd9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tundra swans, which dig in the soil along streams for food, have been dying in northern Idaho.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://idfg.idaho.gov/press/tundra-swan-deaths-continue-lower-coeur-dalene-river-basin">CC Kajsa Van de Riet/IDEQ</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lead also affects area wildlife. <a href="https://semspub.epa.gov/work/10/100447187.pdf">Over 95% of wetlands</a> in the Lower Basin contain sediment that is toxic to wildlife. Tundra swans, whose eating habits make them very susceptible to heavy metal poisoning, are a recent casualty. For these migratory birds, the area is a stopover. Since 2008, average swan deaths are estimated at 50 to 60 birds per year. <a href="https://idfg.idaho.gov/press/tundra-swan-deaths-continue-lower-coeur-dalene-river-basin">There were over 300 bird deaths</a> documented in 2022; a <a href="https://semspub.epa.gov/work/10/100447187.pdf">study is underway</a> into the cause.</p>
<p>To complicate matters, many local residents have forgotten or never learned about the Baghouse Fire and the environmental issues associated with the site. Others choose to simply disbelieve the harmfulness of lead.</p>
<h2>As Idaho’s population booms, people aren’t aware</h2>
<p>Today, Idaho is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S., with an influx of new residents oblivious to the local history and unaware of the threat that lurks below their feet and in the beaches of the beautiful lakes and rivers in the area. With population growth comes development, digging and disturbing contaminated soil.</p>
<p>Even normal weather conditions – from dry windy days that stir up lead dust particles to heavy rainfalls that mobilize contaminated sediments – can have detrimental effects on human health and on the environment.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544197/original/file-20230823-29-pgg37e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photo of a large sign with warnings about soils and sediments containing harmful levels of lead." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544197/original/file-20230823-29-pgg37e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544197/original/file-20230823-29-pgg37e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544197/original/file-20230823-29-pgg37e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544197/original/file-20230823-29-pgg37e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544197/original/file-20230823-29-pgg37e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544197/original/file-20230823-29-pgg37e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544197/original/file-20230823-29-pgg37e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A warning reminds visitors on the Trail of the Coeur d'Alenes of the area’s lead risks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Trail_of_the_Coeur_d%27_Alenes_(10490158534).jpg">Robert Ashworth via Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Health risks remain, particularly along the banks and shores of the South Fork and the main Coeur d’Alene River, which are now popular recreation areas. Advisories about the lead risk in fish are still common, <a href="https://doh.wa.gov/data-and-statistical-reports/washington-tracking-network-wtn/fish-advisories/fish-consumption-advisories-washington-state">even downstream in Spokane</a>, Washington.</p>
<p>Children and pregnant women are the most vulnerable; <a href="https://peht.ucsf.edu/search.php?pane=reference&topic=lead">lead crosses the placenta, and it is present in breast milk</a>. Major outreach efforts are underway to educate those living, working or visiting the area.</p>
<p>Idaho’s <a href="https://panhandlehealthdistrict.org/">Panhandle Health District</a> offers free lead screenings year-round to anyone living or spending time in the area. In-home follow-ups are offered to those found to have elevated lead levels. Meanwhile, the cleanup, which started in 1986, will continue for decades to come. </p>
<p><em>Mary Rehnborg, program manager for the Institutional Controls Program in the Panhandle Health District, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210452/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Schiavenato does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A fire and decades of silver and lead mining created the largest contiguous Superfund site in the nation in what today is one of the fastest-growing states. It includes popular Lake Coeur d’Alene.Martin Schiavenato, Assistant Professor of Nursing, Gonzaga UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2058962023-05-26T12:27:40Z2023-05-26T12:27:40ZThe Supreme Court just shriveled federal protection for wetlands, leaving many of these valuable ecosystems at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528434/original/file-20230525-17-782ull.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3409%2C2571&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many ecologically important wetlands, like these in Kulm, N.D., lack surface connections to navigable waterways.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/kgatnj">USFWS Mountain-Prairie/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled in <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/598/21-454/">Sackett v. EPA</a> that federal protection of wetlands encompasses only those wetlands that directly adjoin rivers, lakes and other bodies of water. This is an extremely narrow interpretation of the Clean Water Act that could expose many wetlands across the U.S. to filling and development.</p>
<p>Under this keystone environmental law, federal agencies take the lead in regulating water pollution, while state and local governments regulate land use. Wetlands are areas where <a href="https://www.epa.gov/wetlands/what-wetland">land is wet for all or part of the year</a>, so they straddle this division of authority.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.epa.gov/wetlands/classification-and-types-wetlands#undefined">Swamps, bogs, marshes and other wetlands</a> provide valuable ecological services, such as filtering pollutants and soaking up floodwaters. Landowners must obtain permits to discharge <a href="https://www.fedcenter.gov/assistance/facilitytour/construction/dredging/">dredged or fill material</a>, such as dirt, sand or rock, in a protected wetland. </p>
<p>This can be time-consuming and expensive, which is why the Supreme Court’s ruling on May 25, 2023, will be of keen interest to developers, farmers and ranchers, along with conservationists and the agencies that administer the Clean Water Act – namely, the Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. </p>
<p>For the last 45 years – and under eight different presidential administrations – the EPA and the Corps have required discharge permits in wetlands “adjacent” to water bodies, even if a dune, levee or other barrier separated the two. The Sackett decision upends that approach, <a href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20160427_RL33263_e0b1d527d85d13721eb7f29d3e1446c517900c45.pdf">leaving tens of millions of acres of wetlands at risk</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bFGMoFIjKRM?wmode=transparent&start=1" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. has lost more than half of its original wetlands, mainly due to development and pollution.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Sackett case</h2>
<p>Idaho residents Chantell and Mike Sackett own a parcel of land located 300 feet from Priest Lake, <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/idaho-couple-returns-to-supreme-court-to-wage-new-wotus-war/">one of the state’s largest lakes</a>. The parcel once was part of a large wetland complex. Today, even after <a href="https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/nov/06/private-land-public-battle/">the Sacketts cleared the lot</a>, it still has some wetland characteristics, such as saturation and ponding in areas where soil was removed. Indeed, it is still hydrologically connected to the lake and neighboring wetlands by water that flows at a shallow depth underground. </p>
<p>In preparation to build a house, the Sacketts had fill material placed on the site without obtaining a Clean Water Act permit. The EPA issued an order in 2007 stating that the land contained wetlands subject to the law and requiring the Sacketts to restore the site. The Sacketts sued, <a href="https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/nov/06/private-land-public-battle/">arguing that their property was not a wetland</a>. </p>
<p>In 2012, the Supreme Court held that the Sacketts had the right to challenge EPA’s order and <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/11pdf/10-1062.pdf">sent the case back to the lower courts</a>. After <a href="https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2021/08/16/19-35469.pdf">losing below on the merits</a>, they returned to the Supreme Court with a suit asserting that their property was not federally protected. This claim in turn raised a broader question: What is the scope of federal regulatory authority under the Clean Water Act?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528437/original/file-20230525-22692-3hhbom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Homes line the edges of a river." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528437/original/file-20230525-22692-3hhbom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528437/original/file-20230525-22692-3hhbom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528437/original/file-20230525-22692-3hhbom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528437/original/file-20230525-22692-3hhbom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528437/original/file-20230525-22692-3hhbom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528437/original/file-20230525-22692-3hhbom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528437/original/file-20230525-22692-3hhbom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Housing encroaches on Caloosahatchee River wetlands in Fort Myers, Fla.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fort-myers-florida-palm-acres-housing-development-news-photo/1428541733">Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What are ‘waters of the United States’?</h2>
<p>The Clean Water Act regulates <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2020-title33/pdf/USCODE-2020-title33-chap26-subchapIII-sec1311.pdf">discharges of pollutants</a> into “<a href="https://www.epa.gov/wotus/about-waters-united-states">waters of the United States</a>.” Lawful discharges may occur if a pollution source obtains a permit under either <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2011-title33/pdf/USCODE-2011-title33-chap26-subchapIV-sec1344.pdf">Section 404 of the act</a> for dredged or fill material, or <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-1994-title33/pdf/USCODE-1994-title33-chap25-subchapIV-sec1342.pdf">Section 402</a> for other pollutants. </p>
<p>The Supreme Court has previously recognized that the “waters of the United States” include not only navigable rivers and lakes, but also wetlands and waterways that are connected to navigable bodies of water. But many wetlands are not wet year-round, or are not connected at the surface to larger water systems. Still, they can have <a href="https://theconversation.com/small-streams-and-wetlands-are-key-parts-of-river-networks-heres-why-they-need-protection-110342">important ecological connections</a> to larger water bodies.</p>
<p>In 2006, when the court last took up this issue, no majority was able to agree on how to define “waters of the United States.” Writing for a plurality of four justices in U.S. v. Rapanos, Justice Antonin Scalia <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2005/04-1034">defined the term narrowly</a> to include only relatively permanent, standing or continuously flowing bodies of water such as streams, oceans, rivers and lakes. Waters of the U.S., he contended, should not include “ordinarily dry channels through which water occasionally or intermittently flows.” </p>
<p>Acknowledging that wetlands present a tricky line-drawing problem, Scalia proposed that the Clean Water Act should reach “only those wetlands with a continuous surface connection to bodies that are waters of the United States in their own right.” </p>
<p>In a concurring opinion, Justice Anthony Kennedy took a very different approach. “Waters of the U.S.,” he wrote, should be interpreted in light of the Clean Water Act’s objective of “restoring and maintaining the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the Nation’s waters.” </p>
<p>Accordingly, Kennedy argued, the Clean Water Act should cover wetlands that have a “significant nexus” with navigable waters – “if the wetlands, either alone or in combination with similarly situated lands in the region, significantly affect the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of other covered waters more readily understood as ‘navigable.’” </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CsmaAv2LpR6/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Neither Scalia’s nor Kennedy’s opinion attracted a majority, so lower courts were left to sort out which approach to follow. Most applied Kennedy’s significant nexus standard, while a few held that the Clean Water Act applies if <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46927">either Kennedy’s standard or Scalia’s is satisfied</a>.</p>
<p>Regulators have also struggled with this question. The Obama administration incorporated Kennedy’s “significant nexus” approach into a <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2015-06-29/pdf/2015-13435.pdf">2015 rule</a> that followed an extensive rulemaking process and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/epas-clean-water-rule-whats-at-stake-and-what-comes-next-42466">comprehensive peer-reviewed scientific assessment</a>. The Trump administration then replaced the 2015 rule with <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2020-04-21/pdf/2020-02500.pdf">a rule of its own</a> that <a href="https://theconversation.com/repealing-the-clean-water-rule-will-swamp-the-trump-administration-in-wetland-litigation-123565">largely adopted the Scalia approach</a>. </p>
<p>The Biden administration <a href="https://www.epa.gov/wotus">responded with its own rule</a> defining waters of the United States in terms of the presence of either a significant nexus or continuous surface connection. However, this rule was <a href="https://www.epa.gov/wotus/definition-waters-united-states-rule-status-and-litigation-update">promptly embroiled in litigation</a> and will require reconsideration in light of Sackett v. EPA.</p>
<h2>The Sackett decision and its ramifications</h2>
<p>The Sackett decision adopts Scalia’s approach from the 2006 Rapanos case. Writing for a five-justice majority, Justice Samuel Alito declared that “waters of the United States” includes only relatively permanent, standing or continuously flowing bodies of water, such as streams, oceans, rivers, lakes – and wetlands that have a continuous surface connection with and are indistinguishably part of such water bodies. </p>
<p>None of the nine justices adopted Kennedy’s 2006 “significant nexus” standard. However, Justice Brett Kavanaugh and the three liberal justices disagreed with the majority’s “continuous surface connection” test. That test, Kavanaugh <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/598/21-454/">wrote in a concurrence</a>, is inconsistent with the text of the Clean Water Act, which extends coverage to “adjacent” wetlands – including those that are near or close to larger water bodies. </p>
<p>“Natural barriers such as berms and dunes do not block all water flow and are in fact evidence of a regular connection between a water and a wetland,” Kavanaugh explained. “By narrowing the Act’s coverage of wetlands to only adjoining wetlands, the Court’s new test will leave some long-regulated adjacent wetlands no longer covered by the Clean Water Act, with significant repercussions for water quality and flood control throughout the United States.” </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1661746924482080768"}"></div></p>
<p>The majority’s ruling leaves little room for the EPA or the Army Corps of Engineers to issue new regulations that could protect wetlands more broadly. </p>
<p>The court’s requirement of a continuous surface connection means that federal protection may no longer apply to many areas that critically affect the water quality of U.S. rivers, lakes and oceans – including seasonal streams and wetlands that are near or intermittently connected to larger water bodies. It might also mean that construction of a road, levee or other barrier separating a wetland from other nearby waters could remove an area from federal protection. </p>
<p>Congress could amend the Clean Water Act to expressly provide that “waters of the United States” includes wetlands that the court has now stripped of federal protection. However, <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R43943.pdf">past efforts to legislate a definition have fizzled</a>, and today’s closely divided Congress is unlikely to fare any better.</p>
<p>Whether states will fill the breach is questionable. Many states have not adopted regulatory protections for waters that are <a href="https://www.eli.org/sites/default/files/files-pdf/52.10679.pdf">outside the scope of “waters of the United States</a>.” In many instances, new legislation – and perhaps entirely new regulatory programs – will be needed. </p>
<p>Finally, a concurring opinion by Justice Clarence Thomas hints at potential future targets for the court’s conservative supermajority. Joined by Justice Neil Gorsuch, Thomas suggested that the Clean Water Act, as well as other federal environmental statutes, lies beyond Congress’ authority to regulate activities that affect interstate commerce, and could be vulnerable to constitutional challenges. In my view, Sackett v. EPA might be just one step toward the teardown of federal environmental law. </p>
<p><em>This is an update of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/which-wetlands-should-receive-federal-protection-the-supreme-court-revisits-a-question-it-has-struggled-in-the-past-to-answer-185282">article</a> originally published on Sept. 26, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205896/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Albert C. Lin was a trial attorney for the Environment and Natural Resources Division of the U.S. Department of Justice from 1998 to 2003. He served as a law clerk to the Honorable Merrick Garland of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit and to the Honorable James Browning of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit.</span></em></p>In Sackett v. EPA, a suit filed by two homeowners who filled in wetlands on their property, the Supreme Court has drastically narrowed the definition of which wetlands qualify for federal protection.Albert C. Lin, Professor of Law, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2034722023-04-19T12:44:18Z2023-04-19T12:44:18ZFire danger in the high mountains is intensifying: That’s bad news for humans, treacherous for the environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521666/original/file-20230418-22-zv27xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1731%2C1065&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fires are increasing in high mountain areas that rarely burned in the past.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Deerfire_high_res.jpg">John McColgan, Bureau of Land Management, Alaska Fire Service</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As wildfire risk rises in the West, wildland firefighters and officials are keeping a closer eye on the high mountains – regions once considered too wet to burn.</p>
<p>The growing fire risk in these areas became startling clear in 2020, when Colorado’s <a href="https://www.cpr.org/2021/01/25/colorados-east-troublesome-wildfire-may-signal-a-new-era-of-big-fire-blow-ups/">East Troublesome Fire</a> burned up and over the Continental Divide to become the state’s second-largest fire on record. The following year, California’s <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-14/californias-wildfires-burning-at-greater-elevations">Dixie Fire</a> became the first on record to burn across the Sierra Nevada’s crest and start down the other side.</p>
<p>We study wildfire behavior as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZaW8ZbsAAAAJ&hl=en">climate scientists</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tGGNDyUAAAAJ&hl=en">engineers</a>. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37311-4">new study</a>, we show that fire risk has intensified in every region across the West over the past four decades, but the sharpest upward trends are in the high elevations. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fire burns in the mountains above a building and ranch fence." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C17%2C5670%2C3236&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2020, Colorado’s East Troublesome fire jumped the Continental Divide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Exchange-ColoradoWildfires-Blow-ups/8e10c8213c3847f3a7ef14e7ff81eddf/photo">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>High mountain fires can create a cascade of risks for local ecosystems and for millions of people living farther down the mountains.</p>
<p>Since cooler, wetter high mountain landscapes rarely burn, vegetation and dead wood can build up, so <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009717118">highland fires tend to be intense and uncontrollable</a>. They can affect everything from water quality and the timing of meltwater that communities and farmers rely on, to erosion that can bring debris and mud flows. Ultimately, they can change the hydrology, ecology and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/geomorphology">geomorphology</a> of the highlands, with complex feedback loops that can transform mountain landscapes and endanger human safety.</p>
<h2>Four decades of rising fire risk</h2>
<p>Historically, higher moisture levels and cooler temperatures created a flammability barrier in the highlands. This enabled fire managers to leave fires that move away from human settlements and up mountains to run their course without interference. Fire would hit the flammability barrier and burn out.</p>
<p>However, our findings show that’s no longer reliable as the climate warms.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37311-4">analyzed fire danger trends</a> in different elevation bands of the Western U.S. mountains from 1979 to 2020. Fire danger describes conditions that reflect the <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/inyo/home/?cid=stelprdb5173311">potential for a fire to ignite and spread</a>.</p>
<p>Over that 42-year period, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz4571">rising temperatures and drying trends</a> increased the number of critical fire danger days in every region in the U.S. West. But in the highlands, certain environmental processes, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563">earlier snowmelt</a> that allowed the earth to heat up and become drier, intensified the fire danger faster than anywhere else. It was particularly stark in high-elevation forests from about 8,200 to 9,800 feet (2,500-3,000 meters) in elevation, just above the elevation of Aspen, Colorado.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing changing wildfire risks in the high mountains" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mohammad Reza Alizadeh</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found that the high-elevation band had gained on average 63 critical fire danger days a year by 2020 compared with 1979. That included 22 days outside the traditional warm season of May to September. In previous research, we found that high-elevation fires had been advancing upslope in the West at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009717118">about 25 feet (7.6 meters) per year</a>.</p>
<h2>Cascading risks for humans downstream</h2>
<p>Mountains are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005653">water towers</a> of the world, providing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073551">70% of the runoff that cities across the West</a> rely on. They support millions of people who live downstream.</p>
<p>High-elevation fires can have a significant impact on snow accumulation and meltwater, even long after they have burned out. </p>
<p>For example, fires remove vegetation cover and tree canopies, which can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09935-y">shorten the amount of time</a> the snowpack stays frozen before melting. Soot from fires also darkens the snow surface, increasing its ability to absorb the Sun’s energy, which facilitates melting. Similarly, darkened land surface increases the absorption of solar radiation and heightens soil temperature after fires.</p>
<p>The result of these changes can be spring flooding, and less water later in the summer when communities downstream are counting on it.</p>
<p>Fire-driven tree loss also removes anchor points for the snowpack, increasing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.01.050">the frequency and severity of avalanches</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A burned area on a mountain ridge with a large reservoir far below." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wildfire burn scars can have many effects on the water quality and quantity reaching communities below.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/iron-mountain-and-whiskeytown-lake-site-of-the-destructive-news-photo/1334892056">George Rose/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Frequent fires in high-elevation areas can also have a significant impact on the sediment dynamics of mountain streams. The loss of tree canopy means rainfall hits the ground at a higher velocity, increasing the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814627116">potential for erosion</a>. This can trigger mudslides and increase the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09864-w">amount of sediment</a> sent downstream, which in turn can affect water quality and aquatic habitats.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814627116">Erosion linked to runoff after fire damage</a> can also deepen streams to the point that excess water from storms can’t spread in high-elevation meadows and recharge the groundwater; instead, they route the water quickly downstream and cause flooding.</p>
<h2>Hazards for climate-stressed species and ecosystems</h2>
<p>The highlands generally have long fire return intervals, burning once every several decades if not centuries. Since they don’t burn often, their ecosystems aren’t as fire-adapted as lower-elevation forests, so they may not recover as efficiently or survive repeated fires. </p>
<p>Studies show that more frequent fires could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12889">change the type of trees that grow</a> in the highlands or even convert them to shrubs or grasses. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A team of pack mules carries supplies up a high mountain in Glacier National Park. Some of the trees have burned, even at this high elevation." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">High-elevation tree species like whitebark pines face an increasing risk of blister rust infections and mountain pine beetle infestations that can kill trees, creating more fuel for fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/park-service-animal-packers-jill-michalak-and-jacob-ellis-news-photo/1175612536">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wet mountain areas, with their cooler temperatures and higher precipitation, are often peppered with hot spots of biodiversity and provide refuges to various species from the warming climate. If these areas lose their tree canopies, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1103097108">species with small ranges</a> that depend on cold-water mountain streams can face existential risks as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/09-0822.1">more energy from the Sun</a> heats up stream water in the absence of tree shading. </p>
<p>While the risk is rising fastest in the high mountains, most of the West is now at increasing risk of fires. With continuing greenhouse gas emissions fueling global warming, this trend of worsening fire danger is expected to intensify further, straining firefighting resources as crews battle more blazes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203472/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mojtaba Sadegh receives funding from the Joint Fire Science Program and the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohammad Reza Alizadeh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fires here can affect meltwater timing and water quality, worsen erosion that triggers mudslides, and much more, as two scientists explain.Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, Postdoctoral Researcher in Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Mojtaba Sadegh, Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1626522021-08-09T12:28:36Z2021-08-09T12:28:36ZIn Moscow, Idaho, conservative ‘Christian Reconstructionists’ are thriving amid evangelical turmoil<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414815/original/file-20210805-19-m0qhz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1890&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of Christ Church in Moscow, Idaho, protest an order to either socially distance or wear a face mask in public.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/oct/07/trump-tweets-video-of-idaho-church-gathering-false/">Geoff Crimmins/The Moscow-Pullman Daily News</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Evangelical groups in the U.S. have for years <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/07/08/rapid-decline-white-evangelical-america/">faced dwindling numbers</a>. And a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/29/southern-baptist-convention-america-culture-wars">messy cultural fight</a> over the direction of the movement might serve to <a href="https://theconversation.com/white-gen-x-and-millennial-evangelicals-are-losing-faith-in-the-conservative-culture-wars-162407">drive further defections</a>.</p>
<p>But while some of the largest Protestant denominations in America, such as Southern Baptists, <a href="https://religionnews.com/2021/05/21/southern-baptist-decline-continues-denomination-has-lost-more-than-2-million-members-since-2006/">continue to hemorrhage members</a>, one small group of conservative evangelicals appears to be bucking the trend – despite numbering only around 1,300 or so.</p>
<p>For the past 30 years, believers from across the United States and beyond have been gathering in Moscow, a city in northern Idaho with a population of around 25,000. Here, as part of the Christ Church congregation, they have set their face against the cultures of American modernity. Guided by a controversial social theory known as “<a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2005/12/nation-under-god/">Christian Reconstruction</a>,” which holds that biblical law should apply in today’s setting, they look to the Bible to understand how they believe American institutions should be reformed. Followers believe that abortion rights and same-sex marriage, among other evidences of what they would see as moral decline, will eventually be repealed. Their goal is simple – the <a href="https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/nov/17/leaders-of-moscows-christ-church-say-theyre-pushin/">conversion of the people of Moscow</a> to their way of thinking as the first step toward the conversion of the world.</p>
<p>This hope might appear to be unrealistic. But as a scholar who has charted the rise of the movement in my book “<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/survival-and-resistance-in-evangelical-america-9780199370221?cc=us&lang=en&">Survival and Resistance in Evangelical America</a>,” I know that these believers have already made steps toward that goal.</p>
<h2>Growing influence</h2>
<p>In Moscow, the community has established churches, a classical Christian school, a liberal arts college, a music conservatory, a publishing house, and the makings of a media empire. With books published by major trade and academic presses, and a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Man-Rampant/dp/B07Z8G12XP">talk show on Amazon Prime</a>, the community is setting the agenda for a theologically vigorous and politically reactionary evangelical revival.</p>
<p>These believers are led by conservative <a href="https://dougwils.com/">pastor Douglas Wilson</a>, whose views on gender, marriage and many other topics are <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/scandal-in-moscow/">controversial</a>, even among the most conservative Christians. For over 30 years, Wilson has been campaigning against the influence of everything from atheism to feminism. </p>
<p>In so doing, he has attracted some significant critical attention – not least from the late journalist and prominent atheist Christopher Hitchens, with whom he debated whether Christianity was good for the world in a series of exchanges that was later turned <a href="https://canonpress.com/products/is-christianity-good-for-the-world/">into a book</a>. </p>
<p>The community that Wilson leads in Moscow is still small. It is hard to obtain figures for the growth of Christ Church in terms of numbers, but my research and conversations with members of the congregation suggest it is expanding. What is clear is that in little more than three decades, Christ Church has gone from being a little-known congregation to one generating media attention and getting attention from senior political figures.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pastor Douglas Wilson leads others at a protest in Moscow, Idaho." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414816/original/file-20210805-21-gr8sdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414816/original/file-20210805-21-gr8sdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414816/original/file-20210805-21-gr8sdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414816/original/file-20210805-21-gr8sdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414816/original/file-20210805-21-gr8sdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414816/original/file-20210805-21-gr8sdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414816/original/file-20210805-21-gr8sdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pastor Douglas Wilson and followers at a protest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Geoff Crimmins/The Moscow-Pullman Daily News</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The community has established a K-12 school, a member of an <a href="https://classicalchristian.org/?v=a44707111a05">association</a> of hundreds of classical Christian schools heavily influenced by the educational beliefs of Wilson. In a testament to the political reach of the group, in 2019 Republican Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska was one of the speakers at the association’s annual convention.</p>
<p>As I note in my book, the community’s <a href="https://nsa.edu/presidents-page/">liberal arts college</a> sends students <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/survival-and-resistance-in-evangelical-america-9780199370221?cc=us&lang=en&">into doctoral programs in various disciplines at Ivy League and leading European universities</a> – it isn’t an insular educational world. Its small and closely connected group of authors has worked with publishers such as Random House and Oxford University Press.</p>
<p>And then there is the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Man-Rampant/dp/B07Z8G12XP">talk show on Amazon Prime</a>.</p>
<p>This talk show, “Man Rampant,” gives an indication of why this community is growing in influence despite the evangelical decline. Wilson, as its host, uses the platform to set out the ideas that undergird his vision of Christian renewal – developing an agenda drawn explicitly from the Bible about the revival of traditional masculinity.</p>
<p>As its title suggests, “Man Rampant” promotes an extremely muscular Christianity. Forget Jesus as well-meaning, meek and mild; the first episode condemned the “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDtIRMGrrNA">sin of empathy</a>.” Empathy, says Wilson, “is not a good thing.”</p>
<p>The “Man Rampant” agenda is reinforced on Wilson’s website, which draws upon the creative people living in the Moscow community to turn his arguments into <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBEnaNOFMR8">striking visual metaphors</a>, and where, while dismissing racism, he argues that “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycBCHPfgzXA">it really is OK to be white</a>.”</p>
<h2>Going local to convert America</h2>
<p>In America’s crowded religious marketplace, Wilson’s message is clearly distinct. </p>
<p>One of Wilson’s most important influences is the late <a href="https://chalcedon.edu/founder">R.J. Rushdoony</a>, an Armenian-American Presbyterian theologian who was driven by protecting Protestants in the U.S. from suffering the kind of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-16352745">genocide</a> from which his parents escaped. Frustrated by the other-worldliness of many American Christian denominations, whose adherents he feared preached more about heaven than earth, and their complacency in what he perceived to be a hostile liberal culture, Rushdoony set about developing <a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9781469622743/christian-reconstruction/">biblical principles for how society should be organized</a>.</p>
<p>The Ten Commandments were no longer to be considered as an artifact in the history of morality, Rushdoony argued. Instead, they should be understood as setting out the core principles for the running of the modern state. “Thou shalt not steal” ruled out the possibility of inflation, which Rushdoony argued devalued monetary assets and was therefore was a form of theft. And “Thou shalt have no other gods besides me” ruled out any possibility of religious pluralism.</p>
<p>Rushdoony promoted these ideals in titles such as 1973’s “<a href="https://chalcedon.edu/store/42255-the-institutes-of-biblical-law-set">Institutes of Biblical Law</a>” – a 1,000-page exposition of the Ten Commandments that argued for both the abolition of the prison system and a massive extension of capital punishment. </p>
<p>Christians would be secure in American society only when it was shaped by their religious values, he argued. But the Christian America that he anticipated would not be secured through revolution or any form of top-down political change – only by the transformation of individual lives, families, towns and states. </p>
<p>This strategy of promoting beliefs at the local level explains why Christian Reconstructionists, like those led by Wilson, prefer to focus energies in small towns. The Reconstructionists in Moscow believe that they can achieve much more significant cultural impact if they can secure significant demographic change, either by the conversion of existing inhabitants or by encouraging others to move to the area.</p>
<h2>Eschewing the existential crisis</h2>
<p>The stated goal of Wilson’s congregation is to <a href="https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/nov/17/leaders-of-moscows-christ-church-say-theyre-pushin/">make Moscow a Christian town</a>; at present only <a href="https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/nov/17/leaders-of-moscows-christ-church-say-theyre-pushin/">around a third of Moscow residents identify as “religious</a>,” according to a 2019 report.</p>
<p>But it is Wilson’s attitude about public health measures during the pandemic that has most recently brought him and his church back to the attention of political leaders. Throughout the pandemic, he has argued that mask requirements reveal the hypocrisy of government. In September 2020, Wilson led his congregation in the illegal hymn-sing in front of City Hall that led to the arrests of several church members – footage of which was <a href="https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/oct/07/trump-tweets-video-of-idaho-church-gathering-false/">retweeted by President Trump</a>, who suggested that the Moscow congregation’s arrests were emblematic of what would happen to evangelicals if Democrats took control. “DEMS WANT TO SHUT YOUR CHURCHES DOWN, PERMANENTLY,” the former president tweeted in all caps. </p>
<p>And yet, whatever the former president’s fears, Wilson’s congregation is growing. While large denominations, like the Southern Baptists, divide in the debate about critical race theory, Wilson’s church shows how some congregations could respond to evangelicalism’s existential crisis – and possibly thrive.</p>
<p>[<em>3 media outlets, 1 religion newsletter.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/this-week-in-religion-76/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=religion-3-in-1">Get stories from The Conversation, AP and RNS.</a>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162652/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crawford Gribben received funding from the Irish Research Council for a research project on "Radical religion in the trans-Atlantic world."</span></em></p>A controversial pastor is aiming to convert a town of 25,000 people as part of grand expansion plans. A scholar says the congregation’s influence is growing.Crawford Gribben, Professor of history, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1645972021-07-15T19:10:09Z2021-07-15T19:10:09ZWhat’s in wildfire smoke? A toxicologist explains the health risks and which masks can help<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411549/original/file-20210715-17-gyrj5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C99%2C4413%2C2959&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wildfires filled Seattle with smoke in September 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-take-photos-against-the-backdrop-of-the-space-needle-news-photo/1228482175?adppopup=true">Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Smoke is turning the sky hazy <a href="https://twitter.com/TWCChrisBruin/status/1415723640528719881">across</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/JamesGilbertWX/status/1415711862449184773">a large swath of the country</a> as <a href="https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/nfn">dozens of large fires burn</a>, and a lot of people are wondering what’s in the air they’re breathing. </p>
<p>As an <a href="https://www.boisestate.edu/phps/luke-montrose/">environmental toxicologist</a>, I study the effects of wildfire smoke and how they <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21708-0">differ</a> from other sources of air pollution. We know that breathing wildfire smoke can be harmful. Less clear is what the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-year-the-west-was-burning-how-the-2020-wildfire-season-got-so-extreme-148804">worsening wildfire landscape</a> will mean for public health in the future, but research is raising red flags.</p>
<p>In parts of the West, wildfire smoke now makes up <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1029/2018GH000144">nearly half the air pollution</a> measured annually. A new <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/new-analysis-shows-spikes-metal-contaminants-including-lead-2018-camp-fire-wildfire-smoke">study</a> by the California Air Resources Board found another threat: high levels of lead and other metals turned up in smoke from the 2018 Camp Fire, which destroyed the town of Paradise. The findings suggest smoke from fires that reach communities could be even more dangerous than originally thought because of the building materials that burn.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map of showing smoke across the entire country" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411541/original/file-20210715-13-jwt6fi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411541/original/file-20210715-13-jwt6fi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411541/original/file-20210715-13-jwt6fi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411541/original/file-20210715-13-jwt6fi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411541/original/file-20210715-13-jwt6fi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411541/original/file-20210715-13-jwt6fi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411541/original/file-20210715-13-jwt6fi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NOAA’s smoke forecast based on where fires were burning on July 15, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here’s a closer look at what makes up wildfire smoke and what you can do to protect yourself and your family.</p>
<h2>What’s in wildfire smoke?</h2>
<p><a href="http://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-018-0064-7">What exactly is in a wildfire’s smoke</a> depends on a few key things: what’s burning – grass, brush or trees; the temperature – is it flaming or just smoldering; and the distance between the person breathing the smoke and the fire producing it.</p>
<p>The distance affects the ability of smoke to “age,” meaning to be acted upon by the Sun and other chemicals in the air as it travels. <a href="http://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b01034">Aging can make it more toxic</a>. Importantly, large particles like what most people think of as ash do not typically travel that far from the fire, but small particles, or aerosols, can travel <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.06.006">across continents</a>.</p>
<p>Smoke from wildfires contains <a href="https://www3.epa.gov/airnow/wildfire-smoke/wildfire-smoke-guide-revised-2019.pdf">thousands of individual compounds</a>, including carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, carbon dioxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides. The most prevalent pollutant by mass is particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter, roughly 50 times smaller than a grain of sand. Its prevalence is one reason health authorities issue air quality warnings using PM 2.5 as the metric.</p>
<p>The new study on smoke from the 2018 Camp Fire found <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/new-analysis-shows-spikes-metal-contaminants-including-lead-2018-camp-fire-wildfire-smoke">dangerous levels of lead</a> in smoke blowing downwind as the fire burned through Paradise, California. The metals, which have been linked to health harms including high blood pressure and developmental effects in children with long-term exposure, traveled more than 150 miles on the wind, with concentrations 50 times above average in some areas.</p>
<h2>What does that smoke do to human bodies?</h2>
<p>There is another reason <a href="https://www.calhospital.org/sites/main/files/file-attachments/wildfire_smoke_considerations_for_californias_public_health_officials_august_2019.pdf">PM2.5 is used to make health recommendations</a>: It defines the cutoff for particles that can travel deep into the lungs and cause the most damage.</p>
<p>The human body is equipped with natural defense mechanisms against particles bigger than PM2.5. As I tell my students, if you have ever <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/mucociliary-clearance">coughed up phlegm</a> or blown your nose after being around a campfire and discovered black or brown mucus in the tissue, you have witnessed these mechanisms firsthand.</p>
<p>The really small particles bypass these defenses and disturb the air sacs where oxygen crosses over into the blood. Fortunately, we have specialized immune cells present called macrophages. It’s their job to seek out foreign material and remove or destroy it. However, <a href="http://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.305744">studies have shown</a> that repeated exposure to elevated levels of wood smoke can suppress macrophages, leading to increases in lung inflammation.</p>
<h2>What does that mean for COVID-19 symptoms?</h2>
<p>Dose, frequency and duration are important when it comes to smoke exposure. Short-term exposure can irritate the eyes and throat. Long-term exposure to wildfire smoke over days or weeks, or breathing in heavy smoke, can raise the risk of <a href="https://www.calhospital.org/sites/main/files/file-attachments/wildfire_smoke_considerations_for_californias_public_health_officials_august_2019.pdf">lung damage</a> and may also contribute to <a href="https://health.ny.gov/environmental/outdoors/air/smoke_from_fire.htm">cardiovascular problems</a>. Considering that it is the macrophage’s job to remove foreign material – including smoke particles and pathogens – it is reasonable to make a <a href="http://doi.org/10.3109/08958378.2012.756086">connection</a> between smoke exposure and risk of viral infection.</p>
<p>Recent evidence suggests that long-term exposure to PM2.5 may make the coronavirus more deadly. A nationwide study found that even a small increase in PM2.5 from one U.S. county to the next was associated with a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054502">large increase in the death rate</a> from COVID-19.</p>
<h2>What can you do to stay healthy?</h2>
<p>Here’s the advice I would give just about anyone downwind from a wildfire.</p>
<p>Stay informed about air quality by identifying local resources for air quality alerts, information about active fires and recommendations for better health practices. </p>
<p>If possible, avoid being outside or doing strenuous activity, like running or cycling, when there is an air quality warning for your area.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Dark smoke over tree tops looks menacing" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353785/original/file-20200820-20-dsdu2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353785/original/file-20200820-20-dsdu2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353785/original/file-20200820-20-dsdu2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353785/original/file-20200820-20-dsdu2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353785/original/file-20200820-20-dsdu2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353785/original/file-20200820-20-dsdu2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353785/original/file-20200820-20-dsdu2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wildfire smoke pours over palm trees lining a street in Azusa, California, on Aug. 13, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/California-Wildfires/90e2257bf5394b46835b9d8b75b70e5c/15/0">AP Images/Marcio Jose Sanchez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Be aware that not all face masks protect against smoke particles. Most cloth masks will not capture small wood smoke particles. That requires an N95 mask that fits and is worn properly. Without a proper fit, N95s do not work as well.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Establish a clean space. Some communities in western states have offered “clean spaces” programs that help people take refuge in buildings with clean air and air conditioning. However, during the pandemic, being in an enclosed space with others can create other health risks. At home, a person can create clean and cool spaces using a window air conditioner and a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kH5APw_SLUU">portable air purifier</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/how-smoke-fires-can-affect-your-health">The Environmental Protection Agency also advises</a> people to avoid anything that contributes to indoor air pollutants. That includes vacuuming that can stir up pollutants, as well as burning candles, firing up gas stoves and smoking.</p>
<p><em>This is an <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-in-wildfire-smoke-and-why-is-it-so-bad-for-your-lungs-144790">update to a story</a> originally published on Aug. 20, 2020.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164597/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Montrose does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research found that smoke from the Camp Fire in Paradise, California, carried high concentrations of lead. An environmental toxicologist explains what else you’re breathing and how to stay safe.Luke Montrose, Assistant Professor of Community and Environmental Health, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1331352020-03-11T15:14:15Z2020-03-11T15:14:15ZBiden’s big night with moderates, African Americans and baby boomers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319774/original/file-20200311-116270-17qu4ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vice President Joe Biden enters a campaign event in Columbus, Ohio on March 10.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Joe-Biden/2cc81ddbdb424dbbbe52232be8e9d7ce/33/0">AP Photo/Paul Vernon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: With the race for the Democratic presidential nomination narrowed to two front-runners, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, six states went to the polls on March 10: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington. We asked three scholars to examine the primary results.</em></p>
<p><strong>Keisha N. Blain, University of Pittsburgh</strong></p>
<p>The March 10 Democratic primary results highlight the power of the African American vote. </p>
<p>Despite Sanders’ efforts to reach African American voters, he was unable to win their vote on Tuesday night. He underperformed in several states, including <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-bernie-sanders-did-on-super-tuesday-2020-2016-maps-2020-3">some he previously won in 2016</a>. At the heart of Sanders’ loss is the African American vote.</p>
<p>While African American voters are not a monolithic group, the majority lent their support to Biden on March 10. There are <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-has-black-voters-support-over-sanders-it-s-not-ncna1150576">many factors</a> that account for this decision. Many African Americans believe that Biden will <a href="https://apnews.com/ca32b175f2d249e5075bb057afa4748e">extend the legacy of former President Barack Obama</a>. Others are lukewarm towards Sanders because of what they perceive as <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/07/why-bernie-sanders-economic-message-isnt-enough-to-win-over-black-voters-118197">the senator’s emphasis on economic inequality over racial injustice</a>. </p>
<p>These concerns, among others, guaranteed Biden’s lead on Super Tuesday, and they guaranteed his lead last night. The African American vote has now paved the way for Biden’s success.</p>
<p>This is most evident in the state of Mississippi, where African Americans represented <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/486936-black-voters-deliver-decisive-victory-for-biden-in-mississippi">approximately 75% of the Democratic primary vote</a>, the highest rate of any state to date. Despite a significant endorsement from <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryancbrooks/bernie-sanders-2020-mississippi-endorse-lumumba">Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba of Jackson, Mississippi</a>, Sanders managed to win only 14.9% of the black vote in Mississippi. Biden won <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/10/21171465/mississippi-primary-winner-joe-biden-super-tuesday-2?__c=1">a whopping 81%</a>.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, it is unlikely that Sanders will be able to secure enough delegates to seize the Democratic nomination. His inability to win over black voters will certainly guarantee this outcome. Much like the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-bernie-sanders-did-on-super-tuesday-2020-2016-maps-2020-3">primaries of 2016</a>, <a href="http://keishablain.com/about">I expect</a> Sanders will come close to a win – but not close enough.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sanders greets voters outside a polling location at Warren E. Bow Elementary School in Detroit, Michigan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Election-2020-Bernie-Sanders/87dc87d0f5b64e0db862b8e5328bd039/13/0">AP Photo/Paul Sancya</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Luke Perry, Utica University</strong></p>
<p>Joe Biden’s post-South Carolina <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-rolls-on-with-big-win-in-michigan-grows-delegate-lead-over-sanders/ar-BB110VXQ">dominance continued in Michigan</a>, the big prize yesterday with over <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/michigan/">one-third of the delegates in play</a> for that evening. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2012/11/12/politics/blue-wall-democrats-election/index.html">Obama carried Michigan</a> in 2008 and 2012 as part of the Democratic “blue wall” in the Midwest.</p>
<p>Biden on Tuesday won 52.9% of the Michigan primary vote, securing 53 delegates. This is 14 more than Sanders, who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/09/us/politics/primary-elections-michigan.html">won Michigan in 2016</a>.</p>
<p>Turnout was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election/in-crushing-blow-to-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-scores-big-michigan-win-idUSKBN20X162">up 30%</a> compared with the 2016 primary. Biden <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/michigan-democratic-primary-live-results/">leads all</a> of Michigan’s 83 counties except for Ingham County, which is too close to call.</p>
<p>Biden’s strongest showing was among <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/michigan-democratic-primary-live-results/">older voters</a>, besting Sanders among those 45 and older.</p>
<p>In 2016, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/michigan/president">79%</a> of Michigan voters were over 30. Trump outperformed Hillary Clinton among this group. </p>
<p>During Obama’s second term, party affiliation among baby boomers (age 52 to 70) and the Silent Generation (age 71 to 88) shifted from evenly divided between the two major parties to decidedly Republican.</p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.people-press.org/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/">53%</a> of the Silent Generation identified as Republican in 2016, and 40% as Democrat. This was a complete reversal from 1992, when Bill Clinton was elected.</p>
<p>Republicans have already begun to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/10/trump-biden-clinton-age-senile-124797">frame Biden’s age, 77, negatively</a>. But Biden’s appeal to older voters in swing states like Michigan and Florida could be key to the Democrats’ future.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">King County Election workers collect ballots from a drop box in the Washington State primary.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Washington/1f03e8f2d5f0447aac4b911818bec929/25/0">AP Photo/John Froschauer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Matthew May, Boise State University</strong></p>
<p>The results of Idaho’s Democratic primary help illustrate how much the rules of an electoral contest can shape its story.</p>
<p>Heading into Tuesday’s presidential primary, there were two unanswered questions in Idaho. </p>
<p>First, it was the first time Democratic voters would be casting ballots in a presidential primary, after decades of caucuses. How much would Democrats switching from a caucus to a primary affect voter turnout? Second, would Sanders be able to replicate <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/sanders-wins-idaho-221138">his decisive 2016 victory</a>, where he won 43 of Idaho’s 44 counties, under a primary? </p>
<p>The answers: Turnout did dramatically increase, but Sanders did not get another win.</p>
<p>The move from caucuses to a primary this year followed <a href="https://www.idahopress.com/news/local/idaho-dems-to-switch-to-presidential-primary-rather-than-caucuses/article_36285da4-e7ee-5024-91a3-ba07e91cc373.html">long wait times across the state</a> in 2016 and generally low voter turnout in the caucuses. <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-will-democrats-move-away-from-caucuses-affect-the-2020-race/">Many states explored</a> making this move following the last presidential primary cycle, because research shows that it improves turnout. </p>
<p>While a highly contested race certainly helped, Idaho’s switch from a caucus to a primary appears to have successfully increased voter turnout. In both 2008 and 2016, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/idaho">only 3%</a> of <a href="https://sos.idaho.gov/elect/VoterReg/turnout.html">registered voters</a> in Idaho went to the Democratic caucuses.</p>
<p>On Tuesday, Democratic turnout rose to 12%, exceeding 10% of registered voters for the first time since 1994. More than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/10/us/elections/results-idaho-president-democrat-primary-election.html">107,000 voters</a> cast a ballot in the Democratic primary, easily eclipsing the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/idaho">23,000 ballots</a> in 2016.</p>
<p>With victories in <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2020/03/03/colorado-primary-president-democrats-results/">Colorado</a>, <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/03/04/bernie-sanders-takes/">Utah</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/22/nevada-caucuses-biden-sanders-116719">Nevada</a>, the conventional wisdom heading into the night was that the Mountain West electorate favored Sanders. </p>
<p>As results came in, that proved incorrect. With substantially more voters participating in the primary, it made repeating the electoral landslide of the 2016 caucus more difficult for Sanders. Generally, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/03/2020-elections-caucuses-democrats-primaries-bernie-sanders-1078031">his supporters are more committed to his success</a> and thus more likely to wait in long lines to ensure that the caucus goes for him. In primaries, more casual voters are able to go in, vote and continue on with their day.</p>
<p>While Sanders won <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/idaho">78% of the caucus vote</a> in 2016, 2020 was Biden’s night. Biden <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/10/us/elections/results-idaho-president-democrat-primary-election.html">garnered 49% to Sanders’ 43%</a>, winning 38 counties while Sanders only carried five, with one county tied. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133135/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the race for the Democratic nomination narrowed to Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, six more states went to the polls on March 10. We asked three scholars to interpret the results.Luke Perry, Professor of Political Science, Utica UniversityKeisha N. Blain, Associate Professor of History, University of PittsburghMatthew May, Senior Research Associate, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065002018-11-14T11:47:12Z2018-11-14T11:47:12ZA county in Idaho offered Spanish-language ballots for the first time and here’s what happened<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/un-condado-de-idaho-en-eeuu-ofrecio-papeletas-en-espanol-por-primera-vez-y-esto-es-lo-que-paso-106976">Leer en español</a></em>.</p>
<p>On the morning of Election Day, the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/matters-donde-votar-spanish-vote-googles-top-search/story?id=59003457">top trending search on Google was “donde votar</a>,” which means “where to vote” in Spanish.</p>
<p>Voter access to the polls was a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45986329">major issue</a> during the 2018 midterm elections in the U.S. Charges of voter suppression were made in in Georgia and North Dakota. Critics of new voting rules claimed they disenfranchised African-Americans and Native Americans. </p>
<p>While those problems were extensively covered by the press, less attention was paid to another problem that can affect voter turnout: the availability of foreign-language ballots.</p>
<p>Lack of access to non-English ballots can be an <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2647557">obstacle to voting for immigrants</a>. Simply put, if voters can’t understand the ballot, they may not vote.</p>
<p>That’s why the <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/voting-rights/voting-rights-determination-file.html">Voting Rights Act</a> has protections for <a href="https://www.justice.gov/crt/page/file/927236/download">language minorities</a>, defined as “persons who are American Indian, Asian American, Alaskan Natives, or of Spanish heritage.” The act requires local election officials to provide foreign-language election materials in regions that have a certain number of voters with limited English proficiency. <a href="https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/crt/legacy/2011/11/04/28CFRPart55.pdf">Election materials</a> can include registration or voting notices, instructions and ballots.</p>
<p>After the 2016 election, the Census Bureau released a list of 263 jurisdictions in 29 states required to offer such <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/12/16/more-voters-will-have-access-to-non-english-ballots-in-the-next-election-cycle/">foreign-language election materials</a>. Those areas included close to 70 million voters with limited English who could vote in the 2018 election. For the first time, Idaho had a jurisdiction required to offer Spanish-language ballots. </p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://sps.boisestate.edu/ipi/gabe-osterhout/">researcher</a> at Boise State University’s Idaho Policy Institute where I study the impact of electoral policy on voter turnout and outcomes. I examined how this new requirement affected voter behavior on Election Day in Idaho. </p>
<p>While my findings seem to be an outlier in the larger context of election language assistance studies, the experience of one county may help broaden our understanding of the impact of foreign-language ballots as the <a href="https://www.idahostatejournal.com/members/growing-hispanic-population-part-of-idaho-s-history/article_f65db386-4315-11e5-b41e-e731d99a9f78.html">Hispanic population continues to grow</a> in Idaho and elsewhere.</p>
<h2>The curious case of Idaho</h2>
<p>Idaho has 80,000 Hispanic voters, 7 percent of Idaho’s <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/fact-sheet/latinos-in-the-2016-election-idaho/">eligible voter population</a>. Lincoln County is a small, rural area in southern Idaho. It has slightly more than <a href="http://www.statsamerica.org/USCP/">5,000 residents, including 1,600 Hispanics</a>, representing 30 percent of the county’s population. Among those that speak Spanish at home, <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml">60 percent do not speak English very well</a>. </p>
<p>I studied <a href="http://lincolncountyid.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Nov-2018-General-election-Unofficial-results-1.pdf">Lincoln County’s turnout</a> before and after the 2018 election to see if election language assistance affected voter behavior in the Latino community.</p>
<p>Compared to previous midterm elections, the county’s 68 percent turnout was higher than in <a href="https://sos.idaho.gov/elect/results/index.html">2014, 2010 and 2006</a>. However, this year’s elections also saw <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/11/08/665197690/a-boatload-of-ballots-midterm-voter-turnout-hit-50-year-high">higher voter turnout</a> across Idaho and the United States, which makes it difficult to isolate the impact of Spanish-language ballots.</p>
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<p>To dig deeper, I compared voter turnout in Lincoln to three neighboring and demographically similar counties: Minidoka, Jerome and Gooding. The four counties all have Hispanic populations ranging from <a href="https://icha.idaho.gov/menus/idaho_counties.asp">29 percent to 34 percent of the population</a>. But unlike Lincoln, its neighboring counties were not required to offer Spanish-language ballots.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map showing the percentage increase in turnout in 2018 from the previous three midterm years in four counties in Idaho.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I found that Lincoln County’s voter turnout didn’t increase in 2018 from the previous three midterms any more than its neighbors. </p>
<p>Turnout in Lincoln rose <a href="http://lincolncountyid.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Nov-2018-General-election-Unofficial-results-1.pdf">5.4 percent</a> compared to the previous three midterm elections, while <a href="https://www.jeromecountyid.us/DocumentCenter/View/496/General-Election-Results">Jerome</a> rose 5.6 percent, <a href="http://www.minidoka.id.us/DocumentCenter/View/430/Nov-6-2018-General-Unofficial-Abstract">Minidoka</a> rose 8.4 percent, and <a href="https://www.goodingcounty.org/DocumentCenter/View/1071/NOV-6-2018-UNOFFICIAL-RESULTS0001">Gooding</a> rose 9.1 percent. These three counties had higher rates of increased voter turnout compared to recent midterms than Lincoln County did.</p>
<p>Does this mean that Spanish-language ballots don’t affect Hispanic election participation? From this case, it’s hard to tell. </p>
<p>Here’s what we know based on previous research.</p>
<h2>The bigger picture</h2>
<p>Counties that offered language assistance in previous elections have experienced increased minority participation. Since the Voting Rights Act was amended to include minority language assistance in 1975, <a href="https://heinonline.org/hol-cgi-bin/get_pdf.cgi?handle=hein.journals/tfcl12&section=10">Hispanic voter registration doubled over the following 30 years</a>. Language assistance has a significant effect on voting turnout for minority groups, <a href="http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=0801553&site=ehost-live">especially for first-generation citizens</a>.</p>
<p>Other studies show that, despite helping increase voter turnout, election language assistance <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2011.00302.x">does not help increase voter registration</a> for people who don’t speak English fluently. This is an important consideration since voter turnout compares the number of ballots cast to the number of registered voters, not the total population.</p>
<p>Overall, studies show that foreign-language assistance, and especially Spanish-language ballots, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23025122">make it easier for immigrant populations</a> to engage in the election process and have increased voter turnout among Hispanic citizens. </p>
<p>The turnout in Lincoln County, Idaho this year seems to be an outlier. This may be due to a few reasons. For one, the small sampling size of a sparsely populated county means that even minor changes in voting behavior can create erratic statistical swings. Further, with 2018 being Lincoln County’s first major election to offer Spanish ballots, we can only look at one data point. Its turnout numbers will become more reliable and significant as future elections take place and offer more data points. As the first bilingual election, it is also possible that some members of the community were not aware of the opportunity to vote in another language.</p>
<p>Lincoln County also has a significantly <a href="https://sos.idaho.gov/elect/VoterReg/2018/11/partybycounty.html">lower percentage of registered</a> Democratic voters compared to other regions in the country offering foreign-language ballots. This is important because turnout in 2018 was higher in <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/09/04/643686875/democrats-2018-primary-turnout-mirrors-previous-wave-elections">liberal-leaning areas</a>.</p>
<p>There are likely other electoral factors at play that need more consideration, but these findings will perhaps prove helpful, as other Idaho counties <a href="https://www.idahopress.com/news/elections/county-poll-workers-can-assist-voters-in-spanish/article_f9120b0c-da3d-515c-854b-406d4ca39e59.html">will likely be required to offer</a> Spanish-language ballots after the next census as the state’s Hispanic population continues to grow.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabe Osterhout does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Voting Rights Act offers language assistance for voters with limited English proficiency. What can we learn from an Idaho county’s experience offering foreign-language ballots?Gabe Osterhout, Research Associate, Idaho Policy Institute, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/947952018-06-08T10:52:24Z2018-06-08T10:52:24ZThe nuclear industry is making a big bet on small power plants<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222045/original/file-20180606-137322-1jdd1qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NuScale Power aims to build the nation's first advanced small modular reactor.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.energy.gov/ne/nuclear-reactor-technologies/small-modular-nuclear-reactors">U.S. Department of Energy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Until now, generating nuclear power has required massive facilities surrounded by acres of buildings, electrical infrastructure, roads, parking lots and more. The nuclear industry is trying to change that picture – by going small.</p>
<p>Efforts to build the nation’s first “advanced small modular reactor,” or SMR, <a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/04/nuscale-small-modular-nuclear-reactor-first-ever-to-complete-nrc-phase-1-review.html">in Idaho</a>, are on track for it to become operational by the mid-2020s. The project took a crucial step forward when the company behind it, NuScale, secured an <a href="http://newsroom.nuscalepower.com/press-release/company/nuscale-powers-small-modular-nuclear-reactor-becomes-first-ever-complete-nucle">important security certification</a> from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. </p>
<p>But the first ones could be generating power <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-expands-international-cooperation-on-small-medium-sized-or-modular-nuclear-reactors">by 2020 in China, Argentina and Russia</a>, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. </p>
<p>The debate continues over whether this technology is worth pursuing, but the <a href="http://smrstart.org/">nuclear industry</a> isn’t waiting for a verdict. Nor, as an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dCRySjIAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">energy scholar</a>, do I think it should. This new generation of smaller and more technologically advanced reactors offer many advantages, including an assembly-line approach to production, vastly reduced meltdown risks and greater flexibility in terms of where they can be located, among others. </p>
<h2>How small is small?</h2>
<p>Most small modular reactors <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-power-reactors/small-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx">now in the works</a> range between 50 megawatts – roughly enough power for 60,000 <a href="http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/average-household-electricity-consumption">modern U.S. homes</a> – and 200 megawatts. And there are designs for even smaller “mini” or “micro-reactors” that generate <a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/03/4-megawatt-modular-micro-nuclear.html">as few as 4 megawatts</a>.</p>
<p>In contrast, full-sized nuclear reactors built today will generate about 1,000-1,600 megawatts of electricity, although many built before 1990, including over half the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=104&t=3">99 reactors now operating in the U.S.</a>, are smaller than this. </p>
<p>But small nuclear reactors aren’t actually new. India has the most, with 18 <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/india.aspx">reactors with capacity ranging between 90 and 220 megawatts</a>, which were built between 1981 and 2011.</p>
<p>The U.S., Russia, China, India, France and the U.K. operate <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/non-power-nuclear-applications/transport/nuclear-powered-ships.aspx">hundreds of nuclear submarines</a> and aircraft carriers. Russia has dozens of nuclear-powered icebreakers cruising around the Arctic, and its first <a href="https://gizmodo.com/russias-floating-nuclear-power-plant-has-hit-the-sea-1825650002%22%22">floating nuclear power plant</a> has been completed and will be deployed in 2019 near the town of Pevek in East Siberia. </p>
<p>The Siberian plant will replace <a href="https://insp.pnnl.gov/-profiles-bilibino-bi.htm">four 12-megawatt reactors the Soviets built in the 1970s</a> to power a remote town and administrative center, as well as mining and oil drilling operations.</p>
<p>Even though the reactors will be small, they may operate at much bigger power plants with multiple reactors. NuScale, for example, wants to install 12 reactors at its initial Idaho site. Based on the company’s latest projections, it will have a <a href="http://newsroom.nuscalepower.com/press-release/company/breakthrough-nuscale-power-increase-its-smr-output-delivers-customers-20-perce">total capacity of 720 megawatts</a>.</p>
<h2>A global trend</h2>
<p>Private and state-owned companies are seeking to build these small power plants in about <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-power-reactors/small-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx">a dozen countries</a> so far, including the U.S. and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nuclear-smr/nuclear-developers-have-big-plans-for-pint-sized-power-plants-in-uk-idUSKCN10X1FC">the U.K.</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/france-nuclearpower-smr/france-considers-developing-mini-nuclear-reactors-eyes-cost-idUSL8N1QX6WS">France</a>, which gets three-quarters of its electricity from <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx">nuclear energy</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/small-nuclear-power-reactors-future-or-folly-81252">Canada</a> may soon join the fray.</p>
<p>This global interest in small modular reactors comes as <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-wastes/decommissioning-nuclear-facilities.aspx">more standard nuclear reactors are being decommissioned</a> than <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx">are under construction</a>. </p>
<h2>Some advantages</h2>
<p>Proponents of these advanced small modular reactors say they will be <a href="http://www.nuscalepower.com/why-smr">easier to build and more flexible in terms of where they can be located</a> than the larger kind. The word “modular” refers to how they will be built in factory-like settings, ready for hauling either fully assembled or in easily connected parts by truck, rail or sea. </p>
<p>These reactors can potentially power rural towns, industrial plants, mountainous areas and military bases, as well as urban districts and ports. Small modular reactors may also prove handy for industrial uses.</p>
<p>Small modular reactors will differ from the smaller reactors already deployed because of their new technologies. These advances are intended to make it less likely or even <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2018/01/24/can-we-make-a-nuclear-reactor-that-wont-melt-down/#3a5ccf195b7e">impossible for them to melt down or explode</a>, as happened during <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-accident.aspx">Japan’s Fukushima disaster</a>.</p>
<p>The power plants where these small reactors will be located will have added protections against sabotage and the theft of radioactive material. For example, they may be equipped with <a href="http://www.nuscalepower.com/smr-benefits/safe">cooling systems that continue working</a> even if no operators are present and all electric power is lost. In many cases, the entire reactor and steam-generating equipment will be below ground to safeguard these facilities during natural disasters like the earthquake and tsunamis that led three Fukushima Daiichi reactors to melt down. </p>
<p>Like renewable energy, nuclear power emits no carbon. And compared to wind and solar power, which are intermittent sources, or hydropower, which is affected by seasonal changes and droughts, it operates all the time and has a much smaller footprint.</p>
<p>As a result, small modular reactors could be <a href="https://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:43012344">paired with renewable sources</a> as a substitute for coal-fired or natural gas plants. Yet they will probably have to compete with advanced <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-energy-storage-is-starting-to-rewire-the-electricity-industry-93259">energy storage systems</a> for that market. </p>
<h2>Concerns and costs</h2>
<p>Whether these advantages materialize, obviously, remains to be seen once these reactors are deployed. <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/got-science-podcast/ed-lyman#.Wxk8-kgvxPY">Some experts are skeptical</a> of the industry’s promises and expectations.</p>
<p>Although small modular reactors are designed to produce <a href="https://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/201701/reactors.cfm">less radioactive waste</a> than standard, bigger reactors for the same amount of power, the issue of where to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-federal-government-has-long-treated-nevada-as-a-dumping-ground-and-its-not-just-yucca-mountain-96700">safely dispose of nuclear waste</a> remains unresolved. </p>
<p>Small modular reactors face other challenges, some of their own making.</p>
<p>Strong interest in the potential global market has led many companies to propose their own individual reactor designs. In my opinion, there are already too many versions out there. Before long, a shakeout will occur.</p>
<p>And, especially in the U.S., there is currently no clarity regarding the length of time required for licensing new reactor designs lacking any commercial track record – creating a lot of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rodadams/2017/01/09/nrc-vision-and-strategy-for-licensing-advanced-reactors-needs-improvement/#793becf81bcb">regulatory uncertainty</a>.</p>
<p>It’s also unclear what small modular reactor-generated power will cost. That will probably remain the case for at least the next 10 to 15 years, until a few designs are actually built and operating.</p>
<p>Some experts foresee small modular reactors penciling out at levels that could be <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/interest-in-small-modular-nuclear-grows#gs.3ln6s0E">higher than for full-sized reactors</a> which generally <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf">cost more to build</a> and <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_08_04.html">operate</a> than other options, like natural gas, for the same amount of power. NuScale, however, predicts that its SMRs will be <a href="http://www.powermag.com/nuscale-boosts-smr-capacity-making-it-cost-competitive-with-other-technologies/">more competitive</a> than that in terms of their cost.</p>
<p>And some observers fear that reactor owners might <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/nuclear_power/small-isnt-always-beautiful.pdf">cut corners</a> to reduce costs, compromising safety or security.</p>
<p>Although their costs are unclear and their advantages relative to other energy choices remain unproven, I believe these small reactors, as non-carbon sources, are needed to help resolve the energy challenges of our time. And the rest of the world seems ready to give them a try with or without the U.S.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94795/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott L. Montgomery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Advanced small modular reactors, known as SMRs, will probably have many advantages over older technology. But it’s not yet known how they will stack up against other sources of electricity.Scott L. Montgomery, Lecturer, Jackson School of International Studies, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/828632017-08-25T07:39:29Z2017-08-25T07:39:29ZRuby Ridge: 25 years since the siege that fired up the US’s radical right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183173/original/file-20170823-4869-1dhpuv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C140%2C1200%2C752&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A surveillance photograph of Vicki Weaver at Ruby Ridge, 1992.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ASurveillance_photograph_of_Vicki_Weaver_21_Aug_1992.jpg">U.S. Marshal Service/Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>History matters a great deal on the American right – and a highly significant anniversary is just around the corner.</p>
<p>On August 30 1992, negotiators brought an end to the violent siege of an isolated homestead in mountainous northern Idaho. The standoff at Ruby Ridge claimed the lives of a federal agent, a 14-year-old boy, and a mother with a baby in her arms, though the man at the centre of the siege, Randy Weaver, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/09/03/standoff-at-ruby-ridge/3704b446-abed-4cf9-9a89-7b19208079b9/?utm_term=.4dbac158c925">never fired a shot</a> in retaliation.</p>
<p>Weaver had taken his family into seclusion near the Canadian border as part of his <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/ruby-ridge-part-one-suspicion/">ideological transition</a> from fundamentalist Protestantism to an idiosyncratic blend of visionary religion, conspiracy theory and racial separatism. Before the siege began, an undercover informant had tried and failed to coerce Weaver into spying on a community of neo-Nazis in nearby <a href="https://timeline.com/white-supremacist-rural-paradise-fb62b74b29e0">Hayden Lake</a>, but succeeded in setting him up for a firearms offence. Weaver did not appear for his court hearing – it later transpired that a letter requiring this appearance had <a href="https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/opr/legacy/2006/11/09/rubyreportcover_39.pdf">given the wrong date</a> – and became the subject of year-long surveillance by US Marshals. </p>
<p>Believing himself to be the victim of entrapment, Weaver’s anti-government paranoia was confirmed by his discovery of listening devices that had been planted around his cabin. On August 21, marshals disturbed the family dogs, triggering a short firefight that killed both Deputy US Marshal Bill Degan and Sammy Weaver, who had been shot in the back. The next day, Vicki Weaver was killed by a sniper while standing in the doorway of her cabin home. </p>
<p>The siege of the Weaver cabin grew to involve hundreds of federal agents, and lasted 12 days, until civilian negotiators were able to strike a deal. The court case that followed cleared Randy Weaver of all charges other than missing his court date and violating bail, for which he was fined US$10,000 and given a short custodial sentence. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/09/03/standoff-at-ruby-ridge/3704b446-abed-4cf9-9a89-7b19208079b9/?utm_term=.4dbac158c925">investigation</a> that followed the court case determined that the situation at Ruby Ridge had escalated thanks to the carelessness and overreach of federal agencies, <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/1995-08-16/news/mn-35756_1_ruby-ridge">awarded the family</a> a US$3.1m settlement, and confirmed that Weaver’s paranoia had not been misplaced. But the lessons were not quickly learned. </p>
<h2>Up in flames</h2>
<p>In March and April 1993, the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Ruby-Ridge-incident#ref1197110">same sniper</a> who shot Vicki Weaver in the Ruby Ridge incident was sent to Waco, Texas, to take part in another siege. This time, the government confronted a large and well-established religious community known as the Branch Davidians, an offshoot of the Seventh-day Adventists, who were suspected of hoarding <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2000/jul/07/news/mn-49078">illegal firearms</a> in their compound. After a <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/10-things-you-may-not-know-about-waco/">protracted standoff</a>, federal forces attempted to flush out the community’s members with tear gas, but the complex was engulfed by a fire that killed 76 people.</p>
<p>Apart from their hostility to the federal government and its agencies, the Weaver family and the Waco community had little in common. Randy Weaver was a racial separatist who had some informal association with the Aryan Nations movement; the Branch Davidians were a mixed-race religious community whose only association with extreme politics was an intense suspicion of government power and faith in guns.</p>
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<p>Nevertheless, the deaths at Ruby Ridge and Waco provided the emerging radical right with a <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=PTR7AAAAQBAJ&pg=PA8&lpg=PA8&dq=ruby+ridge+formation+militia+culture&source=bl&ots=4Cb-XaxTC9&sig=eSzca3uRWGXTe9XE7ij4t0YDd0I&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiiyJT2oOnVAhXpDcAKHVfNDUoQ6AEIQzAH#v=onepage&q=ruby%20ridge%20fo">pantheon of martyrs</a> that a then-nascent modern militia movement could claim as its own. </p>
<p>The seemingly out-of-control actions of government agencies at Ruby Ridge and Waco pulled competing elements of the radical, conservative and libertarian right into an informal coalition, one that contributed to the conspiratorial popular cultures of the mid- and late-1990s. </p>
<p>This tendency’s most extreme and lethal expression came on April 13 1995, the second anniversary of the Waco fire, when <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2001/09/mcveigh200109">Timothy McVeigh</a> planted a bomb next to a federal building in Oklahoma City. The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ9Li_sxljk">ensuing explosion</a> killed 168 individuals, making it the worst incident of domestic terrorism in American history.</p>
<h2>On the march again</h2>
<p>As a <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/oklahoma-city/">recent PBS documentary</a> suggests, the events of Ruby Ridge, Waco and Oklahoma City are as politically potent as ever, and not just as turning points in the rise of the radical right of the 1990s.</p>
<p>Despite the events in <a href="https://theconversation.com/confederate-and-black-america-why-clashes-at-charlottesville-show-civil-war-alt-histories-are-more-than-just-fantasy-82348">Charlottesville</a>, when it comes to the fight over whose politics can be acceptably commemorated in public, the left is winning. In the name of eradicating slaveholders and Confederate leaders from commemorative public life, universities have changed the lyrics of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39559232">university hymns</a> and the <a href="http://college.usatoday.com/2017/02/14/renaming-university-buildings-with-racist-namesakes-is-an-uphill-battle/">names of prominent campus buildings</a>. Confederate battle flags have been removed from public display across the South, including by <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/10/politics/nikki-haley-confederate-flag-removal/index.html">state governments</a>. Campaigners are now turning their attention to other examples of the exhibition of Confederate iconography, including the Charlottesville statues whose fate sparked the recent fracas.</p>
<p>This campaign is gathering pace. After Charlottesville, anti-racist protesters gathered in Durham, North Carolina, to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-uAZa4H1vk">topple a statue of General Robert E. Lee</a>; city authorities in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/16/baltimore-takes-down-confederate-statues-in-middle-of-night">Baltimore</a> and <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-taney-statue-removed-20170818-story.html">Annapolis</a> removed Confederate memorials by night in a bid to forestall further public action, and authorities <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/15/us/confederate-memorial-removal-us-trnd/index.html">elsewhere</a> are reportedly planning to follow suit.</p>
<p>But insofar as these efforts are meant to erase the memory of the Confederate past, they are almost certainly futile. It is almost impossible to police cultures of commemoration: the American right, newly reconfigured, radicalised and increasingly agitated, is searching for historical roots and historical identity, and it will find them somewhere. After all, history will always offer some sort of <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ruby-ridge-siege-25-years-called-rallying-cry/story?id=49296439">vindication</a> for anyone who seeks it out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crawford Gribben has received funding for his work on radical religion from the Irish Research Council and the Ministerial Advisory Group on Ulster Scots (DCAL, Northern Ireland). He is writing about cultures of survivalism in north Idaho in a current book project.</span></em></p>The radical right has a keen sense of its own history, and the violence of the 1990s is still fresh in its memory.Crawford Gribben, Professor of history, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/560002016-03-09T17:42:20Z2016-03-09T17:42:20ZWhy March 15 will be make-or-break for the presidential candidates<p>The strangest and most volatile presidential race in modern history got even more unpredictable on Tuesday night. </p>
<p>On the Republican side, Donald Trump overcame a relentless wave of establishment attacks to win <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-wins-mississippi-michigan-primaries/2016/03/08/ecb576d6-e539-11e5-b0fd-073d5930a7b7_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop_b">Mississippi, Michigan and Hawaii</a> by large margins. Trump’s only defeat of the night was by Ted Cruz in the Idaho caucuses. </p>
<p>On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders proved the polls and pundits wrong by narrowly edging out Hillary Clinton in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news">Michigan</a>. Equally important, however, Clinton won a landslide victory over Sanders in Mississippi. </p>
<p>So what does it all say about the state of the 2016 presidential race? Here are the four most important takeaways from Tuesday’s vote:</p>
<h2>1. Trump’s momentum is becoming unstoppable</h2>
<p>Trump’s <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news">victories on Tuesday night</a> were extremely impressive. He won Michigan by 12 percentage points, Mississippi by 11 points and Hawaii by 9. The only contest he lost – Idaho – was one in which he had no campaign organization and made no effort to win. </p>
<p>As a result, Trump has nearly a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results">100-delegate lead</a> over his rivals. </p>
<p>Just a few days ago, Trump seemed to be losing steam, particularly after his opponents aired a series of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/04/anti-trump-group-expands-attack-into-illinois/">television attack ads</a> in key states. The attacks focused on Trump’s business record, such as the fraud lawsuits that surround <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/02/29/a-trio-of-truthful-attack-ads-about-trump-university/">Trump University</a> and the billionaire’s <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/article/432518/donald-trumps-failures-his-excuses-resemble-obamas">four bankruptcies</a>. The 2012 GOP nominee <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/04/us/politics/mitt-romney-speech.html">Mitt Romney</a> piled on by calling Trump a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/03/mitt-romney-trump-is-a-phony-a-fraud-who-is-playing-the-american-public-for-suckers">phony and a fraud</a> who would likely <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/07/in-new-robocall-mitt-romney-says-donald-trump-would-lose-to-hillary-clinton/">lose to Hillary Clinton</a> in the general election. </p>
<p>But none of the attacks on Trump worked.</p>
<p>Trump’s crushing victories in Mississippi and Michigan were striking because they once again demonstrated his broad appeal to all segments and all regions of the Republican electorate. He won evangelicals, working-class voters and college graduates, just as he has in previous primaries. He also once again showed great geographical range, winning in the Deep South and in the heart of the industrial Midwest. By any conventional measure, Trump is a truly national candidate, at least among Republican voters.</p>
<p>Trump’s victories on Tuesday dealt a body blow to the campaigns of Marco Rubio and John Kasich. Rubio finished at or near the bottom in every race, and Kasich performed far worse than expected in Michigan, a Midwestern state he should have won. Consequently, Rubio’s campaign is on the verge of collapse and Kasich’s may not be far behind. </p>
<p>And although Ted Cruz’s victory in Idaho keeps his campaign viable, his victories have largely been confined to southern states and small caucus states. At this point, Cruz does not look like a national candidate. </p>
<p>The simple fact is the only candidate in the race who has broad support among all wings of the Republican Party is Donald Trump. </p>
<h2>2. Sanders proved pundits and pollsters wrong</h2>
<p>On the Democratic side, Sanders <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/michigan">barely won Michigan</a>, carrying the state over Clinton by a margin of 49.8 percent to 48.3 percent. </p>
<p>But despite the narrow margin, it was an extremely impressive victory for Sanders. Michigan is a big state with demographics that resemble the nation as a whole. By winning in Michigan, Sanders showed that he has much broader appeal in the Democratic party than many pundits, including me, believed. </p>
<p>Sanders’ win also represented one of the biggest comeback victories of the year. On the eve of the Michigan primary, Sanders trailed Clinton in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/09/polling-in-michigan-was-way-off-that-happens-more-than-we-recognize/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_fix-clinton-735am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory">state’s polls by 20 points</a>. But on election day, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/michigan">Sanders beat Clinton</a> by about 19,000 votes, a tremendous come-from-behind victory.</p>
<p>How did he do it? </p>
<p>The key to the Vermont senator’s success in Michigan was his focus on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/03/09/456e780e-e53a-11e5-b0fd-073d5930a7b7_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_democrats-1230am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory">protectionist trade policies</a>. Heavily dependent on the auto industry and manufacturing, Michigan has been hit hard by job losses to foreign competition. </p>
<p>Michigan’s painful economic history made it ripe territory for the protectionist messages of Trump and Sanders. In rhetoric strikingly similar to that employed by Trump, Sanders focused his efforts in Michigan on angry and bitter <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/09/us/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news">condemnations of international trade agreements</a>. His passionate defense of protectionist policies clearly resonated with Michigan voters. </p>
<p>The success of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/08/the-two-big-warning-signs-for-hillary-clinton-in-michigan/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_fix-clinton-735am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory">Sanders’ anti-trade message</a> will likely carry over into other Midwestern manufacturing states, like Ohio, Illinois, Missouri and Wisconsin. Michigan demonstrates there are many more states available for Sanders to win if he focuses on trade and jobs. </p>
<h2>3. Clinton still has a daunting delegate lead</h2>
<p>Without question, Sanders had a great showing in Michigan. And yet he still has little chance of winning the nomination.</p>
<p>How can that be?</p>
<p>The fundamental problem facing Sanders is the Democratic Party’s delegate awards process. Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats have no “winner-take-all” states. The delegates from every Democratic primary and caucus are awarded on a proportional basis. Consequently, once a candidate races out to a big delegate lead, it is exceedingly difficult for others to catch up.</p>
<p>Tuesday night was a perfect example of why. Clinton won <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results">Mississippi</a>, a state of three million people, and Sanders won Michigan, a state of 10 million people. But Clinton came out of the night with more delegates because she won Mississippi by a far larger margin than Sanders won <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results">Michigan</a>. </p>
<p>Clinton now has over a 200-delegate lead among <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html">pledged delegates</a> – the delegates awarded through the nominating contests – and more than a 400-delegate lead among <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html">superdelegates</a> – Democratic elected officials and party powerbrokers. In all, Clinton has a delegate lead of <a href="http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker">1,221 to 571</a> over Sanders. The first candidate to reach 2,383 delegates wins the nomination.</p>
<p>Even if Sanders wins a majority of Democratic voters from here on out, it is highly unlikely that he can overtake Clinton. The reason is the proportional delegate award system. To catch Clinton, he would need to win landslide victories in most of the remaining states. Indeed, he would need to win states like Ohio, llinois, New York and California by the same margin as Clinton won Mississippi on Tuesday night. That is the only way he can make up the difference in the delegate totals.</p>
<p>But close wins like Michigan won’t do it for him. </p>
<p>On Tuesday night, Sanders won 65 of Michigan’s delegates and Clinton won 58. No matter how many states Sanders wins between now and July, coming away with 7-delegate victory margins won’t be enough to deny Clinton the nomination. He needs to win by blowout margins to change the dynamics of the race and overcome the delegate math that is stacked against him. </p>
<h2>4. Circle March 15 on your calendar</h2>
<p>Everything now rests on the March 15 primaries of Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina. </p>
<p>Starting on March 15, many of the states on the GOP primary calendar become “winner-take-all,” which means whoever finishes in first takes all the state’s delegates. Up until now, all of the Republican contests have awarded delegates on a proportional basis. But that changes on March 15 with delegate-rich Florida and Ohio, both of which are winner-take-all states. </p>
<p>Winner-take-all states are crucial to Trump’s path to the nomination because so far he has been winning primaries with an average of about <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/10/upshot/divided-they-fall-as-donald-trump-enjoys-another-big-night.html">35 to 40 percent</a> of the vote. In winner-take-all states, Trump will get 100 percent of the delegates even if he wins with only 35 percent of the vote. Thus, if Trump wins both Florida and Ohio, it will be <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/07/why-florida-and-ohio-are-the-only-states-that-matter-in-the-republican-presidential-race-in-3-charts/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_trail">extremely difficult for his opponents to stop him</a> from winning the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the GOP nomination before the Cleveland convention in mid-July.</p>
<p>On the Democratic side, Sanders has a real chance to win Ohio, Illinois and Missouri on March 15. But in light of her immense strength among minority voters, Clinton is highly likely to win North Carolina and Florida. </p>
<p>Therefore, in order to get back in the race, Sanders needs to win states by huge margins. If he wins blowout victories on March 15, particularly in states he is not expected to win, then all bets are off. If he doesn’t, any chance Sanders has of winning the nomination will be over. </p>
<p>The bottom line is that March 15 looms as a momentous date on the 2016 presidential race calendar.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56000/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony J. Gaughan is a registered independent. </span></em></p>Trump’s momentum is unchecked by establishment critics, Sanders surprises in Michigan and other key takeaways from the voting on March 8.Anthony J. Gaughan, Associate Professor of Law, Drake UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.