tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/imran-khan-5452/articlesImran Khan – The Conversation2024-02-14T14:44:14Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229512024-02-14T14:44:14Z2024-02-14T14:44:14ZNo party won a majority in Pakistan’s contentious election. What happens now?<p>Pakistan’s recent general election has intensified the country’s tumultuous politics. The hotly contested election period <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/2/7/pakistan-election-2024-one-day-out-live">left 24 people dead following attacks on political offices and the suspension of cellular and internet services nationwide</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/09/asia/pakistan-election-nawaz-sharif-intl/index.html">With 98 of 264 seats, independents in Pakistan</a> — who are backed by the imprisoned former prime minister Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party — won the most seats.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/11/pakistan-election-results-put-imran-khans-independents-in-lead">The Pakistan Muslim League (PMLN), with 76 seats, trailed behind PTI while the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) won 54 seats</a>. But with no clear majority and amid widespread concerns about vote tampering and election engineering, there is further uncertainty about Pakistan’s political future.</p>
<p><a href="https://ca.news.yahoo.com/world-leaders-urge-probe-pakistan-072723654.html">Both PTI and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN have declared victory.</a> But it’s not clear who will become Pakistan’s next prime minister as none of the three major parties will be able to secure the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/asia/pakistan-election-results-released-intl-hnk/index.html">169 seats required to establish a majority in parliament and form a government on their own.</a></p>
<h2>Coalition speculation</h2>
<p>Other smaller parties also won representation, including a surprise comeback by the Karachi-based <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/11/pakistan-election-results-put-imran-khans-independents-in-lead">Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) with 17 seats, while multiple other parties secured a total of 20 seats among them</a>, including the <a href="https://www.samaa.tv/208739595-elections-2024-independents-grab-101-na-seats-pml-n-75-as-ecp-finally-completes-vote-count">Pakistan Muslim League — an offshoot of PMLN — the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party and the Jamiat-e-Ulema Party</a>.</p>
<p>There is speculation about a coalition between PMLN and the PPP, with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/how-will-pakistan-form-its-next-government-2024-02-12/">PTI-backed independents joining either party or a smaller party to gain a share of the parliament’s remaining 70 seats</a>.</p>
<p>Out of the National Assembly’s 336 total seats, there are 264 seats that each party hoping to form a majority government are likely vying for. There are also 70 reserved seats, 60 for women and 10 for non-Muslim candidates. </p>
<p>Khan’s PTI leadership is reportedly convening to discuss the results, <a href="https://www.nation.com.pk/10-Feb-2024/pti-convenes-meeting-to-discuss-alliances-with-other-parties">though it’s signalling it has no intention of forming a coalition government with the PPP and PMLN. It claims to have won 150 seats, not 98,</a> and can form a centrist government. However, these claims are unsubstantiated by official results. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.timesnownews.com/world/pakistan-elections-2024-nawaz-sharifs-pml-n-bilawal-bhuttos-ppp-agree-to-form-coalition-government-check-latest-party-position-article-107597000#:%7E:text=With%20this%2C%20now%20the%20Pakistan%20Muslim%20League-Nawaz%20%28PML-N%29,Zardari%2C%20inviting%20them%20to%20work%20together%20for%20Pakistan.">PPP and PMLN, meanwhile, have reportedly agreed to form a coalition government in Punjab</a>.</p>
<p>This will result in a cautious power-sharing exercise between two longtime fixtures of Pakistani politics.</p>
<p>On the one hand, there’s the PLMN’s Sharif — a three-time former prime minister — his brother Shabaz Sharif (also a former prime minister), Nawaz’s daughter Maryam Nawaz and Shabaz Sharif’s son Hamza (former chief minister of Punjab). </p>
<p>On the other hand, there’s the PPP’s Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (husband and son of the late Benazir Bhutto, respectively). </p>
<p>Each of them could possibly become the prime minister of a coalition government if an agreement is reached.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nation.com.pk/11-Feb-2024/newly-elected-pti-backed-mna-waseem-qadir-joins-pml-n">Some newly elected PTI-backed candidates have reportedly already joined PMLN</a>, with more independent candidates expected to swing in the coming days.</p>
<h2>Crackdowns cause outrage</h2>
<p>Pakistan’s crackdown on <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/23/pakistan-ex-pms-party-loses-election-symbol-will-it-hurt-its-prospects">PTI, including the loss of its election symbol and the imprisonment of its chairman</a>, angered party workers and supporters on the eve of the election.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/09/asia/pakistan-election-nawaz-sharif-intl/index.html">The unrest continues as citizens hold widespread protests across the country</a> over allegations of vote rigging and vote counts that took as long as <a href="https://ca.news.yahoo.com/imran-khan-supporters-win-most-122600451.html">three days.</a></p>
<p>PTI’s interim leadership has also called for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/11/protests-pakistan-election-vote-rigging-allegations-imran-khan">peaceful nationwide protests, alleging stolen votes.</a> With a hung parliament, intensifying political instability and a scramble to attain power are in full force in Pakistan.</p>
<h2>Military as the puppet-master</h2>
<p>The role of the military in Pakistan’s politics was widely criticized in the months leading up to the 2024 elections.</p>
<p><a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/pakistan-2024-national-elections-nawaz-sharif-imran-khan-and-pti-army-chief-bilawal-bhutto/articleshow/107480119.cms">Dubbed the “mother of all selections,”</a> the election results are widely believed to have been engineered by the most powerful political entity in the country — its military. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-pakistani-election-looms-the-military-maintains-its-grip-on-the-countrys-politics-221395">As Pakistani election looms, the military maintains its grip on the country's politics</a>
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<p>Using political repression, military generals have controlled the democratic process and electoral outcomes since Pakistan’s foundation in 1947. Khan blamed the military for the overthrow of his democratically elected government in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-61055210">2022 through a no-confidence vote</a>.</p>
<p>Sharif — who <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2024/2/4/how-much-influence-is-pakistans-army-having-on-upcoming-elections">has reconciled with the military since being ousted three times as prime minister, most recently in 2017</a> — was heavily favoured by the generals to win the 2024 election. His potential return to power for a fourth time following a self-imposed exile in the United Kingdom was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/05/pakistan-election-nawaz-sharif#:%7E:text=It%20was%20an%20alleged%20backroom,making%20him%20a%20clear%20frontrunner.">based on a backroom deal with the military</a> that sidelined Khan and the PTI.</p>
<p>Despite the military’s intervention, PTI-backed independents have gained significant ground. In a country where the military reigns supreme, PTI’s performance upended most political predictions that anyone who crosses the military cannot win.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, despite its strong showing, PTI is not likely to form a government.</p>
<p>As such, PTI-backed independents <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/11/world/asia/pakistan-election.html">must join a smaller party and form a coalition government, or be wooed by PMLN, a strategy that is already underway.</a> Sharif is reportedly partaking in horse-trading to court enough PTI-backed independents to form a government without the PPP or MQM. </p>
<h2>Will the military stand down?</h2>
<p>Experts believe <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react-imran-khans-party-outperformed-expectations-what-will-this-mean-for-pakistans-next-government/">the military must now seek reconciliation with Khan rather than support an unsustainable coalition against the PTI</a>. Given the growing wave of discontent against the Pakistan army, it would be wise to protect itself against further accusations of political meddling.</p>
<p>Pakistan’s political uncertainty comes at a time when the country is dealing with several pressing issues, including negotiating a new <a href="https://www.timesnownews.com/world/pakistan-elections-2024-nawaz-sharifs-pml-n-bilawal-bhuttos-ppp-agree-to-form-coalition-government-check-latest-party-position-article-107597000">International Monetary Fund program to support a faltering economy</a>, a sharp increase in government corruption and mismanagement, soaring inflation, <a href="https://www.nation.com.pk/11-Feb-2024/financial-issues-serious-economic-challenges-await-new-govt-apbf">economic challenges arising from the IMF bailout and subsequent debt restructuring, external debt of more than US$120 billion and rampant youth unemployment</a>.</p>
<p>The PTI and PPP have already ruled out <a href="https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/pakistan-election-results-shehbaz-sharif-may-become-next-pm-nawaz-sharif-temperament-will-not-suit-coalition-govt-imran-khan-pmln-ppp-bilawal-bhutto-2024-02-13-916619">post-election alliances with each other, while Nawaz has a reputation for being unsuitable to lead coalitions because of his temperment</a>. Some observers are even <a href="https://ca.news.yahoo.com/happens-next-pakistanis-wait-next-121138432.html">suggesting an outside candidate serve as prime minister to maintain peace</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistans-post-election-crisis-how-anti-army-vote-may-deliver-an-unstable-government-that-falls-into-the-militarys-hands-223287">Pakistan's post-election crisis – how anti-army vote may deliver an unstable government that falls into the military's hands</a>
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<p>Three weeks after a national election, the president is required by law to convene the national assembly. This means the parties have until Feb. 29 to unite into a coalition. </p>
<p>During that session, new legislators are sworn in. They file nomination papers for several important positions, such as leader of the house and speaker of the house. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/13/pakistan-election-can-imran-khans-winning-candidates-form-a-government#:%7E:text=What's%20needed%20for%20a%20government,independents%20who%20won%20their%20seats.">A simple majority of 134 members is needed to elect a new prime minister</a> in a parliamentary vote held once these slots are filled.</p>
<p>It’s now up to Pakistan’s major political players to figure out who’s going to lead the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222951/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noor Mirza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With a hung parliament and uncertain election results, further political instability and a scramble to attain power is in full force in Pakistan.Noor Mirza, Researcher, Balsillie School of International AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230302024-02-12T15:58:31Z2024-02-12T15:58:31ZPakistan election results in political instability when the country needed it least<p>Shock results in Pakistan’s national election threaten to see the country free-fall into political crisis. Days after the election, it remains unclear which party (or parties) will form a government and who the next prime minister will be.</p>
<p>Independent candidates affiliated to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Pakistan Movement for Justice/PTI), the party of former prime minister, Imran Khan, won 95 of 264 seats. This puts it in the lead, ahead of Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) in second place. However, with 75 seats, PML-N is the largest single party in the national assembly.</p>
<p>It’s fair to say Pakistan doesn’t have a brilliant track record when it comes to putting democracy into action. No elected prime minister has <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/9/factbox-no-pakistani-prime-minister-has-completed-a-full-tenure">completed</a> a full term in office. The country has been under military rule for nearly as much time as it has been under a civilian government. And the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-a-historical-trail-of-pakistans-powerful-military-enterprise-205749">military</a> has long directed the country’s politics from behind the scenes. </p>
<p>Allegations that the election was likely to be <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/12/election-engineering-is-pakistans-february-vote-already-rigged">rigged</a> were rife months before voters headed to the polls on February 8. Khan, who remains widely popular, was <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20231231-imprisoned-former-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-barred-from-election-candidacy">barred from running</a> in the election and is currently in prison having been sentenced on three separate occasions in recent weeks. Many candidates for his party were imprisoned or otherwise <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/07/harassed-constantly-imran-khans-party-fights-state-pressure-in-pakistan-election#:%7E:text=Dozens%20of%20senior%20PTI%20leaders,posters%20are%20systematically%20torn%20down.">harassed</a> and hounded out of politics. </p>
<p>The Election Commission of Pakistan also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistans-imran-khans-party-loses-cricket-bat-electoral-symbol-2024-01-14/">banned</a> PTI candidates from using the electoral symbol of a cricket bat. They had to stand as independents with individual symbols, a sure impediment in a country of large rural constituencies where high numbers of voters <a href="https://mofept.gov.pk/ProjectDetail/NjQ4ZTg2NjItOWM2NC00Y2IxLTkzMDgtMjU2OTFhMjA4NzNh#:%7E:text=The%20current%20literacy%20rate%20of,is%20illiterate%20in%20the%20country.">cannot read</a>.</p>
<p>As voting got underway, the interior ministry <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68226228">suspended</a> mobile calls and data services – a move it said was essential to “maintain law and order” after a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68226516">string of terrorist attacks</a> in the days leading up to the election. The internet blackout meant it was not possible for many urban voters to book taxis to go and cast their vote or coordinate plans with other family members. Violence on election day itself left <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-vote-counts-drags-after-election-marred-by-attacks-outages-2024-02-09/">28 people dead</a>.</p>
<h2>Close contest</h2>
<p>Once the results started trickling in, independent candidates aligned to PTI were out ahead. There were then significant delays in the processing and announcing of further results, leading to fears that the outcome would be <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelKugelman/status/1755704058155765903">manipulated by the military</a> who PTI supporters feared were intent on suppressing Khan’s party. </p>
<p>Despite the military’s interference, the elections have resulted in political uncertainty. Behind the scenes, Sharif and his PML-N is negotiating power-sharing with Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan People Party (PPP). He is also hoping to co-opt some of Khan’s PTI-backed candidates, and is showing some <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/2456138/pti-backed-independent-defects-to-pml-n">success</a>.</p>
<p>If he manages to put together a coalition, Sharif will come to power with much baggage. He was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/28/pakistani-court-disqualifies-pm-nawaz-sharif-from-office">dismissed as prime minister</a> in 2017 over corruption allegations – and accusations of nepotism have, in the past, landed both he and his daughter Maryam in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/06/former-pakistani-leader-nawaz-sharif-sentenced-to-10-years-in-jail">prison</a>. </p>
<p>The army, who many believe selected Sharif as their man, seem to have weighed the baggage and decided to hedge their bet – a wager they may be coming to regret. The Pakistan military is often referred to as the army that has never won a war and never lost an election: 2024 may have disrupted that.</p>
<h2>Stability is unlikely</h2>
<p>Pakistan has precedence for not honouring the will of the electorate. In December 1970, at the country’s first direct national election, the Awami League won 167 out of 169 seats in East Pakistan, while The PPP won 87 out of 138 seats in West Pakistan. These results meant the Awami League had won an outright majority to govern the whole of Pakistan. </p>
<p>However, the national assembly was postponed, leading to protests, a civil war and eventually to a national split and the end of the bifurcated era. East Pakistan became Bangladesh and West Pakistan simply became Pakistan. </p>
<p>Over half a century later, it is unlikely that Khan will stay quiet if his party is denied power. He enjoys, for now, the enduring popular support of Pakistan’s 128 million voters. And Khan has managed to shift the zeitgeist, leading to the unprecedented open criticism of Pakistan’s all-powerful military. </p>
<p>But the country’s political uncertainty comes at a time of severe economic crisis. Strong and stable leadership is required to steer Pakistan’s struggling economy. </p>
<h2>Pakistan’s economy is in crisis</h2>
<p>Figures released by Pakistan’s <a href="https://www.pbs.gov.pk/">Bureau of Statistics</a> in January 2024 revealed that inflation was nearly 30% higher than at the same point the previous year. The <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1797445">cost of essentials</a> such as wheat, sugar and vegetables are now unaffordable for many ordinary people whose wages are being stretched to breaking point. </p>
<p>The number of people living in poverty in Pakistan has climbed to <a href="https://pakistanaffairs.pk/2023/10/03/the-world-bank-estimates-that-the-poverty-rate-in-pakistan-will-reach-39-4-in-fy23/">nearly 40%</a>. And price hikes for electricity and fuel in September 2023 led to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/sep/05/pakistan-uproar-violent-protests-soaring-fuel-electricity-prices">protests</a>, with thousands taking to the streets and burning their electricity bills. </p>
<p>On top of this, Pakistan will have to repay its <a href="https://indiafirstepaper.com/2023/04/07/pakistan-must-repay-external-debt-of-us77-5-billion-within-3-years/">substantial external debt</a> – US$77.5 billion (£61.4 billion) over the next three years, with a currency that is depleted of value. In August 2023, Pakistan’s rupee fell to a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-22/pakistan-rupee-slumps-to-record-low-amid-growing-headwinds">record low</a> of 299 to the dollar.</p>
<p>With increased economic hardship and little opportunity at home, many Pakistanis are making perilous journeys out of Pakistan. Young people especially are being driven to find a better life elsewhere, sometimes with deadly consequences. In June 2023, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/18/pakistanis-were-forced-below-deck-on-refugee-boat-in-greece-disaster">more than 300</a> Pakistani migrants died when an overcrowded fishing vessel sank off the coast of Greece.</p>
<p>Pakistan’s new leader will need new ideas on how to get their country out of economic trouble and improve the lives of his countrymen. Whoever it may be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223030/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Parveen Akhtar has previously received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council and the British Academy.</span></em></p>Days after the election, it remains unclear who the the next prime minister will be.Parveen Akhtar, Senior Lecturer: Politics, History and International Relations, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2232872024-02-11T23:38:54Z2024-02-11T23:38:54ZPakistan’s post-election crisis – how anti-army vote may deliver an unstable government that falls into the military’s hands<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574783/original/file-20240211-22-hgfmzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C567%2C5459%2C3083&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Like at this pro-PTI protest, the smoke has yet to clear following Pakistan's election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-khans-pakistan-tehreek-e-insaf-party-run-from-news-photo/1995105733?adppopup=true">M Asim Khan/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68226228">Pakistan’s heavily anticipated general election</a> took place on Feb. 8, 2024, with citizens of the South Asian country hoping that it might prove a step toward ending the nation’s political uncertainty.</em></p>
<p><em>But several days later, it remains unclear what the result of the vote will yield. Both of the leading contenders <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/10/pakistans-khan-sharif-claim-election-win-despite-no-clear-majority">have claimed victory</a>, amid allegations of <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/be2925f4-8cb6-41fc-ae07-b00a6493014d">vote rigging and disputed ballots</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation spoke with <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/faculty/ayesha-jalal">Ayesha Jalal, an expert on Pakistan’s political history</a> who teaches at Tufts University, about what the results of the election mean and what could happen next.</em></p>
<h2>Is it clear who will govern Pakistan next?</h2>
<p>The results as they stand mean that no party is in a position to form a government on its own. So a coalition government at the federal level is unavoidable.</p>
<p>And this is where things get tricky. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI – headed by <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-19844270">jailed former prime minister and Pakistani cricket hero Imran Khan</a> – has emerged as the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/10/what-comes-next-2">largest party in the national assembly</a>, with around 93 candidates winning seats as “independents.” They had to run as independents because the party was <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-s-pti-barred-from-using-cricket-bat-electoral-symbol-/7439552.html">barred from using its electoral symbol</a>, a cricket bat, after a three-member bench of the supreme court ruled that PTI had failed to hold intraparty elections in line with its constitution.</p>
<p>But with a total of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-vote-counts-drags-after-election-marred-by-attacks-outages-2024-02-09/">265 seats in parliament</a>, that means the PTI is still well short of the number needed to form a government on its own.</p>
<p>The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PMLN, came in second with 78 seats, a tally that is likely to be boosted by the addition of PMLN-aligned independent members of parliament. The party – headed by Shahbaz Sharif, who took over from Khan as prime minister in 2022, and his brother, former three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif – is thought to have the <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/pakistan-army-chief-backs-ex-pm-nawaz-sharifs-call-to-form-coalition-government/articleshow/107587628.cms?from=mdr">backing of the powerful Pakistani army</a>, but it did not perform as well as expected in the election.</p>
<p>The Pakistan People’s Party, or PPP, secured 54 seats, placing it third. This puts it in a position to help another party form a coalition at the federal level.</p>
<h2>With the most seats, is the PTI the front-runner to lead a coalition?</h2>
<p>The PTI has made it clear that it wants to form a government on its own and believes that its mandate was stolen. </p>
<p>Even before the final election results became known, the <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/imran-khans-party-claims-victory-in-170-seats-vows-to-form-government-report-5032101">PTI claimed it had won 170 or so seats</a> – enough for it to be able to form a government. But that appears to be without evidence.</p>
<p>This suggests the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/2/11/pakistan-election-results-live-wait-for-final-tally-three-days-after-vote">PTI isn’t ready to accept</a> that it did not get enough votes to form a government outright. The party instead is challenging the results, claiming that its vote was suppressed illegally, and the PTI has already formally registered complaints in 18 constituencies. </p>
<p>I believe it is more likely that a coalition will emerge between the other parties, led by the PMLN. But the question is whether that will satisfy an electorate that voted the PTI as the largest party in parliament.</p>
<h2>That doesn’t sound very stable. Is it?</h2>
<p>It isn’t. Pakistan is now entering an uncertain scenario, which is, in effect, a post-election political crisis.</p>
<p>Coalitions are not uncommon in Pakistan’s politics, but they are not easy to manage. They can <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/08/pakistans-new-government-struggles-consolidate-control">become unwieldy</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/AtlanticCouncil/status/1756069234101133713">weak</a> and <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/10/military-disrupts-pakistan-s-democracy-once-again-pub-89724">prone to manipulation</a>.</p>
<p>It also makes it far harder for any government to push through the kind of bold economic packages needed for the country to move forward and escape the deep structural problems that are ailing the economy, such as a <a href="https://www.theigc.org/blogs/taxing-effectively/why-does-pakistan-tax-so-little">limited tax base</a> and reliance on handouts from other countries. Tackling that requires hard, potentially unpopular decisions, which are more difficult when a government is split and has a limited popular mandate.</p>
<p>The country may need another national vote before too long to secure a more stable and workable government.</p>
<h2>The election has been called flawed in the West. Is that fair?</h2>
<p>By Pakistan’s standards, the actual polling went off relatively peacefully. There was a terrible attack in the <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240118-baluchistan-explosive-region-on-iran-pakistan-borderland">restive province of Baluchistan</a> on the eve of the election that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68226516">killed 28 people</a>. But fears of widespread violence on the day of the election did not materialize.</p>
<p>And while there were undue <a href="https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-election-human-rights-commission-khan-3258e2131ac83e89c2c376b476caccec">curbs on political activity</a> in the <a href="https://www.apstylebook.com/search?query=runup&button=">run-up</a> to the elections, the election itself appears to be largely credible by Pakistani standards, as the country’s foreign ministry has been <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-02-10/pakistan-hits-back-at-criticism-of-election-conduct-and-insists-cellphone-curbs-were-necessary">quick to attest</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that the PTI, a party that is out of favor with Pakistan’s current senior military leadership, has done so well suggests there was no straightforward rigging across the board. There was harassment of PTI voters in some places, but it clearly wasn’t sufficient to make huge inroads into their overall vote.</p>
<p>One can’t compare Pakistan’s democracy with that of the U.S. or any other country. The problem with many outside observers of Pakistan’s politics is that they talk normatively – that is, they see Pakistan’s elections through the eyes of what is generally seen as the norm elsewhere.</p>
<p>But Pakistani politics are unique. The country is a military-dominated state, with generals that have long been involved in the country’s politics – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/world/asia/pakistan-election-imran-khan.html">and elections</a>.</p>
<p>But the alternative to managed elections, no matter how messy, is martial law. And a flawed democracy is better than the military jackboot.</p>
<p>More than that, the election itself took place relatively peacefully. There has been a great deal of criticism in the West about <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/8/inherently-undemocratic-pakistan-suspends-mobile-services-on-voting-day">cellphones and mobile internet services being blocked</a> on election day. That may seem like unacceptable interference in the electoral process to outside observers. But in Pakistan, there was <a href="https://france24.com/en/20121123-pakistan-suspends-mobile-phone-service-security-ashura-shiite-terrorism">real concern about cellphones</a> being used to detonate explosive devices.</p>
<h2>Will anyone be pleased with the election result?</h2>
<p>Ironically, while the PTI’s strong showing represents an anti-establishment vote – and, more specifically, an anti-army vote – the divided national mandate means the army high command has reason to be satisfied with the outcome.</p>
<p>A split national assembly and weak government plays into the military’s hands. Should the PMLN govern as the major party in a coalition, it will be in a position of relative weakness and will need the army’s support, especially if the PTI engages in widespread protests against the election results. </p>
<h2>Are there any positives from the election?</h2>
<p>Yes, insofar as the process of seeking the peoples’ support has been allowed to continue. But the negatives are seen by most to outweigh the positives and the 2024 elections are being viewed as equally – if not more – manipulated and controlled than the 2018 exercise. </p>
<p>The turnout this time around is <a href="https://www.nation.com.pk/10-Feb-2024/voters-turnout-remain-48-percent-in-election-fafen-report">estimated to be around 48%</a>, which is lower than in 2018 when it was 51%. The demographic breakdown is encouraging. The youth played a crucial role; 44% of voters were under the age of 35. And women, too, played a larger role in the vote – more women contested and also won seats.</p>
<p>And party politics aside, the result suggests that old tactics to intimidate and suppress voters largely didn’t work. The expectation was that the spate of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/main-criminal-cases-against-pakistans-imran-khan-2024-01-31/">legal verdicts against Khan</a> just weeks before the election and his continued imprisonment might curb his popularity and mean PTI supporters would stay home. That clearly didn’t happen.</p>
<p>But what they helped deliver may only help continue Pakistan’s political malaise as it heads into a new, uncertain period.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ayesha Jalal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The PTI, the party of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan, won the most seats of any one party – but fell short of reaching the threshold for a majority government.Ayesha Jalal, Professor of History, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221472024-02-07T00:33:45Z2024-02-07T00:33:45ZWith Pakistan’s most popular politician in jail and cynicism running high, can a new leader unite the country?<p>Pakistanis headed to the polls on Thursday to elect a new parliament and prime minister at a time of renewed political turbulence in the country.</p>
<p>The country’s popular former leader, Imran Khan, has been <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/03/asia/imran-khan-convicted-fraudulent-marriage-pakistan-intl/index.html#:%7E:text=Jailed%20Pakistani%20former%20Prime%20Minister%20Imran%20Khan%20and%20his%20wife,2018%20marriage%20violated%20the%20law.">sentenced</a> three separate times in recent weeks to lengthy jail terms. The timing before this week’s election is intended to send a message: the military wants him out of politics using a judicial pathway. </p>
<p>The military, which has directly and indirectly controlled Pakistan’s politics for seven decades, appears determined to reopen the political space for two other parties in the lead-up to the vote. </p>
<p>These are the <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/pakistans-comeback-king-nawaz-sharif-seeks-fourth-term-as-pm/articleshow/107418610.cms?from=mdr">Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz</a> (PML-N) party, led by three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, and the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/bilawal-bhutto-launches-pakistan-peoples-party-electoral-rally-in-karachi-ahead-of-general-elections20240206045549/">Pakistan People’s Party</a>, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of former president Asif Ali Zardari and assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.</p>
<p>So, with Khan in prison and barred from running, which party is likely to win the election and what challenges lie ahead for the new government?</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistan-election-the-military-has-long-meddled-in-the-countrys-politics-this-year-will-be-no-different-222443">Pakistan election: the military has long meddled in the country's politics – this year will be no different</a>
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<h2>Khan’s downfall</h2>
<p>Khan, a former cricket star, led the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/26/imran-khan-claims-victory-in-pakistan-elections">victory</a> in the 2018 elections. But he lost the support of the military and was ousted in April 2022 through a no confidence vote in the National Assembly.</p>
<p>Since then, his party, PTI, has remained immensely popular. It <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/17/former-pm-imran-khan-dominates-pakistan-by-elections">dominated</a> byelections in late 2022 to fill seats in the National Assembly that had been left vacant when PTI lawmakers resigned en masse to protest his ouster.</p>
<p>Last year, Khan was barred from politics for five years after being convicted on corruption charges. He maintains the charges were politically motivated. Then came the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/03/asia/imran-khan-convicted-fraudulent-marriage-pakistan-intl/index.html#:%7E:text=Jailed%20Pakistani%20former%20Prime%20Minister%20Imran%20Khan%20and%20his%20wife,2018%20marriage%20violated%20the%20law.">sentences</a> handed down this year (it’s unclear if they will be served concurrently):</p>
<ul>
<li><p>ten years in prison for breaching the Official Secrets Act</p></li>
<li><p>14 years in prison for failing to disclose gifts received from foreign leaders, selling them and then not disclosing the amounts earned</p></li>
<li><p>seven years in prison for being in an un-Islamic marriage.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>With Khan barred from standing for office and no support from the military, PTI seems very unlikely to secure enough seats to return to power.</p>
<p>The electoral commission made things even more difficult by <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-s-pti-barred-from-using-cricket-bat-electoral-symbol-/7439552.html">blocking</a> the party’s use of the cricket bat symbol to identify its candidates. In a country with low levels of literacy, many people <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1806320/why-electoral-symbols-are-important-for-political-parties">rely on these symbols</a> when they cast their ballots. </p>
<p>The commission has instead allocated individual symbols to PTI’s candidates. This will create confusion among PTI’s supporters, who will need to know which symbols have been given to which candidates in their specific electorates. </p>
<p>Given the support among the youth for Khan and the PTI leadership urging its supporters to vote in the elections, the party’s candidates may still secure seats in the national and provincial assemblies. Their chances of forming a government, though, are virtually nil.</p>
<h2>The return of an exiled former leader</h2>
<p>Sharif, now 74 years old, is considered the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/05/pakistan-election-nawaz-sharif">frontrunner</a> to be prime minister again – for a fourth time.</p>
<p>Sharif owes his initial entry into politics to the military regime led by General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq in the 1980s. His relationship with the military since the 1990s, however, has vacillated between being cordial and antagonistic. </p>
<p>In fact, Sharif blamed former military and spy chiefs for <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/from-london-pakistans-former-prime-minister-nawaz-sharif-blames-ex-army-chief-for-his-2017-ouster/articleshow/103782275.cms?from=mdr">orchestrating</a> his ouster from power in 2017 when he was convicted of corruption. He was subsequently disqualified for life from participating in Pakistan’s politics. </p>
<p>Now he has <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-s-former-pm-cleared-of-all-graft-charges-/7395239.html">returned</a> from self-imposed exile to stage another political comeback. With his relationship with the military back in a “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistans-three-time-premier-nawaz-sharif-expected-home-exile-2023-10-21/">cordial</a>” phase, the courts immediately overturned his corruption convictions when he returned to Pakistan late last year, paving his way to run in the election. </p>
<p>Sharif has since introduced the slogan “<em><a href="https://www.geo.tv/latest/528679-pakistan-ko-nawaz-do-pml-n-unveils-much-awaited-election-manifesto">Pakistan ko Nawaz do</a></em>”, with the dual meaning of “Give Nawaz to Pakistan” and “Be Generous to Pakistan”. </p>
<p>Bhutto, just 35 years old, hails from a political dynasty, which has laid the groundwork for his rise to power. As the foreign minister in the coalition government that ousted Khan, he has made his mark and is presenting himself as a symbol of new thinking (<em>nai soch</em>) in Pakistan. </p>
<p>Both candidates have been holding rallies across the country, but it remains unclear if either will be able to win a national election. PML-N is strong in Punjab in the east and PPP’s support comes mostly in Sindh in the far south-east.</p>
<p>As such, Pakistan appears to be heading for a coalition government, which will have to address several challenges facing the country. </p>
<h2>A struggling economy and spiralling inflation</h2>
<p>The most pressing issue for the new government will be to prevent further economic decline and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2024/country-chapters/pakistan">improve the living conditions of ordinary citizens</a>. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s GDP growth rate has fallen from <a href="https://www.adb.org/where-we-work/pakistan/economy">5.8% in 2021 to about 0.3% in 2023</a>. At the same time, inflation has spiked against the backdrop of devastating floods in 2022, the rise in oil prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the demands of the International Monetary Fund for more sensible economic planning and the removal of unrealistic subsidies. Rates increased from <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-rampant-inflation-piles-on-the-pressure/a-59823980">8.9% in 2021</a> to a <a href="https://www.brecorder.com/news/40281508/pakistans-headline-inflation-reading-clocks-in-at-297-in-december">whopping 29.7%</a> in December 2023. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the rate of people living in poverty in Pakistan has climbed <a href="https://pakistanaffairs.pk/2023/10/03/the-world-bank-estimates-that-the-poverty-rate-in-pakistan-will-reach-39-4-in-fy23/">to nearly 40%</a>, more than five percentage points higher than fiscal year 2022. </p>
<p>The new government will also need to revisit Pakistan’s foreign policy. Khan’s allegations of <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/27/asia/pakistan-imran-khan-us-conspiracy-intl-hnk/index.html">US meddling in Pakistan’s politics</a> soured the country’s relations with Washington, while his less-than-enthusiastic approach to Chinese investment projects <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/china-was-uncomfortable-with-pakistan-under-imran-khan-reports/articleshow/93251831.cms?from=mdr">strained relations</a> with Beijing. </p>
<p>Even the Gulf states that traditionally had good relations with Pakistan began to recalibrate their south Asian strategies, with a clear tilt towards India. </p>
<p>The new government will also have to devise a new approach to Afghanistan. Despite the euphoria shared by some, particularly Khan, upon the return of the Taliban to government, Islamabad’s relations with Kabul have been affected by the new regime’s reluctance to address the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/21/what-explains-the-dramatic-rise-in-armed-attacks-in-pakistan">rise in attacks</a> by the Pakistani Taliban (often referred to as Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan, or TTP) and other groups. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-terrorism-returning-to-pakistan-198995">Is terrorism returning to Pakistan?</a>
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<p>But the most significant challenge for the new government will be the growing cynicism among Pakistanis around the legitimacy of the electoral process. </p>
<p>Khan’s downfall has drawn attention to the military’s ever-present need to control the government. And this has led to ordinary citizens openly criticising the military, a phenomenon unheard of before. A small minority of people in private gatherings are even questioning the legitimacy of the idea of Pakistan. </p>
<p>The new government will need to work hard to cement its legitimacy in such circumstances. Failing to do that would plunge Pakistan into yet another round of instability.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222147/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samina Yasmeen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the military back on his side and his convictions quashed, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif could return to power in this week’s election.Samina Yasmeen, Director of Centre for Muslim States and Societies, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2224432024-02-05T15:15:01Z2024-02-05T15:15:01ZPakistan election: the military has long meddled in the country’s politics – this year will be no different<p>Pakistan’s former prime minister, Imran Khan, has been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68192196">sentenced</a> to seven years in prison after a Pakistani court ruled his marriage un-Islamic and illegal. Khan had already been sentenced to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/31/imran-khan-pakistan-former-pm-sentenced-prison-14-years-corruption-charges">14 years</a> in jail for corruption and barred from holding public office for ten years a week earlier and, a day before that, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/30/imran-khan-pm-sentenced-prison-pakistan">ten years</a> in prison for leaking official state secrets.</p>
<p>Khan claims that the cases against him are politically motivated. Since being <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-61055210">deposed</a> in 2022, Khan has taken aim at the country’s powerful military, which has a long history of interfering in politics. He has accused the army chief, the military establishment and the US government of conspiring against him. </p>
<p>Now he argues that military leadership have orchestrated his imprisonment so he cannot run in the upcoming general election on February 8. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1810143">Members</a> of Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party have also been imprisoned or pressured into leaving their positions, and workers have been prevented from holding political rallies in the run up to the election. </p>
<p>The relentless harassment and intimidation of the PTI and its supporters, and the favour shown to Nawaz Sharif of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) party, has led to a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/30/can-pakistans-politicians-break-the-militarys-stranglehold">muted election campaign</a>. Sharif has been prime minister three times, but was ousted in 2017.</p>
<p>Khan will appeal his convictions and is likely to get some relief from the courts. But one thing is clear: the military has no intention of allowing a free and fair election on February 8.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A child at a demonstration holding aloft a picture of Nawaz Sharif." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nawaz Sharif is expected to be all but escorted into an election win.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/karachi-pakistan-feb-22-pmln-holding-1031149930">Asianet-Pakistan/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Military dominance</h2>
<p>The military’s organisation, structures and practices were developed under the British (who ruled what is now Pakistan until independence in 1947). But its expansion into politics is <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/pakistan/pakistans-military-still-runs-show-imran-khan">rooted</a> in the persistent fear of war with India, its desire to control foreign policy, and its wish to protect its budgetary allocations and fiscal interests.</p>
<p>In 2022, military <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.ZS?locations=PK">expenditure</a> accounted for nearly 18% of government spending in Pakistan, making the military the best-resourced institution in the country. It is also a business conglomerate and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/may/31/books.pakistan">owns</a> millions of acres of public land. And it has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/jul/11/us-aid-to-pakistan">received</a> considerable military assistance as a frontline ally of the US during its engagements in Afghanistan.</p>
<p>The military has long looked to prevent the election of anyone who might try to influence policies that diverge from its entrenched interests. In 2017, Sharif, who was then prime minister, fell out of favour with the military following <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44239582">disagreements</a> about normalising relations with India. Sharif was <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2018/06/21/pakistans-army-is-using-every-trick-to-sideline-nawaz-sharif">arrested</a> on charges of corruption and sentenced to ten years in jail less than two weeks before the 2018 general election.</p>
<p>Khan won that election with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistan-elections-weak-government-will-allow-army-to-keep-pulling-the-strings-98503">backing of the military</a>. But, despite starting his time in office by being on <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/12/why-are-imran-khans-supporters-angry-with-pakistans-military">“one page”</a> with the military and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/ex-pakistan-pm-warns-of-deepening-crisis-as-fears-of-new-election-delay-grow">ceding</a> alarming amounts of political space to them, Khan’s relationship with the military soon turned sour. Tensions exploded when Khan tried to retain Lieutenant-General Faiz Hameed as the military spy chief, rejecting the nominee of army chief General Qamar Bajwa. </p>
<p>In April 2022, Khan was ousted from power in a vote of no-confidence. He accused the US of <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1682104">engineering</a> his removal and made <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/14/imran-khan-arrest-pakistan-military">numerous claims</a> that challenged the military directly. He alleged that the then army chief held a grudge against him, that the military had arrested and tried to assassinate him, and that the military was “above the law”. </p>
<p>Khan’s accusations culminated in his arrest on corruption charges on May 9 2023. His imprisonment has resulted in an <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-65711385">unprecedented</a> public backlash against the military. Khan’s supporters attacked state institutions and military installations, even breaching the army’s headquarters.</p>
<p>Hundreds of PTI supporters were arrested and the military <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/7/pakistan-military-says-will-punish-planners-of-may-9-violence">vowed</a> to “punish” them, handing many over to military courts in violation of international law. Three military officials were <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-66016331">sacked</a> for their role in the unrest. Since then, the military has by all <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/30/can-pakistans-politicians-break-the-militarys-stranglehold">accounts</a> tightened its grip over Pakistan’s politics, even <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/23/pakistans-army-chief-vows-to-keep-military-out-of-politics">publicly admitting</a> to meddling in politics.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protestors on a road kicking away tear gas shells fired by police." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Supporters of Imran Khan protesting in Lahore, Pakistan, against his arrest. May 10, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/supporters-pakistans-former-prime-minister-imran-2304142187">Murtaza.Ali/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Overdue polls</h2>
<p>Pakistan’s national elections were <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/2/pakistan-to-hold-delayed-elections-on-february-8-electoral-commission-says">supposed to be held</a> in November 2023. But they were delayed due to the need to redraw constituency boundaries following a census. Many are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66446957">sceptical</a> of this claim and have questioned the ability of Pakistan’s electoral commission to conduct fair polls.</p>
<p>The lead up to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/ex-pakistan-pm-warns-of-deepening-crisis-as-fears-of-new-election-delay-grow">delayed</a> polls has been marred by <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/01/asia/pakistan-election-candidate-killed-intl-hnk/index.html">violence</a>. And, though the polls are expected to go ahead, the electoral commission has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-election-panel-summons-meeting-rising-poll-violence-2024-02-01/">asked</a> for security support from the military.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the PTI has faced persistent harassment. Its website is <a href="https://www.brecorder.com/news/40285928/ptis-website-blocked-countrywide">blocked</a> in Pakistan and the party has faced legal setbacks such as <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/23/pakistan-ex-pms-party-loses-election-symbol-will-it-hurt-its-prospects">losing</a> its electoral symbol – the cricket bat – for not holding intra-party elections. The continuing harassment and intimidation of PTI supporters may also have a chilling effect on voters.</p>
<p>No election in Pakistan can be called free and fair for as long as the military establishment continues to play kingmaker. The election on February 8 is no different. </p>
<p>The military’s political engineering has ensured that it is impossible for there to be a level playing field for the parties on election day. It only remains to be seen if citizens will turn out to exercise their right to vote.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sameen Mohsin Ali does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pakistan’s citizens will vote in a lopsided poll on February 8.Sameen Mohsin Ali, Lecturer in International Development, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213952024-01-24T19:01:50Z2024-01-24T19:01:50ZAs Pakistani election looms, the military maintains its grip on the country’s politics<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/as-pakistani-election-looms-the-military-maintains-its-grip-on-the-countrys-politics" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In the lead-up to upcoming general elections in Pakistan, the country’s Human Rights Commission <a href="https://www.firstpost.com/world/pakistan-human-rights-body-concerned-over-lack-of-level-playing-field-in-february-8-polls-13567652.html">has voiced significant concerns</a> about “pre-poll rigging” and the “blatant manipulation” of the electoral process. </p>
<p>The Feb. 8 elections are apparently unlikely to be conducted in a fair and free manner. </p>
<p>Pakistan has a history of electoral engineering, with the military often <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-65630664">playing a pivotal role as a “kingmaker</a>.” This consistent military interference in Pakistani politics explains current fears about the integrity of the democratic process in the upcoming elections and beyond.</p>
<h2>The military’s hold</h2>
<p>For more than three decades in Pakistan’s 76-year history as an independent nation, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt1h64kvc">the powerful military establishment has wielded significant influence</a>.</p>
<p>Even during periods when the military was not officially in power, it’s been accused of extensive interference in political affairs. The military seized direct control of the country through <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistans-history-coups-assassinations-2022-11-03/">coups d'état</a> by Gen. Ayub Khan (1958-1969), Gen. Yahya Khan (1969-1971), Gen. Zia-ul-Haq (1977-1988) and Gen. Pervez Musharraf (1999-2008). </p>
<p>When the military isn’t directly governing, it exerts influence on the political landscape by engaging in political engineering, shaping the selection and rise to power of specific political parties. In his <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/23/pakistans-army-chief-vows-to-keep-military-out-of-politics">farewell address</a> in November 2022, the former army chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, openly acknowledged the military’s pivotal role in facilitating the ascent of former prime minister Imran Khan to power following the removal of Nawaz Sharif.</p>
<p>The military’s influence is at play in all facets of politics and security matters in Pakistan. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2023.103846">It actively restricts the powers of politicians</a>, preferring puppet-like figures who refrain from challenging its prevailing interests. </p>
<h2>Nawaz Sharif</h2>
<p>This pattern became evident in 2013 when Sharif won the election and subsequently <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/7/29/pakistans-democracy-reels-from-nawaz-sharifs-removal">fell out</a> of favour with the military. His attempt to pursue <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-ousted-pakistani-pm-nawaz-sharif-turned-against-the-powerful-military/a-42953631">foreign and security policies</a> independent of the army’s influence ultimately ended his years in office a few years later.</p>
<p>Sharif’s experiences illustrate the military’s firm grip on decision-making processes and its resistance to allowing politicians to shape policies that might deviate from its established interests.</p>
<p><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/why-pakistan-army-responsible-for-nawaz-sharifs-ouster-and-heres-what-may-happen/articleshow/59837753.cms">The military opposed</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/13/military-block-pakistan-india-trade-deal-sharif">Sharif’s efforts to build ties with India</a> due to its apparent need to maintain simmering tensions with New Delhi to hold onto its domestic dominance. Ongoing conflict with India serves as justification for the military’s indispensable role in the nation.</p>
<p>In 2014, Sharif extended a significant olive branch to India by accepting its invitation to <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/nawaz-sharif-arrives-in-india-for-modis-swearing-in-ceremony/article64223119.ece">attend the swearing-in</a> ceremony of the newly elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi. </p>
<p>Modi returned the favour in 2015 with a <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/pm-modi-lands-in-lahore-on-a-surprise-visit-meets-pak-pm-nawaz-sharif/">brief stopover</a> in Lahore, raising hopes for improved relations. However, this thaw was short-lived primarily due to the influence of the military.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/4/13/pakistani-court-bans-ex-pm-nawaz-sharif-from-parliament-for-life">In 2017, Sharif was removed</a> from office on corruption charges after serving three terms. The military <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/8/17/imran-khan-elected-as-pakistans-prime-minister">then supported</a> Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party during the 2018 elections. </p>
<h2>Imran Khan</h2>
<p>This support proved instrumental in propelling Khan to victory. The formidable military and the Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) meticulously crafted Khan’s <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/article/62201/sadiq-and-ameen-imran-khan-is-the-cleanest-politician-in-pakistan-and-an-evident-choice-for-the-2018-election">public image</a> as an upright individual untainted by financial scandals while concurrently portraying his opponents as corrupt politicians. </p>
<p>This deliberate effort instilled hope among the people for a transformative change in the country.</p>
<p>But soon after Khan’s ascension to power, he and the military began to butt heads, in part due to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2023/may/10/imran-khan-pakistan-arrest-army">differences</a> over the selection of the head of the ISI.</p>
<p>Tensions escalated, ultimately resulting in Khan’s <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/9/analysis-end-of-imran-khans-term">orchestrated removal</a> from office on a vote of non-confidence in April 2022.</p>
<p>In the aftermath of his ouster, Khan openly <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/19/how-imran-khan-removal-civil-military-ties-pakistan">criticized the military</a>. In response, the army took a series of measures to disqualify him from running in the upcoming elections. Khan was arrested on multiple corruption charges and has vehemently denied any wrongdoing. </p>
<p>In a sweeping crackdown, members of his PTI party <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/24/ex-pm-imran-khans-pti-hit-by-more-resignations-in-pakistan">were coerced to defect and join opposition parties</a>. </p>
<p>Khan and his party’s candidates continue to encounter obstacles, including <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/30/pakistan-poll-body-rejects-ex-pm-imran-khans-nomination-for-2024-elections">being denied nominations</a> to run in the election and <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/internet-disrupted-in-pakistan-as-khan-s-party-launches-virtual-election-campaign/7430174.html">being blocked</a> from holding online rallies and fundraisers.</p>
<p>The PTI <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-pti-supporters-decry-pre-election-crackdown/a-67999734">alleges</a> the military is actively working to exclude it from the electoral race, underscoring the profound challenges to uphold democracy and political diversity in Pakistan.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/imran-khans-arrest-what-it-means-for-the-former-prime-minister-and-pakistans-upcoming-election-205340">Imran Khan's arrest: What it means for the former prime minister and Pakistan's upcoming election</a>
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<p>In a significant turn of events, the military has cleared the path for the ousted Sharif to contest the upcoming election by quashing all <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-court-overturns-ex-pm-nawaz-sharifs-graft-conviction-lawyer-2023-11-29/">legal cases</a> against him, positioning him as the favoured candidate against Khan. </p>
<p>The prime objectives are apparently to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67167601.amp">sideline Khan</a> and to ensure Sharif will refrain from challenging military interests in the future.</p>
<h2>Escalating regional tensions</h2>
<p>Pakistan is currently facing <a href="https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2024/01/06/military-influence-and-political-peril-in-pakistan/">significant security and economic challenges</a>. Iran <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/17/iran-says-attack-in-pakistan-targeted-iranian-terrorist-group">recently launched</a> missile and drone attacks on the Pakistani-Iranian border to target terrorist group Jaish-Al-Adl, which the Iranians claim is responsible for terrorist attacks in their country.</p>
<p>Pakistan <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/17/a-recap-of-violence-pak-iran-border">condemned the attack</a> as a violation of its sovereignty but <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68014882">soon retaliated</a> with its own military strikes in Iran as tensions escalate between the two countries.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/western-strikes-against-houthis-risk-igniting-a-powderkeg-in-the-middle-east-221392">Western strikes against Houthis risk igniting a powderkeg in the Middle East</a>
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<p>Pakistan is also facing terrorist attacks from Afghanistan, where the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) aims to establish Taliban rule in Pakistan. </p>
<p>Last year, nearly 1,000 Pakistanis <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/report-terrorist-attacks-kill-nearly-1-000-pakistanis-in-2023-/7419344.html">were killed</a> in terrorist attacks, prompting the government <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/news/unhcr-concerned-adverse-effects-pakistan-orders-undocumented-foreigners-leave">to undertake a sweeping expulsion of Afghan refugees categorized as undocumented</a>.</p>
<p>Inflation has also soared to approximately <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/8/how-skyrocketing-inflation-has-hit-pakistan-most-vulnerable">30 per cent in Pakistan</a>, exacerbating <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67494013">economic challenges</a> that include frequent power shortages and diminishing exports, remittances and foreign direct investment. </p>
<p>Pakistan is the world’s <a href="https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/pakistan-surpasses-brazil-to-become-worlds-5th-most-populous-country-1.72557051">fifth most populous country</a> and a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-agonizing-problem-of-pakistans-nukes/">nuclear-armed nation</a> grappling with economic challenges and political instability. </p>
<p>Sustained political stability in Pakistan is imperative, and yet remains elusive until the military restrains itself within its constitutional role and refrains from unwarranted interference in politics. The military’s increasing power has seemingly taken precedence over the needs of the Pakistani people. </p>
<p>As the Feb. 8 elections loom, reining in the military is crucial for fostering a political environment that prioritizes stability and democratic principles in South Asia, as well as the overall well-being of Pakistanis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221395/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Saira Bano does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sustained political stability in Pakistan is imperative but remains elusive until the military restrains itself within its constitutional role and refrains from unwarranted interference in politics.Saira Bano, Assistant Professor in Political Science, Thompson Rivers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112402023-08-16T11:15:32Z2023-08-16T11:15:32ZDespite domestic political turmoil, Pakistan is well placed to boost regional integration<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542129/original/file-20230810-23-200ert.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C17%2C2358%2C1587&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Karachi could channel exports from central Asia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/karachi-pakistan-jan-02-large-numbers-1885815538">Asianet-Pakistan/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pakistan is showing clear signs of economic and political crisis. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/2/pakistan-inflation-hits-record-for-second-consecutive-month">Inflation was recently</a> almost 38%, and the country faces a debt crunch as it tries to manage its trade deficit with the rest of the world. <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/28/pakistan-imf-deal-economy-crisis-inflation-austerity/">Talks with the IMF</a> over emergency loans have dragged on for months. </p>
<p>On the political side, elections are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66446957">being delayed</a> in the aftermath of the <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/imran-khan-former-pakistani-prime-minister-detained-12876959">controversial arrest</a> of former prime minister Imran Khan, which led to widespread protests. </p>
<p>Some of these events coincided with <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1751679/south-central-asia-need-to-enhance-socioeconomic-ties">a conference</a> I attended recently in Pakistan, where there was actually much positive discussion of the country’s economic potential – particularly with regards to improved relations with central Asia. </p>
<p>Several countries in central Asia (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan) can provide what <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09584935.2020.1855112">Pakistan needs</a> – wheat, gas and oil – to help it cope with rampant food and energy price rises. </p>
<p>In return, Pakistan has what central Asia needs – the ability to transport central Asian goods south to large ports in Gwadar and Karachi, potentially transforming the region into one which is “land-linked” as opposed to land-locked.</p>
<p>But the state of Pakistan’s relationship with central Asia is complicated. The vast expanse of the Himalayas which separates them is not just a massive physical obstacle – it is also a metaphor for the many centuries of economic, political and <a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S2377740019500179">cultural estrangement</a> between the two regions. And central Asia can seem disinclined to look southwards in its international ambitions.</p>
<p>In foreign policy, the gaze of central Asia is now resolutely north towards Russia. Earlier this year, all five presidents of central Asia <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89741">visited Moscow</a> for the annual Victory Day holiday where they applauded Putin’s speech. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, in economics, central Asia looks resolutely east towards China. In <a href="https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2023/02/20/chinas-2023-trade-and-investment-with-kazakhstan-development-trends/#:%7E:text=China's%20exports%20to%20Kazakhstan%20reached,staggering%20US%24%2431.2%20billion.">2022, Kazakhstan exported</a> US$13.2 billion (£10.3 billion) of goods and services to China. Two years earlier, by comparison, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/kazakhstan/exports/pakistan">it exported</a> less than US$20 million to Pakistan. </p>
<p>Yet there are signs of improvement. In 2021 Pakistan and Uzbekistan, together with Afghanistan, signed off on a US$5 billion project to build a <a href="https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2021/03/05/pakistan-afghanistan-uzbekistan-agree-573km-connecting-railway/">573km railway line</a> connecting their three capital cities, which still <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1765398">looks promising</a>. The <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/revival-of-tapi-pipeline-project-brings-serious-geopolitical-implications-for-russia/">Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline</a> has been under construction since 2015.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, China is pouring more than US$60 billion into a network of road, rail, energy, energy pipelines and fibre optics to link it with Pakistan. And while the “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/dragon-from-the-mountains/90AB5FED65A409F5ACCAB5BC92C68555">China Pakistan Economic Corridor</a>” is expected to have <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09584935.2020.1855112">positive implications</a> for trade, investment and technology transfer between the two countries, it is also likely to generate major benefits for the wider region, improving transport links between southern and central Asia. </p>
<h2>A second Singapore?</h2>
<p>With political and bureaucratic will, this could inspire a far better connection between Pakistan and central Asia, where Pakistan could seek to emulate the role that Singapore took on in the 1960s and 1970s. Acting as a link between east and west, Singapore <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/from-third-world-to-first-lee-kuan-yew?variant=32118179135522">helped to drive globalisation</a> as well as its own soaring economic growth. </p>
<p>At the time, Singapore was perfectly placed to connect cheap labour in the east with investment and technology from the west. But it was not a wholly smooth transition. </p>
<p>For while Pakistan today faces the threat of Islamic extremism, in the 1960s <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Singapore/History">Singapore faced</a> a local communist insurgency, and bombings were a regular part of a four-year long Indonesian state-backed campaign. Yet Singapore does show that such threats can be overcome. </p>
<p>The key will be gaining sufficient political stability to encourage investors that Pakistan is a good bet, something achieved by the “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/opinion/international-world/singapore-autocracy-democracy.html%5D">benevolent autocracy</a>” of Lee Kuan Yew, under which Singaporeans arguably traded off certain social and political freedoms for stability and prosperity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Singapore skyline." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542290/original/file-20230811-15-9migfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542290/original/file-20230811-15-9migfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542290/original/file-20230811-15-9migfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542290/original/file-20230811-15-9migfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542290/original/file-20230811-15-9migfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542290/original/file-20230811-15-9migfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542290/original/file-20230811-15-9migfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Singapore reaped economic benefits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/singapore-skyline-marina-during-twilight-313516310">Sean Pavone/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Today, Pakistan sits aside many of the principal crossroads of the global economy. It has long been a close partner of China, and has has unparalleled diplomatic and cultural reach into Afghanistan and the Middle East. It is already deeply embedded in the west through a well-established diaspora. </p>
<p>But we shouldn’t forget the elephant in the room when it comes to any discussion about regional connectivity – and that is India. Any historic or cultural connections Pakistan has with central Asia are dwarfed by those it retains with its next door neighbour.</p>
<p>The national languages of India (English and Hindi) are completely comprehensible to Pakistan (English and Urdu). The two countries share traditions in English law and parliamentary political systems, and both speak the cultural languages of cricket and Bollywood films. </p>
<p>Reconnecting India and Pakistan does not require new infrastructure – the roads and routes are already there; they just aren’t being used to their full potential. In fact, the <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/9f3f97ac-4007-5b30-9b2d-f1d1070c16b7/content">World Bank</a> estimates that untapped trade between India and Pakistan in 2015 was US$35 billion (compared to just over US$2 billion of existing annual trade). </p>
<p>Peace and openness with India would not just complete the reconnection of South Asia, but also offer Pakistan the chance to become a genuine regional hub – a Singapore for the 21st century. And if freedom to trade could take any of the nuclear heat out of Pakistan-India relations – what former US president Bill Clinton called “<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/687021.stm">the most dangerous place on earth</a>” – then regional endeavours would have globally transformational benefits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211240/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew McCartney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Could Pakistan become a Singapore of the 21st century?Matthew McCartney, Senior Researcher, Charter Cities Institute; Research Associate, SOAS, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2053402023-05-10T12:28:56Z2023-05-10T12:28:56ZImran Khan’s arrest: What it means for the former prime minister and Pakistan’s upcoming election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525247/original/file-20230509-20-ei9y1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C0%2C5526%2C3700&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of Imran Khan protest the former prime minister's arrest.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-former-prime-minister-imran-khan-and-news-photo/1253313821?adppopup=true">Sabir Mazhar/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Former Pakistani prime minister <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65531648">Imran Khan was arrested</a> amid chaotic scenes on May 9, 2023, while appearing in court on corruption charges.</em></p>
<p><em>Khan, who was <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-pakistan-after-imran-khans-ouster-181212">ousted from power in April 2022</a>, has denied any wrongdoing and has called on supporters to protest his detainment.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked Ayesha Jalal, a <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/faculty/ayesha-jalal">professor of Pakistan’s history at Tufts University</a>, to explain what the arrest means for the country’s politics.</em></p>
<h2>What is behind Khan’s arrest?</h2>
<p>The first thing to note is that Khan was arrested by the Pakistan Rangers rather than the police. The Rangers, a paramilitary force, are <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230110038_2">usually deployed for internal security matters</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/former-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-arrested-geo-tv-2023-05-09/">surrounded Khan while wearing riot gear</a> during the operation.</p>
<p>The arrest follows an earlier warrant issued by the National Accountability Bureau, which is tasked with investigating corruption cases. But it isn’t entirely clear why the paramilitary force was needed to make the arrest.</p>
<p>The charges that led to the arrest relate to a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/9/what-is-al-qadir-trust-case-under-which-imran-khan-is-arrested">murky corruption case</a> involving the alleged <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/imran-khans-dramatic-arrest-what-is-the-al-qadir-trust-case-8600234/">payment of 5 billion Rupees</a> (US$17.5 million) to Khan and his wife for legalizing a laundered sum of money for the couple’s Al-Qadir Trust. It is alleged that land and money came from real estate tycoon Malik Riaz after the then-Khan government in 2019 helped Riaz in a case involving money repatriated to Pakistan following a U.K. investigation into the tycoon.</p>
<p>Khan denies the charges, with one close aide to the opposition leader <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/party-officials-imran-khan-arrested-in-court-in-islamabad-/7084863.html">accusing the government of “state terrorism</a>” over the “abduction.” But it is just one of many legal challenges facing Khan. In fact, he faces dozens of corruption and other charges, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/pakistani-police-file-terrorism-charges-against-former-pm-khan-after-violence-in-capital#:%7E:text=The%20charges%20include%20terrorism%2C%20obstructing,vote%20in%20Parliament%20last%20April.">even terrorism</a>. But I should add that charges of graft being levied against politicians and even former prime ministers are far from uncommon in Pakistan.</p>
<h2>Why were paramilitary Rangers involved?</h2>
<p>That isn’t entirely clear. Police had previously <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163594466/pakistan-imran-khan-police-clashes">tried to arrest Khan in Lahore</a>. But calling in the Rangers indicates that the military establishment is behind the arrest, or at the very least certainly approves of it.</p>
<p>Nothing in Pakistani politics happens <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/20/imran-khan-pakistan-military-establishment-courts-pti/">without the military’s involvement</a>, so perhaps that isn’t too surprising. And it is notable that the arrest occurred a day after the Inter-Services Public Relations – the media wing of Pakistan’s armed forces – <a href="https://arynews.tv/imran-khans-remarks-condemned-by-ispr/">denounced Khan</a> for <a href="https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/imran-khan-pti-isi-officer-faisal-naseer-was-involved-journalists-arshad-sharif-16590751.htm">alleging that a senior general</a> tried to kill him twice and played a role in the murder of a broadcast journalist, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/party-officials-imran-khan-arrested-court-islamabad-99190488">seemingly with no evidence</a>.</p>
<h2>What has been the response to Khan’s arrest?</h2>
<p>Supporters of the former prime minister and cricket star have been saying all along that arresting Khan would be a red line. So, of course, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/party-officials-imran-khan-arrested-in-court-in-islamabad-/7084863.html">there have been protests</a>, some of which have turned violent.</p>
<p>You have to remember that Khan has a strong support base, but the country is very fragmented politically. So it is a dangerous situation.</p>
<p>My fear is that the arrest will only pour more fuel on a combustible situation. Pakistan has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/18/pakistan-inches-away-from-civil-unrest-after-ousting-of-imran-khan">simmering since Khan’s ouster in 2022</a>, with the very real threat of political tensions giving way to widespread violence. </p>
<p>What was needed was for all involved to try to lower the temperature, but the circumstances of Khan’s arrest have only served to heighten tensions.</p>
<h2>How does the arrest reflect on the current government?</h2>
<p>The optics are bad for the Pakistani government. Many in Pakistan will view this as a form of political harassment, regardless of the merits of the case and strength of evidence against Khan.</p>
<p>It also strengthens the view that the National Accountability Bureau is a tool for the serving government to persecute political opponents. Khan’s government itself used the bureau when it <a href="https://www.arabnews.pk/node/1382996/pakistan?page=5">arrested opposition leader Shahbaz Sharif</a>, the current prime minister, in relation to a corruption case.</p>
<p>More worryingly, the arrest may be a precursor for an attempt to disqualify Khan from public office – which I believe would be a very dangerous move in an election year.</p>
<p>And this all comes while the incumbent government is facing severe challenges, having been <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-02/pakistan-s-inflation-hits-record-with-no-sign-yet-of-imf-funds#xj4y7vzkg">unable to control soaring inflation</a> or <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-imf-agree-more-talks-delaying-bailout-2023-02-10/">make progress on a crucial International Monetary Fund loan</a> to dig the country out of its economic woes.</p>
<h2>How will this affect Khan’s popularity?</h2>
<p>In the short term, this could see a further surge in his popularity. Khan is framing himself as an anti-establishment figure, despite once being a beneficiary of the establishment himself. Either way, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/27/asia/pakistan-imran-khan-us-conspiracy-intl-hnk/index.html">anti-establishment narratives work well</a> with sections of the Pakistani population.</p>
<p>Since being ousted from power, Khan has been busy rallying his base – even surviving an apparent assassination attempt while campaigning. A <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1740892">poll from March 2023</a> showed that he is by far the most popular political leader in the country, far ahead of Sharif and his brother, and also former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif.</p>
<h2>What does this mean for the upcoming election?</h2>
<p>We will have to see. Elections are expected to take place in October, although Khan has repeatedly <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-ex-pm-khan-announces-march-capital-call-early-elections-2022-10-25/#:%7E:text=LAHORE%2C%20Oct%2025%20(Reuters),to%20call%20for%20early%20elections.">called for the vote to be brought forward</a> to as soon as possible.</p>
<p>Of course, a lot hinges on whether Khan will be allowed to run, or if the government will try to find a way to disqualify him.</p>
<p>If it does find a way to prevent Khan from taking part, the government is mistaken in thinking that the opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, would be easier to handle without Khan. Khan himself anticipated this in an <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/24/1165766400/pakistans-imran-khan-talks-of-prosecuting-opponents-as-they-try-to-prosecute-him">interview in March with NPR</a>: “I don’t know whether they’ll eventually end up disqualifying me, but it doesn’t matter because the party I lead now has a popularity wave unprecedented in our history. So whether I’m in jail or not, the party is going to sweep the elections anyway.”</p>
<p>But this is a situation that is still unfolding. With Pakistani politics, anything could happen between now and the election – whenever that will be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205340/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ayesha Jalal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Protests took hold across Pakistan following the detention of the opposition leader and former cricket star – raising tensions in an election year.Ayesha Jalal, Professor of History, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2053922023-05-10T06:30:32Z2023-05-10T06:30:32ZHow Imran Khan’s populism has divided Pakistan and put it on a knife’s edge<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525317/original/file-20230510-21-n3ri0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=372%2C0%2C2796%2C2237&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pervez Masih/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The arrest this week of former Pakistan prime minister and cricket legend Imran Khan has triggered nationwide protests targeting military and other institutions, some of which have <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65531648">turned violent</a>. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s political crisis has worsened significantly since Khan lost a no-confidence motion in parliament and was ousted from power last April. Since then, Khan’s populist rhetoric has stoked divisions in society, leading to extreme polarisation and the violent reactions we’ve seen this week. </p>
<h2>Khan takes on the military</h2>
<p>Khan began sowing these divisions even before he left office. Before his ouster, he had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/31/imran-khan-address-pakistan-faces-no-confidence-vote">blamed</a> Pakistan’s one-time close ally, the United States, for <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-s-pm-khan-alleges-us-trying-to-topple-his-government-/6510620.html">conspiring against his government</a> and trying to push him from power. </p>
<p>His party, the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf, has a long history of labelling its political opponents as Western slaves, so this narrative reverberated among his supporters.</p>
<p>Khan then shifted his anger towards the army and its then-chief, General Qamar Bajwa, claiming they were trying to bring down his government.</p>
<p>Khan and the military were once close. Soon after he rose to power in 2018, many of the leaders in his party claimed it was perhaps the first time a civilian government and the military establishment were on the same page in Pakistan. </p>
<p>But the relationship started to fray over the <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1652360">appointment</a> of a new head of Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s powerful intelligence agency, in 2021. Khan wanted the then-chief of the agency, General Faiz Hameed, to continue in the role, while the military wanted someone else.</p>
<p>Then, last November, Khan survived an assassination attempt at a political rally in Punjab province. A day later, he <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/04/asia/imran-khan-attack-pakistan-intl/index.html">pointed the finger</a> at three senior government figures as being behind the attack – the new prime minister, the interior minister and a senior intelligence official.</p>
<p>The military establishment issued a <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/2415650/ispr-warns-imran-against-hurling-baseless-allegations-against-serving-military-officer">statement</a> accusing Khan of fabricating the allegations. Khan <a href="https://www.24newshd.tv/09-May-2023/imran-khan-responds-to-ispr-says-he-stands-by-his-accusations">responded</a> immediately by saying that he stood by his allegations.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525321/original/file-20230510-21-bufye3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525321/original/file-20230510-21-bufye3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525321/original/file-20230510-21-bufye3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525321/original/file-20230510-21-bufye3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525321/original/file-20230510-21-bufye3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525321/original/file-20230510-21-bufye3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525321/original/file-20230510-21-bufye3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Khan’s supporters march through the streets after he was targeted in the assassination attempt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mohammad Ramiz/AP</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/shooting-of-imran-khan-takes-pakistan-into-dangerous-political-waters-193937">Shooting of Imran Khan takes Pakistan into dangerous political waters</a>
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<h2>Graft allegations from the new government</h2>
<p>While political violence has a long history in Pakistan, it has certainly increased in the wake of Khan’s populist attacks on the military and other institutions and the political polarisation that has ensued. The new government’s pursuit of Khan has also sparked anger among his supporters.</p>
<p>After removing Khan’s party from power last year, the Pakistan Democratic Alliance – an alliance of several other parties, including the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Pakistan People’s Party – formed a government and immediately began targeting Khan and his party officials in whatever ways possible.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-dispute-between-imran-khan-and-the-pakistan-government-about-189128">What's the dispute between Imran Khan and the Pakistan government about?</a>
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<p>In the so-called “<a href="https://www.thequint.com/news/world/diamonds-rolexes-millions-what-is-toshakhana-case-pakistan-former-pm-imran-khan-full-list-gifts#read-more">Toshakhana case</a>”, the government accused Khan and his wife of corruption for illegally keeping gifts given to them by other countries. The case refers to the <a href="https://www.thequint.com/news/world/diamonds-rolexes-millions-what-is-toshakhana-case-pakistan-former-pm-imran-khan-full-list-gifts#read-more">Toshakhana department</a> in the government responsible for storing expensive gifts given to public officials. Just last week, the Islamabad High Court <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/toshakhana-case-imran-khan-bushra-bibi-get-relief-from-islamabad-high-court-4011637">found the case to be illegal and dismissed it</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1654755706728329217"}"></div></p>
<p>Khan has faced a flood of other <a href="https://www.opindia.com/2023/03/pakistan-37-cases-filed-against-imran-khan-sedition-blasphemy-and-terrorism/">allegations</a>, however, ranging from corruption to sedition. By some counts, he faces <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/imran-khan-faces-over-120-cases-across-pakistan/articleshow/100101770.cms">more than 100 cases around the country</a>. There are elements of revenge politics here because Khan’s government had also targeted rival political leaders through corruption charges when it was in power. </p>
<p>The new government has made several attempts to arrest him in recent months. A small team from the federal police was <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1049907-heavy-police-contingent-surrounds-zaman-park-to-arrest-imran">sent</a> to his house in Lahore in March, but faced heavy resistance from Khan supporters. A popular slogan emerged among Khan’s supporters:
“Khan is our red line”. It was a warning to the state not to arrest him.</p>
<p>Although the government has tightly controlled the mainstream media, Khan’s party has reached its supporters through social media to stoke dissent. And despite crackdowns on Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf leaders, party workers and Khan sympathisers for speaking out against the state on social media, the government hasn’t been able to control the simmering anger across the country.</p>
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<h2>Khan’s arrest sparks violence</h2>
<p>This week, Khan was finally arrested on corruption charges related to another case involving the Al-Qadir University Trust. Khan is <a href="https://www.geo.tv/latest/486393-rangers-arrest-imran-khan">accused</a> of using state funds to compensate a real estate giant, Malik Riaz, for land that would be used to build a new university called Al-Qadir. </p>
<p>Khan’s lawyers challenged the legality of the arrest, but the High Court upheld it. Doubts have remained over whether the authorities followed the proper procedures, however, so it was not surprising that Khan’s supporters reacted the way they have. Within hours of the arrest, party workers and supporters gathered in many major cities and began openly attacking key military buildings. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1655933493891977226"}"></div></p>
<p>The headquarters of Pakistan’s army was <a href="https://www.nation.com.pk/10-May-2023/ghq-attacked-lahore-corps-commander-house-set-on-fire-by-pti-protesters#:%7E:text=The%2520violent%2520protesters%2520entered%2520the,be%2520seen%2520from%2520a%2520distance.">attacked</a> by a mob in Rawalpindi, as was the house of a corps commander in Lahore. This is unprecedented – the army headquarters have only ever been <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/11/deciphering-the-attack-on-pakistans-army-headquarters/">targeted</a> by terrorists before.</p>
<p>The military was singled out due to Khan’s earlier allegations the army conspired to oust him from power and also the fact he was arrested by rangers and not the police. </p>
<p>So far, no one knows Khan’s exact location or whether he is under civilian or military custody. It is very likely the protests will continue – and with that, increasing levels of violence – until Khan is released.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zahid Shahab Ahmed is a chief investigator in a research project called 'Religious populism, emotions and political mobilisation’, funded by the Australian Research Council (DP220100829).</span></em></p>The supporters of Pakistan’s populist former leader have been seething with anger since his arrest on corruption allegations.Zahid Shahab Ahmed, Senior Research Fellow, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1968402022-12-26T14:55:10Z2022-12-26T14:55:10Z5 elections to watch in 2023 – what’s at stake as millions head to the ballot box around the globe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502457/original/file-20221221-12-g5snzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C1%2C855%2C562&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Votes aplenty in 2023</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/voting-royalty-free-illustration/1007970946?phrase=ballot%20box%20hand&adppopup=true">smartboy10 via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Predicting the outcome of national elections can be a mug’s game. Polls are <a href="https://theconversation.com/survey-experts-have-yet-to-figure-out-what-caused-the-most-significant-polling-error-in-40-years-in-trump-biden-race-160967">often wrong</a>, and second-guessing how people will vote months down the line can leave even the most savvy election specialist with egg on their face.</p>
<p>In short, there are too many unknowns – the state of the economy, late political shocks and even the weather on election day. What is known is that 2023 has its fair share on consequential races. Democracy is on the ballot in a number of nations, while common themes – such as the handling of inflation and corruption – may determine how incumbent governments and presidents fare as the ballot box. The Conversation asked five experts to provide the lowdown on what is at stake in key national votes in 2023.</p>
<p>Here are their psephological pearls of wisdom:</p>
<h2>Nigeria (Feb. 25)</h2>
<p><em>Carl LeVan, professor of comparative and regional studies at American University</em></p>
<p>Some of the campaign dynamics heading into the Nigerian presidential election will seem familiar to those who follow the country, with politics still deeply entwined with <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31101351">the country’s geographic-religious divide</a> between a predominantly Muslim north and its Christian south. And after eight years of a northerner – Muhammadu Buhari – holding the presidency, debate revolves around whether power should “shift” to the south.</p>
<p>Buhari, in line with the constitution, is stepping down after serving two four-year terms – and that changes the electoral landscape. For only the second time since the transition to civilian rule in 1999, there’s no incumbent presidential candidate.</p>
<p>Having no incumbent seeking reelection has historically <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/democracy-in-africa/3FFB8B40059192D449B77A402ADC82A1">increased the chances of opposition party victory</a> in Africa. Arguably for the first time since the 1980s, each of the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria has produced a serious presidential contender: Atiku Abubakar who is of Hausa-Fulani descent, the Yoruba former Lagos governor Bola Tinubu and former Anambra governor Peter Obi, a member of the Igbo.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An overhead shows a group fo mainly men holding aloft placards." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502628/original/file-20221224-48432-roj92l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502628/original/file-20221224-48432-roj92l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502628/original/file-20221224-48432-roj92l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502628/original/file-20221224-48432-roj92l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502628/original/file-20221224-48432-roj92l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502628/original/file-20221224-48432-roj92l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502628/original/file-20221224-48432-roj92l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Supporters of the ruling All Progressive Congress.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/crowd-of-the-nigerias-ruling-political-party-supporters-the-news-photo/1239540224?phrase=election%20buhari%20nigeria&adppopup=true">Kola Sulaimon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>While this might seem like progress – and has advanced inter-ethnic cooperation in the presidential campaign – it also dramatically increases the risk of no clear winner <a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nigeria_2011.pdf">under the constitution</a>’s formula that requires both a plurality of votes and a geographical distribution of support. A runoff has never before taken place, and the electoral commission would have only a week to organize it.</p>
<p>Security and poverty are key electoral themes. Buhari won in 2015 by prioritizing <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/african-government-politics-and-policy/contemporary-nigerian-politics-competition-time-transition-and-terror?format=PB">economic growth, anti-corruption and the defeat of the world’s deadliest insurgency</a>, Boko Haram. Yet today, <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099730003152232753/pdf/P17630107476630fa09c990da780535511c.pdf">more than 80 million Nigerians remain in poverty</a>, while insecurity ravages the country. The <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2022/country-chapters/nigeria">scale of violence plaguing Nigeria</a> has not been seen since the civil war ended in 1970, while the geographical scope is unprecedented. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad516-ties-that-bind-evidence-of-unity-and-division-in-34-african-countries/">only 15% of Nigerians</a> feel more loyalty to their nation than to their ethnic group.</p>
<p>This raises the specter of electoral violence and voter intimidation in the run-up to the Feb. 23 vote. Political violence, both between and within political parties, <a href="https://acleddata.com/nigeria-election-violence-tracker/">increased in 2022</a>. Despite this, candidates have been largely running on hopeful messages about economic diversification, anti-corruption and opportunities for Nigeria’s youth.</p>
<h2>Turkey (June 18)</h2>
<p><em>Ahmet Kuru, professor of political science at San Diego State University</em></p>
<p>People in Turkey tend to call every presidential election historic – but the June 2023 election will truly be historic. It will determine whether the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4d2b37cd-a50a-43e2-aff1-5ff4a53015a6">increasingly autocratic rule</a> of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will continue to dominate the country’s politics or not. What’s at stake is not simply “politics” in the narrow sense of the term, but also the direction in economic policy, religion, education and many other fields.</p>
<p>If Erdogan wins, it could portend a further erosion of the remaining opposition in Turkish public life, especially given his <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2016/07/23/erdogans-revenge">past record of authoritarianism and vengefulness</a>. Indeed, there is already a suspicion that potential presidential candidates are being targeted, with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-istanbuls-mayor-was-sentenced-to-jail-and-what-it-means-for-turkeys-2023-presidential-race-196632">popular mayor of Istanbul being sentenced to prison</a> in December – a conviction that if held up on appeal would bar him from running for any political office.</p>
<p>The danger is the Turkish opposition will lose hope for the future. It could also <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/1707596/middle-east">exacerbate the country’s “brain drain” problem</a> – as well-educated people, including medical doctors, academics, and businesspeople, migrate to Western countries, weakening the opposition at home.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large cut out head of a man is held aloft a crowd." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502474/original/file-20221221-13-35ffij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502474/original/file-20221221-13-35ffij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502474/original/file-20221221-13-35ffij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502474/original/file-20221221-13-35ffij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502474/original/file-20221221-13-35ffij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502474/original/file-20221221-13-35ffij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502474/original/file-20221221-13-35ffij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Erdogan looms large over the Turkish vote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-the-ruling-ak-party-attend-a-stadium-rally-news-photo/1445091533?phrase=erdogan&adppopup=true">Ozan Guzelce / dia images via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An Erdogan loss would be hugely consequential. Those who have been silenced under his rule will be able to speak up again. <a href="https://hrf.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Turkey-ECtHR-Report_April-2019.pdf">Over a hundred thousand</a> people have been jailed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/magazine/inside-turkeys-purge.html">as part of Erdogan’s political purge</a>. It would not surprise me that in the event of an Erdogan loss, legal action is taken against him and his civil servants over alleged abuses and against his <a href="https://www.academia.edu/44855262/Here_to_Stay_Crony_Capitalism_in_Turkey">crony-capitalists</a> over <a href="https://www.duvarenglish.com/erdogan-liable-for-odious-debt-resulting-from-kanal-istanbul-iyi-party-leader-meral-aksener-news-58010">alleged corruption</a>.</p>
<p>The outcome of the election will also determine the future of religion-state relations. Turkey’s <a href="https://www.diyanet.gov.tr/en-US/">Directorate of Religious Affairs</a>, which controls 80,000 mosques, is a major ally of Erdogan. Any change in the administration is likely to result in curtailing of the directorate’s powers.</p>
<p>The 2023 presidential election will be fought over politics, economics and religion. If Erdogan wins, he will frame himself as the second founder of Turkey, after <a href="https://www.ktb.gov.tr/EN-103908/biography-of-ataturk.html">Mustafa Kemal Ataturk</a>. If he loses, his political, business, and religious allies will face the risk of being expunged.</p>
<h2>Zimbabwe (likely July-August)</h2>
<p><em>Miles Tendi, associate professor of politics at the University of Oxford</em></p>
<p>The 2023 election in Zimbabwe will be the second national vote to take place after the downfall of the country’s former leader Robert Mugabe.</p>
<p>The country’s last election, in 2018, occurred a year after <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/11/20/africa/zimbabwe-military-takeover-strangest-coup/index.html">a military coup</a> ended Robert Mugabe’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zimbabwe-mugabe-obituary/zimbabwes-mugabe-from-liberator-to-oppressor-idUSKCN1VR0HK">oppresive 37-year-long leadership</a>. But contrary to the hopes of many Zimbabweans and foreign governments, that ballot <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/23/post-mugabe-zimbabwes-elections-still-look-irregular-much-as-rhodesias-once-did/">did not prove to be a momentous break</a> from the country’s extensive history of disputed and violent elections – underlining that powerful systemic problems, such as the conflation of the ruling ZANU PF party and the state, generate flawed elections in Zimbabwe.</p>
<p>Whether Zimbabwe can finally stage an election that is universally accepted as credible is one of the key issues in 2023. A credible election in itself will not bring about consequential political, economic and social reforms. But Western states and international donors <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ZWE">such as the International Monetary Fund</a> will be looking for an unblemished national vote as a prerequisite to earnest economic and diplomatic re-engagement with Zimbabwe after years of strained relations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502473/original/file-20221221-18-8wu3dh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502473/original/file-20221221-18-8wu3dh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502473/original/file-20221221-18-8wu3dh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502473/original/file-20221221-18-8wu3dh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502473/original/file-20221221-18-8wu3dh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502473/original/file-20221221-18-8wu3dh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502473/original/file-20221221-18-8wu3dh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman cast a ballot during a Zimbabwean by-election on March 26, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-cast-a-ballot-during-a-by-election-at-a-polling-news-photo/1239514516?phrase=voting%20zimbabwe&adppopup=true">Zinyange Auntony / AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Observers will also be hoping for improvements on women’s political rights. The <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/7/25/stereotypes-violence-keep-women-out-of-politics-in-zimbabwe">gendered nature of political leadership, violence, election campaigns and voting behavior</a> have precluded equal representation for women in Zimbabwean politics. Only 26 of the 210 constituencies in the 2018 parliamentary election were won by women candidates. Although four women ran for president in 2018, <a href="https://www.ndi.org/publications/final-report-2018-zimbabwe-harmonized-elections-relative-improvements-insufficient">none managed more than 4% of the vote share</a>.</p>
<p>The future of opposition politics is also on the ballot. Since 2018, the main opposition movement has had to contend with <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/170384/zimbabwe-are-president-mnangagwas-spoiler-parties-imploding/">state repression, internal splits and underfunding</a>. In the intervening years it has failed to get large numbers of new voters onto the electoral register.</p>
<p>If the ruling ZANU PF party pulls off the overwhelming election victory it is working towards, it is likely that the opposition will be further saddled with division and disillusionment, posing an existential threat to the kind of vibrant opposition politics led by the Movement for Democratic Change in the past two decades. And with no strong opposition to challenge and keep a check on ZANU PF, the danger is authoritarian rule will be solidified.</p>
<h2>Argentina (October 29)</h2>
<p><em>Eduardo Gamarra, professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University</em></p>
<p>Even with a <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2022/12/19/1144086232/argentina-wins-world-cup-final-photos">World Cup to savor</a>, many Argentinians are pretty gloomy going into the 2023 election year – for good reason. The nation’s <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-12-21/in-hangover-of-world-cup-fiesta-argentinas-economic-reality-bites">economy has been on the skids</a> for a long time and it has one of the <a href="https://countryeconomy.com/national-debt/argentina">highest per capita debts</a> in Latin America. On top of this there are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-15/argentina-inflation-spikes-to-92-as-economic-growth-picks-up">sky-high inflation</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-inflation-cools-more-than-expected-november-2022-12-15/">low wages</a> and poor growth – all worsened by the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>Not all of these problems are the sole making of President Alberto Fernández and his powerful vice president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner – both from the center-left Peronist faction. In fact, former President Mauricio Macri racked up <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ce0d1647-0bd7-4bb4-b787-d1301a8a3bc0">massive levels of debt to the IMF</a> before being voted out in 2019. But it is fair to say that Fernández and Fernández de Kirchner have been unable to solve the country’s economic problems.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman wearing a beige jacket flashes a 'v for victory' sign while standing on a balcony." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502477/original/file-20221221-23-7yyytk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502477/original/file-20221221-23-7yyytk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502477/original/file-20221221-23-7yyytk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502477/original/file-20221221-23-7yyytk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502477/original/file-20221221-23-7yyytk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502477/original/file-20221221-23-7yyytk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502477/original/file-20221221-23-7yyytk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Will it be ‘v’ for victory for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/argentinas-vice-president-cristina-fernandez-de-kirchner-news-photo/1242671349?phrase=Cristina%20Fern%C3%A1ndez%20de%20Kirchner%20sentence&adppopup=true">Juan Mabromata/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Moreover, the pair have been plagued by other problems, notably corruption – both old-style political patronage and modern corruption based in <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/how-argentina-became-the-newest-drug-trafficking-hub/">drug trafficking</a> throughout the country.</p>
<p>Indeed on Dec. 6, 2022, Fernández de Kirchner was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/cristina-fernandez-de-kirchner-argentina-sentenced-prison-fraud-case">sentenced to six years in jail</a> in a scandal over a kickback scheme that saw public contracts go to a friend in return for bribes.</p>
<p>Some are even predicting that the combination of mishandling the economy and the corruption scandal could bring an end to Peronism, <a href="https://www.telesurenglish.net/analysis/What-is-Peronism-20141111-0014.html">the political philosophy</a> that has governed Argentina for much of last 70 years. Indeed the Peronists appear to be struggling with unifying around a candidate to contest the election.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the party of Mauricio Macri <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bf93deaa-e67f-4fca-a699-c920ee1dffc5">is similarly split</a>, with the former president facing strong challenges from within his own party.</p>
<p>These political and economic circumstances may favor a third contended: Javier Milei, a <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2021/10/07/javier-milei-a-libertarian-may-be-elected-to-argentinas-congress">populist libertarian</a> who has been rising in the polls and whose brusque style has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/an-argentine-libertarian-channels-inner-trump-blow-up-political-status-quo-2022-05-17/">drawn comparisons with Donald Trump</a>.</p>
<h2>Pakistan (by end of 2023)</h2>
<p><em>Ayesha Jalal, professor of history at Tufts University</em></p>
<p>Pakistani elections are all about power. In particular, this one will be all about whether <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-pakistan-after-imran-khans-ouster-181212">ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan</a> can get <a href="https://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/672573-Imran-says-he-will-not-accept-government-without-two-third-majority-">the two-third majority he says he wants</a> to govern Pakistan. Anything less will not satisfy the former national cricket star.</p>
<p>A big question is when the elections will take place. In Pakistan, general elections are not held under an incumbent government. Instead, an interim government – typically made up of technocrats – takes over with an election <a href="https://www.pakistani.org/pakistan/constitution/part8.ch2.html">having to take place within 90 days</a>.</p>
<p>But with the ruling coalition seemingly intent on holding on to power for as long as possible while the country faces <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1726921">an economic crisis</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pakistans-premier-urges-global-aid-20m-flood-victims-95649061">environmental disaster</a> and a <a href="https://minutemirror.com.pk/pakistan-gets-10-less-loan-due-to-credibility-crisis-74030/">credibility crisis</a> it is unclear when the national assembly will dissolve and an interim government take over. And that could mean pushing the election toward the end of the year. </p>
<p>Either way, it will be a consequential election. It remains to be seen if the current coalition government – which <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-pakistan-after-imran-khans-ouster-181212">ousted Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf party</a> last year – will hold together, as it <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/08/pakistans-new-government-struggles-consolidate-control">consists of a number of parties</a>.</p>
<p>Khan has said he wants a two-third majority to bring about the constitutional changes he would like. So if he fails to get that, will he still be satisfied?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man holds a poster depicting Imran Khan next to the words 'Last Hope'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502476/original/file-20221221-11-ms2zdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502476/original/file-20221221-11-ms2zdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502476/original/file-20221221-11-ms2zdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502476/original/file-20221221-11-ms2zdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502476/original/file-20221221-11-ms2zdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502476/original/file-20221221-11-ms2zdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502476/original/file-20221221-11-ms2zdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Imran Khan is hoping for a two-thirds majority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-former-pakistani-prime-minister-imran-khan-news-photo/1244476581?phrase=imran%20khan%20shot&adppopup=true">Aamir Qureshi/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Either way, the 2023 election is unlikely to be the answer to Pakistan’s woes. Whoever is in charge after will need to paper over the economic cracks with the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/pakistan-imf-plan-move-fast-bailout-programme-2022-11-17/">help of the International Monetary Fund</a>; without a further bailout, Pakistan won’t have the liquidity it needs to function.</p>
<p>You can never rule out electoral violence. Pakistan is <a href="https://edtimes.in/pakistans-gun-laws-are-a-mad-mans-dream-come-true/">awash with guns</a> and is very polarized. Violence <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/05/12/world/asia/pakistan-election/index.html">marred the election in 2013</a> and there has been recent violence in northern Pakistan as well as the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/03/asia/imran-khan-pakistan-rally-intl/index.html">shooting of Khan at a rally</a>.</p>
<p>That said, the hope is the nation’s security forces can keep a lid on violence during the election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196840/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Zimbabwe, Turkey, Argentina, Pakistan and Nigeria all have presidential or general elections in 2023.Blessing-Miles Tendi, Associate Professor in the Politics of Africa, University of OxfordAhmet T. Kuru, Professor of Political Science, San Diego State UniversityAyesha Jalal, Professor of History, Tufts UniversityCarl LeVan, Professor of Comparative and Regional studies, American University School of International ServiceEduardo Gamarra, Professor of Politics and International Relations, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1938932022-11-04T12:29:43Z2022-11-04T12:29:43ZImran Khan shot: How attack will affect protest campaign led by Pakistan’s ousted leader<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493376/original/file-20221103-19-slhwu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C90%2C4615%2C2991&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Imran Khan addresses his supporters during an anti-government march.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pakistans-former-prime-minister-imran-khan-addresses-his-news-photo/1244400755?phrase=Imran%20Khan&adppopup=true">Arif Ali/AFP via Getty Images.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan survived what <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/shots-fired-near-convoy-former-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-media-2022-11-03/">supporters described as an assassination attempt</a> on Nov. 3, 2022, as he led protests against the government.</em></p>
<p><em>Khan, a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-19844270">former national sports hero turned political leader</a>, was shot in the leg, as he led a march to the country’s capital Islamabad.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked Ayesha Jalal, a <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/faculty/ayesha-jalal">history professor at Tufts University</a>, to explain how the attempt on his life may affect Khan’s campaign – and what happens next in the country.</em></p>
<h2>What was Khan doing when the assassination attempt was made?</h2>
<p>Khan was in the process of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-28/pakistan-s-imran-khan-starts-rally-to-push-for-early-elections">leading a lengthy protest march</a> when the attack happened.</p>
<p>Having been <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-pakistan-after-imran-khans-ouster-181212">ousted from power</a> in a no-confidence motion earlier in the year, Khan is pushing for new elections to take place immediately in a bid to oust his successor, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The current government has said <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/pak-will-not-hold-elections-before-2023-warns-imran-khan-against-gravedigging-101653378715263.html">elections will take place in a year’s time</a>, as planned, despite the ongoing protests.</p>
<p>Khan says that his ouster in April was caused by <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-why-is-imran-khan-blaming-the-west-for-his-downfall/a-61316499">outside forces</a>, including the United States. He is also protesting a recent decision by the Election Commission of Pakistan to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/21/asia/imran-khan-pakistan-election-commission-disqualified-intl-hnk">ban him from holding public office</a> for five years.</p>
<p>The protest march <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1716867">began on Oct. 28, 2022</a>, and has been inching towards Islamabad, the country’s capital, from the city of Lahore. It is part of a strategy to increase Khan’s popularity and exert pressure on the government to hold new elections. Khan has said that he is prepared to continue his protest for months, if necessary. The tactic follows a similar successful series of rallies after the 2013 elections that helped propel Khan to office in 2018.</p>
<h2>Why is he seeking immediate elections?</h2>
<p>First off, he doesn’t accept the legitimacy of his ouster. But a big part of this is the appointment of <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/strategic-insights/pakistans-next-army-chief/">Pakistan’s next army chief</a>. The current head of the army, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, is due to retire on Nov. 29. Under Pakistan’s constitution, it is the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-ex-pm-s-comments-over-appointment-of-army-chief-fuel-tensions/6732273.html">prerogative of the serving prime minister</a> to appoint the army chief – so at present, that would be Khan’s political rival Sharif, who took over as the country’s leader in April.</p>
<p>The reason this is so important is that <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/south-asia/2011-04-15/getting-military-out-pakistani-politics">support of the military has traditionally been crucial</a> for governments in Pakistan. Put simply, without the support of Pakistan’s army, no political party can remain in power for long.</p>
<p>As a result, Khan sees it as crucial for any future success that he have a say in who is appointed the next army chief – and for that to happen he, or his party, needs to be in government. </p>
<p>But the idea of a loyal Army chief is a myth. The current chief was given an extension by Khan and although their relationship started off well, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/31/imran-khan-pakistan-army-political-crisis-zulfikar-ali-bhutto/">it later soured</a>.</p>
<h2>How popular is Khan’s campaign?</h2>
<p>His protests have <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-61189745">garnered huge crowds</a> and seen his <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1f623241-5dfd-4ab2-8cc7-a5062f112020">popularity surge</a> – with a big chunk of the Pakistani youth seemingly behind him.</p>
<p>You have to remember that Khan was already a hugely popular figure in the country – he is a former captain of the national cricket team who presents himself as an anti-corruption politician.</p>
<p>Khan has also been able to play on the unpopular decisions by the current government. It was forced into an <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d3d57c66-35a8-4815-82e7-20057638129d">unpopular financial bailout</a> from the International Monetary Fund and has suffered over its handling of <a href="https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/devastating-floods-pakistan-2022">devastating floods in the country</a> – about <a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2022/09/12/the-flood-seen-from-space-pakistans-apocalyptic-crisis/#:%7E:text=One%2Dthird%20of%20Pakistan%20is,wide%20and%2060%20miles%20long.">a third of the country was under water</a> in September and some <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Natural-disasters/In-flooded-Pakistan-11m-people-deal-with-severe-food-insecurity2">11 million people are facing severe food insecurity</a>.</p>
<p>With this as a backdrop, I think it is fair to say that Imran Khan is currently winning the propaganda battle with the government.</p>
<h2>What is happening with Khan’s campaign now?</h2>
<p>It was clearly an unfortunate incident, but the attempt on his life might work to his advantage. It could <a href="https://www.eurasiareview.com/03112022-pakistan-the-shot-in-the-leg-is-a-shot-in-the-arm-for-imran-khan-analysis/">draw sympathy, invigorate the campaign</a> and add to his popularity.</p>
<p>But will it solve the political stalemate or increase the chances of early elections? Or mean he has a say in who gets appointed the next Army chief? I don’t know, but I think it is unlikely.</p>
<p>In Pakistan, it is easy to muster up anti-establishment, anti-government sentiment, but a lot harder turning that into action. Khan can certainly exert pressure on the government. But the question is: will that be enough to force it into giving in to his demands or cutting a deal?</p>
<p>That said, Khan has been resolute that he will not give up his campaign. He has previously said that what is happening with his march <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1005373-revolution-could-be-soft-or-thru-bloodshed-imran">amounts to a revolution taking over the country</a> – with the only question being whether the revolution will be brought about via the ballot box or through bloodshed. I – and many others – will be hoping for the former.</p>
<h2>Is political violence unusual in Pakistani politics?</h2>
<p>Tragically, no. The history of Pakistan has been dotted by assassinations and attempts on the lives of both serving and former prime ministers.</p>
<p>Pakistan’s first Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1213461">was shot in front of a crowd in 1951</a>, and later died in a hospital. More recently, former prime minister – the country’s first female leader – <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42409374">Benazir Bhutto was assassinated</a> in a gun and suicide bomb attack while campaigning in Rawalpindi in 2007. Imran Khan himself has been subjected to numerous threats in the past.</p>
<p>Some of these acts of political violence have led to lasting consequences. Liaquat Ali Khan’s assassination led to a shift away from democracy for Pakistan, for example.</p>
<h2>What happens next?</h2>
<p>The next few weeks will be crucial and the fear is there will be an escalation of violence. Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, has <a href="https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/pakistan-news/in-a-fiery-first-response-pti-vows-to-avenge-assassination-attempt-against-imran-khan-articleshow.html">vowed to “avenge</a>” the attack but the wounded leader himself <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2022/11/3/live-news-ex-pakistan-pm-khan-shot-and-wounded-at-rally">has called on supporters to remain peaceful</a>. Meanwhile, the PTI has said it will continue with the protest march.</p>
<p>In an apparent attempt to tamp down tensions, the Pakistani government has said it is <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/2383814/pm-forms-committee-to-hold-talks-with-pti-over-long-march">willing to negotiate with Khan</a> – but it isn’t clear yet what the substance of the proposed negotiations will be, what they could yield or whether Khan will agree to talks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193893/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ayesha Jalal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Former prime minister emerges from assassination attempt wounded, but vowing to continue protest against government.Ayesha Jalal, Professor of History, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1939372022-11-04T08:46:34Z2022-11-04T08:46:34ZShooting of Imran Khan takes Pakistan into dangerous political waters<p>The attempted assassination of Imran Khan on November 3 has ushered Pakistan into another stage of political instability, with increased likelihood of further political violence. </p>
<p>Imran <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63496202">has accused</a> Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, Interior Minister Sanaullah Khan and Major General Faisal of masterminding the attack. He has demanded these three be removed from their positions immediately. Failure to act, he <a href="https://twitter.com/PTIofficial/status/1588188079277232128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1588188079277232128%7Ctwgr%5Ed5b3fd04e3131208521e14afe9946af45900de42%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenews.com.pk%2Flatest%2F1006350-asad-umar-blames">communicated through Asad Umer</a>, a senior member of his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), would result in demonstrations across the whole country, and “things would not continue as they have been”. </p>
<p>The PTI’s Asad Umer said that two days ago, he had contacted Imran regarding threats to his safety. But Imran had stated: “We are engaged in jihad and we only need to trust Allah at this stage.” Building on this equivalence of the so-called “long march” with “jihad”, the PTI issued a <a href="https://twitter.com/Asad_Umar/status/1588399510614839296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1588399510614839296%7Ctwgr%5E409bdb0bd9b63211810994ae51e1b298768da215%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenews.com.pk%2Flatest%2F1006554-live-updates-day-8-pti-long-march-imran-khan-firing">call for demonstrations</a> to start after Friday prayers on November 4. </p>
<p>The Pakistan government <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1006384-attack-on-imran-widely-condemned">has responded</a> by condemning the assassination attempt. But <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1006384-attack-on-imran-widely-condemned">Minister Rana Sanaullah also told the PTI</a>: “It is [a] law of nature: those who ignite fire may also burn in it.” The national government has also demanded “the Punjab government constitute a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to investigate the attack”. </p>
<p>Others have raised questions about the security extended to the former prime minister in the province of Punjab, where a PTI government is in power.</p>
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<p>Conspiracy theories about the shooting also abound, including claims on social media that the attack was <a href="https://twitter.com/younus_bhoon/status/1588399845307711488?s=20&t=8c-lFy8oci8NGVAhcmNxxw">orchestrated by PTI</a> to boost support for Imran. Only a few days ago, the former international cricketer turned politician had launched a second march within five months for <em>haqiqi azadi</em> (real freedom). Others accuse “external powers” of fomenting instability in the wake of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/2/xi-jinping-assures-pakistani-pm-of-china-support">visit to China</a>, where he met President Xi Jinping and revived the momentum for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-dispute-between-imran-khan-and-the-pakistan-government-about-189128">What's the dispute between Imran Khan and the Pakistan government about?</a>
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<p>Then there is the <a href="https://www.24newshd.tv/03-Nov-2022/attacker-says-was-angry-because-music-was-being-run-during-prayer-call">reported admission</a> by the alleged assassin that he was motivated by religious fervour, as Imran’s march would not cease playing music even during the calls to prayer. Reminiscent of the grounds on which Mumtaz Qadri <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35684452">assassinated</a> the then governor of Punjab Salman Taseer, this explanation, with all its inconsistencies, locates the attempt outside the scope of political machinations. </p>
<p>The reaction among Imran’s supporters has been swift. There have been demonstrations in all provinces of the country, with people <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFtMyPEJZYQ">chanting the attack</a> had “crossed the red line” and they would lay their lives for Imran. This outpouring of support for Imran and anger towards the government has catapulted the country into increased instability, with the future now very uncertain.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493446/original/file-20221104-17-6b4676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493446/original/file-20221104-17-6b4676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493446/original/file-20221104-17-6b4676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493446/original/file-20221104-17-6b4676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493446/original/file-20221104-17-6b4676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493446/original/file-20221104-17-6b4676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493446/original/file-20221104-17-6b4676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Imran Khan’s supporters have responded to his shooting with rallies across Pakistan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shahzaib Akber/EPA/AAP</span></span>
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<p>In the past, the instability might have been reined in by the Pakistan military, which has traditionally acted as custodian of law and order in the country. During the 75 years of Pakistan’s existence, the military has intervened directly or indirectly in politics when the country experienced instability. Even if its intervention was not approved of, politicians and society generally remained complacent and managed to work withing the framework outlined by the military. </p>
<p>But in contemporary Pakistan, given the extent of political and social polarisation that has descended to a level not witnessed in the country’s history, the military may not be able to play this role. Already, Chief of Army Staff Qamar Javed Bajwa has claimed the <a href="https://www.news18.com/news/world/pakistan-army-chief-general-bajwa-to-retire-in-5-weeks-top-3-names-here-exclusive-6215221.html">military would remain neutral</a>. </p>
<p>Even if instability persists and the military decided to intervene, the reaction of Imran’s supporters would be very different from how people reacted to previous military interventions. The assassination attempt on Imran has removed a lot of self-imposed censorship by people. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistan-new-government-must-tackle-police-corruption-and-killings-181834">Pakistan: new government must tackle police corruption and killings</a>
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<p>While people demonstrated outside the office of the Corps Commander of Peshawar, others have been recorded chanting that <a href="https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ga_22EwLXKg">the uniform is behind acts of terrorism and hooliganism</a>. In the past, such comments were only openly made by Pashtoon Tahhafuz Movement (movement for the protection of Pashtoons). </p>
<p>But now, such comments also allude to the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-63372440">recent killing</a> in Kenya of Pakistani journalist Ashraf Sharif, who had been a vocal critic of the military’s involvement in politics. It has been claimed the killing was orchestrated with the direct involvement of the military — a claim that prompted the director-general of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to give a press conference refuting these claims.</p>
<p>Such expressions of anger and open opposition to the military leadership would suggest the military would avoid direct interference. One possible avenue could be of imposing <a href="https://www.geo.tv/latest/430050-explainer-what-is-governors-rule-and-is-punjab-moving-towards-it">governor rule</a> in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but even that is unlikely to tamper the anger being felt by Imran’s supporters.</p>
<p>Pakistan is fast moving into uncharted political terrain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193937/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samina Yasmeen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The shooting in the leg of the former prime minister has seen his supporters take to the streets and the crisis in Pakistani politics deepen.Samina Yasmeen, Director of Centre for Muslim States and Societies, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1891282022-08-23T07:28:37Z2022-08-23T07:28:37ZWhat’s the dispute between Imran Khan and the Pakistan government about?<p>Tensions between former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan and the current coalition government are coming to a head.</p>
<p>Khan made a speech in the northern city of Rawalpindi near Islamabad on Sunday, August 21, seeking a return to office after losing a no-confidence vote in April and being ousted as prime minister. Just hours beforehand, Pakistan’s electronic media regulator <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/pakistan-media-watchdog-imposes-ban-on-ex-pm-imran-khan-s-live-speeches-122082100229_1.html">prohibited Khan’s rallies from being broadcast live</a> on all satellite TV channels.</p>
<p>As he started his address, which was being broadcast on social media, YouTube experienced “disruptions”. This prompted Khan to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-22/former-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-accuse-government-blocking-youtube/101356034">accuse the government</a> of attempting to silence him.</p>
<p>Following this, Pakistani police <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/imran-khan-terror-charges-pakistan-former-prime-minister-charged-following-islamabad-speech/0943e62f-5b76-457d-afef-ceb743d107af">laid charges of terrorism</a> against Khan for comments he had made in a speech about the judiciary a day earlier in Islamabad.</p>
<p>Previously, the government had been quite permissive of Khan’s rallies, but this approach appears to have changed. </p>
<p>So how did we get here?</p>
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<h2>Khan’s narrative</h2>
<p>Since March this year, even before he was ousted, Khan has held numerous rallies, gatherings and social media activities to present his narrative to the Pakistani people locally and overseas.</p>
<p>He has accused, without evidence, the coalition government of working at the behest of the United States. He has <a href="https://www.thequint.com/news/world/former-pm-imran-khan-asks-imported-government-to-sever-ties-with-india">labelled</a> the government an “imported government” and popularised the hashtag “imported government na Manzoor” (the imported government is unacceptable).</p>
<p>Khan has also levelled varying degrees of criticism against <a href="https://asianews.network/imran-khan-asks-judiciary-to-explain-why-courts-opened-their-doors-at-midnight-prior-to-his-ouster/">the judiciary</a>, bureaucracy and media for enabling the coalition government’s return to power in April.</p>
<p>In contrast, he portrays himself as a good Muslim, someone who is following in the footsteps of the founder of the country, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, and as being knowledgeable about the West, honest and incorruptible.</p>
<p>He believes he’s different from the government, which he denounces as corrupt “<a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/957528-nuking-pakistan-better-than-bringing-in-thieves-imran">thieves</a>”, and that he can lead the people of Pakistan in their struggle for true independence. He has urged young people and others to wage the struggle for “haqiqi azadi” (<a href="https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/08/11/road-map-to-real-independence-to-be-unveiled-tomorrow-imran/">real independence</a>).</p>
<p>The often well-choreographed rallies feature music by renowned musicians and singers, and <a href="https://images.dawn.com/news/1189903">appearances</a> by popular actors. The appeal of this narrative is obvious in the thousands of Pakistanis of all ages and backgrounds attending these rallies.</p>
<p>Khan’s speeches are broadcast on social media, including YouTube and Twitter, with the Pakistani diaspora following these developments.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-pakistan-after-imran-khans-ouster-181212">What's next for Pakistan after Imran Khan's ouster?</a>
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<h2>The government’s changing stance</h2>
<p>Since coming to power in April, the coalition government has allowed almost all of these rallies to take place.</p>
<p>One exception was Khan’s May 25 “independence march”, when his supporters marched to Islamabad to call for new elections. The government had attempted to <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20220525-ousted-pakistan-pm-khan-leads-protest-march-on-blockaded-islamabad">shut down the march</a>, but the Supreme Court overturned the ban. Media reported some clashes between police and Khan’s supporters, with police <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-police-fire-teargas-baton-charge-supporters-ousted-pm-khan-2022-05-25/">firing teargas and detaining some protesters</a>.</p>
<p>There are two possible explanations for the government’s mostly permissive approach to Khan’s rallies. The first is that it’s keen to demonstrate its democratic credentials.</p>
<p>The second is that the military – which was <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/asia/imran-khan-s-ouster-is-a-political-fail-for-pakistan-s-military-20220427-p5agh2">instrumental</a> in removing Khan from power – thought Khan’s popularity would run its course and decline over time, so there was no need to intervene especially given the support for Khan’s party apparent among some retired military officials. But that didn’t happen. </p>
<p>Khan’s criticism of the regime became more strident. His references to the “<a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1706166">neutrals</a>”, a euphemism for the military establishment, became increasingly pronounced. Calling upon the “neutrals” to see the light and <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/983413-neutrals-still-have-time-to-review-policies-imran">return power to the rightful representatives</a>, Khan <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1706166">implied the military had supported his ouster</a> and needed to mend its ways. Coupled with his increasing popularity despite his own government’s poor performance, such references fuelled anti-military sentiment that has swept across <a href="https://twitter.com/mirxaahmad/status/1561374783845138432?s=21&t=px3wWo-2V6jgLsLQhjnVDw">social media</a>.</p>
<p>A Pakistan Army helicopter crash on August 1 in the province of Balochistan killed six military officials. This unfortunately led to anti-military groups <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/2369860/derogatory-anti-army-propaganda-denounced">stoking speculation online</a> that the military itself had orchestrated the crash, and that military hardware was more precious than the military officials lost.</p>
<p>The leadership of Khan’s party <a href="https://thenamal.com/national/pti-disowns-twitter-accounts-celebrating-army-helicopter-crash/">denied any connection to the widely circulating anti-military tweets</a>. But within days of this denial, Khan’s chief of staff read a controversial statement on the ARY television network that <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1704141">authorities claim</a> was seditious and amounted to an incitement of mutiny within the armed forces. </p>
<p>The terrorism charges, along with Pakistan’s electronic media regulator <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/21/pakistan-imran-khan-charged-terrorism-arrest/">banning live broadcast of his rallies</a>, show Pakistani authorities are coming down firmly on Khan. They are now attempting to deny Khan the ability to mobilise masses against the judiciary, law enforcement agencies and the military. Time will tell whether this will be successful. But there are ominous signs of impending instability.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189128/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samina Yasmeen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pakistan’s coalition government had been relatively permissive of former prime minister Khan’s mass rallies. But the latest developments suggest this approach has ended.Samina Yasmeen, Director of Centre for Muslim States and Societies, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1812122022-04-13T17:32:16Z2022-04-13T17:32:16ZWhat’s next for Pakistan after Imran Khan’s ouster?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457749/original/file-20220412-14-kpo79w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C22%2C4905%2C3253&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of Imran Khan take to the streets</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-pakistan-tehreek-e-insaf-party-of-dismissed-news-photo/1239898939?adppopup=true">Farooq Naeem/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A protracted political drama in Pakistan turned a page on April 10, 2022, with Prime Minister Imran Khan <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/09/asia/imran-khan-voted-out-pakistan-prime-minister-intl-hnk/index.html">being removed from office following a vote of no confidence</a> in the country’s Parliament.</em></p>
<p><em>He was replaced by opposition leader Shahbaz Sharif. But that is unlikely to be the end of political turmoil in Pakistan, a <a href="https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-o-s/pakistan.aspx">nuclear nation</a> that is home to <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=PK">some 220 million people</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked Pakistani American scholar <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/ayesha-jalal">Ayesha Jalal, professor of history at Tufts University</a>, to explain what is going on in Pakistan.</em></p>
<h2>What is going on in Pakistan?</h2>
<p>After various attempts to stay in power, Imran Khan has finally been voted out. A no-confidence vote was first submitted as a motion by Pakistan’s opposition parties on March 8 but was <a href="https://www.firstpost.com/world/timeline-the-dramatic-events-that-lead-to-imran-khans-fall-from-grace-and-the-dissolution-of-the-pakistan-parliament-10516101.html">delayed repeatedly as Khan tried to cling to power</a>.</p>
<p>On April 3, the National Assembly <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/03/pakistan-prime-minister-imran-khan-unlikely-to-survive-no-confidence-vote-minister-says.html">was supposed to vote</a>. But instead, Khan’s newly appointed law minister made a statement to Parliament alleging a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/03/pakistan-prime-minister-imran-khan-unlikely-to-survive-no-confidence-vote-minister-says.html">foreign conspiracy aimed at dislodging the government</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/03/1090490181/pakistan-imran-khan-parliament-early-elections">accused the opposition of treason</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-religion-ad929acf523850fdb63a5b6dd960f1d2">filed a motion with the deputy speaker to abandon</a> the no-confidence vote. Khan then dissolved the National Assembly and called for early national elections.</p>
<p>Opposition lawmakers lodged a petition challenging Khan’s gambit, and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/04/world/imran-khan-pakistan-news">Supreme Court</a> decided that <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/7/pakistan-court-rules-blocking-vote-to-oust-khan-unconstitutional">blocking the no-confidence vote was unconstitutional</a>.</p>
<p>The vote went ahead on April 10, resulting in 174 members – out of a total of 342 – <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/pak-parliaments-session-begins-to-vote-on-no-trust-motion-against-pm-imran-khan-key-points/articleshow/90740947.cms">supporting the no-confidence motion</a>, resulting in Khan’s removal from power. But that doesn’t end the political mess. More than 100 members of Parliament loyal to Khan have since resigned and walked out of Parliament in protest.</p>
<h2>What prompted the calls for a no-confidence vote?</h2>
<p>The basic charge against Imran Khan <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/25/why-is-pakistans-opposition-seeking-pm-imran-khans-removal">is mismanagement</a>, especially in Punjab – Pakistan’s second-largest province in terms of area and its most populous.</p>
<p>Khan <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/03/world/asia/who-is-imran-khan.html">came to power in 2018</a> promising a “new Pakistan” and an end to the corruption that has for decades been part of Pakistan’s politics. But he has failed to live up to that promise. Khan’s appointed chief minister in Punjab, Usman Buzdar, has been <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/712816-nab-opens-another-corruption-case-against-cm-usman-buzdar">accused of widespread corruption</a>, taking bribes and receiving money in return for making bureaucratic appointments. Even members of Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, party have broken with the prime minister over his backing of the now outgoing Punjab chief minister.</p>
<p>On top of this, Khan has been criticized for his handling of everything <a href="https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2021/mar/26/pakistan-pm-imran-khan-faces-flak-for-holding-in-person-meeting-despite-being-infected-with-covid-2281904.html">from the pandemic</a> to <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3163919/imran-khans-future-doubt-pakistanis-crumble-under-inflations">soaring inflation</a> in the country.</p>
<h2>What do we know about the new prime minister?</h2>
<p>Shahbaz Sharif for a long time had been chief minister of Punjab, and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/11/shahbaz-sharif-the-diligent-administrator-now-pm-of-pakistan">general perception is that he was an effective administrator</a> there. He comes from a political family – his brother <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/24/world/asia/pakistan-nawaz-sharif-sentenced.html">Nawaz Sharif</a> served as prime minister of Pakistan on three separate occasions. And like his brother, who has been <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/25/former-pakistani-pm-sharif-granted-medical-bail-still-in-custody">convicted of corruption</a> and is banned from public office, Shahbaz has faced <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/who-is-shahbaz-sharif-pakistans-new-prime-minister/a-61449480">allegations of cronyism and corruption</a>. But this is not unusual in Pakistani politics, where <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/30/pakistan-anti-corruption-body-arrests-key-opposition-leader">opposition leaders</a> tend to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-politics/key-pakistan-opposition-figures-arrest-political-party-says-idUSKBN26J2GZ">face such charges</a>. Nothing has been proved in court against Shahbaz Sharif.</p>
<p>Sharif has come into office making a number of populist promises, offering relief to hard-pressed Pakistani families, such as a <a href="https://www.geo.tv/latest/410842-shahbaz-announces-in-camera-briefing-on-threat-letter-to-parliament-committee">raise in the minimum wage</a>.</p>
<h2>So what happens next?</h2>
<p>It looks likely that Pakistan will be heading to an election. But before dissolving Parliament – after which, constitutionally, an <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/3/pakistan-parliament-dismisses-no-confidence-motion-against-khan">election has to be held within 90 days</a> – Sharif will likely want to do a number of things including passing a budget and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistans-new-government-facing-severe-economic-challenges-aide-says-2022-04-12/">securing a loan from the International Monetary Fund</a> in a bid to stabilize Pakistan’s economy.</p>
<p>But stability might not be easy if there is further political unrest. And Khan has indicated that <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/defiant-pakistani-pm-calls-street-rallies-support-83966313">he wants to take this to the streets</a>.</p>
<p>So we might have months of political turmoil followed by a bitter election.</p>
<h2>That doesn’t sound good. What’s the worst that could happen?</h2>
<p>The danger is that Khan will not accept an election loss. The now-former prime minister is a superstar with a massive ego and a loyal base of support. You have to remember he was a superstar before he was prime minister, having been the captain of the country’s national cricket team and <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8532802/imran-khan-lothario-prime-minister-nuclear-button/">a global jet-setter</a>. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Imran Khan is a legend to many Pakistanis, and Khan will be trying to mobilize his supporters in street protests.</p>
<p>If he fails to recognize an election defeat and a political crisis becomes a law-and-order issue, the army – never far away from Pakistani politics, and <a href="https://time.com/6163168/imran-khan-army-crisis-pakistan/">seemingly out of patience with Khan</a> – might decide enough is enough and move in.</p>
<p>That said, there is <a href="http://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Democracy-in-Pakistan.pdf">little appetite among the population for a military dictatorship</a>.</p>
<h2>Where does the US come into this?</h2>
<p>Khan has fallen back on a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/on-pakistani-anti-americanism/">tried-and-tested tactic</a> in Pakistani politics: Blame the United States.</p>
<p>He claims to have been unseated by a <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/imran-khan-blames-foreign-conspiracy-oust-faces-toughest-political/">foreign conspiracy aimed at forcing him from power</a>. And it is America, Khan says, that was really behind the no-confidence motion filed by opposition lawmakers.</p>
<p>He accused U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu of being <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/pakistan-pm-imran-khan-claims-us-diplomat-involved-conspiracy-topple-govt-1933042-2022-04-03">involved in the plot to overthrow his government</a>, suggesting that Lu had warned Pakistan’s ambassador in Washington that there would be implications if Khan survived the no-confidence vote.</p>
<p>The U.S. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-01/u-s-denies-imran-khan-s-claim-it-wants-him-ousted-in-pakistan">has dismissed this claim</a>, and Khan has offered no evidence to support it. But he is tapping into a popular trope in Pakistan that the U.S. is up to something. <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/on-pakistani-anti-americanism/">Anti-Americanism flies</a> in Pakistan.</p>
<h2>How have relations between the US and Pakistan been of late?</h2>
<p>Khan believed that his <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/what-did-the-pakistani-prime-ministers-visit-with-trump-achieve/">relationship with former President Donald Trump</a> was rather good. But relations chilled under President Joe Biden. Khan was <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/12/pakistan-imran-khan-afghanistan-mess-taliban">critical of the Biden administration</a> over the pullout of U.S. troops from neighboring Afghanistan. The Pakistani prime minister has meanwhile found it convenient to frame himself as someone <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-19855642">long opposed to America’s drone program</a>, which targeted purported terrorist sites in the northeast of the country <a href="https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2012-07-02/pakistan-drone-statistics-visualised">but is responsible for hundreds of civilian deaths</a> in parts of Pakistan.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand key political developments, each week.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=politics&source=inline-politics-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s politics newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>That said, the Pakistani military is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2347797016689220">still overwhelmingly dependent on the U.S.</a>, and as such Pakistan’s generals will want to maintain some semblance of good relations with Washington.</p>
<p>But at the top level in politics it is fair to say relations with the U.S. have not been good – <a href="https://www.thestatesman.com/world/imran-khan-says-pak-endure-terrible-relationship-us-1503007994.html">“terrible” was the word Khan</a> used in a 2021 interview. It wasn’t helped by the perception held by Khan that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/12/13/pakistan-skipped-the-us-summit-for-democracy-why/">his government has been snubbed and ignored</a> by Biden.</p>
<h2>So who is likely to win an election?</h2>
<p>Khan certainly has a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60966758">base of support that is very loyal</a>. But it isn’t clear whether it outweighs that of the other parties put together – and a coalition of opposition parties could gain enough seats to oust Khan in an election. Indeed, Khan never governed with a large mandate – his party <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/imran-khan-s-pti-short-of-majority-in-pakistan-elections-needs-allies-118072700282_1.html">did not win a majority of seats in Parliament and required the support of smaller parties</a>. And his own members have been <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-18/pakistan-pm-khan-pressured-to-quit-as-party-members-desert-him">disavowing him in light of the recent events</a>. I also doubt many people in Pakistan are buying the conspiracy that it was the U.S. that toppled him.</p>
<p>He will also find it difficult to win Punjab given the mismanagement that he is blamed for there. And without Punjab, you can’t run Pakistan.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: Portions of this article <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-going-on-in-pakistan-and-why-has-the-us-been-dragged-into-it-180731">originally appeared in a previous article</a> published on April 6, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181212/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ayesha Jalal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The former prime minister was forced from office by a vote of no confidence. But that doesn’t mean the political drama is over, an expert on Pakistani politics explains.Ayesha Jalal, Professor of History, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1807312022-04-06T18:44:53Z2022-04-06T18:44:53ZWhat is going on in Pakistan? And why has the US been dragged into it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456417/original/file-20220405-27-3lc91y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3020%2C2015&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Still Pakistan's poster boy? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/activists-and-supporters-of-ruling-pakistan-tehreek-e-insaf-news-photo/1239543944?adppopup=true">Farooq Naeem/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Pakistan, a <a href="https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-o-s/pakistan.aspx">nuclear nation</a> that is home to <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=PK">some 220 million people</a>, is in a political mess.</em> </p>
<p><em>On April 3, 2022, Prime Minister – and former <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzA9TTH4on4">national sporting hero</a> – Imran Khan <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/03/world/imran-khan-pakistan.html">dissolved Parliament</a> to get ahead of a no-confidence vote. That vote would have seen parliamentarians decide whether or not to support Khan’s premiership and would have likely seen him ousted from power.</em></p>
<p><em>What happens next is <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60978582">in the hands of the country’s Supreme Court</a> and, after that, the nation’s voters. The Conversation asked Pakistani American scholar <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/ayesha-jalal">Ayesha Jalal, professor of history at Tufts University</a>, to help explain what is going on – and what could happen next.</em></p>
<h2>What just happened in Pakistan?</h2>
<p>A no-confidence vote, first submitted as a motion by Pakistan’s opposition parties on March 8, was supposed to take place. But it was <a href="https://www.firstpost.com/world/timeline-the-dramatic-events-that-lead-to-imran-khans-fall-from-grace-and-the-dissolution-of-the-pakistan-parliament-10516101.html">delayed repeatedly as Khan tried to cling to power</a>.</p>
<p>Finally on April 3, the National Assembly <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/03/pakistan-prime-minister-imran-khan-unlikely-to-survive-no-confidence-vote-minister-says.html">was supposed to vote</a>. Instead, Khan’s newly appointed law minister made a statement to Parliament alleging a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/03/pakistan-prime-minister-imran-khan-unlikely-to-survive-no-confidence-vote-minister-says.html">foreign conspiracy aimed at dislodging the government</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/03/1090490181/pakistan-imran-khan-parliament-early-elections">accused the opposition of treason</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-religion-ad929acf523850fdb63a5b6dd960f1d2">filed a motion with the deputy speaker to abandon</a> the no-confidence vote. Khan then dissolved the National Assembly and called for early national elections.</p>
<p>There is no precedent for any of this in Pakistan, and it goes against the normal democratic process. Opposition lawmakers lodged a petition challenging Khan’s gambit, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/04/world/imran-khan-pakistan-news">now it is up to the Supreme Court</a> to decide.</p>
<p>In short, Pakistan has been thrown into a serious constitutional crisis. </p>
<h2>What prompted the calls for a no-confidence vote?</h2>
<p>The basic charge against Imran Khan <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/25/why-is-pakistans-opposition-seeking-pm-imran-khans-removal">is mismanagement</a>, especially in Punjab – Pakistan’s second-largest province in terms of area and its most populous.</p>
<p>Khan <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/03/world/asia/who-is-imran-khan.html">came to power in 2018</a> promising a “new Pakistan” and an end to the corruption that has for decades been part of Pakistan’s politics. But he has failed to live up to that promise. Khan’s appointed chief minister in Punjab, Usman Buzdar, has been <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/712816-nab-opens-another-corruption-case-against-cm-usman-buzdar">accused of widespread corruption</a>, taking bribes and receiving money in return for making bureaucratic appointments. Even members of Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party have broken with the prime minister over his backing of the now outgoing Punjab chief minister.</p>
<p>On top of this, Khan has been criticized for his handling of everything <a href="https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2021/mar/26/pakistan-pm-imran-khan-faces-flak-for-holding-in-person-meeting-despite-being-infected-with-covid-2281904.html">from the pandemic</a> to <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3163919/imran-khans-future-doubt-pakistanis-crumble-under-inflations">soaring inflation</a> in the country.</p>
<h2>Where does the US come into this?</h2>
<p>With his position as prime minister under threat, Khan has fallen back on a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/on-pakistani-anti-americanism/">tried-and-tested tactic</a> in Pakistani politics: Blame the United States.</p>
<p>Khan’s new narrative is that there is a <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/imran-khan-blames-foreign-conspiracy-oust-faces-toughest-political/">foreign conspiracy to oust him from power</a>. And it is America, Khan says, that is really behind the no-confidence motion filed by opposition lawmakers.</p>
<p>He has accused U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu of being <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/pakistan-pm-imran-khan-claims-us-diplomat-involved-conspiracy-topple-govt-1933042-2022-04-03">involved in the plot to overthrow his government</a>, suggesting that Lu had warned Pakistan’s ambassador in Washington that there would be implications if Khan survived the no-confidence vote.</p>
<p>The U.S. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-01/u-s-denies-imran-khan-s-claim-it-wants-him-ousted-in-pakistan">has dismissed this claim</a>, and Khan has offered no evidence to support it. But he is tapping into a popular trope in Pakistan that the U.S. is up to something. <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/on-pakistani-anti-americanism/">Anti-Americanism flies</a> in Pakistan. So Khan is playing to a well-embedded narrative in pointing a finger at Washington.</p>
<h2>How have relations between the US and Pakistan been of late?</h2>
<p>Khan believed that his <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/what-did-the-pakistani-prime-ministers-visit-with-trump-achieve/">relationship with former President Donald Trump</a> was rather good. But relations have certainly chilled under President Joe Biden. Khan was <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/12/pakistan-imran-khan-afghanistan-mess-taliban">critical of the Biden administration</a> over the pullout of U.S. troops from neighboring Afghanistan. The Pakistani prime minister has meanwhile found it convenient to frame himself as someone <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-19855642">long opposed to America’s drone program</a>, which targeted purported terrorist sites in the northeast of the country <a href="https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2012-07-02/pakistan-drone-statistics-visualised">but is responsible for hundreds of civilian deaths</a> in parts of Pakistan.</p>
<p>That said, the Pakistani military is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2347797016689220">still overwhelmingly dependent on the U.S.</a>, and as such Pakistan’s generals will want to maintain some semblance of good relations with Washington.</p>
<p>But at the top level in politics it is fair to say relations with the U.S. are not good – “<a href="https://www.thestatesman.com/world/imran-khan-says-pak-endure-terrible-relationship-us-1503007994.html">terrible” was the word Khan</a> used in a 2021 interview. It hasn’t been helped by the perception held by Khan that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/12/13/pakistan-skipped-the-us-summit-for-democracy-why/">his government has been snubbed and ignored</a> by Biden.</p>
<h2>Sounds like Khan has a bruised ego?</h2>
<p>Khan is a superstar with a massive ego. You have to remember he was a superstar before he was prime minister, having been the captain of the country’s national cricket team and <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8532802/imran-khan-lothario-prime-minister-nuclear-button/">a global jet-setter</a>. It’s not over the top to say that Imran Khan is a legend to many Pakistanis.</p>
<p>He will be hoping that this star power might serve him well in any upcoming election.</p>
<h2>Will it?</h2>
<p>He certainly has a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60966758">support base that is very loyal</a>. But it isn’t clear whether it outweighs that of the other parties put together – and a coalition of opposition parties could gain enough seats to oust Khan in an election. Indeed, Khan has only ever governed with a very small mandate – his party <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/imran-khan-s-pti-short-of-majority-in-pakistan-elections-needs-allies-118072700282_1.html">did not win a majority of seats in parliament and required the support of smaller parties</a>. And his own members have been <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-18/pakistan-pm-khan-pressured-to-quit-as-party-members-desert-him">disavowing him in light of the recent events</a>. I also doubt many people in Pakistan are buying the conspiracy about the U.S. trying to topple him.</p>
<p>He will also find it difficult to win Punjab given the mismanagement that he is blamed for there. And without Punjab, you can’t run Pakistan.</p>
<h2>So what happens next?</h2>
<p>You never know with Pakistan’s politics – anything is possible. After all, <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/explainer/report-dna-explainer-no-pakistan-pm-has-completed-5-year-term-in-75-years-here-s-why-2943893">it is very rare for governments in Pakistan to complete a full term</a>. But no matter what the Supreme Court decides about the no-confidence vote, it does look set that Pakistan will be heading to an election in the next 90 days.</p>
<p>It will be a bitter, bitter election – and held in the middle of Pakistan’s hot summer. Uncertainty, politicking and potential unrest could dominate the next few months.</p>
<h2>That doesn’t sound good. What’s the worst that could happen?</h2>
<p>The danger is that Khan will not accept an election loss and take his fight to supporters in the streets. If a political crisis becomes a law-and-order issue, the army – never far away from Pakistani politics, and <a href="https://time.com/6163168/imran-khan-army-crisis-pakistan/">seemingly losing patience with Khan</a> – might decide enough is enough and move in.</p>
<p>That said, there is <a href="http://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Democracy-in-Pakistan.pdf">little appetite among the population for a military dictatorship</a>.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ayesha Jalal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan dissolved Parliament rather than face a no-confidence vote. The Conversation asked an expert: What happens next?Ayesha Jalal, Professor of History, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1805282022-04-04T14:59:42Z2022-04-04T14:59:42ZPakistan: extra time for Imran Khan as parliament rejects no-confidence vote<p>Pakistan’s parliament has been <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/03/pakistan-parliament-president-khan-00022560">dissolved</a> by its president Arif Alv, after a vote of no confidence in prime minister <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-60972186">Imran Khan</a> did not go ahead. Elections are likely to follow and the question of who will lead Pakistan into its 76th year remains uncertain. </p>
<p>High drama continues after a week of political theatrics which saw the embattled prime minister take to live television to claim a foreign plot planned to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/31/imran-khan-address-pakistan-faces-no-confidence-vote">overthrow him</a>.</p>
<p>While Khan may have lost his majority in the <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220403-pakistan-pm-faces-dismissal-as-parliament-sits-for-no-confidence-vote">national assembly</a>, he still retains popular support among the people. So, if fresh elections are called he may still have a chance to cling to power. But in a country where violence is never far away, continued political instability may well turn to anger on the streets. After the dissolution of parliament, security was increased around government buildings and across the capital, Islamabad. </p>
<p>No prime minister of Pakistan has ever completed a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/25/no-one-has-ever-completed-a-term-as-pakistans-pm/">full term</a> and, over the 75 years of its existence, Pakistan has failed to establish stable and effective <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1162/01636600260046271?casa_token=VhQYiRBOY48AAAAA:IUFnz7WuPaiNzg6jGP86JwZhR3K_mKqM7DaniBOwtN9Ff36B6usKoufnPeKSwnCYqDNpeov2TSo5">political</a> institutions. </p>
<p>To table the motion of no confidence in the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government, opposition parties <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/imran-khan-pakistan-noconfidence-vote-b2047187.html">united</a>, believing they had garnered enough votes in the country’s national assembly to oust Khan. The military, a key player in the country’s politics – and crucial in bringing Khan to power in the first place – had appeared to cool towards him, further bolstering the opposition. The alliance cited economic <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/31/pakistan-pm-imran-khan-defiant-before-no-confidence-vote">mismanagement and political incompetence</a>.</p>
<p>On the day that the confidence debate began in parliament, Khan <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/31/imran-khan-address-pakistan-faces-no-confidence-vote">addressed the nation</a>, claiming the United States was trying to get rid of him. The opposition was working under its directive, he said. The US government has dismissed allegations of <a href="https://www.geo.tv/latest/408529-us-government-denies-involvement-in-no-trust-motion-against-pm">involvement</a>.</p>
<h2>Khan’s heroic past</h2>
<p>Imran Khan was the nation’s cricketing hero when he came to power in 2018. But he was a political outsider. In a country where dynasty politics had been the order of play since soon after its inception, Khan vowed to tackle corruption, cronyism and nepotism and clean up politics. He also promised to build a stronger economy which is less dependent on foreign aid and intervention. His ambition was not for fame or adulation, he claimed, that was his already. Instead, he wanted to build a “<a href="https://www.insaf.pk/content/manifesto"><em>naya</em> Pakistan</a>” (new Pakistan), with plans to alleviate poverty and create a welfare state.</p>
<p>Four years later, in the middle of a global economic crisis, Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index has recorded general inflation in double digits. Data from the <a href="https://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files//price_statistics/monthly_price_indices/nb/2022/cpi_monthly_review_march_2022.pdf">Pakistan bureau of statistics</a>’ monthly review shows the extent of month-on-month price rises on everyday items. In March 2022, for example, the price of chicken had increased by 33%, fruits by 15%, onions 7% and cooking oil 5%, compared with the previous month. Year-on-year inflation shows price rise of some food items in triple figures, with the cost of tomatoes up by 149%, cooking oil 48% and pulses up by 37%. In a country where a quarter of the population lives below the <a href="https://www.adb.org/countries/pakistan/poverty">national poverty line</a>, the capacity to absorb such hikes is between limited and impossible.</p>
<h2>Years of military control</h2>
<p>In the 75 years since its creation in 1947, Pakistan has witnessed a cycle of transitions between military and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636410802099022?casa_token=SwMBJyHakAgAAAAA%3Atluzwu_tsrxeUfxHVbJVGuaGvzcIaKuupZzt06ghqGPY23p5V6LIFHUVu1HPdVXg_aZo1umxZapi">civilian rule</a>. There have been three successful military coups: in 1958 (General Ayub Khan), in 1977 (General Zia-ul-Haq) and in 1999 (General Pervez Musharraf), creating decades of military rule and martial law. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636410802099022?casa_token=b2bV_P88fhEAAAAA%3AScmdXNHFVbvkTifXpZZzpv6dGdEKiauPqZqnZ1Y4oSE24ZEQvYXZRqIATMYiWjPILBXuZRkytBhq">military</a> remains the country’s most cohesive national institution. Since independence it has oscillated between indirect and direct political control, always maintaining significant power and providing alternative political leadership in times of crisis. Military backing also helped bring Khan to power.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-pakistan-stands-to-gain-or-lose-from-the-talibans-victory-in-afghanistan-166414">How Pakistan stands to gain — or lose — from the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan</a>
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<p>The country’s two main opposition parties, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League (PMLN) are run by Pakistan’s two key political dynasties. Many saw <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/imran-khan-no-confidence-vote-shahbaz-sharif-pakistan-b2049515.html">Shehbaz Sharif</a>, the brother of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, as the next premier if the no-confidence vote went ahead. </p>
<p>Sharif now <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/947215-democracy-damaged-shehbaz">claims</a> that Article 5, which was used by parliament to reject the vote, had been misinterpreted, and has called for Khan to be charged with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-pakistan-politics-idUKKCN2LV03D">high treason</a>. PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, whose mother and father both served as prime minister, has also dismissed the decision yesterday, calling it unconstitutional.</p>
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<p>Both the PPP and the PMLN see Khan’s term in office as an aberration. If Khan had sought to end dynastic rule, the very fact that Shehbaz Sharif, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and Asif Zardari played a key part in setting the no-confidence vote in motion in the first place, is testimony to the endurance of the Sharif and the Bhutto-Zardari families.</p>
<p>Politics in Pakistan is a dangerous game. Numerous political leaders have been killed or assassinated. In 1951, the country’s first prime minister, Liaquat Ali Khan, was shot dead. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who served as the country’s ninth prime minister and founded the PPP, was charged with murder and executed after a state trial. His daughter Benazir, who served as Pakistan’s 11th and 13th prime minister and was the country’s first female head of state, was assassinated by the Pakistan Taliban in 2007. Imran Khan may not get to complete a full term in office but he has survived it, at least for now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180528/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Parveen Akhtar has previously received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council and the British Academy.</span></em></p>Pakistan is in the middle of a constitutional crisis as a bid to unseat Imran Khan failed.Parveen Akhtar, Lecturer in Political Science, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1771742022-03-03T11:34:21Z2022-03-03T11:34:21ZPakistan again faces questions over ‘honour’ killings as brother acquitted of social media star’s murder<p>The prevalence of <a href="https://theconversation.com/violence-in-the-name-of-honour-is-a-public-health-problem-not-a-cultural-one-70182">so-called “honour” killings</a> in Pakistan has increasingly been the subject of national debate. The perpetrators are husbands, fathers, sons, brothers, uncles, cousins, and in some cases, strangers hired by the victims’ families. And the reasons they give for their crimes include the women or girls having sexual relationships (actual or alleged), having a boyfriend, marrying without family consent, failing to prove virginity on their wedding night, being a victim of rape, leaving an abusive husband, using a mobile phone or posting a picture on Facebook. </p>
<p>After social media star <a href="https://theconversation.com/qandeel-baloch-stricter-pakistani-laws-have-not-deterred-honour-killings-62873">Qandeel Baloch</a> was murdered by her brother, Waseem Khan, in July 2016, a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/06/asia/pakistan-anti-honor-killing-law/index.html">landmark piece of legislation</a> was passed. The 2016 Criminal Law (Amendment) (Offences in the name or pretext of Honour) Act was widely opposed by the country’s influential clerics for being <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/pakistani-parliament-passes-landmark-anti-honor-killing-bill/a-35983522">“anti-Islamic”</a>. The bill was nonetheless welcomed by the public and considered a step in the right direction.</p>
<p>In February 2022, however, a mere three years after Khan was convicted, the high court of Pakistan <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60388111">ordered his acquittal</a>. This has shocked the activists and public figures who have campaigned for justice for Baloch and marks a significant step backwards. </p>
<p>As my research shows, violence against women and girls, including murders in the name of honour, continues to be a <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/2333205/20-rise-in-honour-killings-recorded">problem</a>. And the new 2016 law appears to have had little effect: ineffective implementation of that legislation and the resulting flawed trials have created a culture of impunity.</p>
<h2>Flawed trials</h2>
<p>The 2016 amendment mandates life imprisonment for those who kill women in the name of “honour”. It states that even if the victim’s parents pardon the killer, the murderer has to go to prison for 12 years. As Khan’s case demonstrates, however, there are loopholes that can be exploited. </p>
<p>Baloch was drugged and strangled to death at her family home in Multan in July 2016. Khan publicly confessed to the murder, citing the videos and photographs she had posted on social media as having brought dishonour to their family, and was subsequently sentenced to life imprisonment. </p>
<p>However, his lawyers used what is known as the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26899443">Qisas and Diyat law</a> to circumvent the new legislation. This legal mechanism allows victims’ families to voluntarily pardon or accept financial compensation from the perpetrators, which translates into a judicial acquittal. </p>
<p>Previous cases have had similarly concerning outcomes. On February 15, 2019 Sana Cheema’s father, brother and uncle <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47257309">were acquitted</a> by a Pakistani court. A district court judge acquitted the accused by declaring that there was a lack of “certain evidence”. Cheema, an Italian citizen, died in 2018 while visiting her family. It was reported in the Pakistani media that the police had alleged that the suspects had confessed to, and then retracted, an honour killing. </p>
<p>My <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-55985-4_17">analysis</a> of the reports published by the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan shows that, between 2004 and 2016, 15,222 honour killings – 1,170 every year; 22 per week – were recorded. More recent statistics show that the problem persists. In 2021, 128 women <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/930710-karo-kari-claimed-176-lives-in-sindh-in-2021-study">were killed</a> in Sindh province, in the name of honour. And in <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/931530-in-the-name-of-honour-in-six-months-2-439-women-raped-9-529-kidnapped-90-killed-in-punjab">Punjab province</a>, between July and December 2021, 90 women were killed, 2,439 were raped and 9,529 women were kidnapped. </p>
<p>Nationwide, the numbers are likely much higher. <a href="https://shura.shu.ac.uk/7287/1/KARO_KARI_-THE_MURDER_OF_HONOUR_IN_SINDH_PAKISTAN_AN_ETHNOGRAPHIC_STUDY.pdf">Research shows</a> that honour killings are primarily perpetrated by family members and that as a result, people do not come forward to report incidents. Such disputes are instead settled outside of the court system. Further, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22338414/">in some segments</a> of society there is a level of support for the perpetrators: the criminality of these murders is not recognised within the social and cultural contexts in which they occur. </p>
<h2>Leadership failures</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2gFbFH0IdA">2020 interview</a>, prime minister Imran Khan <a href="https://images.dawn.com/news/1186134">criticised</a> the fact that Pakistanis are increasingly adopting what he called the “immoral mannerisms” of the west, saying that they are “chipping away at our traditional familial values and norms”. He has been preaching that Pakistan’s strength is its moral family system, which western values, promoted through Hollywood films, have negatively influenced. He pointed to rising divorce rates in Pakistan, which he said were following trends noted abroad, as an example of this negative influence.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/publication/documents/2019-07/economic-social-costs-violence-women-girls-pakistan-2019.pdf">Research</a> however shows that in Pakistan, the home is in fact a dangerous place for women. About 27% of women over the age of 15 report having experienced physical abuse inside their homes. Sexual violence, in particular, against women and girls <a href="https://www.ssdo.org.pk/_files/ugd/5668b5_a54565b5b5184139a93c7d4aa8869ba4.pdf">continues</a> to be a problem. </p>
<p>Despite this evidence, Khan blames the victims. In a 2021 interview, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/imran-khan-interview-womens-clothes-sexual-violence-b1869777.html">he said</a>, “Men are not robots, ladies wearing small clothes impact them,” thereby subscribing to a view long refuted by a significant body of research that shows that sexual violence is a consequence of perpetrators <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00338/full">dehumanising female bodies</a>. </p>
<p>To address violence against women and girls, in the name of honour or otherwise, we need stricter laws, thorough police training and better support structures for survivors of domestic abuse. But that will not be enough to stop it. </p>
<p>In the same way that the Hindu practice of <a href="https://airccse.com/ijhas/papers/1216ijhas08.pdf">sati</a> (conjugal self-immolation) in India and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2096305">foot binding</a> in China were outlawed through local movements, Pakistani society needs to change from within to alter the social structures and narratives that enable honour killings. The councils – village, tribal, and elders – that condone these crimes and settle the disputes that trigger them must be dismantled. Crucially, leadership at a national level is vital. Public figures who wield the kind of influence Khan does are able to make a massive difference by promoting women’s rights, if they choose to do so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sadiq Bhanbhro does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite confessing to the murder of his sister, Qandeel Baloch in 2016, Waseem Khan has been acquitted by the Lahore High Court. The case has shocked activists campaigning against honour killings.Sadiq Bhanbhro, Senior Research Fellow on Public Health and Gender-Based Violence, Sheffield Hallam UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1664142021-08-25T01:31:36Z2021-08-25T01:31:36ZHow Pakistan stands to gain — or lose — from the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417544/original/file-20210824-15-12derhz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=58%2C7%2C2288%2C1748&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jafar Khan/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pakistan has long played a critical, yet confusing role in Afghanistan. It has been one of the strongest US allies in its “war on terror”, yet it has also covertly backed the Taliban in its fight against US-led forces for years. </p>
<p>The paradox remained visible after the Taliban swept into Kabul last week.</p>
<p>Pakistan’s official response by its foreign minister was hope for a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan through an inclusive, transition government following <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEBPWSoUdMI&ab_channel=BOLNews">broad-based consultations</a> with all ethnic groups and stakeholders. </p>
<p>Moreover, in a televised address, Pakistan’s army chief urged the Taliban leaders to fulfil their promise to the international community regarding <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shJzH482xSQ&ab_channel=GeoNews">respect for women’s rights and human rights</a></p>
<p>Both statements align with America’s aspirations. But in contrast, Prime Minister Imran Khan declared that Afghans had broken “<a href="https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2021/aug/16/afghans-have-broken-shackles-of-slavery-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-2345451.html">the shackles of slavery</a>”, which seems to mock the US establishment.</p>
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<h2>How regional powers are responding</h2>
<p>Despite this mixed messaging from Pakistani leaders, a coordinated regional response to the Taliban takeover appears to be shaping up. </p>
<p>As western countries hold back from <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/20/us-allies-taliban-un-linda-thomas-greenfield-506380">recognising the new government</a>, the regional powers of Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan have kept their <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/russia-china-iran-pakistan-extend-hands-taliban-now-control-afghanistan-1620335">embassies</a> open in Kabul and expressed their willingness to work with the Taliban.</p>
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<p>According to a senior security journalist I spoke with in Pakistan, both Russia and Iran supported the Taliban fight against the US-sponsored Afghanistan government to contain the threat from the <a href="https://ing.org/an-overview-of-isis/">Islamic State</a>. </p>
<p>Iran’s influence on the Taliban can be gauged by the fact the group’s leadership participated in the Shia’ Majlis (a religious council delivering sermons) in Kabul after its takeover, which is highly unusual for the extremist Sunni Taliban.</p>
<p>Moreover, Iran and Russia have been so involved in Afghanistan and the politics of the Taliban that when then-President Donald Trump cancelled a planned meeting with Taliban leaders in late 2019, the group reacted by going to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban-idUSKCN1VZ034">both countries</a> to get advice from their leaders on how to respond.</p>
<p>Overall, the strategies of these regional powers will greatly influence the politics in Afghanistan in the coming days — but it’s Pakistan that likely has the greatest sway over the Taliban leaders.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/afghanistan-western-powers-must-accept-defeat-and-deal-realistically-with-the-taliban-166588">Afghanistan: western powers must accept defeat and deal realistically with the Taliban</a>
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<h2>A brief history of Pakistan’s support for the Taliban</h2>
<p>Pakistan has provided political and military support for different factions within Afghanistan since the early 1970s. During the 1980s, Pakistan was a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4328240">major backer of the Afghan mujahideen</a> (holy warriors) fighting against the Soviet invasion and hosted <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/06/afghanistan-refugees-forty-years/#:%7E:text=By%2520the%2520end%2520of%25201980,world's%2520largest%2520protracted%2520refugee%2520population.">millions</a> Afghan refugees fleeing the war. </p>
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<img alt="Afghan mujahideen during the Soviet-Afghan War in 1987." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417548/original/file-20210824-15-10jd20z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417548/original/file-20210824-15-10jd20z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417548/original/file-20210824-15-10jd20z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417548/original/file-20210824-15-10jd20z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417548/original/file-20210824-15-10jd20z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417548/original/file-20210824-15-10jd20z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417548/original/file-20210824-15-10jd20z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Afghan mujahideen during the Soviet-Afghan War in 1987.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
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<p>Pakistan was also a major ally of the US at this time. The US channelled some <a href="https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/afghan2/Afghan0701-02.htm">US$2-3 billion (A$2.7-4.1 billion) worth of covert assistance through Pakistan</a> to the mujahideen, training over 80,000 of the fighters.</p>
<p>Even after the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989, Pakistani military officers continued to provide training and guidance to the mujahideen and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/08/24/pakistans-problematic-victory-in-afghanistan/">eventually to Taliban forces</a> to combat their enemies. </p>
<p>In addition, senior members of Pakistan’s intelligence agency and army are accused of <a href="https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/afghan2/Afghan0701-02.htm#P394_108385">helping the Taliban plan</a> major military operations against the government during the Afghan civil war in the 1990s. Pakistani support for the group attracted widespread international criticism, including from <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/central-asia-irin-news-briefs-01-december">then-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan</a>, who called it “deeply distressing”.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-afghanistan-falls-what-does-it-mean-for-the-middle-east-166169">As Afghanistan falls, what does it mean for the Middle East?</a>
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<p>Pakistan was then just one of three countries to officially recognise the new Taliban government when it took power in 1996.</p>
<p>General Hamid Gul, a former head of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), acknowledged in 2014 that Pakistan even used US aid to continue funding the Taliban after the September 11 terror attacks.</p>
<p>He <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-07-22/pakistans-pyrrhic-victory-afghanistan">told a television audience</a>, </p>
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<p>When history is written, it will be stated that the ISI defeated the Soviet Union in Afghanistan with the help of America. Then there will be another sentence. The ISI, with the help of America, defeated America.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1427201915973083145"}"></div></p>
<p>Pakistan is still likely to provide covert political and logistic support to the new Taliban leaders in Afghanistan today. </p>
<p>In the past, the Taliban leadership had <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/caa/3/3/article-p249_3.xml">three consultative councils</a>, known as shuras, based in Pakistan. At least one of these shuras, based in Quetta, still probably seems to be <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58235639">operating from Pakistan</a>. </p>
<p>The Taliban also operated in the country throughout the American occupation in Afghanistan, even though the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/16/pakistan-air-support-afghanistan-taliban">Pakistan government denies supporting the group</a> and denies the existence of the Quetta shura. </p>
<p>Given this history, it’s no wonder many people around the world are blaming Pakistan for the Taliban’s recent military success, reflected in the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/11/sanction-pakistan-twitter-trend-afghanistan-taliban">#SanctionPakistan campaign on Twitter</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-taliban-surges-across-afghanistan-al-qaeda-is-poised-for-a-swift-return-164314">As the Taliban surges across Afghanistan, al-Qaeda is poised for a swift return</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>What does Pakistan stand to gain or lose?</h2>
<p>Pakistan’s biggest gain is that India will lose its influence in Afghanistan, which was seen as a threat to Pakistan’s security. The Taliban takeover also allows Pakistan to boost its bilateral trade with Afghanistan and provides an unrestricted trade route to the countries of central Asia.</p>
<p>However, Pakistan can lose from the Taliban’s ascendancy, as well. If the Taliban fails to ensure stability, this can trigger another wave of refugees crossing the border. The Taliban’s takeover could also <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/18/taliban-afghanistan-pakistan-jihadis-al-qaeda-terrorism-extremism/">embolden domestic terror groups</a> within Pakistan.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1429453821877571585"}"></div></p>
<p>As a result, Taliban rule in Afghanistan could have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/17/pakistan-divided-over-success-of-taliban-in-afghanistan">adverse security repercussions</a> for Pakistan, particularly with regard to the Pakistani Taliban (TTP). The TTP considers the takeover of Afghanistan by its Afghan counterparts a significant ideological victory.</p>
<p>The TTP has launched several violent attacks in Pakistan over the years, including an attack on a school in Peshawar in 2014 that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Peshawar_school_massacre">killed more than 150 people, mostly children</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Candlelight vigil for the victims of a school attack." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417549/original/file-20210824-17-1sow12p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417549/original/file-20210824-17-1sow12p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417549/original/file-20210824-17-1sow12p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417549/original/file-20210824-17-1sow12p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417549/original/file-20210824-17-1sow12p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417549/original/file-20210824-17-1sow12p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417549/original/file-20210824-17-1sow12p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A candlelight vigil for the victims of a school attacked by the Taliban in Peshawar in 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Anjum Naveed/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some of the TTP’s leaders were also <a href="https://twitter.com/SaleemMehsud/status/1427080535873048582">reportedly freed</a> from prisons by Afghan Taliban fighters in recent days.</p>
<p>As a former member of Pakistan’s parliament <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/fa2d08a3-6e5e-4d3d-b742-db4145809f8d">told the Financial Times</a>, “a stable Afghanistan will work in Pakistan’s favour”. </p>
<p>The key to creating peace and stability in Afghanistan will be Pakistan’s strategic cooperation with all of the regional powers, as well as the US. Such cooperation, however, may be a challenge to achieve, given the competing interests that have long torn this country apart.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Muhammad Nadeem Malik does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pakistan covertly backed the Taliban in Afghanistan for years. But if the Taliban fail to ensure stability now, it could trigger another wave of refugees into Pakistan or more insurgent attacks.Muhammad Nadeem Malik, Senior Lecturer, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1587172021-04-13T15:17:29Z2021-04-13T15:17:29ZPakistan: Imran Khan, sexual violence comments and the women who are fighting back<p>Imran Khan, the prime minister of Pakistan, has caused an uproar with remarks about sexual violence, attributing the rising number of reports of rape in Pakistan to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/world/asia/pakistan-rape.html">“vulgarity” and the way women dress</a>. His words prompted outrage among women’s groups, who are advocating for greater equality in a nation which recently ranked 153rd out of 156 countries for gender parity in the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-gender-gap-report-2021">Global Gender Gap report</a> by the World Economic Forum and seventh out of the eight countries in the south Asian region. </p>
<p>To understand Khan’s comments we have to look at them in the context of internal and international politics. On sexual violence, the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-gender-gap-report-2021/in-full/economy-profiles">report discloses</a> that 85% women in Pakistan have experienced “<a href="https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-gender-gap-report-2021/in-full/gggr2-benchmarking-gender-gaps-findings-from-the-global-gender-gap-index-2021">intimate partner violence</a>”. The figures reinforce the reality that sexual violence happens inside homes, as much as, if not more than, outside. But familial power structures are such that perpetrators often remain unpunished despite changes to the law. </p>
<p>More specifically, the statistics draw attention to women’s exclusions from education, income and ownership of land. Despite his recent comments, which have drawn criticism for victim-blaming, Khan has introduced <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/3/11/when-will-there-be-justice-for-pakistans-victims-of-child-abuse">new legislation</a> in response to two prominent cases reported extensively in the media. The rape and murder of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45885686">six-year-old Zainab Ansari</a> in Kasur in 2018 and the Lahore <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/713691-rape-cases-on-the-rise">motorway gang rape</a> of a woman in front of her children in 2020 caused an outpouring of public anger, grief and outrage. There were also concerns over what appeared to be <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1582117">prejudicial attitudes</a> towards women on the part of the police.</p>
<p>Pakistan’s parliament reacted with a law imposing a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/pakistan-passes-law-against-child-abuse-in-wake-of-zainab-ansari-case">penalty of life imprisonment</a> for child abuse and an <a href="https://redactionpolitics.com/2021/03/31/chemical-castration-pakistan-sexual-violence-crisis/">anti-rape law</a> establishing a sex offender’s register in Pakistan for the first time and imposing chemical castration on serial offenders.</p>
<h2>Looking east</h2>
<p>But Khan’s commentary on women’s dress and the modesty of purdah (the practice of keeping women in seclusion) has reignited a debate over westernisation in the Islamic republic. In the current global climate, as alliances are shifting, there is a rising anti-western sentiment and many feel Pakistan needs to break free from an over-reliance on the International Monetary Fund by continuing to move closer to China and the Middle East through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and foreign remittances. </p>
<p>Pakistan is a key part of the China-driven BRI – referred to as a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/ng-interactive/2018/jul/30/what-china-belt-road-initiative-silk-road-explainer">21st-century Silk road</a> that will transform global power across Asia, Africa and Europe. As the west becomes more antagonistic toward China, Pakistan has <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/pakistan-learns-cost-of-economic-alliance-with-china/">drawn closer</a> to its biggest benefactor in terms of infrastructure development. This is also reflected in the global vaccination programme – Pakistan has sourced vaccines from <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-pakistan-vaccine-e-idUSKBN2BF20I">China</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-pakistan-vaccine-idUSKBN2A90WE">Russia</a> (as well as from the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/pakistan-india-vaccine-astrazeneca-b1815111.html">UK-Swedish firm AstraZeneca</a>). </p>
<p>Khan is also an <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/turkey-pakistan-entente-muslim-middle-powers-align-eurasia">admirer of Turkey’s president</a>, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and shares his critique of a secular west that they view as insensitive to Muslims. </p>
<p>As part of his cultural strategy, <a href="https://www.himalmag.com/from-bin-qasim-to-ertugrul-2020/">Khan has imported</a> the blockbuster Turkish drama series Diriliş: Ertuğrul into Pakistan to inculcate a love of Islamic history and heroes in a bid to move away from a Hollywood/Bollywood culture of films.</p>
<p>Previously Khan has noted that family is the backbone of Pakistani society and the one advantage that Pakistan has as an Eastern nation. He blames the breakdown of family and societal values on <a href="https://5pillarsuk.com/2021/04/10/imran-khan-blames-westernised-culture-for-break-down-of-society/">westernisation and immoral media content</a>. </p>
<p>His identification of women as representatives of an eastern authenticity chimes with the view of Pakistan’s conservative right-wing and is a strategy that has been used by Islamist parties to reject modernity.</p>
<h2>Women on the march</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, the activist-led <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51748152">Aurat Women’s March</a> campaign advocating for women’s rights in Pakistan has sent out a consistent and unwavering protest message since 2018. Using the slogan “<em>mera jism, meri marzi</em>” (my body, my choice) the campaign aims to encourage women to take ownership of their bodies and culminates in a march on International Women’s Day (March 8).</p>
<p>These slogans have upset those with orthodox views leading to death threats, surveillance and trolling. Activists are seen as a secular problem by the religious right and the demand for women’s rights is often associated with a western-style modernity. This year further controversy over the marchers was ignited over social media through an alleged blasphemy charge refuted by the organisers. </p>
<p>The protesters have come together to speak out against sexual violence and harassment in everyday life, which has increased as women’s share of the urban workforce has significantly gone up. Their activism speaks to a new wave of feminism in Pakistan demanding structural change and inclusivity in a gendered struggle against misogyny.</p>
<p>Thus disagreements over dress and language deflect attention from the real cause of sexual violence: shame and familial power working in tandem with caste and class hierarchies that normalise sexual violence.</p>
<h2>Khan’s populism</h2>
<p>Khan’s commentary has once again shown the populist leadership style he relies on to garner voter acceptability and appease the right. By linking purdah and sexual violence he is able to reinforce stereotypical representations of eastern women as women who should be pious and purdah observant in contrast to westernised women. </p>
<p>His deliberate anti-feminist stance projects purdah as the glue that binds Pakistani society. The question that remains is, how does Khan plan to change the future of women and girls and build gender parity? The Global Gender Gap report <a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GGGR_2021.pdf">estimates</a> that it will take 195.4 years to close the gender gap in South Asia. Imran Khan will need a strategy beyond enforcing women’s purdah to solve the crisis of sexual violence and gender parity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158717/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amina Yaqin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pakistan’s president is facing a backlash for his comments on sexual violence against women.Amina Yaqin, Reader in Postcolonial Studies and Urdu, SOAS, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1291122020-02-14T14:50:21Z2020-02-14T14:50:21ZKashmir: why Trump’s offer of international mediation is a good idea<p>Before a recent meeting in Davos with Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan, Donald Trump <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/donald-trump-repeats-kashmir-mediation-offer-india-says-its-a-bilateral-issue/articleshow/73529876.cms">reiterated</a> <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/donald-trump-irks-india-offers-to-mediate-in-kashmir-row-again-1564768298953.html">his offer</a> to help mediate over the issue of Kashmir. </p>
<p>It’s been six months since <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/op-ed/2019/09/19/trumps-kashmir-mediation-drama">India revoked</a> the special constitutional status for the disputed territory of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and put the state on lockdown. While internet restrictions have eased, connectivity remains patchy and prominent local politicians <a href="http://www.risingkashmir.com/news/omar-abdullahs-sister-moves-sc-challenging-his-detention-under-psa-356920.html">are still in detention</a>.</p>
<p>Khan’s administration <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1498781">objected to the revocation</a> on the grounds that Jammu and Kashmir is internationally recognised as a disputed territory. It argued that India’s unilateral decision contravened UN resolutions on the conflict, the Geneva Conventions, and India’s own constitution and supreme court. Pakistan also expressed concerns about ethnic cleansing and genocide.</p>
<p>Since then, the Indian government of prime minister Narendra Modi has <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/s-jaishankar-says-no-kashmir-mediation-india-has-been-clear-for-40-odd-years-2109992">repeatedly refused</a> to accept mediation over Kashmir, something <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/khan-plays-trump-card-calls-for-mediation-to-solve-kashmir-row-1564926823006.html">Khan says he is open to</a>. The question of mediation is likely to come up at a forthcoming visit to India by Trump <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/ahead-of-trumps-visit-four-us-senators-seek-assessment-of-human-rights-and-religious-freedom-situation-in-india/articleshow/74112242.cms">in late February</a>. </p>
<p>My ongoing doctoral research suggests that mediation by the world’s great powers – such as the US, UK, Russia, China or Turkey – to resolve the festering conflict over Kashmir could pave the way for greater security cooperation in the Pakistan-India-Afghanistan triangle. </p>
<p>The disputes over the line of control that separates Indian- and Pakistani-administered Jammu and Kashmir, and the Durand Line separating Pakistan and Afghanistan, are <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Magnificent_Delusions_INDIA_HC_ED.html?id=dIvRnQEACAAJ&source=kp_book_description&redir_esc=y">remnants of the decolonisation process</a>. These disputes have complicated security relations in South Asia and led to lingering instability, hindering regional cooperation and integration. </p>
<p>Since 1989, India has deployed between 600,000 and 700,000 soldiers to Jammu and Kashmir. Alleged <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0306396814542914">human rights abuses</a> on the part of the Indian security forces have included rape, torture, extrajudicial killings, custodial disappearances, and the violent suppression of protests – one of the fundamental rights of citizens in a democracy. These have been documented in <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=24799&LangID=E">reports by the UN Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights</a>. In the summer of 2016, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/08/india-crackdown-in-kashmir-is-this-worlds-first-mass-blinding">17,000 demonstrators</a> were injured in a brutal security crackdown. This has fuelled a further <a href="https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/78264/1/JBS.pdf">sense of marginalisation</a> among local Kashmiris. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Listen to an episode of The Conversation’s India Tomorrow podcast series on Kashmir.</em> </p>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b910?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
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<h2>A shared history</h2>
<p>I’m looking at the Kashmir issue from the perspective of the <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Anarchical_Society.html?id=y8LNihGe4S4C">English school of international relations</a>, a theoretical approach to international affairs that emphasises countries’ pursuit of shared interests and values through common institutions, human rights and diplomacy. This theory argues that the great powers have a special responsibility to maintain security and stability in the world.</p>
<p>In the Pakistan-India-Afghanistan triangle, despite deep-seated conflicts, all three countries have repeatedly turned to the institutions and norms of international society to seek to resolve disputes and defuse tensions. For example, Pakistan and India have repeatedly attempted to engage in a bilateral dialogue and to <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/new-beginning-india-and-pakistan-nsas-spoke-within-hours-of-pathankot-attack/articleshow/50474599.cms?from=mdr">share intelligence on terrorism</a>. Afghanistan’s inclusion in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is another example of this desire to use international institutions to defuse tensions. Such regional cooperation is a foundation upon which to build a more cooperative trilateral relationship – if the countries choose to do so.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-partition-of-india-happened-and-why-its-effects-are-still-felt-today-81766">How the Partition of India happened – and why its effects are still felt today</a>
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<p>Pakistan, India and Afghanistan have a shared history going back to <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/06/18/whats-wrong-with-pakistan/">the Mauryan Empire</a> of the fourth century BC. Ethnic and religious identities spill over borders and the common cultural heritage is rich, spanning music, food, cinema, poetry, language and spirituality. </p>
<p>The security threats plaguing this region are shared too. Violent extremist groups are a concern not only for India, but for Afghanistan and Pakistan too. While India <a href="https://www.stimson.org/wp-content/files/InvestigatingCrisesConflictResolution.pdf">repeatedly blames Pakistan</a> for attacks in Jammu and Kashmir and other parts of India perpetrated by the Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Tayyaba militant groups, Pakistan <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/1516681/india-maintains-close-contacts-ttp-afghan-soil-fo/">believes that India supports</a> the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, which has caused tremendous insecurity in Pakistan over the past two decades.</p>
<p>It also accuses India of supporting secessionism in <a href="https://dailytimes.com.pk/286526/indias-renewed-strategy-of-destabilising-balochistan/">the province of Balochistan</a>, which threatens the economic corridor between China and Pakistan. Afghanistan has been destabilised by the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/afghanistan-blames-pakistan-taliban-kabul-blast-170601151615042.html">regularly blames</a> Pakistan for backing them.</p>
<p>This cycle of allegations and counter-allegations hides the fact that these terrorist groups are non-state actors who work across borders. A comprehensive counter-terrorism strategy requires security and intelligence cooperation, alongside an approach that addresses the political, social, economic and psychological factors underlying terrorism.</p>
<h2>Breaking the deadlock</h2>
<p>A first step towards unravelling the knotty security dynamic in this region could be a positive response to the American offer to mediate on Kashmir. In the absence of bilateral headway in the peace process, third-party mediation is a reasonable way of attempting to break the deadlock. The successful settlement of the dispute over Kashmir could open the way to negotiations on the other core and interlinked issue of transnational terrorism. </p>
<p>The Pakistan-India, Pakistan-Afghanistan, and India-China territorial disputes are legacies of colonisation. The mistrust between Pakistan and India has hampered efforts to forge cooperation in the wider South Asian region, as shown by the <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2016/09/saarc-summit-cancellation-will-sting-pakistan-but-wont-prevent-the-next-uri-or-pathankot/">cancellation of the 19th SAARC summit</a> in 2016.</p>
<p>If India wants to be a great power in the emerging world order, it must first achieve a peaceful and stable neighbourhood. Accepting Trump’s offer would be a step in this direction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Saloni Kapur does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>India has rejected recent offers on mediation over Jammu and Kashmir. But it should think again.Saloni Kapur, Assistant Professor, International Studies at FLAME University and PhD Candidate in International Relations, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1228512019-09-05T13:44:33Z2019-09-05T13:44:33ZKashmir: how Modi’s aggressive ‘Hindutva’ project has brought India and Pakistan to the brink – again<p>August is immensely important in the history of the Asian subcontinent, marking the month that India and Pakistan <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/partition1947_01.shtml">gained independence</a> from the British in 1947. Now, in 2019, it has once again proved momentous, when, <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/the-big-story/story/20190819-downsizing-kashmir-1578639-2019-08-09">ten days before</a> India’s Independence day celebrations, prime minister <a href="http://www.elections.in/political-leaders/narendra-modi.html">Narendra Modi’s</a> government revoked the autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir – a status provided for under the Indian Constitution. </p>
<p>This latest move was a manifesto pledge from Modi’s Hindu nationalist <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/india-bjp-190523053850803.html">Bharatiya Janata Party</a> (BJP), which claims that Kashmir’s autonomy has hindered its development while fostering an area of thriving terrorism and smuggling.</p>
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<p><em><strong>Read more: <a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmiris-are-living-a-long-nightmare-of-indian-colonialism-121925">Kashmiris are living a long nightmare of Indian colonialism</a></strong></em> </p>
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<p>Soon, thousands of troops were deployed and the valley region faced unprecedented lockdown. Experts say that Modi’s move to tether the Muslim majority of Kashmir is a gamble that could trigger conflict with Pakistan while <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/05/india-cancellation-of-kashmir-special-status-will-have-consequences">reigniting an insurgency</a> that has already cost tens of thousands of lives.</p>
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<h2>Kashmir: a brief history</h2>
<p>Until 1947, Kashmir was a territorially well-defined and functional state that had existed for a century before its <a href="https://brill.com/view/book/9789004359994/BP000010.xml">seizure by the British</a> in 1846. The British decolonisation of the subcontinent in 1947 was instrumental in creating disorder that pushed Kashmir into a repeated cycle of war and stalemate <a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2019-08-08/kashmir-autonomy-india-modi">between Pakistan and India</a>, which have both claimed the region as sovereign territory for the last 70 years.</p>
<p>Today, Kashmir’s geopolitical position and glacial water reserves – which provide fresh water and hydro-electric power to millions – add an extra dimension to the existing sectarian and ideological conflict between India and Pakistan over this small northern region.</p>
<p>The Kashmir issue has resulted in <a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-conflict-is-not-just-a-border-dispute-between-india-and-pakistan-112824">three wars</a> between these two countries – in 1947, 1965 and 1999 – triggering numerous UN <a href="http://kashmirvalley.info/un-resolutions/#.XWx1VVB7kWo">Security Council Resolutions</a> – which unequivocally call for the Kashmiris’ right to self-determination.</p>
<h2>Modi’s Hindu nationalist project</h2>
<p>Many within the region feel that Modi’s BJP is brazenly trying to change Kashmir’s ethnic composition to disadvantage India’s Muslim minority by encouraging more Hindus into the region. Since the revocation of Article 370 (which assured the region’s autonomy), Indian Kashmiri leaders who vehemently opposed the decision – including two former chief ministers – have been <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/omar-mehbooba-being-provided-food-as-per-jail-manual-754489.html">sent to jail</a>.</p>
<p>Modi’s government has a history of stoking tensions between Hindus and Muslims, with its political rule now focused on “<a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=3N4mGlbutbgC&pg=PA351&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">Hindutva</a>”, which translates roughly as “Hindu-ness”, and reframes Hinduism as an identity rather than a theology or religion.</p>
<p>Modi has fostered Hindu nationalism through anti-Islamic rhetoric, accusing Muslim men of attempting to change India’s demographics by seducing Hindu women, as well as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/20/mobs-killing-muslims-india-narendra-modi-bjp">encouraging lynching</a> of Muslims falsely accused of eating beef (from the sacred Hindu cow) in BJP controlled states. Clearly, these are tactics designed to expand the notion of Hindutva and further isolate the Muslim population within India. Targeting Kashmir is a crucial part of the strategy.</p>
<h2>Dangerous tensions and nuclear options</h2>
<p>In the wake of India’s decision to revoke Kashmir’s special status, there are two key questions. </p>
<p>First, will it be beneficial to Kashmir as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3fa1cbac-c271-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9">claimed by Modi’s government</a>? The situation on the ground would suggest not. After a month of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/india-revokes-kashmir-special-status-latest-updates-190806134011673.html">curfew and lockdown</a>, protests have <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/kashmir-protests-lockdown-india-pakistan-crackdown-public-movement-a9064531.html">turned violent</a>. The Indian government has been unable to restore peace in the valley despite the increasing atrocities. According to news reports, <a href="https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/4000-people-arrested-in-jammu-and-kashmir-since-august-5-say-govt-sources">4,000 people have been arrested</a> since the territory lost its status.</p>
<p>Second, how is the situation affecting the already tense relations between India and Pakistan? India’s land grab comes just five months after a breakdown in relations following claims by India that a Pakistani-based suicide bomber <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20190214-pakistan-india-kashmir-suicide-bomb-attack">killed 44 Indian soldiers</a> in the Kashmir region, leading to airstrikes by both sides. The situation threatens to reignite this conflict with both countries <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/pakistan-wont-trigger-a-war-with-india-imran-khan/articleshow/70951509.cms">cautioning the world</a> about the nuclear option.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1498411">Addressing a joint session</a> of Pakistan’s parliament on August 6, prime minister Imran Khan briefed lawmakers on the steps his government had taken towards peace in the region. But he maintained the situation in Indian-occupied Kashmir would deteriorate and its neighbour would <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1498411">blame and attack Pakistan</a>. </p>
<p>Days later, Indian defence minister Rajnath Singh stated that India is committed to “no first use” of nuclear weapons, but future policy is dependent on the ever-evolving circumstances. These sentiments have led to <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/our-captured-wounded-hearts-arundhati-roy-on-balakot-kashmir-and-india_n_5c78d592e4b0de0c3fbf82bf?guccounter=2">international debate</a> over the possibility of nuclear weapons being unleashed.</p>
<h2>Parallels with East Timor</h2>
<p>With this nuclear threat ever present, the situation in Kashmir is now one of the most dangerous in the world. Since the two countries have consistently failed to make any progress, external help from the international community and the UN is crucial in resolving the conflict and preventing further escalation.</p>
<p>As the world witnessed in the case of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/East-Timor">East Timor</a> in 1999, independence from Indonesia after two decades of bloodshed was achieved following a referendum held under the stewardship of the UN. This result was not accepted by Indonesia, which launched a <a href="https://etan.org/estafeta/01/spring/6indo.htm">scorched-earth campaign</a>, killing more than 1,500 Timorese, displacing nearly half the population, and razing much of East Timor to the ground.</p>
<p>The subsequent progression towards <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20873267">independence and peacebuilding</a> was facilitated by external bodies such as the <a href="https://peaceaccords.nd.edu/provision/un-peacekeeping-force-agreement-between-republic-indonesia-and-portuguese-republic">UN-mandated</a> International Force in East Timor and the Transitional Administration in East Timor, underscoring the importance of support from both the UN and the international community.</p>
<p>The UN didn’t achieve success overnight, but endured through increasing international pressure, combined with a change in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/world/asia/28suharto.html">Suharto</a> government. Soon, Indonesia found itself falling out of favour with the international community.</p>
<p>There are parallels here for the Kashmir situation. Although progress may be slow while Modi’s populist BJP remains in power, pressure from the international community would likely go a long way towards pulling both countries back from the brink. In the meantime, while Modi tries to remake India in the BJP’s Hindutva image, for Kashmiris the struggle for self-determination goes on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Contributing authors: Alamgir Khan, a PhD student in Politics & International Relations, University of Dundee;
Roberta Dumitriu, (Mlitt/MSc) International Relations, University of Dundee; and
Rhiannon Dempsey, (Mlitt) International Security, University of Dundee. </span></em></p>Roughly translating as ‘Hindu-ness’, Hindutva reframes the majority religion more as an identity, stoking tensions and intolerance of Muslims.Abdullah Yusuf, Lecturer in Politics, University of DundeeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1209532019-07-26T11:11:11Z2019-07-26T11:11:11ZWhy Afghanistan peace is key to rebuilding relations between the US and Pakistan<p>At times, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49032495">the press conference in the White House</a> was surreal. While Imran Khan, Pakistan’s prime minister, looked on, Donald Trump said he could “kill 10m people” in Afghanistan to “win a war within a week”, but had decided not to. And the US president said he could be the mediator to solve the decades-long Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India.</p>
<p>Khan glanced at Trump a few times with a look of resignation over his host’s rambling, often irrelevant hyperbole. But, generally, the prime minister said nothing as Trump leapt to answer questions directed at his guest. Khan carefully kept his hands in front of him, all his fingers touching in a sign of steadiness. </p>
<p>For this was his moment, after 11 months in office, to bring Islamabad out of the cold with the Trump administration and US agencies. Khan was claiming his place on the political centre-stage and looking to restore the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trump-admin-cancels-300m-aid-pakistan-over-terror-record-n905786">$300m in aid cancelled</a> by the US military in September 2018, over claims Pakistan wasn’t doing enough to combat militants in the Afghan border region.</p>
<p>Khan’s official visit appeared to go exceptionally well, with warm greetings from key figures including US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Trump responded well to Khan’s compliment that he was president of the most powerful nation of the world. And Khan established Pakistan’s key place with regard to Afghanistan, not as the oft-alleged “supporter of terrorism”, but as the broker of a settlement.</p>
<h2>Bringing the Taliban to the table</h2>
<p>The first interaction between Khan and Trump was a frosty Twitter spat, after the US delivered its slap in the face with the aid suspension.</p>
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<p>But circumstances changed when Trump <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20181203-trump-letter-imran-khan-seeks-pakistans-help-afghanistan">wrote a letter</a> to Khan in December 2018 requesting Islamabad’s help to bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table. Pakistani officials have since developed a constructive partnership with the US Special Representative for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, as he and the Taliban have held multiple rounds of negotiations in Qatar. Representatives of the Afghan government participated in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/08/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-peace-talks.html">the latest phase on July 8</a>, pointing to the possibility of a national resolution involving all major parties.</p>
<p>This positive engagement was made possible only by a re-calibration and alignment of the strategic goals of both sides in Afghanistan. For the first time, a US administration has recognised that it cannot effectively stay in Afghanistan indefinitely. Washington now accepts that the eventual resolution of the conflict will only come from a political process that includes the Taliban. The US has accepted the rationale of the Pakistanis – supported by other regional players such as Iran, Russia, and China – that the Taliban must be part of the government.</p>
<p>Trump has played his part with his simple mantra that US troops must be brought home. In his press conference with Khan, he said the US must not be the region’s policeman, looking instead to regional partners to settle conflicts.</p>
<p>That line gives Khan leverage. In return for the declaration that Pakistan will serve as the top cop on the regional block, Islamabad can pursue the restoration of US aid, take the lead in political manoeuvres in Afghanistan, and gain a tactical advantage over its neighbour, India.</p>
<h2>Imran’s great game</h2>
<p>For Pakistan, the icing on the cake was Trump bringing the K-word before the press. When Khan raised Kashmir, Trump not only jumped to claim his mediation prowess but said a similar request had been made by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Delhi <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/23/india-denies-asking-for-donald-trumps-mediation-in-kashmir">swiftly and sharply denied the claim</a>, but its insistence that Kashmir is an issue for Pakistan and India to sort out together without any external third-party mediation, has been shaken.</p>
<p>Then there was Khan’s personal victory, as Trump declared Pakistan a great country and its prime minister a great leader. While rebuilding links with US security agencies, Khan also capitalised on the special circumstance of playing politics from the top table by his appeals to Trump’s ego.</p>
<p>Both Republican senator Lindsey Graham, a close friend of Trump’s, and Saudi crown prince Mohammad Bin Salman <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/international/pakistan/imran-khan-has-saudi-crown-prince-to-thank-for-us-visit-report">connected Khan with Trump</a>. Graham, impressed by his first meeting with Khan, speculated that he and Trump had similar personalities and would get along well. Bin Salman built extremely cordial ties with Khan, particularly as he defied the informal diplomatic boycott of the crown prince following <a href="https://theconversation.com/jamal-khashoggi-disappearance-a-defining-moment-for-saudi-arabias-relations-with-the-west-105064">condemnation</a> of the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Bin Salman is close to Trump’s son-in-law and Middle East adviser Jared Kushner, which led to Khan’s invitation to visit the White House. </p>
<p>On the domestic front, Khan and his government have been reaping the political dividends of the Trump endorsement. The daily newspaper Dawn ran with the headline: “<a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1496137/imran-khan-in-washington-he-came-he-saw-he-conquered">He Came, He Saw, He Conquered</a>”. Khan’s address to members of the Pakistani-American community also fired up his base of supporters, catching the opposition and government critics by surprise. </p>
<p>Afghanistan now becomes the catalytic issue to test the Pakistani-US rapprochement. Any peace settlement there would strengthen Khan’s persona as a regional builder of peace and security – and even if this is not immediate, Pakistan’s presence at the head of negotiations yields political capital. </p>
<p>Then comes the bigger test of personalities and politics. For now, Pakistan wants to resolve the Afghan conflict in line with its own strategic perspective – and it’s very aware that Trump wants to take US troops home before going into the 2020 US presidential election campaign. On his trip to Washington, Khan also <a href="https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/press-releases/72319-4/">met with</a> the Democratic speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi – so he’s aware he must play the long game. Nonetheless, Pakistan considers it can get the best deal on a renewed strategic partnership with the US from Trump during his first term, both for regional security and for the economic challenges facing Islamabad.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120953/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Umer Karim is affiliated with the Royal United Services Institute London as a Visiting Fellow. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After Imran Khan’s visit to the White House, what lies ahead for his relationship with Donald Trump?Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, University of BirminghamUmer Karim, PhD Candidate, Department of Politics and International Studies, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1204142019-07-22T20:42:48Z2019-07-22T20:42:48ZWorld Bank ruling against Pakistan shows global economic governance is broken<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285016/original/file-20190721-116562-nqpql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3964%2C2614&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Pakistani man walks past a shop that was closed due to a recent strike in Peshawar, Pakistan. Hundreds of thousands of Pakistani businesses went on strike in a nationwide protest against an increased sales tax, which opposition political parties said was imposed as part of the International Monetary Fund's recent $6 billion bailout package for Islamabad. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s been a rough month for Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan.</p>
<p>It started off with the International Monetary Fund approving a US$6 billion dollar loan to the country. The <a href="https://www.newsradio.lk/international/strict-imf-bailout-conditions-on-pakistan/">strict conditions</a> on the loan meant that instead of expanding the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/imran-khan-seeks-to-make-graft-ridden-pakistan-a-welfare-state">welfare state</a>, Khan’s government had to impose “<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistan-offers-sharp-shifts-to-win-imf-bailout-11561973412">shock therapy</a>” austerity measures. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, this resulted in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-strike/pakistani-traders-strike-over-imf-austerity-measures-idUSKCN1U80C2">nationwide strikes</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/imran-khan-hopes-to-transform-pakistan-but-hell-have-far-less-power-than-past-leaders-100643">Imran Khan hopes to transform Pakistan but he'll have far less power than past leaders</a>
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<p>Then, less than two weeks later, a secretive World Bank tribunal ordered Pakistan <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-mine-military/world-bank-court-orders-pakistan-pay-58-billion-damages-to-tethyan-copper-idUSKCN1U80GT">to pay a mining company US$5.8 billion dollars</a> — nearly as much as the IMF loan — to resolve an eight year-long dispute. </p>
<p>Why would an arm of the development pillar of the <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/bretton-woods-system-and-1944-agreement-3306133">Bretton Woods system</a> require a country in crisis to do something that would completely undermine the actions of the financial stability tenets of that same system? </p>
<p>What does it say about the state of global economic governance? Is it broken? </p>
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<h2>Protecting corporate profits</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://icsid.worldbank.org/en/">International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes</a> was established in 1966 as part of the World Bank Group. The centre oversees arbitrations between foreign companies and states in a process known as the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS). </p>
<p>ISDS is hugely controversial for a variety of reasons ranging from the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/27/opinion/the-secret-trade-courts.html">secrecy of the hearings</a> to the <a href="https://digitalcommons.osgoode.yorku.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1335&context=all_papers">substantial costs</a> associated with defending a claim and the ability of corporations to challenge <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/02/revealed-39m-cost-of-defending-australias-tobacco-plain-packaging-laws">health</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-fossil-fuel-era-is-coming-to-an-end-but-the-lawsuits-are-just-beginning-107512">environmental measures</a>.</p>
<p>The case that cost Pakistan $5.8 billion did not revolve around such measures but rather the decision of a provincial government to backtrack on a <a href="https://herald.dawn.com/news/1153283">sweetheart deal</a> that had been offered to a mining firm, allegedly the <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1494099">result of corruption</a>. Leaving the merits of the case to one side — it is difficult to assess the tribunal’s reasoning when the award isn’t public, after all — let’s take a closer look at the payout. </p>
<p>According to the mining company — Tethyan Copper, partially owned by Canada’s Barrick Gold — it spent <a href="http://www.tethyan.com">US$220 million on exploration activities</a> before things went south. One might argue that a fair outcome, if the government was solely to blame, would be for the award to cover these sunk costs. Instead it was more than 25 times that amount. That is because the tribunal chose to award the company “lost future profits” from the project.</p>
<h2>No crystal balls</h2>
<p>Arbitrators don’t have crystal balls. They don’t know what the value of a mineral will be in a year, let alone 30 years. And they are lawyers, not market analysts. So how do they decide how much profit a firm would have made in a hypothetical alternative future? </p>
<p>The answer is, partially, that they rely on “experts” brought in by each of the parties to the dispute. These experts provide a best guess for what they think a project is worth. International law scholar Robert Howse calls this <a href="https://www.analysisgroup.com/globalassets/uploadedfiles/content/news_and_events/news/2019-scrutiny-creeps-in-on-damages-investment-arbitration.pdf.pdf">“junk science.”</a></p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, the state’s expert often provides a low-ball estimate for the value of a project and the investor’s expert gives an inflated value. Faced with this discrepancy, arbitrators will often choose to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2273969">go down the middle </a> and pick an arbitrary value. Tethyan Copper had originally sought <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/1612383/1-pakistan-faces-11-43b-damages-claims-reko-diq-mining-case/">more than US$11 billion in damages</a>, suggesting that the tribunal in this case may have taken this approach.</p>
<p>When it comes to the calculation of damages, there are very few constraints on arbitrators. As noted in <a href="https://www.italaw.com/sites/default/files/case-documents/ita0006.pdf">one award</a>, a tribunal generally has the freedom to “arrive at a figure with which it is comfortable in all the circumstances of the case.” </p>
<p>Did the arbitrators in this case consider that the owners of Tethyan Copper —Antofogasta of Chile and Barrick Gold — had long ago <a href="https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/mining/i-dont-expect-barrick-to-get-paid-5-83-billion-arbitration-win-in-pakistan-leaves-unanswered-questions">written off the project </a> and continued to be very <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/05/10/can-barrick-gold-sustain-the-momentum-through-fy-2019-after-a-strong-first-quarter/#30e2ec437663">profitable</a> firms? Did they consider the records of these companies in terms of alleged <a href="http://londonminingnetwork.org/2018/05/antofagasta-we-demand-answers-and-accountability/">corruption</a> and <a href="https://miningwatch.ca/news/2019/5/7/new-ceo-same-human-rights-and-environmental-abuses-barrick-mine-sites">human rights abuses</a> in other countries? </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285017/original/file-20190721-116573-159h680.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285017/original/file-20190721-116573-159h680.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285017/original/file-20190721-116573-159h680.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285017/original/file-20190721-116573-159h680.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285017/original/file-20190721-116573-159h680.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285017/original/file-20190721-116573-159h680.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285017/original/file-20190721-116573-159h680.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285017/original/file-20190721-116573-159h680.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan is seen speaking at the World Government Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, in February 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Jon Gambrell)</span></span>
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<p>Did they consider that US$5.8 billion is one eighth of Pakistan’s total government budget for 2019/20? Did they consider that the country is facing an economic crisis? It seems the answer may have been “no” on all counts though, again, we are left guessing about the tribunal’s justifications for its award.</p>
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<h2>A way out</h2>
<p>An international process is currently underway to come up with <a href="http://www.uncitral.org/uncitral/en/commission/working_groups/3Investor_State.html">reforms</a> to ISDS, and excessive damages awards have been identified as an area of concern for states. A number of countries, most recently <a href="https://occupyfta.blogspot.com/2019/07/korean-prime-minister-agreed-to-abolish.html">South Korea</a>, have come to the wise decision that the best way forward is to opt out of ISDS altogether. </p>
<p>In practice, this means individual states terminating the <a href="https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/international-investment-agreements">thousands of investment treaties</a> that provide access to arbitration, which can be a difficult and time-consuming process. A preferable approach would be for states to co-ordinate their efforts, for example through a <a href="https://uncitral.un.org/sites/uncitral.un.org/files/media-documents/uncitral/en/uncitral_recs_and_justification_final.pdf">multilateral exit agreement</a>. </p>
<p>Abolishing ISDS won’t solve all of the problems of global economic governance. But it seems a very good place to start.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kyla Tienhaara receives funding from the Canada Research Chairs (CRC) program and the Social Science and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) (Government of Canada). She occasionally does pro-bono work for not-for-profit organizations.</span></em></p>Abolishing the secretive World Bank Tribunal known as the ISDS won’t solve all of the problems of global economic governance. But it seems a very good place to start.Kyla Tienhaara, Canada Research Chair in Economy and Environment, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1198002019-07-18T12:06:18Z2019-07-18T12:06:18ZTehreek-e-Labbaik: how blasphemy case in Pakistan brought down hardline religious party<p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c8qpdz3gxymt/asia-bibi-blasphemy-case">Asia Bibi</a>, a Pakistani Christian and farm labourer, was beaten by a mob and arrested for blasphemy in June 2009 after being accused of insulting the Prophet Muhammad during an argument. She maintained her innocence throughout the trial the following year, but was sentenced to death. Almost a decade later, in October 2018, Pakistan’s supreme court overturned her conviction and <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/asia-bibi-pakistans-top-court-overturns-christian-womans-death-sentence-in-blasphemy-case/a-46096372">acquitted her</a>. </p>
<p>Supporters of a fledgling far-right party called <a href="https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/all-you-need-to-know-about-tlp-pakistans-hardline-islamist-party-calling-the-shots-1.1541741110622">Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan</a> (TLP) <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/asia-bibis-blasphemy-verdict-islamists-protest-across-pakistan/a-46101210">violently opposed</a> the decision that saw her released. But its actions in taking on the state over the Bibi case have brought TLP to an end as quickly as it gained popularity.</p>
<p>An offshoot of right-wing religious group <a href="https://www.memri.org/reports/tehreek-labbaik-ya-rasool-allah-tly-%E2%80%93-islamist-movement-center-anti-government-protests">Tehreek-i-Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah Pakistan</a>, TLP was founded in 2016 following the execution of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-south-asia-15138740/salman-taseer-murder-mumtaz-qadri-sentenced-to-death">Mumtaz Qadri</a>. The bodyguard policeman murdered his ward, the Punjab governor Salman Taseer, in 2011, after he publicly voiced his support for Bibi.</p>
<p>The new party stepped up to give a voice to right-wing, conservative Islamist views. Until its participation in the by-election for Lahore’s National Assembly constituency in September 2017, the party was relatively unknown. But the results surprised many of Pakistan’s political elite when the TLP <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-election-religion-factbox/factbox-islamist-parties-running-in-pakistans-election-idUSKBN1KC04R">secured nearly 8% of total votes</a> cast. This new political party quickly <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1423491">dominated headlines</a> with a manifesto that included promises to make Pakistan a welfare state, to end terrorism and corruption, and to uphold the sanctity of Islam’s Holy Prophet.</p>
<h2>Political clout</h2>
<p>The party again attracted attention when it spearheaded a protest in November 2017 calling for the law minister Zahid Hamid to resign for his alleged role in <a href="https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/law-minister-zahid-hamid-resigns-after-three-week-protest-by-religious-parties-1.2131494">changing the wording of the oath</a> taken by parliamentarians – which the group deemed blasphemous.</p>
<p>Though Hamid resigned, apologised and assured the nation that he believed in the <a href="http://www.thedeenshow.com/the-finality-of-prophethood/">finality of the prophet</a> – these events pushed TLP into the nation’s political consciousness. In the general elections of July 2018, TLP fielded 744 candidates. This time the party bagged a significant number of votes and <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1423491">won two seats</a> in Sindh province, gaining recognition as a new religious and political force in a very short space of time.</p>
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<p>The Pakistani supreme court’s acquittal of Bibi in October 2018 came as a severe blow to the ideology on which TLP had been founded. Thousands of angry supporters blocked roads and motorways, while one of its leaders, Pir Afzal Qadri <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/pakistan-pm-calls-calm-aasia-bibi-cleared-blasphemy-181031173052989.html">stated</a> that the killing of those who overturned the verdict was justifiable.</p>
<p>TLP’s swift rise suggested it had the potential to become a popular political force which would give voice to prominent conservative views in this profoundly religious society. The party employed a smart strategy by harnessing the febrile emotions surrounding the subject of blasphemy, and positioned itself as the champion of Islamic values, bringing it huge popular support.</p>
<p>The party was also astute in appealing to serious political candidates who had found themselves at odds with their own parties, giving the TLP political credibility and access to new sources of voters. In November 2017, the number of supporters taking to the streets in protest against Zahid Hamid’s perceived blasphemy pointed to the party becoming a force to be reckoned with in Pakistan.</p>
<p>But the high-profile protests that followed the Bibi acquittal in late 2018 – in which public property was vandalised and innocent citizens injured – were instrumental in its downfall. </p>
<h2>Violent protests</h2>
<p>In an attempt to end the protests, the newly elected prime minster <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Imran-Khan">Imran Khan</a> warned protestors not to incite violence and force the state into taking action. The demonstrators finally called off their protest after three days and signed a deal with the government.</p>
<p>The agreement included a clause that the government would put Asia Bibi’s name on the Exit Control List (ECL) to prevent her from fleeing abroad, and see arrested TLP members released. But within days of the protests subsiding, the government launched a crackdown against all those who had damaged state property and incited violence during the protest.</p>
<p>More than 5,000 supporters of TLP were arrested. The government also went after TLP leaders Afzal Qadri and <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1374182">Khadim Hussain Rizvi</a>, charging them with sedition and terrorism. Announcing the charges, the government made it clear that it would not remain silent over any protest that violated the rights of the people. At the latest hearing in July 2019, both men were <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/498957-afzal-qadri-s-bail-extended">extended post-arrest bail</a> until the next hearing, Afzal Qadri on health grounds.</p>
<p>This swift action helped the state to establish its authority, but questions remain as to how such groups emerge in Pakistan and how they should be dealt with. </p>
<h2>Shutting it down</h2>
<p>The judiciary, the military and most of the parliament’s political parties seem to be in agreement that TLP’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-politics/pakistan-to-press-terrorism-charges-against-leaders-of-hardline-islamist-group-idUSKCN1O03DQ">biggest mistake</a> was its overt criticism of the military in its call to overthrow the head of the Pakistani army, Qamar Bajwa.</p>
<p>Though Imran Khan’s government presides over parliament, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/27/imran-khan-won-pakistan-power-army-military-election">military holds enormous political power</a> in Pakistan, and on the rare occasions it is publicly criticised, responds with a heavy hand. In May 2019, just before Asia Bibi <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/08/asia-bibi-begins-new-life-in-canada-but-her-ordeal-may-not-be-over">found asylum in Canada</a>, Afzal Qadri was ordered to <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1480837/lhc-directs-pir-afzal-qadri-to-submit-detailed-apology-for-incendiary-remarks">apologise</a> for his threat to the military and stood down <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-xl/asia/pakistan/tlp-patron-in-chief-pir-afzal-qadri-quits-party-citing-health-issues/ar-AAALac8">citing health reasons</a>.</p>
<p>Now, with its two firebrand leaders living under <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/498957-afzal-qadri-s-bail-extended">post-arrest bail conditions</a>, Asia Bibi forging a new life in Canada and the protracted trial ongoing, TLP appears to have been politically neutralised.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283364/original/file-20190709-44466-862vse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283364/original/file-20190709-44466-862vse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=673&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283364/original/file-20190709-44466-862vse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=673&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283364/original/file-20190709-44466-862vse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=673&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283364/original/file-20190709-44466-862vse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283364/original/file-20190709-44466-862vse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283364/original/file-20190709-44466-862vse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pir Afzal Qadri, leader of TLP has stepped down and is under arrest.</span>
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<p>In Pakistan, any religious group or political party can survive as long as it doesn’t threaten the interests of the country’s strong military establishment. Critics argue that the TLP might have survived if it had not issued a fatwa against the military leadership. But Pakistan’s new government also took a bold stance in bringing the fanatics under the rule of law.</p>
<p>Both civilian and military leadership must understand that Pakistani society cannot afford to tolerate such extremist groups. It is time for everyone to be made accountable under the law. This would make the dream of Pakistan’s founder, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/historic_figures/jinnah_mohammad_ali.shtml">Muhammad Ali Jinnah</a>, a reality by creating a country that is safe for minorities. Today, rule of law and equal rights are the only way forward if Pakistan is to become a prosperous and progressive country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119800/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Contributing authors include:
Alamgir Khan, a PhD student in Politics & International Relations, University o Dundee.
Faisal Yaqoob, a PhD student in Politics & International Relations, University o Dundee.
Rhiannon Dempsey, (Mlitt) International Security, University of Dundee.
</span></em></p>Taking on the state with threats and violent protests was met with a swift crackdown by Imran Khan’s new government.Abdullah Yusuf, Lecturer in Politics, University of DundeeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1131142019-03-12T19:08:21Z2019-03-12T19:08:21ZIndia, Pakistan and the changing rules of engagement: here’s what you need to know<p>More than 40 Indian security staff lost their lives in a <a href="https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/india-warns-of-crushing-response-to-kashmir-suicide-attack-as-tensions-mount-with-pakistan/news-story/34e08a53f60edef8d3b61503b9818bd2">suicide attack</a> on February 14, 2019 in the Pulwama region of Indian-administered Kashmir. The Pakistan-based Islamist militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) claimed responsibility for the attack.</p>
<p>Twelve days later, India <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/balakot-tapes-expose-pakistan-army-deaths-1475497-2019-03-11">launched air strikes</a> against JeM training camps in Balakot, Pakistan. India <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47366718">claimed the strikes inflicted</a> significant damage on infrastructure and killed militant commanders, while avoiding civilians. </p>
<p>India said the strikes were “pre-emptive”, based on intelligence that JeM were planning more suicide attacks in Indian territory. Pakistan denied India’s claims, both about the damage done by their airstrikes and that Pakistan was planning further attacks. </p>
<p>But Pakistan retaliated with an airstrike on what it termed a “non-military installation” in the Indian controlled region of Kashmir. In the ensuing skirmish with the Indian Air Force, an Indian jet was downed and a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-28/captured-indian-pilot-becomes-face-of-kashmir-crisis/10855776">pilot captured</a>.</p>
<p>These events, in the disputed territory of Kashmir, have brought international attention to the prospect of a nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan. But why is the decades-long conflict heating up again, and why now?</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nuclear-war-between-india-and-pakistan-an-expert-assesses-the-risk-112892">Nuclear war between India and Pakistan? An expert assesses the risk</a>
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<h2>History of Kashmir</h2>
<p>India and Pakistan have been involved in a territorial dispute over Kashmir for decades. The roots of the conflict lie in the partition of British India in 1947, which created the secular state of India and the Muslim state of Pakistan. </p>
<p>The idea behind the partition was for Muslim-majority regions to become a part of Pakistan. But Kashmir was complicated. Although a Muslim-majority state, it was ruled by a Hindu king. </p>
<p>He decided to accede to India in October 1947. This was unacceptable to Pakistan, which launched a war in 1948 to capture Kashmir by force. </p>
<p>A result of the war was a UN-mediated ceasefire line. This divided Kashmir into Indian-administered “Jammu and Kashmir” (J&K) – which constituted two-thirds of the territory – and Pakistan-administered “Azad (free) Kashmir”, which was one-third of the territory. </p>
<p>While the 1948 ceasefire brought an end to the fighting, Kashmir’s status remained unresolved and Pakistan continued to contest the territorial boundaries. India granted J&K constitutional autonomy, while the Pakistan-administered region was a self-governing entity. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-kashmir-is-still-ensnared-in-conflict-after-70-years-85202">Why Kashmir is still ensnared in conflict after 70 years</a>
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<h2>View from Pakistan</h2>
<p>Kashmir is central to Pakistan’s national identity as a Muslim state, and therefore it represents unfinished business after the 1947 partition.</p>
<p>Pakistan launched another war against India in 1965, which caused thousands of casualties on both sides. Hostilities between the two countries ended after a diplomatic intervention by the Soviet Union and the United States and a UN-mandated ceasefire. </p>
<p>The 1965 war, the 1971 Indian intervention in Pakistan’s civil war, and the subsequent creation of Bangladesh led to more changes to the territorial borders in Kashmir. The ceasefire line is now designated as the Line of Control (LoC). </p>
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<span class="caption">The Line of Control divides the Indian and Pakistani territories of Kashmir.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0e/Kashmir_map.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
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<p>Since the 1990s, Pakistan has <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/files/LeT_menace.pdf">supported militant groups</a> such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) to attack Indian security forces and civilians. </p>
<h2>View from India</h2>
<p>Kashmir has also been central to India’s national narrative of <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/1938-01-01/unity-india">unity in diversity</a> propagated by leaders of the independence movement, Jawaharlal Nehru and Mahatma Gandhi. Indian leaders have <a href="http://ashutoshvarshney.net/wp-content/files_mf/as_1991.pdf">often projected</a> the accommodation of a Muslim majority state in the J&K region as proof of Indian secular democracy.</p>
<p>India’s <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/thehindu/2001/06/26/stories/13260611.htm">official position</a> considers the whole of undivided Kashmir as a part of India. And India has not consistently upheld J&K’s constitutionally-guaranteed autonomy. Political instability in the state has been compounded by interference from the Indian government. Indian armed forces in the area have often used force against civilians. </p>
<p>In the 1990s, this led to a mass uprising and insurgency among the Kashmiri population in India. Pakistan exploited this discontent, offering arms, training and funds to both Pakistan-based and local Kashmiri militants. </p>
<p>The insurgency in Indian Kashmir eased in 2003, with a ceasefire and the initiation of an India-Pakistan peace process that led to a relative period of calm. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-conflict-is-not-just-a-border-dispute-between-india-and-pakistan-112824">Kashmir conflict is not just a border dispute between India and Pakistan</a>
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<p>The peace process came to an end after the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, carried out by the LeT. But India’s policy of strategic restraint and pressure on Pakistan by the United States to address militancy prevented a worsening of hostilities. </p>
<p>A new government came to power in India in 2014, led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. The leadership’s approach to Pakistan and Kashmir has been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/30/world/asia/kashmir-india-pakistan.html">significantly different</a> from the previous administration, with more emphasis on curbing dissent in J&K and using pre-emptive strikes across the LoC against militant groups in Pakistan’s territory.</p>
<p>Local discontent in Indian Kashmir has also led to an increase in militancy since 2014 with more Pakistani support and a combination of rising local recruitment and an influx of foreign militants. </p>
<h2>What does this mean?</h2>
<p>The rules of engagement between India and Pakistan are changing. India’s “pre-emptive” air strikes in February were a significant shift away from the previous policy of strategic restraint. This is the first time since the dispute emerged that India has targeted militants inside Pakistani territory.</p>
<p>Pakistan chose to escalate tensions further, a move that had previously been prevented by the US. Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, has reiterated his desire for dialogue with India. But ceasefire violations across the LoC and the international border have <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-pakistan-army-ceasefire-violation-loc-pulwama-terror-attack-1474245-2019-03-09">continued unabated</a> since February 14k, with both sides reporting civilian casualties.</p>
<p>Diplomatic pressure from the UN and the rest of the international community has forced the Pakistani government to ban some militant groups. Yet, it continues to deny that JeM is active in Pakistan. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, tensions with Pakistan are playing well into Indian Prime Minister <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/will-hunt-down-terrorists-on-their-own-turf-says-pm-modi-in-gujarat/story-RpUWQHArkmpfFlmT31vZpK.html">Narendra Modi’s promotion</a> of being a “strong leader”, capable of protecting the country from its enemies. This is all part of the strategy leading up to the coming elections. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-india-and-pakistans-escalating-conflict-will-benefit-narendra-modi-ahead-of-elections-112570">Kashmir: India and Pakistan's escalating conflict will benefit Narendra Modi ahead of elections</a>
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<p>The escalatory responses by both governments have shown the actions of the two countries are becoming more difficult to control, particularly with the United States’ lack of involvement in defusing tensions as it disengages from the region.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It started on February, 14 when a suicide attack killed more than 40 people in the Indian controlled part of Kashmir. Now, Pakistan and India’s conflict over the disputed region is heating up again.Stuti Bhatnagar, Adjunct Fellow, University of AdelaidePriya Chacko, Senior Lecturer in International Politics, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.