tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/ivory-ban-31493/articlesivory ban – The Conversation2022-11-18T16:46:56Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1922932022-11-18T16:46:56Z2022-11-18T16:46:56ZJapan’s ivory market is no longer a threat to elephant populations – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494490/original/file-20221109-13740-m6eil9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ivory poaching is threatening regional elephant populations.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/herd-wild-elephants-walk-through-savanna-1859164087">MPH Photos/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elephants feature heavily in mythology, religion and popular culture. Yet they are hunted for their ivory tusks. Ivory poaching has led to a <a href="https://tsavotrust.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/IUCN-AFRICAN-ELEPHANT-STATUS-REPORT-2016.pdf">70% decline</a> in African elephant numbers over the past 40 years. </p>
<p>Ivory has always been a prized commodity. It has served a variety of purposes, from use in traditional medicines to musical instruments. More recently, ivory is carved into jewellery and ornaments and used primarily for decoration. </p>
<p>But the international ivory trade was banned under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (Cites) in 1989. One hundred and eighty-four countries are now bound by this agreement. However, some legal domestic markets persist, undermining efforts to stop the ivory trade. Over <a href="https://cites.org/eng/ETIS_reports_record_ivory_seizures_2019_CITES_TRAFFIC_24032021">42 tonnes</a> of illegal ivory were seized worldwide in 2019, the fourth highest annual tally in the past 30 years.</p>
<p>Yet Japan, which between 1979 and 1989 was responsible for <a href="https://www.traffic.org/publications/reports/setting-suns/">roughly one-third</a> of the global ivory trade and still possesses a legal domestic market, has seen a dramatic reduction in ivory demand. By 2014, the annual value of the Japanese ivory industry was just <a href="https://www.traffic.org/publications/reports/setting-suns/">13%</a> of what it was in 1989.</p>
<p>Various factors have been heralded for reducing Japanese ivory demand, but a lack of data on ivory purchases and consumer motivations has limited research into the cause of this change. We conducted a <a href="https://conservationandsociety.org.in/aheadofprint.asp">study</a> to determine which factors were influential in reducing Japanese ivory demand.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A timeline of events from 1980 to 2008 documenting important events in the rise and fall of the Japanese ivory market." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494476/original/file-20221109-11074-oqm1eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494476/original/file-20221109-11074-oqm1eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=190&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494476/original/file-20221109-11074-oqm1eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=190&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494476/original/file-20221109-11074-oqm1eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=190&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494476/original/file-20221109-11074-oqm1eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=239&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494476/original/file-20221109-11074-oqm1eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=239&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494476/original/file-20221109-11074-oqm1eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=239&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Timeline of important events relating to the ivory trade in Japan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What has driven the change?</h2>
<p>For this, we carried out an impact evaluation. We compiled a list of 35 potentially important factors that could have led to a fall in Japanese demand for ivory. These included the Cites international ivory trade ban, pressure from leading conservationists, Japan’s economic recession, and targeted demand reduction campaigns.</p>
<p>We then interviewed 35 people with expertise in the Japanese ivory trade, including academics, NGO workers, members of the Japanese government and ivory traders and carvers. We asked them, based on their expert knowledge, whether they thought each of the factors may have affected ivory demand, and how. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A diagram showing which factors have been influential in driving the reduction in Japanese demand for ivory." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494478/original/file-20221109-11137-zyiqph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494478/original/file-20221109-11137-zyiqph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=728&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494478/original/file-20221109-11137-zyiqph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=728&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494478/original/file-20221109-11137-zyiqph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=728&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494478/original/file-20221109-11137-zyiqph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494478/original/file-20221109-11137-zyiqph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494478/original/file-20221109-11137-zyiqph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Overall theory of change, illustrating the major and minor drivers that led to reduced demand for ivory products in Japan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After eliminating less plausible explanations, we looked for supporting evidence. Our analysis indicated that the Cites international trade ban and a domestic economic recession, that started in 1992 and led to a period of economic stagnation, were the main reasons for the reduction in Japanese demand. Both factors were cited by all of the interviewees as having the largest impact. They reduced both the amount of ivory that was available to purchase and people’s ability to afford it.</p>
<p>These factors provided the initial stimulus. But other cultural factors, including the societal shift away from flaunting expensive goods following the recession, accelerated the reduction in demand.</p>
<p>Interviewees also indicated that demand for ivory in Japan was relatively passive. If ivory was available for sale, people would buy it, but if it were scarce they would not seek it out. This contrasts with countries such as China, which have seen <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989418302518">thriving informal markets</a> develop to satisfy demand following the international trade ban.</p>
<p>Conservationists often point to targeted <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/environmental-conservation/article/abs/ivory-trade-and-elephant-conservation/11AA17383DA8020753C862F226151F88">demand reduction campaigns</a> as key in reducing Japanese ivory demand. Our analysis instead suggests that they played a secondary role in bringing about change. </p>
<p>There was little evidence to suggest that these campaigns influenced consumers directly. But they were effective in placing indirect pressure on retailers to stop supplying ivory. This further reduced the availability of ivory products in shops.</p>
<h2>Conservation is not always intentional</h2>
<p>Given the long-term reduction in Japanese ivory demand, our analysis concluded that Japan’s ivory market no longer represents a threat to elephant populations. Yet it remains important to prevent illegal exports to countries where ivory is still highly valued. It would also be useful to track consumer data over time to see how demand fluctuates with Japan’s economic cycle.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494492/original/file-20221109-16841-77qqxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men standing next to a table of seized illegal ivory." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494492/original/file-20221109-16841-77qqxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494492/original/file-20221109-16841-77qqxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494492/original/file-20221109-16841-77qqxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494492/original/file-20221109-16841-77qqxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494492/original/file-20221109-16841-77qqxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494492/original/file-20221109-16841-77qqxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494492/original/file-20221109-16841-77qqxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Informal ivory markets still flourish in many countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bangkok-thailandaugust-26-2015-government-officials-1891060885">topten22photo/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our study supports the view that conservation outcomes are context-specific and often determined by changes unrelated to the natural environment. The introduction of the Cites international trade ban coincided with Japan’s economic recession and accelerated Japan’s cultural shift away from conspicuous ivory consumption. Without this, a flourishing informal market may have been established.</p>
<p>By exploiting passive demand, environmental campaigns to pressure retailers into stocking fewer ivory products also proved effective. This offers an insight into why the international trade ban has proved less successful in reducing ivory demand in other countries.</p>
<p>Conservationists need to better understand local conditions and listen to local voices when designing policies. Researchers and practitioners must also track wider market changes, such as recessions or shifts away from conspicuous consumption, to anticipate any potential impact on specific trades. The lessons of this study may also apply to other wildlife trades with similar motivational drivers in Japan. These include ornamental bekko (turtle shell) or luxury timber.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192293/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diogo Veríssimo is affiliated with the Oxford Martin Programme on the Wildlife Trade. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bob Smith, Laura Thomas-Walters, and Takahiro Kubo do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Japan was one of the world’s largest ivory markets – research explains why the country is no longer a key destination for the product.Laura Thomas-Walters, Postdoctoral Scholar in Fisheries and Wildlife, University of StirlingBob Smith, Director, Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, University of KentDiogo Veríssimo, Research Fellow in Conservation Marketing, University of OxfordTakahiro Kubo, Senior Researcher in National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) & Visiting Researcher in ICCS, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1373432020-06-17T12:16:03Z2020-06-17T12:16:03ZCan Asia end its uncontrolled consumption of wildlife? Here’s how North America did it a century ago<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341961/original/file-20200615-65930-1b0hqax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C0%2C3916%2C2608&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Burning confiscated elephant ivory and animal horns in Myanmar's first public display of action against the illegal wildlife trade, Oct. 4, 2018.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/elephant-ivory-and-animal-horns-burn-during-a-ceremony-to-news-photo/1045308816?adppopup=true">Ye Aung Thu/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It was a dark time for animals. Poaching was rampant. Wild birds and mammals were <a href="https://archive.macleans.ca/article/1950/10/15/how-we-massacred-the-passenger-pigeon">being slaughtered by the thousands</a>. An out-of-control wildlife trade was making once-common animals <a href="https://www.americanheritage.com/return-white-tailed-deer#1">hard to find</a> and pushing rare species into extinction.</p>
<p>This is the story of North America a century ago, and of Asia today. But there was a surprise ending in America, and I believe there could be one in Asia. </p>
<p>Today North America has abundant wildlife. Much of my research as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Rd3MdDkAAAAJ&hl=en&authuser=1">wildlife biologist</a> focuses on documenting the rebound of species that once were hunted into scarcity, including <a href="https://www.fws.gov/home/wolfrecovery/">wolves</a>, <a href="https://faculty.cnr.ncsu.edu/christophersdeperno/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2019/07/PR138-Bragina-Coyotes-and-deer-JWM.pdf">deer</a> and <a href="https://zslpublications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acv.12138?casa_token=p6gRc5gsjH0AAAAA%3A2012rwgyWCqzsSYTDTxwBGpoTs_Zi2IYme7qwmQVFjTAdGVCsRnLWU__a5EQDQcJBAplMtmsdQAXQg">fishers</a>. </p>
<p>This is the outcome of what I call the North American wildlife conservation miracle. A century ago, with many species on the brink of extinction, people here stopped overusing wildlife and created a new culture of conservation.</p>
<p>Today unregulated wildlife trade in Asia is decimating species in much of the world, and now even threatens humans through the likely <a href="https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02571158/document">spillover of the SARS-CoV-2 virus</a> from bats or pangolins to humans. Suddenly the harm caused by this rampant wildlife trade is in the spotlight, which creates an opportunity to pull off a conservation miracle in Asia. I hope lessons from the American experience can help.</p>
<h2>Out-of-control wildlife trade</h2>
<p>In the late 1800s and early 1900s the seemingly endless bounty of America’s wildlife began to run out. By 1878, three northeast species – the <a href="https://www.fieldguidetoextinctbirds.com/?p=3101">Labrador duck</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/04/science/great-auks-extinction.html">great auk</a> and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jmammal/article/88/2/371/833360">sea mink</a> – went extinct. The <a href="https://www.pgc.pa.gov/Wildlife/WildlifeSpecies/Elk/Pages/HistoryofElkinPA.aspx">eastern elk</a>, the largest mammal in most eastern states, followed in the 1880s. Even highly resilient species like <a href="https://www.americanheritage.com/return-white-tailed-deer#1">white-tailed deer</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/videos/2019/4/23/18511314/canada-goose-history">Canada goose</a> declined sharply. Bison once numbered 30 million, but were down to a <a href="https://www.fws.gov/bisonrange/timeline.htm">few hundred</a> animals by the late 1880s. </p>
<p>The pioneer delusion of endless bounty was replaced by an acceptance that there was nothing they could do about it. American settlers had a “manifest destiny” mindset, believing they were destined to expand across the continent, and accepted that the loss of other species was an inevitable consequence of that. </p>
<p>Then the bison didn’t go extinct. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341960/original/file-20200615-65956-1qaekg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341960/original/file-20200615-65956-1qaekg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341960/original/file-20200615-65956-1qaekg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341960/original/file-20200615-65956-1qaekg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341960/original/file-20200615-65956-1qaekg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341960/original/file-20200615-65956-1qaekg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341960/original/file-20200615-65956-1qaekg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341960/original/file-20200615-65956-1qaekg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘The Christmas Season,’ 1878, an engraving by Arthur Burdett Frost of a wild game stand at New York City’s Fulton Market showing a bear, deer and many types of birds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://digitalcollections.nypl.org/items/510d47e0-d81e-a3d9-e040-e00a18064a99">NYPL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Back from the brink</h2>
<p>For some Americans, <a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/the-president-who-saved-the-american-bison/">including Theodore Roosevelt</a>, the prospect of erasing an iconic species like bison was a call to action. They formed the <a href="http://www.ambisonsociety.org/">American Bison Society</a>, which bred bison at New York’s Bronx Zoo and shipped them west in hope of repopulating their former ranges.</p>
<p>As president, Roosevelt helped create some of the <a href="https://www.nps.gov/thro/learn/historyculture/theodore-roosevelt-and-conservation.htm">first national wildlife refuges</a> and signed <a href="https://www.fws.gov/international/laws-treaties-agreements/us-conservation-laws/lacey-act.html">laws</a> restricting the wildlife trade. But the bulk of the work was done by states and individuals. </p>
<p>Americans spoke out against large-scale hunting. George Bird Grinnell, editor of the sporting journal Forest and Stream, used the magazine as a platform to <a href="https://academic.oup.com/envhis/article-abstract/22/3/553/3778210">call for protecting birds</a>. Grinnell later teamed with Teddy Roosevelt to create the <a href="https://www.boone-crockett.org/">Boone and Crockett Club</a>, a group of conservation-minded hunters. Two Boston socialites, <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/how-two-women-ended-the-deadly-feather-trade-23187277/">Harriet Hemenway and Minna Hall</a>, formed the Massachusetts Audubon Society and worked to end the custom of adorning ladies’ hats with plumes from wild birds. </p>
<p>By the 1930s every state had a <a href="https://www.fws.gov/laws/lawsdigest/FAWILD.HTML">wildlife agency</a> funded by taxes and hunting license fees. These agencies shut down most wildlife harvests, protected and restored habitat and reintroduced animals that had been eradicated, such as turkeys and otters.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341963/original/file-20200615-65956-kkqlad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341963/original/file-20200615-65956-kkqlad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341963/original/file-20200615-65956-kkqlad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341963/original/file-20200615-65956-kkqlad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341963/original/file-20200615-65956-kkqlad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341963/original/file-20200615-65956-kkqlad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341963/original/file-20200615-65956-kkqlad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341963/original/file-20200615-65956-kkqlad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first U.S. ‘duck stamp,’ issued by the federal government in 1934. Purchase of a current duck stamp is required to hunt migratory waterbirds, with proceeds funding migratory bird conservation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.fws.gov/birds/get-involved/duck-stamp/federal-duck-stamp-gallery-1934-1935.php">USFWS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When hunting resumed, states managed when it could take place and how many animals a person could harvest. Ecology was a new field, and scientists like <a href="https://www.aldoleopold.org/about/aldo-leopold/">Aldo Leopold</a> adapted its principles to create wildlife management as a new branch of study that could help inform these regulations.</p>
<p>Today deer, turkey, bear, elk, ducks and geese <a href="http://www.jimsterba.com/">are abundant</a> in many parts of North America. State governments carefully regulate harvests. Wildlife is not sold commercially for food in the U.S., unlike <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/13/australias-kangaroo-cull-humane-and-sustainable-or-exercise-in-cruelty">Australia</a> and <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/animalproducts/game_en">much of Europe</a>. Trapping and sale of fur-bearing animals like beaver and fisher is <a href="https://www.fishwildlife.org/afwa-inspires/furbearer-management">managed sustainably</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, wildlife conservation in North America still faces serious challenges, including <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw1313">habitat loss</a>, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2019/07/wolverines-battling-climate-change-shrinking-north-territory-feature/">climate change</a> and <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/mercurys_silent_toll_on_the_worlds_wildlife">pollution</a>. But unsustainable hunting is no longer a problem, and legal hunting helps fund conservation for all species. </p>
<h2>Will Asia stop eating wildlife?</h2>
<p>Over the last 20 years, demand for wildlife products in Asia has driven a collapse of animal populations there, as well as in Africa and Latin America. Most larger mammal species outside of North America today are <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1165115">primarily threatened by poaching</a> for food, art and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2014/08/08/extinction-by-traditional-chinese-medicine-an-environmental-disaster/#6e8a50565bd3">traditional medicines of dubious effectiveness</a>. </p>
<p>But it seems no species have been safe from this scourge. Consumers will pay high prices for exotic dishes like <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3001927/chinese-cooking-star-kills-and-chops-rare-giant-salamander">braised salamander</a> and soup made from the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/02/09/466185043/chinese-taste-for-fish-bladder-threatens-tiny-porpoise-in-mexico">swim bladder of the totoaba, a giant Mexican fish</a>. </p>
<p>Conservationists hope to seize on the tragedy of the SARS-Cov-2 spillover to end the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-new-coronavirus-emerged-from-the-global-wildlife-trade-and-may-be-devastating-enough-to-end-it-133333">global wildlife trade</a>, or at least <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-a-blanket-ban-on-wildlife-trade-would-not-be-the-right-response-135746">regulate it more tightly.</a> What lessons can the North American experience offer? </p>
<p>First, it is critical to reduce demand. This was a <a href="http://wildlifehabitat.tamu.edu/Lessons/Habitat-Concepts-1/Readings/A-Conservation-Timeline.pdf">slow process</a> a century ago. But COVID-19 has cast a stigma on wildlife products that could help turn the tide in Asia, just as public shaming in the U.S. helped end demand for things like <a href="http://eustis.estate/location/on-the-wing/">feather hats</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/7a69d5168701e7b1eb26e37576f1cec7">fur from spotted cats</a>. </p>
<p>Today animal welfare advocates are using social media to urge Asian consumers to avoid products made from endangered animals. In response to efforts like these, China <a href="https://hongkongfp.com/2017/12/27/basketball-star-yao-ming-joins-calls-stop-ivory-trade-china-ban-set-kick-sunday/">banned domestic sales of ivory in 2017</a>, and Chinese <a href="https://wildaid.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/WildAid-Sharks-in-Crisis-2018.pdf">consumption of shark fin soup</a> has declined sharply over the past decade.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wcjBy0fyGl0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Former NBA star Yao Ming has campaigned for a decade to reduce Chinese demand for wildlife products.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Second, this effort will involve many players, including national governments, regional authorities and nongoverment organizations like <a href="https://www.svw.vn/">Save Vietnam’s Wildlife</a>, <a href="http://batconservationindia.org/">Bat Conservation India Trust</a> and <a href="https://www.savepangolins.org/about-us">Save Pangolins</a>. These groups understand local culture and politics, and can connect directly with communities where wildlife is hunted and sold.</p>
<p>Finally, we need some optimism. The persistence of the bison a century ago showed Americans that extinction wasn’t the only option. It is important now to <a href="https://www.wildlifeinsights.org/covid-19-message">monitor wildlife populations</a> so that efforts can target species most at risk, and to celebrate recoveries that might be early signs of a second conservation miracle.</p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137343/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roland Kays receives funding from The National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>In the 1800s, Americans hunted many wild species near or into extinction. Then in the early 1900s, the US shifted from uncontrolled consumption of wildlife to conservation. Could Asia follow suit?Roland Kays, Research Associate Professor of Wildlife and Scientist at NC Museum of Natural Sciences, North Carolina State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1098572019-02-07T11:33:55Z2019-02-07T11:33:55ZWhy stop at plastic bags and straws? The case for a global treaty banning most single-use plastics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257614/original/file-20190206-174867-1gwu8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Joyce Njeri, 8, walks amidst garbage and plastic bags in the Dandora slum of Nairobi, Kenya. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Kenya-Plastic-Bag-Ban/499cd961c222471b9aafeba2b3d23a44/39/0">AP Photo/Ben Curtis, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Single-use plastics are a blessing and a curse. They have fueled a revolution in commercial and consumer convenience and improved hygiene standards, but also have saturated the world’s coastlines and clogged landfills. By one estimate 79 percent of all plastic ever produced is now in a dump, a landfill or the environment, and only <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700782">9 percent has been recycled</a>. </p>
<p>This growing legacy poses real risks. Plastic packaging is clogging city sewer systems, leading to flooding. Abandoned plastic goods create breeding grounds for mosquitoes, and can leach toxic additives such as <a href="https://toxtown.nlm.nih.gov/chemicals-and-contaminants/styrene">styrene</a> and <a href="https://toxtown.nlm.nih.gov/chemicals-and-contaminants/benzene">benzene</a> as they decompose. Single-use plastics are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/04/animals-birds-plastic-waste-rspca">killing birds</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060409">harming marine life</a>. </p>
<p>I study <a href="https://www.uidaho.edu/law/news/features/2013/anastasia-telesetsky">international environmental law</a> with a focus on <a href="https://doi.org/10.15779/Z38656G">marine ecosystems</a>. In my view, land-based pollution from single-use plastics is <a href="https://digitalcommons.law.uidaho.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1041&context=faculty_scholarship">a slow-onset disaster</a> that demands a global response. </p>
<p>One attractive strategy is pursuing a legally binding phase-out of most single-use plastics at the global level. I believe this approach makes sense because it would build on current national and municipal efforts to eliminate single-use packaging, and would create opportunities for new small and medium-sized businesses to develop more benign substitutes.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257634/original/file-20190207-174890-amvv85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257634/original/file-20190207-174890-amvv85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257634/original/file-20190207-174890-amvv85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257634/original/file-20190207-174890-amvv85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257634/original/file-20190207-174890-amvv85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257634/original/file-20190207-174890-amvv85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257634/original/file-20190207-174890-amvv85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257634/original/file-20190207-174890-amvv85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plastic bag litter along the Jukskei River, Johannesburg, South Africa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/57/Plastic_bag-Litter-001.jpg">NJR ZA/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Single-use plastic bans</h2>
<p>About 112 countries, states and cities around the world have already imposed bans on various single-use plastic goods. Of these measures, <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/25496/singleUsePlastic_sustainability.pdf?isAllowed=y&sequence=1">57 are national and 25 are in Africa</a>. And the list of these restrictions <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/07/ocean-plastic-pollution-solutions/">continues to grow</a>.</p>
<p>Most of these bans target thin single-use plastic carrier bags or imports of non-biodegradable bags. Some, such as the one in <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=2ahUKEwiI6IOn25bgAhUD44MKHbphCyMQFjACegQIBxAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cep.unep.org%2Fmeetings%2Fdocuments%2F0b404dc465a9e115e589fe685e67a76e%2F%40%40download%2Fen_file%2FWG.39_INF.8_Report_on_the_Status_of_Plastics_and_Styrofoam_Bans_in_the_WCR-en.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0VkWKfnyPJDkHC1vW7cyX2">Antigua-Barbuda</a>, include other single-use or problematic items, such as foam coolers and plastic utensils. A few measures – notably, <a href="http://www.kenyalaw.org/lex//actview.xql?actid=No.%208%20of%201999">Kenya’s plastic bag law</a> – impose stiff punishments on violators, including jail time and fines of up to US$38,000.</p>
<p>Groups of states are starting to enact regional policies. The <a href="http://www.eala.org/">East African Legislative Assembly</a> has passed a bill to ban the manufacture, sale, import and use of certain plastic bags across its six member states, with a combined population of approximately 186 million people. And in October 2018 the <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20181018IPR16524/plastic-oceans-meps-back-eu-ban-on-throwaway-plastics-by-2021">European Union Parliament</a> approved a ban on a number of single-use plastic items by 2021, along with a requirement to reduce plastic in food packaging by 25 percent by 2025 and cut plastic content in cigarette filters 80 percent by 2030. </p>
<p>Most of these bans are quite new or still being implemented, so there is limited research on how well they work. However, researchers at the United Nations who have reviewed 60 “national bans and levies” estimate that 30 percent of these measures have reduced consumption of <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/25496/singleUsePlastic_sustainability.pdf?isAllowed=y&sequence=1">plastics</a>. </p>
<p>Plastics manufacturers contend that <a href="https://www.plasticsindustry.org/supply-chain/sustainability">better recycling</a> is the most effective way to reduce the environmental impact of their products. But many factors make it <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-plastic-waste-crisis-is-an-opportunity-for-the-us-to-get-serious-about-recycling-at-home-93254">hard to recycle plastic</a>, from its physical characteristics to insufficient market demand for many types of recycled plastics. In many instances, single-use plastics can only be recycled, optimistically, <a href="http://microdyneplastics.com/2018/02/hdpe-can-recycled-least-10-times/">10 times</a> before their fibers become too short to be reprocessed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257526/original/file-20190206-174867-116r591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257526/original/file-20190206-174867-116r591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257526/original/file-20190206-174867-116r591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257526/original/file-20190206-174867-116r591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257526/original/file-20190206-174867-116r591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257526/original/file-20190206-174867-116r591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257526/original/file-20190206-174867-116r591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257526/original/file-20190206-174867-116r591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Estimated number of new regulations on single-use plastics entering into force at the national level worldwide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/25496/singleUsePlastic_sustainability.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">UNEP</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons from other global bans</h2>
<p>Several global bans and product phase-outs offer lessons for a treaty banning single-use plastic goods. The most successful case is the 1987 <a href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/publication/unts/volume%201522/volume-1522-i-26369-english.pdf">Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer</a>. This treaty phased out production and use of chlorofluorocarbons in a variety of products, including refrigerators and spray cans, after they were shown to <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-earths-ozone-layer-still-at-risk-5-questions-answered-91470">harm Earth’s protective ozone layer</a>.</p>
<p>Today scientists predict that stratospheric ozone concentrations will rebound to 1980 levels by the middle of this century. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the Montreal Protocol has <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-12/documents/mp30_report_final_508v3.pdf">prevented millions of cases of skin cancer and cataracts</a> from exposure to ultraviolet radiation. In 2016 nations adopted the <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/news/kigali-amendment-montreal-protocol-another-global-commitment-stop-climate">Kigali Amendment</a>, which will phase out production and use of hydrofluorocarbons, another class of ozone-depleting chemicals. </p>
<p>Why has the Montreal Protocol worked so well? One key factor is that <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ozone-layer-protection/international-actions-montreal-protocol-substances-deplete-ozone-layer">every nation in the world has joined it</a>. They did so because alternative materials were available to substitute for chlorofluorocarbons. The treaty also provided financial support to countries that needed help transitioning away from the banned substances. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OINKJNWtSiE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Sir David Attenborough narrates the extraordinary history of the Montreal Protocol.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Where countries trying to reduce use of these chemicals fell short of their goals, the Protocol provided institutional support rather than punishing them. But it also included the option to impose trade sanctions on nations that refused to cooperate. </p>
<p>Another pact, the 2001 <a href="http://chm.pops.int/Portals/0/download.aspx?d=UNEP-POPS-COP-CONVTEXT-2009.En.pdf">Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants</a>, banned or severely limited production and use of certain chemicals that threatened human and environmental health, including specific insecticides and industrial chemicals. Today 182 nations have signed the treaty. Concentrations of several dangerous POPs in the Arctic, where global air and water currents tend to concentrate them, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.268">have declined</a>. </p>
<p>Nations have added new chemicals to the list and created “<a href="http://chm.pops.int/Implementation/IndustrialPOPs/PCBs/PCBEliminationNetwork/PENOverview/tabid/438/Default.aspx">elimination networks</a>” to help members phase out use of dangerous materials such as PCBs. And producers of goods such as semiconductors and carpets that use listed chemicals are working to develop new, safer processes. </p>
<p>Even though the United States has not signed the Stockholm Convention, U.S. companies have <a href="https://www.epa.gov/international-cooperation/persistent-organic-pollutants-global-issue-global-response">largely eliminated production</a> of the chemicals that the treaty regulates. This shows that setting a global standard may encourage nations to conform in order to maintain access to global markets. </p>
<p>Other international bans have been less successful. In 1989, seeking to reduce the slaughter of elephants for their tusks, parties to the <a href="https://www.cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/disc/CITES-Convention-EN.pdf">Convention in Trade of Endangered Species</a> banned ivory sales by ending trade in African elephant parts. Initially demand for ivory fell, but in 1999 and 2008 treaty states allowed African nations to sell ivory stockpiles to Japan and China, ostensibly to fund conservation. These two sales reignited global demand for ivory and created <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/azp030">unregulated domestic markets</a> that stimulated high levels of poaching. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257549/original/file-20190206-174883-w0kq5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257549/original/file-20190206-174883-w0kq5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257549/original/file-20190206-174883-w0kq5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257549/original/file-20190206-174883-w0kq5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257549/original/file-20190206-174883-w0kq5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257549/original/file-20190206-174883-w0kq5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257549/original/file-20190206-174883-w0kq5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257549/original/file-20190206-174883-w0kq5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Malaysian customs officials display smuggled tusks seized at Kuala Lumpur International Airport in 2017. Demand for ivory continues to fuel poaching and illegal trade despite an international ban on sales of elephant parts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Malaysia-Tusks/e0a70bc9cc814dcf8d86cb899041d122/31/0">AP Photo/Vincent Thian</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An opportunity to lead</h2>
<p>What lessons do these treaties offer for curbing plastic pollution? The Montreal Protocol shows that bans can work where substitute products are available, but require reliable monitoring and the threat of sanctions to deter cheating. The Stockholm Convention suggests that industries will innovate to meet global production challenges. And struggles to curb the ivory trade offer a cautionary message about allowing exceptions to global bans. </p>
<p>I believe the rapid spread of single-use plastic bans shows that enough political support exists to launch negotiations toward a global treaty. Emerging economies such as Kenya that are aggressively tackling the problem are especially well placed to take a lead at the U.N. General Assembly in calling for talks on stemming the tide of plastic pollution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109857/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anastasia Telesetsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Dozens of cities, states and nations are enacting bans and restrictions on single-use plastic bags and other items. A legal expert explains how a global treaty could build on these efforts.Anastasia Telesetsky, Professor of International Environmental Law , University of IdahoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/964892018-05-21T15:23:09Z2018-05-21T15:23:09ZHow to break the impasse between opposing camps in ivory trade debate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219591/original/file-20180518-42203-1nt0kor.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Conservationists are at loggerheads about how to save elephants from poaching.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Dai Kurokawa</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elephants are in an extremely precarious state in both Africa and Asia. Demand for ivory from Africa has caused significant declines in wild populations. This is now accompanied by <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194113">new demand for elephant skins</a> from Asia.</p>
<p>Resuming trade in elephant parts continues to be one proposal for improving conservation outcomes. But the contention that legal trade will curb poaching is not substantiated by available data. In the modern human economic era, there are few examples of wild animals larger than cattle being sustainably harvested. </p>
<p>Both those who propose a resumption in ivory trade, and those, like us, who oppose it, want to ensure elephants survive. We also want to foster equitable development in elephant range states. This is a necessary condition for achieving any conservation objective. But we are not convinced that sufficient evidence exists to support the use of market mechanisms as a principal conservation tool. Instead, the emphasis should shift towards policy measures supported by existing evidence to break the impasse. </p>
<p>Several of our biggest concerns about resuming trade are the following: ivory markets are concentrated and controlled by organised criminal syndicates that can <a href="https://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-economics/highlighted-articles/to-stop-poaching-ivory-ban-must-be-permanent">manipulate the price</a>. They are not competitive. Similarly, ivory products are highly differentiated and constantly evolving. The fact is that price dynamics are not likely to follow the theoretical predictions of simplistic economic models. This reality has not been adequately addressed by proponents of market based policy instruments.</p>
<p>Sociopolitical realities of source and demand countries may also not be favourable to market approaches. The <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0308597X82900653">sorry history of commercial whaling</a> provides key insights that are often ignored in discussions of elephants, tigers, vicuña and bears. Commercial harvesting all too easily degenerates into a commons tragedy. Elephants are not exempt. </p>
<p>Debates on the ivory trade ban too often focus on differences in people’s core values rather than on how to achieve shared objectives. This merely perpetuates the impasse, as it has in other conservation debates over implementing tough policies. We believe there are ways to break this cycle.</p>
<h2>Opposing camps</h2>
<p>In recent pieces in the journal <a href="https://carlycookresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/biggs-et-al-2017-science.pdf">Science</a> and in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-overcome-fierce-debates-about-banning-all-trade-in-ivory-95318">The Conversation</a>, authors strongly propose bringing back regulated ivory sales. </p>
<p>Opponents of this approach – like us – are designated as “prohibitionists”. But pejorative labelling doesn’t produce hard evidence to suggest that regulated ivory sales have improved livelihoods or the status of elephants.</p>
<p>South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe favour the reintroduction of a legalised ivory trade. The argument is typically that countries with well-managed populations should not be punished by others’ failure. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/oryx/article/status-of-african-elephant-loxodonta-africana-populations-in-south-africa/1164A762534C3CB410B05A106AD96C80">a study just published</a> in the conservation journal <em>Oryx</em>, shows that 77% of South Africa’s 78 discrete reserves that host elephants have populations of fewer than 100 elephants. This implies that they are not genetically viable. Habitat fragmentation is the primary problem, not ivory trade prohibition. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, poverty and marginalisation <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-fight-against-poaching-must-shift-to-empowering-communities-83828">remain strong features</a> for people living in the vicinity of most – if not all – conservation areas.</p>
<h2>Poverty traps</h2>
<p>There are few examples of communities escaping the poverty trap in a durable way through the exploitation of wildlife resources. The wildlife trade is no exception. </p>
<p>Efforts to legalise ivory trade haven’t translated into improved conditions for people living close to elephants. No published evidence shows that funds raised from sales in the four countries that sold ivory on a one-off basis – since the 1989 international ban – have translated into improved food security, education, well-being or equity. </p>
<p>And it’s clear that <a href="http://www.saiia.org.za/occasional-papers/ensuring-elephant-survival-through-improving-community-benefits">no amount of ivory trade revenue is likely to solve the difficulty</a> of ensuring that benefits are distributed equitably. </p>
<p>Livelihoods can be improved without trading in threatened species. Some of these are set out in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Reforming agricultural and trade policies;</p></li>
<li><p>Tapping into indigenous knowledge systems for solutions;</p></li>
<li><p>Educating girls, and involving women in decision-making;</p></li>
<li><p>Improving habitat connectivity as fragmentation exacerbates negative human-elephant interactions and escalates remediation expense;</p></li>
<li><p>Encouraging projects that help increase people’s tolerance of wildlife. This can be done by mitigating damage to human food crops – by, for example, using beehive fences to deter elephants – while boosting income; and</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29417">Wildlife-watching tourism</a> rather than consumptive activities like hunting elephants. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Recently proposed alternatives</h2>
<p>Some conservationists have recently proposed an alternative to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species <a href="https://www.cites.org/">(CITES)</a>. CITES is a rules-based consortium of countries that classify how vulnerable each listed species is to continued trade. Trade permission is restricted on that basis. Their proposed alternative is to use the Paris climate change negotiations as a model.</p>
<p>But we don’t think it’s <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6369/1378/tab-e-letters">appropriate</a> for reducing the illegal trade in ivory. One reason is that <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6386/276">it might</a> actually weaken the international capacity for collective action. The Paris Agreement gave way to a system of voluntary commitments. A similar devolution of commitment in the wildlife trade sphere could spell extinction for many species.</p>
<p>There may be other ways out of the impasse. One is to accept that the two sides may never reach total consensus. Environmental justice mechanisms suggest that while some parties may lose in negotiations, they will be more satisfied if they have had the opportunity to engage, state their case and have a voice. If evidence for – and consensus around – a ban on ivory trade continues to mount, all camps should still work together to creatively address the concerns of all elephant range states.</p>
<p>One model that demonstrates the value of collaboration is the <a href="http://camelid.org/en/species/vicuna/">Vicuña Convention</a>. First signed in 1969, it centred on restoring populations of a high-alpine South American camelid, the vicuña. The convention shows that disparate economic, cultural and social interests across multiple regions can be reconciled, and brought to the same table, in the spirit of achieving a legitimate negotiated outcome. </p>
<p>The convention - and the special provisions it generated under CITES - also illustrate that the non-lethal use of wildlife is far more likely to attain a long-lasting, international consensus. This is true even though it hasn’t worked perfectly. <a href="http://docplayer.net/36242851-Poaching-of-vicuna-and-the-illegal-commercialization-of-its-fiber-a-persisting-problem.html">Poaching has still increased in recent years</a> and populations are <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/poaching-upsurge-threatens-south-america-s-iconic-vicuna/">smaller</a> than they should be.</p>
<h2>A way forward</h2>
<p>Conservationists of differing persuasions agree that the greatest threats to elephants are habitat destruction and fragmentation, increased negative human-elephant interactions and demand for ivory. </p>
<p>Our view is that the conversation should move towards how demand can be reduced effectively. And to address the broader suite of threats, we would argue that diversifying discussions about improving livelihoods – by exploring alternatives to wildlife trade – would be the most prudent way forward.</p>
<p><em>Valued contributions to this article were also made by: Robert Hepworth, Senior Adviser to the David Shepherd Wildlife Foundation (UK), Alejandro Nadal, Professor of Economics at El Colegio de Mexico (Mexico), Andrew Dobson, Professor of Conservation Biology at Princeton University (NJ), and Samuel K. Wasser, Professor of Conservation Biology at University of Washington (WA).</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96489/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katarzyna Nowak is a Fellow with The Safina Center, a contractor with the Wildlife Conservation Society, and a Research Associate of the Department of Zoology and Entomology at the University of the Free State, Qwaqwa campus. She is a Scientific Advisor of the Southern Tanzania Elephant Program, that has received support from the African Elephant Conservation Fund, administered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, where Nowak was hosted from 2016-2017 as a AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benezeth Mutayoba is a 2014 National Geographic Society/Howard Buffet awardee and is employed as a Professor at Sokoine University of Agriculture in Tanzania. He is also actively involved in developing new forensic genetic tools for elephants and bushmeat as well as their institutionalisation in his country. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phyllis Lee has received past funding from National Geographic Foundation, the Carnegie Trust for Scottish Universities, and the Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.
She is the Director of Science for the Amboseli Trust for Elephants, the Chair of the Scientific Advisory Committee for the Kenya Wildlife Trust, and on the Board of Trustees for Space for Giants. She is an expert member of the BIAZA (UK) Elephant Welfare Group. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ross Harvey works for the South African Institute of International Affairs, which previously received funding for an elephant conservation project from Stop Ivory UK. </span></em></p>Improving livelihoods by exploring alternatives to wildlife trade would help to curb the poaching of threatened species like elephants.Katarzyna Nowak, Fellow at The Safina Center, Durham UniversityBenezeth Mutayoba, Professor of Biochemistry and Clinical Chemistry, Sokoine University of AgriculturePhyllis Lee, Professor, University of StirlingRoss Harvey, Senior Researcher in Natural Resource Governance (Africa), South African Institute of International AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/945932018-04-10T12:50:18Z2018-04-10T12:50:18ZFive ivory objects that will be exempt from a proposed trade ban<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213872/original/file-20180409-114128-yvvdmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shipilov77777 / www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Michael Gove first called for responses from the public to his plan to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-sets-out-plans-for-ivory-ban">ban ivory sales</a> back in October 2017, the environment secretary said a ban would “put the UK front and centre of global efforts to end the insidious trade in ivory”.</p>
<p>Four months and 127,607 consultation responses later, Defra (the UK’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) has published <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/696474/banning-ivory-consult-sum-resp.pdf">its own response</a>, confirming a ban will come into effect once legislation can be passed.</p>
<p>The law will close the “antiques exemption” in the current legislation, which allows for the sale of ivory <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-tory-u-turn-on-the-antique-ivory-trade-will-threaten-elephants-in-the-wild-78147">that was carved pre-1947</a>. The problem was that same exemption also enabled unscrupulous or unknowledgeable sellers to pass off illegal post-1947 ivory items as if they were older. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213589/original/file-20180406-125170-dmee7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213589/original/file-20180406-125170-dmee7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213589/original/file-20180406-125170-dmee7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213589/original/file-20180406-125170-dmee7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213589/original/file-20180406-125170-dmee7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213589/original/file-20180406-125170-dmee7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213589/original/file-20180406-125170-dmee7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213589/original/file-20180406-125170-dmee7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Might your antiques come from recent ivory?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Svetlana Foote/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The ivory trade won’t be entirely banned under the new regulations, however, and some exemptions will remain:</p>
<h2>1. Pianos</h2>
<p>Pianos fall under the first exemption, which relates to musical instruments made before 1975 where ivory makes up less than 20% of the volume. This covers most familiar instruments such as pianos with ivory keys and violin bows. </p>
<p>The musicians unions lobbied hard for the exemption to be included, and this will come as a great relief for them. Most respondents to the consultation opposed such an exemption, but Defra believes that the continuing use and trade in pre-1975 instruments would not contribute to further poaching.</p>
<h2>2. Furniture with ivory decoration</h2>
<p>The second exemption category is perhaps the most controversial. It allows for trade in objects where ivory makes up less than 10% of the volume, and as long as it was carved pre-1947. Representatives of the arts and antiques sector naturally wanted much more lenient rules – up to 50% ivory – but Defra took a tougher line. Most furniture with decorative ivory will remain exempt from the ban but commonly traded artefacts such as <a href="https://www.christies.com/features/Netsuke-Collecting-Guide-5-Things-to-Know-7963-1.aspx">netsuke</a> will not. </p>
<h2>3. Portrait Miniatures</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213886/original/file-20180409-114105-983guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213886/original/file-20180409-114105-983guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213886/original/file-20180409-114105-983guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=774&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213886/original/file-20180409-114105-983guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=774&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213886/original/file-20180409-114105-983guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=774&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213886/original/file-20180409-114105-983guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213886/original/file-20180409-114105-983guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213886/original/file-20180409-114105-983guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ‘canvas’ is an 8cm-high sliver of ivory.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%27Portrait_of_a_Boy%27,_watercolor_on_ivory_portrait_miniature_by_James_Nixon,_c._1810-1820,_Museum_of_Fine_Arts,_Houston.jpg">'Portrait of a Boy', James Nixon, c.1810</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another exemption considers portrait miniatures at least 100-years-old from the start of the new rules. These small portraits were often painted on whisper thin slivers of ivory and encased in glass fronted lockets. The ivory used is so thin that it cannot be re-curved.</p>
<h2>4. Museum pieces</h2>
<p>Defra has also introduced an exemption for museums, which will keep their right to sell to, or buy from, accredited museums in the UK or elsewhere. Many of those in favour said it was important to protect cultural heritage and to conserve pieces for educational and research purposes.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"877807346470100994"}"></div></p>
<h2>5. The Flagellation of Christ by Jacobus Agnesius</h2>
<p>This 17th-century ivory carving was sold by Christies auctioneers in 2016 <a href="https://www.christies.com/lotfinder/Lot/an-ivory-group-of-the-flagellation-of-6046628-details.aspx">for £965,000</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"798449789750935552"}"></div></p>
<p>It is mentioned here as an example of one of the relatively small number of items that would fall under the final exemption, for items of “artistic, historic or cultural value”. Such items must be an example of the rarest of their type. Defra will seek out specialist knowledge from advisory institutions such as museums before granting an exemption under this category.</p>
<p>As one of the <a href="https://www.christies.com/PDF/catalog/2016/CKS12238_SaleCat.pdf">largest and most remarkable</a> statues of its kind in the world, and one of just a handful of confirmed works <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703779704576073883205397102">by its sculptor</a>, “The Flagellation of Christ” would warrant an exemption. But that nice carving you picked up on holiday? Probably not.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213595/original/file-20180406-125164-pogxdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213595/original/file-20180406-125164-pogxdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213595/original/file-20180406-125164-pogxdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213595/original/file-20180406-125164-pogxdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213595/original/file-20180406-125164-pogxdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213595/original/file-20180406-125164-pogxdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213595/original/file-20180406-125164-pogxdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213595/original/file-20180406-125164-pogxdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">African elephants at the waterhole.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Donovan van Staden/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To enforce the ban, the government wants to introduce new compliance rules which will be administered by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/animal-and-plant-health-agency">Animal and Plant Health Agency</a>. Owners of ivory items who wish to sell them will have to consider which exemption they come under and then register the items on an online database which will be accessible by the government, the regulatory body and the police. The database generates a unique number. As time goes on, the database will get bigger and unregistered items will become impossible to sell. </p>
<p>Putting the onus on the seller should make the policing of the new rules much easier. Breaches of the new rules will involve both civil punishments such as stop notices or fines, and criminal charges with the offender sentenced to up to five years in jail.</p>
<p>Yes, this represents more “red tape” if you are thinking of selling your old piano or antique furniture. But the elephants will thank us.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94593/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caroline Cox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite various exceptions, the UK’s proposed ivory ban will be among the toughest in the world.Caroline Cox, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/929872018-03-11T19:04:33Z2018-03-11T19:04:33ZIvory up in flames, but who really noticed? How messages on elephant poaching might be missed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209258/original/file-20180307-146691-bwqfos.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The world's biggest burn of illegal ivory.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Stiles</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The tusks of more than ten thousand elephants <a href="https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/160430-kenya-record-breaking-ivory-burn/">went up in flames in Kenya</a> on April 30, 2016 – the world’s largest ever ivory burn. It was meant as a powerful display against poaching and the illegal ivory trade. </p>
<p>But did those flames reach their intended target?</p>
<p>Currently, governments, donors and NGOs aren’t monitoring the impact of these ivory burns. So we tracked the media coverage of the Kenyan burn, with the results <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13097">published this month in Conservation Biology</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/publish-and-dont-perish-how-to-keep-rare-species-data-away-from-poachers-80239">Publish and don’t perish – how to keep rare species' data away from poachers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Who got the message?</h2>
<p>We had a simple question in mind with this research: did news of this burn make its way to ivory consumers and elephant poachers, and if so was the message one that denounced poaching?</p>
<p>The answer is a bit nuanced. Certainly the news of the ivory burn was strong (loud and clear) locally in Kenya and Tanzania and heavily amplified by news outlets across the western world (81% of online <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/01/world/africa/kenya-burns-poached-elephant-ivory-uhuru-kenyatta.html">articles on the burn</a> were produced in the United States).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Filming the destruction of the ivory.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Stiles</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unfortunately, we found low coverage of the burn in China, Vietnam and other countries where demand for illegal ivory is highest. </p>
<p>Of the 1,944 online articles that covered the burn in the countries sampled, only 61 were produced in mainland China. Additionally, more than half of the coverage in China was in English-language publications, which may not reach or resonate with all key ivory consumers.</p>
<p>The good news is, media stories around the ivory burn delivered an anti-poaching message. They stressed the importance of burns, ivory trade bans and law enforcement to catch poachers, smugglers and dealers, as key steps to saving elephants.</p>
<h2>To burn or not to burn?</h2>
<p>The authors on our research paper are a group of scientists and conservationists with diverse backgrounds, across Africa, North America, Australia, Europe and Asia. Our values are as diverse as our experiences.</p>
<p>Most of us feel a bit of sadness because watching elephant tusks engulfed in flames is a reminder of elephant slaughter. </p>
<p>For some of us though, the sadness is tempered by feelings of hope and justice – this is ivory that will never go into the hands of illegal dealers and ivory consumers and, as such, acts as a major deterrent. </p>
<p>But for others, the response was upsetting – animals had been murdered, and to add insult to injury, their remains wasted.</p>
<p>In the Kenyan burn, the ivory was estimated to be worth more than US$100 million (A$128 million) on the black market.</p>
<p>These stockpiles of ivory are an unfortunate reality. Ivory is harvested by elephant poachers. Between 2007 and 2014 an <a href="https://peerj.com/articles/2354/">estimated 144,000 elephants were killed</a>. If we are lucky, these poachers are caught and their ivory confiscated. Piles of seized ivory accumulate in massive stockpiles across Africa.</p>
<p>So this poses a difficult situation. What should we do with all that ivory?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The haul of illegal ivory, before the burn. Could it be put to better use?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Stiles</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We’d all, obviously, rather see ivory where it belongs, on live elephants. In an ideal world ivory would only be collected, if at all, from elephants that died from natural causes and so trade in this product would not be a problem.</p>
<p>But the world isn’t ideal. Even though the price of ivory has declined, elephant tusks have been known to fetch up to <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/susan-lieberman-phd/as-the-price-of-ivory-fal_b_8885416.html">US$10,000</a> (A$12,800). With the financial incentive to poach so high, it sometimes seems like an insurmountable problem.</p>
<h2>Ivory for conservation</h2>
<p>Some of us believe that destroying ivory sends a strong message against poaching and illegal ivory trade – by saying that ivory is only valuable on a living elephant. </p>
<p>These members of our group think that we might as well burn these stockpiles, to demonstrate that trade should never be supported (as it cannot be adequately policed). They are heartened by the adoption of ivory trade bans by <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-42532017">China</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/06/02/480494835/new-u-s-ban-on-ivory-sales-to-protect-elephants">United States</a>. </p>
<p>But others in the group think destroying a quantity of ivory – worth far more on the black market than Kenya’s entire annual wildlife management budget – squanders an opportunity to sell the ivory. </p>
<p>The money could then be used to conserve elephants and other endangered wildlife (although pro-trade proponents acknowledge that there are implementation issues regarding corruption and policing efficacy). </p>
<p>To these members of our group, burning the ivory would be like burning cash in front of a person with no food or shelter.</p>
<p>Deep down inside, we all have one common goal, to save elephants.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Illegal ivory could be used to aid elephant conservation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/rohit_saxena/5496346430/">Flickr/The Rohit</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rather than arguing based on our emotions, that’s why we carried out the latest research – a first step towards helping us decide whether ivory burns will reduce poaching.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-britain-make-an-ivory-ban-work-only-if-it-learns-from-americas-experience-85412">Can Britain make an ivory ban work? Only if it learns from America's experience</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>With the most <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/ivory-trinkets-crushed-en-masse-in-bourke-street-mall-20180303-p4z2oz.html">recent ivory destruction event</a>, in Melbourne, Australia, now is the time to think deeply about the efficacy of these ivory destruction events. </p>
<p>We need messages to be targeted towards the most important audiences, and we need to monitor consumer behaviour – not just the media coverage – in response to these events. </p>
<p>The scientific evidence for which action best saves elephants – burning or using regulated ivory sales to fund conservation – is still inconclusive. But as long as we move forward with ivory destruction, let’s make sure we monitor its impact.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew H. Holden has received fellowships from the National Science Foundation, USA, and the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher O'Bryan receives funding from the Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre in Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duan Biggs receives funding from Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Possingham receives funding from The Australian Research Council. He is the Chief Scientist of The Nature Conservancy, a global environmental not-for-profit.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Watson receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Alongside his position at the University of Queensland, he is the Director of Science and Research Initiative at the Wildlife Conservation Society</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Richard Braczkowski and James Allan do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The destruction of a massive haul of illegal ivory was supposed to send a message to poachers and those who trade in the tusks. Did they notice, or can the ivory be used to help elephant conservation?Matthew H. Holden, Lecturer, Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics, The University of QueenslandAlexander Richard Braczkowski, PhD Candidate - Wildlife Cameraman, The University of QueenslandChristopher J. O'Bryan, PhD Candidate, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of QueenslandDuan Biggs, Senior Research Fellow Social-Ecological Systems & Resilience, Griffith UniversityHugh Possingham, Professor, The University of QueenslandJames Allan, PhD candidate, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of QueenslandJames Watson, Professor, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/781472017-05-25T14:19:19Z2017-05-25T14:19:19ZHow Tory U-turn on the antique ivory trade will threaten elephants in the wild<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170561/original/file-20170523-5799-ieysr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The tusks in these ornamental elephants are real ivory.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/wwarby/5110117654/in/photolist-8MyFWN-SwG16d-ib3jML-8MvBoF-8MvAUg-4BJbWu-8MyGhS-8MvAtv-d2YaK7-d2rzfC-acLgC5-d3xsK7-cfsx2b-RdwZiy-d1S6ZS-cVNJXY-35PVb5-acHNdX-atzxYf-5KT58n-acLCzU-acLB57-AbZu6-SBuNnA-4fmgvE-Bzj1nU-5Jx9k5-S8khPS-UkFpXB-ib3mBN-SPrjNz-S86NdQ-SKvQYR-T77S7d-Ga3R97-EJno2G-H7gGp8-ST52hB-H5xgGn-BjwqDx-T281ic-Ga8D4K-Su3wrj-BrUmtk-KZcq1G-sEeU88-7nVmFi-aiaFEt-acHv1t-aorzkM">William Warby</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Back in January I wrote <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-chinas-ivory-ban-is-a-mammoth-step-towards-saving-the-elephant-71186">an article for The Conversation</a> applauding China’s announcement to close its ivory trade and processing activities by the end of 2017. A shocked but delighted conservation lobby <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/wwf-uk-comments-todays-historic-announcement-china-will-close-down-its-domestic-ivory-trade">hailed the move</a> as a potential turning point in the protection of wild elephants. </p>
<p>But now the UK Conservative party has quietly dropped a manifesto commitment to <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservatives-ivory-trade-ban-2017-manifesto-scrap-pledge-illegal-poaching-a7748581.html">ban the ivory trade</a>. I am as concerned today as I was happy back in January. </p>
<p>China’s announcement followed a major global conference in September 2016. <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-cites-and-why-should-we-care-65510">CITES</a>, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora – imagine a sort-of UN for the illegal wildlife trade – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/02/worlds-nations-agree-elephant-ivory-markets-must-close">recommended</a> that its 183 member states “close their domestic markets for commercial trade in raw and worked ivory as a matter of urgency”.</p>
<p>In line with the Conservatives’ 2015 manifesto promise “to press for a total ban on ivory sales”, the government also responded positively by announcing plans for a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-ban-on-modern-day-ivory-sales">ban on sales of modern day ivory</a>. Britain’s rules would be among the world’s most stringent. </p>
<p>There are <a href="http://www.port.ac.uk/school-of-law/research/the-ivory-project/">more than 2,000,000 pieces of ivory</a> in Britain’s homes, according to an estimate by The British Antiques Dealers Association. They range from the keys of a piano to the handles of knives, small ornaments and boxes. Current legislation means that ivory that has been “worked” (that is, carved) is legal to sell under the so-called “antiques exemption” provided it was worked before 1947, the cut-off date set by the original CITES convention.</p>
<p>However, judging whether a piece is pre or post-1947 is no easy task. There are some scientific techniques: the date roughly corresponds with the end of World War II and the era of nuclear testing which released massive amounts of a radioactive carbon isotope (C14) into the atmosphere. All life now carries traces of C14, and it is possible to date any living thing since this point – <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21371831">including ivory</a>. Such forensic testing is prohibitively expensive and invasive though, so the antiques trade still relies on knowledge and experience to judge an item. </p>
<p>Proof of age is important as, even though ivory antiques don’t kill any “new” elephants, new ivory – from illegally poached tusks – can easily be mixed in with old. Expert dealers are wary of illegal ivory, but ivory is also sold more casually, at car boot sales or fairs by non-specialists. This explains the <a href="http://actionforelephantsuk.org/position-statement-on-uk-domestic-ivory-trade/">calls from conservation groups</a> for a blanket ban on the sale of all ivory, including antique. </p>
<p>After banning the post-1947 trade, the UK government also set out its intention to <a href="https://www.antiquestradegazette.com/news/2016/uk-ivory-ban-threat-government-will-consult-antiques-industry/">consult with interested groups</a> on strengthening proof of age regulation. Intention to introduce a “documentary proof” requirement was announced meaning it would no longer be sufficient for a dealer or auctioneer to simply state that the item is a pre-1947 worked piece and for the prosecution to prove otherwise. </p>
<p>What a difference a year makes. Looking at the <a href="https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto">2017 Conservative manifesto</a>, gone is the bold total ban statement and there is no mention of the earlier promises. In their place is a very general commitment “to leave the environment in better condition than we inherited it” and to cooperate with international bodies to protect rare species.</p>
<h2>Brexit dominates</h2>
<p>The antiques trade, conservation groups and law enforcers were all anticipating a promised consultation which has not materialised. Instead, Brexit has dominated the political landscape, and while government departments have understandably focused on Europe other matters, including the ivory trade, appear to have been put on the back burner. </p>
<p>With the <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/wwf-uk-comments-todays-historic-announcement-china-will-close-down-its-domestic-ivory-trade">WWF</a> reporting that some <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/wildlife/african-elephants">20,000 African elephants</a> are being killed annually for their ivory, the back burner is not a safe place.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170576/original/file-20170523-5782-19rxmcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170576/original/file-20170523-5782-19rxmcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170576/original/file-20170523-5782-19rxmcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170576/original/file-20170523-5782-19rxmcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170576/original/file-20170523-5782-19rxmcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170576/original/file-20170523-5782-19rxmcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170576/original/file-20170523-5782-19rxmcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170576/original/file-20170523-5782-19rxmcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Just as humans have a dominant hand, elephants are typically right or left-tusked.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ann Moore / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Labour manifesto by contrast pledges to “introduce and enforce a total ban on ivory trading”. However this deceptively simple statement has <a href="https://www.antiquestradegazette.com/news/2017/labour-manifesto-promises-a-total-ban-on-trade-in-ivory">not been well received</a> by some sellers of the older (pre-1947) ivory, who would be hit by the extended ban. </p>
<p>Their argument is that older ivory already exists, and that an ornament changing hands doesn’t involve any further elephant slaughter. For them, a ban would be an attack on their lawful businesses and an act of <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/luxury/art/art-sales-the-ivory-showdown/">cultural vandalism</a>.</p>
<h2>Tackling illegal trade at all levels</h2>
<p>The illegal ivory trade needs to be dealt with both at the macro and micro level. In global terms, we must act with the international community to honour the commitments made in the September 2016 CITES conference. This of course includes international action to help African countries tackle poaching. </p>
<p>However as a signatory to CITES, the UK must also be active and vigilant in the prosecution of its own sellers of illegal ivory. This should include strict rules governing the sale of pre-1947 worked ivory pieces including, at minimum, a requirement for sellers to provide documentary evidence of the age of the items. Research I’ve carried out as part of Portsmouth’s Ivory Project suggests we should go further and only allow ivory to be <a href="http://www.port.ac.uk/school-of-law/research/the-ivory-project/">sold via licensed, specialist dealers and auctioneers</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78147/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caroline Cox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ivory from illegally-poached elephants can easily be mistaken for antique.Caroline Cox, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/711862017-01-18T11:39:32Z2017-01-18T11:39:32ZWhy China’s ivory ban is a mammoth step towards saving the elephant<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152909/original/image-20170116-9055-1dkfh7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ivory owner.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ivory-547142518?src=rg-ezbTbSv2SDHoUXHcNig-1-0">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the end of last year, China <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-38470861">announced a complete ban</a> on its ivory trade and processing activities by the end of 2017. The news, a late Christmas gift to many conservationists, was greeted as a “<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/china-ivory-trade-ban-2017-game-changer-africa-elephant-wwf-a7503121.html">game changer</a>” by groups including the <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/wwf-uk-comments-todays-historic-announcement-china-will-close-down-its-domestic-ivory-trade">World Wildlife Fund</a>, which says around <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/wildlife/african-elephants">20,000 African elephants</a> are being killed every year for their ivory. As the world’s largest consumer of ivory products, Chinese demand has seen poaching increase and ivory prices rise. The country has had a seemingly insatiable appetite for so-called “white gold”. </p>
<p>At a meeting of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (<a href="https://www.cites.org">CITES</a>) last September, a resolution was tabled which recommended that its 183 member states “close their domestic markets for commercial trade in raw and worked ivory as a matter of urgency”. China’s support of the resolution surprised many and led to it being adopted by consensus. The country had taken a big step in re-evaluating its relationship with ivory and its effect on the world’s elephants.</p>
<p>The subsequent announcement on December 30 2016 saw China commit to closing up to 15 of its 34 ivory processing firms and 50 to 60 of its 130 licensed ivory retail shops by March 31 2017. The second stage will see China phase out the country’s remaining registered legal processors and traders by the end of the year. </p>
<p>China has a popular ivory carving industry with a history which stretches back to the <a href="http://www.metmuseum.org/toah/works-of-art/50.145.74/">Ming</a> and Qing Dynasties. To assist those who carry out this work, there will be schemes to assist ivory carvers with the transition into working with other mediums. “Master carvers” will be encouraged to work in museums and in the repair and maintenance of artistic and culturally significant ivory artefacts. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EEHOdHUxNWE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>The Chinese move effectively brings to an end the future of the country’s domestic ivory market. But there are millions of pieces of (currently) legally owned ivory artefacts all over China which will have to be dealt with through a strict new management system. Ivory products will only be displayed in museums and art galleries for non-commercial purposes or exhibition and the giving and inheriting of ivory will still be allowed. </p>
<h2>The elephant in the sale</h2>
<p>More worryingly, the Chinese ban on trade specifically excludes items described as “genuine antiques”. This exemption raises concerns that elephants will continue to be poached to supply an increased trade in “ghost ivory” (illegal ivory sold as antique legal ivory) as the legitimate market closes. </p>
<p>Another problem is that a large portion of China’s ivory trade will simply shift to Hong Kong, which is not subject to the Chinese ban. Hong Kong is the world’s biggest legal retail market for elephant ivory and a major transit hub for illegal imports. Hong Kong has itself pledged to phase out its domestic ivory market by 2021 and it is hoped that the Chinese announcement will encourage Hong Kong to speed up the timescale. But there is no guarantee this will happen.</p>
<p>Concerns over the sale of “ghost ivory” alongside legitimate legal ivory pieces are even greater in Hong Kong. “Hong Kong ivory” has even come to be a derogatory term to describe new ivory masquerading as old. </p>
<p>This point was recently highlighted by British auctioneer James Lewis, who <a href="https://www.antiquestradegazette.com/news/2016/auctioneers-bamfords-introduce-ban-on-solid-ivory/">said</a> of his experiences in Hong Kong:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>You see old ivory on the same shelf as new ivory. I realised then there’s a major market in the Far East that looks at ivory as a commodity as well as an art form, and that the old ivory market is fuelling modern ivory demand.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But these concerns should not distract us from the positive aspects of China’s plans. In terms of addressing the decline in wild elephant populations and Asia’s attitudes to ivory, the Chinese ban can only be a good thing. Provided Beijing is able to police and manage the changes effectively it could even be the “game changer” conservationists hope for. </p>
<p>Just as importantly, the fact that China has gone so far and with such a strict time scale after years of negotiation could be the catalyst for other states such as Hong Kong, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam to follow suit. Demand for “white gold” has taken the elephant to the <a href="http://www.npr.org/2013/03/06/173508369/elephant-poaching-pushes-species-to-brink-of-extinction">brink of extinction</a>. Chinese remorse could be the species’ salvation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71186/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caroline Cox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The world’s largest trader is closing down.Caroline Cox, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/710902017-01-11T09:51:50Z2017-01-11T09:51:50ZChina’s ban on domestic ivory trade is huge, but the battle isn’t won<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152222/original/image-20170110-29024-l0gu2p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">China plans to ban the ivory trade. The hope is that prices will be driven downwards and elephant numbers will improve.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ross Harvey</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>China has <a href="https://newsroom.wcs.org/News-Releases/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9578/China-Announcement-of-Domestic-Ivory-Ban-in-2017--English-Translation.aspx">published a notice</a> that the processing and sale of ivory and ivory products “will be stopped by December 31, 2017”. China’s credible commitment to this end follows <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/17/WorkingDocs/E-CoP17-57-02.pdf">a decision</a> taken at the latest Convention on International Trade in Endangered Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) conference to end all domestic trade in ivory.</p>
<p>China has made announcements of intent before, in May and September 2015. Concrete action was missing in terms of the duration of the ban and a timetable for implementation. Now both are effectively in place. </p>
<p>By March this year a portion of registered ivory sale and processing sites will stop operating. Sale activities on ivory and its products will cease. The remainder will stop by the end of the year. </p>
<p>The announcement doesn’t specify how long the ban will be in place, but the wording implies that the trade will not resume. </p>
<p>This is good news for elephant conservation in Africa. </p>
<p>Wildlife experts estimate that <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/30/world/asia/china-ivory-ban-elephants.html?_r=0">50 to 70%</a> of poached ivory ends up in China. A <a href="http://danstiles.org/publications/ivory/43.Analysis%20of%20Demand.pdf">recent report</a> estimated that 200 metric tonnes (MT) a year of illegal ivory entered China-Hong Kong between 2010 and 2014. Only 6-8 MT of that annually was estimated to have been sold illegally. This suggests that a massive volume of ivory is being illegally stockpiled for speculative purposes. So it’s crucial to understand the impact that the ban will have on speculator behaviour.</p>
<h2>Owning the value chain</h2>
<p>African elephants are being slaughtered for their tusks at an alarming rate, according to the <a href="http://www.greatelephantcensus.com/final-report/">Great Elephant Census</a>. Mortality rates of around 8% exceed birth rates, constituting a serious threat to elephant survival. To satisfy demand in East Asia, organised crime syndicates have moved to try and control the entire value chain by vertically integrating each facet of the trade.</p>
<p>On the supply side this has meant the use of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jun/04/lords-resistance-army-funded-elephant-poaching">sophisticated weaponry</a> and <a href="https://eia-international.org/wp-content/uploads/EIA-Vanishing-Point-lo-res1.pdf">the infiltration</a> of anti-poaching agencies. It has also meant that there is <a href="https://eia-international.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Inside-Story-lo-res.pdf">corruption</a> throughout the distribution route from state officials to the police, customs, port and tax authorities. </p>
<p>At the retail end of the supply chain, <a href="http://www.wwf.se/source.php/1578610/out%20of%20africa.pdf">anecdotal evidence</a> suggests that some syndicates have sought to open their own illicit outlets in addition to stockpiling ivory.</p>
<p>For as long as domestic trade remained legal in China, it was easy to launder illicit ivory into officially recognised legal outlets. This prompted the international community – at the last CITES conference – to <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/17/Com_II/E-CoP17-Com-II-06.pdf">vote overwhelmingly</a> in favour of putting an end to commercial domestic trade in ivory.</p>
<h2>But will it work?</h2>
<p>In a <a href="http://www.saiia.org.za/general-publications/1104-2016-09-19-snap-working-paper-for-saiia-rev/file">paper</a> published in September 2016 we examined how speculators might respond to a domestic trade ban in China. <a href="http://danstiles.org/publications/ivory/43.Analysis%20of%20Demand.pdf">Given the evidence</a> that a significant volume of ivory is being stockpiled, we sought to understand the incentive structures that might be driving speculator activity. </p>
<p>We distinguished between wholesale and private speculators. </p>
<p>Private speculators probably account for only a small proportion of total ivory consumption. They may be individuals purchasing ivory either as a collector’s item or as an “inflation-proof” investment vehicle. In this category, the market structure would likely be quite competitive.</p>
<p>Not so for wholesale speculators. These are likely to be large syndicates that are either oligopolistic or monopolistic in structure. They appear to have an incentive to drive elephants to the brink of extinction. Syndicates would not want potential competitors to access living elephant stock. If elephants were to become exceedingly scarce, the value of their ivory would skyrocket. Trade in the products of extinct species is difficult to regulate, and exceeds the CITES mandate. </p>
<p>Speculators would have had every incentive to stockpile ivory in anticipation of earning future monopoly rents prior to the announcement of a domestic trade ban in China. This explains the <a href="http://danstiles.org/publications/ivory/43.Analysis%20of%20Demand.pdf">discrepancy</a> between the volume of ivory entering China (as extrapolated from seizure date) and the volume being sold (even illegally).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A massive volume of ivory is being illegally stockpiled for speculative purposes in China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/animalrescueblog/11805693745/in/photolist-iZfz5p-iZfzov-iZfzEc-iZegvR-iZefSr-iZi8ey-iZeg9P-iZegrT-iZfyWt-iZgokY-iZgoBE-iZi8rC-hwc6Af-hwbQgB-hwbXGQ-rRX4zv-hwc8NG-huo4vn-rAaVND-rA4pM9-uvFsHp-uvsKqD">International Fund for Animal Welfare Animal Rescue/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The quicker the better</h2>
<p>Our paper argued that the Chinese domestic ban should be imposed as soon as possible, and for an indefinite duration. Chinese authorities have now, with minor (reasonable) exceptions, committed to doing so. That is good news – the quicker the better. The longer the ban takes to be implemented, the longer speculators have to sell ivory off. In that scenario the ivory price is only likely to decline slowly, if at all. The sooner the ban is implemented, the more ivory speculators will have to offload in a short space of time, driving prices down. Lower prices will disincentivise poaching. </p>
<p>Opponents of the ban typically argue that prices will rise in anticipation of future scarcity. But this depends both on who is buying and how long speculators believe the ban will be in place. </p>
<p>Ivory prices <a href="http://savetheelephants.org/about-ste/press-media/?detail=sharp-fall-in-the-prices-of-elephant-tusks-in-china">declined</a> by half in the 18-month period from June 2014 to December 2015. This suggests that anticipation of future scarcity was not driving prices up as expected. If speculators believed that the domestic trade would be banned, they may have gotten rid of their ivory more quickly. Demand may also have been declining as a result of lower income levels and the efficacy of demand reduction campaigns. </p>
<p>But if wholesale speculators believe that the ban will only be temporary they would have an incentive to maintain their stockpiles until legal sales resumed. In the meanwhile, they would continue to poach to maintain or build a monopoly on the available ivory stock.</p>
<p>So, it is good news that the official wording of the ban does not suggest the possibility of future trade. It may have been preferable to state this explicitly. But that may have been too politically prickly.</p>
<p>A domestic trade ban in China may spur what economists call a “fire sale” where stockholders offload large volumes of stock at the same time. This drives prices exponentially downwards. It remains to be seen whether this will happen. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/31/world/africa/africa-ivory-china.html?_r=0">Recent reports</a> suggest that ivory processing and sales are increasingly moving into Vietnam, simply moving the problem to a different geographic location with little effect on prices. </p>
<p>How prices respond to the news will provide some indication of whether the speculation in our paper was correct. Either way, the hope is that prices will be driven downwards, disincentivising poaching and protecting elephants.</p>
<h2>What’s still missing</h2>
<p>A domestic trade ban is only one spanner in a complex toolkit to achieve sustainable elephant populations. It is nonetheless a crucial one: a strong signal of change from a country that recently marketed the ivory trade as a heritage industry. </p>
<p>There are, however, other threats such as habitat fragmentation and encroachment. Add to this increasing human and elephant conflict, and a thriving bush-meat trade, and it’s clear that long-term elephant survival is at risk. </p>
<p>Another complexity is the availability of <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/08/wildlife-woolly-mammoth-ivory-trade-legal-china-african-elephant-poaching/">mammoth</a>, or fossil ivory, which can be traded legally.</p>
<p><a href="https://econ.ucalgary.ca/sites/econ.ucalgary.ca/files/naimafarahw15.pdf">Some argue</a> that its availability substitutes for elephant ivory and therefore slows the rate of elephant killing. Others worry that it simply provides another laundering mechanism because it’s plausible that elephant ivory will be passed off as mammoth ivory.</p>
<p>Ultimately, elephants need to be valued as being worth more alive than dead by two crucial constituents. Consumers need to make the cultural shift to seeing ivory as belonging to elephants alone. <a href="http://www.saiia.org.za/occasional-papers/ensuring-elephant-survival-through-improving-community-benefits">Community members</a> on the front line of conservation and human-elephant conflict need to receive significant benefits from keeping elephants alive and their habitats intact. Only then will the battle be won.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71090/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>During 2016, SAIIA received funding from Stop Ivory (UK). Ross works for SAIIA, an independent, not-for-profit think-tank. </span></em></p>China has decided to end all domestic trade in ivory, an act that could help elephant numbers all over Africa.Ross Harvey, Senior Researcher in Natural Resource Governance (Africa), South African Institute of International AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/664332016-10-10T17:39:11Z2016-10-10T17:39:11ZA populist tighter ivory trade ban is not enough to save Africa’s elephants<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140847/original/image-20161007-8965-qb6sce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 27-year old ban on international ivory trade has clearly failed to deliver a sustained solution to the poaching crisis.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A disproportionate amount of the agenda at The 17th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on the Trade of Endangered Species (CITES) was dominated by African elephants and the controversial issue of the ivory trade. African elephants have declined by more than 100,000 over the past <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/714180/Thousands-African-elephants-poached-ivory-numbers-decline-conservationist">decade</a>. This is driven to a large extent by the <a href="https://www.iucn.org/news/poaching-behind-worst-african-elephant-losses-25-years-%E2%80%93-iucn-report">surge in poaching</a> due to the rising price of <a href="https://www.iucn.org/news/poaching-behind-worst-african-elephant-losses-25-years-%E2%80%93-iucn-report">ivory</a>. </p>
<p>The debate on how to respond to this crisis is very polarised. On the one side countries like Namibia, supported by pro-use NGOs, argue that hundreds of thousands of elephants have been lost to poaching since the ban was put in place in 1989 and that it has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/01/debate-can-legal-ivory-trade-save-elephants?0p19G=c">served as an incentive to poachers</a> because it reduces supply and increases prices. </p>
<p>Their proposed solution is a highly regulated legal trade in ivory that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-ban-on-ivory-sales-has-been-an-abject-failure-a-rethink-is-needed-65665">will provide funds</a> for conservation and incentives to rural people to conserve elephants and their habitat.</p>
<p>The opposing argument is that only a complete trade ban - both domestic and international - can work because the continued existence of domestic ivory markets, and one-off sales of ivory stockpiles, enables poached ivory to be laundered. This in turn <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/01/debate-can-legal-ivory-trade-save-elephants?0p19G=c">fuels the poaching crisis</a>. Countries like Kenya, strongly supported by animal welfare organisations and some conservation NGOs, hold this view. </p>
<p>It is this second perspective that has the strongest support as reflected by a large majority of member countries of the World Conservation Union adopting a motion to support the closure of domestic <a href="https://portals.iucn.org/congress/motion/007">ivory markets</a>. This momentum continued at the CITES CoP17 with an agreed resolution encouraging the closure and tighter enforcement of domestic ivory markets.</p>
<p>But the 27-year old ban on international ivory trade has clearly failed to deliver a sustained solution to the poaching crisis. Yes, it has helped reduce poaching in some areas, but it is unclear that the stronger ban that includes the closing down of domestic markets will help conserve elephants. </p>
<h2>Resounding no to ivory trade</h2>
<p>The proposals by Namibia and Zimbabwe to sell ivory were defeated. Opponents of these proposals argued that any sale was likely to further stimulate demand and would enable laundering of illegal ivory. </p>
<p>The strong opposition is despite the fact that studies commissioned by CITES - that the parties to CITES agreed to and participated in - found no evidence that previous stockpile sales resulted in an increased poaching. The last one took place in 2009. Instead, these studies, and peer-reviewed research found that variables such as poverty levels, law enforcement capacity, governance and corruption, and commodity and investment cycles were more important <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/17/WorkingDocs/E-CoP17-57-05.pdf">in explaining poaching</a> <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914002717">levels</a>. </p>
<h2>An era of populism</h2>
<p>But we live in an era of populism where simple silver bullet solutions to complex problems gain support. Examples include BREXIT and building walls to keep out unwanted <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/donald-trump-wall-mexico/483156/">immigrants</a>. A global international and domestic ban on ivory is a similarly appealing simple solution to a complex challenge that manifests differently in different countries. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many African
countries bid to trade their natural ivory stockpiles. They believe this will fund conservation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In both South Africa and Namibia, for example, sustainable use of wildlife is enshrined in the constitution. And enforcing a domestic ban faces serious legal difficulties. In addition, China, one of the largest consumer countries, has already agreed to enforce <a href="http://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?253490/China-and-US-pledge-to-end-domestic-ivory-trade">a domestic ivory ban</a>. </p>
<p>It is therefore unclear what additional gains there are from a continued push for a domestic ban in all countries. Critics feel that the underlying reasoning and motivations are simplistic and questionable. Yet the path of stricter bans is what the world has chosen on ivory at this point - and pro-use southern African countries and NGOs need to come to terms with this. </p>
<h2>Taking a new view</h2>
<p>The push for a global ban of international and domestic markets should be seen as a policy experiment. It may work to reduce poaching which will be a tremendous outcome for Africa’s elephants. But the conservation community needs to make sure that this stronger ban is not just rhetoric. The impact of actions like the continued ban on international trade and the closure of the Chinese and other domestic ivory markets need to be monitored, and measured. To this effect, the following measures are urgently needed.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>An agreed, independent, rigorous, framework and mechanism in which the price of ivory is monitored on the black market. If the strategy of more encompassing bans is successful in reducing demand, the price of ivory will drop, and continue to drop.</p></li>
<li><p>Attitudes towards purchasing ivory in demand countries. The motivations of buyers of ivory in countries like China <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320714003371">are diverse</a>. Rigorous surveys that draw from disciplines like psychology, economics, and criminology are needed to assess whether the attitudes, intentions and behaviour of potential buyers and ivory investors are changing.</p></li>
<li><p>In African range states, where ivory is sourced, robust monitoring, research, and analyses are needed to understand whether changes in the demand market are ultimately leading to decreased poaching levels, and lower poaching effort.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>By setting in place mechanisms to track these variables, the conservation community can track the success of this strategy. If the current push for a stricter ban fails, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-ban-on-ivory-sales-has-been-an-abject-failure-a-rethink-is-needed-65665">as some scholars predict</a> a system is needed to recognise this sooner rather than later, so that alternative strategies can be pursued. At the same time, if the closure of domestic markets succeeds in reducing the price of ivory and poaching – the pro-use nations and NGOs need to accept this. </p>
<p>Critically, even if a tighter ban resolves the poaching crisis - this is only one challenge facing elephants. Elephants require habitat to survive. The ivory trade is one important source of revenue in countries like Namibia to support elephant and habitat conservation. If this option disappears, and with increasing pressure on trophy hunting and the revenue it generates, alternative finance mechanisms urgently need to be sought.</p>
<p>Non-consumptive tourism is often touted, but tourism is a volatile market and can probably only sustainably support a fraction of Africa’s elephant populations. Novel finance mechanisms must be developed to ensure that community attitudes towards elephants and conservation do not worsen and that habitats for elephants are not transformed to agriculture and other non-conservation land-uses. </p>
<p>Ultimately, holistic, nuanced conservation strategies that are based on evidence and that are sustainable are required if African elephants are to be conserved for future generations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66433/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duan Biggs receives funding from Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Ivory was a major talking point at the CITES CoP17 conference.Many feel the ban on trade doesn’t work while others believe the ban is the only way to save the iconic species.Duan Biggs, Senior Research Fellow Social-Ecological Systems & Resilience, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/657432016-09-28T06:42:39Z2016-09-28T06:42:39ZStop the slaughter of African elephants by banning the ivory trade for good<p>The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) conference in South Africa provides a unique opportunity to make a ban on the ivory trade legally binding. The convention has already <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37479072">rejected a call</a> to legalise the sale of ivory; the next step is a worldwide ban.</p>
<p>The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) <a href="http://www.iucnworldconservationcongress.org/">passed a motion</a> on September 10 to <a href="https://portals.iucn.org/congress/motion/007">ban all trade in ivory</a> by halting the legal domestic trade that exists in some countries. But its ban is not legally enforceable. </p>
<p>Unlike the IUCN, CITES commands legal powers as most countries have signed and ratified its agreements, so they’re legally obliged to follow its policies. The success of a similar motion during its conference could mean the difference between the continuing existence of African elephants and their current slaughter. </p>
<h2>A dwindling population</h2>
<p>African elephants were first listed as a species of concern by CITES in 1977, with trade permitted only under the proviso of stringent regulation and monitoring. But by 1989, after a decade supposedly “<a href="http://www.hsi.org/assets/pdfs/Elephant_Related_Trade_Timeline.pdf">well-regulated</a>” international markets, the African elephant population had dropped by 60%. </p>
<p>Indeed, the population of African elephants has declined <a href="http://africageographic.com/blog/elephants-decline-97-less-century/">by up to 97%</a> in the past century. Every year, <a href="http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/21/opinion-why-destruction-of-ivory-stockpiles-might-not-be-a-good-idea/">around 30,000 elephants</a> are slaughtered for their tusks, and this may drive African elephants to extinct within the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/24/african-elephants-could-be-extinct-in-wild-within-decades-say-experts">next decade</a>. </p>
<p>Even this trend masks a more serious decline. Despite strong scientific evidence that African elephants are <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/12/101222-african-elephants-two-species-new-science/">two unique species</a> that diverged from each other millions of years ago, vested interests aiming to maintain the ivory trade only acknowledge one species. This strengthens their argument that populations are high enough to withstand slaughter for ivory harvesting. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/3229115.html">Forest elephants</a> (<em>Loxodonta cyclotis</em>) are particularly vulnerable to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/08/31/forest-elephants-are-vanishing-and-they-might-never-recover-from-poaching/">extinction</a>, having lost <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/mar/05/two-thirds-forest-elephants-killed">two-thirds</a> of their population in just the past decade. Savannah elephants (<em>Loxodonta africana</em>) have declined by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/31/poaching-drives-huge-30-decline-in-africas-savannah-elephants">a third</a>.</p>
<p>Illegal poaching is the main driver of population decline for both species.</p>
<h2>Well-regulated markets?</h2>
<p>Regulating the ivory trade is hard because of the difficulty in differentiating ivory obtained before the 1989 ban and illegal, post-1989 ivory. It’s currently impossible to assess the <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/104/10/4228.full">age of ivory</a>, so many countries have created certification systems. </p>
<p>A lack of rigorous checking, along with the creation of false certification, allows dealers to sell new ivory using certificates created for ivory taken before the ban. And even the best technologies fail to provide a mechanism to trace or <a href="https://theconversation.com/save-the-elephant-what-we-can-learn-from-failures-of-the-war-on-drugs-64839">register individual tusks</a>.</p>
<p>The picture is further complicated by the <a href="http://eia-global.org/images/uploads/EIA_Japans_Illegal_Ivory_Trade_12102015.pdf">CITES-approved sale</a> of stockpiles of 49 tonnes of seized ivory in 1997 to Japan. The sale was justified as providing funding for conservation but it legitimised trade and stoked demand to such a degree that it could not be met through legal sources. It’s thought to have driven further poaching, and increased smuggling by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/13/legal-ivory-sale-drove-dramatic-increase-in-elephant-poaching-study-shows">as much as 71%</a>.</p>
<p>Another sale of stockpiled ivory to <a href="https://cites.org/eng/news/pr/2008/081107_ivory.shtml">Japan and China in 2008</a> created a system where the mechanisms implemented to regulate released ivory allowed certificates to be falsely reused to launder illegal stock and create a limitless supply of ivory for sale. </p>
<p>With each sale, there have been guarantees of effective regulation, but each release has instead driven an <a href="https://www.iucn.org/news/poaching-behind-worst-african-elephant-losses-25-years-%E2%80%93-iucn-report">increase in poaching</a> and illegal trade. And despite repeated attempts to <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320714001220">effectively regulate</a> the ivory trade, each sale has stoked demand and driven laundering. </p>
<h2>Getting around regulations</h2>
<p>In the early 2000s, pressure from the governments of Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa – the same countries that sought the reintroduction of the ivory trade at the current conference – saw African elephants downlisted by CITES in these countries to allow limited trade, provided <a href="https://cites.org/eng/prog/ETIS/index.php">the ivory was registered</a> and closely monitored, and that elephant populations within those countries remained stable. </p>
<p>But these countries provide a <a href="https://eia-international.org/tangled-routes-global-elephant-ivory-trafficking">conduit for trade</a> globally, and drive poaching across the native African elephant range states. Forensic testing proves that ivory sold in these countries <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/104/10/4228.full">frequently originates elsewhere</a>, where it must have been poached illegally.</p>
<p>In China, the encouragement of the ivory trade as “cultural heritage” in 2002 and releases of “controlled volumes” of ivory led to a more than <a href="http://www.ifaw.org/sites/default/files/Making%20a%20Killing.pdf">170% increase</a> in its value, and 59.6% of “legality-certificates” were used to launder <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320714003371">illegal stock</a>. </p>
<p>This boom in ivory prices <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320714003371">lasted from 2009</a> until the <a href="http://africageographic.com/blog/us-and-china-ban-ivory-sales-in-historic-move/">ban announced by Chinese President Jinping Xi</a> in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/08/ivory-price-drop-in-china-signals-fall-in-demand-report-says">September 2015</a>. Since then, the value of ivory in China has halved.</p>
<p>Japan currently has the <a href="http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2016/08/26/conservationists-call-on-japan-to-ban-all-trade-in-ivory/">largest “legal” ivory market</a> globally, including 7,570 registered dealers, 537 wholesalers, and 293 manufacturers. But irrefutable evidence shows <a href="http://eia-global.org/images/uploads/EIA_Japans_Illegal_Ivory_Trade_12102015.pdf">increasing levels of laundering</a> within the trade in Japan, thanks to an ineffective regulation system that allows anyone to <a href="http://eia-global.org/news-media/japanese-wildlife-official-promoted-illegal-ivory-trade">decide on the legality of their ivory</a>. </p>
<p>Sales in Japan are thought to have <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/12/151210-Japan-ivory-trade-african-elephants/">almost quadrupled</a> from the equivalent of US$2 million in 2010, to US$7 million in 2014. It’s not feasible for this volume of ivory to have been legally registered. </p>
<p>Online markets for ivory have been targeted <a href="http://www.ifaw.org/sites/default/files/Making%20a%20Killing.pdf">within China</a>, and <a href="http://static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/157301/26245505/1432122394320/China-monitoring-report.pdf">internationally</a> by retailers including eBay, Taobao and Alibaba, but Japan has made <a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/08/15/reference/japan-slow-ban-ivory-trade-online-shops-even-slower/#.V9oYqvl96Uk">no effort</a> to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/10/japans-blind-eye-fuelling-illegal-ivory-trade-as-demand-rises-study-finds">do the same</a>, despite <a href="http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2016/08/26/conservationists-call-on-japan-to-ban-all-trade-in-ivory/">repeated calls</a> from non-governmental organisations, scientists and other governments. </p>
<p><a href="http://news.berkeley.edu/2016/06/13/study-finds-global-legalization-trial-escalates-elephant-poaching/">Legalising</a> any form of trade has been shown to drive illegal trade. It’s impossible to produce enough ivory legally <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982216310053">to meet demand</a>. </p>
<h2>Stopping the slaughter</h2>
<p>The United States, France, and China have all recognised the impossibility of regulating the trade, and banned sales of domestic ivory. There is <a href="https://eia-international.org/on-world-elephant-day-today-eia-is-calling-on-world-governments-to-vote-yes-and-support-the-closure-of-legal-domestic-ivory-markets">support for a global ban across a range states</a>. And by NGOs aiming to implement the “<a href="http://www.bloodyivory.org/stop-the-ivory-trade">African Elephant Action Plan</a>”, which provides a strategy to sustainably manage and conserve African elephant populations.</p>
<p>Support for a global ban has come from the public <a href="http://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/crush-and-burn-destroying-illegal-ivory">burning of ivory stockpiles</a> in more than <a href="http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/29/wcs-praises-kenya-for-massive-elephant-ivory-and-rhino-horn-burn-scheduled-for-saturday-april-30/">21 countries</a> to date. These burnings, such as the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/29/kenya-to-burn-biggest-ever-stockpile-of-ivory">105-ton ivory and rhino horn stockpile burning in Kenya</a> in April, show that elephants are worth more than just their ivory, and that any ivory trade represents a threat to their survival.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/17/InfDocs/E-CoP17-Inf-61.pdf">IUCN has set a precedent</a> through its call to ban the domestic ivory trade, but the critical next step is the decision to be made at the CITES conference in Johannesburg. If the conference passes the motion to ban the sale of ivory for good, it might just manage to stop the massacre of African elephants that the trade inevitably allows.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65743/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alice Catherine Hughes is affiliated with Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and China Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development Foundation
</span></em></p>Historical evidence shows African elephants are endangered by the ivory trade, despite any attempt at regulating the market. A total ban is the only hope for the world’s largest living land animal.Alice Catherine Hughes, Associate Professor in Landscape Ecology & Conservation, Chinese Academy of SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/656652016-09-22T17:11:36Z2016-09-22T17:11:36ZThe ban on ivory sales has been an abject failure. A rethink is needed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138765/original/image-20160922-22544-1g01agz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The fate of elephants ultimately lies in the hands of humans and a continued ban will not solve the poaching problem.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The issue of trade in African elephant ivory will dominate the 2016 <a href="https://cites.org/eng/cop/index.php">CITES Conference of the Parties</a> meeting. Debate will revolve around maintaining or lifting the ban on trade, but with little chance of addressing the overarching human element. For example, what impact has the trade ban had on local communities? And what is the relationship between their livelihoods and elephant protection and poaching?</p>
<p>There has been vocal support for maintaining a ban on the trade in ivory. But <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02589346.2016.1201378">the central arguments</a> for a continuation of the ban fail to grasp the mismatch between a CITES trade ban and Africa’s de facto realities. Instead, overly simplistic views are aired that are blind to grass root complexities and nuances. </p>
<p>This narrow lens leads to the prescription of a “one size fits all” solution under which both communities, and elephants, ultimately suffer. Elephants are treated as a global commons. In fact their fate ultimately lies in the hands of humans which is why a continued ban, with increased enforcement accompanied by demand reduction, will not solve the poaching problem. </p>
<p>Indeed, regaining control of elephant ivory as a resource is the core problem around which the trade debate centres. It also concerns itself with allocation of power and control of resources among governments, communities and institutions.</p>
<p>Opponents of a legal trade in elephant ivory give the impression that there is a deep crisis: elephants are headed for extinction. Yet the status of elephants varies greatly across and within Africa. The greatest losses have occurred in central and west Africa, the continent’s two most politically <a href="http://www.elephantdatabase.org/preview_report/2013_africa_final/2013/Africa">unstable regions</a>.</p>
<p>Contrast this with southern Africa, which has experienced a steady rise in elephant populations and is now home to <a href="http://www.elephantdatabase.org/preview_report/2013_africa_final/2013/Africa">two-thirds of Africa’s elephants</a>.
There is a problem, but it’s not continent-wide problem. The global population of the African elephant is not in immediate danger of extinction.</p>
<h2>A legal ivory trade</h2>
<p>A major flaw in the argument against those wanting to lift the ban is that legalising the sale of ivory may fail to reduce its price. But the pro-trade southern Africa countries are not seeking to drive prices downward. Why would they want to reduce the income from a product over which they have a competitive advantage?</p>
<p>Southern African countries’ aim is to realise the maximum income that the market will pay in a trading system based on <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/17/prop/060216/E-CoP17-Prop-15.pdf">regular sales</a>. They want to gain control of the supply of ivory to a market that has been seized by illegal traders. Money from the legal sale of ivory would provide income to rural peoples who live with elephants – establishing the incentives for <a href="http://e360.yale.edu/feature/point_the_case_for_a_legal_ivory_trade_it_could_help_stop_the_slaughter/2814/">their conservation</a>. </p>
<p>The ultimate goal of southern African countries is the transition from the present land-use system to a higher-valued one where rural people derive a better living from alternative options. This requires an enabling framework that does not include ivory trade bans or donor-dependent conservation. One example is Namibia’s Conservancy Programme, generally regarded as the <a href="ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/aj114e/aj114e10.pdf">most successful</a> in southern Africa.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Money from the legal sale of ivory would provide income to rural peoples who live with elephants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Southern Africa needs higher-valued land uses to survive an impending <a href="http://www.unocha.org/el-nino-southern-africa">environmental crisis</a>. The lives of millions of people are at risk through climate change. By demanding the inception of a legal ivory trade at CITES, southern African nations are seeking no more than that ivory sales assist in alleviating this crisis. Its sheer magnitude makes CITES’ preoccupation with listing species on Appendices irrelevant. It is a case of Nero fiddling while Rome burns.</p>
<p>Responsible global citizens should be doing everything in their power to facilitate a legal ivory trade that will mitigate human misery, realise the true potential of elephants and ultimately result in their long-term conservation. The likely annual proceeds from ivory for the anti-ban nations are of the order of US$1.5 billion. </p>
<p>This is calculated on the basis of around 300,000 elephants producing 500kg of ivory per 1,000 elephants at a value <a href="https://www.cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/com/sc/62/E62-46-04-A.pdf">of US$1,000/kg</a>. Existing rural community institutions are in place to ensure that funds are returned to <a href="http://ssrn.com/abstract=2840580">local people</a>. </p>
<h2>Demand is in flux, prices sensitive</h2>
<p>Another fallacious argument is that the market for ivory in Asia – particularly China – is insatiable due to growing affluence. This was purportedly ignited by a large “one-off” ivory sale <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02589346.2016.1201378">conducted by CITES in 2008</a>. This demand, the argument goes, has the potential to wipe out African elephant populations by 2020.</p>
<p>This is just drama. Demand is in flux and is sensitive to prices. And the role of affluence must be questioned since incomes in Asian consumer countries have been increasing since well <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.%20com/china/gdp-per-capita-ppp">before 2000</a>. It’s not possible to reconcile the assertion that affluence is synonymous with insatiable demand.</p>
<p>For many, the spectre of laundering in sufficient quantity to pose a significant threat is reason enough not to pursue legal trade and, indeed, to shut down all trade – even in extinct, look-alike species. In excess of 2400 metric tons of raw ivory left Africa between 2002 – 2014 and, of this, China’s 5-6 tonnes/year is a minor amount. Illegal traders do not need a legal market to launder ivory: their established trade conduits continue to work, as always.</p>
<h2>Abject failure</h2>
<p>Everyone agrees that the illegal ivory trade continues despite the international trade ban. It has been an abject failure. CITES has had 27 years to evaluate the experiment and, far from being part of the solution to illegal elephant killing in Africa, the ban must be seen as part of the problem.</p>
<p>Some posit that a legal trade in ivory cannot work with the <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25103555">corruption in Africa</a>. But they fail to consider that the ban has created fertile conditions for corruption. Indeed, officials and governments across the continent who declared the trade of ivory illegal have themselves been engaged in it. It made smuggling easy, according to popular <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/literature/laureates/2001/naipaul-bio.html">writer V. S. Naipaul</a>.</p>
<p>As he has done before, Naipaul touches a nerve. Africa today has no need for yet another spurious declaration. Rather, it needs support for the creation of a robust management and marketing system for one of its most valuable products.</p>
<p><em>Kirsten Conrad and Rowan Martin featured as co-authors on this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65665/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marshall Murphree does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ivory trade is a very contentious issue and will be debated at CITES. It will revolve around maintaining or lifting the ban on trade. But the human element is likely to be ignored.Marshall Murphree, Professor Emeritus and Director of the Centre of Applied Social Sciences, University of ZimbabweLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.