tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/jimmy-carter-6536/articlesJimmy Carter – The Conversation2024-03-04T13:35:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246062024-03-04T13:35:59Z2024-03-04T13:35:59ZNikki Haley, hanging on through Super Tuesday, says Trump is weak because he’s not getting as many votes as he should − she’s wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579021/original/file-20240229-28-zcbvn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C33%2C5589%2C3709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of GOP candidate Nikki Haley react as former President Donald Trump gives an acceptance speech during a primary election night party on Feb. 24, 2024, in Charleston, S.C. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-n-news-photo/2028796747?adppopup=true">Sean Rayford/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nikki Haley has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/us/politics/haley-not-dropping-out.html">refused to drop out</a> of the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination despite significant losses to Donald Trump in Iowa, New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina. Haley has tried to cast the race in an especially favorable light: As essentially an incumbent, Trump should be near-unanimously supported, but he hasn’t been – so she should keep on fighting. </p>
<p>Haley has made several versions of this argument: </p>
<p>• After finishing third behind Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the Iowa caucuses, Haley saw enough hope to declare the contest a “<a href="https://thehill.com/elections/4411329-haley-iowa-two-person-race-trump-2024/">two-person race</a>” – to incredulous ears. </p>
<p>• After coming in 11 points behind Trump in New Hampshire, an <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/23/nikki-haley-trump-new-hampshire-chance">unusually hospitable</a> state to her in ideology and temperament, a Haley spokesperson characterized Trump’s win as “<a href="https://www.wcvb.com/article/angry-rant-filled-with-grievances-nikki-haleys-campaign-says-of-donald-trumps-new-hampshire-primary-speech/46516280">not exactly a ringing endorsement</a> for a former president.” </p>
<p>• After getting just under 40% of the vote in her home state to Trump’s 60%, Haley again framed the result as more disappointing for Trump than for herself, stressing that “Trump as, technically, the Republican incumbent <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/nikki-haley-argues-trump-40-primary-voters-clue/story?id=107561624">did not win 40%</a> of the vote.”</p>
<p>I’m a political scientist, and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hADRzMwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I have studied</a> Trump’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12414">2016 campaign</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12630">his administration</a> as well as the <a href="https://www.ketv.com/article/uno-political-scientist-discusses-impact-of-desantis-dropping-out-on-presidential-race/46480904">Haley challenge</a>. I don’t buy Haley’s rationale for holding on.</p>
<p>As the two candidates face Super Tuesday, the biggest day of primary voting across the nation, Trump is not the weak candidate Haley would like him to be.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in suits on a stage standing behind individual lecterns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford in a televised presidential debate during the 1976 election. Carter beat Ford and became 39th president.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/james-jimmy-carter-and-gerald-ford-taking-part-in-the-first-news-photo/113494342?adppopup=true">Universal History Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>No comparison</h2>
<p>Haley’s claim that Trump’s early victories reveal some type of weakness hinges on comparing Trump with real incumbents running for reelection, who are indeed usually unopposed within their party. Think <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/democrats-replace-biden.html">the Biden reelection campaign</a> and <a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-republican-nomination/">Trump’s own in 2020</a>.</p>
<p>But this comparison is unreasonable: Trump’s not a real incumbent and should not be compared with one.</p>
<p>To see how well Trump’s doing, an appropriate comparison pits Trump against previous one-term presidents running for a nonconsecutive second term against the incumbents who defeated them – Gerald Ford in 1980 against President Jimmy Carter, Carter in 1984 against President Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush in 1996 against President Bill Clinton.</p>
<p>See what today’s situation has in common with these precedents? </p>
<p>Nothing. They never happened. </p>
<p>And that’s because these former presidents would have had little chance of getting nominated by a party that had moved on after their loss. So they chose not to run at all.</p>
<h2>Lose, then retreat</h2>
<p>Carter never seriously entertained a presidential run in 1984 against Reagan, to whom he had lost in <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1980_Election/">a 44-state landslide</a> in 1980. Even before 1980, observers <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=ziBaAAAAIBAJ&lpg=PA3&dq=jimmy%20carter%201984&pg=PA3#v=onepage&q=jimmy%20carter%201984&f=false">foretold Carter’s loss of support</a> among Democrats in 1984, saying “it is very doubtful the party will give him another shot” if he lost in 1980. After he did lose, Carter <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1982/05/11/us/carter-backs-mondale-for-presidency-in-1984.html">threw his support</a> behind his vice president, Walter Mondale. Against Mondale, Reagan would deliver an even bigger, <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1984_Election/">49-state landslide</a>.</p>
<p>George H.W. Bush in 1996 is a similar story. After losing to Clinton in 1992, he <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/bush/campaigns-and-elections">left office embittered</a> and would not recover politically. It was evidently <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=AUcyAAAAIBAJ&lpg=PA10&dq=george%20hw%20bush%201996&pg=PA10#v=onepage&q=george%20hw%20bush%201996&f=false">someone else’s turn</a> to run for president, as the party moved on to Bob Dole in 1996 and to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/08/04/us/republicans-overview-bush-accepting-gop-nomination-pledges-use-these-good-times.html">Bush’s own son</a>, George W. Bush, just four years later.</p>
<p>Of these might-have, could-have bids for a return to the presidency, Ford’s came closest to reality, partly owing to his <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/gerald-fords-unique-role-in-american-history">unique circumstances</a>. </p>
<p>Ford became president because of Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974. That happened not long after Nixon <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/40-years-ago-gerald-ford-becomes-president-in-a-historic-first">picked Ford to replace</a> Vice President Spiro Agnew, who resigned in 1973. Ford had not had a chance to run on his own terms. In a sense, his 1976 defeat was less conclusive in ending his political life than those of Carter and Bush, making his revival more plausible.</p>
<p>Still, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1978/09/29/stumping-ford-unlikely-to-run-in-80/00b6f0c4-6e1b-415d-a615-2aa4093aa01a/">discouragement</a> from the former president’s own inner circle dampened his flirtations with a 1980 run.</p>
<h2>Wishful thinking?</h2>
<p>The big picture: Voters are generally <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/02/three-time-presidential-candidate-romney-stassen-115000/">unwilling to give</a> a candidate a second chance to run against someone who already defeated them once – a reason that <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/one-way-trump-fighting-history-election-losers-usually-lose-rematch-rcna117883">presidential rematches are so rare</a>.</p>
<p>Trump is proving to be an exception. He lost reelection in 2020, is running again in 2024 against the same president who beat him and is comfortably marching toward nomination a third time in a row. There’s no modern precedent for this, and it attests to his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/us/politics/trump-iowa-win-voters.html">enduring and extraordinary strength</a> within his party. </p>
<p>To be fair, one thing makes Trump’s rationale for a re-run more compelling than Ford in 1980, Carter in 1984 and Bush in 1996: Many Trump supporters <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-think-2020-election-illegitimate/index.html">don’t believe he lost</a> legitimately to Biden in 2020 in the first place, making them think he is somehow deserving of another chance. But that’s precisely part of Trump’s strength.</p>
<p>So, why does Haley talk of Trump’s weakness? </p>
<p>It’s a mix of a few things. She needs to project confidence and justify soldiering on to voters, donors and herself. She’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746">hoping for miracles</a> in upcoming contests. She could be <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2024/02/20/nikki-haleys-long-game-00142314">ambitious for 2028</a> and beyond. </p>
<p>It’s also just wishful thinking.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Huchen Liu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nikki Haley claims Donald Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent and should be doing much better against her than he is. That’s wishful thinking, says a political scientist.Huchen Liu, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Nebraska OmahaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213062024-01-17T01:30:34Z2024-01-17T01:30:34ZWhy two largely white and tiny states still matter so much to the US presidential election<p>Former President Donald Trump’s commanding, and expected, victory in this week’s Iowa caucuses has <a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-stroll-to-victory-in-iowa-was-a-foregone-conclusion-this-doesnt-make-it-any-less-shocking-221207">confirmed</a> his frontrunner status in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. </p>
<p>With his closest rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley lagging far behind, it seems the Republican primary contest is over before it has even begun. </p>
<p>Since the 1970s, Iowa has kicked off the US presidential election year with the first caucuses of the primary season. This changed for Democrats following the 2020 election, when the party ditched the first-in-the-nation caucuses for a mail-in vote. The results of this will be known on March 5 (often known as Super Tuesday).</p>
<p>Republicans, however, have stuck with the caucuses. With Republicans in 49 states still yet to cast a vote in the 2024 nominating contest, why is it that an overwhelmingly white state of 3 million continues to hold such sway over the fate of one of the world’s largest democracies?</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-stroll-to-victory-in-iowa-was-a-foregone-conclusion-this-doesnt-make-it-any-less-shocking-221207">Donald Trump's stroll to victory in Iowa was a foregone conclusion. This doesn't make it any less shocking</a>
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<h2>How Iowa was put on the map</h2>
<p>Iowa reached the top of the nominating calendar for a string of logistical reasons — some even say by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/why-iowa-gets-to-go-first-and-other-facts-about-tonights-caucus/2011/08/25/gIQAJtygYP_blog.html">accident</a> — when the Democratic Party reformed its candidate selection procedures after the <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">tumultuous</a> 1968 Chicago party convention. </p>
<p>At first, few noticed or cared about the Iowa caucuses’ early position. But this all changed in 1976. Little-known presidential hopeful <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/jimmy-carter-iowa-caucuses/426729/">Jimmy Carter</a> led a grassroots campaign in Iowa — and the next-in-line New Hampshire primary — to deliver unexpected early victories in the Democratic nominating contest. He seized upon these two early wins to catapult himself onto the national stage and ultimately win the White House.</p>
<p>Carter showed how these early testing grounds of voter support can propel candidates from obscurity to national fame. Once he put the Iowa caucuses on the map, the state sought to ensure they remained there. </p>
<p>Both the Democratic and Republican parties officially cemented Iowa’s first-in-nation status through state laws and party rules. Since then, the caucuses have become not just an opportunity for candidates to make their mark, but a boon for the state’s economy, raking in <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/des-moines/2022/04/19/iowa-caucuses-potential-loss-des-moines-revenue">millions</a> every cycle.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-presidential-primaries-are-arcane-complex-and-unrepresentative-so-why-do-americans-still-vote-this-way-129759">The US presidential primaries are arcane, complex and unrepresentative. So why do Americans still vote this way?</a>
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<h2>An unrepresentative state</h2>
<p>Iowa might be a big electoral prize, but the Mid-Western state itself is tiny and hardly representative of America as a whole. Iowa is <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population">more rural</a> than the national average and among the country’s least diverse states. </p>
<p>The population in Iowa is <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/IA/RHI125222">about 90% white</a>, compared to <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045222">76%</a> nationally. <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/IA/PST045222">Just 4%</a> of Iowans identify as Black or African American. </p>
<p>Many rightly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/bizarre-unfair-iowa-should-never-go-first-again-20200205-p53xxk.html">point out</a> that Iowa’s demographics more closely resemble the 19th-century United States than the America we know today. This is part of why the state’s outsized electoral role has come under increasing scrutiny in recent years. </p>
<p>In 2022, President Joe Biden and the Democratic National Committee announced they would promote <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/01/us/politics/biden-dnc-primary-south-carolina-2024.html">South Carolina</a> to the front of the 2024 Democratic primary contests ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire (also small and overwhelmingly white). </p>
<p>While Iowa was successfully moved back in the schedule, New Hampshire held onto its first-in-the-nation status, prompting Biden to <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-will-not-be-on-the-new-hampshire-primary-ballot-what-does-that-mean-for-voters">take his name off</a> this year’s primary ballot. The vote will be held on January 23.</p>
<h2>As Iowa and New Hampshire go, so goes the nation (sometimes)</h2>
<p>Iowa has, at best, a patchy record of predicting party nominees and presidents. </p>
<p>In the ten contested Democratic Iowa caucuses since 1976, the winner has gone on to secure the Democratic nomination in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/04/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">seven instances</a>. The most notable exception in recent times was Biden, who finished <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/04/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">fourth</a> in Iowa in 2020. Of these seven successful nominees, just two — <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/04/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">Carter and Barack Obama</a> — would go on to become president. </p>
<p>The state’s Republican results are significantly more mixed. Just <a href="https://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/history/">three winners</a> of the eight contested caucuses since 1976 became the party’s nominee. Only one of those, George W. Bush, went on to win the White House.</p>
<p>Almost every major party nominee <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/13/only-two-recent-major-party-nominees-have-lost-both-iowa-new-hampshire/">since 1972</a> has, however, won in either Iowa or New Hampshire. The only two exceptions were Bill Clinton in 1992 and Biden in 2020.</p>
<p>Iowans and New Hampshirites are not clairvoyants with their fingers on the pulse of the nation. Yet their influence helps determine the presidential frontrunners, media narratives, donor contributions and campaign expenditures before millions of other Americans are able to vote. This can shape the rest of the election.</p>
<p>The reason for this is the structure of the US primary calendar. Because the contests are drawn out over five months, establishing early momentum is essential to carving out a path to the nomination, particularly given the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/11/01/1205728664/campaign-finance-donations-election-fec-fundraising-ad-spending">exorbitant cost</a> of running for president. </p>
<p>Until the structure of the US primary system changes, or another state replaces both Iowa and New Hampshire at the top of the primary calendars, the eyes of the world will continue to turn to both of these tiny states every four years.</p>
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<p><em>Correction: this story has been amended to correct how many Republican winners of Iowa went on to the win the White House. The story initially said two, George W. Bush and Gerald Ford, but Ford lost the general election in 1976.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221306/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Iowa and New Hampshire have long cemented their status as the first-in-the-nation deciders in presidential nominating contests. This outsized influence has increasingly come under scrutiny.Ava Kalinauskas, Research Associate, United States Studies Centre, University of SydneySamuel Garrett, Research Associate, United States Studies Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205092024-01-04T13:48:30Z2024-01-04T13:48:30ZHow the Iowa caucuses became the first major challenge of US presidential campaigns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567745/original/file-20240103-27-wzffb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Guests attend a rally for former U.S. President Donald Trump on Dec. 19, 2023, in Waterloo, Iowa.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/guests-attend-a-campaign-event-hosted-by-republican-news-photo/1868318344?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first and most visible test of Republican candidate support in the 2024 presidential election is the <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2019/11/16/iowa-caucuses-just-one-testing-ground-candidates/2575267001/">Iowa caucuses</a>, which take place on <a href="https://www.iowagop.org/2024caucus">Jan. 15, 2024</a>. </p>
<p>This year, even though Democrat Joe Biden is not facing a serious challenger for renomination, the Democrats had already <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-republican-presidential-hopefuls-iowa-is-still-the-first-political-beauty-contest-198385">decided to move</a> their first test to South Carolina on <a href="https://www.foxcarolina.com/2024/01/03/important-deadlines-released-sc-presidential-primary-voter-registration/">Feb. 3, 2024</a>.</p>
<p>While Iowa does not control who becomes the candidate of each party, Iowans’ choices almost always end up <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2019/11/16/iowa-caucuses-just-one-testing-ground-candidates/2575267001/">matching the rest of the nation</a>.</p>
<p>One of the architects of the modern Iowa caucuses, which began in 1972, wrote that the significance of the caucus was unanticipated. </p>
<p>“Never in our dreams did we realize we would be ‘first in the nation,’ nor did we ever expect anyone outside Iowa would pay much attention,” retired Iowa State University <a href="https://learn.canvas.net/courses/690/pages/full-reading-week-1-section-2">engineering professor Richard Seagrave wrote</a>. </p>
<p>Seagrave said that it wasn’t political calculation that led to the choice to run the caucuses early in the election year. It was the “immense amount of paperwork” needed to document caucus proceedings with only a slow mimeograph machine that led to the choice of such an early caucus date.</p>
<p>“Remember that we had no ‘user-friendly’ computers or high-speed copy machines in 1972,” wrote Seagrave.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/W/bo10415852.html">significance of first-in-the-nation</a> placement did not become clear until a barely known governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/jimmy-carter-iowa-caucuses/426729/">came to Iowa in 1976</a> to test the waters for a presidential run. </p>
<p>That year, “<a href="https://learn.canvas.net/courses/690/pages/full-reading-week-1-section-3">Uncommitted</a>” got 14,508 votes (37%). Carter came in with 10,764 votes (27%) but was declared the winner. He went on to get the nomination and win the presidency. The fact that a relative unknown – spending little money but lots of time and face-to-face campaigning – could win was surprising.</p>
<h2>Why a caucus?</h2>
<p>Before the modern system for choosing presidential candidates was invented, the mechanism since 1832 for nominating presidential candidates had been a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jah/article-abstract/61/4/1097/705185?redirectedFrom=fulltext">national political convention of each party</a>. Voters in each state convention elected delegates to the national convention. A caucus is one way state party leaders picked whom to send and whom those delegates should support.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Chicago Mayor Richard Daley at the 1968 Democratic National Convention. Daley’s response to violence at the convention led to major political reforms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/AP-Was-There-Chicago-Riots/1fbc4ed9150a48c982c2808f2f9faf9a/1/0">AP/Jack Thornell, File</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Political bosses, such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Huey-Long-American-politician">Huey Long from Louisiana</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boss-Tweed">William “Boss” Tweed</a> of New York, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/James-Michael-Curley">James Michael Curley</a> of Boston and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-J-Pendergast">Tom Pendergast from Kansas City</a>, had the real power in the 19th and early 20th centuries through their political organizations. Bosses <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/bosses-and-bossism-political">offered aid</a> – housing, medical care, food, clothing – to people before government services became common. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/bosses.htm">Pendergast once told The New York Times</a>, “When a poor man comes to old Tom’s boys for help we don’t make one of those damn fool investigations like these city charities. No, by God, we fill his belly and warm his back and vote him our way.”</p>
<p>A vestige of that political era lasted into the second half of the 20th century, when the actions of Chicago’s longtime political boss, Democratic Mayor Richard Daley, led to a profound change in the presidential candidate selection process.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">The 1968 Democratic National Convention</a> took place in Chicago, a city tightly controlled by Daley. His operatives had long seen to it that people voted for Daley and his chosen candidates.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.history.com/news/1968-political-violence">1968 was a year of violence related to race and the Vietnam War</a>. Riots disrupted the convention. <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">Mayor Daley used his police force to crush</a> the protests. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/democratic-convention-besieged-by-protesters">Daley then bullied delegates</a> to nominate <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/B/bo5826735.html">his favored candidate</a>, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, even though Humphrey <a href="https://time.com/4414685/1968-democratic-convention-reform-geoffrey-cowan/">didn’t win</a> a single primary election. </p>
<p>All of this was covered live on television. The violence and bias threatened to taint the Democratic Party.</p>
<h2>1968 provokes reforms</h2>
<p>The Democratic Party created the McGovern–Fraser Commission in 1968 in <a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/mcgovern-fraser-commission-report/">response to the events in Chicago</a>. The new rules changed the party’s presidential nominating process in an attempt to make them more systematic and transparent, as well as to encourage more participation by minority groups, young people and women roughly proportional to their numbers in states.</p>
<p>It was <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2149263">these reforms</a> that launched Iowa’s caucuses in 1972.</p>
<p>In 1976, the <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/08/30/iowa-caucus-a-brief-history-of-why-iowa-caucuses-are-first-election-2020-dnc-virtual-caucus/2163813001/">Iowa Republican Party followed the Democrats</a> and began holding caucuses on the same early date. </p>
<p>That increased the visibility of the Iowa caucuses out of proportion to their actual numeric influence in the nominating convention. In 2020, for instance, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020">Iowa sent only 49 delegates</a> out of the estimated total of 4,594 Democratic delegates.</p>
<p>In fact, the caucuses are in large part a media event and a beauty contest, as <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt20mvfpw">scholars Hugh Winebrenner and Dennis J. Goldford</a> have suggested. </p>
<p>One memorable caucus occurred in 2004, when <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/howard-dean-s-scream-turns-15-its-impact-american-politics-n959916">Vermont Gov. Howard Dean</a>, who came in third, was cheering on his supporters as he contemplated a national campaign. But a microphone malfunction amplified his enthusiasm. What become known as the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6i-gYRAwM0">“Dean Scream”</a> tanked his candidacy. </p>
<p>Another took place in 2008 when a first-term U.S. senator, Barack Obama, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/jan-2008-barack-obama-wins-2008-iowa-caucus-52099437">won the Iowa caucuses</a>, propelling him to a hard-fought nomination and two terms in the White House. </p>
<p>And in 2016, Democratic Socialist <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/02/hillary-clinton-wins-iowa-caucuses-bernie-sanders-young-voters">Bernie Sanders almost beat Hillary Clinton</a> in Iowa. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sen. Barack Obama’s surprise win in the 2008 Iowa caucuses helped propel him to the presidency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Obama-2008/a48b051db43c455ba950a68b56de00d1/48/0">AP/M. Spencer Green</a></span>
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<h2>How they do it</h2>
<p>On caucus night, Republican voters gather at precinct meeting places that have included schools, libraries, churches, fire stations and <a href="https://youtu.be/wU1JrPmCZTE">even people’s homes</a>. <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/09/20/dnc-approves-iowa-caucuses-satellite-location-plan-2020-democrats-democratic-party/2387347001/">In 2020, Democrats also had satellite caucuses</a>, with some even held overseas. </p>
<p>There are speeches by supporters who gather into groups for each candidate. The numbers in each group are counted.</p>
<p>Once the viable groups have been declared, a complex mathematical calculation determines how many delegates are allocated to each surviving candidate. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/01/30/464960979/how-do-the-iowa-caucuses-work">Republican caucuses</a>, attendees vote and the delegates are apportioned according to the statewide results.</p>
<h2>The Iowa caucuses become a tradition</h2>
<p>The Iowa caucuses have become a political tradition because the media devotes so much attention to the candidates’ activities in Iowa and then to how they perform on caucus night. </p>
<p>Criticisms have emerged. Iowa’s small and mostly white population has subjected the caucus to the charge that it is <a href="https://fortune.com/2016/01/20/iowa-caucus-reflect-us/">not representative of the nation as a whole</a>. </p>
<p>A 2019 <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/12/19/democratic-debate-poll-says-iowa-new-hampshire-either-great-terrible/2673988001/">USA Today/Suffolk University poll</a> attested to that concern: While 57% of respondents liked that the opening contests in Iowa and New Hampshire forced candidates to talk directly to voters, 52% thought that the two states didn’t reflect the nation’s diversity. </p>
<p>There is also a concern that caucuses are difficult events to participate in because voters must attend personally and at night. The turnout rate of eligible voters is low, hovering around 10%, while <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/10/turnout-was-high-in-the-2016-primary-season-but-just-short-of-2008-record/">primaries normally have turnouts of 35% or more</a>.</p>
<p>In 2020, there was renewed debate about <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/too-much-democracy-is-bad-for-democracy/600766/">how Americans should select their candidates for president</a>. Caucuses are now generally in disfavor, with many states moving to primaries. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article <a href="https://theconversation.com/be127173">originally published on Jan. 1, 2020</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steffen W. Schmidt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A political scientist traces the development of the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses and how the small, rural state became influential in presidential politics.Steffen W. Schmidt, Professor of Political Science, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2004112023-10-05T12:34:13Z2023-10-05T12:34:13ZThe splendid life of Jimmy Carter – 5 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511714/original/file-20230222-26-wdgm71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=129%2C54%2C2027%2C1377&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cuban President Fidel Castro watches former U.S. President Jimmy Carter throw a baseball on May 14, 2002, in Havana, Cuba.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cuban-president-fidel-castro-watches-former-us-president-news-photo/73894798?phrase=jimmy%20carter%20fidel%20castro&adppopup=true">Sven Creutzmann/Mambo Photography/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In <em>Mark 8:34-38</em> a question is asked: “For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?”</p>
<p>Jimmy Carter never lost his soul. </p>
<p>A person who served others, Jimmy Carter did more to advance the cause of human rights than any U.S. president in American history. That tireless commitment “to advance democracy and human rights” was noted by the Nobel Committee when it honored Carter with its <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2002/summary/">Peace Prize</a> in 2002.</p>
<p>From establishing the nonprofit <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/">Carter Center</a> to working for <a href="https://www.habitat.org/volunteer/build-events/carter-work-project">Habitat for Humanity</a>, Carter never lost his moral compass in his public policies. </p>
<p>Over the years, The Conversation U.S. has published numerous stories exploring the legacy of the nation’s 39th president – and his blessed life after leaving the world of American politics. Here are selections from those articles. </p>
<h2>1. A preacher at heart</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.asbury.edu/about/directory/david-swartz/">As a scholar</a> of American religious history, Asbury University Professor David Swartz believes that a speech Carter gave on July 15, 1979, was the most theologically profound speech by an American president since <a href="https://www.nps.gov/linc/learn/historyculture/lincoln-second-inaugural.htm">Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address</a>, on March 4, 1865.</p>
<p>Carter’s nationally televised sermon was watched by 65 million Americans as he “intoned an evangelical-sounding lament about a crisis of the American spirit,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/revisiting-jimmy-carters-truth-telling-sermon-to-americans-97241">Swartz wrote</a>. </p>
<p>“All the legislation in the world,” Carter proclaimed during the speech, “can’t fix what’s wrong with America.”</p>
<p>What was wrong, Carter believed, was self-indulgence and consumption. </p>
<p>“Human identity is no longer defined by what one does but by what one owns,” Carter preached. But “owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/revisiting-jimmy-carters-truth-telling-sermon-to-americans-97241">Revisiting Jimmy Carter's truth-telling sermon to Americans</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. Tough-minded policies on human rights</h2>
<p>Though Carter was considered a weak leader after <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/11/04/the-iranian-hostage-crisis-and-its-effect-on-american-politics/">Iranian religious militants</a> seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979, his overseas policies were far more effective than critics have claimed, <a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carters-lasting-cold-war-legacy-human-rights-focus-helped-dismantle-the-soviet-union-113994">wrote</a> Gonzaga University historian <a href="https://www.gonzaga.edu/college-of-arts-sciences/faculty-listing/detail/donnelly">Robert C. Donnelly</a>, especially when it came to the former Soviet Union.</p>
<p>Shortly after the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2014/08/the-soviet-war-in-afghanistan-1979-1989/100786/">Soviet invasion of Afghanistan</a> in 1979, for instance, Carter imposed an embargo on <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/08/16/639149657/farmers-caught-up-in-u-s-trade-war-s-remember-80-s-grain-embargo">U.S. grain sales</a> that targeted the Soviet Union’s dependence on imported wheat and corn to feed its population. </p>
<p>To further punish the Soviets, Carter persuaded the U.S. Olympic Committee to refrain from competing in the upcoming Moscow Olympics while the Soviets repressed their own people and occupied Afghanistan.</p>
<p>Among Carter’s critics, none was harsher than Ronald Reagan. But in 1986, after beating Carter for the White House, even he had to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1986/04/06/us/reagan-acknowledges-carter-s-military-buildup.html">acknowledge Carter’s foresight</a> in modernizing the nation’s military forces, a measure that further increased economic and diplomatic pressure on the Soviets. </p>
<p>“Reagan admitted that he felt very bad for misstating Carter’s policies and record on defense,” Donnelly wrote. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carters-lasting-cold-war-legacy-human-rights-focus-helped-dismantle-the-soviet-union-113994">Jimmy Carter's lasting Cold War legacy: Human rights focus helped dismantle the Soviet Union</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. Carter’s unexpected liberal foe</h2>
<p>Reagan’s win over Carter in the 1980 U.S. presidential race was due in part to Carter’s bitter race during the Democratic primary against an heir to one of America’s great political families – Ted Kennedy. </p>
<p>Kennedy’s decision to run against Carter was “something of a shock to Carter,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-lion-of-the-senate-roared-like-a-mouse-39826">wrote</a> <a href="https://www.bu.edu/cgs/profile/thomas-whalen/">Thomas J. Whalen</a>, a Boston University associate professor of social science. </p>
<p>In 1979, Kennedy had pledged to support Carter’s reelection bid but later succumbed to pressure in liberal Democratic circles to launch his own presidential bid and fulfill his family’s destiny. </p>
<p>In addition, Whalen wrote, Kennedy “harbored deep reservations about Carter’s leadership, especially in the wake of a faltering domestic economy, high inflation and the seizure of the American Embassy in Iran by radical Muslim students.”</p>
<p>In response, Carter vowed to “whip (Kennedy’s) ass.” </p>
<p>And did. </p>
<p>But that win over Kennedy came at a high cost. </p>
<p>“Having expended so much political and financial capital fending off Kennedy’s challenge,” Whalen wrote, “he was easy pickings for Reagan in that fall’s general election.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-lion-of-the-senate-roared-like-a-mouse-39826">When the Lion of the Senate roared like a mouse</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>4. A quiet fight against a deadly disease</h2>
<p>Guinea worm is a painful parasitic disease that is contracted when people consume water from stagnant sources contaminated with the worm’s larvae. </p>
<p>Clemson University Professor Kimberly Paul has <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yb246-8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">worked as a parasitologist</a> for over two decades. </p>
<p>"I know the suffering that parasitic diseases like Guinea worm infections inflict on humanity, especially on the world’s most vulnerable and poor communities,” she <a href="https://theconversation.com/guinea-worm-a-nasty-parasite-is-nearly-eradicated-but-the-push-for-zero-cases-will-require-patience-199156">wrote</a>.</p>
<p>In 1986, it infected an estimated 3.5 million people per year in 21 countries in Africa and Asia. </p>
<p>Since then, that number has been reduced by more than 99.99% to 13 provisional cases in 2022, in large part because of Carter and his efforts to eradicate the disease. Those efforts included teaching people to filter all drinking water.</p>
<p>Over time, Carter’s efforts proved tremendously successful. On Jan. 24, 2023, The Carter Center, the nonprofit founded by the former U.S. president, <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/2023/2022-guinea-worm-worldwide-cases-announcement.html">announced</a> that “Guinea worm is poised to become the second human disease in history to be eradicated.”</p>
<p>The first was smallpox. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/guinea-worm-a-nasty-parasite-is-nearly-eradicated-but-the-push-for-zero-cases-will-require-patience-199156">Guinea worm: A nasty parasite is nearly eradicated, but the push for zero cases will require patience</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>5. Carter’s brave step in Cuba</h2>
<p>In 2002, long after his departure from the White House in 1981, Carter became the the first U.S. president to visit Cuba since the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/post-revolution-cuba/">1959 Cuban Revolution</a>. Carter had accepted the invitation of then President Fidel Castro.</p>
<p><a href="https://chrd.gsu.edu/profile/jennifer-mccoy-2-4/">Jennifer Lynn McCoy</a>, now at Georgia State University, was director of <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/peace/americas/index.html">The Carter Center’s Americas Program</a> at the time and accompanied Carter on that trip, on which he <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/documents/doc517.html">gave a speech in Spanish</a> that called on Castro to lift restrictions on free speech and assembly, among other constitutional reforms.</p>
<p>Castro was unmoved by the speech but instead invited Carter <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/cuba-and-the-united-states-play-beisbol-diplomacy/">to watch a Cuban all-star baseball game</a>. </p>
<p>At the game, McCoy <a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carter-in-cuba-46109">wrote</a>, “Castro asked Carter for a favor” – to walk to the pitcher’s mound without his security detail to show how much confidence he had in the Cuban people.</p>
<p>Over the objections of his Secret Service agents, Carter obliged and walked to the mound with Castro and threw out the first pitch.</p>
<p>Carter’s move was a symbol of what normal relations could look like between the two nations – and of Carter’s unwavering faith. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carter-in-cuba-46109">Jimmy Carter in Cuba</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200411/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Beloved in his hometown of Plains, Georgia, Jimmy Carter became the 39th US president and used his office to make human rights a priority throughout the world.Howard Manly, Race + Equity Editor, The Conversation USLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2111692023-08-09T22:31:08Z2023-08-09T22:31:08ZThe U.S. tendency to mythologize presidents may explain Donald Trump’s appeal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541832/original/file-20230809-21-19f9mv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4873%2C3195&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump acknowledges a supporter at a campaign rally on Aug. 8, 2023, at a high school in New Hampshire.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-us-tendency-to-mythologize-presidents-may-explain-donald-trumps-appeal" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Donald Trump faces three separate indictments — over 70 criminal and felony counts — <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/08/us/trump-georgia-election-grand-jury.html">with additional charges likely to come in the days ahead</a>.</p>
<p>But more stunning than the unprecedented legal cases against the former president is that Trump stands a solid chance of being re-elected president of the United States in 2024.</p>
<p>In most democracies, someone facing serious legal proceedings would not be able to run for office due to constitutional barriers or the inability to be nominated by a political party. Although ex-leaders in other nations are <a href="https://theconversation.com/prosecuting-a-president-is-divisive-and-sometimes-destabilizing-heres-why-many-countries-do-it-anyway-188565">investigated, prosecuted and sometimes even jailed</a>, they very rarely return to power.</p>
<p>What accounts for Trump’s continuing appeal to many American voters?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blond man wearing a blue suit and a red tie steps out of an aircraft. His tie and hair blow in the wind." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541831/original/file-20230809-15-o0tbaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6501%2C4243&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541831/original/file-20230809-15-o0tbaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541831/original/file-20230809-15-o0tbaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541831/original/file-20230809-15-o0tbaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541831/original/file-20230809-15-o0tbaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541831/original/file-20230809-15-o0tbaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541831/original/file-20230809-15-o0tbaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former president Donald Trump arrives at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on Aug. 3, 2023, to face a judge on federal conspiracy charges alleging he conspired to subvert the 2020 election. He pleaded not guilty.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>American exceptionalism</h2>
<p>American presidents have always been seen to be exceptional individuals. The <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/1/14/why-does-the-us-mythologise-its-former-presidents">myths around U.S. presidents are large</a> and grow over time. </p>
<p>George Washington’s bravery and leadership ensuring victory during the War of Independence. Abraham Lincoln’s honesty and idealism prevailing during the Civil War. Franklin D. Roosevelt’s vision and determination defeating both the Great Depression in the 1930s and the Axis powers during the Second World War.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541833/original/file-20230809-15-dlv2tb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An elderly man with white hair and a jacket and shirt smiles." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541833/original/file-20230809-15-dlv2tb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541833/original/file-20230809-15-dlv2tb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541833/original/file-20230809-15-dlv2tb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541833/original/file-20230809-15-dlv2tb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541833/original/file-20230809-15-dlv2tb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541833/original/file-20230809-15-dlv2tb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541833/original/file-20230809-15-dlv2tb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this November 2019 photo, former president Jimmy Carter teaches Sunday school at a Baptist church in Plains, Ga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Amis)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even for a presidency deemed less than successful, post-White House actions — as demonstrated by Jimmy Carter’s human rights activism — can redeem a legacy and <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/8/17/9163717/jimmy-carter-great-leader-outsider">elevate the former president to near mythic status</a>.</p>
<p>Being a typical or average politician running for president will not entice political donors, supporters and voters. Instead, Americans like to believe their presidential candidates have fought their way to the party’s nomination and to election day.</p>
<p>Each president <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-jackie-kennedy-invented-the-camelot-legend-after-jfks-death">has his own myth</a>, such as rising from poverty, remaining calm under even the most dire circumstances, staring down American enemies abroad or using their status after the end of their years in the White House for the benefit of humanity.</p>
<p>Amid his legal battles, Trump is capitalizing on the desire of some Americans to regard their leaders as larger than life. In the U.S., the president is both head of state and head of government. That isn’t the case in many countries, and it results in far less pressure for one person to embody an entire nation and its people.</p>
<p>In the Trump mythology, the criminal charges are but the arrows of his political enemies, the civil charges but the jabs of the jealous. For Americans — <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/lawyers-per-capita-by-country">with more lawyers per capita than any other nation</a> — being charged with a crime is not as uncommon as it is elsewhere. An estimated <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/27/perspectives/second-chance-hiring-dimon/index.html">70 million Americans have a criminal record</a>.</p>
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<h2>Trump never backs down</h2>
<p>Trump battles on. He never gives in. He always denies wrongdoing. He is ever ready to delay and appeal. He’s always looking for the next legal and political battle. He’s ever vigilant of public perception, and he makes sure to pander to his base of supporters.</p>
<p>His aim to return to the presidency <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/483935-we-must-reject-trumps-coup-on-the-american-dream/">is the American dream</a>. Every child is taught that no matter what his or her circumstances, attaining the highest office in the land is within grasp. </p>
<p>Trump lost after only one term, sought to remain in office, is accused of inciting a riot to stay in power and then held onto classified documents, among other alleged and actual misdeeds. In the face of so much adversity — even though it’s largely of his own making — Trump’s return to the political arena represents the epitome of the American dream for some.</p>
<p>After all, that dream is one of equal opportunity for all so that everyone can attain their highest goals. From this viewpoint, Trump’s legal woes are simply obstacles that need to be overcome to reach the final goal.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Hundreds of people storm the Capital building. Tear gas and Trump banners are seen amid the chaos." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541834/original/file-20230809-25-j8r79e.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541834/original/file-20230809-25-j8r79e.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541834/original/file-20230809-25-j8r79e.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541834/original/file-20230809-25-j8r79e.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541834/original/file-20230809-25-j8r79e.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541834/original/file-20230809-25-j8r79e.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541834/original/file-20230809-25-j8r79e.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Insurrectionists loyal to Donald Trump storm the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/THE ASSOCIATED PRESS/John Minchillo</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trump’s stature is enhanced</h2>
<p>Trump portrays himself as a man who, through grit and good old American “never-say-die” determination, is following his dream. Being <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/what-are-the-legal-cases-against-donald-trump.html">the only former president to be indicted</a> just adds to the magnitude of the hurdles he must clear — and enhances his stature among supporters.</p>
<p>Nothing in the American constitution or federal laws prevents Trump from seeking the presidency or serving if elected. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/13/senate-acquits-former-president-donald-trump-on-charge-of-inciting-insurrection-at-us-capitol-.html">Because the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate acquitted Trump</a> of inciting the Jan. 6 Capitol Hill insurrection, he meets all remaining <a href="https://www.usa.gov/requirements-for-presidential-candidates">constitutional criteria:</a> he’s at least 35 years old, he’s a natural-born citizen and he’s lived in the U.S. for at least 14 years.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1360693221102399491"}"></div></p>
<p>There is a long list of American politicians, most recently Joe Biden, who have faced defeat throughout the course of their careers only to win substantially years later. Second and third chances are common in presidential campaigns. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/16/902640265/joe-bidens-long-and-rocky-road-to-the-democratic-nomination">Biden sought the Democratic nomination three times</a>. <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/reagan/campaigns-and-elections">Ronald Reagan lost his first run at the Republican nomination</a>. Richard Nixon <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/richard-m-nixon/">lost his first election for president but prevailed eight years later.</a></p>
<p>It’s the electorate, not the courts, that will decide Trump’s fate in the fall of 2024. Many voters appear willing to give Trump a second chance, regardless of his legal travails.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211169/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Klassen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s the electorate, not the courts, that will decide Donald Trump’s fate in 2024. Many voters appear willing to give him a second chance — as Americans often do when it comes to former presidentsThomas Klassen, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2104442023-08-08T19:07:18Z2023-08-08T19:07:18ZKamala Harris has tied the record for the most tie-breaking votes in Senate history – a brief overview of what vice presidents do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540877/original/file-20230802-6332-61kj04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C21%2C4690%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to cast a tiebreaking vote in the U.S. Senate.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-kamala-harris-arrives-at-the-senate-chamber-news-photo/1500382345">Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Jan. 20, 2021, <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-kamala-harris-joe-bidens-pick-for-vice-president-144122">Kamala Harris</a> became the <a href="https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-represents-an-opportunity-for-coalition-building-between-blacks-and-asian-americans-144547">first African American, the first person of South Asian descent</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/before-kamala-harris-became-bidens-running-mate-shirley-chisholm-and-other-black-women-aimed-for-the-white-house-143655">first</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/call-in-the-women-chrystia-freeland-and-kamala-harriss-new-roles-respond-to-the-times-144896">woman</a> to serve as vice president of the United States.</p>
<p>More recently, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-tiebreaker-vote-db39d642bc423f4984b0ad7b32139ecb">she made history again</a> by casting her 31st tie-breaking vote in the Senate, matching only one other vice president’s record for such votes. <a href="https://rollcall.com/2023/07/12/harris-ties-calhouns-191-year-old-record-for-breaking-senate-ties/">John C. Calhoun</a>, who was vice president from 1825 to 1832, needed all eight years of his term to reach that number. In contrast, Harris has only been in office for two and a half years.</p>
<p>If her tie-breaking continues, Harris could end up as one of the most <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3689844-why-kamala-harris-is-already-among-the-most-consequential-vice-presidents-in-history/">consequential</a> vice presidents in history, casting the deciding votes on several laws, <a href="https://theconversation.com/states-pick-judges-very-differently-from-us-supreme-court-appointments-160142">judicial nominations</a> and spending plans. However, this distinction says more about the Senate than the amount of power the vice president actually wields.</p>
<h2>The ‘most insignificant’ office?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="John Adams" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Adams, the nation’s first vice president, called the job ‘the most insignificant Office.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gilbert_Stuart,_John_Adams,_c._1800-1815,_NGA_42933.jpg">Gilbert Stuart, National Gallery of Art via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The role of vice president is only mentioned in the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">U.S. Constitution</a> a handful of times.</p>
<p>Article I, Section 3 says that the vice president “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-3-">shall be President of the Senate but shall have no Vote</a>” except in the event of a tie. Historically, ties have been rare. Since 1789, only <a href="https://www.senate.gov/legislative/TieVotes.htm">299 tie-breaking votes</a> have been cast, and 12 vice presidents, including current President Joe Biden, <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/resources/pdf/VPTies.pdf">never cast a single one</a>.</p>
<p>The beginning of Article II, Section 1 explains how vice presidents are elected, which was later revised by the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxii">12th Amendment</a>. The end of that section states that presidential power “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-1--2">shall devolve on the Vice President</a>” in the event of the president’s “Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-2/section-1/clause-6/succession-clause-for-the-presidency">As written, it is unclear</a> whether this meant that a vice president became the new president or was simply serving in an acting capacity. This was later clarified with the passage of the 25th Amendment, which states that “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv">the Vice President shall become President</a>.” The 25th Amendment also outlines how to fill a vacancy in the vice presidency, and it provides a mechanism for the vice president to serve temporarily as president if a president becomes “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-25th-amendment-says-about-presidents-who-are-unable-to-serve-102825">unable to discharge the powers and duties</a> of his office.”</p>
<p>Finally, Article II, Section 4 states that vice presidents, like presidents, can be “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-4--2">removed from Office</a> on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.” </p>
<p>So, other than <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/1010.html">staying out of trouble</a> to avoid impeachment and waiting around to <a href="https://tbsnews.net/world/what-happens-when-us-president-dies-or-incapacitated-141037">serve as</a> – or replace – the president, vice presidents are really only obligated to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mike-pence-casts-tie-breaking-vote-confirm-betsy-devos-education-n717836">occasionally cast a tiebreaking vote</a> in the Senate. This means that the great majority of the time, vice presidents have no real job to do.</p>
<p>John Adams, the first U.S. vice president, once complained to his wife that the vice presidency was “<a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Adams/04-09-02-0278">the most insignificant Office</a> that ever the Invention of Man contrived or his Imagination conceived.” </p>
<p>However, not all have been upset about such inactivity. Woodrow Wilson’s vice president, Thomas Marshall, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/wilson-thomas-marshall/">quipped after he retired</a>: “I don’t want to work … [but] I wouldn’t mind being Vice President again.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Will Hays with Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Warren Harding, center, wanted his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, at right, to play an active role in governing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chairman-of-the-republican-national-committee-will-h-hays-news-photo/501167655">FPG/Keystone View Company/Archive Photos via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘last voice in the room’</h2>
<p>Wilson’s successor as president, Warren Harding, had unconventional views about the importance of the role of the vice president. He thought that “the vice president should be <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">more than a mere substitute in waiting</a>,” and he wished for his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, “to be a helpful part” of his administration. Coolidge later became the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/officers-staff/vice-president/VP_Calvin_Coolidge.htm">first vice president</a> in history to attend Cabinet meetings on a regular basis. </p>
<p>In 1923, Harding died, likely of a <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/after-90-years-president-warren-hardings-death-still-unsettled">heart attack</a>, and Coolidge succeeded him as president. “My experience in the Cabinet,” <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">Coolidge later recalled</a>, “was of supreme value to me when I became President.”</p>
<p>After Harding and Coolidge, many later presidents reverted back to the tradition of keeping vice presidents an arm’s length away, even on key matters. Franklin D. Roosevelt, for instance, <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/manhattan-project">kept the atomic bomb a secret</a> from Vice President Harry S. Truman, who <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/profile/harry-truman">didn’t find out</a> about it until Roosevelt’s death.</p>
<p>For the 1960 presidential election, two-term Vice President Richard Nixon faced off against Sen. John F. Kennedy. At one point during the campaign, reporters asked then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower: “Can you think of a major contribution that Nixon has made to your administration?” Eisenhower replied: “<a href="https://www.virginiabusiness.com/article/how-many-u-s-vice-presidents-can-you-name/">Well, if you give me a week I might think of one</a>.” Nixon lost that election.</p>
<p>In 1976, Jimmy Carter picked Sen. Walter Mondale as his running mate. In a memo sent to Carter after winning the election, Mondale argued that “[t]he <a href="http://www2.mnhs.org/library/findaids/00697/pdf/Mondale-CarterMemo.pdf">biggest single problem of our recent administrations</a> has been the failure of the President to be exposed to independent analysis not conditioned by what it is thought he wants to hear or often what others want him to hear.” </p>
<p>Mondale’s vision for the role of vice president was “to offer impartial advice” so that Carter wouldn’t be “shielded from points of view that [he] should hear.” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/07/20/how-the-vice-president-became-a-powerful-and-influential-white-house-player/">Carter agreed</a> and subsequently made Mondale an integral part of his inner circle.</p>
<p>Biden served 36 years in the Senate before leaving to become Barack Obama’s vice president. When he agreed to be Obama’s running mate, Biden said he wanted to be the “<a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2012-09-06-sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-bidenbre8850xj-20120906-story.html">last man in the room</a>” whenever important decisions were being made so he could give Obama his unfiltered opinion. When Biden picked Harris as his running mate, he said he “asked Kamala to be the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-harris-make-appearance-historic-democratic-ticket/story?id=72327968">last voice in the room</a>,” to “[c]hallenge [his] assumptions if she disagrees,” and to “[a]sk the hard questions.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vice President Walter Mondale, right, was an active part of President Jimmy Carter’s administration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CarterMondale/160e66151d984d9fb00f4da936a7252f/photo">AP Photo/Harvey Georges</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An ally in an increasingly divided Senate</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm">Under the rules of the U.S. Senate</a>, if just one lawmaker doesn’t want a bill to advance, they can attempt to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HJuaQL3KRI">delay</a> its passage indefinitely via <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-us-states-dont-have-a-filibuster-nor-do-many-democratic-countries-156093">the filibuster</a>. A supermajority of three-fifths of the senators, or 60 of the 100, is required <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-senate-filibuster-explained-and-why-it-should-be-allowed-to-die-123551">to stop the filibuster</a> – or signal that one would not succeed – and proceed to a vote.</p>
<p>Over the years, the Senate has made <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/23/13709518/budget-reconciliation-explained">various procedural</a> <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/nuclear-option-what-it-why-it-matters-n742076">changes</a> to the filibuster, limiting when it can be used.</p>
<p>The end result of <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/filibuster-reform-short-guide">these reforms</a> is that the Senate is now empowered to do more with just a simple majority. In addition, in recent years, the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm">Senate has become increasingly divided</a>. Together, this has created the conditions that have empowered Harris to cast so many tie-breaking votes so quickly, solidifying both her place in history and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-biden-might-drop-his-vice-president-and-reasons-why-he-shouldnt-199655">her place alongside Biden in the 2024 election</a>.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-the-vice-president-do-152467">article</a> initially published Jan. 19, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Holzer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kamala Harris is on track to be one of the most influential vice presidents in history. This says more about the Senate than the amount of power the vice president actually wields.Joshua Holzer, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Westminster CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882682023-06-13T12:30:17Z2023-06-13T12:30:17ZThe overlooked story of the incarceration of Japanese Americans from Hawaii during World War II<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529104/original/file-20230530-23-br74q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=215%2C30%2C742%2C336&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A 1945 photograph of detainees at the Honouliuli Internment Camp.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://npgallery.nps.gov/AssetDetail/bedc8c747d3d46ae9ffe6368e16eb64c">courtesy of National Park Service</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the months and years following Japan’s bombing of Pearl Harbor in Hawaii on Dec. 7, 1941, the U.S. government incarcerated a large number of Japanese American civilians from the U.S. mainland. </p>
<p>Often forgotten are the Japanese Americans who lived in Hawaii and were also forced from their homes and imprisoned in Hawaii and on the U.S. mainland. </p>
<p>Their forced relocation and incarceration has been largely omitted from the dominant narrative of Japanese American internment in the U.S. during World War II. Additionally, attempts by governments to provide redress to those individuals and memorialize their treatment have been slower than for individuals interned on the U.S. mainland. </p>
<h2>Internment in the US mainland and Hawaii</h2>
<p>In February 1942, President Franklin Roosevelt <a href="https://tupress.temple.edu/books/the-rise-and-fall-of-america-s-concentration-camp-law#:%7E:text=It%20restricted%20the%20freedom%20of,it%20was%20repealed%20in%201971.">issued</a> <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/executive-order-9066">Executive Order 9066</a>, which allowed for the creation of U.S. military areas from which people could be excluded. </p>
<p>Although the executive order made no mention of any ethnic group, it implicitly <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-shameful-stories-of-environmental-injustices-at-japanese-american-incarceration-camps-during-wwii-174011">targeted Japanese Americans</a> because of widespread xenophobic fear that they would spy for the Japanese government or engage in acts of sabotage within the U.S.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A crowd of men gathers behind President Franklin D. Roosevelt as he signs a paper." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On Dec. 8, 1941, a day after the attack on Pearl Harbor, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the U.S. declaration of war against Japan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cabinet-members-watch-with-mixed-emotions-as-president-news-photo/514080362?adppopup=true">Bettmann/GettyImages</a></span>
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<p>As a result, almost 120,000 civilians of Japanese ancestry, the majority of whom were from the West Coast and were American citizens, were <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-4614-9185-9">incarcerated</a> in camps by the government on suspicion that they <a href="https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295984513/judgment-without-trial/">posed a threat</a> to U.S. security on basis of their ancestry.</p>
<p>In Hawaii, which had been colonized by the U.S. in 1898, the incarceration of Japanese Americans was much smaller in scale than that on the mainland.</p>
<p>Given that Japanese Americans <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p067648">made up</a> more than one third of Hawaii’s total population during World War II and thus a sizable <a href="https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295984513/judgment-without-trial/">wartime</a> labor force, U.S. forces incarcerated about <a href="https://www.nativebookshawaii.org/products/bayonets-in-paradise-martial-law-in-hawai%CA%BBi-during-world-war-ii">2,000 Japanese Americans</a> from Hawaii. These people <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/psq.12695">included</a> community figures, Japanese language teachers and Shinto priests.</p>
<p>Additionally, hundreds of Japanese Americans in Hawaii, although not imprisoned, were <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p067648">forcibly removed</a> from their homes, taken to other parts of the territory and, at times, not permitted to return to their homes.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="The official government instructions on internment of Japanese Americans." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1177&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1177&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1177&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With the authorization of the U.S. government, the U.S. military rounded up and incarcerated Japanese Americans shortly after Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-internment-of-japanese-americans-was-the-world-war-ii-news-photo/1354474652?adppopup=true">History/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Honouliuli Internment Camp, known as Hell Valley among internees, <a href="https://www.nativebookshawaii.org/products/bayonets-in-paradise-martial-law-in-hawai%CA%BBi-during-world-war-ii#:%7E:text=Bayonets%20in%20Paradise%3A%20Martial%20Law%20in%20Hawai%CA%BBi%20During%20World%20War%20II,-%2445.95&text=Hardcover%2C%20489%20pp.,Hawai%CA%BBi%20during%20World%20War%20II.">opened</a> in 1943 on the island of Oahu and was the largest confinement site in Hawaii.</p>
<p>Unlike other camps in Hawaii, it housed civilians and prisoners of war. During its three years of operation, the camp <a href="https://www.nativebookshawaii.org/products/bayonets-in-paradise-martial-law-in-hawai%CA%BBi-during-world-war-ii#:%7E:text=Bayonets%20in%20Paradise%3A%20Martial%20Law%20in%20Hawai%CA%BBi%20During%20World%20War%20II,-%2445.95&text=Hardcover%2C%20489%20pp.,Hawai%CA%BBi%20during%20World%20War%20II.">held around 320</a> Japanese American civilians.</p>
<p>The camps in Hawaii, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-shameful-stories-of-environmental-injustices-at-japanese-american-incarceration-camps-during-wwii-174011">as on the mainland</a>, were crowded, monitored by armed guards and surrounded by barbed wire fences.</p>
<p>As a result of their detention, <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/japanese-americans/justice-denied">former internees have experienced</a> mental health issues alongside heightened rates of suicide and early death.</p>
<h2>Official US redress</h2>
<p>Following <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/a-tragedy-of-democracy/9780231129237">years of advocacy</a> by Japanese American organizations, President Jimmy Carter authorized the creation of the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/congressional-report/111th-congress/house-report/666/1">Commission on Wartime Relocation and Internment of Civilians</a> in 1980.</p>
<p>Three years later, the commission <a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/24746908">issued recommendations</a>, including that the U.S. government apologize and provide reparations of US$20,000 to Japanese American survivors, including Japanese Americans from Hawaii.</p>
<p>Despite his <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/psq.12695">initial opposition </a>to the commission’s recommendation that the U.S. government provide reparations, in 1988, President Ronald Reagan signed the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/100th-congress/house-bill/442">Civil Liberties Act</a>, which provided a formal apology and reparations of $20,000 to many former internees.</p>
<p>At the signing, <a href="https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/remarks-signing-bill-providing-restitution-wartime-internment-japanese-american">Reagan referred</a> to Japanese American internment as a “grave wrong” that was undertaken “without trial … based solely on race.” </p>
<p>Despite this, he made no reference to the fact that the civilian camps were created and run by the U.S. government and Army, nor did he recognize that these actions constituted human rights abuses. </p>
<p>Furthermore, upon its creation, the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/100th-congress/house-bill/442">Civil Liberties Act</a> had a significant flaw – it excluded hundreds of affected Japanese Americans from Hawaii from receiving that restitution.</p>
<p>That oversight was corrected in 1992, when <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p067648">President George H.W. Bush</a> signed into law the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/102nd-congress/house-bill/4551/text">Civil Liberties Act Amendments</a>, which broadened eligibility for restitution.</p>
<h2>Selective memorialization</h2>
<p>Since that period, U.S. government and nongovernment organizations have selectively memorialized Japanese American incarceration by designating some prison camps as national historical sites and creating mainland-centric memorials. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.njamemorial.org/visit">National Japanese American Memorial to Patriotism During World War II</a> in Washington, D.C., created in 2000, <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=4111">includes multiple walls</a> inscribed with the names of all mainland camps and the number of individuals interned there, but makes no reference to specific incarceration camps in Hawaii.</p>
<p>That said, the monument, which was organized by a Japanese American NGO, does <a href="https://www.nps.gov/places/japanese-american-memorial-to-patriotism-during-world-war-ii.htm">include an inscription</a> which recognizes that Japanese Americans were incarcerated in the mainland and Hawaii. </p>
<p>Additionally, between 1992 and 2008, mainland camps <a href="https://www.nps.gov/manz/index.htm">Manzanar </a>and <a href="https://www.nps.gov/tule/index.htm">Tule Lake</a> in California and <a href="https://www.nps.gov/miin/index.htm">Minidoka</a> in Idaho were designated as national historical sites or monuments by U.S. presidents or Congress. However, it was not until 2015 that President Barack Obama <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/02/24/presidential-proclamation-establishment-honouliuli-national-monument">designated</a> the Honouliuli Internment Camp a national monument. </p>
<p>This selective memorialization is unsurprising given that Hawaii, like other territories colonized by the U.S., is often <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/how-to-hide-an-empire-9781473545335">omitted</a> from accounts of American history. Nonetheless, such memorialization is problematic, as it reinforces the dominant narrative of Japanese American incarceration that <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/a-tragedy-of-democracy/9780231129237">focuses on</a> the mainland camps and West Coast Japanese Americans and obscures the imprisonment of Japanese Americans from Hawaii. </p>
<p>The bombing of Pearl Harbor has become <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/a-date-which-will-live#:%7E:text=December%207%2C%201941%E2%80%94the%20date,to%20them%20are%20hardly%20settled">ingrained in American memory</a> and, as a result, for many Americans, Hawaii symbolizes white American victimhood. </p>
<p>But as the incarceration of Japanese Americans from Hawaii demonstrates, Hawaii is also a symbol of human rights abuses committed by the U.S. government against Japanese Americans.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188268/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olivia Tasevski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When US President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 9066, he paved the way for the incarceration of Japanese Americans on the mainland and HawaiiOlivia Tasevski, Tutor in International Relations and History, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2028582023-04-20T15:06:01Z2023-04-20T15:06:01ZZimbabwe’s ruling party vilifies the opposition as American puppets. But the party itself had strong ties to the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521045/original/file-20230414-16-97marz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa addressing a rally in Bulawayo recently. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zinyange Auntony/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF), which has governed Zimbabwe since independence in 1980, is well known for denouncing the United States’ role as a superpower that polices the world. </p>
<p>In a 2007 address at the United Nations, then Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-zimbabwe-mugabe/mugabe-slams-bush-hypocrisy-on-human-rights-idUSN2627903020070926">assailed</a> his American counterpart, George W. Bush. Mugabe charged:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>his hands drip with innocent blood of many nationalities. He kills in Iraq. He kills in Afghanistan. And this is supposed to be our master on human rights? </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Confrontation with the US, a recurrent feature of Zimbabwe’s political history since <a href="https://roape.net/2020/01/17/one-who-preferred-death-to-imperialism/">the 1960s</a>, surged after Washington adopted a bipartisan <a href="https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/07/11/2019/post-mugabe-zimbabwe-retreats-western-outreach-embraces-africa">sanctions package</a> in 2001. The European Union also imposed sanctions. </p>
<p>US officials have <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1158">repeatedly stated</a> that the sanctions target specific individuals or entities that have abused human rights or undermined democracy. <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20200924-zimbabwe-leader-tells-un-that-sanctions-hurt-development">Zanu-PF has responded</a> by pointing to UN reporting which notes that the sanctions have weakened the country’s economy and impeded national development.</p>
<p>I am a historian of Zimbabwe’s liberation struggle. My <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Pan-Africanism-Versus-Partnership-Decolonisation-Rhodesian-ebook/dp/B0BSKNHMYH/ref=sr_1_2?qid=1681393772&refinements=p_n_publication_date%3A1250228011&s=books&sr=1-2">forthcoming book</a> focuses on its formative stages in the late 1950s and early 1960s. This was when Mugabe first became active in politics and the US got more involved in the politics of what was then Rhodesia, a British colony. In my view, the 21st century hostility obscures a nuanced historical relationship between the US and Zanu-PF.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/winky-d-is-being-targeted-by-police-in-zimbabwe-why-the-music-stars-voice-is-so-important-202246">Winky D is being targeted by police in Zimbabwe – why the music star's voice is so important</a>
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<p>At first, the fledgling liberation movement valued American support. Zanu-PF <a href="https://www.africabib.org/rec.php?RID=18593742X">broke away</a> from the Soviet-aligned Zimbabwe African People’s Union (Zapu) in August 1963. Zanu-PF was originally known as Zanu, but adopted the “PF” suffix <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/zanu-pf-wins-first-free-elections-zimbabwe">ahead of elections in 1980</a>.</p>
<p>This context is relevant now because Zanu-PF efforts to consolidate both domestic and pan-African support selectively overlook more compatible aspects of its historical relations with the US.</p>
<h2>Zanu-PF’s anti-American bluster</h2>
<p>Zanu-PF has exploited sanctions to its advantage.</p>
<p>Emmerson Mnangagwa, previously Mugabe’s deputy, <a href="https://www.sardc.net/en/southern-african-news-features/sadc-mobilizes-anti-sanctions-day-25-october/">came to power</a> in a factional coup in late 2017. He has successfully mobilised pan-African support against sanctions.</p>
<p>Since 2019, the Southern African Development Community and the African Union have observed 25 October as <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/10/26/zimbabwe-regime-sanctions-zanupf">“Anti-Sanctions Day”</a> in solidarity with the Zanu-PF leadership.</p>
<p>Zanu-PF’s <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2019/10/25/thousands-in-zimbabwe-denounce-evil-western-sanctions">anti-American rhetoric</a> is not only deployed to win friends abroad. It is also a prominent campaign tactic at home. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/president-mnangagwa-claimed-zimbabwe-was-open-for-business-whats-gone-wrong-154085">President Mnangagwa claimed Zimbabwe was open for business. What's gone wrong</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>With general elections expected <a href="https://www.eisa.org/calendar2023.php">in July</a> or August, Zanu-PF is following the strategy again. It’s discrediting its leading opponent, Nelson Chamisa of the Citizens Coalition for Change, as a <a href="https://twitter.com/TafadzwaMugwadi/status/1631150059122221056">“US pawn”</a>. </p>
<p>His predecessor, Morgan Tsvangirai, faced <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zimbabwe-election/mugabe-belittles-opponents-as-frog-and-puppet-idUSL2321227420080223">similar treatment</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man points ahead with his right index finger in front of banners bearing the acronym 'CCC'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521059/original/file-20230414-16-s56de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521059/original/file-20230414-16-s56de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521059/original/file-20230414-16-s56de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521059/original/file-20230414-16-s56de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521059/original/file-20230414-16-s56de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521059/original/file-20230414-16-s56de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521059/original/file-20230414-16-s56de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nelson Chamisa, leader of the opposition Citizens Coalition for Change party.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zinyange Auntony / AFP via Getty Images)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Zimbabwe’s partisan state media routinely employ such terms as <a href="https://www.herald.co.zw/us-president-exposes-puppets-in-zim/">“puppets”, “pawns” and “lackeys”</a> to describe Chamisa and his party. These jibes are intended to convince Zimbabwean voters that Chamisa would prioritise foreign interests.</p>
<p>The rhetoric conceals ZANU-PF’s own American ties.</p>
<h2>Zanu-PF’s American connections</h2>
<p>Historically, relations between the US and Zanu-PF have fluctuated. Mugabe formed a <a href="https://www.herald.co.zw/a-walk-down-memory-lane-with-andrew-young/">close bond</a> with Andrew Young, the US ambassador to the UN during <a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carters-african-legacy-peacemaker-negotiator-and-defender-of-rights-200744">Jimmy Carter’s presidency</a>. Carter’s government was the <a href="https://diplomacy.state.gov/encyclopedia/u-s-embassy-harare-zimbabwe/">first to open an embassy</a> in independent Zimbabwe. </p>
<p>Solid relations continued during the early years of the Reagan administration. Harare was one of the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1983/12/20/us-slashes-aid-to-zimbabwe-by-almost-half/e67886cf-9f52-4fde-beee-83ba1b40c3e0/">top three African recipients</a> of US aid in the early 1980s. </p>
<p>US vice-president <a href="https://www.upi.com/Archives/1982/11/18/Vice-President-George-Bush-arrived-today-for-talks-with/7630406443600/">George H.W. Bush travelled to Harare</a> in 1982. In 1997, first lady Hillary Clinton made a <a href="https://clintonwhitehouse6.archives.gov/1997/03/1997-03-11-first-lady-travels-in-africa-later-this-month.html">goodwill visit</a> to Zimbabwe.</p>
<p>Ties were even deeper in the early 1960s when the US government encouraged the party’s very establishment. Historian <a href="https://www.kent.edu/history/profile/timothy-scarnecchia">Timothy Scarnecchia</a>, who has mined records in the US national archives, has <a href="https://boydellandbrewer.com/9781580463638/the-urban-roots-of-democracy-and-political-violence-in-zimbabwe/">documented the ties</a> that Zanu forged with American officials 60 years ago. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/repression-and-dialogue-in-zimbabwe-twin-strategies-that-arent-working-122139">Repression and dialogue in Zimbabwe: twin strategies that aren't working</a>
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<p>The organisation’s core leadership in temporary exile in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania (then Tanganyika), regularly consulted with US embassy officials in that country. Its leading representatives, <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137543462_5">including Mugabe</a>, lobbied the US government for funding. (There is no evidence that the new party received any directly.) </p>
<p>Zanu’s first president, <a href="https://www.sithole.org/biography.php">Ndabaningi Sithole</a>, received theological education in the US in the late 1950s. Archival records show that on the eve of Zanu’s formation he met with State Department officials in Washington DC who connected him to private American funders. In another archived account of a meeting with the US ambassador in Tanganyika (now Tanzania) in July 1963, Leopold Takawira, subsequently Zanu’s first vice-president, relayed that Sithole regarded the US as his second home.</p>
<p>Herbert Chitepo, who became Zanu’s national chair, visited the US in July 1963 and also met with American diplomats. According to a record of their conversation in the US national archives, Chitepo expressed his desire to accept US funding and defied</p>
<blockquote>
<p>anyone to call him an American stooge.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The 11 July 1963 issue of Zimbabwe Today, a periodical produced by Zapu in Tanzania, declared that following Sithole’s return from the US,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the American dollar and its ugly imperialist head is clearly visible in the actions of Mr. Sithole. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Zanu-PF’s assaults on Chamisa and his party’s supposed American connections is a repackaging of the very attacks Mnangagwa’s party faced from Zapu when it was formed 60 years ago. </p>
<h2>Double standards</h2>
<p>Although it has not been well documented, the US provided critical support during Zanu’s founding in 1963. It also helped the party consolidate its authority following independence in 1980. Since the US government imposed sanctions on Zimbabwe in 2001, these ties have been overshadowed. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-zimbabwe-finally-ditch-a-history-of-violence-and-media-repression-99859">Can Zimbabwe finally ditch a history of violence and media repression?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>As elections approach in Zimbabwe, the role of the US looms large. Zanu-PF overlooks historical aspects of its own relations with the US as it seeks to undermine its domestic opposition and appeal to continental allies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202858/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brooks Marmon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Zanu-PF’s anti-American rhetoric is not only deployed to win friends abroad. As elections approach, it is also a prominent campaign tactic at home.Brooks Marmon, Post-doctoral Scholar, Mershon Center for International Security Studies, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2007442023-03-09T14:28:58Z2023-03-09T14:28:58ZJimmy Carter’s African legacy: peacemaker, negotiator and defender of rights<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512455/original/file-20230227-1191-gv4ueg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Carter's interest in southern Africa was crucial to keeping the peace.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When historians and pundits praise Jimmy Carter’s <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-american-studies/article/abs/nancy-mitchell-jimmy-carter-in-africa-race-and-the-cold-war-stanford-ca-stanford-university-press-2016-4500-pp-xiv-883-isbn-978-0-8047-9358-8/DB52A5925C6F10E199F93FB881AB03D9">achievements</a> as the US president and extol his exemplary post-presidential years, they mention the recognition of China, the <a href="https://billofrightsinstitute.org/e-lessons/the-panama-canal-treaties-jimmy-carter">Panama Canal Treaties</a> and the <a href="https://carterschool.gmu.edu/why-study-here/legacy-leadership/camp-david-hal-saunders-and-responsibility-peacemaking">Camp David Accords</a>. Almost no one mentions what Carter achieved in Africa during his presidency. This is a serious oversight. </p>
<p>When I interviewed President Carter in 2002, <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/extra/?id=25540&i=Excerpt%20from%20the%20Introduction.html">he told me</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I spent more effort and worry on Rhodesia than I did on the Middle East.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The archival record supports the former president’s claim. Reams of documents detail Carter’s sustained and deep focus during his presidency on ending white rule in Rhodesia, and helping to bring about the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/zimbabawean-independence-day">independence of Zimbabwe</a>.</p>
<p>There were several reasons for Carter’s focus on southern Africa. First, realpolitik. Southern Africa was the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/25798909?seq=4">hottest theatre</a> of the Cold War when Carter took office in January 1977. A year earlier, Fidel Castro had sent <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Conflicting-Missions-Havana-Washington-1959-1976/dp/0807854646">36,000 Cuban troops</a> to Angola to <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Conflicting-Missions-Havana-Washington-1959-1976/dp/0807854646">protect the leftist MPLA</a> from a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Conflicting-Missions-Havana-Washington-1959-1976/dp/0807854646">South African invasion</a> backed by the Gerald Ford administration. The <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Visions-Freedom-Washington-Pretoria-1976-1991/dp/1469628325">Cubans remained in Angola until 1991 </a>.</p>
<p>Mozambique was no longer governed by America’s NATO ally, Portugal, but instead by the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4185752">left-leaning Frelimo</a> . Apartheid South Africa – so recently a stable, pro-American outpost far from the Cold War – suddenly faced the prospect of being surrounded by hostile black-ruled states.</p>
<p>The unfolding events in southern Africa riveted Washington’s attention on Rhodesia, where the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Jimmy-Carter-Africa-International-History/dp/0804793859">insurgency against the white minority government</a> of <a href="https://www.mandela.ac.za/Leadership-and-Governance/Honorary-Doctorates/Ian-Smith-1979">Ian Smith</a> was escalating. One week after the Carter administration took office it assessed the crisis in Rhodesia: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>This situation contains the seeds of another Angola … If the breakdown of talks means intensified warfare, Soviet/Cuban influence is bound to increase.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The administration knew that if the war did not end, the Cuban troops might cross the continent to help the rebels.</p>
<h2>And then what?</h2>
<p>It was unthinkable that the Carter administration, with its <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/human-rights#:%7E:text=He%20intended%20to%20infuse%20a,the%20fate%20of%20freedom%20">stress on human rights</a>, would intervene in Rhodesia to support the racist government of Ian Smith. But, given the Cold War, it was equally unthinkable that it would stand aside passively enabling another Soviet-backed Cuban victory in Africa. Therefore, the administration’s first <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44376206">Presidential Review Memorandum</a> on southern Africa, written immediately after Carter took office, announced:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In terms of urgency, the Rhodesian problem is highest priority.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Carter administration assembled a <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=25540">high-powered negotiating team</a>, led by <a href="https://aysps.gsu.edu/andrew-young-biography/">UN Ambassador Andrew Young</a> and <a href="https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/short-history/vance">Secretary of State Cyrus Vance</a>, to coordinate with the British and hammer out a settlement. These negotiations, spearheaded by the Americans, led to the <a href="https://sas-space.sas.ac.uk/5847/5/1979_Lancaster_House_Agreement.pdf">Lancaster House talks</a> in Britain, and the free elections in 1980 and black majority rule in an independent in Zimbabwe. </p>
<p>There was another reason for Carter’s interest in southern Africa: race. Carter <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hour-Before-Daylight-Memories-Boyhood/dp/0743211995">grew up in the segregated South</a> of the 1920s and 1930s. As a child, he did not question the racist strictures of the <a href="https://www.ferris.edu/HTMLS/news/jimcrow/what.htm">Jim Crow South</a>, but as he matured, served in the US Navy and was elected governor of Georgia, his worldview evolved. </p>
<p>He appreciated how the <a href="https://www.loc.gov/collections/civil-rights-history-project/articles-and-essays/">civil rights movement</a> had helped liberate the US South from its regressive past, and he regretted that he had not been an active participant in the movement. When I asked Carter why he had expended so much effort on Rhodesia, part of his explanation was:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I felt a sense of responsibility and some degree of guilt that we had spent an entire century after the Civil War still persecuting blacks, and to me the situation in Africa was inseparable from the fact of deprivation or persecution or oppression of Black people in the South. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Parallels with the US South</h2>
<p>Carter’s belief that there were parallels between the freedom struggles in the US South and in southern Africa may have been naïve, but it was important. </p>
<p>Influenced by Andrew Young, who had been a <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/encyclopedia/young-andrew">close aide</a> to <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1964/king/biographical/">Martin Luther King </a>, Carter transcended the knee-jerk anticommunist reaction of previous American presidents to the members of the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/struggle-Zimbabwe-Chimurenga-War/dp/0949932000">Patriotic Front</a>, the loose alliance of insurgents fighting the regime of <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lifeinfocus/a-life-in-focus-ian-douglas-smith-last-white-prime-minister-rhodesia-zimbabwe-a8754971.html">Ian Smith</a>.</p>
<p>Young challenged the Manichaean tropes of the Cold War. <a href="https://stanfordpress.typepad.com/blog/2017/04/race-and-the-cold-war.html">He explained in 1977</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Communism has never been a threat to me … Racism has always been a threat – and that has been the enemy of all of my life. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Young helped Carter see the Patriotic Front, albeit leftist guerrillas supported by Cuba and the Soviet Union, as freedom fighters. Therefore, unlike the Gerald Ford administration which had <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Jimmy-Carter-Africa-International-History/dp/0804793859">shunned</a> the Front and tried to settle the conflict through negotiations with the white leaders of Rhodesia and South Africa, Carter considered the Front the key players. He brought them to the fore of the negotiations. This was extraordinarily rare in the annals of US diplomacy during the Cold War. </p>
<p>Carter has not received the credit his administration deserves for the Zimbabwe settlement. It was a success not only in moral terms, enabling free elections in an independent country. It also precluded a repetition of the Cuban intervention in Angola. It was Carter’s signal achievement in sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The late former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan (C) speaks as former US president Jimmy Carter and Graca Machel of Mozambique look on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alexander Joe/AFP via Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Angola and the Cold War reflexes</h2>
<p>Carter also improved US relations with the continent as a whole. He <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Jimmy-Carter-Africa-International-History/dp/0804793859">increased</a> trade, diplomatic contacts and, simply, treated Black Africa with respect.</p>
<p>During the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Jimmy-Carter-Africa-International-History/dp/0804793859">war in the Horn of Africa</a>, he resisted intense pressure to throw full US support behind the Somalis when the Somali government waged a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Jimmy-Carter-Africa-International-History/dp/0804793859">war of aggression</a> against leftist Ethiopia. His administration attempted valiantly to <a href="https://academic.oup.com/dh/article-abstract/34/5/853/490367">negotiate a settlement</a> in Namibia and condemned apartheid in South Africa. </p>
<p>But in Angola, as historian Piero Gleijeses’ superb <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Visions-Freedom-Washington-Pretoria-1976-1991/dp/1469628325">research</a> has shown, Carter reverted to Cold War reflexes. He asserted that the US would restore full relations with Angola only after the Cuban troops had departed. This, even though he knew that the Cubans were there by invitation of the Angolan government, and were essential to hold the South Africans at bay. Carter’s was the typical response of US governments to any perceived communist threat. But it serves to highlight – by contrast – how unusual was the administration’s policy of embracing the Patriotic Front in Zimbabwe. </p>
<p>For the next 40 years, Carter focused more on sub-Saharan Africa than on any other region of the world. The Carter Center’s almost total <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2023/02/23/1158358366/jimmy-carter-took-on-the-awful-guinea-worm-when-no-one-else-would-and-he-triumph">eradication of Guinea worm</a> has saved an estimated 80 million Africans from this devastating disease. Its election monitoring throughout the continent, and its conflict resolution programmes, have bolstered democracy. </p>
<p>Carter’s work in Africa, and especially in Zimbabwe, forms a significant and underappreciated part of his impressive legacy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200744/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nancy Mitchell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Carter’s work in Zimbabwe forms a significant and under appreciated part of his legacyNancy Mitchell, Professor of History, North Carolina State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2007452023-02-27T15:11:03Z2023-02-27T15:11:03ZJimmy Carter: the American president whose commitment to Africa went beyond his term<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512423/original/file-20230227-633-v0xzc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former American President Jimmy Carter. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Drew Angerer/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The office of former US president Jimmy Carter (98), who has been frail for some time, has <a href="https://cartercenter.org/news/pr/2023/statement-on-president-carters-health.html">announced</a> that he will no longer seek hospital treatment for his ailments. He has instead opted for hospice care at his modest home in the rural farming village of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/02/20/plains-georgia-jimmy-carter">Plains, Georgia</a>, close to where he was born.</p>
<p>His opposition to racism and his support for human rights are legendary, made more compelling by his life-long commitment to live among rural Georgians where segregation was severe and discrimination remains prevalent today. This enduring commitment to non-racialism and human rights at home also shaped his interest and engagement in Africa.</p>
<p>We discussed African affairs often during the nine years (2006-2015) when I directed the Carter Centre <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/peace/index.html">Peace Programmes</a>. My most frequent trips to Africa for the centre were to lead election observation missions, in which he was keenly interested.</p>
<p>His views on Africa can be assessed from three angles:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Africa policies pursued during his presidency, 1977-1981</p></li>
<li><p>Programmes in Africa with the Carter Centre while he was its leader, 1982-2015 </p></li>
<li><p>His moral determination to reckon with racism.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Africa policies</h2>
<p>In her book <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Jimmy-Carter-Africa-International-History/dp/0804793859">Jimmy Carter in Africa: Race and the Cold War</a> Nancy Mitchell, a professor of history at North Carolina State University, analyses in 900 pages how Carter’s leadership and core values, discussed in the third section, influenced his approach to southern African. But Michell reminds us that in the 1970s Africa was the hottest theatre of the Cold War. </p>
<p>The book’s subtitle, however, highlights a significant shift of emphasis skilfully effected by Carter and key to his success in helping liberate Rhodesia (today Zimbabwe) by treating all sides, even “Communists”, with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/25/opinion/from-carter-to-mtg-what-a-peach-state-plummet.html%5D(https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/25/opinion/from-carter-to-mtg-what-a-peach-state-plummet.html">respect</a>. Carter’s behind-the-scenes role in supporting the 1979 <a href="https://sas-space.sas.ac.uk/5847/5/1979_Lancaster_House_Agreement.pdf">Lancaster House agreement</a>, which led to Zimbabwean independence, was among his greatest diplomatic achievements.</p>
<p>Many years later, I was told by a close advisor to longtime Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe that, had Carter won a second term, he said he would work to raise US funds to facilitate a key element of the peace accord, land reform based on ‘willing seller, willing buyer’.</p>
<p>The election of Republican Ronald Reagan in 1980, however, resulted in a very different US policy of “<a href="https://michiganintheworld.history.lsa.umich.edu/antiapartheid/exhibits/show/exhibit/students-take-campus--1984-198/national-context--president-re">constructive engagement</a>” in southern Africa. It was widely perceived among anti-aparthed groups in the US and presumably in Africa as helping to ease the pressure of the Carter era against White minority rule. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Power-Lines-Years-Africas-Borders/dp/0792241010">Southern Africa</a> remained Carter’s top priority, as Mitchell notes: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Given their druthers, the Africa specialists in the Carter administration would have devoted their full attention to resolving the problems of Rhodesia, Namibia and South Africa. (p. 253)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Carter told me several times that he spent more time pursuing peace in southern Africa than he did on the Middle East, and having read now declassifed files in the Centre library, I agree. </p>
<h2>Post-presidency</h2>
<p>Africa has claimed the lion’s share of resources and energy since President and Mrs Rosalynn Carter founded their <a href="https://cartercenter.org">centre</a> in partnership with Emory University 41 years ago, to work in poor nations, where colonialism and racism, had curtailed growth, opportunity and the sense of shared humanity. In 2015, their grandson Jason Carter, who lived in South Africa as a Peace Corps volunteer and speaks one of the country’s 11 official languages, isiZulu, was elected chair of the centre.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An elderly man and a woman attach siding to the front of a Habitat for Humanity home." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512424/original/file-20230227-572-110fn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512424/original/file-20230227-572-110fn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512424/original/file-20230227-572-110fn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512424/original/file-20230227-572-110fn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512424/original/file-20230227-572-110fn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512424/original/file-20230227-572-110fn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512424/original/file-20230227-572-110fn1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former US president Jimmy Carter and his wife Rosalynn Carter attach siding to the front of a Habitat for Humanity home in 2003 in LaGrange, Georgia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik S. Lesser/Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Africa remains the region of the <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/about/index.html">Carter Centre</a>’s biggest and most enduring commitments, under its motivating slogan “Waging Peace, Fighting Disease, Building Hope”. According to the <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/news/annual_reports/annual-report-21.pdf">2021 financial report</a>, the centre’s annual fundraising campaign raises about US$300 million annually. It now operates with a core staff in Atlanta of about 230 and field staff, mostly in Africa, of some 3,100. The centre also has an endowment fund in excess of US$1 billion.</p>
<p>The Carter Centre’s most significant contributions to development have been in the field of <a href="https://cartercenter.org/health/index.html">African public health</a>, to end, mitigate and prevent six diseases, among them malaria and river blindness. </p>
<p><a href="https://cartercenter.org/peace/democracy/index.html">Democracy</a> is the biggest of the peace programmes; election observation and support claim the greatest amount of resources and personnel. </p>
<h2>Carter’s moral compass</h2>
<p>Motivations for Carter’s interest in Africa are deeply personal. A brief address at a staff celebration of his <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/editorials_speeches/jimmy-carter-90th-birthday-remarks.html">90th birthday</a> revealed his own reckoning with race at home. This, I believe, may have driven his long involvement in Africa.</p>
<p>Having grown up in tightly segregated rural Georgia, he recalled that his family was:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>completely surrounded by African-American children, with whom I played and worked in the fields and hunted and fished in the woods. And I got to know, eventually and slowly, the difference between a privileged group and the ones around us who were not permitted to vote, or to serve on a jury, or to go to a decent school.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He added:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think this, more than anything else, has shaped my life — partially because of the guilt I still feel in not having recognised that disparity between us early on. I took it for granted that if the Supreme Court and the Congress and the American Bar Association and the universities and the churches said it was OK for white people to be superior, that was OK with God. And I think that that experience has been the most overwhelming factor in shaping my life …</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Carter, as I discovered, can be a hard man to work for. He holds himself and those around him to extremely high moral and ethical standards. As president, he kept the peace, told the truth, and obeyed the law. Carter also promised never to profit from the presidency – a pledge, from my observation, that he has scrupulously honoured.</p>
<p>His record should remind all democrats, including those in Africa, to hold leaders accountable to similar standards. For as he declared during his <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2002/carter/lecture/">2002 Nobel Peace lecture</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The bond of our common humanity is stronger than the divisiveness of our fears and prejudices. God gives us the capacity for choice.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200745/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John J Stremlau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The motivations for Carter’s interest in Africa are deeply personal. His record should remind all democrats, including those in Africa, to hold leaders accountable to high ethical standards.John J Stremlau, Honorary Professor of International Relations, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2004122023-02-27T13:24:45Z2023-02-27T13:24:45ZHow Jimmy Carter integrated his evangelical Christian faith into his political work, despite mockery and misunderstanding<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512065/original/file-20230223-28-k80qo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C24%2C5406%2C3612&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Jimmy Carter has decided to spend his remaining time at home with his family and receive hospice care.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/JimmyCarterHospiceExplainer/3f1f640bf1fd4ec38d84c98340fdb6f1/photo?Query=jimmy%20carter%202023&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=29&currentItemNo=18">AP Photo/John Bazemore, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“I am a farmer, an engineer, a businessman, a planner, a scientist, a governor, and a Christian,” Jimmy Carter said while introducing himself to national political reporters when <a href="http://www.4president.org/speeches/carter1976announcement.htm">he announced his campaign to be the 39th president</a> of the United States in December 1974.</p>
<p>As journalists and historians consider Carter’s legacy, this prelude to Carter’s campaign offers insight into how he wanted to be known and how he might like to be remembered.</p>
<p>After studying Carter’s presidential campaign, presidency and post-presidency for years, which included examining more than 25,000 archival documents, media sources, oral histories and interviews, I wrote “<a href="https://lsupress.org/books/detail/jimmy-carter-marathon-media/">Jimmy Carter and the Birth of the Marathon Media Campaign</a>.” Along the way, I had the opportunity to interview former President Carter in October 2014, when we discussed his life, his presidency and his legacy. </p>
<p>Based upon this experience, one observation is certain – Carter was a man of faith committed to a vision of the nation that aligned with his views of Jesus’ teachings. </p>
<h2>A campaign cloaked in a message of love and justice</h2>
<p>In the fall of 1975, after his initial announcement failed to elicit much national attention for his candidacy, the still relatively unknown Georgia governor published the campaign biography, “<a href="https://www.uapress.com/product/why-not-the-best/">Why Not the Best?</a>”</p>
<p>Within the book, he told the story of his wholesome childhood on his family’s peanut farm in Archery, Georgia, and of achieving his childhood dream through his appointment to the Naval Academy in 1943. </p>
<p>He wrote of his dedication to his family as a loyal son, husband and father and his duty-bound career transition to manage his family-owned peanut farm, warehouse and store after his father <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2023/02/20/jimmy-carter-nuclear-reactor-navy/">Earl Carter’s premature death</a> from pancreatic cancer in 1953. He also shared his lifelong commitment to community and public service. </p>
<p>Moreover, he offered himself as a public servant who could bridge the chasm between the American people and the government that had emerged after the revelations of presidential corruption amid Vietnam and Watergate. </p>
<p>“Our government can and must represent the best and the highest ideals of those of us who voluntarily submit to its authority. In our third century, we must meet these simple, but crucial standards,” he wrote in the <a href="https://www.uapress.com/product/why-not-the-best/">campaign biography</a>. </p>
<p>Though Carter cloaked his campaign in Jesus’ teachings about love and justice, most national reporters did not give Carter’s faith much attention until he became the Democratic Party’s front-runner in advance of the North Carolina primary in 1976.</p>
<h2>‘Lust in my heart’</h2>
<p>When national reporters finally turned their attention to his faith, what campaign director Hamilton Jordan referred to as Carter’s “<a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Jimmy_Carter_in_Search_of_the_Great_Whit.html?id=YEGPAAAAIAAJ">weirdo factor</a>,” the <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=gHNAAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA967&lpg=PA967&dq=jimmy+carter">evangelical politician acknowledged</a> that he had “spent more time on my knees in the four years I was governor … than I did in all the rest of my life.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512070/original/file-20230223-28-g60o0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A number of people gather around a table, taking notes, as the person at the head of the table speaks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512070/original/file-20230223-28-g60o0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512070/original/file-20230223-28-g60o0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512070/original/file-20230223-28-g60o0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512070/original/file-20230223-28-g60o0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512070/original/file-20230223-28-g60o0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512070/original/file-20230223-28-g60o0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512070/original/file-20230223-28-g60o0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jimmy Carter meets with news editors at the White House on April 15, 1977.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PresidentJimmyCarter/088bda28886f4ec894452646737ff8d7/photo?Query=jimmy%20carter%20press&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=2316&currentItemNo=37">AP Photo/Charles Bennett</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Carter continued to share his understanding of the gospel with journalists and their audiences in a plain-spoken manner, even though it was not always advantageous to his political fortunes. For instance, after continued probes about his faith that summer from Playboy Magazine correspondent Robert Scheer, <a href="https://lsupress.org/books/detail/jimmy-carter-marathon-media/">Carter launched into a sermon on pride, lust and lying</a> that would haunt him later. </p>
<p>“I try not to commit a deliberate sin. I recognize that I’m going to do it anyhow, because I’m human and I’m tempted … I’ve looked on a lot of women with lust,” Carter, believing he was off the record, said in attempting to clarify his religious views. “<a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Playboy_Interview.html?id=EXNmAAAAMAAJ%22%22">I’ve committed adultery in my heart many times</a>.” </p>
<p>Carter referred to <a href="https://www.kingjamesbibleonline.org/Matthew-5-28/">Matthew 5:28</a>, the biblical passage in which Jesus shares this interpretation of the Seventh Commandment, with the words: “But I say unto you, That whosoever looketh on a woman to lust after her hath committed adultery with her already in his heart.”</p>
<p>Uninterrupted, Carter continued his salty explanation of the verse: “Christ says don’t consider yourself better than someone else because one guy screws a whole bunch of women while the other guy is loyal to his wife.”</p>
<p>“We have heard Jesus’ words all our lives ever since we were 3, 4 years old, and we knew what it meant,” Carter later explained to me. “But, obviously, the general public, when I said, ‘lust in my heart,’ that was a top headline, it looked like I was – like I spent my time trying to seduce other women. Rosa(lynn) knew that wasn’t true.” </p>
<p>Though Carter’s comments were “<a href="https://lsupress.org/books/detail/jimmy-carter-marathon-media/">on solid theological ground</a>,” according to many people of faith, up-and-coming leaders of the religious right, such as televangelist Jerry Falwell, castigated Carter. And, in the end, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=UXuKo8zOdD0C&printsec=copyright#v=onepage&q&f=false">many folks agreed</a> with well-regarded columnist Mary McGrory – the interview “should have been an off-the-record conversation with God, not one taped by Playboy.”</p>
<h2>Crisis of confidence</h2>
<p>Despite the erosion of support among the emerging religious right after the Playboy gaffe, Carter remained steadfast in his commitment to his Christian values and a faith-inspired vision for the nation that advanced human rights at home and abroad. He called it a “<a href="https://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/assets/documents/speeches/inaugadd.phtml">new beginning</a>.” </p>
<p>Carter beseeched his American brethren to chart a new course during his inaugural address in January 1977: “Our commitment to human rights must be absolute, our laws fair, our natural beauty preserved; the powerful must not persecute the weak, and human dignity must be enhanced.” </p>
<p>Carter had achieved what Time magazine hailed as one of the most astonishing “<a href="http://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19770103,00.html">political miracles</a>” in the nation’s history because of his rapid ascension from a virtual unknown politician to the presidency. But many citizens, suffering from an emerging <a href="https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/jimmycartercrisisofconfidence.htm">crisis of confidence</a> in the American dream and faith in its institutions and leaders, had already begun to tune out Carter’s political sermons about the looming energy crisis, stagflation and international conflicts.</p>
<p>Moreover, in the coming years, they would become indignant toward the man who had condemned the corruption of his predecessors and promised to never tell a lie on the campaign trail, yet remained loyal to one of his oldest advisers, the Office of Management and Budget Director Bert Lance, who was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1977/08/11/archives/lancegate.html">accused of unethical banking practices</a>. </p>
<h2>Long-lasting commitment to public service</h2>
<p>In the end, Carter stood accused of failing to live up to his campaign promises from the vantage point of many American citizens amid domestic crises and foreign conflicts.</p>
<p>Amid news coverage of these events and his dwindling public support, Carter lost his reelection campaign, and his administration was hailed by many journalists, political insiders and average Americans alike as a “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1983/10/17/white-house-cooling-to-the-idea-of-running-against-mondale/4e7bdbe7-ef4c-4eae-8e6d-e5186507c0ff/">failed presidency</a>.” </p>
<p>Nevertheless, Carter remained committed to his religious convictions. “I have spoken many times of love, but love must be aggressively translated into simple justice,” he invoked his audience when he <a href="https://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/assets/documents/speeches/acceptance_speech.pdf">accepted the Democratic nomination</a> in July 1976. </p>
<p>For the remainder of his life, he attempted to model the translation of Jesus’ love into action through his life of public service. His post-presidential commitments involved <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/">The Carter Center’s</a> initiatives of fighting disease and seeking international peace and his private efforts of building homes for <a href="https://www.habitat.org/volunteer/build-events/carter-work-project">Habitat for Humanity</a> and teaching <a href="https://jimmycarter.info/plan-your-visit/president-carters-teaching-schedule-marantha-baptist-church/">Sunday school</a>. </p>
<p>In the end, Carter will leave this world with <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2015/08/20/politics/jimmy-carter-iran-hostages/index.html">only one acknowledged regret</a>: “I wish I’d sent one more helicopter to get the hostages and we would have rescued them and I would have been re-elected,” he said referring to the April 1980 military rescue attempt of the 53 U.S. hostages <a href="https://prologue.blogs.archives.gov/2021/11/29/the-iran-hostage-crisis/">held by Iranian revolutionaries</a>. </p>
<p>In Carter’s final days, his words from his presidential <a href="https://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/assets/documents/speeches/farewell.phtml">farewell address</a>, which remain true today, are worth remembering:</p>
<p>“The battle for human rights – at home and abroad – is far from over. … If we are to serve as a beacon for human rights, we must continue to perfect here at home the rights and values which we espouse around the world: A decent education for our children, adequate medical care for all Americans, an end to discrimination against minorities and women, a job for all those able to work, and freedom from injustice and religious intolerance.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200412/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lori Amber Roessner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A media scholar who studied Carter and interviewed him explains how he attempted to translate Jesus’ teachings into action through his life of public service.Lori Amber Roessner, Professor in the School of Journalism and Electronic Media, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2002402023-02-24T13:12:56Z2023-02-24T13:12:56ZI assisted Carter’s work encouraging democracy – and saw how his experience, persistence and engineer’s mindset helped build a freer Latin America over decades<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511514/original/file-20230221-28-xfcklt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C2048%2C1272&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jimmy Carter answered reporters' election-monitoring questions in Caracas, Venezuela, May 29, 2004. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-us-president-jimmy-carter-answers-questions-during-a-news-photo/481972699?adppopup=true">Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When former President Jimmy Carter and his wife Rosalynn Carter founded the nonprofit <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/">Carter Center</a> in 1982, one of their goals was to help Latin American countries – many of which were emerging from decades of military dictatorship – transition to democracies.</p>
<p>Already a hero to many in the region for promoting human rights and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/pmextra/dec99/14/panama.htm">giving up U.S. control of the Panama Canal</a> during his presidency, Carter pioneered the center’s international election monitoring and conflict mediation with the work he did in Latin America.</p>
<p>I was on staff of The Carter Center from 1987 to 2015, first as a senior adviser and then as <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/current_qa/jennifer_mccoy_aug2005.html">director of its Americas Program</a>. In those roles, I worked closely with him, often accompanying the former president on trips to Latin America, where he tried to strengthen democracies and achieve peace.</p>
<p>I saw a man with great determination and self-discipline, driven by his faith and confidence that he could make a difference. He was always willing to take risks to tackle seemingly intractable problems.</p>
<p>The Jimmy Carter I remember was results-oriented rather than process-driven. He brought an engineer’s mind to every problem and was ready with possible solutions. He could be stubborn. But he was always willing to make principled decisions, even if they cost him politically.</p>
<p>For example, when – as president in 1977 – he signed the <a href="https://billofrightsinstitute.org/e-lessons/the-panama-canal-treaties-jimmy-carter">Panama Canal Treaties</a> to turn over control of the canal to Panama by 1999, he was heavily criticized by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1977/08/18/house-opponents-mount-attack-on-panama-treaties/bd42bdad-62e6-4b82-a737-b52bc3845bdf/">many members of Congress</a>. But with the treaties, Carter ended an arrangement that, from 1903, had allowed the U.S. to control the canal and was viewed as colonialism by many Latin Americans.</p>
<p>Since taking over the canal, Panama <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/an-expanded-panama-canal-opens-for-giant-ships/2016/06/26/11a93574-37d1-11e6-af02-1df55f0c77ff_story.html">has expanded its capacity</a>. </p>
<h2>Democracy first</h2>
<p>Carter always believed that negotiation was more fruitful than force. As president, he leaned into this philosophy with the <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2151620">Israeli-Egyptian peace accords</a> and did the same thing to <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/166260">help Haiti reestablish democracy</a> as leader of The Carter Center.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511516/original/file-20230221-28-ixe603.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A gray-haired white man wearing a short-sleeved white shirt shakes the hand of a Black man, who is wearing glasses and a short-sleeved white shirt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511516/original/file-20230221-28-ixe603.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511516/original/file-20230221-28-ixe603.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511516/original/file-20230221-28-ixe603.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511516/original/file-20230221-28-ixe603.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511516/original/file-20230221-28-ixe603.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511516/original/file-20230221-28-ixe603.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511516/original/file-20230221-28-ixe603.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Jimmy Carter greets Haitian presidential candidate Jean-Bertrand Aristide on the eve of the Haitian presidential elections in 1990. Carter led an international team of observers that monitored the election process.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-us-president-jimmy-carter-greets-haitian-news-photo/481997355?phrase=jimmy%20carter%20in%20haiti&adppopup=true">Thony Belizaire/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1994, the U.S. was set to invade Haiti on a <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1993-2000/haiti">United Nations-approved mission</a> to reinstall the country’s first democratically elected president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide. Carter had monitored voting there in 1990, when Haitians elected Aristide. The Haitian leader was ousted in a military coup soon after, though.</p>
<p>When Carter informed President Bill Clinton that Haitian military general <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/documents/doc218.html">Raoul Cedras had asked for Carter’s help</a> in mediating the crisis and avoiding a U.S. invasion, Clinton allowed for a last-ditch diplomatic effort to seek a solution.</p>
<p>Carter led a team, including former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Powell, to Haiti on a very short timeline <a href="https://greensboro.com/carter-hailed-for-peace-intervention/article_77ed2622-c529-554b-b352-4d814b8ea07c.html">to negotiate a peaceful end</a> to the situation. With the U.S. forces already en route, the men managed to persuade the generals to accept amnesty and exile to avoid a potentially deadly U.S. invasion. </p>
<h2>The Carter art of mediation</h2>
<p>In my view, Carter’s genius as a mediator is his belief that there is some innate goodness in every person, no matter the harm they may perpetrate. He strove to develop a connection with even the most detestable dictators because he knew their decisions could change the future of a society. Once he had a relationship with those leaders, he presented them with the hard choices they needed to make. And he always kept his compass. He focused on the well-being of the people in the countries he was helping, not his personal successes or failures.</p>
<p>His approach opened him to criticism that he <a href="https://archive.seattletimes.com/archive/?date=19940926&slug=1932656">cozied up to dictators</a>. But, to me, he just exercised realism and persistence. </p>
<p>The Sandinista revolutionary government of Nicaragua, led by Daniel Ortega, came to power during the Carter presidency, when a broad coalition overthrew the dictator Anastasio Somoza. </p>
<p>The Reagan administration responded to Ortega’s Sandinista government by imposing an <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/3993096">economic embargo and supporting a counterinsurgency</a> from rebel forces known as the Contras. President Ortega needed help to end that conflict and believed that he could gain international legitimacy and pressure the U.S. to change its policy if he held internationally monitored elections. So, Ortega invited The Carter Center, the U.N. and the Organization of American States to mount an <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/documents/1153.pdf">unprecedented election-monitoring mission</a> that ended up terminating the Sandinista revolution.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511519/original/file-20230221-16-wj9092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="One man, on the left, stands leaning over a table as he speaks with a man, center, a woman and man on the right, who are also standing and leaning over the table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511519/original/file-20230221-16-wj9092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511519/original/file-20230221-16-wj9092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511519/original/file-20230221-16-wj9092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511519/original/file-20230221-16-wj9092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511519/original/file-20230221-16-wj9092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511519/original/file-20230221-16-wj9092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511519/original/file-20230221-16-wj9092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Former President Jimmy Carter and Jennifer Lynn McCoy, to his left, speak with members of the signature’s checking board, May 29, 2004, in Caracas. Carter served as an observer as Venezuelans sought a referendum to recall President Hugo Chavez.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-us-president-jimmy-carter-speaks-with-members-of-the-news-photo/50909679?adppopup=true">Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>I was The Carter Center’s field representative in Managua at the time. The former president had developed his relationship with Ortega over the course of five trips to Nicaragua during the election campaign in 1989 to 1990, mediating disputes along the way. But election night was the most important moment. The initial vote count reports mysteriously stopped, and around midnight Carter went to see Ortega, along with the U.N. and OAS representatives. Carter told him that our data indicated the Sandinista-backed candidate had lost and that Ortega should acknowledge the loss and take credit for the democratic elections and everything the Sandinista revolution had accomplished.</p>
<p>Ortega acceded and the next day we accompanied him as he visited <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=k8hWsuZNb-YC&oi=fnd&pg=PP13&dq=violeta+chamorro+president&ots=_2eCRJqBxb&sig=QWqlOs-d8UVF2__KtvdwN0bXrXM#v=onepage&q=violeta%20chamorro%20president&f=false">President-elect Violeta Chamorro’s house</a> to congratulate her on her victory.</p>
<h2>He was persistent</h2>
<p>But Carter didn’t stop there, knowing the transition would be rocky. He gathered the two sides together in my little house in Managua and, sitting on rocking chairs on the patio, he negotiated a three-point agreement to frame the transition’s most difficult points – confiscated property and land reform, the integrity of the security forces and demobilization of the Contras. </p>
<p>Another time Carter’s persistence paid off was <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/documents/doc2023.html">in Venezuela</a>. That country’s democracy became unmoored with plummeting oil prices and hyperinflation in the 1990s, and The Carter Center was <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1998-12-15-1998349030-story.html">invited to monitor the 1998 elections</a>, which populist outsider <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Venezuela/The-Hugo-Chavez-presidency">Hugo Chávez</a> won.</p>
<p>After a failed military coup attempted to oust him in 2002, a shaken Chávez asked Carter to mediate between him and his political opposition. We partnered with the U.N. and OAS to form a tripartite mediating group – the OAS secretary general, trusted by the opposition; Carter, trusted by Chávez; and the U.N. as a neutral party providing background support.</p>
<p>Although the opposition was initially skeptical of Carter, given that he was invited by Chávez, it came to value Carter’s entree with Chávez and held high expectations he could hold Chávez to any commitments.</p>
<p>When an eventual agreement led to a recall referendum petition process, Carter forcefully pushed a stalling Chávez and his team to acknowledge that the opposition had gathered sufficient signatures to hold the referendum to decide whether to end Chávez’s term early.</p>
<p>But when the vote finally happened in August 2004, Chávez had managed to <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/177518">turn the tide in his favor</a> in the opinion polls by spending on social programs. He won the vote decisively. The opposition alleged the vote count was fraudulent, while the <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/documents/doc2023.html">OAS and The Carter Center audits of the count did not detect fraud</a>. I received many messages from irate Venezuelans blaming Carter and me for ignoring fraud and allowing Chávez to continue in power in Venezuela. </p>
<p>I learned then what a thick skin a public figure must have to withstand the fury of severely disappointed people.</p>
<p>I have always admired Carter for the countless controversial decisions he made over the years. And I believe he will be remembered for his vision of a free and peaceful world and his willingness to tackle seemingly insurmountable problems with high risk of failure.</p>
<p>His interventions at key moments helped save lives – and encouraged Latin American democracy, at least for a time. And his center’s ongoing, lower-profile programs that promote citizens’ <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/peace/ati/index.html">rights to information</a>, <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/peace/democracy/index.html">election integrity</a>, <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/health/index.html">mental and public health</a> and media freedom have made life better for people in many countries in the hemisphere.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511515/original/file-20230221-16-cc5l3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A suited, smiling gray-haired man walks on stage, with his left hand raised high, as he waves to the audience before him. Behind him, a large video screen captures his actions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511515/original/file-20230221-16-cc5l3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511515/original/file-20230221-16-cc5l3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=967&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511515/original/file-20230221-16-cc5l3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=967&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511515/original/file-20230221-16-cc5l3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=967&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511515/original/file-20230221-16-cc5l3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1215&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511515/original/file-20230221-16-cc5l3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1215&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511515/original/file-20230221-16-cc5l3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1215&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Former President Jimmy Carter takes the stage during the Democratic National Convention in 2008.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-u-s-president-jimmy-carter-walks-on-stage-during-day-news-photo/82547453?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200240/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Lynn McCoy is professor of political science at Georgia State University and a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She was Associate Director and Senior Associate from 1987-1998 and Director of the Carter Center's Americas Program from 1998-2015.</span></em></p>A former staffer with The Carter Center saw how Jimmy Carter’s efforts to bring democracy to Latin America improved conditions, prevented bloodshed and saved lives.Jennifer Lynn McCoy, Professor of Political Science, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1957052022-12-19T19:01:00Z2022-12-19T19:01:00Z50 years after Gough Whitlam established diplomatic relations with China, what has changed?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501678/original/file-20221218-12-1qlveq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Archives of Australia</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the annals of Australian foreign policy, it is arguable that no moment in history has been as significant as <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/release/transcript-3119">December 21 1972</a>. With the possible exception of the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/anzus">ANZUS Treaty of 1951</a>, no other document matches the formal agreement establishing full diplomatic relations between Australia and China 50 years ago this week.</p>
<p>In the maelstrom of events in the meantime, it is easy to forget where we were in 1972, and where we are now in relation to the emerging dominant power in our region.</p>
<p>History is important to better comprehend the present.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wong-to-visit-beijing-as-strategic-dialogue-restarts-in-new-breakthrough-in-australia-china-relations-196799">Wong to visit Beijing as 'strategic dialogue' restarts in new breakthrough in Australia-China relations</a>
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<h2>Whitlam opens the door</h2>
<p>In July 1971, Australia’s then opposition leader, Gough Whitlam, effectively rolled the dice politically <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/whitlam-s-trip-to-china-started-as-an-adventure-and-ended-with-a-coup-20210624-p5841r">by going to China</a>. The trip was ostensibly to discuss trade. In reality the purpose was to lay the ground for full diplomatic recognition should he become prime minister after the 1972 election.</p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/50-years-ago-today-gough-whitlam-was-elected-there-are-some-lessons-for-albanese-in-what-came-next-195649">50 years ago today, Gough Whitlam was elected. There are some lessons for Albanese in what came next</a>
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<p>Whitlam took a calculated political risk in an environment in which a perceived China “threat” remained a useful wedge in the conservative political arsenal.</p>
<p>The Whitlam visit could hardly have been more propitious. No sooner had he left China and discussions with Premier Zhou Enlai than it was revealed that Henry Kissinger, then national security adviser to US President Richard Nixon, had paid a <a href="https://china.usc.edu/revisiting-kissingers-secret-trip-beijing">secret visit</a> to China to negotiate the terms for <a href="https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d203">Nixon’s mission</a> to Beijing and Shanghai the following year.</p>
<p>Before the Kissinger visit became public knowledge, then Prime Minister William McMahon <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/whitlam-in-china/">claimed Whitlam</a> had been played “as a fisherman plays a trout” by Zhou. As it turned out, McMahon had hooked himself. Whitlam was well on the way to becoming Australia’s 21st prime minister, if he was not destined for that outcome anyway.</p>
<p>Then, as now, China played an outsize role in Australian domestic politics.</p>
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<h2>Establishing diplomatic relations</h2>
<p>This brings us to a document of great significance in the country’s diplomatic history.</p>
<p>On December 21 1972, envoys to Paris of Australia and China initialled the <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/release/transcript-3119">Joint Communique</a> of the Australian Government and the Government of the People’s Republic of China Concerning the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between Australia and China.</p>
<p>The document’s title was portentous, its implications momentous.</p>
<p>After 23 years, from the moment Mao Zedong had, on October 1 1949, proclaimed the People’s Republic from the Gate of Heavenly Peace overlooking Tiananmen Square, Canberra ended the fiction the Kuomintang regime on Taiwan represented all of China.</p>
<p>The Labor government was elected on December 2. Whitlam and his deputy, Lance Barnard, governed as a duumvirate at first until a full ministry was sworn in. Formalising relations with China was high on the Whitlam-Barnard agenda.</p>
<p>What is striking, and sometimes overlooked, in the December 21 document is the extent to which the formula for dealing with the vexed Taiwan issue differed little from other such agreements with China entered into by comparable countries.</p>
<p>Canada had established full diplomatic relations on similar terms under the Pierre Trudeau Liberal government in 1970. The United Kingdom, Germany and Japan all did so in 1972. France and China had exchanged ambassadors in 1964.</p>
<p>In other words, Australia was aligned with its Western friends.</p>
<p>The key words in the December 21 communique as they relate to Taiwan are these:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Australian Government recognises the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China, acknowledges the position of the Chinese Government that Taiwan is a province of the People’s Republic of China […].</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In President Jimmy Carter’s <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/china-policy">announcement of diplomatic relations</a> with China on December 15 1978, Washington settled on a simpler formula that amounted to the same thing in one important respect. Both the Australian and American communiques “acknowledge” China’s claim in relation to Taiwan.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Government of the United States acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In Documents on Australian Foreign Policy: Australia and Recognition of the People’s Republic of China, 1949-1972, <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-refused-to-endorse-chinas-claim-to-taiwan-in-1972-because-it-foresaw-a-time-like-this/">Australia had argued</a> hard for the neutral word “acknowledges”, as opposed to Beijing’s demand that the definite “recognises” be used.</p>
<p>In the end Australia prevailed, after giving ground on its preferred option of “takes note” of China’s position on Taiwan.</p>
<p>In Chinese translation, “acknowledges” is less neutral than it is in English and is closer in meaning to “recognises”. Such are the vagaries of diplomatic-speak.</p>
<p>An interesting sidelight to the Whitlam visit to China in 1971 is that in 1954, as the new member for Werriwa, <a href="https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/julie-bishop/speech/condolence-speech-passing-eg-whitlam-acqc">he had called for</a> recognition of China in his first speech.</p>
<p>As Stephen Fitzgerald, who accompanied Whitlam on his initial foray to China and later became Australia’s first ambassador the China, <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/whitlam-s-trip-to-china-started-as-an-adventure-and-ended-with-a-coup-20210624-p5841r">put it</a> in The Australian Financial Review:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>He believed we must accept that China is a permanent and significant part of the international landscape, whatever its government or what we think of it […]</p>
</blockquote>
<p>All these years later, that seems like a reasonable proposition.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501744/original/file-20221219-14-9qbuz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501744/original/file-20221219-14-9qbuz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501744/original/file-20221219-14-9qbuz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501744/original/file-20221219-14-9qbuz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501744/original/file-20221219-14-9qbuz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501744/original/file-20221219-14-9qbuz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501744/original/file-20221219-14-9qbuz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Jimmy Carter, Richard Nixon and Deng Xiaoping at a state dinner in 1979.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/china-policy">Jimmy Carter Library/Office of the Historian</a></span>
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<h2>An evolving relationship</h2>
<p>Viewed from the vantage point of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, what is most striking is how far and fast the relationship has evolved since 1972.</p>
<p>This is to the point where history has found it difficult to keep up. No-one – not Whitlam, nor Mao, nor Zhou, and certainly not the rest of the world – could have foreseen what would happen in the meantime.</p>
<p>In 1972, China’s <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/gdp-gross-domestic-product">GDP stood at US$113.69 billion</a>. Per capita, GDP was US$132. A vast segment of mainly rural-dwelling Chinese lived in poverty. China’s economy then was less the size of Italy’s, and a fraction that of the US. </p>
<p>Australian trade with China, mostly wheat, totalled about US$100 million. In other words, it was negligible.</p>
<p>A half century later, China’s economy is the world’s second largest. GDP in 2021 was US$17.7 trillion compared with the United States’ US$23 trillion. What is most remarkable, however, is the stratospheric growth in per capita GDP – from US$132 in 1972 to US$12,556 in 2021.</p>
<p>At the same time, Australian <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/china">trade with China</a>, including services, had leapt to A$188.9 billion in 2021 with imports of A$93.3 billion. Chinese students in Australia last year totalled 170,741, up 30% on the pandemic-affected year before.</p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-a-lot-may-be-changing-in-china-australia-relations-but-a-lot-is-staying-the-same-194817">Grattan on Friday: A lot may be changing in China-Australia relations, but a lot is staying the same</a>
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<p>Occasions such as the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations provide an opportunity to take stock of what has been achieved and to reflect on what lies ahead.</p>
<p>This includes the epic challenge of managing relations with a rising power that is squeezing Australia’s cornerstone security ally in our immediate region.</p>
<p>Based on an extraordinary last five decades economically, it would be foolish to bet against China’s continued rise and rise. If nothing else, that has been the China lesson of a remarkable past 50 years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195705/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Foreign Minister Penny Wong is travelling to China to mark the half-century anniversary of a relationship that has ridden the vicissitudes over that time.Tony Walker, Vice-Chancellor's Fellow, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1832012022-07-05T12:15:38Z2022-07-05T12:15:38ZDemocrats aim to design a presidential nomination process that gives everyone a voice – and produces a winning candidate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471215/original/file-20220627-20-qgljn7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C24%2C5447%2C3596&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg prepare to caucus for him in a high school gym, Feb. 3, 2020, in Des Moines, Iowa. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-democratic-presidential-candidate-democratic-news-photo/1203889098?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the past few election cycles, the quartet of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/06/democratic-primary-2024-dnc-early-states-00030560">Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina has had a lock</a> on the early spots in the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination process.</p>
<p>But that may be about to change.</p>
<p>Like clockwork every four years, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/michigan-might-have-edge-for-early-slot-on-democrats-2024-calendar-11655904600">Democrats hunker down to tweak their rules for presidential nomination</a>, and right now they’re finely tuning the 2024 calendar. The party has routinely pinned its hopes on nomination rules to pave the way for a November win.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.grinnell.edu/user/trish">As a longtime scholar of the presidential nomination process</a>, I have observed that the rules battles aim to find that sweet spot that is likely to churn out a nominee with broad appeal both within the party and outside of it. </p>
<p>The party needs to balance the legitimacy that comes with a process making it easy for average Democrats to insert their voices with the safety valve that lets savvy party insiders weigh in on the selection. All those pieces must produce a process long enough to ensure real competition, but not so long that internal party fences can’t be mended well in advance of the general election.</p>
<p>This time around, the Democratic National Committee is targeting that mix of states that will start the nomination process, hoping for something better than what’s been in place. It’s taken the unusual step of setting up a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/us/politics/democrats-presidential-primary-calendar.html">competition among state parties</a> to help it set the 2024 calendar. Sixteen states and Puerto Rico just made their pitches to the national party to be among the first to hold contests, with a decision expected later this summer.</p>
<p>It’s tempting to flag this all as a ploy to dislodge the Iowa caucuses from their leadoff role, <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/01/13/iowa-caucus-everything-you-need-know-first-nation-voting-state/4423552002/">a position they’ve held since 1972</a>. In fact, Iowa’s claim on that privileged position is very much at risk, especially given its <a href="https://theconversation.com/iowa-caucuses-did-one-thing-right-require-paper-ballots-131181">2020 caucus counting fiasco</a>, which I detail in my book, “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/Inside-the-Bubble-Campaigns-Caucuses-and-the-Future-of-the-Presidential/Trish-Menner/p/book/9780367429782">Inside the Bubble</a>.”</p>
<p>Going early matters because it gives Democrats in those states a larger voice in the nomination. Candidates flock to the early states, <a href="https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/02/19/democrats-flood-tiny-new-hampshire-with-a-year-to-go/">interacting with voters</a> and sometimes <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-elections-nevada-idINKBN1XR0DY">tailoring their policy appeals</a> to the needs unique to a state. The first contests <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-presidential-nominating-process">don’t determine who will win</a>, but they typically knock some candidates out of the running. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People on one side of a table, listening to a woman talking to them from the other side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Election workers at the Elks lodge, Ward 4, in Dover, N.H., on Feb. 11, 2020, when the New Hampshire primary was held.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/moderator-kate-hill-left-talks-with-election-workers-at-the-news-photo/1200330291?adppopup=true">Craig F. Walker/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Who gets to choose?</h2>
<p>The two major U.S. parties are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/27/why-are-there-only-two-parties-in-american-politics/">federal in nature</a>, their organizational structures reflecting the array of elective offices for which they compete, from county sheriff to the president. Even so, the national party is well positioned to call the shots at the state level, shored up by a now decadesold Supreme Court decision establishing the <a href="https://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-supreme-court/419/477.html">national party’s superiority over state parties</a>.</p>
<p>The national committee has kept control over the calendar for a long time, starting down that path when it <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93937947">overhauled nomination rules after the contentious 1968 Democratic national convention</a>. The package of reforms, implemented first in 1972, sought to take presidential nominations out of the proverbial back room and make them more open, more democratic.</p>
<p>Technically, at the primaries and caucuses, <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/elections/presidential-election-process/political-primaries-how-are-candidates-nominated/">voters select the delegates who support the presidential candidate they favor</a>. At the party convention, the candidate with the <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020">majority of delegates</a> wins the nomination.</p>
<p>Before the 1972 reforms, delegate selection wasn’t always tied to outcomes in primaries and caucuses. According to nomination expert <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/book/primary-politics-3/">Elaine Kamarck</a>, 25% of 1968’s presidential delegates were selected in 1967, well before what’s now considered the formal start of the nomination race.</p>
<h2>From caucuses to primaries</h2>
<p>Under the initial terms of the 1972 reforms, the national party didn’t limit how early in the election year a state could hold its nomination contest. That Iowa went first in 1972, though, was not so much a deliberate move for positioning as an unintentional byproduct of another national party rule.</p>
<p>The reformed system, in the interest of allowing time to publicize contests, required 30 days’ notice of delegate selection contests. That meant Iowa had to start early, since the state’s process involved a series of contests, not just the prominent precinct caucuses. But Iowa started even earlier than dictated by the new rules, essentially because of a fluke involving <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/why-iowa-gets-to-go-first-and-other-facts-about-tonights-caucus/2011/08/25/gIQAJtygYP_blog.html">high demand on hotel rooms</a>. </p>
<p>By 1980, Iowa had secured its role as <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/why-iowa-and-new-hampshire-go-first">the first caucus and New Hampshire was designated</a> as the first primary. For that election cycle, the Democratic National Committee imposed a rule condensing nomination contests into a 13-week window, beginning in early March. But then-President Jimmy Carter, seeking reelection and with sway over his party, <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/08/30/iowa-caucus-a-brief-history-of-why-iowa-caucuses-are-first-election-2020-dnc-virtual-caucus/2163813001/">pushed for an exception for Iowa and New Hampshire</a>, states that had jump-started his 1976 campaign and might serve as a firewall. The national committee ultimately granted the exception. </p>
<p>Back in the 1970s, the Democratic National Committee had no beef with caucuses, and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/01/31/what-to-know-about-the-iowa-caucuses/ft_20-01-28_iowaexplainer_3/">more states held caucuses than primaries</a>. They were seen as settings for deliberation and activist engagement.</p>
<p>But in 2022, caucuses are under fire for being <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/01/31/801251408/for-some-iowa-voters-caucuses-remain-a-barrier-to-participation">exclusionary</a>, and most states hold primaries. The switch from caucuses to primaries in the 1970s and 1980s was largely an unanticipated consequence of the initial reform, because complying with those new rules from 1972 was easier with primaries than caucuses. In 2020, the Democratic National Committee pushed states <a href="https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/URC_Report_FINAL.pdf">to expand the use of primaries</a>, asserting that they are more inclusive, transparent and accessible than caucuses.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Ten people on a brightly lit stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Caucuses and primaries aim to winnow down large fields of candidates. These 10 Democrats were only half of the field when this debate was held on June 26, 2019, in Miami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-candidates-new-york-city-mayor-bill-news-photo/1158519177?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Losing sway</h2>
<p>The irony is that in moving to a primary, a party relinquishes power. </p>
<p>Caucuses are party-run and party-financed events, while primaries are state-run party elections. In <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_composition_of_state_legislatures">an era dominated by Republican-controlled state legislatures</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/08/13/1026588142/map-see-which-states-have-restricted-voter-access-and-which-states-have-expanded">some of which have passed restrictive voting laws</a>, Democratic primary states put themselves at the mercy of the opposition party.</p>
<p>This summer’s actions by the Democratic National Committee could shake up the 2024 calendar. Iowa’s at risk of losing its privileged position, but so far the committee hasn’t guaranteed any state an exception to the 13-week window. The committee says that up to five states will be able to hold contests before the window begins. The other three traditional early-goers, I believe, are positioned a little better than Iowa to nab one of the early slots. </p>
<p>There’s no reason to think that White House pressure would prevail as it has in the past, but if so, the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/05/joe-biden-iowa-caucus-gut-punch-110837">“gut punch”</a> Iowa delivered to then-candidate Biden in 2020 and his <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/01/joe-biden-south-carolina-118379">“resurrection”</a> in South Carolina would likely carry weight in the deliberations.</p>
<p>Iowa Democrats <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2022/06/03/iowa-caucuses-democrats-propose-major-changes-caucus-presidential-election/7484775001/">submitted their proposal</a> to the Democratic National Committee in early June 2022, describing a process that retains the caucus label yet complies with stated committee criteria of fairness, transparency and inclusivity. Notably, Iowa’s new plan provides for a period for participants to express presidential preferences before the actual caucuses, meaning there would be a way for voters to participate without attending the caucuses. This would make the process a little more inclusive. </p>
<p>A final decision on which states will be able to hold early contests is expected from the Democratic National Committee in early September. </p>
<p>Whatever the shape of the new calendar, it’s a safe bet that things won’t play out precisely as planned, given that unanticipated consequences have marked the party’s reform efforts in the past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183201/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara A. Trish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Iowa caucuses have traditionally heralded the start of the Democratic Party’s presidential nominating contest. But the party, eager to maintain the White House, is redesigning that process.Barbara A. Trish, Professor of Political Science, Grinnell CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1775132022-05-25T13:46:19Z2022-05-25T13:46:19ZWhat the Voyager space probes can teach humanity about immortality and legacy as they sail through space for trillions of years<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464877/original/file-20220523-11-z3t5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C799%2C589&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scientists expect the Voyager spacecraft to outlive Earth by at least a trillion years.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PIA17036_Voyager_the_Explorer.jpg#/media/File:PIA17036_Voyager_the_Explorer.jpg">NASA/JPL-CalTech</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Voyager 1 is the farthest human-made object from Earth. After sweeping by Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, it is now almost <a href="https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/">15 billion miles (24 billion kilometers) from Earth</a> in interstellar space. Both Voyager 1 and its twin, Voyager 2, carry little pieces of humanity in the form of their <a href="https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/">Golden Records</a>. These messages in a bottle include spoken greetings in 55 languages, sounds and images from nature, an album of recordings and images from numerous cultures, and a written message of welcome from Jimmy Carter, who was U.S. president <a href="https://theconversation.com/voyager-golden-records-40-years-later-real-audience-was-always-here-on-earth-79886">when the spacecraft left Earth in 1977</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464881/original/file-20220523-23-zyjgnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A golden colored record with 'The Sounds of Earth' written in the center." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464881/original/file-20220523-23-zyjgnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464881/original/file-20220523-23-zyjgnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464881/original/file-20220523-23-zyjgnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464881/original/file-20220523-23-zyjgnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464881/original/file-20220523-23-zyjgnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464881/original/file-20220523-23-zyjgnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464881/original/file-20220523-23-zyjgnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Each Voyager spacecraft carries a Golden Record containing two hours of sounds, music and greetings from around the world. Carl Sagan and other scientists assumed that any civilization advanced enough to detect and capture the record in space could figure out how to play it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Sounds_of_Earth_-_GPN-2000-001976.jpg">NASA/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Golden Records were built to last a billion years in the environment of space, but in a recent analysis of the paths and perils these explorers may face, astronomers calculated that they <a href="https://www.space.com/predicting-voyager-golden-records-distant-future">could exist for trillions of years</a> without coming remotely close to any stars.</p>
<p>Having spent my career in the field of <a href="https://sipa.fiu.edu/people/faculty/religious-studies/hurchingson.james.html">religion and science</a>, I’ve thought a lot about how spiritual ideas intersect with technological achievements. The incredible longevity of the Voyager spacecraft presents a uniquely tangible entry point into exploring ideas of immortality.</p>
<p>For many people, immortality is the everlasting existence of a soul or spirit that follows death. It can also mean the continuation of one’s legacy in memory and records. With its Golden Record, each Voyager provides such a legacy, but only if it is discovered and appreciated by an alien civilization in the distant future. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464879/original/file-20220523-15-ck32f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People in black standing around a coffin at a gravesite." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464879/original/file-20220523-15-ck32f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464879/original/file-20220523-15-ck32f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464879/original/file-20220523-15-ck32f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464879/original/file-20220523-15-ck32f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464879/original/file-20220523-15-ck32f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464879/original/file-20220523-15-ck32f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464879/original/file-20220523-15-ck32f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many religions espouse some form of life after death.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/outdoor-shot-of-funeral-royalty-free-image/104305070?adppopup=true">RubberBall Productions/Brand X Pictures via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Life after death</h2>
<p>Religious beliefs about immortality are numerous and diverse. Most religions foresee a postmortem career for a personal soul or spirit, and these range from everlasting residence among the stars to reincarnation. </p>
<p>The ideal eternal life for many Christians and Muslims is to abide forever in God’s presence in heaven or paradise. Judaism’s teachings about what happens after death are less clear. In the Hebrew Bible, the dead are mere “shades” in a darkened place called Sheol. Some rabbinical authorities <a href="https://jewishencyclopedia.com/articles/12697-resurrection">give credence to the resurrection of the righteous</a> and even to the eternal status of souls.</p>
<p>Immortality is not limited to the individual. It can be collective as well. For many Jews, the <a href="https://library.yctorah.org/2016/05/the-importance-of-the-land-of-israel/">final destiny of the nation of Israel or its people</a> is of paramount importance. Many Christians anticipate a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Kingdom-of-God">future general resurrection</a> of all who have died and the coming of the kingdom of God for the faithful.</p>
<p>Jimmy Carter, whose message and autograph are immortalized in the Golden Records, is a progressive Southern Baptist and a living example of religious hope for immortality. Now <a href="https://healthcare.utah.edu/healthfeed/postings/2015/08/082015_jimmy.carter.php">battling brain cancer</a> and approaching centenarian status, he has thought about dying. Following his diagnosis, Carter <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/11/04/jimmy-carter-says-he-is-completely-ease-with-death/">concluded in a sermon</a>: “It didn’t matter to me whether I died or lived. … My Christian faith includes complete confidence in life after death. So I’m going to live again after I die.”</p>
<p>It is plausible to conclude that the potential of an alien witnessing the Golden Record and becoming aware of Carter’s identity billions of years in the future would offer only marginal additional consolation for him. Carter’s knowledge in his ultimate destiny is a measure of his deep faith in the immortality of his soul. In this sense, he likely represents people of numerous faiths. </p>
<h2>Secular immortality</h2>
<p>For people who are secular or nonreligious there is little solace to be found in an appeal to the continuing existence of a soul or spirit following one’s death. Carl Sagan, who came up with the idea for the Golden Records and led their development, wrote of the afterlife: “<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/1221453-i-would-love-to-believe-that-when-i-die-i">I know of nothing to suggest that it is more than just wishful thinking</a>.” He was more saddened by thoughts of missing important life experiences – like seeing his children grow up – than fearful about the expected annihilation of his conscious self with the death of his brain.</p>
<p>For those like Sagan there are other possible options for immortality. They include <a href="https://gizmodo.com/why-freezing-yourself-is-a-terrible-way-to-achieve-immo-1552142674">freezing and preserving the body for future physical resurrection</a> or <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-your-uploaded-mind-still-be-you-11568386410">uploading one’s consciousness and turning it into a digital form</a> that would long outlast the brain. Neither of these potential paths to physical immortality has proved to be feasible yet.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cEzcFXRKHUw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Golden Records contain a snapshot of Earth and humanity.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Voyagers and legacy</h2>
<p>Most people, whether secular or religious, want the actions they do while alive to bear <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaging.2004.08.002">continuing meaning into the future as their fruitful legacy</a>. People want to be remembered and appreciated, even cherished. Sagan summed it up nicely: “To live in the hearts we leave behind <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/1029590-to-live-in-the-hearts-we-leave-behind-is-to">is to live forever</a>.” </p>
<p>With Voyagers 1 and 2 estimated to exist for more than a trillion years, they are about as immortal as it gets for human artifacts. Even before the Sun’s expected demise when it runs out of fuel in about 5 billion years, all living species, mountains, seas and forests <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sun-wont-die-for-5-billion-years-so-why-do-humans-have-only-1-billion-years-left-on-earth-37379">will have long been obliterated</a>. It will be as if we and all the marvelous and extravagant beauty of planet Earth never existed – a devastating thought to me.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464878/original/file-20220523-21-ofwph8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart showing the path of Voyager 1 spiraling off into the distance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464878/original/file-20220523-21-ofwph8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464878/original/file-20220523-21-ofwph8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=199&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464878/original/file-20220523-21-ofwph8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=199&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464878/original/file-20220523-21-ofwph8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=199&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464878/original/file-20220523-21-ofwph8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464878/original/file-20220523-21-ofwph8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464878/original/file-20220523-21-ofwph8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voyager 1’s path, in white, has taken the craft well past the orbits of the outer planets into interstellar space, where aliens may someday come across the relic of humanity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Voyager_1_skypath_1977-2030.png#/media/File:Voyager_1_skypath_1977-2030.png">NASA/JPL via Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But in the distant future, the two Voyager spacecraft will still be floating in space, awaiting discovery by an advanced alien civilization for whom the messages on the Golden Records were intended. Only those records will likely remain as testimony and legacy of Earth, a kind of objective immortality.</p>
<p>Religious and spiritual people can find solace in the belief that God or an afterlife waits for them after death. For the secular, hoping that someone or something will remember humanity, any wakeful and appreciative aliens will have to do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Edward Huchingson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A professor of religion and science explains different views on immortality, from the religious perspective of President Jimmy Carter to the scientific, secular take of Carl Sagan.James Edward Huchingson, Professor Emeritus and Lecturer in Religion and Science, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1728382021-11-30T20:10:33Z2021-11-30T20:10:33ZBiden brings a menorah lighting back to the White House, rededicating a Hanukkah tradition from the 20th century<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434756/original/file-20211130-19-lugoip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C27%2C4576%2C3094&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The lighting of the National Menorah in Washington, D.C. in 2012.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TempestInACoffeeCup/97886c33be6746f39a45537b5aefd4f8/photo?Query=white%20house%20menorah&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=101&currentItemNo=95">AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden’s staff has dispatched invitations to a “<a href="https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1463711477236436994?s=20">Menorah Lighting to be held at the White House</a>” on Dec. 1, the evening when the fourth candle of the eight-day festival of Hanukkah will be lit. The event promises to be quite different from last year’s event, hosted by Donald Trump. </p>
<p>President Trump in 2020 held what he called a “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55265441">Hanukkah Reception</a>” in midafternoon before Hanukkah began. The reception was a heavily partisan affair, no candles were lit, much food was consumed, and some of the participants went maskless, the raging COVID epidemic notwithstanding. Most Democrats as well as many Jewish leaders stayed home. </p>
<p>President Biden’s “menorah lighting,” by contrast, promises to privilege ritual over reception, focusing on the lighting of the traditional Hanukkah candelabrum itself. Reportedly, the event will be nonpartisan, with COVID-19 precautions enforced. According to the Jewish Forward, <a href="https://forward.com/news/478762/the-more-modest-less-partisan-white-house-hanukkah-party-is-on/">no food or drink will be served at all, so masks won’t even need to be lifted</a>. In addition, the guest list has been severely pared down to encourage social distancing – so much so that a senior White House official was quoted as saying it would likely be the smallest White House Hanukkah party in history. </p>
<p>The vice president and second gentleman Douglas Emhoff are <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/vp-kamala-harris-and-husband-doug-emhoff-light-hanukkah-menorah-at-home/">slated to be among those in attendance</a>, and for the first time the ceremony will be livestreamed. On Nov. 28, Emhoff also attended the lighting of the National Menorah on the Washington Ellipse. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1463923298413252615"}"></div></p>
<p>Overlooked amid these carefully parsed details is a question that, to me, as a <a href="https://www.brandeis.edu/hornstein/sarna/index.html">historian of American Jewish life and a scholar of American religion</a>, seems far more fascinating and important: How did the office of the president of the United States come to hold official White House menorah lightings and Hanukkah parties in the first place? </p>
<h2>White House traditions</h2>
<p>For most of American history, the only December holiday that <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/press-room/press-backgrounders/white-house-christmas-traditions">gained White House recognition</a> was Christmas. President John Adams and first lady Abigail Adams, back in 1800, threw the first White House Christmas party, a modest affair, planned with their 4-year-old granddaughter in mind, and with invitations sent to selected government officials and their children. </p>
<p>In 1923, President Calvin Coolidge inaugurated the <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/a-coolidge-christmas">practice of lighting an official White House Christmas tree</a>. He also delivered the first formal presidential Christmas message. His message assumed, as most Americans of that time did, that everybody celebrated Christmas. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434757/original/file-20211130-25-1gv89hd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Jimmy Carter, stands with a rabbi, at the Hanukkah menorah lighting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434757/original/file-20211130-25-1gv89hd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434757/original/file-20211130-25-1gv89hd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434757/original/file-20211130-25-1gv89hd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434757/original/file-20211130-25-1gv89hd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434757/original/file-20211130-25-1gv89hd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1120&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434757/original/file-20211130-25-1gv89hd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1120&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434757/original/file-20211130-25-1gv89hd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1120&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Jimmy Carter at Lafayette Park in Washington D.C. for the Hanukkah menorah lighting in 1979.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Carter_Menorah.jpg">White House</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It displayed, according to <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1352/WHITE_HOUSE_CAROLS_AND_BRILLIA.pdf">The Washington Post</a>, “the reverence of a Christian people giving at the seat of their government the expression of their praise for ‘the King of kings’ on the eve of the anniversary of His birth.” Neither Adams nor Coolidge uttered one word about Hanukkah. </p>
<p>Official notice of Hanukkah waited another half-century – until 1979 – by which time Jews had become much more visible as members of American society and government. Ironically, the president who first <a href="http://mallhistory.org/items/show/525">paid attention to Hanukkah was Jimmy Carter</a>, although he wasn’t the Jewish community’s favorite Democratic candidate. When he ran for reelection in 1980, he got <a href="https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-voting-record-in-u-s-presidential-elections">less than 50%</a> of the Jewish vote – less than any Democrat since 1928. </p>
<p>In 1979, following weeks of seclusion in the White House after Iranian students took over the U.S. embassy in Tehran, seizing 52 diplomats and citizens, President Carter emerged and crossed over to Lafayette Park. He <a href="http://mallhistory.org/items/show/525">lit the large Hanukkah candelabrum</a>, dubbed the “National Menorah,” that had been <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/why-theres-30-foot-menorah-national-mall-180961553/">erected in the park with private funds</a> and delivered brief remarks. </p>
<p>Seeing that Jews celebrate their own holiday in December – Hanukkah – he directed his <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/There_Really_Is_a_Santa_Claus/6rAc9xM5VqYC?hl=en&gbpv=0">next annual Christmas message not to all Americans, as heretofore, but</a> only “to those of our fellow citizens who join us in the joyous celebration of Christmas.” </p>
<p>Every president since has recognized Hanukkah with a special menorah lighting ceremony or reception and limited his Christmas messages to those who actually observe the holiday.</p>
<h2>Menorah lightings</h2>
<p>Hanukkah came to the White House itself in 1989, when <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/president/holiday/hanukkah/">President George H.W. Bush displayed a menorah</a> there – a candelabrum given to him by the Synagogue Council of America. </p>
<p>But Bill Clinton was the first president to actually light a menorah in the White House. In 1993, he invited a dozen schoolchildren to the Oval Office for a small ceremony. The event made headlines when <a href="https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/os-xpm-1993-12-09-9312090779-story.html">6-year-old Ilana Kattan’s ponytail dipped into the flame</a> and a wisp of smoke was visible around her head. <a href="https://slate.com/human-interest/2020/12/white-house-hanukkah-hair-fire-bill-clinton.html">Clinton memorably extinguished the flame</a> with his bare hands. </p>
<p>Menorah lightings grew in prominence during the Clinton years. Memorably, in 1998 Clinton <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/president/holiday/hanukkah/">joined Israel’s then-President Ezer Weizman</a> in lighting a candle on the first night of Hanukkah in Jerusalem. </p>
<p>But no White House Hanukkah parties ever took place under Clinton. Instead, he included Jewish leaders in a large annual “holiday party.” </p>
<h2>Annual Hanukkah parties</h2>
<p>The first president to host an official White House Hanukkah party, and the first to actually light a menorah in the White House residence and not just in its public spaces, was <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?167772-1/hanukkah-menorah-lighting">George W. Bush, beginning in both cases in 2001</a>.</p>
<p>Bush made a point of inserting religion into his many annual Christmas parties. He <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/12/20011210-7.html">sought to underscore</a> through the Hanukkah party that the White House “belongs to people of all faiths.” Since then Hanukkah has become an official White House tradition. </p>
<p>Hasidic leaders in the distinctive black suits worn by members of their community regularly appeared at these parties. Beginning in 2005 the <a href="https://www.insider.com/white-house-hanukkah-party-history-how-it-began#the-white-house-kitchen-was-made-kosher-for-the-occasion-starting-in-2005-7">parties became completely kosher</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C64%2C2502%2C1600&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C64%2C2502%2C1600&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Barack Obama at the annual Hanukkah reception in the White House in 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ObamaHanukkah/88ffacdd25304636bef6e2162e018d7a/photo?Query=hanukkah%20white%20house&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=216&currentItemNo=13">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Barack Obama maintained the tradition of the White House Hanukkah party, holding two of them in 2013, and Donald Trump maintained the tradition as well. Both in 2018 and 2019, he also held <a href="https://www.jta.org/2018/12/07/united-states/trumps-hanukkah-parties-celebrate-his-decision-to-move-the-israel-embassy">two Hanukkah parties</a> for his friends and Jewish family members – including his daughter, Ivanka – and invited selected non-Jewish guests to attend them. Last year, amid the pandemic, Trump again held two Hanukkah parties. He spoke at one of them and lamented the “<a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/stopping-by-white-house-hanukkah-party-trump-laments-stolen-election/">stolen election</a>” that he insisted he had won.</p>
<p>The fact that this year the White House is abandoning the Hanukkah reception altogether and returning to the tradition of the menorah lighting suggests a shift back to the religious aspects of Hanukkah. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>What is truly significant, however, is how much America has changed since Presidents John Adams and Calvin Coolidge invented America’s White House Christmas traditions and paid no attention to Hanukkah at all.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hanukkah-came-to-be-an-annual-white-house-celebration-150506">first published</a> on Dec. 4, 2020</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172838/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan D. Sarna does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Every president since Jimmy Carter has recognized Hanukkah with a special menorah lighting ceremony.Jonathan D. Sarna, University Professor and Joseph H. & Belle R. Braun Professor of American Jewish History, Brandeis UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1648512021-08-04T12:32:50Z2021-08-04T12:32:50ZUnderstanding evangelicalism in America today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414351/original/file-20210803-15-11uf99u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C2977%2C1971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Evangelicals share the recognition of the Bible as the ultimate authority.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/attendees-hold-hands-and-pray-as-rev-franklin-graham-speaks-news-photo/963640408?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A precipitous decline in the number of Americans identifying as white evangelical was revealed in <a href="https://www.prri.org/">Public Religion Research Institute’s</a> <a href="https://www.prri.org/research/2020-census-of-american-religion/">2020 Census on American Religion</a>. In 2006, almost a quarter of the American population identified as white evangelical, but only 14.5% the population does so today. </p>
<p>Evangelical is an umbrella category within Protestant Christianity. The category of <a href="https://theconversation.com/think-us-evangelicals-are-dying-out-well-define-evangelicalism-152640">evangelical is complicated</a>; unlike Catholics, who have a centralized authority, evangelicals do not maintain a single spokesperson or institution. Instead, evangelicalism in the United States today is composed of several institutions, churches and a network of largely conservative spokespersons. </p>
<p>Consequently, there are a variety of churches, theologies and practices within evangelicalism. They include certain groups such as Baptists, Methodists and nondenominational churches, among others, many of which are members of the <a href="https://www.nae.net/">National Association of Evangelicals</a>.</p>
<p>So what constitutes an evangelical, or what is evangelicalism in the United States today? </p>
<h2>Conversion and converting</h2>
<p>One place to begin is historian <a href="https://www.stir.ac.uk/expert/name/professor-david-bebbington-139">David Bebbington</a>’s four-part definition of evangelicalism. In his <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Evangelicalism-in-Modern-Britain-A-History-from-the-1730s-to-the-1980s/Bebbington/p/book/9780415104647">1989 book</a>, Bebbington argued that evangelicals share a recognition of the Bible as the ultimate authority, emphasize the work of Jesus’ crucifixion in human salvation, share a born-again experience and are active socially in reforming society.</p>
<p>Most Christians recognize the authority of the biblical text and the centrality of Jesus’ crucifixion. The born-again conversion experience and a particular kind of social engagement separate evangelicals from other types of Christians in the United States. For evangelicals, the born-again experience is the only way that any <a href="https://billygraham.org/story/is-jesus-the-only-way-to-heaven/">individual can gain access into heaven in the afterlife</a>. All other religious alternatives are rejected.</p>
<p>Born-again represents a new life that evangelical converts gain when they recognize the redemptive power of Jesus’ death and resurrection. Generally, the born-again experience is enacted when individuals recite the “sinner’s prayer.” This simple religious ritual acknowledges the individual’s imperfection in this life, a request to be guided by God for the remainder of the individual’s life and a promise of a blissful afterlife. </p>
<p>For most evangelicals, the born-again moment signifies a fresh start or a cleansing of one’s soul – old mistakes are forgotten by the divine. Afterward, baptism, a ritual water purification, follows.</p>
<p>An expectation for all new evangelical converts is that they will eventually participate in evangelizing – sharing their Christian experience with others in the hopes of leading others to a born-again experience. </p>
<p>There are some theologically specific differences within evangelicalism. Internal debates focus on such topics as <a href="https://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2000/march6/32.84.html">speaking in tongues</a> or <a href="https://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2020/june-web-only/research-evangelicals-women-leaders-complementarian-preach.html">the role of women in leadership</a>. Speaking in tongues is thought by charismatic or Pentecostal evangelicals to be the ability to speak in different or angelic languages to transmit a message from the divine.</p>
<p>Like a diversity of ideas related to speaking in tongues, some denominations deny that women can be pastors or ministers while others ordain women into the ministry. There are popular female evangelical authors, such as <a href="https://joycemeyer.org/">Joyce Meyer</a>, and televangelists, such as <a href="https://paulawhite.org/">Paula White</a>, a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/religion/2020/01/26/paula-white-miscarry-metaphor/">spiritual adviser to former President Donald Trump</a>. </p>
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<h2>Political engagements</h2>
<p>As a scholar of religion in America, I’ve seen how evangelicalism in the United States is generally recognized for its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/28/us/religion-politics-evangelicals.html">political allegiances with the Republican Party</a>. Since <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/03/22/reagan-tied-republicans-white-christians-now-party-is-trapped/">the Ronald Reagan era</a>, evangelicals have overwhelmingly supported Republican presidential candidates. This is ironic, as President Jimmy Carter, who identified as a born-again Christian, <a href="https://www.salon.com/2014/05/25/jimmy_carters_evangelical_downfall_reagan_religion_and_the_1980_presidential_election/">lost evangelical support</a> to Reagan, who identified as Christian. But as religion scholar <a href="https://faculty-directory.dartmouth.edu/randall-balmer">Randall Balmer</a> noted, Reagan “<a href="https://www.salon.com/2014/05/25/jimmy_carters_evangelical_downfall_reagan_religion_and_the_1980_presidential_election/">seemed a tad uneasy about the label</a>” of evangelical. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414353/original/file-20210803-15-1287uif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Ronald Reagan speaking to the National Association of Evangelicals." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414353/original/file-20210803-15-1287uif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414353/original/file-20210803-15-1287uif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414353/original/file-20210803-15-1287uif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414353/original/file-20210803-15-1287uif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414353/original/file-20210803-15-1287uif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414353/original/file-20210803-15-1287uif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414353/original/file-20210803-15-1287uif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Evangelicals in the U.S. have been politically aligned with the Republican Party.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-ronald-reagan-gestures-as-he-speaks-to-the-news-photo/515564272?adppopup=true">Bettmann / Contributor via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Evangelicalism in the United States is composed of institutions and networks of conservative Christians working to spread its ideologies in the political sphere. Organizations like evangelical author <a href="https://www.drjamesdobson.org/">James Dobson</a>’s <a href="https://www.focusonthefamily.com/">Focus on the Family</a>, along with lobbying groups like political consultant <a href="https://www.ffcoalition.com/leadership/">Ralph Reed</a>’s <a href="https://www.ffcoalition.com/">Faith & Freedom Coalition</a>, remain influential in attempting to shape the American government into an evangelical worldview. </p>
<p>Politically, evangelicals are extremely active in advancing anti-abortion, anti-same sex marriage and “<a href="https://www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/15416.html">family values</a>” positions in an effort to restore the country to its perceived Christian roots. </p>
<p>But not all evangelicals agree about politics. Within evangelicalism there exist <a href="https://global.oup.com/ushe/product/divided-by-faith-9780195147070?cc=us&lang=en&">racial differences</a>. <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/religious-tradition/evangelical-protestant/racial-and-ethnic-composition/">Many sociological projects</a> highlight the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/us-presidential-election-evangelical-vote-is-diverse/12834126">political distinctions in voting patterns and on social issues</a> between white and Black evangelicals.</p>
<h2>Exiles, marginals and ‘dones’</h2>
<p>Some people raised within evangelicalism <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-some-younger-evangelicals-are-leaving-the-faith-164230">are rejecting the faith’s rigid boundaries and constraints</a> today. There are a growing number of “exvangelicals” – those who were insiders who no longer fit the parameters. Many within the exvangelical movement have voluntarily left. However, others describe their <a href="https://religionandpolitics.org/2019/04/09/the-rise-of-exvangelical/">departure as exilic, or having been forced out because of their views and lifestyles</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://religiondispatches.org/exvangelical-tiktokkers-arent-a-sign-of-the-end-times-but-heres-what-evangelicals-need-to-understand-about-the-falling-away/">Using forms of social media</a>, many exvangelicals are sharing their stories and exposing the theology and church practices negatively affecting their lives. </p>
<p>Changes in theology often result in political alterations as well. For instance, exvangelical podcaster and blogger <a href="https://thebeachedwhitemale.com/blake_chastain/">Blake Chastain</a> wrote, “As more and more people question the teachings of their white evangelical churches, they will inevitably consider the consequences of its social and political actions.” Many younger evangelicals reject, for example, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-some-younger-evangelicals-are-leaving-the-faith-164230">evangelicalism’s resistance to immigration expansions and gay marriage</a>. </p>
<p>Some raised within evangelicalism remain in the margins of evangelicalism. Liberal forms of evangelicalism exist – albeit in the minority – including some featuring progressive evangelical churches that accept members of the LGBTQ community, question the reality of hell and read the Bible less literally. Some within these circles debate <a href="https://www.christianpost.com/news/evangelical-brand-redeemable-donald-trump-tony-campolo.html">whether the label of evangelical is redeemable</a>, while others <a href="https://www.patheos.com/blogs/jesuscreed/2017/10/16/burying-word-evangelical/">reject the moniker</a> entirely. </p>
<p>The future of evangelicalism in the United States is undetermined, but some within the tradition are calling for serious reflection regarding evangelicalism’s political stances. For instance, some evangelicals are critical of white evangelicals’ <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/02/24/970685909/evangelical-leaders-condemn-radicalized-christian-nationalism">Christian nationalism</a>, which is <a href="https://academic.oup.com/socrel/article/79/2/147/4825283?login=true">defined as</a> “a set of beliefs and ideals that seek the national preservation of a supposedly unique Christian identity.” Others are questioning <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/andy-stanley-evangelicals-trump/617103/">political allegiances</a> and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/books/under-review/american-christianitys-white-supremacy-problem">race relations</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Shoemaker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A religion scholar explains how evangelicalism in the US is not a monolith. It includes a a variety of churches, theologies and practices.Terry Shoemaker, Lecturer Religious Studies, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1609672021-05-20T12:23:50Z2021-05-20T12:23:50ZSurvey experts have yet to figure out what caused the most significant polling error in 40 years in Trump-Biden race<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401428/original/file-20210518-19-1df2r2l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=54%2C27%2C4487%2C2914&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Biden supporters in Philadelphia celebrate when his win -- with a much smaller margin than predicted by polls -- was projected by news outlets on Nov. 7, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-celebrate-while-listening-to-the-president-elect-joe-news-photo/1284491700?adppopup=true">Chris McGrath/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than six months after the astonishing <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-embarrassing-failure-for-election-pollsters-149499">polling embarrassment</a> in the 2020 U.S. elections, survey experts examining what went wrong are uncertain about what led to the sharpest discrepancy between the polls and popular vote outcome since Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in a <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/4/newsid_3192000/3192279.stm">near-landslide</a> in 1980. </p>
<p>Lingering questions about the misfire in 2020, in which voter support for then-President Donald Trump was understated in final pre-election polls, suggest that troubles in accurately surveying presidential elections could be deeper and more profound than previously recognized. If the source of the polling miscall isn’t clear, then addressing and correcting it obviously becomes quite challenging.</p>
<p>Moreover, as I discussed in my 2020 book “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520300965/lost-in-a-gallup">Lost in a Gallup</a>,” polling failures in presidential elections <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/social-science-history/article/president-landon-and-the-1936-literary-digest-poll/E360C38884D77AA8D71555E7AB6B822C">since 1936</a> rarely have been repetitive. Just as no two elections are alike, no two polling failures are quite the same. </p>
<p>Over the years, pollsters have anticipated tight presidential elections when <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/5/newsid_3783000/3783245.stm">landslides have occurred</a>. They have signaled the wrong winner in closer elections. The estimates of venerable pollsters have been <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx">singularly in error</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2005/01/20/report-acknowledges-inaccuracies-in-2004-exit-polls/d895ea8c-b2ad-46ea-af6d-cc5acb011dd7/">Wayward exit polls</a> have <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2004-nov-04-na-pollsters4-story.html">thrown Election Day into confusion</a> by identifying the losing candidate as the likely winner. Off-target state polls have confounded expected national outcomes, which essentially was the story in 2016. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="One voter standing at a white voting both that sits on blue metal legs with casters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter walks to a booth to fill out their ballot at Public School 160 on Nov. 3, 2020, in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voter-walks-to-a-booth-to-fill-out-their-ballot-at-public-news-photo/1229441647?adppopup=true">David Dee Delgado/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Support that wasn’t there</h2>
<p>In 2020, overall, election polls pointed to Democrat Joe Biden’s winning the presidency. But the polls overstated support for Biden and underestimated backing for Trump no matter how close to the election the poll was conducted and <a href="https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Sampling-Methods-for-Political-Polling.aspx">regardless of the methods</a> pollsters chose. Surveys in races for U.S. senator and governor were beset by similar shortcomings.</p>
<p>Those were among the key findings described recently at the annual conference of the <a href="https://www.aapor.org/">American Association for Public Opinion Research</a>, which was convened online. The organization had recruited a <a href="https://www.aapor.org/Publications-Media/Press-Releases/AAPOR-Convenes-Task-Force-to-Formally-Examine-Poll.aspx">task force</a> of 19 experts in survey research who examined the 2020 election polls in detail and reported being unable, so far, to pinpoint specific causes of polling errors. </p>
<p>Their findings did make clear, however, that the 2020 miscall was the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-biden-was-worst-presidential-polling-miss-in-40-years-panel-says-11620909178">most significant in 40 years</a>.</p>
<p>Polls in the presidential race in 2020 collectively overstated Biden’s lead by 3.9 percentage points, the task force chair, Joshua Clinton of Vanderbilt University, said in a presentation at the conference. </p>
<p>This marked the fourth presidential election in the past five in which the national polls, at least to some extent, overstated support for Democratic candidates.</p>
<h2>Masking dramatic miscalls</h2>
<p>Averaging the polling errors, as the task force did in conducting its analysis, is broadly revealing about the extent of those errors. But it has the effect of masking several dramatic miscalls in late-campaign polls conducted in 2020 by, or for, leading news organizations. The final <a href="http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/10/28/rel15.pdf">CNN poll</a> had Biden ahead by 12 points. Surveys for The <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/president-trump-trails-joe-biden-by-10-points-nationally-in-final-days-of-election-11604239200">Wall Street Journal-NBC News</a> and by the <a href="https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jsojry0vph/econTabReport.pdf">Economist-YouGov</a> had Biden winning by 10 percentage points as the campaign wound down. A few polls, such as <a href="https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-with-five-point-lead-one-week-out">Emerson College’s survey</a>, came close in estimating the outcome.</p>
<p>Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points.</p>
<p>Clinton, the Vanderbilt professor, said the task force eliminated several prospective causes of polling error in 2020, including those that likely distorted survey results in key states in 2016 when Trump unexpectedly won an Electoral College victory. Those factors included undecided voters swinging to Trump late in the campaign and a failure by some pollsters to adjust survey results to account for varying levels of education. </p>
<p>White voters without college degrees were understood to have voted heavily for Trump in 2016, but those voters were underrepresented in some polls in key states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Trump won narrowly and surprisingly.</p>
<p>A source of the miscalls in 2020, Clinton said, may have been that Republicans were less inclined than Democrats to agree to be interviewed by pollsters. </p>
<p>If that’s so, it’s not entirely clear why that happened. And that prospect troubles pollsters and survey research experts.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/staff/courtney-kennedy/">Courtney Kennedy</a>, director of survey research at Pew Research Center, said while moderating a panel discussion at the conference that “what keeps me from getting a good night’s sleep these days is the prospect … Republicans, or maybe certain types of Republicans, seem like they’re less inclined to participate in polls these days than Democrats.” </p>
<p>This may be a tough problem for pollsters to overcome, she said, adding, “It would be a real challenge” to calibrate poll-taking to capture such nuanced distinctions. </p>
<p>Likewise, it is unclear whether Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/us/politics/trump-polls.html">sharp criticism of pre-election polls</a> in 2020 dissuaded his supporters from participating in surveys.</p>
<p>“So it’s possible that these may be short-term phenomena that will abate when Trump is not on the ballot,” <a href="https://twitter.com/danielmerkle?lang=en">Daniel Merkle</a>, president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OM7AlsJ87qg">said in a speech</a> recorded for conference-goers. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 106,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>“On the other hand, it could be a broader issue of conservatives becoming less likely to respond to polls in general because of a decline in social trust, or for some other reasons. It will take further evaluation to understand this nonresponse issue and to adjust for it. This may not be an easy task,” Merkle said. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screenshot of a Wall Street Journal story on Nov. 1, 2020, reporting a 10-point lead for Joe Biden in the final days of the 2020 campaign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Screenshot of a Wall Street Journal story about its poll with NBC News, showing Biden with a 10-point lead over Trump in the waning days of the 2020 campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/president-trump-trails-joe-biden-by-10-points-nationally-in-final-days-of-election-11604239200">The Wall Street Journal</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Overblown characterizations</h2>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, several media critics asserted that polling seemed “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/we-still-dont-know-much-about-this-election--except-that-the-media-and-pollsters-blew-it-again/2020/11/04/40c0d416-1e4a-11eb-b532-05c751cd5dc2_story.html">irrevocably broken</a>” and faced “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/">serious existential questions</a>.” </p>
<p>Such alarming characterizations appear overblown; <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/political-polling-trust-history.html">polls are not going to melt away</a>. After all, election polling represents a slice of a multibillion-dollar industry that includes consumer and product surveys of all types.</p>
<p>And if election polling survived the <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1998-nov-01-mn-38174-story.html">debacle of 1948</a> – when President Harry S. Truman <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/op-ed/bs-ed-op-1021-poll-mistakes-20181017-story.html">defied predictions of pollsters</a> and pundits to win reelection – then it surely will live on after the embarrassment of 2020.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Joseph Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Stung by their failure to accurately predict the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, pollsters collectively went off to figure out what went wrong. They have yet to figure out what or why.W. Joseph Campbell, Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of CommunicationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1554602021-02-23T14:49:27Z2021-02-23T14:49:27ZWhat’s an ex-president to do? Trump and the post-White House lives of his predecessors<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385574/original/file-20210222-13-1pmvpzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C672%2C4233%2C2244&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In this July 2020 photo, former president Donald Trump stands at the Mount Rushmore National Memorial in South Dakota. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Is former president Donald Trump feeling anything like the 19th century’s <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Simon-Bolivar">Simon Bolivar</a> in Gabriel Garcia Marquez’s <a href="https://www.publishersweekly.com/978-0-394-58258-0"><em>The General in His Labyrinth</em></a>? </p>
<p>The ailing and failing South American “liberator” is described in the novel as a man “shaken by the overwhelming revelation that the headlong race between his misfortunes and his dreams was at the moment reaching the finish line … ‘Dammit,’ he sighed. ‘How will I ever get out of this labyrinth?’” </p>
<p>Trump is certainly dealing with multiple misfortunes, including the unique ordeal of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-55656219">a second impeachment trial</a> (despite his acquittal), the humiliation of an election loss, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/riot-lawsuit-just-part-of-trumps-post-impeachment-problems">hydra-headed lawsuits on the horizon</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2020/10/19/trump-will-have-900-million-of-loans-coming-due-in-his-second-term-if-hes-reelected/">looming loan payments</a> that may shake the Jenga towers of Trump’s enterprises. </p>
<p>What’s this former president to do?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/20/politics/trump-cpac-republican-party/index.html">We may find out soon when Trump addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference, known as CPAC, this weekend</a>. He will reportedly talk about the future of the Republican Party — and his role in it.</p>
<h2>How early former presidents kept busy</h2>
<p>How have other former presidents occupied their time? </p>
<p>Even though Trump’s interest in history is limited (he has, after all, spoken as if Frederick Douglass <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/02/02/politics/donald-trump-frederick-douglass">is still alive</a> and suggested that the <a href="https://time.com/5620936/donald-trump-revolutionary-war-airports/">Continental Army captured airports during the American Revolution</a>), the lessons and patterns of the past might nonetheless help him think productively about the next chapter of his life. </p>
<p>Founding Father presidents — George Washington, John Adams and Thomas Jefferson — all retired productively to private life after leaving office. Plantation and farm management filled many days; Trump’s business interests might become a 21st century counterpart. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385578/original/file-20210222-19-14bmk3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign on a white clapboard carriage house reads Adams Homestead, Erected 1717" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385578/original/file-20210222-19-14bmk3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385578/original/file-20210222-19-14bmk3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385578/original/file-20210222-19-14bmk3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385578/original/file-20210222-19-14bmk3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385578/original/file-20210222-19-14bmk3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385578/original/file-20210222-19-14bmk3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385578/original/file-20210222-19-14bmk3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sign on a carriage house commemorates the 304-year-old John Adams homestead in Newington, N.H.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Adams and Jefferson also savoured the longer hours available for ongoing studies in philosophy, religion and history. Jefferson enjoyed applying his interest in science to crops at his <a href="https://www.monticello.org/slavery-at-monticello/life-monticello-plantation/living-monticello-plantation">Monticello plantation in Virginia</a> — and <a href="https://www.virginia.edu/aboutuva">founded the University of Virginia</a>. </p>
<p>Adams and Jefferson also indulged in vast correspondence, <a href="http://nationalhumanitiescenter.org/pds/livingrev/religion/text3/adamsjeffersoncor.pdf">including thoughtful exchanges with each other</a>. The second president’s letters could be eloquently cranky about his fellow men (“human reason and human conscience … are not a match for human passion, human imaginations, and human enthusiasm”); he was also appealingly self-deprecating (“I drop into myself, and acknowledge myself to be a fool.”).</p>
<p>The second president’s son, John Quincy Adams, charted a different course after losing the bitterly fought 1828 election to Andrew Jackson. Rejecting retirement to Massachusetts, he served nine terms in the House of Representatives. <a href="https://history.house.gov/Historical-Highlights/1800-1850/The-death-of-Representative-John-Quincy-Adams-of-Massachusetts/">He even died there</a> — in the speaker’s room, after collapsing during a debate — ending a post-White House career in which he became one of the most prominent anti-slavery voices in the country.</p>
<p>Ulysses S. Grant also travelled his own road, literally. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385576/original/file-20210222-13-1p5pjbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A full-sized statue of Gen. Ulysses S. Grant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385576/original/file-20210222-13-1p5pjbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385576/original/file-20210222-13-1p5pjbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385576/original/file-20210222-13-1p5pjbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385576/original/file-20210222-13-1p5pjbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385576/original/file-20210222-13-1p5pjbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1106&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385576/original/file-20210222-13-1p5pjbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1106&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385576/original/file-20210222-13-1p5pjbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1106&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A full-sized statue of Gen. Ulysses S. Grant, stylized from a photograph, in the Ulysses S. Grant Presidential Library in Mississippi.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>He and his wife took two years <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/grant-tour/">to tour the globe</a>, with the hero of the Civil War feted everywhere. There was tea at Windsor Castle (where Queen Victoria found Julia Grant “civil and complimentary in her funny American way”) and <a href="https://www.historynet.com/encounter-ulysses-s-grant-talks-war-otto-von-bismarck.htm">hours of talk with Otto von Bismarck</a> after Grant simply knocked at his front door.</p>
<p>When crowds welcomed him home, the former president made a third run for the White House — <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/-if-any-outsider-is-taken-i-hope-it-will-be-garfield-the-1880-republican-convention.htm">but was out-maneuvered at the 1880 Republican convention by James A. Garfield</a>. Grant’s last years were then spent battling financial difficulties and cancer, with Samuel Clemens — more commonly known as Mark Twain — coaxing him into writing the money-making volumes <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/4367/4367-h/4367-h.htm">that remain a masterpiece among presidential memoirs.</a></p>
<h2>Modern former presidents</h2>
<p>The 20th century offers more models. </p>
<p>Theodore Roosevelt’s post-presidential career stands out for drama. After William Howard Taft was inaugurated, Roosevelt led a big game hunting expedition to Africa for the Smithsonian Institution and New York’s Museum of Natural History. <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/teddy-roosevelts-epic-strangely-altruistic-hunt-white-rhino-180958626/">His safari party tallied 11,400 kills, including six white rhinos</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trump stands in front of a painting of Theodore Roosevelt" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385581/original/file-20210222-13-yrbjm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385581/original/file-20210222-13-yrbjm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385581/original/file-20210222-13-yrbjm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385581/original/file-20210222-13-yrbjm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385581/original/file-20210222-13-yrbjm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385581/original/file-20210222-13-yrbjm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385581/original/file-20210222-13-yrbjm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this December 2018 photo, Trump stands in front of a painting of former U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt in the Roosevelt Room of the White House.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Like Grant before him, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/roosevelt/life-after-the-presidency">Roosevelt kept travelling</a>, spending months in Europe meeting monarchs and government leaders. And like Grant, welcoming crowds at home rekindled political appetites. As with Grant, again, that did not go well. </p>
<p>Styling himself a progressive “bull moose,” <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/teddy-roosevelt-nominated-as-bull-moose-candidate">Roosevelt forged a third party</a> when the 1912 Republican convention renominated Taft. <a href="https://rmc.library.cornell.edu/vote/1912/index.html">A three-way electoral split</a> then gave Woodrow Wilson the White House with 42 per cent of the popular vote.</p>
<p>Taft moved from the 1912 melee to a John Quincy Adams-like future. After taking up a Yale law professorship, <a href="https://www.biography.com/us-president/william-howard-taft">he was appointed chief justice of the Supreme Court in 1921</a>.</p>
<h2>Memoirs, libraries</h2>
<p>By the mid-20th century, post-White House life had some common themes. Beginning with Harry Truman, each president — John F. Kennedy tragically excepted — opted to produce best-selling memoirs and to help build presidential libraries, repressing impulses to resuscitate their political careers.</p>
<p>Some prioritized relaxation while writing. Dwight Eisenhower, for example, spent time golfing, fishing and playing bridge (which had already been a regular features of his time in the White House).</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vglwPqaDFVo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Eisenhower took to golf after he left the White House. Courtesy the World Golf Hall of Fame.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some had limited options because of declining health (<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1973/07/the-last-days-of-the-president/376281/">Lyndon Johnson’s heart problems</a>, <a href="https://www.today.com/health/25-years-ago-president-ronald-reagan-announced-his-alzheimer-s-t166960">Ronald Reagan’s Alzheimer’s</a>). One — Richard Nixon — turned his traditional hard work habits toward reputation rehabilitation, <a href="https://geraldrfordfoundation.org/kasey-pipes-the-resurrection-of-richard-nixon-our-elder-statesman/">using expansive writing to gain elder statesman status</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385597/original/file-20210222-13-wojd5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Jimmy Carter smiles" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385597/original/file-20210222-13-wojd5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385597/original/file-20210222-13-wojd5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385597/original/file-20210222-13-wojd5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385597/original/file-20210222-13-wojd5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385597/original/file-20210222-13-wojd5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385597/original/file-20210222-13-wojd5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385597/original/file-20210222-13-wojd5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this November 2019 photo, former President Jimmy Carter teaches Sunday school at Maranatha Baptist Church in Plains, Ga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Amis)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several have channelled energy and stature into creating new mechanisms for public service — for example, Jimmy Carter’s <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/peace/conflict_resolution/index.html">Conflict Resolution Program</a> and work for <a href="https://www.habitat.org/volunteer/build-events/carter-work-project">Habitat for Humanity</a> and the <a href="https://www.clintonfoundation.org/">Clinton Foundation</a> founded by Bill Clinton. </p>
<p>In the end, of course, Trump will devise his own unique post-presidency career — likely as unconventional and perhaps as troubling as his White House years. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/24/business/mar-a-lago-donald-trump-guests/index.html">There is grumbling and fuming</a> in his Mar-a-Lago labyrinth right now, but Trump is certainly seeking an escape that Bolivar could not find.</p>
<p>There will be golf, of course, à la Eisenhower. There will probably be a memoir, though a ghost writer may emerge battered from drafting sessions with a Trump accustomed to lobbing tweet-sized poison darts.</p>
<p>Most importantly, there will likely be Trump “big bang” efforts — Teddy Roosevelt-esque incursions into the 2024 election, rallies during which he can strut his stand-up routines, <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-fox-news-digital-media-competitor-25afddee-144d-4820-8ed4-9eb0ffa42420.html">perhaps a cable network launch to outfox an insufficiently obsequious Fox</a>. </p>
<p>Whatever Trump’s approach to his post-White House life, there is bound to be some of the miasma Garcia Marquez sensed around Bolivar: “A strange night … heavy with the weeping of orphans and the fragrance of decay.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155460/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ronald W. Pruessen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Donald Trump prepares to address the Conservative Political Action Conference, known as CPAC, here’s how other former presidents have occupied their time after leaving the White House.Ronald W. Pruessen, Professor of History, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1524672021-01-19T17:07:18Z2021-01-19T17:07:18ZWhat does the vice president do?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377391/original/file-20210106-17-lpwkss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5991%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's a top government job, but what does being vice president mean?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakHarris/56ef84b8246447418d250b158f225185/photo">AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Jan. 20, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/harris-makes-history-first-female-black-south-asian-american-vp-n1246916">Kamala Harris</a> will become vice president of the United States – the first woman, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-represents-an-opportunity-for-coalition-building-between-blacks-and-asian-americans-144547">first person of South Asian descent, and the first African American</a> to do so. Harris will also become the <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kamala-harris-on-being-a-graduate-from-a-historically-black-college-this-is-what-these-institutions-were-really-built-for-they-were-built-for-this-moment-11597258044">first</a> vice president to have graduated from a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/historically-black-colleges-and-universities">historically black college or university</a>.</p>
<p>Each of these achievements is significant in its own right. However, the vice presidency itself has traditionally been a relatively insignificant position, though the office has become more influential in recent years.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="John Adams" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Adams, the nation’s first vice president, called the job ‘the most insignificant Office.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gilbert_Stuart,_John_Adams,_c._1800-1815,_NGA_42933.jpg">Gilbert Stuart, National Gallery of Art via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘most insignificant’ office?</h2>
<p>The role of vice president is only mentioned in the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">U.S. Constitution</a> a handful of times. Article I, Section 3 says that the vice president “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-3-">shall be President of the Senate but shall have no Vote</a>” except in the event of a tie. Normally, ties are rare, but the vice president’s power to break them will likely become relevant to Harris as Democrats, and independents who caucus with Democrats, are expected to control only 50 of the 100 Senate seats.</p>
<p>The beginning of Article II, Section 1 explains how vice presidents are elected, which was later revised by the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxii">12th Amendment</a>. The end of that section states that presidential power “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-1--2">shall devolve on the Vice President</a>” in the event of the president’s “Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office.” Finally, Article II, Section 4 states that vice presidents – like presidents – can be “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-4--2">removed from Office</a> on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”</p>
<p>So, other than <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/1010.html">staying out of trouble</a> to avoid impeachment and waiting around for the president to <a href="https://tbsnews.net/world/what-happens-when-us-president-dies-or-incapacitated-141037">need a replacement</a>, vice presidents are really obligated only to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mike-pence-casts-tie-breaking-vote-confirm-betsy-devos-education-n717836">occasionally cast a tie-breaking vote</a>. This means that the great majority of the time, vice presidents have no real job to do.</p>
<p>John Adams, the first U.S. vice president, once complained to his wife that the vice presidency was “<a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Adams/04-09-02-0278">the most insignificant Office</a> that ever the Invention of Man contrived or his Imagination conceived.” However, not all have been upset about such inactivity. Woodrow Wilson’s vice president, Thomas Marshall, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/wilson-thomas-marshall/">quipped after he retired</a>: “I don’t want to work … [but] I wouldn’t mind being Vice President again.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Will Hays with Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Warren Harding, center, wanted his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, at right, to play an active role in governing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chairman-of-the-republican-national-committee-will-h-hays-news-photo/501167655">FPG/Keystone View Company/Archive Photos/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The evolution of the vice presidency</h2>
<p>Wilson’s successor as president, Warren Harding, had unconventional views about the importance of the role of the vice president. He thought that “<a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">the vice president should be more than a mere substitute in waiting</a>,” and he wished for his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, “to be a helpful part” of his administration. Coolidge later became the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/officers-staff/vice-president/VP_Calvin_Coolidge.htm">first vice president</a> in history to attend Cabinet meetings on a regular basis. </p>
<p>In 1923, Harding died of a <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/after-90-years-president-warren-hardings-death-still-unsettled">likely heart attack</a>, and Coolidge succeeded him as president. “My experience in the Cabinet,” <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">Coolidge later recalled</a>, “was of supreme value to me when I became President.”</p>
<p>After Harding and Coolidge, many later presidents reverted back to the tradition of keeping vice presidents an arm’s length away, even on key matters. Franklin D. Roosevelt, for instance, kept <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/manhattan-project">the atomic bomb</a> a secret from Vice President Harry S. Truman, who <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/profile/harry-truman">didn’t find out</a> about it until Roosevelt’s death.</p>
<p>For the 1960 presidential election, two-term Vice President Richard Nixon faced off against John F. Kennedy. At one point during the campaign, reporters asked then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower: “Can you think of a major contribution that Nixon has made to your administration?” Eisenhower replied: “<a href="https://www.virginiabusiness.com/article/how-many-u-s-vice-presidents-can-you-name/">Well, if you give me a week I might think of one</a>.” Nixon lost that election.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vice President Walter Mondale, right, was an active part of President Jimmy Carter’s administration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CarterMondale/160e66151d984d9fb00f4da936a7252f/photo">AP Photo/Harvey Georges</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1976, Jimmy Carter picked Walter Mondale as his running mate. In a memo sent to Carter after winning the election, Mondale argued that “[t]he <a href="http://www2.mnhs.org/library/findaids/00697/pdf/Mondale-CarterMemo.pdf">biggest single problem of our recent administrations</a> has been the failure of the President to be exposed to independent analysis not conditioned by what it is thought he wants to hear or often what others want him to hear.” Mondale’s vision for the role of vice president was “to offer impartial advice” so that Carter wouldn’t be “shielded from points of view that [he] should hear.” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/07/20/how-the-vice-president-became-a-powerful-and-influential-white-house-player/">Carter agreed</a> and subsequently made Mondale an integral part of his inner circle.</p>
<p>Many vice presidents since Mondale have often offered points of view that didn’t align with that of the president. Bill Clinton and Al Gore, for instance, <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2007/11/clinton200711">disagreed</a> over the amount of power and influence entrusted to first lady Hillary Clinton; they also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/20/us/once-close-to-clinton-gore-keeps-a-distance.html">disagreed</a> over the handling of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. George W. Bush and Dick Cheney <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2010/11/03/131035736/bush-considered-dropping-cheney-from-ticket-in-04">disagreed</a>, at times, over Iraq, as well as the use and nonuse of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jan/23/dick-cheney-george-bush-libby-pardon">presidential pardons</a>.</p>
<p>In contrast, Mike Pence has proved to be a <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2020/0826/Last-man-standing-How-Pence-s-loyalty-helped-him-survive">loyal ally</a> to a president who has a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/">track record</a> of being unwilling to listen to dissent.</p>
<p>In the wake of the Jan. 6 <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-it-a-coup-no-but-siege-on-us-capitol-was-the-election-violence-of-a-fragile-democracy-152803">insurrection</a>, Democrats <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/533112-first-gop-lawmaker-calls-for-invoking-25th-amendment-to-remove-trump">and even a few Republicans</a> called on Pence to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-does-the-25th-amendment-work-and-can-it-be-used-to-remove-trump-from-office-after-us-capitol-attack-152869">remove Trump from office</a> by invoking the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv">25th Amendment</a>. Pence ultimately <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/07/us/politics/pence-opposes-invoking-25th-amendment.html">avoided</a> taking <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/11/politics/trump-pence-25th-amendment/index.html">such action</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Vice President Mike Pence presides over the joint session of Congress reviewing Electoral College votes on Jan. 6, 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One key job of the vice president involves presiding over the process of counting Electoral College votes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-mike-pence-presides-over-a-joint-session-of-news-photo/1230451359">Saul Loeb/Pool/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘last voice in the room’</h2>
<p>Following Mondale’s model, when Joe Biden agreed to be Barack Obama’s running mate, he said that he wanted to be the “<a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2012-09-06-sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-bidenbre8850xj-20120906-story.html">last man in the room</a>” whenever important decisions where being made so he could give Obama his unfiltered opinion. </p>
<p>When Biden picked Harris as his running mate, he said he “asked Kamala to be the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-harris-make-appearance-historic-democratic-ticket/story?id=72327968">last voice in the room</a>,” to “[c]hallenge [his] assumptions if she disagrees,” and to “[a]sk the hard questions.” </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>As Harris begins her trailblazing term as a vice president of many firsts, she has an opportunity to either follow the past as a vice president who is largely ignored, to follow Pence as a deferential foot soldier, or to pick up Mondale’s mantle by making sure that the president isn’t shielded from points of view that he should hear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152467/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Holzer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The vice president may be second in line for the most powerful job in the nation, but there isn’t necessarily a lot to do besides wait – unless the president wants another adviser.Joshua Holzer, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Westminster CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1515342020-12-11T05:42:18Z2020-12-11T05:42:18ZBiden’s chance to revive US tradition of inserting ethics in foreign policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374266/original/file-20201210-18-1mfkggs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4486%2C2991&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Biden's is entrusting Secretary of State nominee Antony Blinken to set U.S. foreign policy on a different course.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/secretary-of-state-nominee-antony-blinken-speaks-after-news-photo/1229769415?adppopup=true">Mark Makela/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump’s foreign policy has, in the judgment of many analysts, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/760b6144-a740-11ea-92e2-cbd9b7e28ee6">damaged U.S. moral standing</a> around the world. During four years of “America First,” the Trump administration has gotten cozy with governments that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14754835.2020.1809362">disdain human rights norms and laws</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-muslim-travel-ban-immigration-6ce8554f-05bd-467b-b3c2-ea4876f7773a.html">restricted immigration on the basis of religion</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117820965656">withdrawn from treaties</a> aimed to bolster international well-being.</p>
<p>Joe Biden has <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/17/trump-biden-battle-for-blue-collar-voters-will-revive-trade-debate-192270">promised to set a different course</a>, to “reclaim” America’s “position as the moral and economic leader of the world.” Doing so might be vital as the U.S. competes for international influence against rival powers China and Russia.</p>
<p>What strikes me, <a href="https://www.bu.edu/polisci/people/faculty/mayers/">a scholar of history and foreign policy</a>, is that this Biden orientation aligns with one of the vivid strands in U.S. tradition: to apply American versions of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness in the conception and implementation of foreign policy. This <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-needs-american-idealism-again-11605882637">American “idealism”</a> has not only fortified U.S. security, but has also helped smooth the jagged edges of international politics. </p>
<h2>Society of nations</h2>
<p>Washington has periodically tried over the decades to improve the quality and tone of the “international society” – defined by <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/bull-hedley-norman-175">scholar Hedley Bull</a> as the common set of rules, both informal and codified, <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-349-24028-9">by which states are bound</a>.</p>
<p>Less coherent or robust than domestic structures of laws and norms, “international society” has been, and remains, a fragile and somewhat amorphous concept. Yet, as theorized by scholars like Bull, “international society” has always had a tangible aspect. It draws states into occasional cooperation, mediated by treaties, laws, diplomatic traditions, customs and transnational institutions. </p>
<p>In contrast, the current administration has used foreign policy as a tool for a narrowly defined transactional national interest, in accordance with Trump’s “America First” agenda.</p>
<p>But a more elevated approach appears throughout U.S. history.</p>
<p>Francis Lieber numbered among the <a href="http://doi.org/10.1093/law/9780199599752.003.0058">earlier proponents of practices</a> to mitigate wartime suffering. A German-American political-legal thinker, Lieber advanced ideas in the 1860s regarding the humane treatment of enemy prisoners and wounded soldiers.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Blowing bubbles – a cartoonist’s verdict on Woodrow Wilson’s attempt at international cooperation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/blowing-bubbles-woodrow-wilson-and-the-league-of-nations-news-photo/1175739672?adppopup=true">Fine Art Images/Heritage Images via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the 20th century, attempts to bring ethics into foreign policy were made by successive U.S. presidents. President Woodrow Wilson in 1919 <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1914-1920/league">promoted the League of Nations</a>, which he conceived as an institutional guarantor of world order and peace. And American diplomats played a prominent role in the 1928 outlawing of war through the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1921-1936/kellogg">quixotic Kellogg-Briand Pact</a>.</p>
<p>President Franklin Roosevelt in January 1941 asserted that people everywhere were entitled to four fundamental freedoms – freedom of speech, freedom of worship, freedom from want and freedom from fear. He later proved an <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9780230609389">insistent and effective advocate for creating the United Nations</a>.</p>
<p>This desire to improve the tone and quality of “international society” persisted into the post-World War II era. <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/nuremberg-judges/">American jurists were involved</a> in the Nuremberg inquests into Nazi atrocities. The trials were in large part convened to salvage and reassert the meaningfulness of civilized standards of conduct in world affairs.</p>
<p>Former first lady Eleanor Roosevelt played a leading role in the formulation of the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/">1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights</a>. And <a href="https://news.un.org/en/tags/raphael-lemkin">Raphael Lemkin</a>, a Polish-born Jewish lawyer who found permanent refuge in the United States, became the main architect of the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide-convention.shtml">1948 Genocide Convention</a>.</p>
<h2>Kissinger to Carter</h2>
<p>In recent decades, the most lucid expression by a president on ethics and foreign policy came from Jimmy Carter. To help expunge the stain of the Vietnam War and counter the influence of <a href="https://www.henryakissinger.com/">former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s</a> stark <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2016/03/16/book-review-realpolitik-a-history-by-john-bew/">realpolitik</a>, Carter <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7709.2004.00400.x">promoted human rights as a U.S. foreign policy goal</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger (left) and President Jimmy Carter talk in the White House's Oval Office, Washington DC, August 15, 1977" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two very different approaches to foreign policy: Kissinger and Carter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-us-secretary-of-state-henry-kissinger-and-president-news-photo/1287669399?adppopup=true">Benjamin E. 'Gene' Forte/CNP/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to Carter, and echoing the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7709.2004.00400.x">human rights included both political and material rights</a>. On the political side, this meant the right to be free from abuse and torture, arbitrary arrest, random imprisonment or denial of a fair public trial. In the Carter definition, human rights also encompassed religious freedom, freedom of speech, freedom of press and access to education. On the material side, human rights entailed fulfillment of basics, notably food, shelter, decent employment and health care.</p>
<p>To Carter, U.S. policy needed to be “rooted in our moral values” and “<a href="https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/short-history/carter">designed to serve mankind</a>.” In practical terms this meant an end to ignoring human rights transgressions by allies, as in the case of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09592290903577775">South Africa’s apartheid regime</a>, and terminating U.S. military support of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1979/02/09/us-retaliates-against-somoza-cuts-back-aidus-cuts-back-aid-to-nicaragua/0dedf7f9-6dbc-401c-9101-e5c4479d19e1/">Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza</a>.</p>
<p>Albeit <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137598738_1">ridiculed by “realist” skeptics at the time</a> and later for amounting to empty piety, or dismissed by others as merely cloaking the structures of power, these proclamations and actions – from Lieber to Carter – nonetheless <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/3791726">helped create the modern international order</a>. Collectively, they constitute the intermittent triumph of hopefulness against despair and infamy. </p>
<h2>Retreat from the world</h2>
<p>The disorientation and anxiety caused by the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks led to a U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316493939">retreat from building a world order</a> that, however partial and imperfectly realized, had stimulated the moral imagination of many Americans. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/iraq-and-afghanistan-the-us-6-trillion-bill-for-americas-longest-war-is-unpaid-78241">wars in Iraq and Afghanistan</a> – and by extension, drone attacks in Pakistan – inflicted devastation and disruption incompatible with America’s alleged mission, namely promoting the welfare of people in those afflicted countries and safeguarding U.S. safety. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2004/05/10/torture-at-abu-ghraib">horrors of Abu Ghraib</a> and the <a href="https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/handle/2152/28112">rendition of prisoners to secret sites</a> where they endured water boarding and other torture caused the United States to forfeit much of the good will it had accumulated over decades.</p>
<p>This diminished U.S. stature was compounded under Trump by the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/21/us/migrant-children-separated.html">spectacle of children being separated from parents</a> along the Southern border and by moves to disengage from the international community – such as <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31527-0/fulltext">withdrawing from the World Health Organization</a> and the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-exits-paris-climate-accord-after-trump-stalls-global-warming-action-for-four-years/">Paris climate agreement</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Biden’s administration faces the daunting task of rehabilitating U.S. standing. In the ongoing competitions for influence and power between America, China and Russia, the retrieval of U.S. ethical traditions may prove vital.</p>
<p>Incoming <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/22/us/politics/biden-antony-blinken-secretary-of-state.html">Secretary of State Antony Blinken</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/27/jake-sullivan-biden-national-security-440814">National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan</a> and <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/529402-gumbo-diplomacy-and-the-rise-of-linda-thomas-greenfield">Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield</a> appear determined to rebuild America’s reputation. Their success or failure could affect not only U.S. well-being but also the character of “international society” for coming decades. Moderation, restraint and ethical clarity have been in short supply since 2001, but they might be replenished if the Biden team dips back into America’s tradition of inserting an ethical component in foreign policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151534/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Mayers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Four years of ‘America First’ has seen the US retreat from the world. But as a scholar of international relations explains, Biden could return Washington to the role of a more moral global leader.David Mayers, Professor of History and Political Science, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1505062020-12-04T13:28:14Z2020-12-04T13:28:14ZHow Hanukkah came to be an annual White House celebration<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372888/original/file-20201203-15-15vjmd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C39%2C3747%2C2459&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Donald Trump speaks during a Hanukkah reception at the White House in 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TrumpHanukkah/a1da70611d804af38115d0f2d980ec12/photo?Query=white%20house%20hanukkah%20trump&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=58&currentItemNo=7">AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-throwing-in-person-white-house-hanukkah-party-despite-covid-concerns/">President Trump’s plan of holding an in-person Hanukkah reception</a> at the White House on Dec. 9, despite concerns over the coronavirus, is getting much attention on social media. </p>
<p>Some asked whether anyone would be reckless enough to attend, observing that an in-person party, amid the COVID-19 surge, could turn out to be another superspreader event. Others wondered who would be invited, recalling that President Trump, in the past, limited his invitation list to supporters, and why the event was being held on that date. The eight-day festival of Hanukkah, regulated by the Jewish lunar calendar, begins this year on the night of Dec. 10. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1330913002317635585"}"></div></p>
<p>Overlooked amid these questions is one that to me, as a <a href="https://www.brandeis.edu/hornstein/sarna/index.html">historian of American Jewish life and a scholar of American religion</a>, seems far more fascinating and important. How did the office of the president of the United States come to hold an official White House Hanukkah party in the first place? </p>
<h2>White House traditions</h2>
<p>For most of American history, the only December holiday that <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/press-room/press-backgrounders/white-house-christmas-traditions">gained White House recognition</a> was Christmas. President John Adams and first lady Abigail Adams, back in 1800, threw the first White House Christmas party, a modest affair, planned with their four-year-old granddaughter in mind, and with invitations sent to selected government officials and their children. </p>
<p>In 1923, President Calvin Coolidge inaugurated the <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/a-coolidge-christmas">practice of lighting an official White House Christmas tree</a>. He also delivered the first formal presidential Christmas message. His message assumed, as most Americans of that time did, that everybody celebrated Christmas. </p>
<p>It displayed, according to <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1352/WHITE_HOUSE_CAROLS_AND_BRILLIA.pdf">The Washington Post</a>, “the reverence of a Christian people giving at the seat of their government the expression of their praise for ‘the King of kings’ on the eve of the anniversary of His birth.” Neither Adams nor Coolidge uttered one word about Hanukkah. </p>
<p>Official notice of Hanukkah waited another half-century – until 1979 – by which time Jews had become much more visible as members of American society and government. Ironically, the president who first <a href="http://mallhistory.org/items/show/525">paid attention to Hanukkah was Jimmy Carter</a>, although he wasn’t the Jewish community’s favorite Democratic candidate. When he ran for reelection in 1980, he got <a href="https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-voting-record-in-u-s-presidential-elections">less than 50%</a> of the Jewish vote – less than any Democrat since 1928. </p>
<p>In 1979, following weeks of seclusion in the White House after Iranian students took over the U.S. embassy in Tehran seizing 52 diplomats and citizens, President Carter emerged and crossed over to Lafayette Park. He <a href="http://mallhistory.org/items/show/525">lit the large Hanukkah candelabrum</a>, dubbed the “National Menorah,” <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/why-theres-30-foot-menorah-national-mall-180961553/">erected in the park with private funds</a> and delivered brief remarks. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372631/original/file-20201202-13-8slr2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372631/original/file-20201202-13-8slr2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372631/original/file-20201202-13-8slr2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372631/original/file-20201202-13-8slr2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372631/original/file-20201202-13-8slr2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372631/original/file-20201202-13-8slr2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372631/original/file-20201202-13-8slr2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372631/original/file-20201202-13-8slr2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The lighting ceremony of the National Hanukkah Menorah, at the Ellipse, near the White House, in 2008.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MenorahLighting/90f1d602ce634eef8ff66f1c25aa48d0/photo?Query=menorah%20white%20house&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=101&currentItemNo=17">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Seeing that Jews celebrate their own holiday in December – not Christmas but Hanukkah – he directed his <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/There_Really_Is_a_Santa_Claus/6rAc9xM5VqYC?hl=en&gbpv=0">next annual Christmas message</a> only “to those of our fellow citizens who join us in the joyous celebration of Christmas.” </p>
<p>Every president since has recognized Hanukkah with a special menorah-lighting ceremony, and limited his Christmas messages to those who actually observe the holiday.</p>
<h2>Menorah lightings</h2>
<p>Hanukkah came to the White House itself, in 1989, when <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/president/holiday/hanukkah/">President George H.W. Bush displayed a menorah</a> there, a candelabrum given to him by the Synagogue Council of America. </p>
<p>But Bill Clinton was the first president to actually light a menorah in the White House. In 1993, he invited a dozen schoolchildren to the Oval Office for a small ceremony. The event made headlines when <a href="https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/os-xpm-1993-12-09-9312090779-story.html">6-year-old Ilana Kattan’s ponytail dipped into the flame</a> and a wisp of smoke was visible around her head. Clinton was reported to have gently rubbed her ponytail with his fingers.</p>
<p>Menorah lightings grew in prominence during the Clinton years. Memorably, in 1998, Clinton <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/president/holiday/hanukkah/">joined Israel’s then-President Ezer Weizman</a> in lighting a candle on the first night of Hanukkah in Jerusalem. </p>
<p>But no White House Hanukkah parties ever took place under Clinton. Instead, he included Jewish leaders in a large annual “holiday party.” </p>
<h2>Annual Hanukkah parties</h2>
<p>The first president to host an official White House Hanukkah party, and the first to actually light a menorah in the White House residence and not just in its public spaces, was <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?167772-1/hanukkah-menorah-lighting">George W. Bush, beginning in both cases in 2001</a>.</p>
<p>Since Bush made a point of inserting religion, complete with baby Jesus, into his many annual Christmas parties, he sought to underscore through the Hanukkah party that, <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/12/20011210-7.html">as he explained</a>, the White House “belongs to people of all faiths.” Since then Hanukkah has become an official White House tradition. </p>
<p>Hasidic leaders in the distinctive black suits worn by members of their community regularly appeared at these parties. Beginning in 2005 the <a href="https://www.insider.com/white-house-hanukkah-party-history-how-it-began#the-white-house-kitchen-was-made-kosher-for-the-occasion-starting-in-2005-7">parties became completely kosher</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C64%2C2502%2C1600&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C64%2C2502%2C1600&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372632/original/file-20201202-15-106hf2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Barack Obama at the annual Hanukkah reception in the White House in 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ObamaHanukkah/88ffacdd25304636bef6e2162e018d7a/photo?Query=hanukkah%20white%20house&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=216&currentItemNo=13">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Barack Obama maintained the tradition of the White House Hanukkah party, holding two of them in 2013, and Donald Trump maintained the tradition as well. Both in 2018 and 2019, he also held <a href="https://www.jta.org/2018/12/07/united-states/trumps-hanukkah-parties-celebrate-his-decision-to-move-the-israel-embassy">two Hanukkah parties</a> for his friends and Jewish family members – including his daughter, Ivanka – and invited selected non-Jewish guests to attend them. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>The fact that this year, amid COVID-19 concerns and a presidential transition, the White House is planning just one Hanukkah party, has pruned the guest list and will <a href="https://www.jta.org/quick-reads/trumps-white-house-is-throwing-an-in-person-hanukkah-party">hold the event on Dec. 9, before Hanukkah starts</a>, remains noteworthy. </p>
<p>What is truly significant, however, is how much America has changed since Presidents John Adams and Calvin Coolidge invented America’s White House Christmas traditions and paid no attention to Hanukkah at all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan D. Sarna does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For much of American history, the only December holiday to be recognized in the White House was Christmas, but menorah lightings are now an annual tradition.Jonathan D. Sarna, University Professor and Joseph H. & Belle R. Braun Professor of American Jewish History, Brandeis UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1497912020-11-11T16:55:33Z2020-11-11T16:55:33ZAlistair Cooke: Letter from America may be long gone, but it still speaks to this US election<p>Such has been the drama of the 2020 US election and its aftermath that opportunities for reflection have been in short supply. The BBC’s Today programme tried gamely to fill the gap providing two minutes of space for James Naughtie to ruminate on the election.</p>
<p>But how would veteran BBC journalist, the late Alistair Cooke, have observed the psychodrama of Donald Trump in his White House bunker? Naughtie was a great admirer of Cooke – presenting a tribute to him in 2008 to mark what would have been Cooke’s 100th birthday, where he eulogised about Cooke’s entwined metaphors and his commitment to language, to explain and to describe. </p>
<p>Indeed, Cooke’s personal approach to journalism was, at the time, a departure from the more formal language and structure of other commentators.</p>
<p>While there are many sources for us to learn about the US now, it’s worth considering the influence Cooke had in how people in Britain saw America, over nearly six decades. Cooke’s Letter from America radio programmes (which went out on BBC Radio’s Home and World services) remain the longest-running speech programme hosted by one individual, consisting of 2,869 broadcasts made between 1946 and 2004.</p>
<p>Cooke wanted to explain the US to British listeners through his Letters, making the country more accessible to an audience that, particularly in the early days, had few other sources of information to help them understand US culture and politics. </p>
<p>Amid the blaze of coverage of Trump’s downfall on both legacy and new media, listening back to Cooke’s broadcasts about the demise and defeat of previous US presidents recalls a kind of journalism rarely seen, or indeed heard, in contemporary broadcasting. It’s fascinating – and often very funny. </p>
<p>In a 1979 Letter, Cooke compared the American and British experience of electioneering – talking of his astonishment coming back to Britain 20 years earlier to cover an election to find no motorcades, skywriting aeroplanes or posters with slogans such as “Eden Is Leadin’” (referring to Anthony Eden, prime minister from 1955 to 1957). </p>
<p>The drama of rallies with the post-war Labour prime minister Clement Attlee, Cooke recalled, were the sort you might muster in the US “for a particularly heated parent-teacher meeting”.</p>
<p>But he also had shrewd insights, based on his decades of reporting. In the same Letter he mused on the increasing public relations aspect of politicking. “Mr Nixon,” he noted, was “the first American to be convinced that Richard Nixon as God created him was not quite right for exposure to the multitude.” Nixon subjected himself to a makeover by advertisers – something that Cooke concluded became a Faustian pact as Nixon became trapped by the image.</p>
<p>While contemporary commentators have tried to analyse what led to Biden’s victory and Trump’s defeat, Cooke was there before them in working out what could go wrong for a one-term incumbent. Musing on Jimmy Carter’s defeat by Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election he said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Instead of doing what Franklin Roosevelt did in four elections, never mentioning the name of his opponent, [Carter] decided to make Ronald Reagan and his character the issue. The tactic backfired. The actual sight of Reagan in the debate obliterated the nuclear button-pressing Dr Strangelove of Mr Carter’s fancy.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If Trump had perhaps taken the time to go back to these Letters, he might have learned from Carter’s mistakes and rethought his constant attacks on “Sleepy Joe”.</p>
<h2>Changing world</h2>
<p>What is also different about Cooke’s reporting from today is the way his own experience is an essential part of the narrative. For example, Cooke’s letter about Bill Clinton’s defeat of George H.W. Bush in 1992 shows the manner in which Cooke reflects on both his own character as well as his work as a journalist. Listeners were treated to a very particular view drawn from Cooke’s experience living among the New York elite, a subjective gaze of the personal viewpoint.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"712971814364975104"}"></div></p>
<p>In the early part of that Letter, Cooke described his posting to the US and being “slightly disturbed that I was going to have to move myself and my family to Washington,” when he was appointed chief US correspondent of The Guardian. He was very relieved when his editor gave him permission to stay in New York because, he said, it was “the best news base and the best home base for travel”.</p>
<p>In the latter part of the same letter, analysing why Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush, Cooke brings himself into the story by describing himself, revealing his attitudes and biases:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I am – my generation are – probably more at home with WASPs and a Catholic friend or two than with the polyglot white, black, Latino, brown, Asian, multicultural society that America has increasingly become. But Clinton reached out to it… This was never clearer than on Thursday morning, when the New York Times carried a front-page photograph … Clinton in jeans, worn jeans of course, a check wool shirt… Not a suit, not a neck-tie, not a button-shirt in sight. “Well,” I said to my wife, “can you believe this, there is the next president of the United States and his buddies.” “He,” said my wife sternly, “is the president of those people and he dresses like them.” Quite right. Along with the passing of George Bush, we shall see, I fear, the passing of the blue blazer.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Cooke’s personal reporting in the Letters meant not only that they could be compelling listening, but they created a new style of reporting in which his viewpoint became the dominant way many elite listeners understood radio. While mainstream media may have dispensed with this style of reporting on their bulletins, he presaged a now-popular media form.</p>
<p>Listening back to Letters from America, they may not resemble modern Radio 4 reporting, but they recall successful new forms, such as the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p07h19zz">BBC’s Americast</a> or <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/specials/politics/elections-101">CNN’s Election 101</a>. Alistair Cooke may not have been the inventor, but he can at least be cast as the forerunner of the political podcast.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149791/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glenda Cooper receives funding from the British Academy
She has also secured special permission from both the BBC (who own the copyright) to examine the broadcasts and from the Cooke family estate (who own the copyright) to analyse the transcripts and publish extracts from them.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Howard Tumber receives funding from the British Academy. He has also secured special permission from both the BBC (who own the copyright) to examine the broadcasts and from the Cooke family estate (who own the copyright) to analyse the transcripts and publish extracts from them.</span></em></p>The veteran British journalist explained America to English-speaking listeners around the world.Glenda Cooper, Senior Lecturer in Journalism, City, University of LondonHoward Tumber, Professor of Journalism and Communication, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1484132020-11-03T13:29:35Z2020-11-03T13:29:35ZElection night has been a big media event since electric lights first announced the winner in 1892<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366876/original/file-20201101-19-11t9jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2992%2C2350&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Journalists, like these Associated Press staffers, have always worked hard to report election results quickly – and accurately.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APStaffNY/d1576168a56d43f2b06bc3b2e1f6cb48/photo">AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As election night approaches, Americans will turn to their televisions, computers and smartphones to watch results come in for local, state and national races. Over the years, news coverage of winners and losers has become must-watch programming – even if it is, as longtime NBC election-coverage producer Reuven Frank put it in 1991, “<a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/out-of-thin-air-an-insiders-history-of-network-news/oclc/1150953097">a TV show about adding</a>.”</p>
<p>The main goal of journalists on election night was – and is – to be the first to correctly declare the winner. It’s an attitude driven by the public’s interest in quick results, supercharged by journalistic competition.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xmfzsucAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I</a> have been <a href="https://mediaschool.indiana.edu/people/profile.html?p=mtconway">studying journalism history</a> for more than 20 years and before that worked in newsrooms on election night for almost as long. Through experience and research, I know the rush to announce a winner didn’t start with the internet – or television or radio, for that matter. </p>
<p>The public, especially the sector deeply interested in politics, has always wanted to know the results as soon as possible. Another standard of election night, at least in the past century, is that the journalists announce a winner in the presidential race well before all the votes are counted – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-formally-declares-the-winner-of-the-us-presidential-election-145212">weeks before the results are formally certified</a>. </p>
<p>Election night 2020 may be very different.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crowd in Chicago" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 1920, a crowd gathered in downtown Chicago to watch election returns projected on the large screen in the rear of this photograph.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-a-crowd-watching-election-returns-on-the-night-at-news-photo/567441627">Chicago Sun-Times/Chicago Daily News collection/Chicago History Museum/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The spectacle of election night</h2>
<p>Starting in the late 1800s and continuing well into the next century, New York newspapers used a vast array of floodlights, magic lantern displays, stereopticon projections, and other dazzling visual pyrotechnics to announce results on election night. </p>
<p>In 1892, The New York Herald and the New York World newspapers, as well as the Chicago Herald, used a variety of lighting techniques to signify state and national results in incumbent President Benjamin Harrison’s race against former President Grover Cleveland. The New York Herald used a searchlight at Madison Square Garden and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/when-old-technologies-were-new-9780195063417">pointed it toward Brooklyn</a> to announce Cleveland’s victory. While these effects were designed to announce the winner before the next edition of the paper, the visual displays also drew crowds, turning election night into an <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/when-old-technologies-were-new-9780195063417">entertainment event</a>.</p>
<p>In 1904, when The New York Times moved its offices to a new location dubbed “Times Square,” the paper ramped up the election night spectacles and also added a ball drop on New Year’s Eve. In 1928, just in time for Herbert Hoover’s election, the Times unveiled the “zipper,” a lighted electronic sign with 4-foot-high scrolling letters that circled the building with the latest information. </p>
<p>Media historian Dale Cressman considered the quarter-million-dollar sign a combination of “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00947679.2018.12059181">newspaper promotion, competition, and the desire to be first</a>.” For more than 30 years, the Times zipper displayed election night results and other major news stories.</p>
<h2>Broadcasting the election results</h2>
<p>Eight years before the Times zipper, newspapers in Detroit and Pittsburgh, as well as in other locations, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-broadcasting-transformed-politics-the-first-100-years-148143">took to the radio airwaves to announce</a> Warren <a href="https://www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/14882.html">Harding’s election as president</a>. By 1932, the radio networks relayed Franklin D. Roosevelt’s victory over incumbent Herbert Hoover to the <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/now-the-news/9780231044035">more than 60% of American households</a> that had radios.</p>
<p>After World War II, television took over the role of getting preliminary election results out to the public as quickly as possible.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign and TV in Times Square on election night, 1948" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Harry Truman is visible on a large TV screen showing voting returns in Times Square on election night 1948.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-elevated-night-view-of-people-gathered-in-times-square-news-photo/538789571">PhotoQuest/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Throughout the broadcast era, the television networks considered the political conventions and election nights as their most visible and important broadcasts every four years. They unveiled new equipment and visual imagery, graduating from writing numbers on a blackboard to lighted signs, and when color television finally caught on, using different colors to signify Republicans or Democrats. The networks also added computers and the latest prediction methods with the determination to announce the winner first, for ratings and bragging rights.</p>
<p>Since the networks were relying on prediction, and not the actual counted votes to determine the winner, the moment that came to symbolize the end of presidential election was the concession speech. That was especially true in such close elections as the one in 1948, when <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-miscalls-and-landslides-unforeseen-the-exceptional-catalog-of-polling-failure-146959">Harry Truman beat Thomas Dewey</a>. In 1960 the telling moment came the day after Election Day, when Richard Nixon gave a concession speech, congratulating John F. Kennedy on his victory. </p>
<p>The networks used the speech to confirm their prediction, and the losing candidate used the speech to symbolize the peaceful acceptance of the public’s will, even though that act had no official role in determining the winner. </p>
<h2>Speedy results</h2>
<p>Throughout the rest of the 20th century, vote counting sped up while pollsters and other analysts came up with more intricate ways to predict the vote count. </p>
<p>This emphasis on speed without consequences culminated in 1980 when NBC News used exit polling to announce at 8:15 p.m. Eastern time that Ronald Reagan had defeated incumbent Jimmy Carter. NBC was roundly criticized for announcing a winner before all the nation’s polls had closed. Critics believed the network’s emphasis on being first <a href="http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1856081,00.html">may have hurt voter turnout on the West Coast</a>.</p>
<p>In 1990, the top broadcast and cable TV outlets teamed up with The Associated Press to create the Voter News Service. The idea was that the collective effort would share the costs – and the results – of vote analysis on election night. The analysis combined exit polling, actual vote totals, voter turnout and other data to predict who would win. It also offered the possibility that a wide range of media outlets would be in sync, in terms of timing and the results themselves, as they <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Voter-News-Service">announced predicted winners</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Al Gore and Bill Clinton watch TV" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On election night 1996, Vice President Al Gore and President Bill Clinton watch the results come in on television.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-bill-clinton-watches-election-returns-with-vice-news-photo/824298208">David Hume Kennerly/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>The confusion of 2000</h2>
<p>The presidential race of 2000 became the election night when predictions and traditions failed the networks and the American public. The television networks had conditioned Americans to believe projections were as reliable as vote totals, and that a concession speech signaled the end of the race. In addition, because the networks all relied on the same data, they couldn’t catch problems with the predictions.</p>
<p>Using Voter News Service data, the networks first announced Vice President Al Gore had won Florida, but then changed to report Texas Gov. George W. Bush had won Florida, and therefore the whole election. Gore even made a private concession call to Bush, before calling back to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/podcasts/the-daily/george-bush-al-gore-2000-election.html">rescind his concession</a>.</p>
<p>In reality, the Florida vote was too close to call. But in many people’s minds, Bush had been declared the winner on television. It took a Supreme Court decision and a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/podcasts/the-daily/george-bush-al-gore-2000-election.html">public Gore concession speech to cement Bush’s victory</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Get our most insightful politics and election stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p>
<h2>A focus on vote counting</h2>
<p>In 2002, the Voter News Service was disbanded, replaced the following year by the <a href="https://www.edisonresearch.com/election-polling/">National Election Pool</a>, which serves the same purpose. For 2020, The Associated Press and Fox News have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/17/politics/2020-election-projections-explained/index.html">left that consortium</a> and will both be using the wire service’s own service, <a href="https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/ap-votecast/about">AP VoteCast</a>.</p>
<p>The results may take hours, if not <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/27/upshot/election-results-timing.html">days or even weeks</a>, to compile. That will make election night 2020 unlike any other in history. It’s my hope that the journalists and news organizations will resist their history of predicting a winner quickly, and instead focus on witnessing – and explaining – the process, however long it may take.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148413/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Conway does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Journalists want to be first to tell the public who won, but the 2020 election night news frenzy may be very different from past years’ coverage.Mike Conway, Associate Professor of Journalism, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1488582020-10-30T17:15:51Z2020-10-30T17:15:51ZWhat it’s like to lose a presidential election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366880/original/file-20201101-14-1bjlyky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C2%2C1911%2C1074&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One of these men will walk away from the 2020 race a loser. But who?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-candidate-joe-biden-boards-a-plane-news-photo/1228645826?adppopup=true">Jim Watson/AFP via Getty, Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The American public may not find out who wins the presidential election on Nov. 3 or Nov. 4 or even Nov. 5. But, at some point, we will learn whether Republican Donald Trump is elected to a second term or if Democrat Joe Biden will be the next president.</p>
<p>For the winner of the election, the moment of victory brings unbridled joy and acclamation, applause, laughter, hugs and champagne to <a href="https://greensboro.com/past-losers-talk-about-life-after-election/article_d50546f1-5bdc-534d-aa71-7f07b50988ef.html">celebrate the biggest prize in politics</a>.</p>
<p>This isn’t so for the loser, who must ultimately accept the responsibility for the defeat.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308218/original/file-20191223-11919-5bmw9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308218/original/file-20191223-11919-5bmw9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308218/original/file-20191223-11919-5bmw9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308218/original/file-20191223-11919-5bmw9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308218/original/file-20191223-11919-5bmw9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308218/original/file-20191223-11919-5bmw9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308218/original/file-20191223-11919-5bmw9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308218/original/file-20191223-11919-5bmw9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The winner is ecstatic – the loser isn’t.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/North-Korea-Kims-Travels-Train-Photo-Gallery/d3691a777ae44eda825ae735e989207d/1/0">AP Photo/Byron Rollins</a></span>
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<p>In my book, “<a href="https://www.chroniclebooks.com/products/the-art-of-the-political-putdown">The Art of the Political Putdown</a>,” I tell the story of Thomas Dewey, the Republican presidential candidate in 1948, who was heavily favored to win the election – only to lose to Harry S. Truman, the incumbent.</p>
<p>On election night, according to one story, Dewey, the governor of New York, asked his wife, “How will it feel to sleep with the president of the United States?”</p>
<p>“A high honor,” his wife replied, “and quite frankly, darling, I’m looking forward to it.”</p>
<p>But Truman won the election. The next day at breakfast, as the story goes, Dewey’s wife said, “Tell me, Tom, am I going to the White House or is <a href="https://www.wikitree.com/wiki/Dewey-355">Harry coming here tonight</a>?”</p>
<h2>A disappointing letdown</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365916/original/file-20201027-23-mr62i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365916/original/file-20201027-23-mr62i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365916/original/file-20201027-23-mr62i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=798&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365916/original/file-20201027-23-mr62i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=798&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365916/original/file-20201027-23-mr62i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=798&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365916/original/file-20201027-23-mr62i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1003&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365916/original/file-20201027-23-mr62i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1003&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365916/original/file-20201027-23-mr62i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1003&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">George McGovern lost the 1972 presidential election to incumbent President Richard Nixon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GeorgeStanleyMcGovern.jpg">Warren K. Leffler, U.S. News & World Report collection, Library of Congress via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
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<p>Losing the presidency is a crushing defeat. The incalculable hours of giving speeches, campaigning and fundraising came to naught. The candidate feels like they have disappointed the millions of people who believed in them, who contributed to the campaign, who voted for them and who thought they were going to win.</p>
<p>The pain associated with losing the presidential election remains for a long time. A dozen years after George McGovern lost the 1972 presidential election in a landslide to Richard Nixon, he was asked how long it had taken for him to recover. “<a href="https://greensboro.com/past-losers-talk-about-life-after-election/article_d50546f1-5bdc-534d-aa71-7f07b50988ef.html">I’ll let you know when I get there</a>,” McGovern said.</p>
<p>After losing the 2008 presidential election, John McCain said he slept like a baby: “<a href="https://ew.com/article/2015/10/06/stephen-colbert-john-mccain/">Sleep two hours, wake up and cry</a>,” he said, adding, “sleep two hours, wake up and cry.” </p>
<p>In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton woke up on Election Day ahead in most of the polls and thought she would become the first woman president. By the time the day was over, those hopes had faded, and by early the next morning, when she called her opponent Donald Trump to concede, those hopes had disappeared entirely.</p>
<p>“This is not the outcome we wanted or we worked so hard for,” Clinton told her supporters. “I know how disappointed you feel because I feel it, too … <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/hillary-clinton-concedes-election-donald-trump-speech">This is painful</a>, and it will be for a long time.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365927/original/file-20201027-20-zcng2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="John Kerry concedes in 2004" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365927/original/file-20201027-20-zcng2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365927/original/file-20201027-20-zcng2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365927/original/file-20201027-20-zcng2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365927/original/file-20201027-20-zcng2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365927/original/file-20201027-20-zcng2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365927/original/file-20201027-20-zcng2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365927/original/file-20201027-20-zcng2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Kerry conceded the election to George W. Bush in 2004.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/john-kerrys-concession-speech-at-faneuil-hall-in-boston-news-photo/589139790">Rick Friedman/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Concessions are difficult</h2>
<p>When a person has committed so much to running for the president for so long, it’s not easy to let go. In the early morning hours of election night 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore conceded in a call to his Republican opponent, George W. Bush, then <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/07/election.president/">retracted the concession</a> in another call <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20001108/aponline180633_000.htm">when the results</a> in the decisive state of Florida appeared uncertain. Thirty-six days passed before Bush’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/13/gore-concedes-presidential-election-to-bush-dec-13-2000-287285">victory was confirmed</a> by the U.S. Supreme Court. </p>
<p>In her 2017 book, entitled “What Happened,” the title itself a statement of disbelief, Hillary Clinton remembered calling Donald Trump to concede the election. She said she offered to help him in any way she could. “It was all perfectly nice and weirdly ordinary, like calling a neighbor to say you can’t make it to his barbecue,” she wrote. “It was mercifully brief … <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/06/hillary-clinton-what-happened-book-excerpts-242372">I was numb</a>. It was all so shocking.”</p>
<p>The 1960 presidential election between Democrat John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon, the Republican vice president, remains one of the closest in history. Nixon said that he was advised by President Dwight Eisenhower to challenge the results because of <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2000/10/was-nixon-robbed.html">cheating by the Democrats</a> but refused, he said, because it would cause a “constitutional crisis” and “tear the country apart.” This, he added, would result in him being called a “<a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2000/10/was-nixon-robbed.html">sore loser</a>” and jeopardize any chance of him running for president again. </p>
<p>When Nixon ran for the presidency in 1968, he was elected and then reelected in 1972, before resigning in disgrace in 1974. Nixon was the last person who won his party’s nomination after previously losing a presidential election.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365921/original/file-20201027-21-bq4vmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Al Gore receives the Nobel Peace Prize" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365921/original/file-20201027-21-bq4vmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365921/original/file-20201027-21-bq4vmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365921/original/file-20201027-21-bq4vmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365921/original/file-20201027-21-bq4vmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365921/original/file-20201027-21-bq4vmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365921/original/file-20201027-21-bq4vmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365921/original/file-20201027-21-bq4vmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Al Gore lost the presidency, but shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for his environmental work to combat climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NorwayNobelPeacePrize/b25627ffca9f42ec849b69e057eb5a02/photo">AP Photo/John McConnico</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>After the loss</h2>
<p>But if there’s little hope of a fresh attempt at the presidency, losing candidates have found second acts in American politics. </p>
<p>President Jimmy Carter, who was defeated by Ronald Reagan when he sought reelection in 1980, became an <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/carter/life-after-the-presidency">international human rights activist</a> and won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002. Gore became an environmentalist and <a href="https://www.insider.com/what-happened-to-presidential-candidates-who-lost-elections#al-gore-lost-to-george-bush-in-2000-but-won-the-nobel-peace-prize-and-an-academy-award-for-best-documentary-in-2007-6">shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize</a> and a 2007 Academy Award for best documentary for a pioneering examination of climate change.</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-important">The Conversation’s most important election and politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p>
<p>John Kerry, who lost to George W. Bush in 2004, became <a href="https://www.insider.com/what-happened-to-presidential-candidates-who-lost-elections#al-gore-lost-to-george-bush-in-2000-but-won-the-nobel-peace-prize-and-an-academy-award-for-best-documentary-in-2007-6">secretary of state</a> in the Barack Obama administration. John McCain, who lost to Obama in 2008, <a href="https://www.insider.com/what-happened-to-presidential-candidates-who-lost-elections#al-gore-lost-to-george-bush-in-2000-but-won-the-nobel-peace-prize-and-an-academy-award-for-best-documentary-in-2007-6">stayed in the U.S. Senate</a>. Mitt Romney, who lost to Obama in 2012, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/819de4649f23447aa35b1cfb811d26e6">now serves in the U.S. Senate</a>. </p>
<h2>The transfer of power</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365925/original/file-20201027-22-2kuv3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="George H.W. Bush greets Bill Clinton" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365925/original/file-20201027-22-2kuv3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365925/original/file-20201027-22-2kuv3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365925/original/file-20201027-22-2kuv3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365925/original/file-20201027-22-2kuv3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365925/original/file-20201027-22-2kuv3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365925/original/file-20201027-22-2kuv3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365925/original/file-20201027-22-2kuv3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On Jan. 20, 1993, George H.W. Bush greeted the man he lost to, Bill Clinton, at the White House.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-george-bush-greets-president-elect-bill-clinton-news-photo/158741485">Paul J. Richards/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Losing is hard, but losing as the incumbent, as Carter and George H.W. Bush did, is probably harder. But Carter and Bush understood the importance of the peaceful transition of power.</p>
<p>President Donald Trump repeatedly has cast doubt on whether he will accept the results of the election and peacefully hand over power if he loses to Biden. This could well result in the constitutional crisis to which Nixon referred. </p>
<p>In early 2020, when the Democratic primaries were still going on, Trump again expressed his unwillingness to vacate the White House – which drew a retort from Pete Buttigieg, who ultimately lost the Democratic nomination to Biden. Buttigieg said he had an idea for handling Trump, joking “If he won’t leave, I guess if he’s willing to do chores, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/buttigieg-trump-white-house-november-election-a9341746.html">we can work something out</a>.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148858/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Lamb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the winner, it’s the achievement of a lifetime. For the loser, not so much.Chris Lamb, Professor of Journalism, IUPUILicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.