tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/lawrence-springborg-14312/articlesLawrence Springborg – The Conversation2016-05-06T06:28:21Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/589932016-05-06T06:28:21Z2016-05-06T06:28:21ZNicholls toppling Springborg lays bare the still-uneasy marriage of Queensland’s Liberals and Nationals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121472/original/image-20160506-435-3wf1tv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tim Nicholls won a partyroom ballot to become the Queensland LNP's new leader.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/John Pryke</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tim Nicholls, treasurer in the Newman government, has replaced Lawrence Springborg as leader of Queensland’s Liberal National Party (LNP) following a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-06/tim-nicholls-wins-lnp-leadership-spill-over-lawrence-springborg/7389500">Friday partyroom spill</a>.</p>
<p>Fifteen months after the last state election, Nicholls’ victory reverts to the pre-eminence of “urban Liberals” over the merged party’s rural and regional representatives and constituents, as it was under Newman’s premiership.</p>
<h2>Why Springborg lost support</h2>
<p>Nicholls assumes the party leadership having bested Springborg in the second round of voting. Deb Frecklington, a party rising star from the rural heartland seat of Nanango, was elected unopposed as the new deputy leader. The pairing is clearly an appeal to voters in Brisbane and equally in the regions.</p>
<p>Springborg is considered one of the founding fathers of the merged Liberal and National parties in Queensland. His seat of Southern Downs, which he has held since 1989, rests on the safest margin of any LNP seat.</p>
<p>In the wake of the disastrous 2015 election loss for the LNP, Springborg was seen as a safe pair of hands and someone who could potentially negotiate a path back to government in a hung parliament with the Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) crossbenchers. But he came with the baggage of being a “recycled” leader from the party’s past who had been defeated as opposition leader at three prior elections between 2004 and 2009.</p>
<p>As opposition leader this time, Springborg struggled to land telling blows on the minority Labor government. He has faced speculation of a leadership coup since early this year. </p>
<p>In February, supporters of Brisbane-based MP Tim Mander began testing numbers for a leadership change. This <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/tim-mander-speaks-on-attempted-leadership-coup/news-story/6ccaafa688668cec4beb725b6deb439f">fell flat</a>. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, it was Mander who this time first nominated as a challenger for Springborg’s leadership. He fell in the first round of voting.</p>
<p>Despite Springborg’s seeming failure to capture the interest of the wider electorate, the LNP has been polling ahead of Labor in Queensland for some months. But, critically for his leadership, Springborg has consistently rated as less satisfactory than Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk in the same polling results. </p>
<p>In such circumstances, changes of leader while parties are in opposition aren’t that rare. But Nicholls comes with his own baggage. He is closely associated with the Newman government’s privatisation agenda, which was roundly rejected at the last election.</p>
<p>More recently, Springborg endured a seemingly terminal failure to hold the KAP members close when the LNP’s electoral changes bill was <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-labor-and-lnps-appalling-hypocrisy-experts-warnings-over-shock-electoral-changes-58273">hijacked by Labor</a> with the Katter MPs’ help. </p>
<p>Those Katter MPs and crossbencher Rob Pyne <a href="http://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/story/3891646/katters-pyne-back-cooperative-springborg/">claimed</a> on the morning of the leadership vote that co-operation with the opposition couldn’t be guaranteed if the “consultative” (and regionally akin) Springborg wasn’t confirmed as LNP leader. This came as a noteworthy, but clearly not decisive, intervention in the LNP’s deliberations.</p>
<h2>Broader implications</h2>
<p>More than rumblings over sliding polls for preferred premier, the LNP leadership spill indicates continuing disquiet over which “partner” should dominate the party, and which personality should head it.</p>
<p>It follows the conventional wisdom that an election can only be won if enough Brisbane seats fall in behind a leader palatable to voters in the state’s southeast corner – in other words, an “urbane”, city-based former Liberal MP. The question now is whether Nicholls will prove such a viable alternative.</p>
<p>The spill also speaks of a continuing tendency in Queensland, as in other state and federal jurisdictions, to be reactive to negative poll results focused on the leader. This year’s federal election, with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull only eight months into the job he forcibly assumed, will put this trend to the test yet again.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the move against Springborg represents a long-ingrained tension in Queensland politics. The city-country divide has been a problematic issue for both major parties, but probably more so in recent times for the conservative side. This was witnessed recently in the re-emergence of a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-01/push-for-north-queensland-to-become-a-separate-state/7293548">“separate statehood” movement</a> in northern and rural parts of the state. LNP MPs have come down on either side of arguments for or against the idea.</p>
<p>The spill lays bare inner-party dynamics still struggling to overcome some antagonism between the LNP’s twin party bases, and probably reflects not doing enough to inject new “talent” with leadership potential into its ranks over the last two decades. </p>
<p>This is evidenced by a succession of tried, rejected and recycled leaders since the LNP formed in 2008, and revolving coalition leaders – though not always in formal coalition – in the decade before that. </p>
<p>Most tellingly, the conservative forces have only enjoyed two single terms in office in that time (2012-15 and 1996-98).</p>
<p>Pundits and party insiders will watch with interest to see if Nicholls can unite the LNP’s urban and regional supporters from his safe Brisbane electorate. His federal colleagues will certainly be hoping he can stabilise the party quickly.</p>
<p>Observers will also watch for any opportunistic response from Palaszczuk, who only recently <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/annastacia-palaszczuk-threatens-early-election--but-no-bills-to-trigger-one-20160309-gnen3y.html">indicated a readiness</a> to go to an early election to clear any roadblock from the state’s hung parliament.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58993/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is a Research Associate with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>Tim Nicholls’ victory reverts to the pre-eminence of “urban Liberals” over the Queensland LNP’s rural and regional representatives and constituents.Chris Salisbury, Research Associate, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/394732015-03-29T05:48:34Z2015-03-29T05:48:34ZBy sacking Billy Gordon, Palaszczuk has put her government on the brink<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76365/original/image-20150329-16086-46gt29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Billy Gordon has paid the price for failing to disclose his criminal history after he was sacked from the parliamentary ALP by Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland’s new Labor government is being confronted with its first crisis. It not only places doubt over the government’s tenuous majority, but it goes to the heart of its credibility. The government’s survival is at stake just two months after it was elected.</p>
<p>At a press conference on Sunday, Premier Annastasia Palaszczuk <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/annastacia-palaszczuk-sacks-mp-billy-gordon-20150329-1ma92x.html">sacked</a> MP Billy Gordon from the parliamentary Labor Party and called on him to resign his seat. His resignation from parliament would trigger a byelection, which, if won by the Liberal National Party, would give Labor and the LNP 43 seats each in the 89-seat Legislative Assembly.</p>
<p>Gordon, the member for the north Queensland seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/cook/">Cook</a>, had failed to disclose his <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/palaszczuk-to-decide-labor-mp-billy-gordons-fate-20150328-1ma0fc.html">criminal history</a>, including that an apprehended violence order was issued against him after a complaint by his mother in 2008. </p>
<p>On Friday, Palaszczuk referred an allegation that Gordon was involved in an incident of domestic violence to Queensland police commissioner Ian Stewart. Gordon also admitted that he had failed to pay child support to his former partner.</p>
<p>Gordon has <a href="https://www.facebook.com/BillyGordonforLeichhardt/posts/441928639306373">apologised</a> for not notifying Palaszczuk of his criminal record. But this has clearly not been enough to save his party membership and looks likely to end his fledgling political career.</p>
<p>At the time of publishing, Gordon had not publicly responded to the premier’s actions.</p>
<h2>Palaszczuk’s first big test</h2>
<p>Throughout her press conference, Palaszczuk used strong language to criticise Gordon’s criminal actions and his failure to notify ALP officials of his criminal history when he ran for preselection. She said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The member for Cook was dishonest with me. He has let me down, he has let my deputy down, he has let my team down and he has let the people of Queensland down.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Gordon’s failure to notify party officials during preselection is particularly noteworthy given that he has run as a Labor candidate before. In 2013, he unsuccessfully stood for the ALP in the federal seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2013/s3818758.htm">Leichhardt</a>.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk called on ALP head office to reform its preselection practices. She said that if the party had known of Gordon’s criminal history during the preselection process, he would never have been a Labor candidate.</p>
<h2>A fast-moving story</h2>
<p>In calling for Gordon’s resignation from parliament and sacking him from the parliamentary party, Palaszczuk did what was required of her in the short term given the events of the past 48 hours.</p>
<p>On Sunday, Queensland speaker and independent MP <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/billy-gordon-queensland-faces-by-election-call-for-labor-mp-to-quit/story-e6frgczx-1227283330332">Peter Wellington</a> said that Gordon should step down as a member of parliament, and a byelection should be called. This would place the Labor government in a perilous situation given that it relies on Wellington’s support to stay in power.</p>
<p>Wellington’s call came on the back of the <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-labor-government-in-crisis-as-mp-admits-to-criminal-past/story-fnihsrf2-1227283072295">Sunday Mail</a> newspaper claiming that it has:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… obtained correspondence sent to the premier on March 13 – two weeks before the police referral in relation to claims made by Gordon’s former partner. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This could potentially give some weight to Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg’s <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/03/29/lnp-accuses-premier-of-gordon--cover-up-.html">assertion</a> that the Palaszczuk had covered up the allegations against Gordon.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76366/original/image-20150329-16105-8t7lk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76366/original/image-20150329-16105-8t7lk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76366/original/image-20150329-16105-8t7lk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76366/original/image-20150329-16105-8t7lk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76366/original/image-20150329-16105-8t7lk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76366/original/image-20150329-16105-8t7lk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76366/original/image-20150329-16105-8t7lk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Annastasia Palaszczuk placed integrity in government at the centre of her January election campaign pitched.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Kidston</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Palaszczuk’s promises and potential implications</h2>
<p>Palaszczuk made integrity, honesty and transparency a central theme throughout January’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-29/queensland-election-labor-to-set-up-organised-crime-inquiry/6054864">state election</a> campaign. She used this strategy to highlight Campbell Newman’s lack of support for Queensland’s anti-corruption watchdog, the Crime and Corruption Commission, and suggested that her government would be more accountable to the electorate.</p>
<p>Integrity was also the central theme that Palaszczuk kept returning to on Sunday. In doing so, she framed her handling of this issue as a debate on her own leadership abilities, by constantly referring to the government’s response in personal, emotive language:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I have always maintained integrity is fundamental to any government I lead … I am prepared to put my premiership on the line.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And by saying that she “felt sick to the stomach” over Gordon’s actions, Palaczszuk shifted the spotlight away from Gordon’s past, or Labor’s apparent failure to do its due diligence on its candidates, and placed it firmly on the government’s moral character.</p>
<p>Such language might be easy to use in a press conference, but Palaszczuk’s stance has political implications well beyond the next media cycle. When asked if she would accept Gordon’s vote should he become an independent MP critical to the government’s survival, Palaszczuk refused to answer. She knows that any potential answer could destroy her government.</p>
<p>The ALP clearly does not want to support an independent MP who was so harshly condemned by its leader today. However, it also does not want to face the prospect of losing a byelection that could bring down the government.</p>
<p>If an LNP candidate wins a future contest in the seat of Cook it will drastically alter the dynamics of the Queensland parliament. It would almost certainly tilt the balance in the LNP’s favour. While Wellington would notionally support the ALP, what the two Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) MPs would do remains uncertain. </p>
<p>While they have previously indicated their wish to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-12/queensland-election-2015-lnp-leader-offers-carrots-to-kap/6089358">support Springborg</a>, KAP MP Rob Katter <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-labor-katter-party-in-talks-katter-20150329-1mad73.html">said</a> on Sunday that his party doesn’t “want to be in the business of tearing down governments”.</p>
<p>While Palaszczuk has rightly taken a strong position against Gordon, her next task is to ensure actions speak louder than words – even if it jeopardises her government’s survival.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Winther does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Queensland government’s survival is at stake just two months after it was elected following the sacking of Labor MP Billy Gordon from the parliamentary party.Todd Winther, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/373562015-02-09T19:18:24Z2015-02-09T19:18:24ZQueensland waits: Labor and the LNP’s conflicting claims to power<p>Labor has claimed Queensland’s caretaker premier, Campbell Newman, must resign “by 6.01pm” tonight, while Liberal National leader Lawrence Springborg has claimed his party has a strong case to remain as caretaker government even if Labor has the numbers to form government.</p>
<p>Neither of those claims is correct. As Queenslanders wait for a result that could still be days away, it’s worth clearing up the conflicting claims being made by both sides.</p>
<h2>Why shouldn’t Campbell Newman resign at 6.01pm tonight?</h2>
<p>It had been widely reported that <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-squabble-over-keys-to-executive-building-20150209-139jqi.html">6pm on Tuesday</a>, February 10, was when Queenslanders can expect to finally know which major party will lead the next state government. But that’s not strictly true: as the electoral commission’s website shows, 6pm on February 10 is the <a href="http://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2015/timetable.html">cut-off for the return of postal votes</a>.</p>
<p>Last week the electoral commission was aiming for a Tuesday night deadline, but it has since reportedly revised that <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-springborg-speculates-on-ending-speculation-20150209-139xu8.html">back to the end of this week</a>. </p>
<p>The confusion about exactly what time a final election result will be announced has spread to the major parties, with senior Labor MP Jackie Trad <a href="http://audioboom.com/boos/2874467-labor-mp-jackie-trad-say-labor-has-the-right-to-form-government-in-queensland">declaring</a> on Monday that “Campbell Newman is the caretaker premier. And come 6.01pm tomorrow evening, he must resign his commission to the governor.”</p>
<p>But the Electoral Commission of Queensland needs to finalise the count and the distribution of preferences in all 89 seats. This task is so sensitive, it needs to be carefully handled – and that’s why it could take until the end of the week to confirm the final result. </p>
<p>Only after those final results are known can the writs be returned. That will be the trigger for Newman, who remains <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-queensland-if-theres-a-hung-parliament-37027">caretaker premier</a>, to resign his commission. </p>
<p>At that point, by convention, Newman should visit Governor Paul de Jersey and advise him to commission the party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly to form government. The Governor will then determine who forms government in Queensland (as <a href="https://theconversation.com/hung-parliament-for-queensland-expect-more-nuance-than-chaos-37038">Graeme Orr has explained</a>).</p>
<p>In the meantime, as constitutional law expert <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-queensland-if-theres-a-hung-parliament-37027">Anne Twomey has said</a>, “it is the responsibility of the parliamentary party leaders and the Governor to ensure that there is a government in office at all times”. That means Newman and his government are obliged not to resign just yet – and certainly not “by 6.01pm”.</p>
<h2>As the caretaker government, is the LNP in a better position to stay in office?</h2>
<p>In the days since reclaiming the Liberal National Party leadership, Springborg has argued that the LNP should be allowed to remain as caretaker government “until we get certainty” about the crucial seat of Ferny Grove.</p>
<p>“It is wrong for Labor or anyone else to run around tripping over themselves to snatch the keys of the executive building when the result has so far to go to actually be clearly determined. People shouldn’t jump the gun,” <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-09/labor-calls-on-lnp-to-relinquish-power/6079022">Springborg said</a>. “You could have the possibility of a government changing in the next few days, then changing again in the next month or so.”</p>
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<p>There may yet be a by-election in Ferny Grove, where the Palmer United Party candidate was an undischarged bankrupt and ineligible to run. But until that matter has been considered by the Court of Disputed Returns, as the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-09/labor-calls-on-lnp-to-relinquish-power/6079022">electoral commission has said</a> it will be, it seems likely that Labor’s Mark Furner will become the Member for Ferny Grove. </p>
<p>There could still be a by-election there, depending on the court’s decision. That would give the LNP the possibility of claiming minority government, if they won the seat and the backing of two crossbench Katter’s Australian Party MPs (who are yet to declare which major party they would support). </p>
<p>But that process of a court decision and by-election could take months. </p>
<p>In 1995, more than four months elapsed between the result of the July 1995 state election and the decision to call a by-election for the seat of Mundingburra in February 1996. While that court challenge was underway, Wayne Goss was able to get on with leading a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-newman-government-still-runs-queensland-so-what-can-it-do-37210">Labor government</a>.</p>
<p>That now looks like being the most likely outcome in Queensland. On current projections, Labor looks set to win 44 seats compared to the LNP’s 42. Labor also has the edge thanks to independent Peter Wellington’s commitment to ensure confidence and supply – giving Palaszczuk the 45 seats she needs to form a minority government. </p>
<p>That’s why Palaszczuk was confident enough to declare on Monday that she plans to visit Government House <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/risk-of-ferny-grove-by-election-clouds-labors-bid-to-govern-queensland-independently/story-fnr8vuu5-1227212401406">by the end of Wednesday</a> this week about forming government.</p>
<p>Given Labor is likely to have the numbers to lead a minority government, and given the recent example of the Goss minority government, neither convention nor history is on the LNP’s side to stay in office.</p>
<h2>The danger of ignoring conventional wisdom</h2>
<p>A final word of caution. Both parties should avoid embroiling the Governor in <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/risk-of-ferny-grove-by-election-clouds-labors-bid-to-govern-queensland-independently/story-fnr8vuu5-1227212401406">political controversy</a> over this election result. </p>
<p>It is incumbent on them to find a solution, and to observe the clear and well-understood conventions that guide political practice at election time, rather than descending into squabbles over <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-squabble-over-keys-to-executive-building-20150209-139jqi.html">the keys to the Executive Building</a>.</p>
<p>If Labor holds the greatest number of seats in parliament after this election, as appears certain, then the best place to test Labor’s numbers will be on the floor of parliament. </p>
<p>In the past two state elections, both major parties have suffered huge swings against them. In the months ahead, the people of Ferny Grove may get another chance to decide on behalf of the whole state which party deserves to be in government.</p>
<p>How they conduct themselves now and in the lead-up to a by-election in Ferny Grove, should one be called, will be crucial. Both parties would be well-advised to show respect to the Governor, to the political conventions and to the people of Queensland – or risk yet another backlash at the polls.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37356/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Tiernan has received funding support for her research from the Australian Research Council and the Australia and New Zealand School of Government.</span></em></p>Labor has claimed Queensland’s caretaker premier, Campbell Newman, must resign “by 6.01pm” tonight, while Liberal National leader Lawrence Springborg has claimed his party has a strong case to remain as…Anne Tiernan, Professor in the School of Government & International Relations, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/373242015-02-07T04:05:34Z2015-02-07T04:05:34ZQueensland LNP’s new leader is Lazarus with a quadruple bypass<p>Who is Lawrence Springborg, who has replaced Campbell Newman as the leader of the Queensland Liberal National Party?</p>
<p>Elected on Saturday afternoon after a marathon two-hour party meeting, Springborg has overcome the infamy of being an opposition leader who took his party to <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/lawrence-springborg-heads-field-contesting-leadership-of-the-lnp/story-fnr8rfrw-1227211092673">three election defeats</a>. To borrow a line from former prime minister John Howard, Springborg could now be seen as <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/howard-unleashes-elitist-costello-blew-his-chance-at-power-20101021-16w4p.html">Lazarus</a> with a quadruple bypass.</p>
<p>Springborg’s win is a sign that the LNP has <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-too-soon-for-lnp-to-give-up-hope-springborg-20150205-136vl8.html">not given up hope</a> of forming a minority government. Two Katter’s Australian Party MPs – who could yet hold the balance of power in the next parliament – have said Springborg is one of the very few senior conservatives figures they would be <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/katter-party-constituents-favour-springborg-led-lnp-government/story-fnr8vuu5-1227211077608">willing to deal with</a>.</p>
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<p>Three years ago, Newman handed Springborg <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-health-has-a-better-outlook-so-who-deserves-credit-36296">the health portfolio</a>, long considered to be one of the hardest in Queensland politics.</p>
<p>The member for <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/sdow/">Southern Downs</a> received plaudits for reducing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-23/springborg-announces-wait-time-guarantee-to-reduce-elective-surg/5912122">wait times for elective surgery</a> and overseeing the opening of the <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/staff-begin-the-move-to-lady-cilento-hospital-20140714-zt7ap.html">Lady Cilento Children’s Hospital in Brisbane</a>, even if it was also subject to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-11/lady-cilento-childrens-hospital-opened-too-soon-mother-says/5960070">some criticism</a>.</p>
<p>During Newman’s speech at the LNP’s election launch last month, the only spontaneous applause from party members came when Newman mentioned Springborg.</p>
<p>Throughout the election campaign, Treasurer Tim Nicholls was widely tipped to be Newman’s replacement. Yet only hours after the snap summer election was called, a Seven Network/Reachtel poll of 1583 Queenslanders found that Springborg came second behind Newman as preferred LNP leader.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"552740134739656704"}"></div></p>
<p>Springborg was first elected to Queensland parliament in 1989. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71379/original/image-20150207-28605-1fsv9sq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71379/original/image-20150207-28605-1fsv9sq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71379/original/image-20150207-28605-1fsv9sq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=810&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71379/original/image-20150207-28605-1fsv9sq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=810&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71379/original/image-20150207-28605-1fsv9sq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=810&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71379/original/image-20150207-28605-1fsv9sq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1018&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71379/original/image-20150207-28605-1fsv9sq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1018&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71379/original/image-20150207-28605-1fsv9sq.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1018&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The LNP’s Strong Team election advertisement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">LNP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Springborg did not feature as prominently in the LNP’s “Strong Team, Strong Plan” election advertisements as some of his colleagues, and was not as closely associated with the controversial asset privatisation plans as some of his senior colleagues.</p>
<p>Springborg’s new deputy is another former leader, John-Paul Langbroek.</p>
<p>Before the 2012 election, Langbroek <a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/newman_to_lead_lnp_to_qld_poll_gmqBXBaoew92VwZgzcmqZM">stood aside</a> for Newman to take the leader’s post. </p>
<p>During the Newman government’s first term, the former Gold Coast dentist largely kept his head down as education minister. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This article is partly based on a earlier article, <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-queenslands-unofficial-premiers-in-waiting-35952">Who are Queensland’s unofficial Premiers-in-waiting?</a>, in which the author Todd Winther predicted that Springborg would be the next LNP leader.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37324/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Winther does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Who is Lawrence Springborg, who has replaced Campbell Newman as the leader of the Queensland Liberal National Party? Elected on Saturday afternoon after a marathon two-hour party meeting, Springborg has…Todd Winther, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/362962015-01-28T02:55:16Z2015-01-28T02:55:16ZQueensland health has a better outlook, so who deserves credit?<p>It’s a sign of how much has changed in a few years that health has barely featured in the Queensland election campaign, despite being <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/lnp-holds-ace-cards-but-hand-has-slipped/story-fnr8rfrw-1227181571969">one of the issues that voters still say they care most about</a>.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean that everything has gone smoothly in Queensland health over the past three years. But after the health controversies that dogged the previous Labor government, the fact that the issue has slipped out of the spotlight ahead of the January 31 poll is a sign of improvement. </p>
<p>Interestingly, the current Liberal National government and Health Minister Lawrence Springborg, as well as the previous Labor government in certain areas, all deserve to share some of the credit for those recent improvements.</p>
<h2>How Labor lost its edge on health</h2>
<p>Health and education are traditionally two areas where state Labor parties tend to poll better than their conservative opponents, in contrast to other areas like law and order and the economy.</p>
<p>But in Queensland, an early election campaign poll of 800 voters found that the Liberal National Party still held an edge over Labor (46% to 43%) on which party was seen as better able to manage health and public hospitals.</p>
<p>Queensland Labor’s reputation for managing health took a beating under the Beattie and Bligh governments. As well as the damaging fallout from the investigations into the clinical performance of <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/jayant-patel-finally-leaves-queensland-20131122-2y0aq.html">Dr Jayant Patel</a> at Bundaberg Hospital, the long-standing under-resourcing of public hospitals and Queensland Health’s failed payroll system provided a string of public relations disasters throughout Labor’s last two terms of government.</p>
<p>It wasn’t all bad under Labor. Making up for past under-funding, state government expenditure on health more than doubled. Labor’s time in office also saw the establishment of a quality and safety program that was a national leader, for example, in public reporting of adverse events. And there was a massive capital program, which included commitments to three new teaching hospitals and expansion of almost every main hospital across Queensland.</p>
<p>But as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-16/queensland-2012-election-policies/3894274">many analysts noted</a>, Labor’s mishandling of health was one of the deciding issues of the last election. As I wrote <a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-top-five-health-priorities-this-election-5923">in 2012</a>, there were serious challenges in the state’s health system that needed to be tackled.</p>
<h2>What’s changed under the LNP</h2>
<p>Compared with the spate of bad news stories under Labor, the past 12 months under the LNP government have produced relatively few adverse media reports.</p>
<p>There have still been some major issues involving Queensland Health services in that time. In particular, there was a prolonged and unnecessarily bitter dispute with salaried doctors over their contracts (although services were minimally disrupted). </p>
<p>In response to that and other government decisions, the then assistant minister for health and former Australian Medical Association state president, Dr Chris Davis, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-23/chris-davis-resigns-as-qld-member-for-stafford/5473702">quit as the LNP member for Stafford</a>. The government <a href="https://theconversation.com/inside-operation-boring-the-lnps-strategy-to-reclaim-queensland-36146">lost the seat in the by-election</a>. Dr Davis has become an outspoken critic of the Newman government, recently <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3FrF7z76b8">urging voters to put the LNP last</a>.</p>
<p>The health services have also had significant job losses, including a dismemberment of the health promotion and prevention services. That is hardly a rational decision in the face of the current chronic disease epidemic. </p>
<p>Allegations of corrupt behaviour by one of the new chief executive officers brought in following the change of government are the subject of an ongoing investigation. And there have been major clinical disasters, such as the events associated with a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-06/doctor-under-investigation-over-4-operations-at-rockhampton-hosp/5432892">urologist at Rockhampton Hospital</a>, in which a patient had the wrong kidney removed. </p>
<p>But notable improvements have been made too, which account for Labor largely running quiet on health in this election.</p>
<h2>Greater local management and an experienced minister</h2>
<p>There has been a very different approach to the leadership of the health portfolio. The LNP government implemented the district health services model effectively. It appointed boards and largely let them get on with their roles of managing health services. It progressively devolved responsibilities from central office to districts, taking into account local capability.</p>
<p>In the main, the government has trusted the boards it has appointed to do their job. The politics of public health services are frequently driven by local concerns, and should be managed locally. Of course, it is easier to ignore squeaky wheels and get on with the job when you have a massive majority in Queensland’s single-house parliament, as the LNP has enjoyed in the past three years.</p>
<p>Health Minister <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-queenslands-unofficial-premiers-in-waiting-35952">Lawrence Springborg</a> is an experienced politician who has served as a minister in previous LNP governments, as well as being a leader in opposition. He has largely successfully managed the policy directions – and sometimes misdirections – from the Premier’s office. </p>
<p>In my view, Springborg has appropriately distanced himself from the day-to-day operational issues of the health services. That is a problem that plagued health ministers under Labor, who were continually flying about “fixing” hot-spots identified by the media. He has also followed through on some hard commitments, such as bringing back birthing services to country hospitals like Beaudesert. </p>
<p>The LNP and Springborg have benefited from the massive investment in hospitals started under Labor, which has increased capacity for elective surgery and for managing emergency department waits. Most of the hard decisions, such as the location and size of the new hospitals, occurred under Labor. </p>
<p>The minister has still had to manage some big challenges along the way, such as the <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/abuse-used-in-union-queensland-childrens-hospital-site-strike-campaign-court-told/story-fnihsrf2-1226817096084">prolonged strike at the new children’s hospital</a> in Brisbane. Bravely, the minister has also committed – albeit after the election – to ensure that all surgery patients will <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-23/springborg-announces-wait-time-guarantee-to-reduce-elective-surg/5912122">have their operations within the recommended times</a>, even if this means outsourcing these to the private sector. </p>
<p>I would be more impressed if the minister had committed to tackling the hidden lists: the waits for specialist outpatient services and allied health services.</p>
<p>However, that will remain a challenge for the next health minister – whoever that may be after Saturday’s election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36296/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Wilson is Director of the Australian Prevention Partnership Centre which is funded jointly by the NHMRC, Commonwealth Department of Health, NSW Ministry of Health, ACT Health and the HCF Research Foundation. The Menzies Centre for Health Policy receives funding from Menzies Foundation. Andrew Wilson's previous roles include being the Executive Dean, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology; Deputy Director of General Policy, Strategy and Resourcing at Queensland Health; and Deputy Dean and Director of Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Queensland.</span></em></p>It’s a sign of how much has changed in a few years that health has barely featured in the Queensland election campaign, despite being one of the issues that voters still say they care most about. That…Andrew Wilson, Director, Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/359522015-01-11T19:29:05Z2015-01-11T19:29:05ZWho are Queensland’s unofficial premiers-in-waiting?<p>It’s the question dogging Premier Campbell Newman everywhere he goes this election – who will lead Queensland if his party wins, but he loses?</p>
<p>So far, <a href="http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/01/07/15/23/campbell-newman-challenged-on-electoral-maths-as-punters-predict-he-will-lose-his-seat#v7C7dc6RiwZTtZXe.99">Newman’s line has been</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I firmly believe that if we have a situation where I’m not winning Ashgrove, actually the LNP will be kicked out of office.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But that’s not a prediction backed up by <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/that-thinking-feeling/campbell-newman-is-lying-to-you-and-he-knows-it-20150107-12juv0.html">simple maths</a> or by the betting market.</p>
<p>As local media outlets have been reporting almost daily, <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-bookies-tip-campbell-newman-to-lose-ashgrove-20150107-12j9cr.html">the punters’ prediction</a> is that the Liberal National Party will win the election, Newman will <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/ashg/">lose his seat of Ashgrove</a> to Labor rival Kate Jones, and Tim Nicholls will be the new premier.</p>
<p>So who is Tim Nicholls? And who are the other front-runners to be premier if the LNP regains office without its leader?</p>
<p><strong>Tim Nicholls</strong> is currently Queensland’s treasurer. He has greatly enhanced his reputation with traditional Liberal voters as the public face of the government’s <a href="http://www.strongchoices.qld.gov.au">“Strong Choices”</a> program.</p>
<p>Nicholls also performed well <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-budget-2014-treasurer-tim-nicholls-delivers-nofrills-budget-20140603-zrw1x.html">delivering the 2014-15 budget</a>, which aligned with the LNP’s main message of making “tough choices”, while continuing to attack the opposition over the previous Labor government’s economic legacy.</p>
<p>However, Nicholls has two problems to overcome if he is to win the leadership. </p>
<p>The first is a question of style. While Nicholls is an effective persecutor in the halls of parliament, he has yet to translate this skill to a wider audience. The most significant problem with “Strong Choices” was the government’s – and specifically Nicholls’ – inability to translate the policy and relate it to the average voter.</p>
<p>The second challenge that Nicholls faces is a factional one. A protege of the controversial <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/santo-santoro-quits-as-liberals-vice-president-20140320-3561z.html">Santo Santoro</a>, Nicholls had been on the wrong side of the factional divide until Newman’s arrival. </p>
<p>Succeeding Santoro in the seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/clay/">Clayfield</a> in Brisbane’s inner northern suburbs, Nicholls attempted a challenge for the Liberal leadership in 2007, which ultimately ended in a tie. Subsequently, Mark McArdle <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/mcardle-named-liberal-leader/story-e6freoof-1111115046776">assumed the leadership</a> as a compromise candidate, largely because Nicholls was unable to convince the Liberal party room that he could be a credible leader. As result he has been passed over in every leadership ballot since. Clearly, he would have to be more convincing this time.</p>
<p>Despite the infamy of having been an opposition leader who took his party to three election defeats, <strong>Lawrence Springborg</strong> has been the LNP’s strongest performer since it assumed government. </p>
<p>Newman handed Springborg the health portfolio, long considered to be one of the hardest in Queensland politics. The member for <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/sdow/">Southern Downs</a> has received plaudits for reducing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-23/springborg-announces-wait-time-guarantee-to-reduce-elective-surg/5912122">wait times for elective surgery</a> and overseeing the opening of the <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/staff-begin-the-move-to-lady-cilento-hospital-20140714-zt7ap.html">Lady Cilento Children’s Hospital in Brisbane</a>, even if it has been subject <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-11/lady-cilento-childrens-hospital-opened-too-soon-mother-says/5960070">to some criticism</a>.</p>
<p>The main issue concerning Springborg’s potential leadership is historical baggage. The LNP would conceivably have trouble electing a leader who has already been defeated three times. To amend a phrase <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/howard-unleashes-elitist-costello-blew-his-chance-at-power-20101021-16w4p.html">from John Howard</a>: could Lazarus have a quadruple bypass?</p>
<p>Queenslanders may be more open to the idea than they once would have been.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"552740134739656704"}"></div></p>
<p>Only hours after the election was called, a snap Seven Network/Reachtel poll of 1583 Queenslanders found that Springborg came second behind Newman as preferred LNP leader.</p>
<p>Another former leader, <strong>John-Paul Langbroek</strong>, could also be a contender for the LNP’s top job. </p>
<p>During the Newman government’s first term, the former Gold Coast dentist has largely kept his head down as education minister. Langbroek is an outside chance of recapturing the leadership, but may be rewarded for party loyalty considering <a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/newman_to_lead_lnp_to_qld_poll_gmqBXBaoew92VwZgzcmqZM">he stood aside</a> for Newman to take the leader’s post.</p>
<p>In recent months, there has been <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/that-thinking-feeling/pick-a-premier--queenslands-favourite-game-of-political-confusion-20140910-10ex71.html">increased speculation in well-connected circles</a> about the leadership prospects of <strong>Ian Walker</strong>. The minister for science, information technology and the arts could be seen as a similar type of compromise candidate to McArdle in 2007. </p>
<p>Walker has strong factional support, but is little known outside Brisbane. In many other states, his background as a <a href="http://au.linkedin.com/pub/ian-walker/24/23b/726">top lawyer and managing partner in a large law firm</a> would not necessarily be seen as a hindrance. But this is Queensland, with the <a href="http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/pop-growth-reg-qld/reg-pop-growth-2008-09.pdf">most decentralised population</a> in Australia, and Walker could struggle to woo voters in Queensland’s vast regional areas.</p>
<p>The dark horse in this hypothetical contest is <strong>Scott Emerson</strong>. </p>
<p>The current minister for transport is seen as a rising star in the LNP’s ranks. This was confirmed when he received a 15% swing towards the LNP <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2012/guide/indo.htm">in his seat of Indooroopilly</a> at the 2012 election. But many see him as too inexperienced as this point.</p>
<p>Astute observers will note that betting markets did not include <strong>Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney</strong>, once <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/jeff-seeney-content-to-hold-newmans-bouquet-20120216-1taw4.html">described in The Brisbane Times</a> as “always the bridesmaid, but never the bride”.</p>
<p>Seeney is not a likely contender for the leadership as his style is more closely associated with the traditional National Party ethos. Consequently he is unlikely to appeal to the majority of urban voters, which is critical in any Queensland state election.</p>
<p>No women in the LNP are close to ascending to the top job. Some may wonder whether this is a reflection of quality within the party’s ranks, or whether this is indicative of the party’s culture.</p>
<p>Though Nicholls is justifiably the favourite to assume the leadership should Newman fall in Ashgrove, in my view it would make more sense for Springborg to take the LNP helm, should Newman be voted out. If that happens, the LNP could suffer serious destabilisation. Springborg’s experience and temperament could be the tonic to counteract this.</p>
<p>But it is worth remembering the awkward reason Newman is in state politics in the first place. In 2011, the LNP decided to <a href="http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/outsider-newman-eyes-qld-premiers-office-20110322-1c4g7.html">parachute Newman into state parliament</a>, after his high-profile tenure as lord mayor of Brisbane. </p>
<p>Back then, the other would-be premiers within the state ranks were seen as lacking the charisma, political connections, experience or ability to ensure that the LNP could win enough seats in the state’s heavily populated south-eastern corner to win an election. Less than four years on, the contenders to succeed Newman as premier remain largely the same. </p>
<p>The LNP will be hoping for a win in Ashgrove to avoid putting any of their premiers-in-waiting to the test just yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35952/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Winther does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s the question dogging Premier Campbell Newman everywhere he goes this election – who will lead Queensland if his party wins, but he loses? So far, Newman’s line has been: I firmly believe that if we…Todd Winther, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.