tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/lowy-institute-28601/articlesLowy Institute – The Conversation2023-08-10T10:37:42Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2113462023-08-10T10:37:42Z2023-08-10T10:37:42ZGrattan on Friday: The Coalition’s likely embrace of nuclear energy is high-risk politics<p>Crazy brave, or just crazy? If, as seems likely, the opposition embraces nuclear power in its 2025 election policy, it will be taking a huge political gamble. </p>
<p>The Coalition might argue this would be the best (or only) way to ensure we achieve net zero by 2050. But “nuclear” is a trigger word in the political debate, and the reactions it triggers are mostly negative. </p>
<p>Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has been open since the election about nuclear energy being on the Coalition’s agenda. It’s a “no surprises” tactic – but one that has allowed the government, especially Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen, to regularly attack and ridicule the idea. </p>
<p>This week opposition climate change and energy spokesman Ted O'Brien was spruiking nuclear power, writing in The Australian about the US state of Wyoming’s plans for a coal-to-nuclear transition. </p>
<p>O'Brien visited some months ago. “What struck me was the extent to which residents were embracing their nuclear future,” he wrote. “Four coal communities had gone head-to-head in a competitive bid to host the state’s first nuclear plant.”</p>
<p>O'Brien, a Queensland Liberal, has been a vociferous nuclear advocate; he chaired a parliamentary inquiry under the former government that recommended work to deepen understanding of nuclear technology and a partial lifting of the present moratorium, dating from 1998, on nuclear energy. </p>
<p>Nationals leader David Littleproud has also been central to the push for the Coalition to back nuclear energy.</p>
<p>The Nationals, by their climate scepticism and their deep attachment to coal, held back the Coalition on climate policy for more than a decade. Ahead of the 2022 election they were dragged by Scott Morrison to agree to the 2050 target with a massive financial bribe (some of which they didn’t receive because of the change of government). </p>
<p>Now, in opposition, some of the Nationals’ rump would like the party to ditch the 2050 commitment. The nuclear option would be one means of keeping them in the tent. </p>
<p>The “nuclear” the Coalition is talking about doesn’t involve old-style plants, but “new and emerging technologies” including small modular reactors. </p>
<p>That’s one of the problems for the policy – this is an emerging technology, not a quick fix to Australia’s challenges in transiting from fossil fuels. </p>
<p>That is, however, nothing compared with the challenge of public opinion. Notably, the 2019 parliamentary report was titled Nuclear Energy - Not without your approval. </p>
<p><a href="https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/report/2022/">A 2022 Lowy poll</a> found Australians divided on the issue of nuclear power, although opinion appeared to be softening. Some 52% supported removing the ban, which was a five-point rise from 2021; 45% opposed this – six points down on the year before.</p>
<p>The government would have a ready-made “not in my backyard” campaign to launch against the Coalition’s policy. Whether the Wyoming experience suggests feeling could be different in coal communities – which might see future jobs on offer – is, however, an interesting question. </p>
<p>Another extremely hard issue is that of waste. We only have to think of the massive difficulty in finding a disposal site for the waste from the Lucas Heights facility, which is from nuclear medicine. </p>
<p>The point was highlighted on Thursday when the Albanese government abandoned its plan for a waste dump near Kimba in South Australia. This followed an adverse federal court judgement, which upheld a challenge by local Indigenous people. </p>
<p>The government has decided not to appeal, presumably influenced by the delicate stage of the Voice referendum. </p>
<p>Resources Minister Madeleine King said: “The judgement was clear, and the government is listening”. She had visited Kimba in January and saw “a town divided” on the issue. The search will continue for another site. </p>
<p>The opposition called the failure to appeal “gutless”. Shadow foreign minister Simon Birmingham said a “strong majority” of the Kimba community had expressed a willingness to host the dump.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1689417118289473536"}"></div></p>
<blockquote>
<p>The failure to deliver this site creates huge uncertainties for nuclear medicines, leaves waste at temporary city sites all over Australia and undermines confidence that Labor is capable of the difficult decisions required to deliver nuclear powered submarines under AUKUS.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The opposition argues the planned nuclear submarine program provides a foot in the door to advance its case for nuclear energy. It will require limited onshore nuclear capability, and eventually Australia will have to deal with the waste from its boats. </p>
<p>But more persuasive, one would think – if people can be persuaded – would be high power prices and the difficulties of the energy transition, which we are already seeing as baseload power goes out of the system. </p>
<p>For that argument to work, however, the economics of nuclear power would have to stack up, and at present they don’t (although O'Brien disputes that).</p>
<p>Tony Wood, Director of the Energy Program at the Grattan Institute, lists some of the arguments against nuclear that the Coalition will have to deal with. </p>
<p>“There are doubts whether a small modular reactor could provide dispatchable power similar to a gas peaking plant,” Wood says. </p>
<p>There is also little real-world evidence these reactors would deliver cheaper prices, he says. “The SMRs are still in the early stages of development and already costing more than the proponents had expected.”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Nuclear in Australia is many years away, given the status of the technology and the fact we would have to train an entirely new workforce from scratch. </p>
<p>Lift the ban by all means. Nothing would change today. But the evidence that a social licence could be gained is minimal. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Coalition might believe it is ahead of the curve on the potential for small nuclear reactors for Australia. Whether or not that’s so, only technology and history will tell. </p>
<p>But even if it is right, sometimes you can be too far ahead of the political curve. Bill Shorten’s climate policy in 2019 was only a very little ahead, but it turned into one of the obstacles for his campaign when he couldn’t convincingly answer all the questions about it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211346/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Peter Dutton has been open since the election about nuclear energy being on the Coalition’s agenda - but that has allowed the government, especially Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen, to attack the ideaMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081032023-06-20T12:59:35Z2023-06-20T12:59:35ZAustralians’ feelings towards China are thawing but suspicion remains high: Lowy 2023 poll<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532869/original/file-20230620-21-5u3n7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C17%2C5712%2C3811&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The diplomatic thaw between China and Australian since the election of the Albanese government is being followed by a limited thaw in Australians’ negativity towards China, according to the Lowy Institute’s 2023 Poll. </p>
<p>But Australians remain deeply concerned about China as a long term potential military threat. </p>
<p>In the poll, more than half (56%) saw the resumption of ministerial contact as positive for Australia, while there has been a decline in those seeing China as a security threat. </p>
<p>Asked whether China is more of an economic partner or more of a security threat to Australia, those nominating a security threat is down 11 points from 2022 (to 52%). Those nominating an economic partner has risen 11 points to 44%. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532877/original/file-20230620-17-82wcs4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532877/original/file-20230620-17-82wcs4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532877/original/file-20230620-17-82wcs4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532877/original/file-20230620-17-82wcs4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532877/original/file-20230620-17-82wcs4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532877/original/file-20230620-17-82wcs4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532877/original/file-20230620-17-82wcs4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lowy Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This still contrasts with Australians’ feelings in 2020, when more people saw China as more of an economic partner (55%) than a security threat (41%). </p>
<p>Also, three quarters (75%) of Australians continue to believe it is likely China will become a military threat in the next 20 years, unchanged since last year. </p>
<p>Nearly nine in ten people (87%) are concerned about China potentially opening a military base in a Pacific island country. </p>
<p>More than half (56%) say that in the event of a military conflict between China and the United States, Australia should remain neutral. This is five points above 2022. </p>
<p>Asked about reaction to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, 64% would support Australia sending arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government. Six in ten (61%) would support using the Australian navy to help prevent China imposing a blockade around Taiwan. But only 42% would support “sending Australian military personnel to Taiwan to help defend it from China”.</p>
<p>Lowy’s executive director Michael Fullilove writes in his preface to the poll: “The sharp decline in Australian perceptions of China has levelled out.</p>
<p>"However, the levels of trust, confidence and warmth towards China and President Xi Jinping remain strikingly low. Five years ago, more than half of Australians trusted China to act responsibly in the world. Today, that figure is only 15%.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dialogue-is-vital-guardrail-in-dealing-with-china-albanese-tells-international-security-forum-206937">Dialogue is vital 'guardrail' in dealing with China, Albanese tells international security forum</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The poll comprises two nationally representative surveys taken March 14-26 and April 11-26 2023, with sample sizes of 2,077 and 4,469 Australian adults, respectively. This is the 19th edition of the Lowy Poll.</p>
<p>The poll found that while trust in the United States has declined by four points from last year, it is 10 points higher than in 2020, the last year of the Trump presidency. </p>
<p>Confidence in President Joe Biden is 59%, steady since last year but 10 points under 2021, his first year in office. </p>
<p>More than eight in ten (82%) of people say the Australian-US alliance is important to Australia’s security. This is five points lower from last year’s 87%, which was a record high. </p>
<p>About half (49%) believe AUKUS will make Australian safer, while 46% believe it will make the region safer. </p>
<p>Two-thirds (67%) support the decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/china-and-the-us-are-talking-again-so-where-does-the-relationship-go-from-here-208096">China and the US are talking again – so, where does the relationship go from here?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Polling in April, a month after the San Diego announcement of the detail of the submarine program, showed mixed feelings about the impact of the submarines on the likelihood of conflict in the region: 28% believed it will deter military conflict, while 20% thought it will increase the risk of conflict. </p>
<p>Asked whether the total cost of the submarine program (between $268 billion and $368 billion) is worth paying for the additional capability provided, 47% did not think the cost worth it. </p>
<p>When people were asked about threats to Australia’s vital interests in the next decade, cyberattacks from other countries ranked top (68%), ahead of a military conflict between the US and China over Taiwan (64%).</p>
<p>Fullilove sums up the feelings of the nation in 2023. “The 2023 Lowy Institute Poll reveals a sober optimism on the part of Australians looking out to the world. More Australians feel safe than last year. Their belief in democracy remains strong. They remain relatively hopeful about Australia’s economic outlook.</p>
<p>"But there has been no return to factory settings. The shocks of recent years broke many underlying assumptions about the world,” Fullilove writes. </p>
<p>The poll asked people how they rated the foreign performances of the six prime ministers of the past 15 years. Anthony Albanese ranked the highest with 83% saying he had done a very good or reasonable job handling foreign policy. He was followed by Kevin Rudd (78%), Julia Gillard (77%), Malcolm Turnbull (69%), Tony Abbott (50%) and Scott Morrison (46%).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208103/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australians remain deeply concerned about China as a long term potential military threatMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1860412022-06-29T03:36:23Z2022-06-29T03:36:23ZWord from The Hill: Parliamentary ‘newbies’ inspect their workplace, with some complaints<p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team.</p>
<p>Michelle and Peter Browne from the Politics + Society team discuss Anthony Albanese’s weighing a Ukraine visit and whether Australia will announce more support for that country and reopen its embassy there. </p>
<p>They also canvass the just-released Lowy Institute’s poll, which found a narrow majority of Australians support increased defence spending, and Defence Minister Richard Marles’ announcement extending the terms of the military’s top brass. </p>
<p>Meanwhile Parliament House has been like the first week of school, with new MPs being briefed on how the place works. Crossbenchers are in a row with the government over Albanese’s plan to cut back the additional staff they will get, above the entitlement of government and opposition backbenchers, from four in the last parliament to just one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186041/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses politics with Peter Browne from the politics + society teamMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1858782022-06-28T12:06:06Z2022-06-28T12:06:06ZAustralians favour more defence spending in Lowy poll, as Labor extends ADF chief Angus Campbell’s term<p>Australians are becoming more fearful in an insecure world, and want to see the country armed up, favouring more defence spending and the planned acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. </p>
<p>Three quarters of Australians say it is likely China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years, according to the 2022 <a href="https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/">Lowy Institute’s Poll</a>. This is an increase of 29 points since 2018. </p>
<p>Moreover, for the first time a majority (51%) would favour Australian military forces being used if China invaded Taiwan and the United States intervened. This was an eight-point rise since 2019 when the question was last asked. </p>
<p>Just over half (51%) say Australia should boost defence spending – a 20-point rise since 2019. Seven in ten favour the plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. More than six in ten support the American military being based in Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471293/original/file-20220628-25-k3n6bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471293/original/file-20220628-25-k3n6bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471293/original/file-20220628-25-k3n6bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471293/original/file-20220628-25-k3n6bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471293/original/file-20220628-25-k3n6bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471293/original/file-20220628-25-k3n6bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471293/original/file-20220628-25-k3n6bj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Defence Minister Richard Marles, who is acting prime minister, on Tuesday announced the government is extending the terms of the Chief of the Defence Force, Angus Campbell, and the ADF’s vice chief, Vice Admiral David Johnston, by two years. The government has also asked the CDF to extend the term of the Chief of Joint Operations, Lieutenant General Greg Bilton. </p>
<p>Marles said the extensions were because it was “a time which is as strategically complex as any since the end of the Second World War in terms of our national security and the needs of our defence procurement”. </p>
<p>In his preface to the poll, Lowy executive director Michael Fullilove writes:
“Australians are increasingly concerned about the potential for great power competition to spill over into confrontation. </p>
<p>"In 2022, Australians report feeling unsafe, and as the potential for conflict in our region feels more possible, support for Australia’s alliance with the United States has returned to a record high.”</p>
<p>Nearly seven in ten (68%) believe Russia’s foreign policy poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interest in the next decade – a 36-point increase since 2017. Russian foreign policy tops the list of threats to Australia’s vital interests, narrowly ahead of China’s foreign policy (65% – up 29 points since 2017). </p>
<p>In general, anxiety about Russia, China and a war over Taiwan have overtaken Australians’ concerns about COVID-19 and climate change. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471295/original/file-20220628-13-3kbb82.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471295/original/file-20220628-13-3kbb82.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471295/original/file-20220628-13-3kbb82.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471295/original/file-20220628-13-3kbb82.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471295/original/file-20220628-13-3kbb82.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471295/original/file-20220628-13-3kbb82.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471295/original/file-20220628-13-3kbb82.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The poll was conducted March 15-28 with a sample of 2006. It is the 18th in the Lowy Institute’s annual series and is authored by Natasha Kassam.</p>
<p>In the election campaign the Coalition tried to make national security and fears about China an issue to its advantage but this backfired when it came under attack for having been unable to head off the China-Solomons security pact. </p>
<p>The poll found 88% of people were concerned about China potentially opening a military base in a Pacific Island country. </p>
<p>While there has been a 11-point (to 58%) fall in confidence in US President Joe Biden since 2021, this is still 28 points above the confidence expressed in President Donald Trump in 2020 (30%). </p>
<p>On climate change, there is overwhelming support for federal government subsidies for renewable technology (90%), committing to a more ambitious emissions target for 2030 ((77%), and Australian hosting a United Nations climate conference (75%). Nearly two thirds (65%) support reducing coal exports, and banning new coal mines (63%). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471323/original/file-20220628-21-dbyohw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471323/original/file-20220628-21-dbyohw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471323/original/file-20220628-21-dbyohw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471323/original/file-20220628-21-dbyohw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471323/original/file-20220628-21-dbyohw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471323/original/file-20220628-21-dbyohw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471323/original/file-20220628-21-dbyohw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>COVID has receded but not disappeared as a threat in the minds of Australians. Only just over four in ten (42%) see COVID as a critical threat to Australia’s interests, 17 points down on 2021 and 34 points down on 2020. </p>
<p>More than six in ten people (62%) are optimistic about Australia’s economic performance in the world over the next five years, but this is a 17-point fall from 2021. </p>
<p>With Anthony Albanese’s visiting Paris later this week, in the poll 49% blame both Australia and France for the tensions in the relationship over the cancellation of the submarine contract; 35% say Australia is more to blame, while 12% blame France more. </p>
<p>Making his announcement about the defence chief, Marles said the Albanese government “is putting a premium on continuity. This applies to strategic advice and the timely and effective delivery of key procurements including through the AUKUS framework. Australia cannot afford any further delay in the next generation of submarines.”</p>
<p>Marles announced new chiefs of the navy, army and air force. </p>
<p>Navy: Rear Admiral Mark Hammond. </p>
<p>Army: Major General Simon Stuart. </p>
<p>Air Force: Air Vice-Marshal Robert Chipman.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185878/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australians are becoming more fearful in an insecure world, and want to see the country armed up, favouring more defence spending and the planned acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1631822021-06-22T12:30:55Z2021-06-22T12:30:55ZAustralians fear China-US military conflict but want to stay neutral: Lowy 2021 Poll<p>China’s aggressive stands and the sharp deterioration of the bilateral relationship are flowing through strongly to produce record negativity by Australians towards our biggest trading partner.</p>
<p><a href="https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/report/2021">The Lowy Institute’s annual poll</a> for the first time finds most Australians (52%) see “a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan” as a critical threat. <a href="https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/report/">This is 17 points up on just a year before.</a></p>
<p>More than half (56%) think Australia-China relations pose a critical threat.</p>
<p>The poll, “Understanding Australian attitudes to the world”, was done in the second half of March with a sample of 2222. The report is authored by Natasha Kassam. The results on climate and COVID have already been published.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/majority-of-australians-in-favour-of-banning-new-coal-mines-lowy-poll-161513">Majority of Australians in favour of banning new coal mines: Lowy poll</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>China-Australia relations have plummeted in recent years, with obstacles currently in place against a range of Australian exports, frequent denunciations of Australia by China, and its government’s continued refusal to return Australian ministers’ calls.</p>
<p>Since the poll was taken, the bilateral relationship has worsened; Scott Morrison at the G7 emphasised the challenge China presented and rallied support for resisting its economic coercion.</p>
<p>Trust in China has continued “its steep decline” according to the poll, reaching a new low. Only 16% of Australians trust China to act responsibly in the world, a 7-point decline from last year. As recently as 2018, 52% trusted China.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407633/original/file-20210622-15-yk9f9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407633/original/file-20210622-15-yk9f9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407633/original/file-20210622-15-yk9f9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407633/original/file-20210622-15-yk9f9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407633/original/file-20210622-15-yk9f9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407633/original/file-20210622-15-yk9f9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407633/original/file-20210622-15-yk9f9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407633/original/file-20210622-15-yk9f9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lowy Institute</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Just 10% of Australians have confidence in China’s president Xi Jinping to “do the right thing regarding world affairs”. This has halved since 2020 (22%) and fallen 33 points since 2018.</p>
<p>While people were critical of China on almost everything they were asked about in the poll, a majority do not want Australia dragged into a military conflict between China and the United States – 57% say Australia should remain neutral in such a conflict, well above the 41% who believe Australia should support the US.</p>
<p>There is a big age difference on this question: only 21% of those aged 18-29 say Australia should support the US in a conflict, but 58% of those over 60 believe it should.</p>
<p>In one small sign of optimism about China, 72% say it is possible for Australia to have good relations with both the US and China – although this is 15 points lower than in 2013.</p>
<p>China has fallen to the bottom of the Lowy Institute’s “feelings thermometer”, with a 7-point drop to 32 degrees – a 26 degree decline from 2018. This compares, for instance, with the rating of India (56 degrees), Indonesia (55 degrees), and the US (62 degrees),</p>
<p>Asked whether China is more of an economic partner to Australia or a security threat, more than six in ten (63%) see China as “more of a security threat” - a 22-point rise from last year. In contrast, only a third (34%) say China is “more of an economic partner to Australia”. This is 21 points lower than last year.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407632/original/file-20210622-25-1ezexo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407632/original/file-20210622-25-1ezexo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407632/original/file-20210622-25-1ezexo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407632/original/file-20210622-25-1ezexo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407632/original/file-20210622-25-1ezexo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407632/original/file-20210622-25-1ezexo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407632/original/file-20210622-25-1ezexo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407632/original/file-20210622-25-1ezexo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lowy Institute</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some 56% believe China is more to blame than Australia for the bilateral tensions, although 38% attribute blame equally.</p>
<p>Having an increasingly negative influence on views of China are its investment in Australia (79%), its environmental policies (79%), its system of government (92%) and its military activity in the region (93%).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407631/original/file-20210622-20-1qitizu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407631/original/file-20210622-20-1qitizu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407631/original/file-20210622-20-1qitizu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407631/original/file-20210622-20-1qitizu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407631/original/file-20210622-20-1qitizu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407631/original/file-20210622-20-1qitizu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407631/original/file-20210622-20-1qitizu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407631/original/file-20210622-20-1qitizu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lowy Institute</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Even in relation to China’s strong economic growth story, Australian attitudes have shifted significantly in recent years’, the Lowy report says.</p>
<p>"In 2021, less than half the population (47%) say China’s economic growth has a positive influence on their view of China, a steep 28-point fall since 2016”</p>
<p>The replacement of US president Donald Trump by Joe Biden has been wholeheartedly welcomed by Australians, the poll shows.</p>
<p>Some 69% have confidence in Biden to do the right thing regarding world affairs, 39 points higher than Australians’ confidence in Trump last year. More than six in ten (61%) now trust the US, 10 points higher than last year, but 22 points lower than reached in Barack Obama’s presidency.</p>
<p>There is strong support for the importance of the US alliance (78%), steady since last year) and confidence America would come to Australia’s defence if it were under threat (75%).</p>
<p>Commenting on the poll results, Kassam said “Australia’s China story has changed dramatically since 2018, from one of economic opportunity to concerns about foreign interference and human rights.</p>
<p>"Views of China are to some extent inseparable from the crackdown in Hong Kong, the detention of Uighurs, the disappearance of Australian citizens in China…” she said.</p>
<p>“A year of targeted economic coercion has clearly left its mark on the Australian public, and in a remarkable shift, now even China’s economic growth is seen as a negative. It would also appear that the uptick in China’s military incursions in the Taiwan Strait has not gone unnoticed by the Australian public, though the majority would still prefer to avoid a conflict between the superpowers.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinese-australians-have-a-sense-of-dual-belonging-lowy-poll-156317">Chinese-Australians have a sense of dual 'belonging': Lowy poll</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>China ‘dogged by insecurity’, says outgoing secretary of foreign affair department</h2>
<p>China, despite being a great power, was still “dogged by insecurity as much as driven by ambition,” the outgoing secretary of the foreign affairs department, Frances Adamson, said on Wednesday. </p>
<p>In an address before leaving the department later this week, Adamson – a former ambassador to Beijing – said China “has a deeply defensive mindset, perceiving external threats even as it pushes its interests over those of others”. </p>
<p>“It is too ready to suspect ‘containment’ instead of judging issues on their individual merits,” she told the National Press Club. </p>
<p>“And I always find it useful to remind myself when faced with strident official representations that the pressure exerted outwards on other countries must also be felt within, at an individual level, by those subject to that system.</p>
<p>"Insecurity and power can be a volatile combination, more so if inadvertently mishandled. We need to understand what we are dealing with.”</p>
<p>Lamenting the shrinking number of Western journalists in China, Adamson also said less access and less dialogue meant less understanding. </p>
<p>“This siege mentality – this unwillingness to countenance scrutiny and genuine discussion of differences – serves nobody’s interests. </p>
<p>"It means, among other things, that China is undergoing a steep loss of influence in Australia and many other countries.” This was confirmed, she said, by the Lowy poll showing Australians’ trust in China down to record lows. </p>
<p>“What we tell the Chinese government is that we are not interested in promoting containment or regime change.</p>
<p>"We want to understand and respond carefully – for shared advantage. Not to feed its insecurity or proceed down a spiral of miscalculation.</p>
<p>"Nor do we see the world through a simplistic lens of zero-sum competition. </p>
<p>"What we are interested in, and will continue to strive for, is a peaceful, secure region underpinned by a commitment to the rules that have served all of us – China included.”</p>
<p>Adamson said China might hope for Australia to have a fundamental rethink of policy but such hopes would be in denial of the impact of China’s behaviour on Australia, and the broad bipartisanship of its most fundamental policy settings. </p>
<p>“So we approach China with confidence, realism, and an open mind.</p>
<p>"National resilience and internal cohesion are important when dealing with China – but that doesn’t mean we should demand uniformity of viewpoint,” she said. </p>
<p>“Debate about our approach is a strength, not a weakness. Indeed, in an era when political and social freedoms are being rolled back in many parts of the world, a healthy open debate is one of the hallmarks of a liberal system. </p>
<p>"And the best policy always comes from contestability. This is as true of the China challenge as it is of economic or social policy.” </p>
<p>Adamson has been appointed governor of South Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s aggressive stands and the sharp deterioration of the bilateral relationship are flowing through strongly to produce record negativity by Australians towards our biggest trading partner.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1615132021-05-25T13:21:42Z2021-05-25T13:21:42ZMajority of Australians in favour of banning new coal mines: Lowy poll<p>More than six in ten Australians – 63% – support a ban on new coal mines opening in Australia, according to the <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/climatepoll-2021">Lowy Institute’s Climate Poll 2021.</a></p>
<p>A similar proportion would favour reducing Australian coal exports to other countries.</p>
<p>“Australian views of coal exports and coal mines … appear to have shifted significantly in recent years,” the report says.</p>
<p>Only three in ten people would back the federal government providing subsidies for building new coal-fired power plants.</p>
<p>There are notable age differences in attitudes to coal. More than seven in ten (72%) of those aged 18–44 support banning new coal mines, but only 55% of people over 45.</p>
<p>The government’s “gas-fired recovery” has majority support – 58% back increasing the use of gas for generating energy.</p>
<p>The poll found most people want Australia to have more ambitious climate policies ahead of the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow late this year.</p>
<p>Seven in ten people say Australia should join other countries, such as the United Kingdom and the United States, to increase its commitments to address climate change.</p>
<p>Some 60% say Australia is doing too little to combat climate change. But Australians are critical of other countries for not doing enough – 82% say China is doing too little. The figures for the US and India doing too little are 71% and 81% respectively.</p>
<p>Nearly eight in ten Australians (78%) support setting a net zero emissions target for 2050.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison has been edging towards embracing this as a target and is likely to do so before Glasgow, although he faces some resistance within the Coalition. All the states and territories have this target.</p>
<p>The federal government is coming under considerable pressure from the Biden administration and the Johnson government over the climate issue.</p>
<p>Climate questions will be a feature of the G7 summit in June to which Morrison has been invited.</p>
<p>The Lowy poll found 74% believe the benefits of taking further action on climate change would outweigh the costs.</p>
<p>More than nine in ten people (91%) support the federal government providing subsidies for the development of renewable energy technology, while 77% favour the government subsidising electric vehicle purchases.</p>
<p>More than half (55%) say the government’s main priority for energy policy should be “reducing carbon emissions”. This was an 8 point increase since 2019.</p>
<p>Six in ten people agree with the proposition “global warming is a serious and pressing problem. We should begin taking steps now, even if this involves costs”. This was a 4 point increase from last year</p>
<p>Six in ten Australians (64%) support “introducing an emissions trading scheme or carbon tax”.</p>
<p>The report, authored by Natasha Kassam and Hannah Leser, says: “While the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to temper concerns about climate change in 2020, the issue has risen to prominence again in 2021. The majority of Australians (60%) say ‘global warming is a serious and pressing problem…we should begin taking steps now, even if this involves significant costs’. This represents a reversal of the dip in 2020 during the early days of the pandemic, but remains eight points below the high watermark of concern in 2006.”</p>
<p>The climate poll was taken in mid and late April with a sample of 3,286.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402622/original/file-20210525-13-2torao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402622/original/file-20210525-13-2torao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402622/original/file-20210525-13-2torao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402622/original/file-20210525-13-2torao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402622/original/file-20210525-13-2torao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402622/original/file-20210525-13-2torao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402622/original/file-20210525-13-2torao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402622/original/file-20210525-13-2torao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lowy Institute</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More than six in ten Australians – 63% – support a ban on new coal mines opening in Australia, according to the Lowy Institute’s Climate Poll 2021.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1199842019-07-09T04:31:25Z2019-07-09T04:31:25ZDiplomacy and defence remain a boys’ club, but women are making inroads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283220/original/file-20190709-51305-17ff90j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Julie Bishop and Marise Payne have risen to the top in foreign affairs, but their successes may be masking more systemic issues preventing women from advancement. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">William West/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Lowy Institute has launched <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/gender-australia-ir-sector">a three-year study</a> on gender representation in Australia’s diplomatic, defence and intelligence services, and the findings are critical: gender diversity lags significantly behind Australia’s public service and corporate sector, as well as other countries’ foreign services.</p>
<p>In a field which has long ignored research on gender or feminist approaches to understanding international relations, this report is welcome and sets forth an important research agenda within Australia. </p>
<p>Gender diversity is an important issue for all who value the pursuit of Australia’s national interests overseas. Attracting and retaining the best talent is more important now than ever before.</p>
<p>As then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull <a href="https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/keynote-address-at-the-16th-iiss-asia-security-summit-shangri-la-dialogue">said</a> in June 2017: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The economic, political and strategic currents that have carried us for generations are increasingly difficult to navigate. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The report’s most significant findings</h2>
<p>The Lowy Institute found that of all the fields in international relations, women are least represented in Australia’s intelligence communities. </p>
<p>As the funding and resources of the intelligence sector <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview201819/NatSecurity">continue to grow</a>, this is a serious problem with little transparency. The sector appears to be struggling with a “pipeline” and “ladder” problem: women are both joining at lower rates and progressing at far slower rates than their male counterparts.</p>
<p>Another important finding is that the presence of female trailblazers in these fields, such as foreign ministers Julie Bishop and Marise Payne and Labor’s shadow foreign minister, Penny Wong, may be masking more systemic issues. This may be leading some agencies to becoming complacent, rather than proactive, on gender diversity. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-the-bid-for-more-female-leaders-mansplaining-probably-wont-help-43844">In the bid for more female leaders, 'mansplaining' probably won't help</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Women’s pathways to leadership continue to be impeded by institutional obstacles, such as unconscious bias and discrimination built into the cultures of these sectors, as well as difficulties in supporting staff on overseas postings. For instance, the report notes that in 2017 the government cut assistance packages for overseas officers, including government childcare subsidies. This has gendered ramifications given that <a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GGGR_2018.pdf">women continue to do the bulk of domestic labour</a>. </p>
<p>As such, the most important and high-prestige international postings are still largely dominated by men. <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/about-us/publications/Pages/women-in-leadership-strategy.aspx">DFAT’s Women in Leadership Strategy</a> has proved successful in meeting initial targets for improving women’s representation, however the industry as a whole has not yet followed suit. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1148405971837956096"}"></div></p>
<p>Further, it is not enough to just consider <em>how many</em> women there are, but what roles they occupy, given that women have often been siloed into “soft policy” or corporate areas and out of key operational roles needed for career progression.</p>
<p>The report also draws attention to the marginalisation of women from key policy-shaping activities. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>From the study’s research on declared authorship, a woman is yet to be selected to lead on any major foreign policy, defence, intelligence, or trade white paper, inquiry or independent review.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/women-in-combat-the-battle-is-over-but-the-war-against-prejudice-grinds-on-3593">Women in combat: the battle is over but the war against prejudice grinds on</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We would mention a few exceptions of women in other high-profile foreign policy roles – <a href="https://cew.org.au/members/heather-smith/">Heather Smith</a>’s stewardship of the G20 during Australia’s presidency and <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/about-us/our-people/homs/Pages/high-commissioner-to-india.aspx">Harinder Sidhu</a>’s leadership in the crucial India High Commission. We would also note the contribution of <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/about-us/our-people/homs/Pages/ambassador-to-the-association-of-south-east-asian-nations-asean.aspx">Jane Duke</a> to the ASEAN Summit in Sydney. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.defence.gov.au/Leaders/MsRebeccaSkinner.asp">Rebecca Skinner</a> has served as associate defence secretary since 2017 and <a href="http://www.defence.gov.au/Leaders/MsJustineGreig.asp">Justine Grieg</a> was appointed deputy secretary defence people in 2018. Major General <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/personnel-appointments/2018-11-08/major-general-cheryl-pearce-australia-force-commander">Cheryl Pearce</a> was also appointed commander of the UN peacekeeping force in Cyprus - the first Australian woman to command a UN peacekeeping mission.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283237/original/file-20190709-51292-46vci9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283237/original/file-20190709-51292-46vci9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283237/original/file-20190709-51292-46vci9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283237/original/file-20190709-51292-46vci9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283237/original/file-20190709-51292-46vci9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283237/original/file-20190709-51292-46vci9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283237/original/file-20190709-51292-46vci9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cheryl Pearce was commander of the Australian joint task force group in Afghanistan before taking up her current role.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Miller/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the under-representation of women in international affairs remains a core concern, we would argue the report could have taken a broader look at gender representation in foreign affairs-focused academic communities, think tanks and publishing industries, as well. </p>
<p>Many of these organisations have similarly woeful records when it comes to gender diversity. For instance, Australian Foreign Affairs magazine has been <a href="http://www.broadagenda.com.au/home/where-are-the-women/">criticised</a> for the lack of women authors it publishes. We know that it is not for lack of credible voices, but rather seems indicative of a systematic form of marginalisation of women within the wider foreign affairs community.</p>
<h2>Bright spots for gender diversity</h2>
<p>However, there is some cause for <a href="https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/dfat-women-in-leadership-strategy/">optimism</a>. For instance, our current PhD project is documenting the gender make-up of leaders and internationally deployed representatives in the departments of foreign affairs and trade, defence and home affairs, as well as the Australian Federal Police. As of this January, women represented 39.5% of those in the senior executive service in DFAT, and 41.4% of those employed as heads of Australian embassies and high commissions globally. </p>
<p>Further, we’ve found an increase recently in the number of women who work in diplomatic defence roles. While the Lowy report notes that women held just 11% of international roles in defence in 2016 (it is unclear exactly <em>what</em> international roles they are talking about), we found a slightly higher percentage of women (19%) currently employed in defence attaché roles. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-performance-on-gender-equality-are-we-fair-dinkum-113657">Australia’s performance on gender equality – are we fair dinkum?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The achievements made in this sphere are not just limited to gender either, with women from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds forming an important and growing part of representation.</p>
<p>In fact, a more in-depth analysis of the Lowy report’s data would have produced some very interesting, and more nuanced, findings. For instance, foreign affairs has long been the preserve of men, however it has also been the preserve of certain <em>types</em> of men. <a href="http://www.broadagenda.com.au/home/is-diversity-disrupting-diplomacy-and-are-we-doing-enough-to-ensure-it-is/">Diplomacy remains</a> a bastion of prestige, social class, heteronormativity, and in Australia, Anglo-Saxon privilege. It was only last year, for example, that Australia’s first Indigenous woman, Julie-Ann Guivarra, was appointed ambassador (to Spain). </p>
<p>Overall, as the report outlines, gender equality is not just nice to have, nor is it a marginal issue in foreign policy. Rather, the findings are clear: addressing the continued gender gaps are imperative to Australian foreign policy, national security and stability. </p>
<p>We can, and must, do better. Australian foreign policy needs good ideas, and it needs a lot of them. We cannot assume they will all come from the same place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119984/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Harris Rimmer received funding from the Australian Research Council and DFAT. She is affiliated with IWDA. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elise Stephenson received funding from DFAT. </span></em></p>A new report has found a major gender gap persists in Australia’s diplomatic, defence and intelligence fields. Australia needs good ideas, and we cannot assume they will all come from the same place.Susan Harris Rimmer, Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Griffith Law School, Griffith UniversityElise Stephenson, PhD Candidate, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/986252018-06-21T03:03:08Z2018-06-21T03:03:08ZLowy Institute Poll shows Australians’ support for climate action at its highest level in a decade<p>The annual <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/2018-lowy-institute-poll">Lowy Institute Poll</a> on Australian attitudes to the world and global issues for 2018 has been released. Among a series of interesting findings, one thing is clear: support for climate action and renewable energy continue to grow.</p>
<p>In response to the survey’s <a href="https://lowyinstitutepoll.lowyinstitute.org/climate-change-and-energy/">questions on climate and energy</a>, 59% of respondents agreed with the statement: “climate change is a serious and pressing problem. We should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224138/original/file-20180621-137738-4ek9cp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224138/original/file-20180621-137738-4ek9cp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224138/original/file-20180621-137738-4ek9cp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224138/original/file-20180621-137738-4ek9cp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224138/original/file-20180621-137738-4ek9cp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224138/original/file-20180621-137738-4ek9cp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224138/original/file-20180621-137738-4ek9cp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224138/original/file-20180621-137738-4ek9cp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://lowyinstitutepoll.lowyinstitute.org/climate-change-and-energy/">Lowy Institute Poll 2018</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This represents an increase of 5 percentage points from 2017, and a consistent increase in support for this statement over the past six years. It suggests that support for climate action in Australia is bouncing back towards its high point of 68% in the first set of Lowy Polls in 2006. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-ten-years-since-rudds-great-moral-challenge-and-we-have-failed-it-75534">It's ten years since Rudd's 'great moral challenge', and we have failed it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>What’s more, while the federal government doggedly pursues a <a href="https://www.energymatters.com.au/renewable-news/frydenberg-neg-cheaper-electricity-homes/">“technology-neutral” energy policy</a>, Australians don’t seem to be buying it. Public support for a large-scale energy transition in Australia is even more emphatic than support for climate action. </p>
<p>According to the Lowy poll, which involved a nationally representative sample of 1,200 adults, 84% of Australians support the statement that “the government should focus on renewables, even if this means we may need to invest more in infrastructure to make the system more reliable”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224139/original/file-20180621-137746-18tpsi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224139/original/file-20180621-137746-18tpsi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224139/original/file-20180621-137746-18tpsi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224139/original/file-20180621-137746-18tpsi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224139/original/file-20180621-137746-18tpsi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224139/original/file-20180621-137746-18tpsi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224139/original/file-20180621-137746-18tpsi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224139/original/file-20180621-137746-18tpsi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://lowyinstitutepoll.lowyinstitute.org/climate-change-and-energy/">Lowy Institute Poll 2018</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is a staggering verdict, one that casts a shadow over Australia’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/11/australias-transport-emissions-in-past-year-the-highest-on-record">rising greenhouse emissions</a> and the looming <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-government-sets-sights-on-august-approval-for-national-energy-guarantee-95374">Commonwealth-state negotiations</a> over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-the-national-energy-guarantee-at-a-glance-85832">National Energy Guarantee</a>. </p>
<p>Both figures suggest that most Australians are genuinely concerned about climate change, a finding consistent with the ever-growing scientific consensus.</p>
<p>The big question is: will Australia’s political leaders respond to this support for climate action and energy transition by putting legitimate policy in place?</p>
<h2>It’s political</h2>
<p>Two key impediments present themselves here, both political.</p>
<p>The first is Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s own party. Most governments around the world that have instituted legitimate climate and energy policies have at some stage faced down their political opponents. But the biggest political opponents to Australian climate action are the government’s own <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pro-coal-monash-forum-may-do-little-but-blacken-the-name-of-a-revered-australian-94329">internal pro-coal cabal</a>, featuring former prime minister Tony Abbott and backbench energy committee chair Craig Kelly. </p>
<p>This group has fought their more moderate colleagues tooth and nail on climate and energy policy. In the process they have painted even relatively timid policies – such as the National Energy Guarantee – as extreme or fiscally irresponsible. Abbott even recently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/19/tony-abbott-tells-party-he-was-misled-by-advisers-over-paris-climate-deal">claimed he had been misled</a> on whether the Paris targets he announced as a “definite commitment” – a 26-28% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 relative to 2005 – were actual targets.</p>
<p>The second impediment to climate leadership is trepidation on the opposition benches after a <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-new-books-show-theres-still-no-goodbye-to-messy-climate-politics-80957">bruising decade of climate policy wars</a>. Previously, Kevin Rudd’s Labor had a field day with John Howard’s climate inaction in 2006-07, which coincided with the high point of public concern in Lowy polls. </p>
<p>But the party’s current leadership is all too aware that turning public concern into sustained public consensus is tricky. In the face of Abbott’s scare campaign on carbon pricing and an associated collapse in public support for climate action, Rudd infamously walked away from acting on the “greatest moral challenge”. When Rudd’s successor Julia Gillard finally legislated a carbon price, Abbott <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/business-spectator/abbott-says-election-a-referendum-on-carbon-tax/news-story/611f79a4a3b35e9cb40c9c33b5926b6d">promised</a> that the 2013 election, which he duly won, would be a “referendum on the carbon tax”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-new-books-show-theres-still-no-goodbye-to-messy-climate-politics-80957">Two new books show there's still no goodbye to messy climate politics</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The new Lowy poll continues the trend of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-this-the-moment-that-climate-politics-and-public-opinion-finally-match-up-50062">inverse relationship between climate action and public concern</a>. When the federal government is perceived as doing little (such as from 2013 to now), support for strong climate action has grown. But when the government announces or pursues genuine climate action (2007-13), support has waned. </p>
<p>Aligning policy with politics won’t be easy, and will take real leadership. Will we see it from Bill Shorten’s Labor if he wins office?</p>
<h2>Security and economics: grounds for hope?</h2>
<p>If we can’t rely on our leaders to lead – or even to respond faithfully to public opinion and scientific consensus – is there any hope for strong climate policy in Australia? There is, and it’s in some strange places.</p>
<p>When we think of concerns that might stymie action on issues like climate change, we might think of factors such as national security or economic growth. But in Australia and elsewhere, these concerns are arguably beginning to drive calls for climate action.</p>
<p>In May, a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/Nationalsecurity">Senate inquiry</a> into the national security implications of climate change concluded that it represents a <a href="https://theconversation.com/senate-report-climate-change-is-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-australias-security-96797">clear and present danger to Australian security</a>. The Lowy poll suggests that the public endorses this sentiment – Australians ranked climate change as a <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/2018-lowy-institute-poll">more pressing threat than cyber attacks, foreign interference, or the rise of China</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/senate-report-climate-change-is-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-australias-security-96797">Senate report: climate change is a clear and present danger to Australia's security</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While some Australian politicians are steadfast in their support for coal, despite the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ideas-for-australia-lets-retire-the-idea-that-australia-depends-on-digging-up-coal-and-other-resources-57219">questionable economics</a>, mainstream financial institutions and even <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-09/liddell-coal-plant-closes/9243180">energy companies like AGL</a> are shifting away from fossil fuels. Far from economic considerations preventing climate action, as they seemed to in the 1990s, the economy might just be <a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-markets-the-planets-unlikely-new-ally-in-the-emissions-effort-55305">starting to drive that action</a>. </p>
<p>The climate message, in short, seems to be reaching the Australian people. But will it get to those we’ve elected to represent us?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98625/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt McDonald has received research funding from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>The latest annual survey from the Lowy Institute shows that 59% of Australians support strong climate action, and 84% want the government to embrace renewable energy even if it’s more expensive.Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/817502017-07-28T04:50:33Z2017-07-28T04:50:33ZBoris Johnson puts on the charm offensive to entice Australia into Britain’s post-Brexit future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180127/original/file-20170728-23792-14iaz4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Himbrechts</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/boris-johnson-britain-to-seek-stronger-ties-with-australia-after-brexit-20170727-gxkcq8.html">came to the Sydney Town Hall</a> on Thursday night for an event organised by the Lowy Institute. Judging by a rapturous reception, he beguiled a crowd of journalists, policy wonks and politicians.</p>
<p>That would not have been difficult in the circumstances given the suspension of disbelief that seems to accompany these sorts of events in which the great and the good from far away give us the benefit of their wisdom.</p>
<p>Media coverage of Johnson reflected this tendency.</p>
<p>What a funny chap, he is; although, it must be said, his mastery of the Australian vernacular leaves something to be desired? Whatever he absorbed in his gap year at Geelong Grammar it was hardly command of the idiom.</p>
<p>Putting all that nonsense aside, let’s stand back and ask the question: what was the point of the Johnson speech, and its relevance for his Australian audience?</p>
<p>The short answer is that he was trying to use his few days in the Antipodes to score some political points at home, and alternately charm his Australian audience as fellow members of <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-brexit-global-britain-looks-to-the-emerging-anglosphere-for-new-opportunities-77562">the Anglosphere</a> – whatever that might mean these days.</p>
<p>Johnson fell back on reference to Winston Churchill when he conferred his own blessing on the “special genius of English-speaking peoples” and, by extension, our membership of this exclusive club.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>For my part I think we must be careful to avoid any such conceit or complacency that English-speakers are especially blessed. But it is certainly true that there is a series of interconnected ideas that have been highly successful.</p>
<p>They are democracy, the rule of law, habeas corpus, an independent judiciary, the absolute freedom to make fun of politicians, and above all the freedom to live your life as you please provided you do not harm the interests of others. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>So endeth the Anglosphere lesson that seemed partly designed to draw Australia into Britain’s corner in the potential traumas that will accompany that country’s departure from the European Union.</p>
<p>Australia, he told us, would be first in line for a post-Brexit free-trade agreement. That might be a useful idea, but Australia’s trade diplomats should devote significant energy first to securing an FTA with the EU, since trade with that behemoth dwarfs our commercial relationship with Britain.</p>
<p>In all of this Johnson drew a particularly long bow when he posed the question that what if Australia had itself sought membership of the EU, with all the constraints that might apply.</p>
<p>What if the humble Violet Crumble had been subject to the tyranny of Brussels?</p>
<p>Indeed, what indignities would we have endured?</p>
<p>Well, that line of reasoning might have been deployed as a debating point at the Oxford Union. But it is hardly relevant to an Australian consideration of a changing global environment.</p>
<p>Australia never aspired to membership of the Common Market, although some of its politicians might have felt more comfortable in the halls of Westminister or viewing the cricket from the balcony at Lord’s – than in emerging Asia.</p>
<p>It could be argued that the Treaty of Rome was the best thing that ever happened to us since it helped expedite our engagement with Asia, and dissipated whatever illusions might have prevailed about our future as a European outpost.</p>
<p>Johnson’s broader point that Britain is itching to exit the European Community and navigate its own way free of the constraints that currently apply is a perfectly reasonable political point. But he was coming the raw prawn when he told his audience that Brexit was the “overwhelming desire of the British people”.</p>
<p>What a load of tosh.</p>
<p>Polls consistently show a fine margin either way for and against Brexit. Indeed, in the recent British election exit polls indicated that unhappiness with the Brexit process contributed significantly to the ruling Conservatives’ poor result. This was especially so in the south of the country, where Remain sentiment is strong.</p>
<p>Johnson, as one of the saboteurs of David Cameron’s lame attempts to keep Britain in the European Community, needs to justify his position. He is, after all, when all is said and done, a politician, and one who aspires to lead his own party. He is not about to admit error, and certainly not on foreign soil.</p>
<p>Johnson’s remarks about security in the Asia-Pacific are welcome, if they represent any more than boilerplate statements by a visiting official.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In the South China Sea, we urge all parties to respect freedom of navigation and international law, including the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.</p>
<p>We are also ready once again to articulate our commitment to international order with money and military presence … That is why one of the first missions of our two vast new aircraft carriers will be to sail through the Straits of Malacca, the route that currently accommodates a quarter of world trade.</p>
<p>If you look at these vessels you will see that they are not only longer than the Palace of Westminster but more persuasive than most of the arguments you will hear in the House of Commons.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Johnson wisely avoided reference to the last time Britain sought to rule the waves in the Asia-Pacific. On December 10, 1941, the sinking of the battleship Prince of Wales and the battlecruiser Repulse by Japanese bombers off Malaysia represented one Britain’s greatest naval disasters, and bleakest days in the second world war.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81750/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson came to the Sydney Town Hall on Thursday night for an event organised by the Lowy Institute. Judging by a rapturous reception, he beguiled a crowd of journalists…Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.