tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/northern-australia-2072/articlesNorthern Australia – The Conversation2023-10-04T03:56:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2117682023-10-04T03:56:59Z2023-10-04T03:56:59ZBradfield’s pipedream: irrigating Australia’s deserts won’t increase rainfall, new modelling shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549959/original/file-20230925-19-sjqj2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C8%2C5467%2C3647&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/long-awaited-rain-storm-one-drop-1541576591">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For generations, Australians have been fascinated with the idea of turning our inland deserts green with lush vegetation. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/leaders-tout-bradfield-scheme-options-in-queensland-election-fight-20191101-p536o2.html">Both sides</a> of politics have supported proposals to irrigate the country’s centre by turning northern rivers inland. Proponents have argued water lost to evaporation would rise through the atmosphere and fall back as rain, spreading the benefits throughout the desert. But this claim has hardly ever been tested.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL103913">recently published research</a> shows irrigating Australia’s deserts would not increase rainfall, contrary to a century of claims otherwise. </p>
<p>This provides a new argument against irrigating Australia’s deserts, in addition to critiques on economic and environmental grounds.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">What is the Bradfield Scheme? Featuring Griffith University’s Professor Fran Sheldon.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-bradfield-rerouting-rivers-to-recapture-a-pioneering-spirit-127010">'New Bradfield': rerouting rivers to recapture a pioneering spirit</a>
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<h2>The Bradfield scheme</h2>
<p>Proposals to irrigate the country’s centre by diverting water inland date back to at least the 1930s. The person most widely credited with the idea is John Bradfield, the civil engineer who designed the Sydney Harbour Bridge. He <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/97050378">proposed a series of dams and tunnels</a> that would transport water from northern Queensland to Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre.</p>
<p>Variants of the original scheme have been proposed <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/a-turning-point-lnp-vows-to-irrigate-drought-addled-western-qld-20201018-p5665l.html">as recently as 2020</a>. The Queensland Liberal National Party campaigned on a policy to build a Bradfield-like scheme in the last state election. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">An aerial view of the Queensland LNP’s ‘new Bradfield scheme’ (Liberal National Party of Queensland, October 2020)</span></figcaption>
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<p>Despite our fascination with it, the Bradfield scheme has well-documented problems. It is not cost-effective and would likely be a disaster for the environment. These findings have been confirmed repeatedly by <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/97099323">multiple</a> <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/natural-environment/water/water-resource-assessment/the-bradfield-scheme-assessment">reviews</a>, as recently as <a href="https://www.rdmw.qld.gov.au/water/consultations-initiatives/bradfield-regional-assessment-development-panel">2022</a>.</p>
<p>Yet the idea resurfaces <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-bradfield-rerouting-rivers-to-recapture-a-pioneering-spirit-127010">over and over again</a> and the debate around it remains active and ongoing. </p>
<p>Crossbencher Bob Katter, the federal member for Kennedy in Queensland, is a prominent supporter of the scheme. He <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-09/queensland-government-abandons-bradfield-scheme-after-report/101751678">rejected the critical findings</a> of a <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/natural-environment/water/water-resource-assessment/the-bradfield-scheme-assessment">recent CSIRO review</a> that found the scheme and others like it were not economically viable. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-why-cant-we-just-build-a-pipe-to-move-water-to-areas-in-drought-123454">Curious Kids: why can't we just build a pipe to move water to areas in drought?</a>
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<h2>Would it increase rainfall?</h2>
<p>Would the Bradfield scheme increase rainfall in central Australia? Given all the debate about the scheme, this question has received surprisingly <a href="https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-964034842/view?partId=nla.obj-964065417">little</a> <a href="https://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/internal/mcgregor_x2004a.pdf">attention</a>.</p>
<p>Bradfield argued the added irrigation water would effectively <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/97050378">double or triple the region’s rainfall</a>:</p>
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<p>This irrigation water would augment the average rainfall of the district from 10 to 20 inches per annum […] Sceptics and croakers say the water will evaporate or seep away […] [but] it will not go far.</p>
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<p>To test Bradfield’s claim, we turned to climate models. In a collaboration between scientists at the University of Melbourne, Harvard University, National Taiwan University and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, we simulated two worlds: one with a Bradfield-like scheme and one without it. </p>
<p>In our model of the Bradfield-like scheme, we permanently filled the region around Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre with water. That differs a bit from Bradfield’s original scheme but captures the basic idea. If anything, it is more extreme than Bradfield’s scheme. If Bradfield is right, we would expect our scheme’s effects on rainfall to be even larger.</p>
<p>Our simulations showed no significant increase in rainfall. This may sound surprising but can be explained with basic physical arguments.</p>
<h2>Why no rain?</h2>
<p>Rain forms when moist air rises. As it rises, temperatures drop, water condenses from vapour to liquid and clouds form. </p>
<p>Hot air rises, so high temperatures near the surface can promote rainfall. But in our simulations, irrigating the surface led to evaporative cooling of the air. The colder air did not rise as much, and rainfall was suppressed.</p>
<p>Where does all that extra water go? In our simulations, the water evaporated and was blown all over the Australian continent by wind. The additional water ended up being spread thinly over a large area. When it did eventually rain out, the effect on local rainfall was tiny.</p>
<p>Climate models aren’t perfect and have known weaknesses in simulating rainfall. But the basic explanation for the small change in rainfall can be understood without appealing to climate models. </p>
<p>Could irrigating a larger region, or a different part of the country, change the results? Maybe, and we are looking into it. But the Bradfield scheme is already <a href="https://www.rdmw.qld.gov.au/water/consultations-initiatives/bradfield-regional-assessment-development-panel">not cost effective</a>. Making the scheme larger or moving it away from natural flow paths would only make this problem worse.</p>
<p>Previous reviews of the Bradfield scheme have mainly focused on the economics of the scheme. Australian economist <a href="https://www.rdmw.qld.gov.au/water/consultations-initiatives/bradfield-regional-assessment-development-panel">Ross Garnaut’s report</a> in December 2022 is the most recent to find the scheme is economically unviable. </p>
<p>Our study provides a new argument against the Bradfield scheme, separate to economic arguments.</p>
<p>The idea of transforming our dry continent is seductive. But our study shows no plausible engineering scheme would be capable of making it rain enough to do so. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-drought-proof-australia-and-trying-is-a-fools-errand-124504">We can’t drought-proof Australia, and trying is a fool's errand</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211768/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kaighin McColl receives funding from the National Science Foundation, NASA, the Sloan Foundation, the Sahara Project, and Harvard University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dongryeol Ryu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research shows turning northern rivers inland to irrigate Australia’s dry interior would not increase rainfall. This is another argument against the Bradfield scheme.Kaighin McColl, Assistant Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Environmental Science and Engineering, Harvard UniversityDongryeol Ryu, Professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2080282023-06-29T20:01:48Z2023-06-29T20:01:48ZLand clearing and fracking in Australia’s Northern Territory threatens the world’s largest intact tropical savanna<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534741/original/file-20230629-25-ez2qiu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C12%2C2713%2C1807&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/top-end-termite-mound-northern-territory-1932907244">Jill Marie Smith, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Northern Territory government’s plan to turn 100,000 hectares over to <a href="https://industry.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1232771/agribusiness-strategy-2030.pdf">large-scale crops such as cotton</a> and its support for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/darwins-sustainable-middle-arm-development-is-key-to-huge-fossil-fuel-projects-documents-show">onshore gas extraction</a> is threatening the <a href="https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/nature-northern-australia">world’s largest intact tropical savanna</a>. </p>
<p>This is a region of immense cultural, environmental and economic value. It is home to the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/parks-heritage/heritage/places/world/kakadu">World Heritage listed Kakadu National Park</a> and rich biodiversity. </p>
<p>As wildlife ecologists and conservation scientists, we are deeply concerned about <a href="https://industry.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1232771/agribusiness-strategy-2030.pdf">plans</a> announced last month that would <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-24/nt-agribusiness-strategy-2030-crops-land-clearing-cotton-gins/102382600">intensify land clearing</a>. </p>
<p>Accelerating habitat loss would all but guarantee failure of the Australian government’s <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/plibersek/media-releases/minister-launches-threatened-species-action-plan-toward-zero-extinctions">zero extinctions</a> plan, notwithstanding the fact many of the species placed in harm’s way by fracking and farming are <a href="https://theconversation.com/hundreds-of-australian-lizard-species-are-barely-known-to-science-many-may-face-extinction-161572">yet to be discovered</a>. </p>
<p>Rather than relaxing regulation to support development, we need to urgently overhaul Australia’s grossly inadequate environmental laws and safeguards, which also lack enforcement. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Earlier this year (2023), the ABC investigated suspicious land clearing in the NT.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ecocheck-australias-vast-majestic-northern-savannas-need-more-care-59897">EcoCheck: Australia's vast, majestic northern savannas need more care</a>
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<h2>Land clearing leaves wildlife homeless</h2>
<p>When we think of unregulated land clearing and habitat loss in the tropics, impoverished countries in tropical South America, Africa and Asia spring to mind. Not a relatively rich, developed country like Australia.</p>
<p>But across Australia’s tropical north, landscapes are afforded little protection. Land clearing leads to habitat loss, erosion and pollution of waterways. </p>
<p>Threatened species such as the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/16/tanya-plibersek-approves-habitat-clearing-in-darwin-despite-risk-to-endangered-bird">Gouldian finch</a>, <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwil5qOEneP_AhUYRfEDHaRzBgwQFnoECBIQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fnt.gov.au%2F__data%2Fassets%2Fpdf_file%2F0018%2F205515%2Fblack-footed-tree-rat-kimberley-mainland-nt.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3iniQrIIhrK_yGQlcC5cCx&opi=89978449">black-footed tree-rat</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-endangered-species-northern-river-shark-12554">northern river shark</a> are being put at risk. </p>
<p>Agriculture, including livestock grazing (pastoralism), is by far the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-10-08/deforestation-land-clearing-australia-state-by-state/12535438">greatest driver of land clearing</a> in northern Australia.</p>
<p>The land subject to clearing approvals in the NT <a href="https://territoryrivers.org.au/a-fork-in-the-river/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw1_SkBhDwARIsANbGpFvOo6KLE0SjyU54tV8tlZJyU4Xf2vYE0HGhRlI_F897xp-9WqjqDaAaAiBJEALw_wcB">increased by 300% between 2018 and 2021</a>. This trend is expected to continue. </p>
<p>First Nations Peoples, environmental scientists, conservation groups, and other members of the public fear the push to develop cotton in the NT will mean <a href="https://envirojustice.org.au/blog/2023/06/06/taking-on-land-clearing-in-the-nt/">clearing a further 100,000 ha</a>. That stems from the 2019 <a href="https://ntfarmers.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/60321b63d7bd4778a95579680cac25f2.pdf">NT Farmers Association business case</a> for the construction of a cotton processing facility in the NT, which is <a href="https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/8057683/cotton-gin-plans-expands-prior-to-opening/">nearing completion</a>.</p>
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<h2>Weak laws afford limited protection</h2>
<p>Our national environmental protection law, the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/epbc">Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act</a>, relies on <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/epbc/our-role/what-is-protected">self-referral of development activities</a> for assessment. </p>
<p>Proponents of pastoral land clearing projects <a href="https://assets.nationbuilder.com/ecnt/pages/764/attachments/original/1672987003/ECNT_Nature_Laws_Discussion_Paper.pdf?1672987003">almost never refer their projects</a> to the Australian government for assessment, even if their projects are set to deplete thousands of hectares of habitat within the known range of threatened species. </p>
<p>This means the potential impacts on threatened species and other natural values supposedly protected by national environmental laws, are never assessed by experts. And there is <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/epbc/advice/referral-applications-and-proposals#:%7E:text=Under%20the%20EPBC%20Act%2C%20you,responsibilities%20relating%20to%20that%20action.">no mechanism for anyone else to refer</a> the development for assessment.</p>
<p>The NT has no dedicated <a href="https://www.ecnt.org.au/our_nature_our_future_the_case_for_next_generation_biodiversity_conservation_laws_for_the_northern_territory">land clearing</a> or <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8230090/an-urgent-reminder-of-why-we-need-new-national-nature-laws/">native vegetation management</a> legislation. The Pastoral Land Board approves land clearing across pastoral leases (which cover more than 45% of the territory’s land area). Permits for up to 5,000ha are <a href="https://nt.gov.au/property/land-clearing/pastoral-land/pastoral-land-clearing-applications-and-permits">generally granted without any formal environmental impact assessment</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://ntepa.nt.gov.au/your-business/public-registers/environmental-impact-assessments-register/completed-assessments/register/clearing-of-native-vegetation-on-ucharonidge-station">On one occasion</a> the proponent referred an application to the NT Environment Protection Agency. But it was deemed clearing the 10,000ha would not have a significant impact. So there was no environmental impact assessment required.</p>
<p>Some of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-11/land-cleared-for-cotton-farming-northern-territory/101651092">most notable examples</a> of recent uncontrolled land clearing, without any assessment of biodiversity impacts, were for cotton on pastoral land in the NT.</p>
<p>Finally, the current regulatory system covers single development proposals. It is poorly equipped to consider the cumulative impacts of successive individual clearing events.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/extinction-crisis-native-mammals-are-disappearing-in-northern-australia-but-few-people-are-watching-178313">Extinction crisis: native mammals are disappearing in Northern Australia, but few people are watching</a>
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<h2>Fuelling fires and biodiversity loss</h2>
<p>The push to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/03/northern-territory-clears-way-for-fracking-to-begin-in-beetaloo-basin">extract gas from the Beetaloo Basin</a> represents another major threat to the region. The export of fracked gas from Beetaloo will be facilitated by the <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/the-politics/rachel-withers/2023/06/14/middle-finger-development">Middle Arm Sustainable Development precinct</a>. </p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">runs counter to warnings</a> from the world’s climate scientists that we must rapidly move away from a reliance on fossil fuels if we are to meet ambitions to keep global warming below 1.5°C.</p>
<p>For northern Australia, climate change means <a href="https://nespclimate.com.au/climate-change-science-for-northern-australia/">more severe storms</a>, coral bleaching, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-killed-40-million-australian-mangroves-in-2015-heres-why-theyll-probably-never-grow-back-166971">death of mangroves</a>, more intense and extended dry seasons (with less water for wildlife), and increased fire risk and severity. </p>
<p>Threats may compound upon each other, as invasive <a href="https://theconversation.com/field-of-nightmares-gamba-grass-in-the-top-end-12178">gamba</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-buffel-kerfuffle-how-one-species-quietly-destroys-native-wildlife-and-cultural-sites-in-arid-australia-149456">buffel</a> grass that favour and promote fire would be even more likely to thrive and expand.</p>
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<h2>A better future for Australia’s tropical savannas</h2>
<p>To protect Australia’s tropical savannas from uncontrolled land clearing and gas extraction, we need: </p>
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<li><p>Stronger national environment protection legislation. The federal government is in the process of <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/epbc/our-role/reviews">reviewing the EPBC Act</a>. This is a perfect opportunity to recognise and protect our tropical savannas. The new act must have stronger requirements for the formal assessment of all projects that are likely to affect threatened species. It must also take the cumulative impacts of multiple small projects into account, to avoid “death by a thousand cuts”.</p></li>
<li><p>New NT-focused environmental law such as a <a href="https://www.ecnt.org.au/our_nature_our_future_the_case_for_next_generation_biodiversity_conservation_laws_for_the_northern_territory">Biodiversity Conservation Act</a>, as proposed by the <a href="https://www.edo.org.au/">Environmental Defenders Office</a>, <a href="https://envirojustice.org.au/">Environmental Justice Australia</a> and the <a href="https://www.ecnt.org.au/">Environment Centre NT</a>, would provide tighter regulation of land clearing. This could also consider greenhouse gas emissions, carbon storage and native food production (bush tucker), as well as the intrinsic cultural values of intact ecosystems. </p></li>
<li><p>Most importantly, conservation planning that is community-led, scientifically grounded and respects <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-26/nt-water-map-petition-cotton-gas-concerns/102516804">the wishes and concerns of First Nations Peoples</a> regarding enterprises on and management of Country. Recent pastoral land clearing in the NT has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-03/criticisms-mount-over-unregulated-land-clearing-in-the-nt/101897606">ignored the concerns of Traditional Owners</a> over the loss of Country (despite having legally recognised Native Title on the land). </p></li>
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<h2>Avoid repeating past mistakes</h2>
<p>While Australia’s tropical savannas are massive in scale, they are increasingly insecure and under significant strain. Against a backdrop of climate change, biodiversity decline and extinction crises, any further development of the north must be subject to rigorous risk-assessment and appropriate environmental protections.</p>
<p>This is essential to ensure any economic benefits justify potential risks. We simply can’t afford to risk repeating mistakes already inflicted on much of southern Australia.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/existential-threat-to-our-survival-see-the-19-australian-ecosystems-already-collapsing-154077">'Existential threat to our survival': see the 19 Australian ecosystems already collapsing</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208028/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Euan G. Ritchie is a Councillor within the Biodiversity Council, and a member of the Ecological Society of Australia and the Australian Mammal Society.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Murphy receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Australian Government's Threatened Species Scientific Committee, and the Australian Wildlife Conservancy's Scientific Advisory Network. He is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Woinarski is a member of the Biodiversity Council and a Director of the Australian Wildlife Conservancy</span></em></p>Hungry for development and industry investment, the Northern Territory government is putting one of the world’s last intact tropical ecosystems at risk. Scientists are calling for better protections.Euan Ritchie, Professor in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin UniversityBrett Murphy, Professor, Charles Darwin UniversityJohn Woinarski, Professor of Conservation Biology, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2051132023-05-21T20:00:24Z2023-05-21T20:00:24Z‘Painting with fire’: how northern Australia developed one of the world’s best bushfire management programs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526716/original/file-20230517-28-mjxdxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1824%2C1643&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Satellite imagery shows how burnt areas in central Arnhem Land are lines carefully 'painted' across the landscape.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/">Sentinel Hub EO Browser</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Right now, hundreds of bushfires are burning across northern Australia. But this is not a wildfire catastrophe – in fact, these burns are making things safer in one of the most fire-prone landscapes in the world.</p>
<p>From April to June each year, fire managers – such as Traditional Owners, park rangers and pastoralists – aim to create small, “cool” fires with care and precision to reduce fuel loads before conditions get severe later in the dry season. This work, “painting” landscapes with fire, is constantly informed by satellite data.</p>
<p>The combination of space technology with Indigenous knowledge and the know-how of pastoralists and park rangers has been everyday practice across northern Australia for the past 20 years. Not only does this work produce some of the best fire management outcomes in the world, it also demonstrates how cutting-edge technology can inform local and traditional knowledge for environmental management.</p>
<h2>The satellite view</h2>
<p>In the early 2000s, researchers and land managers brought together by the <a href="https://www.eoas.info/biogs/A001949b.htm">Cooperative Research Centre for the Sustainable Development of Tropical Savannahs</a> realised satellite imagery could be of great help for fire management across Australia’s vast tropical savannas. </p>
<p>These landscapes have always been prone to fire. After First Nations people moved away (or were forced) from these areas over the course of the 20th century, savanna fires <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1890/120251">became more frequent and intense</a>.</p>
<p>Satellite imagery had long been used to understand the extent and severity of fires and other landscape-altering events. But researchers realised it could also be used to manage those fires – if up-to-date imagery could be provided to the public on a daily basis. </p>
<p>The result was regularly updated maps of recently burnt areas distributed via a website launched in 2003, hosted by Charles Darwin University – <a href="https://firenorth.org.au/">North Australian Fire Information</a> (NAFI).</p>
<p>Twenty years on, NAFI’s maps of active fires and burnt areas underpin fire management across northern Australia. The maps are used for planning, response, implementation, and reporting. </p>
<h2>Carbon credits and international attention</h2>
<p>NAFI’s fire information also informs the federal government’s calculations for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2012-11-02/indigenous-fire-project-to-earn-carbon-credits/6123622">carbon credits related to reduced savanna burning</a>, which many people across Australia’s north are using to generate income. Some of this income is then put back into work to reduce the extent and severity of fires. </p>
<p>NAFI fire data also inform the national <a href="https://afdrs.com.au/">Australian Fire Danger Rating System</a> so it can be more effectively applied by bushfire agencies in remote areas.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-best-fire-management-system-is-in-northern-australia-and-its-led-by-indigenous-land-managers-133071">The world's best fire management system is in northern Australia, and it's led by Indigenous land managers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The same data have provided evidence showing north Australia has had <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-best-fire-management-system-is-in-northern-australia-and-its-led-by-indigenous-land-managers-133071">one of the most significant declines in fire</a> across any large landscape globally. </p>
<p>The successes of the NAFI service are drawing <a href="https://theconversation.com/fighting-fire-with-fire-botswana-adopts-indigenous-australians-ancient-burning-tradition-135363">international interest</a> as a model for fire information in other fire-susceptible regions around the world.</p>
<h2>Painting with fire</h2>
<p>Most Australians have a poor understanding of the history of fire on this continent. Fire has been a key human–ecological force that shaped landscapes over tens of thousands of years. </p>
<p>Over the past 20 years, <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-are-professional-fire-watchers-and-were-astounded-by-the-scale-of-fires-in-remote-australia-right-now-172773">proactive use of fire for landscape management</a> has been revived in northern Australia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-are-professional-fire-watchers-and-were-astounded-by-the-scale-of-fires-in-remote-australia-right-now-172773">We are professional fire watchers, and we're astounded by the scale of fires in remote Australia right now</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The scale of the work undertaken by Northern fire managers, particularly at this time of year when fuel load reduction burns are underway, is easy to see on NAFI. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A snapshot from NAFI from 15 May 2023. Each coloured dot represents an active fire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://firenorth.org.au">NAFI</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Landscape-scale fire management, as applied in Northern Australia, is a sophisticated endeavour where science, technology and engineering support local knowledge. </p>
<h2>Beyond science and technology</h2>
<p>In a world rapidly being <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-04/east-kimberley-fire-forum-climate-change-impacts/101609248">transformed by climate change</a>, the skills required to make our societies sustainable and resilient involve more than just science and technology. Good environmental management will also require diverse, locally based skills and capacity to act.</p>
<p>Good fire management, as a case in point, requires an ability to blend skills and ways of thinking across multiple knowledge systems as well as a huge amount of hard work on the land.</p>
<p>Enabling easy, appropriately curated <a href="https://savannafiremapping.com/">access</a> to satellite-derived land information – and training to understand it – is critical. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tiwi Rangers at a training session on using satellite data and digital mapping for fire management.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rohan Fisher</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>NAFI also develops and delivers training for land managers. Through workshops delivered across regional Australia, from remote Indigenous communities in the Kimberley and the top end to pastoralists in northern Queensland and central Australia, we are building high-tech capacity among those with the vital on-ground knowledge.</p>
<p>The journey of NAFI and fire management in northern Australia over the past 20 years illustrates how innovation is not just about technology, no matter how advanced. Innovation produces results when it is combined with other knowledge and put into the hands of the right people in the right way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205113/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rohan Fisher works for Charles Darwin University and has received federal funding to support the NAFI service. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Jacklyn works for Charles Darwin University and has received federal funding to support the NAFI service.</span></em></p>Satellite data and traditional know-how combined have drastically reduced fires across northern Australia over the past 20 years.Rohan Fisher, Information Technology for Development Researcher, Charles Darwin UniversityPeter Jacklyn, NAFI Service Manager and Knowledge and Adoption Coordinator, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1961242022-12-08T04:19:05Z2022-12-08T04:19:05ZExtreme heat in the midst of the Big Wet for northern Australia – what’s going on with the weather?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499719/original/file-20221208-25-qh64s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C6000%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After a wet and unusually cool spring for much of Australia, the start of meteorological summer is bringing a heatwave to the north of the continent. Even in our La Niña summer we can expect spells of heat, and it’s important to heed <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-06/nt-heatwave-emergency-northern-australia/101739196">health warnings</a> and take the hot weather seriously.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/">Heat is building across northern Australia</a> and the area may see temperatures over 40°C for the next few days. Some parts will experience temperatures more than 5°C above average. These are quite big departures for tropical regions, which normally experience less variable temperatures than places such as Melbourne or Adelaide.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499417/original/file-20221207-26-tevmck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499417/original/file-20221207-26-tevmck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499417/original/file-20221207-26-tevmck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499417/original/file-20221207-26-tevmck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499417/original/file-20221207-26-tevmck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499417/original/file-20221207-26-tevmck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499417/original/file-20221207-26-tevmck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499417/original/file-20221207-26-tevmck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting extreme heatwave conditions to persist through the weekend across parts of Western Australia, Northern Territory and Queensland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/melbourne-now-has-chief-heat-officers-heres-why-we-need-them-and-what-they-can-do-192248">Melbourne now has chief heat officers. Here's why we need them and what they can do</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Relief from the heat is expected early next week as more moisture allows wetter conditions, which will cool things back down.</p>
<p>As a La Niña event continues, people may be surprised to see a major heatwave in northern Australia. La Niña brings generally wetter and cooler conditions. However, there are other climate influences on Australia that can counteract its effects, and weather systems can still bring heat to the continent.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean">negative Indian Ocean Dipole</a>, which was combining with La Niña to provide the ingredients for a wetter-than-normal spring, has dissipated. The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Tropics">Madden-Julian Oscillation</a>, which is a pulse of enhanced cloud followed by clearer skies that moves from west to east near the equator, is not very strong at the moment. This allows drier conditions conducive to heat to build over the north of the continent. </p>
<h2>Extreme heat is dangerous, especially after cool periods</h2>
<p>Since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">Black Summer bushfires</a> of 2019-20, much of Australia has experienced what has felt like never-ending rains, but we must always be prepared for heatwaves. Extreme heat is very harmful to human health. It’s a <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/hottest-of-the-hot-extreme-heat-in-australia/">bigger killer than floods and other weather extremes</a> in Australia. </p>
<p>It is important for people to heed warnings about staying cool and hydrated during heatwaves. Each state and territory has handy advice to follow, including the <a href="https://nt.gov.au/wellbeing/health-conditions-treatments/heat-stress">Northern Territory</a>, <a href="https://www.getready.qld.gov.au/understand-your-risk/types-natural-disasters/heatwave">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://www.healthywa.wa.gov.au/articles/f_i/heatwave-be-prepared-for-extreme-heat">Western Australia</a>, which are affected by the current heatwave. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/uBAI3Zsf1kE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Bushfire-style emergency warnings will now be issued for heatwaves across Australia.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-kills-we-need-consistency-in-the-way-we-measure-these-deaths-120500">Heat kills. We need consistency in the way we measure these deaths</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Extreme heat is especially dangerous when it follows a period of cooler weather. For those of us in the south of the country, you may have noticed the first really hot day of summer feels more extreme than a day with the same temperatures in February or March. This is because the human body <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-rising-temperatures-affect-our-health-123016">takes time to acclimatise</a> to the heat. </p>
<p>We see worse health impacts from extreme heat early in the warm season. This is why the Bureau of Meteorology incorporates recent temperatures into its <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/knowledge-centre/heatwave-service.shtml">heatwave forecasts and alerts</a>.</p>
<h2>What will the rest of summer bring?</h2>
<p>The La Niña that helped set up the cool and wet spring conditions over most of Australia is <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean">predicted to ease</a> very soon. There is high uncertainty, though, and some forecast models predict the La Niña will last a bit longer. Predicting the end of these events is tricky, so forecasts aren’t always correct.</p>
<p>With a weakening La Niña, the summer outlook is for warmer daytime conditions away from the east of Australia and the rainfall signal is no longer very strong. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499697/original/file-20221208-345-u6z3dh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499697/original/file-20221208-345-u6z3dh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499697/original/file-20221208-345-u6z3dh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499697/original/file-20221208-345-u6z3dh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499697/original/file-20221208-345-u6z3dh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499697/original/file-20221208-345-u6z3dh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499697/original/file-20221208-345-u6z3dh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499697/original/file-20221208-345-u6z3dh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The summer outlook points to cooler daytime temperatures across parts of eastern Australia but warm to hot elsewhere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rainfall outlooks, though, are generally <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3789">less reliable in summer</a> than at other times of year. This is because more of our summer rain is from storms, and it’s hard to predict ahead of time where these will occur. Less of our rain is from fronts and large-scale weather systems compared with cooler times of year.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-cunning-plan-how-la-nina-unleashes-squadrons-of-storm-clouds-to-wreak-havoc-in-your-local-area-192500">‘A cunning plan’: how La Niña unleashes squadrons of storm clouds to wreak havoc in your local area</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This summer, <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/#tabs=Outlook">more tropical cyclones are forecast</a> in the Australian region. Depending on where exactly they form and track, we might see some places experiencing huge amounts of rain while others miss out.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499694/original/file-20221208-21-y8jrqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499694/original/file-20221208-21-y8jrqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499694/original/file-20221208-21-y8jrqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499694/original/file-20221208-21-y8jrqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499694/original/file-20221208-21-y8jrqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499694/original/file-20221208-21-y8jrqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499694/original/file-20221208-21-y8jrqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499694/original/file-20221208-21-y8jrqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There is not much confidence in whether it will be a wet or dry summer over most of Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Expect more heatwaves</h2>
<p>In any summer, parts of Australia will experience extreme heat. There are some places that, perhaps counter-intuitively, experience <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL061736">more heatwaves in a La Niña summer</a>, including Victoria.</p>
<p>Human-caused climate change is also bringing <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/trend-towards-worsening-heatwaves-is-accelerating-new-research-finds-20200703-p558s8.html">more frequent and intense heatwaves</a> to the continent and pretty much the whole world. We have <a href="https://theconversation.com/seriously-ugly-heres-how-australia-will-look-if-the-world-heats-by-3-c-this-century-157875">increased the odds of having extreme heat</a> events in Australia through humanity’s ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions. This means we must be prepared for more heat regardless of what’s going on with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or other climate influences.</p>
<p>We need to be prepared for different types of extreme weather over the summer. Wherever you are in Australia, it is important to keep up-to-date with the weather forecasts over the next few months.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-climate-what-australians-need-to-know-about-major-new-report-195136">State of the climate: what Australians need to know about major new report</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196124/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p>A heatwave across northern Australia comes as a shock to the system. The impacts of heat are worst in early summer when we’ve had less time to acclimatise, so it’s important to heed health warnings.Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1901412022-09-14T20:03:04Z2022-09-14T20:03:04ZWhat caused the world’s largest die-off of mangroves? A wobble in the Moon’s orbit is partly to blame<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484513/original/file-20220914-22-spyrev.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=34%2C14%2C3224%2C2428&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the summer of 2015, 40 million mangroves <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-likely-behind-worst-recorded-mangrove-dieback-in-northern-australia-71880">died of thirst</a>. This vast die-off – the world’s largest ever recorded – killed off rich mangrove forests along fully 1,000 kilometres of coastline on Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria. </p>
<p>The question is, why? Last month, scientists <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-killed-40-million-australian-mangroves-in-2015-heres-why-theyll-probably-never-grow-back-166971">found a culprit</a>: a strong El Niño event, which led to a temporary fall in sea level. That left mangroves, which rely on tides covering their roots, high and dry during an unusually dry early monsoon season. </p>
<p>Case closed. Or is it? While evidence clearly implicates El Niño, we found this climate cycle had a very large accomplice: the Moon. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abo6602">our study</a>, released today, we mapped the expansion and contraction of mangrove forest cover over the past 40 years, and found clear evidence that the Moon’s orbital wobble had an effect. </p>
<p>Our mapping also shows mangroves are expanding and their canopy thickening across the entire continent, which is most likely due to higher carbon dioxide levels. Spectacular though it was, the Gulf of Carpentaria mangrove dieback event was entirely natural.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483202/original/file-20220907-14-5v830i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483202/original/file-20220907-14-5v830i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483202/original/file-20220907-14-5v830i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483202/original/file-20220907-14-5v830i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483202/original/file-20220907-14-5v830i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483202/original/file-20220907-14-5v830i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483202/original/file-20220907-14-5v830i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author inspecting mangrove dieback in far north Queensland, April 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What clues gave away the Moon’s role?</h2>
<p>During El Niño cycles like the one in 2015, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/sea-levels-in-retreat-a-sure-sign-el-nios-grip-is-tightening-20150601-ghdwix.html">sea levels fall</a> around Australia and other countries in the western Pacific. </p>
<p>But these climate cycles affect the whole Indo-Australian region. If El Niño was the main cause, mangroves elsewhere should have been hit too. But the deaths of these tidal-flat dwelling shrubs and trees were largely localised to the Gulf of Carpentaria. Death rates were highest along shorelines that experience the full range of the tide. By contrast, mangroves continued to thrive at the tidal limits of the estuaries, far into the floodplains where climatic effects ought to be most strongly felt. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mangroves-from-space-30-years-of-satellite-images-are-helping-us-understand-how-climate-change-threatens-these-valuable-forests-156040">Mangroves from space: 30 years of satellite images are helping us understand how climate change threatens these valuable forests</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>That’s where the Moon comes in – and particularly the “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0sSsOzhY8Q">lunar wobble</a>”. Back in 1728, astronomers noticed the plane in which the Moon orbits Earth isn’t fixed. Instead, it wobbles up and down, a bit like a spinning coin as it begins to slow.</p>
<p>When we mapped the extent and distribution of Australian mangrove forests over the past 40 years, we found clear signs of the Moon’s wobble at work. This 18.6-year orbital cycle turns out to be the main reason why mangrove canopy expands and contracts around most of Australia’s coastlines – and explains the patterns of mangrove mortality in the Gulf of Carpentaria. </p>
<p>You might be wondering why the wobble has such influence over whether mangroves live or die. It’s the tides. The wobble changes how the Moon’s gravity pulls on the world’s oceans, so periods of exceptionally high tides are followed by exceptionally low tides 9.3 years later. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484503/original/file-20220914-14-ep4y5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="moon over sea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484503/original/file-20220914-14-ep4y5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484503/original/file-20220914-14-ep4y5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484503/original/file-20220914-14-ep4y5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484503/original/file-20220914-14-ep4y5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484503/original/file-20220914-14-ep4y5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484503/original/file-20220914-14-ep4y5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484503/original/file-20220914-14-ep4y5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Moon’s influence on tides varies due to the wobble in its orbit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Research by NASA scientists suggests this cycle is <a href="https://theconversation.com/you-may-have-heard-the-moon-wobble-will-intensify-coastal-floods-well-heres-what-that-means-for-australia-164632">likely to lead</a> to major coastal flooding in the early 2030s, as extreme high tides meet accelerating sea-level rise. </p>
<p>The lunar-mangrove cycle is clearly visible from above. When we mapped changes to dense mangrove forest in Northwest and Western Australia, we saw clear peaks in closed canopy – where mangrove leaves and branches thicken to cover more than 80% of the ground – coinciding with the highest tidal phase of the lunar cycle. </p>
<p>When the tides are at their highest, water inundates mangroves and brings nutrients, which accelerate growth. These periods potentially influence how much blue carbon is stored by mangroves over thousands of square kilometres.</p>
<p>But when the tides are at their lowest, mangroves can’t get the water they need. Over 2015-2016, the lunar wobble reduced tide range in the Gulf of Carpentaria – enough to slash tides by an estimated 40cm. Earlier mangrove dieback events in 1998 and 1982 also coincided with these troughs. </p>
<p>In 2015, tides along Australia’s northern coastline fell further still under the influence of El Niño, which moves seawater to the eastern Pacific. The result of the overlapping lunar and climate cycle in the Gulf of Carpentaria was the mass death of mangroves. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484508/original/file-20220914-25-zd5ktg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="figure" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484508/original/file-20220914-25-zd5ktg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484508/original/file-20220914-25-zd5ktg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484508/original/file-20220914-25-zd5ktg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484508/original/file-20220914-25-zd5ktg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484508/original/file-20220914-25-zd5ktg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484508/original/file-20220914-25-zd5ktg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484508/original/file-20220914-25-zd5ktg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Closed canopy mangrove cover in northwest and Western Australia tracking the 18.6-year oscillation in tide range caused by the lunar wobble.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One challenge we had was to distinguish between the effects of El Niño and the lunar wobble, given they tend to occur in the same time period in the western Pacific. Some scientists have even suggested the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33526-4">lunar wobble may contribute</a> to intense El Niño events. </p>
<p>To tease out the two causes, we relied on a quirk in the lunar wobble – and a quirk in the coastline. </p>
<p>The lunar wobble’s timing of the high and low tide range periods is reversed between coastlines with two high tides each day (semi-diurnal tides) and those receiving one high tide each day (diurnal tides). </p>
<p>The Gulf of Carpentaria is one of the few coastlines in Australia with diurnal tides. Most other coastlines have two high tides each day. Put together, this meant that in 2015, semi-diurnal coastlines had bigger-than-usual tides, while rare diurnal coastlines like those along the gulf had smaller-than-usual tides.</p>
<p>This explains why mangroves in the semi-diurnal coastlines directly next to the Gulf of Carpentaria were spared over the 2015-16 summer. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484506/original/file-20220914-18-1qjanc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="mangroves" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484506/original/file-20220914-18-1qjanc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484506/original/file-20220914-18-1qjanc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484506/original/file-20220914-18-1qjanc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484506/original/file-20220914-18-1qjanc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484506/original/file-20220914-18-1qjanc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484506/original/file-20220914-18-1qjanc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484506/original/file-20220914-18-1qjanc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Healthy mangroves rely on tidal inundation for seawater and nutrients.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Clode/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The northern coastlines next to the gulf were in the big-tide, high-productivity phase of the 18.6-year cycle and so were protected from El Niño. In the diurnal Gulf of Carpentaria, the small tide phase of the lunar wobble cycle combined with El Niño. Lower sea levels and lower tidal range pushed mangroves over the edge. </p>
<p>Interestingly, mangroves kept growing near the tidal head of rivers in the gulf despite the El Niño, because the effect of the lunar wobble was less pronounced upriver.</p>
<p>This is good news for mangroves. We now know short-term natural climate cycles like El Niño likely cannot cause widespread mangrove deaths by themselves. And we can anticipate the danger times when it coincides with the low tides brought by the lunar wobble. </p>
<p>While mangroves still face an uncertain future adapting to a world of higher seas, we can chalk the 2015 mass death up to “natural causes”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-killed-40-million-australian-mangroves-in-2015-heres-why-theyll-probably-never-grow-back-166971">Climate change killed 40 million Australian mangroves in 2015. Here's why they'll probably never grow back</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190141/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Saintilan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Millions of mangroves died off along Australia’s northern coast. The cause? El Niño - and the moon’s wobbly orbit causing extremely low tides.Neil Saintilan, Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1867782022-08-09T20:04:36Z2022-08-09T20:04:36Z‘Unacceptable costs’: savanna burning under Australia’s carbon credit scheme is harming human health<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478203/original/file-20220809-20-woohko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C5%2C3860%2C2347&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Savanna burning projects in northern Australia provide <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479721006307?via%3Dihub">economic benefits</a> to Indigenous communities and claim to <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1890/120251">reduce</a> greenhouse gas emissions. But our research suggests smoke from these projects is harming human health.</p>
<p>Northern Australia’s savannas cover <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.12686">about 25%</a> of Australia’s land mass. They’re among the most flammable regions in the world and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-best-fire-management-system-is-in-northern-australia-and-its-led-by-indigenous-land-managers-133071">comprise 70%</a> of Australia’s fire-affected area each year.</p>
<p>Savanna fire management involves strategically burning grasslands early in the dry season, purportedly to reduce the chance of large, intense, more carbon-intensive fires later in the season. Under Australia’s Emissions Reduction Fund, land managers who undertake savanna burning receive financial rewards in the form of carbon credits.</p>
<p>But our research, focused on Darwin, has <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-022-01745-9">shown</a> savanna burning under the fund is making air pollution worse. A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/29/chris-bowen-to-announce-review-of-carbon-credits-system-after-expert-labelled-it-a">review</a> of the fund now underway must consider these unacceptable costs to human health.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="aerial view of Darwin showing apartment buildings, trees and roads" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478197/original/file-20220809-26-8q92iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478197/original/file-20220809-26-8q92iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478197/original/file-20220809-26-8q92iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478197/original/file-20220809-26-8q92iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478197/original/file-20220809-26-8q92iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478197/original/file-20220809-26-8q92iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478197/original/file-20220809-26-8q92iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The research focused on air pollution in Darwin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Top End’s smoke problem</h2>
<p>Savanna fire management is currently a topic of substantial global interest – much of it stemming from its potential to reduce carbon emissions. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Pages/Choosing%20a%20project%20type/Opportunities%20for%20the%20land%20sector/Savanna%20burning%20methods/Savanna-fire-management-emissions-avoidance.aspx">underlying premise</a> is that early dry season burning releases fewer emissions than late dry season burning. This is because the fuel is moister and weather conditions milder — hence fires will be less extensive, less fuel will combust and less carbon will be released.</p>
<p>In Australia, savanna burning programs for carbon abatement were developed in the mid-2000s and integrated into the carbon market. Land managers are offered financial incentives to burn large amounts of savanna before the end of <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Pages/Choosing%20a%20project%20type/Opportunities%20for%20the%20land%20sector/Savanna%20burning%20methods/Savanna-fire-management-emissions-avoidance.aspx">July</a> each year. </p>
<p>The scheme has proved popular: registered projects now cover some <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479721006307?via%3Dihub">25%</a> of Australia’s 1.2 million km² tropical savannas, including <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-022-01745-9">55%</a> of land within 500km of Darwin. </p>
<p>Australia now touts itself as a <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/emissions-reduction-fund-delivers-100-million-carbon-credits">world leader</a> in savanna burning. We are sharing the practice with other regions around the world, and savanna burning programs linked to carbon markets have been proposed <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04687-7">elsewhere</a>. </p>
<p>Yet the smoke pollution consequences of such programs are rarely considered. In Australia’s Top End, for example, thick and prolonged smoke blankets communities every dry season. Darwin, a city of 158,000 people, regularly <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393512030918X#mmc1">exceeds</a> the Australian air quality standard for particulate matter. </p>
<p>In Darwin, smoky days bring more hospital admissions for <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10653-012-9489-4">lung and heart disease</a>, and more emergency department presentations <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2002/176/11/exposure-bushfire-smoke-and-asthma-ecological-study">for asthma</a>. These impacts <a href="https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1476-069X-7-42">disproportionately</a> affect Indigenous people. </p>
<p>Almost all Darwin’s particulate pollution is caused by landscape fires. In the early dry season, almost all of this is generated by prescribed burning - and there’s been a marked increase in burning in recent years linked to carbon abatement schemes.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-blew-the-whistle-on-australias-central-climate-policy-heres-what-a-new-federal-government-probe-must-fix-185894">We blew the whistle on Australia's central climate policy. Here's what a new federal government probe must fix</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="sky filled with black smoke above grass and flames" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478183/original/file-20220809-20-bohate.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478183/original/file-20220809-20-bohate.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478183/original/file-20220809-20-bohate.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478183/original/file-20220809-20-bohate.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478183/original/file-20220809-20-bohate.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478183/original/file-20220809-20-bohate.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478183/original/file-20220809-20-bohate.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Almost all Darwin’s particulate pollution is caused by landscape fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What our research found</h2>
<p>Our research considered the relationship between prescribed burning and smoke pollution in Darwin from 2004 to 2019.</p>
<p>We first assessed the very small particles found in smoke known as PM2.5. We then analysed fire activity within a 500km radius, and assessed the links between pollution, weather and fire.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-022-01745-9">results showed</a> air quality worsened in Darwin in the early dry season (particularly in June and July), with an increase in the annual number of severely polluted days. </p>
<p>Perhaps surprisingly, air quality did not change substantially in other seasons. In other words, shifting savanna burning to the early dry season did not appear to lead to better air quality later in the season.</p>
<p>Our findings highlight a complex story. Despite a substantial expansion of savanna burning for carbon abatement over our study period, net annual PM2.5 concentrations in Darwin did not decline. In fact, there was an increase in the number of times the national air quality standard was exceeded.</p>
<p>So what’s driving these results? One important factor involves large areas of savanna burned for carbon abatement to the southeast of Darwin in the early dry season. At that time of year, a steady south-easterly trade wind hits Darwin, bringing much of the smoke from these fires with it.</p>
<p>Fuel dynamics may also be at play. Native and non-native grasses which are highly flammable in the early dry season have been <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4242569/">expanding</a> on frequently burned savannas. Higher temperatures may be drying fuel out earlier in the dry season. These factors may make early dry season fires as extensive and intense as savannas burnt later in the season. </p>
<p>Our research comes with caveats. For example, we drew only broad inferences about the geographic sources of smoke over Darwin. Notwithstanding this, our results clearly demonstrate Darwin’s already significant air quality problem is worsening, rather than improving, in association with increased early dry season burning. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/air-pollution-causes-more-than-3-million-premature-deaths-a-year-worldwide-47639">Air pollution causes more than 3 million premature deaths a year worldwide</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people sit and walk through leafy shopping street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478198/original/file-20220809-18-n1hbii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478198/original/file-20220809-18-n1hbii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478198/original/file-20220809-18-n1hbii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478198/original/file-20220809-18-n1hbii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478198/original/file-20220809-18-n1hbii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478198/original/file-20220809-18-n1hbii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478198/original/file-20220809-18-n1hbii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Darwin’s already significant air quality problem is worsening, rather than improving.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A balancing act</h2>
<p>None of this means savanna burning should cease, nor that traditional owners should not be paid to manage fire on country. But it does mean policies should be designed so unintended harm is minimised and the benefits are maximised. </p>
<p>Policymakers must consider how to regulate burning to avoid smoke pollution exposure. In Darwin, particular attention may be needed in locations southeast of the city. One solution may be to regulate how much smoke can be released in a specific area on a given day.</p>
<p>Other factors should be considered too. For example, savanna burning in Australia <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35641570/">may</a> risk <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12685">harming biodiversity</a>. </p>
<p>But the Emissions Reduction Fund is a blunt tool which doesn’t consider these hidden costs and <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF19031">other</a> <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14460">nuances</a>.</p>
<p>The new Labor government has ordered an independent review of the fund. For this review to fulfil <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/30/former-australian-chief-scientist-to-head-review-of-carbon-credit-scheme-after-whistleblower-revelations">its brief</a>, all unintended harms must be taken into account. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-central-climate-policy-pays-people-to-grow-trees-that-already-existed-taxpayers-and-the-environment-deserve-better-186900">Australia’s central climate policy pays people to grow trees that already existed. Taxpayers – and the environment – deserve better</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186778/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Penelope Jones receives funding from the Northern Territory Department of Health and has previously received funding from the Northern Territory Environment Protection Authority. She also receives funding from ACT Health, the Tasmanian Department of Health, and the Commonwealth Department of Home Affairs, Asthma Australia and the Tasmanian Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bowman has received funding to study fire ecology and management from the Australian Research Council (ARC), the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO) and Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fay Johnston receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the National Environment Science Program, the Health Departments of the Northern Territory, Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania, and the Tasmania Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Program.</span></em></p>Savanna grasslands are burnt early in the dry season to reduce the chance of large fires later. But it’s making air pollution worse.Penelope Jones, Research Fellow in Environmental Health, University of TasmaniaDavid Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of TasmaniaFay Johnston, Professor, Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1669712022-07-27T20:13:12Z2022-07-27T20:13:12ZClimate change killed 40 million Australian mangroves in 2015. Here’s why they’ll probably never grow back<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472741/original/file-20220706-23-swt5as.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C53%2C8892%2C6216&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norman Duke</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Environmental scientists see flora, fauna and phenomena the rest of us rarely do. In this series, we’ve invited them to share their unique <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/photos-from-the-field-92499">photos from the field</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>In the summer of 2015-2016, some 40 million <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF16322">mangroves shrivelled up and died</a> across the wild Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia, after extremely dry weather from a severe El Niño event saw <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-71330-0_9">coastal water plunge 40 centimetres</a>. </p>
<p>The low water level lasted about six months, and the mangroves <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.822136">died of thirst</a>. Seven years later, they have yet to recover. My new research, shortly to be published in PLOS Climate, is the first to realise the full scale of this catastrophe, and understand why it occurred. </p>
<p>This event, I discovered, is the world’s worst incidence of climate-related mangrove tree deaths in recorded history. Over 76 square kilometres of mangroves were killed, releasing nearly one million tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere.</p>
<p>But this event, while unprecedented in scale, is not unique. My research also discovered evidence of another mass die-back of mangroves in the region in 1982 – the same year the Great Barrier Reef suffered its <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aan8048">first mass bleaching event</a>. </p>
<p>The mangroves took 15 years to recover. This time, we won’t be so lucky. </p>
<h2>Mangroves are immensely important</h2>
<p>In Samoa, El Niño-driven sea level drops are called “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00276.1">Taimasa</a>” because of the putrid smell of decaying marine life from long-exposed corals, when sea levels remained low for months on end. </p>
<p>In northern Australia, Taimasa conditions in 2015 left mangroves at higher elevations exposed for at least six months. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.822136">Without regular flushing and wetting of tides</a>, shoreline mangroves don’t stand a chance. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472742/original/file-20220706-26-dgj17e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472742/original/file-20220706-26-dgj17e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472742/original/file-20220706-26-dgj17e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472742/original/file-20220706-26-dgj17e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472742/original/file-20220706-26-dgj17e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472742/original/file-20220706-26-dgj17e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472742/original/file-20220706-26-dgj17e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472742/original/file-20220706-26-dgj17e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dieback in 2015 was characterised by wide swaths of dead mangrove trees behind surviving trees fringing the sea edge, as seen here during aerial surveys of the Gulf of Carpentaria in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norman Duke</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.317.5834.41b">Mangroves are enormously valuable</a> coastal ecosystems. Healthy mangrove ecosystems not only buffer shorelines against rising sea levels, but they also provide valuable protection against erosion, abundant carbon sinks, shelter for animals, nursery habitat, and food for marine life.</p>
<p>These benefits have cultural and economic value, with widespread <a href="https://doi.org/10.18356/0791f9de-en">significance to local communities</a>.</p>
<p>The mass die-back event of 2015 was <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-likely-behind-worst-recorded-mangrove-dieback-in-northern-australia-71880">widely reported</a> in national and international news, with shocking images emerging from the remote region. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472743/original/file-20220706-14-n67zc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472743/original/file-20220706-14-n67zc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472743/original/file-20220706-14-n67zc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472743/original/file-20220706-14-n67zc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472743/original/file-20220706-14-n67zc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472743/original/file-20220706-14-n67zc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472743/original/file-20220706-14-n67zc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472743/original/file-20220706-14-n67zc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The extensive dieback characteristically bordered higher elevation edges of parched saltpans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norman Duke</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although the cause was unknown at the time, the implications of such catastrophic damage were immense for local and regional communities, natural coastal ecosystems and the fisheries that depend on them.</p>
<p>Access was difficult and expensive, and environmental records for the region were scarce. But after four years of <a href="https://eatlas.org.au/nesp-twq-4/mangrove-dieback-4-13">research </a>, <a href="https://www.nespnorthern.edu.au/projects/nesp/gulf-mangrove-dieback/">we uncovered</a> evidence this event was indeed a dramatic consequence of climate change. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472751/original/file-20220706-17-b7589t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472751/original/file-20220706-17-b7589t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472751/original/file-20220706-17-b7589t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472751/original/file-20220706-17-b7589t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472751/original/file-20220706-17-b7589t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472751/original/file-20220706-17-b7589t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472751/original/file-20220706-17-b7589t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472751/original/file-20220706-17-b7589t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Field surveys involved measuring the location of live and dead trees in relation to precise levels of elevation across the tidal profile. Also noted was the unusually young age of trees being less than 20 years old. This indicates high levels of repeated disruption.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norman Duke</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why the mangroves probably won’t recover this time</h2>
<p>Our research reveals the presence of a previously unrecognised “collapse-recovery cycle” of mangroves along Gulf shorelines. The mangroves, damaged in 1982, are now attempting to recover again after the mass-death event in 2015. </p>
<p>But, at least three factors have changed since 1982, leaving recovery less likely.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/la-nina-just-raised-sea-levels-in-the-western-pacific-by-up-to-20cm-this-height-will-be-normal-by-2050-173504">La Niña just raised sea levels in the western Pacific by up to 20cm. This height will be normal by 2050</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For one, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15538">sea levels have risen</a> dramatically due to climate change, causing erosion. This places escalating pressure on tide-fed wetlands to retreat towards higher land. </p>
<p>Younger trees are essential for future mangrove habitat. But upland, environmental conditions for newly established seedlings can be deadly. Landward pressures of bushfires, feral pigs and weed infestations are made far worse by the catastrophic sudden drops in sea level associated with severe El Niño events. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472746/original/file-20220706-15-dgrlr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472746/original/file-20220706-15-dgrlr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472746/original/file-20220706-15-dgrlr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472746/original/file-20220706-15-dgrlr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472746/original/file-20220706-15-dgrlr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472746/original/file-20220706-15-dgrlr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472746/original/file-20220706-15-dgrlr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472746/original/file-20220706-15-dgrlr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The loss of shoreline mangrove habitat around Karumba in the Gulf of Carpentaria, shown in these before and after views, are expected to have a massive impact on commercial and recreational fisheries of the region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norman Duke</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Two, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-71330-0_9">localised storms</a>, such as tropical cyclones, have become increasingly severe. At least two particularly severe cyclones struck the Gulf of Carpentaria coast: Owen in 2018, and Trevor in 2019. A severe flood event also hit the region in 2019. </p>
<p>The cyclone impacts were notable and extreme. Piles of dead mangrove timber were swept up and driven across tidal areas, bulldozing any newly established trees, as well as sprouting survivors.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472749/original/file-20220706-26-9keo6n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472749/original/file-20220706-26-9keo6n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472749/original/file-20220706-26-9keo6n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472749/original/file-20220706-26-9keo6n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472749/original/file-20220706-26-9keo6n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472749/original/file-20220706-26-9keo6n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472749/original/file-20220706-26-9keo6n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472749/original/file-20220706-26-9keo6n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Uprooted mangrove trees and the eroded mudbank marks the additional damage along shorelines of Limmen Bight, caused by severe tropical cyclone Owen in late 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norman Duke</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472750/original/file-20220706-21-uwrjml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472750/original/file-20220706-21-uwrjml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472750/original/file-20220706-21-uwrjml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472750/original/file-20220706-21-uwrjml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472750/original/file-20220706-21-uwrjml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472750/original/file-20220706-21-uwrjml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472750/original/file-20220706-21-uwrjml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472750/original/file-20220706-21-uwrjml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stark and eerily silent mangroves stripped of foliage along a small tidal channel near the Robinson River after severe tropical cyclone Trevor in early 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norman Duke</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And three, the threat of future Taimasa low sea level events <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0008-8">appear imminent</a>, as evidence points to a link between climate change and severe El Niño and La Niña events. Indeed, El Niños and La Niñas have become more deadly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0353-3">over the last 50 years</a>, and the long-term damage they inflict are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0008-8">expected to escalate</a>. </p>
<p>Under these circumstances, the potential for the mangroves to recover are understandably low.</p>
<h2>Protecting these vital ecosystems</h2>
<p>These new findings make us more aware of the vulnerability of shoreline ecosystems, and the benefits we’re losing. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-likely-behind-worst-recorded-mangrove-dieback-in-northern-australia-71880#">$30 million fishing industry</a> relies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa092">on these mangroves</a>, including for redleg banana prawns, mudcrabs and fin fish. When the El Niño of 2015-2016 struck, redleg banana prawn fishers reported their <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-el-nino-hit-this-banana-prawn-fishery-hard-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-their-experience-139852">lowest-ever catches</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-el-nino-hit-this-banana-prawn-fishery-hard-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-their-experience-139852">An El Niño hit this banana prawn fishery hard. Here’s what we can learn from their experience</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Mangroves also help stabilise shorelines by buffering otherwise exposed areas from erosion. Such shoreline protection is crucial as sea levels continue to rise rapidly, coupled with increasingly severe storm waves and winds.</p>
<p>Healthy living mangroves are among the world’s <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n5/full/ngeo1123.html">most carbon-rich forests</a>, binding and holding considerable carbon reserves both in their woody structure and below ground in peaty sediments. </p>
<p>Losing mangroves in the Gulf released more than 850,000 tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere, across both mass dieback events. That’s similar to 1,000 jumbo jets flying return from Sydney to Paris. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472748/original/file-20220706-20-s1hvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472748/original/file-20220706-20-s1hvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472748/original/file-20220706-20-s1hvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472748/original/file-20220706-20-s1hvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472748/original/file-20220706-20-s1hvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472748/original/file-20220706-20-s1hvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472748/original/file-20220706-20-s1hvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472748/original/file-20220706-20-s1hvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extensive 2015 loss of shoreline mangroves bordering Limmen Bight was characterised by standing dead trees in 2017, before being swept and scoured by severe tropical cyclone Owen in early 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norman Duke</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472752/original/file-20220706-21-1zbk0z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472752/original/file-20220706-21-1zbk0z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472752/original/file-20220706-21-1zbk0z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472752/original/file-20220706-21-1zbk0z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472752/original/file-20220706-21-1zbk0z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472752/original/file-20220706-21-1zbk0z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472752/original/file-20220706-21-1zbk0z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472752/original/file-20220706-21-1zbk0z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Close to the Robinson River in the Northern Territory, mangrove survivors from the 2015 Taimasa event were unable to escape damage by severe tropical cyclone Trevor in early 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norman Duke</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s critical these buried carbon reserves remain intact, but this will occur only if living vegetation on the surface remains healthy and protected. </p>
<p>Mangroves are also like the kidneys of the coast. Losing them will amplify pollutants in runoff, with excess nutrients, sediments and agricultural chemicals travelling unmitigated into the sea. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-sharks-in-seagrass-to-manatees-in-mangroves-weve-found-large-marine-species-in-some-surprising-places-116177">From sharks in seagrass to manatees in mangroves, we've found large marine species in some surprising places</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>They need greater monitoring</h2>
<p>Tropical mangroves – as well as saltmarsh-saltpans, the other part of tidal wetlands – need much greater protection, and more effective maintenance with regular health checks from dedicated national shoreline monitoring. </p>
<p>Our aerial surveys of more than 10,000 kilometres of north Australian coastlines have made a start. We’ve recorded environmental conditions and drivers of shoreline change for <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/sites/default/files/env/pages/bcefac9b-ebc5-4013-9c88-a356280c202c/files/shoreline-ecological-assessmenta.pdf">north-western Australia</a>, <a href="https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/56006/">eastern Cape York Peninsula</a>, <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/mo8dcq1322qv5c3/AABMThHiAMEpd2-l88c31nEma/2015?dl=0&preview=15+28+TropWATER+Mangrove+and+freshwater+wetland+habitat+status.pdf&subfolder_nav_tracking=1">Torres Strait islands</a> and, of course, the <a href="https://www.nespnorthern.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Volume-1-Aerial-surveys-final-report.pdf">Gulf of Carpentaria</a>. </p>
<p>As the climate continues to change, it’s vital to keep a close eye on our changing shoreline wetlands and to ensure we’re better prepared next time another El Niño disaster strikes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mangroves-from-space-30-years-of-satellite-images-are-helping-us-understand-how-climate-change-threatens-these-valuable-forests-156040">Mangroves from space: 30 years of satellite images are helping us understand how climate change threatens these valuable forests</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166971/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Norman Duke received funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program (NESP) and administered and managed by their Tropical Water Quality Hub and the Northern Australia Environmental Resources Hub. Supplemental funding was also received indirectly from CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, the Northern Territory Government’s Department of Environment, Parks and Water Security, and World Animal Protection. </span></em></p>This event was the world’s worst incidence of mangrove tree deaths in recorded history. These photos show the devastating scale of this disaster.Norman Duke, Professor of Mangrove Ecology, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1783132022-03-06T18:59:09Z2022-03-06T18:59:09ZExtinction crisis: native mammals are disappearing in Northern Australia, but few people are watching<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449970/original/file-20220304-23-ctaua2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C0%2C5145%2C3445&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the time Australia was colonised by Europeans, an estimated <a href="http://www.revistas-conacyt.unam.mx/therya/index.php/THERYA/article/view/236">180 mammal species</a> lived in the continent’s northern savannas. The landscape teemed with animals, from microbats to rock-wallabies and northern quolls. Many of these mammals were found nowhere else on Earth. </p>
<p>An unidentified <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/ZO14029">account</a> from the Normanton district of Northwest Queensland, dating back to 1897, told of the abundance:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“There were thousands of millions of those rats (<em>Rattus villosissimus</em>), and as most Gulf identities may remember, after them came a plague of native cats (the Northern Quoll). </p>
<p>These extended from 18 miles west of the Flinders (River) to within 40 miles of Normanton, and they cleaned up all our tucker.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But tragically, in the years since, many of these mammals have disappeared. Four species have become extinct and nine <a href="https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:35c5b26">face the same fate</a> in the next two decades.</p>
<p>And we know relatively little about this homegrown crisis. Monitoring of these species has been lacking for many decades – and as mammal numbers have declined, the knowledge gaps have become worse.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="savanna, trees and rock face" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449972/original/file-20220304-19-1hy3nsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449972/original/file-20220304-19-1hy3nsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449972/original/file-20220304-19-1hy3nsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449972/original/file-20220304-19-1hy3nsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449972/original/file-20220304-19-1hy3nsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449972/original/file-20220304-19-1hy3nsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449972/original/file-20220304-19-1hy3nsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Northern Australia’s savanna regions once teemed with mammal life.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A precipitous decline</h2>
<p>Northern Australia savanna comprises the top half of Queensland and the Northern Territory and the top quarter of Western Australia. It covers 1.9 million square kilometres, or 26% of the Australian landmass.</p>
<p>Species already extinct in Northern Australia are: </p>
<ul>
<li>burrowing bettong</li>
<li>Victoria River district nabarlek (possibly extinct)</li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Black footed Tree Rat" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449978/original/file-20220304-15-rqqud1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449978/original/file-20220304-15-rqqud1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449978/original/file-20220304-15-rqqud1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449978/original/file-20220304-15-rqqud1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449978/original/file-20220304-15-rqqud1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449978/original/file-20220304-15-rqqud1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449978/original/file-20220304-15-rqqud1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Black-footed tree rat, at risk of extinction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.martinwillisphotographs.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<ul>
<li>Capricornian rabbit-rat</li>
<li>Bramble Cay melomys.</li>
</ul>
<p>The Northern Australia species identified <a href="https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:35c5b26">at risk</a> of becoming extinct within 20 years are:</p>
<ul>
<li>northern hopping-mouse</li>
<li>Carpentarian rock-rat</li>
<li>black-footed tree rat (Kimberley and Top End)</li>
<li>Top End nabarlek</li>
<li>Kimberley brush-tailed phascogale</li>
<li>brush-tailed rabbit-rat (Kimberley and Top End)</li>
<li>northern brush-tailed phascogale </li>
<li>Tiwi Islands brush-tail rabbit-rat</li>
<li>northern bettong.</li>
</ul>
<p>Many other mammal species have been added to the endangered list in recent years, including koalas, the northern spotted-tailed quoll and spectacled flying foxes.</p>
<p>So what’s driving the decline? For some animals, we don’t know the exact reasons. But for others they include global warming, pest species, changed fire regimes, grazing by introduced herbivores and diseases.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-laws-failed-these-endangered-flying-foxes-at-every-turn-on-saturday-cairns-council-will-put-another-nail-in-the-coffin-141116">Our laws failed these endangered flying-foxes at every turn. On Saturday, Cairns council will put another nail in the coffin</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Monitoring is crucial</h2>
<p>There’s no doubt some mammal species in Northern Australia are heading towards extinction. But information is limited because monitoring of these populations and their ecosystems is severely lacking.</p>
<p>Monitoring is crucial to species conservation. It enables scientists to protect an animal’s habitat, and understand the rate of decline and what processes are driving it.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/14/3/158">Our research</a> found most of Northern Australia lacks monitoring of species or ecosystems. </p>
<p>Monitoring mostly comprises long-term projects in three national parks in the Northern Territory. The trends for mammals across the region must be estimated from these few sites.</p>
<p>More recent monitoring sites have been established in Western Australia’s Kimberley. Very few fauna monitoring programs exist in Queensland savannas.</p>
<p>The lack of monitoring hampers conservation efforts. For example, researchers don’t know the status of the Queensland subspecies of black‐footed tree‐rat because the species is not monitored at all.</p>
<p>Research and monitoring efforts have declined significantly over the past couple of decades. Reasons for this include, but are not limited to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/13/environment-funding-slashed-by-third-since-coalition-took-office">massive reduction</a> in federal environment funding since 2013 and substantial reductions in some state and territory environment funding</p></li>
<li><p>reduced capacity of government-unded institutions devoted to ecosystem and species research </p></li>
<li><p>the existence of only two universities in northern Australia with an ecological research focus</p></li>
<li><p>a reliance on remote sensing and vegetation condition monitoring, which does not detect animal trends.</p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-threatened-species-plan-has-failed-on-several-counts-without-change-more-extinctions-are-assured-163434">Australia’s threatened species plan has failed on several counts. Without change, more extinctions are assured</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="conservationists rest near vehicle" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449976/original/file-20220304-36214-r9uafm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449976/original/file-20220304-36214-r9uafm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449976/original/file-20220304-36214-r9uafm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449976/original/file-20220304-36214-r9uafm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449976/original/file-20220304-36214-r9uafm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449976/original/file-20220304-36214-r9uafm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449976/original/file-20220304-36214-r9uafm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Monitoring helps conservationists better protect a threatened animal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AUSTRALIAN WILDLIFE CONSERVANCY</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The lesson of the Bramble Cay Melomys</h2>
<p>An avalanche of research shows increasing rates of decline in animal populations and extinctions. Australia has the <a href="http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1417301112">worst</a> mammal extinction rate of any country.</p>
<p>Yet governments in Australia have largely sat on their heels as the biodiversity crisis worsens. </p>
<p>A Senate committee was in 2018 charged with investigating <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/Faunalextinction2019">Australia’s faunal extinctions</a>. It has not yet produced its final report.</p>
<p>In September last year, the federal environment department <a href="https://www.awe.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/threatened/publications/100-priority-species">announced</a> 100 “priority species” would be selected to help focus recovery actions. But more than 1,800 species are listed as <a href="https://www.awe.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/threatened/publications/100-priority-species">threatened</a> in Australia. Prioritising just 100 is unlikely to help the rest.</p>
<p>The lack of threatened species monitoring in Australia creates a policy blindfold that prevents actions vital to preventing extinctions.</p>
<p>Nowhere is this more true than in the case of the <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WR16157">Bramble Cay Melomys</a>. The nocturnal rodent was confirmed extinct in 2016 due to flooding of its island home in the Torres Strait, caused by global warming. </p>
<p>The species had previously been acknowledged as one of the <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WR16157">rarest</a> mammals on Earth – yet a <a href="https://www.awe.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/threatened/recovery-plans/recovery-plan-bramble-cay-melomys-melomys-rubicola-2008">plan</a> to recover its numbers was never properly implemented. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="small rodent in vegetation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449980/original/file-20220304-17-1192scx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449980/original/file-20220304-17-1192scx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449980/original/file-20220304-17-1192scx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449980/original/file-20220304-17-1192scx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449980/original/file-20220304-17-1192scx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449980/original/file-20220304-17-1192scx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449980/original/file-20220304-17-1192scx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Bramble Cay Melomys was declared extinct in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland Government</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A crisis on our watch</h2>
<p>Conservation scientists and recovery teams are working across Northern Australia to help species and ecosystems recover. But they need resources, policies and long-term commitment from governments.</p>
<p>Indigenous custodians who work on the land can provide significant skills and resources to save species. If Traditional Owners could combine forces with non‐Indigenous researchers and conservation managers – and with adequate support and incentives – we could make substantial ground.</p>
<p>Indigenous Protected Areas, national parks and private conservation areas provide some protection, but this network needs expansion. </p>
<p>We propose establishing a network of monitoring sites by prioritising particular <a href="https://www.awe.gov.au/agriculture-land/land/nrs/science/ibra/australias-bioregion-framework">bioregions</a> – large, geographically distinct areas of land with common characteristics. </p>
<p>Building a network of monitoring sites would not just help prevent extinctions, it would also support livelihoods in remote Northern Australia. </p>
<p>Policies determining research and monitoring investment need to be reset, and new approaches implemented urgently. Crucially, funding must be adequate for the task. </p>
<p>Without these measures, more species will become extinct on our watch.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178313/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noel D Preece received funding from The Nature Conservancy for work that led to this article. He is a member of the Spectacled Flying-fox Recovery Team. He has worked in northern Australia since the mid-1980s.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Fitzsimons is affiliated with The Nature Conservancy Australia. </span></em></p>Nine mammals in Northern Australia are at risk of extinction in the next two decades – and we know little about this home-grown crisis.Noel D. Preece, Adjunct Asssociate Professor, James Cook UniversityJames Fitzsimons, Adjunct Professor in Environmental Sciences, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1727732021-12-06T19:06:11Z2021-12-06T19:06:11ZWe are professional fire watchers, and we’re astounded by the scale of fires in remote Australia right now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435752/original/file-20211206-21-bgeg21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5391%2C3581&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While southern Australia experienced a wet winter and a soggy spring, northern Australia has seen the opposite. Extreme fire weather in October and November led to bushfires across <a href="https://firenorth.org.au/">120,000 square kilometres</a> of southern savanna regions.</p>
<p>Significant fires continue to burn in the Kimberley, the Top End, Cape York and the northern deserts. And while recent rain across the central deserts has reduced the current fire risk, it will significantly increase fuel loads which creates the potential for large wildfires in summer.</p>
<p>We are professional fire watchers. The lead author of this article, Rohan Fisher, <a href="https://firenorth.org.au/">maps and monitors</a> fires across the tropical savannas and rangelands that comprise 70% of the Australian continent. The scale of burning we’re now seeing astounds us – almost as much as the lack of interest they generate.</p>
<p>This continent’s fire ecology is poorly understood by most Australians, despite recent significant bushfire events close to big cities. But as we enter the Pyrocene age under worsening climate change, good fire knowledge is vitally important. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-you-have-unfinished-business-its-time-to-let-our-fire-people-care-for-this-land-135196">Australia, you have unfinished business. It's time to let our 'fire people' care for this land</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Indigenous man and child walk on burnt landscape" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435758/original/file-20211206-15-1szo1gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435758/original/file-20211206-15-1szo1gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435758/original/file-20211206-15-1szo1gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435758/original/file-20211206-15-1szo1gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435758/original/file-20211206-15-1szo1gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435758/original/file-20211206-15-1szo1gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435758/original/file-20211206-15-1szo1gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On the Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia, a Kandiwal man and his child walk through country burnt by traditional fires. Such ancient methods must be expanded to help Australia survive the Pyrocene.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Philip Schubert/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>In the desert, fire and water are linked</h2>
<p>Fires in arid Australia are extensive, largely unmanaged, often destructive and significantly under-reported. Improving their management involvement is crucial to both Traditional Owners and the ecological health of our continent. </p>
<p>To improve pyro-literacy, we developed a <a href="https://savannafiremapping.com/nafi-mobile-app/">mobile app</a> to map fires across most of Australia in real-time. </p>
<p>This year, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-30/extreme-heatwave-to-hit-kimberley-and-the-pilbara/100658568">Western Australia</a> and the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-19/nt-heatwave-conditions-peak-record-temperatures-bom/100549312">Northern Territory</a> experienced serious heatwaves late in the year and a late start to the wet season. This provided the perfect bushfire conditions.</p>
<p>In contrast, central Australia has experienced rare flooding rains, including at Alice Springs which recorded the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-13/alice-springs-wettest-november-on-record/100616212">wettest November</a> on record. This creates dangerous fuel loads heading into summer.</p>
<p>In the desert, water and fire is coupled in both space and time. Fire burns where water flows, because that’s where fuel – in the form of vegetation – is heaviest. </p>
<p>The below satellite image from the Pilbara illustrates this point. It shows the path of an arid-zone fire flowing like water along dry creeks and drainage lines. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434382/original/file-20211129-15-q3vm4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434382/original/file-20211129-15-q3vm4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434382/original/file-20211129-15-q3vm4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434382/original/file-20211129-15-q3vm4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434382/original/file-20211129-15-q3vm4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434382/original/file-20211129-15-q3vm4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434382/original/file-20211129-15-q3vm4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Arid-zone fire travelling along dry creeks and drainage lines.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Where country is not managed for fire, it can lead to catastrophic outcomes. </p>
<p>The incidence of previous fire also influences fire spread. Without the regular application of fire, large tracts of desert can accumulate heavy fuel loads, primed for ignition. </p>
<p>Over a few months in 2011, our data show more than 400,000 square kilometres in central Australia burned – almost twice the size of Victoria. It was one of the <a href="https://austrangesoc.com.au/range-management-newsletter-12-2/#article_166">largest</a> single fire events in recent Australian history and coincided with the wet La Nina period in 2010-12. </p>
<p>Watching from satellites in space, we mapped the spread of the fires in near-real time, as this video shows:</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yJJPm0cUTJ4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A hot spot animation of the 2011 fire season in central Australia.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fire management through time</h2>
<p>For many thousands of years, Australia’s Indigenous people have skilfully burned landscapes to manage country. <a href="https://www.dpaw.wa.gov.au/management/fire/fire-and-the-environment/41-traditional-aboriginal-burning">Most fires</a> are relatively low-intensity or “cool” and do not burn large areas. This results in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-you-have-unfinished-business-its-time-to-let-our-fire-people-care-for-this-land-135196">fine-scale mosaic</a> of different vegetation types and fuel ages, reducing the chance of large fires.</p>
<p>Researchers have <a href="https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/20063159465">looked back in time</a> to provide insight into fire management as it once was. This was done using aerial photography taken in the 1940s and 1950s in preparation for missile testing at Woomera in South Australia. </p>
<p>The below aerial photo from 1953 reveals a complex mosaic of burn patterns and burn ages – a result of fine-scale land management by Traditional Owners. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434607/original/file-20211130-18-1x8y4pf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434607/original/file-20211130-18-1x8y4pf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434607/original/file-20211130-18-1x8y4pf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434607/original/file-20211130-18-1x8y4pf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434607/original/file-20211130-18-1x8y4pf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434607/original/file-20211130-18-1x8y4pf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434607/original/file-20211130-18-1x8y4pf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 1953 aerial photo of the Western Desert showing a complex fine scale fire mosaic resulting from Indigenous burning.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But following the displacement of Indigenous people and the decline of traditional burning practices, fire regimes changed dramatically. The average fire size today is many orders of magnitude <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Andrew-Burbidge/publication/284776990_Evidence_of_altered_fire_regimes_in_the_Western_Desert_regime_of_Australia/links/565bca3508aeafc2aac62299/Evidence-of-altered-fire-regimes-in-the-Western-Desert-regime-of-Australia.pdf">greater</a> than those set under Aboriginal management. </p>
<p>The change has been <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wr/wr05032">implicated</a> in the decline and extinction of some mammals and plant species. One massive and fast-moving October fire in the Tanami desert – home to endangered bilbies – burned nearly 7,000 square kilometres over a few days, our data show.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-all-blackened-landscapes-are-bad-we-must-learn-to-love-the-right-kind-129547">Not all blackened landscapes are bad. We must learn to love the right kind</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434379/original/file-20211129-25-ilvsxy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434379/original/file-20211129-25-ilvsxy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434379/original/file-20211129-25-ilvsxy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434379/original/file-20211129-25-ilvsxy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434379/original/file-20211129-25-ilvsxy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434379/original/file-20211129-25-ilvsxy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434379/original/file-20211129-25-ilvsxy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The massive and fast-moving Tanami desert fire burnt nearly 7,000 km2 over a few days.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Back to desert burning</h2>
<p>Like everywhere on this continent, fire in our vast deserts must be well-managed. Getting people back on desert country to reintroduce complex fire mosaics is difficult work but will have <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/wf20057">significant</a> benefits for both nature and Indigenous people.</p>
<p>Challenges include building capacity amongst ranger groups and communities, overcoming legal and insurance hurdles and employing novel techniques to apply “cool” fires at a near-continental scale. </p>
<p>The role of Indigenous ranger groups is critical here. Organisations such as <a href="https://10deserts.org/">10 Deserts</a> – a partnership between Indigenous and conservation organisations – are supporting desert fire work. </p>
<p><a href="https://10deserts.org/committee/peter_murray/">Peter Murray</a> is chair of the 10 Deserts project and a Ngurrara Traditional Owner from the Great Sandy Desert. On the importance of this work, he says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Right now, we’re working on Indigenous “right way” cultural burning as a means of preventing wildfires. We’re developing dedicated male and female ranger teams to look after the land and develop tourism. And we’re encouraging traditional owners to return to the desert to share and exchange knowledge as well as collecting and storing that knowledge to pass onto younger generations.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Indigenous man burning country" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434611/original/file-20211130-27-1i2yotw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434611/original/file-20211130-27-1i2yotw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434611/original/file-20211130-27-1i2yotw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434611/original/file-20211130-27-1i2yotw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434611/original/file-20211130-27-1i2yotw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434611/original/file-20211130-27-1i2yotw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434611/original/file-20211130-27-1i2yotw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indigenous rangers are crucial when caring for fire-prone landscapes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kanyirninpa Jukurrpa/Gareth Catt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Living in the Pyrocene</h2>
<p>As climate change worsens, we’re now living in a global fire age dubbed <a href="https://www.stephenpyne.com/disc.htm">the Pyrocene</a>. This will bring challenges across the Australian continent. </p>
<p>Throughout remote Australia, increasing extreme fire weather will see more severe bushfires. Good fire management in these landscapes is urgently needed. In the northern tropical savannas, Indigenous-led fire management at the landscape scale is already <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-best-fire-management-system-is-in-northern-australia-and-its-led-by-indigenous-land-managers-133071">producing</a> some of the worlds best fire management outcomes.</p>
<p>The challenge is to introduce similar scales of fire management across our vast deserts. These regions are rich with nature and culture, and they deserve far more attention than they’ve received to date. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-big-ideas-how-australia-can-tackle-climate-change-while-restoring-nature-culture-and-communities-172156">5 big ideas: how Australia can tackle climate change while restoring nature, culture and communities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172773/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rohan Fisher receives funding from the federal Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment and the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Burrows is affiliated with the Liberal party </span></em></p>Fires in arid Australia are extensive, largely unmanaged, often destructive and significantly under-reported.Rohan Fisher, Information Technology for Development Researcher, Charles Darwin UniversityNeil Burrows, Adjunct professor, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1715002021-11-29T19:11:09Z2021-11-29T19:11:09ZPhotos from the field: leaving habitats unburnt for longer could help save little mammals in northern Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434326/original/file-20211129-13-wv8taj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C579%2C695&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Monjon, a small, native mammal in the tropical savanna under threat from fire</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Bettini</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Environmental scientists see flora, fauna and phenomena the rest of us rarely do. In this series, we’ve invited them to share their unique <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/photos-from-the-field-92499">photos from the field</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Native small mammals such as bandicoots, tree-rats and possums have been in dire decline across Northern Australia’s vast savannas for the last 30 years – and we’ve only just begun to understand why.</p>
<p><a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.12323">Feral cats</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-mystery-of-the-top-ends-vanishing-wildlife-and-the-unexpected-culprits-143268">livestock</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-and-national-park-managers-are-failing-northern-australias-vanishing-mammals-10089">wildfires</a>, and the complex ways these threats <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/csp2.52">interact</a>, have all played a crucial role. But, until now, <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-and-national-park-managers-are-failing-northern-australias-vanishing-mammals-10089">scientists have struggled to pinpoint</a> which factor was the biggest threat.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2021.739817/abstract">new research</a> points to fire. In the most comprehensive study of small mammals and the threats they face in northern Australia, we found the length of time a habitat is left unburnt determines the number of different mammal species present, and their abundance.</p>
<p>This is important because Northern Australia’s tropical savanna is one of the most fire-prone regions on the planet. Our findings suggest we need to change the way we manage wildfires so we can help native wildlife come back from the brink. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434337/original/file-20211129-17-3y5usi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434337/original/file-20211129-17-3y5usi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434337/original/file-20211129-17-3y5usi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434337/original/file-20211129-17-3y5usi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434337/original/file-20211129-17-3y5usi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434337/original/file-20211129-17-3y5usi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434337/original/file-20211129-17-3y5usi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434337/original/file-20211129-17-3y5usi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wunaamin Miliwundi Range – stunning tropical savanna where wildfires pose a huge threat to wildlife.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Bettini</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The last mammal stronghold</h2>
<p>The remote and breathtakingly beautiful Northern Kimberley is the only place in mainland Australia where there have been <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP102445&dsid=DS4">no mammal extinctions</a>. Instead, it’s a stronghold for species that are now extinct or in decline elsewhere in northern Australia, such as golden-backed tree-rats, brush-tailed rabbit-rats and northern quolls. </p>
<p>It’s also home to species found nowhere else in Australia, such as the monjon (the world’s smallest rock-wallaby), the hamster-like Kimberley rock rat, and the enigmatic scaly-tailed possum. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434338/original/file-20211129-19-y9jpjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434338/original/file-20211129-19-y9jpjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434338/original/file-20211129-19-y9jpjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434338/original/file-20211129-19-y9jpjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434338/original/file-20211129-19-y9jpjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434338/original/file-20211129-19-y9jpjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434338/original/file-20211129-19-y9jpjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434338/original/file-20211129-19-y9jpjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Monjon (right) and northern quoll (left), two savanna species under dire threat from wildfires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Bettini</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431873/original/file-20211115-27-1kh5qnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431873/original/file-20211115-27-1kh5qnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431873/original/file-20211115-27-1kh5qnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431873/original/file-20211115-27-1kh5qnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431873/original/file-20211115-27-1kh5qnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431873/original/file-20211115-27-1kh5qnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431873/original/file-20211115-27-1kh5qnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431873/original/file-20211115-27-1kh5qnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A golden-backed tree-rat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Bettini</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434339/original/file-20211129-13-ncfr9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434339/original/file-20211129-13-ncfr9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434339/original/file-20211129-13-ncfr9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434339/original/file-20211129-13-ncfr9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434339/original/file-20211129-13-ncfr9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434339/original/file-20211129-13-ncfr9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434339/original/file-20211129-13-ncfr9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434339/original/file-20211129-13-ncfr9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Golden bandicoot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Bettini</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But wildfires are a significant threat to these small mammals, as well as many other <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/pdf/WF07150">plants and animals</a>, with many officially listed as endangered or vulnerable. </p>
<p>Fire is a fundamental part of savanna ecology, and <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1890/120251">up to 50 million hectares burn each year</a>. This means only a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1071/MU12109">small proportion</a> of the landscape remains unburnt for longer than four years.</p>
<p>This fire-proneness is driven by the monsoon climate. Wet season rainfall causes grass to grow rapidly, and a prolonged dry season causes these grasses to dry out, creating fuel. Lightning and other ignition sources from the mid to the end of the dry season from August to December result in frequent and massive <a href="https://theconversation.com/huge-fires-are-burning-northern-australia-every-year-its-time-to-get-them-under-control-49431">high-intensity wildfires</a>. Climate change may be exacerbating this threat.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434327/original/file-20211129-21-c86l9f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434327/original/file-20211129-21-c86l9f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434327/original/file-20211129-21-c86l9f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434327/original/file-20211129-21-c86l9f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434327/original/file-20211129-21-c86l9f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434327/original/file-20211129-21-c86l9f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434327/original/file-20211129-21-c86l9f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434327/original/file-20211129-21-c86l9f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An out-of-control fire, late in the Kimberley’s dry season.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben Corey</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434329/original/file-20211129-21-ybe4ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434329/original/file-20211129-21-ybe4ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434329/original/file-20211129-21-ybe4ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434329/original/file-20211129-21-ybe4ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434329/original/file-20211129-21-ybe4ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434329/original/file-20211129-21-ybe4ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434329/original/file-20211129-21-ybe4ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434329/original/file-20211129-21-ybe4ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The results of a fire striking late in the dry season, when grassy fuel is abundant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ian Radford</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fire managers, largely <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-best-fire-management-system-is-in-northern-australia-and-its-led-by-indigenous-land-managers-133071">led by Indigenous rangers</a> as well as state government agencies and <a href="https://www.australianwildlife.org/our-work/fire-management-program/">conservation organistations</a>, use low intensity prescribed burning in the early dry season, when vegetation is moist and conditions are cooler. This produces patchy fire scars that limit the spread of the inevitable wildfires later in the dry season.</p>
<p>There’s <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479721006307">ample evidence</a> this approach is <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-best-fire-management-system-is-in-northern-australia-and-its-led-by-indigenous-land-managers-133071">highly effective</a>. And yet, mammals continue to decline, and scientists have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-and-national-park-managers-are-failing-northern-australias-vanishing-mammals-10089">criticised</a> for not having the answers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434330/original/file-20211129-17-gn82fa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434330/original/file-20211129-17-gn82fa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434330/original/file-20211129-17-gn82fa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434330/original/file-20211129-17-gn82fa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434330/original/file-20211129-17-gn82fa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434330/original/file-20211129-17-gn82fa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434330/original/file-20211129-17-gn82fa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434330/original/file-20211129-17-gn82fa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A scaly-tailed possum.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Bettini</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-mystery-of-the-top-ends-vanishing-wildlife-and-the-unexpected-culprits-143268">The mystery of the Top End's vanishing wildlife, and the unexpected culprits</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>We’ve been studying small mammals in the Northern Kimberley for the last ten years, amassing the one of the largest datasets for any study in northern Australia. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2021.739817/abstract">Our work</a> confirms the critical role of feral cats and livestock (such as buffaloes, horses, cattle and donkeys) in mammal declines. Sites with more cats and livestock had fewer native mammals. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434333/original/file-20211129-15-xiz475.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434333/original/file-20211129-15-xiz475.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434333/original/file-20211129-15-xiz475.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434333/original/file-20211129-15-xiz475.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434333/original/file-20211129-15-xiz475.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434333/original/file-20211129-15-xiz475.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434333/original/file-20211129-15-xiz475.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434333/original/file-20211129-15-xiz475.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researcher Ben Corey with a black-footed tree-rat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Chemello</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434335/original/file-20211129-13-r81ls3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434335/original/file-20211129-13-r81ls3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434335/original/file-20211129-13-r81ls3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434335/original/file-20211129-13-r81ls3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434335/original/file-20211129-13-r81ls3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434335/original/file-20211129-13-r81ls3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434335/original/file-20211129-13-r81ls3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434335/original/file-20211129-13-r81ls3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A feral cat caught prowling around the critical native ecosystem of Australia’s topical savanna.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben Corey</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, the most vital factor was vegetation that remained unburnt for four or more years – whether from wildfires or prescribed burns. Sites with longer unburnt vegetation, including with fruiting shrubs and trees, had far more mammals. </p>
<p>We also tested an <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00492.x?casa_token=sybR73ySBoAAAAAA:4OTO-7meAxBkkd1jJIrxUIjoN7HdvrSmWLAs-YuEVy3fm3jP91re5Np-m1nVau7RCo8u0kLSC70gdZE">age-old debate in fire management</a>: does pyrodiversity create greater wildlife diversity? </p>
<p>Pyrodiversity refers to the number of patches within a landscape, with different times since the last fire, and is something fire managers try to achieve.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434343/original/file-20211129-25-t9pf0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434343/original/file-20211129-25-t9pf0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434343/original/file-20211129-25-t9pf0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434343/original/file-20211129-25-t9pf0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434343/original/file-20211129-25-t9pf0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434343/original/file-20211129-25-t9pf0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434343/original/file-20211129-25-t9pf0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434343/original/file-20211129-25-t9pf0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flying to remote monitoring sites, which can be near impossible to access by foot or car.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben Corey</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, we found pyrodiversity had a negative influence on mammals. Unburnt vegetation was the only attribute that explained the higher abundance and diversity of small mammal species.</p>
<p>What’s more, the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10531-020-02010-9">benefits for small mammals</a> increase with the size of the unburnt patch – bigger is better. These longer unburnt patches provide critical resources such as food from fruiting trees and shrubs, and shelter including tree hollows and hollow logs. They also help small mammals to evade feral cats.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434341/original/file-20211129-15-1lwaxws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434341/original/file-20211129-15-1lwaxws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434341/original/file-20211129-15-1lwaxws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434341/original/file-20211129-15-1lwaxws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434341/original/file-20211129-15-1lwaxws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434341/original/file-20211129-15-1lwaxws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434341/original/file-20211129-15-1lwaxws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434341/original/file-20211129-15-1lwaxws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prince Regent National Park, in the remote north-west Kimberley.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben Corey</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434340/original/file-20211129-23-tk1atm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434340/original/file-20211129-23-tk1atm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434340/original/file-20211129-23-tk1atm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434340/original/file-20211129-23-tk1atm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434340/original/file-20211129-23-tk1atm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434340/original/file-20211129-23-tk1atm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434340/original/file-20211129-23-tk1atm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434340/original/file-20211129-23-tk1atm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Longer unburnt habitat in Prince Regent National Park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben Corey</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A conundrum for fire managers</h2>
<p>Our findings present fire managers with a conundrum. While it’s vital to mammals, large unburnt patches are often targeted because they burn more easily and are often viewed as being risky.</p>
<p>We’re not suggesting there should be no prescribed burning or that current fire management has adverse effects on small mammals. In fact, we need around 25% of savannas to be burnt under <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/pdf/WF19031">milder fire-weather conditions</a> each year to maintain longer unburnt vegetation and, therefore, achieve the best results for mammals. </p>
<p>However, our study does suggest fire management needs to be more nuanced than simply reducing wildfires. We mustn’t lose sight of the need to look at longer term fire patterns. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434336/original/file-20211129-19-t1z66q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434336/original/file-20211129-19-t1z66q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434336/original/file-20211129-19-t1z66q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434336/original/file-20211129-19-t1z66q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434336/original/file-20211129-19-t1z66q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434336/original/file-20211129-19-t1z66q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434336/original/file-20211129-19-t1z66q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434336/original/file-20211129-19-t1z66q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aerial prescribed burning undertaken in Prince Regent National Park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben Corey</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fire management in northern Australia is already highly sophisticated. Advances in <a href="https://firenorth.org.au/nafi3/">fire scar</a> and <a href="https://incendiarysim.wordpress.com/">landscape</a> mapping mean we have tools at our disposal to take a more strategic approach. </p>
<p>For example, we can identify refuge areas for mammals, as well as areas that are naturally less fire prone. We can decrease the randomness of prescribed burning by focusing on recently burnt areas and landscape features, such as rivers and cliffs, that maximise the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479721019265">stopping power of strategic fire scars</a>.</p>
<p>Indeed, ideas for <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1442-9993.2005.01441.x?casa_token=vzRknlLs49YAAAAA:QRhtauPd3ntAknsgG5qtpJkVDAMDnxb1HzCLrw3gTSW5be7kRH0nDON">more strategic</a> fire management, with <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1442-8903.2011.00595.x">ecologically meaningful</a> management targets, have been championed for some time, and are being <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/pdf/WF18126">further refined</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434342/original/file-20211129-13-16iamgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434342/original/file-20211129-13-16iamgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434342/original/file-20211129-13-16iamgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434342/original/file-20211129-13-16iamgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434342/original/file-20211129-13-16iamgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434342/original/file-20211129-13-16iamgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434342/original/file-20211129-13-16iamgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434342/original/file-20211129-13-16iamgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A low intensity prescribed burn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben Corey</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But monitoring and reporting on this needs to become more widespread, and coordinated across different fire-managed areas. New fire reporting tools, such as the <a href="https://smerf.net.au/">Savanna Monitoring and Evaluation Reporting Framework</a>, will help make this happen. </p>
<p>We realise achieving this across northern Australia’s vast and remote landscapes is a formidable and expensive undertaking. But it’s essential adequate and targeted monitoring is embedded within fire management programs, so we can <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/conl.12685">better track</a> wildlife responses. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-best-fire-management-system-is-in-northern-australia-and-its-led-by-indigenous-land-managers-133071">The world's best fire management system is in northern Australia, and it's led by Indigenous land managers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Corey and Ian Radford are employed by the West Australian Government’s Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leigh-Ann Woolley previously received funding from NESP TSR Hub. She is currently employed by WWF-Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Radford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Northern Australia’s tropical savanna is one of the most fire-prone regions on the planet. We need to change the way we manage fires so we can help native wildlife come back from the brink.Ben Corey, Adjunct Research Associate, Charles Darwin UniversityIan Radford, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Charles Darwin UniversityLeigh-Ann Woolley, Adjunct Research Associate, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1432682020-07-28T20:00:51Z2020-07-28T20:00:51ZThe mystery of the Top End’s vanishing wildlife, and the unexpected culprits<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349788/original/file-20200728-23-1miq6cr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1078%2C810&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A brush-tailed rabbit-rat, one of the small mammals disappearing in northern Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cara Penton</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Only a few decades ago, encountering a bandicoot or quoll around your campsite in the evening was a common and delightful experience across the Top End. Sadly, our campsites are now far less lively.</p>
<p>Northern Australia’s vast uncleared savannas were once considered a crucial safe haven for many species that have suffered severe declines elsewhere. But over the last 30 years, small native mammals (weighing up to five kilograms) have been mysteriously vanishing across the region.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-and-national-park-managers-are-failing-northern-australias-vanishing-mammals-10089">Scientists and national park managers are failing northern Australia’s vanishing mammals</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The reason why the Top End’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-and-national-park-managers-are-failing-northern-australias-vanishing-mammals-10089">mammals have declined so severely</a> has long been unknown, leaving scientists and conservation managers at a loss as to how to stop and reverse this tragic trend.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349819/original/file-20200728-35-cxfc6d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The author smiles at an adorable glider in a little blanket she's holding." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349819/original/file-20200728-35-cxfc6d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349819/original/file-20200728-35-cxfc6d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349819/original/file-20200728-35-cxfc6d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349819/original/file-20200728-35-cxfc6d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349819/original/file-20200728-35-cxfc6d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349819/original/file-20200728-35-cxfc6d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349819/original/file-20200728-35-cxfc6d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alyson Stobo-Wilson with a savanna glider. Gliders are among the mammals rapidly declining in northern Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alyson Stobo-Wilson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320720306960?via%3Dihub">Our major new study</a> helps unravel this longstanding mystery. We found that the collective influence of feral livestock — such as buffaloes, horses, cattle and donkeys — has been largely underestimated. Even at quite low numbers, feral livestock can have a big impact on our high-value conservation areas and the wildlife they support. </p>
<h2>The race for solutions</h2>
<p>In 2010, Kakadu National Park conducted a <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/WR/WR09125">pivotal study</a> on Top End mammals. It found that between 1996 and 2009, the number of native mammal species at survey sites had halved, and the number of individual animals dropped by more than two-thirds. Similar trends have since been observed elsewhere across the Top End. </p>
<p>Given the scale and speed of the mammal declines, the need to find effective solutions is increasingly urgent. It has become a key focus of conservation managers and scientists alike. </p>
<p>The list of <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2011.00164.x">potential causes</a> includes inappropriate fire regimes, feral cats, cane toads, feral livestock, and invasive weeds. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xDNJ_PfaTgM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Many small and medium-sized mammals are in rapid decline in northern Australia.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With limited resources, it’s essential to know which threats to focus on. This is where <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320720306960?via%3Dihub">our study</a> has delivered a major breakthrough.</p>
<p>We looked for patterns of where species have been lost and where they are hanging on. With the help of helicopters to reach many remote areas, we used more than 1,500 “camera traps” (motion-sensor cameras to record mammals) and almost 7,500 animal traps (such as caged traps) to survey 300 sites across the national parks, private conservation reserves and Indigenous lands of the Top End.</p>
<h2>A new spotlight on feral livestock</h2>
<p>We found most parts of the Top End have very few native mammals left. The isolated areas where mammals are persisting have retained good-quality habitat, with a greater variety of plant species and dense shrubs and grasses. </p>
<p>This habitat provides more shelter and food for native mammals, and has fewer cats and dingoes, which hunt more efficiently in open areas. In contrast, sites with degraded habitat have much less food and shelter available, and native mammals are more exposed to predators.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349815/original/file-20200728-27-16s2ri0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Six dark coloured horses roam among sparse trees in the Top End." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349815/original/file-20200728-27-16s2ri0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349815/original/file-20200728-27-16s2ri0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349815/original/file-20200728-27-16s2ri0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349815/original/file-20200728-27-16s2ri0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349815/original/file-20200728-27-16s2ri0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349815/original/file-20200728-27-16s2ri0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349815/original/file-20200728-27-16s2ri0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Feral horses can overgraze and trample over habitat, making it far less suitable for small native mammals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jaana Dielenberg</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Across northern Australia, habitat quality is primarily driven by two factors: bushfires and introduced livestock, either farmed or feral. </p>
<p>Our surveys revealed that areas with more feral livestock have fewer native mammals. This highlights that the role of feral livestock in the Top End’s mammal declines has previously been underestimated.</p>
<p>Even at relatively low densities, feral livestock are detrimental to small mammals. Through overgrazing and trampling, they degrade habitat and reduce the availability of food and shelter for native mammals.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-best-fire-management-system-is-in-northern-australia-and-its-led-by-indigenous-land-managers-133071">The world's best fire management system is in northern Australia, and it's led by Indigenous land managers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Frequent, intense fires also play a big role. Australia’s tropical savannas are among <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-best-fire-management-system-is-in-northern-australia-and-its-led-by-indigenous-land-managers-133071">the most fire-prone</a> on Earth, but fires that are too frequent, too hot and too extensive remove critical food and shelter. </p>
<p>Yet, even if land managers can manage fires to protect biodiversity, for example by reducing the occurrence of large, intense fires, the presence of feral livestock will <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/csp2.52">continue to impede native mammal recovery</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349816/original/file-20200728-25-2o891h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A wild buffalo walks over grass, in front of trees." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349816/original/file-20200728-25-2o891h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349816/original/file-20200728-25-2o891h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349816/original/file-20200728-25-2o891h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349816/original/file-20200728-25-2o891h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349816/original/file-20200728-25-2o891h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349816/original/file-20200728-25-2o891h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349816/original/file-20200728-25-2o891h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even small numbers of feral livestock can play a big role in native mammal declines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Northern Territory Government</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A new way to manage cats</h2>
<p>Cats have helped drive more than <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/112/15/4531.short">20 Australian mammals to extinction</a>. So it’s not surprising we found fewer native mammals at our sample sites where there were more cats. </p>
<p>However, our results suggest the best way to manage the impact of cats in this region may not be to simply kill cats, which is notoriously difficult across vast, remote landscapes. Instead, it may be more effective to manage habitat better, tipping the balance in favour of native mammals and away from their predators. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349817/original/file-20200728-13-sso599.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A striped, ginger cat with shining eyes looks at the camera at night." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349817/original/file-20200728-13-sso599.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349817/original/file-20200728-13-sso599.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349817/original/file-20200728-13-sso599.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349817/original/file-20200728-13-sso599.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349817/original/file-20200728-13-sso599.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349817/original/file-20200728-13-sso599.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349817/original/file-20200728-13-sso599.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A feral cat at one of the study sites. Cats have helped cause more than 20 native mammal extinctions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Northern Territory Government</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The combination of prescribed burning to protect food and shelter resources, and culling feral livestock, might be all that’s needed to support native mammals and reduce the impact of feral cats. </p>
<h2>What about dingoes?</h2>
<p>Many scientists have suggested dingoes could also be part of the solution to reducing cat impacts — as <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/oik.05546">cats are believed to avoid dingoes</a>. With this in mind, we explored the relationship between the two <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ddi.13065">predators in this study</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349820/original/file-20200728-25-17bavnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A brownish motion detection camera trap strapped to a tree." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349820/original/file-20200728-25-17bavnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349820/original/file-20200728-25-17bavnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349820/original/file-20200728-25-17bavnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349820/original/file-20200728-25-17bavnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349820/original/file-20200728-25-17bavnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349820/original/file-20200728-25-17bavnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349820/original/file-20200728-25-17bavnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of more than 1,000 motion detection cameras used in this study.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jaana Dielenberg</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found no evidence dingoes influenced the distribution of feral cats. In fact, survey sites with more dingoes had fewer native small mammals, suggesting a negative impact by dingoes.</p>
<p>But, unlike cats, culling dingoes is not an option because they provide other important ecological roles, and are culturally significant for Indigenous (and non-Indigenous) Australians.</p>
<h2>Controlling herbivores, not predators</h2>
<p>Our study suggests an effective way to halt and reverse Top End mammal losses is to protect and restore habitat. For example, by improving fire management and controlling feral livestock through culling.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ecocheck-australias-vast-majestic-northern-savannas-need-more-care-59897">EcoCheck: Australia's vast, majestic northern savannas need more care</a>
</strong>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>It is also very important to conserve the environments that still have high-quality habitat and healthy mammal communities, such as the high-rainfall areas along the northern Australian coast. These areas provide refuge for many of our most vulnerable mammal species. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349821/original/file-20200728-21-1hpy1zv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photo from a camera trap showing a black-footed tree-rat on its hind legs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349821/original/file-20200728-21-1hpy1zv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349821/original/file-20200728-21-1hpy1zv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349821/original/file-20200728-21-1hpy1zv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349821/original/file-20200728-21-1hpy1zv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349821/original/file-20200728-21-1hpy1zv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349821/original/file-20200728-21-1hpy1zv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349821/original/file-20200728-21-1hpy1zv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The native black-footed tree-rat has had major declines across northern Australia. It’s vulnerable to cats and is now restricted to areas that still have good quality habitat, fewer herbivores and less frequent fire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hugh Davies</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/ecocheck-australias-vast-majestic-northern-savannas-need-more-care-59897">tropical savannas of northern Australia</a> are the largest remaining tract of tropical savanna on Earth and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-rare-discovery-we-found-the-sugar-glider-is-actually-three-species-but-one-is-disappearing-fast-142807">new species</a> are still being discovered.</p>
<p>While there’s more research to be done, it’s crucial we start managing habitat better, before we lose more of our precious mammal species. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>The authors would like to gratefully acknowledge the support from many Indigenous ranger groups, land managers and Traditional Owners. This includes the Warddeken, Bawinanga, Wardaman and Tiwi rangers, the Traditional Owners and land managers of Kakadu, Garig Gunak Barlu, Judbarra/Gregory, Litchfield and Nitmiluk National Parks, Djelk, Warddeken and Wardaman Indigenous Protected Areas, and Fish River Station and was facilitated by the Northern, Tiwi and Anindilyakwa Land Councils.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143268/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This research was led by scientists at the Northern Territory Government. This article and research benefitted from the involvement of Northern Territory Government Scientists including Brydie Hill, and Alys Stevens from Warddeken Land Management Limited.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Murphy receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graeme Gillespie is employed by the Northern Territory Government’s Department of Environment and Natural Resources. He has received funding from the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Programme through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub and Northern Australia Environmental Resources Hub. The Department also receives funding from a number of other Australian Government programs including the National Landcare Program, Geological and Bioregional Assessment Program and National Partnership Agreements.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jaana Dielenberg receives funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Woinarski receives funding from the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub. </span></em></p>Small mammals in northern Australia have been rapidly vanishing for the last 30 years, and scientists weren’t sure why. Now, a major new study found feral livestock are largely to blame.Alyson Stobo-Wilson, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Charles Darwin UniversityBrett Murphy, Associate Professor / ARC Future Fellow, Charles Darwin UniversityGraeme Gillespie, Honorary Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneJaana Dielenberg, Science Communication Manager, The University of QueenslandJohn Woinarski, Professor (conservation biology), Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1330712020-03-10T06:15:57Z2020-03-10T06:15:57ZThe world’s best fire management system is in northern Australia, and it’s led by Indigenous land managers<p>The tropical savannas of northern Australia are among the most fire-prone regions in the world. On average, they <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/wf07018">account for 70%</a> of the area affected by fire each year in Australia. </p>
<p>But effective fire management over the past 20 years has reduced the annual average area burned – an area larger than Tasmania. The extent of this achievement is staggering, almost incomprehensible in a southern Australia context after the summer’s devastating bushfires. </p>
<hr>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-made-bushfire-maps-from-satellite-data-and-found-a-glaring-gap-in-australias-preparedness-132087">I made bushfire maps from satellite data, and found a glaring gap in Australia's preparedness</a>
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<p>The success in northern Australia is the result of sustained and arduous on-ground work by a range of landowners and managers. Of greatest significance is the fire management from <a href="https://www.countryneedspeople.org.au/indigenous_rangers">Indigenous community-based ranger groups</a>, which has led to one of the most significant greenhouse gas emissions reduction practices in Australia.</p>
<p>As Willie Rioli, a Tiwi Islander and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/IndigenousCarbonIndustryNetwork/">Indigenous Carbon Industry Network</a> steering committee member <a href="https://www.cdu.edu.au/news/australia%E2%80%99s-big-burning-issue-tackled-north">recently said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Fire is a tool and it’s something people should see as part of the Australian landscape. By using fire at the right time of year, in the right places with the right people, we have a good chance to help country and climate. </p>
<p>Importantly, people need to listen to science - the success of our industry has been from a collaboration between our traditional knowledge and modern science and this cooperation has made our work the most innovative and successful in the world.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A tinder-dry season</h2>
<p>The 2019 fire season was especially challenging in the north (as it was in the south), following years of low rainfall across the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-19/gouldian-finch-populations-struggle-in-wa-far-north/11972256ns">Kimberly and Top-End</a>. Northern Australia endured tinder-dry conditions, severe fire weather in the late dry season, and a very late onset of wet-season relief. </p>
<p>Despite these severe conditions, extensive fuel management and fire suppression activities over several years meant northern Australia didn’t see the scale of destruction experienced in the south. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3dBDBfKr018?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A comparison of two years with severe fire weather conditions. Extensive early dry season mitigation burns in 2019 reduced the the total fire-affected areas.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is a huge success for biodiversity conservation under worsening, longer-term fire conditions induced by climate change. Indigenous land managers are even extending their knowledge of savanna burning <a href="https://www.isfmi.org/">to southern Africa</a>. </p>
<h2>Burn early in the dry season</h2>
<p>The broad principles of northern Australia fire management are to burn early in the dry season when fires can be readily managed; and suppress, where possible, the ignition of uncontrolled fires – often from non-human sources such as lightning – in the late dry season. </p>
<p>Traditional Indigenous fire management involves deploying “cool” (low intensity) and patchy burning early in the dry season to reduce grass fuel. This creates firebreaks in the landscape that help stop larger and far more severe fires late in the dry season. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319524/original/file-20200310-61099-flv99i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319524/original/file-20200310-61099-flv99i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319524/original/file-20200310-61099-flv99i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319524/original/file-20200310-61099-flv99i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319524/original/file-20200310-61099-flv99i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319524/original/file-20200310-61099-flv99i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319524/original/file-20200310-61099-flv99i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319524/original/file-20200310-61099-flv99i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Relatively safe ‘cool’ burns can create firebreaks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Essentially, burning early in the dry season accords with tradition, while suppressing fires that ignite late in the dry season is a post-colonial practice.</p>
<p>Savannah burning is different to burn-offs in South East Australia, partly because grass fuel reduction burns are more effective – it’s rare to have high-intensity fires spreading from tree to tree. What’s more, these areas are sparsely populated, with less infrastructure, so there are fewer risks. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-burn-legacy-why-the-science-on-hazard-reduction-is-contested-132083">The burn legacy: why the science on hazard reduction is contested</a>
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</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.firenorth.org.au/">Satellite monitoring</a> over the last 15 years shows the scale of change. We can compare the average area burnt across the tropical savannas over seven years from 2000 (2000–2006) with the last seven years (2013–2019). Since 2013, active fire management has been much more extensive. </p>
<p>The comparison reveals a reduction of late dry season wildfires over an area of 115,000 square kilometres and of all fires by 88,000 square kilometres. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319523/original/file-20200310-61127-53vglu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319523/original/file-20200310-61127-53vglu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319523/original/file-20200310-61127-53vglu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319523/original/file-20200310-61127-53vglu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319523/original/file-20200310-61127-53vglu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319523/original/file-20200310-61127-53vglu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319523/original/file-20200310-61127-53vglu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319523/original/file-20200310-61127-53vglu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How fire has changed in northern Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Combining traditional knowledge with western science</h2>
<p>The primary goals of Indigenous savanna burning projects remain to support cultural reproduction, on-country living and “healthy country” outcomes.</p>
<p>Savanna burning is highly symbiotic with biodiversity conservation and landscape management, which is the core business of rangers. </p>
<p>Ensuring these gains are sustainable requires a significant amount of difficult on-ground work in remote and challenging circumstances. It involves not only Indigenous rangers, but also pastoralists, park rangers and private conservation groups. These emerging networks have helped build new savanna burning knowledge and innovative technologies.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-land-is-burning-and-western-science-does-not-have-all-the-answers-100331">Our land is burning, and Western science does not have all the answers</a>
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<p>While customary knowledge underpins much of this work, the vast spatial extent of today’s savanna burning requires helicopters, remote sensing and satellite mapping. In other words, traditional burning is reconfigured to combine with western scientific knowledge and new tools.</p>
<p>For Indigenous rangers, <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18152">burning from helicopters</a> using incendiaries is augmented by ground-based operations, including on-foot burns that support more nuanced cultural engagement with country. </p>
<p>On-ground burns are particularly important for protecting sacred sites, built infrastructure and areas of high conservation value such as groves of monsoonal forest.</p>
<h2>Who pays for it?</h2>
<p>A more active savanna burning regime over the last seven years has led to <a href="https://theconversation.com/savanna-burning-carbon-pays-for-conservation-in-northern-australia-12185">a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions</a> of more than seven million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/savanna-burning-carbon-pays-for-conservation-in-northern-australia-12185">Savanna burning: carbon pays for conservation in northern Australia</a>
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<hr>
<p>This is around 10% of the total emission reductions accredited by the Australian government through carbon credits units under <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Series/C2011A00101">Carbon Farming Initiative Act</a>. Under the act, one Australian carbon credit unit is earned for each tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent that a project stores or avoids.</p>
<p>By selling these carbon credits units either to the government or on a private commercial market, land managers have created a <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/rj/rj18005">A$20 million a year</a> savanna burning industry. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sFiqU_20s7Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How Indigenous Australians and others across Australia’s north are reducing emissions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What can the rest of Australia learn?</h2>
<p>Savanna fire management is not directly translatable to southern Australia, where the climate is more temperate, the vegetation is different and the landscape is more densely populated. Still, there are lessons to be learnt. </p>
<p>A big reason for the success of fire management in the north savannas is because of the collaboration with scientists and Indigenous land managers, built on respect for the sophistication of traditional knowledge. </p>
<p>This is augmented by broad networks of fire managers across the complex cross-cultural landscape of northern Australia. Climate change will increasingly impact fire management across Australia, but at least in the north there is a growing capacity to face the challenge.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133071/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rohan Fisher receives funding from the former federal environment department through support for the North Australia Fire Information Website, from which satellite-derived fire information was produced.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Altman is a director of a number of not-for-profits including the Karrkad Kanjdji Trust and Original Power. He is the chair of the research committee of The Australia Institute.</span></em></p>The extent of this achievement is staggering, almost incomprehensible in a southern Australia context after the summer’s devastating bushfires.Rohan Fisher, Information Technology for Development Researcher, Charles Darwin UniversityJon Altman, Emeritus professor, School of Regulation and Global Governance, ANU, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1270102019-11-26T18:40:37Z2019-11-26T18:40:37Z‘New Bradfield’: rerouting rivers to recapture a pioneering spirit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303353/original/file-20191125-74567-1lshtdu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C205%2C4031%2C2776&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Waters from the Herbert River, which runs toward one of northern Australia's richest agricultural districts, could be redirected under a Bradfield scheme.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick White</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The “<a href="https://www.deb2020.com.au/newbradfield/">New Bradfield</a>” scheme is more than an attempt to transcend environmental reality. It seeks to revive a pioneering spirit and a nation-building ethos supposedly stifled by the <a href="https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/townsville/townsville-enterprise-to-receive-24m-for-hells-gates-dam-case-after-months-of-bureacratic-delay/news-story/492dba14afd4ce71ffd08f12d38c15a6">bureaucratic inertia</a> of modern Australia.</p>
<p>This is not a new lament. Frustrated by bureaucracy, politicians in North Queensland have long criticised the slow pace of northern development. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/you-cant-boost-australias-north-to-5-million-people-without-a-proper-plan-125063">You can't boost Australia's north to 5 million people without a proper plan</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>In 1950, northern local governments blamed urban lethargy. <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/63184273?searchTerm=concern%20at%20drift%20in%20north%27s%20population&searchLimits=">One prominent mayor</a> complained:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… these young people lack the pioneering spirit of their forebears, preferring leisure and pleasure to hardships and hard work.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These sentiments were inspired by an agrarian nostalgia that extolled toil and toughness. Stoic responses to the challenges of life on the land are part of the <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/9284258">Australian legend</a>.</p>
<p>With drought devastating rural and urban communities and a state election looming in Queensland in 2020, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/leaders-tout-bradfield-scheme-options-in-queensland-election-fight-20191101-p536o2.html">both sides of politics</a> have proposed a “New Bradfield” scheme.</p>
<h2>An idea with 19th-century origins</h2>
<p>Civil engineer John Bradfield devised the original scheme in 1938. His plan would <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/97050378?browse=ndp%3Abrowse%2Ftitle%2FQ%2Ftitle%2F379%2F1939%2F05%2F04%2Fpage%2F10280686%2Farticle%2F97050378">swamp inland Australia</a> by reversing the flow of North Queensland’s rivers. Similar proposals go back to at least 1887, when geographer <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/35590102?q&versionId=44284267+219718360+231090219">E.A. Leonard recommended</a> the Herbert, Tully, Johnstone and Barron rivers be turned around to irrigate Australia’s “<a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/13361128">dead heart</a>”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Blencoe Falls, on a tributary of the Herbert River, North Queensland, during the dry season.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick White</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the “dead heart” became the “<a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/finlayson-hedley-herbert-14881">Red Centre</a>” in the 1930s, <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/6707892?q&versionId=7723963">populist writers</a> revived the dreams of big irrigation schemes. </p>
<p>These schemes have always been contested on both <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-18/fact-file-bradfield-scheme-drought-relief/11216616">environmental and economic grounds</a>. A <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/20252029">compelling history of Bradfield’s</a> proposal reveals many errors and miscalculations. But what the scheme lacked in substance it made up for in grandiose vision.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/the-water-dreamers">Water dreaming</a> has been a powerful theme in Australian history. The desire to transform desert into farmland retains appeal and <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/97099323?searchTerm=bradfield%20AND%20%22Nimmo%22&searchLimits=exactPhrase=Nimmo%7C%7C%7CanyWords%7C%7C%7CnotWords%7C%7C%7CrequestHandler%7C%7C%7CdateFrom=1944-01-01%7C%7C%7CdateTo=1948-01-01%7C%7C%7Cl-advstate=National%7C%7C%7Cl-advstate=New+South+Wales%7C%7C%7Cl-advstate=Queensland%7C%7C%7Cl-advstate=Victoria%7C%7C%7Csortby">discredited</a> schemes like Bradfield keep reappearing.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-keys-to-unlock-northern-australia-have-already-been-cut-69713">The keys to unlock Northern Australia have already been cut</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Contempt for nature and country</h2>
<p>While less ambitious than the original plan, the “New Bradfield” scheme still engineers against the gradient of both history and nature. It would have irreversible consequences for Queensland’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/experts-dismiss-new-drought-proofing-bradfield-scheme/11666006">environment</a>, society and culture.</p>
<p>What’s more, the new scheme manifests much the same mindset as the old. </p>
<p>It’s an attitude that privileges the conquest of nature: in this case literally up-ending geography by turning east-flowing rivers westward. Its celebration of the human struggle against defiant nature reprises the pioneering ethos.</p>
<p>Like many pioneers, “New Bradfield” proposals disregard the interests and land-management practices of Indigenous people. The bushfires ravaging the eastern states show the folly of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-14/traditional-owners-predicted-bushfire-disaster/11700320?sf223598160=1&fbclid=IwAR2UkvGj_wyO4s6tbRqyI5sI6UgEI6SvqkoMwxCFEkKEV6FO7ZGJfGMP3Kc">ignoring traditional ways of caring for country</a> . </p>
<p><a href="http://www.hcourt.gov.au/cases/case_d1-2018">Overlooking native title realities</a> can also cost governments and communities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remote-indigenous-australias-ecological-economies-give-us-something-to-build-on-123917">Remote Indigenous Australia's ecological economies give us something to build on</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Polarising debate neglects more viable projects</h2>
<p>“New Bradfield” is promoted as “<a href="https://www.deb2020.com.au/newbradfield/?utm_source=Digitaliyf&utm_medium=GSearch&utm_campaign=NBradfield&gclid=CjwKCAiA8K7uBRBBEiwACOm4d-0xBRkgojO1Wykl937_rMhWhPhAb2ZsKhcKHOqdM2OuG11V34XdHBoCxBMQAvD_BwE">an asset owned by all Queenslanders for all Queenslanders</a>”. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-darling-river-is-simply-not-supposed-to-dry-out-even-in-drought-109880">environmental destruction</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-are-driving-high-water-prices-in-the-murray-darling-basin-119993">disputes over water sales</a> in the Murray-Darling Basin sound a warning.</p>
<p>The Queensland Farmers Federation has <a href="https://www.qff.org.au/media-releases/qff-welcomes-lnp-commitment-new-bradfield-scheme/">cautiously welcomed</a> the new scheme. Others have dismissed it as a “<a href="https://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/story/6479100/cold-water-poured-on-bradfield-mark-ii/">pipe dream</a>”. </p>
<p>Thus, northern Australia again sits amid a polarised debate about its utility to the nation. Such polarising contests diminish the likelihood of more viable projects being implemented.</p>
<p>Extravagant expectations of “untapped” northern resources have been <a href="https://scholarly.info/book/northern-dreams/">proffered for nearly two centuries</a>. Distant governments have fantasised the Australian tropics as a land of near-limitless potential. Northern communities have many times been disappointed by the results.</p>
<p>Today’s promises to “<a href="https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/opinion/flow-of-jobs-water-vital-for-nq-says-lnp-leader-deb-frecklington/news-story/053bb635b9cb86461ead6eedd39756ca">drought-proof</a>” large areas of Queensland rely on similar images. “Drought-proofing” aims to keep people on the land but often defies economic and social reality.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-drought-proof-australia-and-trying-is-a-fools-errand-124504">We can’t drought-proof Australia, and trying is a fool's errand</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Dam developments have an underwhelming record</h2>
<p>The “New Bradfield” rhetoric echoes the inflated expectations of myriad disappointing northern development plans in the past. The <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9781349905737">Ord River project</a> was touted as an agricultural wonder that would put hundreds of thousands of farmers into the Kimberley. Its success lies forever just over the horizon.</p>
<p>Much closer to the present proposal is the Burdekin Falls Dam. It sits in the lower reaches of the same river earmarked for the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-01/bradfield-scheme-is-moving-water-from-north-to-south-feasible/11662942">Hells Gates Dam that would feed</a> the “New Bradfield” scheme. Damming Hells Gates has been advocated since at least the 1930s and has <a href="https://www.townsvilleenterprise.com.au/news-media/news-centre/advocacy-alert-hells-gates-funding-agreement-signals-boots-on-the-ground/">new supporters</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The proposed site for Hells Gates Dam is on Gugu Badhun country on the Burdekin River.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dr Theresa Petray</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Back in the 1950s, damming the Burdekin was expected to generate hydro-electric power and irrigate vast swathes of farmland. After decades of political squabbling, the dam was completed in 1988. It does not generate hydro power. Although it irrigates some land downstream, the anticipated huge agricultural expansion never happened.</p>
<p>The Burdekin Falls Dam has helped the regional economy and could help to overcome the water shortages of the nearby city of Townsville. But it has not met the inflated expectations widely proffered decades earlier. The benefits that would flow from another dam further upstream are likely to be even more meagre.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/damming-northern-australia-we-need-to-learn-hard-lessons-from-the-south-53885">Damming northern Australia: we need to learn hard lessons from the south</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Grandiose visions of northern development have a habit of <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/8505121?selectedversion=NBD660057">failing</a>. A “New Bradfield” scheme, animated by an old pioneering ethos, is unlikely to be different. </p>
<p>Drought-affected communities would derive more benefit from sober proposals that acknowledge the past, integrate Indigenous knowledge and incorporate agricultural innovation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127010/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick White receives funding from an Australian Government Postgraduate Award.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janine Gertz’s PhD Doctoral research was funded by a JCU Australian Postgraduate Award and a JCU Prestige Indigenous Research Award. Janine provides administrative support to the Gugu Badhun Aboriginal Corporation RNTBC. Gugu Badhun Aboriginal Nation is participating in a Nation-Building research project “Prerequisite conditions for Indigenous nation self-government” which is funded by an ARC Discovery Grant, led by the Jumbunna Institute for Indigenous Education and Research, University of Technology Sydney. Gugu Badhun is also a research partner on a native food project with the ARC Training Centre for Uniquely Australian Foods, University of Queensland. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Russell McGregor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ‘New Bradfield’ scheme seeks to revive a nation-building ethos supposedly stifled by bureaucratic inertia. But there are good reasons the scheme never became a reality.Patrick White, PhD Candidate in History and Politics, James Cook UniversityRussell McGregor, Adjunct Professor of History, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1239172019-11-07T19:02:36Z2019-11-07T19:02:36ZRemote Indigenous Australia’s ecological economies give us something to build on<p>Land titling in Australia has undergone a revolutionary shift over the past four decades. The return of diverse forms of title to Indigenous Australians has produced some semblance of land justice. About <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=45675035-0fd3-4698-b1a6-0e3883f82369&subId=669953">half the continent</a> is now held under some form of Indigenous title. </p>
<p>Forms of title range from inalienable freehold title to non-exclusive (or shared) native title. Much of this estate is in northern Australia, as this recent map shows. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299083/original/file-20191029-183132-1uvwvw6.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Status of Indigenous title across Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">K. Jordon, F. Markham and J. Altman, Linking Indigenous communities with regional development: Australia Overview, report to OECD (2019)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another <a href="https://theconversation.com/remote-indigenous-communities-are-vital-for-our-fragile-ecosystems-38700">map</a> from 2014 shows over 1,000 discrete Indigenous communities and the division between north and south.</p>
<h2>What’s different about these lands?</h2>
<p>These lands and their populations have some unusual features.</p>
<p>First, the lands are extremely remote and relatively undeveloped in a capitalist “extractive” sense. These are <a href="https://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p34501/pdf/book.pdf">the largest relatively intact savannah landscapes</a> in Australia — and possibly the world. </p>
<p>Much of this estate is included in the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/land/nrs">National Reserve System</a> as <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/land/indigenous-protected-areas">Indigenous Protected Areas</a> because of its high environmental and cultural values, according to International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/categories-and-criteria">criteria</a>.</p>
<p>These areas still face threats from <a href="https://theconversation.com/invasive-species-are-australias-number-one-extinction-threat-116809">invasive animal and plant species</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-bringing-a-new-world-of-bushfires-123261">bushfires</a> and <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/future-climate/regional-climate-change-explorer/super-clusters/">increasingly extreme heat</a>. These threats will lead to further species extinctions. </p>
<p>Indigenous Protected Area management plans address these threats to ensure biodiversity and cultural values are at best restored or maintained, at worst not eroded.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/churches-have-legal-rights-in-australia-why-not-sacred-trees-123919">Churches have legal rights in Australia. Why not sacred trees?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Second, parts of these lands in the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/science/supervising-scientist/publications/eriss-notes/wetlands-australias-wet-dry-tropics">wet-dry tropics</a> are valuable as sources of emissions avoidance and carbon storage.</p>
<p>Many groups are paid through offset markets and voluntary agreements to reduce overall emissions. There are <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-the-land-sector/Permanence-obligations">emerging options</a> for payment for long-term carbon storage – between 25 and 100 years.</p>
<p>These lands have <a href="https://solargis.com/maps-and-gis-data/download/australia">some of the world’s highest solar irradiance</a>. Multi-billion-dollar <a href="https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6285081/plans-for-worlds-biggest-solar-farm-at-tennant-creek/">solar</a> and <a href="https://asianrehub.com/">wind/solar/green hydrogen</a> facilities are being developed.</p>
<p>Third, the Indigenous owners and majority inhabitants are among the poorest Australians. <a href="https://www.5050foundation.edu.au/assets/reports/documents/8117041e.pdf">Only 35% of Aboriginal adults</a> in very remote Australia are formally employed. <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/145053/1/CAEPR_Census_Paper_2.pdf">Over 50% of Indigenous people</a> in these areas live below the poverty line.</p>
<p>Such poverty is explained partly by past colonisation and associated social exclusion and neglect, geographic isolation from market capitalism and labour markets, and different priorities.</p>
<p>Having legally proven continuity of customs, traditions and connection to reclaimed ancestral lands, landowners generally look to care for their country. They use its natural resources for domestic non-commercial purposes as allowed by law.</p>
<p>But Indigenous people continually struggle to inhabit these lands. Their dispersed small settlements range from townships to homelands. Government support is minimal and policy intentionally discouraging.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/building-in-ways-that-meet-the-needs-of-australias-remote-regions-106071">Building in ways that meet the needs of Australia’s remote regions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The problem with official development models</h2>
<p>Since federation, many government policy proposals to “develop the north” have sought to replicate the economic growth trajectory of the temperate south. Such plans are based on state-sanctioned, often environmentally damaging, market capitalism.</p>
<p>The latest version is the 2015 <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/our-north-our-future-white-paper-on-developing-northern-australia">Our North, Our Future</a> white paper, released after a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Former_Committees/Northern_Australia/Inquiry_into_the_Development_of_Northern_Australia/Tabled_Reports">parliamentary inquiry</a>. In <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Former_Committees/Northern_Australia/Inquiry_into_the_Development_of_Northern_Australia/Submissions">submission 136</a>, Francis Markham and I asked, “developing whose north for whom and in what way?” We pointed out 48% of the north’s <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/1308.7%7EMar+2009%7EMain+Features%7ENorth+Australia+Unit+Update?OpenDocument">3 million square kilometres</a> was under Indigenous title at that time, and Indigenous ideas about the land are often very different from those of the government and corporate, mainly extractive, interests.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-keys-to-unlock-northern-australia-have-already-been-cut-69713">The keys to unlock Northern Australia have already been cut</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Four years on, a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/NorthernAustraliaAgenda/NorthernAustraliaAgenda/Terms_of_Reference">Senate select inquiry</a> is examining how the Our North, Our Future agenda is progressing. A specific reference to First Nations people has been added. In <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/NorthernAustraliaAgenda/NorthernAustraliaAgenda/Submissions">submission 13</a>, we highlighted four fundamental changes over the past five years.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>the Indigenous land share of northern Australia has <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=45675035-0fd3-4698-b1a6-0e3883f82369&subId=669953">grown to 60%</a></p></li>
<li><p>Indigenous people are living in deeper poverty partly <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/145053/1/CAEPR_Census_Paper_2.pdf">due to punitive changes to income-support arrangements</a> </p></li>
<li><p>growing scientific consensus that global warming will have escalating <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=45675035-0fd3-4698-b1a6-0e3883f82369&subId=669953">negative impacts on northern Australia</a> </p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=45675035-0fd3-4698-b1a6-0e3883f82369&subId=669953">slowing population growth</a> suggests the white paper’s <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/our-north-our-future-white-paper-on-developing-northern-australia">goal of a population of 4–5 million by 2060</a> (from just over 1 million now) lacks realism.</p></li>
</ol>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/you-cant-boost-australias-north-to-5-million-people-without-a-proper-plan-125063">You can't boost Australia's north to 5 million people without a proper plan</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We are at a critical crossroads in policy thinking about northern Australia.</p>
<p>The dominant approach sees it as ripe for capitalist development, extraction and associated economic growth, irrespective of environmental consequences. Corporate pressure to undertake <a href="https://theconversation.com/expanding-gas-mining-threatens-our-climate-water-and-health-113047">risky fracking</a> for oil and gas and to develop <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/our-north-our-future-white-paper-on-developing-northern-australia">industrial-scale agriculture and aquaculture projects</a> epitomises such thinking.</p>
<h2>The zero-emissions alternative</h2>
<p>The holistic focus of ecological economics informs an alternative approach. It’s based on the tenet that everything connects to everything else: the economy is embedded in society and society is embedded in the environment, the natural order.</p>
<p>This line of reasoning resonates with the focus of many Indigenous landowners on the need to nurture kin, ancestral country and living, natural resources.</p>
<p>Ecological economics distinguishes between economic growth that depletes non-renewable resources irrespective of environmental harm, and forms of development that focus on human well-being, cultural and environmental values.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-ecological-economics-and-why-do-we-need-to-talk-about-it-123915">What is ‘ecological economics’ and why do we need to talk about it?</a>
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<hr>
<p>Development in the north might take many transformational forms as we strive for a <a href="https://vimeo.com/337193985">zero-emissions economy</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/337193985" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Economist Ross Garnaut discusses the potential of a zero-emissions economy in Australia.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indigenous-titled and peopled lands are well positioned to drive this in three proven ways:</p>
<ol>
<li>by intensifying projects that reduce emissions and sequester carbon</li>
<li>by increasing efforts to conserve biodiversity by managing and potentially reversing impacts of invasive species</li>
<li>by becoming key players in the renewables sector through massive projects for domestic energy use and export.</li>
</ol>
<p>The same landscapes can be used for sustainable wildlife harvesting for food and diverse forms of cultural production for income. These uses accord with Indigenous tradition and leave minimal environmental footprints.</p>
<p>Policy and practice must be informed by the environmental perspectives of Indigenous landowners, which are highly compatible with the core concepts of ecological economics.</p>
<p>In these ways, the North could emerge as a powerhouse region beyond current imaginaries. The climate crisis makes this transformation essential. </p>
<p>As ecological economies, remote Indigenous lands could deliver sustainable livelihoods to Indigenous people and contribute significantly to a zero-emissions economy of critical benefit to national and global communities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123917/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Altman if a director of a number of not-for-profits including the Karrkad Kanjdji Trust and Original Power. He is the chair of the research committee of The Australia Institute. </span></em></p>Expanding on sustainable practices in remote parts of Australia can deliver great benefits to both local Indigenous owners and national and global communities.Jon Altman, Emeritus professor, School of Regulation and Global Governance, ANU, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1250632019-10-24T19:01:38Z2019-10-24T19:01:38ZYou can’t boost Australia’s north to 5 million people without a proper plan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298039/original/file-20191022-28125-1prd8ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5984%2C3341&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Could Darwin one day be home to more than a million people?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/geoffwhalan/48641064733/">Geoff Whalan/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Any moves to greatly increase the population of northern Australian by 2060 could have a devastating impact on the local environment without long-term careful planning by all tiers of government.</p>
<p>That’s the finding of <a href="https://tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07293682.2019.1620302" title="The consequences of three urbanisation scenarios for northern Australia">research</a> that looked at several scenarios to increase the population of the north to 5 million people.</p>
<p>That’s an extra 3.7 million people, or an almost four-fold increase in the current population of northern Australia.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-why-congestion-charging-is-fairer-than-you-might-think-124894">Three charts on: why congestion charging is fairer than you might think</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But, given the potential impact of climate change on northern Australia, we could see population movement the other way as people in the north head south.</p>
<h2>Northern exposure</h2>
<p>The region of Australia above the Tropic of Capricorn covers an area of 3,500,000km² – about 45% of Australia’s landmass – yet it houses only 5% of its population.</p>
<p>Proponents of development envisage extreme population growth because of the region’s growing geopolitical importance. </p>
<p>Northern Australia has <a href="https://adcforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/NDS14_report_web_sample.pdf" title="NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT Creating the future Australia">already been identified</a> as a “gateway to Asia”.</p>
<p>It’s also <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt24h8n3" title="The Nature of Northern Australia: Its natural values, ecological processes and future prospects">described</a> as the largest intact “savanna remaining on Earth […] with a rich biodiversity of international significance”.</p>
<p>Current federal government planning for northern Australia is in the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/our-north-our-future-white-paper-on-developing-northern-australia">Our North, Our Future</a> white paper, released in 2015.</p>
<p>The report adopts a pro-development stance, seeing the north as a place of economic bounty and opportunity. </p>
<p>While it is mute on issues of settlement patterns, there are statements that allude to the government’s support for significant urbanisation:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We need to lay the foundations for rapid population growth and put the north on a trajectory to reach a population of four to five million by 2060.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The white paper also refers to “the development of major population centres of more than a million people”. Such cities would be around six times the size of the current largest northern city of Townsville, <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/UCL303004?opendocument">population about 180,000</a>.</p>
<h2>Three plans for growth</h2>
<p>Given the existing city planning documents do not countenance the scale of population growth projected in the white paper, we developed three scenarios for how the federal government could distribute this northern Australian population of 5 million by 2060. </p>
<h3>Scenario 1: Growth</h3>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario 1: Growth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Economic and lifestyle factors concentrate the increased population in the four dominant northern cities of Darwin, Cairns, Townsville and Mackay. Each would have populations of more than a million by 2060.</p>
<h3>Scenario 2: Decentralised Growth</h3>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario 2: Decentralised Growth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The populations of Port Hedland, Broome, Kununurra, Darwin, Cairns, Bowen, Townsville and McKay will each increase by 462,000 people.</p>
<h3>Scenario 3: Concentrated Growth</h3>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario 3: Concentrated Growth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Economic opportunities see northern Australia’s growing population concentrated in Darwin, which would grow by 1.5 million people by 2060.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/requiem-or-renewal-this-is-how-a-tropical-city-like-darwin-can-regain-its-cool-102839">Requiem or renewal? This is how a tropical city like Darwin can regain its cool</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This figure is in line with the Australian government’s vision of northern cities with “more than a million people”.</p>
<h2>The fate of the north</h2>
<p>Irrespective of the scenario, our findings show population growth will not be good for the local environment without any overarching long-term planning frameworks to steer urbanisation. </p>
<p>This is particularly the case for scenarios 1 and 3 where the required increase in urban area either outstrips, or is only just commensurate with, the availability of cleared land adjacent to Darwin, Cairns and Townsville. </p>
<p>As such, population growth at the scale proposed by the white paper could result in substantial destruction, degradation and fragmentation of peri-urban ecosystems – where urban meets rural – by urban development and expanding road networks. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario 1: Growth for Darwin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Darwin’s case, in Scenario 1 the additional 925km² of urbanisation required would sprawl south of the city in a corridor to as far as Humpty Doo (1) and down to Acacia Hills (2).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=729&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=729&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=729&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario 1: Growth for Townsville.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Townsville, in Scenario 1 for growth, the additional 925km² of urbanisation would result in sprawling along the coast and around the existing centres of Giru (1) and Woodstock (2), and around Mount Surround (3).</p>
<p>While Townsville has 957km² of cleared land and theoretically could just accommodate this growth, it is likely to cause extensive damage to the local environment through land degradation and fragmentation by urban development. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario 3: Concentrated Growth for Darwin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Darwin, with Scenario 3 and concentrated growth, the urban expansion required for the city is 1,500km². This would dwarf the city’s 296km² of developable land and result in substantial clearing of remnant vegetation.</p>
<h2>Proper planning required</h2>
<p>Clearly then, if the scale of population growth envisaged in the white paper occurs without any comprehensive planning, the result will be harmful for the north. </p>
<p>To avoid this fate we need a bipartisan settlement strategy (most closely resembling Scenario 2) to steer the urbanisation of northern Australia.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-bank-urges-cities-to-invest-in-new-infrastructure-to-adapt-to-climate-change-124488">Global bank urges cities to invest in new infrastructure to adapt to climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Policymakers and planners should develop this strategy based on a comprehensive landscape analysis of northern Australia. If the scale of population growth envisaged in the white paper occurs without such planning, the result will be ruinous for one of the world’s last great wildernesses. </p>
<p>But the federal government should also decide whether a population of 5 million in the north is something we should aspire to at all.</p>
<p>If the worst climate change projections are borne out, we could end up with migration from cities such as Darwin to cities further south, even into the southern states.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125063/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Bolleter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government wants more people to live in Australia’s north. So we looked at three scenarios to increase the population and the results don’t always look good for the north.Julian Bolleter, Deputy Director, Australian Urban Design Research Centre, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/718802017-03-13T19:21:45Z2017-03-13T19:21:45ZExtreme weather likely behind worst recorded mangrove dieback in northern Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160260/original/image-20170310-10926-1uctccl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mangroves have died along a 1,000km stretch of coastline in the Gulf of Carpentaria.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NC Duke</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the worst instances of mangrove forest dieback ever recorded globally struck Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria in the summer of 2015-16. A combination of extreme temperatures, drought and lowered sea levels likely caused this dieback, according to <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/MF/MF16322">our investigation</a> published in the journal Marine and Freshwater Research.</p>
<p>The dieback, which coincided with the Great Barrier Reef’s worst ever <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/04/survey-confirms-worst-ever-coral-bleaching-great-barrier-reef">bleaching event</a>, affected 1,000km of coastline between the Roper River in the Northern Territory and Karumba in Queensland.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rLCUF-Kc5hY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Views of mangrove shorelines impacted by dieback event in late 2015, east of Limmen Bight River, Northern Territory (imagery: NC Duke, June 2016).</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>About 7,400 hectares, or 6%, of the gulf’s mangrove forest had died. Losses were most severe in the NT, where around 5,500ha of mangroves suffered dieback. Some of the gulf’s many catchments, such as the Robinson and McArthur rivers, lost up to 26% of their mangroves. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159908/original/image-20170308-27355-1742ltd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159908/original/image-20170308-27355-1742ltd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159908/original/image-20170308-27355-1742ltd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159908/original/image-20170308-27355-1742ltd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159908/original/image-20170308-27355-1742ltd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159908/original/image-20170308-27355-1742ltd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159908/original/image-20170308-27355-1742ltd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159908/original/image-20170308-27355-1742ltd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Views of seaward mangrove fringes showing foreshore sections of minor (left side) and extreme (right side) damage as observed in June 2016 between Limmen and MacArthur rivers, NT. These might effectively also represent before and after scenarios, but together show how some shoreline sections have been left exposed and vulnerable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NC Duke</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The gulf, a remote but valuable place</h2>
<p>The Gulf of Carpentaria is a continuous sweep of wide tidal wetlands fringed by mangroves, meandering estuaries, creeks and beaches. Its size and naturalness makes it <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/319/5865/948">globally exceptional</a>.</p>
<p>An apron of broad mudflats and seagrass meadows supports thousands of marine turtles and dugongs. A thriving fishing industry worth at least <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/MF16322">A$30 million</a> ultimately depends on mangroves.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159909/original/image-20170308-27341-ozdxtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159909/original/image-20170308-27341-ozdxtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159909/original/image-20170308-27341-ozdxtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159909/original/image-20170308-27341-ozdxtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159909/original/image-20170308-27341-ozdxtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159909/original/image-20170308-27341-ozdxtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159909/original/image-20170308-27341-ozdxtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159909/original/image-20170308-27341-ozdxtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dieback of mangroves around Karumba in Queensland, with surviving saltmarsh, October 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NC Duke</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mangroves and saltmarsh plants are uniquely adapted to extreme and fickle coastal shoreline ecosystems. They normally cope with salt and daily inundation, having evolved specialised physiological and morphological traits, such as salt excretion and unique breathing roots. </p>
<p>But in early 2016, local tour operators and consultants doing bird surveys alerted authorities to mangroves dying en masse along entire shorelines. They reported skeletonised mangroves over several hundred kilometres, with the trees appearing to have died simultaneously. They sent photos and even tracked down satellite images to confirm their concerns. The NT government supported the first investigative surveys in June 2016. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159907/original/image-20170308-27364-1lykfle.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159907/original/image-20170308-27364-1lykfle.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159907/original/image-20170308-27364-1lykfle.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159907/original/image-20170308-27364-1lykfle.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159907/original/image-20170308-27364-1lykfle.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159907/original/image-20170308-27364-1lykfle.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159907/original/image-20170308-27364-1lykfle.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159907/original/image-20170308-27364-1lykfle.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Areas affected by severe mangrove dieback in late 2015 (grey shaded) along southern shorelines of Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria from Northern Territory to Queensland. Aerial surveys (red lines) were undertaken on three occasions during 2016 to cover around 600km of the 1000km impacted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NC Duke</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the end, the emails from citizen scientists nailed the timing: “looks like it started maybe December 2015”; the severity: “I’ve seen dieback before, but not like this”; and the cause: “guessing it may be the consequence of the four-year drought”.</p>
<p>Our <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/MF16322">investigation</a> used satellite imagery dating back to 1972 to confirm that the dieback was an unparalleled event. Further aerial helicopter surveys and mapping during 2016, after the dieback, validated the severity of the event extending across the entire gulf. <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1442-9993.2012.02393.x/abstract">Mangrove dieback</a> has been recorded in Australia in the past but over decades, not months. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159904/original/image-20170308-27327-1yomrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159904/original/image-20170308-27327-1yomrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159904/original/image-20170308-27327-1yomrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159904/original/image-20170308-27327-1yomrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159904/original/image-20170308-27327-1yomrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159904/original/image-20170308-27327-1yomrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159904/original/image-20170308-27327-1yomrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159904/original/image-20170308-27327-1yomrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mangroves losses (red) and surviving mangroves (green) around the shoreline and mouth of the Limmen Bight River, south-western Gulf of Carpentaria, April 2015 to April 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NC Duke, J. Kovacs</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mysterious patterns in the dieback</h2>
<p>We still don’t fully understand what caused the dieback. But we can rule out the usual suspects of chemical or oil spills, or severe storm events. It was also significant that losses occurred simultaneously across a 1,000km front. </p>
<p>There were also a number of tell-tale patterns in the dieback. The worst-impacted locations had more or less complete loss of shoreline-fringing mangroves. This mirrored a general loss of mangroves fringing tidal saltpans and saltmarshes along this semi-arid coast. </p>
<p>Mangroves were unaffected where they kept their feet wet along estuaries and rivers. This, as well as the timing and severity of the event, points to a connection with extreme weather and climate patterns, and particularly the month-long drop of 20cm in local sea levels. </p>
<h2>Extreme weather the likely culprit</h2>
<p>We believe the dieback is best explained by drought, hot water, hot air and the temporary drop in sea level. Each of these was correlated with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-over-but-has-left-its-mark-across-the-world-59823">strong 2015-16 El Niño</a>. Let’s take a look at each in turn. </p>
<p>First, the dieback happened at the end of an unusually long period of severe drought conditions, which prevailed for much of 2015 following four years of below-average rainfall. This caused severe moisture stress in mangroves growing alongside saltmarsh and saltpans. </p>
<p>Second, the dieback coincided with hot sea temperatures that also caused coral bleaching along the <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/04/survey-confirms-worst-ever-coral-bleaching-great-barrier-reef">Great Barrier Reef</a>. While mangroves are known to be relatively heat-tolerant, they have their limits. </p>
<p>The air temperatures recorded at the time of the mangrove dieback, particularly from February to September 2015, were also <a href="http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/2015_bams_eee_low_res.pdf">exceptionally high</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/p__8Pod_gzg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Views of mangrove shorelines impacted by dieback event in late 2015, north of Karumba, Queensland (imagery: NC Duke, Oct 2016).</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Third, the sea level dropped by up to 20cm at the time of the dieback when the mangroves were both heat- and moisture-stressed. <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/JC089iC06p10425/abstract">Sea levels commonly drop</a> in the western Pacific (and rise in the eastern Pacific) during strong El Niño years: and the 2015-2016 El Niño was the third-strongest recorded.</p>
<p>The mangroves appear to have died of thirst. Mangroves may be hardy plants, but when sea levels drop, reducing inundation, coupled with already heat-and-drought-stressed weather conditions, then the plants will die – much like your neglected pot plants. </p>
<p>We don’t yet know what role human-caused climate change played in these particular weather events or <a href="http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2016/02/02/el-nino-and-global-warming-whats-the-connection/">El Niño</a>. But the unprecedented extent of the dieback, the confluence of extreme climate events and the coincidence with the bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef mean the role of climate change will be of critical interest in the global response to mangrove decline.</p>
<h2>What future for mangroves?</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecm.1248/full">future for mangroves</a> around the world is mixed. Thanks to climate change, droughts are expected to become <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n1/full/nclimate1633.html">hotter and more frequent</a>. If the gulf’s mangroves experience further dieback in the future, this will have serious implications for Australia’s northern fisheries including the iconic prawn fishery, mudcrab and fin fish fisheries. All species are closely associated with healthy mangroves. </p>
<p>We don’t know whether the mangroves will recover or not. But there is now a further risk of shoreline erosion and retreat, particularly if the region is struck by a cyclone – and this may have already begun with recent cyclonic weather and flooding in the gulf. The movement of mangrove sediments will lead to massive releases of carbon uniquely buried among their roots. </p>
<p>Mangroves are among the <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n5/full/ngeo1123.html">most carbon-rich forests in the tropics and semi-tropics</a> and much of this carbon could enter the atmosphere. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159910/original/image-20170308-27351-1f0ps04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159910/original/image-20170308-27351-1f0ps04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159910/original/image-20170308-27351-1f0ps04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159910/original/image-20170308-27351-1f0ps04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159910/original/image-20170308-27351-1f0ps04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159910/original/image-20170308-27351-1f0ps04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159910/original/image-20170308-27351-1f0ps04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159910/original/image-20170308-27351-1f0ps04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aerial view of severe mangrove dieback near Karumba in Queensland, October 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NC Duke</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now we urgently need to understand how mangroves died at large and smaller scales (such as river catchments), so we can develop strategies to help them adapt to future change. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Australia’s top specialists and managers will be reviewing the current situation at a dedicated workshop during next week’s <a href="http://www.utas.edu.au/land-food/geography-and-spatial-sciences/amsn-conference-2017">Australian Mangrove and Saltmarsh Network</a> annual conference in Hobart.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71880/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In early 2016 reports appeared that vast swathes of mangroves had died in the Gulf of Carpentaria. It now appears heat and drought were to blame.Penny van Oosterzee, Principal Research Adjunct James Cook University and University Fellow Charles Darwin University, James Cook UniversityNorman Duke, Professor of Mangrove Ecology, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/694112016-12-19T19:07:23Z2016-12-19T19:07:23ZExplainer: what is the Australian monsoon?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150231/original/image-20161215-2500-zngc4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In Darwin the wet season usually arrives around Christmas Day. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Storm image from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Christmas in Darwin often means one thing: rain. The north is famous for its wet season, which runs from November to April, when the vast majority of the region’s rain falls.</p>
<p>The flora, fauna and people of the north have adapted to the Australian monsoon and now depend on the arrival of the rain for their survival. Living as we do on an arid continent, it is natural to eye this seasonal source of water as an important resource for <a href="http://industry.gov.au/ONA/WhitePaper/index.html">agriculture and other economic activity</a>. </p>
<p>But the summer monsoon is also notoriously fickle. Last year’s wet season was <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a017.shtml">the driest since 1992</a>, although there is <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0">some evidence</a> that this year will be better. So what drives this important weather phenomenon, and how might it change in the future?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150233/original/image-20161215-2500-1q2ktxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150233/original/image-20161215-2500-1q2ktxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150233/original/image-20161215-2500-1q2ktxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150233/original/image-20161215-2500-1q2ktxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150233/original/image-20161215-2500-1q2ktxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150233/original/image-20161215-2500-1q2ktxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150233/original/image-20161215-2500-1q2ktxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150233/original/image-20161215-2500-1q2ktxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Northern Australia’s wildlife is adapted to the wild swings between wet and dry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Crocodile image from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is the Australian monsoon?</h2>
<p>The Australian monsoon actually alternates between two seasonal phases linked to wind direction. In the winter phase, easterly trade winds bring dry conditions. In the summer, westerly winds bring sustained rainy conditions. In fact, the word “monsoon” comes from the Arabic word for season.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149348/original/image-20161208-31402-1pasc72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149348/original/image-20161208-31402-1pasc72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149348/original/image-20161208-31402-1pasc72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149348/original/image-20161208-31402-1pasc72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149348/original/image-20161208-31402-1pasc72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149348/original/image-20161208-31402-1pasc72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149348/original/image-20161208-31402-1pasc72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global rainfall daily averages (1979-2008) for the months of January (left) and July (right). The monsoon trough is positioned over northern Australia in the southern summer, and moves northward during the southern winter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the summer approaches, the sun heats the Australian land area faster than the surrounding ocean in much the same way as the pavement next to an outdoor swimming pool is heated faster than the pool water. </p>
<p>This difference in heating also produces a difference in pressure, which is lower over the land than the ocean. As a result, warm, moist air from the tropical ocean is drawn towards the lower pressure over the hot and dry north of Australia. It is this increase in humidity in the month or so prior to the sustained rains (known also as the “build-up”) that makes life so uncomfortable for many, driving some people “troppo”.</p>
<p>With increasing humidity, conditions become progressively better for the development of deep clouds and storms. </p>
<p>Eventually, sustained rain, low pressure (the “monsoon trough”) and deep westerly winds become established over land. This transition can be relatively abrupt, and at Darwin usually occurs around Christmas Day, although there is a great deal of variability from year to year.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149345/original/image-20161208-31364-oj18s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149345/original/image-20161208-31364-oj18s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149345/original/image-20161208-31364-oj18s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149345/original/image-20161208-31364-oj18s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149345/original/image-20161208-31364-oj18s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149345/original/image-20161208-31364-oj18s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149345/original/image-20161208-31364-oj18s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satellite image from December 27 2015, showing a tropical low in the Australian monsoon. This weather system contributed to the first big rainfall burst of the 2015/2016 summer monsoon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Worldview (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why so variable?</h2>
<p>Unsurprisingly, <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-el-nino-and-la-nina-27719">El Niño (and its counterpart, La Niña)</a> is partly responsible for the monsoon’s variability. </p>
<p>In El Niño years, the summer monsoon tends to be drier than average, and last year was no <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=1&map=decile&period=cnws&area=nat">exception</a>. </p>
<p>However, El Niño (or La Niña) usually influences only the early part of the season. Once the summer monsoon becomes established, the relationship with El Niño (or La Niña) becomes weaker.</p>
<p>The tropical oceans just to the north of Australia also play a role in the variability. Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and greater evaporation have contributed to an early onset of summer monsoon <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall-onset/">this year</a> by increasing the moisture early in the season. </p>
<p>Rainfall in the Australian summer monsoon occurs in a series of bursts, each of which may last for a few days or weeks. The relatively dry periods between the bursts are referred to as breaks, which can last for lengths similar to bursts. The total amount of rain that falls in a season depends on the intensity of the bursts, their number and their duration. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149344/original/image-20161208-31405-bq19xk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149344/original/image-20161208-31405-bq19xk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149344/original/image-20161208-31405-bq19xk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149344/original/image-20161208-31405-bq19xk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149344/original/image-20161208-31405-bq19xk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149344/original/image-20161208-31405-bq19xk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149344/original/image-20161208-31405-bq19xk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Daily rainfall averaged over land areas in the north of Australia for the period 1979-2010 (red), and the 2015/16 daily rainfall (blue). Although on average the rainfall over northern Australia is largest between January and February, in any given season the rainfall will occur in sporadic bursts as seen for the 2015/2016 summer monsoon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology (http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The science of bursts</h2>
<p>One ingredient in rainfall bursts is the envelope of deep clouds known as the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/">Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)</a>. This eastward-moving atmospheric wave organises deep clouds in the tropics and is often linked to widespread rainfall as it passes over the north of Australia. </p>
<p>This wave has a period (the length of time between rises and falls) of 30 to 60 days, and is closely <a href="http://poama.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=MJO-phase">monitored</a> by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. </p>
<p><a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0071.1">Recent research</a> has shown that a second important ingredient is the mid-latitude troughs (zones of low pressure) that periodically move towards the equator into the tropics. Such troughs rapidly increase the moisture in the monsoon trough and are associated with two-thirds of all bursts.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/">These influences</a> also work together to produce rainfall bursts in the Australian monsoon.</p>
<h2>What about climate change?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/future-climate/regional-climate-change-explorer/super-clusters/">jury is still out</a> on this one, although there are hints as to what might be ahead. </p>
<p>State-of-the-art climate models furiously disagree on whether there will be more or less rainfall and how much more or less in the north of Australia. Although there are reasons to believe that the monsoon regions may become wetter in a warmer world, monsoons pose a challenge for climate models as they depend very strongly on the relationship between the atmosphere, the land and the ocean. </p>
<p>However, recent advances in understanding the role of the mid-latitudes in producing rainfall bursts may help us to untangle some of the uncertainties in the models. </p>
<p>The continuing research into understanding and predicting the Australian summer monsoon will help in planning for the future in this important region.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69411/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sugata Narsey receives funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Reeder receives funding from Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. </span></em></p>The Australian monsoon delivers most of northern Australia’s rainfall and is a vital feature of life in the region. But why does it occur?Sugata Narsey, PhD Candidate, Monash UniversityMichael Reeder, Professor, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/697132016-12-13T02:47:39Z2016-12-13T02:47:39ZThe keys to unlock Northern Australia have already been cut<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148756/original/image-20161205-25721-g0ita7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mainland Australia's northernmost beach.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">P. White</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ignoring history can lead to a futile repetition of past mistakes. In the new wave of enthusiasm to “unlock” northern Australia, the federal government has overlooked the past and espoused an extraordinarily rosy vision of the future.</p>
<p>Northern development slipped back onto the national agenda in 2013. The <a href="http://www.markcoulton.com.au/Portals/0/2013ElectionPolicies/The%20Coalitions%202030%20Vision%20for%20Developing%20Northern%20Australia%20-%20National%20Party.pdf">Coalition’s 2030 Vision for Northern Australia</a>, a 2014 <a href="http://adcforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/green_paper.pdf">green paper</a> and 2015 <a href="https://northernaustralia.dpmc.gov.au/white-paper">white paper</a> revived old debates.</p>
<p>Each extols the north’s capacity to “become an economic powerhouse”. They market the north as a place of “untapped promise” and a future “trade gateway” for the “booming Asia-Pacific region”.</p>
<p>Hyperbole aside, the most revealing aspect of these declarations is their lack of historical perspective. They fleetingly acknowledge that governments and entrepreneurs have been unlocking the north for more than 150 years. But these nods to history lack the insights needed to inform policy.</p>
<p>The minister for resources and northern Australia, Matt Canavan, <a href="http://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/canavan/speeches/northern-australia-annual-statement">said in October 2016</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Too often people assume that northern development has failed in the past. That is bunkum.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Canavan’s dismissiveness typifies recent government pronouncements. The white paper devoted less than a page to historical reflections. It identified only one vague lesson: “business and governments should stick to what they do best”.</p>
<p>Do the white paper and similar effusions offer a fresh approach, or do they merely recycle old rhetoric and set course for another slump of interest in northern development?</p>
<p>The white paper sets high expectations. It revives the idea that the north can deliver an economic bonanza, along with the old assumption that the north is a bountiful land whose riches have somehow slipped the grasp of the nation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148757/original/image-20161205-25742-mgvi1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148757/original/image-20161205-25742-mgvi1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148757/original/image-20161205-25742-mgvi1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148757/original/image-20161205-25742-mgvi1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148757/original/image-20161205-25742-mgvi1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148757/original/image-20161205-25742-mgvi1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148757/original/image-20161205-25742-mgvi1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eliot Falls is a northern Queensland tourist attraction on Cape York Peninsula.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">P. White, Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Learn from past lessons</h2>
<p>Only about 5% of Australians live in the tropics, but it is not a mysterious or unopened land of limitless, untapped potential.</p>
<p>The area with greatest economic potential ─ northeast Queensland ─ was developed in the 19th century, though not by a centre-driven push for northern development as Canavan insinuates.</p>
<p>In the Northern Territory and the north of Western Australia, the record of development is not so impressive, but not for lack of trying. Enormous expense and effort were invested in trying to fill Australia’s “<a href="http://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9781349905737">empty north</a>”. </p>
<p>Enterprises either crashed, like <a href="http://www.ricetrail.com.au/#historyTop">rice-growing at Humpty Doo</a>, or muddled along with ever-diminishing expectations, like the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-07/ord-river-project-plagued-by-cost-blowouts-delays-report/7823422">Ord River Irrigation Scheme</a>.</p>
<p>Despite the failures, there was no lack of talking up the north. Since colonisation, enthusiasts have trumpeted the north’s potential, using language similar to that of the white paper. Many, like the explorer Michael Terry, lauded northern Australia as “<a href="http://purl.slwa.wa.gov.au/slwa_b1299962_413">a land of promise</a>”. </p>
<p>But many expressed doubts. The geographer <a href="http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/4306346?lookfor=title:(Griffith%20Taylor%20visionary,%20environmentalist,%20explorer)&offset=1&max=31034">Griffith Taylor</a> is the best known, although numerous others agreed that the north was a “<a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/209622?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">poor tropical environment</a>” that lured the unwary into “unsuccessful attempts to develop a delusive land”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148347/original/image-20161202-25685-1miekmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148347/original/image-20161202-25685-1miekmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148347/original/image-20161202-25685-1miekmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148347/original/image-20161202-25685-1miekmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148347/original/image-20161202-25685-1miekmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148347/original/image-20161202-25685-1miekmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148347/original/image-20161202-25685-1miekmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Michael Terry included numerous illustrations like this in his books, but claimed the country he travelled through was ‘a land of promise’ and hotly denied the existence of deserts in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Library of Australia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even official investigators often offered modest appraisals. The 1937 <a href="http://guides.naa.gov.au/records-about-northern-territory/part1/chapter3/3.6.aspx">Payne-Fletcher Report</a> advised Australians to jettison “the delusion that great prospects … lie hidden in the Territory”. Their warning that inflated expectations of the north merely invited disillusionment was <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/37914839?searchTerm=debunking%20the%20territory&searchLimits=">endorsed by major metropolitan newspapers</a>. But northern development would <a href="http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=201200125;res=IELAPA">rise and fall</a> again in the three decades after the second world war. </p>
<p>This period offers lessons that are being overlooked today.</p>
<p>By the 1950s, much of the mystery about the tropics had dissipated. Scientific appraisals were more substantial; first-hand experience was more common; and agricultural, pastoral and mining ventures were testing the limits of the <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/northern/2008/11/22/the-northern-myth-chapter-1/">north’s potential</a>. A CSIRO submission to a 1975 <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/7437812?selectedversion=NBD1639533">inquiry into population</a> argued that the northern areas with best prospects were already being successfully exploited.</p>
<p>The argument for populating the north on grounds of national security lost potency too. Although defence policy in the 1960s and 1970s emphasised the <a href="https://historyitm.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/white.pdf">protection of northern borders</a>, fears of an Asian invasion had <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8500.12021/abstract;jsessionid=1F8C05039E98061F81A70C25418A784F.f01t03">softened</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148758/original/image-20161205-25760-14ggemj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148758/original/image-20161205-25760-14ggemj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148758/original/image-20161205-25760-14ggemj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148758/original/image-20161205-25760-14ggemj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148758/original/image-20161205-25760-14ggemj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148758/original/image-20161205-25760-14ggemj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148758/original/image-20161205-25760-14ggemj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The North Queensland Local Government Association formed the People the North Committee in 1962. Despite attracting political and business interest, the group collapsed in 1969.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Larry Foley, PTNC booklet, c.1962, PTNC Papers, box 1. Eddie Koiki Mabo Library.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By the time Gough Whitlam created the first-ever ministry for northern development in 1972, the north was a declining priority. The Whitlam government’s crowded agenda ensured it would be demoted still further.</p>
<h2>Beware development directed from the centre</h2>
<p>Yet today’s grand governmental pronouncements ignore the efforts and arguments of the past, and pretend that the vision of an untapped north of limitless potential is new. The region’s communities would benefit from a more sober discussion. A centre-driven narrative devalues the social, political and cultural needs of the people who live in the north. </p>
<p>A national benefit test, where development projects are measured for their potential to benefit the whole nation, encourages extreme expectations. Without a middle ground, plans for developing the north may again founder.</p>
<p>Further development and population growth in the north are achievable. Tourism can grow; technology and science can boost industry outputs; governments can improve infrastructure and communications. But a sharper understanding of the history of northern development is vital. </p>
<p>A return to the hyperbole of the past tells us nothing about the north itself, but a lot about the historical vacuum within which policy is too often formulated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69713/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Only about 5% of Australians live in the tropics, but it is not a mysterious or unopened land of limitless untapped potential. The ambition of northern development dates back to the 19th century.Patrick White, PhD Candidate in Society and Culture, James Cook UniversityRussell McGregor, Adjunct Professor of History, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/690382016-12-06T02:49:10Z2016-12-06T02:49:10ZTraditional hunting gets headlines, but is not the big threat to turtles and dugongs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148759/original/image-20161205-25727-1kz5cfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Traditional hunting poses no threat to dugongs. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/38504374@N02/3610811030/in/photolist-6v5mjA-6TYke6-6TYkAM-8RWYYG-npiNEB-gKhE5H-9A4mQ4-6F4HPX-7rje83-e4AdKa-7cBUUX-f5W2ob-jNyjW6-6U3moL-6U3m2U-6U3nqm-7cFNKq-6NM8kN-npiNat-7N2FLi-64rnqY-uHD4x-5irs7w-c6vg75-gmXWz4-6RiBqE-dbF8eG-8H3UZS-G65jz-vSpwaN-5Cm4K-7cFNEb-7x7PP4-7EnDwa-4ZWM5Y-7xbC7U-6wzUc8-6RexyX-dbF6wi-7r6eDL-4Cshex-7CCz69-AEGxj-6GFBAd-6GZgnG-f5W3bU-gmXUN8-6F8SyE-6F4J3v-rxsADk">Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent calls for <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/all-hunting-of-dugongs-turtles-must-end-activist/news-story/86e659ac06b57b98eecd38a87b9795c8">a ban on legal traditional hunting</a> of dugongs and marine turtles imply that hunting is the main threat to these iconic species in Australia. The science indicates otherwise.</p>
<p>While more is being done to address traditional hunting than any of the other impacts, the main threats to their survival often pass unnoticed.</p>
<h2>The real threat to sea turtles</h2>
<p>The draft <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/recovery-plans/comment/draft-recovery-plan-marine-turtles">Recovery Plan for Marine Turtles in Australia</a> evaluated 20 threats to the 22 populations of Australia’s six species of marine turtle. Climate change and marine debris, particularly “<a href="https://theconversation.com/ghostnets-fish-on-marine-rubbish-threatens-northern-australian-turtles-11585">ghost nets</a>” lost or abandoned by fishers, are the greatest risks for most stocks.</p>
<p>Indigenous use is considered to be a high risk for three populations: Gulf of Carpentaria green turtles, Arafura Sea flatback turtles and north-eastern Arnhemland hawksbill turtles. </p>
<p>However, in each of these cases it is the egg harvest, not hunting, <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/recovery-plans/comment/draft-recovery-plan-marine-turtles">that causes concern</a>. International commercial fishing is also a high risk for the hawksbill turtle, whose future remains uncertain. Traditional hunting of marine turtles in Australia is limited to green turtles.</p>
<h2>Is hunting a threat?</h2>
<p>The Torres Strait supports the largest dugong population in the world and a globally significant population of green turtles. <a href="http://monash.edu/research/explore/en/persons/ian-mcniven%28c808f32a-0c49-4375-947a-e9753a23dd1f%29.html">Archaeological research</a> shows that Torres Strait Islanders have been harvesting these species for more than 4,000 years and the dugong harvest has been substantial for several centuries. </p>
<p><a href="https://research.jcu.edu.au/portfolio/helene.marsh/">Our research</a> shows that the Torres Strait dugong population has been stable since we started monitoring 30 years ago and that the harvest of both species is <a href="http://nesptropical.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/NESP-TWQ-3.2-FINAL-REPORT-2.pdf">sustainable</a>. </p>
<p>The situation for dugongs is <a href="https://theconversation.com/dugongs-are-safer-in-torres-strait-than-townsville-13552">very different</a> in the waters of the Great Barrier Reef south of Cooktown. The Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report classifies the <a href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/managing-the-reef/great-barrier-reef-outlook-report">condition of the dugong population in this region as poor</a>. </p>
<p>Modelling indicates that the southern Great Barrier Reef stock of the green turtle, which live and breed south of Cooktown, is <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/recovery-plans/comment/draft-recovery-plan-marine-turtles">increasing</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, both <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0094849">green turtles and dugongs died in record numbers</a> in the year after the extreme floods and cyclones of the summer of 2010-11. Dugongs stopped breeding in the Great Barrier Reef region south of <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0155675">Cooktown</a>.</p>
<p>Thankfully, our current aerial survey indicates that dugong calving has resumed as inshore seagrass habitats recover. There is no evidence that the 2011 losses significantly affected green turtle numbers.</p>
<h2>Working together</h2>
<p>Traditional owners are the first managers of our coastal waters, with cultural practices extending back thousands of years. They have the most to lose from any loss of turtles and dugongs. It is therefore in their best interests, and the government’s best interest, to work in partnership to protect and sustainably manage these species.</p>
<p>Longstanding tensions between traditional owners and tourist operators are behind much of the opposition to traditional hunting in the Cairns area. Some of these tensions have been relieved by the <a href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/our-partners/traditional-owners/traditional-use-of-marine-resources-agreements">Gunggandji Traditional Use of Marine Resources Agreement</a> signed in June 2016.</p>
<p>Under this agreement, the traditional owners decided to cease hunting turtles and dugongs in the waters surrounding Green Island, Michaelmas Cay and Fitzroy Island.</p>
<p>The Gunggandji agreement is the seventh to be signed between the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and traditional owners. In addition, there are two Indigenous land use agreements that address hunting issues in the Great Barrier Reef. </p>
<p>In the Torres Strait, dugong and turtle hunting is managed through 14 (soon to be 15) management plans. There are similar agreements with traditional owners and management agencies in other regions in northern Australia.</p>
<p>Indigenous rangers are crucial to implementing all these agreements in collaboration with management agencies and research institutions. Rangers deliver the practical, on-the-ground arrangements to conserve these species in their <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/resource/sea-country-indigenous-perspective">Sea Country</a>. </p>
<p>The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority has implemented an Indigenous Compliance Program that authorises trained Indigenous rangers to respond to suspicious and illegal activities that they encounter as part of their work.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147533/original/image-20161125-15333-38x6wo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147533/original/image-20161125-15333-38x6wo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147533/original/image-20161125-15333-38x6wo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147533/original/image-20161125-15333-38x6wo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147533/original/image-20161125-15333-38x6wo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147533/original/image-20161125-15333-38x6wo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147533/original/image-20161125-15333-38x6wo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indigenous rangers and community members from Badu Island in Torres Strait help JCU scientists fit a dugong with a satellite tracking device.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Takahiro Shimada/James Cook University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indigenous rangers also remove marine debris from remote beaches. The community-based organisation <a href="http://www.ghostnets.com.au/">GhostNets Australia</a> has worked with 31 coastal Indigenous communities to protect over 3,000km of northern Australia’s saltwater country from ghost nets. These community projects have been instrumental in rescuing turtles, clearing ghost nets off beaches and identifying key areas to aid management agencies to better understand the impact. </p>
<p>Traditional owners from the Torres Strait and the northern Great Barrier Reef also play a valuable role in intervention works at Raine Island, one of the world’s most significant green turtle rookeries. This includes rescuing stranded turtles, using fences to stop turtles from falling over cliffs, and altering beach profiles. </p>
<h2>What about welfare?</h2>
<p>Traditional hunting raises animal welfare issues. The turtle and dugong management plans developed by the Torres Strait communities explicitly address animal welfare. The Torres Strait Regional Authority has been working with a marine mammal veterinarian and traditional owners to develop additional methods of killing turtles humanely.</p>
<p>Indigenous hunters who breach state and territory animal welfare laws can be prosecuted. But more widespread animal welfare problems, not associated with hunting, are largely hidden and ignored. The <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/recovery-plans/comment/draft-recovery-plan-marine-turtles">Queensland Strand Net Program reported</a> that 879 turtles died of their wounds from vessel strike between 2000 and 2011.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147534/original/image-20161125-15333-y8yi2d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147534/original/image-20161125-15333-y8yi2d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147534/original/image-20161125-15333-y8yi2d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147534/original/image-20161125-15333-y8yi2d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147534/original/image-20161125-15333-y8yi2d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147534/original/image-20161125-15333-y8yi2d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147534/original/image-20161125-15333-y8yi2d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An immature female loggerhead turtle severely injured by a boat strike near Gladstone. This turtle was determined to be unrecoverable and was euthanased by a local veterinarian in May 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Takahiro Shimada/James Cook University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other serious animal welfare issues are associated with animals drowning in nets and being caught in and ingesting marine debris. In addition, the potential impact of emerging threats like underwater noise pollution and water quality remain as substantial knowledge gaps. These matters tend not to make the headlines.</p>
<p>Australian waters are home to some of the world’s largest populations of marine turtles and dugongs. A comprehensive and balanced approach to their conservation and management is required to enable our grandchildren and their children to enjoy these amazing animals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helene Marsh FAA, FTSE, Distinguished Professor of Environmental Science at James Cook University, is a conservation biologist who has been studying dugongs for 40 years. She has co-authored two books and some 200 professional articles. Helene currently receives funding from the federal government via the Australian Research Council, the Department of Environment and Energy, the National Environmental Science Program and the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. She provides professional advice to the Torres Strait Regional Authority, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. Helene chairs the Threatened Species Scientific Committee, is a member of the Reef 2050 Plan Independent Expert Panel and Co–chair of the IUCN Sirenia Specialist Group.
<a href="https://research.jcu.edu.au/portfolio/helene.marsh/">https://research.jcu.edu.au/portfolio/helene.marsh/</a>
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Haman is an Associate Professor in the College of Science and Engineering at James Cook University. He currently receives funding from the federal government via the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program and from the Gladstone Port Authority. Mark provides professional advice to the Torres Strait Regional Authority, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, the Department of Environment and Energy and the Queensland Government. Mark is a Co-vice Chair of the IUCN Marine Turtle Specialist Group and a member of the Science Advisory Committee for the IOSEA MoU for Marine Turtles and their Habitats.</span></em></p>The real threats to dugongs and turtles are not being addressed.Helene Marsh, Dean, Graduate Research, James Cook UniversityMark Hamann, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Science (marine focus), James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/672412016-10-20T19:17:39Z2016-10-20T19:17:39ZYes, you heard right: more cane toads really can help us fight cane toads<p>Eighty years ago, an agricultural scientist named <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/mungomery-reginald-william-reg-11197">Reginald Mungomery</a> brought cane toads to Australia, bred them, and released their offspring in sugar cane plantations near Cairns. Little did he know that he was setting in train one of the greatest ecological disasters to befall Australian wildlife. His decision has been universally condemned since. </p>
<p>But now, almost a century later, I am proposing that we can fix Mungomery’s historic blunder by doing almost exactly what he did. Ironically, we can buffer the devastating impact of the cane toad invasion by releasing juvenile toads at the invasion front.</p>
<p>This idea might sound ludicrous. The idea of releasing even more cane toads sounds like the height of academic folly. But it works, and my colleagues and I have even managed to convince initially sceptical management authorities and private landowners to adopt the method.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8MWia6qD_vM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Teaching reptiles to avoid cane toads. Animation courtesy of the University of Sydney.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our key discovery was that populations of most species of native predators aren’t affected by the toad invasion. A few individuals are fatally poisoned when they eat a toxic toad, but most predators aren’t killed by such a meal. If the toad it eats is fairly small (and thus not too poisonous), the predator becomes ill, and learns not to eat toads in future. After that learning experience, the predator can coexist indefinitely with cane toads – it doesn’t try to eat them, so it’s not at risk.</p>
<p>So why doesn’t this same kind of learning save the larger predators – such as quolls, goannas, bluetongue skinks and snakes – that die in droves as soon as cane toads arrive in an area? Our <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1111/1365-2435.12044/asset/fec12044.pdf;jsessionid=857B055045C88E7475F6E02CB94FBA79.f03t04?v=1&t=iuhz3nnb&s=c4858c360aef4b0e3a5c4203218a237e76f50693">surveys</a> show up to 95% mortality in these species. </p>
<p>The reason is that these large predators attack large toads, and these toads contain more than enough poison to kill even a massive goanna within minutes.</p>
<p>Sadly, the apex predators never get an opportunity to encounter the smaller toads that could have offered them a lifeline by teaching them to steer well clear.</p>
<h2>On the frontline</h2>
<p>The invasion vanguard is dominated by <a href="https://theconversation.com/cane-and-able-how-superfit-toads-got-the-hop-on-evolution-512">large adult toads</a>, of a size that kills rather than educates any predator who eats it. Smaller toads (and reproductive females, heavy with eggs) aren’t at the frontline because they can’t keep up with the fastest invaders. As a result, cane toads don’t usually breed until a year or two after the first wave arrives – and by the time the area contains small as well as large toads, the predators have already been killed.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142475/original/image-20161020-8872-1oz24h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142475/original/image-20161020-8872-1oz24h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142475/original/image-20161020-8872-1oz24h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1065&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142475/original/image-20161020-8872-1oz24h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1065&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142475/original/image-20161020-8872-1oz24h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1065&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142475/original/image-20161020-8872-1oz24h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1338&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142475/original/image-20161020-8872-1oz24h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142475/original/image-20161020-8872-1oz24h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1338&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Size matters when it comes to cane toads.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So native predators face a stark equation. If the first cane toad you meet is a large one, you die. If the first cane toad you meet is a small one, you learn not to eat toads, and you survive.</p>
<p>This suggests a straightforward way to buffer the ecological impact of the cane toad invasion: ensure that the predator’s first meeting is with a small toad rather than a large one. There’s a very easy way to do this: we can release small toads at the invasion front, or induce aversion by other methods (such as feeding native animals <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/oct/19/cane-toad-sausages-help-biologist-win-top-science-prize">toad-flavoured sausages</a>).</p>
<h2>Getting results</h2>
<p>We have <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/acv.12004/abstract">trialled this method</a>, and <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01802.x/abstract">it works</a>. Three of the most vulnerable species – Northern Quolls, Bluetongue Skinks, and Yellow-spotted Goannas – all survive toad invasion if they are trained beforehand, but die if they are not. </p>
<p>For example, my research colleague Georgia Ward-Fear captured goannas on a Kimberley floodplain, radio-tracked them, and dangled small cane toads in front of some of the lizards. Many of them seized on the toad, became nauseous, and avoided toads afterwards. Of the goannas that Georgia trained in this way, half were still alive at the conclusion of her <a href="http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/roybiolett/12/1/20150863.full.pdf">study</a> 18 months later – whereas all of the untrained lizards died long before then.</p>
<p>But isn’t this just a stopgap solution, delaying the wave of predator deaths for just a single generation? Won’t the offspring of those trained predators need to be trained as well, and so on forever? No, they won’t. </p>
<p>Within a year or two of the toads’ arrival in an area, they begin to breed – and so the offspring of our trained predators grow up in a world with small as well as large cane toads. The young predators will encounter small toads, eat them, and learn to give them a wide berth. All we need is a single generation of education to provide a long-lasting benefit.</p>
<p>We are now working with Western Australia’s Department of Parks and Wildlife to fine-tune our methods, and then implement them on a landscape scale. We can’t stop the toad invasion from proceeding through the Kimberley, but we can substantially blunt the invaders’ impact. Ironically, the way we are doing it is almost exactly the same as the act that caused the problem in the first place, when Reginald Mungomery released those first young cane toads in cane fields on the other side of the continent.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Rick Shine is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/teaching-reptiles-to-avoid-cane-toads-earns-top-honour-in-pms-science-prizes-67306">recipient of the 2016 Prime Minister’s Prize for Science</a> for his work on the cane toad problem.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Shine receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the University of Sydney.</span></em></p>It sounds weird, but releasing small cane toads ahead of the main invasion front can help predators learn to avoid the biggest, most toxic ones. Here’s exactly how it works.Rick Shine, Professor in Evolutionary Biology, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/598972016-08-26T03:58:19Z2016-08-26T03:58:19ZEcoCheck: Australia’s vast, majestic northern savannas need more care<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135570/original/image-20160826-6595-1gilcpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Storm season in the Australian tropical savanna.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Euan Ritchie</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Our <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/ecocheck-25759">EcoCheck</a> series takes the pulse of some of Australia’s most important ecosystems to find out if they’re in good health or on the wane.</em></p>
<p>Australia’s Top End, Kimberley and Cape York Peninsula evoke images of vast, awe-inspiring and ancient landscapes. Whether on the hunt for a prized barramundi, admiring some of the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-02/indigenous-rock-art-could-be-among-oldest-in-world/6906476">oldest rock art in the world</a>, or pursuing a spectacular palm cockatoo along a pristine river, hundreds of thousands of people flock to this region each year. But how are our vast northern landscapes faring environmentally, and what challenges are on the horizon? </p>
<p>Above 17° south, bounded by a rough line from Cairns, Queensland, to Derby, Western Australia, are the high-rainfall (more than 1,000mm a year) tropical savannas. These are the largest and most intact ecosystem of their kind on Earth. With the exception of some “smaller” pockets of rainforest (such as Queensland’s <a href="http://www.nprsr.qld.gov.au/parks/kutini-payamu/">Kutini-Payamu (Iron Range) National Park</a>), the vegetation of the region is dominated by mixed <em>Eucalyptus</em> forest and woodland with a grassy understorey.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134993/original/image-20160822-18725-2w5f3p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134993/original/image-20160822-18725-2w5f3p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134993/original/image-20160822-18725-2w5f3p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134993/original/image-20160822-18725-2w5f3p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134993/original/image-20160822-18725-2w5f3p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134993/original/image-20160822-18725-2w5f3p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134993/original/image-20160822-18725-2w5f3p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134993/original/image-20160822-18725-2w5f3p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Within the fire-prone Great Northern Savannas exist fire-sensitive communities such as these <em>Allosyncapria ternata</em> rainforests along the edge of the Arnhem Plateau in Kakadu National Park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brett Murphy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is a distinct monsoonal pattern of rainfall. Almost all of it falls during the wet season (December-March), followed by an extended dry (April-November). Wet-season rains drive abundant grass growth, which subsequently dries and fuels regular bushfires – making these landscapes among the most fire-prone on Earth. The dominant land tenures of the region are Indigenous, cattle grazing and conservation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134706/original/image-20160819-12300-1qr0oay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134706/original/image-20160819-12300-1qr0oay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134706/original/image-20160819-12300-1qr0oay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134706/original/image-20160819-12300-1qr0oay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134706/original/image-20160819-12300-1qr0oay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134706/original/image-20160819-12300-1qr0oay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134706/original/image-20160819-12300-1qr0oay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134706/original/image-20160819-12300-1qr0oay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cattle grazing is widespread in the Great Northern Savannas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Ziembicki</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These savannas are home to <a href="http://press.anu.edu.au/publications/nature-northern-australia">a vast array of plant and animal species</a>. The Kimberley supports at least 2,000 native plant species, while the Cape York Peninsula has some 3,000. More than 400 bird and 100 mammal species call the region home, along with invertebrates such as moths, butterflies, ants and termites, and spiders. Many of the latter are still undescribed and poorly studied. </p>
<p>Many species, such as the <a href="http://australianmuseum.net.au/image/scaly-tailed-possum">scaly-tailed possum</a>, are endemic to the region, meaning they are found nowhere else.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134577/original/image-20160818-12274-shir7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134577/original/image-20160818-12274-shir7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134577/original/image-20160818-12274-shir7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134577/original/image-20160818-12274-shir7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134577/original/image-20160818-12274-shir7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134577/original/image-20160818-12274-shir7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134577/original/image-20160818-12274-shir7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134577/original/image-20160818-12274-shir7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A large male antilopine wallaroo, endemic to tropical Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Euan Ritchie</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The general lack of extensive habitat loss and modification, as compared to the broad-scale land clearing in southern Australia since European arrival, can give a false impression that the tropical savannas and their species are in good health. But research suggests otherwise, and considerable threats exist. </p>
<p>Fire-promoting weeds such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/field-of-nightmares-gamba-grass-in-the-top-end-12178">gamba grass</a>, widely sown until very recently as fodder for cattle, are transforming habitats from diverse woodlands to burnt-out, low-diversity grasslands. Indeed, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/huge-fires-are-burning-northern-australia-every-year-its-time-to-get-them-under-control-49431">fires</a> themselves, which are considered too frequent and too late in the dry season at some locations, are now thought to be a primary driver of species loss. </p>
<p>Notable examples of wildlife in trouble include <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper/MU12109.htm">declines of many seed-eating birds</a>, such as the spectacular Gouldian finch, and the catastrophic <a href="https://euanritchie.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/the-disappearing-mammal-fauna-of-northern-australia-context-cause-and-response.pdf">decline of native mammal species</a>, most prominently in Australia’s largest national park, Kakadu. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134707/original/image-20160819-12284-zg0r75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134707/original/image-20160819-12284-zg0r75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134707/original/image-20160819-12284-zg0r75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134707/original/image-20160819-12284-zg0r75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134707/original/image-20160819-12284-zg0r75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134707/original/image-20160819-12284-zg0r75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134707/original/image-20160819-12284-zg0r75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134707/original/image-20160819-12284-zg0r75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bauxite mining threatens the habitat of vulnerable Cape York palm cockatoos.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Ziembicki</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Added pressures include <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/10/australias-largest-cockatoo-threatened-by-aluminum-mining">bauxite mining</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-06/machinery-arrives-for-tiwi-woodchip-harvest/6284334">forestry</a> and cattle grazing. The latter activity exerts strong pressures on the characteristically leached, <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WR03008">nutrient-poor, tropical soils</a>. Most recently, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-05/qld-government-under-pressure-stop-bushland-clearing-cape-york/6445594">changes to Queensland’s land-clearing laws</a> have led to virgin savanna woodland being cleared. </p>
<p>It is likely <a href="https://euanritchie.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/stemming-the-tide-progress-towards-resolving-the-causes-of-decline-and-implementing-management-responses-for-the-disappearing-mammal-fauna-of-northern-australia.pdf">some threats may also combine</a> to make matters worse for certain species. For instance, frequent fires, intensive cattle grazing and the overabundance of introduced species such as feral donkeys and horses all combine to remove vegetation cover. This, together with the presence of feral cats, makes some native animals <a href="https://theconversation.com/killing-cats-rats-and-foxes-is-no-silver-bullet-for-saving-wildlife-42754">more vulnerable to predation</a>. </p>
<h2>New threats</h2>
<p>This globally significant ecosystem, already under threat, is facing new challenges too. Proposals to use the region as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-only-way-is-up-the-northern-australian-food-bowl-fantasy-12573">food bowl for Asia</a> are associated with calls for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rush-to-dam-northern-australia-comes-at-the-expense-of-sustainability-61566">damming of waterways</a> and land clearing for agriculture. </p>
<p>This is against a backdrop of <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-the-elephant-in-the-room-for-developing-northern-australia-43528">climate change</a>, which among other effects may bring less predictable wet seasons, more frequent and intense storms (cyclones) and fires, and hotter, longer dry seasons. Such changes are not only <a href="http://apscience.org.au/projects/APSF_01_2/Ritchie%20and%20Boltiho%202008.pdf">likely to harm some species</a>, but could also make those much-touted agricultural goals far more difficult to achieve.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134708/original/image-20160819-12284-16v7ll6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134708/original/image-20160819-12284-16v7ll6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134708/original/image-20160819-12284-16v7ll6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134708/original/image-20160819-12284-16v7ll6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134708/original/image-20160819-12284-16v7ll6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134708/original/image-20160819-12284-16v7ll6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134708/original/image-20160819-12284-16v7ll6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134708/original/image-20160819-12284-16v7ll6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Great opportunities exist in northern Australia, but we need to avoid the mistakes of the past.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Ziembicki</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/cape-yorks-ecosystems-are-worth-billions-of-dollars-time-to-share-the-wealth-56994">Great opportunities do exist</a> in northern Australia, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-white-paper-a-game-changer-for-northern-australia-43458">carbon farming and expanded tourism enterprises</a>. In some cases this might require difficult transitions, as already seen in parts of Cape York Peninsula, where often economically unviable cattle stations have become joint Indigenous and conservation-managed lands. </p>
<p>A key priority for the Great Northern Savannas should be to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JW7tZ4JPqEI">maintain people on country</a>. It’s often thought that the solution to reducing environmental impacts is removing people from landscapes, but as people disappear so too does their stewardship and ability to manage and care for the land. </p>
<p>Importantly, and finally, we must also learn the <a href="https://theconversation.com/damming-northern-australia-we-need-to-learn-hard-lessons-from-the-south-53885">historical lessons</a> from southern Australia if we are to <a href="https://theconversation.com/northern-development-plan-shows-australias-fraught-vision-of-our-tropics-44235">avoid making similar mistakes</a> all over again, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cape-yorks-wildlife-ignored-in-the-rush-to-develop-the-north-21998">jeopardising</a> the unique and precious values of the north.</p>
<p><em>Are you a researcher who studies an iconic Australian ecosystem and would like to give it an EcoCheck? <a href="mailto:michael.hopkin@theconversation.edu.au">Get in touch</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Euan Ritchie receives funding from Pozible, the Australia and Pacific Science Foundation, and the Australian Research Council. Euan Ritchie is affiliated with the Ecological Society of Australia and the Australian Mammal Society.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Murphy receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Environmental Science Programme and the Hermon Slade Foundation.</span></em></p>Australia’s Great Northern Savannas are the largest and most intact ecosystem of their kind on Earth. But they still face pressure from grazing, mining and agricultural expansion.Euan Ritchie, Senior Lecturer in Ecology, Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin UniversityBrett Murphy, Research Fellow, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/609292016-08-01T20:12:02Z2016-08-01T20:12:02ZWater in northern Australia: a history of Aboriginal exclusion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132134/original/image-20160727-5666-zqmokq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Ord River was targeted for agricultural expansion in the 20th century.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3APump_station.jpg">isthatdaves/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In May, the Northern Territory government <a href="http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-11/major-water-licence-granted-jindare-station-northern-territory/7405020">granted a major water licence</a> for a cattle station near Pine Creek, west of Kakadu National Park, to use almost 14 billion litres of water a year to irrigate crops. </p>
<p>In response, the <a href="http://www.nlc.org.au/">Northern Land Council</a>, which represents Aboriginal landholders, called for a moratorium on all further water allocations in the Territory, claiming the government had not fully consulted the community about the licence.</p>
<p>As we <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2784598">document in a new paper</a>, this kind of debate has been happening ever since the colonisation of northern Australia, often on the premise that the north’s water resources are “wasted” without more economic development and subsequent increases in settler populations. </p>
<p>Since the early 20th century, huge amounts of public money have been invested in large-scale water infrastructure projects in northern Australia, such as the <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/assessment-agricultural-expansion/ord-river-development-and-irrigated-agriculture">Ord River Scheme</a>.</p>
<p>But the viability of this program has been widely critiqued on economic grounds since the mid-1950s. Prominent agricultural economist <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/people/614255?c=people">Bruce Davidson</a> coined the phrase “the Northern Myth” to describe the widely held, but misplaced, belief in the north’s capacity to accommodate vastly expanded agriculture and irrigation because of its abundant water and land.</p>
<p>These developments also largely occurred without consulting Aboriginal people. Water was allocated to other users without taking account of traditional owners’ longstanding cultural and economic practices with regard to land and water, stretching back thousands of years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132124/original/image-20160727-5673-11ijlhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132124/original/image-20160727-5673-11ijlhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132124/original/image-20160727-5673-11ijlhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132124/original/image-20160727-5673-11ijlhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132124/original/image-20160727-5673-11ijlhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132124/original/image-20160727-5673-11ijlhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132124/original/image-20160727-5673-11ijlhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132124/original/image-20160727-5673-11ijlhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indigenous land holdings in northern Australia. Red: Indigenous estates; beige: determined areas; blue: areas subject to claim.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Native Title Tribunal</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A colonial history of exclusion</h2>
<p>After Britain acquired sovereignty of Australia, water use was regulated according to English <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riparian_water_rights">riparian rights</a>. Under this law, legal rights to use water, for example for farming, were given to whoever owned the land where rivers flowed. The link between water use and landholding remained in place, in one form or another, until the late 20th century. </p>
<p>This meant that Indigenous Australians, whose traditional ownership of land (native title) was only <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/1992/23.html">recognised by the Australian High Court in 1992</a>, were largely denied legal rights to water.</p>
<p>Around the same time that native title was recognised, reforms (known as the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/water/australian-government-water-leadership/nwi">National Water Initiative</a>) were being pursued to increase the environmental sustainability of the Murray Darling Basin. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, however, these reforms largely failed to make substantive change in Indigenous water rights or to engage Indigenous people effectively. Today, Indigenous Australians have land rights and/or native title rights and interests over some <a href="http://www.federationpress.com.au/bookstore/book.asp?isbn=9781862879980">30% of the Australian continent</a>, but own only <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?list=BRO&pid=csiro:EP117999&sb=RECENT&n=15&rpp=25&page=65&tr=189884&dr=all">0.01% of water entitlements</a>.</p>
<h2>Problems continuing</h2>
<p>In June last year the Commonwealth government released the latest version of its plans, the <a href="http://industry.gov.au/ONA/WhitePaper/index.html">White Paper on Developing Northern Australia</a>, which calls for yet more significant expansion of irrigation. <a href="https://theconversation.com/damming-northern-australia-we-need-to-learn-hard-lessons-from-the-south-53885">Strong concerns</a> have been expressed about the plan’s failure to incorporate environmental water reserves.</p>
<p>Aboriginal rights and interests still do not seem to be adequately catered for. In a <a href="http://www.nlc.org.au/media-releases/article/keynote-speech-at-garma-festival">speech at the Garma Festival</a>, Northern Land Council chief executive Joe Morrison claimed Aboriginal people had again been largely absent from the process, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Aboriginal people have an essential stake in the future of northern Australia … Aboriginal people must be front and centre in planning processes for the north. This is a fundamental gap in the national discourse about northern development … I’m not one to despair, but I do wonder when the day will come that we have a seat at the planning table.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Aboriginal people are a significant demographic group in northern Australia, with extensive landholdings. In the Northern Territory, for example, Aboriginal people represent <a href="http://www.nlc.org.au">more than 25% of the population and own more than 50% of the land</a>. Any major reform proposal that does not adequately include Aboriginal people risks its own legitimacy.</p>
<p>To give Aboriginal people fair representation in northern water development, they must be accorded a fair share of the water. At the turn of the century, the Northern Territory government developed <a href="http://www.nwc.gov.au/publications/topic/water-planning/indigenous-involvement-in-water-planning/northern-territory">promising proposals</a> to include “strategic indigenous reserves” in northern water resource plans. However, the policy was discontinued after a change of government in 2013. </p>
<p>Experience recovering environmental water in the Murray-Darling Basin has taught us that it is much easier to set aside a share of water while resources are still plentiful than embark on a process of buyback.</p>
<p>By and large, Aboriginal people recognise the case for economic development, not least because of the employment opportunities it creates for their own communities. But they also know the importance of protecting country, particularly sacred sites. </p>
<p>This is not to say that Indigenous water rights must be purely for cultural purposes. On the contrary, Indigenous people deserve commercial water rights too, especially given that they have been sidelined from agricultural expansion for so long. </p>
<p>Righting that historical wrong will mean giving Aboriginal people the same water rights that have been given to non-Indigenous users ever since colonisation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liz Macpherson has received funding from the University of Melbourne (including the Human Rights Scholarship) and International Bar Association Section on Energy, Environment, Natural Resources and Infrastructure Law. All views expressed in this article, alongside those of her coauthors, are her own.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee Godden was the Australian Law Reform Commissioner in charge of the Inquiry into the Native Title Act 1993 between 2013 and 2015. She was also recently a Chief Investigator on the Agreements, Treaties and Negotiated Settlements (ATNS) Project, which was partnered by the Australian Research Council, the Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies, the Australian National University, Griffith University and the University of Melbourne. It received funding from the Commonwealth Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, Rio Tinto, Santos and Woodside.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lily O'Neill was previously a PhD student with the Agreements, Treaties and Negotiated Settlements (ATNS) Project. The ATNS Project is a project partnered by the Australian Research Council, the Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies, the Australian National University, Griffith University and the University of Melbourne. It receives funding from the Commonwealth Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, Rio Tinto, Santos and Woodside.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin O'Donnell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ever since British settlement, water rights in Australia’s north have favoured landowners over traditional owners, effectively locking Aboriginal people out of agricultural development.Elizabeth Macpherson, PhD candidate, Melbourne Law School, The University of MelbourneErin O'Donnell, Senior Fellow, Centre for Resources, Energy and Environment Law, The University of MelbourneLee Godden, Professor, Melbourne Law School, The University of MelbourneLily O'Neill, Fellow and PhD candidate with the Centre for Resources, Energy and Environmental Law, Melbourne Law School, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/614362016-07-11T04:35:52Z2016-07-11T04:35:52ZIt’s a fallacy that all Australians have access to clean water, sanitation and hygiene<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128415/original/image-20160628-28358-1x65xi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C3%2C679%2C373&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Clean water can help to break the link between poor hygiene and eye diseases such as trachoma.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://caama.com.au/news/2016/the-fight-against-trachoma-1976-2016-professor-hugh-taylor">Central Australian Aboriginal Media Association (CAAMA)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nations are <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/hlpf">gathering in New York</a> this week to discuss the <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgs">UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)</a>, which aim to improve health, wealth and well-being for countries both rich and poor.</p>
<p>As a developed nation, it might be assumed that Australia will easily meet these new goals at home – including <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg6">goal number 6</a>, to ensure “availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all”. But the unpalatable truth is that many Australians still lack access to clean water and effective sanitation. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://databank.worldbank.org/data/">World Bank’s Development Indicators</a> list Australia as having 100% access to clean water and effective sanitation. But a <a href="http://www.gci.uq.edu.au/un-sustainable-development-goals-water-sanitation-and-hygiene">discussion paper we released last week with our colleagues</a> outlines how some remote Aboriginal communities struggle to meet <a href="https://www.nhmrc.gov.au/guidelines-publications/eh52">Australian water standards</a>. </p>
<h2>Making water safe</h2>
<p>High standards of health and well-being are unattainable without safe, clean drinking water, removal of toilet waste from the local environment, and healthy hygiene behaviours.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://audit.wa.gov.au/reports-and-publications/reports/delivering-essential-services-remote-aboriginal-communities/communities-reliable-power-water-supply-water-quality-often-not-meet-australian-standards">Western Australian government</a> has reported that drinking water in some remote communities is contaminated with uranium, faecal bacteria and nitrates above the recommended levels. </p>
<p>This contamination – combined with problems such as irregular washing of faces, hands and bodies (often without soap), and overcrowding in homes – means that residents in these communities <a href="http://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2458-10-147">suffer from water- and hygiene-related health problems at a higher rate</a> than the general Australian population.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/improving-aboriginal-health-and-well-being-a-view-from-the-north-18522">health situation</a> in affected communities throws up some sobering facts. Australia is the <a href="http://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2458-8-153">only developed country</a> that has not eradicated <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/hygiene/disease/trachoma.html">trachoma</a>, a preventable <a href="http://www.who.int/gho/neglected_diseases/en">tropical disease</a> that can cause blindness. It persists in <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-vision-for-preventing-blindness-in-indigenous-communities-29700">remote areas with poor hygiene</a>, where children repeatedly pass on the infection. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128424/original/image-20160628-8002-1440geh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128424/original/image-20160628-8002-1440geh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128424/original/image-20160628-8002-1440geh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128424/original/image-20160628-8002-1440geh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128424/original/image-20160628-8002-1440geh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128424/original/image-20160628-8002-1440geh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128424/original/image-20160628-8002-1440geh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128424/original/image-20160628-8002-1440geh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cleaning faces can break the link with long-term ear and eye health impacts such as trachoma and deafness.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Footprints Network</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similarly, <a href="http://www.rch.org.au/kidsinfo/fact_sheets/Glue_Ear/">glue ear</a>, which is influenced by poor water and hygiene practices and can cause permanent hearing loss and developmental difficulties, is prominent in these communities. The <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/0BBD25C6FF8BDB06CA257C2F001458BF?opendocument">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> reported that one in eight Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people reported ear and/or hearing problems in 2012-13. This is significantly more than non-Indigenous people. </p>
<p>Installing properly managed <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26123218">community swimming pools</a> can provide a community-wide (and enjoyable) amenity that will also contribute to preventing glue ear, trachoma and other hygiene-related infections.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128426/original/image-20160628-28373-eyzx1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128426/original/image-20160628-28373-eyzx1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128426/original/image-20160628-28373-eyzx1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128426/original/image-20160628-28373-eyzx1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128426/original/image-20160628-28373-eyzx1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128426/original/image-20160628-28373-eyzx1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128426/original/image-20160628-28373-eyzx1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128426/original/image-20160628-28373-eyzx1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Community swimming pools have been found to be the best way to ensure clean skin and prevent the spread of neglected tropical diseases.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">OzOutback</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How committed is Australia to delivering at home?</h2>
<p>In signing up to the SDGs last September, the Australian government <a href="http://dfat.gov.au/aid/topics/development-issues/global-development-agenda/Pages/global-development-agenda.aspx">stated</a> that this agenda: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>…helps Australia in advocating for a strong focus on economic growth and development in the Indo-Pacific region … [and is] well aligned with Australia’s foreign, security and trade interests. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>What is glaring about this statement is the lack of any mention of a national focus.</p>
<p>Australia should focus on delivering safe water at home as well as abroad – especially given Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s new role as a member of the United Nations’ <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=53747#.V3HJ-U1f271">High-Level Panel on Water</a>.</p>
<p>Our <a href="http://www.gci.uq.edu.au/un-sustainable-development-goals-water-sanitation-and-hygiene">discussion paper</a> sets out how Australia can approach the task of delivering safe water, sanitation services and hygiene practices both at home and in the Asia-Pacific region. </p>
<p>One crucial recommendation is for government departments to avoid addressing the 17 SDGs (which have 169 different targets) as a simple “checklist”, because many of them overlap and intersect in complex ways. </p>
<p>For example, education quality (SDG 4) can affect gender equality (SDG 5), which in turn affects behaviour around water use and hygiene (SDG 6). Similarly, within SDG 6 itself are targets to protect water-based ecosystems, but this obviously influences the accompanying targets of water quality and universal human access to safe water. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/43840/1/9789241596435_eng.pdf">World Health Organisation</a> has estimated that access to clean, safe water and sanitation could reduce the global disease burden by almost 10%. The UN SDGs provide aspirational goals to address this. In Australia, the disease burden is low but persistent. This means that the goal for proper water and sanitation cannot be said to have been satisfactorily met. </p>
<p>This week’s UN talks offer an ideal time to put Australia’s remote communities in the spotlight and draw much-needed attention to the preventable toll of water-related health issues they still experience.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61436/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cindy Shannon is affiliated with AIATSIS as an external appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nina Lansbury and Paul Jagals do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Australia joins a New York summit to discuss the UN Sustainable Development Goals, it still faces questions over whether it is meeting water standards at home.Nina Lansbury, Sustainable Water Program Manager, Global Change Institute, The University of QueenslandCindy Shannon, Pro-Vice-Chancellor (Indigenous Engagement), The University of QueenslandPaul Jagals, Senior Lecturer, School of Public Health, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/615662016-06-26T19:59:52Z2016-06-26T19:59:52ZRush to dam northern Australia comes at the expense of sustainability<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128009/original/image-20160624-28354-56cvn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C870%2C582&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coping with floods is just one of the issues dams need to deal with. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tgerus/5327345774/in/photolist-97L3id-96RLBb-hcYBK-6v4e3W-e2eq4n-5TypqY-9p2ZkG-7ppBxb-gDndVD-99Et1T-dfEvXM-bhuWgD-8VvrSP-q5kZir-dg2ETJ-daCHJM-7U635Z-8zS3Tm-6s3Etp-kshyi2-aVcriK-4YJLN8-gpDn32-cKNSqs-gexcV7-9nUkeE-fDWe12-4y1iew-Gj2Tyf-6BYN3c-bdG5n2-hvdMup-9Fp87H-amdpTf-8C32en-dJyinw-96mTSe-9DfD5E-dqrGVD-a2ZeG2-7BG5aJ-94H8gs-9zxXdS-96pVHq-9nUkuY-cKNPUY-hcZ4A-gDmbSd-bmhx9g-4ZkDgm">Tatters ❀/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ahead of the election, the major parties have released different visions for developing northern Australia. The Coalition has committed to dam projects across Queensland; Labor has pledged to support the tourism industry. </p>
<p>These pledges build on the Coalition’s A$5 billion <a href="http://www.industry.gov.au/Industry/Northern-Australia-Infrastructure-Facility/Pages/default.aspx">Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility</a>, a fund to support large projects, starting on July 1. </p>
<p>The Coalition has pledged <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2016/05/26/coalition-begins-rollout-25-billion-dams-policy-queensland">A$20 million</a> to support 14 new or existing dams across Queensland should the government be returned to power, as part of a <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/coalitions-policy-invest-queenslands-water-infrastructure">A$2.5 billion plan</a> for dams across northern Australia.</p>
<p>Labor, meanwhile, will redirect <a href="http://markbutler.alp.org.au/news/2016/05/31/labors-pledge-for-a-northern-australia-tourism-powerhouse">A$1 billion from the fund</a> towards tourism, including eco-tourism, indigenous tourism ventures and transport infrastructure (airports, trains, and ports). </p>
<p>It is well recognised that the development of northern Australia will depend on harnessing the north’s abundant water resources. However, it’s also well recognised that the ongoing use of water resources to support industry and agriculture hinges on the health and sustainability of those water resources.</p>
<p>Northern Australia is home to diverse ecosystems, which support a range of ecosystem services and cultural values, and these must be adequately considered in the planning stages.</p>
<h2>Sustainability comes second</h2>
<p>The white paper for northern Australia focuses almost solely on driving growth and development. Current water resource management policy in Australia, however, emphasises integrated water resource planning and sustainable water use that protects key ecosystem functions.</p>
<p>Our concern is that the commitment to sustainability embedded in the <a href="http://www.nwc.gov.au/nwi">National Water Initiative</a> (NWI), as well as <a href="https://www.dnrm.qld.gov.au/water/catchments-planning/water-reform">Queensland’s water policies</a>, may become secondary in the rush to “fast track” these water infrastructure projects.</p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/damming-northern-australia-we-need-to-learn-hard-lessons-from-the-south-53885">Lessons from the past</a> show that the long-term success of large water infrastructure projects requires due process, including time for consultation, environmental assessments and investigation of alternative solutions.</p>
<h2>What is on the table?</h2>
<p>The Coalition <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/coalitions-policy-invest-queenslands-water-infrastructure">proposes</a> providing funds to investigate the feasibility of a range of projects, including upgrading existing dams and investigating new dams. The majority of these appear to be focused on increasing the reliability of water supplies in regional urban centres. Few target improved agricultural productivity.</p>
<p>These commitments add to the <a href="http://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/wt/releases/2015/July/wt208_2015.aspx">already proposed</a> feasibility study (A$10 million) of the Ord irrigation scheme in the Northern Territory and the construction of the Nullinga Dam in Queensland. And the A$15 million <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Major-initiatives/Northern-Australia/Current-work/NAWRA">northern Australia water resources assessment</a> being undertaken by CSIRO, which is focused on the Fitzroy river basin in Western Australia, the Darwin river basins in Northern Territory and the Mitchell river basin in Queensland.</p>
<h2>Rethinking dams</h2>
<p>New water infrastructure in the north should be part of an integrated investment program to limit overall environmental impacts. Focusing on new dams applies 19th-century thinking to a 21st-century problem, and we have three major concerns about the rush to build dams in northern Australia. </p>
<p>First, the process to establish infrastructure priorities for federal investment is unclear. For instance, it’s uncertain how the projects are connected to Queensland’s <a href="http://dilgp.qld.gov.au/resources/plan/sip/sip-part-b.pdf">State Infrastructure Plan</a>.</p>
<p>Investment in new water infrastructure across northern Australia needs to be part of a long-term water resource plan. This requires clearly articulated objectives for the development of northern Australia, along with assessment criteria that relate to economic, social and environmental outcomes, such as those used in the <a href="http://www.mdba.gov.au/basin-plan/whats-basin-plan">Murray-Darling Basin Plan</a>.</p>
<p>Second, the federal government emphasises on-stream dams. Dams built across the main river in this way have <a href="https://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/50/9/783.full">many</a> <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00267-002-2737-0">well-recognised</a> <a href="http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/52/8/659.short">problems</a>, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>lack of environmental flows (insufficient water at the appropriate frequency and duration to support ecosystems)</p></li>
<li><p>flow inversion (higher flows may occur in the dry season than in the wet, when the bulk of rainfall occurs)</p></li>
<li><p>barriers to fish movement and loss of connectivity to wetlands</p></li>
<li><p>water quality and temperature impacts (unless there is a multi-level off-take).</p></li>
</ul>
<p>As a minimum, new dams should be built away from major waterways (such as on small, tributary streams) and designed to minimise environmental impacts. This requires planning in the early stages, as such alternatives are extremely difficult to retrofit to an existing system.</p>
<p>Finally, the federal government proposals make no mention of <a href="http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/future-climate/regional-climate-change-explorer/super-clusters/?current=NSC&popup=true&tooltip=true">climate change impacts</a>. Irrigation and intensive manufacturing industries demand highly reliable water supplies.</p>
<p>While high-value use of water should be encouraged, new industries need to be able to adapt for the increased frequency of low flows; as well as increased intensity of flood events. Government investment needs to build resilience as well as high-value use.</p>
<h2>Detailed planning, not press releases</h2>
<p>In place of the rather ad hoc approach to improvements in water infrastructure, such as the projects announced by the federal government in advance of the election, we need a more holistic and considered approach.</p>
<p>The A$20 million investment for 14 feasibility studies and business cases in Queensland represents a relatively small amount of money for each project, and runs the risk of having them undertaken in isolation. The feasibility studies should be part of the entirety of <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/coalitions-policy-invest-queenslands-water-infrastructure">the government’s plan for A$2.5 billion</a> in new dams for northern Australia.</p>
<p>Water resource planning is too important and too expensive to cut corners on planning. Investment proposals for Queensland need to be integrated with water resource planning across the state, and across northern Australia, and with appropriate consideration of climate change impacts.</p>
<p>Fast tracking dams without considering ecosystem impacts, future variability in water supplies, and resilience in local communities merely sets the scene for future problems that will likely demand another round of intervention and reform.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61566/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The development of northern Australia will depend on harnessing water resources.Barry Hart, Emeritus Professor Water Science, Monash UniversityAvril Horne, Research fellow, Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of MelbourneErin O'Donnell, Senior Fellow, Centre for Resources, Energy and Environment Law, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/602522016-06-01T20:16:02Z2016-06-01T20:16:02ZStaying safe in crocodile country: culling isn’t the answer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124705/original/image-20160601-3253-w81kjl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Not everyone can see past the hard stare and sharp teeth of crocodiles.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam Britton</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-30/cindy-waldron-feared-dead-in-croc-attack-daintree-far-north-qld/7457878">killing of tourist Cindy Waldron</a> by a saltwater crocodile while swimming north of Cairns on Sunday has reignited the debate about <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/crocodile-attack-bob-katter-lashes-warren-entsch-comments-20160530-gp7p6h.html">how to keep people safe from crocs</a>. Federal MP Bob Katter has called for a bigger crocodile cull, although the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-31/crocodile-cull-ruled-out-by-qld-government-daintree-attack/7463722">Queensland government has once again ruled this out</a>. There are very good reasons for this decision.</p>
<p>The evidence suggests that calls for complete deregulation of croc hunting are <a href="https://theconversation.com/open-season-on-crocodiles-is-not-the-solution-to-attacks-on-people-30722">based on flawed arguments</a>. The easiest way to keep people safe is to make sure they understand the risks. </p>
<h2>What have we been doing about crocodiles?</h2>
<p>Crocodile populations have been managed in northern Australia since the early 1970s. Before that, it was <a href="https://theconversation.com/open-season-on-crocodiles-is-not-the-solution-to-attacks-on-people-30722">open season</a>: three decades of hunting wiped out 95% of wild crocodiles, although getting them all proved impossible. </p>
<p>Many hunters grew to respect these unequivocally Australian “beasts”, supporting their subsequent protection. Yet their numbers bounced back much faster than anyone expected. Questions were soon being asked about the wisdom of allowing their recovery.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124709/original/image-20160601-3253-ew7vts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124709/original/image-20160601-3253-ew7vts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124709/original/image-20160601-3253-ew7vts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124709/original/image-20160601-3253-ew7vts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124709/original/image-20160601-3253-ew7vts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124709/original/image-20160601-3253-ew7vts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124709/original/image-20160601-3253-ew7vts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sub-adult saltwater crocodile basking on a tidal mud bank, a popular sight for the many tourists who visit northern Australia each year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam Britton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recognising the value of crocodiles to people and ecosystem health, the Northern Territory government changed tack. Crocs became tourism icons, their eggs and skins were harvested sustainably to create local jobs and a fledgling industry, and safety issues were managed by the targeted removal of “problem” crocodiles, alongside visible media campaigns about staying safe. Despite differences between states and territory, the same basic approach is still used.</p>
<p>Has it been effective in saving lives? The first subsequent recorded fatal attack in Queensland <a href="http://www.crocodile-attack.info/incident/100-4242">happened in 1975</a>, when Peter Reimers was killed while wading in a creek near Mission River. This was only a year after the crocodile population had been protected because it was on the verge of disappearing. Three decades of unregulated hunting hadn’t saved Reimers’ life. </p>
<p>The latest statistics as compiled by <a href="http://www.crocodile-attack.info">CrocBITE</a> show 112 attacks between 1971 and May 2016, 33 (30%) of them fatal. That’s an average of 2.5 non-fatal attacks per year and 0.7 fatal attacks per year across Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland. The rate has increased slightly over the past decade, but crocodile attacks remain extremely rare in Australia. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124689/original/image-20160531-1925-19vc5ea.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124689/original/image-20160531-1925-19vc5ea.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124689/original/image-20160531-1925-19vc5ea.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124689/original/image-20160531-1925-19vc5ea.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124689/original/image-20160531-1925-19vc5ea.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124689/original/image-20160531-1925-19vc5ea.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=677&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124689/original/image-20160531-1925-19vc5ea.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=677&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124689/original/image-20160531-1925-19vc5ea.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=677&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of reported saltwater crocodile attacks per country (April 2007 to April 2014). Fatal proportion in red, percentage shows fatality rate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam Britton / CrocBITE</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0126778">average size of crocodiles is increasing</a> as the population continues to mature towards full recovery. However, given the very low number of attacks, it’s difficult to assess if this has had any impact on the fatality rate. </p>
<p>Attacks usually happen because people <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0126778">get in the water with crocodiles</a>. Such an obvious cause should be easy to prevent, and indeed this is the case. </p>
<p>Attack risk in Australia is low, largely because of the success of <a href="https://nt.gov.au/emergency/community-safety/crocodile-safety-be-crocwise">long-running campaigns</a> to warn people of the dangers of swimming in crocodile-populated waters. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124711/original/image-20160601-1923-ctxgsj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124711/original/image-20160601-1923-ctxgsj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124711/original/image-20160601-1923-ctxgsj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124711/original/image-20160601-1923-ctxgsj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124711/original/image-20160601-1923-ctxgsj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124711/original/image-20160601-1923-ctxgsj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124711/original/image-20160601-1923-ctxgsj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What lurks beneath? If you’re in crocodile habitat and you find water, always assume that it harbours a crocodile.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam Britton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Those who live locally are generally most keenly aware of the dangers. Sadly, a disproportionate number of <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16209470">attack victims</a> are visitors who aren’t as aware of the risks. The real problem can therefore be interpreted as a failure to communicate risk, and therein lies the solution.</p>
<h2>How to not get eaten by a crocodile</h2>
<p>Crocodile attacks are traumatic, unfortunate and potentially tragic incidents that generally can be avoided. Australia has an excellent track record in saving people from crocodile attack. Despite having more saltwater crocodiles than any other country, we have low fatality rates because our management and education program is world-class. </p>
<p>Other countries with crocodiles come to Australia for advice on how to manage their crocodile populations and <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/view/journals/dsp_journals_pip_abstract_scholar1.cfm?nid=126&pip=MF15354">prevent conflict with people</a>.</p>
<p>But there’s still a grey area for many people. How do you know whether it’s safe to swim in northern Australia? What’s the risk of doing so? </p>
<p>We make decisions every day to assess risk, whether we’re driving, walking down the street, swimming in a pool, or taking a boat out on the water. We’ve been trained to minimise the risks we face.</p>
<p>The same is true of going into the bush and facing potential dangers from snakes, mosquitoes or other animals. Sometimes accidents will happen, often because someone decided to push their luck. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124707/original/image-20160601-1964-qw5ck.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124707/original/image-20160601-1964-qw5ck.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124707/original/image-20160601-1964-qw5ck.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124707/original/image-20160601-1964-qw5ck.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124707/original/image-20160601-1964-qw5ck.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124707/original/image-20160601-1964-qw5ck.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124707/original/image-20160601-1964-qw5ck.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124707/original/image-20160601-1964-qw5ck.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Distribution of saltwater crocodiles throughout their range, including northern Australia. Green are viable populations, orange are recently extirpated populations and blue represents their potential for movement within and between countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brandon Sideleau / CrocBITE</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But with crocodiles <a href="https://nt.gov.au/emergency/community-safety/crocodile-safety-be-crocwise/how-to-stay-safe">the rules are simple</a>: don’t enter the water in crocodile habitat. In these areas, stay away from the water’s edge, don’t disturb water consistently in the same place, don’t approach or tease crocodiles, camp at least 50 metres from the bank, and don’t go out in small, unstable boats.</p>
<p>Warning signs about crocodiles are there for a reason, to allow you to make an informed decision about your personal safety. Ignore them and you may get away with it, but eventually you will not.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124712/original/image-20160601-1951-dz33y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124712/original/image-20160601-1951-dz33y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124712/original/image-20160601-1951-dz33y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124712/original/image-20160601-1951-dz33y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124712/original/image-20160601-1951-dz33y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124712/original/image-20160601-1951-dz33y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124712/original/image-20160601-1951-dz33y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The name ‘saltwater crocodile’ is misleading. They are equally at home in freshwater habitats.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam Britton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There’s little doubt that Australia knows how to manage wild crocodile populations. The risk of being attacked by a crocodile here is vanishingly small because crocs and people are managed effectively. </p>
<p>We already have a limited cull of crocodiles; the targeting and removal of specific animals that, through their actions, pose an elevated risk to the public. A wider cull won’t gain anything, at the cost of local livelihoods and our natural resources.</p>
<p><em>This article was co-authored by Erin Britton, a biologist at <a href="http://big-gecko.com/">Big Gecko Crocodilian Research</a> in Darwin.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60252/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Britton received funding from Charles Darwin University to develop the technology for the CrocBITE database.</span></em></p>The easiest way to keep people safe around crocodiles is to make sure they understand the risks.Adam Britton, Senior Research Associate, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.