tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/nutrient-runoff-18646/articlesNutrient runoff – The Conversation2024-02-13T13:20:14Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2151272024-02-13T13:20:14Z2024-02-13T13:20:14ZFlowers grown floating on polluted waterways can help clean up nutrient runoff and turn a profit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573604/original/file-20240205-30-14awa7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6173%2C4087&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The cut flowers could pay for themselves and even turn a profit.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Margi Rentis</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Flowers grown on inexpensive floating platforms can help clean polluted waterways, over 12 weeks extracting 52% more phosphorus and 36% more nitrogen than the natural nitrogen cycle removes from untreated water, according to our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envadv.2023.100405">new research</a>. In addition to filtering water, the cut flowers can generate income via the <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=106472">multibillion-dollar floral market</a>. </p>
<p>In our trials of various flowers, giant marigolds stood out as the most successful, producing long, marketable stems and large blooms. Their yield matched typical <a href="https://www.lsuagcenter.com/articles/page1662131594449">flower farm production</a>.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.epa.gov/nps/basic-information-about-nonpoint-source-nps-pollution">Water pollution</a> is caused in large part by runoff from farms, urban lawns and even septic tanks. When it rains, excess phosphorus, nitrogen and other chemicals wash into lakes and rivers.</p>
<p>These nutrients feed algae, leading to widespread and harmful algae blooms, which can severely lower oxygen in water, creating “<a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2021/goal-14/">dead zones</a>” where aquatic life cannot survive. Nutrient runoff is a critical issue as urban areas expand, affecting the health of water ecosystems. </p>
<p>Water pollution is an escalating crisis in our area of Miami-Dade and Broward counties in Florida. The <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/b5d43852c8984a4c8db4d077ec04bd35">2020 Biscayne Bay fish kill</a>, the largest mass death of aquatic life on record for the region, serves as a stark reminder of this growing environmental issue.</p>
<h2>How we do our work</h2>
<p>We study <a href="https://case.fiu.edu/earth-environment/agroecology/">sustainable agriculture</a> and <a href="https://crestcache.fiu.edu/">water pollution</a> in South Florida.</p>
<p>Inspired by traditional floating farm practices, including the Aztecs’ <a href="https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20221009-the-return-of-aztec-floating-farms">chinampas in Mexico</a> and the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/video/the-secret-islands-of-the-everglades-lncj6r/">Miccosukees’ tree island settlements in Florida</a>, we tested the idea of growing cut flowers on floating rafts as a way to remove excess nutrients from waterways. Our hope was not only that the flowers would pay for themselves, but that they could provide jobs here in Miami, the center of the U.S. cut-flower trade.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573507/original/file-20240205-23-zkmaeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An outdoor tank contains a large floating perforated mat. Each hole contains a young plant." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573507/original/file-20240205-23-zkmaeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573507/original/file-20240205-23-zkmaeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573507/original/file-20240205-23-zkmaeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573507/original/file-20240205-23-zkmaeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573507/original/file-20240205-23-zkmaeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573507/original/file-20240205-23-zkmaeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573507/original/file-20240205-23-zkmaeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chemical conditions in the test tanks were the same as in nearby polluted waterways.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jazmin Locke-Rodriguez</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We floated 4-by-6-foot (1.2-by-1.8-meter) mats of inexpensive polyethylene foam called <a href="http://www.beemats.com/">Beemats</a> in 620-gallon (2,300-liter) outdoor test tanks that mirrored water conditions of nearby polluted waterways. Into the mats we transplanted flower seedlings, including zinnias, sunflowers and giant marigolds. The polluted tank water was rich in nutrients, eliminating the need for any fertilizer. As the seedlings matured into plants over 12 weeks, we tracked the tanks’ improving water quality. </p>
<p>Encouraged by the success of the marigolds in our tanks, we moved our trials to the nearby canals of Coral Gables and Little River. We anchored the floating platforms with 50-pound (22.7-kilograms) weights and also tied them to shore for extra stability. No alterations to the landscape were needed, making the process simple and doable.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573517/original/file-20240205-15-ot28qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Closeup photo of base of a marigold plant showing a tangle of visible roots." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573517/original/file-20240205-15-ot28qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573517/original/file-20240205-15-ot28qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573517/original/file-20240205-15-ot28qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573517/original/file-20240205-15-ot28qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573517/original/file-20240205-15-ot28qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573517/original/file-20240205-15-ot28qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573517/original/file-20240205-15-ot28qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some plants grow roots in places – such as the stem – other than where their original roots began.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jazmin Locke-Rodriguez</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>The success of the giant marigolds might be linked to the extra roots that grow from their stems known as <a href="https://propg.ifas.ufl.edu/05-cuttings/01-terminology/01-cuttingterms-adventitiousroot.html">adventitious roots</a>. These roots likely help keep the plants stable on the floating platforms. Identifying additional plants with roots like these could help broaden plant choices. </p>
<p>Future raft designs may also need modifications to ensure better stability and growth for other cut-flower and crop species. </p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>Our promising findings show floating cut-flower farms could be a sustainable option for mitigating water pollution. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Nim52wi_4z4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How floating cut-flower farms can clean polluted waterways.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One of us (Locke-Rodriguez) is expanding this research and working to scale up floating farms in South Florida as a demonstration of what could take place in the many locations facing similar issues worldwide.</p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215127/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jazmin Locke received funding from the USDA-NIFA-NNF and NSF-CREST as a PhD student to help fund this dissertation research at Florida International University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:jayachan@fiu.edu">jayachan@fiu.edu</a> receives funding from USDA-NIFA. </span></em></p>Phosphorus and nitrogen contribute to water pollution and cause harmful algal blooms. New research shows how mats of floating flower beds can take advantage of these nutrients while cleaning the water.Jazmin Locke-Rodriguez, Post Doctoral Associate in the Institute of Environment, Florida International UniversityKrishnaswamy Jayachandran, Professor of Agroecology, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143642023-10-08T19:26:21Z2023-10-08T19:26:21ZThere’s a hidden source of excess nutrients suffocating the Great Barrier Reef. We found it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551919/original/file-20231003-17-uvt38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C108%2C5083%2C3337&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coral impacted by excess nutrients in the Great Barrier Reef.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ashly McMahon</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Great Barrier Reef is one of Australia’s most important environmental and economic assets. It is estimated to contribute A$56 billion per year and supports about 64,000 full-time jobs, <a href="https://www.barrierreef.org/the-reef/the-value">according to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation</a>. However, the reef is under increasing pressure. </p>
<p>While much public attention is focused on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/severely-threatened-and-deteriorating-global-authority-on-nature-lists-the-great-barrier-reef-as-critical-151275">impacts of climate change</a> on the Great Barrier Reef and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-government-was-blindsided-by-un-recommendation-to-list-great-barrier-reef-as-in-danger-but-its-no-great-surprise-163159">debate around its endangered status</a>, water quality is also crucial to the reef’s health and survival.</p>
<p>Our new study, published today in the journal <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.3c03725.">Environmental Science and Technology</a>, found that previously unquantified groundwater inputs are the largest source of new nutrients to the reef. This finding could potentially change how the Great Barrier Reef is managed.</p>
<h2>Too much of a good thing</h2>
<p>Although nitrogen and phosphorous are essential to support the incredible biodiversity of the reef, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272771416301469">too much nutrient</a> can lead to losses of coral biodiversity and coverage. It also increases the abundance of algae and the ability of coral larvae to grow into adult coral, and impacts seagrass coverage and health, which is crucial for fisheries and biodiversity. </p>
<p>Nutrient enrichment can also promote the breeding success of <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00338-010-0628-z">crown-of-thorns starfish</a>, whose increasing populations and voracious appetite for corals have decimated parts of the reef in recent decades. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551916/original/file-20231003-29-k9m16h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A side by side underwater photo collage of vivid healthy coral and pale murky coral" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551916/original/file-20231003-29-k9m16h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551916/original/file-20231003-29-k9m16h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551916/original/file-20231003-29-k9m16h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551916/original/file-20231003-29-k9m16h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551916/original/file-20231003-29-k9m16h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=252&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551916/original/file-20231003-29-k9m16h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=252&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551916/original/file-20231003-29-k9m16h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=252&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pristine coral and coral affected by excess nutrient in the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ashly McMahon</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What are the sources of nutrients driving the degradation of the reef? Previous studies have <a href="https://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0031/45994/2017-scientific-consensus-statement-summary-chap02.pdf">focused on river discharge</a>. According to one estimate, there has been a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0025326X11005583">fourfold increase in riverine nutrient</a> input to the Great Barrier Reef since pre-industrial times.</p>
<p>This past focus on rivers has emphasised reducing surface water nutrient inputs through changing regulations for land-clearing and agriculture, while neglecting other potential sources. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-of-nutrients-from-fertilisers-and-wastewater-trash-our-rivers-could-offsetting-help-203235">Floods of nutrients from fertilisers and wastewater trash our rivers. Could offsetting help?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, the most recent nutrient budget for the Great Barrier Reef found river-derived nutrient inputs can account for only a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0278434311003025">small proportion of the nutrients</a> necessary to support the abundant life in the reef. This imbalance suggests large, unidentified sources of nutrients to the reef. Not knowing what these are may lead to ineffective management approaches.</p>
<p>With recent government funding of <a href="https://www.barrierreef.org/what-we-do/reef-trust-partnership">more than $200 million to tackle water quality on the reef</a> which is largely focused on managing river water inputs, it is crucial to make sure other nutrient sources are not overlooked.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551905/original/file-20231003-19-ayf7sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram listing nutrient sources to the reef" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551905/original/file-20231003-19-ayf7sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551905/original/file-20231003-19-ayf7sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551905/original/file-20231003-19-ayf7sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551905/original/file-20231003-19-ayf7sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551905/original/file-20231003-19-ayf7sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551905/original/file-20231003-19-ayf7sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551905/original/file-20231003-19-ayf7sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The source of potential groundwater inputs to the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Douglas Tait</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>We found a new nutrient source</h2>
<p>Our research team decided to try and track down this missing source of nutrients.</p>
<p>We used natural tracers to track groundwater inputs off Queensland’s coast. This allows us to quantify how much invisible groundwater flows into the Great Barrier Reef, along with the nutrients hitching a ride with this water. Our findings indicate that current efforts to preserve and restore the health of the reef may require a new perspective.</p>
<p>Our team collected data from offshore surveys, rivers and coastal bores along the coastline from south of Rockhampton to north of Cairns. We used the natural groundwater tracer radium to track how much nutrient is transported from the land and shelf sediments via invisible groundwater flows.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-disgruntled-scientist-looking-to-prove-his-food-wasnt-fresh-discovered-radioactive-tracers-and-won-a-nobel-prize-80-years-ago-214784">How a disgruntled scientist looking to prove his food wasn't fresh discovered radioactive tracers and won a Nobel Prize 80 years ago</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551907/original/file-20231003-19-ves2t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A blue and white ship sailing on a calm ocean" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551907/original/file-20231003-19-ves2t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551907/original/file-20231003-19-ves2t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551907/original/file-20231003-19-ves2t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551907/original/file-20231003-19-ves2t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551907/original/file-20231003-19-ves2t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551907/original/file-20231003-19-ves2t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551907/original/file-20231003-19-ves2t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The AIMS research vessel, Cape Ferguson.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ashly McMahon</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found that groundwater discharge was 10–15 times greater than river inputs. This meant roughly one-third of new nitrogen and two-thirds of phosphorous inputs came via groundwater discharge. This was nearly twice the amount of nutrient delivered by river waters.</p>
<p>Past investigations have revealed that groundwater discharge delivers nutrients and affects water quality in a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-021-00152-0">diverse range of coastal environments</a>, including estuaries, coral reefs, coastal embayments and lagoons, intertidal wetlands such as mangroves and saltmarshes, the continental shelf and even the global ocean.</p>
<p>In some cases, this can account for <a href="https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.4319/lo.2011.56.2.0673">90% of the nutrient inputs</a> to coastal areas, which has major implications for global biologic production. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, this pathway remains overlooked in most coastal nutrient budgets and water quality models.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551909/original/file-20231003-29-npys7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A beach early in the morning with people digging into the sand" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551909/original/file-20231003-29-npys7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551909/original/file-20231003-29-npys7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551909/original/file-20231003-29-npys7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551909/original/file-20231003-29-npys7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551909/original/file-20231003-29-npys7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551909/original/file-20231003-29-npys7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551909/original/file-20231003-29-npys7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The research team sampling groundwater near the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ashly McMahon</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A paradigm shift needed?</h2>
<p>Our results suggest the need for a strategic <a href="https://niwa.co.nz/our-science/freshwater/tools/kaitiaki_tools/land-use/agriculture/mitigation">shift in management approaches</a> aimed at safeguarding the Great Barrier Reef from the effects of excess nutrients.</p>
<p>This includes better land management practices to ensure fewer nutrients are entering groundwater aquifers. We can also use ecological (such as seaweed and bivalve aquaculture, enhancing seagrass, oyster reefs, mangroves and salt marsh) and hydrological (increasing flushing where possible) practices at groundwater discharge hotspots to <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00470/full">reduce excess nutrients in the water column</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://medium.com/water-food-nexus/water-recycling-and-reuse-in-agriculture-for-circularity-of-food-and-water-f08fe4b131b3">The reuse of nutrient-rich groundwater</a> for agriculture also needs to be explored as it represents an untapped and inexpensive nutrient source.</p>
<p>Importantly, unlike river outflow, nutrients in groundwater can be <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S004896972035539X">stored underground for decades</a> before being discharged into coastal waters. This means research and strategies to protect the reef need to be long-term. The potential large lag time may lead to significant problems in the coming decades as the nutrients now stored in underground aquifers make their way to coastal waters regardless of changes to current land use practices.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551908/original/file-20231003-17-z4u9tf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A vivid landscape of colourful corals in an underwater photo" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551908/original/file-20231003-17-z4u9tf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551908/original/file-20231003-17-z4u9tf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551908/original/file-20231003-17-z4u9tf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551908/original/file-20231003-17-z4u9tf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551908/original/file-20231003-17-z4u9tf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551908/original/file-20231003-17-z4u9tf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551908/original/file-20231003-17-z4u9tf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pristine corals on the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ashly McMahon</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The understanding and ability to manage the sources of nutrients is pivotal in preserving global coral reef systems.</p>
<p>While we need to reduce the impact of climate change on this fragile ecosystem, we also need to adjust our policies to manage nutrient inputs and safeguard the Great Barrier Reef for generations to come.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/out-of-danger-because-the-un-said-so-hardly-the-barrier-reef-is-still-in-hot-water-210787">Out of danger because the UN said so? Hardly – the Barrier Reef is still in hot water</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214364/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors receive funding from the Australian Research Council, the Herman Slade Foundation and the Great Barrier Reef Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Damien Maher receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Hermon Slade Foundation, Great Barrier Reef Foundation. </span></em></p>While the Great Barrier Reed needs nutrients to support the ecosystem, it is possible to have too much of a good thing.Douglas Tait, Senior Researcher, Southern Cross UniversityDamien Maher, Professor, Southern Cross UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835132022-09-05T13:09:42Z2022-09-05T13:09:42ZResidential green spaces protect growing cities against climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467049/original/file-20220605-58910-zj686t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C11%2C3946%2C2982&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Aerial view of a residential neighbourhood with abundant urban forest around it</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/aerial-view-of-green-trees-near-the-road-7919958/">(Ollie Craig/pexels)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada is a highly urbanized country, with <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?locations=CA">more than 80 per cent of residents living in urban centres</a>. The urban population <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.GROW?locations=CA">is growing by more than 400,000 annually</a>, and these new urban residents need housing. </p>
<p>With affordable housing in decline, there are loud <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/mmah-housing-affordability-task-force-report-en-2022-02-07-v2.pdf">calls to massively increase the number of homes being built</a>. Unfortunately, conventional residential development destroys large amounts of green space. <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/16-002-x/2021001/article/00002-eng.pdf?st=Ho_92lU6">The average greenness of urban areas across Canada declined five percentage points</a> between 2001 and 2019, and even more in larger cities. </p>
<p>The loss of urban green space leads to increases in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/ca/academic/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/climatology-and-climate-change/climate-change-and-cities-second-assessment-report-urban-climate-change-research-network?format=PB&isbn=9781316603338">urban heat and flooding</a>, which are amplified by climate change, and can threaten human health and well-being, and property. They also degrade natural ecosystems and the biodiversity they support.</p>
<p>Perversely, <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/09/1046662">poorly planned cities themselves contribute to climate change</a>. As Canadian cities move to tackle the housing shortage, they should take care not to worsen climate change and its impacts. </p>
<h2>Urbanization and climate change</h2>
<p>Heat waves can lead to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113751">heat-related illness and death, some of which might be avoided with increased urban tree canopy</a>. Urban flooding due to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.115597">increasingly severe storms can be reduced through well-designed green infrastructure, including green spaces</a>. And urban green spaces can maintain biodiversity, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/een.13041">insects</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2016.00122">birds</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01599.x">fish</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A shaded sidewalk, with trees overhead, grass on either side and a car in a driveway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467050/original/file-20220605-58851-izbmbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467050/original/file-20220605-58851-izbmbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467050/original/file-20220605-58851-izbmbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467050/original/file-20220605-58851-izbmbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467050/original/file-20220605-58851-izbmbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467050/original/file-20220605-58851-izbmbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467050/original/file-20220605-58851-izbmbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tree-lined street in a residential neighbourhood.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Rebecca Rooney)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although many Canadians consider a detached house to be their dream home, conventional residential development may worsen climate change. Most residential developments, whether infill or in previously open spaces, remove existing vegetation. This process releases stored carbon into the atmosphere and undermines future carbon storage potential. </p>
<p>A recent study found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2016.09.002">each year, Canadian urban forests remove over 660 kilotonnes of carbon from the atmosphere</a>. These climate change mitigation benefits are reduced when urban trees and green spaces are removed. Even when new landscaping is put in place, young trees and lawns do not provide the heat mitigation, flood protection and biodiversity support of more mature landscapes. </p>
<p>Most conventional residential developments also <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00029">add large amounts of sealed surfaces, such as roads, sidewalks, driveways, patios and roofs to the urban environment</a>. Rainfall runs off these sealed surfaces instead of being caught by vegetation or seeping into the ground. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial view of residential neighbourhood with minimal tree cover." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467051/original/file-20220605-15704-aevn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467051/original/file-20220605-15704-aevn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467051/original/file-20220605-15704-aevn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467051/original/file-20220605-15704-aevn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467051/original/file-20220605-15704-aevn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467051/original/file-20220605-15704-aevn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467051/original/file-20220605-15704-aevn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New residential developments often replace green spaces with roads, sidewalks and other sealed surfaces.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Digital Maples/Pexels)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The manicured lawns surrounding houses do not help much, and may contribute runoff polluted with fertilizer, pesticides and sediment. Runoff from sealed surfaces and lawns often flows into creeks, rivers and lakes, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/es800264f">where it decreases water quality</a>. </p>
<p>Alternatively, runoff may be collected in engineered storm water management ponds, which can be effective if managed well. But if poorly designed and managed, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b03185">they can be a significant source of urban greenhouse gas emissions including methane</a>, further intensifying climate change.</p>
<h2>What cities do to fight climate change</h2>
<p>By early 2022, <a href="https://raog.ca/climate-emergency-declarations-canada/">over 600 Canadian municipalities had declared a climate emergency</a>. Some of them are taking action by <a href="https://mnai.ca/media/2019/08/spmnaijuly31-summaryweb.pdf">conserving natural ecosystems and better integrating them into their operations</a>. Others are beginning to use <a href="https://www.cleanairpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GDS-toolkit.pdf">green development standards</a> to guide developers in building more sustainable communities. </p>
<p>Even so, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/16-002-x/2021001/article/00002-eng.htm">78 per cent of large Canadian cities have continued to lose tree canopy over the past 20 years</a>. This may be because green space conservation and creation are not well incentivized in the planning and development process.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map showing tree cover in Toronto, which accentuates the parks and ravine systems." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473079/original/file-20220707-22-e1lxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473079/original/file-20220707-22-e1lxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473079/original/file-20220707-22-e1lxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473079/original/file-20220707-22-e1lxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473079/original/file-20220707-22-e1lxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473079/original/file-20220707-22-e1lxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473079/original/file-20220707-22-e1lxzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tree cover distribution in Toronto in 2018. Greenness in Toronto has decreased from 68 per cent in 2001 to 65 per cent in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(City of Toronto)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Municipal governments are accountable for their financial expenditures to their local residents, and residential development is a business that needs to generate a profit. But while improved green spaces may generate small premiums for environmentally oriented home buyers, land developers are not compensated for the public goods these green spaces provide. </p>
<p>Cities need new ideas that go beyond green infrastructure checklists that incentivize developers only to fulfil minimum expectations and do not take the future climate change performance of these natural assets into consideration.</p>
<h2>Research must help cities fight climate change</h2>
<p>To address this problem, we need better data on the impact of residential developments on the natural environment. We need to create carefully and rigorously designed studies that address the wicked problem of the housing, climate and biodiversity crises. </p>
<p>These studies must assess residential developments, vegetation changes, water flows, greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity impacts — all integrated into one complex system. They must assess building sites before and after development, projecting and comparing future environmental conditions. And they must support the development of reasonable and economically feasible residential plans that incentivize developers to choose designs that minimize environmental impacts or enhance the urban natural environment.</p>
<p>To drive change toward more environmentally friendly residential developments, we must go beyond typical scientific studies and instead present results in formats that are useful for municipal decision-makers, developers and future home buyers. Cities can then work with developers to identify the best elements of landscape design to implement into the development of the site.</p>
<p>Tools that show how natural assets such as trees and green spaces will perform in the future will highlight those developments that will make strong environmental contributions. This will provide progressive developers with a marketing and reputational edge.</p>
<p>This approach gives municipalities the evidence they need to argue for more environmentally friendly landscape designs. It gives developers the opportunity to innovate. And it gives future home buyers the chance to choose houses that help them lead more sustainable lives.</p>
<p>As a society, we should not solve the housing crisis by amplifying the climate and biodiversity crises. We can and must do better.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Drescher receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and the Municipal Natural Assets Initiative.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dawn Parker has received related funding from the Chesapeake Watershed Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit/National Park Service (US), US National Science Foundation, and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Rooney receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and Environment and Climate Change Canada. </span></em></p>Well-designed residential developments with abundant tree cover can help protect cities against urban heat and flooding.Michael Drescher, Associate Professor, School of Planning, University of WaterlooDawn Parker, Professor in the School of Planning, Faculty of Environment, University of WaterlooRebecca Rooney, Associate Professor, Department of Biology, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1513892020-12-04T14:05:31Z2020-12-04T14:05:31ZCan countries end overfishing and plastic pollution in just 10 years?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373070/original/file-20201204-15-1uieyku.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=573%2C577%2C2297%2C1289&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fishing-ship-530558665">Artem Mishukov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In my career as a marine biologist, I’ve been fortunate enough to visit some of the most remote islands in the world. These beautiful places continue to remind me why I have this job in the first place, but they also bring home the pervasive influence of human societies. Uninhabited bird colonies on the Canadian West Coast, remote tropical Japanese islands, and tiny bits of land in South East Asia all have one thing in common: plastic waste on the beach.</p>
<p>When at home in Sweden, I regularly swim and sail in the Baltic Sea. But agricultural fertilisers and other types of pollution have created dead zones where fish either leave or suffocate. Meanwhile, offshore fisheries and aquaculture farms in many parts of the world overharvest and pollute the water. We know what proper management of these activities could look like, but political will has so far not been equal to the challenge.</p>
<p>That may be about to change. A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/global-sustainable-fishing-initiative-agreed-by-14-countries">recent agreement</a> between 14 heads of state – together representing 40% of the world’s coastline – promised to end overfishing, restore fish stocks and halt the flow of plastic pollution into the ocean within a decade.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A tropical beach strewn with plastic waste." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373068/original/file-20201204-19-dli2yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373068/original/file-20201204-19-dli2yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373068/original/file-20201204-19-dli2yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373068/original/file-20201204-19-dli2yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373068/original/file-20201204-19-dli2yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373068/original/file-20201204-19-dli2yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373068/original/file-20201204-19-dli2yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ocean problems implicate every country – and demand coordinated solutions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beach-pollution-plastic-waste-ocean-on-1186745014">Musleemin Noitubtim/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Interconnected problems</h2>
<p>Pollution, plastics and unsustainable seafood may look like isolated problems, but they influence each other. As nutrients run off farmland and into the sea, they affect the conditions fish need to thrive. Pollution makes our seafood <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts/ocean-pollution#:%7E:text=The%20impact%20of%20marine%20pollution,food%20out%20of%20the%20water.">less healthy</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/galapagos-how-to-protect-the-islands-amazing-marine-life-from-huge-chinese-fishing-fleets-144927">overfishing</a> is pushing some fish stocks beyond their capacity to renew themselves.</p>
<p>All of these stresses are amplified by global warming. The ocean has been acting as a sink for CO₂ emissions and excess heat for decades, but there is only so much that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/03/great-barrier-reef-outlook-critical-as-climate-change-called-number-one-threat-to-world-heritage">marine ecosystems</a> can take <a href="https://theconversation.com/one-fifth-of-ecosystems-in-danger-of-collapse-heres-what-that-might-look-like-148137">before collapsing</a>. And we shouldn’t think these problems won’t affect us – <a href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-climate-change-is-making-hurricanes-more-dangerous/">stronger storms</a>, fuelled by <a href="https://oceantoday.noaa.gov/fuelforthestorm/">warmer ocean waters</a>, are <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world">happening more often</a>. </p>
<p>It’s in everyone’s interests to protect the ocean. Clean seas would be more profitable and <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaao1378">research</a> suggests that better managed fisheries could generate six times more food than they do currently. The exclusive economic zones of coastal states would be more productive if every country agreed to protect the high seas. And sailing in the Baltic Sea would be much nicer if the boat didn’t have to plough a thick, green sludge. </p>
<p>So how can the world make progress – and what’s holding us back?</p>
<h2>International solutions</h2>
<p>As part of the recent agreement between 14 heads of state, the participating countries – Australia, Canada, Chile, Fiji, Ghana, Indonesia, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, Namibia, Norway, Palau and Portugal – committed to a number of goals within their national waters, including investment in zero-emission shipping, eliminating waste and ensuring fisheries are sustainable. The aim is to ensure all activity within these exclusive economic zones is sustainable by 2025.</p>
<p>The countries agreed to fast-track their plan for action, rather than work through the UN. Their combined national waters roughly equal the size of Africa. They each have clear stakes in the continued functioning of ocean ecosystems and economies, so this pragmatic approach makes sense. That’s a sentiment that businesses could no doubt respect. After all, there are no economic opportunities in a dead ocean.</p>
<p>The agreement is an encouraging message from political leaders, and these states can leverage vast sums of money and resources to effect change. But the ocean is home to <a href="https://theconversation.com/blue-acceleration-our-dash-for-ocean-resources-mirrors-what-weve-already-done-to-the-land-130264">a dozen global industries</a>, and around <a href="https://ungc-communications-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/publications/Call-To-Action_Imminent-Threats-to-the-Integrity-of-Global-Supply-Chains.pdf">50,000 vessels</a> traverse it at any one time. Clearly, we need more than governments to deliver on this ambitious agenda.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Colourful shipping containers and cranes fill a bustling seaport." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373069/original/file-20201204-21-1e5z9m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373069/original/file-20201204-21-1e5z9m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373069/original/file-20201204-21-1e5z9m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373069/original/file-20201204-21-1e5z9m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373069/original/file-20201204-21-1e5z9m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373069/original/file-20201204-21-1e5z9m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373069/original/file-20201204-21-1e5z9m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Shipping accounts for nearly 90% of all global trade.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ukraine-odessa-september-7-2019-color-1658009893">Harmony Video Production/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My scientific colleagues and I have been developing a <a href="https://seabos.org">global coalition</a> of businesses concerned with sustainable seafood. Our strategy is to find “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0133">keystone actors</a>” within the private sector – companies with a disproportionate ability to influence change due to their size and strength. </p>
<p>The seafood industry is vast, and includes some of the largest companies in the world – from entire fisheries, to aquaculture farms and feed processors. After four years of working together, change within the participating companies is accelerating. For example, Nissui, the world’s second-largest seafood company, has evaluated their entire production portfolio for <a href="https://s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/sustainability-cms-nissui-s3/pdf/en/2020_sustainability_full_en.pdf">sustainability challenges</a>.</p>
<p>Collaboration <a href="https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(20)30300-6?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS2590332220303006%3Fshowall%3Dtrue">between scientists and businesses</a> is vital to delivering commitments made by governments. Scientists can help define the problems, and business can develop, pilot and scale solutions. For instance, we’re developing software that can <a href="https://sustainabilityreport2019.nutreco.com/pdf/nutreco-sustainability-report-2019.pdf">automatically detect</a> which species of fish are caught on vessels, to radically improve the transparency of seafood production.</p>
<p>The ocean has been a source of inspiration, imagination and adventure since the beginning of time. It has fed us and generated livelihoods for billions. Politicians have stood serenely on the sidelines for some time now, content to be passive observers of deteriorating ecosystems. But the era of passive observation may finally be coming to an end.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151389/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henrik Österblom is a scientific collaborator with the SeaBOS initiative. This work is not funded by the companies involved, but through independent research grants. He has also provided scientific support to the work carried out by the High Level Panel, by producing scientific background papers on ocean equity and ocean transitions.</span></em></p>An international agreement has set an ambitious deadline for action on some of the biggest problems facing the world’s oceans.Henrik Österblom, Professor of Environmental Science, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1130522019-03-29T13:20:00Z2019-03-29T13:20:00ZFeeding farm animals seaweed could help fight antibiotic resistance and climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266530/original/file-20190329-70982-1czv13a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C7337%2C4912&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/forest-seaweed-1034470153">Divedog/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Demand for food is increasing rapidly – the <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html">global population is expected to reach 11.2 billion</a> by 2100. To keep up with the additional mouths to feed, intensive farming practices have maximised production, but often at the expense of the environment and human health.</p>
<p>Livestock is reared to maximise economic returns, which often means animals are kept in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/17/uk-has-nearly-800-livestock-mega-farms-investigation-reveals">close confinement</a> with each other, increasing the risk of disease. As a result, antibiotics are often used to treat animals destined for human consumption, but relying on them can <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/antibiotic-use/community/about/antibiotic-resistance-faqs.html">cause bacteria to develop resistance</a> in the long run. A recent review found 100 academic studies <a href="https://amr-review.org/sites/default/files/Antimicrobials%20in%20agriculture%20and%20the%20environment%20-%20Reducing%20unnecessary%20use%20and%20waste.pdf">on antimicrobial resistance</a> had detected a link between antibiotic consumption in animals and antimicrobial resistance in humans. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266533/original/file-20190329-71006-u7w8je.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266533/original/file-20190329-71006-u7w8je.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266533/original/file-20190329-71006-u7w8je.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266533/original/file-20190329-71006-u7w8je.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266533/original/file-20190329-71006-u7w8je.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266533/original/file-20190329-71006-u7w8je.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266533/original/file-20190329-71006-u7w8je.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rearing livestock in crowded farms can help diseases spread.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cows-farm-dairy-560358073">Ewa Studio/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This means that using antibiotics in animal rearing can cause resistant bacteria that may also affect humans down the food chain. <a href="http://www.fairr.org/news-item/eu-ban-antibiotics-hailed-victory-responsible-investors/">Antibiotics have been phased out of livestock rearing</a> in the EU and in their place zinc has been introduced into the diet of animals to help kill bacteria which cause Salmonella and E. coli.</p>
<p>High levels of zinc in the diets of pigs and cows can <a href="https://phys.org/news/2016-04-higher-zinc-cattle-efficiency.html">help them grow bigger</a> and kill E. coli, but it’s starting to become an environmental issue in its own right. Most of the zinc fed to the animals is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240565451730015X">excreted and washed into waterways and soils</a> where it can harm aquatic life and <a href="https://www.lenntech.com/periodic/elements/zn.htm">acidify the soil</a>. As a result, European legislation will <a href="https://www.fwi.co.uk/livestock/pigs/zinc-oxide-to-be-phased-out-in-pig-production-by-2022">phase out the use of zinc</a> by 2022.</p>
<p>This leaves the producers of livestock feed and farmers in a difficult position. New products are needed to prevent infection in livestock which don’t harm the environment or human health by contributing to antimicrobial resistance, but where could they come from?</p>
<h2>Let them eat seaweed</h2>
<p>Seaweed could be the answer. Brown seaweeds synthesise a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1878535213003377">unique class of compound called phlorotannins</a> as they grow. These compounds can kill bacteria that emerge among farm animals. How effectively these compounds can kill bacteria depends on the species of seaweed being used, with different species producing more potent bactericides.</p>
<p>The flock of North Ronaldsay sheep in Scotland have <a href="https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/seaweed-sheep-north-ronaldsay-orkney-festival">grazed on nothing but seaweed</a> for generations. Animals raised on such diets which are rich in Omega-3 fatty acids <a href="https://www.seaweedandco.com/seaweed-in-beef/">produce healthier – and arguably tastier – meat</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266531/original/file-20190329-71003-6bwizl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266531/original/file-20190329-71003-6bwizl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266531/original/file-20190329-71003-6bwizl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266531/original/file-20190329-71003-6bwizl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266531/original/file-20190329-71003-6bwizl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266531/original/file-20190329-71003-6bwizl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266531/original/file-20190329-71003-6bwizl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sheep grazes on brown seaweed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/seaweed-eating-sheep-654561931">Forge Photography/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Seaweed can be grown in the ocean and harvested from natural stocks in a rotational manner, <a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-algae-and-seaweed-on-the-menu-could-help-save-our-seafood-88980">ensuring natural habitats don’t have to be plundered</a> to supply livestock farmers. Seaweed farming also doesn’t have to compete for land space like traditional feed crops and could reduce pressure on agricultural land – allowing space for habitat restoration and rewilding <a href="https://theconversation.com/rewilding-is-essential-to-the-uks-commitments-on-climate-change-107541">which helps fight climate change</a>.</p>
<p>Seaweed farms in the ocean <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-farming-giant-seaweed-can-feed-fish-and-fix-the-climate-81761">draw in a lot of carbon dioxide</a> – which <a href="https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/seaweed-and-seagrass-buffer-the-acidity-of-the-nearby-ocean/">helps de-acidify the seawater</a> around them – and release oxygen. This improves the health of sea life nearby and helps organisms such as coral or sea snails to grow stronger exoskeletons of calcium carbonate.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266529/original/file-20190329-71016-1385hne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266529/original/file-20190329-71016-1385hne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266529/original/file-20190329-71016-1385hne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266529/original/file-20190329-71016-1385hne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266529/original/file-20190329-71016-1385hne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266529/original/file-20190329-71016-1385hne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266529/original/file-20190329-71016-1385hne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rows of seaweed growing on a farm in Jambiani, Zanzibar island, Tanzania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rows-seaweed-on-farm-jambiani-zanzibar-794705638">Ventura/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Modern farming uses <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/eutrophication.html">huge quantities of fertiliser</a> which run off the land and into rivers and the ocean. There, these nutrients stimulate algae which grow and multiply. When algal blooms die and decay, they’re decomposed by bacteria which absorb oxygen from the water, <a href="https://theconversation.com/coastal-dead-zones-on-the-rise-15496">creating vast dead zones</a> where fish and other aquatic life suffocate. Luckily, growing seaweed requires no fertiliser and only uses nutrients which already exist in seawater.</p>
<p>Global seaweed production rose from 10.5 to 28.4 million tonnes between 2000 and 2014, but <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/546679/FC002I__Cefas_Seaweed_industry_report_2016_Capuzzo_and_McKie.pdf">95% of this was in Asia</a>. There’s therefore huge growth potential for seaweed agriculture in the rest of the world. The brown seaweeds which produce the helpful antibacterial compounds are <a href="https://www.discoverwildlife.com/how-to/identify-wildlife/how-to-identify-seaweed/">widespread on temperate shores</a>, and by converting them into supplements for livestock feed, a vibrant industry that’s good for humans and the environment could flourish.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1113052">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113052/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Ford receives funding from Agri Food Quest Competence Centre funded by Invest Northern Ireland to research Algal Animal Feeds INI Agri-Food QUEST - 11-01-17-003 - AFQCC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pamela Judith Walsh receives funding from Agri Food Quest Competence Centre funded by Invest Northern Ireland to research Algal Animal Feeds (INI Agri-Food QUEST - 11-01-17-003 - AFQCC). </span></em></p>Feeding pigs seaweed could make them, us and the planet healthier without contributing to antibiotic resistance in bacteria.Lauren Ford, Research Fellow, Queen's University BelfastPamela Judith Walsh, Lecturer in Chemical Engineering, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/958752018-05-02T20:22:21Z2018-05-02T20:22:21Z$500 million for the Great Barrier Reef is welcome, but we need a sea change in tactics too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217181/original/file-20180502-153891-v767up.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The new funding is focused on measures that are already in the foreground.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Robert Linsdell/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government’s <a href="http://www.joshfrydenberg.com.au/guest/mediaReleasesDetails.aspx?id=563">announcement</a> of more than A$500 million in funding for the Great Barrier Reef is good news. It appears to show a significant commitment to the reef’s preservation – something that has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/60-million-to-save-the-great-barrier-reef-is-a-drop-in-the-ocean-but-we-have-to-try-90534">lacking</a> in recent years.</p>
<p>The new A$444 million package, which comes in the wake of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/60-million-to-save-the-great-barrier-reef-is-a-drop-in-the-ocean-but-we-have-to-try-90534">A$60 million previously announced in January</a>, includes:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>A$201 million to improve water quality by cutting fertiliser use and adopting new technologies and practices</p></li>
<li><p>A$100 million for research on coral resilience and adaptation</p></li>
<li><p>A$58 million to continue fighting crown-of-thorns starfish</p></li>
<li><p>A$45 million for community engagement, particularly among Traditional Owners</p></li>
<li><p>A$40 million to enhance monitoring and management on the GBR.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>A spokesperson for federal environment minister Josh Frydenberg said the funding would be available immediately to the <a href="https://www.barrierreef.org/">Great Barrier Reef Foundation</a>, and that there was no predetermined time frame for the spending.</p>
<p>But one concern with the package is that it seems to give greatest weight to the strategies that are already being tried – and which have so far fallen a long way short of success.</p>
<h2>Water quality</h2>
<p>The government has not yet announced the timelines for rollout of the program. But if we assume that the A$201 million is funding for the next two years, this matches the current rate of water quality management funding - A$100 million a year, which has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-election-is-our-last-chance-to-save-the-great-barrier-reef-59381">in place since 2008</a>. </p>
<p>Yet it is already clear that this existing funding is not reducing pollution loads on the GBR by the required extent. The federal and Queensland governments’ own annual report cards for <a href="https://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/measuring-success/report-cards/2015/link">2015</a> and <a href="https://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/measuring-success/report-cards/2016/">2016</a> reveal limited success in improving water quality. It is also known from joint Australian and Queensland government analyses that the required funding to meet water quality targets is of the order of <a href="http://www.alluvium.com.au/Blog/June-2016-(1)/Costing-water-quality-management-for-the-Great-Bar.aspx">A$1 billion per year over the next 10 years</a>.</p>
<p>In the region’s main industries, such as sugarcane cultivation and beef grazing, most land is still managed using methods that are well below best practice for water quality, such as fertiliser rates of application in sugarcane cultivation. According to the <a href="https://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/assets/2017-scientific-consensus-statement-summary-chap05.pdf">2017 Scientific Consensus Statement</a> on the GBR’s water quality, very limited progress has been made so far.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217166/original/file-20180502-153888-1ltfbl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217166/original/file-20180502-153888-1ltfbl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217166/original/file-20180502-153888-1ltfbl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217166/original/file-20180502-153888-1ltfbl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217166/original/file-20180502-153888-1ltfbl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217166/original/file-20180502-153888-1ltfbl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217166/original/file-20180502-153888-1ltfbl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217166/original/file-20180502-153888-1ltfbl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Progress towards targets and assigned scores in the 2015 Great Barrier Reef Report Card.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/assets/2017-scientific-consensus-statement-summary-chap04.pdf">2017 Scientific Consensus Statement</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The respective <a href="https://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/targets/">load reduction targets</a> set for 2018 and 2025 are highly unlikely to be met at current funding levels. For example, shown below are the current projections for levels of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217169/original/file-20180502-153869-ya23g8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217169/original/file-20180502-153869-ya23g8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217169/original/file-20180502-153869-ya23g8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217169/original/file-20180502-153869-ya23g8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217169/original/file-20180502-153869-ya23g8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217169/original/file-20180502-153869-ya23g8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217169/original/file-20180502-153869-ya23g8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217169/original/file-20180502-153869-ya23g8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Progress on reducing total GBR wide dissolved inorganic nitrogen loads and trajectories towards targets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CREDIT</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This likely failure to meet any of the targets was noted by UNESCO in <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/decisions/6216">2015</a> and again in <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/decisions/7027">2017</a> as a major concern, amid deliberations on whether to put the GBR on the <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/danger/">World Heritage in Danger list</a>. The UNESCO report criticised Australia’s lack of progress towards achieving its 2050 water quality targets and failure to pass land clearing legislation.</p>
<p>As the <a href="https://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/reef-science/scientific-consensus-statement/">2017 Scientific Consensus Statement</a> also pointed out, improvements to land management oversight are “urgently needed”. Continued government spending on the same programs, at the same levels, and with no federal legislation to mandate improvements, is unlikely to bring water pollution to acceptable levels or offer significant protection to the GBR.</p>
<p>In contrast to the federal government, the Queensland government is taking what are likely to be more effective measures to manage water quality. These include regulations such as the revised <a href="https://dnrme.qld.gov.au/land-water/initiatives/vegetation-management-laws">Vegetation Management Act</a>, which is likely to be passed by the parliament in the next few weeks; and the updated <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/agriculture/sustainable-farming/reef-regulations">Reef Protection Act</a>, currently out for review. Queensland is also directing funds towards pollution hotspots under the <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/agriculture/sustainable-farming/reef-major-projects">Major Integrated Projects framework</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cloudy-issue-we-need-to-fix-the-barrier-reefs-murky-waters-39380">Cloudy issue: we need to fix the Barrier Reef's murky waters</a>
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<h2>Crown-of-thorns starfish</h2>
<p>The government’s new package has pledged A$58 million for further culling of this coral-eating animal. Yet the current culling program has faced <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/serious-case-of-negligence-scientists-blast-controls-on-coraleating-starfish-20180117-h0jpfo.html">serious criticism</a> over its effectiveness.</p>
<p>Udo Engelhardt, director of consultancy Reefcare International, and a pioneer in the control of crown-of-thorns starfish, has claimed that his analysis of the culling carried out in 2013-15 in reef areas off Cairns and to the south of Cairns, reveals a “widespread and consistent failure” to protect coral cover.</p>
<p>Nor does there seem to have been a major independent review of the program since these findings came to light. Without one, it seems a shaky bet to assume that we will expect any more success simply by continuing to fund it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217189/original/file-20180502-153878-1yep9h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217189/original/file-20180502-153878-1yep9h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217189/original/file-20180502-153878-1yep9h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217189/original/file-20180502-153878-1yep9h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217189/original/file-20180502-153878-1yep9h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217189/original/file-20180502-153878-1yep9h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217189/original/file-20180502-153878-1yep9h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217189/original/file-20180502-153878-1yep9h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Overcoming crown-of-thorns starfish might take some more creative thinking.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Crown-of-thorns_starfish_Acanthaster_planci_(7504786886).jpg">Paul Asman/Jill Lenoble/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reef restoration</h2>
<p>Similar question marks hover over the A$100 million being provided to harness the best science to help restore and protect the reef, and to study the most resilient corals. Like other aspects of the package, the government has not yet promised a timeline on which to roll out the funds.</p>
<p>While reef restoration may be significant for the long-term (decades to centuries) status of the GBR, it is hard to believe that these studies will help within the coming few decades. And even long-term success will hinge either on our ability to stabilise the climate, or on science’s ability to keep pace with the rate of future change.</p>
<p>In the meantime, reef restoration seems at best to be a band-aid that could preserve select tourism sites, but is inconceivable on the scale of the entire GBR.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-out-of-hot-water-yet-what-the-world-thinks-about-the-great-barrier-reef-42945">Not out of hot water yet: what the world thinks about the Great Barrier Reef</a>
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<p>Herein lies the most significant criticism of the new funding package. It avoids any mention of reducing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, or of working closely with the international community to help deliver significant global reductions. Yet climate change is <a href="https://theconversation.com/coal-and-climate-change-a-death-sentence-for-the-great-barrier-reef-39252">routinely described as the biggest threat to the reef</a>.</p>
<p>The new announcement dodges that issue, while providing a moderate amount of funding for the continuation of largely unsuccessful programs. Given that the new funding is to be managed by the <a href="https://www.barrierreef.org/">Great Barrier Reef Foundation</a> – which is a charity rather than a statutory management body – we can only hope that the foundation finds new and innovative ways to improve greatly on the current efforts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95875/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Brodie currently receives funding from the Australian Government through the NESP, from the Queensland Government through various project funding, and small grants from the United Nations and WWF. </span></em></p>The federal government’s new $500 million funding package for the Great Barrier Reef seems predominantly focused on the tactics that are already being tried, without much success.Jon Brodie, Professorial Fellow, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/832332017-09-01T05:27:55Z2017-09-01T05:27:55ZThe new Great Barrier Reef pollution plan is better, but still not good enough<p>The draft <a href="http://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/assets/reef-2050-water-quality-improvement-plan-2017-draft.pdf">water quality improvement plan</a>, released by the federal and Queensland governments this week, aims to reduce the pollution flowing from water catchments to the Great Barrier Reef over the next five years. </p>
<p>It is part of the overarching <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/marine/gbr/long-term-sustainability-plan">Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan</a> to protect and manage the reef until mid-century. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/cloudy-issue-we-need-to-fix-the-barrier-reefs-murky-waters-39380">Water quality</a> is one of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/great-barrier-reef-threats-series-17189">biggest threats to the reef’s health</a>, but the new guidelines still fall short of what’s required, given the available scientific evidence. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cloudy-issue-we-need-to-fix-the-barrier-reefs-murky-waters-39380">Cloudy issue: we need to fix the Barrier Reef's murky waters</a>
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<p>The draft plan, which is open for comment until October, presents several important and commendable advances in the management of water quality on the Great Barrier Reef. It addresses all land-based sources of water pollution (agricultural, urban, public lands and industrial) and includes social, cultural and economic values for the first time. </p>
<p>The principal sources of pollution are nitrogen loss from fertiliser use on sugar cane lands, fine sediment loss from erosion on grazing lands, and pesticide losses from cropping lands. These are all major risk factors for the Great Barrier Reef. </p>
<p>The draft plan also presents updated water quality targets that call for reductions in run-off nutrients and fine sediments by 2025. Each of the 35 catchments that feeds onto the reef has <a href="http://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/catchment-targets/">its own individual set of targets</a>, thus helping to prioritise pollution-reduction measures across a region almost as large as Sweden. </p>
<h2>The reef’s still suffering</h2>
<p>The Great Barrier Reef suffered coral <a href="https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v543/n7645/full/nature21707.html">bleaching</a> and <a href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/about-the-reef/reef-health">death</a> over vast areas in 2016, and again this year. The <a href="http://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/scientific-consensus-statement/">2017 Scientific Consensus Statement</a>, released with the draft water quality plan (and on which one of us, Jon Brodie, was an author), reports:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Key Great Barrier Reef ecosystems continue to be in poor condition. This is largely due to the collective impact of land run-off associated with past and ongoing catchment development, coastal development activities, extreme weather events and climate change impacts such as the 2016 and 2017 coral bleaching events.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Stronger action on the local and regional causes of coral death are seen to be <a href="https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v546/n7656/full/nature22901.html">essential for recovery</a> at locations where poor water quality is a major cause of reef decline. These areas include mid-shelf reefs in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ecocheck-australias-wet-tropics-are-worth-billions-if-we-can-keep-out-the-invading-ants-56815">Wet Tropics region</a> damaged by crown of thorns starfish, and inner-shelf reefs where turbid waters stop light reaching coral and seagrass. Human-driven threats, especially land-based pollution, must be effectively managed to reduce the impacts on the Great Barrier Reef.</p>
<p>But although the draft plan provides improved targets and a framework for reducing land-based pollution, it still doesn’t reflect the severity of the situation. The 2017 Scientific Consensus Statement reports that “current initiatives will not meet the water quality targets” by 2025. </p>
<p>This is because the draft plan does not provide any major new funding, legislation or other initiatives to drive down land-based pollution any further. As the statement explains:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>To accelerate the change in on-ground management, improvements to governance, program design, delivery and evaluation systems are urgently needed. This will require greater incorporation of social and economic factors, better targeting and prioritisation, exploration of alternative management options and increased support and resources.</p>
</blockquote>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-barrier-reefs-safety-net-is-becoming-more-complex-but-less-effective-75053">The Great Barrier Reef's safety net is becoming more complex but less effective</a>
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<p>The draft plan calls on farmers to go “beyond minimum standards” for practices such as fertiliser use in sugar cane, and minimum pasture cover in cattle grazing lands. But even the minimum standards are unlikely to be widely adopted unless governments implement existing legislation to enforce the current standards.</p>
<p>The draft plan is also silent on the impact of <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-better-policy-to-end-the-alarming-increase-in-land-clearing-63507">land clearing</a> on water quality, and the conversion of grazing land to intensively farmed crops such as sugar cane, as proposed in the <a href="http://northernaustralia.gov.au/files/files/NAWP-FullReport.pdf">White Paper on Developing Northern Australia</a>.</p>
<p>The federal and Queensland governments have committed A$2 billion over ten years to protect the Great Barrier Reef. Under the draft plan, about half of this (A$100 million a year) will be spent on water quality management. This is not an increase in resourcing, but rather the same level of funding that has been provided for the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771416301469">past seven years</a>.</p>
<h2>More than loose change</h2>
<p>There is a very strong business case for major increases in funding to protect the Great Barrier Reef. Even with conservative assumptions, the economics firm Jacobs has estimated that protecting the industries that depend on the reef will require <a href="https://www.qff.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Jacobs-report-15-12-16.pdf">A$830 million in annual funding</a> – more than four times the current level. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-economic-value-of-the-great-barrier-reef-its-priceless-80061">What's the economic value of the Great Barrier Reef? It's priceless</a>
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<p>The draft water quality plan acknowledges the need for a “step change” in reef management, and to “accelerate our collective efforts to improve the land use practices of everyone living and working in the catchments adjacent to the Reef”. </p>
<p>This need is echoed in many other reports, both government and scientific. For example, the <a href="http://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/scientific-consensus-statement/">2017 Scientific Consensus Statement</a> makes several wide-ranging recommendations.</p>
<p>One of them is to make better use of <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13262/abstract">existing legislation and policies</a>, including <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771416301469">both voluntary and regulatory approaches</a>, to improve water quality standards. </p>
<p>This recommendation applies to both Commonwealth and <a href="https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/LEGISLTN/ACTS/2009/09AC042.pdf">Queensland</a> laws. These include the federal <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2016C00551">Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Act 1975</a>, which restricts or bans any activities that “may pollute water in a manner harmful to animals and plants in the Marine Park”, and the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/epbc">Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999</a>, which prohibits any action, inside or outside the marine park, that affects the Great Barrier Reef’s World Heritage values.</p>
<p>Another recommendation is to rethink existing land-use plans. For instance, even the best practice in sugar cane farming is <a href="https://terrain.org.au/projects/water-quality-improvement-plan/">inconsistent with the nitrogen fertiliser run-off limits</a> needed to meet <a href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/managing-the-reef/how-the-reefs-managed/water-quality-in-the-great-barrier-reef/water-quality-guidelines-for-the-great-barrier-reef">water quality guidelines</a>. One option is to shift to less intensive land uses such as grazing in the Wet Tropics region – a <a href="http://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/assets/2017-scientific-consensus-statement-summary-chap03.pdf">priority area</a> for nitrate fertiliser management because of its link to <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/9/1/17">crown of thorns starfish outbreaks</a>. This option is being explored in a <a href="http://nesptropical.edu.au/index.php/round-2-projects/project-2-1-2/">NESP project</a>. </p>
<p>These changes would require significantly increased funding to support catchment and coastal management and to meet the draft plan’s <a href="http://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/catchment-targets/">targets</a>. Government commitment to this level of management is essential to support the resilience of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Brodie receives funding from the Australian Government; Queensland Government; UNEP; the Bay of Plenty Regional Council, NZ; Melbourne Water; NSW EPA. He was also an author of the 2017 Scientific Consensus Statement: Land Use Impacts on Great Barrier Reef Water Quality and Ecosystem Condition.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurence McCook is a Partner Investigator in the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alana Grech does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The updated plan for improving water quality on the Great Barrier Reef still doesn’t address the need to curb intensively farmed crops such as sugar cane, and to enforce existing environmental laws.Jon Brodie, Professorial Fellow, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook UniversityAlana Grech, Assistant Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook UniversityLaurence McCook, Adjunct Principal Research Fellow, Partner Investigator, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/609302016-06-15T20:10:22Z2016-06-15T20:10:22ZCould ‘nitrogen trading’ help the Great Barrier Reef?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126669/original/image-20160615-22404-19ouodq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A market that lets sugar cane farmers trade 'nitrogen permits' could help keep a cap on fertiliser use.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">iStock</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Among the increasing sums of money being pledged to help save the Great Barrier Reef is a federal government pledge to spend <a href="http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/coalition-to-deliver-1-billion-boost-to-protect-great-barrier-reef">A$40 million</a> on improving water quality. The Queensland government has promised another <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2016/5/25/reef-water-science-taskforce-report-guides-90m-investment">A$33.5 million</a> for the same purpose. </p>
<p>One of the biggest water-quality concerns is <a href="http://www.gbr.qld.gov.au/taskforce/">nitrogen runoff</a> from fertiliser use. It is a concern all along the reef coast, and particularly in the sugar-cane regions of the Wet Tropics and the Burdekin. The government’s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/marine/gbr/long-term-sustainability-plan">Reef 2050 Long Term Sustainability Plan</a> calls for an 80% reduction in dissolved inorganic nitrogen flowing out onto the reef by 2025. </p>
<p>Our recent <a href="http://nesptropical.edu.au/index.php/round-1-projects/project-2-2/">research</a> suggests that “nitrogen trading” might be worth considering as a flexible economic mechanism to help farmers deliver these much-needed reductions in fertiliser use.</p>
<h2>What is nitrogen trading?</h2>
<p>You probably already know about <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/emissions-trading-scheme">carbon trading</a>, which allows polluters to buy the right to emit greenhouse gases from those with spare carbon credits. Nitrogen trading would work in a similar way, but for fertiliser use.</p>
<p>A nitrogen market could offer a flexible way of encouraging farmers to use fertiliser more efficiently, as well as rewarding innovations in farming practice. It could be a useful addition to existing fertiliser-reduction schemes such as the industry-led <a href="https://www.smartcane.com.au/LatestNews/LatestNews.aspx">Smart Cane Best Management Practice</a>. These are making headway but <a href="http://www.gbr.qld.gov.au/documents/gbrwst-interim-report-highres.pdf">evidently not enough</a>.</p>
<p>A nitrogen market isn’t going to happen tomorrow, but it could be part of <a href="http://www.gbr.qld.gov.au/documents/gbrwst-finalreport-2016.pdf">a future in which an annual limit</a> (called a cap) is set on the total amount of nitrogen flowing out from river catchments to the reef. </p>
<p>One way to enforce this cap would be to set a limit on fertiliser applications per hectare. Cane farmers would have to manage the best they could with that fixed amount of nitrogen.</p>
<p>But nitrogen trading would offer more flexibility, while still staying under the same total nitrogen cap. Instead of a fixed limit, farmers would receive a certain number of “nitrogen permits” per hectare of cane. Then, if they wanted or needed to, they could buy or sell these permits through a centralised online “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_market">smart market</a>”.</p>
<h2>How would it work?</h2>
<p>Imagine you’re a farmer with a property that sits on good soil. The amount of fertiliser you can apply to your crop must match the number of nitrogen permits you hold. But you know that, on your good land, you would get more profits if you could apply more fertiliser. </p>
<p>To do this you would have to buy extra permits through the nitrogen market. These extra permits would be worth buying as long as they deliver more than enough extra profit to cover the cost.</p>
<p>The total number of permits is limited by the cap – so buyers can only buy extra permits if other farmers are selling them. So who’s selling?</p>
<p>Putting fertiliser onto a field with poor soil won’t increase your profits as much, because a lot of that fertiliser will just run off before the crop can use it. On a bad paddock, nitrogen permits aren’t worth much in terms of extra crop yield, so you might make more money by just selling them to other farmers with good paddocks. That is why trading happens.</p>
<p>The overall effect of this trading would be to switch a significant amount of nitrogen fertiliser away from less profitable, leaky soils, and onto more profitable, less leaky land. As a result, the total nitrogen cap would be distributed more efficiently across the farming landscape. </p>
<p>For individual farmers, the reward for low-nitrogen farming practice is the opportunity to sell unused permits at a profit. This incentive will help to drive ongoing improvement and innovation. </p>
<p><a href="http://nesptropical.edu.au/index.php/round-1-projects/project-2-2/">Our simulations</a> suggest that overall sugar cane profits and production would be higher with trading than they would under a fixed per-hectare nitrogen limit – with the same overall cap on the amount of nitrogen hitting the Great Barrier Reef.</p>
<h2>Opportunity for the future?</h2>
<p>Will it just mean more expensive regulation, green tape and hassle for farmers? Farmers are already signing up to calculate and <a href="https://www.smartcane.com.au/LatestNews/LatestNews.aspx">record actual fertiliser applications paddock by paddock</a> under the <a href="http://www.sugarresearch.com.au/icms_docs/158108_Six_Easy_Steps_nutrient_management_completed.pdf">Six Easy Steps</a> nutrient management program. </p>
<p>If we’re in a future where the government is monitoring and managing a fixed nitrogen cap anyway, then not much extra work is needed to set up an online trading market.</p>
<p>So could nitrogen trading help the Great Barrier Reef? Maybe. There’s more thinking still to be done, but nitrogen trading schemes are already operating in <a href="http://www.waikatoregion.govt.nz/Community/Your-community/For-Farmers/Taupo/Nitrogen-management-in-the-Lake-Taupo-catchment/">New Zealand</a> and the <a href="http://www.mdnutrienttrading.com/">United States</a>. </p>
<p>A firm overall limit on fertiliser use seems to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/cloudy-issue-we-need-to-fix-the-barrier-reefs-murky-waters-39380">essential for the reef’s survival</a>. The incentives provided by a nitrogen market could give Queensland’s farmers the flexibility they need to thrive in this nitrogen-constrained future.</p>
<p><em>Graeme Curwen and
Michele Burford of the <a href="https://www.griffith.edu.au/environment-planning-architecture/australian-rivers-institute">Australian Rivers Institute</a> at Griffith University contributed to the research on which this article is based.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Smart receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Tropical Water Quality Hub and Seqwater.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Volders receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Tropical Water Quality Hub. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Fleming receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Tropical Water Quality Hub, the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, the Australian Government Department of the Environment and the Worldwide Wildlife Fund.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Syezlin Hasan receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Tropical Water Quality Hub.</span></em></p>You’ve heard of cap-and-trade schemes for greenhouse gases. Perhaps we also need one to limit the amount of fertiliser runoff onto the Great Barrier Reef.Jim Smart, Senior Lecturer, Griffith School of Environment, Griffith UniversityAdrian Volders, Adjunct Professor, Griffith UniversityChris Fleming, Associate Professor, Griffith UniversitySyezlin Hasan, Research Assistant, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/528612016-04-03T02:27:21Z2016-04-03T02:27:21ZGreat Barrier Reef pollution controls are not enough: here’s what we can do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/116856/original/image-20160331-28451-1skq4u2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=687%2C0%2C3896%2C3524&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish, which eat coral, have been linked to poor water quality</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Starfish image from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Current efforts to protect the Great Barrier Reef from land-based pollution are unlikely to be enough, according to our <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13262/full">scientific review published in Global Change Biology</a>.</p>
<p>Poor water quality – along with climate change, fishing, coastal development – is one of the <a href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/managing-the-reef/great-barrier-reef-outlook-report">major threats to the reef</a>. Due to the cumulative impacts of these threats, the <a href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/managing-the-reef/great-barrier-reef-outlook-report">condition of the Great Barrier Reef has deteriorated over past decades</a>. </p>
<p>This is despite its protection under federal law, its global recognition as a <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/154">World Heritage site</a>, and the ongoing efforts and investment by the Queensland and Australian governments and many other sectors of the community, including landholders. In 2014, the UN threatened to list the reef as “in danger”, but efforts by the Australian and Queensland governments managed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-barrier-reef-is-not-listed-as-in-danger-but-the-threats-remain-42548">avoid this</a>. </p>
<p>Poor water quality is driven by material washed off the land. So we looked for examples in Australia and overseas that could help improve the reef’s situation. </p>
<h2>Muddy waters</h2>
<p>The Great Barrier Reef is the <a href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/about-the-reef">world’s largest coral reef system</a>, extending more than 2,000 km along the northeast coast of Australia. It includes 20,000 square km of coral reefs, around 43,000 square km of seagrass meadows, and extensive mangrove forests. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/sustainability/publications/economic-contribution-great-barrier-reef-march-2013">reef currently contributes about A$5.6 billion to the Australian economy</a>. This includes tourism (A$5.2 billion), commercial fishing (A$160 million) and recreational use (A$244 million), and supports around 69,000 full-time jobs.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/scientific-consensus-statement/">Poor water quality</a> has come about largely from excess sediment, nitrogen and pesticides flowing from the land into the reef’s lagoon. This has a significant impact on reef health. </p>
<p>Fine sediments from soil erosion reduce availability of light for corals and seagrasses to grow. Nitrogen discharge from fertilised land and from erosion promotes the growth of various types of algae, some of which compete with corals. Other algae are associated with outbreaks of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/crown-of-thorns-is-a-symptom-of-reef-decline-lets-address-the-cause-9932">coral-eating Crown-of-thorns starfish</a>. </p>
<p>Herbicides can reduce the productivity of seagrass, which ultimately affects the dugongs and turtles that feed on seagrass.</p>
<h2>Reducing runoff</h2>
<p>To protect the Great Barrier Reef from land-based pollution, the Queensland and Australian governments jointly released the <a href="http://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/about/">Reef Water Quality Protection Plan</a> in 2003, with updates since. The 2013 update set water quality targets for reductions in river loads of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (50%), sediment (20%) and pesticides (60%) by 2018.</p>
<p>The plan focuses on voluntary plans for farmers, known as best practice management. After more than ten years of dedicated effort and substantial investment to improve reef water quality, <a href="http://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/measuring-success/report-cards/2014/">the 2014 report card shows only modest changes in agricultural management practices</a>. Indeed, while some progress has been made made, previous 2013 targets were not met and current 2018 targets are unlikely to be met.</p>
<p>Recent economic analyses indicate that <a href="http://www.gbr.qld.gov.au/taskforce/interim-report/">progress towards the 2018 targets can be accelerated</a> by, for example, focusing investment in areas that can deliver the greatest improvement in water quality at the least cost.</p>
<p>Even so, <a href="http://www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/measuring-success/paddock-to-reef/catchment-loads/">recent studies</a> show that even if all farmers adopted best practice under current land uses, the 2018 sediment and nitrogen targets are still unlikely to be met.</p>
<p>We need to look at other options to improve water quality and protect the Great Barrier Reef. This has become even more critical in the face of more stringent water quality targets stated in the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/marine/gbr/long-term-sustainability-plan">Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan</a>. This plan, released by the Queensland and Australian governments in 2015, was part of a response to the UN’s request to show how Australia would protect the reef over coming decades.</p>
<h2>Looking overseas for solutions</h2>
<p>The situation in the Great Barrier Reef is not unique and there are <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X14003646">international examples of how to reduce sediment and nitrogen runoff</a>. These case studies show measurable reductions in sediment and nutrient levels at river mouths, and declines in nutrient concentrations and amounts of algae in the marine environment. </p>
<p>These approaches centre around two mechanisms: first, identifying the management practices and/or land uses that have low pollutant runoff; and second, establishing effective incentives and regulation for their adoption. They also need long-term political commitment. </p>
<p>In the case of the Great Barrier Reef, several studies have emphasised <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/marine/gbr/publications/independent-review">the lack of effective law and regulation of agricultural land uses and management</a>. Effective regulation has the potential to provide the stick that will support other voluntary and incentive-based approaches.</p>
<p>More broadly, our review identifies the opportunity to more completely harmonise federal and Queensland <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/marine/gbr/long-term-sustainability-plan">policies, regulations and laws that affect the reef’s water quality</a>, and to better align land-based pollution and water quality initiatives.</p>
<p>Experience both globally and in the Great Barrier Reef suggests that even with continued improvements to best practice farming systems, some land use will need to change to protect the reef’s ecosystems. This could include realising the value of other products, such as carbon derived from current agricultural lands, or replacing crops that need large amounts of fertiliser such as sugarcane with other crops that need less, such as grains and cereals. </p>
<p>Finally, retirement of high-risk agricultural land has been used as <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003WR002753/abstract;jsessionid=D7776D8BA5D21F3FAB4FA76BA07F79F4.f02t02">a tool for reducing land-based pollution</a> and can be a cost-effective measure to improve water quality. </p>
<p>These options presented in our paper are intended to support the ongoing discussion on managing land-based pollution to protect the Great Barrier Reef from poor water quality. </p>
<p>Only by looking at a large range of additional solutions will we be able to achieve the water quality targets stated in the Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52861/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frederieke Kroon has received funding from the Australian and Queensland Governments for her research on GBR issues. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Britta Schaffelke receives funding from the Australian Government for her research on GBR issues. </span></em></p>To fix pollution on the Great Barrier Reef, some farming practices will have to change.Frederieke Kroon, Principal research scientist, Australian Institute of Marine ScienceBritta Schaffelke, Research Program Leader - A Healthy and Sustainable Great Barrier Reef, Australian Institute of Marine ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/548822016-02-21T19:04:05Z2016-02-21T19:04:05ZQueensland land clearing is undermining Australia’s environmental progress<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112086/original/image-20160219-21502-1qvber8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Land clearing rates in Queensland tripled since 2010. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Martin Taylor</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Land clearing has returned to Queensland in a big way. After we expressed concern that policy changes since 2012 would lead to <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-clearing-in-queensland-triples-after-policy-ping-pong-38279">a resurgence in clearing of native vegetation</a>, this outcome was confirmed by <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/land/vegetation/mapping/slats-reports/index.html#slats-most-recent-reports">government figures</a> released late last year. </p>
<p>It is now clear that land clearing is accelerating in Queensland. The new data confirm that 296,000 hectares of bushland was cleared in 2013-14 – three times as much as in 2008-09 – mainly for conversion to pastures. These losses do not include the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-16/land-clearing-soars-in-queensland-leaked-figures-show/6550622">well-publicised clearing</a> permitted by the government of nearly 900 square kilometres at two properties, Olive Vale and Strathmore, which commenced in 2015. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112080/original/image-20160219-1283-eg2fhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map showing the amount of habitat for threatened species cleared between 2012 and 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">WWF</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Alarmingly, the data show that clearing in catchments that drain onto the Great Barrier Reef increased dramatically, and constituted 35% of total clearing across Queensland in 2013-14. The loss of native vegetation cover in such regions is one of the major drivers of the <a href="http://coralreefs.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/ISRS-Briefing-Paper-3-Water-Quality.pdf">deteriorating water quality</a> in the reef’s lagoon, which threatens seagrass, coral reefs, and other marine ecosystems. </p>
<p>The increases in land clearing are across the board. They include losses of over 100,000 hectares of old-growth habitats, as well as the destruction of “high-value regrowth” – the advanced regeneration of endangered ecosystems.</p>
<p>These ecosystems have already been reduced to less than 10% of their original extent, and their recovery relies on allowing this regrowth to mature.</p>
<p>Alarmingly, our analysis of where the recent clearing has occurred reveals that even “of concern” and “endangered” remnant ecosystems are being lost at much higher rates now than before. </p>
<p>While this level of vegetation loss and damage continues apace, Australia’s environmental programs will fall well short of achieving their aims.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112045/original/image-20160219-1233-ch1h82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nutrient and sediment runoff, exacerbated by land clearing, is one of the major ongoing threats to the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Great Barrier Reef image from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Neutralising our environmental programs</h2>
<p>Land clearing affects all Australians, not just Queenslanders. Australia spends hundreds of millions of dollars each year trying to redress past environmental damage from land clearing. Tens of thousands of volunteers dedicate their time, money and land to the effort. </p>
<p>But despite undeniable local benefits of such programs, their contribution to national environmental goals is undone, sometimes many times over, by the damage being done in Queensland.</p>
<p>Take the federal government’s <a href="http://www.nrm.gov.au/national/20-million-trees">20 million trees program</a>. At a cost of A$50 million, it aims to replace 20 million trees by 2020 to redress some of the damage from past land clearing. </p>
<p>Yet just one year of increased land clearing in Queensland has already removed many more trees than will be painstakingly planted during the entire program.</p>
<p>The Australian government’s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund">Emissions Reduction Fund</a> (ERF) is paying billions of dollars to reduce carbon emissions from industry. But the carbon released from Queensland’s land clearing in 2012-2014 alone is estimated at 63 million tonnes, far more than was purchased under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-emissions-reduction-auction-results-at-a-glance-40728">first round of the ERF</a> (at a cost to taxpayers of A$660 million).</p>
<p>Species cannot recover if their habitat is being destroyed faster than it is being restored. But under <a href="http://www.nrm.gov.au/news-and-resources/resources/previous-programmes">Caring for our Country</a> and <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/cleanenergyfuture/biodiversity-fund/">Biodiversity Fund</a> grants, the extent of tree planting to restore habitat across Australia <a href="https://fieldcapture.ala.org.au/home/projectExplorer">reported</a> since 2013 is just over 42,000 hectares - an order of magnitude less than what was cleared in Queensland alone in just two years.</p>
<p>And it will be many decades before these new plantings will provide anything like the environmental benefits of mature native vegetation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112040/original/image-20160218-1240-18liuv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Glossy black-cockatoos are one of the species threatened by Queensland land clearing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kookr/7885802968/in/photolist-d1QNu9-tCUBhF-pG5d37-C9mh3g-BPoXqM-xv3Um-pEBNo1-7RAJhf-paK37z-dMGY9e-nrV7pR-67ecZn-kR76on-9Q7XZi-pEMkeA-5XEsUG-5UJqbu-BCJohV-d1QNK7-y9z8yW-9zE6TB-9HJ4he-9HLUkd-5TnqzL-yyrwb8-7RAK6N-7RAKEL-jc1dHm-uBHRVa-dV8P7D-qm3X1Z-pcfhnD-3GCozP-bv2Cky-9HJ3ZB-dVeogN-5UE8YB-9zE8DT-5UE94c-52KaiK-uyYTsd-jwKumn-9zH1fm-5WYrzE-mTDWaY-4pEBoE-4pEBZm-H4kQy-7RxvEB-64aKEZ">David Cook/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Land clearing between 2012 and 2014 in Queensland is estimated to have wiped out <a href="http://www.wwf.org.au/?15660/More-than-40000-hectares-of-koala-habitat-cleared">more than 40,000 hectares</a> of koala habitat, as well as habitat for over 200 other threatened species. Clearing, along with drought (which is also <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL031524/full">made worse</a> by clearing), is the major cause of <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320715301130">an 50% decline in koalas of south-west and central Queensland since 1996</a>.</p>
<p>The loss of remnant habitat, especially from forests along waterways, means more habitat fragmentation. This is a further threat to many species of wildlife, and it <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-best-way-to-protect-us-from-climate-change-save-our-ecosystems-54110">hampers our ability to adapt</a> to a rapidly changing climate. </p>
<p>The federal government has committed hundreds of millions of dollars to <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/marine/gbr/publications/factsheet-reef-trust-science-evidence-base">improve reef water quality</a>. Yet ongoing land clearing in reef-draining catchments will reverse many of the gains these programs aim to achieve. Last year, Queensland’s <a href="https://www.qao.qld.gov.au/report-20:-2014-15">Auditor-General reported</a> that stronger legislation would be essential to reducing harmful catchment runoff to the Great Barrier Reef.</p>
<h2>Prevention is better than cure</h2>
<p>We live in an era of tightening carbon budgets, declining land-production capacity and rapidly deteriorating biodiversity, including in iconic places such as Great Barrier Reef. The evidence is clear that we cannot continue to degrade our environment without severe consequences.</p>
<p>It is far more efficient to prevent environmental damage than to try to reverse it later. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112043/original/image-20160218-1274-14jc2du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Koalas have declined 50% in Queensland over the past 15-20 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mikex/1383104344/in/photolist-37dLJC-nGYKLg-AhRFva-cGGD8E-cGGEcy-4mCmme-7QdPLC-AhRBGD-eFFCkZ-fib6eY-AUfkQo-7KjnbH-29wHBa-29wLG8-9rPvN-nRuP6r-nziXAu-nzick3-BfLKWX-jLaTD-duKh4z-ausHya-bqDXHb-ib19J-jq3y3-fsPLLr-fsRon9-a3Gae-fsPLPD-fsZ6M7-ft4PGL-ft4PMW-fsZ6KC-ft4PDw-fsZ6Dq-ft4PKo-fsZ6GA-fsPLHn-fsZ6Jf-ft4PyS-ft4PRb-fsZ6EA-bqDSfJ-bDyLJ8-8J9fKM-k8bc1P-CNtjfK-5gGq3q-BQc2PK-Cksj9m">Mike Locke/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, the cost of stabilising river-banks following deforestation can range from <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP15849">A$16,000 to A$5 million per kilometre</a>. Natural ecosystems <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014000685">contribute enormously</a> to the economy in ways that are often unrecognised. </p>
<p>We are running up a large environmental debt that will eventually have to be paid by all Australians, one way or another.</p>
<p>And some damage, like the loss of a species, is irreversible.</p>
<p>Previous native vegetation laws had <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-clearing-in-queensland-triples-after-policy-ping-pong-38279">successfully reduced land clearing</a>, but were reversed in 2013 by the former Newman government. </p>
<p>The current Palaszczuk government in Queensland has <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queenslands-controversial-land-clearing-laws-to-be-overturned-20151128-gladle.html">repeated its election promise</a> to re-strengthen native vegetation protections. The amendment bill is due to be introduced to parliament within weeks. </p>
<p>But the minority government <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/parties-face-realities-of-hung-queensland-parliament-20150310-140hmu.html">relies on the votes of cross-benchers</a> to pass its legislation–so for now, the future of some of Australia’s most precious environmental assets remains uncertain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54882/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martine Maron receives funding from the Australian Research Council, New South Wales Environment Trust, and the National Environmental Science Program. She is a director of BirdLife Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Laurance receives funding from the Australian Research Council and other scientific and philanthropic organisations. He is the director of the Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science at James Cook University and founder and director of ALERT--the Alliance of Leading Environmental Researchers & Thinkers. He is presently on academic study leave at the European Community's Joint Research Centre in Italy.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bob Pressey receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. He is a scientific advisor to WWF-Australia and member of the North Queensland Conservation Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carla P. Catterall receives funding from the Australian Research Council and other nonprofit sources. Her research group investigates how changes to land and forest cover interact with wild plants and animals. She is a past president of the Ecological Society of Australia and has affiliation with various ecological, conservation, and ornithological societies. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clive McAlpine receives funding from The Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Possingham receives funding from The Australian Research Council, The Australian federal environment department and a variety of other sources through The University of Queensland. He has a 20% position at Imperial College London. He is affiliated with Bush Heritage Australia (Board of Directors) and The Wentworth Group (Founding Member). He provides pro bono advice to a wide variety of organisations. He is currently on an independent advisory panel assisting the state of NSW with their biodiversity legislation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Watson receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is the Director of Science and Research Initiative at the Wildlife Conservation Society. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Rhodes receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Queensland Government, the New South Wales Government and the Australian Government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerrie Wilson receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Environmental Science Program and philanthropic bodies. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Hockings receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the New South Wales Government, the International Union for the Conservation on Nature and various international organisations. </span></em></p>Land clearing in Queensland has tripled in the past five years.Martine Maron, Associate Professor of Environmental Management, The University of QueenslandBill Laurance, Distinguished Research Professor and Australian Laureate, James Cook UniversityBob Pressey, Professor and Program Leader, Conservation Planning, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook UniversityCarla P. Catterall, Professor in ecology and environment, Griffith UniversityClive McAlpine, Senior Research Fellow in Ecology, The University of QueenslandHugh Possingham, Director ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, The University of QueenslandJames Watson, Associate professor, The University of QueenslandJonathan Rhodes, Associate Professor, The University of QueenslandKerrie Wilson, Associate Professor and ARC Future Fellow, The University of QueenslandMarc Hockings, Professor of Environmental Management, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/437472015-07-14T10:09:10Z2015-07-14T10:09:10ZForecasting dead zones and toxic algae in US waterways: a bad year for Lake Erie<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86273/original/image-20150624-31507-bfg9ub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Algae overload: Lake Erie algal bloom 2011.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA/NASA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/293/5530/657">past two decades</a>, scientists have developed ways to predict how ecosystems will react to changing environmental conditions. Called <a href="http://www.graham.umich.edu/scavia/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/cenr_ecologicalforecasting.pdf">ecological forecasts</a>, these emerging tools, if used effectively, can help reduce pollution to our waterways. </p>
<p>Dead zone and toxic algae forecasts are similar to weather and climate forecasts. They can provide near-term predictions of ecosystem responses to short-term drivers such as this year’s nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. They can also be used in scenarios to analyze the impacts of controlling those drivers in the future. </p>
<p>These particular forecasts are important because when they match actual events well, they build confidence in using the models to guide policy and management decisions. Doing these forecasts annually also provides a regular check on whether these problems are being resolved. </p>
<p>While knowing the extent and location of these ecosystem conditions could allow decision-makers to adapt their management decisions, current ecological forecasts – at least those related to dead zones and toxic algae – are not sufficiently tuned in space and time to support that scale of adaptive management. Hopefully, someday they will be. In the meantime, their use provides powerful reminders of unsolved problems.</p>
<h2>This year’s eco-forecast</h2>
<p>Dead zones (hypoxia) are regions within lakes and oceans where oxygen concentrations drop to levels dangerous to marine life. They’re typically caused by decomposing algae, the growth of which is stimulated by nitrogen and phosphorus inputs from land. Toxic algae, also stimulated by these same excess nutrients, can poison aquatic life and humans when they contaminate the water supply. </p>
<p>In recent weeks, I contributed <a href="http://graham.umich.edu/scavia/hypoxia-forecasts">predictions</a> to <a href="http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/ecoforecasting/">NOAA’s</a> ensemble forecasts of this year’s dead zones in the <a href="http://ns.umich.edu/new/multimedia/videos/22957-average-dead-zone-for-gulf-of-mexico-in-2015-u-m-and-partners-predict">Gulf of Mexico</a> and the <a href="http://ns.umich.edu/new/releases/22975-below-average-dead-zone-predicted-for-chesapeake-bay-in-2015">Chesapeake Bay</a>, and the extent of <a href="http://ns.umich.edu/new/multimedia/videos/23004-u-m-partners-predict-severe-harmful-algae-bloom-for-lake-erie">toxic algae in Lake Erie</a>. </p>
<p>The 2015 forecasts remind us that these persistent problems are not yet being addressed effectively. While the dead zone forecasts are for roughly “average” conditions, it is important to note that “average” does not mean natural, and in these cases, “average” is not acceptable. The toxic algae forecast is a clear reminder that long-term nutrient input reduction is critical.</p>
<p><strong>Gulf of Mexico</strong> - In its <a href="http://www.graham.umich.edu/scavia/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/action_20plan_1_.pdf">2001 action plan</a> – confirmed in <a href="http://water.epa.gov/type/watersheds/named/msbasin/upload/2008_8_28_msbasin_ghap2008_update082608.pdf">2008</a> and again in <a href="http://water.epa.gov/type/watersheds/named/msbasin/upload/hypoxia_reassessment_508.pdf">2013</a> – the federal, state and tribal Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force set a goal of reducing the five-year running average extent of gulf hypoxia, or oxygen deficiency, to 5,000 square kilometers (1930 square miles) by 2015. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86165/original/image-20150623-19374-gps1jz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86165/original/image-20150623-19374-gps1jz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86165/original/image-20150623-19374-gps1jz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86165/original/image-20150623-19374-gps1jz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86165/original/image-20150623-19374-gps1jz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86165/original/image-20150623-19374-gps1jz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86165/original/image-20150623-19374-gps1jz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86165/original/image-20150623-19374-gps1jz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gulf of Mexico nitrogen loads.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://graham.umich.edu/scavia/hypoxia-forecasts/">Donald Scavia</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But little progress has been made toward that goal. Since 1995, the gulf dead zone has averaged 15,323 square kilometers, not unlike this year’s prediction of the size of Connecticut. Nutrient-rich runoff from Midwest agriculture ends up in the Mississippi River and eventually makes its way to the gulf. The amount of nitrogen entering the Gulf of Mexico increased, mainly due to agricultural runoff, by about 300% between the 1960s and 1980s, and has changed little since then. </p>
<p>While the size of the gulf dead zone varies from year to year, mostly in response to changing weather patterns in the Corn Belt, the bottom line is that we will never reach the action plan goal of 5,000 square kilometers until more serious actions are taken to reduce the loss of Midwest nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural lands, regardless of the weather.</p>
<p><strong>Chesapeake Bay</strong> - Similar to the Gulf of Mexico, the Chesapeake Bay dead zone forecast of 5.7 cubic kilometers (1.37 cubic miles or 2.3 million Olympic-size swimming pools) is slightly lower than its long-term average. Also similar to the gulf, there is very significant year-to-year variability in inputs and thus, hypoxia. But, unlike the gulf, there appears to be some progress being made toward <a href="http://www.chesapeakebay.net/indicators/indicator/reducing_nitrogen_pollution">nutrient input reductions</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86166/original/image-20150623-19368-1kp6zn5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86166/original/image-20150623-19368-1kp6zn5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86166/original/image-20150623-19368-1kp6zn5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86166/original/image-20150623-19368-1kp6zn5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86166/original/image-20150623-19368-1kp6zn5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86166/original/image-20150623-19368-1kp6zn5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86166/original/image-20150623-19368-1kp6zn5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86166/original/image-20150623-19368-1kp6zn5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chesapeake Bay nitrogen loads.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Donald Scavia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Why? Under an <a href="http://www.epa.gov/reg3wapd/pdf/pdf_chesbay/BayTMDLFactSheet8_26_13.pdf">Environmental Protection Agency- (EPA) enforced regional compact</a>, six states and the District of Columbia have agreed to reduce the nitrogen load 25% by 2025. Notice the word “enforced.” Having in place a two-year milestone check in 2017 under the agreement’s Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) Watershed Implementation Plan should make a difference. Those metrics will be graded by the EPA, and if they are missed, warnings will be issued to members of the regional compact, and the consequences could include additional regulatory measures. The EPA recently determined that the region is likely to <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/editorial/bs-ed-pennsylvania-20150615-story.html">miss that goal by half</a>. So, real accomplishments will depend on the resolve of the EPA and the administration in power to be tough in 2017.</p>
<p><strong>Lake Erie</strong> - This year’s Lake Erie toxic algae forecast is for a bloom larger than the one in 2014 that <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/toxic-algae-cocktail-brews-in-lake-erie-b99344890z1-274542731.html">shut down the water supply</a> to a half-million people in Toledo, and approaching the record-setting massive <a href="http://graham.umich.edu/scavia/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/PNAS.pdf">2011 bloom</a>. It’s worth noting that only a week or two before the formal forecast, NOAA was anticipating a <a href="http://www2.nccos.noaa.gov/coast/lakeerie/bulletin/projection_2015-05.pdf">relatively mild bloom</a>, and the changed forecast was the result of one spring storm. Because these blooms are driven by diffuse phosphorus sources from the agriculturally dominated Maumee River watershed, this update is not surprising, and is a reminder of how much this issue is driven by these <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/regions/midwest">climate-induced increased storms</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, unlike the dead zones, these blooms are highly dynamic in both time and space. In fact, while the 2014 bloom was much smaller than the massive 2011 bloom, it formed near Toledo’s water supply, and local winds mixed the bloom into the city’s deep-water intakes. So bloom predictions, regardless of size, do not necessarily correlate with risk. Until the phosphorus inputs are reduced significantly and consistently so that only the mildest blooms occur, the people, ecosystem and economy of this region are being threatened. We cannot cross our fingers and hope that seasonal fluctuations in weather will keep us safe.</p>
<h2><strong>Using ecological models for scenario analysis</strong></h2>
<p>We also participate in these annual forecasts because these same models are used to help guide decisions on long-term nutrient input targets needed to reduce <a href="http://water.epa.gov/type/watersheds/named/msbasin/upload/2008_1_31_msbasin_sab_report_2007.pdf">dead zones</a> and <a href="http://graham.umich.edu/scavia/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/FINAL-Objectives-TT-report-en-150624-3.pdf">toxic blooms</a> to acceptable levels.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86167/original/image-20150623-19420-cuek1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86167/original/image-20150623-19420-cuek1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86167/original/image-20150623-19420-cuek1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86167/original/image-20150623-19420-cuek1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86167/original/image-20150623-19420-cuek1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86167/original/image-20150623-19420-cuek1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86167/original/image-20150623-19420-cuek1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86167/original/image-20150623-19420-cuek1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forecasting track record.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Donald Scavia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have been tracking the accuracy of some of these annual forecasts and find the models do a pretty good job in years without hurricanes or tropical storms that disrupt dead zones prior to taking measurements. This increases confidence in using these models for providing advice on needed nutrient load reductions. </p>
<p>In fact, some of these models have been used to guide policymakers who set nutrient input reductions, and most reach the surprisingly consistent recommendations of reducing inputs by 35%-45%. However, while some of these <a href="http://www.graham.umich.edu/scavia/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/estuaries_3_models.pdf">recommendations</a> have been in place for over a decade, little progress has been made. Forecasts, scenarios, recommendations and agreements are obviously not enough.</p>
<h2>So what to do?</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://theconversation.com/industrial-corn-farming-is-ruining-our-health-and-polluting-our-watersheds-39721">recent posting</a>, I suggested that while more extensive application of existing and new agricultural best management practices (BMPs), such as streamside buffers and wetlands restoration, are important, they alone may not be sufficient in reducing nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the Gulf of Mexico, the Chesapeake Bay, and Lake Erie. Even if BMPs were effective, the current voluntary, incentive-based regime is not working, as outlined in a <a href="http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/submitted-articles/the-limits-of-voluntary-conservation-programs">report</a> by Marc Ribaudo, senior economist for the USDA Economic Research Service.</p>
<p>The fact is, our watersheds are overwhelmed by industrial-scale row crop agriculture, much of it corn, and real progress will be made only by reducing the demand for corn. That requires modifying the American diet, urging changes in the agricultural supply chain and cutting the production of corn-based ethanol.</p>
<p>While changing diets and supply chains requires long-term cultural change, cutting use of corn in our cars could be done more quickly. </p>
<p>A simple although apparently politically dangerous move would be for Congress to prohibit the use of corn for ethanol production. This has been proposed many times in many places. So why does the federal government continue to insist on burning corn in our gas tanks – especially since it has been <a href="http://www.ewg.org/research/ethanols-broken-promise/epa-s-emissions-assessment">demonstrated</a> that ethanol produces more greenhouse gases than gasoline and it is not good for either <a href="http://www.ewg.org/agmag/2013/02/corn-ethanol-bad-farmers-consumers-and-environment">consumers</a> or the <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/clean_energy/ew3/corn-ethanol-and-water-quality.pdf">environment</a>? Perhaps the answer lies with presidential hopefuls running to Iowa every four years proclaiming love for corn and ethanol, and an ethanol industry building a stronger <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/234393-ethanol-industry-lobbies-up">roster of lobbyists</a>.</p>
<p>These are, of course, political considerations worked out in Washington, DC and state capitals. In the meantime, the dead zones and algae blooms we forecast every year show the ongoing damaging effects of excessive nutrient runoff.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/43747/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donald Scavia receives funding from government agencies and foundations in support of his research.</span></em></p>The same conditions – ultimately tied to nutrient runoff – that created the damaging toxic blooms and dead zones in US waterways of recent years are forecast to return this year.Donald Scavia, Graham Family Professor of Sustainability, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.