tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/omar-bongo-31905/articlesOmar Bongo – The Conversation2023-08-17T15:47:46Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2115372023-08-17T15:47:46Z2023-08-17T15:47:46ZGabon: how the Bongo family’s 56-year rule has hurt the country and divided the opposition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542667/original/file-20230814-15-yo99yi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gabon President Ali Bongo Ondimba speaks during a trade conference in London in 2018. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chris Jackson/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/gabonese-military-officers-announce-they-have-seized-power-2023-08-30/">military intervention</a> appears set to end the Bongo family’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/gabon-president-bongo-run-re-election-august-2023-07-09/">56 years hold</a> to power in Gabon. A group of senior military officers <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/military-announce-coup-in-gabon-as-senior-officers-seize-power-after-presidential-election-12950578">announced</a> that they had seized power shortly after President Ali Bongo Ondimba was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/gabon-president-ali-bongo-wins-third-term-after-disputed-election-2023-08-30/">declared winner</a> of the country’s recently held presidential poll.</p>
<p>The coup leaders claimed the 26 August general election was not credible. They announced a cancellation of the election result, closure of all borders and dissolution of all state institutions including the legislative arm of government.<br>
Ali Bongo was said to have won <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/gabon-election-idAFKBN30507D">64.27%</a> of votes cast in the election that the opposition described as a sham. According to the electoral umpire, Bongo’s main challenger, Albert Ondo Ossa, came second with 30.77%.</p>
<p>Ali Bongo, (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jun/08/gabon-omar-bongo-death-reports">son of former president Omar Bongo who ruled the country from 1967 to 2009</a>) contested the election on the platform of the ruling <a href="https://pdg-gabon.org/">Parti Démocratique Gabonais</a> (PDG), founded by his father. The party has monopolised power in the oil-rich central African country for more than half a century.</p>
<p>The Bongo family has held onto power for <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/gabon-president-bongo-run-re-election-august-2023-07-09/">56 years</a>. It has done so through single-party government, corruption in the mining and oil sectors, and political kinship. According to some estimates Ali Bongo personally controls <a href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/8-richest-dictators-history-172424055.html">US$1 billion</a> in assets, much of that secreted overseas, making him the richest man in Gabon. </p>
<p>In addition, the constitution has been <a href="https://constitutionnet.org/news/revision-gabonese-constitution-between-contestation-modernization-and-inconsistencies">changed several times</a> in the past decades to ensure the Bongos’ continued rule. </p>
<p>First, term limits were removed from the constitution in 2003, ensuring that Bongo could serve as president for life. </p>
<p>Second, traditional two-round ballots were changed into single-round ballots, also in 2003. This was to ensure that Bongo’s opponents could not rally around a single challenger in a run-off. </p>
<p>Third, instead of requiring that the winner obtain a majority, all that is needed for Bongo to be re-elected is a plurality. This means a majority could be less than 50%, as long as the winner has the most votes. Had he been required to win a majority of votes, Ali Bongo, with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/gabon-election-results-disputed-incumbent-ali-bongo-victor-jean-ping">49.8%</a> in the 2016 election, would not be president today.</p>
<p>Fourth, in April 2023, the presidential term was <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230407-gabon-reduces-presidential-term-to-five-years-before-elections">reduced</a> from seven to five years, ensuring the presidential elections would occur at the same time as legislative and local elections. </p>
<p>In the past, after presidential elections, opposition parties would organise against Bongo’s ruling party to capture seats in the legislative and local elections. The change makes it much more likely that all the institutions of government power will be taken by Bongo and his party in one single election. </p>
<p>Bongo’s party increased its seats in the national assembly, holding 63 out of 120 seats in 1990 and most recently 98 out of 143 in 2018. The ruling party has also increased its seats in the senate from 52 out of 92 in 1997, to 46 out of 67 in 2021.</p>
<p>The continuous rule by the Bongos has not been good for a country of just <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/gabon/overview">2.3 million</a> people. Gabon is a resource-rich country and was once heralded as the “<a href="https://bondsloans.com/news/gabon-a-step-in-the-right-direction">Kuwait of Africa</a>”. Because of its small population and large oil reserves, per capita income is at least <a href="https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Gabon/gdp_per_capita_ppp/#:%7E:text=GDP%20per%20capita%2C%20Purchasing%20Power%20Parity&text=The%20average%20value%20for%20Gabon,2022%20is%2013949.16%20U.S.%20dollars.">US$13,949.16</a>. In neighbouring Cameroon, per capita income is only <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/cameroon/gdp-per-capita">US$3,733</a> </p>
<p>But Gabon’s “average” is belied by a population where a third of the citizens live below the poverty line and unemployment stands at about <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.1524.ZS?locations=GA">37%</a> among young people.</p>
<h2>Dynastic republic</h2>
<p>Gabon is not a monarchy but a “dynastic republic”.</p>
<p>In dynastic republics, presidents have concentrated power in their hands and established systems of personal rule. They transmit state power through nepotism to their family and kin. This includes sons and daughters, wives and ex-wives, brothers and sisters, half-siblings and step-siblings, cousins, uncles and aunts, nieces and nephews, in-laws, illegitimate children and so on. </p>
<p>Under this system, the classical ideal of a legal-rational state – where position and rank are distributed based on merit in the name of the rational (efficient and effective) functioning of government -– is corrupted. </p>
<p>In all dynastic republics around the world – including Togo, Equatorial Guinea, Syria, Azerbaijan, North Korea, Turkmenistan and most recently Cambodia –- an institutionalisation of traditional family power through the modern vehicle of a single ruling party has been critical.</p>
<p>In Gabon, this is the Parti Démocratique Gabonais. The party holds the presidential palace and has a majority in the national assembly (98/143 seats) and in the senate (46/67 seats). It also controls the courts, and the regional and municipal governments. </p>
<p>It is critical to understand that no man rules alone. Only with a large party apparatus can a man and his family rule a republic with millions of people.</p>
<p>But why has the rule by one man and his family been tolerated? </p>
<p>The answer is the political elite need him to keep their own positions.</p>
<p>The economist <a href="https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/107671/1/81962733X.pdf">Gordon Tullock</a> hypothesised back in 1987 that dynastic succession appeals to non-familial elites who are wary of a leadership struggle. In 2007, professor of government <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/231991883_THE_RESILIENCE_OF_RULING_PARTIES_Jason_Brownlee_Authoritarianism_in_an_Age_of_Democratization_Cambridge_Cambridge_University_Press_2007_Pp_xiii_264_2399">Jason Brownlee</a> tested this theory by looking at 258 non-monarchical autocrats. He found that </p>
<blockquote>
<p>in the absence of prior experience selecting a ruler through a party, regime elites accepted filial heirs apparent when the incumbent had arisen from a party and his successor predominantly emerged from that organisation. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Political scientists <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Dictator_s_Handbook.html?id=UBY5DgAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y">Bruno Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith</a> argue that </p>
<blockquote>
<p>essential supporters have a much greater chance of retaining their privileged position when power passes within a family from father to son, from king to prince, than when power passes to an outsider.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Omar Bongo founded the PDG in 1967 as a de jure one-party system. After constitutional reforms in 1990, he permitted the existence of opposition parties. But because he never held free or fair elections, the democratic opposition has never managed to wrest power from either the Bongos or their ruling party.</p>
<p>In the past, elections in Gabon were followed by protests, which were followed by security force crackdowns and ultimately silence. But the 2023 election may turn out to be different as it appears to have been followed by a military coup.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated on 30 August to reflect the coup in Gabon.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211537/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Douglas Yates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Gabon is resource rich, but the Bongo family’s continuous rule has been bad news for the country of 2.3 million people.Douglas Yates, Professor of Political Science , American Graduate School in Paris (AGS)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1100762019-04-01T10:39:03Z2019-04-01T10:39:03ZAs its ruling dynasty withers, Gabon – a US ally and guardian of French influence in Africa – ponders its future<p>The fragility of one of the world’s longest-lasting political dynasties was exposed when the military attempted a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gabon-coup/gabon-thwarts-military-coup-attempt-in-presidents-absence-idUSKCN1P10FE">coup in Gabon in January</a>.</p>
<p>The coup, orchestrated by junior members of Gabon’s military, failed to unseat Ali Bongo Ondimba, whose family has run the central African country since the late 1960s. And Gabon’s next presidential election isn’t until the summer of 2023. </p>
<p>Bongo’s time in office may run out sooner. </p>
<p>The 60-year-old strongman has been effectively unable to rule since suffering <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKCN1N31VY-OZATP">an apparent stroke</a> in October 2018, during Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative – often called “Davos in the desert.” </p>
<p>His evident frailty in recent TV appearances, coupled with the failed coup and lack of an obvious heir, has created a strong national sentiment that Gabon’s five-decade Bongo dynasty is on its last legs.</p>
<h2>One of France’s last neocolonial outposts in Africa</h2>
<p>Political upheaval is rare in Gabon, a diminutive central African nation about the size of the state of Colorado, with a population of <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/gabon/overview">2 million</a> and a lucrative oil industry. </p>
<p>Except for a short-lived military coup in 1964, Gabon has been regarded as a bastion of stability in <a href="https://www.cfr.org/interactive/global-conflict-tracker/#!/conflict/violence-in-the-central-african-republic">troubled central Africa</a>, <a href="http://ut.academia.edu/GYLDASOFOULHASTOTHAMOT">where my research is focused</a>. Oil wealth and the Bongo dynasty’s French backing has contributed to Gabon’s <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/the-corrupt-nepotist-who-ruled-gabon-for-40-years-1700197.html">security</a>, and in recent years Bongo has used this stability to turn Gabon into a key <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/05/meet-ali-bongo-ondimba-obamas-man-in-africa/">U.S. ally</a> in the region.</p>
<p>But stability is not the same as democracy. </p>
<p>Since winning independence from France, in 1960, Gabon has had just three presidents. The first was Léon M’ba, who ruled from independence until 1967. The current president’s father – Omar Bongo Ondimba – assumed power <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/524984?seq=2#metadata_info_tab_contents">after M'ba died</a>. </p>
<p>Omar Bongo went on to rule Gabon with an iron fist for 42 years. To stay in power, he oversaw changes that ensured that the country’s nascent electoral system never became <a href="https://www.cairn.info/revue-politique-africaine-2009-2-page-126.htm">independent, free or fair</a>. </p>
<p>During his rule, the elder Bongo helped to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/713675627?casa_token=J8_PMc81kmsAAAAA:74wMxqVYPCQvFxZdf3ttPvD9H7lRvVeu3TzuD65L8EZST9WXaMpw_TH3LrXAlyI78DGWFS_jx_COkQ">keep French political influence</a> and <a href="https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/africa/gb-forrel-fr.htm">military might</a> alive in Africa by signing several mutual defense treaties with France. His policies benefited the “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0963948052000341196">Françafrique</a>” – a now-<a href="https://newafricanmagazine.com/opinions/francafrique-a-brief-history-of-a-scandalous-word/">disparaged term</a> describing France’s “special” relationship with its former colonies on the continent, which has included supporting dictators who protect its economic interests.</p>
<p>Omar Bongo ensured that Gabon remained a “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/161015?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">neocolonial enclave</a>,” as anthropologist Michael Reed wrote in 1987 in the Journal of Modern African Studies. </p>
<p>“Gabon’s very identity is inseparable from France,” Reed argued, “and the latter’s continued claim to ‘major power’ status, in which Africa is crucial, requires Gabon’s assistance.” </p>
<p>President Ali Bongo Ondimba, who assumed power after his father died in 2009 – in yet another election marred by <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2012/gabon">irregularities</a> – inherited his father’s fealty to France. </p>
<p>Gabon still routinely aligns itself with French interests in Africa. During Libya’s 2011 political upheaval, for example, Ali Bongo <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2011-07-01/african-union-refuses-arrest-gaddafi">broke with the African Union</a> and called for the embattled President Muammar Gaddafi <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/11/us-think-tank-hails-african-leader-accused-of-stealing-an-electi/">to step down</a>. France and other Western powers sought to <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20110430-libya-muammar-gaddafi-offers-ceasefire-refuses-to-leave">dislodge the authoritarian Gaddafi</a>, while African nations supported Gaddafi, promoting “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02589001.2012.761463?src=recsys&journalCode=cjca20">African solutions to African problems</a>.”</p>
<h2>A stable non-democracy</h2>
<p>The rise of Ali Bongo – who was minister of defense during the latter part of his father’s reign – was contentious even within his own Gabonese Democratic Party.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266557/original/file-20190329-70999-1vckduc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266557/original/file-20190329-70999-1vckduc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266557/original/file-20190329-70999-1vckduc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266557/original/file-20190329-70999-1vckduc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266557/original/file-20190329-70999-1vckduc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266557/original/file-20190329-70999-1vckduc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266557/original/file-20190329-70999-1vckduc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266557/original/file-20190329-70999-1vckduc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gabon is an island of peace in the often unsettled central Africa region.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bongo was forcefully challenged by a senior former party member in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/24/gabon-court-rules-president-ali-bongo-rightful-winner-of-september-election">2016 presidential election</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/who-jean-ping-gabons-presidential-challenger-494551">Jean Ping</a>. Boosted by the failure of Bongo’s reform agenda to <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-gabon-politics-insight/gabons-bongo-struggles-to-transform-african-oil-republic-idUKKBN0ET1W720140618">transform Gabon into an emerging economy</a>, Ping almost convinced the Gabonese people that the Bongo dynasty had to go.</p>
<p>In the end, Bongo beat <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/who-jean-ping-gabons-presidential-challenger-494551">Ping</a>, a former head of the African Union Commission, by fewer than 6,000 votes, with 50.66 percent of the vote. Ping, along with many local and foreign observers, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gabon-election-election-idUSKCN11C112">considers the results of that race</a> fraudulent.</p>
<p>The 2016 presidential election was damaging for the Bongo dynasty. It was the first time that the opposition to the Bongo family coalesced around a single, credible candidacy. </p>
<p>Ever since then, once peaceful Gabon has experienced <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2019/01/09/a-libreville-un-putsch-rate-revelateur-du-malaise-gabonais_5406573_3212.html">political crises</a>. Ping’s party <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/gabon-votes-for-first-time-since-violence-marred-2016-election-20181006-2">boycotted last year’s municipal elections</a>, and his half of the electorate considers Bongo an illegitimate president. </p>
<h2>Rich and poor</h2>
<p>Gabon has also been in an <a href="https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/gaulme_crisis_oil_producing_countries_gabon_congo_2018.pdf">economic and fiscal crisis</a> since 2014. </p>
<p>Between 2014 and 2016, government revenues decreased substantially due to the <a href="http://africa-me.com/gabon-economic-crisis-government-fuels-investor-mistrust-expropriation-veolia-seeg/">fall of global oil prices</a>. Last year, the International Monetary Fund agreed to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/gabon-economy-imf/gabons-economy-to-recover-in-2018-needs-progress-on-reforms-imf-says-idUSL8N1TS374">bail out Gabon’s government in exchange for</a> structural reforms, including a <a href="http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20180626-gouvernement-gabonais-reduire-train-vie-etat">three-year hiring freeze in the public sector</a>.</p>
<p>Inequality is also <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/income-gini-coefficient">very high</a> in Gabon. Historically, its oil wealth <a href="http://www.ga.undp.org/content/gabon/fr/home/countryinfo/">has not financially benefited most of its people</a>, who remain quite poor.</p>
<p>Gabon places <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/data">110 out of 189 countries on the United Nations Human Development Index</a>, which assesses longevity, education levels, poverty, social equality, maternal death and other measures of well-being. That is higher than <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/data">immediate neighbors like Cameroon, Congo and Equatorial Guinea</a>, but lower than expected for a middle-income country whose government runs on oil money.</p>
<p>The African island of <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/mauritius/overview">Mauritius</a>, for instance, whose gross domestic product is similar to Gabon’s – which was <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=GA-MU">US$15 billion in 2017</a> – fares far better. It ranks 65th worldwide on the UN’s human development index. </p>
<h2>A future yet to be written</h2>
<p>Surveys show that 87 percent of Gabonese feel that the country is <a href="http://www.afrobarometer.org/press/despite-overwhelming-discontent-gabonese-want-democracy-and-reject-military-rule-survey-shows">headed in the wrong direction</a>. They blame Ali Bongo for that, though 71 percent reject any attempt to install a military dictatorship.</p>
<p>Despite attempts by the Gabonese Democratic Party to reassure the public that Bongo’s health is improving, it is <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/gabonNews/idAFL5N20K387">unclear if he will ever recover enough to again lead Gabon</a>. </p>
<p>For now, an amendment of the constitution by Gabon’s constitutional court in November 2018 has ensured that the president remains – at least nominally – <a href="http://constitutionnet.org/news/gabon-constitutional-court-amends-constitution-address-presidents-absence">in charge</a> while recovering from the stroke.</p>
<p>When Bongo dies or is rendered incapacitated – a scenario that, in my assessment, is already well underway – the Bongo dynasty will end.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110076/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gyldas A. Ofoulhast-Othamot is not affiliated with any political organization, but he was a supporter of Jean Ping in Gabon's 2016 presidential election.</span></em></p>Gabon’s strongman president, Ali Bongo, is barely clinging to power after contested elections, a stroke and a coup attempt. The Bongo family has run this stable central African nation for 52 years.Gyldas A. Ofoulhast-Othamot, Adjunct professor, Political Science and International Studies, University of TampaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/916902018-02-13T13:16:18Z2018-02-13T13:16:18ZWith a busy election schedule, Africa needs a reversal of the old order<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206165/original/file-20180213-44660-yvjtjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democratic Republic of Congo's President Joseph Kabila. Time to step aside.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Kenny Katombe</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The winds of change may blow in several directions across Africa this year as a host of countries prepare for elections. But a change in power isn’t always synonymous with change in governance. In Africa, very often, a new face in power doesn’t signal change of the system of governance.</p>
<p>The continent is set for a busy 2018 electoral year. In the past presidential, legislative, or local elections, or a combination, have had a destabilising if not devastating effect due to pre and post-election transparency issues and accompanying protests, violence and political instability. But when conducted well, elections have also brought hope for a better future. Ghana and Benin are good examples. </p>
<p>The year ahead won’t be any different. On the one hand the expected end of Joseph Kabila’s tenure in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) might bring momentous change to the country. On the other it’s more difficult to foresee better days for South Sudan. Others might also depart before elections. </p>
<h2>Early departures?</h2>
<p>In Pretoria President Jacob Zuma <a href="https://theconversation.com/zuma-finally-falls-on-his-sword-but-not-before-threatening-to-take-the-house-down-with-him-91910">resigned</a> on February 14. He had come under increasing pressure to do so following the December election of Cyril Ramaphosa <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f727f130-e3e7-11e7-97e2-916d4fbac0da">as president of the African National Congress</a>, and the future president of the country. </p>
<p>And seven years after the Jasmine Revolution that <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/01/2011126121815985483.html">ousted the regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali</a>, Tunisians are back on the streets. The wave that took away Ben Ali now threatens to sweep the government of Beji Caid Essebsi.</p>
<h2>Presidential seats at stake</h2>
<p>The DRC has added more instability to its already complex situation. The country has been embroiled in a political and institutional crisis since Joseph Kabila extended his term in office, after failing to amend the constitution <a href="https://www.enca.com/africa/dr-congo-president-can-remain-in-office-without-a-vote-court">to remove the disposition preventing him from running for a third term</a>. He has twice postponed presidential elections, despite signing the December 2016 agreement whose main clause was <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/deal-finalised-peaceful-political-transition-drc-161231182050153.html">to have presidential and legislative elections held by December 2017</a>.</p>
<p>Kabila’s failure to hold elections by the December 2017 deadline has led to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/31/congo-security-forces-shoot-two-dead-during-protest-against-president">mounting national protests</a>, which <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/drc-protesters-killed-anti-kabila-protests-180121105558348.html">the regime has crushed</a>. Increasing national and international pressure might see Kabila out in 2018 unless he amends the constitution.</p>
<p>In Cameroon, Paul Biya, 85, in power since 1982, should be up for <a href="https://www.eisa.org.za/calendar2018.php">reelection in October</a>. Although there is no indication that he will relinquish power, he has <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20171003-eye-africa-cameroon-anglophone-unrest-kenya-election-protest-oromo-festival-ethiopia">faced dissensions and separatist claims from so-called anglophone Cameroon</a> and is believed to have ill-health. The current lack of succession plans if Biya does not run, <a href="https://www.proshareng.com/news/Reviews%20&%20Outlooks/Cameroon---Risks-Will-Rise-On-Upcoming-Election/36227">leaves room for speculation and uncertainty</a>. </p>
<p>In Madagascar, concern reigns in the run-up to the presidential <a href="https://www.eisa.org.za/calendar2018.php">election at the end of this year</a>, which should see incumbent Hery Rajaonarimampianina face up his two predecessors Marc Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina. The island, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13861843">with a tumultuous history, has been prey to institutional instability since 2001</a>. There are fears this will happen again.</p>
<p>Three countries, South Sudan, Libya and Mali, plagued by instability for some years, <a href="https://www.eisa.org.za/calendar2018.php">are expected to hold presidential elections this year</a>. Strong uncertainties prevail in South Sudan and Libya where negotiations for peaceful settlements have yielded little tangible results. In Mali the government doesn’t control large parts of its territory and <a href="https://minusma.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/170928_sg_report_on_mali_september_eng.pdf">is not immune to terrorist attacks</a>.</p>
<p>No surprise will come from Cairo where, Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/24/egypt-heading-towards-elections-president-sisis-name-ballot/">will certainly be reelected president of a country</a> he <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/23/former-egyptian-general-arrested-by-military-after-announcing-presidential-bid-sami-anan">now controls unchallenged</a>.</p>
<h2>Longevity and power sharing dilemmas</h2>
<p>In West Africa, Togolese Faure Gnassingbé appears as a poor student in the field of democracy. He came to power in 2005 in a quasi-dynastic political ‘transition’, replacing his father, General Gnassingbe Eyadema, <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/togo-protests-crisis-171019163543710.html">who had been in power for 38 years</a>. Reelected in 2015, he has, since August 2017, faced massive and sustained popular <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/togo-protests-crisis-171019163543710.html">protests</a> demanding institutional reforms and the end of his family’s 50-year rule.</p>
<p>The Economic Community of West African States is trying, through negotiations, <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/nigerias-president-warns-togo-about-political-instability-20180208">to restore calm</a>. An uneasy situation is emerging given that Faure is the current chairman of <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2017/06/04/togolese-president-faure-gnassingbe-is-new-ecowas-chairperson/">the organization until June 2018</a>. But if he completely loses the support of his peers, he might be on his way out. Legislative elections are scheduled to take place by July.</p>
<p>Like Togo, Gabon experienced a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jun/08/gabon-omar-bongo-death-reports">similar ‘transition’</a> from father Omar Bongo, who died in power in 2009 after 42 years of rule, to his son Ali Bongo, who replaced him that year. Once a haven of peace in an unstable Central African region, Gabon has tumbled into a serious crisis since the highly contested presidential election in 2016 which was <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/gabon-mulls-amnesty-for-post-election-violence-20170914">marred by widespread fraud and deadly repression</a>. Jean Ping, leader of the opposition and former chairperson of the African Union Commission, continues to claim victory.</p>
<p>The hardening of the Libreville regime has recently resulted in a constitutional amendment that the opposition characterises as a <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/gabon-president-defends-constitutional-change-after-parliament-gives-okay-20180111">‘monarchisation’ of power</a>. Legislative elections planned this year will certainly be a turning point for the country.</p>
<p>In Guinea Bissau, the power of José Mario Vaz is in troubled waters, with the appointment of a seventh prime minister <a href="https://www.enca.com/africa/guinea-bissau-president-names-new-prime-minister-0">since 2014</a>. The opposition has decried the president for overstepping his constitutional prerogatives by monopolising power, in violation of the Conakry agreement signed in 2016, <a href="http://www.ecowas.int/ecowas-mission-to-guinea-bissau-to-assess-the-implementation-of-conakry-and-bissau-agreements/">under the aegis of the regional west African body</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/ecowas-threatens-guinea-bissau-sanctions-as-crisis-drags-20171217">Vaz runs the risk of sanctions</a>, in which case he would definitively lose the support of the organisation and the protection of <a href="https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/int/ecomib.htm">the regional troop deployment</a>. This would precipitate his departure and could plunge the country into chaos, in a state that has <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/04/2012414125957785808.html">mostly known military coups and instability</a>. Legislative elections are expected to take place this year.</p>
<p>In Chad, the crisis that has affected resource-dependent countries has <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2018/02/08/chad-suspends-10-parties-for-disturbing-public-order/">plagued the economy</a>. This is coupled with Idris Deby’s stronghold on power and <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/afr20/7045/2017/en/">his repressive methods</a>. Despite facing civil unrest, he is unlikely to be shaken even though the country <a href="https://globalriskinsights.com/2018/01/civil-unrest-chad-idriss-deby/">is expected to hold legislative elections this year</a>.</p>
<h2>Ghana setting the pace</h2>
<p>Over the past 20 years, since the John Kofi Agyekum Kufuor presidency, Ghana has epitomised democracy south of the Sahara (aside from South Africa). Its institutional stability and peaceful transitions of power are commendable.</p>
<p>What the continent <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/12/world/africa/12prexy.html">needs most are strong institutions</a>, which will only come about with a regeneration of its leadership as well as its political class. This renewal must be rooted in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTNk4q6zRw8">paradigm shift</a> as embodied with determination, class and panache by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PNJjpw-Qb4">Ghanaian president Nana Akufo Addo</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91690/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohamed M Diatta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Africa needs strong institutions. But they can only be built if there’s a change in leadership.Mohamed M Diatta, Ph.D. Candidate & Lecturer in Political Science-International Relations, Sciences Po Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/847272017-10-03T12:16:02Z2017-10-03T12:16:02ZGabon’s political force is its thriving hip-hop scene<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187574/original/file-20170926-17414-bikw6d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Duo Movaizhaleine and artist Wonda Wendy take a minute's silence to honor the dead during a concert in Paris, February 2017. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Silber Mba </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Gabon as in <a href="http://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_CEA_209_0143--masculine-strength-and-rap-music.htm">other African states</a>, rap has become instrumental in constructing political identity.</p>
<p>On August 17, Gabon celebrated 57 years of independence with a massive <a href="http://news.alibreville.com/h/74818.html">free concert</a> in the capital, Libreville. The aim: to promote national unity in a festive fashion. An impressive lineup of local hip hop stars – including Ba'Ponga, Tris, Tina and Ndoman – were invited to draw in the younger crowds.</p>
<p>The celebrations held particular significance in light of another, darker anniversary. Last year on August 31, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/gabon-election-results-disputed-incumbent-ali-bongo-victor-jean-ping">shockingly violent</a> crisis erupted following President Ali Bongo’s <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2016/09/09/presidentielle-gabonaise-comment-truquer-une-election-pour-75-000-euros_4995385_3212.html">contested electoral victory</a>.</p>
<p>One year on, the country is <a href="http://www.jeuneafrique.com/depeches/468781/politique/gabon-un-an-apres-la-presidentielle-un-pays-en-situation-delicate/">still feeling</a> the social, political and economic effects, as is its rap scene.</p>
<h2>Violent demonstrations</h2>
<p>In the early 1990s, Gabon’s government was shut down by violent demonstrations and a general strike. It forced dictator Omar Bongo, who <a href="https://www.cairn.info/revue-politique-africaine-2009-2-page-126.htm">had been in power since 1967</a>, to set up a national conference reestablishing a multiparty system and granting greater freedom of expression.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">‘African revolution’, one of V2A4’s first hits, explicitly mentions the misappropriation of public funds.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Against the backdrop of this popular uprising, the youth of Libreville began writing rap music. Inspired by American hip hop artists like Public Enemy and NWA, and French rappers like NTM and Assassin, they expressed their need for escape, freedom and change.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Si'Ya Po'Ossi X bluntly describes daily life in the ‘mapanes’, poor urban areas where the majority of people live.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yet this subversive scene hasn’t been totally exempt from the kinds of ties between music and politics that have existed since the onset of African independence in the 1960s. In fact, some protest rappers have links to the “system” through family ties with political elites. V2A4, for example, is made up of the son of the Interior minister (a close relative to former president Omar Bongo) and the child of a local businessman. Both study in France and live off the wealth of the “system”.</p>
<h2>Bling Gabon style</h2>
<p>From the 2000s on, inspired by <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/what-is-gangsta-rap-2857307">gangsta rap</a>, video clips have started to feature more gold chains, souped-up cars, women in suggestive poses and virile displays of masculinity.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The rapper Kôba is an icon of bling culture in Gabon.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ushered in by bling style rapper Kôba, a new generation of rappers began to write songs that deviated from the protest-driven hip hop of their predecessors. This trend was encouraged by the appearance of new record labels, with close ties to the government and elites, further reinforcing the link between music and politics.</p>
<p>This fusion between music and politics reached new highs during the 2009 election. Presidential candidate Ali Bongo used the popularity of rap artists to attract youth support and distinguish himself from his father, Omar, who had died in June that year.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Presidential candidate Ali Bongo on stage with rap stars from Hay'oe, who supported his campaign.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Following his election in 2009, Ali Bongo brought new faces from the world of hip hop into the government. Due to these kinds of affiliations, Bongo’s semi-authoritarian regime has exercised particularly tight control over the hip hop scene, in particular via the media.</p>
<h2>Without jobs</h2>
<p>Right from the start, Bongo’s first seven-year term in office was <a href="https://www.cairn.info/article.php?ID_ARTICLE=POLAF_144_0157">marked</a> by a decline in living standards and social infrastructure and continuing high unemployment levels – more than 20% of the population, and 35% of young people are <a href="http://www.banquemondiale.org/fr/news/feature/2015/03/31/gabons-unemployment-conundrum-why-economic-growth-is-not-leading-to-more-jobs">without jobs</a>. This, while the Bongo family’s spending has <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2015/08/20/ali-bongo-seme-a-tout-va-la-fortune-de-papa_1366491">reached outrageous highs</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://gabonreview.com/blog/musique-f-a-n-g-entre-nouveau-single-diatribe-contre-censure/">Censorship</a>and the co-option or <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2014/12/20/gabon-des-manifestants-reclament-le-depart-du-president_4544324_3212.html">silencing of opposition</a> have become increasingly common. Dissenting hip hop artists now have to find alternative ways to spread their messages.</p>
<p>Most subversive rap is now produced abroad, with several well-known Gabonese rappers making their music in China, South Africa, the US or France. These artists-in-exile form a highly political network. Their songs reach the streets of Libreville through social media, becoming calls for political debate and action.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The title ‘Mister Zero’ was recorded in south of France by rapper Saik1ry who condemned Ali Bongo’s disastrous record, now an anthem at opposition demonstrations. </movie
Back home, many artists continue the fight in spite of censorship. In 2015, outspoken rapper Keurtyce E became the first to release a song openly opposing the current regime.
Keurtyce directly threatens the President in his song ‘We’ll make a fresh start’
Beyond the lyrical content of these songs, Gabonese artists ingeniously use the musical arrangements to subversive ends.
Clever use of sampling
Sampling, cutting and looping allow artists to anchor their music within the local context, by using samples from traditional instruments or famous local songs, for instance. These techniques also carry political meaning, with artists mixing in lyrics, musical samples or slogans from activist musicians who they see as their ideological forebears.
Pierre-Claver Akendengué, for example, an icon of 1960s pan-Africanism and resistor to the authoritarian regime during the one-party system, remains a major source of inspiration for Gabonese musicians today.
The chorus from Movaizhaleine’s song ‘Aux choses du pays’ (To the stuff of our country) is adapted from the music of Akendengué.
Rapper/producer Lord Ekomy Ndong recently demonstrated another means of subversion. In a new song in which he samples excerpts from a speech by President Ali Bongo, juxtaposed with the words of social media activists, to condemn corruption and misappropriation of public funds.
Subversion through juxtaposition by Lord Ekomy Ndong.
Flareups on social media
During last year’s election, a great rift appeared in the rap scene between supporters and opponents of the president. A series of flareups on social media and diss-and-response songs deepened the divide.
Bongo had his praise singers:
On the one side, rappers aligned with the Bongo family, involved in rallies and producing songs to support the incumbent party.
But Bongo’s opponents were as vocal:
On the other side, protest rappers, denounce increased corruption and poverty since Bongo has taken office.
Rappers who had previously cooperated with Bongo joined opposition movements to demonstrate their disappointment with government failures. It intensified after troops opened fire on demonstrators following the release of the election results. Several people were killed and numerous others disappeared.
Just two months after this crackdown, Kôba, former poster boy for the system, released the song “Odjuku”. The title is a reference to Bongo’s supposed Nigerian biological father. The rapper reignited the controversy surrounding the president’s origins and joined other artists in declaring “On ne te suit pas” (We don’t follow you).
Kôba,‘Odjuku’
Forgetting the quagmire
One year on, the government is trying to make people forget its quagmire with events such as the massive August 17 free concert.
Yet, the protest movement is still active: demonstrations continue within striking government departments and at Libreville University. In the streets of Paris and New York, Gabonese expats rally together.
LestatXXL/Lord Ekomy Ndong ‘Sur mon drapeau’ (By my flag)
Through their songs, rappers like Lestat XXL and Lord Ekomy Ndong, commemorate the sorrowful anniversary of the 2016 repression:
Here no one will forget. We’ll hoist up the flame…
No red on my flag. Nothing will ever be the same.
<em>Alice Aterianus-Owanga is the author of “Rap Was Born Here! Music, Power and Identity in Modern Gabon”, published by Maison des Sciences de l’Homme, September 2017.</em>
<em>Translated from the French by Alice Heathwood for Fast for Word.</em></span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alice Aterianus-Owanga received funding from French Minister of Higher Education and research for this research, and she is currently receiving fundings from the Swiss National Fund for research. </span></em></p>Rap has become instrumental in constructing identity and radically reshaping relations to politics in Gabon and other African states.Alice Aterianus-Owanga, Postdoctoral researcher in Anthropology, Université de LausanneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/663742016-10-05T10:56:35Z2016-10-05T10:56:35ZGabon: no sign in sight of a family dynasty being displaced<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140314/original/image-20161004-20223-stenan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The remains of a burned car outside Gabon's National Assembly. It was set alight during unrest after the disputed reelection of President Ali Bongo. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Edward McAllister</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the second time in seven years, a presidential election in Gabon has triggered <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/gabon-election-results-disputed-incumbent-ali-bongo-victor-jean-ping">violent unrest</a>. Rich in oil, uranium and manganese, Gabon now faces a turbulent future. Incumbent president Ali Bongo’s narrow victory over opponent Jean Ping ignited the country’s main cities and <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/gabon-court-to-recount-disputed-vote-results-ambassador-says">forced a recount</a> of the vote. </p>
<p>The crisis erupted when the candidate of the united opposition, 73-year-old Ping, <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/gabon-opposition-leader-jean-ping-won-election-160903041118321.html">declared himself the winner</a>. Three days later Bongo, 57, endorsed the <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/gabonNews/idAFL8N1BC4GJ">official result</a> announced by the National Electoral Commission or Cénap. There were only 5,594 votes separating the two from a registered total of 627,805 voters.</p>
<p>In the main cities of Libreville and Port-Gentil, protesters erected roadblocks and <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/gabonNews/idAFL8N1BC5SO">set fire to the National Assembly</a>. Within days there were at least three deaths. More than a thousand protesters and looters were arrested.</p>
<p>The international reaction was to call for peace and a recount of the votes. The United Nations and the European Union meanwhile encouraged Ping to agree to an official intervention of Gabon’s constitutional court. In the end, the court – an institution staffed by judges devoted to Ali Bongo – ruled that the incumbent was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/24/gabon-court-rules-president-ali-bongo-rightful-winner-of-september-election">victorious</a> with a slightly higher majority than first announced. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, things don’t look good for Bongo. He faced turmoil at the 2009 election, when his ability as a ruler was untested. In the <a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-the-Republic-of-Gabons-ratings-to-B1-outlook--PR_347929">current economic context</a> in 2016, he has become a liability. Will his foreign supporters grow weary of his increasingly shaky hold on power?<br>
In Gabon itself, it is not clear whether the elite who have been slighted by Bongo has enough popular backing to confront the heavily armed, well-organised president. Ordinary Gabonese face <a href="https://libreville.usembassy.gov/pr-09242016.html">ruthless retaliation</a>. Foreign observers reported that roadblocks obstructed the main roads in Libreville while <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gabon-election-idUSKCN11X1T1">fighter jets</a> flew low over the city. </p>
<p>Yet Gabon, a nation that the Gabonese like to mock as “the country where nothing ever happens,” can always surprise.</p>
<h2>The birth of a “soft” dictatorship</h2>
<p>Since independence in 1960 Gabon has nurtured strong economic and diplomatic links with its former colonial ruler France. These enduring connections are an important part of today’s volatile situation. In 2009 then French president Nicolas Sarkozy made it known that he <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/former-french-president-sarkozy-under-fire-telling-gabonese-students-go-back-gabon-1582816">supported Ali Bongo’s candidacy</a>. The choice, some said, was to ensure the former colonial power’s name would not be sullied by secret documents that former leader Omar Bongo had stacked at the presidential palace. </p>
<p>France is not the only Western democracy to back the Gabonese government. This is mostly because Gabon has remained a “soft” dictatorship based on popular politics of regional equilibrium and a fairly successful system of redistribution of national wealth. Both have spared the country from the bloody ethnic conflicts of its neighbours, and tempered the rapacity of the local political class.</p>
<p>Under Omar Bongo between 1967 and 2009, the contact between Gabonese politics and the electoral base was built on a flexible system of co-option called “union nationale” or national unity. This was initiated in the 1960s by the first president of Gabon, Léon Mba. A member of the Fang ethnic group and a shrewd opponent of the French colonial regime, Mba surrounded himself with cabinets composed of representatives of all the country’s ethnic groups and provinces. </p>
<p>Mba also singled out Omar Bongo, a young and indefatigable bureaucrat from a minority ethnic group (Teke) in eastern Gabon, as his heir apparent. When Omar Bongo succeeded Mba, he embraced “union nationale” and added new forms of political patronage towards opponents to his regime. </p>
<p>In a country of <a href="http://countrymeters.info/en/Gabon">fewer than two million people</a> where more than 50 different languages are spoken, the public was reassured by the fact that the only ethnic group with a relative demographic advantage, the Fang, would not be in a position to monopolise power to the detriment of others. The Fang make up approximately 35% of the population.</p>
<p>The second key to the political system’s longevity lies in the many channels through which largesse is redistributed. Even if the political elite siphons off the largest part of the national income, most of them keep feeding a pyramid of allies, dependants and voters with money, help and gifts in kind, especially during electoral campaigns.</p>
<p>Gabon is a rich country with a poor population. GDP per capita is <a href="http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1264947">one of the highest</a> in Africa. Yet public education is broken and it daily water or electricity cuts are common. The majority of Gabonese people have no stable employment. Endemic economic insecurity has worsened since 2014 when the drop in oil prices dried up the country’s revenues. </p>
<p>Deprived of regular and equitable returns from mining and oil revenues, the Gabonese are highly dependent on the whims of a political class. This class presents itself as generous and ostentatious – a very popular political style in Gabon – while remaining in control of the national revenue. </p>
<h2>Elections under tight control</h2>
<p>It is also essential to understand the extent of control maintained by the state on electoral operations. The presidential election of 2016 is a perfect example of the government’s stranglehold:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The election date was announced only eight weeks before the vote,</p></li>
<li><p>Candidates had barely five weeks to submit their candidacies,</p></li>
<li><p>The official election campaign was restricted to within 14 days of the vote,</p></li>
<li><p>The 628,124 voter cards printed by government, and not the electoral body</p></li>
<li><p>The voter cards were distributed in a mere three weeks, and, last but not least</p></li>
<li><p>The Constitutional Court, the final arbiter on any dispute, is presided over by a former lover of Ali Bongo’s father.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>The end of “national unity”</h2>
<p>Gabonese often express rampant distrust and hatred of the president. Ali Bongo is nicknamed “the Devil”, and is seen as an intruder to traditional Gabonese politics. His coming to power in 2009 imposed a dynastic logic that broke from the political patronage and ethnic equilibrium nurtured in the 1960s. </p>
<p>By contrast, Ping’s slogan – loosely translated as “the right dosage” – gives a nod to the tradition of ethnic and national balance. Ping, moreover, is a seasoned politician who can boast international stature. He served as Secretary General of the African Union from 2008-2012. When his position was not renewed in 2012, Ping resented the lack of support from Ali Bongo.</p>
<p>But the odds against a radical change of power are considerable. The opposition in Gabon is historically weak, poorly organised, and ready to collude with those in power. Most opponents to the regime are technocrats, or known to be close to the Bongo family. </p>
<p>Against these odds, France and the EU did not take the risk of pressuring Bongo to quit and encouraging Ping to claim electoral victory. Yet their lukewarm reaction to Bongo’s swearing-in suggests that the regime is now in survival mode. Opportunities for a legal political change are perhaps now more real than ever.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66374/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Florence Bernault does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ali Bongo seems to have won Gabon’s elections. Yet his contested “victory” has radically changed the political field in this soft democracy, one of Africa’s richest and most stable.Florence Bernault, Professeur, University of Wisconsin-MadisonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.