tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/peter-hendy-5482/articlesPeter Hendy – The Conversation2013-07-21T20:57:47Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/162572013-07-21T20:57:47Z2013-07-21T20:57:47ZThe Eden-Monaro project: The campaign for Eden-Monaro<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27771/original/wj98jjb7-1374383646.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Liberal candidate Peter Hendy has a lot of federal support in his campaign.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Though the date is now in flux, then-Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s decision to announce the election months in advance has meant the campaigning in Eden-Monaro began some time ago.</p>
<p>There are already six announced candidates. While only a major party candidate will win the seat, preferences from minor parties or high profile independents can play a large part in determining the outcome, and possibly government. Among the candidates whose preferences could be crucial are the Greens’ Catherine Moore, a former Palerang Councillor who has stood for both the state and federal seat in previous elections, and Cooma-Monaro Mayor, Dean Lynch, who is standing for Clive Palmer’s Palmer United Party.</p>
<p>The incumbent, Labor’s Mike Kelly, is standing for his third term. Kelly is a former colonel in the Australian army with a PhD in military law and who, as a military lawyer in Iraq during the 2003 invasion, inspected US-allied detention facilities and blew the whistle on the torture of Iraqis in Abu Ghraib. Kelly retired from the army in 2007 to contest the seat of Eden-Monaro at the request of then Opposition Leader, Kevin Rudd. He has made no secret of his support for Rudd in the leadership spills.</p>
<p>As Minister for Defence Materiel, Kelly has a large, well-staffed office in Queanbeyan. The street front is fitted out in official Australian government livery with only a single photo of Kelly, his name, appointment and the coat-of-arms logo of the Australian Government. There is no party ID or election material evident from the street or in the waiting room inside the office.</p>
<p>The Liberal candidate, Peter Hendy, worked closely with the Howard government as advisor to Industrial Relations Minister Peter Reith and then CEO of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. In opposition he was Chief of Staff to former Leader, Brendan Nelson and advisor to Deputy Leader Julie Bishop. He believes that his party’s decision not to select their candidate in 2010 until eight weeks out from the election was a major campaign mistake. The party learned its lesson and Hendy, who holds a PhD in economics, was pre-selected a year ago.</p>
<p>Hendy’s campaign office is at the opposite end of Queanbeyan’s main street from Kelly’s office. It is spacious on the inside and impossible to miss from the outside, decked out with posters and stacked with campaign material. He says that the party sees Eden-Monaro as a key to victory in this election and is putting a lot of resources into the Eden-Monaro campaign.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27775/original/yjk479wg-1374385464.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27775/original/yjk479wg-1374385464.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27775/original/yjk479wg-1374385464.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27775/original/yjk479wg-1374385464.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27775/original/yjk479wg-1374385464.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27775/original/yjk479wg-1374385464.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27775/original/yjk479wg-1374385464.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">As Minister for Defence Materiel, Mike Kelly has a well staffed office.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Max Blenkin</span></span>
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<p>Kelly’s approach to the 2013 election is targeted directly at his constituency. He is taking government policy to the relevant sections of the electorate and tailoring it to suit local communities. The three main issues on which he is basing his claim for reelection, are renewable energy, the NBN, and the promotion of tourism in the region. He has a particular enthusiasm for the first of these, pointing out that the government has already invested over $1 billion in renewable energy in the region through the Clean Energy Future policy, creating 2300 new jobs in the process. He believes the NBN, currently being rolled out in the northern end of the electorate, is a “real gamechanger” and has a long-term vision of creating an Australian Silicon Valley in the region with growing opportunities for e-commerce.</p>
<p>Hendy’s top issues are those on which the Liberal Party is campaigning at national level. He says the issues raised with him “all the time” in the electorate are cost of living, specifically higher energy prices because of the carbon tax, economic mismanagement and border security. Hendy does not believe that the NBN is relevant and points out that the Howard government telecommunications program to eliminate mobile phone blackspots would have been delivered by 2009, had it not been cancelled by the incoming Rudd government in 2007. In contrast to Kelly’s optimistic outlook for the region based on NBN opportunities, Hendy is concerned that many small businesses in the region are under pressure due to increasing internet trading and online purchasing.</p>
<p>In communicating their campaign message both candidates agree that the most effective way is direct contact with constituents. Both Kelly and Hendy travel long distances in getting around the electorate but believe that the face-to-face approach is appreciated by people in the more remote areas of the region and allows them to keep in touch with local issues. Kelly has a family history in the region going back four generations and says he enjoys driving around the electorate and seeing various landmarks named after his forebears.</p>
<p>Kelly singles out radio as his preferred medium for campaigning. In an electorate as large as Eden-Monaro, he points out that there are “a lot of people who spend a lot of time in cars” and that in some of the rural areas radio is a primary source of information for many people. He uses new media, is an active Twitter user and has a Facebook page but he says that this forms only a very small part of his overall campaigning. He does not and will not, despite requests from the ALP campaign office, do “robo-calls” nor will he resort to negative campaigning about the other side. He is quite sceptical when it comes to taking advice from PR experts who advised him to shave off his moustache and wear certain coloured ties.</p>
<p>Hendy’s campaign is solidly based on traditional media. With a well-resourced campaign fund, he is already airing advertising on TV and in the local print media. He has a Facebook page but does not use Twitter due to a Liberal Party ban on the use of that medium by new candidates. He says that while Twitter is fine for shadow ministers who are experienced in its use, the party believes that it is “fraught with danger”.</p>
<p>Hendy admits that the change in the Prime Ministership has meant a change in campaign focus, as much of his message has been based on linking Kelly with the unpopularity of former Prime Minister Gillard. Kelly reflects this, commenting that Prime Minister Rudd is “overwhelmingly preferred” in this electorate and the change has made his campaign a lot easier. While Kelly, however, is able to cite polling data as an indication of how the campaign is moving, Hendy says he takes no notice of any polls, because, regardless of what they indicate, his job is still to run a strong campaign for the Liberal Party.</p>
<p>Both candidates commend the local branches of their respective parties for maintaining high profiles within their local communities. Hendy says that while party membership is falling, the support base of the party is growing and he has no problem in attracting people to assist in his campaigning. Interestingly, both candidates are quick to dismiss the local branch significance of the opposing party. Both Hendy and Kelly believe that most of the local presence of his opponent’s party is, in fact, comprised of ACT and not local branch members.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16257/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Tennant-Wood does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Though the date is now in flux, then-Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s decision to announce the election months in advance has meant the campaigning in Eden-Monaro began some time ago. There are already six…Robin Tennant-Wood, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Business and Government, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/162592013-07-21T20:12:44Z2013-07-21T20:12:44ZThe Eden-Monaro project: Call election quickly, voters say<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27774/original/bzxczg55-1374385343.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters in Mike Kelly's Eden-Monaro electorate are keen to see an election date named sooner rather than later. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With speculation reaching fever pitch about election timing, voters from the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro are strongly urging Kevin Rudd to call the poll quickly.</p>
<p>The University of Canberra, in conjunction with The Conversation, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-eden-monaro-project-the-first-report-14118">has been tracking</a> a diverse <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-eden-monaro-project-voters-disappointed-with-the-national-leaders-and-debate-14142">group of Eden-Monaro voters</a> over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-eden-monaro-project-the-campaign-for-eden-monaro-16257">last three months</a>. In an online discussion last week, 70% said the election should be held “as soon as possible”; only 30% said the PM should wait until later in the year. The overwhelming preference on timing ran across party lines.</p>
<p>The discussion came just after Rudd announced the earlier introduction of the emissions trading scheme but before he unveiled his tough “Papua New Guinea solution” on boat arrivals.</p>
<p>Since the group’s session last month, Rudd has become PM and the political landscape has transformed. Participants had previously advocated the leadership switch; they weren’t surprised by it, but were strongly divided along party lines about it.</p>
<p>Labor supporters believed it was better for the country and that the ALP now had a chance of winning.</p>
<p>A middle aged female Labor voter from Bodalla said: “I always felt that Kevin Rudd should never have been ousted in favour of Julia Gillard … Even though we vote for a party and what it can offer, it certainly helps that the leader of that party is more charismatic. I wish the Libs would do the same with Malcolm Turnbull”.</p>
<p>But those who identified as Liberal, independent or Green believed Rudd was worse for the country. They talked about the perceived failure of policies (insulation, boat arrivals) and the dysfunction of the previous government.</p>
<p>“Labor supporters are in a honeymoon period where they are glassy-eyed to have him back but his true colours will come through after a period”, said a Queanbeyan Liberal supporter.</p>
<p>A Braidwood Greens voters said the leadership change “had to happen” although she felt sorry for Julia Gillard. “Labor now has a remote chance of being elected” but Rudd “better hold the elections soon, before people remember how bad he was!”</p>
<p>Looking back on Gillard, voters believed she had paved the way for other women. They identified the carbon tax as a major shortcoming of her prime ministership, saying she had damaged her reputation by going back on her word.</p>
<p>Labor supporters identified her achievements (disability reform, NBN, education, managing minority government); Liberals were scathing. An older male Liberal supporter from Bendoura said: “She was the wrong person to be the first female PM. There are plenty of female prime ministers around the world all doing a better job than she had done”.</p>
<p>People were split on the impact that gender had had on Gillard’s role as PM. Many women, regardless of party allegiance, thought gender was an issue and that politicians and media had treated her differently because of it. But this was disputed by hard Liberal males and some women; there were criticisms of her “playing the gender card”.</p>
<p>Although expectations of a Labor victory were typically along party lines, most people believed Tony Abbott was now on the back foot and needed to stop the negativity and provide policies.</p>
<p>Rudd’s and Abbott’s personalities were criticised (along party lines); there was a sense that both leaders were less than ideal, and frustration there was lack of choice in a two-party system.</p>
<p>A Liberal voter from Eden said: “With Rudd as leader a certain defeat has changed to a very close probable election result. Abbott has not stepped up with party policies for the public to consider as yet so Rudd has all the limelight. Rudd is acting like a pop star”.</p>
<p>At the electorate level, just over half the group predicted local member Mike Kelly would win over Liberal Peter Hendy (52-48%). The prediction went mostly along party lines with Kelly attracting support from those who identified as Green, Independent or non-partisan voters.</p>
<p>Few felt the local campaign was yet in full swing. People had seen some activity from Kelly and Hendy, although this seemed to be determined by location (there were mentions of appearances at markets, letterbox drops and media advertising).</p>
<p>Unprompted criticism came from Liberal voters about the recently-reported cost of more than $500,000 for Kelly’s office upgrade.</p>
<p>Some voters thought it better to have their local MP in the government, believing they would be able to represent the electorate’s interests more effectively that way; others thought having an active local member was more important than whether they were in government.</p>
<p>People were asked whether the three key issues that were put forward by the two main candidates (in interviews done for the project which are reported here) were priorities for the electorate.</p>
<p>Hendy’s issues were</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Cost of living, with electricity prices a main contributor rising as a result of the carbon tax.</p></li>
<li><p>Economic management and mishandling of the budget, resulting in the closure of many small businesses in the electorate and the regional impact of national debt.</p></li>
<li><p>Border security, boat arrivals and the disproportionate amount of expenditure on this that could otherwise be used to support regional policies and communities.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Cost of living was seen as a key issue across the spectrum, though while some voters equated the carbon tax with an increased cost of living, many did not make strong links between them and some thought it naive to make that link. One older male, with no voting identification, asked rhetorically: “Does anyone really think the cost of electricity will go down if the carbon tax is removed?”</p>
<p>The cost of living was a priority generally, but Hendy’s policies were predictably more popular with Liberal voters.</p>
<p>Kelly’s priorities were</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Tourism – promoting Eden-Monaro as a multi-seasonal tourist destination with a focus on developing the deep-water cruise ship port at Eden.</p></li>
<li><p>NBN – with its proximity to Canberra Eden-Monaro can be developed into a “Silicon Valley” to put it at the communications and economic forefront of national development.</p></li>
<li><p>Renewable energy - the electorate already has major developments and Kelly has held 18 public forums on clean energy; $1 billion of federal funding has been invested in the region in renewable energy leading to 2300 new jobs.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>There was a broader level of backing for Kelly’s policies from most participants, regardless of which party they identified with. They generally agreed that tourism, NBN and renewable energy were key priorities for the electorate; the policies produced a more positive, forward-looking response, although some hardline Liberal voters disagreed. </p>
<p>Some scepticism was tossed in from non-supporters. A Liberal-voting male said: “Yes, these are priorities, but I am not sure I would want Kelly to become involved in anything that is important”, while a Green voter remarked “These are good things, but I can’t help but giggle a bit on the inside when I read that Mike imagines Eden-Monaro as some kind of ‘Silicon Valley’”.</p>
<p>People were also asked, in an open-ended question, to nominate their three most important issues for Eden-Monaro and (separately) for them personally.</p>
<p>Heath (nominated by 11 participants) ranked as their most important issue for Eden-Monaro, followed by renewable energy (8), jobs (7), and the economy (7).</p>
<p>For participants personally, health (15) again came first, then education (7), cost of living (7) and jobs (5).</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27788/original/bfvnnhsn-1374406629.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27788/original/bfvnnhsn-1374406629.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27788/original/bfvnnhsn-1374406629.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27788/original/bfvnnhsn-1374406629.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27788/original/bfvnnhsn-1374406629.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27788/original/bfvnnhsn-1374406629.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27788/original/bfvnnhsn-1374406629.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>There were no strong differences along partisan lines on health.</p>
<p>Although education was an issue for some, participants who identified as Liberal were more likely to nominate the economy, job creation and cost of living as their most important issues for Eden-Monaro and them personally.</p>
<p>In contrast, while cost of living and jobs were issues, those who identified as Labor and Green were more likely to nominate renewable energy, education, the environment and NBN as the most important issues for the electorate and them personally.</p>
<p><strong>THE RESEARCH:</strong> The Eden-Monaro online focus group is conducted by Essential Research (with recruitment by Your Source) for the University of Canberra’s ANZSOG Institute for Governance in conjunction with The Conversation.</p>
<p>The group’s views will be tracked up to the election.</p>
<p>Thirty participants took part in the discussion last Wednesday and Thursday. This was the third of six planned discussions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16259/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With speculation reaching fever pitch about election timing, voters from the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro are strongly urging Kevin Rudd to call the poll quickly. The University of Canberra, in conjunction…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/151622013-06-16T20:25:45Z2013-06-16T20:25:45ZThe Eden-Monaro project: campaign laboratory<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25478/original/4strmkkd-1371099247.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Labor's incumbent Mike Kelly is facing a "ground war" against Liberal challenger Peter Hendy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Australian Department of Defence</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In planning their campaigns to win the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro on September 14, strategists in the head offices of both major parties are likely to be preparing both an “air war” and a “ground war”.</p>
<p>The “air war” means aerial bombardment: reaching masses of voters via national electronic advertising. The “ground war” means hand to hand combat: contacting voters one by one on their door steps, in their letter boxes, and in the streets, shopping centres and bus stops of their community.</p>
<p>Where the “air war” will feature the prime minister and the opposition leader, the “ground war” will be more about the local candidates - Labor’s incumbent Mike Kelly and Liberal challenger Peter Hendy. The “air war”, for Eden Monaro, emerges from the TV studios in Canberra; the “ground war” will be fought on the streets of Cooma, Cobargo and Queanbeyan.</p>
<p>The military metaphors are perhaps especially relevant in Eden-Monaro, given the high number of defence force voters in Eden-Monaro, and Kelly’s army background and defence portfolio.</p>
<p>But in 2013 the language of air and ground wars accurately conveys the state-of-the-art practice of election campaigning in marginal seats around Australia. In studying the election in Eden-Monaro we are studying a laboratory in which party Head Offices are constantly experimenting with and refining their campaign techniques.</p>
<p>“Air wars” became fixed features of election campaigning in the 1970s, when the national party Head Offices first used the recently formed national TV networks to blanket the nation with their electronic messages of change. </p>
<p>These high-cost, high-visibility, high-emotion campaigns, executed for head office by professional advertisers and market researchers, were effective because they could efficiently reach the party’s safe seats as well as the marginal seats needed to assemble a majority in the House of Representatives. They tended to make local campaigning irrelevant, as candidates could rely on the big national factors to drive their campaigns.</p>
<p>Air warfare remains a critical part of modern campaigning, built around TV and radio commercials and, increasingly, internet videos that feature the parties’ parliamentary leaders, promote their policies and promises, and attack their opponents. Much of the media reporting of election campaigns remains fixated with this type of activity. </p>
<p>But over the decades, such campaigns have declined in effectiveness (though not in cost) as network TV audiences fragmented; campaign strategists moved to supplement them with more focussed efforts targeted at specific voters and specific seats. Equipped with ever more granular market research and census data, strategists could identify the critical undecided voters with greater precision. From the late 1980s, both parties were allocating more and more resources to marginal seat campaigning, heralding the rise of the “ground war” campaign style.</p>
<p>Where the air war is all high-visibility – who wants to hide an advertising campaign? - the ground war tends to be more covert. It is a boots on the ground type of campaigning: campaign workers (volunteer and paid) are required on the spot, to door-knock voters in their homes, distribute leaflets, run sausage sizzles, collect signatures on petitions, organise postal votes in nursing homes, and the like. On Election Day itself, armies of volunteers, up before dawn to festoon voting booths with bunting, will distribute How to Vote cards.</p>
<p>To secure victory in Eden-Monaro, both Kelly and Hendy can be expected to deploy all the tactics of the “ground war” style. Indeed unlike a marginal seat in, say, Western Sydney, which falls within the major Sydney TV markets, Eden-Monaro is a rural seat and lacks a major TV market (except whatever spills over from the ACT). So the “ground war” will be proportionately more important in Eden-Monaro.</p>
<p>Direct mail is the weapon of choice for this kind of integrated campaign. The letters seem personalised and localised but are the product of a highly centralised campaign. Both major parties maintain complex data bases which link the electoral roll with census data, phone canvassing data and other data sources. Using this information, correspondence to individuals can be tailored to reflect their interests and opinions.</p>
<p>As an opposition candidate, Peter Hendy is likely to use direct mail as a simple and direct way of introducing himself and his family and to highlight local issues of concern. As a government MP, Mike Kelly is likely to highlight services he’s provided to the electorate using map-style leaflets - showing a map of Eden-Monaro with arrows locating government spending projects such as roads, GP Super Clinics, schools built under Building the Education Revolution program, and regional development initiatives.</p>
<p>It would be easy – but I think, wrong – to see the ground war campaign in 2013 as representing a revival or throw-back to some 1940s golden age, with local candidates addressing public meetings on street-corners. What we are seeing instead is the extension and reinforcement of a centralised campaign managed out of the parties’ professional head offices.</p>
<p>As one national party official expressed it in a recent research project on campaign professionalism: “the campaign has to be run top down and bottom up, and completely integrated”.</p>
<p>Accordingly, bottom up ground war campaigns are actually designed, planned, funded and often staffed by the national head office, and managed along lines set out in campaign manuals written and issued by head office. The ground war elaborates and reinforces the themes and arguments of the air war: local deviation from the central plan is discouraged; consistency is valued over innovation; and amateurism is tolerated but not extolled.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15162/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Mills does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In planning their campaigns to win the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro on September 14, strategists in the head offices of both major parties are likely to be preparing both an “air war” and a “ground war…Stephen Mills, Lecturer, Graduate School of Government, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/152272013-06-16T20:25:02Z2013-06-16T20:25:02ZThe Eden-Monaro project: Voters tired of leadership circus<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25621/original/fcdq2gk3-1371372501.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The focus group results deliver Mike Kelly a mixed report card.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Labor caucus members return to Canberra uncertain who will be PM at the end of this final fortnight parliamentary sitting, voters in the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro are saying to them: just sort your situation out – we are over it.</p>
<p>In a discussion last week, most in the University of Canberra-The Conversation focus group thought that Kevin Rudd should lead Labor into the election, because he was more popular than Julia Gillard.</p>
<p>In general however, people were exhausted by Labor’s internal struggle. Across the political spectrum they were tired of the “circus”, fueled by the media, and the way the leadership rumblings distract from what they see as more important things.</p>
<p>“It’s a joke”, said a younger soft Greens supporter. “It’s like a high school popularity competition. I think Rudd would do a better job however; he seems more level headed, if that’s possible”.</p>
<p>These leadership antics trigger schoolyard references. “I think they carry on worse than school kids. Kevin Rudd should be there, as we the people put him there”, said a soft Labor voter from coastal Merimbula. In contrast, a Liberal from the same area, also a middle aged woman, believed Gillard “should be forced to face the election – but the Labor party look very silly, like school children bickering, and will lose.”</p>
<p>An older Liberal supporter said that if children acted like this “we would send them to the naughty corner”.</p>
<p>Liberal voters just want the election to happen to end all the carry on. There is a feeling the ongoing leadership struggle diminishes Australia’s international standing.</p>
<p>One Liberal said: “Kevin Rudd was kicked out because he could not get along with his own party. Now desperation times as Gillard self destructs. Why would it be better with Rudd, as the same thing will happen again? Bring on an early election! We are becoming the laughing stock of the world.” A soft Liberal voter just had the plea, “Make the noise go away. I’m sick of the noise”.</p>
<p>ALP voters are disheartened, confused and want resolution. Soft independent and hard Labor and Green voters are very concerned about the prospect of Tony Abbott becoming PM. But even if the leadership changed to Rudd, they expect Labor to lose the election.</p>
<p>A Greens supporter from Berridale said that neither Gillard nor Rudd seemed to have Labor’s best interests at heart - they appeared “more interested in their own personal war.”</p>
<p>The main thing Labor voters wanted was certainty and an end to the bickering, so there could be a focus on what Labor had done.</p>
<p>Regardless of how they vote or who they prefer as Labor leader, participants saw the leadership battle as very damaging to the ALP. A Cooma woman said: “Keep Julia Gillard - stuffing around with leadership speculation just destabilises things”.</p>
<p>As the “hung parliament” of the last three years nears its end, people’s retrospective on it strongly reflects partisanship.</p>
<p>Labor and Greens backers were generally supportive. A Queanbeyan Labor supporter pointed to achievements: raising of the tax free threshold, and other measures to help the low paid and pensioners, as well as the carbon tax.</p>
<p>But a Queanbeyan Liberal argued that “being ‘hung’ has been disruptive - it all seems ‘up in the air’”; another Liberal said the parliament was an embarrassment – the government having to make deals with the independents to pass legislation “holds the country to ransom”.</p>
<p>One Liberal supporter didn’t see any impact (“everything seems to be running the same as it always does, plenty of arguing and not enough action in the best interests of the people”), but an unaligned male believed it has “caused too much bitterness”.</p>
<p>Liberals thought the independents and Greens had excessive power and felt another election should have been held immediately.</p>
<p>“The Greens and the independents got just a very tiny portion of the vote, yet they have managed to inflict their wacky views on the whole country – to its detriment,” said an older man from Narooma. A male from Sunshine Bay thought “this hung parliament is one of the worst things to happen to any Australian government ever!”</p>
<p>Those identifying as Labor, Green or independent voters were more positive, while recognising the complications of the situation. One saw it as “a great wake up call to the major parties”; another said “I wish we had more independents because I feel that they add a voice that is more representative of their electorate”, though it made it more difficult to get policies through. An ALP supporter thought that “the lack of any significant majority has probably made Labor a little too conservative in their policy on issues such as environment”.</p>
<p>Asked what was happening locally in Eden-Monaro, where Labor sits on a 4.2% margin, few felt the campaign there was in full swing and no one had been inundated with information – to the relief of many. But there have been signs of activity.</p>
<p>A Queanbeyan Liberal voter reported: “Certain candidates somehow seem to have got my email address and I have been getting regular emails”, while Liberal candidate Pater Hendy’s street stall had been spotted, and his mail outs noticed.</p>
<p>Voters across the political divide saw local member Mike Kelly as a reasonably effective local member, although there some cynicism too. “He’s mastered the ability to tell people what they want to hear and then do nothing about it whilst telling people he’s doing everything he can”, said one non-aligned voter.</p>
<p>Criticisms went to his relationship with industries and towns - he is viewed as an urban rather than a rural member. A Liberal supporter from Eden said Kelly has worked to get funding for a new Bega Hospital but “in my local area of far, far south coast he has angered many with his complete misunderstanding of relevant issues. We are struggling with cut backs in the timber and fishing industries. Come visit us and see all the empty shop fronts and our local Catholic primary school which is sitting shut and forlorn”.</p>
<p>Hendy, running for the first time in the seat, is not well known to those in the group. The couple that did appear to know him or had met him were not favourable to him.</p>
<p>One male described him as “a policy wonk more suited to being a political staffer which he was for many years, than an elected representative”. A Greens voter who had met him at the Cooma show and asked some questions left with a negative impression. “His attitude was condescending and as soon as he realised I was not there to praise him he turned quite nasty.”</p>
<p>Greens candidate Catherine Moore has made little impact, although she’s stood previously. A Liberal from Crestwood. a suburb of Queanbeyan, said: “Catherine Moore standing AGAIN: Never hear from her, and when one is at the polling booth, her how-to-vote cards are usually under a brick for the people to pick up”.</p>
<p>Since the the group’s previous discussion in May, a new candidate has come onto the scene. Mayor of Cooma Dean Lynch is standing for billionaire Clive Palmer’s Palmer United Party. Most hadn’t heard of his announcement; only a couple of people who live in the Cooma area knew of it.</p>
<p>A Greens supporter who lives there said “town opinion seems divided about him. He was elected mayor by the councillors not the voters. He owns a lot of property in Cooma. I think Lynch will generate some votes in Cooma – at least he’s a candidate people know – but hopefully not anywhere else. It’s good to have another candidate. Adds variety”.</p>
<p>A non-aligned voter from Moruya was “not happy that he is staying on as mayor – he should do one thing, not both,” but a soft Green supporter from Berridale thought he’s “a great candidate as he is a fantastic mayor who always has time for locals.”</p>
<p>As for the Palmer exercise generally: one Liberal’s judgement was that “Clive Palmer’s a bit of a goose. Another candidate may offer something to those who are sick of Labor/Liberal fighting. But I would think preferences would go to the Liberals. Our experience of independents in the sitting parliament should warn us off voting for one this time around”.</p>
<p>Overall, the Palmer party’s arrival wasn’t seen as something that would improve politics or outcomes in the local electorate. It was another entrant into the “show” and so inclined to reinforce many voters’ disillusionment, which in general continues to be as strong as in the May discussion.</p>
<p>When people were asked about their seat’s “bellwether” status – it has been aligned with the government of the day for four decades - having a member who was in government was felt to be more important than having a good local member. This reflected voters’ perceptions that their issues were national rather than local.</p>
<p>But there were differences between those in urban centres and rural towns, with those in the smaller places feeling overlooked and wanting preference for their local needs.</p>
<p>“I vote nationally on the party’s policies and performance. The local member could be bugs bunny, if they represent the party I want”, said a Queanbeyan Liberal voter.</p>
<p>Others felt it was important their local MP was in government so decisions made would reflect local as well as national interests. A Family First supporter from Cooma said: “You can have a good local candidate but if he is not in government he is pretty powerless.”</p>
<p>A Liberal-supporting woman injected a touch of cynicism into her assessment that being a bellwether seat was better than not.</p>
<p>“I think it keeps Eden-Monaro from being forgotten by having a member of the government of the day. But it doesn’t appear to do much other than keep us remembered, as far as I can tell.”</p>
<p><strong>The Eden-Monaro online focus group is conducted by Essential Research (with recruitment by Your Source) for the University of Canberra’s ANZSOG Institute for Governance in conjunction with The Conversation. The group’s views will be tracked up to the election. Thirty participants took part in the discussion last Wednesday and Thursday.</strong></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15227/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Labor caucus members return to Canberra uncertain who will be PM at the end of this final fortnight parliamentary sitting, voters in the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro are saying to them: just sort…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/141422013-05-12T20:07:09Z2013-05-12T20:07:09ZThe Eden-Monaro project: voters disappointed with the national leaders and debate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/23535/original/bghzh8sg-1368350116.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Minister for Defence Materiel and Eden-Monaro MP Mike Kelly casts his vote in the 2010 federal election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Stefan Postles</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the election just four months away but the campaigning seeming endless, the view of politics from the marginal Labor seat of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nsw/eden-monaro.htm">Eden-Monaro</a> is one of disillusionment.</p>
<p>Regardless of gender, age or voting intention, a common theme in qualitative research conducted last week for the University of Canberra’s Eden-Monaro Project, being done in conjunction with The Conversation, found disappointment among voters with the quality of leadership and the nature of political discussion.</p>
<p>There was a lack of engagement with politics - despite strong levels of concern with employment and access to public services. With a few exceptions – those with an interest in particular policy areas – most had only minimal interest in following the current activities of the leaders and their parties. What they saw and heard from the news media just reinforced their disappointment.</p>
<p>One “soft Liberal” voter in his early 30s from Queanbeyan put it this way: “I guess I follow politics the way most people follow the weather. On any given day I’ll take a look to check that it is not ‘raining’ (that something big is not going on that I’d like to be, or should be, interested in).”</p>
<p>Confirming their low ratings in the numerous quantitative polls, the discussion reflected that neither leader is liked. Some women who identified with Labor or Greens respected Julia Gillard, seeing her as intelligent and sincere and concerned about the country’s future. But some of these participants also thought she looked aloof and did not communicate with the public effectively.</p>
<p>A middle aged Labor voter from Tuross Heads said Gillard was a good leader but was playing the “female” card too often, adding that she should make up with Kevin Rudd to outwit the opposition. An older female Labor voter from Queanbeyan believed she had done some great things, such as the national disability scheme, but “she comes across as cold”.</p>
<p>Liberal voters thought her bullying and said she broke promises. An older female from Eden described her as a “walking disaster” while a middle aged woman said “she has not done anything well except go against what she has said”.</p>
<p>Regardless of party, people tended mostly to be very critical of Tony Abbott, seeing him as incapable of leading the country, a poor communicator, too negative and without policies. There was concern about the country’s future under him.</p>
<p>A soft Liberal voter said he had “squandered the opportunities afforded to him. Rather than stand up for something he just tries to drag down the government all the time”, while another voter who identified with the Liberals said: “Tony Abbott has only done a fair job. He needs to be more positive”.</p>
<p>But some who identified as Liberal thought that despite failings Abbott was a good opposition leader, consulted with his party and the public well, and would be a good PM. A middle aged woman admired “Tony’s style but he has had some moments where his mouth engages before he thinks through what he is saying. I like his honesty” but “I think he also will be on the defensive between now and the election and not progressing issues like he should be”. One Liberal praised his making the disability scheme “a non-election issue” by forcing Gillard to pass the legislation before parliament rises.</p>
<p>In terms of their vote, some saw leadership as more important than party in influencing them; for others, it was the reverse. Certain people felt they didn’t have an effective choice – there were really only two parties to select from and they disliked both leaders.</p>
<p>A Green voter from near Braidwood lamented that “unfortunately our federal voting laws mean we ultimately have to vote for one of the two major parties … It comes down to deciding which major party will do the least damage”. A soft Liberal voter complained: “A vote for Julia is a vote for a puppet. A vote for Tony is a vote for Tony… Personally voting for Tony puts a bad taste in my mouth but I don’t want to vote Labor either.”</p>
<p>Critical of Labor but totally turned off by Abbott, an undecided woman in her 30s confessed: “At this stage I’m thinking about handing in a blank ballot form.”</p>
<p>Talking about the best and worst things both sides had done over the last three years, people were generally more negative in their responses about what the Liberals had done and more positive about some of Labor’s policies, although they divided on party lines.</p>
<p>“Labor’s best” included the NBN, the disability scheme, Gonski, paid parental leave; its worst were the carbon tax and “party politics”.</p>
<p>The opposition’s best were support for the NDIS and promising to repeal the carbon tax; its worst were Tony Abbott, its NBN performance and the fact it “stands for nothing”.</p>
<p>Most thought the Liberals would win the election, although there concern about the prospect of an Abbott government. A soft Liberal speculated: “I don’t know that the [Coalition] government will then know who they are or what they stand for and we will be left with a bunch of chickens scratching in the dirt trying to figure out what it is they are trying to achieve”.</p>
<p>But people with a clear intention to vote Liberal thought there would be minimal cuts to good government programs, and wanted the Greens to lose their Senate balance of power.</p>
<p>Local MP Mike Kelly was well regarded by people, irrespective of their party leanings; he was seen as understanding local issues. People did not know much about the Liberals’ Peter Hendy; when they were aware of him, they tended to believe he came across as abrasive.</p>
<p>A soft Liberal voter said: “Mike Kelly is very well known whereas Peter Hendy seems to have a lower profile. Whilst I lean to the Liberals, Mike Kelly is such a good speaker he could sway my vote”.</p>
<p>Locally, people had so far seen little political advertising in their area; if they had got anything it tended to go in the bin.</p>
<p>There was general agreement what people thought the most important issues to them – cost of living, employment, health, education and public transport.</p>
<p>As the group facilitator reported: “These issues were seen to be applicable nationally but in a very localised way. Simply put, access to services and coping with increased cost of living while dealing with less job security, availability of hours or employment opportunity. The lack of services and employment opportunities was seen as part of the disadvantage of living in a rural and regional area”.</p>
<p>“Wages are lower and full time work is difficult to find, yet it’s quite expensive to live around here”, said a female undecided voter from Millingandi, while a Liberal from Eden said that “health care is a big issue … we have to travel for any major treatment”. From another area a soft Liberal voter said that “health care locally is an issue with not enough beds and an abysmal mental health service”.</p>
<p>Looking towards Tuesday’s budget, voters sent the strong message that spending should be cut to find savings. They don’t want the government to spend money that it doesn’t have.</p>
<p>They are not anticipating much good news. As an undecided voter put it: “They made their bed, now they’re gonna make us all lie in it. I’m not expecting it to be terribly comfortable”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/14142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the election just four months away but the campaigning seeming endless, the view of politics from the marginal Labor seat of Eden-Monaro is one of disillusionment. Regardless of gender, age or voting…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/141182013-05-12T20:06:10Z2013-05-12T20:06:10ZThe Eden-Monaro project: the first report<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/23533/original/tkfxnzp4-1368347583.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Eden Monaro is currently held by Mike Kelly, Minister for Defence Materiel.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In David Williamson’s satirical play “Don’s Party” based around the 1969 federal election night, <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nsw/eden-monaro.htm">Eden-Monaro</a> gets a mention, among the early signs of a big swing to Labor.</p>
<p>At that poll, the seat <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_1969">returned to ALP hands</a> and to its former MP Allan Fraser, who had held it from 1943 to 1966. But the national swing fell short of installing a Whitlam government. The victory in Eden-Monaro (a seat that dates from federation) turned out to be one of the portents of the national result three years on.</p>
<p>This seat, which the University of Canberra’s <a href="http://www.governanceinstitute.edu.au/">ANZSOG Institute for Governance</a> and The Conversation will track from now to the election, is regarded as a “bellwether” because it has been held by the government of the day at every election since 1972.</p>
<p>For forty years, as the country has gone so has this electorate in south-east NSW, which stretches from the border of the ACT to the south coast, where many Canberrans holiday and quite a few spend their retirement.</p>
<p>Strikingly, the winning two party-preferred vote in Eden-Monaro and nationally have not differed by more than 4.4% in any of these last 16 elections.</p>
<p>Electorally, Eden-Monaro has a taste of many things. Big and small towns (including Cooma, centre for the construction of the Snowy Mountains Hydro scheme), grazing and dairying country, snow regions as well as coastal areas.</p>
<p>The diversity does not, however, make the seat a microcosm for the nation. Most Australians live in major cities but this electorate does not contain one. It is lower than average in ethnic diversity, with few residents speaking languages other than English (particularly Asian languages).</p>
<p>The fast-growing town of Queanbeyan (almost 38,000 in 2011) represents 28% of the electorate, compared with 22.5% a decade earlier.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://books.google.com.au/books/about/Politics_in_Eden_Monaro.html?id=ysEJAAAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y">Politics in Eden-Monaro</a> (1958) D.W. Rawson and Susan M. Holtzinger described Queanbeyan (population 7500) as filling “the role of general maid-of-all-work to Canberra”. These days, it is sometimes referred to as “Struggletown”, in comparison with its more lavishly-resourced big neighbour.</p>
<p>But while it may feel put down by the political class, in recent times Queanbeyan has enjoyed a special limelight. As out-and-about political campaigning has continued throughout this hung parliament Queanbeyan has become a backdrop for many appearances, especially by opposition leader Tony Abbott, who when in Canberra regularly nips over the border to appear at this or that small business establishment.</p>
<figure>
<iframe id="tc-infographic-207" class="tc-infographic" height="600" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/207/6c386ca25298d783951c6a957e795408df232201/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></figure>
<p><em><a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/207/6c386ca25298d783951c6a957e795408df232201/site/index.html">Click here</a> to open in new window or republish. The interactive map provides a snapshot of Eden Monaro using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/census?opendocument&navpos=10">2011 Census</a>. The electorate is shown here broken into small statistical regions defined by the ABS. This fine-grained spatial data reveals variations in age, income, employment and other measures across the electorate. Income here is gross income per household per week; participation is defined as the percentage of the population either in work, or seeking work. Visualisation by <a href="http://mtchl.net/">Mitchell Whitelaw</a>, <a href="http://www.canberra.edu.au/">University of Canberra</a>. Built using <a href="http://d3js.org/">d3</a>.</em></p>
<p>Queanbeyan consistently records the strongest Labor vote of the major towns in Eden-Monaro; since 1996 Labor’s two-party preferred vote in its booths has never dipped below 54%. The town’s growth has implications for Eden-Monaro’s “bellwether” status; if the pattern continues it could transform into a Labor-leaning seat.</p>
<p>The most common source of employment in the Eden-Monaro electorate is “public administration and safety” (almost 15.2 % compared with the national average of nearly 6.9%). Most of Eden-Monaro’s public administration and safety workers live in Queanbeyan (62.4%) where the closeness to Canberra encourages access to public service jobs.</p>
<p>The electorate contains a high proportion of older people and retirees. Among those of working age, nearly a quarter are aged over 55 and not in the labour force, compared with only about one fifth nationally. Eden-Monaro also has a higher percentage of people than the nation in each age category over 45 years and considerably lower percentages aged 20 to 39 years.</p>
<p>The seat has been represented since 2007 by <a href="http://www.mikekelly.alp.org.au/">Mike Kelly</a>, a former army officer and legal specialist who had a number of deployments including to Iraq. Kelly served in several parliamentary secretary roles (defence support; water; agriculture, fisheries and forestry; and defence) before being appointed in February as Minister for Defence Materiel.</p>
<p>In the 2010 election he defeated a high profile former Liberal staffer, David Gazard. This time his opponent will be <a href="http://www.nsw.liberal.org.au/peter-hendy">Peter Hendy</a>, currently on the staff of deputy opposition leader Julie Bishop, who worked for Peter Reith in the Howard government. Hendy has lived in Queanbeyan for more than a decade. He started as a cadet economist with Treasury, and ran the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry for six years.</p>
<p>Both Kelly and Hendy have PhDs.</p>
<p>The Greens candidate is <a href="http://www.facebook.com/GreensEdenMonaro">Catherine Moore</a>, a serial candidate: she stood for this seat in 2010 and previously several times for the NSW parliament. An artist, she lives in Braidwood and has served on the Palerang council.</p>
<p>In that election, in which there were eight candidates, Labor scored a primary vote of 43.6%; the Liberals 41.8% and the Greens 9.7%. Kelly defeated his Liberal opponent on a two-party vote of 54.2% to 45.8%. The electorate is on a margin of 4.2%.</p>
<p>Over coming months we will bring you reports and interviews from the campaign. <a href="http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/">Essential Research</a> will also track the mood and opinion of a group of 50 Eden-Monaro voters selected from the Your Source panel: this will be done through a series of online discussions between now and the September 14 election. The group will discuss local and national issues, the candidates, political parties, policies and the campaign.</p>
<p>The first discussion, reported <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-eden-monaro-project-voters-disappointed-with-the-national-leaders-and-debate-14142">here</a>, was held last week, with 22 participants.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/14118/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In David Williamson’s satirical play “Don’s Party” based around the 1969 federal election night, Eden-Monaro gets a mention, among the early signs of a big swing to Labor. At that poll, the seat returned…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraBrendan McCaffrie, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.