tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/peter-robinson-9855/articlesPeter Robinson – The Conversation2015-12-17T17:39:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/524732015-12-17T17:39:55Z2015-12-17T17:39:55ZFive things you need to know about Northern Ireland’s new leader<p>Northern Ireland is to have a new first minister in January, in the form of Arlene Foster, the new leader of the pro-UK Democratic Unionist Party. Foster will take over from her DUP colleague Peter Robinson, who has held the position since 2008.</p>
<p>Her arrival as leader will mark a <a href="http://repository.liv.ac.uk/1657692/">pivotal change</a> for the party and for Northern Ireland. This is what you need to know about the woman taking on the most tumultuous job in British politics.</p>
<h2>She’s a she!</h2>
<p>Foster is the first woman to lead Northern Ireland – which is certainly worth shouting about given the current gender disparity in the national assembly and at all levels of government.</p>
<p>Over the past 15 years, in local, national and European elections, Northern Ireland has been shamed by the gender parity efforts of the UK’s other devolved institutions.</p>
<p>The Scottish parliament and Welsh Assembly have had an average of 37% and 45% of female elected representatives respectively since 1998. Northern Ireland lags considerably behind at <a href="http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/69/1/93.full?keytype=ref&ijkey=kcpP9Q3QR64Pbjn">just 17%</a>. </p>
<p>One of the main hurdles to gender equality are the conservative gender roles that Foster herself has acknowledged when we interviewed her in 2013:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Inevitably I get asked the question of my children … and what is really frustrating is that you never ask that of any of my male colleagues … I think Northern Ireland is a very conservative society. I think it’s changing and I do think that generally the electorate want to see a reflection back at them of society.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The analysis is spot on. In the 2015 General Election Survey, almost two-thirds (65%) of people in Northern Ireland said they wanted to see more women elected. </p>
<p>During an all woman <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17419166.2014.970826#.VnLP3sCLRhA">focus group</a>, party members referred to Foster as an inspiration and “the champion of women” in the DUP. Let’s see if she will live up to expectation.</p>
<h2>She voted against the Belfast Agreement</h2>
<p>The peace process in Northern Ireland culminated in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/events/good_friday_agreement">Belfast/Good Friday Agreement</a> in 1998. The deal was <a href="http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/fref98.htm">approved by 72%</a> of the population in Northern Ireland – but Foster wasn’t one of them.</p>
<p>She <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/fostering-ambition-we-profile-politician-arlene-foster-31226463.html">opposed the vague arrangements</a> being made for IRA decommissioning, the early release of paramilitary prisoners and reforms to policing.</p>
<p>Having negotiated further on some of these key issues in subsequent agreements, including Sinn Fein’s support for policing in the region, the DUP entered <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-northern-irish-politics-40443">power sharing</a> with its historic republican enemy in 2007.</p>
<p>Interaction between the two governing parties remain minimal and relations are tense, but Foster has said that the difficulties between the two parties must be overcome since both have a mandate to govern. Pragmatism, it seems, trumps the politics of dislike.</p>
<h2>She used to be in the Ulster Unionist Party</h2>
<p>In 2004 Foster was among a group of politicians who defected from the Ulster Unionist Party to the DUP. She brought many grass roots supporters with her. One local party member exclaimed at the time: “Wherever Arlene goes, I follow”.</p>
<p>Between 1998 and 2006 the Belfast Agreement acted as the catalyst for a <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/3419253.stm">mass defection</a> from the UUP to the DUP. The DUP was presenting itself as a party of protest and pledged to make sure Northern Ireland remained part of the UK. The UUP was seen as conceding too much to Sinn Fein at the expense of the unionist community. </p>
<p>The DUP’s defence of the union remains its main appeal – something Foster, as a former UUP member, will be well aware of. </p>
<h2>She voted against same-sex marriage</h2>
<p>The DUP is largely conservative and greatly influenced by Evangelical Christian beliefs. The UUP defectors tend to be less religious but the bulk of the party continues to oppose same-sex marriage and abortion.</p>
<p>Two-thirds of DUP party members say they think <a href="http://www.ippr.org/juncture/between-money-and-morality-how-would-northern-irelands-dup-approach-post-election-deal-making">homosexuality is wrong</a> and the party (including Foster) <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-ten-years-of-civil-partnerships-we-still-arent-sure-what-they-mean-or-who-theyre-for-50644">blocked a vote to legalise same-sex marriage in November</a>, even though it had been approved by the assembly. This position appears out of step with public opinion in Northern Ireland, since only 28% in the Northern Ireland Election Survey opposed same-sex marriage. </p>
<p>When it comes to abortion, four-fifths of the party membership are against legalisation in Northern Ireland. This, again, leaves the DUP in a difficult position, since a high court judge <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-court-just-made-a-landmark-ruling-for-abortion-rights-in-northern-ireland-51520">recently ruled</a> the current law on abortion in Northern Ireland is “incompatible” with human rights law and that the almost total ban on access in Northern Ireland should at least be relaxed in cases of rape, incest and fatal foetal abnormalities. Less than a third of the Northern Irish population <a href="http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk/projects?ref=ES/L007320/1">disagree</a> that abortion should be legalised. </p>
<p>While the DUP remains relatively united against any change on either of these issues, Foster faces the tricky task of justifying its stance to the broader population.</p>
<h2>She’s not entirely new to the job</h2>
<p>Foster has in fact held the position of first minister before, replacing Robinson for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/14/peter-robinson-rejects-1bn-property-sell-off-payment-accusations-northern-ireland-first-minister-nama-deal-us-firm-cerberus">six weeks</a> as acting first minister in 2010 while he dealt with allegations about his finances.</p>
<p>During this time, she steered the DUP ship through significant political wrangling. Her appointment signalled that the DUP had faith in her political leadership. The looming election is an opportunity for Foster to assert her authority and set the tone for her tenure as party leader.</p>
<p>Her first tasks will be to work out how to accommodate a burgeoning DUP membership base with a broadening spectrum of attitudes, how to take on her former colleagues (and now main political rivals) at the UUP, and how to shore up the electoral gains made under her predecessor.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maire Braniff receives funding from Arts and Humanities Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophie Whiting does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>She defected from the UUP to the DUP, and now Arlene Foster will be the first woman to run Northern Ireland. Here’s where she stands on the big issues.Sophie Whiting, Lecturer in Politics, University of BathMaire Braniff, Lecturer in Sociology, Ulster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/472462015-09-11T13:18:45Z2015-09-11T13:18:45ZExplainer: why did the government fall apart in Northern Ireland?<p>“Cloud and rain for Northern Ireland” said the weather forecast on the radio just before coverage switched to the resignation of Peter Robinson, the first minister of Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>The political weather has been quite grim for many months in this part of the UK. Northern Ireland’s two main parties – Robinson’s <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11565057/Everything-you-need-to-know-about-Nigel-Dodds-and-the-Democratic-Unionist-Party.html">Democratic Unionist Party</a> and <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/ira/etc/cron.html">Sinn Féin </a>– govern together as part of a <a href="http://education.niassembly.gov.uk/post_16/snapshots_of_devolution/gfa/power_sharing">power sharing agreement</a> but have reached an impasse.</p>
<p>The two sides have been arguing for some time over welfare cuts and have failed to agree on a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jun/02/northern-ireland-crisis-talks-fail-resolve-stand-off-welfare-reforms">budget</a> as a result.</p>
<p>Conditions then turned stormy when the local police said members of the IRA were involved in the murder of Kevin McGuigan in Belfast in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-34026678">August</a>. The IRA was supposed to have been disbanded and <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/4283444.stm">disarmed</a> in 2005 so the suggestion that it is still active – and still possesses some lethal capacity – was unacceptable to Robinson and the DUP, as well as the smaller Ulster Unionist Party.</p>
<p>Sinn Féin, which advocates for the reunification of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland, is closely associated with the IRA. Many Sinn Féin members and representatives, including deputy first minister Martin McGuinness, have served as IRA volunteers.</p>
<p>This close relationship has long been a source of contention for those parties who wish to see Northern Ireland remain part of the United Kingdom, not least the Democratic Unionist Party. One key condition for the DUP <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/sinn-fein-and-dup-strike-powersharing-deal-28396738.html">entering into government</a> with Sinn Féin in 2007 was the latter’s commitment to achieving their goals through entirely democratic means, removing the gun from Northern Irish politics.</p>
<p>Any association between a coalition partner and an armed paramilitary organisation would not be tolerated by unionists, so the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/northernireland/11853171/Kevin-McGuigan-murder-Sinn-Feins-Bobby-Storey-arrested-in-hunt-for-killers-of-ex-IRA-man.html">arrest</a> of a senior Sinn Féin member in connection with the McGuigan murder caused consternation among the unionist ranks and sent power-sharing into a tail-spin. </p>
<h2>Storming out of Stormont</h2>
<p>Robinson and all his ministers except one resigned from the power sharing executive. Pressing pause on power-sharing, it was <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-devolution-in-turmoil-as-dup-ministers-quit-posts-31517904.html">argued</a>, would provide the space for cross-party talks (overseen by both the British and Irish governments) to clarify the current status of the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/4648387.stm">IRA</a> and its relationship with Sinn Féin.</p>
<p>The resignations could trigger an election, although it is unclear whether they will. Robinson’s decision to keep <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/2015-09-10/arlene-foster-takes-over-as-northern-ireland-first-minister-after-peter-robinson-quits/">one minister</a> in place, in the form of Arlene Foster, essentially keeps power-sharing going. Foster, the DUP finance minister, will act as first minister while talks continue.</p>
<p>Robinson has done this out of fear that the nationalist parties would exploit the political <a href="http://www.theweek.co.uk/65156/northern-ireland-crisis-what-is-happening-at-stormont">vacuum</a> created by the current crisis (and the DUP’s absence from the executive) to make decisions it would have opposed. </p>
<p>To borrow a cricketing analogy, Robinson has left Foster there as something of a <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cricket/rules_and_equipment/4183598.stm">nightwatchman</a>. Her role is to defend the wicket while the rest of the team resides in the clubhouse, removed from the field of play.</p>
<h2>The heart of the matter</h2>
<p>In part, the DUP’s retention of the financial brief illustrates that the underlying <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/finance-minister-blasts-sinn-feins-economic-lunacy-31183481.html">division</a> between the DUP and Sinn Féin on economic issues is at the heart of the current crisis. Disagreement on economic issues – a stalemate which is rapidly exhausting the region’s coffers – has eroded what little trust existed between the parties. The power-sharing government, mired in such a toxic atmosphere, could simply not sustain a further crisis over links between the IRA and Sinn Féin. </p>
<p>If the current crisis leads to an election, both unionist parties will seek to castigate Sinn Féin for its relationship with the IRA to win votes. And on the nationalist side Sinn Féin will seek to highlight its <a href="http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/33281">anti-austerity economics. </a></p>
<p>Sinn Féin has left-wing economic leanings in Northern Ireland. It has opposed attempts by the DUP to pass <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-to-oppose-welfare-bill-peter-robinson-slams-martin-mcguinness-statement-as-dishonourable-and-hamfisted-31051619.html">welfare reforms</a> in March, arguing they had “acted in bad faith on welfare protections”. </p>
<p>This is important to buttress its political strategy in the Republic of Ireland. Giving in to welfare cuts in the north would leave the party <a href="http://politicalreform.ie/2015/04/22/the-coming-storm-what-will-election-2016-bring-us">vulnerable to criticisms</a> in the south as an election approaches.</p>
<h2>Now what?</h2>
<p>From the perspective of Westminster and Dublin, the “process” part of the peace process has always been crucial. Both governments will push hard for inter-party talks in Northern Ireland to avoid a political vacuum. This vacuum, they fear, could be filled by <a href="http://irishpost.co.uk/easter-rising-centenary-should-give-everybody-cause-for-concern/">dissidents</a> or political spoilers.</p>
<p>And there may yet be the space and time for inter-party talks to succeed. In the crisis-rich landscape of Northern Ireland, political actors have proven themselves highly adept at manoeuvring out of tight corners. Robinson’s decision to keep Foster in place may, in time, prove to be yet another example of such crafty ingenuity.</p>
<p>The problem, however, is that the DUP and and Sinn Féin disagree on a daunting list of issues – and that list is getting longer all the time. Cross-party negotiations would need to address and resolve the status of the IRA, break the deadlock on welfare reform and revisit the other outstanding issues contained in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-30592218">Stormont House Agreement</a>, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/northern-ireland-talks-stumble-over-symbols-of-past-troubles-21719">flags</a>, <a href="http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/11281#.VfK2khFViko">parades</a> and the handling of past <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/apr/07/troubles-crimes-left-unsolved-peter-hain">Troubles-related crimes</a>.</p>
<p>Added to this, the unionist parties have made it clear they want to substantially reform the power-sharing institutions established by the 1998 <a href="http://www.bl.uk/learning/timeline/item105778.html">Belfast Agreement</a>. Often, a crisis in Northern Ireland is dealt with by bringing in a kindly grey-haired uncle from the <a href="http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/john-kerrys-lifelong-friend-named-us-special-envoy-for-northern-ireland-30682807.html">US</a> to help chair talks. Given the scale of the task, many such ex-politicians and diplomats may be keeping their phones switched off over the coming days.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Garry receives funding the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) as Principal Investigator of the Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 016</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Matthews receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) as a Research Fellow on the Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2016.</span></em></p>First minister Peter Robinson has resigned, casting uncertainty over the future of power sharing.John Garry, Senior Lecturer in Comparative Political Science, Queen's University BelfastNeil Matthews, Research Fellow, School of Politics, International Studies and Philosophy, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/472132015-09-08T14:51:15Z2015-09-08T14:51:15ZNorthern Ireland: how an over-reaction to one murder brought politics to a halt<p>Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has decided to abandon meetings of the Northern Ireland Executive “except in exceptional circumstances” because of the <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/peter-robinson-no-further-meeting-of-the-northern-ireland-executive-unless-exceptional-circumstances-31507501.html">alleged involvement of the Provisional IRA</a> in the recent murder of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-33896234">former IRA man Kevin McGuigan</a>. </p>
<p>This is a dramatic move, and it epitomises both the gravity and the absurdity of Northern Ireland’s tense <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-northern-irish-politics-40443">post-conflict politics</a>, which still pits factions who want to stay in the UK (unionists, loyalists and mainly Protestants) against those who want unification with the Republic of Ireland (nationalists, republicans and mainly Catholics) – and in which the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/country_profiles/4172307.stm">distinction</a> between establishment unionists and more militant loyalists is as blurred as ever.</p>
<p>Since the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/august/31/newsid_3605000/3605348.stm">first ceasefires in 1994</a>, Northern Irish politics has been constantly in crisis, so much so that it would be a crisis if there was no crisis. Crises are useful; they provide reluctant parties with face-saving mechanisms, and allow them to stick with the difficult balance of power regardless of their rhetoric. </p>
<p>This paradox would be funny if the stakes weren’t so high. Appeals to ethnic-tribal constituencies whip up emotions in supporters, all to provide an excuse to continue with power-sharing for the sake of peace. </p>
<h2>Off the hook</h2>
<p>On this occasion, the comedy has been ably provided by the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), which has withdrawn its one minister from the executive – the last hurrah of a party that has already <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-34093058">made itself largely irrelevant to the peace process</a> by its lukewarm commitments to working with Sinn Fein. Under Mike Nesbitt, the UUP has tried to out-DUP the DUP in its appeal to traditional unionists – but the DUP is rather good at doing that itself. </p>
<p>What’s more, the UUP managed to let the DUP off the hook by allowing its leader, Peter Robinson, to appear relatively statesmanlike with his suggestion that withdrawal from the executive was <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/aug/31/first-minister-criticises-uup-for-quitting-northern-irelands-power-sharing-deal-ira">the last rather than the first resort</a>.</p>
<p>Even by Northern Ireland’s standards, this is an exceptionally unedifying farce. The DUP has <a href="http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-news/uup-attack-dup-rivals-for-hokey-cokey-stance-on-power-sharing-1-6944616">not yet withdrawn from power-sharing</a>, and the functions of the executive will continue apace behind the scenes.</p>
<p>And in the midst of this faux crisis about the re-emergence of the Provisional IRA, no-one has mentioned the evidence of the rude health and enviable wealth of the loyalist paramilitaries. </p>
<h2>One crisis too many?</h2>
<p>In recent years, mainstream unionist politicians have drawn flack for sharing platforms with members of the Ulster Defence Association and Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF), particularly during <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20651163">flag disputes</a>. The UVF is an organisation <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/murder-of-loyalist-bobby-moffet-is-to-show-uvf-wont-be-messed-around-28538782.html">allegedly responsible for one murder</a> and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/nov/18/ulster-volunteer-force-ceasefire-police">several shootings</a> </p>
<p>More than that, unionist politicians actually brought members of loyalist parties aligned to the UVF into the heart of the negotiation process during the short-lived United Unionist Front, which was designed to develop a “graduated response” to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-30387161">impasse on parading</a>. </p>
<p>Nesbitt has even <a href="http://www.irishnews.com/news/2015/08/29/news/nesbitt-defends-loyalist-paramilitary-engagement-244993/">defended his associations with Loyalist paramilitaries</a>. What is good for the goose in Northern Irish politics is not good for the gander.</p>
<p>So far, so ridiculous – but there is something deeply serious at work here too. This is really two crises rolled into one. </p>
<p>Sinn Féin will not agree to a budget because it <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/sep/06/northern-ireland-sinn-fein-westminster-public-sector-welfare-cuts">resists</a> the Cameron government’s prescribed cuts to the welfare bill, and seems perfectly willing to see its Northern Ireland power base collapse to avoid implementing the cuts. The DUP, meanwhile, is all too ready to implement them. </p>
<p>On the face of it, this threatens to utterly collapse the whole power-sharing structure – and the British government’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-34164806">threat</a> to impose the welfare cuts from London, which smacks of a return to direct rule, may well prove one crisis too many. </p>
<p>But of course, it isn’t. If Sinn Féin really did conspire to bring down power-sharing, direct rule would be the likely outcome anyway. This is the apogee of Northern Ireland’s politics: a crisis threatening the very survival of power-sharing is the only way the entrenched parties can manage to coexist without giving up their irreconcilable positions.</p>
<h2>Playing to the gallery</h2>
<p>On top of all this, there’s the question of Kevin McGuigan’s murder and the Provisional IRA – a murky matter made sensitive by a serious unionist over-reaction. </p>
<p>After all, the Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland, who <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/aug/22/psni-provisional-ira-northern-ireland-kevin-mcguigan-republican">believes</a> that the murder involved Provisional IRA members but was not sanctioned by the organisation, has made it clear that he considers the Provisional IRA <a href="http://www.u.tv/News/2015/08/22/IRA-exists-but-not-for-paramilitary-purposes---PSNI-43500">wholly committed to the peace process</a>.</p>
<p>So why, with no serious suggestion that the Provisional IRA planned the murder on an organisational level, are the unionists raising such a ruckus? In one sense, it’s a brazen political ploy. Executive meetings are abandoned, allowing the British government to implement its welfare cuts without the democratic accountability the executive provides.</p>
<p>On another level, the unionists are using the confected IRA threat to resist the normalisation of Northern Ireland’s post-conflict politics. In a recent issue of The Irish News, the commentator <a href="http://www.irishnews.com/opinion/columnists/2015/08/27/news/real-peace-never-part-of-the-plan-in-unionism-243063/">Fionnuala O Connor</a> recognised just how uneasy unionist politicians are with the whole idea of “normal” politics. </p>
<p>Northern Ireland is still dominated by sectarian identity politics, and its leaders play to ethnic-tribal constituencies rather than pursuing any moral vision of a shared society. </p>
<p>The DUP’s goal is less delivering a shared, united community than trumping the UUP – and the spectre of the Provisional IRA serves wonderfully the purpose of reproducing the identity politics of the past. Those who want a better future, it seems, can go hang while the battle over sectarian unionist loyalties rages on.</p>
<p>Herein is Sinn Féin’s problem. The party has not sufficiently convinced enough people that the war is over, which it needs to do if it wants to squash the farcical idea that the Provisional IRA wants to return to war.</p>
<p>The DUP and Sinn Féin need each other, because there is nowhere else for each to go. But even as they both recognise this, they will not admit it. Ethnic tribal divisions still triumph, and prop up a paradoxical status quo – at the cost of a better future for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47213/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Brewer receives funding from The Leverhulme Trust and the ESRC.</span></em></p>Stormont’s parties refuse to conduct politics in any mode besides crisis mode.John Brewer, Professor of Post Conflict Studies, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/408782015-04-28T05:27:52Z2015-04-28T05:27:52ZWhy a Labour deal might be a better bet for the DUP after the election<p>At the launch of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) manifesto, party leader and first minister of Northern Ireland Peter Robinson <a href="http://www.mydup.com/news/article/robinson-rallies-dup-support-in-north-down">spoke of</a> a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” for the province’s voice to be heard at Westminster. </p>
<p>While many commentators have acknowledged the potential importance of a likely eight <a href="http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/events/abstract/72storm.htm">Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)</a> MPs in the next parliament (or possibly nine or ten), most have assumed that their votes will halp David Cameron and the Conservative Party to govern. This is not surprising – but only on the face of it.</p>
<p>The DUP is strong on traditional Tory issues such as defence and law and order, and would welcome a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU. The party’s social conservatism still strikes a chord in at least some Conservative circles, even if any post-election negotiations may still have been complicated by the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/27/jim-wells-resigns-northern-ireland-health-minister">resignation of health minister Jim Wells</a> following his remarks about children being raised by gay parents. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the <a href="http://www.sdlp.ie">Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)</a> has consistently lined up with Labour at Westminster. Having these constitutionalist Irish nationalists in the Labour camp makes it politically harder for the DUP to follow suit. Nevertheless the party’s best option is arguably to offer its support not to the Conservatives, but to Labour – perhaps on a vote-by-vote basis.</p>
<h2>Labour dalliances past</h2>
<p>First, some history. Unionists in Northern Ireland should remember that Labour in government has been kinder to them than the Conservatives. It was the Attlee government <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07907189208406493?journalCode=fips20">that established</a> a harmonious working relationship with the unionists at Stormont to ensure that all the benefits of the welfare state and the NHS were shared by Northern Ireland – <a href="http://www.historyinanhour.com/2012/03/24/re-introduction-of-direct-rule-in-northern-ireland/">then the</a> only part of the UK to possess separate devolved institutions. </p>
<p>In 1949 the Labour government passed the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo6/12-13-14/41">Ireland Act</a> which, in response to the <a href="http://www.historyworld.net/wrldhis/PlainTextHistories.asp?ParagraphID=ofl">declaration</a> of a republic on the part of the south in the same year, cemented the position of Northern Ireland within the UK. The then lord president of the privy council and Labour heir apparent Herbert Morrison enjoyed a particularly <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=eyMeZ_oyEhYC&pg=PA111&lpg=PA111&dq=herbert+morrison+%26+ulster+unionists&source=bl&ots=2eHGr_OQ9N&sig=a-uarxir55uCK5FSOLrwjwJ80zw&hl=en&sa=X&ei=_Fc-VZbsG4r1aoS3gYAE&ved=0CC0Q6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=herbert%20morrison%20%26%20ulster%20unionists&f=false">cordial relationship</a> with the Ulster Unionists, who were more than willing to cash in the credit built up on account of Northern Ireland’s contribution to the allied cause in the war. </p>
<p>Interestingly, Morrison’s grandson, Peter Mandelson, <a href="http://www.seacoastonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20000527/NEWS/305279984&template=printart">was to play</a> a similarly reassuring role in relation to unionists at the time of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/events/good_friday_agreement">Good Friday Agreement</a>. Indeed, Mandelson and the recently deceased <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/20/lord-mason-of-barnsley">Lord Mason</a> would top any unionist list of favourite secretaries of state to have held sway over their affairs since 1972.</p>
<p>It is certainly true that Harold Wilson held a low opinion of Ulster Unionists of any stripe owing to their voting behaviour when he held a slim majority in the House from 1964-66. Yet he subsequently <a href="http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/othelem/chron/ch68.htm">tried to help</a> Ulster premier Terence O’Neill defuse the civil rights agitation of the late 1960s. Had O’Neill included changes to local government boundaries in his package of reforms in November 1968, <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=si_HBgAAQBAJ&pg=PA137&lpg=PA137&dq=%22Harold+Wilson%22+%26+%22Terence+O%E2%80%99Neill%22+%26+civil+rights+%26+%22local+government%22&source=bl&ots=2TRP3lA1XJ&sig=9NnOOBaWlmVXBOJ5mWLccLcAjIU&hl=en&sa=X&ei=nls-Vc_MNpTdapzOgOAF&ved=0CEAQ6AEwBQ#v=onepage&q=%22Harold%20Wilson%22%20%26%20%22Terence%20O%E2%80%99Neill%22%20%26%20civil%20rights%20%26%20%22local%20government%22&f=false">as urged by Wilson</a>, Northern Ireland might have been spared the tragedy that descended on it, <a href="http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/events/abstract/72storm.htm">culminating in</a> the return to direct Westminster rule in 1972.</p>
<p>As for Wilson’s successor James Callaghan, he did not baulk at conceding an increase in Northern Ireland MPs at Westminster in 1978. This was a <a href="https://commonspace.scot/articles/789/march-1979-what-really-happened-when-the-snp-brought-down-a-minority-labour-government">key Ulster Unionist demand</a> in order to receive some limited unionist support amid the precarious circumstances his government then had to endure. The Labour foreign secretary of the time, David Owen, has <a href="http://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Time_to_Declare.html?id=lDBdPgAACAAJ&redir_esc=y">written that</a> support from the Ulster Unionists was “at least as important in the survival of the Labour government” as that of the Liberals. By contrast, the two biggest blows to the unionist psyche – the suspension of Stormont in 1972 and the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/15/newsid_2539000/2539849.stm">Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985</a> – were delivered by Conservative governments.</p>
<h2>Political similarities</h2>
<p>At the same time, social class does matter politically in Northern Ireland, contrary to what many outsiders are led to believe. The DUP draws much of its support from less well-off protestants and is careful not to distance itself from the unemployed, the low paid and those on benefits. </p>
<p>Opposition to the bedroom tax and a variety of left-of-centre measures are in the <a href="http://www.mydup.com/publications/view/2015-westminster-manifesto">party’s manifesto</a> for this election. The DUP could invite considerable political trouble if it backed a Conservative government hell-bent on yet more austerity, especially as it seeks to protect welfare spending in Northern Ireland as much as possible and to secure help to re-vitalise the province’s economy. Meanwhile, the deputy leader Nigel Dodds wrote in the New Statesman <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/02/dup-could-do-deal-labour-says-partys-westminster-leader">in February</a> of his party’s possible willingness to work with Labour – and has also made some trenchant criticisms of free-market fundamentalism.</p>
<h2>The only British unionists in town?</h2>
<p>Finally there is the overarching matter of the union itself. The DUP has always embodied a strong streak of Ulster independence (with a small “i”) in its make-up, and has traditionally been far less enthralled by London and Westminster than its Ulster Unionist rival. The DUP can live with a looser UK, yet there is an urgent need from a unionist point of view to take steps to hold the UK together. In this respect the DUP may take the view that it is Labour that holds out the best prospect of achieving this goal. </p>
<p>The DUP cannot be happy with David Cameron’s stress on <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/19/david-cameron-devolution-revolution-uk-scotland-vote">“English votes for English laws”</a>, with the implication that the principles of UK unity and sharing and mutual sacrifice are at a discount in the eyes of the Tories. The DUP might see the bigger UK picture and acknowledge that it is eminently in the interests of the preservation of the union that Labour is helped to govern and to turn back the separatist tide in Scotland. </p>
<p>After all, the only unionist answer to the currently buoyant Scottish National Party (SNP) is surely Labour, the one party with strength throughout mainland Britain. Of course there is the major question of whether the DUP could stomach doing business with the party if it were dealing with the SNP. Perhaps these Celtic parties could co-exist as long as the Scots made no progress in fracturing the union or in pursuing a second independence referendum. </p>
<p>Either way the main point is this: it would make little sense from a unionist point of view for the DUP to throw its weight behind the Conservatives at this juncture. The party’s appeal is essentially English and its behaviour increasingly reveals a loss of faith in the idea of a multi-national, pluralist UK. This lack of fit cannot be easily discounted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40878/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graham is a member of the Labour Party</span></em></p>Everyone is assuming that the DUP would do a deal with the Tories after the election if the option arose. Everyone may be wrong.Graham Walker, Professor of Political History, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/251752014-04-11T05:14:50Z2014-04-11T05:14:50ZScottish ballot is not stoking nationalism in Northern Ireland<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46012/original/qfc7f7gp-1397051788.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Irish situation is delicate enough without talk of referendums anywhere near Stormont</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/joelriley/2592473493/in/photolist-4X673R-4Xao2U-4XanoL-4X66rx-4X67mH-8xxPgy-299DNJ-bu2J99-6pc599-4zM4g1-c4BdX1-bSuS3X-h7MCnG-65Y9DM-bV33Zy-dWHryE-bGqeCX-e3FRLJ-3kCAJ-84RCLg-84RCt6-84ULoC-btvpmo-84RD4i-84RB9i-3kCAK-84UJVU-84UKb1-84UJGu-84UKtj-afVEEa-LHPqJ-PWacw-PW2rh-PW2qu-PWac9-PW2qJ-PW2qs-PWabJ-PWaco-PWacd-PW2qy-PWac5-PW2qG-6p7Wg6-4DYEVJ-NMhKh-GYMgA-bF5qsc-GYMh3">Joel Riley</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Northern Ireland’s oldest joke is that a man is asked, “Are you Protestant or Catholic?” to which he replies, “Actually I’m Jewish”. </p>
<p>His questioner responds: “Yes but are you a Protestant or a Catholic Jew?” </p>
<p>In the joke is the recognisable truth that in Northern Ireland all comparative debates are engaged with not just on their own terms, but on their significance for the troubles. </p>
<p>This has been true of the approach to Scottish independence. When the referendum was launched, Ulster Unionist politician <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-16749576">Lord Empey indicated</a> that a referendum could destabilise Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>Martin McGuiness, the deputy first minister (Sinn Féin), <a href="http://socialistparty.ie/2012/03/sectarian-parties-will-exploit-scottish-referendum/">quickly responded</a> that Northern Ireland should stay out of Scotland’s right to decide its own future. Neither response was “neutral” – Empey was affirming the Union and McGuiness a right to unilateral self-determination. </p>
<p>Later <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/02/n-ireland-frets-at-scotland-independence-vote-201421612192349625.html">Gerry Adams indicated</a>, perhaps more for his Southern Irish audience (where he now stands for election), that the Scottish referendum increased the impetus for a referendum in Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>Interestingly, there has been no unionist return to statements from that side in the 1970s which indicated that in the event of the break-up of the two key kingdoms of the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland might decide which one it wanted to stay in union with. </p>
<p>Despite this initial discussion, Northern Ireland has enjoyed a level of protection from contagion as referendum fever has progressed in Scotland. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agreement">Belfast/Good Friday Agreement</a> and <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/47/contents">Northern Ireland Act 1998</a> make clear provision for a referendum, unlike the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/contents">Scotland Act 1998</a>. This clarity over when and how a referendum can be called has set limits which have curbed game playing. </p>
<p>Yet at a more existential level, the debate matters greatly. Exactly how it matters is complicated, because how to read Scotland’s implications for Northern Ireland cuts different ways culturally and politically.</p>
<h2>The rise of the Ulster-Scots</h2>
<p>Culturally the Northern Irish Protestants and unionists revere their Scottish ancestry and connections and look to Scotland as their kin. Affirming their Ulster-Scots identity has become more politically significant to the community since the 1998 Agreement. </p>
<p>Their culture and language, which is little different to that of Scots, has been re-awakened partly as an attempt to find a positive identity rather than being “not Irish” or “merely British”. </p>
<p>More problematically, affirming their culture has led unionist communities to compete for funding with nationalists, where the culture has traditionally been strong and there has been a more established revival of the Irish language. </p>
<p>Politically there could even be a possible sneaking unionist regard for the straightforward approach and political positions of the SNP, perhaps rooted in the now almost-forgotten loyalist yearning for an independent Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>One can imagine that Alex Salmond’s ability to just speak for Scotland as its first minister and propose unilateral action in the name of his majority vote might appear attractive to someone like Peter Robinson. </p>
<p>The unionist Northern Irish premier can neither speak as unilateral first minister nor claim to represent the country on his own, yet he would share Salmond’s basic distrust of the UK central government policies regarding his devolved territory. </p>
<p>But at the same time, nationalism is the terrain and language of Irish nationalists. Scottish nationalism and the referendum most threatens unionists, who would be thrown into deep existential turmoil – along with the rest of the UK - were Scotland to vote yes in September.</p>
<h2>The nationalist dilemma</h2>
<p>As for Irish nationalists, they have remained relatively muted about the Scottish referendum despite Gerry Adams’ comments - even though you might assume that the possibility of just suddenly dismantling the UK would be a boon to them. </p>
<p>The fact is that with Ireland’s economic woes, this would be the worst of all possible times to try to win a referendum for a united Ireland. Ireland lost portions of its own sovereignty during the financial crisis, undermining the argument that unity would allow self-determination for a single Ireland. </p>
<p>As in Iceland, the collapse has led to profound questions about the adequacy of the current political class and pressure for profound change. Apart from the difficulty of persuading a critical mass of liberal Protestants to vote for a project they have not bought into in significant numbers before, one suspects that any all-Ireland referendum campaign might even struggle to keep its nationalist core onside. </p>
<p>Sinn Féin has avoided overt support for a yes vote in Scotland because it knows that the party’s divisive associations would be unhelpful to the SNP. But this circumspection has perhaps also suited at home. </p>
<p>At present, therefore, Northern Ireland has more to fear from politics at home than politics in Scotland. The peace process is being undermined by a complicated set of factors, which boil down to uncompleted business from the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement. Dissidents on all sides appear to be gaining capacity to act on the back of the unease. </p>
<p>People in Northern Ireland tend to see the glass as half full when it comes to peace no matter how rosy the future. But recently even US diplomat Richard Haas, having failed to secure agreement over resolving these issues, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-26535987">recently warned</a> the US Congress that Northern Ireland stood a real chance of back-sliding into conflict without urgent attention. </p>
<p>These difficulties have little to do with the Scottish referendum, and without serious attention Northern Ireland’s peace process may well unravel whatever the Scottish result (although we must continue to hope and pray not). </p>
<p>What Scotland’s referendum and Northern Ireland’s disintegrating peace process do speak to is a UK tendency to believe its rhetoric that devolution was a policy option that it successfully rolled out across regions before continuing with business as usual. </p>
<p>This has meant that successive UK governments have tended to underestimate the alternative visions and tensions in how devolution was understood by those implementing it at the periphery. </p>
<p>The hope at the centre must be that it emerges from both troubled moments with the union unscathed. The hope at the periphery must be for a new and more creative engagement between centre and periphery on constitutional development, whatever happens in Scotland this September.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25175/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christine Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Northern Ireland’s oldest joke is that a man is asked, “Are you Protestant or Catholic?” to which he replies, “Actually I’m Jewish”. His questioner responds: “Yes but are you a Protestant or a Catholic…Christine Bell, Professor of Constitutional Law, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.