tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/qanda-6351/articlesQ&A – The Conversation2024-02-28T17:09:36Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2220322024-02-28T17:09:36Z2024-02-28T17:09:36ZW.E.B. Du Bois’ study ‘The Philadelphia Negro’ at 125 still explains roots of the urban Black experience – sociologist Elijah Anderson tells why it should be on more reading lists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576236/original/file-20240216-26-ucw3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A mural dedicated to Du Bois and the Old Seventh Ward is painted on the corner of 6th and South streets in Philadelphia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/general-view-of-the-mural-commemorating-the-seventh-ward-on-news-photo/502954290">Paul Marotta/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>W.E.B. Du Bois is widely known for his civil rights activism, but many <a href="https://doi.org/10.7709/jnegroeducation.87.3.0230">sociologists argue</a> that he has yet to receive due recognition as the founding father of <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-sociology-a-sociologist-explains-why-floridas-college-students-should-get-the-chance-to-learn-how-social-forces-affect-everyones-lives-222365">American sociology</a>. His groundbreaking study, “<a href="https://www.pennpress.org/9781512824346/the-philadelphia-negro/">The Philadelphia Negro: A Social Study</a>,” was published in 1899 and exhaustively detailed the poor social conditions of thousands of Black Philadelphians in the city’s historic Seventh Ward neighborhood.</em> </p>
<p><em>We spoke with <a href="https://sociology.yale.edu/people/elijah-anderson">Elijah Anderson</a>, Sterling Professor of Sociology and of African American Studies at Yale University, about the importance of Du Bois’ seminal study and why it’s still relevant for Philadelphians 125 years later.</em></p>
<p><strong>How did the ‘Philadelphia Negro’ study come about?</strong></p>
<p>Much of Philadelphia’s elite of the day believed that the city was going to the dogs, and that the reason was the huge influx of Black people from the South. Susan Wharton, a philanthropist and the wife of Joseph Wharton – after whom the Wharton School is named – and then-provost at the University of Pennsylvania Charles Harrison invited Du Bois to come to Philadelphia to study Philadelphia’s Black population and try to find answers to this problem.</p>
<p>Du Bois accepted their offer, which came with a small stipend, and came to Philadelphia along with his new bride, Nina Gomer. They settled in the Old Seventh Ward in a local settlement house, located at Sixth and Waverly streets, down the street from Mother Bethel AME, the famous Black church. Du Bois then set about studying the Seventh Ward, known for its concentration of the Black population. These people lived in the alleys and streets adjacent to the wealthy white people for whom they worked as servants. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Family portrait of W.E.B. Du Bois, his wife Nina, and their baby son Burghardt in 1898." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577096/original/file-20240221-20-awssda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577096/original/file-20240221-20-awssda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577096/original/file-20240221-20-awssda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577096/original/file-20240221-20-awssda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577096/original/file-20240221-20-awssda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577096/original/file-20240221-20-awssda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577096/original/file-20240221-20-awssda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Family portrait of W.E.B Du Bois, his wife, Nina, and their baby son Burghardt in 1898.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://credo.library.umass.edu/view/full/mums312-i0389">W.E.B. Du Bois Papers, 1803-1999, Special Collections and University Archives, University of Massachusetts Amherst Libraries</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Due to Du Bois’ upbringing and Harvard education, his bearing was that of the elite. While conducting his field work, he at times dressed in spats and a suit and tie. </p>
<p>Du Bois approached his subjects as an objective social scientist. He wanted to understand the condition of Philadelphia’s Black population and then provide his report to the white elite whom he believed would use his work to improve the condition of Black people, both within Philadelphia and beyond. </p>
<p><strong>Can you explain his idea of the benevolent despot?</strong></p>
<p>This term is based on Du Bois’ original premise: that the inequality between the living conditions of Blacks and whites could be rectified by the wealthy people who controlled the city. He regarded these leaders as despots due to the power they wielded, but also believed them to be benevolent as well as rational. Du Bois observed the Irish and Scottish immigrants who were employed in certain industries. He wondered why these companies would fail to employ Black people, as well, and concluded that they must simply be ignorant. After all, in his mind, these were benevolent people as well as rich and powerful – and most importantly, they were rational. So why would they employ the Irish and Scots, but not the Black people? This was a critical question for Du Bois, and one he was determined to answer through his study.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576238/original/file-20240216-30-6f7ir.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Book cover of 'The Philadelphia Negro: A Social Study' by W.E.B. Du Bois" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576238/original/file-20240216-30-6f7ir.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576238/original/file-20240216-30-6f7ir.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576238/original/file-20240216-30-6f7ir.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576238/original/file-20240216-30-6f7ir.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576238/original/file-20240216-30-6f7ir.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576238/original/file-20240216-30-6f7ir.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576238/original/file-20240216-30-6f7ir.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Elijah Anderson wrote the introduction to the 1995 and 2023 editions of ‘The Philadelphia Negro.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pennpress.org/9781512824346/the-philadelphia-negro/">University of Pennsylvania Press</a></span>
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<p>However, as the study progressed, Du Bois began to realize that the problem was much more complicated than he’d originally assumed. He realized that the so-called benevolent despots may not be so benevolent after all, focusing on their own financial interests. These included pitting Irish and Scottish workers against Black people to keep wages low, but also a simple preference of white workers over Black workers.</p>
<p>Halfway through the study, Du Bois pours out a soliloquy of disappointment. He declares that there is, in fact, no benevolent captain of industry, because if such a person existed, he wouldn’t let these Black boys and girls fester in poverty and crime. </p>
<p>He writes:</p>
<p>“If now a benevolent despot had seen the development, he would immediately have sought to remedy the real weakness of the Negro’s position, i.e., his lack of training; and he would have swept away any discrimination that compelled men to support as criminals those who might support themselves as workmen.</p>
<p>"He would have made special effort to train Negro boys for industrial life and given them a chance to compete on equal terms with the best white workmen; arguing that in the long run this would be best for all concerned, since by raising the skill and standard of living of the Negroes he would make them effective workmen and competitors who would maintain a decent level of wages. He would have sternly suppressed organized or covert opposition to Negro workmen.</p>
<p>"There was, however, no benevolent despot, no philanthropist, no far-seeing captain of industry to prevent the Negro from losing even the skill he had learned or to inspire him by opportunities to learn more.”</p>
<p>This is also where Du Bois began to see and clarify the situation as a problem of racism. He doesn’t use the word “racism” – that word did not exist at the time – but he speaks in terms of racial preferences and discrimination. </p>
<p><strong>How are his findings relevant to Philadelphians today?</strong></p>
<p>“The Philadelphia Negro” remains a powerful work. It depicts the social organization of the Black community, and especially the Black class structure of Du Bois’ day. It also utilizes the technique we know today as “<a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8wc8v8cv">cohort analysis</a>” – the idea that social conditions affecting a group are also impactful to the individual, and that what happens to the group is a function of historic moments of society. </p>
<p>Du Bois’ ethnographic descriptions of Black people living in isolated communities after the end of slavery and migrating to these cities presages the dire conditions in inner-city communities of today, many of which are still largely Black. </p>
<p>Additionally, the role of European immigration in Du Bois’ day played a critical role in undermining the position of Black people in society. In the context of “white over Black,” each successive wave of immigration from Europe since the end of the Civil War typically worked to undermine the position of the emerging Black middle class. </p>
<p>Du Bois pointed this out back in 1899. He observed that employers preferred white immigrants from Europe over Black people. The benevolent despot Du Bois hoped to reach ignored his work, with implications for Philadelphia race relations to this day.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577092/original/file-20240221-24-gr3t9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="W.E.B. Du Bois seated at desk in office at Atlanta University in 1909" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577092/original/file-20240221-24-gr3t9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577092/original/file-20240221-24-gr3t9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577092/original/file-20240221-24-gr3t9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577092/original/file-20240221-24-gr3t9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577092/original/file-20240221-24-gr3t9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577092/original/file-20240221-24-gr3t9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577092/original/file-20240221-24-gr3t9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">W.E.B. Du Bois seated in his office at Atlanta University in 1909.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://credo.library.umass.edu/cgi-bin/pdf.cgi?id=scua:mums312-i0393">W.E.B. Du Bois Papers, 1803-1999, Special Collections and University Archives, University of Massachusetts Amherst Libraries</a></span>
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<p><strong>How did it inform your own work as a sociologist?</strong></p>
<p>When I was a sociology graduate student at the University of Chicago in the 1970s, “The Philadelphia Negro” was not required reading. But later, I taught a summer course at Northwestern University about Du Bois and, like so many young Black scholars of my generation, I was deeply inspired by his work.</p>
<p>Afterwards, when I was recruited by Swarthmore College – located 11 miles outside Philadelphia – I felt honored to reside near the city where Du Bois had conducted his work. I often traveled to Philadelphia to walk through the neighborhoods where he’d worked. Ultimately, the University of Pennsylvania – the very place that had originally recruited Du Bois to conduct his study – offered me a position. I moved to the city and began conducting ethnographic studies. In some sense, I followed in the footsteps of Du Bois. </p>
<p>In fact, my entire body of ethnographic work grows out of some of the questions Du Bois raises, and the unresolved problems he uncovers. “<a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/S/bo3638183.html">Streetwise</a>” focuses on the sociology of gentrification and its implications for both white and Black people living in gentrifying neighborhoods. “<a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/Code-of-the-Street/">Code of the Street</a>” addresses the violence that occurs in inner-city neighborhoods, as well as the issue of policing and the abdication of the police. After that, I began to deal with some of the issues that brought different races together. “<a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393340518">The Cosmopolitan Canopy</a>” is an ethnographic study of Philadelphia’s Rittenhouse Square and the Reading Terminal Market and Center City.
Most recently, in 2022, I published “<a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/B/bo119245209.html">Black in White Space</a>,” a fine-grained ethnographic portrait of how systemic racism operates in everyday life. </p>
<p>All these books, based on studies that were conducted in Philadelphia, stem from the inspiration of reading Du Bois as a graduate student.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576852/original/file-20240220-20-uaxpth.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="View of empty street in Kensington neighborhood of North Philadelphia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576852/original/file-20240220-20-uaxpth.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576852/original/file-20240220-20-uaxpth.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576852/original/file-20240220-20-uaxpth.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576852/original/file-20240220-20-uaxpth.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576852/original/file-20240220-20-uaxpth.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576852/original/file-20240220-20-uaxpth.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576852/original/file-20240220-20-uaxpth.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Philadelphia has more residents living in poverty than any other big city in the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/buildings-stand-in-the-neighborhood-where-the-west-news-photo/1308933509">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p><strong>Why should Philadelphians read this book?</strong></p>
<p>The book is a seminal work, and while it has influenced many Black sociologists, it has <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520286764/the-scholar-denied">not yet received the attention it deserves</a>. However, an increasing number of scholars, both Black and white, are beginning to grapple with Du Bois’ work.</p>
<p>Philadelphians should read this book to become enlightened about the city’s history and how it relates to the dire circumstances of the city’s impoverished population of today. </p>
<p>The Philadelphia economy is undergoing a <a href="https://selectgreaterphl.com/doing-business/economic-overview/">period of profound transition</a>, from an economy based on manufacturing to one based increasingly on service and high technology, including robotics, computers and social media. Jobs and financial opportunities are <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/02/how-the-pandemic-has-affected-philadelphias-economy-and-jobs">sent away from Philadelphia</a> to non-metropolitan America and to underdeveloped nations around the world. As a result, many residents of the city have become dislocated economically; <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia-poverty-rate-big-city-20230914.html">22% of the city’s population is impoverished</a>, and a <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/-/media/assets/2017/11/pri_philadelphias_poor.pdf">majority of them are Black</a>. Hence, the condition of the disenfranchised underclass whom Du Bois regarded as the “submerged tenth” has become remarkably more complicated and dire.</p>
<p>This complex mix of factors creates a good deal of crime and alienation, which feeds into the dominant narrative that our cities are falling apart – and that it’s the fault of this disenfranchised underclass, this “submerged tenth.” This is blatantly incorrect. The problems facing today’s poor inner-city residents stem from <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/B/bo119245209.html">systemic racism</a> and <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/T/bo13375722.html">the structure of capital</a>, not the individuals trapped inside that structure. </p>
<p>Strikingly, despite being written over a century ago, “The Philadelphia Negro” anticipates not only the condition of today’s poor inner-city Blacks, but also the unwillingness or the inability of today’s “benevolent despots” to rectify or even address the situation. We see Du Bois’ “submerged tenth” in today’s drug dealers, drug addicts and the persistently impoverished Black community. And we see his not-so-benevolent despots in politicians who would rather blame the victims than take any steps to improve their lot.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222032/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elijah Anderson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Over a century ago, white Philadelphia elites believed the city was going to the dogs – and they blamed poor Black inner-city residents instead of the racism that kept this group disenfranchised.Elijah Anderson, Professor of Sociology and African American Studies, Yale UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225612024-02-07T13:11:48Z2024-02-07T13:11:48ZBiden’s ‘hard look’ at liquefied natural gas exports raises a critical question: How does natural gas fit with US climate goals?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573502/original/file-20240205-30-63bf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3784%2C2623&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A heat exchanger and transfer pipes at Dominion Energy's Cove Point LNG Terminal in Lusby, Md.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ChesapeakeBayLNGExports/60c6ff33c115496fb821bf89276bd5e9/photo">AP Photo/Cliff Owen</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Biden administration has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-temporary-pause-on-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports/">frozen pending decisions</a> on permit applications to export liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to countries other than <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/trade/priority-issues/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements">U.S. free trade partners</a>. During this pause, which will last for up to 15 months, the administration has pledged to take a “hard look” at economic, environmental and national security issues associated with exporting LNG.</em> </p>
<p><em>Environmental advocates, who have expressed alarm over the rapid growth of U.S. LNG exports and their effects on Earth’s climate, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-pauses-approval-new-lng-export-projects-win-climate-activists-2024-01-26/">praised this step</a>. Critics, including energy companies and members of Congress, argue that it threatens <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/europe-faces-the-chill-as-biden-freezes-new-lng-export-permits">European energy security</a> and <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/cornyn-freezing-lng-exports-threatens-texas-jobs-18645141.php">energy jobs in the U.S.</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3RI02dcAAAAJ&hl=en">Emily Grubert</a>, associate professor of sustainable energy policy at the University of Notre Dame and a former official at the U.S. Department of Energy, explains why large-scale LNG exports raise complex questions for U.S. policymakers.</em></p>
<h2>Is the US a major LNG supplier?</h2>
<p>The U.S. is now <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60582">the world’s largest LNG exporter</a>. In November 2023, the most recent month with full data, the U.S. exported <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_expc_s1_m.htm">about 390 billion cubic feet</a> of LNG, a record high. </p>
<p>The U.S. has been a net exporter since 2017, with export volumes now equal to about 15% of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm">our domestic consumption</a>. This gas sells for higher prices than natural gas delivered domestically, but it also costs more to process and deliver. As of 2022, the U.S. <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_expc_s1_a.htm">provided 20%</a> of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57000">total global LNG exports</a>.</p>
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<h2>Are there plans for exporting even more LNG?</h2>
<p>The U.S. Energy Administration projects that North American LNG export capacity – largely from the U.S. – is likely to <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60944">more than double</a> from its current level by the end of 2027. In the U.S., five LNG export terminals are currently under construction, and are not affected by the current pause. </p>
<p>Applications for <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/media/us-lng-export-terminals-existing-approved-not-yet-built-and-proposed">additional export terminals</a> are under review. These are the applications for which decisions have been <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-temporary-pause-on-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports/">temporarily paused</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing nine proposed new LNG plants in coastal Texas and Louisiana." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Proposed North American LNG export terminals as of July 5, 2022. Except for terminals in Alaska, Maryland and Georgia, most U.S. LNG infrastructure is already concentrated along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-10/7.%20LNG%20Maps%207-5-2022%20-%20Exports_ds.pdf">U.S. Department of Energy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How does LNG fit into a transition away from fossil fuel?</h2>
<p>LNG, and natural gas in general, has an uneasy place in the decarbonization transition. Natural gas is a fossil fuel. Burning it produces carbon dioxide that <a href="https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php">contributes to climate change</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, natural gas that has been processed for use is essentially pure methane, which is itself a greenhouse gas. When natural gas leaks to the atmosphere from sources like wells, pipelines or processing plants, it adds to climate change. Since the mid-1800s, human activities – mainly, burning fossil fuel – have raised Earth’s temperature by roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 Celsius) above preindustrial levels. Methane has <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf603">caused about 0.9 degrees F (0.5 C) of that warming</a> above preindustrial global temperatures. </p>
<p>LNG is not a transition away from fossil fuel – it is a fossil fuel. Hypothetically, substituting LNG for more carbon-intensive fuels, like coal or other natural gas supplies with higher methane emissions, could help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the near term. </p>
<p>But there’s debate over <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac71ba">how much LNG is actually useful in that context</a>, especially when it comes to whether LNG would actually prompt switching from coal to gas, and if so, whether the long-term lock-in of fossil gas use is worth it. Meanwhile, investing in new LNG infrastructure means either committing to operate these facilities for years, or planning to <a href="https://energy.mit.edu/news/energy-transition-could-leave-fossil-energy-producers-and-investors-with-costly-stranded-assets/">strand expensive assets</a> by retiring them early. </p>
<p>LNG terminals also have significant local impacts. In addition to methane, they emit large quantities of other air pollutants, including <a href="https://thelensnola.org/2023/05/26/groups-seek-federal-intervention-for-lng-company-they-deem-air-permit-offender/">nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds</a>. Tanker traffic to and from them can <a href="https://www.ehn.org/lng-environmental-justice-2666656588.html">damage marshes and waterways</a>. Building more terminals, especially in areas where energy facilities <a href="https://lailluminator.com/2023/03/20/sacrifice-zone-gulf-coast-helps-meet-global-natural-gas-needs-but-at-what-cost/">are already concentrated</a>, raises important health and environmental justice concerns.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hJgbyqSMLYE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. LNG export boom could offer economic benefits, but also local and global environmental damage from producing, shipping and consuming natural gas.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions will require a commitment to actually shift away from fossil fuel. In my view, it’s not clear that deploying LNG will achieve this goal unless it’s done with an explicit plan and mechanism to ensure that the gas is only used where it is actually needed and can support an emissions phaseout.</p>
<h2>What do you think this policy review should consider?</h2>
<p>As I see it, the most important step is to develop a coherent national strategy for the role of natural gas in the U.S. energy system, consistent with the Biden administration’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/04/20/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-catalyze-global-climate-action-through-the-major-economies-forum-on-energy-and-climate/#">stringent goals</a> of making the U.S. electricity supply carbon-free electricity by 2035 and achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas economy by 2050. </p>
<p>Such a blueprint would need to include a plan for reshaping the nation’s energy infrastructure to phase out use of natural gas, along with coal and oil. In theory, it could include targeted deployment of gas resources to ensure that energy needs are being met while zero-carbon resources are deployed along the way. </p>
<p>I’d like to see a clear articulation of the climate, health and energy system impacts of approving additional LNG export terminals, with enforcement mechanisms in place to ensure that the U.S. will meet defined limits on climate and other pollution, and on operational conditions. I’d also like to see health and environmental justice considerations deeply embedded into energy and climate decisions in general, and especially for LNG projects. </p>
<p>These plants are sited mainly in communities that <a href="https://prismreports.org/2023/02/20/lng-climate-sacrifice-zones/">have suffered high rates of illness, premature deaths and environmental damage</a> from hosting <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/21/oil-refineries-pollution-gulf-coast-epa/">fossil fuel infrastructure</a> for decades. Many of them have <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/emissions-rising-seas-test-game-changer-lng-project/">said they don’t want</a> additional LNG development. In my view, without clarity on where the U.S. is going on this issue, it will be extremely difficult to make good decisions about LNG, and about natural gas in general.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Grubert served in 2021-2022 as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Carbon Management and, later, as Senior Advisor in the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management at the US Department of Energy, which has permitting authority over LNG terminals. She was not involved with LNG decisions.</span></em></p>The US, a minor liquefied natural gas supplier a decade ago, now is the world’s top source. That’s good for energy security, but bad for Earth’s climate. An energy scholar explains the trade-offs.Emily Grubert, Associate Professor of Sustainable Energy Policy, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2202732023-12-21T02:07:03Z2023-12-21T02:07:03ZTrump barred from Colorado ballot – now what?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566998/original/file-20231220-17-avsgja.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C23%2C3958%2C2634&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump at a campaign event in Waterloo, Iowa, on Dec. 19, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-us-president-and-2024-presidential-hopeful-donald-news-photo/1860797047?adppopup=true">Kamil Krzaczysnki/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In the wake of the Colorado Supreme Court ruling that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/politics/trump-colorado-supreme-court-14th-amendment">bars Donald Trump from the ballot</a> in the state’s primary and general elections, The Conversation U.S. asked <a href="https://www.law.umaryland.edu/faculty--research/directory/profile/index.php?id=055">Mark A. Graber</a>, regents professor of law at the University of Maryland Carey Law School, what this all means – for Trump, for regular Americans and for the 2024 election.</em></p>
<p><em>The key questions are about <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-14/#amendment-14-section-3">Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution</a>. That provision bars people from holding federal and state offices if they have taken an oath to uphold the Constitution and then violated that oath by participating in an insurrection.</em></p>
<p><em>Graber filed an <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/x4tl8vbdcy6bmqfr6p3jv/002-2023-11-20-Amicus-Brief-Professor-Graber-CSC-Date-Stamped.pdf?rlkey=m1pbl5qtycw1hzue9kt2n75d5&dl=0">amicus brief</a> that was technically in support of the voters seeking to block Trump from the ballot, but focused specifically on the history of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Some of Graber’s scholarly works, including a <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4591133">journal article</a> and a <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700635030/">book</a>, were cited in the court’s decision.</em></p>
<p><em>The court’s ruling has sparked a <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/20/nation/republicans-angry-trump-disqualified-colorado-ballot/">nationwide outcry</a> – both in support of its conclusions and in opposition to them. And many other states may have to make similar decisions.</em></p>
<p><em>Supporters of the court’s decision say it correctly determined that Trump swore an oath to uphold the Constitution at his inauguration, then participated in an insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, and therefore is <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4368931-democratic-lawmakers-voice-support-for-colorado-courts-ruling-on-trump/">not qualified to serve</a> as president. Critics of the decision say <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/20/trump-republican-rivals-colorado-ballot/">judges are trying to usurp voters’ right</a> to choose the president they want.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man wearing a blue shirt and a hat drops off a ballot in an official box." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Colorado Supreme Court said Donald Trump could not appear on the state’s 2024 primary or general election ballot. Here, a voter drops off his ballot in Denver during the 2022 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voter-places-his-ballot-in-a-drop-off-box-outside-the-la-news-photo/1244617819?adppopup=true">Photo by Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why are people so interested in this ruling?</h2>
<p>Somebody had to go in the water. I think the last thing anyone wanted was for the first successful disqualification of Trump to be a month before the election. Now, the issue is on the table. It wouldn’t surprise me if other states discover the water isn’t all that bad and disqualify Trump. Then we can get answers before people start voting in the primaries and in the general election. </p>
<h2>From here, what happens procedurally?</h2>
<p>One answer – and I doubt this would happen, but it actually might make sense – is that Trump doesn’t bother appealing. He doesn’t need Colorado delegates to get the Republican nomination. He doesn’t need Colorado electoral votes to win the presidency. And appealing is time-consuming and expensive.</p>
<p>Dating back as far as the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/judiciary_act_of_1789">Judiciary Act of 1789</a>, federal laws have allowed certain types of rulings from states’ highest courts to be appealed directly to the U.S. Supreme Court.</p>
<p>Everybody expects the Supreme Court to get involved. But nobody thinks it is required to. If it were appealed, the court could decline to hear the case, or accept it.</p>
<p>So Trump could appeal. If he didn’t appeal, or if the Supreme Court declined to take the case, then he’s disqualified in Colorado. Perhaps other lawsuits would take place, and he would be on the ballot in some states and not on the ballot in others. The Supreme Court could also say it would consider taking up a future case if a conflict between state court rulings arose.</p>
<h2>What if the Supreme Court does take the case?</h2>
<p>Most people think there are two options for the outcome, but I think there are three.</p>
<p>The simple option is that the Supreme Court could rule that yes, Trump is disqualified under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Then he can’t be on the ballot anywhere.</p>
<p>The second option is the Supreme Court says he’s not disqualified. But the court could hand down two different kinds of rulings saying that.</p>
<p>It could reverse the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision on substance, finding that Trump did not engage in insurrection as insurrection is understood by the 14th Amendment. That would mean no further proceedings are permissible – no state can challenge it, and Congress can’t challenge it.</p>
<p>Or the Supreme Court could reverse it on a technicality – maybe Trump is disqualified, but the 14th Amendment’s Section 3 doesn’t apply to a primary election, or Congress should weigh in, or one or another detail that could mean another lawsuit down the line might be successful.</p>
<h2>That’s two options. What’s the third?</h2>
<p>There’s a third major option if you look at the way the framers understood how the 14th Amendment would operate. The <a href="https://memory.loc.gov/ammem/amlaw/lwcg.html">record of their debates</a> shows that they believed it would first be implemented in the states. </p>
<p>Part of the history is people in the 19th century thought differently than we do. Not simply that they came to different conclusions, but they understood the structure of the government quite differently.</p>
<p>Today, we hear people say many laws and standards can’t be established at the state level, that they need to be uniform across the country. But back then, people were less fearful of diversity. So they were willing to let states vary more. If uniformity was needed, or if Congress did not approve of what the states were doing, Congress could pass more general legislation. </p>
<p>So the court could say, “Colorado has disqualified Trump. That’s OK for Colorado. Other states, you get to do what you think best. And Congress, if you don’t like the mish-mosh, pass a law standardizing it.” I think that’s the least likely outcome, but it may be the one most consistent with the history.</p>
<h2>The Colorado Supreme Court says that there doesn’t need to be a criminal conviction of any kind, or a conviction from impeachment, for this provision of the 14th Amendment to apply. Does it matter that Trump has not yet been convicted of any crimes?</h2>
<p>The court is absolutely correct. </p>
<p>There are a number of different ways of understanding this point.</p>
<p>The first is that Section 3 states a qualification to be president, just like <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/article-2/#article-2-section-1-clause-5">being born a United States citizen</a>. So the Colorado Secretary of State would make the same decision if there was evidence that Trump was born Latvian. Being born in Latvia is not a crime. But it’s a disqualification.</p>
<p>The second aspect is that prosecutors charge people with crimes for various reasons. They may have decided to seek prosecution of Trump for other actions. Absence of a conviction doesn’t mean an action didn’t happen.</p>
<p>Or imagine that Trump was still president and the attorney general didn’t want to prosecute because the attorney general is in cahoots with Trump. A private person could still bring the lawsuit.</p>
<p>Right after the Civil War, numerous people were disqualified under this provision, none of whom were convicted of anything.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large, impressive building with columns atop wide granite stairs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Colorado case may well be headed for the U.S. Supreme Court.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/steps-to-the-united-states-supreme-court-washington-royalty-free-image/1364488146?phrase=US+Supreme+Court&adppopup=true">joe daniel price/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why is a state court ruling on a federal constitutional provision or requirement?</h2>
<p>Is capital punishment constitutional? The death penalty trial starts in the state court. It bubbles up until it gets to the state supreme court, then it goes to the federal courts. Same with abortion.</p>
<p>States decide constitutional issues all the time. Indeed, almost all constitutional issues are first decided by state courts.</p>
<h2>What does this mean on a broader scale for the 2024 election?</h2>
<p>We’re not at the end. We just got out of the opening. So the meaning could be almost nothing. The U.S. Supreme Court could reverse the Colorado ruling and say all these lawsuits are wrong. And so we have an interesting academic discussion, but nothing changes.</p>
<p>Or we could have a very long debate about this. And at some point, for example, a number of prominent Republicans could conclude that Trump really is an insurrectionist, and this starts to have serious play in Republican primaries.</p>
<p>We’re still too early to know whether this is a blip or an earthquake, or something in between.</p>
<p>People are scrambling to figure out what they’re going to do. The Colorado Republican Party has just announced they’re <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/colorado-gop-caucus-primary-trump-supreme-court-rcna130591">considering a caucus rather than the primary</a> to avoid needing Trump’s name on a state ballot – at least for the primaries. People are maneuvering.</p>
<h2>How does it feel to be cited in a Colorado Supreme Court decision like this?</h2>
<p>I’m an academic. Favorable citations are 100 on a scale of 100 points. Unfavorable citations are 99. No citations is zero.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark A. Graber filed an amicus brief in the Colorado case that was technically in support of the voters seeking to block Trump from the ballot, but focused specifically on the history of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.</span></em></p>A historian and legal scholar of a key part of the US Constitution explains what happens now that the Colorado Supreme Court has ruled Trump cannot be on the state’s presidential ballots.Mark A. Graber, University System of Maryland Regents Professor of Law, University of MarylandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2104422023-08-02T20:39:28Z2023-08-02T20:39:28ZImmunity for witnesses is a key tool of prosecutors, whether they’re charging Trump or other alleged criminals – here’s how it works and what the limits are<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540826/original/file-20230802-26048-u6ul4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C33%2C5580%2C3617&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A protester walks past the E. Barrett Prettyman U.S. District Court House in Washington, on August 1, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/protester-walks-past-the-e-barrett-prettyman-u-s-district-news-photo/1586150197?adppopup=true">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>At the heart of the alleged scheme for which Donald Trump was indicted on Aug. 1, 2023, was a fake electors plot designed to help him hold onto power after losing the 2020 presidential election.</em></p>
<p><em>In the U.S., people known as electors from each state and Washington, D.C., elect the president based on the popular vote.</em></p>
<p><em>According to the four-count indictment, Trump and two of six unnamed co-conspirators pulled together fraudulent slates of electors in seven key states in an attempt to subvert the real electors who were obligated, based on results of the popular vote, to cast ballots for Joe Biden. The fake electors cast fraudulent ballots for Trump.</em> </p>
<p><em>This latest indictment represents the most serious charges against Trump yet.</em></p>
<p><em>In Fulton County, Georgia, where there is an investigation into alleged fake electors underway, a court filing indicates that District Attorney Fani Willis <a href="https://apnews.com/article/fulton-county-election-investigation-trump-georgia-fb5240cf854eb546b027f950646268c2">granted immunity to eight fake electors</a>. And it’s possible that special counsel Jack Smith acted similarly in the federal probe. Based on anonymous sources, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/23/politics/special-counsel-fake-electors-immunity-testimony-jan-6/index.html">CNN reported that Smith compelled at least two fake electors</a> to testify before a Washington, D.C., grand jury by giving them limited immunity.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation U.S. asked legal scholar <a href="https://law.wayne.edu/profile/gb7147">William Ortman</a>, an associate professor of law at Wayne State University, to explain how immunity and limited immunity work.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540818/original/file-20230802-22768-6zixs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Jack Smith wears a dark blue suit and a tie and is partially obscured by a dark wall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540818/original/file-20230802-22768-6zixs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540818/original/file-20230802-22768-6zixs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540818/original/file-20230802-22768-6zixs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540818/original/file-20230802-22768-6zixs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540818/original/file-20230802-22768-6zixs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540818/original/file-20230802-22768-6zixs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540818/original/file-20230802-22768-6zixs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Special counsel Jack Smith arrives to give remarks following the Aug. 1, 2023, indictment of former President Donald Trump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/special-counsel-jack-smith-arrives-to-give-remarks-on-a-news-photo/1570193282?adppopup=true">Dave Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>What does it mean when a witness is granted immunity?</h2>
<p>It depends on what kind of immunity we’re talking about. There are two basic types, which lawyers refer to as <a href="https://www.justice.gov/archives/jm/criminal-resource-manual-717-transactional-immunity-distinguished">transactional immunity and use immunity</a>. It’s easier to think of them as full immunity and limited immunity.</p>
<p>Full immunity is just what it sounds like. When a prosecutor grants a witness full immunity for an offense, she cannot thereafter prosecute the witness for that offense. Full immunity is tantamount to a “<a href="https://www.talksonlaw.com/briefs/what-is-immunity">get out of jail free</a>” card.</p>
<p>Limited immunity is more complicated. When a prosecutor grants a witness limited immunity, she <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/406/441/">can still prosecute</a> the witness. But she can’t use the witness’s immunized testimony, or evidence that comes from it, against the witness. </p>
<h2>Why would a prosecutor give a witness immunity?</h2>
<p>Prosecutors grant immunity when they want testimony from someone who has refused. Generally, the government <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/445/40/">can compel testimony</a> from anyone with information about a case.</p>
<p>The catch is that witnesses have a right under <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/fifth_amendment">the Fifth Amendment</a> to refuse to answer questions that could be self-incriminating. That puts prosecutors in a bind, particularly when they want information that is in the hands – or the minds – of people who participated in the activity they are seeking to prosecute. </p>
<p>Immunity gives prosecutors a way out. If a person has immunity, then by definition their <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/406/441/">testimony cannot incriminate</a> them. That’s why if a witness has been granted immunity and refuses to testify, they can be <a href="https://www.justice.gov/archives/jm/criminal-resource-manual-728-criminal-contempt">held in contempt</a> and sent to jail.</p>
<h2>What does a witness get out of immunity?</h2>
<p>It again depends on what kind of immunity we’re talking about. For a witness concerned about being charged with a crime, the benefits of full immunity are obvious. Limited immunity is less attractive to defendants, but it is often still appealing. That’s because it can be difficult for <a href="https://casetext.com/case/united-states-v-hampton-2">prosecutors to establish</a> that they obtained evidence independent of immunized testimony, so limited immunity still offers witnesses some protection against future prosecution.</p>
<p>There are, however, hazards to testifying under a grant of immunity. One is that immunity typically <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/FSupp/495/607/2008000/">does not cover perjury</a>. So if an immunized person testifies and lies, or if the prosecutor just thinks they lied, they could be charged with a crime after all. </p>
<p>Beyond the risk of a perjury charge, testifying often means that a witness must provide information that could send a friend or ally to prison. It also means that the witness will be cross-examined by a defense lawyer, who will likely try to <a href="https://forensicresources.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Cross-examining-the-snitch.pdf">convince the jury</a> that the witness is lying. There is also the possibility that the defendant or his associates, or both, might retaliate against the witness <a href="https://casetext.com/case/piemonte-v-united-states-2">outside of the courthouse</a>.</p>
<h2>Is immunity negotiated between prosecutors and witnesses? How is it determined whether a witness gets full or limited immunity?</h2>
<p>The government can negotiate immunity with a witness, but it doesn’t have to. When immunity is negotiated, it looks a lot like a plea agreement, except that the potential defendant doesn’t plead guilty to a crime. Immunity deals can get complicated, but the basic terms are pretty simple: The government agrees that it will not prosecute the person, which is full immunity, or that it will not use the person’s testimony against them, which is limited immunity, while the person agrees to cooperate in some way, often by testifying.</p>
<p>That said, the government can grant immunity to compel a witness’s testimony, even if the witness objects. That makes sense when you recall that the primary function of immunity is to overcome a witness’s right to remain silent. Whether a witness receives full or limited immunity in those situations is determined by statutes and state constitutions. In the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/6002">federal system</a> and <a href="https://www.illinoislawreview.org/wp-content/ilr-content/articles/2003/3/Clair.pdf">some states</a>, the prosecutor merely has to grant limited immunity to compel testimony. In other states, though, prosecutors can compel a person’s testimony only by granting full immunity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A gavel sits on a bare table, in front of an empty courtroom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540820/original/file-20230802-20-tdfx92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540820/original/file-20230802-20-tdfx92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540820/original/file-20230802-20-tdfx92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540820/original/file-20230802-20-tdfx92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540820/original/file-20230802-20-tdfx92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540820/original/file-20230802-20-tdfx92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540820/original/file-20230802-20-tdfx92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">It’s possible that special counsel Jack Smith granted immunity to fake electors or co-conspirators in the federal probe of former President Donald Trump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/courtroom-and-gavel-royalty-free-image/876701606?phrase=court+witness+US&adppopup=true">imaginima/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Is there a difference between state and federal immunity?</h2>
<p>Some states are more generous than others, or than the federal government, in granting full rather than limited immunity. Beyond that, there are various procedural differences between state and federal immunity that can sometimes be important. But on the major points, there aren’t many glaring differences between how witness immunity works in the federal and state systems.</p>
<h2>Can granting immunity in one jurisdiction make the job of a prosecutor in another jurisdiction harder?</h2>
<p>Absolutely, and that is why federal and state prosecutors often coordinate. When a witness testifies in a state proceeding pursuant to a formal immunity grant from a state prosecutor, their testimony can’t be used against them in federal court either. In other words, the person has <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/378/52/">limited immunity in federal proceedings</a>. And it works the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/6002">same way in reverse</a>. When a person testifies with immunity in a federal proceeding, that testimony cannot be used against them in a state prosecution. </p>
<p>That makes good sense. If a person’s testimony could be used against them at a different jurisdictional level, they would still be able to invoke the Fifth Amendment and refuse to answer questions. It can, however, complicate matters when prosecutors at one level try to prosecute a person who received immunity at a different level. One thing that trips up prosecutors in these situations is the requirement that to prosecute someone who has been given immunity they must establish that their evidence is independent of any immunized testimony. That can get tricky.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Ortman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Immunity deals may play a key role in the prosecution of former President Donald Trump.William Ortman, Associate Professor of Law, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105312023-07-27T11:05:24Z2023-07-27T11:05:24ZHunter Biden’s plea agreement renegotiation is rare – a law professor explains what usually happens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539650/original/file-20230726-19-mr73sl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5982%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hunter Biden arrives at federal court in Wilmington, Delaware, to review a plea deal on misdemeanor tax charges.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/hunter-biden-son-of-u-s-president-joe-biden-arrives-to-the-news-photo/1571954662?adppopup=true">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images News via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The highly anticipated July 26, 2023, federal court appearance in Delaware by President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, ended in a completely unanticipated way.</em></p>
<p><em>Hunter Biden was there to get the court to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/26/hunter-biden-plea-deal-00108276">sign off on a plea deal</a> he and his lawyers had negotiated with the Department of Justice related to charges he had paid his taxes late and had illegally owned a gun. What was known of the agreement before the court date was that he would get two years’ probation for the unpaid taxes, which he had ultimately paid off, and that once Biden entered a diversion program, the gun charges would eventually be wiped from his record.</em> </p>
<p><em>But that agreement was questioned by the judge in the case, Maryellen Noreika of Federal District Court in Wilmington, who wanted to know precisely how much immunity from prosecution the agreement gave Biden. He has been under a number of federal investigations since 2018. By the time the court session ended, the judge had <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/26/us/hunter-biden-plea-tax-charges">sent the prosecution and defense to renegotiate the deal</a>, which Biden’s lawyers said would take about two weeks.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation interviewed <a href="https://udayton.edu/directory/law/hoffmeister_thaddeus.php">legal scholar Thaddeus Hoffmeister</a>, an expert in criminal law, for more background on plea deals.</em> </p>
<h2>What is a plea agreement and how is one typically reached?</h2>
<p>A plea agreement is sort of like a contract between the prosecution and the defense. They agree on what the defendant will be pleading guilty to, and once their agreement is reached, it goes to the judge for his or her blessing.</p>
<p>Generally speaking, if it’s a plea agreement, then something favorable is going to happen for the defendant. Usually, the charges are going to be reduced or the sentence is going to be less than if the defendant went to trial and was convicted.</p>
<p>A plea agreement avoids trial because the defendant agrees to accept some responsibility for the charges they face. If there’s no agreement, then ultimately the case will go forward.</p>
<h2>Why do attorneys use plea deals?</h2>
<p>It gives the government the certainty of a guilty plea, and prosecutors don’t have to worry about whether or not they will lose at trial and the defendant is acquitted. And it benefits the defendant because the defendant knows exactly what charges they are going to plead guilty to. If defendants go to trial, they are exposed to a much higher penalty. </p>
<p>Usually, the prosecutors will reduce a couple of charges if the defendant pleads guilty. In a plea deal, the defendant can also have an agreement about the sentence or the sentencing range.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539653/original/file-20230726-19593-l94x9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of people with cameras in a parking lot near a number of office buildings." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539653/original/file-20230726-19593-l94x9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539653/original/file-20230726-19593-l94x9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539653/original/file-20230726-19593-l94x9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539653/original/file-20230726-19593-l94x9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539653/original/file-20230726-19593-l94x9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539653/original/file-20230726-19593-l94x9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539653/original/file-20230726-19593-l94x9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Reporters huddle as a vehicle, top right, leaves with President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, after his court appearance on July 26, 2023, in Wilmington, Delaware.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HunterBiden/7aa9f7be0c914aae8cf8e277c8550a44/photo?Query=Hunter%20Biden&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=665&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Julio Cortez</a></span>
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<h2>What types of plea deals are there?</h2>
<p>In some plea deals, the defendant agrees to cooperate with the government. In certain plea deals, the sentencing is not specified. That’s called an open plea. It’s not hammered out in terms of exactly what the sentence will be. All the agreement says is that you knowingly, voluntarily and intelligently admit to your guilt. </p>
<h2>Is there a difference between state and federal plea deals?</h2>
<p>No. It doesn’t vary too much. </p>
<p>The guilty plea process in federal court usually takes longer than state court. In state courts, pleas can happen fairly quickly. I’ve seen people plead guilty in 30 seconds in state court. It doesn’t take hours like it does in federal court, where prosecutors walk through every little step to make sure you understand what you are agreeing to. They don’t have the sheer number of defendants that the state courts have.</p>
<h2>In what circumstances would a plea deal be offered?</h2>
<p>It’s what we do every day – 95% of the criminal court cases in America are resolved through plea deals. The system would break if everyone charged with a crime went to trial. It’s standard. </p>
<p>It’s a regular process. Before the judge signs off, you have a good understanding of what the judge is going to do. I was surprised about the change in the Hunter Biden case today. I’m always taken aback when a judge doesn’t accept a plea. That always surprises me because these things are worked out beforehand between the parties.</p>
<p>It’s just a standard thing you do. The hard part is in the negotiation beforehand. Each side works to get a deal in their best interests and to make sure everyone’s on the same sheet of music. In this case, they weren’t. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539656/original/file-20230726-25-x615el.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A gray granite building with a black limousine in front of it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539656/original/file-20230726-25-x615el.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539656/original/file-20230726-25-x615el.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539656/original/file-20230726-25-x615el.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539656/original/file-20230726-25-x615el.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539656/original/file-20230726-25-x615el.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539656/original/file-20230726-25-x615el.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539656/original/file-20230726-25-x615el.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The J. Caleb Boggs Federal Building in Delaware on July 26, 2023, where Hunter Biden’s case was reviewed by a judge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/united-states-president-joe-bidens-son-hunter-biden-exits-news-photo/1556770971?adppopup=true">Celal Gunes/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Does a judge always have to sign off on a plea deal?</h2>
<p>A defendant’s guilty plea, along with terms of a plea agreement between the defense and prosecution, goes into effect after the judge accepts the defendant’s plea. Plea agreements occur every day throughout the country. It’s a regular process of prosecutors and defense attorneys coming to agreements in plea deals. So all parties have a good understanding of what the judge is going to do. But, as we saw in the Hunter Biden case, sometimes judges reject plea deals.</p>
<h2>Reportedly, according to Hunter Biden’s attorneys, their client was offered broad immunity from prosecution in perpetuity. Is such a deal common?</h2>
<p>That type of immunity is rare. I would be surprised if the Department of Justice offered such immunity.</p>
<p><em>This story has been updated to clarify the role of judges in approving plea agreements.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210531/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Plea deals are common in American criminal courts. But in the federal government’s tax case against Hunter Biden, the judge refused to sign off on a deal.Lorna Grisby, Politics & Society EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2077792023-06-29T12:17:01Z2023-06-29T12:17:01ZDisasters like bridge collapses put transportation agencies’ emergency plans to the test<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584441/original/file-20240326-18-k42fw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C5150%2C3193&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A container ship collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on March 26, 2024, collapsing a section of the bridge. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MarylandBridgeCollapse/3ab19a4aa7274ec49065520bb79aa9ea/photo">AP Photo/Steve Ruark</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A container ship <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baltimore-bridge-collapse-53169b379820032f832de4016c655d1b">rammed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore</a> around 1:30 a.m. on March 26, 2024, causing a portion of the bridge to collapse into Baltimore Harbor. Officials called the event a mass casualty and were searching for people in the waters of the busy port.</em> </p>
<p><em>This event occurred less than a year after <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2023/06/11/bridge-collapse-philadelphia-interstate-95/">a portion of Interstate 95 collapsed</a> in north Philadelphia during a truck fire. That disaster was initially expected to snarl traffic for months, but a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/06/23/i-95-bridge-reopening-friday/70349844007/">temporary six-lane roadway</a> was constructed in 12 days to serve motorists while a permanent overpass was rebuilt.</em></p>
<p><em>U.S. cities often face similar challenges when <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/memphis-cracked-i-40-bridge-creates-headache-traffic-shipping-n1267187">routine wear and tear</a>, <a href="https://abc7news.com/loma-prieta-quake-earthquake-when-was-magnitude/5605965/">natural disasters</a> or major accidents damage roads and bridges. Transportation engineer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RxdHmbMAAAAJ&hl=en">Lee D. Han</a> explains how planners, transit agencies and city governments anticipate and manage these disruptions.</em></p>
<h2>How do agencies plan for disruptions like this?</h2>
<p>Planning is a central mission for state and metropolitan transportation agencies. </p>
<p>Traditional long-term planning focuses on anticipating and preparing for growing and shifting transportation demand patterns. These changes are driven by regional and national economic and population trends. </p>
<p>Shorter-term planning is about ensuring mobility and safety during service disruptions. These events can include construction, major scheduled events like <a href="https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/bonnaroo-traffic-tdot-prepares-for-traffic-in-manchester/">music festivals</a>, traffic incidents such as crashes and hazardous material spills, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2007)133:1(3)">emergency evacuations</a>, and events like the bridge collapse in Baltimore.</p>
<p>Agencies have limited resources, so they typically set priorities based on how likely a given scenario is, its potential adverse effects and the countermeasures that officials have available. </p>
<p>For bridges, the <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/">Federal Highway Administration</a> sets standards and requires states to carry out periodic inspections. In addition, agencies develop a detouring plan for each bridge in case of a structural failure or service disruption. In Baltimore, Key Bridge traffic will be <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/travel-around-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-baltimore-traffic/">routed through two tunnels</a> that pass under the harbor, but trucks carrying hazardous materials will have to take longer detours.</p>
<p>Major bridges, such as those at Mississippi River crossings, are crucial to the nation’s economy and security. They require significant planning, commitment and coordination between multiple agencies. There usually are multiple contingency plans in place to deal with immediate traffic control, incident response and field operations during longer-term bridge repair or reconstruction projects. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Francis Scott Key Bridge carries more than 30,000 vehicles daily past the Port of Baltimore, which serves many container ships daily.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>What are some major challenges of rerouting traffic?</h2>
<p>Bridges are potential choke points in highway networks. When a bridge fails, traffic immediately stops and begins to flow elsewhere, even without a formal detouring plan. Transportation agencies need to build or find excess capacity before a bridge fails, so that the disrupted traffic has alternative routes. </p>
<p>This is usually manageable in major urban areas that have many parallel routes and bridges and built-in redundancy in their road networks. But for rural areas, failure of a major bridge can mean extra hours or even days of travel. </p>
<p>When traffic has to be rerouted off an interstate highway, it can cause safety and access problems. If large trucks are diverted to local streets that were not designed for such vehicles, they may get stuck on railroad tracks or in spaces too small for them to turn around. Heavy trucks can damage roads and bridges with low weight limits, and tall trucks may be too large to fit through low-clearance underpasses.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A highway at night, jammed with traffic on one side, the other side empty." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traffic is jammed on I-10 westbound amid evacuations ahead of Hurricane Delta on Oct. 8, 2020, in Lake Charles, Louisiana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/traffic-is-jammed-on-i-10-westbound-amid-evacuations-ahead-news-photo/1279252464">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Successful rerouting requires a lot of coordination between agencies and jurisdictions. They may have to adjust road signal timing to deal with extra cars and changed traffic patterns. Local drivers may need to be directed away from these alternative routes to prevent major congestion. </p>
<p>It’s also important to communicate with navigation apps like <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/about/#!/">Google Maps</a> and <a href="https://www.waze.com/apps/">Waze</a>, which every driver has access to. Route choices that speed up individual trips may cause serious congestion if everyone decides to take the same alternate route and it doesn’t have enough capacity to handle the extra traffic.</p>
<h2>Can these events permanently change commuting and traffic patterns?</h2>
<p>In some cases, yes. Some repairs take months, such as the 2022 crack in the <a href="https://www.ualrpublicradio.org/local-regional-news/2022-02-21/how-authorities-missed-the-flaw-that-nearly-brought-down-the-i-40-bridge">I-40 Hernando De Soto Bridge</a> across the Mississippi River in Memphis, Tennessee. Others can stretch over years, such as the 2007 collapse of the <a href="https://www.lrl.mn.gov/guides/guides?issue=bridges">I-35W bridge</a> in Minneapolis. Some structures are rebuilt elsewhere, like the <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/public-roads/marchapril-1998/replacing-oaklands-cypress-freeway">I-880 Cypress Street viaduct</a> in Oakland, California, which collapsed during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. </p>
<p>While traffic is disrupted, motorists change their commute patterns or may even switch to other modes, such as buses or commuter rail. But after repairs are completed, even if some commuters don’t return to their old routes, new traffic soon will take advantage of the restored capacity. In the end, it’s hard to tell just by looking at usage whether commuters have changed their travel patterns permanently.</p>
<h2>Will money from the 2021 infrastructure bill reduce the risk of these kinds of events?</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, things do fall apart. U.S. infrastructure has been <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/">deteriorating for decades</a>. The American Road & Transportation Builders Association has estimated that <a href="https://artbabridgereport.org/">1 in 3 U.S. bridges need repair</a>. </p>
<p>At the current rate, we are unlikely to catch up to a state of good repair any time soon. But strategic investments like the 2021 infrastructure bill can likely help repair and address critical deterioration concerns for some high-risk bridges, roads, dams and other structures. </p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">This time-lapse video shows crews working around the clock to build a temporary roadway at the site of a collapsed overpass on Interstate 95 in north Philadelphia.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Can public transit fill part of the gap?</h2>
<p>Public transit may be able to fill the gap in several ways when key roadway links are destroyed or damaged.</p>
<p>Fixed-route rail transit services, such as Washington, D.C.’s Metro and commuter rail services in Chicago, typically have exclusive rights of way, which let them travel at higher speed than buses on surface streets. They also have high capacity that can be increased by adding more cars to each train or running trains more frequently. </p>
<p>If those systems’ routes are not disrupted due to something like a bridge collapse, they may be able to operate above their normal loads. Drivers can shift to transit as long as their trip origins and destinations are conveniently located near transit stations.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1772554130365550738"}"></div></p>
<p>Bus transit services don’t usually have exclusive rights of way or means to add extra carrying capacity per vehicle. But they have more flexibility to extend the service areas that they cover and connect otherwise non-walkable locales.</p>
<p>Coordinating use of various transit services and creatively adjusting bus lines could address some local travel needs, such as daily commutes and school and shopping trips. But local public transit services struggle to fill longer-distance gaps that extend beyond their service areas.</p>
<p>In major urban areas like Philadelphia that have large populations and have invested a lot in their transit systems, public transit could carry as much as 25% of daily commute trips. But for disruptions outside of major cities, such as a bridge collapse on an interstate highway in a rural area, public transit probably won’t have much of a role.</p>
<p>It’s also important to note that public transit services are for moving people. Freight shipments, which rely on trucks and other specialized vehicles, also need to get through or around disrupted zones. This often requires large commercial trucks either to use nearby local streets that weren’t designed for such big, heavy vehicles, or to make long-distance detours. That increases delays, pollution, safety risks and transportation costs that will eventually be passed on to consumers.</p>
<p><em>This is an update of an article originally published on June 29, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee D. Han receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Transportation. </span></em></p>Transportation agencies plan for events like major bridge or highway collapses, but these events can disrupt traffic for months and affect residential neighborhoods as well as motorists.Lee D. Han, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2083262023-06-23T12:29:43Z2023-06-23T12:29:43ZTitan submersible disaster underscores dangers of deep-sea exploration – an engineer explains why most ocean science is conducted with crewless submarines<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533576/original/file-20230622-19-hnt7xe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4594%2C3055&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Researchers are increasingly using small, autonomous underwater robots to collect data in the world's oceans.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/noaaphotolib/27555260673/">NOAA Teacher at Sea Program,NOAA Ship PISCES</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Rescuers spotted debris from the tourist submarine Titan on the ocean floor near the wreck of the Titanic on June 22, 2023, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/22/us/titanic-missing-submarine/heres-the-latest-on-the-missing-submersible">indicating that the vessel suffered a catastrophic failure</a> and the five people aboard were killed.</em></p>
<p><em>Bringing people to the bottom of the deep ocean is inherently dangerous. At the same time, climate change means collecting data from the world’s oceans is more vital than ever. Purdue University mechanical engineer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=z1BeTeYAAAAJ&hl=en">Nina Mahmoudian</a> explains how researchers reduce the risks and costs associated with deep-sea exploration: Send down subs, but keep people on the surface.</em></p>
<h2>Why is most underwater research conducted with remotely operated and autonomous underwater vehicles?</h2>
<p>When we talk about water studies, we’re talking about vast areas. And covering vast areas requires tools that can work for extended periods of time, sometimes months. Having people aboard underwater vehicles, especially for such long periods of time, is expensive and dangerous.</p>
<p>One of the tools researchers use is <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/rov.html">remotely operated vehicles</a>, or ROVs. Basically, there is a cable between the vehicle and operator that allows the operator to command and move the vehicle, and the vehicle can relay data in real time. ROV technology has progressed a lot to be able to reach deep ocean – up to a depth of 6,000 meters (19,685 feet). It’s also better able to provide the mobility necessary for observing the sea bed and gathering data.</p>
<p><a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/auv.html">Autonomous underwater vehicles</a> provide another opportunity for underwater exploration. They are usually not tethered to a ship. They are typically programmed ahead of time to do a specific mission. And while they are underwater they usually don’t have constant communication. At some interval, they surface, relay the whole amount of data that they have gathered, change the battery or recharge and receive renewed instructions before again submerging and continuing their mission.</p>
<h2>What can remotely operated and autonomous underwater vehicles do that crewed submersibles can’t, and vice versa?</h2>
<p>Crewed submersibles will be exciting for the public and those involved and helpful for the increased capabilities humans bring in operating instruments and making decisions, similar to crewed space exploration. However, it will be much more expensive compared with uncrewed explorations because of the required size of the platforms and the need for life-support systems and safety systems. Crewed submersibles today <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/15/science/piloted-deep-sea-research-is-bottoming-out.html">cost tens of thousands of dollars a day</a> to operate.</p>
<p>Use of unmanned systems will provide better opportunities for exploration at less cost and risk in operating over vast areas and in inhospitable locations. Using remotely operated and autonomous underwater vehicles gives operators the opportunity to perform tasks that are dangerous for humans, like observing under ice and detecting underwater mines.</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Remotely operated vehicles can operate under Antarctic ice and other dangerous places.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How has the technology for deep ocean research evolved?</h2>
<p>The technology has advanced dramatically in recent years due to progress in sensors and computation. There has been great progress in <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fs21237849">miniaturization of acoustic sensors and sonars</a> for use underwater. Computers have also become more miniaturized, capable and power efficient. There has been a lot of work on battery technology and connectors that are watertight. <a href="https://www.additivemanufacturing.media/articles/autonomous-underwater-vehicle-with-3d-printed-hull-the-cool-parts-show-24">Additive manufacturing and 3D printing also help build hulls</a> and components that can withstand the high pressures at depth at much lower costs.</p>
<p>There has also been great progress toward increasing autonomy using more advanced algorithms, in addition to traditional methods for navigation, localization and detection. For example, machine learning algorithms can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/ICITR49409.2019.9407797">help a vehicle detect and classify objects</a>, whether stationary like a pipeline or mobile like schools of fish. </p>
<h2>What kinds of discoveries have been made using remotely operated and autonomous underwater vehicles?</h2>
<p>One example is underwater gliders. These are buoyancy-driven autonomous underwater vehicles. They can stay in water for months. They can collect data on pressure, temperature and salinity as they go up and down in water. All of these are very helpful for researchers to have an understanding of changes that are happening in oceans. </p>
<p>One of these platforms traveled across the North Atlantic Ocean <a href="https://www.marine.ie/site-area/news-events/news/silbo-autonomous-glider-finds-its-way-ireland-having-travelled-across">from the coast of Massachusetts to Ireland</a> for nearly a year in 2016 and 2017. The amount of data that was captured in that amount of time was unprecedented. To put it in perspective, a vehicle like that costs about $200,000. The operators were remote. Every eight hours the glider came to the surface, got connected to GPS and said, “Hey, I am here,” and the crew basically gave it the plan for the next leg of the mission. If a crewed ship was sent to gather that amount of data for that long it would cost in the millions. </p>
<p>In 2019, researchers used an autonomous underwater vehicle to <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/submarine-under-thwaites-glacier-gauge-rising-seas/">collect invaluable data</a> about the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7254">seabed beneath the Thwaites glacier</a> in Antarctica.</p>
<p>Energy companies are also using remotely operated and autonomous underwater vehicles for <a href="https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/deepocean-autonomous-drone-offshore/">inspecting and monitoring</a> offshore renewable energy and oil and gas infrastructure on the seabed.</p>
<h2>Where is the technology headed?</h2>
<p>Underwater systems are slow-moving platforms, and if researchers can deploy them in large numbers that would give them an advantage for covering large areas of ocean. A great deal of effort is being put into coordination and fleet-oriented autonomy of these platforms, as well as into advancing data gathering using onboard sensors such as cameras, sonars and dissolved oxygen sensors. Another aspect of advancing vehicle autonomy is real-time underwater decision-making and data analysis.</p>
<h2>What is the focus of your research on these submersibles?</h2>
<p>My team and I focus on developing navigational and mission-planning algorithms for persistent operations, meaning long-term missions with minimal human oversight. The goal is to respond to two of the main constraints in the deployment of autonomous systems. One is battery life. The other is unknown situations. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_kS0_-qc_r0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The author’s research includes a project to allow autonomous underwater vehicles to recharge their batteries without human intervention.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For battery life, we work on at-sea recharging, both underwater and surface water. We are developing tools for autonomous deployment, recovery, recharging and data transfer for longer missions at sea. For unknown situations, we are working on recognizing and avoiding obstacles and adapting to different ocean currents – basically allowing a vehicle to navigate in rough conditions on its own. </p>
<p>To adapt to changing dynamics and component failures, we are working on methodologies to help the vehicle detect the change and compensate to be able to continue and finish the mission.</p>
<p>These efforts will enable long-term ocean studies including observing environmental conditions and mapping uncharted areas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208326/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nina Mahmoudian receives funding from National Science Foundation and Office of Naval Research. </span></em></p>Dramatic improvements in computing, sensors and submersible engineering are making it possible for researchers to ramp up data collection from the oceans while also keeping people out of harm’s way.Nina Mahmoudian, Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2076992023-06-16T12:37:28Z2023-06-16T12:37:28ZThe US will send depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine – a health physicist explains their military, health and environmental effects<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532028/original/file-20230614-21396-ritl1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5760%2C3811&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Depleted uranium shells will equip M1A1 Abrams battle tanks, also from the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/wEMMNV">Lance Cpl. Julio McGraw, USMC/Flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Biden administration has agreed to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-set-to-approve-depleted-uranium-tank-rounds-for-ukraine-f6d98dcf">provide Ukraine with depleted uranium shells</a> to equip M1A1 Abrams tanks that the U.S. is sending there. Britain has already delivered tanks to Ukraine equipped with depleted-uranium shells.</em></p>
<p><em>DU munitions, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/radtown/depleted-uranium">developed in the 1970s</a>, are not nuclear weapons and do not produce a nuclear explosion. But soldiers or civilians can be exposed to the uranium, either in combat or afterward. Health physicist <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Kathryn-Higley">Kathryn Higley</a> explains what depleted uranium is and what’s known about potential health and environmental risks.</em></p>
<h2>What is depleted uranium?</h2>
<p>Uranium, symbolized by the letter U, is a naturally occurring element that is radioactive. Natural uranium is composed primarily of three isotopes: U-234, U-235 and U-238. </p>
<p>These isotopes are all uranium and have the same chemical characteristics, but they have slightly different masses, as indicated by the numbers 234, 235 and 238. Depleted uranium is mainly U-238, with small amounts of other isotopes, including U-235. </p>
<p>The isotope U-235 <a href="https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/basic-ref/glossary/fissile-material.html">is fissile</a>, which means that it can be split in a reaction that releases a lot of energy. U-235 in fairly low concentrations is used as fuel in commercial nuclear reactors; in high concentrations, it can power nuclear weapons. </p>
<p>Engineers use <a href="https://www.nrc.gov/materials/fuel-cycle-fac/ur-enrichment.html">a process called enrichment</a> to extract U-235 from natural uranium ore. What’s left over after this process removes some of the U-235 is called depleted uranium. </p>
<p>All uranium is radioactive, and each isotope <a href="https://www.iaea.org/topics/spent-fuel-management/depleted-uranium">has its own unique half-life</a>. U-238, the most abundant naturally occurring isotope, constitutes about 99.27% of all natural uranium. It takes approximately 4.5 billion years – roughly the life of the Earth – for half of a given quantity of uranium-238 to decay into other elements. U-235 has a half life of about 700 million years and represents about 0.72% of natural uranium. </p>
<p>Depleted uranium is <a href="https://www.iaea.org/topics/spent-fuel-management/depleted-uranium">about 40% less radioactive than natural uranium</a>. All isotopes of uranium decay over time, emitting both radiation and energetic particles and transforming into different chemical elements. In this process, they produce specific isotopes of other radioactive elements such as thorium, protactinium and radium.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KiJQSIrIIio?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Depleted uranium tank shells are extremely hard and dense and can penetrate the walls of Russian tanks.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why is depleted uranium used in munitions?</h2>
<p>Depleted uranium can be manufactured into a very dense material – <a href="https://hps.org/documents/dufactsheet.pdf">about 1.7 times more dense than lead</a>. This gives it some desirable characteristics in munitions.</p>
<p>Because DU is a byproduct of the nuclear fuel cycle, plenty of it is readily available. Formed into a projectile, such as a bullet or shell, its high density helps the munition penetrate into a target. Advanced tanks use DU in their armor to protect against armor-piercing munitions.</p>
<p>DU’s density also gives the munition a higher momentum, which enables it to push through materials. Once the munition penetrates a target, it may fragment into smaller pieces and ignite, <a href="https://www.orau.org/health-physics-museum/collection/consumer/depleted-uranium/penetrators.html">causing further damage</a>. </p>
<h2>Where have depleted uranium munitions been used?</h2>
<p>Depleted uranium munitions have been used in the Gulf War in 1990-1991, the Kosovo conflict in the Balkans in 1998-1999 and in U.S. operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. In addition to the U.S. and the U.K., Russia, France and China are known to have DU munitions in their arsenals, and other <a href="https://www.icbuw.eu/depleted-uranium-weapons-state-of-affairs-2022/">countries may be importing them</a>. </p>
<p>DU also has nonmilitary applications. Its high density makes it useful for stopping radiation in medical, research and nuclear facilities. It can also be used as ballast to balance weight and provide stability in ships and aircraft. </p>
<p>The alpha radiation that DU emits is not strong enough to penetrate human skin, so <a href="https://www.webmd.com/health-insurance/what-to-know-depleted-uranium-exposure-veterans">just being near depleted uranium is not a health risk</a>. But it may become a health hazard if it is <a href="https://www.epa.gov/radtown/depleted-uranium">ingested or inhaled</a>, or shrapnel fragments are <a href="https://www.publichealth.va.gov/exposures/toxic_fragments/index.asp">retained in the body</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532030/original/file-20230614-23-o4fbdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A row of munitions with pointed tips" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532030/original/file-20230614-23-o4fbdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532030/original/file-20230614-23-o4fbdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532030/original/file-20230614-23-o4fbdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532030/original/file-20230614-23-o4fbdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532030/original/file-20230614-23-o4fbdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532030/original/file-20230614-23-o4fbdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532030/original/file-20230614-23-o4fbdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Army 25 mm rounds of depleted uranium ammunition, photographed Feb. 11, 2004, in Tikrit, Iraq.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/row-of-us-army-25mm-rounds-of-depleted-uranium-ammunition-news-photo/2973518">Stan Honda/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Will these munitions create health or environmental risks on Ukrainian soil?</h2>
<p>Numerous studies have investigated the <a href="https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/66930/W?sequence=1">potential health effects</a> of <a href="https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1106087.pdf">exposure to depleted uranium</a>. They include health studies of soldiers hit by DU shrapnel, and biomonitoring – collecting samples of urine, feces, fingernail clippings and hair from exposed individuals. Investigations have included reviews of military personnel exposed <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/11979/review-of-the-toxicologic-and-radiologic-risks-to-military-personnel-from-exposures-to-depleted-uranium-during-and-after-combat">during and after combat</a>.</p>
<p>Some studies have observed uranium above natural concentrations in samples collected from soldiers serving in the Gulf War, Bosnia and Afghanistan who had embedded DU fragments in their bodies. In other instances, researchers studying <a href="https://www.publichealth.va.gov/exposures/gulfwar/medically-unexplained-illness.asp">Gulf War Illness</a> in veterans did not find a difference in uranium concentrations in urine between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82535-3">exposed and unexposed groups</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. Department of Defense and Veterans Administration started monitoring service members for DU exposure during the Gulf War, and this program is still running. So far, the agencies have not observed adverse clinical effects <a href="https://www.health.mil/Military-Health-Topics/Health-Readiness/Environmental-Exposures/Depleted-Uranium/Effects-and-Exposures/Health-Effects">related to documented exposures</a>.</p>
<p>Fragments and much smaller particles from exploded DU munitions can remain in soil long after conflicts end. This has raised concerns about possible radiation or toxic threats to people who come across these materials, such as local residents or peacekeeping forces. In general, studies of people who were inadvertently exposed to battlefield remnants of depleted uranium munitions show <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.03.024">low radiation doses</a> and <a href="https://www-pub.iaea.org/mtcd/publications/pdf/pub1164_web.pdf">low levels of chemical exposure</a> that were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.jes.7500551">generally indistinguishable from background level</a>. </p>
<p>In terms of environmental impacts, the scientific literature is largely silent on the extent to which plants or animals can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2019.106077">absorb DU from munition fragments</a>, although laboratory studies indicate that this is possible. Researchers and health professionals agree that very high levels of uranium, depleted or otherwise, may cause chemical toxicity in plants – but if this were to happen, it would likely be in the immediate vicinity <a href="https://doi.org/10.2172/4296157">where the munitions exploded</a>. Scientists continue to examine how DU particles behave in the environment, in order to improve our ability to predict <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2019.106077">long-term environmental effects</a>.</p>
<p>It’s already clear that large areas of Ukraine’s territory will contain the residues of conflict, including <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230221-the-toxic-legacy-of-the-ukraine-war">weapon fragments, spilled fuels and explosive residues</a>, long after the fighting there ends. The U.S. and U.K. governments clearly believe that providing DU munitions will improve Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russian tanks and bring this conflict to an end.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207699/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Higley receives / has received funding from U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the International Atomic Energy Agency, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Vanderbilt University. She is affiliated with the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, the International Commission on Radiological Protection, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Nuclear Energy Agency. </span></em></p>Depleted uranium munitions are bad news for enemy tanks, but are not nuclear weapons, and studies have shown that they pose low risks of radiation or chemical exposure.Kathryn Higley, Distinguished Professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Oregon State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071642023-06-08T12:30:43Z2023-06-08T12:30:43ZWill faster federal reviews speed up the clean energy shift? Two legal scholars explain what the National Environmental Policy Act does and doesn’t do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530445/original/file-20230606-19-c60dar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C3%2C2396%2C1589&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NEPA requires federal agencies to analyze environmental impacts of projects like interstate highway construction.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/big-dig-workers-work-in-the-area-of-ft-point-on-the-route-news-photo/114791218">John Bohn/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The National Environmental Policy Act, enacted in 1970, is widely viewed as a <a href="https://www.eli.org/land-biodiversity/national-environmental-policy-act-nepa">keystone U.S. environmental law</a>. For any major federal action that affects the environment, such as building an interstate highway or licensing a nuclear power plant, NEPA requires relevant agencies to analyze environmental impacts, consider reasonable alternatives and accept public input. It also allows citizens to sue if they believe government has not complied.</em> </p>
<p><em>Critics argue that NEPA reviews <a href="https://www.aei.org/articles/reform-of-the-national-environmental-policy-act/">delay projects and drive up costs</a>. In May 2023 negotiations over raising the federal debt ceiling, President Joe Biden agreed to certain <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/05/28/background-press-call-on-the-bipartisan-budget-agreement/">changes to NEPA reviews</a>, which both the White House and congressional Republicans said would streamline permitting for infrastructure projects. Legal scholars <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=x0K9avIAAAAJ&hl=en">J.B. Ruhl</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qD5L-u0AAAAJ&hl=en">James Salzman</a> explain these changes and what they mean for protecting the environment and expanding clean energy production.</em></p>
<h2>What kinds of projects typically require NEPA reviews?</h2>
<p>The statutory text of NEPA is quite sparse and open-ended. When people speak of what NEPA requires, they really are talking about how the White House <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/ceq/">Council on Environmental Quality</a>, or CEQ, federal agencies and the courts have implemented the law over the past 50 years. </p>
<p>The simple requirement is for agencies to create a detailed statement on the impacts of any major federal action that significantly affects the environment. A whole body of law and policy creates filters that sort projects into different NEPA buckets. </p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">NEPA requires all federal agencies to analyze the environmental impacts of their major actions, consider alternatives and receive public comment.</span></figcaption>
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<p>First, only projects that will be carried out, funded or authorized by a federal agency are subject to NEPA. That’s a pretty big universe, but it also excludes a lot. For example, a wind farm built on private land by a private utility might not require any federal funding or approval. That means it wouldn’t be subject to NEPA. </p>
<p>If a project is subject to NEPA, the federal agency that has primary oversight assesses its impacts to decide how much analysis is needed. Many agencies use a classification known as <a href="https://ceq.doe.gov/nepa-practice/categorical-exclusions.html">categorical exclusions</a> to winnow out minor actions that they know have no significant impacts, either individually or cumulatively. For example, the Interior Department categorically excludes planned burns to clear brush on <a href="https://bianepatracker2.doi.gov/doi_and_bureau_categorical_exclusions.pdf">areas smaller than 4,500 acres</a>. </p>
<p>If the expected impacts are more extensive, but it’s not clear by how much, the agency can prepare an environmental assessment. If that assessment finds the impacts to the human environment will not be significant, that’s the end of the NEPA process. </p>
<p>If the impacts are significant, the agency will prepare a <a href="https://cdxapps.epa.gov/cdx-enepa-II/public/action/eis/search;jsessionid=A75C26C6A17A75907053FA67AC41B7AE?search=&__fsk=2062199394#results">full-blown environmental impact statement</a>, or EIS, which is a far more intensive process. <a href="https://ceq.doe.gov/laws-regulations/regulations.html">CEQ guidelines</a> establish an elaborate template of topics agencies must evaluate, and the public has opportunities to comment on a draft version. </p>
<p>A CEQ review of EISs prepared by all federal agencies from 2010 through 2018 found that, on average, it took <a href="https://ceq.doe.gov/docs/nepa-practice/CEQ_EIS_Timeline_Report_2020-6-12.pdf">about four and a half years</a> to issue an EIS, not including added time if someone sued. The lengths of these reviews ranged widely but <a href="https://ceq.doe.gov/docs/nepa-practice/CEQ_EIS_Length_Report_2020-6-12.pdf">averaged 575 pages</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Flow chart showing numerous steps in the NEPA process." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1073&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1073&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1073&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A schematic of the NEPA process.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/agency/nepa/process.html">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If an agency conducts lots of the same actions under a particular program, such as timber leasing on federal land, it might conduct a high-level programmatic EIS to cover the large-scale issues and then follow up with individual NEPA analyses for specific projects. </p>
<p>Decisions not to issue an EIS can be challenged in court. So can the EIS itself if critics believe that it’s inadequate.</p>
<h2>What are NEPA critics’ central arguments?</h2>
<p>Critiques of NEPA come from many different interests. The law mainly affects land development, industry and resource extraction activities such as logging, mining and drilling for oil and gas, particularly on federal public lands. </p>
<p>NEPA requires an impact assessment, but it doesn’t prescribe any particular outcome. Still, it unquestionably can add substantial time and cost to any significant project. If a project is controversial, interested parties can submit public comments that get their views on the record. If opponents aren’t happy with the final EIS, they can sue the agency responsible for the decision in federal court. </p>
<p>Between agency review and litigation, NEPA can add many years to a project’s development timeline before it is “shovel ready.” For example, it takes <a href="https://www.perc.org/2022/06/14/does-environmental-review-worsen-the-wildfire-crisis/">roughly four to seven years</a> to complete environmental reviews for prescribed burns that the U.S. Forest Service carries out to reduce wildfire risks.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1651944242137145344"}"></div></p>
<p>Supporters argue that NEPA reviews have <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/resources/never-eliminate-public-advice-nepa-success-stories">avoided many bad decisions</a>. In our view, the NEPA process is an important feature of the country’s stewardship of its natural resources. But we also share the growing concern that it can be used to <a href="https://twitter.com/AlecStapp/status/1654456917081595905">delay building renewable energy infrastructure</a> that the U.S. urgently needs to mitigate climate change. </p>
<h2>Did the debt ceiling agreement significantly change the NEPA process?</h2>
<p>Many of the changes are little more than tweaks. Others codify long-standing practices based on how the Council on Environmental Quality, agencies and courts implement the law. </p>
<p>One notable change is requiring a single lead agency and a single environmental impact statement for projects, even when those projects require multiple agency approvals. There also are some new time and page limits. For example, environmental impact statements will be required to be completed within two years and be no more that 150 pages long for most projects, and 300 pages for the most complex projects. </p>
<p>There also are some changes to definitions, such as what constitutes a “major federal action,” that narrow NEPA’s scope to some degree, although it will take time to sort out their meaning. Overall, we do not see these changes as a major overhaul of NEPA. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dredge deposits crushed shells off a floating platform." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers places crushed shells in Maryland’s Tred Avon River as part of efforts to restore the Chesapeake Bay’s historic oyster reefs. After a 2009 NEPA review spotlighted risks associated with the proposed use of disease-resistant imported Chinese oysters, native oysters were used instead.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/QosdpW">Sean Fritzges, U.S. Army/Flickr</a></span>
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<h2>Will the changes speed up work on clean energy systems?</h2>
<p>Maybe, but not nearly as much as needed. First, NEPA applies to projects that need federal funding or approval, such as under the Endangered Species Act. Getting that money or agency green light can also involve delays and litigation independent of the NEPA review.</p>
<p>Second, many state and local laws can affect large renewable energy projects, and those statutes can also be used to slow projects down. The bottom line is that to move the needle, politicians will have to do more to reform the project review process.</p>
<p>The debt ceiling agreement left several big questions unaddressed. They include <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-needs-a-macrogrid-to-move-electricity-from-areas-that-make-it-to-areas-that-need-it-155938">where to build high-voltage electric transmission lines</a>; which <a href="https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/interior-department-outlines-roadmap-continued-renewable-energy-progress-public-lands">federal public lands and offshore waters</a> can be used for power lines and renewable power production; and where to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-is-worried-about-its-critical-minerals-supply-chains-essential-for-electric-vehicles-wind-power-and-the-nations-defense-157465">mine for essential minerals</a>.
Beyond those immediate priorities, if carbon sequestration technology can be developed and scaled up, the U.S. will need an enormous <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-carbon-capture-and-storage-epas-new-power-plant-standards-proposal-gives-it-a-boost-but-ccs-is-not-a-quick-solution-205462">buildout of carbon capture and storage infrastructure</a> to meet net-zero goals. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">As renewable energy scales up in the U.S., local opposition could impede some utility-scale projects.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>All of these involve incredibly complex permitting processes, and tweaking NEPA won’t change that. Other hot-button issues – including federal preemption of state and local laws, impacts on Native American cultural lands, and environmental justice – will make further permitting reforms politically difficult. </p>
<p>Even this first small measure was hotly contested, and happened now only because it was tied to the debt limit legislation. As the inclusion of federal approval for the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/31/debt-deal-mountain-valley-pipeline/">Mountain Valley gas pipeline</a> in the debt ceiling agreement shows, in politics you need a quid in exchange for a quo. We expect to see a lot more deal-making if Congress takes permitting reform seriously.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207164/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>J.B. Ruhl is Of Counsel to Smith-Robertson, a law firm located in Austin, Texas that occasionally provides Endangered Species Act, NEPA, and other environmental compliance counseling to infrastructure development projects, including wind power production facilities. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Salzman serves on the board of the Environmental Defense Center, an environmental advocacy group on the central coast of California.</span></em></p>Do environmental reviews improve projects or delay them and drive up costs? Two legal scholars explain how the law works and how it could influence the ongoing transition to renewable energy.J.B. Ruhl, Professor of Law, Director, Program on Law and Innovation, and Co-director, Energy, Environment and Land Use Program, Vanderbilt UniversityJames Salzman, Professor of Environmental Law, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2062232023-05-23T16:02:49Z2023-05-23T16:02:49ZWhy are killer whales attacking boats? Expert Q&A<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527778/original/file-20230523-19-z9jh60.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5646%2C3769&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A killer whale in the Strait of Gibraltar.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/killer-whale-strait-gibraltar-moroccan-fishing-1705505377">Nacho Goytre/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Orcas living off Europe’s Iberian coast recently <a href="https://www.livescience.com/animals/orcas/orcas-have-sunk-3-boats-in-europe-and-appear-to-be-teaching-others-to-do-the-same-but-why">struck and sunk</a> a yacht in the Strait of Gibraltar. Scientists suspect that this is the third vessel this subpopulation of killer whales has capsized since May 2020, when a female orca believed to be the originator of this behaviour suffered a traumatic encounter with a boat.</em></p>
<p><em>In most reported cases, orcas are biting, bending and breaking off the rudders of sailboats. So how did they learn to imitate this behaviour – and why? We asked Dr Luke Rendell, who researches learning, behaviour and communication among marine mammals at the University of St Andrews.</em></p>
<p><strong>Why do you think orcas appear to be attacking boats off the Iberian coast?</strong></p>
<p>Any answer that I (or anyone else, really) give to this question is speculation – we just don’t know enough about killer whale motivations to be certain. The puzzle for biologists is to understand how this behaviour developed. </p>
<p>The lack of obvious fitness-enhancing rewards (like food, for example) means this is unlikely to have evolved because it enabled the whales to better survive in their environment. That is what we would call an adaptive trait: it confers a direct evolutionary benefit by helping the animal find food, mate, or successfully raise offspring. </p>
<p>But I can say what this behaviour looks like. There are multiple accounts of single and groups of orcas developing idiosyncratic and not obviously adaptive habits. These range from one group engaging in what seemed like a short-term fad of carrying dead salmon on their heads, to another vocally mimicking sea lions (there may be an adaptive outcome to convincing sea lions that you are a sea lion too, not a voracious predator, but there’s no evidence of this occurring).</p>
<p>There are other kinds of behaviour that do appear to bring rewards – for example, captive orcas learning to regurgitate fish to use as bait for gulls, which they apparently prefer to eat over the fish. But the origin and spread of these boat attacks currently fits very well with the characterisation of a temporary fad, and it remains to be seen how long it persists.</p>
<p>If instead there is an adaptive explanation, my hunch is it has to do with curiosity sometimes leading to important innovations around food sources, which can then be shared.</p>
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<p><strong>How do you suspect this behaviour is being transmitted among killer whales in the region?</strong></p>
<p>This behaviour probably started with individual orcas, but would appear to spread through social learning. We recently published a <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsbl.2018.0314">paper</a> on a similar fad-like behaviour in bottlenose dolphins, where we identified the dolphin that promoted a tail-walking behaviour it had acquired during a temporary period of captivity. </p>
<p>This is pretty similar to the account of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mms.12947">an academic journal</a> on the recent yacht sinking, in that a specific individual was identified as the potential source. This orca was prompted to engage in the behaviour due to a past trauma – perhaps being struck by a boat rudder, according to the account. </p>
<p>The precise reason is very hard to know for sure, but we do know the behaviour has spread through her group. And it’s difficult to explain that dynamic without involving some kind of social learning – the spread of information.</p>
<p><strong>Is there evidence of killer whales behaving this way in the past?</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/_lrendell/status/1110551489569787904">I have experienced</a> orcas swimming very close to our boat in the waters near St Vincent, in the eastern Caribbean, during a research survey. Our vessel, like those involved in these interactions, was about the size of a large whale (a humpback, for instance). Maybe they were investigating us, but it never escalated to any kind of physical interaction. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527765/original/file-20230523-21-6opxah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black-and-white illustration of a sperm whale crunching a whaling boat in its jaws." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527765/original/file-20230523-21-6opxah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527765/original/file-20230523-21-6opxah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=941&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527765/original/file-20230523-21-6opxah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=941&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527765/original/file-20230523-21-6opxah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=941&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527765/original/file-20230523-21-6opxah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1182&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527765/original/file-20230523-21-6opxah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1182&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527765/original/file-20230523-21-6opxah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1182&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An illustration from an early edition of Herman Melville’s Moby-Dick.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moby-Dick#/media/File:Moby_Dick_p510_illustration.jpg">Augustus Burnham Shute</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My impression was that they were interested in the boat’s propeller, and the currents it created – they came so close on one occasion that we had to take the engine out of gear to prevent an injury. So, approaching boats is not novel. Damaging them in such a determined way is, however, not something I have ever heard orcas do before.</p>
<p>It is, of course, known to happen in other species – notably sperm whales, giving rise to the story of Moby Dick: a combination of accounts of a white whale off the South American coast dubbed “Mocha Dick”, and the account of the whaler Essex, sunk by a large sperm whale in equatorial waters.</p>
<p><strong>The subpopulation of orcas responsible for these attacks is critically endangered. Do you think the group’s conservation status is relevant in some way?</strong></p>
<p>I don’t think it’s particularly relevant to the origin and spread of the behaviour, but it is highly relevant to how we should manage this population. </p>
<p>If these killer whales continue attacking boats, it will make protecting them harder. Not only does interacting with revolving propellers increase the risk of injury to these animals, it also threatens people – from the injuring of crews to the sinking of vessels – which will create political pressure for something to be done.</p>
<p>Of course, small vessel operators do not need to navigate the areas along the Atlantic coasts of Spain and Portugal where these interactions with orcas have been happening. Preventing them from doing so would solve the problem – but for many boat operators and owners, this is their shortest route, while heading offshore makes for riskier passages. A loss of tourism revenue if these vessels stop will add to pressure for a permanent solution.</p>
<p>It is possible that some will call for these orcas to be controlled, up to and including having them killed if they continue to threaten human life and livelihoods. This poses significant ethical questions about our relationship with these animals.</p>
<p>Should we, as the species that ultimately holds the greatest power, vacate small, vulnerable vessels from the orcas’ habitat as part of a shifting relationship to the sea, which we know is <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-hot-water-heres-why-ocean-temperatures-are-the-hottest-on-record-204534">deteriorating</a> as a result of our actions? Or should we confer on ourselves the right to navigate as we please and control any nonhuman animals that impede it, up to and including culling them? </p>
<p>Historically, the latter view would almost certainly have prevailed, and perhaps it will here. But it is a question which society, rather than scientists, must answer, and it will be telling which way the relevant authorities ultimately turn.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pod of killer whales swimming side by side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527782/original/file-20230523-15600-kktgwf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527782/original/file-20230523-15600-kktgwf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527782/original/file-20230523-15600-kktgwf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527782/original/file-20230523-15600-kktgwf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527782/original/file-20230523-15600-kktgwf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527782/original/file-20230523-15600-kktgwf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527782/original/file-20230523-15600-kktgwf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Boat collisions are a significant cause of death among cetaceans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/killer-whale-orcinus-orca-408278515">Tory Kallman/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Reports indicate a ‘traumatised’ victim of a boat collision initiated the behaviour. Are notions of solidarity and self-defence among killer whales outlandish?</strong></p>
<p>I regard this as plausible speculation. The authors of the recent paper cast it as one of a number of assumptions about how the behaviour might have developed, with generally increased pressure on their habitat and the idea of natural curiosity as other options (the latter is what I think is most likely). </p>
<p>Notions of collective self-defence in cetaceans (aquatic mammals including whales, dolphins and porpoises) are far from outlandish. We have accounts of sperm whales rising to each other’s defence when orcas attack, for example. Solidarity is a more subjective issue, and we don’t have access to the internal mental states of these animals to really understand whether this is going on.</p>
<p>I can, however, point to a different cetacean: humpback whales apparently aid other species, notably seals, that are under attack from orcas. The scientist who led the description of this behaviour, <a href="https://mmi.oregonstate.edu/people/robert-pitman">Robert Pitman</a>, said he regards it as “inadvertent altruism” based on <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/why-did-humpback-whale-just-save-seals-life">a simple rule of thumb</a>: “When you hear a killer whale attack, go break it up.”</p>
<p>These accounts raise interesting questions about the motivations behind orcas attacking boats that we cannot yet answer. It is not impossible that these orcas perceive their own common aggressor in us – but it is also entirely possible they have no such concept.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206223/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Rendell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Orcas appear to be imitating the behaviour of one in particular by damaging sailboat rudders.Luke Rendell, Reader in Biology, University of St AndrewsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2012862023-05-10T12:28:23Z2023-05-10T12:28:23ZBlack queer college students want to explore their identity – but feel excluded by both Black and LGBTQ student groups<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524947/original/file-20230508-15-n57mo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Befriending other Black queer students can build a sense of safety and connection. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/afro-latinx-young-women-sitting-on-the-grass-in-a-royalty-free-image/1415722219">Juanmonino/E+ Collection/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>For his new book “<a href="https://nyupress.org/9781479803910/black-and-queer-on-campus/">Black and Queer on Campus</a>,” American studies professor Michael Jeffries interviewed 65 Black LGBTQ college students across the U.S. – 40 from historically Black colleges and universities, or HBCUs, and 25 from predominantly white schools.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked Jeffries to discuss what he learned about how queer Black students view LGBTQ student organizations, their general experiences on college campuses and their opinions about current events.</em></p>
<h2>What specific challenges do Black LGBTQ students face on college campuses?</h2>
<p>The Black LGBTQ students I interviewed understood that college is an opportunity to explore their identity. But many still struggled to move past the bigotry and difficult experiences they had growing up as young queer people.</p>
<p>Deron, a senior at a historically Black university who grew up in the suburbs of a large Southern city, explained, “When I was a teenager, [my mother] kind of kept me sheltered from the gay community. So it kind of made me develop a negative mindset toward the LGBT lifestyle. I mean, as far as participating in the community, she just shunned me away from it for a long time, and I had really negative thoughts about it up until this semester.”</p>
<p>Other major challenges were tied to the broader political environment. Students believed racist, homophobic and transphobic sentiments were being expressed with increased frequency, which made them angry, disappointed and fearful about the future of the United States. Several interviewees talked about the rising threat of white supremacy and the feeling that white supremacists on and around their campuses were emboldened during the Trump era. </p>
<p>Cat, a 19-year-old student at a large, predominantly white school, lamented that “seeing someone get up on a podium and spew hate and misinformation on a regular basis … and just the people making our decisions right now, it’s like, how did y'all get there? It’s like, you know how they got there, but then you’re losing faith in humanity by acknowledging that.”</p>
<p>Finally, students told me they didn’t feel a sense of belonging in either Black student organizations – which seemed to have little regard for queer Black folks – or LGTBQ spaces and student organizations, which were primarily white.</p>
<p>Candace, who attends a large, prestigious public university, told me that one of the problems that Black LGBTQ students face in white LGBTQ spaces is tokenism. She felt that queer Black folk are “there for the entertainment of white queers, and to be able to feel like they’re woke, or like they’re part of this group that really accepts people.” Albert, who also attends a large public university, described a serious blind spot within the primarily white LGBTQ organization on his campus, and the exclusion he experienced there.</p>
<p>“They would talk about like … dating in the gay community, or something like that. And I’m just like, they don’t really date Black people, so there’s that.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three young adults smile and pose together" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525164/original/file-20230509-21-9hrdjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525164/original/file-20230509-21-9hrdjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525164/original/file-20230509-21-9hrdjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525164/original/file-20230509-21-9hrdjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525164/original/file-20230509-21-9hrdjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525164/original/file-20230509-21-9hrdjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525164/original/file-20230509-21-9hrdjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Connecting with other Black LGBTQ students can help build a sense of safety and belonging.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/group-of-friends-laughing-and-having-fun-shot-royalty-free-image/1316648966">Justin Lambert/DigitalVision Collection/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How do they overcome those challenges?</h2>
<p>One of the most common and powerful ways that students said they overcome these challenges is by building community with one another.</p>
<p>“I know in meeting each other, [my queer friend and I] were both kind of like, ‘Wow, another one!’ And we’re always like, so excited,” said Parker, one of the few trans students I spoke with. “It’s like whenever Black queer people get around each other, I feel like we get strong in our personalities. … I know that there’s support around me. And it’s like these networks keep growing and growing.”</p>
<p>Abraham, a leader of the queer Black student organization at his historically Black university, explained the importance of his group as a collective that cultivated a sense of connection and safety.</p>
<p>“We started hanging out to where we spent all our time together,” he said. “Our organization became like a family. If we felt like someone in this family was being attacked by someone on this campus, we jumped in and said, ‘Yo, that’s not going to happen on our watch.’” </p>
<p>Abraham did not tell me that he or anyone he knows in the Black queer community had been physically attacked by people on campus. But he did say there were times he and his friends felt unsafe, in part because the campus was open enough that visitors could enter and exit freely.</p>
<h2>What stereotypes and threats to safety do Black queer students face today?</h2>
<p>Some students felt that common stereotypes about gay people still exert a powerful hold on the way queer folk are treated within Black communities.</p>
<p>Patricia, who attends a historically Black university, told me about her experience growing up in a small, predominantly Black town in the South.</p>
<p>“If you had ‘sugar in your tank,’ like they say, you got beat,” she said. “They’re in a generation in the ‘80s too where the AIDS epidemic broke out, and they also have that mentality like, 'Oh, if you’re gay, you’re going to have AIDS, or you’re going to get diseases.’”</p>
<p>Several students at predominantly white institutions told me they felt stereotyped and ignored. There was a sense that they were not taken seriously as students or did not deserve their positions at the college. </p>
<p>Ian, a student at a large public university in the Midwest, told me, “I think it’s only me and this other boy that is Black on my floor. Every time I walk down the hallway, or every time I just do regular things that they do, I get stares. … Like I was saying my name, what I’m majoring in and all, like everybody else was doing, but everyone was staring at me like I lost my mind. So that makes me feel uncomfortable.”</p>
<h2>Are students optimistic about the future?</h2>
<p>Though there were students who see progress with respect to LGBTQ issues, very few offered optimistic views of the future for Black people in America, including queer Black people. Some were extremely discouraged about the future, and they believe the U.S. is becoming a more hostile place for people like them.</p>
<p>Still, several students pointed to changes in American politics and culture, like the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/06/26/417717613/supreme-court-rules-all-states-must-allow-same-sex-marriages">legalization of same-sex marriage</a> in 2015 and the increasing <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-pop-culture/national-coming-day-15-celebrities-came-2022-far-rcna51467">visibility of LGBTQ celebrities</a>, that give them hope. As Ava, a junior at a private historically Black college, told me, “I don’t think that anything is indicative of the future. That’s why it’s the future – because it’s only made of possibility.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael P. Jeffries does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new book “Black and Queer on Campus” explores the range of experiences that Black LGBTQ students face at colleges across the US.Michael P. Jeffries, Professor of American Studies, Wellesley CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2040972023-04-28T12:46:41Z2023-04-28T12:46:41ZHow the US military used magazines to target ‘vulnerable’ groups with recruiting ads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523264/original/file-20230427-22-8gas0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C3840%2C2132&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ad agencies developed distinct ads for the U.S. military to reach different demographics over the years.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/young-military-cadet-enjoys-classroom-training-royalty-free-image/1004304340?phrase=military%20recruiting&adppopup=true">SDI Productions via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In his forthcoming book, “Tactical Inclusion: Difference and Vulnerability in U.S. Military Advertising,” Jeremiah Favara, a communication scholar at Gonzaga University, examines military recruitment ads published in three commercial magazines between 1973 – when the federal government ended the military draft – and 2016. The three magazines are Sports Illustrated, Ebony and Cosmopolitan. In the following Q&A, Favara explains the rationale behind his book and discusses some of its key findings.</em></p>
<h2>Why did you decide to look at these ads?</h2>
<p>I chose to look at these three magazines because they allowed me to explore ads designed to reach different groups, namely white men, Black people and women.</p>
<p>Scholars have argued that content in Sports Illustrated – known for its racy swimsuit editions – has long been <a href="https://sunypress.edu/Books/T/The-Swimsuit-Issue-and-Sport2">designed to appeal to straight white men</a>. My own research for the book and other scholarship has found that straight white men have consistently been portrayed in recruiting ads as <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/enlisting-masculinity-9780199842827?cc=us&lang=en&">ideal service members</a>.</p>
<p>Ad agencies J. Walter Thompson and Bates Worldwide developed recruiting plans that singled out Sports Illustrated as one of the most effective publications for reaching a high concentration of potential recruits because of the magazine’s popularity with male readers.</p>
<p>Advertisers contracted by the military viewed Ebony as crucial for reaching Black recruits. That’s largely because Ebony sought to balance content focusing on <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315586861-4/presenting-black-middle-class-john-johnson-ebony-magazine-1945%E2%80%931974-jason-chambers">Black middle-class life</a> with content covering the fight for racial inequality in American society.</p>
<p>Recruiting plans for the Marine Corps and the Navy all sought to place ads in Ebony, especially as part of efforts to recruit more Black officers.</p>
<p>Since the 1960s, Cosmopolitan has played a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/016344399021003004">key role for advertisers</a> in reaching self-sufficient working women as a consumer market. The desired reader of Cosmo – young, straight white women seeking independence – was also an ideal target of military advertisers, particularly in the 1970s and early 1980s.</p>
<p>Following President Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980, the military sought to <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Women_in_the_Military.html?id=Ea8MAAAACAAJ">decrease the numbers of military women</a> – an effort now known as the “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/j.ctt19gfk6m.10?seq=5#metadata_info_tab_contents">womanpause</a>” – and recruiting ads published in Cosmo tapered off. </p>
<h2>How were the ads in each magazine distinct?</h2>
<p>In the course of looking at more than 1,500 ads published in the three magazines between 1973 and 2016, I discovered interesting distinctions. Some themes – how much money you could make in the military, the educational benefits you could access, the sense of purpose the military could provide – were similar across the different magazines. But what was really distinct was how different ads portrayed different people as service members. </p>
<p>For instance, in the 1970s, the Army and Army Reserve placed ads in Cosmo that depicted the military as a way for young women – mostly young white women – to find careers and gain financial independence. The ads used headlines like “Did the last good job you wanted go to a man?” and “The best man doesn’t always get the job.” Text detailed the equal treatment – the same salaries, educational opportunities and chances for promotion – that military women would find in the military. The idea was to portray the Army as a unique site of opportunity for women. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Advertisement with four women wearing different military uniforms on the left." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An ad in a 1973 edition of Cosmopolitan presents the military as a place where women can get a fair shot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cosmopolitan, August 1973</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similarly, in the 1970s, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23337486.2018.1463759">ads published in Ebony</a> portrayed the military as a site of equal opportunity for Black men. A series of Navy ads talked about a “new Navy” where Black men had opportunities they wouldn’t have had 20 years prior.</p>
<p>In more recent decades, Ebony ads were less likely to use such explicit language of equal opportunities. Instead, they celebrated Black History Month by highlighting the accomplishments of exceptional Black service members from the past, such as the <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/who-were-the-montford-point-marines/">Montford Point Marines</a> and the <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/explore-and-learn/topics/blackwings/tuskegee.cfm">Tuskegee Airmen</a>. </p>
<h2>Were the magazine ads effective?</h2>
<p>While there is no way to know if the magazine ads – and not TV ads or other methods of recruiting – were directly responsible for increasing enlistments, my research for the book found that the publication of ads targeting Black recruits and women corresponded with high <a href="https://www.cna.org/pop-rep/2016/summary/summary.html">rates of enlistment</a> from those groups. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cna.org/pop-rep/2016/summary/summary.html">Between 1973 and 2016</a>, the percentage of military women increased sevenfold, <a href="https://www.cna.org/pop-rep/2016/appendixd/appendixd.pdf">from 2.2% in 1973 to 15.57% in 2016</a>. In the same time frame, Black recruits were consistently overrepresented in the military compared with their share in the civilian population. For example, in 1980, 1990 and 2000, <a href="https://www.cna.org/pop-rep/2016/appendixd/appendixd.pdf">between 19% and 22% of new enlistees were Black</a> compared with roughly 12% to 14% of the civilian population.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Advertisement with two men to the right, one with his arm around the other man and his hand on the other's chest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An ad that appeared in a 1976 edition of Ebony presents the Navy as a way for Black men to get ahead.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ebony magazine, 1976</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To me these demographic changes show how, as recruiting ads were being designed to reach women and Black recruits, the military itself was becoming more diverse. </p>
<p>I am interested in exploring how ads created a certain vision of the military as what I call a tactically inclusive institution. By that I mean an institution that has been selectively inclusive of different groups but ultimately exploits the vulnerabilities of potential recruits and perpetuates state violence.</p>
<h2>What does it mean to be ‘vulnerable’ to military ads?</h2>
<p>The term is not one that I or other scholars initially decided to use to describe what the military does. It comes from J. Walter Thompson, an advertising agency that has been creating Marine Corps ads since 1946. In a 1973 proposal for an integrated research program for the armed forces, housed in the <a href="https://guides.library.duke.edu/jwt">J. Walter Thompson Co. archives</a>, one of the first stated objectives was to identify “vulnerable target groups.” </p>
<p>The agency considered those vulnerable to military recruiting as people already inclined to join the military and those who might have reservations but were seen as persuadable. Ad agencies and the military used the term “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X9902500304">propensity</a>” to describe these two groups. Propensity refers to the likelihood that individuals will serve in the military, regardless of whether or not they really want to join the military. </p>
<p>Drawing on an array of different scholars, such as <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/the-right-to-maim">Jasbir K. Puar</a>, <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/death-beyond-disavowal">Grace Kyungwon Hong</a>, <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/aberrations-in-black">Roderick A. Ferguson</a> and <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/normal-life-revised">Dean Spade</a>, I think of vulnerability as being at the center of military recruiting. One is deemed vulnerable to military service because of a lack of opportunities, resources, support or cultural capital that the military can promise.</p>
<h2>Is your book pro-military, anti-military or neutral?</h2>
<p>The book argues that military inclusion is a form of power that furthers state violence. I am interested in studying military inclusion and recruitment advertising in order to challenge and resist the violence of the military. However, there were moments that made me think of military inclusion in a more complicated way. During an event at the <a href="https://www.fulcolibrary.org/auburn-avenue-research-library/aarl-eresources/">Auburn Avenue Research Library</a> in Atlanta, Georgia, I heard a panel of Black women veterans talk about their experiences in the military. They spoke about how the military provided them with financial stability, a chance to see the world and the opportunity to buy a home. </p>
<p>Despite the violence of the military, it is also one of the best avenues for upward mobility for many Americans. It is this tension, between seeing military inclusion as an opportunity and as a risk and form of exploitation, that I grapple with in the book.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204097/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeremiah Favara does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US military’s switch to an all-volunteer force in 1973 led to a series of magazine ads that sought to portray military service as a way for women and people of color to move up in society.Jeremiah Favara, Assistant Professor of Communication Studies, Gonzaga UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1950862023-04-05T17:52:00Z2023-04-05T17:52:00ZBlack singles with college education embrace life without marriage<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519412/original/file-20230404-20-6snpsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A new book titled 'The Love Jones Cohort' examines the lifestyles of middle-class Black Americans.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/african-american-woman-using-social-media-on-smart-royalty-free-image/1432253560">Morsa Images/DigitalVision Collection/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Why is it seemingly OK to ask single people “Why are you single?” when married people are rarely asked “Why are you married?”</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=EhVdUK4AAAAJ&hl=en">Sociologist Kris Marsh</a> hopes to break this double-standard with her new book “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316672754">The Love Jones Cohort: Single and Living Alone in the Black Middle Class</a>.” In it, she examines the lifestyles of single people and explores the stigma that can come with their decision to not marry.</em></p>
<h2>What’s the story behind the title?</h2>
<p>My mentor and I coined the expression “The Love Jones Cohort” over coffee on a hot and humid summer day in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. We were discussing how my idea to study Black middle class men and women who are single and living alone came from both media and my own life experiences. </p>
<p>I said that I was noticing – in both film and TV – a demographic shift in Black characters away from married couples to single adults. I believed this started with the 1997 romance drama “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119572/">Love Jones</a>,” starring Larenz Tate as an up-and-coming poet, and Nia Long as a talented but recently unemployed photographer.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Movie still of group of young adults smoking and drinking at a table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518593/original/file-20230330-390-elezol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518593/original/file-20230330-390-elezol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518593/original/file-20230330-390-elezol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518593/original/file-20230330-390-elezol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518593/original/file-20230330-390-elezol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518593/original/file-20230330-390-elezol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518593/original/file-20230330-390-elezol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The 1997 film ‘Love Jones’ is a story of Black love, life and friendship that still resonates today.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/larenz-tate-and-nia-long-having-drinks-with-another-couples-news-photo/159840963">Addis Wechsler Pictures/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The film follows the two characters, as well as their friends and acquaintances, as they pursue careers and lovers. It deals with relationships, premarital sex, choosing partners, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-women-still-earn-a-lot-less-than-men-109128">gender pay gap</a> and the realization that growing old and single might affect one’s health. More than 25 years later, the film remains a <a href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/la-et-mn-love-jones-oral-history-20170313-htmlstory.html">staple within Black culture</a>.</p>
<h2>Tell us more about this shift in TV and film</h2>
<p>In the 1980s and 1990s, the media prototype for the middle class – whether Black or white – had been a married couple with children. For the Black middle class, this was exemplified by the Huxtable family from “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086687/">The Cosby Show</a>,” a sitcom starring Bill Cosby that ran from 1984 to 1992 about an obstetrician father, a corporate attorney and their four happy, intelligent and adorable children. </p>
<p>After “The Cosby Show,” a surge of sitcoms and films depicted Black middle-class characters of a quite different demographic profile. These characters were 20-something, educated professionals who had never been married, were child-free and lived alone or with an unmarried friend or two. “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0106056">Living Single</a>,” a sitcom that ran from 1993 to 1998, centered on six Black friends living in a Brooklyn brownstone. “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0247102">Girlfriends</a>,” another popular sitcom, ran from 2000 to 2008 and followed the career and dating lives of four single Black women. </p>
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<img alt="Issa Rae and Yvonne Orji laugh while getting photographed at an event" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518828/original/file-20230331-18-6kwvv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518828/original/file-20230331-18-6kwvv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518828/original/file-20230331-18-6kwvv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518828/original/file-20230331-18-6kwvv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518828/original/file-20230331-18-6kwvv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=858&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518828/original/file-20230331-18-6kwvv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=858&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518828/original/file-20230331-18-6kwvv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=858&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Issa Rae and Yvonne Orji starred in ‘Insecure,’ which followed a group of young Black women living and dating in Los Angeles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/issa-rae-and-yvonne-orji-attend-vulture-festival-2021-at-news-photo/1353132110">David Livingston/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>More recent TV shows that represent the Love Jones cohort include “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2345481">Being Mary Jane</a>,” which ran from 2013 to 2019 and was about a young Black female news anchor and her career and family, and “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5024912">Insecure</a>,” which ended in 2021 after six seasons. “Insecure” followed four Black women who are best friends as they deal with insecurities and uncomfortable everyday experiences, career and relationship challenges, and a variety of social and racial issues relating to the contemporary Black experience.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, on the big screen, films depicting this demographic profile include “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0250274/">The Brothers</a>” and “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0269341">Two Can Play That Game</a>” in 2001, and “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0301181">Deliver Us From Eva</a>” in 2003.</p>
<p>This shift in Hollywood, it turns out, was also grounded in the real world – where a <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1093/sf/86.2.735">growing number of middle-class Black Americans</a> in recent decades are single and living alone. Looking at Census data, I learned that the number of middle-class Black people age 25-44 that were single and living alone jumped from <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1093/sf/86.2.735">6% in 1980 to 14% in 2000</a>, where it remains today. </p>
<h2>What are some of your most interesting findings?</h2>
<p>Several findings stand out from my interviews with members of the Love Jones Cohort in the summer of 2015.</p>
<p>A number of the men and women – who were all identified by pseudonyms in the study – actively chose singlehood. For example, Genesis, who works in brand management, had decided to not date for the immediate future. “Right now I’m more content with being single due to other priorities,” she said.</p>
<p>Many also enjoyed the economic autonomy that accompanied being single. “I decide what I want to do, if it’s political, if it’s social, I decide, and I don’t have to answer to anyone,” said Joanna, a 47-year-old communications specialist. However, they also reported that buying a home on a single income can be an economic hurdle. </p>
<p>While freedom and self-reliance were central aspects of the cohort’s lifestyle, so was – in many cases – what I call “situational loneliness.” This refers to bouts of mild to moderate loneliness that ebb and flow over short periods of time, such as Valentine’s Day. As a result, members in the cohort tended to place high value on interactions with family, friends and social networks.</p>
<p>In fact, friends were often perceived as a direct extension of their families, and both men and women expressed how friends met various social needs – whether this be workout partners, golf buddies or fellow foodies.</p>
<p>The women in the cohort saw their female friends as sources of emotional support, and these nurturing, nonromantic relationships were central to their single and living alone lifestyle. The cohort’s men, meanwhile, talked about their circle of friends in more pragmatic terms. “My friends come over. … We have a rooftop pool and different stuff like that. They’ll come over and want to hang out and chill,” noted Reggie, a 30-year-old financial analyst.</p>
<h2>What’s driving single life?</h2>
<p>When people talk about the driving factors of Black singlehood, the discussion often involves suggesting that Black singles – usually Black women – are too picky and need to lower or modify their standards to be partnered or married.</p>
<p>The Love Jones Cohort’s women were hopeful that if they did decide to partner, it would be with an educated Black man. Research supports the tendency for people to want to marry or partner with people in their same <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.24.1.395">social and economic class</a>. However, Black women are <a href="https://www.jbhe.com/2019/03/the-gender-gap-in-african-american-educational-attainment-2/">outpacing Black men in higher education</a>. According to <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2018/demo/education-attainment/cps-detailed-tables.html">2018 Census data</a>, <a href="https://www.jbhe.com/2019/03/the-gender-gap-in-african-american-educational-attainment-2/">19% of Black men</a> between the ages of 25 and 29 held a bachelor’s degree compared to 26% of Black women. This can lead to a disparity in resources and social standing. </p>
<p>In the book, I argue that racism and gendered racism constrain personal choices and also need to be taken into consideration when discussing Black singlehood. </p>
<p>For example, sociologist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TcTbU6oAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Celeste Vaughn Curington</a> and her colleagues coined the term “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520293458/the-dating-divide">digital-sexual racism</a>” after they conducted a comprehensive study of a diverse group of daters. According to Curington, the term refers to how Black daters are rendered “simultaneously hyper-visible and invisible. … They are contacted on dating sites specifically because they are Black but also ignored on other user sites entirely because they are Black.”</p>
<p>I’m asking readers to consider how singlehood is not simply because of an individual deficit, choice or behavior. I hope for the book to challenge readers to consider how structural forces and social contexts also fit into the conversation on singlehood.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195086/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kris Marsh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A sociologist interviewed dozens of middle-class Black singles about their friendships, freedom and dating lives.Kris Marsh, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of MarylandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2018212023-04-04T12:17:39Z2023-04-04T12:17:39Z6 of 8 Ivy Leagues will soon have women as presidents — an expert explains why this matters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517460/original/file-20230324-22-yd0cl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Claudine Gay will become Harvard's second female president and first Black president in July 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/claudine-gay-speaks-to-the-crowd-after-being-named-harvard-news-photo/1245637528">Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>For the first time, a majority of Ivy League schools will soon be led by women.</em></p>
<p><em>Starting July 1, 2023, <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/12/harvard-names-claudine-gay-30th-president/">Claudine Gay</a> will assume the role of president at Harvard University, <a href="https://www.columbia.edu/content/minouche-shafik">Nemat “Minouche” Shafik</a> at Columbia University and <a href="https://vermontbiz.com/news/2022/july/21/dartmouth-names-sian-leah-beilock-19th-president">Sian Leah Beilock</a> at Dartmouth College. They will join current female presidents at Brown University, Cornell University and University of Pennsylvania.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=shBbxjMAAAAJ&hl=en">Felecia Commodore</a>, an associate professor of higher education at Old Dominion University, explains what this means for gender equity in the college presidency – and why U.S. colleges and universities still have a long way to go.</em></p>
<h2>Why does this matter?</h2>
<p>While women make up about <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/college-university-fall-higher-education-men-women-enrollment-admissions-back-to-school-11630948233">60% of undergraduate</a> as well as <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/chb">master’s and doctoral students</a> in the U.S., only about <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2022/01/26/study-women-led-colleges-hire-more-women-and-pay-them-better">32% of presidents</a> of American colleges and universities are women.</p>
<p>However, the Ivy League is not new to selecting female presidents – they have been doing so for a few decades. Judith Rodin was the first, in 1994, when she became president of the University of Pennsylvania. She was followed by <a href="https://vivo.brown.edu/display/rsimmons">Ruth Simmons at Brown University</a> and <a href="https://www.brown.edu/campus-life/events/cracking-the-glass-ceiling/tilghman">Shirley Tilghman at Princeton University</a>, both in 2001. Rodin was succeeded by another woman, <a href="https://www.asc.upenn.edu/people/faculty/amy-gutmann-phd">Amy Guttman</a>, in 2004. </p>
<p>Still, one reason this moment may be one to watch is that Ivy League institutions are often seen as exemplars of elite, complex institutions. So seeing what one could consider a critical mass of female leaders in the Ivy League could signal the benefit of women in leadership to other boards that are hesitant or slow to hire women as presidents.</p>
<h2>How unusual is this across higher ed?</h2>
<p>I think it would be more surprising to see mostly female presidents at the majority of large public research universities, or at a majority of the schools in the <a href="https://www.si.com/college/2022/07/14/power-5-desirability-rankings-sec-big-ten-acc">Power 5 athletic conferences</a>. </p>
<p>Despite what may seem like a boom in women leading institutions, the percentage of women in the presidency at colleges and universities more broadly has plateaued at <a href="https://www.higheredtoday.org/2023/03/06/an-unrecognized-bias-contributing-to-the-gender-gap-in-the-college-presidency/">between 25% and 30%</a> for the past decade. This was after increasing from <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED446708">9.5% in 1986</a> to <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED446708">19% in 1998</a>.</p>
<p>A number of factors contribute to this low percentage, including <a href="https://www.aauw.org/resources/research/barrier-bias/">barriers within the college presidential pipeline</a> – such as exclusion from networks that provide mentorship – reward and <a href="https://www.higheredtoday.org/2017/10/23/pipelines-pathways-institutional-leadership-update-status-women-higher-education/">promotion structures</a> that are not equitable across genders, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.leaqua.2016.02.005">bias against women</a> <a href="https://vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/bitstream/handle/10919/89210/VoicesWomenHigEduc.pdf?sequence=1">in academic leadership roles</a>.</p>
<p>A recent analysis of <a href="https://www.higheredtoday.org/2023/03/06/an-unrecognized-bias-contributing-to-the-gender-gap-in-the-college-presidency/">data on college presidents</a> explains how this bias against women occurs, specifically when it comes to academic leadership roles. This is important because college presidents typically <a href="https://www.acenet.edu/Research-Insights/Pages/American-College-President-Study.aspx">find their way to the presidency</a> through <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003219897-3/pathways-presidency-hanna-rodriguez-farrar-laura-jack">academic leadership roles</a> such as deans, vice provosts and provosts. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Former Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett and former UPenn President Judith Rodin talk on a stage" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518500/original/file-20230330-26-bwdl3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518500/original/file-20230330-26-bwdl3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518500/original/file-20230330-26-bwdl3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518500/original/file-20230330-26-bwdl3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518500/original/file-20230330-26-bwdl3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518500/original/file-20230330-26-bwdl3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518500/original/file-20230330-26-bwdl3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Judith Rodin, right, former president of University of Pennsylvania, and Valerie Jarrett, former senior adviser in the Obama administration, discuss gender parity in the C-suite in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senior-advisor-and-assistant-to-the-president-white-house-news-photo/609203494">Riccardo Savi/Getty Images for Concordia Summit</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>What are the biggest challenges that college presidents face?</h2>
<p>The biggest priority or challenge really depends on the individual college or university. However, all institutions must ensure they are financially healthy and identify opportunities to strengthen their financial resources. College presidents have reported that they spend the most time on <a href="https://www.aceacps.org/duties-responsibilities/">budget and financial management</a>, followed by fundraising.</p>
<p>Particularly in the current <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/higher-ed-gamma/tyranny-market">higher education marketplace</a>, where the average cost of college runs <a href="https://educationdata.org/average-cost-of-college">over US$35,000 per year</a>, college leaders must work to keep their institutions fiscally strong and also competitive and affordable. This may involve, for example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00221546.2016.11777412">building new infrastructure</a>, creating new programs and cultivating new sources of funding. </p>
<h2>What effect does having a woman in the top seat have?</h2>
<p>For colleges that have only ever had a man in the president’s role, hiring their first woman as president can signal that the institution embraces change and evolution. This can be an especially important message to send to funders, alumni donors, philanthropists, state legislators and corporate partners, who all play a role in ensuring a particular college’s financial vitality.</p>
<p>Female presidents add to the diversity of the college presidency. They <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1091521">add different perspectives</a> to conversations that shape practices and policies both within their college and across higher education. They might, for example, provide their particular perspective regarding compensation for female faculty members of color, who tend to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09540253.2011.606208">engage in more unpaid service work</a> on campuses. </p>
<p>Organizational scholars and business leaders affirm that <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1007/s10551-015-2613-5">diversity strengthens the decisions</a> made by organizations and <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1002/job.724">contributes to innovative solutions</a>. A more diverse group of decision-makers can generate <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1002/job.724">more decision alternatives</a> than a homogeneous group that may be susceptible to group think.</p>
<p>And lastly, having women at the helm of academic institutions <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.46743/2160-3715/2017.2437">shows other women who aspire to become college presidents</a> that it is indeed possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201821/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felecia Commodore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite what’s happening on the most prestigious campuses, fewer than a third of presidents at American colleges and universities are women.Felecia Commodore, Assistant Professor of Higher Education, Old Dominion UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2016032023-03-10T19:05:14Z2023-03-10T19:05:14ZWhy employment remains red hot even as the Federal Reserve tries to put job market on ice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514743/original/file-20230310-27-t7m84x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C31%2C2995%2C1962&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is strong hiring fanning the flames of inflation?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/JobsReport/913d30c6b2e64f20b9cd1eecc7a020ef/photo?Query=jobs&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=58270&currentItemNo=42">AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/10/business/jobs-report-economy-news">hot U.S. labor market</a> is showing few signs of cooling down, with the latest jobs report showing continued strong gains, particularly in service industries such as retail and hospitality. The robust employment landscape may put pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates more than expected later this month in a bid to further tame inflation.</em></p>
<p><em>The U.S. economy <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm">added 311,000 jobs</a> in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on March 10, 2023, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/us-payrolls-top-estimates-while-jobless-rate-rises-wages-cool?srnd=premium&sref=Hjm5biAW">higher than economists were forecasting</a>. The unemployment rate <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm">ticked up slightly to 3.6%</a>, still near the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE">lowest level in over 50 years</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>To better understand what all this means and why the job market remains strong despite the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/business/economy/fed-powell-interest-rates.html">most aggressive pace of interest rate hikes</a> since the 1980s, we turned to Edouard Wemy, an <a href="https://www2.clarku.edu/faculty/facultybio.cfm?id=1080">economist at Clark University</a>.</em> </p>
<h2>What stood out for you most in the jobs report?</h2>
<p>It’s kind of strange how the labor market remains quite strong, with notable gains in labor-intensive service sectors like hospitality and leisure, health care and retail. That’s also where wage growth in February was strongest.</p>
<p>For workers, the report is good news, since it suggests if you’re looking for work you’ve got a strong chance of finding a job. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows that there are <a href="https://www.bls.gov/jlt/">almost two vacancies</a> for <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm">every unemployed worker</a>, which is pretty high compared with an <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=p9aA#">average of under 0.6 vacancies</a> per jobless person before the pandemic.</p>
<p>But it’s very puzzling. Why is the job growth so strong at a time when the Fed has been aggressively raising borrowing costs to tame the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL">highest inflation since the 1980s</a>? Typically, a sudden increase in interest rates – and the Fed has raised rates 4.5 percentage points over the past year – <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/101615/what-happens-if-interest-rates-increase-too-quickly.asp">would chill the labor market</a> and send unemployment much higher. </p>
<p>I believe, as is often the case in economics, it’s a question of supply and demand. The Fed has been focused on the latter. Raising the borrowing costs consumers and businesses have to pay should reduce consumer demand for goods and services, which in turn lowers demand for workers. </p>
<p>But the Fed can’t do much about the supply side of the equation – which refers to the number of available workers in the labor market. That’s measured by the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART">participation rate</a>, which plunged at the beginning of the pandemic and still hasn’t fully recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels. This is <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300001">especially true for men</a>, who are participating in the labor market at a rate of 68%, or 1.1 percentage point below February 2020 levels – the equivalent of about 1.5 million men gone from the workforce. </p>
<p>In other words, if the reason the job market is so tight right now is the relatively low participation rate, then that explains why the Fed’s interest rate hikes are not having much of an effect. </p>
<h2>Why is the participation rate still low?</h2>
<p>Economists, me included, are trying to work that out and have some theories.</p>
<p>The pandemic caused significant disruptions to the labor market – first, lockdowns caused unemployment to soar, then trillions of dollars in government aid meant to support the economy made it easier to get by without a job – and this has resulted in structural changes that persist today. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/research-department-working-paper/2016/who-counts-as-employed-informal-work-employment-status-and-labor-market-slack.aspx#:%7E:text=Informal%20Work%2C%20Employment%20Status%2C%20and%20Labor%20Market%20Slack,-By%20Anat%20Bracha&text=According%20to%20the%20Bureau%20of,week%20prior%20to%20the%20survey.">Recent research suggests</a> part of the explanation for the lower participation rate is that more younger workers may be joining the gig economy, which isn’t fully reflected in the government’s job and participation numbers. </p>
<h2>What does this mean for Fed’s rate-hike campaign?</h2>
<p>A few weeks ago markets were expecting the Fed to lift interest rates by another quarter-point <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm">when it meets on March 21-22</a>. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-markets-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-march-testimony-2023-3">That changed</a> after Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress on March 7 that the rate-hiking campaign still “has a long way to go.” </p>
<p>After the latest jobs report showed the strength of the labor market, I agree that a half-point increase is likely. But I’m hoping the Fed isn’t going to push up rates much more. </p>
<p>If the reason for the hot jobs market is primarily a supply or structural issue, then higher rates aren’t going to have the effect the Fed seeks – and would only increase the odds of recession. So I’m hoping the Fed’s economists recognize this and adjust their strategy. </p>
<h2>What are the odds of a recession?</h2>
<p>I still don’t think a recession is likely, mainly because recent economic data, such as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/06/economy/consumers-keep-spending/index.html">solid consumer spending</a> along with the latest jobs report, have been so strong. But also I do believe the Fed will change its tune, accept inflation may be a bit higher than it hopes and slow the pace of rate hikes. </p>
<p>But if the Fed stays focused on driving inflation to near its target of 2% – from an <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">annual pace of 6.4% currently</a> – that would greatly increase the odds of a recession this year or the next.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201603/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edouard Wemy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Fed has been trying to tame employment and wages to keep inflation in check. It ain’t working.Edouard Wemy, Assistant Professor of Economics, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1990572023-02-01T21:51:00Z2023-02-01T21:51:00ZWhy the Fed raised interest rates by the smallest amount since it began its epic inflation fight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507713/original/file-20230201-11673-evozko.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=495%2C107%2C6242%2C4596&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Markets reacted positively to Fed Chair Powell's acknowledging “disinflation” is happening. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FinancialMarketsWallStreet/48a40a8b04be49a3b4dfa080df418c52/photo?Query=federal%20reserve&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=now-24h&totalCount=30&currentItemNo=9">AP Photo/Seth Wenig</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230201a.htm">lifted interest rates</a> on Feb. 1, 2023, by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The increase, <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm">the smallest</a> since the Fed began an aggressive campaign of rate hikes in March 2022, came amid signs the fastest pace of inflation in decades <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/30/business/economy/inflation-rate-fed.html">is cooling</a>. But the Fed also indicated more rate hikes are coming.</em></p>
<p><em>So why is the Fed slowing the size of rate increases now, and what does it mean for consumers? We asked finance scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=eP0xZ1kAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">William Chittenden</a> from Texas State University to explain what’s going on and what comes next.</em> </p>
<h2>Why did the Fed raise rates by only a quarter point?</h2>
<p>The Fed is trying to figure out whether last year’s rate hikes have slowed the economy enough to get inflation near its target of about 2%. </p>
<p>By raising what’s known as the Fed funds rate, the U.S. central bank makes borrowing more expensive, which means buying large-ticket items, like cars and homes, is more costly. This should lead to fewer people buying cars, which will likely result in lower car prices. </p>
<p>In 2022, the Fed lifted rates eight times by a total of 4.25 percentage points, which helped prompt inflation to drop to an annual pace of <a href="https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/">6.5% in December from 9.1% at its peak in June</a>. </p>
<p>To understand why it’s so hard for the Fed to figure out if its rate hikes worked, think of the economy as a fully loaded oil tanker out in the ocean. Naturally, it’s chugging along as fast it can to reach a specific destination, but it takes a long time from the captain “stepping on the brakes” to when the ship actually stops moving forward. </p>
<p>Similarly, the Fed is raising rates to slow the economy – sort of like stepping on the brakes – and bring inflation down to 2%, but there’s often a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rate-hike-february-2023/card/debate-over-policy-lags-could-shape-future-rate-decisions-jSHal2idzCac4x5bcJ3s?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1">long delay between the hikes and their impact on the economy</a>.</p>
<p>But if the Fed eases off the brakes too early, inflation could remain high. If it presses on them too hard, unemployment will likely shoot up and the economy will slide into a recession. By increasing interest rates only a quarter-point, the Fed is signaling that it believes the economy has begun to slow down and is on a path to 2% inflation.</p>
<h2>Does this mean borrowing costs will start coming down?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.bankrate.com/rates/interest-rates/prime-rate/">The Fed funds rate acts as a base rate</a> for shorter-term interest rates, such as for car loans and credit cards. As it goes up, short-term borrowing rates increase by about the same amount. </p>
<p>The financial markets <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">are predicting about an 80% chance</a> the Fed’s benchmark lending rate will top out around 5% this summer – which means they’re expecting rates to go just a little bit higher. </p>
<p>Rates on shorter-term borrowing are unlikely to come down, but if markets are right, they probably won’t increase much more.</p>
<p>However, for long-term borrowing costs, as on a 30-year mortgage, rates <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US">are already coming down</a> and are likely to fall some more – good news for homebuyers.</p>
<h2>How about inflation – can consumers expect prices to start falling?</h2>
<p>Overall, yes, inflation is already starting to come down – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/inflation-report-is-a-mixed-bag-an-economist-explains-why-some-items-are-rising-faster-than-others-197770">prices on some items are even falling</a>. </p>
<p>For example, used-car prices, which soared earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SETA02#0">have dropped</a> in recent months, while <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm">prices of dozens of other items</a>, such as flour, clothes and gasoline, have eased. </p>
<p>However, some costs continue to increase. <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111">Egg prices soared</a> after the supply was disrupted because of avian flu, which <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/02/1140076426/what-we-know-about-the-deadliest-u-s-bird-flu-outbreak-in-history">killed off nearly 53 million egg-laying hens</a>. Unfortunately, increasing interest rates will not bring back those birds or help decrease the cost of eggs. </p>
<p>In addition, nothing the Fed does will affect the war in Ukraine, which has led to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/01/business/wheat-ukraine-war-market.html#:%7E:text=The%20price%20of%20a%20widely,global%20hub%20for%20the%20commodity.">higher world wheat and energy prices</a>. </p>
<p>The point being, the Fed can’t really address certain types of inflation.</p>
<h2>Does all this mean the U.S. will avoid recession?</h2>
<p>That’s the trillion-dollar question. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/fed-slows-rate-hikes-signals-further-increases-are-coming?srnd=premium&sref=Hjm5biAW">Fed officials have at times sounded hopeful</a> that they can bring down inflation without crashing the economy – a so-called soft landing. During his press conference after the latest announcement Feb. 1, 2023, Fed Chair Jerome Powell <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-interest-rates-decision-february-1-174421486.html">was more cautious</a>, saying it’s too soon to declare victory. But he noted: “<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-interest-rates-decision-february-1-174421486.html">We can now say for the first time that the disinflationary process has started</a>.”</p>
<p>Economic forecasters have been less confident that the U.S. will avoid a recession. On average, economists surveyed this past month by The Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/despite-easing-price-pressures-economists-in-wsj-survey-still-see-recession-this-year-11673723571">forecast a 61% probability</a> of a recession in 2023. In addition, <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators">key economic indicators point</a> to a recession, while the yield curve – a bond market metric that has been successful at predicting recessions – <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq#/interactive">currently puts the odds</a> at about 47%.</p>
<p>In my view, this all adds up to: Nobody really knows. My best advice to consumers out there is to prepare financially for a recession, but let’s not give up hope that the Fed can slow the economy without crashing it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199057/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Chittenden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Fed lifted its benchmark interest rate just 0.25 percentage point following a series of much more aggressive rate hikes in 2022.William Chittenden, Associate Professor of Finance, Texas State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1925672022-12-14T13:14:47Z2022-12-14T13:14:47ZNasal vaccines promise to stop the COVID-19 virus before it gets to the lungs – an immunologist explains how they work<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493959/original/file-20221107-19718-xu583n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C7360%2C4891&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nasal vaccines for COVID-19 are still in early development.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/little-cute-blonde-boy-getting-vaccinated-covid-19-royalty-free-image/1282728128?phrase=COVID-19%20nasal%20vaccine&adppopup=true">Paul Biris/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna mRNA vaccines have played a large role in preventing deaths and severe infections from COVID-19. But researchers are still in the process of developing alternative approaches to vaccines to improve their effectiveness, including how they’re administered. Immunologist and microbiologist <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Michael-Russell-10">Michael W. Russell</a> of the University at Buffalo explains how nasal vaccines work, and where they are in the development pipeline.</em></p>
<h2>How does the immune system fight pathogens?</h2>
<p>The immune system has two distinct components: mucosal and circulatory.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-415847-4.00001-X">mucosal immune system</a> provides protection at the mucosal surfaces of the body. These include the mouth, eyes, middle ear, the mammary and other glands, and the gastrointestinal, respiratory and urogenital tracts. Antibodies and a variety of other anti-microbial proteins in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/slime-is-all-around-and-inside-you-new-research-on-its-origins-offers-insight-into-genetic-evolution-189278">sticky secretions</a> that cover these surfaces, as well as immune cells located in the lining of these surfaces, directly attack invading pathogens.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/1741-7007-8-84">circulatory part of the immune system</a> generates antibodies and immune cells that are delivered through the bloodstream to the internal tissues and organs. These circulating antibodies do not usually reach the mucosal surfaces in large enough amounts to be effective. Thus mucosal and circulatory compartments of the immune system are largely <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2022.957107">separate and independent</a>.</p>
<h2>What are the key players in mucosal immunity?</h2>
<p>The immune components people may be most familiar with are proteins known as <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK513460/">antibodies, or immunoglobulins</a>. The immune system generates antibodies in response to invading agents that the body identifies as “non-self,” such as viruses and bacteria.</p>
<p>Antibodies bind to specific antigens: the part or product of a pathogen that induces an immune response. Binding to antigens allows antibodies to either inactivate them, as they do with toxins and viruses, or kill bacteria with the help of additional immune proteins or cells.</p>
<p>The mucosal immune system generates a specialized form of antibody called <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/mi.2011.39">secretory IgA, or SIgA</a>. Because SIgA is located in mucosal secretions, such as saliva, tears, nasal and intestinal secretions, and breast milk, it is resistant to digestive enzymes that readily destroy other forms of antibodies. It is also superior to most other immunoglobulins at neutralizing viruses and toxins, and at preventing bacteria from attaching to and invading the cells lining the surfaces of organs.</p>
<p>There are also many <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9780470015902.a0000942.pub2">other key players</a> in the mucosal immune system, including different types of anti-microbial proteins that kill pathogens, as well as immune cells that generate antibody responses.</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Mucus is one of the central secretions of the mucosal immune system.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How does the COVID-19 virus enter the body?</h2>
<p>Almost all infectious diseases in people and other animals are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK209710/">acquired through mucosal surfaces</a>, such as by eating or drinking, breathing or sexual contact. Major exceptions include infections from wounds, or pathogens delivered by insect or tick bites.</p>
<p>The virus that causes COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, enters the body via droplets or aerosols that get into your <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41385-020-00359-2">nose, mouth or eyes</a>. It can cause severe disease if it descends deep into the lungs and causes an <a href="https://theconversation.com/long-covid-19-and-other-chronic-respiratory-conditions-after-viral-infections-may-stem-from-an-overactive-immune-response-in-the-lungs-186970">overactive, inflammatory immune response</a>.</p>
<p>This means that the virus’s first contact with the immune system is probably through the surfaces of the nose, mouth and throat. This is supported by the presence of SIgA antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2020.611337">in the secretions of infected people</a>, including their saliva, nasal fluid and tears. These locations, especially the tonsils, have specialized areas that specifically trigger mucosal immune responses.</p>
<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11040397">Some research suggests</a> that if these SIgA antibody responses form as a result of vaccination or prior infection, or occur quickly enough in response to a new infection, they could prevent serious disease by confining the virus to the upper respiratory tract until it is eliminated.</p>
<h2>How do nasal vaccines work?</h2>
<p>Vaccines can be <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-415847-4.00055-0">given through mucosal routes</a> via the mouth or nose. This induces an immune response through areas that stimulate the mucosal immune system, leading mucosal secretions to produce SIgA antibodies.</p>
<p>There are <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-811924-2.00001-8">several existing mucosal vaccines</a>, most of them taken by mouth. Currently only one, the flu vaccine, is delivered nasally.</p>
<p>In the case of nasal vaccines, the viral antigens intended to stimulate the immune system would be taken up by immune cells within the lining of the nose or tonsils. While the exact mechanisms by which nasal vaccines work in people have not been thoroughly studied, researchers believe they <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00915547">work analogously to oral mucosal vaccines</a>. Antigens in the vaccine induce B cells in mucosal sites to mature into plasma cells that secrete a form of IgA. That IgA is then transported into mucosal secretions throughout the body, where it becomes SIgA.</p>
<p>If the SIgA antibodies in the nose, mouth or throat target SARS-CoV-2, they could neutralize the virus before it can drop down into the lungs and establish an infection.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Nasal vaccines could provide a more approachable alternative to injections for patients leery of needles.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What advantage do mucosal vaccines have against COVID-19?</h2>
<p>I believe that arguably the best way to protect an individual against COVID-19 is to block the virus at its point of entry, or at least to confine it to the upper respiratory tract, where it might inflict relatively little damage.</p>
<p>Breaking chains of viral transmission is crucial to controlling epidemics. Researchers know that <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab691">COVID-19 spreads</a> during normal breathing and speech, and is exacerbated by sneezing, coughing, shouting, singing and other forms of exertion. Because these emissions mostly originate from saliva and nasal secretions, where the predominant form of antibody present is SIgA, it stands to reason that secretions with a sufficiently high level of SIgA antibodies against the virus could neutralize and thereby diminish its transmissibility.</p>
<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2022.957107">Existing vaccines</a>, however, do not induce SIgA antibody responses. Injected vaccines primarily induce circulating IgG antibodies, which are effective in preventing serious disease in the lungs. Nasal vaccines specifically induce SIgA antibodies in nasal and salivary secretions, where the virus is initially acquired, and can more effectively prevent transmission.</p>
<p>Nasal vaccines may be a useful supplement to injected vaccines in hot spots of infection. Since they don’t require needles, they might also help overcome vaccine hesitancy due to <a href="https://theconversation.com/over-half-of-adults-unvaccinated-for-covid-19-fear-needles-heres-whats-proven-to-help-161636">fear of injections</a>.</p>
<h2>How close are researchers to creating a nasal COVID-19 vaccine?</h2>
<p>There have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-02824-3">over 100 oral or nasal COVID-19 vaccines in development</a> around the world.</p>
<p>Most of these have been or are currently being tested in animal models. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/scitranslmed.abn6868">Many</a> <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abo2523">have reported</a> successfully inducing protective antibodies in the blood and secretions, and have prevented infection in these animals. However, few have been successfully tested in people. Many <a href="https://www.pharmalive.com/altimmune-to-halt-trials-for-intranasal-covid-19-vaccine">have been abandoned</a> without fully reporting study details.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines">World Health Organization</a>, 14 nasal COVID-19 vaccines are in clinical trials as of late 2022. Reports from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-02851-0">China and India</a> indicate that nasal or inhaled vaccines have been approved in these countries. But little information is publicly available about the results of the studies supporting approval of these vaccines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael W. Russell receives consultation fees from Therapyx, Inc., and has received previous research grants (now inactive) from the National Institutes of Health; he is also named on current grants to Therapyx, Inc. Therapyx has no interests in products for COVID-19.</span></em></p>An effective nasal vaccine could stop the virus that causes COVID-19 right at its point of entry. But devising one that works has been a challenge for researchers.Michael W. Russell, Professor Emeritus of Microbiology and Immunology, University at BuffaloLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1957792022-12-13T19:04:59Z2022-12-13T19:04:59ZFederal Reserve just hiked interest rates for the 7th time this year – so why are mortgage rates coming down?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500207/original/file-20221211-90059-cv8u59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=19%2C25%2C4237%2C2814&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Homebuyers are receiving something of a holiday gift in falling mortgage costs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/miniature-wooden-houses-and-a-red-arrow-down-the-royalty-free-image/1192866996?phrase=interest%20rates%20homes&adppopup=true">Andrii Yalanskyi/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20221214a.htm">raised interest rates</a> by half a percentage point on Dec. 14, 2022, to a range of 4.25 to 4.5%, the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm">seventh increase this year</a>. So far in 2022, the Fed has lifted its benchmark short-term rate, which influences most other borrowing costs in the economy, by 4.25 percentage points from a low of near zero as recently as March.</em></p>
<p><em>But even as the U.S. central bank lifts rates – and plans to keep doing so in 2023 – homebuyers are beginning to notice a pleasant surprise: <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US">Mortgage rates have been falling</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>What’s going on?</em></p>
<p><em>We asked <a href="https://scholar.google.ch/citations?hl=en&view_op=list_works&gmla=AJsN-F4fuP-jZCTY0dss1jyFm2bODATjgGmtalW1ZCYWx6Sw-w7-2gMSs_-5u0HsxzA0_0AxX69RwCOCKv-y6oSwPfRDnRwa5C62z81iNnOd7OLu7HZKegI&user=VxWst50AAAAJ">Brian Blank</a>, a finance professor who has <a href="https://doi.org//10.1080/10527001.2021.2008094">researched mortgage rates and bank loans</a>, to explain the paradox of falling mortgage costs at a time of rising base interest rates.</em></p>
<h2>What’s happening with mortgage rates?</h2>
<p>After soaring for much of 2022, mortgage rates and other long-term rates are starting to come down.</p>
<p>The average rate on a 30-year mortgage <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US">has fallen 0.75 percentage points</a> in the past month or so, after hitting a 20-year high of 7.08% in early November. Rates reached 6.33% on Dec. 8, the lowest level since September. This occurred over the same period as the Fed lifted its benchmark interest rate 2 percentage points. </p>
<p>Another key rate that fell is the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y">has declined by a similar amount</a>, to 3.5%.</p>
<h2>Why are mortgage rates falling if the Fed is still hiking?</h2>
<p>The short and rather boring technical answer is that bond markets anticipated this rate hike many months ago. And as market factors largely dictate the costs of borrowing, the increase was already absorbed into home loan rates.</p>
<p>Mortgage rates, while rising due to the Federal Reserve’s rapid hiking pace, are actually more closely linked to the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=281291">interest rate on Treasury securities</a>, specifically the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. That security began to anticipate the Fed’s interest rate increases a year ago and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/bond/BX/TMUBMUSD10Y">rose from less than 1.5% in December 2021</a> to more than 3.25% by June. </p>
<p>And now, with signs that inflation has already peaked and amid growing concerns of a slowing economy, these longer-term rates are coming down in anticipation of fewer future Fed rate hikes than expected only a short time ago. In fact, mortgage and other long-term rates may keep falling over the coming months – assuming the Fed manages to get inflation under control so it is able to lower its benchmark rate again.</p>
<h2>Why do mortgage rates follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond?</h2>
<p>Even though 30-year mortgages can be held for three decades, <a href="https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/average-mortgage-length">most people sell their house or refinance within a decade</a>, which means the investor who is receiving the mortgage payments is effectively investing in a 10-year bond. </p>
<p>As a result, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage interest rate is normally <a href="https://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/BKI_MM_Feb2020_Chart11.pdf">1 to 2 percentage points higher</a> than the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond.</p>
<p>However, when the economy has more uncertainty than usual, like earlier this year, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545035-mortgage-demand-plunges-spread-between-mortgage-rate-and-10-year-treasury-yield-blows-out">this spread can get as large as 3 percentage points</a>. This uncertainty can be the result of a potential economic <a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2018/404">downturn</a>, the possibility of the Fed raising rates more than expected, inflation, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-22/mortgage-investors-jump-in-after-fed-says-mbs-sales-aren-t-near#xj4y7vzkg">Fed balance sheet changes</a> or all of the above – as happened in 2022.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="a for sale sign hangs on a white post in front of a home pictured in the distance" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500485/original/file-20221212-113662-ctxrb1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500485/original/file-20221212-113662-ctxrb1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500485/original/file-20221212-113662-ctxrb1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500485/original/file-20221212-113662-ctxrb1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500485/original/file-20221212-113662-ctxrb1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500485/original/file-20221212-113662-ctxrb1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500485/original/file-20221212-113662-ctxrb1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mortgage rates have fallen over the past month but remain above 2021 levels, leaving homes sitting on the market longer than during the pandemic boom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MortgageRates/ff69019f4c3841448fee98750f5c707a/photo?Query=home%20for%20sale&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=2207&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Julio Cortez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why are mortgage rates higher than Treasury yields?</h2>
<p>Since the United States Treasury is more likely to pay investors back than almost any individual homeowner, <a href="https://www.investright.org/understand-investing/high-risk-investments/#nvkForm6529d2c3b5fdc05a987634da4327a5eb">investors charge a higher interest rate</a> due to the additional risk they are taking. </p>
<p>Even though individuals go to banks to borrow, <a href="https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/housing-finance-policy-center/projects/mortgage-servicing-collaborative/help-me-understand-mortgage-servicing/how-does-securitization-affect-mortgage-servicing">banks often sell</a> <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2008/09/pdf/basics.pdf">those loans to investors</a>, who then receive the money individuals pay back on the loan. </p>
<p>Since individuals default on mortgages more often than the U.S. government defaults on Treasury bonds, investors <a href="https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/equities/required-rate-of-return/">require</a> a <a href="https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/individual-investor/insights/articles/market-expected-return-on-investment.html">higher return</a> to purchase the rights to receive the payments from those mortgages.</p>
<h2>If mortgage rates fall, will the Fed have to raise rates even higher to control inflation?</h2>
<p>Falling mortgage rates preceded an increase in the home purchase index, which is a measure of current market <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/11302022-mortgage-application-volume">conditions</a> to purchase homes. This suggests the <a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in_0650395375.html">housing market may finally start to pick up steam</a> after slowing down all year. </p>
<p>Since the Fed is trying to slow economic <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf">activity</a> to bring down inflation, this <a href="https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/macroeconomics/income-and-expenditure-topic/macroeconomics-is-lm/v/investment-and-real-interest-rates">could cause housing prices</a> to increase again, thus forcing the Fed to raise its target rate more than planned. </p>
<p>However, I believe the effective federal funds rate, which is the market rate directly influenced by the Fed’s target range, is already <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221130a.htm">sufficiently restrictive</a> to slow the housing market and restore more normal economic conditions in 2023. Moreover, the decline in mortgage rates is still quite small – they remain over double what they were a year ago – so the drop isn’t likely to have much of an impact alone.</p>
<p>What the Fed itself thinks about this challenge – and where it <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220921.pdf">projects</a> to take interest <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-26/the-treasury-market-s-big-recession-trade-is-gathering-momentum">rates</a> next year – is what I and many other <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-could-pencil-in-higher-interest-rates-next-year-while-slowing-hikes-in-december-11670208857">economists</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-05/study-of-5-trillion-funds-show-pros-positioned-for-soft-economic-landing">investors</a> will be monitoring closely after it met for the last time of 2022. It should tell us what to expect in 2023 – so stay tuned.</p>
<p><em>Article updated to include Fed raising rates.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>D. Brian Blank does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The cost of borrowing for a home has fallen in recent months, despite repeated increases of the benchmark interest rate. An economist explains the seeming paradox.D. Brian Blank, Assistant Professor of Finance, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1939952022-11-14T13:28:19Z2022-11-14T13:28:19ZBird flu has made a comeback, driving up prices for holiday turkeys<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493636/original/file-20221105-11-s3rd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C4%2C2766%2C1785&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Healthy turkeys on a farm in West Newfield, Maine.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/turkey-eye-a-photographer-from-their-side-of-the-fence-news-photo/1237706083">Shawn Patrick Ouellette/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>An <a href="https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022/2022-hpai-commercial-backyard-flocks">outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza</a> has spread through chicken and turkey flocks in 46 states since it was first detected in Indiana on Feb. 8, 2022. The outbreak is also taking a heavy toll in <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/bird-flu-cases-on-the-rise-what-this-means-for-poultry-and-egg-prices-1.6095332">Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/2021-2022-data-show-largest-avian-flu-epidemic-europe-ever">Europe</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>Better known as bird flu, avian influenza is a family of highly contagious viruses that are not typically harmful to most wild birds that transmit it, but are deadly to domesticated birds. The virus spreads quickly through poultry flocks and almost always causes severe disease or death, so when it is detected, officials quarantine the site and cull all the birds in the infected flock.</em> </p>
<p><em>As of early November, this outbreak had led to the culling of over 50 million birds from Maine to Oregon, driving up prices for eggs and poultry – <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/02/turkey-shortage-thanksgiving-2022">including holiday turkeys</a>. This matches the toll from a <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=86281">2014-2015 bird flu outbreak</a> that previously was considered the most significant animal disease event in U.S. history. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=lLdLWigAAAAJ&hl=en">Yuko Sato</a>, an associate professor of veterinary medicine who works with poultry producers, explains why so many birds are getting sick and whether the outbreak threatens human health.</em></p>
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<h2>Why is avian influenza so deadly for domesticated birds but not for wild birds that carry it?</h2>
<p>Avian influenza (AI) is a contagious virus that affects all birds. There are two groups of aviain influenza viruses that cause disease in chickens: highly pathogenic AI (HPAI) and low pathogenic AI (LPAI). </p>
<p>HPAI viruses cause high mortality in poultry, and occasionally in some wild birds. LPAI can cause mild to moderate disease in poultry, and usually little to no clinical signs of illness in wild birds. </p>
<p>The primary <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson1/section10.html">natural hosts and reservoir</a> of AI viruses are wild waterfowl, such as ducks and geese. This means that the virus is well adapted to them, and these birds do not typically get sick when they are infected with it. </p>
<p>But when domesticated poultry, such as chickens and turkeys, come in direct or indirect contact with feces of infected wild birds, they become infected and start to show symptoms, such as <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/hpai/hpai-background-clinical-illness.htm">lethargy, coughing and sneezing and sudden death</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493635/original/file-20221105-15-ciub47.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of US and Canada showing avian influenza distribution among commercial, backyard and wild bird flocks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493635/original/file-20221105-15-ciub47.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493635/original/file-20221105-15-ciub47.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493635/original/file-20221105-15-ciub47.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493635/original/file-20221105-15-ciub47.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493635/original/file-20221105-15-ciub47.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493635/original/file-20221105-15-ciub47.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493635/original/file-20221105-15-ciub47.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Migrating wild birds, most of which are not harmed by avian influenza, are known to spread the disease to commercial and backyard flocks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/distribution-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5-and-h5n1-north-america-20212022">USGS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>There are multiple strains of avian influenza. What type is this outbreak, and is it dangerous to humans?</h2>
<p>The virus of concern in this outbreak is a Eurasian H5N1 HPAI virus that causes high mortality and severe clinical signs in domesticated poultry. Scientists who <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nwhc/science/avian-influenza-surveillance">monitor wild bird flocks</a> have also detected a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/genetic-reassortment">reassortant virus</a> that contains genes from both the Eurasian H5 and low pathogenic North American viruses. Reassortment happens when multiple strains of the virus circulating in the bird population exchange genes to create a new strain of the virus, much as new strains of COVID-19 like omicron and delta have emerged during the ongoing pandemic.</p>
<p>According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2021-2022/h5n1-low-risk-public.htm">the risk to public health from this outbreak is low</a>. No human illnesses were associated with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2015/update-h5-outbreak-birds.htm">2014-2015 H5N1 outbreak in the U.S.</a></p>
<p>The only known human case in the U.S. during the current outbreak was found in a man in Colorado who <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/s0428-avian-flu.html">had contact with infected birds</a>. The man tested positive once, then negative on follow-up tests, and reported only mild symptoms, so health experts theorized that the virus may have been present in his nose <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2022/04/29/10-people-under-watch-after-bird-flu-detected-in-man/">without actually causing an infection</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/acK6c8BTtv4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Health officials recommend avoiding direct contact with wild birds to avoid spreading avian flu.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Are these outbreaks connected to wild bird migration?</h2>
<p>Yes, wild bird migration has been an important factor in this outbreak. Scientists have detected the same H5N1 virus that is infecting poultry in <a href="https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022/2022-hpai-wild-birds">more than 3,000 wild birds</a> during this outbreak, compared with 75 detections during the 2014-2015 outbreak. This tells us that the virus is highly prevalent in wild bird populations. </p>
<p>While most detections occur in ducks and geese, the virus has also been found in other bird species, including raptors, such as eagles and vultures, and other waterfowl, such as swans and <a href="https://www.mycouriertribune.com/outdoors/pelican-found-in-county-with-bird-flu">pelicans</a>. Birds of prey are among the most susceptible: As of early November 2022, wildlife agencies had <a href="https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022/2022-hpai-wild-birds">reported</a> more than 300 bird flu deaths in black vultures, over 200 deaths in bald eagles and more than 100 each in great horned owls and red-tailed hawks.</p>
<p>The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service conducts targeted sampling to test wild birds in fall and early winter, which <a href="https://birdcast.info/migration-tools/live-migration-maps/">correlates with migration season</a>. This helps scientists and wildlife managers understand where avian flu viruses may be introduced to domestic flocks, track their spread and monitor for any reassortment.</p>
<p>Because there are high amounts of virus circulating, wildlife agencies advise against <a href="https://wildlife.utah.gov/avian-influenza.html">handling or eating game birds that appear sick</a>. Waterfowl can also be infected, with no signs of illness, so hunters need to be especially careful not to handle or eat game birds without properly cleaning their clothing and equipment afterward and ensuring the birds are cooked to an <a href="https://wildlife.ca.gov/News/avian-influenza-guidance-for-waterfowl-hunters">internal temperature of 165 degrees F (74 C)</a> before consuming them.</p>
<p>Hunters and other members of the public are advised not to approach any wild animals that are acting strange and to report any such sightings to officials. In some cases, avian flu viruses have spilled over to other wild animals, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2711.211281">red foxes</a>, <a href="https://wdfw.medium.com/avian-influenza-common-questions-and-answers-regarding-transmission-to-mammals-b70a73d53a66">raccoons</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/health/avian-flu-h5n1-foxes.html">skunks, opossums and bobcats</a>. We did not see this trend in 2014-15.</p>
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<p>HPAI is a transboundary disease, which means it is highly contagious and spreads rapidly across national borders. Some research indicates that detection of HPAI viruses in wild birds <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.22171">has become more common</a>. </p>
<p>Detection of HPAI in wild birds is seasonal, with a peak in February and a low point in September. Many migratory bird species <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nwhc/science/avian-influenza">travel thousands of miles between continents</a>, posing a continuing risk of AI virus transmission.</p>
<p>On the positive side, we have better diagnostic tests for much more rapid and improved detection of avian influenza compared to 20 to 30 years ago, and can use molecular diagnostics such as <a href="https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus-glossary#1">polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests</a> – the same method labs use to detect COVID-19 infections. </p>
<h2>How are poultry farmers affected when HPAI is detected in their flocks?</h2>
<p>To detect AI, the U.S. Department of Agriculture oversees routine testing of flocks by farmers and carries out federal inspection programs to ensure that eggs and birds are safe and free of virus. When H5N1 is diagnosed on a farm or in a backyard flock, state and federal officials will quarantine the site and cull and dispose of all the birds in the infected flock. Then the site is cleaned and decontaminated, a process that includes removing organic materials like manure and chicken feed that can <a href="https://extension.psu.edu/creating-a-farm-plan-for-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza">harbor virus particles</a>. </p>
<p>After <a href="https://www.aphis.usda.gov/publications/animal_health/pos-hpai-stop-avian-influenza-outbreaks.508.pdf">several weeks</a> without new virus detections, the area is required to test negative in order to be deemed free of infection. We call this process the four D’s of outbreak control: diagnosis, depopulation, disposal and decontamination.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456409/original/file-20220405-12-hkn2vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Wire cages hold chicken figurines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456409/original/file-20220405-12-hkn2vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456409/original/file-20220405-12-hkn2vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456409/original/file-20220405-12-hkn2vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456409/original/file-20220405-12-hkn2vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456409/original/file-20220405-12-hkn2vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456409/original/file-20220405-12-hkn2vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456409/original/file-20220405-12-hkn2vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Live birds are banned at agricultural fairs during bird flu outbreaks to avoid spreading infections. These fake chickens were on display at the Cabarrus County, N.C., fair in 2015, a previous H5N1 outbreak year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/real-birds-banned-at-state-fairs-due-to-bird-flu-these-are-news-photo/582537669">Elizabeth W. Kearley via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Flock owners are eligible for federal <a href="https://www.aphis.usda.gov/publications/animal_health/fs-hpai-indemnity-and-compensation.508.pdf">indemnity payments</a> for birds and eggs that have to be destroyed because of avian influenza, as well as for the costs of removing birds and cleaning and disinfecting their farms. This support is designed to help producers move past an outbreak, get their farms back in condition for restocking and get back into business as soon as possible. </p>
<p>But these payments <a href="https://www.fcsamerica.com/resources/education/common-ground/common-ground/2022/05/24/financial-best-practices-in-the-face-of-avian-influenza">almost never cover all of farmers’ expenses</a>. Poultry farms can’t always recover financially from major bird flu outbreaks. That makes it especially important to focus on <a href="http://extension.msstate.edu/publications/information-sheets/biosecurity-measures-combat-avian-influenza-threat">prevention strategies</a> to keep the virus out. </p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to reflect reported avian influenza deaths in birds of prey.</em></p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/bird-flu-is-killing-millions-of-chickens-and-turkeys-across-the-us-180299">article</a> originally published on April 7, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193995/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yuko Sato receives funding from the US Department of Agriculture, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, allied industry companies, the Pew Foundation, the Egg Industry Center, the US Poultry & Egg Association, and internally through Iowa State University. She is affiliated with the Iowa Poultry Association, the Iowa Turkey Federation, United Egg Producers and the US Animal Health Association. </span></em></p>Hunters are warned to take precautions handling wild birds, and the virus can spill over to non-avian species, so no one should approach wild animals that appear ill.Yuko Sato, Associate Professor of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1923712022-10-13T18:57:37Z2022-10-13T18:57:37ZSoaring inflation prompts biggest Social Security cost-of-living boost since 1981 – 6 questions answered <figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489641/original/file-20221013-11-56zp8r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=159%2C199%2C6243%2C4178&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Social Security benefits have lost their purchasing power as inflation has soared in 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/senior-man-with-face-mask-buying-vegetables-in-royalty-free-image/1257463364?phrase=retiree%20shopping">Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Social Security is set to <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/releases/2022/#10-2022-2">boost the benefits it provides retirees</a> by 8.7%, the biggest cost-of-living adjustment since 1981. It comes as sky-high inflation continues to eat into incomes and savings.</em></p>
<p><em>The changes are set to take effect in January 2023 and were announced following the release of the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">September 2022 consumer price index report</a>, which showed inflation <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-increase-more-than-expected-september-weekly-jobless-claims-2022-10-13/">climbing more than expected</a> during the month, by 0.4%.</em></p>
<p><em>The automatic adjustment will surely come as a relief to tens of millions of retirees and those who receive <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/ssi/">supplemental security income</a> who may be struggling to afford basic necessities as inflation has accelerated throughout 2022. But an annual adjustment wasn’t always the case – and other government benefits and programs deal with inflation differently.</em></p>
<p><em>John Diamond, who <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/john-w-diamond">directs the Center for Public Finance at Rice’s Baker Institute</a>, explains the history of the Social Security cost-of-living, or COLA, increase, what other benefits are adjusted for inflation and why the government makes these changes.</em></p>
<h2>1. How fast is the cost of living rising?</h2>
<p>The latest data, for September, shows <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">average consumer prices are up 8.2%</a> from a year earlier. The monthly gain of 0.4% was double what economists <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-increase-more-than-expected-september-weekly-jobless-claims-2022-10-13/">surveyed by Reuters had expected</a>. </p>
<p>More troubling, so-called <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL">core inflation</a> – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – gained even more in September, ticking up by 0.6%. Core inflation is a measure that’s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/inflation-figure-that-the-fed-follows-closely-hits-highest-level-since-january-1982.html">closely watched by the Federal Reserve</a>, as it helps show how pervasive and persistent inflation has become in the economy. </p>
<h2>2. How are Social Security benefits adjusted for inflation?</h2>
<p>Automatic adjustments to Social Security benefits began in 1975 after President Richard Nixon signed the 1972 <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/1972amend.html">Social Security amendments</a> into law.</p>
<p>Before 1975, Congress had to act each year to increase benefits to offset the effects of inflation. But this was an inefficient system, as politics would often be injected into a simple economic decision. Under this system, an increase in benefits <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/50mm2.html">could be too small</a> or too large, or could fail to happen at all if one party blocked the change entirely.</p>
<p>Not to mention that with the baby boomers – those born from 1946 to 1964 – entering the labor force it was already clear that Social Security would face long-term funding issues in the future, and so <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally1972b.html">putting the program on autopilot</a> reduced the political risk faced by politicians. </p>
<p>Since then, benefits have climbed automatically by the average increase in consumer prices during the third quarter of a given year from the same period 12 months earlier. This is based on a <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWUR0000SA0#0">version of the consumer price index</a> meant to estimate price changes for working people and has been rising slightly faster than the overall pace of inflation.</p>
<p>While helpful, these inflation adjustments are backward-looking and imperfect. For example, 2022 Social Security benefits <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/cola/">increased by 5.9%</a> from the previous year, even though inflation throughout this year <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL#0">has been significantly higher</a> – which means the higher benefits weren’t covering the higher cost of living. Thus, the 2023 increase in benefits primarily offsets what was lost over the previous year. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white hand holds a card reading social security" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Millions of retirees and other will soon see a big jump in their Social Security benefits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SocialSecurity/6a2e67a3cc6849b8857dee55fa6005ae/photo?Query=inflation&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=8106&currentItemNo=4">AP Photo/Jenny Kane</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Are the benefits taxable?</h2>
<p>A growing portion of Social Security benefits are taxed in the same way as ordinary income, except at different threshold with various caps and percentages. <a href="https://www.socialsecurityintelligence.com/inflation-social-security/">Only 8% of benefits were subject to taxation</a> in 1984, but that’s climbed to almost 50% in recent years. That percentage will likely continue to increase as the taxable thresholds are not adjusted for inflation. </p>
<p>For example, if an individual filer’s income, including benefits, is below US$25,000, <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/dont-forget-social-security-benefits-may-be-taxable">none of that is taxed</a>. But up to 50% of a person’s benefits may be taxed at incomes of $25,000 to $34,000. After that, up to 85% of their benefits may be taxed. </p>
<p>Such a big increase in Social Security benefits likely means some people who paid no tax will now have to pay some, while others will see larger increases in their tax liability. </p>
<h2>4. Why does the government adjust benefits for inflation?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-30/soaring-inflation-to-hit-britain-harder-than-any-other-major-economy-boe-warns">Rapid gains of inflation</a>, like the kind the U.S. and many other countries are currently experiencing, can have significant impacts on the finances of households and businesses. </p>
<p>For example, it might mean seniors cutting back on heating or food. Government policies generally try to account for this to reduce the negative impacts that rising prices can have on those with limited or fixed resources.</p>
<p>In addition, reducing the impacts of price changes creates a more efficient and fair allocation of resources and reduces the arbitrary outcomes that would otherwise occur.</p>
<h2>5. What other government programs typically get a COLA?</h2>
<p>Other government programs and benefits also increase to account for inflation. </p>
<p>The U.S. Department of Agriculture <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/allotment/COLA">estimates the cost of its Thrifty Food Plan</a> each June and adjusts Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP benefits – formerly known as food stamps – in October of each year. Beginning in October 2022, food stamp benefits <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/30/politics/snap-food-stamps-benefits-inflation-increase/index.html">rose by 12.5%</a>, which helps make up for the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIUFDSL#0">largest increases in food prices since the 1970s</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, the federal <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/topics/poverty-economic-mobility/poverty-guidelines">poverty level is adjusted</a> for changes in the consumer price index annually by the Department of Health and Human Services, an adjustment that affects a number of government-provided benefits, such as housing benefits, health insurance and others, including SNAP benefits.</p>
<h2>6. Does the tax system also adjust for inflation?</h2>
<p>While some aspects of the tax code adjust for inflation, others do not. </p>
<p>For example, income tax bracket thresholds, the size of the standard deduction, alternative minimum tax parameters and estate tax provisions <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-provides-tax-inflation-adjustments-for-tax-year-2022">all increase annually for inflation</a>. That means come tax filing season next year, U.S. tax filers will likely see big changes in all these items. </p>
<p>But examples of provisions that are not adjusted for inflation include the maximum value of the child tax credit and the $10,000 cap on the deduction of state and local taxes. In addition, the threshold that determines who is liable for the net investment income tax – the additional 3.8% tax on investment and passive income for taxpayers above a certain income level – doesn’t adjust, which means each year more individuals are subject to it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192371/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John W. Diamond does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Social Security is increasing benefits by 8.7%, beginning in January 2023, to offset the surging cost of living in the US.John W. Diamond, Director of the Center for Public Finance at the Baker Institute, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1894472022-08-26T19:05:48Z2022-08-26T19:05:48ZNASA’s Artemis 1 mission to the Moon sets the stage for routine space exploration beyond Earth’s orbit – here’s what to expect and why it’s important<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495693/original/file-20221116-24-4yuyjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C4346%2C3591&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NASA is going back to the Moon.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasahqphoto/52503608660/">NASA/Bill Ingalls</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>NASA’s Space Launch System rocket <a href="https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2022/11/16/artemis-i-liftoff/">lifted off</a> from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, in the early hours of Nov. 16, 2022. The rocket carried the Orion Crew Capsule as the centerpiece of the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/artemis-1">Artemis 1</a> mission. The journey to the Moon and back is a shakedown cruise with no people aboard – it will test how the Orion Crew Capsule holds up in space. The mission is a key step toward returning humans to the Moon after a <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/apollo/apollo-17">half-century hiatus</a>. The launch was initially scheduled for the morning of Aug. 29, 2022, but was <a href="https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/">postponed three times, twice for technical reasons and once for Hurricane Ian</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>The spacecraft is scheduled to travel to the Moon, deploy some small satellites and then settle into orbit. NASA aims to practice operating the spacecraft, test the conditions crews will experience on and around the Moon, and assure everyone that the spacecraft and any occupants can safely return to Earth.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/faculty/burns/">Jack Burns</a>, a professor and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jack-Burns-5">space scientist</a> at the University of Colorado Boulder and former member of the Presidential Transition Team for NASA, to describe the mission, explain what the Artemis program promises to do for space exploration, and reflect on how the space program has changed in the half-century since humans last set foot on the lunar surface.</em></p>
<h2>How does Artemis 1 differ from the other rockets being launched routinely?</h2>
<p>Artemis 1 is the first flight of the new <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html">Space Launch System</a>. This is a “heavy lift” vehicle, as NASA refers to it. It is the most powerful rocket engine ever flown to space, even more powerful than <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/5-8/features/nasa-knows/what-was-the-saturn-v-58.html">Apollo’s Saturn V</a> system that took astronauts to the Moon in the 1960s and ‘70s. </p>
<p>It’s a new type of rocket system, because it has both a combination of liquid oxygen and hydrogen main engines and two strap-on solid rocket boosters derived from the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/shuttle/main/index.html">space shuttle</a>. It’s really a hybrid between the space shuttle and Apollo’s <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/5-8/features/nasa-knows/what-was-the-saturn-v-58.html">Saturn V</a> rocket. </p>
<hr>
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<hr>
<p>Testing is very important, because the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/orion/about/index.html">Orion Crew Capsule</a> is going to be getting a real workout. It will be in the space environment of the Moon, a high-radiation environment, for a month. And, very importantly, it will be testing the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/heat-shield-milestone-complete-for-first-orion-mission-with-crew">heat shield</a>, which protects the capsule and its occupants, when it comes back to the Earth at 25,000 miles per hour. This will be the fastest capsule reentry since Apollo, so it’s very important that the heat shield function well.</p>
<p>This mission is also carrying a series of small satellites that will be placed in orbit of the Moon. Those will do some useful precursor science, everything from looking further into the permanently shadowed craters where scientists think there is water to just doing more measurements of the radiation environment, seeing what the effects will be on humans for long-term exposure.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481324/original/file-20220826-26-zbdpp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram showing the earth, moon and flight path of a spacecraft" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481324/original/file-20220826-26-zbdpp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481324/original/file-20220826-26-zbdpp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481324/original/file-20220826-26-zbdpp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481324/original/file-20220826-26-zbdpp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481324/original/file-20220826-26-zbdpp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481324/original/file-20220826-26-zbdpp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481324/original/file-20220826-26-zbdpp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The plan is for Artemis 1 to lift off, travel to the Moon, deploy satellites, orbit the Moon, return to Earth, safely enter the atmosphere and splash down in the ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/artemis-i-map">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s the goal of the Artemis project? What’s coming up in the series of launches?</h2>
<p>The mission is a first step toward <a href="https://www.space.com/artemis-3-moon-landing-mission">Artemis 3</a>, which is going to result in the first human missions to the Moon in the 21st century and the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/apollo/apollo-17">first since 1972</a>. Artemis 1 is an uncrewed test flight. </p>
<p>Artemis 2, which is scheduled to launch a few years after that, will have astronauts on board. It, too, will be an orbital mission, very much like <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/apollo/apollo-8.html">Apollo 8</a>, which circled the Moon and came back home. The astronauts will spend a longer time orbiting the Moon and will test everything with a human crew. </p>
<p>And, finally, that will lead to a journey to the surface of the Moon in which Artemis 3 – sometime middecade – will rendezvous with the <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/index.html">SpaceX Starship</a> and transfer crew. Orion will remain in orbit, and the lunar Starship will take the astronauts to the surface. They will go to the south pole of the Moon to look at an area scientists haven’t explored before to investigate <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/ice-confirmed-at-the-moon-s-poles">the water ice there</a>.</p>
<h2>Artemis is reminiscent of Apollo. What has changed in the past half-century?</h2>
<p>The reason for Apollo that Kennedy envisioned initially was to <a href="https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/space-missions/jfk-space-race-moon-shot-speech/">beat the Soviet Union to the Moon</a>. The administration didn’t particularly care about space travel, or about the Moon itself, but it represented an audacious goal that would clearly put America first in terms of space and technology. </p>
<p>The downside of doing that is the old saying “You live by the sword, you die by the sword.” When the U.S. got to the Moon, it was basically game over. The United States beat the Russians. So it put some flags down and did some science experiments. But pretty quickly after Apollo 11, within a few more missions, <a href="https://www.wired.com/2013/09/ending-apollo-1968/">Richard Nixon canceled the program</a> because the political objectives had been met.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481319/original/file-20220826-14-lqw3h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a large rocket with two boosters attached to its sides standing between two massive gantries" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481319/original/file-20220826-14-lqw3h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481319/original/file-20220826-14-lqw3h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481319/original/file-20220826-14-lqw3h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481319/original/file-20220826-14-lqw3h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481319/original/file-20220826-14-lqw3h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481319/original/file-20220826-14-lqw3h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481319/original/file-20220826-14-lqw3h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NASA’s new Space Launch System is seen here being moved from the rocket assembly building to a launchpad.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images-assets.nasa.gov/image/KSC-20220816-PH-JBS01_0092/KSC-20220816-PH-JBS01_0092~thumb.jpg">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So fast-forward 50 years. This is a very different environment. The U.S. is not doing this to beat the Russians or the Chinese or anybody else, but to begin a sustainable exploration beyond Earth’s orbit.</p>
<p>The Artemis program is driven by a number of different goals. It includes <a href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20190025283/downloads/20190025283.pdf">in situ resource utilization</a>, which means using resources at hand like water ice and lunar soil to produce food, fuel and building materials.</p>
<p>The program is also helping to establish a lunar and space economy, starting with entrepreneurs, because SpaceX is very much part of this first mission to the surface of the Moon. NASA doesn’t own the Starship but is buying seats to allow astronauts to go to the surface. SpaceX will then use the Starship for other purposes – to transport other payloads, private astronauts and astronauts from other countries.</p>
<p>Fifty years of technology development means that going to the Moon now is much less expensive and more technologically feasible, and much more sophisticated experiments are possible when you just figure the computer technology. Those 50 years of technological advancement have been a complete game-changer. Almost anybody with the financial resources can send spacecraft to the Moon now, though not necessarily with humans. </p>
<p>NASA’s <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/content/commercial-lunar-payload-services">Commercial Lunar Payload Services</a> contracts private companies to build uncrewed landers to go to the Moon. My colleagues and I have a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/abdfc3">radio telescope</a> that’s scheduled to go to the Moon on one of the landers in March. That just wouldn’t have been possible even 10 years ago.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7toE-Cd5S2w?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Artemis is an ambitious program, but technology has advanced tremendously in the 50 years since humans last went to the Moon.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What other changes does Artemis have in store?</h2>
<p>The administration has said that in that first crewed flight, on Artemis 3, there <a href="https://www.space.com/nasa-artemis-astronauts-for-moon-landing-unveiled">will be at least one woman</a> and very likely a person of color. They may be one and the same. There may be several. </p>
<p>I’m looking forward to seeing more of that diversity, because young kids today who are looking up at NASA can say, “Hey, there’s an astronaut who looks like me. I can do this. I can be part of the space program.”</p>
<p><em>This article was updated on Nov. 16, 2022, to indicate that NASA launched the rocket.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189447/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Burns receives funding from NASA for science research.</span></em></p>When the Orion Crew Capsule orbits the Moon there will be no one on board. But the mission will mark a key step in bringing humans back to Earth’s dusty sidekick.Jack Burns, Professor of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1866812022-07-08T18:42:09Z2022-07-08T18:42:09ZJune jobs report suggests Fed could avoid a recession – but room for error is minuscule<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473225/original/file-20220708-17-txirzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=116%2C124%2C4841%2C3574&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fed Chair Jerome Powell is hoping to orchestrate a very delicate dance. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FederalReservePowell/d31abb0e247d410894f1f2674e917407/photo?Query=Jerome%20powell&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1666&currentItemNo=23">AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The U.S. economy <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-08/us-job-gains-top-estimates-unemployment-rate-holds-at-3-6?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg&sref=Hjm5biAW">added more jobs than expected</a> in June, signaling the labor market remains strong even as the Federal Reserve tries to weaken it to tame inflation. The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">July 8, 2022, jobs report</a> also showed the unemployment rate <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE">remained at a 70-year low</a> of 3.6%.</em></p>
<p><em>Does this mean the U.S. will avoid a <a href="https://theconversation.com/fed-hopes-for-soft-landing-for-the-us-economy-but-history-suggests-it-wont-be-able-to-prevent-a-recession-182270">Fed-induced recession</a>?</em></p>
<p><em>We asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rRWXpyYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Christopher Decker</a>, an economist at the University of Nebraska Omaha, to explain the numbers and what they mean for the Fed and the economy.</em></p>
<h2>What did we learn in the June jobs report?</h2>
<p>The report showed that the economy added 372,000 jobs in June. While this figure is down from a revised increase of 384,000 in May and is much lower than other recent gains, it’s <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=8eiB">still very good by historical standards</a>. </p>
<p>Gains were across the board with all key sectors adding to the total increase in nonfarm payrolls. </p>
<p>Generally speaking, people continue to be pulled back into the labor force, largely by higher wages as well as the rising cost of living, which makes it harder for families to go without a steady income stream. For example, the number of people employed part time for economic reasons declined by 707,000 in June. This seems to suggest that there is increased desire for, and an ability to secure, a higher-paying, more stable full-time job. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002">female labor force participation rate declined slightly</a> to 56.8% – which is over a percentage point below what it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. This figure is worth watching closely and may be because women are hesitant to reenter the workforce or are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/07/business/economy/women-labor-caregiving.html">struggling to find child care</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="96qj9" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/96qj9/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>So does this mean there won’t be a recession?</h2>
<p>That’s the big question. </p>
<p>June gains were strong, but the job market is clearly cooling off. And there’s evidence the <a href="https://money.com/slowing-economy-signals/">broader economy is weakening</a> – two signs the Fed’s <a href="https://nrf.com/research/monthly-economic-review-july-2022">recent aggressive efforts</a> to reduce inflation by choking off growth are working. </p>
<p>The housing market is a case in point. Average 30-year mortgage rates <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US">shot up to a 13-year high</a> of 5.8% in June after the Fed lifted rates by 0.75 percentage point, which has had a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/20/homes/slowing-housing-market/index.html">chilling effect on home purchases</a>. </p>
<p>And now we’re seeing the effect in residential construction jobs, which <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES2023610001">declined for the first time in a year</a> as higher borrowing costs dampened demand. This is a sector I like to look at closely to help determine if what the Fed is doing is taking root in the economy. </p>
<p>In addition, in May, retail sales <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/retail-sales-may-2022-unexpected-0point3percent-decline-hammered-by-inflation.html">unexpectedly declined </a> and a forward-looking economic index <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators">fell for a second straight month</a> – both signals of a slowing economy. </p>
<h2>Can a recession be avoided?</h2>
<p>It may seem strange that the U.S. central bank is trying to actually hurt economic growth, but that just shows how important policymakers think it is to fight soaring inflation, which is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/10/economy/may-inflation-gas-prices/index.html">currently the highest in over 40 years</a>.</p>
<p>The problem of rising prices is of major concern to the Fed, as it is a <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/in-plain-english/the-fed-and-the-dual-mandate">key component of its “dual mandate”</a> to control inflation and maintain healthy job growth.</p>
<p>Runaway inflation <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/insights/122016/9-common-effects-inflation.asp">is cancerous to any economy</a>. When price growth outpaces that of income, consumers have to curb spending. Production declines and people lose their jobs. The Fed’s only means of reducing inflation is to curb demand by reducing the supply of money and increasing interest rates. This, however, also curbs economic growth. So the Fed is trying to manage a “soft landing” – which means reducing inflation without hurting growth so much that it causes a recession.</p>
<p>There are some early signs the Fed is succeeding. The economy is slowing, though June jobs show underlying strength in the labor market. At the same time, inflation appears to be easing as well, in part thanks to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/07/05/oil-falls-below-100-per-barrel-for-first-time-since-may-as-strong-likelihood-of-recession-hurts-demand/?sh=630306dce2f4">falling global demand for oil</a>. U.S. gasoline prices – the most visible price consumers see every single day – has come down in recent weeks after <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW">peaking at a record US$5</a> in June. </p>
<p>But executing a soft landing is a delicate dance for the Fed. The central bank can reduce demand for things via interest rates, but it can’t do much about supply. The primary reason energy and food costs <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">have been skyrocketing in recent months</a> is not high demand but the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-effect-of-the-war-in-ukraine-on-global-activity-and-inflation-20220527.htm">war in Ukraine</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/03/12/1086309021/u-s-gas-prices-hit-record-highs-following-sanctions-on-russia">Sanctions on Russia</a>, the world’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/russian-supplies-to-global-energy-markets/oil-market-and-russian-supply-2">second-largest crude oil exporter</a>, and <a href="https://newsrnd.com/business/2022-07-06-oil--russia-halts-transit-from-kazakhstan-to-europe.H1Dko9fiq.html">reduced shipments from Russia</a> to parts of Europe have disrupted energy markets and driven up global oil prices. </p>
<p>And Ukraine, a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61583492">key producer of food and other agricultural goods</a>, is struggling to export corn, wheat and other products because Russia <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/07/ukraine-grain-farmers-black-sea-blockade/">is blockading key ports</a>. </p>
<p>Continuing shortages of energy and food mean inflation could stay elevated no matter what the Fed does. And that could result in the Fed’s having to lift interest rates a lot and cut growth to the bone to have a meaningful effect on rising prices. </p>
<p>This makes the Fed’s current dance the most delicate it has attempted <a href="https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-inflation">since the 1980s</a>, and it must be executed flawlessly for it to succeed. The June jobs report is good news, but the economy isn’t out of the woods yet. Data in August and September will be crucial to knowing in which direction the economy is heading – toward recession or not.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186681/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Decker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US economy gained more jobs than expected in June, although it was still a decline from May. An economist explains what the new numbers mean.Christopher Decker, Professor of Economics, University of Nebraska OmahaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1856842022-06-23T17:39:11Z2022-06-23T17:39:11ZThe Supreme Court tends to save the biggest rulings for last – a constitutional expert explains a few good reasons<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470599/original/file-20220623-51933-m4o7lp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=117%2C66%2C3073%2C2273&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">US Supreme Court justices arrive at the US Capitol in February 2022 </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/supreme-court-justices-arrive-for-the-state-of-the-union-address-at-picture-id1198669362?s=2048x2048">Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The U.S. Supreme Court <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/20-843_7j80.pdf">struck down</a> a New York law on June 23, 2022 that had imposed strict limits on carrying a handgun in public. It was a much anticipated decision, as the court continues to issue <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov">opinions ahead of</a> wrapping its term in <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/when-roe-v-wade-decision-supreme-court-ruling-expected-1717354">the next week or two</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>But people were being kept waiting about when exactly the court’s ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which could overturn Roe v. Wade, will be issued.</em></p>
<p><em>The court announces what days it will release rulings and is only scheduled to announce more on June 24. No one outside the court knows which major rulings will be published when – or if the court could decide to release more opinions into early July.</em></p>
<p><em>There’s a reason the court remains so secretive and why its abortion ruling appears likely to be one of the last before the court lets out for the summer. We asked constitutional scholar and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Stefanie-Lindquist-2">Supreme Court expert Stefanie Lindquist</a> to explain what’s behind the court keeping a tight lid on its work.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470603/original/file-20220623-51812-oc3i1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white photo shows Clarence Thomas seated in an office, surrounded by young people in formal clothing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470603/original/file-20220623-51812-oc3i1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470603/original/file-20220623-51812-oc3i1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470603/original/file-20220623-51812-oc3i1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470603/original/file-20220623-51812-oc3i1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470603/original/file-20220623-51812-oc3i1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470603/original/file-20220623-51812-oc3i1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470603/original/file-20220623-51812-oc3i1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">US Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas talks with his legal clerks in 2002.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/supreme-court-justice-clarence-thomas-meets-with-his-law-clerks-in-picture-id2397023?s=2048x2048">Dave Hume Kennerly/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Does research back up this idea that the court saves the most high-profile rulings for last?</strong></p>
<p>There has been <a href="https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=3799&context=dlj">very careful research</a> done by very distinguished scholars and judges who tested the proposition that the court’s most important decisions are handed down late in the term. They measured importance based upon the extent to which the New York Times covered that case. And their research confirmed that it is absolutely true that the most highly important decisions the court renders – ones that overturn precedent, for example – aren’t announced until the end of the term. </p>
<p>One reason may be because the court is being particularly careful about the content of those decisions. And because they might have involved more negotiations over the content of the opinion itself, or involved the extra work of writing dissents and concurrences.</p>
<p><strong>Is it clear why they release these major decisions at the end of the term?</strong></p>
<p>There’s been some speculation they want to wait to issue these opinions right before they leave town. Because they’re social creatures as all of us are, some speculate that they don’t want to have to discuss these cases in their social circles. But I think it’s most likely that it is a combination of workload and because these cases are more time intensive. The justices also understand the public impact these cases can have. But, ultimately, it’s not clear exactly why they do it.</p>
<p><strong>The court is known for its secrecy. What’s the point of the court being so tight-lipped about its decisions?</strong></p>
<p>The court is an institution that has, over time, very carefully husbanded its <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/02/02/publics-views-of-supreme-court-turned-more-negative-before-news-of-breyers-retirement/">legitimacy in the eyes of the public</a>.</p>
<p>The late Justice Antonin Scalia <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/03/supreme-court-draft-opinion-secrecy-00029815">required his clerks</a> to sign an agreement respecting the privacy of the court’s deliberations. He told them that if they violated this secrecy, he would do everything he could to undermine their future careers. </p>
<p>The court is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/covid-us-supreme-court-health-87c198ea3de079eaf3121ffeb4985ba0">very careful</a> about ensuring that once it issues an opinion, it is the final opinion. Revealing any internal and potentially divisive dynamics related to the court’s decision-making process could undermine the force and effect of a Supreme Court decision.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470607/original/file-20220623-13-dwj0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A police officer is seen standing outside a suburban home, next to a large poster that shows a drawing of Brett Kavanaugh's face, with the word liar above it" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470607/original/file-20220623-13-dwj0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470607/original/file-20220623-13-dwj0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470607/original/file-20220623-13-dwj0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470607/original/file-20220623-13-dwj0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470607/original/file-20220623-13-dwj0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470607/original/file-20220623-13-dwj0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470607/original/file-20220623-13-dwj0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police stood guard outside Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home in June as protestors marched past his home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/montgomery-county-police-officer-stands-guard-as-protesters-march-picture-id1241187931?s=2048x2048">Nathan Howard/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Why do they not even say when a specific decision will be announced?</strong></p>
<p>I think it’s probably difficult for them to predict the exact timing of decisions, frankly. Remember, the court’s final opinions are the result of a negotiation among the individual justices. And until they’re ready, they can’t necessarily say, “This is the day we’re going to sign off,” especially at the end of the term when many of these very important decisions are announced. </p>
<p>There may be negotiations and proofreading up to the very last minute. The justices no doubt appreciate that these highly important decisions are going to end up in law school textbooks. They’re going to be carefully read by journalists. And the justices are a highly professional group of individuals. </p>
<p>So they’re concerned about every opinion they issue. But with these opinions they issue at the end of the term, that tend to be the most important decisions they render – they’re even more concerned about being precise in every sentence they write</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefanie Lindquist does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Supreme Court held off at least another day before announcing a ruling on abortion rights. High profile cases take more time to finalize, but there are also political and public relations factors.Stefanie Lindquist, Foundation Professor of Law and Political Science, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1853422022-06-22T11:22:47Z2022-06-22T11:22:47ZHow Octavia E. Butler mined her boundless curiosity to forge a new vision for humanity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469849/original/file-20220620-14209-9u1snj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C1747%2C1140&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Octavia E. Butler poses in a Seattle bookstore in 2004. The celebrated science fiction author died in 2006.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.trbimg.com/img-5912ac85/turbine/la-1494396033-a3umy5cuis-snap-image">AP Photo/Joshua Trujillo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In 2021, <a href="https://sc.edu/study/colleges_schools/artsandsciences/english_language_and_literature/our_people/directory/collins_alyssa.php">Alyssa Collins</a> was awarded a yearlong Octavia E. Butler Fellowship from <a href="https://www.huntington.org/">The Huntington Library, Art Museum, and Botanical Gardens</a> in San Marino, California.</em> </p>
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<img alt="Woman poses in black shirt with one arm on hip." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470068/original/file-20220621-25-qlybds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470068/original/file-20220621-25-qlybds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=686&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470068/original/file-20220621-25-qlybds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=686&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470068/original/file-20220621-25-qlybds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=686&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470068/original/file-20220621-25-qlybds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=863&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470068/original/file-20220621-25-qlybds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=863&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470068/original/file-20220621-25-qlybds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=863&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Alyssa Collins.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://sc.edu/study/colleges_schools/artsandsciences/african_american_studies/images/profile_images/collins_alyssa255x300.jpg">University of South Carolina</a></span>
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<p><em>Butler, whose papers are held at the Huntington, was the first science fiction writer to be awarded a MacArthur Genius Grant. A pioneering writer in a genre long dominated by white men, her work explored power structures, shifting definitions of humanity and alternative societies.</em></p>
<p><em>In an interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Collins explains how Butler’s boundless curiosity inspired the author’s work, and how Butler’s experiences as a Black woman drew her to “humans who must deal with the edges or ends of humanity.”</em> </p>
<p><em>Butler, who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/01/books/octavia-e-butler-science-fiction-writer-dies-at-58.html">died in 2006</a>, would have turned 75 years old on June 22, 2022.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><strong>How did you become interested in Octavia E. Butler?</strong></p>
<p>I first read Butler’s work in a graduate course on feminist literature and theory. We read “<a href="https://www.grandcentralpublishing.com/titles/octavia-e-butler/parable-of-the-sower/9781538732182/">Parable of the Sower</a>,” an apocalyptic novel published in 1993 but set in 21st-century America. I was really intrigued by the prescient nature of the novel. But I wanted to know if she had anything weirder on her backlist.</p>
<p>I managed to get my hands on “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/style/longterm/books/chap1/bloodchi.htm">Bloodchild</a>,” an award-winning short story that came out in 1984 about aliens and male pregnancy. After reading that story, I was pretty much hooked.</p>
<p><strong>Can you give us an idea of the scope of this collection, in terms of its volume and value, and how much of it you were able to read during your fellowship?</strong></p>
<p>The Octavia E. Butler collection consists of manuscripts, correspondence, photos, research materials and ephemera. It’s housed in 386 boxes, one volume, two binders and 18 broadside folders. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469845/original/file-20220620-24-wdikss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Magazine cover with drawing of insect and young person with hole in body." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469845/original/file-20220620-24-wdikss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469845/original/file-20220620-24-wdikss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=887&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469845/original/file-20220620-24-wdikss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=887&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469845/original/file-20220620-24-wdikss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=887&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469845/original/file-20220620-24-wdikss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1114&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469845/original/file-20220620-24-wdikss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1114&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469845/original/file-20220620-24-wdikss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1114&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Octavia E. Butler’s short story ‘Bloodchild’ appeared in a 1984 issue of Asimov’s Science Fiction magazine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://file770.com/wp-content/uploads/Butler-bloodchild-asimovs-cover.jpg">File 770</a></span>
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<p>As you can imagine, it’s a great deal of collected material – so much, that when I began my fellowship, I was told by the curator who processed the collection that I wouldn’t be able to see everything. </p>
<p>I’ve spent most of my time working through Butler’s research materials, her correspondence with authors and her drafting materials, including her notecards and notebooks. I’ve found that the content in these notebooks has been an invaluable window into Butler’s scientific thinking. </p>
<p><strong>What was one of the most surprising things you learned about Butler from the collection?</strong></p>
<p>Even given what I knew about Butler as a celebrated writer and scholar, every day I spent in her archive only increased the amount of esteem I hold for her. I was continually surprised by not only the breadth of her interests and the depth of her knowledge, but also in the way she was able to synthesize seemingly disparate topics. </p>
<p>Her interest in subjects such as slime-molds, cancer and biotechnology come through in her stories in ways that readers might not expect. Take Butler’s interest in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.08.001">symbiogenesis</a>, an evolutionary theory based on cooperation rather than Darwinian competition. In “Bloodchild,” in which humans help insectlike aliens procreate, readers can see Butler plumbing this theory by imagining different ways humans can interact and evolve with other species. </p>
<p><strong>Your project is called “Cellular Blackness: Octavia E. Butler’s Posthuman Ontologies.” What is posthumanism and how does it relate to Butler’s work?</strong></p>
<p>My book project was born out of a project I started in graduate school that was interested in how Black speculative writers in the 20th century imagined and interacted with a field of thought called <a href="https://ethics.org.au/ethics-explainer-post-humanism/">posthumanism</a>. Scholars of posthumanism think about the limits of what makes us human – or how we define humanity – and if there are couplings with technology that might make us posthuman now or in the future. </p>
<p>I wanted to know how Black writers were engaging with the idea or concept of posthumanism when Blackness <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/soc4.12913">had historically been imagined as inhuman</a> – in, for example, justifications for the trans-Atlantic slave trade, Jim Crow segregation and ongoing state violence against Black people. </p>
<p>What interested me about Butler’s work is that her writing consistently represents humans who must deal with the edges or ends of humanity. She also places important decisions about humanity in the hands of Black women characters – individuals who have been dehumanized or erased. My book project looks at how Butler imagines these decisive moments and how she sees humanity defined and realized in her novels.</p>
<p><strong>What about this idea of “cellular Blackness”?</strong></p>
<p>It seems that Butler’s own speculative investigation of humanity doesn’t happen on the scale of bodies, but instead on the scale of cells. </p>
<p>In Butler’s 1987 novel “<a href="https://www.grandcentralpublishing.com/titles/octavia-e-butler/dawn/9781538753712/">Dawn</a>,” a Black woman named Lilith considers helping a group of aliens who are interested in interbreeding with humans in a way that would effectively “end” the human race. Lilith, who has a history of cancer in her family and a tumor that the aliens removed, has what the aliens call a “talent for cancer.” They’re interested in the possibilities that could come from regulating cellular growth.</p>
<p>It turns out that Butler was interested in the story of <a href="https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/henriettalacks/">Henrietta Lacks</a>, a 31-year-old Black cancer patient whose tumor cells were collected without her knowledge at Johns Hopkins in 1951. Unlike the other samples that had been collected at the lab over the years, Lacks’ rapidly reproduced and stayed alive even after Lacks died that same year. To this day, her prolific cell line – <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-hela-cells-a-cancer-biologist-explains-169913">called HeLa cells</a> – are used around the world to study cancer cells and the effects of various treatment. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Sepia toned portrait photograph of young woman on a mantle." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469847/original/file-20220620-12734-23dmfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469847/original/file-20220620-12734-23dmfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469847/original/file-20220620-12734-23dmfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469847/original/file-20220620-12734-23dmfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469847/original/file-20220620-12734-23dmfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469847/original/file-20220620-12734-23dmfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469847/original/file-20220620-12734-23dmfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Octavia E. Butler was fascinated by the story of Henrietta Lacks and her famous cell line.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/photo-of-henrietta-lacks-sits-in-the-living-room-of-her-news-photo/1234369412?adppopup=true">Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>In her unpublished notes, Butler imagines what HeLa cells, with their unending replication, could offer outside of a person’s death. In works like “Dawn,” you can see Butler thinking about cellular replication as a concept that extends humanity, whether it’s symbiosis with other species or through human evolution. </p>
<p><strong>The “<a href="https://www.octaviabutler.com/parableseries">Parable</a>” books, which were written in the 1990s and set in the 2020s, have seen a resurgence in popularity in recent years. Butler’s vision of the near future in these works – with society on the brink due to looming environmental catastrophe, unchecked corporate greed and worsening economic inequality – seems prescient. Did your time in the collection give you any new insights on their enduring relevance?</strong></p>
<p>At Butler makes clear, the problems of extreme climate change, income inequality, capitalistic exploitation, housing shortages, racial prejudice and the defunding of education aren’t new problems. </p>
<p>She read widely – newspapers, scientific textbooks, anthropological tomes, fiction, self-help books – and thought deeply about what she read. I think Butler simply took what she learned from these sources, which hinted at where things were heading, and imagined what a not-so-distant future would look like if nothing were fixed. </p>
<p>Well, as Butler shows us, these problems haven’t been fixed, and they’ve only worsened in the 30-plus years since she wrote the books. </p>
<p>The first “Parable” novel’s protagonist, Lauren, creates a belief system called “Earthseed.” It contains mottos of change – for example, “God is Change” and “All that you Change, Changes you” – and I think Butler hoped Earthseed might encourage people to change the world in some meaningful way. These books feel relevant because there are still a lot of people who are interested in pushing for, imagining and making change.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.sc.edu/study/colleges_schools/artsandsciences/about/contact-us/faculty-staff/erskine_laura.php">Laura Erskine</a> contributed to this interview.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185342/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alyssa Collins has received funding from The Huntington Library. </span></em></p>In an interview, scholar Alyssa Collins explains how her time spent plumbing the sci fi writer’s papers left her stunned by the breadth of her interests and the depth of her scientific knowledge.Alyssa Collins, Assistant Professor of English Language and Literature, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1850082022-06-14T20:40:58Z2022-06-14T20:40:58Z5 things to know about the Fed’s biggest interest rate increase since 1994 and how it will affect you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469079/original/file-20220615-11-63gzwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=152%2C38%2C4933%2C3347&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wall Street is following Fed rate hike news with rapt attention.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FinancialMarketsWallStreet/d2818af5986b470aaf03d5dba065759d/photo?Query=federal%20reserve&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=9007&currentItemNo=10">AP Photo/Seth Wenig</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220615a.htm">Federal Reserve on June 15, 2022</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/fed-hikes-rates-75-basis-points-intensifying-inflation-fight?sref=Hjm5biAW">lifted interest rates</a> by 0.75 percentage point, the third hike this year and the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket_archive.htm">largest since 1994</a>. The move is aimed at countering the <a href="https://theconversation.com/inflation-hits-fresh-40-year-high-pushing-fed-to-get-more-aggressive-with-interest-rates-and-the-beveridge-curve-should-give-it-courage-to-do-so-184896">fastest pace of inflation in over 40 years</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Wall Street had been expecting a half-point increase, but the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">latest consumer prices report</a> released on June 10 prompted the Fed to take a more drastic measure. The big risk, however, is that higher rates will push the economy into a recession, a fear aptly expressed by the recent <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bo-fa-survey-investor-misery-stock-market-enters-bear-market-105822248.html">plunge in the S&P 500 stock index</a>, which is down over 20% from its peak in January, making it a “bear market.”</em></p>
<p><em>What does this all mean? We asked Brian Blank, a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=VxWst50AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">finance scholar</a> who <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0929119921002406">studies how businesses adapt and handle economic downturns</a>, to explain what the Fed is trying to do, whether it can succeed and what it means for you.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is the Fed doing and why?</h2>
<p>The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policymaking arm, had been pondering how much and how quickly to raise its benchmark interest rate over the coming months to fight inflation. The stakes for the U.S. economy, consumers and businesses are very high.</p>
<p>Only a week ago, the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/powell-reiterates-half-point-hikes-are-likely-in-june-and-july">Fed had been expected</a> to raise rates by 0.5 percentage point at the latest meeting. But <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/bad-inflation-reports-raise-odds-of-surprise-0-75-percentage-point-rate-rise-this-week-11655147927">markets and Wall Street economists began to expect</a> the larger 0.75-point hike after the May consumer price data suggested inflation has been unexpectedly stubborn. Some Wall Street analysts <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-13/wall-street-floats-100-basis-point-fed-hike-as-inflation-stings">even argued</a> a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-13/wall-street-floats-100-basis-point-fed-hike-as-inflation-stings">1-percentage-point hike was possible</a>.</p>
<p>The prospect of a faster pace of rate hikes due to inflation has prompted <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND?sref=Hjm5biAW">financial markets to plunge by over 6%</a> since the June 10 report. Investors worry the Fed may slow the economy too much in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-raising-interest-rates-curbs-inflation-and-what-could-possibly-go-wrong-176426">its fight to reduce inflation</a>, which if left unchecked also <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/inflation-impact-on-economy-3306102">poses serious problems</a> for consumers and companies. A recent poll found that inflation <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/05/12/by-a-wide-margin-americans-view-inflation-as-the-top-problem-facing-the-country-today/">is the biggest problem</a> Americans believe the U.S. is facing right now.</p>
<h2>2. What is the Fed trying to achieve?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.federalreserveeducation.org/about-the-fed/structure-and-functions/monetary-policy">Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to maximize employment while keeping prices stable</a>.</p>
<p>Often policymakers must prioritize one or the other. When the economy is weak, inflation is usually subdued and the Fed can focus on keeping rates down to stimulate investment and boost employment. When the economy is strong, unemployment is typically quite low, and that allows the Fed to focus on controlling inflation. </p>
<p>To do this, the Fed sets short-term interest rates, which in turn help it influence long-term rates. For example, when the Fed lifts its target short-term rate, that increases borrowing costs for banks, which in turn pass those higher costs on to consumers and businesses in the form of higher rates on <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/october/increases-fed-funds-rate-impact-other-interest-rates">long-term loans for houses and cars</a>. </p>
<p>At the moment, the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N">economy is quite strong</a>, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf">unemployment is
low</a>, and the Fed is able to focus primarily on reducing inflation. The problem is, inflation is so high, at <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">an annualized rate of 8.6%</a>, that bringing it down may require the highest interest rates in decades, which could weaken the economy substantially. </p>
<p>And so the Fed is trying to execute a so-called soft landing. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white guy with graying hair speaks standing in front of US flag" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469078/original/file-20220615-21-jl2hwl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469078/original/file-20220615-21-jl2hwl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469078/original/file-20220615-21-jl2hwl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469078/original/file-20220615-21-jl2hwl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469078/original/file-20220615-21-jl2hwl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469078/original/file-20220615-21-jl2hwl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469078/original/file-20220615-21-jl2hwl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced a rate hike of 0.75 percentage point on June 15, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FederalReservePowell/7c915f351dac459499bfae4709930cf7/photo?Query=federal%20reserve&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=9007&currentItemNo=18">AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>3. What’s a ‘soft landing’ and is it likely?</h2>
<p>A soft landing refers to the way that the Fed is attempting to slow inflation – and therefore economic growth – without causing a <a href="https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating">recession</a>.</p>
<p>In order to stabilize prices while not hurting employment, the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf">Fed expects</a> to increase interest rates very rapidly in the coming months. Including the latest rate hike, the Fed has already lifted rates by 1.5 percentage points this year, putting its benchmark interest rate at a range of 1.5% to 1.75%.</p>
<p>Historically, when the Fed <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS">has had to raise rates quickly</a>, economic downturns have been difficult to avoid. Can it manage a soft landing this time? <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2022/05/12/fed-chair-jerome-powell-controlling-inflation-will-include-some-pain/">Fed Chair Jerome Powell has insisted</a> that the central bank’s policy tools have become more effective since its last inflation fight in the 1980s, making it possible this time to stick the landing. <a href="https://theconversation.com/fed-hopes-for-soft-landing-for-the-us-economy-but-history-suggests-it-wont-be-able-to-prevent-a-recession-182270">Many economists</a> and other observers remain uncertain. And a <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/06/13/recession-economists-survey-2023-inflation-interest-rates/">recent survey of economists</a> notes that many anticipate a recession beginning next year.</p>
<p>That said, the economy <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/03/business/economy/forecasters-expect-job-gains-to-slow-yet-remain-solid.html">is still relatively strong</a>, and I’d say the the odds of a recession beginning next year are still <a href="https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/recession-blues-unfounded-fear">probably close to a coin flip</a>. </p>
<h2>4. Is there any way to tell what the Fed might do next?</h2>
<p>Each time the Federal Open Market Committee meets, it seeks to communicate what it plans to do in the future to help financial markets know what to expect so they aren’t taken by surprise.</p>
<p>One piece of guidance about the future that the committee provides is a series of dots, with each point representing a particular member’s expectation for interest rates at different points in time. <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220316.pdf">This “dot plot</a>” previously indicated that the Fed will raise interest rates to 2% by the end of the year and close to 3% by the end of 2023.</p>
<p>The latest inflation news is forcing it to change its tune. The <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf">dot plot now suggests the Fed expects rates</a> to near 3.5% by December – implying several large rate hikes are still in store this year – and almost 4% in 2023 before falling again in 2024.</p>
<p>Long-term interest rates, such as <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202206">U.S. Treasury yields</a> and <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06112022">mortgage rates</a>, already reflect these rapid changes. Some investors, however, think the Fed may have to move even faster and are forecasting rates approaching <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cenfis/market-probability-tracker">4% by the end of 2022</a>. </p>
<h2>5. What does this mean for consumers and the economy?</h2>
<p>Interest rates represent the cost of borrowing, so when the Fed raises the target rate, money becomes more expensive to borrow. </p>
<p>First, banks pay more to borrow money, but then they charge individuals and businesses more interest as well, which is why mortgage rates rise accordingly. This is one reason <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/what-s-the-average-mortgage-payment-monthly-cost-hits-record-for-30-year-loan">mortgage payments</a> have been rising so rapidly in 2022, even as housing markets and prices start to slow down. </p>
<p>When interest rates are higher, fewer people can afford homes and fewer businesses can afford to invest in a new factory and hire more workers. As a result, higher interest rates can slow down the growth rate of the economy overall, while also curbing inflation.</p>
<p>And this isn’t an issue affecting just Americans. Higher interest rates in the U.S. <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1227.pdf">can have similar impacts on the global economy</a>, whether by driving up their borrowing costs or increasing the value of the dollar, which makes it more expensive to purchase U.S. goods.</p>
<p>But what it ultimately means for consumers and everyone else will depend on whether the pace of inflation slows as much and as quickly as the Fed has been forecasting. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated to include results of FOMC interest rates announcement.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185008/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>D. Brian Blank does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Fed raised interest rates the most in nearly three decades to fight stubborn inflation. A finance expert explains what’s happening, the risks and what it means for consumers.D. Brian Blank, Assistant Professor of Finance, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.