tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/queensland-floods-2013-4676/articlesQueensland floods 2013 – The Conversation2013-03-03T19:27:06Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/125802013-03-03T19:27:06Z2013-03-03T19:27:06ZAngry summer shaped by a shifting climate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20822/original/38q5kppq-1362193613.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C3%2C1020%2C508&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Heat, floods and fire: it's not just weather.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">timswinson.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://theconversation.com/hot-summer-yes-the-hottest-12505">hottest summer on record</a>. The hottest month on record. The hottest day ever recorded for the whole of Australia. Heatwaves, bushfires, record rainfall and floods – extreme events across the land. This was the angry summer.</p>
<p>The Climate Commission’s latest report, <a href="http://climatecommission.gov.au/report/the-angry-summer/">The Angry Summer</a>, assesses the events of this summer and the influence of climate change on them. </p>
<p>Australia is a land of “droughts and flooding rains”. Our history is defined by extreme events. Black Friday in 1939, Cyclone Tracy in 1974, Ash Wednesday in 1983, Black Saturday in 2009 and the terrible floods of the last few years – disasters are etched into the Australian psyche. The angry summer continues this history of extremes.</p>
<p>The angry summer is unusual for the record-breaking intensity and duration of the weather events. The season began with one of the driest periods on record from July to December. The <a href="http://theconversation.com/whats-causing-australias-heat-wave-11628">heatwave</a> in late December 2012 and the first weeks of January 2013 was unusually long and widespread. During this heat event more than 70% of Australia experienced extreme temperatures at some stage. The hot, dry weather contributed to dangerous <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/bushfires">bushfire conditions</a> in many parts of Australia.</p>
<p>Later in the summer, parts of Queensland and New South Wales experienced record-breaking heavy rainfall, with daily rainfall of more than 400 millimetres in many locations. This rainfall produced <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/queensland-floods-2013">severe flooding</a> along the coast of Queensland and northern New South Wales.</p>
<p>All weather is influenced by climate change. The climate system is warmer and moister than it was 50 years ago, and this influences the nature, impact and intensity of extreme weather events. All of the extreme weather events of the angry summer occurred in a climate system that has vastly more heat compared to 50 years ago. That means that they were all influenced to some extent by a climate that is fundamentally shifting.</p>
<p>The average temperature in Australia has risen by 0.9°C since 1910. The change in average temperature has greater impacts at the margins of the temperature scale. It is highly likely that extreme hot weather will become more frequent and severe in Australia over the coming decades. Australia’s angry summer shows that climate change is already adversely affecting Australians. </p>
<p>Looking towards the future, it is virtually certain that extreme hot weather will continue to become even more frequent and severe around the globe, including Australia, over the coming decades. It is also likely that the frequency of <a href="https://theconversation.com/increases-in-rainfall-extremes-linked-to-global-warming-11933">heavy rainfall</a> will increase over many areas of the globe.</p>
<p>In Australia and around the world we need to take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The preventative action we take now and in the coming years will greatly influence the extent of climate change in the future, and therefore the severity of extreme weather events that our children and grandchildren will have to cope with.</p>
<p>This is the critical decade to get on with the job.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12580/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will Steffen receives funding from: Australian Research Council (ARC) - Centre of Excellence on Climate System Science National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) - PI on a research project "South East Coastal Adaptation Project (SECA) He is affiliated with the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sweden, as a guest researcher
</span></em></p>The hottest summer on record. The hottest month on record. The hottest day ever recorded for the whole of Australia. Heatwaves, bushfires, record rainfall and floods – extreme events across the land. This…Will Steffen, Adjunct Professor, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/120562013-02-18T19:30:46Z2013-02-18T19:30:46ZHow ‘drought infrastructure’ can help us get through floods<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20030/original/j48c3bhc-1360212897.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South East Queensland's grid of water treatment plants are meant to drought proof the region, but could help in floods too.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Dave Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the last six years, there have been major investments made in “climate independent” water supplies and other measures to help “drought-proof” most of Australia’s capital cities. These have included a number of desalination and advanced water treatment/recycling plants, but also the construction of large water supply networks linking different water sources and users across a whole region.</p>
<p>One of the largest such systems has been constructed in South East Queensland, where the 250km-long water distribution “grid” now connects all major water treatment plants, including the Tugun desalination plant, with over 2 million users in the entire region from the Gold Coast to Noosa.</p>
<p>The main purpose of this major infrastructure has been to secure water supplies to our growing cities during severe droughts. But it is not well known that this has some very significant benefits in periods of flooding as well. This has been demonstrated in the major flood events in Brisbane and South East Queensland in <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/queensland-floods">January 2011</a> and recently over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/queensland-floods-2013">Australia Day weekend 2013</a>.</p>
<p>One of the major challenges during such major floods is obviously not the lack of water, but the quality of the water that is used for the drinking water treatment. Most of Australia’s water supplies are relying on surface water (generally dams catching run-off from more or less protected environments). Major rainfall, then, has a very rapid and often highly detrimental effect on the water quality in the rivers and creeks flowing into the dams and hence the dam water itself.</p>
<p>Further challenges are created when the water extraction points for the drinking water plants are not directly at the dam, but from rivers downstream of the dam. The direct inflows into these rivers are usually even more heavily loaded with sediments and other pollutants than the dam water itself.</p>
<p>This latter situation is exactly what created a potentially serious <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/newman-focused-on-bundaberg-flood/story-e6frfku9-1226563942451">water supply shortage</a> in Brisbane during the recent flood. The large amount of run-off from the Lockyer Valley, a major agriculture area west of Brisbane, was flowing into the Brisbane River downstream of Wivenhoe dam, but upstream of the region’s largest water treatment plant at Mt Crosby. The resulting “dirty water” event reached turbidity levels up to four times as high as during the January 2011 flood, therefore drastically reducing the drinking water production capacity for several days. This temporarily eliminated nearly 50% of the region’s water treatment capacity, and hence created the very real potential that parts of Brisbane would literally run out of water – in the middle of a flood!</p>
<p>In the end, a major supply crisis was avoided thanks to the infrastructure built as part of the drought response in 2007-2010. With water treatment plants still operating effectively both at the Gold Coast and north of Brisbane, the water distribution grid enabled the supply of significant amounts of treated water to Brisbane from the north and the south. The Tugun seawater desalination plant on the Gold Coast was also put into full production to add further supply.</p>
<p>Together with public calls for temporary water saving measures, the overall supply for Brisbane was successfully maintained at all times during and after this flood event.</p>
<p>Without the additional capacity through the desalination plant and the grid’s ability to source water where available across the region and supply it to the main demand areas, a significant fraction of Brisbane residents could have lost their water supply for a couple of days. This would have been a very serious additional difficulty on top of the widespread electricity cut-offs due to the severe storm that swept down the whole of Queensland.</p>
<p>However, there was also a major part of the drought-proofing infrastructure that could not be used in this situation at all, even though it had the capacity to make a major contribution with relatively minor (technical) changes.</p>
<p>South East Queensland’s three Advanced Water Treatment Plants (aka water recycling plants) have a combined water production capacity of 232ML/day. They use treated wastewater as their supply and generate very high quality water that can be pumped via a 140km pipeline to Wivenhoe dam. </p>
<p>There was certainly no shortage of supply during this period as all wastewater treatment plants received very high inflows due to the widespread rain. However, there was clearly no point in adding more water to an already full dam, and it would have not helped the water supply situation anyway as the dam release was limited to avoid adding further water to the already flooding Brisbane River.</p>
<p>So how could it have helped then in this situation? The key change would be to add the high quality water from the Advanced Water Treatment Plants directly into the water treatment plant, in this case at Mt Crosby, rather than the dam. This would not only allow the plant to generate up to 50% of its usual water production directly from the recycled water, but some of the “dirty” river water could have been taken in and treated with the dilution from the purified recycled water.</p>
<p>This would only require a relatively small engineering modification: the recycled water pipeline runs within 10km of the Mt Crosby plant. This change has significant advantages not just in flood situations, but also during drought. The pumping energy would be substantially less by not going to the dam, the high water quality could be maintained, and it would avoid losses through evaporation and infiltration from the dam.</p>
<p>A direct flood mitigation benefit could even be achieved with this modification as well. Given that the recycled water can supply a significant fraction of the typical production of the water treatment plant, this water does not need to be supplied from the dam. Therefore, to maintain the same level of supply security as currently, less dam capacity is needed for water supply purposes, hence leaving more available for flood mitigation storage. This would have a direct and significant impact on the ability to reduce or prevent future floods, with all of the associated major benefits for the region.</p>
<p>However, to achieve all of these outcomes we would need a shift in public views and particularly political will to consider this direct potable reuse option as a suitable strategy for improved water supply security. This shift may well be warranted if we want to gain the maximal benefits of the very capable, but also very expensive “new water” infrastructure.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12056/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jurg Keller receives funding from ARC, Australian Water Recycling Centre of Excellence, CRC for Water Sensitive Cities and a wide range of public and private organisations and companies as outlined in the AWMC webpage ( <a href="http://www.awmc.uq.edu.au">www.awmc.uq.edu.au</a> ). He is affiliated with several industry associations including Australian Water Association, International Water Association, Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering among others.</span></em></p>Over the last six years, there have been major investments made in “climate independent” water supplies and other measures to help “drought-proof” most of Australia’s capital cities. These have included…Jurg Keller, Director, Advanced Water Management Centre, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/120292013-02-07T00:43:12Z2013-02-07T00:43:12ZReplacing what we’ve lost may shortchange Queenslanders<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19997/original/kzjy5pwg-1360118613.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C13%2C962%2C643&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The government reacted swiftly last week to help Queensland flood victims, but the focus on "replacement" may have deleterious economic consequences for regional communities.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With predictions for more frequent and severe natural disasters in the future, it is imperative that we look further than the replacement of our physical infrastructure when rebuilding regional communities after disaster. </p>
<p>If we can’t avoid disasters affecting communities, we must make sure that our recovery policy looks for ways to make these communities even better than they were before.</p>
<p>The decisions made in the immediate wake of natural disasters are critical to reducing the long-term impact of the event both in terms of human impacts and damage to the economy. With the flooding of numerous towns in regional Queensland last week and the fires in Victoria and Tasmania, we saw just a glimpse of the complexity involved in coordinating multiple disaster relief efforts in multiple locations.</p>
<p>As discussed in <a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-queensland-moving-transport-in-a-flood-crisis-11849">Matthew Burke’s article in The Conversation</a> last week, the coordination of public transport is but one of many essential parts of community emergency management. The swiftness and precision of the government’s response to last week’s events demonstrates its ability to listen and act in disaster scenarios, and also the strength of its networks that permit such action.</p>
<p>In Australia, we do the preparation, the planning and the training for emergency response better than many other nations.</p>
<p>We also do short-term disaster recovery particularly well. The construction of a temporary school in Dunalley, Tasmania, just weeks after the fire razed the original school building is testament to this. Such an effort would not have been possible without the tireless work of volunteers and construction crews working around the clock to restore ‘normality’ to the affected community.</p>
<p>However, the rapid speed with which a town or city can be cleaned up and rebuilt presents important issues for the long-term future of disaster affected regional communities.</p>
<p>An approach to recovery that is “replacement” focused limits the scope for affected communities to redesign their local economies in new and exciting ways; it simply restores what already existed. Such approaches have enormous potential to create perverse outcomes and hinder the long term prospects for community sustainability and renewal.</p>
<p>Once we deal with the immediate crisis, disaster opens the possibility for positive long-term change for local businesses and communities. For many small communities the disaster relief investment will be the greatest influx of resources it has had in decades or longer. Innovative reconstruction and recovery initiatives are needed to realise the potential of these resources for communities.</p>
<p>Unlike the response, and physical and social recovery phases of disaster, Australian governments and communities appear to be not as well versed in coordinating and facilitating the economic recovery and renewal of affected communities. Anecdotal evidence exists to suggest that the approach to recovery used in response to recent disasters may overlook the region’s long-term economic goals and fail to provide the necessary foundations for economic renewal.</p>
<p>However, we need stronger evidence on this issue. We need to learn from the disaster-affected communities who are now two or more years down the road of recovery.</p>
<p>The Regional Australia Institute is investigating the current process of recovery, the approaches used by governments, regional leaders and communities and its outcomes in four of these communities - two in regional Queensland (Emerald and Cardwell) and two in regional Victoria (Carisbrook and Marysville).</p>
<p>This issue is not so much about theory and policy principles. We must understand the practicalities of long term recovery so we can fill the policy knowledge gaps. This will allow us to ask whether our recovery processes and some of the restrictions around the use of recovery funds are helping or hindering the long term recovery and renewal of communities.</p>
<p>We also need to understand how communities themselves can drive the process of renewal.</p>
<p>The findings of the study will inform debate as to whether policy change is needed to better facilitate long term economic recovery of regional communities.</p>
<p>That way we can be more confident that affected communities will have the scope and support to recover and renew after disaster strikes.</p>
<p><em>Co-author Jessie Davies is a Research Assistant at the Regional Australia Institute and recently graduated with BA/BSc from the Australian National University.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12029/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Regional Australia Institute (RAI) is an independent policy think tank and research organisation for regional Australia. It was established in 2011 with the support of the Australian Government. RAI is governed by Board of eminent Australians including distinguished academics Professor Sandra Harding (Vice-Chancellor of James Cook University) and Professor Ngiare Brown (University of Sydney). All of our research is overseen by a Research Advisory Committee comprised of leading national and international academics with expertise in regional development.</span></em></p>With predictions for more frequent and severe natural disasters in the future, it is imperative that we look further than the replacement of our physical infrastructure when rebuilding regional communities…Jack Archer, General Manager - Research and Policy, Regional Australia InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/119352013-02-06T00:00:13Z2013-02-06T00:00:13ZQueenslanders at risk from mould as flood clean-up continues<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19961/original/5dfffdyn-1360038990.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Damp conditions are linked to respiratory problems, but mould may not be the cause.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Kym Agius</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The floods have come and gone in Queensland and in their wake are heartbreak, devastation and months, if not years, of clean-up and rebuilding. Those affected now face a hidden risk to their health from water-damaged, damp and mouldy buildings. </p>
<p>There is a large body of scientific evidence that supports an association between various health problems and damp, mouldy environments. This evidence was examined and summarised in a <a href="http://www.iom.edu/Reports/2004/Damp-Indoor-Spaces-and-Health.aspx">2004 Institute of Medicine report</a> and a <a href="http://www.euro.who.int/en/what-we-do/health-topics/environment-and-health/air-quality/publications/2009/who-guidelines-for-indoor-air-quality-dampness-and-mould.-executive-summary/who-guidelines-for-indoor-air-quality-dampness-and-mould">2009 World Health Organisation report</a>. The message is clear: damp home environments are associated with respiratory problems including asthma, coughs, respiratory infections and upper airway problems.</p>
<p>But the cause-and-effect proof for this association is lacking. In other words, while damp living environments is associated with increased risk of a number of respiratory symptoms, the reason the risk increases is unknown. It’s tempting to conclude that mould is the cause, as mould grows in damp conditions and, in many cases, visible mould is reported in damp housing.</p>
<h2>Mould exposure and health risks</h2>
<p>Moulds are complex organisms that are difficult to quantify reliably. Mould is associated with two broad categories of human illness: infectious diseases and non-infectious illness, usually allergy-related conditions.</p>
<p>Invasive (infection-causing) illness caused by mould is uncommon and usually occurs in people whose immune systems are compromised. There was no measurable increase in invasive mould infection reported in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, perhaps the best studied model for post-flood health effects.</p>
<p>Allergic sensitivity to various moulds, detected by skin and blood tests, is associated with exacerbation of asthma. There’s <a href="http://www.iom.edu/Reports/2004/Damp-Indoor-Spaces-and-Health.aspx">evidence linking</a> asthma exacerbation in sensitised individuals to damp indoor environments, but not enough evidence to suggest that such environments <em>cause</em> asthma.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0001168/">Hypersensitivity pneumonitis</a>, or inflammation of the lung, is another immune-mediated condition <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17605960">caused by mould exposure</a>.</p>
<p>There are non-immune effects of mould exposure and these are mostly irritant in nature. Exposure to <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10510522">high levels of (1-3)B-D-glucan</a>, a chemical found in mould cell walls, has been linked to chronic cough, throat irritation and irritation of upper respiratory tract.</p>
<h2>Damage from damp</h2>
<p>Along with mould, numerous bacteria and amoeba species may flourish in damp housing, and there may be synergistic effects between them and other toxins, an area open to further research.</p>
<p>Damp buildings often have raised levels of <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/nas/rdrp/appendices/chapter4/a4-39.pdf">endotoxins</a> (toxins within bacteria). Endotoxin <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091674902085688">has been associated</a> with animal exposure and farm environments, and may protect against the development of allergic conditions. But in association with other dampness-related factors, it may have negative effects.</p>
<p>There are also other potentially harmful factors to consider. Flooding and dampness may damage building materials and furnishings, causing them to release toxic chemicals such as formaldehyde from composite wood products and plasticizers (2-ethyl-1-hexanol) from vinyl flooring.</p>
<p>As you can see, there are many factors to consider when attempting to establish causal relationships between dampness and respiratory illness. This explains why proof of cause and effect has been difficult to obtain.</p>
<h2>Lessons from Hurricane Katrina</h2>
<p>The devastation of New Orleans caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita left communities homeless and entire suburbs destroyed. The clean-up was massive, taking many people months and years and exposing them to damp, mouldy environments. Many of those involved in restoration developed a chronic cough, which was dubbed the “<a href="http://new.dhh.louisiana.gov/assets/oph/Center-PHCH/Center-CH/stepi/specialstudies/KatrinaCoughReport.pdf">Katrina cough</a>” and became widespread after the hurricanes. It was attributed to irritant phenomena.</p>
<p>A number of scientific studies monitored and measured the health effects of long-term exposure to damp, mouldy environments. Monitoring demonstrated high mould and spore levels in the wake of Katrina, but the clinical studies performed at the time did not show the anticipated impact on health.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://new.dhh.louisiana.gov/assets/oph/Center-PHCH/Center-CH/stepi/specialstudies/KatrinaCoughReport.pdf">2006 study</a> looking at 50,000 visits to emergency departments and medical clinics measured presentations for cough, wheeze, sinus drip, sore throat and chest congestion and found no increase in respiratory presentations compared to other parts of the country. But those with a history of asthma were more likely to experience symptoms because of mould and dust exposure.</p>
<p>Problems with sampling, bias in reporting and use of qualitative assessment have been cited as possible reasons for a lack of association in these studies.</p>
<h2>Challenges ahead</h2>
<p>Chronic allergic and non-allergic respiratory diseases are global problems that extract enormous human, economic and social costs. It’s estimated that <a href="http://www.iom.edu/Reports/2004/Damp-Indoor-Spaces-and-Health.aspx">20% to 50% of all building stock</a> in the United States and Europe have problems with damp. If the two are linked, then removing pollutants from housing and better planning and building codes must become a priority. The challenge to the scientific community is to clarify the components of dampness that are key, how to measure them and how to effect change.</p>
<p>As Queensland cleans up from the floods, it’s important that asthmatics wear good-quality face masks while handling mouldy things. If someone is immunosuppressed (for example, receiving chemotherapy for cancer), it’s best for them to stay out of the environment or wear proper respiratory protection.</p>
<p>Where possible, infants and young children shouldn’t be continuously exposed to mouldy environments. Most important for those in flood-affected areas is cleaning up and restoring a dry living environment as quickly as possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11935/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Connie Katelaris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The floods have come and gone in Queensland and in their wake are heartbreak, devastation and months, if not years, of clean-up and rebuilding. Those affected now face a hidden risk to their health from…Connie Katelaris, Professor of Immunology and Allergy, UWAS & Head of Unit, South Western Sydney Local Health DistrictLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/119542013-02-05T19:51:00Z2013-02-05T19:51:00ZClean-up or adaptation? ‘Disaster-proofing’ Queensland<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19954/original/xzjp9vsv-1360029207.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Adapting to future disasters is complicated and expensive, but might be more cost-effective than endless clean-ups.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Paul Beutel</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Following several years of devastation in Queensland, the state’s premier believes it’s time to “flood and disaster proof” as many towns and communities as possible. In <a href="http://m.couriermail.com.au/news/premier-campbell-newman-aims-to-flood-proof-towns-in-wake-of-queensland-floods-crisis/story-e6freon6-1226566280869">Mr Newman’s</a> words: “We can’t accept that’s how life has to be lived.” But climate change throws us into a world where the unacceptable may become unavoidable. So where do you start?</p>
<p>Research at the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (<a href="http://www.nccarf.edu.au">NCCARF</a>) is considering how to reduce the negative impacts of climate. In research parlance, this is known as <em>adaptation</em>. We have looked at past natural hazards and their disastrous outcomes to consider lessons for future adaptation.</p>
<h2>A holistic and pragmatic approach</h2>
<p>History does repeat. Even where there are adaptations to reduce disaster impacts, subsequent disasters can bring new challenges. Charleville, for example, is protected from river floods by a levee but in 2008 flash flooding from the town’s gully was not prevented by the levee.</p>
<p>Adaptation planning must consider all risks. There is no point taking an action to reduce the impact of one disaster type, if it exposes a community to worsened impacts of another. How does a house built to withstand high wind speeds behave in a heatwave or a fire, for example? So reducing disaster impacts (adaptation) is a complex decision-making process.</p>
<p>It may also call for several solutions – plus ongoing review and tweaking as new knowledge arises or circumstances change. Consider the Mississippi River in the US. Ongoing floodplain development has meant regular disastrous flood events. Each time these are responded to with higher and more levees, which are then over-topped or breached in the next floods. </p>
<p>With repeated disasters, significant investment and on-going financial loss, new approaches may be needed and some communities and governments may eventually have to face the reality that the risk is too high and relocation may be the only viable option.</p>
<p>Adaptations after disasters may include social change (such as preparation, planning and information) and hard solutions (such as infrastructure change, sea walls). Much of Australia’s current disaster management philosophy has a strong emphasis on building resilience long before a natural hazard occurs. We like to ensure communities are aware of risks and prepared to respond (see, for example, bushfire plans).</p>
<h2>Cost-benefit-risk</h2>
<p>Adaptation is costly, but the long-term costs of failing to adapt (such as on-going flood damage) may out-weigh these costs and vice versa. The Netherlands invested €9 billion in building flood defences to avoid a 1-in-10,000-year event following the deadly 1956 storm-surge. They are presently exploring far-future sea-level rise (up to 5m) at a cost of over €80 billion. </p>
<p>The government took a pragmatic approach to building a business case for adaptation investment. What price to prevent a repeat tragedy? For any government contemplating adapting to natural disasters there should always be an exercise in comparing acceptable risk and cost.</p>
<p>For Queensland, the cost of the flood disasters to government coffers since 2011 is in the order of $15 billion. If we are unwilling to face the same risk again, what will adaptation cost and how does it compare to the damage bill? </p>
<p>Consider a proposed flood levee for Roma costed at $20 million. Compared to an estimated $10 million spent on helicopter rescues alone during the 2011 floods - the argument to invest seems compelling. But the initial capital outlay in a time of fiscal restraint and conservancy will take an incredible amount of political (and public) will for an unquantifiable future risk. The acceptable risk threshold will have to be balanced against the willingness to bear costs.</p>
<p>If adaptation planning happens now, then disasters can be an opportunity to implement them. The Queensland Reconstruction Authority, overseeing the 2011 floods and cyclone recovery, undertook to “build back better”. Reconstruction was to current engineering standards as a minimum (which in some cases improved structural resilience), and where it “made sense” improvement of the rebuilt structure. There is considerable room to expand this policy.</p>
<h2>Success and pitfalls</h2>
<p>Adaptation following a disaster can be highly successful. After Cyclone Tracy, a methodical effort ensured houses are now designed to withstand the worst events rather than day-to-day weather. Houses built to these standards have proved much safer during recent cyclones.</p>
<p>“Disaster-proofing” means anticipating the worst possible scenario. Even without figuring in climate change, how do we ever know that we have experienced the worst record-breaking disaster? If a community believes its defences will hold – what catastrophe could be unleashed if they fail? This false sense of security could be called “perverse resilience”. Despite the level of investment, the Netherlands are now diversifying from pure-engineering solutions in the realisation that a lot was riding on engineering defences withstanding the worst. If a government gets it wrong, the liability could be phenomenal.</p>
<p>Queensland has already invested in an <a href="http://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/climatechange/adaptation.html">adaptation strategy</a>, and adaptation research, including with NCCARF. The critical step now is to ensure the momentum of the disaster response translates into long-term planning and investment - but perhaps towards a resilient, well-adapted Queensland rather than a “disaster-proofed” one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Boulter is employed by NCCARF who receive funding from the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, the Queensland State Government, Griffith University, James Cook University, Macquarie University, Murdoch University, Queensland University of Technology, The University of Newcastle, University of Southern Queensland and University of the Sunshine Coast.</span></em></p>Following several years of devastation in Queensland, the state’s premier believes it’s time to “flood and disaster proof” as many towns and communities as possible. In Mr Newman’s words: “We can’t accept…Sarah Boulter, Research Fellow, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/118502013-01-31T03:29:52Z2013-01-31T03:29:52ZIt’s time to talk about disaster recovery<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19719/original/j4x9n4rh-1359585736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia's disaster management policies are in need of reform. But is a permanent disaster fund the right way to go about it?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Disasters are a fact of life. We need to talk about them.</p>
<p>Floods, fires, <a href="http://www.ga.gov.au/hazards/earthquakes/earthquake-basics/historic.html">earthquakes</a> and other misadventures will happen in spite of our best plans. Their impact will sometimes be severe simply because we chose to locate our factories, offices, schools and homes in disaster-prone locations. A bush setting means that your home in the hills is a probable casualty in a bushfire. Building on landfill in <a href="http://www.ga.gov.au/image_cache/GA10000.pdf">Newcastle</a> (or in <a href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10847023">Wellington</a> and San Francisco) means greater risk when the earthquake inevitably arrives. Living close to the city in Brisbane and other riverside locations involves exposure to <a href="http://www.ga.gov.au/hazards/governance/national-committees-hazards/national-flood-risk-advisory-group.html">flooding</a>. </p>
<p>Some risks will get worse with global warming. Others won’t. If we choose not to mitigate injury through investment in resilient infrastructure and a hard-headed approach to zoning, we need to think about <a href="http://theconversation.com/australia-can-do-better-on-managing-disasters-10284">disaster recovery</a>.</p>
<p>The Greens this week have <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/greens-call-for-permanent-disaster-fund-20130129-2dhw6.html">mooted</a> the idea of a national disaster fund, a permanent pool of money to assist recovery. The fund would replace one-off national and state government disaster levies. It would apparently assist householders and local government to get back on their feet. The proposal is vague: politicians are less likely to be criticised if they talk in generalities and don’t offer specifics that can be costed or questioned. Overall, however, the idea of a special fund is one that should be (and in the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-01-30/gillard-dismisses-calls-for-permanent-disaster-fund/1923084">past</a> sensibly has been) resisted. </p>
<p>One reason is that a giant pool of money – the fund is going to have to be big in order to be meaningful – will be an almost irresistible temptation for politicians. Those decision-makers, and the bureaucrats with a stake in distributing disaster funding, are unlikely to let money just sit there. They’ll want to spend it.</p>
<p>In order to be taken seriously, the fund’s proponents need to provide an indication of how the money would be quarantined. Would it be invested in the market, as with the <a href="http://www.futurefund.gov.au/">Future Fund</a>? Invested on an “ethical” and suitably green basis? (No shares in coal or other industries that exacerbate climate change and thus get blamed for floods or other tribulations?) Managed by an independent board reporting direct to Parliament, and with the sort of transparency we see in management of Norway’s <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/pol070908a.htm">sovereign wealth</a> fund? Or just parked in a special Treasury account, controlled by poll-watching majority and minority governments?</p>
<p>How would money be disbursed? Would the government of the day use the fund as a disaster ATM, being wary about accumulation and keen to satisfy the voters by spending on every disaster … or just disasters that are politically strategic? Would money simply be handed to the states in a block, or dribbled out through the existing grant system? Would disbursement be restricted to mopping up or include measures to sustain small business in the years after the disaster, when the TV crews have gone away but the bills just keep coming in?</p>
<p>Another reason for wariness is that purpose-specific funds are problematic. Will we see Ministers saying “Sorry, you’ve had your quota of money for the year?” Fights over supplementary funding or topping-up of the fund? Questions about <a href="http://www.oecd.org/gov/budgeting/42407562.pdf">moral hazard</a>?</p>
<p><a href="http://www.disasterassist.gov.au/FactSheets/Pages/TheNaturalDisasterReliefandRecoveryArrangementsNDRRA.aspx">Disaster relief</a> is only one “good cause”. Are we going to have a discrete fund for “fixing” Indigenous education, one for <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-4b-dental-care-program-will-tackle-inequity-but-funding-still-in-question-6808">dental health</a>, one for regional arts, one for funding class litigation over breast and hip implants (manmade disasters that have a greater impact on lives than sodden carpet or charred DVDs, and are partly attributable to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/tga-all-bark-no-bite-as-labor-botches-response-to-a-series-of-reviews-4640">TGA’s failure</a>)? </p>
<p>Would the fund be restricted to post-disaster Band-aids? Would it instead include disaster mitigation through measures such as buyouts and closure of inefficient coal-fired power stations? Spending on mass afforestation as <a href="http://www.daff.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/1894601/Chris_Mitchell_-_Domestic_Forestry.pdf">carbon sinks</a>? Funding to buy out householders from flood-prone areas, so that when the next flood arrives there are fewer houses and businesses to be damaged? Funding mundane planning measures that are more effective than election-year media opportunities such as the christening of dams and bushfire tankers?</p>
<p>One of the luxuries of being a protest party is that you don’t need to provide detailed coherent proposals, and - sadly - often don’t have the capacity to do so. Rather than simply advocating a special fund, it would be good to see a proposal for a serious multi-year review of Australia’s <a href="http://www.em.gov.au/Documents/1National%20Strategy%20for%20Disaster%20Resilience%20-%20pdf.PDF">disaster resilience</a>, including scope for streamlining access to financial support and encouragement of mitigation rather than relief. </p>
<p>The proposed fund is interesting, but it answers the wrong question. Given that disasters recur, irrespective of global warming, we need to think about minimisation and make some hard choices. Those choices should not be determined by the insurance industry, which is starting to dissuade people from locating themselves in areas of climate vulnerability. </p>
<p>The time for national discussion about disasters has arrived. Don’t put it off till the next rainy day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11850/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ryan Roberts does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Baer Arnold does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Disasters are a fact of life. We need to talk about them. Floods, fires, earthquakes and other misadventures will happen in spite of our best plans. Their impact will sometimes be severe simply because…Bruce Baer Arnold, Assistant Professor, School of Law, University of CanberraR. Roberts, Law Student, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/118842013-01-31T00:09:06Z2013-01-31T00:09:06ZWhy move back? Floods and the difficulty of relocation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19720/original/5m7pfwjq-1359586138.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many people flooded out in 2011 went back and suffered the same fate in 2013.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/queensland-floods-2013">2013 floods</a> show a striking resemblance to the weather system that generated <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/queensland-floods">the 2011 floods</a>. A small cyclone in North Queensland (Tasha in 2010, Oswald in 2013) moved down the east coast bringing extensive rainfall. The difference is this year the rainfall was preceded by extremely dry conditions. There was greater capacity for the rain to soak into the ground, while for the most part rivers had not begun to flow. </p>
<p>But for households in the path of the latest floods it was, “here we go again”.</p>
<p>Following the 2011 floods there was a great deal of emphasis on the role of planners. The <a href="http://www.floodcommission.qld.gov.au/publications/final-report">second volume</a> of the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry was dominated by the planning process and the responsibilities of planners and local governments for the vulnerability of communities that were inundated. The inquiry didn’t apportion blame, but it did make many recommendations to improve land-use planning. </p>
<p>Before urban development can be constrained to avoid flood risk, an expensive exercise in floodplain mapping needs to take place. The Queensland Reconstruction Authority played an important role in establishing the basis for this. </p>
<p>But in the meantime, places that were vulnerable to the 2011 floods remained vulnerable this year. Future changes in land use will only slowly alter flood vulnerability.</p>
<p>Coastal and floodplain policy have seen introduced the idea of three strategies: retreat, accommodate or protect. </p>
<p>The “protect” part involves building things like levees, rock walls and drainage channels. Unfortunately levees will only work in the short to medium term and are expensive to construct and maintain. </p>
<p>“Accommodate” strategies take in the mitigation, hazard preparedness and community awareness that get ordinary households, councils and emergency services better prepared for the next hazard event. This group of strategies include warnings, awareness campaigns, community education, preparing evacuation centres, emergency and evacuation plans and kits, maintenance and retrofitting of houses and property and the building and encouragement of community resilience.</p>
<p>“Retreat” strategies place responsibility on to planners, councils and state government, as well as individual households. In the face of regular flooding and inundation some locations are simply going to be unsustainable. This will become even worse as climate change brings about sea level rise which will extend up tidal estuaries into city centres, and bring an increase in severe storms and floods. </p>
<p>Retreat will involve decommissioning and abandoning extremely vulnerable locations. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/moving-grantham-relocating-flood-prone-towns-is-nothing-new-4878">Grantham relocation scheme</a> is one such example of a community moving away from the floodplain onto adjacent elevated land. Such schemes are going to be expensive because they will require councils or governments to buy back land and property from residents. To date, buyback schemes have not been either popular or particularly successful, but in the long term we are likely to see more of these types of relocation.</p>
<p>In anticipation of these processes of worsening floods and inundation, researchers from James Cook University, Macquarie University and the University of Southern Queensland carried out a number of post-flood studies over the last couple of years. </p>
<p>We looked at the experiences of households in Charleville and Mackay after the 2008 floods, and Emerald, six flood-affected suburbs in Brisbane and Donald in Victoria following the 2011 floods, as well as communities in North Queensland following Cyclone Yasi and floods. </p>
<p>In all of these surveys we asked people whether they might consider relocating either elsewhere in the town or to a completely different town or city if they endured further floods in the future. For small places like Charleville or Donald there is not much option of finding a less flood-vulnerable location within the town. In Donald only 8% of households thought that they would move in the coming years, but in Brisbane 21% considered they might move and in Emerald 24% considered it likely. In Charleville and Macquarie we asked the question of businesses as well at households.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=136&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=136&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=136&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Ingham and Innisfail in North Queensland we asked a similar question following floods in Ingham and Cyclone Larry at Innisfail. Ingham is very regularly flooded, so that it is part of the experience of living in the town. Still, around 10% of the population is considering leaving the place. In Innisfail, which recorded a net decline in population after cyclones Larry and Yasi, between 20 and 30% of the population is considering relocation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=136&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=136&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=136&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19717/original/zd2svp9d-1359583059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Then at Mission Beach after cyclone Yasi we asked residents “In the near future are you likely to relocate in order to decrease or negate you or your family’s vulnerability to coastal hazards like storm surge?” This represents a direct retreat strategy: 19% of the households responded yes, they would be likely to relocate.</p>
<p>In all of these surveys the majority of the population clearly stated that they were not likely to move. This is what we expect and it’s a measure of the resilience of the communities. However, the proportions of households who expressed a serious consideration of leaving the community in the face of future disasters represents a significant impact upon the economy and long-term sustainability of their towns. It also represents a willingness to participate in retreat and relocation strategies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11884/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David King receives funding from National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Griffith University which funded all of the identified research projects.</span></em></p>The 2013 floods show a striking resemblance to the weather system that generated the 2011 floods. A small cyclone in North Queensland (Tasha in 2010, Oswald in 2013) moved down the east coast bringing…David King, Director, Centre for Tropical Urban and Regional Planning, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/118492013-01-30T02:38:10Z2013-01-30T02:38:10ZKeeping Queensland moving: transport in a flood crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19689/original/dchd6dfm-1359495239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia's transport planners are better than most at dealing with disasters.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Supplied by SES, Samantha Cantwell</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Transport access is essential for people to get to the goods and services they need in daily life. Never is that basic access more appreciated, and more desired, than when it’s taken away from us, such as in a major flood. People do terribly dangerous things when they need to get from one place to another: crossing swollen creeks cost at least two Queenslanders their lives this week. </p>
<p>Movement is essential to both evacuation and to restoring life as normal. The managers of our transport systems have enormous headaches trying to keep people and goods moving in a crisis, shifting people out of danger areas and then getting cities working again soon after. </p>
<p>Public transport is an essential part of community emergency management. There is much that the public never sees that suggests Australian authorities cope relatively well with this challenge. We do the preparation, the planning and the training for emergency response better than many other nations. And that means when we have to respond and then help with recovery, our public transport managers usually cope well. </p>
<p>Brisbane’s 2011 floods were incredibly destructive, causing over $4 billion damage to Queensland’s main roads network. But not one public transport vehicle was lost to the floodwaters, as the ferries were shepherded to safety in Moreton Bay, the buses were moved to higher ground, and the rail system similarly secured. The ferries lost most of their pontoons and were out of action for a modest period. The bikeways were famously smashed. Yet the bus and rail systems swung back into operation remarkably quickly, especially the buses, once the floodwaters receded. </p>
<p>This week the floods hit Brisbane’s systems <a href="http://media.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/selections/brisbane-floods-heartbreaking-3988616.html">hard again</a>. The electric rail system lost electricity as a quarter of the city had no power. There were landslides across the rails, fallen trees and smashed signals. </p>
<p>But what could be opened almost immediately was, with the few spare buses available in the city brought in to supplement lost capacity. Only a single shuttle train could run through the heart of the central business district, with other trains <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/storms-knock-out-half-of-brisbanes-train-lines-20130128-2dgzk.html">sent on a bypass loop</a>. Buses also replaced links to key ferry stops. Lots of people had to walk long distances to get to work as they couldn’t get to Central station. But as the Mayor noted, the central business district was “open for business” on Tuesday, the day after the event. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19685/original/dzfhd8gh-1359450105.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19685/original/dzfhd8gh-1359450105.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19685/original/dzfhd8gh-1359450105.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19685/original/dzfhd8gh-1359450105.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19685/original/dzfhd8gh-1359450105.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19685/original/dzfhd8gh-1359450105.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19685/original/dzfhd8gh-1359450105.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Floods shut down Brisbane’s public transport, but it was running again in no time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Dan Peled</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s hard to fault the effort in South East Queensland so far this week. Evacuation messages were timely, targeted and, as the <a href="http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29NH.1527-6996.0000070">research suggests is demanded</a>, delivered by figures of respect and trust. People with no need to travel were urged to stay at home. </p>
<p>It requires enormous skill and effective response mechanisms by public transport managers to achieve what they do. Australia has well-developed organisation and communication systems, ensuring rapid redeployment of public transport services. </p>
<p>Information provided to the public via radio, the internet and - noticeably in this current Brisbane event - various social media platforms, all helps ensure the population is kept up-to-date on what services are available, and what are not. The value of a centralised public transport authority, such as South East Queensland’s Translink, becomes clear in a crises like these, as all public transport operators already work for and under one agency. South East Queensland can be thankful it is ahead of Sydney and other cities in this regard.</p>
<p>Despite widespread road closures and hundreds of traffic signals out at key intersections across the South East, buses were up and running almost to timetable the next day, (except for where they couldn’t get through). This relies on drivers standing by their posts (drivers elsewhere in the world often fail to show up during a crisis!). It’s difficult work for these unsung heroes: precariously leaning street trees and other debris present hazards smaller vehicles may avoid. </p>
<p>But it’s outside of the cities where accessibility problems really bite. Floods are the primary reason bridges are destroyed in Australia. And roads are regularly cut by floodwaters where investment hasn’t been made in raising them above flood heights. As per usual, Northern Queensland finds itself cut off from the rest of the country due to the poor state of the Bruce Highway, with produce rotting on trucks as they wait to get through. </p>
<p>Where can we do things better? Mitigation by levees and dams, and ensuring structures such as bridges and key highways are resilient, is the obvious best spend. Key highways require investment as part of planning infrastructure for flooding landscapes. </p>
<p>City tunnels are particularly vulnerable; especially rail tunnels, where lighting, electrical and communications systems are destroyed by floodwaters. An important change was made to the design of Brisbane’s Cross River Rail project after the 2011 event submerged part of the proposed southern entry point. This change was made in part to ensure the tunnel can better avoid flooding. This should reduce the <a href="http://webarchive.iiasa.ac.at/Research/RMS/dpri2002/Papers/Compton.pdf">risks of catastrophes</a> such as <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-sandy-photos-of-new-york-subway-flooded-2012-10">New York’s subway floods</a> of 2012, the Prague Metro <a href="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=334069">flood in 2002</a> or Boston’s subway <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrOAf6RwkpI">flood of 1996</a>. </p>
<p>Evacuation planning is also a wise investment as part of disaster preparedness. The best practice is <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692312000105">regular modelling of catastrophic events</a> to prepare and improve emergency plans. What would happen if a Category 1 cyclone hit the Gold Coast? How could the city be evacuated were many of its key road links rapidly put underwater? And where to? How would evacuation routes and preferred behaviours be communicated to the population, including the large number of tourists? </p>
<p>So if you’re cursing a late train or bus in Queensland this week, think of the problems that are vexing your transport planners. If extreme weather events get worse, as predicted, their job will only grow. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11849/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Burke receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Queensland Health, Moreland City Council, Moreland Community Health, Logan City Council, Springfield Land Corporation and Lend Lease Communities. He is a member of the National Heart Foundation's National Physical Activity Committee.</span></em></p>Transport access is essential for people to get to the goods and services they need in daily life. Never is that basic access more appreciated, and more desired, than when it’s taken away from us, such…Matthew Burke, Senior Research Fellow, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/118322013-01-29T23:56:53Z2013-01-29T23:56:53ZPlanning for floods and fires now the recipe for disaster has changed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19692/original/bfpcz8bk-1359502621.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If we are plucking people from their roofs, we're not communicating about disasters properly.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/AGL Action Rescue Helicopter</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The floods in Queensland and Northern New South Wales and the extensive January bushfires which caused destruction across Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales confirm that we need to rethink how we plan for, and respond to, natural disasters. </p>
<p>Many believed the 2010-11 floods and cyclones in Queensland were an aberration. The term, a “one in 100 year event” provides people (including those responsible for disaster management) with a false sense of security.</p>
<p>How can a one in 100 year event occur twice in two years?</p>
<p>Changing the terminology to a “100 to one chance” of occurring every year does not clarify the risk for the person whose house or business is flooded so soon after they have rebuilt. It also ignores the fact that serious weather events are occurring more frequently, with greater severity each time.</p>
<h2>Communicating risk</h2>
<p>According to the <a href="http://www.emdat.be/natural-disasters-trends">United Nations Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters</a>, the frequency of climate related disasters such as tropical cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes has increased tenfold since records began in 1950. Climate change will continue to make weather patterns less predictable and more extreme. We need to reframe our language.</p>
<p>In recent times there have been major improvements in the quality of warnings from the Bureau of Meteorology and SMS based systems such as <a href="http://www.emergencyalert.gov.au/">Emergency Alert</a>. But in every event, there are those who ignore the advice. Risk communication and the information given by political leaders and experts needs to change to reduce the complacency, and in some cases cynicism, in the community. </p>
<p>We must find a way to make people take seriously the calls to evacuate before it becomes too dangerous to do so. The images of citizens in North Bundaberg being plucked from their rooftops by helicopters, only hours after authorities had told residents to leave, or of vehicles trapped in flood waters despite the much repeated public message of “if it’s flooded, forget it”, should cause all of us to rethink this messaging. </p>
<p>This anti-social behaviour not only puts emergency services heroes, many of whom are volunteers, at great personal risk but also diverts resources from other critical response activities. Public messages about the dangers are just not getting through. Perhaps it is time for a community debate about stronger deterrents such as legal sanctions.</p>
<h2>Planning for the new normal</h2>
<p>In terms of disaster planning and preparation, the traditional orthodoxy is no longer enough. </p>
<p>This century we have seen hurricanes Sandy and Katrina devastate North America, earthquakes and tsunamis wreak havoc in Japan, Aceh, Sumatra, Samoa and Christchurch, and the Gulf of Mexico choked by a massive oil spill. At home, we have been battered by fires and floods, followed by more fires and more floods. These experiences have shown that our planning assumptions have been too narrow.</p>
<p>We must be capable of responding to unpredicted or unpredictable events. Relationships are critical to successful planning, response and recovery. They need to be developed during “peace time” so that roles and responsibilities of all agencies are clear when disaster strikes. Training must not only focus on particular skills but also on the roles and relationships of those involved in the development of an agile, flexible, scalable, and sustainable disaster management system.</p>
<p>The serious gap in disaster management policy in Australia is the need for integrated policy and funding focused on building resilience.</p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13457">US National Academy of Sciences</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Resilience is the ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from and more successfully adapt to adverse events. Enhanced resilience allows better anticipation of disasters and better planning to reduce disaster losses — rather than waiting for an event to occur and paying for it afterwards.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This requires a much greater injection of resources into both mitigation and adaptation to reduce the personal, economic and environmental costs of natural disasters.</p>
<h2>Mitigation and adaptation</h2>
<p>Greater investment in infrastructure, such as levees, sea walls, dams; and construction initiatives such as fire resistant materials, raised housing and earthquake tolerant foundations can reduce the impact of disasters. </p>
<p>Community awareness and information can be enhanced through initiatives to improve weather and hazard forecasting, hazard mapping, warning systems and evacuation procedures.</p>
<p>Regulatory reforms such as the requirement for local, district, state and national disaster plans, land use planning and zoning requirements and disclosure requirements such as flood or fire vulnerability at point of land, house or business sales are also a part mitigation and adaptation initiatives, many of which are relatively low cost.</p>
<p>Community expectations of what the government must do for them in the wake of natural disasters are increasing. That is how it should be. </p>
<p>But building resilience requires a shared responsibility between individuals, local communities and governments. Improving how we talk to people and broadening our planning assumptions are good places to start.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim McGowan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The floods in Queensland and Northern New South Wales and the extensive January bushfires which caused destruction across Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales confirm that we need to rethink how we plan…Jim McGowan, Adjunct Professor, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/118352013-01-29T22:46:24Z2013-01-29T22:46:24ZQueensland floods: motivation to get flood planning right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19690/original/2q94y3kh-1359495469.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How prepared can we be for record floods?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Dan Peled</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Parts of Queensland and New South Wales have big floods again with people being evacuated, properties flooded and tragically some fatalities. We have heard reports of hundreds of millimetres of rainfall in single days from places like Gladstone and Bundaberg. So are these floods unprecedented or should we expect floods of this size and be able to deal with them?</p>
<p>This is a complicated question. In some places a lot of rain has fallen, even by Queensland standards. In others there really hasn’t been that much.</p>
<p>At Gladstone the 1-in-100-year three-day rainfall event is 720mm and the total observed for the three days up to 9am on January 27 was 660mm, with 820mm over four days. While a more thorough analysis is required to say definitively whether Gladstone exceeded its 1-in-100-year rainfall total, parts of the Burnett River catchment definitely did and the very heavy rain was widespread over the catchment. </p>
<p>The result has been a record flood at Bundaberg, which has very long records that start in the 1860s. The previous record flood of just over 9m occurred in 1875. So yes, the Bundaberg flood - at around 9.5m - is big and the challenges in responding to it are not surprising given its size. </p>
<p>The concerns about Brisbane flooding appear not to have been realised, with few buildings with water above floor level. While heavy rain did fall in some parts of the catchment, it was not widespread across the catchment and it also tended to fall more in the north, where Wivenhoe Dam provides significant flood protection. Nevertheless there are reports of some waterfront properties being flooded.</p>
<p>The summer had been very dry in southern Queensland up until last week and it is possible that this reduced the flood flows somewhat. At the same time it probably means the catchments were vulnerable to erosion due to low vegetation cover. This has caused problems for Brisbane’s water supply and is likely to have resulted in significant amounts of sediment and associated nutrients entering coastal waters.</p>
<p>The last major flood in Bundaberg was 7.92m in 2010, which flooded hundreds of homes and businesses. There have been seven similar or bigger floods in the last 130 years. Better planning in the past could have avoided the associated flood damage costs. Now there is a legacy problem that needs to be dealt with - communities and businesses already exist in areas that will be flooded again and again.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.floodcommission.qld.gov.au/publications/final-report">Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry</a> made 177 recommendations, more than half of which relate to flood risk assessment, planning and/or information provision. If they are implemented people will be much better informed about their flood risk. </p>
<p>To this end the Queensland Reconstruction Commission has developed an interactive “<a href="http://www.qldreconstruction.org.au/flood-check-map">flood check</a>” web site. Creating this service is a good start, but at present it does not provide any direct flood risk information.</p>
<p>Rather it lists the local government responsible for the location and previous flood studies for the area. It provides some mapping of past flooding, but it isn’t tied to any particular quantitative risk information. It also lists a plethora of vaguely relevant GIS data, much of which is for places other than the point of interest.</p>
<p>To be useful to the general public, this site needs to develop further so it presents concrete information in a simple manner. The information should be probabilistic but straightforward to understand. The more of this information the public has, the more it will influence behaviours ranging from property purchase decisions to motivating flood preparedness.</p>
<p>Other approaches to addressing legacy problems such as buy-back schemes for frequently flooded properties are also worthy and are being considered in both <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/flood-buyback-will-transform-6ha-of-properties-into-parks-20120921-26b1y.html">Queensland</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-10/flood-buy-back-turns-benjeroop-into-a-22ghost-town22/4003852">Victoria</a>. </p>
<p>Another planning issue relates to where we locate essential services and how we design other essential services such as sewerage infrastructure. The <a href="http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2013/01/29/558220_latest-news.html">evacuation of Bundaberg Hospital</a> underlines the importance of this - we need to put essential services where they will be as safe as possible from flooding.</p>
<p>Finally we need to start to plan for climate change impacts on flooding. This is challenging because climate change impacts are uncertain at present, although we do know that warmer air can hold more water vapour and more water vapour can lead to greater rainfall amounts - a key reason why northern Australia experiences larger rainfall events than the southern states.</p>
<p>Flooding is the most costly cause of natural disaster in Australia and we need to keep working to try to reduce its impacts. It is difficult and expensive to control where flood water goes, but good planning can help make reduce costs and improve community safety.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11835/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Western receives funding from the Australian Research Council for flood forecasting research and has consulted to the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment on flood issues.</span></em></p>Parts of Queensland and New South Wales have big floods again with people being evacuated, properties flooded and tragically some fatalities. We have heard reports of hundreds of millimetres of rainfall…Andrew Western, Professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/118292013-01-29T01:00:13Z2013-01-29T01:00:13ZWhy are so many Queenslanders still without flood insurance?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19660/original/9jcrhyf8-1359418532.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=42%2C59%2C5629%2C3442&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cost was one of the reasons why Queenslanders remained uninsured for flood damage but there were other surprising factors.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland towns and suburbs have been hit by floods again. Flooding is not a rare event here and most residents are not surprised by the recurrence of floods.</p>
<p>But the memory of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/councils-should-cop-some-blame-for-qld-flood-insurance-woes-659">2011 floods</a> is still fresh. Inevitably some homes will be damaged by the floodwaters. Some enduring problems regarding flood insurance threaten to explode as homeowners come back to clean up the mess.</p>
<p>When it comes to property damage, some of these affected households will eventually find that insurance companies are not going to recover their economic losses. Some are not even offered flood cover, whereas some policyholders elected to opt-out. Non-insurance or under-insurance remains an issue.</p>
<p>Why are they left uninsured? Because of their location, risk awareness, or economic reasons? Or ultimately all come down to some kind of policy failures?</p>
<p>After the 2011 Queensland floods, the Federal Government looked into the issue and commissioned the <a href="http://www.ndir.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=review.htm">Natural Disaster Insurance Review</a> (NDIR). They have identified a range of supply-side problems to fix. Some of these pertain to the practice of the insurance industry, and some entail legislative efforts.</p>
<p>Quite reasonably, the Review does not recommend mandatory purchase of insurance. Thus, on the demand side, households are left to exercise their freedom of choice. It is up to them if they elect to bear the risks.</p>
<p>But some households really never sign up to a flood insurance package, even if it is available at affordable costs, and even if they knowingly stay in a flood-prone site.</p>
<p>Isn’t it true that people would opt to get insured if they know they are at risk and can afford it? This is our standard assumption – people say no (or under-insure) if they think the floods <a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfire-losses-reignite-debate-about-insurance-reform-11512">won’t affect them</a> or the insurance premiums too expensive, and vice versa. The NDIR and the industry share this view.</p>
<p>This is only part of the picture. Research shows that non-insurance is related to factors other than perceived risk and affordability.</p>
<p>In a research project funded by Griffith University, about 500 residents of South East Queensland, including Brisbane, were telephone-interviewed in 2012. They were asked if they have flood cover on current policies. More than 40% of respondents did not have it, or did not have home insurance at all.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People whose homes are at a high risk of flooding tend to have insurance - but research suggests there is a not a strong positive relationship.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>True, those respondents who know their homes are at high risk of flooding are more likely to have flood cover on current policies. Also, those who had experienced property damage in the 2011 severe flooding event tend to have such cover. However, this is not a strong positive relationship. Statistically, it is not conclusive to suggest that perceived risk and damage experience explain the tendency for non-insurance.</p>
<p>Likewise, those who have higher incomes and find flood insurance affordable to them tend to insure. But no strong statistical relationship is observed. Household income and affordability are not a good explanation either. The standard assumption does not always hold.</p>
<p>What is the motive then?</p>
<p>Social influences. The findings suggest that if the respondents believe that their family or friends would want them to insure, they tend to do so. Also if they believe that other people like them would buy flood cover, they tend to follow suit. The decision is predominantly socially motivated.</p>
<p>Interestingly, such social factors are precisely what the <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/climate-change-adaptation/draft">Productivity Commission</a> has identified but recommended not to deal with through government policy.</p>
<p>Certainly there is something the market cannot do, for which the government should at least facilitate. Although it might not be appropriate for them to mobilise social influence directly, they should try to make sure the community has the capacity to spread the message. There is no excuse for the government to avoid addressing behavioural drivers. Governments have been using all sort of measures to encourage good behaviours and punish the bad ones.</p>
<p>Local community organisations may help increase the voluntary adoption of flood insurance through word-of-mouth. Governments and the industry should support (financially) their efforts and harness the social forces they help to create.</p>
<p><em>(*Findings will be reported in an article due to publish in the March edition of Area journal.)</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Lo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queensland towns and suburbs have been hit by floods again. Flooding is not a rare event here and most residents are not surprised by the recurrence of floods. But the memory of the 2011 floods is still…Alex Lo, Lecturer, Griffith School of Environment, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.