tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/renewable-energy-target-8912/articlesRenewable Energy Target – The Conversation2023-11-23T08:13:24Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2184272023-11-23T08:13:24Z2023-11-23T08:13:24ZThe government will underwrite risky investments in renewables – here’s why that’s a good idea<p>Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/delivering-more-reliable-energy-all-australians">today announced</a> a scheme to underwrite the risk of investing in new renewable energy generation and storage. </p>
<p>The expansion of the national <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-supply/capacity-investment-scheme">Capacity Investment Scheme</a> follows <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-capacity-investment-scheme-supports-nsw-deliver-1gw-cleaner-cheaper-more-reliable-energy-nsw">a successful pilot study with New South Wales</a>. The government paid A$1.8 billion for just over a gigawatt of capacity, through a combination of batteries and other storage. </p>
<p>Bowen says the scheme “underwrites new renewable generation and storage, providing certainty for renewable investors and cheaper, cleaner energy for households and businesses”. And if all goes well, the scheme will provide a financial return to taxpayers. </p>
<p>Most of the country still relies on dirty coal-fired power. Several power stations have <a href="https://theconversation.com/farewell-liddell-what-to-expect-when-australias-oldest-coal-plant-closes-203548">already closed</a> and many more have flagged intentions to close. The ageing fleet is also unreliable, causing power outages. Before coal exits the system, we need to replace it. This scheme will ensure that happens well in advance. </p>
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<h2>What’s the problem?</h2>
<p>The government was not on track to achieve 82% renewables by 2030. It was clearly under pressure to do something about that. And now it has. </p>
<p>If what’s been announced today actually is built, then it’s likely we will be able to hit the target. The amount of new capacity being considered will certainly make a huge difference. So that’s 23 gigawatts of new variable renewables such as wind and solar, plus 9GW of “dispatchable” capacity, which involves storage – mainly batteries.</p>
<p>If the scheme does its job, it’s also likely to accelerate the closure of coal-fired power stations. </p>
<p>That will help us to reduce emissions but it also raises the risk of blackouts from grid instability. That’s a worry as we head into a long, hot summer. </p>
<p>We need to close the gap between closure of coal-fired power and new generators coming online to firm up the system. </p>
<p>Today’s announcement takes us to a total of 32GW nationally. Compare that to the total generation capacity of the National Electricity Market <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/national-electricity-market-fact-sheet.pdf">at about 65GW</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-australia-actually-get-to-net-zero-heres-how-217778">How could Australia actually get to net zero? Here's how</a>
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<h2>How does the Capacity Investment Scheme help?</h2>
<p>Under the original scheme, the federal government has begun to run competitive tenders seeking bids for clean renewable generation projects.</p>
<p>Under the expanded scheme, successful projects will be offered contracts in which a revenue floor and ceiling are agreed with the Commonwealth.</p>
<p>This scheme will be rolled out with regular six-monthly tenders from the second quarter of the 2024–25 financial year through to 2027.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561223/original/file-20231123-19-dftfnw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561223/original/file-20231123-19-dftfnw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561223/original/file-20231123-19-dftfnw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561223/original/file-20231123-19-dftfnw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561223/original/file-20231123-19-dftfnw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561223/original/file-20231123-19-dftfnw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561223/original/file-20231123-19-dftfnw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561223/original/file-20231123-19-dftfnw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">If revenue earned by a project exceeds the net revenue ceiling, the owner pays the Commonwealth an agreed percentage of revenue above revenue ceiling. The Commonwealth would pay the project when revenue is below the revenue floor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span></span>
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<p>In principle, it’s a good idea for two reasons. First, it provides a much greater level of certainty for investors. Difficulty getting people to invest in the renewable energy sector is one of the reasons why we’re not on track. In this case the government will be paying directly, holding auctions to guarantee a certain revenue for those who invest in these projects. In other policy instruments it’s really the consumer who ends up paying. </p>
<p>The way it’s done, through “contract the difference”, is pretty sensible, in that the government is only underwriting the risk, rather than the full amount of money. If the revenue the project actually generates in the market is within the agreed range, the government doesn’t pay anything. </p>
<p>But if the people who invested are not getting the agreed amount of financial return, the government will pay the difference. Or most of the difference anyway, through a formula yet to be worked out – but the government will certainly be contributing towards that difference. </p>
<p>On the other hand, it’s not a one-sided arrangement. If the project generates more revenue than the agreed ceiling, that money goes back to the government. So the government’s not signing up to an open chequebook. </p>
<p>Second, this approach puts all the responsibility for reliability of the grid in the hands of the states. That is, dealing with the closure of the coal plants and making sure there’s enough capacity to replace it.</p>
<p>That’s probably a good idea, because some of the states have different views about how reliability should be addressed. Some would not want to see any gas-fired generation being used to back up renewables; others may be happy to have gas-fired power or even a hydrogen power station to back up reliability. It will be up to them now. </p>
<p>Alongside these steps federal and state governments still need to step up the pressure on building transmission lines to connect all of this new renewable capacity to the grid. However, today’s announcement does nothing to address how this will be done. </p>
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<h2>What will this do to power prices?</h2>
<p>I don’t expect it to make much difference to prices. While new renewables themselves are cheap, the transmission and storage needed to back them up will not be. So they’ll probably largely balance each other out. </p>
<p>The bottom line is we will be getting a more reliable and lower-emissions electricity sector at a relatively low carbon cost. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218427/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have a financial interest in companies relevant to the article through his superannuation fund.</span></em></p>The Australian Labor government’s expanded Capacity Investment Scheme gives us a better chance of hitting high renewable energy targets. It’s not without risk but well worth the rewards.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138792023-10-18T19:05:56Z2023-10-18T19:05:56ZThe original and still the best: why it’s time to renew Australia’s renewable energy policy<p>If Australia is to meet its <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022#:%7E:text=In%20June%202022%20Australia%20updated,emissions%20budget%20from%202021%2D2030.">commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions</a> to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, we need to cut emissions faster. Even if all current government policy commitments are achieved – an unlikely outcome given delays in implementation – emissions are still <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022#:%7E:text=Under%20a%20'with%20additional%20measures,below%202005%20levels%20by%202035.">projected to be only 40% below 2005 levels</a> by 2030. </p>
<p>Last year the federal government announced that <a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/the-82-per-cent-national-renewable-energy-target-where-did-it-come-from-and-how-can-we-get-there/#:%7E:text=But%20then%20in%20December%202022,renewable%20electricity%20target%20by%202030%E2%80%9D.">82% of all electricity production</a> would come from renewable energy by 2030. This was a crucial step. To have any chance of hitting our overall emission reduction targets, we must speed up the rollout of renewable energy. </p>
<p>Several experts, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Tony Wood at the Grattan Institute</a> and the <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/clean-energy-council-releases-power-playbook">Clean Energy Council</a> are calling on governments to consider using the Renewable Energy Target (RET) to accelerate investment in new renewable supply. Why are these experts recommending the RET as a policy option?</p>
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<h2>A brief history of renewable energy in Australia</h2>
<p>At the turn of the century Australia had almost no wind or solar energy generation. In 2001, the Howard government recognised the potential benefits of renewables and <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/flagpost/2014/august/ret-review#:%7E:text=The%20RET%20was%20originally%20introduced,on%20top%20of%20existing%20generation.">introduced the RET</a>. The target, which was expanded and reformed by the Rudd and Abbott governments, has two elements:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/How-the-scheme-works/Large-scale-Renewable-Energy-Target">Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target</a>, which requires retailers to buy a set percentage (currently about 15%) of their energy from renewable producers through the purchase of a Large-Scale Generation Certificate</p></li>
<li><p>the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/How-the-scheme-works/Small-scale-Renewable-Energy-Scheme">Small-Scale Renewable Energy Scheme</a>, which provides an upfront subsidy to households and small businesses that install their own rooftop solar panels. </p></li>
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<p>Over the past two decades, the RET has been by far the most effective of all Australia’s climate initiatives. It has led to an additional 40 gigawatts (the capacity of around <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/media-centre/asx-and-media-releases/2023/april/agls-liddell-power-station-closes-after-52-years-of-operation">20 Liddell power stations</a>) of new solar and wind generation. It has lifted Australia’s renewable generation from almost nothing other than hydro (from Hydro Tasmania and Snowy Hydro) in 2000 to nearly <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/au/?range=all&interval=1y&view=discrete-time">37% of all electricity today</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">The human factor: why Australia's net zero transition risks failing unless it is fair</a>
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<p>Between 2011 and 2021, the RET accounted for more than half of Australia’s greenhouse gas abatement, delivering by 2021 40 million metric tonnes (Mt) out of about 75 Mt. Over a decade that’s the equivalent of retiring two very large coal-fired power stations each year (see chart below). </p>
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<img alt="Emissions reduction in Australia by policy driver." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Emissions reduction in Australia by policy driver.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Clean Energy Regulator</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>The RET succeeded for two reasons. First, its targets extend all the way through to 2030, creating certainty for investors. Second, it created a market that encourages retailers to purchase the lowest-cost large-scale generation certificates. In purchasing a certificate, the retailer pays the difference between the cost of a project and what its generated power earns on the market. </p>
<p>That approach has diversified our renewable energy mix by making it easier to compare different technologies. For example, a wind farm might cost more to build than a solar farm but it can potentially earn more on the market by generating at the right time of day or night. A greater diversity of renewable energy sources means more reliable generation. </p>
<h2>Why has the boom in renewables investment stalled?</h2>
<p>The bad news is that while investment in <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/australian-rooftop-solar-breaks-new-ground-in-2022-clean-energy-australia-report">small-scale solar photovoltaic continues to grow</a>, investment in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/worldtoday/renewable-energy-investment-stalls/102765622">large-scale renewables has largely stalled</a>. There are two main reasons why. </p>
<p>First, Australia must build more transmission infrastructure. We have great renewable energy resources but we need new transmission lines to take that energy to homes and businesses. Governments have recognised this and are prioritising new <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2022/2022-documents/a3-renewable-energy-zones.pdf?la=en">Renewable Energy Zones</a>, with the Commonwealth providing substantial funding through its <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/renewable/rewiring-the-nation">Rewiring the Nation</a> package.</p>
<p>But the second reason for the stalled investment is less well known. The
<a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target#:%7E:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20amendment,post%2D2020%20targets%20adjusted%20accordingly.">target of 33 terrawatt hours</a> under the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Australia#:%7E:text=In%202019%2C%20Australia%20met%20its,terawatt%2Dhours%20(TWh).&text=With%20the%202020%20targets%20being,Victoria%20and%20the%20Northern%20Territory.">largely achieved in 2020</a> and since then has not been increased. The current legislated target is about 15%, well below the government’s commitment to reach 82% by 2030. Why did governments pivot away from the successful RET policy?</p>
<p>In the late 2010s, the Commonwealth government was not interested in increasing renewable energy targets. So state governments keen to act on climate change moved away from using the RET and other market-based policies, instead creating their own policy frameworks, known as <a href="https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/industry/long-term-energy-service-agreements">Contracts-for-Difference</a>.</p>
<p>Under these frameworks, state governments hold reverse auctions and award solar and wind projects a contract for a guaranteed price for their energy for 15–20 years. </p>
<p>Government contracts-for-difference can be a useful tool to assist new technologies, such as offshore wind, to enter the market. But they have <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/enp/wpaper/eprg1901.html">significant limitations</a> when they are used to deploy mature technologies such as solar and wind. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p>The most obvious problem is that, in contrast to a market framework such as the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target, under contracts-for-difference the government becomes the only market for renewable energy. The government assumes the risk of any project, freeing operators from the need to efficiently locate and run their projects. If a project fails, the public pays the cost in higher power prices or taxes. </p>
<p>Moreover, when government is buying the power, it naturally often goes for the cheapest option, thereby usually favouring solar and narrowing our renewable energy mix. And a generator has no incentive to sell its electricity to households and businesses. The result is that investors hold off building new projects, waiting instead to be awarded a contract-for-difference. </p>
<p>This dynamic is stalling investment even as coal generators near the end of their useful lives and the market demand for both energy and firming capacity grows. </p>
<h2>Governments working together to get investment flowing</h2>
<p>But there is reason to be optimistic. The states and the Commonwealth all now agree on the need to rapidly decarbonise the electricity sector by deploying renewables, transmission and storage. Now the states have the opportunity to work with the Commonwealth to incorporate their different frameworks into a nationally consistent, market-based approach built on the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target. </p>
<p>The simplest approach, which would create a pivot back to market-based frameworks, would be to legislate to increase that target each year to achieve a linear growth from current renewable energy levels to 82% in 2030. </p>
<p>Under that solution, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421521005139">history suggests</a> investors would rush to capture their share of the target. Investors and energy retailers would work together to find the right mix of technologies to deliver the lowest-cost power to consumers.</p>
<p>A national 82% renewable energy target also ensures that as other <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/news/sectoral-decarbonisation-plans-a-welcome-priority-for-australias-government/">sectors use electrification</a> to decarbonise, they will have access to clean energy. Without a target, electrification may lead to use of high-emissions coal power. </p>
<p>Under our proposal, state governments could still pursue their own objectives, such as supporting projects in a particular region, but they could <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12457">align their policy frameworks with the RET</a> by funding the cost of Large-Scale Generation Certificates rather than entire renewable energy projects.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>If the electricity sector does not reach 82% by 2030, other sectors will have to do more to deliver our legislated 43% reduction in emissions by 2030. This is likely to be more costly and unnecessarily increase pressure on our trade-exposed industries, which would be required to reduce emissions more quickly at higher cost.</p>
<p>No Australian emission reduction policy matches the success of the Renewable Energy Target. By working together and aligning their renewable energy policies with the target, Commonwealth and state governments can get Australia’s renewable energy investment back on track, providing us with a reliable, competitive and clean electricity system by 2030 and beyond.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Nelson is an Associate Professor at Griffith University and the EGM, Energy Markets at Iberdrola Australia, which develops renewable projects and batteries. He is also a Climate Councillor.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joel Gilmore an Associate Professor at Griffith University and is the General Manager Policy and Regional Energy at Iberdrola Australia, which develops, owns and operates renewable energy and batteries.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tahlia Nolan is the Commercial Manager Hydrogen at Iberdrola Australia, which develops, owns and operates renewable energy and batteries. </span></em></p>Of all Australia’s climate policies, the Renewable Energy Target has been the most effective. Why have Australian governments moved away from it, and how can they revive it?Tim Nelson, Associate Professor of Economics, Griffith UniversityJoel Gilmore, Associate Professor, Griffith UniversityTahlia Nolan, PhD Candidate, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1960332022-12-14T19:03:49Z2022-12-14T19:03:49ZAustralia needs much more solar and wind power, but where are the best sites? We mapped them all<p>Renewable energy’s share of Australia’s <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/about-the-national-electricity-market-nem">main electricity grid</a> has more than doubled from <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=1y&interval=1M">16% to 35%</a> in five years, and the federal government wants this figure to reach <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-staggering-numbers-behind-australias-82-per-cent-renewables-target/">82% by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Nearly all new power plants in Australia are <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/">solar and wind</a> because these are the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021/executive-summary">cheapest sources of electricity</a>. Some of the extra solar capacity will be on rooftops. However, most solar and wind farms will necessarily be in regional areas. So where are the best sites?</p>
<p>Our report, released today, set out to answer this question. We developed so-called “<a href="https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/heatmaps/">heat maps</a>” that identify which sites across Australia are – and are not – suitable for wind and solar projects. </p>
<p>The maps highlight the importance of being close to existing or planned high-voltage transmission lines. We hope our findings will empower communities, landholders, local councils when negotiating with renewable energy developers. </p>
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<h2>What makes a site suitable?</h2>
<p>So what makes a site suitable for a renewable energy project? It depends on:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>solar and wind resources – wind in particular can vary greatly from place to place, such as a windy ridge top versus a still valley bottom</p></li>
<li><p>access to <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">high-voltage transmission</a> – the transformers, towers and cables that carry generated electricity to the cities</p></li>
<li><p>social, cultural and environmental constraints – urban areas, national parks and remnant native forest are unsuitable</p></li>
<li><p>aspect (ideally north-facing for solar) and slope (not too steep)</p></li>
<li><p>willing hosts – landholders host solar and wind farms and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-landowners-to-get-800m-to-host-high-voltage-transmission-in-renewables-push/">transmission lines</a> in return for large annual payments</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/we-want-to-be-part-of-that-movement-residents-embrace-renewable-energy-but-worry-how-their-towns-will-change-184743?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton">social licence</a> – local community support in response to the economic activity and jobs that flow from constructing and maintaining solar and wind farms</p></li>
<li><p>government incentives or disincentives</p></li>
<li><p>access to roads, skilled workers and local electrical loads.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The two important siting factors that most often vary greatly from place to place within a region are access to the transmission network and to wind resources. </p>
<p>Access to transmission is the largest constraint. Typical power lines cross dozens to hundreds of properties and require complex negotiations with many people.</p>
<p>In contrast, solar and wind farms generally fit on one or a few properties. That usually makes an access agreement much easier to negotiate. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">What is the electricity transmission system, and why does it need fixing?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1472666413680627714"}"></div></p>
<h2>A closer look at the heat maps</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/heatmaps/#map-links">high-resolution heat maps</a> identify the solar and wind potential of all prospective areas close to existing or approved high-power transmission. </p>
<p>Pixels in the map are red if a location scores well. Yellow and blue pixels indicate less preferred locations. Green pixels are unsuitable land such as conservation reserves, urban regions and native forests. </p>
<p>The pixels are 1km by 1km for solar and 250m by 250m for wind, because the wind resource varies more rapidly with location. </p>
<p>Users can zoom and pan with ease. Clicking on a pixel obtains an indicative relative cost of generating solar or wind electricity (in A$/MWh) for that location. It includes the cost of energy from a solar or wind farm plus the cost of a low-voltage powerline to the nearest existing or planned high-voltage transmission lines.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-need-land-and-lots-of-it-that-poses-tricky-questions-for-regional-australia-156031">Renewables need land – and lots of it. That poses tricky questions for regional Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heat map showing Victorian solar resource for a low-cost scenario with overhead powerlines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=f1a311a1f6cf42399f39d67dd04c6adf&extent=83.751,-49.176,180,-0.0352">RE100 Group</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It doesn’t include costs for environmental and geotechnical approvals, road upgrades, substations, payments to host farmers, risk and others. These costs vary greatly with the scale of the project. To include these costs, heat-map users can select high, medium or low-range costs.</p>
<p>All existing and planned transmission lines with voltage of 275kV or above are included. These include anticipated or actionable projects discussed in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s 2022 <a href="https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/aemo-releases-30-year-electricity-market-roadmap">Integrated System Plan</a>. We added two scenarios for 220kV lines in Tasmania in order to include the <a href="https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/battery-of-the-nation">Battery of the Nation</a> hydropower project.</p>
<p>We modelled <a href="https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/heatmaps/#map-links">12 scenarios</a>: six each for solar and wind. The scenarios cover high, medium and low-cost assumptions, with overhead or underground low-voltage powerline connection to the transmission network. Going underground increases the cost by six times. </p>
<p>Landholders might be able to negotiate a substantial annual access fee for overhead powerlines to the transmission network, to allow developers to avoid the costs of going underground. Hybrid overhead-underground powerlines might sometimes be an attractive compromise. </p>
<p>Solar and wind generation within each pixel is assigned to one of five cost classes: A, B, C, D and E. The lower-cost A, B and C classes are strongly preferred.</p>
<p>For each local government area in Australia, we estimated potential solar and wind capacities for the five different cost classes. The renewable resource that can be used will depend on local transmission line capacity and local loads. We can provide detailed information to local councils. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/up-to-90-of-electricity-from-solar-and-wind-the-cheapest-option-by-2030-csiro-analysis-151831">Up to 90% of electricity from solar and wind the cheapest option by 2030: CSIRO analysis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>There’s no shortage of suitable sites</h2>
<p>Class A, B and C sites are all close to existing and planned high-voltage transmission. This consideration outranks excellence of local solar and wind resources. Landholders in Class A/B/C regions can negotiate attractive terms to host solar and wind farms and powerline connections to transmission networks. </p>
<p>A particularly attractive region for solar and wind farms in NSW is the Goulburn-Lithgow district. It’s well served by transmission and has good wind and solar resources. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heat map around Goulburn for the scenario with underground power lines and low solar costs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=f1a311a1f6cf42399f39d67dd04c6adf&extent=83.751,-49.176,180,-0.0352">RE100 Group</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Victoria, the Yallourn district is attractive because of good wind potential and strong existing transmission into Melbourne, plus there’s a need to replace local coal industry jobs. There’s also extensive wind potential west of Melbourne, good solar potential in the state’s north and extensive offshore wind resources in Bass Strait.</p>
<p>South Australia has excellent wind and solar potential to the east of St Vincent and Spencer gulfs. </p>
<p>Queensland’s best wind and solar sites follow the coastal transmission lines north from Brisbane. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Queensland sites for solar under the low-cost scenario with overhead powerlines.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Good wind and solar sites in Western Australia follow the transmission lines north and south of Perth. </p>
<p>Tasmania has extensive wind resources along the north coast, on King and Flinders islands and in Bass Strait. Their development depends on the <a href="https://www.marinuslink.com.au/">Marinus Link</a> being constructed across Bass Strait.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tasmanian sites for wind under the low-cost scenario with overhead powerlines.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it-190241">There's a huge surge in solar production under way – and Australia could show the world how to use it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Who’ll benefit from these maps?</h2>
<p>Solar and wind farm developers have extensive information and experience in evaluating locations. This creates a large imbalance in knowledge when they negotiate with landholders, communities and governments.</p>
<p>By empowering local councils and landholders to identify suitable sites, our heat maps will help reduce this imbalance.</p>
<p>Developers might benefit, too, if the maps reduce the complexity and time involved in gaining legal access and community acceptance. </p>
<p>Local governments can also use these maps to identify potential zones for multiple solar and wind farms. These <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-is-renewable-energy-zone/">renewable energy zones</a>, which are recognised by the states, could help attract developers, boosting local economic activity.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The authors gratefully acknowledge funding support for this research from CWP Renewables and Innovation Connections.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196033/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cheng Cheng receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, Innovation Connections, and several private companies. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, Innovation Connections and several private companies</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Nadolny receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency.</span></em></p>To achieve a target of 82% renewable energy generation by 2030 requires a huge number of new sites for solar and wind farms.Cheng Cheng, Research Officer, School of Engineering, Australian National UniversityAndrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityAnna Nadolny, Research Officer, 100% Renewable Energy Group, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1957292022-12-06T19:04:25Z2022-12-06T19:04:25ZIn 2022, Australia’s governments finally got moving on climate. Here’s how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499180/original/file-20221206-5837-m8brt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=125%2C57%2C6318%2C3874&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We might look back on 2022 as the year when Australian governments finally started taking climate change as seriously as it needs to be. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/resource/government-climate-action-leading-policies-and-programs-in-australia-2022">new report</a> shows federal, state and territory governments all substantially improved their climate action goals this year. But we’re not home and hosed yet – there’s more to do, especially if we are to hold global warming under 1.5°C.</p>
<p>Most of us know the federal government improved Australia’s emission reduction targets, legislating a 43% cut on 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. But states and territories have been forging ahead too. For the first time,
the federal government and all states and territories are committed to net-zero by 2050. </p>
<p>That’s promising. Just last week, climate change minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/the-oz/news/government-confirms-were-behind-on-our-net-zero-homework/news-story/40a60dd3b724cb51a0e3c6607e428da0">announced</a> the last six months of policy announcements mean our emissions are now on track to fall 40% below 2005 levels by 2030. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-change-bill-is-set-to-become-law-but-3-important-measures-are-missing-190102">Labor's climate change bill is set to become law – but 3 important measures are missing</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How did we make such rapid progress?</h2>
<p>A change of government makes a difference – but it’s by no means the only factor. </p>
<p>Policymakers have been pressing forward on many fronts for years now, often under the radar. Our national construction code now has a <a href="https://theconversation.com/7-star-housing-is-a-step-towards-zero-carbon-but-theres-much-more-to-do-starting-with-existing-homes-189542">seven star minimum</a> energy rating for new houses. The <a href="https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/act-ev-strategy-revealed-new-ice-vehicles-banned-from-2035">Australian Capital Territory</a> and <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/transport/projects/electricvehicles/zero-emission-strategy#:%7E:text=The%2010%2Dyear%20strategy%20reaffirms,be%20zero%20emission%20by%202026">Queensland</a> have set new electric vehicle uptake goals. </p>
<p>Federal and state governments are funding hydrogen hubs while the federal government will spend billions on decarbonising existing industries and developing new low-carbon industries. The federal government is planning new fuel efficiency standards, meaning Australia’s reputation as a dumping ground for high-polluting cars may end. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499181/original/file-20221206-18781-49fs57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="farm nsw hawksbury river" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499181/original/file-20221206-18781-49fs57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499181/original/file-20221206-18781-49fs57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499181/original/file-20221206-18781-49fs57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499181/original/file-20221206-18781-49fs57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499181/original/file-20221206-18781-49fs57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499181/original/file-20221206-18781-49fs57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499181/original/file-20221206-18781-49fs57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Larger and stronger disasters hitting farms like this one outside Sydney have intensified calls for climate action.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Electricity is where change is happening fastest</h2>
<p>In 2022, the electricity sector saw the most change as state and territory governments invested heavily in renewables and grid capacity. </p>
<p>Queensland has set a renewable generation target of 70% by 2032, plans for two enormous pumped hydro schemes and A$280 million for better transmission infrastructure linking cities and industrial regions with new renewable energy zones. </p>
<p>Victoria, has also increased its ambition on renewable electricity. It’s aiming for 65% renewables by 2030 and 95% by 2035, and has plans for nine gigawatts of offshore wind by 2040. </p>
<p>New South Wales is accelerating plans to connect its renewable energy zones with cities and industrial regions, allocating $1.2 billion for transmission. </p>
<p>Western Australia will phase out state-owned coal-fired power by 2030. Tasmania is powering ahead with plans to export its abundant hydroelectricity via seabed cable to the national market. </p>
<p>Early mover South Australia will soon be the world’s first <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/09/16/south-australia-set-to-become-first-big-grid-to-run-on-100-renewables/">gigawatt scale grid</a> powered by clean energy. It went from 1% renewables to 65% renewable in just 15 years, and is aiming for 100% net renewables by 2030. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499182/original/file-20221206-18-t01vpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Transmission lines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499182/original/file-20221206-18-t01vpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499182/original/file-20221206-18-t01vpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499182/original/file-20221206-18-t01vpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499182/original/file-20221206-18-t01vpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499182/original/file-20221206-18-t01vpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499182/original/file-20221206-18-t01vpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499182/original/file-20221206-18-t01vpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New transmission lines are a key part of the clean energy shift.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As state and territory initiatives set the pace, the federal government is helping <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-ministers/priorities/national-energy-transformation-partnership#:%7E:text=On%2012%20August%202022%2C%20Commonwealth,transformation%20of%20Australia's%20energy%20sector.">coordinate and accelerate</a> the shift to clean energy. </p>
<p>Importantly, the federal government is planning to spend $20 billion to make our old grid ready for a renewable future, through low-cost financing for the new transmission projects vital to connect Renewable Energy Zones with cities and industrial regions in need of power. </p>
<p>So far, this has included $2.25 billion committed to Victorian renewable energy zone projects and a new connection between NSW and Victoria, as well as joint funding for the Tasmania-Victoria undersea link and pumped hydro projects in Tasmania. </p>
<p>Federal support for six offshore wind zones will also give essential certainty for renewable developers to begin the long process of building our first offshore windfarms, where the winds are stronger and more constant. </p>
<p>Our analysis shows the collective impact of state and territory commitments and action represents the equivalent of an Australia-wide 2030 renewable target of 69%.
The federal government wants even more than that – 82% by 2030. </p>
<p>These figures approach what’s compatible to keeping warming to the internationally agreed goal of 1.5°C or less, according to our <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/resource/decarbonisation-futures-solutions-actions-and-benchmarks-for-a-net-zero-emissions-australia/">analysis</a> and the energy market operator’s <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp">long-term plan</a>. But right now, they’re targets. It will take serious groundwork to make them reality. </p>
<h2>Renewables unlock progress elsewhere – but we still need action on demand</h2>
<p>Good news – investment in renewables will enable the decarbonisation of a large proportion of the rest of the economy. Once our electricity is clean, we can <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-09-07/climate-change-solution-electrify-everything-saul-griffiths/100428158">electrify everything else</a> that uses fossil fuels, from transport to industry. </p>
<p>Even with these tailwinds, we’ll still need to push in one other key area: demand.
Using energy efficiently will be essential as energy demand grows alongside electrification. </p>
<p>What would that look like? Think more efficient appliances, better energy performance in industry and encouraging public and active transport. </p>
<p>There are promising signs. The federal government is <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/news-media/news/national-energy-performance-strategy-neps-have-your-say">consulting</a> on a new strategy to give energy efficiency a boost. And building ministers have signed off on stronger requirements to ensure new houses use energy more efficiently. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499193/original/file-20221206-22-clhsnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="insulation installation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499193/original/file-20221206-22-clhsnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499193/original/file-20221206-22-clhsnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499193/original/file-20221206-22-clhsnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499193/original/file-20221206-22-clhsnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499193/original/file-20221206-22-clhsnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499193/original/file-20221206-22-clhsnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499193/original/file-20221206-22-clhsnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Retrofitting existing homes with insulation, heat pumps and other energy efficiency measures could help us shake our reputation for owning glorified tents.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What else do we need?</h2>
<p>Electric vehicles are finally starting to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/14/electric-vehicles-just-339-of-new-australian-car-sales-despite-sharp-increase-report-says">get traction</a>, helped by stamp duty cuts and registration fee reductions in most states and territories. But we’ll also need to reduce demand by encouraging more people to use public transport, walk, cycle or use electric scooters or e-bikes. </p>
<p>Smart urban planning is needed too, to ensure non-car options are possible. </p>
<p>We still need to improve energy efficiency for existing homes, particularly for renters, as well as in new and existing commercial buildings. Retrofitting insulation and other energy-saving technologies can help cut emissions while boosting human health and comfort, and lowering bills. </p>
<p>Tough sectors such as heavy industry can look to ways to reduce energy demand to help manage the load on our grid. </p>
<p>So, as 2022 races to a close, it’s worth taking stock of our accomplishments. This year, the large-scale changes we need are beginning to happen. </p>
<p>In 2023, our governments should tackle the less visible but just as important question of demand, to ensure our path to a future without carbon emissions is as smooth as possible. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/against-the-odds-south-australia-is-a-renewable-energy-powerhouse-how-on-earth-did-they-do-it-153789">Against the odds, South Australia is a renewable energy powerhouse. How on Earth did they do it?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195729/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Cleary works for Climateworks Centre as the Sustainable Economies System Lead. Climateworks Centre receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations. Climateworks Centre works within Monash University's Sustainable Development Institute.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Fumei is part of Climateworks Centre which receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations. Climateworks Centre works within Monash University's Sustainable Development Institute.</span></em></p>After a decade of climate wars, Australia is suddenly united – with state, territory and federal goverments aiming for net zero by 2050 for the first timeAlison Cleary, Sustainable Economies Lead, Climateworks CentreSarah Fumei, Senior Project Manager, Climateworks CentreLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1852072022-06-16T05:17:45Z2022-06-16T05:17:45Z5 policy decisions from recent history that led to today’s energy crisis<p>If you aren’t a long-term energy policy news junkie, you’d be forgiven for thinking today’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-national-electricity-market-was-just-suspended-heres-why-and-what-happens-next-185136">crisis</a> arrived fairly suddenly.</p>
<p>Indeed, Liberal leader Peter Dutton is framing it as a recent catastrophe, <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/dutton-accuses-labor-of-spooking-power-market-by-transitioning-to-renewables-too-quickly/news-story/b032bbccd5b4f0d236cba59cb06985fc">saying</a> it was caused by Labor “transitioning into renewables too quickly […] they are spooking the market.”</p>
<p>But this crisis hasn’t come out of nowhere.</p>
<p>We arrived here thanks to a series of policy decisions under previous governments – state and federal – that left Australia’s energy system ill-equipped to cope with the demands placed on it.</p>
<p>Here are five key policy moments that in part led to the power crisis engulfing Australia today.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="electricity infrastructure behind fence" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469174/original/file-20220616-15-ix44c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469174/original/file-20220616-15-ix44c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469174/original/file-20220616-15-ix44c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469174/original/file-20220616-15-ix44c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469174/original/file-20220616-15-ix44c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469174/original/file-20220616-15-ix44c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469174/original/file-20220616-15-ix44c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The current energy market crisis hasn’t come out of nowhere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jono Searle/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Privatisation of the electricity sector</h2>
<p>The 1990s saw a <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/The%20Australia%20Institute%20%28attachment%29.pdf">trend towards privatisation</a> of government-owned assets, on the logic that industry would run the assets more efficiently. </p>
<p>The Kennett government in Victoria had a strong policy to privatise generators and transmission assets, with South Australia and New South Wales also privatising energy assets. </p>
<p>However, the actual focus of industry is not to be efficient but to maximise shareholder profit (which may involve being more streamlined, but not necessarily). And so the the primary role of the energy sector to provide <a href="https://theconversation.com/hazelwood-power-station-from-modernist-icon-to-greenhouse-pariah-75217">general benefits</a> to Australian residents and businesses has been lost.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-electricity-reform-start-by-giving-power-back-to-the-states-72965">Want electricity reform? Start by giving power back to the states</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. The Gladstone gas terminal agreements</h2>
<p>Liquefied natural gas (LNG) <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/queenslands-boomtime-lng-scheme-faces-todays-harsh-reality-20151223-gltvb0">exports</a> began from the Gladstone LNG gas terminal in Queensland in 2015, during the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison era, connecting the eastern states’ domestic gas markets to the international price. </p>
<p>But the journey began long prior, with construction of this terminal beginning in 2010 (in the middle of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era). It involved years of strategy discussion, policy design and agreements. </p>
<p>These agreements, forged between industry and various state (especially the Beattie Queensland Labor government) and federal governments (going as far back as the Howard era), created an LNG export industry.</p>
<p>Unlike Western Australia, there was no domestic reserve for gas set up as part of the agreements. So on the east coast, we are now exposed to international gas prices.</p>
<p>Of course, in the lead up to creating the LNG export industry, federal governments perhaps could not have been expected to predict Russia’s invasion of Ukraine over a decade later, driving up gas prices.</p>
<p>But the decisions made around the Gladstone gas agreements allowed Australian gas to be shipped offshore and have led to extremely high gas prices domestically.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="four men watch as woman signs paper" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469171/original/file-20220616-18-ap881y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469171/original/file-20220616-18-ap881y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469171/original/file-20220616-18-ap881y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469171/original/file-20220616-18-ap881y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469171/original/file-20220616-18-ap881y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469171/original/file-20220616-18-ap881y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469171/original/file-20220616-18-ap881y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Then-prime minister Malcolm Turnbull during a 2017 signing ceremony with gas industry representatives. Various state and federal governments have influenced policy gas export policy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Axing the price on carbon, watering down the renewable energy target</h2>
<p>Under former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, the then-Coalition government removed the price on carbon created by the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government. This was arguably one of the most backward steps in the efforts to rein in Australia’s carbon emissions and did nothing to incentivise renewable energy production.</p>
<p>It also tried very hard to scrap the renewable energy target (RET) – eventually settling for just watering it down significantly.</p>
<p>The RET required energy retailers and large customers to ensure a share of their energy was derived from renewable sources.</p>
<p>An earlier form of the target was <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/History-of-the-scheme">established in 2001</a> by the Howard Coalition government. The Rudd Labor government increased the target’s ambition in 2009.</p>
<p>In 2015 the Abbott Coalition government dramatically reduced the target, and it was easily met in 2019. Since then, there has been no additional hard incentive to build more renewables.</p>
<p>The reason renewables are still being built now is because they are cheaper than coal. </p>
<p>Investment would continue at a more rapid pace, except for problems renewable energy producers face in getting their power into the grid (more on that later).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="three men in orange vests in front of solar panels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469172/original/file-20220616-8112-6s55tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469172/original/file-20220616-8112-6s55tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469172/original/file-20220616-8112-6s55tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469172/original/file-20220616-8112-6s55tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469172/original/file-20220616-8112-6s55tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469172/original/file-20220616-8112-6s55tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469172/original/file-20220616-8112-6s55tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Rudd Labor government increased the renewable energy target.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ray Strange/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. An effective stop on investment in wind farms in Victoria</h2>
<p>In 2011, the Victorian Baillieu state government effectively put a stop to wind farm investment by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/southern-crossroads/2013/may/29/1">creating a 2km exclusion zone</a> around existing homes. </p>
<p>As researchers Lisa Caripis and Anne Kallies <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-wind-farm-laws-a-blow-to-australias-clean-energy-future-9163">wrote</a> in The Conversation in 2012, these laws:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>effectively give the owners of any dwelling within 2km of a proposed wind farm the power to decide whether or not the development should proceed. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This decision, combined with the reduced RET, really slowed down investment in renewables. </p>
<p>These laws were <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/vic-labor-ditches-2km-wind-farm-restrictions-reforms-planning-laws-66306/">reformed</a> in 2015 by the Andrews government in Victoria.</p>
<h2>5. Lack of investment in transmission infrastructure</h2>
<p>This is not so much a policy moment, but a lack of one.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">Transmission infrastructure</a> is the wires, poles and other bits of the system needed to get electricity from power producers to households and businesses.</p>
<p>Most major transmission projects in Australia connecting coal, gas and hydro projects to the grid have been built by governments and then later privatised. Under the current privatised system, getting new transmission lines built is a complex process.</p>
<p>Renewables generation projects are often built at smaller scales in remote locations and new transmission infrastructure is needed to connect them to the grid. </p>
<p>Many renewable energy projects currently cannot connect to the grid because transmission infrastructure can’t securely absorb the extra capacity.</p>
<p>Both federal and state governments have failed to enact policies encouraging investment in transmission projects that can serve renewables generation. This has set the system up for the failure we’re seeing today.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">What is the electricity transmission system, and why does it need fixing?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A tough job ahead</h2>
<p>Of course, other policy decisions have also led to today’s crisis. For example, there’s been limited government policy encouraging the construction of batteries and pumped hydro in order to store renewable energy produced at times of lower demand. </p>
<p>The exception here is, of course, the tax payer funded Snowy 2.0 scheme, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/10/energy-market-turmoil-snowy-hydro-delayed-until-2028-while-coal-plants-run-at-half-capacity">recently revealed</a> to be running over time and over budget.</p>
<p>Without government intervention, it seems unlikely an orderly transition to renewables can be achieved.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185207/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Dargaville receives funding from the RACE for 2030 CRC and the Woodside Monash Energy Partnership. </span></em></p>We arrived at this moment thanks to a series of policy decisions under previous governments – state and federal - that left Australia’s energy system unable to cope with the demands placed on it.Roger Dargaville, Senior lecturer & Deputy Director Monash Energy Institute, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1786292022-03-10T18:54:46Z2022-03-10T18:54:46ZOffshore wind will come to Australian waters – as long as we pave the way for this new industry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451200/original/file-20220310-27-16hfebo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2308%2C1295&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Offshore wind is playing an <a href="https://windeurope.org/intelligence-platform/product/wind-energy-in-europe-2021-statistics-and-the-outlook-for-2022-2026/">important role</a> in Europe’s shift to renewables. </p>
<p>Australia’s excellent offshore resources now look like they are going to contribute to our own energy transition. Last week, the Victorian government announced <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/561400/Offshore-Wind-Policy-Directions-Paper.pdf">ambitious targets</a> for offshore wind capacity of 2 gigawatts (GW) by 2032, 4GW by 2035, and 9GW by 2040. </p>
<p>If this is all built, it will produce somewhere in the region of <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/victorias-offshore-wind-plan-is-biggest-thing-since-loy-yang-shame-the-media-missed-it/">40 terawatt hours (TWh) of power</a>, close to <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/annual-electricity-consumption-nem">all electricity used</a> via the NEM in Australia’s second most populous state. </p>
<p>Offshore wind offers another excellent renewable option as we decarbonise electricity. But more needs to be done to turn these plans into enormous turbines off our coast. We need to streamline regulations, introduce more targets, fund research and begin building a supply chain. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451192/original/file-20220310-15-v0m2os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4041%2C2266&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Wind turbines in sea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451192/original/file-20220310-15-v0m2os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4041%2C2266&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451192/original/file-20220310-15-v0m2os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451192/original/file-20220310-15-v0m2os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451192/original/file-20220310-15-v0m2os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451192/original/file-20220310-15-v0m2os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451192/original/file-20220310-15-v0m2os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451192/original/file-20220310-15-v0m2os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Offshore wind farms have become an important source of electricity in Europe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Policy targets are key</h2>
<p>Victoria’s groundbreaking announcement comes after federal government support for Australia’s energy transition through the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2021A00120">Offshore Electricity Infrastructure Act 2021</a>. It provides a broad framework to enable offshore renewable energy developments in Australia, and gives greater certainty to offshore wind backers. </p>
<p>Where should offshore wind be built? Key locations are off the Gippsland coast, as well as the coasts of the Hunter and Illawarra regions and off Tasmania’s north-west, according to the draft 2022 <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2022/draft-2022-integrated-system-plan.pdf?la=en">Integrated System Plan</a> issued by Australia’s energy market operator. At least 12 projects are in the <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/offshore-wind-farm-map-of-australia/">early stages of development</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-turbines-off-the-coast-could-help-australia-become-an-energy-superpower-research-finds-164590">Wind turbines off the coast could help Australia become an energy superpower, research finds</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So what do we need to make this a reality? In our <a href="https://www.anu.edu.au/files/document-collection/2022%202%20-%20ZCEAP%20Working%20Paper%20-%20Expert%20Elicitation%2C%2010%20March.pdf">recent working paper</a>, we asked experts from industry, government and the research community which policies they believe are needed to get offshore wind up and running. We surveyed experts across the region, from Northeast Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia, as well as Australia.</p>
<p>We found the experts shared strong support for the use of policy targets. Why? Because policy targets help provide the certainty of an ongoing pipeline for windfarm developers. Other state governments could follow Victoria and use targets to kickstart the offshore wind industry.</p>
<p>Targets alone will not be enough. Our experts singled out streamlined regulation as important. Some European nations have moved to coordinate offshore wind siting, consultation, and project development processes. Japan is now looking to adopt this approach.</p>
<p>At present, developers looking to build offshore wind in Australia will need to navigate different agencies due to separate state and federal responsibilities. Coordination will help provide greater regulatory certainty, combined with careful consultation with local communities. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450882/original/file-20220309-28-12g5r50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450882/original/file-20220309-28-12g5r50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450882/original/file-20220309-28-12g5r50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450882/original/file-20220309-28-12g5r50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450882/original/file-20220309-28-12g5r50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450882/original/file-20220309-28-12g5r50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450882/original/file-20220309-28-12g5r50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450882/original/file-20220309-28-12g5r50.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Expert support for policies to accelerate offshore wind development, separated by turbines mounted on the seabed and tethered floating turbines.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Floating turbine tech has to develop further</h2>
<p>Most of the world’s offshore turbines sit on fixed foundations in waters less than 60 metres deep. </p>
<p>Some of Australia’s best offshore wind resources are located in <a href="https://blueeconomycrc.com.au/projects/offshore-wind-potential-australia/">deeper water</a>. That means we’ll need to use floating turbines, which sit on surface platforms tethered by cable to the seafloor. </p>
<p>This technology isn’t as developed as fixed foundation turbines. As this technology matures and becomes cheaper, it will open up more areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451195/original/file-20220310-23-1ymiurc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Floating wind turbines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451195/original/file-20220310-23-1ymiurc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451195/original/file-20220310-23-1ymiurc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451195/original/file-20220310-23-1ymiurc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451195/original/file-20220310-23-1ymiurc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451195/original/file-20220310-23-1ymiurc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451195/original/file-20220310-23-1ymiurc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451195/original/file-20220310-23-1ymiurc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Floating wind turbines are under development.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Floatgen.jpg">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How can we speed this up? According to the experts we surveyed, we can make costs fall faster through government-backed research and development, as well as supporting commercialisation of newer technologies and processes. </p>
<p>The Victorian government expects local supply chains for this offshore wind rollout will emerge and become a boon to the economy. But why keep this to ourselves? An effective local supply chain would be well placed for the wider Asia Pacific offshore wind market, forecast to <a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3168633/asia-pacific-wind-energy-sector-set-rapid-growth-china-becomes-worlds">grow very strongly</a> this decade. </p>
<h2>We are only at the beginning of offshore wind</h2>
<p>Last year’s federal legislation saw Australia join nations in our region including Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea and China in <a href="https://gwec.net/global-offshore-wind-report-2021/">establishing policy frameworks</a> to support offshore wind power deployment.</p>
<p>It’s unusual to see federal and state governments seeing eye to eye on renewables.
But that’s what we’re starting to see with offshore wind. Last year’s federal legislation has had positive spin-off effects clearly seen in Victoria’s new <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/561400/Offshore-Wind-Policy-Directions-Paper.pdf">vision for the sector</a>. </p>
<p>Victoria’s government believes its mooted offshore wind pipeline will be a major source of new jobs, throughout the project development, construction, and operations phases. </p>
<p>Some of these jobs will be in coal regions such as in the Latrobe Valley, which are beginning to transition away from coal mines and coal power stations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451193/original/file-20220310-14-15tl96s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Technician climbs offshore wind turbine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451193/original/file-20220310-14-15tl96s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451193/original/file-20220310-14-15tl96s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451193/original/file-20220310-14-15tl96s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451193/original/file-20220310-14-15tl96s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451193/original/file-20220310-14-15tl96s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451193/original/file-20220310-14-15tl96s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451193/original/file-20220310-14-15tl96s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Building and maintaining offshore wind will require a supply chain and skilled workers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As you might expect, planning, building and running offshore wind farms is complex, requiring coordinating with other users of ocean resources, measuring wind resources, assessing the potential environmental impact, developing necessary port infrastructure, and securing a connection to the electricity grid. </p>
<p>This means that while federal legislation and state government announcements are vital first steps, they are just the beginning of building the policy framework and supply chains to support a substantial offshore wind industry in Australia. </p>
<p>Is it worth it? Absolutely. Europe’s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/europe-installed-a-record-amount-of-wind-power-in-2021.html">thriving offshore wind market</a> shows us this electricity source is more than capable of competing against other electricity generation sources without subsidies. Offshore wind could also provide renewable electricity to <a href="https://www.anu.edu.au/files/document-collection/2021%2012%20-%20ZCEAP%20Working%20Paper%20-%20Offshore%20hydrogen%2010%20Jan%20%281%29-compressed_0.pdf">produce hydrogen</a>. </p>
<h2>What are the next steps?</h2>
<p>Australia has offshore wind projects already in early development, with the <a href="https://www.starofthesouth.com.au/project-overview">Star of the South</a> off Gippsland the most advanced. If this goes ahead, this 2.2GW project could supply up to 20% of Victoria’s electricity needs. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-turbines-can-breathe-new-life-into-our-warming-seas-177873">Wind turbines can breathe new life into our warming seas</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In Western Australia, a 3GW offshore wind farm has just been proposed. The project’s backers suggest this would be enough to enough to generate up to <a href="http://epbcnotices.environment.gov.au/_entity/annotation/625222a7-ef98-ec11-80d2-00505684c137/a71d58ad-4cba-48b6-8dab-f3091fc31cd5?t=1646092693634">11 TWh of power</a> annually, offsetting around six million tonnes of CO2 emissions each year.</p>
<p>Costs are expected to fall and keep falling, if global deployment of offshore wind increases in line with net zero emissions targets, according to <a href="https://doi.org/10.25919/k4xp-7n26">CSIRO projections</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450883/original/file-20220309-15-8ppqyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450883/original/file-20220309-15-8ppqyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450883/original/file-20220309-15-8ppqyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450883/original/file-20220309-15-8ppqyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450883/original/file-20220309-15-8ppqyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450883/original/file-20220309-15-8ppqyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450883/original/file-20220309-15-8ppqyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450883/original/file-20220309-15-8ppqyq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cost projections for offshore wind.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO Gencost 2021</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is excellent news that offshore wind has begun to gather real momentum. Now is the time to consider measures such as regulatory streamlining, more policy targets to de-risk investments, and investments in research and development. </p>
<p>If we get these in place, offshore wind could become an important part of the energy transition in Australia – and help Australian companies compete internationally for a share of this ballooning new market.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178629/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The financial support of the European Union’s Partnership Instrument is acknowledged for its support for this research. The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of the Australian National University and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union. Llewelyn Hughes provides advice to a number of companies operating in the renewable energy sector in Japan, including in offshore wind. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Longden is a Fellow working on the ANU Energy Change Institute’s Grand Challenge – Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia-Pacific. He receives funding from the US Embassy (Canberra) and the Australian Department of Defence. He is a member of the ACT Climate Change Council. </span></em></p>Australia has finally opened the regulatory doors to offshore wind farms. What do we need to do to make the roll out fast and build supply chains?Llewelyn Hughes, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityThomas Longden, Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1690162021-11-07T19:14:47Z2021-11-07T19:14:47ZScott Morrison is hiding behind future technologies, when we should just deploy what already exists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430568/original/file-20211106-9872-kygarh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C5168%2C3445&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow last week, more than 40 countries <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59159018">pledged</a> to phase out coal-fired power. Some were big coal-using countries such as Poland, Canada and Vietnam – however Australia was not among them. Australia was similarly absent for a methane reduction pledge.</p>
<p>Achieving the Paris Agreement — limiting global warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C — requires the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8">rapid phase out</a> of coal, oil and fossil gas. Failure to do so will <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/barrier-reef-doomed-as-up-to-99-percent-of-coral-at-risk-report-finds-20210331-p57fng.html">spell the end</a> of the Great Barrier Reef and make a large swathe of Australia virtually <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/24/catastrophic-fires-and-devastating-floods-are-part-of-australias-harsh-new-climate-reality">unlivable</a>.</p>
<p>Yet the Morrison government’s technology-driven net-zero “plan” contains no concrete measures to end this fossil fuel addiction. It’s more a placeholder than a strategy, fulfilling the government’s need to have a document to wave around. Meanwhile, the government seems intent on sitting back and letting the future happen, rather than creating it.</p>
<p>I’ve spent 25 years working and investing in technology commercialisation, focusing over the past 15 years on clean technologies. I know Australia doesn’t need to wait for new technology before committing to and achieving deep emissions cuts. Most technologies we need already exist – they just need to be deployed, rapidly and at massive scale. And that requires an <em>actual</em> plan.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="wind farm in field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430569/original/file-20211106-10422-1plrn4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430569/original/file-20211106-10422-1plrn4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430569/original/file-20211106-10422-1plrn4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430569/original/file-20211106-10422-1plrn4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430569/original/file-20211106-10422-1plrn4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430569/original/file-20211106-10422-1plrn4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430569/original/file-20211106-10422-1plrn4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia has the technology for a net-zero future – now it must be deployed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>We have the technology</h2>
<p>The Morrison government’s path to reach net-zero by 2050 relies primarily on technology, but fails to even remotely outline what that would mean in practice.</p>
<p>A total of 70% of the emissions cuts would purportedly be achieved by technology “investment”, “trends” and “breakthroughs”. But it’s not technology per se that reduces emissions, it’s deploying it.</p>
<p>The government missed the opportunity to explain decarbonisation at its simplest: electrify everything we can, and power it with renewables.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-is-climate-change-what-can-we-do/">84% of Australia’s emissions</a> come from activities related to the energy sector. Recent overseas <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abbd02/pdf">analysis</a> shows electrification could replace 78% of energy emissions using established technologies. Add technologies being developed, and the figure rises to 99%.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">Hydrogen</a>, one of the government’s technologies du jour, is likely to play a modest but important role in domestic decarbonisation. And if we don’t get left behind, it could become a significant export earner.</p>
<p>But what’s required in the near term is much more boring: build lots of wind, solar and storage, retire coal and gas as soon as possible, and electrify transport and heating.</p>
<p>Carbon capture and storage (CCS), a favourite of Australian governments for decades, remains a distraction. First, since CCS adds significant cost but no benefit to a process, it will always require either a carbon price or regulations to be viable. Second, while CCS may play a role at the margins in areas where emissions are hard to abate, such as cement production, its only significant role for coal and gas is as a fig leaf for inaction. </p>
<p>Green steel could be a significant opportunity for Australia, given our abundance of iron ore and access to low-cost clean energy. But while Australia <a href="https://www.smart.unsw.edu.au/technologies-products/green-steel">dips a toe</a> in the water, overseas companies like <a href="https://www.ssab.com">SSAB</a> and <a href="https://www.volvoce.com/global/en/news-and-events/press-releases/2021/volvo-launches-worlds-first-vehicle-using-fossil-free-steel/">Volvo</a> are demonstrating that the days of metalurgical coal — one of Australia’s biggest exports — are numbered.</p>
<p>Clearly, the technologies are here. What we need is deployment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="a mining vehicle made from fossil-free steel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430607/original/file-20211107-48235-1c8zm2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430607/original/file-20211107-48235-1c8zm2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430607/original/file-20211107-48235-1c8zm2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430607/original/file-20211107-48235-1c8zm2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430607/original/file-20211107-48235-1c8zm2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430607/original/file-20211107-48235-1c8zm2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430607/original/file-20211107-48235-1c8zm2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Volvo recently produced the first vehicle made from fossil-free or ‘green’ steel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">SSAB</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Learn from Henry Ford</h2>
<p>A decade ago, energy from wind and solar was significantly more expensive than from coal and gas. But renewables are now the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/News-releases/2021/CSIRO-report-confirms-renewables-still-cheapest-new-build-power-in-Australia">cheapest form of new energy</a>, even including additional costs such as energy storage and transmission.</p>
<p>Renewable energy’s fast fall in price was due to a mix of well-designed government policies and massive private investment, both here and around the world.</p>
<p>The Commonwealth’s Renewable Energy Target, for example, required electricity retailers to purchase a small but increasing amount of renewable energy each year, in a way that did <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/myth-busting-does-more-renewable-energy-make-power-prices-go-up-or-down/">not significantly affect</a> energy affordability. With renewables now at a lower cost than new coal and gas, that early investment is paying dividends.</p>
<p>The experience showed we don’t have to wait until technology is cheap and perfect before deploying it. In fact, the only way to make it cheap and perfect is to deploy it, again and again.</p>
<p>When Henry Ford released the <a href="https://corporate.ford.com/articles/history/the-model-t.html">Model T</a> in 1908 his horseless carriage was imperfect and expensive. Yet it kicked off a process of technological improvement in which each successive generation of cars has learnt lessons from those which came before. </p>
<p>If federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor time-travelled back to 1908, would he advise Ford not to release the Model T until it resembled the Tesla Model S?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man stands between two vintage cars" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430570/original/file-20211106-10546-369svb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430570/original/file-20211106-10546-369svb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430570/original/file-20211106-10546-369svb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430570/original/file-20211106-10546-369svb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430570/original/file-20211106-10546-369svb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430570/original/file-20211106-10546-369svb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430570/original/file-20211106-10546-369svb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Henry Ford didn’t wait until the Model T ran like a Tesla before deploying the technology.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ford Motor Co</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Seizing opportunities</h2>
<p>Most economists <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-top-economists-back-carbon-price-say-benefits-of-net-zero-outweigh-cost-169939">agree</a> the most efficient way to reduce emissions is to put a price on carbon and let the market respond. More than a decade of toxic Australian politics has poisoned that well. It leaves policymakers with few tools, and politicians with even fewer ideas.</p>
<p>In the absence of an explicit carbon pricing scheme, the federal government should set clear emissions reduction targets in each sector of the economy. </p>
<p>Monash University’s ClimateWorks has developed a <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/decarbonisation-futures-solutions-actions-and-benchmarks-for-a-net-zero-emissions-australia/">plan</a> for doing so. Such a plan, with an added combination of policy “carrots” (subsidies or incentives) and “sticks” (regulations or taxes) would ensure emissions reduction targets are met.</p>
<p>Our lowest hanging fruit would include a carefully managed coal phase-out and policies to rapidly electrify transport and heating, using existing technologies. This would help us hit meaningful 2030 emissions reduction targets consistent with the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, we sit on the cusp of what is almost certainly Australia’s biggest ever investment opportunity. Our wide brown land is chock full of the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/policies-and-initiatives/critical-minerals-facilitation-office/investing-in-critical-minerals-in-australia">critical minerals</a> needed in a decarbonising world — lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earth metals and silicon. Moreover, our windswept and sun-drenched plains are ready to produce the low-cost energy required to locally transform these raw minerals into valuable refined materials.</p>
<p>Our state governments, some having committed to net-zero five years ago, are making progress – particularly in electricity. But complementary and coordinated policies at the federal level would almost certainly make progress faster — and cheaper.</p>
<p>The coal and methane pledges at COP26 shows many of the world’s most emissions-intensive economies are ready to make the transition. Meanwhile, the federal government’s so-called “plan” prevents Australia from claiming our place in the sun, and wind.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/economists-back-carbon-price-say-benefits-of-net-zero-outweigh-costs-169939">Economists back carbon price, say benefits of net-zero outweigh costs</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169016/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Holmes à Court has indirect stockholdings in numerous domestic and international clean tech and clean infrastructure companies. He is a director of the Smart Energy Council, a peak body for solar, storage, smart-grids and hydrogen. He is also the convenor of Climate 200, a non-profit supporting pro-climate, pro-integrity and pro-gender equity political candidates.</span></em></p>We already have most technologies Australia needs to make the clean energy transition. What’s missing is a plan to deploy them at huge scale.Simon Holmes à Court, Senior advisor, Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1606192021-05-26T06:07:59Z2021-05-26T06:07:59ZA ‘100% renewables’ target might not mean what you think it means. An energy expert explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402756/original/file-20210526-13-10p46nk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C25%2C4272%2C2813&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the global effort to transition from fossil fuels to clean energy, achieving a “100% renewables” electricity system is considered ideal. </p>
<p>Some Australian states have committed to 100% renewable energy targets, or even <a href="http://www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/renewable_energy_target_to_deliver_for_tasmania">200% renewable energy targets</a>. But this doesn’t mean their electricity is, or will be, emissions free. </p>
<p>Electricity is responsible for a <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-update-september-2020">third of Australia’s emissions</a>, and making it cleaner is a key way to reduce emissions in other sectors that rely on it, such as transport. </p>
<p>So it’s important we have clarity about where our electricity comes from, and how emissions-intensive it is. Let’s look at what 100% renewables actually implies in detail. </p>
<h2>Is 100% renewables realistic?</h2>
<p>Achieving 100% renewables is one way of eliminating emissions from the electricity sector. </p>
<p>It’s commonly interpreted to mean all electricity must be generated from renewable sources. These sources usually include solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal, and exclude nuclear energy and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage.</p>
<p>But this is a very difficult feat for individual states and territories to try to achieve.</p>
<p>The term “net 100% renewables” more accurately describes what some jurisdictions — such as South Australia and the ACT — are targeting, whether or not they’ve explicitly said so. </p>
<p>These targets don’t require that all electricity people use within the jurisdiction come from renewable sources. Some might come from coal or gas-fired generation, but the government offsets this amount by making or buying an equivalent amount of renewable electricity.</p>
<p>A net 100% renewables target allows a state to spruik its green credentials without needing to worry about the reliability implications of being totally self-reliant on renewable power. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402757/original/file-20210526-15-aqvvw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Solar panels on roofs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402757/original/file-20210526-15-aqvvw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402757/original/file-20210526-15-aqvvw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402757/original/file-20210526-15-aqvvw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402757/original/file-20210526-15-aqvvw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402757/original/file-20210526-15-aqvvw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402757/original/file-20210526-15-aqvvw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402757/original/file-20210526-15-aqvvw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">East coast states are connected to the National Electricity Market.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>So how does ‘net’ 100% renewables work?</h2>
<p>All east coast states are connected to the National Electricity Market (NEM) — a system that allows electricity to be generated, used and shared across borders. This means individual states can achieve “net 100% renewables” without the renewable generation needing to occur when or where the electricity is required. </p>
<p>Take the ACT, for example, which has used <a href="https://www.environment.act.gov.au/energy/cleaner-energy">net 100% renewable electricity</a> since October 2019. </p>
<p>The ACT government buys renewable energy from generators outside the territory, which is then mostly used in other states, such as Victoria and South Australia. Meanwhile, people living in ACT rely on power from NSW that’s not emissions-free, because it largely comes from coal-fired power stations.</p>
<p>This way, the ACT government can claim net 100% renewables because it’s offsetting the non-renewable energy its residents use with the clean energy it’s paid for elsewhere. </p>
<p>SA’s target is to reach net 100% renewables <a href="http://www.renewablessa.sa.gov.au/topic/hydrogen">by the 2030s</a>. Unlike the ACT, it plans to generate renewable electricity locally, equal to 100% of its annual demand. </p>
<p>At times, such as especially sunny days, some of that electricity will be exported to other states. At other times, such as when the wind drops off, SA may need to rely on electricity imports from other states, which probably won’t come from all-renewable sources.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-coal-fired-power-or-100-renewables-for-the-next-few-decades-both-paths-are-wrong-158529">More coal-fired power or 100% renewables? For the next few decades, both paths are wrong</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>So what happens if all states commit to net 100% renewable energy targets? Then, the National Electricity Market will have a de-facto 100% renewable energy target — no “net”.</p>
<p>That’s because the market is one entire system, so its only options are “100% renewables” (implying zero emissions), or “less than 100% renewables”. The “net” factor doesn’t come into it, because there’s no other part of the grid for it to buy from or sell to.</p>
<h2>How do you get to “200% renewables”, or more?</h2>
<p>It’s mathematically impossible for more than 100% of the electricity used in the NEM to come from renewable sources: 100% is the limit. </p>
<p>Any target of more than 100% renewables is a different calculation. The target is no longer a measure of renewable generation versus all generation, but renewable generation versus today’s demand. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402777/original/file-20210526-23-1raikni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Gas plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402777/original/file-20210526-23-1raikni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402777/original/file-20210526-23-1raikni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402777/original/file-20210526-23-1raikni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402777/original/file-20210526-23-1raikni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402777/original/file-20210526-23-1raikni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402777/original/file-20210526-23-1raikni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402777/original/file-20210526-23-1raikni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia could generate several times more renewable energy than there is demand today, but still use a small and declining amount of fossil fuels during rare weather events.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tasmania, for example, has legislated <a href="http://www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/renewable_energy_target_to_deliver_for_tasmania">a target of 200%</a> renewable energy by 2040. This means it wants to produce twice as much renewable electricity as it consumes today. </p>
<p>But this doesn’t necessarily imply all electricity consumed in Tasmania will be renewable. For example, it may continue to import some non-renewable power from Victoria at times, such as during droughts when Tasmania’s hydro dams are constrained. It may even need to burn a small amount of gas as a backup. </p>
<p>This means the 200% renewable energy target is really a “net 200% renewables” target.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Greens are campaigning for <a href="https://greens.org.au/sites/default/files/2021-03/2021-Greens-Fight_for_the_Future.pdf?utm_source=goa&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=future&utm_content=download">700% renewables</a>. This, too, is based on today’s electricity demand. </p>
<p>In the future, demand could be much higher due to electrifying our transport, switching appliances from gas to electricity, and potentially exporting <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-want-industry-and-theyd-like-it-green-steel-is-the-place-to-start-137999">energy-intensive, renewable commodities</a> such as green hydrogen or ammonia. </p>
<h2>Targeting net-zero emissions</h2>
<p>These “more than 100% renewables” targets set by individual jurisdictions don’t necessarily imply all electricity Australians use will be emissions free. </p>
<p>It’s possible — and potentially more economical — that we would meet almost all of this additional future demand with renewable energy, but keep some gas or diesel capacity as a low-cost backstop. </p>
<p>This would ensure continued electricity supply during rare, sustained periods of <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-coal-fired-power-or-100-renewables-for-the-next-few-decades-both-paths-are-wrong-158529">low wind, low sun, and high demand</a>, such as during a cloudy, windless week in winter. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carry-over-credits-and-carbon-offsets-are-hot-topics-this-election-but-what-do-they-actually-mean-116748">Carry-over credits and carbon offsets are hot topics this election – but what do they actually mean?</a>
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<p>The energy transition is harder near the end — each percentage point between 90% and 100% renewables is more expensive to achieve than the previous. </p>
<p>That’s why, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/go-for-net-zero/">in a recent report from the Grattan Institute</a>, we recommended governments pursue net-zero emissions in the electricity sector first, rather than setting 100% renewables targets today.</p>
<p>For example, buying <a href="https://theconversation.com/carry-over-credits-and-carbon-offsets-are-hot-topics-this-election-but-what-do-they-actually-mean-116748">carbon credits</a> to offset the small amount of emissions produced in a 90% renewable NEM is likely to be cheaper in the medium term than building enough energy storage — such as batteries or pumped hydro dams — to backup wind and solar at all times. </p>
<p>The bottom line is governments and companies must say what they mean and mean what they say when announcing targets. It’s the responsibility of media and pundits to take care when interpreting them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160619/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p>Some Australian states have committed to 100% renewable energy targets, or even 200% renewable energy targets. But this doesn’t mean their electricity is, or will be, emissions free.James Ha, Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1537892021-02-25T04:12:42Z2021-02-25T04:12:42ZAgainst the odds, South Australia is a renewable energy powerhouse. How on Earth did they do it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386351/original/file-20210225-19-v2qdc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C23%2C5168%2C3422&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Less than two decades ago, South Australia generated all its electricity from fossil fuels. Last year, renewables provided a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/24/south-australias-clean-energy-shift-brings-lowest-power-prices-on-national-grid-audit-finds">whopping 60%</a> of the state’s electricity supply. The remarkable progress came as national climate policy was gripped by paralysis – so how did it happen?</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520306510">research</a> set out to answer this question. We analysed policy documents and interviewed major actors in South Australia’s energy transition, to determine why it worked when so many others fail.</p>
<p>We found governments need enough political power to push through changes despite opposition from established fossil fuel interests. They must also watch the energy market closely to prevent and respond to major disruptions, such as a coal plant closing, and help displaced workers and their towns deal with the change.</p>
<p>South Australia shows how good public policy can enable dramatic emissions reduction, even in a privately owned electricity system. This provides important lessons for other governments in Australia and across the world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Artist impression of SA solar plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386353/original/file-20210225-15-nqj4b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386353/original/file-20210225-15-nqj4b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386353/original/file-20210225-15-nqj4b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386353/original/file-20210225-15-nqj4b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386353/original/file-20210225-15-nqj4b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386353/original/file-20210225-15-nqj4b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386353/original/file-20210225-15-nqj4b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">South Australia is a world leader in renewables deployment. Pictured: artist impression of solar thermal plant proposed for the state.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Solar Thermal Power Plant</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why is the energy transition so hard?</h2>
<p>In decades past, fossil-fuel-dominated energy markets revolved around a few big, powerful players such as electricity generators and retailers. Overhauling such a system <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629617303092">inevitably disrupts</a> these incumbents and redistributes benefits, such as commercial returns, to newer entrants. </p>
<p>This can create powerful - and often vocal – losers, and lead to political problems for governments. The changes can also cause hardship for communities, which can be rallied to derail the transition.</p>
<p>The change is even harder in a privatised energy market, such as South Australia’s, where electricity generators and other players must stay profitable to survive. In the renewables shift, fossil fuel businesses can quickly become commercially unviable and close. This risks supply shortages, as well as <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/news-release/wholesale-electricity-prices-higher-since-hazelwood-exit">price increases</a> like those after Victoria’s Hazelwood coal plant <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-18/hazelwood-power-station-closure-two-years-on/10908866">closed</a> in 2017.</p>
<p>The obstacles help explain why a wealthy nation such as Australia, with extremely high per capita emissions and cheap, plentiful renewable resources, has struggled to embrace its clean energy potential. Even frontrunners in environmental policy, such as <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-struggling-energy-transition-the-broken-promise-of-wind-power/av-54521658">Germany</a>, have struggled to make the switch.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-push-to-carve-farming-from-a-net-zero-target-is-misguided-and-dangerous-154822">Nationals' push to carve farming from a net-zero target is misguided and dangerous</a>
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</em>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Coal workers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386355/original/file-20210225-13-1qyvrjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386355/original/file-20210225-13-1qyvrjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386355/original/file-20210225-13-1qyvrjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386355/original/file-20210225-13-1qyvrjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386355/original/file-20210225-13-1qyvrjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386355/original/file-20210225-13-1qyvrjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386355/original/file-20210225-13-1qyvrjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal workers and their communities must be assisted during the renewables transition.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How South Australia did it</h2>
<p>South Australia is a dry state – extremely vulnerable to climate change – with abundant wind and solar resources. These factors gave it the motivation and means to transition to renewables.</p>
<p>The South Australian Labor government, elected in 2002, adopted <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520306510?dgcid=rss_sd_all">a target</a> for 26% renewables generation by 2020. At the time, wind energy was already a competitive supplier of new generation capacity in Europe, creating an established wind farm industry looking to invest.</p>
<p>Some of South Australia’s best onshore wind potential was located near transmission lines running 300 kilometres from Port Augusta to Adelaide. This greatly reduced the cost of connecting new wind generators to the grid. </p>
<p>South Australia benefited greatly from the federal <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET">renewable energy target</a>, established by the Howard government in 2001 and expanded under the Rudd government. </p>
<p>The scheme meant the South Australian government didn’t need to offer its own incentives to meet its renewables target – it just had to be more attractive to private investors than other states. This was a relatively easy task. Under the state Labor government, South Australia’s energy and environment policy was consistent and coordinated, in contrast to the weak and inconsistent policies federally, and in other states.</p>
<p>To attract renewable energy investors, the government <a href="http://www.renewablessa.sa.gov.au/topic/large-scale-generation-storage/wind-farm-planning-policy">made laws</a> to help construct wind farms in rural zones away from towns and homes. New wind farms were regularly underwritten by state government <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/media-centre/asx-and-media-releases/2009/september/south-australian-desalination-renewable-energy-contract-underlines-strength-of-agls-position">supply contracts</a>. </p>
<p>As the transition progressed, the state’s largest coal generator, at Port Augusta, was wound back and eventually closed. To help workers and the town adjust, the state government supported employment alternatives, including a <a href="https://newsouthaustralia.com/news/sundrop-farms/">A$6 million</a> grant towards a solar-powered <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-01/sundrop-farms-opens-solar-greenhouse-using-no-fresh-water/7892866">greenhouse</a> employing 220 people.</p>
<p>The Labor government enjoyed a long incumbency, and the state was not heavily reliant on the export of fossil fuels. This helped give it the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516302634">political leverage</a> to push through change in the face of opposition from vested interests.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-point-protesting-australia-faces-carbon-levies-unless-it-changes-course-155200">No point protesting, Australia faces carbon levies unless it changes course</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Worker walks through greenhouse" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386354/original/file-20210225-19-fbexgo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386354/original/file-20210225-19-fbexgo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386354/original/file-20210225-19-fbexgo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386354/original/file-20210225-19-fbexgo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386354/original/file-20210225-19-fbexgo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386354/original/file-20210225-19-fbexgo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386354/original/file-20210225-19-fbexgo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A state government grant helped establish a solar greenhouse.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sundrop Farms</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It’s not easy being green</h2>
<p>South Australia’s transition was not without controversy. Between 2014 and 2018, the state’s consumer electricity prices <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/State%20of%20the%20Energy%20Market%202018%20-%20Full%20report%20A4_2.pdf">rose sharply</a>. While critics <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-13/sa-liberals-pledge-to-scrap-renewable-target/8264704">sought to blame</a> the increasing renewables share, it was largely due to other factors. These include South Australia’s continued reliance on <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-had-lowest-cost-of-supply-in-main-grid-in-october-25382/">expensive gas-fired power</a> and the <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/AER%20electricity%20wholesale%20performance%20monitoring%20-%20Hazelwood%20advice%20-%20March%202018_0.PDF">closure of the Hazelwood</a> coal-fired power station in neighbouring Victoria, which fed large amounts of power into South Australia.</p>
<p>And in late 2016, South Australia suffered a statewide blackout. Again, renewables were <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/climate/south-australian-blackout-a-wakeup-call-says-turnbull/news-story/ebfc366dafb171e9542e91132d4fe4ed">blamed</a>, when the disaster was in fact <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/29/south-australia-blackout-explained-renewables-not-to-blame">due to</a> storm damage and <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Market_Notices_and_Events/Power_System_Incident_Reports/2017/Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016.pdf">overly sensitive</a> trip switches.</p>
<p>After a second, smaller blackout six months later, the then federal treasurer Scott Morrison brought a lump of coal into parliament and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/09/nsw-power-shortage-warning-after-revelation-sa-blackouts-forecast-hours-beforehand">argued</a> South Australia’s renewables transition was:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>…switching off jobs, switching off lights and switching off air conditioners and forcing Australian families to boil in the dark as a result of their Dark Ages policies.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In 2018, Labor lost office to a Liberal party <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-13/sa-liberals-pledge-to-scrap-renewable-target/8264704">highly critical</a> of the renewables transition in opposition. But by then, the transition was well advanced. In our view, specific legislation would have been required to halt it.</p>
<p>The state Liberal government has now <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-set-sights-on-stunning-new-target-of-500-pct-renewables-97917/">firmly embraced</a> the renewables transition, setting a target for 100% renewable electricity by 2030. By 2050, the government says, renewables could generate 500% of the state’s energy needs, with the surplus exported nationally and internationally.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Scott Morrison, holding a lump of coal" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386350/original/file-20210225-15-i6ulpq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386350/original/file-20210225-15-i6ulpq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386350/original/file-20210225-15-i6ulpq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386350/original/file-20210225-15-i6ulpq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386350/original/file-20210225-15-i6ulpq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386350/original/file-20210225-15-i6ulpq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386350/original/file-20210225-15-i6ulpq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scott Morrison, holding a lump of coal in Parliament, said SA’s renewables policy took the state back to the Dark Ages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Leading the world</h2>
<p>The South Australia experience shows a successful renewables transition requires that governments:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>have enough political power to advance policies that disadvantage energy incumbents</p></li>
<li><p>monitor the energy market and respond proactively to disruptions </p></li>
<li><p>limit damage to displaced workers, businesses, consumers and communities.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>It also highlights the importance of having transmission infrastructure near renewable resources before new generators are built. </p>
<p>As energy markets the world over grapple with making the clean energy transition, South Australia proves it can be done.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-texas-deep-freeze-left-the-state-in-crisis-here-are-3-lessons-for-australia-155760">The Texas deep freeze left the state in crisis. Here are 3 lessons for Australia</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153789/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Australian Research Council </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fran Baum receives funding from the ARC NHMRC and MRFF</span></em></p>Last year, renewables provided a whopping 60% of South Australia’s electricity supplies. The remarkable progress came as national climate policy was gripped by paralysis – so how did it happen?Michael McGreevy, Research Associate, Flinders UniversityFran Baum, Matthew Flinders Distinguished Professor, Foundation Director, Southgate Institute for Health, Society & Equity, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1236942019-09-24T20:15:10Z2019-09-24T20:15:10ZAustralia is the runaway global leader in building new renewable energy<p>In Australia, renewable energy is growing at a per capita rate ten times faster than the world average. Between 2018 and 2020, Australia will install more than 16 gigawatts of wind and solar, an average rate of 220 watts per person per year. </p>
<p>This is nearly three times faster than the next fastest country, Germany. Australia is demonstrating to the world how rapidly an industrialised country with a fossil-fuel-dominated electricity system can transition towards low-carbon, renewable power generation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renewable energy capacity installations per capita.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">International capacity data for 2018 from the International Renewable Energy Agency. Australian data from the Clean Energy Regulator.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When the <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/About/Pages/News%20and%20updates/NewsItem.aspx?ListId=19b4efbb-6f5d-4637-94c4-121c1f96fcfe&ItemId=683">Clean Energy Regulator accredited</a> Tasmania’s 148.5 megawatt (MW) Cattle Hill Wind Farm in August, Australia met its <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/Pages/News%20and%20updates/NewsItem.aspx?ListId=19b4efbb-6f5d-4637-94c4-121c1f96fcfe&ItemId=683">Renewable Energy Target</a> well ahead of schedule.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-met-its-renewable-energy-target-but-dont-pop-the-champagne-122939">Australia has met its renewable energy target. But don’t pop the champagne</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We have <a href="https://energy.anu.edu.au/files/Renewable%20energy%20target%20report%20September%202019_1_0.pdf">analysed</a> data from the regulator which tracks large- and small-scale renewable energy generation (including credible future projects), and found the record-high installation rates of 2018 will continue through 2019 and 2020.</p>
<h2>Record renewable energy installation rates</h2>
<p>While <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-met-its-renewable-energy-target-but-dont-pop-the-champagne-122939">other analyses</a> have pointed out that investment dollars in renewable energy fell in 2019, actual <em>generation capacity</em> has risen. Reductions in building costs may be contributing, as less investment will buy you more capacity.</p>
<p>Last year was a record year for renewable energy installations, with 5.1 gigawatts (GW) accredited in 2018, far exceeding the previous record of 2.2GW in 2017. </p>
<p>The increase was driven by the dramatic rise of large-scale solar farms, which comprised half of the new-build capacity accredited in 2018. There was a tenfold increase in solar farm construction from 2017.</p>
<p>We have projected the remaining builds for 2019 and those for 2020, based on data from the Clean Energy Regulator for public firm announcements for projects. </p>
<p>A project is considered firm if it has a power purchase agreement (PPA, a contract to sell the energy generated), has reached financial close, or is under construction. We assume six months for financial close and start of construction after a long-term supply contract is signed, and 12 or 18 months for solar farm or wind farm construction, respectively.</p>
<p>This year is on track to be another record year, with 6.5GW projected to be complete by the end of 2019. </p>
<p>The increase is largely attributable to a significant increase in the number of wind farms approaching completion. Rooftop solar has also increased, with current installation rates putting Australia on track for 1.9GW in 2019, also a new record. </p>
<p>This is attributed to the continued cost reductions in rooftop solar, with less than A$1,000 per kilowatt now considered routine and payback periods of the order of two to seven years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Current (solid) and forecast (hashed) installations of renewable electricity capacity in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Looking ahead to 2020, almost 6GW of large-scale projects are expected to be completed, comprising 2.5GW of solar farms and 3.5GW of wind. Around the end of 2020, this additional generation would deliver the old Renewable Energy Target of 41,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) per annum. That target was legislated in 2009 by the Rudd Labor government but <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/RenewableEnergy">reduced to 33,000GWh</a> by the Abbott Coalition government in 2015. </p>
<h2>Maintaining the pipeline</h2>
<p>There are strong prospects for continued high installation rates of renewables. Currently available renewable energy contracts are routinely offering <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/snowy-says-cost-of-firm-wind-and-solar-significantly-below-current-base-load-prices-76846/">less than A$50 per MWh</a>. Long-term contracts for future energy supply have an average price of more than A$58 per MWh. This is a very reasonable profit margin, suggesting a <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/products/energy-derivatives/australian-electricity.htm">strong economic case</a> for continued installations. Wind and solar prices are likely to decline further throughout the 2020s.</p>
<p>State governments programs are also supporting renewable electricity growth. The ACT has completed contracts for 100% renewable electricity. Victoria and Queensland both have renewable energy targets of 50% renewable electricity by 2030. South Australia is expecting to reach 100% by 2025. </p>
<p>The main impediment to continued renewables growth is transmission. Transmission constraints have resulted in bottlenecks in moving electricity from some wind and solar farms to cities. </p>
<p>Tasmania’s strong wind resource requires a new connection to the mainland to unlock more projects. The limitations of current planning frameworks for this transition were recognised in Chief Scientist Alan Finkel’s review of the National Electricity Market, with strong recommendations to overcome these problems and, in particular, to <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/independent-review-future-security-national-electricity-market-blueprint-future">strengthen the role of the Australian Energy Market Operator</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-a-100-renewable-energy-future-can-create-jobs-and-even-save-the-gas-industry-110285">Here's how a 100% renewable energy future can create jobs and even save the gas industry</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Now we need state and federal governments to unlock or directly support transmission expansion. For example, the <a href="https://www.dnrme.qld.gov.au/energy/initiatives/poweringqueensland#targetText=The%20Powering%20Queensland%20Plan%20sets,and%20secure%%2020supply%20of%20electricity">Queensland government</a> has committed to supporting new transmission to unlock solar and wind projects in the far north, including the Genex/Kidston 250MW pumped hydro storage system. The New South Wales government will expedite planning approval for an <a href="https://www.transgrid.com.au/news-views/news/2019/Pages/Project-EnergyConnect-deemed-critical-infrastructure-in-NSW.aspx">interconnector</a> between that state and South Australia, defining it as “critical infrastructure”.</p>
<p>These investments are key to Australia maintaining its renewable energy leadership into the next decade.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123694/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Stocks receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and similar bodies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ken Baldwin receives funding from the Australian Research Council </span></em></p>Australia is installing renewable energy at more than ten times the global average. This is excellent news, but raises serious questions about integrating this electricity into our grids.Matthew Stocks, Research Fellow, ANU College of Engineering and Computer Science, Australian National UniversityAndrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityKen Baldwin, Director, Energy Change Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1229392019-09-06T06:02:34Z2019-09-06T06:02:34ZAustralia has met its renewable energy target. But don’t pop the champagne<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291220/original/file-20190906-175700-83wrpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wind energy has played a major role in Australia's fulfilment of the renewable energy target</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Olivier Hoslet/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A wind farm project in Tasmania this week helped Australia reach something of a milestone, nudging it over the line to reach its renewable energy target.</p>
<p>The Clean Energy Regulator announced it had approved capacity from the 148.5 megawatt Cattle Hill wind farm project, meaning the nation’s <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/About/Pages/News%20and%20updates/NewsItem.aspx?ListId=19b4efbb-6f5d-4637-94c4-121c1f96fcfe&ItemId=683">Large-scale Renewable Energy Target will be fulfilled</a>. </p>
<p>Federal energy and emissions reduction minister Angus Taylor seized on the development, suggesting it showed the government’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-to-hit-2020-large-scale-renewable-target-ahead-of-schedule-20190903-p52nj3.html">record investment in renewable energy</a> was world-leading. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291221/original/file-20190906-175663-3u0o72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291221/original/file-20190906-175663-3u0o72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291221/original/file-20190906-175663-3u0o72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291221/original/file-20190906-175663-3u0o72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291221/original/file-20190906-175663-3u0o72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291221/original/file-20190906-175663-3u0o72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291221/original/file-20190906-175663-3u0o72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor said renewables investment would continue to grow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Taylor has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/angus-taylor-confirms-government-won-t-be-replacing-renewable-energy-target-20180918-p504j1.html">previously declared</a> his government will not extend the target - the primary national mechanism supporting renewable energy. But this week he insisted “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-to-hit-2020-large-scale-renewable-target-ahead-of-schedule-20190903-p52nj3.html">investment is not slowing down</a>”.</p>
<p>This bold claim flies in the face of the evidence. Investment in new renewable energy capacity <em>is</em> slowing down. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291055/original/file-20190905-175710-7603eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291055/original/file-20190905-175710-7603eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291055/original/file-20190905-175710-7603eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291055/original/file-20190905-175710-7603eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291055/original/file-20190905-175710-7603eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291055/original/file-20190905-175710-7603eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291055/original/file-20190905-175710-7603eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291055/original/file-20190905-175710-7603eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Losing momentum: Australian renewables investment has cooled in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bloomberg New Energy Finance</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The latest data from <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-01/creaking-grid-is-jamming-up-australia-s-switch-to-green-energy">Bloomberg New Energy Finance</a> clearly shows a 21% drop in investment from the 2018 to 2019 financial years. </p>
<p>As Australia’s emissions reduction task becomes ever more urgent, the investment downturn begs the question: what happens next?</p>
<h2>In fact, Australia cruised over the line</h2>
<p>It is ironic that the Morrison government rushed to claim a win on the renewable energy target when many in the Coalition had claimed it would be difficult to meet, or wanted it scrapped altogether. </p>
<p>The policy involved <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/government/renewable-energy-target-scheme">tradeable certificates which created a financial incentive</a> for new or expanded renewable energy power stations, such as wind and solar farms.</p>
<p>Under the target just met, 33 terrawatt-hours (TWh) of Australia’s electricity would be produced by new renewables by 2020, bringing the total share of renewable energy to about 23.5%.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291225/original/file-20190906-175710-4381e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291225/original/file-20190906-175710-4381e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291225/original/file-20190906-175710-4381e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291225/original/file-20190906-175710-4381e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291225/original/file-20190906-175710-4381e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291225/original/file-20190906-175710-4381e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291225/original/file-20190906-175710-4381e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mount Majura Solar farm near Canberra.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lucas Cochleae</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/at-its-current-rate-australia-is-on-track-for-50-renewable-electricity-in-2025-102903">At its current rate, Australia is on track for 50% renewable electricity in 2025</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The target was <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22library%2Fpartypol%2F5VRO6%22;src1=sm1">established by the Rudd Labor government</a>and overhauled by the Abbott Coalition government after it came to power. It commissioned a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/ret-reviewer-dick-warburton-im-not-a-climate-sceptic/news-story/5b02d71333655e924085a89fc07376f0">contentious review</a> of the target, then in 2015 reduced it to 33TWh after <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-18/breakthrough-in-renewable-energy-target-deal/6477748">protracted negotiations with Labor</a>.</p>
<p>As it transpired, that target was easily met. But the then industry minister Ian Macfarlane described the task as an “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2015/s4238106.htm">enormous challege</a>”, and industry figures suggested the required wind energy was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2015/s4238106.htm">“almost impossible”</a>. Even Taylor initially said the target was “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/energy-regulator-predicts-australia-will-hit-target-2020/11476920">too high</a>”.</p>
<p>The cut itself was bad enough for the renewable energy industry. But the uncertainty created during the review devastated investment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291057/original/file-20190905-175696-19nztdh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291057/original/file-20190905-175696-19nztdh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291057/original/file-20190905-175696-19nztdh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291057/original/file-20190905-175696-19nztdh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291057/original/file-20190905-175696-19nztdh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291057/original/file-20190905-175696-19nztdh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291057/original/file-20190905-175696-19nztdh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renewable energy investment in Australia. There was a drop in investment during the review of the target, and a significant uptick once the bipartisan ship and a new target was restored. [Available from: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-18/renewable-energy-investment-in-australia/9339350]</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">BNEF</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Investment did boom following bipartisan support for the new, lower target. But we can only speculate what may have been possible without the uncertainty created by the review. </p>
<h2>It’s not looking rosy for renewables</h2>
<p>The drop-off in investment is a worrying trend for the renewable energy industry, and for climate action more broadly. We can expect a drop-off in new additions in capacity in line with the drop in investment.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291058/original/file-20190905-175673-17mj7ef.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291058/original/file-20190905-175673-17mj7ef.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291058/original/file-20190905-175673-17mj7ef.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291058/original/file-20190905-175673-17mj7ef.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291058/original/file-20190905-175673-17mj7ef.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291058/original/file-20190905-175673-17mj7ef.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291058/original/file-20190905-175673-17mj7ef.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291058/original/file-20190905-175673-17mj7ef.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australian Energy Market Commission data showing committed renewable energy projects for the next 12-18 months.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The table above shows the current committed projects for next 12-18 months. While more projects are likely to be committed over the next 18 months, it’s hard to see the peak of 2018 repeated soon, particularly with investment dropping away. </p>
<p>The achievement of the renewable energy target leaves a federal policy void. Renewable energy may now be the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2018/Annual-update-finds-renewables-are-cheapest-new-build-power">lowest-cost source of new electricity supply</a>. But it is competing against assets such as coal-fired power stations with sunk costs - meaning that new renewables projects are essentially competing only with a coal plant’s fuel costs. Absent a price on carbon or similar policy, coal assets are allowed to pollute the atmosphere for free. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291230/original/file-20190906-175705-1hjl4ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291230/original/file-20190906-175705-1hjl4ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291230/original/file-20190906-175705-1hjl4ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291230/original/file-20190906-175705-1hjl4ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291230/original/file-20190906-175705-1hjl4ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291230/original/file-20190906-175705-1hjl4ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291230/original/file-20190906-175705-1hjl4ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The renewable energy target has helped displace fossil fuel-derived power from the electricity mix.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-australia-a-renewable-energy-exporting-superpower-107285">Making Australia a renewable energy exporting superpower</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>There are lessons to be learned from Germany to ensure a less bumpy transition to a decarbonised electricity sector. “<a href="https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/blob/610620/5d9bfec0ab35695b9db548d10c94e57d/the-german-energiewende-data.pdf">Deployment corridors</a>” help make the development of renewable energy sources more predictable, improve integration into the power system, and keep additional costs to consumers manageable. </p>
<p>But unless emissions-intensive generation closes or renewable energy support is reintroduced, renewable energy expansion in Australia is unlikely to proceed at the pace required to meet the Paris targets. Keeping the global average temperature rise well below 2°C requires “<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2/">rapid and profound near-term decarbonisation of energy supply</a>” and strong upscaling of renewables. </p>
<p>The states are attempting to fill the federal policy gap. Several have their own renewable energy support schemes and all states in the east coast’s National Electricity Market have committed to net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291233/original/file-20190906-175691-jshe4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291233/original/file-20190906-175691-jshe4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291233/original/file-20190906-175691-jshe4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291233/original/file-20190906-175691-jshe4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291233/original/file-20190906-175691-jshe4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291233/original/file-20190906-175691-jshe4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291233/original/file-20190906-175691-jshe4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A coal station in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Continued renewables growth also requires <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/market-reviews-advice/coordination-generation-and-transmission-investment-implementation-access-and">transmission infrastructure</a> and storage technologies to ensure the distributed energy can be delivered where it is needed, and that reliability is maintained. Several states have also <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2019/9/4/power-package-fires-up-nq-renewables">recently committed</a> resources to transmission investment. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/clean-green-machines-the-truth-about-electric-vehicle-emissions-122619">Clean, green machines: the truth about electric vehicle emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The state-led action calls into question the effectiveness of the Council of Australian Governments’ (COAG) energy council. The group comprises the nation’s energy ministers and claims to maintain national “<a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/about-us/our-role">policy leadership</a>” on energy. However it hasn’t met in almost nine months and its <a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/sites/prod.energycouncil/files/publications/documents/Australian%20Energy%20Market%20Agreement%20-%20Dec%202013_1.pdf">overarching agreement</a> is more then 15 years old, and doesn’t refer to environmental outcomes or emissions cuts.</p>
<p>A new direction for the council is probably wishful thinking in the current political environment. But as emissions continue to rise in Australia, the need for significant reform only intensifies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122939/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan McConnell has received funding from the AEMC's Consumer Advocacy Panel and Energy Consumers Australia.</span></em></p>The federal government this week heralded Australia’s renewable energy performance. But the outlook leaves little cause for celebration.Dylan McConnell, Researcher at the Australian German Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1057832018-11-09T11:46:28Z2018-11-09T11:46:28ZAmericans got to vote on lots of energy measures in 2018 – and mostly rejected them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244660/original/file-20181108-74766-adwwou.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters in Nevada voted to boost their state's renewable energy target.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Worlds-Largest-Solar-Plant-/eab310e2ebba43b0ae4141503e1ff3cb/42/0">AP Photo/Chris Carlson</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Americans in at least seven states voted on <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/4-states-have-ballot-measures-that-could-shape-u-s-climate-policy/">ballot initiatives</a> during the 2018 midterm elections. These measures targeted everything from raising targets for the share of electricity drawn from renewable energy to charging a tax on carbon emissions.</p>
<p>Campaigns to defeat these <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Energy_on_the_ballot#By_year">initiatives related to energy and climate policy</a>, financed heavily by <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/11/7/18069940/election-results-2018-energy-carbon-fracking-ballot-initiatives">big oil and gas companies</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/11/7/18069940/election-results-2018-energy-carbon-fracking-ballot-initiatives">utilities</a>, substantially outspent proponents. They prevailed in nearly every case. At the same time, however, voters elected many politicians who had vowed to take action to reduce the country’s carbon footprint. Those leaders could potentially bring on the same kinds of policies through other means.</p>
<p>Like most <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TxYfplkAAAAJ&hl=en">environmental economists</a>, I believe that strong policies can help rein in climate change. And, I believe that market-based policies like a carbon tax are the best way to do that. But following the 2018 midterms, it might be the case that advocates of these policies will need to stick to backing politicians who will implement them directly rather than trying to effect change with ballot initiatives.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1057058249021775872"}"></div></p>
<h2>No national leadership</h2>
<p>Since climate change is a global issue, it may seem odd that American states, counties and cities are forging their own policies to address it. In other countries, national authorities typically take the lead on this priority.</p>
<p>But the federal government has failed to address climate change even though the Environmental Protection Agency has effectively been obligated to regulate greenhouse gases for the past decade due to the <a href="https://www.edf.org/overview-epa-endangerment-finding">Supreme Court’s “endangerment” finding</a> that those emissions are pollutants that must be regulated under the Clean Air Act.</p>
<p>After Congress failed in its attempt to pass comprehensive climate legislation during former President Barack Obama’s administration, he bypassed lawmakers and relied on an executive order to establish his <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-things-that-you-should-know-about-the-epa-clean-power-plan-45677">Clean Power Plan</a>, which would have regulated carbon dioxide. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/15/politics/trump-climate-change/index.html">President Donald Trump</a>, who recently said of climate change that he doesn’t “know that it’s manmade” and that he believes it will “change back again,” has basically ended all federal climate action by <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-tears-down-us-climate-policy-but-america-could-lose-out-as-a-result-75391">dismantling the Clean Power Plan</a> and deciding to pull out of the Paris climate deal.</p>
<p>Many states are filling this climate leadership vacuum. California, for example, is committed to becoming <a href="https://theconversation.com/california-aims-to-become-carbon-free-by-2045-is-that-feasible-102390">completely carbon-neutral by 2045</a>.</p>
<p>But not all states are moving quickly enough in this direction, climate activists fear. Voter-driven initiatives are one solution to this problem. These measures are proliferating based on a simple premise: Perhaps giving citizens a say at the ballot box will force state policymakers and legislators to adopt regulations that can meaningfully and swiftly reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. </p>
<h2>Climate policies</h2>
<p>As an economist, I see pollution as a classic case of market failure. That is, unless the authorities regulate carbon pollution, the market will produce too much of it. Because that excess pollution will contribute to climate change, it will ultimately end up damaging the economy.</p>
<p>Furthermore, there is also a strong economic argument to be made in favor of policies like Washington’s carbon tax. Some economists call these types of policies “<a href="https://ieamblog.com/2017/10/06/market-based-environmental-policies-providing-incentives-that-minimize-costs/">market-based policies</a>,” in contrast to “command-and-control” policies like <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/renewable-portfolio-standards.aspx">renewable portfolio standards</a> – state mandates that make utilities get at least a defined proportion of their electricity from renewable energy like solar and wind power.</p>
<p>For a given pollution reduction goal, a market-based policy, economists generally agree, can achieve it at a lower cost than a command-and-control policy can – as long as that the market-based policy is sufficiently strict. </p>
<p>There are two main ways that Massachusetts, New York and other states are already trying reduce their carbon footprints to correct for this problem. The first is a market-based policy: <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-cap-and-trade-systems-offer-evidence-that-carbon-pricing-can-work-101428">cap and trade</a>, otherwise known as emissions trading systems. Also known as emissions trading systems, this approach caps the total emissions allowed at a set level and then allocate emissions permits to factories, utilities and other polluters either for free or through auctions.</p>
<p>The other is through stronger renewable portfolio standards. Once states reach a benchmark, they can set more ambitious goals. When the authorities fail to do that or take other steps to deal with climate change and protect the environment from the risks tied to fossil fuels, one workaround is to have the electorate weigh in. </p>
<p>That doesn’t always work either.</p>
<p>Indeed, <a href="https://www.kgun9.com/news/political/elections-local/voters-reject-renewable-energy-requirements-in-prop-127">Arizona voters rejected</a> a measure on their 2018 ballots that would have increased their renewable energy target to 50 percent from 15 percent by <a href="https://www.kgun9.com/election-results/?_ga=2.223329051.1270665178.1541684220-1114447215.1541684220">an overwhelming margin</a>.</p>
<p>A similar measure did <a href="https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/11/07/duel-in-the-desert-matching-rps-initiative-passes-in-nevada-and-fails-in-arizona/">prevail in Nevada</a>. But before it can go into effect, voters will have to approve it a second time in 2020. </p>
<h2>Taxing carbon</h2>
<p>Perhaps most notably, voters in Washington declined to make their state the nation’s first to <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/7/20/17584376/carbon-tax-congress-republicans-cost-economy">tax carbon dioxide emissions</a>. </p>
<p>This ballot initiative, which would have introduced a carbon “fee,” failed to garner support from a majority of Washington voters. Those voters had <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09112016/washington-state-carbon-tax-i-732-ballot-measure">rejected another carbon tax measure in 2016</a> as well. </p>
<p>Not all energy-related taxes flopped. Portland, Oregon’s voters chose to create a new 1 percent tax on the gross receipts of all large retailers. The revenue it raises will establish a <a href="https://www.opb.org/news/article/portland-oregon-clean-energy-gross-receipts-tax-result/">clean energy fund</a>, to be used to meet the city’s emissions reduction goals. </p>
<p>Other efforts to regulate fossil fuels at the ballot box also had <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/midterms-2018-mixed-results-for-the-renewable-energy-agenda#gs.W3tKvd8">mixed results</a>. Florida voters amended their state constitution to <a href="https://www.wfla.com/news/politics/florida-passes-amendment-9-banning-both-offshore-oil-drilling-and-indoor-vaping/1577495572">ban offshore oil drilling</a>, reinforcing a prohibition already on the state’s books. And Californians bucked an effort to <a href="https://elections.calmatters.org/2018/california-ballot-measures/proposition-6-gas-tax-repeal/">repeal a gas tax hike</a>.</p>
<p>But Coloradans declined a chance to force their state to locate new <a href="https://theconversation.com/coloradans-reject-restrictions-on-drilling-distances-from-homes-and-schools-106511">oil and gas projects at least 2,500 feet</a> from occupied buildings like homes, schools and hospitals. </p>
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<h2>An alternative</h2>
<p>What can be more effective than winning specific changes at the ballot box? Electing leaders inclined to make those changes once they’re in office. And several newly elected governors have promised to support policies that will reduce carbon emissions.</p>
<p>Colorado Governor-elect Jared Polis, for example, backs shifting his state to <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27092018/election-2018-governor-races-renewable-energy-wisconsin-maine-michigan-colorado-new-mexico-nevada">100 percent reliance on renewable energy</a> for electricity by 2040. So do many of his peers, including <a href="https://twitter.com/jbpritzker/status/971796579647721474">J.B. Pritzker</a> in Illinois, <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/11/7/18071770/midterm-election-results-governor-climate-change">Tony Evers</a> in Wisconsin, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/24/democrats-2018-energy-climate-change-873730">Gretchen Whitmer</a> in Michigan and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAdvUVtTKB0&feature=youtu.be">Stephen Sisolak</a> in Nevada.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.janetmills.com/issues/environment">Janet Mills</a> in Maine aims to cut her state’s carbon emissions by 80 percent by 2030. <a href="http://scorecard.lcv.org/moc/michelle-lujan-grisham">Michelle Lujan Grisham</a> in New Mexico consistently voted for environmental legislation while serving in the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>Change at the federal level may remain elusive for now. But many of the new members of Congress who won their first elections in 2018, including New Yorker <a href="https://www.ocasio2018.com/issues">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a>, <a href="https://castenforcongress.com/about/">Sean Casten</a> of Illinois and Virginian <a href="https://twitter.com/elaineluriava/status/1021506237362450433">Elaine Luria</a>, support phasing out oil, gas and coal consumption. And the Democratic Party plans to restore a <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/democrats-plan-to-reinstate-house-climate-committee">special committee focused on climate change</a> once it formally takes control of the House.</p>
<p>These new lawmakers will be poised to do more about climate change than their predecessors once there is a president who makes it a priority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105783/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Garth Heutel receives funding from Alliance for Market Solutions.</span></em></p>But many new governors and members of Congress intend to take action on climate change.Garth Heutel, Associate Professor of Economics, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/987072018-06-26T19:48:28Z2018-06-26T19:48:28ZNew coal doesn’t stack up – just look at Queensland’s renewable energy numbers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224853/original/file-20180626-112604-2hl3vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As the name suggests, Windy Hill near Cairns gets its fair share of power-generating weather.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Leonard Low/Flickr/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the federal government aims to ink a deal with the states on the National Energy Guarantee in August, it appears still to be negotiating within its own ranks. Federal energy minister Josh Frydenberg has reportedly told his partyroom colleagues that he would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/26/energy-minister-would-welcome-new-coal-fired-power-plant">welcome a new coal-fired power plant</a>, while his former colleague (and now Queensland Resources Council chief executive) Ian Macfarlane <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/coalition-elders-fire-up-for-coalfired-power-seek-to-end-infighting/news-story/939186e79f2dcb63ebacc6ca9c3c1e5c">urged the government</a> to consider offering industry incentives for so-called “clean coal”.</p>
<p>Last month, it emerged that One Nation had asked for a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-22/pauline-hanson-effectively-withdraws-support-for-company-tax-cut/9785774">new coal-fired power plant in north Queensland</a> in return for supporting the government’s business tax reforms.</p>
<p>Is all this pro-coal jockeying actually necessary for our energy or economic future? Our analysis suggests that renewable energy is a much better choice, in terms of both costs and jobs.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-pv-and-wind-are-on-track-to-replace-all-coal-oil-and-gas-within-two-decades-94033">Solar PV and wind are on track to replace all coal, oil and gas within two decades</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>Renewables and jobs</h2>
<p>Virtually all new generation being constructed in Australia is <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/Generation-information">solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind energy</a>. New-build coal power is <a href="http://www.co2crc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/LCOE_Report_final_web.pdf">estimated</a> to cost A$70-90 per megawatt-hour, increasing to more than A$140 per MWh with carbon capture and storage. </p>
<p>Solar PV and wind are now cheaper than new-build coal power plants, even without carbon capture and storage. Unsubsidised contracts for wind projects in Australia have recently been signed for <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/stockyard-hill-wind-farm-locks-in-finance-after-setting-record-low-price-82932/">less than A$55 per MWh</a>, and PV electricity is being produced from very large-scale plants at <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-is-now-the-most-popular-form-of-new-electricity-generation-worldwide-81678">A$30-50 per MWh</a> around the world.</p>
<p>Worldwide, solar PV and wind generation now account for <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-pv-and-wind-are-on-track-to-replace-all-coal-oil-and-gas-within-two-decades-94033">60% of global net new power capacity</a>, far exceeding the net rate of fossil fuel installation. </p>
<p>As the graph below shows, medium to large (at least 100 kilowatts) renewable energy projects have been <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/Large-scale-Renewable-Energy-Target-market-data">growing strongly in Australia since 2017</a>. Before that, there was a slowdown due to the policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target, but wind and large scale solar are now being installed at record rates and are expected to grow further.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224834/original/file-20180626-19421-1dnb1qd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224834/original/file-20180626-19421-1dnb1qd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224834/original/file-20180626-19421-1dnb1qd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224834/original/file-20180626-19421-1dnb1qd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224834/original/file-20180626-19421-1dnb1qd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224834/original/file-20180626-19421-1dnb1qd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224834/original/file-20180626-19421-1dnb1qd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224834/original/file-20180626-19421-1dnb1qd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Left axis/block colours: renewable energy employment by generation type in Australia; right axis/dotted lines: installed wind and large-scale solar generation capacity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABS/Clean Energy Council/Clean Energy Regulator</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the graph also shows, this has been accompanied by a rapid increase in employment in the renewables sector, with roughly 4,000 people employed constructing and operating wind and solar farms in 2016-17. In contrast, employment in biomass (largely sugar cane bagasse and ethanol) and hydro generation have been relatively static.</p>
<p>Although employment figures are higher during project construction than operation, high employment numbers will continue as long as the growth of renewable projects continues. As the chart below shows, a total of 6,400MW of new wind and solar projects are set to be completed by 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224835/original/file-20180626-19375-9oynft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224835/original/file-20180626-19375-9oynft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224835/original/file-20180626-19375-9oynft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224835/original/file-20180626-19375-9oynft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224835/original/file-20180626-19375-9oynft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224835/original/file-20180626-19375-9oynft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224835/original/file-20180626-19375-9oynft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224835/original/file-20180626-19375-9oynft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renewable energy projects expected to be delivered before 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/Large-scale-Renewable-Energy-Target-market-data">Clean Energy Regulator</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Queensland question</h2>
<p>Australia’s newest coal-fired power plant was opened at <a href="https://www.csenergy.com.au/what-we-do/generating-energy/kogan-creek-power-station">Kogan Creek, Queensland</a> in 2007. Many of the political voices calling for new coal have suggested that this investment should be made in Queensland. But what’s the real picture of energy development in that state?</p>
<p>There has been no new coal for more than a decade, but developers are queuing up to build renewable energy projects. Powerlink, which owns and maintains Queensland’s electricity network, <a href="https://www.powerlink.com.au/news-media/renewables-flow-queensland">reported in May</a> that it has received 150 applications and enquiries to connect to the grid, totalling 30,000MW of prospective new generation – almost all of it for renewables. Its statement added:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A total of more than A$4.2 billion worth of projects are currently either under construction or financially committed, offering a combined employment injection of more than 3,500 construction jobs across regional Queensland and more than 2,000MW of power.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As the map below shows, 80% of these projects are in areas outside South East Queensland, meaning that the growth in renewable energy is set to offer a significant boost to regional employment.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224836/original/file-20180626-19408-qycm22.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224836/original/file-20180626-19408-qycm22.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224836/original/file-20180626-19408-qycm22.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=791&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224836/original/file-20180626-19408-qycm22.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=791&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224836/original/file-20180626-19408-qycm22.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=791&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224836/original/file-20180626-19408-qycm22.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=994&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224836/original/file-20180626-19408-qycm22.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=994&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/224836/original/file-20180626-19408-qycm22.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=994&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Existing and under-construction (solid) and planned (white) wind and solar farms in Queensland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://maps.dnrm.qld.gov.au/electricity-generation-map/">Qld Dept of Resources, Mines & Energy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tropical North Queensland, in particular, has plenty of sunshine and relatively little seasonal variation in its climate. While not as windy as South Australia, it has the advantage that it is generally <a href="https://arena.gov.au/assets/2017/02/Kennedy-Park-FinClose-Report-Windlab.pdf">windier at night than during the day</a>, meaning that wind and solar energy would complement one another well.</p>
<p>Renewable energy projects that incorporate both solar and wind in the same precinct operate for a greater fraction of the time, thus reducing the relative transmission costs. This is improved still further by adding storage in the form of pumped hydro or batteries – as at the new renewables projects at <a href="http://www.genexpower.com.au/">Kidston</a> and <a href="https://kennedyenergypark.com.au/">Kennedy</a>.</p>
<p>Remember also that Queensland is linked to the other eastern states via the National Electricity Market (NEM). It makes sense to build wind farms across a range of climate zones from far north Queensland to South Australia because – to put it simply – the wider the coverage, the more likely it is that it will be windy somewhere on the grid at any given time.</p>
<p>This principle is reflected in our work on <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217309568">100% renewable electricity for Australia</a>. We used five years of climate data to determine the optimal location for wind and solar plants, so as to reliably meet the NEM’s total electricity demand. We found that the most cost-effective solution required building about 10 gigawatts (GW) of new wind and PV in far north Queensland, connected to the south with a high-voltage cable.</p>
<h2>Jobs and growth</h2>
<p>This kind of investment in northern Queensland has the potential to create thousands of jobs in the coming decades. An <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/dam/cec/policy-and-advocacy/reports/2012/Wind-Farm-Investment-Employment-and-Carbon-Abatement-in-Australia/Wind%20Farm%20Investment%2C%20Employment%20and%20Carbon%20Abatement%20in%20Australia-1.pdf">SKM report</a> commissioned by the Clean Energy Council estimated that each 100MW of new renewable energy would create 96 direct local jobs, 285 state jobs, and 475 national jobs during the construction phase. During operation those figures would be 9 local jobs, 14 state jobs and 32 national jobs per 100MW of generation. </p>
<p>Spreading 10GW of construction over 20 years at 500MW per year would therefore deliver 480 ongoing local construction jobs and 900 ongoing local operation jobs once all are built, and total national direct employment of 2,400 and 3,200 in construction and operations, respectively.</p>
<p>But the job opportunities would not stop there. New grid infrastructure will also be needed, for transmission line upgrades and investments in storage such as batteries or pumped hydro. The new electricity infrastructure could also tempt energy-hungry industries to head north in search of cheaper operating costs.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-right-to-fund-energy-storage-a-100-renewable-grid-is-within-reach-72353">The government is right to fund energy storage: a 100% renewable grid is within reach</a>
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<p>One political party with a strong regional focus, Katter’s Australia Party, understands this. Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy contains two large renewable energy projects. In late 2017, he and the federal shadow infrastructure minister Anthony Albanese took a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-04/katter-and-albo-take-bromance-to-the-bush-on-power-trip/8869016">tour of renewables projects</a> across far north Queensland’s “triangle of power”. </p>
<p>Katter, never one to hold back, asked “how could any government conceive of the stupidity like another baseload coal-fired power station in North Queensland?” Judging by the numbers, it’s a very good question.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98707/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Stocks receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency</span></em></p>There are calls from the backbench and elsewhere for the federal government to safeguard the future of coal. But do those calls make economic sense? A look at Queensland’s energy landscape suggests not.Matthew Stocks, Research Fellow, ANU College of Engineering and Computer Science, Australian National UniversityAndrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/963452018-05-09T03:52:30Z2018-05-09T03:52:30ZBudget 2018 was old news for energy policy – the next big headlines won’t come until July<p>As with many previous budgets, matters relating to energy and climate change were relegated to little more than a footnote in Treasurer Scott Morrison’s 2018 budget speech. And even the contents of that footnote told us nothing new.</p>
<p>This will bring relief to some, but cause frustration for others.</p>
<p>No money was set aside for a new coal-fired power station, despite the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pro-coal-monash-forum-may-do-little-but-blacken-the-name-of-a-revered-australian-94329">plaintive calls from the backbench</a> in recent weeks. Nor was there any extra help for consumers struggling with <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-high-price-for-policy-failure-the-ten-year-story-of-spiralling-electricity-bills-89450">sky-high electricity bills</a>. There was no extra funding for the government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-emissions-reduction-fund-is-almost-empty-it-shouldnt-be-refilled-92283">Emissions Reduction Fund</a>, but neither was money cut from the <a href="https://arena.gov.au/">Australian Renewable Energy Agency</a> or the <a href="https://www.cefc.com.au/">Clean Energy Finance Corporation</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-high-price-for-policy-failure-the-ten-year-story-of-spiralling-electricity-bills-89450">A high price for policy failure: the ten-year story of spiralling electricity bills</a>
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<p>What Budget 2018 did contain was three “announcables” – or, to put it more accurately, re-announcables.</p>
<p>First, Morrison declared that adoption of the federal government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-the-national-energy-guarantee-at-a-glance-85832">National Energy Guarantee</a> would save the average household A$400 a year on its electricity bills. This is a bit of sleight of hand. Yes, <a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/sites/prod.energycouncil/files/publications/documents/Report%20on%20the%20National%20Energy%20Guarantee.pdf">modelling for the NEG</a> shows that consumers’ bills will be on average A$400 lower than in 2017. But much of those savings will occur before the NEG comes into force in 2020.</p>
<p>Second, the treasurer declared that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>All energy sources and technologies should support themselves without taxpayer subsidies. The current subsidy scheme will be phased out from 2020.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The subsidies to which Morrison refers are from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/renewable-energy-target-8912">Renewable Energy Target</a> (RET). But it is hardly news that the scheme will to be phased out from 2020. This has been known for a decade. In fact, it’s a bit of a stretch to say the subsidies are being “phased out” at all. </p>
<p>After 2020, existing or new renewable energy projects will still be able to generate the same renewable energy certificates for every megawatt hour of electricity they produce, which they can then sell to retailers. The ability to generate certificates – and therefore generate a subsidy – will only end in 2030. The difference between the pre- and post-2020 RET is that there will be no annual increase in the target. </p>
<p>Finally, the treasurer pledged that the federal government will keep up the pressure on the big energy companies to give consumers better electricity and gas deals. This announcement is a signal as to when we can expect to see the next real action from the government on energy. It will come in July, when Morrison receives the report on the <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/publications/accc-retail-electricity-pricing-inquiry-preliminary-report">Retail Electricity Pricing Inquiry</a>, which is being carried out by the <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/">Australian Competition and Consumer Commission</a> (ACCC). </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-libs-claim-south-australia-states-are-falling-into-line-behind-the-national-energy-guarantee-93664">As the Libs claim South Australia, states are falling into line behind the National Energy Guarantee</a>
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<p>The Turnbull government will be keen to act on the ACCC’s recommendations, given the looming federal election and the pressure on all politicians to find a way to cut voters’ energy bills.</p>
<p>So if we want some real headlines on energy, rather than some reheated footnotes, we will be waiting for a couple of months yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Blowers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison’s budget speech held no surprises on energy, after months of debate over the National Energy Guarantee. The real news comes in July with the release of a crucial ACCC report on power prices.David Blowers, Energy Fellow, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/935942018-03-26T03:40:36Z2018-03-26T03:40:36ZFactCheck Q&A: are South Australia’s high electricity prices ‘the consequence’ of renewable energy policy?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211112/original/file-20180320-31602-918p7m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Minister for Urban Infrastructure and Cities Paul Fletcher, speaking on Q&A.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABC Q&A</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>The Conversation fact-checks claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9.35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> using hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a> or by <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>.</strong></p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, March 19, 2018.</span></figcaption>
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<blockquote>
<p>Now, the consequence of [Jay Weatherill’s] policies was that South Australians faced the highest electricity charges, the highest retail electricity charges, in the country.</p>
<p><strong>– Minister for Urban Infrastructure and Cities Paul Fletcher, <a href="https://youtu.be/9JRkHDUAAH0">speaking on Q&A</a>, March 19, 2018</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>During an <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s4805964.htm">episode of Q&A</a>, Minister for Urban Infrastructure and Cities Paul Fletcher said that South Australia has the “highest retail electricity charges in the country”. That statement in itself <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-does-south-australia-have-the-highest-energy-prices-in-the-nation-and-the-least-reliable-grid-92928">is correct</a>.</p>
<p>But Fletcher went on to say that the high prices were “the consequence” of former SA Premier Jay Weatherill’s renewable energy policies, which included the introduction of a 50% renewable energy target, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-10/south-australia-renewable-energy-target-reached-early/8429722">met in 2017</a>.</p>
<p>Was Fletcher right?</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>In response to a request for sources and comment, a spokesperson for Fletcher pointed The Conversation to the Australian Energy Market Commission’s 2017 Residential Electricity Price Trends <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/markets-reviews-advice/2017-residential-electricity-price-trends">report</a>, wholesale electricity price data from the Australian Energy Market Operator, and a 2017 Australian Competition and Consumer Commission <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Retail%20Electricity%20Inquiry%20-%20Preliminary%20report%20-%2013%20November%202017.pdf">report</a>, which stated that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the combination of significant network investment over the past decade, recent increases to gas prices, more concentrated wholesale markets, and the transition from large scale synchronous generation to variable and intermittent renewable energy resources has had a more pronounced effect on retail prices and number of offers in South Australia than any other state in the National Electricity Market.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>You can read the full response from Fletcher’s office <a href="https://theconversation.com/full-response-from-a-spokesperson-for-paul-fletcher-for-a-factcheck-on-electricity-prices-and-renewable-energy-93662">here</a>.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Paul Fletcher was correct to say that South Australia has the highest retail electricity prices in Australia.</p>
<p>Current prices for the typical South Australian customer are 37.79 cents per kilowatt-hour (c/kWh). The Australian Capital Territory has the lowest retail electricity prices in Australia, at around 23.68 c/kWh.</p>
<p>But there are many factors that affect retail electricity prices. Increasing levels of renewable energy generation is just one.</p>
<p>Other factors include network costs, gas prices, changes in supply and demand dynamics and market competition issues.</p>
<p>Therefore, Fletcher’s assertion that South Australia’s high retail electricity prices are “the consequence” of former Premier Jay Weatherill’s renewable energy policies is incorrect.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-does-south-australia-have-the-highest-energy-prices-in-the-nation-and-the-least-reliable-grid-92928">FactCheck: does South Australia have the 'highest energy prices' in the nation and 'the least reliable grid'?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Does South Australia have the highest retail electricity prices in the nation?</h2>
<p>First, a quick terminology reminder. “Energy” is a broad term that includes sources such as petrol, diesel, gas and renewables, among other things. “Electricity” is a specific form of energy that can be produced from many different sources.</p>
<p>The “retail electricity price” is what you’ll typically see in your home electricity bill, and is usually expressed in cents per kilowatt-hour (c/kWh). </p>
<p>According the Australian Energy Market <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/markets-reviews-advice/2017-residential-electricity-price-trends">2017 Residential Electricity Price Trends</a> report, South Australia does indeed have the highest retail prices in the nation. Current prices for the typical South Australian customer are 37.79c/kWh.</p>
<p>The lowest retail electricity prices in the country are in the Australian Capital Territory, where the typical customer pays around 23.68c/kWh. </p>
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<p><iframe id="1BYc9" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1BYc9/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>The retail electricity price includes the wholesale price of the electricity, the network costs (or the “poles and wires” that bring the electricity to your home), retailing costs, and levies related to “green schemes” (such as the renewable energy target or solar feed-in tariffs). </p>
<p>The chart below shows how the different components contributed the electricity price increase in South Australia between 2007-08 and 2015-16.</p>
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<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NujQW/6/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="450"></iframe>
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<p>For many years the drivers for retail prices have been network costs – which have very little to do with renewables.</p>
<p>But over the past 18 months, there has also been a increase in <em>wholesale</em> electricity prices across the entire National Electricity Market – the interconnected power system that covers Queensland, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.</p>
<p>A range of factors have contributed to this.</p>
<p>These include the increase in gas prices, and the tightening of the supply-demand balance.</p>
<p>The closures of South Australia’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Power_Station_(South_Australia)">Northern Power Station</a> in 2016 and Victoria’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazelwood_Power_Station">Hazelwood Power Station</a> have contributed to a reduction in electricity supply (capacity).</p>
<p>The ACCC is also <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Retail%20Electricity%20Inquiry%20-%20Preliminary%20report%20-%2013%20November%202017.pdf">investigating</a> “transfer pricing” – which is when a business that’s an energy generator as well as a retailer shifts costs from one part of its business to another. </p>
<h2>Are the prices ‘the consequence’ of Weatherill’s renewable energy policy?</h2>
<p>No. Even if wholesale prices become the main driver of retail prices, it’s not accurate to place the blame squarely on renewables. </p>
<p>Increased renewable energy generation may have contributed to decisions for some power plants to close. But so would other factors – such the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-01/worksafe-notices-detail-extent-of-repairs-needed-at-hazelwood/8082318">A$400 million safety upgrade</a> required for the Hazelwood power plant to have stayed open.</p>
<p>As mentioned above, other factors such as gas prices and competition issues have also contributed to increases in wholesale electricity prices. And as shown below, these are not confined to South Australia.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210029/original/file-20180313-30979-jg4ezc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210029/original/file-20180313-30979-jg4ezc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210029/original/file-20180313-30979-jg4ezc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210029/original/file-20180313-30979-jg4ezc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210029/original/file-20180313-30979-jg4ezc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210029/original/file-20180313-30979-jg4ezc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210029/original/file-20180313-30979-jg4ezc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electricity futures prices for 2017–18.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ACCC 2017, Retail Electricity Pricing
Inquiry, Preliminary report (page 56)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Gas prices are particularly important in the South Australian context, which is the most gas-dependent region in the National Electricity Market. </p>
<p>In addition, the South Australian market is the <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/publications/state-of-the-energy-market-reports/state-of-the-energy-market-may-2017">most concentrated in terms of competition</a>.</p>
<p>So, Fletcher was not correct to say that South Australia’s high electricity prices are “the consequence” of Weatherill’s renewable energy policies. </p>
<p>Indeed, a large proportion of the existing renewable investment in South Australia has been financed as a result of the federal Renewable Energy Target, introduced by the Howard government, rather than state policy. <strong>– Dylan McConnell</strong></p>
<hr>
<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>I agree with the verdict.</p>
<p>The price question is not contentious. South Australia has the highest retail electricity prices in Australia.</p>
<p>But no single factor or decision is responsible for the electricity prices we endure today.</p>
<p>The prices are the result of <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-high-price-for-policy-failure-the-ten-year-story-of-spiralling-electricity-bills-89450">many different policies and pressures</a> at every step of the electricity supply chain. <strong>– David Blowers</strong></p>
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<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
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<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit was the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93594/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan McConnell has received funding from the AEMC's Consumer Advocacy Panel and Energy Consumers Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Blowers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Q&A, Minister for Urban Infrastructure and Cities Paul Fletcher said South Australia’s high electricity prices were “the consequence” of Jay Weatherill’s renewable energy policies. Is that right?Dylan McConnell, Researcher at the Australian German Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/936642018-03-21T19:33:30Z2018-03-21T19:33:30ZAs the Libs claim South Australia, states are falling into line behind the National Energy Guarantee<p>Former prime minister Paul Keating used to say that when you change the government, you change the country. On Saturday South Australians changed their government, and now the country’s energy policy could finally change – and for the better, if current policy uncertainty is put to bed.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull certainly seems to think it will. He is already claiming the SA election result as an <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/sa-libs-win-endorses-fed-energy-plan-pm">endorsement</a> of his <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-energy-guarantee-deliver-affordable-reliable-electricity">National Energy Guarantee</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-national-energy-guarantee-could-work-better-than-a-clean-energy-target-85821">How the National Energy Guarantee could work better than a clean energy target</a>
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<p>Incoming Liberal Premier Steven Marshall has consistently supported a national approach to energy policy, and on his first day in office he pledged to <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/new-sa-premier-steven-marshall-will-work-closely-with-turnbull-government-20180318-h0xnbo">end South Australia’s go-it-alone approach</a>.</p>
<p>But while South Australia’s support is vital, the National Energy Guarantee – which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ensure reliability in Australia’s National Electricity Market – is not a done deal yet.</p>
<h2>Designing the guarantee</h2>
<p>The independent <a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/energy-security-board">Energy Security Board</a> recommended a National Energy Guarantee last October, and the Turnbull government quickly adopted it as <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-energy-guarantee-deliver-affordable-reliable-electricity">policy</a>.</p>
<p>In November, at <a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/publications/15th-energy-council-ministerial-meeting">a meeting of the COAG Energy Council</a>, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania voted for work on a detailed design of the guarantee. South Australia and the ACT voted against (Queensland was absent).</p>
<p>The weekend’s election result seems to have brought South Australia into the tent; it certainly draws a line under the tensions between the outgoing premier, Jay Weatherill, and Federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg, which bubbled over in a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/an-energy-slanging-match-is-not-a-hopeful-sign/">public stoush</a> last year. </p>
<p>But <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-set-for-david-and-goliath-battle-over-energy-plan-20180319-p4z52p">the ACT government</a> still has concerns about the guarantee, and all states will be holding out for more detail on the policy.</p>
<p>In February the ESB released a <a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/publications/energy-security-board-national-energy-guarantee-consultation-paper">consultation paper</a> on the design of the guarantee, which indicated that there is much work still to be done. </p>
<p>The design should not be rushed – getting the detail right is crucial if Australia is to tackle climate change and maintain a reliable electricity supply at lowest cost.</p>
<p>The guarantee is a means to an end, not the end itself. It is neither pro-coal nor pro-renewables. It is a mechanism to achieve national targets. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">emissions target itself</a> – a 26-28% cut in greenhouse gas emissions relative to 2005 levels by 2030 – remains a political choice of the federal government. </p>
<p>The design must be sufficiently robust to produce the desired outcomes, but should also be flexible enough to allow the emissions target and required level of reliability to change over time. People’s preferences change, new technologies are emerging, and current and future governments will almost certainly need to increase emissions targets under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>A design that is flexible in response to alternative political choices has a much better chance of getting unanimous support from the states and territories. A state or territory supporting the guarantee need not endorse the current target.</p>
<h2>What next for renewables?</h2>
<p>Weatherill famously declared South Australia’s election to be “<a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/local/2017/07/14/election-referendum-renewables-says-weatherill/">a referendum on renewable energy</a>”. His defeat almost certainly means that South Australia’s 50% renewable energy target, which Weatherill had pledged to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-21/sa-to-be-powered-by-75-per-cent-renewables-by-2025/9470408">extend to 75%</a>, will be <a href="https://www.saliberal.org.au/liberal_energy_solution">abolished</a>. </p>
<p>But South Australia’s wind, solar and battery projects aren’t going anywhere. While there has been some concern about <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-19/sa-liberals-tight-lipped-on-musk-solar-battery-storage-plan/9564784">the future of individual projects</a>, the change in policy won’t affect existing solar and wind farms. Marshall has promised to honour existing contracts. South Australia remains the location of choice for many projects under the federal <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/renewable-energy-target-8912">Renewable Energy Target</a>.</p>
<p>The National Energy Guarantee would not replace or preclude state targets for renewable energy. They achieve different things. A renewable energy target is aimed at guiding and shaping industry investment, rather than specifically reducing emissions (although states have used renewable energy targets in recent years to attempt to cut emissions in the absence of a credible federal scheme). </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-national-energy-guarantee-hit-pause-on-renewables-85978">Will the National Energy Guarantee hit pause on renewables?</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>South Australia is likely to continue to contribute strongly to a national emissions reduction target, with or without a local renewable energy target. High levels of intermittent renewable energy in the state will require backup generation and demand response to meet the reliability obligation.</p>
<p>Under the guarantee, states and territories can still choose to deliver greater emissions reductions than the federal target. They can do this through renewable energy targets or more direct emissions policies. But individual states that want to pursue these deeper cuts could end up doing the heavy lifting for the nation, unless states can collectively agree to beat the national target. </p>
<h2>Unanimous support still needed</h2>
<p>The COAG Energy Council will meet again on April 20 to discuss the future of the National Energy Guarantee. With South Australia’s support looking much more likely this time around, the policy can be expected to remain on the table. But all states and territories will no doubt reserve judgement until they have the final design, and that won’t be until the second half of 2018.</p>
<p>Australia is edging closer to finally having a national, integrated, energy and climate policy. We’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/ten-years-of-backflips-over-emissions-trading-leave-climate-policy-in-the-lurch-69641">been here before</a>, and previously have let the perfect become the enemy of the good. Let’s not make that mistake again – let’s get a foundation in place to build on. So many politicians have fallen trying. But perhaps Weatherill will be the last.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93664/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Griffiths does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The end of Jay Weatherill’s government has removed a significant obstacle to progress on the federal National Energy Guarantee – even though we don’t yet know what the full policy will look like.Kate Griffiths, Senior Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/914422018-02-09T17:03:31Z2018-02-09T17:03:31ZThe EU wants to fight climate change – so why is it spending billions on a gas pipeline?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205470/original/file-20180208-180813-ifievy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:TAP_in_Albania.jpg">Albinfo/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past few years there has been <a href="https://www.enelgreenpower.com/media/news/d/2017/12/renewables-exponential-growth">exponential growth</a> in clean energy investment – while fossil fuel assets are increasingly considered to be <a href="https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/FINAL-TCFD-Annex-062817.pdf">risky</a>. Yet, on February 6, the European Investment Bank, the EU’s long-term lending institution, voted to provide a <a href="http://www.eib.org/infocentre/press/releases/all/2018/2018-030-eib-backs-eur-6-5-billion-energy-sme-transport-and-urban-investment">€1.5 billion loan</a> to the controversial Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP).</p>
<p>The TAP is the Western part of a larger Southern Gas Corridor proposal that would ultimately connect a large gas field in the Caspian Sea to Italy, crossing through Azerbaijan, Turkey, Greece and Albania. And while gas might be cleaner than coal, it’s still a fossil fuel. </p>
<p>So how does the EU’s support for this major project fit in with its supposed goal of addressing climate change?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205365/original/file-20180207-74487-1cg5u8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205365/original/file-20180207-74487-1cg5u8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205365/original/file-20180207-74487-1cg5u8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205365/original/file-20180207-74487-1cg5u8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205365/original/file-20180207-74487-1cg5u8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205365/original/file-20180207-74487-1cg5u8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205365/original/file-20180207-74487-1cg5u8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205365/original/file-20180207-74487-1cg5u8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The proposed Trans Adriatic Pipeline will run nearly 900km from Greece to Italy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Trans_Adriatic_Pipeline.png">Genti77 / wiki</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<h2>Influencing investors</h2>
<p>A key problem is the message this sends to the private sector, where renewable energy is increasingly seen as a good investment. Technologies once perceived as too risky and too expensive are now delivering worthwhile returns thanks to reduced costs and breakthroughs in energy storage. The price of electricity generated by solar, wind or hydro is now comparable with the national grid. Over the past decade, investor meetings have shifted from discussing whether the transition to a low carbon economy will start before 2050, to whether it will be completed in the same period. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"949194987337650176"}"></div></p>
<p>But there is still not enough money being spent on renewables. While clean energy investment in 2017 <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/runaway-53gw-solar-boom-in-china-pushed-global-clean-energy-investment-ahead-in-2017/">topped US$300 billion for the fourth year in a row</a>, this is far short of what is needed to unlock the technology revolution necessary to tackle climate change. There is clearly a gap between what is required and what is being delivered. </p>
<p>The private sector will continue to invest significant capital into energy projects over the next few decades, so one issue facing policy makers is how to influence investors away from fossil fuels and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511005064">towards renewable projects</a>. To really scale up investment into renewable infrastructure, <a href="http://www.unepfi.org/fileadmin/documents/Investment-GradeClimateChangePolicy.pdf">long-term and stable policy is required</a> – which investors <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652615006277">see as clearly lacking</a>. </p>
<p>By funding the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, the EU’s investment bank is hardly signalling to the private sector that governments are committed to a green energy transition. </p>
<h2>Risky business</h2>
<p>If Europe really was to follow through and successfully switch to green energy – and such a transition is partially underway – then the pipeline project may even represent a risk to public finances.</p>
<p>Studies on climate change point to the need for a greater sense of urgency and ambition and, to stay within its “carbon budget” under current agreed emissions targets, the EU needs to be <a href="http://www.foeeurope.org/sites/default/files/extractive_industries/2017/can_the_climate_afford_europes_gas_addiction_report_november2017.pdf">fossil fuel free by 2030</a>. </p>
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<p>So any large oil and gas infrastructure projects with investment returns beyond 2030 are saddled with risk. In just a decade or two, super-cheap solar and wind power could mean that gas pipelines such as TAP would no longer make financial sense and would become worthless “<a href="https://www.carbontracker.org/terms/stranded-assets/">stranded assets</a>”. Yet TAP backers are touting economic benefits for countries such as <a href="http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/Media/Default/economic-impact/economic-impact-home/Economic-Impact-trans-Adriatic-Pipeline.pdf">Albania</a> extending to 2068 – well beyond the date when Europe must entirely ditch fossil fuels.</p>
<p>The EU’s official stance is to hail natural gas as a cleaner “bridge fuel” between coal and renewables. But <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/343/6172/733.summary">high leakage rates</a> and the <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_All.pdf">potent warming impact</a> of methane (the primary constituent of natural gas) means that the Southern Gas Corridor’s climate footprint may be <a href="https://bankwatch.org/publication/smoke-and-mirrors-why-the-climate-promises-of-the-southern-gas-corridor-don-t-add-up">as large, or larger, than equivalent coal</a>. Abundant natural gas is also highly likely to <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/9/094008/meta">delay the deployment of renewable technologies</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"952216497123835906"}"></div></p>
<p>For the first decade of this century Europe prided itself on leading the political debate on tackling climate change. Now, it appears to be losing its boldness. To drive through a new technology revolution, the public sector needs to lead from the front and take bold decisions about its energy strategy.</p>
<p>A gas pipeline is not a technology of the future. If California can release <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSKcvoBKYxc">YouTube videos</a> describing the importance of considering stranded assets during this energy transition, and New York City can announce plans to <a href="https://twitter.com/NYCMayor/status/952216497123835906">divest from fossil fuels</a>, then maybe it is time for the EU to turn off the TAP.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aled Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The European Investment Bank’s funding of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline will harm the climate and makes little financial sense.Aled Jones, Professor & Director, Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/879432017-11-23T19:13:10Z2017-11-23T19:13:10ZEnergy ministers’ power policy pow-wow is still driven more by headlines than details<p>A quick scan of this week’s headlines shows the government’s new energy plan would “<a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/energy-plan-to-slash-120-off-power-bills-ng-s-1800384">slash A$120 off power bills</a>” and that the “<a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/turnbull-government-plan-to-address-energy-crisis-predicts-400-price-drop/news-story/3754370f9bf8454f89cd251edd870b93">Turnbull government plan to address energy crisis predicts A$400 price drop</a>”. Yes, the initial findings of the modelling of the federal government’s National Energy Guarantee (NEG) are out. Cue the latest round of bluster, misinformation and confusion. </p>
<p>What has actually been released is a five-page summary of the findings, although some <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/esb-modeling-confirms-neg-designed-to-shut-door-on-renewables-74093/">media reports</a> contain extracts from a more detailed document. We won’t see that until after federal and state energy ministers have considered it at today’s COAG Energy Council meeting. </p>
<p>With some state energy ministers still expressing <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/worst-fears-states-prepare-to-highlight-the-negatives-in-turnbulls-energy-plan-20171122-gzqphl.html">scepticism over the NEG</a>, their interpretation of the detailed modelling may be crucial in resolving the debate.</p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-the-national-energy-guarantee-at-a-glance-85832">Infographic: the National Energy Guarantee at a glance</a>
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<p>What do our five-pager and media leaks tell us? Well, not a lot. There are enough facts and figures to provide instant filler for journalists’ articles. But as far as the modelling is concerned, there are only a couple of charts and a handful of numbers. </p>
<p>The summary forecasts that under the NEG wholesale electricity prices will drop back to their historical average of around A$50 per megawatt hour, compared with around A$100 per megawatt hour now. This will drive down our power bills during the decade from 2020 to 2030 decade by an average of about A$400. </p>
<p>But here’s the rub: prices will fall even if the NEG isn’t implemented. This is because between now and 2020 the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/renewable-energy-target-8912tc%20link">Renewable Energy Target</a> will be driving new renewable energy generation into the market. At the moment there is a supply shortage, which is keeping prices high. So if electricity demand remains <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/EFI/2017-Electricity-Forecasting-Insights.pdf">relatively flat</a>, new generation will drive prices down.</p>
<p>The real changes won’t happen until after 2020. When Liddell power station in New South Wales <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-11/agl-appears-committed-to-closing-liddell-power-station/8893822">closes in 2022</a> wholesale prices will rise. This will happen with or without the NEG, albeit much faster without it. This is what underpins the convenient claims of an annual average A$120 drop in electricity bills.</p>
<p>That’s pretty much all that can be said about prices for now. We will have to wait until the full modelling is released to know for sure why prices rise more rapidly post-Liddell without the NEG. The <a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/sites/prod.energycouncil/files/publications/documents/Energy%20Security%20Board%20advice%20on%20the%20National%20Energy%20Guarantee.pdf">original proposal</a> from the Energy Security Board suggests that, with the guarantee, more supply, bidding behaviour and reduced risk to investors put downwards pressure on prices. </p>
<h2>What about renewables?</h2>
<p>The summary note contains only two other findings. First, under the NEG there will be investment in an additional 3,600 megawatts of “dispatchable generation capacity”. Second, <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/coalitions-neg-aims-to-engineer-an-early-death-for-big-solar-10699/">renewables will form only 5% more of the generation mix</a> by 2030 than if the NEG were not in place. </p>
<p>We’re still waiting to find out what “dispatchable generation capacity” actually means in the context of the NEG. There is no smoking gun for those who <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-governments-energy-policy-hinges-on-some-tricky-wordplay-about-coals-role-85843">insist the NEG is a Trojan horse for coal</a>. But similarly, anyone looking for the modelling to say anything about the future of energy storage will be disappointed. Watch this space.</p>
<p>A lot will be made of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-national-energy-guarantee-hit-pause-on-renewables-85978">relatively low levels of renewables</a> predicted by the NEG modelling. Under the existing <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/renewable-energy-target-8912">Renewable Energy Target</a>, renewables are already expected to account for around 23.5% of the generation mix in 2020 (not counting rooftop solar). The NEG might deliver only 32-36% in 2030 – and this figure appears to include rooftop solar.</p>
<p>But before we get too worked up, remember that this finding says nothing about the effectiveness of the NEG in cutting greenhouse emissions. The NEG and the two earlier proposals modelled by the Finkel Review – a <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-low-emissions-target-and-how-would-it-work-78927">clean energy target</a> and an <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/emissions-intensity-scheme-38019">emissions intensity acheme</a> – work in very similar ways and would produce very similar results. The fact that Finkel’s modelling forecasts 42% renewables by 2030, and the government’s modelling delivers 32-36% – using the same emissions reduction goal – just tells us that the modelling is different. </p>
<h2>Model behaviour</h2>
<p>As I have <a href="https://theconversation.com/finkels-new-energy-report-isnt-new-and-it-isnt-by-finkel-87763">pointed out here</a>, modelling is an inexact science. Its outcomes are a function of the assumptions you use and the data you shove in. Like any modelling, NEG modelling will no doubt be wrong to a greater or lesser degree. But whatever the specifics, one principle is clear: agreeing on a firm policy will help to lower prices. </p>
<p>If replacing existing generation with renewables is the cheapest way to reduce emissions, then that is what will happen under any of the schemes. The modelling then becomes irrelevant. </p>
<p>There is one proviso to this. And that is the other part of the NEG – the “reliability” part. It is not clear from the five-page summary how the reliability requirement has been factored in, and how this will influence the generation mix. It seems we will have to wait well beyond this week for more information on this; reports suggest that the reliability mechanism may not be fully designed until the middle of 2018. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-national-energy-guarantee-hit-pause-on-renewables-85978">Will the National Energy Guarantee hit pause on renewables?</a>
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<p>The biggest question about the NEG is whether it will lead to further concentration of market power in the retail and wholesale energy markets. It that were to happen, prices would probably go up, not down – creating yet more headaches for politicians, consumer watchdogs, and householders.</p>
<p>It is these two issues – the design of the reliability mechanism, and tackling market power – that energy ministers should really be focusing on. Australian energy customers will be the losers if the debate gets swamped by confected outrage about modelling and renewables. Ominously, another quick scan of Wednesday morning’s headlines suggests that confected outrage is winning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87943/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Blowers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As federal and state energy ministers gather to discuss the Turnbull government’s proposed National Energy Guarantee, many of the finer details of the modelling are not yet available.David Blowers, Energy Fellow, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/855982017-10-13T04:03:15Z2017-10-13T04:03:15ZAs the Clean Energy Target fizzles, what might replace it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190088/original/file-20171013-31418-1iqrkby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/indigoskies/6438065087/">Indigo Skies Photography/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Disclaimer: This article does not reflect my views about effective energy policy, which would ideally be <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-has-served-its-purpose-its-time-to-move-on-80973">comprehensive and deliver deep emissions reductions</a>. Rather, this column explores what options might be attractive to our present prime minister and energy minister.</em></p>
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<p><br></p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-cleanish-energy-target-gets-us-nowhere-84358">energy melodrama</a> continues to escalate. According to some interpretations, renewables are now so cheap that they <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/renewable-energy-wind-solar-generators-dont-need-subsidies/news-story/8f318a23496d55f7058b0d08f71cdf94">don’t need any subsidy</a>. Meanwhile, business concerns about energy policy uncertainty are <a href="https://www.aigroup.com.au/policy-and-research/mediacentre/releases/letter_to_PM_on_Energy_18_April_2017/">reaching a crescendo</a>, while voters see a government bumbling in the opposite direction to what much of the public actually wants. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the existing Renewable Energy Target (RET) needs replacement, not least because it only runs until 2020 anyway. It is also too simple: it does not incentivise “dispatchable” renewable energy – that is, technologies that include energy storage to stabilise a grid that depends on intermittent renewables. To be fair, we need to remember that the current RET model was first proposed in 1997 and introduced by the Howard government, in a very different situation.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coal-and-the-coalition-the-policy-knot-that-still-wont-untie-83565">Coal and the Coalition: the policy knot that still won't untie</a>
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<p>So we do need a new energy target in some form. A well-designed target will decline in cost as competition and innovation do their work; it would be an effective policy tool to support emerging activities. We might think of it as a government endorsement that helps to focus both industry and consumers. Some degree of certainty is needed to underpin investment. And, as I explain later, a well-designed approach improves system reliability and stability. </p>
<p>So how does the government encourage reliable, affordable, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-cleanish-energy-target-gets-us-nowhere-84358">cleanish</a> electricity supply while also meeting its other apparent criteria of supporting coal and not boosting renewable energy “too much”? On top of that, how does it deal with high gas prices, which increase the cost of gas-fired generation? And support Snowy 2.0? It’s a wicked problem. </p>
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<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/baffled-by-baseload-dumbfounded-by-dispatchables-heres-a-glossary-of-the-energy-debate-84212">Baffled by baseload? Dumbfounded by dispatchables? Here’s a glossary of the energy debate</a></em></p>
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<p>A dispatchable reliable energy target – a DRET – could be an attractive solution to a government in trouble. Superficially, it sounds like just a tweak of the popular RET. It mentions the right buzzwords. It could include incentives for “baseload coal”. It might even pass through the Senate.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-turnbull-close-to-finalising-energy-package-but-can-he-sell-it-85612">Grattan on Friday: Turnbull close to finalising energy package but can he sell it?</a>
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<h2>The present Renewable Energy Target</h2>
<p>It’s worth noting that the present RET certificate price was trending down nicely towards zero – until the Abbott government tried to kill it off and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-has-investment-in-renewable-energy-projects-stalled-34197">investment collapsed</a>. Renewable certificate prices (actually Large Generation Certificates, or LGCs) had fallen below A$30 due to competition. The Abbott government’s <a href="http://climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/2014-renewable-energy-target-review/report">own review</a> found that renewable energy was pushing down wholesale electricity prices by about as much as the cost of the certificates. The scheme was functioning effectively as a cheap net incentive for large-scale renewable energy. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the price for Small Technology Certificates (STCs) that subsidise rooftop solar on voters’ homes has remained high, but has been politically untouchable.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190072/original/file-20171012-31422-jbcgfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190072/original/file-20171012-31422-jbcgfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190072/original/file-20171012-31422-jbcgfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190072/original/file-20171012-31422-jbcgfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190072/original/file-20171012-31422-jbcgfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190072/original/file-20171012-31422-jbcgfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190072/original/file-20171012-31422-jbcgfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190072/original/file-20171012-31422-jbcgfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Large Generation Certificate price was trending down until investment stalled due to the uncertainty created by Abbott Government efforts to abolish the RET. Note: LGC=Large Generation Certificate STC=Small Technology Certificate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Clean Energy Regulator</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>DRET design options</h2>
<p>Under a DRET, variable renewable energy projects would need to incorporate or partner with facilities that could store energy, stabilise voltage and frequency, and help restart after a blackout. As the present energy market provides weak signals for these, and they would cost extra, the rationale for a subsidy exists, even for coal-supporting MPs who want to be re-elected. So the subsidy would shift from the energy source, to the delivery of reliable supply. </p>
<p>It would make sense to include incentives for demand-side action, too, as reducing demand <a href="http://www.aemo.com.au/Media-Centre/AEMO-and-ARENA-demand-response-trial-to-provide-200MW-of-emergency-reserves-for-extreme-peaks">reduces pressure on the supply system and energy prices</a>.</p>
<p>Another important question is how incentives can be delivered in ways that support efficient market operation. The present RET certificate approach sends a price signal, but leaves qualifying generators exposed to risk from varying wholesale electricity and certificate prices. </p>
<p>Alternatives such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-governments-new-energy-plans-will-leave-investors-less-confident-than-ever-79840">reverse auctions</a> linked to long-term contracts focus on competitive bidding as the “market” dimension of the subsidies. The successful bidders would also face market forces as they bid their output into the competitive wholesale market. </p>
<p>Reverse auctions potentially provide long term stability for service providers and consumers. These could be traditional Power Purchase Agreements, or the ACT government’s “<a href="http://www.environment.act.gov.au/energy/cleaner-energy/how-do-the-acts-renewable-energy-reverse-auctions-work">contract for difference</a>” approach. These approaches could be applied to energy efficiency measures and demand-side options.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-has-served-its-purpose-time-to-move-on-80973">The national electricity market has served its purpose, time to move on</a>
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<p>Extra features, such as local job creation and grid stabilisation, can be included in long-term contracts, as we have seen in state government programs in the ACT and, recently, Victoria.</p>
<p>An advantage of the reverse auction approach for a government is that it can be tweaked in response to changes in technologies, cost trends, demand and market rules, as we have seen with the Emission Reduction Fund. </p>
<h2>Where to for coal?</h2>
<p>As I look at the future of coal, I can’t help but be reminded of the famous comment by a Saudi sheikh in the 1970s: the stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones. </p>
<p>In a DRET model, new coal plant proposals could bid like other generators. But they would confront their own challenges to provide comprehensive services and meet potential extra requirements built into auctions, such as employment in a wide range of sectors and across broad geographical areas.</p>
<p>Coal plant is not “fast response”, so it may also need storage to meet response requirements. Also, each coal generation unit is large, so a failure at a critical time might not meet dispatchability and reliability criteria without support from other generators, demand response, storage or other solutions. </p>
<h2>The climate elephant</h2>
<p>A DRET would not actively address climate policy: this exclusion seems to be necessary for any energy policy to survive the Coalition party room. However, it is still likely to help to cut emissions. Future auctions could incorporate a carbon intensity or other climate dimension. And it would provide some certainty for investors in energy solutions.</p>
<p>A DRET would operate in a complex environment, where state and local governments, businesses, communities and individuals, and even the Commonwealth government, will continue to act to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-has-served-its-purpose-its-time-to-move-on-80973">achieve their own objectives</a>, including climate response.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<h4 class="border">Disclosure</h4><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Pears has worked for government, business, industry associations public interest groups and at universities on energy efficiency, climate response and sustainability issues since the late 1970s. He is now an honorary Senior Industry Fellow at RMIT University and a consultant, as well as an adviser to a range of industry associations and public interest groups. His investments in managed funds include firms that benefit from growth in clean energy. He has shares in Hepburn Wind. </span></em></p>As the Clean Energy Target fades away, perhaps a Dispatchable Reliable Energy Target will be innocuous enough to pass the Liberal party room and the Senate.Alan Pears, Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/844162017-09-28T01:44:33Z2017-09-28T01:44:33ZA year since the SA blackout, who’s winning the high-wattage power play?<p>It’s a year to the day since the entire state of South Australia was <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">plunged into darkness</a>. And what a year it’s been, for energy policy geeks and political tragics alike. </p>
<p>Parked at the western end of the eastern states’ electricity grid, South Australia has long been an outlier, in energy policy as well as geography. Over the past decade it has had a tempestuous relationship with the federal government, be it Labor or Coalition. As with <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-broken-81613">water policy</a>, the South Australians often suspect they are being left high and dry by their upstream neighbours. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-australias-energy-plan-gives-national-regulators-another-headache-74541">South Australia's energy plan gives national regulators another headache</a>
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<p>The policy chaos over the carbon price left the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/renewable-energy-target-8912">Renewable Energy Target</a> as a far more prominent investment signal than it would otherwise have been. South Australia carried on attracting wind farms, which earned <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/how-gas-profited-from-s-a-market-dominance-and-blamed-renewables-75801">more than their fair share of the blame</a> for high electricity prices.</p>
<p>On September 28, 2016, a “<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/south-australia-blackout-once-in-50year-storm-lashes-state-20160928-grqpks.html">once-in-50-year storm</a>” blew over a string of electricity pylons, tripping the whole state’s power grid. While the blackout, which lasted 5 hours in Adelaide and longer elsewhere, was still unfolding, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2016/s4547620.htm">critics of renewables took a leap into the dark</a> as part of a wider <a href="https://marchudson.net/2016/09/29/blame-games-and-framing-battles-over-renewables-in-south-australia/">blame game</a>.</p>
<p>Despite being described as a “<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629617301238?via%3Dihub">confected conflict</a>”, the skirmish was serious enough to prompt the federal government to commission Chief Scientist Alan Finkel’s <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-electricity-market-review">landmark review of the entire National Electricity Market</a>, with a deadline of mid-2017.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, in early December, federal environment minister Josh Frydenberg was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/06/josh-frydenberg-backtracks-on-emissions-trading-comments">forced to backtrack</a> after saying the Coalition was prepared to consider an emissions intensity scheme. SA Premier Jay Weatherill was unamused by the flip-flop and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/08/south-australia-says-states-could-go-it-alone-after-turnbull-rules-out-carbon-tax">threatened to get together with other states to go it alone on carbon pricing</a>. </p>
<p>February saw a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-15/sa-power-aemo-report-into-rolling-blackouts-during-heatwave/8273836">series of “load shedding” events</a> during a heatwave, which left some Adelaide homes once more without power and saw the grid wobble in NSW too. (It should be noted that the now infamous Liddell power station was unable to increase its output during the incident.)</p>
<h2>Policy by tweet</h2>
<p>It was then that Twitter entered the fray. The “accidental billionaire” <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Cannon-Brookes">Mike Cannon-Brookes</a> was asking Solar City chief executive Lyndon Rive how quickly a battery storage system might be up and running. Rive’s cousin, a certain <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk">Elon Musk</a>, intervened with his famous offer: </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"840032197637685249"}"></div></p>
<p>Within days, both Weatherill and Turnbull had had conversations with Musk, and Turnbull announced <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/16/turnbull-2bn-snowy-hydro-electric-expansion">a “Snowy Hydro 2.0” storage proposal</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Weatherill unveiled his <a href="http://ourenergyplan.sa.gov.au/">SA Energy Plan</a>, which the Guardian called a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/14/jay-weatherills-big-energy-call-is-a-survivalist-fix-of-last-resort">survivalist fix of last resort</a>”. We now know that the plan <a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/frontier-economics-led-by-power-expert-danny-price-paid-over-1m-to-advise-on-premiers-energy-plan/news-story/ff3cb71281fe9c238384a929f3d71d67">cost A$1 million to produce</a>.</p>
<p>Then, on March 16, at the launch of a <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/agl-goes-live-with-virtual-power-plant-linking-household-battery-storage-16810/">5-megawatt “virtual power plant”</a> in Adelaide, Weatherill had some choice words for Frydenberg who, entertainingly enough, was standing right next to him: </p>
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<p>I’ve got to say, it is a little galling to be standing here, next to a man that’s been standing up with his prime minister, bagging South Australia at every step of the way over the last six months… And for you to then turn around, in a few short months, when there’s a blackout, and point the finger at SA for the fact that our leadership in renewable energy was the cause of that problem is an absolute disgrace.“</p>
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<p>Frydenberg kept a notably low profile for a while after this.</p>
<h2>Finkel fires up</h2>
<p>In June, Finkel <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/21/chief-scientist-defends-electricity-market-review-against-claims-of-political-motivation">released his keenly awaited review</a>. A significant number of <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/06/16/who-are-the-liberal-mps-worried-about-malcolm-turnbulls-clean-energy-target/">Liberals</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/13/barnaby-joyce-ill-support-a-clean-energy-target-if-coal-is-included">Nationals</a> didn’t like his suggested Clean Energy Target, and immediately set about trying to insert coal into it.</p>
<p>Despite being conceived as an acceptable compromise, the Clean Energy Target was bashed from both sides. It was criticised as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/30/finkel-clean-energy-target-too-weak-for-paris-climate-goal-analysis-shows">too weak to reach Australia’s emissions target</a> and <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/finkels-clean-energy-target-little-more-than-states-business-as-usual-82074">little more than "business as usual”</a>, but was also “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/20/a-clean-energy-target-is-not-unconscionable-tony-abbott-wrecking-climate-policy-is">unconscionable</a>” to former Prime Minister Tony Abbott.</p>
<p>Weatherill’s next major stand-alongside was an even bigger deal than the Frydenberg stoush. On July 7, he and Musk announced that part of his earlier energy SA plan would become reality: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/07/tesla-to-build-worlds-biggest-lithium-ion-battery-in-south-australia">a 129-megawatt-hour lithium-ion battery farm</a>, to be built alongside a wind farm in Jamestown.</p>
<p>Speaking at a book launch, Weatherill <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/weatherill-lets-fly-at-right-wing-attack-against-renewables-46736/">used the f-word to describe specific media opponents of renewables</a>, earning himself opprobrium in the pages of The Australian, and admiration in more progressive areas of social media.</p>
<p>Federal treasurer Scott Morrison <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/07/27/sas-big-battery-just-another-big-thing">returned fire</a>, deriding the battery farm as “a <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-big-problem-what-to-do-with-our-ageing-super-sized-statues-83424">Big Banana</a>”.</p>
<p>However, there was another big announcement in Weatherill’s locker: a <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/aurora-what-you-should-know-about-port-augustas-solar-power-tower-86715/">A$650-million concentrated solar thermal power plant</a> to be built near Port Augusta, with potential for more.</p>
<p>Quietly, the “energy security target” component of the SA plan, which had been <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/sas-energy-policy-five-steps-forward-two-steps-back-25987/">rubbished</a>, was <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/s-a-puts-energy-security-target-on-back-burner-after-aemo-steps-in-86049">deferred</a>, while a renewables-based “<a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/30mw-battery-to-create-renewables-based-mini-grid-in-south-australia-63304">minigrid</a>” on the Yorke peninsula was announced. </p>
<h2>Whatever next?</h2>
<p>What will happen now? “Events, dear boy, events,” as Harold MacMillan <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3577416/As-Macmillan-never-said-thats-enough-quotations.html">didn’t say</a>. Musk is back in Adelaide <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-21/elon-musk-plans-adelaide-return-to-detail-revised-mars-mission/8732562">to talk about his Mars mission</a>, with an appearance <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-plans-big-battery-party-still-waiting-on-victoria-tender-56468/">scheduled for Jamestown</a>. Would anyone bet against another SA government announcement? More batteries? Electric cars? Space planes…?</p>
<p>The Jamestown battery should come online in December (or it’s free!). Weatherill will presumably be hoping that Turnbull’s government staggers on, bleeding credibility and beefing up the anti-Liberal protest vote until the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Australian_state_election,_2018">March 2018 state election</a>, and that they continue to make themselves look a like a rabble over Finkel’s Clean Energy Target. </p>
<p>At the same time, he will also fervently hope there isn’t another big power crisis, and that the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-24/sa-energy-plan-advertising-spend-waste-of-money-opposition-says/8738846">A$2.6 million of public money he spent making sure everyone knows about his energy plans</a> provides effective insulation from any shocks.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-can-teslas-giant-south-australian-battery-achieve-80738">Explainer: what can Tesla's giant South Australian battery achieve?</a>
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<p>The whole saga shows how policy windows can open up in unexpected ways. An attempt to blast a new technology fails, and a politician at state level sees no option but to act because of federal inadequacy. It’s happening in <a href="http://mashable.com/2017/06/06/governor-brown-china-climate-change/#6vkbDvPWrsqU">California too</a>.</p>
<p>Judging by his interviews with <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/jay-weatherill-on-hydrogen-load-shedding-community-activism-and-his-critics-60337/">me</a> and the Guardian’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/22/jay-weatherill-renews-warning-labor-states-could-go-it-alone-on-energy-policy">Katharine Murphy</a>, Weatherill has found his signature issue – making lemonade from the huge lemon he was served last September. As another <a href="https://indaily.com.au/opinion/2017/08/17/richardson-bad-news-good-labor/">commentator wrote</a>: </p>
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<p>Far from being the last nail in the Weatherill government’s electoral coffin, the power crisis has perversely breathed new life into Labor’s re-election hopes… It is turning its own failures on energy security into a single-issue platform on which to campaign.</p>
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<p>Weatherill is trying to build an <a href="https://hbr.org/2012/12/how-to-create-an-innovation-ec">innovation ecosystem</a> for clean energy technology. Announcing a tender last month, <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/s-calls-tender-next-generation-renewables-storage-23440/">Weatherill said</a> his government is “looking for the next generation of renewable technologies and demand-management technologies to maintain our global leadership”.</p>
<p>And when do applications for that tender close? Well, it may be a coincidence, but the <a href="https://service.sa.gov.au/cdn/ourenergyplan/assets/call-for-proposals-bulk-energy-storage-4-sept-2017.pdf">deadline is 5pm today</a> – exactly a year since his state’s darkest hour.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
What a year it’s been for fans of energy politics. And 12 months after the blackout, the policy heat is still being generated.Marc Hudson, PhD Candidate, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/830972017-08-28T06:45:04Z2017-08-28T06:45:04ZVictoria is the latest state to take renewable energy into its own hands<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183589/original/file-20170828-1572-7jnrar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Victorian government is aiming to boost renewable energy to 40%.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Changyang1230/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Victorian government’s intention, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-23/victoria-energy-target-of-40pc-by-2025-to-be-enshrined-in-law/8833276">announced last week</a>, to legislate its own state-based renewable energy target is the latest example of a state pursuing its own clean energy goals after expressing frustration with the pace of federal action. </p>
<p>The Andrews government has now confirmed its plan for 40% renewable energy by 2025, as well as an intermediate target of 25% clean energy by 2020. The policy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-renewables-target-joins-an-impressive-shift-towards-clean-energy-61084">first flagged last year</a> and now introduced as a bill in the state parliament, seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 16% by 2035. </p>
<p>At a general level, these actions are reflective of the increasing frustration states and territories have experienced at perceived inaction at the federal and even international levels. Neighbouring South Australia has also been pursuing clean energy, this month announcing plans to <a href="http://www.ecogeneration.com.au/south-australia-approves-150mw-concentrated-solar-thermal-plant/">develop one of the world’s biggest concentrated solar plants</a> in Port Augusta. </p>
<p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-23/victoria-energy-target-of-40pc-by-2025-to-be-enshrined-in-law/8833276">remarked</a> that “it up to states like Victoria to fill that void”. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-renewables-target-joins-an-impressive-shift-towards-clean-energy-61084">Victoria's renewables target joins an impressive shift towards clean energy</a>
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<p>It is also, of course, a product of growing concerns regarding domestic energy security and investment confidence. Victoria’s climate and energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio <a href="http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/renewable-energy-a-jobs-boom-for-victoria/">said</a>: “The renewable energy sector will now have the confidence to invest in renewable energy projects and the jobs that are crucial to Victoria’s future.”</p>
<h2>National plans?</h2>
<p>The Andrews government’s underlying objective is to reinforce, rather than undermine, federal initiatives such as the national <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/renewable-energy-target-scheme">Renewable Energy Target</a> and any future implementation of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/finkels-clean-energy-target-plan-better-than-nothing-economists-poll-82066">Clean Energy Target</a> recommended by the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-electricity-market-review">Finkel Review</a>.</p>
<p>But federal Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has apparently rejected this view, <a href="http://www.joshfrydenberg.com.au/guest/mediaReleasesDetails.aspx?id=413">claiming</a> that the new Victorian proposals run counter to the development of nationally consistent energy policy. “National problems require national solutions and by going it alone with a legislated state-based renewable energy target Daniel Andrews is setting Victoria on the South Australian Labor path for higher prices and a less stable system,” Frydenberg <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/victoria-ramps-up-renewable-energy-fight-with-15b-tender-20170822-gy222d">said</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/finkels-clean-energy-target-plan-better-than-nothing-economists-poll-82066">Finkel's Clean Energy Target plan 'better than nothing': economists poll</a>
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<p>A nationally consistent plan is somewhat unrealistic in view of the current fragmented, partisan framework in which energy policy is being developed. The federal government’s apparent reluctance to accept Finkel’s recommendation for a Clean Energy Target is generating uncertainty and unrest. </p>
<p>In this context, actions taken by states such as Victoria and South Australia can help to encourage renewable energy investment. Given that Australia has promised to reduce greenhouse emissions by 26-28% (on 2005 levels) by 2030 under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Climate Agreement</a>, it is hard to see how boosting renewable energy production is inconsistent with broader national objectives.</p>
<h2>The renewables target rationale</h2>
<p>Mandating a certain amount of renewable energy, as Victoria is aiming to do, helps to push clean energy projects beyond the innovation stage and into commercial development. It also helps more established technologies such as wind and solar to move further along the cost curve and become more economically competitive.</p>
<p>Renewable energy targets aim to stimulate demand for clean energy, thereby ensuring that these technologies have better economy of scale. Under both the federal and Victorian frameworks, electricity utilities must source a portion of their power from renewable sources. They can comply with these requirements with the help of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), of which they receive one for every megawatt hour of clean energy generated. </p>
<p>Independent power producers can sell their RECs to utilities to earn a premium on top of their income from power sales in the wholesale electricity market. As well as buying RECs, utilities can also invest in their own renewable generation facilities, thus earning more RECs themselves.</p>
<h2>Victoria’s situation</h2>
<p>Victoria’s proposed new legislation will serve an important purpose following the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hazelwood-power-station-from-modernist-icon-to-greenhouse-pariah-75217">retirement of the Hazelwood coal-fired power plant</a>. Renewable energy currently represents about 17% of the state’s electricity generation, and the Andrews government is aiming to <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/victoria-ramps-up-renewable-energy-fight-with-15b-tender-20170822-gy222d">more than double this figure by 2025</a>.</p>
<p>This year alone, Victoria has added an extra 685MW of renewable generation capacity, creating more than A$1.2 billion worth of investment in the process. If the new legislation succeeds in its aims, this level of investment will be sustained well into the next decade.</p>
<p>Under the bill’s proposals, D'Ambrosio will be required to determine by the end of this year the minimum renewables capacity needed to hit the 25% by 2020 target, and to make a similar decision by the end of 2019 regarding the 40% by 2025 target.</p>
<p>In mandating these milestones, the state is aiming to set out the exact size of the state’s transitioning energy market, in turn giving greater investment certainty to the renewable energy industry. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/closing-victorias-hazelwood-power-station-is-no-threat-to-electricity-supply-66024">Closing Victoria's Hazelwood power station is no threat to electricity supply</a>
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<p>Victoria’s renewable energy scheme is designed to work coherently with the federal <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/renewable-energy-target-scheme">Renewable Energy Target</a>, which given current usage projections is aiming to source 23.5% of national electricity consumption from renewables by 2020. </p>
<p>The federal government is yet to decide on any clean energy policy beyond the end of the decade, whether that be a Finkel-recommended Clean Energy Target or something else. In the absence of confirmed federal policy, the states have assumed the responsibility of accelerating renewable energy production through legislative initiatives designed to sustain and progress market development. This is consistent with federal commitments to global climate change imperatives. </p>
<p>It is hoped that these initiatives will act as a stepping stone for the eventual introduction of comprehensive state and federal clean energy regulation, and the advent of some much-needed national cohesion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83097/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victoria’s plan to legislate its own renewable energy target of 40% by 2025 shows how states are increasingly taking the energy policy reins away from the federal government.Samantha Hepburn, Director of the Centre for Energy and Natural Resources Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/829832017-08-25T04:26:22Z2017-08-25T04:26:22ZWA bathes in sunshine but the poorest households lack solar panels – that needs to change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183407/original/file-20170825-2449-284kjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar panels are still a rarity in WA's lower-income areas.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Orderinchaos/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Western Australian householders are living in “energy poverty”, according to our new Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre research report, <a href="http://bcec.edu.au/publications/power-to-people-wa-energy-future/">Power to the People: WA’s Energy Future</a>. </p>
<p>Although average household spending on electricity, gas and heating is no more than 4% of income, the figure rises considerably for those on lower incomes. In particular, more than a quarter of single-parent families say they spend more than 10% of their income on energy.</p>
<p>Single parents in particular are far more exposed to energy poverty, a trend that has grown over the past 10 years. Around one in ten of these households spends at least 15% of their income on energy costs. In some cases, this forces them to compromise on other essentials such as food and health care. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-the-east-coast-can-learn-from-wa-about-energy-76398">Five things the east coast can learn from WA about energy</a>
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<p>Rising energy costs, as well as a personal commitment to reducing greenhouse gases, are motivating many WA households to vote with their feet (or wallets) and adopt rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) panels at a dramatic rate. </p>
<p>In WA, the installed capacity of rooftop solar PV has grown by 37% in the past 18 months alone. Around 25% of suitable dwellings are now fitted with solar panels. This takes WA to third place among Australian states, behind Queensland (32%) and South Australia (31%). </p>
<p>If this trend continues, the state’s rooftop solar PV capacity is predicted to exceed 2,000 megawatts by 2022. That’s larger than all but one of WA’s power stations. </p>
<p><strong>Generating capacity from WA rooftop solar, 2016 to 2022</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183293/original/file-20170824-18728-19go9au.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183293/original/file-20170824-18728-19go9au.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183293/original/file-20170824-18728-19go9au.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183293/original/file-20170824-18728-19go9au.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183293/original/file-20170824-18728-19go9au.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183293/original/file-20170824-18728-19go9au.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183293/original/file-20170824-18728-19go9au.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183293/original/file-20170824-18728-19go9au.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Projections are based on predictions from a log linear regression of total MW of rooftop solar PV capacity, and reflect the growth both in the number of installations and the average MW output per solar PV installation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre/Clean Energy Regulator</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Similar trends are predicted at a national level, with consumer-bought rooftop solar PV expected to account for around <a href="https://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/">24% of electricity generation by 2040</a>. This is set to make Australia one of the most decentralised electricity networks in the world, with 45% of its total generating capacity coming from “behind the meter”.</p>
<h2>Haves and have-nots</h2>
<p>Rooftop solar is a popular option, but not all households are able to take advantage of this technology. Our report reveals a clear socioeconomic gradient in household solar installations in WA.</p>
<p>Panels are fitted to only 7.4% of suitable homes in areas in the lowest 10% on socioeconomic indicators. That figure rises to 16% in the next-lowest 10%, and the gap widens still further as income rises. Solar installation rates are around 30% in mid-to-high socioeconomic areas. </p>
<p><strong>Share of suitable WA homes with solar panels, by level of socioeconomic disadvantage</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183292/original/file-20170824-18691-4v3z6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183292/original/file-20170824-18691-4v3z6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183292/original/file-20170824-18691-4v3z6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183292/original/file-20170824-18691-4v3z6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183292/original/file-20170824-18691-4v3z6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183292/original/file-20170824-18691-4v3z6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183292/original/file-20170824-18691-4v3z6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183292/original/file-20170824-18691-4v3z6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Homes deemed suitable for solar PV include detached, semi-detached or terraced houses, but not strata-titled apartments or units.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre/Clean Energy Regulator/ABS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/poor-households-are-locked-out-of-green-energy-unless-governments-help-81987">Better incentives could boost these numbers</a>, especially in poorer areas. The initial upfront costs deter many homeowners, while most landlords have little financial motivation to install solar on rental properties.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poor-households-are-locked-out-of-green-energy-unless-governments-help-81987">Poor households are locked out of green energy, unless governments help</a>
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<p>Accessible, secure and affordable energy is essential to any well-functioning economy. And many citizens, communities and governments are acting on the imperative to move to a greener source. </p>
<p>Despite its huge amounts of wind and sunshine, WA lags behind other states both in committing to a clear renewable energy target and in its investment in large-scale renewable power projects.</p>
<p><strong>Renewable projects under construction or at commissioning stage in 2017</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183291/original/file-20170824-18693-1swa46q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183291/original/file-20170824-18693-1swa46q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183291/original/file-20170824-18693-1swa46q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183291/original/file-20170824-18693-1swa46q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183291/original/file-20170824-18693-1swa46q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183291/original/file-20170824-18693-1swa46q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183291/original/file-20170824-18693-1swa46q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183291/original/file-20170824-18693-1swa46q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Projects at the commissioning phase at the end of 2016 are not included in the total new capacity figure. Investment in the South Australia Hornsdale Wind Farm includes stages 1, 2 and 3. Data for ACT and NT not available; ACT is expected to draw most of its renewable energy from other states and territories.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre/Clean Energy Council Australia/various other sources</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>According to our report, WA’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2015 were 86.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent – fourth-ranked behind Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. This means WA contributed 16.1% of Australia’s national emissions that year. </p>
<p>But while other states and territories have adopted proactive emissions-reduction policies such as state-based renewable energy targets, WA has not yet taken substantial action on this front. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-solar-panel-and-battery-revolution-how-will-your-state-measure-up-76866">The solar panel and battery revolution: how will your state measure up?</a>
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<p>Here’s the likely game-changer: efficient, cost-effective <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/battery-storage-36232">battery storage</a> that can deliver power at the scale required. Storage is set to become vital, both for <a href="https://theconversation.com/slash-australians-power-bills-by-beheading-a-duck-at-night-27234">smoothing out domestic power consumption from solar panels</a> and for large-scale electricity generation. The <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-electricity-market-review">Finkel Review</a> has recommended that all future renewable energy projects be required to produce “dispatchable” power – that is, be able to store their power and release it at times of higher demand. </p>
<p>Greater efficiency in balancing energy demand over the course of the day, and across large-scale grid systems that feature a range of different weather conditions, is also likely to help overcome the intermittency problems associated with renewable sources.</p>
<p>Australia is on the cusp of an energy revolution, and the pace of change is only going to increase. WA, like every state, needs a clear roadmap to navigate the journey effectively, one that integrates existing and emerging energy technologies and maintains protections for families who cannot currently afford solar panels. </p>
<p>This will give greater certainty to the energy future we can all expect – and, critically, ensure that no one is left behind.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82983/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Cassells is a Principal Research Fellow with the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre. The Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre is an independent economic and social research organisation located within Curtin Business School at Curtin University. The Centre was established in 2012 with support from Bankwest (a division of Commonwealth Bank of Australia) and Curtin University. The views in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of Curtin University and/or Bankwest or any of their affiliates.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Duncan is Director of the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre. The Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre is an independent economic and social research organisation located within Curtin Business School at Curtin University. The Centre was established in 2012 with support from Bankwest (a division of Commonwealth Bank of Australia) and Curtin University. The views in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of Curtin University and/or Bankwest or any of their affiliates.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yashar Tarverdi is a Research Fellow at the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre. The Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre is an independent economic and social research organisation located within Curtin Business School at Curtin University. The Centre was established in 2012 with support from Bankwest (a division of Commonwealth Bank of Australia) and Curtin University. The views in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of Curtin University and/or Bankwest or any of their affiliates.</span></em></p>Western Australia has huge amounts of sunshine and wind, yet only 7% of its energy comes from renewables. What’s more, most households in the poorest suburbs are still locked out of the solar panel boom.Rebecca Cassells, Associate Professor, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin UniversityAlan Duncan, Director, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre and Bankwest Research Chair in Economic Policy, Curtin UniversityYashar Tarverdi, Research fellow, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/820662017-08-24T19:16:08Z2017-08-24T19:16:08ZFinkel’s Clean Energy Target plan ‘better than nothing’: economists poll<p>Few topics have attracted as much political attention in Australia over the past decade as emissions reduction policy.</p>
<p>Amid mounting concern over electricity price increases across Australia and coinciding with <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">blackouts in South Australia</a> and near-misses in New South Wales, the Australian government asked Chief Scientist Alan Finkel to provide a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-finkel-review-finally-a-sensible-and-solid-footing-for-the-electricity-sector-79118">blueprint for reform of the electricity industry</a>, in a context in which emissions reduction policy was an underlying drumbeat.</p>
<p>In a new poll of the <a href="https://business.monash.edu/economics-forum">ESA Monash Forum</a> of leading economists, a majority said that <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/publications/electricity-market-final-report">Finkel’s suggested Clean Energy Target</a> was not necessarily a better option than previously suggested policies such as an emissions trading scheme. But many added that doing nothing would be worse still.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-finkel-review-finally-a-sensible-and-solid-footing-for-the-electricity-sector-79118">The Finkel Review: finally, a sensible and solid footing for the electricity sector</a>
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<p>The Finkel Review’s <a href="http://coagenergycouncil.gov.au/publications/independent-review-terms-reference">terms of reference</a> explicitly precluded it from advising on economy-wide emissions reduction policy, and implicitly required it also to reject emission reduction policies such as an <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/carbon-tax-320">emissions tax</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/emissions-trading-scheme-6432">cap and trade scheme</a>.</p>
<p>One of the Finkel Review’s major recommendations was a <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/publications/electricity-market-final-report">Clean Energy Target (CET)</a>. This is effectively an extension of the existing <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/renewable-energy-target-8912">Renewable Energy Target</a> to cover power generation which has a greenhouse gas emissions intensity below a defined hurdle. Such generation can sell certificates which electricity retailers (and directly connected large customers) will be required to buy.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://business.monash.edu/economics-forum">ESA Monash Forum</a> panel was asked to consider whether this approach was “preferable” to an emission tax or cap and trade scheme. As usual, responses could range from strong disagreement to strong agreement with an option to neither agree nor disagree. Twenty-five members of the 53-member panel voted, and most added commentary to their response – you can see a summary of their verdicts below, and their detailed comments at the end of this article.</p>
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<p>A <a href="https://business.monash.edu/economics-forum/polls/the-finkel-review">headline result from the survey</a> is that a large majority of the panel does not think the CET is preferable to a tax or cap and trade scheme. None strongly agreed that the CET was preferable, whereas 16 either disagreed or strongly disagreed, and four agreed.</p>
<p>Of the four who agreed, three provided commentary to their response. Stephen King preferred the CET on the grounds of its ease of implementation but otherwise would have preferred a tax or cap and trade scheme. Michael Knox agreed on the basis that the CET was preferable to the existing Renewable Energy Target. Harry Bloch unconditionally endorsed the CET. </p>
<p>Of the five who neither agreed nor disagreed, three commented and two of them (Paul Frijters and John Quiggin) said there was not much to distinguish a CET from a tax or cap and trade scheme. Warwick McKibbin, who disagreed with the proposition, nonetheless also suggested that the CET, tax and cap and trade scheme were comparably effective if applied only to the electricity sector.</p>
<p>However, closer examination of the comments suggests much greater sympathy with Finkel’s CET recommendation than the bare numbers indicate. Even for those who strongly disagreed that the CET was preferable, none suggested that proceeding with a CET would be worse than doing nothing. But eight (Stephen King, Harry Bloch, Alison Booth, Saul Eslake, Julie Toth, Flavio Menezes, Margaret Nowak and John Quiggin) commented that proceeding with the CET would be better than doing nothing. Interestingly none of these eight explained why they thought doing something was better than doing nothing. Does it reflect a desire for greater investment certainty or a conviction that reducing emissions from electricity production in Australia is important?</p>
<p>Seven respondents (Stephen King, Alison Booth, Saul Eslake, Julie Toth, Gigi Foster, Lin Crase and John Quiggin) alluded to the political constraints affecting the choice, of which several drew attention to Finkel’s own observations. None of these seven suggested that the political constraint invalidated proceeding with the CET.</p>
<p>Of the 19 economists who provided comments on their response, 16 thought a tax or cap and trade scheme better than a CET. Numbers were equally drawn (three each) as to whether a tax or cap and trade was better than the other, with the remaining 10 invariant between a tax or cap and trade.</p>
<p>My overall impression is that in judging Dr Finkel’s CET recommendation, most of the panel might agree with the proposition that the “the perfect is the enemy of the roughly acceptable”. I surmise that in a decade past, many members of the panel would have held out for greater perfection, but now they think prevarication is more cost than benefit, and it is better to move on and make the best of the cards that have been dealt.</p>
<p>In emissions reduction policy the mainstream advice from Australia’s economists has not been persuasive. But this is hardly unique to Australia, as the pervasiveness of regulatory approaches in other countries shows. Perhaps an unavoidably compromised policy that is nonetheless well executed may be better than a brilliant policy that is poorly executed. Even if they could not have been more persuasive in design, Australia’s economists should still have much that is useful to contribute in execution. Hopefully more can be drawn into it.</p>
<p><em>Read the panel’s full responses below:</em></p>
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<p><em>This is an edited version of the <a href="https://business.monash.edu/economics-forum/polls/the-finkel-review/overview-of-poll-results-by-dr-bruce-mountain">summary of the report’s findings</a> originally published by the <a href="https://business.monash.edu/economics-forum">ESA Monash Forum</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82066/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A panel of leading economists has given its majority verdict on Alan Finkel’s proposed Clean Energy Target: it may not be the best possible emissions policy, but we should get on with it anyway.Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/753922017-04-03T06:44:05Z2017-04-03T06:44:05ZThree charts on: the incredible shrinking renewable energy job market<p><em>This is the first piece in our new Three Charts series, in which we aim to highlight interesting trends in three simple charts.</em> </p>
<p>Australia is embarking on a transition from an electricity system that relies largely on coal to one that may one day be 100% renewable. Last week’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/hazelwood-power-station-from-modernist-icon-to-greenhouse-pariah-75217">closure</a> of the Hazelwood coal-fired generator was an important milestone on this path.</p>
<p>The development of the renewables sector has not, however, been a smooth ride.</p>
<p>Estimates released by the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4631.0">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> suggest that the number of direct full-time equivalent jobs in renewable energy activities has continued to fall from its 2011-12 peak. Over a period in which the Australian economy saw <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Feb%202017?OpenDocument">around 600,000</a> additional people get jobs, employment in the renewables sector has been going backwards.</p>
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<h2>A small employer</h2>
<p>The renewables sector is estimated to have directly provided only 11,150 full-time equivalent jobs in 2015-16. The Australian labour force <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Feb%202017?OpenDocument">exceeds 12.6 million</a> people. The sector thus makes a small contribution to national employment, although one that is quite important in some local economies.</p>
<p>Around half of the jobs in renewables in 2015-16 were in installing (and maintaining) rooftop solar systems. Hydroelectricity generation provides 1,840 full-time equivalent jobs, a number that is likely to increase if <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-pushing-water-uphill-can-solve-our-renewable-energy-issues-28196">pumped storage</a> is to make a larger contribution to smoothing Australia’s electricity supply. Biomass provides 1,430 full-time jobs, and the wind industry around 620.</p>
<p>The fact that renewables is a small employer - especially once installations are up and running - is not a bad thing. If renewables were labour-intensive, they would be expensive.</p>
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<h2>Up then down</h2>
<p>The rise and then fall in renewables jobs is primarily a result of what has happened to installations of rooftop solar. The annual number of small-scale solar installations (PV and solar water heaters) <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/Forms-and-resources/Postcode-data-for-small-scale-installations#Smallscale-installations-by-installation-year">skyrocketed</a> over the four years to 2011. This rapid growth was spurred by generous <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4631.0Explanatory%20Notes12015-16">feed-in-tariffs</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100527035425/http://www.environment.gov.au/energyefficiency/solarhotwater/index.html">rebates</a>, and <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/chapter-5-small-scale-renewable-energy-scheme">rules for federal government solar credits</a>. There was also a <a href="https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/management-national-solar-schools-program">national program</a> to install solar panels on schools.</p>
<p>When these arrangements were curtailed, uptake fell. Annual installations of small-scale solar PV and water heaters are <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/Forms-and-resources/Postcode-data-for-small-scale-installations#Smallscale-installations-by-installation-year">down by more than 60%</a> from their peak. We are still installing a lot of new systems (more than 183,000 in 2016), but fewer than before. Employment estimates for small-scale solar closely track installation rates. The decline in employment in the wind energy sector is also worth noting. </p>
<p>The largest fall in renewables jobs has been in Queensland, a state that substantially tightened its feed-in-tariff scheme for rooftop solar in several steps from 2011 on. Queensland also holds the title of having Australia’s highest residential rooftop solar PV penetration rate (<a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4631.0">32%</a>). South Australia is not far behind, at 31%.</p>
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<h2>Ramping up large-scale renewables</h2>
<p>Recent years of policy <a href="https://theconversation.com/governments-ret-compromise-guarantees-uncertainty-for-renewables-41524">uncertainty</a> and backtracking have not helped the rollout of large-scale renewables. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/obituary-australias-carbon-price-29217">termination</a> of Australia’s carbon price and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-will-the-reduced-renewable-energy-target-affect-investment-41505">downwards renegotiation</a> of the Renewable Energy Target had <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-large-scale-renewable-investment-plunges-again-to-near-record-low-74163/">chilling</a> effects on investment.</p>
<p>Those events are now behind us. With continued <a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-are-getting-cheaper-all-the-time-heres-why-64799">reductions</a> in the cost of renewables, brighter days for the sector appear to be ahead, especially if our governments get policy settings right.</p>
<p>We can <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-29/australia-on-cusp-of-large-scale-solar-boom-experts-say/8377226?pfmredir=sm">expect</a> particularly rapid growth in jobs installing large-scale solar PV. Just last week, for example, it was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-30/new-solar-project-announced-for-sa-riverland/8400952">announced</a> that South Australia is to have a large new solar farm.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Burke receives funding under the Australian Research Council's Discovery Early Career Researcher Award scheme.</span></em></p>Estimates released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest that the number of direct full-time equivalent jobs in renewable energy activities has continued to fall from its 2011-12 peak.Paul Burke, Fellow, Crawford School, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/717032017-01-24T19:17:33Z2017-01-24T19:17:33Z2017 will be a big year for Australia’s energy system: here’s what to look out for<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154013/original/image-20170124-8093-b6chdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will 2017 be the year Australia sorts out its energy policy?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Power image from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>2017 is the year when many long-festering energy policy problems must be addressed. Our outdated energy market model is falling apart. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/heading-north-how-the-export-boom-is-shaking-up-australias-gas-market-52963">gas industry</a> is lining its pockets at the expense of Australian industry. Climate policy is urgent, but <a href="http://theconversation.com/australias-energy-sector-is-in-critical-need-of-reform-61802">controversial among key decision-makers</a>. Our <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/gas/trumps-americafirst-energy-policy-looms-as-lng-threat-20170122-gtw87d">fossil fuel exports</a> are under threat from global forces.</p>
<p>The objectives are clear: provide reliable, affordable and low-carbon energy services to households and business, and build a sustainable energy export sector.</p>
<p>The problem is that there is little agreement on how we interpret and frame these goals, let alone how to achieve them. Some see threat where others see opportunity. Powerful interests are keen to protect their investments. Meanwhile diverse competitors are emerging from many directions and consumers clamour for equity, rights, affordability and choice.</p>
<p>These debates are set in a context of <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/publications/energy-market-preliminary-report">Chief Scientist Alan Finkel’s review of the sector</a>, a <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/review-climate-change-policies">federal review of climate policy</a>, and debate about <a href="http://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/01/24/08/09/govt-sticks-by-renewable-energy-target">extending the Renewable Energy Target</a>.</p>
<p>Australian <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-08/electricity-industry-push-for-a-carbon-price/8104642">business is calling for certainty</a> in energy and climate policy: that’s one thing they can’t be certain they’ll get this year. But there will be some useful groundwork.</p>
<h2>Into the jungle</h2>
<p><a href="http://joshfrydenberg.com.au/guest/opinionDetails.aspx?id=225">The energy and environment minister, Josh Frydenberg,</a> has criticised state governments for introducing uncoordinated and overly aggressive renewable energy policies. </p>
<p>He is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-29/renewable-targets-bring-challenges-to-stability/7887280">seeking “harmonisation”</a>, which is code for capping growth of renewable energy, as he and his prime minister struggle to satisfy the rampant extreme right within their party.</p>
<p>But state governments know supporting renewable energy is a vote winner. The economics and climate pressures are shifting <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/seven-energy-charts-that-will-cheer-and-frighten-about-australia-and-the-world-20161206-gt53fq.html">in favour of renewable energy</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.environment.act.gov.au/energy/cleaner-energy/how-do-the-acts-renewable-energy-reverse-auctions-work">ACT’s “contracts for difference” auction</a> approach to renewables has reduced risk for project proponents while delivering low-cost renewable energy projects additional to the RET, and delivering ambitious climate targets. Others are copying.</p>
<p>The problem for the minister is that the nature of the energy sector has changed from a centralised, top-down, slowly changing system dominated by big businesses, governments and large investments to a chaotic, decentralised, diverse and rapidly changing jungle. </p>
<p>Even if state governments could be brought into line, local governments, the private sector, households and community groups will pursue their agendas. Competitive democracy is at work.</p>
<p>So we may see a rethink of the design and operation of energy markets in 2017. Governments will focus on reliability, energy security, consumer rights and providing fair access for emerging competitors balanced by higher expectations.</p>
<h2>Reliable supply</h2>
<p>Debates in the wake of the <a href="http://energyservices.com.au/alan-pears-on-basslink-blues-and-abatement-buy-in/">Basslink failure</a> and <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/energy-minister-josh-frydenberg-says-south-australia-blackout-raises-questions-about-renewables-20160928-grques.html">South Australia’s blackout</a> suggest that few politicians, industry participants and commentators have a comprehensive understanding of the fundamentals of delivering reliable and secure energy services in a modern world.</p>
<p>But it’s not just about having enough <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-05/south-australian-blackouts-a-case-of-history-repeating/8093612">well-maintained energy supply</a>. We can now manage demand by using energy more efficiently, actively managing demand, and storing energy. </p>
<p>We can then use a mix of supply-side options to satisfy this demand. For instance, we can install storage in regional pumped hydro dams and at solar thermal generators. We can transport electricity via batteries in electric vehicles instead of power lines.</p>
<p>We must face new challenges, such as increasingly extreme weather events and bushfire risks from power lines, without disrupting consumers. And consumer rights must be protected when they may have equipment and services provided by multiple energy businesses.</p>
<p>So appliance manufacturers, distributed energy and storage providers will need to incorporate new features into their products and meet tougher performance standards, to play their part in maintaining system reliability and security. </p>
<p>In return, governments will have to open up access to the electricity market and encourage investment in a smarter, distributed energy system.</p>
<p>2017 is the year when a new framework for our electricity service system must be designed.</p>
<h2>Reducing demand</h2>
<p>Australian policymakers seem to have a blind spot on energy efficiency. Energy efficiency plays a key role in managing electricity demand. For example, energy efficiency didn’t appear to rate a mention following the South Australian blackout. The draft Finkel Review focuses on supplying electricity, mentioning energy efficiency ten times, but only in passing.</p>
<p>Yet the International Energy Agency describes energy efficiency as “<a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/october/energy-efficient-prosperity-the-first-fuel-of-economic-development.html">the first fuel</a>” – cutting demand is the same as building more supply, and cheaper. It could make the biggest contribution to cutting fossil fuel carbon emissions out to 2030. </p>
<p>Research by many groups such as <a href="http://climateworks.com.au/project/national-projects/pathways-deep-decarbonisation-2050-how-australia-can-prosper-low-carbon">Climateworks</a> and <a href="http://bze.org.au/publications-overview/">Beyond Zero Emissions</a> has shown that many energy efficiency measures actually save money while cutting carbon emissions, so have a “negative” carbon cost.</p>
<p>Despite ongoing analysis and adjustment, energy efficiency and demand management have not captured significant roles in the <a href="http://www.efa.com.au/Library/David/Published%20Reports/2011/RAP_Crossley_DSParticipationAustralianNatlElectricityMkt.pdf">National Electricity Market</a>. The National Electricity Objective, which sets the overall focus of the electricity market, focuses on the price of electricity that consumers pay, not the total cost of delivering energy services (which should include carbon). This undermines focus on actions that reduce the amount of energy needed.</p>
<p>Among the original 1992 draft objectives in the <a href="http://www.efa.com.au/Library/NationalGridProtocol_1992.pdf">National Grid Management Protocol</a> was:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>To provide a framework for long-term least-cost solutions to meet future power supply demands including appropriate use of demand management</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Our electricity market could have been a very different creature.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-energy-productivity-plan-promises-more-bang-for-our-buck-but-lacks-commitment-53734">National Energy Productivity Plan</a> is a positive step forward. But it is poorly funded (A$18 million was allocated by COAG) and has vague governance. Yet it is supposed to deliver a large chunk of our 2030 emissions reduction target.</p>
<p>As with renewable energy, <a href="http://www.delwp.vic.gov.au/energy/renewable-energy/victorias-renewable-energy-targets">states and territories are filling the vacuum</a>.</p>
<p>There is also emerging support for the concept of energy productivity. This goes beyond energy efficiency and aims to deliver more economic value from each unit of energy consumed. The Australian Association for Energy Productivity and Climateworks have published <a href="http://climateworks.com.au/project/current-project/australias-energy-productivity-potential">major reports</a> on doubling energy productivity by 2030, while <a href="http://www.2xep.org.au/2xep-foundations-the-opportunity.html">A2EP</a> has worked with business to develop sector <a href="http://www.2xep.org.au/">roadmaps and an “innovation scan”</a>.</p>
<p>A much stronger focus on improving energy productivity may well be an outcome of the climate review. If so, it will play a significant role in reshaping our energy future. But it will require strong leadership, cultural change and policy intervention beyond past levels.</p>
<h2>Keeping prices under control</h2>
<p>Energy markets are failing to deliver on their objective of low prices, reliability and protection of the “long-term interests of consumers”. It is increasingly clear that emerging nimble technologies and business models are outflanking traditional structures. 2017 seems to be the year it is coming to a head.</p>
<p>Gas prices have been driven up by failure to manage impacts of a tripling of east coast gas demand from three Queensland LNG export plants. <a href="http://blog.aigroup.com.au/energy-prices-whats-going-on/">Industrial gas users</a> are struggling to secure reasonably priced, long-term contracts.</p>
<p>The high gas prices and shortages at winter peak times have <a href="http://theconversation.com/south-australias-electricity-price-woes-are-more-due-to-gas-than-wind-62824">driven up electricity prices</a>. In the wholesale electricity market, the highest bidder sets the price for all power stations. </p>
<p>So if that’s an expensive gas generator, all generators are paid handsome prices, regardless of how much it costs them to generate electricity. Over time, these prices flow over into electricity bills.</p>
<p>The solution for gas is <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-solution-to-australias-gas-crisis-is-not-more-gas-63443">not necessarily more gas supply</a>. Decades of low gas prices have meant that Australian industry and households use gas very inefficiently, so there is substantial scope to save gas.</p>
<p>There is increasing potential to <a href="http://energy.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/1993309/switching-off-gas-an-examination-of-declining-gas-demand-in-eastern-australia.pdf">switch from gas to electricity</a> and renewable fuels. Regional gas storage (or electricity storage) could reduce peak gas demand, reducing price spikes. </p>
<p>In any case, our gas industry seems to lack a social licence to increase gas production from coal seams, and we will need to cut fossil gas demand to meet our medium-term climate targets.</p>
<p>2017 is looking like a busy and challenging year across the energy sector.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71703/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Pears has worked for government, business, industry associations public interest groups and at universities on energy efficiency, climate response and sustainability issues since the late 1970s. He is now an honorary Senior Industry Fellow at RMIT University and a consultant, as well as an adviser to a range of industry associations and public interest groups. His investments in managed funds include firms that benefit from growth in clean energy.</span></em></p>The goals are clear: clean, cheap, reliable energy. But no-one can agree how we get there.Alan Pears, Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.