tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/resilient-design-17918/articlesResilient design – The Conversation2019-03-03T19:05:47Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1126072019-03-03T19:05:47Z2019-03-03T19:05:47ZTownsville floods show cities that don’t adapt to risks face disaster<p>A flood-ravaged Townsville has captured public attention, highlighting the vulnerability of many of our cities to flooding. The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-15/queensland-floods-special-climate-statement/10816184">extraordinary amount of rain</a> is just one aspect of the disaster in Queensland’s third-biggest city. The flooding, increasing urban density, the management of the Ross River Dam, and the difficulties of dealing with byzantine insurance regulations have left the community with many questions about their future. </p>
<p>These questions won’t be resolved until we enhance the resilience of cities and communities against flooding. Adaptation needs to become an integral part of living with the extremes of the Australian environment. I discuss how to design and create resilient urban landscapes later in this article.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-floods-are-so-huge-the-only-way-to-track-them-is-from-space-111083">Queensland's floods are so huge the only way to track them is from space</a>
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<h2>Flood risk and insurance</h2>
<p>Another issue that affects many households and businesses is the relationship between insurance claims and <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/63766">1-in-100-year flood event overlay maps</a>. Projected rises in flood risks under climate change have led to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/20/townsville-homes-may-become-uninsurable-due-to-flooding-from-climate-change">concerns that parts of Townsville and other cities will become “uninsurable”</a> should the costs of cover become prohibitive for property owners. </p>
<p>Council flood data <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/63766">used for urban planning and land-use strategies</a> is also used by insurers to assess the flood risk to individual properties. Insurers then price the risk accordingly. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-in-resilience-what-city-planners-can-learn-from-hobarts-floods-96529">Lessons in resilience: what city planners can learn from Hobart's floods</a>
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<p>However, in extraordinary circumstances, when the flooded land is actually larger than the area marked by the flood overlay map, complications emerge. In fact, that part of the community living outside the map’s boundaries is considered flood-free. Thus, those pockets of the community may have chosen not to have flood insurance and not have emergency plans, which leaves them even worse off after floods. This is happening in Townsville. </p>
<p>Yet this is nothing new. Many people experienced very similar circumstances in 2011. Flood waters covered as much land as Germany and France combined. Several communities were left on their knees. </p>
<p>Notwithstanding the prompt and vast response of the federal government and Queensland’s state authorities, a few years later Townsville is going through something alarmingly similar.</p>
<h2>Adaptation to create resilient cities</h2>
<p>To find a solution, we need to rethink how to implement the <a href="https://www.disaster.qld.gov.au/dmg/Prevention/Pages/3-5.aspx">Queensland Emergency Risk Management Framework</a>. That is no easy task. However, it starts with shifting the perspective on what is considered a risk – in this case, a flooding event. </p>
<p>Floods, per se, are not a natural disaster. Floods are part of the natural context of Queensland as can be seen below, for instance, in the <a href="https://www.qhatlas.com.au/content/channel-country">Channel Country</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Floods are part of the Australian landscape. Here trees mark the seasonal riverbeds in the Queensland outback between Cloncurry and Mount Isa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cecilia Bischeri</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The concept of adaptation as a built-in requirement of living in this environment then becomes pivotal. In designing and developing future-ready cities, we must aim to build resilient communities. </p>
<p>This is the ambitious project I am working on. It involves different figures and expertise with a shared vision and the support of government administrations that are willing to invest in a future beyond their elected term of office.</p>
<h2>Ideas for Gold Coast Resilientscape</h2>
<p>I live and work in the City of Gold Coast. Water is a fundamental part of the city’s character and beauty. In addition to the ocean, a complex system of waterways shapes a unique urban environment. However, this also exposes the city to a series of challenges, including flooding. </p>
<p>Last September, <a href="https://www.gchaveyoursay.com.au/industryhub/news_feed/updated-flood-overlay-maps">an updated flood overlay map</a> was made available to the community. The map takes into account the projections of a 0.8 metre increase in the sea level and 10% increases in storm tide intensity and rainfall intensity. </p>
<p>These factors are reflected in the 1-in-100-year flood overlay. It shows undoubtedly that the boundaries between land and water are changeable.</p>
<p>Building walls between the city and water as the primary flood protection strategy is not a solution. A rigid border can actually intensify the catastrophe. New Orleans and the <a href="https://soundwaves.usgs.gov/2006/01/">levee failures</a> during the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 provide a stark illustration of this. </p>
<p>Instead, what would happen and what would our cities look like if we designed green and public infrastructures that embody flooding as part of the natural context of our cities and territory?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/design-for-flooding-how-cities-can-make-room-for-water-105844">Design for flooding: how cities can make room for water</a>
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<p>The current project, titled RESILIENTSCAPE: A Landscape for Gold Coast Urban Resilience, considers the role of architecture in enhancing the resilience of cities and communities against flooding. The proposal, in a nutshell, explores the possibilities that urban landscape design and implementation provide for resilience. </p>
<p>RESILIENTSCAPE focuses on the Nerang River catchment and the Gold Coast Regional Botanic Gardens, in the suburb of Benowa. The river and gardens were adopted as a case study for a broader strategy that aims to promote architectural solutions for a resilient City of Gold Coast. The project investigates the possibility of using existing green pockets along the Nerang River to store and retain excess water during floods. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Gold Coast Regional Botanic Gardens is one of the green areas along the Nerang River that could be used to store and retain flood water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_Coast_Regional_Botanic_Gardens_(08).jpg">Batsv/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>These green spaces, however, will not just serve as “water tanks”. If mindfully planned, the green spaces can double up as public parks and facilities. This would enrich the community’s social realm and maximise their use and return on investment. </p>
<p>The design of a landscape responsive to flooding can, by improving local urban resilience, dramatically change the impact of these events. </p>
<p>The goal of creating urban areas that are adaptive to an impermanent water landscape is the main driver of the project. <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/3068730/this-new-orleans-neighborhood-is-fighting-flooding-by-welcoming-it">New Orleans</a> after <a href="https://theconversation.com/disappearing-acts-reflecting-on-new-orleans-10-years-after-katrina-46834">Hurricane Katrina</a> and<a href="https://archpaper.com/2017/10/five-years-sandy-nyc-update-flood-resilience-zoning/"> New York</a> after <a href="https://theconversation.com/frankenstorm-sandy-wreaks-havoc-on-nyc-floods-cities-10420">Sandy</a> are <a href="https://www.nisconsortium.org/nisc-activities/neworleansfloodresexp/">investing heavily in this direction</a> and promoting <a href="http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/">international design competitions</a> and community participation to mould a more resilient future. Queensland, what are we waiting for?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-dont-occur-randomly-so-why-do-we-still-plan-as-if-they-do-93371">Floods don't occur randomly, so why do we still plan as if they do?</a>
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<p><em>This article has been updated to clarify the use of flood data by insurers in assessing risk and the cost of cover.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112607/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cecilia Bischeri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Amid fears that parts of Townsville and other Australian cities might become “uninsurable”, making urban areas more resilient and adaptable to flooding is becoming more urgent.Cecilia Bischeri, Lecturer in Architecture, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/589792016-06-08T03:59:10Z2016-06-08T03:59:10ZTaking the city’s pulse: we need to link urban vitality back to the planet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125477/original/image-20160607-31928-1725am8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Much of the 'smart cities' rhetoric is dominated by the economic, with little reference to the natural world and its plight. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-193340183/stock-photo-female-hand-hold-d-rendered-earth-globe-environmental-backgrounds-eco-concept.html?src=pd-same_artist-195006554-mCuBRTzOFXHget__7RotGg-7">Ase from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Back in the 1960s, the influential urban planner and journalist <a href="http://en.m/wikipedia.org/Jane_Jacobs">Jane Jacobs</a> put American cities under the microscope. Jacobs was <a href="http://nchchonors.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/jacobs-jane-intro-death-and-life-of-great-cities-intro.pdf">aiming to explain, and suggest ways of remedying</a>, the hollowing out, or “<a href="http://designrochester.org/forum/2014/4/1/the-doughnut-effect">doughnut effect</a>”, which left previously well-functioning city centres rundown and devoid of new blood.</p>
<p>The effect was less dramatic in Australian cities, which had few, if any, residential populations in their central business districts until comparatively recently. And many of the innermost suburbs that surrounded the CBDs were industrialised and yet to feel the decline of manufacturing. </p>
<p>Of course, today the <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/940671">situation is completely reversed across Western cities</a>. The emergence of the service economy and explosive growth of professional classes are promoting gentrification and squillion-dollar property values.</p>
<p>Jacobs’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-might-jane-jacobs-say-about-smart-cities-58278">conditions for a vibrant city life</a> were that districts must serve at least two functions to attract persons of different purposes around the clock. Further, blocks must be small, with many opportunities for pedestrians to interact and a diverse range of buildings. Finally, there needed to be reasonable density. The idea was that <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-should-design-smart-cities-for-getting-lost-56492">“vitality” had a lot to do with chance encounters</a>.</p>
<h2>Digital entanglement</h2>
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<span class="caption">Digital interconnectivity is increasingly taken to be a measure of a city’s vitality.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-404022886/stock-photo-wifi-icon-and-city-scape-and-network-connection-concept.html?src=cjXwsYVTIVfrGP05HU0XQg-1-46">Ekaphon Maneechot from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p>Jacobs’ encounters have now been supplemented if not entirely supplanted by social media. Enter some Italian researchers who hit upon the idea of mining “big data”. In this case, they <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601107/data-mining-reveals-the-four-urban-conditions-tha-create-vibrant-city-life/#/set/id/601109/">used mobile phone calls cross-referenced to satellite-derived records</a> such as <a href="https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=5/51.500/-0.100">Open Street Map</a> to gauge where precisely this feverish activity was happening across six of Italy’s large cities.
(In corroboration of Jacobs’ thesis, the best places were found to be “day end points” with concentrations of office workers at large, as well as small streets and blocks with historic buildings.)</p>
<p>There’s a sense that this <a href="http://communications.elsevier.com/nl/jsp/m.jsp?c=%40Bli2ULd7TjU5ahspCNrpY2%2BS5AtJyua%2FvpjVRtLlSic%3D">“interconnectivity” is becoming a signal of city vitality/vibrancy</a>. The two elements are becoming <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/terms/quantum_entanglement.htm">entangled like subatomic particles</a>.</p>
<p>Moreover, it’s a natural fit with the vogue for blending IT with strategic planning. The new ministerial portfolio, <a href="https://delimiter.com.au/2016/02/15/turnbulls-digital-transformation-office-gets-a-new-minister/">cities and digital transformation</a>, exemplifies this.</p>
<h2>Smart city buzz</h2>
<p>You don’t have to venture far into urban policy space before coming across the idea of the “<a href="https://sourceable.net/smart-cities-plan-a-blueprint-for-the-future/">smart city</a>”. There’s a near-continuous run of <a href="http://connectexpo.com.au/smartcities.html">conferences on the topic</a> and even a <a href="https://cities.dpmc.gov/au/">Turnbull government plan</a>. The plan features, among other measures, a blend of big-data thinking, with “better benchmarking of city performance”, and the prescriptions set out in Edward Glaeser’s 2013 book, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/books/review/Silver-t.html?_r=0">Triumph of the City</a>.</p>
<p>Glaeser views cities as places where human ingenuity can flourish and skills are developed and refined – a combination driving economic and technological advance. He believes increased densification, including a “vertical city” with yet higher stacks of buildings, is integral to achieving these objectives. </p>
<p>Glaeser, however, illustrates complexities in this debate. Jacobs opposed the view that high-rise cities create beneficial interactions. And concern is growing that increased reliance on digital communication will radically reduce urban human interaction.</p>
<h2>Reckoning with a cantankerous planet</h2>
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<span class="caption">High-rise cities face particular problems in a warming world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-129589943/stock-photo-urban-road-in-the-evening.html?src=x13h18ciO3yJgJehtNHskw-1-148">zhangyang13576997233 from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/blog/a-smart-city-must-learn-to-be-resilient-too/">Smart cities need to be “resilient”</a> if they’re to counter, for example, Paul Gilding’s “<a href="https://paulgilding.com/the-great-disruption/">great disruption</a>”. This includes <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-25/India-heatwave-kills-hundreds/6496314">life-threatening heat</a>, desiccation and killer <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/04/world/fort-mcmurray-fire-canada/">peri-urban fires</a>. High-rise cities may prove to be the least adaptable human constructions in an era of fundamental change and add considerably to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-are-cities-warmer-than-the-countryside-53160">urban heat island effect</a></p>
<p>Should an economic perspective – like <a href="http://www.technologydecisions.com.au/content/gov-tech-review/article/smart-city-stakes-getting-higher-891635173?">this</a>, for instance – remain the main if not the sole focus for cities? This in a year when <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-hemisphere-joins-north-in-breaching-carbon-dioxide-milestone-59260">atmospheric carbon reached an irreversible 400ppm</a>; the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/27/opinion/coral-vs-coal.html?_r=0">Great Barrier Reef’s coral is bleaching</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-effects-of-2016-el-nino-trumped-climate-change-in-the-alberta-wildfires-59201">wildfires have destroyed towns and cities in Canada</a>; India has recorded its <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/20/india-records-its%20-hottest-day-ever-as-temperature-hits-51c-thats-1238f">hottest day on record 51°C</a>; <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36458794">Paris has been heavily flooded</a>; and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/22/silicon-valley-sea-level-rise-google-facebook-flood-risk">sea-level rise threatens to inundate Silicon Valley</a>, the spiritual home of start-ups – not to mention our home-grown variety of <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/sydney-storms-narrabeencollaroy-beach-lashed-by-large-seas-20160605-gpbvvw.html">storm surge, erosion</a> and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2016/jun/06/wild-weather-flood-warnings-victoria-tasmania-storm-sydney-south-coast-live">flooding</a>. </p>
<p>Is there something we’re missing? In the rhetoric surrounding smart cities it’s difficult to unearth specific reference to the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/19/humans-damaging-the-environment-faster-than-it-can-recover-report-finds">natural world and its current plight</a>. And when there is, it’s often a few throwaway lines about the value of green space in protecting biological diversity and threatened species. </p>
<p>Contrast this with the growing awareness of the <a href="https://workwithnaturetnc.gofundraise.com.au/cms/benefits-of-working-with-nature">benefits to our psyche of exposure to the natural world</a> (even acting as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/forget-siestas-green-micro-breaks-could-boost-work-productivity-42356">boost to productivity in the workplace</a>).</p>
<p>Set these observations against the revelation that today’s children – the inheritors of the smart city – are <a href="http://www.treehugger.com/culture/children-spend-less-time-outside-prison-inmates.html#ixzz44K2JeW6U">spending less time outdoors than prisoners</a>. This has occurred in a generation for whom the environment is unlikely to be mainstream given that <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/nature-not-as-sexy-as-stuff-on-aniphone-20111125-1nyh4.html">their reality is ultimately what appears on a screen</a>. Digital connectivity in low-amenity vertical communities is likely to prove a poor substitute for the kind of city Jacobs advocated.</p>
<p>Reconnecting kids and others requires rejigging our perspective, as well as starting to look out for <a href="https://theconversation.com/concrete-jungle-cities-adapt-to-growing-ranks-of-coyotes-cougars-and-other-urban-wildlife-43588">vestiges of wildlife</a> that has <a href="https://theconversation.com/concrete-jungle-well-have-to-do-more-than-plant-trees-to-bring-wildlife-back-to-our-cities-51047">sought refuge</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/blocks-and-flocks-why-are-some-bird-species-so-successful-in-cities-56279">in our cities</a>. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-feed-growing-cities-we-need-to-stop-urban-sprawl-eating-up-our-food-supply-49651">providing for local food production</a> is as big as big data itself, but that’s something for another day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58979/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Fisher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The rhetoric of ‘smart cities’ is dominated by the economic, with little reference to the natural world and its plight. Truly smart and resilient cities need to be more in tune with the planet.Peter Fisher, Adjunct Professor, Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/565122016-05-25T00:58:42Z2016-05-25T00:58:42ZWhat social insects can teach us about resilient infrastructure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120445/original/image-20160428-30982-f3hypd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Social insects such as bees live in a common nest site.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Peter Komka</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Accidents, natural disasters and random or targeted attacks can cripple human infrastructure. Our transportation networks, supply chains and communication networks are increasing in size and becoming more complex as our populations grow. </p>
<p>How do we protect those networks from <a href="https://theconversation.com/hot-cities-the-smart-response-to-urban-heat-threats-55767">becoming vulnerable</a> and failing? Social insects may provide some inspiration. </p>
<p>Social insects, such as ants, bees and wasps, live in a common nest site. They:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>work together to raise nest mates;</p></li>
<li><p>have one (or a few) “queens”;</p></li>
<li><p>have fertile females (the queens) that produce all of the nest mates; and</p></li>
<li><p>have overlapping generations, with young and old individuals living together. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Each individual within a nest behaves a bit like a neuron in a brain. They interact and react to the behaviour of the closest neighbours living within the nest. This social behaviour can lead to impressive feats, such as termites building large mounds or ants working together to form bridges or rafts. </p>
<p>It also provides the nest with a certain amount of resilience when faced with disruptions. By working together, a small failure can be fixed before it becomes a large failure. This is called collective behaviour. It is seen across many species, including insects, fish, birds and humans.</p>
<p>We can already draw parallels between human and social insect societies. But the continued study of collective behaviour has implications in maths, physics and robotics. It could help us design better, more resilient infrastructure.</p>
<h2>Contributing factors</h2>
<p>Two factors that lead to social insect resilience are decentralised control, and redundancy and job-switching behaviour. </p>
<p>In insect societies, there is no leader and no blueprint. This decentralised control means every individual is essentially replaceable, allowing colonies to be resistant to the loss of individuals. </p>
<p>Also, damage to the system – the colony – can be dealt with as it happens, without the need for time-consuming communications with managers. Human systems are becoming more and more decentralised, often through reliance on the internet, yet even our internet services are becoming more centralised. </p>
<p>Think about the streamlined nature of Google. It provides not only a search engine, but an email service, a calendar and Google documents – among other services. It is much easier and more convenient to manage our online lives through a single centralised service. However, if an aspect of Google gets corrupted through an online attack, the cascading failures through the system could cripple access to many of those services. </p>
<p>Despite the phrase as “busy as a bee”, many social insect colonies actually maintain a large number of seemingly “lazy” individuals that don’t work. These individuals, known as <a href="http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/z85-113#.VyGCMqN94vo">redundant individuals or inactive workers</a>, act as a safety net that allows a nest to respond rapidly to a disruption – such as a loss of workers, or a predator attack. </p>
<p>Insects are also able to <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00166516">switch jobs</a> in response to a disruption. Within a nest, individuals may have jobs they specialise in. This allows greater efficiency within the nest. But during a disruption, individuals are able to switch jobs to fill the gap. </p>
<p>This is similar to our volunteer emergency services, like the State Emergency Service (SES). People who volunteer with the SES usually work in other areas. But, when an emergency strikes, they are able to respond and help fix the problem. </p>
<p>Perhaps more broad skills training would allow people to assist during some disturbances to our infrastructure. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120447/original/image-20160428-30946-13y1vc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120447/original/image-20160428-30946-13y1vc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120447/original/image-20160428-30946-13y1vc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120447/original/image-20160428-30946-13y1vc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120447/original/image-20160428-30946-13y1vc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120447/original/image-20160428-30946-13y1vc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120447/original/image-20160428-30946-13y1vc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Insects’ social behaviour can lead to impressive feats, such as termites building and maintaining large nest mounds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Susanna Dunkerley</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How could this hold lessons for humans?</h2>
<p>By studying the collective behaviour of social insects, and the ways in which they are able to remain resilient in the face of disturbances, we can build upon these lessons to inspire the development of our infrastructure and protect it from large-scale failures. </p>
<p>Social insects have evolved a variety of solutions to different disruptions over millennia. Trying to experiment on human networks is often impossible and unethical, yet we can directly experiment on social insects. </p>
<p>This isn’t to say that social insect systems are proxies for human systems, but by comparing numerous social insect systems, by studying human case studies (usually from the results found after a natural disaster) and developing simulations, we can begin to understand the general features that contribute to resilience across different scales and types of disturbance.</p>
<p>This also goes both ways. By borrowing ideas, tools and concepts from resilience work in other disciplines, such as physics, economics and engineering, we can get a greater understanding of the mechanics behind social insect resilience. </p>
<p>Together, this can lead to a greater understanding of resilience which can be applied to the design of better human infrastructure.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56512/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eliza Middleton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>By working together, social insects are able to fix a small failure before it becomes a larger one.Eliza Middleton, Postdoctoral Associate in Entomology and Integrated Pest Management, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/515482015-12-11T09:26:40Z2015-12-11T09:26:40ZTerror attacks in Paris and California expose modern society’s lack of resilience<p>The terrorist attacks that occurred in Paris on November 13 shattered the complacency of the French lifestyle. A few weeks later, a savage attack erupted in San Bernardino, California, further exposing the vulnerability of Western societies. </p>
<p>Dealing with terrorism and, in particular, with the frightening emergence of the ruthless Islamic State organization, also known as ISIS, will preoccupy the attention of world leaders for some time. </p>
<p>But there is a larger lesson to be gained from this and other recent crises. Put very simply: our complex global society lacks resilience.</p>
<p>What do I mean by that? Everything from our vulnerability to power failures to our overreaction of vilifying people who merely “look like” the perpetrators of violent acts, an overreaction demonstrated by Donald Trump’s recent call to close our borders to Muslims.</p>
<p>The good news is that we can improve our resilience. First let’s examine our society’s vulnerabilities.</p>
<h2>Economic vulnerability</h2>
<p>Terrorism is just one of many global threats that we face. </p>
<p>Our economy is highly vulnerable to a range of unexpected crises such as the <a href="http://www.livescience.com/39110-japan-2011-earthquake-tsunami-facts.html">2011 tsunami that destroyed Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power station</a>, causing costly delays in the electronics, motor vehicles and other industries. </p>
<p>Since 2001, the US has endured a series of disruptions, including <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/23/us/hurricane-katrina-statistics-fast-facts/">hurricanes</a>, <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/biggest-blackout-in-us-history/">power blackouts</a>, <a href="http://ocean.si.edu/gulf-oil-spill">oil spills</a>, <a href="http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2014/08/01/friday-marks-7-years-since-i-35w-bridge-collapse/">bridge collapses</a>, <a href="http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/2011-02-10-allentown-explosion_N.htm">gas-line explosions</a> and <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/11/remembering-americas-second-deadliest-plane-crash/248313/">aircraft accidents</a>. </p>
<p>The giant reinsurance company, Munich Re, reports a <a href="http://www.munichre.com/us/property-casualty/publications-expertise/knowledge-publications/severe-weather/index.html">sharp increase in the number of natural disasters during the past 32 years</a> – a trend that is linked to climate change. </p>
<p>Are we adequately prepared for the next catastrophe, even though we cannot predict what it will be?</p>
<h2>Warning: turbulence ahead</h2>
<p>The root cause of our vulnerability is the structure of the global economy: highly interconnected, complex and filled with turbulence. </p>
<p>Major disasters can occur unexpectedly, and even minor incidents can cascade into significant human and financial losses. Emerging pressures such as climate change and urbanization will only intensify the potential for extreme events and severe disruptions. When a catastrophe occurs, we rush to aid the victims, but the memory quickly fades and we return to business as usual, dealing with more immediate financial or political pressures.</p>
<p>Could we do a better job at anticipating and responding to unforeseen events? </p>
<p>Although businesses, communities and government agencies <a href="http://www.coso.org/-erm.htm">have developed</a> elaborate “risk management” systems to detect vulnerabilities, this approach has an inherent weakness. It cannot protect against unidentified risks. </p>
<p>In an increasingly complex and volatile global economy, it is virtually impossible to predict and analyze all possible disruptions. Rather than resisting the inevitable waves of change, we need to embrace change and learn to ride the waves.</p>
<h2>Learning to embrace change</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105332/original/image-20151210-7453-1xnvm9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105332/original/image-20151210-7453-1xnvm9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105332/original/image-20151210-7453-1xnvm9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105332/original/image-20151210-7453-1xnvm9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105332/original/image-20151210-7453-1xnvm9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105332/original/image-20151210-7453-1xnvm9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105332/original/image-20151210-7453-1xnvm9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The little poppy that could.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Plant street via www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In my book <a href="http://www.islandpress.org/book/resilient-by-design">Resilient by Design</a>, I argue that to embrace change requires going beyond the traditional approach of minimizing unwanted disruptions and recovering normal operations as quickly as possible. We must treat each surprise event as a learning experience, and adapt accordingly.</p>
<p>Risk management makes sense in a stable environment with predictable events, but in today’s more complex risk landscape – the new normal – it is inadequate for dealing with fast-moving, unfamiliar threats that may cascade into disasters. </p>
<p>The most damaging disruptions are often a result of rare, “black swan” events that were never anticipated. Who would have guessed, for example, that a <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/04/22/iceland.airport.closures/">volcano in Iceland would ground virtually all air traffic</a> in Western Europe? </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/initiatives/resilience">US government</a> and many private companies have begun to study the resilience of our economic systems, urban communities and the infrastructures that support them.</p>
<p>A particular concern is adaptation to the emerging effects of climate change, including extreme weather and rising sea levels. Rather than responding to crises after the fact, we are beginning to design dynamic systems that are better prepared to anticipate crises and more capable of coping in the aftermath. For example, package delivery companies such as UPS use real-time monitoring systems to quickly reroute deliveries in the event of a transportation disruption.</p>
<p>Resilience – the capacity to survive, adapt and flourish in the face of disruptive change – is a basic characteristic of all living systems, from individual creatures to entire ecosystems. Most people are psychologically resilient in the face of setbacks, ranging from diseases to divorces or job layoffs. </p>
<p>Human communities are remarkably resilient, and many cities have been completely rebuilt after catastrophic events. In contrast, engineered systems such as machines, buildings and industrial supply chains are generally more “brittle” and prone to failure or collapse.</p>
<h2>Designing for resilience</h2>
<p>Brittleness is not inevitable. It is a fundamental design flaw. </p>
<p>Mechanistic systems based on logical rules cannot cope with events that the designers failed to anticipate. We have much to learn from the natural world, where resilience is seen everywhere from cells to organisms to entire ecosystems. </p>
<p>Today, innovative companies are learning to behave more like living systems, sensing, responding and adapting to change. They view resilience as a source of competitive advantage and are supplementing traditional risk management methods with adaptive processes and technologies. </p>
<p>For example, IBM <a href="http://www.fastcompany.com/1300050/rotterdam-smart-delta-city-future">has worked with the city of Rotterdam</a> to deploy advanced cyber-based methods for flood detection and control, enabling the city to cope with the increasing intensity of flooding events. And researchers at The Ohio State University <a href="http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/flourishing-in-the-face-of-supply-chain-disruption/">have developed</a> a supply chain resilience assessment tool that helps to spot a company’s areas of vulnerability and identify corresponding capabilities that need to be strengthened. </p>
<p>Resilience capabilities are quite diverse, ranging from physical design of operations to information technologies to training of employees. </p>
<p>One basic approach to resilience is reducing the concentration and complexity of a system: for example, by building smaller-scale, distributed facilities instead of a single centralized facility. Global giants like <a href="http://www.supplychainbrain.com/content/research-analysis/supply-chain-innovators/single-article-page/article/dow-chemical-co-adopts-a-new-model-for-supply-chain-resilience/">Dow Chemical are exploring a range of supply chain resilience strategies</a>, from increased flexibility of transportation modes to early warning systems that sense and respond quickly to surprise events. </p>
<p>And next-generation nuclear plants will have safety features that eliminate the chance of a meltdown. We hope. </p>
<h2>Leveraging the human factor</h2>
<p>The above research has shown that human intelligence and creativity are among the most powerful tools available to build resilience against unforeseen threats and enable both companies and communities to flourish.</p>
<p>Clearly the most challenging threat that we face today is the rise of violent extremism. Terrorist organizations, with their decentralized structure and covert operations, are inherently more resilient than the traditional armed forces deployed by nation-states. </p>
<p>Despite huge investments by the US and its allies in counterintelligence, we are still ineffective in “asymmetric” warfare. Overwhelming force may achieve temporary victories, but cunning and subterfuge eventually prevail. </p>
<p>To defeat terrorism, we may need to leverage the human factor – and its inherent resilience – by taking advantage of citizen involvement, social media and other nontraditional tools. </p>
<p>For example, the surveillance work of intelligence agencies can be complemented by conscious public efforts to promote inclusiveness, avoid alienation of minorities and reach out to potential dissidents. This type of adaptation seems more promising than trying to shut our borders to entire classes of immigrants. </p>
<p>In this age of turbulence, resilience has become a prerequisite for continued prosperity. Simply going back to business as usual – as we’ve too often done – is not the best strategy. Rather than bouncing back, we need to bounce forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Fiksel works for The Ohio State University as a faculty member and program director. He has received funding from Dow Chemical and other companies to support the research described in this article. </span></em></p>The root cause of our vulnerability is the structure of the global economy: highly interconnected, complex and filled with turbulence.Joseph Fiksel, Executive Director, Sustainable & Resilient Economy, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/508982015-12-07T03:24:09Z2015-12-07T03:24:09ZHow do we create liveable cities? First, we must work out the key ingredients<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103390/original/image-20151126-28306-5nwq60.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Good access to people, services and other essential ingredients of wellbeing is a defining feature of liveable communities.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/7740419238/in/photolist-cMZEY7-aq3od3-4MZrFs-4TpvNo-6TFjv4-acYbcf-6TFdUX-5echJs-f6SNA-oNevtZ-fKgdBp-agBMia-gNr2nt-8qZ3A-2CpWc1-6TUU25-a9n6M9-oQVrGa-oNdYFQ-6TNs4i-5CSFNP-mbRodV-p3FJa3-p5HJ4z-au52LL-6WfhfU-6TSsXH-8iKkLq-594amC-6Wwjo3-dMs5fS-dMs5y7-bBkXCf-8Mcyzx-7aaCAs-8HFBqT-8HFBit-8HFBn6-8HJJNh-bBm26N-8McDCv-8McGcD-ckcR6E-aevQue-4MVfqn-4MZrzb-4MZrAw-4MVfnT-4MZrC1-4MZry7">flickr/US Department of Agriculture</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Liveable communities and resilient cities are buzzwords of the moment. But exactly how do you define a “liveable” community or city? Our research focuses on this exact question. </p>
<p>In an extensive review of liveability definitions used in academic and grey literature in Australia and internationally, we found some consistent factors. <a href="http://www.communityindicators.net.au/files/docs/Liveability%20Indicators%20report.pdf">Critical factors</a> for liveable communities are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>residents feeling safe, socially connected and included;</p></li>
<li><p>environmental sustainability; and</p></li>
<li><p>access to affordable and diverse housing options linked via public transport, walking and cycling infrastructure to employment, education, local shops, public open space and parks, health and community services, leisure and culture.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These are the essential ingredients for a liveable community. They are needed to promote health and wellbeing in individuals, build communities and support a sustainable society. </p>
<p>The Victorian Department of Health and Human Services agrees with our definition. It has been adopted in the recently released <a href="http://www.health.vic.gov.au/prevention/download/vphwp-final.pdf">Victorian Public Health and Wellbeing Plan 2015-2019</a>. This plan provides the overarching framework to support and improve the health and wellbeing of all Victorians.</p>
<h2>Liveability requires broad wellbeing</h2>
<p>We live in an urbanising world. Cities are increasing in prominence as major social and economic hubs. For such cities, liveability rankings and awards can provide welcome global recognition and marketing tools.</p>
<p>Such rankings can operate to attract (or detract) people to a community. For example, many people will know Melbourne has been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-18/melbourne-named-worlds-most-liveable-city-again/6705274">repeatedly voted</a> the “world’s most liveable city”. A key question is: liveable for whom?</p>
<p>While helpful at the broadest level, these rankings focus on the inner city, remuneration packages and economic productivity. The rankings mask intra-city inequities. </p>
<p>To overcome this, our definition of liveability considers the underlying conditions that support health. Our definition focuses on equity and recognition that where you live can predict health outcomes and life expectancy. </p>
<p>Location shapes life expectancy. The interactive <a href="http://www.californiamuseum.org/health-happens-here-california-museum">Health Happens Here</a> exhibition at the California Museum offers a great explanation of how many key factors beyond diet and exercise influence health.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6kk7ElhSJNg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Health Happens Here exhibit offers an interactive journey through all the ways and places that affect health.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We are creating liveability indicators that are linked to urban, transport and infrastructure planning policy. This is guided by our understanding that health is influenced by individual personal factors, social and community supports and broader socioeconomic, cultural and environmental conditions. These <a href="http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/hhsifswps/2007_5f014.htm">conditions include</a> housing, education, workplaces and access to services.</p>
<p>Developing these liveability indicators is a key component of our research at the NHMRC <a href="http://mccaughey.unimelb.edu.au/programs/cre">Centre of Research Excellence in Healthy Liveable Communities</a> led by the McCaughey VicHealth Community Wellbeing Unit at the University of Melbourne. The policy-focused research is governed by advisory groups in Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland and links evidence to state-based policies and practice. </p>
<p>In Victoria, liveability indicators developed through our research are made freely available to all members of the community through <a href="http://www.communityindicators.net.au">Community Indicators Victoria</a>. This supports the democratisation of data, engagement and measuring progress in communities.</p>
<h2>Designing cities for good health</h2>
<p>We need to build cities based on a clear and consistent definition of liveability. The goal is that it can be objectively measured and tracked over time using indicators that provide an understanding of each city’s strengths and challenges. </p>
<p>Our definition is not values-free: it is guided by the view that cities must be designed to promote health. </p>
<p>A city built well is a healthy city that provides all residents (not just the fortunate few) with opportunities to live in areas with all the essential ingredients of a liveable community. It is a place that promotes healthy and happy people and community wellbeing – a place where people want to live.</p>
<p>A more liveable city is a great place to live. It is more resilient as well, with competitive social, economic and environmental advantages. Using our definition, a liveable city is also a healthy city, promoting health, wellbeing and equity.</p>
<p>This would be an excellent outcome for all Australians and all government ministries. Let’s hope our new federal <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-policy-could-the-federal-government-finally-get-cities-47858">minister for cities</a> and the built environment is listening.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50898/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Davern receives funding from the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Badland receives funding from VicHealth, the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Centre of Excellence in Healthy Liveable Communities (#1061404), and The Australian Prevention Partnership Centre (#9100001) with funding provided by NHMRC, ACT Health, NSW Health, the Australian National Preventive Health Agency, the Hospitals Contribution Fund of Australia and the HCF Research Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Billie Giles-Corti and Carolyn Whitzman do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Communities that rate highly for liveability share certain essential features. We can identify and build these key ingredients into our cities to create thriving places where people want to live.Melanie Davern, Senior Research Fellow, Healthy Liveable Cities Group, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityBillie Giles-Corti, Professor of Health Promotion & Director McCaughey VicHealth Community Wellbeing Unit, The University of MelbourneCarolyn Whitzman, Professor of Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneHannah Badland, Senior Research Fellow, McCaughey VicHealth Community Wellbeing Unit, Centre of Health Equity, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/452082015-07-27T15:01:26Z2015-07-27T15:01:26ZFlood severity along US coastline has worsened<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89701/original/image-20150724-8468-14fxxz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flooding during Hurricane Sandy devastated New York City's transportation and power infrastructure</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jasonahowie/8142884001/in/photolist-dpypHK-dpyyww-dpyy3Q-dpBD37-dpmC3S-dpNqBQ-dpDtFc-dpDujj-doSi2J-dpDBtS-dpDEau-dpDuQy-dpDwys-dpDsWi-dpDxo3-dp9X78-dp51w7-dpa7UL-dp4RKT-dpBt8D-dq4Vwn-dpBQWq-dpBxeK-dpBsLR-druUmP-druUvV-dp9X4B-dq4VyH-dp4RGt-drv5Z9-dAAPB4-dp4RNv-dAAFFr-dp4REn-dpyoEp-dpypwn-dpgSt8-dpDqXH-dpywUJ-dpypsH-dpDrpR-dMHKYb-dpDzS1-dpyvW9-dMHKSj-dpynaV-dpDq4H-jFAM7H-dpDv6J-dMHKQQ/">Jason Howie/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Flooding is a well-known natural hazard along the US coastline. <a href="http://stateofthecoast.noaa.gov/population/">Nearly 40%</a> of the US population resides in its coastal counties. </p>
<p>A clear understanding of the various flood types and changes in the frequency of their occurrence is critical toward reliable estimates of vulnerability and potential impacts in the near-term as well as into the future. Given the heavy reliance on coastal zones for natural resources and economic activity, flood preparedness and safety are key elements of long-term resilience. </p>
<p>In a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2736">study</a> published in the journal Nature Climate Change, we assembled long historical records of rainfall, tide gauge readings and hurricane tracks to assess the simultaneous occurrence of heavy precipitation on land and storm surges. The combination of these two – heavy rain and <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/">storm surges</a> driven mainly by the wind from storms – can result in “compound” floods. </p>
<p>We found that along large coastline stretches around the US, a systematic linkage exists between the two important drivers for coastal flooding, making it more likely that the two occur in tandem. Our analysis showed that over the past century, the number of compound flood events for many US coastal cities has increased. </p>
<p>Gaining more insight into the frequency and likelihood of compound floods can help planners better assess risk from flooding to critical infrastructure.</p>
<h2>Vulnerable infrastructure</h2>
<p>The interdependencies between storm surge and precipitation have long been neglected within flood risk analyses, where usually one of the two flood drivers was investigated in isolation. As a result, planners may have underestimated the actual flood risk.</p>
<p>Indeed, the US Government Accountability Office, in a July 22 2015 report titled “<a href="http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-660">Efforts to Assess the Impact of Extreme Weather Events</a>,” reviewed US Army Corps of Engineers efforts to integrate changing risk from weather extremes into planning and operations of water resource infrastructure projects. The report concludes: “As the frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events are increasing, without performing systematic, national risk assessments on other types of infrastructure, such as hurricane barriers and floodwalls, the Corps will continue to take a piecemeal approach to assessing risk on such infrastructure.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89708/original/image-20150725-8461-3wwzz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89708/original/image-20150725-8461-3wwzz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89708/original/image-20150725-8461-3wwzz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89708/original/image-20150725-8461-3wwzz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89708/original/image-20150725-8461-3wwzz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89708/original/image-20150725-8461-3wwzz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89708/original/image-20150725-8461-3wwzz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89708/original/image-20150725-8461-3wwzz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Compound flooding explained: the coincident occurrence of precipitation and storm surge (large enough to cause direct flooding or to slow down or fully block freshwater drainage) can lead to compound flooding in coastal regions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Theodore Scontras/University of Maine</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The relationship between storm surge and heavy rainfall is stronger along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts – where tropical cyclones and hurricanes often produce large storm surges and also bring significant amounts of precipitation – compared with the Pacific coast. </p>
<p>In the face of storm surge flooding, heavy precipitation on the land serves to accentuate its severity and impacts. In other instances, storm surge simply elevates sea water levels enough so that gravity-fed freshwater drainage is either blocked, slowed down or backed up. In this case, the inland flood potential rises dramatically, and coastal communities face the prospect of malfunctioning stormwater and wastewater infrastructure.</p>
<p>Commingling of the storm surge effects with runoff due to heavy precipitation has a multiplier effect on coastal infrastructure. The impacts can range from washed-out bridges to sanitation and public health concerns due to overflowing wastewater systems. And any increase in sea level would worsen the impacts from storm surges. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, much of the infrastructure that deals with flooding could be greatly improved. The 2013 <a href="http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org">Infrastructure Report Card</a> issued by the American Society of Civil Engineers assigned the following grades: Levees (D-), Ports (C), Wastewater (D), Roads (D). </p>
<h2>Better preparation</h2>
<p>With this daunting perspective in mind, we sought to quantify the frequency of occurrence of compound flood events, as gleaned from the historical record. We were seeking to learn the spatial patterns of the risk of compound flooding, as well as its temporal variability over the past century. </p>
<p>For many of the large cities, including Boston, New York City, Tampa, Houston, San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco, we found a shift toward storm surge weather patterns that also favor high precipitation. This makes it more likely now, compared with earlier in the 20th century, that concurrent extremes would occur. </p>
<p>For New York City, as an example, we identified the weather situations that typically caused compound events in the past and showed that those have occurred more often over the last few decades. As a result, certain scenarios of combined storm surge and rainfall became twice more likely than they used to be in the mid-20th century. We did not seek to attribute these trends to specific climatic phenomena, but that would be an important next step.</p>
<p>Future research should also focus on the implications of those changes for flood risk noted in our study, including localized estimates of flood risk and the efficiency of countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of these events. At the same time, it will be important to identify linkages between the observed changes in dependency between storm surge and heavy rainfall and large-scale climate phenomena. </p>
<p>This, in combination with simulations performed with high-resolution climate and hydraulic/hydrological models, will allow us to look into the future and define scenarios for changes in the compound flood risk. A better understanding of these heightened risks can then be integrated into coastal adaptation planning and resilience efforts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Wahl received funding under the postdoc program of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaleen Jain has received funding from National Science Foundation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and U.S. Geological Survey. He is a member of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.</span></em></p>Study finds higher risk of flooding from a combination of storm surge and heavy precipitation, particularly along the East Coast of the US.Thomas Wahl, Postdoctoral Researcher in Marine Science, University of South FloridaShaleen Jain, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of MaineLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/417132015-06-17T10:12:56Z2015-06-17T10:12:56ZWe need to change how and where we build to be ready for a future of more extreme weather<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85250/original/image-20150616-5829-if0b5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are more resilient ways to build in vulnerable areas.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Resilient Collective Housing', New Jersey Institute of Technology College of Architecture and Design studio project by Taryn Wefer and Naomi Patel. Instructors: Keith Krumwiede and Martina Decker</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The human and economic losses resulting from extreme weather events during the last several years vividly demonstrate the US’ historically shortsighted approach to development. The ill-advised, fast-paced construction of human settlements in <a href="http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com//2015/05/26/in-texas-the-race-to-develop-in-harms-way-outpaces-flood-risk-studies-and-warming-impacts/">low-lying, coastal and riverine environments</a> prone to flooding has long been the American way. From <a href="http://www.loc.gov/rr/news/topics/galveston.html">Galveston</a> to <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/center-for-science-and-democracy/case-studies/hoboken-case-study.html#.VYA0FuuJnww">Hoboken</a>, we have laid out our grids and thrown up our houses with little regard for the consequences.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85123/original/image-20150615-5842-1nxzkk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Galveston, Texas in 1871, ‘but a waif of the ocean,…liable, at any moment, and certain, at no distant day, of being engulfed and submerged by the self-same power that gave it form.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Old_map-Galveston-1871.jpg">Camille N. Drie</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And the consequences can be devastating. Hurricane Sandy, which hit the East Coast in 2012 just one year after Hurricane Irene, another “100-year” storm, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/12/the-water-next-time/382242/">“filled up Hoboken like a bathtub.”</a> The storm’s impact all across the eastern seaboard was staggering: <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf">147</a> people were killed, <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/regions/northeast">650,000</a> homes were damaged or destroyed, and <a href="http://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/docs/2012_SitRep20_Sandy_11072012_1000AM.pdf">8.5 million</a> residences lost power, some for weeks. In the end, the costs of the storm were pegged at over <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events">US$60 billion</a>, making Sandy the second costliest natural disaster in US history after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.</p>
<p>Storms like Sandy are a harbinger of <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tom-zeller-jr/hurricane-sandy-link-to-climate-change_b_2059179.html">extreme weather events</a> to come as a result of climate change. Without concerted action, the costs, in lives and property, of future weather events will only multiply. It’s time we recognize not only that the climate is changing but that the development patterns that have hardly served us well in the past certainly won’t serve us well in the future. Changing course will require a reassessment of risks as they relate not only to <em>how</em> but also to <em>where</em> we build. In our larger, more densely populated regions and cities, massive storm protection projects are both necessary and economically viable, but in many places we would be much better served to move out of harm’s way.</p>
<h2>Climate change means more extreme weather events</h2>
<p>It’s beyond <a href="http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/">dispute</a> that the planet is warming. The year 2014 was the warmest on record, and projections suggest that by 2100, average global temperatures could increase by between <a href="http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Science-Report-Brief-final.pdf">2 and 11 Fahrenheit</a>. And with rising temperatures come rising sea levels. Globally, sea level <a href="http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html">rose 7 inches</a> during the 20th century, and projections for the 21st century are alarming, with estimates ranging from between <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/sea-level-rise">1 and 4 feet</a> globally.</p>
<p>The rise in global temperature and sea level has been accompanied by an increase in <a href="http://stateofthecoast.noaa.gov/insurance/welcome.html">flood events</a> and <a href="http://www.globalchange.gov/sites/globalchange/files/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-chap2-climate.pdf">hurricane strength and activity</a> in the Atlantic. Since 1958, intense rainfall events have <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing#intro-section-2">increased 71%</a> in the Northeast. This May, rainstorms in Texas dumped <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/604259036532326401">35 trillion gallons of water</a>, enough to cover the entire state to a depth of eight inches. Here again, <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/overview/climate-trends#intro-section">projections</a> don’t bode well for the future.</p>
<p>Along the Atlantic coast, stronger, wetter and <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing#intro-section-2">more frequent storms</a> will result in ever-increasing levels of damage – especially when combined with <a href="http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html">bigger storm surges</a> due to rising sea levels, less protection due to the loss of storm-buffering wetlands and more exposure due to <a href="http://scenarios.globalchange.gov/scenarios/sea-level">increasing development</a> in low-lying areas.</p>
<p>Inland, an increase in <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing#narrative-page-16569">extreme precipitation events</a> combined with more floodplain development and greater stormwater runoff over increasingly impervious ground surfaces will lead to more <a href="https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42850.pdf">frequent</a> and intense flooding.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85267/original/image-20150616-5816-1w47md9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Idea: let’s rethink building cities on floodplains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/48722974@N07/4514870674">Department of Environment and Climate Change, NSW</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dumb development decisions</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.cbo.gov/publication/50230">US Congressional Budget Office</a> predicts that the costs of hurricane damage in 2075 will double due to climate change alone and could increase fivefold with additional coastal development. And without significant changes in our land use policies, we will see additional development. Over the past 40 years, there’s been a <a href="http://stateofthecoast.noaa.gov/pop100yr/welcome.html">60% increase</a> nationally in the number of people living in coastal floodplains. And those floodplains are growing; with each new upstream development, another downstream site is compromised. Over the last 20 years, increased runoff from <a href="http://offcite.org/liquidation-in-the-face-of-water-extremes-houston-cannot-go-on-with-business-as-usual/">new development in Houston</a>, also known as the Bayou City, has added 55 square miles to the 100-year floodplain. </p>
<p>It should be clear by now that the rewards reaped from our current development patterns don’t outweigh the risks we face. In the past, we built our cities and settlements, not always wisely or well, with the assumption that the future would be similar to the past.</p>
<p>The evidence is now overwhelming that the future will be nothing like the past. But we continue, in many places, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/north-carolina-state-hiding-climate-science-2014-12#ixzz3bBDiTN00">to act as if it will</a>. Believing, perhaps, that if you ignore the science, the projections won’t come to pass, officials in <a href="http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/north-carolina-pennsylvania-officials-ban-climate-change-global-warming">North Carolina, Pennsylvania</a> and <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article12983720.html%23storylink=cpy">Florida</a> required that the term “climate change” be removed from official communications and state websites. Claiming “<a href="http://www.texasgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014-Platform-Final.pdf#page=8">‘climate change’ is a political agenda</a> which attempts to control every aspect of our lives,” Republican leaders in Texas “reject the use of this natural process to promote <a href="http://www.texasgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014-Platform-Final.pdf#page=33">more government regulation of the private economy.</a>”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85269/original/image-20150616-5829-agqz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What happens after the floodwaters recede?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/chuckp/52326707">Chuck Patch</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Subsidizing risk</h2>
<p>The problem with this logic, however, is that government action often tends to stimulate rather than impede private economic actions that both drive and increase our vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. In the United States, $18.5 billion in <a href="http://ecowatch.com/2014/07/16/subsidies-gas-oil-climate-change/">federal fossil fuel subsidies</a> not only hamper efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but contribute directly to the expansion of the type of low-density sprawling development that increases the risks we face from extreme weather events, through increased runoff and the destruction of wetlands and open space.</p>
<p>The government further subsidizes risky development through the National Flood Insurance Program (<a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">NFIP</a>), which is currently <a href="http://www.gao.gov/highrisk/national_flood_insurance/why_did_study%23t=0">$23 billion in debt</a> due to claims from Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy. By keeping the cost of insurance below real actuarial rates – <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/11-04-floodinsurance.pdf">20%</a> of its <a href="http://bsa.nfipstat.fema.gov/reports/1011.htm">5 million</a> policies are explicitly subsidized – and by continuing to offer insurance on repetitive loss properties – one single-family home in New Jersey has filed <a href="http://www.njspotlight.com/stories/14/08/27/repetitive-flooding-means-recurring-problems-for-inland-new-jersey/">16 claims for a total of $1.3 million</a> — the NFIP shields property owners from the real risks to which they are exposed. In redistributing the costs of individual choices onto all taxpayers, the NFIP actively encourages development in vulnerable, high-risk areas. Recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/texas-floods-highlight-need-to-reform-key-insurance-program-42235">attempts to reform</a> the NFIP were thwarted by a coalition of <a href="http://www.njspotlight.com/stories/14/08/27/repetitive-flooding-means-recurring-problems-for-inland-new-jersey">coastal residents and the National Association of Homebuilders</a>.</p>
<p>We continue, in many cases, to let individual short-term interests trump collective long-term security, ignoring what climate science has proven with <a href="http://news.discovery.com/earth/global-warming/why-only-95-percent-certain-were-to-blame-130927.htm">95% certainty</a> – odds that any gambler would pray for.</p>
<h2>Embracing resilient design</h2>
<p>There are some positive signs of changing attitudes and approaches. With six innovative proposals funded in New York and New Jersey, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development’s <a href="http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/">Rebuild by Design</a> competition signals a willingness, at all levels of government, to invest in progressive, evidence-based resilient design efforts. Recognizing the densely populated region’s massive exposure to the threats posed by extreme weather, HUD is investing over <a href="http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/press/press_releases_media_advisories/2014/HUDNo_14-063">$900 million</a> in infrastructure-scale projects. They include the creation of a multipurpose berm and storm-buffering nature preserve in the Meadowlands of New Jersey and a multi-pronged protection plan including new bulkheads, stormwater pumps and green infrastructure in Hoboken.</p>
<p>Such projects are a wise investment. The <a href="http://www.nad.usace.army.mil/Portals/40/docs/NACCS/NACCS_main_report.pdf">Army Corps of Engineers</a> estimates that for every dollar spent on preparing for the anticipated effects of climate change – adapting, in other words – four to five are saved in post-disaster recovery and reconstruction costs. Unfortunately <a href="http://offcite.org/liquidation-in-the-face-of-water-extremes-houston-cannot-go-on-with-business-as-usual/">business goes on as usual</a> in many places, where bearing the <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-news-wire/PRNews_20150603DA24960/economic-impact-of-texas-floods-could-be-up-to-550-million-bbva-compass-economists-say.html">expense of disaster recovery</a> trumps investing in preparedness.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85122/original/image-20150615-5846-16hpptx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Consolidating development is one way to build smarter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">'Resilient Collective Housing', New Jersey Institute of Technology College of Architecture and Design studio project by Taryn Wefer and Naomi Patel. Instructors: Keith Krumwiede and Martina Decker</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Smarter choices in where and how we build</h2>
<p>Rather than continuing to encourage shortsighted development practices, we should prioritize the development of denser, compact communities. Such communities offer <a href="http://www2.epa.gov/sites/production/files/documents/smart_growth_and_economic_success.pdf">economic</a>, <a href="http://www2.epa.gov/smart-growth/about-smart-growth#environmental">environmental</a> and social benefits that make them inherently more resilient than sprawling low-density developments. With their smaller footprint, such communities have <a href="http://www.smartgrowthamerica.org/issues/economic-prosperity/municipal-budgets/">lower infrastructure costs per capita</a> and provide for the preservation, or restoration, of natural habitats and storm-buffering wetlands. They also <a href="http://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth/pdf/location_efficiency_BTU.pdf">reduce energy consumption</a> and thus greenhouse gas emissions at both the household and neighborhood level. When properly designed, such developments balance the individual needs of each household with the collective needs of the larger neighborhood, encouraging a sense of mutual respect and responsibility that is critical to the resilience of the community.</p>
<p>We have the means to encourage adaption of this type. The voluntary buyout of flood-prone properties is particularly effective, from both a cost and resiliency perspective. Instead of continuing to subsidize flood insurance for properties in areas at risk of flooding — an estimated <a href="https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42850.pdf">one-third of all claims paid</a> through the NFIP are for repetitive loss properties — public funds should be used to acquire and restore the land to its natural state. A study done following a buyout of properties in Kentucky showed a return of <a href="http://www.martin.uky.edu/centers_research/Capstones_2011/White.pdf">$2.45</a> for every dollar invested in buyouts.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/85124/original/image-20150615-5810-zqrq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It no longer makes sense to rebuild in the same places that keep getting hit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jaxstrong/8270843634">JaxStrong</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition to withdrawing from flood-prone areas, the creation of resilient, compact communities requires identifying and guiding development toward more opportune locations. In addition to having no adverse impact on existing floodplains, such locations should accommodate greater density while providing access to jobs, education and recreation through a variety of transportation choices. Unfortunately, current zoning often discourages compact development.</p>
<p>In concert with enacting zoning changes to promote more resilient development, communities can utilize a technique called <a href="http://www.njfuture.org/smart-growth-101/smart-growth-awards/2003-award/chesterfield/">transfer of development rights</a> (TDR). Most simply, TDR provides for the transferring of development rights from one location to another. Because zoning changes lower the development potential for some property owners while raising it for others, TDR essentially severs the right to develop land from the land itself. In this way, property owners seeking to build in areas where more development is desired would buy development rights from property owners in the area where less development is wanted.</p>
<h2>It’s time to wise up</h2>
<p>Each year brings more evidence of the human and economic impacts of climate change. It’s time that we stop throwing good money after bad. Rather than spending $25 million on PR campaigns to convince ourselves we’re <a href="http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local/down-the-shore-justin-auciello/58112-everyone-has-an-opinion-about-njs-qstronger-than-the-stormq-ad-campaign-">“stronger than the storm,”</a> we should start making choices that prove we’re smarter. For while we can’t say when the next hurricane with the force of Sandy (or even greater force) will batter the Atlantic Coast or when extreme flooding will hit Texas, we do know that there will be a next time. And we’re still fundamentally unprepared for it. We can’t continue to bet against climate change; we’ll lose in the end.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41713/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Krumwiede does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The climate is changing. Development patterns that have hardly served us well in the past certainly won’t serve us well in the future. Now is the time to adapt.Keith Krumwiede, Associate Professor of Architecture, New Jersey Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.