tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/road-transport-36317/articlesRoad transport – The Conversation2024-01-17T19:07:35Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199602024-01-17T19:07:35Z2024-01-17T19:07:35ZWhy electric trucks are our best bet to cut road transport emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566761/original/file-20231220-17-390gqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C3000%2C1985&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bruce-highway-townsville-mackay-queensland-australia-2083006054">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Transport is likely the <a href="https://theconversation.com/too-big-too-heavy-and-too-slow-to-change-road-transport-is-way-off-track-for-net-zero-208655">hardest economic sector</a> to decarbonise. And road vehicles produce the most greenhouse gas emissions of the Australian transport sector – <a href="https://greenhouseaccounts.climatechange.gov.au">85% of its total</a>. Freight trucks account for <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/survey-motor-vehicle-use-australia/latest-release">only 8%</a> of travel on our roads but <a href="https://greenhouseaccounts.climatechange.gov.au">27% of transport emissions</a>.</p>
<p>We analysed the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of Australian passenger cars and SUVs in a 2022 <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-friendly-is-an-electric-car-it-all-comes-down-to-where-you-live-179003">study</a>. We have now <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/2/762">looked at Australian trucks</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/6/3444">2022 study</a> showed Australian electric cars already provided large cuts in emissions in 2019. The reduction was 30-40% compared to the overall on-road passenger vehicle fleet’s (life-cycle) emissions per kilometre in 2018. When renewables take over the electricity grid from which battery electric vehicles are charged, the cuts will be even bigger – around 75-80%.</p>
<p>Is it the same for Australian trucks? Our <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/2/762">new study</a> shows battery electric trucks are the best road transport option for getting closer to net-zero emissions. As the shift to renewables continues and batteries become more durable, these trucks are expected to deliver the largest and most certain emission cuts of 75-85% over their entire life cycle. </p>
<p>Hydrogen-powered (fuel cell) trucks also provide large emission cuts, but not as much as battery electric trucks. Their future performance is the most uncertain at this stage.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blue Pepsi electric truck drives on the highway" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566767/original/file-20231220-21-irhy2g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566767/original/file-20231220-21-irhy2g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566767/original/file-20231220-21-irhy2g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566767/original/file-20231220-21-irhy2g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566767/original/file-20231220-21-irhy2g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566767/original/file-20231220-21-irhy2g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566767/original/file-20231220-21-irhy2g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We can expect to see increasing numbers of electric trucks on our roads.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tesla_Semi_Pepsi_2023-10-31-13-39-37_DSCF2583_dllu.jpg">Dllu/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-big-too-heavy-and-too-slow-to-change-road-transport-is-way-off-track-for-net-zero-208655">Too big, too heavy and too slow to change: road transport is way off track for net zero</a>
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<h2>What did the study look at?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/2/762/pdf">We looked at</a> the fleet-averaged life-cycle emissions of three Australian truck sizes and three technologies – diesel, hydrogen and electric – for the pre-COVID year 2019 and a future decarbonised scenario. This scenario is based on 90% renewables in the electricity grid and 90% <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-hydrogen-could-be-a-game-changer-by-displacing-fossil-fuels-we-just-need-the-price-to-come-down-205636">green hydrogen</a> (produced using renewable energy). </p>
<p>To fairly assess emissions performance, we must look at the whole life cycle of both the vehicle and its energy or fuel process. Life-cycle assessment considers all aspects of a vehicle’s life – manufacturing, on-road driving, maintenance and disposal – and energy or fuel production and distribution. In future work we would like to include the life-cycle emission impacts of infrastructure such as roads.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Mitsubishi Fuso eCanter electric light duty truck driving down a city street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566772/original/file-20231220-25-uaocdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566772/original/file-20231220-25-uaocdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566772/original/file-20231220-25-uaocdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566772/original/file-20231220-25-uaocdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566772/original/file-20231220-25-uaocdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566772/original/file-20231220-25-uaocdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566772/original/file-20231220-25-uaocdf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Years of service by battery electric trucks give us more data, increasing certainty about their life-cycle emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mitsubishi_Fuso_eCanter_electric_light_duty_truck_2.jpg">Syced/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
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<p>We also added something that is less commonly done in life-cycle assessments: a probabilistic analysis. Instead of estimating single emission values, we quantified a plausible range of emissions. These distributions provide helpful extra information.</p>
<p>For instance, if a distribution is wide (spanning a wide range of emission values), there is a lot of uncertainty and variability in the emissions performance. This would make the technology less robust from a climate change perspective. </p>
<p>A narrow distribution means there is less variability. We can be more certain the technology will perform as expected, with less risk of over-promising and under-performing.</p>
<p>Assessments must also reflect Australian conditions. For instance, we analysed truck odometer data and found Australian long-haul trucks drive much farther over their lifetime than European trucks. </p>
<p>Vehicle mileage directly affects lifecycle emissions but it also affects the number of times a battery or hydrogen fuel cell system may need to be replaced. Each replacement can significantly increase life-cycle emissions.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566811/original/file-20231220-25-1w8mte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Stacked bar chart showing global sales of the various forms of road transport in 2012 and 2022" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566811/original/file-20231220-25-1w8mte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566811/original/file-20231220-25-1w8mte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566811/original/file-20231220-25-1w8mte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566811/original/file-20231220-25-1w8mte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566811/original/file-20231220-25-1w8mte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566811/original/file-20231220-25-1w8mte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566811/original/file-20231220-25-1w8mte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">While the uptake of electric trucks has trailed other forms of road transport, their high mileage means any emission cuts add up.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electric-vehicles-sales-share-by-vehicle-type-and-regional-distribution-2010-versus-2022">International Energy Agency/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-electric-vehicles-wont-be-enough-to-rein-in-transport-emissions-any-time-soon-195722">Why electric vehicles won't be enough to rein in transport emissions any time soon</a>
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<h2>What did the study find?</h2>
<p>In 2019, life-cycle emissions for electric trucks (both battery electric and hydrogen fuel cells) were higher than for diesel trucks. There were a few reasons for this. </p>
<p>First, the electricity grid and hydrogen production depended heavily on fossil fuel power sources at the time. High-carbon energy sources increased emissions from electric vehicles. But this is changing fast. </p>
<p>Another important issue is uncertainty about the durability of battery and (hydrogen) fuel cell systems in heavy use, such as for long-haul articulated trucks. The largest Australian trucks travel about 2 million kilometres on average in their lifetime. Those sorts of distances test the durability of these systems. </p>
<p>We currently expect battery systems to last between 400,000km and 600,000km. The average lifetime mileage of long-haul freight trucks in particular means batteries will need to be replaced. </p>
<p>Other options on the table could at least partly reduce this problem. We could use ageing trucks differently, such as for shorter trips. Trucks could also use shared and externally charged batteries (<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-trucking-industry-has-begun-to-turn-electric-cars-will-take-longer-160005">battery swapping</a>). </p>
<p>Battery and fuel cell systems are expected to become a lot more durable in coming decades. Alongside a strong decarbonisation of Australia’s electricity generation and hydrogen production, this completely changes the picture. This can be seen when we look at the estimated plausible range in life-cycle emissions for different truck sizes and powertrain technologies in the future decarbonised scenario.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-trucking-industry-has-begun-to-turn-electric-cars-will-take-longer-160005">The trucking industry has begun to turn electric; cars will take longer</a>
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<h2>What does this mean for policy?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/2/762/pdf">Our modelling</a> shows battery electric trucks will provide deep emission cuts of 75-85%, on average, across the fleet in the future decarbonised scenario. Hydrogen (fuel cell) trucks will provide large cuts of 50-70%, on average. </p>
<p>Hydrogen trucks are expected to emit about twice the amount of life-cycle emissions per kilometre compared to battery electric trucks. The latter’s extra reduction in emissions will be vital for getting road transport closer to the net-zero target in 2050.</p>
<p>The life-cycle emissions of the hydrogen trucks also have the largest uncertainty of all the powertrains we assessed. This reflects a general lack of data and information for this technology. </p>
<p>This uncertainty is important for policymakers to consider. Hydrogen (fuel cell) trucks carry a higher risk of not achieving anticipated emission cuts. </p>
<p>Using the available evidence, our study suggests policies to cut Australian trucking emissions should focus on promoting battery electric trucks wherever possible. </p>
<p>Of course, other policy measures will be needed to achieve net zero. The options include shifting freight <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-freight-used-to-go-by-train-not-truck-heres-how-we-can-bring-back-rail-and-cut-emissions-219332">from road to lower-emission electric rail</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-shift-to-coastal-shipping-and-rail-could-cut-nzs-freight-transport-emissions-why-arent-we-doing-it-204023">ships</a>. We could also reduce overall freight travel by, for instance, optimising logistics.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-freight-used-to-go-by-train-not-truck-heres-how-we-can-bring-back-rail-and-cut-emissions-219332">Australia's freight used to go by train, not truck. Here's how we can bring back rail – and cut emissions</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Smit is the Founder of and Director at Transport Energy/Emission Research (TER) and an Adjunct Professor at University of Technology Sydney.</span></em></p>Battery electric trucks offer larger and more certain emission cuts than trucks powered by hydrogen in the quest to reduce Australia’s stubbornly high transport emissions.Robin Smit, Adjunct Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060272023-07-17T15:06:18Z2023-07-17T15:06:18ZThey Eat Our Sweat - new book exposes daily struggles of transport workers in Lagos<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535262/original/file-20230703-266873-aa70gw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A minibus driver and an agbero exchange blows at Ojota, Lagos. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Daniel E. Agbiboa’s book <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/they-eat-our-sweat-9780198861546?cc=us&lang=en&">They Eat Our Sweat: Transport Labor, Corruption, and Everyday Survival in Urban Nigeria</a> explores the world of drivers of minibuses (danfo) and motorcycles (okada) in Lagos, the economic capital of Nigeria. <a href="https://wcfia.harvard.edu/people/daniel-e-agbiboa">Agbiboa</a> is assistant professor of African and African American studies at Harvard University. His research interests include the informal economy, urban change, mobility and youth politics. </p>
<p>The book describes the everyday interactions between the drivers, their conductors, union members regulating the garages through which they pass daily, and police officers. The drivers work 10 to 12 hours a day, six days a week, but go home without much revenue after paying daily “fees” or “dues” to bus owners, police officers and union members. </p>
<p>To gather materials for the book, Agbiboa worked as a conductor in a minibus for several months. He witnessed everyday forms of exploitation of these drivers by the police and touts. One driver summed it up: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I work tirelessly each day, while the ‘baboons’ (touts and police) stand in the roundabout and just chop (eat) my sweat.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Agbiboa reveals the micro dynamics of corruption and the drivers’ obligation to pay street-level bureaucrats from the National Union of Road Transport Workers and police. </p>
<p>His book is very welcome as he explores in detail the everyday survival of minibus and okada transport workers. Like many informal workers, transport operators have no fixed income, no days off and no social protection. And, as elsewhere on the continent, drivers have to speed to make ends meet. A central argument of the book is that corruption levels are high on the road.</p>
<p>My view, as a scholar of <a href="https://www.sciencespo.fr/histoire/en/researcher/Laurent%20Fourchard/76183.html">Nigerian history and political sociology</a>, is that the book’s solid empirical base makes it an important study of transport working conditions in the country. Agbiboa usefully questions the distinction – recently established by critical scholars – between “capitalist owners” (of minibuses) and “proletarian workers” (who have only their labour to sell) in Africa’s cities. In Lagos, he suggests, the workers have the potential to earn more money than the owners. </p>
<p>The author also places Lagos in a larger conversation about informal transport in Africa’s cities, moving beyond any exceptional character of Lagos. He rightly insists there is order beyond the apparent chaos in African cities.</p>
<p>The book also documents the efforts of some transport associations to challenge state laws which deprive workers of their revenues. In an attempt to promote Lagos as a “world class city”, the <a href="https://pmnewsnigeria.com/2012/09/04/lagos-traffic-law-okada-riders-vow-resistance/">2012 Lagos State Law</a> banned motorbike riders from operating on the most important roads of the state and wealthy neighbourhoods. <a href="https://www.channelstv.com/2012/12/13/okada-riders-loss-battle-against-lagos-traffic-law/">Okada attempted to resist but eventually lost</a>. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-okada-motorcycles-have-a-bad-image-but-banning-them-solves-nothing-154765">saga</a> revealed the imbalance of power and the official narrative that associated motorbike drivers with crime, danger and disorder.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-okada-motorcycles-have-a-bad-image-but-banning-them-solves-nothing-154765">Nigeria's okada motorcycles have a bad image, but banning them solves nothing</a>
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<p>. </p>
<h2>Extortion and complicity</h2>
<p>Agbiboa suggests the daily encounters between <em>agbero</em> (the agents who collect fees from drivers for the transport union), drivers and police agents are marked by extortion and complicity. </p>
<p>The book asserts complicity between <em>agbero</em> and police agents and never between <em>agbero</em> and drivers. My own observations in several motor parks in Lagos suggest, however, that there isn’t always complicity between <em>agbero</em> and police, and that complicity between <em>agbero</em> and drivers is very common. Most <em>agbero</em> and drivers work together daily in the same garage for years, sometimes for decades. They know each other and develop various forms of sociability that could not be reduced to violent exploitation. </p>
<p>To a large extent, the book presents the drivers’ perspective, more than that of union members, whose voices are rarely heard. Most drivers are not members of the <a href="https://web.facebook.com/nurtwabuja/?_rdc=1&_rdr">National Union of Road Transport Workers</a>, but former drivers are often union members. </p>
<p>The union is powerful in regulating transport and plays a key role in electoral politics, two dimensions that remain to be explored in more detailed empirical works. </p>
<p>The book presents the union mainly as a criminal organisation. The author defends the hypothesis of a predatory union-state alliance that “eats the sweat” of drivers. This view has merit but it probably needs further explanation. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02255189.2022.2132924">My own research suggests</a> there are more ambivalent relationships between union members, state officials, police and military officers at the grassroots level. Union members are often in conflict with the police while negotiating with police officers for the release of their drivers from police stations or jails. None of them want the drivers working under their authority to be arrested, and many of them try to protect them against police extortion in order to keep business flowing.</p>
<p>Agbiboa makes a welcome distinction between <em>agbero</em> identified with a specific garage or motorpark and “area boys”, or “delinquents” associated with a particular neighbourhood. <em>Agbero</em> do not want to be associated with crime: they think of themselves as workers. Still, <em>agbero</em> are criminalised in the book. They are the easy target of public criticism. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A book cover" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The book.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/they-eat-our-sweat-9780198861546?cc=us&lang=en&">Oxford University Press</a></span>
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<h2><em>Agbero</em> seen as outlaws</h2>
<p>Drivers insist that <em>agbero</em> are making easy money from their work but, as my <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02255189.2022.2132924">research</a> has found, <em>agbero</em> are often in the same precarious conditions as transport workers themselves. Their leaders impose on them a daily revenue target to be taken from the drivers. Many of them hardly make a living from their work. </p>
<p>In my view, the <em>agbero</em> has become the new figure of a long history of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4100568">criminalisation of poor young urban men</a>. Transport in Nigeria could be better understood if <em>agbero</em> were analysed as the least powerful members of the union working for the benefit of more powerful and better connected members of society: union bureaucrats, government officials, politicians and law enforcement agents who have a common interest in keeping this revenue system intact. </p>
<p>These remarks aside, Agbiboa’s book is the most detailed and accurate account of Nigeria’s road transport system so far.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206027/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurent Fourchard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new book focuses on the politics of road transport, the everyday corruption and the hard-living world of transport workers in Lagos, Nigeria.Laurent Fourchard, Research Fellow, Sciences Po Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2086552023-07-03T00:35:53Z2023-07-03T00:35:53ZToo big, too heavy and too slow to change: road transport is way off track for net zero<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534947/original/file-20230630-27-ovj9iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=988%2C651%2C2462%2C1645&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The need to cut the emissions driving climate change is urgent, but it’s proving hard to decarbonise road transport in Australia. Its share of the nation’s total greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/">doubled</a> from 8% in 1990 to 16% in 2020. New vehicles sold in Australia have <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong-122378">barely improved</a> average emissions performance for the last decade or so. </p>
<p>The federal government <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022">publishes</a> emission forecasts to 2035 – 15 years short of 2050, the net-zero target date. Our <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_7a6920bdd9e8448385863a7c23ec9ecf.pdf">newly published study</a> forecasts road transport emissions through to 2050. The estimated reduction by 2050, 35–45% of pre-COVID levels in 2019, falls well short of what’s needed. </p>
<p>Our findings highlight three obstacles to achieving net zero. These are: Australia’s delay in switching to electric vehicles; growing sales of large, heavy vehicles such as SUVs and utes; and uncertainties about hydrogen as a fuel, especially for freight transport. These findings point to policy actions that could get road transport much closer to net zero.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1183518598376984577"}"></div></p>
<h2>How was this worked out?</h2>
<p>Emissions and energy use vary from vehicle to vehicle, so reliable forecasting requires a detailed breakdown of the on-road fleet. Our study <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/software">used</a> the Australian Fleet Model and the net zero vehicle emission model (n0vem).</p>
<p>The study focused on so-called <a href="https://www.cummins.com/news/2022/05/26/well-wheel-emissions-simplified">well-to-wheel emissions</a> from fuel production, distribution and use while driving. These activities account for about 75–85% of vehicle emissions. (<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-friendly-is-an-electric-car-it-all-comes-down-to-where-you-live-179003">Life-cycle assessment</a> estimates “cradle-to-grave” emissions, including vehicle manufacture and disposal.)</p>
<p>Working with European Union colleagues, our emissions simulation drew on an updated <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_7a6920bdd9e8448385863a7c23ec9ecf.pdf">EU scenario</a> (EU-27) showing the changes in the EU vehicle fleet needed to meet the latest (proposed) CO₂ targets. Our study assumed Australia will be ten years behind the EU across all vehicle classes. </p>
<p>We further modified the scenario to properly reflect Australian conditions. For instance, the EU has a much higher proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles than Australia, where buyers are now bypassing them for wholly electric vehicles. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1649244456141619200"}"></div></p>
<h2>Energy use is shifting, but too slowly</h2>
<p>Using this modified scenario, the simulation produces a forecast fall in total wheel-to-wheel emissions from Australian transport from 104 billion tonnes (Mt) in 2018 to 55-65Mt in 2050. Within the range of this 35–45% reduction, the outcome depends largely on the balance of renewable and fossil-fuel energy used to produce hydrogen.</p>
<p>The modelling nonetheless predicts a large shift in energy use in road transport in 2050, as 2019 was basically 100% fossil fuels. </p>
<p>The on-road energy efficiency of battery electric vehicles is roughly twice that of fuel cell electric (hydrogen) vehicles and roughly three times that of fossil-fuelled vehicles of similar type. </p>
<p>The modelling results make this clear. In 2050, battery electric vehicles account for about 70% of total travel, but 25% of on-road energy use and only about 10% of total emissions. </p>
<p>In contrast, fossil-fuelled vehicles account for about 25% of total travel in 2050, 60% of energy use and 75-85% of emissions. That’s even allowing for expected efficiency improvements. </p>
<p>This means the shift to a mostly electric fleet by 2050 plus the use of hydrogen is predicted to fall short of what’s needed to get to net zero. It will require aggressive new policies to increase the uptake of electric vehicles across all classes.</p>
<h2>Lighter vehicles make a big difference</h2>
<p>But that is not the whole story. One neglected issue is the growing proportion of <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-may-be-underestimating-just-how-bad-carbon-belching-suvs-are-for-the-climate-and-for-our-health-190743">big, heavy passenger vehicles</a> (SUVs, utes). This trend is very noticeable in Australia. The laws of physics mean heavier vehicles need much more energy and fuel per kilometre of driving, and so produce more emissions. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1571650280135053314"}"></div></p>
<p>Currently, a large diesel SUV typically emits a kilogram of CO₂ for every 3 kilometres of driving, compared to 15km for a light electric vehicle and 200 kilometres for an e-bike. An average electric vehicle currently emits 1kg of CO₂ every 7km. </p>
<p>This distance is expected to be around 60km in 2050, when renewables power the electricity grid. A lightweight electric car will more than double the distance to 125km per kilogram of CO₂. Reducing vehicle weights and optimising energy efficiency in transport will be essential to meet emission targets.</p>
<p>The study modelled the impacts of <a href="https://www.automotiveworld.com/special-reports/vehicle-lightweighting-2/">lightweighting</a> passenger vehicles while keeping buses and commercial vehicles the same. If Australians had driven only small cars in 2019 for personal use, total road transport emissions would have been about 15% lower. </p>
<p>The reduction in emissions from simply shifting to smaller cars is <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/national-greenhouse-accounts-2019/national-inventory-report-2019">similar to</a> emissions from domestic aviation and domestic shipping combined. Importantly, lightweighting cuts emissions for all kinds of vehicles.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1512865995248963588"}"></div></p>
<h2>The uncertainties about hydrogen</h2>
<p>Fuel cell electric vehicles using hydrogen account for only a few percent of all travel, but most will likely be large trucks. As a result, in our scenarios, they use a little over 10% of total on-road energy and produce 5-20% of total emissions, depending on the energy source used for hydrogen production and distribution. </p>
<p>The modified EU scenario includes a significant uptake of hydrogen vehicles by 2050. That’s by no means guaranteed. </p>
<p>The uptake in Australia has been negligible to date. That’s due to costs (vehicle and fuel), the need for new hydrogen fuel infrastructure, less mature technology (compared to battery electric vehicles) and limited vehicle availability. <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-must-rapidly-decarbonise-transport-but-hydrogens-not-the-answer-166830">Unresolved aspects</a> of hydrogen in transport include lower energy efficiency, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-australia-to-lead-the-way-on-green-hydrogen-first-we-must-find-enough-water-196144">need for clean water</a>, uncertainty about leakage, fuel-cell durability and value for consumers. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1461822210427994116"}"></div></p>
<h2>How do we get back on track?</h2>
<p>Our study suggests Australia is on track to miss the net-zero target for 2050 mainly because of the large proportions of fossil-fuelled vehicles and large and heavy passenger vehicles. </p>
<p>These two aspects could become targets for new policies such as public information campaigns, tax incentives for small, light vehicles, bans on selling fossil fuel vehicles and programs to scrap them. Other options to cut emissions include measures to reduce travel demand, optimise freight logistics and shift travel to public transport, to name a few. </p>
<p>The study confirms the scale of the challenge of decarbonising road transport. Australia will need “all hands on deck” – government, industry and consumers – to achieve net zero in 2050.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208655/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Smit is the founder and director at Transport Energy/Emission Research Pty Ltd (TER) and an Adjunct Associate Professor at University of Technology Sydney.</span></em></p>A new study estimates a reduction in emissions of only 35-45% of pre-COVID levels by 2050. Lighter vehicles and faster uptake of electric vehicles can dramatically improve progress towards net zero.Robin Smit, Adjunct Associate Professor, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2044952023-05-09T13:34:32Z2023-05-09T13:34:32ZAir pollution is a hidden pandemic in Africa - tips on how to reduce your exposure and help combat it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524381/original/file-20230504-25-q92t5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C2943%2C1909&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Children and elderly people are vulnerable to air pollution. Photo by Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/school-boy-walks-past-smokeand-fumes-emitted-from-a-dump-in-news-photo/635231222?adppopup=true">from www,gettyimages.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rapid urbanisation in Africa is worsening air pollution levels. There are economic as well as health consequences. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2542-5196%2821%2900201-1">Air pollution</a> threatens human health, health systems and economic activity. It is the <a href="https://www.stateofglobalair.org/sites/default/files/documents/2022-10/soga-africa-report.pdf#page=3">second leading risk factor for death</a> across Africa, contributing to an estimated 1.1 million deaths on the continent in 2019. </p>
<p>The continent has an urban population of <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/africas-urbanisation-dynamics-2022-economic-power-africas-cities">over 500 million</a>. This is projected to be over <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1267863/number-of-people-living-in-urban-areas-in-africa/#:%7E:text=The%20urban%20population%20on%20the,reach%20722%20million%20by%202026.">700 million by 2026</a>. In the face of such enormous numbers and a seemingly insurmountable problem, it can feel difficult for ordinary people to protect themselves or make a difference. </p>
<p>But, as we found in our research, many strategies are possible. We have drawn up a list of suggestions, divided into three categories: practical tips to reduce exposure, how to keep your community air quality cleaner and, lastly, what steps policy makers can take.</p>
<h2>Air pollution’s many threats</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412022006365">Our research</a> highlights the fact that air pollution is a multifaceted and complex issue to tackle. Intervening can span different ministries such as transport, environment and health. Acting on one sector can affect a different sector, so it is important to clarify the role and responsibilities of all actors. </p>
<p>To formulate solutions and strategies that are acceptable and feasible to the general public, multiple stakeholders must collaborate: policy makers, civil society, communities, and academia. </p>
<p>Our findings show that much time can be saved by not ‘re-inventing the wheel’ and learning from implementers on the opportunities and barriers to tackle air pollution in cities. </p>
<p>We found that most strategies (83%) being used to tackle air pollution focused on household air pollution compared to outdoor air pollution (17%). This is even though outdoor air pollution is increasing due to urbanisation. </p>
<p>Overall, the strategies focus on technology (75%), more than on policy (20%), and even less on behavioural change (5%). </p>
<p>Our findings point to the need for more policy interventions. There are some obvious gaps in present approaches. These include policies that address changes in peoples’ behaviour. Another example is addressing major sources of pollution such as vehicles and two and three wheel motorcycles. Only 6% of all strategies applied in African contexts focus on decreasing air pollution through transport yet the continent is faced with a large increase of “used” (second-hand or pre-owned) vehicles.</p>
<p>Based on our insights, we’ve come up with the following list of practical tips. </p>
<h2>Practical tips to reduce exposure</h2>
<p>These four suggestions will go some way to protecting your health.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Avoid exercising outdoors when pollution levels are high. If possible, exercise indoors during this time. </p></li>
<li><p>Avoid exercising near high-traffic areas.</p></li>
<li><p>Avoid having children and other vulnerable groups such as elderly people with asthma) where there’s cooking. This is particularly true if solid biomass fuels like firewood, charcoal, dung and crop residues and being used as fuel.</p></li>
<li><p>Ensure home cooking areas are properly ventilated, especially for homes using solid biomass fuels.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trucks in a traffic jam on a busy highway" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524128/original/file-20230503-18-dkvkhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3690%2C2440&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524128/original/file-20230503-18-dkvkhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524128/original/file-20230503-18-dkvkhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524128/original/file-20230503-18-dkvkhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524128/original/file-20230503-18-dkvkhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524128/original/file-20230503-18-dkvkhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524128/original/file-20230503-18-dkvkhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Road traffic is a serious cause of air pollution in African cities. Photo by Olukayode Jaiyeola/NurPhoto.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ariel-view-of-apapa-sea-port-in-apapa-lagos-nigeria-on-30-news-photo/1179097853?adppopup=true">from www,gettyimages.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How to keep the air in your community cleaner</h2>
<p>You can take some steps that will have a wider impact. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Avoid open trash burning</p></li>
<li><p>improve solid waste management at both the household and community levels.</p></li>
<li><p>Promote awareness-raising activities around the importance of breathing clean air in cities.</p></li>
<li><p>Encourage your local businesses, community and city leaders and your policy makers to take air pollution seriously. You can do this by organising advocacy groups or support public online platforms that report real time levels of air pollution to increase accountability</p></li>
<li><p>Promote efforts to raise health literacy about how air pollution increases diseases such as asthma and stress.</p></li>
<li><p>Request education modules in schools for children and young people to be sensitised and to gain knowledge about air pollution</p></li>
<li><p>Buy from businesses that follow air quality guidelines and aim for net zero targets </p></li>
<li><p>Engage in active travel (walking and cycling) whenever possible to decrease transport-related emissions</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What your policy makers can do</h2>
<p>You can also play an active role in getting policy makers to take concrete steps. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Set standards and guidelines to replace obsolete technologies with clean and environmentally friendly ones.</p></li>
<li><p>Get communities involved in local interventions to decrease air pollution. </p></li>
<li><p>Promote policies that don’t allow anyone to smoke indoors and support measures to make all public places tobacco-free.</p></li>
<li><p>Provide forms of non-motorised transport to increase active lifestyle, physical activity and reduce emissions.</p></li>
<li><p>Support the installation of sensors to collect air quality data and monitor the pollution levels.</p></li>
<li><p>Communicate daily air pollution forecasts to let people know when the air is unhealthy in the community. This can be through local radio and TV weather reports, newspapers and through community WhatsApp groups.</p></li>
<li><p>Introduce cleaner-burning fuels and improved stoves that burn solid fuels more efficiently.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>By considering these tips and strategies, communities and leaders have the opportunity to beat air pollution, the invisible pandemic beneath our noses.</p>
<p>The air we breathe represents the living space and the quality of life we all need for a healthier and more sustainable planet, including for generations unborn.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Okello Gabriel works at the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership and his Research Fellowship is funded by a philanthropic donation from AstraZeneca. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and not necessarily those of AstraZeneca. He is affiliated with African Centre for Clean Air. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meelan Thondoo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Air pollution accounts for many deaths in Africa yearly. However, this may change if people learn to protect themselves and hold their leaders accountable.Gabriel Okello, Prince of Wales Global Sustainability Fellow, University of CambridgeMeelan Thondoo, Research Associate, MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1794642022-03-20T19:01:28Z2022-03-20T19:01:28ZAs federal government spending on small transport projects creeps up, marginal seats get a bigger share<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452684/original/file-20220317-8303-1k7qwtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C24%2C5448%2C4066&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Brace for the federal election – the transport promises have begun. Some are pretty big, such as Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce’s A$678 million for the <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/coalition-s-678m-outback-road-plan-links-perth-to-townsville-20220220-p59y1n#:%7E:text=The%20Coalition%20is%20sharpening%20up,and%20other%20politically%20contested%20regions.">Outback Highway</a>, and Opposition leader Anthony Albanese’s $500 million down-payment on <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-promises-500m-for-sydney-to-newcastle-leg-of-future-high-speed-rail-20220101-p59l8m.html">faster rail</a> between Newcastle and Sydney. If history is any guide, a rush of small local promises won’t be far behind.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/roundabouts-overpasses-carparks-hauling-the-federal-government-back-to-its-proper-role-in-transport-projects">new report</a> from Grattan Institute reveals, federal government spending on small local transport projects has grown dramatically in recent years. </p>
<p>Under the two most recent Labor terms of government, each electorate received an average of $26 million worth of small transport projects (projects worth up to $10 million each) per year. In the following three Coalition terms, that number increased tenfold to $264 million per electorate per year, on average. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Federal government spending on small local transport projects has grown dramatically in recent years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But just because there’s more spending on small local projects, does it follow that it’s partisan political spending, or “pork-barrelling”? This new report shows what really matters is whether or not the money is allocated under objective, transparent criteria.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/of-australias-32-biggest-infrastructure-projects-just-eight-had-a-public-business-case-166847">Of Australia's 32 biggest infrastructure projects, just eight had a public business case</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A car park is seen from the air" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One part of the Urban Congestion Fund, the $660 million commuter carpark fund, attracted public interest after the auditor-general published a scathing report on it last year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Taking a closer look at transport spending patterns</h2>
<p>Two long-standing transport programs allocate federal funds according to relatively objective criteria: the <a href="https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/about/local-initiatives/black-spot-program/index.aspx">Black Spot</a> program, and <a href="https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/about/local-initiatives/roads-to-recovery-program/index.aspx">Roads to Recovery</a>. </p>
<p>The Black Spot program helps fund road-safety initiatives. To be eligible for funding, initiatives must have a benefit-to-cost ratio of at least 2-to-1, and the site must have a history of at least three casualty crashes in the past five years. The program was worth $104 million in 2020–21.</p>
<p>Roads to Recovery helps fund maintenance of local roads. The federal government provides funding to all local councils, using a formula based on population and road length. The program was worth $592 million in 2020–21.</p>
<p>Both programs are designed to favour rural and remote electorates. And that’s what’s happened under both Labor and Coalition governments, even though rural and remote seats are mostly held by the Coalition, often very safely. </p>
<p>In urban areas, too, the pattern of distribution of funds under these two programs has been remarkably similar under both Labor and Coalition governments. Black Spot and Roads to Recovery funds have been about as likely to go to safe as to marginal seats, and about as likely to go to government-held as to opposition-held seats.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two long-standing transport programs allocate federal funds according to relatively objective criteria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In contrast, the $4.9 billion <a href="https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/about/national-initiatives/urban-congestion-fund.aspx">Urban Congestion Fund</a> does not have eligibility criteria on its website. It’s the clearest case of a slush fund on the federal government’s books.</p>
<p>One component of the Urban Congestion Fund, the $660 million commuter carpark fund, has attracted significant public interest since the auditor-general published a scathing <a href="https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/administration-commuter-car-park-projects-within-the-urban-congestion-fund">report</a> on it last year. But the allocation of the remaining $4.2 billion has received less attention. </p>
<p>Grattan Institute’s <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/roundabouts-overpasses-carparks-hauling-the-federal-government-back-to-its-proper-role-in-transport-projects">latest report</a> shows marginal seats clearly get a bigger share of funds than safe seats under the Urban Congestion Fund. More funding has gone to the most marginal seats, such as Lindsay in Sydney, Higgins in Melbourne, Moreton in Brisbane, Hasluck in Perth, and Boothby in Adelaide. </p>
<p>And seats held by a Coalition member get a bigger share of the funds than seats held by Labor, the Greens, other minor parties, or independents. </p>
<p>For instance, the luckiest electorate in Sydney was Lindsay, centred on Penrith, which received close to $200 million; Melbourne’s Aston, centred on Boronia, received close to $300 million; and Brisbane’s Forde, centred on Beenleigh, received $234 million.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the electorate containing Sydney’s CBD got no funding, the electorate containing Melbourne’s CBD got $5 million, and the electorate containing Brisbane’s CBD got $2 million.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marginal seats clearly get a bigger share of funds than safe seats under the Urban Congestion Fund.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some might say a similar pattern of allocation of small funds, regardless of which party is in government, looks like a fair distribution. But there’s a broader issue: there has been massive growth in these small grants in recent years. </p>
<p>Aggregate federal transport spending has crept up only modestly over recent years, so a bigger proportion of the aggregate is now being directed to small projects – which is the proper and agreed remit of the state or local government, not the federal government. </p>
<p>The spending on small local projects by a national government should stop. Whichever party wins the 2022 federal election should strengthen the transport spending guardrails. </p>
<p>Instead of sprinkling public money on small projects around the country, the federal government should retreat to its proper transport funding role as a national government – no more roundabouts, overpasses, or carparks, just nationally significant infrastructure funded in an even-handed way.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Instead of sprinkling public money on small projects around the country, the federal government should retreat to its proper transport funding role as a national government – no more roundabouts, overpasses, or carparks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/older-women-often-rent-in-poverty-shared-home-equity-could-help-177452">Older women often rent in poverty – shared home equity could help</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179464/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities. Marion Terrill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any other company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.</span></em></p>There’s more spending on small local projects, so does it follow that it’s ‘pork-barrelling’? A new report shows what really matters is if the money is allocated under objective, transparent criteria.Marion Terrill, Transport and Cities Program Director, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1717412021-11-13T23:36:06Z2021-11-13T23:36:06ZGovernment assumes 90% of Australia’s new car sales will be electric by 2050. But it’s a destination without a route<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431769/original/file-20211113-1788-11q91rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C19%2C4242%2C2652&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The response to Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s announcement of an electric vehicle policy has focused on its inconsistency with his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/07/shorten-wants-to-end-the-weekend-morrison-attacks-labors-electric-vehicle-policy">derisive statements</a> in 2019 that the technology would “end the weekend”. </p>
<p>What’s more important, however, is whether the policy is consistent with the government’s belated commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Examining <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/November%202021/document/australias-long-term-emissions-reduction-plan-modelling.pdf">the modelling</a> behind the commitment allows us to assess this, and possibly helps explain the timing of Morrison’s rhetorical pivot.</p>
<p>Transport is covered only briefly in the modelling, which was released late on Friday, and the government does not set out technological goals. However, it is assumed by 2050, the proportion of electric vehicles will have risen to 90%, compared to around 1% at present.</p>
<p>2050 is a long way off, but motor vehicles are long-lived pieces of capital equipment. If we’re going to replace 90% of the existing fleet with electric vehicles, we must start now. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="cars and trucks in tunnel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431770/original/file-20211113-23-dpt30d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431770/original/file-20211113-23-dpt30d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431770/original/file-20211113-23-dpt30d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431770/original/file-20211113-23-dpt30d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431770/original/file-20211113-23-dpt30d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431770/original/file-20211113-23-dpt30d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431770/original/file-20211113-23-dpt30d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We must start now to electrify Australia’s vehicle fleet.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Simple arithmetic</h2>
<p>The average age of Australian cars is about <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/9309.0Main+Features131%20Jan%202018?OpenDocument=">ten years</a>, implying they last about 20 years on average. So, the shift to electrics will need to be well under way ten years from now – by about 2030.</p>
<p>To illustrate the speed of the adjustment needed, suppose electrics represent 50% of new car sales by 2030. This was the target proposed by then-Labor leader Bill Shorten at the 2019 election. Morrison rejected it the time, but now appears to have tacitly embraced something similar.</p>
<p>Given the 2030 starting point, and assuming a 20-year vehicle life, how fast would the share of electric vehicles need to grow to reach 90% of Australia’s fleet by 2050 – and how fast would the sale of conventional cars have to fall? </p>
<p>According to my calculations, the sale of traditional vehicles would have to cease completely by 2038 to reach the government’s target.</p>
<p>Roughly speaking, Australians buy <a href="https://www.fcai.com.au/sales">1 million</a> new vehicles a year, with a total stock of 20 million. </p>
<p>If the share of traditional vehicle sales falls from 50% to zero between 2030 and 2038, that leaves about 2 million traditional vehicles, or 10% of the total fleet, remaining on the road by 2050 (with the rest being electric vehicles).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-world-surges-ahead-on-electric-vehicle-policy-the-morrison-governments-new-strategy-leaves-australia-idling-in-the-garage-169824">As the world surges ahead on electric vehicle policy, the Morrison government's new strategy leaves Australia idling in the garage</a>
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<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="silver cars in row" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431774/original/file-20211113-38712-n72dn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431774/original/file-20211113-38712-n72dn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431774/original/file-20211113-38712-n72dn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431774/original/file-20211113-38712-n72dn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431774/original/file-20211113-38712-n72dn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431774/original/file-20211113-38712-n72dn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431774/original/file-20211113-38712-n72dn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australians buy one million new cars a year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A challenging task</h2>
<p>This estimate assumes the number of cars sold every year remains constant. But in fact, it has been increasing over time, which has a couple of effects. </p>
<p>First it means newer cars are over-represented, relative to the case of constant sales. That implies the expected lifetime of cars is actually longer than 20 years. And if the number of cars keeps growing, the task of decarbonising is even harder.</p>
<p>A policy of electrification should be accompanied by measures to encourage the use of public transport, cycling and walking, as well as remote work and other ways of reducing unnecessary travel.</p>
<p>In view of the magnitude and urgency of the task, the Morrison government’s commitment to spend <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/on-the-road/prime-minister-scott-morrison-to-unveil-plan-for-more-electric-vehicles/news-story/a2e8dd7f361b8bd82942e42cd4a1a87b">A$250 million on electric vehicle charging stations</a> (about $10 for each person in Australia) is nowhere near sufficient. </p>
<p>To electrify Australia’s vehicle fleet in time, the government must either provide price incentives to consumers or mandate improvements in fuel efficiency across the vehicle fleet. Such government interventions appear anathema to Morrison’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/scott-morrison-backs-cando-capitalism/news-story/705371b71385112319b6c34cc9ca636c">new mantra</a> of “can-do capitalism”. But something of the the kind will be necessary.</p>
<p>The simplest approach would be a combination of tax relief and subsidies. This would reduce the cost difference between electric and traditional vehicles, which one estimate puts at <a href="https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/electric-car-price-comparison-what-is-the-real-difference-in-cost-between-the-hyundai-kona">$20,000-$30,000</a>. This is <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/ev-vs-ice-the-cost-gap-that-is-holding-australia-back-99666/">partly offset</a> by fuel savings and the lower repair costs of electric vehicles. </p>
<p>A subsidy or tax exemption of $10,000, declining over time as the cost advantage of traditional vehicles diminished, would promote fairly rapid uptake of electric vehicles. The likely cost would be around $1 billion a year, or $20 billion over the transition.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="electric vehicle being charged in parking lot" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431771/original/file-20211113-15367-1p2742b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431771/original/file-20211113-15367-1p2742b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431771/original/file-20211113-15367-1p2742b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431771/original/file-20211113-15367-1p2742b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431771/original/file-20211113-15367-1p2742b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431771/original/file-20211113-15367-1p2742b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431771/original/file-20211113-15367-1p2742b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A subsidy or tax exemption would promote electric vehicle uptake.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Baker/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Getting a handle on the numbers</h2>
<p>To put these numbers in perspective, comparisons are useful.</p>
<p>The New South Wales government has just announced <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-government-to-spend-105m-to-cover-cost-difference-for-fleet-evs-20211109-p597ih.html">$100 million</a> to cover the cost difference for electric vehicles bought by councils, taxi companies and other fleet operators. This, covering part of the fleet in one state, comes on top of $490 million announced in the state’s June budget. </p>
<p>As NSW Treasurer Matt Kean <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/10/nsw-treasurer-takes-swipe-at-morrisons-electric-car-policy-as-state-dwarfs-federal-funding">pointed out</a>, his Liberal-Nationals government is taking the electric vehicle transition much more seriously than its federal counterpart.</p>
<p>Alternatively, we could look at the <a href="https://inlandrail.artc.com.au">inland rail scheme</a>, a proposed 1,700km freight rail line between Melbourne and Brisbane. The National Party demanded the project be accelerated as part-payment for their acceptance of a 2050 net-zero target. </p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/missing-port-link-makes-mockery-of-10bn-inland-rail-project/news-story/e56d305afe3b96d610069e2ff0ab75a6">likely white elephant</a> is budgeted to cost <a href="https://inlandrail.artc.com.au/what-is-inland-rail/funding-inland-rail/">$14.5 billion</a>, an amount which will almost certainly blow out. It will reduce the use of fuel for trucks, but at an immense cost.</p>
<p>For the amount paid to placate one noisy lobby group, we could cover most of the cost of electrifying Australia’s road vehicle fleet.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man addresses camera" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431773/original/file-20211113-15515-j9o8cj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431773/original/file-20211113-15515-j9o8cj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431773/original/file-20211113-15515-j9o8cj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431773/original/file-20211113-15515-j9o8cj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431773/original/file-20211113-15515-j9o8cj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431773/original/file-20211113-15515-j9o8cj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431773/original/file-20211113-15515-j9o8cj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">NSW Treasurer Matt Kean has implied his government is taking electric vehicles far more seriously than the Morrison government.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not there yet</h2>
<p>There is an alternative, recommended by bodies including the federal government’s own Climate Change Authority. It would involve a <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/publications/light-vehicle-emissions-standards-australia">fuel efficiency requirement</a> for new car sales, which would work similarly to the Renewable Energy Target. </p>
<p>Vehicle importers could decide whether to meet the target by shifting to electrics or more fuel efficient traditional vehicles. Over time the target would fall to zero, requiring complete electrification. The cost would be spread across importers and car buyers.</p>
<p>A third approach would be to do nothing now, but pay owners of traditional vehicles to scrap them before the end of their working life. </p>
<p>This would involve something like the Cash for Clunkers scheme <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2010/04/05/did-cash-clunkers-work-intended">adopted</a> in the United States under the Obama administration and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-07-24/gillard-pledges-cash-for-clunkers-scheme/918274">briefly floated</a> by the Gillard government in 2010. While enabling government to defer action, it would cost more in the long run.</p>
<p>The Morrison government’s commitment to a 2050 net-zero target is a welcome step, if long overdue. But as far as motor vehicles are concerned, the policies to get there are badly lagging the ambition.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/take-heart-at-whats-unfolded-at-cop26-in-glasgow-the-world-can-still-hold-global-heating-to-1-5-171488">Take heart at what’s unfolded at COP26 in Glasgow – the world can still hold global heating to 1.5℃</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171741/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority and took part in the preparation of its report proposing a Fuel Efficiency Target</span></em></p>The sale of traditional vehicles would have to cease completely by 2038 to reach the government’s target. So where’s the plan to get there?John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1652632021-07-29T16:18:52Z2021-07-29T16:18:52ZE-highways: why motorway cables are probably not the best way to decarbonise lorries<p>Road transport accounts for around <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-transport-2020">a quarter of all CO₂ emissions</a> – reducing this is crucial to reaching net zero emissions in the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en">next 25 years</a>. When it comes to alternative fuels in passenger vehicles like cars, the automotive industry seems united around batteries and electric motors. In the UK, the growth in electric vehicle sales matches the decline in new <a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/evs-and-afvs-registrations/">petrol and diesel</a> cars. </p>
<hr>
<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/e-highways-why-motorway-cables-are-probably-not-the-best-way-to-decarbonise-lorries-165263&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
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<p>But when it comes to the haulage industry, with its lorries and other heavy goods vehicles (often abbreviated to HGVs), the path is not so clear. Each HGV weighs <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/veh05-licensed-heavy-goods-vehicles">3.5 tonnes</a> or more and <a href="https://assets.new.siemens.com/siemens/assets/api/uuid:91378999-ec01-4c27-a469-4da416ad26de/smo-ehighway-facts-about-climate-friendly-road-freight-transport.pdf">travels long distances</a>. Diesel has been the fuel of choice, offering fast refuel times and long ranges on a full tank.</p>
<p>Of course, diesel engines emit CO₂, and so the industry and governments are <a href="https://trl.co.uk/about-us/our-vision-mission/harmful-emissions">trialling new technologies</a> to clean up the sector. The UK government recently announced £2 million in funding to research the feasibility of installing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/27/uk-government-backs-scheme-for-motorway-cables-to-power-lorries">overhead power lines</a> on a section of motorway near Scunthorpe to power lorries without fossil fuels. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An overhead voltage cable on an e-highway track." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">E-highways would power lorries in a similar way to trams and trains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/detail-overhead-voltage-cable-on-ehighway-1640760415">XXLPhoto/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Known as e-highways, and similar to what you get above trains and trams, poles are set up along the inside lane of the motorway. From these, 700 volt power lines are hung which the lorries connect to via a device known as a pantograph, which provides the power to the motor.</p>
<h2>Motorway trams?</h2>
<p>Questions about this system of powering HGVs abound. How will the lorries overtake or leave the lane while connected to the power lines? What might happen if the overhead cables strike the vehicle’s load? Trials are ongoing <a href="https://group.vattenfall.com/press-and-media/newsroom/2021/sweden-and-germany-are-leading-the-development-for-electric-roads">across continental Europe</a> to try to answer these questions. </p>
<p>While this system is undoubtedly the most efficient way to power a vehicle – no energy is lost between the power lines and the lorry – it is potentially the most difficult to coordinate, as it will require a whole new set of infrastructure on roads and an entire fleet of compatible vehicles, as well as a way of charging haulage companies for the electricity they use. All of this equates to higher costs for an industry that works on <a href="https://www.fleetpoint.org/logistics/logistics-costs-set-to-rise-warns-logistics-uk/">tight margins</a> as it is. </p>
<p>Siemens, the German company leading many of these trials, suggests that lorries will need to have an engine or motor and fuel source such as batteries or diesel, as well as the pantograph system to make them compatible with the e-highway. This will surely make them more expensive to buy, though a study in the UK suggested that hauliers would recoup some of this on fuel savings <a href="http://www.csrf.ac.uk/2020/07/white-paper-long-haul-freight-electrification/">by using electricity</a>. The same study estimates the cost of building power lines to cover 65% of the UK’s lorry routes will be in the region of £20 billion.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Overhead contact wires span an e-highway in Germany." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">E-highway systems have been tested in Germany, Sweden, the US and soon, the UK.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/electric-overhead-contact-wire-hybrid-trucks-1428885446">Maren Winter/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The alternatives</h2>
<p>There are two other technologies with zero tailpipe emissions available to HGVs. The first is the <a href="http://www.ukh2mobility.co.uk/fcevs/">hydrogen fuel cell</a>, which turns pressurised hydrogen into electricity and water (so not strictly zero emission, but certainly zero carbon) to power a motor. The second replaces the hydrogen and the fuel cell with a large lithium-ion battery, which can be recharged at conventional high-power charging stations, or HGV-specific “megachargers”, such as those planned by the <a href="https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-megacharger-charging-port-close-up-look/">carmaker Tesla</a>. </p>
<p>Both of these options present similar problems to e-highways. The most significant is a lack of infrastructure – there are just ten hydrogen fuelling stations <a href="http://www.ukh2mobility.co.uk/stations/">in the UK</a>, and these are better equipped for refuelling cars than lorries. UK rapid charging stations for electric vehicles exist in their thousands, but they take hours longer to fully charge an HGV compared with a car, and so are more suitable for overnight charging.</p>
<p>The haulage industry will want clarity from the government over which technology it should back, as its vehicles cost a lot of money and must continue to generate income, as well as keep essential goods moving in the UK. This is no doubt the reason that trials are ongoing, to try and understand which option hauliers should take. </p>
<p>It’s doubtful that all three technologies will end up in mainstream use, so where does the industry’s future lie? E-highways will be efficient, and the technology is already well understood from use in the rail industry, so workers have the skills to implement them. But the most liberal estimate is still <a href="http://www.csrf.ac.uk/2020/07/white-paper-long-haul-freight-electrification/">65% road coverage</a> by the late 2030s. Lorries would still need an independent way of moving when off the e-highway. </p>
<p>Hydrogen will need a massive investment in infrastructure too, and is potentially <a href="https://4thgeneration.energy/life-cycles-emissions-of-hydrogen/">not as green</a> as electricity as <a href="https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/hydrogen">95% of the gas</a> today is generated from fossil fuels.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A hydrogen fuel pump at a service station with lorries in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A fully hydrogen-fuelled lorry fleet is a long way off.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/self-service-hydrogen-filling-station-on-1921761497">Scharfsinn/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Which leaves electric battery power. The rate at which people are switching to battery electric vehicles and the availability of <a href="https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/">chargers is increasing</a> exponentially, while the cost of the technology decreases. But the much-hyped Tesla Semi truck has been <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/07/26/tesla-delays-semi-truck-to-2022-cybertruck-back-burnered-for-model-y/">pushed back</a> another year and the company continues to concentrate on passenger cars. And the issue holding all EVs back is <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/batteries-storage/evs-to-drive-a-lithium-supply-crunch">supply of batteries</a>, which is struggling to keep pace with the growth of ownership.</p>
<p>To lower emissions and get to market quickly, electric batteries may prove to be the better option, though an ultimate mix of hydrogen and electric is likely. On a large scale, e-highways might push upfront costs too far for hauliers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Stacey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Heavy goods vehicles predominantly run on diesel. Here are three options for eliminating their emissions.Tom Stacey, Senior Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1630952021-07-06T15:00:28Z2021-07-06T15:00:28ZNigeria doesn’t have a coherent strategy to manage freight: how it can get there<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/409649/original/file-20210705-27-12xd6gx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigeria needs more than trucks to achieve effective freight management. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google images </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nigeria’s transport network is largely in a state of <a href="https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/overview/moving-forward-two-major-policy-plans-have-shaped-sector%E2%80%99s-growing-infrastructure-and-mid-term">disrepair</a> due to inadequate investment over the decades, economic and population growth, and ineffective policies and plans. </p>
<p>For instance, Tin Can and Apapa ports in Lagos continue to suffer from inadequate cargo handling equipment. This results in <a href="https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v9i1.180">expensive delays</a>. And when goods are eventually cleared, absence of rail connectivity results in them having to be hauled over poor and congested roads to the northern and eastern parts of the country. </p>
<p>These factors often result in accidents, breakdowns and further delays. All are detrimental to the economy.</p>
<p>Such ineffectiveness is in spite of a series of national <a href="https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/GPP/article/view/7011;https://isdsnet.com/ijds-v2n2-5.pdf">transport policies</a>. Reforms were initiated in 2003, 2008 and 2010. These paid some attention to the possibility of intermodalism – ensuring trucked goods are moved on to rail or water, and back to truck for final delivery. These reforms also considered privatisation and public-private partnerships. However, none of these policies and reforms made a significant difference. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1684-19992016000100012">Costs</a> associated with ineffective and inefficient national transportation and logistics systems are well documented. The International Trade Administration, an agency of the US government, citing a survey by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, showed that the Nigerian economy loses an estimated revenue of <a href="https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-logistics-sector">N3.46 trillion</a> annually. </p>
<p>Nigeria connects to the global and regional economy through international maritime shipping and air while its internal connections are mostly by road and rail movements. Given this, any freight logistics plan for the country must be seen as part of a global supply chain network.</p>
<p>In my view, the time has come for a serious consideration of an overarching and holistic national freight <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2016.1182793">logistics strategy</a> for Nigeria for the next few decades.</p>
<p>It would bring together all tiers of government and industry to provide a coordinated, national multi-modal approach to freight planning. And it would address Nigeria’s freight challenges, while supporting its long term international competitiveness.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://eprints.qut.edu.au/25502/">experienced logistics</a> analyst, consultant, scholar and educator in the developing and developed worlds, I have come across a range of relatively effective national <a href="https://www.portsregulator.org/images/documents/National_Freight_Logistics_Strategy.pdf">freight logistics strategies</a> such as those of South Africa, Panama, Vietnam and Thailand. </p>
<p>They provide useful benchmarks for what is possible.</p>
<h2>Why plans haven’t worked</h2>
<p>Firstly, transport traditionally gets constant attention from public authorities. But logistics and supply chain management is often <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2016.1182793">considered</a> to be a private business-oriented activity. </p>
<p>Public authorities should be paying much closer attention to it, especially in relation to its integration with trade, and the economy. </p>
<p>Secondly, decision makers still take a piecemeal view and approach. This is clear from the fact that there are a number of disparate plans that touch on transport. These include the <a href="https://nesgroup.org/storage/app/public/policies/National-Intergrated-Infractructure-Master-Plan-2015-2043_compressed_1562697068.pdf">Nigeria Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan</a> which was put in place in March 2015 by the National Planning Commission. And then there’s the <a href="https://statehouse.gov.ng/policy/economy/economic-recovery-and-growth-plan/">Economic Recovery and Growth Plan</a> which was approved by the government in 2016 for execution in the period 2017 to 2020. </p>
<p>Similarly, there are several oversight agencies. For example, air transport alone has three – the <a href="https://www.nama.gov.ng/">Nigerian Airspace Management Agency</a>, <a href="https://ncaa.gov.ng/">Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority</a> and the <a href="https://www.faan.gov.ng/">Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria</a> – but none has a freight focus. </p>
<p>A piecemeal approach results in insufficient integration of trade and economic considerations in the design, operation and management of the national transport system. The outcome is poor logistics and supply chain management.</p>
<h2>What the plan needs to cover</h2>
<p>A well-developed <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1785965">freight logistics strategy</a> should be integrated and overarching. It should <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJPDLM-10-2014-0243/full/pdf?title=the-benefits-of-logistics-clustering">facilitate</a> the safe and efficient movement of freight within the country. It would also integrate the country seamlessly within the West African sub-region and beyond.</p>
<p>The plan should address sources of freight generation, commodity flows and associated <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-019-09995-5">data-based modelling</a>. It should also cover the transportation and distribution industry and workforce, storage and warehousing location principles, and movement of bulk commodities, containers and general cargo through major ports, airports, inland dry ports, transport corridors and intermodal terminals. </p>
<p>In addition <a href="https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-logistics-sector">the plan</a> should cover railroad access, water port access and air cargo access to allow efficient access of bulk freight to support agricultural regions, production clusters, local industries, businesses and consumers. </p>
<p>Lastly, the strategy should address compatibility of data and information standards, platforms and systems. This would ensure smooth interactions between trading partners and carriers, as well as the introduction of modern and productive freight technologies. South Africa, Panama, Thailand and Vietnam are some examples Nigeria can learn from.</p>
<h2>How it can be achieved</h2>
<p>A national freight logistics strategy like this would be different from the myriad existing government plans and policies. For example, it would reduce transaction and coordination costs for freight operations and the economy as a whole. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/transport/freight/freight-supply-chain-submissions/RDA_Hunter.pdf">The policy</a> can be developed through systematic freight research based on accurate data and other evidence from stakeholders. This may include a series of nationwide inquiries into the priorities for national freight and supply chains. </p>
<p>Other relevant data and information can be collected through industry partnerships and extensive non-partisan consultations. </p>
<p>Each country has its unique issues. A thorough and representative <a href="https://www.webguinee.net/blogguinee/2016/11/nigeria-soldiers-as-policymakers-1960s-1970s">consultation process</a> would therefore be crucial.</p>
<p>A thorough mapping exercise also needs to be done.</p>
<p>Freight networks and hubs consist of multiple visible and invisible economic, social and political connections. These combine to provide an <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1785965">effectively working system</a> and must be identified. </p>
<p>For example, Lagos and Kano are monocentric hubs. What’s meant by this is that freight has to be trucked in or out from the outskirts of the city sprawl, and from other parts of Nigeria at great cost. And with difficulty. A national decentralised system with several hubs across Nigeria would make much more sense. This would allow logistics facilities and infrastructure to be located closer to the sources of major freight generation and consumption, and closer to key transport corridors.</p>
<p>This would make freight transport less reliant on Lagos ports. In turn this would ease the pressure on transport networks. This has positive implications for efficiency, productivity, transport emissions, noise reduction and social equity.</p>
<p>Consideration should therefore be given to several other hubs outside of Lagos, Kano, Port Harcourt and Abuja. For instance, Enugu-Onitsha may serve as a freight hub to support manufacturing and trade, while Makurdi or a similar middle belt city can serve as hub for the food producing regions of the area.</p>
<p>Overall, an audit must be undertaken to identify regulatory, economic or environmental challenges. Skills and geography also need to be part of the picture. </p>
<p>Nigeria’s current approach to the movement of freight is fragmented. It needs a single point of national accountability. </p>
<p>While the current emphasis on road infrastructure projects is good, an integrated freight logistics and supply chain management approach would be better.</p>
<p>Logistics is not as attractive to senior politicians as simply building roads. It therefore struggles to gain political attention. But that’s no reason for the country not to pursue an integrated national freight logistics policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163095/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Oloruntoba does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In addition to transport, Nigeria needs to pay more attention to logistics and supply chain management.Richard Oloruntoba, Associate Professor of Supply Chain Management & Supply Chain Management Lead, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1625062021-06-10T20:08:33Z2021-06-10T20:08:33ZTracking the transition: the ‘forgotten’ emissions undoing the work of Australia’s renewable energy boom<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405586/original/file-20210610-16-1velgp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C4000%2C2988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>World leaders including Prime Minister Scott Morrison will gather in the UK this weekend for the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-49434667">G7 summit</a>. In <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/qa-perth-usasia-centre-perth-wa">a speech</a> on Wednesday ahead of the meeting, Morrison said Australia recognises the need to reach net-zero emissions in order to tackle climate change, and expects to achieve the goal by 2050. </p>
<p>So has Australia started the journey towards deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions?</p>
<p>In the electricity supply system, the answer is yes, as renewables form an ever-greater share of the electricity mix. But elsewhere in the energy sector – in transport, industry and buildings – there has been little or no progress.</p>
<p>This situation needs to change. These other parts of the energy system contribute nearly 40% of all national greenhouse gas emissions – and the share is growing. In a <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/ccep-working-paper/18914/australian-energy-transition-indicators">new working paper</a> out today, we propose a way to track the low-carbon transition across the energy sector and check progress over the last decade.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="woman cooks in kitchen with gas stove" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405587/original/file-20210610-26-xknlsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405587/original/file-20210610-26-xknlsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405587/original/file-20210610-26-xknlsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405587/original/file-20210610-26-xknlsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405587/original/file-20210610-26-xknlsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405587/original/file-20210610-26-xknlsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405587/original/file-20210610-26-xknlsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Energy emissions from buildings, such as from gas cooktops, have largely escaped scrutiny.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A stark contrast</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/public_policy_community/workshops/rio20_towards_sustainable_development/S3P3_Saddler_Energy.pdf">energy sector</a> can be separated into three major types of energy use in Australia:</p>
<ul>
<li>electricity generation</li>
<li>transport and mobile equipment used in mining, farming, and construction</li>
<li>all other segments, mainly fossil fuel combustion to provide heat in industry and buildings. </li>
</ul>
<p>In 2018-19, energy sector emissions accounted for 72% of Australia’s <a href="https://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/">national total</a>. Transition from fossil fuels to zero-emissions sources is at the heart of any strategy to cut emissions deeply.</p>
<p>The transition is already happening in electricity generation, as wind and solar supplies increase and coal-fired power stations close or operate less.</p>
<p>But in stark contrast, elsewhere in the sector there is no evidence of a meaningful low-emissions transition or acceleration in energy efficiency improvement.</p>
<p>This matters greatly because in 2019, these other segments contributed 53% of total energy combustion emissions and 38% of national greenhouse gas emissions. Total energy sector emissions increased between 2005 (the reference year for Australia’s Paris target) and 2019. </p>
<p>As the below graphic shows, while the renewables transition often gets the credit for Australia’s emissions reductions, falls since 2005 are largely down to changes in land use and forestry. </p>
<hr>
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<hr>
<p>Let’s take a closer look at the areas where Australia could do far better in future.</p>
<h2>1. Transport and mobile equipment</h2>
<p>Transport includes road and rail transport, domestic aviation and coastal shipping. Mobile equipment includes machinery such as excavators and dump trucks used in mining, as well as tractors, bulldozers and other equipment used in farming and construction. Petroleum supplies almost 99% of the energy consumed by these machines.</p>
<p>Road transport is responsible for more than <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-data/australian-energy-statistics">two-thirds</a> of all the energy consumed by transport and mobile equipment. </p>
<p>What’s more, prior to COVID, energy use by transport and mobile equipment was steadily growing – <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-05/nggi-quarterly-update-december-2020.pdf">as were emissions</a>. The absence of fuel efficiency standards in Australia, and a trend towards larger cars, has contributed to the problem. </p>
<p>Electric vehicles offer great hope for cutting emissions from the transport sector. As Australia’s electricity grid continues to decarbonise, emissions associated with electric vehicles charged from the grid will keep falling.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="cars on freeway from rear" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405588/original/file-20210610-13-1wd2mtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405588/original/file-20210610-13-1wd2mtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405588/original/file-20210610-13-1wd2mtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405588/original/file-20210610-13-1wd2mtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405588/original/file-20210610-13-1wd2mtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405588/original/file-20210610-13-1wd2mtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405588/original/file-20210610-13-1wd2mtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electric vehicles would slash road transport emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Other energy emissions</h2>
<p>Emissions from all other parts of the energy system arise mainly from burning:</p>
<ul>
<li>gas to provide heat for buildings and manufacturing, and for the power needed to liquefy gas to make LNG</li>
<li>coal, for a limited range of heavy manufacturing activities, such as steel and cement production </li>
<li>petroleum products (mainly LPG) in much smaller quantities, where natural gas is unavailable or otherwise unsuitable.</li>
</ul>
<p>Emissions from these sources, as a share of national emissions, <a href="https://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/">rose</a> from 13% in 2005 to 19% in 2019.</p>
<p>These types of emissions can be reduced through electrification – that is, using low- or zero-carbon electricity in industry and buildings. This might include using induction cooktops, and electric heat pumps to heat buildings and water.</p>
<p>However the data offer no evidence of such a shift. Fossil fuel use in this segment has declined, but mainly due to less manufacturing activity rather than cleaner energy supply. </p>
<p>And in 2018 and 2019, the expanding LNG industry <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-05/nggi-quarterly-update-december-2020.pdf">drove further emissions</a> growth, offsetting the decline in use of gas and coal in manufacturing. </p>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/6392660/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6392660/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/6392660" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"> </a></div>
<h2>How to track progress</h2>
<p>Over the past decade or so, Australia’s emissions reduction policies – such as they are – have focused on an increasingly narrow range of emission sources and reduction opportunities, in particular electricity generation. </p>
<p>Only now are electric vehicles beginning to be taken seriously, while energy efficiency – a huge opportunity to cut emissions and costs – is typically <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-failed-miserably-on-energy-efficiency-and-government-figures-hide-the-truth-123176">ignored</a>. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/ccep-working-paper/18914/australian-energy-transition-indicators">paper</a> proposes a large set of new indicators, designed to show what’s happening (and not happening) across the energy sector. </p>
<p>The indicators fall into four groups: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>greenhouse gas emissions from energy use</p></li>
<li><p>primary fuel mix including for electricity generation</p></li>
<li><p>final energy consumption including energy use efficiency</p></li>
<li><p>the fuel/technology mix used to deliver energy services to consumers. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Our datasets excludes the effects of 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns. They’re based on data contained in established government publications: <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-data/australian-energy-statistics">The Australian Energy Statistics</a>, the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-updates">National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a> and the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/national-accounts/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product/latest-release">national accounts</a> and <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/latest-release">population estimates</a>. </p>
<p>By systematically tracking and analysing these indicators, and combining them with others, Australia’s energy transition can be monitored on an ongoing basis. This would complement the great level of detail already available for <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=1y&interval=1d">electricity generation</a>. It would also create better public understanding and focus policy attention on areas that need it. </p>
<p>In some countries, government agencies monitor the energy transition in great detail. In some cases, such as <a href="https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Artikel/Energy/monitoring-implementation-of-the-energy-reforms.html">Germany</a>, independent experts also conduct systematic and substantial analysis as part of an annual process.</p>
<h2>The road ahead</h2>
<p>Australia has begun the journey to a zero-emissions energy sector. But we must get a move-on in transport, industry and buildings. </p>
<p>The technical opportunities are there. What’s now needed is government regulation and policy to encourage investment in zero-emissions technologies for both supplying and using all forms of energy. </p>
<p>And once available, the technology should be deployed now and in coming years, not in the distant future.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/check-your-mirrors-3-things-rooftop-solar-can-teach-us-about-australias-electric-car-rollout-162085">Check your mirrors: 3 things rooftop solar can teach us about Australia's electric car rollout</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo leads externally funded research projects and has received Australian government funding. There are no conflicts of interest regarding this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Saddler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Renewables form an ever-greater share of the electricity mix. But elsewhere in the energy sector – in transport, industry and buildings – emissions reduction is very slow.Hugh Saddler, Honorary Associate Professor, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Australian National UniversityFrank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate and Energy Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1515272021-01-18T21:12:07Z2021-01-18T21:12:07ZNew research suggests 1.5C climate target will be out of reach without greener COVID-19 recovery plans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379088/original/file-20210115-21-6vh4hj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C91%2C3536%2C2234&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Global fossil fuel emissions dropped by about seven per cent in 2020 compared with 2019. But a rebound is likely to occur when lockdowns ease up unless COVID-19 recovery packages focus on 'green recovery.'</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Michael Probst)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The amount of carbon dioxide that we can still emit while limiting global warming to a given target is called the “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3">remaining carbon budget</a>,” and it has become a powerful tool to inform climate policy goals and track progress towards net-zero emissions targets. </p>
<p>This carbon budget is like a fixed financial budget: there is a cap on total allowable expenses over time, and excess spending in the near term requires deceased spending in the future. Similarly, the remaining carbon budget is a fixed total quantity of future emissions that is small enough to limit global temperature increases before they exceed our climate targets.</p>
<p>Scientists’ estimates of the remaining carbon budget <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1368-z">vary widely</a>. Studies often use different approaches or even definitions of what the carbon budget represents. This can involve different treatment of how greenhouse gases other than CO2 contribute to climate change, or the incomplete representation of some processes, such as the role of aerosols in climate change. </p>
<p>The large range of estimates can be used either to write off ambitious climate targets or argue that the transition to a low-carbon economy can proceed gradually over several decades. Neither extreme reflects the actual uncertainty especially well.</p>
<p>We developed a <a href="http://nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00064-9">a new way</a> to generate a better estimate of the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5C limit of the Paris Agreement that integrates all major sources of uncertainty. Our results suggest that even if the growing list of countries committing to 2050 net-zero emissions targets reached their goals, we would still deplete the 1.5C remaining carbon budget more than a decade too soon.</p>
<p>This is a stark reminder of how quickly we are running out of time to achieve the most ambitious temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. </p>
<h2>How much budget is left?</h2>
<p>Our best estimate of the 1.5C remaining carbon budget is 440 billion tonnes of CO2 from 2020 onward. If human activities around the globe continue to produce CO2 at current rates, we will deplete the remaining carbon budget in a little more than 10 years. </p>
<p>If we slow our rate of emissions, the remaining budget will last longer. To avoid exceeding the remaining carbon budget, we need to stop emitting CO2 altogether. A budget of 440 billion tonnes from 2020 means that global CO2 emissions need to decrease to net-zero by about 2040.</p>
<p>However, even this would give us only a 50 per cent chance of not exceeding 1.5C. For a 67 per cent chance, total CO2 emissions must not exceed 230 billion tonnes. This is about five years of current emissions, or reaching net-zero emissions by 2030. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=192&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=192&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=192&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=241&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=241&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379324/original/file-20210118-23-3rfibg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=241&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Distribution of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C (left panel) showing the median estimate of 440 Gt CO2 from 2020 onwards, with a 33rd-67th percentile range of 230 to 670 Gt CO2. This range includes all major geophysical uncertainties, but is also sensitive to other uncertainties that relate to human decisions and mitigation actions. In particular, human decisions regarding future emissions of other greenhouse gases and aerosols have the potential to shift the carbon budget distribution by 170 Gt CO2 in either direction (right panel).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthews, Tokarska et al (2020) Communications Earth and Environment</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Global decarbonization within 10 to 20 years is obviously a daunting challenge. But is it an impossible one? </p>
<p>The past year saw <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/3269/2020/">global CO2 emissions drop by seven per cent</a> relative to 2019. Continued decrease at this rate would cause global emissions to reach net-zero by about 2035, giving us better than even odds of limiting global warming to 1.5C. </p>
<p>This will not occur without a global effort to change the trajectory of future emissions. The 2020 emissions drop was a side-effect of efforts to control COVID-19. If economic recovery efforts were targeted to try to bring emissions down further <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc9697">this could keep the 1.5C target within reach</a>.</p>
<h2>Changing the course of future emissions</h2>
<p>At the peak of global lockdowns in April 2020, daily CO2 emissions decreased <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x">by almost 20 per cent</a> relative to the same period in 2019. These insights can inform how COVID-19 recovery investments could be used to drive emissions further downward. </p>
<p>The largest relative decreases in emissions came from reductions in road transport, such as commuting by car, and air travel. Although we are all suffering from the loss of in-person interactions, we have also learned a lot about how to convene meetings, presentations and collaborations online. While individual mobility will rebound as lockdowns ease, our crash course in remote working and learning means that we may not need to return to pre-COVID-19 travel levels. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graphic showing sharp decreases in carbon dioxide emissions from industry, surface transport and aviation between March and April 2020." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379082/original/file-20210115-17-1yob147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global carbon dioxide emissions dropped dramatically during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic when many borders closed and people stayed at home, largely due to decreased surface transportation and air travel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Le Quéré et al. Nature Climate Change, 2020/Global Carbon Project)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Emissions from industry and power generation did not decrease as much, in relative terms. This points to the need for systemic changes in technological infrastructure to unlock the potential for lower-carbon economic activity. </p>
<p>Similar technological advances are also needed to support low-carbon travel in circumstances where online platforms are not up to the task. The combination of sustained individual behavioural change, with a rapid expansion of low-carbon infrastructure, has the potential to have a substantial effect on the trajectory of future CO2 emissions. </p>
<h2>Staying within the remaining carbon budget</h2>
<p>An increasing number of countries, cities and companies are <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/newclimate-institute-report-analyzes-nuances-of-net-zero-targets/">committing to net-zero emissions targets</a>, where CO2 emissions are decreased to zero or to a level that is matched by the intentional removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. These targets are essential to any effort to stay within the remaining carbon budget. </p>
<p>Countries that have adopted or promised net-zero emissions targets include the European Union, United Kingdom, China, Canada and the United States under the new Biden administration. Currently, most of these targets are set for 2050 (or 2060 in the case of China). </p>
<p>According to our <a href="http://nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00064-9">estimate of the remaining carbon budget</a>, these commitments are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5C. They may, however, limit warming to the higher temperature goal of the Paris Agreement: well below 2C. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Stack and buildings for a coal power plant on a waterfront" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379087/original/file-20210115-17-pusjtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal power plants, such as this new Uniper Datteln 4 in Datteln, Germany, produce aerosols in addition to carbon dioxide, which have a cooling effect on climate. As their emissions decline, the remaining carbon budget decreases.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Martin Meissner)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The climate effects of other greenhouse gases, as well as of aerosols emitted from fossil fuel use, remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of the remaining carbon budget. Our effectiveness in mitigating these other emissions could expand or contract the size of the remaining carbon budget. </p>
<p>This year will be key in our efforts to decrease emissions. COVID-19 has opened a window of opportunity to meet ambitious climate targets that might otherwise have been out of reach. </p>
<p>Governments around the world are spending unprecedented amounts to support and reinvigorate national economies. We must actively pursue this opportunity for a <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/09/coronavirus-green-economic-recovery">green recovery</a> and <a href="http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/themes/green-recovery">avoid investing in infrastructure and industries that will lock in future CO2 emissions</a>. Yet the COVID-19 stimulus packages announced so far are “missing the opportunity,” according to the <a href="https://www.unep.org/events/publication-launch/launch-2020-adaptation-gap-report">UN Environment Program’s adaptation report released last week</a>.</p>
<p>There are no emergency lockdown measures that will slow the rate of climate warming. Instead we need targeted, substantial and sustained effort and investments to continue to decrease and eventually eliminate global CO2 emissions. This window is open now, and we must not miss the opportunity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151527/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>H. Damon Matthews receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kasia Tokarska receives funding from the EU Horizon 2020 CONSTRAIN project. She is affiliated with ETH Zurich and Climate Change AI. </span></em></p>Several countries have made pledges to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to zero by mid-century. But new research finds the remaining carbon budget will be depleted before we get there.H. Damon Matthews, Professor and Concordia University Research Chair in Climate Science and Sustainability, Concordia UniversityKasia Tokarska, Postdoctoral research fellow, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ZurichLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1505442020-11-30T03:45:15Z2020-11-30T03:45:15ZWe modelled how a COVID vaccine roll-out would work. Here’s what we found<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371408/original/file-20201125-25-i4au1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C10%2C1000%2C652&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/truck-on-fast-express-road-motion-320983172">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>How well we distribute and administer a COVID-19 vaccine will have massive health, social and economic ramifications. So attention is turning to vaccine supply chains and logistics.</p>
<p>Designing how best to vaccinate billions of people worldwide is complex. This is particularly so for large countries, such as Australia, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/creating-a-covid-19-vaccine-is-only-the-first-step-itll-take-years-to-manufacture-and-distribute-144352">distributing vaccine</a> to rural and remote areas is needed.</p>
<p>Despite numerous past pandemics and epidemics, very few studies globally have tackled the problem of designing and building an efficient vaccine distribution network. <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10729-012-9199-6.pdf">Existing</a> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554520306189">studies</a> have also not fully considered all factors affecting vaccine distribution.</p>
<p>So our team designed a mathematical model to test different scenarios for COVID-19 vaccine distribution, which we have submitted for publication.</p>
<h2>What we took into account</h2>
<p>Our model looked at different ways to distribute COVID vaccine to 6.9 million Victorians, based on the number of residents <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-projections-australia/latest-release">predicted in 2021</a>.</p>
<p>We modelled this using distribution via the <a href="https://discover.data.vic.gov.au/dataset/hospital-locations-spatial">state’s 325 medical centres</a>, which can be everything from big city hospitals to small medical centres in regional areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371419/original/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of medical centres in Victoria" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371419/original/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371419/original/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371419/original/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371419/original/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371419/original/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371419/original/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371419/original/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">This map shows the location and capacity of the 325 medical centres in Victoria, using data from Victoria’s health department.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We assumed most vaccine distribution would be by road and enough <a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-coronavirus-vaccines-at-subzero-temperatures-during-distribution-will-be-hard-but-likely-key-to-ending-pandemic-146071">refrigerated vehicles</a> would be available.</p>
<p>We also factored into our model that certain sections of the community are at increased risk of exposure (for instance, city dwellers) and others are more susceptible to infection (for instance, aged-care residents and health-care workers). These people are not uniformly distributed around the state, affecting vaccine distribution logistics.</p>
<p>We then tested different scenarios to see how long vaccination would take.</p>
<p>Our research shows we need three key factors for success.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scientific-modelling-is-steering-our-response-to-coronavirus-but-what-is-scientific-modelling-135938">Scientific modelling is steering our response to coronavirus. But what is scientific modelling?</a>
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<h2>1. Medical centres need to be big enough</h2>
<p>We calculated that if the capacity of the 325 medical centres is large enough, and if enough vaccine is available, the entire population of Victoria can be vaccinated within 60 days.</p>
<p>By capacity we mean the maximum number of vaccine doses each medical centre can administer. And this capacity depends on a range of factors including centres’ physical size, and having enough staff to administer vaccines.</p>
<p>This time frame or “target horizon” is the total number of days to vaccinate the population of Victoria. Although we have calculated this is possible within 60 days, the state or federal government will actually set this target.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/creating-a-covid-19-vaccine-is-only-the-first-step-itll-take-years-to-manufacture-and-distribute-144352">Creating a COVID-19 vaccine is only the first step. It'll take years to manufacture and distribute</a>
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<p>To vaccinate all Victorians in 60 days, we calculated we would need a minimum of roughly 9,500 vaccine packs with 12 vaccines per pack, every day. This assumes one shot per person and adequate vaccines are available. A limited supply or a disruption to supplies might increase the administration period beyond 60 days.</p>
<p>If medical centres run at reduced capacity or existing capacity is not enough, this also increases the time taken to vaccinate. Conversely, if the aim is to vaccinate Victorians in under 60 days, our model suggests we need to boost our capacity to vaccinate.</p>
<p>This could be by using mobile vaccination units or hiring extra staff.</p>
<h2>2. Vaccines need to be shipped between medical centres</h2>
<p>We also show the importance of transporting vaccines between medical centres, known as transhipment. This allows medical centres short on vaccine to obtain doses from the nearest medical centres with extra supply.</p>
<p>Transhipment is also crucial when it comes to vaccinating the most vulnerable people. That’s because we can transfer vaccines from medical centres serving less-vulnerable populations to those with more residents in higher priority groups. Transhipment also allows us to transfer vaccines from areas with less exposure to areas of higher exposure. And it allows vaccines to reach remote areas.</p>
<p>However, transhipment places extra burden on road transport networks.</p>
<h2>3. Vaccine packs need to be the right size</h2>
<p>We also show it is important to get the vaccine pack size right. This seemingly minor detail had a significant effect on the overall period of vaccine administration.</p>
<p>We considered pack sizes that contain 5, 12, 20, 30 and 50 vaccines. Larger pack size significantly increases the need for transhipment between medical centres. That’s because larger packs would need to be broken up into smaller portions, then distributed to multiple medical centres.</p>
<p>We suggest governmental agencies carefully evaluate vaccine pack size when contracting and negotiating with vaccine manufacturers.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-coronavirus-vaccines-at-subzero-temperatures-during-distribution-will-be-hard-but-likely-key-to-ending-pandemic-146071">Keeping coronavirus vaccines at subzero temperatures during distribution will be hard, but likely key to ending pandemic</a>
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<h2>This is relevant to all Australia</h2>
<p>While we used Victoria as a case study, we can apply our model to other states and territories. </p>
<p>In particular, the importance of pack size, transhipment between medical centres, and considering extra capacity to vaccinate in a shorter amount of time will apply in every context. </p>
<p>Certainly, the results for other states and territories will depend on their number of available medical centres, population size and population distribution.</p>
<p>Our model helps decision makers strike a balance between the cost of building extra capacity to try to achieve population vaccination in a given time scale or accepting a less costly approach that takes more time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150544/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’re on the road again. Getting enough COVID-19 vaccine to where it’s needed in a given time frame is the next logistical hurdle.Olga Kokshagina, Researcher - Innovation & Entrepreneurship, RMIT UniversityBabak Abbasi, Professor, Head of Department, Information Systems, RMIT UniversityMasih Fadaki, Lecturer, Supply Chain Management, RMIT UniversityNaima Saeed, Associate Professor of Supply Chain Management, University of AgderPrem Chhetri, Professor, Director, Global Supply Chain and Logistics Research Priority Area, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1506442020-11-25T19:04:31Z2020-11-25T19:04:31ZThink taxing electric vehicle use is a backward step? Here’s why it’s an important policy advance<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-11/sa-to-introduce-electric-vehicle-user-charge/12869302">South Australian</a> and <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/victoria-to-tax-electric-and-plug-in-hybrid-vehicles-from-2021-124619.html?trackLink=SMH1">Victorian</a> governments have announced, and <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/motoring-news/electric-car-tax-spreads-to-new-states/news-story/172ac67ccd8974566e3c65dc26c07048">New South Wales</a> is considering, road user charges on electric vehicles. This policy has drawn scorn from <a href="https://nb.tai.org.au/no_ev_tax?recruiter_id=194711">environmental advocates</a> and <a href="https://thedriven.io/2020/11/21/shameful-victoria-follows-south-australia-and-imposes-electric-car-road-tax/">motor vehicle lobbyists</a> who fear it will slow the uptake of less-polluting vehicles. But, from a longer-term transport policy perspective, a distance-based road user charge on electric vehicles is an important step forward.</p>
<p>Superficially, a charge on electric vehicle use seems misguided. Road sector emissions are the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/107/8/3382">worst contributors to climate change</a>. Electric vehicles powered by clean energy offer the promise of near-zero emissions. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-is-letting-australia-down-in-the-race-to-cut-emissions-131905">Transport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions</a>
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<p>As electric vehicle and renewable energy costs decline we can expect a shift to <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/Inputs-Assumptions-Methodologies/2020/CSIRO-DER-Forecast-Report">full electrification of urban vehicles over the next 30 years</a>. Surely accelerating this transition is an urgent climate task?</p>
<p>The downside lies not in the carbon benefits of these vehicles, but in their use as private passenger transport in congested urban areas and <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">the costs</a> this use imposes on cities. As renewable energy becomes cheaper, the marginal cost of every kilometre driven is likely to decline. As driving becomes cheaper, more of it is likely to occur.</p>
<p>More driving means more congestion. Inevitably, that increases demand for increasingly expensive road projects, such as Sydney’s WestConnex, or Melbourne’s Westgate Tunnel and North East Link. It certainly will run against the recognition in urban plans such as <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/">Plan Melbourne</a> that we must shift to alternative transport modes.</p>
<p>If we don’t have a pricing regime that accounts for the cost of car use in cities, the transition to electric vehicles is likely to work against the wider goals of urban and transport policy. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">Cars rule as coronavirus shakes up travel trends in our cities</a>
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<h2>How would distance-based charging work?</h2>
<p>Many urban transport policy advocates have called for distance-based road-user charging to be imposed on all vehicles in cities. This sounds great in theory, but in practice is difficult for technical and political reasons of privacy and surveillance. Such concerns will diminish over time as cars increasingly incorporate automated <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telematics">telematics</a> that necessarily track their movement.</p>
<p>Distance-based road-user charging efficiently matches road use to its costs – of infrastructure, congestion, noise, pollution and deaths. It improves on fuel excise, which drivers can nearly completely evade by using a highly efficient vehicle. It also goes beyond tolling to fund major roads, which typically apply only to specific links.</p>
<p>Second, road-user charging can be varied in response to demand that exceeds road capacities. Higher rates can be applied at peak times to ensure free-flowing traffic and shift travel to other times and modes. Various taxation reviews, including the 2009 <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/afts_final_report_part_2_vol_2_consolidated.pdf">Henry Taxation Review</a> and <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/productivity-review/report/productivity-review-supporting9.pdf">Productivity Commission</a> reports, have promoted such policies.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/road-user-charging-belongs-on-the-political-agenda-as-the-best-answer-for-congestion-management-65027">Road user charging belongs on the political agenda as the best answer for congestion management</a>
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<h2>Exactly how big would the disincentive be?</h2>
<p>Would imposing such charges on electric vehicles retard their uptake? </p>
<p>Based on our work with <a href="https://www-sciencedirect-com.ezproxy.lib.rmit.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0966692320309443?utm_campaign=elsOnboarding_Published&utm_medium=email&utm_dgroup=STMJ_AUTH_SERV_PUBLISHED&utm_acid=79567271&SIS_ID=&dgcid=elsOnboarding_Published&CMX_ID=&utm_in=DM82577&utm_source=AC_">ABS Census journey-to-work data</a>, in Melbourne the average daily round-trip commuting distance by car is about 25 kilometres. The proposed Victorian charge is 2.5 cents per kilometre. Thus, in Melbourne the average daily commuter’s road user charge is likely to be 63 cents – $3.13 for a typical five-day working week. Over a 48-week working year that totals A$150, hardly a large sum for most people.</p>
<p>By comparison, a commuter in a conventional vehicle with the average current fuel efficiency of 10.9 L/100km will use about 2.73 litres of fuel on which they pay 42.3 cents per litre in fuel excise. That’s about $1.15 a day, or $5.75 a week. </p>
<p>The average tax saving for electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles will be about 2.1 cents per kilometre. Electric vehicle drivers will be taxed about 53 cents a day, or $2.64 a week, less for their car work travel. They’ll be about $126 a year better off.</p>
<p>Commuting trips make up about 25% of car use, so electric car users’ overall savings are likely to be even greater. </p>
<p>It is difficult to see how such savings on excise tax are a <em>disincentive</em> to electric vehicle uptake. Fears of a “<a href="https://medium.com/@TheAustraliaInstitute/11-reasons-why-a-great-big-new-tax-on-electric-vehicles-is-a-bad-idea-6bf89c99e688">great big new tax</a>”, as the Australia Institute puts it, seem unfounded, as are concerns that road-user charges would “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2020/nov/22/tax-on-electric-vehicles-in-south-australia-and-victoria-would-slam-brakes-on-sales">slam the brakes on sales</a>”.</p>
<p>Let’s be clear, the big barrier is the <em>upfront cost</em> of electric vehicles, about <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/transport/projects/electricvehicles/about/compare">$10,000 more</a> than their conventional equivalents. Advocates for electric vehicles should focus on that difference, and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/22/well-be-left-behind-australias-electric-car-inertia-is-getting-it-nowhere">failures in Australian government policy</a>, not state road-user charges. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-tripled-last-year-heres-what-we-can-do-to-keep-them-growing-131372">Electric car sales tripled last year. Here's what we can do to keep them growing</a>
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<h2>Why taxing actual road use matters</h2>
<p>It needs to be recognised that, with lower marginal costs, electric vehicles are likely to be used more than conventional cars. That would increase pressure on urban road capacity. So while the new road-user charge of 2.5 cents per kilometre is flat across the time of day or the route driven, this will likely need to change.</p>
<p>Distance-based road-user charges have been politically controversial. Imposing a tiny charge on a <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-tripled-last-year-heres-what-we-can-do-to-keep-them-growing-131372">minority vehicle type</a> is an expedient way of introducing a needed reform. Fewer than <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/motor-vehicle-census-australia/latest-release">1.8%</a> of vehicles in Australia are currently electric or hybrid. But as all cars become electric, distance-based road charges will become an increasingly powerful policy tool. </p>
<p>Thanks to advancing telematics, transport planners will eventually be able to impose variable road-user charging by time of day and route, similar to ride-hailing companies’ “surge” pricing. We could then apply novel approaches such as a cap-and-trade system. A city could allocate its motorists an annual kilometres quota, which is then traded to create a market for excess urban road use. </p>
<p>The private car could also be integrated into <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">mobility-as-a-service</a> models. </p>
<p>Road-user charges could be regressive for people with few alternatives to the car. But telematic tracking could allow for lower charges for less affluent households in dispersed outer suburbs with few other options.</p>
<p>Beyond fuel, private cars have high environmental costs in <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/green-guide/buying-guides/car/environmental-impact/">steel, plastic, aluminium, glass and rubber use</a>. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-elephant-in-the-planning-scheme-how-cities-still-work-around-the-dominance-of-parking-space-87098">about one-third of our increasingly valuable urban space</a> is given over to cars in the form of roads and parking. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/freeing-up-the-huge-areas-set-aside-for-parking-can-transform-our-cities-85331">Freeing up the huge areas set aside for parking can transform our cities</a>
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<p>To reduce this demand on resources and space, car use could be priced to shift travel to, and fund, more sustainable and city-friendly modes such as public transport, walking and cycling. We could even price the car out of cities completely. The most environmentally sustainable car, after all, is no car at all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University receives funding from AHURI and the Department of Environment to support Jago Dodson's research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University receives funding from AHURI and the Department of Environment to support Terry Li's research.</span></em></p>Electric vehicles would lower emissions, but if their lower running costs lead to increased car use that creates a whole lot of other costs for our cities.Jago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityTiebei (Terry) Li, Research Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1479082020-10-14T19:10:18Z2020-10-14T19:10:18ZRobot take the wheel: Waymo has launched a self-driving taxi service<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363336/original/file-20201014-21-1k84sci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C1597%2C1056&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Waymo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The age of the driverless taxi has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/08/waymo-driverless-rides/">arrived</a> – at least in parts of Phoenix, Arizona. Self-driving car company Waymo, owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet, <a href="https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-driverless.html">announced</a> its autonomous vehicles are now available to the general public (or at least paying customers).</p>
<p>The service is only available in a limited area for now, both because regulations in Arizona are relatively permissive and because the cars need a detailed three-dimensional map to tell them all about the road environment.</p>
<p>Until earlier this year, the self-driving vehicles were under testing and were used in 5-10% of Waymo’s rides. The service has been shut because of the pandemic, but is now back and Waymo is aiming to increase availability.</p>
<h2>Are the cars really ‘self-driving’?</h2>
<p><a href="https://waymo.com/waymo-one/">Waymo One</a> currently requires a human driver to be present to supervise the self-driving care and override it when necessary, but the new announcement means fully autonomous, unsupervised vehicles. If successful, passengers will have entirely free time in the back seat.</p>
<p>Safety is still a concern though. Waymo claim trials in excess of <a href="https://fortune.com/2020/01/07/googles-waymo-reaches-20-million-miles-of-autonomous-driving/">20 million miles</a> of autonomous driving as of January 2020. While this sounds reassuring, with current <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/5/17/18564501/self-driving-car-morals-safety-tesla-waymo">US death rates at 1 per 100 million miles</a> this is woefully small to demonstrate safety on par with human drivers.</p>
<p>However, some research <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2150.html">suggests</a> deploying “good enough” self-driving cars will save lives by getting rid of human errors – and that waiting for the technology to become near-perfect before deploying it would be a mistake.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/autonomous-cars-five-reasons-they-still-arent-on-our-roads-143316">Autonomous cars: five reasons they still aren't on our roads</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Waymo’s plan</h2>
<p>Much of Waymo’s success is down to rigorous simulation and training. The company has its roots in Google’s self-driving car project, which began in 2009. </p>
<p>Unlike some other companies working on autonomous vehicles, such as Tesla and Volvo, Waymo is not trying to make a vehicle it can sell to consumers. At present, Waymo is only focused on offering a taxi service, though <a href="https://www.ibtimes.com/self-driving-car-testing-waymo-avis-budget-group-partner-arizona-fleet-2557555">Avis Budget Group</a> will manage the physical fleet of vehicles.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1285802057933287424"}"></div></p>
<p>This may be a smart move. From a consumer psychology perspective, buying a Tesla or any other branded autonomous vehicle is <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/032415/why-are-tesla-cars-so-expensive.asp">expensive</a>, but getting a driverless taxi will feel just as futuristic at a much lower cost. </p>
<h2>The road ahead for autonomous vehicles</h2>
<p>Even if Waymo’s technology proves safe and effective in practice, commercial success will depend on whether consumers adopt it. We still see customers in banks who <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB863731049116514500">prefer to go to a teller</a> instead of making a transaction via a kiosk or ATM, and computer users who are reluctant to <a href="https://theconversation.com/airports-atms-hospitals-microsoft-windows-xp-leak-would-be-less-of-an-issue-if-so-many-didnt-use-it-147018">upgrade systems and services</a> to newer versions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/airports-atms-hospitals-microsoft-windows-xp-leak-would-be-less-of-an-issue-if-so-many-didnt-use-it-147018">Airports, ATMs, hospitals: Microsoft Windows XP leak would be less of an issue, if so many didn't use it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There are still drivers resistant to the usage of (any) electronics in cars, so, for some, robot-driven cars will be a hard sell. What’s more, self-driving cars still struggle to manage everyday unexpected obstacles, such as potholes or broken traffic lights. Weather can also take a toll by affecting sensors.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30857661/autonomous-car-self-driving-research-expensive/">Billions of dollars</a> have been spent on autonomous car research, but they are far from perfect. High-profile <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/kzxq3y/self-driving-uber-killed-a-pedestrian-as-human-safety-driver-watched">deaths</a>) involving autonomous vehicles have also taken some of the shine off the technology.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1124052330272444416"}"></div></p>
<h2>So, are we ready to embrace the technology and service?</h2>
<p>Waymo provided the service before the pandemic; proved the technology works; and, showed there is public demand for such a service. They will now be aiming to convince stakeholders such as governments and business partners that now is the time for autonomous vehicles. </p>
<p>While seeking to address technical reliability issues – such as the requirement for a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45048264">5G mobile network</a> – and customer acceptance of their product, Waymo will be hoping they won’t experience any catastrophic accidents as some of their competitors have.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/legal-lessons-for-australia-from-ubers-self-driving-car-fatality-93649">Legal lessons for Australia from Uber’s self-driving car fatality</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147908/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The age of autonomous vehicles is edging closer to reality with the launch of a driverless taxi service in the USA.James Jin Kang, Lecturer, Computing and Security, Edith Cowan UniversityMohiuddin Ahmed, Lecturer of Computing & Security, Edith Cowan UniversityPaul Haskell-Dowland, Associate Dean (Computing and Security), Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1384152020-05-25T20:08:32Z2020-05-25T20:08:32ZCoronavirus recovery: public transport is key to avoid repeating old and unsustainable mistakes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335473/original/file-20200516-138624-gua1mo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2174%2C0%2C5793%2C3440&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hazmat-team-protective-suits-decontaminating-public-1678610077">Shuuterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The coronavirus pandemic has affected our cities in profound ways. People adapted by <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/western-australia/we-proved-we-can-work-from-home-why-do-we-need-to-go-back-to-the-office-20200515-p54ti0.html">teleworking</a>, shopping locally and <a href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility">making only necessary trips</a>. One of the many challenges of recovery will be to build on the momentum of the shift to more sustainable practices – and transport will be a particular challenge. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reductions in trips from January to May, measured by change in trip routing requests.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility">Apple Maps COVID-19 Mobility Trends</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-is-letting-australia-down-in-the-race-to-cut-emissions-131905">Transport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While restrictions are being eased, many measures in place today, including physical distancing and limits on group numbers, will remain for some time. As people try to avoid crowded spaces, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-is-it-safe-to-take-public-transport/12084418">public transport patronage</a> will suffer. Thousands of journeys a day will need to be completed by other means. </p>
<p>If people <a href="https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/05/14/new-yorkers-opt-for-cars-over-public-transport-in-coronavirus-times-">switch from public transport to cars</a>, road congestion will be even worse than before, emissions will soar, air quality will be poor and <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-14/traffic-deaths-speeding-los-angeles-coronavirus-pandemic-vision-zero">road safety will suffer</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The capacity of mixed vehicle traffic is much lower than most people realise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/integrating-urban-public-transport-systems-cycling-roundtable-summary_0.pdf">International Transport Forum, OECD. Data from Botma and Papandrecht 1991 and GIZ calculations 2009; CAV = connected and automated vehicles, BRT = bus rapid transit. Source: Synergine for Auckland Transport 2015, adapted from ADB and GIZ 2011; Shladover, Su and Lu 2012</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Re-imagining our cities</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-let-coronavirus-kill-our-cities-heres-how-we-can-save-urban-life-137063">Cities are repurposing streets</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/physical-distancing-is-here-for-a-while-over-100-experts-call-for-more-safe-walking-and-cycling-space-137374">meet higher demands</a> for <a href="http://www.pedestrian.melbourne.vic.gov.au/">walking</a> and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/car-parks-out-footpaths-and-cycling-lanes-in-as-city-prepares-for-post-covid-commuters-20200507-p54qrp.html">cycling</a>. </p>
<p>But not everyone can walk or ride a scooter or bike to their destination. Public transport must remain at the heart of urban mobility. </p>
<p>We will have to rethink public transport design to enable physical distancing, even though it <a href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/respacing-cities-resilience-covid-19.pdf">reduces capacities</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Impact of physical distancing on public transport capacity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/respacing-cities-resilience-covid-19.pdf">International Transport Forum, OECD</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/19/public-transport-workers-must-be-protected-from-covid-19-as-passengers-return-union-warns">Public transport drivers</a> need protection. Some responses such as boarding from back doors and sanitising rolling stock are needed but <a href="https://www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-52645366">don’t reduce crowding</a>. Crowding at platforms, bus and tram stops also has to be avoided. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-limit-coronavirus-risks-on-public-transport-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-efforts-overseas-133764">To limit coronavirus risks on public transport, here's what we can learn from efforts overseas</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Crowding on public transport puts lives at risk. A <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/B7DqC6X1LXuXlKX5IxBqAZ?domain=linkedin.com">recent study</a> that looked at smartcard data for the Metro in Washington DC showed that, with the same passenger demand as before the pandemic, only three initially infected passengers will lead to 55% of the passenger population being infected within 20 days. This would have alarming consequences. </p>
<p>More measures are needed. There are things we need to stop doing or start doing, and others that need to happen sooner. </p>
<p>Increasing capacities by running more services, where possible, will help. Staggering work hours will reduce peak demand. Transport demand management must also aim to <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-our-cities-can-cut-transport-emissions-in-a-hurry-avoid-shift-share-and-improve-106076">reduce overall need for travel</a> by having people continue to <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-more-of-us-work-from-home-after-coronavirus-well-need-to-rethink-city-planning-136261">work from home</a> if they can.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-more-of-us-work-from-home-after-coronavirus-well-need-to-rethink-city-planning-136261">If more of us work from home after coronavirus we'll need to rethink city planning</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Managing passenger flow and decreasing waiting times will also help avoid crowding. Passenger-counting technologies can be used to monitor passenger load restrictions, control flow and stagger ridership. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l8X-81tTK2Y?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Passenger-counting technologies can be used to monitor and manage flows.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We need to start trying new solutions using smart technologies. Passengers could use <a href="https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/5404102/new-app-showing-empty-train-seats-not-available-on-south-coast-line/">apps</a> that let them find out <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-6368309/LNER-installs-seat-sensors-train-help-passengers-avoid-standing.html">how crowded a service is</a> before boarding, or to book a seat in advance. </p>
<p>Other solutions to trial include <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinehoward/2020/05/16/thermal-imaging-is-hot-photographs-of-a-fevered-time/?ss=education#2e7346495d69">thermal imaging</a> at train stations and bus depots to identify passengers with fever. There will be many technical and deployment challenges, but trials can identify issues and ease the transition.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One solution for transport hubs is thermal imaging technology that detects passengers who have a fever.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/recording-thermal-camera-people-city-railway-530560618">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We need to accelerate digitalisation and automation of public transport. This includes solutions for contactless operations, automated train doors and passenger safety across the whole journey. </p>
<p>Public transport also has to be expanded and diversified to be effective in dense areas and deliver social value to residents. In some areas, it may function as a <a href="https://www.transitsystems.com.au/demand-responsive-transport-systems">demand-responsive service</a> and be <a href="https://infrastructuremagazine.com.au/2019/05/06/sa-to-trial-demand-responsive-transport/">more agile</a> in its ability to transport people safely and quickly. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/1-million-rides-and-counting-on-demand-services-bring-public-transport-to-the-suburbs-132355">1 million rides and counting: on-demand services bring public transport to the suburbs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Improving resilience</h2>
<p>The lessons we have learnt about adapting how we live and work should guide recovery efforts. The recovery must improve the resilience of public transport. </p>
<p>Infrastructure investments, which are crucial for rebuilding the economy, must target projects that protect against future threats. Public transport will need <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/coronavirus-changing-the-way-we-move-around-our-cities-forever/12158612">reliable financial investment</a> to provide quality of service and revive passenger confidence.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-public-transport-to-keep-running-operators-must-find-ways-to-outlast-coronavirus-134224">For public transport to keep running, operators must find ways to outlast coronavirus</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The pandemic has shown how fragile urban systems like public transport are in the face of acute stresses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/city-melbourne-vicaustraliamay-25th-2018-crowds-1099621061">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Importantly, the harm this pandemic is causing has not been equitable. The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/24/coronavirus-could-hit-worlds-most-vulnerable-people-hardest/">most vulnerable and the most disadvantaged</a> have been hit hardest by both its health and economic impacts. </p>
<p>While many people are able to work from home, staying at home remains a luxury many others cannot afford. People who need to return to work must be able to rely on safe public transport. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-most-affected-on-public-transport-in-the-time-of-coronavirus-133429">Who's most affected on public transport in the time of coronavirus?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Building on momentum</h2>
<p>By the time the lockdown is over, many of our old habits will have changed. The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f43b8212-950a-11ea-af4b-499244625ac4">notion</a> that we need to leave home to work every day has been challenged. The new habits emerging today, if sustained, could help us solve tricky problems like traffic congestion and accessibility, which have challenged our cities for a long time. </p>
<p>If there’s one principle that should underpin recovery efforts, it should be to make choices today that in future we’d want us to have made. If driving becomes an established new habit, congestion will spike and persist, as will greenhouse gas emissions. Faced with these kinds of challenges, rash “business as usual” measures and behaviours will not protect us from this emergency or future crises. </p>
<p>Cities that seize this moment and boost investment in social infrastructure will enter the post-coronavirus world stronger, more equitable and more resilient. </p>
<p>Let us commit to shaping a recovery that rebuilds lives and promotes equality and sustainability. By building on sustainable practices and a momentum of behavioural change, we can avoid repeating the unsustainable mistakes of the past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Transport for New South Wales, and Scope 3 Pty Ltd.</span></em></p>Some new habits we’ve seen emerging during the pandemic could help us solve tricky problems like traffic congestion, which have challenged our cities for a long time.Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1368362020-05-18T20:03:09Z2020-05-18T20:03:09ZIs another huge and costly road project really Sydney’s best option right now?<p>The New South Wales government has focused on delivering more motorways and rail links for Sydney, along with main roads in regional NSW, since the Coalition won office in 2011. The biggest of these, WestConnex, is still being built. Plans for yet another major motorway, the <a href="https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/projects/western-harbour-tunnel-beaches-link/index.html">Western Harbour Tunnel and Beaches Link</a>, are well advanced. </p>
<p>A hefty environmental impact statement (EIS), but incredibly no business case for a project costing about <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/big-balance-sheets-tested-for-nsw-s-next-15b-roads-project-20190717-p527xx">A$15 billion</a>, was recently put on public exhibition. When submissions closed at the end of March, the vast majority of <a href="https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/project/10451">1,455 submissions</a> from public agencies, individuals and organisations were objections to the Western Harbour Tunnel project.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The NSW government has promoted the Western Harbour Tunnel since announcing it in 2014, but hasn’t convinced the many objectors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-G8fYlAP-M4">YouTube/NSW government</a></span>
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<p>The proposal follows three stages of WestConnex and the F6 Extension south of Sydney. Thousands of objections in the planning process did not stop the government going ahead with each stage. </p>
<p>This led to a state parliamentary <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/inquiries/2497/Final%20report%20-%20Impact%20of%20the%20WestConnex%20Project%20-%20FINAL%20-%2014%20December%202018.pdf">inquiry</a> in 2018. Its first finding was: “That the WestConnex project is, notwithstanding issues of implementation raised in this report, a vital and long-overdue addition to the road infrastructure of New South Wales.” </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/health-impacts-and-murky-decision-making-feed-public-distrust-of-projects-like-westconnex-106996">Health impacts and murky decision-making feed public distrust of projects like WestConnex</a>
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<p>However, the committee also found “the NSW Government failed to adequately consider alternative options at the commencement of the WestConnex project” and that “the transparency arrangements pertaining to the WestConnex business case have been unsatisfactory”.</p>
<p>These two findings apply to the Western Harbour Tunnel process too.</p>
<p>In the run-up to the 2019 state election, the government promoted the project and placed on public exhibition an environmental impact statement for the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/abcillawarra/photos/a.170201826359012/1799373796775132/?type=3&eid=ARCxMdhfJzTCWlRd2sIUTVqLc7P-hfGmJAX00uY3WgnhS5zmMSeB-eYCCDmKAu9AjkfW_xUj3_IrdxXM">A$2.6 billion F6 extension</a> between Arncliffe and Kogarah.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The proposed Western Harbour Tunnel and Beaches Link.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/projects/western-harbour-tunnel-beaches-link/index.html">Transport for NSW</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The state opposition promised to scrap the Western Harbour Tunnel and F6 projects. Instead, it would give priority to rail and public transport upgrades. </p>
<p>Some have <a href="https://theconversation.com/infrastructure-splurge-ignores-smarter-ways-to-keep-growing-cities-moving-105051">suggested time-of-day road congestion charges</a> as a much better option than more motorways.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-nsw-election-promises-on-transport-add-up-112531">How the NSW election promises on transport add up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Local government objections</h2>
<p>Four councils made detailed objections to the Western Harbour Tunnel proposal. </p>
<p>The City of Sydney, noting “it has been a long-time critic of WestConnex”, said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is primarily because this costly motorway project will fail in its primary objective of easing congestion. Urban motorways do not solve congestion; they <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/09/citylab-university-induced-demand/569455/">induce demand</a> for motor vehicle trips and any additional capacity created is quickly filled. This phenomenon applies equally to the Western Harbour Tunnel and Warringah Freeway Project, a component of the WestConnex expansion.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The City of Sydney recommended the government provide alternative public transport options.</p>
<p>The Inner West Council, whose suburb of Rozelle will be adversely impacted by the project, has also long opposed inner-urban motorways. It prefers “traffic-reduction solutions to addressing congestion, including public and active transport, travel demand management and transit-oriented development, with some modest/targeted road improvement”.</p>
<p>North Sydney Council noted significant concerns with the EIS, including “inadequate justification and need, loss of open space, construction and operational road network impacts, air quality and human health concerns, environmental, visual, social, amenity and heritage impacts, as well as numerous strategic projects having the potential to be compromised”.</p>
<p>Willoughby City Council noted the limited time given for considering a very large EIS, made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic. It questioned why a public transport alternative was not assessed. “Known alternative solutions with lower climate impacts need to be considered to be consistent with action on climate change and improved resilience.”</p>
<h2>Ignoring the alternatives</h2>
<p>In 2017, it was <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/f6-planners-told-to-ignore-public-transport-build-roads-documents-show-20170407-gvgbon.html">revealed</a> the NSW government was instructing transport officials to ignore public transport alternatives to motorways such as the F6 extension and Western Harbour Tunnel. Wollongong-Sydney train travel times could be cut by half an hour for A$10 billion less, according to a Transport for NSW internal memo. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-halve-train-travel-times-between-our-cities-by-moving-to-faster-rail-116512">We can halve train travel times between our cities by moving to faster rail</a>
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<hr>
<p>This is at a time when Sydney train ridership has been <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2019/yearbook_2019">increasing faster than the distance driven by Sydney motorists</a>. Rail showed 39% growth over ten years to 2018-19 and road just 12% in a time of rapid population growth.</p>
<p>Over many objections, the F6 extension is proceeding. Many aspects of the Western Harbour Tunnel need further attention. The NSW Ports Authority is concerned about the amount of highly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/warning-about-amount-of-toxic-sludge-to-be-dug-up-for-harbour-tunnel-20200416-p54kd3.html">contaminated sludge that will be dredged up</a> from the harbour. The shadow minister for roads, John Graham, <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnGrahamALP/status/1251415324324319234">notes</a> dredging will be close to residential areas.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1251415324324319234"}"></div></p>
<p>Heritage NSW has noted the project will have direct impacts on six sites, including the approaches to Sydney Harbour Bridge.</p>
<p>The Action for Public Transport (NSW) group questions the influence of the Transurban company on transport planning at a time when NSW’s long-term integrated transport and land use plans aim for net zero emissions by 2050. Its submission says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The funding for the project should be reallocated to more worthwhile projects such as filling in missing links in urban public transport systems, disentangling the passenger rail network from the rail freight network, and providing faster rail links to regional centres.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/infrastructure-splurge-ignores-smarter-ways-to-keep-growing-cities-moving-105051">Infrastructure splurge ignores smarter ways to keep growing cities moving</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What are these other priorities?</h2>
<p>NSW has a shortage of “fit for purpose” rail infrastructure to serve a growing population. This includes the Sydney Metro West (an <a href="https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/project/25631">EIS is on exhibition</a>) and ensuring the new Western Sydney Airport has a rail service. More funding is also needed to upgrade the existing rail system and to cover a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/4-3-billion-cost-blowout-in-sydney-s-metro-rail-project">A$4.3 billion cost blowout</a> on the Sydney City and Southwest Metro project. </p>
<p>The government has <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/news-and-events/media-releases/fast-rail-network-to-transform-australia">acknowledged</a> a need for better rail services to the South Coast, Newcastle, Canberra and Orange. In 2018, it <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/projects/a-fast-rail-future-for-nsw">commissioned</a> an independent report on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-04/fast-rail-given-green-light-by-berejiklian-without-commonwealth/10580658">fast rail options for NSW</a> by British fast rail expert <a href="https://static.nsw.gov.au/Fast-rail/1543351718/Expert-advice-on-fast-rail.pdf">Andrew McNaughton</a>. The completed report <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/faster-journeys-on-sydney-canberra-trains-among-priorities-20200225-p5444m.html">is yet to be released</a>. </p>
<p>The question now is should the Western Harbour Tunnel be abandoned or, at the very least, deferred until major rail projects have been completed.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>A reference to Western Highway Tunnel (which is of course the Western Harbour Tunnel) has been corrected in the last paragraph.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>
Philip Laird owns shares in some transport companies and has received funding from the two rail-related CRCs as well as the ARC and made a submission to the WHT proposal. He is affiliated, inter alia, Action for Public Transport (NSW) along with the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, the Rail Futures Institute and Engineers Australia. The opinions expressed are those of the author.
</span></em></p>Once again, the state looks intent on pressing ahead with a huge road project without releasing a business case. Among the many concerns is the failure to look at lower-emission alternatives.Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1319052020-03-01T19:03:38Z2020-03-01T19:03:38ZTransport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317523/original/file-20200227-24664-mmpjep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=92%2C134%2C5515%2C3362&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cars-stuck-traffic-intersection-120564112">e2dan/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At a time Australia is meant to be reducing its greenhouse emissions, the upward trend in transport sector emissions continues. The <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-september-2019">latest National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a> report released last week shows the transport sector emitted 102 million tonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂-e) in the 12 months to September 2019. This was 18.9% of Australia’s emissions. </p>
<p>Overall, the trend in emissions from all sectors have been essentially flat since 2013. If Australia is to reduce emissions, all sectors including transport must pull their weight. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-our-cities-can-cut-transport-emissions-in-a-hurry-avoid-shift-share-and-improve-106076">Four ways our cities can cut transport emissions in a hurry: avoid, shift, share and improve</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Overall trend emissions, by quarter, September 2009 to September 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-02/nggi-quarterly-update-sep-2019.pdf">National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Transport emissions have <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-02/nggi-quarterly-update-sep-2019.pdf">gone up 64% since 1990</a>. That’s the largest percentage increase of any sector. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Transport emissions, actual and trend, by quarter, September 2009 to September 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-02/nggi-quarterly-update-sep-2019.pdf">Source: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Transport sector emissions include the direct burning of fuels for road, rail, domestic aviation and domestic shipping, but exclude electricity for electric trains.</p>
<p>Transport emissions are now equal second with stationary energy (fuels consumed in the manufacturing, construction and commercial sectors and heating) at 18.9%. The electricity sector produces 33.6% of all emissions. The main reasons for transport emissions trending upwards are an over-dependence on cars with high average fuel use and an over-reliance on energy-intensive road freight.</p>
<h2>Inevitable results of policy failure</h2>
<p>Increasing transport emissions are a result of long-standing government policies on both sides of politics. In 2018, the Climate Council <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/transport-climate-change/">noted</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Australia’s cars are more polluting; our relative investment in and use of public and active transport options is lower than comparable countries; and we lack credible targets, policies, or plans to reduce greenhouse gas pollution from transport.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>John Quiggin and Robin Smit recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong-122378">wrote about vehicle fuel efficiency</a> for The Conversation. They cited <a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_9527cdcb01a84440a53308b3b5624320.pdf">new research</a> that indicates emissions from road transport will accelerate. This is largely due to increased sales of heavier vehicles, such as four-wheel drives, and diesel cars. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong-122378">We thought Australian cars were using less fuel. New research shows we were wrong</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The government has ignored recommendations to adopt mandatory fuel-efficiency standards for road passenger vehicles. Australia is the <a href="http://theconversation.com/labors-plan-for-transport-emissions-is-long-on-ambition-but-short-on-details-114592">only OECD country without such standards</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/NEEA%20October%202019%20%5BWeb%5D_2.pdf">Research by Hugh Saddler</a> found a marked increase in CO₂ emissions from burning diesel (up 21.7Mt between 2011 and 2018). A 2015 Turnbull government initiative to phase in from 2020 to 2025 a standard of 105g of CO₂ per kilometre for light vehicles was “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/02/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-diesel-vehicles-cancelled-out-cuts-from-renewable-energy">shelved after internal opposition</a> and criticism from the automotive lobby”. </p>
<p>At the same time, the uptake of electric vehicles is slow. Economist Ross Garnaut, in his 2019 book <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Superpower.html?id=KPiPDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">Superpower: Australia’s Low-Carbon Opportunity</a>, sums it up:</p>
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<p>Australia is late in preparation for and investment in electric road transport.</p>
</blockquote>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/clean-green-machines-the-truth-about-electric-vehicle-emissions-122619">Clean, green machines: the truth about electric vehicle emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Australia’s low transport energy efficiency (and so high CO₂ emissions) has also attracted overseas attention. The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy <a href="https://www.aceee.org/portal/national-policy/international-scorecard">rates the world’s 25 largest energy users</a> for sectors including transportation. In 2018, Australia slipped two places to 18th overall. It was <a href="http://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/publications/researchreports/i1801.pdf">20th for transportation with just 6.5 points</a> out of a possible 25 on nine criteria.</p>
<p>On four of these criteria, Australia scored zero: fuel economy of passenger vehicles, having no fuel-efficiency standards for passenger vehicles and heavy trucks, and having no smart freight programs.</p>
<p>For vehicle travel per capita, the score was half a point. For three metrics – freight task per GDP, use of public transport, and investment in rail transit versus roads – Australia scored just one point each. </p>
<p>Only in one metric, energy intensity of freight transport, did Australia get full marks. This was a result of the very high energy efficiency of the iron ore railways in Western Australia’s Pilbara region.</p>
<p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/imf-says-australia-has-overspent-on-roads-20180221-h0wfin">questioned</a> the Australian government’s preference for funding roads rather than more energy-efficient rail transport. The IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2019/02/13/Australia-2018-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-46612">says</a> Australia should be spending more on infrastructure, but this should be on rail, airports and seaports, rather than roads. </p>
<h2>What can be done</h2>
<p>The first thing is to acknowledge that our preferred passenger transport modes of cars and planes cause more emissions than trains, buses, cycling and walking. For example, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49349566">CO₂ emissions per passenger km</a> can be 171 grams for a passenger car as against 41g for domestic rail. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2019">Data source: Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors 2019</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For freight, our high dependence on trucks rather than rail or sea freight increases emissions by a factor of three.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-plan-for-transport-emissions-is-long-on-ambition-but-short-on-details-114592">Labor's plan for transport emissions is long on ambition but short on details</a>
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<hr>
<p>A 1996 report, <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/1996/report_094">Transport and Greenhouse</a>, from what is now the federal Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), reviewed no fewer than 16 measures (including five “no regrets” measures) to cut transport emissions. In a 2002 report, <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2002/report_105">Greenhouse Policy Options for Transport</a>, BITRE offered 11 measures to reduce vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), nine measures to reduce emissions per VKT, and four road-pricing measures (mass-distance charges for heavy trucks, tolls, internalising transport externalities and emission charging). </p>
<p>BITRE last appeared to revisit this important issue in a <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2009/wp_073">2009 report</a> on transport emission projections to 2020. This report projected a total of 103.87Mt CO₂-e for 2019. Actual 2019 transport emissions will be about 102Mt. </p>
<p>It’s important to note that BITRE’s 2009 projection was on a business-as-usual basis. The current level of about 4 tonnes a year per person is <a href="https://www.australasiantransportresearchforum.org.au/sites/default/files/2003_Laird.pdf">where Australia was in 2000</a>.</p>
<p>Clearly, Australia needs to do better. As well as the BITRE remedies, another remedy would be to <a href="https://www.australasiantransportresearchforum.org.au/sites/default/files/2003_Laird.pdf">adopt a 2002 National Action Plan</a> approved by the Australian Transport Council in collaboration with the Commonwealth, state and territory governments. The plan included, within ten years, “programs that encourage people to take fewer trips by car” and a shift “from predominantly fixed to predominantly variable costs” to “ensure that transport users experience more of the true cost of their travel choices”. This did not proceed. </p>
<p>However, New Zealand has effectively adopted this approach for many years. Petrol excise is now <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-generation-and-markets/liquid-fuel-market/duties-taxes-and-direct-levies-on-motor-fuels-in-new-zealand/">66.524 cents per litre</a> (just <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/business/excise-and-excise-equivalent-goods/fuel-excise/excise-rates-for-fuel/">42.3c/l in Australia</a>) and the revenue goes to the National Land Transport Fund for roads and alternatives to roads, resulting also in lower registration fees for cars. New Zealand has had mass distance pricing for heavy trucks for 40 years. These measures have not stopped its economy performing well. </p>
<p>Why do measures that would reduce transport emissions continue to be so elusive in Australia?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131905/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Laird owns shares in some transport companies and has received funding from the two rail-related CRCs as well as the ARC and the former Energy R&D Corporation. He is affiliated, inter alia, with the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, the Rail Futures Institute and Engineers Australia. The opinions expressed are those of the author.</span></em></p>The continued upward trend in our second-biggest source of emissions is a result of government inaction on a transport mix dominated by trucks and cars and a lack of fuel-efficiency standards.Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1279202020-01-05T16:50:01Z2020-01-05T16:50:01ZSelf-driving cars will not fix our transportation woes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305255/original/file-20191204-70167-1sspxo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=101%2C331%2C3733%2C2427&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Widespread use of autonomous vehicles could increase or cut greenhouse gas emissions. It all depends on public policy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s 2035, and you’re going to a movie. As you walk out the door, you reach for your phone instead of the car keys because you don’t have a car. Instead, you’ve ordered your ride to come to you. </p>
<p>The car that arrives has no driver or steering wheel. As you climb in, the electric motor silently comes to life, and the car whisks you into an aerodynamic peloton of vehicles, slipping through cross-traffic at intersections without stopping. </p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHzzSao6ypE">utopian vision</a> is a <a href="https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation-executive-summary">common prediction</a> for the disruption of <a href="http://wordpress.ei.columbia.edu/mobility/files/2012/12/Transforming-Personal-Mobility-Aug-10-2012.pdf">today’s road transportation</a>. This future of autonomous, on-demand electric vehicles is tantalizing. It promises a hands-free solution to various transportation woes. </p>
<p>The prevailing belief is that a system of self-driving cars will solve several environmental and social problems without us needing to worry about messy stuff like politics, activism or changing our travel habits. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this future will almost certainly never come to pass. Self-driving cars, left to their own devices, will likely do more harm than good. To avoid that outcome, we’ll have to turn off autopilot and shape the system of autonomous mobility so that it best serves both our needs and the needs of the planet.</p>
<h2>More roads, more cars</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.wired.com/2010/04/gallery-1939-worlds-fair/">Futurama, a General Motors-sponsored diorama at the 1939 New York World’s Fair</a>, made a similar promise: fast and efficient highways would make traffic congestion and accidents a thing of the past. </p>
<p>Once these highways were actually built, however, <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/09/citylab-university-induced-demand/569455/">induced demand</a> quickly clogged them up, as people took advantage of the new roads to make new trips that they didn’t make before. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1939 Futurama exhibit, like today’s predictions about autonomous vehicles, promised an easy technical solution to transportation problems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Futurama_diorama_detail.jpg">(Richard Garrison/Wikimedia)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Autonomous vehicles risk a more dangerous version of the same phenomenon. Not only will efficient autonomous highways <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02513625.2018.1525197">tempt people</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15472450.2017.1291351">drive further</a>, but the ability to work — or even sleep — while travelling will make <a href="https://psrc.github.io/attachments/2014/TRB-2015-Automated-Vehicles-Rev2.pdf">people think</a> much <a href="https://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/AUVSI/3a47c2f1-97a8-4fb7-8a39-56cba0733145/UploadedImages/documents/pdfs/7-16-14%20AVS%20presentations/kenLaberteaux.pdf">less of a two-hour commute</a>. </p>
<p>Cars might also become less energy-efficient as they’re modified to meet the demands of users. Passengers may run them at higher speeds because they’re safer, which consumes more energy due to aerodynamic resistance. <a href="https://www.treehugger.com/urban-design/honda-iemobi-mobile-autonomous-living-room-and-future-self-driving-cars.html">Car manufacturers</a> may also begin to design <a href="https://home.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2013/10/self-driving-cars-are-we-ready.pdf">larger vehicles</a> to accommodate mobile offices and bedrooms. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remove-car-lanes-restrict-vehicles-and-improve-transit-to-reduce-traffic-congestion-127873">Remove car lanes, restrict vehicles and improve transit to reduce traffic congestion</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This might be mitigated somewhat by electric vehicles, but that electricity may still come from fossil fuels. Plus, bigger vehicles with bigger batteries will produce more carbon emissions as a <a href="https://www.alternativesjournal.ca/energy-and-resources/your-electric-car-really-green">byproduct of their construction</a>. </p>
<p>These processes could, theoretically, be carbon-neutral, but that may not occur quickly enough. The safe bet is to reduce the number of kilometres travelled, rather than increasing them.</p>
<p>There’s also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.02.012">the threat</a> of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.12.001">an empty</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-018-9937-9">vehicle travelling many kilometres</a>. Why search for a parking spot when you could send your car home? </p>
<p>Scholars who have used computer models and other techniques to predict the environmental impact of autonomous vehicles have found the mass use of private self-driving cars could <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/67216.pdf">lead to increases</a> in carbon emissions of up to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.12.001">200 per cent</a>.</p>
<h2>Robo-taxi rejection</h2>
<p>Most of the utopian visions of self-driving cars assume that they will be shared, rather than owned privately. This would be a more sustainable option. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://home.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2013/10/self-driving-cars-are-we-ready.pdf">people are attached to their cars</a>. They like having a vehicle that is instantly dispatchable, that they can use as a mobile storage locker, and that signals their social status. </p>
<p>Shared vehicles might also be uncomfortable. Because of the risk of vandalism and mess caused by unsupervised passengers, robo-taxis might be equipped with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/5382192">hard plastic</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.09.005">bus-style seats</a>, rather than the plush upholstered interiors that motorists are accustomed to. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Lyft self-driving car drives on the streets in Palo Alto, Calif., in December 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Mobility_PeakCarOwnership_Report2017.pdf">Surveys</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2016.01.019">show</a> that if autonomous taxis cost US$1 per mile, only 10 per cent of respondents would give up their car to use them. Even if they were completely free, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2017.01.010">a quarter of motorists would still keep their cars</a>.</p>
<p>Autonomous taxis are far more likely to win over cyclists, pedestrians and transit riders. But this would likely make <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2017.05.418">those people’s trips less sustainable</a>. </p>
<p>None of this will be helped by the fact that autonomous vehicle enthusiasts envision a future of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3141%2F2381-10">road systems</a> free of <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/A-market-based-approach-to-accommodate-user-in-Vasirani/43c28122ab2c7bae2a11e7fa427e087de01a499f">traffic lights</a>, which will rarely provide space for cyclists or pedestrians. </p>
<h2>Best-case scenario</h2>
<p>But what if your autonomous trip to the theatre looked a bit different? </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05990-7_8">model being explored</a> by <a href="https://www.bcg.com/en-ca/publications/2016/transportation-travel-tourism-automotive-will-autonomous-vehicles-derail-trains.aspx">many scholars</a> and <a href="https://e-estonia.com/driverless-public-bus-tallinn/">experiments</a> in <a href="http://www.citymobil-project.eu/">Europe</a>, the autonomous vehicle that picks you up on your way to the movie theatre would be more like a last-mile shuttle for public transit.</p>
<p>It would move slowly but comfortably, picking up multiple passengers on its way to the local transit hub, where you would board a fast and efficient light rail line. You would still arrive at the movie with time to spare. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An autonomous shuttle service in Vincennes Woods, in Paris, fills the gaps in commuter transportation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This model could supplement existing forms of sustainable mobility rather than competing with them, making car ownership less mandatory. And because owning a car <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.05.006">predisposes people towards using a car</a>, this could be a powerful way to support sustainable transportation. </p>
<p>Shared, slow, autonomous shuttles integrated with public transit and other forms of sustainable mobility would <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05990-7_8">get around a lot of the technology’s current hurdles</a>. They could, for example, drive slowly enough that there would very little risk of them hurting or killing anyone. </p>
<p>If paired with other forms of sustainable urban transportation policy, such as committed support for bike lanes, as well as fast, efficient, and cheap public transit networks, they could play a key role in helping to realize a transportation scenario with vastly reduced car use, which could be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.08.020">our best shot</a> at averting the worst consequences of climate change. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-it-comes-to-vehicles-canada-tops-the-charts-for-poor-fuel-economy-115213">When it comes to vehicles, Canada tops the charts for poor fuel economy</a>
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<p>This outcome, however, will not emerge autonomously. It will require us to actively shape the mobility system through regulation, activism and planning. </p>
<p>It will require pushing back against vested interests that support dependence on private cars. And it will require us to reconsider our travel habits. </p>
<p>In short: Autonomous vehicles will not automatically drive us to a better transportation future. We’ll have to take the wheel ourselves.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127920/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cameron Roberts receives funding from The Transition Accelerator, a research organisation devoted to understanding, envisioning, and actively developing radical low-carbon transitions in Canada. He works with them as a postdoctoral research assistant, studying low-carbon personal mobility. He has also been involved with the activist groups Extinction Rebellion, Our Time, and Courage Coalition.</span></em></p>The sweeping introduction of driverless cars could see more vehicles on the road, driving longer distances. But smart planning could solve some of transit-associated environmental and social problems.Cameron Roberts, Researcher in Sustainable Transportation, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1277222019-12-10T18:55:53Z2019-12-10T18:55:53ZWe’re still fighting city freeways after half a century<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305779/original/file-20191209-90574-1iu8a5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C140%2C2733%2C1629&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Demonstrations against freeway construction in Melbourne included a street barricade erected in protest at the F19 extension of the Eastern Freeway. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/9619159?q&versionId=11163258">Barricade! – the resident fight against the F19</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is the third article in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/melbourne-transportation-plan-79828">series</a> to mark the 50th anniversary of the landmark Melbourne Transportation Plan.</em></p>
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<p>Like the modernist plans of its time, the 1969 Melbourne Metropolitan Transportation Plan was bold in ambition. Major motorways have been built across the city <a href="https://theconversation.com/50-years-on-from-the-melbourne-transportation-plan-what-can-we-learn-from-its-legacy-127721">as a result of the plan</a>. For Melbourne, the aspiration of the 1969 plan lives on in our relentless pursuit of new mega-road projects. </p>
<p>From the start, these projects <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111148508522585">met with community resistance</a>. And, like the roads of the 1960s and ’70s, the roads proposed in recent times for <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-east-west-link-is-dead-a-victory-for-21st-century-thinking-34914">Melbourne</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/roe-8-fails-the-tests-of-responsible-21st-century-infrastructure-planning-71810">Perth</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/health-impacts-and-murky-decision-making-feed-public-distrust-of-projects-like-westconnex-106996">Sydney</a> can still mobilise communities. As Australian cities continue to build massive urban freeways and toll roads half a century after the heyday of modernist planning, it is time to pause and reflect. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/50-years-on-from-the-melbourne-transportation-plan-what-can-we-learn-from-its-legacy-127721">50 years on from the Melbourne Transportation Plan, what can we learn from its legacy?</a>
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<h2>Still building urban mega-roads</h2>
<p>The building of freeways in the 1960s and ’70s <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111148508522585">triggered major protests</a> by urban residents. These citizens were concerned about the loss of public land, established housing and the spatial divisions big roads create. </p>
<p>Today residents of our cities still have these concerns, to which we can add climate change. The transport sector is the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/transport-climate-change/">fastest-growing source of emissions</a> that are driving climate change. </p>
<p>There is now substantial international <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/09/citylab-university-induced-demand/569455/">evidence</a> building more freeways does not solve congestion, a principle <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=694596">evident since the 1960s</a>. Instead, it induces more traffic, entrenching reliance on cars.</p>
<p>Melbourne’s 1969 plan proposed over 1,000 kilometres of freeways and arterial roads in a grid-like network covering the entire metropolitan area. Despite many parts of this network having been completed, the controversies continue. Projects such as the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/east-west-link-battle-lines-still-drawn-over-massive-road-project-20190521-p51pkf.html">East West Link</a>, the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/our-ridiculous-frenzy-of-road-construction-will-swallow-up-resources-for-two-decades-20180105-h0dwd0.html">West Gate Tunnel</a>, the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/big-projects-bigger-bills-massive-construction-boom-comes-at-a-cost-20190610-p51w5d.html">North East Link</a> and the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/traffic-crisis-new-mordialloc-freeway-to-dump-thousands-of-cars-on-local-roads-20181108-p50eqh.html">Mordialloc Freeway</a> have all to varying degrees shown how these projects can mobilise significant community opposition. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Author Andrew Butt discusses the 1969 Melbourne Transportation Plan and its impacts.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840">Sidelining citizens when deciding on transport projects is asking for trouble</a>
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<p>In Victoria, the state government has had a resurgence of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/our-ridiculous-frenzy-of-road-construction-will-swallow-up-resources-for-two-decades-20180105-h0dwd0.html">road-building frenzy</a>. Melbourne will see the construction of the West Gate Tunnel, North East Link and Mordialloc Freeway projects, despite <a href="https://theconversation.com/transurbans-west-gate-tollway-is-a-road-into-uncharted-territory-89164">significant reservations</a> expressed by transport academics. </p>
<h2>History repeats?</h2>
<p>In 1973, the Hamer government heard the community outcry and cancelled many of the inner-city freeways proposed for Melbourne. This was not so for the F19 extension of the Eastern Freeway. It became the site of sustained fierce protest by the community and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/old-time-protesters-return-to-fight-construction-of-east-west-link-20131219-2zo1g.html">local government representatives</a>.</p>
<p>Taking heart from successful environmental protests in the late 1960s, such as <a href="http://www.environmentandsociety.org/tools/keywords/protests-against-agricultural-use-little-desert">saving the Little Desert</a>, residents were not going to take the F19 freeway’s threat to their neighbourhood lying down. They went to the barricades (quite literally) to stop the bulldozers and the destruction of the Alexander Parade trees. </p>
<p>In 2013, Melbournians were ready again when this project controversially re-emerged (this time as the East West Link tunnel). Sustained community protest was supported by three local governments (Yarra, Moreland and latterly Moonee Valley) that <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/moonee-valley-third-council-to-launch-legal-action-against-east-west-link-20141015-116nqx.html">funded legal challenges to stop the project</a>. </p>
<p>With eventual support from the Labor Party, then vying for political office in the 2014 state election, the project was <a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840">cancelled</a>. The ALP’s support for the citizen protest movement was arguably a significant factor in winning government. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-restore-the-publics-faith-in-transport-planning-73684">How do we restore the public's faith in transport planning?</a>
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<p>Similarly, the proposed Perth Freight Route (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-16/why-is-the-debate-over-roe-8-continuing/11310120">Roe 8</a>), <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-restore-the-publics-faith-in-transport-planning-73684">stopped in 2017</a>, provides an extraordinary example of what a community can achieve when united in a single purpose. Again, it took a change of government.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-ingredients-for-running-a-successful-environmental-campaign-72371">Three ingredients for running a successful environmental campaign</a>
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<h2>Are governments listening today?</h2>
<p>The link between public (and increasingly private) investment in mega-road projects and growing emissions appears to have escaped the attention of the processes that oversee public project decisions – panel hearings, ministerial processes and environmental impact assessments. The costs of these transport projects, driven by past decisions and plans, as well as the costs of not pursuing the alternatives, will affect budgets and our environment over decades. </p>
<p>Though the formal planning processes have largely avoided the connection of road projects to increased emissions, many concerned urban citizens recognise the link. </p>
<p>Groups and individuals are making these connections in their submissions to government planning panels, through social media and on the streets in traditional demonstrations. </p>
<p>We see a growing number of protest actions, including <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/little-los-angeles-sydney-s-inner-west-hits-back-at-road-tunnel-plan-20190927-p52vlx.html">WestConnex</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/impending-traffic-chaos-beware-the-problematic-west-gate-tunnel-forecasts-79331">West Gate Tunnel Project</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-kind-of-state-values-a-freeways-heritage-above-the-heritage-of-our-oldest-living-culture-122195">Western Highway widening project</a>, the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/mordialloc-freeway-risks-polluting-water-feeding-to-un-protected-wetlands-documents-reveal-20190224-p50zvn.html">Mordialloc Freeway project</a> and the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-councils-join-forces-to-fight-north-east-link-20190615-p51y28.html">North East Link</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-kind-of-state-values-a-freeways-heritage-above-the-heritage-of-our-oldest-living-culture-122195">What kind of state values a freeway's heritage above the heritage of our oldest living culture?</a>
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<p>These citizens are alarmed by decisions being made in their name. It would appear citizen action has had success in the past. Electoral risk is a powerful motivator for governments.</p>
<h2>Emissions demand a change of direction</h2>
<p>Taking a leaf out of the backlash against the modernist project vision of the 1969 “free”-way plan for transport based on fossil fuel use, we need to shape a new vision of sustainable, healthy, fair forms of mobility. We can learn from the experience of the 1970s communities that exercised their rights as citizens to participate in civic discussions on a new shared future. </p>
<p>Unless we can stem escalating carbon emissions, catastrophic warming of the planet will be inevitable. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/11-000-scientists-warn-climate-change-isnt-just-about-temperature-126261">impacts are becoming ever clearer</a>, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-can-make-catastrophic-weather-systems-linger-for-longer-111832">extreme weather events already apparent</a>. We are warned.</p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-problem-with-transport-models-is-political-abuse-not-their-use-in-planning-127720">The problem with transport models is political abuse, not their use in planning</a>
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<p><em>A public event to mark the 50th anniversary of the Melbourne Transportation Plan will be held on December 12 2019, hosted by RMIT University and supported by Swinburne University, Monash University and the University of Melbourne – <a href="https://cur.org.au/events/looking-back-and-going-forward-the-melbourne-transport-plan-50-years-on/">details here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127722/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Butt is affiliated with Western Connection, a small community group which has been involved in local debates on transport projects affecting Melbourne's inner west, including through submissions and media regarding the West Gate Tunnel Project, which is under construction.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy has received funding from the Australia Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gerry McLoughlin receives funding from CRC for a PhD candidacy.
Co Founder and Vice President of Inner Melbourne Planning Alliance Inc. established as a citizens' group for meaningful engagement in public processes. IMPA Inc. makes submissions to public processes including the West Gate Tunnel Project 2017 currently under construction, the East West Link (cancelled) 2014, the North East Link (under consideration) 2019, Federal Government Committee Hearing on Cities 2018.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Woodcock has received funding from federal, state and local governments, as well as the Australian Research Council, the design industry and community organisations, to support independent academic research. He is affiliated with various sustainable transport and planning advocacy groups, and is a member of the Public Transport Users Association.</span></em></p>Public protests eventually forced the scrapping of some proposed freeways in 1973. Today, we have another round of projects and people are protesting again, with good reason. Government should listen.Andrew Butt, Associate Professor in Sustainability and Urban Planning, RMIT UniversityCrystal Legacy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneGerardine (Gerry) McLoughlin, PhD Candidate, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of TechnologyIan Woodcock, Senior Lecturer, Director of Urban Design, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1277202019-12-09T19:01:07Z2019-12-09T19:01:07ZThe problem with transport models is political abuse, not their use in planning<p><em>This is the second article in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/melbourne-transportation-plan-79828">series</a> to mark the 50th anniversary of the landmark Melbourne Transportation Plan.</em></p>
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<p>Transport models are often singled out as a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0967070X16306606">barrier</a> to providing more sustainable and equitable transport services. However, abandoning transport models would <a href="https://transportfutures.co/in-defence-of-predict-and-provide-1b990a6566fa">most likely weaken planning</a>, not enhance it. But getting the best out of such modelling requires transparency to overcome the increasing problem of its misuse to justify predetermined political decisions.</p>
<p>On the 50th anniversary of the Melbourne Transportation Plan, we review the role of transport modelling as a planning tool. What are models now telling us about the future of Australian cities?</p>
<h2>From rational planning …</h2>
<p>The 1969 Melbourne Transportation Plan was based on the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0739456X9001000105">Chicago Area Transportation Plan</a>, an approach that other Australian cities then adopted. A feature was the extensive collection of travel data, often for the first time. Newly available computer models were then used to predict travel demand, which the plan sought to accommodate. </p>
<p>This is often referred to as the “rational” or “predict and provide” approach to transport planning. </p>
<p>By today’s standards, the goals of the ’69 plan sound like a utopian dream of free-flowing freeways and frequent, comfortable public transport services. It assumed a population living in detached housing on quarter-acre blocks. </p>
<p>Melbourne’s “solution”, and that of many other cities, was to build an extensive freeway network. The car took over from the rail system as the primary mode of travel. </p>
<p>Today’s reality shows this has been no solution to the seemingly intractable problems of congestion and overcrowding, coupled with inequitable access to services, jobs and other opportunities.</p>
<h2>… to political mandates</h2>
<p>In response, it seems Australian transport agencies have abandoned the preparation of comprehensive transport plans. Gone are the days of foreshadowing projects decades into the future, with land for these road and rail projects being reserved in the planning scheme. </p>
<p>We <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-hardly-ever-trust-big-transport-announcements-heres-how-politicians-get-it-right-101246">operate in an era where political mandates</a> have replaced comprehensive planning. Transport models are no longer used to plan for the future. Instead, they are used to justify the most recent announcement. </p>
<p>The nexus between transport models and the justification of controversial projects results in much critical commentary. The models become guilty by association.</p>
<p>It is true model outputs are far from infallible. One problem is that models depend on key input assumptions such as future population. The ’69 plan, for example, assumed Melbourne would reach a population of 3.7 million by 1985, but this didn’t occur until 20 years later. </p>
<p>The early models also <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/managing-traffic-congestion?section=">ignored the problem of induced demand</a> – the tendency of new transport infrastructure itself to generate additional demand. </p>
<p>Aside from the inherent challenge of predicting the future, models suffer from the problem of “strategic misrepresentation” – more simply, <a href="https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/833099">lying</a>. This can occur when models are called upon to justify a predetermined political decision. </p>
<p>The best safeguard against such behaviour is transparency. This is achieved by making the detailed modelling results available for peer review. Under these conditions, models can provide useful planning intelligence.</p>
<h2>More of the same is a poor plan</h2>
<p>A recent Infrastructure Australia <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/urban-transport-crowding-and-congestion">report</a> predicts worsening road congestion and public transport crowding over the coming decades in all Australian capitals. These predictions are the result of the lack of endorsed strategies to deal with population growth coupled with Australia’s dependence on the private motor vehicle. Indeed, the report highlights many examples where major new road projects will worsen congestion by encouraging more car use. </p>
<p>A lesson from the past 50 years is that Australia’s major capitals occupy large areas by world standards and are ill suited to a transport strategy based on <a href="https://chartingtransport.com/2011/08/20/whats-happening-with-car-occupancy/">low-occupancy vehicles</a>. It isn’t surprising “Europeanesque” inner suburbs based around walking, cycling and public transport are increasingly <a href="https://www.pwc.com.au/press-room/2018/citypulse-melbourne.html">valued</a> as preferred places to live. </p>
<p>Can modelling be blamed for our collective failure to devise a realistic plan to accommodate our cities’ growing populations? At what point does the reality of everlasting congestion trump predictions of incremental travel time savings? </p>
<p>US President Dwight Eisenhower once <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-the-national-defense-executive-reserve-conference">said</a>: “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” Intuitively we know the pressure of population growth and the climate emergency demand a considered response. The recent work of Infrastructure Australia provides a prediction of the scale of this challenge. </p>
<p>We urgently need a sensible discussion about developing a realistic plan to deal with this challenge. Doing more of the same, as we have done over the past 50 years, doesn’t sound like a solution to us.</p>
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<p><em>A public event to mark the 50th anniversary of the Melbourne Transportation Plan will be held on December 12 2019, hosted by RMIT University and supported by Swinburne University, Monash University and the University of Melbourne – <a href="https://cur.org.au/events/looking-back-and-going-forward-the-melbourne-transport-plan-50-years-on/">details here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127720/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Keys is a transport consultant advising public and private organisations and campaigns for better transport policies and projects.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris De Gruyter works at RMIT University. He is a member of the Australian Institute of Traffic Planning and Management (AITPM) and the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graham Currie Directs the Public Transport Research Group at Monash University and is a leading international researcher, author, advisor and commentator in the field.</span></em></p>Transport modelling has been tarnished by its use to justify the predetermined projects politicians favour. But, if used more transparently, it’s a valuable tool for planning our future cities.Eric Keys, PhD Researcher, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityChris De Gruyter, Vice-Chancellor's Research Fellow, RMIT UniversityGraham Currie, Professor of Public Transport, Director Public Transport Research Group, Director Monash Infrastructure, Adjunct Professor, Monash Art Design and Architecture, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1277212019-12-08T18:51:13Z2019-12-08T18:51:13Z50 years on from the Melbourne Transportation Plan, what can we learn from its legacy?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304212/original/file-20191128-178101-188d2x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C281%2C3914%2C2648&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Melbourne Transportation Plan included every freeway and major arterial road built in the city since 1969.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shuang Li/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is the first article in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/melbourne-transportation-plan-79828">series</a> to mark the 50th anniversary of the landmark Melbourne Transportation Plan.</em></p>
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<p>The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1969_Melbourne_Transportation_Plan">1969 Melbourne Transportation Plan</a> was perhaps the most influential planning policy in the city’s history. Every freeway and major arterial road built since then, as well as many current freeway and tollway projects and proposals, stem from this plan.</p>
<p>Given current debates about freeway construction (<a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/east-west-link-battle-lines-still-drawn-over-massive-road-project-20190521-p51pkf.html">East West Link</a>, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/our-ridiculous-frenzy-of-road-construction-will-swallow-up-resources-for-two-decades-20180105-h0dwd0.html">West Gate Tunnel</a>, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/big-projects-bigger-bills-massive-construction-boom-comes-at-a-cost-20190610-p51w5d.html">North East Link</a>, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-16/why-is-the-debate-over-roe-8-continuing/11310120">Roe 8</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/little-los-angeles-sydney-s-inner-west-hits-back-at-road-tunnel-plan-20190927-p52vlx.html">WestConnex</a>) and <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">increasing commute times across Australia</a>, it is timely to reflect on the 1969 plan and lessons to be drawn from this experience.</p>
<h2>The post-war boom and the car</h2>
<p>Melbourne boomed after the second world war. The population grew from <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3105.0.65.0012016?OpenDocument">1.2 million in 1947 to 2.1 million in 1966</a>. </p>
<p>At the same time, technological changes transformed our way of life. New manufacturing opportunities provided jobs to support families and consumer goods to fill their lives with. The Australian dream of a family home on a quarter-acre block was reinforced in this era.</p>
<p>Cars shaped the post-war suburbs. Estates typified by free-standing dwellings with garages had become the norm by the 1960s. The opening in 1960 of Chadstone, Melbourne’s first modern shopping mall based on the US model, set the pattern for car-based planning.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303664/original/file-20191126-112526-1wdaba0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303664/original/file-20191126-112526-1wdaba0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303664/original/file-20191126-112526-1wdaba0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303664/original/file-20191126-112526-1wdaba0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303664/original/file-20191126-112526-1wdaba0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303664/original/file-20191126-112526-1wdaba0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303664/original/file-20191126-112526-1wdaba0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303664/original/file-20191126-112526-1wdaba0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Advertisement for the Holden FC, Australia’s Own Car, in the late 1950s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Linklater, B. R., lithographer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/policy-and-strategy/planning-for-melbourne/melbournes-strategic-planning-history/melbourne-metropolitan-planning-scheme-1954-report">1954 Metropolitan Planning Scheme</a> embraced these trends. It proposed low-density car-based suburban development and a freeway system to serve it. These policies were adopted across the English-speaking world, with the United States its primary advocate.</p>
<p>Notoriously, from the 1920s to the 1950s motor car interests had <a href="https://casetext.com/case/united-states-v-national-city-lines-2">bought up tramway systems</a> that had shaped many US cities, replacing them with buses that were far less popular. The <a href="https://lithub.com/the-car-culture-thats-helping-destroy-the-planet-was-by-no-means-inevitable/">culture of the car was created; it wasn’t inevitable</a>. </p>
<p>This pattern was followed in the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Australia, where trams were ripped out of every capital city except Melbourne. </p>
<h2>The 1969 plan</h2>
<p>This environment was the context for the 1969 plan, which US consultants supervised. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283809298_Transport_modelling_in_the_context_of_the_'predict_and_provide'_paradigm">Faith in the desirability of a car-based future</a> obscured the flaws in the transport modelling assumptions.</p>
<p>The plan forecast a rise in car usage and laid out an extensive road network to support this. It did not discuss effects on urban form, merely characterising itself as supporting the 1954 Metropolitan Planning Scheme and existing development trends.</p>
<p>The plan proposed 307 miles (494 kilometres) of freeways. This accounted for 64% of the proposed spending. The network was to provide for the predicted 6 million daily car trips by the plan’s scheduled completion in 1985.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303674/original/file-20191126-112499-ggkxmz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303674/original/file-20191126-112499-ggkxmz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303674/original/file-20191126-112499-ggkxmz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303674/original/file-20191126-112499-ggkxmz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303674/original/file-20191126-112499-ggkxmz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303674/original/file-20191126-112499-ggkxmz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303674/original/file-20191126-112499-ggkxmz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303674/original/file-20191126-112499-ggkxmz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The recommended freeway system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">1969 Melbourne Transportation Plan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A 323-mile (520km) highway and arterial road network – both new and widened roads – was to support the freeway network. Some 80 level-crossing removals would promote free-flowing traffic. Combined, these road proposals were costed at A$2.2 billion (in 1969 dollars) – 85% of the proposed budget.</p>
<p>In contrast to the rest of Australia, the plan proposed retaining and modernising Melbourne’s tram system. There were to be 910 new trams (the system today has about <a href="https://yarratrams.com.au/facts-figures">475</a>). </p>
<p>The plan also included rail improvements, notably the City Loop, electrification to outer areas, rail duplications or triplications, new radial lines to Doncaster and Monash, and suburban loop lines between Huntingdale and Ferntree Gully and between Dandenong and Frankston. Only 13.5% of the plan’s spending was to be on rail.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303673/original/file-20191126-112489-1mpon3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303673/original/file-20191126-112489-1mpon3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303673/original/file-20191126-112489-1mpon3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303673/original/file-20191126-112489-1mpon3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303673/original/file-20191126-112489-1mpon3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303673/original/file-20191126-112489-1mpon3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303673/original/file-20191126-112489-1mpon3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303673/original/file-20191126-112489-1mpon3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Proposed general railway development to 1985.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">1969 Melbourne Transportation Plan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The community responds</h2>
<p>The plan triggered a backlash against freeways being built through urban neighbourhoods. Residents mobilised against demolitions and what they saw as the destruction of their neighbourhoods. Communities were already opposing the Victorian Housing Commission’s campaign of “slum reclamation” and high-rise tower construction.</p>
<p>The Eastern Freeway (F19) construction, begun in 1970, was <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111148508522585">fiercely opposed</a>. Protests increased through the 1970s. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303656/original/file-20191126-112512-1xisn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303656/original/file-20191126-112512-1xisn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303656/original/file-20191126-112512-1xisn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303656/original/file-20191126-112512-1xisn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303656/original/file-20191126-112512-1xisn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303656/original/file-20191126-112512-1xisn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303656/original/file-20191126-112512-1xisn9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alexandra Parade was barricaded in protest against the F19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.ycat.org.au/1977-the-battle-of-alexandra-parade/3/">Barricade! – the resident fight against the F19</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Public opposition was partly responsible for the plan’s scope being reduced in 1973. </p>
<p>The changed social context of the 1970s demanded a more responsive government. As attitudes and expectations change, so too must the plans for cities.</p>
<h2>How might things have been different?</h2>
<p>The 1969 plan laid out a freeway network as a blueprint for subsequent governments to follow. Much of this network has been built, but very few of the public transport projects were implemented.</p>
<p>The City Loop rail tunnels opened in stages from 1981 to 1985, but only the smallest of the rail extensions has been built. Some lines have closed since 1969. This has marginalised the rail system’s usefulness to most people except those travelling to and from the central city.</p>
<p>The effects on Melbourne have been profound and far more biased towards cars than even the plan intended, yet things could have been otherwise. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ahr/article/112/4/1210/13728">Washington DC</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/may/09/story-cities-38-vancouver-canada-freeway-protest-liveable-city">Vancouver</a> both proposed extensive freeway networks in the 1960s. In these cities, governments responded to community opposition by shifting the focus towards public transport, cycling and walking.</p>
<p>Rising transport emissions are the <a href="https://www.who.int/sustainable-development/transport/health-risks/climate-impacts/en/">largest single contributor to global heating</a>. Melbourne is at a tipping point, needing to embrace transport options that lower emissions and support sustainable urban development. </p>
<p>Victoria’s 2010 <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwib0eXG84vmAhVFT30KHSq5BXgQFjADegQIARAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.legislation.vic.gov.au%2FDomino%2FWeb_Notes%2FLDMS%2FPubStatbook.nsf%2Ff932b66241ecf1b7ca256e92000e23be%2F800014F6404488AACA2576DA000E3354%2F%24FILE%2F10-006a.pdf&usg=AOvVaw31Nb6HixOp7K9o_ducUfO_">Transport Integration Act</a> has a progressive vision that includes minimising long commutes and reducing reliance on cars. Arguably, <a href="https://theconversation.com/stuck-in-traffic-we-need-a-smarter-approach-to-congestion-than-building-more-roads-84774">a continued emphasis on road development will frustrate these objectives</a>. </p>
<p>Current rail projects are largely <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/developing-transport-infrastructure-and-services-population-growth-areas?section=30958--audit-summary">playing catch up</a>. If all of the lines proposed in the 1969 plan, along with its level-crossing removals, had been completed as planned by 1985, Melbourne would be quite different today, and for much less than the cost of all of the roads built or <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/plan-for-hundreds-of-kilometres-of-new-freeways-20101010-16e04.html">planned in the foreseeable future</a>.</p>
<p>We should plan now for the future city we want to live in. Melbourne doesn’t need to tear down its suburbs and <a href="https://www.ptua.org.au/myths/density/">rebuild them at high densities before better public transport can be justified</a>. The city needs to <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/we-can-afford-better-public-transport-if-we-stop-building-freeways-20180419-p4zaj0.html">focus on better alternatives to cars</a> to give its citizens choices as <a href="https://www.farandwide.com/s/public-transit-systems-ranked-c5d839d8a48d4da3">many other cities</a> have done. </p>
<p>This is an immense challenge, but we should look back on 1969 to see the long-term impacts such a plan can have. Despite its name and breadth of content, it was a road plan rather than a comprehensive transport plan. Yet we need the type of long-term city-shaping thinking that underpinned that plan, but directed in ways that fit a <a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-needs-a-big-picture-transport-plan-that-isnt-about-winners-v-losers-65567">genuinely sustainable, smart and fair 2019 vision for 2069 that we can all support</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>A public event to mark the 50th anniversary of the Melbourne Transportation Plan will be held on December 12 2019, hosted by RMIT University, supported by Swinburne University, Monash University and the University of Melbourne – <a href="https://cur.org.au/events/looking-back-and-going-forward-the-melbourne-transport-plan-50-years-on/">details here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127721/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liam Davies receives funding from an Australian Government Research Training Program Stipend Scholarship, and an AHURI Housing Postgraduate Scholarship Top-up. He also works with the Institute for Sensible Transport. He is a member of PIA Victoria. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Woodcock has receive funding from federal, state and local governments, industry and community organisations to support independent academic research. He is affiliated with various advocacy groups for sustainable transport and planning, and is a member of the Public Transport Users Association.</span></em></p>While called a transportation plan,
it was heavily skewed towards roads. We need the type of city-shaping thinking that underpinned the plan, but today’s plans must match 21st-century priorities.Liam Davies, PhD Candidate, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityIan Woodcock, Senior Lecturer, Director of Urban Design, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1276032019-12-02T18:13:24Z2019-12-02T18:13:24ZMarket-led infrastructure may sound good but not if it short-changes the public<p>The privatisation of services in Australian cities has weakened public control of key infrastructure. This is likely to accelerate as governments look to market-led proposals to provide infrastructure. </p>
<p>For nearly three decades, the <a href="http://ncp.ncc.gov.au/">rationale for privatisation has been competition</a>. Competition was expected to keep costs down, foster innovation and ensure the public interest was preserved. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stumbling-into-the-future-living-with-the-legacy-of-the-great-infrastructure-sell-off-73850">Stumbling into the future: living with the legacy of the great infrastructure sell-off</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Now, the increasing resort to market-led infrastructure proposals means even the minimal safeguard of “competition” is disappearing. These unsolicited proposals by private firms have not been subject to competitive assessment. </p>
<p>Market-led proposals present a risk for how our cities function. If infrastructure is built in the interests of private actors, the outcomes will favour them, not citizens. Privatising key public assets that are <a href="https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/natural-monopoly/">natural monopolies</a>, such as railways, opens the door to <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rentseeking.asp">rent-seeking</a>.</p>
<p>While allowing governments to conveniently avoid the capital costs appearing on public balance sheets, market-led proposals seem engineered to deliver monopoly rents from users to private interests. </p>
<p>To stop this exploitation, governments need to reassert the public interest in procuring and operating key infrastructure. This includes ensuring new infrastructure is integrated with existing networks and meets the needs of all citizens. Governments must explicitly guard against financial or user-charging arrangements that disguise exploitative rents to private operators.</p>
<p>A lack of transparent government oversight will result in even more public <a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840">protest and resistance</a> in the planning of cities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840">Sidelining citizens when deciding on transport projects is asking for trouble</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Who plans the future city?</h2>
<p>Concerns about market-led proposals are important because the planning of Australian cities and regions is no longer the sole domain of government. Often market-led proposals emerge where governments have vacated policy and planning by simply not having a plan. </p>
<p>At the national scale, a consortium of property interests has proposed the <a href="http://www.clara.com.au/the-clara-plan.html">CLARA</a> (Consolidated Land and Rail Australia) project to build high-speed rail between Melbourne and Sydney. The scheme would give the consortium the monopoly right to develop land, building new “CLARA” cities along the route.</p>
<p>In the capital cities, private consortia are filling voids in government planning by proposing, planning and building “city-shaping” infrastructure. We see this in Melbourne, where market-led proposals to build an airport rail link and the <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/about/west-gate-tunnel-authority">West Gate Tunnel</a> have appeared in the absence of a metropolitan transport plan.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-needs-a-big-picture-transport-plan-that-isnt-about-winners-v-losers-65567">Victoria needs a big-picture transport plan that isn't about winners v losers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Although the Victorian government has been considering preferred options for an airport rail line, a private consortium has produced an unsolicited proposal along an alternative route.</p>
<p>Comprising Melbourne Airport, Southern Cross Station, Metro Trains Australia and IFM Investors, <a href="https://www.airrailmelbourne.com.au/#about">AirRail Melbourne’s</a> A$5 billion bid is being assessed under the Victoria government’s <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/Market-led-Proposals-Guideline-November-2017%20%282%29.pdf">market-led proposal guidelines</a>. </p>
<p>If approved, the AirRail model would hand <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/airport-rail-tunnel-could-come-with-extra-tolls-for-taxpayers-20191113-p53a8f.html">control of a key link in Melbourne’s metropolitan rail network</a> to a private company, allowing monopoly pricing and servicing that puts profit before public interest. The consortium is proposing a fare of up to A$20, thus placing the link outside the zone-based public transport ticketing system. Currently, travel is viewed as a public service available to all passengers at a uniform fare.</p>
<p>In both Sydney and Brisbane, privatised airport rail lines operate on separate fare structures that reflect their private financing.</p>
<h2>Lack of transparency is a problem</h2>
<p>According to the Victorian <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/Market-led-Proposals-Guideline-November-2017%20%282%29.pdf">guidelines</a>, unsolicited proposals are meant to follow “a transparent and fair process while maintaining the highest level of probity and public accountability”. </p>
<p>But there are plenty of examples of problems wrought by market-led proposals. </p>
<p>For instance, just last week the state auditor-general was <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/6-7-billion-west-gate-tunnel-not-value-for-money-says-state-auditor-20191127-p53ehx.html">highly critical</a> of the A$6.7 billion West Gate Tunnel project, which was approved in 2017. This project has been criticised before for <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/costing-of-west-gate-tunnel-is-far-from-transparent-20190314-p5148c.html">lacking transparency about the financial benefits – more than A$37 billion in additional toll revenue – reaped by its proponent</a>, Transurban. </p>
<p>This lack of transparency raises questions about the impacts market-led proposals have on the integrity and effectiveness of infrastructure planning. How can the public interest be defended if the mechanisms in place to ensure this are compromised?</p>
<p>An earlier auditor-general’s <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/20150819-HVHR-process.pdf">report</a> concluded:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In terms of transparency, government has yet to finalise how it communicates the costs, funding, rationale and expected benefits of committed unsolicited proposals. Current approaches to reporting on infrastructure projects do not adequately convey this information to the community.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The auditor-general’s <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/market-led-proposals">report on market-led proposals</a> last week also raised doubts about the assessment process for the West Gate Tunnel. The project was nominally “bundled” with the Monash Freeway widening, with the latter gifting its higher benefits to the tunnel project. </p>
<p>Concerns have also been raised at the national level. </p>
<p>In 2016, the chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, Rod Simms, <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/rod-sims-says-government-greed-risks-privatisation-mandate-20161010-gryzvs">warned</a> against a model of privatisation that gives monopolies and oligopolies control over pricing the maintenance of what are really public assets. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-sense-of-the-global-infrastructure-turn-73853">Making sense of the global infrastructure turn</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Public interest planning must be restored</h2>
<p>We haven’t yet lost all public control of our cities. But if we are not paying attention, the path we are on is a worrying one. </p>
<p>A sure way to avoid further erosion of the public good in infrastructure planning is to abandon the approach of market-led projects. These shadowy, inequitable processes are surely undermining public confidence in the governance of cities, and in government in general. </p>
<p>We urge governments not to further privatise more public, especially monopoly, assets, as proposed in the airport rail bid. Governments must ensure infrastructure is built in the public interest, not shaped by the needs of private capital.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127603/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy has received funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Gleeson receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University currently receives funding from AHURI, the European Commission and the Department of Environment to support Jago Dodson's research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stone has received funding from State agencies for contract research and from the ARC. </span></em></p>Unsolicited market proposals are not transparently assessed. Infrastructure should be built to serve the public interest, not shaped by its private backers, but the checks to ensure this are broken.Crystal Legacy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneBrendan Gleeson, Director, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneJago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityJohn Stone, Senior Lecturer in Transport Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1254432019-11-06T11:14:24Z2019-11-06T11:14:24ZFour visions for the future of public transport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300236/original/file-20191105-88382-nasrla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=911%2C280%2C4153%2C2337&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/near-future-view-renewable-electrified-city-1524202889?src=0a6d1fff-e98f-435a-b20a-c212a908f828-4-32">Solveig Been/Shutterstock. </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The way people get around is starting to change, and as a professor of transport strategy I do rather wonder if the modes of transport we use today will still be around by the turn of the next century. </p>
<p>Growing up, my favourite book was a children’s encyclopaedia first published in 1953. One double page spread featured an annotated cityscape, showing all aspects of the built environment – most of which we would still be familiar with now. The various modes of transport illustrated – trains, buses, lorries, taxis, motorcycles, bikes, pedestrians and private cars – still work together as a system in fundamentally the same ways. </p>
<p>But a whole range of possible (though not inevitable) societal and technological changes could revolutionise how we travel in the coming decades. These include large-scale responses to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/extinction-rebellions-car-free-streets-showcase-the-possibility-of-a-beautiful-safe-and-green-future-124924">climate change agenda</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-good-progress-100-low-carbon-energy-is-still-a-long-way-off-for-the-uk-114949">energy sourcing and security</a>; shifting <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-uk-population-will-look-like-by-2061-under-hard-soft-or-no-brexit-scenarios-117475">demographic trends</a> (such as growing numbers of elderly people); the development of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sharing-economy-could-end-capitalism-but-thats-not-all-45203">collaborative economy</a>; the growing use of <a href="https://theconversation.com/harvesting-big-data-could-bring-about-the-next-transport-revolution-right-now-77261">big data</a>; and the apparent inevitability of <a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-will-change-more-in-the-next-decade-than-they-have-in-the-past-century-113585">driverless cars</a>.</p>
<p>To examine what future urban transport systems might look like, I recently directed <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2018/11/apo-nid204596-1213736.pdf">a future-gazing project</a> for New Zealand’s Ministry of Transport exploring how people might be travelling in the year 2045. I helped develop four scenarios, along two axes of change. </p>
<p>The first axis considered automation – at one end, vehicles are still be driven much like today (partial automation). At the other, they’re driverless (full automation). The second axis related to how dense cities could become – one future where the population is more dispersed (like Los Angeles) and another where it is concentrated at a higher density (more like Hong Kong). With these axes in mind, I generated four possible futures for public transport, which could play out in cities across the world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Choose your fighter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marcus Enoch.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Shared shuttles</h2>
<p>In the “shared shuttle” city, demand responsive minibuses, Uber-style taxis and micro-modes – such as shared bicycles, electric bikes and hoverboards – to cover the <a href="https://medium.com/the-stigo-blog/the-last-mile-the-term-the-problem-and-the-odd-solutions-28b6969d5af8">“last mile”</a> to your destination are widespread. Hiring these different forms of transport is simple, thanks to seamless booking and payment systems and a thriving entrepreneurial spirit among a range of commercial, social and government transport providers. Meanwhile, new environmental regulations mean that owning a car is more expensive than it used to be, and private vehicles are restricted to the suburbs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Autonomous shuttle testing takes place in La Défense, Paris, France.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/la-france-september-22-2017-autonomous-721586557?src=4c5ad0f7-127e-4e21-902c-9589e16eb669-2-33">Sebastien Durand/Shutterstock.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Flexibility is a core feature of this scenario, with vehicles and services that adjust to the needs of individuals, and with how the space continually adapts to meet the needs of the city as a whole. There’s also a collaborative ethos, reinforced by the development of a more compact and high-density city, while progress toward full automation has been slow because of safety and privacy concerns.</p>
<h2>2. Mobility market</h2>
<p>Private cars still dominate urban transport in the mobility market scenario. Many citizens live and often work in dispersed, low-density suburban areas, since city-centre housing became too expensive for most to afford. Fewer people walk and cycle, because of the long distances involved. And the use of public transport has declined, since less dense transport networks mean there are fewer viable routes, though a limited network of automated trains and buses is still used for trips to the city centre. </p>
<p>Car use has fallen somewhat since the 2010s, because “active management” measures – such as pre-bookable fast lanes and tolls – are now necessary to control congestion, despite the completion of a sizeable road building programme in the recent past. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pooling resources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/autonomous-wireless-remote-connected-car-sharing-1421292086?src=0a6d1fff-e98f-435a-b20a-c212a908f828-4-79">Petovarga/Shutterstock.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Instead, commercially provided pre-paid personalised “mobility packages” are helping to stimulate the use of a whole range of shared mobility options, such as car-pooling, bike hire and air taxi schemes. These now account for around a quarter of all journeys.</p>
<h2>3. Connected corridors</h2>
<p>Society in this high-tech, highly urbanised world of connected corridors is characterised by perceptive but obedient citizens who trade access to their personal data in return for being able to use an extremely efficient transport system. Physically switching between different services or even different modes of travel is hassle free, thanks to well designed interchange points, and fully integrated timetabling, ticketing and information systems.</p>
<p>For instance, travellers might walk, e-cycle or take a demand-responsive minibus to a main route interchange, then board a high frequency rail service to get across town and finally take a shared autonomous taxi to their destination. Each will be guided by a personalised, all-knowing “travel ambassador” app on their smartphone or embedded chip, which will minimise overall travel times or maybe maximise sightseeing opportunities, according to their preferences. </p>
<p>Private cars are not really needed. People trust technology to deliver inexpensive and secure transport services and appreciate living close to work, family and friends.</p>
<h2>4. Plentiful pods</h2>
<p>In this future, fleets of variously-sized <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2015.1024646">driverless pods</a> now provide around three-quarters of those journeys that still need to be taken across the low-density, high-tech city. These pods having largely replaced most existing public transport services, and the vast majority of privately-owned cars. </p>
<p>People do still walk or cycle for some shorter trips. But pods are so convenient, providing affordable point-to-point journeys for those not satisfied by virtual interactions. Passengers can pay even less, if they agree to share with others. Pods are also fully connected to the internet, and are priced and tailored to meet customer needs. Ultimately, pods give people the freedom to work, learn or live where the weather is best or the houses are cheapest.</p>
<p>My research did not pass judgement as to which scenario should be pursued. But it did conclude that public transport will need to evolve to meet future challenges, and that the role of government will still be of key importance going forward, no matter which path is chosen. Personally though, if forced to choose, I think I’d favour a shared shuttle future more than the others - it just seems more sociable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcus Enoch was employed part-time as a Strategy Director for the duration of the PT2045 project by the New Zealand Ministry of Transport, and this article draws on data and insights gathered and derived during that period. </span></em></p>A whole range of social and technological changes could revolutionise how we travel in the coming decades.Marcus Enoch, Professor in Transport Strategy, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1258742019-11-03T18:54:58Z2019-11-03T18:54:58ZHow we feel about our cars means the road to a driverless future may not be smooth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299369/original/file-20191030-138168-hq8p3r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Car owners' attachment to driving and the willingness of others to switch from public transport could confound rosy predictions for autonomous vehicles.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/adelaide-south-australia-july-27-2019-1466462240?src=srX7g0tCsTO2lfuw4YzG9Q-1-15">Steven Giles/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a reasonable expectation that autonomous vehicles will dominate the future of transport. Utopian visions suggest these driverless vehicles will lead to dramatic changes to our cities and their transportation. </p>
<p>Autonomous vehicles operating on a network would allow traffic to move safely and seamlessly through cities. They would use less space per vehicle. Traffic flow would be unhindered by traffic lights or other traditional driver signals. </p>
<p>More efficient transportation would use less fuel. Urban spaces could be repurposed as parking needs virtually disappear.</p>
<p>But this utopian vision depends on a range of factors. In particular, these predictions largely rely on how current car drivers respond to the advent of autonomous vehicles. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Our research</a> suggests people’s attitudes to driving and their cars could limit the predicted benefits to traffic flow and city efficiency, at least during the initial transition to driverless vehicles. </p>
<h2>What did the research look at?</h2>
<p>The research uses the city of Adelaide as a test case. We surveyed commuter preferences for the acceptance and use of driverless vehicles, as compared with their current preferences. </p>
<p>We then developed two scenarios. One is for the medium to long term, when vehicles are fully autonomous. The other is for the short-term transitional phase, during which a mix of conventional and driverless vehicles share the roads. </p>
<p>Using traffic-flow data for Adelaide, we analysed the implications of a shift towards driverless vehicles for: </p>
<ul>
<li>traffic flow</li>
<li>the number of vehicles needed to service commuter demands</li>
<li>parking</li>
<li>broader land use in the city centre.</li>
</ul>
<p>Adelaide is unusual, as a result of its <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/18907622?q&versionId=45120027">history as a planned city</a>, in having a discrete number of entry and exit points. This allows us to map more accurately average daily traffic flows into and out of the city centre. </p>
<p>Our analysis focuses on three of the city’s gateways, as shown below. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The three Adelaide city gateways analysed for the research.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We measured flows through these intersections on a typical day. Using minute-by-minute real-time data, monitored at traffic signals, we created a picture of typical traffic flows into and out of the CBD. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traffic flows at gateway site into and out of Adelaide city (Unley Rd/South Terrace).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adelaide City Council</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also surveyed commuters to discern their current transport preferences versus their perceptions of the hypothetical future. </p>
<p>Combining this information, we then describe possible outcomes of the transition to automated vehicles.</p>
<h2>What did the survey find?</h2>
<p>Below is a summary of the survey of a representative sample of 526 regular commuters into the Adelaide CBD.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Data: How Might Autonomous Vehicles Impact the City?</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We queried respondents’ willingness to carshare by taking advantage of common knowledge of real-world company Uber. </p>
<p>We also investigated respondents’ attitudes by positing a scenario in which driverless vehicles are the norm and conventional driving is a luxury. We assessed likely resistance to autonomous vehicles by considering their willingness to pay to continue to drive traditional vehicles in this scenario. </p>
<p>Key results are shown below. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Data: How Might Autonomous Vehicles Impact the City?</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Attitudes and costs will shape transition</h2>
<p>Two observations flow from the responses. </p>
<p>First, it seems likely drivers’ prevailing attitudes to vehicle ownership may be influencing their attitudes to autonomous vehicles. For many, their car represents a status symbol. They feel a strong personal attachment to it.</p>
<p>Second, cost may be a crucial factor in take-up of driverless vehicles. As costs fall, most commuters might bow to financial pressure to shift to autonomous vehicles. However, a minority might lobby to keep a mix of driverless and conventional vehicles on the road.</p>
<p>Our analysis suggests Adelaide could reduce its current vehicle fleet by as much as 76% in the utopian driverless future. This is due to current high car dependence and long commuting times and distances at peak periods. </p>
<p>Yet some predicted benefits, notably the very large reduction in vehicle numbers and better traffic flows, might not be achieved in the near to medium term. This is due to uncertainty about how the transition to a totally driverless city will be achieved and how long it will take. </p>
<p>Key factors are commuter attitudes to driving and autonomous vehicles, the price of the technology, and consumer attitudes to car sharing. Attitudes to car ownership and driving appear to be central to how the transition will play out. </p>
<p>The survey suggests the pleasure of driving themselves, which a substantial minority of Adelaide drivers are unwilling to forgo, could limit the benefits that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2018.1466835">much of the academic literature</a> optimistically predicts. </p>
<p>Public transport may also be adversely affected as riders switch to driverlesss vehicles. This shift could increase vehicle flows in peak periods, making congestion worse during the transition to complete adoption. </p>
<p>We support the <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-vehicles-could-bring-out-the-best-or-worst-in-our-cities-by-transforming-land-use-84127">oft-suggested</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/utopia-or-nightmare-the-answer-lies-in-how-we-embrace-self-driving-electric-and-shared-vehicles-90920">argument</a> that large-scale adoption of driverless vehicles risks stimulating an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-driverless-vehicles-should-not-be-given-unchecked-access-to-our-cities-102724">increase in urban sprawl</a>. In the city centre, parking demand is likely to reduce greatly, allowing more diverse land uses and intensification of economic activity. But parking outside the CBD might increase, as driverless vehicles need not park near their users’ or owners’ workplace, at the expense of amenity. </p>
<p>Our analysis strongly suggests urban policy will be needed to counter the potential negative effects of introducing driverless vehicles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raul A. Barreto does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scenarios based on a survey of Adelaide commuters and analyses of traffic flows show it’s possible the congestion could get worse in the transition to driverless vehicles.Raul A. Barreto, Senior Lecturer, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1248952019-10-21T18:59:49Z2019-10-21T18:59:49ZTo bolster our fragile road and rail system we need to add a ‘micro-mobility’ network<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297601/original/file-20191017-98648-4zwr4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2761%2C1769&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In cities like Copenhagen that have good infrastructure for cycling it's an established commuting option alongside road and rail.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cyclists_at_red_2.jpg">Heb/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We all know the feeling. You’re on your way to an important appointment when disaster strikes. A glitch in the transport matrix leaves you <a href="https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-11/sydney-train-delays-after-signal-failure/11592818?pfmredir=sm&sf221276741=1">waiting for a train that never arrives</a>, or in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sydney-melbourne-coming-to-a-standstill-as-infrastructure-struggles-20190812-p52g9n.html">bumper-to-bumper traffic</a> with little chance of making it to your destination on time. If you are like me, you may wonder: why are our transport systems so fragile, and how could we make them more resilient? </p>
<p>The answer may lie in the infrastructure we provide for the <a href="https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/micromobility-revolution/">emerging trend of micro-mobility</a> – devices that are small, light and usually electric-powered. Greater investment in a micro-mobility network could improve the reliability of our current transport system, which offers two main networks in road and rail for journeys that are not walkable. This micro-mobility network can be developed by greatly improving the fragmented bicycle networks in our cities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/banning-tiny-vehicles-would-deny-us-smarter-ways-to-get-around-our-cities-113111">Banning 'tiny vehicles' would deny us smarter ways to get around our cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To understand how this could improve our overall transport system, we must first look at how transport projects are funded and how diversification and redundancy can make up for shortcomings in this process. </p>
<h2>Selecting the best transport projects</h2>
<p>When deciding which projects to build, transport agencies rank projects using a benefit-cost ratio (BCR). This number is the predicted benefits of a project divided by the predicted costs. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, benefit-cost ratios are often <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-restore-the-publics-faith-in-transport-planning-73684">misused to suit political motives</a>. They are inherently flawed and uncertain for at least three reasons:</p>
<ol>
<li>modelling often <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-drivers-are-likely-to-use-westconnex-than-predicted-38286">miscalculates future traffic volumes</a></li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/modelling-for-major-road-projects-is-at-odds-with-driver-behaviour-63603">inaccurate assumptions are used</a> to estimate the dollar value of costs and benefits</li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/a-closer-look-at-business-cases-raises-questions-about-priority-national-infrastructure-projects-94489">many uncertain costs and benefits are simply ignored</a>.<br></li>
</ol>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-restore-the-publics-faith-in-transport-planning-73684">How do we restore the public's faith in transport planning?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Reducing investment risk through diversification</h2>
<p>In the financial sector, uncertainty is simply a risk to be managed. This can be done with diversification, which is achieved by bundling different assets into a portfolio. For example, bundling shares from different industries reduces the risk that these “diverse” investments will all suffer losses at the same time.</p>
<p>Similarly, investing in a variety of transport modes is a form of diversification. This makes our transport systems more resilient to long-term changes in the economy, the climate, technology, energy and so on. For example, a transport system that provides alternatives to car travel is resilient to increases in the price of fuel or the cost of emissions.</p>
<p>Transport diversification reduces investment risk, so we are likely to get a more stable return on our transport investment. But diversification alone does not prevent a traffic accident blocking a motorway, or a power outage shutting down a railway line. </p>
<p>To tackle those problems, we should consider approaches the technology sector has been using to manage component failures for decades. It can provide <a href="https://aws.amazon.com/about-aws/whats-new/2019/01/amazon-ecr-announces-99-9--service-level-agreement/">services with 99.9% availability</a>. That would be quite an achievement for the transport network! </p>
<h2>Managing component failure using redundancy</h2>
<p>The technology sector uses redundancy to ensure service is maintained even when one part of the system fails. IT managers keep local and cloud backups so data can be retrieved even if the office burns to the ground. Aircraft designers install multiple flight control systems so the failure of a single system does not cause a crash.</p>
<p>In the transport sector, redundancy is achieved when several modes can be used to make the same journey. While the technology sector can offer redundancy through duplicate systems, providing a duplicate train line “just in case” the first one fails is simply too costly. Instead, we rely on the train network to move people when a road crash halts traffic and we rely on the road network to move people when a train line is closed.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, Australian transport networks do not offer enough capacity or alternatives when one mode is crippled. The predictable result is a fragile transport system with unplanned but not entirely unexpected faults causing frequent delays.</p>
<h2>Tapping into micro-mobility solutions</h2>
<p>A new wave of mobility solutions is on the horizon. Many are described as “micro-mobility”: electric scooters, electric bicycles and automated delivery pods fit this description, as do conventional bicycles. </p>
<p>These devices are perfect for short trips in crowded cities. They are used for individual mobility and micro-freight (such as small packages and takeaway food).</p>
<p>These devices travel faster than pedestrians, so can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-scooters-on-collision-course-with-pedestrians-and-lawmakers-99654">unwanted on footpaths</a>. However, they are slower than motor vehicles, so can be unwanted on roadways. And as people using micro-mobility devices are <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-the-rise-in-cycling-injuries-and-deaths-in-australia-116660">not protected from collisions</a>, they are often reluctant to mix with motor vehicle traffic. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/limes-not-lemons-lessons-from-australias-first-e-scooter-sharing-trial-108924">Limes not lemons: lessons from Australia’s first e-scooter sharing trial</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The logical place for micro-mobility devices is on a network that is designed for unprotected humans to travel at around 10-30km/h. In other words, the bicycle network.</p>
<h2>The benefits of a bicycle (or “micro-mobility”) network</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/cutting-cycling-funding-is-economic-non-sense-7547">evidence for investment in bicycle infrastructure is strong</a>. It has the benefits of tackling big challenges including obesity, emissions and traffic congestion. </p>
<p>This article highlights three additional benefits that are not included in traditional benefit-cost ratio analysis:</p>
<ol>
<li>providing a bicycle network increases transport diversification and therefore minimises investment risk</li>
<li>a bicycle network provides redundancy to keep the transport system functioning when other networks fail </li>
<li>bicycle networks support the emerging micro-mobility market.</li>
</ol>
<p>However, investment in bicycle networks in Australia has been miniscule for decades. For example, in 2015-16, <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2018/files/infrastructure-statistics-yearbook-2018-booklet.pdf">A$25.1 billion was invested in roads</a> and <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2018/yearbook_2018.aspx">A$8.7 billion in rail</a>. But only <a href="http://www.bicyclecouncil.com.au/publication/national-cycling-strategy-implementation-report-2016">A$121.8 million was spent on the bicycle network</a> – just 0.36% of transport infrastructure spending, or A$5.27 per capita.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The bicycle networks in Australian cities are therefore fragmented and incomplete, as seen below in the map of Sydney.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sydney bicycle network.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/dataset/cycleway-data">Author using Transport for NSW data</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Without a functioning bicycle network, the overall transport system is susceptible to investment risk and network failure. We will also be left behind as micro-mobility options proliferate and our transport system becomes less and less fit for purpose.</p>
<p>So let’s build a comprehensive bicycle network fit for scooters, delivery pods, bicycles and more, and let’s do it quick smart.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124895/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Arnold has done work for Transport for NSW and other government agencies through his transport consultancy, Transportology. </span></em></p>A breakdown in the road or rail systems often causes commuter chaos in Australia. Some overseas cities are more resilient because they have other options – and our bicycle network could give us that.Tony Arnold, PhD Candidate, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1221302019-09-01T19:48:58Z2019-09-01T19:48:58ZFlexible working, the neglected congestion-busting solution for our cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290018/original/file-20190829-184196-16zkxh5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5130%2C2748&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If more of us were free to work from home, fewer of us would be stuck in traffic.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daria Chichkareva, fkigali/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/traffic-congestion">Traffic congestion</a> is one of the most significant challenges facing our cities. Melbourne’s population is growing by around <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/PrimaryMainFeatures/3218.0?OpenDocument">325 people a day</a> and is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/booming-melbourne-to-become-nation-s-largest-city-by-2026-20190327-p5186v.html">projected to overtake Sydney’s</a> within a decade. <a href="https://www.aaa.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/AAA-Congestion-Report-2018-FINAL.pdf">Identified as the most congested city in the country</a>, this was a factor in Melbourne <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/nation/melbourne-loses-title-of-most-liveable-city/news-story/f5145850143b5801db36c75ed7d73133">losing its seven-year grip on the “world’s most liveable city” title</a> last year.</p>
<p>One obvious solution to traffic congestion, caused mostly by workers commuting to jobs in the city centre during peak hours, might appear to be building more, or bigger, roads. But a less obvious answer, and potentially a more cost-effective one, might be to increase flexible working arrangements. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162518301549">Our research</a> has looked into ways to ease congestion by reducing the need for travel in congested areas in the first place. It shows city workers definitely have an appetite for flexible work hours and practices. </p>
<p>However, many (36%) still can’t or don’t work remotely. Those who do work remotely do so for a small fraction of the week – 1.1 days on average – even though a high percentage of their work tasks can be done anywhere.</p>
<h2>More roads don’t solve the problem</h2>
<p>Traditionally, congestion has simply been accepted as the starting point, with infrastructure being built to accommodate it. However, as a report on <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w15376">US research</a> findings about so-called induced demand <a href="https://www.wired.com/2014/06/wuwt-traffic-induced-demand/">explains</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>If you expand people’s ability to travel, they will do it more. […] Making driving easier means that people take more trips in the car than they otherwise would.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This increase in travel uses up any extra capacity improved infrastructure might bring. As a result, <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w15376">traffic levels and congestion remain constant</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-08/Urban%20Transport%20Crowding%20and%20Congestion.pdf">2019 report</a> from Infrastructure Australia observes that the huge number of road and rail projects in Sydney and Melbourne, both current and planned, will not prevent crippling congestion by 2031.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/do-more-roads-really-mean-less-congestion-for-commuters-39508">Do more roads really mean less congestion for commuters?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What did the flexible working study find?</h2>
<p>This issue was the motivation for our study into alternative ways to ease congestion. It identified flexible working as one possible solution. </p>
<p>The term <a href="https://www.fairwork.gov.au/employee-entitlements/flexibility-in-the-workplace/flexible-working-arrangements">flexible working</a> refers to arrangements that enable employees to adjust the number of hours they work, the pattern of those hours, or where they work. Flexible working has risen significantly in recent years, with many potential <a href="https://fortune.com/2019/02/20/four-day-work-week-research-benefits/">benefits</a> for both <a href="https://www.recruitment-international.com.au/blog/2018/06/73-percent-of-australian-employees-value-flexible-working-hays-reveals">employees</a> and <a href="https://employsure.com.au/blog/rewarding-retaining-employees-flexible-work-arrangements/">employers</a>. Yet few studies have examined its potential to reduce traffic congestion. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/working-four-day-weeks-for-five-days-pay-research-shows-it-pays-off-100375">Working four-day weeks for five days' pay? Research shows it pays off</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162518301549">study</a>, we surveyed 263 city workers from ten of Melbourne’s biggest employers. We asked them about their commuting habits, existing flexible working arrangements, attitudes toward flexible working and the nature of their work tasks. </p>
<p>We found 64% of workers were already taking advantage of some sort of flexible working arrangements that allowed them to work from a remote location, usually at home, an average of 1.1 days a week. And 83% of them either “liked” or “loved” the ability to do this. </p>
<p>Only 2% said none of their work could be performed from an alternative location. A majority of participants, 58%, indicated they could do at least half their work duties out of the office. Some 30% of the workers indicated 80% or more of their work duties could be performed remotely.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288868/original/file-20190821-170951-a5jci6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288868/original/file-20190821-170951-a5jci6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288868/original/file-20190821-170951-a5jci6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288868/original/file-20190821-170951-a5jci6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288868/original/file-20190821-170951-a5jci6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288868/original/file-20190821-170951-a5jci6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288868/original/file-20190821-170951-a5jci6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288868/original/file-20190821-170951-a5jci6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Breakdown of participants in flexible working survey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162518301549">Author's research</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Technology enables these flexible working opportunities. Laptops, smartphones, high-speed internet and cloud access were highlighted as the must-haves for remote working. </p>
<p>Many of us no longer need to travel to a fixed location to work because the tools of our labour are located there. The tools of our labour are now in our back pockets or work satchels. </p>
<h2>Finland shows what’s possible</h2>
<p>Urban congestion is a growing problem worldwide. Today, <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html">55% of people live in urban areas, a figure expected to reach 68% by 2050</a>. The use of motor vehicles is also growing rapidly. </p>
<p>But access to flexible working is growing around the world too. </p>
<p>Finland, a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20190807-why-finland-leads-the-world-in-flexible-work">pioneer of flexible working practices</a>, recently adopted a new <a href="https://nordiclaw.fi/new-working-hours-act-of-finland-enters-into-force-1-january-2020/">Working Hours Act</a>. It will give a majority of full-time employees the right to decide when and where they work for at least half of their working hours. </p>
<p>A similar flexible working bill was introduced to the UK Parliament in July by Conservative MP Helen Whately. She <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49003413">said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The 40-hour, five-day working week made sense in an era of single-earner households and stay-at-home mums, but it no longer reflects the reality of how many modern families want to live their lives.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162518301549">evidence from Melbourne suggests</a> the appetite for, and availability of, flexible working will continue to increase as more people do it and more millennials take up leadership roles. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290005/original/file-20190829-184234-ircnwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290005/original/file-20190829-184234-ircnwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290005/original/file-20190829-184234-ircnwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=614&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290005/original/file-20190829-184234-ircnwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=614&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290005/original/file-20190829-184234-ircnwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=614&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290005/original/file-20190829-184234-ircnwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=772&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290005/original/file-20190829-184234-ircnwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=772&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290005/original/file-20190829-184234-ircnwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=772&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A small reduction in peak-hour commuter numbers could make the difference between being able to squeeze onto a train or not.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/14027144@N00/94288580">Runs With Scissors/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the 64% of workers who now work remotely 1.1 days a week increased this to five days a fortnight, this could cut the number of daily commuters to Melbourne from <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2011/files/report_125.pdf">572,000</a> to 440,500 a day. If the remaining 36% of workers were also able to work remotely 50% of the time, daily commuter numbers would fall further to around 337,500, a total reduction of 41%. </p>
<p>Even much smaller reductions in commuter numbers could have significant impacts on congestion. An <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/DBAssets/InquirySubmission/Summary/52831/Sub13%20NRMA.pdf">NRMA submission</a> that advocated flexible working hours and practices to a 2013 NSW parliamentary inquiry noted: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>As a rule of thumb, when traffic on congested roads reduces by 5%, traffic speeds increase 50% (even if this only means going from 20 to 30km/h) […] A small reduction in the amount of passengers during peak hours can sometimes make the difference between being able to squeeze onto a bus or train, or not.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In this era of growing urban congestion, an increase in flexible working practices appears to have serious potential for easing the strain on our roads and transport networks. Isn’t it about time we asked ourselves if we could all be a bit more flexible?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122130/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John L Hopkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two-thirds of surveyed workers work from home one day a week on average, but could do at least half their work out of the workplace. If they commuted less often, congestion could be greatly reduced.John L Hopkins, Theme Leader (Future Urban Mobility), Smart Cities Research Institute, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.